Hirsch index and truth survival in clinical research.

PubMed

Poynard, Thierry; Thabut, Dominique; Munteanu, Mona; Ratziu, Vlad; Benhamou, Yves; Deckmyn, Olivier

2010-08-06

Factors associated with the survival of truth of clinical conclusions in the medical literature are unknown. We hypothesized that publications with a first author having a higher Hirsch' index value (h-I), which quantifies and predicts an individual's scientific research output, should have a longer half-life. 474 original articles concerning cirrhosis or hepatitis published from 1945 to 1999 were selected. The survivals of the main conclusions were updated in 2009. The truth survival was assessed by time-dependent methods (Kaplan Meier method and Cox). A conclusion was considered to be true, obsolete or false when three or more observers out of the six stated it to be so. 284 out of 474 conclusions (60%) were still considered true, 90 (19%) were considered obsolete and 100 (21%) false. The median of the h-I was=24 (range 1-85). Authors with true conclusions had significantly higher h-I (median=28) than those with obsolete (h-I=19; P=0.002) or false conclusions (h-I=19; P=0.01). The factors associated (P<0.0001) with h-I were: scientific life (h-I=33 for>30 years vs. 16 for<30 years), -methodological quality score (h-I=36 for high vs. 20 for low scores), and -positive predictive value combining power, ratio of true to not-true relationships and bias (h-I=33 for high vs. 20 for low values). In multivariate analysis, the risk ratio of h-I was 1.003 (95%CI, 0.994-1.011), and was not significant (P=0.56). In a subgroup restricted to 111 articles with a negative conclusion, we observed a significant independent prognostic value of h-I (risk ratio=1.033; 95%CI, 1.008-1.059; P=0.009). Using an extrapolation of h-I at the time of article publication there was a significant and independent prognostic value of baseline h-I (risk ratio=0.027; P=0.0001). The present study failed to clearly demonstrate that the h-index of authors was a prognostic factor for truth survival. However the h-index was associated with true conclusions, methodological quality of trials and positive predictive values.

Wind Power Curve Modeling in Simple and Complex Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bulaevskaya, V.; Wharton, S.; Irons, Z.

2015-02-09

Our previous work on wind power curve modeling using statistical models focused on a location with a moderately complex terrain in the Altamont Pass region in northern California (CA). The work described here is the follow-up to that work, but at a location with a simple terrain in northern Oklahoma (OK). The goal of the present analysis was to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding information beyond the hub-height wind speed, such as wind speeds at other heights, as well as other atmospheric variables, to the power prediction model at this new location and compare the resultsmore » to those obtained at the CA site in the previous study. While we reach some of the same conclusions at both sites, many results reported for the CA site do not hold at the OK site. In particular, using the entire vertical profile of wind speeds improves the accuracy of wind power prediction relative to using the hub-height wind speed alone at both sites. However, in contrast to the CA site, the rotor equivalent wind speed (REWS) performs almost as well as the entire profile at the OK site. Another difference is that at the CA site, adding wind veer as a predictor significantly improved the power prediction accuracy. The same was true for that site when air density was added to the model separately instead of using the standard air density adjustment. At the OK site, these additional variables result in no significant benefit for the prediction accuracy.« less

Development of a Constitutive Equation for HSLA (High-Strength Low- Alloy)-100 at Cryogenic Temperatures

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-01

temperatur The Holloncn Power Equation and the VocE. Equation are used tý) describe the true stress;’true strain behavior to failure of individual tests...Hollomon Power Equation (a= Kcn) and the Voce Equation (c=G -[O -ao1exp[-E!A]) are used to describe the true stress / true strain behavior to failure of...6 8 A. MODIFICATIONS/ IMPROVEMENTS IN THE USE OF THE VOCE

Viability of long range dragonfly migration across the Indian Ocean: An energetics perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Sandeep; Nirwal, Satvik

2016-11-01

Recently Pantala flavescens (dragonflies) have been reported to migrate in millions from India to Eastern Africa on a multigenerational migratory circuit of length 14000-18000 kms. We attempt to understand the ability of dragonflies to perform long range migration by examining the energetics using computer simulations. In absence of a theory for long range insect migrations, we resort to the extensive literature on long range bird migration from the energetics perspective. The flight energetics depends upon instantaneous power and velocity. The mechanical flight power is computed from the power curve which is then converted to mass depletion using Brequet's equation. However, the mechanical flight power itself depends upon the instantaneous velocity which can vary depending upon the current mass. In order to predict the range in our simulations, we assume that the insect progressively tries to achieve the maximum range velocity. The results indicate that the migration range is approximately 1260 kms in 70 hours based on the true airspeed. However, our analysis is restricted by the lack of data and certain caveats in drag prediction and basal metabolism rate.

Prediction of the true digestible amino acid contents from the chemical composition of sorghum grain for poultry.

PubMed

Ebadi, M R; Sedghi, M; Golian, A; Ahmadi, H

2011-10-01

Accurate knowledge of true digestible amino acid (TDAA) contents of feedstuffs is necessary to accurately formulate poultry diets for profitable production. Several experimental approaches that are highly expensive and time consuming have been used to determine available amino acids. Prediction of the nutritive value of a feed ingredient from its chemical composition via regression methodology has been attempted for many years. The artificial neural network (ANN) model is a powerful method that may describe the relationship between digestible amino acid contents and chemical composition. Therefore, multiple linear regressions (MLR) and ANN models were developed for predicting the TDAA contents of sorghum grain based on chemical composition. A precision-fed assay trial using cecectomized roosters was performed to determine the TDAA contents in 48 sorghum samples from 12 sorghum varieties differing in chemical composition. The input variables for both MLR and ANN models were CP, ash, crude fiber, ether extract, and total phenols whereas the output variable was each individual TDAA for every sample. The results of this study revealed that it is possible to satisfactorily estimate the TDAA of sorghum grain through its chemical composition. The chemical composition of sorghum grain seems to highly influence the TDAA contents when considering components such as CP, crude fiber, ether extract, ash and total phenols. It is also possible to estimate the TDAA contents through multiple regression equations with reasonable accuracy depending on composition. However, a more satisfactory prediction may be achieved via ANN for all amino acids. The R(2) values for the ANN model corresponding to testing and training parameters showed a higher accuracy of prediction than equations established by the MLR method. In addition, the current data confirmed that chemical composition, often considered in total amino acid prediction, could be also a useful predictor of true digestible values of selected amino acids for poultry.

The Pattern of Soviet Conduct in the Third World, Review and Preview. Part I

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-03-07

vital raw materials is concerned. This interest relates however above all to the rich, oil -producing countries, whereas the East German and Cuban...was economic - the extraction of cheap raw materials and the wish to find markets. Nor is it true, as he predicted, that the. imperialist powers...disappointment in the non- oil producing Third World countries than should have been expected because the Soviet leaders never made excessive. promises. They

Relations between perceptual and conceptual scope: how global versus local processing fits a focus on similarity versus dissimilarity.

PubMed

Förster, Jens

2009-02-01

Nine studies showed a bidirectional link (a) between a global processing style and generation of similarities and (b) between a local processing style and generation of dissimilarities. In Experiments 1-4, participants were primed with global versus local perception styles and then asked to work on an allegedly unrelated generation task. Across materials, participants generated more similarities than dissimilarities after global priming, whereas for participants with local priming, the opposite was true. Experiments 5-6 demonstrated a bidirectional link whereby participants who were first instructed to search for similarities attended more to the gestalt of a stimulus than to its details, whereas the reverse was true for those who were initially instructed to search for dissimilarities. Because important psychological variables are correlated with processing styles, in Experiments 7-9, temporal distance, a promotion focus, and high power were predicted and shown to enhance the search for similarities, whereas temporal proximity, a prevention focus, and low power enhanced the search for dissimilarities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

A constructivist connectionist model of transitions on false-belief tasks.

PubMed

Berthiaume, Vincent G; Shultz, Thomas R; Onishi, Kristine H

2013-03-01

How do children come to understand that others have mental representations, e.g., of an object's location? Preschoolers go through two transitions on verbal false-belief tasks, in which they have to predict where an agent will search for an object that was moved in her absence. First, while three-and-a-half-year-olds usually fail at approach tasks, in which the agent wants to find the object, children just under four succeed. Second, only after four do children succeed at tasks in which the agent wants to avoid the object. We present a constructivist connectionist model that autonomously reproduces the two transitions and suggests that the transitions are due to increases in general processing abilities enabling children to (1) overcome a default true-belief attribution by distinguishing false- from true-belief situations, and to (2) predict search in avoidance situations, where there is often more than one correct, empty search location. Constructivist connectionist models are rigorous, flexible and powerful tools that can be analyzed before and after transitions to uncover novel and emergent mechanisms of cognitive development. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pairwise Maximum Entropy Models for Studying Large Biological Systems: When They Can Work and When They Can't

PubMed Central

Roudi, Yasser; Nirenberg, Sheila; Latham, Peter E.

2009-01-01

One of the most critical problems we face in the study of biological systems is building accurate statistical descriptions of them. This problem has been particularly challenging because biological systems typically contain large numbers of interacting elements, which precludes the use of standard brute force approaches. Recently, though, several groups have reported that there may be an alternate strategy. The reports show that reliable statistical models can be built without knowledge of all the interactions in a system; instead, pairwise interactions can suffice. These findings, however, are based on the analysis of small subsystems. Here, we ask whether the observations will generalize to systems of realistic size, that is, whether pairwise models will provide reliable descriptions of true biological systems. Our results show that, in most cases, they will not. The reason is that there is a crossover in the predictive power of pairwise models: If the size of the subsystem is below the crossover point, then the results have no predictive power for large systems. If the size is above the crossover point, then the results may have predictive power. This work thus provides a general framework for determining the extent to which pairwise models can be used to predict the behavior of large biological systems. Applied to neural data, the size of most systems studied so far is below the crossover point. PMID:19424487

Flight test evaluation of predicted light aircraft drag, performance, and stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smetana, F. O.; Fox, S. R.

1979-01-01

A technique was developed which permits simultaneous extraction of complete lift, drag, and thrust power curves from time histories of a single aircraft maneuver such as a pullup (from V sub max to V sub stall) and pushover (to sub V max for level flight.) The technique is an extension to non-linear equations of motion of the parameter identification methods of lliff and Taylor and includes provisions for internal data compatibility improvement as well. The technique was show to be capable of correcting random errors in the most sensitive data channel and yielding highly accurate results. This technique was applied to flight data taken on the ATLIT aircraft. The drag and power values obtained from the initial least squares estimate are about 15% less than the 'true' values. If one takes into account the rather dirty wing and fuselage existing at the time of the tests, however, the predictions are reasonably accurate. The steady state lift measurements agree well with the extracted values only for small values of alpha. The predicted value of the lift at alpha = 0 is about 33% below that found in steady state tests while the predicted lift slope is 13% below the steady state value.

The power to detect linkage in complex disease by means of simple LOD-score analyses.

PubMed Central

Greenberg, D A; Abreu, P; Hodge, S E

1998-01-01

Maximum-likelihood analysis (via LOD score) provides the most powerful method for finding linkage when the mode of inheritance (MOI) is known. However, because one must assume an MOI, the application of LOD-score analysis to complex disease has been questioned. Although it is known that one can legitimately maximize the maximum LOD score with respect to genetic parameters, this approach raises three concerns: (1) multiple testing, (2) effect on power to detect linkage, and (3) adequacy of the approximate MOI for the true MOI. We evaluated the power of LOD scores to detect linkage when the true MOI was complex but a LOD score analysis assumed simple models. We simulated data from 14 different genetic models, including dominant and recessive at high (80%) and low (20%) penetrances, intermediate models, and several additive two-locus models. We calculated LOD scores by assuming two simple models, dominant and recessive, each with 50% penetrance, then took the higher of the two LOD scores as the raw test statistic and corrected for multiple tests. We call this test statistic "MMLS-C." We found that the ELODs for MMLS-C are >=80% of the ELOD under the true model when the ELOD for the true model is >=3. Similarly, the power to reach a given LOD score was usually >=80% that of the true model, when the power under the true model was >=60%. These results underscore that a critical factor in LOD-score analysis is the MOI at the linked locus, not that of the disease or trait per se. Thus, a limited set of simple genetic models in LOD-score analysis can work well in testing for linkage. PMID:9718328

The power to detect linkage in complex disease by means of simple LOD-score analyses.

PubMed

Greenberg, D A; Abreu, P; Hodge, S E

1998-09-01

Maximum-likelihood analysis (via LOD score) provides the most powerful method for finding linkage when the mode of inheritance (MOI) is known. However, because one must assume an MOI, the application of LOD-score analysis to complex disease has been questioned. Although it is known that one can legitimately maximize the maximum LOD score with respect to genetic parameters, this approach raises three concerns: (1) multiple testing, (2) effect on power to detect linkage, and (3) adequacy of the approximate MOI for the true MOI. We evaluated the power of LOD scores to detect linkage when the true MOI was complex but a LOD score analysis assumed simple models. We simulated data from 14 different genetic models, including dominant and recessive at high (80%) and low (20%) penetrances, intermediate models, and several additive two-locus models. We calculated LOD scores by assuming two simple models, dominant and recessive, each with 50% penetrance, then took the higher of the two LOD scores as the raw test statistic and corrected for multiple tests. We call this test statistic "MMLS-C." We found that the ELODs for MMLS-C are >=80% of the ELOD under the true model when the ELOD for the true model is >=3. Similarly, the power to reach a given LOD score was usually >=80% that of the true model, when the power under the true model was >=60%. These results underscore that a critical factor in LOD-score analysis is the MOI at the linked locus, not that of the disease or trait per se. Thus, a limited set of simple genetic models in LOD-score analysis can work well in testing for linkage.

Project description and crowdfunding success: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Zhou, Mi Jamie; Lu, Baozhou; Fan, Weiguo Patrick; Wang, G Alan

2018-01-01

Existing research on antecedent of funding success mainly focuses on basic project properties such as funding goal, duration, and project category. In this study, we view the process by which project owners raise funds from backers as a persuasion process through project descriptions. Guided by the unimodel theory of persuasion, this study identifies three exemplary antecedents (length, readability, and tone) from the content of project descriptions and two antecedents (past experience and past expertise) from the trustworthy cue of project descriptions. We then investigate their impacts on funding success. Using data collected from Kickstarter, a popular crowdfunding platform, we find that these antecedents are significantly associated with funding success. Empirical results show that the proposed model that incorporated these antecedents can achieve an accuracy of 73 % (70 % in F-measure). The result represents an improvement of roughly 14 percentage points over the baseline model based on informed guessing and 4 percentage points improvement over the mainstream model based on basic project properties (or 44 % improvement of mainstream's performance over informed guessing). The proposed model also has superior true positive and true negative rates. We also investigate the timeliness of project data and find that old project data is gradually becoming less relevant and losing predictive power to newly created projects. Overall, this study provides evidence that antecedents identified from project descriptions have incremental predictive power and can help project owners evaluate and improve the likelihood of funding success.

Prediction of Cortical Defect Using C-Reactive Protein and Urine Sodium to Potassium Ratio in Infants with Febrile Urinary Tract Infection

PubMed Central

Jung, Su Jin

2016-01-01

Purpose We investigated whether C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, urine protein-creatinine ratio (uProt/Cr), and urine electrolytes can be useful for discriminating acute pyelonephritis (APN) from other febrile illnesses or the presence of a cortical defect on 99mTc dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) scanning (true APN) from its absence in infants with febrile urinary tract infection (UTI). Materials and Methods We examined 150 infants experiencing their first febrile UTI and 100 controls with other febrile illnesses consecutively admitted to our hospital from January 2010 to December 2012. Blood (CRP, electrolytes, Cr) and urine tests [uProt/Cr, electrolytes, and sodium-potassium ratio (uNa/K)] were performed upon admission. All infants with UTI underwent DMSA scans during admission. All data were compared between infants with UTI and controls and between infants with or without a cortical defect on DMSA scans. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, the ability of the parameters to predict true APN was analyzed. Results CRP levels and uProt/Cr were significantly higher in infants with true APN than in controls. uNa levels and uNa/K were significantly lower in infants with true APN than in controls. CRP levels and uNa/K were relevant factors for predicting true APN. The method using CRP levels, u-Prot/Cr, u-Na levels, and uNa/K had a sensitivity of 94%, specificity of 65%, positive predictive value of 60%, and negative predictive value of 95% for predicting true APN. Conclusion We conclude that these parameters are useful for discriminating APN from other febrile illnesses or discriminating true APN in infants with febrile UTI. PMID:26632389

Data mining of enzymes using specific peptides

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Predicting the function of a protein from its sequence is a long-standing challenge of bioinformatic research, typically addressed using either sequence-similarity or sequence-motifs. We employ the novel motif method that consists of Specific Peptides (SPs) that are unique to specific branches of the Enzyme Commission (EC) functional classification. We devise the Data Mining of Enzymes (DME) methodology that allows for searching SPs on arbitrary proteins, determining from its sequence whether a protein is an enzyme and what the enzyme's EC classification is. Results We extract novel SP sets from Swiss-Prot enzyme data. Using a training set of July 2006, and test sets of July 2008, we find that the predictive power of SPs, both for true-positives (enzymes) and true-negatives (non-enzymes), depends on the coverage length of all SP matches (the number of amino-acids matched on the protein sequence). DME is quite different from BLAST. Comparing the two on an enzyme test set of July 2008, we find that DME has lower recall. On the other hand, DME can provide predictions for proteins regarded by BLAST as having low homologies with known enzymes, thus supplying complementary information. We test our method on a set of proteins belonging to 10 bacteria, dated July 2008, establishing the usefulness of the coverage-length cutoff to determine true-negatives. Moreover, sifting through our predictions we find that some of them have been substantiated by Swiss-Prot annotations by July 2009. Finally we extract, for production purposes, a novel SP set trained on all Swiss-Prot enzymes as of July 2009. This new set increases considerably the recall of DME. The new SP set is being applied to three metagenomes: Sargasso Sea with over 1,000,000 proteins, producing predictions of over 220,000 enzymes, and two human gut metagenomes. The outcome of these analyses can be characterized by the enzymatic profile of the metagenomes, describing the relative numbers of enzymes observed for different EC categories. Conclusions Employing SPs for predicting enzymatic activity of proteins works well once one utilizes coverage-length criteria. In our analysis, L ≥ 7 has led to highly accurate results. PMID:20034383

Parameter Estimation for a Turbulent Buoyant Jet Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christopher, Jason D.; Wimer, Nicholas T.; Hayden, Torrey R. S.; Lapointe, Caelan; Grooms, Ian; Rieker, Gregory B.; Hamlington, Peter E.

2016-11-01

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a powerful tool that allows sparse experimental or other "truth" data to be used for the prediction of unknown model parameters in numerical simulations of real-world engineering systems. In this presentation, we introduce the ABC approach and then use ABC to predict unknown inflow conditions in simulations of a two-dimensional (2D) turbulent, high-temperature buoyant jet. For this test case, truth data are obtained from a simulation with known boundary conditions and problem parameters. Using spatially-sparse temperature statistics from the 2D buoyant jet truth simulation, we show that the ABC method provides accurate predictions of the true jet inflow temperature. The success of the ABC approach in the present test suggests that ABC is a useful and versatile tool for engineering fluid dynamics research.

Brave new world revisited revisited: Huxley's evolving view of behaviorism

PubMed Central

Newman, Bobby

1992-01-01

Aldous Huxley's Brave New World has served as a popular and powerful source of antibehavioral sentiment. Several of Huxley's works are examined in order to ascertain his true thoughts regarding behaviorism. Early in his career Huxley failed to appreciate aspects of behavioral theory (e.g., an appreciation of heredity) or the good ends to which it could be employed. Huxley's later works portrayed behaviorism in a much more positive light, and he believed that behavioral science, along with spiritual enlightenment, might help save humanity from the Brave New World he predicted. PMID:22478115

Market inefficiency identified by both single and multiple currency trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokár, T.; Horváth, D.

2012-11-01

Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency returns; nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J. James, Simple trend-following strategies in currency trading, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the technical analysis. In this article we introduced various statistical quantities examining role of single temporal discretized trend or multitude of grouped trends corresponding to different time delays. Our specific analysis based predominantly on Euro-dollar currency pair data at the one minute frequency suggests the importance of cumulative nonrandom effect of trends on the potential forecasting performance.

Correlation between molecular secondary ion yield and cluster ion sputtering for samples with different stopping powers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heile, A.; Muhmann, C.; Lipinsky, D.; Arlinghaus, H. F.

2012-07-01

In static SIMS, the secondary ion yield, defined as detected ions per primary ion, can be increased by altering several primary ion parameters. For many years, no quantitative predictions could be made for the secondary ion yield enhancement of molecular ions. For thick samples of organic compounds, a power dependency of the secondary ion yield on the sputtering yield was shown. For this article, samples with thick molecular layers and (sub-)monolayers composed of various molecules were prepared on inorganic substrates such as silicon, silver, and gold, and subsequently analyzed. For primary ion bombardment, monoatomic (Ne+, Ar+, Ga+, Kr+, Xe+, Bi+) as well as polyatomic (Bin+, Bin++) primary ions were used within an energy range of 10-50 keV. The power dependency was found to hold true for the different samples; however, the exponent decreased with increasing stopping power. Based on these findings, a rule of thumb is proposed for the prediction of the lower limit of the secondary ion yield enhancement as a function of the primary ion species. Additionally, effects caused by the variation of the energy deposition are discussed, including the degree of molecular fragmentation and the non-linear increase of the secondary ion yield when polyatomic primary ions are used.

Improving consensus contact prediction via server correlation reduction.

PubMed

Gao, Xin; Bu, Dongbo; Xu, Jinbo; Li, Ming

2009-05-06

Protein inter-residue contacts play a crucial role in the determination and prediction of protein structures. Previous studies on contact prediction indicate that although template-based consensus methods outperform sequence-based methods on targets with typical templates, such consensus methods perform poorly on new fold targets. However, we find out that even for new fold targets, the models generated by threading programs can contain many true contacts. The challenge is how to identify them. In this paper, we develop an integer linear programming model for consensus contact prediction. In contrast to the simple majority voting method assuming that all the individual servers are equally important and independent, the newly developed method evaluates their correlation by using maximum likelihood estimation and extracts independent latent servers from them by using principal component analysis. An integer linear programming method is then applied to assign a weight to each latent server to maximize the difference between true contacts and false ones. The proposed method is tested on the CASP7 data set. If the top L/5 predicted contacts are evaluated where L is the protein size, the average accuracy is 73%, which is much higher than that of any previously reported study. Moreover, if only the 15 new fold CASP7 targets are considered, our method achieves an average accuracy of 37%, which is much better than that of the majority voting method, SVM-LOMETS, SVM-SEQ, and SAM-T06. These methods demonstrate an average accuracy of 13.0%, 10.8%, 25.8% and 21.2%, respectively. Reducing server correlation and optimally combining independent latent servers show a significant improvement over the traditional consensus methods. This approach can hopefully provide a powerful tool for protein structure refinement and prediction use.

Evaluation and comparison of the ability of online available prediction programs to predict true linear B-cell epitopes.

PubMed

Costa, Juan G; Faccendini, Pablo L; Sferco, Silvano J; Lagier, Claudia M; Marcipar, Iván S

2013-06-01

This work deals with the use of predictors to identify useful B-cell linear epitopes to develop immunoassays. Experimental techniques to meet this goal are quite expensive and time consuming. Therefore, we tested 5 free, online prediction methods (AAPPred, ABCpred, BcePred, BepiPred and Antigenic) widely used for predicting linear epitopes, using the primary structure of the protein as the only input. We chose a set of 65 experimentally well documented epitopes obtained by the most reliable experimental techniques as our true positive set. To compare the quality of the predictor methods we used their positive predictive value (PPV), i.e. the proportion of the predicted epitopes that are true, experimentally confirmed epitopes, in relation to all the epitopes predicted. We conclude that AAPPred and ABCpred yield the best results as compared with the other programs and with a random prediction procedure. Our results also indicate that considering the consensual epitopes predicted by several programs does not improve the PPV.

Statistical power analysis in wildlife research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steidl, R.J.; Hayes, J.P.

1997-01-01

Statistical power analysis can be used to increase the efficiency of research efforts and to clarify research results. Power analysis is most valuable in the design or planning phases of research efforts. Such prospective (a priori) power analyses can be used to guide research design and to estimate the number of samples necessary to achieve a high probability of detecting biologically significant effects. Retrospective (a posteriori) power analysis has been advocated as a method to increase information about hypothesis tests that were not rejected. However, estimating power for tests of null hypotheses that were not rejected with the effect size observed in the study is incorrect; these power estimates will always be a??0.50 when bias adjusted and have no relation to true power. Therefore, retrospective power estimates based on the observed effect size for hypothesis tests that were not rejected are misleading; retrospective power estimates are only meaningful when based on effect sizes other than the observed effect size, such as those effect sizes hypothesized to be biologically significant. Retrospective power analysis can be used effectively to estimate the number of samples or effect size that would have been necessary for a completed study to have rejected a specific null hypothesis. Simply presenting confidence intervals can provide additional information about null hypotheses that were not rejected, including information about the size of the true effect and whether or not there is adequate evidence to 'accept' a null hypothesis as true. We suggest that (1) statistical power analyses be routinely incorporated into research planning efforts to increase their efficiency, (2) confidence intervals be used in lieu of retrospective power analyses for null hypotheses that were not rejected to assess the likely size of the true effect, (3) minimum biologically significant effect sizes be used for all power analyses, and (4) if retrospective power estimates are to be reported, then the I?-level, effect sizes, and sample sizes used in calculations must also be reported.

A Simple Algorithm for Predicting Bacteremia Using Food Consumption and Shaking Chills: A Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Komatsu, Takayuki; Takahashi, Erika; Mishima, Kentaro; Toyoda, Takeo; Saitoh, Fumihiro; Yasuda, Akari; Matsuoka, Joe; Sugita, Manabu; Branch, Joel; Aoki, Makoto; Tierney, Lawrence; Inoue, Kenji

2017-07-01

Predicting the presence of true bacteremia based on clinical examination is unreliable. We aimed to construct a simple algorithm for predicting true bacteremia by using food consumption and shaking chills. A prospective multicenter observational study. Three hospital centers in a large Japanese city. In total, 1,943 hospitalized patients aged 14 to 96 years who underwent blood culture acquisitions between April 2013 and August 2014 were enrolled. Patients with anorexia-inducing conditions were excluded. We assessed the patients' oral food intake based on the meal immediately prior to the blood culture with definition as "normal food consumption" when >80% of a meal was consumed and "poor food consumption" when <80% was consumed. We also concurrently evaluated for a history of shaking chills. We calculated the statistical characteristics of food consumption and shaking chills for the presence of true bacteremia, and subsequently built the algorithm by using recursive partitioning analysis. Among 1,943 patients, 223 cases were true bacteremia. Among patients with normal food consumption, without shaking chills, the incidence of true bacteremia was 2.4% (13/552). Among patients with poor food consumption and shaking chills, the incidence of true bacteremia was 47.7% (51/107). The presence of poor food consumption had a sensitivity of 93.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.4%-97.9%) for true bacteremia, and the absence of poor food consumption (ie, normal food consumption) had a negative likelihood ratio (LR) of 0.18 (95% CI, 0.17-0.19) for excluding true bacteremia, respectively. Conversely, the presence of the shaking chills had a specificity of 95.1% (95% CI, 90.7%-99.4%) and a positive LR of 4.78 (95% CI, 4.56-5.00) for true bacteremia. A 2-item screening checklist for food consumption and shaking chills had excellent statistical properties as a brief screening instrument for predicting true bacteremia. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine

Quantitative structure-activity relationship models that stand the test of time.

PubMed

Davis, Andrew M; Wood, David J

2013-04-01

The pharmaceutical industry is in a period of intense change. While this has many drivers, attrition through the development process continues to be an important pressure. The emerging definitions of "compound quality" that are based on retrospective analyses of developmental attrition have highlighted a new direction for medicinal chemistry and the paradigm of "quality at the point of design". The time has come for retrospective analyses to catalyze prospective action. Quality at the point of design places pressure on the quality of our predictive models. Empirical QSAR models when built with care provide true predictive control, but their accuracy and precision can be improved. Here we describe AstraZeneca's experience of automation in QSAR model building and validation, and how an informatics system can provide a step-change in predictive power to project design teams, if they choose to use it.

Experimental quantification of the true efficiency of carbon nanotube thin-film thermophones.

PubMed

Bouman, Troy M; Barnard, Andrew R; Asgarisabet, Mahsa

2016-03-01

Carbon nanotube thermophones can create acoustic waves from 1 Hz to 100 kHz. The thermoacoustic effect that allows for this non-vibrating sound source is naturally inefficient. Prior efforts have not explored their true efficiency (i.e., the ratio of the total acoustic power to the electrical input power). All previous works have used the ratio of sound pressure to input electrical power. A method for true power efficiency measurement is shown using a fully anechoic technique. True efficiency data are presented for three different drive signal processing techniques: standard alternating current (AC), direct current added to alternating current (DCAC), and amplitude modulation of an alternating current (AMAC) signal. These signal processing techniques are needed to limit the frequency doubling non-linear effects inherent to carbon nanotube thermophones. Each type of processing affects the true efficiency differently. Using a 72 W(rms) input signal, the measured efficiency ranges were 4.3 × 10(-6) - 319 × 10(-6), 1.7 × 10(-6) - 308 × 10(-6), and 1.2 × 10(-6) - 228 × 10(-6)% for AC, DCAC, and AMAC, respectively. These data were measured in the frequency range of 100 Hz to 10 kHz. In addition, the effects of these processing techniques relative to sound quality are presented in terms of total harmonic distortion.

Progress and challenges in bipolar lead-acid battery development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullock, Kathryn R.

1995-05-01

Bipolar lead-acid batteries have higher power densities than any other aqueous battery system. Predicted specific powers based on models and prototypes range from 800 kW/kg for 100 ms discharge times to 1.6 kW/kg for 10 s. A 48 V automotive bipolar battery could have 2 1/2 times the cold cranking rate of a monopolar 12 V design in the same size. Problems which have precluded the development of commercial bipolar designs include the instability of substrate materials and enhanced side reactions. Design approaches include pseudo-bipolar configurations, as well as true bipolar designs in planar and tubular configurations. Substrate materials used include lead and lead alloys, carbons, conductive ceramics, and tin-oxide-coated glass fibers. These approaches are reviewed and evaluated.

Effect of obesity on preterm delivery prediction by transabdominal recording of uterine electromyography.

PubMed

Lucovnik, Miha; Chambliss, Linda R; Blumrick, Richard; Balducci, James; Gersak, Ksenija; Garfield, Robert E

2016-10-01

It has been shown that noninvasive uterine electromyography (EMG) can identify true preterm labor more accurately than methods available to clinicians today. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of body mass index (BMI) on the accuracy of uterine EMG in predicting preterm delivery. Predictive values of uterine EMG for preterm delivery were compared in obese versus overweight/normal BMI patients. Hanley-McNeil test was used to compare receiver operator characteristics curves in these groups. Previously reported EMG cutoffs were used to determine groups with false positive/false negative and true positive/true negative EMG results. BMI in these groups was compared with Student t test (p < 0.05 significant). A total of 88 patients were included: 20 obese, 64 overweight, and four with normal BMI. EMG predicted preterm delivery within 7 days with area under the curve = 0.95 in the normal/overweight group, and with area under the curve = 1.00 in the obese group (p = 0.08). Six patients in true preterm labor (delivering within 7 days from EMG measurement) had low EMG values (false negative group). There were no false positive results. No significant differences in patient's BMI were noted between false negative group patients and preterm labor patients with high EMG values (true positive group) and nonlabor patients with low EMG values (true negative group; p = 0.32). Accuracy of noninvasive uterine EMG monitoring and its predictive value for preterm delivery are not affected by obesity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Parameter Estimation for a Pulsating Turbulent Buoyant Jet Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christopher, Jason; Wimer, Nicholas; Lapointe, Caelan; Hayden, Torrey; Grooms, Ian; Rieker, Greg; Hamlington, Peter

2017-11-01

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a powerful tool that allows sparse experimental or other ``truth'' data to be used for the prediction of unknown parameters, such as flow properties and boundary conditions, in numerical simulations of real-world engineering systems. Here we introduce the ABC approach and then use ABC to predict unknown inflow conditions in simulations of a two-dimensional (2D) turbulent, high-temperature buoyant jet. For this test case, truth data are obtained from a direct numerical simulation (DNS) with known boundary conditions and problem parameters, while the ABC procedure utilizes lower fidelity large eddy simulations. Using spatially-sparse statistics from the 2D buoyant jet DNS, we show that the ABC method provides accurate predictions of true jet inflow parameters. The success of the ABC approach in the present test suggests that ABC is a useful and versatile tool for predicting flow information, such as boundary conditions, that can be difficult to determine experimentally.

Predicting True Reading Gains After Remedial Tutoring.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dahlke, Anita B.

Using selected student variables, an attempt was made to predict retarded readers' true reading gains after remedial tutoring. The independent variables consisted of IQ and subtest scores obtained on the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC), pretutoring reading levels on the individually administered Diagnostic Reading Scales test, age,…

High energy density propulsion systems and small engine dynamometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hays, Thomas

2009-07-01

Scope and Method of Study. This study investigates all possible methods of powering small unmanned vehicles, provides reasoning for the propulsion system down select, and covers in detail the design and production of a dynamometer to confirm theoretical energy density calculations for small engines. Initial energy density calculations are based upon manufacturer data, pressure vessel theory, and ideal thermodynamic cycle efficiencies. Engine tests are conducted with a braking type dynamometer for constant load energy density tests, and show true energy densities in excess of 1400 WH/lb of fuel. Findings and Conclusions. Theory predicts lithium polymer, the present unmanned system energy storage device of choice, to have much lower energy densities than other conversion energy sources. Small engines designed for efficiency, instead of maximum power, would provide the most advantageous method for powering small unmanned vehicles because these engines have widely variable power output, loss of mass during flight, and generate rotational power directly. Theoretical predictions for the energy density of small engines has been verified through testing. Tested values up to 1400 WH/lb can be seen under proper operating conditions. The implementation of such a high energy density system will require a significant amount of follow-on design work to enable the engines to tolerate the higher temperatures of lean operation. Suggestions are proposed to enable a reliable, small-engine propulsion system in future work. Performance calculations show that a mature system is capable of month long flight times, and unrefueled circumnavigation of the globe.

The application of improved NeuroEvolution of Augmenting Topologies neural network in Marcellus Shale lithofacies prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guochang; Cheng, Guojian; Carr, Timothy R.

2013-04-01

The organic-rich Marcellus Shale was deposited in a foreland basin during Middle Devonian. In terms of mineral composition and organic matter richness, we define seven mudrock lithofacies: three organic-rich lithofacies and four organic-poor lithofacies. The 3D lithofacies model is very helpful to determine geologic and engineering sweet spots, and consequently useful for designing horizontal well trajectories and stimulation strategies. The NeuroEvolution of Augmenting Topologies (NEAT) is relatively new idea in the design of neural networks, and shed light on classification (i.e., Marcellus Shale lithofacies prediction). We have successfully enhanced the capability and efficiency of NEAT in three aspects. First, we introduced two new attributes of node gene, the node location and recurrent connection (RCC), to increase the calculation efficiency. Second, we evolved the population size from an initial small value to big, instead of using the constant value, which saves time and computer memory, especially for complex learning tasks. Third, in multiclass pattern recognition problems, we combined feature selection of input variables and modular neural network to automatically select input variables and optimize network topology for each binary classifier. These improvements were tested and verified by true if an odd number of its arguments are true and false otherwise (XOR) experiments, and were powerful for classification.

Predicting treatment effect from surrogate endpoints and historical trials: an extrapolation involving probabilities of a binary outcome or survival to a specific time

PubMed Central

Sargent, Daniel J.; Buyse, Marc; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2011-01-01

SUMMARY Using multiple historical trials with surrogate and true endpoints, we consider various models to predict the effect of treatment on a true endpoint in a target trial in which only a surrogate endpoint is observed. This predicted result is computed using (1) a prediction model (mixture, linear, or principal stratification) estimated from historical trials and the surrogate endpoint of the target trial and (2) a random extrapolation error estimated from successively leaving out each trial among the historical trials. The method applies to either binary outcomes or survival to a particular time that is computed from censored survival data. We compute a 95% confidence interval for the predicted result and validate its coverage using simulation. To summarize the additional uncertainty from using a predicted instead of true result for the estimated treatment effect, we compute its multiplier of standard error. Software is available for download. PMID:21838732

Spatial-temporal forecasting the sunspot diagram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covas, Eurico

2017-09-01

Aims: We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (I.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. Methods: We use a prediction method based on the non-linear embedding of data series in high dimensions. We use this method to forecast both in latitude (space) and in time, using a full spatial-temporal series of the sunspot diagram from 1874 to 2015. Results: The analysis of the results shows that it is indeed possible to reconstruct the overall shape and amplitude of the spatial-temporal pattern of sunspots, but that the method in its current form does not have real predictive power. We also apply a metric called structural similarity to compare the forecasted and the observed butterfly cycles, showing that this metric can be a useful addition to the usual root mean square error metric when analysing the efficiency of different prediction methods. Conclusions: We conclude that it is in principle possible to reconstruct the full sunspot butterfly diagram for at least one cycle using this approach and that this method and others should be explored since just looking at metrics such as sunspot count number or sunspot total area coverage is too reductive given the spatial-temporal dynamical complexity of the sunspot butterfly diagram. However, more data and/or an improved approach is probably necessary to have true predictive power.

Power Calculations to Select Instruments for Clinical Trial Secondary Endpoints. A Case Study of Instrument Selection for Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms in Subjects with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

PubMed

Sjoding, Michael W; Schoenfeld, David A; Brown, Samuel M; Hough, Catherine L; Yealy, Donald M; Moss, Marc; Angus, Derek C; Iwashyna, Theodore J

2017-01-01

After the sample size of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) is set by the power requirement of its primary endpoint, investigators select secondary endpoints while unable to further adjust sample size. How the sensitivity and specificity of an instrument used to measure these outcomes, together with their expected underlying event rates, affect an RCT's power to measure significant differences in these outcomes is poorly understood. Motivated by the design of an RCT of neuromuscular blockade in acute respiratory distress syndrome, we examined how power to detect a difference in secondary endpoints varies with the sensitivity and specificity of the instrument used to measure such outcomes. We derived a general formula and Stata code for calculating an RCT's power to detect differences in binary outcomes when such outcomes are measured with imperfect sensitivity and specificity. The formula informed the choice of instrument for measuring post-traumatic stress-like symptoms in the Reevaluation of Systemic Early Neuromuscular Blockade RCT ( www.clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT02509078). On the basis of published sensitivities and specificities, the Impact of Events Scale-Revised was predicted to measure a 36% symptom rate, whereas the Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms instrument was predicted to measure a 23% rate, if the true underlying rate of post-traumatic stress symptoms were 25%. Despite its lower sensitivity, the briefer Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms instrument provided superior power to detect a difference in rates between trial arms, owing to its higher specificity. Examining instruments' power to detect differences in outcomes may guide their selection when multiple instruments exist, each with different sensitivities and specificities.

Power Calculations to Select Instruments for Clinical Trial Secondary Endpoints. A Case Study of Instrument Selection for Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms in Subjects with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

PubMed Central

Schoenfeld, David A.; Brown, Samuel M.; Hough, Catherine L.; Yealy, Donald M.; Moss, Marc; Angus, Derek C.; Iwashyna, Theodore J.

2017-01-01

Rationale: After the sample size of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) is set by the power requirement of its primary endpoint, investigators select secondary endpoints while unable to further adjust sample size. How the sensitivity and specificity of an instrument used to measure these outcomes, together with their expected underlying event rates, affect an RCT’s power to measure significant differences in these outcomes is poorly understood. Objectives: Motivated by the design of an RCT of neuromuscular blockade in acute respiratory distress syndrome, we examined how power to detect a difference in secondary endpoints varies with the sensitivity and specificity of the instrument used to measure such outcomes. Methods: We derived a general formula and Stata code for calculating an RCT’s power to detect differences in binary outcomes when such outcomes are measured with imperfect sensitivity and specificity. The formula informed the choice of instrument for measuring post-traumatic stress–like symptoms in the Reevaluation of Systemic Early Neuromuscular Blockade RCT (www.clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT02509078). Measurements and Main Results: On the basis of published sensitivities and specificities, the Impact of Events Scale-Revised was predicted to measure a 36% symptom rate, whereas the Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms instrument was predicted to measure a 23% rate, if the true underlying rate of post-traumatic stress symptoms were 25%. Despite its lower sensitivity, the briefer Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms instrument provided superior power to detect a difference in rates between trial arms, owing to its higher specificity. Conclusions: Examining instruments’ power to detect differences in outcomes may guide their selection when multiple instruments exist, each with different sensitivities and specificities. PMID:27788018

The impact of response measurement error on the analysis of designed experiments

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Hamada, Michael Scott; Burr, Thomas Lee

2016-11-01

This study considers the analysis of designed experiments when there is measurement error in the true response or so-called response measurement error. We consider both additive and multiplicative response measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we investigate the impact of ignoring the response measurement error in the analysis, that is, by using a standard analysis based on t-tests. In addition, we examine the role of repeat measurements in improving the quality of estimation and prediction in the presence of response measurement error. We also study a Bayesian approach that accounts for the response measurement error directly through the specification ofmore » the model, and allows including additional information about variability in the analysis. We consider the impact on power, prediction, and optimization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.« less

The impact of response measurement error on the analysis of designed experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Hamada, Michael Scott; Burr, Thomas Lee

This study considers the analysis of designed experiments when there is measurement error in the true response or so-called response measurement error. We consider both additive and multiplicative response measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we investigate the impact of ignoring the response measurement error in the analysis, that is, by using a standard analysis based on t-tests. In addition, we examine the role of repeat measurements in improving the quality of estimation and prediction in the presence of response measurement error. We also study a Bayesian approach that accounts for the response measurement error directly through the specification ofmore » the model, and allows including additional information about variability in the analysis. We consider the impact on power, prediction, and optimization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.« less

Prediction of time-integrated activity coefficients in PRRT using simulated dynamic PET and a pharmacokinetic model.

PubMed

Hardiansyah, Deni; Attarwala, Ali Asgar; Kletting, Peter; Mottaghy, Felix M; Glatting, Gerhard

2017-10-01

To investigate the accuracy of predicted time-integrated activity coefficients (TIACs) in peptide-receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) using simulated dynamic PET data and a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. PBPK parameters were estimated using biokinetic data of 15 patients after injection of (152±15)MBq of 111 In-DTPAOC (total peptide amount (5.78±0.25)nmol). True mathematical phantoms of patients (MPPs) were the PBPK model with the estimated parameters. Dynamic PET measurements were simulated as being done after bolus injection of 150MBq 68 Ga-DOTATATE using the true MPPs. Dynamic PET scans around 35min p.i. (P 1 ), 4h p.i. (P 2 ) and the combination of P 1 and P 2 (P 3 ) were simulated. Each measurement was simulated with four frames of 5min each and 2 bed positions. PBPK parameters were fitted to the PET data to derive the PET-predicted MPPs. Therapy was simulated assuming an infusion of 5.1GBq of 90 Y-DOTATATE over 30min in both true and PET-predicted MPPs. TIACs of simulated therapy were calculated, true MPPs (true TIACs) and predicted MPPs (predicted TIACs) followed by the calculation of variabilities v. For P 1 and P 2 the population variabilities of kidneys, liver and spleen were acceptable (v<10%). For the tumours and the remainders, the values were large (up to 25%). For P 3 , population variabilities for all organs including the remainder further improved, except that of the tumour (v>10%). Treatment planning of PRRT based on dynamic PET data seems possible for the kidneys, liver and spleen using a PBPK model and patient specific information. Copyright © 2017 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction-Oriented Marker Selection (PROMISE): With Application to High-Dimensional Regression.

PubMed

Kim, Soyeon; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran; Lee, J Jack

2017-06-01

In personalized medicine, biomarkers are used to select therapies with the highest likelihood of success based on an individual patient's biomarker/genomic profile. Two goals are to choose important biomarkers that accurately predict treatment outcomes and to cull unimportant biomarkers to reduce the cost of biological and clinical verifications. These goals are challenging due to the high dimensionality of genomic data. Variable selection methods based on penalized regression (e.g., the lasso and elastic net) have yielded promising results. However, selecting the right amount of penalization is critical to simultaneously achieving these two goals. Standard approaches based on cross-validation (CV) typically provide high prediction accuracy with high true positive rates but at the cost of too many false positives. Alternatively, stability selection (SS) controls the number of false positives, but at the cost of yielding too few true positives. To circumvent these issues, we propose prediction-oriented marker selection (PROMISE), which combines SS with CV to conflate the advantages of both methods. Our application of PROMISE with the lasso and elastic net in data analysis shows that, compared to CV, PROMISE produces sparse solutions, few false positives, and small type I + type II error, and maintains good prediction accuracy, with a marginal decrease in the true positive rates. Compared to SS, PROMISE offers better prediction accuracy and true positive rates. In summary, PROMISE can be applied in many fields to select regularization parameters when the goals are to minimize false positives and maximize prediction accuracy.

Many people agreeing that something is true is not the same thing as people who spend their life studying something (who speak the same way and agree about what makes something true) agreeing that something is true!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, P.

2016-12-01

Burning stuff from the ground for power is changing our home. It's warming up. But some people don't understand or agree that this is true! When people who learn about stuff for their life's work- who speak the same way and agree about what makes something true, and come from many different places and groups- agree that stuff shows something is true, then it's okay to act like it's true, even if you don't study it. This is different from when a lot of people just agree about something.

Motivational Incongruence and Well-Being at the Workplace: Person-Job Fit, Job Burnout, and Physical Symptoms.

PubMed

Brandstätter, Veronika; Job, Veronika; Schulze, Beate

2016-01-01

Person-environment fit has been identified as a key prerequisite for employee well-being. We investigated to what extent a misfit between motivational needs and supplies at the workplace affects two key health outcomes: burnout and physical symptoms. Individual needs (implicit affiliation and power motives) and environment supplies (motive specific job characteristics) were assessed in an online survey of full time employees (n = 97), using a picture story exercise measuring implicit motives and a scale listing affiliation and power related job characteristics. Outcomes were assessed using the Maslach Burnout Inventory and a checklist of physical symptoms. We conducted polynomial regressions with response surface analysis. Results reveal that motivational incongruence with respect to the affiliation motive was related to high job burnout, while motivational incongruence concerning the power motive predicted increased physical symptoms. This was true for both those with a strong affiliation or power motive and low corresponding job characteristics and those with a weak affiliation or power motive and job characteristics demanding the respective motive. Results hint at potential interventions toward preventing or remedying a lack of needs-supply fit and reducing the risk of impairments of well-being.

Motivational Incongruence and Well-Being at the Workplace: Person-Job Fit, Job Burnout, and Physical Symptoms

PubMed Central

Brandstätter, Veronika; Job, Veronika; Schulze, Beate

2016-01-01

Person–environment fit has been identified as a key prerequisite for employee well-being. We investigated to what extent a misfit between motivational needs and supplies at the workplace affects two key health outcomes: burnout and physical symptoms. Individual needs (implicit affiliation and power motives) and environment supplies (motive specific job characteristics) were assessed in an online survey of full time employees (n = 97), using a picture story exercise measuring implicit motives and a scale listing affiliation and power related job characteristics. Outcomes were assessed using the Maslach Burnout Inventory and a checklist of physical symptoms. We conducted polynomial regressions with response surface analysis. Results reveal that motivational incongruence with respect to the affiliation motive was related to high job burnout, while motivational incongruence concerning the power motive predicted increased physical symptoms. This was true for both those with a strong affiliation or power motive and low corresponding job characteristics and those with a weak affiliation or power motive and job characteristics demanding the respective motive. Results hint at potential interventions toward preventing or remedying a lack of needs-supply fit and reducing the risk of impairments of well-being. PMID:27570513

Remnants of semiclassical bistability in the few-photon regime of cavity QED.

PubMed

Kerckhoff, Joseph; Armen, Michael A; Mabuchi, Hideo

2011-11-21

Broadband homodyne detection of the light transmitted by a Fabry-Perot cavity containing a strongly-coupled (133)Cs atom is used to probe the dynamic optical response in a regime where semiclassical theory predicts bistability but strong quantum corrections should apply. While quantum fluctuations destabilize true equilibrium bistability, our observations confirm the existence of metastable states with finite lifetimes and a hysteretic response is apparent when the optical drive is modulated on comparable timescales. Our experiment elucidates remnant semiclassical behavior in the attojoule (~10 photon) regime of single-atom cavity QED, of potential significance for ultra-low power photonic signal processing. © 2011 Optical Society of America

Thine Own Self: True Self-Concept Accessibility and Meaning in Life

PubMed Central

Schlegel, Rebecca J.; Hicks, Joshua A.; Arndt, Jamie; King, Laura A.

2016-01-01

A number of philosophical and psychological theories suggest the true self is an important contributor to well-being. The present research examined whether the cognitive accessibility of the true self-concept would predict the experience of meaning in life. To ensure that any observed effects were due to the true self-concept rather than the self-concept more generally, we utilized actual self-concept accessibility as a control variable in all studies. True and actual self-concepts were defined as including those traits which are enacted around close others versus most others (Studies 1 through 3) or as traits that refer to “who you really are” vs. “who you are during most of your activities” (Studies 4 and 5), respectively. Studies 1 and 2 showed that individual differences in true self-concept accessibility, but not differences in actual self-concept accessibility, predicted meaning in life. Study 3 showed that priming traits related to the true self led to enhanced meaning in life. Studies 4 and 5 provided correlational and experimental support for the role of true self-concept accessibility in meaning in life, even when traits were defined without reference to social relationships and when state self-esteem and self-reported authenticity were controlled. Implications for the study of the true self-concept and authenticity are discussed. PMID:19159144

Daniell method for power spectral density estimation in atomic force microscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Labuda, Aleksander

An alternative method for power spectral density (PSD) estimation—the Daniell method—is revisited and compared to the most prevalent method used in the field of atomic force microscopy for quantifying cantilever thermal motion—the Bartlett method. Both methods are shown to underestimate the Q factor of a simple harmonic oscillator (SHO) by a predictable, and therefore correctable, amount in the absence of spurious deterministic noise sources. However, the Bartlett method is much more prone to spectral leakage which can obscure the thermal spectrum in the presence of deterministic noise. By the significant reduction in spectral leakage, the Daniell method leads to amore » more accurate representation of the true PSD and enables clear identification and rejection of deterministic noise peaks. This benefit is especially valuable for the development of automated PSD fitting algorithms for robust and accurate estimation of SHO parameters from a thermal spectrum.« less

Epileptic Seizures Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods

PubMed Central

Usman, Syed Muhammad

2017-01-01

Epileptic seizures occur due to disorder in brain functionality which can affect patient's health. Prediction of epileptic seizures before the beginning of the onset is quite useful for preventing the seizure by medication. Machine learning techniques and computational methods are used for predicting epileptic seizures from Electroencephalograms (EEG) signals. However, preprocessing of EEG signals for noise removal and features extraction are two major issues that have an adverse effect on both anticipation time and true positive prediction rate. Therefore, we propose a model that provides reliable methods of both preprocessing and feature extraction. Our model predicts epileptic seizures' sufficient time before the onset of seizure starts and provides a better true positive rate. We have applied empirical mode decomposition (EMD) for preprocessing and have extracted time and frequency domain features for training a prediction model. The proposed model detects the start of the preictal state, which is the state that starts few minutes before the onset of the seizure, with a higher true positive rate compared to traditional methods, 92.23%, and maximum anticipation time of 33 minutes and average prediction time of 23.6 minutes on scalp EEG CHB-MIT dataset of 22 subjects. PMID:29410700

18 CFR 801.12 - Electric power generation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Electric power... COMMISSION GENERAL POLICIES § 801.12 Electric power generation. (a) Significant uses are presently being made of the waters of the basin for the generation of electric power at hydro, pumped storage, and...

Econophysics of adaptive power markets: When a market does not dampen fluctuations but amplifies them

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Sebastian M.; Börries, Stefan; Bornholdt, Stefan

2015-07-01

The average economic agent is often used to model the dynamics of simple markets, based on the assumption that the dynamics of a system of many agents can be averaged over in time and space. A popular idea that is based on this seemingly intuitive notion is to dampen electric power fluctuations from fluctuating sources (as, e.g., wind or solar) via a market mechanism, namely by variable power prices that adapt demand to supply. The standard model of an average economic agent predicts that fluctuations are reduced by such an adaptive pricing mechanism. However, the underlying assumption that the actions of all agents average out on the time axis is not always true in a market of many agents. We numerically study an econophysics agent model of an adaptive power market that does not assume averaging a priori. We find that when agents are exposed to source noise via correlated price fluctuations (as adaptive pricing schemes suggest), the market may amplify those fluctuations. In particular, small price changes may translate to large load fluctuations through catastrophic consumer synchronization. As a result, an adaptive power market may cause the opposite effect than intended: Power demand fluctuations are not dampened but amplified instead.

A decision model to predict the risk of the first fall onset.

PubMed

Deschamps, Thibault; Le Goff, Camille G; Berrut, Gilles; Cornu, Christophe; Mignardot, Jean-Baptiste

2016-08-01

Miscellaneous features from various domains are accepted to be associated with the risk of falling in the elderly. However, only few studies have focused on establishing clinical tools to predict the risk of the first fall onset. A model that would objectively and easily evaluate the risk of a first fall occurrence in the coming year still needs to be built. We developed a model based on machine learning, which might help the medical staff predict the risk of the first fall onset in a one-year time window. Overall, 426 older adults who had never fallen were assessed on 73 variables, comprising medical, social and physical outcomes, at t0. Each fall was recorded at a prospective 1-year follow-up. A decision tree was built on a randomly selected training subset of the cohort (80% of the full-set) and validated on an independent test set. 82 participants experienced a first fall during the follow-up. The machine learning process independently extracted 13 powerful parameters and built a model showing 89% of accuracy for the overall classification with 83%-82% of true positive fallers and 96%-61% of true negative non-fallers (training set vs. independent test set). This study provides a pilot tool that could easily help the gerontologists refine the evaluation of the risk of the first fall onset and prioritize the effective prevention strategies. The study also offers a transparent framework for future, related investigation that would validate the clinical relevance of the established model by independently testing its accuracy on larger cohort. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive models of poly(ethylene-terephthalate) film degradation under multi-factor accelerated weathering exposures

PubMed Central

Ngendahimana, David K.; Fagerholm, Cara L.; Sun, Jiayang; Bruckman, Laura S.

2017-01-01

Accelerated weathering exposures were performed on poly(ethylene-terephthalate) (PET) films. Longitudinal multi-level predictive models as a function of PET grades and exposure types were developed for the change in yellowness index (YI) and haze (%). Exposures with similar change in YI were modeled using a linear fixed-effects modeling approach. Due to the complex nature of haze formation, measurement uncertainty, and the differences in the samples’ responses, the change in haze (%) depended on individual samples’ responses and a linear mixed-effects modeling approach was used. When compared to fixed-effects models, the addition of random effects in the haze formation models significantly increased the variance explained. For both modeling approaches, diagnostic plots confirmed independence and homogeneity with normally distributed residual errors. Predictive R2 values for true prediction error and predictive power of the models demonstrated that the models were not subject to over-fitting. These models enable prediction under pre-defined exposure conditions for a given exposure time (or photo-dosage in case of UV light exposure). PET degradation under cyclic exposures combining UV light and condensing humidity is caused by photolytic and hydrolytic mechanisms causing yellowing and haze formation. Quantitative knowledge of these degradation pathways enable cross-correlation of these lab-based exposures with real-world conditions for service life prediction. PMID:28498875

Evaluation of True Power Luminous Efficiency from Experimental Luminance Values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsui, Tetsuo; Yamamato, Kounosuke

1999-05-01

A method for obtaining true external power luminous efficiencyfrom experimentally obtained luminance in organic light-emittingdiodes (LEDs) wasdemonstrated. Conventional two-layer organic LEDs with different electron-transport layer thicknesses wereprepared. Spatial distributions of emission intensities wereobserved. The large deviation in both emission spectra and spatialemission patterns were observed when the electron-transport layerthickness was varied. The deviation of emission patterns from thestandard Lambertian pattern was found to cause overestimations ofpower luminous efficiencies as large as 30%. A method for evaluatingcorrection factors was proposed.

A method for the topographical identification and quantification of high frequency oscillations in intracranial electroencephalography recordings

PubMed Central

Waldman, Zachary J.; Shimamoto, Shoichi; Song, Inkyung; Orosz, Iren; Bragin, Anatol; Fried, Itzhak; Engel, Jerome; Staba, Richard; Sperling, Michael R.; Weiss, Shennan A.

2018-01-01

Objective To develop a reliable software method using a topographic analysis of time-frequency plots to distinguish ripple (80–200 Hz) oscillations that are often associated with EEG sharp waves or spikes (RonS) from sinusoid-like waveforms that appear as ripples but correspond with digital filtering of sharp transients contained in the wide bandwidth EEG. Methods A custom algorithm distinguished true from false ripples in one second intracranial EEG (iEEG) recordings using wavelet convolution, identifying contours of isopower, and categorizing these contours into sets of open or closed loop groups. The spectral and temporal features of candidate groups were used to classify the ripple, and determine its duration, frequency, and power. Verification of detector accuracy was performed on the basis of simulations, and visual inspection of the original and band-pass filtered signals. Results The detector could distinguish simulated true from false ripple on spikes (RonS). Among 2934 visually verified trials of iEEG recordings and spectrograms exhibiting RonS the accuracy of the detector was 88.5% with a sensitivity of 81.8% and a specificity of 95.2%. The precision was 94.5% and the negative predictive value was 84.0% (N = 12). Among, 1,370 trials of iEEG recording exhibiting RonS that were reviewed blindly without spectrograms the accuracy of the detector was 68.0%, with kappa equal to 0.01 ± 0.03. The detector successfully distinguished ripple from high spectral frequency ‘fast ripple’ oscillations (200–600 Hz), and characterize ripple duration and spectral frequency and power. The detector was confounded by brief bursts of gamma (30–80 Hz) activity in 7.31 ± 6.09% of trials, and in 30.2 ± 14.4% of the true RonS detections ripple duration was underestimated. Conclusions Characterizing the topographic features of a time-frequency plot generated by wavelet convolution is useful for distinguishing true oscillations from false oscillations generated by filter ringing. Significance Categorizing ripple oscillations and characterizing their properties can improve the clinical utility of the biomarker. PMID:29122445

Reproducing tailing in breakthrough curves: Are statistical models equally representative and predictive?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedretti, Daniele; Bianchi, Marco

2018-03-01

Breakthrough curves (BTCs) observed during tracer tests in highly heterogeneous aquifers display strong tailing. Power laws are popular models for both the empirical fitting of these curves, and the prediction of transport using upscaling models based on best-fitted estimated parameters (e.g. the power law slope or exponent). The predictive capacity of power law based upscaling models can be however questioned due to the difficulties to link model parameters with the aquifers' physical properties. This work analyzes two aspects that can limit the use of power laws as effective predictive tools: (a) the implication of statistical subsampling, which often renders power laws undistinguishable from other heavily tailed distributions, such as the logarithmic (LOG); (b) the difficulties to reconcile fitting parameters obtained from models with different formulations, such as the presence of a late-time cutoff in the power law model. Two rigorous and systematic stochastic analyses, one based on benchmark distributions and the other on BTCs obtained from transport simulations, are considered. It is found that a power law model without cutoff (PL) results in best-fitted exponents (αPL) falling in the range of typical experimental values reported in the literature (1.5 < αPL < 4). The PL exponent tends to lower values as the tailing becomes heavier. Strong fluctuations occur when the number of samples is limited, due to the effects of subsampling. On the other hand, when the power law model embeds a cutoff (PLCO), the best-fitted exponent (αCO) is insensitive to the degree of tailing and to the effects of subsampling and tends to a constant αCO ≈ 1. In the PLCO model, the cutoff rate (λ) is the parameter that fully reproduces the persistence of the tailing and is shown to be inversely correlated to the LOG scale parameter (i.e. with the skewness of the distribution). The theoretical results are consistent with the fitting analysis of a tracer test performed during the MADE-5 experiment. It is shown that a simple mechanistic upscaling model based on the PLCO formulation is able to predict the ensemble of BTCs from the stochastic transport simulations without the need of any fitted parameters. The model embeds the constant αCO = 1 and relies on a stratified description of the transport mechanisms to estimate λ. The PL fails to reproduce the ensemble of BTCs at late time, while the LOG model provides consistent results as the PLCO model, however without a clear mechanistic link between physical properties and model parameters. It is concluded that, while all parametric models may work equally well (or equally wrong) for the empirical fitting of the experimental BTCs tails due to the effects of subsampling, for predictive purposes this is not true. A careful selection of the proper heavily tailed models and corresponding parameters is required to ensure physically-based transport predictions.

High Fidelity, “Faster than Real-Time” Simulator for Predicting Power System Dynamic Behavior - Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flueck, Alex

The “High Fidelity, Faster than Real­Time Simulator for Predicting Power System Dynamic Behavior” was designed and developed by Illinois Institute of Technology with critical contributions from Electrocon International, Argonne National Laboratory, Alstom Grid and McCoy Energy. Also essential to the project were our two utility partners: Commonwealth Edison and AltaLink. The project was a success due to several major breakthroughs in the area of large­scale power system dynamics simulation, including (1) a validated faster than real­ time simulation of both stable and unstable transient dynamics in a large­scale positive sequence transmission grid model, (2) a three­phase unbalanced simulation platform formore » modeling new grid devices, such as independently controlled single­phase static var compensators (SVCs), (3) the world’s first high fidelity three­phase unbalanced dynamics and protection simulator based on Electrocon’s CAPE program, and (4) a first­of­its­ kind implementation of a single­phase induction motor model with stall capability. The simulator results will aid power grid operators in their true time of need, when there is a significant risk of cascading outages. The simulator will accelerate performance and enhance accuracy of dynamics simulations, enabling operators to maintain reliability and steer clear of blackouts. In the long­term, the simulator will form the backbone of the newly conceived hybrid real­time protection and control architecture that will coordinate local controls, wide­area measurements, wide­area controls and advanced real­time prediction capabilities. The nation’s citizens will benefit in several ways, including (1) less down time from power outages due to the faster­than­real­time simulator’s predictive capability, (2) higher levels of reliability due to the detailed dynamics plus protection simulation capability, and (3) more resiliency due to the three­ phase unbalanced simulator’s ability to model three­phase and single­ phase networks and devices.« less

Relative Packing Groups in Template-Based Structure Prediction: Cooperative Effects of True Positive Constraints

PubMed Central

Day, Ryan; Qu, Xiaotao; Swanson, Rosemarie; Bohannan, Zach; Bliss, Robert

2011-01-01

Abstract Most current template-based structure prediction methods concentrate on finding the correct backbone conformation and then packing sidechains within that backbone. Our packing-based method derives distance constraints from conserved relative packing groups (RPGs). In our refinement approach, the RPGs provide a level of resolution that restrains global topology while allowing conformational sampling. In this study, we test our template-based structure prediction method using 51 prediction units from CASP7 experiments. RPG-based constraints are able to substantially improve approximately two-thirds of starting templates. Upon deeper investigation, we find that true positive spatial constraints, especially those non-local in sequence, derived from the RPGs were important to building nearer native models. Surprisingly, the fraction of incorrect or false positive constraints does not strongly influence the quality of the final candidate. This result indicates that our RPG-based true positive constraints sample the self-consistent, cooperative interactions of the native structure. The lack of such reinforcing cooperativity explains the weaker effect of false positive constraints. Generally, these findings are encouraging indications that RPGs will improve template-based structure prediction. PMID:21210729

12 CFR 550.20 - What are fiduciary powers?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2014-01-01 2012-01-01 true What are fiduciary powers? 550.20 Section 550.20 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY FIDUCIARY POWERS OF SAVINGS ASSOCIATIONS § 550.20 What are fiduciary powers? Fiduciary powers are the authority that OTS permits you to...

On the Constitutive Model of Nitrogen-Containing Austenitic Stainless Steel 316LN at Elevated Temperature

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lei; Feng, Xiao; Wang, Xin; Liu, Changyong

2014-01-01

The nitrogen-containing austenitic stainless steel 316LN has been chosen as the material for nuclear main-pipe, which is one of the key parts in 3rd generation nuclear power plants. In this research, a constitutive model of nitrogen-containing austenitic stainless steel is developed. The true stress-true strain curves obtained from isothermal hot compression tests over a wide range of temperatures (900–1250°C) and strain rates (10−3–10 s−1), were employed to study the dynamic deformational behavior of and recrystallization in 316LN steels. The constitutive model is developed through multiple linear regressions performed on the experimental data and based on an Arrhenius-type equation and Zener-Hollomon theory. The influence of strain was incorporated in the developed constitutive equation by considering the effect of strain on the various material constants. The reliability and accuracy of the model is verified through the comparison of predicted flow stress curves and experimental curves. Possible reasons for deviation are also discussed based on the characteristics of modeling process. PMID:25375345

[Prediction of the side-cut product yield of atmospheric/vacuum distillation unit by NIR crude oil rapid assay].

PubMed

Wang, Yan-Bin; Hu, Yu-Zhong; Li, Wen-Le; Zhang, Wei-Song; Zhou, Feng; Luo, Zhi

2014-10-01

In the present paper, based on the fast evaluation technique of near infrared, a method to predict the yield of atmos- pheric and vacuum line was developed, combined with H/CAMS software. Firstly, the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy method for rapidly determining the true boiling point of crude oil was developed. With commercially available crude oil spectroscopy da- tabase and experiments test from Guangxi Petrochemical Company, calibration model was established and a topological method was used as the calibration. The model can be employed to predict the true boiling point of crude oil. Secondly, the true boiling point based on NIR rapid assay was converted to the side-cut product yield of atmospheric/vacuum distillation unit by H/CAMS software. The predicted yield and the actual yield of distillation product for naphtha, diesel, wax and residual oil were compared in a 7-month period. The result showed that the NIR rapid crude assay can predict the side-cut product yield accurately. The near infrared analytic method for predicting yield has the advantages of fast analysis, reliable results, and being easy to online operate, and it can provide elementary data for refinery planning optimization and crude oil blending.

Realism on the rocks: Novel success and James Hutton's theory of the earth.

PubMed

Rossetter, Thomas

2018-02-01

In this paper, I introduce a new historical case study into the scientific realism debate. During the late-eighteenth century, the Scottish natural philosopher James Hutton made two important successful novel predictions. The first concerned granitic veins intruding from granite masses into strata. The second concerned what geologists now term "angular unconformities": older sections of strata overlain by younger sections, the two resting at different angles, the former typically more inclined than the latter. These predictions, I argue, are potentially problematic for selective scientific realism in that constituents of Hutton's theory that would not be considered even approximately true today played various roles in generating them. The aim here is not to provide a full philosophical analysis but to introduce the case into the debate by detailing the history and showing why, at least prima facie, it presents a problem for selective realism. First, I explicate Hutton's theory. I then give an account of Hutton's predictions and their confirmations. Next, I explain why these predictions are relevant to the realism debate. Finally, I consider which constituents of Hutton's theory are, according to current beliefs, true (or approximately true), which are not (even approximately) true, and which were responsible for these successes. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

DR2DI: a powerful computational tool for predicting novel drug-disease associations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Lu; Yu, Hua

2018-05-01

Finding the new related candidate diseases for known drugs provides an effective method for fast-speed and low-risk drug development. However, experimental identification of drug-disease associations is expensive and time-consuming. This motivates the need for developing in silico computational methods that can infer true drug-disease pairs with high confidence. In this study, we presented a novel and powerful computational tool, DR2DI, for accurately uncovering the potential associations between drugs and diseases using high-dimensional and heterogeneous omics data as information sources. Based on a unified and extended similarity kernel framework, DR2DI inferred the unknown relationships between drugs and diseases using Regularized Kernel Classifier. Importantly, DR2DI employed a semi-supervised and global learning algorithm which can be applied to uncover the diseases (drugs) associated with known and novel drugs (diseases). In silico global validation experiments showed that DR2DI significantly outperforms recent two approaches for predicting drug-disease associations. Detailed case studies further demonstrated that the therapeutic indications and side effects of drugs predicted by DR2DI could be validated by existing database records and literature, suggesting that DR2DI can be served as a useful bioinformatic tool for identifying the potential drug-disease associations and guiding drug repositioning. Our software and comparison codes are freely available at https://github.com/huayu1111/DR2DI.

Nonequilibrium ferroelectric-ferroelastic 10 nm nanodomains: wrinkles, period-doubling, and power-law relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, James F.; Evans, Donald M.; Katiyar, Ram S.; McQuaid, Raymond G. P.; Gregg, J. Marty

2017-08-01

Since the 1935 work of Landau-Lifshitz and of Kittel in 1946 all ferromagnetic, ferroelectric, and ferroelastic domains have been thought to be straight-sided with domain widths proportional to the square root of the sample thickness. We show in the present work that this is not true. We also discover period doubling domains predicted by Metaxas et al (2008 Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 217208) and modeled by Wang and Zhao (2015 Sci. Rep. 5 8887). We examine non-equilibrium ferroic domain structures in perovskite oxides with respect to folding, wrinkling, and relaxation and suggest that structures are kinetically limited and in the viscous flow regime predicted by Metaxas et al in 2008 but never observed experimentally. Comparisons are made with liquid crystals and hydrodynamic instabilities, including chevrons, and fractional power-law relaxation. As Shin et al (2016 Soft Matter 12 3502) recently emphasized: ‘An understanding of how these folds initiate, propagate, and interact with each other is still lacking’. Inside each ferroelastic domain are ferroelectric 90° nano-domains with 10 nm widths and periodicity in agreement with the 10 nm theoretical minima predicted by Feigl et al (2014 Nat. Commun. 5 4677). Evidence is presented for domain-width period doubling, which is common in polymer films but unknown in ferroic domains. A discussion of the folding-to-period doubling phase transition model of Wang and Zhao is included.

DR2DI: a powerful computational tool for predicting novel drug-disease associations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Lu; Yu, Hua

2018-04-01

Finding the new related candidate diseases for known drugs provides an effective method for fast-speed and low-risk drug development. However, experimental identification of drug-disease associations is expensive and time-consuming. This motivates the need for developing in silico computational methods that can infer true drug-disease pairs with high confidence. In this study, we presented a novel and powerful computational tool, DR2DI, for accurately uncovering the potential associations between drugs and diseases using high-dimensional and heterogeneous omics data as information sources. Based on a unified and extended similarity kernel framework, DR2DI inferred the unknown relationships between drugs and diseases using Regularized Kernel Classifier. Importantly, DR2DI employed a semi-supervised and global learning algorithm which can be applied to uncover the diseases (drugs) associated with known and novel drugs (diseases). In silico global validation experiments showed that DR2DI significantly outperforms recent two approaches for predicting drug-disease associations. Detailed case studies further demonstrated that the therapeutic indications and side effects of drugs predicted by DR2DI could be validated by existing database records and literature, suggesting that DR2DI can be served as a useful bioinformatic tool for identifying the potential drug-disease associations and guiding drug repositioning. Our software and comparison codes are freely available at https://github.com/huayu1111/DR2DI.

Evapotranspiration Power Law in Self-Organized and Human-Managed Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, R.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

Natural systems display a profound degree of self-organization, often apparent even to the untrained eye. However, in this age of increased coupling among human and natural systems, it is unclear to what degree natural organization principles continue to govern human-managed landscapes. Here we present an emerging characteristic of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET), one of the key components of the water cycle and energy budget, adhered to by both naturally organized and intensively managed landscapes. We find that ET variance and ET mean for ecosystems throughout the world with diverse climate conditions, vegetation structures, and land covers and land uses organize themselves according to a specific power law curve. From multi-source observations, the ET power law curve stands true through varying spatial scales, from field to region. Moreover, a phenomenon of similar ecosystems gravitating toward particular segments of the power law curve, suggests that the feature of self-optimization of ecosystems establishes the ET power law together with climatic conditions. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that landscapes persistently follow the power law curve even upon human-induced transition from rain-fed to irrigated agriculture in the American High Plains and from wetland to agricultural land in American Midwest. As such, the ET power law can be an informative tool for predicting consequences of anthropogenic disturbances to the hydrologic cycle and understanding constraints to sustainable land use.

The power of the placebo.

PubMed

Eccles, Ron

2007-05-01

The placebo is much more than a control medicine in a clinical trial. The placebo response is the largest component of any allergy treatment and consists of two components: nonspecific effects (eg, natural recovery) and a "true placebo effect" that is the psychological therapeutic effect of the treatment. Belief in the beneficial nature of the treatment is a key component of the true placebo effect, and can be enhanced by factors such as interaction with the physician and the sensory impact of the treatment. Negative beliefs can generate a nocebo effect that may explain some psychogenic illnesses; this is the basis of much research in psychoneuroimmunology. An understanding of the placebo and nocebo effects is important for general allergy practice, and harnessing the power of the true placebo effect is a major challenge to modern medicine.

On the Post Hoc Power in Testing Mean Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Maxwell, Scott

2005-01-01

Retrospective or post hoc power analysis is recommended by reviewers and editors of many journals. Little literature has been found that gave a serious study of the post hoc power. When the sample size is large, the observed effect size is a good estimator of the true power. This article studies whether such a power estimator provides valuable…

Effect of genetic architecture on the prediction accuracy of quantitative traits in samples of unrelated individuals.

PubMed

Morgante, Fabio; Huang, Wen; Maltecca, Christian; Mackay, Trudy F C

2018-06-01

Predicting complex phenotypes from genomic data is a fundamental aim of animal and plant breeding, where we wish to predict genetic merits of selection candidates; and of human genetics, where we wish to predict disease risk. While genomic prediction models work well with populations of related individuals and high linkage disequilibrium (LD) (e.g., livestock), comparable models perform poorly for populations of unrelated individuals and low LD (e.g., humans). We hypothesized that low prediction accuracies in the latter situation may occur when the genetics architecture of the trait departs from the infinitesimal and additive architecture assumed by most prediction models. We used simulated data for 10,000 lines based on sequence data from a population of unrelated, inbred Drosophila melanogaster lines to evaluate this hypothesis. We show that, even in very simplified scenarios meant as a stress test of the commonly used Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (G-BLUP) method, using all common variants yields low prediction accuracy regardless of the trait genetic architecture. However, prediction accuracy increases when predictions are informed by the genetic architecture inferred from mapping the top variants affecting main effects and interactions in the training data, provided there is sufficient power for mapping. When the true genetic architecture is largely or partially due to epistatic interactions, the additive model may not perform well, while models that account explicitly for interactions generally increase prediction accuracy. Our results indicate that accounting for genetic architecture can improve prediction accuracy for quantitative traits.

Designing novel Sn-Bi, Si-C and Ge-C nanostructures, using simple theoretical chemical similarities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zdetsis, Aristides D.

2011-04-01

A framework of simple, transparent and powerful concepts is presented which is based on isoelectronic (or isovalent) principles, analogies, regularities and similarities. These analogies could be considered as conceptual extensions of the periodical table of the elements, assuming that two atoms or molecules having the same number of valence electrons would be expected to have similar or homologous properties. In addition, such similar moieties should be able, in principle, to replace each other in more complex structures and nanocomposites. This is only partly true and only occurs under certain conditions which are investigated and reviewed here. When successful, these concepts are very powerful and transparent, leading to a large variety of nanomaterials based on Si and other group 14 elements, similar to well known and well studied analogous materials based on boron and carbon. Such nanomaterias designed in silico include, among many others, Si-C, Sn-Bi, Si-C and Ge-C clusters, rings, nanowheels, nanorodes, nanocages and multidecker sandwiches, as well as silicon planar rings and fullerenes similar to the analogous sp2 bonding carbon structures. It is shown that this pedagogically simple and transparent framework can lead to an endless variety of novel and functional nanomaterials with important potential applications in nanotechnology, nanomedicine and nanobiology. Some of the so called predicted structures have been already synthesized, not necessarily with the same rational and motivation. Finally, it is anticipated that such powerful and transparent rules and analogies, in addition to their predictive power, could also lead to far-reaching interpretations and a deeper understanding of already known results and information.

Designing novel Sn-Bi, Si-C and Ge-C nanostructures, using simple theoretical chemical similarities.

PubMed

Zdetsis, Aristides D

2011-04-27

A framework of simple, transparent and powerful concepts is presented which is based on isoelectronic (or isovalent) principles, analogies, regularities and similarities. These analogies could be considered as conceptual extensions of the periodical table of the elements, assuming that two atoms or molecules having the same number of valence electrons would be expected to have similar or homologous properties. In addition, such similar moieties should be able, in principle, to replace each other in more complex structures and nanocomposites. This is only partly true and only occurs under certain conditions which are investigated and reviewed here. When successful, these concepts are very powerful and transparent, leading to a large variety of nanomaterials based on Si and other group 14 elements, similar to well known and well studied analogous materials based on boron and carbon. Such nanomaterias designed in silico include, among many others, Si-C, Sn-Bi, Si-C and Ge-C clusters, rings, nanowheels, nanorodes, nanocages and multidecker sandwiches, as well as silicon planar rings and fullerenes similar to the analogous sp2 bonding carbon structures. It is shown that this pedagogically simple and transparent framework can lead to an endless variety of novel and functional nanomaterials with important potential applications in nanotechnology, nanomedicine and nanobiology. Some of the so called predicted structures have been already synthesized, not necessarily with the same rational and motivation. Finally, it is anticipated that such powerful and transparent rules and analogies, in addition to their predictive power, could also lead to far-reaching interpretations and a deeper understanding of already known results and information.

Searching for the Authentic: The True North and the True Composer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fisher, Alfred J.

1988-01-01

Explains how the author's experiences with Native people's ways and music had a powerful linkage to his own musical composition in that these cultural experiences acted as a catalyst to action and subsequent self-knowledge. Compares this learning process to that found in higher education. (SV)

A method for testing whether model predictions fall within a prescribed factor of true values, with an application to pesticide leaching

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Rudolph S.; Smith, Charles N.

1990-01-01

A quantitative method is described for testing whether model predictions fall within a specified factor of true values. The technique is based on classical theory for confidence regions on unknown population parameters and can be related to hypothesis testing in both univariate and multivariate situations. A capability index is defined that can be used as a measure of predictive capability of a model, and its properties are discussed. The testing approach and the capability index should facilitate model validation efforts and permit comparisons among competing models. An example is given for a pesticide leaching model that predicts chemical concentrations in the soil profile.

Correction of the post -- necking true stress -- strain data using instrumented nanoindentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero Fonseca, Ivan Dario

The study of large plastic deformations has been the focus of numerous studies particularly in the metal forming processes and fracture mechanics fields. A good understanding of the plastic flow properties of metallic alloys and the true stresses and true strains induced during plastic deformation is crucial to optimize the aforementioned processes, and to predict ductile failure in fracture mechanics analyzes. Knowledge of stresses and strains is extracted from the true stress-strain curve of the material from the uniaxial tensile test. In addition, stress triaxiality is manifested by the neck developed during the last stage of a tensile test performed on a ductile material. This necking phenomenon is the factor responsible for deviating from uniaxial state into a triaxial one, then, providing an inaccurate description of the material's behavior after the onset of necking. The research of this dissertation is aimed at the development of a correction method for the nonuniform plastic deformation (post-necking) portion of the true stress-strain curve. The correction proposed is based on the well-known relationship between hardness and flow (yield) stress, except that instrumented nanoindentation hardness is utilized rather than conventional macro or micro hardness. Three metals with different combinations of strain hardening behavior and crystal structure were subjected to quasi-static tensile tests: power-law strain hardening low carbon G10180 steel (BCC) and electrolytic tough pitch copper C11000 (FCC), and linear strain hardening austenitic stainless steel S30400 (FCC). Nanoindentation hardness values, measured on the broken tensile specimen, were converted into flow stress values by means of the constraint factor C from Tabor's, the representative plastic strainepsilonr and the post-test true plastic strains measured. Micro Vickers hardness testing was carried out on the sample as well. The constraint factors were 5.5, 4.5 and 4.5 and the representative plastic strains were 0.028, 0.062 and 0.061 for G101800, C11000 and S30400 respectively. The established corrected curves relating post-necking flow stress to true plastic strain turned out to be well represented by a power-law function. Experimental results dictated that a unique single value for C and for epsilonr is not appropriate to describe materials with different plastic behaviors. Therefore, Tabor's equation, along with the representative plastic strain concept, has been misused in the past. The studied materials exhibited different nanohardness and plastic strain distributions due to their inherently distinct elasto-plastic response. The proposed post-necking correction separates out the effect of triaxiality on the uniaxial true stress-strain curve provided that the nanohardness-flow stress relationship is based on uniaxial values of stress. Some type of size effect, due to the microvoids at the tip of the neck, influenced nanohardness measurements. The instrumented nanoindentation technique proved to be a very suitable method to probe elasto-plastic properties of materials such as nanohardness, elastic modulus, and quasi-static strain rate sensitivity among others. Care should be taken when converting nanohardness to Vickers and vice versa due to their different area definition used. Nanohardness to Vickers ratio oscillated between 1.01 and 1.17.

AMOEBA 2.0: A physics-first approach to biomolecular simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rackers, Joshua; Ponder, Jay

The goal of the AMOEBA force field project is to use classical physics to understand and predict the nature of interactions between biological molecules. While making significant advances over the past decade, the ultimate goal of predicting binding energies with ``chemical accuracy'' remains elusive. The primary source of this inaccuracy comes from the physics of how molecules interact at short range. For example, despite AMOEBA's advanced treatment of electrostatics, the force field dramatically overpredicts the electrostatic energy of DNA stacking interactions. AMOEBA 2.0 works to correct these errors by including simple, first principles physics-based terms to account for the quantum mechanical nature of these short-range molecular interactions. We have added a charge penetration term that considerably improves the description of electrostatic interactions at short range. We are reformulating the polarization term of AMOEBA in terms of basic physics assertions. And we are reevaluating the van der Waals term to match ab initio energy decompositions. These additions and changes promise to make AMOEBA more predictive. By including more physical detail of the important short-range interactions of biological molecules, we hope to move closer to the ultimate goal of true predictive power.

Flow studies in canine artery bifurcations using a numerical simulation method.

PubMed

Xu, X Y; Collins, M W; Jones, C J

1992-11-01

Three-dimensional flows through canine femoral bifurcation models were predicted under physiological flow conditions by solving numerically the time-dependent three-dimensional Navier-stokes equations. In the calculations, two models were assumed for the blood, those of (a) a Newtonian fluid, and (b) a non-Newtonian fluid obeying the power law. The blood vessel wall was assumed to be rigid this being the only approximation to the prediction model. The numerical procedure utilized a finite volume approach on a finite element mesh to discretize the equations, and the code used (ASTEC) incorporated the SIMPLE velocity-pressure algorithm in performing the calculations. The predicted velocity profiles were in good qualitative agreement with the in vivo measurements recently obtained by Jones et al. The non-Newtonian effects on the bifurcation flow field were also investigated, and no great differences in velocity profiles were observed. This indicated that the non-Newtonian characteristics of the blood might not be an important factor in determining the general flow patterns for these bifurcations, but could have local significance. Current work involves modeling wall distensibility in an empirically valid manner. Predictions accommodating these will permit a true quantitative comparison with experiment.

Does rational selection of training and test sets improve the outcome of QSAR modeling?

PubMed

Martin, Todd M; Harten, Paul; Young, Douglas M; Muratov, Eugene N; Golbraikh, Alexander; Zhu, Hao; Tropsha, Alexander

2012-10-22

Prior to using a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) model for external predictions, its predictive power should be established and validated. In the absence of a true external data set, the best way to validate the predictive ability of a model is to perform its statistical external validation. In statistical external validation, the overall data set is divided into training and test sets. Commonly, this splitting is performed using random division. Rational splitting methods can divide data sets into training and test sets in an intelligent fashion. The purpose of this study was to determine whether rational division methods lead to more predictive models compared to random division. A special data splitting procedure was used to facilitate the comparison between random and rational division methods. For each toxicity end point, the overall data set was divided into a modeling set (80% of the overall set) and an external evaluation set (20% of the overall set) using random division. The modeling set was then subdivided into a training set (80% of the modeling set) and a test set (20% of the modeling set) using rational division methods and by using random division. The Kennard-Stone, minimal test set dissimilarity, and sphere exclusion algorithms were used as the rational division methods. The hierarchical clustering, random forest, and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) methods were used to develop QSAR models based on the training sets. For kNN QSAR, multiple training and test sets were generated, and multiple QSAR models were built. The results of this study indicate that models based on rational division methods generate better statistical results for the test sets than models based on random division, but the predictive power of both types of models are comparable.

Parameter Estimation in Astronomy with Poisson-Distributed Data. 1; The (CHI)2(gamma) Statistic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mighell, Kenneth J.

1999-01-01

Applying the standard weighted mean formula, [Sigma (sub i)n(sub i)ssigma(sub i, sup -2)], to determine the weighted mean of data, n(sub i), drawn from a Poisson distribution, will, on average, underestimate the true mean by approx. 1 for all true mean values larger than approx.3 when the common assumption is made that the error of the i th observation is sigma(sub i) = max square root of n(sub i), 1).This small, but statistically significant offset, explains the long-known observation that chi-square minimization techniques which use the modified Neyman'chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub N) equivalent Sigma(sub i)((n(sub i) - y(sub i)(exp 2)) / max(n(sub i), 1), to compare Poisson - distributed data with model values, y(sub i), will typically predict a total number of counts that underestimates the true total by about 1 count per bin. Based on my finding that weighted mean of data drawn from a Poisson distribution can be determined using the formula [Sigma(sub i)[n(sub i) + min(n(sub i), 1)](n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1)] / [Sigma(sub i)(n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1))], I propose that a new chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub gamma) equivalent, should always be used to analyze Poisson- distributed data in preference to the modified Neyman's chi(exp 2) statistic. I demonstrated the power and usefulness of,chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization by using two statistical fitting techniques and five chi(exp 2) statistics to analyze simulated X-ray power - low 15 - channel spectra with large and small counts per bin. I show that chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization with the Levenberg - Marquardt or Powell's method can produce excellent results (mean slope errors approx. less than 3%) with spectra having as few as 25 total counts.

Forecasting Strategies for Predicting Peak Electric Load Days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saxena, Harshit

Academic institutions spend thousands of dollars every month on their electric power consumption. Some of these institutions follow a demand charges pricing structure; here the amount a customer pays to the utility is decided based on the total energy consumed during the month, with an additional charge based on the highest average power load required by the customer over a moving window of time as decided by the utility. Therefore, it is crucial for these institutions to minimize the time periods where a high amount of electric load is demanded over a short duration of time. In order to reduce the peak loads and have more uniform energy consumption, it is imperative to predict when these peaks occur, so that appropriate mitigation strategies can be developed. The research work presented in this thesis has been conducted for Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT), where the demand charges are decided based on a 15 minute sliding window panned over the entire month. This case study makes use of different statistical and machine learning algorithms to develop a forecasting strategy for predicting the peak electric load days of the month. The proposed strategy was tested for a whole year starting May 2015 to April 2016 during which a total of 57 peak days were observed. The model predicted a total of 74 peak days during this period, 40 of these cases were true positives, hence achieving an accuracy level of 70 percent. The results obtained with the proposed forecasting strategy are promising and demonstrate an annual savings potential worth about $80,000 for a single submeter of RIT.

18 CFR 420.45 - Historical use.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... question on March 31, 1971, shall not be entitled to a certificate of entitlement. Hydroelectric Power... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Historical use. 420.45 Section 420.45 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE...

Prospective performance evaluation of selected common virtual screening tools. Case study: Cyclooxygenase (COX) 1 and 2.

PubMed

Kaserer, Teresa; Temml, Veronika; Kutil, Zsofia; Vanek, Tomas; Landa, Premysl; Schuster, Daniela

2015-01-01

Computational methods can be applied in drug development for the identification of novel lead candidates, but also for the prediction of pharmacokinetic properties and potential adverse effects, thereby aiding to prioritize and identify the most promising compounds. In principle, several techniques are available for this purpose, however, which one is the most suitable for a specific research objective still requires further investigation. Within this study, the performance of several programs, representing common virtual screening methods, was compared in a prospective manner. First, we selected top-ranked virtual screening hits from the three methods pharmacophore modeling, shape-based modeling, and docking. For comparison, these hits were then additionally predicted by external pharmacophore- and 2D similarity-based bioactivity profiling tools. Subsequently, the biological activities of the selected hits were assessed in vitro, which allowed for evaluating and comparing the prospective performance of the applied tools. Although all methods performed well, considerable differences were observed concerning hit rates, true positive and true negative hits, and hitlist composition. Our results suggest that a rational selection of the applied method represents a powerful strategy to maximize the success of a research project, tightly linked to its aims. We employed cyclooxygenase as application example, however, the focus of this study lied on highlighting the differences in the virtual screening tool performances and not in the identification of novel COX-inhibitors. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.. All rights reserved.

32 CFR 553.9 - Power of arrest.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Power of arrest. 553.9 Section 553.9 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY MILITARY RESERVATIONS AND NATIONAL CEMETERIES ARMY NATIONAL CEMETERIES § 553.9 Power of arrest. The superintendents of Army national cemeteries...

29 CFR 90.14 - Subpoena power.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Subpoena power. 90.14 Section 90.14 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor CERTIFICATION OF ELIGIBILITY TO APPLY FOR WORKER ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE Petitions and Determinations of Eligibility To Apply for Adjustment Assistance § 90.14 Subpoena power. (a) The Director may...

7 CFR 1150.139 - Powers of the Board.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE DAIRY PROMOTION PROGRAM Dairy Promotion and Research Order National Dairy Promotion and Research Board § 1150.139 Powers of the Board. The Board shall have... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Powers of the Board. 1150.139 Section 1150.139...

18 CFR 808.4 - Optional joint hearing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Optional joint hearing. 808.4 Section 808.4 Conservation of Power and Water Resources SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN COMMISSION... or exercise any power or duty as a result of such additional designation to decide the merits of any...

A deformation-processed Al-matrix/Ca-nanofilamentary composite with low density, high strength, and high conductivity

DOE PAGES

Tian, Liang

2017-03-06

Light, strong materials with high conductivity are desired for many applications such as power transmission conductors, fly-by-wire systems, and downhole power feeds. However, it is difficult to obtain both high strength and high conductivity simultaneously in a material. In this study, an Al/Ca (20 vol%) nanofilamentary metal-metal composite was produced by powder metallurgy and severe plastic deformation. Fine Ca metal powders (~200 µm) were produced by centrifugal atomization, mixed with pure Al powder, and deformed by warm extrusion, swaging, and wire drawing to a true strain of 12.9. The Ca powder particles became fine Ca nanofilaments that reinforce the compositemore » substantially by interface strengthening. The conductivity of the composite is slightly lower than the rule-of-mixtures prediction due to minor quantities of impurity inclusions. As a result, the elevated temperature performance of this composite was also evaluated by differential scanning calorimetry and resistivity measurements.« less

A deformation-processed Al-matrix/Ca-nanofilamentary composite with low density, high strength, and high conductivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Liang

Light, strong materials with high conductivity are desired for many applications such as power transmission conductors, fly-by-wire systems, and downhole power feeds. However, it is difficult to obtain both high strength and high conductivity simultaneously in a material. In this study, an Al/Ca (20 vol%) nanofilamentary metal-metal composite was produced by powder metallurgy and severe plastic deformation. Fine Ca metal powders (~200 µm) were produced by centrifugal atomization, mixed with pure Al powder, and deformed by warm extrusion, swaging, and wire drawing to a true strain of 12.9. The Ca powder particles became fine Ca nanofilaments that reinforce the compositemore » substantially by interface strengthening. The conductivity of the composite is slightly lower than the rule-of-mixtures prediction due to minor quantities of impurity inclusions. As a result, the elevated temperature performance of this composite was also evaluated by differential scanning calorimetry and resistivity measurements.« less

Prediction of enhancer-promoter interactions via natural language processing.

PubMed

Zeng, Wanwen; Wu, Mengmeng; Jiang, Rui

2018-05-09

Precise identification of three-dimensional genome organization, especially enhancer-promoter interactions (EPIs), is important to deciphering gene regulation, cell differentiation and disease mechanisms. Currently, it is a challenging task to distinguish true interactions from other nearby non-interacting ones since the power of traditional experimental methods is limited due to low resolution or low throughput. We propose a novel computational framework EP2vec to assay three-dimensional genomic interactions. We first extract sequence embedding features, defined as fixed-length vector representations learned from variable-length sequences using an unsupervised deep learning method in natural language processing. Then, we train a classifier to predict EPIs using the learned representations in supervised way. Experimental results demonstrate that EP2vec obtains F1 scores ranging from 0.841~ 0.933 on different datasets, which outperforms existing methods. We prove the robustness of sequence embedding features by carrying out sensitivity analysis. Besides, we identify motifs that represent cell line-specific information through analysis of the learned sequence embedding features by adopting attention mechanism. Last, we show that even superior performance with F1 scores 0.889~ 0.940 can be achieved by combining sequence embedding features and experimental features. EP2vec sheds light on feature extraction for DNA sequences of arbitrary lengths and provides a powerful approach for EPIs identification.

A Comparison of Simple Methods to Incorporate Material Temperature Dependency in the Green's Function Method for Estimating Transient Thermal Stresses in Thick-Walled Power Plant Components.

PubMed

Rouse, James; Hyde, Christopher

2016-01-06

The threat of thermal fatigue is an increasing concern for thermal power plant operators due to the increasing tendency to adopt "two-shifting" operating procedures. Thermal plants are likely to remain part of the energy portfolio for the foreseeable future and are under societal pressures to generate in a highly flexible and efficient manner. The Green's function method offers a flexible approach to determine reference elastic solutions for transient thermal stress problems. In order to simplify integration, it is often assumed that Green's functions (derived from finite element unit temperature step solutions) are temperature independent (this is not the case due to the temperature dependency of material parameters). The present work offers a simple method to approximate a material's temperature dependency using multiple reference unit solutions and an interpolation procedure. Thermal stress histories are predicted and compared for realistic temperature cycles using distinct techniques. The proposed interpolation method generally performs as well as (if not better) than the optimum single Green's function or the previously-suggested weighting function technique (particularly for large temperature increments). Coefficients of determination are typically above 0 . 96 , and peak stress differences between true and predicted datasets are always less than 10 MPa.

Addendum to the article: Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

PubMed

Bundschuh, Mirco; Newman, Michael C; Zubrod, Jochen P; Seitz, Frank; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Schulz, Ralf

2015-03-01

We argued recently that the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) are valuable metrics to include during null hypothesis significance testing: They inform the researcher about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes actually being true. Although commonly misunderstood, a reported p value estimates only the probability of obtaining the results or more extreme results if the null hypothesis of no effect was true. Calculations of the more informative PPV and NPV require a priori estimate of the probability (R). The present document discusses challenges of estimating R.

Gaussian Process Regression for Predictive But Interpretable Machine Learning Models: An Example of Predicting Mental Workload across Tasks

PubMed Central

Caywood, Matthew S.; Roberts, Daniel M.; Colombe, Jeffrey B.; Greenwald, Hal S.; Weiland, Monica Z.

2017-01-01

There is increasing interest in real-time brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) for the passive monitoring of human cognitive state, including cognitive workload. Too often, however, effective BCIs based on machine learning techniques may function as “black boxes” that are difficult to analyze or interpret. In an effort toward more interpretable BCIs, we studied a family of N-back working memory tasks using a machine learning model, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), which was both powerful and amenable to analysis. Participants performed the N-back task with three stimulus variants, auditory-verbal, visual-spatial, and visual-numeric, each at three working memory loads. GPR models were trained and tested on EEG data from all three task variants combined, in an effort to identify a model that could be predictive of mental workload demand regardless of stimulus modality. To provide a comparison for GPR performance, a model was additionally trained using multiple linear regression (MLR). The GPR model was effective when trained on individual participant EEG data, resulting in an average standardized mean squared error (sMSE) between true and predicted N-back levels of 0.44. In comparison, the MLR model using the same data resulted in an average sMSE of 0.55. We additionally demonstrate how GPR can be used to identify which EEG features are relevant for prediction of cognitive workload in an individual participant. A fraction of EEG features accounted for the majority of the model’s predictive power; using only the top 25% of features performed nearly as well as using 100% of features. Subsets of features identified by linear models (ANOVA) were not as efficient as subsets identified by GPR. This raises the possibility of BCIs that require fewer model features while capturing all of the information needed to achieve high predictive accuracy. PMID:28123359

Clinical prediction rule for suspected scaphoid fractures: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rhemrev, S J; Beeres, F J P; van Leerdam, R H; Hogervorst, M; Ring, D

2010-10-01

The low prevalence of true fractures amongst suspected fractures magnifies the shortcomings of the diagnostic tests used to triage suspected scaphoid fractures. The objective was to develop a clinical prediction rule that would yield a subset of patients who were more likely to have a scaphoid fracture than others who lacked the subset criteria. Seventy-eight consecutive patients diagnosed with a suspected scaphoid fracture were included. Standardised patient history, physical examination, range of motion (ROM) and strength measurements were studied. The reference standard for a true fracture was based on the results of magnetic resonance imaging, bone scintigraphy, follow-up radiographs and examination. Analysis revealed three significant independent predictors: extension <50%, supination strength ≤ 10% and the presence of a previous fracture. Clinical prediction rules have the potential to increase the prevalence of true fractures amongst patients with suspected scaphoid fractures, which can increase the diagnostic performance characteristics of radiological diagnostic tests used for triage. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intraocular lens power calculations for cataract surgery after phototherapeutic keratectomy in granular corneal dystrophy type 2.

PubMed

Jung, Se Hwan; Han, Kyung Eun; Sgrignoli, Bradford; Kim, Tae-Im; Lee, Hyung Keun; Kim, Eung Kweon

2012-10-01

To investigate the predictability of various intraocular lens (IOL) power calculation methods in granular corneal dystrophy type 2 (GCD2) with prior phototherapeutic keratectomy (PTK) and to suggest the more predictable IOL power calculation method. Medical records of 20 eyes from 16 patients with GCD2, all having undergone cataract surgery after PTK, were retrospectively evaluated. Postoperative cataract refractive errors were compared with target diopters (D) using IOL power calculation methods as follows: 1) myopic and 2) hyperopic Haigis-L formula in IOLMaster (Carl Zeiss Meditec); 3) SRK/T formula using 4.5-mm zone Holladay equivalent keratometry readings (EKRs) (single-K Holladay EKRs method); 4) central keratometry power of true net power map in the Pentacam system (Oculus Optikgeräte GmbH); and 5) clinical history, Aramberri double-K, and double-K Holladay EKRs methods. Topographic status of corneal curvature after PTK was evaluated. Fourteen (70%) of 20 eyes showed central island formation after PTK. When central island was present, the mean absolute error (MAE) using the hyperopic Haigis-L formula was 0.25±0.15 D. When central island was not present, the myopic Haigis-L formula showed MAE of 0.33±0.16 D. When central island formation and IOLMaster keratometry underestimation were present, the hyperopic Haigis-L formula showed the least MAE of 0.26±0.08 D when switching the IOL-Master keratometry values equal to 4.5-mm zone Holladay EKRs. In planning for cataract surgery after PTK in GCD2, topographic analysis for central island formation is necessary. With or without central island formation, the hyperopic or myopic Haigis-L formula can be applied. When IOLMaster keratometry shows underestimation, the Haigis-L formula using 4.5-mm zone Holladay EKRs can be considered. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

Application of hidden Markov models to biological data mining: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Michael M.; Wang, Jason T.

2000-04-01

In this paper we present an example of biological data mining: the detection of splicing junction acceptors in eukaryotic genes. Identification or prediction of transcribed sequences from within genomic DNA has been a major rate-limiting step in the pursuit of genes. Programs currently available are far from being powerful enough to elucidate the gene structure completely. Here we develop a hidden Markov model (HMM) to represent the degeneracy features of splicing junction acceptor sites in eukaryotic genes. The HMM system is fully trained using an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and the system performance is evaluated using the 10-way cross- validation method. Experimental results show that our HMM system can correctly classify more than 94% of the candidate sequences (including true and false acceptor sites) into right categories. About 90% of the true acceptor sites and 96% of the false acceptor sites in the test data are classified correctly. These results are very promising considering that only the local information in DNA is used. The proposed model will be a very important component of an effective and accurate gene structure detection system currently being developed in our lab.

Model Selection in Systems Biology Depends on Experimental Design

PubMed Central

Silk, Daniel; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Barnes, Chris P.; Toni, Tina; Stumpf, Michael P. H.

2014-01-01

Experimental design attempts to maximise the information available for modelling tasks. An optimal experiment allows the inferred models or parameters to be chosen with the highest expected degree of confidence. If the true system is faithfully reproduced by one of the models, the merit of this approach is clear - we simply wish to identify it and the true parameters with the most certainty. However, in the more realistic situation where all models are incorrect or incomplete, the interpretation of model selection outcomes and the role of experimental design needs to be examined more carefully. Using a novel experimental design and model selection framework for stochastic state-space models, we perform high-throughput in-silico analyses on families of gene regulatory cascade models, to show that the selected model can depend on the experiment performed. We observe that experimental design thus makes confidence a criterion for model choice, but that this does not necessarily correlate with a model's predictive power or correctness. Finally, in the special case of linear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, we explore how wrong a model has to be before it influences the conclusions of a model selection analysis. PMID:24922483

Model selection in systems biology depends on experimental design.

PubMed

Silk, Daniel; Kirk, Paul D W; Barnes, Chris P; Toni, Tina; Stumpf, Michael P H

2014-06-01

Experimental design attempts to maximise the information available for modelling tasks. An optimal experiment allows the inferred models or parameters to be chosen with the highest expected degree of confidence. If the true system is faithfully reproduced by one of the models, the merit of this approach is clear - we simply wish to identify it and the true parameters with the most certainty. However, in the more realistic situation where all models are incorrect or incomplete, the interpretation of model selection outcomes and the role of experimental design needs to be examined more carefully. Using a novel experimental design and model selection framework for stochastic state-space models, we perform high-throughput in-silico analyses on families of gene regulatory cascade models, to show that the selected model can depend on the experiment performed. We observe that experimental design thus makes confidence a criterion for model choice, but that this does not necessarily correlate with a model's predictive power or correctness. Finally, in the special case of linear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, we explore how wrong a model has to be before it influences the conclusions of a model selection analysis.

Prediction of Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) Score Using Acoustic Measurements in a Sample of Iium Engineering Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fikri Zanil, Muhamad; Nur Wahidah Nik Hashim, Nik; Azam, Huda

2017-11-01

Psychiatrist currently relies on questionnaires and interviews for psychological assessment. These conservative methods often miss true positives and might lead to death, especially in cases where a patient might be experiencing suicidal predisposition but was only diagnosed as major depressive disorder (MDD). With modern technology, an assessment tool might aid psychiatrist with a more accurate diagnosis and thus hope to reduce casualty. This project will explore on the relationship between speech features of spoken audio signal (reading) in Bahasa Malaysia with the Beck Depression Inventory scores. The speech features used in this project were Power Spectral Density (PSD), Mel-frequency Ceptral Coefficients (MFCC), Transition Parameter, formant and pitch. According to analysis, the optimum combination of speech features to predict BDI-II scores include PSD, MFCC and Transition Parameters. The linear regression approach with sequential forward/backward method was used to predict the BDI-II scores using reading speech. The result showed 0.4096 mean absolute error (MAE) for female reading speech. For male, the BDI-II scores successfully predicted 100% less than 1 scores difference with MAE of 0.098437. A prediction system called Depression Severity Evaluator (DSE) was developed. The DSE managed to predict one out of five subjects. Although the prediction rate was low, the system precisely predict the score within the maximum difference of 4.93 for each person. This demonstrates that the scores are not random numbers.

The Importance of Teaching Power in Statistical Hypothesis Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olinsky, Alan; Schumacher, Phyllis; Quinn, John

2012-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the importance of teaching power considerations in statistical hypothesis testing. Statistical power analysis determines the ability of a study to detect a meaningful effect size, where the effect size is the difference between the hypothesized value of the population parameter under the null hypothesis and the true value…

Impact of Measurement Error on Statistical Power: Review of an Old Paradox.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Richard H.; And Others

1995-01-01

The paradox that a Student t-test based on pretest-posttest differences can attain its greatest power when the difference score reliability is zero was explained by demonstrating that power is not a mathematical function of reliability unless either true score variance or error score variance is constant. (SLD)

22 CFR 906.6 - Powers of presiding member.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Powers of presiding member. 906.6 Section 906.6 Foreign Relations FOREIGN SERVICE GRIEVANCE BOARD HEARINGS § 906.6 Powers of presiding member. In... extensions of time; (j) Reopen the record; (k) Take any other action in the course of the proceedings...

22 CFR 906.6 - Powers of presiding member.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2011-04-01 2009-04-01 true Powers of presiding member. 906.6 Section 906.6 Foreign Relations FOREIGN SERVICE GRIEVANCE BOARD HEARINGS § 906.6 Powers of presiding member. In... extensions of time; (j) Reopen the record; (k) Take any other action in the course of the proceedings...

Electronic Discourses in a Graduate Seminar: MOO Conferences as Liminal Discursive Spaces.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouzie, Albert

Power relations between professors and graduate students are fluid, in many ways under continuous negotiation. This is especially true in electronically mediated interchanges. Although a professor's power and authority far from disappear in a MOO (multi-user object-oriented domain) session, the power and influence of the students rise to challenge…

Arkansas 50m Wind Power Class

Science.gov Websites

Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: vector digital data Other_Citation_Details: The wind power resource estimates were produced by AWS TrueWind using their MesoMap system and historical weather data under contract to Wind Powering America/NREL. This map has been validated with available surface data by NREL and wind energy

Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pullkkinen, A.

2011-01-01

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

A Bayesian adaptive design for biomarker trials with linked treatments.

PubMed

Wason, James M S; Abraham, Jean E; Baird, Richard D; Gournaris, Ioannis; Vallier, Anne-Laure; Brenton, James D; Earl, Helena M; Mander, Adrian P

2015-09-01

Response to treatments is highly heterogeneous in cancer. Increased availability of biomarkers and targeted treatments has led to the need for trial designs that efficiently test new treatments in biomarker-stratified patient subgroups. We propose a novel Bayesian adaptive randomisation (BAR) design for use in multi-arm phase II trials where biomarkers exist that are potentially predictive of a linked treatment's effect. The design is motivated in part by two phase II trials that are currently in development. The design starts by randomising patients to the control treatment or to experimental treatments that the biomarker profile suggests should be active. At interim analyses, data from treated patients are used to update the allocation probabilities. If the linked treatments are effective, the allocation remains high; if ineffective, the allocation changes over the course of the trial to unlinked treatments that are more effective. Our proposed design has high power to detect treatment effects if the pairings of treatment with biomarker are correct, but also performs well when alternative pairings are true. The design is consistently more powerful than parallel-groups stratified trials. This BAR design is a powerful approach to use when there are pairings of biomarkers with treatments available for testing simultaneously.

Convergence in parameters and predictions using computational experimental design.

PubMed

Hagen, David R; White, Jacob K; Tidor, Bruce

2013-08-06

Typically, biological models fitted to experimental data suffer from significant parameter uncertainty, which can lead to inaccurate or uncertain predictions. One school of thought holds that accurate estimation of the true parameters of a biological system is inherently problematic. Recent work, however, suggests that optimal experimental design techniques can select sets of experiments whose members probe complementary aspects of a biochemical network that together can account for its full behaviour. Here, we implemented an experimental design approach for selecting sets of experiments that constrain parameter uncertainty. We demonstrated with a model of the epidermal growth factor-nerve growth factor pathway that, after synthetically performing a handful of optimal experiments, the uncertainty in all 48 parameters converged below 10 per cent. Furthermore, the fitted parameters converged to their true values with a small error consistent with the residual uncertainty. When untested experimental conditions were simulated with the fitted models, the predicted species concentrations converged to their true values with errors that were consistent with the residual uncertainty. This paper suggests that accurate parameter estimation is achievable with complementary experiments specifically designed for the task, and that the resulting parametrized models are capable of accurate predictions.

18 CFR 1312.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Definitions. 1312.3 Section 1312.3 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY PROTECTION OF... subsurface artifact concentrations or scatters; (iii) Whole or fragmentary tools, implements, containers...

Influence of the effective lens position, as predicted by axial length and keratometry, on the near add power of multifocal intraocular lenses.

PubMed

Savini, Giacomo; Hoffer, Kenneth J; Lombardo, Marco; Serrao, Sebastiano; Schiano-Lomoriello, Domenico; Ducoli, Pietro

2016-01-01

To calculate the near focal distance of different multifocal intraocular lenses (IOLs) as a function of the 2 parameters that are measured before cataract surgery; that is, axial length (AL) and refractive corneal power (keratometry [K]). GB Bietti Foundation IRCCS, Rome, Italy. Noninterventional theoretical study. The IOL power for emmetropia was first calculated in an eye model with the AL ranging from 20 to 30 mm and K from 38 to 48 diopters (D). Then, the predicted myopic refraction for any given IOL add power (from +1.5 to +4.0 D) was calculated, and from this value the near focal distance was obtained. Calculations were also performed for the average eye (K = 43.81 D; AL = 23.65 mm). The near focal distance increased with increasing values of K and AL for each near power add. The near focal distance ranged between 53 cm and 72 cm (21 inches and 28 inches) for a multifocal IOL with +2.50 D, between 44 cm and 60 cm (17 inches and 24 inches) for a multifocal IOL with +3.00 D add, and between 33 cm and 44 cm (13 inches and 18 inches) for a multifocal IOL with +4.00 D add. In the average eye, the near focal distance ranges between 36 cm (near add power = 4.00 D) and 99 cm (near add power = 1.5 D). Longer eyes with steeper corneas showed the longest near focal distance and could experience more difficulties in focusing near objects after surgery. The opposite was true for short hyperopic eyes. Dr. Hoffer receives licensing fees for the commercial use of the registered trademark Hoffer from all biometry manufacturers using the Hoffer Q formula to ensure that it is programmed correctly and book royalties from Slack, Inc., for the textbook IOL Power. None of the authors has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Copyright © 2016 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probability of success for phase III after exploratory biomarker analysis in phase II.

PubMed

Götte, Heiko; Kirchner, Marietta; Sailer, Martin Oliver

2017-05-01

The probability of success or average power describes the potential of a future trial by weighting the power with a probability distribution of the treatment effect. The treatment effect estimate from a previous trial can be used to define such a distribution. During the development of targeted therapies, it is common practice to look for predictive biomarkers. The consequence is that the trial population for phase III is often selected on the basis of the most extreme result from phase II biomarker subgroup analyses. In such a case, there is a tendency to overestimate the treatment effect. We investigate whether the overestimation of the treatment effect estimate from phase II is transformed into a positive bias for the probability of success for phase III. We simulate a phase II/III development program for targeted therapies. This simulation allows to investigate selection probabilities and allows to compare the estimated with the true probability of success. We consider the estimated probability of success with and without subgroup selection. Depending on the true treatment effects, there is a negative bias without selection because of the weighting by the phase II distribution. In comparison, selection increases the estimated probability of success. Thus, selection does not lead to a bias in probability of success if underestimation due to the phase II distribution and overestimation due to selection cancel each other out. We recommend to perform similar simulations in practice to get the necessary information about the risk and chances associated with such subgroup selection designs. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide triggering in Switzerland from daily gridded precipitation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonarduzzi, E.; Molnar, P.; McArdell, B. W.

2017-12-01

In Switzerland floods are responsible for most of the damage caused by rainfall-triggered natural hazards (89%), followed by landslides (6%, almost 600 M USD) as reported in Hilker et al. (2009) for the period 1972-2007. A high-resolution gridded daily precipitation dataset is combined with a landslide inventory containing over 2000 events in the period 1972-2012 to analyze rainfall thresholds that lead to landsliding in Switzerland. First triggering rainfall and landslides are co-located obtaining the distributions of triggering and non-triggering rainfall event properties at the scale of the precipitation data (2*2 km2) and considering 1 day as the interarrival time to separate events. Then rainfall thresholds are obtained by maximizing true positives (accurate predictions) while minimizing false negatives (false alarms), using the True Skill Statistic. The best predictive performance is obtained by the intensity-duration ID threshold curve, followed by peak daily intensity (Imax) and mean event intensity (Imean). Event duration by itself has very low predictive power. In addition to country-wide thresholds, local ones are also defined by regionalization based on surface erodibility and local long-term climate (mean daily precipitation). Different Imax thresholds are determined for each of the regions separately. It is found that wetter local climate and lower erodibility lead to significantly higher rainfall thresholds required to trigger landslides. However, the improvement in model performance due to regionalization is marginal and much lower than what can be achieved by having a high quality landslide database. In order to validate the performance of the Imax rainfall threshold model, reference cases will be presented in which the landslide locations and timing are randomized and the landslide sample size is reduced. Jack-knife and cross-validation experiments demonstrate that the model is robust. The results highlight the potential of using rainfall I-D threshold curves and Imax threshold values for predicting the occurrence of landslides on a country or regional scale even with daily precipitation data, with possible applications in landslide warning systems.

Validating the relationship between 3-dimensional body acceleration and oxygen consumption in trained Steller sea lions.

PubMed

Volpov, Beth L; Rosen, David A S; Trites, Andrew W; Arnould, John P Y

2015-08-01

We tested the ability of overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) to predict the rate of oxygen consumption ([Formula: see text]) in freely diving Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) while resting at the surface and diving. The trained sea lions executed three dive types-single dives, bouts of multiple long dives with 4-6 dives per bout, or bouts of multiple short dives with 10-12 dives per bout-to depths of 40 m, resulting in a range of activity and oxygen consumption levels. Average metabolic rate (AMR) over the dive cycle or dive bout calculated was calculated from [Formula: see text]. We found that ODBA could statistically predict AMR when data from all dive types were combined, but that dive type was a significant model factor. However, there were no significant linear relationships between AMR and ODBA when data for each dive type were analyzed separately. The potential relationships between AMR and ODBA were not improved by including dive duration, food consumed, proportion of dive cycle spent submerged, or number of dives per bout. It is not clear whether the lack of predictive power within dive type was due to low statistical power, or whether it reflected a true absence of a relationship between ODBA and AMR. The average percent error for predicting AMR from ODBA was 7-11 %, and standard error of the estimated AMR was 5-32 %. Overall, the extensive range of dive behaviors and physiological conditions we tested indicated that ODBA was not suitable for estimating AMR in the field due to considerable error and the inconclusive effects of dive type.

Analysis of Covariance: Is It the Appropriate Model to Study Change?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marston, Paul T., Borich, Gary D.

The four main approaches to measuring treatment effects in schools; raw gain, residual gain, covariance, and true scores; were compared. A simulation study showed true score analysis produced a large number of Type-I errors. When corrected for this error, this method showed the least power of the four. This outcome was clearly the result of the…

18 CFR 341.1 - Electronic filing of tariffs and related materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... contents are true to the best knowledge and belief of the signer, and that the signer possesses full power... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Electronic filing of tariffs and related materials. 341.1 Section 341.1 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL...

22 CFR 1423.19 - Duties and powers of the Administrative Law Judge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Duties and powers of the Administrative Law... RELATIONS AUTHORITY UNFAIR LABOR PRACTICE PROCEEDINGS § 1423.19 Duties and powers of the Administrative Law Judge. It shall be the duty of the Administrative Law Judge to inquire fully into the facts as they...

25 CFR 169.27 - Power projects.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Power projects. 169.27 Section 169.27 Indians BUREAU OF... projects. (a) The Act of March 4, 1911 (36 Stat. 1253), as amended by the Act of May 27, 1952 (66 Stat. 95... on any project for the generation of electric power, or the transmission or distribution of...

18 CFR 1304.201 - Applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... corridors, and vegetation management activities by owners of adjacent upland residential property shall not... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Applicability. 1304.201 Section 1304.201 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY APPROVAL OF...

18 CFR 707.3 - Applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Applicability. 707.3 Section 707.3 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COMPLIANCE WITH THE... to the environmental effects of their proposed actions and to incorporate suitable environmental...

18 CFR 1317.540 - Advertising.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Advertising. 1317.540 Section 1317.540 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NONDISCRIMINATION ON... Advertising. A recipient shall not in any advertising related to employment indicate preference, limitation...

18 CFR 1303.2 - Definition.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Definition. 1303.2 Section 1303.2 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Tobacco Products § 1303.2 Definition. Tobacco product means cigarettes, cigars, little cigars, pipe...

18 CFR 706.208 - Indebtedness.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Indebtedness. 706.208 Section 706.208 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.208 Indebtedness. (a) An employee...

Sensitivity and specificity of intrathecal fluorescein and white light excitation for detecting intraoperative cerebrospinal fluid leak in endoscopic skull base surgery: a prospective study.

PubMed

Raza, Shaan M; Banu, Matei A; Donaldson, Angela; Patel, Kunal S; Anand, Vijay K; Schwartz, Theodore H

2016-03-01

The intraoperative detection of CSF leaks during endonasal endoscopic skull base surgery is critical to preventing postoperative CSF leaks. Intrathecal fluorescein (ITF) has been used at varying doses to aid in the detection of intraoperative CSF leaks. However, the sensitivity and specificity of ITF at certain dosages is unknown. A prospective database of all endoscopic endonasal procedures was reviewed. All patients received 25 mg ITF diluted in 10 ml CSF and were pretreated with dexamethasone and Benadryl. Immediately after surgery, the operating surgeon prospectively noted if there was an intraoperative CSF leak and fluorescein was identified. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive power of ITF for detecting intraoperative CSF leak were calculated. Factors correlating with postoperative CSF leak were determined. Of 419 patients, 35.8% of patients did not show a CSF leak. Fluorescein-tinted CSF (true positive) was noted in 59.7% of patients and 0 false positives were encountered. CSF without fluorescein staining (false negative) was noted in 4.5% of patients. The sensitivity and specificity of ITF were 92.9% and 100%, respectively. The negative and positive predictive values were 88.8% and 100%, respectively. Postoperative CSF leaks only occurred in true positives at a rate of 2.8%. ITF is extremely specific and very sensitive for detecting intraoperative CSF leaks. Although false negatives can occur, these patients do not appear to be at risk for postoperative CSF leak. The use of ITF may help surgeons prevent postoperative CSF leaks by intraoperatively detecting and confirming a watertight repair.

True self-alienation positively predicts reports of mindwandering.

PubMed

Vess, Matthew; Leal, Stephanie A; Hoeldtke, Russell T; Schlegel, Rebecca J; Hicks, Joshua A

2016-10-01

Two studies assessed the relationship between feelings of uncertainty about who one truly is (i.e., true self-alienation) and self-reported task-unrelated thoughts (i.e., mindwandering) during performance tasks. Because true self-alienation is conceptualized as the subjective disconnect between conscious awareness and actual experience, we hypothesized that greater feelings of true self-alienation would positively relate to subjective reports of mindwandering. Two convergent studies supported this hypothesis. Moreover, this relationship could not consistently be accounted for by the independent influence of other aspects of authenticity, negative mood, mindfulness, or broad personality dimensions. These findings suggest that individual differences in true self-alienation are reliably associated with subjective reports of mindwandering. The implications of these findings for the true self-alienation construct, the ways that personality relates to mindwandering, and future research directions focused on curtailing mindwandering and improving performance and achievement are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determination of Dynamic Recrystallization Process by Equivalent Strain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Xiaomei; Deng, Wei

Based on Tpнoвckiй's displacement field, equivalent strain expression was derived. And according to the dynamic recrystallization (DRX) critical strain, DRX process was determined by equivalent strain. It was found that equivalent strain distribution in deformed specimen is inhomogeneous, and it increases with increasing true strain. Under a certain true strain, equivalent strains at the center, demisemi radius or on tangential plane just below the surface of the specimen are higher than the true strain. Thus, micrographs at those positions can not exactly reflect the true microstructures under the certain true strain. With increasing strain rate, the initial and finish time of DRX decrease. The frozen microstructures of 20Mn23AlV steel with the experimental condition validate the feasibility of predicting DRX process by equivalent strain.

Understanding the evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections and associated plasma sheaths in interplanetary space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, Phillip

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is an eruption of magnetized plasma from the Coronaof the Sun. Understanding the physical process of CMEs is a fundamental challenge in solarphysics, and is also of increasing importance for our technological society. CMEs are knownthe main driver of space weather that has adverse effects on satellites, power grids, com-munication and navigation systems and astronauts. Understanding and predicting CMEs is still in the early stage of research. In this dissertation, improved observational methods and advanced theoretical analysis are used to study CMEs. Unlike many studies in the past that treat CMEs as a single object, this study divides aCME into two separate components: the ejecta from the corona and the sheath region thatis the ambient plasma compressed by the shock/wave running ahead of the ejecta; bothstructures are geo-effective but evolve differently. Stereoscopic observations from multiplespacecraft, including STEREO and SOHO, are combined to provide a three-dimensionalgeometric reconstruction of the structures studied. True distances and velocities of CMEs are accurately determined, free of projection effects, and with continuous tracking from the low corona to 1 AU.To understand the kinematic evolution of CMEs, an advanced drag-based model (DBM) is proposed, with several improvements to the original DBM model. The new model varies the drag parameter with distance; the variation is constrained by thenecessary conservation of physical parameters. Second, the deviation of CME-nose from the Sun-Earth-line is taken into account. Third, the geometric correction of the shape of the ejecta front is considered, based on the assumption that the true front is a flattened croissant-shaped flux rope front. These improvements of the DBM model provide a framework for using measurement data to make accurate prediction of the arrival times of CME ejecta and sheaths. Using a set of seven events to test the model, it is found that the evolution of the ejecta front can be accurately predicted, with a slightly poorer performance on the sheath front. To improve the sheath prediction, the standoff-distance between the ejecta and the sheath front is used to model the evolution. The predicted arrivals of both the sheath and ejecta fronts at Earth are determined to within an average 3.5 hours and 1.5 hours of observed arrivals,respectively. These prediction errors show a significant improvement over predictions made by other researches. The results of this dissertation study demonstrate that accurate space weather prediction is possible, and also reveals what observations are needed in the future for realistic operational space weather prediction.

Too True to be Bad: When Sets of Studies With Significant and Nonsignificant Findings Are Probably True.

PubMed

Lakens, Daniël; Etz, Alexander J

2017-11-01

Psychology journals rarely publish nonsignificant results. At the same time, it is often very unlikely (or "too good to be true") that a set of studies yields exclusively significant results. Here, we use likelihood ratios to explain when sets of studies that contain a mix of significant and nonsignificant results are likely to be true or "too true to be bad." As we show, mixed results are not only likely to be observed in lines of research but also, when observed, often provide evidence for the alternative hypothesis, given reasonable levels of statistical power and an adequately controlled low Type 1 error rate. Researchers should feel comfortable submitting such lines of research with an internal meta-analysis for publication. A better understanding of probabilities, accompanied by more realistic expectations of what real sets of studies look like, might be an important step in mitigating publication bias in the scientific literature.

18 CFR 706.405 - Supplementary statements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Supplementary statements. 706.405 Section 706.405 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE.... Changes in, or additions to, the information contained in an employee's statement of employment and...

40 CFR 256.21 - Requirements for State regulatory powers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Requirements for State regulatory powers. 256.21 Section 256.21 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SOLID WASTES GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF STATE SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PLANS Solid Waste...

40 CFR 256.22 - Recommendations for State regulatory powers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Recommendations for State regulatory powers. 256.22 Section 256.22 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SOLID WASTES GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF STATE SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PLANS Solid Waste...

18 CFR 430.3 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Purpose. 430.3 Section 430.3 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION SPECIAL REGULATIONS... implement reasonable water conservation measures and practices, to assure efficient use of limited water...

18 CFR 1307.7 - Assurances required.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Assurances required. 1307.7 Section 1307.7 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NONDISCRIMINATION WITH RESPECT TO HANDICAP § 1307.7 Assurances required. (a) TVA contributes financial assistance...

18 CFR 1307.11 - Hearings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Hearings. 1307.11 Section 1307.11 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NONDISCRIMINATION WITH RESPECT TO HANDICAP § 1307.11 Hearings. (a) Opportunity for hearing. Whenever an opportunity for a...

18 CFR 401.124 - Construction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Construction. 401.124 Section 401.124 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE General Provisions § 401.124 Construction. This part is...

18 CFR 1313.160 - Communications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Communications. 1313.160 Section 1313.160 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY ENFORCEMENT OF... § 1313.160 Communications. (a) The agency shall take appropriate steps to ensure effective communication...

18 CFR 401.113 - Segregable materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Segregable materials. 401.113 Section 401.113 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION... Segregable materials. Any reasonably segregable portion of a record shall be provided to any person...

18 CFR 806.30 - Monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... consumptive use. (4) Measure groundwater levels in all approved production wells, as specified by the... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Monitoring. 806.30 Section 806.30 Conservation of Power and Water Resources SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN COMMISSION REVIEW AND...

18 CFR 701.59 - Advisory committees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Advisory committees. 701.59 Section 701.59 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.59 Advisory committees. The Council may establish standing and ad...

18 CFR 706.210 - Coercion.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Coercion. 706.210 Section 706.210 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.210 Coercion. An employee shall not...

18 CFR 701.102 - Existing committees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Existing committees. 701.102 Section 701.102 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL... Resources Council (formerly under the Inter-Agency Committee on Water Resources) are as follows: Pacific...

18 CFR 706.212 - Miscellaneous statutory provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Miscellaneous statutory provisions. 706.212 Section 706.212 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.212 Miscellaneous...

18 CFR 740.13 - Supplemental instructions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Supplemental instructions. 740.13 Section 740.13 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER MANAGEMENT PLANNING PROGRAM § 740.13 Supplemental instructions. As deemed appropriate, the Council...

18 CFR 706.102 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Definitions. 706.102 Section 706.102 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT General Provisions § 706.102 Definitions. In this part: (a) Employee means the...

18 CFR 701.56 - Observers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Observers. 701.56 Section 701.56 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.56 Observers. (a) Chairmen and Vice-Chairmen of River Basin Commissions...

18 CFR 706.101 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Purpose. 706.101 Section 706.101 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES... to assure the proper performance of the Water Resources Council's (hereafter referred to as the...

18 CFR 701.55 - Associate Members.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Associate Members. 701.55 Section 701.55 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.55 Associate Members. (a) The Chairman, with concurrence of the...

18 CFR 701.1 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true General. 701.1 Section 701.1 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Introduction § 701.1 General. This part describes the organization established by the Water Resources Council...

18 CFR 706.201 - Proscribed actions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Proscribed actions. 706.201 Section 706.201 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.201 Proscribed actions. An employee...

18 CFR 706.204 - Financial interests.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Financial interests. 706.204 Section 706.204 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.204 Financial interests. (a) An...

18 CFR 401.23 - Procedure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Procedure. 401.23 Section 401.23 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Water Resources Program § 401.23 Procedure. Each project included...

18 CFR 701.101 - Field committees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Field committees. 701.101 Section 701.101 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Field Organization § 701.101 Field committees. The Council may establish or continue already...

18 CFR 401.0 - Introduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... the adoption and revision of the Comprehensive Plan, the Water Resources Program, the exercise of the... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Introduction. 401.0 Section 401.0 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE...

SU-F-E-19: A Novel Method for TrueBeam Jaw Calibration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corns, R; Zhao, Y; Huang, V

2016-06-15

Purpose: A simple jaw calibration method is proposed for Varian TrueBeam using an EPID-Encoder combination that gives accurate fields sizes and a homogeneous junction dose. This benefits clinical applications such as mono-isocentric half-beam block breast cancer or head and neck cancer treatment with junction/field matching. Methods: We use EPID imager with pixel size 0.392 mm × 0.392 mm to determine the radiation jaw position as measured from radio-opaque markers aligned with the crosshair. We acquire two images with different symmetric field sizes and record each individual jaw encoder values. A linear relationship between each jaw’s position and its encoder valuemore » is established, from which we predict the encoder values that produce the jaw positions required by TrueBeam’s calibration procedure. During TrueBeam’s jaw calibration procedure, we move the jaw with the pendant to set the jaw into position using the predicted encoder value. The overall accuracy is under 0.1 mm. Results: Our in-house software analyses images and provides sub-pixel accuracy to determine field centre and radiation edges (50% dose of the profile). We verified the TrueBeam encoder provides a reliable linear relationship for each individual jaw position (R{sup 2}>0.9999) from which the encoder values necessary to set jaw calibration points (1 cm and 19 cm) are predicted. Junction matching dose inhomogeneities were improved from >±20% to <±6% using this new calibration protocol. However, one technical challenge exists for junction matching, if the collimator walkout is large. Conclusion: Our new TrueBeam jaw calibration method can systematically calibrate the jaws to crosshair within sub-pixel accuracy and provides both good junction doses and field sizes. This method does not compensate for a larger collimator walkout, but can be used as the underlying foundation for addressing the walkout issue.« less

Is the Ratio of Observed X-ray Luminosity to Bolometric Luminosity in Early-type Stars Really a Constant?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waldron, W. L.

1985-01-01

The observed X-ray emission from early-type stars can be explained by the recombination stellar wind model (or base coronal model). The model predicts that the true X-ray luminosity from the base coronal zone can be 10 to 1000 times greater than the observed X-ray luminosity. From the models, scaling laws were found for the true and observed X-ray luminosities. These scaling laws predict that the ratio of the observed X-ray luminosity to the bolometric luminosity is functionally dependent on several stellar parameters. When applied to several other O and B stars, it is found that the values of the predicted ratio agree very well with the observed values.

12 CFR 550.150 - Who is responsible for the exercise of fiduciary powers?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2014-01-01 2012-01-01 true Who is responsible for the exercise of fiduciary... Facilities § 550.150 Who is responsible for the exercise of fiduciary powers? The exercise of your fiduciary... responsibilities, the board may assign any function related to the exercise of fiduciary powers to any director...

12 CFR 550.150 - Who is responsible for the exercise of fiduciary powers?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2013-01-01 2012-01-01 true Who is responsible for the exercise of fiduciary... Facilities § 550.150 Who is responsible for the exercise of fiduciary powers? The exercise of your fiduciary... responsibilities, the board may assign any function related to the exercise of fiduciary powers to any director...

Method for evaluation of predictive models of microwave ablation via post-procedural clinical imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Jarrod A.; Brown, Daniel; Kingham, T. Peter; Jarnagin, William R.; Miga, Michael I.; Clements, Logan W.

2015-03-01

Development of a clinically accurate predictive model of microwave ablation (MWA) procedures would represent a significant advancement and facilitate an implementation of patient-specific treatment planning to achieve optimal probe placement and ablation outcomes. While studies have been performed to evaluate predictive models of MWA, the ability to quantify the performance of predictive models via clinical data has been limited to comparing geometric measurements of the predicted and actual ablation zones. The accuracy of placement, as determined by the degree of spatial overlap between ablation zones, has not been achieved. In order to overcome this limitation, a method of evaluation is proposed where the actual location of the MWA antenna is tracked and recorded during the procedure via a surgical navigation system. Predictive models of the MWA are then computed using the known position of the antenna within the preoperative image space. Two different predictive MWA models were used for the preliminary evaluation of the proposed method: (1) a geometric model based on the labeling associated with the ablation antenna and (2) a 3-D finite element method based computational model of MWA using COMSOL. Given the follow-up tomographic images that are acquired at approximately 30 days after the procedure, a 3-D surface model of the necrotic zone was generated to represent the true ablation zone. A quantification of the overlap between the predicted ablation zones and the true ablation zone was performed after a rigid registration was computed between the pre- and post-procedural tomograms. While both model show significant overlap with the true ablation zone, these preliminary results suggest a slightly higher degree of overlap with the geometric model.

Exposure measurement error in PM2.5 health effects studies: A pooled analysis of eight personal exposure validation studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Exposure measurement error is a concern in long-term PM2.5 health studies using ambient concentrations as exposures. We assessed error magnitude by estimating calibration coefficients as the association between personal PM2.5 exposures from validation studies and typically available surrogate exposures. Methods Daily personal and ambient PM2.5, and when available sulfate, measurements were compiled from nine cities, over 2 to 12 days. True exposure was defined as personal exposure to PM2.5 of ambient origin. Since PM2.5 of ambient origin could only be determined for five cities, personal exposure to total PM2.5 was also considered. Surrogate exposures were estimated as ambient PM2.5 at the nearest monitor or predicted outside subjects’ homes. We estimated calibration coefficients by regressing true on surrogate exposures in random effects models. Results When monthly-averaged personal PM2.5 of ambient origin was used as the true exposure, calibration coefficients equaled 0.31 (95% CI:0.14, 0.47) for nearest monitor and 0.54 (95% CI:0.42, 0.65) for outdoor home predictions. Between-city heterogeneity was not found for outdoor home PM2.5 for either true exposure. Heterogeneity was significant for nearest monitor PM2.5, for both true exposures, but not after adjusting for city-average motor vehicle number for total personal PM2.5. Conclusions Calibration coefficients were <1, consistent with previously reported chronic health risks using nearest monitor exposures being under-estimated when ambient concentrations are the exposure of interest. Calibration coefficients were closer to 1 for outdoor home predictions, likely reflecting less spatial error. Further research is needed to determine how our findings can be incorporated in future health studies. PMID:24410940

18 CFR 1301.10 - Fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Fees. 1301.10 Section 1301.10 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY PROCEDURES Freedom of... purchase by or subscription by or free distribution to the general public. These examples are not all...

18 CFR 1307.3 - Application.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Application. 1307.3 Section 1307.3 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NONDISCRIMINATION WITH RESPECT TO HANDICAP § 1307.3 Application. This part applies to any program or activity for which financial...

18 CFR 1307.9 - Conduct of investigations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Conduct of investigations. 1307.9 Section 1307.9 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NONDISCRIMINATION WITH RESPECT TO HANDICAP § 1307.9 Conduct of investigations. (a) Periodic compliance reviews. TVA...

18 CFR 1317.505 - Employment criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Employment criteria. 1317.505 Section 1317.505 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY... employment opportunity that has a disproportionately adverse effect on persons on the basis of sex unless: (a...

18 CFR 420.43 - Exempt use.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Exempt use. 420.43 Section 420.43 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL BASIN REGULATIONS-WATER SUPPLY CHARGES Charges; Exemptions § 420.43 Exempt use. The following uses...

18 CFR 1317.510 - Recruitment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Recruitment. 1317.510 Section 1317.510 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NONDISCRIMINATION ON... Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Employment in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 1317.510...

18 CFR 801.2 - Coordination, cooperation, and intergovernmental relations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... with sources of technical and scientific expertise. (5) Share with interested parties results of... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Coordination, cooperation, and intergovernmental relations. 801.2 Section 801.2 Conservation of Power and Water Resources...

18 CFR 420.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Definitions. 420.1 Section 420.1 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL BASIN REGULATIONS-WATER SUPPLY CHARGES General § 420.1 Definitions. For the purposes of this part...

18 CFR 420.44 - Cooling water.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Cooling water. 420.44 Section 420.44 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL BASIN REGULATIONS-WATER SUPPLY CHARGES Charges; Exemptions § 420.44 Cooling water. Water used...

18 CFR 807.2 - Time limits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Time limits. 807.2 Section 807.2 Conservation of Power and Water Resources SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN COMMISSION WATER WITHDRAWAL REGISTRATION § 807.2 Time limits. (a) Except for agricultural water use projects, all registration...

18 CFR 701.4 - Functions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Functions. 701.4 Section 701.4 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Introduction § 701.4 Functions. The functions of the Water Resources Council are: (a) To maintain a continuing...

18 CFR 701.200 - Statement of policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Statement of policy. 701.200 Section 701.200 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Availability of Information § 701.200 Statement of policy. Water Resources Council records and...

18 CFR 701.54 - Interagency Liaison Committee.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Interagency Liaison Committee. 701.54 Section 701.54 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.54 Interagency Liaison Committee. There is established within the...

18 CFR 740.11 - Federal/State coordination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Federal/State coordination. 740.11 Section 740.11 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER MANAGEMENT PLANNING PROGRAM § 740.11 Federal/State coordination. The Council will coordinate the...

18 CFR 706.104 - Interpretation and advisory service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Interpretation and advisory service. 706.104 Section 706.104 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT General Provisions § 706.104 Interpretation and advisory service. The...

18 CFR 707.10 - Scoping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Scoping. 707.10 Section 707.10 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COMPLIANCE WITH THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT (NEPA) Water Resources Council Implementing Procedures § 707.10 Scoping. Scoping will...

18 CFR 701.58 - Task forces.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Task forces. 701.58 Section 701.58 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION... provided administrative and secretarial support by the Water Resources Council Staff to the extent possible...

18 CFR 740.12 - Amendments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Amendments. 740.12 Section 740.12 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER MANAGEMENT PLANNING PROGRAM § 740.12 Amendments. The Council may amend all or portions of these guidelines in...

18 CFR 706.203 - Outside employment and activity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Outside employment and activity. 706.203 Section 706.203 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.203 Outside...

18 CFR 706.303 - Gifts, entertainment, and favors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Gifts, entertainment, and favors. 706.303 Section 706.303 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Special Government Employees § 706...

18 CFR 706.206 - Support of Council programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Support of Council programs. 706.206 Section 706.206 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.206 Support of...

18 CFR 706.304 - Applicability of other provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Applicability of other provisions. 706.304 Section 706.304 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Special Government Employees § 706...

18 CFR 701.100 - Field Directors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Field Directors. 701.100 Section 701.100 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Field Organization § 701.100 Field Directors. The Council may employ as professional staff Field...

18 CFR 706.209 - Gambling, betting, and lotteries.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Gambling, betting, and lotteries. 706.209 Section 706.209 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.209 Gambling, betting...

18 CFR 706.202 - Gifts, entertainment, and favors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Gifts, entertainment, and favors. 706.202 Section 706.202 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.202 Gifts...

18 CFR 706.302 - Use of inside information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Use of inside information. 706.302 Section 706.302 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Special Government Employees § 706...

18 CFR 707.9 - Tiering.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Tiering. 707.9 Section 707.9 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COMPLIANCE WITH THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT (NEPA) Water Resources Council Implementing Procedures § 707.9 Tiering. In accordance...

18 CFR 740.8 - Reporting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Reporting. 740.8 Section 740.8 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER MANAGEMENT..., and shall contain: (1) A summary description of the major accomplishments and results of the water...

18 CFR 701.314 - Exemptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Exemptions. 701.314 Section 701.314 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.314 Exemptions. No Council records system or systems are exempted from the...

18 CFR 701.301 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Definitions. 701.301 Section 701.301 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION... the context: (a) Council means the U.S. Water Resources Council; (b) Individual means a citizen of the...

18 CFR 701.52 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Definitions. 701.52 Section 701.52 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.52 Definitions. As used in this part the term Member means the Secretary of...

18 CFR 701.5 - Organization pattern.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Organization pattern. 701.5 Section 701.5 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Introduction § 701.5 Organization pattern. (a) The Office of the Water Resources Council is...

18 CFR 740.9 - Recordkeeping.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Recordkeeping. 740.9 Section 740.9 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER MANAGEMENT PLANNING PROGRAM § 740.9 Recordkeeping. Each State or other entity within a State receiving financial...

18 CFR 401.21 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Scope. 401.21 Section 401.21 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Water Resources Program § 401.21 Scope. This subpart shall govern the...

18 CFR 1304.1 - Scope and intent.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Scope and intent. 1304.1 Section 1304.1 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY APPROVAL OF..., boathouses, buoys, floats, boat launching ramps, fills, water intakes, devices for discharging effluent...

18 CFR 1304.402 - Wastewater outfalls.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Wastewater outfalls. 1304.402 Section 1304.402 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY APPROVAL... Miscellaneous § 1304.402 Wastewater outfalls. Applicants for a wastewater outfall shall provide copies of all...

18 CFR 808.18 - Settlement by agreement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Settlement by agreement. 808.18 Section 808.18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN COMMISSION HEARINGS AND ENFORCEMENT ACTIONS Compliance and Enforcement § 808.18 Settlement by agreement. (a) An...

18 CFR 1312.18 - Confidentiality of archaeological resource information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Confidentiality of archaeological resource information. 1312.18 Section 1312.18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY PROTECTION OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESOURCES: UNIFORM REGULATIONS § 1312.18 Confidentiality of...

18 CFR 1312.5 - Permit requirements and exceptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Permit requirements and exceptions. 1312.5 Section 1312.5 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY... archaeological resources. General earth-moving excavation conducted under a permit or other authorization shall...

18 CFR 1301.24 - Specific exemptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Specific exemptions. 1301.24 Section 1301.24 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY PROCEDURES... Files-TVA,” and “Nuclear Quality Assurance Personnel Records-TVA” are exempted from subsections (d); (e...

Genes encoding giant danio and golden shiner ependymin.

PubMed

Adams, D S; Kiyokawa, M; Getman, M E; Shashoua, V E

1996-03-01

Ependymin (EPN) is a brain glycoprotein that functions as a neurotrophic factor in optic nerve regeneration and long-term memory consolidation in goldfish. To date, true epn genes have been characterized in one order of teleost fish, Cypriniformes. In the study presented here, polymerase chain reactions were used to analyze the complete epn genes, gd (1480 bp), and sh (2071 bp), from Cypriniformes giant danio and shiner, respectively. Southern hybridizations demonstrated the existence of one copy of each gene per corresponding haploid genome. Each gene was found to contain six exons and five introns. Gene gd encodes a predicted 218-amino acid (aa) protein GD 93 percent conserved to goldfish EPN, while sh encodes a predicted 214-aa protein SH 91 percent homologous to goldfish. Evidence is presented classifying proteins previously termed "EPNs" into two major categories: true EPNs and non-EPN cerebrospinal fluid glycoproteins. Proteins GD and SH contain all the hallmark, features of true EPNs.

Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. Results The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. Conclusions The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the fastest and produced the least biased, the most precise, robust and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. These properties argue for routinely using Methods 5 and 7 to assess predictive accuracy in genomic selection studies. PMID:24314298

Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding.

PubMed

Ould Estaghvirou, Sidi Boubacar; Ogutu, Joseph O; Schulz-Streeck, Torben; Knaak, Carsten; Ouzunova, Milena; Gordillo, Andres; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2013-12-06

In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the fastest and produced the least biased, the most precise, robust and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. These properties argue for routinely using Methods 5 and 7 to assess predictive accuracy in genomic selection studies.

True or False: Do 5-Year-Olds Understand Belief?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fabricius, William V.; Boyer, Ty W.; Weimer, Amy A.; Carroll, Kathleen

2010-01-01

In 3 studies (N = 188) we tested the hypothesis that children use a perceptual access approach to reason about mental states before they understand beliefs. The perceptual access hypothesis predicts a U-shaped developmental pattern of performance in true belief tasks, in which 3-year-olds who reason about reality should succeed, 4- to 5-year-olds…

Push-pull switching power amplifier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cuk, Slobodan M. (Inventor)

1980-01-01

A true push-pull switching power amplifier is disclosed utilizing two dc-to-dc converters. Each converter is comprised of two inductances, one inductance in series with a DC source and the other inductor in series with the output load, and an electrical energy transferring device with storage capability, namely storage capacitance, with suitable switching means between the inductances to obtain DC level conversion, where the switching means allows bidirectional current (and power) flow, and the switching means of one dc-to-dc converter is driven by the complement of a square-wave switching signal for the other dc-to-dc converter for true push-pull operation. For reduction of current ripple, the inductances in each of the two converters may be coupled, and with proper design of the coupling, the ripple can be reduced to zero at either the input or the output, but preferably the output.

Precision, Reliability, and Effect Size of Slope Variance in Latent Growth Curve Models: Implications for Statistical Power Analysis

PubMed Central

Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lindenberger, Ulman; Hertzog, Christopher

2018-01-01

Latent Growth Curve Models (LGCM) have become a standard technique to model change over time. Prediction and explanation of inter-individual differences in change are major goals in lifespan research. The major determinants of statistical power to detect individual differences in change are the magnitude of true inter-individual differences in linear change (LGCM slope variance), design precision, alpha level, and sample size. Here, we show that design precision can be expressed as the inverse of effective error. Effective error is determined by instrument reliability and the temporal arrangement of measurement occasions. However, it also depends on another central LGCM component, the variance of the latent intercept and its covariance with the latent slope. We derive a new reliability index for LGCM slope variance—effective curve reliability (ECR)—by scaling slope variance against effective error. ECR is interpretable as a standardized effect size index. We demonstrate how effective error, ECR, and statistical power for a likelihood ratio test of zero slope variance formally relate to each other and how they function as indices of statistical power. We also provide a computational approach to derive ECR for arbitrary intercept-slope covariance. With practical use cases, we argue for the complementary utility of the proposed indices of a study's sensitivity to detect slope variance when making a priori longitudinal design decisions or communicating study designs. PMID:29755377

Accounting for uncertainty in the historical response rate of the standard treatment in single-arm two-stage designs based on Bayesian power functions.

PubMed

Matano, Francesca; Sambucini, Valeria

2016-11-01

In phase II single-arm studies, the response rate of the experimental treatment is typically compared with a fixed target value that should ideally represent the true response rate for the standard of care therapy. Generally, this target value is estimated through previous data, but the inherent variability in the historical response rate is not taken into account. In this paper, we present a Bayesian procedure to construct single-arm two-stage designs that allows to incorporate uncertainty in the response rate of the standard treatment. In both stages, the sample size determination criterion is based on the concepts of conditional and predictive Bayesian power functions. Different kinds of prior distributions, which play different roles in the designs, are introduced, and some guidelines for their elicitation are described. Finally, some numerical results about the performance of the designs are provided and a real data example is illustrated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

18 CFR 4.39 - Specifications for maps and drawings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... and drawings. 4.39 Section 4.39 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER THE FEDERAL POWER ACT LICENSES, PERMITS, EXEMPTIONS, AND..., large scale maps may be required. Each map must have: (1) True and magnetic meridians; (2) State, county...

18 CFR 4.39 - Specifications for maps and drawings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... and drawings. 4.39 Section 4.39 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER THE FEDERAL POWER ACT LICENSES, PERMITS, EXEMPTIONS, AND..., large scale maps may be required. Each map must have: (1) True and magnetic meridians; (2) State, county...

18 CFR 4.39 - Specifications for maps and drawings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... and drawings. 4.39 Section 4.39 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER THE FEDERAL POWER ACT LICENSES, PERMITS, EXEMPTIONS, AND..., large scale maps may be required. (1) True and magnetic meridians; (2) State, county, and town lines...

18 CFR 4.39 - Specifications for maps and drawings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... and drawings. 4.39 Section 4.39 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER THE FEDERAL POWER ACT LICENSES, PERMITS, EXEMPTIONS, AND..., large scale maps may be required. (1) True and magnetic meridians; (2) State, county, and town lines...

18 CFR 4.39 - Specifications for maps and drawings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... and drawings. 4.39 Section 4.39 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER THE FEDERAL POWER ACT LICENSES, PERMITS, EXEMPTIONS, AND..., large scale maps may be required. Each map must have: (1) True and magnetic meridians; (2) State, county...

18 CFR 401.6 - Proposed revisions and changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Proposed revisions and changes. 401.6 Section 401.6 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Comprehensive Plan § 401.6 Proposed revisions and changes...

18 CFR 725.5 - Council studies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Council studies. 725.5 Section 725.5 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL IMPLEMENTATION OF... Management Guidelines (43 FR 6030), E.O. 11988 and E.O. 11990 provide the basic evaluation tools for these...

18 CFR 1308.31 - Filing and service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Filing and service. 1308.31 Section 1308.31 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY CONTRACT... opposing party may be made personally or by mail. The copy presented for filing shall bear an appropriate...

18 CFR 420.33 - Payment of bills.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Payment of bills. 420.33 Section 420.33 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL BASIN REGULATIONS-WATER SUPPLY CHARGES Entitlement; Measurement; Billing § 420.33 Payment of bills...

18 CFR 1307.12 - Decisions and notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Decisions and notices. 1307.12 Section 1307.12 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NONDISCRIMINATION WITH RESPECT TO HANDICAP § 1307.12 Decisions and notices. (a) Decision by a member of the TVA...

18 CFR 401.87 - Assessment of costs; Appeals.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Assessment of costs; Appeals. 401.87 Section 401.87 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Administrative and Other Hearings § 401.87 Assessment of...

18 CFR 706.411 - Effect of statements on other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Effect of statements on other requirements. 706.411 Section 706.411 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES... Effect of statements on other requirements. The statements of employment and financial interests and...

18 CFR 1317.130 - Effect of employment opportunities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Effect of employment opportunities. 1317.130 Section 1317.130 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY... Introduction § 1317.130 Effect of employment opportunities. The obligation to comply with these Title IX...

18 CFR 1300.105 - National origin harassment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true National origin harassment. 1300.105 Section 1300.105 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY... relating to an individual's national origin when such conduct: (a) Has the purpose or effect of creating an...

18 CFR 1314.1 - Applicability and effect.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Applicability and effect. 1314.1 Section 1314.1 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY BOOK-ENTRY... effect. (a) Applicability. The regulations in this part govern the issuance of, and transactions in, all...

18 CFR 1314.5 - Creation of Participant's Security Entitlement; security interests.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Creation of Participant's Security Entitlement; security interests. 1314.5 Section 1314.5 Conservation of Power and Water... FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS § 1314.5 Creation of Participant's Security Entitlement; security interests. (a) A...

18 CFR 1315.300 - Professional and technical services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Professional and technical services. 1315.300 Section 1315.300 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NEW RESTRICTIONS ON LOBBYING Activities by Other Than Own Employees § 1315.300 Professional and...

18 CFR 1304.300 - Scope and intent.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Scope and intent. 1304.300 Section 1304.300 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY APPROVAL OF... Flowage Easement Shoreland § 1304.300 Scope and intent. Any structure built upon land subject to a flowage...

18 CFR 1303.3 - Prohibition on tobacco products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Prohibition on tobacco products. 1303.3 Section 1303.3 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Tobacco Products § 1303.3 Prohibition on tobacco products. (a) Sale of tobacco products...

18 CFR 415.31 - Prohibited uses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Prohibited uses. 415.31 Section 415.31 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE... structure for occupancy at any time by humans or animals. (2) Placing, or depositing, or dumping any spoil...

18 CFR 801.7 - Water quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Water quality. 801.7 Section 801.7 Conservation of Power and Water Resources SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN COMMISSION GENERAL POLICIES § 801.7 Water quality. (a) The signatory States have the primary responsibility in the basin for...

18 CFR 801.6 - Water supply.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Water supply. 801.6 Section 801.6 Conservation of Power and Water Resources SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN COMMISSION GENERAL POLICIES § 801.6 Water supply. (a) The Susquehanna River Basin is rich in water resources. With proper...

18 CFR 701.311 - Accounting for disclosures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Accounting for disclosures. 701.311 Section 701.311 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.311 Accounting for disclosures. (a) Maintenance of an accounting. (1...

18 CFR 701.77 - Director-duties and responsibilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Director-duties and responsibilities. 701.77 Section 701.77 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL..., and that its overall perspective and independence of judgment with regard to water and related land...

18 CFR 701.57 - Official decisions of the Council.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Official decisions of the Council. 701.57 Section 701.57 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.57 Official decisions of the Council. Official...

18 CFR 701.309 - Appeal of initial adverse determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Appeal of initial adverse determination. 701.309 Section 701.309 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.309 Appeal of initial adverse determination. (a...

18 CFR 701.53 - Council decisions by Members.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Council decisions by Members. 701.53 Section 701.53 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL...) Approval of Annual Budget requests and the Annual Operating Program of the Office of the Water Resources...

18 CFR 704.39 - Discount rate.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Discount rate. 704.39 Section 704.39 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL PLAN FORMULATION... the Water Resources Council of the rate thus computed. (c) Subject to the provisions of paragraphs (d...

18 CFR 701.303 - Conditions of disclosure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Conditions of disclosure. 701.303 Section 701.303 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.303 Conditions of disclosure. (a) Subject to the conditions of...

18 CFR 701.312 - Fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Fees. 701.312 Section 701.312 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.312 Fees. (a) The Council will not charge an individual for the costs of making a...

18 CFR 701.60 - Procedures for revision of rules and regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Procedures for revision of rules and regulations. 701.60 Section 701.60 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER... and regulations. Revisions proposed by the Water Resources Council Members to the Principles and...

18 CFR 701.304 - Procedures for identification of individuals making requests.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Procedures for identification of individuals making requests. 701.304 Section 701.304 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.304 Procedures for...

18 CFR 701.71 - The Chairman.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true The Chairman. 701.71 Section 701.71 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.71 The Chairman. (a) The Chairman shall preside at Council Meetings of Members...

18 CFR 701.306 - Special procedure: Medical records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Special procedure: Medical records. 701.306 Section 701.306 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.306 Special procedure: Medical records. (a) An individual...

18 CFR 740.6 - Financial assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Financial assistance. 740.6 Section 740.6 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER... funds according to the need for water management planning in each State as expressed by the State and...

18 CFR 701.6 - Location of office.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Location of office. 701.6 Section 701.6 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Introduction § 701.6 Location of office. The Headquarters is located in the Washington, DC area. ...

18 CFR 740.7 - Administration of financial assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Administration of financial assistance. 740.7 Section 740.7 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER MANAGEMENT PLANNING PROGRAM § 740.7 Administration of financial assistance. (a) Grants under...

18 CFR 701.2 - Creation and basic authority.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Creation and basic authority. 701.2 Section 701.2 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Introduction § 701.2 Creation and basic authority. The Water Resources Council was established by...

18 CFR 401.26 - Inventory of other projects.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Inventory of other projects. 401.26 Section 401.26 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Water Resources Program § 401.26 Inventory of other...

18 CFR 701.202 - Procedure for requests for information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Procedure for requests for information. 701.202 Section 701.202 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES.... (a) A member of the public who requests records or materials from the Water Resources Council must...

18 CFR 701.208 - WRC petition for judicial extension of time.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true WRC petition for judicial extension of time. 701.208 Section 701.208 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Availability of Information § 701.208 WRC petition for judicial...

18 CFR 706.401 - Employees required to submit statements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Employees required to submit statements. 706.401 Section 706.401 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES... under Title III of the Water Resources Planning Act; (4) Special Government employees, as defined in...

18 CFR 401.25 - Alternatives for public projects.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Alternatives for public projects. 401.25 Section 401.25 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Water Resources Program § 401.25 Alternatives for public...

18 CFR 701.203 - Schedule of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Schedule of fees. 701.203 Section 701.203 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL... public and the cost to the Water Resources Council. (d) Fees shall be limited to recovery of only direct...

18 CFR 701.79 - Selection policy for professional personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Selection policy for professional personnel. 701.79 Section 701.79 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.79 Selection policy for professional personnel. In...

18 CFR 740.3 - State applications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true State applications. 740.3 Section 740.3 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER... for completing the application; (2) The criteria to be used by the Council in assessing need for water...

18 CFR 740.1 - Purpose and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Purpose and scope. 740.1 Section 740.1 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER MANAGEMENT... for the management of water and related land resources, this part establishes guidelines for financial...

18 CFR 706.103 - Remedial action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Remedial action. 706.103 Section 706.103 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT General Provisions § 706.103 Remedial action. (a) A violation of this part by an...

18 CFR 701.51 - The Council.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true The Council. 701.51 Section 701.51 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.51 The Council. Decisions of the Council are made as hereinafter described in...

18 CFR 740.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Definitions. 740.2 Section 740.2 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER MANAGEMENT PLANNING PROGRAM § 740.2 Definitions. Act means the Water Resources Planning Act (as amended), Pub. L. 89...

18 CFR 740.4 - State water management planning program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true State water management planning program. 740.4 Section 740.4 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL...) Describe water and related land resources problems, needs and opportunities, and the priorities proposed...

18 CFR 701.300 - Purpose and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Purpose and scope. 701.300 Section 701.300 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL... rules to inform the public about information maintained by the U.S. Water Resources Council relating to...

18 CFR 706.205 - Misuse of information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Misuse of information. 706.205 Section 706.205 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.205 Misuse of information. For the...

18 CFR 706.211 - General conduct prejudicial to the Government.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true General conduct prejudicial to the Government. 706.211 Section 706.211 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Employees § 706.211...

18 CFR 740.10 - Program review and assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Program review and assistance. 740.10 Section 740.10 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE... the request of the State, specific technical assistance in water resources management; (ii) Determine...

18 CFR 701.313 - Penalties.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Penalties. 701.313 Section 701.313 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.313 Penalties. Title 18 U.S.C. 1001, Crimes and Criminal Procedures, makes it a...

18 CFR 401.24 - Preparation and adoption.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Preparation and adoption. 401.24 Section 401.24 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Water Resources Program § 401.24 Preparation and adoption...

18 CFR 701.209 - River basin commissions and field committees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true River basin commissions and field committees. 701.209 Section 701.209 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER... field committees. (a) River basin commissions established pursuant to Title II of the Water Resources...

18 CFR 401.22 - Concept of the Program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Concept of the Program. 401.22 Section 401.22 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Water Resources Program § 401.22 Concept of the Program...

18 CFR 701.78 - Director-delegation of authorities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Director-delegation of authorities. 701.78 Section 701.78 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Headquarters Organization § 701.78 Director—delegation of authorities. (a) Under the authority of...

18 CFR 707.7 - Ensuring that environmental documents are actually considered in agency decisionmaking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Ensuring that... Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COMPLIANCE WITH THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT (NEPA) Water Resources Council Implementing Procedures § 707.7 Ensuring that environmental documents are...

18 CFR 401.115 - Discretionary disclosure by the Executive Director.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Discretionary disclosure by the Executive Director. 401.115 Section 401.115 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE... from disclosure pursuant to this part. The Executive Director shall exercise his discretion to disclose...

18 CFR 401.83 - Hearing Officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Hearing Officer. 401.83 Section 401.83 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE... persons. One of them shall be nominated by the water pollution control agency of the state in which the...

18 CFR 1301.11 - Purpose and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Purpose and scope. 1301.11 Section 1301.11 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY PROCEDURES... provide procedures by which an individual may exercise the rights granted by the Act to determine whether...

18 CFR 806.7 - Concurrent project review by member jurisdictions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Concurrent project review by member jurisdictions. 806.7 Section 806.7 Conservation of Power and Water Resources SUSQUEHANNA... will exercise their review and approval authority and evaluate many proposed projects in the basin. The...

18 CFR 1304.412 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Definitions. 1304.412 Section 1304.412 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY APPROVAL OF... surcharge at the dam. Surcharge is the ability to raise the water level behind the dam above the top-of...

7 CFR 1160.208 - Powers of the Board.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Powers of the Board. 1160.208 Section 1160.208 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing... of deposit of a bank that is a member of the Federal Reserve System, or in obligations fully...

A knowledge-driven probabilistic framework for the prediction of protein-protein interaction networks.

PubMed

Browne, Fiona; Wang, Haiying; Zheng, Huiru; Azuaje, Francisco

2010-03-01

This study applied a knowledge-driven data integration framework for the inference of protein-protein interactions (PPI). Evidence from diverse genomic features is integrated using a knowledge-driven Bayesian network (KD-BN). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves may not be the optimal assessment method to evaluate a classifier's performance in PPI prediction as the majority of the area under the curve (AUC) may not represent biologically meaningful results. It may be of benefit to interpret the AUC of a partial ROC curve whereby biologically interesting results are represented. Therefore, the novel application of the assessment method referred to as the partial ROC has been employed in this study to assess predictive performance of PPI predictions along with calculating the True positive/false positive rate and true positive/positive rate. By incorporating domain knowledge into the construction of the KD-BN, we demonstrate improvement in predictive performance compared with previous studies based upon the Naive Bayesian approach. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Logistic Mixed Models to Investigate Implicit and Explicit Belief Tracking.

PubMed

Lages, Martin; Scheel, Anne

2016-01-01

We investigated the proposition of a two-systems Theory of Mind in adults' belief tracking. A sample of N = 45 participants predicted the choice of one of two opponent players after observing several rounds in an animated card game. Three matches of this card game were played and initial gaze direction on target and subsequent choice predictions were recorded for each belief task and participant. We conducted logistic regressions with mixed effects on the binary data and developed Bayesian logistic mixed models to infer implicit and explicit mentalizing in true belief and false belief tasks. Although logistic regressions with mixed effects predicted the data well a Bayesian logistic mixed model with latent task- and subject-specific parameters gave a better account of the data. As expected explicit choice predictions suggested a clear understanding of true and false beliefs (TB/FB). Surprisingly, however, model parameters for initial gaze direction also indicated belief tracking. We discuss why task-specific parameters for initial gaze directions are different from choice predictions yet reflect second-order perspective taking.

32 CFR Appendix F to Part 623 - Power of Attorney (DA Form 4881-4-R)

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Power of Attorney (DA Form 4881-4-R) F Appendix F to Part 623 National Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY SUPPLIES AND EQUIPMENT LOAN OF ARMY MATERIEL Pt. 623, App. F Appendix F to Part 623—Power of Attorney (DA Form 4881-4-R...

Urinary levels of novel kidney biomarkers and risk of true worsening renal function and mortality in patients with acute heart failure.

PubMed

Sokolski, Mateusz; Zymliński, Robert; Biegus, Jan; Siwołowski, Paweł; Nawrocka-Millward, Sylwia; Todd, John; Yerramilli, Malli Rama; Estis, Joel; Jankowska, Ewa Anita; Banasiak, Waldemar; Ponikowski, Piotr

2017-06-01

Recent studies indicate the need to redefine worsening renal function (WRF) in acute heart failure (AHF), linking a rise in creatinine with clinical status to identify patients who develop 'true WRF'. We evaluated the usefulness of serial assessment of urinary levels of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL), kidney injury molecule-1 (uKIM-1), and cystatin C (uCysC) for prediction of 'true WRF'. In 132 patients with AHF, uNGAL, uKIM-1, and uCysC were measured using a highly sensitive immunoassay based on a single-molecule counting technology (Singulex, Alameda, CA, USA) at baseline, day 2, and day 3. Patients who developed WRF (a ≥0.3 mg/dL increase in serum creatinine or a >25% decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate from the baseline value) were differentiated into those 'true WRF' (presence of deterioration/no improvement in clinical status during hospitalization) vs. 'pseudo-WRF' (uneventful clinical course). 'True WRF' occurred in 13 (10%), 'pseudo-WRF' in 15 (11%), whereas the remaining 104 (79%) patients did not develop WRF. Patients with 'true WRF' were more often females, had higher levels of NT-proBNP, creatinine, and urea on admission, higher urine albumin to creatinine ratio at day 2, higher uNGAL at baseline, day 2, and day 3, and higher KIM-1 at day 2 (vs. pseudo-WRF vs. without WRF, all P < 0.05). Patients with pseudo-WRF did not differ from those without WRF. In the multivariable model, elevated uNGAL at all time points and uKIM-1 at day 2 remained independent predictors of 'true WRF'. Elevated levels of uNGAL and uKIM-1 may predict development of 'true WRF' in AHF. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2017 European Society of Cardiology.

Did Ptolemy make novel predictions? Launching Ptolemaic astronomy into the scientific realism debate.

PubMed

Carman, Christián; Díez, José

2015-08-01

The goal of this paper, both historical and philosophical, is to launch a new case into the scientific realism debate: geocentric astronomy. Scientific realism about unobservables claims that the non-observational content of our successful/justified empirical theories is true, or approximately true. The argument that is currently considered the best in favor of scientific realism is the No Miracles Argument: the predictive success of a theory that makes (novel) observational predictions while making use of non-observational content would be inexplicable unless such non-observational content approximately corresponds to the world "out there". Laudan's pessimistic meta-induction challenged this argument, and realists reacted by moving to a "selective" version of realism: the approximately true part of the theory is not its full non-observational content but only the part of it that is responsible for the novel, successful observational predictions. Selective scientific realism has been tested against some of the theories in Laudan's list, but the first member of this list, geocentric astronomy, has been traditionally ignored. Our goal here is to defend that Ptolemy's Geocentrism deserves attention and poses a prima facie strong case against selective realism, since it made several successful, novel predictions based on theoretical hypotheses that do not seem to be retained, not even approximately, by posterior theories. Here, though, we confine our work just to the detailed reconstruction of what we take to be the main novel, successful Ptolemaic predictions, leaving the full analysis and assessment of their significance for the realist thesis to future works. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Accuracy of ultrasound for the prediction of placenta accreta.

PubMed

Bowman, Zachary S; Eller, Alexandra G; Kennedy, Anne M; Richards, Douglas S; Winter, Thomas C; Woodward, Paula J; Silver, Robert M

2014-08-01

Ultrasound has been reported to be greater than 90% sensitive for the diagnosis of accreta. Prior studies may be subject to bias because of single expert observers, suspicion for accreta, and knowledge of risk factors. We aimed to assess the accuracy of ultrasound for the prediction of accreta. Patients with accreta at a single academic center were matched to patients with placenta previa, but no accreta, by year of delivery. Ultrasound studies with views of the placenta were collected, deidentified, blinded to clinical history, and placed in random sequence. Six investigators prospectively interpreted each study for the presence of accreta and findings reported to be associated with its diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, negative predictive value, and accuracy were calculated. Characteristics of accurate findings were compared using univariate and multivariate analyses. Six investigators examined 229 ultrasound studies from 55 patients with accreta and 56 controls for 1374 independent observations. 1205/1374 (87.7% overall, 90% controls, 84.9% cases) studies were given a diagnosis. There were 371 (27.0%) true positives; 81 (5.9%) false positives; 533 (38.8%) true negatives, 220 (16.0%) false negatives, and 169 (12.3%) with uncertain diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were 53.5%, 88.0%, 82.1%, 64.8%, and 64.8%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, true positives were more likely to have placental lacunae (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-1.6), loss of retroplacental clear space (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-4.9), or abnormalities on color Doppler (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.8-2.4). Ultrasound for the prediction of placenta accreta may not be as sensitive as previously described. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiCostanzo, D; Ayan, A; Woollard, J

Purpose: To predict potential failures of hardware within the Varian TrueBeam linear accelerator in order to proactively replace parts and decrease machine downtime. Methods: Machine downtime is a problem for all radiation oncology departments and vendors. Most often it is the result of unexpected equipment failure, and increased due to lack of in-house clinical engineering support. Preventative maintenance attempts to assuage downtime, but often is ineffective at preemptively preventing many failure modes such as MLC motor failures, the need to tighten a gantry chain, or the replacement of a jaw motor, among other things. To attempt to alleviate downtime, softwaremore » was developed in house that determines the maximum value of each axis enumerated in the Truebeam trajectory log files. After patient treatments, this data is stored in a SQL database. Microsoft Power BI is used to plot the average maximum error of each day of each machine as a function of time. The results are then correlated with actual faults that occurred at the machine with the help of Varian service engineers. Results: Over the course of six months, 76,312 trajectory logs have been written into the database and plotted in Power BI. Throughout the course of analysis MLC motors have been replaced on three machines due to the early warning of the trajectory log analysis. The service engineers have also been alerted to possible gantry issues on one occasion due to the aforementioned analysis. Conclusion: Analyzing the trajectory log data is a viable and effective early warning system for potential failures of the TrueBeam linear accelerator. With further analysis and tightening of the tolerance values used to determine a possible imminent failure, it should be possible to pinpoint future issues more thoroughly and for more axes of motion.« less

In Silico Dynamics: computer simulation in a Virtual Embryo (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract: Utilizing cell biological information to predict higher order biological processes is a significant challenge in predictive toxicology. This is especially true for highly dynamical systems such as the embryo where morphogenesis, growth and differentiation require preci...

Inertial measurements of free-living activities: assessing mobility to predict falls.

PubMed

Wang, Kejia; Lovell, Nigel H; Del Rosario, Michael B; Liu, Ying; Wang, Jingjing; Narayanan, Michael R; Brodie, Matthew A D; Delbaere, Kim; Menant, Jasmine; Lord, Stephen R; Redmond, Stephen J

2014-01-01

An exploratory analysis was conducted into how simple features, from acceleration at the lower back and ankle during simulated free-living walking, stair ascent and descent, correlate with age, the overall fall risk from a clinically validated Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA), and its sub-components. Inertial data were captured from 92 older adults aged 78-95 (42 female, mean age 84.1, standard deviation 3.9 years). The dominant frequency, peak width from Welch's power spectral density estimate, and signal variance along each axis, from each sensor location and for each activity were calculated. Several correlations were found between these features and the physiological risk factors. The strongest correlations were from the dominant frequency at the ankle along the mediolateral direction during stair ascent (Spearman's correlation coefficient p = - 0.45) with anterioposterior sway, and signal variance of the anterioposterior acceleration at the lower back during stair descent (p = - 0.45) with age. These findings should aid future attempts to classify activities and predict falls in older adults, based on true free-living data from a range of activities.

Investigating the running abilities of Tyrannosaurus rex using stress-constrained multibody dynamic analysis

PubMed Central

Pond, Stuart B.; Brassey, Charlotte A.; Manning, Philip L.; Bates, Karl T.

2017-01-01

The running ability of Tyrannosaurus rex has been intensively studied due to its relevance to interpretations of feeding behaviour and the biomechanics of scaling in giant predatory dinosaurs. Different studies using differing methodologies have produced a very wide range of top speed estimates and there is therefore a need to develop techniques that can improve these predictions. Here we present a new approach that combines two separate biomechanical techniques (multibody dynamic analysis and skeletal stress analysis) to demonstrate that true running gaits would probably lead to unacceptably high skeletal loads in T. rex. Combining these two approaches reduces the high-level of uncertainty in previous predictions associated with unknown soft tissue parameters in dinosaurs, and demonstrates that the relatively long limb segments of T. rex—long argued to indicate competent running ability—would actually have mechanically limited this species to walking gaits. Being limited to walking speeds contradicts arguments of high-speed pursuit predation for the largest bipedal dinosaurs like T. rex, and demonstrates the power of multiphysics approaches for locomotor reconstructions of extinct animals. PMID:28740745

Investigating the running abilities of Tyrannosaurus rex using stress-constrained multibody dynamic analysis.

PubMed

Sellers, William I; Pond, Stuart B; Brassey, Charlotte A; Manning, Philip L; Bates, Karl T

2017-01-01

The running ability of Tyrannosaurus rex has been intensively studied due to its relevance to interpretations of feeding behaviour and the biomechanics of scaling in giant predatory dinosaurs. Different studies using differing methodologies have produced a very wide range of top speed estimates and there is therefore a need to develop techniques that can improve these predictions. Here we present a new approach that combines two separate biomechanical techniques (multibody dynamic analysis and skeletal stress analysis) to demonstrate that true running gaits would probably lead to unacceptably high skeletal loads in T. rex . Combining these two approaches reduces the high-level of uncertainty in previous predictions associated with unknown soft tissue parameters in dinosaurs, and demonstrates that the relatively long limb segments of T. rex -long argued to indicate competent running ability-would actually have mechanically limited this species to walking gaits. Being limited to walking speeds contradicts arguments of high-speed pursuit predation for the largest bipedal dinosaurs like T. rex , and demonstrates the power of multiphysics approaches for locomotor reconstructions of extinct animals.

A summary of wind power prediction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuqi

2018-06-01

The deterministic prediction of wind power, the probability prediction and the prediction of wind power ramp events are introduced in this paper. Deterministic prediction includes the prediction of statistical learning based on histor ical data and the prediction of physical models based on NWP data. Due to the great impact of wind power ramp events on the power system, this paper also introduces the prediction of wind power ramp events. At last, the evaluation indicators of all kinds of prediction are given. The prediction of wind power can be a good solution to the adverse effects of wind power on the power system due to the abrupt, intermittent and undulation of wind power.

A Bayesian adaptive design for biomarker trials with linked treatments

PubMed Central

Wason, James M S; Abraham, Jean E; Baird, Richard D; Gournaris, Ioannis; Vallier, Anne-Laure; Brenton, James D; Earl, Helena M; Mander, Adrian P

2015-01-01

Background: Response to treatments is highly heterogeneous in cancer. Increased availability of biomarkers and targeted treatments has led to the need for trial designs that efficiently test new treatments in biomarker-stratified patient subgroups. Methods: We propose a novel Bayesian adaptive randomisation (BAR) design for use in multi-arm phase II trials where biomarkers exist that are potentially predictive of a linked treatment's effect. The design is motivated in part by two phase II trials that are currently in development. The design starts by randomising patients to the control treatment or to experimental treatments that the biomarker profile suggests should be active. At interim analyses, data from treated patients are used to update the allocation probabilities. If the linked treatments are effective, the allocation remains high; if ineffective, the allocation changes over the course of the trial to unlinked treatments that are more effective. Results: Our proposed design has high power to detect treatment effects if the pairings of treatment with biomarker are correct, but also performs well when alternative pairings are true. The design is consistently more powerful than parallel-groups stratified trials. Conclusions: This BAR design is a powerful approach to use when there are pairings of biomarkers with treatments available for testing simultaneously. PMID:26263479

High-power free-electron lasers-technology and future applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Socol, Yehoshua

2013-03-01

Free-electron laser (FEL) is an all-electric, high-power, high beam-quality source of coherent radiation, tunable - unlike other laser sources - at any wavelength within wide spectral region from hard X-rays to far-IR and beyond. After the initial push in the framework of the “Star Wars” program, the FEL technology benefited from decades of R&D and scientific applications. Currently, there are clear signs that the FEL technology reached maturity, enabling real-world applications. E.g., successful and unexpectedly smooth commissioning of the world-first X-ray FEL in 2010 increased in one blow by more than an order of magnitude (40×) wavelength region available by FEL technology and thus demonstrated that the theoretical predictions just keep true in real machines. Experience of ordering turn-key electron beamlines from commercial companies is a further demonstration of the FEL technology maturity. Moreover, successful commissioning of the world-first multi-turn energy-recovery linac demonstrated feasibility of reducing FEL size, cost and power consumption by probably an order of magnitude in respect to previous configurations, opening way to applications, previously considered as non-feasible. This review takes engineer-oriented approach to discuss the FEL technology issues, keeping in mind applications in the fields of military and aerospace, next generation semiconductor lithography, photo-chemistry and isotope separation.

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, G.P.; Troutman, B.M.

1990-01-01

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a "true" linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating "true" straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal-predicting the dependent variable-OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples. ?? 1990 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Gross and true ileal digestible amino acid contents of several animal body proteins and their hydrolysates.

PubMed

Cui, J; Chong, B; Rutherfurd, S M; Wilkinson, B; Singh, H; Moughan, P J

2013-07-01

Amino acid compositions of ovine muscle, ovine myofibrillar protein, ovine spleen, ovine liver, bovine blood plasma, bovine blood globulins and bovine serum albumin and the amino acid compositions and in vivo (laboratory rat) true ileal amino acid digestibilities of hydrolysates (sequential hydrolysis with Neutrase, Alcalase and Flavourzyme) of these protein sources were determined. True ileal amino acid digestibility differed (P<0.05) among the seven protein hydrolysates. The ovine myofibrillar protein and liver hydrolysates were the most digestible, with a mean true ileal digestibility across all amino acids of 99%. The least digestible protein hydrolysate was bovine serum albumin with a comparable mean true ileal digestibility of 93%. When the digestible amino acid contents were expressed as proportions relative to lysine, considerable differences, across the diverse protein sources, were found in the pattern of predicted absorbed amino acids. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A boundary-optimized rejection region test for the two-sample binomial problem.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Nason, Martha; Fay, Michael P; Follmann, Dean A

2018-03-30

Testing the equality of 2 proportions for a control group versus a treatment group is a well-researched statistical problem. In some settings, there may be strong historical data that allow one to reliably expect that the control proportion is one, or nearly so. While one-sample tests or comparisons to historical controls could be used, neither can rigorously control the type I error rate in the event the true control rate changes. In this work, we propose an unconditional exact test that exploits the historical information while controlling the type I error rate. We sequentially construct a rejection region by first maximizing the rejection region in the space where all controls have an event, subject to the constraint that our type I error rate does not exceed α for any true event rate; then with any remaining α we maximize the additional rejection region in the space where one control avoids the event, and so on. When the true control event rate is one, our test is the most powerful nonrandomized test for all points in the alternative space. When the true control event rate is nearly one, we demonstrate that our test has equal or higher mean power, averaging over the alternative space, than a variety of well-known tests. For the comparison of 4 controls and 4 treated subjects, our proposed test has higher power than all comparator tests. We demonstrate the properties of our proposed test by simulation and use our method to design a malaria vaccine trial. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Median Hetero-Associative Memories Applied to the Categorization of True-Color Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vázquez, Roberto A.; Sossa, Humberto

Median associative memories (MED-AMs) are a special type of associative memory based on the median operator. This type of associative model has been applied to the restoration of gray scale images and provides better performance than other models, such as morphological associative memories, when the patterns are altered with mixed noise. Despite of his power, MED-AMs have not been applied in problems involving true-color patterns. In this paper we describe how a median hetero-associative memory (MED-HAM) could be applied in problems that involve true-color patterns. A complete study of the behavior of this associative model in the restoration of true-color images is performed using a benchmark of 14400 images altered by different type of noises. Furthermore, we describe how this model can be applied to an image categorization problem.

JPRS Report, Proliferation Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-10-28

the Kozloduy Nuclear Power mentary Union for Social Democracy for the town of Plant . Igor Kareyev, the embassy’s economic counselor, Svishtov, comments...are working at the nuclear the Belene Nuclear Power Plant is halted." It is evident that plant . unless this issue is finally resolved, no one will make...long-term investments in the region of the projected nuclear Russian organizations are doing everything possible to power plant . It is true that

18 CFR 420.41 - Schedule of water charges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... schedule of water charges. Until changed, the charge for water shall be as follows: (a) $80 per million... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Schedule of water charges. 420.41 Section 420.41 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION...

18 CFR 1317.425 - Counseling and use of appraisal and counseling materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Counseling and use of appraisal and counseling materials. 1317.425 Section 1317.425 Conservation of Power and Water Resources... Activities Prohibited § 1317.425 Counseling and use of appraisal and counseling materials. (a) Counseling. A...

18 CFR 385.2005 - Subscription and verification (Rule 2005).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Subscription and verification (Rule 2005). 385.2005 Section 385.2005 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY...; (ii) The contents are true as stated, to the best knowledge and belief of the signer; and (iii) The...

18 CFR 385.403 - Methods of discovery; general provisions (Rule 403).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Methods of discovery; general provisions (Rule 403). 385.403 Section 385.403 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL... the response is true and accurate to the best of that person's knowledge, information, and belief...

18 CFR 154.4 - Electronic filing of tariffs and related materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Electronic filing of tariffs and related materials. 154.4 Section 154.4 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL... the contents are true to the best knowledge and belief of the signer, and that the signer possesses...

25 CFR 273.16 - Powers and duties of Indian Education Committee.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Powers and duties of Indian Education Committee. 273.16 Section 273.16 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR INDIAN SELF-DETERMINATION AND EDUCATION ASSISTANCE ACT PROGRAM EDUCATION CONTRACTS UNDER JOHNSON-O'MALLEY ACT Application Process § 273.16...

What next for Fukushima?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drinkwater, Bruce; Malkin, Rob

2018-01-01

Nearly seven years after a powerful tsunami caused catastrophic damage to Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power plant, the clean-up and recovery is still ongoing. Bruce Drinkwater and Rob Malkin recently visited the disaster site and the undamaged Tsuruga plant to see if they can pinpoint the true extent of the damage in the dangerously radioactive reactors

18 CFR 806.22 - Standards for consumptive uses of water.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Standards for consumptive uses of water. 806.22 Section 806.22 Conservation of Power and Water Resources SUSQUEHANNA RIVER... combination of the following: (1) During low flow periods as may be designated by the Commission for...

18 CFR 1304.208 - Shoreline stabilization on TVA-owned residential access shoreland.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Shoreline stabilization on TVA-owned residential access shoreland. 1304.208 Section 1304.208 Conservation of Power and Water... planting of vegetation. (2) Tightly bound bundles of coconut fiber, logs, or other natural materials may be...

18 CFR 401.74 - Form and contents of report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Form and contents of report. 401.74 Section 401.74 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION..., solid, radioactive, or other substance composing the discharge in whole or in part; (3) The thermal...

Exploring the Power of Solo, Silence, and Solitude

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knapp, Clifford E., Ed.; Smith, Thomas E., Ed.

2005-01-01

What do solitude experiences offer in this increasingly high-speed, technically dependent world? As this book inspiringly reveals, solo quests can provide powerful reconnection with the natural world, the true self, and the great mystery beyond. As Parker Palmer writes in "To Know as We Are Known," "Solitude calls us to confront…

18 CFR Appendix A to Part 1302 - Federal Financial Assistance to Which These Regulations Apply

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Federal Financial Assistance to Which These Regulations Apply A Appendix A to Part 1302 Conservation of Power and Water... a cooperative program utilizing test-demonstration farms to test experimental fertilizers developed...

18 CFR 701.201 - Availability of records and informational materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Availability of records and informational materials. 701.201 Section 701.201 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER... Water Resources Council in accordance with the procedure provided in § 701.202. (b) The provisions of 5...

18 CFR 701.3 - Purpose of the Water Resources Council.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Purpose of the Water Resources Council. 701.3 Section 701.3 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Introduction § 701.3 Purpose of the Water Resources Council. It is the purpose of the...

18 CFR 701.207 - Extension of time limits for WRC initial and final determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Extension of time limits for WRC initial and final determinations. 701.207 Section 701.207 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Availability of Information § 701.207 Extension of...

18 CFR 701.307 - Request for correction or amendment to record.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Request for correction or amendment to record. 701.307 Section 701.307 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.307 Request for correction or amendment...

18 CFR 701.204 - Time limits for WRC initial determinations regarding requests for information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Time limits for WRC initial determinations regarding requests for information. 701.204 Section 701.204 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Availability of Information § 701.204...

18 CFR 740.5 - Review and approval of State applications and programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Review and approval of State applications and programs. 740.5 Section 740.5 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL STATE WATER MANAGEMENT PLANNING PROGRAM § 740.5 Review and approval of State applications...

18 CFR 701.302 - Procedures for notification of existence of records pertaining to individuals.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Procedures for notification of existence of records pertaining to individuals. 701.302 Section 701.302 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.302...

Linguists: The Hidden Strength of U.S. Intelligence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dow, Kathleen A.

2006-01-01

This article seeks to argue that linguists--not technology--have been the true power behind the successes of the U.S. intelligence community. However, this power has not come to them without difficulty. The author explores four issues in relation to this argument: (a) previous U.S. foreign language policy proposals; (b) the recruitment of…

18 CFR 1316.10 - Officials not to benefit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Officials not to benefit. 1316.10 Section 1316.10 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY GENERAL... contract, and TVA shall have the right to exercise all remedies provided in this contract or at law. (End...

Indiana 50 M Wind Resource

Science.gov Websites

Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: vector digital data Other_Citation_Details: The wind power resource estimates were produced by AWS TrueWind using their MesoMap system and historical weather data under contract to Wind Powering America/NREL. This map has been validated with available surface data by NREL and wind energy

Ohio 50 m Wind Resource

Science.gov Websites

Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: vector digital data Other_Citation_Details: The wind power resource estimates were produced by AWS TrueWind using their MesoMap system and historical weather data under contract to Wind Powering America/NREL. This map has been validated with available surface data by NREL and wind energy

michigan_50mwind

Science.gov Websites

Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: vector digital data Other_Citation_Details: The wind power resource estimates were produced by AWS TrueWind using their MesoMap system and historical weather data under contract to Wind Powering America/NREL. This map has been validated with available surface data by NREL and wind energy

Missouri 50 m Wind Resource

Science.gov Websites

Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: vector digital data Other_Citation_Details: The wind power resource estimates were produced by AWS TrueWind using their MesoMap system and historical weather data under contract to Wind Powering America/NREL. This map has been validated with available surface data by NREL and wind energy

nebraska_50mwind

Science.gov Websites

Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: vector digital data Other_Citation_Details: The wind power resource estimates were produced by TrueWind Solutions using their MesoMap system and historical weather data under contract to Wind Powering America/NREL. This map has been validated with available surface data by NREL and wind energy

18 CFR 1309.18 - Under what circumstances must recipients take remedial or affirmative action?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Under what circumstances must recipients take remedial or affirmative action? 1309.18 Section 1309.18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NONDISCRIMINATION WITH RESPECT TO AGE § 1309.18 Under what...

18 CFR 401.76 - Failure to furnish report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Failure to furnish report. 401.76 Section 401.76 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION... Director in Water Qualtity Cases § 401.76 Failure to furnish report. The Executive Director may, upon five...

Meta-analysis of gene expression profiles associated with histological classification and survival in 829 ovarian cancer samples.

PubMed

Fekete, Tibor; Rásó, Erzsébet; Pete, Imre; Tegze, Bálint; Liko, István; Munkácsy, Gyöngyi; Sipos, Norbert; Rigó, János; Györffy, Balázs

2012-07-01

Transcriptomic analysis of global gene expression in ovarian carcinoma can identify dysregulated genes capable to serve as molecular markers for histology subtypes and survival. The aim of our study was to validate previous candidate signatures in an independent setting and to identify single genes capable to serve as biomarkers for ovarian cancer progression. As several datasets are available in the GEO today, we were able to perform a true meta-analysis. First, 829 samples (11 datasets) were downloaded, and the predictive power of 16 previously published gene sets was assessed. Of these, eight were capable to discriminate histology subtypes, and none was capable to predict survival. To overcome the differences in previous studies, we used the 829 samples to identify new predictors. Then, we collected 64 ovarian cancer samples (median relapse-free survival 24.5 months) and performed TaqMan Real Time Polimerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) analysis for the best 40 genes associated with histology subtypes and survival. Over 90% of subtype-associated genes were confirmed. Overall survival was effectively predicted by hormone receptors (PGR and ESR2) and by TSPAN8. Relapse-free survival was predicted by MAPT and SNCG. In summary, we successfully validated several gene sets in a meta-analysis in large datasets of ovarian samples. Additionally, several individual genes identified were validated in a clinical cohort. Copyright © 2011 UICC.

Model of Silicon Refining During Tapping: Removal of Ca, Al, and Other Selected Element Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, Jan Erik; Kero, Ida T.; Engh, Thorvald A.; Tranell, Gabriella

2017-04-01

A mathematical model for industrial refining of silicon alloys has been developed for the so-called oxidative ladle refining process. It is a lumped (zero-dimensional) model, based on the mass balances of metal, slag, and gas in the ladle, developed to operate with relatively short computational times for the sake of industrial relevance. The model accounts for a semi-continuous process which includes both the tapping and post-tapping refining stages. It predicts the concentrations of Ca, Al, and trace elements, most notably the alkaline metals, alkaline earth metal, and rare earth metals. The predictive power of the model depends on the quality of the model coefficients, the kinetic coefficient, τ, and the equilibrium partition coefficient, L for a given element. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the model results are most sensitive to L. The model has been compared to industrial measurement data and found to be able to qualitatively, and to some extent quantitatively, predict the data. The model is very well suited for alkaline and alkaline earth metals which respond relatively fast to the refining process. The model is less well suited for elements such as the lanthanides and Al, which are refined more slowly. A major challenge for the prediction of the behavior of the rare earth metals is that reliable thermodynamic data for true equilibrium conditions relevant to the industrial process is not typically available in literature.

Predicting perturbation patterns from the topology of biological networks.

PubMed

Santolini, Marc; Barabási, Albert-László

2018-06-20

High-throughput technologies, offering an unprecedented wealth of quantitative data underlying the makeup of living systems, are changing biology. Notably, the systematic mapping of the relationships between biochemical entities has fueled the rapid development of network biology, offering a suitable framework to describe disease phenotypes and predict potential drug targets. However, our ability to develop accurate dynamical models remains limited, due in part to the limited knowledge of the kinetic parameters underlying these interactions. Here, we explore the degree to which we can make reasonably accurate predictions in the absence of the kinetic parameters. We find that simple dynamically agnostic models are sufficient to recover the strength and sign of the biochemical perturbation patterns observed in 87 biological models for which the underlying kinetics are known. Surprisingly, a simple distance-based model achieves 65% accuracy. We show that this predictive power is robust to topological and kinetic parameter perturbations, and we identify key network properties that can increase up to 80% the recovery rate of the true perturbation patterns. We validate our approach using experimental data on the chemotactic pathway in bacteria, finding that a network model of perturbation spreading predicts with ∼80% accuracy the directionality of gene expression and phenotype changes in knock-out and overproduction experiments. These findings show that the steady advances in mapping out the topology of biochemical interaction networks opens avenues for accurate perturbation spread modeling, with direct implications for medicine and drug development.

Dinucleotide Composition in Animal RNA Viruses Is Shaped More by Virus Family than by Host Species

PubMed Central

Di Giallonardo, Francesca; Schlub, Timothy E.; Shi, Mang

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Viruses use the cellular machinery of their hosts for replication. It has therefore been proposed that the nucleotide and dinucleotide compositions of viruses should match those of their host species. If this is upheld, it may then be possible to use dinucleotide composition to predict the true host species of viruses sampled in metagenomic surveys. However, it is also clear that different taxonomic groups of viruses tend to have distinctive patterns of dinucleotide composition that may be independent of host species. To determine the relative strength of the effect of host versus virus family in shaping dinucleotide composition, we performed a comparative analysis of 20 RNA virus families from 15 host groupings, spanning two animal phyla and more than 900 virus species. In particular, we determined the odds ratios for the 16 possible dinucleotides and performed a discriminant analysis to evaluate the capability of virus dinucleotide composition to predict the correct virus family or host taxon from which it was isolated. Notably, while 81% of the data analyzed here were predicted to the correct virus family, only 62% of these data were predicted to their correct subphylum/class host and a mere 32% to their correct mammalian order. Similarly, dinucleotide composition has a weak predictive power for different hosts within individual virus families. We therefore conclude that dinucleotide composition is generally uniform within a virus family but less well reflects that of its host species. This has obvious implications for attempts to accurately predict host species from virus genome sequences alone. IMPORTANCE Determining the processes that shape virus genomes is central to understanding virus evolution and emergence. One question of particular importance is why nucleotide and dinucleotide frequencies differ so markedly between viruses. In particular, it is currently unclear whether host species or virus family has the biggest impact on dinucleotide frequencies and whether dinucleotide composition can be used to accurately predict host species. Using a comparative analysis, we show that dinucleotide composition has a strong phylogenetic association across different RNA virus families, such that dinucleotide composition can predict the family from which a virus sequence has been isolated. Conversely, dinucleotide composition has a poorer predictive power for the different host species within a virus family and across different virus families, indicating that the host has a relatively small impact on the dinucleotide composition of a virus genome. PMID:28148785

Direct power comparisons between simple LOD scores and NPL scores for linkage analysis in complex diseases.

PubMed

Abreu, P C; Greenberg, D A; Hodge, S E

1999-09-01

Several methods have been proposed for linkage analysis of complex traits with unknown mode of inheritance. These methods include the LOD score maximized over disease models (MMLS) and the "nonparametric" linkage (NPL) statistic. In previous work, we evaluated the increase of type I error when maximizing over two or more genetic models, and we compared the power of MMLS to detect linkage, in a number of complex modes of inheritance, with analysis assuming the true model. In the present study, we compare MMLS and NPL directly. We simulated 100 data sets with 20 families each, using 26 generating models: (1) 4 intermediate models (penetrance of heterozygote between that of the two homozygotes); (2) 6 two-locus additive models; and (3) 16 two-locus heterogeneity models (admixture alpha = 1.0,.7,.5, and.3; alpha = 1.0 replicates simple Mendelian models). For LOD scores, we assumed dominant and recessive inheritance with 50% penetrance. We took the higher of the two maximum LOD scores and subtracted 0.3 to correct for multiple tests (MMLS-C). We compared expected maximum LOD scores and power, using MMLS-C and NPL as well as the true model. Since NPL uses only the affected family members, we also performed an affecteds-only analysis using MMLS-C. The MMLS-C was both uniformly more powerful than NPL for most cases we examined, except when linkage information was low, and close to the results for the true model under locus heterogeneity. We still found better power for the MMLS-C compared with NPL in affecteds-only analysis. The results show that use of two simple modes of inheritance at a fixed penetrance can have more power than NPL when the trait mode of inheritance is complex and when there is heterogeneity in the data set.

Validation of Tendril TrueHome Using Software-to-Software Comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maguire, Jeffrey B; Horowitz, Scott G; Moore, Nathan

This study performed comparative evaluation of EnergyPlus version 8.6 and Tendril TrueHome, two physics-based home energy simulation models, to identify differences in energy consumption predictions between the two programs and resolve discrepancies between them. EnergyPlus is considered a benchmark, best-in-class software tool for building energy simulation. This exercise sought to improve both software tools through additional evaluation/scrutiny.

On the Use of Topside RO-Derived Electron Density for Model Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaikh, M. M.; Nava, B.; Haralambous, H.

2018-05-01

In this work, the standard Abel inversion has been exploited as a powerful observation tool, which may be helpful to model the topside of the ionosphere and therefore to validate ionospheric models. A thorough investigation on the behavior of radio occultation (RO)-derived topside electron density (Ne(h))-profiles has therefore been performed with the main purpose to understand whether it is possible to predict the accuracy of a single RO-retrieved topside by comparing the peak density and height of the retrieved profile to the true values. As a first step, a simulation study based on the use of the NeQuick2 model has been performed to show that when the RO-derived electron density peak and height match the true peak values, the full topside Ne(h)-profile may be considered accurate. In order to validate this hypothesis with experimental data, electron density profiles obtained from four different incoherent scatter radars have therefore been considered together with co-located RO-derived Ne(h)-profiles. The evidence presented in this paper show that in all cases examined, if the incoherent scatter radar and the corresponding co-located RO profile have matching peak parameter values, their topsides are in very good agreement. The simulation results presented in this work also highlighted the importance of considering the occultation plane azimuth while inverting RO data to obtain Ne(h)-profile. In particular, they have indicated that there is a preferred range of azimuths of the occultation plane (80°-100°) for which the difference between the "true" and the RO-retrieved Ne(h)-profile in the topside is generally minimal.

Algorithms and the Future of Music Education: A Response to Shuler

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thibeault, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

This article is a response to Shuler's 2001 article predicting the future of music education. The respondent assesses Shuler's predictions, finding that many have come true but critiquing Shuler's overall positive assessment. The respondent then goes on to make one prediction about the future of music education: that algorithms will…

Relationships of Measurement Error and Prediction Error in Observed-Score Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moses, Tim

2012-01-01

The focus of this paper is assessing the impact of measurement errors on the prediction error of an observed-score regression. Measures are presented and described for decomposing the linear regression's prediction error variance into parts attributable to the true score variance and the error variances of the dependent variable and the predictor…

Protein Kinase Classification with 2866 Hidden Markov Models and One Support Vector Machine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weber, Ryan; New, Michael H.; Fonda, Mark (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The main application considered in this paper is predicting true kinases from randomly permuted kinases that share the same length and amino acid distributions as the true kinases. Numerous methods already exist for this classification task, such as HMMs, motif-matchers, and sequence comparison algorithms. We build on some of these efforts by creating a vector from the output of thousands of structurally based HMMs, created offline with Pfam-A seed alignments using SAM-T99, which then must be combined into an overall classification for the protein. Then we use a Support Vector Machine for classifying this large ensemble Pfam-Vector, with a polynomial and chisquared kernel. In particular, the chi-squared kernel SVM performs better than the HMMs and better than the BLAST pairwise comparisons, when predicting true from false kinases in some respects, but no one algorithm is best for all purposes or in all instances so we consider the particular strengths and weaknesses of each.

Biological false-positive venereal disease research laboratory test in cerebrospinal fluid in the diagnosis of neurosyphilis - a case-control study.

PubMed

Zheng, S; Lin, R J; Chan, Y H; Ngan, C C L

2018-03-01

There is no clear consensus on the diagnosis of neurosyphilis. The Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) test from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) has traditionally been considered the gold standard for diagnosing neurosyphilis but is widely known to be insensitive. In this study, we compared the clinical and laboratory characteristics of true-positive VDRL-CSF cases with biological false-positive VDRL-CSF cases. We retrospectively identified cases of true and false-positive VDRL-CSF across a 3-year period received by the Immunology and Serology Laboratory, Singapore General Hospital. A biological false-positive VDRL-CSF is defined as a reactive VDRL-CSF with a non-reactive Treponema pallidum particle agglutination (TPPA)-CSF and/or negative Line Immuno Assay (LIA)-CSF IgG. A true-positive VDRL-CSF is a reactive VDRL-CSF with a concordant reactive TPPA-CSF and/or positive LIA-CSF IgG. During the study period, a total of 1254 specimens underwent VDRL-CSF examination. Amongst these, 60 specimens from 53 patients tested positive for VDRL-CSF. Of the 53 patients, 42 (79.2%) were true-positive cases and 11 (20.8%) were false-positive cases. In our setting, a positive non-treponemal serology has 97.6% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 100% positive predictive value and 91.7% negative predictive value for a true-positive VDRL-CSF based on our laboratory definition. HIV seropositivity was an independent predictor of a true-positive VDRL-CSF. Biological false-positive VDRL-CSF is common in a setting where patients are tested without first establishing a serological diagnosis of syphilis. Serological testing should be performed prior to CSF evaluation for neurosyphilis. © 2017 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

True negative predictive value of endobronchial ultrasound in lung cancer: are we being conservative enough?

PubMed

Whitson, Bryan A; Groth, Shawn S; Odell, David D; Briones, Eleazar P; Maddaus, Michael A; D'Cunha, Jonathan; Andrade, Rafael S

2013-05-01

Mediastinal staging in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with endobronchial ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (EBUS-FNA) requires a high negative predictive value (NPV) (ie, low false negative rate). We provide a conservative calculation of NPV that calls for caution in the interpretation of EBUS results. We retrospectively analyzed our prospectively gathered database (January 2007 to November 2011) to include NSCLC patients who underwent EBUS-FNA for mediastinal staging. We excluded patients with metastatic NSCLC and other malignancies. We assessed FNAs with rapid on-site evaluation (ROSE). The calculation of NPV is NPV = true negatives/true negatives + false negatives. However, this definition ignores nondiagnostic samples. Nondiagnostic samples should be added to the NPV denominator because decisions based on nondiagnostic samples could be flawed. We conservatively calculated NPV for EBUS-FNA as NPV = true negatives/true negatives + false negatives + nondiagnostic. We defined false negatives as negative FNAs but NSCLC-positive surgical biopsy of the same site. Nondiagnostic FNAs were nonrepresentative of lymphoid tissue. We compared diagnostic performance with the inclusion and exclusion of nondiagnostic procedures. We studied 120 patients with NSCLC who underwent EBUS-FNA; 5 patients had false negative findings and 10 additional patients had nondiagnostic results. The NPV with and without inclusion of nondiagnostic samples was 65.9% and 85.3%, respectively. The inclusion of nondiagnostic specimens into the conservative, worst-case-scenario calculation of NPV for EBUS-FNA in NSCLC lowers the NPV from 85.3% to 65.9%. The true NPV is likely higher than 65.9% as few nondiagnostic specimens are false negatives. Caution is imperative for the safe application of EBUS-FNA in NSCLC staging. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting protein β-sheet contacts using a maximum entropy-based correlated mutation measure.

PubMed

Burkoff, Nikolas S; Várnai, Csilla; Wild, David L

2013-03-01

The problem of ab initio protein folding is one of the most difficult in modern computational biology. The prediction of residue contacts within a protein provides a more tractable immediate step. Recently introduced maximum entropy-based correlated mutation measures (CMMs), such as direct information, have been successful in predicting residue contacts. However, most correlated mutation studies focus on proteins that have large good-quality multiple sequence alignments (MSA) because the power of correlated mutation analysis falls as the size of the MSA decreases. However, even with small autogenerated MSAs, maximum entropy-based CMMs contain information. To make use of this information, in this article, we focus not on general residue contacts but contacts between residues in β-sheets. The strong constraints and prior knowledge associated with β-contacts are ideally suited for prediction using a method that incorporates an often noisy CMM. Using contrastive divergence, a statistical machine learning technique, we have calculated a maximum entropy-based CMM. We have integrated this measure with a new probabilistic model for β-contact prediction, which is used to predict both residue- and strand-level contacts. Using our model on a standard non-redundant dataset, we significantly outperform a 2D recurrent neural network architecture, achieving a 5% improvement in true positives at the 5% false-positive rate at the residue level. At the strand level, our approach is competitive with the state-of-the-art single methods achieving precision of 61.0% and recall of 55.4%, while not requiring residue solvent accessibility as an input. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/systemsbiology/research/software/

Time-integrated activity coefficient estimation for radionuclide therapy using PET and a pharmacokinetic model: A simulation study on the effect of sampling schedule and noise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hardiansyah, Deni

2016-09-15

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of PET-based treatment planning for predicting the time-integrated activity coefficients (TIACs). Methods: The parameters of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model were fitted to the biokinetic data of 15 patients to derive assumed true parameters and were used to construct true mathematical patient phantoms (MPPs). Biokinetics of 150 MBq {sup 68}Ga-DOTATATE-PET was simulated with different noise levels [fractional standard deviation (FSD) 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01%], and seven combinations of measurements at 30 min, 1 h, and 4 h p.i. PBPK model parameters were fitted to the simulated noisymore » PET data using population-based Bayesian parameters to construct predicted MPPs. Therapy simulations were performed as 30 min infusion of {sup 90}Y-DOTATATE of 3.3 GBq in both true and predicted MPPs. Prediction accuracy was then calculated as relative variability v{sub organ} between TIACs from both MPPs. Results: Large variability values of one time-point protocols [e.g., FSD = 1%, 240 min p.i., v{sub kidneys} = (9 ± 6)%, and v{sub tumor} = (27 ± 26)%] show inaccurate prediction. Accurate TIAC prediction of the kidneys was obtained for the case of two measurements (1 and 4 h p.i.), e.g., FSD = 1%, v{sub kidneys} = (7 ± 3)%, and v{sub tumor} = (22 ± 10)%, or three measurements, e.g., FSD = 1%, v{sub kidneys} = (7 ± 3)%, and v{sub tumor} = (22 ± 9)%. Conclusions: {sup 68}Ga-DOTATATE-PET measurements could possibly be used to predict the TIACs of {sup 90}Y-DOTATATE when using a PBPK model and population-based Bayesian parameters. The two time-point measurement at 1 and 4 h p.i. with a noise up to FSD = 1% allows an accurate prediction of the TIACs in kidneys.« less

A Spatial Risk Analysis of Oil Refineries within the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

regulator and consumer. This is especially true within the energy sector which is composed of electrical power, oil , and gas infrastructure [10...Naphtali, "Analysis of Electrical Power and Oil and Gas Pipeline Failures," in International Federation for Information Processing, E. Goetz and S...61-67, September 1999. [5] J. Simonoff, C. Restrepo, R. Zimmerman, and Z. Naphtali, "Analysis of Electrical Power and Oil and Gas Pipeline Failures

Prediction and Prescription in Systems Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-30

are so fascinated by prediction of the future -- whether achieved through horoscopes or otherwise. The future is our future, or at least the future...entirely true , has enormous import for public policy, and could have been inferred from textbook treatments of linear dynamic systems without any

18 CFR 1301.2 - Public reading rooms.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Public reading rooms. 1301.2 Section 1301.2 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY PROCEDURES Freedom of Information Act § 1301.2 Public reading rooms. TVA maintains a public electronic reading room through its Web site at http://www.tva.gov....

2007 Mississippi Curriculum Framework: Secondary Agriculture Power and Machinery. (Program CIP: 01.0204 - Agricultural Power Machinery Operation)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, Lee; James, Terry; Washington, Lee; Taylor, John Grady; Rushing, Jimmy

2007-01-01

Secondary vocational-technical education programs in Mississippi are faced with many challenges resulting from sweeping educational reforms at the national and state levels. Schools and teachers are increasingly being held accountable for providing true learning activities to every student in the classroom. This accountability is measured through…

18 CFR 341.1 - Electronic filing of tariffs and related materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Electronic filing of... contents are true to the best knowledge and belief of the signer, and that the signer possesses full power..., where applicable, with the requirements in § 385.2005 of this chapter with respect to sworn declarations...

18 CFR 341.1 - Electronic filing of tariffs and related materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Electronic filing of... contents are true to the best knowledge and belief of the signer, and that the signer possesses full power..., where applicable, with the requirements in § 385.2005 of this chapter with respect to sworn declarations...

18 CFR 341.1 - Electronic filing of tariffs and related materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Electronic filing of... contents are true to the best knowledge and belief of the signer, and that the signer possesses full power..., where applicable, with the requirements in § 385.2005 of this chapter with respect to sworn declarations...

18 CFR 341.1 - Electronic filing of tariffs and related materials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Electronic filing of... contents are true to the best knowledge and belief of the signer, and that the signer possesses full power..., where applicable, with the requirements in § 385.2005 of this chapter with respect to sworn declarations...

18 CFR 1311.7 - How does TVA communicate with state, regional, and local officials concerning TVA's programs and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true How does TVA communicate....7 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVIEW OF... official state process, as early in a program planning cycle as is reasonably feasible to explain specific...

18 CFR 1316.4 - Buy American Act supply contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Buy American Act supply contracts. 1316.4 Section 1316.4 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY... American Act Supply Contracts (a) In TVA's acquisition of end products, the Buy American Act (41 U.S.C. 10a...

18 CFR 701.308 - Council review of request for correction or amendment of record.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Council review of request for correction or amendment of record. 701.308 Section 701.308 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.308 Council review of...

18 CFR 701.305 - Procedures for requests for access to or disclosure of records pertaining to individuals.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Procedures for requests for access to or disclosure of records pertaining to individuals. 701.305 Section 701.305 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701...

18 CFR 701.206 - Time limit for WRC final determinations regarding requests for information appealed by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Time limit for WRC final determinations regarding requests for information appealed by the requester from an initial adverse determination. 701.206 Section 701.206 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL...

18 CFR 701.205 - Time limit for requester to appeal an initial adverse determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Time limit for requester to appeal an initial adverse determination. 701.205 Section 701.205 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Availability of Information § 701.205 Time limit for...

18 CFR 707.6 - Early involvement in private, State, local, and other non-Federal activities requiring Federal...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Early involvement in... Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COMPLIANCE WITH THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT (NEPA) Water Resources Council Implementing Procedures § 707.6 Early involvement in private...

18 CFR 1301.18 - TVA review of request for correction or amendment of record.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true TVA review of request for correction or amendment of record. 1301.18 Section 1301.18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY PROCEDURES Privacy Act § 1301.18 TVA review of request for correction...

Logistic Mixed Models to Investigate Implicit and Explicit Belief Tracking

PubMed Central

Lages, Martin; Scheel, Anne

2016-01-01

We investigated the proposition of a two-systems Theory of Mind in adults’ belief tracking. A sample of N = 45 participants predicted the choice of one of two opponent players after observing several rounds in an animated card game. Three matches of this card game were played and initial gaze direction on target and subsequent choice predictions were recorded for each belief task and participant. We conducted logistic regressions with mixed effects on the binary data and developed Bayesian logistic mixed models to infer implicit and explicit mentalizing in true belief and false belief tasks. Although logistic regressions with mixed effects predicted the data well a Bayesian logistic mixed model with latent task- and subject-specific parameters gave a better account of the data. As expected explicit choice predictions suggested a clear understanding of true and false beliefs (TB/FB). Surprisingly, however, model parameters for initial gaze direction also indicated belief tracking. We discuss why task-specific parameters for initial gaze directions are different from choice predictions yet reflect second-order perspective taking. PMID:27853440

The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

2018-04-01

When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

A material-sparing method for simultaneous determination of true density and powder compaction properties--aspartame as an example.

PubMed

Sun, Changquan Calvin

2006-12-01

True density results for a batch of commercial aspartame are highly variable when helium pycnometry is used. Alternatively, the true density of the problematic aspartame lot was obtained by fitting tablet density versus pressure data. The fitted true density was in excellent agreement with that predicted from single crystal structure. Tablet porosity was calculated from the true density and tablet apparent density. After making the necessary measurements for calculating tablet apparent density, the breaking force of each intact tablet was measured and tensile strength was calculated. With the knowledge of compaction pressure, tablet porosity and tensile strength, powder compaction properties were characterized using tabletability (tensile strength versus pressure), compactibility (tensile strength versus porosity), compressibility (porosity versus pressure) and Heckel analysis. Thus, a wealth of additional information on the compaction properties of the powder was obtained through little added work. A total of approximately 4 g of powder was used in this study. Depending on the size of tablet tooling, tablet thickness and true density, 2-10 g of powder would be sufficient for characterizing most pharmaceutical powders.

SU-F-BRB-16: A Spreadsheet Based Automatic Trajectory GEnerator (SAGE): An Open Source Tool for Automatic Creation of TrueBeam Developer Mode Robotic Trajectories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Etmektzoglou, A; Mishra, P; Svatos, M

Purpose: To automate creation and delivery of robotic linac trajectories with TrueBeam Developer Mode, an open source spreadsheet-based trajectory generation tool has been developed, tested and made freely available. The computing power inherent in a spreadsheet environment plus additional functions programmed into the tool insulate users from the underlying schema tedium and allow easy calculation, parameterization, graphical visualization, validation and finally automatic generation of Developer Mode XML scripts which are directly loadable on a TrueBeam linac. Methods: The robotic control system platform that allows total coordination of potentially all linac moving axes with beam (continuous, step-and-shoot, or combination thereof) becomesmore » available in TrueBeam Developer Mode. Many complex trajectories are either geometric or can be described in analytical form, making the computational power, graphing and programmability available in a spreadsheet environment an easy and ideal vehicle for automatic trajectory generation. The spreadsheet environment allows also for parameterization of trajectories thus enabling the creation of entire families of trajectories using only a few variables. Standard spreadsheet functionality has been extended for powerful movie-like dynamic graphic visualization of the gantry, table, MLC, room, lasers, 3D observer placement and beam centerline all as a function of MU or time, for analysis of the motions before requiring actual linac time. Results: We used the tool to generate and deliver extended SAD “virtual isocenter” trajectories of various shapes such as parameterized circles and ellipses. We also demonstrated use of the tool in generating linac couch motions that simulate respiratory motion using analytical parameterized functions. Conclusion: The SAGE tool is a valuable resource to experiment with families of complex geometric trajectories for a TrueBeam Linac. It makes Developer Mode more accessible as a vehicle to quickly translate research ideas into machine readable scripts without programming knowledge. As an open source initiative, it also enables researcher collaboration on future developments. I am a full time employee at Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, California.« less

True or false: do 5-year-olds understand belief?

PubMed

Fabricius, William V; Boyer, Ty W; Weimer, Amy A; Carroll, Kathleen

2010-11-01

In 3 studies (N = 188) we tested the hypothesis that children use a perceptual access approach to reason about mental states before they understand beliefs. The perceptual access hypothesis predicts a U-shaped developmental pattern of performance in true belief tasks, in which 3-year-olds who reason about reality should succeed, 4- to 5-year-olds who use perceptual access reasoning should fail, and older children who use belief reasoning should succeed. The results of Study 1 revealed the predicted pattern in 2 different true belief tasks. The results of Study 2 disconfirmed several alternate explanations based on possible pragmatic and inhibitory demands of the true belief tasks. In Study 3, we compared 2 methods of classifying individuals according to which 1 of the 3 reasoning strategies (reality reasoning, perceptual access reasoning, belief reasoning) they used. The 2 methods gave converging results. Both methods indicated that the majority of children used the same approach across tasks and that it was not until after 6 years of age that most children reasoned about beliefs. We conclude that because most prior studies have failed to detect young children's use of perceptual access reasoning, they have overestimated their understanding of false beliefs. We outline several theoretical implications that follow from the perceptual access hypothesis.

Comparison of Time-to-First Event and Recurrent Event Methods in Randomized Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Claggett, Brian; Pocock, Stuart; Wei, L J; Pfeffer, Marc A; McMurray, John J V; Solomon, Scott D

2018-03-27

Background -Most Phase-3 trials feature time-to-first event endpoints for their primary and/or secondary analyses. In chronic diseases where a clinical event can occur more than once, recurrent-event methods have been proposed to more fully capture disease burden and have been assumed to improve statistical precision and power compared to conventional "time-to-first" methods. Methods -To better characterize factors that influence statistical properties of recurrent-events and time-to-first methods in the evaluation of randomized therapy, we repeatedly simulated trials with 1:1 randomization of 4000 patients to active vs control therapy, with true patient-level risk reduction of 20% (i.e. RR=0.80). For patients who discontinued active therapy after a first event, we assumed their risk reverted subsequently to their original placebo-level risk. Through simulation, we varied a) the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk and b) the extent of treatment discontinuation. Findings were compared with those from actual randomized clinical trials. Results -As the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk was increased, both time-to-first and recurrent-events methods lost statistical power to detect a true risk reduction and confidence intervals widened. The recurrent-events analyses continued to estimate the true RR=0.80 as heterogeneity increased, while the Cox model produced estimates that were attenuated. The power of recurrent-events methods declined as the rate of study drug discontinuation post-event increased. Recurrent-events methods provided greater power than time-to-first methods in scenarios where drug discontinuation was ≤30% following a first event, lesser power with drug discontinuation rates of ≥60%, and comparable power otherwise. We confirmed in several actual trials in chronic heart failure that treatment effect estimates were attenuated when estimated via the Cox model and that increased statistical power from recurrent-events methods was most pronounced in trials with lower treatment discontinuation rates. Conclusions -We find that the statistical power of both recurrent-events and time-to-first methods are reduced by increasing heterogeneity of patient risk, a parameter not included in conventional power and sample size formulas. Data from real clinical trials are consistent with simulation studies, confirming that the greatest statistical gains from use of recurrent-events methods occur in the presence of high patient heterogeneity and low rates of study drug discontinuation.

Wing motion measurement and aerodynamics of hovering true hoverflies.

PubMed

Mou, Xiao Lei; Liu, Yan Peng; Sun, Mao

2011-09-01

Most hovering insects flap their wings in a horizontal plane (body having a large angle from the horizontal), called `normal hovering'. But some of the best hoverers, e.g. true hoverflies, hover with an inclined stroke plane (body being approximately horizontal). In the present paper, wing and body kinematics of four freely hovering true hoverflies were measured using three-dimensional high-speed video. The measured wing kinematics was used in a Navier-Stokes solver to compute the aerodynamic forces of the insects. The stroke amplitude of the hoverflies was relatively small, ranging from 65 to 85 deg, compared with that of normal hovering. The angle of attack in the downstroke (∼50 deg) was much larger that in the upstroke (∼20 deg), unlike normal-hovering insects, whose downstroke and upstroke angles of attack are not very different. The major part of the weight-supporting force (approximately 86%) was produced in the downstroke and it was contributed by both the lift and the drag of the wing, unlike the normal-hovering case in which the weight-supporting force is approximately equally contributed by the two half-strokes and the lift principle is mainly used to produce the force. The mass-specific power was 38.59-46.3 and 27.5-35.4 W kg(-1) in the cases of 0 and 100% elastic energy storage, respectively. Comparisons with previously published results of a normal-hovering true hoverfly and with results obtained by artificially making the insects' stroke planes horizontal show that for the true hoverflies, the power requirement for inclined stroke-plane hover is only a little (<10%) larger than that of normal hovering.

Risk management and precaution: insights on the cautious use of evidence.

PubMed Central

Hrudey, Steve E; Leiss, William

2003-01-01

Risk management, done well, should be inherently precautionary. Adopting an appropriate degree of precaution with respect to feared health and environmental hazards is fundamental to risk management. The real problem is in deciding how precautionary to be in the face of inevitable uncertainties, demanding that we understand the equally inevitable false positives and false negatives from screening evidence. We consider a framework for detection and judgment of evidence of well-characterized hazards, using the concepts of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value that are well established for medical diagnosis. Our confidence in predicting the likelihood of a true danger inevitably will be poor for rare hazards because of the predominance of false positives; failing to detect a true danger is less likely because false negatives must be rarer than the danger itself. Because most controversial environmental hazards arise infrequently, this truth poses a dilemma for risk management. PMID:14527835

Flight test evaluation of predicted light aircraft drag, performance, and stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smetana, F. O.; Fox, S. R.

1979-01-01

A technique was developed which permits simultaneous extraction of complete lift, drag, and thrust power curves from time histories of a single aircraft maneuver such as a pull up (from V max to V stall) and pushover (to V max for level flight). The technique, which is an extension of nonlinear equations of motion of the parameter identification methods of Iliff and Taylor and includes provisions for internal data compatibility improvement as well, was shown to be capable of correcting random errors in the most sensitive data channel and yielding highly accurate results. Flow charts, listings, sample inputs and outputs for the relevant routines are provided as appendices. This technique was applied to flight data taken on the ATLIT aircraft. Lack of adequate knowledge of the correct full throttle thrust horsepower true airspeed variation and considerable internal data inconsistency made it impossible to apply the trajectory matching features of the technique.

Dynamics of Single-Photon Emission from Electrically Pumped Color Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khramtsov, Igor A.; Agio, Mario; Fedyanin, Dmitry Yu.

2017-08-01

Low-power, high-speed, and bright electrically driven true single-photon sources, which are able to operate at room temperature, are vital for the practical realization of quantum-communication networks and optical quantum computations. Color centers in semiconductors are currently the best candidates; however, in spite of their intensive study in the past decade, the behavior of color centers in electrically controlled systems is poorly understood. Here we present a physical model and establish a theoretical approach to address single-photon emission dynamics of electrically pumped color centers, which interprets experimental results. We support our analysis with self-consistent numerical simulations of a single-photon emitting diode based on a single nitrogen-vacancy center in diamond and predict the second-order autocorrelation function and other emission characteristics. Our theoretical findings demonstrate remarkable agreement with the experimental results and pave the way to the understanding of single-electron and single-photon processes in semiconductors.

Study of Servo Press with a Flywheel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tso, Pei-Lum; Li, Cheng-Ho

The servo press with a flywheel is able to provide flexible motions with energy-saving merit, but its true potential has not been thoroughly studied and verified. In this paper, such the “hybrid-driven” servo press is focused on, and the stamping capacity and the energy distribution between the flywheel and the servomotor are investigated. The capacity is derived based on the principle of energy conservation, and a method of using a capacity percentage plane for evaluation is proposed. A case study is included to illustrate and interpret that the stamping capacity is highly dependent on the programmed punch motions, thus the capacity prediction is always necessary while applying this kind of servo press. The energy distribution is validated by blanking experiments, and the results indicate that the servomotor needs only to provide 15% to the flywheel torque, 12% of the total stamping energy. This validates that the servomotor power is significantly saved in comparison with conventional servo presses.

[Predictive factors of contamination in a blood culture with bacterial growth in an Emergency Department].

PubMed

Hernández-Bou, S; Trenchs Sainz de la Maza, V; Esquivel Ojeda, J N; Gené Giralt, A; Luaces Cubells, C

2015-06-01

The aim of this study is to identify predictive factors of bacterial contamination in positive blood cultures (BC) collected in an emergency department. A prospective, observational and analytical study was conducted on febrile children aged on to 36 months, who had no risk factors of bacterial infection, and had a BC collected in the Emergency Department between November 2011 and October 2013 in which bacterial growth was detected. The potential BC contamination predicting factors analysed were: maximum temperature, time to positivity, initial Gram stain result, white blood cell count, absolute neutrophil count, band count, and C-reactive protein (CRP). Bacteria grew in 169 BC. Thirty (17.8%) were finally considered true positives and 139 (82.2%) false positives. All potential BC contamination predicting factors analysed, except maximum temperature, showed significant differences between true positives and false positives. CRP value, time to positivity, and initial Gram stain result are the best predictors of false positives in BC. The positive predictive values of a CRP value≤30mg/L, BC time to positivity≥16h, and initial Gram stain suggestive of a contaminant in predicting a FP, are 95.1, 96.9 and 97.5%, respectively. When all 3 conditions are applied, their positive predictive value is 100%. Four (8.3%) patients with a false positive BC and discharged to home were revaluated in the Emergency Department. The majority of BC obtained in the Emergency Department that showed positive were finally considered false positives. Initial Gram stain, time to positivity, and CRP results are valuable diagnostic tests in distinguishing between true positives and false positives in BC. The early detection of false positives will allow minimising their negative consequences. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

47 CFR 74.1235 - Power limitations and antenna systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... EXPERIMENTAL RADIO, AUXILIARY, SPECIAL BROADCAST AND OTHER PROGRAM DISTRIBUTIONAL SERVICES FM Broadcast... each radial spaced 30 degrees apart and with the bearing of the first radial bearing true north. Each...

47 CFR 74.1235 - Power limitations and antenna systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... EXPERIMENTAL RADIO, AUXILIARY, SPECIAL BROADCAST AND OTHER PROGRAM DISTRIBUTIONAL SERVICES FM Broadcast... each radial spaced 30 degrees apart and with the bearing of the first radial bearing true north. Each...

47 CFR 74.1235 - Power limitations and antenna systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... EXPERIMENTAL RADIO, AUXILIARY, SPECIAL BROADCAST AND OTHER PROGRAM DISTRIBUTIONAL SERVICES FM Broadcast... each radial spaced 30 degrees apart and with the bearing of the first radial bearing true north. Each...

47 CFR 74.1235 - Power limitations and antenna systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... EXPERIMENTAL RADIO, AUXILIARY, SPECIAL BROADCAST AND OTHER PROGRAM DISTRIBUTIONAL SERVICES FM Broadcast... each radial spaced 30 degrees apart and with the bearing of the first radial bearing true north. Each...

47 CFR 74.1235 - Power limitations and antenna systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... EXPERIMENTAL RADIO, AUXILIARY, SPECIAL BROADCAST AND OTHER PROGRAM DISTRIBUTIONAL SERVICES FM Broadcast... each radial spaced 30 degrees apart and with the bearing of the first radial bearing true north. Each...

Lessons for Higher Education: The University as a Site of Activism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lynch, Kathleen

2010-01-01

Len Barton is acutely aware of the power of the academy to either enhance critical thinking or to depress it. He is a true academic, never accepting the received wisdom or perspective of any given sociological standpoint, no matter how powerful or fashionable it was at the time. He has encouraged and promoted a unique blend of professional and…

18 CFR 1306.6 - Expense of transfer of title and proration of taxes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Expense of transfer of title and proration of taxes. 1306.6 Section 1306.6 Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE... property by TVA: (a) TVA will, to the extent it deems fair and reasonable, bear all expenses incidental to...

26 CFR 25.2503-4 - Transfer for the benefit of a minor.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 14 2011-04-01 2010-04-01 true Transfer for the benefit of a minor. 25.2503-4... Transfer for the benefit of a minor. (a) Section 2503(c) provides that no part of a transfer for the..., if the minor is given a power of appointment exercisable during lifetime or is given a power of...

18 CFR 410.1 - Basin regulations-Water Code and Administrative Manual-Part III Water Quality Regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Basin regulations-Water Code and Administrative Manual-Part III Water Quality Regulations. 410.1 Section 410.1 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL BASIN REGULATIONS; WATER CODE AND ADMINISTRATIVE MANUAL-PART III...

18 CFR 701.310 - Disclosure of record to person other than the individual to whom it pertains.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Disclosure of record to person other than the individual to whom it pertains. 701.310 Section 701.310 Conservation of Power and Water Resources WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL COUNCIL ORGANIZATION Protection of Privacy § 701.310 Disclosure...

Predicting lumber volume and value of young-growth true firs: user's guide.

Treesearch

Susan Ernst; W.Y. Pong

1982-01-01

Equations are presented for predicting the volume and value of young-growth red, white, and grand firs. Examples of how to use them are also given. These equations were developed on trees less than 140 years old from areas in southern Oregon, northern California, and Idaho.

Classifier performance prediction for computer-aided diagnosis using a limited dataset.

PubMed

Sahiner, Berkman; Chan, Heang-Ping; Hadjiiski, Lubomir

2008-04-01

In a practical classifier design problem, the true population is generally unknown and the available sample is finite-sized. A common approach is to use a resampling technique to estimate the performance of the classifier that will be trained with the available sample. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare the ability of the different resampling techniques in training the classifier and predicting its performance under the constraint of a finite-sized sample. The true population for the two classes was assumed to be multivariate normal distributions with known covariance matrices. Finite sets of sample vectors were drawn from the population. The true performance of the classifier is defined as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) when the classifier designed with the specific sample is applied to the true population. We investigated methods based on the Fukunaga-Hayes and the leave-one-out techniques, as well as three different types of bootstrap methods, namely, the ordinary, 0.632, and 0.632+ bootstrap. The Fisher's linear discriminant analysis was used as the classifier. The dimensionality of the feature space was varied from 3 to 15. The sample size n2 from the positive class was varied between 25 and 60, while the number of cases from the negative class was either equal to n2 or 3n2. Each experiment was performed with an independent dataset randomly drawn from the true population. Using a total of 1000 experiments for each simulation condition, we compared the bias, the variance, and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the AUC estimated using the different resampling techniques relative to the true AUC (obtained from training on a finite dataset and testing on the population). Our results indicated that, under the study conditions, there can be a large difference in the RMSE obtained using different resampling methods, especially when the feature space dimensionality is relatively large and the sample size is small. Under this type of conditions, the 0.632 and 0.632+ bootstrap methods have the lowest RMSE, indicating that the difference between the estimated and the true performances obtained using the 0.632 and 0.632+ bootstrap will be statistically smaller than those obtained using the other three resampling methods. Of the three bootstrap methods, the 0.632+ bootstrap provides the lowest bias. Although this investigation is performed under some specific conditions, it reveals important trends for the problem of classifier performance prediction under the constraint of a limited dataset.

Prediction accuracy of direct and indirect approaches, and their relationships with prediction ability of calibration models.

PubMed

Belay, T K; Dagnachew, B S; Boison, S A; Ådnøy, T

2018-03-28

Milk infrared spectra are routinely used for phenotyping traits of interest through links developed between the traits and spectra. Predicted individual traits are then used in genetic analyses for estimated breeding value (EBV) or for phenotypic predictions using a single-trait mixed model; this approach is referred to as indirect prediction (IP). An alternative approach [direct prediction (DP)] is a direct genetic analysis of (a reduced dimension of) the spectra using a multitrait model to predict multivariate EBV of the spectral components and, ultimately, also to predict the univariate EBV or phenotype for the traits of interest. We simulated 3 traits under different genetic (low: 0.10 to high: 0.90) and residual (zero to high: ±0.90) correlation scenarios between the 3 traits and assumed the first trait is a linear combination of the other 2 traits. The aim was to compare the IP and DP approaches for predictions of EBV and phenotypes under the different correlation scenarios. We also evaluated relationships between performances of the 2 approaches and the accuracy of calibration equations. Moreover, the effect of using different regression coefficients estimated from simulated phenotypes (β p ), true breeding values (β g ), and residuals (β r ) on performance of the 2 approaches were evaluated. The simulated data contained 2,100 parents (100 sires and 2,000 cows) and 8,000 offspring (4 offspring per cow). Of the 8,000 observations, 2,000 were randomly selected and used to develop links between the first and the other 2 traits using partial least square (PLS) regression analysis. The different PLS regression coefficients, such as β p , β g , and β r , were used in subsequent predictions following the IP and DP approaches. We used BLUP analyses for the remaining 6,000 observations using the true (co)variance components that had been used for the simulation. Accuracy of prediction (of EBV and phenotype) was calculated as a correlation between predicted and true values from the simulations. The results showed that accuracies of EBV prediction were higher in the DP than in the IP approach. The reverse was true for accuracy of phenotypic prediction when using β p but not when using β g and β r , where accuracy of phenotypic prediction in the DP was slightly higher than in the IP approach. Within the DP approach, accuracies of EBV when using β g were higher than when using β p only at the low genetic correlation scenario. However, we found no differences in EBV prediction accuracy between the β p and β g in the IP approach. Accuracy of the calibration models increased with an increase in genetic and residual correlations between the traits. Performance of both approaches increased with an increase in accuracy of the calibration models. In conclusion, the DP approach is a good strategy for EBV prediction but not for phenotypic prediction, where the classical PLS regression-based equations or the IP approach provided better results. The Authors. Published by FASS Inc. and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

The four truths of the storyteller.

PubMed

Guber, Peter

2007-12-01

A well-told story's power to captivate and inspire people has been recognized for thousands of years. Peter Guber is in the business of creating compelling stories: He has headed several entertainment companies--including Sony Pictures, PolyGram, and Columbia Pictures--and produced Rain Man, Batman, and The Color Purple, among many other movies. In this article, he offers a method for effectively exercising that power. For a story to enrapture its listeners, says Guber, it must be true to the teller, embodying his or her deepest values and conveying them with candor; true to the audience, delivering on the promise that it will be worth people's time by acknowledging listeners' needs and involving them in the narrative; true to the moment, appropriately matching the context--whether it's an address to 2,000 customers or a chat with a colleague over drinks--yet flexible enough to allow for improvisation; and true to the mission, conveying the teller's passion for the worthy endeavor that the story illustrates and enlisting support for it. In this article, Guber's advice--distilled not only from his years in the entertainment industry but also from an intense discussion over dinner one evening with storytelling experts from various walks of life--is illustrated with numerous examples of effective storytelling from business and elsewhere. Perhaps the most startling is a colorful anecdote about how Guber's own impromptu use of storytelling, while standing on the deck of a ship in Havana harbor, won Fidel Castro's grudging support for a film project.

ATLAAS: an automatic decision tree-based learning algorithm for advanced image segmentation in positron emission tomography.

PubMed

Berthon, Beatrice; Marshall, Christopher; Evans, Mererid; Spezi, Emiliano

2016-07-07

Accurate and reliable tumour delineation on positron emission tomography (PET) is crucial for radiotherapy treatment planning. PET automatic segmentation (PET-AS) eliminates intra- and interobserver variability, but there is currently no consensus on the optimal method to use, as different algorithms appear to perform better for different types of tumours. This work aimed to develop a predictive segmentation model, trained to automatically select and apply the best PET-AS method, according to the tumour characteristics. ATLAAS, the automatic decision tree-based learning algorithm for advanced segmentation is based on supervised machine learning using decision trees. The model includes nine PET-AS methods and was trained on a 100 PET scans with known true contour. A decision tree was built for each PET-AS algorithm to predict its accuracy, quantified using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), according to the tumour volume, tumour peak to background SUV ratio and a regional texture metric. The performance of ATLAAS was evaluated for 85 PET scans obtained from fillable and printed subresolution sandwich phantoms. ATLAAS showed excellent accuracy across a wide range of phantom data and predicted the best or near-best segmentation algorithm in 93% of cases. ATLAAS outperformed all single PET-AS methods on fillable phantom data with a DSC of 0.881, while the DSC for H&N phantom data was 0.819. DSCs higher than 0.650 were achieved in all cases. ATLAAS is an advanced automatic image segmentation algorithm based on decision tree predictive modelling, which can be trained on images with known true contour, to predict the best PET-AS method when the true contour is unknown. ATLAAS provides robust and accurate image segmentation with potential applications to radiation oncology.

ATLAAS: an automatic decision tree-based learning algorithm for advanced image segmentation in positron emission tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthon, Beatrice; Marshall, Christopher; Evans, Mererid; Spezi, Emiliano

2016-07-01

Accurate and reliable tumour delineation on positron emission tomography (PET) is crucial for radiotherapy treatment planning. PET automatic segmentation (PET-AS) eliminates intra- and interobserver variability, but there is currently no consensus on the optimal method to use, as different algorithms appear to perform better for different types of tumours. This work aimed to develop a predictive segmentation model, trained to automatically select and apply the best PET-AS method, according to the tumour characteristics. ATLAAS, the automatic decision tree-based learning algorithm for advanced segmentation is based on supervised machine learning using decision trees. The model includes nine PET-AS methods and was trained on a 100 PET scans with known true contour. A decision tree was built for each PET-AS algorithm to predict its accuracy, quantified using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), according to the tumour volume, tumour peak to background SUV ratio and a regional texture metric. The performance of ATLAAS was evaluated for 85 PET scans obtained from fillable and printed subresolution sandwich phantoms. ATLAAS showed excellent accuracy across a wide range of phantom data and predicted the best or near-best segmentation algorithm in 93% of cases. ATLAAS outperformed all single PET-AS methods on fillable phantom data with a DSC of 0.881, while the DSC for H&N phantom data was 0.819. DSCs higher than 0.650 were achieved in all cases. ATLAAS is an advanced automatic image segmentation algorithm based on decision tree predictive modelling, which can be trained on images with known true contour, to predict the best PET-AS method when the true contour is unknown. ATLAAS provides robust and accurate image segmentation with potential applications to radiation oncology.

Pioneering topological methods for network-based drug-target prediction by exploiting a brain-network self-organization theory.

PubMed

Durán, Claudio; Daminelli, Simone; Thomas, Josephine M; Haupt, V Joachim; Schroeder, Michael; Cannistraci, Carlo Vittorio

2017-04-26

The bipartite network representation of the drug-target interactions (DTIs) in a biosystem enhances understanding of the drugs' multifaceted action modes, suggests therapeutic switching for approved drugs and unveils possible side effects. As experimental testing of DTIs is costly and time-consuming, computational predictors are of great aid. Here, for the first time, state-of-the-art DTI supervised predictors custom-made in network biology were compared-using standard and innovative validation frameworks-with unsupervised pure topological-based models designed for general-purpose link prediction in bipartite networks. Surprisingly, our results show that the bipartite topology alone, if adequately exploited by means of the recently proposed local-community-paradigm (LCP) theory-initially detected in brain-network topological self-organization and afterwards generalized to any complex network-is able to suggest highly reliable predictions, with comparable performance with the state-of-the-art-supervised methods that exploit additional (non-topological, for instance biochemical) DTI knowledge. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the novel predictions revealed that each class of methods prioritizes distinct true interactions; hence, combining methodologies based on diverse principles represents a promising strategy to improve drug-target discovery. To conclude, this study promotes the power of bio-inspired computing, demonstrating that simple unsupervised rules inspired by principles of topological self-organization and adaptiveness arising during learning in living intelligent systems (like the brain) can efficiently equal perform complicated algorithms based on advanced, supervised and knowledge-based engineering. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Re-Form: FPGA-Powered True Codesign Flow for High-Performance Computing In The Post-Moore Era

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cappello, Franck; Yoshii, Kazutomo; Finkel, Hal

Multicore scaling will end soon because of practical power limits. Dark silicon is becoming a major issue even more than the end of Moore’s law. In the post-Moore era, the energy efficiency of computing will be a major concern. FPGAs could be a key to maximizing the energy efficiency. In this paper we address severe challenges in the adoption of FPGA in HPC and describe “Re-form,” an FPGA-powered codesign flow.

Political and Military Intention Estimation: A Taxonometric Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-11-01

which govern (a state$’s] use of military, economic,v dip1i~inatic, political, and propaganda instruments of power for the purposes of reaching certain...ess to engage British naval power with what the British took to be a far less capable - 4C navy than Germany in fact peosessed. Similarly, U.S...intentions of potential advertaries. It is also quite naturally true that military proftssionals tend to see military power its the pritu.nv- dotermin- ant t

Predictions of fire behavior and resistance to control: for use with photo series for the sierra mixed conifer type and the sierra true fir type.

Treesearch

Franklin R. Ward; David V. Sandberg

1981-01-01

This publication presents tables on the behavior of fire and the resistance: of fuels to control. The information is to be used with the photos in the publication, "Photo Series for Quantifying Forest Residues in the Sierra Mixed Conifer Type, Sierra True Fir Type" (Maxwell, Wayne G.; Ward, Franklin R. 1979. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-095. Portland, OR: U.S....

The effects of interaction with the device described by procedural text on recall, true/false, and task performance.

PubMed

Diehl, V A; Mills, C B

1995-11-01

In two experiments, subjects interacted to different extents with relevant devices while reading two complex multistep procedural texts and were then tested with task performance time, true/false, and recall measures. While reading, subjects performed the task (read and do), saw the experimenter perform the task (read and see experimenter do), imagined doing the task (read and imagine), looked at the device while reading (read and see), or only read (read only). Van Dijk and Kintsch's (1983) text representation theory led to the prediction that exposure to the task device (in the read-and-do, read-and-see, and read-and-see-experimenter-do conditions) would lead to the development of a stronger situation model and therefore faster task performance, whereas the read-only and read-and-see conditions would lead to a better textbase, and therefore better performance on the true/false and recall tasks. Paivio's (1991) dual coding theory led to the opposite prediction for recall. The results supported the text representation theory with task performance and recall. The read-and-see condition produced consistently good performance on the true/false measure. Amount of text study time contributed to recall performance. These findings support the notion that information available while reading leads to differential development of representations in memory, which, in turn, causes differences in performance on various measures.

10 CFR 431.324 - Uniform test method for the measurement of energy efficiency and standby mode energy consumption...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... ballast in accordance with the circuit shown in Figure 2. ER09MR10.006 (iii) Power Line Carrier (PLC) Control Signal. Measure the PLC control signal power (watts), using a wattmeter capable of indicating true... wattmeter must have a frequency response that is at least 10 times higher than the PLC being measured to...

12 CFR 559.13 - How may a savings association exercise its salvage power in connection with a service corporation...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2014-01-01 2012-01-01 true How may a savings association exercise its... Regulations Applicable to All Savings Associations § 559.13 How may a savings association exercise its salvage... section, a savings association (“you”) may exercise your salvage power to make a contribution or a loan...

18 CFR 1309.7 - Is the use of reasonable factors other than age an exception to the rules against age...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Is the use of reasonable... Conservation of Power and Water Resources TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY NONDISCRIMINATION WITH RESPECT TO AGE... ages. An action may be based on a factor other than age only if the factor bears a direct and...

Amasia and Supercontinent Formation by Orthoversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, R. N.; Evans, D. A.; Kilian, T. M.

2015-12-01

Traditional models of the supercontinent cycle predict that the next supercontinent—'Amasia'—will form either where Pangaea rifted (the 'introversion' model) or on the opposite side of the world (the 'extroversion' models). In contrast, a new model termed "orthoversion", predicts a new supercontinent will form 90° away from the previous one, somewhere along the subduction girdle encircling its predecessor. As continents are expected to aggregate over mantle convective downwellings, orthoversion predicts that a continent central to the assembling supercontinent would plot 90° away from the center of the dispersing continent. Supercontinent centers can be quantified by identifying the long-lived axis of oscillatory true polar wander associated with each supercontinent cycle; measuring the angle between two successive true polar wander axes allows one to test between the various models (0˚, 90˚, or 180˚) of supercontinent formation. The past three supercontinents (Pangea, Rodinia, and Nuna) appear to follow the 90° "orthoversion" model closely. Orthoversion predicts that Amasia will take form ~100 million years from now over the North Pole by closing the Caribbean and Artic oceans which are located in Pangea's subduction girdle.

Fractional flow reserve and coronary bifurcation anatomy: a novel quantitative model to assess and report the stenosis severity of bifurcation lesions.

PubMed

Tu, Shengxian; Echavarria-Pinto, Mauro; von Birgelen, Clemens; Holm, Niels R; Pyxaras, Stylianos A; Kumsars, Indulis; Lam, Ming Kai; Valkenburg, Ilona; Toth, Gabor G; Li, Yingguang; Escaned, Javier; Wijns, William; Reiber, Johan H C

2015-04-20

The aim of this study was to develop a new model for assessment of stenosis severity in a bifurcation lesion including its core. The diagnostic performance of this model, powered by 3-dimensional quantitative coronary angiography to predict the functional significance of obstructive bifurcation stenoses, was evaluated using fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the reference standard. Development of advanced quantitative models might help to establish a relationship between bifurcation anatomy and FFR. Patients who had undergone coronary angiography and interventions in 5 European cardiology centers were randomly selected and analyzed. Different bifurcation fractal laws, including Murray, Finet, and HK laws, were implemented in the bifurcation model, resulting in different degrees of stenosis severity. A total of 78 bifurcation lesions in 73 patients were analyzed. In 51 (65%) bifurcations, FFR was measured in the main vessel. A total of 34 (43.6%) interrogated vessels had an FFR≤0.80. Correlation between FFR and diameter stenosis was poor by conventional straight analysis (ρ=-0.23, p<0.001) but significantly improved by bifurcation analyses: the highest by the HK law (ρ=-0.50, p<0.001), followed by the Finet law (ρ=-0.49, p<0.001), and the Murray law (ρ=-0.41, p<0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve for predicting FFR≤0.80 was significantly higher by bifurcation analysis compared with straight analysis: 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.61 to 0.82) versus 0.60 (95% confidence interval: 0.49 to 0.71; p=0.001). Applying a threshold of ≥50% diameter stenosis, as assessed by the bifurcation model, to predict FFR≤0.80 resulted in 23 true positives, 27 true negatives, 17 false positives, and 11 false negatives. The new bifurcation model provides a comprehensive assessment of bifurcation anatomy. Compared with straight analysis, identification of lesions with preserved FFR values in obstructive bifurcation stenoses was improved. Nevertheless, accuracy was limited by using solely anatomical parameters. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How and how much does RAD-seq bias genetic diversity estimates?

PubMed

Cariou, Marie; Duret, Laurent; Charlat, Sylvain

2016-11-08

RAD-seq is a powerful tool, increasingly used in population genomics. However, earlier studies have raised red flags regarding possible biases associated with this technique. In particular, polymorphism on restriction sites results in preferential sampling of closely related haplotypes, so that RAD data tends to underestimate genetic diversity. Here we (1) clarify the theoretical basis of this bias, highlighting the potential confounding effects of population structure and selection, (2) confront predictions to real data from in silico digestion of full genomes and (3) provide a proof of concept toward an ABC-based correction of the RAD-seq bias. Under a neutral and panmictic model, we confirm the previously established relationship between the true polymorphism and its RAD-based estimation, showing a more pronounced bias when polymorphism is high. Using more elaborate models, we show that selection, resulting in heterogeneous levels of polymorphism along the genome, exacerbates the bias and leads to a more pronounced underestimation. On the contrary, spatial genetic structure tends to reduce the bias. We confront the neutral and panmictic model to "ideal" empirical data (in silico RAD-sequencing) using full genomes from natural populations of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster and the fungus Shizophyllum commune, harbouring respectively moderate and high genetic diversity. In D. melanogaster, predictions fit the model, but the small difference between the true and RAD polymorphism makes this comparison insensitive to deviations from the model. In the highly polymorphic fungus, the model captures a large part of the bias but makes inaccurate predictions. Accordingly, ABC corrections based on this model improve the estimations, albeit with some imprecisions. The RAD-seq underestimation of genetic diversity associated with polymorphism in restriction sites becomes more pronounced when polymorphism is high. In practice, this means that in many systems where polymorphism does not exceed 2 %, the bias is of minor importance in the face of other sources of uncertainty, such as heterogeneous bases composition or technical artefacts. The neutral panmictic model provides a practical mean to correct the bias through ABC, albeit with some imprecisions. More elaborate ABC methods might integrate additional parameters, such as population structure and selection, but their opposite effects could hinder accurate corrections.

Semidefinite Relaxation-Based Optimization of Multiple-Input Wireless Power Transfer Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Hans-Dieter; Sarris, Costas D.

2017-11-01

An optimization procedure for multi-transmitter (MISO) wireless power transfer (WPT) systems based on tight semidefinite relaxation (SDR) is presented. This method ensures physical realizability of MISO WPT systems designed via convex optimization -- a robust, semi-analytical and intuitive route to optimizing such systems. To that end, the nonconvex constraints requiring that power is fed into rather than drawn from the system via all transmitter ports are incorporated in a convex semidefinite relaxation, which is efficiently and reliably solvable by dedicated algorithms. A test of the solution then confirms that this modified problem is equivalent (tight relaxation) to the original (nonconvex) one and that the true global optimum has been found. This is a clear advantage over global optimization methods (e.g. genetic algorithms), where convergence to the true global optimum cannot be ensured or tested. Discussions of numerical results yielded by both the closed-form expressions and the refined technique illustrate the importance and practicability of the new method. It, is shown that this technique offers a rigorous optimization framework for a broad range of current and emerging WPT applications.

Coherent-Anomaly Method in Critical Phenomena. III.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiao; Katori, Makoto; Suzuki, Masuo

Two kinds of systematic mean-field transfer-matrix methods are formulated in the 2-dimensional Ising spin system, by introducing Weiss-like and Bethe-like approximations. All the critical exponents as well as the true critical point can be estimated in these methods following the CAM procedure. The numerical results of the above system are Tc* = 2.271 (J/kB), γ=γ' ≃ 1.749, β≃0.131 and δ ≃ 15.1. The specific heat is confirmed to be continuous and to have a logarithmic divergence at the true critical point, i.e., α=α'=0. Thus, the finite-degree-of-approximation scaling ansatz is shown to be correct and very powerful in practical estimations of the critical exponents as well as the true critical point.

Systems Dynamic Modeling of the Stomatal Guard Cell Predicts Emergent Behaviors in Transport, Signaling, and Volume Control1[W][OA

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhong-Hua; Hills, Adrian; Bätz, Ulrike; Amtmann, Anna; Lew, Virgilio L.; Blatt, Michael R.

2012-01-01

The dynamics of stomatal movements and their consequences for photosynthesis and transpirational water loss have long been incorporated into mathematical models, but none have been developed from the bottom up that are widely applicable in predicting stomatal behavior at a cellular level. We previously established a systems dynamic model incorporating explicitly the wealth of biophysical and kinetic knowledge available for guard cell transport, signaling, and homeostasis. Here we describe the behavior of the model in response to experimentally documented changes in primary pump activities and malate (Mal) synthesis imposed over a diurnal cycle. We show that the model successfully recapitulates the cyclic variations in H+, K+, Cl−, and Mal concentrations in the cytosol and vacuole known for guard cells. It also yields a number of unexpected and counterintuitive outputs. Among these, we report a diurnal elevation in cytosolic-free Ca2+ concentration and an exchange of vacuolar Cl− with Mal, both of which find substantiation in the literature but had previously been suggested to require additional and complex levels of regulation. These findings highlight the true predictive power of the OnGuard model in providing a framework for systems analysis of stomatal guard cells, and they demonstrate the utility of the OnGuard software and HoTSig library in exploring fundamental problems in cellular physiology and homeostasis. PMID:22635112

Discovery and validation of information theory-based transcription factor and cofactor binding site motifs.

PubMed

Lu, Ruipeng; Mucaki, Eliseos J; Rogan, Peter K

2017-03-17

Data from ChIP-seq experiments can derive the genome-wide binding specificities of transcription factors (TFs) and other regulatory proteins. We analyzed 765 ENCODE ChIP-seq peak datasets of 207 human TFs with a novel motif discovery pipeline based on recursive, thresholded entropy minimization. This approach, while obviating the need to compensate for skewed nucleotide composition, distinguishes true binding motifs from noise, quantifies the strengths of individual binding sites based on computed affinity and detects adjacent cofactor binding sites that coordinate with the targets of primary, immunoprecipitated TFs. We obtained contiguous and bipartite information theory-based position weight matrices (iPWMs) for 93 sequence-specific TFs, discovered 23 cofactor motifs for 127 TFs and revealed six high-confidence novel motifs. The reliability and accuracy of these iPWMs were determined via four independent validation methods, including the detection of experimentally proven binding sites, explanation of effects of characterized SNPs, comparison with previously published motifs and statistical analyses. We also predict previously unreported TF coregulatory interactions (e.g. TF complexes). These iPWMs constitute a powerful tool for predicting the effects of sequence variants in known binding sites, performing mutation analysis on regulatory SNPs and predicting previously unrecognized binding sites and target genes. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Using artificial intelligence to predict the equilibrated postdialysis blood urea concentration.

PubMed

Fernández, E A; Valtuille, R; Willshaw, P; Perazzo, C A

2001-01-01

Total dialysis dose (Kt/V) is considered to be a major determinant of morbidity and mortality in hemodialyzed patients. The continuous growth of the blood urea concentration over the 30- to 60-min period following dialysis, a phenomenon known as urea rebound, is a critical factor in determining the true dose of hemodialysis. The misestimation of the equilibrated (true) postdialysis blood urea or equilibrated Kt/V results in an inadequate hemodialysis prescription, with predictably poor clinical outcomes for the patients. The estimation of the equilibrated postdialysis blood urea (eqU) is therefore crucial in order to estimate the equilibrated (true) Kt/V. In this work we propose a supervised neural network to predict the eqU at 60 min after the end of hemodialysis. The use of this model is new in this field and is shown to be better than the currently accepted methods (Smye for eqU and Daugirdas for eqKt/V). With this approach we achieve a mean difference error of 0.22 +/- 7.71 mg/ml (mean % error: 1.88 +/- 13.46) on the eqU prediction and a mean difference error for eqKt/V of -0.01 +/- 0.15 (mean % error: -0.95 +/- 14.73). The equilibrated Kt/V estimated with the eqU calculated using the Smye formula is not appropriate because it showed a great dispersion. The Daugirdas double-pool Kt/V estimation formula appeared to be accurate and in agreement with the results of the HEMO study. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Using electronic data to predict the probability of true bacteremia from positive blood cultures.

PubMed

Wang, S J; Kuperman, G J; Ohno-Machado, L; Onderdonk, A; Sandige, H; Bates, D W

2000-01-01

As part of a project to help physicians make more appropriate treatment decisions, we implemented a clinical prediction rule that computes the probability of true bacteremia for positive blood cultures and displays this information when culture results are viewed online. Prior to implementing the rule, we performed a revalidation study to verify the accuracy of the previously published logistic regression model. We randomly selected 114 cases of positive blood cultures from a recent one-year period and performed a paper chart review with the help of infectious disease experts to determine whether the cultures were true positives or contaminants. Based on the results of this revalidation study, we updated the probabilities reported by the model and made additional enhancements to improve the accuracy of the rule. Next, we implemented the rule into our hospital's laboratory computer system so that the probability information was displayed with all positive blood culture results. We displayed the prediction rule information on approximately half of the 2184 positive blood cultures at our hospital that were randomly selected during a 6-month period. During the study, we surveyed 54 housestaff to obtain their opinions about the usefulness of this intervention. Fifty percent (27/54) indicated that the information had influenced their belief of the probability of bacteremia in their patients, and in 28% (15/54) of cases it changed their treatment decision. Almost all (98% (53/54)) indicated that they wanted to continue receiving this information. We conclude that the probability information provided by this clinical prediction rule is considered useful to physicians when making treatment decisions.

The experience of power: examining the effects of power on approach and inhibition tendencies.

PubMed

Anderson, Cameron; Jennifer, Berdahl L

2002-12-01

Two studies of task-focused dyads tested the approach/inhibition theory of power (D. Keltner, D. H. Gruenfeld, & C. Anderson, in press), which posits that having power increases the tendency to approach and decreases the tendency to inhibit. Results provided preliminary support for the theory: Participants higher in personality dominance or assigned control over resources expressed their true attitudes, experienced more positive and less negative emotion, were more likely to perceive rewards (i.e., that their partner liked them), and were less likely to perceive threats (e.g., that their partner felt anger toward them). Most of these effects were mediated by the sense of power, suggesting that subjective feelings of power are an important component in the effects of power.

Dinucleotide Composition in Animal RNA Viruses Is Shaped More by Virus Family than by Host Species.

PubMed

Di Giallonardo, Francesca; Schlub, Timothy E; Shi, Mang; Holmes, Edward C

2017-04-15

Viruses use the cellular machinery of their hosts for replication. It has therefore been proposed that the nucleotide and dinucleotide compositions of viruses should match those of their host species. If this is upheld, it may then be possible to use dinucleotide composition to predict the true host species of viruses sampled in metagenomic surveys. However, it is also clear that different taxonomic groups of viruses tend to have distinctive patterns of dinucleotide composition that may be independent of host species. To determine the relative strength of the effect of host versus virus family in shaping dinucleotide composition, we performed a comparative analysis of 20 RNA virus families from 15 host groupings, spanning two animal phyla and more than 900 virus species. In particular, we determined the odds ratios for the 16 possible dinucleotides and performed a discriminant analysis to evaluate the capability of virus dinucleotide composition to predict the correct virus family or host taxon from which it was isolated. Notably, while 81% of the data analyzed here were predicted to the correct virus family, only 62% of these data were predicted to their correct subphylum/class host and a mere 32% to their correct mammalian order. Similarly, dinucleotide composition has a weak predictive power for different hosts within individual virus families. We therefore conclude that dinucleotide composition is generally uniform within a virus family but less well reflects that of its host species. This has obvious implications for attempts to accurately predict host species from virus genome sequences alone. IMPORTANCE Determining the processes that shape virus genomes is central to understanding virus evolution and emergence. One question of particular importance is why nucleotide and dinucleotide frequencies differ so markedly between viruses. In particular, it is currently unclear whether host species or virus family has the biggest impact on dinucleotide frequencies and whether dinucleotide composition can be used to accurately predict host species. Using a comparative analysis, we show that dinucleotide composition has a strong phylogenetic association across different RNA virus families, such that dinucleotide composition can predict the family from which a virus sequence has been isolated. Conversely, dinucleotide composition has a poorer predictive power for the different host species within a virus family and across different virus families, indicating that the host has a relatively small impact on the dinucleotide composition of a virus genome. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Morphological Abnormalities in True Bugs (Heteroptera) near Swiss Nuclear Power Stations.

PubMed

Körblein, Alfred; Hesse-Honegger, Cornelia

2018-05-24

After the nuclear accidents of Chernobyl and Fukushima, several studies reported adverse health effects on wildlife animals. Epidemiological studies in humans found significant increases of leukaemia rates in young children residing within 5 km from nuclear power plants. This study investigates morphological abnormalities in true bugs (Heteroptera), collected in the environs of three Swiss nuclear power stations (NPS). The objective of the study is to test whether there is an increased frequency of abnormalities in the vicinity of NPS. We found a frequency of abnormalities of 14.1% at distances r<5km and a frequency of 6.8% for distances r>5km, a rate ratio of 2.1 (P<0.0001). The corresponding odds ratio was 2.26 (95% CI: 1.59, 3.18). We also conducted logistic regression of abnormality rates on reciprocal distance for each NPS site. The trend was significant for NPS Beznau (regression coefficient β=1.5 ± 0.3, P<0.0001) but not significant for NPS Gösgen und NPS Leibstadt with little samples within 5 km. To our knowledge, this study is the first to find adverse health effects on insects near operating nuclear power plants. Due to its ecological design, however, it cannot answer the question whether the effect is caused by radiation from nuclear power plants. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Energy Problems and Environmental Concern

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Train, Russell E.

1973-01-01

Discusses problems encountered in energy extraction and consumption, involving nuclear power plant construction, environmental consequences of energy systems, and energy conservation ethics. Indicates that the increasing concern over environmental quality is not the true cause of present energy problems. (CC)

Effects of calcium feeding strategy on true ileal phosphorus digestibility and true phosphorus retention determined with growing broilers.

PubMed

Perryman, K R; Masey O'Neill, H V; Bedford, M R; Dozier, W A

2016-05-01

An experiment utilizing 960 Ross × Ross 708 male broilers was conducted to determine the effects of Ca feeding strategy on true ileal (prececal) P digestibility (TIPD) and true P retention (TPR) of corn. Experimental diets were formulated with 1 of 3 dietary Ca feeding strategies (0.95%, 0.13%, or variable Ca concentrations to maintain a 2.1:1 Ca:P ratio) and contain 0, 25, 50, or 75% corn. A practical corn-soybean meal diet (1.4:1 Ca:P ratio) was fed as a control. After receiving a common starter diet, experimental diets were fed from 19 to 26 d of age. After a 48-h dietary adaptation period, a 48-h retention assay was conducted. At 25 and 26 d of age, ileal digesta were collected from 8 birds per cage. Broilers consuming the control diet had higher (P<0.001) BW gain, feed intake, digesta P, and excreta P than broilers consuming the corn titration diets. Digesta and excreta P increased (linear, P<0.05) with graded increases of corn. True ileal P digestibility and TPR were highest (P<0.05) for diets with 0.13% Ca (57.3 and 69.5%, respectively) compared with diets formulated with a 2.1:1 Ca:P ratio (41.2 and 37.8%, respectively) or 0.95% Ca (25.4 and 39.0%, respectively). Values for TPR were higher (P<0.05) than those for TIPD except when the dietary Ca:P ratio was fixed. Additionally, negative endogenous P losses were predicted by regression equations when TPR was estimated for birds fed titration diets with the fixed Ca:P ratio. Changing the Ca concentration of the diets to maintain a fixed Ca:P ratio influenced (P<0.001) apparent P retention, which affected the estimate for TPR due to the prediction of negative endogenous P losses. These data demonstrated that regression analysis may have limitations when estimating the TIPD or TPR of corn when formulating diets with different Ca feeding strategies. More research is necessary to elucidate the factors that contributed to regression equations predicting negative endogenous P losses. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

Analyzing degradation data with a random effects spline regression model

DOE PAGES

Fugate, Michael Lynn; Hamada, Michael Scott; Weaver, Brian Phillip

2017-03-17

This study proposes using a random effects spline regression model to analyze degradation data. Spline regression avoids having to specify a parametric function for the true degradation of an item. A distribution for the spline regression coefficients captures the variation of the true degradation curves from item to item. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real example using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach allows prediction of degradation of a population over time and estimation of reliability is easy to perform.

Analyzing degradation data with a random effects spline regression model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fugate, Michael Lynn; Hamada, Michael Scott; Weaver, Brian Phillip

This study proposes using a random effects spline regression model to analyze degradation data. Spline regression avoids having to specify a parametric function for the true degradation of an item. A distribution for the spline regression coefficients captures the variation of the true degradation curves from item to item. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real example using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach allows prediction of degradation of a population over time and estimation of reliability is easy to perform.

Accurate decisions in an uncertain world: collective cognition increases true positives while decreasing false positives.

PubMed

Wolf, Max; Kurvers, Ralf H J M; Ward, Ashley J W; Krause, Stefan; Krause, Jens

2013-04-07

In a wide range of contexts, including predator avoidance, medical decision-making and security screening, decision accuracy is fundamentally constrained by the trade-off between true and false positives. Increased true positives are possible only at the cost of increased false positives; conversely, decreased false positives are associated with decreased true positives. We use an integrated theoretical and experimental approach to show that a group of decision-makers can overcome this basic limitation. Using a mathematical model, we show that a simple quorum decision rule enables individuals in groups to simultaneously increase true positives and decrease false positives. The results from a predator-detection experiment that we performed with humans are in line with these predictions: (i) after observing the choices of the other group members, individuals both increase true positives and decrease false positives, (ii) this effect gets stronger as group size increases, (iii) individuals use a quorum threshold set between the average true- and false-positive rates of the other group members, and (iv) individuals adjust their quorum adaptively to the performance of the group. Our results have broad implications for our understanding of the ecology and evolution of group-living animals and lend themselves for applications in the human domain such as the design of improved screening methods in medical, forensic, security and business applications.

Accurate decisions in an uncertain world: collective cognition increases true positives while decreasing false positives

PubMed Central

Wolf, Max; Kurvers, Ralf H. J. M.; Ward, Ashley J. W.; Krause, Stefan; Krause, Jens

2013-01-01

In a wide range of contexts, including predator avoidance, medical decision-making and security screening, decision accuracy is fundamentally constrained by the trade-off between true and false positives. Increased true positives are possible only at the cost of increased false positives; conversely, decreased false positives are associated with decreased true positives. We use an integrated theoretical and experimental approach to show that a group of decision-makers can overcome this basic limitation. Using a mathematical model, we show that a simple quorum decision rule enables individuals in groups to simultaneously increase true positives and decrease false positives. The results from a predator-detection experiment that we performed with humans are in line with these predictions: (i) after observing the choices of the other group members, individuals both increase true positives and decrease false positives, (ii) this effect gets stronger as group size increases, (iii) individuals use a quorum threshold set between the average true- and false-positive rates of the other group members, and (iv) individuals adjust their quorum adaptively to the performance of the group. Our results have broad implications for our understanding of the ecology and evolution of group-living animals and lend themselves for applications in the human domain such as the design of improved screening methods in medical, forensic, security and business applications. PMID:23407830

Guilty, but not ashamed: "true" self-conceptions influence affective responses to personal shortcomings.

PubMed

Vess, Matthew; Schlegel, Rebecca J; Hicks, Joshua A; Arndt, Jamie

2014-06-01

The current research examined how true self-conceptions (who a person believes he or she truly is) influence negative self-relevant emotions in response to shortcomings. In Study 1 (N = 83), an Internet sample of adults completed a measure of authenticity, reflected on a shortcoming or positive life event, and completed state shame and guilt measures. In Study 2 (N = 49), undergraduates focused on true versus other determined self-attributes, received negative performance feedback, and completed state shame and guilt measures. In Study 3 (N = 138), undergraduates focused on self-determined versus other determined self-aspects, reflected on a shortcoming or neutral event, and completed state shame, guilt, and self-esteem measures. In Study 4 (N = 75), undergraduates thought about true self-attributes, an achievement, or an ordinary event; received positive or negative performance feedback; and completed state shame and guilt measures. In Study 1, differences in true self-expression positively predicted shame-free guilt (but not guilt-free shame) following reminders of a shortcoming. Studies 2-4 found that experimental activation of true self-conceptions increased shame-free guilt and generally decreased guilt-free shame in response to negative evaluative experiences. The findings offer novel insights into true self-conceptions by revealing their impact on negative self-conscious emotions. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sonographic landmarks to differentiate "false labor" and "early true labor" as a possible new application of ultrasound in labor ward.

PubMed

Bouzid, A; Kehila, M; Trabelsi, H; Abouda, H S; Ben Hmid, R; Chanoufi, M B

2017-04-01

To evaluate discrimination of clinical parameters and ultrasound examination to differentiate "false labor" and "true labor". In a prospective study during a period of 6 months, a total of 178 patients in term (37-41 weeks) consulting our obstetric unit for uterine contraction, were enrolled. Patients were examined separately by a midwife and a resident and separated into "true labor group" and "false labor group". The clinical characteristics of true versus false labor patients were compared. ROC curves were developed to determine an optimal cervical length and uterocervical angle for prediction of true labor. The prevalence of real labor was 57.3%. Patients who were in true labor had more painful and more frequent contractions. The "true labor" group had shorter cervical length and larger uterocervical angle. The optimal CL cut-off was 1.4mm with a specificity of 73% (RR 4.3, sensibility 63%, PPV 14%, NPV 95%). The optimal UCA cut off was 123° (RR 6.7, sensitivity 50%, specificity of 83%, PPV 10%, NPV 96%). The best performance was demonstrated by combined testing, yielding LHR+ that rich 13. In this study, we reported a new application of ultrasound to identify false labor and avoid unnecessary hospitalization with obstetric and adverse economic impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian predictive two-stage design for phase II clinical trials.

PubMed

Sambucini, Valeria

2008-04-15

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian two-stage design for phase II clinical trials, which represents a predictive version of the single threshold design (STD) recently introduced by Tan and Machin. The STD two-stage sample sizes are determined specifying a minimum threshold for the posterior probability that the true response rate exceeds a pre-specified target value and assuming that the observed response rate is slightly higher than the target. Unlike the STD, we do not refer to a fixed experimental outcome, but take into account the uncertainty about future data. In both stages, the design aims to control the probability of getting a large posterior probability that the true response rate exceeds the target value. Such a probability is expressed in terms of prior predictive distributions of the data. The performance of the design is based on the distinction between analysis and design priors, recently introduced in the literature. The properties of the method are studied when all the design parameters vary.

Development of Single-Seed Near-Infrared Spectroscopic Predictions of Corn and Soybeans Constituents Using Bulk Teference Values and Mean Spectra

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Near-Infrared reflectance spectroscopic prediction models were developed for common constituents of corn and soybeans using bulk reference values and mean spectra from single-seeds. The bulk reference model and a true single-seed model for soybean protein were compared to determine how well the bul...

Soviet Economic Policy Towards Eastern Europe

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-11-01

high. Without specifying the determinants of Soviet demand for "allegiance" in more detail, the model is not testable; we cannot predict how subsidy...trade inside (Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria). These countries are behaving as predicted by the model . If this hypothesis is true, the pattern of subsidies...also compares the sum of per capita subsidies by country between 1970 and 1982 with the sum of subsidies predicted by the model . Because of the poor

40 CFR 190.01 - Applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Applicability. 190.01 Section 190.01 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) RADIATION PROTECTION PROGRAMS ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION PROTECTION STANDARDS FOR NUCLEAR POWER OPERATIONS General Provisions § 190.01...

40 CFR 190.12 - Effective date.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Effective date. 190.12 Section 190.12 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) RADIATION PROTECTION PROGRAMS ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION PROTECTION STANDARDS FOR NUCLEAR POWER OPERATIONS Environmental Standards for the...

NREL: Renewable Resource Data Center - Wind Resource Related Links

Science.gov Websites

websites. Data can be purchased from companies such as AWS TruePower and 3Tier. Note: Listing other commercial companies does not imply endorsement by NREL. . Printable Version RReDC Home Biomass Resource

Evaluation of an ensemble of genetic models for prediction of a quantitative trait.

PubMed

Milton, Jacqueline N; Steinberg, Martin H; Sebastiani, Paola

2014-01-01

Many genetic markers have been shown to be associated with common quantitative traits in genome-wide association studies. Typically these associated genetic markers have small to modest effect sizes and individually they explain only a small amount of the variability of the phenotype. In order to build a genetic prediction model without fitting a multiple linear regression model with possibly hundreds of genetic markers as predictors, researchers often summarize the joint effect of risk alleles into a genetic score that is used as a covariate in the genetic prediction model. However, the prediction accuracy can be highly variable and selecting the optimal number of markers to be included in the genetic score is challenging. In this manuscript we present a strategy to build an ensemble of genetic prediction models from data and we show that the ensemble-based method makes the challenge of choosing the number of genetic markers more amenable. Using simulated data with varying heritability and number of genetic markers, we compare the predictive accuracy and inclusion of true positive and false positive markers of a single genetic prediction model and our proposed ensemble method. The results show that the ensemble of genetic models tends to include a larger number of genetic variants than a single genetic model and it is more likely to include all of the true genetic markers. This increased sensitivity is obtained at the price of a lower specificity that appears to minimally affect the predictive accuracy of the ensemble.

Adults' memories of childhood: true and false reports.

PubMed

Qin, Jianjian; Ogle, Christin M; Goodman, Gail S

2008-12-01

In 3 experiments, the authors examined factors that, according to the source-monitoring framework, might influence false memory formation and true/false memory discernment. In Experiment 1, combined effects of warning and visualization on false childhood memory formation were examined, as were individual differences in true and false childhood memories. Combining warnings and visualization led to the lowest false memory and highest true memory. Several individual difference factors (e.g., parental fearful attachment style) predicted false recall. In addition, true and false childhood memories differed (e.g., in amount of information). Experiment 2 examined relations between Deese/Roediger-McDermott task performance and false childhood memories. Deese/Roediger-McDermott performance (e.g., intrusion of unrelated words in free recall) was associated with false childhood memory, suggesting liberal response criteria in source decisions as a common underlying mechanism. Experiment 3 investigated adults' abilities to discern true and false childhood memory reports (e.g., by detecting differences in amount of information as identified in Experiment 1). Adults who were particularly successful in discerning such reports indicated reliance on event plausibility. Overall, the source-monitoring framework provided a viable explanatory framework. Implications for theory and clinical and forensic interviews are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Coherent-Anomaly Method in Critical Phenomena. III. Mean-Field Transfer-Matrix Method in the 2D Ising Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiao; Katori, Makoto; Suzuki, Masuo

1987-11-01

Two kinds of systematic mean-field transfer-matrix methods are formulated in the 2-dimensional Ising spin system, by introducing Weiss-like and Bethe-like approximations. All the critical exponents as well as the true critical point can be estimated in these methods following the CAM procedure. The numerical results of the above system are Tc*≃2.271 (J/kB), γ{=}γ'≃1.749, β≃0.131 and δ≃15.1. The specific heat is confirmd to be continuous and to have a logarithmic divergence at the true critical point, i.e., α{=}α'{=}0. Thus, the finite-degree-of-approximation scaling ansatz is shown to be correct and very powerful in practical estimations of the critical exponents as well as the true critical point.

pLoc-mAnimal: predict subcellular localization of animal proteins with both single and multiple sites.

PubMed

Cheng, Xiang; Zhao, Shu-Guang; Lin, Wei-Zhong; Xiao, Xuan; Chou, Kuo-Chen

2017-11-15

Cells are deemed the basic unit of life. However, many important functions of cells as well as their growth and reproduction are performed via the protein molecules located at their different organelles or locations. Facing explosive growth of protein sequences, we are challenged to develop fast and effective method to annotate their subcellular localization. However, this is by no means an easy task. Particularly, mounting evidences have indicated proteins have multi-label feature meaning that they may simultaneously exist at, or move between, two or more different subcellular location sites. Unfortunately, most of the existing computational methods can only be used to deal with the single-label proteins. Although the 'iLoc-Animal' predictor developed recently is quite powerful that can be used to deal with the animal proteins with multiple locations as well, its prediction quality needs to be improved, particularly in enhancing the absolute true rate and reducing the absolute false rate. Here we propose a new predictor called 'pLoc-mAnimal', which is superior to iLoc-Animal as shown by the compelling facts. When tested by the most rigorous cross-validation on the same high-quality benchmark dataset, the absolute true success rate achieved by the new predictor is 37% higher and the absolute false rate is four times lower in comparison with the state-of-the-art predictor. To maximize the convenience of most experimental scientists, a user-friendly web-server for the new predictor has been established at http://www.jci-bioinfo.cn/pLoc-mAnimal/, by which users can easily get their desired results without the need to go through the complicated mathematics involved. xxiao@gordonlifescience.org or kcchou@gordonlifescience.org. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Present Status and Extensions of the Monte Carlo Performance Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoogenboom, J. Eduard; Petrovic, Bojan; Martin, William R.

2014-06-01

The NEA Monte Carlo Performance benchmark started in 2011 aiming to monitor over the years the abilities to perform a full-size Monte Carlo reactor core calculation with a detailed power production for each fuel pin with axial distribution. This paper gives an overview of the contributed results thus far. It shows that reaching a statistical accuracy of 1 % for most of the small fuel zones requires about 100 billion neutron histories. The efficiency of parallel execution of Monte Carlo codes on a large number of processor cores shows clear limitations for computer clusters with common type computer nodes. However, using true supercomputers the speedup of parallel calculations is increasing up to large numbers of processor cores. More experience is needed from calculations on true supercomputers using large numbers of processors in order to predict if the requested calculations can be done in a short time. As the specifications of the reactor geometry for this benchmark test are well suited for further investigations of full-core Monte Carlo calculations and a need is felt for testing other issues than its computational performance, proposals are presented for extending the benchmark to a suite of benchmark problems for evaluating fission source convergence for a system with a high dominance ratio, for coupling with thermal-hydraulics calculations to evaluate the use of different temperatures and coolant densities and to study the correctness and effectiveness of burnup calculations. Moreover, other contemporary proposals for a full-core calculation with realistic geometry and material composition will be discussed.

Can integrated 18F-FDG PET/MR replace sentinel lymph node resection in malignant melanoma?

PubMed

Schaarschmidt, Benedikt Michael; Grueneisen, Johannes; Stebner, Vanessa; Klode, Joachim; Stoffels, Ingo; Umutlu, Lale; Schadendorf, Dirk; Heusch, Philipp; Antoch, Gerald; Pöppel, Thorsten Dirk

2018-06-06

To compare the sensitivity and specificity of 18F-fluordesoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT), 18F-FDG PET/magnetic resonance (18F-FDG PET/MR) and 18F-FDG PET/MR including diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) in the detection of sentinel lymph node metastases in patients suffering from malignant melanoma. Fifty-two patients with malignant melanoma (female: n = 30, male: n = 22, mean age 50.5 ± 16.0 years, mean tumor thickness 2.28 ± 1.97 mm) who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT and subsequent PET/MR & DWI for distant metastasis staging were included in this retrospective study. After hybrid imaging, lymphoscintigraphy including single photon emission computed tomography/CT (SPECT/CT) was performed to identify the sentinel lymph node prior to sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). In a total of 87 sentinel lymph nodes in 64 lymph node basins visible on SPECT/CT, 17 lymph node metastases were detected by histopathology. In separate sessions PET/CT, PET/MR, and PET/MR & DWI were assessed for sentinel lymph node metastases by two independent readers. Discrepant results were resolved in a consensus reading. Sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were calculated with histopathology following SPECT/CT guided SLNB as a reference standard. Compared with histopathology, lymph nodes were true positive in three cases, true negative in 65 cases, false positive in three cases and false negative in 14 cases in PET/CT. PET/MR was true positive in four cases, true negative in 63 cases, false positive in two cases and false negative in 13 cases. Hence, we observed a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 17.7, 95.6, 50.0 and 82.3% for PET/CT and 23.5, 96.9, 66.7 and 82.3% for PET/MR. In DWI, 56 sentinel lymph node basins could be analyzed. Here, the additional analysis of DWI led to two additional false positive findings, while the number of true positive findings could not be increased. In conclusion, integrated 18F-FDG PET/MR does not reliably differentiate N-positive from N-negative melanoma patients. Additional DWI does not increase the sensitivity of 18F-FDG PET/MR. Hence, sentinel lymph node biopsy cannot be replaced by 18F-FDG-PE/MR or 18F-FDG-PET/CT.

Modulation of the cortical false belief network during development.

PubMed

Sommer, Monika; Meinhardt, Jörg; Eichenmüller, Kerstin; Sodian, Beate; Döhnel, Katrin; Hajak, Göran

2010-10-01

The ability to represent false beliefs is commonly considered as to be the critical test for having a Theory of Mind (ToM). For correct predictions or explanations of other peoples' behavior it is necessary to understand that mental states are sometimes independent of reality and misrepresent the real state of the world. In contrast, when people hold true beliefs, predictions and explanations about behavior can simply be derived from reality. Previous neuroimaging studies with adults suggest that the dorsal medial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and the right temporo-parietal junction (rTPJ) are engaged in false belief reasoning. However, studies investigating the neural correlates of belief reasoning in children are rare. Using cartoon stories that depicted an unexpected transfer, we compared false belief reasoning with true belief reasoning in children of a narrow age range between 10 and 12years and in adults. In both groups, the dorsal medial frontal cortex was activated during false versus true belief reasoning. In contrast to adults, children did not selectively recruit the rTPJ during false belief reasoning. We found a group by belief interaction in the right rostral PFC and the posterior cingulate cortex. In these areas, children compared to adults showed increased activity associated with false belief reasoning in contrast to true belief reasoning. These results implicate modulation of the cortical network that underlies false belief reasoning during development and far beyond the time children successfully master false belief tasks. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An image-based approach for automatic detecting five true-leaves stage of cotton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yanan; Cao, Zhiguo; Wu, Xi; Yu, Zhenghong; Wang, Yu; Bai, Xiaodong

2013-10-01

Cotton, as one of the four major economic crops, is of great significance to the development of the national economy. Monitoring cotton growth status by automatic image-based detection makes sense due to its low-cost, low-labor and the capability of continuous observations. However, little research has been done to improve close observation of different growth stages of field crops using digital cameras. Therefore, algorithms proposed by us were developed to detect the growth information and predict the starting date of cotton automatically. In this paper, we introduce an approach for automatic detecting five true-leaves stage, which is a critical growth stage of cotton. On account of the drawbacks caused by illumination and the complex background, we cannot use the global coverage as the unique standard of judgment. Consequently, we propose a new method to determine the five true-leaves stage through detecting the node number between the main stem and the side stems, based on the agricultural meteorological observation specification. The error of the results between the predicted starting date with the proposed algorithm and artificial observations is restricted to no more than one day.

Evaluation of Radiation Belt Space Weather Forecasts for Internal Charging Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Coffey, Victoria N.; Jun, Insoo; Garrett, Henry B.

2007-01-01

A variety of static electron radiation belt models, space weather prediction tools, and energetic electron datasets are used by spacecraft designers and operations support personnel as internal charging code inputs to evaluate electrostatic discharge risks in space systems due to exposure to relativistic electron environments. Evaluating the environment inputs is often accomplished by comparing whether the data set or forecast tool reliability predicts measured electron flux (or fluence over a given period) for some chosen period. While this technique is useful as a model metric, it does not provide the information necessary to evaluate whether short term deviances of the predicted flux is important in the charging evaluations. In this paper, we use a 1-D internal charging model to compute electric fields generated in insulating materials as a function of time when exposed to relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting fields are assumed to represent the "true" electric fields and are compared with electric field values computed from relativistic electron environments derived from a variety of space environment and forecast tools. Deviances in predicted fields compared to the "true" fields which depend on insulator charging time constants will be evaluated as a potential metric for determining the importance of predicted and measured relativistic electron flux deviations over a range of time scales.

Validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Wu, X. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, and the surface vibration was used as input to the BEM to predict the sound intensity and sound power. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis. Noise predicted by the BEM was validated by sound intensity measurements. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: (1) sound power predicted by the BEM modeling using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; (2) sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and (3) sound power measured by a sound intensity scan. The sound power predicted from the BEM model using measured vibration data yields an excellent prediction of radiated noise. The sound power predicted by the combined FEM/BEM model also gives a good prediction of radiated noise except for a shift of the natural frequencies that are due to limitations in the FEM model.

Predictive uncertainty analysis of plume distribution for geological carbon sequestration using sparse-grid Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, X.; Zhang, G.

2013-12-01

Because of the extensive computational burden, parametric uncertainty analyses are rarely conducted for geological carbon sequestration (GCS) process based multi-phase models. The difficulty of predictive uncertainty analysis for the CO2 plume migration in realistic GCS models is not only due to the spatial distribution of the caprock and reservoir (i.e. heterogeneous model parameters), but also because the GCS optimization estimation problem has multiple local minima due to the complex nonlinear multi-phase (gas and aqueous), and multi-component (water, CO2, salt) transport equations. The geological model built by Doughty and Pruess (2004) for the Frio pilot site (Texas) was selected and assumed to represent the 'true' system, which was composed of seven different facies (geological units) distributed among 10 layers. We chose to calibrate the permeabilities of these facies. Pressure and gas saturation values from this true model were then extracted and used as observations for subsequent model calibration. Random noise was added to the observations to approximate realistic field conditions. Each simulation of the model lasts about 2 hours. In this study, we develop a new approach that improves computational efficiency of Bayesian inference by constructing a surrogate system based on an adaptive sparse-grid stochastic collocation method. This surrogate response surface global optimization algorithm is firstly used to calibrate the model parameters, then prediction uncertainty of the CO2 plume position is quantified due to the propagation from parametric uncertainty in the numerical experiments, which is also compared to the actual plume from the 'true' model. Results prove that the approach is computationally efficient for multi-modal optimization and prediction uncertainty quantification for computationally expensive simulation models. Both our inverse methodology and findings can be broadly applicable to GCS in heterogeneous storage formations.

40 CFR 190.11 - Variances for unusual operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Variances for unusual operations. 190.11 Section 190.11 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) RADIATION PROTECTION PROGRAMS ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION PROTECTION STANDARDS FOR NUCLEAR POWER OPERATIONS Environmental...

40 CFR 190.10 - Standards for normal operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Standards for normal operations. 190.10 Section 190.10 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) RADIATION PROTECTION PROGRAMS ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION PROTECTION STANDARDS FOR NUCLEAR POWER OPERATIONS Environmental Standards...

A prospective development study of software-guided radio-frequency ablation of primary and secondary liver tumors: Clinical intervention modelling, planning and proof for ablation cancer treatment (ClinicIMPPACT).

PubMed

Reinhardt, Martin; Brandmaier, Philipp; Seider, Daniel; Kolesnik, Marina; Jenniskens, Sjoerd; Sequeiros, Roberto Blanco; Eibisberger, Martin; Voglreiter, Philip; Flanagan, Ronan; Mariappan, Panchatcharam; Busse, Harald; Moche, Michael

2017-12-01

Radio-frequency ablation (RFA) is a promising minimal-invasive treatment option for early liver cancer, however monitoring or predicting the size of the resulting tissue necrosis during the RFA-procedure is a challenging task, potentially resulting in a significant rate of under- or over treatments. Currently there is no reliable lesion size prediction method commercially available. ClinicIMPPACT is designed as multicenter-, prospective-, non-randomized clinical trial to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of innovative planning and simulation software. 60 patients with early liver cancer will be included at four European clinical institutions and treated with the same RFA system. The preinterventional imaging datasets will be used for computational planning of the RFA treatment. All ablations will be simulated simultaneously to the actual RFA procedure, using the software environment developed in this project. The primary outcome measure is the comparison of the simulated ablation zones with the true lesions shown in follow-up imaging after one month, to assess accuracy of the lesion prediction. This unique multicenter clinical trial aims at the clinical integration of a dedicated software solution to accurately predict lesion size and shape after radiofrequency ablation of liver tumors. Accelerated and optimized workflow integration, and real-time intraoperative image processing, as well as inclusion of patient specific information, e.g. organ perfusion and registration of the real RFA needle position might make the introduced software a powerful tool for interventional radiologists to optimize patient outcomes.

Extinction measurements with low-power hsrl systems—error limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eloranta, Ed

2018-04-01

HSRL measurements of extinction are more difficult than backscatter measurements. This is particularly true for low-power, eye-safe systems. This paper looks at error sources that currently provide an error limit of 10-5 m-1 for boundary layer extinction measurements made with University of Wisconsin HSRL systems. These eye-safe systems typically use 300mW transmitters and 40 cm diameter receivers with a 10-4 radian field-of-view.

Strategy in Latin American Revolutionary Politics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-11-21

Also on the impor- tance of this future state apparatus see Rolando E. Bonachea and Nelson P. Valdes, eds., "Guerrilla Warfare: A Method," Che:Selected...that true power lay with the Guardia and its commander, Anastasio ("Tacho") Somoza Garcia . 8 Once in power, Somoza transformed the Liberal party into...and the PLN. The traditional political parties continued to decline in cohesion and efficacy under the dynasty. Somoza Garcia ruled until his

Evaluation of a Computational Model of Situational Awareness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burdick, Mark D.; Shively, R. Jay; Rutkewski, Michael (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Although the use of the psychological construct of situational awareness (SA) assists researchers in creating a flight environment that is safer and more predictable, its true potential remains untapped until a valid means of predicting SA a priori becomes available. Previous work proposed a computational model of SA (CSA) that sought to Fill that void. The current line of research is aimed at validating that model. The results show that the model accurately predicted SA in a piloted simulation.

Control of three dimensional particle flux to divertor using rotating RMP in the EAST tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, M.; Sun, Y.; Liang, Y.; Wang, L.; Xu, J.; Gu, S.; Lyu, B.; Wang, H. H.; Yang, X.; Zhong, F.; Chu, N.; Feng, W.; He, K.; Liu, Y. Q.; Qian, J.; Shi, T.; Shen, B.

2018-04-01

Controlling the steady state particle and heat flux impinging on the plasma facing components, as one of the main concerns of future fusion reactors, is still necessary when the transient power loads induced by edge localized modes (ELMs) have been eliminated by resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in high confinement tokamak experiments. This is especially true for long pulse operation. One promising solution is to use the rotating perturbed field. Recently rotating and differential phase scans of n  =  1 and 2 RMP fields have been operated for the first time in EAST discharges. The particle flux patterns on the divertor targets change synchronously with both rotating and phasing RMP fields as predicted by the modeled magnetic footprint patterns. The modeling with plasma response, which is calculated by MARS-F, is also carried out. The plasma response shows amplifying or screening effect to n  =  2 perturbations with different spectra. This changes the field line penetration depth rather than the general footprint shape. This has been verified by experimental observations on EAST. These experiments motivate further study of reducing both transient and steady state local power load and particle flux with the help of rotating RMPs in long pulse operation.

Evaluating surrogate endpoints, prognostic markers, and predictive markers: Some simple themes.

PubMed

Baker, Stuart G; Kramer, Barnett S

2015-08-01

A surrogate endpoint is an endpoint observed earlier than the true endpoint (a health outcome) that is used to draw conclusions about the effect of treatment on the unobserved true endpoint. A prognostic marker is a marker for predicting the risk of an event given a control treatment; it informs treatment decisions when there is information on anticipated benefits and harms of a new treatment applied to persons at high risk. A predictive marker is a marker for predicting the effect of treatment on outcome in a subgroup of patients or study participants; it provides more rigorous information for treatment selection than a prognostic marker when it is based on estimated treatment effects in a randomized trial. We organized our discussion around a different theme for each topic. "Fundamentally an extrapolation" refers to the non-statistical considerations and assumptions needed when using surrogate endpoints to evaluate a new treatment. "Decision analysis to the rescue" refers to use the use of decision analysis to evaluate an additional prognostic marker because it is not possible to choose between purely statistical measures of marker performance. "The appeal of simplicity" refers to a straightforward and efficient use of a single randomized trial to evaluate overall treatment effect and treatment effect within subgroups using predictive markers. The simple themes provide a general guideline for evaluation of surrogate endpoints, prognostic markers, and predictive markers. © The Author(s) 2014.

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA)more » models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.« less

Experiences from the testing of a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

Experience gained in testing a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift, and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

The ranking probability approach and its usage in design and analysis of large-scale studies.

PubMed

Kuo, Chia-Ling; Zaykin, Dmitri

2013-01-01

In experiments with many statistical tests there is need to balance type I and type II error rates while taking multiplicity into account. In the traditional approach, the nominal [Formula: see text]-level such as 0.05 is adjusted by the number of tests, [Formula: see text], i.e., as 0.05/[Formula: see text]. Assuming that some proportion of tests represent "true signals", that is, originate from a scenario where the null hypothesis is false, power depends on the number of true signals and the respective distribution of effect sizes. One way to define power is for it to be the probability of making at least one correct rejection at the assumed [Formula: see text]-level. We advocate an alternative way of establishing how "well-powered" a study is. In our approach, useful for studies with multiple tests, the ranking probability [Formula: see text] is controlled, defined as the probability of making at least [Formula: see text] correct rejections while rejecting hypotheses with [Formula: see text] smallest P-values. The two approaches are statistically related. Probability that the smallest P-value is a true signal (i.e., [Formula: see text]) is equal to the power at the level [Formula: see text], to an very good excellent approximation. Ranking probabilities are also related to the false discovery rate and to the Bayesian posterior probability of the null hypothesis. We study properties of our approach when the effect size distribution is replaced for convenience by a single "typical" value taken to be the mean of the underlying distribution. We conclude that its performance is often satisfactory under this simplification; however, substantial imprecision is to be expected when [Formula: see text] is very large and [Formula: see text] is small. Precision is largely restored when three values with the respective abundances are used instead of a single typical effect size value.

Theoretical prediction of Grüneisen parameter for SiO{sub 2}.TiO{sub 2} bulk metallic glasses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Chandra K.; Pandey, Brijesh K., E-mail: bkpmmmec11@gmail.com; Pandey, Anjani K.

2016-05-23

The Grüneisen parameter (γ) is very important to decide the limitations for the prediction of thermoelastic properties of bulk metallic glasses. It can be defined in terms of microscopic and macroscopic parameters of the material in which former is based on vibrational frequencies of atoms in the material while later is closely related to its thermodynamic properties. Different formulation and equation of states are used by the pioneer researchers of this field to predict the true sense of Gruneisen parameter for BMG but for SiO{sub 2}.TiO{sub 2} very few and insufficient information is available till now. In the present workmore » we have tested the validity of two different isothermal EOS viz. Poirrior-Tarantola EOS and Usual-Tait EOS to predict the true value of Gruneisen parameter for SiO{sub 2}.TiO{sub 2} as a function of compression. Using different thermodynamic limitations related to the material constraints and analyzing obtained result it is concluded that the Poirrior-Tarantola EOS gives better numeric values of Grüneisen parameter (γ) for SiO{sub 2}.TiO{sub 2} BMG.« less

Sensitivity and Specificity of Histoplasma Antigen Detection by Enzyme Immunoassay.

PubMed

Cunningham, Lauren; Cook, Audrey; Hanzlicek, Andrew; Harkin, Kenneth; Wheat, Joseph; Goad, Carla; Kirsch, Emily

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of an antigen enzyme immunoassay (EIA) on urine samples for the diagnosis of histoplasmosis in dogs. This retrospective medical records review included canine cases with urine samples submitted for Histoplasma EIA antigen assay between 2007 and 2011 from three veterinary institutions. Cases for which urine samples were submitted for Histoplasma antigen testing were reviewed and compared to the gold standard of finding Histoplasma organisms or an alternative diagnosis on cytology or histopathology. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, and the kappa coefficient and associated confidence interval were calculated for the EIA-based Histoplasma antigen assay. Sixty cases met the inclusion criteria. Seventeen cases were considered true positives based on identification of the organism, and 41 cases were considered true negatives with an alternative definitive diagnosis. Two cases were considered false negatives, and there were no false positives. Sensitivity was 89.47% and the negative predictive value was 95.35%. Specificity and the positive predictive value were both 100%. The kappa coefficient was 0.9207 (95% confidence interval, 0.8131-1). The Histoplasma antigen EIA test demonstrated high specificity and sensitivity for the diagnosis of histoplasmosis in dogs.

A rank test for bivariate time-to-event outcomes when one event is a surrogate

PubMed Central

Shaw, Pamela A.; Fay, Michael P.

2016-01-01

In many clinical settings, improving patient survival is of interest but a practical surrogate, such as time to disease progression, is instead used as a clinical trial’s primary endpoint. A time-to-first endpoint (e.g. death or disease progression) is commonly analyzed but may not be adequate to summarize patient outcomes if a subsequent event contains important additional information. We consider a surrogate outcome very generally, as one correlated with the true endpoint of interest. Settings of interest include those where the surrogate indicates a beneficial outcome so that the usual time-to-first endpoint of death or surrogate event is nonsensical. We present a new two-sample test for bivariate, interval-censored time-to-event data, where one endpoint is a surrogate for the second, less frequently observed endpoint of true interest. This test examines whether patient groups have equal clinical severity. If the true endpoint rarely occurs, the proposed test acts like a weighted logrank test on the surrogate; if it occurs for most individuals, then our test acts like a weighted logrank test on the true endpoint. If the surrogate is a useful statistical surrogate, our test can have better power than tests based on the surrogate that naively handle the true endpoint. In settings where the surrogate is not valid (treatment affects the surrogate but not the true endpoint), our test incorporates the information regarding the lack of treatment effect from the observed true endpoints and hence is expected to have a dampened treatment effect compared to tests based on the surrogate alone. PMID:27059817

How Fuzzy-Trace Theory Predicts True and False Memories for Words, Sentences, and Narratives

PubMed Central

Reyna, Valerie F.; Corbin, Jonathan C.; Weldon, Rebecca B.; Brainerd, Charles J.

2016-01-01

Fuzzy-trace theory posits independent verbatim and gist memory processes, a distinction that has implications for such applied topics as eyewitness testimony. This distinction between precise, literal verbatim memory and meaning-based, intuitive gist accounts for memory paradoxes including dissociations between true and false memory, false memories outlasting true memories, and developmental increases in false memory. We provide an overview of fuzzy-trace theory, and, using mathematical modeling, also present results demonstrating verbatim and gist memory in true and false recognition of narrative sentences and inferences. Results supported fuzzy-trace theory's dual-process view of memory: verbatim memory was relied on to reject meaning-consistent, but unpresented, sentences (via recollection rejection). However, verbatim memory was often not retrieved, and gist memory supported acceptance of these sentences (via similarity judgment and phantom recollection). Thus, mathematical models of words can be extended to explain memory for complex stimuli, such as narratives, the kind of memory interrogated in law. PMID:27042402

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang-Ming; Yang, Shi-Feng; Pan, San-Bo

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization. PMID:28912803

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

PubMed Central

Ioannidis, John P. A.

2005-01-01

Summary There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research. PMID:16060722

Real-time forecasting and predictability of catastrophic failure events: from rock failure to volcanoes and earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, I. G.; Bell, A. F.; Naylor, M.; Atkinson, M.; Filguera, R.; Meredith, P. G.; Brantut, N.

2012-12-01

Accurate prediction of catastrophic brittle failure in rocks and in the Earth presents a significant challenge on theoretical and practical grounds. The governing equations are not known precisely, but are known to produce highly non-linear behavior similar to those of near-critical dynamical systems, with a large and irreducible stochastic component due to material heterogeneity. In a laboratory setting mechanical, hydraulic and rock physical properties are known to change in systematic ways prior to catastrophic failure, often with significant non-Gaussian fluctuations about the mean signal at a given time, for example in the rate of remotely-sensed acoustic emissions. The effectiveness of such signals in real-time forecasting has never been tested before in a controlled laboratory setting, and previous work has often been qualitative in nature, and subject to retrospective selection bias, though it has often been invoked as a basis in forecasting natural hazard events such as volcanoes and earthquakes. Here we describe a collaborative experiment in real-time data assimilation to explore the limits of predictability of rock failure in a best-case scenario. Data are streamed from a remote rock deformation laboratory to a user-friendly portal, where several proposed physical/stochastic models can be analysed in parallel in real time, using a variety of statistical fitting techniques, including least squares regression, maximum likelihood fitting, Markov-chain Monte-Carlo and Bayesian analysis. The results are posted and regularly updated on the web site prior to catastrophic failure, to ensure a true and and verifiable prospective test of forecasting power. Preliminary tests on synthetic data with known non-Gaussian statistics shows how forecasting power is likely to evolve in the live experiments. In general the predicted failure time does converge on the real failure time, illustrating the bias associated with the 'benefit of hindsight' in retrospective analyses. Inference techniques that account explicitly for non-Gaussian statistics significantly reduce the bias, and increase the reliability and accuracy, of the forecast failure time in prospective mode.

Beyond Einstein: From the Big Bang to Black Holes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

How did the Universe begin? Does time have a beginning and an end? Does space have edges? The questions are clear and simple. They are as old as human curiosity. But the answers have always seemed beyond the reach of science. Until now. In their attempts to understand how space, time, and matter are connected, Einstein and his successors made three predictions. First, space is expanding from a Big Bang; second, space and time can tie themselves into contorted knots called black holes where time actually comes to a halt; third, space itself contains some kind of energy that is pull- ing the Universe apart. Each of these three predictions seemed so fantastic when it was made that everyone, including Einstein himself, regarded them as unlikely. Incredibly, all three have turned out to be true. Yet Einstein's legacy is one of deep mystery, because his theories are silent on three questions raised by his fantastic predictions: (1) What powered the Big Bang? (2) What happens to space, time, and matter at the edge of a black hole? (3) What is the mysterious dark energy pulling the Universe apart? The answers to these questions-which lie at the crux of where our current theories fail us-will lead to a profound, new understanding of the nature of time and space. To find answers, however, we must venture beyond Einstein. The answers require new theories, such as the inflationary Universe and new insights in high-energy particle theory. Like Einstein s theories, these make fantastic predictions that seem hard to believe: unseen dimensions and entire universes beyond our own. We must find facts to confront and guide these new theories. Powerful new technologies now make this possible. And NASA and its partners are developing an armada of space-based observatories to chart the path to discovery. Here is where the Beyond Einstein story begins. By exploring the three questions that are Einstein s legacy, we begin the next revolution in understanding our Universe. We plot our way forward using clues from observations and from new ideas connecting the worlds of the very small and the very large, from the atom out through the deepest reaches of the cosmos.

Bayesian Revision of Residual Detection Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2013-01-01

This paper addresses some issues with quality assessment and quality assurance in response surface modeling experiments executed in wind tunnels. The role of data volume on quality assurance for response surface models is reviewed. Specific wind tunnel response surface modeling experiments are considered for which apparent discrepancies exist between fit quality expectations based on implemented quality assurance tactics, and the actual fit quality achieved in those experiments. These discrepancies are resolved by using Bayesian inference to account for certain imperfections in the assessment methodology. Estimates of the fraction of out-of-tolerance model predictions based on traditional frequentist methods are revised to account for uncertainty in the residual assessment process. The number of sites in the design space for which residuals are out of tolerance is seen to exceed the number of sites where the model actually fails to fit the data. A method is presented to estimate how much of the design space in inadequately modeled by low-order polynomial approximations to the true but unknown underlying response function.

Thermal Conductivity and Thermopower near the 2D Metal-Insulator transition, Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarachik, Myriam P.

2015-02-20

STUDIES OF STRONGLY-INTERACTING 2D ELECTRON SYSTEMS – There is a great deal of current interest in the properties of systems in which the interaction between electrons (their potential energy) is large compared to their kinetic energy. We have investigated an apparent, unexpected metal-insulator transition inferred from the behavior of the temperature-dependence of the resistivity; moreover, detailed analysis of the behavior of the magnetoresistance suggests that the electrons’ effective mass diverges, supporting this scenario. Whether this is a true phase transition or crossover behavior has been strenuously debated over the past 20 years. Our measurements have now shown that the thermoelectricmore » power of these 2D materials diverges at a finite density, providing clear evidence that this is, in fact, a phase transition to a new low-density phase which may be a precursor or a direct transition to the long sought-after electronic crystal predicted by Eugene Wigner in 1934.« less

PR-Index: Using the h-Index and PageRank for Determining True Impact.

PubMed

Gao, Chao; Wang, Zhen; Li, Xianghua; Zhang, Zili; Zeng, Wei

2016-01-01

Several technical indicators have been proposed to assess the impact of authors and institutions. Here, we combine the h-index and the PageRank algorithm to do away with some of the individual limitations of these two indices. Most importantly, we aim to take into account value differences between citations-evaluating the citation sources by defining the h-index using the PageRank score rather than with citations. The resulting PR-index is then constructed by evaluating source popularity as well as the source publication authority. Extensive tests on available collections data (i.e., Microsoft Academic Search and benchmarks on the SIGKDD innovation award) show that the PR-index provides a more balanced impact measure than many existing indices. Due to its simplicity and similarity to the popular h-index, the PR-index may thus become a welcome addition to the technical indices already in use. Moreover, growth dynamics prior to the SIGKDD innovation award indicate that the PR-index might have notable predictive power.

PR-Index: Using the h-Index and PageRank for Determining True Impact

PubMed Central

Gao, Chao; Wang, Zhen; Li, Xianghua; Zhang, Zili; Zeng, Wei

2016-01-01

Several technical indicators have been proposed to assess the impact of authors and institutions. Here, we combine the h-index and the PageRank algorithm to do away with some of the individual limitations of these two indices. Most importantly, we aim to take into account value differences between citations-evaluating the citation sources by defining the h-index using the PageRank score rather than with citations. The resulting PR-index is then constructed by evaluating source popularity as well as the source publication authority. Extensive tests on available collections data (i.e., Microsoft Academic Search and benchmarks on the SIGKDD innovation award) show that the PR-index provides a more balanced impact measure than many existing indices. Due to its simplicity and similarity to the popular h-index, the PR-index may thus become a welcome addition to the technical indices already in use. Moreover, growth dynamics prior to the SIGKDD innovation award indicate that the PR-index might have notable predictive power. PMID:27627767

Mechanical energy flow models of rods and beams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wohlever, J. C.; Bernhard, R. J.

1992-01-01

It has been proposed that the flow of mechanical energy through a structural/acoustic system may be modeled in a manner similar to that of flow of thermal energy/in a heat conduction problem. If this hypothesis is true, it would result in relatively efficient numerical models of structure-borne energy in large built-up structures. Fewer parameters are required to approximate the energy solution than are required to model the characteristic wave behavior of structural vibration by using traditional displacement formulations. The energy flow hypothesis is tested in this investigation for both longitudinal vibration in rods and transverse flexural vibrations of beams. The rod is shown to behave approximately according to the thermal energy flow analogy. However, the beam solutions behave significantly differently than predicted by the thermal analogy unless locally-space-averaged energy and power are considered. Several techniques for coupling dissimilar rods and beams are also discussed. Illustrations of the solution accuracy of the methods are included.

Selenide isotope generator for the Galileo mission. SIG/Galileo contract compliance power prediction technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammel, T.E.; Srinivas, V.

1978-11-01

This initial definition of the power degradation prediction technique outlines a model for predicting SIG/Galileo mean EOM power using component test data and data from a module power degradation demonstration test program. (LCL)

18 CFR 801.9 - Watershed management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Watershed management... GENERAL POLICIES § 801.9 Watershed management. (a) The character, extent, and quality of water resources... management including soil and water conservation measures, land restoration and rehabilitation, erosion...

14 CFR 1201.200 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 5 2011-01-01 2010-01-01 true General. 1201.200 Section 1201.200... assignments; maintains and upgrades the design of ground and flight systems throughout the operational period... computational and experimental fluid dynamics and aerodynamics; fluid and thermal physics; rotorcraft, powered...

The Teacher Talent Trove

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinn, Terrence

2003-01-01

Teacher leadership represents a powerful approach to assert the true professionalism that educators have long been seeking. Opportunities abound for teachers to contribute to school reform by demonstrating their leadership skills. This article considers strategies to rebuild the portrait of teachers and thereby encourage strong professional…

40 CFR 108.7 - Hearing before Administrator.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Hearing before Administrator. 108.7 Section 108.7 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS... exercise any powers of an Administrative Law Judge with respect to hearings under this part. ...

A perfect correlate does not a surrogate make

PubMed Central

Baker, Stuart G; Kramer, Barnett S

2003-01-01

Background There is common belief among some medical researchers that if a potential surrogate endpoint is highly correlated with a true endpoint, then a positive (or negative) difference in potential surrogate endpoints between randomization groups would imply a positive (or negative) difference in unobserved true endpoints between randomization groups. We investigate this belief when the potential surrogate and unobserved true endpoints are perfectly correlated within each randomization group. Methods We use a graphical approach. The vertical axis is the unobserved true endpoint and the horizontal axis is the potential surrogate endpoint. Perfect correlation within each randomization group implies that, for each randomization group, potential surrogate and true endpoints are related by a straight line. In this scenario the investigator does not know the slopes or intercepts. We consider a plausible example where the slope of the line is higher for the experimental group than for the control group. Results In our example with unknown lines, a decrease in mean potential surrogate endpoints from control to experimental groups corresponds to an increase in mean true endpoint from control to experimental groups. Thus the potential surrogate endpoints give the wrong inference. Similar results hold for binary potential surrogate and true outcomes (although the notion of correlation does not apply). The potential surrogate endpointwould give the correct inference if either (i) the unknown lines for the two group coincided, which means that the distribution of true endpoint conditional on potential surrogate endpoint does not depend on treatment group, which is called the Prentice Criterion or (ii) if one could accurately predict the lines based on data from prior studies. Conclusion Perfect correlation between potential surrogate and unobserved true outcomes within randomized groups does not guarantee correct inference based on a potential surrogate endpoint. Even in early phase trials, investigators should not base conclusions on potential surrogate endpoints in which the only validation is high correlation with the true endpoint within a group. PMID:12962545

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-01-01

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes. PMID:29453930

Simulate what is measured: next steps towards predictive simulations (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussmann, Michael; Kluge, Thomas; Debus, Alexander; Hübl, Axel; Garten, Marco; Zacharias, Malte; Vorberger, Jan; Pausch, Richard; Widera, René; Schramm, Ulrich; Cowan, Thomas E.; Irman, Arie; Zeil, Karl; Kraus, Dominik

2017-05-01

Simulations of laser matter interaction at extreme intensities that have predictive power are nowadays in reach when considering codes that make optimum use of high performance compute architectures. Nevertheless, this is mostly true for very specific settings where model parameters are very well known from experiment and the underlying plasma dynamics is governed by Maxwell's equations solely. When including atomic effects, prepulse influences, radiation reaction and other physical phenomena things look different. Not only is it harder to evaluate the sensitivity of the simulation result on the variation of the various model parameters but numerical models are less well tested and their combination can lead to subtle side effects that influence the simulation outcome. We propose to make optimum use of future compute hardware to compute statistical and systematic errors rather than just find the mots optimum set of parameters fitting an experiment. This requires to include experimental uncertainties which is a challenge to current state of the art techniques. Moreover, it demands better comparison to experiments as inclusion of simulating the diagnostic's response becomes important. We strongly advocate the use of open standards for finding interoperability between codes for comparison studies, building complete tool chains for simulating laser matter experiments from start to end.

Optimal gains for a single polar orbiting satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banfield, Don; Ingersoll, A. P.; Keppenne, C. L.

1993-01-01

Gains are the spatial weighting of an observation in its neighborhood versus the local values of a model prediction. They are the key to data assimilation, as they are the direct measure of how the data are used to guide the model. As derived in the broad context of data assimilation by Kalman and in the context of meteorology, for example, by Rutherford, the optimal gains are functions of the prediction error covariances between the observation and analysis points. Kalman introduced a very powerful technique that allows one to calculate these optimal gains at the time of each observation. Unfortunately, this technique is both computationally expensive and often numerically unstable for dynamical systems of the magnitude of meteorological models, and thus is unsuited for use in PMIRR data assimilation. However, the optimal gains as calculated by a Kalman filter do reach a steady state for regular observing patterns like that of a satellite. In this steady state, the gains are constants in time, and thus could conceivably be computed off-line. These steady-state Kalman gains (i.e., Wiener gains) would yield optimal performance without the computational burden of true Kalman filtering. We proposed to use this type of constant-in-time Wiener gain for the assimilation of data from PMIRR and Mars Observer.

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting.

PubMed

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-02-17

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes.

Estimation of nonpaternity in the Mexican population of Nuevo Leon: a validation study with blood group markers.

PubMed

Cerda-Flores, R M; Barton, S A; Marty-Gonzalez, L F; Rivas, F; Chakraborty, R

1999-07-01

A method for estimating the general rate of nonpaternity in a population was validated using phenotype data on seven blood groups (A1A2BO, MNSs, Rh, Duffy, Lutheran, Kidd, and P) on 396 mother, child, and legal father trios from Nuevo León, Mexico. In all, 32 legal fathers were excluded as the possible father based on genetic exclusions at one or more loci (combined average exclusion probability of 0.694 for specific mother-child phenotype pairs). The maximum likelihood estimate of the general nonpaternity rate in the population was 0.118 +/- 0.020. The nonpaternity rates in Nuevo León were also seen to be inversely related with the socioeconomic status of the families, i.e., the highest in the low and the lowest in the high socioeconomic class. We further argue that with the moderately low (69.4%) power of exclusion for these seven blood group systems, the traditional critical values of paternity index (PI > or = 19) were not good indicators of true paternity, since a considerable fraction (307/364) of nonexcluded legal fathers had a paternity index below 19 based on the seven markers. Implications of these results in the context of genetic-epidemiological studies as well as for detection of true fathers for child-support adjudications are discussed, implying the need to employ a battery of genetic markers (possibly DNA-based tests) that yield a higher power of exclusion. We conclude that even though DNA markers are more informative, the probabilistic approach developed here would still be needed to estimate the true rate of nonpaternity in a population or to evaluate the precision of detecting true fathers.

Too True to be Bad

PubMed Central

Etz, Alexander J.

2017-01-01

Psychology journals rarely publish nonsignificant results. At the same time, it is often very unlikely (or “too good to be true”) that a set of studies yields exclusively significant results. Here, we use likelihood ratios to explain when sets of studies that contain a mix of significant and nonsignificant results are likely to be true or “too true to be bad.” As we show, mixed results are not only likely to be observed in lines of research but also, when observed, often provide evidence for the alternative hypothesis, given reasonable levels of statistical power and an adequately controlled low Type 1 error rate. Researchers should feel comfortable submitting such lines of research with an internal meta-analysis for publication. A better understanding of probabilities, accompanied by more realistic expectations of what real sets of studies look like, might be an important step in mitigating publication bias in the scientific literature. PMID:29276574

The recombination mechanisms leading to amplified spontaneous emission at the true-green wavelength in CH3NH3PbBr3 perovskites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priante, D.; Dursun, I.; Alias, M. S.; Shi, D.; Melnikov, V. A.; Ng, T. K.; Mohammed, O. F.; Bakr, O. M.; Ooi, B. S.

2015-02-01

We investigated the mechanisms of radiative recombination in a CH3NH3PbBr3 hybrid perovskite material using low-temperature, power-dependent (77 K), and temperature-dependent photoluminescence (PL) measurements. Two bound-excitonic radiative transitions related to grain size inhomogeneity were identified. Both transitions led to PL spectra broadening as a result of concurrent blue and red shifts of these excitonic peaks. The red-shifted bound-excitonic peak dominated at high PL excitation led to a true-green wavelength of 553 nm for CH3NH3PbBr3 powders that are encapsulated in polydimethylsiloxane. Amplified spontaneous emission was eventually achieved for an excitation threshold energy of approximately 350 μJ/cm2. Our results provide a platform for potential extension towards a true-green light-emitting device for solid-state lighting and display applications.

The True- and Eccentric-Anomaly Parameterizations of the Perturbed Kepler Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergely, László Á.; Perjés, Zoltán I.; Vasúth, Mátyás

2000-01-01

The true- and eccentric-anomaly parameterizations of the Kepler motion are generalized to quasi-periodic orbits, by considering perturbations of the radial part of the kinetic energy in the form of a series of negative powers of the orbital radius. A toolbox of methods for averaging observables as functions of the energy E and angular momentum L is developed. A broad range of systems governed by the generic Brumberg force, as well as recent applications in the theory of gravitational radiation, involve integrals of these functions over a period of motion. These integrals are evaluated by using the residue theorem. In the course of this work, two important questions emerge: (1) When do the true- and eccentric-anomaly parameters exist? (2) Under what circumstances, and why, are the poles in the origin? The purpose of this paper is to find the answer to these queries.

Ultrasound-mediated Optical Imaging and Focusing in Scattering Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yuta

Because of its non-ionizing and molecular sensing nature, light has been an attractive tool in biomedicine. Scanning an optical focus allows not only high-resolution imaging but also manipulation and therapy. However, due to multiple photon scattering events, conventional optical focusing using an ordinary lens is limited to shallow depths of one transport mean free path (lt'), which corresponds to approximately 1 mm in human tissue. To overcome this limitation, ultrasonic modulation (or encoding ) of diffuse light inside scattering media has enabled us to develop both deep-tissue optical imaging and focusing techniques, namely, ultrasound-modulated optical tomography (UOT) and time-reversed ultrasonically encoded (TRUE) optical focusing. While UOT measures the power of the encoded light to obtain an image, TRUE focusing generates a time-reversed (or phase-conjugated) copy of the encoded light, using a phase-conjugate mirror to focus light inside scattering media beyond 1 lt'. However, despite extensive progress in both UOT and TRUE focusing, the low signal-to-noise ratio in encoded-light detection remains a challenge to meeting both the speed and depth requirements for in vivo applications. This dissertation describes technological advancements of both UOT and TRUE focusing, in terms of their signal detection sensitivities, operational depths, and operational speeds. The first part of this dissertation describes sensitivity improvements of encoded-light detection in UOT, achieved by using a large area (˜5 cm x 5 cm) photorefractive polymer. The photorefractive polymer allowed us to improve the detection etendue by more than 10 times that of previous detection schemes. It has enabled us to resolve absorbing objects embedded inside diffused media thicker than 80 lt', using moderate light power and short ultrasound pulses. The second part of this dissertation describes energy enhancement and fluorescent excitation using TRUE focusing in turbid media, using photorefractive materials as the phase-conjugate mirrors. By using a large-area photorefractive polymer as the phase-conjugate mirror, we boosted the focused optical energy by ~40 times over the output of a previously used photorefractive Bi 12SiO20 crystal. Furthermore, using both a photorefractive polymer and a Bi12SiO20 crystal as the phase-conjugate mirrors, we show direct visualization and dynamic control of TRUE focus, and demonstrate fluorescence imaging in a thick turbid medium. The last part of this dissertation describes improvements in the scanning speed of a TRUE focus, using digital phase-conjugate mirrors in both transmission and reflection modes. By employing a multiplex recording of ultrasonically encoded wavefronts in transmission mode, we have accelerated the generation of multiple TRUE foci, using frequency sweeping of both ultrasound and light. With this technique, we obtained a 2-D image of a fluorescent target centered inside a turbid sample having a thickness of 2.4 lt'. Also, by gradually moving the focal position in reflection mode, we show that the TRUE focal intensity is improved, and can be continuously scanned to image fluorescent targets in a shorter time.

Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression. [Monte Carlo studies using population models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holms, A. G.

1974-01-01

Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

Relationship of individual scapular anatomy and degenerative rotator cuff tears.

PubMed

Moor, Beat K; Wieser, Karl; Slankamenac, Ksenija; Gerber, Christian; Bouaicha, Samy

2014-04-01

The etiology of rotator cuff disease is age related, as documented by prevalence data. Despite conflicting results, growing evidence suggests that distinct scapular morphologies may accelerate the underlying degenerative process. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the predictive power of 5 commonly used radiologic parameters of scapular morphology to discriminate between patients with intact rotator cuff tendons and those with torn rotator cuff tendons. A pre hoc power analysis was performed to determine the sample size. Two independent readers measured the acromion index, lateral acromion angle, and critical shoulder angle on standardized anteroposterior radiographs. In addition, the acromial morphology according to Bigliani and the acromial slope were determined on true outlet views. Measurements were performed in 51 consecutive patients with documented degenerative rotator cuff tears and in an age- and sex-matched control group of 51 patients with intact rotator cuff tendons. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed to determine cutoff values and to assess the sensitivity and specificity of each parameter. Patients with degenerative rotator cuff tears demonstrated significantly higher acromion indices, smaller lateral acromion angles, and larger critical shoulder angles than patients with intact rotator cuffs. However, no difference was found between the acromial morphology according to Bigliani and the acromial slope. With an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.855 and an odds ratio of 10.8, the critical shoulder angle represented the strongest predictor for the presence of a rotator cuff tear. The acromion index, lateral acromion angle, and critical shoulder angle accurately predict the presence of degenerative rotator cuff tears. Copyright © 2014 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Personalizing oncology treatments by predicting drug efficacy, side-effects, and improved therapy: mathematics, statistics, and their integration.

PubMed

Agur, Zvia; Elishmereni, Moran; Kheifetz, Yuri

2014-01-01

Despite its great promise, personalized oncology still faces many hurdles, and it is increasingly clear that targeted drugs and molecular biomarkers alone yield only modest clinical benefit. One reason is the complex relationships between biomarkers and the patient's response to drugs, obscuring the true weight of the biomarkers in the overall patient's response. This complexity can be disentangled by computational models that integrate the effects of personal biomarkers into a simulator of drug-patient dynamic interactions, for predicting the clinical outcomes. Several computational tools have been developed for personalized oncology, notably evidence-based tools for simulating pharmacokinetics, Bayesian-estimated tools for predicting survival, etc. We describe representative statistical and mathematical tools, and discuss their merits, shortcomings and preliminary clinical validation attesting to their potential. Yet, the individualization power of mathematical models alone, or statistical models alone, is limited. More accurate and versatile personalization tools can be constructed by a new application of the statistical/mathematical nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NLMEM) approach, which until recently has been used only in drug development. Using these advanced tools, clinical data from patient populations can be integrated with mechanistic models of disease and physiology, for generating personal mathematical models. Upon a more substantial validation in the clinic, this approach will hopefully be applied in personalized clinical trials, P-trials, hence aiding the establishment of personalized medicine within the main stream of clinical oncology. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Towards a quantitative description of tunneling conductance of superconductors: Application to LiFeAs

DOE PAGES

Kreisel, A.; Nelson, R.; Berlijn, T.; ...

2016-12-27

Since the discovery of iron-based superconductors, a number of theories have been put forward to explain the qualitative origin of pairing, but there have been few attempts to make quantitative, material-specific comparisons to experimental results. The spin-fluctuation theory of electronic pairing, based on first-principles electronic structure calculations, makes predictions for the superconducting gap. Within the same framework, the surface wave functions may also be calculated, allowing, e.g., for detailed comparisons between theoretical results and measured scanning tunneling topographs and spectra. We present such a comparison between theory and experiment on the Fe-based superconductor LiFeAs. Our results for the homogeneous surfacemore » as well as impurity states are presented as a benchmark test of the theory. For the homogeneous system, we argue that the maxima of topographic image intensity may be located at positions above either the As or Li atoms, depending on tip height and the setpoint current of the measurement. We further report the experimental observation of transitions between As- and Li-registered lattices as functions of both tip height and setpoint bias, in agreement with this prediction. Next, we give a detailed comparison between the simulated scanning tunneling microscopy images of transition-metal defects with experiment. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the current framework to obtain a theory with true predictive power for scanning tunneling microscopy in Fe-based systems.« less

Towards a quantitative description of tunneling conductance of superconductors: Application to LiFeAs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreisel, A.; Nelson, R.; Berlijn, T.

Since the discovery of iron-based superconductors, a number of theories have been put forward to explain the qualitative origin of pairing, but there have been few attempts to make quantitative, material-specific comparisons to experimental results. The spin-fluctuation theory of electronic pairing, based on first-principles electronic structure calculations, makes predictions for the superconducting gap. Within the same framework, the surface wave functions may also be calculated, allowing, e.g., for detailed comparisons between theoretical results and measured scanning tunneling topographs and spectra. We present such a comparison between theory and experiment on the Fe-based superconductor LiFeAs. Our results for the homogeneous surfacemore » as well as impurity states are presented as a benchmark test of the theory. For the homogeneous system, we argue that the maxima of topographic image intensity may be located at positions above either the As or Li atoms, depending on tip height and the setpoint current of the measurement. We further report the experimental observation of transitions between As- and Li-registered lattices as functions of both tip height and setpoint bias, in agreement with this prediction. Next, we give a detailed comparison between the simulated scanning tunneling microscopy images of transition-metal defects with experiment. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the current framework to obtain a theory with true predictive power for scanning tunneling microscopy in Fe-based systems.« less

Venezuelas Pursuit of Caribbean Basin Interests: Implications for United States National Security.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-01-01

as one of three regional powers in the Caribbean Basin, the others being Cuba and Mexico . This study analyzes Venezuela’s political, economic... Mexico , Venezuela has become one of three regional powers in the Basin. Unlike the other two actors, however, Venezuela pursues policies that largely...about each of the several subregions of the Caribb ’an Basin almost autonomously. This is especially true concerning Mexico , which only from t ,e

Robust logistic regression to narrow down the winner's curse for rare and recessive susceptibility variants.

PubMed

Kesselmeier, Miriam; Lorenzo Bermejo, Justo

2017-11-01

Logistic regression is the most common technique used for genetic case-control association studies. A disadvantage of standard maximum likelihood estimators of the genotype relative risk (GRR) is their strong dependence on outlier subjects, for example, patients diagnosed at unusually young age. Robust methods are available to constrain outlier influence, but they are scarcely used in genetic studies. This article provides a non-intimidating introduction to robust logistic regression, and investigates its benefits and limitations in genetic association studies. We applied the bounded Huber and extended the R package 'robustbase' with the re-descending Hampel functions to down-weight outlier influence. Computer simulations were carried out to assess the type I error rate, mean squared error (MSE) and statistical power according to major characteristics of the genetic study and investigated markers. Simulations were complemented with the analysis of real data. Both standard and robust estimation controlled type I error rates. Standard logistic regression showed the highest power but standard GRR estimates also showed the largest bias and MSE, in particular for associated rare and recessive variants. For illustration, a recessive variant with a true GRR=6.32 and a minor allele frequency=0.05 investigated in a 1000 case/1000 control study by standard logistic regression resulted in power=0.60 and MSE=16.5. The corresponding figures for Huber-based estimation were power=0.51 and MSE=0.53. Overall, Hampel- and Huber-based GRR estimates did not differ much. Robust logistic regression may represent a valuable alternative to standard maximum likelihood estimation when the focus lies on risk prediction rather than identification of susceptibility variants. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimating true human and animal host source contribution in quantitative microbial source tracking using the Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Silkie, Sarah S; Nelson, Kara L; Wuertz, Stefan

2010-09-01

Cultivation- and library-independent, quantitative PCR-based methods have become the method of choice in microbial source tracking. However, these qPCR assays are not 100% specific and sensitive for the target sequence in their respective hosts' genome. The factors that can lead to false positive and false negative information in qPCR results are well defined. It is highly desirable to have a way of removing such false information to estimate the true concentration of host-specific genetic markers and help guide the interpretation of environmental monitoring studies. Here we propose a statistical model based on the Law of Total Probability to predict the true concentration of these markers. The distributions of the probabilities of obtaining false information are estimated from representative fecal samples of known origin. Measurement error is derived from the sample precision error of replicated qPCR reactions. Then, the Monte Carlo method is applied to sample from these distributions of probabilities and measurement error. The set of equations given by the Law of Total Probability allows one to calculate the distribution of true concentrations, from which their expected value, confidence interval and other statistical characteristics can be easily evaluated. The output distributions of predicted true concentrations can then be used as input to watershed-wide total maximum daily load determinations, quantitative microbial risk assessment and other environmental models. This model was validated by both statistical simulations and real world samples. It was able to correct the intrinsic false information associated with qPCR assays and output the distribution of true concentrations of Bacteroidales for each animal host group. Model performance was strongly affected by the precision error. It could perform reliably and precisely when the standard deviation of the precision error was small (≤ 0.1). Further improvement on the precision of sample processing and qPCR reaction would greatly improve the performance of the model. This methodology, built upon Bacteroidales assays, is readily transferable to any other microbial source indicator where a universal assay for fecal sources of that indicator exists. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance characteristics of broth-only cultures after revision total joint arthroplasty.

PubMed

Smith, Eric B; Cai, Jenny; Wynne, Rachael; Maltenfort, Mitchell; Good, Robert P

2014-11-01

Surgeons frequently obtain intraoperative cultures at the time of revision total joint arthroplasty. The use of broth or liquid medium before applying the sample to the agar medium may be associated with contamination and false-positive cultures; however, the degree to which this is the case is not known. We (1) calculated the performance characteristics of broth-only cultures (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value) and (2) characterized the organisms identified in broth to determine whether a specific organism showed increased proclivity for true-positive periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). A single-institution retrospective chart review was performed on 257 revision total joint arthroplasties from 2009 through 2010. One hundred ninety (74%) had cultures for review. All culture results, as well as treatment, if any, were documented and patients were followed for a minimum of 1 year for evidence of PJI. Cultures were measured as either positive from the broth only or broth negative. The true diagnosis of infection was determined by the Musculoskeletal Infection Society criteria during the preoperative workup or postoperatively at 1 year for purposes of calculating the performance characteristics of the broth-only culture. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 19%, 88%, 13%, and 92%, respectively. The most common organism identified was coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (16 of 24 cases, 67%). Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus was present in all three true-positive cases; however, it was also found in 13 of the false-positive cases. The broth-only positive cultures showed poor sensitivity and positive predictive value but good specificity and negative predictive value. The good specificity indicates that it can help to rule in the presence of PJI; however, the poor sensitivity makes broth-only culture an unreliable screening test. We recommend that broth-only culture results be carefully scrutinized and decisions on the diagnosis and treatment of infection should be based specifically on the Musculoskeletal Infection Society criteria. Level IV, diagnostic study. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Predictive uncertainty analysis of a saltwater intrusion model using null-space Monte Carlo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herckenrath, Daan; Langevin, Christian D.; Doherty, John

2011-01-01

Because of the extensive computational burden and perhaps a lack of awareness of existing methods, rigorous uncertainty analyses are rarely conducted for variable-density flow and transport models. For this reason, a recently developed null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method for quantifying prediction uncertainty was tested for a synthetic saltwater intrusion model patterned after the Henry problem. Saltwater intrusion caused by a reduction in fresh groundwater discharge was simulated for 1000 randomly generated hydraulic conductivity distributions, representing a mildly heterogeneous aquifer. From these 1000 simulations, the hydraulic conductivity distribution giving rise to the most extreme case of saltwater intrusion was selected and was assumed to represent the "true" system. Head and salinity values from this true model were then extracted and used as observations for subsequent model calibration. Random noise was added to the observations to approximate realistic field conditions. The NSMC method was used to calculate 1000 calibration-constrained parameter fields. If the dimensionality of the solution space was set appropriately, the estimated uncertainty range from the NSMC analysis encompassed the truth. Several variants of the method were implemented to investigate their effect on the efficiency of the NSMC method. Reducing the dimensionality of the null-space for the processing of the random parameter sets did not result in any significant gains in efficiency and compromised the ability of the NSMC method to encompass the true prediction value. The addition of intrapilot point heterogeneity to the NSMC process was also tested. According to a variogram comparison, this provided the same scale of heterogeneity that was used to generate the truth. However, incorporation of intrapilot point variability did not make a noticeable difference to the uncertainty of the prediction. With this higher level of heterogeneity, however, the computational burden of generating calibration-constrained parameter fields approximately doubled. Predictive uncertainty variance computed through the NSMC method was compared with that computed through linear analysis. The results were in good agreement, with the NSMC method estimate showing a slightly smaller range of prediction uncertainty than was calculated by the linear method. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Power load prediction based on GM (1,1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Di

2017-05-01

Currently, Chinese power load prediction is highly focused; the paper deeply studies grey prediction and applies it to Chinese electricity consumption during the recent 14 years; through after-test test, it obtains grey prediction which has good adaptability to medium and long-term power load.

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

1985-01-01

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Broadband MAS NMR spectroscopy in the low-power limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Kevin J.; Pell, Andrew J.; Wegner, Sebastian; Grey, Clare P.; Pintacuda, Guido

2018-04-01

We investigate the performance of broadband adiabatic inversion pulses in the high-power (short high-powered adiabatic pulse, SHAP) and low-power (single-sideband-selective adiabatic pulse, S3AP) RF regimes on a spin system subjected to large anisotropic interactions. We show by combined experimental results and spin dynamics simulations that when the magic-angle spinning rate exceeds 100 kHz S3APs begin outperforming SHAPs. This is especially true for low-gamma nuclei, such as 6 Li in paramagnetic Li-ion battery materials. Finally, we show how S3APs can be improved by combining multiple waveforms sweeping over multiple sidebands simultaneously, in order to produce inverted sideband profiles free from intensity biasing.

A note on power and sample size calculations for the Kruskal-Wallis test for ordered categorical data.

PubMed

Fan, Chunpeng; Zhang, Donghui

2012-01-01

Although the Kruskal-Wallis test has been widely used to analyze ordered categorical data, power and sample size methods for this test have been investigated to a much lesser extent when the underlying multinomial distributions are unknown. This article generalizes the power and sample size procedures proposed by Fan et al. ( 2011 ) for continuous data to ordered categorical data, when estimates from a pilot study are used in the place of knowledge of the true underlying distribution. Simulations show that the proposed power and sample size formulas perform well. A myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) induced experimental autoimmunce encephalomyelitis (EAE) mouse study is used to demonstrate the application of the methods.

18 CFR 705.6 - Compliance information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Compliance information... Compliance information. (a) Cooperation and assistance. The responsible agency official shall, to the fullest... information, as the responsible agency official may determine to be necessary to enable him to ascertain...

18 CFR 1301.8 - Business information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Business information... Freedom of Information Act § 1301.8 Business information. (a) In general. Business information obtained by... purposes of this section: (1) Business information means commercial or financial information obtained by...

18 CFR 706.301 - Use of Government employment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Use of Government... EMPLOYEE RESPONSIBILITIES AND CONDUCT Conduct and Responsibilities of Special Government Employees § 706.301 Use of Government employment. A special Government employee shall not use his Government...

18 CFR 708.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Definitions. 708.1... BASIN COMMISSION: PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM MASTER PLAN § 708.1 Definitions... commercial navigation channels on the Mississippi River main stem north of Cairo, Illinois; the Minnesota...

25 CFR 175.24 - Utility responsibilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Utility responsibilities. 175.24 Section 175.24 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND AND WATER INDIAN ELECTRIC POWER UTILITIES... accordance with accepted industry practice; (c) Exercise reasonable care in protecting customer-owned...

18 CFR 1316.8 - Employee protected activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Employee protected... Conditions and Certifications § 1316.8 Employee protected activities. When so indicated in TVA contract... Protected Activities (Applicable to contracts for goods or services delivered to nuclear facilities or...

Builders Challenge High Performance Builder Spotlight - Artistic Homes, Albuquerque, NM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2009-01-01

Building America Builders Challenge fact sheet on Artistic Homes of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Describes the first true zero E-scale home in a hot-dry climate with ducts inside, R-50 attic insulation, roof-mounted photovoltaic power system, and solar thermal water heating.