The Difference Calculus and The NEgative Binomial Distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, Kimiko o; Shenton, LR

2007-01-01

In a previous paper we state the dominant term in the third central moment of the maximum likelihood estimator k of the parameter k in the negative binomial probability function where the probability generating function is (p + 1 - pt){sup -k}. A partial sum of the series {Sigma}1/(k + x){sup 3} is involved, where x is a negative binomial random variate. In expectation this sum can only be found numerically using the computer. Here we give a simple definite integral in (0,1) for the generalized case. This means that now we do have a valid expression for {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(k)more » and {radical}{beta}{sub 11}(p). In addition we use the finite difference operator {Delta}, and E = 1 + {Delta} to set up formulas for low order moments. Other examples of the operators are quoted relating to the orthogonal set of polynomials associated with the negative binomial probability function used as a weight function.« less

[Application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression in the research of risk factors for injury frequency].

PubMed

Cao, Qingqing; Wu, Zhenqiang; Sun, Ying; Wang, Tiezhu; Han, Tengwei; Gu, Chaomei; Sun, Yehuan

2011-11-01

To Eexplore the application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression analysis in analyzing the influential factors for injury frequency and the risk factors leading to the increase of injury frequency. 2917 primary and secondary school students were selected from Hefei by cluster random sampling method and surveyed by questionnaire. The data on the count event-based injuries used to fitted modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model. The risk factors incurring the increase of unintentional injury frequency for juvenile students was explored, so as to probe the efficiency of these two models in studying the influential factors for injury frequency. The Poisson model existed over-dispersion (P < 0.0001) based on testing by the Lagrangemultiplier. Therefore, the over-dispersion dispersed data using a modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model, was fitted better. respectively. Both showed that male gender, younger age, father working outside of the hometown, the level of the guardian being above junior high school and smoking might be the results of higher injury frequencies. On a tendency of clustered frequency data on injury event, both the modified Poisson regression analysis and negative binomial regression analysis can be used. However, based on our data, the modified Poisson regression fitted better and this model could give a more accurate interpretation of relevant factors affecting the frequency of injury.

Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.

PubMed

Cai, Qing; Lee, Jaeyoung; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2016-08-01

This study attempts to explore the viability of dual-state models (i.e., zero-inflated and hurdle models) for traffic analysis zones (TAZs) based pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency analysis. Additionally, spatial spillover effects are explored in the models by employing exogenous variables from neighboring zones. The dual-state models such as zero-inflated negative binomial and hurdle negative binomial models (with and without spatial effects) are compared with the conventional single-state model (i.e., negative binomial). The model comparison for pedestrian and bicycle crashes revealed that the models that considered observed spatial effects perform better than the models that did not consider the observed spatial effects. Across the models with spatial spillover effects, the dual-state models especially zero-inflated negative binomial model offered better performance compared to single-state models. Moreover, the model results clearly highlighted the importance of various traffic, roadway, and sociodemographic characteristics of the TAZ as well as neighboring TAZs on pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of different statistical methods analyzing hypoglycemia data using bootstrap simulations.

PubMed

Jiang, Honghua; Ni, Xiao; Huster, William; Heilmann, Cory

2015-01-01

Hypoglycemia has long been recognized as a major barrier to achieving normoglycemia with intensive diabetic therapies. It is a common safety concern for the diabetes patients. Therefore, it is important to apply appropriate statistical methods when analyzing hypoglycemia data. Here, we carried out bootstrap simulations to investigate the performance of the four commonly used statistical models (Poisson, negative binomial, analysis of covariance [ANCOVA], and rank ANCOVA) based on the data from a diabetes clinical trial. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model were also evaluated. Simulation results showed that Poisson model inflated type I error, while negative binomial model was overly conservative. However, after adjusting for dispersion, both Poisson and negative binomial models yielded slightly inflated type I errors, which were close to the nominal level and reasonable power. Reasonable control of type I error was associated with ANCOVA model. Rank ANCOVA model was associated with the greatest power and with reasonable control of type I error. Inflated type I error was observed with ZIP and ZINB models.

Zero adjusted models with applications to analysing helminths count data.

PubMed

Chipeta, Michael G; Ngwira, Bagrey M; Simoonga, Christopher; Kazembe, Lawrence N

2014-11-27

It is common in public health and epidemiology that the outcome of interest is counts of events occurrence. Analysing these data using classical linear models is mostly inappropriate, even after transformation of outcome variables due to overdispersion. Zero-adjusted mixture count models such as zero-inflated and hurdle count models are applied to count data when over-dispersion and excess zeros exist. Main objective of the current paper is to apply such models to analyse risk factors associated with human helminths (S. haematobium) particularly in a case where there's a high proportion of zero counts. The data were collected during a community-based randomised control trial assessing the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Malawi, and a school-based cross sectional epidemiology survey in Zambia. Count data models including traditional (Poisson and negative binomial) models, zero modified models (zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) and hurdle models (Poisson logit hurdle and negative binomial logit hurdle) were fitted and compared. Using Akaike information criteria (AIC), the negative binomial logit hurdle (NBLH) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) showed best performance in both datasets. With regards to zero count capturing, these models performed better than other models. This paper showed that zero modified NBLH and ZINB models are more appropriate methods for the analysis of data with excess zeros. The choice between the hurdle and zero-inflated models should be based on the aim and endpoints of the study.

A Bayesian zero-truncated approach for analysing capture-recapture count data from classical scrapie surveillance in France.

PubMed

Vergne, Timothée; Calavas, Didier; Cazeau, Géraldine; Durand, Benoît; Dufour, Barbara; Grosbois, Vladimir

2012-06-01

Capture-recapture (CR) methods are used to study populations that are monitored with imperfect observation processes. They have recently been applied to the monitoring of animal diseases to evaluate the number of infected units that remain undetected by the surveillance system. This paper proposes three bayesian models to estimate the total number of scrapie-infected holdings in France from CR count data obtained from the French classical scrapie surveillance programme. We fitted two zero-truncated Poisson (ZTP) models (with and without holding size as a covariate) and a zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB) model to the 2006 national surveillance count dataset. We detected a large amount of heterogeneity in the count data, making the use of the simple ZTP model inappropriate. However, including holding size as a covariate did not bring any significant improvement over the simple ZTP model. The ZTNB model proved to be the best model, giving an estimation of 535 (CI(95%) 401-796) infected and detectable sheep holdings in 2006, although only 141 were effectively detected, resulting in a holding-level prevalence of 4.4‰ (CI(95%) 3.2-6.3) and a sensitivity of holding-level surveillance of 26% (CI(95%) 18-35). The main limitation of the present study was the small amount of data collected during the surveillance programme. It was therefore not possible to build complex models that would allow depicting more accurately the epidemiological and detection processes that generate the surveillance data. We discuss the perspectives of capture-recapture count models in the context of animal disease surveillance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Mixed-Effects Heterogeneous Negative Binomial Model for Postfire Conifer Regeneration in Northeastern California, USA

Treesearch

Justin S. Crotteau; Martin W. Ritchie; J. Morgan Varner

2014-01-01

Many western USA fire regimes are typified by mixed-severity fire, which compounds the variability inherent to natural regeneration densities in associated forests. Tree regeneration data are often discrete and nonnegative; accordingly, we fit a series of Poisson and negative binomial variation models to conifer seedling counts across four distinct burn severities and...

Measuring demand for flat water recreation using a two-stage/disequilibrium travel cost model with adjustment for overdispersion and self-selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKean, John R.; Johnson, Donn; Taylor, R. Garth

2003-04-01

An alternate travel cost model is applied to an on-site sample to estimate the value of flat water recreation on the impounded lower Snake River. Four contiguous reservoirs would be eliminated if the dams are breached to protect endangered Pacific salmon and steelhead trout. The empirical method applies truncated negative binomial regression with adjustment for endogenous stratification. The two-stage decision model assumes that recreationists allocate their time among work and leisure prior to deciding among consumer goods. The allocation of time and money among goods in the second stage is conditional on the predetermined work time and income. The second stage is a disequilibrium labor market which also applies if employers set work hours or if recreationists are not in the labor force. When work time is either predetermined, fixed by contract, or nonexistent, recreationists must consider separate prices and budgets for time and money.

Estimating the Economic Value of National Parks with Count Data Models Using On-Site, Secondary Data: The Case of the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heberling, Matthew T.; Templeton, Joshua J.

2009-04-01

We estimate an individual travel cost model for Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSD) in Colorado using on-site, secondary data. The purpose of the on-site survey was to help the National Park Service better understand the visitors of GSD; it was not intended for a travel cost model. Variables such as travel cost and income were estimated based on respondents’ Zip Codes. Following approaches found in the literature, a negative binomial model corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification fit the data the best. We estimate a recreational benefit of U.S. 89/visitor/year or U.S. 54/visitor/24-h recreational day (in 2002 U.S. ). Based on the approach presented here, there are other data sets for national parks, preserves, and battlefields where travel cost models could be estimated and used to support National Park Service management decisions.

Estimating cavity tree and snag abundance using negative binomial regression models and nearest neighbor imputation methods

Treesearch

Bianca N.I. Eskelson; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara M. Barrett

2009-01-01

Cavity tree and snag abundance data are highly variable and contain many zero observations. We predict cavity tree and snag abundance from variables that are readily available from forest cover maps or remotely sensed data using negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated NB, and zero-altered NB (ZANB) regression models as well as nearest neighbor (NN) imputation methods....

Poisson and negative binomial item count techniques for surveys with sensitive question.

PubMed

Tian, Guo-Liang; Tang, Man-Lai; Wu, Qin; Liu, Yin

2017-04-01

Although the item count technique is useful in surveys with sensitive questions, privacy of those respondents who possess the sensitive characteristic of interest may not be well protected due to a defect in its original design. In this article, we propose two new survey designs (namely the Poisson item count technique and negative binomial item count technique) which replace several independent Bernoulli random variables required by the original item count technique with a single Poisson or negative binomial random variable, respectively. The proposed models not only provide closed form variance estimate and confidence interval within [0, 1] for the sensitive proportion, but also simplify the survey design of the original item count technique. Most importantly, the new designs do not leak respondents' privacy. Empirical results show that the proposed techniques perform satisfactorily in the sense that it yields accurate parameter estimate and confidence interval.

Data mining of tree-based models to analyze freeway accident frequency.

PubMed

Chang, Li-Yen; Chen, Wen-Chieh

2005-01-01

Statistical models, such as Poisson or negative binomial regression models, have been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency for many years. However, these models have their own model assumptions and pre-defined underlying relationship between dependent and independent variables. If these assumptions are violated, the model could lead to erroneous estimation of accident likelihood. Classification and Regression Tree (CART), one of the most widely applied data mining techniques, has been commonly employed in business administration, industry, and engineering. CART does not require any pre-defined underlying relationship between target (dependent) variable and predictors (independent variables) and has been shown to be a powerful tool, particularly for dealing with prediction and classification problems. This study collected the 2001-2002 accident data of National Freeway 1 in Taiwan. A CART model and a negative binomial regression model were developed to establish the empirical relationship between traffic accidents and highway geometric variables, traffic characteristics, and environmental factors. The CART findings indicated that the average daily traffic volume and precipitation variables were the key determinants for freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies.

Exploring the effects of roadway characteristics on the frequency and severity of head-on crashes: case studies from Malaysian federal roads.

PubMed

Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Sadullah, Ahmad Farhan

2014-01-01

Head-on crashes are among the most severe collision types and of great concern to road safety authorities. Therefore, it justifies more efforts to reduce both the frequency and severity of this collision type. To this end, it is necessary to first identify factors associating with the crash occurrence. This can be done by developing crash prediction models that relate crash outcomes to a set of contributing factors. This study intends to identify the factors affecting both the frequency and severity of head-on crashes that occurred on 448 segments of five federal roads in Malaysia. Data on road characteristics and crash history were collected on the study segments during a 4-year period between 2007 and 2010. The frequency of head-on crashes were fitted by developing and comparing seven count-data models including Poisson, standard negative binomial (NB), random-effect negative binomial, hurdle Poisson, hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models. To model crash severity, a random-effect generalized ordered probit model (REGOPM) was used given a head-on crash had occurred. With respect to the crash frequency, the random-effect negative binomial (RENB) model was found to outperform the other models according to goodness of fit measures. Based on the results of the model, the variables horizontal curvature, terrain type, heavy-vehicle traffic, and access points were found to be positively related to the frequency of head-on crashes, while posted speed limit and shoulder width decreased the crash frequency. With regard to the crash severity, the results of REGOPM showed that horizontal curvature, paved shoulder width, terrain type, and side friction were associated with more severe crashes, whereas land use, access points, and presence of median reduced the probability of severe crashes. Based on the results of this study, some potential countermeasures were proposed to minimize the risk of head-on crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distribution-free Inference of Zero-inated Binomial Data for Longitudinal Studies.

PubMed

He, H; Wang, W J; Hu, J; Gallop, R; Crits-Christoph, P; Xia, Y L

2015-10-01

Count reponses with structural zeros are very common in medical and psychosocial research, especially in alcohol and HIV research, and the zero-inflated poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models are widely used for modeling such outcomes. However, as alcohol drinking outcomes such as days of drinkings are counts within a given period, their distributions are bounded above by an upper limit (total days in the period) and thus inherently follow a binomial or zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) distribution, rather than a Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution, in the presence of structural zeros. In this paper, we develop a new semiparametric approach for modeling zero-inflated binomial (ZIB)-like count responses for cross-sectional as well as longitudinal data. We illustrate this approach with both simulated and real study data.

Environmental, Spatial, and Sociodemographic Factors Associated with Nonfatal Injuries in Indonesia.

PubMed

Irianti, Sri; Prasetyoputra, Puguh

2017-01-01

Background . The determinants of injuries and their reoccurrence in Indonesia are not well understood, despite their importance in the prevention of injuries. Therefore, this study seeks to investigate the environmental, spatial, and sociodemographic factors associated with the reoccurrence of injuries among Indonesian people. Methods . Data from the 2013 round of the Indonesia Baseline Health Research (IBHR 2013) were analysed using a two-part hurdle regression model. A logit regression model was chosen for the zero-hurdle part , while a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model was selected for the counts part . Odds ratio (OR) and incidence rate ratio (IRR) were the measures of association, respectively. Results . The results suggest that living in a household with distant drinking water source, residing in slum areas, residing in Eastern Indonesia, having low educational attainment, being men, and being poorer are positively related to the likelihood of experiencing injury. Moreover, being a farmer or fishermen, having low educational attainment, and being men are positively associated with the frequency of injuries. Conclusion . This study would be useful to prioritise injury prevention programs in Indonesia based on the environmental, spatial, and sociodemographic characteristics.

Dispersion and sampling of adult Dermacentor andersoni in rangeland in Western North America.

PubMed

Rochon, K; Scoles, G A; Lysyk, T J

2012-03-01

A fixed precision sampling plan was developed for off-host populations of adult Rocky Mountain wood tick, Dermacentor andersoni (Stiles) based on data collected by dragging at 13 locations in Alberta, Canada; Washington; and Oregon. In total, 222 site-date combinations were sampled. Each site-date combination was considered a sample, and each sample ranged in size from 86 to 250 10 m2 quadrats. Analysis of simulated quadrats ranging in size from 10 to 50 m2 indicated that the most precise sample unit was the 10 m2 quadrat. Samples taken when abundance < 0.04 ticks per 10 m2 were more likely to not depart significantly from statistical randomness than samples taken when abundance was greater. Data were grouped into ten abundance classes and assessed for fit to the Poisson and negative binomial distributions. The Poisson distribution fit only data in abundance classes < 0.02 ticks per 10 m2, while the negative binomial distribution fit data from all abundance classes. A negative binomial distribution with common k = 0.3742 fit data in eight of the 10 abundance classes. Both the Taylor and Iwao mean-variance relationships were fit and used to predict sample sizes for a fixed level of precision. Sample sizes predicted using the Taylor model tended to underestimate actual sample sizes, while sample sizes estimated using the Iwao model tended to overestimate actual sample sizes. Using a negative binomial with common k provided estimates of required sample sizes closest to empirically calculated sample sizes.

Solving the problem of negative populations in approximate accelerated stochastic simulations using the representative reaction approach.

PubMed

Kadam, Shantanu; Vanka, Kumar

2013-02-15

Methods based on the stochastic formulation of chemical kinetics have the potential to accurately reproduce the dynamical behavior of various biochemical systems of interest. However, the computational expense makes them impractical for the study of real systems. Attempts to render these methods practical have led to the development of accelerated methods, where the reaction numbers are modeled by Poisson random numbers. However, for certain systems, such methods give rise to physically unrealistic negative numbers for species populations. The methods which make use of binomial variables, in place of Poisson random numbers, have since become popular, and have been partially successful in addressing this problem. In this manuscript, the development of two new computational methods, based on the representative reaction approach (RRA), has been discussed. The new methods endeavor to solve the problem of negative numbers, by making use of tools like the stochastic simulation algorithm and the binomial method, in conjunction with the RRA. It is found that these newly developed methods perform better than other binomial methods used for stochastic simulations, in resolving the problem of negative populations. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Leirness, Jeffery B.; Kinlan, Brian P.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Silverman, Emily D.

2014-01-01

Determining appropriate statistical distributions for modeling animal count data is important for accurate estimation of abundance, distribution, and trends. In the case of sea ducks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, managers want to estimate local and regional abundance to detect and track population declines, to define areas of high and low use, and to predict the impact of future habitat change on populations. In this paper, we used a modified marked point process to model survey data that recorded flock sizes of Common eiders, Long-tailed ducks, and Black, Surf, and White-winged scoters. The data come from an experimental aerial survey, conducted by the United States Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Division of Migratory Bird Management, during which east-west transects were flown along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida during the winters of 2009–2011. To model the number of flocks per transect (the points), we compared the fit of four statistical distributions (zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated geometric, zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial) to data on the number of species-specific sea duck flocks that were recorded for each transect flown. To model the flock sizes (the marks), we compared the fit of flock size data for each species to seven statistical distributions: positive Poisson, positive negative binomial, positive geometric, logarithmic, discretized lognormal, zeta and Yule–Simon. Akaike’s Information Criterion and Vuong’s closeness tests indicated that the negative binomial and discretized lognormal were the best distributions for all species for the points and marks, respectively. These findings have important implications for estimating sea duck abundances as the discretized lognormal is a more skewed distribution than the Poisson and negative binomial, which are frequently used to model avian counts; the lognormal is also less heavy-tailed than the power law distributions (e.g., zeta and Yule–Simon), which are becoming increasingly popular for group size modeling. Choosing appropriate statistical distributions for modeling flock size data is fundamental to accurately estimating population summaries, determining required survey effort, and assessing and propagating uncertainty through decision-making processes.

Selecting the right statistical model for analysis of insect count data by using information theoretic measures.

PubMed

Sileshi, G

2006-10-01

Researchers and regulatory agencies often make statistical inferences from insect count data using modelling approaches that assume homogeneous variance. Such models do not allow for formal appraisal of variability which in its different forms is the subject of interest in ecology. Therefore, the objectives of this paper were to (i) compare models suitable for handling variance heterogeneity and (ii) select optimal models to ensure valid statistical inferences from insect count data. The log-normal, standard Poisson, Poisson corrected for overdispersion, zero-inflated Poisson, the negative binomial distribution and zero-inflated negative binomial models were compared using six count datasets on foliage-dwelling insects and five families of soil-dwelling insects. Akaike's and Schwarz Bayesian information criteria were used for comparing the various models. Over 50% of the counts were zeros even in locally abundant species such as Ootheca bennigseni Weise, Mesoplatys ochroptera Stål and Diaecoderus spp. The Poisson model after correction for overdispersion and the standard negative binomial distribution model provided better description of the probability distribution of seven out of the 11 insects than the log-normal, standard Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial models. It is concluded that excess zeros and variance heterogeneity are common data phenomena in insect counts. If not properly modelled, these properties can invalidate the normal distribution assumptions resulting in biased estimation of ecological effects and jeopardizing the integrity of the scientific inferences. Therefore, it is recommended that statistical models appropriate for handling these data properties be selected using objective criteria to ensure efficient statistical inference.

Distribution pattern of public transport passenger in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narendra, Alfa; Malkhamah, Siti; Sopha, Bertha Maya

2018-03-01

The arrival and departure distribution pattern of Trans Jogja bus passenger is one of the fundamental model for simulation. The purpose of this paper is to build models of passengers flows. This research used passengers data from January to May 2014. There is no policy that change the operation system affecting the nature of this pattern nowadays. The roads, buses, land uses, schedule, and people are relatively still the same. The data then categorized based on the direction, days, and location. Moreover, each category was fitted into some well-known discrete distributions. Those distributions are compared based on its AIC value and BIC. The chosen distribution model has the smallest AIC and BIC value and the negative binomial distribution found has the smallest AIC and BIC value. Probability mass function (PMF) plots of those models were compared to draw generic model from each categorical negative binomial distribution models. The value of accepted generic negative binomial distribution is 0.7064 and 1.4504 of mu. The minimum and maximum passenger vector value of distribution are is 0 and 41.

Modeling number of claims and prediction of total claim amount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acar, Aslıhan Şentürk; Karabey, Uǧur

2017-07-01

In this study we focus on annual number of claims of a private health insurance data set which belongs to a local insurance company in Turkey. In addition to Poisson model and negative binomial model, zero-inflated Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model are used to model the number of claims in order to take into account excess zeros. To investigate the impact of different distributional assumptions for the number of claims on the prediction of total claim amount, predictive performances of candidate models are compared by using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria.

Modelling parasite aggregation: disentangling statistical and ecological approaches.

PubMed

Yakob, Laith; Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J; Gray, Darren J; Milinovich, Gabriel; Wardrop, Nicola; Dunning, Rebecca; Barendregt, Jan; Bieri, Franziska; Williams, Gail M; Clements, Archie C A

2014-05-01

The overdispersion in macroparasite infection intensity among host populations is commonly simulated using a constant negative binomial aggregation parameter. We describe an alternative to utilising the negative binomial approach and demonstrate important disparities in intervention efficacy projections that can come about from opting for pattern-fitting models that are not process-explicit. We present model output in the context of the epidemiology and control of soil-transmitted helminths due to the significant public health burden imposed by these parasites, but our methods are applicable to other infections with demonstrable aggregation in parasite numbers among hosts. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

PubMed

Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

2012-10-04

The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size. Regions with larger populations (regions 4 and 6) had higher values of EA than region 10 (which had the smallest population) for negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms. The difference was 12.5% and 13.5% on average in negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms, respectively. We present the first detailed comparative analysis of popular early epidemic detection algorithms on Google Flu Trends data. We note that realizing this opportunity requires moving beyond the cumulative sum and historical limits method-based normal distribution approaches, traditionally employed by the CDC, to negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms to deal with potentially noisy search query data from regions with varying population and Internet penetrations. Based on our work, we have developed FluBreaks, an early warning system for flu epidemics using Google Flu Trends.

A big data approach to the development of mixed-effects models for seizure count data.

PubMed

Tharayil, Joseph J; Chiang, Sharon; Moss, Robert; Stern, John M; Theodore, William H; Goldenholz, Daniel M

2017-05-01

Our objective was to develop a generalized linear mixed model for predicting seizure count that is useful in the design and analysis of clinical trials. This model also may benefit the design and interpretation of seizure-recording paradigms. Most existing seizure count models do not include children, and there is currently no consensus regarding the most suitable model that can be applied to children and adults. Therefore, an additional objective was to develop a model that accounts for both adult and pediatric epilepsy. Using data from SeizureTracker.com, a patient-reported seizure diary tool with >1.2 million recorded seizures across 8 years, we evaluated the appropriateness of Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, and modified negative binomial models for seizure count data based on minimization of the Bayesian information criterion. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to account for demographic and etiologic covariates and for autocorrelation structure. Holdout cross-validation was used to evaluate predictive accuracy in simulating seizure frequencies. For both adults and children, we found that a negative binomial model with autocorrelation over 1 day was optimal. Using holdout cross-validation, the proposed model was found to provide accurate simulation of seizure counts for patients with up to four seizures per day. The optimal model can be used to generate more realistic simulated patient data with very few input parameters. The availability of a parsimonious, realistic virtual patient model can be of great utility in simulations of phase II/III clinical trials, epilepsy monitoring units, outpatient biosensors, and mobile Health (mHealth) applications. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International League Against Epilepsy.

Bayesian inference for disease prevalence using negative binomial group testing

PubMed Central

Pritchard, Nicholas A.; Tebbs, Joshua M.

2011-01-01

Group testing, also known as pooled testing, and inverse sampling are both widely used methods of data collection when the goal is to estimate a small proportion. Taking a Bayesian approach, we consider the new problem of estimating disease prevalence from group testing when inverse (negative binomial) sampling is used. Using different distributions to incorporate prior knowledge of disease incidence and different loss functions, we derive closed form expressions for posterior distributions and resulting point and credible interval estimators. We then evaluate our new estimators, on Bayesian and classical grounds, and apply our methods to a West Nile Virus data set. PMID:21259308

Use of negative binomial distribution to describe the presence of Anisakis in Thyrsites atun.

PubMed

Peña-Rehbein, Patricio; De los Ríos-Escalante, Patricio

2012-01-01

Nematodes of the genus Anisakis have marine fishes as intermediate hosts. One of these hosts is Thyrsites atun, an important fishery resource in Chile between 38 and 41° S. This paper describes the frequency and number of Anisakis nematodes in the internal organs of Thyrsites atun. An analysis based on spatial distribution models showed that the parasites tend to be clustered. The variation in the number of parasites per host could be described by the negative binomial distribution. The maximum observed number of parasites was nine parasites per host. The environmental and zoonotic aspects of the study are also discussed.

Selecting a distributional assumption for modelling relative densities of benthic macroinvertebrates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, B.R.

2005-01-01

The selection of a distributional assumption suitable for modelling macroinvertebrate density data is typically challenging. Macroinvertebrate data often exhibit substantially larger variances than expected under a standard count assumption, that of the Poisson distribution. Such overdispersion may derive from multiple sources, including heterogeneity of habitat (historically and spatially), differing life histories for organisms collected within a single collection in space and time, and autocorrelation. Taken to extreme, heterogeneity of habitat may be argued to explain the frequent large proportions of zero observations in macroinvertebrate data. Sampling locations may consist of habitats defined qualitatively as either suitable or unsuitable. The former category may yield random or stochastic zeroes and the latter structural zeroes. Heterogeneity among counts may be accommodated by treating the count mean itself as a random variable, while extra zeroes may be accommodated using zero-modified count assumptions, including zero-inflated and two-stage (or hurdle) approaches. These and linear assumptions (following log- and square root-transformations) were evaluated using 9 years of mayfly density data from a 52 km, ninth-order reach of the Upper Mississippi River (n = 959). The data exhibited substantial overdispersion relative to that expected under a Poisson assumption (i.e. variance:mean ratio = 23 ??? 1), and 43% of the sampling locations yielded zero mayflies. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), count models were improved most by treating the count mean as a random variable (via a Poisson-gamma distributional assumption) and secondarily by zero modification (i.e. improvements in AIC values = 9184 units and 47-48 units, respectively). Zeroes were underestimated by the Poisson, log-transform and square root-transform models, slightly by the standard negative binomial model but not by the zero-modified models (61%, 24%, 32%, 7%, and 0%, respectively). However, the zero-modified Poisson models underestimated small counts (1 ??? y ??? 4) and overestimated intermediate counts (7 ??? y ??? 23). Counts greater than zero were estimated well by zero-modified negative binomial models, while counts greater than one were also estimated well by the standard negative binomial model. Based on AIC and percent zero estimation criteria, the two-stage and zero-inflated models performed similarly. The above inferences were largely confirmed when the models were used to predict values from a separate, evaluation data set (n = 110). An exception was that, using the evaluation data set, the standard negative binomial model appeared superior to its zero-modified counterparts using the AIC (but not percent zero criteria). This and other evidence suggest that a negative binomial distributional assumption should be routinely considered when modelling benthic macroinvertebrate data from low flow environments. Whether negative binomial models should themselves be routinely examined for extra zeroes requires, from a statistical perspective, more investigation. However, this question may best be answered by ecological arguments that may be specific to the sampled species and locations. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifiability in N-mixture models: a large-scale screening test with bird data.

PubMed

Kéry, Marc

2018-02-01

Binomial N-mixture models have proven very useful in ecology, conservation, and monitoring: they allow estimation and modeling of abundance separately from detection probability using simple counts. Recently, doubts about parameter identifiability have been voiced. I conducted a large-scale screening test with 137 bird data sets from 2,037 sites. I found virtually no identifiability problems for Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) binomial N-mixture models, but negative-binomial (NB) models had problems in 25% of all data sets. The corresponding multinomial N-mixture models had no problems. Parameter estimates under Poisson and ZIP binomial and multinomial N-mixture models were extremely similar. Identifiability problems became a little more frequent with smaller sample sizes (267 and 50 sites), but were unaffected by whether the models did or did not include covariates. Hence, binomial N-mixture model parameters with Poisson and ZIP mixtures typically appeared identifiable. In contrast, NB mixtures were often unidentifiable, which is worrying since these were often selected by Akaike's information criterion. Identifiability of binomial N-mixture models should always be checked. If problems are found, simpler models, integrated models that combine different observation models or the use of external information via informative priors or penalized likelihoods, may help. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Distribution pattern of phthirapterans infesting certain common Indian birds.

PubMed

Saxena, A K; Kumar, Sandeep; Gupta, Nidhi; Mitra, J D; Ali, S A; Srivastava, Roshni

2007-08-01

The prevalence and frequency distribution patterns of 10 phthirapteran species infesting house sparrows, Indian parakeets, common mynas, and white breasted kingfishers were recorded in the district of Rampur, India, during 2004-05. The sample mean abundances, mean intensities, range of infestations, variance to mean ratios, values of the exponent of the negative binomial distribution, and the indices of discrepancy were also computed. Frequency distribution patterns of all phthirapteran species were skewed, but the observed frequencies did not correspond to the negative binomial distribution. Thus, adult-nymph ratios varied in different species from 1:0.53 to 1:1.25. Sex ratios of different phthirapteran species ranged from 1:1.10 to 1:1.65 and were female biased.

Sample size determination for a three-arm equivalence trial of Poisson and negative binomial responses.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Wei; Tsong, Yi; Zhao, Zhigen

2017-01-01

Assessing equivalence or similarity has drawn much attention recently as many drug products have lost or will lose their patents in the next few years, especially certain best-selling biologics. To claim equivalence between the test treatment and the reference treatment when assay sensitivity is well established from historical data, one has to demonstrate both superiority of the test treatment over placebo and equivalence between the test treatment and the reference treatment. Thus, there is urgency for practitioners to derive a practical way to calculate sample size for a three-arm equivalence trial. The primary endpoints of a clinical trial may not always be continuous, but may be discrete. In this paper, the authors derive power function and discuss sample size requirement for a three-arm equivalence trial with Poisson and negative binomial clinical endpoints. In addition, the authors examine the effect of the dispersion parameter on the power and the sample size by varying its coefficient from small to large. In extensive numerical studies, the authors demonstrate that required sample size heavily depends on the dispersion parameter. Therefore, misusing a Poisson model for negative binomial data may easily lose power up to 20%, depending on the value of the dispersion parameter.

The analysis of incontinence episodes and other count data in patients with overactive bladder by Poisson and negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Martina, R; Kay, R; van Maanen, R; Ridder, A

2015-01-01

Clinical studies in overactive bladder have traditionally used analysis of covariance or nonparametric methods to analyse the number of incontinence episodes and other count data. It is known that if the underlying distributional assumptions of a particular parametric method do not hold, an alternative parametric method may be more efficient than a nonparametric one, which makes no assumptions regarding the underlying distribution of the data. Therefore, there are advantages in using methods based on the Poisson distribution or extensions of that method, which incorporate specific features that provide a modelling framework for count data. One challenge with count data is overdispersion, but methods are available that can account for this through the introduction of random effect terms in the modelling, and it is this modelling framework that leads to the negative binomial distribution. These models can also provide clinicians with a clearer and more appropriate interpretation of treatment effects in terms of rate ratios. In this paper, the previously used parametric and non-parametric approaches are contrasted with those based on Poisson regression and various extensions in trials evaluating solifenacin and mirabegron in patients with overactive bladder. In these applications, negative binomial models are seen to fit the data well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A methodology to design heuristics for model selection based on the characteristics of data: Application to investigate when the Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB).

PubMed

Shirazi, Mohammadali; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Lord, Dominique; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy

2017-10-01

Safety analysts usually use post-modeling methods, such as the Goodness-of-Fit statistics or the Likelihood Ratio Test, to decide between two or more competitive distributions or models. Such metrics require all competitive distributions to be fitted to the data before any comparisons can be accomplished. Given the continuous growth in introducing new statistical distributions, choosing the best one using such post-modeling methods is not a trivial task, in addition to all theoretical or numerical issues the analyst may face during the analysis. Furthermore, and most importantly, these measures or tests do not provide any intuitions into why a specific distribution (or model) is preferred over another (Goodness-of-Logic). This paper ponders into these issues by proposing a methodology to design heuristics for Model Selection based on the characteristics of data, in terms of descriptive summary statistics, before fitting the models. The proposed methodology employs two analytic tools: (1) Monte-Carlo Simulations and (2) Machine Learning Classifiers, to design easy heuristics to predict the label of the 'most-likely-true' distribution for analyzing data. The proposed methodology was applied to investigate when the recently introduced Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) distribution is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB) distribution. Heuristics were designed to select the 'most-likely-true' distribution between these two distributions, given a set of prescribed summary statistics of data. The proposed heuristics were successfully compared against classical tests for several real or observed datasets. Not only they are easy to use and do not need any post-modeling inputs, but also, using these heuristics, the analyst can attain useful information about why the NB-L is preferred over the NB - or vice versa- when modeling data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Binomial test statistics using Psi functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, Kimiko o

2007-01-01

For the negative binomial model (probability generating function (p + 1 - pt){sup -k}) a logarithmic derivative is the Psi function difference {psi}(k + x) - {psi}(k); this and its derivatives lead to a test statistic to decide on the validity of a specified model. The test statistic uses a data base so there exists a comparison available between theory and application. Note that the test function is not dominated by outliers. Applications to (i) Fisher's tick data, (ii) accidents data, (iii) Weldon's dice data are included.

Spatiotemporal and random parameter panel data models of traffic crash fatalities in Vietnam.

PubMed

Truong, Long T; Kieu, Le-Minh; Vu, Tuan A

2016-09-01

This paper investigates factors associated with traffic crash fatalities in 63 provinces of Vietnam during the period from 2012 to 2014. Random effect negative binomial (RENB) and random parameter negative binomial (RPNB) panel data models are adopted to consider spatial heterogeneity across provinces. In addition, a spatiotemporal model with conditional autoregressive priors (ST-CAR) is utilised to account for spatiotemporal autocorrelation in the data. The statistical comparison indicates the ST-CAR model outperforms the RENB and RPNB models. Estimation results provide several significant findings. For example, traffic crash fatalities tend to be higher in provinces with greater numbers of level crossings. Passenger distance travelled and road lengths are also positively associated with fatalities. However, hospital densities are negatively associated with fatalities. The safety impact of the national highway 1A, the main transport corridor of the country, is also highlighted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring moral hazard and adverse selection by propensity scoring in the mixed health care economy of Hong Kong.

PubMed

Wong, Irene O L; Lindner, Michael J; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lau, Eric H Y; Lo, Su-Vui; Leung, Gabriel M

2010-04-01

To evaluate the presence of moral hazard, adjusted for the propensity to have self-purchased insurance policies, employer-based medical benefits, and welfare-associated medical benefits in Hong Kong. Based on 2005 population survey, we used logistic regression and zero-truncated negative binomial/Poisson regressions to assess the presence of moral hazard by comparing inpatient and outpatient utilization between insured and uninsured individuals. We fitted each enabling factor specific to the type of service covered, and adjusted for predisposing socioeconomic and demographic factors. We used a propensity score approach to account for potential adverse selection. Employment-based benefits coverage was associated with increased access and intensity of use for both inpatient and outpatient care, except for public hospital use. Similarly, welfare-based coverage had comparable effect sizes as employment-based schemes, except for the total number of public ambulatory episodes. Self-purchased insurance facilitated access but did not apparently induce greater demand of services among ever users. Nevertheless, there was no evidence of moral hazard in public hospital use. Our findings suggest that employment-based benefits coverage lead to the greatest degree of moral hazard in Hong Kong. Future studies should focus on confirming these observational findings using a randomized design. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of acute care hospital services by immigrant seniors in Ontario: A linkage study.

PubMed

Ng, Edward; Sanmartin, Claudia; Tu, Jack; Manuel, Doug

2014-10-01

Seniors constitute the largest group of hospital users. The increasing share of immigrants in Canada's senior population can affect the demand for hospital care. This study used the linked 2006 Census-Hospital Discharge Abstract Database to examine hospitalization during the 2004-to-2006 period, by immigrant status, of Ontario seniors living in the community. Hospitalization was assessed with logistic regressions; cumulative length of stay, with zero-truncated negative binomial regressions. All-cause hospitalization and hospitalizations specific to circulatory and digestive diseases were examined. Immigrant seniors had significantly low age-/sex-adjusted odds of hospitalization, compared with Canadian-born seniors (OR = 0.81). The odds varied from 0.4 among East Asians to 0.89 among Europeans, and rose with length of time since arrival from 0.54 for recent (1994 to 2003) to 0.86 for long-term (before 1984) immigrants. Adjustment for demographic and socio-economic characteristics did not change the overall patterns. Immigrants' cumulated length of hospital stay tended to be shorter than or similar to that of Canadian-born seniors. Immigrant seniors, especially recent arrivals, had lower odds of hospitalization and similar time in hospital, compared with Canadian-born seniors. These patterns likely reflect differences in health status. Variations by world region and disease reflect the diverse health care needs of immigrant seniors.

A comparison of different ways of including baseline counts in negative binomial models for data from falls prevention trials.

PubMed

Zheng, Han; Kimber, Alan; Goodwin, Victoria A; Pickering, Ruth M

2018-01-01

A common design for a falls prevention trial is to assess falling at baseline, randomize participants into an intervention or control group, and ask them to record the number of falls they experience during a follow-up period of time. This paper addresses how best to include the baseline count in the analysis of the follow-up count of falls in negative binomial (NB) regression. We examine the performance of various approaches in simulated datasets where both counts are generated from a mixed Poisson distribution with shared random subject effect. Including the baseline count after log-transformation as a regressor in NB regression (NB-logged) or as an offset (NB-offset) resulted in greater power than including the untransformed baseline count (NB-unlogged). Cook and Wei's conditional negative binomial (CNB) model replicates the underlying process generating the data. In our motivating dataset, a statistically significant intervention effect resulted from the NB-logged, NB-offset, and CNB models, but not from NB-unlogged, and large, outlying baseline counts were overly influential in NB-unlogged but not in NB-logged. We conclude that there is little to lose by including the log-transformed baseline count in standard NB regression compared to CNB for moderate to larger sized datasets. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Binomial leap methods for simulating stochastic chemical kinetics.

PubMed

Tian, Tianhai; Burrage, Kevin

2004-12-01

This paper discusses efficient simulation methods for stochastic chemical kinetics. Based on the tau-leap and midpoint tau-leap methods of Gillespie [D. T. Gillespie, J. Chem. Phys. 115, 1716 (2001)], binomial random variables are used in these leap methods rather than Poisson random variables. The motivation for this approach is to improve the efficiency of the Poisson leap methods by using larger stepsizes. Unlike Poisson random variables whose range of sample values is from zero to infinity, binomial random variables have a finite range of sample values. This probabilistic property has been used to restrict possible reaction numbers and to avoid negative molecular numbers in stochastic simulations when larger stepsize is used. In this approach a binomial random variable is defined for a single reaction channel in order to keep the reaction number of this channel below the numbers of molecules that undergo this reaction channel. A sampling technique is also designed for the total reaction number of a reactant species that undergoes two or more reaction channels. Samples for the total reaction number are not greater than the molecular number of this species. In addition, probability properties of the binomial random variables provide stepsize conditions for restricting reaction numbers in a chosen time interval. These stepsize conditions are important properties of robust leap control strategies. Numerical results indicate that the proposed binomial leap methods can be applied to a wide range of chemical reaction systems with very good accuracy and significant improvement on efficiency over existing approaches. (c) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Football goal distributions and extremal statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenhough, J.; Birch, P. C.; Chapman, S. C.; Rowlands, G.

2002-12-01

We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored are too heavy-tailed to be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions which would be expected for uncorrelated processes. Log-normal distributions cannot include zero scores and here we find that the PDFs are consistent with those arising from extremal statistics. In addition, we show that it is sufficient to model English top division and FA Cup matches in the seasons of 1970/71-2000/01 on Poisson or negative binomial distributions, as reported in analyses of earlier seasons, and that these are not consistent with extremal statistics.

Pricing American Asian options with higher moments in the underlying distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Keng-Hsin; Wang, Kehluh; Hsu, Ming-Feng

2009-01-01

We develop a modified Edgeworth binomial model with higher moment consideration for pricing American Asian options. With lognormal underlying distribution for benchmark comparison, our algorithm is as precise as that of Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] if the number of the time steps increases. If the underlying distribution displays negative skewness and leptokurtosis as often observed for stock index returns, our estimates can work better than those in Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] and are very similar to the benchmarks in Hull and White [J. Hull, A. White, Efficient procedures for valuing European and American path-dependent options, J. Derivatives 1 (Fall) (1993) 21-31]. The numerical analysis shows that our modified Edgeworth binomial model can value American Asian options with greater accuracy and speed given higher moments in their underlying distribution.

Development of enhanced pavement deterioration curves.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

This report describes the research performed by the Center for Sustainable Transportation Infrastructure (CSTI) at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to develop a pavement condition prediction model, using (negative binomial) regressio...

The roles played by highly truncated splice variants of G protein-coupled receptors

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Alternative splicing of G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) genes greatly increases the total number of receptor isoforms which may be expressed in a cell-dependent and time-dependent manner. This increased diversity of cell signaling options caused by the generation of splice variants is further enhanced by receptor dimerization. When alternative splicing generates highly truncated GPCRs with less than seven transmembrane (TM) domains, the predominant effect in vitro is that of a dominant-negative mutation associated with the retention of the wild-type receptor in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). For constitutively active (agonist-independent) GPCRs, their attenuated expression on the cell surface, and consequent decreased basal activity due to the dominant-negative effect of truncated splice variants, has pathological consequences. Truncated splice variants may conversely offer protection from disease when expression of co-receptors for binding of infectious agents to cells is attenuated due to ER retention of the wild-type co-receptor. In this review, we will see that GPCRs retained in the ER can still be functionally active but also that highly truncated GPCRs may also be functionally active. Although rare, some truncated splice variants still bind ligand and activate cell signaling responses. More importantly, by forming heterodimers with full-length GPCRs, some truncated splice variants also provide opportunities to generate receptor complexes with unique pharmacological properties. So, instead of assuming that highly truncated GPCRs are associated with faulty transcription processes, it is time to reassess their potential benefit to the host organism. PMID:22938630

Indicators of Terrorism Vulnerability in Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

the terror threat and vulnerabilities across Africa. Key words: Terrorism, Africa, Negative Binomial Regression, Classification Tree iv I would like...31 Metrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Log -likelihood...70 viii Page 5.3 Classification Tree Description

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts.

PubMed

Preisser, John S; Long, D Leann; Stamm, John W

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two data sets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in 2 groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial comparing 3 toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analyzed with negative binomial hurdle, zero-inflated negative binomial, and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the randomized clinical trial were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. The choice of statistical model class should match the study's purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children's caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; Long, D. Leann; Stamm, John W.

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two datasets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in two groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial (RCT) comparing three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analysed with negative binomial hurdle (NBH), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial (MZINB) models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the RCT were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. Choice of statistical model class should match the study’s purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. PMID:28291962

Zero-state Markov switching count-data models: an empirical assessment.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2010-01-01

In this study, a two-state Markov switching count-data model is proposed as an alternative to zero-inflated models to account for the preponderance of zeros sometimes observed in transportation count data, such as the number of accidents occurring on a roadway segment over some period of time. For this accident-frequency case, zero-inflated models assume the existence of two states: one of the states is a zero-accident count state, which has accident probabilities that are so low that they cannot be statistically distinguished from zero, and the other state is a normal-count state, in which counts can be non-negative integers that are generated by some counting process, for example, a Poisson or negative binomial. While zero-inflated models have come under some criticism with regard to accident-frequency applications - one fact is undeniable - in many applications they provide a statistically superior fit to the data. The Markov switching approach we propose seeks to overcome some of the criticism associated with the zero-accident state of the zero-inflated model by allowing individual roadway segments to switch between zero and normal-count states over time. An important advantage of this Markov switching approach is that it allows for the direct statistical estimation of the specific roadway-segment state (i.e., zero-accident or normal-count state) whereas traditional zero-inflated models do not. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, a two-state Markov switching negative binomial model (estimated with Bayesian inference) and standard zero-inflated negative binomial models are estimated using five-year accident frequencies on Indiana interstate highway segments. It is shown that the Markov switching model is a viable alternative and results in a superior statistical fit relative to the zero-inflated models.

Who Visits a National Park and What do They Get Out of It?: A Joint Visitor Cluster Analysis and Travel Cost Model for Yellowstone National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson, Charles; Watson, Philip; Taylor, Garth; Cook, Philip; Hollenhorst, Steve

2013-10-01

Yellowstone National Park visitor data were obtained from a survey collected for the National Park Service by the Park Studies Unit at the University of Idaho. Travel cost models have been conducted for national parks in the United States; however, this study builds on these studies and investigates how benefits vary by types of visitors who participate in different activities while at the park. Visitor clusters were developed based on activities in which a visitor participated while at the park. The clusters were analyzed and then incorporated into a travel cost model to determine the economic value (consumer surplus) that the different visitor groups received from visiting the park. The model was estimated using a zero-truncated negative binomial regression corrected for endogenous stratification. The travel cost price variable was estimated using both 1/3 and 1/4 the wage rate to test for sensitivity to opportunity cost specification. The average benefit across all visitor cluster groups was estimated at between 235 and 276 per person per trip. However, per trip benefits varied substantially across clusters; from 90 to 103 for the "value picnickers," to 185-263 for the "backcountry enthusiasts," 189-278 for the "do it all adventurists," 204-303 for the "windshield tourists," and 323-714 for the "creature comfort" cluster group.

Functional analysis of Rift Valley fever virus NSs encoding a partial truncation.

PubMed

Head, Jennifer A; Kalveram, Birte; Ikegami, Tetsuro

2012-01-01

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), belongs to genus Phlebovirus of the family Bunyaviridae, causes high rates of abortion and fetal malformation in infected ruminants as well as causing neurological disorders, blindness, or lethal hemorrhagic fever in humans. RVFV is classified as a category A priority pathogen and a select agent in the U.S., and currently there are no therapeutics available for RVF patients. NSs protein, a major virulence factor of RVFV, inhibits host transcription including interferon (IFN)-β mRNA synthesis and promotes degradation of dsRNA-dependent protein kinase (PKR). NSs self-associates at the C-terminus 17 aa., while NSs at aa.210-230 binds to Sin3A-associated protein (SAP30) to inhibit the activation of IFN-β promoter. Thus, we hypothesize that NSs function(s) can be abolished by truncation of specific domains, and co-expression of nonfunctional NSs with intact NSs will result in the attenuation of NSs function by dominant-negative effect. Unexpectedly, we found that RVFV NSs truncated at aa. 6-30, 31-55, 56-80, 81-105, 106-130, 131-155, 156-180, 181-205, 206-230, 231-248 or 249-265 lack functions of IFN-β mRNA synthesis inhibition and degradation of PKR. Truncated NSs were less stable in infected cells, while nuclear localization was inhibited in NSs lacking either of aa.81-105, 106-130, 131-155, 156-180, 181-205, 206-230 or 231-248. Furthermore, none of truncated NSs had exhibited significant dominant-negative functions for NSs-mediated IFN-β suppression or PKR degradation upon co-expression in cells infected with RVFV. We also found that any of truncated NSs except for intact NSs does not interact with RVFV NSs even in the presence of intact C-terminus self-association domain. Our results suggest that conformational integrity of NSs is important for the stability, cellular localization and biological functions of RVFV NSs, and the co-expression of truncated NSs does not exhibit dominant-negative phenotype.

Application of a hurdle negative binomial count data model to demand for bass fishing in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Florkowski, Wojciech J

2007-06-01

This paper identifies factors that influence the demand for a bass fishing trip taken in the southeastern United States using a hurdle negative binomial count data model. The probability of fishing for a bass is estimated in the first stage and the fishing trip frequency is estimated in the second stage for individuals reporting bass fishing trips in the Southeast. The applied approach allows the decomposition of the effects of factors responsible for the decision to take a trip and the trip number. Calculated partial and total elasticities indicate a highly inelastic demand for the number of fishing trips as trip costs increase. However, the demand can be expected to increase if anglers experience a success measured by the number of caught fish or their size. Benefit estimates based on alternative estimation methods differ substantially, suggesting the need for testing each modeling approach applied in empirical studies.

A comparative study of count models: application to pedestrian-vehicle crashes along Malaysia federal roads.

PubMed

Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Pour, Mehdi Hossein; Prasetijo, Joewono; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Ghadiri, Seyed Mohammad Reza

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effects of various roadway characteristics on the incidence of pedestrian-vehicle crashes by developing a set of crash prediction models on 543 km of Malaysia federal roads over a 4-year time span between 2007 and 2010. Four count models including the Poisson, negative binomial (NB), hurdle Poisson (HP), and hurdle negative binomial (HNB) models were developed and compared to model the number of pedestrian crashes. The results indicated the presence of overdispersion in the pedestrian crashes (PCs) and showed that it is due to excess zero rather than variability in the crash data. To handle the issue, the hurdle Poisson model was found to be the best model among the considered models in terms of comparative measures. Moreover, the variables average daily traffic, heavy vehicle traffic, speed limit, land use, and area type were significantly associated with PCs.

Analyzing crash frequency in freeway tunnels: A correlated random parameters approach.

PubMed

Hou, Qinzhong; Tarko, Andrew P; Meng, Xianghai

2018-02-01

The majority of past road safety studies focused on open road segments while only a few focused on tunnels. Moreover, the past tunnel studies produced some inconsistent results about the safety effects of the traffic patterns, the tunnel design, and the pavement conditions. The effects of these conditions therefore remain unknown, especially for freeway tunnels in China. The study presented in this paper investigated the safety effects of these various factors utilizing a four-year period (2009-2012) of data as well as three models: 1) a random effects negative binomial model (RENB), 2) an uncorrelated random parameters negative binomial model (URPNB), and 3) a correlated random parameters negative binomial model (CRPNB). Of these three, the results showed that the CRPNB model provided better goodness-of-fit and offered more insights into the factors that contribute to tunnel safety. The CRPNB was not only able to allocate the part of the otherwise unobserved heterogeneity to the individual model parameters but also was able to estimate the cross-correlations between these parameters. Furthermore, the study results showed that traffic volume, tunnel length, proportion of heavy trucks, curvature, and pavement rutting were associated with higher frequencies of traffic crashes, while the distance to the tunnel wall, distance to the adjacent tunnel, distress ratio, International Roughness Index (IRI), and friction coefficient were associated with lower crash frequencies. In addition, the effects of the heterogeneity of the proportion of heavy trucks, the curvature, the rutting depth, and the friction coefficient were identified and their inter-correlations were analyzed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the cure rate in Iranian breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Rahimzadeh, Mitra; Baghestani, Ahmad Reza; Gohari, Mahmood Reza; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin

2014-01-01

Although the Cox's proportional hazard model is the popular approach for survival analysis to investigate significant risk factors of cancer patient survival, it is not appropriate in the case of log-term disease free survival. Recently, cure rate models have been introduced to distinguish between clinical determinants of cure and variables associated with the time to event of interest. The aim of this study was to use a cure rate model to determine the clinical associated factors for cure rates of patients with breast cancer (BC). This prospective cohort study covered 305 patients with BC, admitted at Shahid Faiazbakhsh Hospital, Tehran, during 2006 to 2008 and followed until April 2012. Cases of patient death were confirmed by telephone contact. For data analysis, a non-mixed cure rate model with Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution were employed. All analyses were carried out using a developed Macro in WinBugs. Deviance information criteria (DIC) were employed to find the best model. The overall 1-year, 3-year and 5-year relative survival rates were 97%, 89% and 74%. Metastasis and stage of BC were the significant factors, but age was significant only in negative binomial model. The DIC also showed that the negative binomial model had a better fit. This study indicated that, metastasis and stage of BC were identified as the clinical criteria for cure rates. There are limited studies on BC survival which employed these cure rate models to identify the clinical factors associated with cure. These models are better than Cox, in the case of long-term survival.

Estimating spatial and temporal components of variation in count data using negative binomial mixed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Brian J.; Wagner, Tyler; Bence, James R.; Kepler, Megan V.; Liu, Weihai; Hayes, Daniel B.

2013-01-01

Partitioning total variability into its component temporal and spatial sources is a powerful way to better understand time series and elucidate trends. The data available for such analyses of fish and other populations are usually nonnegative integer counts of the number of organisms, often dominated by many low values with few observations of relatively high abundance. These characteristics are not well approximated by the Gaussian distribution. We present a detailed description of a negative binomial mixed-model framework that can be used to model count data and quantify temporal and spatial variability. We applied these models to data from four fishery-independent surveys of Walleyes Sander vitreus across the Great Lakes basin. Specifically, we fitted models to gill-net catches from Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior; Oneida Lake, New York; Saginaw Bay in Lake Huron, Michigan; and Ohio waters of Lake Erie. These long-term monitoring surveys varied in overall sampling intensity, the total catch of Walleyes, and the proportion of zero catches. Parameter estimation included the negative binomial scaling parameter, and we quantified the random effects as the variations among gill-net sampling sites, the variations among sampled years, and site × year interactions. This framework (i.e., the application of a mixed model appropriate for count data in a variance-partitioning context) represents a flexible approach that has implications for monitoring programs (e.g., trend detection) and for examining the potential of individual variance components to serve as response metrics to large-scale anthropogenic perturbations or ecological changes.

Evaluation of surrogate measures for pedestrian safety in various road and roadside environments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

This report presents an investigation of pedestrian conflicts and crash count models to learn which exposure measures and roadway or roadside characteristics significantly influence pedestrian safety at road crossings. Negative binomial models were e...

Expression of a truncated Hmga1b gene induces gigantism, lipomatosis and B-cell lymphomas in mice.

PubMed

Fedele, Monica; Visone, Rosa; De Martino, Ivana; Palmieri, Dario; Valentino, Teresa; Esposito, Francesco; Klein-Szanto, Andres; Arra, Claudio; Ciarmiello, Andrea; Croce, Carlo M; Fusco, Alfredo

2011-02-01

HMGA1 gene rearrangements have been frequently described in human lipomas. In vitro studies suggest that HMGA1 proteins have a negative role in the control of adipocyte cell growth, and that HMGA1 gene truncation acts in a dominant-negative fashion. Therefore, to define better the role of the HMGA1 alterations in the generation of human lipomas, we generated mice carrying an Hmga1b truncated (Hmga1b/T) gene. These mice develop a giant phenotype together with a drastic expansion of the retroperitoneal and subcutaneous white adipose tissue. We show that the activation of the E2F pathway likely accounts, at least in part, for this phenotype. Interestingly, the Hmga1b/T mice also develop B-cell lymphomas similar to that occurring in Hmga1-knockout mice, supporting a dominant-negative role of the Hmga1b/T mutant also in vivo. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lotka's Law and Institutional Productivity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kumar, Suresh; Sharma, Praveen; Garg, K. C.

1998-01-01

Examines the applicability of Lotka's Law, negative binomial distribution, and lognormal distribution for institutional productivity in the same way as it is to authors and their productivity. Results indicate that none of the distributions are applicable for institutional productivity in engineering sciences. (Author/LRW)

Functional Analysis of Rift Valley Fever Virus NSs Encoding a Partial Truncation

PubMed Central

Head, Jennifer A.; Kalveram, Birte; Ikegami, Tetsuro

2012-01-01

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), belongs to genus Phlebovirus of the family Bunyaviridae, causes high rates of abortion and fetal malformation in infected ruminants as well as causing neurological disorders, blindness, or lethal hemorrhagic fever in humans. RVFV is classified as a category A priority pathogen and a select agent in the U.S., and currently there are no therapeutics available for RVF patients. NSs protein, a major virulence factor of RVFV, inhibits host transcription including interferon (IFN)-β mRNA synthesis and promotes degradation of dsRNA-dependent protein kinase (PKR). NSs self-associates at the C-terminus 17 aa., while NSs at aa.210–230 binds to Sin3A-associated protein (SAP30) to inhibit the activation of IFN-β promoter. Thus, we hypothesize that NSs function(s) can be abolished by truncation of specific domains, and co-expression of nonfunctional NSs with intact NSs will result in the attenuation of NSs function by dominant-negative effect. Unexpectedly, we found that RVFV NSs truncated at aa. 6–30, 31–55, 56–80, 81–105, 106–130, 131–155, 156–180, 181–205, 206–230, 231–248 or 249–265 lack functions of IFN–β mRNA synthesis inhibition and degradation of PKR. Truncated NSs were less stable in infected cells, while nuclear localization was inhibited in NSs lacking either of aa.81–105, 106–130, 131–155, 156–180, 181–205, 206–230 or 231–248. Furthermore, none of truncated NSs had exhibited significant dominant-negative functions for NSs-mediated IFN-β suppression or PKR degradation upon co-expression in cells infected with RVFV. We also found that any of truncated NSs except for intact NSs does not interact with RVFV NSs even in the presence of intact C-terminus self-association domain. Our results suggest that conformational integrity of NSs is important for the stability, cellular localization and biological functions of RVFV NSs, and the co-expression of truncated NSs does not exhibit dominant-negative phenotype. PMID:23029207

QNB: differential RNA methylation analysis for count-based small-sample sequencing data with a quad-negative binomial model.

PubMed

Liu, Lian; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Huang, Yufei; Meng, Jia

2017-08-31

As a newly emerged research area, RNA epigenetics has drawn increasing attention recently for the participation of RNA methylation and other modifications in a number of crucial biological processes. Thanks to high throughput sequencing techniques, such as, MeRIP-Seq, transcriptome-wide RNA methylation profile is now available in the form of count-based data, with which it is often of interests to study the dynamics at epitranscriptomic layer. However, the sample size of RNA methylation experiment is usually very small due to its costs; and additionally, there usually exist a large number of genes whose methylation level cannot be accurately estimated due to their low expression level, making differential RNA methylation analysis a difficult task. We present QNB, a statistical approach for differential RNA methylation analysis with count-based small-sample sequencing data. Compared with previous approaches such as DRME model based on a statistical test covering the IP samples only with 2 negative binomial distributions, QNB is based on 4 independent negative binomial distributions with their variances and means linked by local regressions, and in the way, the input control samples are also properly taken care of. In addition, different from DRME approach, which relies only the input control sample only for estimating the background, QNB uses a more robust estimator for gene expression by combining information from both input and IP samples, which could largely improve the testing performance for very lowly expressed genes. QNB showed improved performance on both simulated and real MeRIP-Seq datasets when compared with competing algorithms. And the QNB model is also applicable to other datasets related RNA modifications, including but not limited to RNA bisulfite sequencing, m 1 A-Seq, Par-CLIP, RIP-Seq, etc.

An analytical framework for estimating aquatic species density from environmental DNA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambert, Thierry; Pilliod, David S.; Goldberg, Caren S.; Doi, Hideyuki; Takahara, Teruhiko

2018-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis of water samples is on the brink of becoming a standard monitoring method for aquatic species. This method has improved detection rates over conventional survey methods and thus has demonstrated effectiveness for estimation of site occupancy and species distribution. The frontier of eDNA applications, however, is to infer species density. Building upon previous studies, we present and assess a modeling approach that aims at inferring animal density from eDNA. The modeling combines eDNA and animal count data from a subset of sites to estimate species density (and associated uncertainties) at other sites where only eDNA data are available. As a proof of concept, we first perform a cross-validation study using experimental data on carp in mesocosms. In these data, fish densities are known without error, which allows us to test the performance of the method with known data. We then evaluate the model using field data from a study on a stream salamander species to assess the potential of this method to work in natural settings, where density can never be known with absolute certainty. Two alternative distributions (Normal and Negative Binomial) to model variability in eDNA concentration data are assessed. Assessment based on the proof of concept data (carp) revealed that the Negative Binomial model provided much more accurate estimates than the model based on a Normal distribution, likely because eDNA data tend to be overdispersed. Greater imprecision was found when we applied the method to the field data, but the Negative Binomial model still provided useful density estimates. We call for further model development in this direction, as well as further research targeted at sampling design optimization. It will be important to assess these approaches on a broad range of study systems.

Regular exercise and related factors in patients with Parkinson's disease: Applying zero-inflated negative binomial modeling of exercise count data.

PubMed

Lee, JuHee; Park, Chang Gi; Choi, Moonki

2016-05-01

This study was conducted to identify risk factors that influence regular exercise among patients with Parkinson's disease in Korea. Parkinson's disease is prevalent in the elderly, and may lead to a sedentary lifestyle. Exercise can enhance physical and psychological health. However, patients with Parkinson's disease are less likely to exercise than are other populations due to physical disability. A secondary data analysis and cross-sectional descriptive study were conducted. A convenience sample of 106 patients with Parkinson's disease was recruited at an outpatient neurology clinic of a tertiary hospital in Korea. Demographic characteristics, disease-related characteristics (including disease duration and motor symptoms), self-efficacy for exercise, balance, and exercise level were investigated. Negative binomial regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression for exercise count data were utilized to determine factors involved in exercise. The mean age of participants was 65.85 ± 8.77 years, and the mean duration of Parkinson's disease was 7.23 ± 6.02 years. Most participants indicated that they engaged in regular exercise (80.19%). Approximately half of participants exercised at least 5 days per week for 30 min, as recommended (51.9%). Motor symptoms were a significant predictor of exercise in the count model, and self-efficacy for exercise was a significant predictor of exercise in the zero model. Severity of motor symptoms was related to frequency of exercise. Self-efficacy contributed to the probability of exercise. Symptom management and improvement of self-efficacy for exercise are important to encourage regular exercise in patients with Parkinson's disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors Associated with Hospital Length of Stay among Cancer Patients with Febrile Neutropenia

PubMed Central

Rosa, Regis G.; Goldani, Luciano Z.

2014-01-01

Purpose This study sought to evaluate factors associated with hospital length of stay in cancer patients with febrile neutropenia. Methods A prospective cohort study was performed at a single tertiary referral hospital in southern Brazil from October 2009 to August 2011. All adult cancer patients with febrile neutropenia admitted to the hematology ward were evaluated. Stepwise random-effects negative binomial regression was performed to identify risk factors for prolonged length of hospital stay. Results In total, 307 cases of febrile neutropenia were evaluated. The overall median length of hospital stay was 16 days (interquartile range 18 days). According to multiple negative binomial regression analysis, hematologic neoplasms (P = 0.003), high-dose chemotherapy regimens (P<0.001), duration of neutropenia (P<0.001), and bloodstream infection involving Gram-negative multi-drug-resistant bacteria (P = 0.003) were positively associated with prolonged hospital length of stay in patients with febrile neutropenia. The condition index showed no evidence of multi-collinearity effect among the independent variables. Conclusions Hematologic neoplasms, high-dose chemotherapy regimens, prolonged periods of neutropenia, and bloodstream infection with Gram-negative multi-drug-resistant bacteria are predictors of prolonged length hospital of stay among adult cancer patients with febrile neutropenia. PMID:25285790

Finding consistent patterns: A nonparametric approach for identifying differential expression in RNA-Seq data

PubMed Central

Li, Jun; Tibshirani, Robert

2015-01-01

We discuss the identification of features that are associated with an outcome in RNA-Sequencing (RNA-Seq) and other sequencing-based comparative genomic experiments. RNA-Seq data takes the form of counts, so models based on the normal distribution are generally unsuitable. The problem is especially challenging because different sequencing experiments may generate quite different total numbers of reads, or ‘sequencing depths’. Existing methods for this problem are based on Poisson or negative binomial models: they are useful but can be heavily influenced by ‘outliers’ in the data. We introduce a simple, nonparametric method with resampling to account for the different sequencing depths. The new method is more robust than parametric methods. It can be applied to data with quantitative, survival, two-class or multiple-class outcomes. We compare our proposed method to Poisson and negative binomial-based methods in simulated and real data sets, and find that our method discovers more consistent patterns than competing methods. PMID:22127579

Equity in health services use and intensity of use in Canada

PubMed Central

Asada, Yukiko; Kephart, George

2007-01-01

Background The Canadian health care system has striven to remove financial or other barriers to access to medically necessary health care services since the establishment of the Canada Health Act 20 years ago. Evidence has been conflicting as to what extent the Canadian health care system has met this goal of equitable access. The objective of this study was to examine whether and where socioeconomic inequities in health care utilization occur in Canada. Methods We used a nationally representative cross-sectional survey, the 2000/01 Canadian Community Health Survey, which provides a large sample size (about 110,000) and permits more comprehensive adjustment for need indicators than previous studies. We separately examined general practitioner, specialist, and hospital services using two-part hurdle models: use versus non-use by logistic regression, and the intensity of use among users by zero-truncated negative binomial regression. Results We found that lower income was associated with less contact with general practitioners, but among those who had contact, lower income and education were associated with greater intensity of use of general practitioners. Both lower income and education were associated with less contact with specialists, but there was no statistically significant relationship between these socioeconomic variables and intensity of specialist use among the users. Neither income nor education was statistically significantly associated with use or intensity of use of hospitals. Conclusion Our study unveiled possible socioeconomic inequities in the use of health care services in Canada. PMID:17349059

Intraurban Differences in the Use of Ambulatory Health Services in a Large Brazilian City

PubMed Central

Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Proietti, Fernando Augusto; Cesar, Cibele C.; Macinko, James

2010-01-01

A major goal of health systems is to reduce inequities in access to services, that is, to ensure that health care is provided based on health needs rather than social or economic factors. This study aims to identify the determinants of health services utilization among adults in a large Brazilian city and intraurban disparities in health care use. We combine household survey data with census-derived classification of social vulnerability of each household’s census tract. The dependent variable was utilization of physician services in the prior 12 months, and the independent variables included predisposing factors, health needs, enabling factors, and context. Prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated by the Hurdle regression model, which combined Poisson regression analysis of factors associated with any doctor visits (dichotomous variable) and zero-truncated negative binomial regression for the analysis of factors associated with the number of visits among those who had at least one. Results indicate that the use of health services was greater among women and increased with age, and was determined primarily by health needs and whether the individual had a regular doctor, even among those living in areas of the city with the worst socio-environmental indicators. The experience of Belo Horizonte may have implications for other world cities, particularly in the development and use of a comprehensive index to identify populations at risk and in order to guide expansion of primary health care services as a means of enhancing equity in health. PMID:21104332

The coefficient of determination R2 and intra-class correlation coefficient from generalized linear mixed-effects models revisited and expanded.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Shinichi; Johnson, Paul C D; Schielzeth, Holger

2017-09-01

The coefficient of determination R 2 quantifies the proportion of variance explained by a statistical model and is an important summary statistic of biological interest. However, estimating R 2 for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) remains challenging. We have previously introduced a version of R 2 that we called [Formula: see text] for Poisson and binomial GLMMs, but not for other distributional families. Similarly, we earlier discussed how to estimate intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) using Poisson and binomial GLMMs. In this paper, we generalize our methods to all other non-Gaussian distributions, in particular to negative binomial and gamma distributions that are commonly used for modelling biological data. While expanding our approach, we highlight two useful concepts for biologists, Jensen's inequality and the delta method, both of which help us in understanding the properties of GLMMs. Jensen's inequality has important implications for biologically meaningful interpretation of GLMMs, whereas the delta method allows a general derivation of variance associated with non-Gaussian distributions. We also discuss some special considerations for binomial GLMMs with binary or proportion data. We illustrate the implementation of our extension by worked examples from the field of ecology and evolution in the R environment. However, our method can be used across disciplines and regardless of statistical environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

School Violence: The Role of Parental and Community Involvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lesneskie, Eric; Block, Steven

2017-01-01

This study utilizes the School Survey on Crime and Safety to identify variables that predict lower levels of violence from four domains: school security, school climate, parental involvement, and community involvement. Negative binomial regression was performed and the findings indicate that statistically significant results come from all four…

Predicting Children's Asthma Hospitalizations: Rural and Urban Differences in Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grineski, Sara E.

2009-01-01

Asthma is the number one chronic health condition facing children today; however, little is known about rural-urban inequalities in asthma. This "area effects on health" study examines rural-urban differences in childhood asthma hospitalizations within the state of Texas using negative binomial regression models. Effects associated with…

An Alternate Approach to Alternating Sums: A Method to DIE for

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benjamin, Arthur T.; Quinn, Jennifer J.

2008-01-01

Positive sums count. Alternating sums match. Alternating sums of binomial coefficients, Fibonacci numbers, and other combinatorial quantities are analyzed using sign-reversing involutions. In particular, we describe the quantity being considered, match positive and negative terms through an Involution, and count the Exceptions to the matching rule…

Transportation safety data and analysis : Volume 2, Calibration of the highway safety manual and development of new safety performance functions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

This report documents the calibration of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) safety performance function (SPF) : for rural two-lane two-way roadway segments in Utah and the development of new models using negative : binomial and hierarchical Bayesian mod...

Novel nonsense mutation in the katA gene of a catalase-negative Staphylococcus aureus strain.

PubMed

Lagos, Jaime; Alarcón, Pedro; Benadof, Dona; Ulloa, Soledad; Fasce, Rodrigo; Tognarelli, Javier; Aguayo, Carolina; Araya, Pamela; Parra, Bárbara; Olivares, Berta; Hormazábal, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Jorge

2016-01-01

We report the first description of a rare catalase-negative strain of Staphylococcus aureus in Chile. This new variant was isolated from blood and synovial tissue samples of a pediatric patient. Sequencing analysis revealed that this catalase-negative strain is related to ST10 strain, which has earlier been described in relation to S. aureus carriers. Interestingly, sequence analysis of the catalase gene katA revealed presence of a novel nonsense mutation that causes premature translational truncation of the C-terminus of the enzyme leading to a loss of 222 amino acids. Our study suggests that loss of catalase activity in this rare catalase-negative Chilean strain is due to this novel nonsense mutation in the katA gene, which truncates the enzyme to just 283 amino acids. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Microbiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Ensemble Kalman filtering in presence of inequality constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Leeuwen, P. J.

2009-04-01

Kalman filtering is presence of constraints is an active area of research. Based on the Gaussian assumption for the probability-density functions, it looks hard to bring in extra constraints in the formalism. On the other hand, in geophysical systems we often encounter constraints related to e.g. the underlying physics or chemistry, which are violated by the Gaussian assumption. For instance, concentrations are always non-negative, model layers have non-negative thickness, and sea-ice concentration is between 0 and 1. Several methods to bring inequality constraints into the Kalman-filter formalism have been proposed. One of them is probability density function (pdf) truncation, in which the Gaussian mass from the non-allowed part of the variables is just equally distributed over the pdf where the variables are alolwed, as proposed by Shimada et al. 1998. However, a problem with this method is that the probability that e.g. the sea-ice concentration is zero, is zero! The new method proposed here does not have this drawback. It assumes that the probability-density function is a truncated Gaussian, but the truncated mass is not distributed equally over all allowed values of the variables, but put into a delta distribution at the truncation point. This delta distribution can easily be handled with in Bayes theorem, leading to posterior probability density functions that are also truncated Gaussians with delta distributions at the truncation location. In this way a much better representation of the system is obtained, while still keeping most of the benefits of the Kalman-filter formalism. In the full Kalman filter the formalism is prohibitively expensive in large-scale systems, but efficient implementation is possible in ensemble variants of the kalman filter. Applications to low-dimensional systems and large-scale systems will be discussed.

General Strain Theory as a Basis for the Design of School Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moon, Byongook; Morash, Merry

2013-01-01

The research described in this article applies general strain theory to identify possible points of intervention for reducing delinquency of students in two middle schools. Data were collected from 296 youths, and separate negative binomial regression analyses were used to identify predictors of violent, property, and status delinquency. Emotional…

A New Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Methodology for Latent Category Identification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanchard, Simon J.; DeSarbo, Wayne S.

2013-01-01

We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic…

The Effectiveness of an Electronic Security Management System in a Privately Owned Apartment Complex

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenberg, David F.; Roush, Jeffrey B.

2009-01-01

Poisson and negative binomial regression methods are used to analyze the monthly time series data to determine the effects of introducing an integrated security management system including closed-circuit television (CCTV), door alarm monitoring, proximity card access, and emergency call boxes to a large privately-owned complex of apartment…

Socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; Dale, Pat; McMichael, Anthony J; Tong, Shilu

2009-02-01

To assess the socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus (BFV) transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia. Data on BFV notified cases, climate, tidal levels and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA) in six coastal cities, Queensland, for the period 1992-2001 were obtained from the relevant government agencies. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the socio-environmental predictors of BFV transmission. The results show that maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, high and low tide were statistically significantly associated with BFV incidence at lags 0-2 months. The fitted negative binomial regression models indicate a significant independent association of each of maximum temperature (beta = 0.139, P = 0.000), high tide (beta = 0.005, P = 0.000) and SEIFA index (beta = -0.010, P = 0.000) with BFV transmission after adjustment for confounding variables. The transmission of BFV disease in Queensland coastal areas seemed to be determined by a combination of local social and environmental factors. The model developed in this study may have applications in the control and prevention of BFV disease in these areas.

Mental health status and healthcare utilization among community dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Adepoju, Omolola; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Mileski, Michael; Kruse, Clemens Scott; Mask, Andrew

2018-04-27

Shifts in mental health utilization patterns are necessary to allow for meaningful access to care for vulnerable populations. There have been long standing issues in how mental health is provided, which has caused problems in that care being efficacious for those seeking it. To assess the relationship between mental health status and healthcare utilization among adults ≥65 years. A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between mental health status and healthcare utilization related to office-based physician visits, while a two-part model, consisting of logistic regression and negative binomial regression, was used to separately model emergency visits and inpatient services. The receipt of care in office-based settings were marginally higher for subjects with mental health difficulties. Both probabilities and counts of inpatient hospitalizations were similar across mental health categories. The count of ER visits was similar across mental health categories; however, the probability of having an emergency department visit was marginally higher for older adults who reported mental health difficulties in 2012. These findings are encouraging and lend promise to the recent initiatives on addressing gaps in mental healthcare services.

Statistical models for RNA-seq data derived from a two-condition 48-replicate experiment.

PubMed

Gierliński, Marek; Cole, Christian; Schofield, Pietà; Schurch, Nicholas J; Sherstnev, Alexander; Singh, Vijender; Wrobel, Nicola; Gharbi, Karim; Simpson, Gordon; Owen-Hughes, Tom; Blaxter, Mark; Barton, Geoffrey J

2015-11-15

High-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) is now the standard method to determine differential gene expression. Identifying differentially expressed genes crucially depends on estimates of read-count variability. These estimates are typically based on statistical models such as the negative binomial distribution, which is employed by the tools edgeR, DESeq and cuffdiff. Until now, the validity of these models has usually been tested on either low-replicate RNA-seq data or simulations. A 48-replicate RNA-seq experiment in yeast was performed and data tested against theoretical models. The observed gene read counts were consistent with both log-normal and negative binomial distributions, while the mean-variance relation followed the line of constant dispersion parameter of ∼0.01. The high-replicate data also allowed for strict quality control and screening of 'bad' replicates, which can drastically affect the gene read-count distribution. RNA-seq data have been submitted to ENA archive with project ID PRJEB5348. g.j.barton@dundee.ac.uk. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Analysis of overdispersed count data: application to the Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men (HIM) Study.

PubMed

Lee, J-H; Han, G; Fulp, W J; Giuliano, A R

2012-06-01

The Poisson model can be applied to the count of events occurring within a specific time period. The main feature of the Poisson model is the assumption that the mean and variance of the count data are equal. However, this equal mean-variance relationship rarely occurs in observational data. In most cases, the observed variance is larger than the assumed variance, which is called overdispersion. Further, when the observed data involve excessive zero counts, the problem of overdispersion results in underestimating the variance of the estimated parameter, and thus produces a misleading conclusion. We illustrated the use of four models for overdispersed count data that may be attributed to excessive zeros. These are Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial models. The example data in this article deal with the number of incidents involving human papillomavirus infection. The four models resulted in differing statistical inferences. The Poisson model, which is widely used in epidemiology research, underestimated the standard errors and overstated the significance of some covariates.

Statistical models for RNA-seq data derived from a two-condition 48-replicate experiment

PubMed Central

Cole, Christian; Schofield, Pietà; Schurch, Nicholas J.; Sherstnev, Alexander; Singh, Vijender; Wrobel, Nicola; Gharbi, Karim; Simpson, Gordon; Owen-Hughes, Tom; Blaxter, Mark; Barton, Geoffrey J.

2015-01-01

Motivation: High-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) is now the standard method to determine differential gene expression. Identifying differentially expressed genes crucially depends on estimates of read-count variability. These estimates are typically based on statistical models such as the negative binomial distribution, which is employed by the tools edgeR, DESeq and cuffdiff. Until now, the validity of these models has usually been tested on either low-replicate RNA-seq data or simulations. Results: A 48-replicate RNA-seq experiment in yeast was performed and data tested against theoretical models. The observed gene read counts were consistent with both log-normal and negative binomial distributions, while the mean-variance relation followed the line of constant dispersion parameter of ∼0.01. The high-replicate data also allowed for strict quality control and screening of ‘bad’ replicates, which can drastically affect the gene read-count distribution. Availability and implementation: RNA-seq data have been submitted to ENA archive with project ID PRJEB5348. Contact: g.j.barton@dundee.ac.uk PMID:26206307

Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhu; Shuangge, Ma; Wang, Ching-Yun

2017-01-01

In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using an open-source R package mpath. PMID:26059498

Simplified pupal surveys of Aedes aegypti (L.) for entomologic surveillance and dengue control.

PubMed

Barrera, Roberto

2009-07-01

Pupal surveys of Aedes aegypti (L.) are useful indicators of risk for dengue transmission, although sample sizes for reliable estimations can be large. This study explores two methods for making pupal surveys more practical yet reliable and used data from 10 pupal surveys conducted in Puerto Rico during 2004-2008. The number of pupae per person for each sampling followed a negative binomial distribution, thus showing aggregation. One method found a common aggregation parameter (k) for the negative binomial distribution, a finding that enabled the application of a sequential sampling method requiring few samples to determine whether the number of pupae/person was above a vector density threshold for dengue transmission. A second approach used the finding that the mean number of pupae/person is correlated with the proportion of pupa-infested households and calculated equivalent threshold proportions of pupa-positive households. A sequential sampling program was also developed for this method to determine whether observed proportions of infested households were above threshold levels. These methods can be used to validate entomological thresholds for dengue transmission.

Modeling left-turn crash occurrence at signalized intersections by conflicting patterns.

PubMed

Wang, Xuesong; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2008-01-01

In order to better understand the underlying crash mechanisms, left-turn crashes occurring at 197 four-legged signalized intersections over 6 years were classified into nine patterns based on vehicle maneuvers and then were assigned to intersection approaches. Crash frequency of each pattern was modeled at the approach level by mainly using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) with the Negative Binomial as the link function to account for the correlation among the crash data. GEE with a binomial logit link function was also applied for patterns with fewer crashes. The Cumulative Residuals test shows that, for correlated left-turn crashes, GEE models usually outperformed basic Negative Binomial models. The estimation results show that there are obvious differences in the factors that cause the occurrence of different left-turn collision patterns. For example, for each pattern, the traffic flows to which the colliding vehicles belong are identified to be significant. The width of the crossing distance (represented by the number of through lanes on the opposing approach of the left-turning traffic) is associated with more left-turn traffic colliding with opposing through traffic (Pattern 5), but with less left-turning traffic colliding with near-side crossing through traffic (Pattern 8). The safety effectiveness of the left-turning signal is not consistent for different crash patterns; "protected" phasing is correlated with fewer Pattern 5 crashes, but with more Pattern 8 crashes. The study indicates that in order to develop efficient countermeasures for left-turn crashes and improve safety at signalized intersections, left-turn crashes should be considered in different patterns.

Relationship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People's Republic of China: 2004-2013.

PubMed

Yin, Honglei; Xu, Lin; Shao, Yechang; Li, Liping; Wan, Chengsong

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People's Republic of China. Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People's Republic of China during the period 2004-2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation. Variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) was also included as an economic index to measure the fluctuation of the stock market. Negative binomial regression was performed to examine the time trend of region-level suicide rates and effects of sex, age, urban/rural area, region, and economic index on the suicide rates. Suicide rates of each age-group, sex, urban/rural area, and region were generally decreased from 2004 to 2013, while annual GDP per capita and rural and urban income per capita were generally increased by year. VCMI fluctuated largely, which peaked around 2009 and decreased after that time. Negative binomial regression showed that the decreased suicide rate in East and Central rural areas was the main cause of the decrease in suicide rate in the People's Republic of China. Suicide rate in the People's Republic of China for the study period increased with age and was higher in rural than in urban area, higher in males than in females, and the highest in the Central region. When GDP per capita increased by 2,787 RMB, the suicide rate decreased by 0.498 times. VCMI showed no significant relationship with suicide rate in the negative binomial regression. Suicide rate decreased in 2004-2013; varied among different age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions; and was negatively associated with the economic growth in the People's Republic of China. Stock market showed no relationship with suicide rate, but this finding needs to be verified in a future study.

Relationship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People’s Republic of China: 2004–2013

PubMed Central

Yin, Honglei; Xu, Lin; Shao, Yechang; Li, Liping; Wan, Chengsong

2016-01-01

Objectives The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People’s Republic of China. Methods Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People’s Republic of China during the period 2004–2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation. Variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) was also included as an economic index to measure the fluctuation of the stock market. Negative binomial regression was performed to examine the time trend of region-level suicide rates and effects of sex, age, urban/rural area, region, and economic index on the suicide rates. Results Suicide rates of each age-group, sex, urban/rural area, and region were generally decreased from 2004 to 2013, while annual GDP per capita and rural and urban income per capita were generally increased by year. VCMI fluctuated largely, which peaked around 2009 and decreased after that time. Negative binomial regression showed that the decreased suicide rate in East and Central rural areas was the main cause of the decrease in suicide rate in the People’s Republic of China. Suicide rate in the People’s Republic of China for the study period increased with age and was higher in rural than in urban area, higher in males than in females, and the highest in the Central region. When GDP per capita increased by 2,787 RMB, the suicide rate decreased by 0.498 times. VCMI showed no significant relationship with suicide rate in the negative binomial regression. Conclusion Suicide rate decreased in 2004–2013; varied among different age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions; and was negatively associated with the economic growth in the People’s Republic of China. Stock market showed no relationship with suicide rate, but this finding needs to be verified in a future study. PMID:27994468

Estimating safety effects of pavement management factors utilizing Bayesian random effect models.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Huang, Baoshan; Zaretzki, Russell L; Richards, Stephen; Yan, Xuedong

2013-01-01

Previous studies of pavement management factors that relate to the occurrence of traffic-related crashes are rare. Traditional research has mostly employed summary statistics of bidirectional pavement quality measurements in extended longitudinal road segments over a long time period, which may cause a loss of important information and result in biased parameter estimates. The research presented in this article focuses on crash risk of roadways with overall fair to good pavement quality. Real-time and location-specific data were employed to estimate the effects of pavement management factors on the occurrence of crashes. This research is based on the crash data and corresponding pavement quality data for the Tennessee state route highways from 2004 to 2009. The potential temporal and spatial correlations among observations caused by unobserved factors were considered. Overall 6 models were built accounting for no correlation, temporal correlation only, and both the temporal and spatial correlations. These models included Poisson, negative binomial (NB), one random effect Poisson and negative binomial (OREP, ORENB), and two random effect Poisson and negative binomial (TREP, TRENB) models. The Bayesian method was employed to construct these models. The inference is based on the posterior distribution from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. These models were compared using the deviance information criterion. Analysis of the posterior distribution of parameter coefficients indicates that the pavement management factors indexed by Present Serviceability Index (PSI) and Pavement Distress Index (PDI) had significant impacts on the occurrence of crashes, whereas the variable rutting depth was not significant. Among other factors, lane width, median width, type of terrain, and posted speed limit were significant in affecting crash frequency. The findings of this study indicate that a reduction in pavement roughness would reduce the likelihood of traffic-related crashes. Hence, maintaining a low level of pavement roughness is strongly suggested. In addition, the results suggested that the temporal correlation among observations was significant and that the ORENB model outperformed all other models.

Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Martin, Juulien; Edwards, Holly H.

2013-01-01

The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts.

PubMed

Dorazio, Robert M; Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H

2013-07-01

The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

Perceived Prevalence of Teasing and Bullying Predicts High School Dropout Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornell, Dewey; Gregory, Anne; Huang, Francis; Fan, Xitao

2013-01-01

This prospective study of 276 Virginia public high schools found that the prevalence of teasing and bullying (PTB) as perceived by both 9th-grade students and teachers was predictive of dropout rates for this cohort 4 years later. Negative binomial regression indicated that one standard deviation increases in student- and teacher-reported PTB were…

The Influence of Television Advertisements on Promoting Calls to Telephone Quitlines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farrelly, Matthew; Mann, Nathan; Watson, Kimberly; Pechacek, Terry

2013-01-01

The aim of the study was to assess the relative effectiveness of cessation, secondhand smoke and other tobacco control television advertisements in promoting quitlines in nine states from 2002 through 2005. Quarterly, the number of individuals who used quitlines per 10 000 adult smokers in a media market are measured. Negative binomial regression…

Modeling Zero-Inflated and Overdispersed Count Data: An Empirical Study of School Suspensions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Desjardins, Christopher David

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to develop a statistical model that best explains variability in the number of school days suspended. Number of school days suspended is a count variable that may be zero-inflated and overdispersed relative to a Poisson model. Four models were examined: Poisson, negative binomial, Poisson hurdle, and negative…

Statistical Characterization of Altitude Matrices by Computer. Report 4. Frequency Distributions of Gradient.

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-01-01

balanced at the mean, with the central part steeper ( platykurtic : broad mode or truncated tails) -r flatter (leptokurtic: peaked mode or extended...and NUPUR, have negative kurtosis (they are platykurtic , with truncated tails and/or broad modes relative to their standard deviations) FERRO, on the...the other areas, and its gradients are platykurtic but almost unskewed. Hence the square root of sine transformation (Fig,15) and the log tangent

Measuring women's cumulative neighborhood deprivation exposure using longitudinally linked vital records: a method for life course MCH research.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael R; Dunlop, Anne L; Hogue, Carol J R

2014-02-01

A life course conceptual framework for MCH research demands new tools for understanding population health and measuring exposures. We propose a method for measuring population-based socio-environmental trajectories for women of reproductive age. We merged maternal longitudinally-linked births to Georgia-resident women from 1994 to 2007 with census economic and social measures using residential geocodes to create woman-centered socio-environmental trajectories. We calculated a woman's neighborhood deprivation index (NDI) at the time of each of her births and, from these, we calculated a cumulative NDI. We fit Loess curves to describe average life course NDI trajectories and binomial regression models to test specific life course theory hypotheses relating cumulative NDI to risk for preterm birth. Of the 1,815,944 total live births, we linked 1,000,437 live births to 413,048 unique women with two or more births. Record linkage had high specificity but relatively low sensitivity which appears non-differential with respect to maternal characteristics. Georgia women on average experienced upward mobility across the life course, although differences by race, early life neighborhood quality, and age at first birth produced differences in cumulative NDI. Adjusted binomial models found evidence for modification of the effect of history of prior preterm birth and advancing age on risk for preterm birth by cumulative NDI. The creation of trajectories from geocoded maternal longitudinally-linked vital records is one method to carry out life course MCH research. We discuss approaches for investigating the impact of truncation of the life course, selection bias from migration, and misclassification of cumulative exposure.

Molecular evolution of pentatricopeptide repeat genes reveals truncation in species lacking an editing target and structural domains under distinct selective pressures.

PubMed

Hayes, Michael L; Giang, Karolyn; Mulligan, R Michael

2012-05-14

Pentatricopeptide repeat (PPR) proteins are required for numerous RNA processing events in plant organelles including C-to-U editing, splicing, stabilization, and cleavage. Fifteen PPR proteins are known to be required for RNA editing at 21 sites in Arabidopsis chloroplasts, and belong to the PLS class of PPR proteins. In this study, we investigate the co-evolution of four PPR genes (CRR4, CRR21, CLB19, and OTP82) and their six editing targets in Brassicaceae species. PPR genes are composed of approximately 10 to 20 tandem repeats and each repeat has two α-helical regions, helix A and helix B, that are separated by short coil regions. Each repeat and structural feature was examined to determine the selective pressures on these regions. All of the PPR genes examined are under strong negative selection. Multiple independent losses of editing site targets are observed for both CRR21 and OTP82. In several species lacking the known editing target for CRR21, PPR genes are truncated near the 17th PPR repeat. The coding sequences of the truncated CRR21 genes are maintained under strong negative selection; however, the 3' UTR sequences beyond the truncation site have substantially diverged. Phylogenetic analyses of four PPR genes show that sequences corresponding to helix A are high compared to helix B sequences. Differential evolutionary selection of helix A versus helix B is observed in both plant and mammalian PPR genes. PPR genes and their cognate editing sites are mutually constrained in evolution. Editing sites are frequently lost by replacement of an edited C with a genomic T. After the loss of an editing site, the PPR genes are observed with three outcomes: first, few changes are detected in some cases; second, the PPR gene is present as a pseudogene; and third, the PPR gene is present but truncated in the C-terminal region. The retention of truncated forms of CRR21 that are maintained under strong negative selection even in the absence of an editing site target suggests that unrecognized function(s) might exist for this PPR protein. PPR gene sequences that encode helix A are under strong selection, and could be involved in RNA substrate recognition.

Some considerations for excess zeroes in substance abuse research.

PubMed

Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; DeSantis, Stacia M; Korte, Jeffrey E; Brady, Kathleen T

2011-09-01

Count data collected in substance abuse research often come with an excess of "zeroes," which are typically handled using zero-inflated regression models. However, there is a need to consider the design aspects of those studies before using such a statistical model to ascertain the sources of zeroes. We sought to illustrate hurdle models as alternatives to zero-inflated models to validate a two-stage decision-making process in situations of "excess zeroes." We use data from a study of 45 cocaine-dependent subjects where the primary scientific question was to evaluate whether study participation influences drug-seeking behavior. The outcome, "the frequency (count) of cocaine use days per week," is bounded (ranging from 0 to 7). We fit and compare binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, and the hurdle version of these models to study the effect of gender, age, time, and study participation on cocaine use. The hurdle binomial model provides the best fit. Gender and time are not predictive of use. Higher odds of use versus no use are associated with age; however once use is experienced, odds of further use decrease with increase in age. Participation was associated with higher odds of no-cocaine use; once there is use, participation reduced the odds of further use. Age and study participation are significantly predictive of cocaine-use behavior. The two-stage decision process as modeled by a hurdle binomial model (appropriate for bounded count data with excess zeroes) provides interesting insights into the study of covariate effects on count responses of substance use, when all enrolled subjects are believed to be "at-risk" of use.

Spatial Distribution of Adult Anthonomus grandis Boheman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) and Damage to Cotton Flower Buds Due to Feeding and Oviposition.

PubMed

Grigolli, J F J; Souza, L A; Fernandes, M G; Busoli, A C

2017-08-01

The cotton boll weevil Anthonomus grandis Boheman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is the main pest in cotton crop around the world, directly affecting cotton production. In order to establish a sequential sampling plan, it is crucial to understand the spatial distribution of the pest population and the damage it causes to the crop through the different developmental stages of cotton plants. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of adults in the cultivation area and their oviposition and feeding behavior throughout the development of the cotton plants. The experiment was conducted in Maracaju, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, in the 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 growing seasons, in an area of 10,000 m 2 , planted with the cotton cultivar FM 993. The experimental area was divided into 100 plots of 100 m 2 (10 × 10 m) each, and five plants per plot were sampled weekly throughout the crop cycle. The number of flower buds with feeding and oviposition punctures and of adult A. grandis was recorded throughout the crop cycle in five plants per plot. After determining the aggregation indices (variance/mean ratio, Morisita's index, exponent k of the negative binomial distribution, and Green's coefficient) and adjusting the frequencies observed in the field to the distribution of frequencies (Poisson, negative binomial, and positive binomial) using the chi-squared test, it was observed that flower buds with punctures derived from feeding, oviposition, and feeding + oviposition showed an aggregated distribution in the cultivation area until 85 days after emergence and a random distribution after this stage. The adults of A. grandis presented a random distribution in the cultivation area.

[Spatial epidemiological study on malaria epidemics in Hainan province].

PubMed

Wen, Liang; Shi, Run-He; Fang, Li-Qun; Xu, De-Zhong; Li, Cheng-Yi; Wang, Yong; Yuan, Zheng-Quan; Zhang, Hui

2008-06-01

To better understand the characteristics of spatial distribution of malaria epidemics in Hainan province and to explore the relationship between malaria epidemics and environmental factors, as well to develop prediction model on malaria epidemics. Data on Malaria and meteorological factors were collected in all 19 counties in Hainan province from May to Oct., 2000, and the proportion of land use types of these counties in this period were extracted from digital map of land use in Hainan province. Land surface temperatures (LST) were extracted from MODIS images and elevations of these counties were extracted from DEM of Hainan province. The coefficients of correlation of malaria incidences and these environmental factors were then calculated with SPSS 13.0, and negative binomial regression analysis were done using SAS 9.0. The incidence of malaria showed (1) positive correlations to elevation, proportion of forest land area and grassland area; (2) negative correlations to the proportion of cultivated area, urban and rural residents and to industrial enterprise area, LST; (3) no correlations to meteorological factors, proportion of water area, and unemployed land area. The prediction model of malaria which came from negative binomial regression analysis was: I (monthly, unit: 1/1,000,000) = exp (-1.672-0.399xLST). Spatial distribution of malaria epidemics was associated with some environmental factors, and prediction model of malaria epidemic could be developed with indexes which extracted from satellite remote sensing images.

Single-vehicle crashes along rural mountainous highways in Malaysia: An application of random parameters negative binomial model.

PubMed

Rusli, Rusdi; Haque, Md Mazharul; King, Mark; Voon, Wong Shaw

2017-05-01

Mountainous highways generally associate with complex driving environment because of constrained road geometries, limited cross-section elements, inappropriate roadside features, and adverse weather conditions. As a result, single-vehicle (SV) crashes are overrepresented along mountainous roads, particularly in developing countries, but little attention is known about the roadway geometric, traffic and weather factors contributing to these SV crashes. As such, the main objective of the present study is to investigate SV crashes using detailed data obtained from a rigorous site survey and existing databases. The final dataset included a total of 56 variables representing road geometries including horizontal and vertical alignment, traffic characteristics, real-time weather condition, cross-sectional elements, roadside features, and spatial characteristics. To account for structured heterogeneities resulting from multiple observations within a site and other unobserved heterogeneities, the study applied a random parameters negative binomial model. Results suggest that rainfall during the crash is positively associated with SV crashes, but real-time visibility is negatively associated. The presence of a road shoulder, particularly a bitumen shoulder or wider shoulders, along mountainous highways is associated with less SV crashes. While speeding along downgrade slopes increases the likelihood of SV crashes, proper delineation decreases the likelihood. Findings of this study have significant implications for designing safer highways in mountainous areas, particularly in the context of a developing country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Model Comparison for Count Data with a Positively Skewed Distribution with an Application to the Number of University Mathematics Courses Completed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liou, Pey-Yan

2009-01-01

The current study examines three regression models: OLS (ordinary least square) linear regression, Poisson regression, and negative binomial regression for analyzing count data. Simulation results show that the OLS regression model performed better than the others, since it did not produce more false statistically significant relationships than…

A Negative Binomial Regression Model for Accuracy Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hung, Lai-Fa

2012-01-01

Rasch used a Poisson model to analyze errors and speed in reading tests. An important property of the Poisson distribution is that the mean and variance are equal. However, in social science research, it is very common for the variance to be greater than the mean (i.e., the data are overdispersed). This study embeds the Rasch model within an…

Which Types of Televised Anti-Tobacco Campaigns Prompt More Quitline Calls from Disadvantaged Groups?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durkin, Sarah J.; Wakefield, Melanie A.; Spittal, Matthew J.

2011-01-01

To examine the efficacy of different types of mass media ads in driving lower socio-economic smokers (SES) to utilize quitlines. This study collected all 33 719 calls to the Victorian quitline in Australia over a 2-year period. Negative binomial regressions examined the relationship between weekly levels of exposure to different types of…

Togetherness among Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes: interpretation through simulation and consequences for malaria transmission.

PubMed

Gaillard, F O; Boudin, C; Chau, N P; Robert, V; Pichon, G

2003-11-01

Previous experimental gametocyte infections of Anopheles arabiensis on 3 volunteers naturally infected with Plasmodium falciparum were conducted in Senegal. They showed that gametocyte counts in the mosquitoes are, like macroparasite intakes, heterogeneous (overdispersed). They followed a negative binomial distribution, the overdispersion coefficient seeming constant (k = 3.1). To try to explain this heterogeneity, we used an individual-based model (IBM), simulating the behaviour of gametocytes in the human blood circulation and their ingestion by mosquitoes. The hypothesis was that there exists a clustering of the gametocytes in the capillaries. From a series of simulations, in the case of clustering the following results were obtained: (i) the distribution of the gametocytes ingested by the mosquitoes followed a negative binomial, (ii) the k coefficient significantly increased with the density of circulating gametocytes. To validate this model result, 2 more experiments were conducted in Cameroon. Pooled experiments showed a distinct density dependency of the k-values. The simulation results and the experimental results were thus in agreement and suggested that an aggregation process at the microscopic level might produce the density-dependent overdispersion at the macroscopic level. Simulations also suggested that the clustering of gametocytes might facilitate fertilization of gametes.

Effectiveness on Early Childhood Caries of an Oral Health Promotion Program for Medical Providers

PubMed Central

Widmer-Racich, Katina; Sevick, Carter; Starzyk, Erin J.; Mauritson, Katya; Hambidge, Simon J.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To assess an oral health promotion (OHP) intervention for medical providers’ impact on early childhood caries (ECC). Methods. We implemented a quasiexperimental OHP intervention in 8 federally qualified health centers that trained medical providers on ECC risk assessment, oral examination and instruction, dental referral, and fluoride varnish applications (FVAs). We measured OHP delivery by FVA count at medical visits. We measured the intervention’s impact on ECC in 3 unique cohorts of children aged 3 to 4 years in 2009 (preintervention; n = 202), 2011 (midintervention; n = 420), and 2015 (≥ 4 FVAs; n = 153). We compared numbers of decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces using adjusted zero-inflated negative binomial models. Results. Across 3 unique cohorts, the FVA mean (range) count was 0.0 (0), 1.1 (0–7), and 4.5 (4–7) in 2009, 2011, and 2015, respectively. In adjusted zero-inflated negative binomial models analyses, children in the 2015 cohort had significantly fewer decayed, missing, and filled tooth surfaces than did children in previous cohorts. Conclusions. An OHP intervention targeting medical providers reduced ECC when children received 4 or more FVAs at a medical visit by age 3 years. PMID:28661802

Co-Infestation and Spatial Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and Anastrepha spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Common Guava in the Eastern Amazon

PubMed Central

Deus, E. G.; Godoy, W. A. C.; Sousa, M. S. M.; Lopes, G. N.; Jesus-Barros, C. R.; Silva, J. G.; Adaime, R.

2016-01-01

Field infestation and spatial distribution of introduced Bactrocera carambolae Drew and Hancock and native species of Anastrepha in common guavas [Psidium guajava (L.)] were investigated in the eastern Amazon. Fruit sampling was carried out in the municipalities of Calçoene and Oiapoque in the state of Amapá, Brazil. The frequency distribution of larvae in fruit was fitted to the negative binomial distribution. Anastrepha striata was more abundant in both sampled areas in comparison to Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann) and B. carambolae. The frequency distribution analysis of adults revealed an aggregated pattern for B. carambolae as well as for A. fraterculus and Anastrepha striata Schiner, described by the negative binomial distribution. Although the populations of Anastrepha spp. may have suffered some impact due to the presence of B. carambolae, the results are still not robust enough to indicate effective reduction in the abundance of Anastrepha spp. caused by B. carambolae in a general sense. The high degree of aggregation observed for both species suggests interspecific co-occurrence with the simultaneous presence of both species in the analysed fruit. Moreover, a significant fraction of uninfested guavas also indicated absence of competitive displacement. PMID:27638949

The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero-inflated negative binomial model.

PubMed

Sheu, Mei-Ling; Hu, Teh-Wei; Keeler, Theodore E; Ong, Michael; Sung, Hai-Yen

2004-08-01

The objective of this paper is to determine the price sensitivity of smokers in their consumption of cigarettes, using evidence from a major increase in California cigarette prices due to Proposition 10 and the Tobacco Settlement. The study sample consists of individual survey data from Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (BRFS) and price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics between 1996 and 1999. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was applied for the statistical analysis. The statistical model showed that price did not have an effect on reducing the estimated prevalence of smoking. However, it indicated that among smokers the price elasticity was at the level of -0.46 and statistically significant. Since smoking prevalence is significantly lower than it was a decade ago, price increases are becoming less effective as an inducement for hard-core smokers to quit, although they may respond by decreasing consumption. For those who only smoke occasionally (many of them being young adults) price increases alone may not be an effective inducement to quit smoking. Additional underlying behavioral factors need to be identified so that more effective anti-smoking strategies can be developed.

A Time Series Analysis: Weather Factors, Human Migration and Malaria Cases in Endemic Area of Purworejo, Indonesia, 2005–2014

PubMed Central

REJEKI, Dwi Sarwani Sri; NURHAYATI, Nunung; AJI, Budi; MURHANDARWATI, E. Elsa Herdiana; KUSNANTO, Hari

2018-01-01

Background: Climatic and weather factors become important determinants of vector-borne diseases transmission like malaria. This study aimed to prove relationships between weather factors with considering human migration and previous case findings and malaria cases in endemic areas in Purworejo during 2005–2014. Methods: This study employed ecological time series analysis by using monthly data. The independent variables were the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, maximum humidity, minimum humidity, precipitation, human migration, and previous malaria cases, while the dependent variable was positive malaria cases. Three models of count data regression analysis i.e. Poisson model, quasi-Poisson model, and negative binomial model were applied to measure the relationship. The least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) value was also performed to find the best model. Negative binomial regression analysis was considered as the best model. Results: The model showed that humidity (lag 2), precipitation (lag 3), precipitation (lag 12), migration (lag1) and previous malaria cases (lag 12) had a significant relationship with malaria cases. Conclusion: Weather, migration and previous malaria cases factors need to be considered as prominent indicators for the increase of malaria case projection. PMID:29900134

Population heterogeneity in the salience of multiple risk factors for adolescent delinquency.

PubMed

Lanza, Stephanie T; Cooper, Brittany R; Bray, Bethany C

2014-03-01

To present mixture regression analysis as an alternative to more standard regression analysis for predicting adolescent delinquency. We demonstrate how mixture regression analysis allows for the identification of population subgroups defined by the salience of multiple risk factors. We identified population subgroups (i.e., latent classes) of individuals based on their coefficients in a regression model predicting adolescent delinquency from eight previously established risk indices drawn from the community, school, family, peer, and individual levels. The study included N = 37,763 10th-grade adolescents who participated in the Communities That Care Youth Survey. Standard, zero-inflated, and mixture Poisson and negative binomial regression models were considered. Standard and mixture negative binomial regression models were selected as optimal. The five-class regression model was interpreted based on the class-specific regression coefficients, indicating that risk factors had varying salience across classes of adolescents. Standard regression showed that all risk factors were significantly associated with delinquency. Mixture regression provided more nuanced information, suggesting a unique set of risk factors that were salient for different subgroups of adolescents. Implications for the design of subgroup-specific interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variable selection for zero-inflated and overdispersed data with application to health care demand in Germany.

PubMed

Wang, Zhu; Ma, Shuangge; Wang, Ching-Yun

2015-09-01

In health services and outcome research, count outcomes are frequently encountered and often have a large proportion of zeros. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model has important applications for this type of data. With many possible candidate risk factors, this paper proposes new variable selection methods for the ZINB model. We consider maximum likelihood function plus a penalty including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD), and minimax concave penalty (MCP). An EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is proposed for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. This algorithm consists of estimating penalized weighted negative binomial models and penalized logistic models via the coordinated descent algorithm. Furthermore, statistical properties including the standard error formulae are provided. A simulation study shows that the new algorithm not only has more accurate or at least comparable estimation, but also is more robust than the traditional stepwise variable selection. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the health care demand in Germany using the open-source R package mpath. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A Short Isoform of Human Cytomegalovirus US3 Functions as a Dominant Negative Inhibitor of the Full-Length Form

PubMed Central

Shin, Jinwook; Park, Boyoun; Lee, Sungwook; Kim, Youngkyun; Biegalke, Bonita J.; Kang, Seongman; Ahn, Kwangseog

2006-01-01

Human cytomegalovirus encodes four unique short (US) region proteins, each of which is independently sufficient for causing the down-regulation of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules on the cell surface. This down-regulation enables infected cells to evade recognition by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) but makes them vulnerable to lysis by natural killer (NK) cells, which lyse those cells that lack MHC class I molecules. The 22-kDa US3 glycoprotein is able to down-regulate the surface expression of MHC class I molecules by dual mechanisms: direct endoplasmic reticulum retention by physical association and/or tapasin inhibition. The alternative splicing of the US3 gene generates two additional products, including 17-kDa and 3.5-kDa truncated isoforms; however, the functional significance of these isoforms during viral infection is unknown. Here, we describe a novel mode of self-regulation of US3 function that uses the endogenously produced truncated isoform. The truncated isoform itself neither binds to MHC class I molecules nor prevents the full-length US3 from interacting with MHC class I molecules. Instead, the truncated isoform associates with tapasin and competes with full-length US3 for binding to tapasin; thus, it suppresses the action of US3 that causes the disruption of the function of tapasin. Our results indicate that the truncated isoform of the US3 locus acts as a dominant negative regulator of full-length US3 activity. These data reflect the manner in which the virus has developed temporal survival strategies during viral infection against immune surveillance involving both CTLs and NK cells. PMID:16699020

A short isoform of human cytomegalovirus US3 functions as a dominant negative inhibitor of the full-length form.

PubMed

Shin, Jinwook; Park, Boyoun; Lee, Sungwook; Kim, Youngkyun; Biegalke, Bonita J; Kang, Seongman; Ahn, Kwangseog

2006-06-01

Human cytomegalovirus encodes four unique short (US) region proteins, each of which is independently sufficient for causing the down-regulation of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules on the cell surface. This down-regulation enables infected cells to evade recognition by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) but makes them vulnerable to lysis by natural killer (NK) cells, which lyse those cells that lack MHC class I molecules. The 22-kDa US3 glycoprotein is able to down-regulate the surface expression of MHC class I molecules by dual mechanisms: direct endoplasmic reticulum retention by physical association and/or tapasin inhibition. The alternative splicing of the US3 gene generates two additional products, including 17-kDa and 3.5-kDa truncated isoforms; however, the functional significance of these isoforms during viral infection is unknown. Here, we describe a novel mode of self-regulation of US3 function that uses the endogenously produced truncated isoform. The truncated isoform itself neither binds to MHC class I molecules nor prevents the full-length US3 from interacting with MHC class I molecules. Instead, the truncated isoform associates with tapasin and competes with full-length US3 for binding to tapasin; thus, it suppresses the action of US3 that causes the disruption of the function of tapasin. Our results indicate that the truncated isoform of the US3 locus acts as a dominant negative regulator of full-length US3 activity. These data reflect the manner in which the virus has developed temporal survival strategies during viral infection against immune surveillance involving both CTLs and NK cells.

Impact of early childhood caries on oral health-related quality of life of preschool children.

PubMed

Li, M Y; Zhi, Q H; Zhou, Y; Qiu, R M; Lin, H C

2015-03-01

Child oral health-related quality of life (COHRQoL) has been assessed in developed areas; however, it remains unstudied in mainland China. Studies on COHRQoL would benefit a large number of children in China suffering from oral health problems such as dental caries. This study explored the relationship between COHRQoL and early childhood caries, adjusted by socioeconomic factors, in 3- to 4-year-old children in a region of southern China. In this study, 1062 children aged 3-4 years were recruited by cluster sampling and their oral health statuses were examined by a trained dentist. The Chinese version of the Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale (ECOHIS) and questions about the children's socioeconomic conditions were completed by the children's parents. A negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess the prevalence of early childhood caries among the children and its influence on COHRQoL. The total ECOHIS scores of the returned scale sets ranged from 0 to 31, and their average scores was 3.1±5.1. The negative binomial analysis showed that the dmfs indices were significantly associated with the ECOHIS score and subscale scores (P<0.05). The multivariate adjusted model showed that a higher dmft index was associated with greater negative impact on COHRQoL (RR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.07, 1.13; P < 0.05). However, demographic and socioeconomic factors were not associated with COHRQoL (P>0.05). The severity of early childhood caries has a negative impact on the oral health-related quality of life of preschool children and their parents.

Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

2015-03-01

Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Particle-in-cell study of the ion-to-electron sheath transition

DOE PAGES

Scheiner, Brett; Baalrud, Scott D.; Hopkins, Matthew M.; ...

2016-08-09

The form of a sheath near a small electrode, with bias changing from below to above the plasma potential, is studied using 2D particle-in-cell simulations. When the electrode is biased within T e/2 e below the plasma potential, the electron velocity distribution functions (EVDFs) exhibit a loss-cone type truncation due to fast electrons overcoming the small potential difference between the electrode and plasma. No sheath is present in this regime, and the plasma remains quasineutral up to the electrode. The EVDF truncation leads to a presheath-like density and flow velocity gradients. Once the bias exceeds the plasma potential, an electronmore » sheath is present. In this case, the truncation driven behavior persists, but is accompanied by a shift in the maximum value of the EVDF that is not present in the negative bias cases. In conclusion, the flow moment has significant contributions from both the flow shift of the EVDF maximum, and the loss-cone truncation.« less

Renormalization group scale-setting from the action—a road to modified gravity theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domazet, Silvije; Štefančić, Hrvoje

2012-12-01

The renormalization group (RG) corrected gravitational action in Einstein-Hilbert and other truncations is considered. The running scale of the RG is treated as a scalar field at the level of the action and determined in a scale-setting procedure recently introduced by Koch and Ramirez for the Einstein-Hilbert truncation. The scale-setting procedure is elaborated for other truncations of the gravitational action and applied to several phenomenologically interesting cases. It is shown how the logarithmic dependence of the Newton's coupling on the RG scale leads to exponentially suppressed effective cosmological constant and how the scale-setting in particular RG-corrected gravitational theories yields the effective f(R) modified gravity theories with negative powers of the Ricci scalar R. The scale-setting at the level of the action at the non-Gaussian fixed point in Einstein-Hilbert and more general truncations is shown to lead to universal effective action quadratic in the Ricci tensor.

CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

Do Barriers to Crime Prevention Moderate the Effects of Situational Crime Prevention Policies on Violent Crime in High Schools?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sevigny, Eric L.; Zhang, Gary

2018-01-01

This study investigates how barriers to school-based crime prevention programming moderate the effects of situational crime prevention (SCP) policies on levels of violent crime in U.S. public high schools. Using data from the 2008 School Survey on Crime and Safety, we estimate a series of negative binomial regression models with interactions to…

Evaluation of the Johne's disease risk assessment and management plan on dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor J; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David F

2015-10-01

Johne's disease (JD) is a production-limiting gastrointestinal disease in cattle. To minimize the effects of JD, the Ontario dairy industry launched the Ontario Johne's Education and Management Assistance Program in 2010. As part of the program, trained veterinarians conducted a risk assessment and management plan (RAMP), an on-farm questionnaire where high RAMP scores are associated with high risk of JD transmission. Subsequently, veterinarians recommended farm-specific management practices for JD prevention. Milk or serum ELISA results from the milking herd were used to determine the herd ELISA status (HES) and within-herd prevalence. After 3.5 yr of implementation of the program, the aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among RAMP scores, HES, and recommendations. Data from 2,103 herds were available for the analyses. A zero-inflated negative binomial model for the prediction of the number of ELISA-positive animals per farm was built. The model included individual RAMP questions about purchasing animals in the logistic portion, indicating risks for between-herd transmission, and purchasing bulls, birth of calves outside the designated calving area, colostrum and milk feeding management, and adult cow environmental hygiene in the negative binomial portion, indicating risk factors for within-herd transmission. However, farms which fed low-risk milk compared with milk replacer had fewer seropositive animals. The model additionally included the JD herd history in the negative binomial and the logistic portion, indicating that herds with a JD herd history were more likely to have at least 1 positive animal and to have a higher number of positive animals. Generally, a positive association was noted between RAMP scores and the odds of receiving a recommendation for the respective risk area; however, the relationship was not always linear. For general JD risk and calving area risk, seropositive herds had higher odds of receiving recommendations compared with seronegative herds if the section scores were low. This study suggests that the RAMP is a valuable tool to assess the risk for JD transmission within and between herds and to determine farm-specific recommendations for JD prevention. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive accuracy of particle filtering in dynamic models supporting outbreak projections.

PubMed

Safarishahrbijari, Anahita; Teyhouee, Aydin; Waldner, Cheryl; Liu, Juxin; Osgood, Nathaniel D

2017-09-26

While a new generation of computational statistics algorithms and availability of data streams raises the potential for recurrently regrounding dynamic models with incoming observations, the effectiveness of such arrangements can be highly subject to specifics of the configuration (e.g., frequency of sampling and representation of behaviour change), and there has been little attempt to identify effective configurations. Combining dynamic models with particle filtering, we explored a solution focusing on creating quickly formulated models regrounded automatically and recurrently as new data becomes available. Given a latent underlying case count, we assumed that observed incident case counts followed a negative binomial distribution. In accordance with the condensation algorithm, each such observation led to updating of particle weights. We evaluated the effectiveness of various particle filtering configurations against each other and against an approach without particle filtering according to the accuracy of the model in predicting future prevalence, given data to a certain point and a norm-based discrepancy metric. We examined the effectiveness of particle filtering under varying times between observations, negative binomial dispersion parameters, and rates with which the contact rate could evolve. We observed that more frequent observations of empirical data yielded super-linearly improved accuracy in model predictions. We further found that for the data studied here, the most favourable assumptions to make regarding the parameters associated with the negative binomial distribution and changes in contact rate were robust across observation frequency and the observation point in the outbreak. Combining dynamic models with particle filtering can perform well in projecting future evolution of an outbreak. Most importantly, the remarkable improvements in predictive accuracy resulting from more frequent sampling suggest that investments to achieve efficient reporting mechanisms may be more than paid back by improved planning capacity. The robustness of the results on particle filter configuration in this case study suggests that it may be possible to formulate effective standard guidelines and regularized approaches for such techniques in particular epidemiological contexts. Most importantly, the work tentatively suggests potential for health decision makers to secure strong guidance when anticipating outbreak evolution for emerging infectious diseases by combining even very rough models with particle filtering method.

Government capacities and stakeholders: what facilitates ehealth legislation?

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Newly established high-technology areas such as eHealth require regulations regarding the interoperability of health information infrastructures and data protection. It is argued that government capacities as well as the extent to which public and private organizations participate in policy-making determine the level of eHealth legislation. Both explanatory factors are influenced by international organizations that provide knowledge transfer and encourage private actor participation. Methods Data analysis is based on the Global Observatory for eHealth - ATLAS eHealth country profiles which summarizes eHealth policies in 114 countries. Data analysis was carried out using two-component hurdle models with a truncated Poisson model for positive counts and a hurdle component model with a binomial distribution for zero or greater counts. Results The analysis reveals that the participation of private organizations such as donors has negative effects on the level of eHealth legislation. The impact of public-private partnerships (PPPs) depends on the degree of government capacities already available and on democratic regimes. Democracies are more responsive to these new regulatory demands than autocracies. Democracies find it easier to transfer knowledge out of PPPs than autocracies. Government capacities increase the knowledge transfer effect of PPPs, thus leading to more eHealth legislation. Conclusions All international regimes – the WHO, the EU, and the OECD – promote PPPs in order to ensure the construction of a national eHealth infrastructure. This paper shows that the development of government capacities in the eHealth domain has to be given a higher priority than the establishment of PPPs, since the existence of some (initial) capacities is the sine qua non of further capacity building. PMID:24410989

Behavioral Health Treatment Patterns Among Employer-Insured Adults in Same- and Different-Gender Marriages and Domestic Partnerships.

PubMed

Tran, Linda Diem; Xu, Haiyong; Azocar, Francisca; Ettner, Susan L

2018-05-01

This study examined specialty behavioral health treatment patterns among employer-insured adults in same- and different-gender domestic partnerships and marriages. The study used behavioral health service claims (2008-2013) from Optum to estimate gender-stratified penetration rates of behavioral health service use by couple type and partnership status among partnered adults ages 18-64 (N=12,727,292 person-years) and levels of use among those with any use (conditional analyses). Least-squares, logistic, and zero-truncated negative binomial regression analyses adjusted for age, employer and plan characteristics, and provider supply and for sociodemographic factors in sensitivity analyses. Generalized estimating equations were used to address within-group correlation of adults clustered in employer groups. Both women and men in same-gender marriages or domestic partnerships had higher rates of behavioral health service use, particularly diagnostic evaluation, individual psychotherapy, and medication management, and those in treatment had, on average, more psychotherapy visits than those in different-gender marriages. Behavioral health treatment patterns were similar between women in same-gender domestic partnerships and same-gender marriages, but they diverged between men in same-gender domestic partnerships and same-gender marriages. Moderation analysis results indicated that adults with same-gender partners living in states with fewer legal protections for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender persons were less likely than adults with same-gender partners in LGBT-friendly states to receive behavioral health treatment. Sensitivity analyses did not affect findings. Behavioral health treatment patterns varied by couple type, partnership status, and gender. Results highlight the importance of increasing service acceptability and delivering inclusive, culturally relevant behavioral health treatment for lesbian, gay, and bisexual persons.

Does the Committee Peer Review Select the Best Applicants for Funding? An Investigation of the Selection Process for Two European Molecular Biology Organization Programmes

PubMed Central

Bornmann, Lutz; Wallon, Gerlind; Ledin, Anna

2008-01-01

Does peer review fulfill its declared objective of identifying the best science and the best scientists? In order to answer this question we analyzed the Long-Term Fellowship and the Young Investigator programmes of the European Molecular Biology Organization. Both programmes aim to identify and support the best post doctoral fellows and young group leaders in the life sciences. We checked the association between the selection decisions and the scientific performance of the applicants. Our study involved publication and citation data for 668 applicants to the Long-Term Fellowship programme from the year 1998 (130 approved, 538 rejected) and 297 applicants to the Young Investigator programme (39 approved and 258 rejected applicants) from the years 2001 and 2002. If quantity and impact of research publications are used as a criterion for scientific achievement, the results of (zero-truncated) negative binomial models show that the peer review process indeed selects scientists who perform on a higher level than the rejected ones subsequent to application. We determined the extent of errors due to over-estimation (type I errors) and under-estimation (type 2 errors) of future scientific performance. Our statistical analyses point out that between 26% and 48% of the decisions made to award or reject an application show one of both error types. Even though for a part of the applicants, the selection committee did not correctly estimate the applicant's future performance, the results show a statistically significant association between selection decisions and the applicants' scientific achievements, if quantity and impact of research publications are used as a criterion for scientific achievement. PMID:18941530

Inpatient care of the elderly in Brazil and India: Assessing social inequalities

PubMed Central

Channon, Andrew Amos; Andrade, Monica Viegas; Noronha, Kenya; Leone, Tiziana; Dilip, T.R.

2012-01-01

The rapidly growing older adult populations in Brazil and India present major challenges for health systems in these countries, especially with regard to the equitable provision of inpatient care. The objective of this study was to contrast inequalities in both the receipt of inpatient care and the length of time that care was received among adults aged over 60 in two large countries with different modes of health service delivery. Using the Brazilian National Household Survey from 2003 and the Indian National Sample Survey Organisation survey from 2004 inequalities by wealth (measured by income in Brazil and consumption in India) were assessed using concentration curves and indices. Inequalities were also examined through the use of zero-truncated negative binomial models, studying differences in receipt of care and length of stay by region, health insurance, education and reported health status. Results indicated that there was no evidence of inequality in Brazil for both receipt and length of stay by income per capita. However, in India there was a pro-rich bias in the receipt of care, although once care was received there was no difference by consumption per capita for the length of stay. In both countries the higher educated and those with health insurance were more likely to receive care, while the higher educated had longer stays in hospital in Brazil. The health system reforms that have been undertaken in Brazil could be credited as a driver for reducing healthcare inequalities amongst the elderly, while the significant differences by wealth in India shows that reform is still needed to ensure the poor have access to inpatient care. Health reforms that move towards a more public funding model of service delivery in India may reduce inequality in elderly inpatient care in the country. PMID:23041128

Medicare Part D Benzodiazepine Exclusion and Use of Psychotropic Medication by Patients With New Anxiety Disorders

PubMed Central

Ong, Michael K.; Zhang, Lily; Xu, Haiyong; Azocar, Francisca; Ettner, Susan L.

2015-01-01

Objective The Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) specifically excluded benzodiazepines from Medicare Part D coverage starting in 2006; however, benzodiazepines are an effective, low-cost treatment for anxiety. This study evaluated the effect of the Medicare Part D benzodiazepine coverage exclusion among patients with new anxiety disorders. Methods The authors used a quasi-experimental cohort design to study patients with new anxiety diagnoses from a large national health plan during the first six months of 2005, 2006, and 2007. Logistic and zero-truncated negative-binomial regression models using covered claims for behavioral, medical, and pharmaceutical care linked with eligibility files were used to estimate utilization and costs of psychotropic medication and health care utilization among elderly Medicare Advantage enrollees (N=8,397) subject to the MMA benzodiazepine exclusion and a comparison group of near-elderly (ages 60–64) enrollees (N=1,657) of a managed care plan. Results Medicare Advantage enrollees diagnosed in 2005 had significantly (p<.05) higher rates of covered claims for benzodiazepines and all psychotropic drugs, lower rates of covered claims for nonbenzodiazepines, and lower expenditures for psychotropic drugs than enrollees diagnosed in 2006 and 2007. There were no significant differences over time in utilization or expenditures related to psychotropic medication among the comparison group. There also were no significant changes over time in outpatient visits for behavioral care by either cohort. Conclusions Among elderly patients with new anxiety diagnoses, the MMA benzodiazepine exclusion increased use of nonbenzodiazepine psychotropic drugs without substitution of increased behavioral care. Overall, the exclusion was associated with a modest increase in covered claims for psychotropic medication. PMID:22549332

Exploring the effects of state highway safety laws and sociocultural characteristics on fatal crashes.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Nambisan, Shashi S; Clarke, David B; Sun, Jian

2017-04-03

Distinguished from the traditional perspectives in crash analyses, which examined the effects of geometric design features, traffic factors, and other relevant attributes on the crash frequencies of roadway entities, our study focuses on exploring the effects of highway safety laws, as well as sociocultural characteristics, on fatal crashes across states. Law and regulation related data were collected from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, State Highway Safety Offices, and Governors Highway Safety Association. A variety of sociodemographic characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition, cultural factors and other attributes from a variety of resources are considered and incorporated in the modeling process. These data and fatal crash counts were collected for the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia and were analyzed using zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB) regression models. The results show that, in law and regulation-related factors, the use of speed cameras, no handheld cell phone ban, limited handheld cell phone ban, and no text messaging ban are found to have significant effects on fatal crashes. Regarding sociocultural characteristics, married couples with both husband and wife in the labor force are found to be associated with lower crash frequencies, the ratios of workers traveling to work by carpool, those driving alone, workers working outside the county of residence, language other than English and limited English fluency, and the number of licensed drivers are found to be associated with higher crash frequencies. Through reviewing and modeling existing state highway safety laws and sociocultural characteristics, the results reveal new insights that could influence policy making. In addition, the results would benefit amending existing laws and regulations and provide testimony about highway safety issues before lawmakers consider new legislation.

Not in My Back Yard: A Comparative Analysis of Crime Around Publicly Funded Drug Treatment Centers, Liquor Stores, Convenience Stores, and Corner Stores in One Mid-Atlantic City.

PubMed

Furr-Holden, C Debra M; Milam, Adam J; Nesoff, Elizabeth D; Johnson, Renee M; Fakunle, David O; Jennings, Jacky M; Thorpe, Roland J

2016-01-01

This research examined whether publicly funded drug treatment centers (DTCs) were associated with violent crime in excess of the violence happening around other commercial businesses. Violent crime data and locations of community entities were geocoded and mapped. DTCs and other retail outlets were matched based on a Neighborhood Disadvantage score at the census tract level. Street network buffers ranging from 100 to 1,400 feet were placed around each location. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the relationship between the count of violent crimes and the distance from each business type. Compared with the mean count of violent crime around drug treatment centers, the mean count of violent crime (M = 2.87) was significantly higher around liquor stores (M = 3.98; t test; p < .01) and corner stores (M = 3.78; t test; p < .01), and there was no statistically significant difference between the count around convenience stores (M = 2.65; t test; p = .32). In the adjusted negative binomial regression models, there was a negative and significant relationship between the count of violent crime and the distance from drug treatment centers (β = -.069, p < .01), liquor stores (β = -.081, p < .01), corner stores (β = -.116, p < .01), and convenience stores (β = -.154, p < .01). Violent crime associated with drug treatment centers is similar to that associated with liquor stores and is less frequent than that associated with convenience stores and corner stores.

Sequential sampling of ribes populations in the control of white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola Fischer) in California

Treesearch

Harold R. Offord

1966-01-01

Sequential sampling based on a negative binomial distribution of ribes populations required less than half the time taken by regular systematic line transect sampling in a comparison test. It gave the same control decision as the regular method in 9 of 13 field trials. A computer program that permits sequential plans to be built readily for other white pine regions is...

Logistic quantile regression provides improved estimates for bounded avian counts: a case study of California Spotted Owl fledgling production

Treesearch

Brian S. Cade; Barry R. Noon; Rick D. Scherer; John J. Keane

2017-01-01

Counts of avian fledglings, nestlings, or clutch size that are bounded below by zero and above by some small integer form a discrete random variable distribution that is not approximated well by conventional parametric count distributions such as the Poisson or negative binomial. We developed a logistic quantile regression model to provide estimates of the empirical...

Oral health of schoolchildren in Western Australia.

PubMed

Arrow, P

2016-09-01

The West Australian School Dental Service (SDS) provides free, statewide, primary dental care to schoolchildren aged 5-17 years. This study reports on an evaluation of the oral health of children examined during the 2014 calendar year. Children were sampled, based on their date of birth, and SDS clinicians collected the clinical information. Weighted mean values of caries experience were presented. Negative binomial regression modelling was undertaken to test for factors of significance in the rate of caries occurrence. Data from children aged 5-15 years were used (girls = 4616, boys = 4900). Mean dmft (5-10-year-olds), 1.42 SE 0.03; mean DMFT (6-15-year-olds), 0.51 SE 0.01. Negative binomial regression model of permanent tooth caries found higher rates of caries in children who were from non-fluoridated areas (RR 2.1); Aboriginal (RR 2.4); had gingival inflammation (RR 1.5); lower ICSEA level (RR 1.4); and recalled at more than 24-month interval (RR 1.8). The study highlighted poor dental health associated with living in non-fluoridated areas, Aboriginal identity, poor oral hygiene, lower socioeconomic level and having extended intervals between dental checkups. Timely assessments and preventive measures targeted at groups, including extending community water fluoridation, may assist in further improving the oral health of children in Western Australia. © 2015 Australian Dental Association.

Characterizing environmental risk factors for West Nile virus in Quebec, Canada, using clinical data in humans and serology in pet dogs.

PubMed

Rocheleau, J P; Michel, P; Lindsay, L R; Drebot, M; Dibernardo, A; Ogden, N H; Fortin, A; Arsenault, J

2017-10-01

The identification of specific environments sustaining emerging arbovirus amplification and transmission to humans is a key component of public health intervention planning. This study aimed at identifying environmental factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) infections in southern Quebec, Canada, by modelling and jointly interpreting aggregated clinical data in humans and serological data in pet dogs. Environmental risk factors were estimated in humans by negative binomial regression based on a dataset of 191 human WNV clinical cases reported in the study area between 2011 and 2014. Risk factors for infection in dogs were evaluated by logistic and negative binomial models based on a dataset including WNV serological results from 1442 dogs sampled from the same geographical area in 2013. Forested lands were identified as low-risk environments in humans. Agricultural lands represented higher risk environments for dogs. Environments identified as impacting risk in the current study were somewhat different from those identified in other studies conducted in north-eastern USA, which reported higher risk in suburban environments. In the context of the current study, combining human and animal data allowed a more comprehensive and possibly a more accurate view of environmental WNV risk factors to be obtained than by studying aggregated human data alone.

Negative Binomial Process Count and Mixture Modeling.

PubMed

Zhou, Mingyuan; Carin, Lawrence

2015-02-01

The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process for count modeling. A draw from the NB process consists of a Poisson distributed finite number of distinct atoms, each of which is associated with a logarithmic distributed number of data samples. We reveal relationships between various count- and mixture-modeling distributions and construct a Poisson-logarithmic bivariate distribution that connects the NB and Chinese restaurant table distributions. Fundamental properties of the models are developed, and we derive efficient Bayesian inference. It is shown that with augmentation and normalization, the NB process and gamma-NB process can be reduced to the Dirichlet process and hierarchical Dirichlet process, respectively. These relationships highlight theoretical, structural, and computational advantages of the NB process. A variety of NB processes, including the beta-geometric, beta-NB, marked-beta-NB, marked-gamma-NB and zero-inflated-NB processes, with distinct sharing mechanisms, are also constructed. These models are applied to topic modeling, with connections made to existing algorithms under Poisson factor analysis. Example results show the importance of inferring both the NB dispersion and probability parameters.

Community covariates of malnutrition based mortality among older adults.

PubMed

Lee, Matthew R; Berthelot, Emily R

2010-05-01

The purpose of this study was to identify community level covariates of malnutrition-based mortality among older adults. A community level framework was delineated which explains rates of malnutrition-related mortality among older adults as a function of community levels of socioeconomic disadvantage, disability, and social isolation among members of this group. County level data on malnutrition mortality of people 65 years of age and older for the period 2000-2003 were drawn from the CDC WONDER system databases. County level measures of older adult socioeconomic disadvantage, disability, and social isolation were derived from the 2000 US Census of Population and Housing. Negative binomial regression models adjusting for the size of the population at risk, racial composition, urbanism, and region were estimated to assess the relationships among these indicators. Results from negative binomial regression analysis yielded the following: a standard deviation increase in socioeconomic/physical disadvantage was associated with a 12% increase in the rate of malnutrition mortality among older adults (p < 0.001), whereas a standard deviation increase in social isolation was associated with a 5% increase in malnutrition mortality among older adults (p < 0.05). Community patterns of malnutrition based mortality among older adults are partly a function of levels of socioeconomic and physical disadvantage and social isolation among older adults. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Goodness-of-fit tests and model diagnostics for negative binomial regression of RNA sequencing data.

PubMed

Mi, Gu; Di, Yanming; Schafer, Daniel W

2015-01-01

This work is about assessing model adequacy for negative binomial (NB) regression, particularly (1) assessing the adequacy of the NB assumption, and (2) assessing the appropriateness of models for NB dispersion parameters. Tools for the first are appropriate for NB regression generally; those for the second are primarily intended for RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data analysis. The typically small number of biological samples and large number of genes in RNA-Seq analysis motivate us to address the trade-offs between robustness and statistical power using NB regression models. One widely-used power-saving strategy, for example, is to assume some commonalities of NB dispersion parameters across genes via simple models relating them to mean expression rates, and many such models have been proposed. As RNA-Seq analysis is becoming ever more popular, it is appropriate to make more thorough investigations into power and robustness of the resulting methods, and into practical tools for model assessment. In this article, we propose simulation-based statistical tests and diagnostic graphics to address model adequacy. We provide simulated and real data examples to illustrate that our proposed methods are effective for detecting the misspecification of the NB mean-variance relationship as well as judging the adequacy of fit of several NB dispersion models.

Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models.

PubMed

Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D; Sarran, Christophe

2013-05-01

Health forecasting can improve health service provision and individual patient outcomes. Environmental factors are known to impact chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma, but little is known about the extent to which these factors can be used for forecasting. Using weather, air quality and hospital asthma admissions, in London (2005-2006), two related negative binomial models were developed and compared with a naive seasonal model. In the first approach, predictive forecasting models were fitted with 7-day averages of each potential predictor, and then a subsequent multivariable model is constructed. In the second strategy, an exhaustive search of the best fitting models between possible combinations of lags (0-14 days) of all the environmental effects on asthma admission was conducted. Three models were considered: a base model (seasonal effects), contrasted with a 7-day average model and a selected lags model (weather and air quality effects). Season is the best predictor of asthma admissions. The 7-day average and seasonal models were trivial to implement. The selected lags model was computationally intensive, but of no real value over much more easily implemented models. Seasonal factors can predict daily hospital asthma admissions in London, and there is a little evidence that additional weather and air quality information would add to forecast accuracy.

Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

PubMed

Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

2016-05-01

Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between adherence to physical activity guidelines and health-related quality of life among individuals with physician-diagnosed arthritis.

PubMed

Austin, Shamly; Qu, Haiyan; Shewchuk, Richard M

2012-10-01

To examine the association between adherence to physical activity guidelines and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among individuals with arthritis. A cross-sectional sample with 33,071 US adults, 45 years or older with physician-diagnosed arthritis was obtained from 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. We conducted negative binomial regression analysis to examine HRQOL as a function of adherence to physical activity guidelines controlling for physicians' recommendations for physical activity, age, sex, race, education, marital status, employment, annual income, health insurance, personal physician, emotional support, body mass index, activity limitations, health status, and co-morbidities based on Behavioral Model of Health Services Utilization. Descriptive statistics showed that 60% adults with arthritis did not adhere to physical activity guidelines, mean physically and mentally unhealthy days were 7.7 and 4.4 days, respectively. Results from negative binomial regression indicated that individuals who did not adhere to physical activity guidelines had 1.14 days more physically unhealthy days and 1.12 days more mentally unhealthy days than those who adhered controlling for covariates. Adherence to physical activity is important to improve HRQOL for individuals with arthritis. However, adherence is low among this population. Interventions are required to engage individuals with arthritis in physical activity.

Technical and biological variance structure in mRNA-Seq data: life in the real world

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background mRNA expression data from next generation sequencing platforms is obtained in the form of counts per gene or exon. Counts have classically been assumed to follow a Poisson distribution in which the variance is equal to the mean. The Negative Binomial distribution which allows for over-dispersion, i.e., for the variance to be greater than the mean, is commonly used to model count data as well. Results In mRNA-Seq data from 25 subjects, we found technical variation to generally follow a Poisson distribution as has been reported previously and biological variability was over-dispersed relative to the Poisson model. The mean-variance relationship across all genes was quadratic, in keeping with a Negative Binomial (NB) distribution. Over-dispersed Poisson and NB distributional assumptions demonstrated marked improvements in goodness-of-fit (GOF) over the standard Poisson model assumptions, but with evidence of over-fitting in some genes. Modeling of experimental effects improved GOF for high variance genes but increased the over-fitting problem. Conclusions These conclusions will guide development of analytical strategies for accurate modeling of variance structure in these data and sample size determination which in turn will aid in the identification of true biological signals that inform our understanding of biological systems. PMID:22769017

Design and analysis of three-arm trials with negative binomially distributed endpoints.

PubMed

Mütze, Tobias; Munk, Axel; Friede, Tim

2016-02-20

A three-arm clinical trial design with an experimental treatment, an active control, and a placebo control, commonly referred to as the gold standard design, enables testing of non-inferiority or superiority of the experimental treatment compared with the active control. In this paper, we propose methods for designing and analyzing three-arm trials with negative binomially distributed endpoints. In particular, we develop a Wald-type test with a restricted maximum-likelihood variance estimator for testing non-inferiority or superiority. For this test, sample size and power formulas as well as optimal sample size allocations will be derived. The performance of the proposed test will be assessed in an extensive simulation study with regard to type I error rate, power, sample size, and sample size allocation. For the purpose of comparison, Wald-type statistics with a sample variance estimator and an unrestricted maximum-likelihood estimator are included in the simulation study. We found that the proposed Wald-type test with a restricted variance estimator performed well across the considered scenarios and is therefore recommended for application in clinical trials. The methods proposed are motivated and illustrated by a recent clinical trial in multiple sclerosis. The R package ThreeArmedTrials, which implements the methods discussed in this paper, is available on CRAN. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accounting for non-independent detection when estimating abundance of organisms with a Bayesian approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Royle, J. Andrew; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Edwards, Holly H.; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth

2011-01-01

Summary 1. Binomial mixture models use repeated count data to estimate abundance. They are becoming increasingly popular because they provide a simple and cost-effective way to account for imperfect detection. However, these models assume that individuals are detected independently of each other. This assumption may often be violated in the field. For instance, manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) may surface in turbid water (i.e. become available for detection during aerial surveys) in a correlated manner (i.e. in groups). However, correlated behaviour, affecting the non-independence of individual detections, may also be relevant in other systems (e.g. correlated patterns of singing in birds and amphibians). 2. We extend binomial mixture models to account for correlated behaviour and therefore to account for non-independent detection of individuals. We simulated correlated behaviour using beta-binomial random variables. Our approach can be used to simultaneously estimate abundance, detection probability and a correlation parameter. 3. Fitting binomial mixture models to data that followed a beta-binomial distribution resulted in an overestimation of abundance even for moderate levels of correlation. In contrast, the beta-binomial mixture model performed considerably better in our simulation scenarios. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure to evaluate the fit of beta-binomial mixture models. 4. We illustrate our approach by fitting both binomial and beta-binomial mixture models to aerial survey data of manatees in Florida. We found that the binomial mixture model did not fit the data, whereas there was no evidence of lack of fit for the beta-binomial mixture model. This example helps illustrate the importance of using simulations and assessing goodness-of-fit when analysing ecological data with N-mixture models. Indeed, both the simulations and the goodness-of-fit procedure highlighted the limitations of the standard binomial mixture model for aerial manatee surveys. 5. Overestimation of abundance by binomial mixture models owing to non-independent detections is problematic for ecological studies, but also for conservation. For example, in the case of endangered species, it could lead to inappropriate management decisions, such as downlisting. These issues will be increasingly relevant as more ecologists apply flexible N-mixture models to ecological data.

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach

PubMed Central

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2018-01-01

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach, and has several attractive features compared to the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, since the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. PMID:26303591

In silico and in vivo studies of truncated forms of flagellin (FliC) of enteroaggregative Escherichia coli fused to FimH from uropathogenic Escherichia coli as a vaccine candidate against urinary tract infections.

PubMed

Savar, Nastaran Sadat; Jahanian-Najafabadi, Ali; Mahdavi, Mehdi; Shokrgozar, Mohammad Ali; Jafari, Anis; Bouzari, Saeid

2014-04-10

The new generation of vaccines against infectious diseases is based on recombinant fusion proteins. Flagellin (FliC) of enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAEC) could be considered as a potent adjuvant in designing new vaccines. However, because of its large size, incorporation of this protein with a vaccine antigen might negatively influence recognition of the vaccine epitopes by the immune system. Designing the truncated forms of FliC, capable of inducing innate immune response, enhances the immune responses to the target antigen. We have previously shown that two truncated forms of FliC are able to induce Interleukine-8 production in HT-29 epithelial cell line. In this study we designed recombinant vaccine against urinary tract infections (UTIs) using truncated forms of FliC and type 1 fimbrial FimH adhesin from uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) and studied their in silico interactions with Toll-like receptor 5 (TLR-5) via docking protocols. The best fusion protein was subjected to cloning and expression. The ability of the recombinant vaccine and the truncated forms in inducing immune responses was investigated. Our results showed that truncated forms are capable of inducing Th1 (forms A and B) and Th2 (form A) responses and fusion vaccine induced strong cellular and humoral immune responses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Feasibility of Deploying Inhaler Sensors to Identify the Impacts of Environmental Triggers and Built Environment Factors on Asthma Short-Acting Bronchodilator Use.

PubMed

Su, Jason G; Barrett, Meredith A; Henderson, Kelly; Humblet, Olivier; Smith, Ted; Sublett, James W; Nesbitt, LaQuandra; Hogg, Chris; Van Sickle, David; Sublett, James L

2017-02-01

Epidemiological asthma research has relied upon self-reported symptoms or healthcare utilization data, and used the residential address as the primary location for exposure. These data sources can be temporally limited, spatially aggregated, subjective, and burdensome for the patient to collect. First, we aimed to test the feasibility of collecting rescue inhaler use data in space-time using electronic sensors. Second, we aimed to evaluate whether these data have the potential to identify environmental triggers and built environment factors associated with rescue inhaler use and to determine whether these findings would be consistent with the existing literature. We utilized zero-truncated negative binomial models to identify triggers associated with inhaler use, and implemented three sensitivity analyses to validate our findings. Electronic sensors fitted on metered dose inhalers tracked 5,660 rescue inhaler use events in space and time for 140 participants from 13 June 2012 to 28 February 2014. We found that the inhaler sensors were feasible in passively collecting objective rescue inhaler use data. We identified several environmental triggers with a positive and significant association with inhaler use, including: AQI, PM10, weed pollen, and mold. Conversely, the spatial distribution of tree cover demonstrated a negative and significant association with inhaler use. Utilizing a sensor to capture the signal of rescue inhaler use in space-time offered a passive and objective signal of asthma activity. This approach enabled detailed analyses to identify environmental triggers and built environment factors that are associated with asthma symptoms beyond the residential address. The application of these new technologies has the potential to improve our surveillance and understanding of asthma. Citation: Su JG, Barrett MA, Henderson K, Humblet O, Smith T, Sublett JW, Nesbitt L, Hogg C, Van Sickle D, Sublett JL. 2017. Feasibility of deploying inhaler sensors to identify the impacts of environmental triggers and built environment factors on asthma short-acting bronchodilator use. Environ Health Perspect 125:254-261; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP266.

A Note on a Family of Alternating Sums of Products of Binomial Numbers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gauthier, N.

2013-01-01

We study the following family of integral-valued alternating sums, where -infinity equal to or less than m equal to or less than infinity and n equal to or greater than 0 are integers [equation omitted]. We first consider h[subscript m](n) for m and n non-negative integers and show that it is of the form 2[superscript n + 2m] - P[subscript m](n),…

[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

PubMed

Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

2017-03-10

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2016-01-15

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach and has several attractive features compared with the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, because the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Not in My Back Yard: A Comparative Analysis of Crime Around Publicly Funded Drug Treatment Centers, Liquor Stores, Convenience Stores, and Corner Stores in One Mid-Atlantic City

PubMed Central

Furr-Holden, C. Debra M.; Milam, Adam J.; Nesoff, Elizabeth D.; Johnson, Renee M.; Fakunle, David O.; Jennings, Jacky M.; Thorpe, Roland J.

2016-01-01

Objective: This research examined whether publicly funded drug treatment centers (DTCs) were associated with violent crime in excess of the violence happening around other commercial businesses. Method: Violent crime data and locations of community entities were geocoded and mapped. DTCs and other retail outlets were matched based on a Neighborhood Disadvantage score at the census tract level. Street network buffers ranging from 100 to 1,400 feet were placed around each location. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the relationship between the count of violent crimes and the distance from each business type. Results: Compared with the mean count of violent crime around drug treatment centers, the mean count of violent crime (M = 2.87) was significantly higher around liquor stores (M = 3.98; t test; p < .01) and corner stores (M = 3.78; t test; p < .01), and there was no statistically significant difference between the count around convenience stores (M = 2.65; t test; p = .32). In the adjusted negative binomial regression models, there was a negative and significant relationship between the count of violent crime and the distance from drug treatment centers (β = -.069, p < .01), liquor stores (β = -.081, p < .01), corner stores (β = -.116, p < .01), and convenience stores (β = -.154, p < .01). Conclusions: Violent crime associated with drug treatment centers is similar to that associated with liquor stores and is less frequent than that associated with convenience stores and corner stores. PMID:26751351

Modeling avian abundance from replicated counts using binomial mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans

2005-01-01

Abundance estimation in ecology is usually accomplished by capture–recapture, removal, or distance sampling methods. These may be hard to implement at large spatial scales. In contrast, binomial mixture models enable abundance estimation without individual identification, based simply on temporally and spatially replicated counts. Here, we evaluate mixture models using data from the national breeding bird monitoring program in Switzerland, where some 250 1-km2 quadrats are surveyed using the territory mapping method three times during each breeding season. We chose eight species with contrasting distribution (wide–narrow), abundance (high–low), and detectability (easy–difficult). Abundance was modeled as a random effect with a Poisson or negative binomial distribution, with mean affected by forest cover, elevation, and route length. Detectability was a logit-linear function of survey date, survey date-by-elevation, and sampling effort (time per transect unit). Resulting covariate effects and parameter estimates were consistent with expectations. Detectability per territory (for three surveys) ranged from 0.66 to 0.94 (mean 0.84) for easy species, and from 0.16 to 0.83 (mean 0.53) for difficult species, depended on survey effort for two easy and all four difficult species, and changed seasonally for three easy and three difficult species. Abundance was positively related to route length in three high-abundance and one low-abundance (one easy and three difficult) species, and increased with forest cover in five forest species, decreased for two nonforest species, and was unaffected for a generalist species. Abundance estimates under the most parsimonious mixture models were between 1.1 and 8.9 (median 1.8) times greater than estimates based on territory mapping; hence, three surveys were insufficient to detect all territories for each species. We conclude that binomial mixture models are an important new approach for estimating abundance corrected for detectability when only repeated-count data are available. Future developments envisioned include estimation of trend, occupancy, and total regional abundance.

Measurement error and outcome distributions: Methodological issues in regression analyses of behavioral coding data.

PubMed

Holsclaw, Tracy; Hallgren, Kevin A; Steyvers, Mark; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkins, David C

2015-12-01

Behavioral coding is increasingly used for studying mechanisms of change in psychosocial treatments for substance use disorders (SUDs). However, behavioral coding data typically include features that can be problematic in regression analyses, including measurement error in independent variables, non normal distributions of count outcome variables, and conflation of predictor and outcome variables with third variables, such as session length. Methodological research in econometrics has shown that these issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, inaccurate standard errors, and increased Type I and Type II error rates, yet these statistical issues are not widely known within SUD treatment research, or more generally, within psychotherapy coding research. Using minimally technical language intended for a broad audience of SUD treatment researchers, the present paper illustrates the nature in which these data issues are problematic. We draw on real-world data and simulation-based examples to illustrate how these data features can bias estimation of parameters and interpretation of models. A weighted negative binomial regression is introduced as an alternative to ordinary linear regression that appropriately addresses the data characteristics common to SUD treatment behavioral coding data. We conclude by demonstrating how to use and interpret these models with data from a study of motivational interviewing. SPSS and R syntax for weighted negative binomial regression models is included in online supplemental materials. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Measurement error and outcome distributions: Methodological issues in regression analyses of behavioral coding data

PubMed Central

Holsclaw, Tracy; Hallgren, Kevin A.; Steyvers, Mark; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkins, David C.

2015-01-01

Behavioral coding is increasingly used for studying mechanisms of change in psychosocial treatments for substance use disorders (SUDs). However, behavioral coding data typically include features that can be problematic in regression analyses, including measurement error in independent variables, non-normal distributions of count outcome variables, and conflation of predictor and outcome variables with third variables, such as session length. Methodological research in econometrics has shown that these issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, inaccurate standard errors, and increased type-I and type-II error rates, yet these statistical issues are not widely known within SUD treatment research, or more generally, within psychotherapy coding research. Using minimally-technical language intended for a broad audience of SUD treatment researchers, the present paper illustrates the nature in which these data issues are problematic. We draw on real-world data and simulation-based examples to illustrate how these data features can bias estimation of parameters and interpretation of models. A weighted negative binomial regression is introduced as an alternative to ordinary linear regression that appropriately addresses the data characteristics common to SUD treatment behavioral coding data. We conclude by demonstrating how to use and interpret these models with data from a study of motivational interviewing. SPSS and R syntax for weighted negative binomial regression models is included in supplementary materials. PMID:26098126

Magnitude of virologic blips is associated with a higher risk for virologic rebound in HIV-infected individuals: a recurrent events analysis.

PubMed

Grennan, J Troy; Loutfy, Mona R; Su, DeSheng; Harrigan, P Richard; Cooper, Curtis; Klein, Marina; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio S G; Rourke, Sean; Tsoukas, Christos; Hogg, Bob; Raboud, Janet

2012-04-15

The importance of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) blip magnitude on virologic rebound has been raised in clinical guidelines relating to viral load assays. Antiretroviral-naive individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) after 1 January 2000 and achieving virologic suppression were studied. Negative binomial models were used to identify blip correlates. Recurrent event models were used to determine the association between blips and rebound by incorporating multiple periods of virologic suppression per individual. 3550 participants (82% male; median age, 40 years) were included. In a multivariable negative binomial regression model, the Amplicor assay was associated with a lower blip rate than branched DNA (rate ratio, 0.69; P < .01), controlling for age, sex, region, baseline HIV-1 RNA and CD4 count, AIDS-defining illnesses, year of cART initiation, cART type, and HIV-1 RNA testing frequency. In a multivariable recurrent event model controlling for age, sex, intravenous drug use, cART start year, cART type, assay type, and HIV-1 RNA testing frequency, blips of 500-999 copies/mL were associated with virologic rebound (hazard ratio, 2.70; P = .002), whereas blips of 50-499 were not. HIV-1 RNA assay was an important determinant of blip rates and should be considered in clinical guidelines. Blips ≥500 copies/mL were associated with increased rebound risk.

Multi-level Bayesian safety analysis with unprocessed Automatic Vehicle Identification data for an urban expressway.

PubMed

Shi, Qi; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Yu, Rongjie

2016-03-01

In traffic safety studies, crash frequency modeling of total crashes is the cornerstone before proceeding to more detailed safety evaluation. The relationship between crash occurrence and factors such as traffic flow and roadway geometric characteristics has been extensively explored for a better understanding of crash mechanisms. In this study, a multi-level Bayesian framework has been developed in an effort to identify the crash contributing factors on an urban expressway in the Central Florida area. Two types of traffic data from the Automatic Vehicle Identification system, which are the processed data capped at speed limit and the unprocessed data retaining the original speed were incorporated in the analysis along with road geometric information. The model framework was proposed to account for the hierarchical data structure and the heterogeneity among the traffic and roadway geometric data. Multi-level and random parameters models were constructed and compared with the Negative Binomial model under the Bayesian inference framework. Results showed that the unprocessed traffic data was superior. Both multi-level models and random parameters models outperformed the Negative Binomial model and the models with random parameters achieved the best model fitting. The contributing factors identified imply that on the urban expressway lower speed and higher speed variation could significantly increase the crash likelihood. Other geometric factors were significant including auxiliary lanes and horizontal curvature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the distribution of colonial species to improve estimation of plankton concentration in ballast water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajakaruna, Harshana; VandenByllaardt, Julie; Kydd, Jocelyn; Bailey, Sarah

2018-03-01

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set limits on allowable plankton concentrations in ballast water discharge to minimize aquatic invasions globally. Previous guidance on ballast water sampling and compliance decision thresholds was based on the assumption that probability distributions of plankton are Poisson when spatially homogenous, or negative binomial when heterogeneous. We propose a hierarchical probability model, which incorporates distributions at the level of particles (i.e., discrete individuals plus colonies per unit volume) and also within particles (i.e., individuals per particle) to estimate the average plankton concentration in ballast water. We examined the performance of the models using data for plankton in the size class ≥ 10 μm and < 50 μm, collected from five different depths of a ballast tank of a commercial ship in three independent surveys. We show that the data fit to the negative binomial and the hierarchical probability models equally well, with both models performing better than the Poisson model at the scale of our sampling. The hierarchical probability model, which accounts for both the individuals and the colonies in a sample, reduces the uncertainty associated with the concentration estimation, and improves the power of rejecting the decision on ship's compliance when a ship does not truly comply with the standard. We show examples of how to test ballast water compliance using the above models.

A statistical model to estimate the impact of a hepatitis A vaccination programme.

PubMed

Oviedo, Manuel; Pilar Muñoz, M; Domínguez, Angela; Borras, Eva; Carmona, Gloria

2008-11-11

A program of routine hepatitis A+B vaccination in preadolescents was introduced in 1998 in Catalonia, a region situated in the northeast of Spain. The objective of this study was to quantify the reduction in the incidence of hepatitis A in order to differentiate the natural reduction of the incidence of hepatitis A from that produced due to the vaccination programme and to predict the evolution of the disease in forthcoming years. A generalized linear model (GLM) using negative binomial regression was used to estimate the incidence rates of hepatitis A in Catalonia by year, age group and vaccination. Introduction of the vaccine reduced cases by 5.5 by year (p-value<0.001), but there was a significant interaction between the year of report and vaccination that smoothed this reduction (p-value<0.001). The reduction was not equal in all age groups, being greater in the 12-18 years age group, which fell from a mean rate of 8.15 per 100,000 person/years in the pre-vaccination period (1992-1998) to 1.4 in the vaccination period (1999-2005). The model predicts the evolution accurately for the group of vaccinated subjects. Negative binomial regression is more appropriate than Poisson regression when observed variance exceeds the observed mean (overdispersed count data), can cause a variable apparently contribute more on the model of what really makes it.

Finite mixture modeling approach for developing crash modification factors in highway safety analysis.

PubMed

Park, Byung-Jung; Lord, Dominique; Wu, Lingtao

2016-10-28

This study aimed to investigate the relative performance of two models (negative binomial (NB) model and two-component finite mixture of negative binomial models (FMNB-2)) in terms of developing crash modification factors (CMFs). Crash data on rural multilane divided highways in California and Texas were modeled with the two models, and crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were derived. The resultant CMFunction estimated from the FMNB-2 model showed several good properties over that from the NB model. First, the safety effect of a covariate was better reflected by the CMFunction developed using the FMNB-2 model, since the model takes into account the differential responsiveness of crash frequency to the covariate. Second, the CMFunction derived from the FMNB-2 model is able to capture nonlinear relationships between covariate and safety. Finally, following the same concept as those for NB models, the combined CMFs of multiple treatments were estimated using the FMNB-2 model. The results indicated that they are not the simple multiplicative of single ones (i.e., their safety effects are not independent under FMNB-2 models). Adjustment Factors (AFs) were then developed. It is revealed that current Highway Safety Manual's method could over- or under-estimate the combined CMFs under particular combination of covariates. Safety analysts are encouraged to consider using the FMNB-2 models for developing CMFs and AFs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

nbCNV: a multi-constrained optimization model for discovering copy number variants in single-cell sequencing data.

PubMed

Zhang, Changsheng; Cai, Hongmin; Huang, Jingying; Song, Yan

2016-09-17

Variations in DNA copy number have an important contribution to the development of several diseases, including autism, schizophrenia and cancer. Single-cell sequencing technology allows the dissection of genomic heterogeneity at the single-cell level, thereby providing important evolutionary information about cancer cells. In contrast to traditional bulk sequencing, single-cell sequencing requires the amplification of the whole genome of a single cell to accumulate enough samples for sequencing. However, the amplification process inevitably introduces amplification bias, resulting in an over-dispersing portion of the sequencing data. Recent study has manifested that the over-dispersed portion of the single-cell sequencing data could be well modelled by negative binomial distributions. We developed a read-depth based method, nbCNV to detect the copy number variants (CNVs). The nbCNV method uses two constraints-sparsity and smoothness to fit the CNV patterns under the assumption that the read signals are negatively binomially distributed. The problem of CNV detection was formulated as a quadratic optimization problem, and was solved by an efficient numerical solution based on the classical alternating direction minimization method. Extensive experiments to compare nbCNV with existing benchmark models were conducted on both simulated data and empirical single-cell sequencing data. The results of those experiments demonstrate that nbCNV achieves superior performance and high robustness for the detection of CNVs in single-cell sequencing data.

A comparison of observation-level random effect and Beta-Binomial models for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data in ecology & evolution.

PubMed

Harrison, Xavier A

2015-01-01

Overdispersion is a common feature of models of biological data, but researchers often fail to model the excess variation driving the overdispersion, resulting in biased parameter estimates and standard errors. Quantifying and modeling overdispersion when it is present is therefore critical for robust biological inference. One means to account for overdispersion is to add an observation-level random effect (OLRE) to a model, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that can absorb the extra-parametric variation in the data. Although some studies have investigated the utility of OLRE to model overdispersion in Poisson count data, studies doing so for Binomial proportion data are scarce. Here I use a simulation approach to investigate the ability of both OLRE models and Beta-Binomial models to recover unbiased parameter estimates in mixed effects models of Binomial data under various degrees of overdispersion. In addition, as ecologists often fit random intercept terms to models when the random effect sample size is low (<5 levels), I investigate the performance of both model types under a range of random effect sample sizes when overdispersion is present. Simulation results revealed that the efficacy of OLRE depends on the process that generated the overdispersion; OLRE failed to cope with overdispersion generated from a Beta-Binomial mixture model, leading to biased slope and intercept estimates, but performed well for overdispersion generated by adding random noise to the linear predictor. Comparison of parameter estimates from an OLRE model with those from its corresponding Beta-Binomial model readily identified when OLRE were performing poorly due to disagreement between effect sizes, and this strategy should be employed whenever OLRE are used for Binomial data to assess their reliability. Beta-Binomial models performed well across all contexts, but showed a tendency to underestimate effect sizes when modelling non-Beta-Binomial data. Finally, both OLRE and Beta-Binomial models performed poorly when models contained <5 levels of the random intercept term, especially for estimating variance components, and this effect appeared independent of total sample size. These results suggest that OLRE are a useful tool for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data, but that they do not perform well in all circumstances and researchers should take care to verify the robustness of parameter estimates of OLRE models.

M-Bonomial Coefficients and Their Identities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asiru, Muniru A.

2010-01-01

In this note, we introduce M-bonomial coefficients or (M-bonacci binomial coefficients). These are similar to the binomial and the Fibonomial (or Fibonacci-binomial) coefficients and can be displayed in a triangle similar to Pascal's triangle from which some identities become obvious.

Some characteristics of repeated sickness absence

PubMed Central

Ferguson, David

1972-01-01

Ferguson, D. (1972).Brit. J. industr. Med.,29, 420-431. Some characteristics of repeated sickness absence. Several studies have shown that frequency of absence attributed to sickness is not distributed randomly but tends to follow the negative binomial distribution, and this has been taken to support the concept of `proneness' to such absence. Thus, the distribution of sickness absence resembles that of minor injury at work demonstrated over 50 years ago. Because the investigation of proneness to absence does not appear to have been reported by others in Australia, the opportunity was taken, during a wider study of health among telegraphists in a large communications undertaking, to analyse some characteristics of repeated sickness absence. The records of medically certified and uncertified sickness absence of all 769 telegraphists continuously employed in all State capitals over a two-and-a-half-year period were compared with those of 411 clerks and 415 mechanics and, in Sydney, 380 mail sorters and 80 of their supervisors. All telegraphists in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, and all mail sorters in Sydney, who were available and willing were later medically examined. From their absence pattern repeaters (employees who had had eight or more certified absences in two and a half years) were separated into three types based on a presumptive origin in chance, recurrent disease and symptomatic non-specific disorder. The observed distribution of individual frequency of certified absence over the full two-and-a-half-year period of study followed that expected from the univariate negative binomial, using maximum likelihood estimators, rather than the poisson distribution, in three of the four occupational groups in Sydney. Limited correlational and bivariate analysis supported the interpretation of proneness ascribed to the univariate fit. In the two groups studied, frequency of uncertified absence could not be fitted by the negative binomial, although the numbers of such absences in individuals in successive years were relatively highly correlated. All types of repeater were commoner in Sydney than in the other capital city offices, which differed little from each other. Repeaters were more common among those whose absence was attributed to neurosis, alimentary and upper respiratory tract disorder, and injury. Out of more than 90 health, personal, social, and industrial attributes determined at examination, only two (ethanol habit and adverse attitude to pay) showed any statistically significant association when telegraphist repeaters in Sydney were compared with employees who were rarely absent. Though repeating tended to be associated with chronic or recurrent ill health revealed at examination, one quarter of repeaters had little such ill health and one quarter of rarely absent employees had much. It was concluded that, in the population studied, the fitting of the negative binomial to frequency of certified sickness absence could, in the circumstances of the study, reasonably be given an interpretation of proneness. In that population also repeating varies geographically and occupationally, and is poorly associated with disease and other attributes uncovered at examination, with the exception of the ethanol habit. Repeaters are more often neurotic than employees who are rarely absent but also are more often stable double jobbers. The repeater should be identified for what help may be given him, if needed, otherwise it would seem more profitable to attack those features in work design and organization which influence motivation to come to work. Social factors which predispose to repeated absence are less amenable to modification. PMID:4636662

Traumatic Brain Injury among US Active Duty Military Personnel and Negative Drinking-Related Consequences

PubMed Central

Adams, Rachel Sayko; Larson, Mary Jo; Corrigan, John D.; Ritter, Grant A.; Williams, Thomas V.

2013-01-01

This study used the 2008 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors among Active Duty Military Personnel to determine whether traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with past year drinking-related consequences. The study sample included currently-drinking personnel who had a combat deployment in the past year and were home for ≥6 months (N = 3,350). Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the incidence rate ratios of consequences, by TBI-level. Experiencing a TBI with a loss of consciousness >20 minutes was significantly associated with consequences independent of demographics, combat exposure, posttraumatic stress disorder, and binge drinking. The study’s limitations are noted. PMID:23869456

Performance and structure of single-mode bosonic codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Victor V.; Noh, Kyungjoo; Duivenvoorden, Kasper; Young, Dylan J.; Brierley, R. T.; Reinhold, Philip; Vuillot, Christophe; Li, Linshu; Shen, Chao; Girvin, S. M.; Terhal, Barbara M.; Jiang, Liang

2018-03-01

The early Gottesman, Kitaev, and Preskill (GKP) proposal for encoding a qubit in an oscillator has recently been followed by cat- and binomial-code proposals. Numerically optimized codes have also been proposed, and we introduce codes of this type here. These codes have yet to be compared using the same error model; we provide such a comparison by determining the entanglement fidelity of all codes with respect to the bosonic pure-loss channel (i.e., photon loss) after the optimal recovery operation. We then compare achievable communication rates of the combined encoding-error-recovery channel by calculating the channel's hashing bound for each code. Cat and binomial codes perform similarly, with binomial codes outperforming cat codes at small loss rates. Despite not being designed to protect against the pure-loss channel, GKP codes significantly outperform all other codes for most values of the loss rate. We show that the performance of GKP and some binomial codes increases monotonically with increasing average photon number of the codes. In order to corroborate our numerical evidence of the cat-binomial-GKP order of performance occurring at small loss rates, we analytically evaluate the quantum error-correction conditions of those codes. For GKP codes, we find an essential singularity in the entanglement fidelity in the limit of vanishing loss rate. In addition to comparing the codes, we draw parallels between binomial codes and discrete-variable systems. First, we characterize one- and two-mode binomial as well as multiqubit permutation-invariant codes in terms of spin-coherent states. Such a characterization allows us to introduce check operators and error-correction procedures for binomial codes. Second, we introduce a generalization of spin-coherent states, extending our characterization to qudit binomial codes and yielding a multiqudit code.

Dominant-Negative Inhibition of Prion Formation Diminished by Deletion Mutagenesis of the Prion Protein

PubMed Central

Zulianello, Laurence; Kaneko, Kiyotoshi; Scott, Michael; Erpel, Susanne; Han, Dong; Cohen, Fred E.; Prusiner, Stanley B.

2000-01-01

Polymorphic basic residues near the C terminus of the prion protein (PrP) in humans and sheep appear to protect against prion disease. In heterozygotes, inhibition of prion formation appears to be dominant negative and has been simulated in cultured cells persistently infected with scrapie prions. The results of nuclear magnetic resonance and mutagenesis studies indicate that specific substitutions at the C-terminal residues 167, 171, 214, and 218 of PrPC act as dominant-negative, inhibitors of PrPSc formation (K. Kaneko et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 94:10069–10074, 1997). Trafficking of substituted PrPC to caveaola-like domains or rafts by the glycolipid anchor was required for the dominant-negative phenotype; interestingly, amino acid replacements at multiple sites were less effective than single-residue substitutions. To elucidate which domains of PrPC are responsible for dominant-negative inhibition of PrPSc formation, we analyzed whether N-terminally truncated PrP(Q218K) molecules exhibited dominant-negative effects in the conversion of full-length PrPC to PrPSc. We found that the C-terminal domain of PrP is not sufficient to impede the conversion of the full-length PrPC molecule and that N-terminally truncated molecules (with residues 23 to 88 and 23 to 120 deleted) have reduced dominant-negative activity. Whether the N-terminal region of PrP acts by stabilizing the C-terminal domain of the molecule or by modulating the binding of PrPC to an auxiliary molecule that participates in PrPSc formation remains to be established. PMID:10756050

Antigen-capture blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay based on a baculovirus recombinant antigen to differentiate Transmissible gastroenteritis virus from Porcine respiratory coronavirus antibodies.

PubMed

López, Lissett; Venteo, Angel; García, Marga; Camuñas, Ana; Ranz, Ana; García, Julia; Sarraseca, Javier; Anaya, Carmen; Rueda, Paloma

2009-09-01

A new commercially available antigen-capture, blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (antigen-capture b-ELISA), based on baculovirus truncated-S recombinant protein of Transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and 3 specific monoclonal antibodies, was developed and evaluated by examining a panel of 453 positive Porcine respiratory coronavirus (PRCoV), 31 positive TGEV, and 126 negative field sera by using another commercially available differential coronavirus b-ELISA as the reference technique to differentiate TGEV- from PRCoV-induced antibodies. The recombinant S protein-based ELISA appeared to be 100% sensitive for TGEV and PRCoV detection and highly specific for TGEV and PRCoV detection (100% and 92.06%, respectively), when qualitative results (positive or negative) were compared with those of the reference technique. In variability experiments, the ELISA gave consistent results when the same serum was evaluated on different wells and different plates. These results indicated that truncated recombinant S protein is a suitable alternative to the complete virus as antigen in ELISA assays. The use of recombinant S protein as antigen offers great advantages because it is an easy-to-produce, easy-to-standardize, noninfectious antigen that does not require further purification or concentration. Those advantages represent an important improvement for antigen preparation, in comparison with other assays in which an inactivated virus from mammalian cell cultures is used.

Incorporating Truncating Variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM into the BOADICEA Breast Cancer Risk Model

PubMed Central

Lee, Andrew J.; Cunningham, Alex P.; Tischkowitz, Marc; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D.; Easton, Douglas F.; Antoniou, Antonis C.

2016-01-01

Purpose The proliferation of gene-panel testing precipitates the need for a breast cancer (BC) risk model that incorporates the effects of mutations in several genes and family history (FH). We extended the BOADICEA model to incorporate the effects of truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM. Methods The BC incidence was modelled via the explicit effects of truncating variants in BRCA1/2, PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM and other unobserved genetic effects using segregation analysis methods. Results The predicted average BC risk by age 80 for an ATM mutation carrier is 28%, 30% for CHEK2, 50% for PALB2, 74% for BRCA1 and BRCA2. However, the BC risks are predicted to increase with FH-burden. In families with mutations, predicted risks for mutation-negative members depend on both FH and the specific mutation. The reduction in BC risk after negative predictive-testing is greatest when a BRCA1 mutation is identified in the family, but for women whose relatives carry a CHEK2 or ATM mutation, the risks decrease slightly. Conclusions The model may be a valuable tool for counselling women who have undergone gene-panel testing for providing consistent risks and harmonizing their clinical management. A web-application can be used to obtain BC- risks in clinical practice (http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/). PMID:27464310

Incorporating truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM into the BOADICEA breast cancer risk model.

PubMed

Lee, Andrew J; Cunningham, Alex P; Tischkowitz, Marc; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D; Easton, Douglas F; Antoniou, Antonis C

2016-12-01

The proliferation of gene panel testing precipitates the need for a breast cancer (BC) risk model that incorporates the effects of mutations in several genes and family history (FH). We extended the BOADICEA model to incorporate the effects of truncating variants in PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM. The BC incidence was modeled via the explicit effects of truncating variants in BRCA1/2, PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM and other unobserved genetic effects using segregation analysis methods. The predicted average BC risk by age 80 for an ATM mutation carrier is 28%, 30% for CHEK2, 50% for PALB2, and 74% for BRCA1 and BRCA2. However, the BC risks are predicted to increase with FH burden. In families with mutations, predicted risks for mutation-negative members depend on both FH and the specific mutation. The reduction in BC risk after negative predictive testing is greatest when a BRCA1 mutation is identified in the family, but for women whose relatives carry a CHEK2 or ATM mutation, the risks decrease slightly. The model may be a valuable tool for counseling women who have undergone gene panel testing for providing consistent risks and harmonizing their clinical management. A Web application can be used to obtain BC risks in clinical practice (http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/).Genet Med 18 12, 1190-1198.

Resources predicting positive and negative affect during the experience of stress: a study of older Asian Indian immigrants in the United States.

PubMed

Diwan, Sadhna; Jonnalagadda, Satya S; Balaswamy, Shantha

2004-10-01

Using the life stress model of psychological well-being, in this study we examined risks and resources predicting the occurrence of both positive and negative affect among older Asian Indian immigrants who experienced stressful life events. We collected data through a telephone survey of 226 respondents (aged 50 years and older) in the Southeastern United States. We used hierarchical, negative binomial regression analyses to examine correlates of positive and negative affect. Different coping resources influenced positive and negative affect when stressful life events were controlled for. Being female was a common risk factor for poorer positive and increased negative affect. Satisfaction with friendships and a cultural or ethnic identity that is either bicultural or more American were predictive of greater positive affect. Greater religiosity and increased mastery were resources predicting less negative affect. Cognitive and structural interventions that increase opportunities for social integration, increasing mastery, and addressing spiritual concerns are discussed as ways of coping with stress to improve the well-being of individuals in this immigrant community.

Distribution of chewing lice upon the polygynous peacock Pavo cristatus.

PubMed

Stewart, I R; Clark, F; Petrie, M

1996-04-01

An opportunistic survey of louse distribution upon the peacock Pavo cristatus was undertaken following a cull of 23 birds from an English zoo. After complete skin and feather dissolution, 2 species of lice were retrieved, Goniodes pavonis and Amyrsidea minuta. The distribution of both louse species could be described by a negative binomial model. The significance of this is discussed in relation to transmission dynamics of lice in the atypical avian mating system found in the peacock, which involves no male parental care.

A Novel Method to Screen for Dominant Negative ATM Mutations in Familial Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-04-01

carry dominant negative mutation in ATM due to natural variation amongst LCLs. Microarrays have been performed to determine differences in gene expression... genes that are altered in their expression in ATMmutation carriers. The validation of this data in carriers of different ATM mutation indicated that the...heterozygous carriers of T727 1 G mutation display a gene expression phenotype that appears identical to carriers of protein truncating mutations in

Expression and characterization of an N-truncated form of the NifA protein of Azospirillum brasilense.

PubMed

Nishikawa, C Y; Araújo, L M; Kadowaki, M A S; Monteiro, R A; Steffens, M B R; Pedrosa, F O; Souza, E M; Chubatsu, L S

2012-02-01

Azospirillum brasilense is a nitrogen-fixing bacterium associated with important agricultural crops such as rice, wheat and maize. The expression of genes responsible for nitrogen fixation (nif genes) in this bacterium is dependent on the transcriptional activator NifA. This protein contains three structural domains: the N-terminal domain is responsible for the negative control by fixed nitrogen; the central domain interacts with the RNA polymerase σ(54) co-factor and the C-terminal domain is involved in DNA binding. The central and C-terminal domains are linked by the interdomain linker (IDL). A conserved four-cysteine motif encompassing the end of the central domain and the IDL is probably involved in the oxygen-sensitivity of NifA. In the present study, we have expressed, purified and characterized an N-truncated form of A. brasilense NifA. The protein expression was carried out in Escherichia coli and the N-truncated NifA protein was purified by chromatography using an affinity metal-chelating resin followed by a heparin-bound resin. Protein homogeneity was determined by densitometric analysis. The N-truncated protein activated in vivo nifH::lacZ transcription regardless of fixed nitrogen concentration (absence or presence of 20 mM NH(4)Cl) but only under low oxygen levels. On the other hand, the aerobically purified N-truncated NifA protein bound to the nifB promoter, as demonstrated by an electrophoretic mobility shift assay, implying that DNA-binding activity is not strictly controlled by oxygen levels. Our data show that, while the N-truncated NifA is inactive in vivo under aerobic conditions, it still retains DNA-binding activity, suggesting that the oxidized form of NifA bound to DNA is not competent to activate transcription.

Expression and characterization of an N-truncated form of the NifA protein of Azospirillum brasilense

PubMed Central

Nishikawa, C.Y.; Araújo, L.M.; Kadowaki, M.A.S.; Monteiro, R.A.; Steffens, M.B.R.; Pedrosa, F.O.; Souza, E.M.; Chubatsu, L.S.

2012-01-01

Azospirillum brasilense is a nitrogen-fixing bacterium associated with important agricultural crops such as rice, wheat and maize. The expression of genes responsible for nitrogen fixation (nif genes) in this bacterium is dependent on the transcriptional activator NifA. This protein contains three structural domains: the N-terminal domain is responsible for the negative control by fixed nitrogen; the central domain interacts with the RNA polymerase σ54 factor and the C-terminal domain is involved in DNA binding. The central and C-terminal domains are linked by the interdomain linker (IDL). A conserved four-cysteine motif encompassing the end of the central domain and the IDL is probably involved in the oxygen-sensitivity of NifA. In the present study, we have expressed, purified and characterized an N-truncated form of A. brasilense NifA. The protein expression was carried out in Escherichia coli and the N-truncated NifA protein was purified by chromatography using an affinity metal-chelating resin followed by a heparin-bound resin. Protein homogeneity was determined by densitometric analysis. The N-truncated protein activated in vivo nifH::lacZ transcription regardless of fixed nitrogen concentration (absence or presence of 20 mM NH4Cl) but only under low oxygen levels. On the other hand, the aerobically purified N-truncated NifA protein bound to the nifB promoter, as demonstrated by an electrophoretic mobility shift assay, implying that DNA-binding activity is not strictly controlled by oxygen levels. Our data show that, while the N-truncated NifA is inactive in vivo under aerobic conditions, it still retains DNA-binding activity, suggesting that the oxidized form of NifA bound to DNA is not competent to activate transcription. PMID:22267004

Rare, protein-truncating variants in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2, but not XRCC2, are associated with increased breast cancer risks

PubMed Central

Decker, Brennan; Allen, Jamie; Luccarini, Craig; Pooley, Karen A; Shah, Mitul; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Ahmed, Shahana; Baynes, Caroline; Conroy, Don M; Brown, Judith; Luben, Robert; Ostrander, Elaine A; Pharoah, Paul DP; Dunning, Alison M; Easton, Douglas F

2017-01-01

Background Breast cancer (BC) is the most common malignancy in women and has a major heritable component. The risks associated with most rare susceptibility variants are not well estimated. To better characterise the contribution of variants in ATM, CHEK2, PALB2 and XRCC2, we sequenced their coding regions in 13 087 BC cases and 5488 controls from East Anglia, UK. Methods Gene coding regions were enriched via PCR, sequenced, variant called and filtered for quality. ORs for BC risk were estimated separately for carriers of truncating variants and of rare missense variants, which were further subdivided by functional domain and pathogenicity as predicted by four in silico algorithms. Results Truncating variants in PALB2 (OR=4.69, 95% CI 2.27 to 9.68), ATM (OR=3.26; 95% CI 1.82 to 6.46) and CHEK2 (OR=3.11; 95% CI 2.15 to 4.69), but not XRCC2 (OR=0.94; 95% CI 0.26 to 4.19) were associated with increased BC risk. Truncating variants in ATM and CHEK2 were more strongly associated with risk of oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive than ER-negative disease, while those in PALB2 were associated with similar risks for both subtypes. There was also some evidence that missense variants in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2 may contribute to BC risk, but larger studies are necessary to quantify the magnitude of this effect. Conclusions Truncating variants in PALB2 are associated with a higher risk of BC than those in ATM or CHEK2. A substantial risk of BC due to truncating XRCC2 variants can be excluded. PMID:28779002

Problems on Divisibility of Binomial Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osler, Thomas J.; Smoak, James

2004-01-01

Twelve unusual problems involving divisibility of the binomial coefficients are represented in this article. The problems are listed in "The Problems" section. All twelve problems have short solutions which are listed in "The Solutions" section. These problems could be assigned to students in any course in which the binomial theorem and Pascal's…

Application of binomial-edited CPMG to shale characterization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Washburn, Kathryn E.; Birdwell, Justin E.

2014-01-01

Unconventional shale resources may contain a significant amount of hydrogen in organic solids such as kerogen, but it is not possible to directly detect these solids with many NMR systems. Binomial-edited pulse sequences capitalize on magnetization transfer between solids, semi-solids, and liquids to provide an indirect method of detecting solid organic materials in shales. When the organic solids can be directly measured, binomial-editing helps distinguish between different phases. We applied a binomial-edited CPMG pulse sequence to a range of natural and experimentally-altered shale samples. The most substantial signal loss is seen in shales rich in organic solids while fluids associated with inorganic pores seem essentially unaffected. This suggests that binomial-editing is a potential method for determining fluid locations, solid organic content, and kerogen–bitumen discrimination.

Genomic analysis of diffuse pediatric low-grade gliomas identifies recurrent oncogenic truncating rearrangements in the transcription factor MYBL1

PubMed Central

Ramkissoon, Lori A.; Horowitz, Peleg M.; Craig, Justin M.; Ramkissoon, Shakti H.; Rich, Benjamin E.; Schumacher, Steven E.; McKenna, Aaron; Lawrence, Michael S.; Bergthold, Guillaume; Brastianos, Priscilla K.; Tabak, Barbara; Ducar, Matthew D.; Van Hummelen, Paul; MacConaill, Laura E.; Pouissant-Young, Tina; Cho, Yoon-Jae; Taha, Hala; Mahmoud, Madeha; Bowers, Daniel C.; Margraf, Linda; Tabori, Uri; Hawkins, Cynthia; Packer, Roger J.; Hill, D. Ashley; Pomeroy, Scott L.; Eberhart, Charles G.; Dunn, Ian F.; Goumnerova, Liliana; Getz, Gad; Chan, Jennifer A.; Santagata, Sandro; Hahn, William C.; Stiles, Charles D.; Ligon, Azra H.; Kieran, Mark W.; Beroukhim, Rameen; Ligon, Keith L.

2013-01-01

Pediatric low-grade gliomas (PLGGs) are among the most common solid tumors in children but, apart from BRAF kinase mutations or duplications in specific subclasses, few genetic driver events are known. Diffuse PLGGs comprise a set of uncommon subtypes that exhibit invasive growth and are therefore especially challenging clinically. We performed high-resolution copy-number analysis on 44 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded diffuse PLGGs to identify recurrent alterations. Diffuse PLGGs exhibited fewer such alterations than adult low-grade gliomas, but we identified several significantly recurrent events. The most significant event, 8q13.1 gain, was observed in 28% of diffuse astrocytoma grade IIs and resulted in partial duplication of the transcription factor MYBL1 with truncation of its C-terminal negative-regulatory domain. A similar recurrent deletion-truncation breakpoint was identified in two angiocentric gliomas in the related gene v-myb avian myeloblastosis viral oncogene homolog (MYB) on 6q23.3. Whole-genome sequencing of a MYBL1-rearranged diffuse astrocytoma grade II demonstrated MYBL1 tandem duplication and few other events. Truncated MYBL1 transcripts identified in this tumor induced anchorage-independent growth in 3T3 cells and tumor formation in nude mice. Truncated transcripts were also expressed in two additional tumors with MYBL1 partial duplication. Our results define clinically relevant molecular subclasses of diffuse PLGGs and highlight a potential role for the MYB family in the biology of low-grade gliomas. PMID:23633565

WNK4 enhances the degradation of NCC through a sortilin-mediated lysosomal pathway.

PubMed

Zhou, Bo; Zhuang, Jieqiu; Gu, Dingying; Wang, Hua; Cebotaru, Liudmila; Guggino, William B; Cai, Hui

2010-01-01

WNK kinase is a serine/threonine kinase that plays an important role in electrolyte homeostasis. WNK4 significantly inhibits the surface expression of the sodium chloride co-transporter (NCC) by enhancing the degradation of NCC through a lysosomal pathway, but the mechanisms underlying this trafficking are unknown. Here, we investigated the effect of the lysosomal targeting receptor sortilin on NCC expression and degradation. In Cos-7 cells, we observed that the presence of WNK4 reduced the steady-state amount of NCC by approximately half. Co-transfection with truncated sortilin (a dominant negative mutant) prevented this WNK4-induced reduction in NCC. NCC immunoprecipitated with both wild-type sortilin and, to a lesser extent, truncated sortilin. Immunostaining revealed that WNK4 increased the co-localization of NCC with the lysosomal marker cathepsin D, and NCC co-localized with wild-type sortilin, truncated sortilin, and WNK4 in the perinuclear region. These findings suggest that WNK4 promotes NCC targeting to the lysosome for degradation via a mechanism involving sortilin.

Optimization and validation of indirect ELISA using truncated TssB protein for the serodiagnosis of glanders amongst equines.

PubMed

Singha, Harisankar; Malik, Praveen; Goyal, Sachin K; Khurana, Sandip K; Mukhopadhyay, Chiranjay; Eshwara, Vandana K; Singh, Raj K

2014-01-01

To express truncated TssB protein of Burkholderia mallei and to evaluate its diagnostic efficacy for serological detection of glanders among equines. In an attempt to develop recombinant protein based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), N-terminal 200 amino acid sequences of B. mallei TssB protein-a type 6 secretory effector protein--were expressed in prokaryotic expression system. Diagnostic potential of recombinant TssB protein was evaluated in indirect ELISA using a panel of glanders positive (n = 49), negative (n = 30), and field serum samples (n = 1811). Cross-reactivity of the assay was assessed with equine disease control serum and human melioidosis positive serum. In comparison to CFT, diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of ELISA were 99.7% and 100%, respectively. The indirect ELISA method using the truncated TssB offered safer and more rapid and efficient means of serodiagnosis of glanders in equines. These data highlight the use of TssB as potential diagnostic antigen for serological diagnosis of glanders.

A Three-Parameter Generalisation of the Beta-Binomial Distribution with Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-01

York. Rust, R.T. and Klompmaker, J.E. (1981). Improving the estimation procedure for the beta binomial t.v. exposure model. Journal of Marketing ... Research . 18, 442-448. Sabavala, D.J. and Morrison, D.G. (1977). Television show loyalty: a beta- binomial model using recall data. Journal of Advertiuing

Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S.

2018-03-01

A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band.

Relating river discharge and water temperature to the recruitment of age‐0 White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus Richardson, 1836) in the Columbia River using over‐dispersed catch data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Counihan, Timothy D.; Chapman, Colin G.

2018-01-01

The goals were to (i) determine if river discharge and water temperature during various early life history stages were predictors of age‐0 White Sturgeon, Acipenser transmontanus, recruitment, and (ii) provide an example of how over‐dispersed catch data, including data with many zero observations, can be used to better understand the effects of regulated rivers on the productivity of depressed sturgeon populations. An information theoretic approach was used to develop and select negative binomial and zero‐inflated negative binomial models that model the relation of age‐0 White Sturgeon survey data from three contiguous Columbia River reservoirs to river discharge and water temperature during spawning, egg incubation, larval, and post‐larval phases. Age‐0 White Sturgeon were collected with small mesh gill nets in The Dalles and John Day reservoirs from 1997 to 2014 and a bottom trawl in Bonneville Reservoir from 1989 to 2006. Results suggest that seasonal river discharge was positively correlated with age‐0 recruitment; notably that discharge, 16 June–31 July was positively correlated to age‐0 recruitment in all three reservoirs. The best approximating models for two of the three reservoirs also suggest that seasonal water temperature may be a determinant of age‐0 recruitment. Our research demonstrates how over‐dispersed catch data can be used to better understand the effects of environmental conditions on sturgeon populations caused by the construction and operation of dams.

Application of the Hyper-Poisson Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crashes.

PubMed

Khazraee, S Hadi; Sáez-Castillo, Antonio Jose; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Lord, Dominique

2015-05-01

The hyper-Poisson distribution can handle both over- and underdispersion, and its generalized linear model formulation allows the dispersion of the distribution to be observation-specific and dependent on model covariates. This study's objective is to examine the potential applicability of a newly proposed generalized linear model framework for the hyper-Poisson distribution in analyzing motor vehicle crash count data. The hyper-Poisson generalized linear model was first fitted to intersection crash data from Toronto, characterized by overdispersion, and then to crash data from railway-highway crossings in Korea, characterized by underdispersion. The results of this study are promising. When fitted to the Toronto data set, the goodness-of-fit measures indicated that the hyper-Poisson model with a variable dispersion parameter provided a statistical fit as good as the traditional negative binomial model. The hyper-Poisson model was also successful in handling the underdispersed data from Korea; the model performed as well as the gamma probability model and the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model previously developed for the same data set. The advantages of the hyper-Poisson model studied in this article are noteworthy. Unlike the negative binomial model, which has difficulties in handling underdispersed data, the hyper-Poisson model can handle both over- and underdispersed crash data. Although not a major issue for the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model, the effect of each variable on the expected mean of crashes is easily interpretable in the case of this new model. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Epidemiology of scrub typhus and influencing factors in Yunnan province, 2006-2013].

PubMed

Sun, Y; Shi, C; Li, X L; Fang, L Q; Cao, W C

2018-01-10

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhu s and influencing factors in Yunnan province, and provide further information for the prevention and control of scrub typhus. Methods: Based on the incidence data of scrub typhus reported in Yunnan from 2006 to 2013, the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus were analyzed and related environmental factors were identified with panel negative binomial regression model. Results: A total of 8 980 scrub typhus cases were reported during 2006-2013 in Yunnan. The average annual incidence was 2.46/100 000, with an uptrend observed. Natural focus expansion was found, affecting 71.3% of the counties in 2013. The epidemic mainly occurred in summer and autumn with the incidence peak during July-October. The annual incidence was higher in females than in males. More cases occurred in children and farmers, the proportions of cases in farmers and pre-school aged children showed an obvious increase. Panel negative binomial regression model indicated that the transmission risk of scrub typhus was positive associated with monthly temperature and monthly relative humidity. Furthermore, an "U" pattern between the risk and the increased coverage of cropland and grassland as well as an "inverted-U" pattern between the risk and increased coverage of shrub were observed. Conclusion: It is necessary to strengthen the scrub typhus surveillance in warm and moist areas as well as the areas with high coverage of cropland and grassland in Yunnan, and the health education in children and farmers who are at high risk.

Use of clinical practice guidelines by dentists: findings from the Japanese dental practice-based research network.

PubMed

Kakudate, Naoki; Yokoyama, Yoko; Sumida, Futoshi; Matsumoto, Yuki; Gordan, Valeria V; Gilbert, Gregg H

2017-02-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) examine differences in the use of dental clinical practice guidelines among Japanese dentists, and (2) identify characteristics associated with the number of guidelines used by participating dentists. We conducted a cross-sectional study consisting of a questionnaire survey in Japan between July 2014 and May 2015. The study queried dentists working in outpatient dental practices who are affiliated with the Dental Practice-Based Research Network Japan (n = 148). They were asked whether they have used each of 15 Japanese dental clinical guidelines. Associations between the number of guidelines used by participants and specific characteristics were analysed via negative binomial regression analysis. The mean number of guidelines used by participating dentists was 2.5 ± 2.9 [standard deviation (SD)]. Rate of use of guidelines showed substantial variation, from 5% to 34% among dentists. The proportion of dentists that used guidelines was the highest among oral medicine specialists, who had the highest proportion for 10 of 15 guidelines. Negative binomial regression analysis identified three factors significantly associated with the number of guidelines used: 'years since graduation from dental school', 'specialty practice' and 'practice busyness'. These results suggest that the use of clinical practice guidelines by Japanese dentists may still be inadequate. Training in the use of the guidelines could be given to dental students as undergraduate education and to young clinicians as continuing education. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A preliminary investigation of the relationships between historical crash and naturalistic driving.

PubMed

Pande, Anurag; Chand, Sai; Saxena, Neeraj; Dixit, Vinayak; Loy, James; Wolshon, Brian; Kent, Joshua D

2017-04-01

This paper describes a project that was undertaken using naturalistic driving data collected via Global Positioning System (GPS) devices to demonstrate a proof-of-concept for proactive safety assessments of crash-prone locations. The main hypothesis for the study is that the segments where drivers have to apply hard braking (higher jerks) more frequently might be the "unsafe" segments with more crashes over a long-term. The linear referencing methodology in ArcMap was used to link the GPS data with roadway characteristic data of US Highway 101 northbound (NB) and southbound (SB) in San Luis Obispo, California. The process used to merge GPS data with quarter-mile freeway segments for traditional crash frequency analysis is also discussed in the paper. A negative binomial regression analyses showed that proportion of high magnitude jerks while decelerating on freeway segments (from the driving data) was significantly related with the long-term crash frequency of those segments. A random parameter negative binomial model with uniformly distributed parameter for ADT and a fixed parameter for jerk provided a statistically significant estimate for quarter-mile segments. The results also indicated that roadway curvature and the presence of auxiliary lane are not significantly related with crash frequency for the highway segments under consideration. The results from this exploration are promising since the data used to derive the explanatory variable(s) can be collected using most off-the-shelf GPS devices, including many smartphones. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GENE-Counter: A Computational Pipeline for the Analysis of RNA-Seq Data for Gene Expression Differences

PubMed Central

Di, Yanming; Schafer, Daniel W.; Wilhelm, Larry J.; Fox, Samuel E.; Sullivan, Christopher M.; Curzon, Aron D.; Carrington, James C.; Mockler, Todd C.; Chang, Jeff H.

2011-01-01

GENE-counter is a complete Perl-based computational pipeline for analyzing RNA-Sequencing (RNA-Seq) data for differential gene expression. In addition to its use in studying transcriptomes of eukaryotic model organisms, GENE-counter is applicable for prokaryotes and non-model organisms without an available genome reference sequence. For alignments, GENE-counter is configured for CASHX, Bowtie, and BWA, but an end user can use any Sequence Alignment/Map (SAM)-compliant program of preference. To analyze data for differential gene expression, GENE-counter can be run with any one of three statistics packages that are based on variations of the negative binomial distribution. The default method is a new and simple statistical test we developed based on an over-parameterized version of the negative binomial distribution. GENE-counter also includes three different methods for assessing differentially expressed features for enriched gene ontology (GO) terms. Results are transparent and data are systematically stored in a MySQL relational database to facilitate additional analyses as well as quality assessment. We used next generation sequencing to generate a small-scale RNA-Seq dataset derived from the heavily studied defense response of Arabidopsis thaliana and used GENE-counter to process the data. Collectively, the support from analysis of microarrays as well as the observed and substantial overlap in results from each of the three statistics packages demonstrates that GENE-counter is well suited for handling the unique characteristics of small sample sizes and high variability in gene counts. PMID:21998647

Revealing Word Order: Using Serial Position in Binomials to Predict Properties of the Speaker

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iliev, Rumen; Smirnova, Anastasia

2016-01-01

Three studies test the link between word order in binomials and psychological and demographic characteristics of a speaker. While linguists have already suggested that psychological, cultural and societal factors are important in choosing word order in binomials, the vast majority of relevant research was focused on general factors and on broadly…

Jump-and-return sandwiches: A new family of binomial-like selective inversion sequences with improved performance.

PubMed

Brenner, Tom; Chen, Johnny; Stait-Gardner, Tim; Zheng, Gang; Matsukawa, Shingo; Price, William S

2018-03-01

A new family of binomial-like inversion sequences, named jump-and-return sandwiches (JRS), has been developed by inserting a binomial-like sequence into a standard jump-and-return sequence, discovered through use of a stochastic Genetic Algorithm optimisation. Compared to currently used binomial-like inversion sequences (e.g., 3-9-19 and W5), the new sequences afford wider inversion bands and narrower non-inversion bands with an equal number of pulses. As an example, two jump-and-return sandwich 10-pulse sequences achieved 95% inversion at offsets corresponding to 9.4% and 10.3% of the non-inversion band spacing, compared to 14.7% for the binomial-like W5 inversion sequence, i.e., they afforded non-inversion bands about two thirds the width of the W5 non-inversion band. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seizure variables and their relationship to genotype and functional abilities in the CDKL5 disorder.

PubMed

Fehr, Stephanie; Wong, Kingsley; Chin, Richard; Williams, Simon; de Klerk, Nick; Forbes, David; Krishnaraj, Rahul; Christodoulou, John; Downs, Jenny; Leonard, Helen

2016-11-22

To investigate seizure outcomes and their relationships to genotype and functional abilities in individuals with the cyclin-dependent kinase-like-5 (CDKL5) disorder. Using the International CDKL5 Disorder Database, we identified 172 cases with a pathogenic CDKL5 mutation. We categorized individual mutations into 4 groups based on predicted structural and functional consequences. Negative binomial regression was used to model the linear association between current seizure rate and mutation group, current level of assistance required to walk 10 steps, and the highest level of expressive communication used to convey refusal or request. All but 3 (169/172) patients had a history of epilepsy. The median age at seizure onset was 6 weeks (range 1 week-1.5 years) and the median seizure rate at ascertainment was 2 per day (range 0-20 per day). After adjusting for walking ability and confounders including use or otherwise of polytherapy, seizure rate was lower in those with truncating mutations between aa172 and aa781 compared to those with no functional protein (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35-0.93). Ability to walk and use of spoken language were associated with lower rates of current seizures when compared to those with the least ability after adjusting for genotype (walking: IRR 0.62; 95% CI 0.39-0.99, communication: IRR 0.48; 95% CI 0.23-1.02). At a median age at questionnaire completion of 5 years, those previously treated with corticosteroids had more frequent seizures than those who have never been treated, whether or not there was a history of infantile spasms. Epilepsy is pervasive but not mandatory for the CDKL5 disorder. Genotype and functional abilities were related to seizure frequency, which appears refractory to antiepileptic drugs. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Inpatient care of the elderly in Brazil and India: assessing social inequalities.

PubMed

Channon, Andrew Amos; Andrade, Monica Viegas; Noronha, Kenya; Leone, Tiziana; Dilip, T R

2012-12-01

The rapidly growing older adult populations in Brazil and India present major challenges for health systems in these countries, especially with regard to the equitable provision of inpatient care. The objective of this study was to contrast inequalities in both the receipt of inpatient care and the length of time that care was received among adults aged over 60 in two large countries with different modes of health service delivery. Using the Brazilian National Household Survey from 2003 and the Indian National Sample Survey Organisation survey from 2004 inequalities by wealth (measured by income in Brazil and consumption in India) were assessed using concentration curves and indices. Inequalities were also examined through the use of zero-truncated negative binomial models, studying differences in receipt of care and length of stay by region, health insurance, education and reported health status. Results indicated that there was no evidence of inequality in Brazil for both receipt and length of stay by income per capita. However, in India there was a pro-rich bias in the receipt of care, although once care was received there was no difference by consumption per capita for the length of stay. In both countries the higher educated and those with health insurance were more likely to receive care, while the higher educated had longer stays in hospital in Brazil. The health system reforms that have been undertaken in Brazil could be credited as a driver for reducing healthcare inequalities amongst the elderly, while the significant differences by wealth in India shows that reform is still needed to ensure the poor have access to inpatient care. Health reforms that move towards a more public funding model of service delivery in India may reduce inequality in elderly inpatient care in the country. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender-Specific Determinants and Patterns of Online Health Information Seeking: Results From a Representative German Health Survey

PubMed Central

Baumann, Eva; Czerwinski, Fabian

2017-01-01

Background Online health information-seeking behavior (OHISB) is currently a widespread and common behavior that has been described as an important prerequisite of empowerment and health literacy. Although demographic factors such as socioeconomic status (SES), age, and gender have been identified as important determinants of OHISB, research is limited regarding the gender-specific motivational determinants of OHISB and differences between women and men in the use of online resources for health information purposes. Objective The aim of this study was to identify gender-specific determinants and patterns of OHISB by analyzing data from a representative German sample of adults (N=1728) with special attention to access and frequency of use as well as topics and sources of OHISB. Methods We employed a 2-step analysis, that is, after exploring differences between users and nonusers of online health information using logistic regression models, we highlighted gender-specific determinants of the frequency of OHISB by applying zero-truncated negative binomial models. Results Age (odds ratio, OR for females=0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99) and degree of satisfaction with one’s general practitioner (GP) (OR for males=0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.92) were gender-specific determinants of access to OHISB. Regarding the frequency of OHISB, daily Internet use (incidence rate ratio, IRR=1.67, 95% CI 1.19-2.33) and a strong interest in health topics (IRR=1.45, 95% CI 1.19-1.77) were revealed to be more important predictors than SES (IRR for high SES=1.25, 95% CI 0.91-1.73). Conclusions Users indicate that the Internet seems to be capable of providing a valuable source of informational support and patient empowerment. Increasing the potential value of the Internet as a source for health literacy and patient empowerment requires need-oriented and gender-specific health communication efforts, media, and information strategies. PMID:28377367

Negative Urgency, Distress Tolerance, and Substance Abuse Among College Students

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Alison J.; Milich, Richard; Lynam, Donald R.; Charnigo, Richard J.

2012-01-01

Objective Negative affect has been consistently linked with substance use/problems in prior research. The present study sought to build upon these findings by exploring how an individual’s characteristic responding to negative affect impacts substance abuse risk. Trait negative affect was examined in relation to substance abuse outcomes along with two variables tapping into response to negative affect: Distress Tolerance, an individual’s perceived ability to tolerate negative affect, and Negative Urgency, the tendency to act rashly while experiencing distress. Method Participants were 525 first-year college students (48.1% male, 81.1% Caucasian), who completed self-report measures assessing personality traits and alcohol-related problems, and a structured interview assessing past and current substance use. Relations were tested using Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial regression models, and each of the personality variables was tested in a model on its own, and in a model where all three traits were accounted for. Results Negative Urgency emerged as the best predictor, relating to every one of the substance use outcome variables even when trait negative affect and Distress Tolerance were accounted for. Conclusions These findings suggest that Negative Urgency is an important factor to consider in developing prevention and intervention efforts aimed at reducing substance use and problems. PMID:22698894

Cyclical absenteeism among private sector, public sector and self-employed workers.

PubMed

Pfeifer, Christian

2013-03-01

This research note analyzes differences in the number of absent working days and doctor visits and in their cyclicality between private sector, public sector and self-employed workers. For this purpose, I used large-scale German survey data for the years 1995 to 2007 to estimate random effects negative binomial (count data) models. The main findings are as follows. (i) Public sector workers have on average more absent working days than private sector and self-employed workers. Self-employed workers have fewer absent working days and doctor visits than dependent employed workers. (ii) The regional unemployment rate is on average negatively correlated with the number of absent working days among private and public sector workers as well as among self-employed men. The correlations between regional unemployment rate and doctor visits are only significantly negative among private sector workers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

Autoantibodies to N-terminally truncated GAD improve clinical phenotyping of individuals with adult-onset diabetes: Action LADA 12.

PubMed

Achenbach, Peter; Hawa, Mohammed I; Krause, Stephanie; Lampasona, Vito; Jerram, Samuel T; Williams, Alistair J K; Bonifacio, Ezio; Ziegler, Anette G; Leslie, R David

2018-07-01

Adult-onset type 1 diabetes, in which the 65 kDa isoform of GAD (GAD65) is a major autoantigen, has a broad clinical phenotype encompassing variable need for insulin therapy. This study aimed to evaluate whether autoantibodies against N-terminally truncated GAD65 more closely defined a type 1 diabetes phenotype associated with insulin therapy. Of 1114 participants with adult-onset diabetes from the Action LADA (latent autoimmune diabetes in adults) study with sufficient sera, we selected those designated type 1 (n = 511) or type 2 diabetes (n = 603) and retested the samples in radiobinding assays for human full-length GAD65 autoantibodies (f-GADA) and N-terminally truncated (amino acids 96-585) GAD65 autoantibodies (t-GADA). Individuals' clinical phenotypes were analysed according to antibody binding patterns. Overall, 478 individuals were f-GADA-positive, 431 were t-GADA-positive and 628 were negative in both assays. Risk of insulin treatment was augmented in t-GADA-positive individuals (OR 4.69 [95% CI 3.57, 6.17]) compared with f-GADA-positive individuals (OR 3.86 [95% CI 2.95, 5.06]), irrespective of diabetes duration. Of 55 individuals who were f-GADA-positive but t-GADA-negative, i.e. with antibody binding restricted to the N-terminus of GAD65, the phenotype was similar to type 2 diabetes with low risk of progression to insulin treatment. Compared with these individuals with N-terminal GAD65-restricted GADA, t-GADA-positive individuals were younger at diagnosis (p = 0.005), leaner (p < 0.0001) and more often had multiple diabetes-associated autoantibodies (28.3% vs 7.3%; p = 0.0005). In individuals with adult-onset diabetes, presence of N-terminally truncated GAD65 autoantibodies is associated with the clinical phenotype of autoimmune type 1 diabetes and predicts insulin therapy.

On the p, q-binomial distribution and the Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundow, P. H.; Rosengren, A.

2010-08-01

We employ p, q-binomial coefficients, a generalisation of the binomial coefficients, to describe the magnetisation distributions of the Ising model. For the complete graph this distribution corresponds exactly to the limit case p = q. We apply our investigation to the simple d-dimensional lattices for d = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and fit p, q-binomial distributions to our data, some of which are exact but most are sampled. For d = 1 and d = 5, the magnetisation distributions are remarkably well-fitted by p,q-binomial distributions. For d = 4 we are only slightly less successful, while for d = 2, 3 we see some deviations (with exceptions!) between the p, q-binomial and the Ising distribution. However, at certain temperatures near T c the statistical moments of the fitted distribution agree with the moments of the sampled data within the precision of sampling. We begin the paper by giving results of the behaviour of the p, q-distribution and its moment growth exponents given a certain parameterisation of p, q. Since the moment exponents are known for the Ising model (or at least approximately for d = 3) we can predict how p, q should behave and compare this to our measured p, q. The results speak in favour of the p, q-binomial distribution's correctness regarding its general behaviour in comparison to the Ising model. The full extent to which they correctly model the Ising distribution, however, is not settled.

Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

PubMed

Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

2008-03-01

There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

Assessment of some important factors affecting the singing-ground survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tautin, J.

1982-01-01

A brief history of the procedures used to analyze singing-ground survey data is outlined. Some weaknesses associated with the analytical procedures are discussed, and preliminary results of efforts to improve the procedures are presented. The most significant finding to date is that counts made by new observers need not be omitted when calculating an index of the woodcock population. Also, the distribution of woodcock heard singing, with respect to time after sunset, affirms the appropriateness of recommended starting times for counting woodcock. Woodcock count data fit the negative binomial probability distribution.

Population Characteristics and the Nature of Egg Shells of two Phthirapteran Species Parasitizing Indian Cattle Egrets

PubMed Central

Ahmad, Aftab; Khan, Vikram; Badola, Smita; Arya, Gaurav; Bansal, Nayanci; Saxena, A. K.

2010-01-01

The prevalence, intensities of infestation, range of infestation and population composition of two phthirapteran species, Ardeicola expallidus Blagoveshtchensky (Phthiraptera: Philopteridae) and Ciconiphilus decimfasciatus Boisduval and Lacordaire (Menoponidae) on seventy cattle egrets were recorded during August 2004 to March 2005, in India. The frequency distribution patterns of both the species were skewed but did not correspond to the negative binomial model. The oviposition sites, egg laying patterns and the nature of the eggs of the two species were markedly different. PMID:21067416

Stochastic static fault slip inversion from geodetic data with non-negativity and bound constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocquet, J.-M.

2018-07-01

Despite surface displacements observed by geodesy are linear combinations of slip at faults in an elastic medium, determining the spatial distribution of fault slip remains a ill-posed inverse problem. A widely used approach to circumvent the illness of the inversion is to add regularization constraints in terms of smoothing and/or damping so that the linear system becomes invertible. However, the choice of regularization parameters is often arbitrary, and sometimes leads to significantly different results. Furthermore, the resolution analysis is usually empirical and cannot be made independently of the regularization. The stochastic approach of inverse problems provides a rigorous framework where the a priori information about the searched parameters is combined with the observations in order to derive posterior probabilities of the unkown parameters. Here, I investigate an approach where the prior probability density function (pdf) is a multivariate Gaussian function, with single truncation to impose positivity of slip or double truncation to impose positivity and upper bounds on slip for interseismic modelling. I show that the joint posterior pdf is similar to the linear untruncated Gaussian case and can be expressed as a truncated multivariate normal (TMVN) distribution. The TMVN form can then be used to obtain semi-analytical formulae for the single, 2-D or n-D marginal pdf. The semi-analytical formula involves the product of a Gaussian by an integral term that can be evaluated using recent developments in TMVN probabilities calculations. Posterior mean and covariance can also be efficiently derived. I show that the maximum posterior (MAP) can be obtained using a non-negative least-squares algorithm for the single truncated case or using the bounded-variable least-squares algorithm for the double truncated case. I show that the case of independent uniform priors can be approximated using TMVN. The numerical equivalence to Bayesian inversions using Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) sampling is shown for a synthetic example and a real case for interseismic modelling in Central Peru. The TMVN method overcomes several limitations of the Bayesian approach using MCMC sampling. First, the need of computer power is largely reduced. Second, unlike Bayesian MCMC-based approach, marginal pdf, mean, variance or covariance are obtained independently one from each other. Third, the probability and cumulative density functions can be obtained with any density of points. Finally, determining the MAP is extremely fast.

Robin problems with a general potential and a superlinear reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papageorgiou, Nikolaos S.; Rădulescu, Vicenţiu D.; Repovš, Dušan D.

2017-09-01

We consider semilinear Robin problems driven by the negative Laplacian plus an indefinite potential and with a superlinear reaction term which need not satisfy the Ambrosetti-Rabinowitz condition. We prove existence and multiplicity theorems (producing also an infinity of smooth solutions) using variational tools, truncation and perturbation techniques and Morse theory (critical groups).

Neighborhood educational disparities in active commuting among women: the effect of distance between the place of residence and the place of work/study (an ACTI-Cités study).

PubMed

Perchoux, Camille; Nazare, Julie-Anne; Benmarhnia, Tarik; Salze, Paul; Feuillet, Thierry; Hercberg, Serge; Hess, Franck; Menai, Mehdi; Weber, Christiane; Charreire, Hélène; Enaux, Christophe; Oppert, Jean-Michel; Simon, Chantal

2017-06-12

Active transportation has been associated with favorable health outcomes. Previous research highlighted the influence of neighborhood educational level on active transportation. However, little is known regarding the effect of commuting distance on social disparities in active commuting. In this regard, women have been poorly studied. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the relationship between neighborhood educational level and active commuting, and to assess whether the commuting distance modifies this relationship in adult women. This cross-sectional study is based on a subsample of women from the Nutrinet-Santé web-cohort (N = 1169). Binomial, log-binomial and negative binomial regressions were used to assess the associations between neighborhood education level and (i) the likelihood of reporting any active commuting time, and (ii) the share of commuting time made by active transportation modes. Potential effect measure modification of distance to work on the previous associations was assessed both on the additive and the multiplicative scales. Neighborhood education level was positively associated with the probability of reporting any active commuting time (relative risk = 1.774; p < 0.05) and the share of commuting time spent active (relative risk = 1.423; p < 0.05). The impact of neighborhood education was greater at long distances to work for both outcomes. Our results suggest that neighborhood educational disparities in active commuting tend to increase with commuting distance among women. Further research is needed to provide geographically driven guidance for health promotion intervention aiming at reducing disparities in active transportation among socioeconomic groups.

Identification of a negative regulatory region for the exchange activity and characterization of T332I mutant of Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factor 10 (ARHGEF10).

PubMed

Chaya, Taro; Shibata, Satoshi; Tokuhara, Yasunori; Yamaguchi, Wataru; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Kawahara, Ichiro; Kogo, Mikihiko; Ohoka, Yoshiharu; Inagaki, Shinobu

2011-08-26

The T332I mutation in Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factor 10 (ARHGEF10) was previously found in persons with slowed nerve conduction velocities and thin myelination of peripheral nerves. However, the molecular and cellular basis of the T332I mutant is not understood. Here, we show that ARHGEF10 has a negative regulatory region in the N terminus, in which residue 332 is located, and the T332I mutant is constitutively active. An N-terminal truncated ARHGEF10 mutant, ARHGEF10 ΔN (lacking amino acids 1-332), induced cell contraction that was inhibited by a Rho kinase inhibitor Y27632 and had higher GEF activity for RhoA than the wild type. The T332I mutant also showed the phenotype similar to the N-terminal truncated mutant. These data suggest that the ARHGEF10 T332I mutation-associated phenotype observed in the peripheral nerves is due to activated GEF activity of the ARHGEF10 T332I mutant.

Identification of a Negative Regulatory Region for the Exchange Activity and Characterization of T332I Mutant of Rho Guanine Nucleotide Exchange Factor 10 (ARHGEF10)*

PubMed Central

Chaya, Taro; Shibata, Satoshi; Tokuhara, Yasunori; Yamaguchi, Wataru; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Kawahara, Ichiro; Kogo, Mikihiko; Ohoka, Yoshiharu; Inagaki, Shinobu

2011-01-01

The T332I mutation in Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factor 10 (ARHGEF10) was previously found in persons with slowed nerve conduction velocities and thin myelination of peripheral nerves. However, the molecular and cellular basis of the T332I mutant is not understood. Here, we show that ARHGEF10 has a negative regulatory region in the N terminus, in which residue 332 is located, and the T332I mutant is constitutively active. An N-terminal truncated ARHGEF10 mutant, ARHGEF10 ΔN (lacking amino acids 1–332), induced cell contraction that was inhibited by a Rho kinase inhibitor Y27632 and had higher GEF activity for RhoA than the wild type. The T332I mutant also showed the phenotype similar to the N-terminal truncated mutant. These data suggest that the ARHGEF10 T332I mutation-associated phenotype observed in the peripheral nerves is due to activated GEF activity of the ARHGEF10 T332I mutant. PMID:21719701

C-5A Cargo Deck Low-Frequency Vibration Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-02-01

SAMPLE VIBRATION CALCULATIONS 13 1. Normal Distribution 13 2. Binomial Distribution 15 IV CONCLUSIONS 17 -! V REFERENCES 18 t: FEiCENDIJJ PAGS 2LANKNOT...Calculation for Binomial Distribution 108 (Vertical Acceleration, Right Rear Cargo Deck) xi I. INTRODUCTION The availability of large transport...the end of taxi. These peaks could then be used directly to compile the probability of occurrence of specific values of acceleration using the binomial

Rare, protein-truncating variants in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2, but not XRCC2, are associated with increased breast cancer risks.

PubMed

Decker, Brennan; Allen, Jamie; Luccarini, Craig; Pooley, Karen A; Shah, Mitul; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Ahmed, Shahana; Baynes, Caroline; Conroy, Don M; Brown, Judith; Luben, Robert; Ostrander, Elaine A; Pharoah, Paul Dp; Dunning, Alison M; Easton, Douglas F

2017-11-01

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common malignancy in women and has a major heritable component. The risks associated with most rare susceptibility variants are not well estimated. To better characterise the contribution of variants in ATM , CHEK2 , PALB2 and XRCC2 , we sequenced their coding regions in 13 087 BC cases and 5488 controls from East Anglia, UK. Gene coding regions were enriched via PCR, sequenced, variant called and filtered for quality. ORs for BC risk were estimated separately for carriers of truncating variants and of rare missense variants, which were further subdivided by functional domain and pathogenicity as predicted by four in silico algorithms. Truncating variants in PALB2 (OR=4.69, 95% CI 2.27 to 9.68), ATM (OR=3.26; 95% CI 1.82 to 6.46) and CHEK2 (OR=3.11; 95% CI 2.15 to 4.69), but not XRCC2 (OR=0.94; 95% CI 0.26 to 4.19) were associated with increased BC risk. Truncating variants in ATM and CHEK2 were more strongly associated with risk of oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive than ER-negative disease, while those in PALB2 were associated with similar risks for both subtypes. There was also some evidence that missense variants in ATM , CHEK2 and PALB2 may contribute to BC risk, but larger studies are necessary to quantify the magnitude of this effect. Truncating variants in PALB2 are associated with a higher risk of BC than those in ATM or CHEK2 . A substantial risk of BC due to truncating XRCC2 variants can be excluded. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A Novel de novo CDH1 Germline Variant Aids in the Classification of C-terminal E-cadherin Alterations Predicted to Escape Nonsense-Mediated mRNA Decay.

PubMed

Krempely, Kate; Karam, Rachid

2018-05-24

Most truncating CDH1 pathogenic alterations confer an elevated lifetime risk of diffuse gastric cancer and lobular breast cancer. However, transcripts containing carboxyl-terminal (C-terminal) premature stop codons have been demonstrated to escape the nonsense-mediated mRNA decay (NMD) pathway, and gastric and breast cancer risks associated with these truncations should be carefully evaluated. A female patient underwent multigene panel testing due to a personal history of invasive lobular breast cancer diagnosed at age 54, which identified the germline CDH1 nonsense alteration, c.2506G>T (p.E836*), in the last exon of the gene. Subsequent parental testing for the alteration was negative and additional short tandem repeat analysis confirmed the familial relationships and the de novo occurrence in the proband. Based on the de novo occurrence, clinical history, and rarity in general population databases, this alteration was classified as a likely pathogenic variant. This is the most C-terminal pathogenic alteration reported to date. Additionally, this alteration contributed to the classification of six other upstream CDH1 C-terminal truncating variants as pathogenic or likely pathogenic. Identifying the most distal pathogenic alteration provides evidence to classify other C-terminal truncating variants as either pathogenic or benign, a fundamental step to offering pre-symptomatic screening and prophylactic procedures to the appropriate patients. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Impact of cigarette smoking on utilization of nursing home services.

PubMed

Warner, Kenneth E; McCammon, Ryan J; Fries, Brant E; Langa, Kenneth M

2013-11-01

Few studies have examined the effects of smoking on nursing home utilization, generally using poor data on smoking status. No previous study has distinguished utilization for recent from long-term quitters. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we assessed nursing home utilization by never-smokers, long-term quitters (quit >3 years), recent quitters (quit ≤3 years), and current smokers. We used logistic regression to evaluate the likelihood of a nursing home admission. For those with an admission, we used negative binomial regression on the number of nursing home nights. Finally, we employed zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate nights for the full sample. Controlling for other variables, compared with never-smokers, long-term quitters have an odds ratio (OR) for nursing home admission of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07-1.2), current smokers 1.39 (1.23-1.57), and recent quitters 1.55 (1.29-1.87). The probability of admission rises rapidly with age and is lower for African Americans and Hispanics, more affluent respondents, respondents with a spouse present in the home, and respondents with a living child. Given admission, smoking status is not associated with length of stay (LOS). LOS is longer for older respondents and women and shorter for more affluent respondents and those with spouses present. Compared with otherwise identical never-smokers, former and current smokers have a significantly increased risk of nursing home admission. That recent quitters are at greatest risk of admission is consistent with evidence that many stop smoking because they are sick, often due to smoking.

Statistical inference for time course RNA-Seq data using a negative binomial mixed-effect model.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaoxiao; Dalpiaz, David; Wu, Di; S Liu, Jun; Zhong, Wenxuan; Ma, Ping

2016-08-26

Accurate identification of differentially expressed (DE) genes in time course RNA-Seq data is crucial for understanding the dynamics of transcriptional regulatory network. However, most of the available methods treat gene expressions at different time points as replicates and test the significance of the mean expression difference between treatments or conditions irrespective of time. They thus fail to identify many DE genes with different profiles across time. In this article, we propose a negative binomial mixed-effect model (NBMM) to identify DE genes in time course RNA-Seq data. In the NBMM, mean gene expression is characterized by a fixed effect, and time dependency is described by random effects. The NBMM is very flexible and can be fitted to both unreplicated and replicated time course RNA-Seq data via a penalized likelihood method. By comparing gene expression profiles over time, we further classify the DE genes into two subtypes to enhance the understanding of expression dynamics. A significance test for detecting DE genes is derived using a Kullback-Leibler distance ratio. Additionally, a significance test for gene sets is developed using a gene set score. Simulation analysis shows that the NBMM outperforms currently available methods for detecting DE genes and gene sets. Moreover, our real data analysis of fruit fly developmental time course RNA-Seq data demonstrates the NBMM identifies biologically relevant genes which are well justified by gene ontology analysis. The proposed method is powerful and efficient to detect biologically relevant DE genes and gene sets in time course RNA-Seq data.

Robust inference in the negative binomial regression model with an application to falls data.

PubMed

Aeberhard, William H; Cantoni, Eva; Heritier, Stephane

2014-12-01

A popular way to model overdispersed count data, such as the number of falls reported during intervention studies, is by means of the negative binomial (NB) distribution. Classical estimating methods are well-known to be sensitive to model misspecifications, taking the form of patients falling much more than expected in such intervention studies where the NB regression model is used. We extend in this article two approaches for building robust M-estimators of the regression parameters in the class of generalized linear models to the NB distribution. The first approach achieves robustness in the response by applying a bounded function on the Pearson residuals arising in the maximum likelihood estimating equations, while the second approach achieves robustness by bounding the unscaled deviance components. For both approaches, we explore different choices for the bounding functions. Through a unified notation, we show how close these approaches may actually be as long as the bounding functions are chosen and tuned appropriately, and provide the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators. Moreover, we introduce a robust weighted maximum likelihood estimator for the overdispersion parameter, specific to the NB distribution. Simulations under various settings show that redescending bounding functions yield estimates with smaller biases under contamination while keeping high efficiency at the assumed model, and this for both approaches. We present an application to a recent randomized controlled trial measuring the effectiveness of an exercise program at reducing the number of falls among people suffering from Parkinsons disease to illustrate the diagnostic use of such robust procedures and their need for reliable inference. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Association between month of birth and melanoma risk: fact or fiction?

PubMed

Fiessler, Cornelia; Pfahlberg, Annette B; Keller, Andrea K; Radespiel-Tröger, Martin; Uter, Wolfgang; Gefeller, Olaf

2017-04-01

Evidence on the effect of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure in infancy on melanoma risk in later life is scarce. Three recent studies suggest that people born in spring carry a higher melanoma risk. Our study aimed at verifying whether such a seasonal pattern of melanoma risk actually exists. Data from the population-based Cancer Registry Bavaria (CRB) on the birth months of 28 374 incident melanoma cases between 2002 and 2012 were analysed and compared with data from the Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing on the birth month distribution in the Bavarian population. Crude and adjusted analyses using negative binomial regression models were performed in the total study group and supplemented by several subgroup analyses. In the crude analysis, the birth months March-May were over-represented among melanoma cases. Negative binomial regression models adjusted only for sex and birth year revealed a seasonal association between melanoma risk and birth month with 13-21% higher relative incidence rates for March, April and May compared with the reference December. However, after additionally adjusting for the birth month distribution of the Bavarian population, these risk estimates decreased markedly and no association with the birth month was observed any more. Similar results emerged in all subgroup analyses. Our large registry-based study provides no evidence that people born in spring carry a higher risk for developing melanoma in later life and thus lends no support to the hypothesis of higher UVR susceptibility during the first months of life. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Dental Caries and Enamel Defects in Very Low Birth Weight Adolescents

PubMed Central

Nelson, S.; Albert, J.M.; Lombardi, G.; Wishnek, S.; Asaad, G.; Kirchner, H.L.; Singer, L.T.

2011-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to examine developmental enamel defects and dental caries in very low birth weight adolescents with high risk (HR-VLBW) and low risk (LR-VLBW) compared to full-term (term) adolescents. Methods The sample consisted of 224 subjects (80 HR-VLBW, 59 LR-VLBW, 85 term adolescents) recruited from an ongoing longitudinal study. Sociodemographic and medical information was available from birth. Dental examination of the adolescent at the 14-year visit included: enamel defects (opacity and hypoplasia); decayed, missing, filled teeth of incisors and molars (DMFT-IM) and of overall permanent teeth (DMFT); Simplified Oral Hygiene Index for debris/calculus on teeth, and sealant presence. A caregiver questionnaire completed simultaneously assessed dental behavior, access, insurance status and prevention factors. Hierarchical analysis utilized the zero-inflated negative binomial model and zero-inflated Poisson model. Results The zero-inflated negative binomial model controlling for sociodemographic variables indicated that the LR-VLBW group had an estimated 75% increase (p < 0.05) in number of demarcated opacities in the incisors and first molar teeth compared to the term group. Hierarchical modeling indicated that demarcated opacities were a significant predictor of DMFT-IM after control for relevant covariates. The term adolescents had significantly increased DMFT-IM and DMFT scores compared to the LR-VLBW adolescents. Conclusion LR-VLBW was a significant risk factor for increased enamel defects in the permanent incisors and first molars. Term children had increased caries compared to the LR-VLBW group. The effect of birth group and enamel defects on caries has to be investigated longitudinally from birth. PMID:20975268

Hopelessness as a Predictor of Suicide Ideation in Depressed Male and Female Adolescent Youth.

PubMed

Wolfe, Kristin L; Nakonezny, Paul A; Owen, Victoria J; Rial, Katherine V; Moorehead, Alexandra P; Kennard, Beth D; Emslie, Graham J

2017-12-21

We examined hopelessness as a predictor of suicide ideation in depressed youth after acute medication treatment. A total of 158 depressed adolescents were administered the Children's Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) as part of a larger battery at baseline and at weekly visits across 6 weeks of acute fluoxetine treatment. The Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS) was administered at baseline and week 6. A negative binomial regression model via a generalized estimating equation analysis of repeated measures was used to estimate suicide ideation over the 6 weeks of acute treatment from baseline measure of hopelessness. Depression severity and gender were included as covariates in the model. The negative binomial analysis was also conducted separately for the sample of males and females (in a gender-stratified analysis). Mean CDRS-R total scores were 60.30 ± 8.93 at baseline and 34.65 ± 10.41 at week 6. Mean baseline and week 6 BHS scores were 9.57 ± 5.51 and 5.59 ± 5.38, respectively. Per the C-SSRS, 43.04% and 83.54% reported having no suicide ideation at baseline and at week 6, respectively. The analyses revealed that baseline hopelessness was positively related to suicide ideation over treatment (p = .0027), independent of changes in depression severity. This significant finding persisted only for females (p = .0024). These results indicate the importance of early identification of hopelessness. © 2017 The American Association of Suicidology.

Prediction of vehicle crashes by drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations in Korea using a zero-inflated negative binomial model.

PubMed

Kim, Dae-Hwan; Ramjan, Lucie M; Mak, Kwok-Kei

2016-01-01

Traffic safety is a significant public health challenge, and vehicle crashes account for the majority of injuries. This study aims to identify whether drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations may predict vehicle crashes in Korea. A total of 500,000 drivers were randomly selected from the 11.6 million driver records of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs in Korea. Records of traffic crashes were obtained from the archives of the Korea Insurance Development Institute. After matching the past violation history for the period 2004-2005 with the number of crashes in year 2006, a total of 488,139 observations were used for the analysis. Zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to determine the incident risk ratio (IRR) of vehicle crashes by past violations of individual drivers. The included covariates were driver's age, gender, district of residence, vehicle choice, and driving experience. Drivers violating (1) a hit-and-run or drunk driving regulation at least once and (2) a signal, central line, or speed regulation more than once had a higher risk of a vehicle crash with respective IRRs of 1.06 and 1.15. Furthermore, female gender, a younger age, fewer years of driving experience, and middle-sized vehicles were all significantly associated with a higher likelihood of vehicle crashes. Drivers' demographic characteristics and past traffic violations could predict vehicle crashes in Korea. Greater resources should be assigned to the provision of traffic safety education programs for the high-risk driver groups.

The Effect of Sharrows, Painted Bicycle Lanes and Physically Protected Paths on the Severity of Bicycle Injuries Caused by Motor Vehicles.

PubMed

Wall, Stephen P; Lee, David C; Frangos, Spiros G; Sethi, Monica; Heyer, Jessica H; Ayoung-Chee, Patricia; DiMaggio, Charles J

2016-01-01

We conducted individual and ecologic analyses of prospectively collected data from 839 injured bicyclists who collided with motorized vehicles and presented to Bellevue Hospital, an urban Level-1 trauma center in New York City, from December 2008 to August 2014. Variables included demographics, scene information, rider behaviors, bicycle route availability, and whether the collision occurred before the road segment was converted to a bicycle route. We used negative binomial modeling to assess the risk of injury occurrence following bicycle path or lane implementation. We dichotomized U.S. National Trauma Data Bank Injury Severity Scores (ISS) into none/mild (0-8) versus moderate, severe, or critical (>8) and used adjusted multivariable logistic regression to model the association of ISS with collision proximity to sharrows (i.e., bicycle lanes designated for sharing with cars), painted bicycle lanes, or physically protected paths. Negative binomial modeling of monthly counts, while adjusting for pedestrian activity, revealed that physically protected paths were associated with 23% fewer injuries. Painted bicycle lanes reduced injury risk by nearly 90% (IDR 0.09, 95% CI 0.02-0.33). Holding all else equal, compared to no bicycle route, a bicycle injury nearby sharrows was nearly twice as likely to be moderate, severe, or critical (adjusted odds ratio 1.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-4.15). Painted bicycle lanes and physically protected paths were 1.52 (95% CI 0.85-2.71) and 1.66 (95% CI 0.85-3.22) times as likely to be associated with more than mild injury respectively.

Generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models for count data with application to malaria time series with low case numbers.

PubMed

Briët, Olivier J T; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-01-01

With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions' impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during "consolidation" and "pre-elimination" phases. Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years. The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series. G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low.

Dispersion models and sampling of cacao mirid bug Sahlbergella singularis (Hemiptera: Miridae) on Theobroma Cacao in southern Cameroon.

PubMed

Bisseleua, D H B; Vidal, Stefan

2011-02-01

The spatio-temporal distribution of Sahlbergella singularis Haglung, a major pest of cacao trees (Theobroma cacao) (Malvaceae), was studied for 2 yr in traditional cacao forest gardens in the humid forest area of southern Cameroon. The first objective was to analyze the dispersion of this insect on cacao trees. The second objective was to develop sampling plans based on fixed levels of precision for estimating S. singularis populations. The following models were used to analyze the data: Taylor's power law, Iwao's patchiness regression, the Nachman model, and the negative binomial distribution. Our results document that Taylor's power law was a better fit for the data than the Iwao and Nachman models. Taylor's b and Iwao's β were both significantly >1, indicating that S. singularis aggregated on specific trees. This result was further supported by the calculated common k of 1.75444. Iwao's α was significantly <0, indicating that the basic distribution component of S. singularis was the individual insect. Comparison of negative binomial (NBD) and Nachman models indicated that the NBD model was appropriate for studying S. singularis distribution. Optimal sample sizes for fixed precision levels of 0.10, 0.15, and 0.25 were estimated with Taylor's regression coefficients. Required sample sizes increased dramatically with increasing levels of precision. This is the first study on S. singularis dispersion in cacao plantations. Sampling plans, presented here, should be a tool for research on population dynamics and pest management decisions of mirid bugs on cacao. © 2011 Entomological Society of America

On performance of parametric and distribution-free models for zero-inflated and over-dispersed count responses.

PubMed

Tang, Wan; Lu, Naiji; Chen, Tian; Wang, Wenjuan; Gunzler, Douglas David; Han, Yu; Tu, Xin M

2015-10-30

Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (ZINB) models are widely used to model zero-inflated count responses. These models extend the Poisson and negative binomial (NB) to address excessive zeros in the count response. By adding a degenerate distribution centered at 0 and interpreting it as describing a non-risk group in the population, the ZIP (ZINB) models a two-component population mixture. As in applications of Poisson and NB, the key difference between ZIP and ZINB is the allowance for overdispersion by the ZINB in its NB component in modeling the count response for the at-risk group. Overdispersion arising in practice too often does not follow the NB, and applications of ZINB to such data yield invalid inference. If sources of overdispersion are known, other parametric models may be used to directly model the overdispersion. Such models too are subject to assumed distributions. Further, this approach may not be applicable if information about the sources of overdispersion is unavailable. In this paper, we propose a distribution-free alternative and compare its performance with these popular parametric models as well as a moment-based approach proposed by Yu et al. [Statistics in Medicine 2013; 32: 2390-2405]. Like the generalized estimating equations, the proposed approach requires no elaborate distribution assumptions. Compared with the approach of Yu et al., it is more robust to overdispersed zero-inflated responses. We illustrate our approach with both simulated and real study data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Generalized Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models for Count Data with Application to Malaria Time Series with Low Case Numbers

PubMed Central

Briët, Olivier J. T.; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H.; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-01-01

Introduction With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions’ impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during “consolidation” and “pre-elimination” phases. Methods Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years. Results The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series. Conclusions G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low. PMID:23785448

Individual-level exposure to disaster, neighborhood environmental characteristics, and their independent and combined associations with depressive symptoms in women.

PubMed

Gaston, Symielle A; Volaufova, Julia; Peters, Edward S; Ferguson, Tekeda F; Robinson, William T; Nugent, Nicole; Trapido, Edward J; Rung, Ariane L

2017-09-01

The severity of the stress response to experiencing disaster depends on individual exposure and background stress prior to the event. To date, there is limited research on the interaction between neighborhood environmental stress and experiencing an oil spill, and their effects on depression. The objective of the current study was to assess if the association between exposure to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (DHOS) and depressive symptoms varied by neighborhood characteristics. US Census data (2010) and longitudinal data collected in two waves (2012-2014 and 2014-2016) from female residents [N = 889 (Wave I), 737 (Wave II)] of an area highly affected by the DHOS were analyzed. Multilevel and individual-level negative binomial regressions were performed to estimate associations with depressive symptoms in both waves. An interaction term was included to estimate effect modification of the association between DHOS exposure and depressive symptoms by neighborhood characteristics. Generalized estimating equations were applied to the negative binomial regression testing longitudinal associations. Census tract-level neighborhood characteristics were not associated with depressive symptoms. Exposure to the DHOS and neighborhood physical disorder were associated with depressive symptoms cross-sectionally. There was no evidence of effect modification; however, physical/environmental exposure to the DHOS was associated with increased depressive symptoms only among women living in areas with physical disorder. Exposure to the DHOS remained associated with depressive symptoms over time. Findings support the enduring consequences of disaster exposure on depressive symptoms in women and identify potential targets for post-disaster intervention based on residential characteristics.

Linking parasite populations in hosts to parasite populations in space through Taylor's law and the negative binomial distribution

PubMed Central

Poulin, Robert; Lagrue, Clément

2017-01-01

The spatial distribution of individuals of any species is a basic concern of ecology. The spatial distribution of parasites matters to control and conservation of parasites that affect human and nonhuman populations. This paper develops a quantitative theory to predict the spatial distribution of parasites based on the distribution of parasites in hosts and the spatial distribution of hosts. Four models are tested against observations of metazoan hosts and their parasites in littoral zones of four lakes in Otago, New Zealand. These models differ in two dichotomous assumptions, constituting a 2 × 2 theoretical design. One assumption specifies whether the variance function of the number of parasites per host individual is described by Taylor's law (TL) or the negative binomial distribution (NBD). The other assumption specifies whether the numbers of parasite individuals within each host in a square meter of habitat are independent or perfectly correlated among host individuals. We find empirically that the variance–mean relationship of the numbers of parasites per square meter is very well described by TL but is not well described by NBD. Two models that posit perfect correlation of the parasite loads of hosts in a square meter of habitat approximate observations much better than two models that posit independence of parasite loads of hosts in a square meter, regardless of whether the variance–mean relationship of parasites per host individual obeys TL or NBD. We infer that high local interhost correlations in parasite load strongly influence the spatial distribution of parasites. Local hotspots could influence control and conservation of parasites. PMID:27994156

Sickness absence and psychosocial job quality: an analysis from a longitudinal survey of working Australians, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Butterworth, Peter; Bentley, Rebecca; Kavanagh, Anne M; LaMontagne, Anthony D

2015-05-15

Sickness absence is associated with adverse health, organizational, and societal outcomes. Using data from a longitudinal cohort study of working Australians (the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey), we examined the relationship between changes in individuals' overall psychosocial job quality and variation in sickness absence. The outcome variables were paid sickness absence (yes/no) and number of days of paid sickness absence in the past year (2005-2012). The main exposure variable was psychosocial job quality, measured using a psychosocial job quality index (levels of job control, demands and complexity, insecurity, and perceptions of unfair pay). Analysis was conducted using longitudinal fixed-effects logistic regression models and negative binomial regression models. There was a dose-response relationship between the number of psychosocial job stressors reported by an individual and the odds of paid sickness absence (1 adversity: odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.45 (P = 0.002); 2 adversities: OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.51 (P = 0.002); ≥3 adversities: OR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.29, 1.94 (P < 0.001)). The negative binomial regression models also indicated that respondents reported a greater number of days of sickness absence in response to worsening psychosocial job quality. These results suggest that workplace interventions aiming to improve the quality of work could help reduce sickness absence. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Probabilistic assessment of precipitation-triggered landslides using historical records of landslide occurence, Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coe, J.A.; Michael, J.A.; Crovelli, R.A.; Savage, W.Z.; Laprade, W.T.; Nashem, W.D.

2004-01-01

Ninety years of historical landslide records were used as input to the Poisson and binomial probability models. Results from these models show that, for precipitation-triggered landslides, approximately 9 percent of the area of Seattle has annual exceedance probabilities of 1 percent or greater. Application of the Poisson model for estimating the future occurrence of individual landslides results in a worst-case scenario map, with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 25 percent on a hillslope near Duwamish Head in West Seattle. Application of the binomial model for estimating the future occurrence of a year with one or more landslides results in a map with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 17 percent (also near Duwamish Head). Slope and geology both play a role in localizing the occurrence of landslides in Seattle. A positive correlation exists between slope and mean exceedance probability, with probability tending to increase as slope increases. Sixty-four percent of all historical landslide locations are within 150 m (500 ft, horizontal distance) of the Esperance Sand/Lawton Clay contact, but within this zone, no positive or negative correlation exists between exceedance probability and distance to the contact.

Binomial Baseball.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levin, Eugene M.

1981-01-01

Student access to programmable calculators and computer terminals, coupled with a familiarity with baseball, provides opportunities to enhance their understanding of the binomial distribution and other aspects of analysis. (MP)

Modeling factors influencing the demand for emergency department services in Ontario: a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Moineddin, Rahim; Meaney, Christopher; Agha, Mohammad; Zagorski, Brandon; Glazier, Richard Henry

2011-08-19

Emergency departments are medical treatment facilities, designed to provide episodic care to patients suffering from acute injuries and illnesses as well as patients who are experiencing sporadic flare-ups of underlying chronic medical conditions which require immediate attention. Supply and demand for emergency department services varies across geographic regions and time. Some persons do not rely on the service at all whereas; others use the service on repeated occasions. Issues regarding increased wait times for services and crowding illustrate the need to investigate which factors are associated with increased frequency of emergency department utilization. The evidence from this study can help inform policy makers on the appropriate mix of supply and demand targeted health care policies necessary to ensure that patients receive appropriate health care delivery in an efficient and cost-effective manner. The purpose of this report is to assess those factors resulting in increased demand for emergency department services in Ontario. We assess how utilization rates vary according to the severity of patient presentation in the emergency department. We are specifically interested in the impact that access to primary care physicians has on the demand for emergency department services. Additionally, we wish to investigate these trends using a series of novel regression models for count outcomes which have yet to be employed in the domain of emergency medical research. Data regarding the frequency of emergency department visits for the respondents of Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) during our study interval (2003-2005) are obtained from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS). Patients' emergency department utilizations were linked with information from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) which provides individual level medical, socio-demographic, psychological and behavioral information for investigating predictors of increased emergency department utilization. Six different multiple regression models for count data were fitted to assess the influence of predictors on demand for emergency department services, including: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial. Comparison of competing models was assessed by the Vuong test statistic. The CCHS cycle 2.1 respondents were a roughly equal mix of males (50.4%) and females (49.6%). The majority (86.2%) were young-middle aged adults between the ages of 20-64, living in predominantly urban environments (85.9%), with mid-high household incomes (92.2%) and well-educated, receiving at least a high-school diploma (84.1%). Many participants reported no chronic disease (51.9%), fell into a small number (0-5) of ambulatory diagnostic groups (62.3%), and perceived their health status as good/excellent (88.1%); however, were projected to have high Resource Utilization Band levels of health resource utilization (68.2%). These factors were largely stable for CCHS cycle 3.1 respondents. Factors influencing demand for emergency department services varied according to the severity of triage scores at initial presentation. For example, although a non-significant predictor of the odds of emergency department utilization in high severity cases, access to a primary care physician was a statistically significant predictor of the likelihood of emergency department utilization (OR: 0.69; 95% CI OR: 0.63-0.75) and the rate of emergency department utilization (RR: 0.57; 95% CI RR: 0.50-0.66) in low severity cases. Using a theoretically appropriate hurdle negative binomial regression model this unique study illustrates that access to a primary care physician is an important predictor of both the odds and rate of emergency department utilization in Ontario. Restructuring primary care services, with aims of increasing access to undersupplied populations may result in decreased emergency department utilization rates by approximately 43% for low severity triage level cases.

New Class of Quantum Error-Correcting Codes for a Bosonic Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, Marios H.; Silveri, Matti; Brierley, R. T.; Albert, Victor V.; Salmilehto, Juha; Jiang, Liang; Girvin, S. M.

2016-07-01

We construct a new class of quantum error-correcting codes for a bosonic mode, which are advantageous for applications in quantum memories, communication, and scalable computation. These "binomial quantum codes" are formed from a finite superposition of Fock states weighted with binomial coefficients. The binomial codes can exactly correct errors that are polynomial up to a specific degree in bosonic creation and annihilation operators, including amplitude damping and displacement noise as well as boson addition and dephasing errors. For realistic continuous-time dissipative evolution, the codes can perform approximate quantum error correction to any given order in the time step between error detection measurements. We present an explicit approximate quantum error recovery operation based on projective measurements and unitary operations. The binomial codes are tailored for detecting boson loss and gain errors by means of measurements of the generalized number parity. We discuss optimization of the binomial codes and demonstrate that by relaxing the parity structure, codes with even lower unrecoverable error rates can be achieved. The binomial codes are related to existing two-mode bosonic codes, but offer the advantage of requiring only a single bosonic mode to correct amplitude damping as well as the ability to correct other errors. Our codes are similar in spirit to "cat codes" based on superpositions of the coherent states but offer several advantages such as smaller mean boson number, exact rather than approximate orthonormality of the code words, and an explicit unitary operation for repumping energy into the bosonic mode. The binomial quantum codes are realizable with current superconducting circuit technology, and they should prove useful in other quantum technologies, including bosonic quantum memories, photonic quantum communication, and optical-to-microwave up- and down-conversion.

Quantifying the safety effects of horizontal curves on two-way, two-lane rural roads.

PubMed

Gooch, Jeffrey P; Gayah, Vikash V; Donnell, Eric T

2016-07-01

The objective of this study is to quantify the safety performance of horizontal curves on two-way, two-lane rural roads relative to tangent segments. Past research is limited by small samples sizes, outdated statistical evaluation methods, and unreported standard errors. This study overcomes these drawbacks by using the propensity scores-potential outcomes framework. The impact of adjacent curves on horizontal curve safety is also explored using a cross-sectional regression model of only horizontal curves. The models estimated in the present study used eight years of crash data (2005-2012) obtained from over 10,000 miles of state-owned two-lane rural roads in Pennsylvania. These data included information on roadway geometry (e.g., horizontal curvature, lane width, and shoulder width), traffic volume, roadside hazard rating, and the presence of various low-cost safety countermeasures (e.g., centerline and shoulder rumble strips, curve and intersection warning pavement markings, and aggressive driving pavement dots). Crash prediction is performed by means of mixed effects negative binomial regression using the explanatory variables noted previously, as well as attributes of adjacent horizontal curves. The results indicate that both the presence of a horizontal curve and its degree of curvature must be considered when predicting the frequency of total crashes on horizontal curves. Both are associated with an increase in crash frequency, which is consistent with previous findings in the literature. Mixed effects negative binomial regression models for total crash frequency on horizontal curves indicate that the distance to adjacent curves is not statistically significant. However, the degree of curvature of adjacent curves in close proximity (within 0.75 miles) was found to be statistically significant and negatively correlated with crash frequency on the subject curve. This is logical, as drivers exiting a sharp curve are likely to be driving slower and with more awareness as they approach the next horizontal curve. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of robustness to outliers between robust poisson models and log-binomial models when estimating relative risks for common binary outcomes: a simulation study.

PubMed

Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P

2014-06-26

To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.

KPC-4 Is Encoded within a Truncated Tn4401 in an IncL/M Plasmid, pNE1280, Isolated from Enterobacter cloacae and Serratia marcescens

PubMed Central

Bryant, Kendall A.; Van Schooneveld, Trevor C.; Thapa, Ishwor; Bastola, Dhundy; Williams, Laurina O.; Safranek, Thomas J.; Hinrichs, Steven H.; Rupp, Mark E.

2013-01-01

We describe the transfer of blaKPC-4 from Enterobacter cloacae to Serratia marcescens in a single patient. DNA sequencing revealed that KPC-4 was encoded on an IncL/M plasmid, pNE1280, closely related to pCTX-M360. Further analysis found that KPC-4 was encoded within a novel Tn4401 element (Tn4401f) containing a truncated tnpA and lacking tnpR, ISKpn7 left, and Tn4401 IRL-1, which are conserved in other Tn4401 transposons. This study highlights the continued evolution of Tn4401 transposons and movement to multiple plasmid backbones that results in acquisition by multiple species of Gram-negative bacilli. PMID:23070154

Speech-discrimination scores modeled as a binomial variable.

PubMed

Thornton, A R; Raffin, M J

1978-09-01

Many studies have reported variability data for tests of speech discrimination, and the disparate results of these studies have not been given a simple explanation. Arguments over the relative merits of 25- vs 50-word tests have ignored the basic mathematical properties inherent in the use of percentage scores. The present study models performance on clinical tests of speech discrimination as a binomial variable. A binomial model was developed, and some of its characteristics were tested against data from 4120 scores obtained on the CID Auditory Test W-22. A table for determining significant deviations between scores was generated and compared to observed differences in half-list scores for the W-22 tests. Good agreement was found between predicted and observed values. Implications of the binomial characteristics of speech-discrimination scores are discussed.

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Postler, Thomas S.; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authorsmore » of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. [Arenaviridae; binomials; ICTV; International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses; Mononegavirales; virus nomenclature; virus taxonomy.]« less

Charged particle multiplicities in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aid, S.; Anderson, M.; Andreev, V.; Andrieu, B.; Appuhn, R.-D.; Babaev, A.; Bähr, J.; Bán, J.; Ban, Y.; Baranov, P.; Barrelet, E.; Barschke, R.; Bartel, W.; Barth, M.; Bassler, U.; Beck, H. P.; Behrend, H.-J.; Belousov, A.; Berger, Ch.; Bernardi, G.; Bertrand-Coremans, G.; Besançon, M.; Beyer, R.; Biddulph, P.; Bispham, P.; Bizot, J. C.; Blobel, V.; Borras, K.; Botterweck, F.; Boudry, V.; Braemer, A.; Braunschweig, W.; Brisson, V.; Bruel, P.; Bruncko, D.; Brune, C.; Buchholz, R.; Büngener, L.; Bürger, J.; Büsser, F. W.; Buniatian, A.; Burke, S.; Burton, M. J.; Calvet, D.; Campbell, A. J.; Carli, T.; Charlet, M.; Clarke, D.; Clegg, A. B.; Clerbaux, B.; Cocks, S.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormack, C.; Coughlan, J. A.; Courau, A.; Cousinou, M.-C.; Cozzika, G.; Criegee, L.; Cussans, D. G.; Cvach, J.; Dagoret, S.; Dainton, J. B.; Dau, W. D.; Daum, K.; David, M.; Davis, C. L.; Delcourt, B.; de Roeck, A.; de Wolf, E. A.; Dirkmann, M.; Dixon, P.; di Nezza, P.; Dlugosz, W.; Dollfus, C.; Dowell, J. D.; Dreis, H. B.; Droutskoi, A.; Dünger, O.; Duhm, H.; Ebert, J.; Ebert, T. R.; Eckerlin, G.; Efremenko, V.; Egli, S.; Eichler, R.; Eisele, F.; Eisenhandler, E.; Elsen, E.; Erdmann, M.; Erdmann, W.; Evrard, E.; Fahr, A. B.; Favart, L.; Fedotov, A.; Feeken, D.; Felst, R.; Feltesse, J.; Ferencei, J.; Ferrarotto, F.; Flamm, K.; Fleischer, M.; Flieser, M.; Flügge, G.; Fomenko, A.; Fominykh, B.; Formánek, J.; Foster, J. M.; Franke, G.; Fretwurst, E.; Gabathuler, E.; Gabathuler, K.; Gaede, F.; Garvey, J.; Gayler, J.; Gebauer, M.; Genzel, H.; Gerhards, R.; Glazov, A.; Goerlach, U.; Goerlich, L.; Gogitidze, N.; Goldberg, M.; Goldner, D.; Golec-Biernat, K.; Gonzalez-Pineiro, B.; Gorelov, I.; Grab, C.; Grässler, H.; Greenshaw, T.; Griffiths, R. K.; Grindhammer, G.; Gruber, A.; Gruber, C.; Haack, J.; Hadig, T.; Haidt, D.; Hajduk, L.; Hampel, M.; Haynes, W. J.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henderson, R. C. W.; Henschel, H.; Herynek, I.; Hess, M. F.; Hewitt, K.; Hildesheim, W.; Hiller, K. H.; Hilton, C. D.; Hladký, J.; Hoeger, K. C.; Höppner, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Holtom, T.; Horisberger, R.; Hudgson, V. L.; Hütte, M.; Ibbotson, M.; Itterbeck, H.; Jacholkowska, A.; Jacobsson, C.; Jaffre, M.; Janoth, J.; Jansen, T.; Jönsson, L.; Johnson, D. P.; Jung, H.; Kalmus, P. I. P.; Kander, M.; Kant, D.; Kaschowitz, R.; Kathage, U.; Katzy, J.; Kaufmann, H. H.; Kaufmann, O.; Kazarian, S.; Kenyon, I. R.; Kermiche, S.; Keuker, C.; Kiesling, C.; Klein, M.; Kleinwort, C.; Knies, G.; Köhler, T.; Köhne, J. H.; Kolanoski, H.; Kole, F.; Kolya, S. D.; Korbel, V.; Korn, M.; Kostka, P.; Kotelnikov, S. K.; Krämerkämper, T.; Krasny, M. W.; Krehbiel, H.; Krücker, D.; Küster, H.; Kuhlen, M.; Kurča, T.; Kurzhöfer, J.; Lacour, D.; Laforge, B.; Lander, R.; Landon, M. P. J.; Lange, W.; Langenegger, U.; Laporte, J.-F.; Lebedev, A.; Lehner, F.; Levonian, S.; Lindström, G.; Lindstroem, M.; Link, J.; Linsel, F.; Lipinski, J.; List, B.; Lobo, G.; Lomas, J. W.; Lopez, G. C.; Lubimov, V.; Lüke, D.; Magnussen, N.; Malinovski, E.; Mani, S.; Maraček, R.; Marage, P.; Marks, J.; Marshall, R.; Martens, J.; Martin, G.; Martin, R.; Martyn, H.-U.; Martyniak, J.; Mavroidis, T.; Maxfield, S. J.; McMahon, S. J.; Mehta, A.; Meier, K.; Meyer, A.; Meyer, A.; Meyer, H.; Meyer, J.; Meyer, P.-O.; Migliori, A.; Mikocki, S.; Milstead, D.; Moeck, J.; Moreau, F.; Morris, J. V.; Mroczko, E.; Müller, D.; Müller, G.; Müller, K.; Müller, M.; Murín, P.; Nagovizin, V.; Nahnhauer, R.; Naroska, B.; Naumann, Th.; Négri, I.; Newman, P. R.; Newton, D.; Nguyen, H. K.; Nicholls, T. C.; Niebergall, F.; Niebuhr, C.; Niedzballa, Ch.; Niggli, H.; Nisius, R.; Nowak, G.; Noyes, G. W.; Nyberg-Werther, M.; Oakden, M.; Oberlack, H.; Olsson, J. E.; Ozerov, D.; Palmen, P.; Panaro, E.; Panitch, A.; Pascaud, C.; Patel, G. D.; Pawletta, H.; Peppel, E.; Perez, E.; Phillips, J. P.; Pieuchot, A.; Pitzl, D.; Pope, G.; Prell, S.; Rabbertz, K.; Rädel, G.; Reimer, P.; Reinshagen, S.; Rick, H.; Riech, V.; Riedlberger, J.; Riepenhausen, F.; Riess, S.; Rizvi, E.; Robertson, S. M.; Robmann, P.; Roloff, H. E.; Roosen, R.; Rosenbauer, K.; Rostovtsev, A.; Rouse, F.; Royon, C.; Rüter, K.; Rusakov, S.; Rybicki, K.; Sankey, D. P. C.; Schacht, P.; Schiek, S.; Schleif, S.; Schleper, P.; von Schlippe, W.; Schmidt, D.; Schmidt, G.; Schöning, A.; Schröder, V.; Schuhmann, E.; Schwab, B.; Sefkow, F.; Seidel, M.; Sell, R.; Semenov, A.; Shekelyan, V.; Sheviakov, I.; Shtarkov, L. N.; Siegmon, G.; Siewert, U.; Sirois, Y.; Skillicorn, I. O.; Smirnov, P.; Smith, J. R.; Solochenko, V.; Soloviev, Y.; Specka, A.; Spiekermann, J.; Spielman, S.; Spitzer, H.; Squinabol, F.; Steenbock, M.; Steffen, P.; Steinberg, R.; Steiner, H.; Steinhart, J.; Stella, B.; Stellberger, A.; Stier, J.; Stiewe, J.; Stößlein, U.; Stolze, K.; Straumann, U.; Struczinski, W.; Sutton, J. P.; Tapprogge, S.; Taševský, M.; Tchernyshov, V.; Tchetchelnitski, S.; Theissen, J.; Thiebaux, C.; Thompson, G.; Truöl, P.; Tsipolitis, G.; Turnau, J.; Tutas, J.; Uelkes, P.; Usik, A.; Valkár, S.; Valkárová, A.; Vallée, C.; Vandenplas, D.; van Esch, P.; van Mechelen, P.; Vazdik, Y.; Verrecchia, P.; Villet, G.; Wacker, K.; Wagener, A.; Wagener, M.; Walther, A.; Waugh, B.; Weber, G.; Weber, M.; Wegener, D.; Wegner, A.; Wengler, T.; Werner, M.; West, L. R.; Wilksen, T.; Willard, S.; Winde, M.; Winter, G.-G.; Wittek, C.; Wobisch, M.; Wünsch, E.; Žáček, J.; Zarbock, D.; Zhang, Z.; Zhokin, A.; Zini, P.; Zomer, F.; Zsembery, J.; Zuber, K.; Zurnedden, M.

1996-12-01

Using the H1 detector at HERA, charged particle multiplicity distributions in deep inelastic e + p scattering have been measured over a large kinematical region. The evolution with W and Q 2 of the multiplicity distribution and of the multiplicity moments in pseudorapidity domains of varying size is studied in the current fragmentation region of the hadronic centre-of-mass frame. The results are compared with data from fixed target lepton-nucleon interactions, e + e - annihilations and hadron-hadron collisions as well as with expectations from QCD based parton models. Fits to the Negative Binomial and Lognormal distributions are presented.

The influence of neighborhood characteristics on the relationship between discrimination and increased drug-using social ties among illicit drug users.

PubMed

Crawford, Natalie D; Borrell, Luisa N; Galea, Sandro; Ford, Chandra; Latkin, Carl; Fuller, Crystal M

2013-04-01

Social discrimination may isolate drug users into higher risk relationships, particularly in disadvantaged neighborhood environments where drug trade occurs. We used negative binomial regression accounting for clustering of individuals within their recruitment neighborhood to investigate the relationship between high-risk drug ties with various forms of social discrimination, neighborhood minority composition, poverty and education. Results show that experiencing discrimination due to drug use is significantly associated with more drug ties in neighborhoods with fewer blacks. Future social network and discrimination research should assess the role of neighborhood social cohesion.

Neighborhood characteristics contribute to urban alcohol availability: Accounting for race/ethnicity and social disorganization.

PubMed

Snowden, Aleksandra J

2016-01-01

This study examined the role that race/ethnicity and social disorganization play in alcohol availability in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, census block groups. This study estimated negative binomial regression models to examine separately the relationship between neighborhood racial/ethnic composition and social disorganization levels for (1) total, (2) on-premise, and (3) off-premise alcohol outlets. Results of this study suggest that proportion Hispanic was positively associated with total and with off-premise alcohol outlets. Second, proportion African American was negatively associated with on-premise alcohol outlets and positively associated with off-premise alcohol outlets. Proportion Asian was not associated with total, on-premise, or off-premise alcohol outlets. However, the effects of race/ethnicity on alcohol availability were either unrelated or negatively related to alcohol outlet availability once neighborhood social disorganization levels were taken into account, and social disorganization was positively and significantly associated with all alcohol outlet types. Neighborhood characteristics contribute to alcohol availability and must be considered in any efforts aimed toward prevention of alcohol-related negative health and social outcomes.

The five-factor model of impulsivity-like traits and emotional lability in aggressive behavior.

PubMed

Dvorak, Robert D; Pearson, Matthew R; Kuvaas, Nicholas J

2013-01-01

Factors that increase automatic psychological processes may result in impulsive action and, consequently, aggressive behavior. The current cross-sectional study examined the association between the five-factor model of impulsivity-like traits (negative urgency, positive urgency, premeditation, perseverance, and sensation seeking), emotional lability, and physically aggressive behaviors among college students (n = 481) in a negative binomial hurdle model. In the logistic portion of the model, emotional lability was related to a higher likelihood of engaging in aggressive acts in the past 6 months. The association between emotional lability and the likelihood of aggressive behavior was moderated by two impulsivity-like traits: negative urgency and positive urgency. Specifically, emotional lability was related to engaging in aggressive acts among those with high negative urgency, and among those with low positive urgency. In the count portion of the model, emotional lability was uniquely related to the number of aggressive acts in the past 6 months. Our results indicate that emotional lability and facets of impulsivity interactively relate to engagement in aggressive behavior, suggesting that these variables be integrated into models of aggression. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Monte Carlo Risk Analysis of Life Cycle Cost Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

process which occurs with each FLU failure. With this in mind there is no alternative other than the binomial distribution. 24 GOR/SM/75D-6 With all of...Weibull distribution of failures as selected by user. For each failure of the ith FLU, the model then samples from the binomial distribution to deter- mine...which is sampled from the binomial . Neither of the two conditions for normality are met, i.e., that RTS Ie close to .5 and the number of samples close

Statistical methods for the beta-binomial model in teratology.

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, E; Yanagimoto, T

1994-01-01

The beta-binomial model is widely used for analyzing teratological data involving littermates. Recent developments in statistical analyses of teratological data are briefly reviewed with emphasis on the model. For statistical inference of the parameters in the beta-binomial distribution, separation of the likelihood introduces an likelihood inference. This leads to reducing biases of estimators and also to improving accuracy of empirical significance levels of tests. Separate inference of the parameters can be conducted in a unified way. PMID:8187716

Truncating SLC5A7 mutations underlie a spectrum of dominant hereditary motor neuropathies.

PubMed

Salter, Claire G; Beijer, Danique; Hardy, Holly; Barwick, Katy E S; Bower, Matthew; Mademan, Ines; De Jonghe, Peter; Deconinck, Tine; Russell, Mark A; McEntagart, Meriel M; Chioza, Barry A; Blakely, Randy D; Chilton, John K; De Bleecker, Jan; Baets, Jonathan; Baple, Emma L; Walk, David; Crosby, Andrew H

2018-04-01

To identify the genetic cause of disease in 2 previously unreported families with forms of distal hereditary motor neuropathies (dHMNs). The first family comprises individuals affected by dHMN type V, which lacks the cardinal clinical feature of vocal cord paralysis characteristic of dHMN-VII observed in the second family. Next-generation sequencing was performed on the proband of each family. Variants were annotated and filtered, initially focusing on genes associated with neuropathy. Candidate variants were further investigated and confirmed by dideoxy sequence analysis and cosegregation studies. Thorough patient phenotyping was completed, comprising clinical history, examination, and neurologic investigation. dHMNs are a heterogeneous group of peripheral motor neuron disorders characterized by length-dependent neuropathy and progressive distal limb muscle weakness and wasting. We previously reported a dominant-negative frameshift mutation located in the concluding exon of the SLC5A7 gene encoding the choline transporter (CHT), leading to protein truncation, as the likely cause of dominantly-inherited dHMN-VII in an extended UK family. In this study, our genetic studies identified distinct heterozygous frameshift mutations located in the last coding exon of SLC5A7 , predicted to result in the truncation of the CHT C-terminus, as the likely cause of the condition in each family. This study corroborates C-terminal CHT truncation as a cause of autosomal dominant dHMN, confirming upper limb predominating over lower limb involvement, and broadening the clinical spectrum arising from CHT malfunction.

Prevalence of PALB2 mutations in breast cancer patients in multi-ethnic Asian population in Malaysia and Singapore.

PubMed

Phuah, Sze Yee; Lee, Sheau Yee; Kang, Peter; Kang, In Nee; Yoon, Sook-Yee; Thong, Meow Keong; Hartman, Mikael; Sng, Jen-Hwei; Yip, Cheng Har; Taib, Nur Aishah Mohd; Teo, Soo-Hwang

2013-01-01

The partner and localizer of breast cancer 2 (PALB2) is responsible for facilitating BRCA2-mediated DNA repair by serving as a bridging molecule, acting as the physical and functional link between the breast cancer 1 (BRCA1) and breast cancer 2 (BRCA2) proteins. Truncating mutations in the PALB2 gene are rare but are thought to be associated with increased risks of developing breast cancer in various populations. We evaluated the contribution of PALB2 germline mutations in 122 Asian women with breast cancer, all of whom had significant family history of breast and other cancers. Further screening for nine PALB2 mutations was conducted in 874 Malaysian and 532 Singaporean breast cancer patients, and in 1342 unaffected Malaysian and 541 unaffected Singaporean women. By analyzing the entire coding region of PALB2, we found two novel truncating mutations and ten missense mutations in families tested negative for BRCA1/2-mutations. One additional novel truncating PALB2 mutation was identified in one patient through genotyping analysis. Our results indicate a low prevalence of deleterious PALB2 mutations and a specific mutation profile within the Malaysian and Singaporean populations.

Prevalence of PALB2 Mutations in Breast Cancer Patients in Multi-Ethnic Asian Population in Malaysia and Singapore

PubMed Central

Phuah, Sze Yee; Lee, Sheau Yee; Kang, Peter; Kang, In Nee; Yoon, Sook-Yee; Thong, Meow Keong; Hartman, Mikael; Sng, Jen-Hwei; Yip, Cheng Har; Taib, Nur Aishah Mohd; Teo, Soo-Hwang

2013-01-01

Background The partner and localizer of breast cancer 2 (PALB2) is responsible for facilitating BRCA2-mediated DNA repair by serving as a bridging molecule, acting as the physical and functional link between the breast cancer 1 (BRCA1) and breast cancer 2 (BRCA2) proteins. Truncating mutations in the PALB2 gene are rare but are thought to be associated with increased risks of developing breast cancer in various populations. Methods We evaluated the contribution of PALB2 germline mutations in 122 Asian women with breast cancer, all of whom had significant family history of breast and other cancers. Further screening for nine PALB2 mutations was conducted in 874 Malaysian and 532 Singaporean breast cancer patients, and in 1342 unaffected Malaysian and 541 unaffected Singaporean women. Results By analyzing the entire coding region of PALB2, we found two novel truncating mutations and ten missense mutations in families tested negative for BRCA1/2-mutations. One additional novel truncating PALB2 mutation was identified in one patient through genotyping analysis. Our results indicate a low prevalence of deleterious PALB2 mutations and a specific mutation profile within the Malaysian and Singaporean populations. PMID:23977390

Roles of FGFR3 during morphogenesis of Meckel's cartilage and mandibular bones

PubMed Central

Havens, Bruce A.; Velonis, Dimitris; Kronenberg, Mark S.; Lichtler, Alex C.; Oliver, Bonnie; Mina, Mina

2008-01-01

To address the functions of FGFR2 and FGFR3 signaling during mandibular skeletogenesis, we over-expressed in the developing chick mandible, replication-competent retroviruses carrying truncated FGFR2c or FGFR3c that function as dominant negative receptors (RCAS-dnFGFR2 and RCAS-dnFGFR3). Injection of RCAS-dnFGFR3 between HH15−20 led to reduced proliferation, increased apoptosis, and decreased differentiation of chondroblasts in Meckel's cartilage. These changes resulted in the formation of a hypoplastic mandibular process and truncated Meckel's cartilage. This treatment also affected the proliferation and survival of osteoprogenitor cells in osteogenic condensations, leading to the absence of five mandibular bones on the injected side. Injection of RCAS-dnFGFR2 between HH15−20 or RCAS-dnFGFR3 at HH26 did not affect the morphogenesis of Meckel's cartilage but resulted in truncations of the mandibular bones. RCAS-dnFGFR3 affected the proliferation and survival of the cells within the periosteum and osteoblasts. Together these results demonstrate that FGFR3 signaling is required for the elongation of Meckel's cartilage and FGFR2 and FGFR3 have roles during intramembranous ossification of mandibular bones. PMID:18339367

Selection methods regulate evolution of cooperation in digital evolution

PubMed Central

Lichocki, Paweł; Floreano, Dario; Keller, Laurent

2014-01-01

A key, yet often neglected, component of digital evolution and evolutionary models is the ‘selection method’ which assigns fitness (number of offspring) to individuals based on their performance scores (efficiency in performing tasks). Here, we study with formal analysis and numerical experiments the evolution of cooperation under the five most common selection methods (proportionate, rank, truncation-proportionate, truncation-uniform and tournament). We consider related individuals engaging in a Prisoner's Dilemma game where individuals can either cooperate or defect. A cooperator pays a cost, whereas its partner receives a benefit, which affect their performance scores. These performance scores are translated into fitness by one of the five selection methods. We show that cooperation is positively associated with the relatedness between individuals under all selection methods. By contrast, the change in the performance benefit of cooperation affects the populations’ average level of cooperation only under the proportionate methods. We also demonstrate that the truncation and tournament methods may introduce negative frequency-dependence and lead to the evolution of polymorphic populations. Using the example of the evolution of cooperation, we show that the choice of selection method, though it is often marginalized, can considerably affect the evolutionary dynamics. PMID:24152811

WHIM syndrome caused by a single amino acid substitution in the carboxy-tail of chemokine receptor CXCR4

PubMed Central

Liu, Qian; Chen, Haoqian; Ojode, Teresa; Gao, Xiangxi; Anaya-O'Brien, Sandra; Turner, Nicholas A.; Ulrick, Jean; DeCastro, Rosamma; Kelly, Corin; Cardones, Adela R.; Gold, Stuart H.; Hwang, Eugene I.; Wechsler, Daniel S.; Malech, Harry L.; Murphy, Philip M.

2012-01-01

WHIM syndrome is a rare, autosomal dominant, immunodeficiency disorder so-named because it is characterized by warts, hypogammaglobulinemia, infections, and myelokathexis (defective neutrophil egress from the BM). Gain-of-function mutations that truncate the C-terminus of the chemokine receptor CXCR4 by 10-19 amino acids cause WHIM syndrome. We have identified a family with autosomal dominant inheritance of WHIM syndrome that is caused by a missense mutation in CXCR4, E343K (1027G → A). This mutation is also located in the C-terminal domain, a region responsible for negative regulation of the receptor. Accordingly, like CXCR4R334X, the most common truncation mutation in WHIM syndrome, CXCR4E343K mediated approximately 2-fold increased signaling in calcium flux and chemotaxis assays relative to wild-type CXCR4; however, CXCR4E343K had a reduced effect on blocking normal receptor down-regulation from the cell surface. Therefore, in addition to truncating mutations in the C-terminal domain of CXCR4, WHIM syndrome may be caused by a single charge-changing amino acid substitution in this domain, E343K, that results in increased receptor signaling. PMID:22596258

Stochastic static fault slip inversion from geodetic data with non-negativity and bounds constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocquet, J.-M.

2018-04-01

Despite surface displacements observed by geodesy are linear combinations of slip at faults in an elastic medium, determining the spatial distribution of fault slip remains a ill-posed inverse problem. A widely used approach to circumvent the illness of the inversion is to add regularization constraints in terms of smoothing and/or damping so that the linear system becomes invertible. However, the choice of regularization parameters is often arbitrary, and sometimes leads to significantly different results. Furthermore, the resolution analysis is usually empirical and cannot be made independently of the regularization. The stochastic approach of inverse problems (Tarantola & Valette 1982; Tarantola 2005) provides a rigorous framework where the a priori information about the searched parameters is combined with the observations in order to derive posterior probabilities of the unkown parameters. Here, I investigate an approach where the prior probability density function (pdf) is a multivariate Gaussian function, with single truncation to impose positivity of slip or double truncation to impose positivity and upper bounds on slip for interseismic modeling. I show that the joint posterior pdf is similar to the linear untruncated Gaussian case and can be expressed as a Truncated Multi-Variate Normal (TMVN) distribution. The TMVN form can then be used to obtain semi-analytical formulas for the single, two-dimensional or n-dimensional marginal pdf. The semi-analytical formula involves the product of a Gaussian by an integral term that can be evaluated using recent developments in TMVN probabilities calculations (e.g. Genz & Bretz 2009). Posterior mean and covariance can also be efficiently derived. I show that the Maximum Posterior (MAP) can be obtained using a Non-Negative Least-Squares algorithm (Lawson & Hanson 1974) for the single truncated case or using the Bounded-Variable Least-Squares algorithm (Stark & Parker 1995) for the double truncated case. I show that the case of independent uniform priors can be approximated using TMVN. The numerical equivalence to Bayesian inversions using Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling is shown for a synthetic example and a real case for interseismic modeling in Central Peru. The TMVN method overcomes several limitations of the Bayesian approach using MCMC sampling. First, the need of computer power is largely reduced. Second, unlike Bayesian MCMC based approach, marginal pdf, mean, variance or covariance are obtained independently one from each other. Third, the probability and cumulative density functions can be obtained with any density of points. Finally, determining the Maximum Posterior (MAP) is extremely fast.

A Kramers-Moyal approach to the analysis of third-order noise with applications in option valuation.

PubMed

Popescu, Dan M; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula's theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option's and its underlier's price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a "delta-hedged" portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise.

A Kramers-Moyal Approach to the Analysis of Third-Order Noise with Applications in Option Valuation

PubMed Central

Popescu, Dan M.; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula’s theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option’s and its underlier’s price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a “delta-hedged” portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise. PMID:25625856

The Binomial Distribution in Shooting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chalikias, Miltiadis S.

2009-01-01

The binomial distribution is used to predict the winner of the 49th International Shooting Sport Federation World Championship in double trap shooting held in 2006 in Zagreb, Croatia. The outcome of the competition was definitely unexpected.

Trends in incidence of occupational asthma, contact dermatitis, noise-induced hearing loss, carpal tunnel syndrome and upper limb musculoskeletal disorders in European countries from 2000 to 2012.

PubMed

Stocks, S Jill; McNamee, Roseanne; van der Molen, Henk F; Paris, Christophe; Urban, Pavel; Campo, Giuseppe; Sauni, Riitta; Martínez Jarreta, Begoña; Valenty, Madeleine; Godderis, Lode; Miedinger, David; Jacquetin, Pascal; Gravseth, Hans M; Bonneterre, Vincent; Telle-Lamberton, Maylis; Bensefa-Colas, Lynda; Faye, Serge; Mylle, Godewina; Wannag, Axel; Samant, Yogindra; Pal, Teake; Scholz-Odermatt, Stefan; Papale, Adriano; Schouteden, Martijn; Colosio, Claudio; Mattioli, Stefano; Agius, Raymond

2015-04-01

The European Union (EU) strategy for health and safety at work underlines the need to reduce the incidence of occupational diseases (OD), but European statistics to evaluate this common goal are scarce. We aim to estimate and compare changes in incidence over time for occupational asthma, contact dermatitis, noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) and upper limb musculoskeletal disorders across 10 European countries. OD surveillance systems that potentially reflected nationally representative trends in incidence within Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland and the UK provided data. Case counts were analysed using a negative binomial regression model with year as the main covariate. Many systems collected data from networks of 'centres', requiring the use of a multilevel negative binomial model. Some models made allowance for changes in compensation or reporting rules. Reports of contact dermatitis and asthma, conditions with shorter time between exposure to causal substances and OD, were consistently declining with only a few exceptions. For OD with physical causal exposures there was more variation between countries. Reported NIHL was increasing in Belgium, Spain, Switzerland and the Netherlands and decreasing elsewhere. Trends in CTS and upper limb musculoskeletal disorders varied widely within and between countries. This is the first direct comparison of trends in OD within Europe and is consistent with a positive impact of European initiatives addressing exposures relevant to asthma and contact dermatitis. Taking a more flexible approach allowed comparisons of surveillance data between and within countries without harmonisation of data collection methods. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risk factors related to Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in indoor-housed Dutch dairy goats.

PubMed

Deng, Huifang; Dam-Deisz, Cecile; Luttikholt, Saskia; Maas, Miriam; Nielen, Mirjam; Swart, Arno; Vellema, Piet; van der Giessen, Joke; Opsteegh, Marieke

2016-02-01

Toxoplasma gondii can cause disease in goats, but also has impact on human health through food-borne transmission. Our aims were to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in indoor-housed Dutch dairy goats and to identify the risk factors related to T. gondii seroprevalence. Fifty-two out of ninety approached farmers with indoor-kept goats (58%) participated by answering a standardized questionnaire and contributing 32 goat blood samples each. Serum samples were tested for T. gondii SAG1 antibodies by ELISA and results showed that the frequency distribution of the log10-transformed OD-values fitted well with a binary mixture of a shifted gamma and a shifted reflected gamma distribution. The overall animal seroprevalence was 13.3% (95% CI: 11.7–14.9%), and at least one seropositive animal was found on 61.5% (95% CI: 48.3–74.7%) of the farms. To evaluate potential risk factors on herd level, three modeling strategies (Poisson, negative binomial and zero-inflated) were compared. The negative binomial model fitted the data best with the number of cats (1–4 cats: IR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.1–6.5; > = 5 cats:IR: 14.2, 95% CI: 3.9–51.1) and mean animal age (IR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1–2.1) related to herd positivity. In conclusion, the ELISA test was 100% sensitive and specific based on binary mixture analysis. T. gondii infection is prevalent in indoor housed Dutch dairy goats but at a lower overall animal level seroprevalence than outdoor farmed goats in other European countries, and cat exposure is an important risk factor.

Dental enamel defects, caries experience and oral health-related quality of life: a cohort study.

PubMed

Arrow, P

2017-06-01

The impact of enamel defects of the first permanent molars on caries experience and child oral health-related quality of life was evaluated in a cohort study. Children who participated in a study of enamel defects of the first permanent molars 8 years earlier were invited for a follow-up assessment. Consenting children completed the Child Perception Questionnaire and the faces Modified Child Dental Anxiety Scale, and were examined by two calibrated examiners. ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis, negative binomial and logistic regression were used for data analyses. One hundred and eleven children returned a completed questionnaire and 91 were clinically examined. Negative binomial regression found that oral health impacts were associated with gender (boys, risk ratio (RR) = 0.73, P = 0.03) and decayed, missing or filled permanent teeth (DMFT) (RR = 1.1, P = 0.04). The mean DMFT of children were sound (0.9, standard deviation (SD) = 1.4), diffuse defects (0.8, SD = 1.7), demarcated defects (1.5, SD = 1.4) and pit defects (1.3, SD = 2.3) (Kruskal-Wallis, P = 0.05). Logistic regression of first permanent molar caries found higher odds of caries experience with baseline primary tooth caries experience (odds ratio (OR) = 1.5, P = 0.01), the number of teeth affected by enamel defects (OR = 1.9, P = 0.05) and lower odds with the presence of diffuse enamel defects (OR = 0.1, P = 0.04). The presence of diffuse enamel defects was associated with lower odds of caries experience. © 2016 Australian Dental Association.

EM Adaptive LASSO—A Multilocus Modeling Strategy for Detecting SNPs Associated with Zero-inflated Count Phenotypes

PubMed Central

Mallick, Himel; Tiwari, Hemant K.

2016-01-01

Count data are increasingly ubiquitous in genetic association studies, where it is possible to observe excess zero counts as compared to what is expected based on standard assumptions. For instance, in rheumatology, data are usually collected in multiple joints within a person or multiple sub-regions of a joint, and it is not uncommon that the phenotypes contain enormous number of zeroes due to the presence of excessive zero counts in majority of patients. Most existing statistical methods assume that the count phenotypes follow one of these four distributions with appropriate dispersion-handling mechanisms: Poisson, Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), Negative Binomial, and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). However, little is known about their implications in genetic association studies. Also, there is a relative paucity of literature on their usefulness with respect to model misspecification and variable selection. In this article, we have investigated the performance of several state-of-the-art approaches for handling zero-inflated count data along with a novel penalized regression approach with an adaptive LASSO penalty, by simulating data under a variety of disease models and linkage disequilibrium patterns. By taking into account data-adaptive weights in the estimation procedure, the proposed method provides greater flexibility in multi-SNP modeling of zero-inflated count phenotypes. A fast coordinate descent algorithm nested within an EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is implemented for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. Results show that the proposed method has optimal performance in the presence of multicollinearity, as measured by both prediction accuracy and empirical power, which is especially apparent as the sample size increases. Moreover, the Type I error rates become more or less uncontrollable for the competing methods when a model is misspecified, a phenomenon routinely encountered in practice. PMID:27066062

EM Adaptive LASSO-A Multilocus Modeling Strategy for Detecting SNPs Associated with Zero-inflated Count Phenotypes.

PubMed

Mallick, Himel; Tiwari, Hemant K

2016-01-01

Count data are increasingly ubiquitous in genetic association studies, where it is possible to observe excess zero counts as compared to what is expected based on standard assumptions. For instance, in rheumatology, data are usually collected in multiple joints within a person or multiple sub-regions of a joint, and it is not uncommon that the phenotypes contain enormous number of zeroes due to the presence of excessive zero counts in majority of patients. Most existing statistical methods assume that the count phenotypes follow one of these four distributions with appropriate dispersion-handling mechanisms: Poisson, Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), Negative Binomial, and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). However, little is known about their implications in genetic association studies. Also, there is a relative paucity of literature on their usefulness with respect to model misspecification and variable selection. In this article, we have investigated the performance of several state-of-the-art approaches for handling zero-inflated count data along with a novel penalized regression approach with an adaptive LASSO penalty, by simulating data under a variety of disease models and linkage disequilibrium patterns. By taking into account data-adaptive weights in the estimation procedure, the proposed method provides greater flexibility in multi-SNP modeling of zero-inflated count phenotypes. A fast coordinate descent algorithm nested within an EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is implemented for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. Results show that the proposed method has optimal performance in the presence of multicollinearity, as measured by both prediction accuracy and empirical power, which is especially apparent as the sample size increases. Moreover, the Type I error rates become more or less uncontrollable for the competing methods when a model is misspecified, a phenomenon routinely encountered in practice.

Dental plaque, preventive care, and tooth brushing associated with dental caries in primary teeth in schoolchildren ages 6–9 years of Leon, Nicaragua

PubMed Central

del Socorro Herrera, Miriam; Medina-Solis, Carlo Eduardo; Minaya-Sánchez, Mirna; Pontigo-Loyola, América Patricia; Villalobos-Rodelo, Juan José; Islas-Granillo, Horacio; de la Rosa-Santillana, Rubén; Maupomé, Gerardo

2013-01-01

Background Our study aimed to evaluate the effect of various risk indicators for dental caries on primary teeth of Nicaraguan children (from Leon, Nicaragua) ages 6 to 9, using the negative binomial regression model. Material/Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out to collect clinical, demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data from 794 schoolchildren ages 6 to 9 years, randomly selected from 25 schools in the city of León, Nicaragua. Clinical examinations for dental caries (dmft index) were performed by 2 trained and standardized examiners. Socio-demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data were self-reported using questionnaires. Multivariate negative binomial regression (NBR) analysis was used. Results Mean age was 7.49±1.12 years. Boys accounted for 50.1% of the sample. Mean dmft was 3.54±3.13 and caries prevalence (dmft >0) was 77.6%. In the NBR multivariate model (p<0.05), for each year of age, the expected mean dmft decreased by 7.5%. Brushing teeth at least once a day and having received preventive dental care in the last year before data collection were associated with declines in the expected mean dmft by 19.5% and 69.6%, respectively. Presence of dental plaque increased the expected mean dmft by 395.5%. Conclusions The proportion of students with caries in this sample was high. We found associations between dental caries in the primary dentition and dental plaque, brushing teeth at least once a day, and having received preventive dental care. To improve oral health, school programs and/or age-appropriate interventions need to be developed based on the specific profile of caries experience and the associated risk indicators. PMID:24247119

Frequency distribution of Echinococcus multilocularis and other helminths of foxes in Kyrgyzstan

PubMed Central

I., Ziadinov; P., Deplazes; A., Mathis; B., Mutunova; K., Abdykerimov; R., Nurgaziev; P.R, Torgerson

2010-01-01

Echinococcosis is a major emerging zoonosis in central Asia. A study of the helminth fauna of foxes from Naryn Oblast in central Kyrgyzstan was undertaken to investigate the abundance of Echinococcus multilocularis in a district where a high prevalence of this parasite had previously been detected in dogs. A total of 151 foxes (Vulpes vulpes) were investigated in a necropsy study. Of these 96 (64%) were infected with E. multilocularis with a mean abundance of 8669 parasites per fox. This indicates that red foxes are a major definitive host of E. multilocularis in this country. This also demonstrates that the abundance and prevalence of E. multilocularis in the natural definitive host are likely to be high in geographical regions where there is a concomitant high prevalence in alternative definitive hosts such as dogs. In addition Mesocestoides spp., Dipylidium caninum, Taenia spp., Toxocara canis, Toxascaris leonina, Capillaria and Acanthocephala spp. were found in 99 (66%), 50 (33%), 48 (32%), 46 (30%), 9 (6%), 34 (23%) and 2 (1%) of foxes, respectively. The prevalence but not the abundance of E. multilocularis decreased with age. The abundance of Dipylidium caninum also decreased with age. The frequency distribution of E. multilocularis and Mesocestoides spp. followed a zero inflated negative binomial distribution, whilst all other helminths had a negative binomial distribution. This demonstrates that the frequency distribution of positive counts and not just the frequency of zeros in the data set can determine if a zero inflated or non-zero inflated model is more appropriate. This is because the prevalences of E. multolocularis and Mesocestoides spp. were the highest (and hence had fewest zero counts) yet the parasite distribution nevertheless gave a better fit to the zero inflated models. PMID:20434845

Mycophenolic Acid Pharmacokinetics and Relapse in Children with Steroid–Dependent Idiopathic Nephrotic Syndrome

PubMed Central

Tellier, Stéphanie; Dallocchio, Aymeric; Guigonis, Vincent; Saint-Marcoux, Frank; Llanas, Brigitte; Ichay, Lydia; Bandin, Flavio; Godron, Astrid; Morin, Denis; Brochard, Karine; Gandia, Peggy; Bouchet, Stéphane; Marquet, Pierre; Decramer, Stéphane

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Therapeutic drug monitoring of mycophenolic acid can improve clinical outcome in organ transplantation and lupus, but data are scarce in idiopathic nephrotic syndrome. The aim of our study was to investigate whether mycophenolic acid pharmacokinetics are associated with disease control in children receiving mycophenolate mofetil for the treatment of steroid–dependent nephrotic syndrome. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This was a retrospective multicenter study including 95 children with steroid–dependent nephrotic syndrome treated with mycophenolate mofetil with or without steroids. Area under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid was determined in all children on the basis of sampling times at 20, 60, and 180 minutes postdose, using Bayesian estimation. The association between a threshold value of the area under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid and the relapse rate was assessed using a negative binomial model. Results In total, 140 areas under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid were analyzed. The findings indicate individual dose adaptation in 53 patients (38%) to achieve an area under the concentration-time curve target of 30–60 mg·h/L. In a multivariable negative binomial model including sex, age at disease onset, time to start of mycophenolate mofetil, previous immunomodulatory treatment, and concomitant prednisone dose, a level of area under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid >45 mg·h/L was significantly associated with a lower relapse rate (rate ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.89; P=0.01). Conclusions Therapeutic drug monitoring leading to individualized dosing may improve the efficacy of mycophenolate mofetil in steroid–dependent nephrotic syndrome. Additional prospective studies are warranted to determine the optimal target for area under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid in this population. PMID:27445161

Mycophenolic Acid Pharmacokinetics and Relapse in Children with Steroid-Dependent Idiopathic Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Tellier, Stéphanie; Dallocchio, Aymeric; Guigonis, Vincent; Saint-Marcoux, Frank; Llanas, Brigitte; Ichay, Lydia; Bandin, Flavio; Godron, Astrid; Morin, Denis; Brochard, Karine; Gandia, Peggy; Bouchet, Stéphane; Marquet, Pierre; Decramer, Stéphane; Harambat, Jérôme

2016-10-07

Therapeutic drug monitoring of mycophenolic acid can improve clinical outcome in organ transplantation and lupus, but data are scarce in idiopathic nephrotic syndrome. The aim of our study was to investigate whether mycophenolic acid pharmacokinetics are associated with disease control in children receiving mycophenolate mofetil for the treatment of steroid-dependent nephrotic syndrome. This was a retrospective multicenter study including 95 children with steroid-dependent nephrotic syndrome treated with mycophenolate mofetil with or without steroids. Area under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid was determined in all children on the basis of sampling times at 20, 60, and 180 minutes postdose, using Bayesian estimation. The association between a threshold value of the area under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid and the relapse rate was assessed using a negative binomial model. In total, 140 areas under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid were analyzed. The findings indicate individual dose adaptation in 53 patients (38%) to achieve an area under the concentration-time curve target of 30-60 mg·h/L. In a multivariable negative binomial model including sex, age at disease onset, time to start of mycophenolate mofetil, previous immunomodulatory treatment, and concomitant prednisone dose, a level of area under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid >45 mg·h/L was significantly associated with a lower relapse rate (rate ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.89; P =0.01). Therapeutic drug monitoring leading to individualized dosing may improve the efficacy of mycophenolate mofetil in steroid-dependent nephrotic syndrome. Additional prospective studies are warranted to determine the optimal target for area under the concentration-time curve of mycophenolic acid in this population. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

2014-09-01

Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gingival recession and associated factors in a homogeneous Mexican adult male population: A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Minaya-Sánchez, Mirna; Medina-Solís, Carlo E.; Vallejos-Sánchez, Ana A.; Marquez-Corona, Maria L.; Pontigo-Loyola, América P.; Islas-Granillo, Horacio; Maupomé, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Background: Diverse variables are implicated in the pathogenesis of gingival recession; more detailed knowledge about the relationship between the clinical presentation of gingival recession and assorted risk indicators may lead to improved patient monitoring, early intervention, and subsequent prevention. The objective was to evaluate clinically gingival recession in a homogeneous Mexican adult male population and to determine the strength of association with related factors. Method: A cross-sectional study was carried out in a largely homogeneous group in terms of ethnic background, socioeconomic status, gender, occupation, and medical/dental insurance, in Campeche, Mexico. Periodontal examinations were undertaken to determine diverse clinical dental variables. All periodontal clinical examinations were assessed using the Florida Probe System, a dental chair and one examiner. Questionnaires were used to collect diverse risk indicators. Statistical analyses were undertaken with negative binomial regression models. Results: The mean number of sites with gingival recession per subject was 6.73±5.81; the prevalence was 87.6%. In the negative binomial regression model we observed that for (i) each year of age, and (ii) each percentage unit of increase in sites with plaque, and (iii) with suppuration, mean sites with gingival recession increased 2.9%, 1.0% and 13.0%, respectively. Having a spouse was associated with gingival recession. Conclusions: We observed association between gingival recession, and sociodemographic and clinical parameters. Patients need to be educated about risk indicators for gingival recession as well as the preventive maneuvers that may be implemented to minimize its occurrence. The potential of improved oral self-care to prevent a largely benign condition such as gingival recession is important, given the associated disorders that may ensue root exposure, such as root caries and root hypersensitivity. Key words:Oral health, periodontal health, gingival recession, adults, Mexico. PMID:22549678

Recurrent suicide attempts in patients with depressive and anxiety disorders: the role of borderline personality traits.

PubMed

Stringer, Barbara; van Meijel, Berno; Eikelenboom, Merijn; Koekkoek, Bauke; Licht, Carmilla M M; Kerkhof, Ad J F M; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Beekman, Aartjan T F

2013-10-01

The presence of a comorbid borderline personality disorder (BPD) may be associated with an increase of suicidal behaviors in patients with depressive and anxiety disorders. The aim of this study is to examine the role of borderline personality traits on recurrent suicide attempts. The Netherlands Study on Depression and Anxiety included 1838 respondents with lifetime depressive and/or anxiety disorders, of whom 309 reported at least one previous suicide attempt. A univariable negative binomial regression analysis was performed to examine the association between comorbid borderline personality traits and suicide attempts. Univariable and multivariable negative binomial regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for the number of recurrent suicide attempts in four clusters (type and severity of axis-I disorders, BPD traits, determinants of suicide attempts and socio-demographics). In the total sample the suicide attempt rate ratio increased with 33% for every unit increase in BPD traits. A lifetime diagnosis of dysthymia and comorbid BPD traits, especially the symptoms anger and fights, were independently and significantly associated with recurrent suicide attempts in the final model (n=309). The screening of personality disorders was added to the NESDA assessments at the 4-year follow-up for the first time. Therefore we were not able to examine the influence of comorbid BPD traits on suicide attempts over time. Persons with a lifetime diagnosis of dysthymia combined with borderline personality traits especially difficulties in coping with anger seemed to be at high risk for recurrent suicide attempts. For clinical practice, it is recommended to screen for comorbid borderline personality traits and to strengthen the patient's coping skills with regard to anger. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysing recurrent hospitalizations in heart failure: a review of statistical methodology, with application to CHARM-Preserved.

PubMed

Rogers, Jennifer K; Pocock, Stuart J; McMurray, John J V; Granger, Christopher B; Michelson, Eric L; Östergren, Jan; Pfeffer, Marc A; Solomon, Scott D; Swedberg, Karl; Yusuf, Salim

2014-01-01

Heart failure is characterized by recurrent hospitalizations, but often only the first event is considered in clinical trial reports. In chronic diseases, such as heart failure, analysing all events gives a more complete picture of treatment benefit. We describe methods of analysing repeat hospitalizations, and illustrate their value in one major trial. The Candesartan in Heart failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and morbidity (CHARM)-Preserved study compared candesartan with placebo in 3023 patients with heart failure and preserved systolic function. The heart failure hospitalization rates were 12.5 and 8.9 per 100 patient-years in the placebo and candesartan groups, respectively. The repeat hospitalizations were analysed using the Andersen-Gill, Poisson, and negative binomial methods. Death was incorporated into analyses by treating it as an additional event. The win ratio method and a method that jointly models hospitalizations and mortality were also considered. Using repeat events gave larger treatment benefits than time to first event analysis. The negative binomial method for the composite of recurrent heart failure hospitalizations and cardiovascular death gave a rate ratio of 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62-0.91, P = 0.003], whereas the hazard ratio for time to first heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death was 0.86 (95% CI 0.74-1.00, P = 0.050). In patients with preserved EF, candesartan reduces the rate of admissions for worsening heart failure, to a greater extent than apparent from analysing only first hospitalizations. Recurrent events should be routinely incorporated into the analysis of future clinical trials in heart failure. © 2013 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2013 European Society of Cardiology.

Prediction of different ovarian responses using anti-Müllerian hormone following a long agonist treatment protocol for IVF.

PubMed

Heidar, Z; Bakhtiyari, M; Mirzamoradi, M; Zadehmodarres, S; Sarfjoo, F S; Mansournia, M A

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to predict the poor and excessive ovarian response using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels following a long agonist protocol in IVF candidates. Through a prospective cohort study, the type of relationship and appropriate scale for AMH were determined using the fractional polynomial regression. To determine the effect of AMH on the outcomes of ovarian stimulation and different ovarian responses, the multi-nominal and negative binomial regression models were fitted using backward stepwise method. The ovarian response of study subject who entered a standard long-term treatment cycle with GnRH agonist was evaluated using prediction model, separately and in combined models with (ROC) curves. The use of standard long-term treatments with GnRH agonist led to positive pregnancy test results in 30% of treated patients. With each unit increase in the log of AMH, the odds ratio of having poor response compared to normal response decreases by 64% (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.19-0.68). Also the results of negative binomial regression model indicated that for one unit increase in the log of AMH blood levels, the odds of releasing an oocyte increased 24% (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.35). The optimal cut-off points of AMH for predicting excessive and poor ovarian responses were 3.4 and 1.2 ng/ml, respectively, with area under curves of 0.69 (0.60-0.77) and 0.76 (0.66-0.86), respectively. By considering the age of the patient undergoing infertility treatment as a variable affecting ovulation, use of AMH levels showed to be a good test to discriminate between different ovarian responses.

Clinical and MRI activity as determinants of sample size for pediatric multiple sclerosis trials

PubMed Central

Verhey, Leonard H.; Signori, Alessio; Arnold, Douglas L.; Bar-Or, Amit; Sadovnick, A. Dessa; Marrie, Ruth Ann; Banwell, Brenda

2013-01-01

Objective: To estimate sample sizes for pediatric multiple sclerosis (MS) trials using new T2 lesion count, annualized relapse rate (ARR), and time to first relapse (TTFR) endpoints. Methods: Poisson and negative binomial models were fit to new T2 lesion and relapse count data, and negative binomial time-to-event and exponential models were fit to TTFR data of 42 children with MS enrolled in a national prospective cohort study. Simulations were performed by resampling from the best-fitting model of new T2 lesion count, number of relapses, or TTFR, under various assumptions of the effect size, trial duration, and model parameters. Results: Assuming a 50% reduction in new T2 lesions over 6 months, 90 patients/arm are required, whereas 165 patients/arm are required for a 40% treatment effect. Sample sizes for 2-year trials using relapse-related endpoints are lower than that for 1-year trials. For 2-year trials and a conservative assumption of overdispersion (ϑ), sample sizes range from 70 patients/arm (using ARR) to 105 patients/arm (TTFR) for a 50% reduction in relapses, and 230 patients/arm (ARR) to 365 patients/arm (TTFR) for a 30% relapse reduction. Assuming a less conservative ϑ, 2-year trials using ARR require 45 patients/arm (60 patients/arm for TTFR) for a 50% reduction in relapses and 145 patients/arm (200 patients/arm for TTFR) for a 30% reduction. Conclusion: Six-month phase II trials using new T2 lesion count as an endpoint are feasible in the pediatric MS population; however, trials powered on ARR or TTFR will need to be 2 years in duration and will require multicentered collaboration. PMID:23966255

Evaluation of logistic regression models and effect of covariates for case-control study in RNA-Seq analysis.

PubMed

Choi, Seung Hoan; Labadorf, Adam T; Myers, Richard H; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Dupuis, Josée; DeStefano, Anita L

2017-02-06

Next generation sequencing provides a count of RNA molecules in the form of short reads, yielding discrete, often highly non-normally distributed gene expression measurements. Although Negative Binomial (NB) regression has been generally accepted in the analysis of RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data, its appropriateness has not been exhaustively evaluated. We explore logistic regression as an alternative method for RNA-Seq studies designed to compare cases and controls, where disease status is modeled as a function of RNA-Seq reads using simulated and Huntington disease data. We evaluate the effect of adjusting for covariates that have an unknown relationship with gene expression. Finally, we incorporate the data adaptive method in order to compare false positive rates. When the sample size is small or the expression levels of a gene are highly dispersed, the NB regression shows inflated Type-I error rates but the Classical logistic and Bayes logistic (BL) regressions are conservative. Firth's logistic (FL) regression performs well or is slightly conservative. Large sample size and low dispersion generally make Type-I error rates of all methods close to nominal alpha levels of 0.05 and 0.01. However, Type-I error rates are controlled after applying the data adaptive method. The NB, BL, and FL regressions gain increased power with large sample size, large log2 fold-change, and low dispersion. The FL regression has comparable power to NB regression. We conclude that implementing the data adaptive method appropriately controls Type-I error rates in RNA-Seq analysis. Firth's logistic regression provides a concise statistical inference process and reduces spurious associations from inaccurately estimated dispersion parameters in the negative binomial framework.

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2011-01-01

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

Quality of maternity care and its determinants along the continuum in Kenya: A structural equation modeling analysis

PubMed Central

Mendez, Bomar Rojas

2017-01-01

Background Improving access to delivery services does not guarantee access to quality obstetric care and better survival, and therefore, concerns for quality of maternal and newborn care in low- and middle-income countries have been raised. Our study explored characteristics associated with the quality of initial assessment, intrapartum, and immediate postpartum and newborn care, and further assessed the relationships along the continuum of care. Methods The 2010 Service Provision Assessment data of Kenya for 627 routine deliveries of women aged 15–49 were used. Quality of care measures were assessed using recently validated quality of care measures during initial assessment, intrapartum, and postpartum periods. Data were analyzed with negative binomial regression and structural equation modeling technique. Results The negative binomial regression results identified a number of determinants of quality, such as the level of health facilities, managing authority, presence of delivery fee, central electricity supply and clinical guideline for maternal and neonatal care. Our structural equation modeling (SEM) further demonstrated that facility characteristics were important determinants of quality for initial assessment and postpartum care, while characteristics at the provider level became more important in shaping the quality of intrapartum care. Furthermore we also noted that quality of initial assessment had a positive association with quality of intrapartum care (β = 0.71, p < 0.001), which in turn was positively associated with the quality of newborn and immediate postpartum care (β = 1.29, p = 0.004). Conclusions A continued focus on quality of care along the continuum of maternity care is important not only to mothers but also their newborns. Policymakers should therefore ensure that required resources, as well as adequate supervision and emphasis on the quality of obstetric care, are available. PMID:28520771

Factors Associated with Dental Caries in a Group of American Indian Children at age 36 Months

PubMed Central

Warren, John J.; Blanchette, Derek; Dawson, Deborah V.; Marshall, Teresa A.; Phipps, Kathy R.; Starr, Delores; Drake, David R.

2015-01-01

Objectives Early childhood caries (ECC) is rampant among American Indian children, but there has been relatively little study of this problem. This paper reports on risk factors for caries for a group of American Indian children at age 36 months as part of a longitudinal study. Methods Pregnant women from a Northern Plains Tribal community were recruited to participate in a longitudinal study of caries and caries risk factors. Standardized dental examinations were completed on children and questionnaires were completed by mothers at baseline and when children were 4, 8, 12, 16, 22, 28 and 36 months of age. Examinations were surface-specific for dental caries, and the questionnaires collected data on demographic, dietary and behavioral factors. Non-parametric bivariate tests and logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for caries at 36 months, and negative binomial regression was used to identify factors related to caries severity (dmf counts). Results Among the 232 children, and caries prevalence for cavitated lesions was 80%, with an additional 15% having only non-cavitated lesions. The mean dmfs was 9.6, and of the total dmfs, nearly 62% of affected surfaces were decayed, 31% were missing, and 7% were filled. Logistic regression identified higher added sugar beverage consumption, younger maternal age at baseline, higher maternal DMFS at baseline, and greater number of people in the household as significant (p<0.05) risk factors. Negative binomial regression found that only maternal DMFS was associated with child dmf counts. Conclusions By the age of 36 months, dental caries is nearly universal in this population of American Indian children. Caries risk factors included sugared beverage consumption, greater household size and maternal factors, but further analyses are needed to better understand caries in this population. PMID:26544674

Household expenditure on leprosy outpatient services in the Indian health system: A comparative study

PubMed Central

Suryawanshi, Pramilesh; Raikwar, Akash; Arif, Mohammad; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

2018-01-01

Background Leprosy is a major public health problem in many low and middle income countries, especially in India, and contributes considerably to the global burden of the disease. Leprosy and poverty are closely associated, and therefore the economic burden of leprosy is a concern. However, evidence on patient’s expenditure is scarce. In this study, we estimate the expenditure in primary care (outpatient) by leprosy households in two different public health settings. Methodology/Principal findings We performed a cross-sectional study, comparing the Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli with the Umbergaon block of Valsad, Gujrat, India. A household (HH) survey was conducted between May and October, 2016. We calculated direct and indirect expenditure by zero inflated negative binomial and negative binomial regression. The sampled households were comparable on socioeconomic indicators. The mean direct expenditure was USD 6.5 (95% CI: 2.4–17.9) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 5.4 (95% CI: 3.8–7.9) per visit in Umbergaon. The mean indirect expenditure was USD 8.7 (95% CI: 7.2–10.6) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 12.4 (95% CI: 7.0–21.9) in Umbergaon. The age of the leprosy patients and type of health facilities were the major predictors of total expenditure on leprosy primary care. The higher the age, the higher the expenditure at both sites. The private facilities are more expensive than the government facilities at both sites. If the public health system is enhanced, government facilities are the first preference for patients. Conclusions/Significance An enhanced public health system reduces the patient’s expenditure and improves the health seeking behaviour. We recommend investing in health system strengthening to reduce the economic burden of leprosy. PMID:29300747

Homicide mortality rates in Canada, 2000-2009: Youth at increased risk.

PubMed

Basham, C Andrew; Snider, Carolyn

2016-10-20

To estimate and compare Canadian homicide mortality rates (HMRs) and trends in HMRs across age groups, with a focus on trends for youth. Data for the period of 2000 to 2009 were collected from Statistics Canada's CANSIM (Canadian Statistical Information Management) Table 102-0540 with the following ICD-10-CA coded external causes of death: X85 to Y09 (assault) and Y87.1 (sequelae of assault). Annual population counts from 2000 to 2009 were obtained from Statistics Canada's CANSIM Table 051-0001. Both death and population counts were organized into five-year age groups. A random effects negative binomial regression analysis was conducted to estimate age group-specific rates, rate ratios, and trends in homicide mortality. There were 9,878 homicide deaths in Canada during the study period. The increase in the overall homicide mortality rate (HMR) of 0.3% per year was not statistically significant (95% CI: -1.1% to +1.8%). Canadians aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years had the highest HMRs during the study period, and experienced statistically significant annual increases in their HMRs of 3% and 4% respectively (p < 0.05). A general, though not statistically significant, decrease in the HMR was observed for all age groups 50+ years. A fixed effects negative binomial regression model showed that the HMR for males was higher than for females over the study period [RRfemale/male = 0.473 (95% CI: 0.361, 0.621)], but no significant difference in sex-specific trends in the HMR was found. An increasing risk of homicide mortality was identified among Canadian youth, ages 15-24, over the 10-year study period. Research that seeks to understand the reasons for the increased homicide risk facing Canada's youth, and public policy responses to reduce this risk, are warranted.

Predicting length of stay from an electronic patient record system: a primary total knee replacement example.

PubMed

Carter, Evelene M; Potts, Henry W W

2014-04-04

To investigate whether factors can be identified that significantly affect hospital length of stay from those available in an electronic patient record system, using primary total knee replacements as an example. To investigate whether a model can be produced to predict the length of stay based on these factors to help resource planning and patient expectations on their length of stay. Data were extracted from the electronic patient record system for discharges from primary total knee operations from January 2007 to December 2011 (n=2,130) at one UK hospital and analysed for their effect on length of stay using Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests for discrete data and Spearman's correlation coefficient for continuous data. Models for predicting length of stay for primary total knee replacements were tested using the Poisson regression and the negative binomial modelling techniques. Factors found to have a significant effect on length of stay were age, gender, consultant, discharge destination, deprivation and ethnicity. Applying a negative binomial model to these variables was successful. The model predicted the length of stay of those patients who stayed 4-6 days (~50% of admissions) with 75% accuracy within 2 days (model data). Overall, the model predicted the total days stayed over 5 years to be only 88 days more than actual, a 6.9% uplift (test data). Valuable information can be found about length of stay from the analysis of variables easily extracted from an electronic patient record system. Models can be successfully created to help improve resource planning and from which a simple decision support system can be produced to help patient expectation on their length of stay.

Dental plaque, preventive care, and tooth brushing associated with dental caries in primary teeth in schoolchildren ages 6-9 years of Leon, Nicaragua.

PubMed

Herrera, Miriam del Socorro; Medina-Solís, Carlo Eduardo; Minaya-Sánchez, Mirna; Pontigo-Loyola, América Patricia; Villalobos-Rodelo, Juan José; Islas-Granillo, Horacio; de la Rosa-Santillana, Rubén; Maupomé, Gerardo

2013-11-19

Our study aimed to evaluate the effect of various risk indicators for dental caries on primary teeth of Nicaraguan children (from Leon, Nicaragua) ages 6 to 9, using the negative binomial regression model. A cross-sectional study was carried out to collect clinical, demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data from 794 schoolchildren ages 6 to 9 years, randomly selected from 25 schools in the city of León, Nicaragua. Clinical examinations for dental caries (dmft index) were performed by 2 trained and standardized examiners. Socio-demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data were self-reported using questionnaires. Multivariate negative binomial regression (NBR) analysis was used. Mean age was 7.49 ± 1.12 years. Boys accounted for 50.1% of the sample. Mean dmft was 3.54 ± 3.13 and caries prevalence (dmft >0) was 77.6%. In the NBR multivariate model (p<0.05), for each year of age, the expected mean dmft decreased by 7.5%. Brushing teeth at least once a day and having received preventive dental care in the last year before data collection were associated with declines in the expected mean dmft by 19.5% and 69.6%, respectively. Presence of dental plaque increased the expected mean dmft by 395.5%. The proportion of students with caries in this sample was high. We found associations between dental caries in the primary dentition and dental plaque, brushing teeth at least once a day, and having received preventive dental care. To improve oral health, school programs and/or age-appropriate interventions need to be developed based on the specific profile of caries experience and the associated risk indicators.

Estimating relative risks in multicenter studies with a small number of centers - which methods to use? A simulation study.

PubMed

Pedroza, Claudia; Truong, Van Thi Thanh

2017-11-02

Analyses of multicenter studies often need to account for center clustering to ensure valid inference. For binary outcomes, it is particularly challenging to properly adjust for center when the number of centers or total sample size is small, or when there are few events per center. Our objective was to evaluate the performance of generalized estimating equation (GEE) log-binomial and Poisson models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) assuming binomial and Poisson distributions, and a Bayesian binomial GLMM to account for center effect in these scenarios. We conducted a simulation study with few centers (≤30) and 50 or fewer subjects per center, using both a randomized controlled trial and an observational study design to estimate relative risk. We compared the GEE and GLMM models with a log-binomial model without adjustment for clustering in terms of bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and coverage. For the Bayesian GLMM, we used informative neutral priors that are skeptical of large treatment effects that are almost never observed in studies of medical interventions. All frequentist methods exhibited little bias, and the RMSE was very similar across the models. The binomial GLMM had poor convergence rates, ranging from 27% to 85%, but performed well otherwise. The results show that both GEE models need to use small sample corrections for robust SEs to achieve proper coverage of 95% CIs. The Bayesian GLMM had similar convergence rates but resulted in slightly more biased estimates for the smallest sample sizes. However, it had the smallest RMSE and good coverage across all scenarios. These results were very similar for both study designs. For the analyses of multicenter studies with a binary outcome and few centers, we recommend adjustment for center with either a GEE log-binomial or Poisson model with appropriate small sample corrections or a Bayesian binomial GLMM with informative priors.

The magnetisation distribution of the Ising model - a new approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakan Lundow, Per; Rosengren, Anders

2010-03-01

A completely new approach to the Ising model in 1 to 5 dimensions is developed. We employ a generalisation of the binomial coefficients to describe the magnetisation distributions of the Ising model. For the complete graph this distribution is exact. For simple lattices of dimensions d=1 and d=5 the magnetisation distributions are remarkably well-fitted by the generalized binomial distributions. For d=4 we are only slightly less successful, while for d=2,3 we see some deviations (with exceptions!) between the generalized binomial and the Ising distribution. The results speak in favour of the generalized binomial distribution's correctness regarding their general behaviour in comparison to the Ising model. A theoretical analysis of the distribution's moments also lends support their being correct asymptotically, including the logarithmic corrections in d=4. The full extent to which they correctly model the Ising distribution, and for which graph families, is not settled though.

Phase transition and information cascade in a voting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hisakado, M.; Mori, S.

2010-08-01

In this paper, we introduce a voting model that is similar to a Keynesian beauty contest and analyse it from a mathematical point of view. There are two types of voters—copycat and independent—and two candidates. Our voting model is a binomial distribution (independent voters) doped in a beta binomial distribution (copycat voters). We find that the phase transition in this system is at the upper limit of t, where t is the time (or the number of the votes). Our model contains three phases. If copycats constitute a majority or even half of the total voters, the voting rate converges more slowly than it would in a binomial distribution. If independents constitute the majority of voters, the voting rate converges at the same rate as it would in a binomial distribution. We also study why it is difficult to estimate the conclusion of a Keynesian beauty contest when there is an information cascade.

Abstract knowledge versus direct experience in processing of binomial expressions

PubMed Central

Morgan, Emily; Levy, Roger

2016-01-01

We ask whether word order preferences for binomial expressions of the form A and B (e.g. bread and butter) are driven by abstract linguistic knowledge of ordering constraints referencing the semantic, phonological, and lexical properties of the constituent words, or by prior direct experience with the specific items in questions. Using forced-choice and self-paced reading tasks, we demonstrate that online processing of never-before-seen binomials is influenced by abstract knowledge of ordering constraints, which we estimate with a probabilistic model. In contrast, online processing of highly frequent binomials is primarily driven by direct experience, which we estimate from corpus frequency counts. We propose a trade-off wherein processing of novel expressions relies upon abstract knowledge, while reliance upon direct experience increases with increased exposure to an expression. Our findings support theories of language processing in which both compositional generation and direct, holistic reuse of multi-word expressions play crucial roles. PMID:27776281

Novel formulation of the ℳ model through the Generalized-K distribution for atmospheric optical channels.

PubMed

Garrido-Balsells, José María; Jurado-Navas, Antonio; Paris, José Francisco; Castillo-Vazquez, Miguel; Puerta-Notario, Antonio

2015-03-09

In this paper, a novel and deeper physical interpretation on the recently published Málaga or ℳ statistical distribution is provided. This distribution, which is having a wide acceptance by the scientific community, models the optical irradiance scintillation induced by the atmospheric turbulence. Here, the analytical expressions previously published are modified in order to express them by a mixture of the known Generalized-K and discrete Binomial and Negative Binomial distributions. In particular, the probability density function (pdf) of the ℳ model is now obtained as a linear combination of these Generalized-K pdf, in which the coefficients depend directly on the parameters of the ℳ distribution. In this way, the Málaga model can be physically interpreted as a superposition of different optical sub-channels each of them described by the corresponding Generalized-K fading model and weighted by the ℳ dependent coefficients. The expressions here proposed are simpler than the equations of the original ℳ model and are validated by means of numerical simulations by generating ℳ -distributed random sequences and their associated histogram. This novel interpretation of the Málaga statistical distribution provides a valuable tool for analyzing the performance of atmospheric optical channels for every turbulence condition.

Referent group proximity, social norms, and context: alcohol use in a low-use environment.

PubMed

Cox, Jared M; Bates, Scott C

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between perceived normative use of alcohol and reported consumption in an environment where relatively little alcohol use occurs. A total of 585 undergraduate students completed an online survey on alcohol use in March 2006. Participants reported personal alcohol use and perceptions of use by "friends," "the average student," and "the average student who drinks." Due to the large number of students reporting zero alcohol use, zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to analyze the data. Results showed that perceptions of use and beliefs about the acceptability of use by proximal groups were strongly and positively correlated with personal alcohol use. Perceptions of distal groups were either not correlated or were correlated negatively with personal use. These findings suggest that the use of distal referent groups for a social norms campaign in a low-use environment may have paradoxical effects.

Narrow log-periodic modulations in non-Markovian random walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diniz, R. M. B.; Cressoni, J. C.; da Silva, M. A. A.; Mariz, A. M.; de Araújo, J. M.

2017-12-01

What are the necessary ingredients for log-periodicity to appear in the dynamics of a random walk model? Can they be subtle enough to be overlooked? Previous studies suggest that long-range damaged memory and negative feedback together are necessary conditions for the emergence of log-periodic oscillations. The role of negative feedback would then be crucial, forcing the system to change direction. In this paper we show that small-amplitude log-periodic oscillations can emerge when the system is driven by positive feedback. Due to their very small amplitude, these oscillations can easily be mistaken for numerical finite-size effects. The models we use consist of discrete-time random walks with strong memory correlations where the decision process is taken from memory profiles based either on a binomial distribution or on a delta distribution. Anomalous superdiffusive behavior and log-periodic modulations are shown to arise in the large time limit for convenient choices of the models parameters.

Identity Conflict and Sexual Risk for Black and Latino YMSM.

PubMed

Corsbie-Massay, Charisse L'Pree; Miller, Lynn C; Christensen, John L; Appleby, Paul R; Godoy, Carlos; Read, Stephen J

2017-06-01

Young (aged 18-30) Black and Latino men who have sex with men are at a higher risk of contracting HIV than their White counterparts. In order to better understand the unique nature of sexual risk-taking, we examined the extent to which ethnic group, ethnic identity, and sexual pride predicted condomless anal sex with casual partners among 161 young men who have sex with men (YMSM) who identify as Black or Latino. Negative binomial regressions were conducted using a cross-sectional design. Sexual pride was a negative predictor of condomless anal sex across all participants, but this effect was moderated by ethnic exploration and ethnic group; the relationship between sexual pride and condomless anal sex was strengthened by greater ethnic exploration among Latino YMSM, and weakened by greater ethnic exploration among Black YMSM. Implications for intersectional identity, identity conflict, and HIV prevention among young gay men of color are discussed.

Using linked household-level data sets to explain consumer response to bovine spongiform encepalopathy (BSE) in Canada.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Maynard, Leigh J; Butler, J S; Goddard, Ellen W

2011-01-01

Household-level Canadian meat purchases from 2002 to 2008 and a Food Opinions Survey conducted in 2008 were used to explore consumer responses to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) at the national level in Canada. Consumption in terms of the number of unit purchases was analyzed with a random-effects negative binomial model. In this study, household heterogeneity in meat purchases was partially explained using data from a self-reported food opinions survey. Of special interest was the hypothesis that consumers responded consistently to BSE in a one-time survey and in actual meat purchase behavior spanning years. Regional differences appeared, with consumers in eastern Canada reacting most negatively to BSE. Consumers responded more to the perception that food decision makers are honest about food safety than to the perception that they are knowledgeable, in maintaining beef purchases during BSE events.

Factors related to the number of fast food meals obtained by college meal plan students.

PubMed

Dingman, Deirdre A; Schulz, Mark R; Wyrick, David L; Bibeau, Daniel L; Gupta, Sat N

2014-01-01

This study tested whether days on campus, financial access through a meal plan, and health consciousness were associated with number of meals that college students obtained from fast food restaurants. In April 2013, all students currently enrolled in a meal plan were invited to participate in an online survey (N = 1,246). Students were asked to report the total number of meals eaten in the past week and where they obtained them. Negative binomial regression was used, and it was found that the number of meals obtained from fast food restaurants was positively associated with financial access and negatively associated with health consciousness. An association between days on campus and the number of meals obtained from fast food restaurants was not found. Increasing levels of health consciousness and reducing access to fast food restaurants through flex plans may reduce college students' consumption of fast food.

LS-CAP: an algorithm for identifying cytogenetic aberrations in hepatocellular carcinoma using microarray data.

PubMed

He, Xianmin; Wei, Qing; Sun, Meiqian; Fu, Xuping; Fan, Sichang; Li, Yao

2006-05-01

Biological techniques such as Array-Comparative genomic hybridization (CGH), fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) and affymetrix single nucleotide pleomorphism (SNP) array have been used to detect cytogenetic aberrations. However, on genomic scale, these techniques are labor intensive and time consuming. Comparative genomic microarray analysis (CGMA) has been used to identify cytogenetic changes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using gene expression microarray data. However, CGMA algorithm can not give precise localization of aberrations, fails to identify small cytogenetic changes, and exhibits false negatives and positives. Locally un-weighted smoothing cytogenetic aberrations prediction (LS-CAP) based on local smoothing and binomial distribution can be expected to address these problems. LS-CAP algorithm was built and used on HCC microarray profiles. Eighteen cytogenetic abnormalities were identified, among them 5 were reported previously, and 12 were proven by CGH studies. LS-CAP effectively reduced the false negatives and positives, and precisely located small fragments with cytogenetic aberrations.

[Nursing: the meaning of this profession to nurses. A first approach].

PubMed

Luchesi, Luciana Barizon; Santos, Claudia Benedita dos

2005-01-01

In an attempt to understand, tell and, why not, participate a little in the history of Nursing, we proposed to study the prejudices and negative stereotypes that have permeated this profession over time. This is a before-after experimental type of study in a population of adolescents regularly enrolled in the eleventh grade of a Brazilian public school. The intervention took the form of a lecture about the profession and a questionnaire with closed questions which was applied before and after the lecture. Conclusions were based on the results of binomial and McNemar's non-parametric tests for the significance of changes. Although the statistically significant presence of prejudice and negatives stereotypes was not found, the results of the intervention were in line with expectations, since the changes(or tendency towards changes) took place exactly in those subgroups that showed a greater frequency of stereotypes.

A new zero-inflated negative binomial methodology for latent category identification.

PubMed

Blanchard, Simon J; DeSarbo, Wayne S

2013-04-01

We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic example and a consumer psychology study involving categories of restaurant brands illustrate how the application of the proposed methodology to the new sorting task can account for a variety of categorization phenomena including multiple category memberships and for heterogeneity through individual differences in the saliency of latent category structures.

Probing the statistics of primordial fluctuations and their evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaztanaga, Enrique; Yokoyama, Jun'ichi

1993-01-01

The statistical distribution of fluctuations on various scales is analyzed in terms of the counts in cells of smoothed density fields, using volume-limited samples of galaxy redshift catalogs. It is shown that the distribution on large scales, with volume average of the two-point correlation function of the smoothed field less than about 0.05, is consistent with Gaussian. Statistics are shown to agree remarkably well with the negative binomial distribution, which has hierarchial correlations and a Gaussian behavior at large scales. If these observed properties correspond to the matter distribution, they suggest that our universe started with Gaussian fluctuations and evolved keeping hierarchial form.

Negative Binomial Fits to Multiplicity Distributions from Central Collisions of (16)O+Cu at 14.6A GeV/c and Intermittency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tannenbaum, M. J.

1994-01-01

The concept of "Intermittency" was introduced by Bialas and Peschanski to try to explain the "large" fluctuations of multiplicity in restricted intervals of rapidity or pseudorapidity. A formalism was proposed to to study non-statistical (more precisely, non-Poisson) fluctuations as a function of the size of rapidity interval, and it was further suggested that the "spikes" in the rapidity fluctuations were evidence of fractal or intermittent behavior, in analogy to turbulence in fluid dynamics which is characterized by self-similar fluctuations at all scales-the absence of well defined scale of length.

Definite Integrals, Some Involving Residue Theory Evaluated by Maple Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, Kimiko o

2010-01-01

The calculus of residue is applied to evaluate certain integrals in the range (-{infinity} to {infinity}) using the Maple symbolic code. These integrals are of the form {integral}{sub -{infinity}}{sup {infinity}} cos(x)/[(x{sup 2} + a{sup 2})(x{sup 2} + b{sup 2}) (x{sup 2} + c{sup 2})]dx and similar extensions. The Maple code is also applied to expressions in maximum likelihood estimator moments when sampling from the negative binomial distribution. In general the Maple code approach to the integrals gives correct answers to specified decimal places, but the symbolic result may be extremely long and complex.

On extinction time of a generalized endemic chain-binomial model.

PubMed

Aydogmus, Ozgur

2016-09-01

We considered a chain-binomial epidemic model not conferring immunity after infection. Mean field dynamics of the model has been analyzed and conditions for the existence of a stable endemic equilibrium are determined. The behavior of the chain-binomial process is probabilistically linked to the mean field equation. As a result of this link, we were able to show that the mean extinction time of the epidemic increases at least exponentially as the population size grows. We also present simulation results for the process to validate our analytical findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Abscisic Acid Antagonizes Ethylene Production through the ABI4-Mediated Transcriptional Repression of ACS4 and ACS8 in Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Dong, Zhijun; Yu, Yanwen; Li, Shenghui; Wang, Juan; Tang, Saijun; Huang, Rongfeng

2016-01-04

Increasing evidence has revealed that abscisic acid (ABA) negatively modulates ethylene biosynthesis, although the underlying mechanism remains unclear. To identify the factors involved, we conducted a screen for ABA-insensitive mutants with altered ethylene production in Arabidopsis. A dominant allele of ABI4, abi4-152, which produces a putative protein with a 16-amino-acid truncation at the C-terminus of ABI4, reduces ethylene production. By contrast, two recessive knockout alleles of ABI4, abi4-102 and abi4-103, result in increased ethylene evolution, indicating that ABI4 negatively regulates ethylene production. Further analyses showed that expression of the ethylene biosynthesis genes ACS4, ACS8, and ACO2 was significantly decreased in abi4-152 but increased in the knockout mutants, with partial dependence on ABA. Chromatin immunoprecipitation-quantitative PCR assays showed that ABI4 directly binds the promoters of these ethylene biosynthesis genes and that ABA enhances this interaction. A fusion protein containing the truncated ABI4-152 peptide accumulated to higher levels than its full-length counterpart in transgenic plants, suggesting that ABI4 is destabilized by its C terminus. Therefore, our results demonstrate that ABA negatively regulates ethylene production through ABI4-mediated transcriptional repression of the ethylene biosynthesis genes ACS4 and ACS8 in Arabidopsis. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Solar San Diego: The Impact of Binomial Rate Structures on Real PV Systems; Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

VanGeet, O.; Brown, E.; Blair, T.

2008-05-01

There is confusion in the marketplace regarding the impact of solar photovoltaics (PV) on the user's actual electricity bill under California Net Energy Metering, particularly with binomial tariffs (those that include both demand and energy charges) and time-of-use (TOU) rate structures. The City of San Diego has extensive real-time electrical metering on most of its buildings and PV systems, with interval data for overall consumption and PV electrical production available for multiple years. This paper uses 2007 PV-system data from two city facilities to illustrate the impacts of binomial rate designs. The analysis will determine the energy and demand savingsmore » that the PV systems are achieving relative to the absence of systems. A financial analysis of PV-system performance under various rate structures is presented. The data revealed that actual demand and energy use benefits of binomial tariffs increase in summer months, when solar resources allow for maximized electricity production. In a binomial tariff system, varying on- and semi-peak times can result in approximately $1,100 change in demand charges per month over not having a PV system in place, an approximate 30% cost savings. The PV systems are also shown to have a 30%-50% reduction in facility energy charges in 2007.« less

De Novo Truncating Mutations in the Last and Penultimate Exons of PPM1D Cause an Intellectual Disability Syndrome.

PubMed

Jansen, Sandra; Geuer, Sinje; Pfundt, Rolph; Brough, Rachel; Ghongane, Priyanka; Herkert, Johanna C; Marco, Elysa J; Willemsen, Marjolein H; Kleefstra, Tjitske; Hannibal, Mark; Shieh, Joseph T; Lynch, Sally Ann; Flinter, Frances; FitzPatrick, David R; Gardham, Alice; Bernhard, Birgitta; Ragge, Nicola; Newbury-Ecob, Ruth; Bernier, Raphael; Kvarnung, Malin; Magnusson, E A Helena; Wessels, Marja W; van Slegtenhorst, Marjon A; Monaghan, Kristin G; de Vries, Petra; Veltman, Joris A; Lord, Christopher J; Vissers, Lisenka E L M; de Vries, Bert B A

2017-04-06

Intellectual disability (ID) is a highly heterogeneous disorder involving at least 600 genes, yet a genetic diagnosis remains elusive in ∼35%-40% of individuals with moderate to severe ID. Recent meta-analyses statistically analyzing de novo mutations in >7,000 individuals with neurodevelopmental disorders highlighted mutations in PPM1D as a possible cause of ID. PPM1D is a type 2C phosphatase that functions as a negative regulator of cellular stress-response pathways by mediating a feedback loop of p38-p53 signaling, thereby contributing to growth inhibition and suppression of stress-induced apoptosis. We identified 14 individuals with mild to severe ID and/or developmental delay and de novo truncating PPM1D mutations. Additionally, deep phenotyping revealed overlapping behavioral problems (ASD, ADHD, and anxiety disorders), hypotonia, broad-based gait, facial dysmorphisms, and periods of fever and vomiting. PPM1D is expressed during fetal brain development and in the adult brain. All mutations were located in the last or penultimate exon, suggesting escape from nonsense-mediated mRNA decay. Both PPM1D expression analysis and cDNA sequencing in EBV LCLs of individuals support the presence of a stable truncated transcript, consistent with this hypothesis. Exposure of cells derived from individuals with PPM1D truncating mutations to ionizing radiation resulted in normal p53 activation, suggesting that p53 signaling is unaffected. However, a cell-growth disadvantage was observed, suggesting a possible effect on the stress-response pathway. Thus, we show that de novo truncating PPM1D mutations in the last and penultimate exons cause syndromic ID, which provides additional insight into the role of cell-cycle checkpoint genes in neurodevelopmental disorders. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Truncating SLC5A7 mutations underlie a spectrum of dominant hereditary motor neuropathies

PubMed Central

Salter, Claire G.; Beijer, Danique; Hardy, Holly; Barwick, Katy E.S.; Bower, Matthew; Mademan, Ines; De Jonghe, Peter; Deconinck, Tine; Russell, Mark A.; McEntagart, Meriel M.; Chioza, Barry A.; Blakely, Randy D.; Chilton, John K.; De Bleecker, Jan; Baets, Jonathan; Baple, Emma L.

2018-01-01

Objective To identify the genetic cause of disease in 2 previously unreported families with forms of distal hereditary motor neuropathies (dHMNs). Methods The first family comprises individuals affected by dHMN type V, which lacks the cardinal clinical feature of vocal cord paralysis characteristic of dHMN-VII observed in the second family. Next-generation sequencing was performed on the proband of each family. Variants were annotated and filtered, initially focusing on genes associated with neuropathy. Candidate variants were further investigated and confirmed by dideoxy sequence analysis and cosegregation studies. Thorough patient phenotyping was completed, comprising clinical history, examination, and neurologic investigation. Results dHMNs are a heterogeneous group of peripheral motor neuron disorders characterized by length-dependent neuropathy and progressive distal limb muscle weakness and wasting. We previously reported a dominant-negative frameshift mutation located in the concluding exon of the SLC5A7 gene encoding the choline transporter (CHT), leading to protein truncation, as the likely cause of dominantly-inherited dHMN-VII in an extended UK family. In this study, our genetic studies identified distinct heterozygous frameshift mutations located in the last coding exon of SLC5A7, predicted to result in the truncation of the CHT C-terminus, as the likely cause of the condition in each family. Conclusions This study corroborates C-terminal CHT truncation as a cause of autosomal dominant dHMN, confirming upper limb predominating over lower limb involvement, and broadening the clinical spectrum arising from CHT malfunction. PMID:29582019

De Novo Truncating Variants in ASXL2 Are Associated with a Unique and Recognizable Clinical Phenotype.

PubMed

Shashi, Vandana; Pena, Loren D M; Kim, Katherine; Burton, Barbara; Hempel, Maja; Schoch, Kelly; Walkiewicz, Magdalena; McLaughlin, Heather M; Cho, Megan; Stong, Nicholas; Hickey, Scott E; Shuss, Christine M; Freemark, Michael S; Bellet, Jane S; Keels, Martha Ann; Bonner, Melanie J; El-Dairi, Maysantoine; Butler, Megan; Kranz, Peter G; Stumpel, Constance T R M; Klinkenberg, Sylvia; Oberndorff, Karin; Alawi, Malik; Santer, Rene; Petrovski, Slavé; Kuismin, Outi; Korpi-Heikkilä, Satu; Pietilainen, Olli; Aarno, Palotie; Kurki, Mitja I; Hoischen, Alexander; Need, Anna C; Goldstein, David B; Kortüm, Fanny

2016-10-06

The ASXL genes (ASXL1, ASXL2, and ASXL3) participate in body patterning during embryogenesis and encode proteins involved in epigenetic regulation and assembly of transcription factors to specific genomic loci. Germline de novo truncating variants in ASXL1 and ASXL3 have been respectively implicated in causing Bohring-Opitz and Bainbridge-Ropers syndromes, which result in overlapping features of severe intellectual disability and dysmorphic features. ASXL2 has not yet been associated with a human Mendelian disorder. In this study, we performed whole-exome sequencing in six unrelated probands with developmental delay, macrocephaly, and dysmorphic features. All six had de novo truncating variants in ASXL2. A careful review enabled the recognition of a specific phenotype consisting of macrocephaly, prominent eyes, arched eyebrows, hypertelorism, a glabellar nevus flammeus, neonatal feeding difficulties, hypotonia, and developmental disabilities. Although overlapping features with Bohring-Opitz and Bainbridge-Ropers syndromes exist, features that distinguish the ASXL2-associated condition from ASXL1- and ASXL3-related disorders are macrocephaly, absence of growth retardation, and more variability in the degree of intellectual disabilities. We were also able to demonstrate with mRNA studies that these variants are likely to exert a dominant-negative effect, given that both alleles are expressed in blood and the mutated ASXL2 transcripts escape nonsense-mediated decay. In conclusion, de novo truncating variants in ASXL2 underlie a neurodevelopmental syndrome with a clinically recognizable phenotype. This report expands the germline disorders that are linked to the ASXL genes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

First insights into the protective effects of a recombinant swinepox virus expressing truncated MRP of Streptococcus suis type 2 in mice.

PubMed

Huang, Dongyan; Zhu, Haodan; Lin, Huixing; Xu, Jiarong; Lu, Chengping

2012-01-01

To explore the potential of the swinepox virus (SPV) as vector for Streptococcus suis vaccines, a vector system was developed for the construction of a recombinant SPV carrying bacterial genes. Using this system, a recombinant virus expressing truncated muramidase-released protein (MRP) of S. suis type 2 (SS2), designated rSPV-MRP, was produced and identified by PCR, western blotting and immunofluorescence assays. The rSPV-MRP was found to be only slightly attenuated in PK-15 cells, when compared with the wild-type virus. After immunization intramuscularly with rSPV-MRP, SS2 inactive vaccine (positive control), wild-type SPV (negative control) and PBS (blank control) respectively, all CD1 mice were challenged with a lethal dose or a sublethal dose of SS2 highly virulent strain ZY05719. While SS2 inactive vaccine protected all mice, immunization with rSPV-MRP resulted in 60% survival and protected mice against a lethal dose of the highly virulent SS2 strain, compared with the negative control (P < 0.05). Our data indicate that animals immunized with rSPV-MRP had a significantly reduced bacterial burden in all organs examined, compared to negative controls and blank controls (P <0.05). Antibody titers of the rSPV-MRP-vaccinated group were significantly higher (P <0.001), when compared to negative controls and blank controls. Antibody titers were also significantly higher in the vaccinated group at all time points post-vaccination (P <0.001), compared with the positive controls. These initial results demonstrated that the rSPV-MRP provided mice with protection from systemic SS2 infection. If SPV recombinants have the potential as S. suis vaccines for the use in pigs has to be evaluated in further studies.

Gender-Specific Determinants and Patterns of Online Health Information Seeking: Results From a Representative German Health Survey.

PubMed

Baumann, Eva; Czerwinski, Fabian; Reifegerste, Doreen

2017-04-04

Online health information-seeking behavior (OHISB) is currently a widespread and common behavior that has been described as an important prerequisite of empowerment and health literacy. Although demographic factors such as socioeconomic status (SES), age, and gender have been identified as important determinants of OHISB, research is limited regarding the gender-specific motivational determinants of OHISB and differences between women and men in the use of online resources for health information purposes. The aim of this study was to identify gender-specific determinants and patterns of OHISB by analyzing data from a representative German sample of adults (N=1728) with special attention to access and frequency of use as well as topics and sources of OHISB. We employed a 2-step analysis, that is, after exploring differences between users and nonusers of online health information using logistic regression models, we highlighted gender-specific determinants of the frequency of OHISB by applying zero-truncated negative binomial models. Age (odds ratio, OR for females=0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99) and degree of satisfaction with one's general practitioner (GP) (OR for males=0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.92) were gender-specific determinants of access to OHISB. Regarding the frequency of OHISB, daily Internet use (incidence rate ratio, IRR=1.67, 95% CI 1.19-2.33) and a strong interest in health topics (IRR=1.45, 95% CI 1.19-1.77) were revealed to be more important predictors than SES (IRR for high SES=1.25, 95% CI 0.91-1.73). Users indicate that the Internet seems to be capable of providing a valuable source of informational support and patient empowerment. Increasing the potential value of the Internet as a source for health literacy and patient empowerment requires need-oriented and gender-specific health communication efforts, media, and information strategies. ©Eva Baumann, Fabian Czerwinski, Doreen Reifegerste. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 04.04.2017.

A bibliometric analysis of childhood immunization research productivity in Africa since the onset of the Expanded Program on Immunization in 1974

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The implementation of strategic immunization plans whose development is informed by available locally-relevant research evidence should improve immunization coverage and prevent disease, disability and death in Africa. In general, health research helps to answer questions, generate the evidence required to guide policy and identify new tools. However, factors that influence the publication of immunization research in Africa are not known. We, therefore, undertook this study to fill this research gap by providing insights into factors associated with childhood immunization research productivity on the continent. We postulated that research productivity influences immunization coverage. Methods We conducted a bibliometric analysis of childhood immunization research output from Africa, using research articles indexed in PubMed as a surrogate for total research productivity. We used zero-truncated negative binomial regression models to explore the factors associated with research productivity. Results We identified 1,641 articles on childhood immunization indexed in PubMed between 1974 and 2010 with authors from Africa, which represent only 8.9% of the global output. Five countries (South Africa, Nigeria, The Gambia, Egypt and Kenya) contributed 48% of the articles. After controlling for population and gross domestic product, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Sao Tome and Principe were the most productive countries. In univariable analyses, the country's gross domestic product, total health expenditure, private health expenditure, and research and development expenditure had a significant positive association with increased research productivity. Immunization coverage, adult literacy rate, human development index and physician density had no significant association. In the multivarable model, only private health expenditure maintained significant statistical association with the number of immunization articles. Conclusions Immunization research productivity in Africa is highly skewed, with private health expenditure having a significant positive association. However, the current contribution of authors from Africa to global childhood immunization research output is minimal. The lack of association between research productivity and immunization coverage may be an indication of lack of interactive communication between health decision-makers, program managers and researchers; to ensure that immunization policies and plans are always informed by the best available evidence. PMID:23497441

People with multiple unhealthy lifestyles are less likely to consult primary healthcare

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Behavioural interventions are often implemented within primary healthcare settings to prevent type 2 diabetes and other lifestyle-related diseases. Although smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and poor diet are associated with poorer health that may lead a person to consult a general practitioner (GP), previous work has shown that unhealthy lifestyles cluster among low socioeconomic groups who are less likely to seek primary healthcare. Therefore, it is uncertain whether behavioural interventions in primary healthcare are reaching those in most need. This study investigated patterns of GP consultations in relation to the clustering of unhealthy lifestyles among a large sample of adults aged 45 years and older in New South Wales, Australia. Methods A total of 267,153 adults participated in the 45 and Up Study between 2006 and 2009, comprising 10% of the equivalent demographic in the state of New South Wales, Australia (response rate: 18%). All consultations with GPs within 6 months prior and post survey completion were identified (with many respondents attending multiple GPs) via linkage to Medicare Australia data. An index of unhealthy lifestyles was constructed from self-report data on adherence to published guidelines on smoking, alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity. Logistic and zero-truncated negative binomial regression models were used to analyse: (i) whether or not a person had at least one GP consultation within the study period; (ii) the count of GP consultations attended by each participant who visited a GP at least once. Analyses were adjusted for measures of health status, socioeconomic circumstances and other confounders. Results After adjustment, participants scoring 7 unhealthy lifestyles were 24% more likely than persons scoring 0 unhealthy lifestyles not to have attended any GP consultation in the 12-month time period. Among those who attended at least one consultation, those with 7 unhealthy lifestyles reported 7% fewer consultations than persons with 0 unhealthy lifestyles. No effect modification was observed. Conclusion To optimise the prevention of lifestyle-related diseases, interventions for positive behavioural change need to incorporate non-primary healthcare settings in order to reach people with multiple unhealthy lifestyles. PMID:24965672

People with multiple unhealthy lifestyles are less likely to consult primary healthcare.

PubMed

Feng, Xiaoqi; Girosi, Federico; McRae, Ian S

2014-06-26

Behavioural interventions are often implemented within primary healthcare settings to prevent type 2 diabetes and other lifestyle-related diseases. Although smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and poor diet are associated with poorer health that may lead a person to consult a general practitioner (GP), previous work has shown that unhealthy lifestyles cluster among low socioeconomic groups who are less likely to seek primary healthcare. Therefore, it is uncertain whether behavioural interventions in primary healthcare are reaching those in most need. This study investigated patterns of GP consultations in relation to the clustering of unhealthy lifestyles among a large sample of adults aged 45 years and older in New South Wales, Australia. A total of 267,153 adults participated in the 45 and Up Study between 2006 and 2009, comprising 10% of the equivalent demographic in the state of New South Wales, Australia (response rate: 18%). All consultations with GPs within 6 months prior and post survey completion were identified (with many respondents attending multiple GPs) via linkage to Medicare Australia data. An index of unhealthy lifestyles was constructed from self-report data on adherence to published guidelines on smoking, alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity. Logistic and zero-truncated negative binomial regression models were used to analyse: (i) whether or not a person had at least one GP consultation within the study period; (ii) the count of GP consultations attended by each participant who visited a GP at least once. Analyses were adjusted for measures of health status, socioeconomic circumstances and other confounders. After adjustment, participants scoring 7 unhealthy lifestyles were 24% more likely than persons scoring 0 unhealthy lifestyles not to have attended any GP consultation in the 12-month time period. Among those who attended at least one consultation, those with 7 unhealthy lifestyles reported 7% fewer consultations than persons with 0 unhealthy lifestyles. No effect modification was observed. To optimise the prevention of lifestyle-related diseases, interventions for positive behavioural change need to incorporate non-primary healthcare settings in order to reach people with multiple unhealthy lifestyles.

Comparison and Field Validation of Binomial Sampling Plans for Oligonychus perseae (Acari: Tetranychidae) on Hass Avocado in Southern California.

PubMed

Lara, Jesus R; Hoddle, Mark S

2015-08-01

Oligonychus perseae Tuttle, Baker, & Abatiello is a foliar pest of 'Hass' avocados [Persea americana Miller (Lauraceae)]. The recommended action threshold is 50-100 motile mites per leaf, but this count range and other ecological factors associated with O. perseae infestations limit the application of enumerative sampling plans in the field. Consequently, a comprehensive modeling approach was implemented to compare the practical application of various binomial sampling models for decision-making of O. perseae in California. An initial set of sequential binomial sampling models were developed using three mean-proportion modeling techniques (i.e., Taylor's power law, maximum likelihood, and an empirical model) in combination with two-leaf infestation tally thresholds of either one or two mites. Model performance was evaluated using a robust mite count database consisting of >20,000 Hass avocado leaves infested with varying densities of O. perseae and collected from multiple locations. Operating characteristic and average sample number results for sequential binomial models were used as the basis to develop and validate a standardized fixed-size binomial sampling model with guidelines on sample tree and leaf selection within blocks of avocado trees. This final validated model requires a leaf sampling cost of 30 leaves and takes into account the spatial dynamics of O. perseae to make reliable mite density classifications for a 50-mite action threshold. Recommendations for implementing this fixed-size binomial sampling plan to assess densities of O. perseae in commercial California avocado orchards are discussed. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Depressive Symptoms, Religious Coping, and Cigarette Smoking Among Post-secondary Vocational Students

PubMed Central

Horton, Karissa D.; Loukas, Alexandra

2014-01-01

Depressive symptoms are associated with increased levels of cigarette smoking, yet not every individual experiencing depressive symptoms smokes. This study examined whether religious coping moderated the impact of depressive symptoms on past 30-day cigarette use among a racially/ethnically diverse sample of 963 post-secondary vocational students (46.8% women; mean age = 25 years). Results from negative binomial regression analyses indicated that depressive symptoms increased the likelihood of cigarette smoking (quantity-frequency measure of cigarette use) for female students, whereas positive religious coping decreased the likelihood of smoking for female students. Consistent with religious coping theory and as expected, negative religious coping moderated the depressive symptoms-smoking relationship such that negative religious coping exacerbated the impact of depressive symptoms on cigarette smoking among females. Positive religious coping also moderated the depressive symptoms-cigarette smoking relationship for females. However, contrary to expectations, high levels of positive religious coping exacerbated the likelihood of cigarette smoking among females with high levels of depressive symptoms. Surprisingly, neither depressive symptoms nor positive or negative religious coping contributed to the likelihood of males’ smoking. Study limitations and suggestions for directions in future research are discussed. PMID:23276324

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Washington, Simon P; Ivan, John N

2005-01-01

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states-perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed-and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros.

Using the Binomial Series to Prove the Arithmetic Mean-Geometric Mean Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Persky, Ronald L.

2003-01-01

In 1968, Leon Gerber compared (1 + x)[superscript a] to its kth partial sum as a binomial series. His result is stated and, as an application of this result, a proof of the arithmetic mean-geometric mean inequality is presented.

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials.

PubMed

Postler, Thomas S; Clawson, Anna N; Amarasinghe, Gaya K; Basler, Christopher F; Bavari, Sbina; Benko, Mária; Blasdell, Kim R; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Rémi; Clegg, Christopher S; Collins, Peter L; Juan Carlos, De La Torre; Derisi, Joseph L; Dietzgen, Ralf G; Dolnik, Olga; Dürrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M; Easton, Andrew J; Emonet, Sébastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A M; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balázs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiang, Dàohóng; Kobinger, Gary; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew M; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A; Leroy, Eric M; Lukashevich, Igor S; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady R; Netesov, Sergey V; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L; Payne, Susan L; PaWeska, Janusz T; Peters, Clarence J; Radoshitzky, Sheli R; Rima, Bertus K; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfaçon, Hélène; Salvato, Maria S; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J; Stenglein, Mark D; Stone, David M; Takada, Ayato; Tesh, Robert B; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, Noël; Towner, Jonathan S; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Viktor E; Wahl-Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield, Anna E; Zerbini, F Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H

2017-05-01

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. [Arenaviridae; binomials; ICTV; International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses; Mononegavirales; virus nomenclature; virus taxonomy.]. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Society of Systematic Biologists 2016. This work is written by a US Government employee and is in the public domain in the US.

The arcsine is asinine: the analysis of proportions in ecology.

PubMed

Warton, David I; Hui, Francis K C

2011-01-01

The arcsine square root transformation has long been standard procedure when analyzing proportional data in ecology, with applications in data sets containing binomial and non-binomial response variables. Here, we argue that the arcsine transform should not be used in either circumstance. For binomial data, logistic regression has greater interpretability and higher power than analyses of transformed data. However, it is important to check the data for additional unexplained variation, i.e., overdispersion, and to account for it via the inclusion of random effects in the model if found. For non-binomial data, the arcsine transform is undesirable on the grounds of interpretability, and because it can produce nonsensical predictions. The logit transformation is proposed as an alternative approach to address these issues. Examples are presented in both cases to illustrate these advantages, comparing various methods of analyzing proportions including untransformed, arcsine- and logit-transformed linear models and logistic regression (with or without random effects). Simulations demonstrate that logistic regression usually provides a gain in power over other methods.

[The reentrant binomial model of nuclear anomalies growth in rhabdomyosarcoma RA-23 cell populations under increasing doze of rare ionizing radiation].

PubMed

Alekseeva, N P; Alekseev, A O; Vakhtin, Iu B; Kravtsov, V Iu; Kuzovatov, S N; Skorikova, T I

2008-01-01

Distributions of nuclear morphology anomalies in transplantable rabdomiosarcoma RA-23 cell populations were investigated under effect of ionizing radiation from 0 to 45 Gy. Internuclear bridges, nuclear protrusions and dumbbell-shaped nuclei were accepted for morphological anomalies. Empirical distributions of the number of anomalies per 100 nuclei were used. The adequate model of reentrant binomial distribution has been found. The sum of binomial random variables with binomial number of summands has such distribution. Averages of these random variables were named, accordingly, internal and external average reentrant components. Their maximum likelihood estimations were received. Statistical properties of these estimations were investigated by means of statistical modeling. It has been received that at equally significant correlation between the radiation dose and the average of nuclear anomalies in cell populations after two-three cellular cycles from the moment of irradiation in vivo the irradiation doze significantly correlates with internal average reentrant component, and in remote descendants of cell transplants irradiated in vitro - with external one.

On Models for Binomial Data with Random Numbers of Trials

PubMed Central

Comulada, W. Scott; Weiss, Robert E.

2010-01-01

Summary A binomial outcome is a count s of the number of successes out of the total number of independent trials n = s + f, where f is a count of the failures. The n are random variables not fixed by design in many studies. Joint modeling of (s, f) can provide additional insight into the science and into the probability π of success that cannot be directly incorporated by the logistic regression model. Observations where n = 0 are excluded from the binomial analysis yet may be important to understanding how π is influenced by covariates. Correlation between s and f may exist and be of direct interest. We propose Bayesian multivariate Poisson models for the bivariate response (s, f), correlated through random effects. We extend our models to the analysis of longitudinal and multivariate longitudinal binomial outcomes. Our methodology was motivated by two disparate examples, one from teratology and one from an HIV tertiary intervention study. PMID:17688514

Environmental and genetic factors affecting cow survival of Israeli Holsteins.

PubMed

Weller, J I; Ezra, E

2015-01-01

The objectives were to investigate the effects of various environmental factors that may affect herd-life of Israeli Holsteins, including first-calving age and season, calving ease, number of progeny born, and service sire for first calving in complete and truncated records; and to estimate heritabilities and genetic correlations between herd-life and the other traits included in the Israeli breeding index. The basic data set consisted of 590,869 cows in milk recording herds with first freshening day between 1985 and at least 8 yr before the cut-off date of September 15, 2013. Herd-life was measured as days from first calving to culling. The phenotypic and genetic trends for herd-life were 5.7 and 16.8d/yr. The genetic trend was almost linear, whereas the phenotypic trend showed 4 peaks and 3 valleys. Cows born in February and March had the shortest herd-life, whereas cows born in September had the longest herd-life. Herd-life was maximal with calving age of 23mo, which is 1mo less than the mean calving age, and minimal at 19 and 31mo of calving age. Dystocia and twinning on first-parity calving reduced herd-life by approximately180 and 120d, but the interaction effect increased herd-life by 140d. Heritability for herd-life was 0.14. Despite the fact that the service sire effect was significant in the fixed model analysis, service sire effect accounted for <0.05% of the total variance. In the analysis of 1,431,938 truncated records, the effects of dystocia and twinning rate were very similar but less than 50% of the effects found in the analysis of complete records. Pregnancy at the truncation date increased expected herd-life by 432d. The correlation between actual herd-life and predicted herd-life based on truncated records was 0.44. Genetic correlations between the truncated records and actual herd-life were 0.75 for records truncated after 6mo but approached unity for records truncated after 3 yr. The genetic correlations of herd-life with first-parity milk, fat, and protein production, somatic cell score (SCS), and female fertility were all positive, except for SCS, in which negative values are economically favorable. The highest correlations with herd-life in absolute value were with female fertility and SCS. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spiritual and ceremonial plants in North America: an assessment of Moerman's ethnobotanical database comparing Residual, Binomial, Bayesian and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analysis.

PubMed

Turi, Christina E; Murch, Susan J

2013-07-09

Ethnobotanical research and the study of plants used for rituals, ceremonies and to connect with the spirit world have led to the discovery of many novel psychoactive compounds such as nicotine, caffeine, and cocaine. In North America, spiritual and ceremonial uses of plants are well documented and can be accessed online via the University of Michigan's Native American Ethnobotany Database. The objective of the study was to compare Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analyses of ritual, ceremonial and spiritual plants in Moerman's ethnobotanical database and to identify genera that may be good candidates for the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The database was queried with the following format "Family Name AND Ceremonial OR Spiritual" for 263 North American botanical families. Spiritual and ceremonial flora consisted of 86 families with 517 species belonging to 292 genera. Spiritual taxa were then grouped further into ceremonial medicines and items categories. Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and IDM analysis were performed to identify over and under-utilized families. The 4 statistical approaches were in good agreement when identifying under-utilized families but large families (>393 species) were underemphasized by Binomial, Bayesian and IDM approaches for over-utilization. Residual, Binomial, and IDM analysis identified similar families as over-utilized in the medium (92-392 species) and small (<92 species) classes. The families Apiaceae, Asteraceae, Ericacea, Pinaceae and Salicaceae were identified as significantly over-utilized as ceremonial medicines in medium and large sized families. Analysis of genera within the Apiaceae and Asteraceae suggest that the genus Ligusticum and Artemisia are good candidates for facilitating the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The 4 statistical approaches were not consistent in the selection of over-utilization of flora. Residual analysis revealed overall trends that were supported by Binomial analysis when separated into small, medium and large families. The Bayesian, Binomial and IDM approaches identified different genera as potentially important. Species belonging to the genus Artemisia and Ligusticum were most consistently identified and may be valuable in future studies of the ethnopharmacology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sampling--how big a sample?

PubMed

Aitken, C G

1999-07-01

It is thought that, in a consignment of discrete units, a certain proportion of the units contain illegal material. A sample of the consignment is to be inspected. Various methods for the determination of the sample size are compared. The consignment will be considered as a random sample from some super-population of units, a certain proportion of which contain drugs. For large consignments, a probability distribution, known as the beta distribution, for the proportion of the consignment which contains illegal material is obtained. This distribution is based on prior beliefs about the proportion. Under certain specific conditions the beta distribution gives the same numerical results as an approach based on the binomial distribution. The binomial distribution provides a probability for the number of units in a sample which contain illegal material, conditional on knowing the proportion of the consignment which contains illegal material. This is in contrast to the beta distribution which provides probabilities for the proportion of a consignment which contains illegal material, conditional on knowing the number of units in the sample which contain illegal material. The interpretation when the beta distribution is used is much more intuitively satisfactory. It is also much more flexible in its ability to cater for prior beliefs which may vary given the different circumstances of different crimes. For small consignments, a distribution, known as the beta-binomial distribution, for the number of units in the consignment which are found to contain illegal material, is obtained, based on prior beliefs about the number of units in the consignment which are thought to contain illegal material. As with the beta and binomial distributions for large samples, it is shown that, in certain specific conditions, the beta-binomial and hypergeometric distributions give the same numerical results. However, the beta-binomial distribution, as with the beta distribution, has a more intuitively satisfactory interpretation and greater flexibility. The beta and the beta-binomial distributions provide methods for the determination of the minimum sample size to be taken from a consignment in order to satisfy a certain criterion. The criterion requires the specification of a proportion and a probability.

A Microcomputer-Based Network Optimization Package.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

from either cases a or c as Truncated-Newton directions. It can be shown [Ref. 27] that the TNCG algorithm is globally convergent and capable of...nonzero values of LGB indicate bounds at which arcs are fixed or reversed. Fixed arcs have negative T ( ) while free arcs have positive T ( ) values...Solution of Generalized Network Problems," Working Paper, Department of Finance and Business Economics , School of Business , University of Southern

Development and evaluation of a truncated recombinant NS3 antigen-based indirect ELISA for detection of pestivirus antibodies in sheep and goats.

PubMed

Kalaiyarasu, Semmannan; Mishra, Niranjan; Rajukumar, Katherukamem; Nema, Ram Kumar; Behera, Sthita Pragnya

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop an indirect ELISA using the helicase domain of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) NS3 protein instead of full-length NS3 protein for detection of BVDV and BDV antibodies in sheep and goats and its validation by comparing its sensitivity and specificity with virus neutralization test (VNT) as the reference test. The purified 50 kDa recombinant NS3 protein was used as the coating antigen in the ELISA. The optimal concentration of antigen was 320 ng/well at a serum dilution of 1:20 and the optimal positive cut-off optical density value was 0.40 based on test results of 418 VNT negative sheep and goat sera samples. When 569 serum samples from sheep (463) and goats (106) were tested, the ELISA showed a sensitivity of 91.71% and specificity of 94.59% with BVDV VNT. A good correlation (93.67%) was observed between the two tests. It showed a sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 86.6% with VNT in detecting BDV antibody positive or negative samples. This study demonstrates the efficacy of truncated recombinant NS3 antigen based ELISA for seroepidemiological study of pestivirus infection in sheep and goats.

Detection of a premature stop codon in the surface gene of hepatitis B virus from an HBsAg and antiHBc negative blood donor.

PubMed

Datta, Sibnarayan; Banerjee, Arup; Chandra, Partha K; Chakraborty, Subhasis; Basu, Subir Kumar; Chakravarty, Runu

2007-11-01

In blood donors, HBV infection is detected by the presence of serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). However, some mutations in the surface gene region may result in altered or truncated HBsAg that can escape from immunoassay-based diagnosis. Such diagnostic escape mutants pose a potential risk for blood transfusion services. In the present study, we report a blood donor seronegative for HBsAg and antiHBc, but positive for antiHBs who was HBV DNA positive by PCR. Sequencing of the HBsAg gene revealed presence of a point mutation (T-A) at 207th nucleotide of the HBsAg ORF, which resulted in a premature stop codon at position 69. This results in a truncated HBsAg gene lacking the entire 'a' determinant region. However, follow-up of the donor after 2 years revealed clearance of HBV DNA from the serum. The case illustrates an unusual mutation, which causes HBsAg negativity. The finding emphasizes the importance of molecular assays in reducing the possibility of HBV transmission through blood transfusion. However, developing more sensitive serological assays, capable of detecting HBV mutants, is an alternative to expensive and complex amplification-based assays for developing countries.

Detection of Clostridium difficile infection clusters, using the temporal scan statistic, in a community hospital in southern Ontario, Canada, 2006-2011.

PubMed

Faires, Meredith C; Pearl, David L; Ciccotelli, William A; Berke, Olaf; Reid-Smith, Richard J; Weese, J Scott

2014-05-12

In hospitals, Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) surveillance relies on unvalidated guidelines or threshold criteria to identify outbreaks. This can result in false-positive and -negative cluster alarms. The application of statistical methods to identify and understand CDI clusters may be a useful alternative or complement to standard surveillance techniques. The objectives of this study were to investigate the utility of the temporal scan statistic for detecting CDI clusters and determine if there are significant differences in the rate of CDI cases by month, season, and year in a community hospital. Bacteriology reports of patients identified with a CDI from August 2006 to February 2011 were collected. For patients detected with CDI from March 2010 to February 2011, stool specimens were obtained. Clostridium difficile isolates were characterized by ribotyping and investigated for the presence of toxin genes by PCR. CDI clusters were investigated using a retrospective temporal scan test statistic. Statistically significant clusters were compared to known CDI outbreaks within the hospital. A negative binomial regression model was used to identify associations between year, season, month and the rate of CDI cases. Overall, 86 CDI cases were identified. Eighteen specimens were analyzed and nine ribotypes were classified with ribotype 027 (n = 6) the most prevalent. The temporal scan statistic identified significant CDI clusters at the hospital (n = 5), service (n = 6), and ward (n = 4) levels (P ≤ 0.05). Three clusters were concordant with the one C. difficile outbreak identified by hospital personnel. Two clusters were identified as potential outbreaks. The negative binomial model indicated years 2007-2010 (P ≤ 0.05) had decreased CDI rates compared to 2006 and spring had an increased CDI rate compared to the fall (P = 0.023). Application of the temporal scan statistic identified several clusters, including potential outbreaks not detected by hospital personnel. The identification of time periods with decreased or increased CDI rates may have been a result of specific hospital events. Understanding the clustering of CDIs can aid in the interpretation of surveillance data and lead to the development of better early detection systems.

Selecting Tools to Model Integer and Binomial Multiplication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pratt, Sarah Smitherman; Eddy, Colleen M.

2017-01-01

Mathematics teachers frequently provide concrete manipulatives to students during instruction; however, the rationale for using certain manipulatives in conjunction with concepts may not be explored. This article focuses on area models that are currently used in classrooms to provide concrete examples of integer and binomial multiplication. The…

Enumerative and binomial sampling plans for citrus mealybug (Homoptera: pseudococcidae) in citrus groves.

PubMed

Martínez-Ferrer, María Teresa; Ripollés, José Luís; Garcia-Marí, Ferran

2006-06-01

The spatial distribution of the citrus mealybug, Planococcus citri (Risso) (Homoptera: Pseudococcidae), was studied in citrus groves in northeastern Spain. Constant precision sampling plans were designed for all developmental stages of citrus mealybug under the fruit calyx, for late stages on fruit, and for females on trunks and main branches; more than 66, 286, and 101 data sets, respectively, were collected from nine commercial fields during 1992-1998. Dispersion parameters were determined using Taylor's power law, giving aggregated spatial patterns for citrus mealybug populations in three locations of the tree sampled. A significant relationship between the number of insects per organ and the percentage of occupied organs was established using either Wilson and Room's binomial model or Kono and Sugino's empirical formula. Constant precision (E = 0.25) sampling plans (i.e., enumerative plans) for estimating mean densities were developed using Green's equation and the two binomial models. For making management decisions, enumerative counts may be less labor-intensive than binomial sampling. Therefore, we recommend enumerative sampling plans for the use in an integrated pest management program in citrus. Required sample sizes for the range of population densities near current management thresholds, in the three plant locations calyx, fruit, and trunk were 50, 110-330, and 30, respectively. Binomial sampling, especially the empirical model, required a higher sample size to achieve equivalent levels of precision.

Patterns of medicinal plant use: an examination of the Ecuadorian Shuar medicinal flora using contingency table and binomial analyses.

PubMed

Bennett, Bradley C; Husby, Chad E

2008-03-28

Botanical pharmacopoeias are non-random subsets of floras, with some taxonomic groups over- or under-represented. Moerman [Moerman, D.E., 1979. Symbols and selectivity: a statistical analysis of Native American medical ethnobotany, Journal of Ethnopharmacology 1, 111-119] introduced linear regression/residual analysis to examine these patterns. However, regression, the commonly-employed analysis, suffers from several statistical flaws. We use contingency table and binomial analyses to examine patterns of Shuar medicinal plant use (from Amazonian Ecuador). We first analyzed the Shuar data using Moerman's approach, modified to better meet requirements of linear regression analysis. Second, we assessed the exact randomization contingency table test for goodness of fit. Third, we developed a binomial model to test for non-random selection of plants in individual families. Modified regression models (which accommodated assumptions of linear regression) reduced R(2) to from 0.59 to 0.38, but did not eliminate all problems associated with regression analyses. Contingency table analyses revealed that the entire flora departs from the null model of equal proportions of medicinal plants in all families. In the binomial analysis, only 10 angiosperm families (of 115) differed significantly from the null model. These 10 families are largely responsible for patterns seen at higher taxonomic levels. Contingency table and binomial analyses offer an easy and statistically valid alternative to the regression approach.

Estimating the Parameters of the Beta-Binomial Distribution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Rand R.

1979-01-01

For some situations the beta-binomial distribution might be used to describe the marginal distribution of test scores for a particular population of examinees. Several different methods of approximating the maximum likelihood estimate were investigated, and it was found that the Newton-Raphson method should be used when it yields admissable…

Multilevel Models for Binary Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powers, Daniel A.

2012-01-01

The methods and models for categorical data analysis cover considerable ground, ranging from regression-type models for binary and binomial data, count data, to ordered and unordered polytomous variables, as well as regression models that mix qualitative and continuous data. This article focuses on methods for binary or binomial data, which are…

The gap between suicide characteristics in the print media and in the population.

PubMed

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Till, Benedikt; Herberth, Arno; Voracek, Martin; Kapusta, Nestor D; Etzersdorfer, Elmar; Strauss, Markus; Sonneck, Gernot

2009-08-01

Programmes to educate media professionals about suicide are increasingly established, but information about which suicide cases are most likely to be reported in the mass media is sparse. We applied binomial tests to compare frequencies of social characteristics of all domestic suicides in the 13 largest Austrian print media in 2005 with frequencies of suicide characteristics in the population. Additionally, each reported suicide case was linked to its respective entry in the suicide database. We performed a logistic regression analysis, with presence of an article as outcome, and sex of the suicide case, age, religious affiliation, family status, conduction of an autopsy and location of the suicide as explaining variables. Time of the year and federal state where the suicide happened was controlled for. Binomial tests showed that suicides involving murder or murder attempt were over-represented in the media. Reporting on mental disorders was under-represented. In the regression analysis, the likelihood of a report was negatively associated with the age of suicide cases. Foreign citizenship was a further predictor of a suicide report. The methods of drowning, jumping, shooting and rare methods were more likely to be reported than hanging, which is the most frequent suicide method in Austria. Suicide characteristics in the media are not representative of the population. The identified discrepancies provide a basis for tailor-made education of mass media professionals.

Possibility and Challenges of Conversion of Current Virus Species Names to Linnaean Binomials

PubMed Central

Postler, Thomas S.; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.; Basler, Christopher F.; Bavari, Sbina; Benkő, Mária; Blasdell, Kim R.; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J.; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H.; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Rémi; Clegg, Christopher S.; Collins, Peter L.; Juan Carlos, De La Torre; Derisi, Joseph L.; Dietzgen, Ralf G.; Dolnik, Olga; Dürrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M.; Easton, Andrew J.; Emonet, Sébastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A. M.; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balázs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiāng, Dàohóng; Kobinger, Gary; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew M.; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A.; Leroy, Eric M.; Lukashevich, Igor S.; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady R.; Netesov, Sergey V.; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L.; Payne, Susan L.; PaWeska, Janusz T.; Peters, Clarence J.; Radoshitzky, Sheli R.; Rima, Bertus K.; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfaçon, Hélène; Salvato, Maria S.; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J.; Stenglein, Mark D.; Stone, David M.; Takada, Ayato; Tesh, Robert B.; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, Noël; Towner, Jonathan S.; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Viktor E.; Wahl-Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J.; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield, Anna E.; Zerbini, F. Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H.

2017-01-01

Abstract Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment. PMID:27798405

Void probability as a function of the void's shape and scale-invariant models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elizalde, E.; Gaztanaga, E.

1991-01-01

The dependence of counts in cells on the shape of the cell for the large scale galaxy distribution is studied. A very concrete prediction can be done concerning the void distribution for scale invariant models. The prediction is tested on a sample of the CfA catalog, and good agreement is found. It is observed that the probability of a cell to be occupied is bigger for some elongated cells. A phenomenological scale invariant model for the observed distribution of the counts in cells, an extension of the negative binomial distribution, is presented in order to illustrate how this dependence can be quantitatively determined. An original, intuitive derivation of this model is presented.

Analysis of overdispersed count data by mixtures of Poisson variables and Poisson processes.

PubMed

Hougaard, P; Lee, M L; Whitmore, G A

1997-12-01

Count data often show overdispersion compared to the Poisson distribution. Overdispersion is typically modeled by a random effect for the mean, based on the gamma distribution, leading to the negative binomial distribution for the count. This paper considers a larger family of mixture distributions, including the inverse Gaussian mixture distribution. It is demonstrated that it gives a significantly better fit for a data set on the frequency of epileptic seizures. The same approach can be used to generate counting processes from Poisson processes, where the rate or the time is random. A random rate corresponds to variation between patients, whereas a random time corresponds to variation within patients.

The coverage of a random sample from a biological community.

PubMed

Engen, S

1975-03-01

A taxonomic group will frequently have a large number of species with small abundances. When a sample is drawn at random from this group, one is therefore faced with the problem that a large proportion of the species will not be discovered. A general definition of quantitative measures of "sample coverage" is proposed, and the problem of statistical inference is considered for two special cases, (1) the actual total relative abundance of those species that are represented in the sample, and (2) their relative contribution to the information index of diversity. The analysis is based on a extended version of the negative binomial species frequency model. The results are tabulated.

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Observation weights unlock bulk RNA-seq tools for zero inflation and single-cell applications.

PubMed

Van den Berge, Koen; Perraudeau, Fanny; Soneson, Charlotte; Love, Michael I; Risso, Davide; Vert, Jean-Philippe; Robinson, Mark D; Dudoit, Sandrine; Clement, Lieven

2018-02-26

Dropout events in single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) cause many transcripts to go undetected and induce an excess of zero read counts, leading to power issues in differential expression (DE) analysis. This has triggered the development of bespoke scRNA-seq DE methods to cope with zero inflation. Recent evaluations, however, have shown that dedicated scRNA-seq tools provide no advantage compared to traditional bulk RNA-seq tools. We introduce a weighting strategy, based on a zero-inflated negative binomial model, that identifies excess zero counts and generates gene- and cell-specific weights to unlock bulk RNA-seq DE pipelines for zero-inflated data, boosting performance for scRNA-seq.

Emotional Support, Negative Interaction and DSM IV Lifetime Disorders among Older African Americans: Findings from the National Survey of American Life (NSAL)

PubMed Central

Lincoln, Karen D.; Taylor, Robert Joseph; Bullard, Kai McKeever; Chatters, Linda M.; Himle, Joseph A.; Woodward, Amanda Toler; Jackson, James S.

2010-01-01

Objectives Both emotional support and negative interaction with family members have been linked to mental health. However, few studies have examined the associations between emotional support and negative interaction and psychiatric disorders in late life. This study investigated the relationship between emotional support and negative interaction on lifetime prevalence of mood and anxiety disorders among older African Americans. Design The analyses utilized the National Survey of American Life. Methods Logistic regression and negative binomial regression analyses were used to examine the effect of emotional support and negative interaction with family members on the prevalence of lifetime DSM-IV mood and anxiety disorders. Participants Data from 786 African Americans aged 55 years and older were used. Measurement The DSM-IV World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI) was used to assess mental disorders. Three dependent variables were investigated: the prevalence of lifetime mood disorders, the prevalence of lifetime anxiety disorders, and the total number of lifetime mood and anxiety disorders. Results Multivariate analysis found that emotional support was not associated with any of the three dependent variables. Negative interaction was significantly and positively associated with the odds of having a lifetime mood disorder, a lifetime anxiety disorder and the number of lifetime mood and anxiety disorders. Conclusions This is the first study to investigate the relationship between emotional support, negative interaction with family members and psychiatric disorders among older African Americans. Negative interaction was a risk factor for mood and anxiety disorders among older African Americans, whereas emotional support was not significant. PMID:20157904

[Construction and transfection of eucaryotic expression recombinant vector containing truncated region of UL83 gene of human cytomegalovirus and it's sheltered effect as DNA vaccine].

PubMed

Gao, Rong-Bao; Li, Yan-Qiu; Wang, Ming-Li

2006-06-01

To construct eucaryotic expression recombinant vector containing vivo truncated region of UL83 gene of human cytomegalovirus, realize its steady expression in Hep-2 cell, and study sheltered effect of the eucaryotic expression recombinant vector as DNA vaccine. A vivo truncated UL83 gene fragment encoding for truncated HCMV pp65 was obtained by PCR from human cytomegalovirus AD169 stock genome. By gene recombinant ways, the truncated UL83 gene fragment was cloned into eucaryotic expression vector pEGFP-C1 with reported gene coding GFP to construct recombinant vector pEGFP-C1-UL83. The recombinant vector pEGFP-C1-UL83 was tested by different methods including PCR, restriction digestion and gene sequencing. Test results showed the recombinant vector was constructed successfully. After pEGFP-C1-UL83 was transfected into Hep-2 cell by lipofectin mediation, expression of GFP and truncated pp65 fusion protein in Hep-2 cell was observed at different time points by fluorescence microscope. Results showed that quantity of fusion protein expression was the highest at 36h point. Then, Hep-2 cell was cultured selectively by RPMI-1640 containing G418 (200 microg/mL) to obtain a new cell stock of expressing truncated UL83 Gene fragment steadily. RT-PCR and Western blot results showed the truncated fragment of UL83 gene could be expressed steadily in Hep-2 cell. The result showed a new cell stock of expressing Tpp65 was established. This cell stock could be useful in some HCMV research fields, for example, it could be a tool in study of pp65 and HCMV infection, and it could provide a platform for the research into the therapy of HCMV infection. Immune sheltered effect of pEGFP-C1-UL83 as DNA vaccine was studied in vivo of HCMV congenital infection mouse model. The mouse model was immunized solely by pEGFP-C1-UL83, and was immunized jointly by pEGFP-C1-UL83 and its expression product. When the mouse was pregnant and brought to bed, differential antibody of anti-HCMV pp65 was tested by indirect ELISA in mother mouse, the infectious virus was separated with the method of virus separation, and pp65 antigen was checked up by indirect immunofluorescence staining in fetal mouse. Results showed differential antibody of anti-HCMV pp65 was produced in mouse model. Tilter of the antibody was from 1:2.51 to 1:50.79. Results of virus separation and pp65 checkup of fetal mouse brain tissue were negative. So the conclusion can be reached that pEGFP-C1-UL83 as DNA vaccine in vivo has sheltered effect which can prevent HCMV vertical transmission from mother mouse to her fetus.

Binomial Coefficients Modulo a Prime--A Visualization Approach to Undergraduate Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bardzell, Michael; Poimenidou, Eirini

2011-01-01

In this article we present, as a case study, results of undergraduate research involving binomial coefficients modulo a prime "p." We will discuss how undergraduates were involved in the project, even with a minimal mathematical background beforehand. There are two main avenues of exploration described to discover these binomial…

Using the β-binomial distribution to characterize forest health

Treesearch

S.J. Zarnoch; R.L. Anderson; R.M. Sheffield

1995-01-01

The β-binomial distribution is suggested as a model for describing and analyzing the dichotomous data obtained from programs monitoring the health of forests in the United States. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is given as well as asymptotic likelihood ratio tests. The procedure is illustrated with data on dogwood anthracnose infection (caused...

Integer Solutions of Binomial Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilbertson, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

A good formula is like a good story, rich in description, powerful in communication, and eye-opening to readers. The formula presented in this article for determining the coefficients of the binomial expansion of (x + y)n is one such "good read." The beauty of this formula is in its simplicity--both describing a quantitative situation…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Discrimination of numerical proportions: A comparison of binomial and Gaussian models.

PubMed

Raidvee, Aire; Lember, Jüri; Allik, Jüri

2017-01-01

Observers discriminated the numerical proportion of two sets of elements (N = 9, 13, 33, and 65) that differed either by color or orientation. According to the standard Thurstonian approach, the accuracy of proportion discrimination is determined by irreducible noise in the nervous system that stochastically transforms the number of presented visual elements onto a continuum of psychological states representing numerosity. As an alternative to this customary approach, we propose a Thurstonian-binomial model, which assumes discrete perceptual states, each of which is associated with a certain visual element. It is shown that the probability β with which each visual element can be noticed and registered by the perceptual system can explain data of numerical proportion discrimination at least as well as the continuous Thurstonian-Gaussian model, and better, if the greater parsimony of the Thurstonian-binomial model is taken into account using AIC model selection. We conclude that Gaussian and binomial models represent two different fundamental principles-internal noise vs. using only a fraction of available information-which are both plausible descriptions of visual perception.

Use of expression constructs to dissect the functional domains of the CHS/beige protein: identification of multiple phenotypes.

PubMed

Ward, Diane McVey; Shiflett, Shelly L; Huynh, Dinh; Vaughn, Michael B; Prestwich, Glenn; Kaplan, Jerry

2003-06-01

The Chediak-Higashi Syndrome (CHS) and the orthologous murine disorder beige are characterized at the cellular level by the presence of giant lysosomes. The CHS1/Beige protein is a 3787 amino acid protein of unknown function. To determine functional domains of the CHS1/Beige protein, we generated truncated constructs of the gene/protein. These truncated proteins were transiently expressed in Cos-7 or HeLa cells and their effect on membrane trafficking was examined. Beige is apparently a cytosolic protein, as are most transiently expressed truncated Beige constructs. Expression of the Beige construct FM (amino acids 1-2037) in wild-type cells led to enlarged lysosomes. Similarly, expression of a 5.5-kb region (amino acids 2035-3787) of the carboxyl terminal of Beige (22B) also resulted in enlarged lysosomes. Expression of FM solely affected lysosome size, whereas expression of 22B led to alterations in lysosome size, changes in the Golgi and eventually cell death. The two constructs could be used to further dissect phenotypes resulting from loss of the Beige protein. CHS or beigej fibroblasts show an absence of nuclear staining using a monoclonal antibody directed against phosphatidylinositol 4,5 bisphosphate [PtdIns(4,5) P2]. Transformation of beige j fibroblasts with a YAC containing the full-length Beige gene resulted in the normalization of lysosome size and nuclear PtdIns(4,5)P2 staining. Expression of the carboxyl dominant negative construct 22B led to loss of nuclear PtdIns(4,5)P2 staining. Expression of the FM dominant negative clone did not alter nuclear PtdIns(4,5) P2 localization. These results suggest that the Beige protein interacts with at least two different partners and that the Beige protein affects cellular events, such as nuclear PtdIns(4,5)P2 localization, in addition to lysosome size.

Identification of a Novel C-Terminal Truncated WT1 Isoform with Antagonistic Effects against Major WT1 Isoforms

PubMed Central

Tatsumi, Naoya; Hojo, Nozomi; Sakamoto, Hiroyuki; Inaba, Rena; Moriguchi, Nahoko; Matsuno, Keiko; Fukuda, Mari; Matsumura, Akihide; Hayashi, Seiji; Morimoto, Soyoko; Nakata, Jun; Fujiki, Fumihiro; Nishida, Sumiyuki; Nakajima, Hiroko; Tsuboi, Akihiro; Oka, Yoshihiro; Hosen, Naoki; Sugiyama, Haruo; Oji, Yusuke

2015-01-01

The Wilms’ tumor gene WT1 consists of 10 exons and encodes a zinc finger transcription factor. There are four major WT1 isoforms resulting from alternative splicing at two sites, exon 5 (17AA) and exon 9 (KTS). All major WT1 isoforms are overexpressed in leukemia and solid tumors and play oncogenic roles such as inhibition of apoptosis, and promotion of cell proliferation, migration and invasion. In the present study, a novel alternatively spliced WT1 isoform that had an extended exon 4 (designated as exon 4a) with an additional 153 bp (designated as 4a sequence) at the 3’ end was identified and designated as an Ex4a(+)WT1 isoform. The insertion of exon 4a resulted in the introduction of premature translational stop codons in the reading frame in exon 4a and production of C-terminal truncated WT1 proteins lacking zinc finger DNA-binding domain. Overexpression of the truncated Ex4a(+)WT1 isoform inhibited the major WT1-mediated transcriptional activation of anti-apoptotic Bcl-xL gene promoter and induced mitochondrial damage and apoptosis. Conversely, suppression of the Ex4a(+)WT1 isoform by Ex4a-specific siRNA attenuated apoptosis. These results indicated that the Ex4a(+)WT1 isoform exerted dominant negative effects on anti-apoptotic function of major WT1 isoforms. Ex4a(+)WT1 isoform was endogenously expressed as a minor isoform in myeloid leukemia and solid tumor cells and increased regardless of decrease in major WT1 isoforms during apoptosis, suggesting the dominant negative effects on anti-apoptotic function of major WT1 isoforms. These results indicated that Ex4a(+)WT1 isoform had an important physiological function that regulated oncogenic function of major WT1 isoforms. PMID:26090994

Evaluation of an operational malaria outbreak identification and response system in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

PubMed

Coleman, Marlize; Coleman, Michael; Mabuza, Aaron M; Kok, Gerdalize; Coetzee, Maureen; Durrheim, David N

2008-04-27

To evaluate the performance of a novel malaria outbreak identification system in the epidemic prone rural area of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, for timely identification of malaria outbreaks and guiding integrated public health responses. Using five years of historical notification data, two binomial thresholds were determined for each primary health care facility in the highest malaria risk area of Mpumalanga province. Whenever the thresholds were exceeded at health facility level (tier 1), primary health care staff notified the malaria control programme, which then confirmed adequate stocks of malaria treatment to manage potential increased cases. The cases were followed up at household level to verify the likely source of infection. The binomial thresholds were reviewed at village/town level (tier 2) to determine whether additional response measures were required. In addition, an automated electronic outbreak identification system at town/village level (tier 2) was integrated into the case notification database (tier 3) to ensure that unexpected increases in case notification were not missed.The performance of these binomial outbreak thresholds was evaluated against other currently recommended thresholds using retrospective data. The acceptability of the system at primary health care level was evaluated through structured interviews with health facility staff. Eighty four percent of health facilities reported outbreaks within 24 hours (n = 95), 92% (n = 104) within 48 hours and 100% (n = 113) within 72 hours. Appropriate response to all malaria outbreaks (n = 113, tier 1, n = 46, tier 2) were achieved within 24 hours. The system was positively viewed by all health facility staff. When compared to other epidemiological systems for a specified 12 month outbreak season (June 2003 to July 2004) the binomial exact thresholds produced one false weekly outbreak, the C-sum 12 weekly outbreaks and the mean + 2 SD nine false weekly outbreaks. Exceeding the binomial level 1 threshold triggered an alert four weeks prior to an outbreak, but exceeding the binomial level 2 threshold identified an outbreak as it occurred. The malaria outbreak surveillance system using binomial thresholds achieved its primary goal of identifying outbreaks early facilitating appropriate local public health responses aimed at averting a possible large-scale epidemic in a low, and unstable, malaria transmission setting.

Smisc - A collection of miscellaneous functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landon Sego, PNNL

2015-08-31

A collection of functions for statistical computing and data manipulation. These include routines for rapidly aggregating heterogeneous matrices, manipulating file names, loading R objects, sourcing multiple R files, formatting datetimes, multi-core parallel computing, stream editing, specialized plotting, etc. Smisc-package A collection of miscellaneous functions allMissing Identifies missing rows or columns in a data frame or matrix as.numericSilent Silent wrapper for coercing a vector to numeric comboList Produces all possible combinations of a set of linear model predictors cumMax Computes the maximum of the vector up to the current index cumsumNA Computes the cummulative sum of a vector without propogating NAsmore » d2binom Probability functions for the sum of two independent binomials dataIn A flexible way to import data into R. dbb The Beta-Binomial Distribution df2list Row-wise conversion of a data frame to a list dfplapply Parallelized single row processing of a data frame dframeEquiv Examines the equivalence of two dataframes or matrices dkbinom Probability functions for the sum of k independent binomials factor2character Converts all factor variables in a dataframe to character variables findDepMat Identify linearly dependent rows or columns in a matrix formatDT Converts date or datetime strings into alternate formats getExtension Filename manipulations: remove the extension or path, extract the extension or path getPath Filename manipulations: remove the extension or path, extract the extension or path grabLast Filename manipulations: remove the extension or path, extract the extension or path ifelse1 Non-vectorized version of ifelse integ Simple numerical integration routine interactionPlot Two-way Interaction Plot with Error Bar linearMap Linear mapping of a numerical vector or scalar list2df Convert a list to a data frame loadObject Loads and returns the object(s) in an ".Rdata" file more Display the contents of a file to the R terminal movAvg2 Calculate the moving average using a 2-sided window openDevice Opens a graphics device based on the filename extension p2binom Probability functions for the sum of two independent binomials padZero Pad a vector of numbers with zeros parseJob Parses a collection of elements into (almost) equal sized groups pbb The Beta-Binomial Distribution pcbinom A continuous version of the binomial cdf pkbinom Probability functions for the sum of k independent binomials plapply Simple parallelization of lapply plotFun Plot one or more functions on a single plot PowerData An example of power data pvar Prints the name and value of one or more objects qbb The Beta-Binomial Distribution rbb And numerous others (space limits reporting).« less

Integrated allelic, transcriptional, and phenomic dissection of the cardiac effects of titin truncations in health and disease

PubMed Central

Roberts, Angharad M.; Ware, James S.; Herman, Daniel S.; Schafer, Sebastian; Baksi, John; Bick, Alexander G.; Buchan, Rachel J.; Walsh, Roddy; John, Shibu; Wilkinson, Samuel; Mazzarotto, Francesco; Felkin, Leanne E.; Gong, Sungsam; MacArthur, Jacqueline A.L.; Cunningham, Fiona; Flannick, Jason; Gabriel, Stacey B.; Altshuler, David M.; Macdonald, Peter S.; Heinig, Matthias; Keogh, Anne M.; Hayward, Christopher S.; Banner, Nicholas R.; Pennell, Dudley J.; O’Regan, Declan; San, Tan Ru; de Marvao, Antonio; Dawes, Timothy J. W.; Gulati, Ankur; Birks, Emma J.; Yacoub, Magdi H.; Radke, Michael; Gotthardt, Michael; Wilson, James G.; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Prasad, Sanjay K.; Barton, Paul J.R.; Fatkin, Diane; Hubner, Norbert; Seidman, J. G.; Seidman, Christine E.; Cook, Stuart A.

2015-01-01

The recent discovery of heterozygous human mutations that truncate full-length titin (TTN, an abundant structural, sensory, and signaling filament in muscle) as a common cause of end-stage dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) provides new prospects for improving heart failure management. However, realization of this opportunity has been hindered by the burden of TTN truncating variants (TTNtv) in the general population and uncertainty about their consequences in health or disease. To elucidate the effects of TTNtv, we coupled TTN gene sequencing with cardiac phenotyping in 5,267 individuals across the spectrum of cardiac physiology, and integrated these data with RNA and protein analyses of human heart tissues. We report diversity of TTN isoform expression in the heart, define the relative inclusion of TTN exons in different isoforms, and demonstrate that these data, coupled with TTNtv position, provide a robust strategy to discriminate pathogenic from benign TTNtv. We show that TTNtv is the most common genetic cause for DCM in ambulant patients in the community, identify clinically important manifestations of TTNtv-positive DCM, and define the penetrance and outcomes of TTNtv in the general population. By integrating genetic, transcriptome, and protein analyses we provide evidence for a length-dependent, dominant negative mechanism of disease. These data inform diagnostic criteria and management strategies for TTNtv-positive DCM patients and for TTNtv that are identified as incidental findings. PMID:25589632

I Remember You: Independence and the Binomial Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Douglas W.; Rockhill, Beverly

2006-01-01

We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

Possibility and challenges of conversion of current virus species names to Linnaean binomials

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Postler; Clawson, Anna N.; Amarasinghe, Gaya K.; Basler, Christopher F.; Bavari, Sina; Benko, Maria; Blasdell, Kim R.; Briese, Thomas; Buchmeier, Michael J.; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H.; Chandran, Kartik; Charrel, Remi; Clegg, Christopher S.; Collins, Peter L.; De la Torre, Juan Carlos; DeRisi, Joseph L.; Dietzgen, Ralf G.; Dolnik, Olga; Durrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M.; Easton, Andrew J.; Emonet, Sebastian; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A. M.; Ghedin, Elodie; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Harrach, Balazs; Hewson, Roger; Horie, Masayuki; Jiang, Daohong; Kobinger, Gary P.; Kondo, Hideki; Kropinski, Andrew; Krupovic, Mart; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A.; Leroy, Eric M.; Lukashevich, Igor S.; Maisner, Andrea; Mushegian, Arcady; Netesov, Sergey V.; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L.; Payne, Susan L.; Paweska, Janusz T.; Peters, C.J.; Radoshitzky, Sheli; Rima, Bertus K.; Romanowski, Victor; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Sabanadzovic, Sead; Sanfacon, Helene; Salvato , Maria; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J.; Stenglein, Mark; Stone, D.M.; Takada , Ayato; Tesh, Robert B.; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, N.; Towner, Jonathan S.; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Victor E.; Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J.; Wang, Lin-Fa; Varsani, Arvind; Whitfield , Anna E.; Zerbini, Francisco Murilo; Kuhn, Jens H.

2017-01-01

Botanical, mycological, zoological, and prokaryotic species names follow the Linnaean format, consisting of an italicized Latinized binomen with a capitalized genus name and a lower case species epithet (e.g., Homo sapiens). Virus species names, however, do not follow a uniform format, and, even when binomial, are not Linnaean in style. In this thought exercise, we attempted to convert all currently official names of species included in the virus family Arenaviridae and the virus order Mononegavirales to Linnaean binomials, and to identify and address associated challenges and concerns. Surprisingly, this endeavor was not as complicated or time-consuming as even the authors of this article expected when conceiving the experiment.

Predictors and outcomes of non-adherence in patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis.

PubMed

Tohme, Fadi; Mor, Maria K; Pena-Polanco, Julio; Green, Jamie A; Fine, Michael J; Palevsky, Paul M; Weisbord, Steven D

2017-08-01

Predictors of and outcomes associated with non-adherent behavior among patients on chronic hemodialysis (HD) have been incompletely elucidated. We conducted a post hoc analysis of data from the SMILE trial to identify patient factors associated with non-adherence to dialysis-related treatments and the associations of non-adherence with clinical outcomes. We defined non-adherence as missed HD and abbreviated HD. We used negative binomial regression to model the associations of demographic and clinical factors with measures of non-adherence, and negative binomial and Cox regression to analyze the associations of non-adherence with hospitalizations and mortality, respectively. We followed 286 patients for up to 24 months. Factors independently associated with missing HD included Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday HD schedule [incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.85, p < 0.01], current smoking (IRR 2.22, p < 0.01), higher pain score (IRR 1.04, p < 0.01), lower healthy literacy (IRR 3.01, p < 0.01), lower baseline quality of life (IRR 0.89, p = 0.01), and younger age (IRR 1.35, p < 0.01). Factors independently associated with abbreviating HD included dialysis vintage (IRR 1.07, p < 0.01), higher pain score (IRR 1.02, p < 0.01), current non-smoking (IRR 1.32, p = 0.03), and younger age (IRR 1.22, p < 0.01). Abbreviating HD was independently associated with an increased number of total (IRR 1.70, p < 0.01) and ESRD-related (IRR 1.66, p < 0.01) hospitalizations, while missing HD was independently associated with mortality (HR 2.36, p = 0.04). We identified several previously described and novel factors independently associated with non-adherence to HD-related treatments, and independent associations of non-adherence with hospitalization and mortality. These findings should inform the development and implementation of interventions to improve adherence and reduce health resource utilization.

Inhomogeneity of the density of Parascaris spp. eggs in faeces of individual foals and the use of hypothesis testing for treatment decision making.

PubMed

Wilkes, E J A; Cowling, A; Woodgate, R G; Hughes, K J

2016-10-15

Faecal egg counts (FEC) are used widely for monitoring of parasite infection in animals, treatment decision-making and estimation of anthelmintic efficacy. When a single count or sample mean is used as a point estimate of the expectation of the egg distribution over some time interval, the variability in the egg density is not accounted for. Although variability, including quantifying sources, of egg count data has been described, the spatiotemporal distribution of nematode eggs in faeces is not well understood. We believe that statistical inference about the mean egg count for treatment decision-making has not been used previously. The aim of this study was to examine the density of Parascaris eggs in solution and faeces and to describe the use of hypothesis testing for decision-making. Faeces from two foals with Parascaris burdens were mixed with magnesium sulphate solution and 30 McMaster chambers were examined to determine the egg distribution in a well-mixed solution. To examine the distribution of eggs in faeces from an individual animal, three faecal piles from a foal with a known Parascaris burden were obtained, from which 81 counts were performed. A single faecal sample was also collected daily from 20 foals on three consecutive days and a FEC was performed on three separate portions of each sample. As appropriate, Poisson or negative binomial confidence intervals for the distribution mean were calculated. Parascaris eggs in a well-mixed solution conformed to a homogeneous Poisson process, while the egg density in faeces was not homogeneous, but aggregated. This study provides an extension from homogeneous to inhomogeneous Poisson processes, leading to an understanding of why Poisson and negative binomial distributions correspondingly provide a good fit for egg count data. The application of one-sided hypothesis tests for decision-making is presented. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating influenza and respiratory syncytial virus-associated mortality in Western Kenya using health and demographic surveillance system data, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Emukule, Gideon O; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Chaves, Sandra S; Mott, Joshua A; Tempia, Stefano; Bigogo, Godfrey; Nyawanda, Bryan; Nyaguara, Amek; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; van der Velden, Koos; Paget, John W

2017-01-01

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated mortality has not been well-established in tropical Africa. We used the negative binomial regression method and the rate-difference method (i.e. deaths during low and high influenza/RSV activity months), to estimate excess mortality attributable to influenza and RSV using verbal autopsy data collected through a health and demographic surveillance system in Western Kenya, 2007-2013. Excess mortality rates were calculated for a) all-cause mortality, b) respiratory deaths (including pneumonia), c) HIV-related deaths, and d) pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) related deaths. Using the negative binomial regression method, the mean annual all-cause excess mortality rate associated with influenza and RSV was 14.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0-93.3) and 17.1 (95% CI 0.0-111.5) per 100,000 person-years (PY) respectively; and 10.5 (95% CI 0.0-28.5) and 7.3 (95% CI 0.0-27.3) per 100,000 PY for respiratory deaths, respectively. Highest mortality rates associated with influenza were among ≥50 years, particularly among persons with TB (41.6[95% CI 0.0-122.7]); and with RSV were among <5 years. Using the rate-difference method, the excess mortality rate for influenza and RSV was 44.8 (95% CI 36.8-54.4) and 19.7 (95% CI 14.7-26.5) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for all-cause deaths; and 9.6 (95% CI 6.3-14.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.9-11.0) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for respiratory deaths. Our study shows a substantial excess mortality associated with influenza and RSV in Western Kenya, especially among children <5 years and older persons with TB, supporting recommendations for influenza vaccination and efforts to develop RSV vaccines.

Effects of Cognition, Function, and Behavioral and Psychological Symptoms on Medicare Expenditures and Health Care Utilization for Persons With Dementia.

PubMed

Jutkowitz, Eric; Kane, Robert L; Dowd, Bryan; Gaugler, Joseph E; MacLehose, Richard F; Kuntz, Karen M

2017-06-01

Clinical features of dementia (cognition, function, and behavioral/psychological symptoms [BPSD]) may differentially affect Medicare expenditures/health care utilization. We linked cross-sectional data from the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study to Medicare data to evaluate the association between dementia clinical features among those with dementia and Medicare expenditures/health care utilization (n = 234). Cognition was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Function was evaluated as the number of functional limitations (0-10). BPSD was evaluated as the number of symptoms (0-12). Expenditures were estimated with a generalized linear model (log-link and gamma distribution). Number of hospitalizations, institutional outpatient visits, and physician visits were estimated with a negative binomial regression. Medicare covered skilled nursing days were estimated with a zero-inflated negative binomial model. Cognition and BPSD were not associated with expenditures. Among individuals with less than seven functional limitations, one additional limitation was associated with $123 (95% confidence interval: $19-$227) additional monthly Medicare spending. Better cognition and poorer function were associated with more hospitalizations among those with an MMSE less than three and less than six functional limitations, respectively. BPSD had no effect on hospitalizations. Poorer function and fewer BPSD were associated with more skilled nursing among individuals with one to seven functional limitations and more than four symptoms, respectively. Cognition had no effect on skilled nursing care. No clinical feature was associated with institutional outpatient care. Of individuals with an MMSE less than 15, poorer cognition was associated with fewer physician visits. Among those with more than six functional limitations, poorer function was associated with fewer physician visits. Poorer function, not cognition or BPSD, was associated with higher Medicare expenditures. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Factors associated with dental caries in a group of American Indian children at age 36 months.

PubMed

Warren, John J; Blanchette, Derek; Dawson, Deborah V; Marshall, Teresa A; Phipps, Kathy R; Starr, Delores; Drake, David R

2016-04-01

Early childhood caries (ECC) is rampant among American Indian children, but there has been relatively little study of this problem. This article reports on risk factors for caries for a group of American Indian children at age 36 months as part of a longitudinal study. Pregnant women from a Northern Plains Tribal community were recruited to participate in a longitudinal study of caries and caries risk factors. Standardized dental examinations were completed on children, and questionnaires were completed by mothers at baseline and when children were 4, 8, 12, 16, 22, 28, and 36 months of age. Examinations were surface-specific for dental caries, and the questionnaires collected data on demographic, dietary, and behavioral factors. Nonparametric bivariate tests and logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for caries at 36 months, and negative binomial regression was used to identify factors related to caries severity (dmf counts). Among the 232 children, and caries prevalence for cavitated lesions was 80%, with an additional 15% having only noncavitated lesions. The mean dmfs was 9.6, and of the total dmfs, nearly 62% of affected surfaces were decayed, 31% were missing, and 7% were filled. Logistic regression identified higher added-sugar beverage consumption, younger maternal age at baseline, higher maternal DMFS at baseline, and greater number of people in the household as significant (P < 0.05) risk factors. Negative binomial regression found that only maternal DMFS was associated with child dmf counts. By the age of 36 months, dental caries is nearly universal in this population of American Indian children. Caries risk factors included sugared beverage consumption, greater household size, and maternal factors, but further analyses are needed to better understand caries in this population. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of Breastfeeding Promotion on Early Childhood Caries and Breastfeeding Duration among 5 Year Old Children in Eastern Uganda: A Cluster Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Birungi, Nancy; Fadnes, Lars T; Okullo, Isaac; Kasangaki, Arabat; Nankabirwa, Victoria; Ndeezi, Grace; Tumwine, James K; Tylleskär, Thorkild; Lie, Stein Atle; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug

2015-01-01

Although several studies have shown short term health benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), its long term consequences have not been studied extensively in low-income contexts. This study assessed the impact of an EBF promotion initiative for 6 months on early childhood caries (ECC) and breastfeeding duration in children aged 5 years in Mbale, Eastern Uganda. Participants were recruited from the Ugandan site of the PROMISE- EBF cluster randomised trial (ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00397150). A total of 765 pregnant women from 24 clusters were included in the ratio 1:1 to receive peer counselled promotion of EBF as the intervention or standard of care. At the 5 year follow-up, ECC was recorded under field conditions using the World Health Organization's decayed missing filled tooth (dmft) index. Adjusted negative binomial and linear regression were used in the analysis. Mean breastfeeding duration in the intervention and control groups (n=417) were 21.8 (CI 20.7-22.9) and 21.3(CI 20.7-21.9) months, respectively. The mean dmft was 1.5 (standard deviation [SD] 2.9) and 1.7 (SD 2.9) in the intervention and control groups, respectively. Corresponding prevalence estimates of ECC were 38% and 41%. Negative binomial regression analysis adjusted for cluster effects and loss-to-follow-up by inverse probability weights (IPW) showed an incidence-rate ratio (IRR) of 0.91 (95% CI 0.65-1.2). Comparing the effect of the trial arm on breastfeeding duration showed a difference in months of 0.48 (-0.72 to 1.7). PROMISE EBF trial did not impact on early childhood caries or breastfeeding duration at 5 years of age. This study contributes to the body of evidence that promotion of exclusive breastfeeding does not raise oral health concerns. However, the high burden of caries calls for efforts to improve the oral health condition in this setting. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00397150.

Factors associated with the frequency of monitoring of liver enzymes, renal function and lipid laboratory markers among individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy: a cohort study.

PubMed

Gillis, Jennifer; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Burchell, Ann N; Cooper, Curtis; Klein, Marina B; Loutfy, Mona; Machouf, Nima; Montaner, Julio Sg; Tsoukas, Chris; Hogg, Robert S; Raboud, Janet

2015-10-26

As the average age of the HIV-positive population increases, there is increasing need to monitor patients for the development of comorbidities as well as for drug toxicities. We examined factors associated with the frequency of measurement of liver enzymes, renal function tests, and lipid levels among participants of the Canadian Observational Cohort (CANOC) collaboration which follows people who initiated HIV antiretroviral therapy in 2000 or later. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine the associations of demographic and clinical characteristics with the rates of measurement during follow-up. Generalized estimating equations with a logit link were used to examine factors associated with gaps of 12 months or more between measurements. Electronic laboratory data were available for 3940 of 7718 CANOC participants. The median duration of electronic follow-up was 3.5 years. The median (interquartile) rates of tests per year were 2.76 (1.60, 3.73), 2.55 (1.44, 3.38) and 1.42 (0.50, 2.52) for liver, renal and lipid parameters, respectively. In multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, individuals infected through injection drug use (IDU) were significantly less likely to have any measurements. Among participants with at least one measurement, rates of measurement of liver, renal and lipid tests were significantly lower for younger individuals and Aboriginal Peoples. Hepatitis C co-infected individuals with a history of IDU had lower rates of measurement and were at greater risk of having 12 month gaps between measurements. Hepatitis C co-infected participants infected through IDU were at increased risk of gaps in testing, despite publicly funded health care and increased risk of comorbid conditions. This should be taken into consideration in analyses examining factors associated with outcomes based on laboratory parameters.

Estimating the prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection among rural communities in Western Tanzania: The influence of sampling strategy and statistical approach

PubMed Central

Bakuza, Jared S.; Denwood, Matthew J.; Nkwengulila, Gamba

2017-01-01

Background Schistosoma mansoni is a parasite of major public health importance in developing countries, where it causes a neglected tropical disease known as intestinal schistosomiasis. However, the distribution of the parasite within many endemic regions is currently unknown, which hinders effective control. The purpose of this study was to characterize the prevalence and intensity of infection of S. mansoni in a remote area of western Tanzania. Methodology/Principal findings Stool samples were collected from 192 children and 147 adults residing in Gombe National Park and four nearby villages. Children were actively sampled in local schools, and adults were sampled passively by voluntary presentation at the local health clinics. The two datasets were therefore analysed separately. Faecal worm egg count (FWEC) data were analysed using negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models with explanatory variables of site, sex, and age. The ZINB models indicated that a substantial proportion of the observed zero FWEC reflected a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals, meaning that the estimated true prevalence was much higher than the apparent prevalence as calculated based on the simple proportion of non-zero FWEC. For the passively sampled data from adults, the data were consistent with close to 100% true prevalence of infection. Both the prevalence and intensity of infection differed significantly between sites, but there were no significant associations with sex or age. Conclusions/Significance Overall, our data suggest a more widespread distribution of S. mansoni in this part of Tanzania than was previously thought. The apparent prevalence estimates substantially under-estimated the true prevalence as determined by the ZINB models, and the two types of sampling strategies also resulted in differing conclusions regarding prevalence of infection. We therefore recommend that future surveillance programmes designed to assess risk factors should use active sampling whenever possible, in order to avoid the self-selection bias associated with passive sampling. PMID:28934206

Random parameter models of interstate crash frequencies by severity, number of vehicles involved, collision and location type.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Narayan; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venky N

2013-10-01

A nine-year (1999-2007) continuous panel of crash histories on interstates in Washington State, USA, was used to estimate random parameter negative binomial (RPNB) models for various aggregations of crashes. A total of 21 different models were assessed in terms of four ways to aggregate crashes, by: (a) severity, (b) number of vehicles involved, (c) crash type, and by (d) location characteristics. The models within these aggregations include specifications for all severities (property damage only, possible injury, evident injury, disabling injury, and fatality), number of vehicles involved (one-vehicle to five-or-more-vehicle), crash type (sideswipe, same direction, overturn, head-on, fixed object, rear-end, and other), and location types (urban interchange, rural interchange, urban non-interchange, rural non-interchange). A total of 1153 directional road segments comprising of the seven Washington State interstates were analyzed, yielding statistical models of crash frequency based on 10,377 observations. These results suggest that in general there was a significant improvement in log-likelihood when using RPNB compared to a fixed parameter negative binomial baseline model. Heterogeneity effects are most noticeable for lighting type, road curvature, and traffic volume (ADT). Median lighting or right-side lighting are linked to increased crash frequencies in many models for more than half of the road segments compared to both-sides lighting. Both-sides lighting thereby appears to generally lead to a safety improvement. Traffic volume has a random parameter but the effect is always toward increasing crash frequencies as expected. However that the effect is random shows that the effect of traffic volume on crash frequency is complex and varies by road segment. The number of lanes has a random parameter effect only in the interchange type models. The results show that road segment-specific insights into crash frequency occurrence can lead to improved design policy and project prioritization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cocoa Farmers’ Compliance with Safety Precautions in Spraying Agrochemicals and Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) in Cameroon

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The inability of farmers to comply with essential precautions in the course of spraying agrochemicals remains a policy dilemma, especially in developing countries. The objectives of this paper were to assess compliance of cocoa farmers with agrochemical safety measures, analyse the factors explaining involvement of cocoa farmers in the practice of reusing agrochemical containers and wearing of personal protective equipment (PPE). Data were collected with structured questionnaires from 667 cocoa farmers from the Centre and South West regions in Cameroon. Data analyses were carried out with Probit regression and Negative Binomial regression models. The results showed that average cocoa farm sizes were 3.55 ha and 2.82 ha in South West and Centre regions, respectively, and 89.80% and 42.64% complied with manufacturers’ instructions in the use of insecticides. Eating or drinking while spraying insecticides and fungicides was reported by 4.20% and 5.10% of all farmers in the two regions, respectively. However, 37.78% and 57.57% of all farmers wore hand gloves and safety boots while spraying insecticides in the South West and Centre regions of Cameroon, respectively. In addition, 7.80% of all the farmers would wash agrochemical containers and use them at home, while 42.43% would wash and use them on their farms. Probit regression results showed that probability of reusing agrochemical containers was significantly influenced (p < 0.05) by region of residence of cocoa farmers, gender, possession of formal education and farming as primary occupation. The Negative Binomial regression results showed that the log of number PPE worn was significantly influenced (p < 0.10) by region, marital status, attainment of formal education, good health, awareness of manufacturers’ instructions, land area and contact index. It was among others concluded that efforts to train farmers on the need to be familiar with manufacturers’ instructions and use PPE would enhance their safety in the course of spraying agrochemicals. PMID:29438333

Cocoa Farmers' Compliance with Safety Precautions in Spraying Agrochemicals and Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) in Cameroon.

PubMed

Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel

2018-02-13

The inability of farmers to comply with essential precautions in the course of spraying agrochemicals remains a policy dilemma, especially in developing countries. The objectives of this paper were to assess compliance of cocoa farmers with agrochemical safety measures, analyse the factors explaining involvement of cocoa farmers in the practice of reusing agrochemical containers and wearing of personal protective equipment (PPE). Data were collected with structured questionnaires from 667 cocoa farmers from the Centre and South West regions in Cameroon. Data analyses were carried out with Probit regression and Negative Binomial regression models. The results showed that average cocoa farm sizes were 3.55 ha and 2.82 ha in South West and Centre regions, respectively, and 89.80% and 42.64% complied with manufacturers' instructions in the use of insecticides. Eating or drinking while spraying insecticides and fungicides was reported by 4.20% and 5.10% of all farmers in the two regions, respectively. However, 37.78% and 57.57% of all farmers wore hand gloves and safety boots while spraying insecticides in the South West and Centre regions of Cameroon, respectively. In addition, 7.80% of all the farmers would wash agrochemical containers and use them at home, while 42.43% would wash and use them on their farms. Probit regression results showed that probability of reusing agrochemical containers was significantly influenced ( p < 0.05) by region of residence of cocoa farmers, gender, possession of formal education and farming as primary occupation. The Negative Binomial regression results showed that the log of number PPE worn was significantly influenced ( p < 0.10) by region, marital status, attainment of formal education, good health, awareness of manufacturers' instructions, land area and contact index. It was among others concluded that efforts to train farmers on the need to be familiar with manufacturers' instructions and use PPE would enhance their safety in the course of spraying agrochemicals.

Analyzing hospitalization data: potential limitations of Poisson regression.

PubMed

Weaver, Colin G; Ravani, Pietro; Oliver, Matthew J; Austin, Peter C; Quinn, Robert R

2015-08-01

Poisson regression is commonly used to analyze hospitalization data when outcomes are expressed as counts (e.g. number of days in hospital). However, data often violate the assumptions on which Poisson regression is based. More appropriate extensions of this model, while available, are rarely used. We compared hospitalization data between 206 patients treated with hemodialysis (HD) and 107 treated with peritoneal dialysis (PD) using Poisson regression and compared results from standard Poisson regression with those obtained using three other approaches for modeling count data: negative binomial (NB) regression, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression. We examined the appropriateness of each model and compared the results obtained with each approach. During a mean 1.9 years of follow-up, 183 of 313 patients (58%) were never hospitalized (indicating an excess of 'zeros'). The data also displayed overdispersion (variance greater than mean), violating another assumption of the Poisson model. Using four criteria, we determined that the NB and ZINB models performed best. According to these two models, patients treated with HD experienced similar hospitalization rates as those receiving PD {NB rate ratio (RR): 1.04 [bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-2.20]; ZINB summary RR: 1.21 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.60-2.46)}. Poisson and ZIP models fit the data poorly and had much larger point estimates than the NB and ZINB models [Poisson RR: 1.93 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-4.23); ZIP summary RR: 1.84 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-3.84)]. We found substantially different results when modeling hospitalization data, depending on the approach used. Our results argue strongly for a sound model selection process and improved reporting around statistical methods used for modeling count data. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Density of wild prey modulates lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep.

PubMed

Odden, John; Nilsen, Erlend B; Linnell, John D C

2013-01-01

Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore-livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed.

Density of Wild Prey Modulates Lynx Kill Rates on Free-Ranging Domestic Sheep

PubMed Central

Odden, John; Nilsen, Erlend B.; Linnell, John D. C.

2013-01-01

Understanding the factors shaping the dynamics of carnivore–livestock conflicts is vital to facilitate large carnivore conservation in multi-use landscapes. We investigated how the density of their main wild prey, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, modulates individual Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep Ovis aries across a range of sheep and roe deer densities. Lynx kill rates on free-ranging domestic sheep were collected in south-eastern Norway from 1995 to 2011 along a gradient of different livestock and wild prey densities using VHF and GPS telemetry. We used zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models including lynx sex, sheep density and an index of roe deer density as explanatory variables to model observed kill rates on sheep, and ranked the models based on their AICc values. The model including the effects of lynx sex and sheep density in the zero-inflation model and the effect of lynx sex and roe deer density in the negative binomial part received most support. Irrespective of sheep density and sex, we found the lowest sheep kill rates in areas with high densities of roe deer. As roe deer density decreased, males killed sheep at higher rates, and this pattern held for both high and low sheep densities. Similarly, females killed sheep at higher rates in areas with high densities of sheep and low densities of roe deer. However, when sheep densities were low females rarely killed sheep irrespective of roe deer density. Our quantification of depredation rates can be the first step towards establishing fairer compensation systems based on more accurate and area specific estimation of losses. This study demonstrates how we can use ecological theory to predict where losses of sheep will be greatest, and can be used to identify areas where mitigation measures are most likely to be needed. PMID:24278123

Detection of influenza-like illness aberrations by directly monitoring Pearson residuals of fitted negative binomial regression models.

PubMed

Chan, Ta-Chien; Teng, Yung-Chu; Hwang, Jing-Shiang

2015-02-21

Emerging novel influenza outbreaks have increasingly been a threat to the public and a major concern of public health departments. Real-time data in seamless surveillance systems such as health insurance claims data for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) are ready for analysis, making it highly desirable to develop practical techniques to analyze such readymade data for outbreak detection so that the public can receive timely influenza epidemic warnings. This study proposes a simple and effective approach to analyze area-based health insurance claims data including outpatient and emergency department (ED) visits for early detection of any aberrations of ILI. The health insurance claims data during 2004-2009 from a national health insurance research database were used for developing early detection methods. The proposed approach fitted the daily new ILI visits and monitored the Pearson residuals directly for aberration detection. First, negative binomial regression was used for both outpatient and ED visits to adjust for potentially influential factors such as holidays, weekends, seasons, temporal dependence and temperature. Second, if the Pearson residuals exceeded 1.96, aberration signals were issued. The empirical validation of the model was done in 2008 and 2009. In addition, we designed a simulation study to compare the time of outbreak detection, non-detection probability and false alarm rate between the proposed method and modified CUSUM. The model successfully detected the aberrations of 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus in northern, central and southern Taiwan. The proposed approach was more sensitive in identifying aberrations in ED visits than those in outpatient visits. Simulation studies demonstrated that the proposed approach could detect the aberrations earlier, and with lower non-detection probability and mean false alarm rate in detecting aberrations compared to modified CUSUM methods. The proposed simple approach was able to filter out temporal trends, adjust for temperature, and issue warning signals for the first wave of the influenza epidemic in a timely and accurate manner.

Differential Associations of UPPS-P Impulsivity Traits With Alcohol Problems.

PubMed

McCarty, Kayleigh N; Morris, David H; Hatz, Laura E; McCarthy, Denis M

2017-07-01

The UPPS-P model posits that impulsivity comprises five factors: positive urgency, negative urgency, lack of planning, lack of perseverance, and sensation seeking. Negative and positive urgency are the traits most consistently associated with alcohol problems. However, previous work has examined alcohol problems either individually or in the aggregate, rather than examining multiple problem domains simultaneously. Recent work has also questioned the utility of distinguishing between positive and negative urgency, as this distinction did not meaningfully differ in predicting domains of psychopathology. The aims of this study were to address these issues by (a) testing unique associations of UPPS-P with specific domains of alcohol problems and (b) determining the utility of distinguishing between positive and negative urgency as risk factors for specific alcohol problems. Associations between UPPS-P traits and alcohol problem domains were examined in two cross-sectional data sets using negative binomial regression models. In both samples, negative urgency was associated with social/interpersonal, self-perception, risky behaviors, and blackout drinking problems. Positive urgency was associated with academic/occupational and physiological dependence problems. Both urgency traits were associated with impaired control and self-care problems. Associations for other UPPS-P traits did not replicate across samples. Results indicate that negative and positive urgency have differential associations with alcohol problem domains. Results also suggest a distinction between the type of alcohol problems associated with these traits-negative urgency was associated with problems experienced during a drinking episode, whereas positive urgency was associated with alcohol problems that result from longer-term drinking trends.

Influx of multidrug-resistant organisms by country-to-country transfer of patients.

PubMed

Mutters, Nico T; Günther, Frank; Sander, Anja; Mischnik, Alexander; Frank, Uwe

2015-10-28

Multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO) are a worldwide problem. International migration and travel facilitate the spread of MDRO. Therefore the goal of our study was to assess the risk of influx of MDRO from patients transferred to one of Central Europe's largest hospitals from abroad. A mono-centre study was conducted. All patients transferred from other countries were screened; additional data was collected on comorbidities, etc. Presence of carbapenemases of multidrug-resistant Gram-negatives was confirmed by PCR. The association between length of stay, being colonized and/or infected by a MDRO, country of origin, diagnosis and other factors was assessed by binomial regression analyses. From 2012 to 2013, one fifth of all patients were colonized with MDRO (Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus [4.1 %], Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci [2.9 %], multidrug-resistant Gram-negatives [12.8 %] and extensively drug-resistant Gram-negatives [3.4 %]). The Gram-negatives carried a variety of carbapenemases including OXA, VIM, KPC and NDM. The length of stay was significantly prolonged by 77.2 % in patients colonized with a MDRO, compared to those not colonized (p<0.0001). Country-to-Country transfer of patients to European hospitals represents a high risk of introduction of MDRO and infection control specialists should endorse containment and screening measures.

How does the emotive content of televised anti-smoking mass media campaigns influence monthly calls to the NHS Stop Smoking helpline in England?

PubMed

Richardson, Sol; Langley, Tessa; Szatkowski, Lisa; Sims, Michelle; Gilmore, Anna; McNeill, Ann; Lewis, Sarah

2014-12-01

To investigate the effects of different types of televised mass media campaign content on calls to the English NHS Stop Smoking helpline. We used UK government-funded televised tobacco control campaigns from April 2005 to April 2010, categorised as either "positive" (eliciting happiness, satisfaction or hope) or "negative" (eliciting fear, guilt or disgust). We built negative binomial generalised additive models (GAMs) with linear and smooth terms for monthly per capita exposure to each campaign type (expressed as Gross Ratings Points, or GRPs) to determine their effect on calls in the same month. We adjusted for seasonal trends, inflation-adjusted weighted average cigarette prices and other tobacco control policies. We found non-linear associations between exposure to positive and negative emotive campaigns and quitline calls. The rate of calls increased more than 50% as exposure to positive campaigns increased from 0 to 400 GRPs (rate ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.25-2.01). An increase in calls in response to negative emotive campaigns was only apparent after monthly exposure exceeded 400 GRPs. While positive campaigns were most effective at increasing quitline calls, those with negative emotive content were also found to impact on call rates but only at higher levels of exposure. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Hospital support services and the impacts of outsourcing on occupational health and safety.

PubMed

Siganporia, Pearl; Astrakianakis, George; Alamgir, Hasanat; Ostry, Aleck; Nicol, Anne-Marie; Koehoorn, Mieke

2016-10-01

Outsourcing labor is linked to negative impacts on occupational health and safety (OHS). In British Columbia, Canada, provincial health care service providers outsource support services such as cleaners and food service workers (CFSWs) to external contractors. This study investigates the impact of outsourcing on the occupational health safety of hospital CFSWs through a mixed methods approach. Worker's compensation data for hospital CFSWs were analyzed by negative binomial and multiple linear regressions supplemented by iterative thematic analysis of telephone interviews of the same job groups. Non-significant decreases in injury rates and days lost per injury were observed in outsourced CFSWs post outsourcing. Significant decreases (P < 0.05) were observed in average costs per injury for cleaners post outsourcing. Outsourced workers interviewed implied instances of underreporting workplace injuries. This mixed methods study describes the impact of outsourcing on OHS of healthcare workers in British Columbia. Results will be helpful for policy-makers and workplace regulators to assess program effectiveness for outsourced workers.

Hospital support services and the impacts of outsourcing on occupational health and safety

PubMed Central

Alamgir, Hasanat; Ostry, Aleck; Nicol, Anne-Marie; Koehoorn, Mieke

2016-01-01

Background Outsourcing labor is linked to negative impacts on occupational health and safety (OHS). In British Columbia, Canada, provincial health care service providers outsource support services such as cleaners and food service workers (CFSWs) to external contractors. Objectives This study investigates the impact of outsourcing on the occupational health safety of hospital CFSWs through a mixed methods approach. Methods Worker’s compensation data for hospital CFSWs were analyzed by negative binomial and multiple linear regressions supplemented by iterative thematic analysis of telephone interviews of the same job groups. Results Non-significant decreases in injury rates and days lost per injury were observed in outsourced CFSWs post outsourcing. Significant decreases (P < 0.05) were observed in average costs per injury for cleaners post outsourcing. Outsourced workers interviewed implied instances of underreporting workplace injuries. Conclusions This mixed methods study describes the impact of outsourcing on OHS of healthcare workers in British Columbia. Results will be helpful for policy-makers and workplace regulators to assess program effectiveness for outsourced workers. PMID:27696988

Supply-side response to declining heroin purity: fentanyl overdose episode in New Jersey.

PubMed

Hempstead, Katherine; Yildirim, Emel O

2014-06-01

The inelastic price demand observations characteristic of illegal drug markets have led to the conclusion that the burden of a negative supply shock would be completely reflected to consumers. This paper argues that the increasing availability of prescription opioids may threaten heroin sellers' profit margin and force them to find alternative methods to compensate buyers in the event of a supply shock. We investigate the 2006 fentanyl overdose episode in New Jersey and argue that the introduction of non-pharmaceutical fentanyl, its spatial distribution, and the timing of overdose deaths may have been related to trends in heroin purity. Using medical examiner data, as well as data from the Drug Enforcement Administration, Office of Diversion Control on retail sales of prescription opioids in a negative binomial specification, we show that month-to-month fluctuations in heroin purity have a significant effect on fentanyl-related overdoses, particularly in those areas where prescription opioids are highly available. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Single- and multiple-pulse noncoherent detection statistics associated with partially developed speckle.

PubMed

Osche, G R

2000-08-20

Single- and multiple-pulse detection statistics are presented for aperture-averaged direct detection optical receivers operating against partially developed speckle fields. A partially developed speckle field arises when the probability density function of the received intensity does not follow negative exponential statistics. The case of interest here is the target surface that exhibits diffuse as well as specular components in the scattered radiation. An approximate expression is derived for the integrated intensity at the aperture, which leads to single- and multiple-pulse discrete probability density functions for the case of a Poisson signal in Poisson noise with an additive coherent component. In the absence of noise, the single-pulse discrete density function is shown to reduce to a generalized negative binomial distribution. The radar concept of integration loss is discussed in the context of direct detection optical systems where it is shown that, given an appropriate set of system parameters, multiple-pulse processing can be more efficient than single-pulse processing over a finite range of the integration parameter n.

Estrogen receptor status in CHEK2-positive breast cancers: implications for chemoprevention.

PubMed

Cybulski, C; Huzarski, T; Byrski, T; Gronwald, J; Debniak, T; Jakubowska, A; Górski, B; Wokołorczyk, D; Masojć, B; Narod, S A; Lubiński, J

2009-01-01

To investigate the relationship between CHEK2 mutation status and estrogen receptor (ER) status in unselected cases of early-onset breast cancer from Poland, we screened 4441 women diagnosed with breast cancer younger than 51 years and 7217 controls for three inherited mutations in CHEK2 (1100delC, IVS2+1G>A, del5395). ER status was compared between CHEK2-positive and CHEK2-negative breast cancer cases. A truncating mutation in CHEK2 was seen in 140 of 4441 cases and in 70 of 7217 controls [odds ratio (OR) = 3.3; 95% CI = 2.5-4.4; p < 0.0001]. ER status was available for 92 of 140 mutation carriers and for 3001 of 4301 non-carriers with breast cancer. The OR was higher for ER-positive cancers (OR = 3.9; 95% CI = 2.7-5.4; p < 0.0001) than for ER-negative cancers (OR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.3-3.3; p = 0.002). Sixty-six of the 92 breast cancers in carriers of CHEK2 truncating mutations were ER positive compared with 1742 of the 3001 breast cancers in non-carriers (72% vs 58%; p = 0.01). Women with a CHEK2 mutation face a fourfold increase in the risk of ER-positive breast cancer and might be candidates for tamoxifen chemoprevention.

Shape-dependent antibacterial activity of silver nanoparticles on Escherichia coli and Enterococcus faecium bacterium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alshareef, A.; Laird, K.; Cross, R. B. M.

2017-12-01

Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) have been shown to exhibit strong antibacterial activity against both Gram-positive bacteria and Gram-negative bacteria including antibiotic resistant strains. This study aims to compare the bactericidal effect of different shaped AgNPs (spherical and truncated octahedral) against Escherichia coli and Enterococcus faecium. The antimicrobial activity of a range of concentrations (50, 100, 1000 μg/ml) was determined over 24 h using both optical density and viable counts. Truncated octahedral AgNPs (AgNOct) were found to be more active when compared with spherical AgNPs (AgNS). The difference in shape resulted in differences in efficacy which may be due to the higher surface area of AgNOct compared to AgNS, and differences in active facets and surface energies, with AgNPs having a bacteriostatic effect and AgNOct being bactericidal after 4 h. The results suggest that AgNPs can be used as effective growth inhibitors in different microorganisms, rendering them applicable to various medical devices and antimicrobial control systems.

Higher-order stochastic differential equations and the positive Wigner function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drummond, P. D.

2017-12-01

General higher-order stochastic processes that correspond to any diffusion-type tensor of higher than second order are obtained. The relationship of multivariate higher-order stochastic differential equations with tensor decomposition theory and tensor rank is explained. Techniques for generating the requisite complex higher-order noise are proved to exist either using polar coordinates and γ distributions, or from products of Gaussian variates. This method is shown to allow the calculation of the dynamics of the Wigner function, after it is extended to a complex phase space. The results are illustrated physically through dynamical calculations of the positive Wigner distribution for three-mode parametric downconversion, widely used in quantum optics. The approach eliminates paradoxes arising from truncation of the higher derivative terms in Wigner function time evolution. Anomalous results of negative populations and vacuum scattering found in truncated Wigner quantum simulations in quantum optics and Bose-Einstein condensate dynamics are shown not to occur with this type of stochastic theory.

Alcohol expectancies and alcohol outcomes: effects of the use of protective behavioral strategies.

PubMed

Grazioli, Véronique S; Lewis, Melissa A; Garberson, Lisa A; Fossos-Wong, Nicole; Lee, Christine M; Larimer, Mary E

2015-05-01

Alcohol expectancies (AEs) are positively associated with drinking behaviors, whereas the use of protective behavioural strategies (PBS) is negatively related to alcohol outcomes among young adults. PBS have been shown to weaken relationships between some alcohol risk factors and alcohol outcomes. This study aimed to examine longitudinally the moderating effect of PBS on the relationships between AEs and alcohol outcomes among young adults. Participants (N = 188; 61.7% female) were U.S. young adults participating in a larger longitudinal study. Measures of PBS, AEs, alcohol use, and related consequences were used from the baseline and 12-month follow-up assessments. Negative binomial hurdle models found that PBS (total score) significantly moderated the relationship between positive AEs and consequences, such that among high school seniors endorsing higher positive AEs, those using more PBS in high school reported fewer negative consequences 1 year later. PBS (Manner of Drinking) also moderated the relationship between negative AEs and alcohol use, revealing the use of PBS in high school as having a protective function against later drinking among participants with high positive AEs. Last, PBS (Serious Harm Reduction) significantly moderated the associations between positive AEs and alcohol use and between negative AEs and consequences, such that participants with higher AEs and higher PBS use in high school were at greatest risk for drinking and experiencing negative consequences later. Overall, these findings suggest that PBS use may be protective by weakening relationships between positive AEs and alcohol outcomes. Limitations and future directions are discussed.

Raw and Central Moments of Binomial Random Variables via Stirling Numbers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Martin

2013-01-01

We consider here the problem of calculating the moments of binomial random variables. It is shown how formulae for both the raw and the central moments of such random variables may be obtained in a recursive manner utilizing Stirling numbers of the first kind. Suggestions are also provided as to how students might be encouraged to explore this…

Using beta binomials to estimate classification uncertainty for ensemble models.

PubMed

Clark, Robert D; Liang, Wenkel; Lee, Adam C; Lawless, Michael S; Fraczkiewicz, Robert; Waldman, Marvin

2014-01-01

Quantitative structure-activity (QSAR) models have enormous potential for reducing drug discovery and development costs as well as the need for animal testing. Great strides have been made in estimating their overall reliability, but to fully realize that potential, researchers and regulators need to know how confident they can be in individual predictions. Submodels in an ensemble model which have been trained on different subsets of a shared training pool represent multiple samples of the model space, and the degree of agreement among them contains information on the reliability of ensemble predictions. For artificial neural network ensembles (ANNEs) using two different methods for determining ensemble classification - one using vote tallies and the other averaging individual network outputs - we have found that the distribution of predictions across positive vote tallies can be reasonably well-modeled as a beta binomial distribution, as can the distribution of errors. Together, these two distributions can be used to estimate the probability that a given predictive classification will be in error. Large data sets comprised of logP, Ames mutagenicity, and CYP2D6 inhibition data are used to illustrate and validate the method. The distributions of predictions and errors for the training pool accurately predicted the distribution of predictions and errors for large external validation sets, even when the number of positive and negative examples in the training pool were not balanced. Moreover, the likelihood of a given compound being prospectively misclassified as a function of the degree of consensus between networks in the ensemble could in most cases be estimated accurately from the fitted beta binomial distributions for the training pool. Confidence in an individual predictive classification by an ensemble model can be accurately assessed by examining the distributions of predictions and errors as a function of the degree of agreement among the constituent submodels. Further, ensemble uncertainty estimation can often be improved by adjusting the voting or classification threshold based on the parameters of the error distribution. Finally, the profiles for models whose predictive uncertainty estimates are not reliable provide clues to that effect without the need for comparison to an external test set.

Performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data.

PubMed

Yelland, Lisa N; Salter, Amy B; Ryan, Philip

2011-10-15

Modified Poisson regression, which combines a log Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation, is a useful alternative to log binomial regression for estimating relative risks. Previous studies have shown both analytically and by simulation that modified Poisson regression is appropriate for independent prospective data. This method is often applied to clustered prospective data, despite a lack of evidence to support its use in this setting. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data, by using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering. A simulation study is conducted to compare log binomial regression and modified Poisson regression for analyzing clustered data from intervention and observational studies. Both methods generally perform well in terms of bias, type I error, and coverage. Unlike log binomial regression, modified Poisson regression is not prone to convergence problems. The methods are contrasted by using example data sets from 2 large studies. The results presented in this article support the use of modified Poisson regression as an alternative to log binomial regression for analyzing clustered prospective data when clustering is taken into account by using generalized estimating equations.

Truncated Gaussians as tolerance sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cozman, Fabio; Krotkov, Eric

1994-01-01

This work focuses on the use of truncated Gaussian distributions as models for bounded data measurements that are constrained to appear between fixed limits. The authors prove that the truncated Gaussian can be viewed as a maximum entropy distribution for truncated bounded data, when mean and covariance are given. The characteristic function for the truncated Gaussian is presented; from this, algorithms are derived for calculation of mean, variance, summation, application of Bayes rule and filtering with truncated Gaussians. As an example of the power of their methods, a derivation of the disparity constraint (used in computer vision) from their models is described. The authors' approach complements results in Statistics, but their proposal is not only to use the truncated Gaussian as a model for selected data; they propose to model measurements as fundamentally in terms of truncated Gaussians.

A crash-prediction model for multilane roads.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; Guida, Maurizio; Parisi, Alessandra

2007-07-01

Considerable research has been carried out in recent years to establish relationships between crashes and traffic flow, geometric infrastructure characteristics and environmental factors for two-lane rural roads. Crash-prediction models focused on multilane rural roads, however, have rarely been investigated. In addition, most research has paid but little attention to the safety effects of variables such as stopping sight distance and pavement surface characteristics. Moreover, the statistical approaches have generally included Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models, whilst Negative Multinomial regression model has been used to a lesser extent. Finally, as far as the authors are aware, prediction models involving all the above-mentioned factors have still not been developed in Italy for multilane roads, such as motorways. Thus, in this paper crash-prediction models for a four-lane median-divided Italian motorway were set up on the basis of accident data observed during a 5-year monitoring period extending between 1999 and 2003. The Poisson, Negative Binomial and Negative Multinomial regression models, applied separately to tangents and curves, were used to model the frequency of accident occurrence. Model parameters were estimated by the Maximum Likelihood Method, and the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test was applied to detect the significant variables to be included in the model equation. Goodness-of-fit was measured by means of both the explained fraction of total variation and the explained fraction of systematic variation. The Cumulative Residuals Method was also used to test the adequacy of a regression model throughout the range of each variable. The candidate set of explanatory variables was: length (L), curvature (1/R), annual average daily traffic (AADT), sight distance (SD), side friction coefficient (SFC), longitudinal slope (LS) and the presence of a junction (J). Separate prediction models for total crashes and for fatal and injury crashes only were considered. For curves it is shown that significant variables are L, 1/R and AADT, whereas for tangents they are L, AADT and junctions. The effect of rain precipitation was analysed on the basis of hourly rainfall data and assumptions about drying time. It is shown that a wet pavement significantly increases the number of crashes. The models developed in this paper for Italian motorways appear to be useful for many applications such as the detection of critical factors, the estimation of accident reduction due to infrastructure and pavement improvement, and the predictions of accidents counts when comparing different design options. Thus this research may represent a point of reference for engineers in adjusting or designing multilane roads.

Marker vaccine potential of foot-and-mouth disease virus with large deletion in the non-structural proteins 3A and 3B.

PubMed

Biswal, Jitendra K; Subramaniam, Saravanan; Ranjan, Rajeev; Sharma, Gaurav K; Misri, Jyoti; Pattnaik, Bramhadev

2015-11-01

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious, economically important disease of transboundary importance. Regular vaccination with chemically inactivated FMD vaccine is the major means of controlling the disease in endemic countries like India. However, the traditional inactivated vaccines may sometimes contain traces of FMD viral (FMDV) non-structural protein (NSP), therefore, interfering with the NSP-based serological discrimination between infected and vaccinated animals. The availability of marker vaccine for differentiating FMD infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA) would be crucial for the control and subsequent eradication of FMD in India. In this study, we constructed a negative marker FMDV serotype O virus (vaccine strain O IND R2/1975), containing dual deletions of amino acid residues 93-143 and 10-37 in the non-structural proteins 3A and 3B, respectively through reverse genetics approach. The negative marker virus exhibited similar growth kinetics and plaque morphology in cell culture as compared to the wild type virus. In addition, we also developed and evaluated an indirect ELISA (I-ELISA) targeted to the deleted 3AB NSP region (truncated 3AB) which could be used as a companion differential diagnostic assay. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the truncated 3AB I-ELISA were found to be 95.5% and 96%, respectively. The results from this study suggest that the availability negative marker virus and companion diagnostic assay could open a promising new avenue for the application of DIVA compatible marker vaccine for the control of FMD in India. Copyright © 2015 The International Alliance for Biological Standardization. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional analysis of the upstream regulatory region of chicken miR-17-92 cluster.

PubMed

Cheng, Min; Zhang, Wen-jian; Xing, Tian-yu; Yan, Xiao-hong; Li, Yu-mao; Li, Hui; Wang, Ning

2016-08-01

miR-17-92 cluster plays important roles in cell proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis, animal development and tumorigenesis. The transcriptional regulation of miR-17-92 cluster has been extensively studied in mammals, but not in birds. To date, avian miR-17-92 cluster genomic structure has not been fully determined. The promoter location and sequence of miR-17-92 cluster have not been determined, due to the existence of a genomic gap sequence upstream of miR-17-92 cluster in all the birds whose genomes have been sequenced. In this study, genome walking was used to close the genomic gap upstream of chicken miR-17-92 cluster. In addition, bioinformatics analysis, reporter gene assay and truncation mutagenesis were used to investigate functional role of the genomic gap sequence. Genome walking analysis showed that the gap region was 1704 bp long, and its GC content was 80.11%. Bioinformatics analysis showed that in the gap region, there was a 200 bp conserved sequence among the tested 10 species (Gallus gallus, Homo sapiens, Pan troglodytes, Bos taurus, Sus scrofa, Rattus norvegicus, Mus musculus, Possum, Danio rerio, Rana nigromaculata), which is core promoter region of mammalian miR-17-92 host gene (MIR17HG). Promoter luciferase reporter gene vector of the gap region was constructed and reporter assay was performed. The result showed that the promoter activity of pGL3-cMIR17HG (-4228/-2506) was 417 times than that of negative control (empty pGL3 basic vector), suggesting that chicken miR-17-92 cluster promoter exists in the gap region. To further gain insight into the promoter structure, two different truncations for the cloned gap sequence were generated by PCR. One had a truncation of 448 bp at the 5'-end and the other had a truncation of 894 bp at the 3'-end. Further reporter analysis showed that compared with the promoter activity of pGL3-cMIR17HG (-4228/-2506), the reporter activities of the 5'-end truncation and the 3'-end truncation were reduced by 19.82% and 60.14%, respectively. These data demonstrated that the important promoter region of chicken miR-17-92 cluster is located in the -3400/-2506 bp region. Our results lay the foundation for revealing the transcriptional regulatory mechanisms of chicken miR-17-92 cluster.

DEsingle for detecting three types of differential expression in single-cell RNA-seq data.

PubMed

Miao, Zhun; Deng, Ke; Wang, Xiaowo; Zhang, Xuegong

2018-04-24

The excessive amount of zeros in single-cell RNA-seq data include "real" zeros due to the on-off nature of gene transcription in single cells and "dropout" zeros due to technical reasons. Existing differential expression (DE) analysis methods cannot distinguish these two types of zeros. We developed an R package DEsingle which employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model to estimate the proportion of real and dropout zeros and to define and detect 3 types of DE genes in single-cell RNA-seq data with higher accuracy. The R package DEsingle is freely available at https://github.com/miaozhun/DEsingle and is under Bioconductor's consideration now. zhangxg@tsinghua.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

AMP: Assembly Matching Pursuit.

PubMed

Biswas, S; Jojic, V

2013-01-01

Metagenomics, the study of the total genetic material isolated from a biological host, promises to reveal host-microbe or microbe-microbe interactions that may help to personalize medicine or improve agronomic practice. We introduce a method that discovers metagenomic units (MGUs) relevant for phenotype prediction through sequence-based dictionary learning. The method aggregates patient-specific dictionaries and estimates MGU abundances in order to summarize a whole population and yield universally predictive biomarkers. We analyze the impact of Gaussian, Poisson, and Negative Binomial read count models in guiding dictionary construction by examining classification efficiency on a number of synthetic datasets and a real dataset from Ref. 1. Each outperforms standard methods of dictionary composition, such as random projection and orthogonal matching pursuit. Additionally, the predictive MGUs they recover are biologically relevant.

A review on models for count data with extra zeros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamri, Nik Sarah Nik; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

2017-04-01

Typically, the zero inflated models are usually used in modelling count data with excess zeros. The existence of the extra zeros could be structural zeros or random which occur by chance. These types of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences. As found in the literature, the most popular zero inflated models used are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial. Recently, more complex models have been developed to account for overdispersion and unobserved heterogeneity. In addition, more extended distributions are also considered in modelling data with this feature. In this paper, we review related literature, provide a recent development and summary on models for count data with extra zeros.

The Association between Romantic Relationships and Delinquency in Adolescence and Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Cui, Ming; Ueno, Koji; Fincham, Frank D.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Wickrama, K. A. S.

2011-01-01

This study examined the association between romantic relationships and delinquency in adolescence and young adulthood. Using a large, longitudinal, and nationally representative sample, results from negative binomial regressions showed a positive association between romantic involvement and delinquency in adolescence. Further, the cumulative number of romantic relationships from adolescence to young adulthood was positively related to delinquency in young adulthood even controlling for earlier delinquency in adolescence. These analyses also controlled for the effects of participant gender, age at initial assessment, puberty, race/ethnicity, and other demographic characteristics (e.g., family structure and parents’ education). Findings are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding the role of romantic relationships in the development of young people and for stimulating future research questions. PMID:22984343

Factors affecting road mortality of white-tailed deer in eastern South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Klaver, Robert W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Galster, Dwight H.; Schauer, Ron J.; Morlock, Wilbert W.; Delger, Joshua A.

2008-01-01

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) mortalities (n = 4,433) caused by collisions with automobiles during 2003 were modeled in 35 counties in eastern South Dakota. Seventeen independent variables and 5 independent variable interactions were evaluated to explain deer mortalities. A negative binomial regression model (Ln Y = 1.25 – 0.12 [percentage tree coverage] + 0.0002 [county area] + 5.39 [county hunter success rate] + 0.0023 [vehicle proxy 96–104 km/hr roads], model deviance = 33.43, χ2 = 27.53, df = 27) was chosen using a combination of a priori model selection and AICc. Management options include use of the model to predict road mortalities and to increase the number of hunting licenses, which could result in fewer DVCs.

Void probability as a function of the void's shape and scale-invariant models. [in studies of spacial galactic distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elizalde, E.; Gaztanaga, E.

1992-01-01

The dependence of counts in cells on the shape of the cell for the large scale galaxy distribution is studied. A very concrete prediction can be done concerning the void distribution for scale invariant models. The prediction is tested on a sample of the CfA catalog, and good agreement is found. It is observed that the probability of a cell to be occupied is bigger for some elongated cells. A phenomenological scale invariant model for the observed distribution of the counts in cells, an extension of the negative binomial distribution, is presented in order to illustrate how this dependence can be quantitatively determined. An original, intuitive derivation of this model is presented.

Demonstration of fundamental statistics by studying timing of electronics signals in a physics-based laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, Shaun E.; Semkow, Thomas M.; Remling, David J.; Bradt, Clayton J.

2017-07-01

We have developed accessible methods to demonstrate fundamental statistics in several phenomena, in the context of teaching electronic signal processing in a physics-based college-level curriculum. A relationship between the exponential time-interval distribution and Poisson counting distribution for a Markov process with constant rate is derived in a novel way and demonstrated using nuclear counting. Negative binomial statistics is demonstrated as a model for overdispersion and justified by the effect of electronic noise in nuclear counting. The statistics of digital packets on a computer network are shown to be compatible with the fractal-point stochastic process leading to a power-law as well as generalized inverse Gaussian density distributions of time intervals between packets.

Non-normal Distributions Commonly Used in Health, Education, and Social Sciences: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Bono, Roser; Blanca, María J.; Arnau, Jaume; Gómez-Benito, Juana

2017-01-01

Statistical analysis is crucial for research and the choice of analytical technique should take into account the specific distribution of data. Although the data obtained from health, educational, and social sciences research are often not normally distributed, there are very few studies detailing which distributions are most likely to represent data in these disciplines. The aim of this systematic review was to determine the frequency of appearance of the most common non-normal distributions in the health, educational, and social sciences. The search was carried out in the Web of Science database, from which we retrieved the abstracts of papers published between 2010 and 2015. The selection was made on the basis of the title and the abstract, and was performed independently by two reviewers. The inter-rater reliability for article selection was high (Cohen’s kappa = 0.84), and agreement regarding the type of distribution reached 96.5%. A total of 262 abstracts were included in the final review. The distribution of the response variable was reported in 231 of these abstracts, while in the remaining 31 it was merely stated that the distribution was non-normal. In terms of their frequency of appearance, the most-common non-normal distributions can be ranked in descending order as follows: gamma, negative binomial, multinomial, binomial, lognormal, and exponential. In addition to identifying the distributions most commonly used in empirical studies these results will help researchers to decide which distributions should be included in simulation studies examining statistical procedures. PMID:28959227

Generalized empirical Bayesian methods for discovery of differential data in high-throughput biology.

PubMed

Hardcastle, Thomas J

2016-01-15

High-throughput data are now commonplace in biological research. Rapidly changing technologies and application mean that novel methods for detecting differential behaviour that account for a 'large P, small n' setting are required at an increasing rate. The development of such methods is, in general, being done on an ad hoc basis, requiring further development cycles and a lack of standardization between analyses. We present here a generalized method for identifying differential behaviour within high-throughput biological data through empirical Bayesian methods. This approach is based on our baySeq algorithm for identification of differential expression in RNA-seq data based on a negative binomial distribution, and in paired data based on a beta-binomial distribution. Here we show how the same empirical Bayesian approach can be applied to any parametric distribution, removing the need for lengthy development of novel methods for differently distributed data. Comparisons with existing methods developed to address specific problems in high-throughput biological data show that these generic methods can achieve equivalent or better performance. A number of enhancements to the basic algorithm are also presented to increase flexibility and reduce computational costs. The methods are implemented in the R baySeq (v2) package, available on Bioconductor http://www.bioconductor.org/packages/release/bioc/html/baySeq.html. tjh48@cam.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Quantification of integrated HIV DNA by repetitive-sampling Alu-HIV PCR on the basis of poisson statistics.

PubMed

De Spiegelaere, Ward; Malatinkova, Eva; Lynch, Lindsay; Van Nieuwerburgh, Filip; Messiaen, Peter; O'Doherty, Una; Vandekerckhove, Linos

2014-06-01

Quantification of integrated proviral HIV DNA by repetitive-sampling Alu-HIV PCR is a candidate virological tool to monitor the HIV reservoir in patients. However, the experimental procedures and data analysis of the assay are complex and hinder its widespread use. Here, we provide an improved and simplified data analysis method by adopting binomial and Poisson statistics. A modified analysis method on the basis of Poisson statistics was used to analyze the binomial data of positive and negative reactions from a 42-replicate Alu-HIV PCR by use of dilutions of an integration standard and on samples of 57 HIV-infected patients. Results were compared with the quantitative output of the previously described Alu-HIV PCR method. Poisson-based quantification of the Alu-HIV PCR was linearly correlated with the standard dilution series, indicating that absolute quantification with the Poisson method is a valid alternative for data analysis of repetitive-sampling Alu-HIV PCR data. Quantitative outputs of patient samples assessed by the Poisson method correlated with the previously described Alu-HIV PCR analysis, indicating that this method is a valid alternative for quantifying integrated HIV DNA. Poisson-based analysis of the Alu-HIV PCR data enables absolute quantification without the need of a standard dilution curve. Implementation of the CI estimation permits improved qualitative analysis of the data and provides a statistical basis for the required minimal number of technical replicates. © 2014 The American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Orchestrating Semiotic Leaps from Tacit to Cultural Quantitative Reasoning--The Case of Anticipating Experimental Outcomes of a Quasi-Binomial Random Generator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abrahamson, Dor

2009-01-01

This article reports on a case study from a design-based research project that investigated how students make sense of the disciplinary tools they are taught to use, and specifically, what personal, interpersonal, and material resources support this process. The probability topic of binomial distribution was selected due to robust documentation of…

Equivalence of truncated count mixture distributions and mixtures of truncated count distributions.

PubMed

Böhning, Dankmar; Kuhnert, Ronny

2006-12-01

This article is about modeling count data with zero truncation. A parametric count density family is considered. The truncated mixture of densities from this family is different from the mixture of truncated densities from the same family. Whereas the former model is more natural to formulate and to interpret, the latter model is theoretically easier to treat. It is shown that for any mixing distribution leading to a truncated mixture, a (usually different) mixing distribution can be found so that the associated mixture of truncated densities equals the truncated mixture, and vice versa. This implies that the likelihood surfaces for both situations agree, and in this sense both models are equivalent. Zero-truncated count data models are used frequently in the capture-recapture setting to estimate population size, and it can be shown that the two Horvitz-Thompson estimators, associated with the two models, agree. In particular, it is possible to achieve strong results for mixtures of truncated Poisson densities, including reliable, global construction of the unique NPMLE (nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator) of the mixing distribution, implying a unique estimator for the population size. The benefit of these results lies in the fact that it is valid to work with the mixture of truncated count densities, which is less appealing for the practitioner but theoretically easier. Mixtures of truncated count densities form a convex linear model, for which a developed theory exists, including global maximum likelihood theory as well as algorithmic approaches. Once the problem has been solved in this class, it might readily be transformed back to the original problem by means of an explicitly given mapping. Applications of these ideas are given, particularly in the case of the truncated Poisson family.

Children at risk: A comparison of child pedestrian traffic collisions in Santiago, Chile, and Seoul, South Korea.

PubMed

Blazquez, Carola; Lee, Jae Seung; Zegras, Christopher

2016-01-01

We examine and compare pedestrian-vehicle collisions and injury outcomes involving school-age children between 5 and 18 years of age in the capital cities of Santiago, Chile, and Seoul, South Korea. We conduct descriptive analysis of the child pedestrian-vehicle collision (P-VC) data (904 collisions for Santiago and 3,505 for Seoul) reported by the police between 2010 and 2011. We also statistically analyze factors associated with child P-VCs, by both incident severity and age group, using 3 regression models: negative binomial, probit, and spatial lag models. Descriptive statistics suggest that child pedestrians in Seoul have a higher risk of being involved in traffic crashes than their counterparts in Santiago. However, in Seoul a greater proportion of children are unharmed as a result of these incidents, whereas more child pedestrians are killed in Santiago. Younger children in Seoul suffer more injuries from P-VCs than in Santiago. The majority of P-VCs in both cities tend to occur in the afternoon and evening, at intersections in Santiago and at midblock locations in Seoul. Our model results suggest that the resident population of children is positively associated with P-VCs in both cities, and school concentrations apparently increase P-VC risk among older children in Santiago. Bus stops are associated with higher P-VCs in Seoul, and subway stations relate to higher P-VCs among older children in Santiago. Zone-level land use mix was negatively related to child P-VCs in Seoul but not in Santiago. Arterial roads are associated with fewer P-VCs, especially for younger children in both cities. A share of collector roads is associated with increased P-VCs in Seoul but fewer P-VCs in Santiago. Hilliness is related to fewer P-VCs in both cities. Differences in these model results for Santiago and Seoul warrant additional analysis, as do the differences in results across model type (negative binomial versus spatial lag models). To reduce child P-VCs, this study suggests the need to assess subway station and bus stop area conditions in Santiago and Seoul, respectively; areas with high density of schools in Santiago; areas with greater concentrations of children in both cities; and collector roads in Seoul.

Enumerative and binomial sequential sampling plans for the multicolored Asian lady beetle (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) in wine grapes.

PubMed

Galvan, T L; Burkness, E C; Hutchison, W D

2007-06-01

To develop a practical integrated pest management (IPM) system for the multicolored Asian lady beetle, Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), in wine grapes, we assessed the spatial distribution of H. axyridis and developed eight sampling plans to estimate adult density or infestation level in grape clusters. We used 49 data sets collected from commercial vineyards in 2004 and 2005, in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Enumerative plans were developed using two precision levels (0.10 and 0.25); the six binomial plans reflected six unique action thresholds (3, 7, 12, 18, 22, and 31% of cluster samples infested with at least one H. axyridis). The spatial distribution of H. axyridis in wine grapes was aggregated, independent of cultivar and year, but it was more randomly distributed as mean density declined. The average sample number (ASN) for each sampling plan was determined using resampling software. For research purposes, an enumerative plan with a precision level of 0.10 (SE/X) resulted in a mean ASN of 546 clusters. For IPM applications, the enumerative plan with a precision level of 0.25 resulted in a mean ASN of 180 clusters. In contrast, the binomial plans resulted in much lower ASNs and provided high probabilities of arriving at correct "treat or no-treat" decisions, making these plans more efficient for IPM applications. For a tally threshold of one adult per cluster, the operating characteristic curves for the six action thresholds provided binomial sequential sampling plans with mean ASNs of only 19-26 clusters, and probabilities of making correct decisions between 83 and 96%. The benefits of the binomial sampling plans are discussed within the context of improving IPM programs for wine grapes.

Relation between social information processing and intimate partner violence in dating couples.

PubMed

Setchell, Sarah; Fritz, Patti Timmons; Glasgow, Jillian

2017-07-01

We used couple-level data to predict physical acts of intimate partner violence (IPV) from self-reported negative emotions and social information-processing (SIP) abilities among 100 dating couples (n = 200; mean age = 21.45 years). Participants read a series of hypothetical conflict situation vignettes and responded to questionnaires to assess negative emotions and various facets of SIP including attributions for partner behavior, generation of response alternatives, and response selection. We conducted a series of negative binomial mixed-model regressions based on the actor-partner interdependence model (APIM; Kenny, Kashy, & Cook, 2006, Dyadic data analysis. New York, NY: Guilford Press). There were significant results for the response generation and negative emotion models. Participants who generated fewer coping response alternatives were at greater risk of victimization (actor effect). Women were at greater risk of victimization if they had partners who generated fewer coping response alternatives (sex by partner interaction effect). Generation of less competent coping response alternatives predicted greater risk of perpetration among men, whereas generation of more competent coping response alternatives predicted greater risk of victimization among women (sex by actor interaction effects). Two significant actor by partner interaction effects were found for the negative emotion models. Participants who reported discrepant levels of negative emotions from their partners were at greatest risk of perpetration. Participants who reported high levels of negative emotions were at greatest risk of victimization if they had partners who reported low levels of negative emotions. This research has implications for researchers and clinicians interested in addressing the problem of IPV. Aggr. Behav. 43:329-341, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Truncation of Gal4p explains the inactivation of the GAL/MEL regulon in both Saccharomyces bayanus and some Saccharomyces cerevisiae wine strains.

PubMed

Dulermo, Rémi; Legras, Jean-Luc; Brunel, François; Devillers, Hugo; Sarilar, Véronique; Neuvéglise, Cécile; Nguyen, Huu-Vang

2016-09-01

In the past, the galactose-negative (Gal(-)) phenotype was a key physiological character used to distinguish Saccharomyces bayanus from S. cerevisiae In this work, we investigated the inactivation of GAL gene networks in S. bayanus, which is an S. uvarum/S. eubayanus hybrid, and in S. cerevisiae wine strains erroneously labelled 'S. bayanus'. We made an inventory of their GAL genes using genomes that were either available publicly, re-sequenced by us, or assembled from public data and completed with targeted sequencing. In the S. eubayanus/S. uvarum CBS 380(T) hybrid, the GAL/MEL network is composed of genes from both parents: from S. uvarum, an otherwise complete set that lacks GAL4, and from S. eubayanus, a truncated version of GAL4 and an additional copy of GAL3 and GAL80 Similarly, two different truncated GAL4 alleles were found in S. cerevisiae wine strains EC1118 and LalvinQA23. The lack of GAL4 activity in these strains was corrected by introducing a full-length copy of S. cerevisiae GAL4 on a CEN4/ARS plasmid. Transformation with this plasmid restored galactose utilisation in Gal(-) strains, and melibiose fermentation in strain CBS 380(T) The melibiose fermentation phenotype, formerly regarded as characteristic of S. uvarum, turned out to be widespread among Saccharomyces species. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reevaluation of RINT1 as a breast cancer predisposition gene.

PubMed

Li, Na; Thompson, Ella R; Rowley, Simone M; McInerny, Simone; Devereux, Lisa; Goode, David; Investigators, LifePool; Wong-Brown, Michelle W; Scott, Rodney J; Trainer, Alison H; Gorringe, Kylie L; James, Paul A; Campbell, Ian G

2016-09-01

Rad50 interactor 1 (RINT1) has recently been reported as an intermediate-penetrance (odds ratio 3.24) breast cancer susceptibility gene, as well as a risk factor for Lynch syndrome. The coding regions and exon-intron boundaries of RINT1 were sequenced in 2024 familial breast cancer cases previously tested negative for BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 mutations and 1886 population-matched cancer-free controls using HaloPlex Targeted Enrichment Assays. Only one RINT1 protein-truncating variant was detected in a control. No excess was observed in the total number of rare variants (truncating and missense) (28, 1.38 %, vs. 27, 1.43 %. P > 0.999) or in the number of variants predicted to be pathogenic by various in silico tools (Condel, Polyphen2, SIFT, and CADD) in the cases compared to the controls. In addition, there was no difference in the incidence of classic Lynch syndrome cancers in RINT1 rare variant-carrying families compared to RINT1 wild-type families. This study had 90 % power to detect an odds ratio of at least 2.06, and the results do not provide any support for RINT1 being a moderate-penetrance breast cancer susceptibility gene, although larger studies will be required to exclude more modest effects. This study emphasizes the need for caution before designating a cancer predisposition role for any gene based on very rare truncating variants and in silico-predicted missense variants.

Tissue-specific autoregulation of Drosophila suppressor of forked by alternative poly(A) site utilization leads to accumulation of the suppressor of forked protein in mitotically active cells.

PubMed Central

Juge, F; Audibert, A; Benoit, B; Simonelig, M

2000-01-01

The Suppressor of forked protein is the Drosophila homolog of the 77K subunit of human cleavage stimulation factor, a complex required for the first step of the mRNA 3'-end-processing reaction. We have shown previously that wild-type su(f) function is required for the accumulation of a truncated su(f) transcript polyadenylated in intron 4 of the gene. This led us to propose a model in which the Su(f) protein would negatively regulate its own accumulation by stimulating 3'-end formation of this truncated su(f) RNA. In this article, we demonstrate this model and show that su(f) autoregulation is tissue specific. The Su(f) protein accumulates at a high level in dividing tissues, but not in nondividing tissues. We show that this distribution of the Su(f) protein results from stimulation by Su(f) of the tissue-specific utilization of the su(f) intronic poly(A) site, leading to the accumulation of the truncated su(f) transcript in nondividing tissues. Utilization of this intronic poly(A) site is affected in a su(f) mutant and restored in the mutant with a transgene encoding wild-type Su(f) protein. These data provide an in vivo example of cell-type-specific regulation of a protein level by poly(A) site choice, and confirm the role of Su(f) in regulation of poly(A) site utilization. PMID:11105753

SSTAR, a Stand-Alone Easy-To-Use Antimicrobial Resistance Gene Predictor.

PubMed

de Man, Tom J B; Limbago, Brandi M

2016-01-01

We present the easy-to-use Sequence Search Tool for Antimicrobial Resistance, SSTAR. It combines a locally executed BLASTN search against a customizable database with an intuitive graphical user interface for identifying antimicrobial resistance (AR) genes from genomic data. Although the database is initially populated from a public repository of acquired resistance determinants (i.e., ARG-ANNOT), it can be customized for particular pathogen groups and resistance mechanisms. For instance, outer membrane porin sequences associated with carbapenem resistance phenotypes can be added, and known intrinsic mechanisms can be included. Unique about this tool is the ability to easily detect putative new alleles and truncated versions of existing AR genes. Variants and potential new alleles are brought to the attention of the user for further investigation. For instance, SSTAR is able to identify modified or truncated versions of porins, which may be of great importance in carbapenemase-negative carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. SSTAR is written in Java and is therefore platform independent and compatible with both Windows and Unix operating systems. SSTAR and its manual, which includes a simple installation guide, are freely available from https://github.com/tomdeman-bio/Sequence-Search-Tool-for-Antimicrobial-Resistance-SSTAR-. IMPORTANCE Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is quickly becoming a routine method for identifying genes associated with antimicrobial resistance (AR). However, for many microbiologists, the use and analysis of WGS data present a substantial challenge. We developed SSTAR, software with a graphical user interface that enables the identification of known AR genes from WGS and has the unique capacity to easily detect new variants of known AR genes, including truncated protein variants. Current software solutions do not notify the user when genes are truncated and, therefore, likely nonfunctional, which makes phenotype predictions less accurate. SSTAR users can apply any AR database of interest as a reference comparator and can manually add genes that impact resistance, even if such genes are not resistance determinants per se (e.g., porins and efflux pumps).

Truncated Linear Statistics Associated with the Eigenvalues of Random Matrices II. Partial Sums over Proper Time Delays for Chaotic Quantum Dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabsch, Aurélien; Majumdar, Satya N.; Texier, Christophe

2017-06-01

Invariant ensembles of random matrices are characterized by the distribution of their eigenvalues \\{λ _1,\\ldots ,λ _N\\}. We study the distribution of truncated linear statistics of the form \\tilde{L}=\\sum _{i=1}^p f(λ _i) with p

In vivo evidence of TonB shuttling between the cytoplasmic and outer membrane in Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Larsen, Ray A; Letain, Tracy E; Postle, Kathleen

2003-07-01

Gram-negative bacteria are able to convert potential energy inherent in the proton gradient of the cytoplasmic membrane into active nutrient transport across the outer membrane. The transduction of energy is mediated by TonB protein. Previous studies suggest a model in which TonB makes sequential and cyclic contact with proteins in each membrane, a process called shuttling. A key feature of shuttling is that the amino-terminal signal anchor must quit its association with the cytoplasmic membrane, and TonB becomes associated solely with the outer membrane. However, the initial studies did not exclude the possibility that TonB was artifactually pulled from the cytoplasmic membrane by the fractionation process. To resolve this ambiguity, we devised a method to test whether the extreme TonB amino-terminus, located in the cytoplasm, ever became accessible to the cys-specific, cytoplasmic membrane-impermeant molecule, Oregon Green(R) 488 maleimide (OGM) in vivo. A full-length TonB and a truncated TonB were modified to carry a sole cysteine at position 3. Both full-length TonB and truncated TonB (consisting of the amino-terminal two-thirds) achieved identical conformations in the cytoplasmic membrane, as determined by their abilities to cross-link to the cytoplasmic membrane protein ExbB and their abilities to respond conformationally to the presence or absence of proton motive force. Full-length TonB could be amino-terminally labelled in vivo, suggesting that it was periplasmically exposed. In contrast, truncated TonB, which did not associate with the outer membrane, was not specifically labelled in vivo. The truncated TonB also acted as a control for leakage of OGM across the cytoplasmic membrane. Further, the extent of labelling for full-length TonB correlated roughly with the proportion of TonB found at the outer membrane. These findings suggest that TonB does indeed disengage from the cytoplasmic membrane during energy transduction and shuttle to the outer membrane.

Truncating mutations in the last exon of NOTCH3 cause lateral meningocele syndrome.

PubMed

Gripp, Karen W; Robbins, Katherine M; Sobreira, Nara L; Witmer, P Dane; Bird, Lynne M; Avela, Kristiina; Makitie, Outi; Alves, Daniela; Hogue, Jacob S; Zackai, Elaine H; Doheny, Kimberly F; Stabley, Deborah L; Sol-Church, Katia

2015-02-01

Lateral meningocele syndrome (LMS, OMIM%130720), also known as Lehman syndrome, is a very rare skeletal disorder with facial anomalies, hypotonia and meningocele-related neurologic dysfunction. The characteristic lateral meningoceles represent the severe end of the dural ectasia spectrum and are typically most severe in the lower spine. Facial features of LMS include hypertelorism and telecanthus, high arched eyebrows, ptosis, midfacial hypoplasia, micrognathia, high and narrow palate, low-set ears and a hypotonic appearance. Hyperextensibility, hernias and scoliosis reflect a connective tissue abnormality, and aortic dilation, a high-pitched nasal voice, wormian bones and osteolysis may be present. Lateral meningocele syndrome has phenotypic overlap with Hajdu-Cheney syndrome. We performed exome resequencing in five unrelated individuals with LMS and identified heterozygous truncating NOTCH3 mutations. In an additional unrelated individual Sanger sequencing revealed a deleterious variant in the same exon 33. In total, five novel de novo NOTCH3 mutations were identified in six unrelated patients. One had a 26 bp deletion (c.6461_6486del, p.G2154fsTer78), two carried the same single base pair insertion (c.6692_93insC, p.P2231fsTer11), and three individuals had a nonsense point mutation at c.6247A > T (pK2083*), c.6663C > G (p.Y2221*) or c.6732C > A, (p.Y2244*). All mutations cluster into the last coding exon, resulting in premature termination of the protein and truncation of the negative regulatory proline-glutamate-serine-threonine rich PEST domain. Our results suggest that mutant mRNA products escape nonsense mediated decay. The truncated NOTCH3 may cause gain-of-function through decreased clearance of the active intracellular product, resembling NOTCH2 mutations in the clinically related Hajdu-Cheney syndrome and contrasting the NOTCH3 missense mutations causing CADASIL. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Alternative Splicing Generates a Novel Truncated Cav1.2 Channel in Neonatal Rat Heart*

PubMed Central

Liao, Ping; Yu, Dejie; Hu, Zhenyu; Liang, Mui Cheng; Wang, Jue Jin; Yu, Chye Yun; Ng, Gandi; Yong, Tan Fong; Soon, Jia Lin; Chua, Yeow Leng; Soong, Tuck Wah

2015-01-01

L-type Cav1.2 Ca2+ channel undergoes extensive alternative splicing, generating functionally different channels. Alternatively spliced Cav1.2 Ca2+ channels have been found to be expressed in a tissue-specific manner or under pathological conditions. To provide a more comprehensive understanding of alternative splicing in Cav1.2 channel, we systematically investigated the splicing patterns in the neonatal and adult rat hearts. The neonatal heart expresses a novel 104-bp exon 33L at the IVS3-4 linker that is generated by the use of an alternative acceptor site. Inclusion of exon 33L causes frameshift and C-terminal truncation. Whole-cell electrophysiological recordings of Cav1.233L channels expressed in HEK 293 cells did not detect any current. However, when co-expressed with wild type Cav1.2 channels, Cav1.233L channels reduced the current density and altered the electrophysiological properties of the wild type Cav1.2 channels. Interestingly, the truncated 3.5-domain Cav1.233L channels also yielded a dominant negative effect on Cav1.3 channels, but not on Cav3.2 channels, suggesting that Cavβ subunits is required for Cav1.233L regulation. A biochemical study provided evidence that Cav1.233L channels enhanced protein degradation of wild type channels via the ubiquitin-proteasome system. Although the physiological significance of the Cav1.233L channels in neonatal heart is still unknown, our report demonstrates the ability of this novel truncated channel to modulate the activity of the functional Cav1.2 channels. Moreover, the human Cav1.2 channel also contains exon 33L that is developmentally regulated in heart. Unexpectedly, human exon 33L has a one-nucleotide insertion that allowed in-frame translation of a full Cav1.2 channel. An electrophysiological study showed that human Cav1.233L channel is a functional channel but conducts Ca2+ ions at a much lower level. PMID:25694430

A form of 'parental presence/absence' (PPA) technique for the child patient with dental behaviour management problems.

PubMed

Kotsanos, N; Coolidge, T; Velonis, D; Arapostathis, K N

2009-06-01

This paper reports on the use of early introduction of a specific parental presence/absence (PPA) behavioural technique to manage the initially uncooperative child. Using a prospective design, 440 healthy children aged 3 to 10 years visited a paediatric dental practice within 33 months. Children exhibiting initially Frankl 'negative' and 'definitely negative' behaviour were empathically offered parental presence only if they were cooperative. Otherwise, the parent stepped out until behaviour improvement. t-tests and Chi-square tests were used to compare characteristics of initially cooperative and uncooperative children, as well as proportions of parents who were asked to leave the surgery. The technique's success was assessed by a one sample binomial test. 75 of the children presented as Frankl either 'negative' (30) or 'definitely negative' (45) at their first visit; 70 (93.3%, p<0.001) responded to the PPA technique by displaying positive behaviour as their first visit progressed. 38 responded without the need to ask the parent to exit the practice room, while the other 32 responded only after their parent exited. 52 children had additional appointments, and 8 required an application of PPA at a second appointment; all children cooperated in all subsequent appointments. Early and empathic application of the PPA technique appears very successful in managing initially uncooperative child patients, suggesting that a randomised controlled trial of the technique is warranted.

The influence of impulsiveness on binge eating and problem gambling: A prospective study of gender differences in Canadian adults.

PubMed

Farstad, Sarah M; von Ranson, Kristin M; Hodgins, David C; El-Guebaly, Nady; Casey, David M; Schopflocher, Don P

2015-09-01

This study investigated the degree to which facets of impulsiveness predicted future binge eating and problem gambling, 2 theorized forms of behavioral addiction. Participants were 596 women and 406 men from 4 age cohorts randomly recruited from a Canadian province. Participants completed self-report measures of 3 facets of impulsiveness (negative urgency, sensation seeking, lack of persistence), binge-eating frequency, and problem-gambling symptoms. Impulsiveness was assessed at baseline, and assessments of binge eating and problem gambling were followed up after 3 years. Weighted data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial and Poisson regression models. We found evidence of transdiagnostic and disorder-specific predictors of binge eating and problem gambling. Negative urgency emerged as a common predictor of binge eating and problem gambling among women and men. There were disorder-specific personality traits identified among men only: High lack-of-persistence scores predicted binge eating and high sensation-seeking scores predicted problem gambling. Among women, younger age predicted binge eating and older age predicted problem gambling. Thus, there are gender differences in facets of impulsiveness that longitudinally predict binge eating and problem gambling, suggesting that treatments for these behaviors should consider gender-specific personality and demographic traits in addition to the common personality trait of negative urgency. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

How does the emotive content of televised anti-smoking mass media campaigns influence monthly calls to the NHS Stop Smoking helpline in England?

PubMed Central

Richardson, Sol; Langley, Tessa; Szatkowski, Lisa; Sims, Michelle; Gilmore, Anna; McNeill, Ann; Lewis, Sarah

2014-01-01

Objective To investigate the effects of different types of televised mass media campaign content on calls to the English NHS Stop Smoking helpline. Method We used UK government-funded televised tobacco control campaigns from April 2005 to April 2010, categorised as either “positive” (eliciting happiness, satisfaction or hope) or “negative” (eliciting fear, guilt or disgust). We built negative binomial generalised additive models (GAMs) with linear and smooth terms for monthly per capita exposure to each campaign type (expressed as Gross Ratings Points, or GRPs) to determine their effect on calls in the same month. We adjusted for seasonal trends, inflation-adjusted weighted average cigarette prices and other tobacco control policies. Results We found non-linear associations between exposure to positive and negative emotive campaigns and quitline calls. The rate of calls increased more than 50% as exposure to positive campaigns increased from 0 to 400 GRPs (rate ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.25–2.01). An increase in calls in response to negative emotive campaigns was only apparent after monthly exposure exceeded 400 GRPs. Conclusion While positive campaigns were most effective at increasing quitline calls, those with negative emotive content were also found to impact on call rates but only at higher levels of exposure. PMID:25197004

Haploinsufficiency for DNA methyltransferase 3A predisposes hematopoietic cells to myeloid malignancies

PubMed Central

Cole, Christopher B.; Russler-Germain, David A.; Ketkar, Shamika; Verdoni, Angela M.; Smith, Amanda M.; Bangert, Celia V.; Helton, Nichole M.; Guo, Mindy; O’Laughlin, Shelly; Fronick, Catrina; Fulton, Robert; Chang, Gue Su; Petti, Allegra A.; Miller, Christopher A.; Ley, Timothy J.

2017-01-01

The gene that encodes de novo DNA methyltransferase 3A (DNMT3A) is frequently mutated in acute myeloid leukemia genomes. Point mutations at position R882 have been shown to cause a dominant negative loss of DNMT3A methylation activity, but 15% of DNMT3A mutations are predicted to produce truncated proteins that could either have dominant negative activities or cause loss of function and haploinsufficiency. Here, we demonstrate that 3 of these mutants produce truncated, inactive proteins that do not dimerize with WT DNMT3A, strongly supporting the haploinsufficiency hypothesis. We therefore evaluated hematopoiesis in mice heterozygous for a constitutive null Dnmt3a mutation. With no other manipulations, Dnmt3a+/– mice developed myeloid skewing over time, and their hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells exhibited a long-term competitive transplantation advantage. Dnmt3a+/– mice also spontaneously developed transplantable myeloid malignancies after a long latent period, and 3 of 12 tumors tested had cooperating mutations in the Ras/MAPK pathway. The residual Dnmt3a allele was neither mutated nor downregulated in these tumors. The bone marrow cells of Dnmt3a+/– mice had a subtle but statistically significant DNA hypomethylation phenotype that was not associated with gene dysregulation. These data demonstrate that haploinsufficiency for Dnmt3a alters hematopoiesis and predisposes mice (and probably humans) to myeloid malignancies by a mechanism that is not yet clear. PMID:28872462

TGF-beta induces connexin43 gene expression in normal murine mammary gland epithelial cells via activation of p38 and PI3K/AKT signaling pathways.

PubMed

Tacheau, Charlotte; Fontaine, Juliette; Loy, Jennifer; Mauviel, Alain; Verrecchia, Franck

2008-12-01

One of the shared physiological roles between TGF-beta and connexin family members is to inhibit epithelial cell cycle progression and consequently, to provide protection against malignant transformation. Herein, we demonstrated that TGF-beta1 induces the expression of connexin43 (Cx43) in normal murine mammary gland (NMuMG) cell lines at the protein and mRNA levels, and transcriptionally. Using overexpression of a truncated dominant-negative form of Cx43, we determined that the modulation of gap junctional communication by TGF-beta1 plays a key role in the control of NMuMG cells proliferation by TGF-beta1. In addition, using overexpression of truncated dominant-negative forms of either Smad2 or Smad3, and MDA-MB-468 human breast carcinoma cells deficient for Smad4, we determined that the Smad cascade is not implicated in TGF-beta1 effect on Cx43 expression. Using specific pharmacologic inhibitors for JNK, ERK, p38, and PI3K/AKT signaling pathways, we demonstrated the cooperative role of p38 and PI3K/AKT signaling in TGF-beta1-induced Cx43 expression and gap junctional communication. Furthermore, transfection of a c-jun antisense expression vector significantly prevented TGF-beta1-induced Cx43 gene expression demonstrating the involvement of c-Jun/AP-1 pathway together with p38 and PI3K/AKT pathways in mediating TGF-beta1-induced Cx43 gene expression.

A platform-independent method to reduce CT truncation artifacts using discriminative dictionary representations.

PubMed

Chen, Yang; Budde, Adam; Li, Ke; Li, Yinsheng; Hsieh, Jiang; Chen, Guang-Hong

2017-01-01

When the scan field of view (SFOV) of a CT system is not large enough to enclose the entire cross-section of the patient, or the patient needs to be positioned partially outside the SFOV for certain clinical applications, truncation artifacts often appear in the reconstructed CT images. Many truncation artifact correction methods perform extrapolations of the truncated projection data based on certain a priori assumptions. The purpose of this work was to develop a novel CT truncation artifact reduction method that directly operates on DICOM images. The blooming of pixel values associated with truncation was modeled using exponential decay functions, and based on this model, a discriminative dictionary was constructed to represent truncation artifacts and nonartifact image information in a mutually exclusive way. The discriminative dictionary consists of a truncation artifact subdictionary and a nonartifact subdictionary. The truncation artifact subdictionary contains 1000 atoms with different decay parameters, while the nonartifact subdictionary contains 1000 independent realizations of Gaussian white noise that are exclusive with the artifact features. By sparsely representing an artifact-contaminated CT image with this discriminative dictionary, the image was separated into a truncation artifact-dominated image and a complementary image with reduced truncation artifacts. The artifact-dominated image was then subtracted from the original image with an appropriate weighting coefficient to generate the final image with reduced artifacts. This proposed method was validated via physical phantom studies and retrospective human subject studies. Quantitative image evaluation metrics including the relative root-mean-square error (rRMSE) and the universal image quality index (UQI) were used to quantify the performance of the algorithm. For both phantom and human subject studies, truncation artifacts at the peripheral region of the SFOV were effectively reduced, revealing soft tissue and bony structure once buried in the truncation artifacts. For the phantom study, the proposed method reduced the relative RMSE from 15% (original images) to 11%, and improved the UQI from 0.34 to 0.80. A discriminative dictionary representation method was developed to mitigate CT truncation artifacts directly in the DICOM image domain. Both phantom and human subject studies demonstrated that the proposed method can effectively reduce truncation artifacts without access to projection data. © 2016 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

The absent bow tie sign in bucket-handle tears of the menisci in the knee.

PubMed

Helms, C A; Laorr, A; Cannon, W D

1998-01-01

Bucket-handle tears of the menisci are one of the most frequently missed diagnoses in MR examinations of the knee. This article describes the "absent bow tie sign," which can be used to identify bucket-handle tears on routine MR examinations of the knee. The arthroscopic surgical reports (n = 350) from a single orthopedic surgeon's practice during a 24-month period were examined for patients who had a diagnosis of bucket-handle tear and who underwent MR imaging before surgery (n = 32). The MR examinations were retrospectively evaluated for the presence of a bow tie sign. The bow tie sign was considered normal when two sagittal images showed the body segment (a bow tie appearance). The bow tie sign was considered abnormal, consistent with a bucket-handle tear, when only one or no body segment was seen (the absent bow tie sign). Coronal images were evaluated for a truncated meniscus. Also, each MR examination was scrutinized for a displaced fragment and a double posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) sign. Thirty-three bucket-handle tears were found at arthroscopy in 32 patients. One patient had tears of the medial and lateral menisci. The absent bow tie sign was seen in 32 of the 33 cases (sensitivity, 97%) and correlated with the medial or lateral meniscus that was reported torn at arthroscopy. The single false-negative result occurred in a patient with a nondisplaced bucket-handle tear. The findings in 31 contralateral normal menisci were all negative for an absent bow tie sign (specificity, 100%). A displaced fragment was found in 30 (94%) of 32 cases. The coronal images showed a truncated meniscus in 21 (64%) of 33 cases. A double PCL sign was seen in 10 (30%) of 33 cases. The absent bow tie sign is an easily applied finding that can be used with good sensitivity to diagnose bucket-handle tears of the menisci on MR imaging. This sign has a higher accuracy rate than other findings common with bucket-handle tears, such as displaced fragments, a truncated appearance of the meniscus on coronal images, and the double PCL sign.

Use of the binomial distribution to predict impairment: application in a nonclinical sample.

PubMed

Axelrod, Bradley N; Wall, Jacqueline R; Estes, Bradley W

2008-01-01

A mathematical model based on the binomial theory was developed to illustrate when abnormal score variations occur by chance in a multitest battery (Ingraham & Aiken, 1996). It has been successfully used as a comparison for obtained test scores in clinical samples, but not in nonclinical samples. In the current study, this model has been applied to demographically corrected scores on the Halstead-Reitan Neuropsychological Test Battery, obtained from a sample of 94 nonclinical college students. Results found that 15% of the sample had impairments suggested by the Halstead Impairment Index, using criteria established by Reitan and Wolfson (1993). In addition, one-half of the sample obtained impaired scores on one or two tests. These results were compared to that predicted by the binomial model and found to be consistent. The model therefore serves as a useful resource for clinicians considering the probability of impaired test performance.

Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates.

PubMed

Linning, Shannon J; Andresen, Martin A; Brantingham, Paul J

2017-12-01

This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of ordinary least squares (OLS; Vancouver, British Columbia) and negative binomial (Ottawa, Ontario) regressions were employed to examine the corresponding temporal patterns of property crime in Vancouver (2003-2013) and Ottawa (2006-2008). Moreover, both aggregate and disaggregate models were run to examine whether different weather and temporal variables had a distinctive impact on particular offences. Overall, results suggest that cities that experience greater variations in weather throughout the year have more distinct increases of property offences in the summer months and that different climate variables affect certain crime types, thus advocating for disaggregate analysis in the future.

The effect of laminar air flow and door openings on operating room contamination.

PubMed

Smith, Eric B; Raphael, Ibrahim J; Maltenfort, Mitchell G; Honsawek, Sittisak; Dolan, Kyle; Younkins, Elizabeth A

2013-10-01

We evaluate the association of laminar airflow (LAF) and OR traffic with intraoperative contamination rates. Two sterile basins were placed in each room during 81 cases, one inside and one outside the LAF. One Replicate Organism Detection and Counting (RODAC) plate from each basin was sent for culture at successive 30-minute intervals from incision time until wound closure. At successive 30-minute intervals more plates were contaminated outside than inside the LAF. A negative binomial model showed that the bacteria colony forming units (CFU) depended on whether there were any door openings (P=0.02) and the presence of LAF (P=0.003). LAF decreases CFU by 36.6%. LAF independently reduces the risk of contamination and microbial counts for surgeries lasting 90 minutes or less. © 2013.

The impact of texting bans on motor vehicle crash-related hospitalizations.

PubMed

Ferdinand, Alva O; Menachemi, Nir; Blackburn, Justin L; Sen, Bisakha; Nelson, Leonard; Morrisey, Michael

2015-05-01

We used a panel design and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 19 states between 2003 and 2010 to examine the impact of texting bans on crash-related hospitalizations. We conducted conditional negative binomial regressions with state, year, and month fixed effects to examine changes in crash-related hospitalizations in states after the enactment of a texting ban relative to those in states without such bans. Results indicate that texting bans were associated with a 7% reduction in crash-related hospitalizations among all age groups. Texting bans were significantly associated with reductions in hospitalizations among those aged 22 to 64 years and those aged 65 years or older. Marginal reductions were seen among adolescents. States that have not passed strict texting bans should consider doing so.

Epidemiological study of the intestinal helminths of wild boar (Sus scrofa) and mouflon (Ovis gmelini musimon) in central Italy.

PubMed

Magi, M; Bertani, M; Dell'Omodarme, M; Prati, M C

2002-12-01

Since 1995 the population of wild ungulates increased significantly in the "Parco provinciale dei Monti Livornesi" (Livorno, Tuscany, Central Italy). We studied the intestinal macroparasites of two hosts, the wild boar (Sus scrofa) and the mouflon (Ovis gmelini musimon). In the case of wild boars we found a dominant parasite species, Globocephalus urosubulatus. For this parasite the frequency distribution of the number of parasites per host agrees with a negative binomial distribution. There is not a significant correlation between the age of the animals and the parasitosis. Furthermore the mean parasite burden of male and female wild boars does not differ significantly. In the case of mouflons we found a dominant parasite species Nematodirus filicollis with Trichuris ovis as codominant species.

Misconduct Within the "Four Walls": Does Organizational Justice Matter in Explaining Prison Officers' Misconduct and Job Stress?

PubMed

Boateng, Francis D; Hsieh, Ming-Li

2018-06-01

Primarily, this article examines the role of organizational justice in understanding prison officers' behavior. The authors surveyed 169 correctional officers across five correctional facilities in Ghana to explore the role of three organizational justice dimensions in prison misconduct and job stress. Results from the negative binomial and ordinal logistic analyses revealed the significant contributions of two dimensions of organizational justice in explaining misconduct and stress among officers. Officers who had higher perceptions of distributive fairness and interaction in the organization had lower odds of receiving misconduct-related complaints. Also, greater interaction was found to be associated with reduced job stress among prison officers. In addition, several officers' characteristics were found to predict the number of times officers received misconduct complaints.

Linking crime guns: the impact of ballistics imaging technology on the productivity of the Boston Police Department's Ballistics Unit.

PubMed

Braga, Anthony A; Pierce, Glenn L

2004-07-01

Ballistics imaging technology has received national attention as a potent tool for moving the law enforcement response to violent gun criminals forward by linking multiple crime scenes to one firearm. This study examines the impact of ballistics imaging technology on the productivity of the Boston Police Department's Ballistics Unit. Using negative binomial regression models to analyze times series data on ballistics matches, we find that ballistics imaging technology was associated with a more than sixfold increase in the monthly number of ballistics matches made by the Boston Police Department's Ballistics Unit. Cost-effectiveness estimates and qualitative evidence also suggest that ballistics imaging technology allows law enforcement agencies to make hits that would not have been possible using traditional ballistics methods.

Civic communities and urban violence.

PubMed

Doucet, Jessica M; Lee, Matthew R

2015-07-01

Civic communities have a spirit of entrepreneurialism, a locally invested population and an institutional structure fostering civic engagement. Prior research, mainly confined to studying rural communities and fairly large geographic areas, has demonstrated that civic communities have lower rates of violence. The current study analyzes the associations between the components of civic communities and homicide rates for New Orleans neighborhoods (census tracts) in the years following Hurricane Katrina. Results from negative binomial regression models adjusting for spatial autocorrelation reveal that community homicide rates are lower where an entrepreneurial business climate is more pronounced and where there is more local investment. Additionally, an interaction between the availability of civic institutions and resource disadvantage reveals that the protective effects of civic institutions are only evident in disadvantaged communities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bursts of Self-Conscious Emotions in the Daily Lives of Emerging Adults.

PubMed

Conroy, David E; Ram, Nilam; Pincus, Aaron L; Rebar, Amanda L

Self-conscious emotions play a role in regulating daily achievement strivings, social behavior, and health, but little is known about the processes underlying their daily manifestation. Emerging adults (n = 182) completed daily diaries for eight days and multilevel models were estimated to evaluate whether, how much, and why their emotions varied from day-to-day. Within-person variation in authentic pride was normally-distributed across people and days whereas the other emotions were burst-like and characterized by zero-inflated, negative binomial distributions. Perceiving social interactions as generally communal increased the odds of hubristic pride activation and reduced the odds of guilt activation; daily communal behavior reduced guilt intensity. Results illuminated processes through which meaning about the self-in-relation-to-others is constructed during a critical period of development.

Infant Mortality and Income in 4 World Cities: New York, London, Paris, and Tokyo

PubMed Central

Rodwin, Victor G.; Neuberg, Leland G.

2005-01-01

Objectives. We investigated the association between average income or deprivation and infant mortality rate across neighborhoods of 4 world cities. Methods. Using a maximum likelihood negative binomial regression model that controls for births, we analyzed data for 1988–1992 and 1993–1997. Results. In Manhattan, for both periods, we found an association (.05% significance level) between income and infant mortality. In Tokyo, for both periods, and in Paris and London for period 1, we found none (5% significance level). For period 2, the association just missed statistical significance for Paris, whereas for London it was significant (5% level). Conclusions. In stark contrast to Tokyo, Paris, and London, the association of income and infant mortality rate was strongly evident in Manhattan. PMID:15623865

The Impact of Texting Bans on Motor Vehicle Crash–Related Hospitalizations

PubMed Central

Menachemi, Nir; Blackburn, Justin L.; Sen, Bisakha; Nelson, Leonard; Morrisey, Michael

2015-01-01

We used a panel design and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 19 states between 2003 and 2010 to examine the impact of texting bans on crash-related hospitalizations. We conducted conditional negative binomial regressions with state, year, and month fixed effects to examine changes in crash-related hospitalizations in states after the enactment of a texting ban relative to those in states without such bans. Results indicate that texting bans were associated with a 7% reduction in crash-related hospitalizations among all age groups. Texting bans were significantly associated with reductions in hospitalizations among those aged 22 to 64 years and those aged 65 years or older. Marginal reductions were seen among adolescents. States that have not passed strict texting bans should consider doing so. PMID:25790409

The role of N1 domain on the activity, stability, substrate specificity and raw starch binding of amylopullulanase of the extreme thermophile Geobacillus thermoleovorans.

PubMed

Nisha, M; Satyanarayana, T

2015-07-01

In order to understand the role of N1 domain (1-257 aa) in the amylopullulanase (gt-apu) of the extremely thermophilic bacterium Geobacillus thermoleovorans NP33, N1 deletion construct (gt-apuΔN) has been generated and expressed in Escherichia coli. The truncated amylopullulanase (gt-apuΔN) exhibits similar pH and temperature optima like gt-apu, but enhanced thermostability. The gt-apuΔN has greater hydrolytic action and specific activity on pullulan than gt-apu. The k cat (starch and pullulan) and K m (starch) values of gt-apuΔN increased, while K m (pullulan) decreased. The enzyme upon N1 deletion hydrolyzed maltotetraose as the smallest substrate in contrast to maltopentaose of gt-apu. The role of N1 domain of gt-apu in raw starch binding has been confirmed, for the first time, based on deletion and Langmuir-Hinshelwood kinetics. Furthermore, N1 domain appears to exert a negative influence on the thermostability of gt-apu because N1 truncation significantly improves thermostability.

A Recombinant Raccoon Poxvirus Vaccine Expressing both Yersinia pestis F1 and Truncated V Antigens Protects Animals against Lethal Plague

PubMed Central

Rocke, Tonie E.; Kingstad-Bakke, Brock; Berlier, Willy; Osorio, Jorge E.

2014-01-01

In previous studies, we demonstrated in mice and prairie dogs that simultaneous administration of two recombinant raccoon poxviruses (rRCN) expressing Yersinia pestis antigens (F1 and V307—a truncated version of the V protein) provided superior protection against plague challenge compared to individual single antigen constructs. To reduce costs of vaccine production and facilitate implementation of a sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) control program for prairie dogs, a dual antigen construct is more desirable. Here we report the construction and characterization of a novel RCN-vectored vaccine that simultaneously expresses both F1 and V307 antigens. This dual antigen vaccine provided similar levels of protection against plague in both mice and prairie dogs as compared to simultaneous administration of the two single antigen constructs and was also shown to protect mice against an F1 negative strain of Y. pestis. The equivalent safety, immunogenicity and efficacy profile of the dual RCN-F1/V307 construct warrants further evaluation in field efficacy studies in sylvatic plague endemic areas. PMID:26344891

Modeling absolute differences in life expectancy with a censored skew-normal regression approach

PubMed Central

Clough-Gorr, Kerri; Zwahlen, Marcel

2015-01-01

Parameter estimates from commonly used multivariable parametric survival regression models do not directly quantify differences in years of life expectancy. Gaussian linear regression models give results in terms of absolute mean differences, but are not appropriate in modeling life expectancy, because in many situations time to death has a negative skewed distribution. A regression approach using a skew-normal distribution would be an alternative to parametric survival models in the modeling of life expectancy, because parameter estimates can be interpreted in terms of survival time differences while allowing for skewness of the distribution. In this paper we show how to use the skew-normal regression so that censored and left-truncated observations are accounted for. With this we model differences in life expectancy using data from the Swiss National Cohort Study and from official life expectancy estimates and compare the results with those derived from commonly used survival regression models. We conclude that a censored skew-normal survival regression approach for left-truncated observations can be used to model differences in life expectancy across covariates of interest. PMID:26339544

A recombinant raccoon poxvirus vaccine expressing both Yersinia pestis F1 and truncated V antigens protects animals against lethal plague.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rocke, Tonie E.; Kingstad-Bakke, B; Berlier, W; Osorio, J.E.

2014-01-01

In previous studies, we demonstrated in mice and prairie dogs that simultaneous administration of two recombinant raccoon poxviruses (rRCN) expressing Yersinia pestis antigens (F1 and V307-a truncated version of the V protein) provided superior protection against plague challenge compared to individual single antigen constructs. To reduce costs of vaccine production and facilitate implementation of a sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) control program for prairie dogs, a dual antigen construct is more desirable. Here we report the construction and characterization of a novel RCN-vectored vaccine that simultaneously expresses both F1 and V307 antigens. This dual antigen vaccine provided similar levels of protection against plague in both mice and prairie dogs as compared to simultaneous administration of the two single antigen constructs and was also shown to protect mice against an F1 negative strain of Y. pestis.. The equivalent safety, immunogenicity and efficacy profile of the dual RCN-F1/V307 construct warrants further evaluation in field efficacy studies in sylvatic plague endemic areas.

Gun control and suicide: the impact of state firearm regulations in the United States, 1995-2004.

PubMed

Rodríguez Andrés, Antonio; Hempstead, Katherine

2011-06-01

To empirically assess the impact of firearm regulation on male suicides. A negative binomial regression model was applied by using a panel of state level data for the years 1995-2004. The model was used to identify the association between several firearm regulations and male suicide rates. Our empirical analysis suggest that firearms regulations which function to reduce overall gun availability have a significant deterrent effect on male suicide, while regulations that seek to prohibit high risk individuals from owning firearms have a lesser effect. Restricting access to lethal means has been identified as an effective approach to suicide prevention, and firearms regulations are one way to reduce gun availability. The analysis suggests that gun control measures such as permit and licensing requirements have a negative effect on suicide rates among males. Since there is considerable heterogeneity among states with regard to gun control, these results suggest that there are opportunities for many states to reduce suicide by expanding their firearms regulations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Healthy Immigrant Effect on Mental Health: Determinants and Implications for Mental Health Policy in Spain.

PubMed

Rivera, Berta; Casal, Bruno; Currais, Luis

2016-07-01

Since the mid-1990s, Spain has started to receive a great number of migrant populations. The migration process can have a significantly negative impact on mental health of immigrant population and, consequently, generate implications for the delivery of mental health services. The aim of this article is to provide empirical evidence to demonstrate that the mental health of immigrants in Spain deteriorates the longer they are resident in the country. An empirical approach to this relationship is carried out with data from the National Survey of Health of Spain 2011-2012 and poisson and negative binomial models. Results show that immigrants who reside <10 years in Spain appear to be in a better state of mental health than that observed for the national population. Studying health disparities in the foreign population and its evolution are relevant to ensure the population's access to health services and care. The need for further research is especially true in the case of the immigrant population's mental health in Spain because there is scant evidence available on their situation.

Association between Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and occipital periventricular hyperintensities in a group of Chinese patients: an observational study.

PubMed

Duan, Dazhi; Shen, Lin; Cui, Chun; Shu, Tongsheng; Zheng, Jian

2017-02-27

While occipital periventricular hyperintensities (OPVHs) are among the most common mild white matter hyperintensities, the clinical factors associated with OPVHs remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the role of clinical factors in development of pure OPVHs. This study included 97 patients with OPVHs and 73 healthy controls. Univariate analysis of clinical factors in OPVH patients and controls was followed by binomial logistic regression analysis to identify clinical factors significantly associated with OPVHs. Univariate analysis indicated that age, total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and apolipoprotein-B (Apo-B) levels differed significantly between the OPVH patients and controls (p < 0.05). Age and gender were correlated with OPVH scores (p < 0.05), while LDL-C, triglycerides, Apo-B and TC were anti-correlated with OPVHs scores (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that LDL-C is negatively correlated with OPVHs (p < 0.05), and age is positively correlated with OPVHs (p < 0.001). In summary, LDL-C was negatively and age was positively associated with OPVHs among Chinese patients in a hospital.

NLO renormalization in the Hamiltonian truncation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias-Miró, Joan; Rychkov, Slava; Vitale, Lorenzo G.

2017-09-01

Hamiltonian truncation (also known as "truncated spectrum approach") is a numerical technique for solving strongly coupled quantum field theories, in which the full Hilbert space is truncated to a finite-dimensional low-energy subspace. The accuracy of the method is limited only by the available computational resources. The renormalization program improves the accuracy by carefully integrating out the high-energy states, instead of truncating them away. In this paper, we develop the most accurate ever variant of Hamiltonian Truncation, which implements renormalization at the cubic order in the interaction strength. The novel idea is to interpret the renormalization procedure as a result of integrating out exactly a certain class of high-energy "tail states." We demonstrate the power of the method with high-accuracy computations in the strongly coupled two-dimensional quartic scalar theory and benchmark it against other existing approaches. Our work will also be useful for the future goal of extending Hamiltonian truncation to higher spacetime dimensions.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

resolution at T574 becomes ~ 23 km T382 Spectral truncation equivalent to horizontal resolution ~37 km T254 Spectral truncation equivalent to horizontal resolution ~50-55 km T190 Spectral truncation equivalent to horizontal resolution ~70 km T126 Spectral truncation equivalent to horizontal resolution ~100 km UM Unified

Turbulence excited frequency domain damping measurement and truncation effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soovere, J.

1976-01-01

Existing frequency domain modal frequency and damping analysis methods are discussed. The effects of truncation in the Laplace and Fourier transform data analysis methods are described. Methods for eliminating truncation errors from measured damping are presented. Implications of truncation effects in fast Fourier transform analysis are discussed. Limited comparison with test data is presented.

Impact of degree truncation on the spread of a contagious process on networks.

PubMed

Harling, Guy; Onnela, Jukka-Pekka

2018-03-01

Understanding how person-to-person contagious processes spread through a population requires accurate information on connections between population members. However, such connectivity data, when collected via interview, is often incomplete due to partial recall, respondent fatigue or study design, e.g., fixed choice designs (FCD) truncate out-degree by limiting the number of contacts each respondent can report. Past research has shown how FCD truncation affects network properties, but its implications for predicted speed and size of spreading processes remain largely unexplored. To study the impact of degree truncation on predictions of spreading process outcomes, we generated collections of synthetic networks containing specific properties (degree distribution, degree-assortativity, clustering), and also used empirical social network data from 75 villages in Karnataka, India. We simulated FCD using various truncation thresholds and ran a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) process on each network. We found that spreading processes propagated on truncated networks resulted in slower and smaller epidemics, with a sudden decrease in prediction accuracy at a level of truncation that varied by network type. Our results have implications beyond FCD to truncation due to any limited sampling from a larger network. We conclude that knowledge of network structure is important for understanding the accuracy of predictions of process spread on degree truncated networks.

Area characteristics and admission rates of people with schizophrenia and affective disorders in a German rural catchment area.

PubMed

Losert, C; Schmauß, M; Becker, T; Kilian, R

2012-12-01

Studies in urban areas identified environmental risk factors for mental illness, but little research on this topic has been performed in rural areas. Hospital admission rates were computed for 174 rural municipalities in the catchment area of the state psychiatric hospital in Günzburg in years 2006 to 2009 and combined with structural and socio-economic data. Relationships of overall and diagnosis-specific admission rates with municipality characteristics were analysed by means of negative binomial regression models. Admission rates of patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia and affective disorder combined decrease with increasing population growth, population density, average income and green areas, while admission rates are positively correlated with commuter balance, income inequality, unemployment rates and traffic areas. Admission rates for schizophrenia are negatively related to population growth, average income and agricultural areas, but positively related to mobility index, income inequality and unemployment rate. Admission rates for affective disorders are negatively related to population growth, population density, average income and green areas, while higher admission rates are correlated with commuter balance, high income inequality, unemployment rate and traffic-related areas. Effects of wealth, economic inequality, population density and structural area characteristics influence psychiatric admission rates also in rural areas.

Design, Construction and Cloning of Truncated ORF2 and tPAsp-PADRE-Truncated ORF2 Gene Cassette From Hepatitis E Virus in the pVAX1 Expression Vector

PubMed Central

Farshadpour, Fatemeh; Makvandi, Manoochehr; Taherkhani, Reza

2015-01-01

Background: Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) is the causative agent of enterically transmitted acute hepatitis and has high mortality rate of up to 30% among pregnant women. Therefore, development of a novel vaccine is a desirable goal. Objectives: The aim of this study was to construct tPAsp-PADRE-truncated open reading frame 2 (ORF2) and truncated ORF2 DNA plasmid, which can assist future studies with the preparation of an effective vaccine against Hepatitis E Virus. Materials and Methods: A synthetic codon-optimized gene cassette encoding tPAsp-PADRE-truncated ORF2 protein was designed, constructed and analyzed by some bioinformatics software. Furthermore, a codon-optimized truncated ORF2 gene was amplified by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), with a specific primer from the previous construct. The constructs were sub-cloned in the pVAX1 expression vector and finally expressed in eukaryotic cells. Results: Sequence analysis and bioinformatics studies of the codon-optimized gene cassette revealed that codon adaptation index (CAI), GC content, and frequency of optimal codon usage (Fop) value were improved, and performance of the secretory signal was confirmed. Cloning and sub-cloning of the tPAsp-PADRE-truncated ORF2 gene cassette and truncated ORF2 gene were confirmed by colony PCR, restriction enzymes digestion and DNA sequencing of the recombinant plasmids pVAX-tPAsp-PADRE-truncated ORF2 (aa 112-660) and pVAX-truncated ORF2 (aa 112-660). The expression of truncated ORF2 protein in eukaryotic cells was approved by an Immunofluorescence assay (IFA) and the reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) method. Conclusions: The results of this study demonstrated that the tPAsp-PADRE-truncated ORF2 gene cassette and the truncated ORF2 gene in recombinant plasmids are successfully expressed in eukaryotic cells. The immunogenicity of the two recombinant plasmids with different formulations will be evaluated as a novel DNA vaccine in future investigations. PMID:26865938

On the Relationship between Molecular Hit Rates in High-Throughput Screening and Molecular Descriptors.

PubMed

Hansson, Mari; Pemberton, John; Engkvist, Ola; Feierberg, Isabella; Brive, Lars; Jarvis, Philip; Zander-Balderud, Linda; Chen, Hongming

2014-06-01

High-throughput screening (HTS) is widely used in the pharmaceutical industry to identify novel chemical starting points for drug discovery projects. The current study focuses on the relationship between molecular hit rate in recent in-house HTS and four common molecular descriptors: lipophilicity (ClogP), size (heavy atom count, HEV), fraction of sp(3)-hybridized carbons (Fsp3), and fraction of molecular framework (f(MF)). The molecular hit rate is defined as the fraction of times the molecule has been assigned as active in the HTS campaigns where it has been screened. Beta-binomial statistical models were built to model the molecular hit rate as a function of these descriptors. The advantage of the beta-binomial statistical models is that the correlation between the descriptors is taken into account. Higher degree polynomial terms of the descriptors were also added into the beta-binomial statistic model to improve the model quality. The relative influence of different molecular descriptors on molecular hit rate has been estimated, taking into account that the descriptors are correlated to each other through applying beta-binomial statistical modeling. The results show that ClogP has the largest influence on the molecular hit rate, followed by Fsp3 and HEV. f(MF) has only a minor influence besides its correlation with the other molecular descriptors. © 2013 Society for Laboratory Automation and Screening.

The Sequential Probability Ratio Test: An efficient alternative to exact binomial testing for Clean Water Act 303(d) evaluation.

PubMed

Chen, Connie; Gribble, Matthew O; Bartroff, Jay; Bay, Steven M; Goldstein, Larry

2017-05-01

The United States's Clean Water Act stipulates in section 303(d) that states must identify impaired water bodies for which total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) of pollution inputs into water bodies are developed. Decision-making procedures about how to list, or delist, water bodies as impaired, or not, per Clean Water Act 303(d) differ across states. In states such as California, whether or not a particular monitoring sample suggests that water quality is impaired can be regarded as a binary outcome variable, and California's current regulatory framework invokes a version of the exact binomial test to consolidate evidence across samples and assess whether the overall water body complies with the Clean Water Act. Here, we contrast the performance of California's exact binomial test with one potential alternative, the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT). The SPRT uses a sequential testing framework, testing samples as they become available and evaluating evidence as it emerges, rather than measuring all the samples and calculating a test statistic at the end of the data collection process. Through simulations and theoretical derivations, we demonstrate that the SPRT on average requires fewer samples to be measured to have comparable Type I and Type II error rates as the current fixed-sample binomial test. Policymakers might consider efficient alternatives such as SPRT to current procedure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Football fever: goal distributions and non-Gaussian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bittner, E.; Nußbaumer, A.; Janke, W.; Weigel, M.

2009-02-01

Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the not purely random, but highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the probability distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams. As it turns out, especially the tails of the distributions are not well described by the Poissonian or binomial model resulting from the assumption of uncorrelated random events. Instead, a good effective description of the data is provided by less basic distributions such as the negative binomial one or the probability densities of extreme value statistics. To understand this behavior from a microscopical point of view, however, no waiting time problem or extremal process need be invoked. Instead, modifying the Bernoulli random process underlying the Poissonian model to include a simple component of self-affirmation seems to describe the data surprisingly well and allows to understand the observed deviation from Gaussian statistics. The phenomenological distributions used before can be understood as special cases within this framework. We analyzed historical football score data from many leagues in Europe as well as from international tournaments, including data from all past tournaments of the “FIFA World Cup” series, and found the proposed models to be applicable rather universally. In particular, here we analyze the results of the German women’s premier football league and consider the two separate German men’s premier leagues in the East and West during the cold war times as well as the unified league after 1990 to see how scoring in football and the component of self-affirmation depend on cultural and political circumstances.

Higher moments of net-proton multiplicity distributions in a heavy-ion event pile-up scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, P.; Mishra, D. K.

2017-10-01

High-luminosity modern accelerators, like the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), inherently have event pile-up scenarios which significantly contribute to physics events as a background. While state-of-the-art tracking algorithms and detector concepts take care of these event pile-up scenarios, several offline analytical techniques are used to remove such events from the physics analysis. It is still difficult to identify the remaining pile-up events in an event sample for physics analysis. Since the fraction of these events is significantly small, it may not be as serious of an issue for other analyses as it would be for an event-by-event analysis. Particularly when the characteristics of the multiplicity distribution are observable, one needs to be very careful. In the present work, we demonstrate how a small fraction of residual pile-up events can change the moments and their ratios of an event-by-event net-proton multiplicity distribution, which are sensitive to the dynamical fluctuations due to the QCD critical point. For this study, we assume that the individual event-by-event proton and antiproton multiplicity distributions follow Poisson, negative binomial, or binomial distributions. We observe a significant effect in cumulants and their ratios of net-proton multiplicity distributions due to pile-up events, particularly at lower energies. It might be crucial to estimate the fraction of pile-up events in the data sample while interpreting the experimental observable for the critical point.

One-sided truncated sequential t-test: application to natural resource sampling

Treesearch

Gary W. Fowler; William G. O' Regan

1974-01-01

A new procedure for constructing one-sided truncated sequential t-tests and its application to natural resource sampling are described. Monte Carlo procedures were used to develop a series of one-sided truncated sequential t-tests and the associated approximations to the operating characteristic and average sample number functions. Different truncation points and...

Computing correct truncated excited state wavefunctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacalis, N. C.; Xiong, Z.; Zang, J.; Karaoulanis, D.

2016-12-01

We demonstrate that, if a wave function's truncated expansion is small, then the standard excited states computational method, of optimizing one "root" of a secular equation, may lead to an incorrect wave function - despite the correct energy according to the theorem of Hylleraas, Undheim and McDonald - whereas our proposed method [J. Comput. Meth. Sci. Eng. 8, 277 (2008)] (independent of orthogonality to lower lying approximants) leads to correct reliable small truncated wave functions. The demonstration is done in He excited states, using truncated series expansions in Hylleraas coordinates, as well as standard configuration-interaction truncated expansions.

Does the name really matter? The importance of botanical nomenclature and plant taxonomy in biomedical research.

PubMed

Bennett, Bradley C; Balick, Michael J

2014-03-28

Medical research on plant-derived compounds requires a breadth of expertise from field to laboratory and clinical skills. Too often basic botanical skills are evidently lacking, especially with respect to plant taxonomy and botanical nomenclature. Binomial and familial names, synonyms and author citations are often misconstrued. The correct botanical name, linked to a vouchered specimen, is the sine qua non of phytomedical research. Without the unique identifier of a proper binomial, research cannot accurately be linked to the existing literature. Perhaps more significant, is the ambiguity of species determinations that ensues of from poor taxonomic practices. This uncertainty, not surprisingly, obstructs reproducibility of results-the cornerstone of science. Based on our combined six decades of experience with medicinal plants, we discuss the problems of inaccurate taxonomy and botanical nomenclature in biomedical research. This problems appear all too frequently in manuscripts and grant applications that we review and they extend to the published literature. We also review the literature on the importance of taxonomy in other disciplines that relate to medicinal plant research. In most cases, questions regarding orthography, synonymy, author citations, and current family designations of most plant binomials can be resolved using widely-available online databases and other electronic resources. Some complex problems require consultation with a professional plant taxonomist, which also is important for accurate identification of voucher specimens. Researchers should provide the currently accepted binomial and complete author citation, provide relevant synonyms, and employ the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group III family name. Taxonomy is a vital adjunct not only to plant-medicine research but to virtually every field of science. Medicinal plant researchers can increase the precision and utility of their investigations by following sound practices with respect to botanical nomenclature. Correct spellings, accepted binomials, author citations, synonyms, and current family designations can readily be found on reliable online databases. When questions arise, researcher should consult plant taxonomists. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Problem drinking among Flemish students: beverage type, early drinking onset and negative personal & social consequences.

PubMed

De Bruyn, Sara; Wouters, Edwin; Ponnet, Koen; Van Damme, Joris; Maes, Lea; Van Hal, Guido

2018-02-12

Although alcohol is socially accepted in most Western societies, studies are clear about its associated negative consequences, especially among university and college students. Studies on the relationship between alcohol-related consequences and both beverage type and drinking onset, however, are scarce, especially in a European context. The aim of this research was, therefore, twofold: (1) What is the relationship between beverage type and the negative consequences experienced by students? and (2) Are these consequences determined by early drinking onset? We will examine these questions within the context of a wide range of alcohol-related consequences. The analyses are based on data collected by the inter-university project 'Head in the clouds?', measuring alcohol use among students in Flanders (Belgium). In total, a large dataset consisting of information from 19,253 anonymously participating students was available. Negative consequences were measured using a shortened version of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey (CADS_D). Data were analysed using negative binomial regression. Results vary depending on the type of alcohol-related consequences: Personal negative consequences occur frequently among daily beer drinkers. However, a high rate of social negative consequences was recorded for both daily beer drinkers and daily spirits drinkers. Finally, early drinking onset was significantly associated with both personal and social negative consequences, and this association was especially strong between beer and spirits drinking onset and social negative consequences. Numerous negative consequences, both personal and social, are related to frequent beer and spirits drinking. Our findings indicate a close association between drinking beer and personal negative consequences as well as between drinking beer and/or spirits and social negative consequences. Similarly, early drinking onset has a major influence on the rates of both personal and social negative consequences. The earlier students started drinking, the more negative consequences they experienced during college or university. Several (policy) interventions are discussed. This study is the first to incorporate detailed information on both beverage type and drinking onset, and its associated negative consequences, as measured by the CADS_D, in a large student population.

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960–2006

PubMed Central

Mantilla, Gilma; Oliveros, Hugo; Barnston, Anthony G

2009-01-01

Background Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. Methods Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. Results The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. Conclusion Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960–2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models. PMID:19133152

Effect of Breastfeeding Promotion on Early Childhood Caries and Breastfeeding Duration among 5 Year Old Children in Eastern Uganda: A Cluster Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

Birungi, Nancy; Fadnes, Lars T.; Okullo, Isaac; Kasangaki, Arabat; Nankabirwa, Victoria; Ndeezi, Grace; Tumwine, James K.; Tylleskär, Thorkild; Lie, Stein Atle; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug

2015-01-01

Background Although several studies have shown short term health benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), its long term consequences have not been studied extensively in low-income contexts. This study assessed the impact of an EBF promotion initiative for 6 months on early childhood caries (ECC) and breastfeeding duration in children aged 5 years in Mbale, Eastern Uganda. Methods Participants were recruited from the Ugandan site of the PROMISE- EBF cluster randomised trial (ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00397150). A total of 765 pregnant women from 24 clusters were included in the ratio 1:1 to receive peer counselled promotion of EBF as the intervention or standard of care. At the 5 year follow-up, ECC was recorded under field conditions using the World Health Organization’s decayed missing filled tooth (dmft) index. Adjusted negative binomial and linear regression were used in the analysis. Results Mean breastfeeding duration in the intervention and control groups (n=417) were 21.8 (CI 20.7–22.9) and 21.3(CI 20.7–21.9) months, respectively. The mean dmft was 1.5 (standard deviation [SD] 2.9) and 1.7 (SD 2.9) in the intervention and control groups, respectively. Corresponding prevalence estimates of ECC were 38% and 41%. Negative binomial regression analysis adjusted for cluster effects and loss-to-follow-up by inverse probability weights (IPW) showed an incidence-rate ratio (IRR) of 0.91 (95% CI 0.65–1.2). Comparing the effect of the trial arm on breastfeeding duration showed a difference in months of 0.48 (-0.72 to 1.7). Conclusion PROMISE EBF trial did not impact on early childhood caries or breastfeeding duration at 5 years of age. This study contributes to the body of evidence that promotion of exclusive breastfeeding does not raise oral health concerns. However, the high burden of caries calls for efforts to improve the oral health condition in this setting. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00397150 PMID:25938681

Reducing falls after hospital discharge: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial evaluating an individualised multimodal falls education programme for older adults.

PubMed

Hill, Anne-Marie; Etherton-Beer, Christopher; McPhail, Steven M; Morris, Meg E; Flicker, Leon; Shorr, Ronald; Bulsara, Max; Lee, Den-Ching; Francis-Coad, Jacqueline; Waldron, Nicholas; Boudville, Amanda; Haines, Terry

2017-02-02

Older adults frequently fall after discharge from hospital. Older people may have low self-perceived risk of falls and poor knowledge about falls prevention. The primary aim of the study is to evaluate the effect of providing tailored falls prevention education in addition to usual care on falls rates in older people after discharge from hospital compared to providing a social intervention in addition to usual care. The 'Back to My Best' study is a multisite, single blind, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with blinded outcome assessment and intention-to-treat analysis, adhering to CONSORT guidelines. Patients (n=390) (aged 60 years or older; score more than 7/10 on the Abbreviated Mental Test Score; discharged to community settings) from aged care rehabilitation wards in three hospitals will be recruited and randomly assigned to one of two groups. Participants allocated to the control group shall receive usual care plus a social visit. Participants allocated to the experimental group shall receive usual care and a falls prevention programme incorporating a video, workbook and individualised follow-up from an expert health professional to foster capability and motivation to engage in falls prevention strategies. The primary outcome is falls rates in the first 6 months after discharge, analysed using negative binomial regression with adjustment for participant's length of observation in the study. Secondary outcomes are injurious falls rates, the proportion of people who become fallers, functional status and health-related quality of life. Healthcare resource use will be captured from four sources for 6 months after discharge. The study is powered to detect a 30% relative reduction in the rate of falls (negative binomial incidence ratio 0.70) for a control rate of 0.80 falls per person over 6 months. Results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at conferences worldwide. This study is approved by hospital and university Human Research Ethics Committees. ACTRN12615000784516. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Maternal and Child Supplementation with Lipid-Based Nutrient Supplements, but Not Child Supplementation Alone, Decreases Self-Reported Household Food Insecurity in Some Settings

PubMed Central

Ayifah, Emmanuel; Arimond, Mary; Arnold, Charles D; Cummins, Joseph; Matias, Susana L; Ashorn, Ulla; Lartey, Anna; Maleta, Kenneth M; Vosti, Stephen A; Dewey, Kathryn G

2017-01-01

Background: It is unknown whether self-reported measures of household food insecurity change in response to food-based nutrient supplementation. Objective: We assessed the impacts of providing lipid-based nutrient supplements (LNSs) to women during pregnancy and postpartum and/or to their children on self-reported household food insecurity in Malawi [DOSE and DYAD trial in Malawi (DYAD-M)], Ghana [DYAD trial in Ghana (DYAD-G)], and Bangladesh [Rang-Din Nutrition Study (RDNS) trial]. Methods: Longitudinal household food-insecurity data were collected during 3 individually randomized trials and 1 cluster-randomized trial testing the efficacy or effectiveness of LNSs (generally 118 kcal/d). Seasonally adjusted Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) scores were constructed for 1127 DOSE households, 732 DYAD-M households, 1109 DYAD-G households, and 3671 RDNS households. The impact of providing LNSs to women during pregnancy and the first 6 mo postpartum and/or to their children from 6 to 18–24 mo on seasonally adjusted HFIAS scores was assessed by using negative binomial models (DOSE, DYAD-M, and DYAD-G trials) and mixed-effect negative binomial models (RDNS trial). Results: In the DOSE and DYAD-G trials, seasonally adjusted HFIAS scores were not different between the LNS and non-LNS groups. In the DYAD-M trial, the average household food-insecurity scores were 14% lower (P = 0.01) in LNS households than in non-LNS households. In the RDNS trial, compared with non-LNS households, food-insecurity scores were 17% lower (P = 0.02) during pregnancy and the first 6 mo postpartum and 15% lower (P = 0.02) at 6–24 mo postpartum in LNS households. Conclusions: The daily provision of LNSs to mothers and their children throughout much of the “first 1000 d” may improve household food security in some settings, which could be viewed as an additional benefit that may accrue in households should policy makers choose to invest in LNSs to promote child growth and development. These trials were registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00945698 (DOSE) NCT01239693 (DYAD-M), NCT00970866 (DYAD-G) and NCT01715038 (RDNS). PMID:28978680

An empirical tool to evaluate the safety of cyclists: Community based, macro-level collision prediction models using negative binomial regression.

PubMed

Wei, Feng; Lovegrove, Gordon

2013-12-01

Today, North American governments are more willing to consider compact neighborhoods with increased use of sustainable transportation modes. Bicycling, one of the most effective modes for short trips with distances less than 5km is being encouraged. However, as vulnerable road users (VRUs), cyclists are more likely to be injured when involved in collisions. In order to create a safe road environment for them, evaluating cyclists' road safety at a macro level in a proactive way is necessary. In this paper, different generalized linear regression methods for collision prediction model (CPM) development are reviewed and previous studies on micro-level and macro-level bicycle-related CPMs are summarized. On the basis of insights gained in the exploration stage, this paper also reports on efforts to develop negative binomial models for bicycle-auto collisions at a community-based, macro-level. Data came from the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), of British Columbia, Canada. The model results revealed two types of statistical associations between collisions and each explanatory variable: (1) An increase in bicycle-auto collisions is associated with an increase in total lane kilometers (TLKM), bicycle lane kilometers (BLKM), bus stops (BS), traffic signals (SIG), intersection density (INTD), and arterial-local intersection percentage (IALP). (2) A decrease in bicycle collisions was found to be associated with an increase in the number of drive commuters (DRIVE), and in the percentage of drive commuters (DRP). These results support our hypothesis that in North America, with its current low levels of bicycle use (<4%), we can initially expect to see an increase in bicycle collisions as cycle mode share increases. However, as bicycle mode share increases beyond some unknown 'critical' level, our hypothesis also predicts a net safety improvement. To test this hypothesis and to further explore the statistical relationships between bicycle mode split and overall road safety, future research needs to pursue further development and application of community-based, macro-level CPMs. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effects of health intervention programs and arsenic exposure on child mortality from acute lower respiratory infections in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Jochem, Warren C; Razzaque, Abdur; Root, Elisabeth Dowling

2016-09-01

Respiratory infections continue to be a public health threat, particularly to young children in developing countries. Understanding the geographic patterns of diseases and the role of potential risk factors can help improve future mitigation efforts. Toward this goal, this paper applies a spatial scan statistic combined with a zero-inflated negative-binomial regression to re-examine the impacts of a community-based treatment program on the geographic patterns of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) mortality in an area of rural Bangladesh. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water is also a serious threat to the health of children in this area, and the variation in exposure to arsenic must be considered when evaluating the health interventions. ALRI mortality data were obtained for children under 2 years old from 1989 to 1996 in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System. This study period covers the years immediately following the implementation of an ALRI control program. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was first used to simultaneously estimate mortality rates and the likelihood of no deaths in groups of related households while controlling for socioeconomic status, potential arsenic exposure, and access to care. Next a spatial scan statistic was used to assess the location and magnitude of clusters of ALRI mortality. The ZINB model was used to adjust the scan statistic for multiple social and environmental risk factors. The results of the ZINB models and spatial scan statistic suggest that the ALRI control program was successful in reducing child mortality in the study area. Exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water was not associated with increased mortality. Higher socioeconomic status also significantly reduced mortality rates, even among households who were in the treatment program area. Community-based ALRI interventions can be effective at reducing child mortality, though socioeconomic factors may continue to influence mortality patterns. The combination of spatial and non-spatial methods used in this paper has not been applied previously in the literature, and this study demonstrates the importance of such approaches for evaluating and improving public health intervention programs.

Comparing ELISA test-positive prevalence, risk factors and management recommendations for Johne's disease prevention between organic and conventional dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David

2015-11-01

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic, infectious disease in cattle. Between 2010 and 2013, a voluntary JD control program was successfully launched in Ontario, Canada, including a Risk Assessment and Management Plan (RAMP) and JD ELISA testing of the entire milking herd. Over the last decade, the organic dairy sector has been growing. However, organic farming regulations and philosophies may influence the risk for JD transmission on Ontario organic dairy farms. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate differences in JD ELISA test positive prevalence, risk factors for JD and recommendations for JD prevention between organic and conventional dairy herds in Ontario. RAMP results (i.e. RAMP scores and recommendations) and ELISA results were available for 2103 dairy herds, including 42 organic herds. If available, additional data on milk production, milk quality, and herd characteristics were gathered. Organic and conventional herds had a similar herd-level JD ELISA test-positive prevalence (26.2% and 27.2%, respectively). Organic herds (4.2%) had a higher within-herd JD ELISA test-positive prevalence compared to conventional herds (2.3%) if they had at least one JD test-positive animal on the farm. Organic farms had lower risk scores for biosecurity (9 points lower), and higher scores in the calving (7 points higher) and the calf-rearing management areas (4 points higher). After accounting for RAMP score, organic farms received fewer recommendations for the calving management area (Odds Ratio=0.41) and more recommendations in the adult cow management area (Odds Ratio=2.70). A zero-inflated negative binomial model was built with purchase of animals and the herd size included in the logistic portion of the model. Herd type (organic or conventional), colostrum and milk feeding practices, average bulk tank somatic cell count, and presence of non-Holstein breeds were included in the negative binomial portion of the model. Organic farms had a higher number of test positive animals (Count Ratio=2.02). Further research is necessary to investigate the apparent disconnect between risk factors and recommendations on organic dairy farms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maternal and Child Supplementation with Lipid-Based Nutrient Supplements, but Not Child Supplementation Alone, Decreases Self-Reported Household Food Insecurity in Some Settings.

PubMed

Adams, Katherine P; Ayifah, Emmanuel; Phiri, Thokozani E; Mridha, Malay K; Adu-Afarwuah, Seth; Arimond, Mary; Arnold, Charles D; Cummins, Joseph; Hussain, Sohrab; Kumwenda, Chiza; Matias, Susana L; Ashorn, Ulla; Lartey, Anna; Maleta, Kenneth M; Vosti, Stephen A; Dewey, Kathryn G

2017-12-01

Background: It is unknown whether self-reported measures of household food insecurity change in response to food-based nutrient supplementation. Objective: We assessed the impacts of providing lipid-based nutrient supplements (LNSs) to women during pregnancy and postpartum and/or to their children on self-reported household food insecurity in Malawi [DOSE and DYAD trial in Malawi (DYAD-M)], Ghana [DYAD trial in Ghana (DYAD-G)], and Bangladesh [Rang-Din Nutrition Study (RDNS) trial]. Methods: Longitudinal household food-insecurity data were collected during 3 individually randomized trials and 1 cluster-randomized trial testing the efficacy or effectiveness of LNSs (generally 118 kcal/d). Seasonally adjusted Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) scores were constructed for 1127 DOSE households, 732 DYAD-M households, 1109 DYAD-G households, and 3671 RDNS households. The impact of providing LNSs to women during pregnancy and the first 6 mo postpartum and/or to their children from 6 to 18-24 mo on seasonally adjusted HFIAS scores was assessed by using negative binomial models (DOSE, DYAD-M, and DYAD-G trials) and mixed-effect negative binomial models (RDNS trial). Results: In the DOSE and DYAD-G trials, seasonally adjusted HFIAS scores were not different between the LNS and non-LNS groups. In the DYAD-M trial, the average household food-insecurity scores were 14% lower ( P = 0.01) in LNS households than in non-LNS households. In the RDNS trial, compared with non-LNS households, food-insecurity scores were 17% lower ( P = 0.02) during pregnancy and the first 6 mo postpartum and 15% lower ( P = 0.02) at 6-24 mo postpartum in LNS households. Conclusions: The daily provision of LNSs to mothers and their children throughout much of the "first 1000 d" may improve household food security in some settings, which could be viewed as an additional benefit that may accrue in households should policy makers choose to invest in LNSs to promote child growth and development. These trials were registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00945698 (DOSE) NCT01239693 (DYAD-M), NCT00970866 (DYAD-G) and NCT01715038 (RDNS).

Reducing falls after hospital discharge: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial evaluating an individualised multimodal falls education programme for older adults

PubMed Central

Hill, Anne-Marie; Etherton-Beer, Christopher; McPhail, Steven M; Morris, Meg E; Flicker, Leon; Bulsara, Max; Lee, Den-Ching; Francis-Coad, Jacqueline; Waldron, Nicholas; Boudville, Amanda; Haines, Terry

2017-01-01

Introduction Older adults frequently fall after discharge from hospital. Older people may have low self-perceived risk of falls and poor knowledge about falls prevention. The primary aim of the study is to evaluate the effect of providing tailored falls prevention education in addition to usual care on falls rates in older people after discharge from hospital compared to providing a social intervention in addition to usual care. Methods and analyses The ‘Back to My Best’ study is a multisite, single blind, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with blinded outcome assessment and intention-to-treat analysis, adhering to CONSORT guidelines. Patients (n=390) (aged 60 years or older; score more than 7/10 on the Abbreviated Mental Test Score; discharged to community settings) from aged care rehabilitation wards in three hospitals will be recruited and randomly assigned to one of two groups. Participants allocated to the control group shall receive usual care plus a social visit. Participants allocated to the experimental group shall receive usual care and a falls prevention programme incorporating a video, workbook and individualised follow-up from an expert health professional to foster capability and motivation to engage in falls prevention strategies. The primary outcome is falls rates in the first 6 months after discharge, analysed using negative binomial regression with adjustment for participant's length of observation in the study. Secondary outcomes are injurious falls rates, the proportion of people who become fallers, functional status and health-related quality of life. Healthcare resource use will be captured from four sources for 6 months after discharge. The study is powered to detect a 30% relative reduction in the rate of falls (negative binomial incidence ratio 0.70) for a control rate of 0.80 falls per person over 6 months. Ethics and dissemination Results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at conferences worldwide. This study is approved by hospital and university Human Research Ethics Committees. Trial registration number ACTRN12615000784516. PMID:28153933

A Support Vector Machine Approach for Truncated Fingerprint Image Detection from Sweeping Fingerprint Sensors

PubMed Central

Chen, Chi-Jim; Pai, Tun-Wen; Cheng, Mox

2015-01-01

A sweeping fingerprint sensor converts fingerprints on a row by row basis through image reconstruction techniques. However, a built fingerprint image might appear to be truncated and distorted when the finger was swept across a fingerprint sensor at a non-linear speed. If the truncated fingerprint images were enrolled as reference targets and collected by any automated fingerprint identification system (AFIS), successful prediction rates for fingerprint matching applications would be decreased significantly. In this paper, a novel and effective methodology with low time computational complexity was developed for detecting truncated fingerprints in a real time manner. Several filtering rules were implemented to validate existences of truncated fingerprints. In addition, a machine learning method of supported vector machine (SVM), based on the principle of structural risk minimization, was applied to reject pseudo truncated fingerprints containing similar characteristics of truncated ones. The experimental result has shown that an accuracy rate of 90.7% was achieved by successfully identifying truncated fingerprint images from testing images before AFIS enrollment procedures. The proposed effective and efficient methodology can be extensively applied to all existing fingerprint matching systems as a preliminary quality control prior to construction of fingerprint templates. PMID:25835186

Adrenodoxin supports reactions catalyzed by microsomal steroidogenic cytochrome P450s

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pechurskaya, Tatiana A.; Harnastai, Ivan N.; Grabovec, Irina P.

2007-02-16

The interaction of adrenodoxin (Adx) and NADPH cytochrome P450 reductase (CPR) with human microsomal steroidogenic cytochrome P450s was studied. It is found that Adx, mitochondrial electron transfer protein, is able to support reactions catalyzed by human microsomal P450s: full length CYP17, truncated CYP17, and truncated CYP21. CPR, but not Adx, supports activity of truncated CYP19. Truncated and the full length CYP17s show distinct preference for electron donor proteins. Truncated CYP17 has higher activity with Adx compared to CPR. The alteration in preference to electron donor does not change product profile for truncated enzymes. The electrostatic contacts play a major rolemore » in the interaction of truncated CYP17 with either CPR or Adx. Similarly electrostatic contacts are predominant in the interaction of full length CYP17 with Adx. We speculate that Adx might serve as an alternative electron donor for CYP17 at the conditions of CPR deficiency in human.« less

Mutational analysis of foot and mouth disease virus nonstructural polyprotein 3AB-coding region to design a negative marker virus.

PubMed

Bhatt, Mukesh; Mohapatra, Jajati K; Pandey, Laxmi K; Mohanty, Nihar N; Das, Biswajit; Prusty, Bikash R; Pattnaik, Bramhadev

2018-01-02

Inactivated purified whole virus vaccines are used for control of foot and mouth disease (FMD). ELISAs detecting antibodies to the nonstructural proteins (NSP), a marker of infection, are primarily used to differentiate FMD virus (FMDV) infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA). However, such DIVA assays have a limitation to their specificity since residual NSPs present in the relatively impure vaccines are suspected to induce an NSP-antibody response in the repeatedly vaccinated animals. Epitope-deleted negative marker vaccine strategy seems to have an advantage over the conventional vaccines in identifying the infected animals with accuracy. NSP 3AB contains an abundance of immunodominant B-cell epitopes of diagnostic importance. This study addresses the feasibility of producing 3AB-truncated FMDV mutant as a potential negative marker vaccine candidate. An infectious cDNA clone of FMDV serotype Asia 1 strain was used to engineer an array of deletion mutations in the established antigenic domain of 3AB. The maximum length of deletion tolerated by the virus was found to be restricted to amino acid residues 87-144 in the C-terminal half of 3A protein along with deletion of the first two copies of 3B peptide. The 3AB-truncated marker virus (Asia 1 IND 491/1997Δ3A 87-144 3B 1,2 +FLAG) demonstrated infectivity titres comparable to that of the parental virus in BHK-21 (log 10 7.42 TCID 50 /ml) and LFBK-α V β 6 (log 10 8.30 TCID 50 /ml) cell monolayer culture. The protein fragment corresponding to the viable deletion in the 3AB region was expressed in a prokaryotic system to standardize a companion assay (3A 87-153 3B 1,2 I-ELISA) for the negative marker virus which showed reasonably high diagnostic sensitivity (96.9%) and specificity (100% for naïve and 97.1% for uninfected vaccinated samples). The marker virus and its companion ELISA designed in this study provide a basis to devise a marker vaccine strategy for FMD control. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A modified chain binomial model to analyse the ongoing measles epidemic in Greece, July 2017 to February 2018

PubMed Central

Lytras, Theodore; Georgakopoulou, Theano; Tsiodras, Sotirios

2018-01-01

Greece is currently experiencing a large measles outbreak, in the context of multiple similar outbreaks across Europe. We devised and applied a modified chain-binomial epidemic model, requiring very simple data, to estimate the transmission parameters of this outbreak. Model results indicate sustained measles transmission among the Greek Roma population, necessitating a targeted mass vaccination campaign to halt further spread of the epidemic. Our model may be useful for other countries facing similar measles outbreaks. PMID:29717695

A modified chain binomial model to analyse the ongoing measles epidemic in Greece, July 2017 to February 2018.

PubMed

Lytras, Theodore; Georgakopoulou, Theano; Tsiodras, Sotirios

2018-04-01

Greece is currently experiencing a large measles outbreak, in the context of multiple similar outbreaks across Europe. We devised and applied a modified chain-binomial epidemic model, requiring very simple data, to estimate the transmission parameters of this outbreak. Model results indicate sustained measles transmission among the Greek Roma population, necessitating a targeted mass vaccination campaign to halt further spread of the epidemic. Our model may be useful for other countries facing similar measles outbreaks.

Survival curve estimation with dependent left truncated data using Cox's model.

PubMed

Mackenzie, Todd

2012-10-19

The Kaplan-Meier and closely related Lynden-Bell estimators are used to provide nonparametric estimation of the distribution of a left-truncated random variable. These estimators assume that the left-truncation variable is independent of the time-to-event. This paper proposes a semiparametric method for estimating the marginal distribution of the time-to-event that does not require independence. It models the conditional distribution of the time-to-event given the truncation variable using Cox's model for left truncated data, and uses inverse probability weighting. We report the results of simulations and illustrate the method using a survival study.

Health Communication in Social Media: Message Features Predicting User Engagement on Diabetes-Related Facebook Pages.

PubMed

Rus, Holly M; Cameron, Linda D

2016-10-01

Social media provides unprecedented opportunities for enhancing health communication and health care, including self-management of chronic conditions such as diabetes. Creating messages that engage users is critical for enhancing message impact and dissemination. This study analyzed health communications within ten diabetes-related Facebook pages to identify message features predictive of user engagement. The Common-Sense Model of Illness Self-Regulation and established health communication techniques guided content analyses of 500 Facebook posts. Each post was coded for message features predicted to engage users and numbers of likes, shares, and comments during the week following posting. Multi-level, negative binomial regressions revealed that specific features predicted different forms of engagement. Imagery emerged as a strong predictor; messages with images had higher rates of liking and sharing relative to messages without images. Diabetes consequence information and positive identity predicted higher sharing while negative affect, social support, and crowdsourcing predicted higher commenting. Negative affect, crowdsourcing, and use of external links predicted lower sharing while positive identity predicted lower commenting. The presence of imagery weakened or reversed the positive relationships of several message features with engagement. Diabetes control information and negative affect predicted more likes in text-only messages, but fewer likes when these messages included illustrative imagery. Similar patterns of imagery's attenuating effects emerged for the positive relationships of consequence information, control information, and positive identity with shares and for positive relationships of negative affect and social support with comments. These findings hold promise for guiding communication design in health-related social media.

State space truncation with quantified errors for accurate solutions to discrete Chemical Master Equation

PubMed Central

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

2016-01-01

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEG), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. We further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of 1) the birth and death model, 2) the single gene expression model, 3) the genetic toggle switch model, and 4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate out theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks. PMID:27105653

State Space Truncation with Quantified Errors for Accurate Solutions to Discrete Chemical Master Equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEGs), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. Wemore » further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady-state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of (1) the birth and death model, (2) the single gene expression model, (3) the genetic toggle switch model, and (4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady-state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate our theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks.« less

State Space Truncation with Quantified Errors for Accurate Solutions to Discrete Chemical Master Equation

DOE PAGES

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

2016-04-22

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEGs), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. Wemore » further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady-state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of (1) the birth and death model, (2) the single gene expression model, (3) the genetic toggle switch model, and (4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady-state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate our theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks.« less

Potentiating the Activity of Nisin against Escherichia coli

PubMed Central

Zhou, Liang; van Heel, Auke J.; Montalban-Lopez, Manuel; Kuipers, Oscar P.

2016-01-01

Lantibiotics are antimicrobial (methyl)lanthionine-containing peptides produced by various Gram-positive bacteria. The model lantibiotic, nisin, binds lipid II in the cell membrane. Additionally, after binding it can insert into the membrane creating a pore. Nisin can efficiently inhibit the growth of Gram-positive bacteria and resistance is rarely observed. However, the activity of lantibiotics is at least 100-fold lower against certain Gram-negative bacteria. This is caused by the fact that Gram-negative bacteria have an outer membrane that hinders the peptides to reach lipid II, which is located in the inner membrane. Improving the activity of lantibiotics against Gram-negative bacteria could be achieved if the outer membrane traversing efficiency is increased. Here, several anti-Gram-negative peptides (e.g., apidaecin 1b, oncocin), or parts thereof, were fused to the C-terminus of either a truncated version of nisin containing the first three/five rings or full length nisin. The activities of these fusion peptides were tested against Gram-negative pathogens. Our results showed that when an eight amino acids (PRPPHPRL) tail from apidaecin 1b was attached to nisin, the activity of nisin against Escherichia coli CECT101 was increased more than two times. This research presents a new and promising method to increase the anti-Gram-negative activity of lantibiotics. PMID:26904542

Disruption of the APC gene by t(5;7) translocation in a Turcot family.

PubMed

Sahnane, Nora; Bernasconi, Barbara; Carnevali, Ileana; Furlan, Daniela; Viel, Alessandra; Sessa, Fausto; Tibiletti, Maria Grazia

2016-03-01

Turcot syndrome (TS) refers to the combination of colorectal polyps and primary tumours of the central nervous system. TS is a heterogeneous genetic condition due to APC and/or mismatch repair germline mutations. When APC is involved the vast majority of mutations are truncating, but in approximately 20%-30% of patients with familial polyposis no germline mutation can be found. A 30-year-old Caucasian woman with a positive pedigree for TS was referred to our Genetic Counselling Service. She was negative for APC and MUTYH but showed a reciprocal balanced translocation t(5;7)(q22;p15) at chromosome analysis. FISH analysis using specific BAC probes demonstrated that 5q22 breakpoint disrupted the APC gene. Transcript analysis by MLPA and digital PCR revealed that the cytogenetic rearrangement involving the 3' end of the APC gene caused a defective expression of a truncated transcript. This result allowed cytogenetic analysis to be offered to all the other family members and segregation analysis clearly demonstrated that all the carriers were affected, whereas non-carriers did not have the polyposis. A cytogenetic approach permitted the identification of the mutation-causing disease in this family, and the segregation analysis together with the transcript study supported the pathogenetic role of this mutation. Karyotype analysis was used as a predictive test in all members of this family. This family suggests that clinically positive TS and FAP cases, which test negative with standard molecular analysis, could be easily and cost-effectively resolved by a classical and molecular cytogenetic approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conditional analysis of mixed Poisson processes with baseline counts: implications for trial design and analysis.

PubMed

Cook, Richard J; Wei, Wei

2003-07-01

The design of clinical trials is typically based on marginal comparisons of a primary response under two or more treatments. The considerable gains in efficiency afforded by models conditional on one or more baseline responses has been extensively studied for Gaussian models. The purpose of this article is to present methods for the design and analysis of clinical trials in which the response is a count or a point process, and a corresponding baseline count is available prior to randomization. The methods are based on a conditional negative binomial model for the response given the baseline count and can be used to examine the effect of introducing selection criteria on power and sample size requirements. We show that designs based on this approach are more efficient than those proposed by McMahon et al. (1994).

Are autism spectrum conditions more prevalent in an information-technology region? A school-based study of three regions in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Roelfsema, Martine T; Hoekstra, Rosa A; Allison, Carrie; Wheelwright, Sally; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Baron-Cohen, Simon

2012-05-01

We tested for differences in the prevalence of autism spectrum conditions (ASC) in school-aged children in three geographical regions in the Netherlands. Schools were asked to provide the number of children enrolled, the number having a clinical diagnosis of ASC and/or two control neurodevelopmental conditions. Prevalence was evaluated by negative binomial regression and adjustments were made for non-response and size of the schools. The prevalence estimates of ASC in Eindhoven was 229 per 10,000, significantly higher than in Haarlem (84 per 10,000) and Utrecht (57 per 10,000), whilst the prevalence for the control conditions were similar in all regions. Phase two is planned to validate school-reported cases using standardized diagnostic methods and to explore the possible causes for these differences.

Functional limitations as potential mediators of the effects of self-reported vision status on fall risk of older adults.

PubMed

Steinman, Bernard A; Allen, Susan M; Chen, Jie; Pynoos, Jon

2015-02-01

To test whether limitations in mobility and large-muscle functioning mediate self-reported vision status to increase fall risk among respondents age 65 and above. This study used two waves from the Health and Retirement Study. We conducted binary logistic and negative binomial regression analyses to test indirect paths leading from self-reported vision status to falls, via indices of mobility and large-muscle functioning. Limited evidence was found for a mediating effect among women; however, large-muscle groups were implicated as partially mediating risk factors for falls among men with fair self-reported vision status. Implications of these findings are discussed including the need for prioritizing improved muscle strength of older men and women with poor vision as a preventive measure against falls. © The Author(s) 2014.

Child Schooling in Ethiopia: The Role of Maternal Autonomy.

PubMed

Gebremedhin, Tesfaye Alemayehu; Mohanty, Itismita

2016-01-01

This paper examines the effects of maternal autonomy on child schooling outcomes in Ethiopia using a nationally representative Ethiopian Demographic and Health survey for 2011. The empirical strategy uses a Hurdle Negative Binomial Regression model to estimate years of schooling. An ordered probit model is also estimated to examine age grade distortion using a trichotomous dependent variable that captures three states of child schooling. The large sample size and the range of questions available in this dataset allow us to explore the influence of individual and household level social, economic and cultural factors on child schooling. The analysis finds statistically significant effects of maternal autonomy variables on child schooling in Ethiopia. The roles of maternal autonomy and other household-level factors on child schooling are important issues in Ethiopia, where health and education outcomes are poor for large segments of the population.

Comparing statistical methods for analyzing skewed longitudinal count data with many zeros: an example of smoking cessation.

PubMed

Xie, Haiyi; Tao, Jill; McHugo, Gregory J; Drake, Robert E

2013-07-01

Count data with skewness and many zeros are common in substance abuse and addiction research. Zero-adjusting models, especially zero-inflated models, have become increasingly popular in analyzing this type of data. This paper reviews and compares five mixed-effects Poisson family models commonly used to analyze count data with a high proportion of zeros by analyzing a longitudinal outcome: number of smoking quit attempts from the New Hampshire Dual Disorders Study. The findings of our study indicated that count data with many zeros do not necessarily require zero-inflated or other zero-adjusting models. For rare event counts or count data with small means, a simpler model such as the negative binomial model may provide a better fit. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Firearm homicide in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand: what can we learn from long-term international comparisons?

PubMed

McPhedran, Samara; Baker, Jeanine; Singh, Pooja

2011-01-01

Although firearm homicide remains a topic of interest within criminological and policy discourse, existing research does not generally undertake longitudinal comparisons between countries. However, cross-country comparisons provide insight into whether "local" trends (e.g., declines in firearm homicide in one particular country) differ from broader, international trends. This in turn can improve knowledge about the role of factors such as policing practices and socioeconomic variables in the incidence of lethal violence using firearms. The current study compares long-term firearm homicide trends in three countries with similar social histories but different legislative regimes: Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. Using negative binomial regression, the study found that the most pronounced decline in firearm homicide over the past two decades occurred in New Zealand. Connections between social disadvantage, policing policy, and violence are discussed.

Factors associated with the relationship between motorcycle deaths and economic growth.

PubMed

Law, Teik Hua; Noland, Robert B; Evans, Andrew W

2009-03-01

This paper examines the Kuznets curve relationship for motorcycle deaths. The Kuznets curve describes the inverted U-shape relationship between economic development and, in this case, motorcycle deaths. In early stages of development we expect deaths to increase with increasing motorization. Eventually deaths decrease as technical, policy and political institutions respond to demands for increased safety. We examine this effect as well as some of the factors which might explain the Kuznets relationship: in particular motorcycle helmet laws, medical care and technology improvements, and variables representing the quality of political institutions. We apply a fixed effects negative binomial regression analysis on a panel of 25 countries covering the period 1970-1999. Our results broadly suggest that implementation of road safety regulation, improvement in the quality of political institutions, and medical care and technology developments have contributed to reduced motorcycle deaths.

Bursts of Self-Conscious Emotions in the Daily Lives of Emerging Adults

PubMed Central

Conroy, David E.; Ram, Nilam; Pincus, Aaron L.; Rebar, Amanda L.

2015-01-01

Self-conscious emotions play a role in regulating daily achievement strivings, social behavior, and health, but little is known about the processes underlying their daily manifestation. Emerging adults (n = 182) completed daily diaries for eight days and multilevel models were estimated to evaluate whether, how much, and why their emotions varied from day-to-day. Within-person variation in authentic pride was normally-distributed across people and days whereas the other emotions were burst-like and characterized by zero-inflated, negative binomial distributions. Perceiving social interactions as generally communal increased the odds of hubristic pride activation and reduced the odds of guilt activation; daily communal behavior reduced guilt intensity. Results illuminated processes through which meaning about the self-in-relation-to-others is constructed during a critical period of development. PMID:25859164

Improving removal-based estimates of abundance by sampling a population of spatially distinct subpopulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Jelks, H.L.; Jordan, F.

2005-01-01

 A statistical modeling framework is described for estimating the abundances of spatially distinct subpopulations of animals surveyed using removal sampling. To illustrate this framework, hierarchical models are developed using the Poisson and negative-binomial distributions to model variation in abundance among subpopulations and using the beta distribution to model variation in capture probabilities. These models are fitted to the removal counts observed in a survey of a federally endangered fish species. The resulting estimates of abundance have similar or better precision than those computed using the conventional approach of analyzing the removal counts of each subpopulation separately. Extension of the hierarchical models to include spatial covariates of abundance is straightforward and may be used to identify important features of an animal's habitat or to predict the abundance of animals at unsampled locations.

Analysis of railroad tank car releases using a generalized binomial model.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Hong, Yili

2015-11-01

The United States is experiencing an unprecedented boom in shale oil production, leading to a dramatic growth in petroleum crude oil traffic by rail. In 2014, U.S. railroads carried over 500,000 tank carloads of petroleum crude oil, up from 9500 in 2008 (a 5300% increase). In light of continual growth in crude oil by rail, there is an urgent national need to manage this emerging risk. This need has been underscored in the wake of several recent crude oil release incidents. In contrast to highway transport, which usually involves a tank trailer, a crude oil train can carry a large number of tank cars, having the potential for a large, multiple-tank-car release incident. Previous studies exclusively assumed that railroad tank car releases in the same train accident are mutually independent, thereby estimating the number of tank cars releasing given the total number of tank cars derailed based on a binomial model. This paper specifically accounts for dependent tank car releases within a train accident. We estimate the number of tank cars releasing given the number of tank cars derailed based on a generalized binomial model. The generalized binomial model provides a significantly better description for the empirical tank car accident data through our numerical case study. This research aims to provide a new methodology and new insights regarding the further development of risk management strategies for improving railroad crude oil transportation safety. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence inferences based on joint and sequential testing with finite population sampling.

PubMed

Su, Chun-Lung; Gardner, Ian A; Johnson, Wesley O

2004-07-30

The two-test two-population model, originally formulated by Hui and Walter, for estimation of test accuracy and prevalence estimation assumes conditionally independent tests, constant accuracy across populations and binomial sampling. The binomial assumption is incorrect if all individuals in a population e.g. child-care centre, village in Africa, or a cattle herd are sampled or if the sample size is large relative to population size. In this paper, we develop statistical methods for evaluating diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence estimation based on finite sample data in the absence of a gold standard. Moreover, two tests are often applied simultaneously for the purpose of obtaining a 'joint' testing strategy that has either higher overall sensitivity or specificity than either of the two tests considered singly. Sequential versions of such strategies are often applied in order to reduce the cost of testing. We thus discuss joint (simultaneous and sequential) testing strategies and inference for them. Using the developed methods, we analyse two real and one simulated data sets, and we compare 'hypergeometric' and 'binomial-based' inferences. Our findings indicate that the posterior standard deviations for prevalence (but not sensitivity and specificity) based on finite population sampling tend to be smaller than their counterparts for infinite population sampling. Finally, we make recommendations about how small the sample size should be relative to the population size to warrant use of the binomial model for prevalence estimation. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Solar San Diego: The Impact of Binomial Rate Structures on Real PV-Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Geet, O.; Brown, E.; Blair, T.

2008-01-01

There is confusion in the marketplace regarding the impact of solar photovoltaics (PV) on the user's actual electricity bill under California Net Energy Metering, particularly with binomial tariffs (those that include both demand and energy charges) and time-of-use (TOU) rate structures. The City of San Diego has extensive real-time electrical metering on most of its buildings and PV systems, with interval data for overall consumption and PV electrical production available for multiple years. This paper uses 2007 PV-system data from two city facilities to illustrate the impacts of binomial rate designs. The analysis will determine the energy and demand savingsmore » that the PV systems are achieving relative to the absence of systems. A financial analysis of PV-system performance under various rates structures is presented. The data revealed that actual demand and energy use benefits of bionomial tariffs increase in summer months, when solar resources allow for maximized electricity production. In a binomial tariff system, varying on- and semi-peak times can result in approximately $1,100 change in demand charges per month over not having a PV system in place, an approximate 30% cost savings. The PV systems are also shown to have a 30%-50% reduction in facility energy charges in 2007. Future work will include combining demand and electricity charges and increasing the breadth of rate structures tested, including the impacts of non-coincident demand charges.« less

Analysis of multiple tank car releases in train accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Liu, Chang; Hong, Yili

2017-10-01

There are annually over two million carloads of hazardous materials transported by rail in the United States. The American railroads use large blocks of tank cars to transport petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids from production to consumption sites. Being different from roadway transport of hazardous materials, a train accident can potentially result in the derailment and release of multiple tank cars, which may result in significant consequences. The prior literature predominantly assumes that the occurrence of multiple tank car releases in a train accident is a series of independent Bernoulli processes, and thus uses the binomial distribution to estimate the total number of tank car releases given the number of tank cars derailing or damaged. This paper shows that the traditional binomial model can incorrectly estimate multiple tank car release probability by magnitudes in certain circumstances, thereby significantly affecting railroad safety and risk analysis. To bridge this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a novel, alternative Correlated Binomial (CB) model that accounts for the possible correlations of multiple tank car releases in the same train. We test three distinct correlation structures in the CB model, and find that they all outperform the conventional binomial model based on empirical tank car accident data. The analysis shows that considering tank car release correlations would result in a significantly improved fit of the empirical data than otherwise. Consequently, it is prudent to consider alternative modeling techniques when analyzing the probability of multiple tank car releases in railroad accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Truncation of C-terminal 20 amino acids in PA-X contributes to adaptation of swine influenza virus in pigs.

PubMed

Xu, Guanlong; Zhang, Xuxiao; Sun, Yipeng; Liu, Qinfang; Sun, Honglei; Xiong, Xin; Jiang, Ming; He, Qiming; Wang, Yu; Pu, Juan; Guo, Xin; Yang, Hanchun; Liu, Jinhua

2016-02-25

The PA-X protein is a fusion protein incorporating the N-terminal 191 amino acids of the PA protein with a short C-terminal sequence encoded by an overlapping ORF (X-ORF) in segment 3 that is accessed by + 1 ribosomal frameshifting, and this X-ORF exists in either full length or a truncated form (either 61-or 41-condons). Genetic evolution analysis indicates that all swine influenza viruses (SIVs) possessed full-length PA-X prior to 1985, but since then SIVs with truncated PA-X have gradually increased and become dominant, implying that truncation of this protein may contribute to the adaptation of influenza virus in pigs. To verify this hypothesis, we constructed PA-X extended viruses in the background of a "triple-reassortment" H1N2 SIV with truncated PA-X, and evaluated their biological characteristics in vitro and in vivo. Compared with full-length PA-X, SIV with truncated PA-X had increased viral replication in porcine cells and swine respiratory tissues, along with enhanced pathogenicity, replication and transmissibility in pigs. Furthermore, we found that truncation of PA-X improved the inhibition of IFN-I mRNA expression. Hereby, our results imply that truncation of PA-X may contribute to the adaptation of SIV in pigs.

The combination of i-leader truncation and gemcitabine improves oncolytic adenovirus efficacy in an immunocompetent model.

PubMed

Puig-Saus, C; Laborda, E; Rodríguez-García, A; Cascalló, M; Moreno, R; Alemany, R

2014-02-01

Adenovirus (Ad) i-leader protein is a small protein of unknown function. The C-terminus truncation of the i-leader protein increases Ad release from infected cells and cytotoxicity. In the current study, we use the i-leader truncation to enhance the potency of an oncolytic Ad. In vitro, an i-leader truncated oncolytic Ad is released faster to the supernatant of infected cells, generates larger plaques, and is more cytotoxic in both human and Syrian hamster cell lines. In mice bearing human tumor xenografts, the i-leader truncation enhances oncolytic efficacy. However, in a Syrian hamster pancreatic tumor model, which is immunocompetent and less permissive to human Ad, antitumor efficacy is only observed when the i-leader truncated oncolytic Ad, but not the non-truncated version, is combined with gemcitabine. This synergistic effect observed in the Syrian hamster model was not seen in vitro or in immunodeficient mice bearing the same pancreatic hamster tumors, suggesting a role of the immune system in this synergism. These results highlight the interest of the i-leader C-terminus truncation because it enhances the antitumor potency of an oncolytic Ad and provides synergistic effects with gemcitabine in the presence of an immune competent system.

A review of statistical estimators for risk-adjusted length of stay: analysis of the Australian and new Zealand Intensive Care Adult Patient Data-Base, 2008-2009.

PubMed

Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

2012-05-16

For the analysis of length-of-stay (LOS) data, which is characteristically right-skewed, a number of statistical estimators have been proposed as alternatives to the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression with log dependent variable. Using a cohort of patients identified in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 2008-2009, 12 different methods were used for estimation of intensive care (ICU) length of stay. These encompassed risk-adjusted regression analysis of firstly: log LOS using OLS, linear mixed model [LMM], treatment effects, skew-normal and skew-t models; and secondly: unmodified (raw) LOS via OLS, generalised linear models [GLMs] with log-link and 4 different distributions [Poisson, gamma, negative binomial and inverse-Gaussian], extended estimating equations [EEE] and a finite mixture model including a gamma distribution. A fixed covariate list and ICU-site clustering with robust variance were utilised for model fitting with split-sample determination (80%) and validation (20%) data sets, and model simulation was undertaken to establish over-fitting (Copas test). Indices of model specification using Bayesian information criterion [BIC: lower values preferred] and residual analysis as well as predictive performance (R2, concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), mean absolute error [MAE]) were established for each estimator. The data-set consisted of 111663 patients from 131 ICUs; with mean(SD) age 60.6(18.8) years, 43.0% were female, 40.7% were mechanically ventilated and ICU mortality was 7.8%. ICU length-of-stay was 3.4(5.1) (median 1.8, range (0.17-60)) days and demonstrated marked kurtosis and right skew (29.4 and 4.4 respectively). BIC showed considerable spread, from a maximum of 509801 (OLS-raw scale) to a minimum of 210286 (LMM). R2 ranged from 0.22 (LMM) to 0.17 and the CCC from 0.334 (LMM) to 0.149, with MAE 2.2-2.4. Superior residual behaviour was established for the log-scale estimators. There was a general tendency for over-prediction (negative residuals) and for over-fitting, the exception being the GLM negative binomial estimator. The mean-variance function was best approximated by a quadratic function, consistent with log-scale estimation; the link function was estimated (EEE) as 0.152(0.019, 0.285), consistent with a fractional-root function. For ICU length of stay, log-scale estimation, in particular the LMM, appeared to be the most consistently performing estimator(s). Neither the GLM variants nor the skew-regression estimators dominated.

Accurate thermodynamics for short-ranged truncations of Coulomb interactions in site-site molecular models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, Jocelyn M.; Weeks, John D.

2009-12-01

Coulomb interactions are present in a wide variety of all-atom force fields. Spherical truncations of these interactions permit fast simulations but are problematic due to their incorrect thermodynamics. Herein we demonstrate that simple analytical corrections for the thermodynamics of uniform truncated systems are possible. In particular, results for the simple point charge/extended (SPC/E) water model treated with spherically truncated Coulomb interactions suggested by local molecular field theory [J. M. Rodgers and J. D. Weeks, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 19136 (2008)] are presented. We extend the results developed by Chandler [J. Chem. Phys. 65, 2925 (1976)] so that we may treat the thermodynamics of mixtures of flexible charged and uncharged molecules simulated with spherical truncations. We show that the energy and pressure of spherically truncated bulk SPC/E water are easily corrected using exact second-moment-like conditions on long-ranged structure. Furthermore, applying the pressure correction as an external pressure removes the density errors observed by other research groups in NPT simulations of spherically truncated bulk species.

Prognostic and predictive value of TP53 mutations in node-positive breast cancer patients treated with anthracycline- or anthracycline/taxane-based adjuvant therapy: results from the BIG 02-98 phase III trial

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Abstract Introduction Pre-clinical data suggest p53-dependent anthracycline-induced apoptosis and p53-independent taxane activity. However, dedicated clinical research has not defined a predictive role for TP53 gene mutations. The aim of the current study was to retrospectively explore the prognosis and predictive values of TP53 somatic mutations in the BIG 02-98 randomized phase III trial in which women with node-positive breast cancer were treated with adjuvant doxorubicin-based chemotherapy with or without docetaxel. Methods The prognostic and predictive values of TP53 were analyzed in tumor samples by gene sequencing within exons 5 to 8. Patients were classified according to p53 protein status predicted from TP53 gene sequence, as wild-type (no TP53 variation or TP53 variations which are predicted not to modify p53 protein sequence) or mutant (p53 nonsynonymous mutations). Mutations were subcategorized according to missense or truncating mutations. Survival analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Cox-regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of outcome. Results TP53 gene status was determined for 18% (520 of 2887) of the women enrolled in BIG 02-98. TP53 gene variations were found in 17% (90 of 520). Nonsynonymous p53 mutations, found in 16.3% (85 of 520), were associated with older age, ductal morphology, higher grade and hormone-receptor negativity. Of the nonsynonymous mutations, 12.3% (64 of 520) were missense and 3.6% were truncating (19 of 520). Only truncating mutations showed significant independent prognostic value, with an increased recurrence risk compared to patients with non-modified p53 protein (hazard ratio = 3.21, 95% confidence interval = 1.740 to 5.935, P = 0.0002). p53 status had no significant predictive value for response to docetaxel. Conclusions p53 truncating mutations were uncommon but associated with poor prognosis. No significant predictive role for p53 status was detected. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00174655 PMID:22551440

CLAVATA1 Dominant-Negative Alleles Reveal Functional Overlap between Multiple Receptor Kinases That Regulate Meristem and Organ Development

PubMed Central

Diévart, Anne; Dalal, Monica; Tax, Frans E.; Lacey, Alexzandria D.; Huttly, Alison; Li, Jianming; Clark, Steven E.

2003-01-01

The CLAVATA1 (CLV1) receptor kinase controls stem cell number and differentiation at the Arabidopsis shoot and flower meristems. Other components of the CLV1 signaling pathway include the secreted putative ligand CLV3 and the receptor-like protein CLV2. We report evidence indicating that all intermediate and strong clv1 alleles are dominant negative and likely interfere with the activity of unknown receptor kinase(s) that have functional overlap with CLV1. clv1 dominant-negative alleles show major differences from dominant-negative alleles characterized to date in animal receptor kinase signaling systems, including the lack of a dominant-negative effect of kinase domain truncation and the ability of missense mutations in the extracellular domain to act in a dominant-negative manner. We analyzed chimeric receptor kinases by fusing CLV1 and BRASSINOSTEROID INSENSITIVE1 (BRI1) coding sequences and expressing these in clv1 null backgrounds. Constructs containing the CLV1 extracellular domain and the BRI1 kinase domain were strongly dominant negative in the regulation of meristem development. Furthermore, we show that CLV1 expressed within the pedicel can partially replace the function of the ERECTA receptor kinase. We propose the presence of multiple receptors that regulate meristem development in a functionally related manner whose interactions are driven by the extracellular domains and whose activation requires the kinase domain. PMID:12724544

Lamp with a truncated reflector cup

DOEpatents

Li, Ming; Allen, Steven C.; Bazydola, Sarah; Ghiu, Camil-Daniel

2013-10-15

A lamp assembly, and method for making same. The lamp assembly includes first and second truncated reflector cups. The lamp assembly also includes at least one base plate disposed between the first and second truncated reflector cups, and a light engine disposed on a top surface of the at least one base plate. The light engine is configured to emit light to be reflected by one of the first and second truncated reflector cups.

A binomial stochastic kinetic approach to the Michaelis-Menten mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lente, Gábor

2013-05-01

This Letter presents a new method that gives an analytical approximation of the exact solution of the stochastic Michaelis-Menten mechanism without computationally demanding matrix operations. The method is based on solving the deterministic rate equations and then using the results as guiding variables of calculating probability values using binomial distributions. This principle can be generalized to a number of different kinetic schemes and is expected to be very useful in the evaluation of measurements focusing on the catalytic activity of one or a few individual enzyme molecules.

Taxonomy of the order Mononegavirales: update 2017.

PubMed

Amarasinghe, Gaya K; Bào, Yīmíng; Basler, Christopher F; Bavari, Sina; Beer, Martin; Bejerman, Nicolás; Blasdell, Kim R; Bochnowski, Alisa; Briese, Thomas; Bukreyev, Alexander; Calisher, Charles H; Chandran, Kartik; Collins, Peter L; Dietzgen, Ralf G; Dolnik, Olga; Dürrwald, Ralf; Dye, John M; Easton, Andrew J; Ebihara, Hideki; Fang, Qi; Formenty, Pierre; Fouchier, Ron A M; Ghedin, Elodie; Harding, Robert M; Hewson, Roger; Higgins, Colleen M; Hong, Jian; Horie, Masayuki; James, Anthony P; Jiāng, Dàohóng; Kobinger, Gary P; Kondo, Hideki; Kurath, Gael; Lamb, Robert A; Lee, Benhur; Leroy, Eric M; Li, Ming; Maisner, Andrea; Mühlberger, Elke; Netesov, Sergey V; Nowotny, Norbert; Patterson, Jean L; Payne, Susan L; Paweska, Janusz T; Pearson, Michael N; Randall, Rick E; Revill, Peter A; Rima, Bertus K; Rota, Paul; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Schwemmle, Martin; Smither, Sophie J; Song, Qisheng; Stone, David M; Takada, Ayato; Terregino, Calogero; Tesh, Robert B; Tomonaga, Keizo; Tordo, Noël; Towner, Jonathan S; Vasilakis, Nikos; Volchkov, Viktor E; Wahl-Jensen, Victoria; Walker, Peter J; Wang, Beibei; Wang, David; Wang, Fei; Wang, Lin-Fa; Werren, John H; Whitfield, Anna E; Yan, Zhichao; Ye, Gongyin; Kuhn, Jens H

2017-08-01

In 2017, the order Mononegavirales was expanded by the inclusion of a total of 69 novel species. Five new rhabdovirus genera and one new nyamivirus genus were established to harbor 41 of these species, whereas the remaining new species were assigned to already established genera. Furthermore, non-Latinized binomial species names replaced all paramyxovirus and pneumovirus species names, thereby accomplishing application of binomial species names throughout the entire order. This article presents the updated taxonomy of the order Mononegavirales as now accepted by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV).

Categorical Data Analysis Using a Skewed Weibull Regression Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, Renault; Sinha, Debajyoti; Dey, Dipak; Polpo, Adriano

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a Weibull link (skewed) model for categorical response data arising from binomial as well as multinomial model. We show that, for such types of categorical data, the most commonly used models (logit, probit and complementary log-log) can be obtained as limiting cases. We further compare the proposed model with some other asymmetrical models. The Bayesian as well as frequentist estimation procedures for binomial and multinomial data responses are presented in details. The analysis of two data sets to show the efficiency of the proposed model is performed.

Truncated Sum Rules and Their Use in Calculating Fundamental Limits of Nonlinear Susceptibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzyk, Mark G.

Truncated sum rules have been used to calculate the fundamental limits of the nonlinear susceptibilities and the results have been consistent with all measured molecules. However, given that finite-state models appear to result in inconsistencies in the sum rules, it may seem unclear why the method works. In this paper, the assumptions inherent in the truncation process are discussed and arguments based on physical grounds are presented in support of using truncated sum rules in calculating fundamental limits. The clipped harmonic oscillator is used as an illustration of how the validity of truncation can be tested and several limiting cases are discussed as examples of the nuances inherent in the method.

NIK and Cot cooperate to trigger NF-kappaB p65 phosphorylation.

PubMed

Wittwer, Tobias; Schmitz, M Lienhard

2008-06-27

The serine/threonine kinase Cot triggers NF-kappaB-dependent transactivation and activation of various MAPKinases. Here we identify Cot as a novel p65 interacting protein kinase. Cot expression induces p65 phosphorylation at serines 536 and 468 in dependence from its kinase function. Accordingly, shRNA-mediated knockdown of Cot expression interferes with TNF-induced NF-kappaB-dependent gene expression. Also the C-terminally truncated, oncogenic form of Cot is able to trigger p65 phosphorylation. In vitro kinase assays and dominant negative mutants revealed that NIK functions downstream of Cot to mediate p65 phosphorylation.

Truncation of C-terminal 20 amino acids in PA-X contributes to adaptation of swine influenza virus in pigs

PubMed Central

Xu, Guanlong; Zhang, Xuxiao; Sun, Yipeng; Liu, Qinfang; Sun, Honglei; Xiong, Xin; Jiang, Ming; He, Qiming; Wang, Yu; Pu, Juan; Guo, Xin; Yang, Hanchun; Liu, Jinhua

2016-01-01

The PA-X protein is a fusion protein incorporating the N-terminal 191 amino acids of the PA protein with a short C-terminal sequence encoded by an overlapping ORF (X-ORF) in segment 3 that is accessed by + 1 ribosomal frameshifting, and this X-ORF exists in either full length or a truncated form (either 61-or 41-condons). Genetic evolution analysis indicates that all swine influenza viruses (SIVs) possessed full-length PA-X prior to 1985, but since then SIVs with truncated PA-X have gradually increased and become dominant, implying that truncation of this protein may contribute to the adaptation of influenza virus in pigs. To verify this hypothesis, we constructed PA-X extended viruses in the background of a “triple-reassortment” H1N2 SIV with truncated PA-X, and evaluated their biological characteristics in vitro and in vivo. Compared with full-length PA-X, SIV with truncated PA-X had increased viral replication in porcine cells and swine respiratory tissues, along with enhanced pathogenicity, replication and transmissibility in pigs. Furthermore, we found that truncation of PA-X improved the inhibition of IFN-I mRNA expression. Hereby, our results imply that truncation of PA-X may contribute to the adaptation of SIV in pigs. PMID:26912401

Higher-order nonclassicalities of finite dimensional coherent states: A comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, Nasir; Verma, Amit; Pathak, Anirban

2018-07-01

Conventional coherent states (CSs) are defined in various ways. For example, CS is defined as an infinite Poissonian expansion in Fock states, as displaced vacuum state, or as an eigenket of annihilation operator. In the infinite dimensional Hilbert space, these definitions are equivalent. However, these definitions are not equivalent for the finite dimensional systems. In this work, we present a comparative description of the lower- and higher-order nonclassical properties of the finite dimensional CSs which are also referred to as qudit CSs (QCSs). For the comparison, nonclassical properties of two types of QCSs are used: (i) nonlinear QCS produced by applying a truncated displacement operator on the vacuum and (ii) linear QCS produced by the Poissonian expansion in Fock states of the CS truncated at (d - 1)-photon Fock state. The comparison is performed using a set of nonclassicality witnesses (e.g., higher order antibunching, higher order sub-Poissonian statistics, higher order squeezing, Agarwal-Tara parameter, Klyshko's criterion) and a set of quantitative measures of nonclassicality (e.g., negativity potential, concurrence potential and anticlassicality). The higher order nonclassicality witnesses have found to reveal the existence of higher order nonclassical properties of QCS for the first time.

A New Distribution Family for Microarray Data †

PubMed Central

Kelmansky, Diana Mabel; Ricci, Lila

2017-01-01

The traditional approach with microarray data has been to apply transformations that approximately normalize them, with the drawback of losing the original scale. The alternative standpoint taken here is to search for models that fit the data, characterized by the presence of negative values, preserving their scale; one advantage of this strategy is that it facilitates a direct interpretation of the results. A new family of distributions named gpower-normal indexed by p∈R is introduced and it is proven that these variables become normal or truncated normal when a suitable gpower transformation is applied. Expressions are given for moments and quantiles, in terms of the truncated normal density. This new family can be used to model asymmetric data that include non-positive values, as required for microarray analysis. Moreover, it has been proven that the gpower-normal family is a special case of pseudo-dispersion models, inheriting all the good properties of these models, such as asymptotic normality for small variances. A combined maximum likelihood method is proposed to estimate the model parameters, and it is applied to microarray and contamination data. R codes are available from the authors upon request. PMID:28208652

Truncated C-terminus of fibrillin-1 induces Marfanoid-progeroid-lipodystrophy (MPL) syndrome in rabbit.

PubMed

Chen, Mao; Yao, Bing; Yang, Qiangbing; Deng, Jichao; Song, Yuning; Sui, Tingting; Zhou, Lina; Yao, HaoBing; Xu, Yuanyuan; Ouyang, Hongsheng; Pang, Daxin; Li, Zhanjun; Lai, Liangxue

2018-04-09

Various clinical differences have been observed between patients with the FBN1 gene mutation and those with the classical Marfan phenotype. Although FBN1 knockout (KO) or dominant-negative mutant mice are widely used as an animal model for Marfan syndrome (MFS), these mice cannot recapitulate the genotype/phenotype relationship of Marfanoid-progeroid-lipodystrophy (MPL) syndrome, which is caused by a mutation in the C-terminus of fibrillin-1, the penultimate exon of the FBN1 gene. Here, we describe the generation of a rabbit MPL model with C-terminal truncation of fibrillin-1 using a CRISPR/Cas9 system. FBN1 heterozygous ( FBN1 Het) rabbits faithfully recapitulated the phenotypes of MFS, including muscle wasting and impaired connective tissue, ocular syndrome and aortic dilation. Moreover, skin symptoms, lipodystrophy, growth retardation and dysglycemia were also seen in these FBN1 Het rabbits, and have not been reported in other animal models. In conclusion, this novel rabbit model mimics the histopathological changes and functional defects of MPL syndrome, and could become a valuable model for studies of pathogenesis and drug screening for MPL syndrome. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

A New Distribution Family for Microarray Data.

PubMed

Kelmansky, Diana Mabel; Ricci, Lila

2017-02-10

The traditional approach with microarray data has been to apply transformations that approximately normalize them, with the drawback of losing the original scale. The alternative stand point taken here is to search for models that fit the data, characterized by the presence of negative values, preserving their scale; one advantage of this strategy is that it facilitates a direct interpretation of the results. A new family of distributions named gpower-normal indexed by p∈R is introduced and it is proven that these variables become normal or truncated normal when a suitable gpower transformation is applied. Expressions are given for moments and quantiles, in terms of the truncated normal density. This new family can be used to model asymmetric data that include non-positive values, as required for microarray analysis. Moreover, it has been proven that the gpower-normal family is a special case of pseudo-dispersion models, inheriting all the good properties of these models, such as asymptotic normality for small variances. A combined maximum likelihood method is proposed to estimate the model parameters, and it is applied to microarray and contamination data. Rcodes are available from the authors upon request.