NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitmore, P.; Benz, H.; Bolton, M.; Crawford, G.; Dengler, L.; Fryer, G.; Goltz, J.; Hansen, R.; Kryzanowski, K.; Malone, S.; Oppenheimer, D.; Petty, E.; Rogers, G.; Wilson, Jim

2008-01-01

New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Mungov, G.; Sweeney, A.; Arcos, N. P.

2017-12-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 Mw earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.

Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; Stroker, Kelly; Arcos, Nicolas

2017-08-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 M w earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 coastal tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height for each tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.

Geological Evidences for a Large Tsunami Generated by the 7.3 ka Kikai Caldera Eruption, Southern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Fujino, S.; Satake, K.

2017-12-01

The 7.3 ka eruption of Kikai volcano, southern Kyushu, Japan, is one of the largest caldera-forming eruption in the world. Given that a huge caldera was formed in shallow sea area during the eruption, a tsunami must have been generated by a sea-level change associated. Pyroclastic flow and tsunami deposits by the eruption have been studied around the caldera, but they are not enough to evaluate the tsunami size. The goal of this study is to unravel sizes of tsunami and triggering caldera collapse by numerical simulations based on a widely-distributed tsunami deposit associated with the eruption. In this presentation, we will provide an initial data on distribution of the 7.3 ka tsunami deposit contained in sediment cores taken at three coastal lowlands in Wakayama, Tokushima, and Oita prefectures (560 km, 520 km, and 310 km north-east from the caldera, respectively). A volcanic ash from the eruption (Kikai Akahoya tephra: K-Ah) is evident in organic-rich muddy sedimentary sequence in all sediment cores. Up to 6-cm-thick sand layer, characterized by a grading structure and sharp bed boundary with lower mud, is observed immediately beneath the K-Ah tephra in all study sites. These sedimentary characteristics and broad distribution indicate that the sand layer was most likely deposited by a tsunami which can propagate to a wide area, but not by a local storm surge. Furthermore, the stratigraphic relationship implies that the study sites must have been inundated by the tsunami prior to the ash fall. A sand layer is also evident within the K-Ah tephra layer, suggesting that the sand layer was probably formed by a subsequent tsunami wave during the ash fall. These geological evidences for the 7.3 ka tsunami inundation will contribute to a better understanding of the caldera collapse and the resultant tsunami, but also of the tsunami generating system in the eruptive process.

Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined earthquake and landslide sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latcharote, Panon; Suppasri, Anawat; Imamura, Fumihiko; Aytore, Betul; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet

2016-12-01

This study evaluates tsunami hazards in the Marmara Sea from possible worst-case tsunami scenarios that are from submarine earthquakes and landslides. In terms of fault-generated tsunamis, seismic ruptures can propagate along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which has produced historical tsunamis in the Marmara Sea. Based on the past studies, which consider fault-generated tsunamis and landslide-generated tsunamis individually, future scenarios are expected to generate tsunamis, and submarine landslides could be triggered by seismic motion. In addition to these past studies, numerical modeling has been applied to tsunami generation and propagation from combined earthquake and landslide sources. In this study, tsunami hazards are evaluated from both individual and combined cases of submarine earthquakes and landslides through numerical tsunami simulations with a grid size of 90 m for bathymetry and topography data for the entire Marmara Sea region and validated with historical observations from the 1509 and 1894 earthquakes. This study implements TUNAMI model with a two-layer model to conduct numerical tsunami simulations, and the numerical results show that the maximum tsunami height could reach 4.0 m along Istanbul shores for a full submarine rupture of the NAF, with a fault slip of 5.0 m in the eastern and western basins of the Marmara Sea. The maximum tsunami height for landslide-generated tsunamis from small, medium, and large of initial landslide volumes (0.15, 0.6, and 1.5 km3, respectively) could reach 3.5, 6.0, and 8.0 m, respectively, along Istanbul shores. Possible tsunamis from submarine landslides could be significantly higher than those from earthquakes, depending on the landslide volume significantly. These combined earthquake and landslide sources only result in higher tsunami amplitudes for small volumes significantly because of amplification within the same tsunami amplitude scale (3.0-4.0 m). Waveforms from all the coasts around the Marmara Sea indicate that other residential areas might have had a high risk of tsunami hazards from submarine landslides, which can generate higher tsunami amplitudes and shorter arrival times, compared to Istanbul.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

PubMed

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-10-28

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products

PubMed Central

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-01-01

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

The TRIDEC Virtual Tsunami Atlas - customized value-added simulation data products for Tsunami Early Warning generated on compute clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, P.; Hammitzsch, M.; Babeyko, A.; Wächter, J.

2012-04-01

The development of new Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) requires the modelling of spatio-temporal spreading of tsunami waves both recorded from past events and hypothetical future cases. The model results are maintained in digital repositories for use in TEWS command and control units for situation assessment once a real tsunami occurs. Thus the simulation results must be absolutely trustworthy, in a sense that the quality of these datasets is assured. This is a prerequisite as solid decision making during a crisis event and the dissemination of dependable warning messages to communities under risk will be based on them. This requires data format validity, but even more the integrity and information value of the content, being a derived value-added product derived from raw tsunami model output. Quality checking of simulation result products can be done in multiple ways, yet the visual verification of both temporal and spatial spreading characteristics for each simulation remains important. The eye of the human observer still remains an unmatched tool for the detection of irregularities. This requires the availability of convenient, human-accessible mappings of each simulation. The improvement of tsunami models necessitates the changes in many variables, including simulation end-parameters. Whenever new improved iterations of the general models or underlying spatial data are evaluated, hundreds to thousands of tsunami model results must be generated for each model iteration, each one having distinct initial parameter settings. The use of a Compute Cluster Environment (CCE) of sufficient size allows the automated generation of all tsunami-results within model iterations in little time. This is a significant improvement to linear processing on dedicated desktop machines or servers. This allows for accelerated/improved visual quality checking iterations, which in turn can provide a positive feedback into the overall model improvement iteratively. An approach to set-up and utilize the CCE has been implemented by the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) funded under the European Union's FP7. TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management. The addressed challenges include the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulations and data fusion tools. Additionally, TRIDEC adopts enhancements of Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) principles in terms of Event Driven Architecture (EDA) design. As a next step the implemented CCE's services to generate derived and customized simulation products are foreseen to be provided via an EDA service for on-demand processing for specific threat-parameters and to accommodate for model improvements.

Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis Version 4.0 Brings Forecasting Speed, Accuracy, and Capability Improvements to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterling, K.; Denbo, D. W.; Eble, M. C.

2016-12-01

Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) software was developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for use in tsunami forecasting and has been used by both U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) since 2012, when SIFTv3.1 was operationally accepted. Since then, advancements in research and modeling have resulted in several new features being incorporated into SIFT forecasting. Following the priorities and needs of the TWCs, upgrades to SIFT forecasting were implemented into SIFTv4.0, scheduled to become operational in October 2016. Because every minute counts in the early warning process, two major time saving features were implemented in SIFT 4.0. To increase processing speeds and generate high-resolution flooding forecasts more quickly, the tsunami propagation and inundation codes were modified to run on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). To reduce time demand on duty scientists during an event, an automated DART inversion (or fitting) process was implemented. To increase forecasting accuracy, the forecasted amplitudes and inundations were adjusted to include dynamic tidal oscillations, thereby reducing the over-estimates of flooding common in SIFTv3.1 due to the static tide stage conservatively set at Mean High Water. Further improvements to forecasts were gained through the assimilation of additional real-time observations. Cabled array measurements from Bottom Pressure Recorders (BPRs) in the Oceans Canada NEPTUNE network are now available to SIFT for use in the inversion process. To better meet the needs of harbor masters and emergency managers, SIFTv4.0 adds a tsunami currents graphical product to the suite of disseminated forecast results. When delivered, these new features in SIFTv4.0 will improve the operational tsunami forecasting speed, accuracy, and capabilities at NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers.

Tsunami Risk Assessment Modelling in Chabahar Port, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delavar, M. R.; Mohammadi, H.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

2017-09-01

The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC), the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan) reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India) and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST). In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km2 of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.

Modeling Tsunami Wave Generation Using a Two-layer Granular Landslide Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, G.; Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Shi, F.; Grilli, S. T.; Hsu, T. J.

2016-12-01

Tsunamis can be generated by subaerial or submarine landslides in reservoirs, lakes, fjords, bays and oceans. Compared to seismogenic tsunamis, landslide or submarine mass failure (SMF) tsunamis are normally characterized by relatively shorter wave lengths and stronger wave dispersion, and potentially may generate large wave amplitudes locally and high run-up along adjacent coastlines. Due to a complex interplay between the landslide and tsunami waves, accurate simulation of landslide motion as well as tsunami generation is a challenging task. We develop and test a new two-layer model for granular landslide motion and tsunami wave generation. The landslide is described as a saturated granular flow, accounting for intergranular stresses governed by Coulomb friction. Tsunami wave generation is simulated by the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic wave model NHWAVE, which is capable of capturing wave dispersion efficiently using a small number of discretized vertical levels. Depth-averaged governing equations for the granular landslide are derived in a slope-oriented coordinate system, taking into account the dynamic interaction between the lower-layer granular landslide and upper-layer water motion. The model is tested against laboratory experiments on impulsive wave generation by subaerial granular landslides. Model results illustrate a complex interplay between the granular landslide and tsunami waves, and they reasonably predict not only the tsunami wave generation but also the granular landslide motion from initiation to deposition.

Relationship Between Maximum Tsunami Amplitude and Duration of Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yoo Yin; Whitmore, Paul M.

2014-12-01

All available tsunami observations at tide gauges situated along the North American coast were examined to determine if there is any clear relationship between maximum amplitude and signal duration. In total, 89 historical tsunami recordings generated by 13 major earthquakes between 1952 and 2011 were investigated. Tidal variations were filtered out of the signal and the duration between the arrival time and the time at which the signals drops and stays below 0.3 m amplitude was computed. The processed tsunami time series were evaluated and a linear least-squares fit with a 95 % confidence interval was examined to compare tsunami durations with maximum tsunami amplitude in the study region. The confidence interval is roughly 20 h over the range of maximum tsunami amplitudes in which we are interested. This relatively large confidence interval likely results from variations in local resonance effects, late-arriving reflections, and other effects.

The 1946 Unimak Tsunami Earthquake Area: revised tectonic structure in reprocessed seismic images and a suspect near field tsunami source

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, John J.; von Huene, Roland E.; Ryan, Holly F.

2014-01-01

In 1946 at Unimak Pass, Alaska, a tsunami destroyed the lighthouse at Scotch Cap, Unimak Island, took 159 lives on the Hawaiian Islands, damaged island coastal facilities across the south Pacific, and destroyed a hut in Antarctica. The tsunami magnitude of 9.3 is comparable to the magnitude 9.1 tsunami that devastated the Tohoku coast of Japan in 2011. Both causative earthquake epicenters occurred in shallow reaches of the subduction zone. Contractile tectonism along the Alaska margin presumably generated the far-field tsunami by producing a seafloor elevation change. However, the Scotch Cap lighthouse was destroyed by a near-field tsunami that was probably generated by a coeval large undersea landslide, yet bathymetric surveys showed no fresh large landslide scar. We investigated this problem by reprocessing five seismic lines, presented here as high-resolution graphic images, both uninterpreted and interpreted, and available for the reader to download. In addition, the processed seismic data for each line are available for download as seismic industry-standard SEG-Y files. One line, processed through prestack depth migration, crosses a 10 × 15 kilometer and 800-meter-high hill presumed previously to be basement, but that instead is composed of stratified rock superimposed on the slope sediment. This image and multibeam bathymetry illustrate a slide block that could have sourced the 1946 near-field tsunami because it is positioned within a distance determined by the time between earthquake shaking and the tsunami arrival at Scotch Cap and is consistent with the local extent of high runup of 42 meters along the adjacent Alaskan coast. The Unimak/Scotch Cap margin is structurally similar to the 2011 Tohoku tsunamigenic margin where a large landslide at the trench, coeval with the Tohoku earthquake, has been documented. Further study can improve our understanding of tsunami sources along Alaska’s erosional margins.

Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Son, S.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

The California Tsunami Program coordinated by CalOES and CGS in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. The goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and (4) determine ';safe depths' for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during a tsunami event. This presentation will focus on the results from five California ports and harbors, and will include feedback we have received from initial discussion with local harbor masters and port authorities. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

The Great Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011 in Japan: A Critical Review and Evaluation of the Tsunami Source Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pararas-Carayannis, George

2014-12-01

The great Tohoku-Oki earthquake of March 11, 2011 generated a very destructive and anomalously high tsunami. To understand its source mechanism, an examination was undertaken of the seismotectonics of the region and of the earthquake's focal mechanism, energy release, rupture patterns and spatial and temporal sequencing and clustering of major aftershocks. It was determined that the great tsunami resulted from a combination of crustal deformations of the ocean floor due to up-thrust tectonic motions, augmented by additional uplift due to the quake's slow and long rupturing process, as well as to large coseismic lateral movements which compressed and deformed the compacted sediments along the accretionary prism of the overriding plane. The deformation occurred randomly and non-uniformly along parallel normal faults and along oblique, en-echelon faults to the earthquake's overall rupture direction—the latter failing in a sequential bookshelf manner with variable slip angles. As the 1992 Nicaragua and the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes demonstrated, such bookshelf failures of sedimentary layers could contribute to anomalously high tsunamis. As with the 1896 tsunami, additional ocean floor deformation and uplift of the sediments was responsible for the higher waves generated by the 2011 earthquake. The efficiency of tsunami generation was greater along the shallow eastern segment of the fault off the Miyagi Prefecture where most of the energy release of the earthquake and the deformations occurred, while the segment off the Ibaraki Prefecture—where the rupture process was rapid—released less seismic energy, resulted in less compaction and deformation of sedimentary layers and thus to a tsunami of lesser offshore height. The greater tsunamigenic efficiency of the 2011 earthquake and high degree of the tsunami's destructiveness along Honshu's coastlines resulted from vertical crustal displacements of more than 10 m due to up-thrust faulting and from lateral compression and folding of sedimentary layers in an east-southeast direction which contributed additional uplift estimated at about 7 m—mainly along the leading segment of the accretionary prism of the overriding tectonic plate.

Far-field tsunami of 2017 Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquake recorded by Chilean tide gauge network: Implications for tsunami warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Benavente, R. F.; Zelaya, C.; Núñez, C.; Gonzalez, G.

2017-12-01

The 2017 Mw 8.1, Tehuantepec earthquake generated a moderated tsunami, which was registered in near-field tide gauges network activating a tsunami threat state for Mexico issued by PTWC. In the case of Chile, the forecast of tsunami waves indicate amplitudes less than 0.3 meters above the tide level, advising an informative state of threat, without activation of evacuation procedures. Nevertheless, during sea level monitoring of network we detect wave amplitudes (> 0.3 m) indicating a possible change of threat state. Finally, NTWS maintains informative level of threat based on mathematical filtering analysis of sea level records. After 2010 Mw 8.8, Maule earthquake, the Chilean National Tsunami Warning System (NTWS) has increased its observational capabilities to improve early response. Most important operational efforts have focused on strengthening tide gauge network for national area of responsibility. Furthermore, technological initiatives as Integrated Tsunami Prediction and Warning System (SIPAT) has segmented the area of responsibility in blocks to focus early warning and evacuation procedures on most affected coastal areas, while maintaining an informative state for distant areas of near-field earthquake. In the case of far-field events, NTWS follow the recommendations proposed by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), including a comprehensive monitoring of sea level records, such as tide gauges and DART (Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoys, to evaluate the state of tsunami threat in the area of responsibility. The main objective of this work is to analyze the first-order physical processes involved in the far-field propagation and coastal impact of tsunami, including implications for decision-making of NTWS. To explore our main question, we construct a finite-fault model of the 2017, Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec earthquake. We employ the rupture model to simulate a transoceanic tsunami modeled by Neowave2D. We generate synthetic time series at tide gauge stations and compare them with recorded sea level data, to dismiss meteorological processes, such as storms and surges. Resonance analysis is performed by wavelet technique.

Tsunamis of the northeast Indian Ocean with a particular focus on the Bay of Bengal region—A synthesis and review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, Edris; Dominey-Howes, Dale; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James

2012-08-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004 IOT) challenged assumptions about the level of regional hazard. Significantly, there has been some debate about the hypothesis that the northern Bay of Bengal may be capable of generating large tsunamis similar to the 2004 IOT. To test this hypothesis, we documented historical and palaeotsunamis in the northeast Indian Ocean. Using multiple sources, we identified 135 purported tsunamis. After completing a process of validity assessment, we categorised 31 definite tsunamis, 27 probable tsunamis, 51 doubtful tsunamis and 20 events that only caused a seiche or disturbance in an inland river. Six of the purported events were identified as either cyclones or earthquakes without any associated tsunamis. Using the reported list of 135 events, we identified different tsunamigenic regions and explored the temporal distribution of past events, with the oldest event dated to around 38,000BC (although the dated material is most likely reworked and this was probably a Holocene event). The second oldest event dated to 3000-2000BC. Historical records indicate that only one definite tsunami, occurring in AD1762, was generated in the northern Bay of Bengal. We encountered a number of significant challenges in reviewing and analysing data contained within the documents and sources we consulted. Statistical analysis of tsunami data from AD1710 to AD2010 suggests that the occurrence of a tsunami affecting the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar is 0.99% in any given year, and 63% in a century. We recognise that this incomplete tsunami dataset limits the capacity to fully quantify the hazard. As such, we recommend further 'deep' archival research coupled with regional palaeotsunami studies to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the hazard.

Issues and Advances in Understanding Landslide-Generated Tsunamis: Toward a Unified Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Locat, J.; Lee, H. J.; Lynett, P. J.; Parsons, T.; Kayen, R. E.; Hart, P. E.

2008-12-01

The physics of tsunamis generated from submarine landslides is highly complex, involving a cross- disciplinary exchange in geophysics. In the 10 years following the devastating Papua New Guinea tsunami, there have been significant advances in understanding landslide-generated tsunamis. However, persistent issues still remain related to submarine landslide dynamics that may be addressed with collection of new marine geologic and geophysical observations. We review critical elements of landslide tsunamis in the hope of developing a unified model that encompasses all stages of the process from triggering to tsunami runup. Because the majority of non-volcanogenic landslides that generate tsunamis are triggered seismically, advances in understanding inertial displacements and changes in strength and rheologic properties in response to strong-ground motion need to be included in a unified model. For example, interaction between compliant marine sediments and multi-direction ground motion results in greater permanent plastic displacements than predicted by traditional rigid-block analysis. When considering the coupling of the overlying water layer in the generation of tsunamis, the post-failure dynamics of landslides is important since the overall rate of seafloor deformation for landslides is less than or comparable to the phase speed of tsunami waves. As such, the rheologic and mechanical behavior of the slide material needs to be well understood. For clayey and silty debris flows, a non-linear (Herschel-Bulkley) and bilinear rheology have recently been developed to explain observed runout distances and deposit thicknesses. An additional complexity to this rheology is the inclusion of hydrate-laden sediment that commonly occurs along continental slopes. Although it has been proposed in the past that gas hydrate dissociation may provide potential failure planes for slide movement, it is unclear how zones of rigid hydrate-bearing sediment surrounded by a more viscoplastic matrix affects the overall rheologic behavior during slide dynamics. For more rigid materials, such as carbonate and volcanic rocks, models are being developed that encompass the initial fracturing and eventual disintegration associated with debris avalanches. Lastly, the physics dictating the hydrodynamics of landslide-generated tsunamis is equally complex. The effects of non-linearity and dispersion are not necessarily negligible for landslides (in contrast to most earthquake-generated tsunamis), indicating that numerical implementation of the non-linear Boussinesq equations is often needed. Moreover, we show that for near-field landslide tsunamis propagating across the continental shelf, bottom friction (bottom boundary layer turbulence) and wave breaking can be important energy sinks. Detailed geophysical surveys can dissect landslide complexes to determine the geometry of individual events and help estimate rheological properties of the flowing mass, whereas cores in landslide provinces can determine the mechanical properties and pore-pressure distribution for pre- and post-failure sediment. This information is critical toward developing well-documented case histories for validating physics-based landslide tsunami models.

International year of planet earth 7. Oceans, submarine land-slides and consequent tsunamis in Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mosher, D.C.

2009-01-01

Canada has the longest coastline and largest continental margin of any nation in the World. As a result, it is more likely than other nations to experience marine geohazards such as submarine landslides and consequent tsunamis. Coastal landslides represent a specific threat because of their possible proximity to societal infrastructure and high tsunami potential; they occur without warning and with little time lag between failure and tsunami impact. Continental margin landslides are common in the geologic record but rare on human timescales. Some ancient submarine landslides are massive but more recent events indicate that even relatively small slides on continental margins can generate devastating tsunamis. Tsunami impact can occur hundreds of km away from the source event, and with less than 2 hours warning. Identification of high-potential submarine landslide regions, combined with an understanding of landslide and tsunami processes and sophisticated tsunami propagation models, are required to identify areas at high risk of impact.

Geologic impacts of the 2004 Indian ocean tsunami on Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richmond, B.M.; Jaffe, B.E.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Morton, R.A.

2006-01-01

The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was generated by a large submarine earthquake (magnitude ???9.1) with an epicenter located under the seafloor in the eastern Indian Ocean near northern Sumatra, Indonesia. The resulting tsunami was measured globally and had significant geologic impacts throughout the Indian Ocean basin. Observations of tsunami impacts, such as morphologic change, sedimentary deposits, and water-level measurements, are used to reconstruct tsunamogenic processes. Data from Sumatra, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives provide a synoptic view of tsunami characteristics from a wide range of coastal environments both near- and far-field from the tsunami origin. Impacts to the coast as a result of the tsunami varied depending upon the height of the wave at impact, orientation of the coast with regard to direction of wave approach, and local topography, bathymetry, geology, and vegetation cover. Tsunami deposits were observed in all the countries visited and can be generally characterized as relatively thin sheets (<80 cm), mostly of sand. ?? 2006 Gebru??der Borntraeger.

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for the 2014 Chilean earthquake. Results show that leading wave measurements fall within the tsunami sample space. At later times, however, there are mismatches between measured data and the simulated results, suggesting that other sources of uncertainty are as relevant as the uncertainty of the studied earthquake characteristics.

A Pilot Tsunami Inundation Forecast System for Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Stewart C. R.; Greenslade, Diana J. M.

2016-12-01

The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) provides a tsunami warning service for Australia. Warnings are currently issued according to a technique that does not include explicit modelling at the coastline, including any potential coastal inundation. This paper investigates the feasibility of developing and implementing tsunami inundation modelling as part of the JATWC warning system. An inundation model was developed for a site in Southeast Australia, on the basis of the availability of bathymetric and topographic data and observations of past tsunamis. The model was forced using data from T2, the operational deep-water tsunami scenario database currently used for generating warnings. The model was evaluated not only for its accuracy but also for its computational speed, particularly with respect to operational applications. Limitations of the proposed forecast processes in the Australian context and areas requiring future improvement are discussed.

Volcanic Tsunami Generation in the Aleutian Arc of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waythomas, C. F.; Watts, P.

2003-12-01

Many of the worlds active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines, and during eruptions the transfer of mass from volcano to sea is a potential source mechanism for tsunamis. Flows of granular material off of volcanoes, such as pyroclastic flow, debris avalanche, and lahar, often deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean that have a large potential tsunami hazard. The deposits of both hot and cold volcanic grain flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by granular subaerial volcanic flows using examples from Aniakchak volcano in southwestern Alaska, and Augustine volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Evidence for far-field tsunami inundation coincident with a major caldera-forming eruption of Aniakchak volcano ca. 3.5 ka has been described and is the basis for one of our case studies. We perform a numerical simulation of the tsunami using a large volume pyroclastic flow as the source mechanism and compare our results to field measurements of tsunami deposits preserved along the north shore of Bristol Bay. Several attributes of the tsunami simulation, such as water flux and wave amplitude, are reasonable predictors of tsunami deposit thickness and generally agree with the field evidence for tsunami inundation. At Augustine volcano, geological investigations suggest that as many as 14 large volcanic-rock avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during the 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. By analogy with the 1883 event, previous studies concluded that tsunamis could have been generated many times in the past. If so, geological evidence of tsunamis, such as tsunami deposits on land, should be found in the area around Augustine Island. Paradoxically, unequivocal evidence for tsunami inundation has been found. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region and a future tsunami from the volcano would have devastating consequences to villages, towns, oil-production facilities, and the fishing industry, especially if it occurred at high tide (the tidal range in this area is about 5 m). Numerical simulation experiments of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation using a subaerial debris avalanche source at Augustine volcano indicate only modest wave generation because of the shallow water surrounding the volcano (maximum water depth about 25 m). Lahar flows produced during eruptions at snow and ice clad volcanoes in the Aleutian arc also deliver copious amounts of sediment to the sea. These flows only rarely transform to subaqueous debris flows that may become tsunamigenic. However, the accumulation of loose, unconsolidated sediment on the continental shelf may lead to subaqueous debris flows and landslides if these deposits become mobilized by large earthquakes. Tsunamis produced by this mechanism could potentially reach coastlines all along the Pacific Rim. Finally, recent work in the western Aleutian Islands indicates that many of the island volcanoes in this area have experienced large-scale flank collapse. Because these volcanoes are surrounded by deep water, the tsunami hazard associated with a future sector collapse could be significant.

U.S. Tsunami Information technology (TIM) Modernization: Performance Assessment of Tsunamigenic Earthquake Discrimination System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagerty, M. T.; Lomax, A.; Hellman, S. B.; Whitmore, P.; Weinstein, S.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Knight, W. R.

2015-12-01

Tsunami warning centers must rapidly decide whether an earthquake is likely to generate a destructive tsunami in order to issue a tsunami warning quickly after a large event. For very large events (Mw > 8 or so), magnitude and location alone are sufficient to warrant an alert. However, for events of smaller magnitude (e.g., Mw ~ 7.5), particularly for so-called "tsunami earthquakes", magnitude alone is insufficient to issue an alert and other measurements must be rapidly made and used to assess tsunamigenic potential. The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). We (ISTI) are responsible for implementing the seismic monitoring components in this new system, including real-time seismic data collection and seismic processing. The seismic data processor includes a variety of methods aimed at real-time discrimination of tsunamigenic events, including: Mwp, Me, slowness (Theta), W-phase, mantle magnitude (Mm), array processing and finite-fault inversion. In addition, it contains the ability to designate earthquake scenarios and play the resulting synthetic seismograms through the processing system. Thus, it is also a convenient tool that integrates research and monitoring and may be used to calibrate and tune the real-time monitoring system. Here we show results of the automated processing system for a large dataset of subduction zone earthquakes containing recent tsunami earthquakes and we examine the accuracy of the various discrimation methods and discuss issues related to their successful real-time application.

Airburst-Generated Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Marsha; Goodman, Jonathan

2018-04-01

This paper examines the questions of whether smaller asteroids that burst in the air over water can generate tsunamis that could pose a threat to distant locations. Such airburst-generated tsunamis are qualitatively different than the more frequently studied earthquake-generated tsunamis, and differ as well from tsunamis generated by asteroids that strike the ocean. Numerical simulations are presented using the shallow water equations in several settings, demonstrating very little tsunami threat from this scenario. A model problem with an explicit solution that demonstrates and explains the same phenomena found in the computations is analyzed. We discuss the question of whether compressibility and dispersion are important effects that should be included, and show results from a more sophisticated model problem using the linearized Euler equations that begins to addresses this.

The meteorite impact-induced tsunami hazard.

PubMed

Wünnemann, K; Weiss, R

2015-10-28

When a cosmic object strikes the Earth, it most probably falls into an ocean. Depending on the impact energy and the depth of the ocean, a large amount of water is displaced, forming a temporary crater in the water column. Large tsunami-like waves originate from the collapse of the cavity in the water and the ejecta splash. Because of the far-reaching destructive consequences of such waves, an oceanic impact has been suggested to be more severe than a similar-sized impact on land; in other words, oceanic impacts may punch over their weight. This review paper summarizes the process of impact-induced wave generation and subsequent propagation, whether the wave characteristic differs from tsunamis generated by other classical mechanisms, and what methods have been applied to quantify the consequences of an oceanic impact. Finally, the impact-induced tsunami hazard will be evaluated by means of the Eltanin impact event. © 2015 The Author(s).

Modeling of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Tsunami and its Impacts on Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, K.; Yamazaki, Y.; Roeber, V.; Lay, T.

2011-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake (Mw 9.0) generated a destructive tsunami along the entire Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. The tsunami, which registered 6.7 m amplitude at a coastal GPS gauge and 1.75 m at an open-ocean DART buoy, triggered warnings across the Pacific. The waves reached Hawaii 7 hours after the earthquake and caused localized damage and persistent coastal oscillations along the island chain. Several tide gauges and a DART buoy west of Hawaii Island recorded clear signals of the tsunami. The Tsunami Observer Program of Hawaii State Civil Defense immediately conducted field surveys to gather runup and inundation data on Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and Hawaii Island. The extensive global seismic networks and geodetic instruments allows evaluation and validation of finite fault solutions for the tsunami modeling. We reconstruct the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami using the long-wave model NEOWAVE (Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs) and a finite fault solution based on inversion of teleseismic P waves. The depth-integrated model describes dispersive waves through the non-hydrostatic pressure and vertical velocity, which also account for tsunami generation from time histories of seafloor deformation. The semi-implicit, staggered finite difference model captures flow discontinuities associated with bores or hydraulic jumps through the momentum-conserved advection scheme. Four levels of two-way nested grids in spherical coordinates allow description of tsunami evolution processes of different time and spatial scales for investigation of the impacts around the Hawaiian Islands. The model results are validated with DART data across the Pacific as well as tide gauge and runup measurements in Hawaii. Spectral analysis of the computed surface elevation reveals a series of resonance modes over the insular shelf and slope complex along the archipelago. Resonance oscillations provide an explanation for the localized impacts and the persistent wave activities in the aftermath. The model results provide insights into effects of fringing reefs, which are present along 70% of Hawaii's coastlines, on tsunami transformation and runup processes. This case study improves our understanding of tsunamis in tropical island environment and validates the modeling capability to predict their impacts for hazard mitigation and emergency management.

Preliminary investigation of the hazard faced by Western Australia from tsunami generated along the Sunda Arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burbidge, D.; Cummins, P. R.

2005-12-01

Since the Boxing Day tsunami various countries surrounding the Indian Ocean have been investigating the potential hazard from trans-Indian Ocean tsunami generated along the Sunda Arc, south of Indonesia. This study presents some preliminary estimates of the tsunami hazard faced by Western Australia from tsunami generated along the Arc. To estimate the hazard, a suite of tsunami spaced evenly along the subduction zone to the south of Indonesia were numerically modelled. Offshore wave heights from tsunami generated in this region are significantly higher along northwestern part of the Western Australian coast from Exmouth to the Kimberly than they are along the rest of the coast south of Exmouth. Due to the offshore bathymetry, the area around Onslow in particular may face a higher tsunami than other areas the West Australian coast. Earthquakes between Java and Timor are likely to produce the greatest hazard to northwest WA. Earthquakes off Sumatra are likely the main source of tsunami hazard to locations south of Exmouth, however the hazard here is likely to be lower than that along the north western part of the West Australian coast. Tsunami generated by other sources (eg large intra-plate events, volcanoes, landslides and asteroids) could threaten other parts of the coast.

Tsunamis and splay fault dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wendt, J.; Oglesby, D.D.; Geist, E.L.

2009-01-01

The geometry of a fault system can have significant effects on tsunami generation, but most tsunami models to date have not investigated the dynamic processes that determine which path rupture will take in a complex fault system. To gain insight into this problem, we use the 3D finite element method to model the dynamics of a plate boundary/splay fault system. We use the resulting ground deformation as a time-dependent boundary condition for a 2D shallow-water hydrodynamic tsunami calculation. We find that if me stress distribution is homogeneous, rupture remains on the plate boundary thrust. When a barrier is introduced along the strike of the plate boundary thrust, rupture propagates to the splay faults, and produces a significantly larger tsunami man in the homogeneous case. The results have implications for the dynamics of megathrust earthquakes, and also suggest mat dynamic earthquake modeling may be a useful tool in tsunami researcn. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Pyroclastic Flow Generated Tsunami Waves Detected by CALIPSO Borehole Strainmeters at Soufriere Hills, Montserrat During Massive Dome Collapse: Numerical Simulations and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Boskirk, E. J.; Voight, B.; Watts, P.; Widiwijayanti, C.; Mattioli, G. S.; Elsworth, D.; Hidayat, D.; Linde, A.; Malin, P.; Neuberg, J.; Sacks, S.; Shalev, E.; Sparks, R. J.; Young, S. R.

2004-12-01

The July 12-13, 2003 eruption (dome collapse plus explosions) of Soufriere Hills Volcano in Montserrat, WI, is the largest historical lava dome collapse with ˜120 million cubic meters of the dome lost. Pyroclastic flows entered the sea at 18:00 AST 12 July at the Tar River Valley (TRV) and continued until the early hours of 13 July. Low-amplitude tsunamis were reported at Antigua and Guadaloupe soon after the dome collapse. At the time of eruption, four CALIPSO borehole-monitoring stations were in the process of being installed, and three very-broad-band Sacks-Evertson dilatometers were operational and recorded the event at 50 sps. The strongest strain signals were recorded at the Trants site, 5 km north of the TRV entry zone, suggesting tsunami waves >1 m high. Debris strandlines closer to TRV recorded runup heights as much as 8 m. We test the hypothesis that the strain signal is related to tsunami waves generated by successive pyroclastic flows induced during the dome collapse. Tsunami simulation models have been generated using GEOWAVE, which uses simple physics to recreate waves generated by idealized pyroclastic flows entering the sea at TRV. Each simulation run contains surface wave amplitude gauges located in key positions to the three borehole sites. These simulated wave amplitudes and periods are compared quantitatively with the data recorded by the dilatometers and with field observations of wave runup, to elucidate the dynamics of pyroclastic flow tsunami genesis and its propagation in shallow ocean water.

Physical modelling of tsunamis generated by three-dimensional deformable granular landslides on planar and conical island slopes

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events recorded, yet critically important field data related to the landslide motion and tsunami evolution remain lacking. Landslide-generated tsunami source and propagation scenarios are physically modelled in a three-dimensional tsunami wave basin. A unique pneumatic landslide tsunami generator was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The landslides were generated on a planar hill slope and divergent convex conical hill slope to study lateral hill slope effects on the wave characteristics. The leading wave crest amplitude generated on a planar hill slope is larger on average than the leading wave crest generated on a convex conical hill slope, whereas the leading wave trough and second wave crest amplitudes are smaller. Between 1% and 24% of the landslide kinetic energy is transferred into the wave train. Cobble landslides transfer on average 43% more kinetic energy into the wave train than corresponding gravel landslides. Predictive equations for the offshore propagating wave amplitudes, periods, celerities and lengths generated by landslides on planar and divergent convex conical hill slopes are derived, which allow an initial rapid tsunami hazard assessment. PMID:27274697

Physical modelling of tsunamis generated by three-dimensional deformable granular landslides on planar and conical island slopes.

PubMed

McFall, Brian C; Fritz, Hermann M

2016-04-01

Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events recorded, yet critically important field data related to the landslide motion and tsunami evolution remain lacking. Landslide-generated tsunami source and propagation scenarios are physically modelled in a three-dimensional tsunami wave basin. A unique pneumatic landslide tsunami generator was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The landslides were generated on a planar hill slope and divergent convex conical hill slope to study lateral hill slope effects on the wave characteristics. The leading wave crest amplitude generated on a planar hill slope is larger on average than the leading wave crest generated on a convex conical hill slope, whereas the leading wave trough and second wave crest amplitudes are smaller. Between 1% and 24% of the landslide kinetic energy is transferred into the wave train. Cobble landslides transfer on average 43% more kinetic energy into the wave train than corresponding gravel landslides. Predictive equations for the offshore propagating wave amplitudes, periods, celerities and lengths generated by landslides on planar and divergent convex conical hill slopes are derived, which allow an initial rapid tsunami hazard assessment.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the southern Colombian Pacific basin and a proposal to regenerate a previous barrier island as protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Gonzalez, M.

2014-05-01

In this study, the tsunami hazard posed to 120 000 inhabitants of Tumaco (Colombia) is assessed, and an evaluation and analysis of regenerating the previous El Guano Island for tsunami protection is conducted. El Guano Island was a sandy barrier island in front of the city of Tumaco until its disappearance during the tsunami of 1979; the island is believed to have played a protective role, substantially reducing the scale of the disaster. The analysis is conducted by identifying seismotectonic parameters and focal mechanisms of tsunami generation in the area, determining seven potential generation sources, applying a numerical model for tsunami generation and propagation, and evaluating the effect of tsunamis on Tumaco. The results show that in the current situation, this area is vulnerable to impact and flooding by tsunamis originating nearby. El Guano Island was found to markedly reduce flood levels and the energy flux of tsunami waves in Tumaco during the 1979 tsunami. By reducing the risk of flooding due to tsunamis, the regeneration and morphological modification of El Guano Island would help to protect Tumaco.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the southern Colombian Pacific Basin and a proposal to regenerate a previous barrier island as protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Gonzalez, M.

2013-04-01

In this study, the tsunami hazard posed to 120 000 inhabitants of Tumaco (Colombia) is assessed, and an evaluation and analysis of regenerating the previous El Guano Island for tsunami protection is conducted. El Guano Island was a sandy barrier island in front of the city of Tumaco until its disappearance during the tsunami of 1979; the island is believed to have played a protective role, substantially reducing the scale of the disaster. The analysis is conducted by identifying seismotectonic parameters and focal mechanisms of tsunami generation in the area, determining seven potential generation sources, applying a numerical model for tsunami generation and propagation, and evaluating the effect of tsunamis on Tumaco. The results show that in the current situation, this area is vulnerable to impact and flooding by tsunamis originating nearby. El Guano Island was found to markedly reduce flood levels and the energy flux of tsunami waves in Tumaco during the 1979 tsunami. To reduce the risk of flooding due to tsunamis, the regeneration and morphological modification of El Guano Island would help to protect Tumaco.

Noise Reduction of Ocean-Bottom Pressure Data Toward Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsushima, H.; Hino, R.

2008-12-01

We discuss a method of noise reduction of ocean-bottom pressure data to be fed into the near-field tsunami forecasting scheme proposed by Tsushima et al. [2008a]. In their scheme, the pressure data is processed in real time as follows: (1) removing ocean tide components by subtracting the sea-level variation computed from a theoretical tide model, (2) applying low-pass digital filter to remove high-frequency fluctuation due to seismic waves, and (3) removing DC-offset and linear-trend component to determine a baseline of relative sea level. However, it turns out this simple method is not always successful in extracting tsunami waveforms from the data, when the observed amplitude is ~1cm. For disaster mitigation, accurate forecasting of small tsunamis is important as well as large tsunamis. Since small tsunami events occur frequently, successful tsunami forecasting of those events are critical to obtain public reliance upon tsunami warnings. As a test case, we applied the data-processing described above to the bottom pressure records containing tsunami with amplitude less than 1 cm which was generated by the 2003 Off-Fukushima earthquake occurring in the Japan Trench subduction zone. The observed pressure variation due to the ocean tide is well explained by the calculated tide signals from NAO99Jb model [Matsumoto et al., 2000]. However, the tide components estimated by BAYTAP-G [Tamura et al., 1991] from the pressure data is more appropriate for predicting and removing the ocean tide signals. In the pressure data after removing the tide variations, there remain pressure fluctuations with frequencies ranging from about 0.1 to 1 mHz and with amplitudes around ~10 cm. These fluctuations distort the estimation of zero-level and linear trend to define relative sea-level variation, which is treated as tsunami waveform in the subsequent analysis. Since the linear trend is estimated from the data prior to the origin time of the earthquake, an artificial linear trend is produced in the processed waveform. This artificial linear trend degrades the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting, although the forecasting result is expected to be robust against the existence of short-period noise [Tsushima et al., 2008a]. Since the bottom pressure show gradual increase (or decrease) in the tsunami source region [Tsushima et al., 2008b], it is important to remove the linear trend not related to the tsunami generation from the data before fed into the analysis. Therefore, the reduction of the noise in sub-mHz band is critical for the forecasting small tsunamis. Applying a kind of frequency filters to eliminate this noise cannot be a solution for this problem because actual tsunami signals may also contain components of this frequency band. We investigate whether any statistical modelings of the noise are effective for reducing the sub-mHz noise.

Maritime Tsunami Hazard Assessment in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K. M.

2012-12-01

The California tsunami program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. Basin resonance and geometric amplification are two reasonably well understood mechanisms for local magnification of tsunami impact in harbors, and are generally the mechanisms investigated when estimating the tsunami hazard potential in a port or harbor. On the other hand, our understanding of and predictive ability for currents is lacking. When a free surface flow is forced through a geometric constriction, it is readily expected that the enhanced potential gradient will drive strong, possibly unstable currents and the associated turbulent coherent structures such as "jets" and "whirlpools"; a simple example would be tidal flow through an inlet channel. However, these fundamentals have not been quantitatively connected with respect to understanding tsunami hazards in ports and harbors. A plausible explanation for this oversight is the observation that these features are turbulent phenomena with spatial and temporal scales much smaller than that of a typical tsunami. The ability to model and then validate these currentsdissect them has only recently become available through the evaluation of dozens of eyewitness accounts and hundreds of videos.developed. In this presentation, we will present ongoing work related to the application of such models to quantify the maritime tsunami hazard in select ports and harbors in California. The development of current-based tsunami hazard maps and safe-offshore-depth delineations will be discussed. We will also present an overview of the challenges in modeling tsunami currents, including capture of turbulent dynamics, coupling with tides, and issues with long-duration simulations. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Tsunami Risk Management in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs): Some Issues, Challenges and Ways Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, Dale; Goff, James

2013-09-01

The Pacific is well known for producing tsunamis, and events such as the 2011 Tōhoku-oki, Japan disaster demonstrate the vulnerability of coastal communities. We review what is known about the current state of tsunami risk management for Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), identify the issues and challenges associated with affecting meaningful tsunami disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts and outline strategies and possible ways forward. Small island states are scattered across the vast Pacific region and these states have to varying degrees been affected by not only large tsunamis originating in circum-Pacific subduction zones, but also more regionally devastating events. Having outlined and described what is meant by the risk management process, the various problems associated with our current understanding of this process are examined. The poorly understood hazard related to local, regional and distant sources is investigated and the dominant focus on seismic events at the expense of other tsunami source types is noted. We reflect on the challenges of undertaking numerical modelling from generation to inundation and specifically detail the problems as they relate to PICTs. This is followed by an exploration of the challenges associated with mapping exposure and estimating vulnerability in low-lying coastal areas. The latter part of the paper is devoted to exploring what mitigation of the tsunami risk can look like and draw upon good practice cases as exemplars of the actions that can be taken from the local to regional level. Importantly, given the diversity of PICTs, no one approach will suit all places. The paper closes by making a series of recommendations to assist PICTs and the wider tsunami research community in thinking through improvements to their tsunami risk management processes and the research that can underpin these efforts.

Open Source Seismic Software in NOAA's Next Generation Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellman, S. B.; Baker, B. I.; Hagerty, M. T.; Leifer, J. M.; Lisowski, S.; Thies, D. A.; Donnelly, B. K.; Griffith, F. P.

2014-12-01

The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a project spearheaded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to update the United States' Tsunami Warning System software currently employed at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (Eva Beach, Hawaii) and the National Tsunami Warning Center (Palmer, Alaska). This entirely open source software project will integrate various seismic processing utilities with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's core software, AWIPS2. For the real-time and near real-time seismic processing aspect of this project, NOAA has elected to integrate the open source portions of GFZ's SeisComP 3 (SC3) processing system into AWIPS2. To provide for better tsunami threat assessments we are developing open source tools for magnitude estimations (e.g., moment magnitude, energy magnitude, surface wave magnitude), detection of slow earthquakes with the Theta discriminant, moment tensor inversions (e.g. W-phase and teleseismic body waves), finite fault inversions, and array processing. With our reliance on common data formats such as QuakeML and seismic community standard messaging systems, all new facilities introduced into AWIPS2 and SC3 will be available as stand-alone tools or could be easily integrated into other real time seismic monitoring systems such as Earthworm, Antelope, etc. Additionally, we have developed a template based design paradigm so that the developer or scientist can efficiently create upgrades, replacements, and/or new metrics to the seismic data processing with only a cursory knowledge of the underlying SC3.

CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX Caribbean and Western Atlantic Tsunami Exercises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Whitmore, P.; Aliaga, B.; Huerfano Moreno, V.

2013-12-01

Over 75 tsunamis have been documented in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions over the past 500 years. While most have been generated by local earthquakes, distant generated tsunamis can also affect the region. For example, waves from the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami were observed in Cuba, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, as well as Antigua, Martinique, Guadalupe and Barbados in the Lesser Antilles. Since 1500, at least 4484 people are reported to have perished in these killer waves. Although the tsunami generated by the 2010 Haiti earthquake claimed only a few lives, in the 1530 El Pilar, Venezuela; 1602 Port Royale, Jamaica; 1918 Puerto Rico; and 1946 Samaná, Dominican Republic tsunamis the death tolls ranged to over a thousand. Since then, there has been an explosive increase in residents, visitors, infrastructure, and economic activity along the coastlines, increasing the potential for human and economic loss. It has been estimated that on any day, upwards of more than 500,000 people could be in harm's way just along the beaches, with hundreds of thousands more working and living in the tsunamis hazard zones. Given the relative infrequency of tsunamis, exercises are a valuable tool to test communications, evaluate preparedness and raise awareness. Exercises in the Caribbean are conducted under the framework of the UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) and the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. On March 23, 2011, 34 countries and territories participated in the first CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX regional tsunami exercise, while in the second exercise on March 20, 2013 a total of 45 countries and territories participated. 481 organizations (almost 200 more than in 2011) also registered to receive the bulletins issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center and/or the Puerto Rico Seismic Network. The CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX 13 scenario simulated a tsunami generated by a magnitude 8.5 earthquake originating north of Oranjestad, Aruba in the Caribbean Sea. For the first time earthquake impact was included in addition to expected tsunami impact. The initial message was issued by the warning centers over the established channels, while different mechanisms were then used by participants for further dissemination. The enhanced PTWC tsunami products for the Caribbean were also made available to the participants. To provide feedback on the exercise an online survey tool with 85 questions was used. The survey demonstrated satisfaction with exercise, timely receipt of bulletins and interest in the enhanced PTWC products. It also revealed that while 93% of the countries had an activation and response process, only 59% indicated that they also had an emergency response plan for tsunamis and even fewer had tsunami evacuation plans and inundation maps. Given that 80% of those surveyed indicated that CARIBE WAVE should be conducted annually, CARIBE EWS decided that the next exercise be held on March 26, 2014, instead of waiting until 2015.

New approach to analysis of strongest earthquakes with upper-value magnitude in subduction zones and induced by them catastrophic tsunamis on examples of catastrophic events in 21 century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garagash, I. A.; Lobkovsky, L. I.; Mazova, R. Kh.

2012-04-01

The study of generation of strongest earthquakes with upper-value magnitude (near above 9) and induced by them catastrophic tsunamis, is performed by authors on the basis of new approach to the generation process, occurring in subduction zones under earthquake. The necessity of performing of such studies is connected with recent 11 March 2011 catastrophic underwater earthquake close to north-east Japan coastline and following it catastrophic tsunami which had led to vast victims and colossal damage for Japan. The essential importance in this study is determined by unexpected for all specialists the strength of earthquake occurred (determined by magnitude M = 9), inducing strongest tsunami with wave height runup on the beach up to 10 meters. The elaborated by us model of interaction of ocean lithosphere with island-arc blocks in subduction zones, with taking into account of incomplete stress discharge at realization of seismic process and further accumulation of elastic energy, permits to explain arising of strongest mega-earthquakes, such as catastrophic earthquake with source in Japan deep-sea trench in March, 2011. In our model, the wide possibility for numerical simulation of dynamical behaviour of underwater seismic source is provided by kinematical model of seismic source as well as by elaborated by authors numerical program for calculation of tsunami wave generation by dynamical and kinematical seismic sources. The method obtained permits take into account the contribution of residual tectonic stress in lithosphere plates, leading to increase of earthquake energy, which is usually not taken into account up to date.

Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

2016-04-01

High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message by the WERA radars to TEWS. The radar measurements can be used to confirm a pre-warning and raise a tsunami alert. The output data of WERA processing software can be easily integrated into existing TEWS due to flexible data format, fast update rate and quality control of measurements. The archived radar data can be used for further hazard analysis and research purposes. The newly launched Tsunami Warning Center in Oman is one of the most sophisticated tsunami warning system world-wide applying a mix of well proven state-of-the-art subsystems. It allows the acquisition of data from many different sensor systems including seismic stations, GNSS, tide gauges, and WERA ocean radars in one acquisition system providing access to all sensor data via a common interface. The TEWS in Oman also integrates measurements of a modern network of HF ocean radars to verify tsunami simulations, which give additional scenario quality information and confirmation to the decision support.

Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards in Kuwait from Possible Earthquake and Landslide Sources considering Effect of Natural Tide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latcharote, P.

2016-12-01

Kuwait is one of the most important oil producers to the world and most of population and many vital facilities are located along the coasts. However, even with low or unknown tsunami risk, it is important to investigate tsunami hazards in this country to ensure safety of life and sustain the global economy. This study aimed to evaluate tsunami hazards along the coastal areas of Kuwait from both earthquake and landslide sources using numerical modeling. Tsunami generation and propagation was simulated using the two-layer model and the TUNAMI model. Four cases of earthquake scenarios are expected to generate tsunami along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) based on historical events and worst cases possible to simulate tsunami propagation to the coastal areas of the Arabian Gulf. Case 1 (Mw 8.3) and Case 2 (Mw 8.3) are the replication of the 1945 Makran earthquake, whereas Case 3 (Mw 8.6) and Case 4 (Mw 9.0) are the worst-case scenarios. Tsunami numerical simulation was modelled with mesh size 30 arc-second using bathymetry and topography data from GEBCO. Preliminary results suggested that tsunamis generated by Case 1 and Case 2 will impose very small effects to Kuwait (< 0.1 m) while Case 3 and Case 4 can generate maximum tsunami amplitude up to 0.3 m to 1.0 m after 12 hours from the earthquake. In addition, this study considered tsunamis generated by landslide along the opposite Iranian coast of Kuwait bay. To preliminarily assess tsunami hazards, coastal landslides were assumed occurred at the volume of 1.0-2.0 km3 at three possible locations from their topographic features. The preliminary results revealed that tsunami generated by coastal landslides could impose a significant tsunami impact to Kuwait having maximum tsunami amplitude at the Falika Island in front of Kuwait bay and Azzour power and desalination plant about 0.5 m- 1.1 m depending on landslide volume and energy dissipation. Future works will include more accuracy of tsunami numerical simulation with higher resolution of bathymetry and topography data in order to investigate tsunami inundation. Furthermore, detailed analysis on possible landslide sources will be performed by means of 3D-slope stability analysis in order to know the exact locations and landslide volumes taking into account the geological conditions, such as surface elevation and soil property data.

Earthquake and submarine landslide tsunamis: how can we tell the difference? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tappin, D. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Harris, J.; Geller, R. J.; Masterlark, T.; Kirby, J. T.; Ma, G.; Shi, F.

2013-12-01

Several major recent events have shown the tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures (SMF), i.e., submarine landslides. In 1992 a small earthquake triggered landslide generated a tsunami over 25 meters high on Flores Island. In 1998 another small, earthquake-triggered, sediment slump-generated tsunami up to 15 meters high devastated the local coast of Papua New Guinea killing 2,200 people. It was this event that led to the recognition of the importance of marine geophysical data in mapping the architecture of seabed sediment failures that could be then used in modeling and validating the tsunami generating mechanism. Seabed mapping of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake rupture zone demonstrated, however, that large, if not great, earthquakes do not necessarily cause major seabed failures, but that along some convergent margins frequent earthquakes result in smaller sediment failures that are not tsunamigenic. Older events, such as Messina, 1908, Makran, 1945, Alaska, 1946, and Java, 2006, all have the characteristics of SMF tsunamis, but for these a SMF source has not been proven. When the 2011 tsunami struck Japan, it was generally assumed that it was directly generated by the earthquake. The earthquake has some unusual characteristics, such as a shallow rupture that is somewhat slow, but is not a 'tsunami earthquake.' A number of simulations of the tsunami based on an earthquake source have been published, but in general the best results are obtained by adjusting fault rupture models with tsunami wave gauge or other data so, to the extent that they can model the recorded tsunami data, this demonstrates self-consistency rather than validation. Here we consider some of the existing source models of the 2011 Japan event and present new tsunami simulations based on a combination of an earthquake source and an SMF mapped from offshore data. We show that the multi-source tsunami agrees well with available tide gauge data and field observations and the wave data from offshore buoys, and that the SMF generated the large runups in the Sanriku region (northern Tohoku). Our new results for the 2011 Tohoku event suggest that care is required in using tsunami wave and tide gauge data to both model and validate earthquake tsunami sources. They also suggest a potential pitfall in the use of tsunami waveform inversion from tide gauges and buoys to estimate the size and spatial characteristics of earthquake rupture. If the tsunami source has a significant SMF component such studies may overestimate earthquake magnitude. Our seabed mapping identifies other large SMFs off Sanriku that have the potential to generate significant tsunamis and which should be considered in future analyses of the tsunami hazard in Japan. The identification of two major SMF-generated tsunamis (PNG and Tohoku), especially one associated with a M9 earthquake, is important in guiding future efforts at forecasting and mitigating the tsunami hazard from large megathrust plus SMF events both in Japan and globally.

Impact-generated Tsunamis: An Over-rated Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melosh, H. J.

2003-01-01

A number of authors have suggested that oceanic waves (tsunami) created by the impact of relatively small asteroids into the Earth's oceans might cause widespread devastation to coastal cities. If correct, this suggests that asteroids > 100 m in diameter may pose a serious hazard to humanity and could require a substantial expansion of the current efforts to identify earth-crossing asteroids > 1 km in diameter. The debate on this hazard was recently altered by the release of a document previously inaccessible to the scientific community. In 1968 the US Office of Naval Research commissioned a summary of several decades of research into the hazard proposed by waves generated by nuclear explosions in the ocean. Authored by tsunami expert William Van Dorn, this 173-page report entitled Handbook of Explosion-Generated Water Waves affords new insight into the process of impact wave formation, propagation, and run up onto the shoreline.

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hornbach, Matthew J.; Braudy, Nicole; Briggs, Richard W.; Cormier, Marie-Helene; Davis, Marcy B.; Diebold, John B.; Dieudonne, Nicole; Douilly, Roby; Frohlich, Cliff; Gulick, Sean P.S.; Johnson, Harold E.; Mann, Paul; McHugh, Cecilia; Ryan-Mishkin, Katherine; Prentice, Carol S.; Seeber, Leonardo; Sorlien, Christopher C.; Steckler, Michael S.; Symithe, Steeve Julien; Taylor, Frederick W.; Templeton, John

2010-01-01

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake's location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunami - a risk that is underestimated at present.

Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.

2014-01-01

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.

Sources of information for tsunami forecasting in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Ristau, J. P.; D'Anastasio, E.; Wang, X.

2013-12-01

Tsunami science has evolved considerably in the last two decades due to technological advancements which also helped push for better numerical modelling of the tsunami phases (generation to inundation). The deployment of DART buoys has also been a considerable milestone in tsunami forecasting. Tsunami forecasting is one of the parts that tsunami modelling feeds into and is related to response, preparedness and planning. Usually tsunami forecasting refers to short-term forecasting that takes place in real-time after a tsunami has or appears to have been generated. In this report we refer to all types of forecasting (short-term or long-term) related to work in advance of a tsunami impacting a coastline that would help in response, planning or preparedness. We look at the standard types of data (seismic, GPS, water level) that are available in New Zealand for tsunami forecasting, how they are currently being used, other ways to use these data and provide recommendations for better utilisation. The main findings are: -Current investigations of the use of seismic parameters quickly obtained after an earthquake, have potential to provide critical information about the tsunamigenic potential of earthquakes. Further analysis of the most promising methods should be undertaken to determine a path to full implementation. -Network communication of the largest part of the GPS network is not currently at a stage that can provide sufficient data early enough for tsunami warning. It is believed that it has potential, but changes including data transmission improvements may have to happen before real-time processing oriented to tsunami early warning is implemented on the data that is currently provided. -Tide gauge data is currently under-utilised for tsunami forecasting. Spectral analysis, modal analysis based on identified modes and arrival times extracted from the records can be useful in forecasting. -The current study is by no means exhaustive of the ways the different types of data can be used. We are only presenting an overview of what can be done. More extensive studies with each one of the types of data collected by GeoNet and other relevant networks will help improve tsunami forecasting in New Zealand.

Simulation of landslide and tsunami of the 1741 Oshima-Oshima eruption in Hokkaido, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioki, K.; Yanagisawa, H.; Tanioka, Y.; Kawakami, G.; Kase, Y.; Nishina, K.; Hirose, W.; Ishimaru, S.

2017-12-01

The 1741 tsunami was generated by the Oshima-Oshima sector collapse in the southwestern Hokkaido, Japan. The tsunami caused great damage along the coast of Japan Sea in Oshima and Tsugaru peninsula and was the largest scale generated in the Japan sea. By the survey of tsunami deposits, at the coast of Okushiri Island and Hiyama in Hokkaido, tsunami deposits of this tsunami were found. In this study, the landslide and tsunami by the Oshima-Oshima eruption were modeled to explain distribution of debris deposits, tsunami heights by historical records, and distribution of tsunami deposits. First, region of landslide and debris deposits were made out from the bathymetry based on the bathymetry survey data (Satake and Kato, 2001) in the north slope of Oshima-Oshima. In addition, topography before the sector collapse and landslide volume were re-estimated. The volume of landslide was estimated at 2.2 km3. Based on those data, the landslide and tsunami were simulated using two-layer model considered soil mass and water mass. The model was made improvements the integrated model of landslide and tsunami (Yanagisawa et al., 2014). The angle of internal friction was calculated 4 cases, included the bottom friction term in soil mass, to affect the movement of landslide. The Manning's roughness coefficient was calculated 5 cases, included the bottom friction term in soil mass, to affect the generation of tsunami. By the parameter study, optimal solutions were found. As the results, soil mass slid slowly submarine slope and stopped after about 15 minutes. Distribution of computed debris deposits agree relatively well with region of debris deposits made out from the bathymetry. On the other hand, the first wave of tsunami was generated during 1 minute that soil mass was sliding. Calculated tsunami heights match with historical records along the coast of Okushiri and Hiyama in Hokkaido. Calculated inundation area of tsunami cover distribution of tsunami deposits found by tsunami deposits survey in Okushiri and Hiyama coast.

A computationally fast, reduced model for simulating landslide dynamics and tsunamis generated by landslides in natural terrains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, F.

2016-12-01

Landslide hazards such as fast-moving debris flows, slow-moving landslides, and other mass flows cause numerous fatalities, injuries, and damage. Landslide occurrences in fjords, bays, and lakes can additionally generate tsunamis with locally extremely high wave heights and runups. Two-dimensional depth-averaged models can successfully simulate the entire lifecycle of the three-dimensional landslide dynamics and tsunami propagation efficiently and accurately with the appropriate assumptions. Landslide rheology is defined using viscous fluids, visco-plastic fluids, and granular material to account for the possible landslide source materials. Saturated and unsaturated rheologies are further included to simulate debris flow, debris avalanches, mudflows, and rockslides respectively. The models are obtained by reducing the fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with the internal rheological definition of the landslide material, the water body, and appropriate scaling assumptions to obtain the depth-averaged two-dimensional models. The landslide and tsunami models are coupled to include the interaction between the landslide and the water body for tsunami generation. The reduced models are solved numerically with a fast semi-implicit finite-volume, shock-capturing based algorithm. The well-balanced, positivity preserving algorithm accurately accounts for wet-dry interface transition for the landslide runout, landslide-water body interface, and the tsunami wave flooding on land. The models are implemented as a General-Purpose computing on Graphics Processing Unit-based (GPGPU) suite of models, either coupled or run independently within the suite. The GPGPU implementation provides up to 1000 times speedup over a CPU-based serial computation. This enables simulations of multiple scenarios of hazard realizations that provides a basis for a probabilistic hazard assessment. The models have been successfully validated against experiments, past studies, and field data for landslides and tsunamis.

Differences in tsunami generation between the December 26, 2004 and March 28, 2005 Sumatra earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Bilek, S.L.; Arcas, D.; Titov, V.V.

2006-01-01

Source parameters affecting tsunami generation and propagation for the Mw > 9.0 December 26, 2004 and the Mw = 8.6 March 28, 2005 earthquakes are examined to explain the dramatic difference in tsunami observations. We evaluate both scalar measures (seismic moment, maximum slip, potential energy) and finite-source repre-sentations (distributed slip and far-field beaming from finite source dimensions) of tsunami generation potential. There exists significant variability in local tsunami runup with respect to the most readily available measure, seismic moment. The local tsunami intensity for the December 2004 earthquake is similar to other tsunamigenic earthquakes of comparable magnitude. In contrast, the March 2005 local tsunami was deficient relative to its earthquake magnitude. Tsunami potential energy calculations more accurately reflect the difference in tsunami severity, although these calculations are dependent on knowledge of the slip distribution and therefore difficult to implement in a real-time system. A significant factor affecting tsunami generation unaccounted for in these scalar measures is the location of regions of seafloor displacement relative to the overlying water depth. The deficiency of the March 2005 tsunami seems to be related to concentration of slip in the down-dip part of the rupture zone and the fact that a substantial portion of the vertical displacement field occurred in shallow water or on land. The comparison of the December 2004 and March 2005 Sumatra earthquakes presented in this study is analogous to previous studies comparing the 1952 and 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquakes and tsunamis, in terms of the effect slip distribution has on local tsunamis. Results from these studies indicate the difficulty in rapidly assessing local tsunami runup from magnitude and epicentral location information alone.

Tsunami geology in paleoseismology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuichi Nishimura,; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2015-01-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). Tsunamis are observed not only on the margin of oceans but also in lakes. The majority of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but other events that displace water such as landslides and volcanic eruptions can also generate tsunamis. These non-earthquake tsunamis occur less frequently than earthquake tsunamis; it is, therefore, very important to find and study geologic evidence for past eruption and submarine landslide triggered tsunami events, as their rare occurrence may lead to risks being underestimated. Geologic investigations of tsunamis have historically relied on earthquake geology. Geophysicists estimate the parameters of vertical coseismic displacement that tsunami modelers use as a tsunami's initial condition. The modelers then let the simulated tsunami run ashore. This approach suffers from the relationship between the earthquake and seafloor displacement, the pertinent parameter in tsunami generation, being equivocal. In recent years, geologic investigations of tsunamis have added sedimentology and micropaleontology, which focus on identifying and interpreting depositional and erosional features of tsunamis. For example, coastal sediment may contain deposits that provide important information on past tsunami events [190, 191]. In some cases, a tsunami is recorded by a single sand layer. Elsewhere, tsunami deposits can consist of complex layers of mud, sand, and boulders, containing abundant stratigraphic evidence for sediment reworking and redeposition. These onshore sediments are geologic evidence for tsunamis and are called ‘tsunami deposits’ (Figs. 26 and 27). Tsunami deposits can be classified into two groups: modern tsunami deposits and paleotsunami deposits. A modern tsunami deposit is a deposit whose source event is known. A paleotsunami deposit is a deposit whose age is estimated and has a source that is either inferred to be a historical event or is unknown.

Post-crisis analysis of an ineffective tsunami alert: the 2010 earthquake in Maule, Chile.

PubMed

Soulé, Bastien

2014-04-01

Considering its huge magnitude and its location in a densely populated area of Chile, the Maule seism of 27 February 2010 generated a low amount of victims. However, post-seismic tsunamis were particularly devastating on that day; surprisingly, no full alert was launched, not at the national, regional or local level. This earthquake and associated tsunamis are of interest in the context of natural hazards management as well as crisis management planning. Instead of focusing exclusively on the event itself, this article places emphasis on the process, systems and long-term approach that led the tsunami alert mechanism to be ineffectual. Notably, this perspective reveals interrelated forerunner signs of vulnerability. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

New Tsunami Response, Mitigation, and Recovery Planning "Playbooks" for California (USA) Maritime Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Eskijian, M.; Dengler, L. A.; Ayca, A.; Keen, A.; Admire, A. R.; Siegel, J.; Johnson, L. A.; Curtis, E.; Hornick, M.

2015-12-01

The 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis both struck the California coast offering valuable experience and raised a number of significant issues for harbor masters, port captains, and other maritime entities. There was a general call for more planning products to help guide maritime communities in their tsunami response, mitigation, and recovery activities. The State of California is working with the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), and other tsunami experts to provide communities with new tsunami planning tools to address these issues: Response Playbooks and plans have been developed for ports and harbors identifying potential tsunami current hazards and related damage for various size events. Maps have been generated showing minor, moderate, and severe damage levels that have been linked to current velocity thresholds of 3, 6, and 9 knots, respectively. Knowing this information allows harbor personnel to move ships or strengthen infrastructure prior to the arrival of distant source tsunamis. Damage probability tools and mitigation plans have been created to help reduce tsunami damage by evaluating the survivability of small and large vessels in harbors and ports. These results were compared to the actual damage assessments performed in California and Japan following the 2011 Japanese tsunami. Fragility curves were developed based on current velocity and direction to help harbor and port officials upgrade docks, piles, and related structures. Guidance documents are being generated to help in the development of both local and statewide recovery plans. Additional tools, like post-tsunami sediment and debris movement models, will allow harbors and ports to better understand if and where recovery issues are most likely to occur. Streamlining the regulatory and environmental review process is also a goal of the guidance. These maritime products and procedures are being integrated into guidance through the NTHMP to help other U.S. states/territories/commonwealths develop their own tsunami planning tools. This will lead to more accurate, consistent, and cost-effective tsunami planning strategies within the U.S.

Observation and Modeling of Tsunami-Generated Gravity Waves in the Earth’s Upper Atmosphere

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-08

Observation and modeling of tsunami -generated gravity waves in the earth’s upper atmosphere 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6...ABSTRACT Build a compatible set of models which 1) calculate the spectrum of atmospheric GWs excited by a tsunami (using ocean model data as input...for public release; distribution is unlimited. Observation and modeling of tsunami -generated gravity waves in the earth’s upper atmosphere Sharon

The Contribution of Coseismic Displacements due to Splay Faults Into the Local Wavefield of the 1964 Alaska Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Ruppert, N.; Fisher, M.; West, D.; Hansen, R.

2008-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Information Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska. For many locations in the Gulf of Alaska, the 1964 tsunami generated by the Mw9.2 Great Alaska earthquake may be the worst-case tsunami scenario. We use the 1964 tsunami observations to verify our numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup, therefore it is essential to use an adequate source function of the 1964 earthquake to reduce the level of uncertainty in the modeling results. It was shown that the 1964 co-seismic slip occurred both on the megathrust and crustal splay faults (Plafker, 1969). Plafker (2006) suggested that crustal faults were a major contributor to vertical displacements that generated local tsunami waves. Using eyewitness arrival times of the highest observed waves, he suggested that the initial tsunami wave was higher and closer to the shore, than if it was generated by slip on the megathrust. We conduct a numerical study of two different source functions of the 1964 tsunami to test whether the crustal splay faults had significant effects on local tsunami runup heights and arrival times. The first source function was developed by Johnson et al. (1996) through joint inversion of the far-field tsunami waveforms and geodetic data. The authors did not include crustal faults in the inversion, because the contribution of these faults to the far-field tsunami was negligible. The second is the new coseismic displacement model developed by Suito and Freymueller (2008, submitted). This model extends the Montague Island fault farther along the Kenai Peninsula coast and thus reduces slip on the megathrust in that region. We also use an improved geometry of the Patton Bay fault based on the deep crustal seismic reflection and earthquake data. We propagate tsunami waves generated by both source models across the Pacific Ocean and record wave amplitudes at the locations of the tide gages that recorded the 1964 tsunami. As expected, the two sources produce very similar waveforms in the far field that are also in good agreement with the tide gage records. In order to study the near-field tsunami effects, we will construct embedded telescoping bathymetry grids around tsunami generation area to calculate tsunami arrival times and sea surface heights for both source models of the 1964 earthquake, and use available observation data to verify the model results.

Specification of Tectonic Tsunami Sources Along the Eastern Aleutian Island Arc and Alaska Peninsula for Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Freymueller, J. T.; Koehler, R.

2013-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Information Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska along several segments of the Aleutian Megathrust, each having a unique seismic history and tsunami generation potential. Accurate identification and characterization of potential tsunami sources is a critical component of our project. As demonstrated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami, correct estimation of the maximum size event for a given segment of the subduction zone is particularly important. In that event, unexpectedly large slip occurred approximately updip of the epicenter of the main shock, based on seafloor GPS and seafloor pressure gage observations, generating a much larger tsunami than anticipated. This emphasizes the importance of the detailed knowledge of the region-specific subduction processes, and using the most up-to-date geophysical data and research models that define the magnitude range of possible future tsunami events. Our study area extends from the eastern half of the 1957 rupture zone to Kodiak Island, covering the 1946 and 1938 rupture areas, the Shumagin gap, and the western part of the 1964 rupture area. We propose a strategy for generating worst-case credible tsunami scenarios for locations that have a short or nonexistent paleoseismic/paleotsunami record, and in some cases lack modern seismic and GPS data. The potential tsunami scenarios are built based on a discretized plate interface model fit to the Slab 1.0 model geometry. We employ estimates of slip deficit along the Aleutian Megathrust from GPS campaign surveys, the Slab 1.0 interface surface, empirical magnitude-slip relationships, and a numerical code that distributes slip among the subfault elements, calculates coseismic deformations and solves the shallow water equations of tsunami propagation and runup. We define hypothetical asperities along the megathrust and in down-dip direction, and perform a set of sensitivity model runs to identify coseismic deformation patterns resulting in highest runup at a given community. Because of the extra fine discretization of the interface, we can prescribe variable slip patterns, using simple parameters to describe slip variations in the along-strike and down-dip directions. Since it was demonstrated by studies of the 1964 tsunami that changes in slip distribution result in significant variations in the local tsunami wave field, we expect that the near-field tsunami runup in target communities will be highly sensitive to variability of slip along the rupture area. We perform simulations for each source scenario using AEIC's numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by local emergency planners.

Widespread tsunami-like waves of 23-27 June in the Mediterranean and Black Seas generated by high-altitude atmospheric forcing.

PubMed

Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica; Rabinovich, Alexander B; Monserrat, Sebastian

2015-06-29

A series of tsunami-like waves of non-seismic origin struck several southern European countries during the period of 23 to 27 June 2014. The event caused considerable damage from Spain to Ukraine. Here, we show that these waves were long-period ocean oscillations known as meteorological tsunamis which are generated by intense small-scale air pressure disturbances. An unique atmospheric synoptic pattern was tracked propagating eastward over the Mediterranean and the Black seas in synchrony with onset times of observed tsunami waves. This pattern favoured generation and propagation of atmospheric gravity waves that induced pronounced tsunami-like waves through the Proudman resonance mechanism. This is the first documented case of a chain of destructive meteorological tsunamis occurring over a distance of thousands of kilometres. Our findings further demonstrate that these events represent potentially dangerous regional phenomena and should be included in tsunami warning systems.

Widespread tsunami-like waves of 23-27 June in the Mediterranean and Black Seas generated by high-altitude atmospheric forcing

PubMed Central

Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Monserrat, Sebastian

2015-01-01

A series of tsunami-like waves of non-seismic origin struck several southern European countries during the period of 23 to 27 June 2014. The event caused considerable damage from Spain to Ukraine. Here, we show that these waves were long-period ocean oscillations known as meteorological tsunamis which are generated by intense small-scale air pressure disturbances. An unique atmospheric synoptic pattern was tracked propagating eastward over the Mediterranean and the Black seas in synchrony with onset times of observed tsunami waves. This pattern favoured generation and propagation of atmospheric gravity waves that induced pronounced tsunami-like waves through the Proudman resonance mechanism. This is the first documented case of a chain of destructive meteorological tsunamis occurring over a distance of thousands of kilometres. Our findings further demonstrate that these events represent potentially dangerous regional phenomena and should be included in tsunami warning systems. PMID:26119833

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: Multiple sources and global applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grezio, Anita; Babeyko, Andrey; Baptista, Maria Ana; Behrens, Jörn; Costa, Antonio; Davies, Gareth; Geist, Eric L.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; González, Frank I.; Griffin, Jonathan; Harbitz, Carl B.; LeVeque, Randall J.; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Omira, Rachid; Mueller, Christof; Paris, Raphaël; Parsons, Thomas E.; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Selva, Jacopo; Sørensen, Mathilde B.; Thio, Hong Kie

2017-01-01

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grezio, Anita; Babeyko, Andrey; Baptista, Maria Ana; Behrens, Jörn; Costa, Antonio; Davies, Gareth; Geist, Eric L.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; González, Frank I.; Griffin, Jonathan; Harbitz, Carl B.; LeVeque, Randall J.; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Omira, Rachid; Mueller, Christof; Paris, Raphaël.; Parsons, Tom; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Selva, Jacopo; Sørensen, Mathilde B.; Thio, Hong Kie

2017-12-01

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

A Response Function Approach for Rapid Far-Field Tsunami Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolkova, Elena; Nicolsky, Dmitry; Wang, Dailin

2017-08-01

Predicting tsunami impacts at remote coasts largely relies on tsunami en-route measurements in an open ocean. In this work, these measurements are used to generate instant tsunami predictions in deep water and near the coast. The predictions are generated as a response or a combination of responses to one or more tsunameters, with each response obtained as a convolution of real-time tsunameter measurements and a pre-computed pulse response function (PRF). Practical implementation of this method requires tables of PRFs in a 3D parameter space: earthquake location-tsunameter-forecasted site. Examples of hindcasting the 2010 Chilean and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunamis along the US West Coast and beyond demonstrated high accuracy of the suggested technology in application to trans-Pacific seismically generated tsunamis.

Landslides and tsunamis predicted by incompressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) with application to the 1958 Lituya Bay event and idealized experiment.

PubMed

Xenakis, A M; Lind, S J; Stansby, P K; Rogers, B D

2017-03-01

Tsunamis caused by landslides may result in significant destruction of the surroundings with both societal and industrial impact. The 1958 Lituya Bay landslide and tsunami is a recent and well-documented terrestrial landslide generating a tsunami with a run-up of 524 m. Although recent computational techniques have shown good performance in the estimation of the run-up height, they fail to capture all the physical processes, in particular, the landslide-entry profile and interaction with the water. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is a versatile numerical technique for describing free-surface and multi-phase flows, particularly those that exhibit highly nonlinear deformation in landslide-generated tsunamis. In the current work, the novel multi-phase incompressible SPH method with shifting is applied to the Lituya Bay tsunami and landslide and is the first methodology able to reproduce realistically both the run-up and landslide-entry as documented in a benchmark experiment. The method is the first paper to develop a realistic implementation of the physics that in addition to the non-Newtonian rheology of the landslide includes turbulence in the water phase and soil saturation. Sensitivity to the experimental initial conditions is also considered. This work demonstrates the ability of the proposed method in modelling challenging environmental multi-phase, non-Newtonian and turbulent flows.

Landslides and tsunamis predicted by incompressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) with application to the 1958 Lituya Bay event and idealized experiment

PubMed Central

Lind, S. J.; Stansby, P. K.; Rogers, B. D.

2017-01-01

Tsunamis caused by landslides may result in significant destruction of the surroundings with both societal and industrial impact. The 1958 Lituya Bay landslide and tsunami is a recent and well-documented terrestrial landslide generating a tsunami with a run-up of 524 m. Although recent computational techniques have shown good performance in the estimation of the run-up height, they fail to capture all the physical processes, in particular, the landslide-entry profile and interaction with the water. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is a versatile numerical technique for describing free-surface and multi-phase flows, particularly those that exhibit highly nonlinear deformation in landslide-generated tsunamis. In the current work, the novel multi-phase incompressible SPH method with shifting is applied to the Lituya Bay tsunami and landslide and is the first methodology able to reproduce realistically both the run-up and landslide-entry as documented in a benchmark experiment. The method is the first paper to develop a realistic implementation of the physics that in addition to the non-Newtonian rheology of the landslide includes turbulence in the water phase and soil saturation. Sensitivity to the experimental initial conditions is also considered. This work demonstrates the ability of the proposed method in modelling challenging environmental multi-phase, non-Newtonian and turbulent flows. PMID:28413334

Tsunami Modeling of Hikurangi Trench M9 Events: Case Study for Napier, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. R.; Nyst, M.; Farahani, R.; Bryngelson, J.; Lee, R.; Molas, G.

2015-12-01

RMS has developed a tsunami model for New Zealand for the insurance industry to price and to manage their tsunami risks. A key tsunamigenic source for New Zealand is the Hikurangi Trench that lies offshore on the eastside of the North Island. The trench is the result of the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the North Island at a rate of 40-45 mm/yr. Though there have been no M9 historical events on the Hikurangi Trench, events in this magnitude range are considered in the latest version of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2012). The RMS modeling approaches the tsunami lifecycle in three stages: event generation, ocean wave propagation, and coastal inundation. The tsunami event generation is modeled based on seafloor deformation resulting from an event rupture model. The ocean wave propagation and coastal inundation are modeled using a RMS-developed numerical solver, implemented on graphic processing units using a finite-volume approach to approximate two-dimensional, shallow-water wave equations over the ocean and complex topography. As the tsunami waves enter shallow water and approach the coast, the RMS model calculates the propagation of the waves along the wet-dry interface considering variable land friction. The initiation and characteristics of the tsunami are based on the event rupture model. As there have been no historical M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench, this rupture characterization posed unique challenges. This study examined the impacts of a suite of event rupture models to understand the key drivers in the variations in the tsunami inundation footprints. The goal was to develop a suite of tsunamigenic event characterizations that represent a range of potential tsunami outcomes for M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench. The focus of this case study is the Napier region as it represents an important exposure concentration in the region and has experience tsunami inundations in the past including during the 1931 Ms7.8 Hawkes Bay Earthquake.

Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madlazim

2012-06-20

Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a directmore » procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T{sub dur}. T{sub dur} can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus ({mu}) while T{sub dur} may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or {mu}. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/{mu}, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T{sub dur} is proportional L and greater Mo/{mu}. Because Mo/{mu} is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 4-5 min after an earthquake occurs and thus can aid in effective, accuracy and reliable tsunami early warning for Indonesia region.« less

New approaches in geological studies of tsunami deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szczucinski, Witold

2017-04-01

During the last dozen of years tsunamis have appeared to be the most disastrous natural process worldwide. The dramatic, large tsunamis on Boxing Day, 2004 in the Indian Ocean and on March 11, 2011 offshore Japan caused catastrophes listed as the worst in terms of the number of victims and the economic losses, respectively. In the aftermath, they have become a topic of high public and scientific interest. The record of past tsunamis, mainly in form of tsunami deposits, is often the only way to identify tsunami risk at a particular coast due to relatively low frequency of their occurrence. The identification of paleotsunami deposits is often difficult mainly because the tsunami deposits are represented by various sediment types, may be similar to storm deposits or altered by post-depositional processes. There is no simple universal diagnostic set of criteria that can be applied to interpret tsunami deposits with certainty. Thus, there is a need to develop new methods, which would enhance 'classical', mainly sedimentological and stratigraphic approach. The objective of the present contribution is to show recent progress and application of new approaches including geochemistry (Chagué-Goff et al. 2017) and paleogenetics (Szczuciński et al. 2016) in studies of geological impacts of recent tsunamis from various geographical regions, namely in monsoonal-tropical, temperate and polar zones. It is mainly based on own studies of coastal zones affected by 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Thailand, 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami and older paleotsunamis in Japan, catastrophic saltwater inundations at the coasts of Baltic Sea and 2000 landslide-generated tsunami in Vaigat Strait (west Greenland). The study was partly funded by Polish National Science Centre grant No. 2011/01/B/ST10/01553. Chagué-Goff C., Szczuciński W., Shinozaki T., 2017. Applications of geochemistry in tsunami research: A review. Earth-Science Reviews 165: 203-244. Szczuciński W., Pawłowska J., Lejzerowicz F., Nishimura Y., Kokociński M., Majewski W., Nakamura Y., Pawlowski J., 2016. Ancient sedimentary DNA reveals past tsunami deposits. Marine Geology 381: 29-33.

Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2002-01-01

In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a factor of 3 or more. These results indicate that there is substantially more variation in the local tsunami wave field derived from the inherent complexity subduction zone earthquakes than predicted by a simple elastic dislocation model. Probabilistic methods that take into account variability in earthquake rupture processes are likely to yield more accurate assessments of tsunami hazards.

Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koh, Hock Lye, E-mail: kohhl@ucsiuniversity.edu.my; Teh, Su Yean, E-mail: syteh@usm.my; Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che

The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre formore » Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.« less

Tsunami Warning Protocol for Eruptions of Augustine Volcano, Cook Inlet, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Neal, C.; Nyland, D.; Murray, T.; Power, J.

2006-12-01

Augustine is an island volcano that has generated at least one tsunami. During its January 2006 eruption coastal residents of lower Cook Inlet became concerned about tsunami potential. To address this concern, NOAA's West Coast/ Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) jointly developed a tsunami warning protocol for the most likely scenario for tsunami generation at Augustine: a debris avalanche into the Cook Inlet. Tsunami modeling indicates that a wave generated at Augustine volcano could reach coastal communities in approximately 55 minutes. If a shallow seismic event with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred near Augustine and the AVO had set the level of concern color code to orange or red, the WC/ATWC would immediately issue a warning for the lower Cook Inlet. Given the short tsunami travel times involved, potentially affected communities would be provided as much lead time as possible. Large debris avalanches that could trigger a tsunami in lower Cook Inlet are expected to be accompanied by a strong seismic signal. Seismograms produced by these debris avalanches have unique spectral characteristics. After issuing a warning, the WC/ATWC would compare the observed waveform with known debris avalanches, and would consult with AVO to further evaluate the event using AVO's on-island networks (web cameras, seismic network, etc) to refine or cancel the warning. After the 2006 eruptive phase ended, WC/ATWC, with support from AVO and the University of Alaska Tsunami Warning and Environmental Observatory for Alaska program (TWEAK), developed and installed "splash-gauges" which will provide confirmation of tsunami generation.

Combined effects of tectonic and landslide-generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska during the Mw 9.2 1964 earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.J.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Hansen, R.

2011-01-01

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the Mw 9.2 1964 mega thrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in land sliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5 min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211 million m3 (Haeussler et al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269-278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30 min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local land slide generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131-152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559-572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-01-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-08-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Tsunami hazard assessment along the U. S. East Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tajalli Bakhsh, T.; Grilli, S. T.; Harris, J. C.; Kirby, J. T.; Shi, F.; Tehranirad, B.

2012-12-01

In 2005, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) was tasked by Congress to develop tsunami inundation maps for the entire US coastline. This work provides an overview of the modeling work related to the development inundation maps along the US east coast. In this region the paucity of historical tsunami records and lack of paleotsunami observations yields a large uncertainty on the source and magnitude of potential extreme tsunami events, and their related coastal hazard. In the Atlantic Ocean basin significant tsunami hazard may result from far-field earthquakes, such as a repeat of the M8.9 Lisbon 1755 event in the Azores convergence zone, or a hypothetical extreme M9 earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT). Additionally, it is believed that a repeat of one of the large historical collapses, identified at the toe of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma (Canary Islands; i.e., with a maximum volume of 450 km3), could pose a major tsunami hazard to the entire US east coast. Finally, in the near-field, large submarine mass failure (SMF) scars have been mapped by USGS, particularly North of the Carolinas (e.g., Currituck), which are believed to have caused past tsunamis. Large SMFs can be triggered by moderate seismicity (M7 or so), such as can occur on the east coast. In fact, one of the few historical tsunamis that significantly affected this region was caused by the 1929 Grand Bank underwater slide, which was triggered by a M7.2 earthquake. In this work we identify and parameterize all potential tsunami sources affecting the US east coast, and perform simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal impact in a series of increasingly resolved nested grids. Following this methodology, tsunami inundation maps are currently being developed for a few of the most affected areas. In simulations, we use a robust and well-validated Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq long-wave model (FUNWAVE-TVD), on Cartesian or spherical grids. Coseismic tsunami sources are modeled using the standard Okada method. For landslide tsunamis, we first generate tsunami sources using a three-dimensional Navier-Stokes model (THETIS or NHWAVE). These models feature all relevant physical processes, such as frequency dispersion (very important for landslide sources), nonlinear wave effects during shoaling, and dissipation by bottom friction and wave breaking (via a shock-capturing TVD algorithm). In modeling coastal hazard from various sources, we find that tsunamigenic SMFs, which are the nearest tsunami sources and can potentially cause highly focused coastal runup, may control tsunami hazard for many east coast communities north of the Carolinas. In many cases, however, we find that a wide shallow continental shelf may cause significant dissipation of the shorter waves caused by SMFs and hence offer some protection. The accurate modeling of the delicate balance between nonlinear and dissipative processes governing such situations is currently being researched and will be the object of a separate presentation. Additionally, considerable efforts are being devoted to properly parameterizing extreme SMFs, which are also the object of collaborative work with geologists and marine geotechnical experts (reported independently).

Book review: Physics of tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2017-01-01

“Physics of Tsunamis”, second edition, provides a comprehensive analytical treatment of the hydrodynamics associated with the tsunami generation process. The book consists of seven chapters covering 388 pages. Because the subject matter within each chapter is distinct, an abstract appears at the beginning and references appear at the end of each chapter, rather than at the end of the book. Various topics of tsunami physics are examined largely from a theoretical perspective, although there is little information on how the physical descriptions are applied in numerical models.“Physics of Tsunamis”, by B. W. Levin and M. A. Nosov, Second Edition, Springer, 2016; ISBN-10: 33-1933106X, ISBN-13: 978-331933-1065

South American Tsunamis in Lyttelton Harbor, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, Jose C.; Goring, Derek G.

2015-03-01

At 2347 UTC on April 1, 2014 (12:47 pm April 2, 2014 NZDT) an earthquake with a moment magnitude of 8.2 occurred offshore of Iquique in northern Chile. The temblor generated a tsunami that was observed locally and recorded on tide gauges and deep ocean tsunameters close to the source region. While real time modeling based on inverted tsunameter data and finite fault solutions of the earthquake rupture suggested that a damaging far-field tsunami was not expected (and later confirmed), this event nevertheless reminded us of the threat posed to New Zealand by tsunami generated along the west coast of South America and from the Peru/Chile border region in particular. In this paper we quantitatively assess the tsunami hazard at Lyttelton Harbor from South American tsunamis through a review of historical accounts, numerical modeling of past events and analysis of water level records. A sensitivity study for tsunamis generated along the length of the South American Subduction Zone is used to illustrate which section of the subduction zone would generate the strongest response at Lyttelton while deterministic scenario modeling of significant historical South American tsunamis (i.e. 1868, 1877 and 1960) provide a quantitative estimate of the expected effects from possible future great earthquakes along the coast of South America.

The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach

PubMed Central

Dall'Osso, F.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Moore, C.; Summerhayes, S.; Withycombe, G.

2014-01-01

Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney. PMID:25492514

The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach.

PubMed

Dall'Osso, F; Dominey-Howes, D; Moore, C; Summerhayes, S; Withycombe, G

2014-12-10

Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney.

The magnetic fields generated by the tsunami of February 27, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, M. C.; Maus, S.; Neetu, S.; Kuvshinov, A. V.; Chulliat, A.

2010-12-01

It has long been speculated that tsunamis produce measurable perturbations in the magnetic field. Recent deployments of highly accurate magnetometers and the exceptionally deep solar minimum provided ideal conditions to identify these small signals for the tsunami resulting from the strong Chilean earthquake on February 27, 2010. We find that the magnetic observatory measurements on Easter Island, 3500 km west of the epicenter, show a periodic signal of 1 nT, coincident in time with recordings from the local tide gauge. The amplitude of this signal is consistent with the sea level variation caused by the tsunami in the open ocean near Easter Island through a scaling method proposed by Tyler (2005). In order to have a better understanding of this process, we predict the magnetic fields induced by the Chile tsunami using a barotropic-shallow-water model along with a three-dimensional electromagnetic induction code (Kuvshinov et al., 2002). Initial results indicate good agreement between the predicted and observed magnetic signals at Easter Island. The detection of these magnetic signals represents a milestone in understanding tsunami-induced electromagnetic effects. However, magnetospheric disturbances could limit the practical utility of tsunami electromagnetic monitoring to periods of low solar activity.

Lasting Impact of a Tsunami Event on Sediment-Organism Interactions in the Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seike, Koji; Sassa, Shinji; Shirai, Kotaro; Kubota, Kaoru

2018-02-01

Although tsunami sedimentation is a short-term phenomenon, it may control the long-term benthic environment by altering seafloor surface characteristics such as topography and grain-size composition. By analyzing sediment cores, we investigated the long-term effect of the 2011 tsunami generated by the Tohoku Earthquake off the Pacific coast of Japan on sediment mixing (bioturbation) by an important ecosystem engineer, the heart urchin Echinocardium cordatum. Recent tsunami deposits allow accurate estimation of the depth of current bioturbation by E. cordatum, because there are no preexisting burrows in the sediments. The in situ hardness of the substrate decreased significantly with increasing abundance of E. cordatum, suggesting that echinoid bioturbation softens the seafloor sediment. Sediment-core analysis revealed that this echinoid rarely burrows into the coarser-grained (medium-grained to coarse-grained) sandy layer deposited by the 2011 tsunami; thus, the vertical grain-size distribution resulting from tsunami sedimentation controls the depth of E. cordatum bioturbation. As sandy tsunami layers are preserved in the seafloor substrate, their restriction on bioturbation continues for an extended period. The results demonstrate that understanding the effects on seafloor processes of extreme natural events that occur on geological timescales, including tsunami events, is important in revealing continuing interactions between seafloor sediments and marine benthic invertebrates.

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2017-12-01

This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hornbach, M.J.; Braudy, N.; Briggs, R.W.; Cormier, M.-H.; Davis, M.B.; Diebold, J.B.; Dieudonne, N.; Douilly, R.; Frohlich, C.; Gulick, S.P.S.; Johnson, H. E.; Mann, P.; McHugh, C.; Ryan-Mishkin, K.; Prentice, C.S.; Seeber, L.; Sorlien, C.C.; Steckler, M.S.; Symithe, S.J.; Taylor, F.W.; Templeton, J.

2010-01-01

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake?s location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunamig-a risk that is underestimated at present. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

A review of mechanisms and modelling procedures for landslide tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn; Harbitz, Carl B.; Glimsdal, Sylfest

2017-04-01

Landslides, including volcano flank collapses or volcanically induced flows, constitute the second-most important cause of tsunamis after earthquakes. Compared to earthquakes, landslides are more diverse with respect to how they generation tsunamis. Here, we give an overview over the main tsunami generation mechanisms for landslide tsunamis. In the presentation, a mix of results using analytical models, numerical models, laboratory experiments, and case studies are used to illustrate the diversity, but also to point out some common characteristics. Different numerical modelling techniques for the landslide evolution, and the tsunami generation and propagation, as well as the effect of frequency dispersion, are also briefly discussed. Basic tsunami generation mechanisms for different types of landslides, including large submarine translational landslide, to impulsive submarine slumps, and violent subaerial landslides and volcano flank collapses, are reviewed. The importance of the landslide kinematics is given attention, including the interplay between landslide acceleration, landslide velocity to depth ratio (Froude number) and dimensions. Using numerical simulations, we demonstrate how landslide deformation and retrogressive failure development influence tsunamigenesis. Generation mechanisms for subaerial landslides, are reviewed by means of scaling relations from laboratory experiments and numerical modelling. Finally, it is demonstrated how the different degree of complexity in the landslide tsunamigenesis needs to be reflected by increased sophistication in numerical models.

Topographic data acquisition in tsunami-prone coastal area using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marfai, M. A.; Sunarto; Khakim, N.; Cahyadi, A.; Rosaji, F. S. C.; Fatchurohman, H.; Wibowo, Y. A.

2018-04-01

The southern coastal area of Java Island is one of the nine seismic gaps prone to tsunamis. The entire coastline in one of the regencies, Gunungkidul, is exposed to the subduction zone in the Indian Ocean. Also, the growing tourism industries in the regency increase its vulnerability, which places most of its areas at high risk of tsunamis. The same case applies to Kukup, i.e., one of the most well-known beaches in Gunungkidul. Structurally shaped cliffs that surround it experience intensive wave erosion process, but it has very minimum access for evacuation routes. Since tsunami modeling is a very advanced analysis, it requires an accurate topographic data. Therefore, the research aimed to generate the topographic data of Kukup Beach as the baseline in tsunami risk reduction analysis and disaster management. It used aerial photograph data, which was acquired using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The results showed that the aerial photographs captured by drone had accurate elevation and spatial resolution. Therefore, they are applicable for tsunami modeling and disaster management.

L'aléa tsunami en Polynésie française : synthèse des observations et des mesures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindelé, François; Hébert, Hélène; Reymond, Dominique; Sladen, Anthony

2006-12-01

Since 1837, 15 tsunamis in French Polynesia have been reported, 11 generated damage. The two last major Pacific-wide tsunamis, 1946 Aleutian and 1960 Chilean, generated damage in most of the archipelagos. Only one in 1999 was generated by a local source, a coastal cliff failure on Fatu-Hiva Island. Since 1965, no earthquake magnitude was greater than 8.4 and, consequently, no ocean-wide tsunami of large amplitude has crossed the Pacific Ocean. Nevertheless, the four tide gauge installed in French Polynesia recorded 33 distinct tsunamis of amplitude from several centimetres to 1.6 m, generated by earthquakes of magnitude between 7.3 and 8.4, two of them damageable in Marquesas bays. To cite this article: F. Schindelé et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).

Tsunami Modeling to Validate Slip Models of the 2007 M w 8.0 Pisco Earthquake, Central Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioualalen, M.; Perfettini, H.; Condo, S. Yauri; Jimenez, C.; Tavera, H.

2013-03-01

Following the 2007, August 15th, M w 8.0, Pisco earthquake in central Peru, Sladen et al. (J Geophys Res 115: B02405, 2010) have derived several slip models of this event. They inverted teleseismic data together with geodetic (InSAR) measurements to look for the co-seismic slip distribution on the fault plane, considering those data sets separately or jointly. But how close to the real slip distribution are those inverted slip models? To answer this crucial question, the authors generated some tsunami records based on their slip models and compared them to DART buoys, tsunami records, and available runup data. Such an approach requires a robust and accurate tsunami model (non-linear, dispersive, accurate bathymetry and topography, etc.) otherwise the differences between the data and the model may be attributed to the slip models themselves, though they arise from an incomplete tsunami simulation. The accuracy of a numerical tsunami simulation strongly depends, among others, on two important constraints: (i) A fine computational grid (and thus the bathymetry and topography data sets used) which is not always available, unfortunately, and (ii) a realistic tsunami propagation model including dispersion. Here, we extend Sladen's work using newly available data, namely a tide gauge record at Callao (Lima harbor) and the Chilean DART buoy record, while considering a complete set of runup data along with a more realistic tsunami numerical that accounts for dispersion, and also considering a fine-resolution computational grid, which is essential. Through these accurate numerical simulations we infer that the InSAR-based model is in better agreement with the tsunami data, studying the case of the Pisco earthquake indicating that geodetic data seems essential to recover the final co-seismic slip distribution on the rupture plane. Slip models based on teleseismic data are unable to describe the observed tsunami, suggesting that a significant amount of co-seismic slip may have been aseismic. Finally, we compute the runup distribution along the central part of the Peruvian coast to better understand the wave amplification/attenuation processes of the tsunami generated by the Pisco earthquake.

Numerical study of tsunami generated by multiple submarine slope failures in Resurrection Bay, Alaska, during the MW 9.2 1964 earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suleimani, E.; Hansen, R.; Haeussler, Peter J.

2009-01-01

We use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the MW 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m3. Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation. ?? Birkh??user Verlag, Basel 2009.

NOAA Operational Tsunameter Support for Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchard, R.; Stroker, K.

2008-12-01

In March 2008, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) completed the deployment of the last of the 39-station network of deep-sea tsunameters. As part of NOAA's effort to strengthen tsunami warning capabilities, NDBC expanded the network from 6 to 39 stations and upgraded all stations to the second generation Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis technology (DART II). Consisting of a bottom pressure recorder (BPR) and a surface buoy, the tsunameters deliver water-column heights, estimated from pressure measurements at the sea floor, to Tsunami Warning Centers in less than 3 minutes. This network provides coastal communities in the Pacific, Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico with faster and more accurate tsunami warnings. In addition, both the coarse resolution real-time data and the high resolution (15-second) recorded data provide invaluable contributions to research, such as the detection of the 2004 Sumatran tsunami in the Northeast Pacific (Gower and González, 2006) and the experimental tsunami forecast system (Bernard et al., 2007). NDBC normally recovers the BPRs every 24 months and sends the recovered high resolution data to NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) for archive and distribution. NGDC edits and processes this raw binary format to obtain research-quality data. NGDC provides access to retrospective BPR data from 1986 to the present. The DART database includes pressure and temperature data from the ocean floor, stored in a relational database, enabling data integration with the global tsunami and significant earthquake databases. All data are accessible via the Web as tables, reports, interactive maps, OGC Web Map Services (WMS), and Web Feature Services (WFS) to researchers around the world. References: Gower, J. and F. González, 2006. U.S. Warning System Detected the Sumatra Tsunami, Eos Trans. AGU, 87(10). Bernard, E. N., C. Meinig, and A. Hilton, 2007. Deep Ocean Tsunami Detection: Third Generation DART, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract S51C-03.

Observations and Modeling of the August 27, 2012 Earthquake and Tsunami affecting El Salvador and Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, Jose C.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Lynett, Patrick J.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Newman, Andrew V.; Convers, Jaime A.

2014-12-01

On 27 August 2012 (04:37 UTC, 26 August 10:37 p.m. local time) a magnitude M w = 7.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of El Salvador and generated surprisingly large local tsunami. Following the event, local and international tsunami teams surveyed the tsunami effects in El Salvador and northern Nicaragua. The tsunami reached a maximum height of ~6 m with inundation of up to 340 m inland along a 25 km section of coastline in eastern El Salvador. Less severe inundation was reported in northern Nicaragua. In the far-field, the tsunami was recorded by a DART buoy and tide gauges in several locations of the eastern Pacific Ocean but did not cause any damage. The field measurements and recordings are compared to numerical modeling results using initial conditions of tsunami generation based on finite-fault earthquake and tsunami inversions and a uniform slip model.

Tsunami Source Modeling of the 2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake near Torishima, South of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandanbata, O.; Watada, S.; Satake, K.; Fukao, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Ito, A.; Shiobara, H.

2017-12-01

An abnormal earthquake occurred at a submarine volcano named Smith Caldera, near Torishima Island on the Izu-Bonin arc, on May 2, 2015. The earthquake, which hereafter we call "the 2015 Torishima earthquake," has a CLVD-type focal mechanism with a moderate seismic magnitude (M5.7) but generated larger tsunami waves with an observed maximum height of 50 cm at Hachijo Island [JMA, 2015], so that the earthquake can be regarded as a "tsunami earthquake." In the region, similar tsunami earthquakes were observed in 1984, 1996 and 2006, but their physical mechanisms are still not well understood. Tsunami waves generated by the 2015 earthquake were recorded by an array of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges, 100 km northeastern away from the epicenter. The waves initiated with a small downward signal of 0.1 cm and reached peak amplitude (1.5-2.0 cm) of leading upward signals followed by continuous oscillations [Fukao et al., 2016]. For modeling its tsunami source, or sea-surface displacement, we perform tsunami waveform simulations, and compare synthetic and observed waveforms at the OBP gauges. The linear Boussinesq equations are adapted with the tsunami simulation code, JAGURS [Baba et al., 2015]. We first assume a Gaussian-shaped sea-surface uplift of 1.0 m with a source size comparable to Smith Caldera, 6-7 km in diameter. By shifting source location around the caldera, we found the uplift is probably located within the caldera rim, as suggested by Sandanbata et al. [2016]. However, synthetic waves show no initial downward signal that was observed at the OBP gauges. Hence, we add a ring of subsidence surrounding the main uplift, and examine sizes and amplitudes of the main uplift and the subsidence ring. As a result, the model of a main uplift of around 1.0 m with a radius of 4 km surrounded by a ring of small subsidence shows good agreement of synthetic and observed waveforms. The results yield two implications for the deformation process that help us to understanding the physical mechanism of the 2015 Torishima earthquake. First, the estimated large uplift within Smith Caldera implies the earthquake may be related to some volcanic activity of the caldera. Secondly, the modeled ring of subsidence surrounding the caldera suggests that the process may have included notable subsidence, at least on the northeastern side out of the caldera.

NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitmore, P.; Refidaff, C.; Caropolo, M.; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Knight, W.; Sammler, W.; Sandrik, A.

2009-01-01

West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

Modelling of historical tsunami in Eastern Indonesia: 1674 Ambon and 1992 Flores case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pranantyo, Ignatius Ryan; Cummins, Phil; Griffin, Jonathan; Davies, Gareth; Latief, Hamzah

2017-07-01

In order to reliably assess tsunami hazard in eastern Indonesia, we need to understand how historical events were generated. Here we consider two such events: the 1674 Ambon and the 1992 Flores tsunamis. Firstly, Ambon Island suffered a devastating earthquake that generated a tsunami with 100 m run-up height on the north coast of the island in 1674. However, there is no known active fault around the island capable of generating such a gigantic wave. Rumphius' report describes that the initial wave was coming from three villages that collapsed immediately after the earthquake with width as far as a musket shot. Moreover, a very high tsunami was only observed locally. We suspect that a submarine landslide was the main cause of the gigantic tsunami on the north side of Ambon Island. Unfortunately, there is no data available to confirm if landslide have occurred in this region. Secondly, several tsunami source models for the 1992 Flores event have been suggested. However, the fault strike is quite different compare to the existing Flores back-arc thrust and has not been well validated against a tide gauge waveform at Palopo, Sulawesi. We considered a tsunami model based on Griffin, et al., 2015, extended with high resolution bathymetry laround Palopo, in order to validate the latest tsunami source model available. In general, the model produces a good agreement with tsunami waveforms, but arrives 10 minutes late compared to observed data. In addition, the source overestimates the tsunami inundation west of Maumere, and does not account for the presumed landslide tsunami on the east side of Flores Island.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in Greece for seismic sources along the segmented Hellenic Arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikova, Tatyana; Babeyko, Andrey; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

2017-04-01

Greece and adjacent coastal areas are characterized by a high population exposure to tsunami hazard. The Hellenic Arc is the most active geotectonic structure for the generation of earthquakes and tsunamis. We performed probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for selected locations of Greek coastlines which are the forecasting points officially used in the tsunami warning operations by the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center and the NEAMTWS/IOC/UNESCO. In our analysis we considered seismic sources for tsunami generation along the western, central and eastern segments of the Hellenic Arc. We first created a synthetic catalog as long as 10,000 years for all the significant earthquakes with magnitudes in the range from 6.0 to 8.5, the real events being included in this catalog. For each event included in the synthetic catalog a tsunami was generated and propagated using Boussinesq model. The probability of occurrence for each event was determined by Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution. The results of our study are expressed as hazard curves and hazard maps. The hazard curves were obtained for the selected sites and present the annual probability of exceedance as a function of pick coastal tsunami amplitude. Hazard maps represent the distribution of peak coastal tsunami amplitudes corresponding to a fixed annual probability. In such forms our results can be easily compared to the ones obtained in other studies and further employed for the development of tsunami risk management plans. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.

Tsunami Forecast Progress Five Years After Indonesian Disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, Vasily V.; Bernard, Eddie N.; Weinstein, Stuart A.; Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas E.

2010-05-01

Almost five years after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tragedy, tsunami warnings are finally benefiting from decades of research toward effective model-based forecasts. Since the 2004 tsunami, two seminal advances have been (i) deep-ocean tsunami measurements with tsunameters and (ii) their use in accurately forecasting tsunamis after the tsunami has been generated. Using direct measurements of deep-ocean tsunami heights, assimilated into numerical models for specific locations, greatly improves the real-time forecast accuracy over earthquake-derived magnitude estimates of tsunami impact. Since 2003, this method has been used to forecast tsunamis at specific harbors for different events in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Recent tsunamis illustrated how this technology is being adopted in global tsunami warning operations. The U.S. forecasting system was used by both research and operations to evaluate the tsunami hazard. Tests demonstrated the effectiveness of operational tsunami forecasting using real-time deep-ocean data assimilated into forecast models. Several examples also showed potential of distributed forecast tools. With IOC and USAID funding, NOAA researchers at PMEL developed the Community Model Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) tool and distributed it through extensive capacity-building sessions in the Indian Ocean. Over hundred scientists have been trained in tsunami inundation mapping, leading to the first generation of inundation models for many Indian Ocean shorelines. These same inundation models can also be used for real-time tsunami forecasts as was demonstrated during several events. Contact Information Vasily V. Titov, Seattle, Washington, USA, 98115

Evaluation and Numerical Simulation of Tsunami for Coastal Nuclear Power Plants of India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharma, Pavan K.; Singh, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

2006-07-01

Recent tsunami generated on December 26, 2004 due to Sumatra earthquake of magnitude 9.3 resulted in inundation at the various coastal sites of India. The site selection and design of Indian nuclear power plants demand the evaluation of run up and the structural barriers for the coastal plants: Besides it is also desirable to evaluate the early warning system for tsunami-genic earthquakes. The tsunamis originate from submarine faults, underwater volcanic activities, sub-aerial landslides impinging on the sea and submarine landslides. In case of a submarine earthquake-induced tsunami the wave is generated in the fluid domain due to displacement of themore » seabed. There are three phases of tsunami: generation, propagation, and run-up. Reactor Safety Division (RSD) of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Trombay has initiated computational simulation for all the three phases of tsunami source generation, its propagation and finally run up evaluation for the protection of public life, property and various industrial infrastructures located on the coastal regions of India. These studies could be effectively utilized for design and implementation of early warning system for coastal region of the country apart from catering to the needs of Indian nuclear installations. This paper presents some results of tsunami waves based on different analytical/numerical approaches with shallow water wave theory. (authors)« less

Tsunami Hockey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.

2013-12-01

An important issue that vexes tsunami warning centers (TWCs) is when to cancel a tsunami warning once it is in effect. Emergency managers often face a variety of pressures to allow the public to resume their normal activities, but allowing coastal populations to return too quickly can put them at risk. A TWC must, therefore, exercise caution when cancelling a warning. Kim and Whitmore (2013) show that in many cases a TWC can use the decay of tsunami oscillations in a harbor to forecast when its amplitudes will fall to safe levels. This technique should prove reasonably robust for local tsunamis (those that are potentially dangerous within only 100 km of their source region) and for regional tsunamis (whose danger is limited to within 1000km of the source region) as well. For ocean-crossing destructive tsunamis such as the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami, however, this technique may be inadequate. When a tsunami propagates across the ocean basin, it will encounter topographic obstacles such as seamount chains or coastlines, resulting in coherent reflections that can propagate great distances. When these reflections reach previously-impacted coastlines, they can recharge decaying tsunami oscillations and make them hazardous again. Warning center scientists should forecast sea-level records for 24 hours beyond the initial tsunami arrival in order to observe any potential reflections that may pose a hazard. Animations are a convenient way to visualize reflections and gain a broad geographic overview of their impacts. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has developed tools based on tsunami simulations using the RIFT tsunami forecast model. RIFT is a linear, parallelized numerical tsunami propagation model that runs very efficiently on a multi-CPU system (Wang et al, 2012). It can simulate 30-hours of tsunami wave propagation in the Pacific Ocean at 4 arc minute resolution in approximately 6 minutes of real time on a 12-CPU system. Constructing a 30-hour animation using 1 minute simulated time steps takes approximately 50 minutes on the same system. These animations are generated quickly enough to provide decision support for emergency managers whose coastlines may be impacted by the tsunami several hours later. Tsunami reflections can also aid in determining the source region for those tsunamis generated by non-seismic mechanisms without a clear source such as meteotsunamis, tsunamis generated by meteorological phenomena. A derecho that crossed the New Jersey coast and entered the Atlantic Ocean at approximately 1500 UTC June 13, 2013 generated a meteotsunami that struck the northeast coast of the US causing several injuries. A DART sensor off Montauk, NY, recorded tsunami waves approximately 200 minutes apart. We show how the arrival times of the tsunamis recorded by this DART can help to constrain the source region of the meteotsunami. We also examine other reflections produced by the Haida Gwaii 2012, Tohoku 2011, and other tsunamis.

Modeling the propagation, transformation and the impact of tsunami on urban areas using the coupling STOC-ML/IC/CADMAS in nested grids - Application to specific sites of Chile to improve the tsunami induced loads prediction.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mokrani, C.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Arikawa, T.

2016-02-01

A large part of coasts around the world are affected by tsunami impacts, which supposes a challenge when designing coastal protection structures. Numerical models provide predictions of tsunami-induced loads and there time evolution, which can be used to improve sizing rules of coastal structures. However, the numerical assessment of impact loads is an hard stake. Indeed, recent experimental studies have shown that pressure dynamics generated during tsunami impacts are highly sensitive to the incident local shape of the tsunami. Therefore, high numerical resolutions and very accurate models are required to model all stages during which the tsunami shape is modified before the impact. Given the large distances involved in tsunami events, this can be disregarded in favor of computing time. The Port and Airport Research Institute (PARI) has recently developed a three-way coupled model which allows to accurately model the incident tsunami shape while maintaining reasonable computational time. This coupling approach uses three models used in nested grids (cf. Figure 1). The first one (STOC-ML) solves Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations with hydrostatic pressure. It is used to model the tsunami propagation off the coast. The second one (STOC-IC) is a 3D non-hydrostatic model, on which the free-surface position is estimated through the integrated continuity equation. It has shown to accurately describe dispersive and weakly linear effects occurring at the coast vicinity. The third model (CADMAS-SURF) solves fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and use a VOF method. Highly nonlinear, dispersive effects and wave breaking processes can be included at the wave scale and therefore, a very accurate description of the incident tsunami is provided. Each model have been separately validated from analytical and/or experimental data. The present objective is to highlight recent advances in Coastal Ocean modeling for tsunami modeling and loads prediction by applying this coupling approach to different sites of the Chilean coast. We first present validation tests to highlight the numerical abilities of this coupling. Then, two tsunami cases are considered and both near-shore processes and tsunami-induced loads on structures are analyzed.

Assessing tsunami-induced groundwater salinization and its temporal change: a numerical modelling study on the Niijima Island, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiaqi; Tokunaga, Tomochika

2016-04-01

Groundwater is vulnerable to many natural hazards, including tsunami. As reported after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake, the generated massive tsunami inundations resulted in unexpected groundwater salinization in coastal areas. Water supply was strongly disturbed due to the significantly elevated salinity in groundwater. Supplying fresh water is one of the prioritized concerns in the immediate aftermath of disaster, and during long-term post-disaster reconstruction as well. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of tsunami on coastal groundwater system and provide guidelines on managing water resources in post-tsunami period. We selected the study area as the Niijima Island, a tsunami-prone area in Japan, which is under the risk of being attacked by a devastated tsunami with its wave height up to 30 m. A three-dimension (3-D) numerical model of the groundwater system on the Niijima Island was developed by using the simulation code FEFLOW which can handle both density- dependent groundwater flow and saturated-unsaturated flow processes. The model was justified by the measured water table data obtained from the field work in July, 2015. By using this model, we investigated saltwater intrusion and aquifer recovery process under different tsunami scenarios. Modelling results showed that saltwater could fully saturate the vadose zone and come into contact with groundwater table in just 10 mins. The 0.6 km2 of inundation area introduced salt mass equivalent to approximately 9×104 t of NaCl into the vadose zone. After the retreat of tsunami waves, the remained saltwater in vadose zone continuously intruded into the groundwater and dramatically salinized the aquifer up to about 10,000 mg/L. In the worst tsunami scenario, it took more than 10 years for the polluted aquifer to be entirely recovered by natural rainfall. Given that the groundwater is the only freshwater source on the Niijima Island, we can provide suggestions on preparedness of tsunami disasters and guidelines of supplying water resource in post-tsunami period based on these numerical modelling results. This approach has implications for the disaster prevention and the better preparation with respect to tsunami and tsunami-like events such as storm surges on other coastal areas.

Incorporation of Multiple Datasets in Earthquake Source Inversions: Case Study for the 2015 Illapel Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, A.; Cummins, P. R.; Newman, A. V.; Benavente, R. F.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Illapel, Chile earthquake was recorded over a wide range of seismic, geodetic and oceanographic instruments. The USGS assigned magnitude 8.3 earthquake produced a tsunami that was recorded trans-oceanically at both tide gauges and deep-water tsunami pressure sensors. The event also generated surface deformation along the Chilean coast that was recovered through ascending and descending paths of the Sentinel-1A satellite. Additionally, seismic waves were recorded across various global seismic networks. While the determination of the rupture source through seismic and geodetic means is now commonplace and has been studied extensively in this fashion for the Illapel event, the use of tsunami datasets in the inversion process, rather than purely as a forward validation of models, is less common. In this study, we evaluate the use of both near and far field tsunami pressure gauges in the source inversion process, examining their contribution to seismic and geodetic joint inversions- as well as examine the contribution of dispersive and elastic loading parameters on the numerical tsunami propagation. We determine that the inclusion of near field tsunami pressure gauges assists in resolving the degree of slip in the near-trench environment, where purely geodetic inversions lose most resolvability. The inclusion of a far-field dataset has the potential to add further confidence to tsunami inversions, however at a high computational cost. When applied to the Illapel earthquake, this added near-trench resolvability leads to a better estimation of tsunami arrival times at near field gauges and contributes understanding to the wide variation in tsunamigenic slip present along the highly active Peru-Chile trench.

Generation of realistic tsunami waves using a bottom-tilting wave maker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Yong Sung; Hwang, Jin Hwan

2016-11-01

Tsunamis have caused more than 260,000 human losses and 250 billion in damage worldwide in the last ten years. Observations made during 2011 Japan Tohoku Tsunami revealed that the commonly used waves (solitary waves) to model tsunamis are at least an order-of-magnitude shorter than the real tsunamis, which calls for re-evaluation of the current understanding of tsunamis. To prompt the required paradigm shift, a new wave generator, namely the bottom-tilting wave generator, has been developed at the University of Dundee. The wave tank is fitted with an adjustable slope and a bottom flap hinged at the beginning of the slope. By moving the bottom flap up and down, we can generate very long waves. Here we will report characteristics of waves generated by simple bottom motions, either moving it upward or downward from an initial displacement ending it being horizontal. Two parameters, namely the initial displacement of the bottom and the speed of the motion, determine characteristics of the generated waves. Wave amplitudes scale well with the volume flux of the displaced water. On the other hand, due to combined effects of nonlinearity and dispersion, wavelengths show more complicated relationship with the two bottom motion parameters. We will also demonstrate that by combining simple up and down motions, it is possible to generate waves resembling the one measured during 2011 tsunami. YSP acknowledges financial support from the Royal Society of Edinburgh through the Royal Society of Edinburgh and Scottish Government Personal Research Fellowship Co-Funded by the Marie-Curie Actions.

Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment of Tectonic and Landslide Tsunamis in Southeast Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Koehler, R. D., III

2014-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska, and is currently focused on the southeastern region and communities of Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Gustavus and Hoonah. This activity provides local emergency officials with tsunami hazard assessment, planning, and mitigation tools. At-risk communities are distributed along several segments of the Alaska coastline, each having a unique seismic history and potential tsunami hazard. Thus, a critical component of our project is accurate identification and characterization of potential tectonic and landslide tsunami sources. The primary tectonic element of Southeast Alaska is the Fairweather - Queen Charlotte fault system, which has ruptured in 5 large strike-slip earthquakes in the past 100 years. The 1958 "Lituya Bay" earthquake triggered a large landslide into Lituya Bay that generated a 540-m-high wave. The M7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake of October 28, 2012 occurred along the same fault, but was associated with dominantly vertical motion, generating a local tsunami. Communities in Southeast Alaska are also vulnerable to hazards related to locally generated waves, due to proximity of communities to landslide-prone fjords and frequent earthquakes. The primary mechanisms for local tsunami generation are failure of steep rock slopes due to relaxation of internal stresses after deglaciation, and failure of thick unconsolidated sediments accumulated on underwater delta fronts at river mouths. We numerically model potential tsunami waves and inundation extent that may result from future hypothetical far- and near-field earthquakes and landslides. We perform simulations for each source scenario using the Alaska Tsunami Model, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by emergency planners.

Hydrodynamic modeling of tsunamis from the Currituck landslide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Lynett, P.J.; Chaytor, J.D.

2009-01-01

Tsunami generation from the Currituck landslide offshore North Carolina and propagation of waves toward the U.S. coastline are modeled based on recent geotechnical analysis of slide movement. A long and intermediate wave modeling package (COULWAVE) based on the non-linear Boussinesq equations are used to simulate the tsunami. This model includes procedures to incorporate bottom friction, wave breaking, and overland flow during runup. Potential tsunamis generated from the Currituck landslide are analyzed using four approaches: (1) tsunami wave history is calculated from several different scenarios indicated by geotechnical stability and mobility analyses; (2) a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the effects of both landslide failure duration during generation and bottom friction along the continental shelf during propagation; (3) wave history is calculated over a regional area to determine the propagation of energy oblique to the slide axis; and (4) a high-resolution 1D model is developed to accurately model wave breaking and the combined influence of nonlinearity and dispersion during nearshore propagation and runup. The primary source parameter that affects tsunami severity for this case study is landslide volume, with failure duration having a secondary influence. Bottom friction during propagation across the continental shelf has a strong influence on the attenuation of the tsunami during propagation. The high-resolution 1D model also indicates that the tsunami undergoes nonlinear fission prior to wave breaking, generating independent, short-period waves. Wave breaking occurs approximately 40-50??km offshore where a tsunami bore is formed that persists during runup. These analyses illustrate the complex nature of landslide tsunamis, necessitating the use of detailed landslide stability/mobility models and higher-order hydrodynamic models to determine their hazard.

Examination of the largest-possible tsunamis (Level 2) generated along the Nankai and Suruga troughs during the past 4000 years based on studies of tsunami deposits from the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitamura, Akihisa

2016-12-01

Japanese historical documents reveal that Mw 8 class earthquakes have occurred every 100-150 years along the Suruga and Nankai troughs since the 684 Hakuho earthquake. These earthquakes have commonly caused large tsunamis with wave heights of up to 10 m in the Japanese coastal area along the Suruga and Nankai troughs. From the perspective of tsunami disaster management, these tsunamis are designated as Level 1 tsunamis and are the basis for the design of coastal protection facilities. A Mw 9.0 earthquake (the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake) and a mega-tsunami with wave heights of 10-40 m struck the Pacific coast of the northeastern Japanese mainland on 11 March 2011, and far exceeded pre-disaster predictions of wave height. Based on the lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, the Japanese Government predicted the tsunami heights of the largest-possible tsunami (termed a Level 2 tsunami) that could be generated in the Suruga and Nankai troughs. The difference in wave heights between Level 1 and Level 2 tsunamis exceeds 20 m in some areas, including the southern Izu Peninsula. This study reviews the distribution of prehistorical tsunami deposits and tsunami boulders during the past 4000 years, based on previous studies in the coastal area of Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan. The results show that a tsunami deposit dated at 3400-3300 cal BP can be traced between the Shimizu, Shizuoka and Rokken-gawa lowlands, whereas no geologic evidence related to the corresponding tsunami (the Rokken-gawa-Oya tsunami) was found on the southern Izu Peninsula. Thus, the Rokken-gawa-Oya tsunami is not classified as a Level 2 tsunami.

Holocene tsunamigenic sediments and tsunami modelling in the Thermaikos Gulf area (northern Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reicherter, Klaus; Papanikolaou, Ioannis D.; Roger, Jean; Grützner, Christoph; Stamatis, Georgios; Papanikolaou, Dimitrios

2010-05-01

Shallow drill cores in flat and southerly exposed coastal areas around the Thermaikos Gulf (Thessalonica, northern Greece) provided evidence for past high energy sedimentary events, which are interpreted as tsunamites. A tsunamigenic source is located along the western tip of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in the North Aegean Basin, where water depths ranging between 1.200 and 1.650 m are sufficiently deep to generate tsunamis. However, the event layers up to now cannot be assigned to individual seismic or landslide sources, but the potential of a tsunami threat in the Thermaikos Gulf area can now be tested, following both sedimentological and modelling processes. Such potential threat regarding the Thermaikos Gulf has only recently been notified but never tested and studied in depth. As a result, several Holocene coarse clastic layers have been found intercalated in clayey or gypsiferous lagoonal deposits. These layers have erosive bases, show fining-up and thinning-up sequences, and include shell debris, foraminifera and rip-up clasts of lagoonal sediments. A widely observed significant feature of these layers involves mud-coated beach clasts, clasts that rework the high-plasticity clays of lagoons. Such features that indicate highly disturbed sedimentological condition (hyperpyncal flows) are rarely described elsewhere. Multiple intercalations of these layers with all the mentioned indicative features downhole are interpreted paleotsunami deposits from tsunamis generated by earthquakes or earthquake-triggered submarine landslides triggered by seismic shaking in the Thermaikos Gulf. Modelling of the tsunami potential of the basin-bounding fault southwards of the Thermaikos Gulf provides an example for possible tsunami generation at only one segment of NAFZ along an approx. 55 km normal fault at the southern fault-bound margin of the North Aegean Basin. The Herodotus Histories report on inundations and sea withdrawals occurring during the Greek-Persian war, which occurred near Potidea. In the ancient Greek village Mende we found evidence for a tsunamigenic layer, dated with shells to 2500 BP, which may tentatively be interpreted as the sedimentary remains of the "Herodotus tsunami" in 479 BC. Acknowledgements: This work has been supported financially by the DAAD-IKYDA Project (Tracing tsunami deposits in the Thermaikos Gulf, Northern Greece. Implications for seismic and tsunami hazard and archaeology) and the RWTH Aachen University.

A Coupled Earthquake-Tsunami Simulation Framework Applied to the Sumatra 2004 Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vater, Stefan; Bader, Michael; Behrens, Jörn; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Uphoff, Carsten; Wollherr, Stephanie; van Zelst, Iris

2017-04-01

Large earthquakes along subduction zone interfaces have generated destructive tsunamis near Chile in 1960, Sumatra in 2004, and northeast Japan in 2011. In order to better understand these extreme events, we have developed tools for physics-based, coupled earthquake-tsunami simulations. This simulation framework is applied to the 2004 Indian Ocean M 9.1-9.3 earthquake and tsunami, a devastating event that resulted in the loss of more than 230,000 lives. The earthquake rupture simulation is performed using an ADER discontinuous Galerkin discretization on an unstructured tetrahedral mesh with the software SeisSol. Advantages of this approach include accurate representation of complex fault and sea floor geometries and a parallelized and efficient workflow in high-performance computing environments. Accurate and efficient representation of the tsunami evolution and inundation at the coast is achieved with an adaptive mesh discretizing the shallow water equations with a second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme. With the application of the framework to this historic event, we aim to better understand the involved mechanisms between the dynamic earthquake within the earth's crust, the resulting tsunami wave within the ocean, and the final coastal inundation process. Earthquake model results are constrained by GPS surface displacements and tsunami model results are compared with buoy and inundation data. This research is part of the ASCETE Project, "Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events", funded by the Volkswagen Foundation.

Source parameters controlling the generation and propagation of potential local tsunamis along the cascadia margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.; Yoshioka, S.

1996-01-01

The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional (x-t) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional (x-y-t) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous 'tsunami earthquakes' that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude. ?? 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

The Pacific tsunami warning system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pararas-Carayannis, G.

1986-01-01

The impact of tsunamis on human societies can be traced back in written history to 480 BC, when the Minoan civilization in the Eastern Mediterranean was wiped out by great tsunami waves generated by the volcanic explosion of the island of Santorin. In the Pacific Ocean where the majority of these waves have been generated, the historical record, although brief, shows tremendous destruction. In Japan which has one of the most populated coastal regions in the world and a long history of earthquake activity, tsunamis have destroyed entire coastal communities. There is also history of tsunami destruction in Alaska, in Hawaiian Islands, and in South America. 

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2018-04-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2017-11-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Asteroid Generated Tsunami Workshop: Summary of NASA/NOAA Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj

2017-01-01

A two-day workshop on tsunami generated by asteroid impacts in the ocean resulted in a broad consensus that the asteroid impact tsunami threat is not as great as previously thought, that airburst events in particular are unlikely to produce significant damage by tsunami, and that the tsunami contribution to the global ensemble impact hazard is substantially less than the contribution from land impacts. The workshop, led by Ethiraj Venkatapathy and David Morrison of NASA Ames, was organized into three sessions: 1) Near-field wave generation by the impact; 2) Long distance wave propagation; 3) Damage from coastal run-up and inundation, and associated hazard. Workshop approaches were to compare simulations to understand differences in the results and gain confidence in the modeling for both formation and propagation of tsunami from asteroid impacts, and to use this information for preliminary global risk assessment. The workshop focus was on smaller asteroids (diameter less than 250m), which represent the most frequent impacts.

Building strategies for tsunami scenarios databases to be used in a tsunami early warning decision support system: an application to western Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2012-04-01

One of the most challenging goals that the geo-scientific community is facing after the catastrophic tsunami occurred on December 2004 in the Indian Ocean is to develop the so-called "next generation" Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Indeed, the meaning of "next generation" does not refer to the aim of a TEWS, which obviously remains to detect whether a tsunami has been generated or not by a given source and, in the first case, to send proper warnings and/or alerts in a suitable time to all the countries and communities that can be affected by the tsunami. Instead, "next generation" identifies with the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) that, in general terms, relies on 1) an integrated set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors whose objective is to detect and characterise the possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitor instrumentally the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios to be suitably combined based on the information coming from the sensor environment and to be used to forecast the degree of exposition of different coastal places both in the near- and in the far-field, 3) a proper overall (software) system architecture. The EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project aims at developing such a DSS and has selected two test areas in the Euro-Mediterranean region, namely the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean (Turkish coasts). In this study, we discuss the strategies that are being adopted in TRIDEC to build the databases of pre-computed tsunami scenarios and we show some applications to the western Iberian margin. In particular, two different databases are being populated, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB). The VSDB contains detailed simulations of few selected earthquake-generated tsunamis. The cases provided by the members of the VSDB are computed "real events"; in other words, they represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC platform must be able to recognise and match during the early crisis management phase. The MSDB contains a very large number (order of thousands) of tsunami simulations performed starting from many different simple earthquake sources of different magnitudes and located in the "vicinity" of the virtual scenario earthquake. Examples from both databases will be presented.

Validation of NEOWAVE with Measurements from the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, K.; Yamazaki, Y.

2012-12-01

An accurate and reliable numerical model is essential in mapping tsunami hazards for mitigation and preparedness. The model NEOWAVE (Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs) is being used for tsunami inundation mapping in Hawaii, American Samoa, the Gulf coast states, and Puerto Rico. In addition to the benchmarks established by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, we have been conducting a thorough investigation of NEOWAVE's capability in reproducing the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and its impact across the Pacific. The shock-capturing non-hydrostatic model is well suited to handle tsunami conditions in a variety of coastal environments in the near and far field. It describes dispersive waves through non-hydrostatic pressure and vertical velocity, which also account for tsunami generation from time histories of seafloor deformation. The semi-implicit, staggered finite difference model captures flow discontinuities associated with bores or hydraulic jumps through a momentum conservation scheme. The model supports up to five levels of two-way nested grids in spherical coordinates to describe tsunami processes of varying time and spatial scales from the open ocean to the coast. We first define the source mechanism through forward modeling of the near-field tsunami recorded by coastal and deep-ocean buoys. A finite-fault solution based on teleseismic P-wave inversion serves as the starting point of the iterative process, in which the source parameters are systematically adjusted to achieve convergence of the computed tsunami with the near-field records. The capability of NEOWAVE in modeling propagation of the tsunami is evaluated with DART data across the Pacific as well as water-level and current measurements in Hawaii. These far-field water-level records, which are not considered in the forward modeling, also provide an independently assessment of the source model. The computed runup and inundation are compared with measurements along Northeastern Japan coasts and the Hawaiian Island chain. These coastlines include shallow embayments with open plains, narrow estuaries with steep cliffs, and volcanic insular slopes with fringing reefs for full validation of the model in a single event. The Tohoku tsunami caused persistent oscillations and hazardous currents in coastal waters around Hawaii. Analysis of the computed surface elevation reveals complex resonance modes along the Hawaiian Island chain. Standing waves with period 16 min or shorter are able to form a series of nodes and antinodes over the reefs that results in strong currents and large drawdown responsible for the damage in harbors and marinas. The results provide insights into effects of fringing reefs, which are present along 70% of Hawaii's coastlines, on tsunami transformation and runup processes. The case study improves our understanding on tsunamis in tropical island environments and validates the modeling capability to predict their impacts for hazard mitigation and emergency management.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume III"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2018-04-01

Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume III”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2018-01-01

Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Seismic Shaking, Tsunami Wave Erosion And Generation of Seismo-Turbidites in the Ionian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonia, Alina; Nelson, Hans; Romano, Stefania; Vaiani, Stefano Claudio; Colizza, Ester; Gasparotto, Giorgio; Gasperini, Luca

2016-04-01

We are investigating the effects of earthquakes and tsunamis on the sedimentary record in the Ionian Sea through the analysis of turbidite deposits. A comparison between radiometric dating and historical earthquake catalogs suggests that recent turbidite generation is triggered by great earthquakes in the Calabrian and hellenic Arcs such as the AD 1908 Messina, AD 1693 Catania, AD 1169 Eastern Sicily and AD 365 Crete earthquakes. Textural, micropaleontological, geochemical and mineralogical signatures of the youngest three seismo-turbidites reveal cyclic patterns of sedimentary units. The basal stacked turbidites result from multiple slope failure sources as shown by different sedimentary structures as well as mineralogic, geochemical and micropaleontological compositions. The homogenite units, are graded muds deposited from the waning flows of the multiple turbidity currents that are trapped in the Ionian Sea confined basin. The uppermost unit is divided into two parts. The lower marine sourced laminated part without textural gradation, we interpret to result from seiching of the confined water mass that appears to be generated by earthquake ruptures combined with tsunami waves. The uppermost part we interpret as the tsunamite cap that is deposited by the slow settling suspension cloud created by tsunami wave backwash erosion of the shoreline and continental shelf. This tsunami process interpretation is based on the final textural gradation of the upper unit and a more continental source of the tsunami cap which includes C/N >10, the lack of abyssal foraminifera species wirth the local occurrence of inner shelf foraminifera. Seismic reflection images show that some deeper turbidite beds are very thick and marked by acoustic transparent homogenite mud layers at their top. Based on a high resolution study of the most recent of such megabeds (Homogenite/Augias turbidite, i.e. HAT), we show that it was triggered by the AD 365 Crete earthquake. Radiometric dating support a scenario of synchronous deposition of the HAT in an area as wide as 150.000 km2, which suggests basin-scale sediment remobilization processes. The HAT in our cores is made up of a base to top sequence of stacked and graded sand/silt units with different compositions related to the Malta, Calabria and Sicilian margin locations. This composition suggests multiple synchronous slope failures typical of seismo-turbidites; however, the Crete earthquake source is too distant from the Italian margins to cause sediment failures by earthquake shaking. Consequently, because our present evidence suggests shallow-water sediment sources, we reinforce previous interpretations that the HAT is a deep-sea "tsunamite" deposit. Utilizing the expanded stratigraphy of the HAT, together with the heterogeneity of the sediment sources of the Ionian margins, we are trying to unravel the relative contribution of seismic shaking (sediment failures, MTDs, turbidity currents) and of tsunami wave processes (overwash surges, backwash flows, turbidity currents) for seismo-turbidite generation.

Advanced Tsunami Numerical Simulations and Energy Considerations by use of 3D-2D Coupled Models: The October 11, 1918, Mona Passage Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Venegas, Alberto M.; Horrillo, Juan; Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Huérfano, Victor; Mercado, Aurelio

2015-06-01

The most recent tsunami observed along the coast of the island of Puerto Rico occurred on October 11, 1918, after a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in the Mona Passage. The earthquake was responsible for initiating a tsunami that mostly affected the northwestern coast of the island. Runup values from a post-tsunami survey indicated the waves reached up to 6 m. A controversy regarding the source of the tsunami has resulted in several numerical simulations involving either fault rupture or a submarine landslide as the most probable cause of the tsunami. Here we follow up on previous simulations of the tsunami from a submarine landslide source off the western coast of Puerto Rico as initiated by the earthquake. Improvements on our previous study include: (1) higher-resolution bathymetry; (2) a 3D-2D coupled numerical model specifically developed for the tsunami; (3) use of the non-hydrostatic numerical model NEOWAVE (non-hydrostatic evolution of ocean WAVE) featuring two-way nesting capabilities; and (4) comprehensive energy analysis to determine the time of full tsunami wave development. The three-dimensional Navier-Stokes model tsunami solution using the Navier-Stokes algorithm with multiple interfaces for two fluids (water and landslide) was used to determine the initial wave characteristic generated by the submarine landslide. Use of NEOWAVE enabled us to solve for coastal inundation, wave propagation, and detailed runup. Our results were in agreement with previous work in which a submarine landslide is favored as the most probable source of the tsunami, and improvement in the resolution of the bathymetry yielded inundation of the coastal areas that compare well with values from a post-tsunami survey. Our unique energy analysis indicates that most of the wave energy is isolated in the wave generation region, particularly at depths near the landslide, and once the initial wave propagates from the generation region its energy begins to stabilize.

Warning and prevention based on estimates with large uncertainties: the case of low-frequency and large-impact events like tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo

2013-04-01

Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical sufficient number of large tsunamis, which entails that tsunami hazard has to be estimated by means of speculated worst-case scenarios, and their consequences are evaluated accordingly and usually result associated with large uncertainty bands. In case of large uncertainties, the main issues for geoscientists are how to communicate the information (prediction and uncertainties) to stakeholders and citizens and how to build and implement together responsive procedures that should be adequate. Usually there is a tradeoff between the cost of the countermeasure (warning and prevention) and its efficacy (i.e. its capability of minimizing the damage). The level of the acceptable tradeoff is an issue pertaining to decision makers and to local threatened communities. This paper, that represents a contribution from the European project TRIDEC on management of emergency crises, discusses the role of geoscientists in providing predictions and the related uncertainties. It is stressed that through academic education geoscientists are formed more to better their understanding of processes and the quantification of uncertainties, but are often unprepared to communicate their results in a way appropriate for society. Filling this gap is crucial for improving the way geoscience and society handle natural hazards and devise proper defense means.

Explosive eruption, flank collapse and megatsunami at Tenerife ca. 170 ka.

PubMed

Paris, Raphaël; Bravo, Juan J Coello; González, María E Martín; Kelfoun, Karim; Nauret, François

2017-05-15

Giant mass failures of oceanic shield volcanoes that generate tsunamis potentially represent a high-magnitude but low-frequency hazard, and it is actually difficult to infer the mechanisms and dynamics controlling them. Here we document tsunami deposits at high elevation (up to 132 m) on the north-western slopes of Tenerife, Canary Islands, as a new evidence of megatsunami generated by volcano flank failure. Analyses of the tsunami deposits demonstrate that two main tsunamis impacted the coasts of Tenerife 170 kyr ago. The first tsunami was generated during the submarine stage of a retrogressive failure of the northern flank of the island, whereas the second one followed the debris avalanche of the subaerial edifice and incorporated pumices from an on-going ignimbrite-forming eruption. Coupling between a massive retrogressive flank failure and a large explosive eruption represents a new type of volcano-tectonic event on oceanic shield volcanoes and a new hazard scenario.

Tsunami hazards to U.S. coasts from giant earthquakes in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Holly F.; von Huene, Roland E.; Scholl, Dave; Kirby, Stephen

2012-01-01

In the aftermath of Japan's devastating 11 March 2011Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, scientists are considering whether and how a similar tsunami could be generated along the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ). A tsunami triggered by an earthquake along the AASZ would cross the Pacific Ocean and cause extensive damage along highly populated U.S. coasts, with ports being particularly vulnerable. For example, a tsunami in 1946 generated by a Mw 8.6 earthquake near Unimak Pass, Alaska (Figure 1a), caused significant damage along the U.S. West Coast, took 150 lives in Hawaii, and inundated shorelines of South Pacific islands and Antarctica [Fryer et al., 2004; Lopez and Okal, 2006]. The 1946 tsunami occurred before modern broadband seismometers were in place, and the mechanisms that created it remain poorly understood.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pudasaini, Shiva P.; Miller, Stephen A.

The general two-phase debris flow model proposed by Pudasaini is employed to study subaerial and submarine debris flows, and the tsunami generated by the debris impact at lakes and oceans. The model, which includes three fundamentally new and dominant physical aspects such as enhanced viscous stress, virtual mass, and generalized drag (in addition to buoyancy), constitutes the most generalized two-phase flow model to date. The advantage of this two-phase debris flow model over classical single-phase, or quasi-two-phase models, is that the initial mass can be divided into several parts by appropriately considering the solid volume fraction. These parts include amore » dry (landslide or rock slide), a fluid (water or muddy water; e.g., dams, rivers), and a general debris mixture material as needed in real flow simulations. This innovative formulation provides an opportunity, within a single framework, to simultaneously simulate the sliding debris (or landslide), the water lake or ocean, the debris impact at the lake or ocean, the tsunami generation and propagation, the mixing and separation between the solid and fluid phases, and the sediment transport and deposition process in the bathymetric surface. Applications of this model include (a) sediment transport on hill slopes, river streams, hydraulic channels (e.g., hydropower dams and plants); lakes, fjords, coastal lines, and aquatic ecology; and (b) submarine debris impact and the rupture of fiber optic, submarine cables and pipelines along the ocean floor, and damage to offshore drilling platforms. Numerical simulations reveal that the dynamics of debris impact induced tsunamis in mountain lakes or oceans are fundamentally different than the tsunami generated by pure rock avalanches and landslides. The analysis includes the generation, amplification and propagation of super tsunami waves and run-ups along coastlines, debris slide and deposition at the bottom floor, and debris shock waves. It is observed that the submarine debris speed can be faster than the tsunami speed. This information can be useful for early warning strategies in the coastal regions. These findings substantially increase our understanding of complex multi-phase systems and multi-physics and flows, and allows for the proper modeling of landslide and debris induced tsunami, the dynamics of turbidity currents and sediment transport, and the associated applications to hazard mitigation, geomorphology and sedimentology.« less

Benchmarking Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide generated tsunami. HTHMP validation process.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias, J.; Escalante, C.; Castro, M. J.

2017-12-01

Landslide tsunami hazard may be dominant along significant parts of the coastline around the world, in particular in the USA, as compared to hazards from other tsunamigenic sources. This fact motivated NTHMP about the need of benchmarking models for landslide generated tsunamis, following the same methodology already used for standard tsunami models when the source is seismic. To perform the above-mentioned validation process, a set of candidate benchmarks were proposed. These benchmarks are based on a subset of available laboratory data sets for solid slide experiments and deformable slide experiments, and include both submarine and subaerial slides. A benchmark based on a historic field event (Valdez, AK, 1964) close the list of proposed benchmarks. A total of 7 benchmarks. The Multilayer-HySEA model including non-hydrostatic effects has been used to perform all the benchmarking problems dealing with laboratory experiments proposed in the workshop that was organized at Texas A&M University - Galveston, on January 9-11, 2017 by NTHMP. The aim of this presentation is to show some of the latest numerical results obtained with the Multilayer-HySEA (non-hydrostatic) model in the framework of this validation effort.Acknowledgements. This research has been partially supported by the Spanish Government Research project SIMURISK (MTM2015-70490-C02-01-R) and University of Malaga, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech. The GPU computations were performed at the Unit of Numerical Methods (University of Malaga).

GPS-TEC of the Ionospheric Disturbances as a Tool for Early Tsunami Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunitsyn, Viacheslav E.; Nesterov, Ivan A.; Shalimov, Sergey L.; Krysanov, Boris Yu.; Padokhin, Artem M.; Rekenthaler, Douglas

2013-04-01

Recently, the GPS measurements were used for retrieving the information on the various types of ionospheric responses to seismic events (earthquakes, seismic Rayleigh waves, and tsunami) which generate atmospheric waves propagating up to the ionospheric altitudes where the collisions between the neutrals and charge particles give rise to the motion of the ionospheric plasma. These experimental results can well be used in architecture of the future tsunami warning system. The point is an earlier (in comparison with seismological methods) detection of the ionospheric signal that can indicate the moment of tsunami generation. As an example we consider the two-dimensional distributions of the vertical total electron content (TEC) variations in the ionosphere both close to and far from the epicenter of the Japan undersea earthquake of March 11, 2011 using radio tomographic (RT) reconstruction of high-temporal-resolution (2-minute) data from the Japan and the US GPS networks. Near-zone TEC variations shows a diverging ionospheric perturbation with multi-component spectral composition emerging after the main shock. The initial phase of the disturbance can be used as an indicator of the tsunami generation and subsequently for the tsunami early warning. Far-zone TEC variations reveals distinct wave train associated with gravity waves generated by tsunami. According to observations tsunami arrives at Hawaii and further at the coast of Southern California with delay relative to the gravity waves. Therefore the gravity wave pattern can be used in the early tsunami warning. We support this scenario by the results of modeling with the parameters of the ocean surface perturbation corresponding to the considered earthquake. In addition it was observed in the modeling that at long distance from the source the gravity wave can pass ahead of the tsunami. The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants 11-05-01157 and 12-05-33065).

Characteristics of Recent Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, A. D.; Eble, M. C.; Mungov, G.

2017-12-01

How long do tsunamis impact a coast? How often is the largest tsunami wave the first to arrive? How do measurements in the far field differ from those made close to the source? Extending the study of Eblé et al. (2015) who showed the prevalence of a leading negative phase, we assimilate and summarize characteristics of known tsunami events recorded on bottom pressure and coastal water level stations throughout the world oceans to answer these and other questions. An extensive repository of data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) archive for tsunami-ready U.S. tide gauge stations, housing more than 200 sites going back 10 years are utilized as are some of the more 3000 marigrams (analog or paper tide gauge records) for tsunami events. The focus of our study is on five tsunamis generated by earthquakes: 2010 Chile (Maule), 2011 East Japan (Tohoku), 2012 Haida Gwaii, 2014 Chile (Iquique), and 2015 Central Chile and one meteorologically generated tsunami on June 2013 along the U.S. East Coast and Caribbean. Reference: Eblé, M., Mungov, G. & Rabinovich, A. On the Leading Negative Phase of Major 2010-2014 Tsunamis. Pure Appl. Geophys. (2015) 172: 3493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1127-5

Rupture process of the 2010 Mw 7.8 Mentawai tsunami earthquake from joint inversion of near-field hr-GPS and teleseismic body wave recordings constrained by tsunami observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Han; Lay, Thorne; Rivera, Luis; Bai, Yefei; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Hill, Emma M.; Sieh, Kerry; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2014-07-01

The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (Mw 7.8) ruptured the shallow portion of the Sunda megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, offshore of Sumatra, Indonesia, generating a strong tsunami that took 509 lives. The rupture zone was updip of those of the 12 September 2007 Mw 8.5 and 7.9 underthrusting earthquakes. High-rate (1 s sampling) GPS instruments of the Sumatra GPS Array network deployed on the Mentawai Islands and Sumatra mainland recorded time-varying and static ground displacements at epicentral distances from 49 to 322 km. Azimuthally distributed tsunami recordings from two deepwater sensors and two tide gauges that have local high-resolution bathymetric information provide additional constraints on the source process. Finite-fault rupture models, obtained by joint inversion of the high-rate (hr)-GPS time series and numerous teleseismic broadband P and S wave seismograms together with iterative forward modeling of the tsunami recordings, indicate rupture propagation ~50 km up dip and ~100 km northwest along strike from the hypocenter, with a rupture velocity of ~1.8 km/s. Subregions with large slip extend from 7 to 10 km depth ~80 km northwest from the hypocenter with a maximum slip of 8 m and from ~5 km depth to beneath thin horizontal sedimentary layers beyond the prism deformation front for ~100 km along strike, with a localized region having >15 m of slip. The seismic moment is 7.2 × 1020 N m. The rupture model indicates that local heterogeneities in the shallow megathrust can accumulate strain that allows some regions near the toe of accretionary prisms to fail in tsunami earthquakes.

Implementation of the NEAMTWS in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matias, L. M.; Annunziato, A.; Carrilho, F.; Baptista, M.

2008-12-01

In this paper we present the ongoing implementation of a national tsunami warning system in Portugal. After the Sumatra event in December 2004, the UNESCO, through its International Oceanographic Commission, recognized the need for an end to end global tsunami warning system and International Coordination Groups have been established for different areas around the globe: Indian, Caribbean, Atlantic and Mediterranean ocean basins. This system is the natural response to the historical and recent instrumental events generated along the western segment of the Eurasia and Nubian plates, which eastern end corresponds to the Gulf of Cadiz. The TWS includes three main components: the seismic detection, the tsunami detection and the issue of warnings/alerts. In Portugal the automatic earthquake processing is installed at IM (Instituto de Meteorologia) which is the only national institution operating on a 24x7 basis. This makes IM the natural candidate to host the Portuguese tsunami warning system. The TWS under implementation has several key points: definition of the tsunami scenarios, tsunami detection, and tsunami protocol messages. The system will also be able to predict tsunami potential impact along the coast, wave-heights and arrival times at pre-defined locations along the coast. In this study we present the recent results on definition of tsunami scenarios, establishment of the scenario database and the tsunami analysis tool. This work is a joint effort between Instituto de Meteorologia (Portugal), the Joint Research Center, JRC- ISPRA, Italy and the coordination of the Portuguese Group for the implementation of NEAMTWS in the area. This work has been financed by different European projects as NEAREST and TRANSFER, and also by the JRC, the IM and CGUL/IDL institutions.

Simulations of Tsunami Triggered by the 1883 Krakatau Volcanic Eruption: Implications for Tsunami Hazard in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Y.; Lin, J.

2013-12-01

The 1883 Krakatau eruption in Indonesia is one of the largest recorded volcanic eruptions in recent history. The associated tsunami claimed about 36,000 lives and recorded run-up heights up to 30 m along the coastal regions in the Sunda Straits between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Our study aims to better understand the generation and propagation mechanisms of this volcano-induced tsunami through modeling quantitatively the tsunami triggering processes at the source region. Comparison of non-linear simulations using the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) with observations reveals that a donut-shape 'hole and ring' initial condition for the tsunami source is able to explain the key characteristics of the observed tsunami: A 'hole' of about 6 km in diameter and 270 m in depth corresponds to the collapse of the Krakatau volcano on August 27, 1883, while a 'ring' of uplift corresponds to the deposition of the erupted volcanic materials. We found that the shallowness and narrowness of the entrance pathway of the Sunda Straits limited the northward transfer of the tsunami energy from the source region into the South China Sea. Instead, the topographic and bathymetric characteristics favored the southward transfer of the energy into the Indian Ocean. This might explain why Sri Lanka and India suffered casualties from this event, while areas inside the South China Sea, such as Singapore, did not record significant tsunami signals. Modeling results further suggest that the shallow topography of the surrounding islands around the Krakatau source region might have contributed to a reduction in maximum run-up heights in the coastal regions of the Sunda Straits.

Sedimentary deposits study of the 2006 Java tsunami, in Pangandaran, West Java (preliminary result)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maemunah, Imun, E-mail: imun-m2001@yahoo.com; Institute Technology of Bandung; Suparka, Emmy, E-mail: emmy@gc.itb.ac.id

The 2006 Java Earthquake (Mw 7.2) has generated a tsunami that reached Pangandaran coastal plain with 9.7 m above sea level height of wave. In 2014 we examined the tsunami deposit exposed in shallow trenches along a∼300 m at 5 transect from shoreline to inland on Karapyak and Madasari, Pangandaran. We documented stratigraphically and sedimentologically, the characteristics of Java Tsunami deposit on Karapyak and Madasari and compared both sediments. In local farmland a moderately-sorted, brown soil is buried by a poorly-sorted, grey, medium-grained sand-sheet. The tsunami deposit was distinguished from the underlying soil by a pronounced increase in grain size that becomesmore » finner upwards and landwards. Decreasing concentration of coarse size particles with distance toward inland are in agreement with grain size analysis. The thickest tsunami deposit is about 25 cm found at 84 m from shoreline in Madasari and about 15 cm found at 80 m from shoreline in Karapyak. The thickness of tsunami deposits in some transect become thinner landward but in some other transect lack a consistent suggested strongly affected by local topography. Tsunami deposits at Karapyak and Madasari show many similarities. Both deposits consist of coarse sand that sharply overlies a finer sandy soil. The presence mud drapes and other sedimentary structure like graded bedding, massive beds, mud clasts in many locations shows a dynamics process of tsunami waves. The imbrication coarse and shell fragments of the 2006 Java, tsunami deposits also provide information about the curent direction, allowing us to distinguish run up deposits from backwash deposits.« less

Parallel Processing of Numerical Tsunami Simulations on a High Performance Cluster based on the GDAL Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, Matthias; Jankowski, Cedric; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

2014-05-01

Thousands of numerical tsunami simulations allow the computation of inundation and run-up along the coast for vulnerable areas over the time. A so-called Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) [1] contains this large number of simulations in text file format. In order to visualize these wave propagations the scenarios have to be reprocessed automatically. In the TRIDEC project funded by the seventh Framework Programme of the European Union a Virtual Scenario Database (VSDB) and a Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) were established amongst others by the working group of the University of Bologna (UniBo) [1]. One part of TRIDEC was the developing of a new generation of a Decision Support System (DSS) for tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) [2]. A working group of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences was responsible for developing the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) as central software application which support operator activities, incident management and message disseminations. For the integration and visualization in the CCUI, the numerical tsunami simulations from MSDB must be converted into the shapefiles format. The usage of shapefiles enables a much easier integration into standard Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Since also the CCUI is based on two widely used open source products (GeoTools library and uDig), whereby the integration of shapefiles is provided by these libraries a priori. In this case, for an example area around the Western Iberian margin several thousand tsunami variations were processed. Due to the mass of data only a program-controlled process was conceivable. In order to optimize the computing efforts and operating time the use of an existing GFZ High Performance Computing Cluster (HPC) had been chosen. Thus, a geospatial software was sought after that is capable for parallel processing. The FOSS tool Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL/OGR) was used to match the coordinates with the wave heights and generates the different shapefiles for certain time steps. The shapefiles contain afterwards lines for visualizing the isochrones of the wave propagation and moreover, data about the maximum wave height and the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) at the coast. Our contribution shows the entire workflow and the visualizing results of the-processing for the example region Western Iberian ocean margin. [1] Armigliato A., Pagnoni G., Zaniboni F, Tinti S. (2013), Database of tsunami scenario simulations for Western Iberia: a tool for the TRIDEC Project Decision Support System for tsunami early warning, Vol. 15, EGU2013-5567, EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna (Austria). [2] Löwe, P., Wächter, J., Hammitzsch, M., Lendholt, M., Häner, R. (2013): The Evolution of Service-oriented Disaster Early Warning Systems in the TRIDEC Project, 23rd International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference - ISOPE-2013, Anchorage (USA).

Variety of Sedimentary Process and Distribution of Tsunami Deposits in Laboratory Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, N.; Sekiguchi, T.

2017-12-01

As an indicator of the history and magnitude of paleotsunami events, tsunami deposits have received considerable attention. To improve the identification and interpretation of paleotsunami deposits, an understanding of sedimentary process and distribution of tsunami deposits is crucial. Recent detailed surveys of onshore tsunami deposits including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami have revealed that terrestrial topography causes a variety of their features and distributions. Therefore, a better understanding of possible sedimentary process and distribution on such influential topographies is required. Flume experiments, in which sedimentary conditions can be easily controlled, can provide insights into the effects of terrestrial topography as well as tsunami magnitude on the feature of tsunami deposits. In this presentation, we report laboratory experiments that focused on terrestrial topography including a water body (e.g. coastal lake) on a coastal lowland and a cliff. In both cases, the results suggested relationship between the distribution of tsunami deposits and the hydraulic condition of the tsunami flow associated with the terrestrial topography. These experiments suggest that influential topography would enhance the variability in thickness of tsunami deposits, and thus, in reconstructions of paleotsunami events using sedimentary records, we should take into account such anomalous distribution of tsunami deposits. Further examination of the temporal sequence of sedimentary process in laboratory tsunamis may improve interpretation and estimation of paleotsunami events.

Magnitude scale for the Central American tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatori, Tokutaro

1995-09-01

Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to be m=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude ( M s =6.9 7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitude m>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis.

Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

PubMed

Paris, Raphaël

2015-10-28

Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

Hydraulic experimental investigation on spatial distribution and formation process of tsunami deposit on a slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harada, K.; Takahashi, T.; Yamamoto, A.; Sakuraba, M.; Nojima, K.

2017-12-01

An important aim of the study of tsunami deposits is to estimate the characteristics of past tsunamis from the tsunami deposits found locally. Based on the tsunami characteristics estimated from tsunami deposit, it is possible to examine tsunami risk assessment in coastal areas. It is considered that tsunami deposits are formed based on the dynamic correlation between tsunami's hydraulic values, sediment particle size, topography, etc. However, it is currently not enough to evaluate the characteristics of tsunamis from tsunami deposits. This is considered to be one of the reasons that the understanding of the formation process of tsunami deposits is not sufficiently understood. In this study, we analyze the measurement results of hydraulic experiment (Yamamoto et al., 2016) and focus on the formation process and distribution of tsunami deposits. Hydraulic experiment was conducted with two-dimensional water channel with a slope. Tsunami was inputted as a bore wave flow. The moving floor section was installed as a seabed slope connecting to shoreline and grain size distribution was set some cases. The water level was measured using ultrasonic displacement gauges, and the flow velocity was measured using propeller current meters and an electromagnetic current meter. The water level and flow velocity was measured at some points. The distribution of tsunami deposit was measured from shoreline to run-up limit on the slope. Yamamoto et al. (2016) reported the measurement results on the distribution of tsunami deposit with wave height and sand grain size. Therefore, in this study, hydraulic analysis of tsunami sediment formation process was examined based on the measurement data. Time series fluctuation of hydraulic parameters such as Froude number, Shields number, Rouse number etc. was calculated to understand on the formation process of tsunami deposit. In the front part of the tsunami, the flow velocity take strong flow from shoreline to around the middle of slope. From the measurement result in this time, it is considered that the dominant process of deposit formation is suspended state. At the run-up limit where the flow velocity decreases, the sediment moves in bedload state. As a result, the amount of sediment transport near the run-up limit changes under the influence of particle size.

Generation of the September 29, 2009 Samoa Tsunami: Examination of a Possible Non-Double Couple Component (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Kirby, S. H.; Ross, S.; Dartnell, P.

2009-12-01

A non-double couple component associated with the Mw=8.0 September 29, 2009 Samoa earthquake is investigated to explain direct tsunami arrivals at deep-ocean pressure sensors (i.e., DART stations). In particular, we seek a tsunami generation model that correctly predicts the polarity of first motions: negative at the Apia station (#51425) NW of the epicenter and positive at the Tonga (#51426) and Aukland (#54401) stations south of the epicenter. Slip on a single, finite fault corresponding to either nodal plane of the best-fitting double couple fails to predict the positive first-motion polarity observed at the southerly (Tonga and Aukland) DART stations. The Samoa earthquake has a significant non-double component as measured by the compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) ratio that ranges from |ɛ|=0.15 (USGS CMT) to |ɛ| =0.37 (Global CMT). To test what effect the non-double component has on tsunami generation, the static elastic displacement field at the sea floor is computed from the full moment tensor. This displacement field represents the initial conditions for tsunami propagation computed using a finite-difference approximation to the linear shallow-water wave equations. The tsunami waveforms calculated from the full moment tensor are consistent with the observed polarities at all of the DART stations. The static displacement field is then decomposed into double-couple and non-double couple components to determine the relative contribution of each to the tsunami wavefield. Although a point-source approximation to the tsunami source is typically inadequate at near-field and regional distances, finite-fault inversions of the 2009 Samoa earthquake indicate that peak slip is spatially concentrated near the hypocenter, suggesting that the point-source representation may be acceptable in this case. Generation of the 2009 Samoa tsunami may involve earthquake rupture on multiple faults and/or along curved faults, both of which are observed from multibeam bathymetry in the epicentral region. The exact rupture path of the earthquake is presently unclear. It is evident from seismological and tsunami observations of the 2009 Samoa event, however, that uniform slip on a single, planar fault cannot explain all aspects of the observed tsunami wavefield.

Village Level Tsunami Threat Maps for Tamil Nadu, SE Coast of India: Numerical Modeling Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MP, J.; Kulangara Madham Subrahmanian, D.; V, R. M.

2014-12-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) devastated several countries of North Indian Ocean. India is one of the worst affected countries after Indonesia and Sri Lanka. In India, Tamil Nadu suffered maximum with fatalities exceeding 8,000 people. Historical records show that tsunami has invaded the shores of Tamil Nadu in the past and has made people realize that the tsunami threat looms over Tamil Nadu and it is necessary to evolve strategies for tsunami threat management. The IOT has brought to light that tsunami inundation and runup varied within short distances and for the disaster management for tsunami, large scale maps showing areas that are likely to be affected by future tsunami are identified. Therefore threat assessment for six villages including Mamallapuram (also called Mahabalipuram) which is famous for its rock-cut temples, from the northern part of Tamil Nadu state of India has been carried out and threat maps categorizing the coast into areas of different degree of threat are prepared. The threat was assessed by numerical modeling using TUNAMI N2 code considering different tsunamigenic sources along the Andaman - Sumatra trench. While GEBCO and C-Map data was used for bathymetry and for land elevation data was generated by RTK - GPS survey for a distance of 1 km from shore and SRTM for the inland areas. The model results show that in addition to the Sumatra source which generated the IOT in 2004, earthquakes originating in Car Nicobar and North Andaman can inflict more damage. The North Andaman source can generate a massive tsunami and an earthquake of magnitude more than Mw 9 can not only affect Tamil Nadu but also entire south east coast of India. The runup water level is used to demarcate the tsunami threat zones in the villages using GIS.

A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

2014-12-01

Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

Asteroid-Generated Tsunami and Impact Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M.; Aftosmis, M.; Berger, M. J.; Ezzedine, S. M.; Gisler, G.; Jennings, B.; LeVeque, R. J.; Mathias, D.; McCoy, C.; Robertson, D.; Titov, V. V.; Wheeler, L.

2016-12-01

The justification for planetary defense comes from a cost/benefit analysis, which includes risk assessment. The contribution from ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall risk. Our group is currently working toward improved understanding of impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunami. The importance of asteroid-generated tsunami research has increased because a new Science Definition Team, at the behest of NASA's Planetary Defense Coordinating Office, is now updating the results of a 2003 study on which our current planetary defense policy is based Our group was formed to address this question on many fronts, including asteroid entry modeling, tsunami generation and propagation simulations, modeling of coastal run-ups, inundation, and consequences, infrastructure damage estimates, and physics-based probabilistic impact risk assessment. We also organized the Second International Workshop on Asteroid Threat Assessment, focused on asteroid-generated tsunami and associated risk (Aug. 23-24, 2016). We will summarize our progress and present the highlights of our workshop, emphasizing its relevance to earth and planetary science. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Post-earthquake coastal evolution and recovery of an embayed beach in central-southern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez, Carolina; Rojas, Daniel; Quezada, Matías; Quezada, Jorge; Oliva, Ricardo

2015-12-01

Earthquakes and tsunamis are significant factors for change along active margin shores, and influence coastal evolution. The Chilean coast was affected in 2010 by a subduction earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 8.8 and also by a trans-Pacific tsunami, which generated violent geomorphologic changes and damaged homes. Following these events, the magnitude of the changes which affect Chile's central-southern coast (37°S) and the role of subduction earthquakes in coastal evolution on a historical scale were investigated. At Lebu bay (an embayed beach) data were generated for variations in time and space along the shoreline, topographical and bathymetric changes in the bay, and for morphodynamic littoral processes. Logarithmic and parabolic models were applied to the shoreline along with map overlays in order to determine changes. The shoreline processes were analyzed based on statistics for waves, tides and sediment transport for pre- and post-tsunami conditions. An average accretion rate of 2.80 m/year (1984-2010) was established for the shoreline, with a strong trend towards accretion in the last 30 years. A parabolic function best represented the general form of the shoreline, although the presence of a river in the concave zone affected the fit in this sector. Two factors controlled historical changes on the beach: one of anthropic origin in addition to the earthquake and tsunami on February 27th, 2010. The post-earthquake recovery was fast, and currently the beach is in a stable condition despite the inter-seismic subsidence process previous to the event. This coastal system showed a high resilience in the face of coastal geomorphological changes induced by high-impact natural disturbances. However, the opposite occurred in relation to changes induced by anthropogenic disturbances.

Modeling tsunamis induced by retrogressive submarine landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, F.; Kim, J.; Harbitz, C. B.

2015-12-01

Enormous submarine landslides having volumes up to thousands of km3 and long run-out may cause tsunamis with widespread effects. Clay-rich landslides, such as Trænadjupet and Storegga offshore Norway commonly involve retrogressive mass and momentum release mechanisms that affect the tsunami generation. Therefore, such landslides may involve a large amount of smaller blocks. As a consequence, the failure mechanisms and release rate of the individual blocks are of importance for the tsunami generation. Previous attempts to model the tsunami generation due to retrogressive landslides are few, and limited to idealized conditions. Here, we review the basic effects of retrogression on tsunamigenesis in simple geometries. To this end, two different methods are employed for the landslide motion, a series block with pre-scribed time lags and kinematics, and a dynamic retrogressive model where the inter-block time lag is determined by the model. The effect of parameters such as time lag on wave-height, wave-length, and dispersion are discussed. Finally, we discuss how the retrogressive effects may have influenced the tsunamis due to large landslides such as the Storegga slide. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under grant number 231252 (Project TsunamiLand) and the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603839 (Project ASTARTE).

Using Interdisciplinary Research Methods to Revise and Strengthen the NWS TsunamiReadyTM Community Recognition Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C.; Gregg, C. E.; Ritchie, L.; Stephen, M.; Farnham, C.; Fraser, S. A.; Gill, D.; Horan, J.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnson, V.; Johnston, D.

2013-12-01

The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) partnered with the National Weather Service (NWS) in early 2000 to create the TsunamiReadyTM Community Recognition program. TsunamiReadyTM, modeled after the older NWS StormReadyTM program, is designed to help cities, towns, counties, universities and other large sites in coastal areas reduce the potential for disastrous tsunami-related consequences. To achieve TsunamiReadyTM recognition, communities must meet certain criteria aimed at better preparing a community for tsunami, including specific actions within the following categories: communications and coordination, tsunami warning reception, local warning dissemination, community preparedness, and administration. Using multidisciplinary research methods and strategies from Public Health; Psychology; Political, Social and Physical Sciences and Evaluation, our research team is working directly with a purposive sample of community stakeholders in collaboration and feedback focus group sessions. Invitation to participate is based on a variety of factors including but not limited to an individual's role as a formal or informal community leader (e.g., in business, government, civic organizations), or their organization or agency affiliation to emergency management and response. Community organizing and qualitative research methods are being used to elicit discussion regarding TsunamiReadyTM requirements and the division of requirements based on some aspect of tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk, such as proximity to active or passive plate margins or subduction zone generated tsunamis versus earthquake-landslide generated tsunamis . The primary aim of this research is to use social science to revise and refine the NWS TsunamiReadyTM Guidelines in an effort to better prepare communities to reduce risk to tsunamis.

Numerical experiment on tsunami deposit distribution process by using tsunami sediment transport model in historical tsunami event of megathrust Nankai trough earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, K.; Sugawara, D.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

A large flow caused by tsunami transports sediments from beach and forms tsunami deposits in land and coastal lakes. A tsunami deposit has been found in their undisturbed on coastal lakes especially. Okamura & Matsuoka (2012) found some tsunami deposits in the field survey of coastal lakes facing to the Nankai trough, and tsunami deposits due to the past eight Nankai Trough megathrust earthquakes they identified. The environment in coastal lakes is stably calm and suitable for tsunami deposits preservation compared to other topographical conditions such as plains. Therefore, there is a possibility that the recurrence interval of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis will be discussed with high resolution. In addition, it has been pointed out that small events that cannot be detected in plains could be separated finely (Sawai, 2012). Various aspects of past tsunami is expected to be elucidated, in consideration of topographical conditions of coastal lakes by using the relationship between the erosion-and-sedimentation process of the lake bottom and the external force of tsunami. In this research, numerical examination based on tsunami sediment transport model (Takahashi et al., 1999) was carried out on the site Ryujin-ike pond of Ohita, Japan where tsunami deposit was identified, and deposit migration analysis was conducted on the tsunami deposit distribution process of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Furthermore, examination of tsunami source conditions is possibly investigated by comparison studies of the observed data and the computation of tsunami deposit distribution. It is difficult to clarify details of tsunami source from indistinct information of paleogeographical conditions. However, this result shows that it can be used as a constraint condition of the tsunami source scale by combining tsunami deposit distribution in lakes with computation data.

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-01-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-12-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Applications of acoustic-gravity waves numerical modeling to tsunami signals observed by gravimetry satellites in very low orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brissaud, Q.; Garcia, R.; Sladen, A.; Martin, R.; Komatitsch, D.

2016-12-01

Acoustic and gravity waves propagating in planetary atmospheres have been studied intensively as markers of specific phenomena (tectonic events, explosions) or as contributors to atmosphere dynamics. To get a better understanding of the physics behind these dynamic processes, both acoustic and gravity waves propagation should be modeled in an attenuating and windy 3D atmosphere from the ground all the way to the upper thermosphere. Thus, in order to provide an efficient numerical tool at the regional or global scale we introduce a high-order finite-difference time domain (FDTD) approach that relies on the linearized compressible Navier-Stokes equations with spatially non constant physical parameters (density, viscosities and speed of sound) and background velocities (wind). We present applications of these simulations to the propagation of gravity waves generated by tsunamis for realistic cases for which atmospheric models are extracted from empirical models including variations with altitude of atmospheric parameters, and tsunami forcing at the ocean surface is extracted from shallow water simulations. We describe the specific difficulties induced by the size of the simulation, the boundary conditions and the spherical geometry and compare the simulation outputs to data gathered by gravimetric satellites crossing gravity waves generated by tsunamis.

New Tsunami Inundation Maps for California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose; Uslu, Burak; Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas

2010-05-01

California is the first US State to complete its tsunami inundation mapping. A new generation of tsunami inundation maps is now available for 17 coastal counties.. The new maps offer improved coverage for many areas, they are based on the most recent descriptions of potential tsunami farfield and nearfield sources and use the best available bathymetric and topographic data for modelling. The need for new tsunami maps for California became clear since Synolakis et al (1998) described how inundation projections derived with inundation models that fully calculate the wave evolution over dry land can be as high as twice the values predicted with earlier threshold models, for tsunamis originating from tectonic source. Since the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami when the hazard from offshore submarine landslides was better understood (Bardet et al, 2003), the State of California funded the development of the first generation of maps, based on local tectonic and landslide sources. Most of the hazard was dominated by offshore landslides, whose return period remains unknown but is believed to be higher than 1000 years for any given locale, at least in Southern California. The new generation of maps incorporates local and distant scenarios. The partnership between the Tsunami Research Center at USC, the California Emergency Management Agency and the California Seismic Safety Commission let the State to be the first among all US States to complete the maps. (Exceptions include the offshore islands and Newport Beach, where higher resolution maps are under way). The maps were produced with the lowest cost per mile of coastline, per resident or per map than all other States, because of the seamless integration of the USC and NOAA databases and the use of the MOST model. They are a significant improvement over earlier map generations. As part of a continuous improvement in response, mitigation and planning and community education, the California inundation maps can contribute in reducing tsunami risk. References -Bardet, JP et al (2003), Landslide tsunamis: Recent findings and research directions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 160, (10-11), 1793-1809. -Eisner, R., Borrero, C., Synolakis, C.E. (2001) Inundation Maps for the State of California, International Tsunami Symposium, ITS 2001 Proceedings, NHTMP Review Paper #4, 67-81. -Synolakis, C.E., D. McCarthy, V.V. Titov, J.C. Borrero, (1998) Evaluating the Tsunami Risk in California, CALIFORNIA AND THE WORLD OCEAN '97, 1225-1236, Proceedings ASCE, ISBN: 0-7844-0297-3.

Tsunami Generation Modelling for Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annunziato, A.; Matias, L.; Ulutas, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Carrilho, F.

2009-04-01

In the frame of a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the Institute of Meteorology in Portugal, a complete analytical tool to support Early Warning Systems is being developed. The tool will be part of the Portuguese National Early Warning System and will be used also in the frame of the UNESCO North Atlantic Section of the Tsunami Early Warning System. The system called Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) includes a worldwide scenario database that has been pre-calculated using the SWAN-JRC code (Annunziato, 2007). This code uses a simplified fault generation mechanism and the hydraulic model is based on the SWAN code (Mader, 1988). In addition to the pre-defined scenario, a system of computers is always ready to start a new calculation whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismic networks (such as USGS or EMSC) and is judged capable to generate a Tsunami. The calculation is performed using minimal parameters (epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake): the programme calculates the rupture length and rupture width by using empirical relationship proposed by Ward (2002). The database calculations, as well the newly generated calculations with the current conditions are therefore available to TAT where the real online analysis is performed. The system allows to analyze also sea level measurements available worldwide in order to compare them and decide if a tsunami is really occurring or not. Although TAT, connected with the scenario database and the online calculation system, is at the moment the only software that can support the tsunami analysis on a global scale, we are convinced that the fault generation mechanism is too simplified to give a correct tsunami prediction. Furthermore short tsunami arrival times especially require a possible earthquake source parameters data on tectonic features of the faults like strike, dip, rake and slip in order to minimize real time uncertainty of rupture parameters. Indeed the earthquake parameters available right after an earthquake are preliminary and could be inaccurate. Determining which earthquake source parameters would affect the initial height and time series of tsunamis will show the sensitivity of the tsunami time series to seismic source details. Therefore a new fault generation model will be adopted, according to the seismotectonics properties of the different regions, and finally included in the calculation scheme. In order to do this, within the collaboration framework of Portuguese authorities, a new model is being defined, starting from the seismic sources in the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Cadiz. As earthquakes occurring in North Atlantic and Caribbean sources may affect Portugal mainland, the Azores and Madeira archipelagos also these sources will be included in the analysis. Firstly we have started to examine the geometries of those sources that spawn tsunamis to understand the effect of fault geometry and depths of earthquakes. References: Annunziato, A., 2007. The Tsunami Assesment Modelling System by the Joint Research Center, Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol. 26, pp. 70-92. Mader, C.L., 1988. Numerical modelling of water waves, University of California Press, Berkeley, California. Ward, S.N., 2002. Tsunamis, Encyclopedia of Physical Science and Technology, Vol. 17, pp. 175-191, ed. Meyers, R.A., Academic Press.

The geological record of prehistorical tsunami at a coastal area of Beppu Bay in eastern Kyushu, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Fujino, S.; Chiba, T.; Shinozaki, T.; Okuwaki, R.; Takeda, D.

2015-12-01

Tsunamis are typically generated by plate-boundary ruptures at subduction zones, but also vertical displacement associated with intraplate earthquakes. Historical written records documented that coasts of Beppu Bay, eastern Kyushu, Japan was devastated by a tsunami associated with the AD 1596 Keicho-Bungo earthquake (M7.0). It is considered that the earthquake occurred at submarine active faults in the bay. The aim of this study is to unravel the occurrence age and source of tsunamis that struck the coast of the bay in prehistorical ages. This study may also make a contribution to the understanding of tsunami-generating system at submarine active faults. We conducted a coring survey at paddy fields along the north coast of the bay. The 10 cm thick muddy sand layer with a few granules (hereinafter, sand layer), bounded by sharp contacts, was evident in the 1.7 m long sediment core taken at 700 m from the shoreline. Plant materials obtained from mud above the sand layer was dated to 1880-2000 cal. yr BP. Sharp contacts between sand and surrounding muds imply that the sand layer is formed by a sudden event. Existence of mud clast in the sand layer indicates erosion of surface mud. There were no brackish-marine diatoms in surrounding mud, but they accounted for 5-6% of the total within the sand layer, indicating that the sand grains were sourced at least in part from brackish-marine environment. Mean grain size/sorting of the sand layer and beach sand were 2.31/0.94 and 2.03/0.41 phi. The difference in sorting probably suggests that the sand layer partly contains the onshore sediments eroded in inundation process. Additional coring surveys would clarify the distribution of prehistorical tsunami deposits and source of past tsunamis.

Simulations and analysis of asteroid-generated tsunamis using the shallow water equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, M. J.; LeVeque, R. J.; Weiss, R.

2016-12-01

We discuss tsunami propagation for asteroid-generated air bursts and water impacts. We present simulations for a range of conditions using the GeoClaw simulation software. Examples include meteors that span 5 to 250 MT of kinetic energy, and use bathymetry from the U.S. coastline. We also study radially symmetric one-dimensional equations to better explore the nature and decay rate of waves generated by air burst pressure disturbances traveling at the speed of sound in air, which is much greater than the gravity wave speed of the tsunami generated. One-dimensional simulations along a transect of bathymetry are also used to explore the resolution needed for the full two-dimensional simulations, which are much more expensive even with the use of adaptive mesh refinement due to the short wave lengths of these tsunamis. For this same reason, shallow water equations may be inadequate and we also discuss dispersive effects.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madlazim,, E-mail: m-lazim@physics.its.ac.id; Hariyono, E., E-mail: m-lazim@physics.its.ac.id

The purpose of the study was to estimate P-wave rupture durations (T{sub dur}), dominant periods (T{sub d}) and exceeds duration (T{sub 50Ex}) simultaneously for local events, shallow earthquakes which occurred off the coast of Indonesia. Although the all earthquakes had parameters of magnitude more than 6,3 and depth less than 70 km, part of the earthquakes generated a tsunami while the other events (Mw=7.8) did not. Analysis using Joko Tingkir of the above stated parameters helped understand the tsunami generation of these earthquakes. Measurements from vertical component broadband P-wave quake velocity records and determination of the above stated parameters canmore » provide a direct procedure for assessing rapidly the potential for tsunami generation. The results of the present study and the analysis of the seismic parameters helped explain why the events generated a tsunami, while the others did not.« less

Risk mapping and tsunami mitigation in Gunungkidul area, Yogyakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mardiatno, Djati; Sunarto, WF, Lies Rahayu; Saptadi, Gatot; Ayuningtyas, Efrinda Ari

2015-04-01

Coastal area of Gunungkidul Regency is one of the areas prone to tsunami in Indonesia. In contrary, currently, this area is very intensively developed as one of the favourite tourism destination. This paper is aimed at explaining tsunami risk and a mitigation type in Gunungkidul Area, Yogyakarta. Digital elevation model (DEM) and coastal morphology were used to generate tsunami hazard map. Vulnerability was analysed by utilizing land use data. Information from previous studies (e.g. from GTZ) were also considered for analysis. Tsunami risk was classified into three classes, i.e. high risk, medium risk, and low risk and visualized in the form of tsunami risk map. Tsunami risk map is a tool which can be used as disaster reduction instrument, such as for evacuation routes planning. Based on the preliminary results of this research, it is clear that tsunami risk in this area is varied depend on the morphological condition of the location. There are five coastal area selected as the location, i.e. Ngrenehan, Baron, Sepanjang, PulangSawal, and Sadeng. All locations have the high risk zone to tsunami, especially for bay area. Evacuation routes were generated for all locations by considering the local landscape condition. There are several differences of evacuation ways for each location.

Explosive eruption, flank collapse and megatsunami at Tenerife ca. 170 ka

PubMed Central

Paris, Raphaël; Bravo, Juan J. Coello; González, María E. Martín; Kelfoun, Karim; Nauret, François

2017-01-01

Giant mass failures of oceanic shield volcanoes that generate tsunamis potentially represent a high-magnitude but low-frequency hazard, and it is actually difficult to infer the mechanisms and dynamics controlling them. Here we document tsunami deposits at high elevation (up to 132 m) on the north-western slopes of Tenerife, Canary Islands, as a new evidence of megatsunami generated by volcano flank failure. Analyses of the tsunami deposits demonstrate that two main tsunamis impacted the coasts of Tenerife 170 kyr ago. The first tsunami was generated during the submarine stage of a retrogressive failure of the northern flank of the island, whereas the second one followed the debris avalanche of the subaerial edifice and incorporated pumices from an on-going ignimbrite-forming eruption. Coupling between a massive retrogressive flank failure and a large explosive eruption represents a new type of volcano-tectonic event on oceanic shield volcanoes and a new hazard scenario. PMID:28504256

Post-eruptive flooding of Santorini caldera and implications for tsunami generation.

PubMed

Nomikou, P; Druitt, T H; Hübscher, C; Mather, T A; Paulatto, M; Kalnins, L M; Kelfoun, K; Papanikolaou, D; Bejelou, K; Lampridou, D; Pyle, D M; Carey, S; Watts, A B; Weiß, B; Parks, M M

2016-11-08

Caldera-forming eruptions of island volcanoes generate tsunamis by the interaction of different eruptive phenomena with the sea. Such tsunamis are a major hazard, but forward models of their impacts are limited by poor understanding of source mechanisms. The caldera-forming eruption of Santorini in the Late Bronze Age is known to have been tsunamigenic, and caldera collapse has been proposed as a mechanism. Here, we present bathymetric and seismic evidence showing that the caldera was not open to the sea during the main phase of the eruption, but was flooded once the eruption had finished. Inflow of water and associated landsliding cut a deep, 2.0-2.5 km 3 , submarine channel, thus filling the caldera in less than a couple of days. If, as at most such volcanoes, caldera collapse occurred syn-eruptively, then it cannot have generated tsunamis. Entry of pyroclastic flows into the sea, combined with slumping of submarine pyroclastic accumulations, were the main mechanisms of tsunami production.

Post-eruptive flooding of Santorini caldera and implications for tsunami generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomikou, P.; Druitt, T. H.; Hübscher, C.; Mather, T. A.; Paulatto, M.; Kalnins, L. M.; Kelfoun, K.; Papanikolaou, D.; Bejelou, K.; Lampridou, D.; Pyle, D. M.; Carey, S.; Watts, A. B.; Weiß, B.; Parks, M. M.

2016-11-01

Caldera-forming eruptions of island volcanoes generate tsunamis by the interaction of different eruptive phenomena with the sea. Such tsunamis are a major hazard, but forward models of their impacts are limited by poor understanding of source mechanisms. The caldera-forming eruption of Santorini in the Late Bronze Age is known to have been tsunamigenic, and caldera collapse has been proposed as a mechanism. Here, we present bathymetric and seismic evidence showing that the caldera was not open to the sea during the main phase of the eruption, but was flooded once the eruption had finished. Inflow of water and associated landsliding cut a deep, 2.0-2.5 km3, submarine channel, thus filling the caldera in less than a couple of days. If, as at most such volcanoes, caldera collapse occurred syn-eruptively, then it cannot have generated tsunamis. Entry of pyroclastic flows into the sea, combined with slumping of submarine pyroclastic accumulations, were the main mechanisms of tsunami production.

Post-eruptive flooding of Santorini caldera and implications for tsunami generation

PubMed Central

Nomikou, P.; Druitt, T. H.; Hübscher, C.; Mather, T. A.; Paulatto, M.; Kalnins, L. M.; Kelfoun, K.; Papanikolaou, D.; Bejelou, K.; Lampridou, D.; Pyle, D. M.; Carey, S.; Watts, A. B.; Weiß, B.; Parks, M. M.

2016-01-01

Caldera-forming eruptions of island volcanoes generate tsunamis by the interaction of different eruptive phenomena with the sea. Such tsunamis are a major hazard, but forward models of their impacts are limited by poor understanding of source mechanisms. The caldera-forming eruption of Santorini in the Late Bronze Age is known to have been tsunamigenic, and caldera collapse has been proposed as a mechanism. Here, we present bathymetric and seismic evidence showing that the caldera was not open to the sea during the main phase of the eruption, but was flooded once the eruption had finished. Inflow of water and associated landsliding cut a deep, 2.0–2.5 km3, submarine channel, thus filling the caldera in less than a couple of days. If, as at most such volcanoes, caldera collapse occurred syn-eruptively, then it cannot have generated tsunamis. Entry of pyroclastic flows into the sea, combined with slumping of submarine pyroclastic accumulations, were the main mechanisms of tsunami production. PMID:27824353

Contribution of Asteroid Generated Tsunami to the Impact Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj

2017-01-01

The long-standing uncertainty about the importance of asteroid-generated tsunami was addressed at a workshop in August 2016, co-sponsored by NASA and NOAA. Experts from NASA, NOAA, the DoE tri-labs (LLNL, SNL, and LANL), DHS, FEMA, and academia addressed the hazard of tsunami created by asteroid impacts, focusing primarily on NEAs with diameter less than 250m. Participants jointly identified key issues and shared information for nearly a year to coordinate their results for discussion at the workshop. They used modern computational tools to examine 1) Near-field wave generation by the impact; 2) Long-distance wave propagation; 3) Damage from coastal run-up and inundation, and associated hazard. The workshop resulted in broad consensus that the asteroid impact tsunami threat is not as great as previously thought.

New Methodology for Computing Subaerial Landslide-Tsunamis: Application to the 2015 Tyndall Glacier Landslide, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, D. L.; Iverson, R. M.; Cannon, C. M.

2016-12-01

Landslide-generated tsunamis pose significant hazards to coastal communities and infrastructure, but developing models to assess these hazards presents challenges beyond those confronted when modeling seismically generated tsunamis. We present a new methodology in which our depth-averaged two-phase model D-Claw (Proc. Roy. Soc. A, 2014, doi: 10.1098/rspa.2013.0819 and doi:10.1098/rspa.2013.0820) is used to simulate all stages of landslide dynamics and subsequent tsunami generation and propagation. D-Claw was developed to simulate landslides and debris-flows, but if granular solids are absent, then the D-Claw equations reduce to the shallow-water equations commonly used to model tsunamis. Because the model describes the evolution of solid and fluid volume fractions, it treats both landslides and tsunamis as special cases of a more general class of phenomena, and the landslide and tsunami can be simulated as a single-layer continuum with spatially and temporally evolving solid-grain concentrations. This seamless approach accommodates wave generation via mass displacement and longitudinal momentum transfer, the dominant mechanisms producing impulse waves when large subaerial landslides impact relatively shallow bodies of water. To test our methodology, we used D-Claw to model a large subaerial landslide and resulting tsunami that occurred on October, 17, 2015, in Taan Fjord near the terminus of Tyndall Glacier, Alaska. The estimated landslide volume derived from radiated long-period seismicity (C. Stark (2015), Abstract EP51D-08, AGU Fall Meeting) was about 70-80 million cubic meters. Guided by satellite imagery and this volume estimate, we inferred an approximate landslide basal slip surface, and we used material property values identical to those used in our previous modeling of the 2014 Oso, Washington, landslide. With these inputs the modeled tsunami inundation patterns on shorelines compare well with observations derived from satellite imagery.

New contributions to the debate on the cause of the January 11th, 1693 tsunami in eastern Sicily (Italy): earthquake or offshore landslide source (or may be both)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Argnani, A.

2007-12-01

Eastern Sicily is among the most exposed regions in Italy and in the whole Mediterranean to tsunami hazard and risk. The historical tsunamis recorded here were generally associated to moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes. The largest tsunami documented in the area occurred on January 11th, 1693. It followed the highest-magnitude earthquake (7.4) of the Italian seismic history. The tsunami, whose first significant motion was a retreat along the entire eastern Sicily coastline, produced the most devastating effects at Augusta (15 meters run-up) and Catania, being relevant at Siracusa and Messina too. A lively debate exists on whether the earthquake was the only source of the tsunami, or other causes (such as submarine landslides, possibly triggered by the earthquake) contributed to the tsunami generation. In the framework of the EC funded project TRANSFER, we investigate both hypotheses, starting from suitable onshore and offshore faults as well as from offshore landslide bodies, and hence simulating numerically the ensuing tsunami and comparing the results with the available historical information. We base on the results obtained during recent offshore surveys, in particular the multichannel seismic survey MESC2001, carried out in year 2001 on board the R/V Urania of the Italian National Council of Researches (CNR), which mapped both active normal faults and a number of possible landslide bodies along the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, the most prominent tectonic structure found just few kilometres offshore eastern Sicily. From the modelling point of view, the initial condition for the earthquake- generated tsunamis coincides with the vertical coseismic deformation of the seafloor. Instead, the landslide motion is simulated through the Lagrangian block model UBO-BLOCK2, developed at the University of Bologna. Finally, the finite-element code UBO-TSUFE, implemented by the same research team, is used to simulate the tsunami generation and propagation. The main conclusions are: 1) if the earthquake is postulated to be the only responsible for the tsunami, then the historical information can be reproduced only by assuming an offshore tectonic source; 2) taking into account the largest of the mapped landslides, we are able to reproduce quite satisfactorily both the first polarity and the size distribution of the tsunami; 3) we cannot rule out the idea that there was a concurrent contribution of the earthquake and of the landslide in generating the tsunami.

Large Historical Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Italy: The Neglected Tsunami Research Point of View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2015-12-01

It is known that tsunamis are rather rare events, especially when compared to earthquakes, and the Italian coasts are no exception. Nonetheless, a striking evidence is that 6 out of 10 earthquakes occurred in the last thousand years in Italy, and having equivalent moment magnitude equal or larger than 7 where accompanied by destructive or heavily damaging tsunamis. If we extend the lower limit of the equivalent moment magnitude down to 6.5 the percentage decreases (around 40%), but is still significant. Famous events like those occurred on 30 July 1627 in Gargano, on 11 January 1693 in eastern Sicily, and on 28 December 1908 in the Messina Straits are part of this list: they were all characterized by maximum run-ups of several meters (13 m for the 1908 tsunami), significant maximum inundation distances, and large (although not precisely quantifiable) numbers of victims. Further evidences provided in the last decade by paleo-tsunami deposit analyses help to better characterize the tsunami impact and confirm that none of the cited events can be reduced to local or secondary effects. Proper analysis and simulation of available tsunami data would then appear as an obvious part of the correct definition of the sources responsible for the largest Italian tsunamigenic earthquakes, in a process in which different datasets analyzed by different disciplines must be reconciled rather than put into contrast with each other. Unfortunately, macroseismic, seismic and geological/geomorphological observations and data typically are assigned much heavier weights, and in-land faults are often assigned larger credit than the offshore ones, even when evidence is provided by tsunami simulations that they are not at all capable of justifying the observed tsunami effects. Tsunami generation is imputed a-priori to only supposed, and sometimes even non-existing, submarine landslides. We try to summarize the tsunami research point of view on the largest Italian historical tsunamigenic earthquakes; we highlight the open problems, and suggest that tsunami observations and simulations can contribute towards their solution. This study is funded in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Spatial Distribution and Sedimentary Facies of the 2007 Solomon Islands Tsunami Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Y.; Nishimura, Y.; Woodward, S.

2007-12-01

We conducted a field survey of the extent of damage, crustal deformation, and onshore deposits caused by 2007 Solomon Islands tsunami in Ghizo and adjacent islands in the western Solomon Islands, from 13th to 18th April, 2007. Our survey team was comprised of six Japanese and one American researcher. Three of us, the authors, mainly investigated tsunami deposits in three villages (Titiana, Suva, and Pailongge) in southern Ghizo Island. One member of our team re-investigated the deposits in June 2007. The tsunami generated sheet-like deposits of coral beach sand on the flat plain in Titiana. Beside the sea coast, the tsunami wave eroded ground surfaces and formed small scarps at 30 m from the sea. Just interior of the scarps, tsunami deposits accumulated up to 9 cm in thickness. The thickness decreased with distance from the sea and was also affected by microtopography. No sandy tsunami deposits were observed on the inland area between 170 m and 210 m from the sea. The upper boundary of inundation was recognized at about 210 m from the sea because of accumulation of driftwood and floating debris. In Suva and Pailongge, the outline of sand-sheet distribution is the same as it in Titiana. The tsunami had a maximum thickness of 10 cm and two or three sand layers are separated by thin humic sand layers. These humic layers were likely supplied from hillslopes eroded by the tsunami and transported by return-flows. These successions of deposits suggest that tsunami waves inundated at least two times. This is consistent with the number of large waves told by eyewitnesses. In the Solomon Islands, the plentiful rainfall causes erosion and resedimentation of tsunami deposits. Furthermore, the sedimentary structures will be destroyed by chemical weathering in warm and moist environment, and bioturbation by plants, animals, and human activities. The sedimentary structures had been preserved till the end of June 2007, but had already been penetrated by plant roots and sandpipes of crabs. We believe that the knowledge of weathering process of tsunami deposits is important for interpretation of sedimentary structures of paleo-tsunami deposits.

The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami on the Coast of Mexico: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaytsev, Oleg; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Thomson, Richard E.

2017-08-01

The Tohoku (East Japan) earthquake of 11 March 2011 ( M w 9.0) generated a great trans-oceanic tsunami that spread throughout the Pacific Ocean, where it was measured by numerous coastal tide gauges and open-ocean DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) stations. Statistical and spectral analyses of the tsunami waves recorded along the Pacific coast of Mexico have enabled us to estimate the principal parameters of the waves along the coast and to compare statistical features of the tsunami with other tsunamis recorded on this coast. We identify coastal "hot spots"—Manzanillo, Zihuatanejo, Acapulco, and Ensenada—corresponding to sites having highest tsunami hazard potential, where wave heights during the 2011 event exceeded 1.5-2 m and tsunami-induced currents were strong enough to close port operations. Based on a joint spectral analysis of the tsunamis and background noise, we reconstructed the spectra of tsunami waves in the deep ocean and found that, with the exception of the high-frequency spectral band (>5 cph), the spectra are in close agreement with the "true" tsunami spectra determined from DART bottom pressure records. The departure of the high-frequency spectra in the coastal region from the deep-sea spectra is shown to be related to background infragravity waves generated in the coastal zone. The total energy and frequency content of the Tohoku tsunami is compared with the corresponding results for the 2010 Chilean tsunami. Our findings show that the integral open-ocean tsunami energy, I 0, was 2.30 cm2, or approximately 1.7 times larger than for the 2010 event. Comparison of this parameter with the mean coastal tsunami variance (451 cm2) indicates that tsunami waves propagating onshore from the open ocean amplified by 14 times; the same was observed for the 2010 tsunami. The "tsunami colour" (frequency content) for the 2011 Tohoku tsunami was "red", with about 65% of the total energy associated with low-frequency waves at frequencies <1.7 cph (periods >35 min). The "red colour" (i.e., the prevalence of low-frequency waves) in the 2011 Tohoku, as well as in the 2010 Chile tsunamis, is explained by the large extension of the source areas. In contrast, the 2014 and 2015 Chilean earthquakes had much smaller source areas and, consequently, induced "bluish" (high-frequency) tsunamis.

Application of the SCALE TSUNAMI Tools for the Validation of Criticality Safety Calculations Involving 233U

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mueller, Don; Rearden, Bradley T; Hollenbach, Daniel F

2009-02-01

The Radiochemical Development Facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been storing solid materials containing 233U for decades. Preparations are under way to process these materials into a form that is inherently safe from a nuclear criticality safety perspective. This will be accomplished by down-blending the {sup 233}U materials with depleted or natural uranium. At the request of the U.S. Department of Energy, a study has been performed using the SCALE sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools to demonstrate how these tools could be used to validate nuclear criticality safety calculations of selected process and storage configurations. ISOTEK nuclear criticality safetymore » staff provided four models that are representative of the criticality safety calculations for which validation will be needed. The SCALE TSUNAMI-1D and TSUNAMI-3D sequences were used to generate energy-dependent k{sub eff} sensitivity profiles for each nuclide and reaction present in the four safety analysis models, also referred to as the applications, and in a large set of critical experiments. The SCALE TSUNAMI-IP module was used together with the sensitivity profiles and the cross-section uncertainty data contained in the SCALE covariance data files to propagate the cross-section uncertainties ({Delta}{sigma}/{sigma}) to k{sub eff} uncertainties ({Delta}k/k) for each application model. The SCALE TSUNAMI-IP module was also used to evaluate the similarity of each of the 672 critical experiments with each application. Results of the uncertainty analysis and similarity assessment are presented in this report. A total of 142 experiments were judged to be similar to application 1, and 68 experiments were judged to be similar to application 2. None of the 672 experiments were judged to be adequately similar to applications 3 and 4. Discussion of the uncertainty analysis and similarity assessment is provided for each of the four applications. Example upper subcritical limits (USLs) were generated for application 1 based on trending of the energy of average lethargy of neutrons causing fission, trending of the TSUNAMI similarity parameters, and use of data adjustment techniques.« less

The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004-2014.

PubMed

Okal, Emile A

2015-10-28

Since the catastrophic Sumatra-Andaman tsunami took place in 2004, 16 other tsunamis have resulted in significant damage and 14 in casualties. We review the fundamental changes that have affected our command of tsunami issues as scientists, engineers and decision-makers, in the quest for improved wisdom in this respect. While several scientific paradigms have had to be altered or abandoned, new algorithms, e.g. the W seismic phase and real-time processing of fast-arriving seismic P waves, give us more powerful tools to estimate in real time the tsunamigenic character of an earthquake. We assign to each event a 'wisdom index' based on the warning issued (or not) during the event, and on the response of the population. While this approach is admittedly subjective, it clearly shows several robust trends: (i) we have made significant progress in our command of far-field warning, with only three casualties in the past 10 years; (ii) self-evacuation by educated populations in the near field is a key element of successful tsunami mitigation; (iii) there remains a significant cacophony between the scientific community and decision-makers in industry and government as documented during the 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku events; and (iv) the so-called 'tsunami earthquakes' generating larger tsunamis than expected from the size of their seismic source persist as a fundamental challenge, despite scientific progress towards characterizing these events in real time. © 2015 The Author(s).

Giant Landslides, Mega-Tsunamis, and Paleo-Sea Level in the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watts, P.; McMurtry, G. M.; Fryer, G. J.; Smith, J. R.; Imamura, F.

2001-12-01

We show considerable agreement between the ages of the two giant Alika landslides and dating of debris found tens to hundreds of meters above sea level in Hawaii. Despite the size of the landslides, controversy persists as to the ability to generate landslide tsunamis big enough to deposit the debris. We affirm that tsunami deposits are a sufficient explanation of the observed pattern of debris height. We also show that our tsunami simulations can be used to reduce the considerable uncertainty in subsidence history of the different Hawaiian islands, a current obstacle to interpreting the supposed deposits. Finally, we show that the onset of interglacials provides a probable explanation for the timing of these giant landslides over the last five million years. We predict that the greatest tsunami hazard facing the Hawaiian islands are giant landslides and that the current interglacial promotes the generation of mega-tsunamis from catastrophic volcano collapse. Hawaiian giant submarine landslide events have been recognized from detached submarine landslide blocks and fields of smaller debris by offshore surveys. Mega-tsunamis produced by giant landslides were first proposed for Hawaii and have since been implicated globally at other oceanic islands and along the continental margins. While not discounting the possibility of locally-generated tsunamis, some researchers have cast doubt upon the original hypothesis of giant waves impacting Lanai and other Hawaiian islands from flank failures of the nearby Mauna Loa Volcano on Hawaii island. Landslide tsunami simulations have advanced to the point where the tsunamigenic potential of the giant submarine landslides can be affirmed, while the subsidence history of different Hawaiian islands is still subject to debate.

Statistical emulation of landslide-induced tsunamis at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic

PubMed Central

Guillas, S.; Georgiopoulou, A.; Dias, F.

2017-01-01

Statistical methods constitute a useful approach to understand and quantify the uncertainty that governs complex tsunami mechanisms. Numerical experiments may often have a high computational cost. This forms a limiting factor for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, where numerous simulations are required. Statistical emulators, as surrogates of these simulators, can provide predictions of the physical process in a much faster and computationally inexpensive way. They can form a prominent solution to explore thousands of scenarios that would be otherwise numerically expensive and difficult to achieve. In this work, we build a statistical emulator of the deterministic codes used to simulate submarine sliding and tsunami generation at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic Ocean, in two stages. First we calibrate, against observations of the landslide deposits, the parameters used in the landslide simulations. This calibration is performed under a Bayesian framework using Gaussian Process (GP) emulators to approximate the landslide model, and the discrepancy function between model and observations. Distributions of the calibrated input parameters are obtained as a result of the calibration. In a second step, a GP emulator is built to mimic the coupled landslide-tsunami numerical process. The emulator propagates the uncertainties in the distributions of the calibrated input parameters inferred from the first step to the outputs. As a result, a quantification of the uncertainty of the maximum free surface elevation at specified locations is obtained. PMID:28484339

Statistical emulation of landslide-induced tsunamis at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic.

PubMed

Salmanidou, D M; Guillas, S; Georgiopoulou, A; Dias, F

2017-04-01

Statistical methods constitute a useful approach to understand and quantify the uncertainty that governs complex tsunami mechanisms. Numerical experiments may often have a high computational cost. This forms a limiting factor for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, where numerous simulations are required. Statistical emulators, as surrogates of these simulators, can provide predictions of the physical process in a much faster and computationally inexpensive way. They can form a prominent solution to explore thousands of scenarios that would be otherwise numerically expensive and difficult to achieve. In this work, we build a statistical emulator of the deterministic codes used to simulate submarine sliding and tsunami generation at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic Ocean, in two stages. First we calibrate, against observations of the landslide deposits, the parameters used in the landslide simulations. This calibration is performed under a Bayesian framework using Gaussian Process (GP) emulators to approximate the landslide model, and the discrepancy function between model and observations. Distributions of the calibrated input parameters are obtained as a result of the calibration. In a second step, a GP emulator is built to mimic the coupled landslide-tsunami numerical process. The emulator propagates the uncertainties in the distributions of the calibrated input parameters inferred from the first step to the outputs. As a result, a quantification of the uncertainty of the maximum free surface elevation at specified locations is obtained.

Seismically generated tsunamis.

PubMed

Arcas, Diego; Segur, Harvey

2012-04-13

People around the world know more about tsunamis than they did 10 years ago, primarily because of two events: a tsunami on 26 December 2004 that killed more than 200,000 people around the shores of the Indian Ocean; and an earthquake and tsunami off the coast of Japan on 11 March 2011 that killed nearly 15,000 more and triggered a nuclear accident, with consequences that are still unfolding. This paper has three objectives: (i) to summarize our current knowledge of the dynamics of tsunamis; (ii) to describe how that knowledge is now being used to forecast tsunamis; and (iii) to suggest some policy changes that might protect people better from the dangers of future tsunamis.

Tsunami in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, Evgueni; Medvedev, Igor; Ivaschenko, Alexey

2017-04-01

The severity of the climate and sparsely populated coastal regions are the reason why the Russian part of the Arctic Ocean belongs to the least studied areas of the World Ocean. In the same time intensive economic development of the Arctic region, specifically oil and gas industry, require studies of potential thread natural disasters that can cause environmental and technical damage of the coastal and maritime infrastructure of energy industry complex (FEC). Despite the fact that the seismic activity in the Arctic can be attributed to a moderate level, we cannot exclude the occurrence of destructive tsunami waves, directly threatening the FEC. According to the IAEA requirements, in the construction of nuclear power plants it is necessary to take into account the impact of all natural disasters with frequency more than 10-5 per year. Planned accommodation in the polar regions of the Russian floating nuclear power plants certainly requires an adequate risk assessment of the tsunami hazard in the areas of their location. Develop the concept of tsunami hazard assessment would be based on the numerical simulation of different scenarios in which reproduced the hypothetical seismic sources and generated tsunamis. The analysis of available geological, geophysical and seismological data for the period of instrumental observations (1918-2015) shows that the highest earthquake potential within the Arctic region is associated with the underwater Mid-Arctic zone of ocean bottom spreading (interplate boundary between Eurasia and North American plates) as well as with some areas of continental slope within the marginal seas. For the Arctic coast of Russia and the adjacent shelf area, the greatest tsunami danger of seismotectonic origin comes from the earthquakes occurring in the underwater Gakkel Ridge zone, the north-eastern part of the Mid-Arctic zone. In this area, one may expect earthquakes of magnitude Mw ˜ 6.5-7.0 at a rate of 10-2 per year and of magnitude Mw ˜ 7.5 at a rate of 10-3 per year. Additional tsunami threat might arise from rare earthquake occurrences within the continental slope of deep-sea basin of the Arctic Ocean and near the coast of the continent, where high probability of triggering submarine landslides exists that can generate even more dangerous tsunamis than those of seismotectonic origin. The most reliable information about the manifestation of the tsunami in the Arctic is associated with submarine landslide Storegga located on the continental slope of the Norwegian Sea and collapsed 8,200 years ago. Traces of sediment left behind by the tsunami waves on the coast, show that the maximum vertical tsunami runup could reach 20 meters. Factors causing the potential tsunami thread of landslides in Russian Arctic are sedimentation processes that can be associated with the formation of the alluvial fans of the great Siberian rivers Ob, Yenisei and Lena.

Field survey of the 1 April 2014 Iquique tsunami along the coasts of Chile and Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, M.; Fritz, H. M.

2014-12-01

On 1 April, 2014 a magnitude Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred off the coast of northern Chile less than 100 km NW of Iquique within a region of historic quiescence termed the northern Chile seismic gap. The ensuing tsunami inundation caused mostly minor damage centered in Iquique and neighbouring stretches of coastline. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from the past 1868 and 1877 tsunamis in the region along with the recent 2010 Maule tsunami, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. There were no tsunami victims, while a handful of fatalities were associated to the earthquake and the tsunami evacuation. The local scientist deployed in the morning hours to start the tsunami survey in Iquique on the day after the earthquake. The international scientist joined the local effort from April 6 to 11. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns, performance of the navigation infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The ITST covered a 700 km stretch of coastline from the Mejillones Peninsula (23.5° S) north of Antofagasta in Chile up to Vila Vila (18.1° S) in southern Peru. We surveyed 30 locations with differential GPS and laser range finders. The tsunami impact peaked in the vicinity of Iquique exceeding 4 m in tsunami height. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along the coastlines of Chile and Peru both at local and regional scales. The tsunami occurred in the evening hours limiting the availability of eyewitness video footages. Observations from the 2014 Chile tsunami are compared against the 1868, 1877 and 2010 Chile tsunamis. Given the magnitude of the 1 April 2014 earthquake the tsunami could have been significantly larger. However the absence of a massive tsunami may mislead residents in the future to believe another minor tsunami may be generated after an earthquake of similar magnitude. Hence the April fool's day event poses significant challenges to community-based education. The team interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and educated residents about tsunami hazards since awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from locally generated tsunamis.

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Luchuan

2015-04-01

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters Luchuan Ren, Jianwei Tian, Mingli Hong Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe, Heibei Province, 065201, P.R. China It is obvious that the uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights in offshore area are partly from uncertainties of the potential seismic tsunami source parameters. A global sensitivity analysis method on the maximum tsunami wave heights to the potential seismic source parameters is put forward in this paper. The tsunami wave heights are calculated by COMCOT ( the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model), on the assumption that an earthquake with magnitude MW8.0 occurred at the northern fault segment along the Manila Trench and triggered a tsunami in the South China Sea. We select the simulated results of maximum tsunami wave heights at specific sites in offshore area to verify the validity of the method proposed in this paper. For ranking importance order of the uncertainties of potential seismic source parameters (the earthquake's magnitude, the focal depth, the strike angle, dip angle and slip angle etc..) in generating uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights, we chose Morris method to analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to the aforementioned parameters, and give several qualitative descriptions of nonlinear or linear effects of them on the maximum tsunami wave heights. We quantitatively analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to these parameters and the interaction effects among these parameters on the maximum tsunami wave heights by means of the extended FAST method afterward. The results shows that the maximum tsunami wave heights are very sensitive to the earthquake magnitude, followed successively by the epicenter location, the strike angle and dip angle, the interactions effect between the sensitive parameters are very obvious at specific site in offshore area, and there exist differences in importance order in generating uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights for same group parameters at different specific sites in offshore area. These results are helpful to deeply understand the relationship between the tsunami wave heights and the seismic tsunami source parameters. Keywords: Global sensitivity analysis; Tsunami wave height; Potential seismic tsunami source parameter; Morris method; Extended FAST method

Pacific Basin tsunami hazards associated with mass flows in the Aleutian arc of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Watts, Philip; Shi, Fengyan; Kirby, James T.

2009-01-01

We analyze mass-flow tsunami generation for selected areas within the Aleutian arc of Alaska using results from numerical simulation of hypothetical but plausible mass-flow sources such as submarine landslides and volcanic debris avalanches. The Aleutian arc consists of a chain of volcanic mountains, volcanic islands, and submarine canyons, surrounded by a low-relief continental shelf above about 1000–2000 m water depth. Parts of the arc are fragmented into a series of fault-bounded blocks, tens to hundreds of kilometers in length, and separated from one another by distinctive fault-controlled canyons that are roughly normal to the arc axis. The canyons are natural regions for the accumulation and conveyance of sediment derived from glacial and volcanic processes. The volcanic islands in the region include a number of historically active volcanoes and some possess geological evidence for large-scale sector collapse into the sea. Large scale mass-flow deposits have not been mapped on the seafloor south of the Aleutian Islands, in part because most of the area has never been examined at the resolution required to identify such features, and in part because of the complex nature of erosional and depositional processes. Extensive submarine landslide deposits and debris flows are known on the north side of the arc and are common in similar settings elsewhere and thus they likely exist on the trench slope south of the Aleutian Islands. Because the Aleutian arc is surrounded by deep, open ocean, mass flows of unconsolidated debris that originate either as submarine landslides or as volcanic debris avalanches entering the sea may be potential tsunami sources. To test this hypothesis we present a series of numerical simulations of submarine mass-flow initiated tsunamis from eight different source areas. We consider four submarine mass flows originating in submarine canyons and four flows that evolve from submarine landslides on the trench slope. The flows have lengths that range from 40 to 80 km, maximum thicknesses of 400–800 m, and maximum widths of 10–40 km. We also evaluate tsunami generation by volcanic debris avalanches associated with flank collapse, at four locations (Makushin, Cleveland, Seguam and Yunaska SW volcanoes), which represent large to moderate sized events in this region. We calculate tsunami sources using the numerical model TOPICS and simulate wave propagation across the Pacific using a spherical Boussinesq model, which is a modified version of the public domain code FUNWAVE. Our numerical simulations indicate that geologically plausible mass flows originating in the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands can indeed generate large local tsunamis as well as large transoceanic tsunamis. These waves may be several meters in elevation at distal locations, such as Japan, Hawaii, and along the North and South American coastlines where they would constitute significant hazards.

The destructive 1946 Unimak near-field tsunami: New evidence for a submarine slide source from reprocessed marine geophysical data

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Huene, Roland E.; Kirby, Stephen; Miller, John J.; Dartnell, Peter

2014-01-01

The Mw 8.6 earthquake in 1946 off the Pacific shore of Unimak Island at the end of the Alaska Peninsula generated a far-field tsunami that crossed the Pacific to Antarctica. Its tsunami magnitude, 9.3, is comparable to the 9.1 magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. On Unimak Island's Pacific shore, a runup of 42 m destroyed the lighthouse at Scotch Cap. Elsewhere, localized tsunamis with such high runups have been interpreted as caused by large submarine landslides. However, previous to this study, no landslide large enough to generate this runup was found in the area that is limited by the time interval between earthquake shaking and tsunami inundation at Scotch Cap. Reworking of a seismic reflection transect and colocated multibeam bathymetric surveys reveal a landslide block that may explain the 1946 high runup. It is seaward of Scotch Cap on the midslope terrace and within the time-limited area.

Tsunami Generation and Propagation by 3D deformable Landslides and Application to Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFall, Brian C.; Fritz, Hermann M.

2014-05-01

Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse account for some of the most catastrophic natural disasters recorded and can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1

Physical Modeling of Tsunamis Generated By 3D Deformable Landslides in Various Scenarios From Fjords to Conical Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.

2013-12-01

Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Two different materials are used to simulate landslides to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1

Non-seismic tsunamis: filling the forecast gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, C. W.; Titov, V. V.; Spillane, M. C.

2015-12-01

Earthquakes are the generation mechanism in over 85% of tsunamis. However, non-seismic tsunamis, including those generated by meteorological events, landslides, volcanoes, and asteroid impacts, can inundate significant area and have a large far-field effect. The current National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tsunami forecast system falls short in detecting these phenomena. This study attempts to classify the range of effects possible from these non-seismic threats, and to investigate detection methods appropriate for use in a forecast system. Typical observation platforms are assessed, including DART bottom pressure recorders and tide gauges. Other detection paths include atmospheric pressure anomaly algorithms for detecting meteotsunamis and the early identification of asteroids large enough to produce a regional hazard. Real-time assessment of observations for forecast use can provide guidance to mitigate the effects of a non-seismic tsunami.

Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Y. Tony

2009-01-01

A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground-motion measurements were available. Development of a global tsunami-warning system utilizing an expanded network of coastal GPS stations was under consideration at the time of reporting the information for this article.

Introduction to "Tsunami Science: Ten Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Volume I"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Borrero, Jose C.

2015-03-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Tsunami Science: Ten Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami." Eight papers examine various aspects of past events with an emphasis on case and regional studies. Five papers are on tsunami warning and forecast, including the improvement of existing tsunami warning systems and the development of new warning systems in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean region. Three more papers present the results of analytical studies and discuss benchmark problems. Four papers report the impacts of tsunamis, including the detailed calculation of inundation onshore and into rivers and probabilistic analysis for engineering purposes. The final two papers relate to important investigations of the source and tsunami generation. Overall, the volume not only addresses the pivotal 2004 Indian Ocean (Sumatra) and 2011 Japan (Tohoku) tsunamis, but also examines the tsunami hazard posed to other critical coasts in the world.

Tsunami Research driven by Survivor Observations: Sumatra 2004, Tohoku 2011 and the Lituya Bay Landslide (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Hermann M.

2014-05-01

The 10th anniversary of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami recalls the advent of tsunami video recordings by eyewitnesses. The tsunami of December 26, 2004 severely affected Banda Aceh along the North tip of Sumatra (Indonesia) at a distance of 250 km from the epicenter of the Magnitude 9.0 earthquake. The tsunami flow velocity analysis focused on two survivor videos recorded within Banda Aceh more than 3km from the open ocean. The exact locations of the tsunami eyewitness video recordings were revisited to record camera calibration ground control points. The motion of the camera during the recordings was determined. The individual video images were rectified with a direct linear transformation (DLT). Finally a cross-correlation based particle image velocimetry (PIV) analysis was applied to the rectified video images to determine instantaneous tsunami flow velocity fields. The measured overland tsunami flow velocities were within the range of 2 to 5 m/s in downtown Banda Aceh, Indonesia. The March 11, 2011, magnitude Mw 9.0 earthquake off the coast of Japan caused catastrophic damage and loss of life. Fortunately many survivors at evacuation sites recorded countless tsunami videos with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage. Numerous tsunami reconnaissance trips were conducted in Japan. This report focuses on the surveys at selected tsunami eyewitness video recording locations along Japan's Sanriku coast and the subsequent tsunami video image analysis. Locations with high quality survivor videos were visited, eyewitnesses interviewed and detailed site topography scanned with a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS). The analysis of the tsunami videos followed the four step procedure developed for the analysis of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami videos at Banda Aceh. Tsunami currents up to 11 m/s were measured in Kesennuma Bay making navigation impossible. Further tsunami height and runup hydrographs are derived from the videos to discuss the complex effects of coastal structures on inundation and outflow flow velocities. Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events. On July 10, 1958, an earthquake Mw 8.3 along the Fairweather fault triggered a major subaerial landslide into Gilbert Inlet at the head of Lituya Bay on the south coast of Alaska. The landslide impacted the water at high speed generating a giant tsunami and the highest wave runup in recorded history. This event was observed by eyewitnesses on board the sole surviving fishing boat, which managed to ride the tsunami. The mega-tsunami runup to an elevation of 524 m caused total forest destruction and erosion down to bedrock on a spur ridge in direct prolongation of the slide axis. A cross-section of Gilbert Inlet was rebuilt in a two dimensional physical laboratory model. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) provided instantaneous velocity vector fields of decisive initial phase with landslide impact and wave generation as well as the runup on the headland. Three dimensional source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled in the NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU). The measured landslide and tsunami data serve to validate and advance numerical landslide tsunami models. This lecture encompasses multi-hazard aspects and implications of recent tsunami and cyclonic events around the world such as the November 2013 Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) in the Philippines.

Landslide-generated tsunamis in a perialpine lake: Historical events and numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilbe, Michael; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

2014-05-01

Many of the perialpine lakes in Central Europe - the large, glacier-carved basins formed during the Pleistocene glaciations of the Alps - have proven to be environments prone to subaquatic landsliding. Among these, Lake Lucerne (Switzerland) has a particularly well-established record of subaquatic landslides and related tsunamis. Its sedimentary archive documents numerous landslides over the entire Holocene, which have either been triggered by earthquakes, or which occurred apparently spontaneously, possibly due to rapid sediment accumulation on delta slopes. Due to their controlled boundary conditions and the possibility to be investigated on a complete basinal scale, such lacustrine tsunamis may be used as textbook analogons for their marine counterparts. Two events in the 17th century illustrate these processes and their consequences: In AD 1601, an earthquake (Mw ~ 5.9) led to widespread failure of the sediment drape covering the lateral slopes in several basins. The resulting landslides generated tsunami waves that reached a runup of several metres, as reported in historical accounts. The waves caused widespread damage as well as loss of lives in communities along the shores. In AD 1687, the apparently spontaneous collapse of a river delta in the lake led to similar waves that damaged nearby villages. Based on detailed information on topography, bathymetry and the geometry of the landslide deposits, numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for landslide propagation, as well as for tsunami generation, propagation and inundation, are able to reproduce most of the reported tsunami effects for these events. Calculated maximum runup of the waves is 6 to >10 m in the directly affected lake basins, but significantly less in neighbouring basins. Flat alluvial plains adjacent to the most heavily affected areas are inundated over distances of several hundred metres. Taken as scenarios for possible future events, these past events suggest that tsunami hazard in these lake should not be neglected, although they are infrequent and the effects are naturally limited to the immediate surroundings of the affected basins. The shores of Lake Lucerne, as well as of many other perialpine lakes, are nowadays densely inhabited and host considerable infrastructure, so that events similar to those reported may have serious consequences. Identification and mapping of possible subaquatic landslide source areas, the inclusion of geotechnical data on potentially mobile sediments, as well as numerical modelling of tsunamis are thus important components of a proper hazard assessment for these lakes.

A consistent model for tsunami actions on buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Rossetto, T.; Eames, I.; Chandler, I.; Allsop, W.

2016-12-01

The Japan (2011) and Indian Ocean (2004) tsunami resulted in significant loss of life, buildings, and critical infrastructure. The tsunami forces imposed upon structures in coastal regions are initially due to wave slamming, after which the quasi-steady flow of the sea water around buildings becomes important. An essential requirement in both design and loss assessment is a consistent model that can accurately predict these forces. A model suitable for predicting forces in the in the quasi-steady range has been established as part of a systematic programme of research by the UCL EPICentre to understand the fundamental physical processes of tsunami actions on buildings, and more generally their social and economic consequences. Using the pioneering tsunami generator at HR Wallingford, this study considers the influence of unsteady flow conditions on the forces acting upon a rectangular building occupying 10-80% of a channel for 20-240 second wave periods. A mathematical model based upon basic open-channel flow principles is proposed, which provides empirical estimates for drag and hydrostatic coefficients. A simple force prediction equation, requiring only basic flow velocity and wave height inputs is then developed, providing good agreement with the experimental results. The results of this study demonstrate that the unsteady forces from the very long waves encountered during tsunami events can be predicted with a level of accuracy and simplicity suitable for design and risk assessment.

Tsunami deposits in the Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean) and implications for hazard assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, Raphael; Wassmer, Patrick; Roger, Jean; Loevenbruck, Anne

2010-05-01

Significant earthquakes occur along the north Algerian and Carboneras faults (e.g. Djijelli 1865, Zemmouri 2003) and they may generate tsunamis in the western Mediterranean Basin and Alboran Sea, where tsunami hazard are poorly documented. The coast of southern Spain and Balearic Islands are densely populated, with touristic areas and important harbors. The 2003 event generated a small tsunami in the Balearic Islands (ships were moved by oscillations during more than 2 hours in some harbors). Reicherter et al. (2009) found evidences of two past tsunamis in lagoon of the Cabo de Gata (near Almeria), which they ascribed to the 1522 earthquake and an earlier event (< 850 BP). Field surveys along the coasts of Mallorca and Menorca islands revealed few evidences of past tsunamis. Thin sandy layers with marine bioclasts, possibly deposited by tsunamis, were found in three areas at altitudes always lower than 2m. Boulder clusters were found along the southern coast of Mallorca, but they could have been deposited by storms as well. These investigations are realized in the framework of the MAREMOTI project, funded by the French ANR and leaded by the CEA - DASE. Reicherter, K., Becker-Heidmann, P., 2009. Tsunami deposits in the western Mediterranean: remains of the 1522 Almeria earthquake? Geological Society Special Publications, London, 316, 217-235.

The El Salvador and Philippines Tsunamis of August 2012: Insights from Sea Level Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji

2014-12-01

We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August ( Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August ( Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length.

Historical tsunami in the Azores archipelago (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrade, C.; Borges, P.; Freitas, M. C.

2006-08-01

Because of its exposed northern mid-Atlantic location, morphology and plate-tectonics setting, the Azores Archipelago is highly vulnerable to tsunami hazards associated with landslides and seismic or volcanic triggers, local or distal. Critical examination of available data - written accounts and geologic evidence - indicates that, since the settlement of the archipelago in the 15th century, at least 23 tsunami have struck Azorean coastal zones. Most of the recorded tsunami are generated by earthquakes. The highest known run-up (11-15 m) was recorded on 1 November 1755 at Terceira Island, corresponding to an event of intensity VII-VIII (damaging-heavily damaging) on the Papadopolous-Imamura scale. To date, eruptive activity, while relatively frequent in the Azores, does not appear to have generated destructive tsunami. However, this apparent paucity of volcanogenic tsunami in the historical record may be misleading because of limited instrumental and documentary data, and small source-volumes released during historical eruptions. The latter are in contrast with the geological record of massive pyroclastic flows and caldera explosions with potential to generate high-magnitude tsunami, predating settlement. In addition, limited evidence suggests that submarine landslides from unstable volcano flanks may have also triggered some damaging tsunamigenic floods that perhaps were erroneously attributed to intense storms. The lack of destructive tsunami since the mid-18th century has led to governmental complacency and public disinterest in the Azores, as demonstrated by the fact that existing emergency regulations concerning seismic events in the Azores Autonomous Region make no mention of tsunami and their attendant hazards. We suspect that the coastal fringe of the Azores may well preserve a sedimentary record of some past tsunamigenic flooding events. Geological field studies must be accelerated to expand the existing database to include prehistoric events-information essential for more precisely estimating the average tsunami recurrence rate for the Azores over a longer period. A present-day occurrence of a moderate to intense tsunami (i.e., the size of the 1755 event) would produce societal disruption and economic loss orders of magnitudes greater than those of previous events in Azorean history. To reduce risk from future tsunami, comprehensive assessment of tsunami hazards and the preparation of hazards-zonation maps are needed to guide governmental decisions on issues of prudent land-use planning, public education and emergency management.

Tsunami hazard, vulnerability and impact assessment of the coastal area of Rabat, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesne, Olivia; Mangin, Antoine; Renou, Camille; Rouffi, Frédéric; Atillah, Abderrahman; Moudni, Hicham

2010-05-01

Among African countries, Morocco is probably one of the most exposed to tsunami hazard. Indeed, Morocco is integrated in the particular geodynamic context of the northern African margin characterized by the existence of the Azores-Gibraltar fault separating two active tectonic plates: the African and the Eurasian plates. This area generated and still generates many large earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 6. The Moroccan Atlantic coasts are thus exposed to tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring offshore. Tsunamis generated in this area are not frequent but can be really disastrous and could have a huge impact. In the framework of the SCHEMA project, a 3 year European project, we studied the consequences on the Moroccan coastal area of two potential tsunami scenarios, applying the generic methodology developed during the project for building tsunami vulnerability and impact maps. The study focuses on the "Rabat Zaïr" region. Centred on the Bouregreg Valley, this study area encompasses three main coastal and densely populated towns of Morocco: Rabat (capital), Salé and Temara. Using a combination of numerical modelling, field surveys, earth observation and GIS data, the risk has been evaluated for this highly vulnerable area (flat topography, small beaches with many tourists in summer, presence of several bridges on the Bouregreg river separating Rabat and Salé, presence of a dam upstream the 2 cities, and development of a new residential and touristic complex on the coastline and in the vicinity of the estuary). Two scenarios of tsunami have been studied to estimate the hazard on the coastal zone of Rabat: a worst case scenario based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 as well as a moderate scenario based on the historical Portugal earthquake of 1969. For each scenario, numerical models allowed to produce inundation maps consisting of inundation limits as well as maximum water heights. Land use data together with earth observation data interpretation allowed then to generate a building classification. Finally potential damages are derived using damage functions developed during the project by Geosciences Consultants (GSC), by crossing information from hazard maps (maximum water elevations) with building vulnerability maps. The damage maps will then serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes useful for decision makers, local authorities and investors.

The Solomon Islands Tsunami of 6 February 2013 in the Santa Cruz Islands: Field Survey and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Hermann M.; Papantoniou, Antonios; Biukoto, Litea; Albert, Gilly; Wei, Yong

2014-05-01

On February 6, 2013 at 01:12:27 UTC (local time: UTC+11), a magnitude Mw 8.0 earthquake occurred 70 km to the west of Ndendo Island (Santa Cruz Island) in the Solomon Islands. The under-thrusting earthquake near a 90° bend, where the Australian plate subducts beneath the Pacific plate generated a locally focused tsunami in the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean. The tsunami claimed the lives of 10 people and injured 15, destroyed 588 houses and partially damaged 478 houses, affecting 4,509 people in 1,066 households corresponding to an estimated 37% of the population of Santa Cruz Island. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment and coral boulder depositions, land level changes, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 19 to 23 February 2013 ITST covered 30 locations on 4 Islands: Ndendo (Santa Cruz), Tomotu Noi (Lord Howe), Nea Tomotu (Trevanion, Malo) and Tinakula. The reconnaissance completely circling Ndendo and Tinakula logged 240 km by small boat and additionally covered 20 km of Ndendo's hard hit western coastline by vehicle. The collected survey data includes more than 80 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked at Manoputi on Ndendo's densely populated west coast with maximum tsunami height exceeding 11 m and local flow depths above ground exceeding 7 m. A fast tide-like positive amplitude of 1 m was recorded at Lata wharf inside Graciosa Bay on Ndendo Island and misleadingly reported in the media as representative tsunami height. The stark contrast between the field observations on exposed coastlines and the Lata tide gauge recording highlights the importance of rapid tsunami reconnaissance surveys. Inundation distance and damage more than 500 m inland were recorded at Lata airport on Ndendo Island. Landslides were observed on volcanic Tinakula Island and on Ndendo Island. Observations from the 2013 Santa Cruz tsunami are compared against the 2007 and 2010 Solomon Islands tsunamis. The field observations in the Santa Cruz Islands present an important dataset to assess tsunami impact in the near-source region. The tsunami was also recorded at deep-ocean tsunameters and tide gauges throughout the Pacific. These observations allow us to further investigate the physics of tsunami generation caused by the seismic process (or other non-seismic mechanisms). We use numerical model MOST to analyze the large runup and complex impact distribution caused by the Santa Cruz tsunami. Source models obtained using seismic data / tsunami data are carried out to initialize the tsunami model. MOST uses two sets of numerical grids to investigate both the near- and far-field aspects of the tsunami. The basin-scale modeling results are computed using a spatial resolution of 4 arc min (approx. 7,200 m) and compared with measurements at deep-ocean tsunameters. The near-field modeling is carried out using a series of telescoped grids up to a grid resolution of tens of meters to compare with the tsunami runup and flooding extent obtained through the field survey in the Solomon Islands. The modeling results emphasize the contrast between the tsunami impact on the exposed coastline and the sheltered Lata Bay stressing the problematic interpretation of a tsunami in progress based solely on near-source tide-gauge measurements. The team also interviewed eyewitnesses and educated residents about the tsunami hazard in numerous ad hoc presentations and discussions. The combination of ancestral knowledge and recent Solomon Islands wide geohazards education programs triggered an immediate spontaneous self-evacuation containing the death toll in the small evacuation window of few minutes between the end of the ground shaking and the onslaught of the tsunami. Fortunately school children were shown a video on the 1 April 2007 Solomon Islands tsunami 3 months prior to the Santa Cruz event and the headmaster of the school at Venga evacuated the later flooded school already during a foreshock. On Tomotu Noi Island at Bamoi the residents evacuated inland towards a crocodile infested lake, which was not reached by the tsunami inundation. Community-based education and awareness programs are particularly essential to help save lives in locales at risk from near-source tsunamis.

The 15 August 2007 Peru tsunami runup observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Hermann M.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Borrero, Jose C.; Broncano, Pablo; Ortega, Erick

2008-05-01

On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts to ensure successful self-evacuation.

Historic Tsunami in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, D.; Cummins, P. R.; Burbidge, D.

2005-12-01

The 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami dramatically highlighted the need for a better understanding of the tsunami hazard in the Indian Ocean. One of the most important foundations on which to base such an assessment is knowledge of tsunami that have affected the region in the historical past. We present a summary of the previously published catalog of Indian Ocean tsunami and the results of a preliminary search of archival material held at the India Records Office at the British Library in London. We demonstrate that in some cases, normal tidal movements and floods associated with tropical cyclones have been erroneously listed as tsunami. We summarise interesting archival material for tsunami that occurred in 1945, 1941, 1881, 1819, 1762 and a tsunami in 1843 not previously identified or reported. We also note the recent discovery, by a Canadian team during a post-tsunami survey following the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, of archival evidence that the Great Sumatra Earthquake of 1833 generated a teletsunami. Open ocean wave heights are calculated for some of the historical tsunami and compared with those of the Boxing Day Tsunami.

A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan.

PubMed

Shuto, Nobuo; Fujima, Koji

2009-01-01

The tsunami science and engineering began in Japan, the country the most frequently hit by local and distant tsunamis. The gate to the tsunami science was opened in 1896 by a giant local tsunami of the highest run-up height of 38 m that claimed 22,000 lives. The crucial key was a tide record to conclude that this tsunami was generated by a "tsunami earthquake". In 1933, the same area was hit again by another giant tsunami. A total system of tsunami disaster mitigation including 10 "hard" and "soft" countermeasures was proposed. Relocation of dwelling houses to high ground was the major countermeasures. The tsunami forecasting began in 1941. In 1960, the Chilean Tsunami damaged the whole Japanese Pacific coast. The height of this tsunami was 5-6 m at most. The countermeasures were the construction of structures including the tsunami breakwater which was the first one in the world. Since the late 1970s, tsunami numerical simulation was developed in Japan and refined to become the UNESCO standard scheme that was transformed to 22 different countries. In 1983, photos and videos of a tsunami in the Japan Sea revealed many faces of tsunami such as soliton fission and edge bores. The 1993 tsunami devastated a town protected by seawalls 4.5 m high. This experience introduced again the idea of comprehensive countermeasures, consisted of defense structure, tsunami-resistant town development and evacuation based on warning.

Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank

PubMed Central

Schnyder, Jara S.D.; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kirby, James T.; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

2016-01-01

Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms−1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events. PMID:27811961

Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnyder, Jara S. D.; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kirby, James T.; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

2016-11-01

Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms-1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events.

Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank.

PubMed

Schnyder, Jara S D; Eberli, Gregor P; Kirby, James T; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

2016-11-04

Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms -1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the Colombian Caribbean Coast with a deterministic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero Diaz, L.; Correa, R.; Ortiz R, J. C.; Restrepo L, J. C.

2014-12-01

For the Caribbean Sea, we propose six potential tectonic sources of tsunami, defining for each source the worst credible earthquake from the analysis of historical seismicity, tectonics, pasts tsunami, and review of IRIS, PDE, NOAA, and CMT catalogs. The generation and propagation of tsunami waves in the selected sources were simulated with COMCOT 1.7, which is a numerical model that solves the linear and nonlinear long wave equations in finite differences in both Cartesian, and spherical coordinates. The results of the modeling are presented in maps of maximum displacement of the free surface for the Colombian Caribbean coast and the island areas, and they show that the event would produce greater impact is generated in the source of North Panama Deformed Belt (NPDB), where the first wave train reaches the central Colombian coast in 40 minutes, generating wave heights up to 3.7 m. In San Andrés and Providencia island, tsunami waves reach more than 4.5 m due effects of edge waves caused by interactions between waves and a barrier coral reef around of each island. The results obtained in this work are useful for planning systems and future regional and local warning systems and to identify priority areas to conduct detailed research to the tsunami threat.

Tsunami Waves Joint Inversion Using Tsunami Inundation, Tsunami Deposits Distribution and Marine-Terrestrial Sediment Signal in Tsunami Deposit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, H.; WANG, J.

2017-12-01

Population living close to coastlines is increasing, which creates higher risks due to coastal hazards, such as the tsunami. However, the generation of a tsunami is not fully understood yet, especially for paleo-tsunami. Tsunami deposits are one of the concrete evidence in the geological record which we can apply for studying paleo-tsunami. The understanding of tsunami deposits has significantly improved over the last decades. There are many inversion models (e.g. TsuSedMod, TSUFLIND, and TSUFLIND-EnKF) to study the overland-flow characteristics based on tsunami deposits. However, none of them tries to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave characteristics (wave form, wave height, and length) based on tsunami deposits. Here we present a state-of-the-art inverse approach to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave based on the tsunami inundation data, the spatial distribution of tsunami deposits and Marine-terrestrial sediment signal in the tsunami deposits. Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Method is used for assimilating both sediment transport simulations and the field observation data. While more computationally expensive, the EnKF approach potentially provides more accurate reconstructions for tsunami waveform. In addition to the improvement of inversion results, the ensemble-based method can also quantify the uncertainties of the results. Meanwhile, joint inversion improves the resolution of tsunami waves compared with inversions using any single data type. The method will be tested by field survey data and gauge data from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami on Sendai plain area.

Extreme Wave Deposits On The Pacific Coast Of Mexico: Tsunamis Or Storms? - A Multi-Proxy Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez Herrera, M.; Lagos, M.; Hutchinson, I.; Chague-Goff, C.; Kostoglodov, V.; Goff, J. R.; Ruiz-Fernandez, A.; Machain, M.; Caballero, M.; Goguitchaichrili, A.; Aguilar, B.; Urquijo, P.; Laboratorio Universitario de Geofísica Ambiental (Luga)

2011-12-01

Historical and instrumental data show that the Pacific coast of Mexico has been exposed to destructive tsunamis over at least the past 500 years. This coast is also affected by hurricanes generated in the eastern Pacific. The great 1985 Mexico earthquake and its aftershock generated tsunamis that affected the Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo and Michoacán coast. The purpose of our study was two-fold, a) to determine whether we could distinguish storm from tsunami deposits, and b) whether tsunami deposits from historical events are preserved in the tropical environments of the Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo coast. Two anomalous sand units in the Ixtapa estuary are interpreted as the result of high-energy marine inundation events that occurred in the last century. Several lines of evidence using a multi-proxy approach (historical studies, interviews with local witnesses, geomorphological and geological surveys, coring and trenching, and laboratory analyses including grain size, micropaleontology, geochemistry, magnetic susceptibility and radiometric dating) indicate the occurrence of two tsunamis that we link to local events: the 1985 Mexico and possibly the 1979 Petatlan earthquakes. We thereby provide the first onshore geological evidence of historical tsunamis on the Pacific coast of Mexico.

Enhancing the Contribution of the T-Stations of the IMS Hydroacoustic Network to IDC Processing and Tsunami Warning

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

Processing at the International Data Centre (IDC) classifies these signals into three types (T for underground- generated , H for in-water generated ...other hand, present the double disadvantages of a lower detection threshold for in-water propagated hydroacoustic signals and high sensitivity to the...the IMS because of their potential (deGroot-Hedlin, 2001) to detect water-borne signals from in-water explosions (H-phases) and crustal events (T

A Study of the Effects of Seafloor Topography on Tsunami Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohata, T.; Mikada, H.; Goto, T.; Takekawa, J.

2011-12-01

For tsunami disaster mitigation, we consider the phenomena related to tsunami in terms of the generation, propagation, and run-up to the coast. With consideration for these three phenomena, we have to consider tsunami propagation to predict the arrival time and the run-up height of tsunami. Numerical simulations of tsunami that propagates from the source location to the coast have been widely used to estimate these important parameters. When a tsunami propagates, however, reflected and scattered waves arrive as later phases of tsunami. These waves are generated by the changes of water depth, and could influence the height estimation, especially in later phases. The maximum height of tsunami could be observed not as the first arrivals but as the later phases, therefore it is necessary to consider the effects of the seafloor topography on tsunami propagation. Since many simulations, however, mainly focus on the prediction of the first arrival times and the initial height of tsunami, it is difficult to simulate the later phases that are important for the tsunami disaster mitigation in the conventional methods. In this study, we investigate the effects of the seafloor topography on tsunami propagation after accommodating a tsunami simulation to the superposition of reflected and refracted waves caused by the smooth changes of water depths. Developing the new numerical code, we consider how the effects of the sea floor topography affect on the tsunami propagation, comparing with the tsunami simulated by the conventional method based on the liner long wave theory. Our simulation employs the three dimensional in-equally spaced grids in finite difference method (FDM) to introduce the real seafloor topography. In the simulation, we import the seafloor topography from the real bathymetry data near the Sendai-Bay, off the northeast Tohoku region, Japan, and simulate the tsunami propagation over the varying seafloor topography there. Comparing with the tsunami simulated by the conventional method based on the liner long wave theory, we found that the amplitudes of tsunamis are different from each other for the two simulations. The degree of the amplification of the height of tsunami in our method is larger than that in the conventional one. The height of the later phases of the tsunamis shows the discrepancy between the two results. We would like to conclude that the real changes of water depth affect the prediction of tsunami propagation and the maximum height. Because of the effects of the seafloor topography, the amplitude of the later phases is sometimes larger than the former ones. Due to the inclusion of such effects by the real topography, we believe our method lead to a higher accuracy of prediction of tsunami later phases, which would be effective for tsunami disaster mitigation.

The GNSS-based Ground Tracking System (GTS) of GFZ; from GITEWS to PROTECTS and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falck, Carsten; Merx, Alexander; Ramatschi, Markus

2013-04-01

Introduction An automatic system for the near real-time determination and visualization of ground motions, respectively co-seismic deformations of the Earth's surface, was developed by GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences) within the project GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System). The system is capable to deliver 3D-displacement vectors for locations with appropriate GPS-equipment in the vicinity of an earthquake's epicenter with a delay of only a few minutes. These vectors can help to assess the earthquake causing tectonic movements, which must be known to make reliable early warning predictions, e.g., concerning the generation of tsunami waves. The GTS (Ground Tracking System) has been integrated into InaTEWS (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) and is in operation at the national warning center in Jakarta since November 2008. After the end of the project GITEWS GFZ continues to support the GTS in Indonesia within the frame of PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning Systems) and recently some new developments have been introduced. We now aim to make further use of the achievements made, e.g., by developing a license model for the GTS software package. Motivation After the Tsunami of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project to develop the main components for a tsunami early warning system in Indonesia. The GFZ, as the consortial leader of GITEWS, had several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component, which since then is known as the GTS (Ground Tracking System). System benefit The ground motion information delivered by the GTS is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism with a high relevance to assess the probability and magnitude of a potentially following tsunami. The system may detect highest displacement vector values, where seismic systems may tend to have problems with the determination of earthquake magnitudes, e.g. close to an earthquake epicenter. By considering displacement vectors the GTS may significantly support the decision finding process whether a tsunami has been generated. Brief system description The GTS may be divided into three main components: 1) The data acquisition component receives and manages data from GNSS-stations being transferred either in real-time, file based or both in parallel, including, e.g., format conversions and real-time spreading to other services. It also acquires the most actual auxiliary data needed for data processing, e.g., GNSS-satellite orbit data or, in case of internet problems, generates them from ephemeris broadcast transmissions, received by the connected GNSS-network stations. 2) The automatic GNSS-data processing unit calculates coordinate time series for all GNSS-stations providing data. The processing kernel is the robust working and well supported »Bernese GPS Software«, but wrapped into adaptations for a fully automatic near real-time processing. The final products of this unit are 3D-displacement vectors, which are calculated as differences to the mean coordinates of the latest timespan prior to an earthquake. 3) The graphical user interface (GUI) of the GTS supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by experts. The states of the connected GNSS-networks and of the automatic data processing system are displayed. Other views are available, e.g., to check intermediate processing steps or historic data. The GTS final products, the 3D-displacement vectors, are displayed as arrows and bars on a map view. The GUI system is implemented as a web-based application and allows all views to be displayed on many screens at the same time, even at remote locations. Acknowledgements The projects GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) and PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning System) are carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01 and 03TSU07.

Peru 2007 tsunami runup observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Borrero, J. C.

2008-05-01

On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed in the immediate aftermath and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. The largest runup heights were measured in a sparsely populated desert area south of the Paracas Peninsula resulting in only 3 tsunami fatalities. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the presence of the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts in the region. The Peru tsunami is compared against recent mega-disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and Hurricane Katrina.

Field Survey of the 17 June 2017 Landslide and Tsunami in Karrat Fjord, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Giachetti, T.; Anderson, S.; Gauthier, D.

2017-12-01

On 17 June 2017 a massive landslide generated tsunami impacted Karrat Fjord and the Uummannaq fjord system located some 280 km north of Ilulissat in western Greenland. The eastern of two easily recognized landslides detached completely and fell approximately 1 km to sea level, before plunging into the Karrat Fjord and generating a tsunami within the fjord system. The landslide generated tsunami washed 4 victims and several houses into the fjord at Nuugaatsiaq, about 30 km west of the landslide. Eyewitnesses at Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit recorded the tsunami inundation on videos. The active western landslide features a back scarp and large cracks, and therefore remains a threat in Karrat Fjord. The villages of Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit remain evacuated. The Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER) survey team deployed to Greenland from July 6 to 9, 2017. The reconnaissance on July 8 involved approximately 800 km of helicopter flight and landings in several key locations. The survey focused on the landslides and coastlines within 30 km of the landslide in either fjord direction. The aerial reconnaissance collected high quality oblique aerial photogrammetry (OAP) of the landslide, scarp, and debris avalanche track. The 3D model of the landslide provides the ability to study the morphology of the slope on July 8, it provides a baseline model for future surveys, and it can be used to compare to earlier imagery to estimate what happened on June 17. Change detection using prior satellite imagery indicates an approximate 55 million m3 total landslide volume of which 45 million m3 plunged into the fjord from elevations up to 1200 m above the water surface. The ground based tsunami survey documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure, and impact on the natural and glacial environment. Perishable high-water marks include changes in vegetation and damage to roots, deposits and scour of soil and rock, stranded icebergs, as well as damage to homes and infrastructure. The tsunami runup heights exceeded 90 m laterally to the west of the landslide and 50 m across the 6 km wide fjord. The Greenland landslide generated tsunami highlights coastal hazards to communities not commonly exposed to earthquake generated tsunamis.

Impact Tsunami Calculations: Hydrodynamical Simulations vs. Linear Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korycansky, E.; Asphaug, E.; Ward, S. N.

2003-01-01

Tsunamis generated by the impacts of asteroids and comets into the Earth oceans are widely recognized as a potential catastrophic hazard to the Earth s population. Our general conclusion is that linear theory is a reasonably accurate guide to behavior of tsunamis generated by impactors of moderate size, where the initial transient impact cavity is of moderate depth compared to the ocean depth. This is particularly the case for long wavelength waves that propagate fastest and would reach coastlines first. Such tsunamis would be generated in the open ocean by impactors of 300 meters in diameter, which might be expected to strike the Earth once every few thousand years, on the average. Larger impactors produce cavities deep enough to reach the ocean floor; even here, linear theory is applicable if the starting point is chosen at a later phase in the calculation when the impact crater has slumped back to produce a cavity of moderate depth and slope.

Suspected Offshore Chalcolithic/Early Bronze Age Tsunamigenic Sediments: Jisr al Zarka, Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiulienieva, N.; Braun, Y.; Katz, T.; Goodman-Tchernov, B. N.; Suchkov, I.

2017-12-01

Offshore tsunami deposits are a potentially important sedimentological archive for past tsunamis. They have been identified offshore of Israel using granulometric, geoarchaeological, and micropaleontological indicators. Recent advances in tsunami sedimentological research have put forth a series of new proxies that may be useful tools for tsunami deposit identification. The well-studied offshore deposits of Israel provide a unique opportunity to test some of these proxies because they present good distinction between tsunami and non-tsunami deposits and they can be associated with a rich historical record and archaeological artifacts. In this study, a 219 cm long sediment core, retrieved from a 15.3 m water depth, situated in about 5 km to the north from well studied shallow shelf, offshore Caesarea. Based on the previously used criteria three layers in the new core were identified as tsunami-generated. Two of these correlated to previously described tsunami events in Caesarea; 749 AD and 1500 BC. The third layer gave the time frame from 5.6 to 6 ka BP, making this event the oldest identified in the Eastern Mediterranean to date. Identified unusual layers were attributed to tsunami-generated sedimentary sequences, based on both visually recognizable indicators and the results of laboratory analyses. FT-IR, XRD, and XRF analysis were also applied. The results of this study allow to make following conclusions: (1) visual tsunami indicators in the studied core are similar to those in Caesarea, but lack archaeological debris; (2) while distinct deviation of granulometric coefficients (mean, median, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis) correlated to tsunami layers, the additional proxies of deposition rate and mollusk assemblage excluded one deviated layer from tsunamigenic-designation; (3) the results of XRF, FT-IR, XRD showed that they are not useful as independent methods at this study site.

Recent Findings on Tsunami Hazards in the Makran Subduction Zone, NW Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, M.; Satake, K.

2014-12-01

We present recent findings on tsunami hazards in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ), NW Indian Ocean, based on the results of tsunami source analyses for two Makran tsunamis of 1945 and 2013. A re-analysis of the source of the 27 November 1945 tsunami in the MSZ showed that the slip needs to be extended to deep waters around the depth contour of 3000 m in order to reproduce the observed tide gauge waveforms at Karachi and Mumbai. On the other hand, coastal uplift report at Ormara (Pakistan) implies that the source fault needs to be extended inland. In comparison to other existing fault models, our fault model is longer and includes a heterogeneous slip with larger maximum slip. The recent tsunami on 24 September 2013 in the Makran region was triggered by an inland Mw 7.7 earthquake. While the main shock and all aftershocks were located inland, a tsunami with a dominant period of around 12 min was recorded on tide gauges and a DART station. We examined different possible sources for this tsunami including a mud volcano, a mud/shale diapir, and a landslide/slump through numerical modeling. Only a submarine slump with a source dimension of 10-15 km and a thickness of around 100 m, located 60-70 km offshore Jiwani (Pakistan) at the water depth of around 2000m, was able to reasonably reproduce the observed tsunami waveforms. In terms of tsunami hazards, analyses of the two tsunamis provide new insights: 1) large runup heights can be generated in the coastal areas due to slip in deep waters, and 2) even an inland earthquake may generate tsunamigenic submarine landslides.

Earthquake-triggered landslides along the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (off Augusta, eastern Sicily, Italy) - assessment of the related tsunamigenic potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

2017-02-01

Eastern Sicily is affected by earthquakes and tsunamis of local and remote origin, which is known through numerous historical chronicles. Recent studies have put emphasis on the role of submarine landslides as the direct cause of the main local tsunamis, envisaging that earthquakes (in 1693 and 1908) did produce a tsunami, but also that they triggered mass failures that were able to generate an even larger tsunami. The debate is still open, and though no general consensus has been found among scientists so far, this research had the merit to attract attention on possible generation of tsunamis by landslides off Sicily. In this paper we investigate the tsunami potential of mass failures along one sector of the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (HME). facing Augusta. The HME is the main offshore geological structure of the region running almost parallel to the coast, off eastern Sicily. Here, bottom morphology and slope steepness favour soil failures. In our work we study slope stability under seismic load along a number of HME transects by using the Minimun Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method, which is based on the limit-equilibrium theory. The main goal is to identify sectors of the HME that could be unstable under the effect of realistic earthquakes. We estimate the possible landslide volume and use it as input for numerical codes to simulate the landslide motion and the consequent tsunami. This is an important step for the assessment of the tsunami hazard in eastern Sicily and for local tsunami mitigation policies. It is also important in view of tsunami warning system since it can help to identify the minimum earthquake magnitude capable of triggering destructive tsunamis induced by landslides, and therefore to set up appropriate knowledge-based criteria to launch alert to the population.

Proposal of a method for evaluating tsunami risk using response-surface methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukutani, Y.

2017-12-01

Information on probabilistic tsunami inundation hazards is needed to define and evaluate tsunami risk. Several methods for calculating these hazards have been proposed (e.g. Løvholt et al. (2012), Thio (2012), Fukutani et al. (2014), Goda et al. (2015)). However, these methods are inefficient, and their calculation cost is high, since they require multiple tsunami numerical simulations, therefore lacking versatility. In this study, we proposed a simpler method for tsunami risk evaluation using response-surface methodology. Kotani et al. (2016) proposed an evaluation method for the probabilistic distribution of tsunami wave-height using a response-surface methodology. We expanded their study and developed a probabilistic distribution of tsunami inundation depth. We set the depth (x1) and the slip (x2) of an earthquake fault as explanatory variables and tsunami inundation depth (y) as an object variable. Subsequently, tsunami risk could be evaluated by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming that the generation probability of an earthquake follows a Poisson distribution, the probability distribution of tsunami inundation depth follows the distribution derived from a response-surface, and the damage probability of a target follows a log normal distribution. We applied the proposed method to a wood building located on the coast of Tokyo Bay. We implemented a regression analysis based on the results of 25 tsunami numerical calculations and developed a response-surface, which was defined as y=ax1+bx2+c (a:0.2615, b:3.1763, c=-1.1802). We assumed proper probabilistic distribution for earthquake generation, inundation height, and vulnerability. Based on these probabilistic distributions, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 years. We clarified that the expected damage probability of the studied wood building is 22.5%, assuming that an earthquake occurs. The proposed method is therefore a useful and simple way to evaluate tsunami risk using a response-surface and Monte Carlo simulation without conducting multiple tsunami numerical simulations.

Numerical Simulations of the 1991 Limón Tsunami, Costa Rica Caribbean Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; Zamora, Natalia

2017-08-01

The second largest recorded tsunami along the Caribbean margin of Central America occurred 25 years ago. On April 22nd, 1991, an earthquake with magnitude Mw 7.6 ruptured along the thrust faults that form the North Panamá Deformed Belt (NPDB). The earthquake triggered a tsunami that affected the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and Panamá within few minutes, generating two casualties. These are the only deaths caused by a tsunami in Costa Rica. Coseismic uplift up to 1.6 m and runup values larger than 2 m were measured along some coastal sites. Here, we consider three solutions for the seismic source as initial conditions to model the tsunami, each considering a single rupture plane. We performed numerical modeling of the tsunami propagation and runup using NEOWAVE numerical model (Yamazaki et al. in Int J Numer Methods Fluids 67:2081-2107, 2010, doi: 10.1002/fld.2485 ) on a system of nested grids from the entire Caribbean Sea to Limón city. The modeled surface deformation and tsunami runup agreed with the measured data along most of the coastal sites with one preferred model that fits the field data. The model results are useful to determine how the 1991 tsunami could have affected regions where tsunami records were not preserved and to simulate the effects of the coastal surface deformations as buffer to tsunami. We also performed tsunami modeling to simulate the consequences if a similar event with larger magnitude Mw 7.9 occurs offshore the southern Costa Rican Caribbean coast. Such event would generate maximum wave heights of more than 5 m showing that Limón and northwestern Panamá coastal areas are exposed to moderate-to-large tsunamis. These simulations considering historical events and maximum credible scenarios can be useful for hazard assessment and also as part of studies leading to tsunami evacuation maps and mitigation plans, even when that is not the scope of this paper.

The November 15, 2006 Kuril Islands-Generated Tsunami in Crescent City, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Yim, S. C.; Kelly, A.

2009-02-01

On November 15, 2006, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a tsunami generated by a M w 8.3 earthquake in the central Kuril Islands. Strong currents that persisted over an eight-hour period damaged floating docks and several boats and caused an estimated 9.2 million in losses. Initial tsunami alert bulletins issued by the West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska were cancelled about three and a half hours after the earthquake, nearly five hours before the first surges reached Crescent City. The largest amplitude wave, 1.76-meter peak to trough, was the sixth cycle and arrived over two hours after the first wave. Strong currents estimated at over 10 knots, damaged or destroyed three docks and caused cracks in most of the remaining docks. As a result of the November 15 event, WCATWC changed the definition of Advisory from a region-wide alert bulletin meaning that a potential tsunami is 6 hours or further away to a localized alert that tsunami water heights may approach warning- level thresholds in specific, vulnerable locations like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 a similar Kuril event occurred and hourly conferences between the warning center and regional weather forecasts were held with a considerable improvement in the flow of information to local coastal jurisdictions. The event highlighted the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami and underscored the need to improve public education regarding the duration of the tsunami hazards, improve dialog between tsunami warning centers and local jurisdictions, and better understand the currents produced by tsunamis in harbors.

TIDE TOOL: Open-Source Sea-Level Monitoring Software for Tsunami Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, S. A.; Kong, L. S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.

2012-12-01

A tsunami warning center (TWC) typically decides to issue a tsunami warning bulletin when initial estimates of earthquake source parameters suggest it may be capable of generating a tsunami. A TWC, however, relies on sea-level data to provide prima facie evidence for the existence or non-existence of destructive tsunami waves and to constrain tsunami wave height forecast models. In the aftermath of the 2004 Sumatra disaster, the International Tsunami Information Center asked the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) to develop a platform-independent, easy-to-use software package to give nascent TWCs the ability to process WMO Global Telecommunications System (GTS) sea-level messages and to analyze the resulting sea-level curves (marigrams). In response PTWC developed TIDE TOOL that has since steadily grown in sophistication to become PTWC's operational sea-level processing system. TIDE TOOL has two main parts: a decoder that reads GTS sea-level message logs, and a graphical user interface (GUI) written in the open-source platform-independent graphical toolkit scripting language Tcl/Tk. This GUI consists of dynamic map-based clients that allow the user to select and analyze a single station or groups of stations by displaying their marigams in strip-chart or screen-tiled forms. TIDE TOOL also includes detail maps of each station to show each station's geographical context and reverse tsunami travel time contours to each station. TIDE TOOL can also be coupled to the GEOWARE™ TTT program to plot tsunami travel times and to indicate the expected tsunami arrival time on the marigrams. Because sea-level messages are structured in a rich variety of formats TIDE TOOL includes a metadata file, COMP_META, that contains all of the information needed by TIDE TOOL to decode sea-level data as well as basic information such as the geographical coordinates of each station. TIDE TOOL can therefore continuously decode theses sea-level messages in real-time and display the time-series data in the GUI as well. This GUI also includes mouse-clickable functions such as zooming or expanding the time-series display, measuring tsunami signal characteristics (arrival time, wave period and amplitude, etc.), and removing the tide signal from the time-series data. De-tiding of the time series is necessary to obtain accurate measurements of tsunami wave parameters and to maintain accurate historical tsunami databases. With TIDE TOOL, de-tiding is accomplished with a set of tide harmonic coefficients routinely computed and updated at PTWC for many of the stations in PTWC's inventory (~570). PTWC also uses the decoded time series files (previous 3-5 days' worth) to compute on-the-fly tide coefficients. The latter is useful in cases where the station is new and a long-term stable set of tide coefficients are not available or cannot be easily obtained due to various non-astronomical effects. The international tsunami warning system is coordinated globally by the UNESCO IOC, and a number of countries in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, and Caribbean depend on Tide Tool to monitor tsunamis in real time.

New Insights on Tsunami Genesis and Energy Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Y. T.; Mohtat, A.; Yim, S. C.

2017-12-01

Conventional tsunami theories suggest that earthquakes with significant vertical motions are more likely to generate tsunamis. In tsunami models, the vertical seafloor elevation is directly transferred to the sea-surface as the only initial condition. However, evidence from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake indicates otherwise; the vertical seafloor uplift was only 3 5 meters, too small to account for the resultant tsunami. Surprisingly, the horizontal displacement was undeniably larger than anyone's expectation; about 60 meters at the frontal wedge of the fault plate, the largest slip ever recorded by in-situ instruments. The question is whether the horizontal motion of seafloor slopes had enhanced the tsunami to become as destructive as observed. In this study, we provide proof: (1) Combining various measurements from the 2011 Tohoku event, we show that the earthquake transferred a total energy of 3.1e+15 joule to the ocean, in which the potential energy (PE) due to the vertical seafloor elevation (including seafloor uplift/subsidence plus the contribution from the horizontal displacement) was less than a half, while the kinetic energy (KE) due to the horizontal displacement velocity of the continental slope contributed a majority portion; (2) Using two modern state-of-the-art wave flumes and a three-dimensional tsunami model, we have reproduced the source energy and tsunamis consistent with observations, including the 2004 Sumatra event. Based on the unified source energy formulation, we offer a competing theory to explain why some earthquakes generate destructive tsunamis, while others do not.

Tsunamigenic potential of a newly discovered active fault zone in the outer Messina Strait, Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Lili; Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Cukur, Deniz; Chiocci, Francesco L.; Ridente, Domenico; Gross, Felix; Bialas, Jörg; Krastel, Sebastian

2017-03-01

The 1908 Messina tsunami was the most catastrophic tsunami hitting the coastline of Southern Italy in the younger past. The source of this tsunami, however, is still heavily debated, and both rupture along a fault and a slope failure have been postulated as potential origin of the tsunami. Here we report a newly discovered active Fiumefreddo-Melito di Porto Salvo Fault Zone (F-MPS_FZ), which is located in the outer Messina Strait in a proposed landslide source area of the 1908 Messina tsunami. Tsunami modeling showed that this fault zone would produce devastating tsunamis by assuming slip amounts of ≥5 m. An assumed slip of up to 17 m could even generate a tsunami comparable to the 1908 Messina tsunami, but we do not consider the F-MPS_FZ as a source for the 1908 Messina tsunami because its E-W strike contradicts seismological observations of the 1908 Messina earthquake. Future researches on the F-MPS_FZ, however, may contribute to the tsunami risk assessment in the Messina Strait.

Physical experiments and analysis on the generation and evolution of tsunami-induced turbulent coherent structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalligeris, Nikos; Lynett, Patrick

2017-11-01

Numerous historical accounts describe the formation of ``whirpools'' inside ports and harbors during tsunami events, causing port operation disruptions. Videos from the Japan 2011 tsunami revealed complex nearshore flow patters, resulting from the interaction of tsunami-induced currents with the man-made coastline, and the generation of large eddies (or turbulent coherent structures) in numerous ports and harbors near the earthquake epicenter. The aim of this work is to study the generation and evolution of tsunami-induced turbulent coherent structures (TCS) in a well-controlled environment using realistic scaling. A physical configuration is created in the image of a port entrance at a scale of 1:27 and a small-amplitude, long period wave creates a transient flow through the asymmetric harbor channel. A separated region forms, which coupled with the transient flow, leads to the formation of a stable monopolar TCS. The surface flow is examined through mono- and stereo-PTV techniques to extract surface velocity vectors. Surface velocity maps and vortex flow profiles are used to study the experimental TCS generation and evolution, and characterize the TCS structure. Analytical tools are used to describe the TCS growth rate and kinetic energy decay. This work was funded by the National Science Foundation NEES Research program, with Award Number 1135026.

Scale/TSUNAMI Sensitivity Data for ICSBEP Evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rearden, Bradley T; Reed, Davis Allan; Lefebvre, Robert A

2011-01-01

The Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) software developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the Scale code system provide unique methods for code validation, gap analysis, and experiment design. For TSUNAMI analysis, sensitivity data are generated for each application and each existing or proposed experiment used in the assessment. The validation of diverse sets of applications requires potentially thousands of data files to be maintained and organized by the user, and a growing number of these files are available through the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (IHECSBE) distributed through themore » International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Program (ICSBEP). To facilitate the use of the IHECSBE benchmarks in rigorous TSUNAMI validation and gap analysis techniques, ORNL generated SCALE/TSUNAMI sensitivity data files (SDFs) for several hundred benchmarks for distribution with the IHECSBE. For the 2010 edition of IHECSBE, the sensitivity data were generated using 238-group cross-section data based on ENDF/B-VII.0 for 494 benchmark experiments. Additionally, ORNL has developed a quality assurance procedure to guide the generation of Scale inputs and sensitivity data, as well as a graphical user interface to facilitate the use of sensitivity data in identifying experiments and applying them in validation studies.« less

Tsunami Source Identification on the 1867 Tsunami Event Based on the Impact Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, T. R.

2014-12-01

The 1867 Keelung tsunami event has drawn significant attention from people in Taiwan. Not only because the location was very close to the 3 nuclear power plants which are only about 20km away from the Taipei city but also because of the ambiguous on the tsunami sources. This event is unique in terms of many aspects. First, it was documented on many literatures with many languages and with similar descriptions. Second, the tsunami deposit was discovered recently. Based on the literatures, earthquake, 7-meter tsunami height, volcanic smoke, and oceanic smoke were observed. Previous studies concluded that this tsunami was generated by an earthquake with a magnitude around Mw7.0 along the Shanchiao Fault. However, numerical results showed that even a Mw 8.0 earthquake was not able to generate a 7-meter tsunami. Considering the steep bathymetry and intense volcanic activities along the Keelung coast, one reasonable hypothesis is that different types of tsunami sources were existed, such as the submarine landslide or volcanic eruption. In order to confirm this scenario, last year we proposed the Tsunami Reverse Tracing Method (TRTM) to find the possible locations of the tsunami sources. This method helped us ruling out the impossible far-field tsunami sources. However, the near-field sources are still remain unclear. This year, we further developed a new method named 'Impact Intensity Analysis' (IIA). In the IIA method, the study area is divided into a sequence of tsunami sources, and the numerical simulations of each source is conducted by COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model) tsunami model. After that, the resulting wave height from each source to the study site is collected and plotted. This method successfully helped us to identify the impact factor from the near-field potential sources. The IIA result (Fig. 1) shows that the 1867 tsunami event was a multi-source event. A mild tsunami was trigged by a Mw7.0 earthquake, and then followed by the submarine landslide or volcanic events. A near-field submarine landslide and landslide at Mien-Hwa Canyon were the most possible scenarios. As for the volcano scenarios, the volcanic eruption located about 10 km away from Keelung with 2.5x108 m3 disturbed water volume might be a candidate. The detailed scenario results will be presented in the full paper.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes thousands of earthquake scenarios. We have carried out preliminary tsunami hazard calculations for different return periods for western North America and Hawaii based on thousands of earthquake scenarios around the Pacific rim and along the coast of North America. We will present tsunami hazard maps for several return periods and also discuss how to use these results for probabilistic inundation and runup mapping. Our knowledge of certain types of tsunami sources is very limited (e.g. submarine landslides), but a probabilistic framework for tsunami hazard evaluation can include even such sources and their uncertainties and present the overall hazard in a meaningful and consistent way.

Lessons for tsunami risk mitigation from recent events occured in Chile: research findings for alerting and evacuation from interdisciplinary perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cienfuegos, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Leon, J.; Gonzalez, G.; Repetto, P.; Urrutia, A.; Tomita, T.; Orellana, V.

2016-12-01

In the wake of the 2010 tsunami that hit Chile, a major public effort to promote interdisciplinary disaster reseach was undertaken by the Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica (Conicyt) allocating funds to create the Center for Integrated Research on Natural Risks Management (CIGIDEN). This effort has been key in promoting associativity between national and international research teams in order to transform the frequent occurrence of extreme events that affect Chile into an opportunity for interdisciplinary research. In this presentation we will summarize some of the fundamental research findings regarding tsunami forecasting, alerting, and evacuation processes based on interdisciplinary field work campaigns and modeling efforts conducted in the wake of the three most recent destructive events that hit Chile in 2010, 2014, and 2015. One of the main results that we shall emphatize from these findings, is that while research and operational efforts to model and forecast tsunamis are important, technological positivisms should not undermine educational efforts that have proved to be effective in reducing casualties due to tsunamis in the near field. Indeed, in recent events that hit Chile, first tsunami waves reached the adjacent generation zones in time scales comparable with the required time for data gathering and modeling even for the most sophisticated early warning tsunami algorithms currently available. The latter emphasizes self-evacuation from coastal areas, while forecasting and monitoring tsunami hazards remain very important for alerting more distant areas, and are essential for alert cancelling especially when shelf and embayment resonance, and edge wave propagation may produce destructive late tsunami arrivals several hours after the nucleation of the earthquake. By combining some of the recent evidence we have gathered in Chile on seismic source uncertainities (both epistemic and aleatoric), tsunami hydrodynamics, the response of official national institutions in charge of emergency management, and the evacuation processess observed, we will attempt to bring some elements for discussing on the complex balance between technological positivism and risk awareness and education programs that may help prioritizing funding efforts in tsunami prone regions.

Unusually large earthquakes inferred from tsunami deposits along the Kuril trench

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nanayama, F.; Satake, K.; Furukawa, R.; Shimokawa, K.; Atwater, B.F.; Shigeno, K.; Yamaki, S.

2003-01-01

The Pacific plate converges with northeastern Eurasia at a rate of 8-9 m per century along the Kamchatka, Kuril and Japan trenches. Along the southern Kuril trench, which faces the Japanese island of Hokkaido, this fast subduction has recurrently generated earthquakes with magnitudes of up to ???8 over the past two centuries. These historical events, on rupture segments 100-200 km long, have been considered characteristic of Hokkaido's plate-boundary earthquakes. But here we use deposits of prehistoric tsunamis to infer the infrequent occurrence of larger earthquakes generated from longer ruptures. Many of these tsunami deposits form sheets of sand that extend kilometres inland from the deposits of historical tsunamis. Stratigraphic series of extensive sand sheets, intercalated with dated volcanic-ash layers, show that such unusually large tsunamis occurred about every 500 years on average over the past 2,000-7,000 years, most recently ???350 years ago. Numerical simulations of these tsunamis are best explained by earthquakes that individually rupture multiple segments along the southern Kuril trench. We infer that such multi-segment earthquakes persistently recur among a larger number of single-segment events.

Local tsunamis and earthquake source parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Dmowska, Renata; Saltzman, Barry

1999-01-01

This chapter establishes the relationship among earthquake source parameters and the generation, propagation, and run-up of local tsunamis. In general terms, displacement of the seafloor during the earthquake rupture is modeled using the elastic dislocation theory for which the displacement field is dependent on the slip distribution, fault geometry, and the elastic response and properties of the medium. Specifically, nonlinear long-wave theory governs the propagation and run-up of tsunamis. A parametric study is devised to examine the relative importance of individual earthquake source parameters on local tsunamis, because the physics that describes tsunamis from generation through run-up is complex. Analysis of the source parameters of various tsunamigenic earthquakes have indicated that the details of the earthquake source, namely, nonuniform distribution of slip along the fault plane, have a significant effect on the local tsunami run-up. Numerical methods have been developed to address the realistic bathymetric and shoreline conditions. The accuracy of determining the run-up on shore is directly dependent on the source parameters of the earthquake, which provide the initial conditions used for the hydrodynamic models.

A Possible Source Mechanism of the 1946 Unimak Alaska Far-Field Tsunami: Uplift of the Mid-Slope Terrace Above a Splay Fault Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Huene, Roland; Miller, John J.; Klaeschen, Dirk; Dartnell, Peter

2016-12-01

In 1946, megathrust seismicity along the Unimak segment of the Alaska subduction zone generated the largest ever recorded Alaska/Aleutian tsunami. The tsunami severely damaged Pacific islands and coastal areas from Alaska to Antarctica. It is the charter member of "tsunami" earthquakes that produce outsized far-field tsunamis for the recorded magnitude. Its source mechanisms were unconstrained by observations because geophysical data for the Unimak segment were sparse and of low resolution. Reprocessing of legacy geophysical data reveals a deep water, high-angle reverse or splay thrust fault zone that leads megathrust slip upward to the mid-slope terrace seafloor rather than along the plate boundary toward the trench axis. Splay fault uplift elevates the outer mid-slope terrace and its inner area subsides. Multibeam bathymetry along the splay fault zone shows recent but undated seafloor disruption. The structural configuration of the nearby Semidi segment is similar to that of the Unimak segment, portending generation of a future large tsunami directed toward the US West coast.

Chapter 3 – Phenomenology of Tsunamis: Statistical Properties from Generation to Runup

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2015-01-01

Observations related to tsunami generation, propagation, and runup are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. In the three coastal regimes considered (near-field broadside, near-field oblique, and far field), the observed maximum wave amplitude is associated with different parts of the tsunami wavefield. The maximum amplitude in the near-field broadside regime is most often associated with the direct arrival from the source, whereas in the near-field oblique regime, the maximum amplitude is most often associated with the propagation of edge waves. In the far field, the maximum amplitude is most often caused by the interaction of the tsunami coda that develops during basin-wide propagation and the nearshore response, including the excitation of edge waves, shelf modes, and resonance. Statistical distributions that describe tsunami observations are also reviewed, both in terms of spatial distributions, such as coseismic slip on the fault plane and near-field runup, and temporal distributions, such as wave amplitudes in the far field. In each case, fundamental theories of tsunami physics are heuristically used to explain the observations.

A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan

PubMed Central

Shuto, Nobuo; Fujima, Koji

2009-01-01

The tsunami science and engineering began in Japan, the country the most frequently hit by local and distant tsunamis. The gate to the tsunami science was opened in 1896 by a giant local tsunami of the highest run-up height of 38 m that claimed 22,000 lives. The crucial key was a tide record to conclude that this tsunami was generated by a “tsunami earthquake”. In 1933, the same area was hit again by another giant tsunami. A total system of tsunami disaster mitigation including 10 “hard” and “soft” countermeasures was proposed. Relocation of dwelling houses to high ground was the major countermeasures. The tsunami forecasting began in 1941. In 1960, the Chilean Tsunami damaged the whole Japanese Pacific coast. The height of this tsunami was 5–6 m at most. The countermeasures were the construction of structures including the tsunami breakwater which was the first one in the world. Since the late 1970s, tsunami numerical simulation was developed in Japan and refined to become the UNESCO standard scheme that was transformed to 22 different countries. In 1983, photos and videos of a tsunami in the Japan Sea revealed many faces of tsunami such as soliton fission and edge bores. The 1993 tsunami devastated a town protected by seawalls 4.5 m high. This experience introduced again the idea of comprehensive countermeasures, consisted of defense structure, tsunami-resistant town development and evacuation based on warning. PMID:19838008

Case study: Mapping tsunami hazards associated with debris flow into a reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Watts, P.; Waythomas, C.F.

2006-01-01

Debris-flow generated impulse waves (tsunamis) pose hazards in lakes, especially those used for hydropower or recreation. We describe a method for assessing tsunami-related hazards for the case in which inundation by coherent water waves, rather than chaotic splashing, is of primary concern. The method involves an experimentally based initial condition (tsunami source) and a Boussinesq model for tsunami propagation and inundation. Model results are used to create hazard maps that offer guidance for emergency planners and responders. An example application explores tsunami hazards associated with potential debris flows entering Baker Lake, a reservoir on the flanks of the Mount Baker volcano in the northwestern United States. ?? 2006 ASCE.

Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

PubMed

Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

2017-01-18

Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (<2 h) may substantially contribute to global sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

PubMed Central

Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

2017-01-01

Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (<2 h) may substantially contribute to global sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates. PMID:28098195

How to learn and develop from both good and bad lessons- the 2011Tohoku tsunami case -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, Megumi; Okazumi, Toshio

2013-04-01

The 2011 Tohoku tsunami revealed Japan has repeated same mistakes in a long tsunami disaster history. After the disaster Japanese remember many old lessons and materials: an oral traditional evacuation method 'Tsunami TENDENKO' which is individual independent quick evacuation, a tsunami historical memorial stone "Don't construct houses below this stone to seaside" in Aneyoshi town Iwate prefecture, Namiwake-shrine naming from the story of protect people from tsunami in Sendai city, and so on. Tohoku area has created various tsunami historical cultures to descendent. Tohoku area had not had a tsunami disaster for 50 years after the 1960 Chilean tsunami. The 2010 Chilean tsunami damaged little fish industry. People gradually lost tsunami disaster awareness. At just the bad time the magnitude (M) 9 scale earthquake attacked Tohoku. It was for our generations an inexperienced scale disaster. People did not make use of the ancestor's lessons to survive. The 2004 Sumatra tsunami attacked just before 7 years ago. The magnitude scale is almost same as M 9 scale. Why didn't Tohoku people and Japanese tsunami experts make use of the lessons? Japanese has a character outside Japan. This lesson shows it is difficult for human being to learn from other countries. As for Three mile island accident case in US, it was same for Japan. To addition to this, there are similar types of living lessons among different hazards. For examples, nuclear power plantations problem occurred both the 2012 Hurricane Sandy in US and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Both local people were not informed about the troubles though Oyster creek nuclear power station case in US did not proceed seriously all. Tsunami and Hurricane are different hazard. Each exparts stick to their last. 1. It is difficult for human being to transfer living lessons through next generation over decades. 2. It is difficult for human being to forecast inexperienced events. 3. It is usually underestimated the danger because human being have a tendency to judge based on own experience. 4. It is difficult for human being to make use of lessons from different countries because human being would not like to think own self suffer victim for a self-preservation mind. 5. It is usual for experts not to pay attention to other fields even if similar case occurs in different fields. We started collecting 18 hazards of such historical living lessons all over the world before the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. We adapted to this project collecting lessons from Tohoku tsunami and will publish for small children in developing countries in March 2013. This will be translated in at least 10 languages. This disaster lessons guide books are free. We will introduce some lessons in the presentations. We believe education is one of useful countermeasures to prevent from repeating same mistakes and transfer directly living lessons to new generations.

February 27, 2010 Chilean Tsunami in Pacific and its Arrival to North East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaytsev, Andrey; Pelinovsky, EfiM.; Yalciner, Ahmet C.; Ozer, Ceren; Chernov, Anton; Kostenko, Irina; Shevchenko, Georgy

2010-05-01

The outskirts of the fault plane broken by the strong earthquake on February 27, 2010 in Chili with a magnitude 8.8 at the 35km depth of 35.909°S, 72.733°W coordinates generated a moderate size tsunami. The initial amplitude of the tsunami source is not so high because of the major area of the plane was at land. The tsunami waves propagated far distances in South and North directions to East Asia and Wet America coasts. The waves are also recorded by several gauges in Pacific during its propagation and arrival to coastal areas. The recorded and observed amplitudes of tsunami waves are important for the potential effects with the threatening amplitudes. The event also showed that a moderate size tsunami can be effective even if it propagates far distances in any ocean or a marginal sea. The far east coasts of Russia at North East Asia (Sakhalin, Kuriles, Kamchatka) are one of the important source (i.e. November 15, 2006, Kuril Island Tsunami) and target (i.e. February, 27, 2010 Chilean tsunami) areas of the Pacific tsunamis. Many efforts have been spent for establishment of the monitoring system and assessment of tsunamis and development of the mitigation strategies against tsunamis and other hazards in the region. Development of the computer technologies provided the advances in data collection, transfer, and processing. Furthermore it also contributed new developments in computational tools and made the computer modeling to be an efficient tool in tsunami warning systems. In this study the tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE Nested version is used. NAMI-DANCE solves Nonlinear form of Long Wave (Shallow water) equations (with or without dispersion) using finite difference model in nested grid domains from the source to target areas in multiprocessor hardware environment. It is applied to 2010 Chilean tsunami and its propagation and coastal behavior at far distances near Sakhalin, Kuril and Kamchatka coasts. The main tide gauge records used in this study are from Petropavlosk (Kamchatka), Severo-Kurilsk (Paramushir), Kurilsk (Iturup, coast of the Okhotsk sea), Malokurilskoe (Shikotan), Korsakov, Kholmsk and Aniva Bay (Sakhalin). These records and also other offshore DART records are analyzed and used for comparison of the modeling results with offshore and nearshore records. The transmission of tsunami waves through Sakhalin and Kuril straits and their propagation to nearby coasts are investigated. The spectral analysis of records in settlements of Sakhalin and Kurile Islands are investigated. The performance and capabilities of NAMI DANCE is also presented together with comparisons between the model, observations and discussions.

Scenarios for earthquake-generated tsunamis on a complex tectonic area of diffuse deformation and low velocity: The Alboran Sea, Western Mediterranean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alvarez-Gomez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Gonzalez, M.; Olabarrieta, Maitane; Carreno, E.

2011-01-01

The tsunami impact on the Spanish and North African coasts of the Alboran Sea generated by several reliable seismic tsunamigenic sources in this area was modeled. The tectonic setting is complex and a study of the potential sources from geological data is basic to obtain probable source characteristics. The tectonic structures considered in this study as potentially tsunamigenic are: the Alboran Ridge associated structures, the Carboneras Fault Zone and the Yusuf Fault Zone. We characterized 12 probable tsunamigenic seismic sources in the Alboran Basin based on the results of recent oceanographical studies. The strain rate in the area is low and therefore its seismicity is moderate and cannot be used to infer characteristics of the major seismic sources. These sources have been used as input for the numerical simulation of the wave propagation, based on the solution of the nonlinear shallow water equations through a finite-difference technique. We calculated the Maximum Wave Elevations, and Tsunami Travel Times using the numerical simulations. The results are shown as maps and profiles along the Spanish and African coasts. The sources associated with the Alboran Ridge show the maximum potential to generate damaging tsunamis, with maximum wave elevations in front of the coast exceeding 1.5 m. The Carboneras and Yusuf faults are not capable of generating disastrous tsunamis on their own, although their proximity to the coast could trigger landslides and associated sea disturbances. The areas which are more exposed to the impact of tsunamis generated in the Alboran Sea are the Spanish coast between Malaga and Adra, and the African coast between Alhoceima and Melilla.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Source regions of concern to U.S. interests derived from NOAA Tsunami Forecast Model Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eble, M. C.; uslu, B. U.; Wright, L.

2013-12-01

Synthetic tsunamis generated from source regions around the Pacific Basin are analyzed in terms of their relative impact on United States coastal locations.. The region of tsunami origin is as important as the expected magnitude and the predicted inundation for understanding tsunami hazard. The NOAA Center for Tsunami Research has developed high-resolution tsunami models capable of predicting tsunami arrival time and amplitude of waves at each location. These models have been used to conduct tsunami hazard assessments to assess maximum impact and tsunami inundation for use by local communities in education and evacuation map development. Hazard assessment studies conducted for Los Angeles, San Francisco, Crescent City, Hilo, and Apra Harbor are combined with results of tsunami forecast model development at each of seventy-five locations. Complete hazard assessment, identifies every possible tsunami variation from a pre-computed propagation database. Study results indicate that the Eastern Aleutian Islands and Alaska are the most likely regions to produce the largest impact on the West Coast of the United States, while the East Philippines and Mariana trench regions impact Apra Harbor, Guam. Hawaii appears to be impacted equally from South America, Alaska and the Kuril Islands.

A deep scar in the flank of Tenerife (Canary Islands): Geophysical contribution to tsunami hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppo, Nicolas P.; Schnegg, Pierre-André; Falco, Pierik; Costa, Roberto

2009-05-01

Among the high-intensity on-Earth tsunami generating events, seismicity, submarine landslides, and volcano lateral collapses are the most important [Ward, S.H., 2001. Landslide tsunami. J. Geophy. Res. 106, 11201-11215; Holcomb, R.T., Searle, R.C., 1991. Large landslides from oceanic volcanoes. Mar. Geotech. 10, 19-32; Tinti, S., Bortolucci, E., Romagnoli, C., 2000. Computer simulations of tsunamis due to the sector collapse ar Stromboli, Italy. J. Volcano. Geotherm. Res. 96, 103-128; Ward, S.N., Day, S., 2003. Ritter Island Volcano — lateral collapse and the tsunami of 1888. Geophys. J. Int. 154, 891-902; MacGuire, W.J., 2003. Volcano instability and lateral collapse. Revista 1, 33-45]. Offshore bathymetry studies highlighted huge accumulations of large mass-waste flows (up to thousands cubic kilometres) inherited from past lateral collapses or submarine landslides [ Le Friant, A., Boudon, G., Deplus, C., Villemant, B., 2003. Large-scale flank collapse events during the activity of Montagne Pelée, Martinique, Lesser Antilles. J. Geophys. Res. 108, ECV13; Moore, J.G. et al., 1989. Prodigious submarine Landslides on the Hawaiian ridge. J. Geophys. Res. 94, 17465-17484] which spread over more than 100 km off the northern Tenerife (Canary Islands) coastline [Watts, A.B., Masson, D.G., 1995. A giant landslide on the north flank of Tenerife, Canary Islands. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 24487-24498]. Although mechanics and dynamics triggering such catastrophic events follow from combined complex processes and interactions [Hürlimann, M., Garcia-Piera, J.-O., Ledesma, A., 2000. Causes and mobility of large volcanic landslides: application to Tenerife, Canary Islands. J. Volcano. Geotherm. Res. 103, 121-134; Masson, D.G. et al., 2002. Slope failures on the flanks of the western Canary Islands. Earth-Sci. Rev. 57, 1-35; Reid, M.E., Sisson, T.W., Brien, D.L., 2001. Volcano collapse promoted by hydrothermal alteration and edifice shape, Mount Rainier, Washington. Geology 29, 779-782], potential movable volume is an unavoidable parameter to quantify and constrain tsunamigenic hazard. Numerical modelling of a tsunami generated by the potential La Palma landslide concluded that high amplitude waves threaten North Atlantic shorelines [Ward, S.N., Day, S.J., 2001. Cumbre Vieja volcano — Potential collapse and tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 397-400]. New audiomagnetotelluric results provide for the first time a good estimation of the Icod Valley (Tenerife, Canary Islands) volume, a potential giant landslide threatening the same shorelines. Two profiles image its electrically conductive roots with a characteristic of a U-shaped cross-section thought to be the consequence of previous landslides. By this study, we show that North Atlantic Ocean shorelines might be exposed to a destructive tsunami generated by a subaerial lateral collapse of at least 120 km 3 during the next strong felsic eruptive activity of the Teide-Pico Viejo complex. This article highlights the degree of urgency of carrying out geophysical investigations on the flanks of most volcanic islands prone to potential flank collapse. These investigations will contribute to the understanding of their structure — a key parameter in the sliding process. Finally, all results should be included in model, providing a global map of tsunami hazard assessment.

The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

2011-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available software repository provided by CEGIT. FOSSLAB serves as a platform for the development of FOSS projects in geospatial context, allowing to save, advance and reuse results achieved in previous and on-going project activities and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. FOSSLABs potential to preserve and advance existing best practices for reuse in new scenarios is documented by a first case study: For TEWS education and public outreach a comprehensive approach to generate high resolution globe maps was compiled using GRASS GIS and the POV-Ray rendering software. The task resulted in the merging of isolated technical know-how into publicly available best practices, which had been previously maintained in disparate GIS- and rendering communities. Beyond the scope of TRIDEC, FOSSLAB constitutes an umbrella encompassing several geoinformatics-related activities, such as the documentation of Best Practices for experiences and results while working with Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Geomatics, and future spatial processing on Computation Clusters and in Cloud Computing.

Regional Impact Modeling of Tsunami Propogation Into Mercury Bay, Whitianga, New Zealand — Implications for Hazard and Disaster Management at a Local Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pickett, Vernon; Prasetya, Gegar

2011-07-01

Whitianga is a small coastal town located on the eastern coastline of the Coromandel Peninsula, New Zealand. Historical evidence has shown that the town and surrounding area is susceptible to tsunami events, in particular to those tsunami generated in the far field, with up to three events occurring since European settlement in the middle to late 19th Century (1868, 1877, and 1960). The last event in May 1960 impacted much of the North Island's eastern coastline and resulted in waves of ˜1.8-C2.5m at Whitianga that inundated waterfront roads, several houses, and buildings, and resulted in many boats being swept from their moorings. However, more recent work identified that the area is also susceptible to locally generated tsunami from sources located along the Kermadec subduction system and associated volcanic arc that extends north eastward from New Zealand toward Tonga. The core of the study involves the application of a tsunami hydrodynamic model to provide detailed wave propagation and inundation information using a range of likely scenarios and to present this information so that that the community can understand the associated risks involved as a prelude to the development of a local emergency plan. This study shows that while source definition requires careful consideration, high resolution bathymetry and topographic data are also necessary to adequately assess the risk at a local level. The model used in this study incorporates a combination of multibeam, and ground and non-ground striking LIDAR data, with the results of the modeling providing useful information for stakeholders involved in the emergency planning process.

Lattice Boltzmann approach for hydro-acoustic waves generated by tsunamigenic sea bottom displacement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prestininzi, P.; Abdolali, A.; Montessori, A.; Kirby, J. T.; La Rocca, Michele

2016-11-01

Tsunami waves are generated by sea bottom failures, landslides and faults. The concurrent generation of hydro-acoustic waves (HAW), which travel much faster than the tsunami, has received much attention, motivated by their possible exploitation as precursors of tsunamis. This feature makes the detection of HAW particularly well-suited for building an early-warning system. Accuracy and efficiency of the modeling approaches for HAW thus play a pivotal role in the design of such systems. Here, we present a Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) for the generation and propagation of HAW resulting from tsunamigenic ground motions and verify it against commonly employed modeling solutions. LBM is well known for providing fast and accurate solutions to both hydrodynamics and acoustics problems, thus it naturally becomes a candidate as a comprehensive computational tool for modeling generation and propagation of HAW.

Numerical tsunami hazard assessment of the submarine volcano Kick 'em Jenny in high resolution are

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dondin, Frédéric; Dorville, Jean-Francois Marc; Robertson, Richard E. A.

2016-04-01

Landslide-generated tsunami are infrequent phenomena that can be potentially highly hazardous for population located in the near-field domain of the source. The Lesser Antilles volcanic arc is a curved 800 km chain of volcanic islands. At least 53 flank collapse episodes have been recognized along the arc. Several of these collapses have been associated with underwater voluminous deposits (volume > 1 km3). Due to their momentum these events were likely capable of generating regional tsunami. However no clear field evidence of tsunami associated with these voluminous events have been reported but the occurrence of such an episode nowadays would certainly have catastrophic consequences. Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ) is the only active submarine volcano of the Lesser Antilles Arc (LAA), with a current edifice volume estimated to 1.5 km3. It is the southernmost edifice of the LAA with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. The volcano appears to have undergone three episodes of flank failure. Numerical simulations of one of these episodes associated with a collapse volume of ca. 4.4 km3 and considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami with amplitude of 30 m. In the present study we applied a detailed hazard assessment on KeJ submarine volcano (KeJ) form its collapse to its waves impact on high resolution coastal area of selected island of the LAA in order to highlight needs to improve alert system and risk mitigation. We present the assessment process of tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (i.e. run-up) and flood dynamic (i.e. duration, height, speed...) at the coast of LAA island in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. After quantification of potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA, VolcanoFit 2.0 & SSAP 4.5) based on seven geomechanical models, the tsunami source have been simulate by St-Venant equations-based code (VolcFlow-Matlab). The wave have been propagated on the coastal area of two island with high resolution bathymetry (Litto3D). Keywords - Volcano edifice stability, Collapse volume estimate, Tsunami impact, Kick 'em Jenny, wave propagation, Lesser Antilles, High resolution bathymetry

Discrimination of tsunamigenic earthquakes by ionospheric sounding using GNSS observations of total electron content from the Sumatran GPS Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manta, F.; Feng, L.; Occhipinti, G.; Taisne, B.; Hill, E.

2017-12-01

Tsunami earthquakes generate tsunamis larger than expected for their seismic magnitude. They rupture the shallow megathrust, which is usually at significant distance from land-based monitoring networks. This distance presents a challenge in accurately estimating the magnitude and source extent of tsunami earthquakes. Whether these parameters can be estimated reliably is critical to the success of tsunami early warning systems. In this work, we investigate the potential role of using GNSS-observed ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to discriminate tsunami earthquakes, by introducing for the first time the TEC Intensity Index (TECII) for rapidly identify tsunamigenic earthquakes. We examine two Mw 7.8 megathrust events along the Sumatran subduction zone with data from the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr). Both events triggered a tsunami alert that was canceled later. The Banyaks event (April 6th, 2010) did not generate a tsunami and caused only minor earthquake-related damage to infrastructure. On the contrary, the Mentawai event (October 25th, 2010) produced a large tsunami with run-up heights of >16 m along the southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands. The tsunami claimed more than 400 lives. The primary difference between the two events was the depth of rupture: the Mentawai event ruptured a very shallow (<6 km) portion of the Sunda megathrust, while the Banyaks event ruptured a deeper portion (20-30 km). While we identify only a minor ionospheric signature of the Banyaks event (TECII = 1.05), we identify a strong characteristic acoustic-gravity wave only 8 minutes after the Mentawai earthquake (TECII = 1.14) and a characteristic signature of a tsunami 40 minutes after the event. These two signals reveal the large surface displacement at the rupture, and the consequent destructive tsunami. This comparative study of two earthquakes with the same magnitude at different depths highlights the potential role of ionospheric monitoring by GNSS to tsunami early warning systems

Tsunami Simulators in Physical Modelling Laboratories - From Concept to Proven Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allsop, W.; Chandler, I.; Rossetto, T.; McGovern, D.; Petrone, C.; Robinson, D.

2016-12-01

Before 2004, there was little public awareness around Indian Ocean coasts of the potential size and effects of tsunami. Even in 2011, the scale and extent of devastation by the Japan East Coast Tsunami was unexpected. There were very few engineering tools to assess onshore impacts of tsunami, so no agreement on robust methods to predict forces on coastal defences, buildings or related infrastructure. Modelling generally used substantial simplifications of either solitary waves (far too short durations) or dam break (unrealistic and/or uncontrolled wave forms).This presentation will describe research from EPI-centre, HYDRALAB IV, URBANWAVES and CRUST projects over the last 10 years that have developed and refined pneumatic Tsunami Simulators for the hydraulic laboratory. These unique devices have been used to model generic elevated and N-wave tsunamis up to and over simple shorelines, and at example defences. They have reproduced full-duration tsunamis including the Mercator trace from 2004 at 1:50 scale. Engineering scale models subjected to those tsunamis have measured wave run-up on simple slopes, forces on idealised sea defences and pressures / forces on buildings. This presentation will describe how these pneumatic Tsunami Simulators work, demonstrate how they have generated tsunami waves longer than the facility within which they operate, and will highlight research results from the three generations of Tsunami Simulator. Of direct relevance to engineers and modellers will be measurements of wave run-up levels and comparison with theoretical predictions. Recent measurements of forces on individual buildings have been generalized by separate experiments on buildings (up to 4 rows) which show that the greatest forces can act on the landward (not seaward) buildings. Continuing research in the 70m long 4m wide Fast Flow Facility on tsunami defence structures have also measured forces on buildings in the lee of a failed defence wall.

A possible transoceanic tsunami directed toward the U.S. west coast from the Semidi segment, Alaska convergent margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Huene, Roland E.; Miller, John J.; Dartnell, Peter

2016-01-01

The Semidi segment of the Alaska convergent margin appears capable of generating a giant tsunami like the one produced along the nearby Unimak segment in 1946. Reprocessed legacy seismic reflection data and a compilation of multibeam bathymetric surveys reveal structures that could generate such a tsunami. A 200 km long ridge or escarpment with crests >1 km high is the surface expression of an active out-of-sequence fault zone, recently referred to as a splay fault. Such faults are potentially tsunamigenic. This type of fault zone separates the relatively rigid rock of the margin framework from the anelastic accreted sediment prism. Seafloor relief of the ridge exceeds that of similar age accretionary prism ridges indicating preferential slip along the splay fault zone. The greater slip may derive from Quaternary subduction of the Patton Murray hot spot ridge that extends 200 km toward the east across the north Pacific. Estimates of tsunami repeat times from paleotsunami studies indicate that the Semidi segment could be near the end of its current inter-seismic cycle. GPS records from Chirikof Island at the shelf edge indicate 90% locking of plate interface faults. An earthquake in the shallow Semidi subduction zone could generate a tsunami that will inundate the US west coast more than the 1946 and 1964 earthquakes because the Semidi continental slope azimuth directs a tsunami southeastward.

Tsunami Simulators in Physical Modelling - Concept to Practical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandler, Ian; Allsop, William; Robinson, David; Rossetto, Tiziana; McGovern, David; Todd, David

2017-04-01

Whilst many researchers have conducted simple 'tsunami impact' studies, few engineering tools are available to assess the onshore impacts of tsunami, with no agreed methods available to predict loadings on coastal defences, buildings or related infrastructure. Most previous impact studies have relied upon unrealistic waveforms (solitary or dam-break waves and bores) rather than full-duration tsunami waves, or have used simplified models of nearshore and over-land flows. Over the last 10+ years, pneumatic Tsunami Simulators for the hydraulic laboratory have been developed into an exciting and versatile technology, allowing the forces of real-world tsunami to be reproduced and measured in a laboratory environment for the first time. These devices have been used to model generic elevated and N-wave tsunamis up to and over simple shorelines, and at example coastal defences and infrastructure. They have also reproduced full-duration tsunamis including Mercator 2004 and Tohoku 2011, both at 1:50 scale. Engineering scale models of these tsunamis have measured wave run-up on simple slopes, forces on idealised sea defences, pressures / forces on buildings, and scour at idealised buildings. This presentation will describe how these Tsunami Simulators work, demonstrate how they have generated tsunami waves longer than the facilities within which they operate, and will present research results from three generations of Tsunami Simulators. Highlights of direct importance to natural hazard modellers and coastal engineers include measurements of wave run-up levels, forces on single and multiple buildings and comparison with previous theoretical predictions. Multiple buildings have two malign effects. The density of buildings to flow area (blockage ratio) increases water depths and flow velocities in the 'streets'. But the increased building densities themselves also increase the cost of flow per unit area (both personal and monetary). The most recent study with the Tsunami Simulators therefore focussed on the influence of multiple buildings (up to 4 rows) which showed (for instance) that the greatest forces can act on the landward (not seaward) rows of buildings. Studies in the 70m long, 4m wide main channel of the Fast Flow Facility on tsunami defence structures have also measured forces on buildings in the lee of a failed defence wall and tsunami induced scour. Supporting presentations at this conference: McGovern et al on tsunami induced scour at coastal structures and Foster et al on building loads.

Tsunami hazard maps of spanish coast at national scale from seismic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; González, Mauricio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; García, Pablo

2017-04-01

Tsunamis are a moderately frequent phenomenon in the NEAM (North East Atlantic and Mediterranean) region, and consequently in Spain, as historic and recent events have affected this area. I.e., the 1755 earthquake and tsunami affected the Spanish Atlantic coasts of Huelva and Cadiz and the 2003 Boumerdés earthquake triggered a tsunami that reached Balearic island coast in less than 45 minutes. The risk in Spain is real and, its population and tourism rate makes it vulnerable to this kind of catastrophic events. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the tsunami in Japan in 2011 launched the worldwide development and application of tsunami risk reduction measures that have been taken as a priority in this field. On November 20th 2015 the directive of the Spanish civil protection agency on planning under the emergency of tsunami was presented. As part of the Spanish National Security strategy, this document specifies the structure of the action plans at different levels: National, regional and local. In this sense, the first step is the proper evaluation of the tsunami hazard at National scale. This work deals with the assessment of the tsunami hazard in Spain, by means of numerical simulations, focused on the elaboration of tsunami hazard maps at National scale. To get this, following a deterministic approach, the seismic structures whose earthquakes could generate the worst tsunamis affecting the coast of Spain have been compiled and characterized. These worst sources have been propagated numerically along a reconstructed bathymetry, built from the best resolution available data. This high-resolution bathymetry was joined with a 25-m resolution DTM, to generate continuous offshore-onshore space, allowing the calculation of the flooded areas prompted by each selected source. The numerical model applied for the calculation of the tsunami propagations was COMCOT. The maps resulting from the numerical simulations show not only the tsunami amplitude at coastal areas but also the run-up and inundation length from the coastline. The run-up has been calculated with numerical model, complemented with an alternative method, based on interpolation on a tsunami run-up database created ad hoc. These estimated variables allow the identification of the most affected areas in case of tsunami and they are also the base for the local authorities to evaluate the necessity of new higher resolution studies at local scale on specific areas.

Extreme wave deposits on the Pacific coast of Mexico: Tsunamis or storms? — A multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramírez-Herrera, María-Teresa; Lagos, Marcelo; Hutchinson, Ian; Kostoglodov, Vladimir; Machain, Maria Luisa; Caballero, Margarita; Goguitchaichvili, Avto; Aguilar, Bertha; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James; Ruiz-Fernández, Ana-Carolina; Ortiz, Modesto; Nava, Hector; Bautista, Francisco; Lopez, Gloria I.; Quintana, Patricia

2012-02-01

Historical and instrumental data show that the Pacific coast of Mexico has been exposed to destructive tsunamis over at least the past 500 years. This coast is also affected by hurricanes generated in the eastern Pacific. The great 1985 Mexico earthquake and its aftershock generated tsunamis that affected the Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo and Michoacán coast. The purpose of our study was two-fold — a) to determine whether storm and tsunami deposits could be distinguished, and b) whether tsunami deposits from historical events are preserved in the tropical environments of the Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo coast. Two anomalous sand units in the Ixtapa estuary are interpreted to be the result of high-energy marine inundation events that occurred in the last century. Several lines of evidence using a multi-proxy approach (historical studies, interviews with local witnesses, geomorphological and geological surveys, coring and trenching, laboratory analyses including grain size, micropaleontology, geochemistry, magnetic susceptibility and radiometric dating, and numerical modeling) indicate the occurrence of two tsunamis that we link to local events: the 21st September 1985 Mexico and possibly the 14th March 1979 Petatlan earthquakes. We thereby provide the first onshore geological evidence of historical tsunamis on the Pacific coast of Mexico.

Impact of Hellenic Arc Tsunamis on Corsica (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, Audrey; Schindelé, F.; Hébert, H.

2016-12-01

In the historical period, the Eastern Mediterranean has been devastated by several tsunamis, the two most damaging were those of AD 365 and AD 1303, generated by great earthquakes of magnitude >8 at the Hellenic plate boundary. Recently, events of 6-7 magnitude have occurred in this region. As the French tsunami warning center has to ensure the warning for the French coastlines, the question has raised the possibility for a major tsunami triggered along the Hellenic arc to impact the French coasts. The focus is on the Corsica coasts especially, to estimate what would be the expected wave heights, and from which threshold of magnitude it would be necessary to put the population under cover. This study shows that a magnitude 8.0 earthquake nucleated along the Hellenic arc could induce in some cases a tsunami that would be observed along the Corsica coasts, and for events of 8.5 magnitude amplitudes exceeding 50 cm can be expected, which would be dangerous in harbors and beach areas especially. The main contribution of these results is the establishment of specific thresholds of magnitude for the tsunami warning along the French coasts, 7.8 for the advisory level (coastal marine threat with harbors and beaches evacuation), and 8.3 for the watch level (inland inundation threat) for tsunamis generated along the Hellenic arc.

Tsunami-induced morphological change of a coastal lake: comparing hydraulic experiment with numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugawara, D.; Imai, K.; Mitobe, Y.; Takahashi, T.

2016-12-01

Coastal lakes are one of the promising environments to identify deposits of past tsunamis, and such deposits have been an important key to know the recurrence of tsunami events. In contrast to tsunami deposits on the coastal plains, however, relationship between deposit geometry and tsunami hydrodynamic character in the coastal lakes has poorly been understood. Flume experiment and numerical modeling will be important measures to clarify such relationship. In this study, data from a series of flume experiment were compared with simulations by an existing tsunami sediment transport model to examine applicability of the numerical model for tsunami-induced morphological change in a coastal lake. A coastal lake with a non-erodible beach ridge was modeled as the target geomorphology. The ridge separates the lake from the offshore part of the flume, and the lake bottom was filled by sand. Tsunami bore was generated by a dam-break flow, which is capable of generating a maximum near-bed flow speed of 2.5 m/s. Test runs with varying magnitude of the bore demonstrated that the duration of tsunami overflow controls the scouring depth of the lake bottom behind the ridge. The maximum scouring depth reached up to 7 cm, and sand deposition occurred mainly in the seaward-half of the lake. A conventional depth-averaged tsunami hydrodynamic model coupled with the sediment transport model was used to compare the simulation and experimental results. In the Simulation, scouring depth behind the ridge reached up to 6 cm. In addition, the width of the scouring was consistent between the simulation and experiment. However, sand deposition occurred mainly in a zone much far from the ridge, showing a considerable deviation from the experimental results. This may be associated with the lack of model capability to resolve some important physics, such as vortex generation behind the ridge and shoreward migration of hydraulic jump. In this presentation, the results from the flume experiment and the numerical modeling will be compared in detail, including temporal evolution of the morphological change. In addition, model applicability and future improvements will be discussed.

Boulder emplacement and remobilisation by cyclone and submarine landslide tsunami waves near Suva City, Fiji

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, A. Y. Annie; Terry, James P.; Ziegler, Alan; Pratap, Arti; Harris, Daniel

2018-02-01

The characteristics of a reef-top boulder field created by a local submarine landslide tsunami are presented for the first time. Our examination of large reef-derived boulders deposited by the 1953 tsunami near Suva City, Fiji, revealed that shorter-than-normal-period tsunami waves generated by submarine landslides can create a boulder field resembling a storm boulder field due to relatively short boulder transport distances. The boulder-inferred 1953 tsunami flow velocity is estimated at over 9 m s- 1 at the reef edge. Subsequent events, for example Cyclone Kina (1993), appear to have remobilised some large boulders. While prior research has demonstrated headward retreat of Suva Canyon in response to the repeated occurrence of earthquakes over the past few millennia, our results highlight the lingering vulnerability of the Fijian coastlines to high-energy waves generated both in the presence (tsunami) and absence (storm) of submarine failures and/or earthquakes. To explain the age discrepancies of U-Th dated coral comprising the deposited boulders, we introduce a conceptual model showing the role of repeated episodes of tsunamigenic submarine landslides in removing reef front sections through collapse. Subsequent high-energy wave events transport boulders from exposed older sections of the reef front onto the reef where they are deposited as 'new' boulders, alongside freshly detached sections of the living reef. In similar situations where anachronistic deposits complicate the deposition signal, age-dating of the coral boulders should not be used as a proxy for determining the timing of the submarine landslides or the tsunamis that generated them.

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Peters, Jeff

2015-01-01

Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been based on single hazard zones, even though a coastal community may be threatened by multiple tsunami sources that vary locally in terms of inundation extents and wave arrival times. We use the Alaskan coastal communities of Cordova, Kodiak, Seward, Valdez, and Whittier (USA), as a case study to explore population vulnerability to multiple tsunami threats. We use anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to assess variations in population exposure as a function of travel time out of hazard zones associated with tectonic and landslide-related tsunamis (based on scenarios similar to the 1964 M w9.2 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster). Results demonstrate that there are thousands of residents, employees, and business customers in tsunami hazard zones associated with tectonically generated waves, but that at-risk individuals will likely have sufficient time to evacuate to high ground before waves are estimated to arrive 30–60 min after generation. Tsunami hazard zones associated with submarine landslides initiated by a subduction zone earthquake are smaller and contain fewer people, but many at-risk individuals may not have enough time to evacuate as waves are estimated to arrive in 1–2 min and evacuations may need to occur during earthquake ground shaking. For all hazard zones, employees and customers at businesses far outnumber residents at their homes and evacuation travel times are highest on docks and along waterfronts. Results suggest that population vulnerability studies related to tsunami hazards should recognize non-residential populations and differences in wave arrival times if emergency managers are to develop realistic preparedness and outreach efforts.

Scenario-based numerical modelling and the palaeo-historic record of tsunamis in Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarche, G.; Popinet, S.; Pelletier, B.; Mountjoy, J.; Goff, J.; Delaux, S.; Bind, J.

2015-08-01

We investigated the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using the Gerris flow solver to produce numerical models of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited volcanic island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef. Futuna and the island of Alofi form the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east of Wallis. They are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef. Futuna and Alofi emerge from the North Fiji Transform Fault that marks the seismically active Pacific-Australia plate boundary. We generated 15 tsunami scenarios. For each, we calculated maximum wave elevation (MWE), inundation distance and expected time of arrival (ETA). The tsunami sources were local, regional and distant earthquake faults located along the Pacific Rim. In Wallis, the outer reef may experience 6.8 m-high MWE. Uvéa is protected by the barrier reef and the lagoon, but inundation depths of 2-3 m occur in several coastal areas. In Futuna, flow depths exceeding 2 m are modelled in several populated areas, and have been confirmed by a post-September 2009 South Pacific tsunami survey. The channel between the islands of Futuna and Alofi amplified the 2009 tsunami, which resulted in inundation distance of almost 100 m and MWE of 4.4 m. This first ever tsunami hazard modelling study of Wallis and Futuna compares well with palaeotsunamis recognised on both islands and observation of the impact of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. The study provides evidence for the mitigating effect of barrier and fringing reefs from tsunamis.

Scenario-based numerical modelling and the palaeo-historic record of tsunamis in Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarche, G.; Popinet, S.; Pelletier, B.; Mountjoy, J.; Goff, J.; Delaux, S.; Bind, J.

2015-04-01

We investigated the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using the Gerris flow solver to produce numerical models of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited volcanic island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef. Futuna and the island of Alofi forms the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east of Wallis. They are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef. Futuna and Alofi emerge from the North Fiji Transform Fault that marks the seismically active Pacific-Australia plate boundary. We generated fifteen tsunami scenarios. For each, we calculated maximum wave elevation (MWE), inundation distance, and Expected Time of Arrival (ETA). The tsunami sources were local, regional and distant earthquake faults located along the Pacific Rim. In Wallis, the outer reef may experience 6.8 m-high MWE. Uvéa is protected by the barrier reef and the lagoon, but inundation depths of 2-3 m occur in several coastal areas. In Futuna, flow depths exceeding 2 m are modelled in several populated areas, and have been confirmed by a post-September 2009 South Pacific tsunami survey. The channel between the islands of Futuna and Alofi amplified the 2009 tsunami, which resulted in inundation distance of almost 100 m and MWE of 4.4 m. This first-ever tsunami hazard modelling study of Wallis and Futuna compares well with palaeotsunamis recognised on both islands and observation of the impact of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. The study provides evidence for the mitigating effect of barrier and fringing reefs from tsunamis.

Impact of Near-Field, Deep-Ocean Tsunami Observations on Forecasting the 7 December 2012 Japanese Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, Eddie; Wei, Yong; Tang, Liujuan; Titov, Vasily

2014-12-01

Following the devastating 11 March 2011 tsunami, two deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART®)(DART® and the DART® logo are registered trademarks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, used with permission) stations were deployed in Japanese waters by the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Two weeks after deployment, on 7 December 2012, a M w 7.3 earthquake off Japan's Pacific coastline generated a tsunami. The tsunami was recorded at the two Japanese DARTs as early as 11 min after the earthquake origin time, which set a record as the fastest tsunami detecting time at a DART station. These data, along with those recorded at other DARTs, were used to derive a tsunami source using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami forecast system. The results of our analysis show that data provided by the two near-field Japanese DARTs can not only improve the forecast speed but also the forecast accuracy at the Japanese tide gauge stations. This study provides important guidelines for early detection and forecasting of local tsunamis.

The Great Chilean Tsunamis of 2010, 2014 and 2015 on the Coast and Offshore of Mexico: Comparative Features Based on Open-Ocean Energy Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, A.; Zaytsev, O.; Thomson, R.

2016-12-01

The three recent great earthquakes offshore of Chile on 27 February 2010 (Maule, Mw 8.8), 1 April 2014 (Iquique, Mw 8.2) and 16 September 2015 (Illapel, Mw 8.3) generated major trans-oceanic tsunamis that spread throughout the entire Pacific Ocean and were measured by numerous coastal tide gauges and open-ocean DART stations. Statistical and spectral analyses of the tsunami waves from the three events recorded on the Pacific coast of Mexico enabled us to compare the events and to identify coastal "hot spots", regions with maximum tsunami risk. Based on joint spectral analyses of tsunamis and background noise, we have developed a method for reconstructing the "true" tsunami spectra in the deep ocean. The "reconstructed" open-ocean tsunami spectra are in excellent agreement with the actual tsunami spectra evaluated from direct analysis of the DART records offshore of Mexico. We have further used the spectral estimates to parameterize the energy of the three Chilean tsunamis based on the total open-ocean tsunami energy and frequency content of the individual events.

Multiple Solutions of Real-time Tsunami Forecasting Using Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gica, E.

2016-12-01

The Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) tool, developed by NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), is used in forecast operations at the Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The SIFT tool relies on a pre-computed tsunami propagation database, real-time DART buoy data, and an inversion algorithm to define the tsunami source. The tsunami propagation database is composed of 50×100km unit sources, simulated basin-wide for at least 24 hours. Different combinations of unit sources, DART buoys, and length of real-time DART buoy data can generate a wide range of results within the defined tsunami source. For an inexperienced SIFT user, the primary challenge is to determine which solution, among multiple solutions for a single tsunami event, would provide the best forecast in real time. This study investigates how the use of different tsunami sources affects simulated tsunamis at tide gauge locations. Using the tide gauge at Hilo, Hawaii, a total of 50 possible solutions for the 2011 Tohoku tsunami are considered. Maximum tsunami wave amplitude and root mean square error results are used to compare tide gauge data and the simulated tsunami time series. Results of this study will facilitate SIFT users' efforts to determine if the simulated tide gauge tsunami time series from a specific tsunami source solution would be within the range of possible solutions. This study will serve as the basis for investigating more historical tsunami events and tide gauge locations.

Development of jacket platform tsunami risk rating system in waters offshore North Borneo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. E.; Liew, M. S.; Mardi, N. H.; Na, K. L.; Toloue, Iraj; Wong, S. K.

2016-09-01

This work details the simulation of tsunami waves generated by seaquakes in the Manila Trench and their effect on fixed oil and gas jacket platforms in waters offshore North Borneo. For this study, a four-leg living quarter jacket platform located in a water depth of 63m is modelled in SACS v5.3. Malaysia has traditionally been perceived to be safe from the hazards of earthquakes and tsunamis. Local design practices tend to neglect tsunami waves and include no such provisions. In 2004, a 9.3 M w seaquake occurred off the northwest coast of Aceh, which generated tsunami waves that caused destruction in Malaysia totalling US 25 million and 68 deaths. This event prompted an awareness of the need to study the reliability of fixed offshore platforms scattered throughout Malaysian waters. In this paper, we present a review of research on the seismicity of the Manila Trench, which is perceived to be high risk for Southeast Asia. From the tsunami numerical model TUNA-M2, we extract computer-simulated tsunami waves at prescribed grid points in the vicinity of the platforms in the region. Using wave heights as input, we simulate the tsunami using SACS v5.3 structural analysis software of offshore platforms, which is widely accepted by the industry. We employ the nonlinear solitary wave theory in our tsunami loading calculations for the platforms, and formulate a platform-specific risk quantification system. We then perform an intensive structural sensitivity analysis and derive a corresponding platform-specific risk rating model.

Source location impact on relative tsunami strength along the U.S. West Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, L.; Bromirski, P. D.; Miller, A. J.; Arcas, D.; Flick, R. E.; Hendershott, M. C.

2015-07-01

Tsunami propagation simulations are used to identify which tsunami source locations would produce the highest amplitude waves on approach to key population centers along the U.S. West Coast. The reasons for preferential influence of certain remote excitation sites are explored by examining model time sequences of tsunami wave patterns emanating from the source. Distant bathymetric features in the West and Central Pacific can redirect tsunami energy into narrow paths with anomalously large wave height that have disproportionate impact on small areas of coastline. The source region generating the waves can be as little as 100 km along a subduction zone, resulting in distinct source-target pairs with sharply amplified wave energy at the target. Tsunami spectral ratios examined for transects near the source, after crossing the West Pacific, and on approach to the coast illustrate how prominent bathymetric features alter wave spectral distributions, and relate to both the timing and magnitude of waves approaching shore. To contextualize the potential impact of tsunamis from high-amplitude source-target pairs, the source characteristics of major historical earthquakes and tsunamis in 1960, 1964, and 2011 are used to generate comparable events originating at the highest-amplitude source locations for each coastal target. This creates a type of "worst-case scenario," a replicate of each region's historically largest earthquake positioned at the fault segment that would produce the most incoming tsunami energy at each target port. An amplification factor provides a measure of how the incoming wave height from the worst-case source compares to the historical event.

Inversion of the perturbation GPS-TEC data induced by tsunamis in order to estimate the sea level anomaly.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, Virgile; Lognonné, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie; Coïsson, Pierdavide; Drilleau, Mélanie

2017-04-01

Large underwater earthquakes (Mw > 7) can transmit part of their energy to the surrounding ocean through large sea-floor motions, generating tsunamis that propagate over long distances. The forcing effect of tsunami waves on the atmosphere generate internal gravity waves which produce detectable ionospheric perturbations when they reach the upper atmosphere. Theses perturbations are frequently observed in the total electron content (TEC) measured by the multi-frequency Global navigation Satellite systems (GNSS) data (e.g., GPS,GLONASS). In this paper, we performed for the first time an inversion of the sea level anomaly using the GPS TEC data using a least square inversion (LSQ) through a normal modes summation modeling technique. Using the tsunami of the 2012 Haida Gwaii in far field as a test case, we showed that the amplitude peak to peak of the sea level anomaly inverted using this method is below 10 % error. Nevertheless, we cannot invert the second wave arriving 20 minutes later. This second wave is generaly explain by the coastal reflection which the normal modeling does not take into account. Our technique is then applied to two other tsunamis : the 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami in far field, and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in closer field. This demonstrates that the inversion using a normal mode approach is able to estimate fairly well the amplitude of the first arrivals of the tsunami. In the future, we plan to invert in real the TEC data in order to retrieve the tsunami height.

Stakeholder-driven geospatial modeling for assessing tsunami vertical-evacuation strategies in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.; Schmidtlein, M.; Schelling, J.; Jones, J.; Ng, P.

2012-12-01

Recent tsunami disasters, such as the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku events, demonstrate the significant life loss that can occur from tsunamis. Many coastal communities in the world are threatened by near-field tsunami hazards that may inundate low-lying areas only minutes after a tsunami begins. Geospatial integration of demographic data and hazard zones has identified potential impacts on populations in communities susceptible to near-field tsunami threats. Pedestrian-evacuation models build on these geospatial analyses to determine if individuals in tsunami-prone areas will have sufficient time to reach high ground before tsunami-wave arrival. Areas where successful evacuations are unlikely may warrant vertical-evacuation (VE) strategies, such as berms or structures designed to aid evacuation. The decision of whether and where VE strategies are warranted is complex. Such decisions require an interdisciplinary understanding of tsunami hazards, land cover conditions, demography, community vulnerability, pedestrian-evacuation models, land-use and emergency-management policy, and decision science. Engagement with the at-risk population and local emergency managers in VE planning discussions is critical because resulting strategies include permanent structures within a community and their local ownership helps ensure long-term success. We present a summary of an interdisciplinary approach to assess VE options in communities along the southwest Washington coast (U.S.A.) that are threatened by near-field tsunami hazards generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Pedestrian-evacuation models based on an anisotropic approach that uses path-distance algorithms were merged with population data to forecast the distribution of at-risk individuals within several communities as a function of travel time to safe locations. A series of community-based workshops helped identify potential VE options in these communities, collectively known as "Project Safe Haven" at the State of Washington Emergency Management Division. Models of the influence of stakeholder-driven VE options identified changes in the type and distribution of at-risk individuals. Insights from VE use and performance as an aid to evacuations from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami helped to inform the meetings and the analysis. We developed geospatial tools to automate parts of the pedestrian-evacuation models to support the iterative process of developing VE options and forecasting changes in population exposure. Our summary presents the interdisciplinary effort to forecast population impacts from near-field tsunami threats and to develop effective VE strategies to minimize fatalities in future events.

Tsunami Defense Efforts at Samcheok Port, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Y. S.

2016-02-01

Tsunamis mainly triggered by impulsive undersea motions are long waves and can propagate a long distance. Thus, they can cause huge casualties not only neighboring countries but also distant countries. Recently, several devastating tsunamis have been occurred around the Pacific Ocean rim. Among them, the Great East Japan tsunami occurred on March 11, 2011 is probably recorded as one of the most destructive tsunamis during last several decades. The Tsunami killed more than 20,000 people (including missing people) and deprived of property damage of approximately 300 billion USD. The eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula has been attacked historically by unexpected tsunami events. These tsunamis were generated by undersea earthquakes occurred off the west coast of Japan. For example, the Central East Sea Tsunami occurred on May 26, 1983 killed 3 people and caused serious property damage at Samcheok Port located at the eastern coast of Korea. Thus, a defense plan against unexpected tsunami strikes is an essential task for the port authority to protect lives of human beings and port facilities. In this study, a master plan of tsunami defense is introduced at Samcheok Port. A tsunami hazard map is also made by employing both propagation and inundation models. Detailed defense efforts are described including the procedure of development of a tsunami hazard map. Keywords: tsunami, hazard map, run-up height, emergency action plan

Modeling potential tsunami sources for deposits near Unalaska Island, Aleutian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Selle, S.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.

2013-12-01

In regions with little seismic data and short historical records of earthquakes, we can use preserved tsunami deposits and tsunami modeling to infer if, when and where tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred. The Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone in the region offshore of Unalaska Island is one such region where the historical and paleo-seismicity is poorly understood. This section of the subduction zone is not thought to have ruptured historically in a large earthquake, leading some to designate the region as a seismic gap. By modeling various historical and synthetic earthquake sources, we investigate whether or not tsunamis that left deposits near Unalaska Island were generated by earthquakes rupturing through Unalaska Gap. Preliminary field investigations near the eastern end of Unalaska Island have identified paleotsunami deposits well above sea level, suggesting that multiple tsunamis in the last 5,000 years have flooded low-lying areas over 1 km inland. Other indicators of tsunami inundation, such as a breached cobble beach berm and driftwood logs stranded far inland, were tentatively attributed to the March 9, 1957 tsunami, which had reported runup of 13 to 22 meters on Umnak and Unimak Islands, to the west and east of Unalaska. In order to determine if tsunami inundation could have reached the runup markers observed on Unalaska, we modeled the 1957 tsunami using GeoCLAW, a numerical model that simulates tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation. The published rupture orientation and slip distribution for the MW 8.6, 1957 earthquake (Johnson et al., 1994) was used as the tsunami source, which delineates a 1200 km long rupture zone along the Aleutian trench from Delarof Island to Unimak Island. Model results indicate that runup and inundation from this particular source are too low to account for the runup markers observed in the field, because slip is concentrated in the western half of the rupture zone, far from Unalaska. To ascertain if any realistic, earthquake-generated tsunami could account for the observed runup, we modeled tsunami inundation from synthetic MW 9.2 earthquakes rupturing along the trench between Atka and Unimak Islands, which indicate that the deposit runup observed on Unalaska is possible from a source of this size and orientation. Further modeling efforts will examine the April 1, 1946 Aleutian tsunami, as well as other synthetic tsunamigenic earthquake sources of varying size and location, which may provide insight into the rupture history of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone, especially in combination with more data from paleotsunami deposits. Johnson, Jean M., Tanioka, Yuichiro, Ruff, Larry J., Satake, Kenji, Kanamori, Hiroo, Sykes, Lynn R. "The 1957 great Aleutian earthquake." Pure and Applied Geophysics 142.1 (1994): 3-28.

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan

PubMed Central

Satake, Kenji

2018-01-01

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [Mw (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non–double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of Mzx, Mzy, and M{tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved. PMID:29740604

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan.

PubMed

Fukao, Yoshio; Sandanbata, Osamu; Sugioka, Hiroko; Ito, Aki; Shiobara, Hajime; Watada, Shingo; Satake, Kenji

2018-04-01

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [ M w (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non-double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of M zx , M zy , and M {tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved.

Prehistoric (Chalcolithic) Eastern Mediterranean tsunami deposit identified offshore central Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyuleneva, Natalia; Braun, Yael; Suchkov, Igor; Goodman-Tchernov, Beverly

2017-04-01

The shallow shelf area ( 15-30 m water depth) offshore Israel, bears great potential for paleo-tsunami studies. It was shown in the course of previous research that in these offshore marine deposits, tsunami generated sedimentary layers can be well preserved and readily identified; unlike in onshore sedimentary sequences, which experience continuous exogenous natural and anthropogenic influence. A sediment core, 219 cm long, was obtained from 15.3 m water depth, in about 4 km north of Caesarea. Grain size at 1 cm interval as well as XRD and XRF analyses at coarser resolution were performed. Previously carried out research allowed correlation of two anomalous layers in this core with well described sediment sequences offshore Caesarea. These two events correspond best with the proposed events of 749 AD and 1500 BC. Identified unusual layers in this core bear certain set of proxies that are characteristic for tsunami generated deposits and easily distinguished from the local normal marine setting. The latter is characterized by three dominating mineralogical components, such as carbonaceous sand derived either from biogenic material, namely shell fragments or from eroded limestones and dolomites that outcrop the mountains to the east; siliciclastic quartz for the sand fraction and mineral smectite for the clays. The supply of the two latter terrigenous sedimentary components comes from the Nile River, which has been a stable and predominant source of sediments for the past 8 ka. The aim of this study is to characterize the earliest unusual sedimentary layer found down core between 191 and 211 cm. This layer was attributed to a tsunami-generated sedimentary sequence in the studied core. Absolute age determination based on 14C gave the time frame from 5.6 to 6 ka BP, making this event the oldest identified in the Eastern Mediterranean to date. This tsunami corresponds to the Chalcolithic ('Copper Age') cultural period of the region. Prehistoric age of these sediments makes it impossible to correlate these identified tsunami generated sediments with any known tsunami or earthquake, since the event pre dates any written catalogues of the mentioned hazardous events. The results of this study allow to make following conclusions: (1) the unusual sedimentary layer carries indicators, characteristic for tsunami generated sediments in the studied core, such as distinct deviation of granulometric coefficients (mean, median, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis) and presence of whole, imbricated bivalve mollusks shells; (2) the upper part of tsunami generated layer is characterized by increased content of illite, a characteristic clay mineral for terrestrial sediments; (3) increased content of heavy minerals and such elements as iron, titanium and zirconium at the top of the layer coincide with increased content of coarse sand fraction (541-1821 micron) suggesting deposition in high energy sedimentological setting and influence of a strong backwash wave, carrying terrestrial material to offshore marine environment.

Generation, propagation and run-up of tsunamis due to the Chicxulub impact event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weisz, R.; Wuennenmann, K.; Bahlburg, H.

2003-04-01

The Chicxulub impact event can be investigated in (1) local, (2) regional and in (3) global scales. Our investigations focus on the regional scale, especially on the influence of tsunami waves on the coast around the Gulf of Mexico caused by the impact. During an impact two types of tsunamis are generated. The first wave is known as the "rim wave" and is generated in front of the ejecta curtain. The second one is linked to the late modification stage of the impact and results from the collapsing cavity of water. We designate this wave as "collapse wave". The "rim wave" and "collapse wave" are able to propagate over long distances, without a significant loss of wave amplitude. Corresponding to the amplitudes, the waves have a potentially large influence on the coastal areas. Run-up distance and run-up height can be used as parameters for describing this influence. We are utilizing a multimaterial hydrocode (SALE) to simulate the generation of tsunami waves. The propagation of the waves is based on the non-linear shallow water theory, because tsunami waves are defined to be long waves. The position of the coast line varies according to the tsunami run-up and is implemented with open boundary conditions. We show with our investigations (1) the generation of tsunami waves due to shallow water impacts, (2) wave damping during propagation, and (3) the influence of the "rim wave" and the "collapse wave" on the coastal areas. Here, we present our first results from numerical modeling of tsunami waves owing to a Chicxulub sized impactor. The characteristics of the “rim wave” depend on the size of the bolide and the water depth. However, the amplitude and velocity of the “collapse wave” is only determined by the water depth in the impact area. The numerical modeling of the tsunami propagation and run-up is calculated along a section from the impact point towards to the west and gives the moderate damping of both waves and the run-up on the coastal area. As a first approximation, the bathymetric data, used in the wave propagation and run-up, correspond to a linearized bathymetry of the Recent Gulf of Mexico. The linearized bathymetry allows to study the influence of the bathymetry on wave propagation and run-up. Additionally, we give preliminary results of the implementation of the two-dimensional propagation and run-up model for arbitrary bathymetries. The two-dimensional wave propagation model will enable us to more realistically asses the influence of the impact-related tsunamis on the coasts around the Gulf of Mexico due to the Chicxulub impact event.

Developing Tsunami Evacuation Plans, Maps, And Procedures: Pilot Project in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcos, N. P.; Kong, L. S. L.; Arcas, D.; Aliaga, B.; Coetzee, D.; Leonard, J.

2015-12-01

In the End-to-End tsunami warning chain, once a forecast is provided and a warning alert issued, communities must know what to do and where to go. The 'where to' answer would be reliable and practical community-level tsunami evacuation maps. Following the Exercise Pacific Wave 2011, a questionnaire was sent to the 46 Member States of Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS). The results revealed over 42 percent of Member States lacked tsunami mass coastal evacuation plans. Additionally, a significant gap in mapping was exposed as over 55 percent of Member States lacked tsunami evacuation maps, routes, signs and assembly points. Thereby, a significant portion of countries in the Pacific lack appropriate tsunami planning and mapping for their at-risk coastal communities. While a variety of tools exist to establish tsunami inundation areas, these are inconsistent while a methodology has not been developed to assist countries develop tsunami evacuation maps, plans, and procedures. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) and partners is leading a Pilot Project in Honduras demonstrating that globally standardized tools and methodologies can be applied by a country, with minimal tsunami warning and mitigation resources, towards the determination of tsunami inundation areas and subsequently community-owned tsunami evacuation maps and plans for at-risk communities. The Pilot involves a 1- to 2-year long process centered on a series of linked tsunami training workshops on: evacuation planning, evacuation map development, inundation modeling and map creation, tsunami warning & emergency response Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and conducting tsunami exercises (including evacuation). The Pilot's completion is capped with a UNESCO/IOC document so that other countries can replicate the process in their tsunami-prone communities.

Earthquake and Tsunami booklet based on two Indonesia earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.

2014-12-01

Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.

Preliminary Hazard Assessment for Tectonic Tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, B.; Bayazitoglu, O.; Sharghi vand, N.; Kanoglu, U.

2017-12-01

There are many critical industrial facilities such as energy production units and energy transmission lines along the southeast coast of Turkey. This region is also active on tourism, and agriculture and aquaculture production. There are active faults in the region, i.e. the Cyprus Fault, which extends along the Mediterranean basin in the east-west direction and connects to the Hellenic Arc. Both the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc are seismologically active and are capable of generating earthquakes with tsunamigenic potential. Even a small tsunami in the region could cause confusion as shown by the recent 21 July 2017 earthquake of Mw 6.6, which occurred in the Aegean Sea, between Bodrum, Turkey and Kos Island, Greece since region is not prepared for such an event. Moreover, the Mediterranean Sea is one of the most vulnerable regions against sea level rise due to global warming, according to the 5th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For these reasons, a marine hazard such as a tsunami can cause much worse damage than expected in the region (Kanoglu et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 2015). Hence, tsunami hazard assessment is required for the region. In this study, we first characterize earthquakes which have potential to generate a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Such study is a prerequisite for regional tsunami mitigation studies. For fast and timely predictions, tsunami warning systems usually employ databases that store pre-computed tsunami propagation resulting from hypothetical earthquakes with pre-defined parameters. These pre-defined sources are called tsunami unit sources and they are linearly superposed to mimic a real event, since wave propagation is linear offshore. After investigating historical earthquakes along the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc, we identified tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and proposed tsunami unit sources for the region. We used the tsunami numerical model MOST (Titov et al., J. Waterw. Port Coastal Ocean Eng. 142(6), 2016) to numerically solve the nonlinear shallow water-wave equations for calculating offshore wave propagation, shoreline wave heights, and inundation depths through its interface ComMIT (Titov et al., Pure Appl. Geophys. 168(11), 2011) and generated inundation map for one town in the southeast coast of Turkey.

Source Mechanism and Near-field Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Y.; Cheung, K.; Lay, T.

2011-12-01

The Tohoku-oki great earthquake ruptured the megathrust fault offshore of Miyagi and Fukushima in Northeast Honshu with moment magnitude of Mw 9.0 on March 11, 2011, and generated strong shaking across the region. The resulting tsunami devastated the northeastern Japan coasts and damaged coastal infrastructure across the Pacific. The extensive global seismic networks, dense geodetic instruments, well-positioned buoys and wave gauges, and comprehensive runup records along the northeast Japan coasts provide datasets of unprecedented quality and coverage for investigation of the tsunami source mechanism and near-field wave characteristics. Our finite-source model reconstructs detailed source rupture processes by inversion of teleseismic P waves recorded around the globe. The finite-source solution is validated through comparison with the static displacements recoded at the ARIA (JPL-GSI) GPS stations and models obtained by inversion of high-rate GPS observations. The rupture model has two primary slip regions, near the hypocenter and along the trench; the maximum slip is about 60 m near the trench. Together with the low rupture velocity, the Tohoku-oki event has characteristics in common with tsunami earthquakes, although it ruptured across the entire megathrust. Superposition of the deformation of the subfaults from the planar fault model according to their rupture initiation and rise times specifies the seafloor vertical displacement and velocity for tsunami modeling. We reconstruct the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from the time histories of the seafloor deformation using the dispersive long-wave model NEOWAVE (Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs). The computed results are compared with data from six GPS gauges and three wave gauges near the source at 120~200-m and 50-m water depth, as well as DART buoys positioned across the Pacific. The shock-capturing model reproduces near-shore tsunami bores and the runup data gathered by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group. Spectral analysis of the computed surface elevation reveals a series of resonance modes and areas prone to tsunami hazards. This case study improves our understanding of near-field tsunami waves and validates the modeling capability to predict their impacts for hazard mitigation and emergency management.

Design and Implementation of a C++ Software Package to scan for and parse Tsunami Messages issued by the Tsunami Warning Centers for Operational use at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardina, V.

2012-12-01

The US Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) have traditionally generated their tsunami message products primarily as blocks of text then tagged with headers that identify them on each particular communications' (comms) circuit. Each warning center has a primary area of responsibility (AOR) within which it has an authoritative role regarding parameters such as earthquake location and magnitude. This means that when a major tsunamigenic event occurs the other warning centers need to quickly access the earthquake parameters issued by the authoritative warning center before issuing their message products intended for customers in their own AOR. Thus, within the operational context of the TWCs the scientists on duty have an operational need to access the information contained in the message products issued by other warning centers as quickly as possible. As a solution to this operational problem we designed and implemented a C++ software package that allows scanning for and parsing the entire suite of tsunami message products issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The scanning and parsing classes composing the resulting C++ software package allow parsing both non-official message products(observatory messages) routinely issued by the TWCs, and all official tsunami message products such as tsunami advisories, watches, and warnings. This software package currently allows scientists on duty at the PTWC to automatically retrieve the parameters contained in tsunami messages issued by WCATWC, JMA, or PTWC itself. Extension of the capabilities of the classes composing the software package would make it possible to generate XML and CAP compliant versions of the TWCs' message products until new messaging software natively adds this capabilities. Customers who receive the TWCs' tsunami message products could also use the package to automatically retrieve information from messages sent via any text-based communications' circuit currently used by the TWCs to disseminate their tsunami message products.

A method to estimate expected fatalities and economic loss of buildings in an urban environment as a step toward tsunami risk assessment: an application to the city of Siracusa, Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Accorsi, Eleonora; Tinti, Stefano

2016-04-01

Siracusa, an important city of the south-east Sicily, is located in an area highly exposed to the danger of tsunami, local and remote. Among the many events that affected this area those with a major effect are the AD 365 tsunami generated by an earthquake in the Western Hellenic Arc, the event of 11 January 1693, following an earthquake in the area of Augusta, and the tsunami of 28 December 1908 generated in the Messina strait. The aim of this study is to evaluate the number of exposed people and of fatalities as well as the type of damage to constructions and the associated loss of economic value in case of a tsunami, based on a simple tsunami scenario, i.e. on assuming a uniform inundation level of 5 m. This figure is considered appropriate for this preliminary tsunami loss analysis since it is compatible with historical tsunami observations and is also supported by recent tsunami hazard studies carried out for this area (Armigliato et al., 2015). The main physical tsunami parameter used in computations is the water column, which is merely the difference between the assumed inundation level and the topographic altitude. We use numerical geo-referenced 1:2000 maps providing a database of constructions in the area of Siracusa together with data from national and local statistical institutions to make estimates on the number and type of buildings and on the number of people that may be found in the inundation area in different periods of the year, discriminating between residents and tourists. Using a variant of the Terrier et al. (2012) table and tsunami mortality curves proposed by Koshimura et al. (2009) we are able to estimate expected fatalities with tsunami inundation reaching at most the first floor of buildings. We calculate economic loss by taking into account both residential buildings and commercial-industrial structures and data from the real estate market. This study is funded by the EU Project ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe", Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3)

Tsunami Hazard in La Réunion Island (SW Indian Ocean): Scenario-Based Numerical Modelling on Vulnerable Coastal Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allgeyer, S.; Quentel, É.; Hébert, H.; Gailler, A.; Loevenbruck, A.

2017-08-01

Several major tsunamis have affected the southwest Indian Ocean area since the 2004 Sumatra event, and some of them (2005, 2006, 2007 and 2010) have hit La Réunion Island in the southwest Indian Ocean. However, tsunami hazard is not well defined for La Réunion Island where vulnerable coastlines can be exposed. This study offers a first tsunami hazard assesment for La Réunion Island. We first review the historical tsunami observations made on the coastlines, where high tsunami waves (2-3 m) have been reported on the western coast, especially during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Numerical models of historical scenarios yield results consistent with available observations on the coastal sites (the harbours of La Pointe des Galets and Saint-Paul). The 1833 Pagai earthquake and tsunami can be considered as the worst-case historical scenario for this area. In a second step, we assess the tsunami exposure by covering the major subduction zones with syntethic events of constant magnitude (8.7, 9.0 and 9.3). The aggregation of magnitude 8.7 scenarios all generate strong currents in the harbours (3-7 m s^{-1}) and about 2 m of tsunami maximum height without significant inundation. The analysis of the magnitude 9.0 events confirms that the main commercial harbour (Port Est) is more vulnerable than Port Ouest and that flooding in Saint-Paul is limited to the beach area and the river mouth. Finally, the magnitude 9.3 scenarios show limited inundations close to the beach and in the riverbed in Saint-Paul. More generally, the results confirm that for La Runion, the Sumatra subduction zone is the most threatening non-local source area for tsunami generation. This study also shows that far-field coastal sites should be prepared for tsunami hazard and that further work is needed to improve operational warning procedures. Forecast methods should be developed to provide tools to enable the authorities to anticipate the local effects of tsunamis and to evacuate the harbours in sufficient time when such an earthquake occurs.

Tsunami Wave Height Estimation from GPS-Derived Ionospheric Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, Virgile; Lognonné, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie; Coïsson, P.

2018-05-01

Large underwater earthquakes (Mw>7) can transmit part of their energy to the surrounding ocean through large seafloor motions, generating tsunamis that propagate over long distances. The forcing effect of tsunami waves on the atmosphere generates internal gravity waves that, when they reach the upper atmosphere, produce ionospheric perturbations. These perturbations are frequently observed in the total electron content (TEC) measured by multifrequency Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) such as GPS, GLONASS, and, in the future, Galileo. This paper describes the first inversion of the variation in sea level derived from GPS TEC data. We used a least squares inversion through a normal-mode summation modeling. This technique was applied to three tsunamis in far field associated to the 2012 Haida Gwaii, 2006 Kuril Islands, and 2011 Tohoku events and for Tohoku also in close field. With the exception of the Tohoku far-field case, for which the tsunami reconstruction by the TEC inversion is less efficient due to the ionospheric noise background associated to geomagnetic storm, which occurred on the earthquake day, we show that the peak-to-peak amplitude of the sea level variation inverted by this method can be compared to the tsunami wave height measured by a DART buoy with an error of less than 20%. This demonstrates that the inversion of TEC data with a tsunami normal-mode summation approach is able to estimate quite accurately the amplitude and waveform of the first tsunami arrival.

History of earthquakes and tsunamis along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust, with implications for tsunami hazards in the California Continental Borderland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Holly F.; von Huene, Roland E.; Wells, Ray E.; Scholl, David W.; Kirby, Stephen; Draut, Amy E.; Dumoulin, Julie A.; Dusel-Bacon, C.

2012-01-01

During the past several years, devastating tsunamis were generated along subduction zones in Indonesia, Chile, and most recently Japan. Both the Chile and Japan tsunamis traveled across the Pacific Ocean and caused localized damage at several coastal areas in California. The question remains as to whether coastal California, in particular the California Continental Borderland, is vulnerable to more extensive damage from a far-field tsunami sourced along a Pacific subduction zone. Assuming that the coast of California is at risk from a far-field tsunami, its coastline is most exposed to a trans-Pacific tsunami generated along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone. We present the background geologic constraints that could control a possible giant (Mw ~9) earthquake sourced along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust. Previous great earthquakes (Mw ~8) in 1788, 1938, and 1946 ruptured single segments of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust. However, in order to generate a giant earthquake, it is necessary to rupture through multiple segments of the megathrust. Potential barriers to a throughgoing rupture, such as high-relief fracture zones or ridges, are absent on the subducting Pacific Plate between the Fox and Semidi Islands. Possible asperities (areas on the megathrust that are locked and therefore subject to infrequent but large slip) are identified by patches of high moment release observed in the historical earthquake record, geodetic studies, and the location of forearc basin gravity lows. Global Positioning System (GPS) data indicate that some areas of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust, such as that beneath Sanak Island, are weakly coupled. We suggest that although these areas will have reduced slip during a giant earthquake, they are not really large enough to form a barrier to rupture. A key aspect in defining an earthquake source for tsunami generation is determining the possibility of significant slip on the updip end of the megathrust near the trench. Large slip on the updip part of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust is a viable possibility owing to the small frontal accretionary prism and the presence of arc basement relatively close to the trench along most of the megathrust.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.

2014-02-01

The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.

Can Asteroid Airbursts Cause Dangerous Tsunami?.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark B.

I have performed a series of high-resolution hydrocode simulations to generate “source functions” for tsunami simulations as part of a proof-of-principle effort to determine whether or not the downward momentum from an asteroid airburst can couple energy into a dangerous tsunami in deep water. My new CTH simulations show enhanced momentum multiplication relative to a nuclear explosion of the same yield. Extensive sensitivity and convergence analyses demonstrate that results are robust and repeatable for simulations with sufficiently high resolution using adaptive mesh refinement. I have provided surface overpressure and wind velocity fields to tsunami modelers to use as time-dependent boundarymore » conditions and to test the hypothesis that this mechanism can enhance the strength of the resulting shallow-water wave. The enhanced momentum result suggests that coupling from an over-water plume-forming airburst could be a more efficient tsunami source mechanism than a collapsing impact cavity or direct air blast alone, but not necessarily due to the originally-proposed mechanism. This result has significant implications for asteroid impact risk assessment and airburst-generated tsunami will be the focus of a NASA-sponsored workshop at the Ames Research Center next summer, with follow-on funding expected.« less

Lessons from the Tōhoku tsunami: A model for island avifauna conservation prioritization.

PubMed

Reynolds, Michelle H; Berkowitz, Paul; Klavitter, John L; Courtot, Karen N

2017-08-01

Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011) and its inundation extent across four Hawaiian Islands. We estimated short-term effects of sudden flooding to bird communities using spatially explicit data from Midway Atoll and Laysan Island, Hawai'i. We describe variation in species vulnerability based on breeding phenology, nesting habitat, and life history traits. The tsunami inundated 21%-100% of each island's area at Midway Atoll and Laysan Island. Procellariformes (albatrosses and petrels) chick and egg losses exceeded 258,500 at Midway Atoll while albatross chick losses at Laysan Island exceeded 21,400. The tsunami struck at night and during the peak of nesting for 14 colonial seabird species. Strongly philopatric Procellariformes were vulnerable to the tsunami. Nonmigratory, endemic, endangered Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ) were sensitive to ecosystem effects such as habitat changes and carcass-initiated epizootics of avian botulism, and its populations declined approximately 40% on both atolls post-tsunami. Catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands occurs periodically not only from tsunamis, but also from storm surge and rainfall; with sea-level rise, the frequency of sudden flooding events will likely increase. As invasive predators occupy habitat on higher elevation Hawaiian Islands and globally important avian populations are concentrated on low-lying islands, additional conservation strategies may be warranted to increase resilience of island biodiversity encountering tsunamis and rising sea levels.

Lessons from the Tōhoku tsunami: A model for island avifauna conservation prioritization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Klavitter, John; Courtot, Karen

2017-01-01

Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011) and its inundation extent across four Hawaiian Islands. We estimated short-term effects of sudden flooding to bird communities using spatially explicit data from Midway Atoll and Laysan Island, Hawai'i. We describe variation in species vulnerability based on breeding phenology, nesting habitat, and life history traits. The tsunami inundated 21%–100% of each island's area at Midway Atoll and Laysan Island. Procellariformes (albatrosses and petrels) chick and egg losses exceeded 258,500 at Midway Atoll while albatross chick losses at Laysan Island exceeded 21,400. The tsunami struck at night and during the peak of nesting for 14 colonial seabird species. Strongly philopatric Procellariformes were vulnerable to the tsunami. Nonmigratory, endemic, endangered Laysan Teal (Anas laysanensis) were sensitive to ecosystem effects such as habitat changes and carcass-initiated epizootics of avian botulism, and its populations declined approximately 40% on both atolls post-tsunami. Catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands occurs periodically not only from tsunamis, but also from storm surge and rainfall; with sea-level rise, the frequency of sudden flooding events will likely increase. As invasive predators occupy habitat on higher elevation Hawaiian Islands and globally important avian populations are concentrated on low-lying islands, additional conservation strategies may be warranted to increase resilience of island biodiversity encountering tsunamis and rising sea levels.

Mesoscale convective system surface pressure anomalies responsible for meteotsunamis along the U.S. East Coast on June 13th, 2013

PubMed Central

Wertman, Christina A.; Yablonsky, Richard M.; Shen, Yang; Merrill, John; Kincaid, Christopher R.; Pockalny, Robert A.

2014-01-01

Two destructive high-frequency sea level oscillation events occurred on June 13th, 2013 along the U.S. East Coast. Seafloor processes can be dismissed as the sources, as no concurrent offshore earthquakes or landslides were detected. Here, we present evidence that these tsunami-like events were generated by atmospheric mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) propagating from inland to offshore. The USArray Transportable Array inland and NOAA tide gauges along the coast recorded the pressure anomalies associated with the MCSs. Once offshore, the pressure anomalies generated shallow water waves, which were amplified by the resonance between the water column and atmospheric forcing. Analysis of the tidal data reveals that these waves reflected off the continental shelf break and reached the coast, where bathymetry and coastal geometry contributed to their hazard potential. This study demonstrates that monitoring MCS pressure anomalies in the interior of the U.S. provides important observations for early warnings of MCS-generated tsunamis. PMID:25420958

How much does geometry of seismic sources matter in tsunami modeling? A sensitivity analysis for the Calabrian subduction interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, R.; Maesano, F. E.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Scala, A.; Lorito, S.; Volpe, M.; Basili, R.

2017-12-01

The geometry of seismogenic sources could be one of the most important factors concurring to control the generation and the propagation of earthquake-generated tsunamis and their effects on the coasts. Since the majority of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes occur offshore, the corresponding faults are generally poorly constrained and, consequently, their geometry is often oversimplified as a planar fault. The rupture area of mega-thrust earthquakes in subduction zones, where most of the greatest tsunamis have occurred, extends for tens to hundreds of kilometers both down dip and along strike, and generally deviates from the planar geometry. Therefore, the larger the earthquake size is, the weaker the planar fault assumption become. In this work, we present a sensitivity analysis aimed to explore the effects on modeled tsunamis generated by seismic sources with different degrees of geometric complexities. We focused on the Calabrian subduction zone, located in the Mediterranean Sea, which is characterized by the convergence between the African and European plates, with rates of up to 5 mm/yr. This subduction zone has been considered to have generated some past large earthquakes and tsunamis, despite it shows only in-slab significant seismic activity below 40 km depth and no relevant seismicity in the shallower portion of the interface. Our analysis is performed by defining and modeling an exhaustive set of tsunami scenarios located in the Calabrian subduction and using different models of the subduction interface with increasing geometrical complexity, from a planar surface to a highly detailed 3D surface. The latter was obtained from the interpretation of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles coupled with the analysis of the seismicity distribution. The more relevant effects due to the inclusion of 3D complexities in the seismic source geometry are finally highlighted in terms of the resulting tsunami impact.

Tsunami potential assessment based on rupture zones, focal mechanisms and repeat times of strong earthquakes in the major Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agalos, Apostolos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Kijko, Andrzej; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Smit, Ansie; Triantafyllou, Ioanna

2016-04-01

In the major Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone, extended from Azores islands in the west to the easternmost Mediterranean Sea in the east, including the Marmara and Black Seas, a number of 22 tsunamigenic zones have been determined from historical and instrumental tsunami documentation. Although some tsunamis were produced by volcanic activity or landslides, the majority of them was generated by strong earthquakes. Since the generation of seismic tsunamis depends on several factors, like the earthquake size, focal depth and focal mechanism, the study of such parameters is of particular importance for the assessment of the potential for the generation of future tsunamis. However, one may not rule out the possibility for tsunami generation in areas outside of the 22 zones determined so far. For the Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone we have compiled a catalogue of strong, potentially tsunamigenic (focal depth less than 100 km) historical earthquakes from various data bases and other sources. The lateral areas of rupture zones of these earthquakes were determined. Rupture zone is the area where the strain after the earthquake has dropped substantially with respect the strain before the earthquake. Aftershock areas were assumed to determine areas of rupture zones for instrumental earthquakes. For historical earthquakes macroseismic criteria were used such as spots of higher-degree seismic intensity and of important ground failures. For the period of instrumental seismicity, focal mechanism solutions from CMT, EMMA and other data bases were selected for strong earthquakes. From the geographical distribution of seismic rupture zones and the corresponding focal mechanisms in the entire Atlantic-Mediterranean seismic fracture zone we determined potentially tsunamigenic zones regardless they are known to have produced seismic tsunamis in the past or not. An attempt has been made to calculate in each one of such zones the repeat times of strong earthquakes from earthquake catalogue data sets.

Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, Joern

2013-04-01

Tsunami-Earthquakes represent natural catastrophes threatening lives and well-being of societies in a solitary and unexpected extreme event as tragically demonstrated in Sumatra (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010), or Japan (2011). Both phenomena are consequences of the complex system of interactions of tectonic stress, fracture mechanics, rock friction, rupture dynamics, fault geometry, ocean bathymetry, and coastline geometry. The ASCETE project forms an interdisciplinary research consortium that couples the most advanced simulation technologies for earthquake rupture dynamics and tsunami propagation to understand the fundamental conditions of tsunami generation. We report on the latest research results in physics-based dynamic rupture and tsunami wave propagation simulation, using unstructured and adaptive meshes with continuous and discontinuous Galerkin discretization approaches. Coupling both simulation tools - the physics-based dynamic rupture simulation and the hydrodynamic tsunami wave propagation - will give us the possibility to conduct highly realistic studies of the interaction of rupture dynamics and tsunami impact characteristics.

Estimates of tsunami damage for Russian coast of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaytsev, Andrey; Yalciner, Ahmet; Pelinovsky, Efim

2010-05-01

The historic database of tsunamis in the Black Sea contains 20 - 30 events with different level of validity, and at least six events occurred in 20th century. Numerical modeling of the last historic events is performed in the framework of shallow-water theory with use of code NAMI-DANCE. The computed tide-gauge records in Russian coastal locations are in good agreement with instrumental data for the 1939 and 1966 tsunamis. The tsunami of the landslide origin occurred in Sochi in 1970 is modeled in the framework of the two-layer model realized in TUNAMI. Also, some hypothetic tsunamis generated in the open part of the Black Sea are computed and the distribution of the tsunami height along the Russian and Turkish coast ais found. In particular, the tsunami amplification near Sochi is highest to compare with other coastal locations on the Russian coast of Black Sea.

Tsunami mitigation by resonant triad interaction with acoustic-gravity waves.

PubMed

Kadri, Usama

2017-01-01

Tsunamis have been responsible for the loss of almost a half million lives, widespread long lasting destruction, profound environmental effects, and global financial crisis, within the last two decades. The main tsunami properties that determine the size of impact at the shoreline are its wavelength and amplitude in the ocean. Here, we show that it is in principle possible to reduce the amplitude of a tsunami, and redistribute its energy over a larger space, through forcing it to interact with resonating acoustic-gravity waves. In practice, generating the appropriate acoustic-gravity modes introduces serious challenges due to the high energy required for an effective interaction. However, if the findings are extended to realistic tsunami properties and geometries, we might be able to mitigate tsunamis and so save lives and properties. Moreover, such a mitigation technique would allow for the harnessing of the tsunami's energy.

Tsunami: ocean dynamo generator.

PubMed

Sugioka, Hiroko; Hamano, Yozo; Baba, Kiyoshi; Kasaya, Takafumi; Tada, Noriko; Suetsugu, Daisuke

2014-01-08

Secondary magnetic fields are induced by the flow of electrically conducting seawater through the Earth's primary magnetic field ('ocean dynamo effect'), and hence it has long been speculated that tsunami flows should produce measurable magnetic field perturbations, although the signal-to-noise ratio would be small because of the influence of the solar magnetic fields. Here, we report on the detection of deep-seafloor electromagnetic perturbations of 10-micron-order induced by a tsunami, which propagated through a seafloor electromagnetometer array network. The observed data extracted tsunami characteristics, including the direction and velocity of propagation as well as sea-level change, first to verify the induction theory. Presently, offshore observation systems for the early forecasting of tsunami are based on the sea-level measurement by seafloor pressure gauges. In terms of tsunami forecasting accuracy, the integration of vectored electromagnetic measurements into existing scalar observation systems would represent a substantial improvement in the performance of tsunami early-warning systems.

Integrating Caribbean Seismic and Tsunami Hazard into Public Policy and Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.

2012-12-01

The Caribbean has a long history of tsunamis and earthquakes. Over the past 500 years, more than 80 tsunamis have been documented in the region by the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Almost 90% of all these historical tsunamis have been associated with earthquakes. Just since 1842, 3510 lives have been lost to tsunamis; this is more than in the Northeastern Pacific for the same time period. With a population of almost 160 million and a heavy concentration of residents, tourists, businesses and critical infrastructure along the Caribbean shores (especially in the northern and eastern Caribbean), the risk to lives and livelihoods is greater than ever before. Most of the countries also have a very high exposure to earthquakes. Given the elevated vulnerability, it is imperative that government officials take steps to mitigate the potentially devastating effects of these events. Nevertheless, given the low frequency of high impact earthquakes and tsunamis, in comparison to hurricanes, combined with social and economic considerations, the needed investments are not made and disasters like the 2010 Haiti earthquake occur. In the absence of frequent significant events, an important driving force for public officials to take action, is the dissemination of scientific studies. When papers of this nature have been published and media advisories issued, public officials demonstrate heightened interest in the topic which in turn can lead to increased legislation and funding efforts. This is especially the case if the material can be easily understood by the stakeholders and there is a local contact. In addition, given the close link between earthquakes and tsunamis, in Puerto Rico alone, 50% of the high impact earthquakes have also generated destructive tsunamis, it is very important that earthquake and tsunami hazards studies demonstrate consistency. Traditionally in the region, earthquake and tsunami impacts have been considered independently in the emergency planning processes. For example, earthquake and tsunami exercises are conducted separately, without taking into consideration the compounding effects. Recognizing this deficiency, the UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) which was established in 2005, decided to include the tsunami and earthquake impacts for the upcoming March 20, 2013 regional CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX tsunami exercise. In addition to the tsunami wave heights predicted by the National Weather Service Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii, the USGS PAGER and SHAKE MAP results for the M8.5 scenario earthquake in the southern Caribbean were also integrated into the manual. Additionally, in recent catastrophic planning for Puerto Rico, FEMA did request the local researchers to determine both the earthquake and tsunami impacts for the same source. In the US, despite that the lead for earthquakes and tsunamis lies within two different agencies, USGS and NOAA/NWS, it has been very beneficial that the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program partnership includes both agencies. By working together, the seismic and tsunami communities can achieve an even better understanding of the hazards, but also foster more actions on behalf of government officials and the populations at risk.

Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Dailin; Becker, Nathan C.; Walsh, David; Fryer, Gerard J.; Weinstein, Stuart A.; McCreery, Charles S.; ,

2012-01-01

The April 11, 2012, magnitude 8.6 earthquake off the northern coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that was recorded at sea-level stations as far as 4800 km from the epicenter and at four ocean bottom pressure sensors (DARTs) in the Indian Ocean. The governments of India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Maldives issued tsunami warnings for their coastlines. The United States' Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) issued an Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Bulletin in its role as an Interim Service Provider for the region. Using an experimental real-time tsunami forecast model (RIFT), PTWC produced a series of tsunami forecasts during the event that were based on rapidly derived earthquake parameters, including initial location and Mwp magnitude estimates and the W-phase centroid moment tensor solutions (W-phase CMTs) obtained at PTWC and at the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). We discuss the real-time forecast methodology and how successive, real-time tsunami forecasts using the latest W-phase CMT solutions improved the accuracy of the forecast.

Landslide tsunami hazard in New South Wales, Australia: novel observations from 3D modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, Hannah; Clarke, Samantha; Hubble, Tom

2015-04-01

This paper examines the potential of tsunami inundation generated from two case study sites of submarine mass failures on the New South Wales coast of Australia. Two submarine mass failure events are investigated: the Bulli Slide and the Shovel Slide. Both slides are located approximately 65 km southeast of Sydney and 60 km east of the township of Wollongong. The Bulli Slide (~20 km3) and the Shovel Slide (7.97 km3) correspond to the two largest identified erosional surface submarine landslides scars of the NSW continental margin (Glenn et al. 2008; Clarke 2014) and represent examples of large to very large submarine landslide scars. The Shovel Slide is a moderately thick (80-165 m), moderately wide to wide (4.4 km) slide, and is located in 880 m water depth; and the Bulli Slide is an extremely thick (200-425 m), very wide (8.9 km) slide, and is located in 1500 m water depth. Previous work on the east Australian margin (Clarke et al., 2014) and elsewhere (Harbitz et al., 2013) suggests that submarine landslides similar to the Bulli Slide or the Shovel Slide are volumetrically large enough and occur at shallow enough water depths (400-2500 m) to generate substantial tsunamis that could cause widespread damage on the east Australian coast and threaten coastal communities (Burbidge et al. 2008; Clarke 2014; Talukder and Volker 2014). Currently, the tsunamogenic potential of these two slides has only been investigated using 2D modelling (Clarke 2014) and to date it has been difficult to establish the onshore tsunami surge characteristics for the submarine landslides with certainty. To address this knowledge gap, the forecast inundation as a result of these two mass failure events was investigated using a three-dimensional model (ANUGA) that predicts water flow resulting from natural hazard events such as tsunami (Nielsen et al., 2005). The ANUGA model solves the two-dimensional shallow water wave equations and accurately models the process of wetting and drying thus making it ideal for simulating inundation due to tsunami. The model generates a surface wave profile based on the dimensions of the submarine mass failure event using the method of Ward et al. (2005). Inundation maps are shown for these two slides and sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the characteristics of the slides that are most influential on inundation areas and depths.

Tsunami runup and tide-gauge observations from the 14 November 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, William; Clark, Kate; King, Darren N.; Borrero, Jose; Howarth, Jamie; Lane, Emily M.; Goring, Derek; Goff, James; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Williams, James; Reid, Catherine; Whittaker, Colin; Mueller, Christof; Williams, Shaun; Hughes, Matthew W.; Hoyle, Jo; Bind, Jochen; Strong, Delia; Litchfield, Nicola; Benson, Adrian

2017-07-01

The 2016 M w 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake was one of the largest earthquakes in New Zealand's historical record, and it generated the most significant local source tsunami to affect New Zealand since 1947. There are many unusual features of this earthquake from a tsunami perspective: the epicentre was well inland of the coast, multiple faults were involved in the rupture, and the greatest tsunami damage to residential property was far from the source. In this paper, we summarise the tectonic setting and the historical and geological evidence for past tsunamis on this coast, then present tsunami tide gauge and runup field observations of the tsunami that followed the Kaikōura earthquake. For the size of the tsunami, as inferred from the measured heights, the impact of this event was relatively modest, and we discuss the reasons for this which include: the state of the tide at the time of the earthquake, the degree of co-seismic uplift, and the nature of the coastal environment in the tsunami source region.

Post-eruptive flooding of Santorini caldera and implications for tsunami generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomikou, Paraskevi; Druitt, Tim; Hübscher, Christian; Mather, Tamsin; Paulatto, Michele; Kalnins, Lara; Kelfoun, Karim; Papanikolaou, Dimitris; Bejelou, Konstantina; Lampridou, Danai; Pyle, David; Carey, Steven; Watts, Anthony; Weiß, Benedikt; Parks, Michelle

2017-04-01

Caldera-forming eruptions of island volcanoes generate tsunamis by the interaction of different eruptive phenomena with the sea. Such tsunamis are a major hazard, but forward models of their impacts are limited by poor understanding of source mechanisms. The eruption of Santorini 3600 years ago was one of the largest of eruptions known worldwide from the past 10,000 years - and was at least 3 times larger than the catastrophic eruption of Krakatoa. This huge eruption evacuated large volumes of magma, causing collapse of the large caldera, which is now filled with seawater. Tsunamis from this eruption have been proposed to have played a role in the demise of the Minoan culture across the southern Aegean, through damage to coastal towns, harbors, shipping and maritime trade. Before the eruption, there was an older caldera in the northern part of Santorini, partly filled with a shallow lagoon. In our study, we present bathymetric and seismic evidence showing that the caldera was not open to the sea during the main phase of the eruption, but was flooded once the eruption had finished. Following subsidence of the caldera floor, rapid inflow of seawater and landslides cut a deep 2.0-2.5 km3 submarine channel into the northern flank of the caldera wall. Hydrodynamic modelling indicates that the caldera was flooded through this breach in less than a couple of days. It was previously proposed that collapse of the caldera could have led to the formation of a major tsunami; but this is ruled out by our new evidence. Any tsunami's generated were most likely caused by entry of pyroclastic flows into the sea, combined with slumping of submarine pyroclastic accumulations. This idea is consistent with previous assertions that pyroclastic flows were the main cause of tsunamis at Krakatau.

Correlation Equation of Fault Size, Moment Magnitude, and Height of Tsunami Case Study: Historical Tsunami Database in Sulawesi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julius, Musa, Admiral; Pribadi, Sugeng; Muzli, Muzli

2018-03-01

Sulawesi, one of the biggest island in Indonesia, located on the convergence of two macro plate that is Eurasia and Pacific. NOAA and Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory show more than 20 tsunami data recorded in Sulawesi since 1820. Based on this data, determination of correlation between tsunami and earthquake parameter need to be done to proved all event in the past. Complete data of magnitudes, fault sizes and tsunami heights on this study sourced from NOAA and Novosibirsk Tsunami database, completed with Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) catalog. This study aims to find correlation between moment magnitude, fault size and tsunami height by simple regression. The step of this research are data collecting, processing, and regression analysis. Result shows moment magnitude, fault size and tsunami heights strongly correlated. This analysis is enough to proved the accuracy of historical tsunami database in Sulawesi on NOAA, Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory and PTWC.

Amplification of drawdown and runup over Hawaii's insular shelves by tsunami N-waves from mega Aleutian earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Yefei; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2018-04-01

The latest tsunami evacuation maps of Hawaii include an extreme scenario triggered by an Mw 9.3 Aleutian earthquake with large near-trench rupture. The tectonic plate motion produces concentrated seafloor uplift toward the deepest part of the trench generating a tsunami with strong non-hydrostatic characters. A parametric study shows the skewed seafloor uplift produces a dispersive leading crest followed by a prominent trough in the form of an N-wave. The trough maintains its depth across the ocean in the absence of side lobes and dispersion. Shifting of the uplift toward the trench tends to deepen the trough, but has diminishing effects on the wave crest away from the source. While the attenuated leading crest produces relatively moderate runup on north-facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands, with matching of the N-wave and shelf resonance periods, the trough produces an impulsive drawdown followed by an energetic upswing with unprecedented runup for a far-field tsunami. A set of control computations without dispersion reaffirms that a non-hydrostatic model is essential to account for these complex wave processes from the source to the shore. This case study highlights the unique tsunami hazards posed by the Aleutians to Hawaii and the role of wave troughs in delineating the impacts for hazard assessment and engineering design.

Near-Field Tsunami Models with Rapid Earthquake Source Inversions from Land and Ocean-Based Observations: The Potential for Forecast and Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, D.; Bock, Y.; Crowell, B. W.; Haase, J. S.

2013-12-01

Computation of predicted tsunami wave heights and runup in the regions adjacent to large earthquakes immediately after rupture initiation remains a challenging problem. Limitations of traditional seismological instrumentation in the near field which cannot be objectively employed for real-time inversions and the non-unique source inversion results are a major concern for tsunami modelers. Employing near-field seismic, GPS and wave gauge data from the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we test the capacity of static finite fault slip models obtained from newly developed algorithms to produce reliable tsunami forecasts. First we demonstrate the ability of seismogeodetic source models determined from combined land-based GPS and strong motion seismometers to forecast near-source tsunamis in ~3 minutes after earthquake origin time (OT). We show that these models, based on land-borne sensors only tend to underestimate the tsunami but are good enough to provide a realistic first warning. We then demonstrate that rapid ingestion of offshore shallow water (100 - 1000 m) wave gauge data significantly improves the model forecasts and possible warnings. We ingest data from 2 near-source ocean-bottom pressure sensors and 6 GPS buoys into the earthquake source inversion process. Tsunami Green functions (tGFs) are generated using the GeoClaw package, a benchmarked finite volume code with adaptive mesh refinement. These tGFs are used for a joint inversion with the land-based data and substantially improve the earthquake source and tsunami forecast. Model skill is assessed by detailed comparisons of the simulation output to 2000+ tsunami runup survey measurements collected after the event. We update the source model and tsunami forecast and warning at 10 min intervals. We show that by 20 min after OT the tsunami is well-predicted with a high variance reduction to the survey data and by ~30 minutes a model that can be considered final, since little changed is observed afterwards, is achieved. This is an indirect approach to tsunami warning, it relies on automatic determination of the earthquake source prior to tsunami simulation. It is more robust than ad-hoc approaches because it relies on computation of a finite-extent centroid moment tensor to objectively determine the style of faulting and the fault plane geometry on which to launch the heterogeneous static slip inversion. Operator interaction and physical assumptions are minimal. Thus, the approach can provide the initial conditions for tsunami simulation (seafloor motion) irrespective of the type of earthquake source and relies heavily on oceanic wave gauge measurements for source determination. It reliably distinguishes among strike-slip, normal and thrust faulting events, all of which have been observed recently to occur in subduction zones and pose distinct tsunami hazards.

GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

2011-03-01

On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

Comparison of the seafloor displacement from uniform and non-uniform slip models on tsunami simulation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulutas, Ergin

2013-01-01

The numerical simulations of recent tsunami caused by 11 March 2011 off-shore Pacific coast of Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.0) using diverse co-seismic source models have been performed. Co-seismic source models proposed by various observational agencies and scholars are further used to elucidate the effects of uniform and non-uniform slip models on tsunami generation and propagation stages. Non-linear shallow water equations are solved with a finite difference scheme, using a computational grid with different cell sizes over GEBCO30 bathymetry data. Overall results obtained and reported by various tsunami simulation models are compared together with the available real-time kinematic global positioning system (RTK-GPS) buoys, cabled deep ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPG), and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoys. The purpose of this study is to provide a brief overview of major differences between point-source and finite-fault methodologies on generation and simulation of tsunamis. Tests of the assumptions of uniform and non-uniform slip models designate that the average uniform slip models may be used for the tsunami simulations off-shore, and far from the source region. Nevertheless, the heterogeneities of the slip distribution within the fault plane are substantial for the wave amplitude in the near field which should be investigated further.

Far-field tsunami magnitude determined from ocean-bottom pressure gauge data around Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baba, T.; Hirata, K.; Kaneda, Y.

2003-12-01

\\hspace*{3mm}Tsunami magnitude is the most fundamental parameter to scale tsunamigenic earthquakes. According to Abe (1979), the tsunami magnitude, Mt, is empirically related to the crest to trough amplitude, H, of the far-field tsunami wave in meters (Mt = logH + 9.1). Here we investigate the far-field tsunami magnitude using ocean-bottom pressure gauge data. The recent ocean-bottom pressure measurements provide more precise tsunami data with a high signal-to-noise ratio. \\hspace*{3mm}Japan Marine Science and Technology Center is monitoring ocean bottom pressure fluctuations using two submarine cables of depths of 1500 - 2400 m. These geophysical observatory systems are located off Cape Muroto, Southwest Japan, and off Hokkaido, Northern Japan. The ocean-bottom pressure data recorded with the Muroto and Hokkaido systems have been collected continuously since March, 1997 and October, 1999, respectively. \\hspace*{3mm}Over the period from March 1997 to June 2003, we have observed four far-field tsunami signals, generated by earthquakes, on ocean-bottom pressure records. These far-field tsunamis were generated by the 1998 Papua New Guinea eq. (Mw 7.0), 1999 Vanuatu eq. (Mw 7.2), 2001 Peru eq. (Mw 8.4) and 2002 Papua New Guinea eq. (Mw 7.6). Maximum amplitude of about 30 mm was recorded by the tsunami from the 2001 Peru earthquake. \\hspace*{3mm}Direct application of the Abe's empirical relation to ocean-bottom pressure gauge data underestimates tsunami magnitudes by about an order of magnitude. This is because the Abe's empirical relation was derived only from tsunami amplitudes with coastal tide gauges where tsunami is amplified by the shoaling of topography and the reflection at the coastline. However, these effects do not work for offshore tsunami in deep oceans. In general, amplification due to shoaling near the coastline is governed by the Green's Law, in which the tsunami amplitude is proportional to h-1/4, where h is the water depth. Wave amplitude also is doubled by reflection at the fixed edge (coastline). Hence, we introduce a water-depth term and a reflection coefficient of 2 in the original Abe_fs empirical relation to correct tsunami amplitude for open oceans and obtain Mt = log(2H/h-1/4) + 9.1, where h is the depth of the ocean bottom pressure gage. The modified empirical relation produces tsunami magnitudes close to those determined using tide gauges.

USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Potential Impacts to the U.S. West Coast from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Jones, L. M.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J. T.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L. A.; Hansen, R. A.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, E.; Knight, W. R.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K. M.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E. N.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V. V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2012-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project, in collaboration with the California Geological Survey, the California Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other agencies and institutions are developing a Tsunami Scenario to describe in detail the impacts of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical, but realistic, M9 earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula. The overarching objective of SAFRR and its predecessor, the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, is to help communities reduce losses from natural disasters. As requested by emergency managers and other community partners, a primary approach has been comprehensive, scientifically credible scenarios that start with a model of a geologic event and extend through estimates of damage, casualties, and societal consequences. The first product was the ShakeOut scenario, addressing a hypothetical earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, that spawned the successful Great California ShakeOut, an annual event and the nation's largest emergency preparedness exercise. That was followed by the ARkStorm scenario, which addresses California winter storms that surpass hurricanes in their destructive potential. Some of the Tsunami Scenario's goals include developing advanced models of currents and inundation for the event; spurring research related to Alaskan earthquake sources; engaging the port and harbor decision makers; understanding the economic impacts to local, regional and national economy in both the short and long term; understanding the ecological, environmental, and societal impacts of coastal inundation; and creating enhanced communication products for decision-making before, during, and after a tsunami event. The state of California, through CGS and Cal EMA, is using the Tsunami Scenario as an opportunity to evaluate policies regarding tsunami impact. The scenario will serve as a long-lasting resource to teach preparedness and inform decision makers. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario is organized by a coordinating committee with several working groups, including Earthquake Source, Paleotsunami/Geology Field Work, Tsunami Modeling, Engineering and Physical Impacts, Ecological Impacts, Emergency Management and Education, Social Vulnerability, Economic and Business Impacts, and Policy. In addition, the tsunami scenario process is being assessed and evaluated by researchers from the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The source event, defined by the USGS' Tsunami Source Working Group, is an earthquake similar to the 2011 Tohoku event, but set in the Semidi subduction sector, between Kodiak Island and the Shumagin Islands off the Pacific coast of the Alaska Peninsula. The Semidi sector is probably late in its earthquake cycle and comparisons of the geology and tectonic settings between Tohoku and the Semidi sector suggest that this location is appropriate. Tsunami modeling and inundation results have been generated for many areas along the California coast and elsewhere, including current velocity modeling for the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and San Diego, and Ventura Harbor. Work on impacts to Alaska and Hawaii will follow. Note: Costas Synolakis (USC) is also an author of this abstract.

Near Field Modeling for the Maule Tsunami from DART, GPS and Finite Fault Solutions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcas, D.; Chamberlin, C.; Lagos, M.; Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Tang, L.; Wei, Y.

2010-12-01

The earthquake and tsunami of February, 27, 2010 in central Chile has rekindled an interest in developing techniques to predict the impact of near field tsunamis along the Chilean coastline. Following the earthquake, several initiatives were proposed to increase the density of seismic, pressure and motion sensors along the South American trench, in order to provide field data that could be used to estimate tsunami impact on the coast. However, the precise use of those data in the elaboration of a quantitative assessment of coastal tsunami damage has not been clarified. The present work makes use of seismic, Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART®) systems, and GPS measurements obtained during the Maule earthquake to initiate a number of tsunami inundation models along the rupture area by expressing different versions of the seismic crustal deformation in terms of NOAA’s tsunami unit source functions. Translation of all available real-time data into a feasible tsunami source is essential in near-field tsunami impact prediction in which an impact assessment must be generated under very stringent time constraints. Inundation results from each different source are then contrasted with field and tide gauge data by comparing arrival time, maximum wave height, maximum inundation and tsunami decay rate, using field data collected by the authors.

Global Tsunami Warning System Development Since 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.; McCreery, C.; Hirshorn, B. F.

2014-12-01

The 9.1 Mw Great Sumatra Earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, generated the most destructive tsunami in history killing 227,000 people along Indian Ocean coastlines and was recorded by sea-level instruments world-wide. This tragedy showed the Indian Ocean needed a tsunami warning system to prevent another tragedy on this scale. The Great Sumatra Earthquake also highlighted the need for tsunami warning systems in other ocean basins. Instruments for recording earthquakes and sea-level data useful for tsunami monitoring did not exist outside of the Pacific Ocean in 2004. Seismometers were few in number, and even fewer were high-quality long period broadband instruments. Nor was much of their data made available to the US tsunami warning centers (TWCs). In 2004 the US TWCs relied exclusively on instrumentation provided and maintained by IRIS and the USGS for areas outside of the Pacific.Since 2004, the US TWCs and their partners have made substantial improvements to seismic and sea-level monitoring networks with the addition of new and better instruments, densification of existing networks, better communications infrastructure, and improved data sharing among tsunami warning centers. In particular, the number of sea-level stations transmitting data in near real-time and the amount of seismic data available to the tsunami warning centers has more than tripled. The DART network that consisted of a half-dozen Pacific stations in 2004 now totals nearly 60 stations worldwide. Earthquake and tsunami science has progressed as well. It took nearly three weeks to obtain the first reliable estimates of the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake's magnitude. Today, thanks to improved seismic networks and modern computing power, TWCs use the W-phase seismic moment method to determine accurate earthquake magnitudes and focal mechanisms for great earthquakes within 25 minutes. TWC scientists have also leveraged these modern computers to generate tsunami forecasts in a matter of minutes.Progress towards a global tsunami warning system has been substantial and today fully-functioning TWCs protect most of the world's coastlines. These improvements have also led to a substantial reduction of time required by the TWCs to detect, locate, and assess the tsunami threat from earthquakes occurring worldwide.

Hydraulic experiment on tsunami sand deposits relating with grain size distribution and magnitude of incident waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, A.; Takahashi, T.; Harada, K.; Nojima, K.

2016-12-01

A huge earthquake occurred off the Tohoku district in Japan on March 11th, 2011. A massive tsunami generated by the earthquake attacked coastal areas and caused serious damage. The tsunami disaster requires to reconsider tsunami measures in the Nankai Trough. Many of the measures are based on histories of large earthquakes and tsunamis. Because they are low frequency disasters and their historical documents are limited, tsunami sand deposits have been expected to analyze paleotsunamis. Tsunami sand deposits, however, are only used to confirm the fact of tsunamis and to determine the relative magnitudes. The thickness of sand layer and the grain size may be clues to estimate the tsunami force. Further, it could reveal the tsunami source. These results are also useful to improve the present tsunami measures. The objective of this study is to investigate the formation mechanism of tsunami sand deposits by hydraulic experiment. A two-dimensional water channel consisted of a wave maker, a flat section and a slope section. A movable bed section with various grain sizes and distribution of sand was set at the end of flat section. Bore waves of several heights transported the sand to the slope section by run-up. Water surface elevation and velocity were measured at several points. Tsunami sand deposit distribution was also measured along the slope section. The experimental result showed that the amount of tsunami sand deposit was relating with the grain size distribution and the magnitude of incident waves. Further, the number of incident waves affected the profile of tsunami sand deposits.

Ionospheric Method of Detecting Tsunami-Generating Earthquakes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Najita, Kazutoshi; Yuen, Paul C.

1978-01-01

Reviews the earthquake phenomenon and its possible relation to ionospheric disturbances. Discusses the basic physical principles involved and the methods upon which instrumentation is being developed for possible use in a tsunami disaster warning system. (GA)

Initial tsunami signals in the lithosphere-ocean-atmosphere medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novik, O.; Ershov, S.; Mikhaylovskaya, I.

Satellite and ground based instrumentations for monitoring of dynamical processes under the Ocean floor 3 4 of the Earth surface and resulting catastrophic events should be adapted to unknown physical nature of transformation of the oceanic lithosphere s energy of seismogenic deformations into measurable acoustic electromagnetic EM temperature and hydrodynamic tsunami waves To describe the initial up to a tsunami wave far from a shore stage of this transformation and to understand mechanism of EM signals arising above the Ocean during seismic activation we formulate a nonlinear mathematical model of seismo-hydro-EM geophysical field interaction in the lithosphere-Ocean-atmosphere medium from the upper mantle under the Ocean up to the ionosphere domain D The model is based on the theory of elasticity electrodynamics fluid dynamics thermodynamics and geophysical data On the basis of this model and its mathematical investigation we calculate generation and propagation of different see above waves in the basin of a model marginal sea the data on the central part of the Sea of Japan were used At the moment t 0 the dynamic interaction process is supposed to be caused by weak may be precursory sub-vertical elastic displacements with the amplitude duration and main frequency of the order of a few cm sec and tenth of Hz respectively at the depth of 37 km under the sea level i e in the upper mantle Other seismic excitations may be considered as well The lithosphere EM signal is generated in the upper mantle conductive

Spatiotemporal Visualization of Tsunami Waves Using Kml on Google Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, H.; Delavar, M. R.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

2017-09-01

Disaster risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability. Risk is defined as the expected losses, including lives, personal injuries, property damages, and economic disruptions, due to a particular hazard for a given area and time period. Risk assessment is one of the key elements of a natural disaster management strategy as it allows for better disaster mitigation and preparation. It provides input for informed decision making, and increases risk awareness among decision makers and other stakeholders. Virtual globes such as Google Earth can be used as a visualization tool. Proper spatiotemporal graphical representations of the concerned risk significantly reduces the amount of effort to visualize the impact of the risk and improves the efficiency of the decision-making process to mitigate the impact of the risk. The spatiotemporal visualization of tsunami waves for disaster management process is an attractive topic in geosciences to assist investigation of areas at tsunami risk. In this paper, a method for coupling virtual globes with tsunami wave arrival time models is presented. In this process we have shown 2D+Time of tsunami waves for propagation and inundation of tsunami waves, both coastal line deformation, and the flooded areas. In addition, the worst case scenario of tsunami on Chabahar port derived from tsunami modelling is also presented using KML on google earth.

Simulation of Earthquake-Generated Sea-Surface Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogl, Chris; Leveque, Randy

2016-11-01

Earthquake-generated tsunamis can carry with them a powerful, destructive force. One of the most well-known, recent examples is the tsunami generated by the Tohoku earthquake, which was responsible for the nuclear disaster in Fukushima. Tsunami simulation and forecasting, a necessary element of emergency procedure planning and execution, is typically done using the shallow-water equations. A typical initial condition is that using the Okada solution for a homogeneous, elastic half-space. This work focuses on simulating earthquake-generated sea-surface deformations that are more true to the physics of the materials involved. In particular, a water layer is added on top of the half-space that models the seabed. Sea-surface deformations are then simulated using the Clawpack hyperbolic PDE package. Results from considering the water layer both as linearly elastic and as "nearly incompressible" are compared to that of the Okada solution.

A possible source mechanism of the 1946 Unimak Alaska far-field tsunami, uplift of the mid-slope terrace above a splay fault zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Huene, Roland E.; Miller, John J.; Klaeschen, Dirk; Dartnell, Peter

2016-01-01

In 1946, megathrust seismicity along the Unimak segment of the Alaska subduction zone generated the largest ever recorded Alaska/Aleutian tsunami. The tsunami severely damaged Pacific islands and coastal areas from Alaska to Antarctica. It is the charter member of “tsunami” earthquakes that produce outsized far-field tsunamis for the recorded magnitude. Its source mechanisms were unconstrained by observations because geophysical data for the Unimak segment were sparse and of low resolution. Reprocessing of legacy geophysical data reveals a deep water, high-angle reverse or splay thrust fault zone that leads megathrust slip upward to the mid-slope terrace seafloor rather than along the plate boundary toward the trench axis. Splay fault uplift elevates the outer mid-slope terrace and its inner area subsides. Multibeam bathymetry along the splay fault zone shows recent but undated seafloor disruption. The structural configuration of the nearby Semidi segment is similar to that of the Unimak segment, portending generation of a future large tsunami directed toward the US West coast.

Ionospheric total electron content seismo-perturbation after Japan's March 11, 2011, M=9.0 Tohoku earthquake under a geomagnetic storm; a nonlinear principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Jyh-Woei

2012-10-01

Nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) is implemented to analyze the spatial pattern of total electron content (TEC) anomalies 3 hours after Japan's Tohoku earthquake that occurred at 05:46:23 on 11 March, 2011 (UTC) ( M w =9). A geomagnetic storm was in progress at the time of the earthquake. NLPCA and TEC data processing were conducted on the global ionospheric map (GIM) for the time between 08:30 to 09:30 UTC, about 3 hours after this devastating earthquake and ensuing tsunami. Analysis results show stark earthquake-associated TEC anomalies that are widespread, and appear to have been induced by two acoustic gravity waves due to strong shaking (vertical acoustic wave) and the generation of the tsunami (horizontal Rayleigh mode gravity wave). The TEC anomalies roughly fit the initial mainshock and movement of the tsunami. Observation of the earthquake-associated TEC anomalies does not appear to be affected by a contemporaneous geomagnetic storm.

Modelling of Charles Darwin's tsunami reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galiev, Shamil

2010-05-01

Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great 1835 earthquake. He described his impressions and results of the earthquake-induced natural catastrophe in The Voyage of the Beagle. His description of the tsunami could easily be read as a report from Indonesia or Sri Lanka, after the catastrophic tsunami of 26 December 2004. In particular, Darwin emphasised the dependence of earthquake-induced waves on a form of the coast and the coastal depth: ‘… Talcuhano and Callao are situated at the head of great shoaling bays, and they have always suffered from this phenomenon; whereas, the town of Valparaiso, which is seated close on the border of a profound ocean... has never been overwhelmed by one of these terrific deluges…' . He reports also, that ‘… the whole body of the sea retires from the coast, and then returns in great waves of overwhelming force ...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). The coastal evolution of a tsunami was analytically studied in many publications (see, for example, Synolakis, C.E., Bernard, E.N., 2006. Philos. Trans. R. Soc., Ser. A, 364, 2231-2265; Tinti, S., Tonini, R. 205. J.Fluid Mech., 535, 11-21). However, the Darwin's reports and the influence of the coastal depth on the formation and the evolution of the steep front and the profile of tsunami did not practically discuss. Recently, a mathematical theory of these phenomena was presented in researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474. The theory describes the waves which are excited due to nonlinear effects within a shallow coastal zone. The tsunami elevation is described by two components: . Here is the linear (prime) component. It describes the wave coming from the deep ocean. is the nonlinear component. This component may become very important near the coastal line. After that the theory of the shallow waves is used. This theory yields the linear equation for and the weakly-nonlinear equation for . The last equation contains the forcing term which is generated by nonlinearity and depends on . The nonlinear shock-like solution for is constructed which is valid within the narrow coastal zone. Then the tsunami evolution near a coast is studied. It is found that the coastal evolution strongly depends on the profile of the bottom and the distance from the coastline. Far from this the wave surface is smooth and the wave is long enough. The wave profile begins to change quickly, if the coastal water is shallow. The steep (discontinuous) front of the tsunami can be generated. The water level reduces ahead of the front, or the ebb can appear there. Then this front begins to move away from the coast - into the ocean. This direction is opposite to the motion of the whole wave. The amplitude of the front is increased. The water wall is formed. This process explains the catastrophic effect of a tsunami, when a water-wall appears instantly. The wave, having two steep peaks, may be generated in the case of very shallow water. In contrast with this, the tsunami, practically, does not change, if the coastal water is deep. On the whole, the conclusions agree with the Darwin's reports.

3D numerical investigation on landslide generated tsunamis around a conical island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montagna, Francesca; Bellotti, Giorgio

2010-05-01

This paper presents numerical computations of tsunamis generated by subaerial and submerged landslides falling along the flank of a conical island. The study is inspired by the tsunamis that on 30th December 2002 attacked the coast of the volcanic island of Stromboli (South Tyrrhenian sea, Italy). In particular this paper analyzes the important feature of the lateral spreading of landside generated tsunamis and the associated flooding hazard. The numerical model used in this study is the full three dimensional commercial code FLOW-3D. The model has already been successfully used (Choi et al., 2007; 2008; Chopakatla et al, 2008) to study the interaction of waves and structures. In the simulations carried out in this work a particular feature of the code has been employed: the GMO (General Moving Object) algorithm. It allows to reproduce the interaction between moving objects, as a landslide, and the water. FLOW-3D has been firstly validated using available 3D experiments reproducing tsunamis generated by landslides at the flank of a conical island. The experiments have been carried out in the LIC laboratory of the Polytechnic of Bari, Italy (Di Risio et al., 2009). Numerical and experimental time series of run-up and sea level recorded at gauges located at the flanks of the island and offshore have been successfully compared. This analysis shows that the model can accurately represent the generation, the propagation and the inundation of landslide generated tsunamis and suggests the use of the numerical model as a tool for preparing inundation maps. At the conference we will present the validation of the model and parametric analyses aimed to investigate how wave properties depend on the landslide kinematic and on further parameters such as the landslide volume and shape, as well as the radius of the island. The expected final results of the research are precomputed inundation maps that depend on the characteristics of the landslide and of the island. Finally we will try to apply the code to a real life case i.e. the landslide tsunamis at the coast of the Stromboli island (Italy). SELECTED REFERENCES Choi, B.H. and D. C. Kim and E. Pelinovsky and S. B. Woo, 2007. Three dimensional simulation of tsunami run-up around conical island. Coastal Engineering 54,374 pp. 618-629. Chopakatla, S.C. and T.C. Lipmann and J.E. Richardson, 2008. Field verification of a computational fluid dynamics model for wave transformation and breaking in the surf zone. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 134(2), pp. 71-80 Di Risio, M., P. De Girolamo, G. Bellotti, A. Panizzo, F. Aristodemo, M. G.Molfetta, and A. F. Petrillo (2009), Landslidegenerated tsunamis runup at the coast of a conical island: New physical model experiments. J. Geophys. Res., 114, C01009, doi:10.1029/2008JC004858 Flow Science, Inc, 2007. FLOW-3D User's Manual.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's Response to the Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, S. A.; Becker, N. C.; Shiro, B.; Koyanagi, K. K.; Sardina, V.; Walsh, D.; Wang, D.; McCreery, C. S.; Fryer, G. J.; Cessaro, R. K.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Hsu, V.

2011-12-01

The largest Pacific basin earthquake in 47 years, and also the largest magnitude earthquake since the Sumatra 2004 earthquake, struck off of the east coast of the Tohoku region of Honshu, Japan at 5:46 UTC on 11 March 2011. The Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) generated a massive tsunami with runups of up to 40m along the Tohoku coast. The tsunami waves crossed the Pacific Ocean causing significant damage as far away as Hawaii, California, and Chile, thereby becoming the largest, most destructive tsunami in the Pacific Basin since 1960. Triggers on the seismic stations at Erimo, Hokkaido (ERM) and Matsushiro, Honshu (MAJO), alerted Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) scientists 90 seconds after the earthquake began. Four minutes after its origin, and about one minute after the earthquake's rupture ended, PTWC issued an observatory message reporting a preliminary magnitude of 7.5. Eight minutes after origin time, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued its first international tsunami message in its capacity as the Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center. In accordance with international tsunami warning system protocols, PTWC then followed with its first international tsunami warning message using JMA's earthquake parameters, including an Mw of 7.8. Additional Mwp, mantle wave, and W-phase magnitude estimations based on the analysis of later-arriving seismic data at PTWC revealed that the earthquake magnitude reached at least 8.8, and that a destructive tsunami would likely be crossing the Pacific Ocean. The earthquake damaged the nearest coastal sea-level station located 90 km from the epicenter in Ofunato, Japan. The NOAA DART sensor situated 600 km off the coast of Sendai, Japan, at a depth of 5.6 km recorded a tsunami wave amplitude of nearly two meters, making it by far the largest tsunami wave ever recorded by a DART sensor. Thirty minutes later, a coastal sea-level station at Hanasaki, Japan, 600 km from the epicenter, recorded a tsunami wave amplitude of nearly three meters. The evacuation of Hawaii's coastlines commenced at 7:31 UTC. Concurrent with this tsunami event, a widely-felt Mw 4.6 earthquake occurred beneath the island of Hawai`i at 8:58 UTC. PTWC responded within three minutes of origin time with a Tsunami Information Statement stating that the Hawaii earthquake would not generate a tsunami. After issuing 27 international tsunami bulletins to Pacific basin countries, and 16 messages to the State of Hawaii during a period of 25 hours after the event began, PTWC concluded its role during the Tohoku tsunami event with the issuance of the corresponding warning cancellation message at 6:36 UTC on 12 March 2011. During the following weeks, however, the PTWC would continue to respond to dozens of aftershocks related to the earthquake. We will present a complete timeline of PTWC's activities, both domestic and international, during the Tohoku tsunami event. We will also illustrate the immense number of website hits, phone calls, and media requests that flooded PTWC during the course of the event, as well as the growing role social media plays in communicating tsunami hazard information to the public.

Origin of the ahead of tsunami traveling ionospheric disturbances during Sumatra tsunami and offshore forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagiya, Mala S.; Kherani, E. A.; Sunil, P. S.; Sunil, A. S.; Sunda, S.; Ramesh, D. S.

2017-07-01

The presence of ionospheric disturbances associated with Sumatra 2004 tsunami that propagated ahead of tsunami itself has previously been identified. However, their origin remains unresolved till date. Focusing on their origin mechanism, we document these ionospheric disturbances referred as Ahead of tsunami Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (ATIDs). Using total electron content (TEC) data from GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation GPS receivers located near the Indian east coast, we first confirm the ATIDs presence in TEC that appear 90 min ahead of the arrival of tsunami at the Indian east coast. We propose here a simulation study based on tsunami-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling that considers tsunamigenic acoustic gravity waves (AGWs) to excite these disturbances. We explain the ATIDs generation based on the dissipation of transverse mode of the primary AGWs. The simulation corroborates the excitation of ATIDs with characteristics similar to the observations. Therefore, we offer an alternative theoretical tool to monitor the offshore ATIDs where observations are either rare or not available and could be potentially important for the tsunami early warning.

Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Run-up and Inundation in Hawaii due to Distant Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gica, E.; Teng, M. H.; Liu, P. L.

2004-12-01

Risk assessment of natural hazards usually includes two aspects, namely, the probability of the natural hazard occurrence and the degree of damage caused by the natural hazard. Our current study is focused on the first aspect, i.e., the development and evaluation of a methodology that can predict the probability of coastal inundation due to distant tsunamis in the Pacific Basin. The calculation of the probability of tsunami inundation could be a simple statistical problem if a sufficiently long record of field data on inundation was available. Unfortunately, such field data are very limited in the Pacific Basin due to the reason that field measurement of inundation requires the physical presence of surveyors on site. In some areas, no field measurements were ever conducted in the past. Fortunately, there are more complete and reliable historical data on earthquakes in the Pacific Basin partly because earthquakes can be measured remotely. There are also numerical simulation models such as the Cornell COMCOT model that can predict tsunami generation by an earthquake, propagation in the open ocean, and inundation onto a coastal land. Our objective is to develop a methodology that can link the probability of earthquakes in the Pacific Basin with the inundation probability in a coastal area. The probabilistic methodology applied here involves the following steps: first, the Pacific Rim is divided into blocks of potential earthquake sources based on the past earthquake record and fault information. Then the COMCOT model is used to predict the inundation at a distant coastal area due to a tsunami generated by an earthquake of a particular magnitude in each source block. This simulation generates a response relationship between the coastal inundation and an earthquake of a particular magnitude and location. Since the earthquake statistics is known for each block, by summing the probability of all earthquakes in the Pacific Rim, the probability of the inundation in a coastal area can be determined through the response relationship. Although the idea of the statistical methodology applied here is not new, this study is the first to apply it to study the probability of inundation caused by earthquake-generated distant tsunamis in the Pacific Basin. As a case study, the methodology is applied to predict the tsunami inundation risk in Hilo Bay in Hawaii. Since relatively more field data on tsunami inundation are available for Hilo Bay, this case study can help to evaluate the applicability of the methodology for predicting tsunami inundation risk in the Pacific Basin. Detailed results will be presented at the AGU meeting.

Distribution and sedimentary characteristics of tsunami deposits along the Cascadia margin of western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, R.; Jaffe, B.; Gelfenbaum, G.

2007-01-01

Tsunami deposits have been found at more than 60 sites along the Cascadia margin of Western North America, and here we review and synthesize their distribution and sedimentary characteristics based on the published record. Cascadia tsunami deposits are best preserved, and most easily identified, in low-energy coastal environments such as tidal marshes, back-barrier marshes and coastal lakes where they occur as anomalous layers of sand within peat and mud. They extend up to a kilometer inland in open coastal settings and several kilometers up river valleys. They are distinguished from other sediments by a combination of sedimentary character and stratigraphic context. Recurrence intervals range from 300-1000??years with an average of 500-600??years. The tsunami deposits have been used to help evaluate and mitigate tsunami hazards in Cascadia. They show that the Cascadia subduction zone is prone to great earthquakes that generate large tsunamis. The inclusion of tsunami deposits on inundation maps, used in conjunction with results from inundation models, allows a more accurate assessment of areas subject to tsunami inundation. The application of sediment transport models can help estimate tsunami flow velocity and wave height, parameters which are necessary to help establish evacuation routes and plan development in tsunami prone areas. ?? 2007.

The U.S. East Coast Meteotsunami of June 13, 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Kim, Y.; Wang, D.; Becker, N. C.; Weinstein, S.; Walker, K.

2013-12-01

NOAA's two Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) provide advance notification to coastal communities concerning tsunami hazards. While the focus is primarily on seismic sources, the U.S. East Coast event of June 13, 2013 indicates the importance of understanding and forecasting atmospherically-driven tsunamis, or meteotsunamis, as well. Here we describe an approach which explains the generation of this event by atmospheric processes, and suggests that the causative forces can be monitored and used to forecast meteotsunami occurrence. The U.S. East Coast tsunami of June 13, 2013 was well recorded at tide gauges from North Carolina to Massachusetts as well as at Bermuda and Puerto Rico. It also triggered DART 44402, just east of the Atlantic shelf break at 39.4N. As there was no seismic energy release associated with the tsunami and an eastward propagating major weather system crossed the Atlantic coast just before the tsunami, the focus turned to atmospheric forcing. Tsunami forecast models used at the two U.S. TWCs were modified to introduce moving atmospheric pressure distributions as sources. In a simple case, a north-south oriented line air pressure jump of width 50 km and pressure of 4 mb at sea level was moved eastward at 20 m/s. The speed matched both the storm speed at the coast and the long wave speed for 40 m deep water, thus allowing for resonant coupling of atmosphere to ocean in the shelf region (Proudman Resonance). Considering the simplicity of the source, a reasonable comparison between the modeled and observed tsunami was obtained with regards to arrival time and height. The proposed source also offers an explanation of the later wave arrivals at US tide gauges. These typically lagged the arrival at Bermuda - a location much further east. This pattern can be explained within the context of Proudman resonance if the waves arriving at coastal stations originated at the shelf break as reflected waves. Model animations of wave dynamics corroborate this phenomenon. The contribution of edge waves generated as the system moves over the coast is also examined. Remaining questions include the importance of shelf parameters in setting the wave fetch and the 'Q' of Proudman resonance along the Atlantic coastline. In other words, are some stretches of shelf more conducive to tsunami formation than others? Wind stress was disregarded in the initial modeling work leaving its possible importance as another unanswered question. Operational questions include how to detect likely meteotsunami conditions with real-time meteorological measurements, and what form alerts should take. The minimum necessary temporal resolution of the pressure sensors along with their density and siting needs to be determined. Because details of the source, such as direction and speed of propagation, will likely subject unique sections of coastline to tsunami attack, the detailed analysis of data from sensor arrays to be used in forecasting will be important.

Development Of New Databases For Tsunami Hazard Analysis In California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Bryant, W. A.; Dengler, L. A.; Goltz, J. D.; Legg, M.; McGuire, T.; Miller, K. M.; Real, C. R.; Synolakis, C.; Uslu, B.

2009-12-01

The California Geological Survey (CGS) has partnered with other tsunami specialists to produce two statewide databases to facilitate the evaluation of tsunami hazard products for both emergency response and land-use planning and development. A robust, State-run tsunami deposit database is being developed that compliments and expands on existing databases from the National Geophysical Data Center (global) and the USGS (Cascadia). Whereas these existing databases focus on references or individual tsunami layers, the new State-maintained database concentrates on the location and contents of individual borings/trenches that sample tsunami deposits. These data provide an important observational benchmark for evaluating the results of tsunami inundation modeling. CGS is collaborating with and sharing the database entry form with other states to encourage its continued development beyond California’s coastline so that historic tsunami deposits can be evaluated on a regional basis. CGS is also developing an internet-based, tsunami source scenario database and forum where tsunami source experts and hydrodynamic modelers can discuss the validity of tsunami sources and their contribution to hazard assessments for California and other coastal areas bordering the Pacific Ocean. The database includes all distant and local tsunami sources relevant to California starting with the forty scenarios evaluated during the creation of the recently completed statewide series of tsunami inundation maps for emergency response planning. Factors germane to probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses (PTHA), such as event histories and recurrence intervals, are also addressed in the database and discussed in the forum. Discussions with other tsunami source experts will help CGS determine what additional scenarios should be considered in PTHA for assessing the feasibility of generating products of value to local land-use planning and development.

The FASTER Approach: A New Tool for Calculating Real-Time Tsunami Flood Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Cross, A.; Johnson, L.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Whitmore, P.

2014-12-01

In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis that struck the California coastline, emergency managers requested that the state tsunami program provide more detailed information about the flood potential of distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. The main issue is that existing tsunami evacuation plans call for evacuation of the predetermined "worst-case" tsunami evacuation zone (typically at a 30- to 50-foot elevation) during any "Warning" level event; the alternative is to not call an evacuation at all. A solution to provide more detailed information for secondary evacuation zones has been the development of tsunami evacuation "playbooks" to plan for tsunami scenarios of various sizes and source locations. To determine a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami, an analytical tool has been developed called the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the National Tsunami Warning Center provides tsunami forecast amplitudes and arrival times for approximately 60 coastal locations in California. At the same time, the regional NOAA Weather Forecast Offices in the state calculate the forecasted coastal storm and tidal conditions that will influence tsunami flooding. Providing added conservatism in calculating tsunami flood potential, we include an error factor of 30% for the forecast amplitude, which is based on observed forecast errors during recent events, and a site specific run-up factor which is calculated from the existing state tsunami modeling database. The factors are added together into a cumulative FASTER flood potential value for the first five hours of tsunami activity and used to select the appropriate tsunami phase evacuation "playbook" which is provided to each coastal community shortly after the forecast is provided.

The tsunami phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röbke, B. R.; Vött, A.

2017-12-01

With human activity increasingly concentrating on coasts, tsunamis (from Japanese tsu = harbour, nami = wave) are a major natural hazard to today's society. Stimulated by disastrous tsunami impacts in recent years, for instance in south-east Asia (2004) or in Japan (2011), tsunami science has significantly flourished, which has brought great advances in hazard assessment and mitigation plans. Based on tsunami research of the last decades, this paper provides a thorough treatise on the tsunami phenomenon from a geoscientific point of view. Starting with the wave features, tsunamis are introduced as long shallow water waves or wave trains crossing entire oceans without major energy loss. At the coast, tsunamis typically show wave shoaling, funnelling and resonance effects as well as a significant run-up and backflow. Tsunami waves are caused by a sudden displacement of the water column due to a number of various trigger mechanisms. Such are earthquakes as the main trigger, submarine and subaerial mass wastings, volcanic activity, atmospheric disturbances (meteotsunamis) and cosmic impacts, as is demonstrated by giving corresponding examples from the past. Tsunamis are known to have a significant sedimentary and geomorphological off- and onshore response. So-called tsunamites form allochthonous high-energy deposits that are left at the coast during tsunami landfall. Tsunami deposits show typical sedimentary features, as basal erosional unconformities, fining-upward and -landward, a high content of marine fossils, rip-up clasts from underlying units and mud caps, all reflecting the hydrodynamic processes during inundation. The on- and offshore behaviour of tsunamis and related sedimentary processes can be simulated using hydro- and morphodynamic numerical models. The paper provides an overview of the basic tsunami modelling techniques, including discretisation, guidelines for appropriate temporal and spatial resolution as well as the nesting method. Furthermore, the Boussinesq approximation-a simplification of the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations-is presented as a basic theory behind numerical tsunami models, which adequately reflects the non-linear, dispersive wave behaviour of tsunamis. The fully non-linear Boussinesq equations allow the simulation of tsunamis e.g. in the form of N-waves. Based on the various subtopics presented, recommendations for future multidisciplinary tsunami research are made. It is especially discussed how the combination of sedimentary and geomorphological tsunami field traces and numerical modelling techniques can contribute to derive locally relevant tsunami sources and to improve the assessment of tsunami hazards considering the individual pre-/history and physiogeographical setting of a specific region.

Confirmation and calibration of computer modeling of tsunamis produced by Augustine volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beget, James E.; Kowalik, Zygmunt

2006-01-01

Numerical modeling has been used to calculate the characteristics of a tsunami generated by a landslide into Cook Inlet from Augustine Volcano. The modeling predicts travel times of ca. 50-75 minutes to the nearest populated areas, and indicates that significant wave amplification occurs near Mt. Iliamna on the western side of Cook Inlet, and near the Nanwelak and the Homer-Anchor Point areas on the east side of Cook Inlet. Augustine volcano last produced a tsunami during an eruption in 1883, and field evidence of the extent and height of the 1883 tsunamis can be used to test and constrain the results of the computer modeling. Tsunami deposits on Augustine Island indicate waves near the landslide source were more than 19 m high, while 1883 tsunami deposits in distal sites record waves 6-8 m high. Paleotsunami deposits were found at sites along the coast near Mt. Iliamna, Nanwelak, and Homer, consistent with numerical modeling indicating significant tsunami wave amplification occurs in these areas. 

Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.

2013-01-01

scenario-specific, tsunami evacuation “playbook” maps and guidance in-harbor hazard maps and offshore safety zones for potential boat evacuation during future distant source events; “probability-based” products for land-use planning under the California Seismic Hazard Mapping Act; and an expansion of real-time and post-tsunami field reconnaissance teams and information sharing through a state-wide clearinghouse. The state tsunami program has benefitted greatly from participation in the SAFRR tsunami scenario process, and hopes to continue this relationship with the U.S. Geological Survey to help improve tsunami preparedness in California.

When is a Tsunami a Mega-Tsunami?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chague-Goff, C.; Goff, J. R.; Terry, J. P.; Goto, K.

2014-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami is commonly called a mega-tsunami, and this attribute has also been linked to the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. However, since this term was first coined in the early 1990's there have been very few attempts to define it. As such it has been applied in a rather arbitrary fashion to a number of tsunami characteristics, such as wave height or amplitude at both the source and at distant locations, run-up height, geographical extent and impact. The first use of the term is related to a tsunami generated by a large bolide impact and indeed it seems entirely appropriate that the term should be used for such rare events on geological timescales. However, probably as a result of media-driven hyperbole, scientists have used this term at least twice in the last decade, which is hardly a significant portion of the geological timescale. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that these recent unexpectedly large events do not fall in the category of mega-tsunami but into a category of exceptional events within historical experience and local perspective. The use of the term mega-tsunami over the past 14 years is discussed and a definition is provided that marks the relative uniqueness of these events and a new term, appropriately Japanese in origin, namely that of souteigai-tsunami, is proposed. Examples of these tsunamis will be provided.

Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2013-01-01

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected locales in southern California. Importantly, section 6 provides a comparison of the effect of including horizontal displacements at the source described in section 1 and differences in bottom friction on wave heights and inundation in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Modeling described in section 7 (Lynett and Son) uses a higher order physical model to determine variations of currents during the tsunami and complex flow structures such as jets and eddies. Section 7 also uses sediment transport models to estimate scour and deposition of sediment in ports and harbors—a significant effect that was observed in southern California following the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Together, all of the sections in this report form the basis for damage, impact, and emergency preparedness aspects of the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Three sections of this report independently calculate wave height and inundation results using the source specified by Kirby and others (2013). Refer to figure 29 in section 3, figure 52 in section 4, and figure 62 in section 6. All of these results are relative to a mean high water (MHW) vertical datum. Slight differences in the results are observed in East Basin of the Port of Los Angeles, Alamitos Bay, and the Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge. However, given that these three modeling efforts involved different implementations of the source, different numerical wave propagation and runup models, and slight differences in the digital elevation models (DEMs), the similarity among the results is remarkable.

Display of historical and hypothetical tsunami on the coast of Sakhalin Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostenko, Irina; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Yalciner, Ahmet

2014-05-01

Tsunami waves achieve the coast of the Sakhalin Island and their sources are located in the Japan Sea, in the Okhotsk Sea, in Kuril Islands region and in the Pacific Ocean. Study of tsunami generation characteristics and its propagation allows studying display of the tsunami on the various parts of the island coast. For this purpose the series of computational experiments of some historical tsunamis was carried out. Their sources located in Japan Sea and Kuril Islands region. The simulation results are compared with the observations. Analysis of all recorded historical tsunami on coast of Sakhalin Island was done. To identify the possible display of the tsunami on the coast of Sakhalin Island the series of computational experiments of hypothetical tsunamis was carried out. Their sources located in the Japan Sea and in the Okhotsk Sea. There were used hydrodynamic sources. There were used different parameters of sources (length, width, height, raising and lowering of sea level), which correspond to earthquakes of various magnitudes. The analysis of the results was carried out. Pictures of the distribution of maximum amplitudes from each tsunami were done. Areas of Okhotsk Sea, Japan Sea and offshore strip of Sakhalin Island with maximum tsunami amplitudes were defined. Graphs of the distribution of maximum tsunami wave heights along the coast of the Sakhalin Island were plotted. Based on shallow-water equation tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for numerical simulations. This work was supported by ASTARTE project.

Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

2016-04-01

Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national vulnerability assessment is carried out for the entire Oman coastal area comprising 30 coastal wilayats, whereas the local sensitivity assessment is performed for the 9 coastal study areas. This work also connects vulnerability-risk assessment results to site-specific and target-oriented risk reduction measures. Results identify high risk areas along the coast of Oman in which measures for risk reduction are proposed. The identification and prioritization of mitigation measures were supported by a panel of local and international experts developed during a Risk Assessment Workshop held in Oman and a handbook containing the mitigation measures at national and local scales was developed and delivered to the stakeholders. We would like to thank the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Government of the Sultanate of Oman (MOTC), Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN), Public Authority for Civil Aviation (PACA), for supporting and funding this project and the collaboration of the IOC-UNESCO personnel. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe).

The "Tsunami Earthquake" of 13 April 1923 in Northern Kamchatka: Seismological and Hydrodynamic Investigations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salaree, Amir; Okal, Emile A.

2018-04-01

We present a seismological and hydrodynamic investigation of the earthquake of 13 April 1923 at Ust'-Kamchatsk, Northern Kamchatka, which generated a more powerful and damaging tsunami than the larger event of 03 February 1923, thus qualifying as a so-called "tsunami earthquake". On the basis of modern relocations, we suggest that it took place outside the fault area of the mainshock, across the oblique Pacific-North America plate boundary, a model confirmed by a limited dataset of mantle waves, which also confirms the slow nature of the source, characteristic of tsunami earthquakes. However, numerical simulations for a number of legitimate seismic models fail to reproduce the sharply peaked distribution of tsunami wave amplitudes reported in the literature. By contrast, we can reproduce the distribution of reported wave amplitudes using an underwater landslide as a source of the tsunami, itself triggered by the earthquake inside the Kamchatskiy Bight.

Field survey of the March 28, 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake and Tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borrero, J.C.; McAdoo, B.; Jaffe, B.; Dengler, L.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Higman, B.; Hidayat, R.; Moore, A.; Kongko, W.; ,; Peters, R.; Prasetya, G.; Titov, V.; Yulianto, E.

2011-01-01

On the evening of March 28, 2005 at 11:09 p.m. local time (16:09 UTC), a large earthquake occurred offshore of West Sumatra, Indonesia. With a moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.6, the event caused substantial shaking damage and land level changes between Simeulue Island in the north and the Batu Islands in the south. The earthquake also generated a tsunami, which was observed throughout the source region as well as on distant tide gauges. While the tsunami was not as extreme as the tsunami of December 26th, 2004, it did cause significant flooding and damage at some locations. The spatial and temporal proximity of the two events led to a unique set of observational data from the earthquake and tsunami as well as insights relevant to tsunami hazard planning and education efforts. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

New Approaches to Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Demonstrated in Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priest, G. R.; Rizzo, A.; Madin, I.; Lyles Smith, R.; Stimely, L.

2012-12-01

Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries and Oregon Emergency Management collaborated over the last four years to increase tsunami preparedness for residents and visitors to the Oregon coast. Utilizing support from the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program (NTHMP), new approaches to outreach and tsunami hazard assessment were developed and then applied. Hazard assessment was approached by first doing two pilot studies aimed at calibrating theoretical models to direct observations of tsunami inundation gleaned from the historical and prehistoric (paleoseismic/paleotsunami) data. The results of these studies were then submitted to peer-reviewed journals and translated into 1:10,000-12,000-scale inundation maps. The inundation maps utilize a powerful new tsunami model, SELFE, developed by Joseph Zhang at the Oregon Health & Science University. SELFE uses unstructured computational grids and parallel processing technique to achieve fast accurate simulation of tsunami interactions with fine-scale coastal morphology. The inundation maps were simplified into tsunami evacuation zones accessed as map brochures and an interactive mapping portal at http://www.oregongeology.org/tsuclearinghouse/. Unique in the world are new evacuation maps that show separate evacuation zones for distant versus locally generated tsunamis. The brochure maps explain that evacuation time is four hours or more for distant tsunamis but 15-20 minutes for local tsunamis that are invariably accompanied by strong ground shaking. Since distant tsunamis occur much more frequently than local tsunamis, the two-zone maps avoid needless over evacuation (and expense) caused by one-zone maps. Inundation mapping for the entire Oregon coast will be complete by ~2014. Educational outreach was accomplished first by doing a pilot study to measure effectiveness of various approaches using before and after polling and then applying the most effective methods. In descending order, the most effective methods were: (1) door-to-door (person-to-person) education, (2) evacuation drills, (3) outreach to K-12 schools, (4) media events, and (5) workshops targeted to key audiences (lodging facilities, teachers, and local officials). Community organizers were hired to apply these five methods to clusters of small communities, measuring performance by before and after polling. Organizers were encouraged to approach the top priority, person-to-person education, by developing Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) or CERT-like organizations in each community, thereby leaving behind a functioning volunteer-based group that will continue the outreach program and build long term resiliency. One of the most effective person-to-person educational tools was the Map Your Neighborhood program that brings people together so they can sketch the basic layout of their neighborhoods to depict key earthquake and tsunami hazards and mitigation solutions. The various person-to-person volunteer efforts and supporting outreach activities are knitting communities together and creating a permanent culture of tsunami and earthquake preparedness. All major Oregon coastal population centers will have been covered by this intensive outreach program by ~2014.

Modeling of Grain Size Distribution of Tsunami Sand Deposits in V-shaped Valley of Numanohama During the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Satake, K.; Goto, T.; Takahashi, T.

2016-12-01

Estimating tsunami amplitude from tsunami sand deposit has been a challenge. The grain size distribution of tsunami sand deposit may have correlation with tsunami inundation process, and further with its source characteristics. In order to test this hypothesis, we need a tsunami sediment transport model that can accurately estimate grain size distribution of tsunami deposit. Here, we built and validate a tsunami sediment transport model that can simulate grain size distribution. Our numerical model has three layers which are suspended load layer, active bed layer, and parent bed layer. The two bed layers contain information about the grain size distribution. This numerical model can handle a wide range of grain sizes from 0.063 (4 ϕ) to 5.657 mm (-2.5 ϕ). We apply the numerical model to simulate the sedimentation process during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Numanohama, Iwate prefecture, Japan. The grain size distributions at 15 sample points along a 900 m transect from the beach are used to validate the tsunami sediment transport model. The tsunami deposits are dominated by coarse sand with diameter of 0.5 - 1 mm and their thickness are up to 25 cm. Our tsunami model can well reproduce the observed tsunami run-ups that are ranged from 16 to 34 m along the steep valley in Numanohama. The shapes of the simulated grain size distributions at many sample points located within 300 m from the shoreline are similar to the observations. The differences between observed and simulated peak of grain size distributions are less than 1 ϕ. Our result also shows that the simulated sand thickness distribution along the transect is consistent with the observation.

Power and Scour: Laboratory simulations of tsunami-induced scour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd, David; McGovern, David; Whitehouse, Richard; Harris, John; Rossetto, Tiziana

2017-04-01

The world's coastal regions are becoming increasingly urbanised and densely populated. Recent major tsunami events in regions such as Samoa (2007), Indonesia (2004, 2006, 2010), and Japan (2011) have starkly highlighted this effect, resulting in catastrophic loss of both life and property, with much of the damage to buildings being reported in EEFIT mission reports following each of these events. The URBANWAVES project, led by UCL in collaboration with HR Wallingford, brings the power of the tsunami to the laboratory for the first time. The Pneumatic Tsunami Simulator is capable of tsimulating both idealised and real-world tsunami traces at a scale of 1:50. Experiments undertaken in the Fast Flow Facility at HR Wallingford using square and rectangular buildings placed on a sediment bed have allow us to measure, for the first time under laboratory conditions, the variations in the flow field around buildings produced by tsunami waves as a result of the scour process. The results of these tests are presented, providing insight into the process of scour development under different types of tsunami, giving a glimpse into the power of tsunamis that have already occurred, and helping us to inform the designs of future buildings so that we can be better prepared to analyse and design against these failure modes in the future. Additional supporting abstracts include Foster et al., on tsunami induced building loads; Chandler et al., on the tsunami simulation concept and McGovern et al., on the simulation of tsunami-driven scour and flow fields.

Tsunami Detection Systems for International Requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawson, R. A.

2007-12-01

Results are presented regarding the first commercially available, fully operational, tsunami detection system to have passed stringent U.S. government testing requirements and to have successfully demonstrated its ability to detect an actual tsunami at sea. Spurred by the devastation of the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami that killed more than 230,000 people, the private sector actively supported the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's (IOC"s) efforts to develop a tsunami warning system and mitigation plan for the Indian Ocean region. As each country in the region developed its requirements, SAIC recognized that many of these underdeveloped countries would need significant technical assistance to fully execute their plans. With the original focus on data fusion, consequence assessment tools, and warning center architecture, it was quickly realized that the cornerstone of any tsunami warning system would be reliable tsunami detection buoys that could meet very stringent operational standards. Our goal was to leverage extensive experience in underwater surveillance and oceanographic sensing to produce an enhanced and reliable deep water sensor that could meet emerging international requirements. Like the NOAA Deep-ocean Assessment and Recording of Tsunamis (DART TM ) buoy, the SAIC Tsunami Buoy (STB) system consists of three subsystems: a surfaccommunications buoy subsystem, a bottom pressure recorder subsystem, and a buoy mooring subsystem. With the operational success that DART has demonstrated, SAIC decided to build and test to the same high standards. The tsunami detection buoy system measures small changes in the depth of the deep ocean caused by tsunami waves as they propagate past the sensor. This is accomplished by using an extremely sensitive bottom pressure sensor/recorder to measure very small changes in pressure as the waves move past the buoy system. The bottom pressure recorder component includes a processor with algorithms that recognize these characteristics, and then immediately alerts a tsunami warning center through the communications buoy when the processor senses one of these waves. In addition to the tsunami detection buoy system, an end-to-end tsunami warning system was developed that builds upon the country's existing disaster warning infrastructure. This warning system includes 1) components that receive, process, and analyze buoy, seismic and tide gauge data; 2) predictive tools and a consequence assessment tool set to provide decision support; 3) operation center design and implementation; and 4) tsunami buoy operations and maintenance support. The first buoy was deployed Oct. 25, 2006, approximately 200 nautical miles west of San Diego in 3,800 meters of water. Just three weeks later, it was put to the test during an actual tsunami event. On Nov. 15, 2006, an 8.3 magnitude earthquake rocked the Kuril Islands, located between Japan and the Kamchatka Peninsula of Russia. That quake generated a small tsunami. Waves from the tsunami propagated approximately 4,000 nautical miles across the Pacific Ocean in about nine hours-- a speed of about 445 nautical miles per hour when this commercial buoy first detected them. Throughout that event, the tsunami buoy system showed excellent correlation with data collected by a NOAA DART buoy located 28 nautical miles north of it. Subsequent analysis revealed that the STB matched DART operational capabilities and performed flawlessly. The buoy proved its capabilities again on Jan. 13, 2007, when an 8.1 magnitude earthquake occurred in the same region, and the STB detected the seismic event. As a result of the successes of this entire project, SAIC recently applied for and received a license from NOAA to build DART systems.

Landslide-Generated Tsunami Model for Quick Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, M.; Rudaz, B.; Locat, J.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Podladchikov, Y.

2015-12-01

Alpine regions are likely to be areas at risk regarding to landslide-induced tsunamis, because of the proximity between lakes and potential instabilities and due to the concentration of the population in valleys and on the lakes shores. In particular, dam lakes are often surrounded by steep slopes and frequently affect the stability of the banks. In order to assess comprehensively this phenomenon together with the induced risks, we have developed a 2.5D numerical model which aims to simulate the propagation of the landslide, the generation and the propagation of the wave and eventually the spread on the shores or the associated downstream flow. To perform this task, the process is done in three steps. Firstly, the geometry of the sliding mass is constructed using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) concept. Secondly, the propagation of this volume is performed using a model based on viscous flow equations. Finally, the wave generation and its propagation are simulated using the shallow water equations stabilized by the Lax-Friedrichs scheme. The transition between wet and dry bed is performed by the combination of the two latter sets of equations. The proper behavior of our model is demonstrated by; (1) numerical tests from Toro (2001), and (2) by comparison with a real event where the horizontal run-up distance is known (Nicolet landslide, Quebec, Canada). The model is of particular interest due to its ability to perform quickly the 2.5D geometric model of the landslide, the tsunami simulation and, consequently, the hazard assessment.

Mega Tsunamis of the World Ocean and Their Implication for the Tsunami Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusiakov, V. K.

2014-12-01

Mega tsunamis are the strongest tsunamigenic events of tectonic origin that are characterized by run-up heights up to 40-50 m measured along a considerable part of the coastline (up to 1000 km). One of the most important features of mega-tsunamis is their ability to cross the entire oceanic basin and to cause an essential damage to its opposite coast. Another important feature is their ability to penetrate into the marginal seas (like the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea) and cause dangerous water level oscillations along the parts of the coast, which are largely protected by island arcs against the impact of the strongest regional tsunamis. Among all known historical tsunamis (nearly 2250 events during the last 4000 years) they represent only a small fraction (less than 1%) however they are responsible for more than half the total tsunami fatalities and a considerable part of the overall tsunami damage. The source of all known mega tsunamis is subduction submarine earthquakes with magnitude 9.0 or higher having a return period from 200-300 years to 1000-1200 years. The paper presents a list of 15 mega tsunami events identified so far in historical catalogs with their basic source parameters, near-field and far-field impact effects and their generation and propagation features. The far-field impact of mega tsunamis is largely controlled by location and orientation of their earthquake source as well as by deep ocean bathymetry features. We also discuss the problem of the long-term tsunami hazard assessment when the occurrence of mega tsunamis is taken into account.

Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

2017-03-01

Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Rubin, C. M.; Sieh, K.; Jessica, P.; Daly, P.; Ismail, N.; Parnell, A. C.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here, we identify coastal caves as a new depositional environment for reconstructing tsunami records and present a 5,000 year record of continuous tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Sumatra, Indonesia which shows the irregular recurrence of 11 tsunamis between 7,400 and 2,900 years BP. The data demonstrates that the 2004 tsunami was just the latest in a sequence of devastating tsunamis stretching back to at least the early Holocene and suggests a high likelihood for future tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. The sedimentary record in the cave shows that ruptures of the Sunda megathrust vary between large (which generated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and smaller slip failures. The chronology of events suggests the recurrence of multiple smaller tsunamis within relatively short time periods, interrupted by long periods of strain accumulation followed by giant tsunamis. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. The very long dormant period suggests that the Sunda megathrust is capable of accumulating large slip deficits between earthquakes. Such a high slip rupture would produce a substantially larger earthquake than the 2004 event. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda Megathrust ruptures as large as that of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The remarkable variability of recurrence suggests that regional hazard mitigation plans should be based upon the high likelihood of future destructive tsunami demonstrated by the cave record and other paleotsunami sites, rather than estimates of recurrence intervals.

Synthetic tsunami waveform catalogs with kinematic constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, Maria Ana; Miranda, Jorge Miguel; Matias, Luis; Omira, Rachid

2017-07-01

In this study we present a comprehensive methodology to produce a synthetic tsunami waveform catalogue in the northeast Atlantic, east of the Azores islands. The method uses a synthetic earthquake catalogue compatible with plate kinematic constraints of the area. We use it to assess the tsunami hazard from the transcurrent boundary located between Iberia and the Azores, whose western part is known as the Gloria Fault. This study focuses only on earthquake-generated tsunamis. Moreover, we assume that the time and space distribution of the seismic events is known. To do this, we compute a synthetic earthquake catalogue including all fault parameters needed to characterize the seafloor deformation covering the time span of 20 000 years, which we consider long enough to ensure the representability of earthquake generation on this segment of the plate boundary. The computed time and space rupture distributions are made compatible with global kinematic plate models. We use the tsunami empirical Green's functions to efficiently compute the synthetic tsunami waveforms for the dataset of coastal locations, thus providing the basis for tsunami impact characterization. We present the results in the form of offshore wave heights for all coastal points in the dataset. Our results focus on the northeast Atlantic basin, showing that earthquake-induced tsunamis in the transcurrent segment of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary pose a minor threat to coastal areas north of Portugal and beyond the Strait of Gibraltar. However, in Morocco, the Azores, and the Madeira islands, we can expect wave heights between 0.6 and 0.8 m, leading to precautionary evacuation of coastal areas. The advantages of the method are its easy application to other regions and the low computation effort needed.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios of potential underwater earthquakes were developed, and these scenarios were then modeled through during the second phase. The third phase consisted in determining the worst-case scenario based on the Maximum of Maximums (MOM). Inundation and evacuation zones were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Maps and related evacuation products, like evacuation times, can be accessed online via the PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP recent outcomes, including the real time monitoring as well as the protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts in Puerto Rico.

Development of a guideline for estimating tsunami forces On bridge superstructures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

"The Pacific Northwest is vulnerable to seismic events in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) that could generate a : large tsunami that could devastate coastal infrastructure such as bridges. In this context, this paper describes the : development of...

The November 17, 2015 Lefkada offshore (non-?)tsunamigenic earthquake: preliminary considerations and implications for tsunami hazard and warning in the Ionian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Zaniboni, Filippo

2016-04-01

A Mw = 6.5 earthquake occurred on November 17, 2015 just offshore the western coast of the Ionian island of Lefkada (western Greece). The earthquake caused two fatalities and severe damage, especially in the island of Lefkada. Several landslides were set in motion by the earthquake, some of which occurred along the coastal cliffs. The earthquake was clearly felt also along the eastern coasts of Apulia, Calabria and Sicily (Italy). The computed focal mechanisms indicate that the rupture occurred along a dextral strike-slip, sub-vertical fault, compatible with the well-known transcurrent tectonics of the Lefkada-Cephalonia area. At the time of the drafting of this abstract no heterogeneous slip distribution has been proposed. No clear evidence of tsunami effects is available, with the only exception of the signal recorded by the tide gauge in Crotone (eastern Calabria, Italy), where a clear disturbance (still to be fully characterised and explained) emerges from the background at approximately 1 hour after the earthquake origin time. From the tsunami research point of view, the November 17 Lefkada earthquake poses at least two problems, which we try to address in this paper. The first consists in studying the tsunami generation based on the available seismic information and on the tectonic setting of the area. We present results of numerical simulations of the tsunami generation and propagation aimed at casting light on the reasons why the generated tsunami was so weak (or even absent). Starting from the official fault parameters provided by the seismic agencies, we vary a number of them, there including the length and width calculated on the basis of different regression formulas, and the depth. For each configuration we perform tsunami simulations by means of the in-house finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD. In parallel, we analyse the Crotone tide-gauge record in order to understand whether the observed "anomalous" signal can be attributed to a tsunami or not. In the first case we will try at least to reproduce the observed signal, otherwise we will try to understand whether the non-tsunamigenic nature of the event is confirmed by the tsunami simulations. The second problem is more related to tsunami early warning issues, in particular with the performance of the Tsunami Decision Matrix for the Mediterranean, presently adopted for example by the candidate Tsunami Service Providers at NOA (Greece) and INGV (Italy). We will briefly discuss whether the present form of the matrix, which does not include any information on focal mechanism, is well suited to a peculiar event like the November 17 earthquake, which was of strike-slip nature and had a magnitude lying just at the border between two distinct classes of tsunami potential forecast. This study is funded in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe", Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3), and of the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE ("La Ricerca ITaliana per il MARE").

Multi-GPGPU Tsunami simulation at Toyama-bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furuyama, Shoichi; Ueda, Yuki

2017-07-01

Accelerated multi General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) calculation for Tsunami run-up simulation was achieved at the wide area (whole Toyama-bay in Japan) by faster computation technique. Toyama-bay has active-faults at the sea-bed. It has a high possibility to occur earthquakes and Tsunami waves in the case of the huge earthquake, that's why to predict the area of Tsunami run-up is important for decreasing damages to residents by the disaster. However it is very hard task to achieve the simulation by the computer resources problem. A several meter's order of the high resolution calculation is required for the running-up Tsunami simulation because artificial structures on the ground such as roads, buildings, and houses are very small. On the other hand the huge area simulation is also required. In the Toyama-bay case the area is 42 [km] × 15 [km]. When 5 [m] × 5 [m] size computational cells are used for the simulation, over 26,000,000 computational cells are generated. To calculate the simulation, a normal CPU desktop computer took about 10 hours for the calculation. An improvement of calculation time is important problem for the immediate prediction system of Tsunami running-up, as a result it will contribute to protect a lot of residents around the coastal region. The study tried to decrease this calculation time by using multi GPGPU system which is equipped with six NVIDIA TESLA K20xs, InfiniBand network connection between computer nodes by MVAPICH library. As a result 5.16 times faster calculation was achieved on six GPUs than one GPU case and it was 86% parallel efficiency to the linear speed up.

Non-Poissonian Distribution of Tsunami Waiting Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

2007-12-01

Analysis of the global tsunami catalog indicates that tsunami waiting times deviate from an exponential distribution one would expect from a Poisson process. Empirical density distributions of tsunami waiting times were determined using both global tsunami origin times and tsunami arrival times at a particular site with a sufficient catalog: Hilo, Hawai'i. Most sources for the tsunamis in the catalog are earthquakes; other sources include landslides and volcanogenic processes. Both datasets indicate an over-abundance of short waiting times in comparison to an exponential distribution. Two types of probability models are investigated to explain this observation. Model (1) is a universal scaling law that describes long-term clustering of sources with a gamma distribution. The shape parameter (γ) for the global tsunami distribution is similar to that of the global earthquake catalog γ=0.63-0.67 [Corral, 2004]. For the Hilo catalog, γ is slightly greater (0.75-0.82) and closer to an exponential distribution. This is explained by the fact that tsunamis from smaller triggered earthquakes or landslides are less likely to be recorded at a far-field station such as Hilo in comparison to the global catalog, which includes a greater proportion of local tsunamis. Model (2) is based on two distributions derived from Omori's law for the temporal decay of triggered sources (aftershocks). The first is the ETAS distribution derived by Saichev and Sornette [2007], which is shown to fit the distribution of observed tsunami waiting times. The second is a simpler two-parameter distribution that is the exponential distribution augmented by a linear decay in aftershocks multiplied by a time constant Ta. Examination of the sources associated with short tsunami waiting times indicate that triggered events include both earthquake and landslide tsunamis that begin in the vicinity of the primary source. Triggered seismogenic tsunamis do not necessarily originate from the same fault zone, however. For example, subduction-thrust and outer-rise earthquake pairs are evident, such as the November 2006 and January 2007 Kuril Islands tsunamigenic pair. Because of variations in tsunami source parameters, such as water depth above the source, triggered tsunami events with short waiting times are not systematically smaller than the primary tsunami.

Water level ingest, archive and processing system - an integral part of NOAA's tsunami database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLean, S. J.; Mungov, G.; Dunbar, P. K.; Price, D. J.; Mccullough, H.

2013-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and collocated World Data Service for Geophysics (WDS) provides long-term archive, data management, and access to national and global tsunami data. Archive responsibilities include the NOAA Global Historical Tsunami event and runup database, damage photos, as well as other related hazards data. Beginning in 2008, NGDC was given the responsibility of archiving, processing and distributing all tsunami and hazards-related water level data collected from NOAA observational networks in a coordinated and consistent manner. These data include the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) data provided by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), coastal-tide-gauge data from the National Ocean Service (NOS) network and tide-gauge data from the two National Weather Service (NWS) Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) regional networks. Taken together, this integrated archive supports tsunami forecast, warning, research, mitigation and education efforts of NOAA and the Nation. Due to the variety of the water level data, the automatic ingest system was redesigned, along with upgrading the inventory, archive and delivery capabilities based on modern digital data archiving practices. The data processing system was also upgraded and redesigned focusing on data quality assessment in an operational manner. This poster focuses on data availability highlighting the automation of all steps of data ingest, archive, processing and distribution. Examples are given from recent events such as the October 2012 hurricane Sandy, the Feb 06, 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami, and the June 13, 2013 meteotsunami along the U.S. East Coast.

Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

2013-04-01

The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application: The technical development is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards already applies to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services. This is a first step towards best practices and service lifecycles for Early Warning Centre IT service management, including Service Level Agreements (SLA) and Service Certification. While on a global scale the integration of TEWS progresses towards Systems of Systems (SoS), there is still an absence of accredited and reliable certifications for national TEWS or regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems of Systems (TEWSoS). Concepts for TEWS operations have already been published under the guidance of the IOC, and can now be complemented by the recent research advances concerning SoS architecture. Combined with feedback from the real world, such as the NEAMwave 2012 Tsunami exercise in the Mediterranean, this can serve as a starting point to formulate initial requirements for TEWS and TEWSoS certification: Certification activities will cover the establishment of new TEWS and TEWSoS, and also both maintenance and enhancement of existing TEWS/TEWSoS. While the IOC is expected to take a central role in the development of the certification strategy, it remains to be defined which bodies will actually conduct the certification process. Certification requirements and results are likely to become a valuable information source for various target groups, ranging from national policy decision makers, government agency planners, national and local government preparedness officials, TWC staff members, Disaster Responders, the media and the insurance industry.

Sedimentary Record and Morphological Effects of a Landslide-Generated Tsunami in a Polar Region: The 2000 AD Tsunami in Vaigat Strait, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szczucinski, W.; Rosser, N. J.; Strzelecki, M. C.; Long, A. J.; Lawrence, T.; Buchwal, A.; Chague-Goff, C.; Woodroffe, S.

2012-12-01

To date, the effects of tsunami erosion and deposition have mainly been reported from tropical and temperate climatic zones yet tsunamis are also frequent in polar zones, particularly in fjord settings where they can be generated by landslides. Here we report the geological effects of a landslide-triggered tsunami that occurred on 21st November 2000 in Vaigat, northern Disko Bugt in west Greenland. To characterise the typical features of this tsunami we completed twelve detailed coastal transects in a range of depositional settings: cliff coasts, narrow to moderate width coastal plains, lagoons and a coastal lake. At each setting we completed a detailed map using a laser scanner and DGPS survey. The tsunami deposits were described from closely spaced trenches and, from the lake, by a series of sediment cores . At each setting we examined the sedimentological properties of the deposits, as well as their bulk geochemistry and diatom content. Selected specimens of arctic willow from inundated and non-inundated areas were collected to assess the impact of the event in their growth ring records. Samples of sediments beneath the AD 2000 deposit were studied for 137Cs to confirm the age of the tsunami and to assess the extent of erosion. Offshore sediment samples, modern beach and soils/sediments underlying the AD 2000 tsunami deposits were sampled to determine tsunami deposit sources. The observed tsunami run-up exceeded 20 m next to the tsunami trigger - a rock avalanche at Paatuut - and up to 10 m on the opposite coast of the fjord. The inland inundation distance ranged from several tens of meters to over 300 m. The wave was recorded as far as 180 km away from the source. The tsunami inundated the coast obliquely to the shoreline in all locations studied. The tsunami frequently caused erosion of existing beach ridges whilst erosional niches were formed inland. The tsunami deposits mainly comprise gravels and very coarse sand. They are over 30 cm thick close to the coast and in front of inland scarps. In the most inland parts of the inundation they are often marked only by patches of coarse sand left on the pre-tsunami soil. At several sites we observed boulder deposits, although in many cases they were likely transported as boulders in icebergs. A characteristic feature related to tsunami deposits were "mud pats" - up to 1 m in diameter and about 20 cm thick silty deposits with occasional gravels - which cover the tsunami deposit. They are interpreted as the result of melting of icebergs washed inland by the tsunami. They often occur close to the inundation limit. The mud pats are a characteristic feature for the tsunami deposits in iceberg dominated settings and are unlikely to be left by storms. The results of this study will serve as a guide for further studies of palaeotsunami in the Vaigat region and elsewhere in polar regions. The study was funded by Polish National Science Centre grant No. 2011/01/B/ST10/01553. Fieldwork was supported by the Arctic Station, Disko (Danish Polar Centre). The police at Ilulissat is acknowledged for providing photographic documentation of the tsunami taken one day after the event.

Incorporating Tsunami Projections to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessments -A Case Study for Midway Atoll-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gica, E.; Reynolds, M.

2012-12-01

Recent global models predict a rise of approximately one meter in global sea level by 2100, with potentially larger increases in areas of the Pacific Ocean. If current climate change trends continue, low-lying islands across the globe may become inundated over the next century, placing island biodiversity at risk. Adding to the risk of inundation due to sea level rise is the occurrence of cyclones and tsunamis. This combined trend will affect the low-lying islands of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and it is therefore important to assess its impact since these islands are critical habitats to many endangered endemic species and support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world. The 11 March 2011 Tohoku (Mw=8.8) earthquake-tsunami affected the habitat of many endangered endemic species in Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge because all three islands (Sand, Eastern and Spit) were inundated by tsunami waves. At present sea level, some tsunamis from certain source regions would not affect Midway Atoll. For example, the previous earthquake-tsunamis such as the 15 November 2006 Kuril (Mw=8.1) and 13 February 2007 Kuril (Mw=7.9) were not significant enough to affect Midway Atoll. But at higher sea levels, tsunamis with similar characteristics could pose a threat to such terrestrial habitats and wildlife. To visualize projected impacts to vegetation composition, wildlife habitat, and wildlife populations, we explored and analyzed inundation vulnerability for a range of possible sea level rise and tsunami scenarios at Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge. Studying the combined threat of tsunamis and sea level rise can provide more accurate and comprehensive assessments of the vulnerability of the unique natural resources on low-lying islands. A passive sea level rise model was used to determine how much inundation will occur at different sea level rise values for the three islands of Midway Atoll and each scenario was coupled with NOAA Center for Tsunami Research's tsunami forecasting tool. The tsunami forecasting tool was used to generate tsunami scenarios from different source regions and served as boundary conditions for inundation models to project the coastal impact at Midway Atoll. Underlying the tsunami forecast tool is a database of pre-computed tsunami propagation runs for discrete sections of the earth's subduction zones that are the principal locus of tsunami-generating activity. The new LiDAR topographic data, which is the first high resolution elevation data for three individual islands of Midway Atoll, was used for both the passive sea level rise model and inundation model for Midway Atoll. Results of the study will indicate how the combined climate change and tsunami occurrence will affect Midway Atoll and can therefore be used for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for vulnerable species and areas of the Atoll.

Tsunami waves generated by dynamically triggered aftershocks of the 2010 Haiti earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ten Brink, U. S.; Wei, Y.; Fan, W.; Miller, N. C.; Granja, J. L.

2017-12-01

Dynamically-triggered aftershocks, thought to be set off by the passage of surface waves, are currently not considered in tsunami warnings, yet may produce enough seafloor deformation to generate tsunamis on their own, as judged from new findings about the January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake tsunami in the Caribbean Sea. This tsunami followed the Mw7.0 Haiti mainshock, which resulted from a complex rupture along the north shore of Tiburon Peninsula, not beneath the Caribbean Sea. The mainshock, moreover, had a mixed strike-slip and thrust focal mechanism. There were no recorded aftershocks in the Caribbean Sea, only small coastal landslides and rock falls on the south shore of Tiburon Peninsula. Nevertheless, a tsunami was recorded on deep-sea DART buoy 42407 south of the Dominican Republic and on the Santo Domingo tide gauge, and run-ups of ≤3 m were observed along a 90-km-long stretch of the SE Haiti coast. Three dynamically-triggered aftershocks south of Haiti have been recently identified within the coda of the mainshock (<200 s) by analyzing P wave arrivals recorded by dense seismic arrays, parsing the arrivals into 20-s-long stacks, and back-projecting the arrivals to the vicinity of the main shock (50-300 km). Two of the aftershocks, coming 20-40 s and 40-60 s after the mainshock, plot along NW-SE-trending submarine ridges in the Caribbean Sea south of Haiti. The third event, 120-140 s was located along the steep eastern slope of Bahoruco Peninsula, which is delineated by a normal fault. Forward tsunami models show that the arrival times of the DART buoy and tide gauge times are best fit by the earliest of the three aftershocks, with a Caribbean source 60 km SW of the mainshock rupture zone. Preliminary inversion of the DART buoy time series for fault locations and orientations confirms the location of the first source, but requires an additional unidentified source closer to shore 40 km SW of the mainshock rupture zone. This overall agreement between earthquake and tsunami analyses suggests that land-based earthquake ruptures and/or non-thrust main shocks can generate tsunamis by means of dynamically-triggered aftershocks. It also provides an independent verification to the back-projection seismic method, and it indicates that the active NE-SW shortening of Hispaniola extends southward into the Caribbean Sea.

The tsunami effects of a volcanic island flank collapse on a semi-enclosed basin: The Pico-São Jorge channel in the Azores archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quartau, R.; Omira, R.; Ramalho, I.; Baptista, M. A.; Mitchell, N. C.

2015-12-01

The Azores archipelago is a set of nine volcanic islands in the middle of the North Atlantic, close to the triple junction between the North American, Eurasian and African plates. Due to their location, the islands are seismic and volcanically active, which makes them especially vulnerable to these types of hazards that could eventually trigger flank collapses, capable of generating destructive tsunamis. However, solid evidence of large-scale flank collapses has only been found recently in Pico Island (Costa et al., 2014; Quartau et al., 2015). This study investigates for the first time the tsunami effects of a flank collapse of the northeastern subaerial slope of Pico Island that occurred more than 70 ka ago. We first reconstructed the pre-event sub-aerial morphology of the island, and then numerically model the flank failure involving an estimated volume of ~8 km3, its flow toward and under the sea of ~14 km, and the subsequent tsunami generation and propagation. The modelling suggests that the collapse of Pico created a mega-tsunami that significantly impacted the coast of adjacent São Jorge Island only after 7 minutes after generation, with wave run-up reaching a maximum of 50 m at some coastlines. Most of the tsunami energy became trapped in the semi-enclosed basin between Pico and São Jorge Islands, with only relatively little energy escaping to neighboring islands. Acknowledgments The author wishes to acknowledge the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)" for its major contribution for the success of this study. Publication supported by project FCT UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. The author also acknowledges Fundação Luso-Americana para o Desenvolvimento for supporting the participation in the meeting.

Rescue, Archival and Discovery of Tsunami Events on Marigrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eble, M. C.; Wright, L. M.; Stroker, K. J.; Sweeney, A.; Lancaster, M.

2017-12-01

The Big Earth Data Initiative made possible the reformatting of paper marigram records on which were recorded measurements of the 1946, 1952, 1960, and 1964 tsunamis generated in the Pacific Ocean. Data contained within each record were determined to be invaluable for tsunami researchers and operational agencies with a responsibility for issuing warnings during a tsunami event. All marigrams were carefully digitized and metadata were generated to form numerical datasets in order to provide the tsunami and other research and application-driven communities with quality data. Data were then packaged as CF-compliant netCDF datafiles and submitted to the NOAA Centers for Environmental Information for long-term stewardship, archival, and public discovery of both original scanned images and data in digital netCDF and CSC formats. The PNG plots of each time series were generated and included with data packages to provide a visual representation of the numerical data sets. ISO-compliant metadata were compiled for the collection at the event level and individual DOIs were minted for each of the four events included in this project. The procedure followed to reformat each record in this four-event subset of the larger NCEI scanned marigram inventory is presented and discussed. The practical use of these data is presented to highlight that even infrequent measurements of tsunamis hold information that may potentially help constrain earthquake rupture area, provide estimates of earthquake co-seismic slip distribution, identify subsidence or uplift, and significantly increase the holdings of situ data available for tsunami model validation. These same data may also prove valuable to the broader global tide community for validation and further development of tide models and for investigation into the stability of tidal harmonic constants. Data reformatted as part of this project are PARR compliant and meet the requirements for Data Management, Discoverability, Accessibility, Documentation, Readability, and Data Preservation and Stewardship as per the Big Earth Data Initiative.

Source of high tsunamis along the southernmost Ryukyu trench inferred from tsunami stratigraphy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, Masataka; Kitamura, Akihisa; Tu, Yoko; Ohashi, Yoko; Imai, Takafumi; Nakamura, Mamoru; Ikuta, Ryoya; Miyairi, Yosuke; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Shishikura, Masanobu

2018-01-01

Four paleotsunamis deposits are exposed in a trench on the coastal lowland north of the southern Ryukyu subduction zone trench. Radiocarbon ages on coral and bivalve shells show that the four deposits record tsunamis date from the last 2000 yrs., including a historical tsunami with a maximum run-up of 30 m in 1771, for an average recurrence interval of approximately 600 yrs. Ground fissures in a soil beneath the 1771 tsunami deposit may have been generated by stronger shaking than recorded by historical documents. The repeated occurrence of the paleotsunami deposits supports a tectonic source model on the plate boundary rather than a nontectonic source model, such as submarine landslides. Assuming a thrust model at the subduction zone, the seismic coupling ratio may be as low as 20%.

Modelling tsunami inundation for risk analysis at the Andaman Sea Coast of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, G.; Kortenhaus, A.

2009-04-01

The mega-tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004 strongly impacted the Andaman Sea coast of Thailand and devastated coastal ecosystems as well as towns, settlements and tourism resorts. In addition to the tragic loss of many lives, the destruction or damage of life-supporting infrastructure, such as buildings, roads, water & power supply etc. caused high economic losses in the region. To mitigate future tsunami impacts there is a need to assess the tsunami hazard and vulnerability in flood prone areas at the Andaman Sea coast in order to determine the spatial distribution of risk and to develop risk management strategies. In the bilateral German-Thai project TRAIT research is performed on integrated risk assessment for the Provinces Phang Nga and Phuket in southern Thailand, including a hazard analysis, i.e. modelling tsunami propagation to the coast, tsunami wave breaking and inundation characteristics, as well as vulnerability analysis of the socio-economic and the ecological system in order to determine the scenario-based, specific risk for the region. In this presentation results of the hazard analysis and the inundation simulation are presented and discussed. Numerical modelling of tsunami propagation and inundation simulation is an inevitable tool for risk analysis, risk management and evacuation planning. While numerous investigations have been made to model tsunami wave generation and propagation in the Indian Ocean, there is still a lack in determining detailed inundation patterns, i.e. water depth and flow dynamics. However, for risk management and evacuation planning this knowledge is essential. As the accuracy of the inundation simulation is strongly depending on the available bathymetric and the topographic data, a multi-scale approach is chosen in this work. The ETOPO Global Relief Model as a bathymetric basis and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM90) have been widely applied in tsunami modelling approaches as these data are free and almost world-wide available. However, to model tsunami-induced inundation for risk analysis and management purposes the accuracy of these data is not sufficient as the processes in the near-shore zone cannot be modelled accurately enough and the spatial resolution of the topography is weak. Moreover, the SRTM data provide a digital surface model which includes vegetation and buildings in the surface description. To improve the data basis additional bathymetric data were used in the near shore zone of the Phang Nga and Phuket coastlines and various remote sensing techniques as well as additional GPS measurements were applied to derive a high resolution topography from satellite and airborne data. Land use classifications and filter methods were developed to correct the digital surface models to digital elevation models. Simulations were then performed with a non-linear shallow water model to model the 2004 Asian Tsunami and to simulate possible future ones. Results of water elevation near the coast were compared with field measurements and observations, and the influence of the resolution of the topography on inundation patterns like water depth, velocity, dispersion and duration of the flood were analysed. The inundation simulation provides detailed hazard maps and is considered a reliable basis for risk assessment and risk zone mapping. Results are regarded vital for estimation of tsunami induced damages and evacuation planning. Results of the aforementioned simulations will be discussed during the conference. Differences of the numerical results using topographic data of different scales and modified by different post processing techniques will be analysed and explained. Further use of the results with respect to tsunami risk analysis and management will also be demonstrated.

Tsunami Amplitude Estimation from Real-Time GNSS.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeffries, C.; MacInnes, B. T.; Melbourne, T. I.

2017-12-01

Tsunami early warning systems currently comprise modeling of observations from the global seismic network, deep-ocean DART buoys, and a global distribution of tide gauges. While these tools work well for tsunamis traveling teleseismic distances, saturation of seismic magnitude estimation in the near field can result in significant underestimation of tsunami excitation for local warning. Moreover, DART buoy and tide gauge observations cannot be used to rectify the underestimation in the available time, typically 10-20 minutes, before local runup occurs. Real-time GNSS measurements of coseismic offsets may be used to estimate finite faulting within 1-2 minutes and, in turn, tsunami excitation for local warning purposes. We describe here a tsunami amplitude estimation algorithm; implemented for the Cascadia subduction zone, that uses continuous GNSS position streams to estimate finite faulting. The system is based on a time-domain convolution of fault slip that uses a pre-computed catalog of hydrodynamic Green's functions generated with the GeoClaw shallow-water wave simulation software and maps seismic slip along each section of the fault to points located off the Cascadia coast in 20m of water depth and relies on the principle of the linearity in tsunami wave propagation. The system draws continuous slip estimates from a message broker, convolves the slip with appropriate Green's functions which are then superimposed to produce wave amplitude at each coastal location. The maximum amplitude and its arrival time are then passed into a database for subsequent monitoring and display. We plan on testing this system using a suite of synthetic earthquakes calculated for Cascadia whose ground motions are simulated at 500 existing Cascadia GPS sites, as well as real earthquakes for which we have continuous GNSS time series and surveyed runup heights, including Maule, Chile 2010 and Tohoku, Japan 2011. This system has been implemented in the CWU Geodesy Lab for the Cascadia subduction zone but will be expanded to the circum-Pacific as real-time processing of international GNSS data streams become available.

Characterizing Mega-Earthquake Related Tsunami on Subduction Zones without Large Historical Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. R.; Lee, R.; Astill, S.; Farahani, R.; Wilson, P. S.; Mohammed, F.

2014-12-01

Due to recent large tsunami events (e.g., Chile 2010 and Japan 2011), the insurance industry is very aware of the importance of managing its exposure to tsunami risk. There are currently few tools available to help establish policies for managing and pricing tsunami risk globally. As a starting point and to help address this issue, Risk Management Solutions Inc. (RMS) is developing a global suite of tsunami inundation footprints. This dataset will include both representations of historical events as well as a series of M9 scenarios on subductions zones that have not historical generated mega earthquakes. The latter set is included to address concerns about the completeness of the historical record for mega earthquakes. This concern stems from the fact that the Tohoku Japan earthquake was considerably larger than had been observed in the historical record. Characterizing the source and rupture pattern for the subduction zones without historical events is a poorly constrained process. In many case, the subduction zones can be segmented based on changes in the characteristics of the subducting slab or major ridge systems. For this project, the unit sources from the NOAA propagation database are utilized to leverage the basin wide modeling included in this dataset. The length of the rupture is characterized based on subduction zone segmentation and the slip per unit source can be determined based on the event magnitude (i.e., M9) and moment balancing. As these events have not occurred historically, there is little to constrain the slip distribution. Sensitivity tests on the potential rupture pattern have been undertaken comparing uniform slip to higher shallow slip and tapered slip models. Subduction zones examined include the Makran Trench, the Lesser Antilles and the Hikurangi Trench. The ultimate goal is to create a series of tsunami footprints to help insurers understand their exposures at risk to tsunami inundation around the world.

Tsunami hazard assessment for the Azores archipelago: a historical review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabral, Nuno; Ferreira, Teresa; Queiroz, Maria Gabriela

2010-05-01

The Azores islands due to its complex geographical and geodynamic setting are exposed to tsunamigenic events associated to different triggering mechanisms, local or distant. Since the settlement of the Azores, in the fifteenth century, there are several documents that relate coastal areas flooding episodes with unusually high waves which caused death and destruction. This work had as main objective the characterization of the different events that can be associated with tsunamigenic phenomena, registered in the archipelago. With this aim, it was collected diverse documentation like chronics, manuscripts, newspaper articles and magazines, scientific publications, and international databases available online. From all the studied tsunami events it was identified the occurrence of some teletsunamis, among which the most relevant was triggered by the 1st November 1755 Lisbon earthquake, with an epicenter SW of Portugal, which killed 6 people in Terceira island. It is also noted the teletsunami generated by the 1761 earthquake, located in the same region as the latest, and the one generated in 1929 by an earthquake-triggered submarine landslide in the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. From the local events, originated in the Azores, the most significant were the tsunamis triggered by 1757 and 1980 earthquakes, both associated with the Terceira Rift dynamics. In the first case the waves may also be due to earthquake-triggered. With respect to tsunamis triggered by sea cliffs landslides it is important to mention the 1847 Quebrada Nova and the 1980 Rocha Alta events, both located in the Flores Island. The 1847 event is the deadliest tsunami recorded in Azores since 10 people died in Flores and Corvo islands in result of the propagated wave. The developed studies improve knowledge of the tsunami sources that affected the Azores during its history, also revealing the importance of awareness about this natural phenomenon. The obtained results showed that the tsunami hazard in the Azores is mostly driven from the events triggered by distant earthquakes and local earthquakes and landslides. In this context, were identified 12 tsunami events. In another context, it were identified 6 events associated with coastal areas flooding due to floods and/or extreme weather phenomena, hypothetically identified as meteotsunamis. It should be stressed that, despite the differences associated with their triggering mechanisms, both the tsunamis generated by geological factors and those related to atmospheric phenomena may have similar impact. Although the absence of reports identifying tsunamis associated with volcanic activity, the eruptive history of the Azores active volcanoes shows high magnitude eruptions with considerable tsunamigenic potential.

Solomon Islands 2007 Tsunami Near-Field Modeling and Source Earthquake Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uslu, B.; Wei, Y.; Fritz, H.; Titov, V.; Chamberlin, C.

2008-12-01

The earthquake of 1 April 2007 left behind momentous footages of crust rupture and tsunami impact along the coastline of Solomon Islands (Fritz and Kalligeris, 2008; Taylor et al., 2008; McAdoo et al., 2008; PARI, 2008), while the undisturbed tsunami signals were also recorded at nearby deep-ocean tsunameters and coastal tide stations. These multi-dimensional measurements provide valuable datasets to tackle the challenging aspects at the tsunami source directly by inversion from tsunameter records in real time (available in a time frame of minutes), and its relationship with the seismic source derived either from the seismometer records (available in a time frame of hours or days) or from the crust rupture measurements (available in a time frame of months or years). The tsunami measurements in the near field, including the complex vertical crust motion and tsunami runup, are particularly critical to help interpreting the tsunami source. This study develops high-resolution inundation models for the Solomon Islands to compute the near-field tsunami impact. Using these models, this research compares the tsunameter-derived tsunami source with the seismic-derived earthquake sources from comprehensive perceptions, including vertical uplift and subsidence, tsunami runup heights and their distributional pattern among the islands, deep-ocean tsunameter measurements, and near- and far-field tide gauge records. The present study stresses the significance of the tsunami magnitude, source location, bathymetry and topography in accurately modeling the generation, propagation and inundation of the tsunami waves. This study highlights the accuracy and efficiency of the tsunameter-derived tsunami source in modeling the near-field tsunami impact. As the high- resolution models developed in this study will become part of NOAA's tsunami forecast system, these results also suggest expanding the system for potential applications in tsunami hazard assessment, search and rescue operations, as well as event and post-event planning in the Solomon Islands.

One year after the 1 April 2014 Iquique tsunami field survey along the coasts of Chile and Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, Marcelo; Fritz, Hermann M.

2015-04-01

One year ago on the evening of 1 April, 2014 a magnitude Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred off the coast of northern Chile off the coast of Pisagua within a region of historic quiescence termed the northern Chile seismic gap. The ensuing tsunami inundation caused mostly minor damage centered in Iquique and neighbouring stretches of coastline. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from the past 1868 and 1877 tsunamis in the region along with the recent 2010 Maule tsunami, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. There were no tsunami victims; while a handful of fatalities were associated to earthquake induced building collapses and the physical stress of tsunami evacuation. The Arica native local scientist deployed overnight and started the tsunami survey in Iquique on the day after the earthquake. The international scientist joined the local effort from April 6 to 11, 2014. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns, performance of the navigation infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The ITST covered a 700 km stretch of coastline from the Mejillones Peninsula (23.5° S) north of Antofagasta in Chile up to Vila Vila (18.1° S) in southern Peru. We surveyed 30 locations with differential GPS and laser range finders. The tsunami impact peaked at Caleta Camarones exceeding 5 m in tsunami runup height. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along the coastlines of Chile and Peru both at local and regional scales. The tsunami occurred in the evening hours limiting the availability of eyewitness video footages. Observations from the 2014 Chile tsunami are compared against the 1868, 1877 and 2010 Chile tsunamis. Comparing to other similar magnitude events such as the 2007 Pisco tsunami in Peru the 1 April 2014 tsunami could have been significantly larger. The absence of a massive tsunami may mislead residents to believe another similarly minor tsunami may be generated after a potential future earthquake of similar magnitude. This April fool's day event poses significant challenges to community-based education raising tsunami awareness. The team educated residents about tsunami hazards since awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from near-field tsunamis.

Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

2016-04-01

In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length, width, depth and fault-position. Note that strike is limited with the range obtained from 90 scenarios calculation. From 900 scenarios, we determine the worst tsunami scenarios from disaster management point of view, such as the one with shortest travel time and the highest water level. The method was applied to a hypothetical-earthquake, and verified if it can effectively search the worst tsunami source scenario in real-time, to be used as an input of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting.

Real time assessment of the 15 July 2009 New Zealand tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uslu, Burak; Power, William; Greensdale, Dianne; Titov, Vasily

2010-05-01

On the 15th July 2009 a Mw 7.6 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fiordland in the South Island of New Zealand, about 1200 km from Auckland, New Zealand, 1500 km from Hobart, Tasmania and 1800 km from Sydney, Australia. A tsunami was generated and an initial warning issued by the PTWC. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate issued its first tsunami warning for coastal regions of eastern Australia and New Zealand 24 minutes after the earthquake. By serendipitous coincidence, the earthquake struck while the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk Russia. This provided the opportunity to test, in real-time, several tsunami warning systems in front of attending scientists (Schiermeier, 2009). NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science, and Centre for Australian Weather and Climate scientists were present at the symposium and worked together. Vasily Titov showed "live" NOAA's methodology (Bernard et al, 2006) to assess the tsunami potential and, in consultation with colleagues, provided warning guidance, and the warning was eventually canceled. We discuss how the forecast was done and how accurate the initial determination was. References Bernard E.N. et al., 2006, Tsunami: scientific frontiers, mitigation, forecasting and policy implications, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 364:1989-2007; doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1809 Schiermeier, Q., 2009, Tsunami forecast in real time, Published online 16 July 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.702

Holocene Tsunamis in Avachinsky Bay, Kamchatka, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinegina, Tatiana K.; Bazanova, Lilya I.; Zelenin, Egor A.; Bourgeois, Joanne; Kozhurin, Andrey I.; Medvedev, Igor P.; Vydrin, Danil S.

2018-04-01

This article presents results of the study of tsunami deposits on the Avachinsky Bay coast, Kurile-Kamchatka island arc, NW Pacific. We used tephrochronology to assign ages to the tsunami deposits, to correlate them between excavations, and to restore paleo-shoreline positions. In addition to using established regional marker tephra, we establish a detailed tephrochronology for more local tephra from Avachinsky volcano. For the first time in this area, proximal to Kamchatka's primary population, we reconstruct the vertical runup and horizontal inundation for 33 tsunamis recorded over the past 4200 years, 5 of which are historical events - 1737, 1792, 1841, 1923 (Feb) and 1952. The runup heights for all 33 tsunamis range from 1.9 to 5.7 m, and inundation distances from 40 to 460 m. The average recurrence for historical events is 56 years and for the entire study period 133 years. The obtained data makes it possible to calculate frequencies of tsunamis by size, using reconstructed runup and inundation, which is crucial for tsunami hazard assessment and long-term tsunami forecasting. Considering all available data on the distribution of historical and paleo-tsunami heights along eastern Kamchatka, we conclude that the southern part of the Kamchatka subduction zone generates stronger tsunamis than its northern part. The observed differences could be associated with variations in the relative velocity and/or coupling between the downgoing Pacific Plate and Kamchatka.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.

2009-01-01

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

A comparison between two inundation models for the 25 Ooctober 2010 Mentawai Islands Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Z.; Borrero, J. C.; Qiu, Q.; Hill, E. M.; Li, L.; Sieh, K. E.

2011-12-01

On 25 October 2010, an Mw~7.8 earthquake occurred on the Sumatra megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia, generating a tsunami which killed approximately 500 people. Following the event, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) initiated a post-tsunami field survey, collecting tsunami run-up data from more than 30 sites on Pagai Selatan, Pagai Utara and Sipora. The strongest tsunami effects were observed on several small islands offshore of Pagai Selatan, where runup exceeded 16 m. This presentation will focus on a detailed comparison between two tsunami propagation and inundation models: COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model) and MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami). Simulations are initialized using fault models based on data from a 1-hz GPS system that measured co-seismic deformation throughout the region. Preliminary simulations suggest that 2-m vertical seafloor deformation over a reasonably large area is required to recreate most of the observed tsunami effects. Since the GPS data suggest that subsidence of the islands is small, this implies that the tsunami source region is somewhat narrower and located further offshore than described in recently published earthquake source models based on teleseismic inversions alone. We will also discuss issues such as bathymetric and topographic data preparation and the uncertainty in the modeling results due to the lack of high resolution bathymetry and topography in the study area.

Inversion of tsunami height using ionospheric observations. The case of the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, V.; Lognonne, P. H.; Rolland, L.

2014-12-01

Large and moderate tsunamis generate atmospheric internal gravity waves that are detectable using ionospheric monitoring. Indeed tsunamis of height 2cm and more in open ocean were detected with GPS (Rolland et al. 2010). We present a new method to retrieve the tsunami height from GPS-derived Total Electron Content observations. We present the case of the Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake that occured the 28 october 2012 offshore the Queen Charlotte island near the canadian west coast. This event created a moderate tsunami of 4cm offshore the Hawaii archipelago. Equipped with more than 50 receivers it was possible to image the tsunami-induced ionospheric perturbation. First, our forward model leading to the TEC perturbation follows three steps : (1) 3D modeling of the neutral atmosphere perturbation by summation of tsunami-induced gravity waves normal modes. (2) Coupling of the neutral atmosphere perturbation with the ionosphere to retrieve the electron density perturbation. (3) Integration of the electron density perturbation along each satellite-station ray path. Then we compare this results to the data acquired by the Hawaiian GPS network. Finally, we examine the possibility to invert the TEC data in order to retrieve the tsunami height and waveform. For this we investigate the link between the height of tsunamis and the perturbed TEC in the ionosphere.

Ray Tracing for Dispersive Tsunamis and Source Amplitude Estimation Based on Green's Law: Application to the 2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake Near Torishima, South of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandanbata, Osamu; Watada, Shingo; Satake, Kenji; Fukao, Yoshio; Sugioka, Hiroko; Ito, Aki; Shiobara, Hajime

2018-04-01

Ray tracing, which has been widely used for seismic waves, was also applied to tsunamis to examine the bathymetry effects during propagation, but it was limited to linear shallow-water waves. Green's law, which is based on the conservation of energy flux, has been used to estimate tsunami amplitude on ray paths. In this study, we first propose a new ray tracing method extended to dispersive tsunamis. By using an iterative algorithm to map two-dimensional tsunami velocity fields at different frequencies, ray paths at each frequency can be traced. We then show that Green's law is valid only outside the source region and that extension of Green's law is needed for source amplitude estimation. As an application example, we analyzed tsunami waves generated by an earthquake that occurred at a submarine volcano, Smith Caldera, near Torishima, Japan, in 2015. The ray-tracing results reveal that the ray paths are very dependent on its frequency, particularly at deep oceans. The validity of our frequency-dependent ray tracing is confirmed by the comparison of arrival angles and travel times with those of observed tsunami waveforms at an array of ocean bottom pressure gauges. The tsunami amplitude at the source is nearly twice or more of that just outside the source estimated from the array tsunami data by Green's law.

Holocene Tsunamis in Avachinsky Bay, Kamchatka, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinegina, Tatiana K.; Bazanova, Lilya I.; Zelenin, Egor A.; Bourgeois, Joanne; Kozhurin, Andrey I.; Medvedev, Igor P.; Vydrin, Danil S.

2018-03-01

This article presents results of the study of tsunami deposits on the Avachinsky Bay coast, Kurile-Kamchatka island arc, NW Pacific. We used tephrochronology to assign ages to the tsunami deposits, to correlate them between excavations, and to restore paleo-shoreline positions. In addition to using established regional marker tephra, we establish a detailed tephrochronology for more local tephra from Avachinsky volcano. For the first time in this area, proximal to Kamchatka's primary population, we reconstruct the vertical runup and horizontal inundation for 33 tsunamis recorded over the past 4200 years, 5 of which are historical events - 1737, 1792, 1841, 1923 (Feb) and 1952. The runup heights for all 33 tsunamis range from 1.9 to 5.7 m, and inundation distances from 40 to 460 m. The average recurrence for historical events is 56 years and for the entire study period 133 years. The obtained data makes it possible to calculate frequencies of tsunamis by size, using reconstructed runup and inundation, which is crucial for tsunami hazard assessment and long-term tsunami forecasting. Considering all available data on the distribution of historical and paleo-tsunami heights along eastern Kamchatka, we conclude that the southern part of the Kamchatka subduction zone generates stronger tsunamis than its northern part. The observed differences could be associated with variations in the relative velocity and/or coupling between the downgoing Pacific Plate and Kamchatka.

Operational Tsunami Modelling with TsunAWI for the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System: Recent Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakowsky, N.; Harig, S.; Androsov, A.; Fuchs, A.; Immerz, A.; Schröter, J.; Hiller, W.

2012-04-01

Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. Numerical simulations of prototypic tsunami scenarios play a decisive role in a priori risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. Repositories with currently 3470 regional tsunami scenarios for GITEWS and 1780 Indian Ocean wide scenarios in support of Indonesia as a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP) were computed with the non-linear shallow water modell TsunAWI. It is based on a finite element discretisation, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview on the model itself, the enhancement of the model physics, and the experiences gained during the process of establishing an operational code suited for thousands of model runs. Technical aspects like computation time, disk space needed for each scenario in the repository, or post processing techniques have a much larger impact than they had in the beginning when TsunAWI started as a research code. Of course, careful testing on artificial benchmarks and real events remains essential, but furthermore, quality control for the large number of scenarios becomes an important issue.

Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

2017-08-01

Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

2015-12-01

The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

Tsunami simulation method initiated from waveforms observed by ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami forecast; Applied for 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro

2017-04-01

After tsunami disaster due to the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake, improvement of the tsunami forecast has been an urgent issue in Japan. National Institute of Disaster Prevention is installing a cable network system of earthquake and tsunami observation (S-NET) at the ocean bottom along the Japan and Kurile trench. This cable system includes 125 pressure sensors (tsunami meters) which are separated by 30 km. Along the Nankai trough, JAMSTEC already installed and operated the cable network system of seismometers and pressure sensors (DONET and DONET2). Those systems are the most dense observation network systems on top of source areas of great underthrust earthquakes in the world. Real-time tsunami forecast has depended on estimation of earthquake parameters, such as epicenter, depth, and magnitude of earthquakes. Recently, tsunami forecast method has been developed using the estimation of tsunami source from tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensors. However, when we have many pressure sensors separated by 30km on top of the source area, we do not need to estimate the tsunami source or earthquake source to compute tsunami. Instead, we can initiate a tsunami simulation from those dense tsunami observed data. Observed tsunami height differences with a time interval at the ocean bottom pressure sensors separated by 30 km were used to estimate tsunami height distribution at a particular time. In our new method, tsunami numerical simulation was initiated from those estimated tsunami height distribution. In this paper, the above method is improved and applied for the tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake. Tsunami source model of the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake estimated using observed tsunami waveforms, coseimic deformation observed by GPS and ocean bottom sensors by Gusman et al. (2012) is used in this study. The ocean surface deformation is computed from the source model and used as an initial condition of tsunami simulation. By assuming that this computed tsunami is a real tsunami and observed at ocean bottom sensors, new tsunami simulation is carried out using the above method. The station distribution (each station is separated by 15 min., about 30 km) observed tsunami waveforms which were actually computed from the source model. Tsunami height distributions are estimated from the above method at 40, 80, and 120 seconds after the origin time of the earthquake. The Near-field Tsunami Inundation forecast method (Gusman et al. 2014) was used to estimate the tsunami inundation along the Sanriku coast. The result shows that the observed tsunami inundation was well explained by those estimated inundation. This also shows that it takes about 10 minutes to estimate the tsunami inundation from the origin time of the earthquake. This new method developed in this paper is very effective for a real-time tsunami forecast.

Volcanic tsunamis and prehistoric cultural transitions in Cook Inlet, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beget, J.; Gardner, C.; Davis, K.

2008-01-01

The 1883 eruption of Augustine Volcano produced a tsunami when a debris avalanche traveled into the waters of Cook Inlet. Older debris avalanches and coeval paleotsunami deposits from sites around Cook Inlet record several older volcanic tsunamis. A debris avalanche into the sea on the west side of Augustine Island ca. 450??years ago produced a wave that affected areas 17??m above high tide on Augustine Island. A large volcanic tsunami was generated by a debris avalanche on the east side of Augustine Island ca. 1600??yr BP, and affected areas more than 7??m above high tide at distances of 80??km from the volcano on the Kenai Peninsula. A tsunami deposit dated to ca. 3600??yr BP is tentatively correlated with a southward directed collapse of the summit of Redoubt Volcano, although little is known about the magnitude of the tsunami. The 1600??yr BP tsunami from Augustine Volcano occurred about the same time as the collapse of the well-developed Kachemak culture in the southern Cook Inlet area, suggesting a link between volcanic tsunamis and prehistoric cultural changes in this region of Alaska. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Analysis of Tsunami Evacuation Issues Using Agent Based Modeling. A Case Study of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Yuriage, Natori.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mas, E.; Takagi, H.; Adriano, B.; Hayashi, S.; Koshimura, S.

2014-12-01

The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami reminded that nature can exceed structural countermeasures like seawalls, breakwaters or tsunami gates. In such situations it is a challenging task for people to find nearby haven. This event, as many others before, confirmed the importance of early evacuation, tsunami awareness and the need for developing much more resilient communities with effective evacuation plans. To support reconstruction activities and efforts on developing resilient communities in areas at risk, tsunami evacuation simulation can be applied to tsunami mitigation and evacuation planning. In this study, using the compiled information related to the evacuation behavior at Yuriage in Natori during the 2011 tsunami, we simulated the evacuation process and explored the reasons for the large number of fatalities in the area. It was found that residents did evacuate to nearby shelter areas, however after the tsunami warning was increased some evacuees decided to conduct a second step evacuation to a far inland shelter. Simulation results show the consequences of such decision and the outcomes when a second evacuation would not have been performed. The actual reported number of fatalities in the event and the results from simulation are compared to verify the model. The case study shows the contribution of tsunami evacuation models as tools to be applied for the analysis of evacuees' decisions and the related outcomes. In addition, future evacuation plans and activities for reconstruction process and urban planning can be supported by the results provided from this kind of tsunami evacuation models.

Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.; Geist, E.L.

2008-01-01

We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0 - 30% regionally. ?? irkhaueser 2008.

Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witter, Robert C.; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Wang, Kelin; Priest, George R.; Goldfinger, Chris; Stimely, Laura; English, John T.; Ferro, Paul A.

2013-01-01

Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank each rupture model using a logic tree that evaluates a model’s consistency with geological and geophysical data. The scenarios provide inputs to a hydrodynamic model, SELFE, used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation on unstructured grids with <5–15 m resolution in coastal areas. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that Cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from ∼4 m to 25 m for earthquakes with 9–44 m slip and Mw 8.7–9.2. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the A.D. 1700 and older tsunamis. Tsunami simulations for large (22–30 m slip) and medium (14–19 m slip) splay fault scenarios encompass 80%–95% of all inundation scenarios and provide reasonable guidelines for land-use planning and coastal development. The maximum tsunami inundation simulated for the greatest splay fault scenario (36–44 m slip) can help to guide development of local tsunami evacuation zones.

Near Source 2007 Peru Tsunami Runup Observations and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, J. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Broncano, P.; Ortega, E.

2008-12-01

On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights and massive inundation distances up to 2 km were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. As with all near field tsunamis, the waves struck within minutes of the massive ground shaking. Spontaneous evacuations coordinated by the Peruvian Coast Guard minimized the fatalities and illustrate the importance of community-based education and awareness programs. The residents of the fishing village Lagunilla were unaware of the tsunami hazard after an earthquake and did not evacuate, which resulted in 3 fatalities. Despite the relatively benign tsunami effects at Pisco from this event, the tsunami hazard for this city (and its liquefied natural gas terminal) cannot be underestimated. Between 1687 and 1868, the city of Pisco was destroyed 4 times by tsunami waves. Since then, two events (1974 and 2007) have resulted in partial inundation and moderate damage. The fact that potentially devastating tsunami runup heights were observed immediately south of the peninsula only serves to underscore this point.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program Pr-Nthmp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Hincapie-Cardenas, C. M.

2014-12-01

Tsunami hazard assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts are intended to reduce losses to life and property. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies, to developing tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the National Tsunami Hazards and Mitigation Program (NTHMP). This grant supports the TsunamiReady program which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. The seismic water waves originating in the prominent fault systems around PR are considered to be a near-field hazard for Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands (PR/VI) because they can reach coastal areas within a few minutes after the earthquake. Sources for local, regional and tele tsunamis have been identified and modeled and tsunami evacuation maps were prepared for PR. These maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario (MOM). The run-ups were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Online maps and related evacuation products are available to the public via the PR-TDST (PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool). Currently all the 44 coastal municipalities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the US NWS. The main goal of the program is to declare Puerto Rico as TsunamiReady, including two cities that are not coastal but could be affected by tsunamis. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP project, including the real time earthquake and tsunami monitoring as well as the specific protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach in Puerto Rico.

U.S. states and territories national tsunami hazard assessment, historic record and sources for waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, P. K.; Weaver, C.

2007-12-01

In 2005, the U.S. National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) released a joint report by the sub-committee on Disaster Reduction and the U.S. Group on Earth Observations titled Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action (Framework). The Framework outlines the President's&pstrategy for reducing the United States tsunami risk. The first specific action called for in the Framework is to "Develop standardized and coordinated tsunami hazard and risk assessments for all coastal regions of the United States and its territories." Since NOAA is the lead agency for providing tsunami forecasts and warnings and NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) catalogs information on global historic tsunamis, NOAA/NGDC was asked to take the lead in conducting the first national tsunami hazard assessment. Earthquakes or earthquake-generated landslides caused more than 85% of the tsunamis in the NGDC tsunami database. Since the United States Geological Survey (USGS) conducts research on earthquake hazards facing all of the United States and its territories, NGDC and USGS partnered together to conduct the first tsunami hazard assessment for the United States and its territories. A complete tsunami hazard and risk assessment consists of a hazard assessment, exposure and vulnerability assessment of buildings and people, and loss assessment. This report is an interim step towards a tsunami risk assessment. The goal of this report is provide a qualitative assessment of the United States tsunami hazard at the national level. Two different methods are used to assess the U.S. tsunami hazard. The first method involves a careful examination of the NGDC historical tsunami database. This resulted in a qualitative national tsunami hazard assessment based on the distribution of runup heights and the frequency of runups. Although tsunami deaths are a measure of risk rather than hazard, the known tsunami deaths found in the NGDC database search were compared with the qualitative assessments based on frequency and amplitude. The second method to assess tsunami hazard involved using the USGS earthquake databases to search for possible earthquake sources near American coastlines to extend the NOAA/NGDC tsunami databases backward in time. The qualitative tsunami hazard assessment based on the results of the NGDC and USGS database searches will be presented.

Did a slump source cause the 1929 Grand Banks tsunami?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, F.; Schulten, I.; Mosher, D.; Harbitz, C. B.; Krastel, S.

2017-12-01

On November 18, 1929, a Mw 7.2 earthquake occurred beneath the upper Laurentian Fan, south of Newfoundland. The earthquake displaced about 100 km3 of sediment volume that rapidly evolved into a turbidity current revealed by a series of successive telecommunication cable breaks. A tsunami with fatal consequences along the south coast of Newfoundland also resulted. This tsunami is attributed to sediment mass failure as no seafloor displacement due to the earthquake is observed or expected. Although sidescan sonar, sub-bottom profiler and modern multibeam data show surficial sediment slumping and translational slide activity in the upper part of the slope, no major headscarp, single evacuation area or large mass transport deposit are observed. Sediment mass failure has been interpreted as broadly distributed and shallow, likely occurring in a retrogressive fashion. The question remained, therefore, as to how such complex failure kinematics could generate a tsunami. The Grand Banks tsunami is the only landslide tsunami for which traces are found at transoceanic distances. Despite being a landmark event, only a couple of attempts to model the tsunami exist. None of these have been able to match tsunami observations. Recently acquired seismic reflection data suggest that rotational slumping of a thick sediment mass ( 500 m) on the St. Pierre Slope may have occurred, causing seafloor displacements (fault traces) up to 100 m in height. The previously mapped surficial failures were a consequence of slumping of the thicker mass. Here, we simulate tsunami generation using the new geophysical information to construct different tsunamigenic slump sources. In addition, we undertake simulations assuming a flowing surficial landslide. The numerical simulations shows that its large and rapid vertical displacements render the slump source more tsunamigenic than the alternative surficial landslide. The simulations using the slump source roughly complies with observations of large run-ups on the Burin Peninsula along the south coast of Newfoundland, in contrast to previous modelling attempts. As the source extensions complies with new observations of rotational failures at the slope, the simulations suggest that a slump source is the most likely explanation for the large tsunami observations due to the Grand Banks event.

2006 - 2016: Ten Years Of Tsunami In French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, D.; Jamelot, A.; Hyvernaud, O.

2016-12-01

Located in South central Pacific and despite of its far field situation, the French Polynesia is very much concerned by the tsunamis generated along the major subduction zones located around the Pacific. At the time of writing, 10 tsunamis have been generated in the Pacific Ocean since 2006; all these events recorded in French Polynesia, produced different levels of warning, starting from a simple seismic warning with an information bulletin, up to an effective tsunami warning with evacuation of the coastal zone. These tsunamigenic events represent an invaluable opportunity of evolutions and tests of the tsunami warning system developed in French Polynesia: during the last ten years, the warning rules had evolved from a simple criterion of magnitudes up to the computation of the main seismic source parameters (location, slowness determinant (Newman & Okal, 1998) and focal geometry) using two independent methods: the first one uses an inversion of W-phases (Kanamori & Rivera, 2012) and the second one performs an inversion of long period surface waves (Clément & Reymond, 2014); the source parameters such estimated allow to compute in near real time the expected distributions of tsunami heights (with the help of a super-computer and parallelized codes of numerical simulations). Furthermore, two kinds of numerical modeling are used: the first one, very rapid (performed in about 5minutes of computation time) is based on the Green's law (Jamelot & Reymond, 2015), and a more detailed and precise one that uses classical numerical simulations through nested grids (about 45 minutes of computation time). Consequently, the criteria of tsunami warning are presently based on the expected tsunami heights in the different archipelagos and islands of French Polynesia. This major evolution allows to differentiate and use different levels of warning for the different archipelagos,working in tandem with the Civil Defense. We present the comparison of the historical observed tsunami heights (instrumental records, including deep ocean measurements provided by DART buoys and measured of tsunamis run-up) to the computed ones. In addition, the sites known for their amplification and resonance effects are well reproduced by the numerical simulations.

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Titov, Vasily V.; Arcas, Diego; Pollitz, Fred F.; Bilek, Susan L.

2007-01-01

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup heights caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g., rupture length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake rupture.

Field Survey of the 2015 Ilapel Tsunami in North Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, M.; Fritz, H. M.

2016-12-01

The magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquake in north-central Chile on September 16, 2015 generated a tsunami that rapidly flooded coastal areas. The tsunami impact was concentrated in Coquimbo region, while the regions of Valparaiso and Atacama were also affected. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from the past tsunamis in the region, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. The event caused 11 fatalities: 8 were associated with the tsunami, while 3 were attributed to building collapses caused by the earthquake. The international scientist joined the local effort from September 20 to 26, 2015. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns, performance of the navigation infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The ITST covered a 500 km stretch of coastline from Caleta Chañaral de Aceituno (28.8° S) south of Huasco down to Llolleo near San Antonio (33.6° S). We surveyed more than 40 locations and recorded more than 100 tsunami and runup heights with differential GPS and integrated laser range finders. The tsunami impact peaked at Caleta Totoral near Punta Aldea with both tsunami and runup heights exceeding 10 m as surveyed on September 22. Runup exceeded 10 m at a second uninhabited location some 15 km south of Caleta Totoral. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along the coastlines of central Chile at local and regional scales. The tsunami occurred in the evening hours limiting the availability of eyewitness video footages. Observations from the 2015 Chile tsunami are compared with recent Chilean tsunamis. The tsunami was characterized by rapid arrival within minutes in the nearfield requiring spontaneous self-evacuation as warning messages did not reach some of the hardest hit fishing villages prior to tsunami arrival. The absence of a massive tsunami outside of the Coquimbo region may mislead evacuated residents in the adjacent Atacama and Valparaíso regions of Chile in potential future events. This event poses significant challenges to community-based education raising tsunami awareness.

New Activities of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.

2013-12-01

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is comprised of representatives from coastal states and federal agencies who, under the guidance of NOAA, work together to develop protocols and products to help communities prepare for and mitigate tsunami hazards. Within the NTHMP are several subcommittees responsible for complimentary aspects of tsunami assessment, mitigation, education, warning, and response. The Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS) is comprised of state and federal scientists who specialize in tsunami source characterization, numerical tsunami modeling, inundation map production, and warning forecasting. Until September 2012, much of the work of the MMS was authorized through the Tsunami Warning and Education Act, an Act that has since expired but the spirit of which is being adhered to in parallel with reauthorization efforts. Over the past several years, the MMS has developed guidance and best practices for states and territories to produce accurate and consistent tsunami inundation maps for community level evacuation planning, and has conducted benchmarking of numerical inundation models. Recent tsunami events have highlighted the need for other types of tsunami hazard analyses and products for improving evacuation planning, vertical evacuation, maritime planning, land-use planning, building construction, and warning forecasts. As the program responsible for producing accurate and consistent tsunami products nationally, the NTHMP-MMS is initiating a multi-year plan to accomplish the following: 1) Create and build on existing demonstration projects that explore new tsunami hazard analysis techniques and products, such as maps identifying areas of strong currents and potential damage within harbors as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for land-use planning. 2) Develop benchmarks for validating new numerical modeling techniques related to current velocities and landslide sources. 3) Generate guidance and protocols for the production and use of new tsunami hazard analysis products. 4) Identify multistate collaborations and funding partners interested in these new products. Application of these new products will improve the overall safety and resilience of coastal communities exposed to tsunami hazards.

Sea level oscillations over minute timescales: a global perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, Ivica; Sepic, Jadranka

2016-04-01

Sea level oscillations occurring over minutes to a few hours are an important contributor to sea level extremes, and a knowledge on their behaviour is essential for proper quantification of coastal marine hazards. Tsunamis, meteotsunamis, infra-gravity waves and harbour oscillations may even dominate sea level extremes in certain areas and thus pose a great danger for humans and coastal infrastructure. Aside for tsunamis, which are, due to their enormous impact to the coastlines, a well-researched phenomena, the importance of other high-frequency oscillations to the sea level extremes is still underrated, as no systematic long-term measurements have been carried out at a minute timescales. Recently, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established Sea Level Monitoring Facility portal (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org), making 1-min sea level data publicly available for several hundred tide gauge sites in the World Ocean. Thereafter, a global assessment of oscillations over tsunami timescales become possible; however, the portal contains raw sea level data only, being unchecked for spikes, shifts, drifts and other malfunctions of instruments. We present a quality assessment of these data, estimates of sea level variances and contributions of high-frequency processes to the extremes throughout the World Ocean. This is accompanied with assessment of atmospheric conditions and processes which generate intense high-frequency oscillations.

Geophysical advances triggered by 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haeussler, Peter J.; Leith, William S.; Wald, David J.; Filson, John R.; Wolfe, Cecily; Applegate, David

2014-01-01

A little more than 50 years ago, on 27 March 1964, the Great Alaska earthquake and tsunami struck. At moment magnitude 9.2, this earthquake is notable as the largest in U.S. written history and as the second-largest ever recorded by instruments worldwide. But what resonates today are its impacts on the understanding of plate tectonics, tsunami generation, and earthquake history as well as on the development of national programs to reduce risk from earthquakes and tsunamis.

Rapid Determination of Appropriate Source Models for Tsunami Early Warning using a Depth Dependent Rigidity Curve: Method and Numerical Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Y.; Miranda, G. J. A.; Gusman, A. R.

2017-12-01

Recently, tsunami early warning technique has been improved using tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure gauges such as NOAA DART system or DONET and S-NET systems in Japan. However, for tsunami early warning of near field tsunamis, it is essential to determine appropriate source models using seismological analysis before large tsunamis hit the coast, especially for tsunami earthquakes which generated significantly large tsunamis. In this paper, we develop a technique to determine appropriate source models from which appropriate tsunami inundation along the coast can be numerically computed The technique is tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off Central America. In this study, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, then the fault length and width were determined from scaling relationships. At first, the slip amount was calculated from the seismic moment with a constant rigidity of 3.5 x 10**10N/m2. The tsunami numerical simulation was carried out and compared with the observed tsunami. For the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake, the computed tsunami was much smaller than the observed one. For the 2004 El Astillero earthquake, the computed tsunami was overestimated. In order to solve this problem, we constructed a depth dependent rigidity curve, similar to suggested by Bilek and Lay (1999). The curve with a central depth estimated by the W-phase inversion was used to calculate the slip amount of the fault model. Using those new slip amounts, tsunami numerical simulation was carried out again. Then, the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas for the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake were well explained by the computed one. The other tsunamis from the other three earthquakes were also reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our technique using a depth dependent rigidity curve is worked to estimate an appropriate fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast in Central America. The technique may be worked in the other subduction zones by finding a depth dependent rigidity curve in that particular subduction zone.

Simulation of a Dispersive Tsunami due to the 2016 El Salvador-Nicaragua Outer-Rise Earthquake (M w 6.9)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Ramirez, Amilcar Geovanny Cabrera; Yamanaka, Yusuke

2018-01-01

The 2016 El Salvador-Nicaragua outer-rise earthquake (M w 6.9) generated a small tsunami observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensor, DART 32411, in the Pacific Ocean off Central America. The dispersive observed tsunami is well simulated using the linear Boussinesq equations. From the dispersive character of tsunami waveform, the fault length and width of the outer-rise event is estimated to be 30 and 15 km, respectively. The estimated seismic moment of 3.16 × 1019 Nm is the same as the estimation in the Global CMT catalog. The dispersive character of the tsunami in the deep ocean caused by the 2016 outer-rise El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake could constrain the fault size and the slip amount or the seismic moment of the event.

Simulation of a Dispersive Tsunami due to the 2016 El Salvador-Nicaragua Outer-Rise Earthquake ( M w 6.9)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Ramirez, Amilcar Geovanny Cabrera; Yamanaka, Yusuke

2018-04-01

The 2016 El Salvador-Nicaragua outer-rise earthquake ( M w 6.9) generated a small tsunami observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensor, DART 32411, in the Pacific Ocean off Central America. The dispersive observed tsunami is well simulated using the linear Boussinesq equations. From the dispersive character of tsunami waveform, the fault length and width of the outer-rise event is estimated to be 30 and 15 km, respectively. The estimated seismic moment of 3.16 × 1019 Nm is the same as the estimation in the Global CMT catalog. The dispersive character of the tsunami in the deep ocean caused by the 2016 outer-rise El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake could constrain the fault size and the slip amount or the seismic moment of the event.

Tsunami Source Model of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake inferred from Tide Gauge and Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Y.; Satake, K.

2005-12-01

The tsunami generation process of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake were estimated from the tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges and sea surface heights captured by satellite altimetry measurements over the Indian Ocean. The earthquake (0:58:53, 26, Dec., 2004, UTC), the largest in the last 40 years, caused devastating tsunami damages to the countries around the Indian Ocean. One of the important questions is the source length; the aftershocks were distributed along the Sunda trench for 1000 to 1200 km, from off northwestern part of Sumatra island through Nicobar islands to Andaman island, while seismic wave analyses indicate much shorter source length (several hundred km). We used instrumental data of this tsunami, tide gauges and sea surface heights. Tide gauge data have been collected by Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). We have also used another tide gauges data for tsunami simulation analysis. Tsunami propagation was captured as sea surface heights of Jason-1 satellite altimetry measurements over the Indian Ocean for the first time (Gower, 2005). We numerically compute tsunami propagation on actually bathymetry. ETOPO2 (Smith and Sandwell, 1997), the gridded data of global ocean depth from bathymetry soundings and satellite gravity data, are less reliable in the shallow ocean. To improve the accuracy, we have digitized the charts near coasts and merged the digitized data with the ETOPO2 data. The long-wave equation and the equation of motion were numerically solved by finite-difference method (Satake, 1995). As the initial condition, a static deformation of seafloor has been calculated using rectangular fault model (Okada, 1985). The source region is divided into 22 subfaults. We fixed the size and geometry of each subfault, and varied the slip amount and rise time (or slip duration) for each subfault, and rupture velocity. Tsunami waveforms or Greens functions for each subfault were calculated for the rise times of 3, 10, 30 and 60 minutes. Rupture velocities were varied for 0.7, 1.7 and 2.5 km/s. Forward modeling indicates that the best fits between the observed and computed waveforms were obtained in the case of rupture velocity 1.7 km/s and rise time 3 minutes. The slip was large in the southern part of the source region.

Evaluation of W Phase CMT Based PTWC Real-Time Tsunami Forecast Model Using DART Observations: Events of the Last Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Becker, N. C.; Weinstein, S.; Duputel, Z.; Rivera, L. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Bouchard, R. H.; Mungov, G.

2017-12-01

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) began forecasting tsunamis in real-time using source parameters derived from real-time Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions in 2009. Both the USGS and PTWC typically obtain W-Phase CMT solutions for large earthquakes less than 30 minutes after earthquake origin time. Within seconds, and often before waves reach the nearest deep ocean bottom pressure sensor (DARTs), PTWC then generates a regional tsunami propagation forecast using its linear shallow water model. The model is initialized by the sea surface deformation that mimics the seafloor deformation based on Okada's (1985) dislocation model of a rectangular fault with a uniform slip. The fault length and width are empirical functions of the seismic moment. How well did this simple model perform? The DART records provide a very valuable dataset for model validation. We examine tsunami events of the last decade with earthquake magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 9.0 including some deep events for which tsunamis were not expected. Most of the forecast results were obtained during the events. We also include events from before the implementation of the WCMT method at USGS and PTWC, 2006-2009. For these events, WCMTs were computed retrospectively (Duputel et al. 2012). We also re-ran the model with a larger domain for some events to include far-field DARTs that recorded a tsunami with identical source parameters used during the events. We conclude that our model results, in terms of maximum wave amplitude, are mostly within a factor of two of the observed at DART stations, with an average error of less than 40% for most events, including the 2010 Maule and the 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. However, the simple fault model with a uniform slip is too simplistic for the Tohoku tsunami. We note model results are sensitive to centroid location and depth, especially if the earthquake is close to land or inland. For the 2016 M7.8 New Zealand earthquake the initial forecast underestimated the tsunami because the initial WCMT centroid was on land (the epicenter was inland but most of the slips occurred offshore). Later WCMTs did provide better forecast. The model also failed to reproduce the observed tsunamis from earthquake-generated landslides. Sea level observations during the events are crucial in determining whether or not a forecast needs to be adjusted.

Tsunami normal modes with solid earth and atmospheric coupling and inversion of the TEC data to estimate tsunami water height in the case of the Queen Charlotte tsunami.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, V.; Lognonne, P. H.; Rolland, L.

2016-12-01

Large underwater earthquakes (Mw > 7) can transmit part of their energy to the surrounding ocean through large sea-floor motions, generating tsunamis that propagate over long distances. The forcing effect of long period ocean surface vibrations due to tsunami waves on the atmosphere trigger atmospheric internal gravity waves (IGWs) that induce ionospheric disturbances when they reach the upper atmosphere. In this poster, we study the IGWs associated to tsunamis using a normal modes 1D modeling approach. Our model is first applied to the case of the October 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami observed offshore Hawaii. We found three resonances between tsunami modes and the atmospheric gravity modes occurring around 1.5 mHz, 2 mHz and 2.5 mHz, with a large fraction of the energy of the tsunami modes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere. At theses frequencies, the gravity branches are interacting with the tsunami one and have large amplitude in the ocean. As opposed to the tsunami, a fraction of their energy is therefore transferred from the atmosphere to the ocean. We also show that the fundamental of the gravity waves should arrive before the tsunami due to higher group velocity below 1.6 mHz. We demonstrate that only the 1.5 mHz resonance of the tsunami mode can trigger observable ionospheric perturbations, most often monitored using GPS dual-frequency measurements. Indeed, we show that the modes at 2 mHz and 2.5 mHz are already evanescent at the height of the F2 peak and have little energy in the ionosphere. This normal modes modeling offers a novel and comprehensive study of the transfer function from a propagating tsunami to the upper atmosphere. In particular, we can invert the perturbed TEC data induced by a tsunami in order to estimate the amplitude of the tsunami waveform using a least square method. This method has been performed in the case of the Haida Gwaii tsunami. The results showed a good agreement with the measurement of the dart buoy.

The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.

2009-04-01

Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For sensors on land the processing system delivers deviations from their normal, mean coordinates. The deviations or so called displacements are indicators for land mass movements which can occur, e.g., due to strong earthquakes. The ground motion information is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism with possible relevance for a potentially following tsunami. By this means the GNSS system supports the decision finding process whether most probably a tsunami has been generated or not. For buoy based GNSS data the processing (differential, with GNSS reference station on land) delivers coordinates as well. Only the vertical component is of interest as it corresponds to the instant sea level height. Deviations to the mean sea level height are an indicator for a possibly passing tsunami wave. The graphical user interface (GUI) of the GNSS system supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by GNSS experts. The GNSS GUI system is implemented as a web-based application and allows all views to be displayed on different screens at the same time, even at remote locations. This is part of the concept, as it can support the dialogue between warning centre staff on duty or on standby and sensor station maintenance staff. Acknowledgements The GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Most relevant partners in Indonesia with respect to the GNSS component of GITEWS are the National Coordinating Agency for Surveys and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), the National Metereology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and the National Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01.

Quantifying Coastal Hazard of Airburst-Generated Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V. V.; Boslough, M.

2017-12-01

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid-generated tsunami is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we have run a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles for tsunami modelers to use as source functions. We used hydrocodes to model airburst scenarios and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunami are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa, corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. The blast wave from an airburst propagates at a speed close to a tsunami speed only in the deepest part of the ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be usually achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst can generate tsunami with substantial coastal hazard to contribute to the overall impact risk.

The 8 September 2017 Tsunami Triggered by the M w 8.2 Intraplate Earthquake, Chiapas, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramírez-Herrera, María Teresa; Corona, Néstor; Ruiz-Angulo, Angel; Melgar, Diego; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge

2018-01-01

The 8 September 2017, M w 8.2 earthquake offshore Chiapas, Mexico, is the largest earthquake in recorded history in Chiapas since 1902. It caused damage in the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco, including more than 100 fatalities, over 1.5 million people were affected, and 41,000 homes were damaged in the state of Chiapas alone. This earthquake, an intraplate event on a normal fault on the oceanic subducting plate, generated a tsunami recorded at several tide gauge stations in Mexico and on the Pacific Ocean. Here, we report the physical effects of the tsunami on the Chiapas coast and analyze the societal implications of this tsunami on the basis of our post-tsunami field survey. The associated tsunami waves were recorded first at Huatulco tide gauge station at 5:04 (GMT) 12 min after the earthquake. We covered ground observations along 41 km of the coast of Chiapas, encompassing the sites with the highest projected wave heights based on our preliminary tsunami model (maximum tsunami amplitudes between 94.5° and 93.0°W). Runup and inundation distances were measured along eight sites. The tsunami occurred at low tide. The maximum runup was 3 m at Boca del Cielo, and maximum inundation distance was 190 m in Puerto Arista, corresponding to the coast in front of the epicenter and in the central sector of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Tsunami scour and erosion was evident along the Chiapas coast. Tsunami deposits, mainly sand, reached up to 32 cm thickness thinning landward up to 172 m distance.

The Big Splash: Tsunami from Large Asteroid and Comet Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hills, J.; Goda, M.

Asteroid and comet impacts produce a large range of damage. Tsunami may produce most of the economic damage in large asteroid impacts. Large asteroid impacts produce worldwide darkness lasting several months that may kill more people by mass starvation, especially in developing countries, than would tsunami, but the dust should not severely affect economic infrastructure. The tsunami may even kill more people in developed countries with large coastal populations, such as the United States, than the starvation resulting from darkness. We have been determining which regions of Earth are most susceptible to asteroid tsunami by simulating the effect of a large asteroid impact into mid-ocean. We have modeled the effect of midAtlantic and midPacific impacts that produce craters 300 to 150 km in diameter. A KT-size impactor would cause the larger of these craters. We used a computer code that has successfully determined the runup and inundation from historical earthquake-generated tsunami. The code has been progressively improved to eliminate previous problems at the domain boundaries, so it now runs until the tsunami inundation is complete. We find that the larger of these two midAtlantic impacts would engulf the entire Florida Peninsula. The smaller one would inundate the eastern third of the peninsula while a tsunami passing through the Gulf of Cuba would inundate the West Coast of Florida. Impacts at three different sites in the Pacific show the great vulnerability of Tokyo and its surroundings to asteroid tsunami. Mainland Asia is relatively protected from asteroid tsunami. In Europe, the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic Providences of France are highly vulnerable to asteroid tsunami.

Fault Slip Distribution of the 2016 Fukushima Earthquake Estimated from Tsunami Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Satake, Kenji; Shinohara, Masanao; Sakai, Shin'ichi; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2017-08-01

The 2016 Fukushima normal-faulting earthquake (Mjma 7.4) occurred 40 km off the coast of Fukushima within the upper crust. The earthquake generated a moderate tsunami which was recorded by coastal tide gauges and offshore pressure gauges. First, the sensitivity of tsunami waveforms to fault dimensions and depths was examined and the best size and depth were determined. Tsunami waveforms computed based on four available focal mechanisms showed that a simple fault striking northeast-southwest and dipping southeast (strike = 45°, dip = 41°, rake = -95°) yielded the best fit to the observed waveforms. This fault geometry was then used in a tsunami waveform inversion to estimate the fault slip distribution. A large slip of 3.5 m was located near the surface and the major slip region covered an area of 20 km × 20 km. The seismic moment, calculated assuming a rigidity of 2.7 × 1010 N/m2 was 3.70 × 1019 Nm, equivalent to Mw = 7.0. This is slightly larger than the moments from the moment tensor solutions (Mw 6.9). Large secondary tsunami peaks arrived approximately an hour after clear initial peaks were recorded by the offshore pressure gauges and the Sendai and Ofunato tide gauges. Our tsunami propagation model suggests that the large secondary tsunami signals were from tsunami waves reflected off the Fukushima coast. A rather large tsunami amplitude of 75 cm at Kuji, about 300 km north of the source, was comparable to those recorded at stations located much closer to the epicenter, such as Soma and Onahama. Tsunami simulations and ray tracing for both real and artificial bathymetry indicate that a significant portion of the tsunami wave was refracted to the coast located around Kuji and Miyako due to bathymetry effects.

Tsunami deposits associated with the 7.3 ka caldera-forming eruption of the Kikai Caldera, insights for tsunami generation during submarine caldera-forming eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geshi, Nobuo; Maeno, Fukashi; Nakagawa, Shojiro; Naruo, Hideto; Kobayashi, Tetsuo

2017-11-01

Timing and mechanism of volcanic tsunamis will be a key to understand the dynamics of large-scale submarine explosive volcanism. Tsunami deposits associated with the VEI 7 eruption of the Kikai Caldera at 7.3 ka are found in the Yakushima and Kuchinoerabujima Islands, 40 km south -southeast of the caldera rim. The tsunami deposits distribute along the rivers in their northern coast up to 4.5 km from the river exit and up to 50 m above the present sea level. The tsunami deposits in the Yakushima area consist of pumice-bearing gravels in the lower part of the section (Unit I) and pumiceous conglomerate in the upper part (Unit II). The presence of rounded pebbles of sedimentary rocks, which characterize the beach deposit, indicates a run-up current from the coastal area. The rip-up clasts of the underlying paleosol in Unit I show strong erosion during the invasion of tsunami. Compositional similarity between the pumices in the tsunami deposit and the juvenile materials erupted in the early phase of the Akahoya eruption indicates the formation of tsunami deposit during the early phase of the eruption, which produced the initial Plinian pumice fall and the lower half of the Koya pyroclastic flow. Presence of the dense volcanic components (obsidians and lava fragments) besides pumices in the tsunami deposit supports that they were carried by the Koya pyroclastic flow, and not the pumices floating on the sea surface. Sequential relationship between the Koya pyroclastic flow and the tsunami suggests that the emplacement of the pyroclastic flow into the sea surrounding the caldera is the most probable mechanism of the tsunami.

Signals in the ionosphere generated by tsunami earthquakes: observations and modeling suppor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, L.; Sladen, A.; Mikesell, D.; Larmat, C. S.; Rakoto, V.; Remillieux, M.; Lee, R.; Khelfi, K.; Lognonne, P. H.; Astafyeva, E.

2017-12-01

Forecasting systems failed to predict the magnitude of the 2011 great tsunami in Japan due to the difficulty and cost of instrumenting the ocean with high-quality and dense networks. Melgar et al. (2013) show that using all of the conventional data (inland seismic, geodetic, and tsunami gauges) with the best inversion method still fails to predict the correct height of the tsunami before it breaks onto a coast near the epicenter (< 500 km). On the other hand, in the last decade, scientists have gathered convincing evidence of transient signals in the ionosphere Total Electron Content (TEC) observations that are associated to open ocean tsunami waves. Even though typical tsunami waves are only a few centimeters high, they are powerful enough to create atmospheric vibrations extending all the way to the ionosphere, 300 kilometers up in the atmosphere. Therefore, we are proposing to incorporate the ionospheric signals into tsunami early-warning systems. We anticipate that the method could be decisive for mitigating "tsunami earthquakes" which trigger tsunamis larger than expected from their short-period magnitude. These events are challenging to characterize as they rupture the near-trench subduction interface, in a distant region less constrained by onshore data. As a couple of devastating tsunami earthquakes happens per decade, they represent a real threat for onshore populations and a challenge for tsunami early-warning systems. We will present the TEC observations of the recent Java 2006 and Mentawaii 2010 tsunami earthquakes and base our analysis on acoustic ray tracing, normal modes summation and the simulation code SPECFEM, which solves the wave equation in coupled acoustic (ocean, atmosphere) and elastic (solid earth) domains. Rupture histories are entered as finite source models, which will allow us to evaluate the effect of a relatively slow rupture on the surrounding ocean and atmosphere.

Making Multi-Level Tsunami Evacuation Playbooks Operational in California and Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Peterson, D.; Fryer, G. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Popham, C.; Richards, K.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile, 2011 Japan, and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunamis in California and Hawaii, coastal emergency managers requested that state and federal tsunami programs investigate providing more detailed information about the flood potential and recommended evacuation for distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. Evacuation "Playbooks" for tsunamis of variable sizes and source locations have been developed for some communities in the two states, providing secondary options to an all or nothing approach for evacuation. Playbooks have been finalized for nearly 70% of the coastal communities in California, and have been drafted for evaluation by the communities of Honolulu and Hilo in Hawaii. A key component to determining a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami and making the Playbooks operational has been the development of the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the FASTER flood elevation value will be computed and used to select the appropriate minimum tsunami phase evacuation "Playbook" for use by the coastal communities. The states of California and Hawaii, the tsunami warning centers, and local weather service offices are working together to deliver recommendations on the appropriate evacuation Playbook plans for communities to use prior to the arrival of a distant-source tsunami. These partners are working closely with individual communities on developing conservative and consistent protocols on the use of the Playbooks. Playbooks help provide a scientifically-based, minimum response for small- to moderate-size tsunamis which could reduce the potential for over-evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people and save hundreds of millions of dollars in evacuation costs for communities and businesses.

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

A Sensitivity Analysis of Tsunami Inversions on the Number of Stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Chao; Liu, Philip L.-F.; Meng, Lingsen

2018-05-01

Current finite-fault inversions of tsunami recordings generally adopt as many tsunami stations as possible to better constrain earthquake source parameters. In this study, inversions are evaluated by the waveform residual that measures the difference between model predictions and recordings, and the dependence of the quality of inversions on the number tsunami stations is derived. Results for the 2011 Tohoku event show that, if the tsunami stations are optimally located, the waveform residual decreases significantly with the number of stations when the number is 1 ˜ 4 and remains almost constant when the number is larger than 4, indicating that 2 ˜ 4 stations are able to recover the main characteristics of the earthquake source. The optimal location of tsunami stations is explained in the text. Similar analysis is applied to the Manila Trench in the South China Sea using artificially generated earthquakes and virtual tsunami stations. Results confirm that 2 ˜ 4 stations are necessary and sufficient to constrain the earthquake source parameters, and the optimal sites of stations are recommended in the text. The conclusion is useful for the design of new tsunami warning systems. Current strategies of tsunameter network design mainly focus on the early detection of tsunami waves from potential sources to coastal regions. We therefore recommend that, in addition to the current strategies, the waveform residual could also be taken into consideration so as to minimize the error of tsunami wave prediction for warning purposes.

A protocol for coordinating post-tsunami field reconnaissance efforts in the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Rick I.; Wood, Nathan J.; Kong, Laura; Shulters, Michael V.; Richards, Kevin D.; Dunbar, Paula; Tamura, Gen; Young, Edward J.

2015-01-01

In the aftermath of a catastrophic tsunami, much is to be learned about tsunami generation and propagation, landscape and ecological changes, and the response and recovery of those affected by the disaster. Knowledge of the impacted area directly helps response and relief personnel in their efforts to reach and care for survivors and for re-establishing community services. First-hand accounts of tsunami-related impacts and consequences also help researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in other parts of the world that lack recent events to better understand and manage their own societal risks posed by tsunami threats. Conducting post-tsunami surveys and disseminating useful results to decision makers in an effective, efficient, and timely manner is difficult given the logistical issues and competing demands in a post-disaster environment. To facilitate better coordination of field-data collection and dissemination of results, a protocol for coordinating post-tsunami science surveys was developed by a multi-disciplinary group of representatives from state and federal agencies in the USA. This protocol is being incorporated into local, state, and federal post-tsunami response planning through the efforts of the Pacific Risk Management ‘Ohana, the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, and the U.S. National Plan for Disaster Impact Assessments. Although the protocol was designed to support a coordinated US post-tsunami response, we believe it could help inform post-disaster science surveys conducted elsewhere and further the discussion on how hazard researchers can most effectively operate in disaster environments.

Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

2011-11-01

Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.

Public Perceptions of Tsunamis and the NOAA TsunamiReady Program in Los Angeles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosati, A.

2010-12-01

After the devastating December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, California and other coastal states began installing "Tsunami Warning Zone" and "Evacuation Route" signs at beaches and major access roads. The geography of the Los Angeles area may not be conducive to signage alone for communication of the tsunami risk and safety precautions. Over a year after installation, most people surveyed did not know about or recognize the tsunami signs. More alarming is that many did not believe a tsunami could occur in the area even though earthquake generated waves have reached nearby beaches as recently as September 2009! UPDATE: FEB. 2010. Fifty two percent of the 147 people surveyed did not believe they would survive a natural disaster in Los Angeles. Given the unique geography of Los Angeles, how can the city and county improve the mental health of its citizens before and after a natural disaster? This poster begins to address the issues of community self-efficacy and resiliency in the face of tsunamis. Of note for future research, the data from this survey showed that most people believed climate change would increase the occurrence of tsunamis. Also, the public understanding of water inundation was disturbingly low. As scientists, it is important to understand the big picture of our research - how it is ultimately communicated, understood, and used by the public.

The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongwei; Yuan, Ye; Xu, Zhiguo; Wang, Zongchen; Wang, Juncheng; Wang, Peitao; Gao, Yi; Hou, Jingming; Shan, Di

2017-06-01

The South China Sea (SCS) and its adjacent small basins including Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea are commonly identified as tsunami-prone region by its historical records on seismicity and tsunamis. However, quantification of tsunami hazard in the SCS region remained an intractable issue due to highly complex tectonic setting and multiple seismic sources within and surrounding this area. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is performed in the present study to evaluate tsunami hazard in the SCS region based on a brief review on seismological and tsunami records. 5 regional and local potential tsunami sources are tentatively identified, and earthquake catalogs are generated using Monte Carlo simulation following the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship for each zone. Considering a lack of consensus on magnitude upper bound on each seismic source, as well as its critical role in PTHA, the major concern of the present study is to define the upper and lower limits of tsunami hazard in the SCS region comprehensively by adopting different corner magnitudes that could be derived by multiple principles and approaches, including TGR regression of historical catalog, fault-length scaling, tectonic and seismic moment balance, and repetition of historical largest event. The results show that tsunami hazard in the SCS and adjoining basins is subject to large variations when adopting different corner magnitudes, with the upper bounds 2-6 times of the lower. The probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for specified return periods reveal much higher threat from Cotabato Trench and Sulawesi Trench in the Celebes Sea, whereas tsunami hazard received by the coasts of the SCS and Sulu Sea is relatively moderate, yet non-negligible. By combining empirical method with numerical study of historical tsunami events, the present PTHA results are tentatively validated. The correspondence lends confidence to our study. Considering the proximity of major sources to population-laden cities around the SCS region, the tsunami hazard and risk should be further highlighted in the future.

Tsunami design criteria for coastal infrastructure : a case study for Spencer Creek Bridge, Oregon.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-11-01

The load effects on a coastal bridge due to the impact of a tsunami wave were developed. Three Cascadia Fault : rupture scenarios were considered using the Cornell model and the FVWAVE model to generate the waves for : each scenario. The FVWAVE model...

Using Point Clouds Generated from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Imagery Processed with Structure from Motion to Address Tsunami vs Storm Wave Boulder Deposition in Watu Karung, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uribe, A. T.; Bunds, M. P.; Andreini, J.; Horns, D. M.; Harris, R. A.; Prasetyadi, C.; Yulianto, E.; Putra, P. S.

2017-12-01

Tsunamis pose a major hazard to coastal communities along the south coast of much of Indonesia due its location on the Australian-Sunda arc. Furthermore, tsunamis and high-energy wave events are the principal drivers of geomorphic change in the area and it is difficult to distinguish the effects of each. A potentially useful indicator of past tsunami activity is coastal imbricated boulder deposits. To address whether an imbricated boulder deposit located on a beach in Watu Karung (Java, Indonesia) could have been formed by non-tsunami wave activity and to investigate coastal geomorphic change, we generated three pairs of digital surface models (DSMs) over an approximately one year period using photographs taken from a small unmanned aerial vehicle and structure-from-motion photogrammetry. The first two DSMs were made from photographs taken on 7/30-31/2016 and 8/2/2016, immediately before and after a significant 4.2 m swell struck the beach during a +2.5 m spring high tide. The third DSM pair was made from imagery collected 7/12/2017. Each pair of DSMs consists of a 1 cm pixel DSM of the boulder deposit and a 4 cm DSM of the larger beach area that surrounds the boulders. In addition, prior to the 2016 wave event 21 boulders up to 75 kg were marked and hand-placed shoreward of the boulder deposit; their movement was tracked with RTK GPS measurements. In the 2016 wave event, every hand-placed boulder moved, with an average displacement of 27.6 m. At the same time, approximately 20 of 650 naturally - occurring boulders, up to 2 m in length, moved more than 10 cm and up to 5.6 m. Between 2016 and 2017, approximately 300 of 650 naturally - occurring boulders with an average length of 1.6 m moved varying distances of at least 10 cm and up to 30 m. In addition, changes in beach sand volume occurred in ten 25 m2 localized zones on the beach with an average volume change of approximately 65 m2. Changes in both boulder position and sand volume occurred during the 2016 to 2017 time period when no tsunamis affected Watu Karung—thus indicating that all changes were the result of storm wave events.

Projections of tsunami inundation area coupled with impacts of sea level rise in Banda Aceh, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tursina, Syamsidik, Kato, Shigeru

2017-10-01

In a long term, sea level rise is anticipated to give devastating effects on Banda Aceh, as one of the coastal cities in the northern tip of Sumatra. The growth of the population and buildings in the city has come to the stage where the coastal area is vulnerable to any coastal hazard. Some public facilities and settlements have been constructed and keep expanding in the future. According to TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite images, 7 mm/year the sea level has been risen between 1992 and 2015 in this area. It is estimated that in the next 100 years, there will be 700 mm additional sea level rise which will give a setback more over to a rather flat area around the coast. This research is aim at investigating the influence of sea level rise toward the tsunami inundation on the land area particularly the impacts on Banda Aceh city. Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) simulation numerically generated tsunami propagation. Topography and bathymetry data were collected from GEBCO and updated with the available nautical chart (DISHIDROS, JICA, and field measurements). Geological movement of the underwater fault was generated using Piatanesi and Lorito of 9.15 Mw 2004 multi-fault scenario. The inundation area produced by COMCOT revealed that the inundation area was expanded to several hundred meters from the shoreline. To investigate the impacts of tsunami wave on Banda Aceh, the inundation area were digitized and analyzed with Quantum GIS spatial tools. The Quantum GIS analyzed inundations area affected by the projected tsunami. It will give a new tsunami-prone coastal area map induced by sea level rise in 100 years.

Landslide Tsunami Hazard in Madeira Island, NE Atlantic - Numerical Simulation of the 4 March 1930 Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Quartau, R.; Ramalho, M. I.

2017-12-01

Madeira, the main Island of the Madeira Archipelago with an area of 728 km2, is a North East Atlantic volcanic Island highly susceptible to cliff instability. Historical records contain accounts of a number of mass-wasting events along the Island, namely in 1969, 1804, 1929 and 1930. Collapses of cliffs are major hazards in oceanic Islands as they involve relatively large volumes of material, generating fast running debris avalanches, and even cause destructive tsunamis when entering the sea. On March 4th, 1930, a sector of the Cape Girão cliff, located in the southern shore of Madeira Island, collapsed into the sea and generated an 8 m tsunami wave height. The landslide-induced tsunami propagated along Madeirás south coast and flooded the Vigário beach, 200-300 m of inundation extent, causing 20 casualties. In this study, we investigate the 1930 subaerial landslide-induced tsunami and its impact on the nearest coasts using numerical modelling. We first reconstruct the pre-event morphology of the area, and then simulate the initial movement of the sliding mass, the propagation of the tsunami wave and the inundation of the coast. We use a multi-layer numerical model, in which the lower layer represents the deformable slide, assumed to be a visco-plastic fluid, and bounded above by air, in the subaerial motion phase, and by seawater governed by shallow water equations. The results of the simulation are compared with the historical descriptions of the event to calibrate the numerical model and evaluate the coastal impact of a similar event in present-day coastline configuration of the Island. This work is supported by FCT- project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz and by TROYO project.

Possible Dual Earthquake-Landslide Source of the 13 November 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji

2017-10-01

A complicated earthquake ( M w 7.8) in terms of rupture mechanism occurred in the NE coast of South Island, New Zealand, on 13 November 2016 (UTC) in a complex tectonic setting comprising a transition strike-slip zone between two subduction zones. The earthquake generated a moderate tsunami with zero-to-crest amplitude of 257 cm at the near-field tide gauge station of Kaikoura. Spectral analysis of the tsunami observations showed dual peaks at 3.6-5.7 and 5.7-56 min, which we attribute to the potential landslide and earthquake sources of the tsunami, respectively. Tsunami simulations showed that a source model with slip on an offshore plate-interface fault reproduces the near-field tsunami observation in terms of amplitude, but fails in terms of tsunami period. On the other hand, a source model without offshore slip fails to reproduce the first peak, but the later phases are reproduced well in terms of both amplitude and period. It can be inferred that an offshore source is necessary to be involved, but it needs to be smaller in size than the plate interface slip, which most likely points to a confined submarine landslide source, consistent with the dual-peak tsunami spectrum. We estimated the dimension of the potential submarine landslide at 8-10 km.

Real-Time Detection of Tsunami Ionospheric Disturbances with a Stand-Alone GNSS Receiver: A Preliminary Feasibility Demonstration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savastano, Giorgio; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Mazzoni, Augusto; Crespi, Mattia; Wei, Yong; Mannucci, Anthony J.

2017-04-01

It is well known that tsunamis can produce gravity waves that propagate up to the ionosphere generating disturbed electron densities in the E and F regions. These ionospheric disturbances can be studied in detail using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements collected by continuously operating ground-based receivers from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Here, we present results using a new approach, named VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation), and estimate slant TEC (sTEC) variations in a real-time scenario. Using the VARION algorithm we compute TEC variations at 56 GPS receivers in Hawaii as induced by the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami event. We observe TEC perturbations with amplitudes of up to 0.25 TEC units and traveling ionospheric perturbations (TIDs) moving away from the earthquake epicenter at an approximate speed of 316 m/s. We perform a wavelet analysis to analyze localized variations of power in the TEC time series and we find perturbation periods consistent with a tsunami typical deep ocean period. Finally, we present comparisons with the real-time tsunami MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) model produced by the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research and we observe variations in TEC that correlate in time and space with the tsunami waves.

The 1755 tsunami propagation in Atlantics and its effects on the French West Indies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelinovsky, E.; Zahibo, N.; Yalciner, A.; Zaitsev, A.; Talipova, T.; Chernov, A.; Insel, I.; Dilmen, D.; Ozer, C.; Nikolkina, I.

2009-04-01

The present study examines the propagation of tsunami waves generated by the 1755 Lisbon earthquake in the Atlantic Ocean and its effects on the coasts of the French West Indies in the Caribbean Sea. Historical data of tsunami manifestation in the French West Indies are briefly reproduced. The mathematical model named NAMI DANCE which solves the shallow-water equations has been applied in the computations. Three possible seismic source alternatives of the tsunami source are selected for 1755 event in the simulations. The results obtained from the simulations demonstrate that the directivity of tsunami energy is divided into two strong beams directed to the southern part of North America (Florida, the Bahamas) and to the northern part of South America (Brazil). The tsunami waves reach the Lesser Antilles in 7 hrs. The computed distribution of tsunami wave height along the coasts of Guadeloupe and Martinique are presented. Calculated maximum of wave amplitudes reached 2 m in Guadeloupe and 1.5 m in Martinique. These results are also in agreement with observed data (1.8 - 3 m). The experience and data obtained in this study show that transatlantic events must also be considered in the tsunami hazard assessment and development of mitigation strategies for the French West Indies.

Real-Time Detection of Tsunami Ionospheric Disturbances with a Stand-Alone GNSS Receiver: A Preliminary Feasibility Demonstration

PubMed Central

Savastano, Giorgio; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Mazzoni, Augusto; Crespi, Mattia; Wei, Yong; Mannucci, Anthony J.

2017-01-01

It is well known that tsunamis can produce gravity waves that propagate up to the ionosphere generating disturbed electron densities in the E and F regions. These ionospheric disturbances can be studied in detail using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements collected by continuously operating ground-based receivers from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Here, we present results using a new approach, named VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation), and estimate slant TEC (sTEC) variations in a real-time scenario. Using the VARION algorithm we compute TEC variations at 56 GPS receivers in Hawaii as induced by the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami event. We observe TEC perturbations with amplitudes of up to 0.25 TEC units and traveling ionospheric perturbations (TIDs) moving away from the earthquake epicenter at an approximate speed of 316 m/s. We perform a wavelet analysis to analyze localized variations of power in the TEC time series and we find perturbation periods consistent with a tsunami typical deep ocean period. Finally, we present comparisons with the real-time tsunami MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) model produced by the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research and we observe variations in TEC that correlate in time and space with the tsunami waves. PMID:28429754

Real-Time Detection of Tsunami Ionospheric Disturbances with a Stand-Alone GNSS Receiver: A Preliminary Feasibility Demonstration.

PubMed

Savastano, Giorgio; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Mazzoni, Augusto; Crespi, Mattia; Wei, Yong; Mannucci, Anthony J

2017-04-21

It is well known that tsunamis can produce gravity waves that propagate up to the ionosphere generating disturbed electron densities in the E and F regions. These ionospheric disturbances can be studied in detail using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements collected by continuously operating ground-based receivers from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Here, we present results using a new approach, named VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation), and estimate slant TEC (sTEC) variations in a real-time scenario. Using the VARION algorithm we compute TEC variations at 56 GPS receivers in Hawaii as induced by the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami event. We observe TEC perturbations with amplitudes of up to 0.25 TEC units and traveling ionospheric perturbations (TIDs) moving away from the earthquake epicenter at an approximate speed of 316 m/s. We perform a wavelet analysis to analyze localized variations of power in the TEC time series and we find perturbation periods consistent with a tsunami typical deep ocean period. Finally, we present comparisons with the real-time tsunami MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) model produced by the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research and we observe variations in TEC that correlate in time and space with the tsunami waves.

An unified numerical simulation of seismic ground motion, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations and tsunamis of 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Furumura, T.; Noguchi, S.; Takemura, S.; Iwai, K.; Lee, S.; Sakai, S.; Shinohara, M.

2011-12-01

The fault rupture of the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) earthquake spread approximately 550 km by 260 km with a long source rupture duration of ~200 s. For such large earthquake with a complicated source rupture process the radiation of seismic wave from the source rupture and initiation of tsunami due to the coseismic deformation is considered to be very complicated. In order to understand such a complicated process of seismic wave, coseismic deformation and tsunami, we proposed a unified approach for total modeling of earthquake induced phenomena in a single numerical scheme based on a finite-difference method simulation (Maeda and Furumura, 2011). This simulation model solves the equation of motion of based on the linear elastic theory with equilibrium between quasi-static pressure and gravity in the water column. The height of tsunami is obtained from this simulation as a vertical displacement of ocean surface. In order to simulate seismic waves, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations, and tsunami from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we assembled a high-resolution 3D heterogeneous subsurface structural model of northern Japan. The area of simulation is 1200 km x 800 km and 120 km in depth, which have been discretized with grid interval of 1 km in horizontal directions and 0.25 km in vertical direction, respectively. We adopt a source-rupture model proposed by Lee et al. (2011) which is obtained by the joint inversion of teleseismic, near-field strong motion, and coseismic deformation. For conducting such a large-scale simulation, we fully parallelized our simulation code based on a domain-partitioning procedure which achieved a good speed-up by parallel computing up to 8192 core processors with parallel efficiency of 99.839%. The simulation result demonstrates clearly the process in which the seismic wave radiates from the complicated source rupture over the fault plane and propagating in heterogeneous structure of northern Japan. Then, generation of tsunami from coseismic ground deformation at sea floor due to the earthquake and propagation is also well demonstrated . The simulation also demonstrates that a very large slip up to 40 m at shallow plate boundary near the trench pushes up sea floor with source rupture propagation, and the highly elevated sea surface gradually start propagation as tsunamis due to the gravity. The result of simulation of vertical-component displacement waveform matches the ocean-bottom pressure gauge record which is installed just above the source fault area (Maeda et al., 2011) very consistently. Strong reverberation of the ocean-acoustic waves between sea surface and sea bottom particularly near the Japan Trench for long time after the source rupture ends is confirmed in the present simulation. Accordingly, long wavetrains of high-frequency ocean acoustic waves is developed and overlap to later tsunami waveforms as we found in the observations.

A simple model for calculating tsunami flow speed from tsunami deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, B.E.; Gelfenbuam, G.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a simple model for tsunami sedimentation that can be applied to calculate tsunami flow speed from the thickness and grain size of a tsunami deposit (the inverse problem). For sandy tsunami deposits where grain size and thickness vary gradually in the direction of transport, tsunami sediment transport is modeled as a steady, spatially uniform process. The amount of sediment in suspension is assumed to be in equilibrium with the steady portion of the long period, slowing varying uprush portion of the tsunami. Spatial flow deceleration is assumed to be small and not to contribute significantly to the tsunami deposit. Tsunami deposits are formed from sediment settling from the water column when flow speeds on land go to zero everywhere at the time of maximum tsunami inundation. There is little erosion of the deposit by return flow because it is a slow flow and is concentrated in topographic lows. Variations in grain size of the deposit are found to have more effect on calculated tsunami flow speed than deposit thickness. The model is tested using field data collected at Arop, Papua New Guinea soon after the 1998 tsunami. Speed estimates of 14??m/s at 200??m inland from the shoreline compare favorably with those from a 1-D inundation model and from application of Bernoulli's principle to water levels on buildings left standing after the tsunami. As evidence that the model is applicable to some sandy tsunami deposits, the model reproduces the observed normal grading and vertical variation in sorting and skewness of a deposit formed by the 1998 tsunami.

High tsunami risk at northern tip of Sumatra as a result of the activity of the Sumatra Fault Zone (SFZ) combined with coastal landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haridhi, H. A.; Huang, B. S.; Wen, K. L.; Mirza, A.; Rizal, S.; Purnawan, S.; Fajri, I.; Klingelhoefer, F.; Liu, C. S.; Lee, C. S.; Wilson, C. R.

2017-12-01

The lesson learned from the 12 January 2010, Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake has shown that an earthquake with strike-slip faulting can produce a significant tsunami. This occasion is rare since in the fact of the fault consist predominantly of lateral motion, which is rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. Yet, another hint from this event, that this earthquake was accompanied by a coastal landslide. Again, there were only few records of a submarine slides as a primary source that generate a tsunami. Hence, the Haiti Mw 7.0 earthquake was generated by these combined mechanisms, i.e. strike-slip faulting earthquake and coastal landslide. In reflecting this event, the Sumatra region exhibit almost identical situation, where the right lateral strike-slip faulting of Sumatra Fault Zone (SFZ) is located. In this study, we are focusing at the northern tip of SFZ at Aceh Province. The reason we focused our study at its northern tip is that, since the Sumatra-Andaman mega earthquake and tsunami on 26 December 2004, which occurred at the subduction zone, there were no records of significant earthquake along the SFZ, where at this location the SFZ is divided into two faults, i.e. Aceh and Seulimeum faults. This study aimed as a mitigation effort, if an earthquake happened at these faults, do we observe a similar result as that happened at Haiti or not. To do so, we access the high-resolution shallow bathymetry data that acquired through a Community-Based Bathymetric Survey (CBBS), examines five scanned Single Channel Seismic (SCS) reflections data, perform the slope stability analysis and that simulate the tsunami using Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) model with a combined source of fault activity and submarine landslide. The result shows that, by these combined mechanisms, if the earthquake as large as 7 Mw or larger, it could produce a tsunami as high as 6 meters along the coast. The detailed shallow bathymetric and the slope stability results indicate that the slope is close to failure and that the SCS reflection shows a turbidites type unconformity that indicate an evidence of past submarine landslide. We concluded that, there is a high risk of an event that is similar to Haiti occurred at Aceh province.

Tsunami process: From upper mantle to atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ershov, S.; Mikhaylovskaya, I.; Novik, O.

Earthquakes in near sea regions and/or tsunamis are manifestations of powerful geodynamic processes beneath the Ocean floor (75 % of the Earth' surface). An effective monitoring of these large-scale processes is not possible without satellites as well as without understanding of physical nature of signals accompanying these processes, e.g. connection between parameters of a seismic excitation in ocean lithosphere and electromagnetic (EM) signals in atmosphere. Basing on the theory of elasticity, electrodynamics, fluid dynamics and geophysical data we formulate a nonlinear mathematical model of generation and propagation of seismo-EM signals in the basin of a marginal sea including transfer of seismic and EM energy from upper mantle to hydrosphere and EM emission into atmosphere up to ionosphere domain D. For a model basin approximately similar to the central part of the Sea of Japan, we calculate signals caused by moderate elastic displacements (EDs): the ampl of a few cm, the main freq. 0.01-10 Hz and duration up to 10 sec (by runs with different acceptable data) which are supposed to be arising at the moment t=0 at the bottom of the upper mantle layer M. The EM signal appears near the bottom of the conductive (0.02 S/m) layer M and reaches for the sea bottom by t=3.5 sec with the ampl. Of 50 pT. This signal propagate in sea water (4 S/m) rather slowly and seems to be "frozen": its front is located near the sea bottom and is replicating the bottom's configuration up to the moment (t=5.2 sec) of the seismic P wave (from M) arrival at the sea bottom. The EM field is generated in seismically disturbed sea water in presence of the geomagnetic field" a specific structure of a seismo-hydrodynamic flow, a spatial break of the diffusive magnetic field, joining of its contours, and other details of the seismo-hydro-EM tsunami process are shown to clear out the out the physical nature of its signals. By the moderate EDs (above), the magnetic signal (freq. 0.01-10 Hz, i.e. the same as the EDs' freq.) is of order of a few hundreds of pT at the ocean-atmosphere interface and of order of a few tens of hydrodynamic wave's amplitude far from the shore is too small (20 cm) and EM observations are needed to discover this threatening wave. The computed signals' characteristics are of orders observed. The recommendations for the EM monitoring (at a sea bottom, surface, and atmosphere) of seismic excitations in ocean lithosphere and tsunamis are given.

Optimal Design for Placements of Tsunami Observing Systems to Accurately Characterize the Inducing Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulia, Iyan E.; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Satake, Kenji

2017-12-01

Recently, there are numerous tsunami observation networks deployed in several major tsunamigenic regions. However, guidance on where to optimally place the measurement devices is limited. This study presents a methodological approach to select strategic observation locations for the purpose of tsunami source characterizations, particularly in terms of the fault slip distribution. Initially, we identify favorable locations and determine the initial number of observations. These locations are selected based on extrema of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spatial modes. To further improve the accuracy, we apply an optimization algorithm called a mesh adaptive direct search to remove redundant measurement locations from the EOF-generated points. We test the proposed approach using multiple hypothetical tsunami sources around the Nankai Trough, Japan. The results suggest that the optimized observation points can produce more accurate fault slip estimates with considerably less number of observations compared to the existing tsunami observation networks.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoechner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey Y.; Zamora, Natalia

2016-06-01

Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoechner, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Zamora, N.

2015-09-01

Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

2016-04-01

The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk assessment refers to the selection of optimal routes and times needed for evacuation from certain points within the inundation zone to a number of shelters outside the zone. The three different approaches were evaluated as for their overall contribution in the development of a plan for the tsunami risk mitigation. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.

The July 17, 2006 Java Tsunami: Tsunami Modeling and the Probable Causes of the Extreme Run-up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kongko, W.; Schlurmann, T.

2009-04-01

On 17 July 2006, an Earthquake magnitude Mw 7.8 off the south coast of west Java, Indonesia generated tsunami that affected over 300 km of south Java coastline and killed more than 600 people. Observed tsunami heights and field measurement of run-up distributions were uniformly scattered approximately 5 to 7 m along a 200 km coastal stretch; remarkably, a locally focused tsunami run-up height exceeding 20 m at Nusakambangan Island has been observed. Within the framework of the German Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) Project, a high-resolution near-shore bathymetrical survey equipped by multi-beam echo-sounder has been recently conducted. Additional geodata have been collected using Intermap Technologies STAR-4 airborne interferometric SAR data acquisition system on a 5 m ground sample distance basis in order to establish a most-sophisticated Digital Terrain Model (DTM). This paper describes the outcome of tsunami modelling approaches using high resolution data of bathymetry and topography being part of a general case study in Cilacap, Indonesia, and medium resolution data for other area along coastline of south Java Island. By means of two different seismic deformation models to mimic the tsunami source generation, a numerical code based on the 2D nonlinear shallow water equations is used to simulate probable tsunami run-up scenarios. Several model tests are done and virtual points in offshore, near-shore, coastline, as well as tsunami run-up on the coast are collected. For the purpose of validation, the model results are compared with field observations and sea level data observed at several tide gauges stations. The performance of numerical simulations and correlations with observed field data are highlighted, and probable causes for the extreme wave heights and run-ups are outlined. References Ammon, C.J., Kanamori, K., Lay, T., and Velasco, A., 2006. The July 2006 Java Tsunami Earthquake, Geophysical Research Letters, 33(L24308). Fritz, H.M., Kongko, W., Moore, A., McAdoo, B., Goff, J., Harbitz, C., Uslu, B., Kalligeris, N., Suteja, D., Kalsum, K., Titov, V., Gusman, A., Latief, H., Santoso, E., Sujoko, S., Djulkarnaen, D., Sunendar, H., and Synolakis, C., 2007. Extreme Run-up from the 17 July 2006 Java Tsunami. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(L12602). Fujii, Y., and Satake, K., 2006. Source of the July 2006 Java Tsunami Estimated from Tide Gauge Records. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(L23417). Intermap Federal Services Inc., 2007. Digital Terrain Model Cilacap, version 1. Project of GITEWS, DLR Germany. Kongko, W., and Leschka, S., 2008. Nearshore Bathymetry Measurements in Indonesia: Part 1. Cilacap, Technical Report, DHI-WASY GmbH Syke Germany. Kongko, W., Suranto, Chaeroni, Aprijanto, Zikra, and SUjantoko, 2006, Rapid Survey on Tsunami Jawa 17 July 2006, http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/java20060717/tsunami-java170706_e.pdf Lavigne, F., Gomes, C., Giffo, M., Wassmer, P., Hoebreck, C., Mardiatno, D., Prioyono, J., and Paris R., 2007. Field Observation of the 17 July 2006 Tsunami in Java. Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences, 7: 177-183.

Tsunami-driven gravity waves in the presence of vertically varying background and tidal wind structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laughman, B.; Fritts, D. C.; Lund, T. S.

2017-05-01

Many characteristics of tsunami-driven gravity waves (TDGWs) enable them to easily propagate into the thermosphere and ionosphere with appreciable amplitudes capable of producing detectable perturbations in electron densities and total electron content. The impact of vertically varying background and tidal wind structures on TDGW propagation is investigated with a series of idealized background wind profiles to assess the relative importance of wave reflection, critical-level approach, and dissipation. These numerical simulations employ a 2-D nonlinear anelastic finite-volume neutral atmosphere model which accounts for effects accompanying vertical gravity wave (GW) propagation such as amplitude growth with altitude. The GWs are excited by an idealized tsunami forcing with a 50 cm sea surface displacement, a 400 km horizontal wavelength, and a phase speed of 200 ms-1 consistent with previous studies of the tsunami generated by the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake. Results indicate that rather than partial reflection and trapping, the dominant process governing TDGW propagation to thermospheric altitudes is refraction to larger and smaller vertical scales, resulting in respectively larger and smaller vertical group velocities and respectively reduced and increased viscous dissipation. Under all considered background wind profiles, TDGWs were able to attain ionospheric altitudes with appreciable amplitudes. Finally, evidence of nonlinear effects is observed and the conditions leading to their formation is discussed.

GIS data for the Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study to modernize FEMA flood hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Florence L.; Venturato, Angie J.; Geist, Eric L.

2007-01-01

A Tsunami Pilot Study was conducted for the area surrounding the coastal town of Seaside, Oregon, as part of the Federal Emergency Management's (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Map Modernization Program (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Cascadia subduction zone extends from Cape Mendocino, California, to Vancouver Island, Canada. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities subject to tsunamis generated by far- and near-field (Cascadia) earthquakes. Two goals of the pilot study were to develop probabilistic 100-year and 500-year tsunami inundation maps using Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) and to provide recommendations for improving tsunami hazard assessment guidelines for FEMA and state and local agencies. The study was an interagency effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, and FEMA, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. The pilot study model data and results are published separately as a geographic information systems (GIS) data report (Wong and others, 2006). The flood maps and GIS data are briefly described here.

Multiple sources for late-Holocene tsunamis at Discovery Bay, Washington State, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, H.F.L.; Hutchinson, I.; Nelson, A.R.

2005-01-01

Nine muddy sand beds interrupt a 2500-yr-old sequence of peat deposits beneath a tidal marsh at the head of Discovery Bay on the south shore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington. An inferred tsunami origin for the sand beds is assessed by means of six criteria. Although all the sand beds contain marine diatoms and almost all the beds display internal stratification, the areal extent of the oldest beds is too limited to confirm their origin as tsunami deposits. The ages of four beds overlap with known late-Holocene tsunamis generated by plate-boundary earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. Diatom assemblages in peat deposits bracketing these four beds do not indicate concurrent change in elevation at Discovery Bay. Diatoms in the peat bracketing a tsunami bed deposited about 1000 cal. yr BP indicate a few decimeters of submergence, suggesting deformation on a nearby upper-plate fault. Other beds may mark tsunamis caused by more distant upper-plate earthquakes or local submarine landslides triggered by earthquake shaking. Tsunamis from both subduction zone and upper-plate sources pose a significant hazard to shoreline areas in this region.

Public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Chapter M in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Laurie; Real, Chuck

2013-01-01

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). In addition to the work performed by the authors on public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR tsunami scenario, this section of the scenario also reflects the policy discussions of the State of California’s Tsunami Policy Work Group, a voluntary advisory body formed in October 2011, which operates under the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA), Department of Conservation, and is charged with identifying, evaluating, and making recommendations to resolve issues that are preventing full and effective implementation of tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction throughout California’s coastal communities. It also presents the analyses of plans and hazard policies of California’s coastal counties, incorporated cities, and major ports performed by the staff of the California Geological Survey (CGS) and Lauren Prehoda, Office of Environmental and Government Affairs, California Department of Conservation. It also draws on the policy framework and assessment prepared for the ARkStorm Pacific Coast winter storm and catastrophic flooding (Topping and others, 2010).

Coastal Tsunami and Risk Assessment for Eastern Mediterranean Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kentel, E.; Yavuz, C.

2017-12-01

Tsunamis are rarely experienced events that have enormous potential to cause large economic destruction on the critical infrastructures and facilities, social devastation due to mass casualty, and environmental adverse effects like erosion, accumulation and inundation. Especially for the past two decades, nations have encountered devastating tsunami events. The aim of this study is to investigate risks along the Mediterranean coastline due to probable tsunamis based on simulations using reliable historical data. In order to do this, 50 Critical Regions, CRs, (i.e. city centers, agricultural areas and summer villages) and 43 Critical Infrastructures, CIs, (i.e. airports, ports & marinas and industrial structures) are determined to perform people-centered risk assessment along Eastern Mediterranean region covering 7 countries. These countries include Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, and Libya. Bathymetry of the region is given in Figure 1. In this study, NAMI-DANCE is used to carry out tsunami simulations. Source of a sample tsunami simulation and maximum wave propagation in the study area for this sample tsunami are given in Figures 2 and 3, respectively.Richter magnitude,, focal depth, time of occurrence in a day and season are considered as the independent parameters of the earthquake. Historical earthquakes are used to generate reliable probability distributions for these parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) Simulations are carried out to evaluate overall risks at the coastline. Inundation level, population density, number of passenger or employee, literacy rate, annually income level and existence of human are used in risk estimations. Within each MC simulation and for each grid in the study area, people-centered tsunami risk for each of the following elements at risk is calculated: i. City centers ii. Agricultural areas iii. Summer villages iv. Ports and marinas v. Airports vi. Industrial structures Risk levels at each grid along the shoreline are calculated based on the factors given above, grouped into low, medium and high risk, and used in generating the risk map. The risk map will be useful in prioritizing areas that require development of tsunami mitigation measures.

Atmospheric resonances of the Rayleigh and tsunami normal modes and its sensitivity to local time and geographical location.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, V.; Astafyeva, E.; Lognonne, P. H.

2017-12-01

It is known that natural hazard events, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcano eruptions, etc. can generate atmospheric/ionospheric perturbations. During earthquakes, vertical displacements of the ground or of the ocean floor generate acoustic-gravity waves that further propagate upward in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. In turn, tsunamis propagating in the open sea, generate gravity waves which propagate obliquely and reach the ionosphere in 45-60 min. The properties of the atmospheric "channel" in the vertical and oblique propagation depend on a variety of factors such as solar and geomagnetic conditions, latitude, local time, season, and their influence on propagation and properties of co-seismic and co-tsunamic perturbations is not well understood yet. In this work, we use present a detailed study of the coupling efficiency between solid earth, ocean and atmosphere. For this purpose, we use the normal mode technique extended to the whole solid Earth-ocean-atmosphere system. In our study, we focus on the Rayleigh modes (solid modes) and tsunami modes (oceanic modes). As the normal modes amplitude are also depending on the spatial and temporal variation of the structure of the atmosphere, we also performed a sensitivity study location of the normal modes amplitude with local time and geographical position.

An Optimal Design for Placements of Tsunami Observing Systems Around the Nankai Trough, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulia, I. E.; Gusman, A. R.; Satake, K.

2017-12-01

Presently, there are numerous tsunami observing systems deployed in several major tsunamigenic regions throughout the world. However, documentations on how and where to optimally place such measurement devices are limited. This study presents a methodological approach to select the best and fewest observation points for the purpose of tsunami source characterizations, particularly in the form of fault slip distributions. We apply the method to design a new tsunami observation network around the Nankai Trough, Japan. In brief, our method can be divided into two stages: initialization and optimization. The initialization stage aims to identify favorable locations of observation points, as well as to determine the initial number of observations. These points are generated based on extrema of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spatial modes derived from 11 hypothetical tsunami events in the region. In order to further improve the accuracy, we apply an optimization algorithm called a mesh adaptive direct search (MADS) to remove redundant measurements from the initially generated points by the first stage. A combinatorial search by the MADS will improve the accuracy and reduce the number of observations simultaneously. The EOF analysis of the hypothetical tsunamis using first 2 leading modes with 4 extrema on each mode results in 30 observation points spread along the trench. This is obtained after replacing some clustered points within the radius of 30 km with only one representative. Furthermore, the MADS optimization can improve the accuracy of the EOF-generated points by approximately 10-20% with fewer observations (23 points). Finally, we compare our result with the existing observation points (68 stations) in the region. The result shows that the optimized design with fewer number of observations can produce better source characterizations with approximately 20-60% improvement of accuracies at all the 11 hypothetical cases. It should be note, however, that our design is a tsunami-based approach, some of the existing observing systems are equipped with additional devices to measure other parameter of interests, i.e., for monitoring seismic activities.

Modeling Extra-Long Tsunami Propagation: Assessing Data, Model Accuracy and Forecast Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V. V.; Moore, C. W.; Rabinovich, A.

2017-12-01

Detecting and modeling tsunamis propagating tens of thousands of kilometers from the source is a formidable scientific challenge and seemingly satisfies only scientific curiosity. However, results of such analyses produce a valuable insight into the tsunami propagation dynamics, model accuracy and would provide important implications for tsunami forecast. The Mw = 9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that devastated Indian Ocean coastlines and spread into the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The tsunami was recorded by a great number of coastal tide gauges, including those located in 15-25 thousand kilometers from the source area. To date, it is still the farthest instrumentally detected tsunami. The data from these instruments throughout the world oceans enabled to estimate various statistical parameters and energy decay of this event. High-resolution records of this tsunami from DARTs 32401 (offshore of northern Chile), 46405 and NeMO (both offshore of the US West Coast), combined with the mainland tide gauge measurements enabled us to examine far-field characteristics of the 2004 in the Pacific Ocean and to compare the results of global numerical simulations with the observations. Despite their small heights (less than 2 cm at deep-ocean locations), the records demonstrated consistent spatial and temporal structure. The numerical model described well the frequency content, amplitudes and general structure of the observed waves at deep-ocean and coastal gages. We present analysis of the measurements and comparison with model data to discuss implication for tsunami forecast accuracy. Model study for such extreme distances from the tsunami source and at extra-long times after the event is an attempt to find accuracy bounds for tsunami models and accuracy limitations of model use for forecast. We discuss results in application to tsunami model forecast and tsunami modeling in general.

Beach recovery after 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami from Phang-nga, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choowong, Montri; Phantuwongraj, Sumet; Charoentitirat, Thasinee; Chutakositkanon, Vichai; Yumuang, Sombat; Charusiri, Punya

2009-03-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami devastated the coastal areas along the Andaman western coast of Thailand and left unique physical evidence of its impact, including the erosional landforms of the pre-tsunami topography. Here we show the results from monitoring the natural recovery of beach areas at Khuk Khak and Bang Niang tidal channels of Khao Lak area, Phang-nga, Thailand. A series of satellite images before and after the tsunami event was employed for calculating the beach area and locating the position of the changed shoreline. Field surveys to follow-up the development of the post-tsunami beach area were conducted from 2005 to 2007 and the yearly beach profile was measured in 2006. As a result, the scoured beach areas where the tidal channel inlets were located underwent continuous recovery. The return of post-tsunami sediments within the beach zone was either achieved by normal wind and wave processes or during the storm surges in the rainy season. Post-2004 beach sediments were derived mainly from near offshore sources. The present situation of the beach zone has almost completed reversion back to the equilibrium stage and this has occurred within 2 years after the tsunami event. We suggest these results provide a better understanding of the geomorphological process involved in beach recovery after severe erosion such as by tsunami events.

Real-Time Detection of Tsunami Ionospheric Disturbances with a Stand-Alone GNSS Receiver: An Integration of GPS and Galileo Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savastano, Giorgio; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Wei, Yong; Mazzoni, Augusto; Crespi, Mattia

2017-04-01

Tsunamis can produce gravity waves that propagate up to the ionosphere generating disturbed electron densities in the E and F regions. These ionospheric disturbances are studied in detail using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements collected by continuously operating ground-based receivers from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Here, we present results using a new approach, named VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation), and for the first time, we estimate slant TEC (sTEC) variations in a real-time scenario from GPS and Galileo constellations. Specifically, we study the 2016 New Zealand tsunami event using GNSS receivers with multi-constellation tracking capabilities located in the Pacific region. We compare sTEC estimates obtained using GPS and Galileo constellations. The efficiency of the real-time sTEC estimation using the VARION algorithm has been demonstrated for the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami event. TEC variations induced by the tsunami event are computed using 56 GPS receivers in Hawai'i. We observe TEC perturbations with amplitudes up to 0.25 TEC units and traveling ionospheric disturbances moving away from the epicenter at a speed of about 316 m/s. We present comparisons with the real-time tsunami model MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) provided by the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research. We observe variations in TEC that correlate well in time and space with the propagating tsunami waves. We conclude that the integration of different satellite constellations is a crucial step forward to increasing the reliability of real-time tsunami detection systems using ground-based GNSS receivers as an augmentation to existing tsunami early warning systems.

Geologic Evidence of Tsunamigenic Earthquakes from the Southern Part of the Japan Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilarczyk, J.; Sawai, Y.; Namegaya, Y.; Tamura, T.; Tanigawa, K.; Matsumoto, D.; Shinozaki, T.; Fujiwara, O.; Shishikura, M.; Shimada, Y.; Dura, T.; Horton, B.

2017-12-01

The northern and southern parts of the Japan Trench have generated earthquakes with moment magnitudes up to 8.0. Similarly, the middle part of the Japan Trench has historically generated tsunamigenic-earthquakes up to M 7.0. However, in 2011, the Tohoku-oki (M 9.0) event ruptured 500 km along the middle part of the Japan Trench and generated the largest known tsunami to have originated from this part of the subduction zone. Seismic models indicate that the Tohoku-oki earthquake may have transferred stress southwards down the fault to the potentially locked southern part of the Japan Trench. It is unknown if this transfer of stress could produce an earthquake and tsunami that would impact the metropolitan areas of east-central Japan in the near future that may be comparable in magnitude to the Tohoku-oki event. Here, we reconstruct the history of individual great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis using geological records from the coastal zone adjacent to the southern part of the Japan Trench, providing an assessment of the seismic hazard for metropolitan areas in east-central Japan. In the Kujukuri strand plain, we found three anomalous marine sand layers intercalated within muddy peat, which can be traced 3.8 km inland and 50 km along the present Kujukuri coastline. Each sand layer has features consistent with tsunami deposits, such as a distinct erosional base, rip-up clasts, normal grading, and a mud drape. Preliminary radiocarbon dating suggests three tsunamis inundated the Kujukuri coastline over the last millennium.

Tsunami sediments and their grain size characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulastya Putra, Purna

2018-02-01

Characteristics of tsunami deposits are very complex as the deposition by tsunami is very complex processes. The grain size characteristics of tsunami deposits are simply generalized no matter the local condition in which the deposition took place. The general characteristics are fining upward and landward, poor sorting, and the grain size distribution is not unimodal. Here I review the grain size characteristics of tsunami deposit in various environments: swale, coastal marsh and lagoon/lake. Review results show that although there are similar characters in some environments and cases, but in detail the characteristics in each environment can be distinguished; therefore, the tsunami deposit in each environment has its own characteristic. The local geological and geomorphological condition of the environment may greatly affect the grain size characteristics.

Development of Tsunami Numerical Model Considering the Disaster Debris such as Cars, Ships and Collapsed Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozono, Y.; Takahashi, T.; Sakuraba, M.; Nojima, K.

2016-12-01

A lot of debris by tsunami, such as cars, ships and collapsed buildings were generated in the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. It is useful for rescue and recovery after tsunami disaster to predict the amount and final position of disaster debris. The transport form of disaster debris varies as drifting, rolling and sliding. These transport forms need to be considered comprehensively in tsunami simulation. In this study, we focused on the following three points. Firstly, the numerical model considering various transport forms of disaster debris was developed. The proposed numerical model was compared with the hydraulic experiment by Okubo et al. (2004) in order to verify transport on the bottom surface such as rolling and sliding. Secondly, a numerical experiment considering transporting on the bottom surface and drifting was studied. Finally, the numerical model was applied for Kesennuma city where serious damage occurred by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. In this model, the influence of disaster debris was considered as tsunami flow energy loss. The hydraulic experiments conducted in a water tank which was 10 m long by 30 cm wide. The gate confined water in a storage tank, and acted as a wave generator. A slope was set at downstream section. The initial position of a block (width: 3.2 cm, density: 1.55 g/cm3) assuming the disaster debris was placed in front of the slope. The proposed numerical model simulated well the maximum transport distance and the final stop position of the block. In the second numerical experiment, the conditions were the same as the hydraulic experiment, except for the density of the block. The density was set to various values (from 0.30 to 4.20 g/cm3). This model was able to estimate various transport forms including drifting and sliding. In the numerical simulation of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, the condition of buildings was modeled as follows: (i)the resistance on the bottom using Manning roughness coefficient (conventional method), and (ii)structure of buildings with collapsing and washing-away due to tsunami wave pressure. In this calculation, disaster debris of collapsed buildings, cars and ships was considered. As a result, the proposed model showed that it is necessary to take the disaster debris into account in order to predict tsunami inundation accurately.

What is the fault that has generated the earthquake on 8 September 1905 in Calabria, Italy? Source models compared by tsunami data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano; Loreto, Maria Filomena; Facchin, Lorenzo

2014-05-01

The earthquake that the 8 September 1905 hit Calabria in southern Italy was the second Italian earthquake for magnitude in the last century. It destroyed many villages along the coast of the Gulf of Sant'Eufemia, caused more than 500 fatalities and has also generated a tsunami with non-destructive effects. The historical reports tell us that the tsunami caused major damage in the villages of Briatico, Bivona, Pizzo and Vibo Marina, located in the south part of the Sant'Eufemia gulf and minor damage to Tropea and to Scalea, this one being village located about 100 km far from the epicenter. Other reports include accounts of fishermen at sea during the tsunami. Further, the tsunami is visible on tide gauge records in Messina, Sicily, in Naples and in Civitavecchia, a harbour located to the north of Rome (Platania, 1907) In spite of the attention devoted by researchers to this case, until now, like for other tsunamigenic Italian earthquakes, the genetic structure of the earthquake is still not identified and debate is still open. In this context, tsunami simulations can provide contributions useful to find the source model more consistent with observational data. This approach was already followed by Piatanesi and Tinti (2002), who carried out numerical simulations of tsunamis from a number of local sources. In the last decade studies on this seismogenic area were int ensified resulting in new estimates for the 1905 earthquake magnitude (7.1 according to the CPTI11 catalogue) and in the suggestion of new source models. By using an improved tsunami simulation model, more accurate bathymetry data, this work tests the source models investigated by Piatanesi and Tinti (2002) and in addition the new fault models proposed by Cucci and Tertulliani (2010) and by Loreto et al. (2013). The simulations of the tsunami are calculated by means of the code, UBO-TSUFD, that solves the linear equations of Navier-Stokes in approximation of shallow water with the finite-difference technique, while the initial conditions are calculated via Okada's formula. The key-result used to test the models against the data is the maximum height of the tsunami calculated close to the shore at a minimum depth of 5m corrected using the values of the initial coseismic field deformation.

Tsunami early warning system for the western coast of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionescu, Constantin; Partheniu, Raluca; Cioflan, Carmen; Constantin, Angela; Danet, Anton; Diaconescu, Mihai; Ghica, Daniela; Grecu, Bogdan; Manea, Liviu; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Moldovan, Iren; Neagoe, Cristian; Radulian, Mircea; Raileanu, Victor; Verdes, Ioan

2014-05-01

The Black Sea area is liable to tsunamis generation and the statistics show that more than twenty tsunamis have been observed in the past. The last tsunami was observed on 31st of March 1901 in the western part of the Black Sea, in the Shabla area. An earthquake of magnitude generated at a depth of 15 km below the sea level , triggered tsunami waves of 5 m height and material losses as well. The oldest tsunami ever recorded close to the Romanian shore-line dates from year 104. This paper emphasises the participation of The National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) to the development of a tsunami warning system for the western cost of the Black Sea. In collaboration with the National Institute for Marine Geology and Geoecology (GeoEcoMar), the Institute of Oceanology and the Geological Institute, the last two belonging to the Bulgarian Academy of Science, NIEP has participated as partner, to the cross-border project "Set-up and implementation of key core components of a regional early-warning system for marine geohazards of risk to the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea coastal area - MARINEGEOHAZARDS", coordinated by GeoEcoMar. The main purpose of the project was the implementation of an integrated early-warning system accompanied by a common decision-support tool, and enhancement of regional technical capability, for the adequate detection, assessment, forecasting and rapid notification of natural marine geohazards for the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea cross-border area. In the last years, NIEP has increased its interest on the marine related hazards, such as tsunamis and, in collaboration with other institutions of Romania, is acting to strengthen the cooperation and data exchanges with institutions from the Black Sea surrounding countries which already have tsunami monitoring infrastructures. In this respect, NIEP has developed a coastal network for marine seismicity, by installing three new seismic stations in the coastal area of the Black Sea, Sea Level Sensors, Radar and Pressure sensors, Meteorological and GNSS stations at every site, providing tide gauges and seismic data exchange with the Black Sea countries. At the same time, the Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) software, for inundation modelling, along with it's RedPhone application, were also installed at the National Data Centre in Magurele city, and also at Dobrogea Seismic Observatory in the city of Eforie Nord, close to the Black Sea shore.

A Self-Consistent Fault Slip Model for the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Lay, Thorne

2018-02-01

The unprecedented geophysical and hydrographic data sets from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami have facilitated numerous modeling and inversion analyses for a wide range of dislocation models. Significant uncertainties remain in the slip distribution as well as the possible contribution of tsunami excitation from submarine slumping or anelastic wedge deformation. We seek a self-consistent model for the primary teleseismic and tsunami observations through an iterative approach that begins with downsampling of a finite fault model inverted from global seismic records. Direct adjustment of the fault displacement guided by high-resolution forward modeling of near-field tsunami waveform and runup measurements improves the features that are not satisfactorily accounted for by the seismic wave inversion. The results show acute sensitivity of the runup to impulsive tsunami waves generated by near-trench slip. The adjusted finite fault model is able to reproduce the DART records across the Pacific Ocean in forward modeling of the far-field tsunami as well as the global seismic records through a finer-scale subfault moment- and rake-constrained inversion, thereby validating its ability to account for the tsunami and teleseismic observations without requiring an exotic source. The upsampled final model gives reasonably good fits to onshore and offshore geodetic observations albeit early after-slip effects and wedge faulting that cannot be reliably accounted for. The large predicted slip of over 20 m at shallow depth extending northward to 39.7°N indicates extensive rerupture and reduced seismic hazard of the 1896 tsunami earthquake zone, as inferred to varying extents by several recent joint and tsunami-only inversions.

Influence of Earthquake Parameters on Tsunami Wave Height and Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulangara Madham Subrahmanian, D.; Sri Ganesh, J.; Venkata Ramana Murthy, M.; V, R. M.

2014-12-01

After Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) on 26th December, 2004, attempts are being made to assess the threat of tsunami originating from different sources for different parts of India. The Andaman - Sumatra trench is segmented by transcurrent faults and differences in the rate of subduction which is low in the north and increases southward. Therefore key board model with initial deformation calculated using different strike directions, slip rates, are used. This results in uncertainties in the earthquake parameters. This study is made to identify the location of origin of most destructive tsunami for Southeast coast of India and to infer the influence of the earthquake parameters in tsunami wave height travel time in deep ocean as well as in the shelf and inundation in the coast. Five tsunamigenic sources were considered in the Andaman - Sumatra trench taking into consideration the tectonic characters of the trench described by various authors and the modeling was carried out using TUNAMI N2 code. The model results were validated using the travel time and runup in the coastal areas and comparing the water elevation along Jason - 1's satellite track. The inundation results are compared from the field data. The assessment of the tsunami threat for the area south of Chennai city the metropolitan city of South India shows that a tsunami originating in Car Nicobar segment of the Andaman - Sumatra subduction zone can generate the most destructive tsunami. Sensitivity analysis in the modelling indicates that fault length influences the results significantly and the tsunami reaches early and with higher amplitude. Strike angle is also modifying the tsunami followed by amount of slip.

Rapid tsunami models and earthquake source parameters: Far-field and local applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2005-01-01

Rapid tsunami models have recently been developed to forecast far-field tsunami amplitudes from initial earthquake information (magnitude and hypocenter). Earthquake source parameters that directly affect tsunami generation as used in rapid tsunami models are examined, with particular attention to local versus far-field application of those models. First, validity of the assumption that the focal mechanism and type of faulting for tsunamigenic earthquakes is similar in a given region can be evaluated by measuring the seismic consistency of past events. Second, the assumption that slip occurs uniformly over an area of rupture will most often underestimate the amplitude and leading-wave steepness of the local tsunami. Third, sometimes large magnitude earthquakes will exhibit a high degree of spatial heterogeneity such that tsunami sources will be composed of distinct sub-events that can cause constructive and destructive interference in the wavefield away from the source. Using a stochastic source model, it is demonstrated that local tsunami amplitudes vary by as much as a factor of two or more, depending on the local bathymetry. If other earthquake source parameters such as focal depth or shear modulus are varied in addition to the slip distribution patterns, even greater uncertainty in local tsunami amplitude is expected for earthquakes of similar magnitude. Because of the short amount of time available to issue local warnings and because of the high degree of uncertainty associated with local, model-based forecasts as suggested by this study, direct wave height observations and a strong public education and preparedness program are critical for those regions near suspected tsunami sources.

Performances of the New Real Time Tsunami Detection Algorithm applied to tide gauges data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chierici, F.; Embriaco, D.; Morucci, S.

2017-12-01

Real-time tsunami detection algorithms play a key role in any Tsunami Early Warning System. We have developed a new algorithm for tsunami detection (TDA) based on the real-time tide removal and real-time band-pass filtering of seabed pressure time series acquired by Bottom Pressure Recorders. The TDA algorithm greatly increases the tsunami detection probability, shortens the detection delay and enhances detection reliability with respect to the most widely used tsunami detection algorithm, while containing the computational cost. The algorithm is designed to be used also in autonomous early warning systems with a set of input parameters and procedures which can be reconfigured in real time. We have also developed a methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations to test the tsunami detection algorithms. The algorithm performance is estimated by defining and evaluating statistical parameters, namely the detection probability, the detection delay, which are functions of the tsunami amplitude and wavelength, and the occurring rate of false alarms. In this work we present the performance of the TDA algorithm applied to tide gauge data. We have adapted the new tsunami detection algorithm and the Monte Carlo test methodology to tide gauges. Sea level data acquired by coastal tide gauges in different locations and environmental conditions have been used in order to consider real working scenarios in the test. We also present an application of the algorithm to the tsunami event generated by Tohoku earthquake on March 11th 2011, using data recorded by several tide gauges scattered all over the Pacific area.

A Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Tsunami Disaster Prevention in Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horns, D. M.; Hall, S.; Harris, R. A.

2016-12-01

The island of Java in Indonesia is the most densely populated island on earth, and is situated within one of the most tectonically active regions on the planet. Deadly tsunamis struck Java in 1994 and 2006. We conducted an assessment of tsunami hazards on the south coast of Java using a team of geologists, public health professionals, and disaster education specialists. The social science component included tsunami awareness surveys, education in communities and schools, evacuation drills, and evaluation. We found that the evacuation routes were generally appropriate for the local hazard, and that most people were aware of the routes and knew how to use them. However, functional tsunami warning systems were lacking in most areas and knowledge of natural warning signs was incomplete. We found that while knowledge of when to evacuate improved after our educational lesson, some incorrect beliefs persisted (e.g. misconceptions about types of earthquakes able to generate tsunamis and how far inland tsunamis can reach). There was a general over-reliance on government to alert when evacuation is needed as well as reluctance on the part of local leaders to take initiative to sound tsunami alerts. Many people on earth who are at risk of tsunamis live in areas where the government lacks resources to maintain a functional tsunami warning system. The best hope for protecting those people is direct education working within the local cultural belief system. Further collaboration is needed with government agencies to design consistent and repeated messages challenging misperceptions about when to evacuate and to encourage individuals to take personal responsibility based on natural warning signs.

Integrated Historical Tsunami Event and Deposit Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, P. K.; McCullough, H. L.

2010-12-01

The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) provides integrated access to historical tsunami event, deposit, and proxy data. The NGDC tsunami archive initially listed tsunami sources and locations with observed tsunami effects. Tsunami frequency and intensity are important for understanding tsunami hazards. Unfortunately, tsunami recurrence intervals often exceed the historic record. As a result, NGDC expanded the archive to include the Global Tsunami Deposits Database (GTD_DB). Tsunami deposits are the physical evidence left behind when a tsunami impacts a shoreline or affects submarine sediments. Proxies include co-seismic subsidence, turbidite deposits, changes in biota following an influx of marine water in a freshwater environment, etc. By adding past tsunami data inferred from the geologic record, the GTD_DB extends the record of tsunamis backward in time. Although the best methods for identifying tsunami deposits and proxies in the geologic record remain under discussion, developing an overall picture of where tsunamis have affected coasts, calculating recurrence intervals, and approximating runup height and inundation distance provides a better estimate of a region’s true tsunami hazard. Tsunami deposit and proxy descriptions in the GTD_DB were compiled from published data found in journal articles, conference proceedings, theses, books, conference abstracts, posters, web sites, etc. The database now includes over 1,200 descriptions compiled from over 1,100 citations. Each record in the GTD_DB is linked to its bibliographic citation where more information on the deposit can be found. The GTD_DB includes data for over 50 variables such as: event description (e.g., 2010 Chile Tsunami), geologic time period, year, deposit location name, latitude, longitude, country, associated body of water, setting during the event (e.g., beach, lake, river, deep sea), upper and lower contacts, underlying and overlying material, etc. If known, the tsunami source mechanism (e.g., earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, asteroid impact) is also specified. Observations (grain size, sedimentary structure, bed thickness, number of layers, etc.) are stored along with the conclusions drawn from the evidence by the author (wave height, flow depth, flow velocity, number of waves, etc.). Geologic time periods in the GTD_DB range from Precambrian to Quaternary, but the majority (70%) are from the Quaternary period. This period includes events such as: the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis, the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, the A.D. 79 Vesuvius tsunami, the 3500 BP Santorini caldera collapse and tsunami, and the 7000 BP Storegga landslide-generated tsunami. Prior to the Quaternary period, the majority of the paleotsunamis are due to impact events such as: the Tertiary Chesapeake Bay Bolide, Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) Boundary, Cretaceous Manson, and Devonian Alamo. The tsunami deposits are integrated with the historical tsunami event database where applicable. For example, users can search for articles describing deposits related to the 1755 Lisbon tsunami and view those records, as well as link to the related historic event record. The data and information may be viewed using tools designed to extract and display data (selection forms, Web Map Services, and Web Feature Services).

Challenges and Alternatives in Tsunami Water Levels Processing in NOAA/NCEI-CO Global Water-Level Data Repository

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mungov, G.; Dunbar, P. K.; Stroker, K. J.; Sweeney, A.

2016-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information is data repository for high-resolution, integrated water-level data to support tsunami research, risk assessment and mitigation to protect life and property damages along the coasts. NCEI responsibilities include, but are not limited to process, archiv and distribut and coastal water level data from different sourcesg tsunami and storm-surge inundation, sea-level change, climate variability, etc. High-resolution data for global historical tsunami events are collected by the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART®) tsunameter network maintained by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center NDBC, coastal tide-gauges maintained by NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) and Tsunami Warning Centers, historic marigrams and images, bathymetric data, and from other national and international sources. NCEI-CO water level database is developed in close collaboration with all data providers along with NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. We outline here the present state in water-level data processing regarding the increasing needs for high-precision, homogeneous and "clean" tsunami records from data different sources and different sampling interval. Two tidal models are compared: the Mike Foreman's improved oceanographic model (2009) and the Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion approach applied by Tamura et al. (1991). The effects of filtering and the limits of its application are also discussed along with the used method for de-spiking the raw time series.

Multi-sensor investigation of the Sumatran Tsunami: observations and analysis of hydroacoustic, seismic, infrasonic, and tide gauge data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, J.; Pulli, J.; Gibson, R.; Upton, Z.

2005-05-01

We present an analysis of the acoustic signals from the December 26, 2004 Sumatra earthquakes, in conjunction with the seismic and tide gauge information from the event. The M9.0 mainshock and its aftershocks were recorded by a suite of seismic sensors around the globe, giving us information on its location and the source process. Recently installed sensor assets in the Indian Ocean have enabled us to study additional features of this significant event. Hydroacoustic signals were recorded by three hydrophone arrays, and the direction finding capability of these arrays allows us to examine the location, time and extent of the T-wave generation process. We detect a clear variation of the back-azimuth that is consistent with the spatial extent of the source rupture. Recordings from nearly co-located seismometers provide insights into the acoustic-to-seismic conversion process for T-waves at islands, along with the variation in signal characteristics with source size. Two separate infrasound arrays detect the atmospheric signals generated by the event, along with additional observations of the seismic surface wave and the T-phase. We will present a comparison of the signals from the mainshock, as a function of location and size, with those from aftershocks and similar events in the nearby region. Our acoustic observations compare favorably with model predictions of wave propagation in the region. For the hydroacoustic data, the azimuth, arrival time, and signal blockage characteristics, from three separate arrays, associate the onset of the signal with the mainshock and with a time extent consistent with the rupture propagation. Our analysis of the T-phase travel times suggests that the seismic-to-acoustic conversion occurs more than 100 km from the epicenter. The infrasound signal's arrival time and signal duration are consistent with both stratospheric and thermospheric propagation from a source region near the mainshock. We use the tide gauge data from stations around the Indian Ocean to identify the arrival time of the Tsunami. The acoustic and seismic signals associated with the earthquakes arrive at the remote stations significantly ahead of the Tsunami. We combine the information from the various sensors to investigate the ability of the acoustic stations to detect the Tsunami.

Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

2016-04-01

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

Errors in Tsunami Source Estimation from Tide Gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcas, D.

2012-12-01

Linearity of tsunami waves in deep water can be assessed as a comparison of flow speed, u to wave propagation speed √gh. In real tsunami scenarios this evaluation becomes impractical due to the absence of observational data of tsunami flow velocities in shallow water. Consequently the extent of validity of the linear regime in the ocean is unclear. Linearity is the fundamental assumption behind tsunami source inversion processes based on linear combinations of unit propagation runs from a deep water propagation database (Gica et al., 2008). The primary tsunami elevation data for such inversion is usually provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) deep-water tsunami detection systems known as DART. The use of tide gauge data for such inversions is more controversial due to the uncertainty of wave linearity at the depth of the tide gauge site. This study demonstrates the inaccuracies incurred in source estimation using tide gauge data in conjunction with a linear combination procedure for tsunami source estimation.

Tsunami waves extensively resurfaced the shorelines of an early Martian ocean

PubMed Central

Rodriguez, J. Alexis P.; Fairén, Alberto G.; Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Zarroca, Mario; Linares, Rogelio; Platz, Thomas; Komatsu, Goro; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Yan, Jianguo; Gulick, Virginia; Higuchi, Kana; Baker, Victor R.; Glines, Natalie

2016-01-01

It has been proposed that ~3.4 billion years ago an ocean fed by enormous catastrophic floods covered most of the Martian northern lowlands. However, a persistent problem with this hypothesis is the lack of definitive paleoshoreline features. Here, based on geomorphic and thermal image mapping in the circum-Chryse and northwestern Arabia Terra regions of the northern plains, in combination with numerical analyses, we show evidence for two enormous tsunami events possibly triggered by bolide impacts, resulting in craters ~30 km in diameter and occurring perhaps a few million years apart. The tsunamis produced widespread littoral landforms, including run-up water-ice-rich and bouldery lobes, which extended tens to hundreds of kilometers over gently sloping plains and boundary cratered highlands, as well as backwash channels where wave retreat occurred on highland-boundary surfaces. The ice-rich lobes formed in association with the younger tsunami, showing that their emplacement took place following a transition into a colder global climatic regime that occurred after the older tsunami event. We conclude that, on early Mars, tsunamis played a major role in generating and resurfacing coastal terrains. PMID:27196957

Tsunami waves extensively resurfaced the shorelines of an early Martian ocean.

PubMed

Rodriguez, J Alexis P; Fairén, Alberto G; Tanaka, Kenneth L; Zarroca, Mario; Linares, Rogelio; Platz, Thomas; Komatsu, Goro; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S; Yan, Jianguo; Gulick, Virginia; Higuchi, Kana; Baker, Victor R; Glines, Natalie

2016-05-19

It has been proposed that ~3.4 billion years ago an ocean fed by enormous catastrophic floods covered most of the Martian northern lowlands. However, a persistent problem with this hypothesis is the lack of definitive paleoshoreline features. Here, based on geomorphic and thermal image mapping in the circum-Chryse and northwestern Arabia Terra regions of the northern plains, in combination with numerical analyses, we show evidence for two enormous tsunami events possibly triggered by bolide impacts, resulting in craters ~30 km in diameter and occurring perhaps a few million years apart. The tsunamis produced widespread littoral landforms, including run-up water-ice-rich and bouldery lobes, which extended tens to hundreds of kilometers over gently sloping plains and boundary cratered highlands, as well as backwash channels where wave retreat occurred on highland-boundary surfaces. The ice-rich lobes formed in association with the younger tsunami, showing that their emplacement took place following a transition into a colder global climatic regime that occurred after the older tsunami event. We conclude that, on early Mars, tsunamis played a major role in generating and resurfacing coastal terrains.

Tohoku-Oki Earthquake Tsunami Runup and Inundation Data for Sites Around the Island of Hawaiʻi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trusdell, Frank A.; Chadderton, Amy; Hinchliffe, Graham; Hara, Andrew; Patenge, Brent; Weber, Tom

2012-01-01

At 0546 U.t.c. March 11, 2011, a Mw 9.0 ("great") earthquake occurred near the northeast coast of Honshu Island, Japan, generating a large tsunami that devastated the east coast of Japan and impacted many far-flung coastal sites around the Pacific Basin. After the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami alert for the State of Hawaii, followed by a tsunami-warning notice from the local State Civil Defense on March 10, 2011 (Japan is 19 hours ahead of Hawaii). After the waves passed the islands, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) measured inundation (maximum inland distance of flooding), runup (elevation at maximum extent of inundation) and took photographs in coastal areas around the Island of Hawaiʻi. Although the damage in West Hawaiʻi is well documented, HVO's mapping revealed that East Hawaiʻi coastlines were also impacted by the tsunami. The intent of this report is to provide runup and inundation data for sites around the Island of Hawaiʻi.

Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, N.J.; Burton, C.G.; Cutter, S.L.

2010-01-01

Tsunamis generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes pose significant threats to coastal communities in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. Impacts of future tsunamis to individuals and communities will likely vary due to pre-event socioeconomic and demographic differences. In order to assess social vulnerability to Cascadia tsunamis, we adjust a social vulnerability index based on principal component analysis first developed by Cutter et al. (2003) to operate at the census-block level of geography and focus on community-level comparisons along the Oregon coast. The number of residents from blocks in tsunami-prone areas considered to have higher social vulnerability varies considerably among 26 Oregon cities and most are concentrated in four cities and two unincorporated areas. Variations in the number of residents from census blocks considered to have higher social vulnerability in each city do not strongly correlate with the number of residents or city assets in tsunami-prone areas. Methods presented here will help emergency managers to identify community sub-groups that are more susceptible to loss and to develop risk-reduction strategies that are tailored to local conditions. ?? z.

Knowledge base and sensor bus messaging service architecture for critical tsunami warning and decision-support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeur, Z. A.; Wächter, J.; Middleton, S. E.; Zlatev, Z.; Häner, R.; Hammitzsch, M.; Loewe, P.

2012-04-01

The intelligent management of large volumes of environmental monitoring data for early tsunami warning requires the deployment of robust and scalable service oriented infrastructure that is supported by an agile knowledge-base for critical decision-support In the TRIDEC project (TRIDEC 2010-2013), a sensor observation service bus of the TRIDEC system is being developed for the advancement of complex tsunami event processing and management. Further, a dedicated TRIDEC system knowledge-base is being implemented to enable on-demand access to semantically rich OGC SWE compliant hydrodynamic observations and operationally oriented meta-information to multiple subscribers. TRIDEC decision support requires a scalable and agile real-time processing architecture which enables fast response to evolving subscribers requirements as the tsunami crisis develops. This is also achieved with the support of intelligent processing services which specialise in multi-level fusion methods with relevance feedback and deep learning. The TRIDEC knowledge base development work coupled with that of the generic sensor bus platform shall be presented to demonstrate advanced decision-support with situation awareness in context of tsunami early warning and crisis management.

Sheet-gravel evidence for a late Holocene tsunami run-up on beach dunes, Great Barrier Island, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichol, Scott L.; Lian, Olav B.; Carter, Charles H.

2003-01-01

A semi-continuous sheet of granule to cobble-size clasts forms a distinctive deposit on sand dunes located on a coastal barrier in Whangapoua Bay, Great Barrier Island, New Zealand. The gravel sheet extends from the toe of the foredune to 14.3 m above mean sea level and 200 m landward from the beach. Clasts are rounded to sub-rounded and comprise lithologies consistent with local bedrock. Terrestrial sources for the gravel are considered highly unlikely due to the isolation of the dunes from hillslopes and streams. The only source for the clasts is the nearshore to inner shelf of Whangapoua Bay, where gravel sediments have been previously documented. The mechanism for transport of the gravel is unlikely to be storm surge due to the elevation of the deposit; maximum-recorded storm surge on this coast is 0.8 m above mean high water spring tide. Aeolian processes are also discounted due to the size of clasts and the elevation at which they occur. Tsunami is therefore considered the most probable mechanism for gravel transport. Minimum run-up height of the tsunami was 14.3 m, based on maximum elevation of gravel deposits. Optical ages on dune sands beneath and covering the gravel allow age bracketing to 0-4.7 ka. Within this time frame, numerous documented regional seismic and volcanic events could have generated the tsunami, notably submarine volcanism along the southern Kermadec arc to the east-southeast of Great Barrier Island where large magnitude events are documented for the late Holocene. Radiocarbon ages on shell from Maori middens that appear to have been reworked by tsunami run-up constrain the age of this event to post ca. 1400 AD. Regardless of the precise age of this event, the well-preserved nature of the Whangapoua gravel deposit provides for an improved understanding of the high degree of spatial variability in tsunami run-up.

2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Japan's Nuclear Disaster - Implications for Indian Ocean Rim countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadha, R. K.

2011-12-01

The Nuclear disaster in Japan after the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake on March 11, 2011 has elicited global response to have a relook at the safety aspects of the nuclear power plants from all angles including natural hazards like earthquakes and tsunami. Several countries have gone into safety audits of their nuclear programs in view of the experience in Japan. Tectonically speaking, countries located close to subduction zones or in direct line of impact of the subduction zones are the most vulnerable to earthquake or tsunami hazard, as these regions are the locale of great tsunamigenic earthquakes. The Japan disaster has also cautioned to the possibility of great impact to the critical structures along the coasts due to other ocean processes caused by ocean-atmosphere interactions and also due to global warming and sea level rise phenomena in future. This is particular true for island countries. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan will be remembered more because of its nuclear tragedy and tsunami rather than the earthquake itself. The disaster happened as a direct impact of a tsunami generated by the earthquake 130 km off the coast of Sendai in the Honshu region of Japan. The depth of the earthquake was about 25 km below the ocean floor and it occurred on a thrust fault causing a displacement of more than 20 meters. At few places, water is reported to have inundated areas up to 8-10 km inland. The height of the tsunami varied between 10 and 3 meters along the coast. Generally, during an earthquake damage to buildings or other structures occur due to strong shaking which is expressed in the form of ground accelerations 'g'. Although, Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA) consistently exceeded 2g at several places from Sendai down south, structures at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant did not collapse due to the earthquake. In the Indian Ocean Rim countries, Indian, Pakistan and South Africa are the three countries where Nuclear power plants are operational, few of them along the coasts. There are a few countries where nuclear installations are planned and hence, a critical analysis is required to know the realistic hazard due to earthquakes and tsunami in these countries. The December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami generated due to Sumatra earthquake of M9.3 claimed more than 250,000 lives but did not caused a situation like in Japan. We studied the tsunami run-up heights and inundation along the east coast of India. The maximum run-up height of 5.2 meters was observed at Nagapattinam with lateral inundation up to 800 meters and the minimum was at Devanaampatnam with a lateral inundation up to 340 meters. At Kalpakkam Nuclear Power Plant, the tsunami run-up height was 4.1 meters and water entered up to 360 meters inside the campus. Using the observed data we modeled several scenarios for Indian coast line for different earthquakes along the subduction zone of Andaman-Sumatra in the east and Makran in south Pakistan in the western side using N2 Tsunami Model. The results obtained for few critical structures will be presented with an overview of scenarios for other countries.

Numerical simulation of the 2002 Northern Rhodes Slide (Greece) and evaluation of the generated tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaniboni, Filippo; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2013-04-01

Small landslides are very common along the submarine margins, due to steep slopes and continuous material deposition that increment mass instability and supply collapse occurrences, even without earthquake triggering. This kind of events can have relevant consequences when occurring close to the coast, because they are characterized by sudden change of velocity and relevant speed achievement, reflecting into high tsunamigenic potential. This is the case for example of the slide of Rhodes Island (Greece), named Northern Rhodes Slide (NRS), where unusual 3-4 m waves were registered on 24 March 2002, provoking some damage in the coastal stretch of the city of Rhodes (Papadopoulos et al., 2007). The event was not associated with earthquake occurrence, and eyewitnesses supported the hypothesis of a non-seismic source for the tsunami, placed 1 km offshore. Subsequent marine geophysical surveys (Sakellariou et al., 2002) evidenced the presence of several detachment niches at about 300-400 m depth along the northern steep slope, one of which can be considered responsible of the observed tsunami, fitting with the previously mentioned supposition. In this work, that is carried out in the frame of the European funded project NearToWarn, we evaluated the tsunami effects due to the NRS by means of numerical modelling: after having reconstructed the sliding body basing on morphological assumptions (obtaining an esteemed volume of 33 million m3), we simulated the sliding motion through the in-house built code UBO-BLOCK1, adopting a Lagrangian approach and splitting the sliding mass into a "chain" of interacting blocks. This provides the complete dynamics of the landslide, including the shape changes that relevantly influence the tsunami generation. After the application of an intermediate code, accounting for the slide impulse filtering through the water depth, the tsunami propagation in the sea around the island of Rhodes and up to near coasts of Turkey was simulated via the code UBO-TSUFD: this solves numerically the Navier-Stokes equation in the shallow water approximation, adopting a finite difference technique. It was then possible to estimate the most affected coastal stretches and to assess the effects of the NRS generated tsunami, comparing the computed wave heights with the observations. Papadopoulos G.A., Daskalaki E., Fokaefs A. (2007) Tsunamis generated by coastal and submarine landslides in the Mediterranean Sea. In: Lykousis V., Sakellariou D., Locat J. (eds.), Submarine Mass Movements and their Consequences, 415-422, Springer. Sakellariou D., Lykousis V., Rousakis G., Georgiou P. (2002). Slope failure and associated coastal erosion in tectonically active areas: The coastal zone of Rhodes city (Rhodos island) Greece. In: A. Yilmaz (ed.): Oceanography of Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea, 978-985, Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference Oct. 13-16, TUBITAK Publ., Ankara, Turkey.

Modeling the 1958 Lituya Bay mega-tsunami with a PVM-IFCP GPU-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Vida, José M.; Arcas, Diego; de la Asunción, Marc; Castro, Manuel J.; Macías, Jorge; Ortega, Sergio; Sánchez-Linares, Carlos; Titov, Vasily

2013-04-01

In this work we present a numerical study, performed in collaboration with the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (USA), that uses a GPU version of the PVM-IFCP landslide model for the simulation of the 1958 landslide generated tsunami of Lituya Bay. In this model, a layer composed of fluidized granular material is assumed to flow within an upper layer of an inviscid fluid (e. g. water). The model is discretized using a two dimensional PVM-IFCP [Fernández - Castro - Parés. On an Intermediate Field Capturing Riemann Solver Based on a Parabolic Viscosity Matrix for the Two-Layer Shallow Water System, J. Sci. Comput., 48 (2011):117-140] finite volume scheme implemented on GPU cards for increasing the speed-up. This model has been previously validated by using the two-dimensional physical laboratory experiments data from H. Fritz [Lituya Bay Landslide Impact Generated Mega-Tsunami 50th Anniversary. Pure Appl. Geophys., 166 (2009) pp. 153-175]. In the present work, the first step was to reconstruct the topobathymetry of the Lituya Bay before this event ocurred, this is based on USGS geological surveys data. Then, a sensitivity analysis of some model parameters has been performed in order to determine the parameters that better fit to reality, when model results are compared against available event data, as run-up areas. In this presentation, the reconstruction of the pre-tsunami scenario will be shown, a detailed simulation of the tsunami presented and several comparisons with real data (runup, wave height, etc.) shown.

1854-2014: 160 years of far-field tsunami detection and warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okal, Emile

2014-05-01

The first scientific study of a tsunami as generated by a distant earthquake can be traced to Bache [1856] who correctly identified waves from the 1854 Nankai earthquake on California tidal gauges. We will review developments in the study of the relationship between earthquake source and far field tsunami, with their logical application to distant warning. Among the principal milestones, we discuss Hochstetter's [1869] work on the 1868 Arica tsunami, Jaggar's real-time, but ignored, warning of the 1923 Kamchatka tsunami in Hawaii, his much greater success with the 1933 Showa Sanriku event, the catastrophic 1946 Aleutian event, which led to the implementation of PTWC, the 1960 events in Hilo, and the 1964 Alaska tsunami, which led to the development of the A[now N]TWC. From the scientific standpoint, we will review the evolution of our attempts to measure the seismic source (in practice its seismic moment), always faster, and at always lower frequencies, culminating in the W-phase inversion, heralded by Kanamori and co-workers in the wake of the Sumatra disaster. Specific problems arise from events violating scaling laws, such as the so-called "tsunami earthquakes", and we will review methodologies to recognize them in real time, such as energy-to-moment ratios. Finally, we will discuss briefly modern technologies aimed at directly detecting the tsunami independently of the seismic source.

Japanese Experience with Long-term Recovery from the 2011 Tohoku　Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, H.

2015-12-01

On March 11, 2011, a huge tsunami disaster hit Pacific coast of Tohoku region due to a magnitude of 9.0 earthquake, and killed almost 20,000 people. It was also the beginning of long-term recovery to prepare for next tsunami attack in the future. In this presentation, I would like to review the recovery process from the following five elements: quantification of tsunami hazards, public education, evacuation model, land-use planning, and real-time tsunami warning. It should be noted that there are lessons from the 2011 event at two different levels: national level and prefecture levels. In relation to the quantification of tsunami hazard and real-time tsunami warning, it followed a big change in tsunami policy at national level such as setting up two levels of tsunami scenarios for tsunami preparedness and mitigation: Level 1 tsunami (L1) and Level 2 tsunami (L2). L1 is the tsunami risk with 50 year return period, and L2 is the one with 1,000 year return period. As for public education, evacuation model, and land-use planning, There existed a big difference for what happened in the northern half of the coast and the southern half. Northern half of the coast belongs to Iwate Prefecture whose geography is rias coast. People in the Rias coast of Iwate Prefecture has been hit many times by tsunami on the average of about 50 years. With these many experiences, they succeeded in reducing the number of mortality down to 4,000 in comparison with 20,000 at the 1886 tsunami disaster. Most of the Southern half belongs to Miyagi Prefecture whose geography is coastal plain. People in the coastal plain in Miyagi Prefecture has little experience with tsunami disaster and end up with 14,000 deaths due to tsunami attack. The differences in the past tsunami experiences in these two prefectures resulted in big differences in public education, evacuation model, and land-use planning.

Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

2008-06-01

The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks GIS coupled with modelling thus appears to be a very useful tool that can constitute the skeleton of a coastal zone management system. Decision makers will be able to make informed choices with regards to hazards during reconstruction and urban planning projects.

Combining historical eyewitness accounts on tsunami-induced waves and numerical simulations for getting insights in uncertainty of source parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohmer, Jeremy; Rousseau, Marie; Lemoine, Anne; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Lambert, Jerome; benki, Aalae

2017-04-01

Recent tsunami events including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami have caused many casualties and damages to structures. Advances in numerical simulation of tsunami-induced wave processes have tremendously improved forecast, hazard and risk assessment and design of early warning for tsunamis. Among the major challenges, several studies have underlined uncertainties in earthquake slip distributions and rupture processes as major contributor on tsunami wave height and inundation extent. Constraining these uncertainties can be performed by taking advantage of observations either on tsunami waves (using network of water level gauge) or on inundation characteristics (using field evidence and eyewitness accounts). Despite these successful applications, combining tsunami observations and simulations still faces several limitations when the problem is addressed for past tsunamis events like 1755 Lisbon. 1) While recent inversion studies can benefit from current modern networks (e.g., tide gauges, sea bottom pressure gauges, GPS-mounted buoys), the number of tide gauges can be very scarce and testimonies on tsunami observations can be limited, incomplete and imprecise for past tsunamis events. These observations often restrict to eyewitness accounts on wave heights (e.g., maximum reached wave height at the coast) instead of the full observed waveforms; 2) Tsunami phenomena involve a large span of spatial scales (from ocean basin scales to local coastal wave interactions), which can make the modelling very demanding: the computation time cost of tsunami simulation can be very prohibitive; often reaching several hours. This often limits the number of allowable long-running simulations for performing the inversion, especially when the problem is addressed from a Bayesian inference perspective. The objective of the present study is to overcome both afore-described difficulties in the view to combine historical observations on past tsunami-induced waves and numerical simulations. In order to learn the uncertainty information on source parameters, we treat the problem within the Bayesian setting, which enables to incorporate in a flexible manner the different uncertainty sources. We propose to rely on an emerging technique called Approximate Bayesian Computation ABC, which has been developed to estimate the posterior distribution in modelling scenarios where the likelihood function is either unknown or cannot be explicitly defined. To overcome the computational issue, we combine ABC with statistical emulators (aka meta-model). We apply the proposed approach on the case study of Ligurian (North West of Italy) tsunami (1887) and discuss the results with a special attention paid to the impact of the observational error.

Tracing Acoustic-Gravity Waves from the Ocean into the Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zabotin, N. A.; Godin, O. A.; Bullett, T. W.; Negrea, C.

2013-12-01

Ionospheric manifestations of tsunamis provide dramatic evidence of a connection between wave processes in the ocean and in the atmosphere. But tsunamis are only a transient feature of a more general phenomenon, infragravity waves (IGWs). IGWs are permanently present surface gravity waves in the ocean with periods longer than the longest periods (~30 s) of wind-generated waves. IGWs propagate transoceanic distances and, because of their long wavelengths (from ~1 km to hundreds of km), provide a mechanism for coupling wave processes in the ocean, atmosphere, and the solid Earth. The notion that tsunamis may generate waves in the upper atmosphere has existed for a long time but no quantitative coupling theory for the background waves has been proposed. We provide a strict physical justification for the influence of the background IGWs on the upper atmosphere. Taking into account both fluid compressibility and the gravity in a coupled atmosphere-ocean system, we show that there exist two distinct regimes of IGW penetration into the atmosphere. At higher frequencies, one has evanescent waves in the atmosphere propagating horizontally along the ocean surface. At lower frequencies, IGWs continuously radiate their energy into the upper atmosphere in the form of acoustic gravity waves (AGWs). The transition frequency depends on the ocean depth; it varies slowly near 3 mHz for typical depth values and drops to zero sharply only for extremely large depths. Using semi-empirical model of the IGW power spectrum, we derive an estimate of the flux of the mechanical energy and mechanical momentum from the deep ocean into the atmosphere due to background IGWs and predict specific forcing on the atmosphere in coastal regions. We compare spectra of wave processes in the ionosphere measured using Dynasonde technique over Wallops Island, VA and San Juan, PR and interpret the differences in terms of the oceanic effects. We conclude that AGWs of oceanic origin may have an observable impact on the upper atmosphere and describe techniques for experimental verification of this finding.

Heavy minerals in the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami deposits—insights into sediment sources and hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagodziński, Robert; Sternal, Beata; Szczuciński, Witold; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Sugawara, Daisuke

2012-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami left sand and mud deposits more than 4 km inland on the coastal plain of Sendai, Japan. The tsunami deposits, pre-tsunami soils and beach sediments were analysed for grain size, and heavy mineral content and assemblages to test the applicability of heavy mineral analyses in the identification of tsunami deposits and interpretation of associated sedimentation processes. Heavy minerals comprised on average 35% of the tsunami deposit in the 0.125-0.25 mm grain size fraction. The most common were orthopyroxenes, clinopyroxenes, amphiboles, limonites and opaque minerals. Heavy mineral concentrations and assemblages were similar in the tsunami deposits, beach and pre-tsunami soils and sediments and thus tsunami deposits could not simply be identified based on their heavy minerals. Sediment provenance analysis revealed that tsunami deposits left within 1.5 km of the shoreline were mostly eroded from the beach, dune and local soils, while deposits farther inland (> 1.5 km) were mostly derived from local soil erosion. No evidence was found for a significant contribution of offshore sediments. Detailed analyses revealed that the lowermost portion of tsunami deposits was mostly of local origin, while the sediment source of the upper portion was variable. A comparison with a previous study of heavy minerals in 2004 IOT deposits confirms that heavy minerals in tsunami deposits are mostly source-dependent and may represent a useful supplementary tool in studies of tsunami deposits. However, the interpretation must always be placed in the local geological context and corroborated with other "tsunami proxies".

Preliminary Report Summarizes Tsunami Impacts and Lessons Learned from the September 7, 2017, M8.1 Tehuantepec Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Dengler, L. A.; Miller, K.; LaDuke, Y.

2017-12-01

The preliminary tsunami impacts from the September 7, 2017, M8.1 Tehuantepec Earthquake have been summarized in the following report: https://www.eeri.org/wp-content/uploads/EERI-Recon-Rpt-090717-Mexico-tsunami_fn.pdf. Although the tsunami impacts were not as significant as those from the earthquake itself (98 fatalities and 41,000 homes damaged), the following are highlights and lessons learned: The Tehuantepec earthquake was one of the largest down-slab normal faulting events ever recorded. This situation complicated the tsunami forecast since forecast methods and pre-event modeling are primarily associated with megathrust earthquakes where the most significant tsunamis are generated. Adding non-megathrust source modeling to the tsunami forecast databases of conventional warning systems should be considered. Offshore seismic and tsunami hazard analyses using past events should incorporate the potential for large earthquakes occurring along sources other than the megathrust boundary. From an engineering perspective, initial reports indicate there was only minor tsunami damage along the Mexico coast. There was damage to Marina Chiapas where floating docks overtopped their piles. Increasing pile heights could reduce the potential for damage to floating docks. Tsunami warning notifications did not get to the public in time to assist with evacuation. Streamlining the messaging in Mexico from the warning system directly to the public should be considered. And, for local events, preparedness efforts should place emphasis on responding to feeling the earthquake and not waiting to be notified. Although the U.S. tsunami warning centers were timely with their international and domestic messaging, there were some issues with how those messages were presented and interpreted. The use of a "Tsunami Threat" banner on the new main warning center website created confusion with emergency managers in the U.S. where no tsunami threat was expected to exist. Also, some U.S. states and territories in the Pacific were listed in both domestic and international messages, which caused confusion for American Samoa where these messages contained somewhat conflicting information. These issues are being addressed by the warning centers and the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Quantification of uncertainties of the tsunami risk in Cascadia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillas, S.; Sarri, A.; Day, S. J.; Liu, X.; Dias, F.

2013-12-01

We first show new realistic simulations of earthquake-generated tsunamis in Cascadia (Western Canada and USA) using VOLNA. VOLNA is a solver of nonlinear shallow water equations on unstructured meshes that is accelerated on the new GPU system Emerald. Primary outputs from these runs are tsunami inundation maps, accompanied by site-specific wave trains and flow velocity histories. The variations in inputs (here seabed deformations due to earthquakes) are time-varying shapes difficult to sample, and they require an integrated statistical and geophysical analysis. Furthermore, the uncertainties in the bathymetry require extensive investigation and optimization of the resolutions at the source and impact. Thus we need to run VOLNA for well chosen combinations of the inputs and the bathymetry to reflect the various sources of uncertainties, and we interpolate in between using a so-called statistical emulator that keeps track of the additional uncertainties due to the interpolation itself. We present novel adaptive sequential designs that enable such choices of the combinations for our Gaussian Process (GP) based emulator in order to maximize the information from the limited number of runs of VOLNA that can be computed. GPs show strength in the approximation of the response surface but suffer from large computer costs associated with the fitting. Hence, a careful selection of the inputs is necessary to optimize the trade-off fit versus computations. Finally, we also propose to assess the frequencies and intensities of the earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone that have been demonstrated by geological palaeoseismic, palaeogeodetic and tsunami deposit studies in Cascadia. As a result, the hazard assessment aims to reflect the multiple non-linearities and uncertainties for the tsunami risk in Cascadia.

Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

2017-01-01

Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

Earthquake and Tsunami planning, outreach and awareness in Humboldt County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozaki, V.; Nicolini, T.; Larkin, D.; Dengler, L.

2008-12-01

Humboldt County has the longest coastline in California and is one of the most seismically active areas of the state. It is at risk from earthquakes located on and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), other regional fault systems, and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology published the first earthquake scenario to include both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of representatives from government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector from the three northern coastal California counties, was formed in 1996 to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation. The RCTWG and its member agencies have sponsored a variety of projects including education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning, and has sponsored an Earthquake - Tsunami Education Room at the Humboldt County fair for the past eleven years. Three editions of Living on Shaky Ground an earthquake-tsunami preparedness magazine for California's North Coast, have been published since 1993 and a fourth is due to be published in fall 2008. In 2007, Humboldt County was the first region in the country to participate in a tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD and the first area in California to conduct a full-scale tsunami evacuation drill. The County has conducted numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises using county-wide tsunami response plan. Two Humboldt County communities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service in 2007. Over 300 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in Humboldt County since March 2008. Six assessment surveys from 1993 to 2006 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the county and additional surveys have tracked public awareness and tourist concerns about tsunami hazard signs. Over the thirteen year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 73 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 42 percent.

SAFRR tsunami scenario: Impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries: Chapter G in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brosnan, Deborah; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick; Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile

2014-01-01

We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems and endangered species (Section 2). A section on commercial fisheries and the fishing fleet (Section 3) documents the plausible effects on California’s commercial fishery resources, fishing fleets, and communities. Sections 2 and 3 each include practical preparedness options for communities and suggestions on information needs or research.Our evaluation indicates that many low-lying coastal habitats, including beaches, marshes and sloughs, rivers and waterways connected to the sea, as well as nearshore submarine habitats will be damaged by the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Beach erosion and complex or high volumes of tsunami-generated debris would pose major challenges for ecological communities. Several endangered species and protected areas are at risk. Commercial fisheries and fishing fleets will be affected directly by the tsunami and indirectly by dependencies on infrastructure that is damaged. There is evidence that in some areas intact ecosystems, notably sand dunes, will act as natural defenses against the tsunami waves. However, ecosystems do not provide blanket protection against tsunami surge. The consequences of ecological and natural resource damage are estimated in the millions of dollars. These costs are driven partly by the loss of ecosystem services, as well as cumulative and follow-on impacts where, for example, increased erosion during the tsunami can in turn lead to subsequent damage and loss to coastal properties. Recovery of ecosystems, natural resources and fisheries is likely to be lengthy and expensive. Preparedness is key to enhancing resilience to ecological impacts.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

MAIZEGDB.ORG, the Maize Genetics Cooperation and the 2500 MB B73 Genome-Generated Tsunami

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Advances in sequencing technology have made it possible to sequence the 2500 MB B73 maize genome, both cheaply and in a relatively short time. Nearly simultaneously, other sequencing-based data are on the leading edge of a data tsunami: sequenced differences (currently >300,000 SNP for >1000 inbre...

A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The first system demonstrator has been designed and implemented to support plausible scenarios demonstrating the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC). The feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes in a hypothetical natural crisis situation caused by a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Developments of the system are based to the largest extent on free and open source software (FOSS) components and industry standards. Emphasis has been and will be made on leveraging open source technologies that support mature system architecture models wherever appropriate. All open source software produced is foreseen to be published on a publicly available software repository thus allowing others to reuse results achieved and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. This live demonstration is linked with the talk "TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management Demonstrator for Tsunamis" (EGU2012-7275) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.7/ESSI1.7).

Role of sediment transport model to improve the tsunami numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugawara, D.; Yamashita, K.; Takahashi, T.; Imamura, F.

2015-12-01

Are we overlooking an important factor for improved numerical prediction of tsunamis in shallow sea to onshore? In this presentation, several case studies on numerical modeling of tsunami-induced sediment transport are reviewed, and the role of sediment transport models for tsunami inundation simulation is discussed. Large-scale sediment transport and resulting geomorphological change occurred in the coastal areas of Tohoku, Japan, due to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami. Datasets obtained after the tsunami, including geomorphological and sedimentological data as well as hydrodynamic records, allows us to validate the numerical model in detail. The numerical modeling of the sediment transport by the 2011 tsunami depicted the severest erosion of sandy beach, as well as characteristic spatial patterns of erosion and deposition on the seafloor, which have taken place in Hirota Bay, Sanriku Coast. Quantitative comparisons of observation and simulation of the geomorphological changes in Sanriku Coast and Sendai Bay showed that the numerical model can predict the volumes of erosion and deposition with a right order. In addition, comparison of the simulation with aerial video footages demonstrated the numerical model is capable of tracking the overall processes of tsunami sediment transport. Although tsunami-induced sediment erosion and deposition sometimes cause significant geomorphological change, and may enhance tsunami hydrodynamic impact to the coastal zones, most tsunami simulations do not include sediment transport modeling. A coupled modeling of tsunami hydrodynamics and sediment transport draws a different picture of tsunami hazard, comparing with simple hydrodynamic modeling of tsunami inundation. Since tsunami-induced erosion, deposition and geomorphological change sometimes extend more than several kilometers across the coastline, two-dimensional horizontal model are typically used for the computation of tsunami hydrodynamics and sediment transport. Limitations of the conventional model and future challenges are discussed regarding further improvement of numerical modeling of tsunami and sediment transport. Improved numerical modeling may provide useful information for assessing sediment-related damages and planning post-disaster recovery.

Tsunamis hazard assessment and monitoring for the Back Sea area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partheniu, Raluca; Ionescu, Constantin; Constantin, Angela; Moldovan, Iren; Diaconescu, Mihail; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Radulian, Mircea; Toader, Victorin

2016-04-01

NIEP has improved lately its researches regarding tsunamis in the Black Sea. As part of the routine earthquake and tsunami monitoring activity, the first tsunami early-warning system in the Black Sea has been implemented in 2013 and is active during these last years. In order to monitor the seismic activity of the Black Sea, NIEP is using a total number of 114 real time stations and 2 seismic arrays, 18 of the stations being located in Dobrogea area, area situated in the vicinity of the Romanian Black Sea shore line. Moreover, there is a data exchange with the Black Sea surrounding countries involving the acquisition of real-time data for 17 stations from Bulgaria, Turkey, Georgia and Ukraine. This improves the capability of the Romanian Seismic Network to monitor and more accurately locate the earthquakes occurred in the Black Sea area. For tsunamis monitoring and warning, a number of 6 sea level monitoring stations, 1 infrasound barometer, 3 offshore marine buoys and 7 GPS/GNSS stations are installed in different locations along and near the Romanian shore line. In the framework of ASTARTE project, few objectives regarding the seismic hazard and tsunami waves height assessment for the Black Sea were accomplished. The seismic hazard estimation was based on statistical studies of the seismic sources and their characteristics, compiled using different seismic catalogues. Two probabilistic methods were used for the evaluation of the seismic hazard, the Cornell method, based on the Gutenberg Richter distribution parameters, and Gumbel method, based on extremes statistic. The results show maximum values of possible magnitudes and their recurrence periods, for each seismic source. Using the Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) software, a set of tsunami modelling scenarios have been generated for Shabla area, the seismic source that could mostly affect the Romanian shore. These simulations are structured in a database, in order to set maximum possible tsunami waves that could be generated and to establish minimum magnitude values that could trigger tsunamis in this area. Some particularities of Shabla source are: past observed magnitudes > 7 and a recurrence period of 175 years. Some other important objectives of NIEP are to continue the monitoring of the seismic activity of the Black Sea, to improve the data base of the tsunami simulations for this area, near real time fault plane solution estimations used for the warning system, and to add new seismic, GPS/GNSS and sea level monitoring equipment to the existing network. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by the FP7 FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3 "Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction For Tsunamis in Europe" (ASTARTE) Project 603839/2013 and PNII, Capacity Module III ASTARTE RO Project 268/2014. This work was partially supported by the "Global Tsunami Informal Monitoring Service - 2" (GTIMS2) Project, JRC/IPR/2015/G.2/2006/NC 260286, Ref. Ares (2015)1440256 - 01.04.2015.

Disturbance of Shallow Marine Soft-Bottom Environments and Megabenthos Assemblages by a Huge Tsunami Induced by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

PubMed Central

Seike, Koji; Shirai, Kotaro; Kogure, Yukihisa

2013-01-01

Huge tsunami waves associated with megathrust earthquakes have a severe impact on shallow marine ecosystems. We investigated the impact of a tsunami generated by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake on the seafloor and large benthic animals in muddy and sandy ria coasts (Otsuchi and Funakoshi bays) in northeastern Japan. We conducted underwater field surveys using scuba equipment in water depths of <20 m before the tsunami (September 2010) and after the tsunami (September 2011 and September 2012). During the study period, episodic changes in topography and grain-size composition occurred on the seafloor of the study area. Megabenthos sampling revealed a distinct pattern of distribution succession for each benthic species. For example, the protobranch bivalve Yoldia notabilis (Bivalvia: Nuculanidae) and the heterodont bivalve Felaniella usta (Bivalvia: Ungulinidae) disappeared after the tsunami event, whereas the distribution of the venus clam Gomphina melanaegis (Bivalvia: Veneridae) remained unchanged. In addition, the patterns of succession for a single species, such as the giant button top shell Umbonium costatum (Gastropoda: Trochidae) and the heart urchin Echinocardium cordatum (Echinoidea: Loveniidae), varied between the two bays studied. Our data also show that reestablishment of some benthic animal populations began within 18 months of the tsunami disturbance. PMID:23762365

Disturbance of shallow marine soft-bottom environments and megabenthos assemblages by a huge tsunami induced by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

PubMed

Seike, Koji; Shirai, Kotaro; Kogure, Yukihisa

2013-01-01

Huge tsunami waves associated with megathrust earthquakes have a severe impact on shallow marine ecosystems. We investigated the impact of a tsunami generated by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake on the seafloor and large benthic animals in muddy and sandy ria coasts (Otsuchi and Funakoshi bays) in northeastern Japan. We conducted underwater field surveys using scuba equipment in water depths of <20 m before the tsunami (September 2010) and after the tsunami (September 2011 and September 2012). During the study period, episodic changes in topography and grain-size composition occurred on the seafloor of the study area. Megabenthos sampling revealed a distinct pattern of distribution succession for each benthic species. For example, the protobranch bivalve Yoldia notabilis (Bivalvia: Nuculanidae) and the heterodont bivalve Felaniella usta (Bivalvia: Ungulinidae) disappeared after the tsunami event, whereas the distribution of the venus clam Gomphina melanaegis (Bivalvia: Veneridae) remained unchanged. In addition, the patterns of succession for a single species, such as the giant button top shell Umbonium costatum (Gastropoda: Trochidae) and the heart urchin Echinocardium cordatum (Echinoidea: Loveniidae), varied between the two bays studied. Our data also show that reestablishment of some benthic animal populations began within 18 months of the tsunami disturbance.

Modelling the tsunami threat to Sydney Harbour, Australia, with comparisons to historical events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, O.; Power, H.

2016-12-01

Sydney Harbour is an iconic location with a dense population and low-lying development. On the east coast of Australia, facing the Pacific Ocean it is exposed to several tsunamigenic trenches. To date, this is the most detailed assessment of the potential for earthquake-generated tsunami impact on Sydney Harbour. The tsunami wave trains modelled include tsunami modelled from earthquakes of magnitude 7.5, 8.0, 8.5 and 9.0 MW from the Puysegur and New Hebrides trenches. Historical events from Chile in 1960 and Japan in 2011 are also modelled for comparison. Using the hydrodynamic model ANUGA, results show that the events modelled have the potential to cause high current speeds, hazardous waves and rapid changes in water level. These effects are most dramatic at pinch points such as Spit Bridge and Anzac Bridge, particularly with regard to current speeds. Large waves are shown to be a particular threat at the mouth of the harbour, where the bathymetry causes the tsunami wave train to shoal. Inundation is less of a hazard for the tsunami events modlled, although some inundation is evident at several low-lying embayments in the south of the harbour. These results will provide an evidence base for tsunami threat emergency management.

Marshall Islands Fringing Reef and Atoll Lagoon Observations of the Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Murray; Becker, Janet M.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Song, Y. Tony

2014-12-01

The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011 generated a tsunami which caused significant impacts throughout the Pacific Ocean. A description of the tsunami within the lagoons and on the surrounding fringing reefs of two mid-ocean atoll islands is presented using bottom pressure observations from the Majuro and Kwajalein atolls in the Marshall Islands, supplemented by tide gauge data in the lagoons and by numerical model simulations in the deep ocean. Although the initial wave arrival was not captured by the pressure sensors, subsequent oscillations on the reef face resemble the deep ocean tsunami signal simulated by two numerical models, suggesting that the tsunami amplitudes over the atoll outer reefs are similar to that in deep water. In contrast, tsunami oscillations in the lagoon are more energetic and long lasting than observed on the reefs or modelled in the deep ocean. The tsunami energy in the Majuro lagoon exhibits persistent peaks in the 30 and 60 min period bands that suggest the excitation of closed and open basin normal modes, while energy in the Kwajalein lagoon spans a broader range of frequencies with weaker, multiple peaks than observed at Majuro, which may be associated with the tsunami behavior within the more irregular geometry of the Kwajalein lagoon. The propagation of the tsunami across the reef flats is shown to be tidally dependent, with amplitudes increasing/decreasing shoreward at high/low tide. The impact of the tsunami on the Marshall Islands was reduced due to the coincidence of peak wave amplitudes with low tide; however, the observed wave amplitudes, particularly in the atoll lagoon, would have led to inundation at different tidal phases.

Implementation of a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaBrecque, John

2016-04-01

The Global Geodetic Observing System has issued a Call for Participation to research scientists, geodetic research groups and national agencies in support of the implementation of the IUGG recommendation for a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems. The call seeks to establish a working group to be a catalyst and motivating force for the definition of requirements, identification of resources, and for the encouragement of international cooperation in the establishment, advancement, and utilization of GNSS for Tsunami Early Warning. During the past fifteen years the populations of the Indo-Pacific region experienced a series of mega-thrust earthquakes followed by devastating tsunamis that claimed nearly 300,000 lives. The future resiliency of the region will depend upon improvements to infrastructure and emergency response that will require very significant investments from the Indo-Pacific economies. The estimation of earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation are critical to rapid tsunami warning. Geodetic research groups have demonstrated the use of GNSS data to estimate earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation sufficient for the accurate and timely prediction of tsunamis generated by mega-thrust earthquakes. GNSS data have also been used to measure the formation and propagation of tsunamis via ionospheric disturbances acoustically coupled to the propagating surface waves; thereby providing a new technique to track tsunami propagation across ocean basins, opening the way for improving tsunami propagation models, and providing accurate warning to communities in the far field. These two new advancements can deliver timely and accurate tsunami warnings to coastal communities in the near and far field of mega-thrust earthquakes. This presentation will present the justification for and the details of the GGOS Call for Participation.

How the Slip Distribution Complexities Control the Tsunami Scenarios: a Sensitivity Analysis for the Hellenic and Calabrian Subduction Interfaces.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scala, A.; Murphy, S.; Herrero, A.; Maesano, F. E.; Lorito, S.; Romano, F.; Tiberti, M. M.; Tonini, R.; Volpe, M.; Basili, R.

2017-12-01

Recent giant tsunamigenic earthquakes (Sumatra 2004, Chile 2010, Tohoku 2011) have confirmed that the complexity of seismic slip distributions may play a fundamental role in the generation and the amplitude of the tsunami waves. In particular, big patches of large slip on the shallower part of the subduction zones, as well as slow rupture propagation within low rigidity areas, can contribute to increase the tsunamigenic potential thus generating devastating coastal inundation. In the Mediterranean Sea, some subduction structures can be identified, such as the Hellenic Arc at the boundary between the African and Aegean plates, and the Calabrian Arc between the European and African plates. We have modelled these areas using discretized high-resolution 3D fault geometries with realistic variability of the strike and dip angles. In particular, the latter geometries have been constrained from the analysis of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles and the seismicity of the areas. To study the influence of different rigidity conditions, we compare the tsunami scenarios deriving from homogeneous slip to those obtained from depth-dependent slip distributions at different magnitudes. These depth-dependent slip distributions are obtained by imposing a variability with depth of both shear modulus and seismic rate, and the conservation of the dislocation over the whole subduction zone. Furthermore, we generate along the Hellenic and Calabrian arc subduction interfaces an ensemble of stochastic slip distributions using a composite source model technique. To mimic either single or multiple asperity source models, the distribution of sub-events whose sum produces the stochastic slip, are distributed based on a PDF, defined as the combination of either one or more Gaussian functions. Tsunami scenarios are then generated from this ensemble in order to address how the position of the main patch of slip can affect the tsunami amplitude along the coast.

Odessa Tsunami of 27 June 2014: Observations and Numerical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šepić, Jadranka; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Sytov, Victor N.

2018-04-01

On 27 June, a 1-2-m high wave struck the beaches of Odessa, the third largest Ukrainian city, and the neighbouring port-town Illichevsk (northwestern Black Sea). Throughout the day, prominent seiche oscillations were observed in several other ports of the Black Sea. Tsunamigenic synoptic conditions were found over the Black Sea, stretching from Romania in the west to the Crimean Peninsula in the east. Intense air pressure disturbances and convective thunderstorm clouds were associated with these conditions; right at the time of the event, a 1.5-hPa air pressure jump was recorded at Odessa and a few hours earlier in Romania. We have utilized a barotropic ocean numerical model to test two hypotheses: (1) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating directly over Odessa ("Experiment 1"); (2) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating offshore, approximately 200 km to the south of Odessa, and along the shelf break ("Experiment 2"). Both experiments decisively confirm the meteorological origin of the tsunami-like waves on the coast of Odessa and imply that intensified long ocean waves in this region were generated via the Proudman resonance mechanism while propagating over the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The "Odessa tsunami" of 27 June 2014 was identified as a "beach meteotsunami", similar to events regularly observed on the beaches of Florida, USA, but different from the "harbour meteotsunamis", which occurred 1-3 days earlier in Ciutadella (Baleares, Spain), Mazara del Vallo (Sicily, Italy) and Vela Luka (Croatia) in the Mediterranean Sea, despite that they were associated with the same atmospheric system moving over the Mediterranean/Black Sea region on 23-27 June 2014.

Chilean Tsunami Rocks the Ross Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromirski, P. D.; Gerstoft, P.; Chen, Z.; Stephen, R. A.; Diez, A.; Arcas, D.; Wiens, D.; Aster, R. C.; Nyblade, A.

2016-12-01

The response of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) to the September 16, 2015 9.3 Mb Chilean earthquake tsunami (> 75 s period) and infragravity (IG) waves (50 - 300 s period) were recorded by a broadband seismic array deployed on the RIS from November 2014 to November 2015. The array included two linear transects, one approximately orthogonal to the shelf front extending 430 km southward toward the grounding zone, and an east-west transect spanning the RIS roughly parallel to the front about 100 km south of the ice edge (https://scripps.ucsd.edu/centers/iceshelfvibes/). Signals generated by both the tsunami and IG waves were recorded at all stations on floating ice, with little ocean wave-induced energy reaching stations on grounded ice. Cross-correlation and dispersion curve analyses indicate that tsunami and IG wave-generated signals propagate across the RIS at gravity wave speeds (about 70 m/s), consistent with coupled water-ice flexural-gravity waves propagating through the ice shelf from the north. Gravity wave excitation at periods > 100 s is continuously observed during the austral winter, providing mechanical excitation of the RIS throughout the year. Horizontal displacements are typically about 3 times larger than vertical displacements, producing extensional motions that could facilitate expansion of existing fractures. The vertical and horizontal spectra in the IG band attenuate exponentially with distance from the front. Tsunami model data are used to assess variability of excitation of the RIS by long period gravity waves. Substantial variability across the RIS roughly parallel to the front is observed, likely resulting from a combination of gravity wave amplitude variability along the front, signal attenuation, incident angle of the wave forcing at the front that depends on wave generation location as well as bathymetry under and north of the shelf, and water layer and ice shelf thickness and properties.

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Risi, Raffaele; Goda, Katsuichiro

2017-08-01

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decision-making regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

Numerical tool for tsunami risk assessment in the southern coast of Dominican Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias Sanchez, J.; Llorente Isidro, M.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Sr.; Castro, M. J.

2016-12-01

The southern coast of Dominican Republic is a very populated region, with several important cities including Santo Domingo, its capital. Important activities are rooted in the southern coast including tourism, industry, commercial ports, and, energy facilities, among others. According to historical reports, it has been impacted by big earthquakes accompanied by tsunamis as in Azua in 1751 and recently Pedernales in 2010, but their sources are not clearly identified. The aim of the present work is to develop a numerical tool to simulate the impact in the southern coast of the Dominican Republic of tsunamis generated in the Caribbean Sea. This tool, based on the Tsunami-HySEA model from EDANYA group (University of Malaga, Spain), could be used in the framework of a Tsunami Early Warning Systems due the very short computing times when only propagation is computed or it could be used to assess inundation impact, computing inundation with a initial 5 meter resolution. Numerical results corresponding to three theoretical sources are used to test the numerical tool.

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2011-01-01

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

Database of tsunami scenario simulations for Western Iberia: a tool for the TRIDEC Project Decision Support System for tsunami early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

2013-04-01

TRIDEC is a EU-FP7 Project whose main goal is, in general terms, to develop suitable strategies for the management of crises possibly arising in the Earth management field. The general paradigms adopted by TRIDEC to develop those strategies include intelligent information management, the capability of managing dynamically increasing volumes and dimensionality of information in complex events, and collaborative decision making in systems that are typically very loosely coupled. The two areas where TRIDEC applies and tests its strategies are tsunami early warning and industrial subsurface development. In the field of tsunami early warning, TRIDEC aims at developing a Decision Support System (DSS) that integrates 1) a set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors devoted to the detection and characterisation of possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitoring the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) large-volume databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios, 3) a proper overall system architecture. Two test areas are dealt with in TRIDEC: the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean. In this study, we focus on the western Iberian margin with special emphasis on the Portuguese coasts. The strategy adopted in TRIDEC plans to populate two different databases, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB), both of which deal only with earthquake-generated tsunamis. In the VSDB we simulate numerically few large-magnitude events generated by the major known tectonic structures in the study area. Heterogeneous slip distributions on the earthquake faults are introduced to simulate events as "realistically" as possible. The members of the VSDB represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC platform must be able to recognise and match during the early crisis management phase. On the other hand, the MSDB contains a very large number (order of thousands) of tsunami simulations performed starting from many different simple earthquake sources of different magnitudes and located in the "vicinity" of the virtual scenario earthquake. In the DSS perspective, the members of the MSDB have to be suitably combined based on the information coming from the sensor networks, and the results are used during the crisis evolution phase to forecast the degree of exposition of different coastal areas. We provide examples from both databases whose members are computed by means of the in-house software called UBO-TSUFD, implementing the non-linear shallow-water equations and solving them over a set of nested grids that guarantee a suitable spatial resolution (few tens of meters) in specific, suitably chosen, coastal areas.

Physical Observations of the Tsunami during the September 8th 2017 Tehuantepec, Mexico Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Corona, N.; Ruiz-Angulo, A.; Melgar, D.; Zavala-Hidalgo, J.

2017-12-01

The September 8th 2017, Mw8.2 earthquake offshore Chiapas, Mexico, is the largest earthquake recorded history in Chiapas since 1902. It caused damage in the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco; it had more than 100 fatalities, over 1.5 million people were affected, and 41,000 homes were damaged in the state of Chiapas alone. This earthquake, a deep intraplate event on a normal fault on the oceanic subducting plate, generated a tsunami recorded at several tide gauge stations in Mexico and on the Pacific Ocean. Here we report the physical effects of the tsunami on the Chiapas coast and analyze the societal implications of this tsunami on the basis of our field observations. Tide gauge data indicate 11.3 and 8.2 cm of coastal subsidence at Salina Cruz and Puerto Chiapas stations. The associated tsunami waves were recorded first at Salina Cruz tide gauge station at 5:13 (GMT). We covered ground observations along 41 km of the coast of Chiapas, encompassing the sites with the highest projected wave heights based on the preliminary tsunami model (maximum tsunami amplitudes between -94.5 and -93.0 W). Runup and inundation distances were measured with an RTK GPS and using a Sokkia B40 level along 8 sites. We corrected runup data with estimated astronomical tide levels at the time of the tsunami. The tsunami occurred at low tide. The maximum runup was 3 m at Boca del Cielo, and maximum inundation distance was 190 m in Puerto Arista, corresponding to the coast directly opposite the epicenter and in the central sector of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In general, our field data agree with the predicted results from the preliminary tsunami model. Tsunami scour and erosion was evident on the Chiapas coast. Tsunami deposits, mainly sand, reached up to 32 cm thickness thinning landwards up to 172 m distance. Even though the Mexican tsunami early warning system (CAT) issued several warnings, the tsunami arrival struck the Chiapas coast prior to the arrival of official warnings to the residents of small coastal towns, owing to the multi-ranked notification system. Thus, a tsunami early warning system with a direct warning to all coastal communities is needed. Some people evacuated under their own initiative, but some did not evacuate. Therefore, community-based education and awareness programs are needed.

The Chile tsunami of 27 February 2010: Field survey and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Petroff, C. M.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Winckler, P.; Kalligeris, N.; Weiss, R.; Meneses, G.; Valderas-Bermejo, C.; Barrientos, S. E.; Ebeling, C. W.; Papadopoulos, A.; Contreras, M.; Almar, R.; Dominguez, J.; Synolakis, C.

2011-12-01

On 27 February, 2010 a magnitude Mw 8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile's Maule region some 100 km N of Concepción, causing substantial damage and loss of life on Chile's mainland and the Juan Fernandez archipelago. The majority of the 521 fatalities are attributed to the earthquake, while the tsunami accounts for 124 victims. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from past tsunamis such as the giant 1960 event, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. The majority of the tsunami victims were tourists staying overnight in low lying camp grounds along the coast. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 3 to 25 March ITST covered an 800 km stretch of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín in various subgroups the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter), while Mocha Island was surveyed 21 to 23 May, 2010. The collected survey data includes more than 400 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked with a localized maximum runup of 29 m on a coastal bluff at Constitución and 23 m on marine terraces on Mocha Island. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along Chile's mainland both at local and regional scales. Inundation and damage also occurred several kilometres inland along rivers. Eyewitness tsunami videos are analysed and flooding velocities presented. Observations from the Chile tsunami are compared against the 1960 Chile, 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Japan tsunamis. The tsunamigenic seafloor displacements were partially characterized based on coastal uplift measurements along a 100 km stretch of coastline between Caleta Chome and Punta Morguilla. More than 2 m vertical uplift were measured on Santa Maria Island. Tsunami propagation in the Pacific Ocean is simulated using the benchmarked tsunami model MOST (Titov and Gonzalez, 1997; Titov and Synolakis, 1998). For initial conditions the inversion model of Lorito et al. (2011) is utilized. The model results highlight the directivity of the highest tsunami waves towards Juan Fernández and Easter Island during the transoceanic propagation. The team interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and educated residents about tsunami hazards since community-based education and awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from locally generated tsunamis.

Observing Tsunamis in the Ionosphere Using Ground Based GPS Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galvan, D. A.; Komjathy, A.; Song, Y. Tony; Stephens, P.; Hickey, M. P.; Foster, J.

2011-01-01

Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following recent seismic events, including the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011. We observe fluctuations correlated in time, space, and wave properties with this tsunami in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the Tohoku tsunami near the epicenter, at Hawaii, and near the west coast of North America. Disturbance magnitudes are 1-10% of the background TEC value. Observations near the epicenter are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement. The potential exists to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for future early warning systems.

Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Abad, S.; González, M.; Larreynaga, J.; Gavidia, F.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Medina, R.

2013-12-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

Disaster risk reduction policies and regulations in Aceh after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syamsidik; Rusydy, I.; Arief, S.; Munadi, K.; Melianda, E.

2017-02-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that struck most of coastal cities in Aceh has motivated a numerous changes in the world of disaster risk reduction including to the policies and regulations at local level in Aceh. This paper is aimed at elaborating the changes of policies and regulations in Aceh captured and monitored during 12-year of the tsunami recovery process. A set of questionnaires were distributed to about 245 respondents in Aceh to represent government officials at 6 districts in Aceh. The districts were severely damaged due to the 2004 tsunami. Four aspects were investigated during this research, namely tsunami evacuation mechanism and infrastructures, disaster risk map, disaster data accessibility, perceptions on tsunami risks, and development of tsunami early warning at local level in Aceh. This research found that the spatial planning in several districts in Aceh have adopted tsunami mitigation although they were only significant in terms of land-use planning within several hundreds meter from the coastline. Perceptions of the government officials toward all investigated aspects were relatively good. One concern was found at coordination among disaster stakeholders in Aceh.

ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

2014-12-01

Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant enhancement of the Tsunami Warning System in the NEAM region in terms of monitoring, early warning and forecast, governance and resilience. This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3)

Probability-Based Design Criteria of the ASCE 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects Provisions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chock, G.

2013-12-01

Mitigation of tsunami risk requires a combination of emergency preparedness for evacuation in addition to providing structural resilience of critical facilities, infrastructure, and key resources necessary for immediate response and economic and social recovery. Critical facilities would include emergency response, medical, tsunami refuges and shelters, ports and harbors, lifelines, transportation, telecommunications, power, financial institutions, and major industrial/commercial facilities. The Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee of the ASCE/SEI 7 Standards Committee is developing a proposed new Chapter 6 - Tsunami Loads and Effects for the 2016 edition of the ASCE 7 Standard. ASCE 7 provides the minimum design loads and requirements for structures subject to building codes such as the International Building Code utilized in the USA. In this paper we will provide a review emphasizing the intent of these new code provisions and explain the design methodology. The ASCE 7 provisions for Tsunami Loads and Effects enables a set of analysis and design methodologies that are consistent with performance-based engineering based on probabilistic criteria. . The ASCE 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects chapter will be initially applicable only to the states of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. Ground shaking effects and subsidence from a preceding local offshore Maximum Considered Earthquake will also be considered prior to tsunami arrival for Alaska and states in the Pacific Northwest regions governed by nearby offshore subduction earthquakes. For national tsunami design provisions to achieve a consistent reliability standard of structural performance for community resilience, a new generation of tsunami inundation hazard maps for design is required. The lesson of recent tsunami is that historical records alone do not provide a sufficient measure of the potential heights of future tsunamis. Engineering design must consider the occurrence of events greater than scenarios in the historical record, and should properly be based on the underlying seismicity of subduction zones. Therefore, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) consistent with source seismicity must be performed in addition to consideration of historical event scenarios. A method of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis has been established that is generally consistent with Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis in the treatment of uncertainty. These new tsunami design zone maps will define the coastal zones where structures of greater importance would be designed for tsunami resistance and community resilience. Structural member acceptability criteria will be based on performance objectives for a 2,500-year Maximum Considered Tsunami. The approach developed by the ASCE Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee of the ASCE 7 Standard would result in the first national unification of tsunami hazard criteria for design codes reflecting the modern approach of Performance-Based Engineering.

Analysis of geodetic interseismic coupling models to estimate tsunami inundation and runup: a study case of Maule seismic gap, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Gonzalez, G.; Aránguiz, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Urrutia, A.; Shrivastava, M. N.; Yagi, Y.; Moreno, M.

2015-12-01

Tsunami inundation maps are a powerful tool to design evacuation plans of coastal communities, additionally can be used as a guide to territorial planning and assessment of structural damages in port facilities and critical infrastructure (Borrero et al., 2003; Barberopoulou et al., 2011; Power et al., 2012; Mueller et al., 2015). The accuracy of inundation estimation is highly correlated with tsunami initial conditions, e.g. seafloor vertical deformation, displaced water volume and potential energy (Bolshakova et al., 2011). Usually, the initial conditions are estimated using homogeneous rupture models based in historical worst-case scenario. However tsunamigenic events occurred in central Chilean continental margin showed a heterogeneous slip distribution of source with patches of high slip, correlated with fully-coupled interseismic zones (Moreno et al., 2012). The main objective of this work is to evaluate the predictive capacity of interseismic coupling models based on geodetic data comparing them with homogeneous fault slip model constructed using scaling laws (Blaser et al., 2010) to estimate inundation and runup in coastal areas. To test our hypothesis we select a seismic gap of Maule, where occurred the last large tsunamigenic earthquake in the chilean subduction zone, using the interseismic coupling models (ISC) proposed by Moreno et al., 2011 and Métois et al., 2013. We generate a slip deficit distribution to build a tsunami source supported by geological information such as slab depth (Hayes et al., 2012), strike, rake and dip (Dziewonski et al., 1981; Ekström et al., 2012) to model tsunami generation, propagation and shoreline impact using Neowave 2D (Yamazaki et al., 2009). We compare the tsunami scenario of Mw 8.8, Maule based in coseismic slip distribution proposed by Moreno et al., 2012 with homogeneous and heterogeneous models to identify the accuracy of our results with sea level time series and regional runup data (Figure 1). The estimation of tsunami source using ISC model can be useful to improve the analysis of tsunami threat, based in more realistic slip distribution.

Probabilistic tsunami inundation map based on stochastic earthquake source model: A demonstration case in Macau, the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Linlin; Switzer, Adam D.; Wang, Yu; Chan, Chung-Han; Qiu, Qiang; Weiss, Robert

2017-04-01

Current tsunami inundation maps are commonly generated using deterministic scenarios, either for real-time forecasting or based on hypothetical "worst-case" events. Such maps are mainly used for emergency response and evacuation planning and do not include the information of return period. However, in practice, probabilistic tsunami inundation maps are required in a wide variety of applications, such as land-use planning, engineer design and for insurance purposes. In this study, we present a method to develop the probabilistic tsunami inundation map using a stochastic earthquake source model. To demonstrate the methodology, we take Macau a coastal city in the South China Sea as an example. Two major advances of this method are: it incorporates the most updated information of seismic tsunamigenic sources along the Manila megathrust; it integrates a stochastic source model into a Monte Carlo-type simulation in which a broad range of slip distribution patterns are generated for large numbers of synthetic earthquake events. When aggregated the large amount of inundation simulation results, we analyze the uncertainties associated with variability of earthquake rupture location and slip distribution. We also explore how tsunami hazard evolves in Macau in the context of sea level rise. Our results suggest Macau faces moderate tsunami risk due to its low-lying elevation, extensive land reclamation, high coastal population and major infrastructure density. Macau consists of four districts: Macau Peninsula, Taipa Island, Coloane island and Cotai strip. Of these Macau Peninsula is the most vulnerable to tsunami due to its low-elevation and exposure to direct waves and refracted waves from the offshore region and reflected waves from mainland. Earthquakes with magnitude larger than Mw8.0 in the northern Manila trench would likely cause hazardous inundation in Macau. Using a stochastic source model, we are able to derive a spread of potential tsunami impacts for earthquakes with the same magnitude. The diversity is caused by both random rupture locations and heterogeneous slip distribution. Adding the sea level rise component, the inundated depth caused by 1 m sea level rise is equivalent to the one caused by 90 percentile of an ensemble of Mw8.4 earthquakes.

Far-Field Simulations of Tele-tsunami Observed in the Atlantic Ocean: Impact on the Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viana-Baptista, M.; Roger, J.; Hebert, H.

2009-12-01

In this study we present the results of far-field numerical modelling of tsunamis generated in the North-Atlantic Ocean and the impact along the coasts. The historical databases for the North East Atlantic area and the Caribbean region present two tele-tsunamis of seismic origin: the 1755.11.01 and the 1761.03.31 events. The impact of the 1755 tsunami in the West Indies and Northern America is extensively described in the historical documents; in fact important wave heights (> 2 m), flooding of low areas and damage and destruction of coastal infrastructures were reported in the West Indies, Brazil and Newfoundland (Canada) for the 1755 event. Recently several authors published the results of far-field simulations, for this event. The 31st March 1761 earthquake occurred at noon and one hour and a quarter after the quake Lisbon was impacted by the tsunami with a maximum amplitude of 8 feet (circa 2.4 meter). Sea water changes were observed along the south coast of Spain, and in the Atlantic Islands of Azores and Madeira. In the far field the most well known report comes from Barbados where the tide ebbed and flowed, in about eight minutes between eighteen inches and two feet. According to the Portuguese catalogue of tsunamis the source location of this event is 34.5°N, 13°W and the magnitude of the generating earthquake is 8.5. We present far-field simulation results in two French Overseas Territories, Guadeloupe and Martinique Islands in the West Indies and in Newfoundland (Canada). The main objective is to discuss the reliability of the available historical reports for this event occurring about 5.5 years after the big Lisbon tsunami. Then we show that such event has to be considered in hazard assessment with regards to the West Indies. Understanding the impact of these two tele-tsunamis is crucial for hazard and risk studies in the Caribbean region and particularly for the Martinique and Guadeloupe Islands. This study has been founded by the French ANR project MAREMOTI under contract ANR-08-RISKNAT-05-01c.

“Hello, HELLO! Anyone there? - on the need to assess the tsunami risk to global submarine telecommunications infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, D.; Goff, J. R.

2009-12-01

National economies are increasingly dependent on the global telecommunications system - and in particular, its submarine cable infrastructure. Submarine cable traffic represents about 30% of global GDP so the cost of losing, or even simply slowing, communications traffic is high. Many natural hazards are capable of damaging and destroying this infrastructure but tsunamis are the most significant threat, particularly in waters >1000 m deep. Submarine cables and their shore-based infrastructure (the anchor points), are at risk from direct and indirect tsunami-related effects. During the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in India and Indonesia, cables were broken (direct effect) as the tsunami eroded supporting sediments, and were further damaged by floating/submerged objects and intense nearshore currents. Shore-based infrastructure was also directly damaged in India, Indonesia, and the Maldives. The 1929 Grand Banks earthquake generated a submarine landslide and tsunami off Newfoundland which broke 12 submarine telegraph cables. In 2006, an earthquake in Taiwan generated submarine landslides and a tsunami. These landslides caused one of the largest disruptions of modern telecommunications history when nine cables in the Strait of Luzon were broken disabling vital connections between SE Asia and the rest of the world. Although electronic traffic in and out of Australia was slowed, it did not cease because >70% of our traffic is routed via cables that pass through Hawaii. This is extremely significant because Hawaii is an internationally recognised bottleneck or “choke point” in the global telecommunications network. The fact that Hawaii is a choke point is important because it is regularly affected by numerous large magnitude natural hazards. Any damage to the submarine telecommunications infrastructure routed through Hawaii could result in significant impacts on the electronic flow of data and voice traffic, negatively affecting dependent economies such as Australia. Other choke points exist globally, many in high hazards regions. We propose that proper risk assessments be undertaken at all bottlenecks in the global telecommunications system affected by natural hazards (such as tsunami). We use Hawaii as an example of the sort of research that should be undertaken.

Source Rupture Models and Tsunami Simulations of Destructive October 28, 2012 Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia (Mw: 7.8) and September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile (Mw: 8.3) Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taymaz, Tuncay; Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Ulutaş, Ergin

2016-04-01

The finite-fault source rupture models and numerical simulations of tsunami waves generated by 28 October 2012 Queen Charlotte Islands (Mw: 7.8), and 16 September 2015 Illapel-Chile (Mw: 8.3) earthquakes are presented. These subduction zone earthquakes have reverse faulting mechanisms with small amount of strike-slip components which clearly reflect the characteristics of convergence zones. The finite-fault slip models of the 2012 Queen Charlotte and 2015 Chile earthquakes are estimated from a back-projection method that uses teleseismic P- waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source. Non-uniform rupture models of the fault plane, which are obtained from the finite fault modeling, are used in order to describe the vertical displacement on seabed. In general, the vertical displacement of water surface was considered to be the same as ocean bottom displacement, and it is assumed to be responsible for the initial water surface deformation gives rise to occurrence of tsunami waves. In this study, it was calculated by using the elastic dislocation algorithm. The results of numerical tsunami simulations are compared with tide gauges and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoy records. De-tiding, de-trending, low-pass and high-pass filters were applied to detect tsunami waves in deep ocean sensors and tide gauge records. As an example, the observed records and results of simulations showed that the 2012 Queen Charlotte Islands earthquake generated about 1 meter tsunami-waves in Maui and Hilo (Hawaii), 5 hours and 30 minutes after the earthquake. Furthermore, the calculated amplitudes and time series of the tsunami waves of the recent 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake are exhibiting good agreement with the records of tide and DART gauges except at stations Valparaiso and Pichidangui (Chile). This project is supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK Project No: CAYDAG-114Y066).

Tsunamis from Tectonic Sources along Caribbean Plate Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, A. M.; Chacon, S.; Zamora, N.; Audemard, F. A.; Dondin, F. J. Y.; Clouard, V.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.

2015-12-01

The Working Group 2 (WG2) of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS) in charge of Tsunami Hazards Assessment, has generated a list of tsunami sources for the Caribbean region. Simulating these worst-case, most credible scenarios would provide an estimate of the resulting effects on coastal areas within the Caribbean. In the past few years, several publications have addressed this issue resulting in a collection of potential tsunami sources and scenarios. These publications come from a wide variety of sources; from government agencies to academic institutions. Although these provide the scientific community with a list of sources and scenarios, it was the interest of the WG2 to evaluate what has been proposed and develop a comprehensive list of sources, therefore leaving aside proposed scenarios. The seismo-tectonics experts of the Caribbean within the WG2 members were tasked to evaluate comprehensively which published sources are credible, worst-cases, and consider other sources that have been omitted from available reports. Among these published sources are the GEM Faulted Earth Subduction Characterization Project, and the LANTEX/Caribe Wave annual exercise publications (2009-2015). Caribbean tectonic features capable of generating tsunamis from seismic dislocation are located along the Northeastern Caribbean, the Lesser Antilles Trench, and the Panamá and Southern Caribbean Deformed Belts. The proposed sources have been evaluated based on historical and instrumental seismicity as well as geological and geophysical studies. This paper presents the sources and their justification as most-probable tsunami sources based on the context of crustal deformation due to Caribbean plate interacting with neighboring North and South America plates. Simulations of these sources is part of a subsequent phase in which effects of these tectonically induced tsunamis are evaluated in the near-field, and wave history snapshots are used to estimate arrival times and coastal effects at other locations within the Caribbean basin. This study is part of a contribution of the WG2 of ICG/CARIBE-EWS to UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2013-12-01

Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field information, however tsunami hazard map based on numerical model should be this process. Tsunami scientists should not enter into the inhumane business by using tsunami numerical model. It includes accountability to society therefore scientists need scientific ethics and humanitarian attention. Should only tsunami scientist have responsibility for human life? Multidisciplinary approach is essential for mitigation like CEMA. I am taking on hazard map training course for disaster management officers from developing countries in JICA training course. I would like to discuss how to improve tsunami hazard map after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami experience in this presentation. A multidisciplinary exparts team of CEMA's tsunami hazard map