2011 Great East Japan tsunami in Okhotsk Sea region: numerical modelings and observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostenko, Irina; Zaytsev, Andrey; Yalciner, Ahmet; Pelinovsky, Efim

2013-04-01

The 11 March, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake with Mw: 9.0 occurred at 05:46:23 UTC with its epicenter estimated at 38.322_N, 142.369_E, and focal depth of 32 km (USGS, 2011). Tsunami waves propagated in Pacific Ocean to all directions. At Russian coast the highest waves were observed in the Kuril Islands (Malokurilskoye, Kunashir Island) which located in between Pacific ocean and the Okhotsk Sea. Kuril island provides limited transmission of tsunami waves from Pacific ocean. tsunami In 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami event, the maximum amplitude of the tsunami was observed as 3 m in Kuril islands. However, tsunami arrived Okhotsk Sea losing a significant amount of energy. Therefore the tsunami amplitudes at the coast of the Okhotsk Sea were smaller. In order to estimate the level of energy loss while passing through the narrow straits of the Kuril Islands, a series of numerical simulations was done by using tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE. Ten largest earthquake shocks capable of generating tsunami were used as inputs of tsunami sources in the modeling. Hence the relation between the transmission of tsunami and the dimensions of the straits are compared and discussed. Finally the characteristics of tsunami propagation (arrival time and coastal amplification) at the coast in the Okhotsk Sea. The varying grid structure is used in numerical modeling in order to make finer analysis of tsunami passing through narrow straits of the Kuril Islands. This allows to combine exactly the installation locations of stationary and computational gauges. The simulation results are compared with the observations. The linear form of shallow water equations are used in the deep ocean region offshore part of the Sea of Okhotsk. Boussinesq type equations were also used at the near shore area in simulations. Since the Okhotsk Sea Results are a semi enclosed basin, the reflection characteristics at the coastal boundaries may be important. The numerical experiments are also extended to investigate the spectral characteristics of the time histories of water level fluctuations in Okhotsk Results is a semi enclosed basin, the reflection characteristics at the coastal boundaries by comparing with the instrumental data from coastal locations. As the summary, the transmission characteristics of tsunami at Kuril islands, the propagation, coastal amplification and reflection characteristics of tsunamis in the Okhotsk Sea are investigated and presented. This study was partly supported by Russian Federation President Award .1935.2012.5

Assessment of tsunami resilience of Haydarpaşa Port in the Sea of Marmara by high-resolution numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aytore, Betul; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Zaytsev, Andrey; Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lütfi

2016-08-01

Turkey is highly prone to earthquakes because of active fault zones in the region. The Marmara region located at the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most tectonically active zones in Turkey. Numerous catastrophic events such as earthquakes or earthquake/landslide-induced tsunamis have occurred in the Marmara Sea basin. According to studies on the past tsunami records, the Marmara coasts have been hit by 35 different tsunami events in the last 2000 years. The recent occurrences of catastrophic tsunamis in the world's oceans have also raised awareness about tsunamis that might take place around the Marmara coasts. Similarly, comprehensive studies on tsunamis, such as preparation of tsunami databases, tsunami hazard analysis and assessments, risk evaluations for the potential tsunami-prone regions, and establishing warning systems have accelerated. However, a complete tsunami inundation analysis in high resolution will provide a better understanding of the effects of tsunamis on a specific critical structure located in the Marmara Sea. Ports are one of those critical structures that are susceptible to marine disasters. Resilience of ports and harbors against tsunamis are essential for proper, efficient, and successful rescue operations to reduce loss of life and property. Considering this, high-resolution simulations have been carried out in the Marmara Sea by focusing on Haydarpaşa Port of the megacity Istanbul. In the first stage of simulations, the most critical tsunami sources possibly effective for Haydarpaşa Port were inputted, and the computed tsunami parameters at the port were compared to determine the most critical tsunami scenario. In the second stage of simulations, the nested domains from 90 m gird size to 10 m grid size (in the port region) were used, and the most critical tsunami scenario was modeled. In the third stage of simulations, the topography of the port and its regions were used in the two nested domains in 3-m and 1-m resolutions and the water elevations computed from the previous simulations were inputted from the border of the large domain. A tsunami numerical code, NAMI DANCE, was used in the simulations. The tsunami parameters in the highest resolution were computed in and around the port. The effect of the data resolution on the computed results has been presented. The performance of the port structures and possible effects of tsunami on port operations have been discussed. Since the harbor protection structures have not been designed to withstand tsunamis, the breakwaters' stability becomes one of the major concerns for less agitation and inundation under tsunami in Haydarpaşa Port for resilience. The flow depth, momentum fluxes, and current pattern are the other concerns that cause unexpected circulations and uncontrolled movements of objects on land and vessels in the sea.

Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined earthquake and landslide sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latcharote, Panon; Suppasri, Anawat; Imamura, Fumihiko; Aytore, Betul; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet

2016-12-01

This study evaluates tsunami hazards in the Marmara Sea from possible worst-case tsunami scenarios that are from submarine earthquakes and landslides. In terms of fault-generated tsunamis, seismic ruptures can propagate along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which has produced historical tsunamis in the Marmara Sea. Based on the past studies, which consider fault-generated tsunamis and landslide-generated tsunamis individually, future scenarios are expected to generate tsunamis, and submarine landslides could be triggered by seismic motion. In addition to these past studies, numerical modeling has been applied to tsunami generation and propagation from combined earthquake and landslide sources. In this study, tsunami hazards are evaluated from both individual and combined cases of submarine earthquakes and landslides through numerical tsunami simulations with a grid size of 90 m for bathymetry and topography data for the entire Marmara Sea region and validated with historical observations from the 1509 and 1894 earthquakes. This study implements TUNAMI model with a two-layer model to conduct numerical tsunami simulations, and the numerical results show that the maximum tsunami height could reach 4.0 m along Istanbul shores for a full submarine rupture of the NAF, with a fault slip of 5.0 m in the eastern and western basins of the Marmara Sea. The maximum tsunami height for landslide-generated tsunamis from small, medium, and large of initial landslide volumes (0.15, 0.6, and 1.5 km3, respectively) could reach 3.5, 6.0, and 8.0 m, respectively, along Istanbul shores. Possible tsunamis from submarine landslides could be significantly higher than those from earthquakes, depending on the landslide volume significantly. These combined earthquake and landslide sources only result in higher tsunami amplitudes for small volumes significantly because of amplification within the same tsunami amplitude scale (3.0-4.0 m). Waveforms from all the coasts around the Marmara Sea indicate that other residential areas might have had a high risk of tsunami hazards from submarine landslides, which can generate higher tsunami amplitudes and shorter arrival times, compared to Istanbul.

Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards in Kuwait from Possible Earthquake and Landslide Sources considering Effect of Natural Tide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latcharote, P.

2016-12-01

Kuwait is one of the most important oil producers to the world and most of population and many vital facilities are located along the coasts. However, even with low or unknown tsunami risk, it is important to investigate tsunami hazards in this country to ensure safety of life and sustain the global economy. This study aimed to evaluate tsunami hazards along the coastal areas of Kuwait from both earthquake and landslide sources using numerical modeling. Tsunami generation and propagation was simulated using the two-layer model and the TUNAMI model. Four cases of earthquake scenarios are expected to generate tsunami along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) based on historical events and worst cases possible to simulate tsunami propagation to the coastal areas of the Arabian Gulf. Case 1 (Mw 8.3) and Case 2 (Mw 8.3) are the replication of the 1945 Makran earthquake, whereas Case 3 (Mw 8.6) and Case 4 (Mw 9.0) are the worst-case scenarios. Tsunami numerical simulation was modelled with mesh size 30 arc-second using bathymetry and topography data from GEBCO. Preliminary results suggested that tsunamis generated by Case 1 and Case 2 will impose very small effects to Kuwait (< 0.1 m) while Case 3 and Case 4 can generate maximum tsunami amplitude up to 0.3 m to 1.0 m after 12 hours from the earthquake. In addition, this study considered tsunamis generated by landslide along the opposite Iranian coast of Kuwait bay. To preliminarily assess tsunami hazards, coastal landslides were assumed occurred at the volume of 1.0-2.0 km3 at three possible locations from their topographic features. The preliminary results revealed that tsunami generated by coastal landslides could impose a significant tsunami impact to Kuwait having maximum tsunami amplitude at the Falika Island in front of Kuwait bay and Azzour power and desalination plant about 0.5 m- 1.1 m depending on landslide volume and energy dissipation. Future works will include more accuracy of tsunami numerical simulation with higher resolution of bathymetry and topography data in order to investigate tsunami inundation. Furthermore, detailed analysis on possible landslide sources will be performed by means of 3D-slope stability analysis in order to know the exact locations and landslide volumes taking into account the geological conditions, such as surface elevation and soil property data.

Tsunami-induced morphological change of a coastal lake: comparing hydraulic experiment with numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugawara, D.; Imai, K.; Mitobe, Y.; Takahashi, T.

2016-12-01

Coastal lakes are one of the promising environments to identify deposits of past tsunamis, and such deposits have been an important key to know the recurrence of tsunami events. In contrast to tsunami deposits on the coastal plains, however, relationship between deposit geometry and tsunami hydrodynamic character in the coastal lakes has poorly been understood. Flume experiment and numerical modeling will be important measures to clarify such relationship. In this study, data from a series of flume experiment were compared with simulations by an existing tsunami sediment transport model to examine applicability of the numerical model for tsunami-induced morphological change in a coastal lake. A coastal lake with a non-erodible beach ridge was modeled as the target geomorphology. The ridge separates the lake from the offshore part of the flume, and the lake bottom was filled by sand. Tsunami bore was generated by a dam-break flow, which is capable of generating a maximum near-bed flow speed of 2.5 m/s. Test runs with varying magnitude of the bore demonstrated that the duration of tsunami overflow controls the scouring depth of the lake bottom behind the ridge. The maximum scouring depth reached up to 7 cm, and sand deposition occurred mainly in the seaward-half of the lake. A conventional depth-averaged tsunami hydrodynamic model coupled with the sediment transport model was used to compare the simulation and experimental results. In the Simulation, scouring depth behind the ridge reached up to 6 cm. In addition, the width of the scouring was consistent between the simulation and experiment. However, sand deposition occurred mainly in a zone much far from the ridge, showing a considerable deviation from the experimental results. This may be associated with the lack of model capability to resolve some important physics, such as vortex generation behind the ridge and shoreward migration of hydraulic jump. In this presentation, the results from the flume experiment and the numerical modeling will be compared in detail, including temporal evolution of the morphological change. In addition, model applicability and future improvements will be discussed.

Tsunami hazard maps of spanish coast at national scale from seismic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; González, Mauricio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; García, Pablo

2017-04-01

Tsunamis are a moderately frequent phenomenon in the NEAM (North East Atlantic and Mediterranean) region, and consequently in Spain, as historic and recent events have affected this area. I.e., the 1755 earthquake and tsunami affected the Spanish Atlantic coasts of Huelva and Cadiz and the 2003 Boumerdés earthquake triggered a tsunami that reached Balearic island coast in less than 45 minutes. The risk in Spain is real and, its population and tourism rate makes it vulnerable to this kind of catastrophic events. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the tsunami in Japan in 2011 launched the worldwide development and application of tsunami risk reduction measures that have been taken as a priority in this field. On November 20th 2015 the directive of the Spanish civil protection agency on planning under the emergency of tsunami was presented. As part of the Spanish National Security strategy, this document specifies the structure of the action plans at different levels: National, regional and local. In this sense, the first step is the proper evaluation of the tsunami hazard at National scale. This work deals with the assessment of the tsunami hazard in Spain, by means of numerical simulations, focused on the elaboration of tsunami hazard maps at National scale. To get this, following a deterministic approach, the seismic structures whose earthquakes could generate the worst tsunamis affecting the coast of Spain have been compiled and characterized. These worst sources have been propagated numerically along a reconstructed bathymetry, built from the best resolution available data. This high-resolution bathymetry was joined with a 25-m resolution DTM, to generate continuous offshore-onshore space, allowing the calculation of the flooded areas prompted by each selected source. The numerical model applied for the calculation of the tsunami propagations was COMCOT. The maps resulting from the numerical simulations show not only the tsunami amplitude at coastal areas but also the run-up and inundation length from the coastline. The run-up has been calculated with numerical model, complemented with an alternative method, based on interpolation on a tsunami run-up database created ad hoc. These estimated variables allow the identification of the most affected areas in case of tsunami and they are also the base for the local authorities to evaluate the necessity of new higher resolution studies at local scale on specific areas.

Rapid inundation estimates using coastal amplification laws in the western Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, Audrey; Loevenbruck, Anne; Hébert, Hélène

2014-05-01

Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed and have now reached an impressive level of accuracy, especially in locations such as harbors where the tsunami waves are mostly amplified. In the framework of tsunami warning under real-time operational conditions, the main obstacle for the routine use of such numerical simulations remains the slowness of the numerical computation, which is strengthened when detailed grids are required for the precise modeling of the coastline response of an individual harbor. Thus only tsunami offshore propagation modeling tools using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid are presently included within the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT), providing rapid estimation of tsunami warning at western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins scale. We present here a preliminary work that performs quick estimates of the inundation at individual harbors from these high sea forecasting tsunami simulations. The method involves an empirical correction based on theoretical amplification laws (either Green's or Synolakis laws). The main limitation is that its application to a given coastal area would require a large database of previous observations, in order to define the empirical parameters of the correction equation. As no such data (i.e., historical tide gage records of significant tsunamis) are available for the western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins, we use a set of synthetic mareograms, calculated for both fake events and well-known historical tsunamigenic earthquakes in the area. This synthetic dataset is obtained through accurate numerical tsunami propagation and inundation modeling by using several nested bathymetric grids of increasingly fine resolution close to the shores (down to a grid cell size of 3m in some Mediterranean harbors). Non linear shallow water tsunami modeling performed on a single 2' coarse bathymetric grid are compared to the values given by time-consuming nested grids simulations (and observation when available), in order to check to which extent the simple approach based on the amplification laws can explain the data. The idea is to fit tsunami data with numerical modeling carried out without any refined coastal bathymetry/topography. To this end several parameters are discussed, namely the bathymetric depth to which model results must be extrapolated (using the Green's law), or the mean bathymetric slope to consider near the studied coast (when using the Synolakis law).

Rapid Determination of Appropriate Source Models for Tsunami Early Warning using a Depth Dependent Rigidity Curve: Method and Numerical Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Y.; Miranda, G. J. A.; Gusman, A. R.

2017-12-01

Recently, tsunami early warning technique has been improved using tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure gauges such as NOAA DART system or DONET and S-NET systems in Japan. However, for tsunami early warning of near field tsunamis, it is essential to determine appropriate source models using seismological analysis before large tsunamis hit the coast, especially for tsunami earthquakes which generated significantly large tsunamis. In this paper, we develop a technique to determine appropriate source models from which appropriate tsunami inundation along the coast can be numerically computed The technique is tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off Central America. In this study, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, then the fault length and width were determined from scaling relationships. At first, the slip amount was calculated from the seismic moment with a constant rigidity of 3.5 x 10**10N/m2. The tsunami numerical simulation was carried out and compared with the observed tsunami. For the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake, the computed tsunami was much smaller than the observed one. For the 2004 El Astillero earthquake, the computed tsunami was overestimated. In order to solve this problem, we constructed a depth dependent rigidity curve, similar to suggested by Bilek and Lay (1999). The curve with a central depth estimated by the W-phase inversion was used to calculate the slip amount of the fault model. Using those new slip amounts, tsunami numerical simulation was carried out again. Then, the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas for the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake were well explained by the computed one. The other tsunamis from the other three earthquakes were also reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our technique using a depth dependent rigidity curve is worked to estimate an appropriate fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast in Central America. The technique may be worked in the other subduction zones by finding a depth dependent rigidity curve in that particular subduction zone.

Landslide Tsunami Hazard in Madeira Island, NE Atlantic - Numerical Simulation of the 4 March 1930 Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Quartau, R.; Ramalho, M. I.

2017-12-01

Madeira, the main Island of the Madeira Archipelago with an area of 728 km2, is a North East Atlantic volcanic Island highly susceptible to cliff instability. Historical records contain accounts of a number of mass-wasting events along the Island, namely in 1969, 1804, 1929 and 1930. Collapses of cliffs are major hazards in oceanic Islands as they involve relatively large volumes of material, generating fast running debris avalanches, and even cause destructive tsunamis when entering the sea. On March 4th, 1930, a sector of the Cape Girão cliff, located in the southern shore of Madeira Island, collapsed into the sea and generated an 8 m tsunami wave height. The landslide-induced tsunami propagated along Madeirás south coast and flooded the Vigário beach, 200-300 m of inundation extent, causing 20 casualties. In this study, we investigate the 1930 subaerial landslide-induced tsunami and its impact on the nearest coasts using numerical modelling. We first reconstruct the pre-event morphology of the area, and then simulate the initial movement of the sliding mass, the propagation of the tsunami wave and the inundation of the coast. We use a multi-layer numerical model, in which the lower layer represents the deformable slide, assumed to be a visco-plastic fluid, and bounded above by air, in the subaerial motion phase, and by seawater governed by shallow water equations. The results of the simulation are compared with the historical descriptions of the event to calibrate the numerical model and evaluate the coastal impact of a similar event in present-day coastline configuration of the Island. This work is supported by FCT- project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz and by TROYO project.

Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu

2017-04-01

Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province.

2006 - 2016: Ten Years Of Tsunami In French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, D.; Jamelot, A.; Hyvernaud, O.

2016-12-01

Located in South central Pacific and despite of its far field situation, the French Polynesia is very much concerned by the tsunamis generated along the major subduction zones located around the Pacific. At the time of writing, 10 tsunamis have been generated in the Pacific Ocean since 2006; all these events recorded in French Polynesia, produced different levels of warning, starting from a simple seismic warning with an information bulletin, up to an effective tsunami warning with evacuation of the coastal zone. These tsunamigenic events represent an invaluable opportunity of evolutions and tests of the tsunami warning system developed in French Polynesia: during the last ten years, the warning rules had evolved from a simple criterion of magnitudes up to the computation of the main seismic source parameters (location, slowness determinant (Newman & Okal, 1998) and focal geometry) using two independent methods: the first one uses an inversion of W-phases (Kanamori & Rivera, 2012) and the second one performs an inversion of long period surface waves (Clément & Reymond, 2014); the source parameters such estimated allow to compute in near real time the expected distributions of tsunami heights (with the help of a super-computer and parallelized codes of numerical simulations). Furthermore, two kinds of numerical modeling are used: the first one, very rapid (performed in about 5minutes of computation time) is based on the Green's law (Jamelot & Reymond, 2015), and a more detailed and precise one that uses classical numerical simulations through nested grids (about 45 minutes of computation time). Consequently, the criteria of tsunami warning are presently based on the expected tsunami heights in the different archipelagos and islands of French Polynesia. This major evolution allows to differentiate and use different levels of warning for the different archipelagos,working in tandem with the Civil Defense. We present the comparison of the historical observed tsunami heights (instrumental records, including deep ocean measurements provided by DART buoys and measured of tsunamis run-up) to the computed ones. In addition, the sites known for their amplification and resonance effects are well reproduced by the numerical simulations.

Numerical Simulation of Several Tectonic Tsunami Sources at the Caribbean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacon-Barrantes, S. E.; Lopez, A. M.; Macias, J.; Zamora, N.; Moore, C. W.; Llorente Isidro, M.

2016-12-01

The Tsunami Hazard Assessment Working Group (WG2) of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS), has been tasked to identify tsunami sources for the Caribbean region and evaluate their effects along Caribbean coasts. A list of tectonic sources was developed and presented at the Fall 2015 AGU meeting and the WG2 is currently working on a list of non-tectonic sources. In addition, three Experts Meetings have already been held in 2016 to define worst-case, most credible scenarios for southern Hispaniola and Central America. The WG2 has been tasked to simulate these scenarios to provide an estimate of the resulting effects on coastal areas within the Caribbean. In this study we simulated tsunamis with two leading numerical models (NEOWAVE and Tsunami-HySEA) to compare results among them and report on the consequences for the Caribbean region if a tectonically-induced tsunami occurs in any of these postulated sources. The considered sources are located offshore Central America, at the North Panamá Deformed Belt (NPDB), at the South Caribbean Deformed Belt (SCDB) and around La Hispaniola Island. Results obtained in this study are critical to develop a catalog of scenarios that can be used in future CaribeWave exercises, as well as their usage for ICG/CARIBE-EWS member states as input to model tsunami inundation for their coastal locations. Data from inundation parameters are an additional step to produce tsunami evacuation maps, and develop plans and procedures to increase tsunami awareness and preparedness within the Caribbean.

Statistical emulation of landslide-induced tsunamis at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic

PubMed Central

Guillas, S.; Georgiopoulou, A.; Dias, F.

2017-01-01

Statistical methods constitute a useful approach to understand and quantify the uncertainty that governs complex tsunami mechanisms. Numerical experiments may often have a high computational cost. This forms a limiting factor for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, where numerous simulations are required. Statistical emulators, as surrogates of these simulators, can provide predictions of the physical process in a much faster and computationally inexpensive way. They can form a prominent solution to explore thousands of scenarios that would be otherwise numerically expensive and difficult to achieve. In this work, we build a statistical emulator of the deterministic codes used to simulate submarine sliding and tsunami generation at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic Ocean, in two stages. First we calibrate, against observations of the landslide deposits, the parameters used in the landslide simulations. This calibration is performed under a Bayesian framework using Gaussian Process (GP) emulators to approximate the landslide model, and the discrepancy function between model and observations. Distributions of the calibrated input parameters are obtained as a result of the calibration. In a second step, a GP emulator is built to mimic the coupled landslide-tsunami numerical process. The emulator propagates the uncertainties in the distributions of the calibrated input parameters inferred from the first step to the outputs. As a result, a quantification of the uncertainty of the maximum free surface elevation at specified locations is obtained. PMID:28484339

Statistical emulation of landslide-induced tsunamis at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic.

PubMed

Salmanidou, D M; Guillas, S; Georgiopoulou, A; Dias, F

2017-04-01

Statistical methods constitute a useful approach to understand and quantify the uncertainty that governs complex tsunami mechanisms. Numerical experiments may often have a high computational cost. This forms a limiting factor for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, where numerous simulations are required. Statistical emulators, as surrogates of these simulators, can provide predictions of the physical process in a much faster and computationally inexpensive way. They can form a prominent solution to explore thousands of scenarios that would be otherwise numerically expensive and difficult to achieve. In this work, we build a statistical emulator of the deterministic codes used to simulate submarine sliding and tsunami generation at the Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic Ocean, in two stages. First we calibrate, against observations of the landslide deposits, the parameters used in the landslide simulations. This calibration is performed under a Bayesian framework using Gaussian Process (GP) emulators to approximate the landslide model, and the discrepancy function between model and observations. Distributions of the calibrated input parameters are obtained as a result of the calibration. In a second step, a GP emulator is built to mimic the coupled landslide-tsunami numerical process. The emulator propagates the uncertainties in the distributions of the calibrated input parameters inferred from the first step to the outputs. As a result, a quantification of the uncertainty of the maximum free surface elevation at specified locations is obtained.

Display of historical and hypothetical tsunami on the coast of Sakhalin Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostenko, Irina; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Yalciner, Ahmet

2014-05-01

Tsunami waves achieve the coast of the Sakhalin Island and their sources are located in the Japan Sea, in the Okhotsk Sea, in Kuril Islands region and in the Pacific Ocean. Study of tsunami generation characteristics and its propagation allows studying display of the tsunami on the various parts of the island coast. For this purpose the series of computational experiments of some historical tsunamis was carried out. Their sources located in Japan Sea and Kuril Islands region. The simulation results are compared with the observations. Analysis of all recorded historical tsunami on coast of Sakhalin Island was done. To identify the possible display of the tsunami on the coast of Sakhalin Island the series of computational experiments of hypothetical tsunamis was carried out. Their sources located in the Japan Sea and in the Okhotsk Sea. There were used hydrodynamic sources. There were used different parameters of sources (length, width, height, raising and lowering of sea level), which correspond to earthquakes of various magnitudes. The analysis of the results was carried out. Pictures of the distribution of maximum amplitudes from each tsunami were done. Areas of Okhotsk Sea, Japan Sea and offshore strip of Sakhalin Island with maximum tsunami amplitudes were defined. Graphs of the distribution of maximum tsunami wave heights along the coast of the Sakhalin Island were plotted. Based on shallow-water equation tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for numerical simulations. This work was supported by ASTARTE project.

Boulder Dislodgment Reloaded: New insights from boulder transport and dislodgement by tsunamis and storms from three-dimensional numerical simulations with GPUSPH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, R.; Zainali, A.

2014-12-01

Boulders can be found on many coastlines around the globe. They are generally thought to be moved either during coastal storms or tsunamis because they are too heavy to be moved by more common marine or coastal processes. To understand storm and tsunami risk at given coastline, the event histories of both events need to be separated to produce a robust event statistics for quantitative risk analyses. Because boulders are most likely only moved by coastal storms or tsunamis, they are very suitable to produce the data basis for such event statistics. Boulder transport problem has been approached by comparing the driving with resisting forces acting on a boulder. However, we argue that this approach is not sufficient because the comparison of resisting and driving forces only constitutes boulder motion, but not for boulder dislodgment. Boulder motion means that the boulder starts to move out of its pocket. However, this motion does not guarantee that the boulder will reach the critical dislodgment position. Boulder dislodgment is a necessary condition to identify whether or not a boulder has moved. For boulder dislodgement, an equation of motion is needed, and that equation is Newtons Second Law of Motion (NSL). We perform fully coupled three-dimensional numerical simulation of boulders moved by waves where the boulders move according to NSL. Our numerical simulations are the first of their kind applied to tsunami and storm boulder motion. They show how storm and tsunami waves interact with boulders in a more realistic physical setting, and highlight the importance of submergence. Based on our simulations we perform a dimensional analysis that identifies the Froude number as important parameter, which can be considered large only in the front of tsunami waves, but small in the rest of tsunami wave and also generally small in storm waves. From a general point of view, our results indicate that the boulder transport problem is more complex than recently considered, and more variables need to be considered in inversions of the wave characteristics from moved boulders. However, numerical simulations are an incredible powerful and flexible tool with which more robust and more correct techniques to invert wave characteristics from moved boulders can be developed. Our analyses of the Froude number and submergence are positive indicators.

Seismic behavior of breakwaters on complex ground by numerical tests: Liquefaction and post liquefaction ground settlements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Linlin; Zhang, Feng; Bao, Xiaohua; Shi, Zhenming; Ye, Guanlin; Ling, Xianzhang

2018-04-01

A large number of breakwaters have been constructed along coasts to protect humans and infrastructures from tsunamis. There is a risk that foundation soils of these structures may liquefy, or partially liquefy during the earthquake preceding a tsunami, which would greatly reduce the structures' capacity to resist the tsunami. It is necessary to consider not only the soil's liquefaction behavior due to earthquake motions but also its post-liquefaction behavior because this behavior will affect the breakwater's capacity to resist an incoming tsunami. In this study, numerical tests based on a sophisticated constitutive model and a soil-water coupled finite element method are used to predict the mechanical behavior of breakwaters and the surrounding soils. Two real breakwaters subjected to two different seismic excitations are examined through numerical simulation. The simulation results show that, earthquakes affect not only the immediate behavior of breakwaters and the surrounding soils but also their long-term settlements due to post-earthquake consolidation. A soil profile with thick clayey layers beneath liquefied soil is more vulnerable to tsunami than a soil profile with only sandy layers. Therefore, quantitatively evaluating the seismic behavior of breakwaters and surrounding soils is important for the design of breakwater structures to resist tsunamis.

Coastal Amplification Laws for the French Tsunami Warning Center: Numerical Modeling and Fast Estimate of Tsunami Wave Heights Along the French Riviera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Reymond, D.

2017-11-01

Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide rapidly derived warning levels with a dimensionless variable at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observations in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The preliminary results for the Nice test site on the basis of nine historical and synthetic sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation is obtained within 1 min in general and provides estimates within a factor of two in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really assessed because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method is well suited for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.

Coastal amplification laws for the French tsunami Warning Center: numerical modeling and fast estimate of tsunami wave heights along the French Riviera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, A.; Schindelé, F.; Hebert, H.; Reymond, D.

2017-12-01

Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide for now warning levels with a no dimension scale, and at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observation in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The first encouraging results for the Nice test site on the basis of 9 historical and fake sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation provides within in general 1 minute estimates less a factor of 2 in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really appreciated because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method suits well for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.

Coastal Amplification Laws for the French Tsunami Warning Center: Numerical Modeling and Fast Estimate of Tsunami Wave Heights Along the French Riviera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Reymond, D.

2018-04-01

Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide rapidly derived warning levels with a dimensionless variable at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observations in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The preliminary results for the Nice test site on the basis of nine historical and synthetic sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation is obtained within 1 min in general and provides estimates within a factor of two in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really assessed because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method is well suited for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.

A review of mechanisms and modelling procedures for landslide tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn; Harbitz, Carl B.; Glimsdal, Sylfest

2017-04-01

Landslides, including volcano flank collapses or volcanically induced flows, constitute the second-most important cause of tsunamis after earthquakes. Compared to earthquakes, landslides are more diverse with respect to how they generation tsunamis. Here, we give an overview over the main tsunami generation mechanisms for landslide tsunamis. In the presentation, a mix of results using analytical models, numerical models, laboratory experiments, and case studies are used to illustrate the diversity, but also to point out some common characteristics. Different numerical modelling techniques for the landslide evolution, and the tsunami generation and propagation, as well as the effect of frequency dispersion, are also briefly discussed. Basic tsunami generation mechanisms for different types of landslides, including large submarine translational landslide, to impulsive submarine slumps, and violent subaerial landslides and volcano flank collapses, are reviewed. The importance of the landslide kinematics is given attention, including the interplay between landslide acceleration, landslide velocity to depth ratio (Froude number) and dimensions. Using numerical simulations, we demonstrate how landslide deformation and retrogressive failure development influence tsunamigenesis. Generation mechanisms for subaerial landslides, are reviewed by means of scaling relations from laboratory experiments and numerical modelling. Finally, it is demonstrated how the different degree of complexity in the landslide tsunamigenesis needs to be reflected by increased sophistication in numerical models.

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Risi, Raffaele; Goda, Katsuichiro

2017-08-01

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decision-making regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

Tsunami Detection by High Frequency Radar Beyond the Continental Shelf: II. Extension of Time Correlation Algorithm and Validation on Realistic Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grilli, Stéphan T.; Guérin, Charles-Antoine; Shelby, Michael; Grilli, Annette R.; Moran, Patrick; Grosdidier, Samuel; Insua, Tania L.

2017-08-01

In past work, tsunami detection algorithms (TDAs) have been proposed, and successfully applied to offline tsunami detection, based on analyzing tsunami currents inverted from high-frequency (HF) radar Doppler spectra. With this method, however, the detection of small and short-lived tsunami currents in the most distant radar ranges is challenging due to conflicting requirements on the Doppler spectra integration time and resolution. To circumvent this issue, in Part I of this work, we proposed an alternative TDA, referred to as time correlation (TC) TDA, that does not require inverting currents, but instead detects changes in patterns of correlations of radar signal time series measured in pairs of cells located along the main directions of tsunami propagation (predicted by geometric optics theory); such correlations can be maximized when one signal is time-shifted by the pre-computed long wave propagation time. We initially validated the TC-TDA based on numerical simulations of idealized tsunamis in a simplified geometry. Here, we further develop, extend, and apply the TC algorithm to more realistic tsunami case studies. These are performed in the area West of Vancouver Island, BC, where Ocean Networks Canada recently deployed a HF radar (in Tofino, BC), to detect tsunamis from far- and near-field sources, up to a 110 km range. Two case studies are considered, both simulated using long wave models (1) a far-field seismic, and (2) a near-field landslide, tsunami. Pending the availability of radar data, a radar signal simulator is parameterized for the Tofino HF radar characteristics, in particular its signal-to-noise ratio with range, and combined with the simulated tsunami currents to produce realistic time series of backscattered radar signal from a dense grid of cells. Numerical experiments show that the arrival of a tsunami causes a clear change in radar signal correlation patterns, even at the most distant ranges beyond the continental shelf, thus making an early tsunami detection possible with the TC-TDA. Based on these results, we discuss how the new algorithm could be combined with standard methods proposed earlier, based on a Doppler analysis, to develop a new tsunami detection system based on HF radar data, that could increase warning time. This will be the object of future work, which will be based on actual, rather than simulated, radar data.

Numerical tool for tsunami risk assessment in the southern coast of Dominican Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias Sanchez, J.; Llorente Isidro, M.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Sr.; Castro, M. J.

2016-12-01

The southern coast of Dominican Republic is a very populated region, with several important cities including Santo Domingo, its capital. Important activities are rooted in the southern coast including tourism, industry, commercial ports, and, energy facilities, among others. According to historical reports, it has been impacted by big earthquakes accompanied by tsunamis as in Azua in 1751 and recently Pedernales in 2010, but their sources are not clearly identified. The aim of the present work is to develop a numerical tool to simulate the impact in the southern coast of the Dominican Republic of tsunamis generated in the Caribbean Sea. This tool, based on the Tsunami-HySEA model from EDANYA group (University of Malaga, Spain), could be used in the framework of a Tsunami Early Warning Systems due the very short computing times when only propagation is computed or it could be used to assess inundation impact, computing inundation with a initial 5 meter resolution. Numerical results corresponding to three theoretical sources are used to test the numerical tool.

The tsunami phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röbke, B. R.; Vött, A.

2017-12-01

With human activity increasingly concentrating on coasts, tsunamis (from Japanese tsu = harbour, nami = wave) are a major natural hazard to today's society. Stimulated by disastrous tsunami impacts in recent years, for instance in south-east Asia (2004) or in Japan (2011), tsunami science has significantly flourished, which has brought great advances in hazard assessment and mitigation plans. Based on tsunami research of the last decades, this paper provides a thorough treatise on the tsunami phenomenon from a geoscientific point of view. Starting with the wave features, tsunamis are introduced as long shallow water waves or wave trains crossing entire oceans without major energy loss. At the coast, tsunamis typically show wave shoaling, funnelling and resonance effects as well as a significant run-up and backflow. Tsunami waves are caused by a sudden displacement of the water column due to a number of various trigger mechanisms. Such are earthquakes as the main trigger, submarine and subaerial mass wastings, volcanic activity, atmospheric disturbances (meteotsunamis) and cosmic impacts, as is demonstrated by giving corresponding examples from the past. Tsunamis are known to have a significant sedimentary and geomorphological off- and onshore response. So-called tsunamites form allochthonous high-energy deposits that are left at the coast during tsunami landfall. Tsunami deposits show typical sedimentary features, as basal erosional unconformities, fining-upward and -landward, a high content of marine fossils, rip-up clasts from underlying units and mud caps, all reflecting the hydrodynamic processes during inundation. The on- and offshore behaviour of tsunamis and related sedimentary processes can be simulated using hydro- and morphodynamic numerical models. The paper provides an overview of the basic tsunami modelling techniques, including discretisation, guidelines for appropriate temporal and spatial resolution as well as the nesting method. Furthermore, the Boussinesq approximation-a simplification of the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations-is presented as a basic theory behind numerical tsunami models, which adequately reflects the non-linear, dispersive wave behaviour of tsunamis. The fully non-linear Boussinesq equations allow the simulation of tsunamis e.g. in the form of N-waves. Based on the various subtopics presented, recommendations for future multidisciplinary tsunami research are made. It is especially discussed how the combination of sedimentary and geomorphological tsunami field traces and numerical modelling techniques can contribute to derive locally relevant tsunami sources and to improve the assessment of tsunami hazards considering the individual pre-/history and physiogeographical setting of a specific region.

Tsunami Modeling to Validate Slip Models of the 2007 M w 8.0 Pisco Earthquake, Central Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioualalen, M.; Perfettini, H.; Condo, S. Yauri; Jimenez, C.; Tavera, H.

2013-03-01

Following the 2007, August 15th, M w 8.0, Pisco earthquake in central Peru, Sladen et al. (J Geophys Res 115: B02405, 2010) have derived several slip models of this event. They inverted teleseismic data together with geodetic (InSAR) measurements to look for the co-seismic slip distribution on the fault plane, considering those data sets separately or jointly. But how close to the real slip distribution are those inverted slip models? To answer this crucial question, the authors generated some tsunami records based on their slip models and compared them to DART buoys, tsunami records, and available runup data. Such an approach requires a robust and accurate tsunami model (non-linear, dispersive, accurate bathymetry and topography, etc.) otherwise the differences between the data and the model may be attributed to the slip models themselves, though they arise from an incomplete tsunami simulation. The accuracy of a numerical tsunami simulation strongly depends, among others, on two important constraints: (i) A fine computational grid (and thus the bathymetry and topography data sets used) which is not always available, unfortunately, and (ii) a realistic tsunami propagation model including dispersion. Here, we extend Sladen's work using newly available data, namely a tide gauge record at Callao (Lima harbor) and the Chilean DART buoy record, while considering a complete set of runup data along with a more realistic tsunami numerical that accounts for dispersion, and also considering a fine-resolution computational grid, which is essential. Through these accurate numerical simulations we infer that the InSAR-based model is in better agreement with the tsunami data, studying the case of the Pisco earthquake indicating that geodetic data seems essential to recover the final co-seismic slip distribution on the rupture plane. Slip models based on teleseismic data are unable to describe the observed tsunami, suggesting that a significant amount of co-seismic slip may have been aseismic. Finally, we compute the runup distribution along the central part of the Peruvian coast to better understand the wave amplification/attenuation processes of the tsunami generated by the Pisco earthquake.

Speeding up tsunami wave propagation modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavrentyev, Mikhail; Romanenko, Alexey

2014-05-01

Trans-oceanic wave propagation is one of the most time/CPU consuming parts of the tsunami modeling process. The so-called Method Of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) software package, developed at PMEL NOAA USA (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA), is widely used to evaluate the tsunami parameters. However, it takes time to simulate trans-ocean wave propagation, that is up to 5 hours CPU time to "drive" the wave from Chili (epicenter) to the coast of Japan (even using a rather coarse computational mesh). Accurate wave height prediction requires fine meshes which leads to dramatic increase in time for simulation. Computation time is among the critical parameter as it takes only about 20 minutes for tsunami wave to approach the coast of Japan after earthquake at Japan trench or Sagami trench (as it was after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011). MOST solves numerically the hyperbolic system for three unknown functions, namely velocity vector and wave height (shallow water approximation). The system could be split into two independent systems by orthogonal directions (splitting method). Each system can be treated independently. This calculation scheme is well suited for SIMD architecture and GPUs as well. We performed adaptation of MOST package to GPU. Several numerical tests showed 40x performance gain for NVIDIA Tesla C2050 GPU vs. single core of Intel i7 processor. Results of numerical experiments were compared with other available simulation data. Calculation results, obtained at GPU, differ from the reference ones by 10^-3 cm of the wave height simulating 24 hours wave propagation. This allows us to speak about possibility to develop real-time system for evaluating tsunami danger.

Numerical Simulation of Evacuation Process in Malaysia By Using Distinct-Element-Method Based Multi-Agent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abustan, M. S.; Rahman, N. A.; Gotoh, H.; Harada, E.; Talib, S. H. A.

2016-07-01

In Malaysia, not many researches on crowd evacuation simulation had been reported. Hence, the development of numerical crowd evacuation process by taking into account people behavioral patterns and psychological characteristics is crucial in Malaysia. On the other hand, tsunami disaster began to gain attention of Malaysian citizens after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that need quick evacuation process. In relation to the above circumstances, we have conducted simulations of tsunami evacuation process at the Miami Beach of Penang Island by using Distinct Element Method (DEM)-based crowd behavior simulator. The main objectives are to investigate and reproduce current conditions of evacuation process at the said locations under different hypothetical scenarios for the efficiency study of the evacuation. The sim-1 is initial condition of evacuation planning while sim-2 as improvement of evacuation planning by adding new evacuation area. From the simulation result, sim-2 have a shorter time of evacuation process compared to the sim-1. The evacuation time recuded 53 second. The effect of the additional evacuation place is confirmed from decreasing of the evacuation completion time. Simultaneously, the numerical simulation may be promoted as an effective tool in studying crowd evacuation process.

Rapid processing of data based on high-performance algorithms for solving inverse problems and 3D-simulation of the tsunami and earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinin, I. V.; Kabanikhin, S. I.; Krivorotko, O. I.; Karas, A.; Khidasheli, D. G.

2012-04-01

We consider new techniques and methods for earthquake and tsunami related problems, particularly - inverse problems for the determination of tsunami source parameters, numerical simulation of long wave propagation in soil and water and tsunami risk estimations. In addition, we will touch upon the issue of database management and destruction scenario visualization. New approaches and strategies, as well as mathematical tools and software are to be shown. The long joint investigations by researchers of the Institute of Mathematical Geophysics and Computational Mathematics SB RAS and specialists from WAPMERR and Informap have produced special theoretical approaches, numerical methods, and software tsunami and earthquake modeling (modeling of propagation and run-up of tsunami waves on coastal areas), visualization, risk estimation of tsunami, and earthquakes. Algorithms are developed for the operational definition of the origin and forms of the tsunami source. The system TSS numerically simulates the source of tsunami and/or earthquakes and includes the possibility to solve the direct and the inverse problem. It becomes possible to involve advanced mathematical results to improve models and to increase the resolution of inverse problems. Via TSS one can construct maps of risks, the online scenario of disasters, estimation of potential damage to buildings and roads. One of the main tools for the numerical modeling is the finite volume method (FVM), which allows us to achieve stability with respect to possible input errors, as well as to achieve optimum computing speed. Our approach to the inverse problem of tsunami and earthquake determination is based on recent theoretical results concerning the Dirichlet problem for the wave equation. This problem is intrinsically ill-posed. We use the optimization approach to solve this problem and SVD-analysis to estimate the degree of ill-posedness and to find the quasi-solution. The software system we developed is intended to create technology «no frost», realizing a steady stream of direct and inverse problems: solving the direct problem, the visualization and comparison with observed data, to solve the inverse problem (correction of the model parameters). The main objective of further work is the creation of a workstation operating emergency tool that could be used by an emergency duty person in real time.

Assessment of Efficiency and Performance in Tsunami Numerical Modeling with GPU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalciner, Bora; Zaytsev, Andrey

2017-04-01

Non-linear shallow water equations (NSWE) are used to solve the propagation and coastal amplification of long waves and tsunamis. Leap Frog scheme of finite difference technique is one of the satisfactory numerical methods which is widely used in these problems. Tsunami numerical models are necessary for not only academic but also operational purposes which need faster and accurate solutions. Recent developments in information technology provide considerably faster numerical solutions in this respect and are becoming one of the crucial requirements. Tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE uses finite difference numerical method to solve linear and non-linear forms of shallow water equations for long wave problems, specifically for tsunamis. In this study, the new code is structured for Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) using CUDA API. The new code is applied to different (analytical, experimental and field) benchmark problems of tsunamis for tests. One of those applications is 2011 Great East Japan tsunami which was instrumentally recorded on various types of gauges including tide and wave gauges and offshore GPS buoys cabled Ocean Bottom Pressure (OBP) gauges and DART buoys. The accuracy of the results are compared with the measurements and fairly well agreements are obtained. The efficiency and performance of the code is also compared with the version using multi-core Central Processing Unit (CPU). Dependence of simulation speed with GPU on linear or non-linear solutions is also investigated. One of the results is that the simulation speed is increased up to 75 times comparing to the process time in the computer using single 4/8 thread multi-core CPU. The results are presented with comparisons and discussions. Furthermore how multi-dimensional finite difference problems fits towards GPU architecture is also discussed. The research leading to this study has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No: 603839 (Project ASTARTE-Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). PARI, Japan and NOAA, USA are acknowledged for the data of the measurements. Prof. Ahmet C. Yalciner is also acknowledged for his long term and sustained support to the authors.

Preliminary numerical simulations of the 27 February 2010 Chile tsunami: first results and hints in a tsunami early warning perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.; Armigliato, A.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Gallazzi, Sara; Bressan, Lidia

2010-05-01

The tsunamigenic earthquake (M 8.8) that occurred offshore central Chile on 27 February 2010 can be classified as a typical subduction-zone earthquake. The effects of the ensuing tsunami have been devastating along the Chile coasts, and especially between the cities of Valparaiso and Talcahuano, and in the Juan Fernandez islands. The tsunami propagated across the entire Pacific Ocean, hitting with variable intensity almost all the coasts facing the basin. While the far-field propagation was quite well tracked almost in real-time by the warning centres and reasonably well reproduced by the forecast models, the toll of lives and the severity of the damage caused by the tsunami in the near-field occurred with no local alert nor warning and sadly confirms that the protection of the communities placed close to the tsunami sources is still an unresolved problem in the tsunami early warning field. The purpose of this study is two-fold. On one side we perform numerical simulations of the tsunami starting from different earthquake models which we built on the basis of the preliminary seismic parameters (location, magnitude and focal mechanism) made available by the seismological agencies immediately after the event, or retrieved from more detailed and refined studies published online in the following days and weeks. The comparison with the available records of both offshore DART buoys and coastal tide-gauges is used to put some preliminary constraints on the best-fitting fault model. The numerical simulations are performed by means of the finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna, Italy, which can solve both the linear and non-linear versions of the shallow-water equations on nested grids. The second purpose of this study is to use the conclusions drawn in the previous part in a tsunami early warning perspective. In the framework of the EU-funded project DEWS (Distant Early Warning System), we will try to give some clues for discussion on the deficiencies of the existing tsunami early warning concepts as regards the warning to the areas which are found close to the tsunami source, and on the strategies that should be followed in the near future in order to make significant progress in the protection and safeguarding of local communities.

Evaluation and Numerical Simulation of Tsunami for Coastal Nuclear Power Plants of India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharma, Pavan K.; Singh, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

2006-07-01

Recent tsunami generated on December 26, 2004 due to Sumatra earthquake of magnitude 9.3 resulted in inundation at the various coastal sites of India. The site selection and design of Indian nuclear power plants demand the evaluation of run up and the structural barriers for the coastal plants: Besides it is also desirable to evaluate the early warning system for tsunami-genic earthquakes. The tsunamis originate from submarine faults, underwater volcanic activities, sub-aerial landslides impinging on the sea and submarine landslides. In case of a submarine earthquake-induced tsunami the wave is generated in the fluid domain due to displacement of themore » seabed. There are three phases of tsunami: generation, propagation, and run-up. Reactor Safety Division (RSD) of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Trombay has initiated computational simulation for all the three phases of tsunami source generation, its propagation and finally run up evaluation for the protection of public life, property and various industrial infrastructures located on the coastal regions of India. These studies could be effectively utilized for design and implementation of early warning system for coastal region of the country apart from catering to the needs of Indian nuclear installations. This paper presents some results of tsunami waves based on different analytical/numerical approaches with shallow water wave theory. (authors)« less

A shallow water model for the propagation of tsunami via Lattice Boltzmann method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zergani, Sara; Aziz, Z. A.; Viswanathan, K. K.

2015-01-01

An efficient implementation of the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) for the numerical simulation of the propagation of long ocean waves (e.g. tsunami), based on the nonlinear shallow water (NSW) wave equation is presented. The LBM is an alternative numerical procedure for the description of incompressible hydrodynamics and has the potential to serve as an efficient solver for incompressible flows in complex geometries. This work proposes the NSW equations for the irrotational surface waves in the case of complex bottom elevation. In recent time, equation involving shallow water is the current norm in modelling tsunami operations which include the propagation zone estimation. Several test-cases are presented to verify our model. Some implications to tsunami wave modelling are also discussed. Numerical results are found to be in excellent agreement with theory.

Comparison between Observed Tsunami Heights and Numerical Simulation of the 1854 Ansei-Tokai Earthquake Tsunami in Gokasho Bay, central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naruhashi, R.; Satake, K.; Heidarzadeh, M.; Harada, T.

2014-12-01

　Gokasho Bay is a blockade inner bay which has typical ria coasts and drowned valleys. It is located in the central Kii Peninsula and faces the Nankai Trough subduction zone. This Kumano-nada coastal area has been repeatedly striked by historical great tsunamis. For the 1854 Ansei-Tokai earthquake and its tsunami, there are comparatively many historical records including historical documents and oral traditions for tsunami behavior and damages along the coast.　Based on these records, a total of 42 tsunami heights were measured by using a laser range finder and a hand level on the basis of spot elevation given by 1/2500 topographical maps. The average inundation height of whole bay area was approximately 4 - 5 m. On the whole, in the closed-off section of the bay, large values were obtained. For example, the average value in Gokasho-ura town area was 4 m, and the maximum run-up height along the Gokasho river was 6.8 m. Particularly in Konsa, located in the most closed-off section of the bay, tsunami heights ranged between 4 - 11 m, and were higher than those in other districts. It was comparatively high along the eastern coast and eastern baymouth.　We simulate the distribution of the tsunami wave heights using numerical modeling, and compare the simulation results and above-mentioned actual historical data and results of our field survey. Based on fault models by Ando (1975), Aida (1981), and Annaka et al. (2003), the tsunami simulation was performed.　After comparing the calculated results by three fault models, the wave height based on the model by Annaka et al. (2003) was found to have better agreement with observations. Moreover, the wave height values in a closed-off section of bay and at the eastern baymouth are high consistent with our survey data.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2018-04-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2017-11-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Improvement of effectiveness of existing Casuarina equisetifolia forests in mitigating tsunami damage.

PubMed

Samarakoon, M B; Tanaka, Norio; Iimura, Kosuke

2013-01-15

Coastal vegetation can play a significant role in reducing the severity of a tsunami because the energy associated with the tsunami is dissipated when it passes through coastal vegetation. Field surveys were conducted on the eastern coastline of Sri Lanka to investigate which vegetation species are effective against a tsunami and to evaluate the effectiveness of existing Casuarina equisetifolia forests in tsunami mitigation. Open gaps in C. equisetifolia forests were identified as a disadvantage, and introduction of a new vegetation belt in front or back of the existing C. equisetifolia forest is proposed to reduce the disadvantages of the open gap. Among the many plant species encountered during the field survey, ten species were selected as effective for tsunami disaster mitigation. The selection of appropriate vegetation for the front or back vegetation layer was based on the vegetation thickness per unit area (dN(u)) and breaking moment of each species. A numerical model based on two-dimensional nonlinear long-wave equations was applied to explain the present situation of open gaps in C. equisetifolia forests, and to evaluate the effectiveness of combined vegetation systems. The results of the numerical simulation for existing conditions of C. equisetifolia forests revealed that the tsunami force ratio (R = tsunami force with vegetation/tsunami force without vegetation) was 1.4 at the gap exit. The species selected for the front and back vegetation layers were Pandanus odoratissimus and Manilkara hexandra, respectively. A numerical simulation of the modified system revealed that R was reduced to 0.7 in the combined P. odoratissimus and C. equisetifolia system. However, the combination of C. equisetifolia and M. hexandra did not effectively reduce R at the gap exit. Therefore, P. odoratissimus as the front vegetation layer is proposed to reduce the disadvantages of the open gaps in existing C. equisetifolia forests. The optimal width of P. odoratissimus (W(1)) calculated from the numerical simulation was W(1) = 10 m. R at the exit of a 15-m-wide open gap was 0.8, and therefore the proposed system was appropriate for cases with the highest velocity at the gap exit as well. Establishment of a new front vegetation layer except for open gaps that are essential, such as access roads to the beach, is proposed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A computationally fast, reduced model for simulating landslide dynamics and tsunamis generated by landslides in natural terrains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, F.

2016-12-01

Landslide hazards such as fast-moving debris flows, slow-moving landslides, and other mass flows cause numerous fatalities, injuries, and damage. Landslide occurrences in fjords, bays, and lakes can additionally generate tsunamis with locally extremely high wave heights and runups. Two-dimensional depth-averaged models can successfully simulate the entire lifecycle of the three-dimensional landslide dynamics and tsunami propagation efficiently and accurately with the appropriate assumptions. Landslide rheology is defined using viscous fluids, visco-plastic fluids, and granular material to account for the possible landslide source materials. Saturated and unsaturated rheologies are further included to simulate debris flow, debris avalanches, mudflows, and rockslides respectively. The models are obtained by reducing the fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with the internal rheological definition of the landslide material, the water body, and appropriate scaling assumptions to obtain the depth-averaged two-dimensional models. The landslide and tsunami models are coupled to include the interaction between the landslide and the water body for tsunami generation. The reduced models are solved numerically with a fast semi-implicit finite-volume, shock-capturing based algorithm. The well-balanced, positivity preserving algorithm accurately accounts for wet-dry interface transition for the landslide runout, landslide-water body interface, and the tsunami wave flooding on land. The models are implemented as a General-Purpose computing on Graphics Processing Unit-based (GPGPU) suite of models, either coupled or run independently within the suite. The GPGPU implementation provides up to 1000 times speedup over a CPU-based serial computation. This enables simulations of multiple scenarios of hazard realizations that provides a basis for a probabilistic hazard assessment. The models have been successfully validated against experiments, past studies, and field data for landslides and tsunamis.

Tsunami Numerical Simulation for Hypothetical Giant or Great Earthquakes along the Izu-Bonin Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harada, T.; Ishibashi, K.; Satake, K.

2013-12-01

We performed tsunami numerical simulations from various giant/great fault models along the Izu-Bonin trench in order to see the behavior of tsunamis originated in this region and to examine the recurrence pattern of great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough off southwest Japan. As a result, large tsunami heights are expected in the Ryukyu Islands and on the Pacific coasts of Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu. The computed large tsunami heights support the hypothesis that the 1605 Keicho Nankai earthquake was not a tsunami earthquake along the Nankai trough but a giant or great earthquake along the Izu-Bonin trench (Ishibashi and Harada, 2013, SSJ Fall Meeting abstract). The Izu-Bonin subduction zone has been regarded as so-called 'Mariana-type subduction zone' where M>7 interplate earthquakes do not occur inherently. However, since several M>7 outer-rise earthquakes have occurred in this region and the largest slip of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) took place on the shallow plate interface where the strain accumulation had considered to be a little, a possibility of M>8.5 earthquakes in this region may not be negligible. The latest M 7.4 outer-rise earthquake off the Bonin Islands on Dec. 22, 2010 produced small tsunamis on the Pacific coast of Japan except for the Tohoku and Hokkaido districts and a zone of abnormal seismic intensity in the Kanto and Tohoku districts. Ishibashi and Harada (2013) proposed a working hypothesis that the 1605 Keicho earthquake which is considered a great tsunami earthquake along the Nankai trough was a giant/great earthquake along the Izu-Bonin trench based on the similarity of the distributions of ground shaking and tsunami of this event and the 2010 Bonin earthquake. In this study, in order to examine the behavior of tsunamis from giant/great earthquakes along the Izu-Bonin trench and check the Ishibashi and Harada's hypothesis, we performed tsunami numerical simulations from fault models along the Izu-Bonin trench. Tsunami propagation was computed by the finite-difference method of the non-liner long-wave equations with Corioli's force (Satake, 1995, PAGEOPH) in the area of 130 - 145°E and 25 - 37°N. The 15-seconds gridded bathymetry data are used. The tsunami propagations for eight hours since the faulting of the various fault models were computed. As a result, large tsunamis from assumed giant/great both interplate and outer-rise earthquakes reach the Ryukyu Islands' coasts and the Pacific coasts of Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu west of Kanto. Therefore, the tsunami simulations support the Ishibashi and Harada's hypothesis. At the time of writing, the best yet preliminary model to reproduce the 1605 tsunami heights is an outer-rise steep fault model which extends 26.5 - 29.0°N (300 km of length) and with 16.7 m of average slip (Mw 8.6). We will examine tsunami behavior in the Pacific Ocean from this fault model. To examine our results, field investigations of tsunami deposits in the Bonin Islands and discussions on plate dynamics and seismogenic characteristics along the Izu-Bonin trench are necessary.

Mathematics of tsunami: modelling and identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivorotko, Olga; Kabanikhin, Sergey

2015-04-01

Tsunami (long waves in the deep water) motion caused by underwater earthquakes is described by shallow water equations ( { ηtt = div (gH (x,y)-gradη), (x,y) ∈ Ω, t ∈ (0,T ); η|t=0 = q(x,y), ηt|t=0 = 0, (x,y) ∈ Ω. ( (1) Bottom relief H(x,y) characteristics and the initial perturbation data (a tsunami source q(x,y)) are required for the direct simulation of tsunamis. The main difficulty problem of tsunami modelling is a very big size of the computational domain (Ω = 500 × 1000 kilometres in space and about one hour computational time T for one meter of initial perturbation amplitude max|q|). The calculation of the function η(x,y,t) of three variables in Ω × (0,T) requires large computing resources. We construct a new algorithm to solve numerically the problem of determining the moving tsunami wave height S(x,y) which is based on kinematic-type approach and analytical representation of fundamental solution. Proposed algorithm of determining the function of two variables S(x,y) reduces the number of operations in 1.5 times than solving problem (1). If all functions does not depend on the variable y (one dimensional case), then the moving tsunami wave height satisfies of the well-known Airy-Green formula: S(x) = S(0)° --- 4H (0)/H (x). The problem of identification parameters of a tsunami source using additional measurements of a passing wave is called inverse tsunami problem. We investigate two different inverse problems of determining a tsunami source q(x,y) using two different additional data: Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) measurements and satellite altimeters wave-form images. These problems are severely ill-posed. The main idea consists of combination of two measured data to reconstruct the source parameters. We apply regularization techniques to control the degree of ill-posedness such as Fourier expansion, truncated singular value decomposition, numerical regularization. The algorithm of selecting the truncated number of singular values of an inverse problem operator which is agreed with the error level in measured data is described and analysed. In numerical experiment we used conjugate gradient method for solving inverse tsunami problems. Gradient methods are based on minimizing the corresponding misfit function. To calculate the gradient of the misfit function, the adjoint problem is solved. The conservative finite-difference schemes for solving the direct and adjoint problems in the approximation of shallow water are constructed. Results of numerical experiments of the tsunami source reconstruction are presented and discussed. We show that using a combination of two types of data allows one to increase the stability and efficiency of tsunami source reconstruction. Non-profit organization WAPMERR (World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction) in collaboration with Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics of SB RAS developed the Integrated Tsunami Research and Information System (ITRIS) to simulate tsunami waves and earthquakes, river course changes, coastal zone floods, and risk estimates for coastal constructions at wave run-ups and earthquakes. The special scientific plug-in components are embedded in a specially developed GIS-type graphic shell for easy data retrieval, visualization and processing. We demonstrate the tsunami simulation plug-in for historical tsunami events (2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Simushir tsunami 2006 and others). This work was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation.

Real-time correction of tsunami site effect by frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsushima, H.

2017-12-01

For tsunami early warning, I developed frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor and used it to design a recursive digital filter that can be applicable for real-time correction of tsunami site response. In this study, I assumed that a tsunami waveform at an observing point could be modeled by convolution of source, path and site effects in time domain. Under this assumption, spectral ratio between offshore and the nearby coast can be regarded as site response (i.e. frequency-dependent amplification factor). If the amplification factor can be prepared before tsunamigenic earthquakes, its temporal convolution to offshore tsunami waveform provides tsunami prediction at coast in real time. In this study, tsunami waveforms calculated by tsunami numerical simulations were used to develop frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor. Firstly, I performed numerical tsunami simulations based on nonlinear shallow-water theory from many tsuanmigenic earthquake scenarios by varying the seismic magnitudes and locations. The resultant tsunami waveforms at offshore and the nearby coastal observing points were then used in spectral-ratio analysis. An average of the resulted spectral ratios from the tsunamigenic-earthquake scenarios is regarded as frequency-dependent amplification factor. Finally, the estimated amplification factor is used in design of a recursive digital filter that can be applicable in time domain. The above procedure is applied to Miyako bay at the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. The averaged tsunami-height spectral ratio (i.e. amplification factor) between the location at the center of the bay and the outside show a peak at wave-period of 20 min. A recursive digital filter based on the estimated amplification factor shows good performance in real-time correction of tsunami-height amplification due to the site effect. This study is supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI grant 15K16309.

Modelling tsunami inundation for risk analysis at the Andaman Sea Coast of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, G.; Kortenhaus, A.

2009-04-01

The mega-tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004 strongly impacted the Andaman Sea coast of Thailand and devastated coastal ecosystems as well as towns, settlements and tourism resorts. In addition to the tragic loss of many lives, the destruction or damage of life-supporting infrastructure, such as buildings, roads, water & power supply etc. caused high economic losses in the region. To mitigate future tsunami impacts there is a need to assess the tsunami hazard and vulnerability in flood prone areas at the Andaman Sea coast in order to determine the spatial distribution of risk and to develop risk management strategies. In the bilateral German-Thai project TRAIT research is performed on integrated risk assessment for the Provinces Phang Nga and Phuket in southern Thailand, including a hazard analysis, i.e. modelling tsunami propagation to the coast, tsunami wave breaking and inundation characteristics, as well as vulnerability analysis of the socio-economic and the ecological system in order to determine the scenario-based, specific risk for the region. In this presentation results of the hazard analysis and the inundation simulation are presented and discussed. Numerical modelling of tsunami propagation and inundation simulation is an inevitable tool for risk analysis, risk management and evacuation planning. While numerous investigations have been made to model tsunami wave generation and propagation in the Indian Ocean, there is still a lack in determining detailed inundation patterns, i.e. water depth and flow dynamics. However, for risk management and evacuation planning this knowledge is essential. As the accuracy of the inundation simulation is strongly depending on the available bathymetric and the topographic data, a multi-scale approach is chosen in this work. The ETOPO Global Relief Model as a bathymetric basis and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM90) have been widely applied in tsunami modelling approaches as these data are free and almost world-wide available. However, to model tsunami-induced inundation for risk analysis and management purposes the accuracy of these data is not sufficient as the processes in the near-shore zone cannot be modelled accurately enough and the spatial resolution of the topography is weak. Moreover, the SRTM data provide a digital surface model which includes vegetation and buildings in the surface description. To improve the data basis additional bathymetric data were used in the near shore zone of the Phang Nga and Phuket coastlines and various remote sensing techniques as well as additional GPS measurements were applied to derive a high resolution topography from satellite and airborne data. Land use classifications and filter methods were developed to correct the digital surface models to digital elevation models. Simulations were then performed with a non-linear shallow water model to model the 2004 Asian Tsunami and to simulate possible future ones. Results of water elevation near the coast were compared with field measurements and observations, and the influence of the resolution of the topography on inundation patterns like water depth, velocity, dispersion and duration of the flood were analysed. The inundation simulation provides detailed hazard maps and is considered a reliable basis for risk assessment and risk zone mapping. Results are regarded vital for estimation of tsunami induced damages and evacuation planning. Results of the aforementioned simulations will be discussed during the conference. Differences of the numerical results using topographic data of different scales and modified by different post processing techniques will be analysed and explained. Further use of the results with respect to tsunami risk analysis and management will also be demonstrated.

Validation and Performance Comparison of Numerical Codes for Tsunami Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velioglu, D.; Kian, R.; Yalciner, A. C.; Zaytsev, A.

2015-12-01

In inundation zones, tsunami motion turns from wave motion to flow of water. Modelling of this phenomenon is a complex problem since there are many parameters affecting the tsunami flow. In this respect, the performance of numerical codes that analyze tsunami inundation patterns becomes important. The computation of water surface elevation is not sufficient for proper analysis of tsunami behaviour in shallow water zones and on land and hence for the development of mitigation strategies. Velocity and velocity patterns are also crucial parameters and have to be computed at the highest accuracy. There are numerous numerical codes to be used for simulating tsunami inundation. In this study, FLOW 3D and NAMI DANCE codes are selected for validation and performance comparison. Flow 3D simulates linear and nonlinear propagating surface waves as well as long waves by solving three-dimensional Navier-Stokes (3D-NS) equations. FLOW 3D is used specificaly for flood problems. NAMI DANCE uses finite difference computational method to solve linear and nonlinear forms of shallow water equations (NSWE) in long wave problems, specifically tsunamis. In this study, these codes are validated and their performances are compared using two benchmark problems which are discussed in 2015 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Annual meeting in Portland, USA. One of the problems is an experiment of a single long-period wave propagating up a piecewise linear slope and onto a small-scale model of the town of Seaside, Oregon. Other benchmark problem is an experiment of a single solitary wave propagating up a triangular shaped shelf with an island feature located at the offshore point of the shelf. The computed water surface elevation and velocity data are compared with the measured data. The comparisons showed that both codes are in fairly good agreement with each other and benchmark data. All results are presented with discussions and comparisons. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)

Comparison of the seafloor displacement from uniform and non-uniform slip models on tsunami simulation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulutas, Ergin

2013-01-01

The numerical simulations of recent tsunami caused by 11 March 2011 off-shore Pacific coast of Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.0) using diverse co-seismic source models have been performed. Co-seismic source models proposed by various observational agencies and scholars are further used to elucidate the effects of uniform and non-uniform slip models on tsunami generation and propagation stages. Non-linear shallow water equations are solved with a finite difference scheme, using a computational grid with different cell sizes over GEBCO30 bathymetry data. Overall results obtained and reported by various tsunami simulation models are compared together with the available real-time kinematic global positioning system (RTK-GPS) buoys, cabled deep ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPG), and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoys. The purpose of this study is to provide a brief overview of major differences between point-source and finite-fault methodologies on generation and simulation of tsunamis. Tests of the assumptions of uniform and non-uniform slip models designate that the average uniform slip models may be used for the tsunami simulations off-shore, and far from the source region. Nevertheless, the heterogeneities of the slip distribution within the fault plane are substantial for the wave amplitude in the near field which should be investigated further.

Applications of acoustic-gravity waves numerical modeling to tsunami signals observed by gravimetry satellites in very low orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brissaud, Q.; Garcia, R.; Sladen, A.; Martin, R.; Komatitsch, D.

2016-12-01

Acoustic and gravity waves propagating in planetary atmospheres have been studied intensively as markers of specific phenomena (tectonic events, explosions) or as contributors to atmosphere dynamics. To get a better understanding of the physics behind these dynamic processes, both acoustic and gravity waves propagation should be modeled in an attenuating and windy 3D atmosphere from the ground all the way to the upper thermosphere. Thus, in order to provide an efficient numerical tool at the regional or global scale we introduce a high-order finite-difference time domain (FDTD) approach that relies on the linearized compressible Navier-Stokes equations with spatially non constant physical parameters (density, viscosities and speed of sound) and background velocities (wind). We present applications of these simulations to the propagation of gravity waves generated by tsunamis for realistic cases for which atmospheric models are extracted from empirical models including variations with altitude of atmospheric parameters, and tsunami forcing at the ocean surface is extracted from shallow water simulations. We describe the specific difficulties induced by the size of the simulation, the boundary conditions and the spherical geometry and compare the simulation outputs to data gathered by gravimetric satellites crossing gravity waves generated by tsunamis.

Marshall Islands Fringing Reef and Atoll Lagoon Observations of the Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Murray; Becker, Janet M.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Song, Y. Tony

2014-12-01

The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011 generated a tsunami which caused significant impacts throughout the Pacific Ocean. A description of the tsunami within the lagoons and on the surrounding fringing reefs of two mid-ocean atoll islands is presented using bottom pressure observations from the Majuro and Kwajalein atolls in the Marshall Islands, supplemented by tide gauge data in the lagoons and by numerical model simulations in the deep ocean. Although the initial wave arrival was not captured by the pressure sensors, subsequent oscillations on the reef face resemble the deep ocean tsunami signal simulated by two numerical models, suggesting that the tsunami amplitudes over the atoll outer reefs are similar to that in deep water. In contrast, tsunami oscillations in the lagoon are more energetic and long lasting than observed on the reefs or modelled in the deep ocean. The tsunami energy in the Majuro lagoon exhibits persistent peaks in the 30 and 60 min period bands that suggest the excitation of closed and open basin normal modes, while energy in the Kwajalein lagoon spans a broader range of frequencies with weaker, multiple peaks than observed at Majuro, which may be associated with the tsunami behavior within the more irregular geometry of the Kwajalein lagoon. The propagation of the tsunami across the reef flats is shown to be tidally dependent, with amplitudes increasing/decreasing shoreward at high/low tide. The impact of the tsunami on the Marshall Islands was reduced due to the coincidence of peak wave amplitudes with low tide; however, the observed wave amplitudes, particularly in the atoll lagoon, would have led to inundation at different tidal phases.

Field Survey in French Polynesia and Numerical Modeling of the 11 March 2011 Japan Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyvernaud, O.; Reymond, D.; Okal, E.; Hebert, H.; Clément, J.; Wong, K.

2011-12-01

We present the field survey and observations of the Japan tsunami of March 2011, in Society and Marquesas islands. Without being catastrophic the tsunami produced some damages in the Marquesas, which are always the most prone to tsunami amplification in French Polynesia: 8 houses were destroyed and inundated (up to 4.5 m of run-up measured). Surprisingly, the maximum run-up was observed on the South-West coast of Nuku Hiva island (a bay open to the opposite direction of the wave-front). In Tahiti, the tsunami was much more moderate, with a maximum height observed on the North coast: about 3 m of run-up observed, corresponding to the highest level of the seasonal oceanic swell without damage (just the main road inundated). These observations are well explained and reproduced by the numerical modeling of the tsunami. The results obtained confirm the exceptional source dimensions. Concerning the real time aspect, the tsunami height has been also rapidly predicted during the context of tsunami warning, with 2 methods: the first uses a database of pre-computed numeric simulations, and the second one uses a formula giving the tsunami amplitude in deep ocean in function of the source parameters (coordinates of the source, scalar moment and fault azimuth) and of the coordinates of the receiver. The population responded responsibly to the evacuation order on the 19 islands involved, helped in part by a favourable arrival time of the wave (7:30 a.m., local time).

Numerical tsunami simulations in the western Pacific Ocean and East China Sea from hypothetical M 9 earthquakes along the Nankai trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harada, Tomoya; Satake, Kenji; Furumura, Takashi

2017-04-01

We carried out tsunami numerical simulations in the western Pacific Ocean and East China Sea in order to examine the behavior of massive tsunami outside Japan from the hypothetical M 9 tsunami source models along the Nankai Trough proposed by the Cabinet Office of Japanese government (2012). The distribution of MTHs (maximum tsunami heights for 24 h after the earthquakes) on the east coast of China, the east coast of the Philippine Islands, and north coast of the New Guinea Island show peaks with approximately 1.0-1.7 m，4.0-7.0 m，4.0-5.0 m, respectively. They are significantly higher than that from the 1707 Ho'ei earthquake (M 8.7), the largest earthquake along the Nankai trough in recent Japanese history. Moreover, the MTH distributions vary with the location of the huge slip(s) in the tsunami source models although the three coasts are far from the Nankai trough. Huge slip(s) in the Nankai segment mainly contributes to the MTHs, while huge slip(s) or splay faulting in the Tokai segment hardly affects the MTHs. The tsunami source model was developed for responding to the unexpected occurrence of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, with 11 models along the Nanakai trough, and simulated MTHs along the Pacific coasts of the western Japan from these models exceed 10 m, with a maximum height of 34.4 m. Tsunami propagation was computed by the finite-difference method of the non-liner long-wave equations with the Corioli's force and bottom friction (Satake, 1995) in the area of 115-155 ° E and 8° S-40° N. Because water depth of the East China Sea is shallower than 200 m, the tsunami propagation is likely to be affected by the ocean bottom fiction. The 30 arc-seconds gridded bathymetry data provided by the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO-2014) are used. For long propagation of tsunami we simulated tsunamis for 24 hours after the earthquakes. This study was supported by the"New disaster mitigation research project on Mega thrust earthquakes around Nankai/Ryukyu subduction zones", a project of Japan's Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT).

An advanced three-phase physical, experimental and numerical method for tsunami induced boulder transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oetjen, Jan; Engel, Max; Prasad Pudasaini, Shiva; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Brückner, Helmut

2017-04-01

Coasts around the world are affected by high-energy wave events like storm surges or tsunamis depending on their regional climatological and geological settings. By focusing on tsunami impacts, we combine the abilities and experiences of different scientific fields aiming at improved insights of near- and onshore tsunami hydrodynamics. We investigate the transport of coarse clasts - so called boulders - due to tsunami impacts by a multi-methodology approach of numerical modelling, laboratory experiments, and sedimentary field records. Coupled numerical hydrodynamic and boulder transport models (BTM) are widely applied for analysing the impact characteristics of the transport by tsunami, such as wave height and flow velocity. Numerical models able to simulate past tsunami events and the corresponding boulder transport patterns with high accuracy and acceptable computational effort can be utilized as powerful forecasting models predicting the impact of a coast approaching tsunami. We have conducted small-scale physical experiments in the tilting flume with real shaped boulder models. Utilizing the structure from motion technique (Westoby et al., 2012) we reconstructed real boulders from a field study on the Island of Bonaire (Lesser Antilles, Caribbean Sea, Engel & May, 2012). The obtained three-dimensional boulder meshes are utilized for creating downscaled replica of the real boulder for physical experiments. The results of the irregular shaped boulder are compared to experiments with regular shaped boulder models to achieve a better insight about the shape related influence on transport patterns. The numerical model is based on the general two-phase mass flow model by Pudasaini (2012) enhanced for boulder transport simulations. The boulder is implemented using the immersed boundary technique (Peskin, 2002) and the direct forcing approach. In this method Cartesian grids (fluid and particle phase) and Lagrangian meshes (boulder) are combined. By applying the immersed boundary method we can compute the interactions between fluid, particles and arbitrary boulder shape. We are able to reproduce the exact physical experiment for calibration and verification of the tsunami boulder transport phenomena. First results of the study will be presented. Engel, M.; May, S.M.: Bonaire's boulder fields revisited: evidence for Holocene tsunami impact on the Leeward, Antilles. Quaternary Science Reviews 54, 126-141, 2012. Peskin, C.S.: The immersed boundary method. Acta Numerica, 479 - 517, 2002. Pudasaini, S. P.: A general two-phase debris flow model. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 117, F03010, 2012. Westoby, M.J.; Brasington, J.; Glasser, N.F.; Hambrey, M.J.; Reynolds, J.M.: 'Structure-from-Motion' photogrammetry - a low-cost, effective tool for geoscience applications. Geomorphology 179, 300-314, 2012.

Detiding Tsunami Currents to Validate Velocities in Numerical Simulation Codes using Observations Near Hawaii from the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, L. M.; LeVeque, R. J.

2015-12-01

The ability to measure, predict, and compute tsunami flow velocities is ofimportance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Until recently, fewdirect measurements of tsunami velocities existed to compare with modelresults. During the 11 March 2001 Tohoku Tsunami, 328 current meters werewere in place around the Hawaiian Islands, USA, that captured time seriesof water velocity in 18 locations, in both harbors and deep channels, ata series of depths. Arcos and LeVeque[1] compared these records againstnumerical simulations performed using the GeoClaw numerical tsunami modelwhich is based on the depth-averaged shallow water equations. They confirmedthat GeoClaw can accurately predict velocities at nearshore locations, andthat tsunami current velocity is more spatially variable than wave formor height and potentially more sensitive for model validation.We present a new approach to detiding this sensitive current data. Thisapproach can be used separately on data at each depth of a current gauge.When averaged across depths, the Geoclaw results in [1] are validated. Withoutaveraging, the results should be useful to researchers wishing to validate their3D codes. These results can be downloaded from the project website below.The approach decomposes the pre-tsunami component of the data into three parts:a tidal component, a fast component (noise), and a slow component (not matchedby the harmonic analysis). Each part is extended to the time when the tsunamiis present and subtracted from the current data then to give the ''tsunami current''that can be compared with 2D or 3D codes that do not model currents in thepre-tsunami regime. [1] "Validating Velocities in the GeoClaw Tsunami Model using Observations NearHawaii from the 2001 Tohoku Tsunami"M.E.M. Arcos and Randall J. LeVequearXiv:1410.2884v1 [physics.geo-py], 10 Oct. 2014.project website: http://faculty.washington.edu/lma3/research.html

Assessment of a Tsunami Hazard for Mediterranean Coast of Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaytsev, Andrey; Babeyko, Andrey; Yalciner, Ahmet; Pelinovsky, Efim

2017-04-01

Analysis of tsunami hazard for Egypt based on historic data and numerical modelling of historic and prognostic events is given. There are 13 historic events for 4000 years, including one instrumental record (1956). Tsunami database includes 12 earthquake tsunamis and 1 event of volcanic origin (Santorini eruption). Tsunami intensity of events (365, 881, 1303, 1870) is estimated as I = 3 led to tsunami wave height more than 6 m. Numerical simulation of some possible scenario of tsunamis of seismic and landslide origin is done with use of NAMI-DANCE software solved the shallow-water equations. The PTHA method (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment - Probabilistic assessment of a tsunami hazard) for the Mediterranean Sea developed in (Sorensen M.B., Spada M., Babeyko A., Wiemer S., Grunthal G. Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea. J Geophysical Research, 2012, vol. 117, B01305) is used to evaluate the probability of tsunami occurrence on the Egyptian coast. The synthetic catalogue of prognostic tsunamis of seismic origin with magnitude more than 6.5 includes 84 920 events for 100000 years. For the wave heights more 1 m the curve: exceedance probability - tsunami height can be approximated by exponential Gumbel function with two parameters which are determined for each coastal location in Egypt (totally. 24 points). Prognostic extreme highest events with probability less 10-4 are not satisfied to the Gumbel function (approximately 10 events) and required the special analysis. Acknowledgements: This work was supported EU FP7 ASTARTE Project [603839], and for EP - NS6637.2016.5.

Sensitivity of the coastal tsunami simulation to the complexity of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, Angélique; Loevenbruck, Anne; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène

2016-04-01

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki event, whether earthquake or tsunami, is exceptionally well documented. A wide range of onshore and offshore data has been recorded from seismic, geodetic, ocean-bottom pressure and sea level sensors. Along with these numerous observations, advance in inversion technique and computing facilities have led to many source studies. Rupture parameters inversion such as slip distribution and rupture history permit to estimate the complex coseismic seafloor deformation. From the numerous published seismic source studies, the most relevant coseismic source models are tested. The comparison of the predicted signals generated using both static and cinematic ruptures to the offshore and coastal measurements help determine which source model should be used to obtain the more consistent coastal tsunami simulations. This work is funded by the TANDEM project, reference ANR-11-RSNR-0023-01 of the French Programme Investissements d'Avenir (PIA 2014-2018).

Coseismic slip on the southern Cascadia megathrust implied by tsunami deposits in an Oregon lake and earthquake-triggered marine turbidites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witter, Robert C.; Zhang, Yinglong; Wang, Kelin; Goldfinger, Chris; Priest, George R.; Allan, Jonathan C.

2012-10-01

We test hypothetical tsunami scenarios against a 4,600-year record of sandy deposits in a southern Oregon coastal lake that offer minimum inundation limits for prehistoric Cascadia tsunamis. Tsunami simulations constrain coseismic slip estimates for the southern Cascadia megathrust and contrast with slip deficits implied by earthquake recurrence intervals from turbidite paleoseismology. We model the tsunamigenic seafloor deformation using a three-dimensional elastic dislocation model and test three Cascadia earthquake rupture scenarios: slip partitioned to a splay fault; slip distributed symmetrically on the megathrust; and slip skewed seaward. Numerical tsunami simulations use the hydrodynamic finite element model, SELFE, that solves nonlinear shallow-water wave equations on unstructured grids. Our simulations of the 1700 Cascadia tsunami require >12-13 m of peak slip on the southern Cascadia megathrust offshore southern Oregon. The simulations account for tidal and shoreline variability and must crest the ˜6-m-high lake outlet to satisfy geological evidence of inundation. Accumulating this slip deficit requires ≥360-400 years at the plate convergence rate, exceeding the 330-year span of two earthquake cycles preceding 1700. Predecessors of the 1700 earthquake likely involved >8-9 m of coseismic slip accrued over >260 years. Simple slip budgets constrained by tsunami simulations allow an average of 5.2 m of slip per event for 11 additional earthquakes inferred from the southern Cascadia turbidite record. By comparison, slip deficits inferred from time intervals separating earthquake-triggered turbidites are poor predictors of coseismic slip because they meet geological constraints for only 4 out of 12 (˜33%) Cascadia tsunamis.

The global reach of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra tsunami.

PubMed

Titov, Vasily; Rabinovich, Alexander B; Mofjeld, Harold O; Thomson, Richard E; González, Frank I

2005-09-23

Numerical model simulations, combined with tide-gauge and satellite altimetry data, reveal that wave amplitudes, directionality, and global propagation patterns of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra tsunami were primarily determined by the orientation and intensity of the offshore seismic line source and subsequently by the trapping effect of mid-ocean ridge topographic waveguides.

Airburst-Generated Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Marsha; Goodman, Jonathan

2018-04-01

This paper examines the questions of whether smaller asteroids that burst in the air over water can generate tsunamis that could pose a threat to distant locations. Such airburst-generated tsunamis are qualitatively different than the more frequently studied earthquake-generated tsunamis, and differ as well from tsunamis generated by asteroids that strike the ocean. Numerical simulations are presented using the shallow water equations in several settings, demonstrating very little tsunami threat from this scenario. A model problem with an explicit solution that demonstrates and explains the same phenomena found in the computations is analyzed. We discuss the question of whether compressibility and dispersion are important effects that should be included, and show results from a more sophisticated model problem using the linearized Euler equations that begins to addresses this.

The effect of compliant prisms on subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotto, Gabriel C.; Dunham, Eric M.; Jeppson, Tamara N.; Tobin, Harold J.

2017-01-01

Earthquakes generate tsunamis by coseismically deforming the seafloor, and that deformation is largely controlled by the shallow rupture process. Therefore, in order to better understand how earthquakes generate tsunamis, one must consider the material structure and frictional properties of the shallowest part of the subduction zone, where ruptures often encounter compliant sedimentary prisms. Compliant prisms have been associated with enhanced shallow slip, seafloor deformation, and tsunami heights, particularly in the context of tsunami earthquakes. To rigorously quantify the role compliant prisms play in generating tsunamis, we perform a series of numerical simulations that directly couple dynamic rupture on a dipping thrust fault to the elastodynamic response of the Earth and the acoustic response of the ocean. Gravity is included in our simulations in the context of a linearized Eulerian description of the ocean, which allows us to model tsunami generation and propagation, including dispersion and related nonhydrostatic effects. Our simulations span a three-dimensional parameter space of prism size, prism compliance, and sub-prism friction - specifically, the rate-and-state parameter b - a that determines velocity-weakening or velocity-strengthening behavior. We find that compliant prisms generally slow rupture velocity and, for larger prisms, generate tsunamis more efficiently than subduction zones without prisms. In most but not all cases, larger, more compliant prisms cause greater amounts of shallow slip and larger tsunamis. Furthermore, shallow friction is also quite important in determining overall slip; increasing sub-prism b - a enhances slip everywhere along the fault. Counterintuitively, we find that in simulations with large prisms and velocity-strengthening friction at the base of the prism, increasing prism compliance reduces rather than enhances shallow slip and tsunami wave height.

Tsunami simulation method initiated from waveforms observed by ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami forecast; Applied for 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro

2017-04-01

After tsunami disaster due to the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake, improvement of the tsunami forecast has been an urgent issue in Japan. National Institute of Disaster Prevention is installing a cable network system of earthquake and tsunami observation (S-NET) at the ocean bottom along the Japan and Kurile trench. This cable system includes 125 pressure sensors (tsunami meters) which are separated by 30 km. Along the Nankai trough, JAMSTEC already installed and operated the cable network system of seismometers and pressure sensors (DONET and DONET2). Those systems are the most dense observation network systems on top of source areas of great underthrust earthquakes in the world. Real-time tsunami forecast has depended on estimation of earthquake parameters, such as epicenter, depth, and magnitude of earthquakes. Recently, tsunami forecast method has been developed using the estimation of tsunami source from tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensors. However, when we have many pressure sensors separated by 30km on top of the source area, we do not need to estimate the tsunami source or earthquake source to compute tsunami. Instead, we can initiate a tsunami simulation from those dense tsunami observed data. Observed tsunami height differences with a time interval at the ocean bottom pressure sensors separated by 30 km were used to estimate tsunami height distribution at a particular time. In our new method, tsunami numerical simulation was initiated from those estimated tsunami height distribution. In this paper, the above method is improved and applied for the tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake. Tsunami source model of the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake estimated using observed tsunami waveforms, coseimic deformation observed by GPS and ocean bottom sensors by Gusman et al. (2012) is used in this study. The ocean surface deformation is computed from the source model and used as an initial condition of tsunami simulation. By assuming that this computed tsunami is a real tsunami and observed at ocean bottom sensors, new tsunami simulation is carried out using the above method. The station distribution (each station is separated by 15 min., about 30 km) observed tsunami waveforms which were actually computed from the source model. Tsunami height distributions are estimated from the above method at 40, 80, and 120 seconds after the origin time of the earthquake. The Near-field Tsunami Inundation forecast method (Gusman et al. 2014) was used to estimate the tsunami inundation along the Sanriku coast. The result shows that the observed tsunami inundation was well explained by those estimated inundation. This also shows that it takes about 10 minutes to estimate the tsunami inundation from the origin time of the earthquake. This new method developed in this paper is very effective for a real-time tsunami forecast.

Estimation of the Characterized Tsunami Source Model considering the Complicated Shape of Tsunami Source by Using the observed waveforms of GPS Buoys in the Nankai Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, S.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

In the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami disaster, the delay of understanding damage situation increased the human damage. To solve this problem, it is important to search the severe damaged areas. The tsunami numerical modeling is useful to estimate damages and the accuracy of simulation depends on the tsunami source. Seto and Takahashi (2017) proposed a method to estimate the characterized tsunami source model by using the limited observed data of GPS buoys. The model consists of Large slip zone (LSZ), Super large slip zone (SLSZ) and background rupture zone (BZ) as the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (below COGJ) reported after the Tohoku tsunami. At the beginning of this method, the rectangular fault model is assumed based on the seismic magnitude and hypocenter reported right after an earthquake. By using the fault model, tsunami propagation is simulated numerically, and the fault model is improved after comparing the computed data with the observed data repeatedly. In the comparison, correlation coefficient and regression coefficient are used as indexes. They are calculated with the observed and the computed tsunami wave profiles. This repetition is conducted to get the two coefficients close to 1.0, which makes the precise of the fault model higher. However, it was indicated as the improvement that the model did not examine a complicated shape of tsunami source. In this study, we proposed an improved model to examine the complicated shape. COGJ(2012) assumed that possible tsunami source region in the Nankai trough consisted of the several thousands small faults. And, we use these small faults to estimate the targeted tsunami source in this model. Therefore, we can estimate the complicated tsunami source by using these small faults. The estimation of BZ is carried out as a first step, and LSZ and SLSZ are estimated next as same as the previous model. The proposed model by using GPS buoy was applied for a tsunami scenario in the Nankai Trough. As a result, the final estimated location of LSZ and SLSZ in BZ are estimated well.

Numerical Simulation of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: Accurate Flooding and drying in Banda Aceh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Haiyang; Pietrzak, Julie; Stelling, Guus; Androsov, Alexey; Harig, Sven

2010-05-01

The Indian Ocean Tsunami on December 26, 2004 caused one of the largest tsunamis in recent times and led to widespread devastation and loss of life. One of the worst hit regions was Banda Aceh, which is the capital of the Aceh province, located in the northern part of Sumatra, 150km from the source of the earthquake. A German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (www.gitews.de) is currently under active development. The work presented here is carried out within the GITEWS framework. One of the aims of this project is the development of accurate models with which to simulate the propagation, flooding and drying, and run-up of a tsunami. In this context, TsunAWI has been developed by the Alfred Wegener Institute; it is an explicit, () finite element model. However, the accurate numerical simulation of flooding and drying requires the conservation of mass and momentum. This is not possible in the current version of TsunAWi. The P1NC - P1element guarantees mass conservation in a global sense, yet as we show here it is important to guarantee mass conservation at the local level, that is within each individual cell. Here an unstructured grid, finite volume ocean model is presented. It is derived from the P1NC - P1 element, and is shown to be mass and momentum conserving. Then a number of simulations are presented, including dam break problems flooding over both a wet and a dry bed. Excellent agreement is found. Then we present simulations for Banda Aceh, and compare the results to on-site survey data, as well as to results from the original TsunAWI code.

Paleographical, Bathymetric and Numerical Investigations for a Tsunami Possibly Caused by Submarine Mass Failure in the Nankai Trough, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baba, T.; Ashi, J.; Kanamatsu, T.; Imai, K.; Yamashita, K.

2017-12-01

"SHINCHO-KI" is an ancient document that records tsunami damages caused by the 1512 Eisho earthquake, the 1605 Keicho earthquake, the 1707 Hoei earthquake and the 1854 Ansei-Nankai earthquake in Shishikui, where is located along the coast of the southeastern part of Shikoku, facing to the Nankai trough. According to SHINCHO-KI, 3700 people were dead in Shishikui by the tsunami during the 1512 Eisho earthquake. However, no evidence was found for the occurrence of the 1512 Eisho earthquake except for SHINCHO-KI, while the other earthquakes were recorded in many ancient documents in the southwestern Japan. To investigate the source mechanism of the 1512 Eisho earthquake, we carefully read a bathymetric chart and found a scarp with a height of about 400 m and a width of about 6000 m at a position about 24 km offshore in the southeastern direction from Shishikui. We also carried out a survey by using a deep-towed sub-bottom profiler (SBP) on ROV NSS during the R/V Hakuho-maru KH-16-5 cruise. The result shows detailed structures possibly caused by a recent landslide. The vertical displacement of the strata was measured to be about 50 m. By considering these results, we simulated the 1512 Eisho tsunami generated by a submarine mass failure. The topographic data in Shishikui which is needed in the calculation was made from the present data. But we removed the artificial structures such as wave breakers and altered coastlines by referring to old map images. In the numerical simulation, the initial sea surface deformation was obtained by the method proposed by Watts et al. (2005), and the tsunami propagation was calculated by solving the nonlinear shallow water equations with dispersive (Boussinesq) term on a finite difference scheme. We solved the advection terms by using the third-order upwind difference to avoid artificial viscosity. The numerical simulation estimated the maximum tsunami height of about 6m and moderate inundation on land in Shishikui by the 1512 Eisho tsunami.

Source Rupture Models and Tsunami Simulations of Destructive October 28, 2012 Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia (Mw: 7.8) and September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile (Mw: 8.3) Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taymaz, Tuncay; Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Ulutaş, Ergin

2016-04-01

The finite-fault source rupture models and numerical simulations of tsunami waves generated by 28 October 2012 Queen Charlotte Islands (Mw: 7.8), and 16 September 2015 Illapel-Chile (Mw: 8.3) earthquakes are presented. These subduction zone earthquakes have reverse faulting mechanisms with small amount of strike-slip components which clearly reflect the characteristics of convergence zones. The finite-fault slip models of the 2012 Queen Charlotte and 2015 Chile earthquakes are estimated from a back-projection method that uses teleseismic P- waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source. Non-uniform rupture models of the fault plane, which are obtained from the finite fault modeling, are used in order to describe the vertical displacement on seabed. In general, the vertical displacement of water surface was considered to be the same as ocean bottom displacement, and it is assumed to be responsible for the initial water surface deformation gives rise to occurrence of tsunami waves. In this study, it was calculated by using the elastic dislocation algorithm. The results of numerical tsunami simulations are compared with tide gauges and Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoy records. De-tiding, de-trending, low-pass and high-pass filters were applied to detect tsunami waves in deep ocean sensors and tide gauge records. As an example, the observed records and results of simulations showed that the 2012 Queen Charlotte Islands earthquake generated about 1 meter tsunami-waves in Maui and Hilo (Hawaii), 5 hours and 30 minutes after the earthquake. Furthermore, the calculated amplitudes and time series of the tsunami waves of the recent 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake are exhibiting good agreement with the records of tide and DART gauges except at stations Valparaiso and Pichidangui (Chile). This project is supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK Project No: CAYDAG-114Y066).

Numerical study of dam-break induced tsunami-like bore with a hump of different slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Du; Zhao, Xi-zeng; Zhang, Da-ke; Chen, Yong

2017-12-01

Numerical simulation of dam-break wave, as an imitation of tsunami hydraulic bore, with a hump of different slopes is performed in this paper using an in-house code, named a Constrained Interpolation Profile (CIP)-based model. The model is built on a Cartesian grid system with the Navier Stokes equations using a CIP method for the flow solver, and employs an immersed boundary method (IBM) for the treatment of solid body boundary. A more accurate interface capturing scheme, the Tangent of hyperbola for interface capturing/Slope weighting (THINC/SW) scheme, is adopted as the interface capturing method. Then, the CIP-based model is applied to simulate the dam break flow problem in a bumpy channel. Considerable attention is paid to the spilling type reflected bore, the following spilling type wave breaking, free surface profiles and water level variations over time. Computations are compared with available experimental data and other numerical results quantitatively and qualitatively. Further investigation is conducted to analyze the influence of variable slopes on the flow features of the tsunami-like bore.

Are inundation limit and maximum extent of sand useful for differentiating tsunamis and storms? An example from sediment transport simulations on the Sendai Plain, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Masashi; Goto, Kazuhisa; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Imamura, Fumihiko

2018-02-01

We examined the quantitative difference in the distribution of tsunami and storm deposits based on numerical simulations of inundation and sediment transport due to tsunami and storm events on the Sendai Plain, Japan. The calculated distance from the shoreline inundated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami was smaller than that inundated by storm surges from hypothetical typhoon events. Previous studies have assumed that deposits observed farther inland than the possible inundation limit of storm waves and storm surge were tsunami deposits. However, confirming only the extent of inundation is insufficient to distinguish tsunami and storm deposits, because the inundation limit of storm surges may be farther inland than that of tsunamis in the case of gently sloping coastal topography such as on the Sendai Plain. In other locations, where coastal topography is steep, the maximum inland inundation extent of storm surges may be only several hundred meters, so marine-sourced deposits that are distributed several km inland can be identified as tsunami deposits by default. Over both gentle and steep slopes, another difference between tsunami and storm deposits is the total volume deposited, as flow speed over land during a tsunami is faster than during a storm surge. Therefore, the total deposit volume could also be a useful proxy to differentiate tsunami and storm deposits.

Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Huerta, Laura G.; Ortiz, Modesto; García-Gastélum, Alejandro

2018-03-01

Historical records of the Chile (22 May 1960), Alaska (27 March 1964), and Tohoku (11 March 2011) tsunamis recorded along the Pacific Coast of Mexico are used to investigate the goodness of far-field tsunami modeling using a focal mechanism consisting in a uniform slip distribution on large thrust faults around the Pacific Ocean. The Tohoku 2011 tsunami records recorded by Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations, and at coastal tide stations, were used to validate transoceanic tsunami models applicable to the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco on the coast of Mexico. The amplitude resulting from synthetic tsunamis originated by M w 9.3 earthquakes around the Pacific varies from 1 to 2.5 m, depending on the tsunami origin region and on the directivity due to fault orientation and waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief.

Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Huerta, Laura G.; Ortiz, Modesto; García-Gastélum, Alejandro

2018-04-01

Historical records of the Chile (22 May 1960), Alaska (27 March 1964), and Tohoku (11 March 2011) tsunamis recorded along the Pacific Coast of Mexico are used to investigate the goodness of far-field tsunami modeling using a focal mechanism consisting in a uniform slip distribution on large thrust faults around the Pacific Ocean. The Tohoku 2011 tsunami records recorded by Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations, and at coastal tide stations, were used to validate transoceanic tsunami models applicable to the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco on the coast of Mexico. The amplitude resulting from synthetic tsunamis originated by M w 9.3 earthquakes around the Pacific varies from 1 to 2.5 m, depending on the tsunami origin region and on the directivity due to fault orientation and waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief.

A Preliminary Tsunami vulnerability analysis for Bakirkoy district in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, M.; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

2016-04-01

Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis has major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas under extreme events has major importance for preparedness and development of mitigation strategies. The Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes as well as associated tsunamis. There are variety of coastal facilities such as ports, small craft harbors, and terminals for maritime transportation, water front roads and business centers mainly at North Coast of Marmara Sea in megacity Istanbul. A detailed vulnerability analysis for Yenikapi region and a detailed resilience analysis for Haydarpasa port in Istanbul have been studied in previously by Cankaya et al., (2015) and Aytore et al., (2015) in SATREPS project. In this study, the methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack given in Cankaya et al., (2015) is modified and applied to Bakirkoy district of Istanbul. Bakirkoy district is located at western part of Istanbul and faces to the North Coast of Marmara Sea from 28.77oE to 28.89oE. High resolution spatial dataset of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed. The bathymetry and topography database and the spatial dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the district are collated and utilized for tsunami numerical modeling and following vulnerability analysis. The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability assessment parameters in the district according to vulnerability and resilience are defined; and scored by implementation of a GIS based TVA with appropriate MCDA methods. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and TVA results at every location in Bakirkoy district. The preliminary results are presented and discussed. Acknowledgements: Partial support by Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region in (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAP-C-12-14 project of AFAD, Turkey, 108Y227, 113M556, 213M534 projects of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are acknowledged.

Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by cold volcanic mass flows at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, C.F.; Watts, P.; Walder, J.S.

2006-01-01

Many of the world's active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines. During eruptions, diverse geophysical mass flows, including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches, and lahars, can deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean in a short period of time and thereby generate tsunamis. Deposits of both hot and cold volcanic mass flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet, indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by cold granular subaerial volcanic mass flows using examples from Augustine Volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region, and future eruptions, should they lead to debris-avalanche formation and tsunami generation, could be hazardous to some coastal areas. Geological investigations at Augustine Volcano suggest that as many as 12-14 debris avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during an A.D. 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami that was observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. Numerical simulation of mass-flow motion, tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation for Augustine Volcano indicate only modest wave generation by volcanic mass flows and localized wave effects. However, for east-directed mass flows entering Cook Inlet, tsunamis are capable of reaching the more populated coastlines of the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, where maximum water amplitudes of several meters are possible.

How Do Tides and Tsunamis Interact in a Highly Energetic Channel? The Case of Canal Chacao, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, Patricio; Sepúlveda, Ignacio; Aron, Felipe; Contreras-López, Manuel

2017-12-01

This study aims at understanding the role of tidal level, speed, and direction in tsunami propagation in highly energetic tidal channels. The main goal is to comprehend whether tide-tsunami interactions enhance/reduce elevation, currents speeds, and arrival times, when compared to pure tsunami models and to simulations in which tides and tsunamis are linearly superimposed. We designed various numerical experiments to compute the tsunami propagation along Canal Chacao, a highly energetic channel in the Chilean Patagonia lying on a subduction margin prone to megathrust earthquakes. Three modeling approaches were implemented under the same seismic scenario: a tsunami model with a constant tide level, a series of six composite models in which independent tide and tsunami simulations are linearly superimposed, and a series of six tide-tsunami nonlinear interaction models (full models). We found that hydrodynamic patterns differ significantly among approaches, being the composite and full models sensitive to both the tidal phase at which the tsunami is triggered and the local depth of the channel. When compared to full models, composite models adequately predicted the maximum surface elevation, but largely overestimated currents. The amplitude and arrival time of the tsunami-leading wave computed with the full model was found to be strongly dependent on the direction of the tidal current and less responsive to the tide level and the tidal current speed. These outcomes emphasize the importance of addressing more carefully the interactions of tides and tsunamis on hazard assessment studies.

The UBO-TSUFD tsunami inundation model: validation and application to a tsunami case study focused on the city of Catania, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.

2013-07-01

Nowadays numerical models are a powerful tool in tsunami research since they can be used (i) to reconstruct modern and historical events, (ii) to cast new light on tsunami sources by inverting tsunami data and observations, (iii) to build scenarios in the frame of tsunami mitigation plans, and (iv) to produce forecasts of tsunami impact and inundation in systems of early warning. In parallel with the general recognition of the importance of numerical tsunami simulations, the demand has grown for reliable tsunami codes, validated through tests agreed upon by the tsunami community. This paper presents the tsunami code UBO-TSUFD that has been developed at the University of Bologna, Italy, and that solves the non-linear shallow water (NSW) equations in a Cartesian frame, with inclusion of bottom friction and exclusion of the Coriolis force, by means of a leapfrog (LF) finite-difference scheme on a staggered grid and that accounts for moving boundaries to compute sea inundation and withdrawal at the coast. Results of UBO-TSUFD applied to four classical benchmark problems are shown: two benchmarks are based on analytical solutions, one on a plane wave propagating on a flat channel with a constant slope beach; and one on a laboratory experiment. The code is proven to perform very satisfactorily since it reproduces quite well the benchmark theoretical and experimental data. Further, the code is applied to a realistic tsunami case: a scenario of a tsunami threatening the coasts of eastern Sicily, Italy, is defined and discussed based on the historical tsunami of 11 January 1693, i.e. one of the most severe events in the Italian history.

Observations and Numerical Modeling of the 2012 Haida Gwaii Tsunami off the Coast of British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fine, Isaac V.; Cherniawsky, Josef Y.; Thomson, Richard E.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Krassovski, Maxim V.

2015-03-01

A major ( M w 7.7) earthquake occurred on October 28, 2012 along the Queen Charlotte Fault Zone off the west coast of Haida Gwaii (formerly the Queen Charlotte Islands). The earthquake was the second strongest instrumentally recorded earthquake in Canadian history and generated the largest local tsunami ever recorded on the coast of British Columbia. A field survey on the Pacific side of Haida Gwaii revealed maximum runup heights of up to 7.6 m at sites sheltered from storm waves and 13 m in a small inlet that is less sheltered from storms (L eonard and B ednarski 2014). The tsunami was recorded by tide gauges along the coast of British Columbia, by open-ocean bottom pressure sensors of the NEPTUNE facility at Ocean Networks Canada's cabled observatory located seaward of southwestern Vancouver Island, and by several DART stations located in the northeast Pacific. The tsunami observations, in combination with rigorous numerical modeling, enabled us to determine the physical properties of this event and to correct the location of the tsunami source with respect to the initial geophysical estimates. The initial model results were used to specify sites of particular interest for post-tsunami field surveys on the coast of Moresby Island (Haida Gwaii), while field survey observations (L eonard and B ednarski 2014) were used, in turn, to verify the numerical simulations based on the corrected source region.

An unified numerical simulation of seismic ground motion, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations and tsunamis of 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Furumura, T.; Noguchi, S.; Takemura, S.; Iwai, K.; Lee, S.; Sakai, S.; Shinohara, M.

2011-12-01

The fault rupture of the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) earthquake spread approximately 550 km by 260 km with a long source rupture duration of ~200 s. For such large earthquake with a complicated source rupture process the radiation of seismic wave from the source rupture and initiation of tsunami due to the coseismic deformation is considered to be very complicated. In order to understand such a complicated process of seismic wave, coseismic deformation and tsunami, we proposed a unified approach for total modeling of earthquake induced phenomena in a single numerical scheme based on a finite-difference method simulation (Maeda and Furumura, 2011). This simulation model solves the equation of motion of based on the linear elastic theory with equilibrium between quasi-static pressure and gravity in the water column. The height of tsunami is obtained from this simulation as a vertical displacement of ocean surface. In order to simulate seismic waves, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations, and tsunami from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we assembled a high-resolution 3D heterogeneous subsurface structural model of northern Japan. The area of simulation is 1200 km x 800 km and 120 km in depth, which have been discretized with grid interval of 1 km in horizontal directions and 0.25 km in vertical direction, respectively. We adopt a source-rupture model proposed by Lee et al. (2011) which is obtained by the joint inversion of teleseismic, near-field strong motion, and coseismic deformation. For conducting such a large-scale simulation, we fully parallelized our simulation code based on a domain-partitioning procedure which achieved a good speed-up by parallel computing up to 8192 core processors with parallel efficiency of 99.839%. The simulation result demonstrates clearly the process in which the seismic wave radiates from the complicated source rupture over the fault plane and propagating in heterogeneous structure of northern Japan. Then, generation of tsunami from coseismic ground deformation at sea floor due to the earthquake and propagation is also well demonstrated . The simulation also demonstrates that a very large slip up to 40 m at shallow plate boundary near the trench pushes up sea floor with source rupture propagation, and the highly elevated sea surface gradually start propagation as tsunamis due to the gravity. The result of simulation of vertical-component displacement waveform matches the ocean-bottom pressure gauge record which is installed just above the source fault area (Maeda et al., 2011) very consistently. Strong reverberation of the ocean-acoustic waves between sea surface and sea bottom particularly near the Japan Trench for long time after the source rupture ends is confirmed in the present simulation. Accordingly, long wavetrains of high-frequency ocean acoustic waves is developed and overlap to later tsunami waveforms as we found in the observations.

Combined effects of tectonic and landslide-generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska during the Mw 9.2 1964 earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.J.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Hansen, R.

2011-01-01

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the Mw 9.2 1964 mega thrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in land sliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5 min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211 million m3 (Haeussler et al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269-278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30 min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local land slide generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131-152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559-572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

Development of jacket platform tsunami risk rating system in waters offshore North Borneo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. E.; Liew, M. S.; Mardi, N. H.; Na, K. L.; Toloue, Iraj; Wong, S. K.

2016-09-01

This work details the simulation of tsunami waves generated by seaquakes in the Manila Trench and their effect on fixed oil and gas jacket platforms in waters offshore North Borneo. For this study, a four-leg living quarter jacket platform located in a water depth of 63m is modelled in SACS v5.3. Malaysia has traditionally been perceived to be safe from the hazards of earthquakes and tsunamis. Local design practices tend to neglect tsunami waves and include no such provisions. In 2004, a 9.3 M w seaquake occurred off the northwest coast of Aceh, which generated tsunami waves that caused destruction in Malaysia totalling US 25 million and 68 deaths. This event prompted an awareness of the need to study the reliability of fixed offshore platforms scattered throughout Malaysian waters. In this paper, we present a review of research on the seismicity of the Manila Trench, which is perceived to be high risk for Southeast Asia. From the tsunami numerical model TUNA-M2, we extract computer-simulated tsunami waves at prescribed grid points in the vicinity of the platforms in the region. Using wave heights as input, we simulate the tsunami using SACS v5.3 structural analysis software of offshore platforms, which is widely accepted by the industry. We employ the nonlinear solitary wave theory in our tsunami loading calculations for the platforms, and formulate a platform-specific risk quantification system. We then perform an intensive structural sensitivity analysis and derive a corresponding platform-specific risk rating model.

Pacific Basin tsunami hazards associated with mass flows in the Aleutian arc of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Watts, Philip; Shi, Fengyan; Kirby, James T.

2009-01-01

We analyze mass-flow tsunami generation for selected areas within the Aleutian arc of Alaska using results from numerical simulation of hypothetical but plausible mass-flow sources such as submarine landslides and volcanic debris avalanches. The Aleutian arc consists of a chain of volcanic mountains, volcanic islands, and submarine canyons, surrounded by a low-relief continental shelf above about 1000–2000 m water depth. Parts of the arc are fragmented into a series of fault-bounded blocks, tens to hundreds of kilometers in length, and separated from one another by distinctive fault-controlled canyons that are roughly normal to the arc axis. The canyons are natural regions for the accumulation and conveyance of sediment derived from glacial and volcanic processes. The volcanic islands in the region include a number of historically active volcanoes and some possess geological evidence for large-scale sector collapse into the sea. Large scale mass-flow deposits have not been mapped on the seafloor south of the Aleutian Islands, in part because most of the area has never been examined at the resolution required to identify such features, and in part because of the complex nature of erosional and depositional processes. Extensive submarine landslide deposits and debris flows are known on the north side of the arc and are common in similar settings elsewhere and thus they likely exist on the trench slope south of the Aleutian Islands. Because the Aleutian arc is surrounded by deep, open ocean, mass flows of unconsolidated debris that originate either as submarine landslides or as volcanic debris avalanches entering the sea may be potential tsunami sources. To test this hypothesis we present a series of numerical simulations of submarine mass-flow initiated tsunamis from eight different source areas. We consider four submarine mass flows originating in submarine canyons and four flows that evolve from submarine landslides on the trench slope. The flows have lengths that range from 40 to 80 km, maximum thicknesses of 400–800 m, and maximum widths of 10–40 km. We also evaluate tsunami generation by volcanic debris avalanches associated with flank collapse, at four locations (Makushin, Cleveland, Seguam and Yunaska SW volcanoes), which represent large to moderate sized events in this region. We calculate tsunami sources using the numerical model TOPICS and simulate wave propagation across the Pacific using a spherical Boussinesq model, which is a modified version of the public domain code FUNWAVE. Our numerical simulations indicate that geologically plausible mass flows originating in the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands can indeed generate large local tsunamis as well as large transoceanic tsunamis. These waves may be several meters in elevation at distal locations, such as Japan, Hawaii, and along the North and South American coastlines where they would constitute significant hazards.

Sensitivity of Tsunami Waves and Coastal Inundation/Runup to Seabed Displacement Models: Application to the Cascadia Subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalali Farahani, R.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.

2015-12-01

Major components of tsunami hazard modeling include earthquake source characterization, seabed displacement, wave propagation, and coastal inundation/run-up. Accurate modeling of these components is essential to identify the disaster risk exposures effectively, which would be crucial for insurance industry as well as policy makers to have tsunami resistant design of structures and evacuation planning (FEMA, 2008). In this study, the sensitivity and variability of tsunami coastal inundation due to Cascadia megathrust subduction earthquake are studied by considering the different approaches for seabed displacement model. The first approach is the analytical expressions that were proposed by Okada (1985, 1992) for the surface displacements and strains of rectangular sources. The second approach was introduced by Meade (2006) who introduced analytical solutions for calculating displacements, strains, and stresses on triangular sources. In this study, the seabed displacement using triangular representation of geometrically complex fault surfaces is compared with the Okada rectangular representations for the Cascadia subduction zone. In the triangular dislocation algorithm, the displacement is calculated using superposition of two angular dislocations for each of the three triangle legs. The triangular elements could give a better and gap-free representation of the fault surfaces. In addition, the rectangular representation gives large unphysical vertical displacement along the shallow-depth fault edge that generates unrealistic short-wavelength waves. To study the impact of these two different algorithms on the final tsunami inundation, the initial tsunami wave as well as wave propagation and the coastal inundation are simulated. To model the propagation of tsunami waves and coastal inundation, 2D shallow water equations are modeled using the seabed displacement as the initial condition for the numerical model. Tsunami numerical simulation has been performed on high-resolution bathymetric/topographic computational grids to identify accurate tsunami impact and flooding limits for the west of USA.

Tsunami Detection by High-Frequency Radar Beyond the Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grilli, Stéphan T.; Grosdidier, Samuel; Guérin, Charles-Antoine

2016-12-01

Where coastal tsunami hazard is governed by near-field sources, such as submarine mass failures or meteo-tsunamis, tsunami propagation times may be too small for a detection based on deep or shallow water buoys. To offer sufficient warning time, it has been proposed to implement early warning systems relying on high-frequency (HF) radar remote sensing, that can provide a dense spatial coverage as far offshore as 200-300 km (e.g., for Diginext Ltd.'s Stradivarius radar). Shore-based HF radars have been used to measure nearshore currents (e.g., CODAR SeaSonde® system; http://www.codar.com/), by inverting the Doppler spectral shifts, these cause on ocean waves at the Bragg frequency. Both modeling work and an analysis of radar data following the Tohoku 2011 tsunami, have shown that, given proper detection algorithms, such radars could be used to detect tsunami-induced currents and issue a warning. However, long wave physics is such that tsunami currents will only rise above noise and background currents (i.e., be at least 10-15 cm/s), and become detectable, in fairly shallow water which would limit the direct detection of tsunami currents by HF radar to nearshore areas, unless there is a very wide shallow shelf. Here, we use numerical simulations of both HF radar remote sensing and tsunami propagation to develop and validate a new type of tsunami detection algorithm that does not have these limitations. To simulate the radar backscattered signal, we develop a numerical model including second-order effects in both wind waves and radar signal, with the wave angular frequency being modulated by a time-varying surface current, combining tsunami and background currents. In each "radar cell", the model represents wind waves with random phases and amplitudes extracted from a specified (wind speed dependent) energy density frequency spectrum, and includes effects of random environmental noise and background current; phases, noise, and background current are extracted from independent Gaussian distributions. The principle of the new algorithm is to compute correlations of HF radar signals measured/simulated in many pairs of distant "cells" located along the same tsunami wave ray, shifted in time by the tsunami propagation time between these cell locations; both rays and travel time are easily obtained as a function of long wave phase speed and local bathymetry. It is expected that, in the presence of a tsunami current, correlations computed as a function of range and an additional time lag will show a narrow elevated peak near the zero time lag, whereas no pattern in correlation will be observed in the absence of a tsunami current; this is because surface waves and background current are uncorrelated between pair of cells, particularly when time-shifted by the long-wave propagation time. This change in correlation pattern can be used as a threshold for tsunami detection. To validate the algorithm, we first identify key features of tsunami propagation in the Western Mediterranean Basin, where Stradivarius is deployed, by way of direct numerical simulations with a long wave model. Then, for the purpose of validating the algorithm we only model HF radar detection for idealized tsunami wave trains and bathymetry, but verify that such idealized case studies capture well the salient tsunami wave physics. Results show that, in the presence of strong background currents, the proposed method still allows detecting a tsunami with currents as low as 0.05 m/s, whereas a standard direct inversion based on radar signal Doppler spectra fails to reproduce tsunami currents weaker than 0.15-0.2 m/s. Hence, the new algorithm allows detecting tsunami arrival in deeper water, beyond the shelf and further away from the coast, and providing an early warning. Because the standard detection of tsunami currents works well at short range, we envision that, in a field situation, the new algorithm could complement the standard approach of direct near-field detection by providing a warning that a tsunami is approaching, at larger range and in greater depth. This warning would then be confirmed at shorter range by a direct inversion of tsunami currents, from which the magnitude of the tsunami would also estimated. Hence, both algorithms would be complementary. In future work, the algorithm will be applied to actual tsunami case studies performed using a state-of-the-art long wave model, such as briefly presented here in the Mediterranean Basin.

Earthquake source parameters along the Hellenic subduction zone and numerical simulations of historical tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

2012-04-01

We studied source mechanism parameters and slip distributions of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.0 occurred during 2000-2008 along the Hellenic subduction zone by using teleseismic P- and SH-waveform inversion methods. In addition, the major and well-known earthquake-induced Eastern Mediterranean tsunamis (e.g., 365, 1222, 1303, 1481, 1494, 1822 and 1948) were numerically simulated and several hypothetical tsunami scenarios were proposed to demonstrate the characteristics of tsunami waves, propagations and effects of coastal topography. The analogy of current plate boundaries, earthquake source mechanisms, various earthquake moment tensor catalogues and several empirical self-similarity equations, valid for global or local scales, were used to assume conceivable source parameters which constitute the initial and boundary conditions in simulations. Teleseismic inversion results showed that earthquakes along the Hellenic subduction zone can be classified into three major categories: [1] focal mechanisms of the earthquakes exhibiting E-W extension within the overriding Aegean plate; [2] earthquakes related to the African-Aegean convergence; and [3] focal mechanisms of earthquakes lying within the subducting African plate. Normal faulting mechanisms with left-lateral strike slip components were observed at the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone, and we suggest that they were probably concerned with the overriding Aegean plate. However, earthquakes involved in the convergence between the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean lithospheres indicated thrust faulting mechanisms with strike slip components, and they had shallow focal depths (h < 45 km). Deeper earthquakes mainly occurred in the subducting African plate, and they presented dominantly strike slip faulting mechanisms. Slip distributions on fault planes showed both complex and simple rupture propagations with respect to the variation of source mechanism and faulting geometry. We calculated low stress drop values (Δσ < 30 bars) for all earthquakes implying typically interplate seismic activity in the region. Further, results of numerical simulations verified that damaging historical tsunamis along the Hellenic subduction zone are able to threaten especially the coastal plains of Crete and Rhodes islands, SW Turkey, Cyprus, Levantine, and Nile Delta-Egypt regions. Thus, we tentatively recommend that special care should be considered in the evaluation of the tsunami risk assessment of the Eastern Mediterranean region for future studies.

L'aléa tsunami en Polynésie française : apports de la simulation numérique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sladen, Anthony; Hébert, Hélène; Schindelé, François; Reymond, Dominique

2007-04-01

French Polynesia is frequently struck by transoceanic tsunamis originating from around the Pacific. The numerical modelling of five scenarios defined among threatening source areas has been performed on seven Polynesian sites. The results show that the Marquesian bays are consistently most affected, while the sites in Tahiti and Rurutu are significantly exposed, though less heavily. The tsunami hazard has been then mapped for whole Polynesia. Major tsunamis are expected to hit Marquesas, and Rurutu (Australes), but less frequently. An elevated hazard level is defined for the other Australes and for several Society Islands (especially Tahiti). Tuamotu atolls and other Society Islands are only moderately exposed.

Application of 2D-Nonlinear Shallow Water Model of Tsunami by using Adomian Decomposition Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waewcharoen, Sribudh; Boonyapibanwong, Supachai; Koonprasert, Sanoe

2008-09-01

One of the most important questions in tsunami modeling is the estimation of tsunami run-up heights at different points along a coastline. Methods for numerical simulation of tsunami wave propagation in deep and shallow seas are well developed and have been widely used by many scientists (2001-2008). In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water model of tsunami given by Tivon Jacobson is work [1]. u{sub t}+uu{sub x}+{nu}u{sub y} -c{sup 2}(h{sub x}+(h{sub b}){sub x}) {nu}{sub t}+u{nu}{sub x}+{nu}{nu}{sub y} = -c{sup 2}(h{sub y}+(h{sub b}){sub y}) h{sub t}+(hu){sub x}+(h{nu}){sub y} = 0 g-shore, h is surface elevation and s, tmore » is time, u is velocity of cross-shore, {nu} is velocity of along-shore, h is surface elevation and h{sub b} is function of shore. This is a nondimensionalized model with the gravity g and constant reference depth H factored into c = {radical}(gH). We apply the Adomian Decompostion Method (ADM) to solve the tsunami model. This powerful method has been used to obtain explicit and numerical solutions of three types of diffusion-convection-reaction (DECR) equations. The ADM results for the tsunami model yield analytical solutions in terms of a rapidly convergent infinite power series. Symbolic computation, numerical results and graphs of solutions are obtained by Maple program.« less

Did a slump source cause the 1929 Grand Banks tsunami?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, F.; Schulten, I.; Mosher, D.; Harbitz, C. B.; Krastel, S.

2017-12-01

On November 18, 1929, a Mw 7.2 earthquake occurred beneath the upper Laurentian Fan, south of Newfoundland. The earthquake displaced about 100 km3 of sediment volume that rapidly evolved into a turbidity current revealed by a series of successive telecommunication cable breaks. A tsunami with fatal consequences along the south coast of Newfoundland also resulted. This tsunami is attributed to sediment mass failure as no seafloor displacement due to the earthquake is observed or expected. Although sidescan sonar, sub-bottom profiler and modern multibeam data show surficial sediment slumping and translational slide activity in the upper part of the slope, no major headscarp, single evacuation area or large mass transport deposit are observed. Sediment mass failure has been interpreted as broadly distributed and shallow, likely occurring in a retrogressive fashion. The question remained, therefore, as to how such complex failure kinematics could generate a tsunami. The Grand Banks tsunami is the only landslide tsunami for which traces are found at transoceanic distances. Despite being a landmark event, only a couple of attempts to model the tsunami exist. None of these have been able to match tsunami observations. Recently acquired seismic reflection data suggest that rotational slumping of a thick sediment mass ( 500 m) on the St. Pierre Slope may have occurred, causing seafloor displacements (fault traces) up to 100 m in height. The previously mapped surficial failures were a consequence of slumping of the thicker mass. Here, we simulate tsunami generation using the new geophysical information to construct different tsunamigenic slump sources. In addition, we undertake simulations assuming a flowing surficial landslide. The numerical simulations shows that its large and rapid vertical displacements render the slump source more tsunamigenic than the alternative surficial landslide. The simulations using the slump source roughly complies with observations of large run-ups on the Burin Peninsula along the south coast of Newfoundland, in contrast to previous modelling attempts. As the source extensions complies with new observations of rotational failures at the slope, the simulations suggest that a slump source is the most likely explanation for the large tsunami observations due to the Grand Banks event.

A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan.

PubMed

Shuto, Nobuo; Fujima, Koji

2009-01-01

The tsunami science and engineering began in Japan, the country the most frequently hit by local and distant tsunamis. The gate to the tsunami science was opened in 1896 by a giant local tsunami of the highest run-up height of 38 m that claimed 22,000 lives. The crucial key was a tide record to conclude that this tsunami was generated by a "tsunami earthquake". In 1933, the same area was hit again by another giant tsunami. A total system of tsunami disaster mitigation including 10 "hard" and "soft" countermeasures was proposed. Relocation of dwelling houses to high ground was the major countermeasures. The tsunami forecasting began in 1941. In 1960, the Chilean Tsunami damaged the whole Japanese Pacific coast. The height of this tsunami was 5-6 m at most. The countermeasures were the construction of structures including the tsunami breakwater which was the first one in the world. Since the late 1970s, tsunami numerical simulation was developed in Japan and refined to become the UNESCO standard scheme that was transformed to 22 different countries. In 1983, photos and videos of a tsunami in the Japan Sea revealed many faces of tsunami such as soliton fission and edge bores. The 1993 tsunami devastated a town protected by seawalls 4.5 m high. This experience introduced again the idea of comprehensive countermeasures, consisted of defense structure, tsunami-resistant town development and evacuation based on warning.

The "Tsunami Earthquake" of 13 April 1923 in Northern Kamchatka: Seismological and Hydrodynamic Investigations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salaree, Amir; Okal, Emile A.

2018-04-01

We present a seismological and hydrodynamic investigation of the earthquake of 13 April 1923 at Ust'-Kamchatsk, Northern Kamchatka, which generated a more powerful and damaging tsunami than the larger event of 03 February 1923, thus qualifying as a so-called "tsunami earthquake". On the basis of modern relocations, we suggest that it took place outside the fault area of the mainshock, across the oblique Pacific-North America plate boundary, a model confirmed by a limited dataset of mantle waves, which also confirms the slow nature of the source, characteristic of tsunami earthquakes. However, numerical simulations for a number of legitimate seismic models fail to reproduce the sharply peaked distribution of tsunami wave amplitudes reported in the literature. By contrast, we can reproduce the distribution of reported wave amplitudes using an underwater landslide as a source of the tsunami, itself triggered by the earthquake inside the Kamchatskiy Bight.

Inter-model analysis of tsunami-induced coastal currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, Patrick J.; Gately, Kara; Wilson, Rick; Montoya, Luis; Arcas, Diego; Aytore, Betul; Bai, Yefei; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Castro, Manuel J.; Cheung, Kwok Fai; David, C. Gabriel; Dogan, Gozde Guney; Escalante, Cipriano; González-Vida, José Manuel; Grilli, Stephan T.; Heitmann, Troy W.; Horrillo, Juan; Kânoğlu, Utku; Kian, Rozita; Kirby, James T.; Li, Wenwen; Macías, Jorge; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Ortega, Sergio; Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Park, Yong Sung; Roeber, Volker; Sharghivand, Naeimeh; Shelby, Michael; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Tolkova, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Velioğlu, Deniz; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Zaytsev, Andrey; Zhang, Y. J.

2017-06-01

To help produce accurate and consistent maritime hazard products, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program organized a benchmarking workshop to evaluate the numerical modeling of tsunami currents. Thirteen teams of international researchers, using a set of tsunami models currently utilized for hazard mitigation studies, presented results for a series of benchmarking problems; these results are summarized in this paper. Comparisons focus on physical situations where the currents are shear and separation driven, and are thus de-coupled from the incident tsunami waveform. In general, we find that models of increasing physical complexity provide better accuracy, and that low-order three-dimensional models are superior to high-order two-dimensional models. Inside separation zones and in areas strongly affected by eddies, the magnitude of both model-data errors and inter-model differences can be the same as the magnitude of the mean flow. Thus, we make arguments for the need of an ensemble modeling approach for areas affected by large-scale turbulent eddies, where deterministic simulation may be misleading. As a result of the analyses presented herein, we expect that tsunami modelers now have a better awareness of their ability to accurately capture the physics of tsunami currents, and therefore a better understanding of how to use these simulation tools for hazard assessment and mitigation efforts.

Modeling of Marine Natural Hazards in the Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahibo, Narcisse; Nikolkina, Irina; Pelinovsky, Efim

2010-05-01

The Caribbean Sea countries are often affected by various marine natural hazards: hurricanes and cyclones, tsunamis and flooding. The historical data of marine natural hazards for the Lesser Antilles and specially, for Guadeloupe are presented briefly. Numerical simulation of several historical tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea (1755 Lisbon trans-Atlantic tsunami, 1867 Virgin Island earthquake tsunami, 2003 Montserrat volcano tsunami) are performed within the framework of the nonlinear-shallow theory. Numerical results demonstrate the importance of the real bathymetry variability with respect to the direction of propagation of tsunami wave and its characteristics. The prognostic tsunami wave height distribution along the Caribbean Coast is computed using various forms of seismic and hydrodynamics sources. These results are used to estimate the far-field potential for tsunami hazards at coastal locations in the Caribbean Sea. The nonlinear shallow-water theory is also applied to model storm surges induced by tropical cyclones, in particular, cyclones "Lilli" in 2002 and "Dean" in 2007. Obtained results are compared with observed data. The numerical models have been tested against known analytical solutions of the nonlinear shallow-water wave equations. Obtained results are described in details in [1-7]. References [1] N. Zahibo and E. Pelinovsky, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 1, 221 (2001). [2] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, A. Yalciner, A. Kurkin, A. Koselkov and A. Zaitsev, Oceanologica Acta, 26, 609 (2003). [3] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, A. Kurkin and A. Kozelkov, Science Tsunami Hazards. 21, 202 (2003). [4] E. Pelinovsky, N. Zahibo, P. Dunkley, M. Edmonds, R. Herd, T. Talipova, A. Kozelkov and I. Nikolkina, Science of Tsunami Hazards, 22, 44 (2004). [5] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, E. Okal, A. Yalciner, C. Kharif, T. Talipova and A. Kozelkov, Science of Tsunami Hazards, 23, 25 (2005). [6] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, T. Talipova, A. Rabinovich, A. Kurkin and I. Nikolkina, Atmospheric Research. 84, 13 (2007). [7] Zahibo, N., Pelinovsky, E., Kurkin, A., and Nikolkina, I. Tsunami hazard for the French West Indies, Lesser Antilles. Integrated Coastal Zone Management (Ed. R. KRISHNAMURTHY). Re-search Publ., Singapore, 2008, 517-535.

Parallel Processing of Numerical Tsunami Simulations on a High Performance Cluster based on the GDAL Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, Matthias; Jankowski, Cedric; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

2014-05-01

Thousands of numerical tsunami simulations allow the computation of inundation and run-up along the coast for vulnerable areas over the time. A so-called Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) [1] contains this large number of simulations in text file format. In order to visualize these wave propagations the scenarios have to be reprocessed automatically. In the TRIDEC project funded by the seventh Framework Programme of the European Union a Virtual Scenario Database (VSDB) and a Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) were established amongst others by the working group of the University of Bologna (UniBo) [1]. One part of TRIDEC was the developing of a new generation of a Decision Support System (DSS) for tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) [2]. A working group of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences was responsible for developing the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) as central software application which support operator activities, incident management and message disseminations. For the integration and visualization in the CCUI, the numerical tsunami simulations from MSDB must be converted into the shapefiles format. The usage of shapefiles enables a much easier integration into standard Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Since also the CCUI is based on two widely used open source products (GeoTools library and uDig), whereby the integration of shapefiles is provided by these libraries a priori. In this case, for an example area around the Western Iberian margin several thousand tsunami variations were processed. Due to the mass of data only a program-controlled process was conceivable. In order to optimize the computing efforts and operating time the use of an existing GFZ High Performance Computing Cluster (HPC) had been chosen. Thus, a geospatial software was sought after that is capable for parallel processing. The FOSS tool Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL/OGR) was used to match the coordinates with the wave heights and generates the different shapefiles for certain time steps. The shapefiles contain afterwards lines for visualizing the isochrones of the wave propagation and moreover, data about the maximum wave height and the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) at the coast. Our contribution shows the entire workflow and the visualizing results of the-processing for the example region Western Iberian ocean margin. [1] Armigliato A., Pagnoni G., Zaniboni F, Tinti S. (2013), Database of tsunami scenario simulations for Western Iberia: a tool for the TRIDEC Project Decision Support System for tsunami early warning, Vol. 15, EGU2013-5567, EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna (Austria). [2] Löwe, P., Wächter, J., Hammitzsch, M., Lendholt, M., Häner, R. (2013): The Evolution of Service-oriented Disaster Early Warning Systems in the TRIDEC Project, 23rd International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference - ISOPE-2013, Anchorage (USA).

A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

2014-12-01

Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

The 1887 earthquake and tsunami in the Ligurian Sea: analysis of coastal effects studied by numerical modeling and prototype for real-time computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, Angélique; Gailler, Audrey; Loevenbruck, Anne; Heinrich, Philippe; Hébert, Hélène

2017-04-01

The February 1887 earthquake in Italy (Imperia) triggered a tsunami well observed on the French and Italian coastlines. Tsunami waves were recorded on a tide gauge in the Genoa harbour with a small, recently reappraised maximum amplitude of about 10-12 cm (crest-to-trough). The magnitude of the earthquake is still debated in the recent literature, and discussed according to available macroseismic, tectonic and tsunami data. While the tsunami waveform observed in the Genoa harbour may be well explained with a magnitude smaller than 6.5 (Hébert et al., EGU 2015), we investigate in this study whether such source models are consistent with the tsunami effects reported elsewhere along the coastline. The idea is to take the opportunity of the fine bathymetric data recently synthetized for the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) to test the 1887 source parameters using refined, nested grid tsunami numerical modeling down to the harbour scale. Several source parameters are investigated to provide a series of models accounting for various magnitudes and mechanisms. This allows us to compute the tsunami effects for several coastal sites in France (Nice, Villefranche, Antibes, Mandelieu, Cannes) and to compare with observations. Meanwhile we also check the computing time of the chosen scenarios to study whether running nested grids simulation in real time can be suitable in operational context in term of computational cost for these Ligurian scenarios. This work is supported by the FP7 ASTARTE project (Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe, grant 603839 FP7) and by the French PIA TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through Modeling) project (grant ANR-11-RSNR-00023).

Earthquake-triggered landslides along the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (off Augusta, eastern Sicily, Italy) - assessment of the related tsunamigenic potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

2017-02-01

Eastern Sicily is affected by earthquakes and tsunamis of local and remote origin, which is known through numerous historical chronicles. Recent studies have put emphasis on the role of submarine landslides as the direct cause of the main local tsunamis, envisaging that earthquakes (in 1693 and 1908) did produce a tsunami, but also that they triggered mass failures that were able to generate an even larger tsunami. The debate is still open, and though no general consensus has been found among scientists so far, this research had the merit to attract attention on possible generation of tsunamis by landslides off Sicily. In this paper we investigate the tsunami potential of mass failures along one sector of the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (HME). facing Augusta. The HME is the main offshore geological structure of the region running almost parallel to the coast, off eastern Sicily. Here, bottom morphology and slope steepness favour soil failures. In our work we study slope stability under seismic load along a number of HME transects by using the Minimun Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method, which is based on the limit-equilibrium theory. The main goal is to identify sectors of the HME that could be unstable under the effect of realistic earthquakes. We estimate the possible landslide volume and use it as input for numerical codes to simulate the landslide motion and the consequent tsunami. This is an important step for the assessment of the tsunami hazard in eastern Sicily and for local tsunami mitigation policies. It is also important in view of tsunami warning system since it can help to identify the minimum earthquake magnitude capable of triggering destructive tsunamis induced by landslides, and therefore to set up appropriate knowledge-based criteria to launch alert to the population.

Effects of fringing reefs on tsunami inundation: American Samoa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gelfenbaum, G.; Apotsos, A.; Stevens, A.W.; Jaffe, B.

2011-01-01

A numerical model of tsunami inundation, Delft3D, which has been validated for the 29 September 2009 tsunami in Tutuila, American Samoa, is used to better understand the impact of fringing coral reefs and embayments on tsunami wave heights, inundation distances, and velocities. The inundation model is used to explore the general conditions under which fringing reefs act as coastal buffers against incoming tsunamis. Of particular interest is the response of tsunamis to reefs of varying widths, depths, and roughness, as well as the effects of channels incised in the reef and the focusing effect of embayments. Model simulations for conditions similar to Tutuila, yet simplified to be uniform in the alongshore, suggest that for narrow reefs, less than about 200 m wide, the shoaling owing to shallow water depths over the fringing reef dominates, inducing greater wave heights onshore under some conditions and farther inundation inland. As the reef width increases, wave dissipation through bottom friction begins to dominate and the reef causes the tsunami wave heights to decrease and the tsunami to inundate less far inland. A sensitivity analysis suggests that coral reef roughness is important in determining the manner in which a fringing reef affects tsunami inundation. Smooth reefs are more likely to increase the onshore velocity within the tsunami compared to rough reefs. A larger velocity will likely result in an increased impact of the tsunami on structures and buildings. Simulations developed to explore 2D coastal morphology show that incised channels similar to those found around Tutuila, as well as coastal embayments, also affect tsunami inundation, allowing larger waves to penetrate farther inland. The largest effect is found for channels located within embayments, and for embayments that narrow landward. These simulations suggest that embayments that narrow landward, such as Fagafue Bay on the north side of Tutuila, and that have an incised deep channel, can cause a significant increase in tsunami wave heights, inundation distances, and velocities. Wide embayments, similar in size to Massacre Bay, induce some tsunami amplification, but not as much as for the narrowing embayment.

Acoustic Eaton lens array and its fluid application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sang-Hoon; Sy, Pham-Van; Das, Mukunda P.

2017-03-01

A principle of an acoustic Eaton lens array and its application as a removable tsunami wall is proposed theoretically. The lenses are made of expandable rubber pillars or balloons and create a stop-band by rotating the incoming tsunami wave and reduce the pressure by canceling each other. The diameter of each lens is larger than the wavelength of the tsunami near the coast, that is, order of a kilometer. The impedance matching on the border of the lenses results in a little reflection. Before a tsunami, the balloons are buried underground in shallow water near the coast in folded or rounded form. Upon sounding of the tsunami alarm, water and air are pumped into the pillars, which expand and erect the wall above the sea level within a few hours. After the tsunami, the water and air are released from the pillars, which are then buried underground for reuse. Electricity is used to power the entire process. A numerical simulation with a linear tsunami model was carried out.

Assessing tsunami-induced groundwater salinization and its temporal change: a numerical modelling study on the Niijima Island, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiaqi; Tokunaga, Tomochika

2016-04-01

Groundwater is vulnerable to many natural hazards, including tsunami. As reported after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake, the generated massive tsunami inundations resulted in unexpected groundwater salinization in coastal areas. Water supply was strongly disturbed due to the significantly elevated salinity in groundwater. Supplying fresh water is one of the prioritized concerns in the immediate aftermath of disaster, and during long-term post-disaster reconstruction as well. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of tsunami on coastal groundwater system and provide guidelines on managing water resources in post-tsunami period. We selected the study area as the Niijima Island, a tsunami-prone area in Japan, which is under the risk of being attacked by a devastated tsunami with its wave height up to 30 m. A three-dimension (3-D) numerical model of the groundwater system on the Niijima Island was developed by using the simulation code FEFLOW which can handle both density- dependent groundwater flow and saturated-unsaturated flow processes. The model was justified by the measured water table data obtained from the field work in July, 2015. By using this model, we investigated saltwater intrusion and aquifer recovery process under different tsunami scenarios. Modelling results showed that saltwater could fully saturate the vadose zone and come into contact with groundwater table in just 10 mins. The 0.6 km2 of inundation area introduced salt mass equivalent to approximately 9×104 t of NaCl into the vadose zone. After the retreat of tsunami waves, the remained saltwater in vadose zone continuously intruded into the groundwater and dramatically salinized the aquifer up to about 10,000 mg/L. In the worst tsunami scenario, it took more than 10 years for the polluted aquifer to be entirely recovered by natural rainfall. Given that the groundwater is the only freshwater source on the Niijima Island, we can provide suggestions on preparedness of tsunami disasters and guidelines of supplying water resource in post-tsunami period based on these numerical modelling results. This approach has implications for the disaster prevention and the better preparation with respect to tsunami and tsunami-like events such as storm surges on other coastal areas.

Tsunami Simulation using CIP Method with Characteristic Curve Equations and TVD-MacCormack Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukazawa, Souki; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

2015-04-01

After entering 21st century, we already had two big tsunami disasters associated with Mw9 earthquakes in Sumatra and Japan. To mitigate the damages of tsunami, the numerical simulation technology combined with information technologies could provide reliable predictions in planning countermeasures to prevent the damage to the social system, making safety maps, and submitting early evacuation information to the residents. Shallow water equations are still solved not only for global scale simulation of the ocean tsunami propagation but also for local scale simulation of overland inundation in many tsunami simulators though three-dimensional model starts to be used due to improvement of CPU. One-dimensional shallow water equations are below: partial bm{Q}/partial t+partial bm{E}/partial x=bm{S} in which bm{Q}=( D M )), bm{E}=( M M^2/D+gD^2/2 )), bm{S}=( 0 -gDpartial z/partial x-gn2 M|M| /D7/3 )). where D[m] is total water depth; M[m^2/s] is water flux; z[m] is topography; g[m/s^2] is the gravitational acceleration; n[s/m1/3] is Manning's roughness coefficient. To solve these, the staggered leapfrog scheme is used in a lot of wide-scale tsunami simulator. But this scheme has a problem that lagging phase error occurs when courant number is small. In some practical simulation, a kind of diffusion term is added. In this study, we developed two wide-scale tsunami simulators with different schemes and compared usual scheme and other schemes in practicability and validity. One is a total variation diminishing modification of the MacCormack method (TVD-MacCormack method) which is famous for the simulation of compressible fluids. The other is the Cubic Interpolated Profile (CIP) method with characteristic curve equations transformed from shallow water equations. Characteristic curve equations derived from shallow water equations are below: partial R_x±/partial t+C_x±partial R_x±/partial x=∓ g/2partial z/partial x in which R_x±=√{gD}± u/2, C_x±=u± √{gD}. where u[m/s] is water velocity. It is difficult to solve the inundation on the land with these methods though These two methods are applicable to the ocean tsunami propagation. We studied how to apply these methods to overland inundation and how to couple the ocean global model with the land local model. Simple case studies of ocean tsunami propagation and overland tsunami inundation were performed to validate three methods comparing the results with theoretical solution. Finally, we performed case studies of the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 and confirmed the applicability to the actual tsunami.

Integrated Tsunami Database: simulation and identification of seismic tsunami sources, 3D visualization and post-disaster assessment on the shore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivorot'ko, Olga; Kabanikhin, Sergey; Marinin, Igor; Karas, Adel; Khidasheli, David

2013-04-01

One of the most important problems of tsunami investigation is the problem of seismic tsunami source reconstruction. Non-profit organization WAPMERR (http://wapmerr.org) has provided a historical database of alleged tsunami sources around the world that obtained with the help of information about seaquakes. WAPMERR also has a database of observations of the tsunami waves in coastal areas. The main idea of presentation consists of determining of the tsunami source parameters using seismic data and observations of the tsunami waves on the shore, and the expansion and refinement of the database of presupposed tsunami sources for operative and accurate prediction of hazards and assessment of risks and consequences. Also we present 3D visualization of real-time tsunami wave propagation and loss assessment, characterizing the nature of the building stock in cities at risk, and monitoring by satellite images using modern GIS technology ITRIS (Integrated Tsunami Research and Information System) developed by WAPMERR and Informap Ltd. The special scientific plug-in components are embedded in a specially developed GIS-type graphic shell for easy data retrieval, visualization and processing. The most suitable physical models related to simulation of tsunamis are based on shallow water equations. We consider the initial-boundary value problem in Ω := {(x,y) ?R2 : x ?(0,Lx ), y ?(0,Ly ), Lx,Ly > 0} for the well-known linear shallow water equations in the Cartesian coordinate system in terms of the liquid flow components in dimensional form Here ?(x,y,t) defines the free water surface vertical displacement, i.e. amplitude of a tsunami wave, q(x,y) is the initial amplitude of a tsunami wave. The lateral boundary is assumed to be a non-reflecting boundary of the domain, that is, it allows the free passage of the propagating waves. Assume that the free surface oscillation data at points (xm, ym) are given as a measured output data from tsunami records: fm(t) := ? (xm, ym,t), (xm,ym ) ?Ω, t ?(Tm1, Tm2), m = 1,2,...,M, M ?N (2) The problem of tsunami source reconstruction (inverse tsunami problem) consists of determining the unknown initial perturbation q(x,y) of the free surface defied in (1) from knowledge of the free surface oscillation data fm(t) given by (2). We present a numerical method to determine the tsunami source using measurements of the height of a passing tsunami wave. Proposed approach based on the weak solution theory for hyperbolic PDEs and adjoint problem method for minimization of the corresponding cost functional 2 J(q) = ?Aq - F? , F = (f1,...,fM ). (3) The adjoint problem is defined to obtain an explicit gradient formula for the cost functional (3). Different numerical algorithms (finite-difference approach and finite volume method) are proposed for the direct as well as adjoint problem. Conjugate gradient algorithm based on explicit gradient formula is used for numerical solution of the inverse problem (1)-(2). This work was partially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No. 12-01-00773) and by SB RAS interdisciplinary project 14 "Inverse Problems and Applications: Theory, Algorithms, Software".

Volcanic Tsunami Generation in the Aleutian Arc of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waythomas, C. F.; Watts, P.

2003-12-01

Many of the worlds active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines, and during eruptions the transfer of mass from volcano to sea is a potential source mechanism for tsunamis. Flows of granular material off of volcanoes, such as pyroclastic flow, debris avalanche, and lahar, often deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean that have a large potential tsunami hazard. The deposits of both hot and cold volcanic grain flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by granular subaerial volcanic flows using examples from Aniakchak volcano in southwestern Alaska, and Augustine volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Evidence for far-field tsunami inundation coincident with a major caldera-forming eruption of Aniakchak volcano ca. 3.5 ka has been described and is the basis for one of our case studies. We perform a numerical simulation of the tsunami using a large volume pyroclastic flow as the source mechanism and compare our results to field measurements of tsunami deposits preserved along the north shore of Bristol Bay. Several attributes of the tsunami simulation, such as water flux and wave amplitude, are reasonable predictors of tsunami deposit thickness and generally agree with the field evidence for tsunami inundation. At Augustine volcano, geological investigations suggest that as many as 14 large volcanic-rock avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during the 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. By analogy with the 1883 event, previous studies concluded that tsunamis could have been generated many times in the past. If so, geological evidence of tsunamis, such as tsunami deposits on land, should be found in the area around Augustine Island. Paradoxically, unequivocal evidence for tsunami inundation has been found. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region and a future tsunami from the volcano would have devastating consequences to villages, towns, oil-production facilities, and the fishing industry, especially if it occurred at high tide (the tidal range in this area is about 5 m). Numerical simulation experiments of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation using a subaerial debris avalanche source at Augustine volcano indicate only modest wave generation because of the shallow water surrounding the volcano (maximum water depth about 25 m). Lahar flows produced during eruptions at snow and ice clad volcanoes in the Aleutian arc also deliver copious amounts of sediment to the sea. These flows only rarely transform to subaqueous debris flows that may become tsunamigenic. However, the accumulation of loose, unconsolidated sediment on the continental shelf may lead to subaqueous debris flows and landslides if these deposits become mobilized by large earthquakes. Tsunamis produced by this mechanism could potentially reach coastlines all along the Pacific Rim. Finally, recent work in the western Aleutian Islands indicates that many of the island volcanoes in this area have experienced large-scale flank collapse. Because these volcanoes are surrounded by deep water, the tsunami hazard associated with a future sector collapse could be significant.

The 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the Southeastern Pacific Ocean: New Global Insight from Observations and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, A. B.; Titov, V. V.; Moore, C. W.; Eblé, M. C.

2017-10-01

The 2004 Sumatra tsunami was an unprecedented global disaster measured throughout the world oceans. The present study focused on a region of the southeastern Pacific Ocean where the "westward" circumferentially propagating tsunami branch converged with the "eastward" branch, based on data from fortuitously placed Chilean DART 32401 and tide gauges along the coast of South America. By comparison of the tsunami and background spectra, we suppressed the influence of topography and reconstructed coastal "spectral ratios" that were in close agreement with a ratio at DART 32401 and spectral ratios in other oceans. Findings indicate that even remote tsunami records carry spectral source signatures ("birth-marks"). The 2004 tsunami waves were found to occupy the broad frequency band of 0.25-10 cph with the prominent ratio peak at period of 40 min related to the southern fast-slip source domain. This rupture "hot-spot" of ˜350 km was responsible for the global impact of the 2004 tsunami. Data from DART 32401 provided validation of model results: the simulated maximum tsunami wave height of 2.25 cm was a conservative approximation to the measured height of 2.05 cm; the computed tsunami travel time of 25 h 35 min to DART 32401, although 20 min earlier than the actual travel time, provided a favorable result in comparison with 24 h 25 min estimated from classical kinematic theory. The numerical simulations consistently reproduced the wave height changes observed along the coast of South America, including local amplification of tsunami waves at the northern stations of Arica (72 cm) and Callao (67 cm).

Numerical Modelling of Tsunami Generated by Deformable Submarine Slides: Parameterisation of Slide Dynamics for Coupling to Tsunami Propagation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R. C.; Collins, G. S.; Hill, J.; Piggott, M. D.; Mouradian, S. L.

2015-12-01

Numerical modelling informs risk assessment of tsunami generated by submarine slides; however, for large-scale slides modelling can be complex and computationally challenging. Many previous numerical studies have approximated slides as rigid blocks that moved according to prescribed motion. However, wave characteristics are strongly dependent on the motion of the slide and previous work has recommended that more accurate representation of slide dynamics is needed. We have used the finite-element, adaptive-mesh CFD model Fluidity, to perform multi-material simulations of deformable submarine slide-generated waves at real world scales for a 2D scenario in the Gulf of Mexico. Our high-resolution approach represents slide dynamics with good accuracy, compared to other numerical simulations of this scenario, but precludes tracking of wave propagation over large distances. To enable efficient modelling of further propagation of the waves, we investigate an approach to extract information about the slide evolution from our multi-material simulations in order to drive a single-layer wave propagation model, also using Fluidity, which is much less computationally expensive. The extracted submarine slide geometry and position as a function of time are parameterised using simple polynomial functions. The polynomial functions are used to inform a prescribed velocity boundary condition in a single-layer simulation, mimicking the effect the submarine slide motion has on the water column. The approach is verified by successful comparison of wave generation in the single-layer model with that recorded in the multi-material, multi-layer simulations. We then extend this approach to 3D for further validation of this methodology (using the Gulf of Mexico scenario proposed by Horrillo et al., 2013) and to consider the effect of lateral spreading. This methodology is then used to simulate a series of hypothetical submarine slide events in the Arctic Ocean (based on evidence of historic slides) and examine the hazard posed to the UK coast.

3D numerical investigation on landslide generated tsunamis around a conical island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montagna, Francesca; Bellotti, Giorgio

2010-05-01

This paper presents numerical computations of tsunamis generated by subaerial and submerged landslides falling along the flank of a conical island. The study is inspired by the tsunamis that on 30th December 2002 attacked the coast of the volcanic island of Stromboli (South Tyrrhenian sea, Italy). In particular this paper analyzes the important feature of the lateral spreading of landside generated tsunamis and the associated flooding hazard. The numerical model used in this study is the full three dimensional commercial code FLOW-3D. The model has already been successfully used (Choi et al., 2007; 2008; Chopakatla et al, 2008) to study the interaction of waves and structures. In the simulations carried out in this work a particular feature of the code has been employed: the GMO (General Moving Object) algorithm. It allows to reproduce the interaction between moving objects, as a landslide, and the water. FLOW-3D has been firstly validated using available 3D experiments reproducing tsunamis generated by landslides at the flank of a conical island. The experiments have been carried out in the LIC laboratory of the Polytechnic of Bari, Italy (Di Risio et al., 2009). Numerical and experimental time series of run-up and sea level recorded at gauges located at the flanks of the island and offshore have been successfully compared. This analysis shows that the model can accurately represent the generation, the propagation and the inundation of landslide generated tsunamis and suggests the use of the numerical model as a tool for preparing inundation maps. At the conference we will present the validation of the model and parametric analyses aimed to investigate how wave properties depend on the landslide kinematic and on further parameters such as the landslide volume and shape, as well as the radius of the island. The expected final results of the research are precomputed inundation maps that depend on the characteristics of the landslide and of the island. Finally we will try to apply the code to a real life case i.e. the landslide tsunamis at the coast of the Stromboli island (Italy). SELECTED REFERENCES Choi, B.H. and D. C. Kim and E. Pelinovsky and S. B. Woo, 2007. Three dimensional simulation of tsunami run-up around conical island. Coastal Engineering 54,374 pp. 618-629. Chopakatla, S.C. and T.C. Lipmann and J.E. Richardson, 2008. Field verification of a computational fluid dynamics model for wave transformation and breaking in the surf zone. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 134(2), pp. 71-80 Di Risio, M., P. De Girolamo, G. Bellotti, A. Panizzo, F. Aristodemo, M. G.Molfetta, and A. F. Petrillo (2009), Landslidegenerated tsunamis runup at the coast of a conical island: New physical model experiments. J. Geophys. Res., 114, C01009, doi:10.1029/2008JC004858 Flow Science, Inc, 2007. FLOW-3D User's Manual.

A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan

PubMed Central

Shuto, Nobuo; Fujima, Koji

2009-01-01

The tsunami science and engineering began in Japan, the country the most frequently hit by local and distant tsunamis. The gate to the tsunami science was opened in 1896 by a giant local tsunami of the highest run-up height of 38 m that claimed 22,000 lives. The crucial key was a tide record to conclude that this tsunami was generated by a “tsunami earthquake”. In 1933, the same area was hit again by another giant tsunami. A total system of tsunami disaster mitigation including 10 “hard” and “soft” countermeasures was proposed. Relocation of dwelling houses to high ground was the major countermeasures. The tsunami forecasting began in 1941. In 1960, the Chilean Tsunami damaged the whole Japanese Pacific coast. The height of this tsunami was 5–6 m at most. The countermeasures were the construction of structures including the tsunami breakwater which was the first one in the world. Since the late 1970s, tsunami numerical simulation was developed in Japan and refined to become the UNESCO standard scheme that was transformed to 22 different countries. In 1983, photos and videos of a tsunami in the Japan Sea revealed many faces of tsunami such as soliton fission and edge bores. The 1993 tsunami devastated a town protected by seawalls 4.5 m high. This experience introduced again the idea of comprehensive countermeasures, consisted of defense structure, tsunami-resistant town development and evacuation based on warning. PMID:19838008

Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment of Tectonic and Landslide Tsunamis in Southeast Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Koehler, R. D., III

2014-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska, and is currently focused on the southeastern region and communities of Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Gustavus and Hoonah. This activity provides local emergency officials with tsunami hazard assessment, planning, and mitigation tools. At-risk communities are distributed along several segments of the Alaska coastline, each having a unique seismic history and potential tsunami hazard. Thus, a critical component of our project is accurate identification and characterization of potential tectonic and landslide tsunami sources. The primary tectonic element of Southeast Alaska is the Fairweather - Queen Charlotte fault system, which has ruptured in 5 large strike-slip earthquakes in the past 100 years. The 1958 "Lituya Bay" earthquake triggered a large landslide into Lituya Bay that generated a 540-m-high wave. The M7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake of October 28, 2012 occurred along the same fault, but was associated with dominantly vertical motion, generating a local tsunami. Communities in Southeast Alaska are also vulnerable to hazards related to locally generated waves, due to proximity of communities to landslide-prone fjords and frequent earthquakes. The primary mechanisms for local tsunami generation are failure of steep rock slopes due to relaxation of internal stresses after deglaciation, and failure of thick unconsolidated sediments accumulated on underwater delta fronts at river mouths. We numerically model potential tsunami waves and inundation extent that may result from future hypothetical far- and near-field earthquakes and landslides. We perform simulations for each source scenario using the Alaska Tsunami Model, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by emergency planners.

Modeling Extra-Long Tsunami Propagation: Assessing Data, Model Accuracy and Forecast Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V. V.; Moore, C. W.; Rabinovich, A.

2017-12-01

Detecting and modeling tsunamis propagating tens of thousands of kilometers from the source is a formidable scientific challenge and seemingly satisfies only scientific curiosity. However, results of such analyses produce a valuable insight into the tsunami propagation dynamics, model accuracy and would provide important implications for tsunami forecast. The Mw = 9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that devastated Indian Ocean coastlines and spread into the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The tsunami was recorded by a great number of coastal tide gauges, including those located in 15-25 thousand kilometers from the source area. To date, it is still the farthest instrumentally detected tsunami. The data from these instruments throughout the world oceans enabled to estimate various statistical parameters and energy decay of this event. High-resolution records of this tsunami from DARTs 32401 (offshore of northern Chile), 46405 and NeMO (both offshore of the US West Coast), combined with the mainland tide gauge measurements enabled us to examine far-field characteristics of the 2004 in the Pacific Ocean and to compare the results of global numerical simulations with the observations. Despite their small heights (less than 2 cm at deep-ocean locations), the records demonstrated consistent spatial and temporal structure. The numerical model described well the frequency content, amplitudes and general structure of the observed waves at deep-ocean and coastal gages. We present analysis of the measurements and comparison with model data to discuss implication for tsunami forecast accuracy. Model study for such extreme distances from the tsunami source and at extra-long times after the event is an attempt to find accuracy bounds for tsunami models and accuracy limitations of model use for forecast. We discuss results in application to tsunami model forecast and tsunami modeling in general.

Numerical Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Only Active Lesser Antilles Arc Submarine Volcano: Kick 'em Jenny.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dondin, F. J. Y.; Dorville, J. F. M.; Robertson, R. E. A.

2015-12-01

The Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc has potentially been hit by prehistorical regional tsunamis generated by voluminous volcanic landslides (volume > 1 km3) among the 53 events recognized so far. No field evidence of these tsunamis are found in the vincity of the sources. Such a scenario taking place nowadays would trigger hazardous tsunami waves bearing potentially catastrophic consequences for the closest islands and regional offshore oil platforms.Here we applied a complete hazard assessment method on the only active submarine volcano of the arc Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ). KeJ is the southernmost edifice with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. From the three identified landslide episodes one is associated with a collapse volume ca. 4.4 km3. Numerical simulations considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami. An edifice current volume estimate is ca. 1.5 km3.Previous study exists in relationship to assessment of regional tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (run-up) in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. However this assessment was based on inferred volume of collapse material. We aim to firstly quantify potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA); secondly to assess first order run-ups and maximum inland inundation distance for Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, i.e. two important economic centers of the Lesser Antilles. In this framework we present for seven geomechanical models tested in the RSIA step maps of critical failure surface associated with factor of stability (Fs) for twelve sectors of 30° each; then we introduce maps of expected potential run-ups (run-up × the probability of failure at a sector) at the shoreline.The RSIA evaluates critical potential failure surface associated with Fs <1 as compared to areas of deficit/surplus of mass/volume identified on the volcanic edifice using (VolcanoFit 2.0 & SSAP 4.5). Tsunami sources characteristics are retrieved from numerical simulation using an hydraulic equations-based code (VolcFlow-Matlab). The tsunami propagation towards the coasts is computed using the open source a Boussinesq equations-based code (FUNWAVE) taking into account high order non linear effects including dissipation.

Scenarios for earthquake-generated tsunamis on a complex tectonic area of diffuse deformation and low velocity: The Alboran Sea, Western Mediterranean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alvarez-Gomez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Gonzalez, M.; Olabarrieta, Maitane; Carreno, E.

2011-01-01

The tsunami impact on the Spanish and North African coasts of the Alboran Sea generated by several reliable seismic tsunamigenic sources in this area was modeled. The tectonic setting is complex and a study of the potential sources from geological data is basic to obtain probable source characteristics. The tectonic structures considered in this study as potentially tsunamigenic are: the Alboran Ridge associated structures, the Carboneras Fault Zone and the Yusuf Fault Zone. We characterized 12 probable tsunamigenic seismic sources in the Alboran Basin based on the results of recent oceanographical studies. The strain rate in the area is low and therefore its seismicity is moderate and cannot be used to infer characteristics of the major seismic sources. These sources have been used as input for the numerical simulation of the wave propagation, based on the solution of the nonlinear shallow water equations through a finite-difference technique. We calculated the Maximum Wave Elevations, and Tsunami Travel Times using the numerical simulations. The results are shown as maps and profiles along the Spanish and African coasts. The sources associated with the Alboran Ridge show the maximum potential to generate damaging tsunamis, with maximum wave elevations in front of the coast exceeding 1.5 m. The Carboneras and Yusuf faults are not capable of generating disastrous tsunamis on their own, although their proximity to the coast could trigger landslides and associated sea disturbances. The areas which are more exposed to the impact of tsunamis generated in the Alboran Sea are the Spanish coast between Malaga and Adra, and the African coast between Alhoceima and Melilla.

Tsunami detection by high-frequency radar in British Columbia: performance assessment of the time-correlation algorithm for synthetic and real events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guérin, Charles-Antoine; Grilli, Stéphan T.; Moran, Patrick; Grilli, Annette R.; Insua, Tania L.

2018-05-01

The authors recently proposed a new method for detecting tsunamis using high-frequency (HF) radar observations, referred to as "time-correlation algorithm" (TCA; Grilli et al. Pure Appl Geophys 173(12):3895-3934, 2016a, 174(1): 3003-3028, 2017). Unlike standard algorithms that detect surface current patterns, the TCA is based on analyzing space-time correlations of radar signal time series in pairs of radar cells, which does not require inverting radial surface currents. This was done by calculating a contrast function, which quantifies the change in pattern of the mean correlation between pairs of neighboring cells upon tsunami arrival, with respect to a reference correlation computed in the recent past. In earlier work, the TCA was successfully validated based on realistic numerical simulations of both the radar signal and tsunami wave trains. Here, this algorithm is adapted to apply to actual data from a HF radar installed in Tofino, BC, for three test cases: (1) a simulated far-field tsunami generated in the Semidi Subduction Zone in the Aleutian Arc; (2) a simulated near-field tsunami from a submarine mass failure on the continental slope off of Tofino; and (3) an event believed to be a meteotsunami, which occurred on October 14th, 2016, off of the Pacific West Coast and was measured by the radar. In the first two cases, the synthetic tsunami signal is superimposed onto the radar signal by way of a current memory term; in the third case, the tsunami signature is present within the radar data. In light of these test cases, we develop a detection methodology based on the TCA, using a correlation contrast function, and show that in all three cases the algorithm is able to trigger a timely early warning.

Tsunamis along the Peru-Chile Trench: analysing the effect of co-seismic deformation on tsunami inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M. A.

2016-12-01

Large earthquakes occurring along the near-shore subduction zones have the potential of causing noticeable onshore co-seismic deformations. The onshore uplift and subsidence caused by the earthquake rupture can change the coastal land morphology and, therefore, control the tsunami impact. Along the Peru-Chile trench, where the occurrence of massive tsunamigenic earthquakes is quite frequent, the earthquake faults have important extent beneath the continent which results in significant seismic-induced deformation of the coastal zones as testified by the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule event. In this study, we investigate the effects of the seismic-induced onshore coastal deformation on the tsunami inundation for the Mw8.3 Illapel and the Mw8.8 Maule Chilean earthquakes that happened on September 16th, 2015 and February 27th, 2010, respectively. The study involves the relation between the co-seismic deformation and the tsunami impact in the near-field. For both studied tsunami events, we numerically simulate the near-field tsunami inundation with and without taking into account the earthquake rupture-induced changes on the coastal land morphology. We compare the simulated tsunami inundation extent and run-up with the field-survey data collected in previous works for both the 2015 Illapel and the 2010 Maule tsunamis. We find that the onshore component of the co-seismic deformations of the two Chilean subduction earthquakes lead to significant changes in coastal land morphology that mainly affect the inundation close to the source, which, therefore, explain the concentrated tsunami impact observed. This work received funding from project ASTARTE - Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe, Grant 603839, FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, and project TSUMAPS - NEAM, agreement number ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26.

Pyroclastic Flow Generated Tsunami Waves Detected by CALIPSO Borehole Strainmeters at Soufriere Hills, Montserrat During Massive Dome Collapse: Numerical Simulations and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Boskirk, E. J.; Voight, B.; Watts, P.; Widiwijayanti, C.; Mattioli, G. S.; Elsworth, D.; Hidayat, D.; Linde, A.; Malin, P.; Neuberg, J.; Sacks, S.; Shalev, E.; Sparks, R. J.; Young, S. R.

2004-12-01

The July 12-13, 2003 eruption (dome collapse plus explosions) of Soufriere Hills Volcano in Montserrat, WI, is the largest historical lava dome collapse with ˜120 million cubic meters of the dome lost. Pyroclastic flows entered the sea at 18:00 AST 12 July at the Tar River Valley (TRV) and continued until the early hours of 13 July. Low-amplitude tsunamis were reported at Antigua and Guadaloupe soon after the dome collapse. At the time of eruption, four CALIPSO borehole-monitoring stations were in the process of being installed, and three very-broad-band Sacks-Evertson dilatometers were operational and recorded the event at 50 sps. The strongest strain signals were recorded at the Trants site, 5 km north of the TRV entry zone, suggesting tsunami waves >1 m high. Debris strandlines closer to TRV recorded runup heights as much as 8 m. We test the hypothesis that the strain signal is related to tsunami waves generated by successive pyroclastic flows induced during the dome collapse. Tsunami simulation models have been generated using GEOWAVE, which uses simple physics to recreate waves generated by idealized pyroclastic flows entering the sea at TRV. Each simulation run contains surface wave amplitude gauges located in key positions to the three borehole sites. These simulated wave amplitudes and periods are compared quantitatively with the data recorded by the dilatometers and with field observations of wave runup, to elucidate the dynamics of pyroclastic flow tsunami genesis and its propagation in shallow ocean water.

The Fogo's Collapse-triggered Megatsunami: Evidence-calibrated Numerical Simulations of Tsunamigenic Potential and Coastal Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, Rachid; Ramalho, Ricardo S.; Quartau, Rui; Ramalho, Inês; Madeira, José; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-04-01

Volcanic Ocean Islands are very prominent and dynamic features involving several constructive and destructive phases during their life-cycles. Large-scale gravitational flank collapses are one of the most destructive processes and can present a major source of hazard, since it has been shown that these events are capable of triggering megatsunamis with significant coastal impact. The Fogo volcanic island, Cape Verde, presents evidence for giant edifice mass-wasting, as attested by both onshore and offshore evidence. A recent study by Ramalho et al. (2015) revealed the presence of tsunamigenic deposits that attest the generation of a megatsunami with devastating impact on the nearby Santiago Island, following Fogo's catastrophic collapse. Evidence from northern Santiago implies local minimum run-ups of 270 m, providing a unique physical framework to test collapse-triggered tsunami numerical simulations. In this study, we investigate the tsunamigenic potential associated with Fogo's flank collapse, and its impact on the Islands of the Cape Verde archipelago using field evidence-calibrated numerical simulations. We first reconstruct the pre-event island morphology, and then employ a multilayer numerical model to simulate the flank failure flow towards and under the sea, the ensuing tsunami generation, propagation and coastal impact. We use a digital elevation model that considers the coastline configuration and the sea level at the time of the event. Preliminary numerical modeling results suggest that collapsed volumes of 90-150 km3, in one single event, generate numerical solutions that are compatible with field evidence. Our simulations suggest that Fogo's collapse triggered a megatsunami that reached the coast of Santiago in 8 min, and with wave heights in excess of 250 m. The tsunami waves propagated with lower amplitudes towards the Cape Verde Islands located northward of Fogo. This study will contribute to more realistically assess the scale of risks associated with these extremely rare but very high impact natural disasters. This work is supported by the EU project ASTARTE -Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013, 6.4-3), the EU project TSUMAPS-NEAM -Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26, and the IF/01641/2015 MEGAWAVE - FCT project.

M9.1 Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Tsunami Inundation Modeling of Sequim Bay and Lopez Island, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. J.; Cakir, R.; Walsh, T. J.; LeVeque, R. J.; Adams, L. M.; Gonzalez, F. I.

2016-12-01

The Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent coastal zone are prone to tsunami hazard triggered by a M9+ Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. In addition to the numerous tsunami deposits observed on the outer coast, there is geological evidence for nine sandy or muddy tsunami layers deposited in last 2500-year period in a tidal marsh area of Discovery Bay, Northeastern Olympic Peninsula, Washington (Williams et al., 2005, The Holocene, v. 15, no. 1). Thus, it is important to assess the potential tsunami hazard due to a future M9+ CSZ earthquake event that may impact local communities in and near Discovery Bay area . In this study, we conducted tsunami simulations using Clawpack-GeoClaw and the earthquake source scenario M9.1 CSZ, designated as "L1" (Witter et al., 2011, Oregon DOGAMI Special Paper 43). A fine-resolution (1/3 arc-second) NOAA digital elevation model (DEM) was used to provide a high resolution tsunami inundation simulation in Sequim Bay (about 5 miles west of Discovery Bay), Clallam county and Lopez Island, San Juan County. The test gauges, set around major infrastructures and properties, provided estimates of wave height, wave velocity, and wave arrival time. The results will contribute to further improving mitigation planning and emergency response efforts of the counties.

Tsunami risk zoning in south-central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, M.

2010-12-01

The recent 2010 Chilean tsunami revealed the need to optimize methodologies for assessing the risk of disaster. In this context, modern techniques and criteria for the evaluation of the tsunami phenomenon were applied in the coastal zone of south-central Chile as a specific methodology for the zoning of tsunami risk. This methodology allows the identification and validation of a scenario of tsunami hazard; the spatialization of factors that have an impact on the risk; and the zoning of the tsunami risk. For the hazard evaluation, different scenarios were modeled by means of numerical simulation techniques, selecting and validating the results that better fit with the observed tsunami data. Hydrodynamic parameters of the inundation as well as physical and socioeconomic vulnerability aspects were considered for the spatialization of the factors that affect the tsunami risk. The tsunami risk zoning was integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) by means of multicriteria evaluation (MCE). The results of the tsunami risk zoning show that the local characteristics and their location, together with the concentration of poverty levels, establish spatial differentiated risk levels. This information builds the basis for future applied studies in land use planning that tend to minimize the risk levels associated to the tsunami hazard. This research is supported by Fondecyt 11090210.

Database of tsunami scenario simulations for Western Iberia: a tool for the TRIDEC Project Decision Support System for tsunami early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

2013-04-01

TRIDEC is a EU-FP7 Project whose main goal is, in general terms, to develop suitable strategies for the management of crises possibly arising in the Earth management field. The general paradigms adopted by TRIDEC to develop those strategies include intelligent information management, the capability of managing dynamically increasing volumes and dimensionality of information in complex events, and collaborative decision making in systems that are typically very loosely coupled. The two areas where TRIDEC applies and tests its strategies are tsunami early warning and industrial subsurface development. In the field of tsunami early warning, TRIDEC aims at developing a Decision Support System (DSS) that integrates 1) a set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors devoted to the detection and characterisation of possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitoring the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) large-volume databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios, 3) a proper overall system architecture. Two test areas are dealt with in TRIDEC: the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean. In this study, we focus on the western Iberian margin with special emphasis on the Portuguese coasts. The strategy adopted in TRIDEC plans to populate two different databases, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB), both of which deal only with earthquake-generated tsunamis. In the VSDB we simulate numerically few large-magnitude events generated by the major known tectonic structures in the study area. Heterogeneous slip distributions on the earthquake faults are introduced to simulate events as "realistically" as possible. The members of the VSDB represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC platform must be able to recognise and match during the early crisis management phase. On the other hand, the MSDB contains a very large number (order of thousands) of tsunami simulations performed starting from many different simple earthquake sources of different magnitudes and located in the "vicinity" of the virtual scenario earthquake. In the DSS perspective, the members of the MSDB have to be suitably combined based on the information coming from the sensor networks, and the results are used during the crisis evolution phase to forecast the degree of exposition of different coastal areas. We provide examples from both databases whose members are computed by means of the in-house software called UBO-TSUFD, implementing the non-linear shallow-water equations and solving them over a set of nested grids that guarantee a suitable spatial resolution (few tens of meters) in specific, suitably chosen, coastal areas.

Tsunami Risk for the Caribbean Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozelkov, A. S.; Kurkin, A. A.; Pelinovsky, E. N.; Zahibo, N.

2004-12-01

The tsunami problem for the coast of the Caribbean basin is discussed. Briefly the historical data of tsunami in the Caribbean Sea are presented. Numerical simulation of potential tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea is performed in the framework of the nonlinear-shallow theory. The tsunami wave height distribution along the Caribbean Coast is computed. These results are used to estimate the far-field tsunami potential of various coastal locations in the Caribbean Sea. In fact, five zones with tsunami low risk are selected basing on prognostic computations, they are: the bay "Golfo de Batabano" and the coast of province "Ciego de Avila" in Cuba, the Nicaraguan Coast (between Bluefields and Puerto Cabezas), the border between Mexico and Belize, the bay "Golfo de Venezuela" in Venezuela. The analysis of historical data confirms that there was no tsunami in the selected zones. Also, the wave attenuation in the Caribbean Sea is investigated; in fact, wave amplitude decreases in an order if the tsunami source is located on the distance up to 1000 km from the coastal location. Both factors wave attenuation and wave height distribution should be taken into account in the planned warning system for the Caribbean Sea.

Evaluation of the Relationship Between Coral Damage and Tsunami Dynamics; Case Study: 2009 Samoa Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilmen, Derya I.; Titov, Vasily V.; Roe, Gerard H.

2015-12-01

On September 29, 2009, an Mw = 8.1 earthquake at 17:48 UTC in Tonga Trench generated a tsunami that caused heavy damage across Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga islands. Tutuila island, which is located 250 km from the earthquake epicenter, experienced tsunami flooding and strong currents on the north and east coasts, causing 34 fatalities (out of 192 total deaths from this tsunami) and widespread structural and ecological damage. The surrounding coral reefs also suffered heavy damage. The damage was formally evaluated based on detailed surveys before and immediately after the tsunami. This setting thus provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the relationship between tsunami dynamics and coral damage. In this study, estimates of the maximum wave amplitudes and coastal inundation of the tsunami are obtained with the MOST model (T itov and S ynolakis, J. Waterway Port Coast Ocean Eng: pp 171, 1998; T itov and G onzalez, NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL PMEL 112:11, 1997), which is now the operational tsunami forecast tool used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The earthquake source function was constrained using the real-time deep-ocean tsunami data from three DART® (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting for Tsunamis) systems in the far field, and by tide-gauge observations in the near field. We compare the simulated run-up with observations to evaluate the simulation performance. We present an overall synthesis of the tide-gauge data, survey results of the run-up, inundation measurements, and the datasets of coral damage around the island. These data are used to assess the overall accuracy of the model run-up prediction for Tutuila, and to evaluate the model accuracy over the coral reef environment during the tsunami event. Our primary findings are that: (1) MOST-simulated run-up correlates well with observed run-up for this event ( r = 0.8), it tends to underestimated amplitudes over coral reef environment around Tutuila (for 15 of 31 villages, run-up is underestimated by more than 10 %; in only 5 was run-up overestimated by more than 10 %), and (2) the locations where the model underestimates run-up also tend to have experienced heavy or very heavy coral damage (8 of the 15 villages), whereas well-estimated run-up locations characteristically experience low or very low damage (7 of 11 villages). These findings imply that a numerical model may overestimate the energy loss of the tsunami waves during their interaction with the coral reef. We plan future studies to quantify this energy loss and to explore what improvements can be made in simulations of tsunami run-up when simulating coastal environments with fringing coral reefs.

Advancing our understanding of the onshore propagation of tsunami bores over rough surfaces through numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marras, S.; Suckale, J.; Eguzkitza, B.; Houzeaux, G.; Vázquez, M.; Lesage, A. C.

2016-12-01

The propagation of tsunamis in the open ocean has been studied in detail with many excellent numerical approaches available to researchers. Our understanding of the processes that govern the onshore propagation of tsunamis is less advanced. Yet, the reach of tsunamis on land is an important predictor of the damage associated with a given event, highlighting the need to investigate the factors that govern tsunami propagation onshore. In this study, we specifically focus on understanding the effect of bottom roughness at a variety of scales. The term roughness is to be understood broadly, as it represents scales ranging from small features like rocks, to vegetation, up to the size of larger structures and topography. In this poster, we link applied mathematics, computational fluid dynamics, and tsunami physics to analyze the small scales features of coastal hydrodynamics and the effect of roughness on the motion of tsunamis as they run up a sloping beach and propagate inland. We solve the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations of incompressible flows with free surface, which is tracked by a level set function in combination with an accurate re-distancing scheme. We discretize the equations via linear finite elements for space approximation and fully implicit time integration. Stabilization is achieved via the variational multiscale method whereas the subgrid scales for our large eddy simulations are modeled using a dynamically adaptive Smagorinsky eddy viscosity. As the geometrical characteristics of roughness in this study vary greatly across different scales, we implement a scale-dependent representation of the roughness elements. We model the smallest sub-grid scale roughness features by the use of a properly defined law of the wall. Furthermore, we utilize a Manning formula to compute the shear stress at the boundary. As the geometrical scales become larger, we resolve the geometry explicitly and compute the effective volume drag introduced by large scale immersed bodies. This study is a necessary step to verify and validate our model before proceeding further into the simulation of sediment transport in turbulent free surface flows. The simulation of such problems requires a space and time-dependent viscosity to model the effect of solid bodies transported by the incoming flow on onshore tsunami propagation.

Tsunami Modeling and Prediction Using a Data Assimilation Technique with Kalman Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnier, G.; Dunham, E. M.

2016-12-01

Earthquake-induced tsunamis cause dramatic damages along densely populated coastlines. It is difficult to predict and anticipate tsunami waves in advance, but if the earthquake occurs far enough from the coast, there may be enough time to evacuate the zones at risk. Therefore, any real-time information on the tsunami wavefield (as it propagates towards the coast) is extremely valuable for early warning systems. After the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, a dense tsunami-monitoring network (S-net) based on cabled ocean-bottom pressure sensors has been deployed along the Pacific coast in Northeastern Japan. Maeda et al. (GRL, 2015) introduced a data assimilation technique to reconstruct the tsunami wavefield in real time by combining numerical solution of the shallow water wave equations with additional terms penalizing the numerical solution for not matching observations. The penalty or gain matrix is determined though optimal interpolation and is independent of time. Here we explore a related data assimilation approach using the Kalman filter method to evolve the gain matrix. While more computationally expensive, the Kalman filter approach potentially provides more accurate reconstructions. We test our method on a 1D tsunami model derived from the Kozdon and Dunham (EPSL, 2014) dynamic rupture simulations of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. For appropriate choices of model and data covariance matrices, the method reconstructs the tsunami wavefield prior to wave arrival at the coast. We plan to compare the Kalman filter method to the optimal interpolation method developed by Maeda et al. (GRL, 2015) and then to implement the method for 2D.

Numerical simulation of the 2002 Northern Rhodes Slide (Greece) and evaluation of the generated tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaniboni, Filippo; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2013-04-01

Small landslides are very common along the submarine margins, due to steep slopes and continuous material deposition that increment mass instability and supply collapse occurrences, even without earthquake triggering. This kind of events can have relevant consequences when occurring close to the coast, because they are characterized by sudden change of velocity and relevant speed achievement, reflecting into high tsunamigenic potential. This is the case for example of the slide of Rhodes Island (Greece), named Northern Rhodes Slide (NRS), where unusual 3-4 m waves were registered on 24 March 2002, provoking some damage in the coastal stretch of the city of Rhodes (Papadopoulos et al., 2007). The event was not associated with earthquake occurrence, and eyewitnesses supported the hypothesis of a non-seismic source for the tsunami, placed 1 km offshore. Subsequent marine geophysical surveys (Sakellariou et al., 2002) evidenced the presence of several detachment niches at about 300-400 m depth along the northern steep slope, one of which can be considered responsible of the observed tsunami, fitting with the previously mentioned supposition. In this work, that is carried out in the frame of the European funded project NearToWarn, we evaluated the tsunami effects due to the NRS by means of numerical modelling: after having reconstructed the sliding body basing on morphological assumptions (obtaining an esteemed volume of 33 million m3), we simulated the sliding motion through the in-house built code UBO-BLOCK1, adopting a Lagrangian approach and splitting the sliding mass into a "chain" of interacting blocks. This provides the complete dynamics of the landslide, including the shape changes that relevantly influence the tsunami generation. After the application of an intermediate code, accounting for the slide impulse filtering through the water depth, the tsunami propagation in the sea around the island of Rhodes and up to near coasts of Turkey was simulated via the code UBO-TSUFD: this solves numerically the Navier-Stokes equation in the shallow water approximation, adopting a finite difference technique. It was then possible to estimate the most affected coastal stretches and to assess the effects of the NRS generated tsunami, comparing the computed wave heights with the observations. Papadopoulos G.A., Daskalaki E., Fokaefs A. (2007) Tsunamis generated by coastal and submarine landslides in the Mediterranean Sea. In: Lykousis V., Sakellariou D., Locat J. (eds.), Submarine Mass Movements and their Consequences, 415-422, Springer. Sakellariou D., Lykousis V., Rousakis G., Georgiou P. (2002). Slope failure and associated coastal erosion in tectonically active areas: The coastal zone of Rhodes city (Rhodos island) Greece. In: A. Yilmaz (ed.): Oceanography of Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea, 978-985, Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference Oct. 13-16, TUBITAK Publ., Ankara, Turkey.

Numerical simulations of debris drift from the Great Japan Tsunami of 2011 and their verification with observational reports.

PubMed

Maximenko, Nikolai; Hafner, Jan; Kamachi, Masafumi; MacFadyen, Amy

2018-05-02

A suite of five ocean models is used to simulate the movement of floating debris generated by the Great Japan Tsunami of 2011. This debris was subject to differential wind and wave-induced motion relative to the ambient current (often termed "windage") which is a function of the shape, size, and buoyancy of the individual debris items. Model solutions suggest that during the eastward drift across the North Pacific the debris became "stratified" by the wind so that objects with different windages took different paths: high windage items reached North America in large numbers the first year, medium windage items recirculated southwest toward Hawaii and Asia, and low windage items collected in the Subtropical Gyre, primarily in the so-called "garbage patch" area located northeast of Hawaii and known for high concentrations of microplastics. Numerous boats lost during the tsunami were later observed at sea and/or found on the west coast of North America: these observations are used to determine optimal windage values for scaling the model solutions. The initial number of boats set adrift during the tsunami is estimated at about 1000, while about 100 boats are projected to still float in year 2018 with an e-folding decay of 2 to 8 years. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2006-01-01

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis).

A Preliminary Tsunami Vulnerability Analysis for Yenikapi Region in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceren Cankaya, Zeynep; Suzen, Lutfi; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kolat, Cagil; Aytore, Betul; Zaytsev, Andrey

2015-04-01

One of the main requirements during post disaster recovery operations is to maintain proper transportation and fluent communication at the disaster areas. Ports and harbors are the main transportation hubs which must work with proper performance at all times especially after the disasters. Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis have major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Istanbul is a mega city with its various coastal utilities located at the north coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi region of Istanbul, there are critical coastal utilities and vulnerable coastal structures and critical activities occur daily. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, water front commercial and/or recreational structures are some of the examples of coastal utilization which are vulnerable against marine disasters. Therefore their vulnerability under tsunami or any other marine hazard to Yenikapi region of Istanbul is an important issue. In this study, a methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack is proposed with the applications to Yenikapi region. In the study, high resolution (1m) GIS database of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed by using GIS implementation. The bathymetry and topography database and the vector dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the study area are obtained for tsunami numerical modeling for the study area. GIS based tsunami vulnerability assessment is conducted by applying the Multi-criteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA). The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability parameters in the region due to two different classifications i) vulnerability of buildings/structures and ii) vulnerability of (human) evacuation are defined and scored. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and vulnerability (structural and human-based) at each node in Yenikapi. The results are presented at high resolution (1m) and discussed. Acknowledgements: Partial support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-C-12-14 of AFAD of Turkey, 108Y227 and 113M556 of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call, 2011K140210 of DPT, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region by SATREPS are acknowledged.

Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2013-12-01

Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field information, however tsunami hazard map based on numerical model should be this process. Tsunami scientists should not enter into the inhumane business by using tsunami numerical model. It includes accountability to society therefore scientists need scientific ethics and humanitarian attention. Should only tsunami scientist have responsibility for human life? Multidisciplinary approach is essential for mitigation like CEMA. I am taking on hazard map training course for disaster management officers from developing countries in JICA training course. I would like to discuss how to improve tsunami hazard map after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami experience in this presentation. A multidisciplinary exparts team of CEMA's tsunami hazard map

Simulation of tsunamis from great earthquakes on the cascadia subduction zone.

PubMed

Ng, M K; Leblond, P H; Murty, T S

1990-11-30

Large earthquakes occur episodically in the Cascadia subduction zone. A numerical model has been used to simulate and assess the hazards of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical earthquake of magnitude 8.5 associated with rupture of the northern sections of the subduction zone. Wave amplitudes on the outer coast are closely related to the magnitude of sea-bottom displacement (5.0 meters). Some amplification, up to a factor of 3, may occur in some coastal embayments. Wave amplitudes in the protected waters of Puget Sound and the Strait of Georgia are predicted to be only about one fifth of those estmated on the outer coast.

Source of 1629 Banda Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami: Implications for Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in Eastern Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Major, J. R.; Liu, Z.; Harris, R. A.; Fisher, T. L.

2011-12-01

Using Dutch records of geophysical events in Indonesia over the past 400 years, and tsunami modeling, we identify tsunami sources that have caused severe devastation in the past and are likely to reoccur in the near future. The earthquake history of Western Indonesia has received much attention since the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes and subsequent events. However, strain rates along a variety of plate boundary segments are just as high in eastern Indonesia where the earthquake history has not been investigated. Due to the rapid population growth in this region it is essential and urgent to evaluate its earthquake and tsunami hazards. Arthur Wichmann's 'Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago' shows that there were 30 significant earthquakes and 29 tsunami between 1629 to 1877. One of the largest and best documented is the great earthquake and tsunami effecting the Banda islands on 1 August, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15 m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after the earthquake. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use a numerical simulation of the tsunami to locate the potential sources of the 1629 mega-thrust event and evaluate the tsunami hazard in Eastern Indonesia. The numerical simulation was tested to establish the tsunami run-up amplification factor for this region by tsunami simulations of the 1992 Flores Island (Hidayat et al., 1995) and 2006 Java (Katoet al., 2007) earthquake events. The results yield a tsunami run-up amplification factor of 1.5 and 3, respectively. However, the Java earthquake is a unique case of slow rupture that was hardly felt. The fault parameters of recent earthquakes in the Banda region are used for the models. The modeling narrows the possibilities of mega-thrust events the size of the one in 1629 to the Seram and Timor Troughs. For the Seram Trough source a Mw 8.8 produces run-up heights in the Banda Islands of 15.5 m with an arrival time of 17 minuets. For a Timor Trough earthquake near the Tanimbar Islands a Mw 9.2 is needed to produce a 15 m run-up height with an arrival time of 25 minuets. The main problem with the Timor Trough source is that it predicts run-up heights in Ambon of 10 m, which would likely have been recorded. Therefore, we conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. No large earthquakes are reported along the Seram Trough for over 200 years although high rates of strain are measured across it. This study suggests that the earthquake triggers from this fault zone could be extremely devastating to Eastern Indonesia. We strive to raise the awareness to the local government to not underestimate the natural hazard of this region based on lessons learned from the 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Tohoku tsunamigenic mega-thrust earthquakes.

Tsunami Source Identification on the 1867 Tsunami Event Based on the Impact Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, T. R.

2014-12-01

The 1867 Keelung tsunami event has drawn significant attention from people in Taiwan. Not only because the location was very close to the 3 nuclear power plants which are only about 20km away from the Taipei city but also because of the ambiguous on the tsunami sources. This event is unique in terms of many aspects. First, it was documented on many literatures with many languages and with similar descriptions. Second, the tsunami deposit was discovered recently. Based on the literatures, earthquake, 7-meter tsunami height, volcanic smoke, and oceanic smoke were observed. Previous studies concluded that this tsunami was generated by an earthquake with a magnitude around Mw7.0 along the Shanchiao Fault. However, numerical results showed that even a Mw 8.0 earthquake was not able to generate a 7-meter tsunami. Considering the steep bathymetry and intense volcanic activities along the Keelung coast, one reasonable hypothesis is that different types of tsunami sources were existed, such as the submarine landslide or volcanic eruption. In order to confirm this scenario, last year we proposed the Tsunami Reverse Tracing Method (TRTM) to find the possible locations of the tsunami sources. This method helped us ruling out the impossible far-field tsunami sources. However, the near-field sources are still remain unclear. This year, we further developed a new method named 'Impact Intensity Analysis' (IIA). In the IIA method, the study area is divided into a sequence of tsunami sources, and the numerical simulations of each source is conducted by COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model) tsunami model. After that, the resulting wave height from each source to the study site is collected and plotted. This method successfully helped us to identify the impact factor from the near-field potential sources. The IIA result (Fig. 1) shows that the 1867 tsunami event was a multi-source event. A mild tsunami was trigged by a Mw7.0 earthquake, and then followed by the submarine landslide or volcanic events. A near-field submarine landslide and landslide at Mien-Hwa Canyon were the most possible scenarios. As for the volcano scenarios, the volcanic eruption located about 10 km away from Keelung with 2.5x108 m3 disturbed water volume might be a candidate. The detailed scenario results will be presented in the full paper.

Dynamics and early post-tsunami evolution of floating marine debris near Fukushima Daiichi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, John Philip; Ostrovsky, Lev; Yoshikawa, Yutaka; Komori, Satoru; Tamura, Hitoshi

2017-08-01

The devastating tsunami triggered by the Tōhoku-Oki earthquake of 11 March 2011 caused a crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station where it overtopped the seawall defences. On retreating, the tsunami carried loose debris and wreckage seaward and marshalled buoyant material into extensive plumes. Widespread concern over the fate of these and numerous other Tōhoku tsunami depositions prompted attempts to simulate debris dispersion throughout the wider Pacific. However, the effects of locally perturbed wind and wave fields, active Langmuir circulation and current-induced attrition determine a complex and poorly understood morphology for large floating agglomerations. Here we show that the early post-tsunami evolution of marine-debris plumes near Fukushima Daiichi was also shaped by near-surface wind modifications that took place above relatively calm (lower surface roughness) waters covered by surface films derived from oil and other contaminants. High-spatial-resolution satellite tracking reveals faster-than-expected floating-debris motions and invigorated plume evolution within these regions, while numerical modelling of turbulent air flow over the low-drag, film-covered surface predicts typically metre-per-second wind strengthening at centimetric heights, sufficient to explain the observed debris-speed increases. Wind restructuring probably stimulates the dispersion of flotsam from both biological and anthropogenic sources throughout a global ocean of highly variable surface roughness.

Impacts of tides on tsunami propagation due to potential Nankai Trough earthquakes in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Han Soo; Shimoyama, Tomohisa; Popinet, Stéphane

2015-10-01

The impacts of tides on extreme tsunami propagation due to potential Nankai Trough earthquakes in the Seto Inland Sea (SIS), Japan, are investigated through numerical experiments. Tsunami experiments are conducted based on five scenarios that consider tides at four different phases, such as flood, high, ebb, and low tides. The probes that were selected arbitrarily in the Bungo and Kii Channels show less significant effects of tides on tsunami heights and the arrival times of the first waves than those that experience large tidal ranges in inner basins and bays of the SIS. For instance, the maximum tsunami height and the arrival time at Toyomaesi differ by more than 0.5 m and nearly 1 h, respectively, depending on the tidal phase. The uncertainties defined in terms of calculated maximum tsunami heights due to tides illustrate that the calculated maximum tsunami heights in the inner SIS with standing tides have much larger uncertainties than those of two channels with propagating tides. Particularly in Harima Nada, the uncertainties due to the impacts of tides are greater than 50% of the tsunami heights without tidal interaction. The results recommend simulate tsunamis together with tides in shallow water environments to reduce the uncertainties involved with tsunami modeling and predictions for tsunami hazards preparedness. This article was corrected on 26 OCT 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

Tsunami Hockey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.

2013-12-01

An important issue that vexes tsunami warning centers (TWCs) is when to cancel a tsunami warning once it is in effect. Emergency managers often face a variety of pressures to allow the public to resume their normal activities, but allowing coastal populations to return too quickly can put them at risk. A TWC must, therefore, exercise caution when cancelling a warning. Kim and Whitmore (2013) show that in many cases a TWC can use the decay of tsunami oscillations in a harbor to forecast when its amplitudes will fall to safe levels. This technique should prove reasonably robust for local tsunamis (those that are potentially dangerous within only 100 km of their source region) and for regional tsunamis (whose danger is limited to within 1000km of the source region) as well. For ocean-crossing destructive tsunamis such as the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami, however, this technique may be inadequate. When a tsunami propagates across the ocean basin, it will encounter topographic obstacles such as seamount chains or coastlines, resulting in coherent reflections that can propagate great distances. When these reflections reach previously-impacted coastlines, they can recharge decaying tsunami oscillations and make them hazardous again. Warning center scientists should forecast sea-level records for 24 hours beyond the initial tsunami arrival in order to observe any potential reflections that may pose a hazard. Animations are a convenient way to visualize reflections and gain a broad geographic overview of their impacts. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has developed tools based on tsunami simulations using the RIFT tsunami forecast model. RIFT is a linear, parallelized numerical tsunami propagation model that runs very efficiently on a multi-CPU system (Wang et al, 2012). It can simulate 30-hours of tsunami wave propagation in the Pacific Ocean at 4 arc minute resolution in approximately 6 minutes of real time on a 12-CPU system. Constructing a 30-hour animation using 1 minute simulated time steps takes approximately 50 minutes on the same system. These animations are generated quickly enough to provide decision support for emergency managers whose coastlines may be impacted by the tsunami several hours later. Tsunami reflections can also aid in determining the source region for those tsunamis generated by non-seismic mechanisms without a clear source such as meteotsunamis, tsunamis generated by meteorological phenomena. A derecho that crossed the New Jersey coast and entered the Atlantic Ocean at approximately 1500 UTC June 13, 2013 generated a meteotsunami that struck the northeast coast of the US causing several injuries. A DART sensor off Montauk, NY, recorded tsunami waves approximately 200 minutes apart. We show how the arrival times of the tsunamis recorded by this DART can help to constrain the source region of the meteotsunami. We also examine other reflections produced by the Haida Gwaii 2012, Tohoku 2011, and other tsunamis.

Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koh, Hock Lye, E-mail: kohhl@ucsiuniversity.edu.my; Teh, Su Yean, E-mail: syteh@usm.my; Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che

The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre formore » Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.« less

Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

2017-08-01

Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

What is the fault that has generated the earthquake on 8 September 1905 in Calabria, Italy? Source models compared by tsunami data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano; Loreto, Maria Filomena; Facchin, Lorenzo

2014-05-01

The earthquake that the 8 September 1905 hit Calabria in southern Italy was the second Italian earthquake for magnitude in the last century. It destroyed many villages along the coast of the Gulf of Sant'Eufemia, caused more than 500 fatalities and has also generated a tsunami with non-destructive effects. The historical reports tell us that the tsunami caused major damage in the villages of Briatico, Bivona, Pizzo and Vibo Marina, located in the south part of the Sant'Eufemia gulf and minor damage to Tropea and to Scalea, this one being village located about 100 km far from the epicenter. Other reports include accounts of fishermen at sea during the tsunami. Further, the tsunami is visible on tide gauge records in Messina, Sicily, in Naples and in Civitavecchia, a harbour located to the north of Rome (Platania, 1907) In spite of the attention devoted by researchers to this case, until now, like for other tsunamigenic Italian earthquakes, the genetic structure of the earthquake is still not identified and debate is still open. In this context, tsunami simulations can provide contributions useful to find the source model more consistent with observational data. This approach was already followed by Piatanesi and Tinti (2002), who carried out numerical simulations of tsunamis from a number of local sources. In the last decade studies on this seismogenic area were int ensified resulting in new estimates for the 1905 earthquake magnitude (7.1 according to the CPTI11 catalogue) and in the suggestion of new source models. By using an improved tsunami simulation model, more accurate bathymetry data, this work tests the source models investigated by Piatanesi and Tinti (2002) and in addition the new fault models proposed by Cucci and Tertulliani (2010) and by Loreto et al. (2013). The simulations of the tsunami are calculated by means of the code, UBO-TSUFD, that solves the linear equations of Navier-Stokes in approximation of shallow water with the finite-difference technique, while the initial conditions are calculated via Okada's formula. The key-result used to test the models against the data is the maximum height of the tsunami calculated close to the shore at a minimum depth of 5m corrected using the values of the initial coseismic field deformation.

Incorporation of experimentally derived friction laws in numerical simulations of earthquake generated tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Shane; Spagnuolo, Elena; Lorito, Stefano; Di Toro, Giulio; Scala, Antonio; Festa, Gaetano; Nielsen, Stefan; Piatanesi, Alessio; Romano, Fabrizio; Aretusini, Stefano

2016-04-01

Seismological, tsunami and geodetic observations have shown that subduction zones are complex systems where the properties of earthquake rupture vary with depth. For example nucleation and high frequency radiation generally occur at depth but low frequency radiation and large tsunami-genic slip appear to occur in the shallow crustal depth. Numerical simulations used to describe these features predominantly use standardised theoretical equations or experimental observations often assuming that their validity extends to all slip-rates, lithologies and tectonic environments. However recent rotary-shear experiments performed on a range of diverse materials and experimental conditions highlighted the large variability of the evolution of friction during slipping pointing to a more complex relationship between material type, slip rate and normal stress. Simulating dynamic rupture using a 2D spectral element methodology on a Tohoku like fault, we apply experimentally derived friction laws (i.e. thermal slip distance friction law, Di Toro et al. 2011) Choice of parameters for the friction law are based on expected material type (e.g. cohesive and non-cohesive clay rich material representative of an accretionary wedge), the normal stress which is controlled by the interaction between the regional stress field and the fault geometry. The shear stress distribution on the fault plane is fractal with the yield stress dependent on the static coefficient of friction and the normal stress, parameters that are dependent on the material type and geometry. We use metrics such as the slip distribution, ground motion and fracture energy to explore the effect of frictional behaviour, fault geometry and stress perturbations and its potential role in tsunami generation. Preliminary results will be presented. This research is funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe) and by the ERC CoG NOFEAR project 614705

Specification of Tectonic Tsunami Sources Along the Eastern Aleutian Island Arc and Alaska Peninsula for Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Freymueller, J. T.; Koehler, R.

2013-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Information Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska along several segments of the Aleutian Megathrust, each having a unique seismic history and tsunami generation potential. Accurate identification and characterization of potential tsunami sources is a critical component of our project. As demonstrated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami, correct estimation of the maximum size event for a given segment of the subduction zone is particularly important. In that event, unexpectedly large slip occurred approximately updip of the epicenter of the main shock, based on seafloor GPS and seafloor pressure gage observations, generating a much larger tsunami than anticipated. This emphasizes the importance of the detailed knowledge of the region-specific subduction processes, and using the most up-to-date geophysical data and research models that define the magnitude range of possible future tsunami events. Our study area extends from the eastern half of the 1957 rupture zone to Kodiak Island, covering the 1946 and 1938 rupture areas, the Shumagin gap, and the western part of the 1964 rupture area. We propose a strategy for generating worst-case credible tsunami scenarios for locations that have a short or nonexistent paleoseismic/paleotsunami record, and in some cases lack modern seismic and GPS data. The potential tsunami scenarios are built based on a discretized plate interface model fit to the Slab 1.0 model geometry. We employ estimates of slip deficit along the Aleutian Megathrust from GPS campaign surveys, the Slab 1.0 interface surface, empirical magnitude-slip relationships, and a numerical code that distributes slip among the subfault elements, calculates coseismic deformations and solves the shallow water equations of tsunami propagation and runup. We define hypothetical asperities along the megathrust and in down-dip direction, and perform a set of sensitivity model runs to identify coseismic deformation patterns resulting in highest runup at a given community. Because of the extra fine discretization of the interface, we can prescribe variable slip patterns, using simple parameters to describe slip variations in the along-strike and down-dip directions. Since it was demonstrated by studies of the 1964 tsunami that changes in slip distribution result in significant variations in the local tsunami wave field, we expect that the near-field tsunami runup in target communities will be highly sensitive to variability of slip along the rupture area. We perform simulations for each source scenario using AEIC's numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by local emergency planners.

Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damages by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, K.; Imamura, F.; Koshimura, S.; Yanagisawa, H.

2008-05-01

On 26 December 2004, one of the largest tsunamis in human history (the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) struck coastal areas of countries surrounding the Indian Ocean, causing severe property damage and loss of life and causing us to think anew about the fearful consequences of a tsunami disaster. The tsunami devastated more than 10 countries around the ocean including Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand. Since its energy remains almost constant, the tsunami wave height grows tremendously in shallow water. It ranged in runups of ~48m on the western shore of Sumatra, ~18m in Thailand, and ~15m in Sri Lanka. The tsunami killed nearly 230,000 people, including visitors from foreign countries, resulting in great economic losses. The tsunami was also affected coastal environment at these countries and induced severe topographic change, and damages to the marine ecosystems as well as vegetations on land. Immediately following the tsunami, number of research teams has investigated damages of environment and human communities by tsunamis. Numerical analyses of tsunami propagation have also been carried out to understand the behavior and wave properties of tsunamis. However, there are few studies that focused on the integration of the field observations and numerical results, nevertheless that such analysis is critically important to evaluate the environmental and human damages by the tsunami. In this contribution, we first review damages to the environment and humans due to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Thailand, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka based on our field observations, and then we evaluate these damages based on high resolution numerical results. For example, we conducted field observation as well as high-resolution (17 m grid cells) numerical calculation for damages of corals (reef rocks) and mangroves at Pakarang Cape, Thailand. We found that hundreds of reef rocks were emplaced on the tidal bench, and 70 % of mangroves were destroyed at the cape. Our numerical results further clarified that these damages are well explained by the calculated hydraulic force of tsunamis. This kind of analysis that integrated the observation and numerical results is important to evaluate environmental and human damages quantitatively, and to make a future disaster prevention plan.

Unusually large earthquakes inferred from tsunami deposits along the Kuril trench

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nanayama, F.; Satake, K.; Furukawa, R.; Shimokawa, K.; Atwater, B.F.; Shigeno, K.; Yamaki, S.

2003-01-01

The Pacific plate converges with northeastern Eurasia at a rate of 8-9 m per century along the Kamchatka, Kuril and Japan trenches. Along the southern Kuril trench, which faces the Japanese island of Hokkaido, this fast subduction has recurrently generated earthquakes with magnitudes of up to ???8 over the past two centuries. These historical events, on rupture segments 100-200 km long, have been considered characteristic of Hokkaido's plate-boundary earthquakes. But here we use deposits of prehistoric tsunamis to infer the infrequent occurrence of larger earthquakes generated from longer ruptures. Many of these tsunami deposits form sheets of sand that extend kilometres inland from the deposits of historical tsunamis. Stratigraphic series of extensive sand sheets, intercalated with dated volcanic-ash layers, show that such unusually large tsunamis occurred about every 500 years on average over the past 2,000-7,000 years, most recently ???350 years ago. Numerical simulations of these tsunamis are best explained by earthquakes that individually rupture multiple segments along the southern Kuril trench. We infer that such multi-segment earthquakes persistently recur among a larger number of single-segment events.

Comparison and Computational Performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST Models for the LANTEX 2013 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Vida, Jose M.; Macías, Jorge; Mercado, Aurelio; Ortega, Sergio; Castro, Manuel J.

2017-04-01

Tsunami-HySEA model is used to simulate the Caribbean LANTEX 2013 scenario (LANTEX is the acronym for Large AtlaNtic Tsunami EXercise, which is carried out annually). The numerical simulation of the propagation and inundation phases, is performed with both models but using different mesh resolutions and nested meshes. Some comparisons with the MOST tsunami model available at the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) are made. Both models compare well for propagating tsunami waves in open sea, producing very similar results. In near-shore shallow waters, Tsunami-HySEA should be compared with the inundation version of MOST, since the propagation version of MOST is limited to deeper waters. Regarding the inundation phase, a 1 arc-sec (approximately 30 m) resolution mesh covering all of Puerto Rico, is used, and a three-level nested meshes technique implemented. In the inundation phase, larger differences between model results are observed. Nevertheless, the most striking difference resides in computational time; Tsunami-HySEA is coded using the advantages of GPU architecture, and can produce a 4 h simulation in a 60 arcsec resolution grid for the whole Caribbean Sea in less than 4 min with a single general-purpose GPU and as fast as 11 s with 32 general-purpose GPUs. In the inundation stage with nested meshes, approximately 8 hours of wall clock time is needed for a 2-h simulation in a single GPU (versus more than 2 days for the MOST inundation, running three different parts of the island—West, Center, East—at the same time due to memory limitations in MOST). When domain decomposition techniques are finally implemented by breaking up the computational domain into sub-domains and assigning a GPU to each sub-domain (multi-GPU Tsunami-HySEA version), we show that the wall clock time significantly decreases, allowing high-resolution inundation modelling in very short computational times, reducing, for example, if eight GPUs are used, the wall clock time to around 1 hour. Besides, these computational times are obtained using general-purpose GPU hardware.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the Hudson River Estuary based on dynamic tsunami-tide simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shelby, Michael; Grilli, Stéphan T.; Grilli, Annette R.

2016-12-01

This work is part of a tsunami inundation mapping activity carried out along the US East Coast since 2010, under the auspice of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program (NTHMP). The US East Coast features two main estuaries with significant tidal forcing, which are bordered by numerous critical facilities (power plants, major harbors,...) as well as densely built low-level areas: Chesapeake Bay and the Hudson River Estuary (HRE). HRE is the object of this work, with specific focus on assessing tsunami hazard in Manhattan, the Hudson and East River areas. In the NTHMP work, inundation maps are computed as envelopes of maximum surface elevation along the coast and inland, by simulating the impact of selected probable maximum tsunamis (PMT) in the Atlantic ocean margin and basin. At present, such simulations assume a static reference level near shore equal to the local mean high water (MHW) level. Here, instead we simulate maximum inundation in the HRE resulting from dynamic interactions between the incident PMTs and a tide, which is calibrated to achieve MHW at its maximum level. To identify conditions leading to maximum tsunami inundation, each PMT is simulated for four different phases of the tide and results are compared to those obtained for a static reference level. We first separately simulate the tide and the three PMTs that were found to be most significant for the HRE. These are caused by: (1) a flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano (CVV) in the Canary Islands (with a 80 km3 volume representing the most likely extreme scenario); (2) an M9 coseismic source in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT); and (3) a large submarine mass failure (SMF) in the Hudson River canyon of parameters similar to the 165 km3 historical Currituck slide, which is used as a local proxy for the maximum possible SMF. Simulations are performed with the nonlinear and dispersive long wave model FUNWAVE-TVD, in a series of nested grids of increasing resolution towards the coast, by one-way coupling. Four levels of nested grids are used, from a 1 arc-min spherical coordinate grid in the deep ocean down to a 39-m Cartesian grid in the HRE. Bottom friction coefficients in the finer grids are calibrated for the tide to achieve the local spatially averaged MHW level at high tide in the HRE. Combined tsunami-tide simulations are then performed for four phases of the tide corresponding to each tsunami arriving at Sandy Hook (NJ): 1.5 h ahead, concurrent with, 1.5 h after, and 3 h after the local high tide. These simulations are forced along the offshore boundary of the third-level grid by linearly superposing time series of surface elevation and horizontal currents of the calibrated tide and each tsunami wave train; this is done in deep enough water for a linear superposition to be accurate. Combined tsunami-tide simulations are then performed with FUNWAVE-TVD in this and the finest nested grids. Results show that, for the 3 PMTs, depending on the tide phase, the dynamic simulations lead to no or to a slightly increased inundation in the HRE (by up to 0.15 m depending on location), and to larger currents than for the simulations over a static level; the CRT SMF proxy tsunami is the PMT leading to maximum inundation in the HRE. For all tide phases, nonlinear interactions between tide and tsunami currents modify the elevation, current, and celerity of tsunami wave trains, mostly in the shallower water areas of the HRE where bottom friction dominates, as compared to a linear superposition of wave elevations and currents. We note that, while dynamic simulations predict a slight increase in inundation, this increase may be on the same order as, or even less than sources of uncertainty in the modeling of tsunami sources, such as their initial water elevation, and in bottom friction and bathymetry used in tsunami grids. Nevertheless, results in this paper provide insight into the magnitude and spatial variability of tsunami propagation and impact in the complex inland waterways surrounding New York City, and of their modification by dynamic tidal effects. We conclude that changes in inundation resulting from the inclusion of a dynamic tide in the specific case of the HRE, although of scientific interest, are not significant for tsunami hazard assessment and that the standard approach of specifying a static reference level equal to MHW is conservative. However, in other estuaries with similarly complex bathymetry/topography and stronger tidal currents, a simplified static approach might not be appropriate.

Shallow slip amplification and enhanced tsunami hazard unravelled by dynamic simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes

PubMed Central

Murphy, S.; Scala, A.; Herrero, A.; Lorito, S.; Festa, G.; Trasatti, E.; Tonini, R.; Romano, F.; Molinari, I.; Nielsen, S.

2016-01-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced an unexpected large amount of shallow slip greatly contributing to the ensuing tsunami. How frequent are such events? How can they be efficiently modelled for tsunami hazard? Stochastic slip models, which can be computed rapidly, are used to explore the natural slip variability; however, they generally do not deal specifically with shallow slip features. We study the systematic depth-dependence of slip along a thrust fault with a number of 2D dynamic simulations using stochastic shear stress distributions and a geometry based on the cross section of the Tohoku fault. We obtain a probability density for the slip distribution, which varies both with depth, earthquake size and whether the rupture breaks the surface. We propose a method to modify stochastic slip distributions according to this dynamically-derived probability distribution. This method may be efficiently applied to produce large numbers of heterogeneous slip distributions for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. Using numerous M9 earthquake scenarios, we demonstrate that incorporating the dynamically-derived probability distribution does enhance the conditional probability of exceedance of maximum estimated tsunami wave heights along the Japanese coast. This technique for integrating dynamic features in stochastic models can be extended to any subduction zone and faulting style. PMID:27725733

Performance Comparison of NAMI DANCE and FLOW-3D® Models in Tsunami Propagation, Inundation and Currents using NTHMP Benchmark Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velioglu Sogut, Deniz; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet

2018-06-01

Field observations provide valuable data regarding nearshore tsunami impact, yet only in inundation areas where tsunami waves have already flooded. Therefore, tsunami modeling is essential to understand tsunami behavior and prepare for tsunami inundation. It is necessary that all numerical models used in tsunami emergency planning be subject to benchmark tests for validation and verification. This study focuses on two numerical codes, NAMI DANCE and FLOW-3D®, for validation and performance comparison. NAMI DANCE is an in-house tsunami numerical model developed by the Ocean Engineering Research Center of Middle East Technical University, Turkey and Laboratory of Special Research Bureau for Automation of Marine Research, Russia. FLOW-3D® is a general purpose computational fluid dynamics software, which was developed by scientists who pioneered in the design of the Volume-of-Fluid technique. The codes are validated and their performances are compared via analytical, experimental and field benchmark problems, which are documented in the ``Proceedings and Results of the 2011 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Model Benchmarking Workshop'' and the ``Proceedings and Results of the NTHMP 2015 Tsunami Current Modeling Workshop". The variations between the numerical solutions of these two models are evaluated through statistical error analysis.

A numerical study of tsunami wave impact and run-up on coastal cliffs using a CIP-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xizeng; Chen, Yong; Huang, Zhenhua; Hu, Zijun; Gao, Yangyang

2017-05-01

There is a general lack of understanding of tsunami wave interaction with complex geographies, especially the process of inundation. Numerical simulations are performed to understand the effects of several factors on tsunami wave impact and run-up in the presence of gentle submarine slopes and coastal cliffs, using an in-house code, a constrained interpolation profile (CIP)-based model. The model employs a high-order finite difference method, the CIP method, as the flow solver; utilizes a VOF-type method, the tangent of hyperbola for interface capturing/slope weighting (THINC/SW) scheme, to capture the free surface; and treats the solid boundary by an immersed boundary method. A series of incident waves are arranged to interact with varying coastal geographies. Numerical results are compared with experimental data and good agreement is obtained. The influences of gentle submarine slope, coastal cliff and incident wave height are discussed. It is found that the tsunami amplification factor varying with incident wave is affected by gradient of cliff slope, and the critical value is about 45°. The run-up on a toe-erosion cliff is smaller than that on a normal cliff. The run-up is also related to the length of a gentle submarine slope with a critical value of about 2.292 m in the present model for most cases. The impact pressure on the cliff is extremely large and concentrated, and the backflow effect is non-negligible. Results of our work are highly precise and helpful in inverting tsunami source and forecasting disaster.

Modeling of influence from remote tsunami at the coast of Sakhalin and Kuriles islands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaytsev, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet; Chernov, Anton; Kostenko, Irina

2010-05-01

The Far East coast of Russia (Kuriles islands, Sakhalin, Kamchatka) is the area where the dangerous natural phenomena as tsunami is located. A lot of works are established for decreasing of tsunami's influence. Tsunami mapping and mitigation strategy are given for some regions. The centers of Tsunami Warning System are opened, enough plenty of records of a tsunami are collected. The properties of local tsunami are studied well. At the same time, the catastrophic event of the Indonesian tsunami, which had happened in December, 2004, when the sufficient waves have reached the coasts of Africa and South America, it is necessary to note, that the coats, which was far from the epicenter of earthquakes can be effected by catastrophic influence. Moreover, it is practically unique case, when using Tsunami Warning System can reduce the number of human victims to zero. Development of the computer technologies, numerical methods for the solution of systems of the nonlinear differential equations makes computer modeling real and hypothetical tsunamis is the basic method of studying features of distribution of waves in water areas and their influence at coast. Numerical modeling of distribution of historical tsunami from the seismic sources in the Pacific Ocean was observed. The events with an epicenter, remote from Far East coast of Russia were considered. The estimation of the remote tsunami waves propagation was developed. Impact force of tsunamis was estimated. The features of passage of tsunami through Kuril Straits were considered. The spectral analysis of records in settlements of Sakhalin and Kuriles is lead. NAMI-DANCE program was used for tsunami propagation numerical modeling. It is used finite element numerical schemes for Shallow Water Equations and Nonlinear-Dispersive Equations, with use Nested Grid.

How did the AD 1755 tsunami impact on sand barriers across the southern coast of Portugal?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Pedro J. M.; Costas, Susana; González-Villanueva, R.; Oliveira, M. A.; Roelvink, D.; Andrade, C.; Freitas, M. C.; Cunha, P. P.; Martins, A.; Buylaert, J.-P.; Murray, A.

2016-09-01

Tsunamis are highly energetic events that may destructively impact the coast. Resolving the degree of coastal resilience to tsunamis is extremely difficult and sometimes impossible. In part, our understanding is constrained by the limited number of contemporaneous examples and by the high dynamism of coastal systems. In fact, long-term changes of coastal systems can mask the evidence of past tsunamis, leaving us a short or incomplete sedimentary archive. Here, we present a multidisciplinary approach involving sedimentological, geomorphological and geophysical analyses and numerical modelling of the AD 1755 tsunami flood on a coastal segment located within the southern coast of Portugal. In particular, the work focuses on deciphering the impact of the tsunami waves over a coastal sand barrier enclosing two lowlands largely inundated by the tsunami flood. Erosional features documented by geophysical data were assigned to the AD 1755 event with support of sedimentological and age estimation results. Furthermore, these features allowed the calibration of the simulation settings to reconstruct the local conditions and establish the run-up range of the AD 1755 tsunami when it hit this coast (6-8 m above mean sea level). Our work highlights the usefulness of erosional imprints preserved in the sediment record to interpret the impact of the extreme events on sand barriers.

Development of new tsunami detection algorithms for high frequency radars and application to tsunami warning in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grilli, S. T.; Guérin, C. A.; Shelby, M. R.; Grilli, A. R.; Insua, T. L.; Moran, P., Jr.

2016-12-01

A High-Frequency (HF) radar was installed by Ocean Networks Canada in Tofino, BC, to detect tsunamis from far- and near-field seismic sources; in particular, from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. This HF radar can measure ocean surface currents up to a 70-85 km range, depending on atmospheric conditions, based on the Doppler shift they cause in ocean waves at the Bragg frequency. In earlier work, we showed that tsunami currents must be at least 0.15 m/s to be directly detectable by a HF radar, when considering environmental noise and background currents (from tide/mesoscale circulation). This limits a direct tsunami detection to shallow water areas where currents are sufficiently strong due to wave shoaling and, hence, to the continental shelf. It follows that, in locations with a narrow shelf, warning times using a direct inversion method will be small. To detect tsunamis in deeper water, beyond the continental shelf, we proposed a new algorithm that does not require directly inverting currents, but instead is based on observing changes in patterns of spatial correlations of the raw radar signal between two radar cells located along the same wave ray, after time is shifted by the tsunami propagation time along the ray. A pattern change will indicate the presence of a tsunami. We validated this new algorithm for idealized tsunami wave trains propagating over a simple seafloor geometry in a direction normally incident to shore. Here, we further develop, extend, and validate the algorithm for realistic case studies of seismic tsunami sources impacting Vancouver Island, BC. Tsunami currents, computed with a state-of-the-art long wave model are spatially averaged over cells aligned along individual wave rays, located within the radar sweep area, obtained by solving the wave geometric optic equation; for long waves, such rays and tsunami propagation times along those are only function of the seafloor bathymetry, and hence can be precalculated for different incident tsunami directions. A model simulating the radar backscattered signal in space and time as a function of simulated tsunami currents is applied to the sweep area. Numerical experiments show that the new algorithm can detect a realistic tsunami further offshore than a direct detection method. Correlation thresholds for tsunami detection will be derived from the results.

Numerical study of breakwater failure due to tsunami-like undular bore impacts: The case of the port of Soma.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Medina, Manuel; Morichon, Denis; Abadie, Stephane; Le Roy, Sylvestre; Lemoine, Anne

2017-04-01

The Tohoku tsunami, that impacted the Japanese coast in 2011, caused great damages on many offshore vertical breakwaters ranging from the erosion of the rubble mound to the partial displacement or total collapse of caissons. The breakwater failure mechanisms were function of the tsunami wave types that vary along the Japanese coast according to the bathymetry features. The Iwate coast, characterized by deep water depths and steep slopes, was mainly impacted by tsunami overflow leading in particular to the failure of the world's deepest breakwater of Kamaishi. In the shallow waters of the Sendai bay, observations showed that breakwaters protecting harbor entrances were impacted by short waves train resembling to undular bore. This work aims to investigate this latter type of tsunami wave impacts that are less reported in the literature. We chose to focus on the highly damaged offshore breakwater of Soma, located in the south part of the Sendai bay. The hydrodynamics conditions during the tsunami impact are investigated using the VARANS Thetis code (Desombre et al., 2012), which allows to simulate both the free surface flow and the flow inside the rubble mound simulated by a porous medium. The model is forced at the offshore boundaries by the Funwave Boussinesq code that describes the transformation of the tsunami waves from the source to the generation of undular bores in shallow waters. The study includes the computation of forces acting on the caissons. We discuss the relevance of describing the hydrodynamics at the short wave scale to assess breakwater stability in the course of tsunami-like undular bore impact. References Desombre, J., Morichon, D., & Mory, M. (2012). SIMULTANEOUS SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE AIR AND WATER FLOWS MODELLING IN THE SWASH ZONE. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(33), 56.

Tsunami-HySEA model validation for tsunami current predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macías, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; González-Vida, José Manuel; Ortega, Sergio

2016-04-01

Model ability to compute and predict tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be produced by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave height is small. Besides, an accurate simulation of tsunami flow velocities and accelerations is fundamental for advancing in the study of tsunami sediment transport. These considerations made the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) proposing a benchmark exercise focussed on modeling and simulating tsunami currents. Until recently, few direct measurements of tsunami velocities were available to compare and to validate model results. After Tohoku 2011 many current meters measurement were made, mainly in harbors and channels. In this work we present a part of the contribution made by the EDANYA group from the University of Malaga to the NTHMP workshop organized at Portland (USA), 9-10 of February 2015. We have selected three out of the five proposed benchmark problems. Two of them consist in real observed data from the Tohoku 2011 event, one at Hilo Habour (Hawaii) and the other at Tauranga Bay (New Zealand). The third one consists in laboratory experimental data for the inundation of Seaside City in Oregon. Acknowledgements: This research has been partially supported by the Junta de Andalucía research project TESELA (P11-RNM7069) and the Spanish Government Research project DAIFLUID (MTM2012-38383-C02-01) and Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Excelencia Andalucía TECH. The GPU and multi-GPU computations were performed at the Unit of Numerical Methods (UNM) of the Research Support Central Services (SCAI) of the University of Malaga.

The El Salvador and Philippines Tsunamis of August 2012: Insights from Sea Level Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji

2014-12-01

We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August ( Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August ( Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length.

Shallow water models as tool for tsunami current predictions in ports and harbors. Validation with Tohoku 2011 field data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Sr.; Macias Sanchez, J.; Castro, M. J.; Ortega, S.

2015-12-01

Model ability to compute and predict tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be produced by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave height is small. Besides, an accurate simulation of tsunami flow velocities and accelerations is fundamental for advancing in the study of tsunami sediment transport. These considerations made the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) proposing a benchmark exercise focused on modeling and simulating tsunami currents. Until recently, few direct measurements of tsunami velocities were available to compare and to validate model results. After Tohoku 2011 many current meters measurement were made, mainly in harbors and channels. In this work we present a part of the contribution made by the EDANYA group from the University of Malaga to the NTHMP workshop organized at Portland (USA), 9-10 of February 2015. We have selected three out of the five proposed benchmark problems. Two of them consist in real observed data from the Tohoku 2011 event, one at Hilo Habour (Hawaii) and the other at Tauranga Bay (New Zealand). The third one consists in laboratory experimental data for the inundation of Seaside City in Oregon. For this model validation the Tsunami-HySEA model, developed by EDANYA group, was used. The overall conclusion that we could extract from this validation exercise was that the Tsunami-HySEA model performed well in all benchmark problems proposed. The greater spatial variability in tsunami velocity than wave height makes it more difficult its precise numerical representation. The larger variability in velocities is likely a result of the behaviour of the flow as it is channelized and as it flows around bathymetric highs and structures. In the other hand wave height do not respond as strongly to chanelized flow as current velocity.

Numerical modelling of rapid, flow-like landslides across 3-D terrains: a Tsunami Squares approach to El Picacho landslide, El Salvador, September 19, 1982

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiajia; Ward, Steven N.; Xiao, Lili

2015-06-01

Flow-like landslides are rapidly moving fluid-solid mixtures that can cause significant destruction along paths that run far from their original sources. Existing models for run out prediction and motion simulation of flow-like landslides have many limitations. In this paper, we develop a new method named `Tsunami Squares' to simulate the generation, propagation and stoppage of flow-like landslides based on conservation of volume and momentum. Landslide materials in the new method form divisible squares that are displaced, then further fractured. The squares move under the influence of gravity-driven acceleration and suffer decelerations due to basal and dynamic frictions. Distinctively, this method takes into account solid and fluid mechanics, particle interactions and flow regime transitions. We apply this approach to simulate the 1982 El Picacho landslide in San Salvador, capital city of El Salvador. Landslide products from Tsunami Squares such as run out distance, velocities, erosion and deposition depths and impacted area agree well with field investigated and eyewitness data.

Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.

2017-12-01

Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

New contributions to the debate on the cause of the January 11th, 1693 tsunami in eastern Sicily (Italy): earthquake or offshore landslide source (or may be both)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Argnani, A.

2007-12-01

Eastern Sicily is among the most exposed regions in Italy and in the whole Mediterranean to tsunami hazard and risk. The historical tsunamis recorded here were generally associated to moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes. The largest tsunami documented in the area occurred on January 11th, 1693. It followed the highest-magnitude earthquake (7.4) of the Italian seismic history. The tsunami, whose first significant motion was a retreat along the entire eastern Sicily coastline, produced the most devastating effects at Augusta (15 meters run-up) and Catania, being relevant at Siracusa and Messina too. A lively debate exists on whether the earthquake was the only source of the tsunami, or other causes (such as submarine landslides, possibly triggered by the earthquake) contributed to the tsunami generation. In the framework of the EC funded project TRANSFER, we investigate both hypotheses, starting from suitable onshore and offshore faults as well as from offshore landslide bodies, and hence simulating numerically the ensuing tsunami and comparing the results with the available historical information. We base on the results obtained during recent offshore surveys, in particular the multichannel seismic survey MESC2001, carried out in year 2001 on board the R/V Urania of the Italian National Council of Researches (CNR), which mapped both active normal faults and a number of possible landslide bodies along the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, the most prominent tectonic structure found just few kilometres offshore eastern Sicily. From the modelling point of view, the initial condition for the earthquake- generated tsunamis coincides with the vertical coseismic deformation of the seafloor. Instead, the landslide motion is simulated through the Lagrangian block model UBO-BLOCK2, developed at the University of Bologna. Finally, the finite-element code UBO-TSUFE, implemented by the same research team, is used to simulate the tsunami generation and propagation. The main conclusions are: 1) if the earthquake is postulated to be the only responsible for the tsunami, then the historical information can be reproduced only by assuming an offshore tectonic source; 2) taking into account the largest of the mapped landslides, we are able to reproduce quite satisfactorily both the first polarity and the size distribution of the tsunami; 3) we cannot rule out the idea that there was a concurrent contribution of the earthquake and of the landslide in generating the tsunami.

The July 17, 2006 Java Tsunami: Tsunami Modeling and the Probable Causes of the Extreme Run-up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kongko, W.; Schlurmann, T.

2009-04-01

On 17 July 2006, an Earthquake magnitude Mw 7.8 off the south coast of west Java, Indonesia generated tsunami that affected over 300 km of south Java coastline and killed more than 600 people. Observed tsunami heights and field measurement of run-up distributions were uniformly scattered approximately 5 to 7 m along a 200 km coastal stretch; remarkably, a locally focused tsunami run-up height exceeding 20 m at Nusakambangan Island has been observed. Within the framework of the German Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) Project, a high-resolution near-shore bathymetrical survey equipped by multi-beam echo-sounder has been recently conducted. Additional geodata have been collected using Intermap Technologies STAR-4 airborne interferometric SAR data acquisition system on a 5 m ground sample distance basis in order to establish a most-sophisticated Digital Terrain Model (DTM). This paper describes the outcome of tsunami modelling approaches using high resolution data of bathymetry and topography being part of a general case study in Cilacap, Indonesia, and medium resolution data for other area along coastline of south Java Island. By means of two different seismic deformation models to mimic the tsunami source generation, a numerical code based on the 2D nonlinear shallow water equations is used to simulate probable tsunami run-up scenarios. Several model tests are done and virtual points in offshore, near-shore, coastline, as well as tsunami run-up on the coast are collected. For the purpose of validation, the model results are compared with field observations and sea level data observed at several tide gauges stations. The performance of numerical simulations and correlations with observed field data are highlighted, and probable causes for the extreme wave heights and run-ups are outlined. References Ammon, C.J., Kanamori, K., Lay, T., and Velasco, A., 2006. The July 2006 Java Tsunami Earthquake, Geophysical Research Letters, 33(L24308). Fritz, H.M., Kongko, W., Moore, A., McAdoo, B., Goff, J., Harbitz, C., Uslu, B., Kalligeris, N., Suteja, D., Kalsum, K., Titov, V., Gusman, A., Latief, H., Santoso, E., Sujoko, S., Djulkarnaen, D., Sunendar, H., and Synolakis, C., 2007. Extreme Run-up from the 17 July 2006 Java Tsunami. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(L12602). Fujii, Y., and Satake, K., 2006. Source of the July 2006 Java Tsunami Estimated from Tide Gauge Records. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(L23417). Intermap Federal Services Inc., 2007. Digital Terrain Model Cilacap, version 1. Project of GITEWS, DLR Germany. Kongko, W., and Leschka, S., 2008. Nearshore Bathymetry Measurements in Indonesia: Part 1. Cilacap, Technical Report, DHI-WASY GmbH Syke Germany. Kongko, W., Suranto, Chaeroni, Aprijanto, Zikra, and SUjantoko, 2006, Rapid Survey on Tsunami Jawa 17 July 2006, http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/java20060717/tsunami-java170706_e.pdf Lavigne, F., Gomes, C., Giffo, M., Wassmer, P., Hoebreck, C., Mardiatno, D., Prioyono, J., and Paris R., 2007. Field Observation of the 17 July 2006 Tsunami in Java. Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences, 7: 177-183.

High Resolution Tsunami Modeling and Assessment of Harbor Resilience; Case Study in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Aytore, Betul; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Kanoglu, Utku; Duzgun, Sebnem; Zaytsev, Andrey; Arikawa, Taro; Tomita, Takashi; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

2014-05-01

Ports and harbors are the major vulnerable coastal structures under tsunami attack. Resilient harbors against tsunami impacts are essential for proper, efficient and successful rescue operations and reduction of the loss of life and property by tsunami disasters. There are several critical coastal structures as such in the Marmara Sea. Haydarpasa and Yenikapi ports are located in the Marmara Sea coast of Istanbul. These two ports are selected as the sites of numerical experiments to test their resilience under tsunami impact. Cargo, container and ro-ro handlings, and short/long distance passenger transfers are the common services in both ports. Haydarpasa port has two breakwaters with the length of three kilometers in total. Yenikapi port has one kilometer long breakwater. The accurate resilience analysis needs high resolution tsunami modeling and careful assessment of the site. Therefore, building data with accurate coordinates of their foot prints and elevations are obtained. The high resolution bathymetry and topography database with less than 5m grid size is developed for modeling. The metadata of the several types of structures and infrastructure of the ports and environs are processed. Different resistances for the structures/buildings/infrastructures are controlled by assigning different friction coefficients in a friction matrix. Two different tsunami conditions - high expected and moderate expected - are selected for numerical modeling. The hybrid tsunami simulation and visualization codes NAMI DANCE, STOC-CADMAS System are utilized to solve all necessary tsunami parameters and obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of flow depth, current velocity, inundation distance and maximum water level in the study domain. Finally, the computed critical values of tsunami parameters are evaluated and structural performance of the port components are discussed in regard to a better resilience. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-Ç-12-14 of AFAD, 108Y227 and 113M556 of TUBITAK, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call, Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by SATREPS, 2011K140210 of DPT, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are acknowledged.

3D Numerical Simulation on the Rockslide Generated Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuang, M.; Wu, T.; Wang, C.; Chu, C.

2013-12-01

The rockslide generated tsunami is one of the most devastating nature hazards. However, the involvement of the moving obstacle and dynamic free-surface movement makes the numerical simulation a difficult task. To describe both the fluid motion and solid movement at the same time, we newly developed a two-way fully-coupled moving solid algorithm with 3D LES turbulent model. The free-surface movement is tracked by volume of fluid (VOF) method. The two-step projection method is adopted to solve the Navier-Stokes type government equations. In the new moving solid algorithm, a fictitious body force is implicitly prescribed in MAC correction step to make the cell-center velocity satisfied with the obstacle velocity. We called this method the implicit velocity method (IVM). Because no extra terms are added to the pressure Poission correction, the pressure field of the fluid part is stable, which is the key of the two-way fluid-solid coupling. Because no real solid material is presented in the IVM, the time marching step is not restricted to the smallest effective grid size. Also, because the fictitious force is implicitly added to the correction step, the resulting velocity is accurate and fully coupled with the resulting pressure field. We validated the IVM by simulating a floating box moving up and down on the free-surface. We presented the time-history obstacle trajectory and compared it with the experimental data. Very accurate result can be seen in terms of the oscillating amplitude and the period (Fig. 1). We also presented the free-surface comparison with the high-speed snapshots. At the end, the IVM was used to study the rock-slide generated tsunamis (Liu et al., 2005). Good validations on the slide trajectory and the free-surface movement will be presented in the full paper. From the simulation results (Fig. 2), we observed that the rockslide generated waves are manly caused by the rebounding waves from two sides of the sliding rock after the water is dragging down by the solid downward motion. We also found that the turbulence has minor effect to the main flow field. The rock size, rock density, and the steepness of the slope were analyzed to understand their effects to the maximum runup height. The detailed algorithm of IVM, the validation, the simulation and analysis of rockslide tsunami will be presented in the full paper. Figure 1. Time-history trajectory of obstacle for the floating obstacle simulation. Figure 2. Snapshots of the free-surface elevation with streamlines for the rockslide tsunami simulation.

Analytical and Numerical Modeling of Tsunami Wave Propagation for double layer state in Bore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuvaraj, V.; Rajasekaran, S.; Nagarajan, D.

2018-04-01

Tsunami wave enters into the river bore in the landslide. Tsunami wave propagation are described in two-layer states. The velocity and amplitude of the tsunami wave propagation are calculated using the double layer. The numerical and analytical solutions are given for the nonlinear equation of motion of the wave propagation in a bore.

Numerical tsunami hazard assessment of the submarine volcano Kick 'em Jenny in high resolution are

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dondin, Frédéric; Dorville, Jean-Francois Marc; Robertson, Richard E. A.

2016-04-01

Landslide-generated tsunami are infrequent phenomena that can be potentially highly hazardous for population located in the near-field domain of the source. The Lesser Antilles volcanic arc is a curved 800 km chain of volcanic islands. At least 53 flank collapse episodes have been recognized along the arc. Several of these collapses have been associated with underwater voluminous deposits (volume > 1 km3). Due to their momentum these events were likely capable of generating regional tsunami. However no clear field evidence of tsunami associated with these voluminous events have been reported but the occurrence of such an episode nowadays would certainly have catastrophic consequences. Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ) is the only active submarine volcano of the Lesser Antilles Arc (LAA), with a current edifice volume estimated to 1.5 km3. It is the southernmost edifice of the LAA with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. The volcano appears to have undergone three episodes of flank failure. Numerical simulations of one of these episodes associated with a collapse volume of ca. 4.4 km3 and considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami with amplitude of 30 m. In the present study we applied a detailed hazard assessment on KeJ submarine volcano (KeJ) form its collapse to its waves impact on high resolution coastal area of selected island of the LAA in order to highlight needs to improve alert system and risk mitigation. We present the assessment process of tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (i.e. run-up) and flood dynamic (i.e. duration, height, speed...) at the coast of LAA island in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. After quantification of potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA, VolcanoFit 2.0 & SSAP 4.5) based on seven geomechanical models, the tsunami source have been simulate by St-Venant equations-based code (VolcFlow-Matlab). The wave have been propagated on the coastal area of two island with high resolution bathymetry (Litto3D). Keywords - Volcano edifice stability, Collapse volume estimate, Tsunami impact, Kick 'em Jenny, wave propagation, Lesser Antilles, High resolution bathymetry

Simulations of moving effect of coastal vegetation on tsunami damping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Ching-Piao; Chen, Ying-Chi; Octaviani Sihombing, Tri; Lin, Chang

2017-05-01

A coupled wave-vegetation simulation is presented for the moving effect of the coastal vegetation on tsunami wave height damping. The problem is idealized by solitary wave propagation on a group of emergent cylinders. The numerical model is based on general Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with renormalization group turbulent closure model by using volume of fluid technique. The general moving object (GMO) model developed in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code Flow-3D is applied to simulate the coupled motion of vegetation with wave dynamically. The damping of wave height and the turbulent kinetic energy along moving and stationary cylinders are discussed. The simulated results show that the damping of wave height and the turbulent kinetic energy by the moving cylinders are clearly less than by the stationary cylinders. The result implies that the wave decay by the coastal vegetation may be overestimated if the vegetation was represented as stationary state.

Rapid estimate of earthquake source duration: application to tsunami warning.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, Dominique; Jamelot, Anthony; Hyvernaud, Olivier

2016-04-01

We present a method for estimating the source duration of the fault rupture, based on the high-frequency envelop of teleseismic P-Waves, inspired from the original work of (Ni et al., 2005). The main interest of the knowledge of this seismic parameter is to detect abnormal low velocity ruptures that are the characteristic of the so called 'tsunami-earthquake' (Kanamori, 1972). The validation of the results of source duration estimated by this method are compared with two other independent methods : the estimated duration obtained by the Wphase inversion (Kanamori and Rivera, 2008, Duputel et al., 2012) and the duration calculated by the SCARDEC process that determines the source time function (M. Vallée et al., 2011). The estimated source duration is also confronted to the slowness discriminant defined by Newman and Okal, 1998), that is calculated routinely for all earthquakes detected by our tsunami warning process (named PDFM2, Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism, (Clément and Reymond, 2014)). Concerning the point of view of operational tsunami warning, the numerical simulations of tsunami are deeply dependent on the source estimation: better is the source estimation, better will be the tsunami forecast. The source duration is not directly injected in the numerical simulations of tsunami, because the cinematic of the source is presently totally ignored (Jamelot and Reymond, 2015). But in the case of a tsunami-earthquake that occurs in the shallower part of the subduction zone, we have to consider a source in a medium of low rigidity modulus; consequently, for a given seismic moment, the source dimensions will be decreased while the slip distribution increased, like a 'compact' source (Okal, Hébert, 2007). Inversely, a rapid 'snappy' earthquake that has a poor tsunami excitation power, will be characterized by higher rigidity modulus, and will produce weaker displacement and lesser source dimensions than 'normal' earthquake. References: CLément, J. and Reymond, D. (2014). New Tsunami Forecast Tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System. Pure Appl. Geophys, 171. DUPUTEL, Z., RIVERA, L., KANAMORI, H. and HAYES, G. (2012). Wphase source inversion for moderate to large earthquakes. Geophys. J. Intl.189, 1125-1147. Kanamori, H. (1972). Mechanism of tsunami earthquakes. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 6, 246-259. Kanamori, H. and Rivera, L. (2008). Source inversion of W phase : speeding up seismic tsunami warning. Geophys. J. Intl. 175, 222-238. Newman, A. and Okal, E. (1998). Teleseismic estimates of radiated seismic energy : The E=M0 discriminant for tsunami earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 26885-26898. Ni, S., H. Kanamori, and D. Helmberger (2005), Energy radiation from the Sumatra earthquake, Nature, 434, 582. Okal, E.A., and H. Hébert (2007), Far-field modeling of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami, Geophys. J. Intl., 169, 1229-1238. Vallée, M., J. Charléty, A.M.G. Ferreira, B. Delouis, and J. Vergoz, SCARDEC : a new technique for the rapid determination of seismic moment magnitude, focal mechanism and source time functions for large earthquakes using body wave deconvolution, Geophys. J. Int., 184, 338-358, 2011.

Submarine slope earthquake-induced instability and associated tsunami generation potential along the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (offshore eastern Sicily, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

2016-04-01

The stability analysis of offshore margins is an important step for the assessment of natural hazard: the main challenge is to evaluate the potential slope failures and the consequent occurrence of submarine tsunamigenic landslides to mitigate the potential coastal damage to inhabitants and infrastructures. But the limited geotechnical knowledge of the underwater soil and the controversial scientific interpretation of the tectonic units make it often difficult to carry out this type of analysis reliably. We select the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (HME), the main active geological structure offshore eastern Sicily, because the amount of data from historical chronicles, the records about strong earthquakes and tsunami, and the numerous geological offshore surveys carried out in recent years make the region an excellent scenario to evaluate slope failures, mass movements triggered by earthquakes and the consequent tsunamis. We choose several profiles along the HME and analyse their equilibrium conditions using the Minimun Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method (Tinti and Manucci, 2006, 2008; Paparo et al. 2013), that is based on the limit-equilibrium theory. Considering the morphological and geotechnical features of the offshore slopes, we prove that large-earthquake shaking may lead some zones of the HME to instability, we evaluate the expected volumes involved in sliding and compute the associated landslide-tsunami through numerical tsunami simulations. This work was carried out in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Landslide-Generated Tsunami Model for Quick Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, M.; Rudaz, B.; Locat, J.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Podladchikov, Y.

2015-12-01

Alpine regions are likely to be areas at risk regarding to landslide-induced tsunamis, because of the proximity between lakes and potential instabilities and due to the concentration of the population in valleys and on the lakes shores. In particular, dam lakes are often surrounded by steep slopes and frequently affect the stability of the banks. In order to assess comprehensively this phenomenon together with the induced risks, we have developed a 2.5D numerical model which aims to simulate the propagation of the landslide, the generation and the propagation of the wave and eventually the spread on the shores or the associated downstream flow. To perform this task, the process is done in three steps. Firstly, the geometry of the sliding mass is constructed using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) concept. Secondly, the propagation of this volume is performed using a model based on viscous flow equations. Finally, the wave generation and its propagation are simulated using the shallow water equations stabilized by the Lax-Friedrichs scheme. The transition between wet and dry bed is performed by the combination of the two latter sets of equations. The proper behavior of our model is demonstrated by; (1) numerical tests from Toro (2001), and (2) by comparison with a real event where the horizontal run-up distance is known (Nicolet landslide, Quebec, Canada). The model is of particular interest due to its ability to perform quickly the 2.5D geometric model of the landslide, the tsunami simulation and, consequently, the hazard assessment.

Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witter, Robert C.; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Wang, Kelin; Priest, George R.; Goldfinger, Chris; Stimely, Laura; English, John T.; Ferro, Paul A.

2013-01-01

Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank each rupture model using a logic tree that evaluates a model’s consistency with geological and geophysical data. The scenarios provide inputs to a hydrodynamic model, SELFE, used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation on unstructured grids with <5–15 m resolution in coastal areas. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that Cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from ∼4 m to 25 m for earthquakes with 9–44 m slip and Mw 8.7–9.2. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the A.D. 1700 and older tsunamis. Tsunami simulations for large (22–30 m slip) and medium (14–19 m slip) splay fault scenarios encompass 80%–95% of all inundation scenarios and provide reasonable guidelines for land-use planning and coastal development. The maximum tsunami inundation simulated for the greatest splay fault scenario (36–44 m slip) can help to guide development of local tsunami evacuation zones.

Operational Tsunami Modelling with TsunAWI for the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System: Recent Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakowsky, N.; Harig, S.; Androsov, A.; Fuchs, A.; Immerz, A.; Schröter, J.; Hiller, W.

2012-04-01

Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. Numerical simulations of prototypic tsunami scenarios play a decisive role in a priori risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. Repositories with currently 3470 regional tsunami scenarios for GITEWS and 1780 Indian Ocean wide scenarios in support of Indonesia as a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP) were computed with the non-linear shallow water modell TsunAWI. It is based on a finite element discretisation, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview on the model itself, the enhancement of the model physics, and the experiences gained during the process of establishing an operational code suited for thousands of model runs. Technical aspects like computation time, disk space needed for each scenario in the repository, or post processing techniques have a much larger impact than they had in the beginning when TsunAWI started as a research code. Of course, careful testing on artificial benchmarks and real events remains essential, but furthermore, quality control for the large number of scenarios becomes an important issue.

DTWT (Dispersive Tsunami Wave Tool): a new tool for computing the complete dispersion of tsunami travel time.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, Dominique

2017-04-01

We present a tool for computing the complete arrival times of the dispersed wave-train of a tsunami. The calculus is made using the exact formulation of the tsunami dispersion (and without approximations), at any desired periods between one hour or more (concerning the gravity waves propagation) until 10s (the highly dispersed mode). The computation of the travel times is based on the a summation of the necessary time for a tsunami to cross all the elementary blocs of a grid of bathymetry following a path between the source and receiver at a given period. In addition the source dimensions and the focal mechanism are taken into account to adjust the minimum travel time to the different possible points of emission of the source. A possible application of this tool is to forecast the arrival time of late arrivals of tsunami waves that could produce the resonnance of some bays and sites at higher frequencies than the gravity mode. The theoretical arrival times are compared to the observed ones and to the results obtained by TTT (P. Wessel, 2009) and the ones obtained by numerical simulations. References: Wessel, P. (2009). Analysis of oberved and predicted tsunami travel times for the Pacic and Indian oceans. Pure Appl. Geophys., 166:301-324.

Model validation and error estimation of tsunami runup using high resolution data in Sadeng Port, Gunungkidul, Yogyakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basith, Abdul; Prakoso, Yudhono; Kongko, Widjo

2017-07-01

A tsunami model using high resolution geometric data is indispensable in efforts to tsunami mitigation, especially in tsunami prone areas. It is one of the factors that affect the accuracy results of numerical modeling of tsunami. Sadeng Port is a new infrastructure in the Southern Coast of Java which could potentially hit by massive tsunami from seismic gap. This paper discusses validation and error estimation of tsunami model created using high resolution geometric data in Sadeng Port. Tsunami model validation uses the height wave of Tsunami Pangandaran 2006 recorded by Tide Gauge of Sadeng. Tsunami model will be used to accommodate the tsunami numerical modeling involves the parameters of earthquake-tsunami which is derived from the seismic gap. The validation results using t-test (student) shows that the height of the tsunami modeling results and observation in Tide Gauge of Sadeng are considered statistically equal at 95% confidence level and the value of the RMSE and NRMSE are 0.428 m and 22.12%, while the differences of tsunami wave travel time is 12 minutes.

Site-specific seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: performances and potential applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Volpe, Manuela; Lorito, Stefano; Selva, Jacopo; Orefice, Simone; Graziani, Laura; Brizuela, Beatriz; Smedile, Alessandra; Romano, Fabrizio; De Martini, Paolo Marco; Maramai, Alessandra; Piatanesi, Alessio; Pantosti, Daniela

2017-04-01

Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) provides probabilities to exceed different thresholds of tsunami hazard intensity, at a specific site or region and in a given time span, for tsunamis caused by seismic sources. Results obtained by SPTHA (i.e., probabilistic hazard curves and inundation maps) represent a very important input to risk analyses and land use planning. However, the large variability of source parameters implies the definition of a huge number of potential tsunami scenarios, whose omission could lead to a biased analysis. Moreover, tsunami propagation from source to target requires the use of very expensive numerical simulations. At regional scale, the computational cost can be reduced using assumptions on the tsunami modeling (i.e., neglecting non-linear effects, using coarse topo-bathymetric meshes, empirically extrapolating maximum wave heights on the coast). On the other hand, moving to local scale, a much higher resolution is required and such assumptions drop out, since detailed inundation maps require significantly greater computational resources. In this work we apply a multi-step method to perform a site-specific SPTHA which can be summarized in the following steps: i) to perform a regional hazard assessment to account for both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the seismic source, by combining the use of an event tree and an ensemble modeling technique; ii) to apply a filtering procedure which use a cluster analysis to define a significantly reduced number of representative scenarios contributing to the hazard of a specific target site; iii) to perform high resolution numerical simulations only for these representative scenarios and for a subset of near field sources placed in very shallow waters and/or whose coseismic displacements induce ground uplift or subsidence at the target. The method is applied to three target areas in the Mediterranean located around the cities of Milazzo (Italy), Thessaloniki (Greece) and Siracusa (Italy). The latter target analysis is enriched by the use of local observed tsunami data, both geological and historical. Indeed, tsunami data-sets available for Siracusa are particularly rich with respect to the scarce and heterogeneous data-sets usually available elsewhere. Therefore, they can represent a further valuable source of information to benchmark and strengthen the results of such kind of studies. The work is funded by the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE, the two EC FP7 ASTARTE (Grant agreement 603839) and STREST (Grant agreement 603389) projects, the TSUMAPS-NEAM (Grant agreement ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26) project and the INGV-DPC Agreement.

Development of High Precision Tsunami Runup Calculation Method Coupled with Structure Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arikawa, Taro; Seki, Katsumi; Chida, Yu; Takagawa, Tomohiro; Shimosako, Kenichiro

2017-04-01

The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) has shown that tsunami disasters are not limited to inundation damage in a specified region, but may destroy a wide area, causing a major disaster. Evaluating standing land structures and damage to them requires highly precise evaluation of three-dimensional fluid motion - an expensive process. Our research goals were thus to develop a coupling STOC-CADMAS (Arikawa and Tomita, 2016) coupling with the structure analysis (Arikawa et. al., 2009) to efficiently calculate all stages from tsunami source to runup including the deformation of structures and to verify their applicability. We also investigated the stability of breakwaters at Kamaishi Bay. Fig. 1 shows the whole of this calculation system. The STOC-ML simulator approximates pressure by hydrostatic pressure and calculates the wave profiles based on an equation of continuity, thereby lowering calculation cost, primarily calculating from a e epi center to the shallow region. As a simulator, STOC-IC solves pressure based on a Poisson equation to account for a shallower, more complex topography, but reduces computation cost slightly to calculate the area near a port by setting the water surface based on an equation of continuity. CS3D also solves a Navier-Stokes equation and sets the water surface by VOF to deal with the runup area, with its complex surfaces of overflows and bores. STR solves the structure analysis including the geo analysis based on the Biot's formula. By coupling these, it efficiently calculates the tsunami profile from the propagation to the inundation. The numerical results compared with the physical experiments done by Arikawa et. al.,2012. It was good agreement with the experimental ones. Finally, the system applied to the local situation at Kamaishi bay. The almost breakwaters were washed away, whose situation was similar to the damage at Kamaishi bay. REFERENCES T. Arikawa and T. Tomita (2016): "Development of High Precision Tsunami Runup Calculation Method Based on a Hierarchical Simulation", Journal of Disaster ResearchVol.11 No.4 T. Arikawa, K. Hamaguchi, K. Kitagawa, T. Suzuki (2009): "Development of Numerical Wave Tank Coupled with Structure Analysis Based on FEM", Journal of J.S.C.E., Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Vol. 65, No. 1 T. Arikawa et. al.(2012) "Failure Mechanism of Kamaishi Breakwaters due to the Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami", 33rd International Conference on Coastal Engineering, No.1191

The double landslide-induced tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Armigliat, A.; Manucci, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Tonini, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.

The 2002 crisis of Stromboli culminated on December 30 in a series of mass failures detached from the Sciara del Fuoco, with two main landslides, one submarine followed about 7 min later by a second subaerial. These landslides caused two distinct tsunamis that were seen by most people in the island as a unique event. The double tsunami was strongly damaging, destroying several houses in the waterfront at Ficogrande, Punta Lena, and Scari localities in the northeastern coast of Stromboli. The waves affected also Panarea and were observed in the northern Sicily coast and even in Campania, but with minor effects. There are no direct instrumental records of these tsunamis. What we know resides on (1) observations and quantification of the impact of the waves on the coast, collected in a number of postevent field surveys; (2) interviews of eyewitnesses and a collection of tsunami images (photos and videos) taken by observers; and (3) on results of numerical simulations. In this paper, we propose a critical reconstruction of the events where all the available pieces of information are recomposed to form a coherent and consistent mosaic.

Landslide-generated tsunamis in a perialpine lake: Historical events and numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilbe, Michael; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

2014-05-01

Many of the perialpine lakes in Central Europe - the large, glacier-carved basins formed during the Pleistocene glaciations of the Alps - have proven to be environments prone to subaquatic landsliding. Among these, Lake Lucerne (Switzerland) has a particularly well-established record of subaquatic landslides and related tsunamis. Its sedimentary archive documents numerous landslides over the entire Holocene, which have either been triggered by earthquakes, or which occurred apparently spontaneously, possibly due to rapid sediment accumulation on delta slopes. Due to their controlled boundary conditions and the possibility to be investigated on a complete basinal scale, such lacustrine tsunamis may be used as textbook analogons for their marine counterparts. Two events in the 17th century illustrate these processes and their consequences: In AD 1601, an earthquake (Mw ~ 5.9) led to widespread failure of the sediment drape covering the lateral slopes in several basins. The resulting landslides generated tsunami waves that reached a runup of several metres, as reported in historical accounts. The waves caused widespread damage as well as loss of lives in communities along the shores. In AD 1687, the apparently spontaneous collapse of a river delta in the lake led to similar waves that damaged nearby villages. Based on detailed information on topography, bathymetry and the geometry of the landslide deposits, numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for landslide propagation, as well as for tsunami generation, propagation and inundation, are able to reproduce most of the reported tsunami effects for these events. Calculated maximum runup of the waves is 6 to >10 m in the directly affected lake basins, but significantly less in neighbouring basins. Flat alluvial plains adjacent to the most heavily affected areas are inundated over distances of several hundred metres. Taken as scenarios for possible future events, these past events suggest that tsunami hazard in these lake should not be neglected, although they are infrequent and the effects are naturally limited to the immediate surroundings of the affected basins. The shores of Lake Lucerne, as well as of many other perialpine lakes, are nowadays densely inhabited and host considerable infrastructure, so that events similar to those reported may have serious consequences. Identification and mapping of possible subaquatic landslide source areas, the inclusion of geotechnical data on potentially mobile sediments, as well as numerical modelling of tsunamis are thus important components of a proper hazard assessment for these lakes.

Benchmarking on Tsunami Currents with ComMIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharghi vand, N.; Kanoglu, U.

2015-12-01

There were no standards for the validation and verification of tsunami numerical models before 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Even, number of numerical models has been used for inundation mapping effort, evaluation of critical structures, etc. without validation and verification. After 2004, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) established standards for the validation and verification of tsunami numerical models (Synolakis et al. 2008 Pure Appl. Geophys. 165, 2197-2228), which will be used evaluation of critical structures such as nuclear power plants against tsunami attack. NCTR presented analytical, experimental and field benchmark problems aimed to estimate maximum runup and accepted widely by the community. Recently, benchmark problems were suggested by the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Mapping & Modeling Benchmarking Workshop: Tsunami Currents on February 9-10, 2015 at Portland, Oregon, USA (http://nws.weather.gov/nthmp/index.html). These benchmark problems concentrated toward validation and verification of tsunami numerical models on tsunami currents. Three of the benchmark problems were: current measurement of the Japan 2011 tsunami in Hilo Harbor, Hawaii, USA and in Tauranga Harbor, New Zealand, and single long-period wave propagating onto a small-scale experimental model of the town of Seaside, Oregon, USA. These benchmark problems were implemented in the Community Modeling Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) (Titov et al. 2011 Pure Appl. Geophys. 168, 2121-2131), which is a user-friendly interface to the validated and verified Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) (Titov and Synolakis 1995 J. Waterw. Port Coastal Ocean Eng. 121, 308-316) model and is developed by NCTR. The modeling results are compared with the required benchmark data, providing good agreements and results are discussed. Acknowledgment: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)

Far-Field Simulations of Tele-tsunami Observed in the Atlantic Ocean: Impact on the Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viana-Baptista, M.; Roger, J.; Hebert, H.

2009-12-01

In this study we present the results of far-field numerical modelling of tsunamis generated in the North-Atlantic Ocean and the impact along the coasts. The historical databases for the North East Atlantic area and the Caribbean region present two tele-tsunamis of seismic origin: the 1755.11.01 and the 1761.03.31 events. The impact of the 1755 tsunami in the West Indies and Northern America is extensively described in the historical documents; in fact important wave heights (> 2 m), flooding of low areas and damage and destruction of coastal infrastructures were reported in the West Indies, Brazil and Newfoundland (Canada) for the 1755 event. Recently several authors published the results of far-field simulations, for this event. The 31st March 1761 earthquake occurred at noon and one hour and a quarter after the quake Lisbon was impacted by the tsunami with a maximum amplitude of 8 feet (circa 2.4 meter). Sea water changes were observed along the south coast of Spain, and in the Atlantic Islands of Azores and Madeira. In the far field the most well known report comes from Barbados where the tide ebbed and flowed, in about eight minutes between eighteen inches and two feet. According to the Portuguese catalogue of tsunamis the source location of this event is 34.5°N, 13°W and the magnitude of the generating earthquake is 8.5. We present far-field simulation results in two French Overseas Territories, Guadeloupe and Martinique Islands in the West Indies and in Newfoundland (Canada). The main objective is to discuss the reliability of the available historical reports for this event occurring about 5.5 years after the big Lisbon tsunami. Then we show that such event has to be considered in hazard assessment with regards to the West Indies. Understanding the impact of these two tele-tsunamis is crucial for hazard and risk studies in the Caribbean region and particularly for the Martinique and Guadeloupe Islands. This study has been founded by the French ANR project MAREMOTI under contract ANR-08-RISKNAT-05-01c.

Exploring the Cause of Catastrophic Caribbean Inundation in 1200-1480 C.E. Using Numerical Models Compared with Geological Evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Atwater, B. F.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Roeber, V.

2016-12-01

Did a tsunami of nearby origin cause the most extreme of the late Holocene overwash on an island near the NE corner of the Caribbean Plate? Or did this overwash result instead from tsunami-like bores of a hurricane? These alternatives arise at Anegada, a storm-prone island 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench. The island has geological evidence for three kinds of extreme waves, the most extreme of which scattered hundreds of coral boulders as much as 600 m inland sometime between 1200 C.E. and 1480 C.E. The flooding dwarfed the effects of modern historical hurricanes on the island, and also of overwash in 1650-1800 that may represent the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. New tsunami and hurricane wave simulations, incorporating lidar bathymetry and topography, have been tuned to the evidence for extreme waves in 1200-1480. These simulations were run for different hypothetical transatlantic, trench, and outer rise tsunami sources, and for extreme hurricanes. The successful tsunami scenarios entail minimum earthquake magnitudes of 8.4 for thrust faulting on the subduction interface and 8.2 for normal faulting on the outer wall of the trench. "Success" signifies inundation of all, or nearly all, the sites where field evidence for flooding in 1200-1480 has been found. Such success has not been obtained with any of the 15 hurricane scenarios tried thus far. These scenarios presuppose storms of category 5 in which infragravity waves form tsunami-like bores at a fringing coral reef. We tried five scenarios for each of three storm tracks that pass at different orientations within 40 km of Anegada. The rigorous storm model package accounts for linkage of circulation, spectral wave, and Boussineq models in nested computational schemes that explain both phase-averaging and phase-resolving wave processes. We are making additional simulations with the same kind of phase-resolving Boussinesq model that has replicated tsunami-like bores from surf beat on reef-protected shore in the Philippines during 2013 Typhoon Haiyan.

Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, L.; Titov, V. V.; Chamberlin, C. D.

2009-12-01

The study describes the development, testing and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast and warning system. The model development process includes sensitivity studies of tsunami wave characteristics in the nearshore and inundation, for a range of model grid setups, resolutions and parameters. To demonstrate the process, four forecast models in Hawaii, at Hilo, Kahului, Honolulu, and Nawiliwili are described. The models were validated with fourteen historical tsunamis and compared with numerical results from reference inundation models of higher resolution. The accuracy of the modeled maximum wave height is greater than 80% when the observation is greater than 0.5 m; when the observation is below 0.5 m the error is less than 0.3 m. The error of the modeled arrival time of the first peak is within 3% of the travel time. The developed forecast models were further applied to hazard assessment from simulated magnitude 7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3 tsunamis based on subduction zone earthquakes in the Pacific. The tsunami hazard assessment study indicates that use of a seismic magnitude alone for a tsunami source assessment is inadequate to achieve such accuracy for tsunami amplitude forecasts. The forecast models apply local bathymetric and topographic information, and utilize dynamic boundary conditions from the tsunami source function database, to provide site- and event-specific coastal predictions. Only by combining a Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami-constrained tsunami magnitude with site-specific high-resolution models can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generation, deep ocean propagation, and coastal inundation. Wavelet analysis of the tsunami waves suggests the coastal tsunami frequency responses at different sites are dominated by the local bathymetry, yet they can be partially related to the locations of the tsunami sources. The study also demonstrates the nonlinearity between offshore and nearshore maximum wave amplitudes.

Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

2017-03-01

Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

The 15 August 2007 Peru tsunami runup observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Hermann M.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Borrero, Jose C.; Broncano, Pablo; Ortega, Erick

2008-05-01

On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts to ensure successful self-evacuation.

Modeling the 1958 Lituya Bay mega-tsunami with a PVM-IFCP GPU-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Vida, José M.; Arcas, Diego; de la Asunción, Marc; Castro, Manuel J.; Macías, Jorge; Ortega, Sergio; Sánchez-Linares, Carlos; Titov, Vasily

2013-04-01

In this work we present a numerical study, performed in collaboration with the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (USA), that uses a GPU version of the PVM-IFCP landslide model for the simulation of the 1958 landslide generated tsunami of Lituya Bay. In this model, a layer composed of fluidized granular material is assumed to flow within an upper layer of an inviscid fluid (e. g. water). The model is discretized using a two dimensional PVM-IFCP [Fernández - Castro - Parés. On an Intermediate Field Capturing Riemann Solver Based on a Parabolic Viscosity Matrix for the Two-Layer Shallow Water System, J. Sci. Comput., 48 (2011):117-140] finite volume scheme implemented on GPU cards for increasing the speed-up. This model has been previously validated by using the two-dimensional physical laboratory experiments data from H. Fritz [Lituya Bay Landslide Impact Generated Mega-Tsunami 50th Anniversary. Pure Appl. Geophys., 166 (2009) pp. 153-175]. In the present work, the first step was to reconstruct the topobathymetry of the Lituya Bay before this event ocurred, this is based on USGS geological surveys data. Then, a sensitivity analysis of some model parameters has been performed in order to determine the parameters that better fit to reality, when model results are compared against available event data, as run-up areas. In this presentation, the reconstruction of the pre-tsunami scenario will be shown, a detailed simulation of the tsunami presented and several comparisons with real data (runup, wave height, etc.) shown.

Run-up Variability due to Source Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Giudice, Tania; Zolezzi, Francesca; Traverso, Chiara; Valfrè, Giulio; Poggi, Pamela; Parker, Eric J.

2010-05-01

This paper investigates the variability of tsunami run-up at a specific location due to uncertainty in earthquake source parameters. It is important to quantify this 'inter-event' variability for probabilistic assessments of tsunami hazard. In principal, this aspect of variability could be studied by comparing field observations at a single location from a number of tsunamigenic events caused by the same source. As such an extensive dataset does not exist, we decided to study the inter-event variability through numerical modelling. We attempt to answer the question 'What is the potential variability of tsunami wave run-up at a specific site, for a given magnitude earthquake occurring at a known location'. The uncertainty is expected to arise from the lack of knowledge regarding the specific details of the fault rupture 'source' parameters. The following steps were followed: the statistical distributions of the main earthquake source parameters affecting the tsunami height were established by studying fault plane solutions of known earthquakes; a case study based on a possible tsunami impact on Egypt coast has been set up and simulated, varying the geometrical parameters of the source; simulation results have been analyzed deriving relationships between run-up height and source parameters; using the derived relationships a Monte Carlo simulation has been performed in order to create the necessary dataset to investigate the inter-event variability of the run-up height along the coast; the inter-event variability of the run-up height along the coast has been investigated. Given the distribution of source parameters and their variability, we studied how this variability propagates to the run-up height, using the Cornell 'Multi-grid coupled Tsunami Model' (COMCOT). The case study was based on the large thrust faulting offshore the south-western Greek coast, thought to have been responsible for the infamous 1303 tsunami. Numerical modelling of the event was used to assess the impact on the North African coast. The effects of uncertainty in fault parameters were assessed by perturbing the base model, and observing variation on wave height along the coast. The tsunami wave run-up was computed at 4020 locations along the Egyptian coast between longitudes 28.7 E and 33.8 E. To assess the effects of fault parameters uncertainty, input model parameters have been varied and effects on run-up have been analyzed. The simulations show that for a given point there are linear relationships between run-up and both fault dislocation and rupture length. A superposition analysis shows that a linear combination of the effects of the different source parameters (evaluated results) leads to a good approximation of the simulated results. This relationship is then used as the basis for a Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation was performed for 1600 scenarios at each of the 4020 points along the coast. The coefficient of variation (the ratio between standard deviation of the results and the average of the run-up heights along the coast) is comprised between 0.14 and 3.11 with an average value along the coast equal to 0.67. The coefficient of variation of normalized run-up has been compared with the standard deviation of spectral acceleration attenuation laws used for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies. These values have a similar meaning, and the uncertainty in the two cases is similar. The 'rule of thumb' relationship between mean and sigma can be expressed as follows: ?+ σ ≈ 2?. The implication is that the uncertainty in run-up estimation should give a range of values within approximately two times the average. This uncertainty should be considered in tsunami hazard analysis, such as inundation and risk maps, evacuation plans and the other related steps.

Peru 2007 tsunami runup observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Borrero, J. C.

2008-05-01

On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed in the immediate aftermath and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. The largest runup heights were measured in a sparsely populated desert area south of the Paracas Peninsula resulting in only 3 tsunami fatalities. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the presence of the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. The coast of Peru has experienced numerous deadly and destructive tsunamis throughout history, which highlights the importance of ongoing tsunami awareness and education efforts in the region. The Peru tsunami is compared against recent mega-disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and Hurricane Katrina.

Multiple Solutions of Real-time Tsunami Forecasting Using Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gica, E.

2016-12-01

The Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) tool, developed by NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), is used in forecast operations at the Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The SIFT tool relies on a pre-computed tsunami propagation database, real-time DART buoy data, and an inversion algorithm to define the tsunami source. The tsunami propagation database is composed of 50×100km unit sources, simulated basin-wide for at least 24 hours. Different combinations of unit sources, DART buoys, and length of real-time DART buoy data can generate a wide range of results within the defined tsunami source. For an inexperienced SIFT user, the primary challenge is to determine which solution, among multiple solutions for a single tsunami event, would provide the best forecast in real time. This study investigates how the use of different tsunami sources affects simulated tsunamis at tide gauge locations. Using the tide gauge at Hilo, Hawaii, a total of 50 possible solutions for the 2011 Tohoku tsunami are considered. Maximum tsunami wave amplitude and root mean square error results are used to compare tide gauge data and the simulated tsunami time series. Results of this study will facilitate SIFT users' efforts to determine if the simulated tide gauge tsunami time series from a specific tsunami source solution would be within the range of possible solutions. This study will serve as the basis for investigating more historical tsunami events and tide gauge locations.

The Vajont disaster: a 3D numerical simulation for the slide and the waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubino, Angelo; Androsov, Alexey; Vacondio, Renato; Zanchettin, Davide; Voltzinger, Naum

2016-04-01

A very high resolution O(5 m), 3D hydrostatic nonlinear numerical model was used to simulate the dynamics of both the slide and the surface waves produced during the Vajont disaster (north Italy, 1963), one of the major landslide-induced tsunamis ever documented. Different simulated wave phenomena like, e.g., maximum run-up on the opposite shore, maximum height, and water velocity were analyzed and compared with data available in literature, including the results of a fully 3D simulation obtained with a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic code. The difference between measured and simulated after-slide bathymetries was calculated and used in an attempt to quantify the relative magnitude and extension of rigid and fluid motion components during the event.

Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, Joern

2013-04-01

Tsunami-Earthquakes represent natural catastrophes threatening lives and well-being of societies in a solitary and unexpected extreme event as tragically demonstrated in Sumatra (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010), or Japan (2011). Both phenomena are consequences of the complex system of interactions of tectonic stress, fracture mechanics, rock friction, rupture dynamics, fault geometry, ocean bathymetry, and coastline geometry. The ASCETE project forms an interdisciplinary research consortium that couples the most advanced simulation technologies for earthquake rupture dynamics and tsunami propagation to understand the fundamental conditions of tsunami generation. We report on the latest research results in physics-based dynamic rupture and tsunami wave propagation simulation, using unstructured and adaptive meshes with continuous and discontinuous Galerkin discretization approaches. Coupling both simulation tools - the physics-based dynamic rupture simulation and the hydrodynamic tsunami wave propagation - will give us the possibility to conduct highly realistic studies of the interaction of rupture dynamics and tsunami impact characteristics.

Operational tsunami modeling with TsunAWI - Examples for Indonesia and Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakowsky, Natalja; Androsov, Alexey; Harig, Sven; Immerz, Antonia; Fuchs, Annika; Behrens, Jörn; Danilov, Sergey; Hiller, Wolfgang; Schröter, Jens

2014-05-01

The numerical simulation code TsunAWI was developed in the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS). The numerical simulation of prototypical tsunami scenarios plays a decisive role in the a priory risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. TsunAWI is based on a finite element discretization, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast, and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview of the model itself and presents two applications. For GITEWS, the existing scenario database covering 528 epicenters / 3450 scenarios from Sumatra to Bali was extended by 187 epicenters / 1100 scenarios in the Eastern Sunda Arc. Furthermore, about 1100 scenarios for the Western Sunda Arc were recomputed on the new model domain covering the whole Indonesian Seas. These computations would not have been feasible in the beginning of the project. The unstructured computational grid contains 7 million nodes and resolves all coastal regions with 150m, some project regions and the surrounding of tide gauges with 50m, and the deep ocean with 12km edge length. While in the Western Sunda Arc, the large islands of Sumatra and Java shield the Northern Indonesian Archipelago, tsunamis in the Eastern Sunda Arc can propagate to the North. The unstructured grid approach allows TsunAWI to easily simulate the complex propagation patterns with the self-interactions and the reflections at the coastal regions of myriads of islands. For the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of the Chilean Navy (SHOA), we calculated a small scenario database of 100 scenarios (sources by Universidad de Chile) to provide data for a lightweight decision support system prototype (built by DLR). This work is part of the initiation project "Multi hazard information and early warning system in cooperation with Chile" and aims at sharing our experience from GITEWS with the Chilean partners.

Tsunami risk mapping simulation for Malaysia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Teh, S.Y.; Koh, H. L.; Moh, Y.T.; De Angelis, D. L.; Jiang, J.

2011-01-01

The 26 December 2004 Andaman mega tsunami killed about a quarter of a million people worldwide. Since then several significant tsunamis have recurred in this region, including the most recent 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami. These tsunamis grimly remind us of the devastating destruction that a tsunami might inflict on the affected coastal communities. There is evidence that tsunamis of similar or higher magnitudes might occur again in the near future in this region. Of particular concern to Malaysia are tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring along the northern part of the Sunda Trench. Further, the Manila Trench in the South China Sea has been identified as another source of potential tsunamigenic earthquakes that might trigger large tsunamis. To protect coastal communities that might be affected by future tsunamis, an effective early warning system must be properly installed and maintained to provide adequate time for residents to be evacuated from risk zones. Affected communities must be prepared and educated in advance regarding tsunami risk zones, evacuation routes as well as an effective evacuation procedure that must be taken during a tsunami occurrence. For these purposes, tsunami risk zones must be identified and classified according to the levels of risk simulated. This paper presents an analysis of tsunami simulations for the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea for the purpose of developing a tsunami risk zone classification map for Malaysia based upon simulated maximum wave heights. ?? 2011 WIT Press.

The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongwei; Yuan, Ye; Xu, Zhiguo; Wang, Zongchen; Wang, Juncheng; Wang, Peitao; Gao, Yi; Hou, Jingming; Shan, Di

2017-06-01

The South China Sea (SCS) and its adjacent small basins including Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea are commonly identified as tsunami-prone region by its historical records on seismicity and tsunamis. However, quantification of tsunami hazard in the SCS region remained an intractable issue due to highly complex tectonic setting and multiple seismic sources within and surrounding this area. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is performed in the present study to evaluate tsunami hazard in the SCS region based on a brief review on seismological and tsunami records. 5 regional and local potential tsunami sources are tentatively identified, and earthquake catalogs are generated using Monte Carlo simulation following the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship for each zone. Considering a lack of consensus on magnitude upper bound on each seismic source, as well as its critical role in PTHA, the major concern of the present study is to define the upper and lower limits of tsunami hazard in the SCS region comprehensively by adopting different corner magnitudes that could be derived by multiple principles and approaches, including TGR regression of historical catalog, fault-length scaling, tectonic and seismic moment balance, and repetition of historical largest event. The results show that tsunami hazard in the SCS and adjoining basins is subject to large variations when adopting different corner magnitudes, with the upper bounds 2-6 times of the lower. The probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for specified return periods reveal much higher threat from Cotabato Trench and Sulawesi Trench in the Celebes Sea, whereas tsunami hazard received by the coasts of the SCS and Sulu Sea is relatively moderate, yet non-negligible. By combining empirical method with numerical study of historical tsunami events, the present PTHA results are tentatively validated. The correspondence lends confidence to our study. Considering the proximity of major sources to population-laden cities around the SCS region, the tsunami hazard and risk should be further highlighted in the future.

Tsunami vs Infragravity Surge: Statistics and Physical Character of Extreme Runup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Montoya, L. H.

2017-12-01

Motivated by recent observations of energetic and impulsive infragravity (IG) flooding events - also known as sneaker waves - we will present recent work on the relative probabilities and dynamics of extreme flooding events from tsunamis and long period wind wave events. The discussion will be founded on videos and records of coastal flooding by both recent tsunamis and IG, such as those in the Philippines during Typhoon Haiyan. From these observations, it is evident that IG surges may approach the coast as breaking bores with periods of minutes; a very tsunami-like character. Numerical simulations will be used to estimate flow elevations and speeds from potential IG surges, and these will be compared with similar values from tsunamis, over a range of different beach profiles. We will examine the relative rareness of each type of flooding event, which for large values of IG runup is a particularly challenging topic. For example, for a given runup elevation or flooding speed, the related tsunami return period may be longer than that associated with IG, implying that deposit information associated with such elevations or speeds are more likely to be caused by IG. Our purpose is to provide a statistical and physical discriminant between tsunami and IG, such that in areas exposed to both, a proper interpretation of overland transport, deposition, and damage is possible.

The tsunami-like sea level disturbance in Crotone harbor, Italy, after the Mw6.5 strike-slip earthquake of 17 November 2015 in Lefkada Isl., Ionian Sea, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikova, Tatyana; Annunziato, Alessandro; Charalampakis, Marinos; Romano, Fabrizio; Volpe, Manuela; Tonini, Roberto; Gerardinger, Andrea; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.

2016-04-01

On 17 November 2015 an Mw6.5 earthquake ruptured offshore Lefkada Isl. in Ionian Sea, Greece, causing two human victims, minor damage and several ground failures including coastal landslides. Fault plane solutions released by CMT/Harvard, NOA and other institutes have indicated that the faulting style was strike-slip right-lateral, which is quite typical for the area, as for example, the Mw6.3 event that occurred on August 14, 2003, in exactly the same fault zone. In spite of the very low tsunami potential commonly associated to this faulting mechanism, a tsunami-like sea level change was recorded after the earthquake by one tide-gauge in the Crotone harbor, Italy. Preliminary tsunami numerical simulations were performed to reproduce the observed signal. The spectral analysis of the synthetic mareograms close to the entrance of the harbor shows the presence of some peaks that could justify the relation between the natural port resonance and the observed wave amplification. Of particular interest is the coupling between the tsunami energy and the natural modes of basin oscillation enhancing tsunami wave amplitude in harbors through resonance, as shown in some historical events in the Mediterranean Sea and elsewhere. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the Colombian Caribbean Coast with a deterministic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero Diaz, L.; Correa, R.; Ortiz R, J. C.; Restrepo L, J. C.

2014-12-01

For the Caribbean Sea, we propose six potential tectonic sources of tsunami, defining for each source the worst credible earthquake from the analysis of historical seismicity, tectonics, pasts tsunami, and review of IRIS, PDE, NOAA, and CMT catalogs. The generation and propagation of tsunami waves in the selected sources were simulated with COMCOT 1.7, which is a numerical model that solves the linear and nonlinear long wave equations in finite differences in both Cartesian, and spherical coordinates. The results of the modeling are presented in maps of maximum displacement of the free surface for the Colombian Caribbean coast and the island areas, and they show that the event would produce greater impact is generated in the source of North Panama Deformed Belt (NPDB), where the first wave train reaches the central Colombian coast in 40 minutes, generating wave heights up to 3.7 m. In San Andrés and Providencia island, tsunami waves reach more than 4.5 m due effects of edge waves caused by interactions between waves and a barrier coral reef around of each island. The results obtained in this work are useful for planning systems and future regional and local warning systems and to identify priority areas to conduct detailed research to the tsunami threat.

Kuril Islands tsunami of November 2006: 1. Impact at Crescent City by distant scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kowalik, Z.; Horrillo, J.; Knight, W.; Logan, Tom

2008-01-01

A numerical model for the global tsunami computation constructed by Kowalik et al. (2005, 2007a) is applied to the tsunami of November 15, 2006 in the northern Pacific with spatial resolution of one minute. Numerical results are compared to sea level data collected by Pacific DART buoys. The tide gauge at Crescent City (CC) recorded an initial tsunami wave of about 20 cm amplitude and a second larger energy packet arriving 2 hours later. The first energy input into the CC harbor was the primary (direct) wave traveling over the deep waters of the North Pacific. Interactions with submarine ridges and numerous seamounts located in the tsunami path were a larger source of tsunami energy than the direct wave. Travel time for these amplified energy fluxes is longer than for the direct wave. Prime sources for the larger fluxes at CC are interactions with Koko Guyot and Hess Rise. Tsunami waves travel next over the Mendocino Escarpment where the tsunami energy flux is concentrated owing to refraction and directed toward CC. Local tsunami amplification over the shelf break and shelf are important as well. In many locations along the North Pacific coast, the first arriving signal or forerunner has lower amplitude than the main signal, which often is delayed. Understanding this temporal distribution is important for an application to tsunami warning and prediction. As a tsunami hazard mitigation tool, we propose that along with the sea level records (which are often quite noisy), an energy flux for prediction of the delayed tsunami signals be used.

Geological Evidences for a Large Tsunami Generated by the 7.3 ka Kikai Caldera Eruption, Southern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Fujino, S.; Satake, K.

2017-12-01

The 7.3 ka eruption of Kikai volcano, southern Kyushu, Japan, is one of the largest caldera-forming eruption in the world. Given that a huge caldera was formed in shallow sea area during the eruption, a tsunami must have been generated by a sea-level change associated. Pyroclastic flow and tsunami deposits by the eruption have been studied around the caldera, but they are not enough to evaluate the tsunami size. The goal of this study is to unravel sizes of tsunami and triggering caldera collapse by numerical simulations based on a widely-distributed tsunami deposit associated with the eruption. In this presentation, we will provide an initial data on distribution of the 7.3 ka tsunami deposit contained in sediment cores taken at three coastal lowlands in Wakayama, Tokushima, and Oita prefectures (560 km, 520 km, and 310 km north-east from the caldera, respectively). A volcanic ash from the eruption (Kikai Akahoya tephra: K-Ah) is evident in organic-rich muddy sedimentary sequence in all sediment cores. Up to 6-cm-thick sand layer, characterized by a grading structure and sharp bed boundary with lower mud, is observed immediately beneath the K-Ah tephra in all study sites. These sedimentary characteristics and broad distribution indicate that the sand layer was most likely deposited by a tsunami which can propagate to a wide area, but not by a local storm surge. Furthermore, the stratigraphic relationship implies that the study sites must have been inundated by the tsunami prior to the ash fall. A sand layer is also evident within the K-Ah tephra layer, suggesting that the sand layer was probably formed by a subsequent tsunami wave during the ash fall. These geological evidences for the 7.3 ka tsunami inundation will contribute to a better understanding of the caldera collapse and the resultant tsunami, but also of the tsunami generating system in the eruptive process.

New approach to analysis of strongest earthquakes with upper-value magnitude in subduction zones and induced by them catastrophic tsunamis on examples of catastrophic events in 21 century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garagash, I. A.; Lobkovsky, L. I.; Mazova, R. Kh.

2012-04-01

The study of generation of strongest earthquakes with upper-value magnitude (near above 9) and induced by them catastrophic tsunamis, is performed by authors on the basis of new approach to the generation process, occurring in subduction zones under earthquake. The necessity of performing of such studies is connected with recent 11 March 2011 catastrophic underwater earthquake close to north-east Japan coastline and following it catastrophic tsunami which had led to vast victims and colossal damage for Japan. The essential importance in this study is determined by unexpected for all specialists the strength of earthquake occurred (determined by magnitude M = 9), inducing strongest tsunami with wave height runup on the beach up to 10 meters. The elaborated by us model of interaction of ocean lithosphere with island-arc blocks in subduction zones, with taking into account of incomplete stress discharge at realization of seismic process and further accumulation of elastic energy, permits to explain arising of strongest mega-earthquakes, such as catastrophic earthquake with source in Japan deep-sea trench in March, 2011. In our model, the wide possibility for numerical simulation of dynamical behaviour of underwater seismic source is provided by kinematical model of seismic source as well as by elaborated by authors numerical program for calculation of tsunami wave generation by dynamical and kinematical seismic sources. The method obtained permits take into account the contribution of residual tectonic stress in lithosphere plates, leading to increase of earthquake energy, which is usually not taken into account up to date.

Empirical Fragility Analysis of Buildings and Boats Damaged By the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami and Their Practical Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suppasri, A.; Charvet, I.; Leelawat, N.; Fukutani, Y.; Muhari, A.; Futami, T.; Imamura, F.

2014-12-01

This study focused in turn on detailed data of buildings and boats damage caused by the 2011 tsunami in order to understand its main causes and provide damage probability estimates. Tsunami-induced building damage data was collected from field surveys, and includes inundation depth, building material, number of stories and occupancy type for more than 80,000 buildings. Numerical simulations with high resolution bathymetry and topography data were conducted to obtain characteristic tsunami measures such as flow velocity. These data were analyzed using advanced statistical methods, ordinal regression analysis to create not only empirical 2D tsunami fragility curves, but also 3D tsunami fragility surfaces for the first time. The effect of floating debris was also considered, by using a binary indicator of debris impact based on the proximity of a structure from a debris source (i.e. washed away building). Both the 2D and 3D fragility analyses provided results for each different building damage level, and different topography. While 2D fragility curves provide easily interpretable results relating tsunami flow depth to damage probability for different damage levels, 3D fragility surfaces allow for several influential tsunami parameters to be taken into account thus reduce uncertainty in the probability estimations. More than 20,000 damaged boats were used in the analysis similar to the one carried out on the buildings. Detailed data for each boat comprises information on the damage ratio (paid value over insured value), tonnage, engine type, material type and damage classification. The 2D and 3D fragility analyses were developed using representative tsunami heights for each port obtained from field surveys and flow velocities obtained from the aforementioned simulations. The results are currently being adapted for practical disaster mitigation. They are being integrated with the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis, in order to create offshore and onshore probabilistic hazard maps. Through the GPS and embedded calculation function based on the aforementioned fragility results, these applications can be used in the field for a quick estimation of possible building damage, as well as a decision support system for fishermen (whether or not they should move their boats to the deep sea upon tsunami arrival).

Building strategies for tsunami scenarios databases to be used in a tsunami early warning decision support system: an application to western Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2012-04-01

One of the most challenging goals that the geo-scientific community is facing after the catastrophic tsunami occurred on December 2004 in the Indian Ocean is to develop the so-called "next generation" Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Indeed, the meaning of "next generation" does not refer to the aim of a TEWS, which obviously remains to detect whether a tsunami has been generated or not by a given source and, in the first case, to send proper warnings and/or alerts in a suitable time to all the countries and communities that can be affected by the tsunami. Instead, "next generation" identifies with the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) that, in general terms, relies on 1) an integrated set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors whose objective is to detect and characterise the possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitor instrumentally the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios to be suitably combined based on the information coming from the sensor environment and to be used to forecast the degree of exposition of different coastal places both in the near- and in the far-field, 3) a proper overall (software) system architecture. The EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project aims at developing such a DSS and has selected two test areas in the Euro-Mediterranean region, namely the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean (Turkish coasts). In this study, we discuss the strategies that are being adopted in TRIDEC to build the databases of pre-computed tsunami scenarios and we show some applications to the western Iberian margin. In particular, two different databases are being populated, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB). The VSDB contains detailed simulations of few selected earthquake-generated tsunamis. The cases provided by the members of the VSDB are computed "real events"; in other words, they represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC platform must be able to recognise and match during the early crisis management phase. The MSDB contains a very large number (order of thousands) of tsunami simulations performed starting from many different simple earthquake sources of different magnitudes and located in the "vicinity" of the virtual scenario earthquake. Examples from both databases will be presented.

Verification of Reproduction Simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami Using Time-Stamp Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honma, Motohiro; Ushiyama, Motoyuki

2014-05-01

In the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake tsunami, the significant damage and loss of lives were caused by large tsunami in the pacific coastal areas of the northern Japan. It is important to understand the situation of tsunami inundation in detail in order to establish the effective measures of disaster prevention. In this study, we calculated the detailed tsunami inundation simulation of Rikuzentakata city and verified the simulation results using not only the static observed data such as inundation area and tsunami height estimated by traces but also time stamp data which were recorded to digital camera etc. We calculated the tsunami simulation by non-linear long-wave theory using the staggered grid and leap flog scheme. We used Fujii and Satake (2011)'s model ver.4.2 as the tsunami source. The inundation model of Rikuzentakata city was constructed by fine ground level data of 10m mesh. In this simulation, the shore and river banks were set in boundary of calculation mesh. At that time, we have calculated two patterns of simulation, one condition is that a bank doesn't collapse even if tsunami overflows on it, another condition is that a bank collapses if tsunami overflows on it and its discharge exceeds the threshold. We can use the inundation area data, which was obtained by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI), and height data of tsunami trace, which were obtained by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Joint Survey (TTJS) group, as "static" verification data. Comparing the inundation area of simulation result with its observation by GSI, both areas are matched very well. And then, correlation coefficient between tsunami height data resulted from simulation and observed by TTJS is 0.756. In order to verify tsunami arrival time, we used the time stamp data which were recorded to digital camera etc. by citizens. Ushiyama and Yokomaku (2012) collected these tsunami stamp data and estimated the arrival time in Rikuzentakata city. We compared the arrival time resulted from tsunami simulation with estimated by Ushiyama and Yokomaku (2012) for some major points. The arrival time is earlier 2-4 minutes in the condition that a bank collapses when tsunami overflows and its discharge exceeds 0.05m2/s at each mesh boundary than in the condition that a bank doesn't collapse. And, on the whole the arrival time estimated from time stamp data is in accord with the result which were calculated in the condition that a bank collapse. We could verify reproducibility about not only the final tsunami inundation situation but also the temporal change of tsunami inundation situation by using the time stamp data. Acknowledgement In this study, we used tsunami trace data obtained by The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey (TTJS) Group. Reference 1) Fujii and Satake: Tsunami Source of the Off Tohoku-Pacific Earthquake on March 11, 2011, http://iisee.kenken.go.jp/staff/fujii/OffTohokuPacific2011/tsunami_ja_ver4.2and4.6.html, 2011. 2) Ushiyama and Yokomaku: Estimation of situation in Rikuzentakata city just before tsunami attack based on time stamp data, J.JSNDS31-1, pp.47-58, 2012.

The Role of Near-Shore Bathymetry During Tsunami Inundation in a Reef Island Setting: A Case Study of Tutuila Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilmen, Derya I.; Roe, Gerard H.; Wei, Yong; Titov, Vasily V.

2018-04-01

On September 29, 2009 at 17:48 UTC, an M w = 8.1 earthquake in the Tonga Trench generated a tsunami that caused heavy damage across Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga. One of the worst hits was the volcanic island of Tutuila in American Samoa. Tutuila has a typical tropical island bathymetry setting influenced by coral reefs, and so the event provided an opportunity to evaluate the relationship between tsunami dynamics and the bathymetry in that typical island environment. Previous work has come to differing conclusions regarding how coral reefs affect tsunami dynamics through their influence on bathymetry and dissipation. This study presents numerical simulations of this event with a focus on two main issues: first, how roughness variations affect tsunami run-up and whether different values of Manning's roughness parameter, n, improve the simulated run-up compared to observations; and second, how depth variations in the shelf bathymetry with coral reefs control run-up and inundation on the island coastlines they shield. We find that no single value of n provides a uniformly good match to all observations; and we find substantial bay-to-bay variations in the impact of varying n. The results suggest that there are aspects of tsunami wave dissipation which are not captured by a simplified drag formulation used in shallow-water waves model. The study also suggests that the primary impact of removing the near-shore bathymetry in coral reef environment is to reduce run-up, from which we conclude that, at least in this setting, the impact of the near-shore bathymetry is to increase run-up and inundation.

The Role of Near-Shore Bathymetry During Tsunami Inundation in a Reef Island Setting: A Case Study of Tutuila Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilmen, Derya I.; Roe, Gerard H.; Wei, Yong; Titov, Vasily V.

2018-02-01

On September 29, 2009 at 17:48 UTC, an M w = 8.1 earthquake in the Tonga Trench generated a tsunami that caused heavy damage across Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga. One of the worst hits was the volcanic island of Tutuila in American Samoa. Tutuila has a typical tropical island bathymetry setting influenced by coral reefs, and so the event provided an opportunity to evaluate the relationship between tsunami dynamics and the bathymetry in that typical island environment. Previous work has come to differing conclusions regarding how coral reefs affect tsunami dynamics through their influence on bathymetry and dissipation. This study presents numerical simulations of this event with a focus on two main issues: first, how roughness variations affect tsunami run-up and whether different values of Manning's roughness parameter, n, improve the simulated run-up compared to observations; and second, how depth variations in the shelf bathymetry with coral reefs control run-up and inundation on the island coastlines they shield. We find that no single value of n provides a uniformly good match to all observations; and we find substantial bay-to-bay variations in the impact of varying n. The results suggest that there are aspects of tsunami wave dissipation which are not captured by a simplified drag formulation used in shallow-water waves model. The study also suggests that the primary impact of removing the near-shore bathymetry in coral reef environment is to reduce run-up, from which we conclude that, at least in this setting, the impact of the near-shore bathymetry is to increase run-up and inundation.

Tsunami simulations of the 1867 Virgin Island earthquake: Constraints on epicenter location and fault parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barkan, Roy; ten Brink, Uri S.

2010-01-01

The 18 November 1867 Virgin Island earthquake and the tsunami that closely followed caused considerable loss of life and damage in several places in the northeast Caribbean region. The earthquake was likely a manifestation of the complex tectonic deformation of the Anegada Passage, which cuts across the Antilles island arc between the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. In this article, we attempt to characterize the 1867 earthquake with respect to fault orientation, rake, dip, fault dimensions, and first tsunami wave propagating phase, using tsunami simulations that employ high-resolution multibeam bathymetry. In addition, we present new geophysical and geological observations from the region of the suggested earthquake source. Results of our tsunami simulations based on relative amplitude comparison limit the earthquake source to be along the northern wall of the Virgin Islands basin, as suggested by Reid and Taber (1920), or on the carbonate platform north of the basin, and not in the Virgin Islands basin, as commonly assumed. The numerical simulations suggest the 1867 fault was striking 120°–135° and had a mixed normal and left-lateral motion. First propagating wave phase analysis suggests a fault striking 300°–315° is also possible. The best-fitting rupture length was found to be relatively small (50 km), probably indicating the earthquake had a moment magnitude of ∼7.2. Detailed multibeam echo sounder surveys of the Anegada Passage bathymetry between St. Croix and St. Thomas reveal a scarp, which cuts the northern wall of the Virgin Islands basin. High-resolution seismic profiles further indicate it to be a reasonable fault candidate. However, the fault orientation and the orientation of other subparallel faults in the area are more compatible with right-lateral motion. For the other possible source region, no clear disruption in the bathymetry or seismic profiles was found on the carbonate platform north of the basin.

Computed inundation heights of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami compared to measured run-up data: hints for tsunami source inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, G.; Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.

2012-04-01

The 11 March 2011 earthquake that took place off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, North Honshu, with Mw = 9.0, is the largest earthquake ever occurred in Japan, and generated a big tsunami that spread across the Pacific Ocean, causing devastating effects in the prefectures of Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima. It caused more than 15,000 casualties, swept away the low-land quarters of several villages and moreover was the primary cause of the severe nuclear accident in the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. There is a very large set of observations covering both the earthquake and the tsunami, and almost certainly this is the case with the most abundant dataset of high-quality data in the history of seismology and of tsunami science. Local and global seismic networks, continuous GPS networks, coastal tide gauges in Japan ports and across the Pacific, local buoys cabled deep ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPG) and deep-ocean buoys (such as DART) mainly along the foot of the margins of the pacific continents, all contributed essential data to constrain the source of the earthquake and of the tsunami. In this paper we will use also the observed run-up data to put further constraints on the source and to better determine the distribution of the slip on the offshore fault. This will be done through trial-and-error forward modeling, that is by comparing inundation data calculated by means of numerical tsunami simulations in the near field to tsunami run-up heights measured during field surveys conducted by several teams and made available on the net. Major attention will be devoted to reproduce observations in the prefectures that were more affected and where run-up heights are very large (namely Iwate and Miyagi). The simulations are performed by means of the finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna, Italy, that can solve both the linear and non-linear versions of the shallow-water equations on nested grids and with dynamically moving shorelines.

Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Larreynaga, J.; González, M.; Castro, M.; Gavidia, F.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; González-Riancho, P.; Carreño, E.

2013-05-01

El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has approximately a length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there have been 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and hundreds of victims. The hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached from both Probabilistic and Deterministic Methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold, on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps and from the elevation in the near-shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences - finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the Linear and Non-linear Shallow Water Equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake generated tsunami scenarios. In the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4 m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible.

Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Larreynaga, J.; González, M.; Castro, M.; Gavidia, F.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; González-Riancho, P.; Carreño, E.

2013-11-01

El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences-finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high-resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4 m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible.

The 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the southeastern Pacific: Coastal and offshore measurements and numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, C. W.; Eble, M. C.; Rabinovich, A.; Titov, V. V.

2016-12-01

The Mw = 9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the coast of Sumatra generated a catastrophic tsunami that crossed the Indian Ocean and was widespread in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans being recorded by a great number of coastal tide gauges located in 15-25 thousand kilometers from the source area. The data from these instruments throughout the world oceans enabled estimates of various statistical parameters and energy decay of this event. However, only very few open-ocean records of this tsunami had been obtained. A unique high-resolution record of this tsunami from DART 32401 located offshore of northern Chile, combined with the South American mainland tide gauge measurements and the data from three island stations (San Felix, Juan Fernandez and Easter) enabled us to examine far-field characteristics of the event in the southeastern Pacific and to compare the results of global numerical simulations with observations. The maximum wave height measured at DART 32401 was only 1.8 cm but the signal was very clear and reliable. Despite their small heights, the waves demonstrated consistent spatial and temporal structure and good agreement with DART 46405/NeMO records in the NE Pacific. The travel time from the source area to DART 32401 was 25h 55min in good agreement with the computed travel time (25h 45min) and consistent with the times obtained from the nearby coastal tide gauges. This agreement was much better than it followed from the direct travel time estimation based classical kinematic theory that gave the travel time approximately 1.5 hrs shorter than observed. The later actual arrival of the 2004 tsunami waves corresponds to the most energetically economic path along the mid-ocean ridge wave-guides, which is distinctly reproduced by the numerical model. Also, the numerical model described well the frequency content, amplitudes and general structure of the observed waves at this DART and the three island stations. Maximum wave heights in this region were identified at Arica (72 cm) and Callao (65 cm). The open-ocean and coastal records indicate that the 2004 tsunami wave energy occupied the period band of 6 min to 3.7 hrs with the main energy concentrated at periods of 30 to 70 min and peak values at 40 min.

Tsunami Induced Resonance in Enclosed Basins; Case Study of Haydarpasa Port In Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kian, Rozita; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey; Aytore, Betul

2015-04-01

Coincidence of the frequency of forcing mechanisms and the natural frequency of free oscillations in the harbors or basins leads to formation of resonance oscillations and additional amplifications in the basins. This phenomenon becomes much more critical when it is caused by a tsunamis. In the cases of tsunami induced basin resonances, the wave amplifications may occur with more and unexpected damages. The harbor resilience against the marine hazards is important for the performance and success of recovery operations. Classifying the tsunami effects on the ports and harbors and on their functions is the main concern of this study. There are two types of impacts; direct impacts including structural damages due to strong currents, high water elevation and indirect ones because of basin resonance expose to seiche oscillations. The sea of Marmara has experienced numerous (more than 30) tsunamis in history where a highly populated metropolitan city Istanbul is located at North coast of Maramara sea. There are numerous ports and harbors located at Istanbul Coast. Haydarpasa port (41.0033 N, 29.0139 E) in Istanbul coast near Marmara sea, as a case study is selected to test its resilience under tsunami attack by numerical experiments. There are two breakwaters in Haydarpasa port with total length of three kilometers and the shape of basins are regular. Applying numerical model (NAMI DANCE) which solves nonlinear form of shallow water equations, the resonance oscillations in Haydarpasa Port is investigated by following the method given in Yalciner and Pelinovsky, (2006). In the applications, high resolution bathymetry and topography are used and an initial impulse is inputted to the study domain in the simulations. The computed time histories of water surface fluctuations at different locations inside the harbor are analyzed by using Fast Fourier Transform technique. The frequencies where the peaks of spectrum curves indicates the amplification of waves in the respective gauge location. Therefore these frequencies are the natural frequencies of the Haydarpasa port. The peak points in the spectrum curves are selected as the the resonance frequencies of the Haydarpasa port. Furthermore the coincidence of these frequencies with the frequency of waves of extreme events are discussed and consequent amplification in the Harbor and their effects on harbor operations are discussed.

New Activities of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.

2013-12-01

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is comprised of representatives from coastal states and federal agencies who, under the guidance of NOAA, work together to develop protocols and products to help communities prepare for and mitigate tsunami hazards. Within the NTHMP are several subcommittees responsible for complimentary aspects of tsunami assessment, mitigation, education, warning, and response. The Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS) is comprised of state and federal scientists who specialize in tsunami source characterization, numerical tsunami modeling, inundation map production, and warning forecasting. Until September 2012, much of the work of the MMS was authorized through the Tsunami Warning and Education Act, an Act that has since expired but the spirit of which is being adhered to in parallel with reauthorization efforts. Over the past several years, the MMS has developed guidance and best practices for states and territories to produce accurate and consistent tsunami inundation maps for community level evacuation planning, and has conducted benchmarking of numerical inundation models. Recent tsunami events have highlighted the need for other types of tsunami hazard analyses and products for improving evacuation planning, vertical evacuation, maritime planning, land-use planning, building construction, and warning forecasts. As the program responsible for producing accurate and consistent tsunami products nationally, the NTHMP-MMS is initiating a multi-year plan to accomplish the following: 1) Create and build on existing demonstration projects that explore new tsunami hazard analysis techniques and products, such as maps identifying areas of strong currents and potential damage within harbors as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for land-use planning. 2) Develop benchmarks for validating new numerical modeling techniques related to current velocities and landslide sources. 3) Generate guidance and protocols for the production and use of new tsunami hazard analysis products. 4) Identify multistate collaborations and funding partners interested in these new products. Application of these new products will improve the overall safety and resilience of coastal communities exposed to tsunami hazards.

Assessing Potential Tsunami Sources for Extreme Wave Deposits on Southwest Isla de Mona, Puerto Rico, Using Numerical Simulations and Hydrodynamic Boulder Transport Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matos-Llavona, P. I.; Lopez, A. M.; Jaffe, B. E.; Richmond, B. M.

2017-12-01

Extreme waves on coastlines pose a threat to human life, habitats, and critical coastal infrastructure. Geological evidence of extreme waves can provide valuable information on the magnitude, frequency, wave characteristics and source of past events, thus improving coastal hazard assessment. Reef-rock boulders, as much as 5m in diameter, are found up to 500 m inland on the southwestern coast of Isla de Mona, Puerto Rico. These boulders were emplaced 4000 years ago based on age dates from encrusting corals (Taggart et al., 1993). This study aims to identify an event capable of forming these deposits. For this, a numerical model of the 1918 Mona Passage tsunami was constructed using the New Evolution of Ocean Wave (NEOWAVE) model with three nested grids of 3, 1 and 1/3 arc-second resolution, respectively. A second simulation of a submarine landslide (1km3 volume) located 300m from the southwestern Mona shoreline was run using 3D Tsunami Solution Using Navier-Stokes Algorithm with Multiple Interfaces (TSUNAMI3D). The resulting inundation and wave heights at the shoreline are compared to minimum wave heights required to initiate transport (sub-aerial and submerged) of measured boulders and idealized cubic boulders with varying volumes. The 1918 Mona Passage tsunami simulation shows no significant inundation on the SSW Mona coast and a maximum wave height of 1.3m, which is below the minimum wave height required to initiate transport of a 1m diameter boulder. This result suggests that a tsunami like the one generated in 1918 is not capable of transporting even the smaller boulders. However, the submarine landslide generated extensive inundation on the SW coast with maximum wave height of 10m at the shoreline, 20m run-up, and 900m inundation distance. This is greater than the minimum wave height needed to initiate transport in both submerged and subaerial pre-transport settings; therefore, a submarine landslide with characteristics of the modeled landslide can form the boulder deposits observed. Marine geological surveys providing dates of landslides found in deep waters south of Mona Island will be required to validate this hypothesis. Taggart, B.E. et al., 1993, Holocene reef-rock boulders on Isla de Mona, Puerto Rico, transported by a hurricane or seismic sea wave. GSA, Abstract with Programs v. 25(6), p. 61.

Numerical modeling of landslide-generated tsunami using adaptive unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Cian; Collins, Gareth; Desousa Costa, Patrick; Piggott, Matthew

2010-05-01

Landslides impacting into or occurring under water generate waves, which can have devastating environmental consequences. Depending on the characteristics of the landslide the waves can have significant amplitude and potentially propagate over large distances. Linear models of classical earthquake-generated tsunamis cannot reproduce the highly nonlinear generation mechanisms required to accurately predict the consequences of landslide-generated tsunamis. Also, laboratory-scale experimental investigation is limited to simple geometries and short time-scales before wave reflections contaminate the data. Computational fluid dynamics models based on the nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations can simulate landslide-tsunami generation at realistic scales. However, traditional chessboard-like structured meshes introduce superfluous resolution and hence the computing power required for such a simulation can be prohibitively high, especially in three dimensions. Unstructured meshes allow the grid spacing to vary rapidly from high resolution in the vicinity of small scale features to much coarser, lower resolution in other areas. Combining this variable resolution with dynamic mesh adaptivity allows such high resolution zones to follow features like the interface between the landslide and the water whilst minimising the computational costs. Unstructured meshes are also better suited to representing complex geometries and bathymetries allowing more realistic domains to be simulated. Modelling multiple materials, like water, air and a landslide, on an unstructured adaptive mesh poses significant numerical challenges. Novel methods of interface preservation must be considered and coupled to a flow model in such a way that ensures conservation of the different materials. Furthermore this conservation property must be maintained during successive stages of mesh optimisation and interpolation. In this paper we validate a new multi-material adaptive unstructured fluid dynamics model against the well-known Lituya Bay landslide-generated wave experiment and case study [1]. In addition, we explore the effect of physical parameters, such as the shape, velocity and viscosity of the landslide, on wave amplitude and run-up, to quantify their influence on the landslide-tsunami hazard. As well as reproducing the experimental results, the model is shown to have excellent conservation and bounding properties. It also requires fewer nodes than an equivalent resolution fixed mesh simulation, therefore minimising at least one aspect of the computational cost. These computational savings are directly transferable to higher dimensions and some initial three dimensional results are also presented. These reproduce the experiments of DiRisio et al. [2], where an 80cm long landslide analogue was released from the side of an 8.9m diameter conical island in a 50 × 30m tank of water. The resulting impact between the landslide and the water generated waves with an amplitude of 1cm at wave gauges around the island. The range of scales that must be considered in any attempt to numerically reproduce this experiment makes it an ideal case study for our multi-material adaptive unstructured fluid dynamics model. [1] FRITZ, H. M., MOHAMMED, F., & YOO, J. 2009. Lituya Bay Landslide Impact Generated Mega-Tsunami 50th Anniversary. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 166(1), 153-175. [2] DIRISIO, M., DEGIROLAMO, P., BELLOTTI, G., PANIZZO, A., ARISTODEMO, F.,

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2017-12-01

This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Tsunami simulation using submarine displacement calculated from simulation of ground motion due to seismic source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akiyama, S.; Kawaji, K.; Fujihara, S.

2013-12-01

Since fault fracturing due to an earthquake can simultaneously cause ground motion and tsunami, it is appropriate to evaluate the ground motion and the tsunami by single fault model. However, several source models are used independently in the ground motion simulation or the tsunami simulation, because of difficulty in evaluating both phenomena simultaneously. Many source models for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake are proposed from the inversion analyses of seismic observations or from those of tsunami observations. Most of these models show the similar features, which large amount of slip is located at the shallower part of fault area near the Japan Trench. This indicates that the ground motion and the tsunami can be evaluated by the single source model. Therefore, we examine the possibility of the tsunami prediction, using the fault model estimated from seismic observation records. In this study, we try to carry out the tsunami simulation using the displacement field of oceanic crustal movements, which is calculated from the ground motion simulation of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. We use two fault models by Yoshida et al. (2011), which are based on both the teleseismic body wave and on the strong ground motion records. Although there is the common feature in those fault models, the amount of slip near the Japan trench is lager in the fault model from the strong ground motion records than in that from the teleseismic body wave. First, the large-scale ground motion simulations applying those fault models used by the voxel type finite element method are performed for the whole eastern Japan. The synthetic waveforms computed from the simulations are generally consistent with the observation records of K-NET (Kinoshita (1998)) and KiK-net stations (Aoi et al. (2000)), deployed by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). Next, the tsunami simulations are performed by the finite difference calculation based on the shallow water theory. The initial wave height for tsunami generation is estimated from the vertical displacement of ocean bottom due to the crustal movements, which is obtained from the ground motion simulation mentioned above. The results of tsunami simulations are compared with the observations of the GPS wave gauges to evaluate the validity for the tsunami prediction using the fault model based on the seismic observation records.

Tsunamis generated by eruptions from mount st. Augustine volcano, alaska.

PubMed

Kienle, J; Kowalik, Z; Murty, T S

1987-06-12

During an eruption of the Alaskan volcano Mount St. Augustine in the spring of 1986, there was concern about the possibility that a tsunami might be generated by the collapse of a portion of the volcano into the shallow water of Cook Inlet. A similar edifice collapse of the volcano and ensuing sea wave occurred during an eruption in 1883. Other sea waves resulting in great loss of life and property have been generated by the eruption of coastal volcanos around the world. Although Mount St. Augustine remained intact during this eruptive cycle, a possible recurrence of the 1883 events spurred a numerical simulation of the 1883 sea wave. This simulation, which yielded a forecast of potential wave heights and travel times, was based on a method that could be applied generally to other coastal volcanos.

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami and introduction of two level tsunamis for tsunami disaster mitigation

PubMed Central

SATO, Shinji

2015-01-01

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami have been revealed by collaborative tsunami surveys extensively performed under the coordination of the Joint Tsunami Survey Group. The complex behaviors of the mega-tsunami were characterized by the unprecedented scale and the low occurrence frequency. The limitation and the performance of tsunami countermeasures were described on the basis of tsunami surveys, laboratory experiments and numerical analyses. These findings contributed to the introduction of two-level tsunami hazards to establish a new strategy for tsunami disaster mitigation, combining structure-based flood protection designed by the Level-1 tsunami and non-structure-based damage reduction planned by the Level-2 tsunami. PMID:26062739

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami and introduction of two level tsunamis for tsunami disaster mitigation.

PubMed

Sato, Shinji

2015-01-01

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami have been revealed by collaborative tsunami surveys extensively performed under the coordination of the Joint Tsunami Survey Group. The complex behaviors of the mega-tsunami were characterized by the unprecedented scale and the low occurrence frequency. The limitation and the performance of tsunami countermeasures were described on the basis of tsunami surveys, laboratory experiments and numerical analyses. These findings contributed to the introduction of two-level tsunami hazards to establish a new strategy for tsunami disaster mitigation, combining structure-based flood protection designed by the Level-1 tsunami and non-structure-based damage reduction planned by the Level-2 tsunami.

New Insights into the Source of the Makran Tsunami of 27 November 1945 from Tsunami Waveforms and Coastal Deformation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji

2015-03-01

We constrain the source of the 27 November 1945 tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) using available tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges at Mumbai (India) and Karachi (Pakistan), and that inferred at Port Victoria (Seychelles), and coseismic deformation data along the Makran coast. Spectral analysis of the tsunami waveforms shows that the tsunami governing period was 40-50 min at Karachi whereas it was around 22 min at Mumbai. The inferred tsunami waveform at Port Victoria also indicated a period of around 21 min for the tsunami. Tsunami numerical simulations from the previously proposed source models failed in reproducing the observed tsunami waveforms and coseismic deformation data. Sensitivity analysis showed that the source fault needs to be extended offshore into deep water in order to reproduce the first 22-min signal at Mumbai. Based on the inversion of the observed tsunami waveforms, we propose a four-segment fault with varying slip amounts as the final source. This source includes a slip of 4.3 m onshore near Ormara (Pakistan) and a slip of 10 m offshore at water depth of around 3,000 m. The total fault length is 220 km, and the average slip is 6.1 m. This source, first, reproduces fairly well the observed tide gauge records at Mumbai and Karachi, second, produces ~1 m of uplift at Ormara and ~1 m of subsidence at Pasni, and third, gives a moment magnitude of 8.3 for the earthquake, which is in the acceptable range of seismic data. The computed 1 m uplift at Ormara is in the uplift range of 1-3 m reported in the literature. As the tide gauge stations were located in the far field, our proposed source explains mainly the tectonic source of the tsunami.

Numerical experiment on tsunami deposit distribution process by using tsunami sediment transport model in historical tsunami event of megathrust Nankai trough earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, K.; Sugawara, D.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

A large flow caused by tsunami transports sediments from beach and forms tsunami deposits in land and coastal lakes. A tsunami deposit has been found in their undisturbed on coastal lakes especially. Okamura & Matsuoka (2012) found some tsunami deposits in the field survey of coastal lakes facing to the Nankai trough, and tsunami deposits due to the past eight Nankai Trough megathrust earthquakes they identified. The environment in coastal lakes is stably calm and suitable for tsunami deposits preservation compared to other topographical conditions such as plains. Therefore, there is a possibility that the recurrence interval of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis will be discussed with high resolution. In addition, it has been pointed out that small events that cannot be detected in plains could be separated finely (Sawai, 2012). Various aspects of past tsunami is expected to be elucidated, in consideration of topographical conditions of coastal lakes by using the relationship between the erosion-and-sedimentation process of the lake bottom and the external force of tsunami. In this research, numerical examination based on tsunami sediment transport model (Takahashi et al., 1999) was carried out on the site Ryujin-ike pond of Ohita, Japan where tsunami deposit was identified, and deposit migration analysis was conducted on the tsunami deposit distribution process of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Furthermore, examination of tsunami source conditions is possibly investigated by comparison studies of the observed data and the computation of tsunami deposit distribution. It is difficult to clarify details of tsunami source from indistinct information of paleogeographical conditions. However, this result shows that it can be used as a constraint condition of the tsunami source scale by combining tsunami deposit distribution in lakes with computation data.

Modeling the propagation, transformation and the impact of tsunami on urban areas using the coupling STOC-ML/IC/CADMAS in nested grids - Application to specific sites of Chile to improve the tsunami induced loads prediction.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mokrani, C.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Arikawa, T.

2016-02-01

A large part of coasts around the world are affected by tsunami impacts, which supposes a challenge when designing coastal protection structures. Numerical models provide predictions of tsunami-induced loads and there time evolution, which can be used to improve sizing rules of coastal structures. However, the numerical assessment of impact loads is an hard stake. Indeed, recent experimental studies have shown that pressure dynamics generated during tsunami impacts are highly sensitive to the incident local shape of the tsunami. Therefore, high numerical resolutions and very accurate models are required to model all stages during which the tsunami shape is modified before the impact. Given the large distances involved in tsunami events, this can be disregarded in favor of computing time. The Port and Airport Research Institute (PARI) has recently developed a three-way coupled model which allows to accurately model the incident tsunami shape while maintaining reasonable computational time. This coupling approach uses three models used in nested grids (cf. Figure 1). The first one (STOC-ML) solves Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations with hydrostatic pressure. It is used to model the tsunami propagation off the coast. The second one (STOC-IC) is a 3D non-hydrostatic model, on which the free-surface position is estimated through the integrated continuity equation. It has shown to accurately describe dispersive and weakly linear effects occurring at the coast vicinity. The third model (CADMAS-SURF) solves fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and use a VOF method. Highly nonlinear, dispersive effects and wave breaking processes can be included at the wave scale and therefore, a very accurate description of the incident tsunami is provided. Each model have been separately validated from analytical and/or experimental data. The present objective is to highlight recent advances in Coastal Ocean modeling for tsunami modeling and loads prediction by applying this coupling approach to different sites of the Chilean coast. We first present validation tests to highlight the numerical abilities of this coupling. Then, two tsunami cases are considered and both near-shore processes and tsunami-induced loads on structures are analyzed.

Tsunami Source Inversion Using Tide Gauge and DART Tsunami Waveforms of the 2017 Mw8.2 Mexico Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adriano, Bruno; Fujii, Yushiro; Koshimura, Shunichi; Mas, Erick; Ruiz-Angulo, Angel; Estrada, Miguel

2018-01-01

On September 8, 2017 (UTC), a normal-fault earthquake occurred 87 km off the southeast coast of Mexico. This earthquake generated a tsunami that was recorded at coastal tide gauge and offshore buoy stations. First, we conducted a numerical tsunami simulation using a single-fault model to understand the tsunami characteristics near the rupture area, focusing on the nearby tide gauge stations. Second, the tsunami source of this event was estimated from inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at six coastal stations and three buoys located in the deep ocean. Using the aftershock distribution within 1 day following the main shock, the fault plane orientation had a northeast dip direction (strike = 320°, dip = 77°, and rake =-92°). The results of the tsunami waveform inversion revealed that the fault area was 240 km × 90 km in size with most of the largest slip occurring on the middle and deepest segments of the fault. The maximum slip was 6.03 m from a 30 × 30 km2 segment that was 64.82 km deep at the center of the fault area. The estimated slip distribution showed that the main asperity was at the center of the fault area. The second asperity with an average slip of 5.5 m was found on the northwest-most segments. The estimated slip distribution yielded a seismic moment of 2.9 × 10^{21} Nm (Mw = 8.24), which was calculated assuming an average rigidity of 7× 10^{10} N/m2.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-03-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Steps Towards the Implementation of a Tsunami Detection, Warning, Mitigation and Preparedness Program for Southwestern Coastal Areas of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farreras, Salvador; Ortiz, Modesto; Gonzalez, Juan I.

2007-03-01

The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta, is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-04-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Economic losses to buildings due to tsunami impact: the case of Rhodes city, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

2017-04-01

The expected economic losses to buildings due to the tsunami impact is of particular importance for the tsunami risk management. However, only few efforts can be found in this direction. In this study we approached this issue selecting the city of Rhodes Isl., Greece, as a test-site. The methodological steps followed include (a) selection of worst case scenario in the study area based on the tsunami history of the area which includes several powerful events, e.g. 142 AD, 1303, 1481, 1609, 1741, (b) numerical simulation of the tsunami and determination of the inundation zone, (c) application of the DAMASCHE empirical tool, produced by the SCHEMA EU-FP6 project, for the calculation of the damage level expected at each one of the buildings as a function of the water depth in the inundation area, (d) calculation of the buildings that would need reparation after partial damage and of those that would need reconstruction after total destruction, (e) calculation of the cost implied for both reparation and reconstruction. The several data sets which are needed for the execution of these steps, are susceptible to uncertainties and, therefore, the final results are quite sensitive to changes of the data sets. Alternative costs were calculated by taking into account the several uncertainties involved. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.

Propagation of uncertainties for an evaluation of the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone tsunamigenic potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoshchenkova, Ekaterina; Imbert, David; Richet, Yann; Bardet, Lise; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Rebour, Vincent; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is to assess evaluation the tsunamigenic potential of the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone (AGFZ). This work is part of the French project TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modeling; www-tandem.cea.fr), special attention is paid to French Atlantic coasts. Structurally, the AGFZ region is complex and not well understood. However, a lot of its faults produce earthquakes with significant vertical slip, of a type that can result in tsunami. We use the major tsunami event of the AGFZ on purpose to have a regional estimation of the tsunamigenic potential of this zone. The major reported event for this zone is the 1755 Lisbon event. There are large uncertainties concerning source location and focal mechanism of this earthquake. Hence, simple deterministic approach is not sufficient to cover on the one side the whole AGFZ with its geological complexity and on the other side the lack of information concerning the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. A parametric modeling environment Promethée (promethee.irsn.org/doku.php) was coupled to tsunami simulation software based on shallow water equations with the aim of propagation of uncertainties. Such a statistic point of view allows us to work with multiple hypotheses simultaneously. In our work we introduce the seismic source parameters in a form of distributions, thus giving a data base of thousands of tsunami scenarios and tsunami wave height distributions. Exploring our tsunami scenarios data base we present preliminary results for France. Tsunami wave heights (within one standard deviation of the mean) can be about 0.5 m - 1 m for the Atlantic coast and approaching 0.3 m for the English Channel.

The November 17, 2015 Lefkada offshore (non-?)tsunamigenic earthquake: preliminary considerations and implications for tsunami hazard and warning in the Ionian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Zaniboni, Filippo

2016-04-01

A Mw = 6.5 earthquake occurred on November 17, 2015 just offshore the western coast of the Ionian island of Lefkada (western Greece). The earthquake caused two fatalities and severe damage, especially in the island of Lefkada. Several landslides were set in motion by the earthquake, some of which occurred along the coastal cliffs. The earthquake was clearly felt also along the eastern coasts of Apulia, Calabria and Sicily (Italy). The computed focal mechanisms indicate that the rupture occurred along a dextral strike-slip, sub-vertical fault, compatible with the well-known transcurrent tectonics of the Lefkada-Cephalonia area. At the time of the drafting of this abstract no heterogeneous slip distribution has been proposed. No clear evidence of tsunami effects is available, with the only exception of the signal recorded by the tide gauge in Crotone (eastern Calabria, Italy), where a clear disturbance (still to be fully characterised and explained) emerges from the background at approximately 1 hour after the earthquake origin time. From the tsunami research point of view, the November 17 Lefkada earthquake poses at least two problems, which we try to address in this paper. The first consists in studying the tsunami generation based on the available seismic information and on the tectonic setting of the area. We present results of numerical simulations of the tsunami generation and propagation aimed at casting light on the reasons why the generated tsunami was so weak (or even absent). Starting from the official fault parameters provided by the seismic agencies, we vary a number of them, there including the length and width calculated on the basis of different regression formulas, and the depth. For each configuration we perform tsunami simulations by means of the in-house finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD. In parallel, we analyse the Crotone tide-gauge record in order to understand whether the observed "anomalous" signal can be attributed to a tsunami or not. In the first case we will try at least to reproduce the observed signal, otherwise we will try to understand whether the non-tsunamigenic nature of the event is confirmed by the tsunami simulations. The second problem is more related to tsunami early warning issues, in particular with the performance of the Tsunami Decision Matrix for the Mediterranean, presently adopted for example by the candidate Tsunami Service Providers at NOA (Greece) and INGV (Italy). We will briefly discuss whether the present form of the matrix, which does not include any information on focal mechanism, is well suited to a peculiar event like the November 17 earthquake, which was of strike-slip nature and had a magnitude lying just at the border between two distinct classes of tsunami potential forecast. This study is funded in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe", Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3), and of the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE ("La Ricerca ITaliana per il MARE").

Frequency Domain Response at Pacific Coast Harbors to Major Tsunamis of 2005-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Xiuying; Kou, Zhiqing; Huang, Ziyi; Lee, Jiin-Jen

2013-06-01

Tsunamis waves caused by submarine earthquake or landslide might contain large wave energy, which could cause significant human loss and property damage locally as well as in distant region. The response of three harbors located at the Pacific coast (i.e. Crescent City Harbor, Los Angeles/Long Beach Port, and San Diego Harbor) to six well-known tsunamis events generated (both near-field and far-field) between 2005 and 2011 are examined and simulated using a hybrid finite element numerical model in frequency domain. The model incorporated the effects of wave refraction, wave diffraction, partial wave reflection from boundaries, entrance and bottom energy dissipation. It can be applied to harbor regions with arbitrary shapes and variable water depth. The computed resonant periods or modes of oscillation for three harbors are in good agreement with the energy spectral analysis of the time series of water surface elevations recorded at tide gauge stations inside three harbors during the six tsunamis events. The computed wave induced currents based on the present model are also in qualitative agreement with some of the reported eye-witness accounts absence of reliable current data. The simulated results show that each harbor responded differently and significantly amplified certain wave period(s) of incident wave trains according to the shape, topography, characteristic dimensions and water depth of the harbor basins.

Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

2016-04-01

The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk assessment refers to the selection of optimal routes and times needed for evacuation from certain points within the inundation zone to a number of shelters outside the zone. The three different approaches were evaluated as for their overall contribution in the development of a plan for the tsunami risk mitigation. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.

Numerical study of tsunami generated by multiple submarine slope failures in Resurrection Bay, Alaska, during the MW 9.2 1964 earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suleimani, E.; Hansen, R.; Haeussler, Peter J.

2009-01-01

We use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the MW 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m3. Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation. ?? Birkh??user Verlag, Basel 2009.

Tsunami Source Model of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake inferred from Tide Gauge and Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Y.; Satake, K.

2005-12-01

The tsunami generation process of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake were estimated from the tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges and sea surface heights captured by satellite altimetry measurements over the Indian Ocean. The earthquake (0:58:53, 26, Dec., 2004, UTC), the largest in the last 40 years, caused devastating tsunami damages to the countries around the Indian Ocean. One of the important questions is the source length; the aftershocks were distributed along the Sunda trench for 1000 to 1200 km, from off northwestern part of Sumatra island through Nicobar islands to Andaman island, while seismic wave analyses indicate much shorter source length (several hundred km). We used instrumental data of this tsunami, tide gauges and sea surface heights. Tide gauge data have been collected by Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). We have also used another tide gauges data for tsunami simulation analysis. Tsunami propagation was captured as sea surface heights of Jason-1 satellite altimetry measurements over the Indian Ocean for the first time (Gower, 2005). We numerically compute tsunami propagation on actually bathymetry. ETOPO2 (Smith and Sandwell, 1997), the gridded data of global ocean depth from bathymetry soundings and satellite gravity data, are less reliable in the shallow ocean. To improve the accuracy, we have digitized the charts near coasts and merged the digitized data with the ETOPO2 data. The long-wave equation and the equation of motion were numerically solved by finite-difference method (Satake, 1995). As the initial condition, a static deformation of seafloor has been calculated using rectangular fault model (Okada, 1985). The source region is divided into 22 subfaults. We fixed the size and geometry of each subfault, and varied the slip amount and rise time (or slip duration) for each subfault, and rupture velocity. Tsunami waveforms or Greens functions for each subfault were calculated for the rise times of 3, 10, 30 and 60 minutes. Rupture velocities were varied for 0.7, 1.7 and 2.5 km/s. Forward modeling indicates that the best fits between the observed and computed waveforms were obtained in the case of rupture velocity 1.7 km/s and rise time 3 minutes. The slip was large in the southern part of the source region.

Modeling the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami for Introductory Physics Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiLisi, Gregory A.; Rarick, Richard A.

2006-01-01

In this paper we develop materials to address student interest in the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004. We discuss the physical characteristics of tsunamis and some of the specific data regarding the 2004 event. Finally, we create an easy-to-make tsunami tank to run simulations in the classroom. The simulations exhibit three dramatic…

Estimate Tsunami Flow Conditions and Large-Debris Tracks for the Design of Coastal Infrastructures along Coastlines of the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Thomas, S.; Zhou, H.; Arcas, D.; Titov, V. V.

2017-12-01

The increasing potential tsunami hazards pose great challenges for infrastructures along the coastlines of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Tsunami impact at a coastal site is usually assessed from deterministic scenarios based on 10,000 years of geological records in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Aside from these deterministic methods, the new ASCE 7-16 tsunami provisions provide engineering design criteria of tsunami loads on buildings based on a probabilistic approach. This work develops a site-specific model near Newport, OR using high-resolution grids, and compute tsunami inundation depth and velocities at the study site resulted from credible probabilistic and deterministic earthquake sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Three Cascadia scenarios, two deterministic scenarios, XXL1 and L1, and a 2,500-yr probabilistic scenario compliant with the new ASCE 7-16 standard, are simulated using combination of a depth-averaged shallow water model for offshore propagation and a Boussinesq-type model for onshore inundation. We speculate on the methods and procedure to obtain the 2,500-year probabilistic scenario for Newport that is compliant with the ASCE 7-16 tsunami provisions. We provide details of model results, particularly the inundation depth and flow speed for a new building, which will also be designated as a tsunami vertical evacuation shelter, at Newport, Oregon. We show that the ASCE 7-16 consistent hazards are between those obtained from deterministic L1 and XXL1 scenarios, and the greatest impact on the building may come from later waves. As a further step, we utilize the inundation model results to numerically compute tracks of large vessels in the vicinity of the building site and estimate if these vessels will impact on the building site during the extreme XXL1 and ASCE 7-16 hazard-consistent scenarios. Two-step study is carried out first to study tracks of massless particles and then large vessels with assigned mass considering drag force, inertial force, ship grounding and mooring. The simulation results show that none of the large vessels will impact on the building site in all tested scenarios.

Modeling the 2004Indian Ocean Tsunami for Introductory Physics Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiLisi, Gregory A.; Rarick, Richard A.

2006-12-01

In this paper we develop materials to address student interest in the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004. We discuss the physical characteristics of tsunamis and some of the specific data regarding the 2004 event. Finally, we create an easy-to-make tsunami tank to run simulations in the classroom. The simulations exhibit three dramatic signatures of tsunamis, namely, as a tsunami moves into shallow water its amplitude increases, its wavelength and speed decrease, and its leading edge becomes increasingly steep as if to "break" or "crash." Using our tsunami tank, these realistic features were easy to observe in the classroom and evoked an enthusiastic response from our students.

Power and Scour: Laboratory simulations of tsunami-induced scour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd, David; McGovern, David; Whitehouse, Richard; Harris, John; Rossetto, Tiziana

2017-04-01

The world's coastal regions are becoming increasingly urbanised and densely populated. Recent major tsunami events in regions such as Samoa (2007), Indonesia (2004, 2006, 2010), and Japan (2011) have starkly highlighted this effect, resulting in catastrophic loss of both life and property, with much of the damage to buildings being reported in EEFIT mission reports following each of these events. The URBANWAVES project, led by UCL in collaboration with HR Wallingford, brings the power of the tsunami to the laboratory for the first time. The Pneumatic Tsunami Simulator is capable of tsimulating both idealised and real-world tsunami traces at a scale of 1:50. Experiments undertaken in the Fast Flow Facility at HR Wallingford using square and rectangular buildings placed on a sediment bed have allow us to measure, for the first time under laboratory conditions, the variations in the flow field around buildings produced by tsunami waves as a result of the scour process. The results of these tests are presented, providing insight into the process of scour development under different types of tsunami, giving a glimpse into the power of tsunamis that have already occurred, and helping us to inform the designs of future buildings so that we can be better prepared to analyse and design against these failure modes in the future. Additional supporting abstracts include Foster et al., on tsunami induced building loads; Chandler et al., on the tsunami simulation concept and McGovern et al., on the simulation of tsunami-driven scour and flow fields.

High-resolution modeling of tsunami run-up flooding: a case study of flooding in Kamaishi city, Japan, induced by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akoh, Ryosuke; Ishikawa, Tadaharu; Kojima, Takashi; Tomaru, Mahito; Maeno, Shiro

2017-11-01

Run-up processes of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami into the city of Kamaishi, Japan, were simulated numerically using 2-D shallow water equations with a new treatment of building footprints. The model imposes an internal hydraulic condition of permeable and impermeable walls at the building footprint outline on unstructured triangular meshes. Digital data of the building footprint approximated by polygons were overlaid on a 1.0 m resolution terrain model. The hydraulic boundary conditions were ascertained using conventional tsunami propagation calculation from the seismic center to nearshore areas. Run-up flow calculations were conducted under the same hydraulic conditions for several cases having different building permeabilities. Comparison of computation results with field data suggests that the case with a small amount of wall permeability gives better agreement than the case with impermeable condition. Spatial mapping of an indicator for run-up flow intensity (IF = (hU2)max, where h and U respectively denote the inundation depth and flow velocity during the flood, shows fairly good correlation with the distribution of houses destroyed by flooding. As a possible mitigation measure, the influence of the buildings on the flow was assessed using a numerical experiment for solid buildings arrayed alternately in two lines along the coast. Results show that the buildings can prevent seawater from flowing straight to the city center while maintaining access to the sea.

Paleo-tsunami history along the northern Japan Trench: evidence from Noda Village, northern Sanriku coast, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, Taiga; Goto, Kazuhisa; Nishimura, Yuichi; Watanabe, Masashi; Iijima, Yasutaka; Sugawara, Daisuke

2017-12-01

Throughout history, large tsunamis have frequently affected the Sanriku area of the Pacific coast of the Tohoku region, Japan, which faces the Japan Trench. Although a few studies have examined paleo-tsunami deposits along the Sanriku coast, additional studies of paleo-earthquakes and tsunamis are needed to improve our knowledge of the timing, recurrence interval, and size of historical and pre-historic tsunamis. At Noda Village, in Iwate Prefecture on the northern Sanriku coast, we found at least four distinct gravelly sand layers based on correlation and chronological data. Sedimentary features such as grain size and thickness suggest that extreme waves from the sea formed these layers. Numerical modeling of storm waves further confirmed that even extremely large storm waves cannot account for the distribution of the gravelly sand layers, suggesting that these deposits are highly likely to have formed by tsunami waves. The numerical method of storm waves can be useful to identify sand layers as tsunami deposits if the deposits are observed far inland or at high elevations. The depositional age of the youngest tsunami deposit is consistent with the AD 869 Jogan earthquake tsunami, a possible predecessor of the AD 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. If this is the case, then the study site currently defines the possible northern extent of the AD 869 Jogan tsunami deposit, which is an important step in improving the tsunami source model of the AD 869 Jogan tsunami. Our results suggest that four large tsunamis struck the Noda site between 1100 and 2700 cal BP. The local tsunami sizes are comparable to the AD 2011 and AD 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunamis, considering the landward extent of each tsunami deposit.

Simulated tsunami run-up amplification factors around Penang Island for preliminary risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yong Hui; Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye; Tan, Wai Kiat

2017-08-01

The mega-tsunami Andaman that struck Malaysia on 26 December 2004 affected 200 kilometers of northwest Peninsular Malaysia coastline from Perlis to Selangor. It is anticipated by the tsunami scientific community that the next mega-tsunami is due to occur any time soon. This rare catastrophic event has awakened the attention of Malaysian government to take appropriate risk reduction measures, including timely and orderly evacuation. To effectively evacuate ordinary citizens to a safe ground or a nearest designated emergency shelter, a well prepared evacuation route is essential with the estimated tsunami run-up heights and inundation distances on land clearly indicated on the evacuation map. The run-up heights and inundation distances are simulated by an in-house model 2-D TUNA-RP based upon credible scientific tsunami source scenarios derived from tectonic activity around the region. To provide a useful tool for estimating the run-up heights along the entire coast of Penang Island, we computed tsunami amplification factors based upon 2-D TUNA-RP model simulations in this paper. The inundation map and run-up amplification factors in six domains along the entire coastline of Penang Island are provided. The comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrates good agreement.

Confirmation and calibration of computer modeling of tsunamis produced by Augustine volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beget, James E.; Kowalik, Zygmunt

2006-01-01

Numerical modeling has been used to calculate the characteristics of a tsunami generated by a landslide into Cook Inlet from Augustine Volcano. The modeling predicts travel times of ca. 50-75 minutes to the nearest populated areas, and indicates that significant wave amplification occurs near Mt. Iliamna on the western side of Cook Inlet, and near the Nanwelak and the Homer-Anchor Point areas on the east side of Cook Inlet. Augustine volcano last produced a tsunami during an eruption in 1883, and field evidence of the extent and height of the 1883 tsunamis can be used to test and constrain the results of the computer modeling. Tsunami deposits on Augustine Island indicate waves near the landslide source were more than 19 m high, while 1883 tsunami deposits in distal sites record waves 6-8 m high. Paleotsunami deposits were found at sites along the coast near Mt. Iliamna, Nanwelak, and Homer, consistent with numerical modeling indicating significant tsunami wave amplification occurs in these areas. 

ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

2014-12-01

Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant enhancement of the Tsunami Warning System in the NEAM region in terms of monitoring, early warning and forecast, governance and resilience. This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3)

How Perturbing Ocean Floor Disturbs Tsunami Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salaree, A.; Okal, E.

2017-12-01

Bathymetry maps play, perhaps the most crucial role in optimal tsunami simulations. Regardless of the simulation method, on one hand, it is desirable to include every detailed bathymetry feature in the simulation grids in order to predict tsunami amplitudes as accurately as possible, but on the other hand, large grids result in long simulation times. It is therefore, of interest to investigate a "sufficiency" level - if any - for the amount of details in bathymetry grids needed to reconstruct the most important features in tsunami simulations, as obtained from the actual bathymetry. In this context, we use a spherical harmonics series approach to decompose the bathymetry of the Pacific ocean into its components down to a resolution of 4 degrees (l=100) and create bathymetry grids by accumulating the resulting terms. We then use these grids to simulate the tsunami behavior from pure thrust events around the Pacific through the MOST algorithm (e.g. Titov & Synolakis, 1995; Titov & Synolakis, 1998). Our preliminary results reveal that one would only need to consider the sum of the first 40 coefficients (equivalent to a resolution of 1000 km) to reproduce the main components of the "real" results. This would result in simpler simulations, and potentially allowing for more efficient tsunami warning algorithms.

Dynamic Tsunami Data Assimilation (DTDA) Based on Green's Function: Theory and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Satake, K.; Gusman, A. R.; Maeda, T.

2017-12-01

Tsunami data assimilation estimates the tsunami arrival time and height at Points of Interest (PoIs) by assimilating tsunami data observed offshore into a numerical simulation, without the need of calculating initial sea surface height at the source (Maeda et al., 2015). The previous tsunami data assimilation has two main problems: one is that it requires quite large calculating time because the tsunami wavefield of the whole interested region is computed continuously; another is that it relies on dense observation network such as Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) in Japan or Cascadia Initiative (CI) in North America (Gusman et al., 2016), which is not practical for some area. Here we propose a new approach based on Green's function to speed up the tsunami data assimilation process and to solve the problem of sparse observation: Dynamic Tsunami Data Assimilation (DTDA). If the residual between the observed and calculated tsunami height is not zero, there will be an assimilation response around the station, usually a Gaussian-distributed sea surface displacement. The Green's function Gi,j is defined as the tsunami waveform at j-th grid caused by the propagation of assimilation response at i-th station. Hence, the forecasted waveforms at PoIs are calculated as the superposition of the Green's functions. In case of sparse observation, we could use the aircraft and satellite observations. The previous assimilation approach is not practical because it costs much time to assimilate moving observation, and to compute the tsunami wavefield of the interested region. In contrast, DTDA synthesizes the waveforms quickly as long as the Green's functions are calculated in advance. We apply our method to a hypothetic earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra Island similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake. Currently there is no dense observation network in that area, making it difficult for the previous assimilation approach. We used DTDA with aircraft and satellite observation above the Indian Ocean, to forecast the tsunami in Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. It shows that DTDA provides reliable tsunami forecasting for these countries, and the tsunami early warning can be issued half an hour before the tsunami arrives to reduce the damage along the coast.

Tsunami-induced boulder transport - combining physical experiments and numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oetjen, Jan; Engel, Max; May, Simon Matthias; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Brueckner, Helmut; Prasad Pudasaini, Shiva

2016-04-01

Coasts are crucial areas for living, economy, recreation, transportation, and various sectors of industry. Many of them are exposed to high-energy wave events. With regard to the ongoing population growth in low-elevation coastal areas, the urgent need for developing suitable management measures, especially for hazards like tsunamis, becomes obvious. These measures require supporting tools which allow an exact estimation of impact parameters like inundation height, inundation area, and wave energy. Focussing on tsunamis, geological archives can provide essential information on frequency and magnitude on a longer time scale in order to support coastal hazard management. While fine-grained deposits may quickly be altered after deposition, multi-ton coarse clasts (boulders) may represent an information source on past tsunami events with a much higher preservation potential. Applying numerical hydrodynamic coupled boulder transport models (BTM) is a commonly used approach to analyse characteristics (e.g. wave height, flow velocity) of the corresponding tsunami. Correct computations of tsunamis and the induced boulder transport can provide essential event-specific information, including wave heights, runup and direction. Although several valuable numerical models for tsunami-induced boulder transport exist (e. g. Goto et al., 2007; Imamura et al., 2008), some important basic aspects of both tsunami hydrodynamics and corresponding boulder transport have not yet been entirely understood. Therefore, our project aims at these questions in four crucial aspects of boulder transport by a tsunami: (i) influence of sediment load, (ii) influence of complex boulder shapes other than idealized rectangular shapes, (iii) momentum transfers between multiple boulders, and (iv) influence of non-uniform bathymetries and topographies both on tsunami and boulder. The investigation of these aspects in physical experiments and the correct implementation of an advanced model is an urgent need since they have been largely neglected. In order to tackle these gaps, we develop a novel BTM in two steps. First, scaled physical experiments are performed that determine the exact hydrodynamic processes within a tsunami during boulder transportations. Furthermore, the experiments are the basis for calibrating the numerical BTM. The BTM is based on the numerical two-phase mass flow model of Pudasaini (2012) that employs an advanced and unified high-resolution computational tool for mixtures consisting of the solid and fluid components and their interactions. This allows for the motion of the boulder while interacting with the particle-laden tsunami on the inundated coastal plane as a function of the total fluid and solid stresses. Our approach leads to fundamentally new insights in to the essential physical processes in BTM. Goto, K., Chavanich, S. A., Imamura, F., Kunthasap, P., Matsui, T., Minoura, K., Sugawara, D. and Yanagisawa, H.: Distribution, origin and transport process of boulders deposited by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape, Thailand. Sediment. Geol., 202, 821-837, 2007. Imamura, F., Goto, K. and Ohkubo, S.: A numerical model of the transport of a boulder by tsunami. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 113, C01008, 2008. Pudasaini, S. P.: A general two-phase debris flow model. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 117, F03010, 2012.

Validation and Comparison of 2D and 3D Codes for Nearshore Motion of Long Waves Using Benchmark Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velioǧlu, Deniz; Cevdet Yalçıner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

2016-04-01

Tsunamis are huge waves with long wave periods and wave lengths that can cause great devastation and loss of life when they strike a coast. The interest in experimental and numerical modeling of tsunami propagation and inundation increased considerably after the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. In this study, two numerical codes, FLOW 3D and NAMI DANCE, that analyze tsunami propagation and inundation patterns are considered. Flow 3D simulates linear and nonlinear propagating surface waves as well as long waves by solving three-dimensional Navier-Stokes (3D-NS) equations. NAMI DANCE uses finite difference computational method to solve 2D depth-averaged linear and nonlinear forms of shallow water equations (NSWE) in long wave problems, specifically tsunamis. In order to validate these two codes and analyze the differences between 3D-NS and 2D depth-averaged NSWE equations, two benchmark problems are applied. One benchmark problem investigates the runup of long waves over a complex 3D beach. The experimental setup is a 1:400 scale model of Monai Valley located on the west coast of Okushiri Island, Japan. Other benchmark problem is discussed in 2015 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Annual meeting in Portland, USA. It is a field dataset, recording the Japan 2011 tsunami in Hilo Harbor, Hawaii. The computed water surface elevation and velocity data are compared with the measured data. The comparisons showed that both codes are in fairly good agreement with each other and benchmark data. The differences between 3D-NS and 2D depth-averaged NSWE equations are highlighted. All results are presented with discussions and comparisons. Acknowledgements: Partial support by Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAP-C-12-14 project of AFAD Turkey, 108Y227, 113M556 and 213M534 projects of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are all acknowledged.

Investigation on potential landslide sources along the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment for the 1693 tsunami in Eastern Sicily (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaniboni, Filippo; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano

2015-04-01

The study of the source of 1693 tsunami in eastern Sicily (South Italy) is still debated in the scientific community. Macroseismic analyses provide inland location for the epicenter of the earthquake, while historical reports describing 1-2 m waves hitting the coast suggest the existence of at least an offshore extension of the fault. Furthermore, an anomalous water elevation was described in Augusta (between Siracusa and Catania), that was interpreted as the manifestation of a local submarine landslide. The presence of the steep Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, that runs parallel to the eastern coast of Sicily at a short distance from the shoreline and is cut by several canyons and scars, corroborates the hypothesis of a landslide occurrence, though no clear evidence has been found yet. This research, realized in the frame of the project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839), aims at assessing the effect of landslide-generated tsunamis on the coastal stretch around Augusta considering different scenarios of collapsing masses along the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment. The slide dynamics is computed by means of the numerical code UBO-BLOCK1 (developed by the University of Bologna Tsunami Research Team), and the corresponding tsunami is simulated via the code UBO-TSUFD. The sliding bodies are placed in different positions in order to assess which of them could produce significant effects on the town of Augusta, providing then clues on the possible source area for the hypothesized slide related to the 1693 tsunami. The sensitivity analysis shows the spatial dependence of the coastal tsunami height on the source volume, position, distance from the coast, and on other parameters.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pudasaini, Shiva P.; Miller, Stephen A.

The general two-phase debris flow model proposed by Pudasaini is employed to study subaerial and submarine debris flows, and the tsunami generated by the debris impact at lakes and oceans. The model, which includes three fundamentally new and dominant physical aspects such as enhanced viscous stress, virtual mass, and generalized drag (in addition to buoyancy), constitutes the most generalized two-phase flow model to date. The advantage of this two-phase debris flow model over classical single-phase, or quasi-two-phase models, is that the initial mass can be divided into several parts by appropriately considering the solid volume fraction. These parts include amore » dry (landslide or rock slide), a fluid (water or muddy water; e.g., dams, rivers), and a general debris mixture material as needed in real flow simulations. This innovative formulation provides an opportunity, within a single framework, to simultaneously simulate the sliding debris (or landslide), the water lake or ocean, the debris impact at the lake or ocean, the tsunami generation and propagation, the mixing and separation between the solid and fluid phases, and the sediment transport and deposition process in the bathymetric surface. Applications of this model include (a) sediment transport on hill slopes, river streams, hydraulic channels (e.g., hydropower dams and plants); lakes, fjords, coastal lines, and aquatic ecology; and (b) submarine debris impact and the rupture of fiber optic, submarine cables and pipelines along the ocean floor, and damage to offshore drilling platforms. Numerical simulations reveal that the dynamics of debris impact induced tsunamis in mountain lakes or oceans are fundamentally different than the tsunami generated by pure rock avalanches and landslides. The analysis includes the generation, amplification and propagation of super tsunami waves and run-ups along coastlines, debris slide and deposition at the bottom floor, and debris shock waves. It is observed that the submarine debris speed can be faster than the tsunami speed. This information can be useful for early warning strategies in the coastal regions. These findings substantially increase our understanding of complex multi-phase systems and multi-physics and flows, and allows for the proper modeling of landslide and debris induced tsunami, the dynamics of turbidity currents and sediment transport, and the associated applications to hazard mitigation, geomorphology and sedimentology.« less

Tsunami Simulators in Physical Modelling - Concept to Practical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandler, Ian; Allsop, William; Robinson, David; Rossetto, Tiziana; McGovern, David; Todd, David

2017-04-01

Whilst many researchers have conducted simple 'tsunami impact' studies, few engineering tools are available to assess the onshore impacts of tsunami, with no agreed methods available to predict loadings on coastal defences, buildings or related infrastructure. Most previous impact studies have relied upon unrealistic waveforms (solitary or dam-break waves and bores) rather than full-duration tsunami waves, or have used simplified models of nearshore and over-land flows. Over the last 10+ years, pneumatic Tsunami Simulators for the hydraulic laboratory have been developed into an exciting and versatile technology, allowing the forces of real-world tsunami to be reproduced and measured in a laboratory environment for the first time. These devices have been used to model generic elevated and N-wave tsunamis up to and over simple shorelines, and at example coastal defences and infrastructure. They have also reproduced full-duration tsunamis including Mercator 2004 and Tohoku 2011, both at 1:50 scale. Engineering scale models of these tsunamis have measured wave run-up on simple slopes, forces on idealised sea defences, pressures / forces on buildings, and scour at idealised buildings. This presentation will describe how these Tsunami Simulators work, demonstrate how they have generated tsunami waves longer than the facilities within which they operate, and will present research results from three generations of Tsunami Simulators. Highlights of direct importance to natural hazard modellers and coastal engineers include measurements of wave run-up levels, forces on single and multiple buildings and comparison with previous theoretical predictions. Multiple buildings have two malign effects. The density of buildings to flow area (blockage ratio) increases water depths and flow velocities in the 'streets'. But the increased building densities themselves also increase the cost of flow per unit area (both personal and monetary). The most recent study with the Tsunami Simulators therefore focussed on the influence of multiple buildings (up to 4 rows) which showed (for instance) that the greatest forces can act on the landward (not seaward) rows of buildings. Studies in the 70m long, 4m wide main channel of the Fast Flow Facility on tsunami defence structures have also measured forces on buildings in the lee of a failed defence wall and tsunami induced scour. Supporting presentations at this conference: McGovern et al on tsunami induced scour at coastal structures and Foster et al on building loads.

Should tsunami simulations include a nonzero initial horizontal velocity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotto, Gabriel C.; Nava, Gabriel; Dunham, Eric M.

2017-08-01

Tsunami propagation in the open ocean is most commonly modeled by solving the shallow water wave equations. These equations require initial conditions on sea surface height and depth-averaged horizontal particle velocity or, equivalently, horizontal momentum. While most modelers assume that initial velocity is zero, Y.T. Song and collaborators have argued for nonzero initial velocity, claiming that horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor imparts significant horizontal momentum to the ocean. They show examples in which this effect increases the resulting tsunami height by a factor of two or more relative to models in which initial velocity is zero. We test this claim with a "full-physics" integrated dynamic rupture and tsunami model that couples the elastic response of the Earth to the linearized acoustic-gravitational response of a compressible ocean with gravity; the model self-consistently accounts for seismic waves in the solid Earth, acoustic waves in the ocean, and tsunamis (with dispersion at short wavelengths). Full-physics simulations of subduction zone megathrust ruptures and tsunamis in geometries with a sloping seafloor confirm that substantial horizontal momentum is imparted to the ocean. However, almost all of that initial momentum is carried away by ocean acoustic waves, with negligible momentum imparted to the tsunami. We also compare tsunami propagation in each simulation to that predicted by an equivalent shallow water wave simulation with varying assumptions regarding initial velocity. We find that the initial horizontal velocity conditions proposed by Song and collaborators consistently overestimate the tsunami amplitude and predict an inconsistent wave profile. Finally, we determine tsunami initial conditions that are rigorously consistent with our full-physics simulations by isolating the tsunami waves from ocean acoustic and seismic waves at some final time, and backpropagating the tsunami waves to their initial state by solving the adjoint problem. The resulting initial conditions have negligible horizontal velocity.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Son, S.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

The California Tsunami Program coordinated by CalOES and CGS in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. The goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and (4) determine ';safe depths' for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during a tsunami event. This presentation will focus on the results from five California ports and harbors, and will include feedback we have received from initial discussion with local harbor masters and port authorities. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Nearshore Tsunami Inundation Model Validation: Toward Sediment Transport Applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apotsos, Alex; Buckley, Mark; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Jaffe, Bruce; Vatvani, Deepak

2011-01-01

Model predictions from a numerical model, Delft3D, based on the nonlinear shallow water equations are compared with analytical results and laboratory observations from seven tsunami-like benchmark experiments, and with field observations from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The model accurately predicts the magnitude and timing of the measured water levels and flow velocities, as well as the magnitude of the maximum inundation distance and run-up, for both breaking and non-breaking waves. The shock-capturing numerical scheme employed describes well the total decrease in wave height due to breaking, but does not reproduce the observed shoaling near the break point. The maximum water levels observed onshore near Kuala Meurisi, Sumatra, following the 26 December 2004 tsunami are well predicted given the uncertainty in the model setup. The good agreement between the model predictions and the analytical results and observations demonstrates that the numerical solution and wetting and drying methods employed are appropriate for modeling tsunami inundation for breaking and non-breaking long waves. Extension of the model to include sediment transport may be appropriate for long, non-breaking tsunami waves. Using available sediment transport formulations, the sediment deposit thickness at Kuala Meurisi is predicted generally within a factor of 2.

A Coupled Earthquake-Tsunami Simulation Framework Applied to the Sumatra 2004 Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vater, Stefan; Bader, Michael; Behrens, Jörn; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Uphoff, Carsten; Wollherr, Stephanie; van Zelst, Iris

2017-04-01

Large earthquakes along subduction zone interfaces have generated destructive tsunamis near Chile in 1960, Sumatra in 2004, and northeast Japan in 2011. In order to better understand these extreme events, we have developed tools for physics-based, coupled earthquake-tsunami simulations. This simulation framework is applied to the 2004 Indian Ocean M 9.1-9.3 earthquake and tsunami, a devastating event that resulted in the loss of more than 230,000 lives. The earthquake rupture simulation is performed using an ADER discontinuous Galerkin discretization on an unstructured tetrahedral mesh with the software SeisSol. Advantages of this approach include accurate representation of complex fault and sea floor geometries and a parallelized and efficient workflow in high-performance computing environments. Accurate and efficient representation of the tsunami evolution and inundation at the coast is achieved with an adaptive mesh discretizing the shallow water equations with a second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme. With the application of the framework to this historic event, we aim to better understand the involved mechanisms between the dynamic earthquake within the earth's crust, the resulting tsunami wave within the ocean, and the final coastal inundation process. Earthquake model results are constrained by GPS surface displacements and tsunami model results are compared with buoy and inundation data. This research is part of the ASCETE Project, "Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events", funded by the Volkswagen Foundation.

Analysis of Tsunami Evacuation Issues Using Agent Based Modeling. A Case Study of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Yuriage, Natori.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mas, E.; Takagi, H.; Adriano, B.; Hayashi, S.; Koshimura, S.

2014-12-01

The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami reminded that nature can exceed structural countermeasures like seawalls, breakwaters or tsunami gates. In such situations it is a challenging task for people to find nearby haven. This event, as many others before, confirmed the importance of early evacuation, tsunami awareness and the need for developing much more resilient communities with effective evacuation plans. To support reconstruction activities and efforts on developing resilient communities in areas at risk, tsunami evacuation simulation can be applied to tsunami mitigation and evacuation planning. In this study, using the compiled information related to the evacuation behavior at Yuriage in Natori during the 2011 tsunami, we simulated the evacuation process and explored the reasons for the large number of fatalities in the area. It was found that residents did evacuate to nearby shelter areas, however after the tsunami warning was increased some evacuees decided to conduct a second step evacuation to a far inland shelter. Simulation results show the consequences of such decision and the outcomes when a second evacuation would not have been performed. The actual reported number of fatalities in the event and the results from simulation are compared to verify the model. The case study shows the contribution of tsunami evacuation models as tools to be applied for the analysis of evacuees' decisions and the related outcomes. In addition, future evacuation plans and activities for reconstruction process and urban planning can be supported by the results provided from this kind of tsunami evacuation models.

Numerical simulation of the submarine landslides and tsunami occurred at Port Valdez, AK during 1964 Alaska Earthquake with Landslide-HySEA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Vida, Jose M.; Ortega, Sergio; Macías, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; Escalante, Cipriano

2017-04-01

This is a benchmark problem recently proposed in the framework of the Landslide Tsunami Model Benchmarking Workshop organized by the NTHMP (National tsunami Hazard mitigation program -USA-) at Galveston (USA). The benchmark is based on the historical event which occurred at Port Valdez, AK during the Alaska Earthquake of March 27, 1964. The great disaster during the Mw9.2 Alaska Earthquake happened in the dock and harbour area of Port Valdez, where a massive submarine landslide generated a tsunami, inundating the waterfront up to two blocks inland. Then, a second wave crossed the waterfront 10-15 minutes after the first wave, carrying a large amount of the debris. It has been described as a violent surging wave only slightly smaller than the first. It is believed that the second wave which flooded the waterfront was originated at the other side of the Port Valdez near the Shoup Bay moraine. The benchmark consists in simulating with the (GPU based) Landslide-HySEA model the extent of inundation for two slide events, based on before and after bathymetry data, eye-witness observations of the event, and observed runup distribution. First, both landslides have been simulated separately, studying time series of the water waves at determined locations, runups at different areas and the extent of inundation around the first two blocks inland of Port Valdez. Then, the two landslides are triggered at the same time and the joint effect is studied. Obtained results are satisfactory and they agree with the existing observations. References Castro, M. J., Fernández-Nieto, E. D., González-Vida, J. M., Parés, C. (2011). Numerical Treatment of the Loss of Hyperbolicity of the Two-Layer Shallow-Water System. Journal of Scientific Computing, 48(1):16-40. Fernández, E.H., Bouchut, F., Bresh, D., Castro, M.J. and, Mangeney, A. (2008). A new Savage-Hutter type model for submarine avalanches and generated tsunami. J. Comp. Phys., 227: 7720-7754. Fernández-Nieto, E.D., Castro, M.J., Parés, C. (2011). On an Intermediate Field Capturing Riemann Solver Based on a Parabolic Viscosity Matrix for the Two-Layer Shallow Water System. J. Sci. Comp. 48:117-140. Macías, J., Vázquez, J.T., Fernández-Salas, L.M., González-Vida, J.M., Bárcenas, P., Castro, M.J., Díaz-del-Río, and V., Alonso, B. (2015). The Al-Boraní submarine landslide and associated tsunami. A modelling approach. Marine Geology, 361:79-95.

Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.; Geist, E.L.

2008-01-01

We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0 - 30% regionally. ?? irkhaueser 2008.

Calculations of turbidite deposits and tsunamis from submarine landslides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gisler, Galen R; Weaver, Robert P; Gittings, Michael L

2009-01-01

Great underwater landslides like Storegga off the Norwegian coast leave massive deposits on the seafloor and must produce enormous tsunamis. Such events have occurred on continental slopes worldwide, and continue to do so. Triggers for such slides include earthquakes, gas hydrate releases, and underwater volcanos. We have petformed a numerical study of such landslides using the multi-material compressible hydrocode Sage in order to understand the relationship between the rheology of the slide material, the configuration of the resulting deposits on the seafloor, and the tsunami that is produced. Instabilities in the fluid-fluid mixing between slide material and seawater produce vorticesmore » and swirls with sizes that depend on the rheology of the slide material. These dynamical features of the flow may be preserved as ridges when the sliding material finally stops. Thus studying the configuration of the ridges in prehistoric slides may give us measures of the circumstances under which the slide was initiated. As part of this study, we have also done a convergence test showing that the slide velocity is sensitive to the resolution adopted in the simulation, but that extrapolation to infinite resolution is possible, and can yield good velocities. We will present two-dimensional simulations of schematic underwater slides for our study of rheology, and a three-dimensional simulation in bathymetric conditions that resemble the pre-Storegga Norwegian margin.« less

Seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard: from regional to local analysis and use of geological and historical observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, R.; Lorito, S.; Orefice, S.; Graziani, L.; Brizuela, B.; Smedile, A.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; De Martini, P. M.; Maramai, A.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Pantosti, D.

2016-12-01

Site-specific probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses demand very high computational efforts that are often reduced by introducing approximations on tsunami sources and/or tsunami modeling. On one hand, the large variability of source parameters implies the definition of a huge number of potential tsunami scenarios, whose omission could easily lead to important bias in the analysis. On the other hand, detailed inundation maps computed by tsunami numerical simulations require very long running time. When tsunami effects are calculated at regional scale, a common practice is to propagate tsunami waves in deep waters (up to 50-100 m depth) neglecting non-linear effects and using coarse bathymetric meshes. Then, maximum wave heights on the coast are empirically extrapolated, saving a significant amount of computational time. However, moving to local scale, such assumptions drop out and tsunami modeling would require much greater computational resources. In this work, we perform a local Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) for the 50 km long coastal segment between Augusta and Siracusa, a touristic and commercial area placed along the South-Eastern Sicily coast, Italy. The procedure consists in using the outcomes of a regional SPTHA as input for a two-step filtering method to select and substantially reduce the number of scenarios contributing to the specific target area. These selected scenarios are modeled using high resolution topo-bathymetry for producing detailed inundation maps. Results are presented as probabilistic hazard curves and maps, with the goal of analyze, compare and highlight the different results provided by regional and local hazard assessments. Moreover, the analysis is enriched by the use of local observed tsunami data, both geological and historical. Indeed, tsunami data-sets available for the selected target areas are particularly rich with respect to the scarce and heterogeneous data-sets usually available elsewhere. Therefore, they can represent valuable benchmarks for testing and strengthening the results of such kind of studies. The work is funded by the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE, the two EC FP7 projects ASTARTE (Grant agreement 603839) and STREST (Grant agreement 603389), and the INGV-DPC Agreement.

Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

2008-06-01

The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks GIS coupled with modelling thus appears to be a very useful tool that can constitute the skeleton of a coastal zone management system. Decision makers will be able to make informed choices with regards to hazards during reconstruction and urban planning projects.

The Samoa tsunami of 29 September 2009: Field survey in Samoa and preliminary modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, J. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Synolakis, C. E.; Weiss, R.; Okal, E. A.

2010-05-01

The Samoa tsunami of 29 September 2009 caused considerable damage and 146 deaths in the country of [ex-Western] Samoa, where the last comparable event took place in 1917. Following the event, an International Tsunami Survey Team was deployed and surveyed the inundation one week after the tsunami. Our results revealed higher values of run-up and inundation on the Southern shore of Upolu, where run-up reached 14.5 m at Lepa and 11.4 m at Lalomanu, this latter village being eradicated, with a death toll of 61. By contrast, the Northern shore was largely spared. A similar pattern was observed on the island of Savaii, but with lower run-up values, and only 2 deaths. The higher death toll in Samoa, as compared to American Samoa probably results from the combination of terrain morphology (wider coastal plains leading to longer evacuation distances), the absence of a signage project, and an unfortunate reliance on motor vehicles leading to entrapment of victims along roads often parallel to the beach. A number of numerical simulations were conducted using several models of the seismic source; they correctly predict a concentration of tsunami energy at the Southeastern corner of the island of Upolu, but also at its Southwestern end, where surveyed run-up did not exceed 5 m. All models correctly indicate that the northern coast, with the capital Apia, is spared by the tsunami, even though it had reportedly been emphasized during mitigation exercises prior to the event.

Modeling the 16 September 2015 Chile tsunami source with the inversion of deep-ocean tsunami records by means of the r - solution method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voronina, Tatyana; Romanenko, Alexey; Loskutov, Artem

2017-04-01

The key point in the state-of-the-art in the tsunami forecasting is constructing a reliable tsunami source. In this study, we present an application of the original numerical inversion technique to modeling the tsunami sources of the 16 September 2015 Chile tsunami. The problem of recovering a tsunami source from remote measurements of the incoming wave in the deep-water tsunameters is considered as an inverse problem of mathematical physics in the class of ill-posed problems. This approach is based on the least squares and the truncated singular value decomposition techniques. The tsunami wave propagation is considered within the scope of the linear shallow-water theory. As in inverse seismic problem, the numerical solutions obtained by mathematical methods become unstable due to the presence of noise in real data. A method of r-solutions makes it possible to avoid instability in the solution to the ill-posed problem under study. This method seems to be attractive from the computational point of view since the main efforts are required only once for calculating the matrix whose columns consist of computed waveforms for each harmonic as a source (an unknown tsunami source is represented as a part of a spatial harmonics series in the source area). Furthermore, analyzing the singular spectra of the matrix obtained in the course of numerical calculations one can estimate the future inversion by a certain observational system that will allow offering a more effective disposition for the tsunameters with the help of precomputations. In other words, the results obtained allow finding a way to improve the inversion by selecting the most informative set of available recording stations. The case study of the 6 February 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami highlights a critical role of arranging deep-water tsunameters for obtaining the inversion results. Implementation of the proposed methodology to the 16 September 2015 Chile tsunami has successfully produced tsunami source model. The function recovered by the method proposed can find practical applications both as an initial condition for various optimization approaches and for computer calculation of the tsunami wave propagation.

Toward the Real-Time Tsunami Parameters Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavrentyev, Mikhail; Romanenko, Alexey; Marchuk, Andrey

2013-04-01

Today, a wide well-developed system of deep ocean tsunami detectors operates over the Pacific. Direct measurements of tsunami-wave time series are available. However, tsunami-warning systems fail to predict basic parameters of tsunami waves on time. Dozens examples could be provided. In our view, the lack of computational power is the main reason of these failures. At the same time, modern computer technologies such as, GPU (graphic processing unit) and FPGA (field programmable gates array), can dramatically improve data processing performance, which may enhance timely tsunami-warning prediction. Thus, it is possible to address the challenge of real-time tsunami forecasting for selected geo regions. We propose to use three new techniques in the existing tsunami warning systems to achieve real-time calculation of tsunami wave parameters. First of all, measurement system (DART buoys location, e.g.) should be optimized (both in terms of wave arriving time and amplitude parameter). The corresponding software application exists today and is ready for use [1]. We consider the example of the coastal line of Japan. Numerical tests show that optimal installation of only 4 DART buoys (accounting the existing sea bed cable) will reduce the tsunami wave detection time to only 10 min after an underwater earthquake. Secondly, as was shown by this paper authors, the use of GPU/FPGA technologies accelerates the execution of the MOST (method of splitting tsunami) code by 100 times [2]. Therefore, tsunami wave propagation over the ocean area 2000*2000 km (wave propagation simulation: time step 10 sec, recording each 4th spatial point and 4th time step) could be calculated at: 3 sec with 4' mesh 50 sec with 1' mesh 5 min with 0.5' mesh The algorithm to switch from coarse mesh to the fine grain one is also available. Finally, we propose the new algorithm for tsunami source parameters determination by real-time processing the time series, obtained at DART. It is possible to approximate the measured time series by a linear combination of synthetic marigrams. Coefficients of such linear combination are calculated with the help of orthogonal decomposition. The algorithm is very fast and demonstrates good accuracy. Summing up, using the example of the coastal line of Japan, wave height evaluation will be available in 12-14 minutes after the earthquake even before the wave approaches the nearest shore point (usually, it takes places in about 20 minutes). The determination of the optimal sensors' location using genetic algorithm / A.S.Astrakova, D.V.Bannikov, S.G.Cherny, M.M.Lavrentiev // 3rd Nordic EMW Summer School, Turku, Finland, June, 2009: proceedings - Finland: TUSC General Publications, 2009. - N 53. - P.5-22. M.Lavrentiev Jr., A.Romanenko, "Modern Hardware Solutions to Speed Up Tsunami Simulation Codes", Geophysical research abstracts, Vol. 12, EGU2010-3835, 2010

Simulation of Tsunami Resistance of a Pinus Thunbergii tree in Coastal Forest in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanko, K.; Suzuki, S.; Noguchi, H.; Hagino, H.

2015-12-01

Forests reduce fluid force of tsunami, whereas extreme tsunami sometimes breaks down the forest trees. It is difficult to estimate the interactive relationship between the fluid and the trees because fluid deform tree architecture and deformed tree changes flow field. Dynamic tree deformation and fluid behavior should be clarified by fluid-structure interaction analysis. For the initial step, we have developed dynamic simulation of tree sway and breakage caused by tsunami based on a vibrating system with multiple degrees of freedom. The target specie of the simulation was Japanese black pine (pinus thunbergii), which is major specie in the coastal forest to secure livelihood area from the damage by blown sand and salt in Japanese coastal area. For the simulation, a tree was segmented into 0.2 m long circular truncated cones. Turning moment induced by tsunami and self-weight was calculated at each segment bottom. Tree deformation was computed on multi-degree-of-freedom vibration equation. Tree sway was simulated by iterative calculation of the tree deformation with time step 0.05 second with temporally varied flow velocity of tsunami. From the calculation of bending stress and turning moment at tree base, we estimated resistance of a Pinus thunbergii tree from tsunami against tree breakage.

Project TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and the English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modeling) (2014-2018): a French initiative to draw lessons from the Tohoku-oki tsunami on French coastal nuclear facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Hélène; Abadie, Stéphane; Benoit, Michel; Créach, Ronan; Frère, Antoine; Gailler, Audrey; Garzaglia, Sébastien; Hayashi, Yutaka; Loevenbruck, Anne; Macary, Olivier; Marcer, Richard; Morichon, Denis; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Rebour, Vincent; Ricchiuto, Mario; Silva Jacinto, Ricardo; Terrier, Monique; Toucanne, Samuel; Traversa, Paola; Violeau, Damien

2014-05-01

TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and the English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modeling) is a French research project dedicated to the appraisal of coastal effects due to tsunami waves on the French coastlines, with a special focus on the Atlantic and Channel coastlines, where French civil nuclear facilities have been operating since about 30 years. This project aims at drawing conclusions from the 2011 catastrophic tsunami, and will allow, together with a Japanese research partner, to design, adapt and validate numerical methods of tsunami hazard assessment, using the outstanding database of the 2011 tsunami. Then the validated methods will be applied to estimate, as accurately as possible, the tsunami hazard for the French Atlantic and Channel coastlines, in order to provide guidance for risk assessment on the nuclear facilities. The project TANDEM follows the recommendations of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to analyse the tsunami exposure of the nuclear facilities, as well as the recommendations of the French Nuclear Safety Authority (Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire, ASN) in the aftermath of the 2011 catastrophe, which required the licensee of nuclear facilities to conduct complementary safety assessments (CSA), also including "the robustness beyond their design basis". The tsunami hazard deserves an appraisal in the light of the 2011 catastrophe, to check whether any unforeseen tsunami impact can be expected for these facilities. TANDEM aims at defining the tsunami effects expected for the French Atlantic and Channel coastlines, basically from numerical modeling methods, through adaptation and improvement of numerical methods, in order to study tsunami impacts down to the interaction with coastal structures (thus sometimes using 3D approaches) (WP1). Then the methods will be tested to better characterize and quantify the associated uncertainties (in the source, the propagation, and the coastal impact) (WP2). The project will benefit from a Japanese cooperation (Meteorological Research Institute, MRI) to study in detail the coastal impact of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami (WP3). In this framework TANDEM will apply the models to the French study area, which includes investigating historical documents, defining the possible tsunamigenic sources able to strike the regions of interest (earthquakes and/or landslides), and modeling the coastal effects at a regional scale and for selected sites. Using high resolution bathymetric and topographic data in the frame of Litto3D (a French project whose main objective is to build a seamless integrated topographic and bathymetric coastal Digital Terrain Model), TANDEM will thoroughly investigate possible sources, through a detailed characterization of the slope stability off the coastlines (for the Celtic and Armorican margins, Bay of Biscay), and estimate the coastal impacts. It will also consider events (Canaries) whose assumed catastrophic impact has been widely discussed these recent years, needing a reappraisal regarding French coastlines. A special attention will also be paid to the estimation of the return periods expected for the tsunami scenarios.

Hydroelastic analysis of ice shelves under long wave excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathanasiou, T. K.; Karperaki, A. E.; Theotokoglou, E. E.; Belibassakis, K. A.

2015-05-01

The transient hydroelastic response of an ice shelf under long wave excitation is analysed by means of the finite element method. The simple model, presented in this work, is used for the simulation of the generated kinematic and stress fields in an ice shelf, when the latter interacts with a tsunami wave. The ice shelf, being of large length compared to its thickness, is modelled as an elastic Euler-Bernoulli beam, constrained at the grounding line. The hydrodynamic field is represented by the linearised shallow water equations. The numerical solution is based on the development of a special hydroelastic finite element for the system of governing of equations. Motivated by the 2011 Sulzberger Ice Shelf (SIS) calving event and its correlation with the Honshu Tsunami, the SIS stable configuration is studied. The extreme values of the bending moment distribution in both space and time are examined. Finally, the location of these extrema is investigated for different values of ice shelf thickness and tsunami wave length.

Hydroelastic analysis of ice shelves under long wave excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathanasiou, T. K.; Karperaki, A. E.; Theotokoglou, E. E.; Belibassakis, K. A.

2015-08-01

The transient hydroelastic response of an ice shelf under long wave excitation is analysed by means of the finite element method. The simple model, presented in this work, is used for the simulation of the generated kinematic and stress fields in an ice shelf, when the latter interacts with a tsunami wave. The ice shelf, being of large length compared to its thickness, is modelled as an elastic Euler-Bernoulli beam, constrained at the grounding line. The hydrodynamic field is represented by the linearised shallow water equations. The numerical solution is based on the development of a special hydroelastic finite element for the system of governing of equations. Motivated by the 2011 Sulzberger Ice Shelf (SIS) calving event and its correlation with the Honshu Tsunami, the SIS stable configuration is studied. The extreme values of the bending moment distribution in both space and time are examined. Finally, the location of these extrema is investigated for different values of ice shelf thickness and tsunami wave length.

The Chile tsunami of 27 February 2010: Field survey and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Petroff, C. M.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Winckler, P.; Kalligeris, N.; Weiss, R.; Meneses, G.; Valderas-Bermejo, C.; Barrientos, S. E.; Ebeling, C. W.; Papadopoulos, A.; Contreras, M.; Almar, R.; Dominguez, J.; Synolakis, C.

2011-12-01

On 27 February, 2010 a magnitude Mw 8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile's Maule region some 100 km N of Concepción, causing substantial damage and loss of life on Chile's mainland and the Juan Fernandez archipelago. The majority of the 521 fatalities are attributed to the earthquake, while the tsunami accounts for 124 victims. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from past tsunamis such as the giant 1960 event, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. The majority of the tsunami victims were tourists staying overnight in low lying camp grounds along the coast. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 3 to 25 March ITST covered an 800 km stretch of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín in various subgroups the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter), while Mocha Island was surveyed 21 to 23 May, 2010. The collected survey data includes more than 400 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked with a localized maximum runup of 29 m on a coastal bluff at Constitución and 23 m on marine terraces on Mocha Island. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along Chile's mainland both at local and regional scales. Inundation and damage also occurred several kilometres inland along rivers. Eyewitness tsunami videos are analysed and flooding velocities presented. Observations from the Chile tsunami are compared against the 1960 Chile, 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Japan tsunamis. The tsunamigenic seafloor displacements were partially characterized based on coastal uplift measurements along a 100 km stretch of coastline between Caleta Chome and Punta Morguilla. More than 2 m vertical uplift were measured on Santa Maria Island. Tsunami propagation in the Pacific Ocean is simulated using the benchmarked tsunami model MOST (Titov and Gonzalez, 1997; Titov and Synolakis, 1998). For initial conditions the inversion model of Lorito et al. (2011) is utilized. The model results highlight the directivity of the highest tsunami waves towards Juan Fernández and Easter Island during the transoceanic propagation. The team interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and educated residents about tsunami hazards since community-based education and awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from locally generated tsunamis.

Nationwide tsunami hazard assessment project in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

2014-12-01

In 2012, we began a project of nationwide Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) in Japan to support various measures (Fujiwara et al., 2013, JpGU; Hirata et al., 2014, AOGS). The most important strategy in the nationwide PTHA is predominance of aleatory uncertainty in the assessment but use of epistemic uncertainty is limited to the minimum, because the number of all possible combinations among epistemic uncertainties diverges quickly when the number of epistemic uncertainties in the assessment increases ; we consider only a type of earthquake occurrence probability distribution as epistemic uncertainty. We briefly show outlines of the nationwide PTHA as follows; (i) we consider all possible earthquakes in the future, including those that the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japanese Government, already assessed. (ii) We construct a set of simplified earthquake fault models, called "Characterized Earthquake Fault Models (CEFMs)", for all of the earthquakes by following prescribed rules (Toyama et al., 2014, JpGU; Korenaga et al., 2014, JpGU). (iii) For all of initial water surface distributions caused by a number of the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. (iv) Finally, we integrate information about the tsunamis calculated from the numerous CEFMs to get nationwide tsunami hazard assessments. One of the most popular representations of the integrated information is a tsunami hazard curve for coastal tsunami heights, incorporating uncertainties inherent in tsunami simulation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU). We will show a　PTHA along the eastern coast of Honshu, Japan, based on approximately 1,800 tsunami sources located within the subduction zone along the Japan Trench, as a prototype of the nationwide PTHA. This study is supported by part of the research project on research on evaluation of hazard and risk of natural disasters, under the direction of the HERP of Japanese Government.

Study of resonant modes of the harbour of Siracusa, Italy, and of the effects of breakwaters in case of a tsunami event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2016-04-01

The eastern coast of Sicily has been hit by many historical tsunamis of local and remote origin. This zone and in particular Siracusa, as test site, was selected in the FP7 European project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839). According to the project goals, in this work oscillations modes of the Siracusa harbour were analysed with focus on the typical tsunami periods range, and on the protecting effects of breakwaters by using linear and non-linear simulation models. The city of Siracusa is located north of the homonymous gulf and has two harbours, called "Piccolo" (small) and "Grande" (grand) that are connected through a narrow channel. The harbour "Piccolo" is the object of this work. It is located at the end of a bay facing east and bordered on the south by the peninsula of Ortigia and on the north by the mainland. The basin has an area of approximately 100,000 m2 and is very shallow with an average depth of 2.5 m. It is protected by two breakwaters reducing its mouth to only 40 m width. This study was carried out using the numerical code UBO-TSUFD that solves linear and non-linear shallow-water equations on a high-resolution 2m x 2m regular grid. Resonant modes were searched by sinusoidal forcing on the open boundary with periods in a range from about 60 s to 1600 s covering the typical tsunami spectrum. The work was divided into three phases. First we studied the natural resonance frequencies, and in particular the Helmholtz resonance mode by using a linear fixed-geometry model and assuming that the connecting channel between the two Siracusa ports is closed. Second, we repeated the analysis by using a non-linear simulation model accounting for flooding and for an open connection channel. Eventually, we forced the harbour by means of synthetic signals with amplitude, period and duration of the main historical tsunamis attacking Siracusa, namely the AD 365, the 1693 and the 1908 tsunami events. In this last case our attention was also focused on quantifying the role of the existing breakwaters in mitigating the incoming tsunami.

Preliminary report on crustal deformation surveys and tsunami measurements caused by the July 17, 2006 South off Java Island Earthquake and Tsunami, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, T.; Ito, T.; Abidin, H. Z.; Agustan

2007-09-01

A large earthquake (Mw=7.7) along a plate boundary occurred in the south of Java Island on July 17, 2006, and caused a significant tsunami. We made GPS observations and tsunami heights measurements during the period from July 24 to August 1, 2006. The earthquake seems to be due to an interplate low angle reverse faulting, though there might be a possibility of high angle faulting within the subducting lithosphere. Crustal deformation distribution due to the earthquake, aided by tsunami heights measurements, might clarify which would be the case. We occupied 29 sites by GPS in the area of southern Java encompassing the area from 107.8 E to 109.50 E. These sites were occupied once before the earthquake. However, we were not able to detect significant co-seismic displacements. The obtained displacements, most of which span several years, show ESE direction in ITRF2000 frame. This represents the direction of Sunda block motion. The tsunami heights measured at 11 sites were 6-7 m along the southern coast of Java and indicate that the observed heights are systematically higher than those estimated from numerical simulations that are based on seismic data analysis. This might suggest that fault offsets might have been larger - nearly double - than those estimated using seismic analysis. These results lead us to an idea that the rupture was very slow. If this is the case, the earthquake might have been a "tsunami earthquake" that is similar to the one that occurred on June 2, 1994 in the east of the present earthquake.

Projections of tsunami inundation area coupled with impacts of sea level rise in Banda Aceh, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tursina, Syamsidik, Kato, Shigeru

2017-10-01

In a long term, sea level rise is anticipated to give devastating effects on Banda Aceh, as one of the coastal cities in the northern tip of Sumatra. The growth of the population and buildings in the city has come to the stage where the coastal area is vulnerable to any coastal hazard. Some public facilities and settlements have been constructed and keep expanding in the future. According to TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite images, 7 mm/year the sea level has been risen between 1992 and 2015 in this area. It is estimated that in the next 100 years, there will be 700 mm additional sea level rise which will give a setback more over to a rather flat area around the coast. This research is aim at investigating the influence of sea level rise toward the tsunami inundation on the land area particularly the impacts on Banda Aceh city. Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) simulation numerically generated tsunami propagation. Topography and bathymetry data were collected from GEBCO and updated with the available nautical chart (DISHIDROS, JICA, and field measurements). Geological movement of the underwater fault was generated using Piatanesi and Lorito of 9.15 Mw 2004 multi-fault scenario. The inundation area produced by COMCOT revealed that the inundation area was expanded to several hundred meters from the shoreline. To investigate the impacts of tsunami wave on Banda Aceh, the inundation area were digitized and analyzed with Quantum GIS spatial tools. The Quantum GIS analyzed inundations area affected by the projected tsunami. It will give a new tsunami-prone coastal area map induced by sea level rise in 100 years.

Tsunami Early Warning in Europe: NEAMWave Exercise 2012 - the Portuguese Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lendholt, Matthias; Hammmitzsch, Martin; Schulz, Jana; Reißland, Sven

2013-04-01

On 27th and 28th November 2012 the first European-wide tsunami exercise took place under the auspices of UNESCO Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (ICG/NEAMTWS). Four international scenarios were performed - one for each candidate tsunami watch provider France, Greece, Portugal and Turkey. Their task was to generate and disseminate tsunami warning bulletins in-time and in compliance with the official NEAMTWS specifications. The Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA, [1]) in Lissabon and the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI [2]) in Istanbul are the national agencies of Portugal and Turkey responsible for tsunami early warning. Both institutes are partners in the TRIDEC [3] project and were using the TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management (NCM) system during NEAMWave exercise. The software demonstrated the seamless integration of diverse components including sensor systems, simulation data, and dissemination hardware. The functionalities that were showcased significantly exceeded the internationally agreed range of capabilities. Special attention was given to the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) serving as central application for the operator. Its origins lie in the DEWS project [4] but numerous new functionalities were added to master all requirements defined by the complex NEAMTWS workflows. It was of utmost importance to develop an application handling the complexity of tsunami science but providing a clearly arranged and comprehensible interface that disburdens the operator during time-critical hazard situations. [1] IPMA: www.ipma.pt/ [2] KOERI: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/ [3] TRIDEC: www.tridec-online.eu [4] DEWS: www.dews-online.org

Contribution of ionospheric monitoring to tsunami warning: results from a benchmark exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, L.; Makela, J. J.; Drob, D. P.; Occhipinti, G.; Lognonne, P. H.; Kherani, E. A.; Sladen, A.; Rakoto, V.; Grawe, M.; Meng, X.; Komjathy, A.; Liu, T. J. Y.; Astafyeva, E.; Coisson, P.; Budzien, S. A.

2016-12-01

Deep ocean pressure sensors have proven very effective to quantify tsunami waves in real-time. Yet, the cost of these sensors and maintenance strongly limit the extensive deployment of dense networks. Thus a complete observation of the tsunami wave-field is not possible so far. In the last decade, imprints of moderate to large transpacific tsunami wave-fields have been registered in the ionosphere through the atmospheric internal gravity wave coupled with the tsunami during its propagation. Those ionospheric observations could provide a an additional description of the phenomenon with a high spatial coverage. Ionospheric observations have been supported by numerical modeling of the ocean-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, developed by different groups. We present here the first results of a cross-validation exercise aimed at testing various forward simulation techniques. In particular, we compare different approaches for modeling tsunami-induced gravity waves including a pseudo-spectral method, finite difference schemes, a fully coupled normal modes modeling approach, a Fourier-Laplace compressible ray-tracing solution, and a self-consistent, three-dimensional physics-based wave perturbation (WP) model based on the augmented Global Thermosphere-Ionosphere Model (WP-GITM). These models and other existing models use either a realistic sea-surface motion input model or a simple analytic model. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the different methods and setup common inputs to the models so that meaningful comparisons of model outputs can be made to higlight physical conclusions and understanding. Nominally, we highlight how the different models reproduce or disagree for two study cases: the ionospheric observations related to the 2012 Mw7.7 Haida Gwaii, Canada, and 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, Chile, events. Ultimately, we explore the possibility of computing a transfer function in order to convert ionospheric perturbations directly into tsunami height estimates.

Field Investigations and a Tsunami Modeling for the 1766 Marmara Sea Earthquake, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aykurt Vardar, H.; Altinok, Y.; Alpar, B.; Unlu, S.; Yalciner, A. C.

2016-12-01

Turkey is located on one of the world's most hazardous earthquake zones. The northern branch of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, where the population is most concentrated, is the most active fault branch at least since late Pliocene. The Sea of Marmara region has been affected by many large tsunamigenic earthquakes; the most destructive ones are 549, 553, 557, 740, 989, 1332, 1343, 1509, 1766, 1894, 1912 and 1999 events. In order to understand and determine the tsunami potential and their possible effects along the coasts of this inland sea, detailed documentary, geophysical and numerical modelling studies are needed on the past earthquakes and their associated tsunamis whose effects are presently unknown.On the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara region, the Kucukcekmece Lagoon has a high potential to trap and preserve tsunami deposits. Within the scope of this study, lithological content, composition and sources of organic matters in the lagoon's bottom sediments were studied along a 4.63 m-long piston core recovered from the SE margin of the lagoon. The sedimentary composition and possible sources of the organic matters along the core were analysed and their results were correlated with the historical events on the basis of dating results. Finally, a tsunami scenario was tested for May 22nd 1766 Marmara Sea Earthquake by using a widely used tsunami simulation model called NAMIDANCE. The results show that the candidate tsunami deposits at the depths of 180-200 cm below the lagoons bottom were related with the 1766 (May) earthquake. This work was supported by the Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Istanbul University (Project 6384) and by the EU project TRANSFER for coring.

Tsunami Simulators in Physical Modelling Laboratories - From Concept to Proven Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allsop, W.; Chandler, I.; Rossetto, T.; McGovern, D.; Petrone, C.; Robinson, D.

2016-12-01

Before 2004, there was little public awareness around Indian Ocean coasts of the potential size and effects of tsunami. Even in 2011, the scale and extent of devastation by the Japan East Coast Tsunami was unexpected. There were very few engineering tools to assess onshore impacts of tsunami, so no agreement on robust methods to predict forces on coastal defences, buildings or related infrastructure. Modelling generally used substantial simplifications of either solitary waves (far too short durations) or dam break (unrealistic and/or uncontrolled wave forms).This presentation will describe research from EPI-centre, HYDRALAB IV, URBANWAVES and CRUST projects over the last 10 years that have developed and refined pneumatic Tsunami Simulators for the hydraulic laboratory. These unique devices have been used to model generic elevated and N-wave tsunamis up to and over simple shorelines, and at example defences. They have reproduced full-duration tsunamis including the Mercator trace from 2004 at 1:50 scale. Engineering scale models subjected to those tsunamis have measured wave run-up on simple slopes, forces on idealised sea defences and pressures / forces on buildings. This presentation will describe how these pneumatic Tsunami Simulators work, demonstrate how they have generated tsunami waves longer than the facility within which they operate, and will highlight research results from the three generations of Tsunami Simulator. Of direct relevance to engineers and modellers will be measurements of wave run-up levels and comparison with theoretical predictions. Recent measurements of forces on individual buildings have been generalized by separate experiments on buildings (up to 4 rows) which show that the greatest forces can act on the landward (not seaward) buildings. Continuing research in the 70m long 4m wide Fast Flow Facility on tsunami defence structures have also measured forces on buildings in the lee of a failed defence wall.

Forecasting database for the tsunami warning regional center for the western Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, A.; Hebert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hernandez, B.

2010-12-01

Improvements in the availability of sea-level observations and advances in numerical modeling techniques are increasing the potential for tsunami warnings to be based on numerical model forecasts. Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed, but they present a challenge to run in real-time, partly due to computational limitations and also to a lack of detailed knowledge on the earthquake rupture parameters. Through the establishment of the tsunami warning regional center for NE Atlantic and western Mediterranean Sea, the CEA is especially in charge of providing rapidly a map with uncertainties showing zones in the main axis of energy at the Mediterranean scale. The strategy is based initially on a pre-computed tsunami scenarios database, as source parameters available a short time after an earthquake occurs are preliminary and may be somewhat inaccurate. Existing numerical models are good enough to provide a useful guidance for warning structures to be quickly disseminated. When an event will occur, an appropriate variety of offshore tsunami propagation scenarios by combining pre-computed propagation solutions (single or multi sources) may be recalled through an automatic interface. This approach would provide quick estimates of tsunami offshore propagation, and aid hazard assessment and evacuation decision-making. As numerical model accuracy is inherently limited by errors in bathymetry and topography, and as inundation maps calculation is more complex and expensive in term of computational time, only tsunami offshore propagation modeling will be included in the forecasting database using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid for the numerical modeling. Because of too much variability in the mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquakes, all possible magnitudes cannot be represented in the scenarios database. In principle, an infinite number of tsunami propagation scenarios can be constructed by linear combinations of a finite number of pre-computed unit scenarios. The whole notion of a pre-computed forecasting database also requires a historical earthquake and tsunami database, as well as an up-to-date seismotectonic database including faults geometry and a zonation based on seismotectonic synthesis of source zones and tsunamigenic faults. Our forecast strategy is thus based on a unit source function methodology, whereby the model runs are combined and scaled linearly to produce any composite tsunamis propagation solution. Each unit source function is equivalent to a tsunami generated by a Mo 1.75E+19 N.m earthquake (Mw ~6.8) with a rectangular fault 25 km by 20 km in size and 1 m in slip. The faults of the unit functions are placed adjacent to each other, following the discretization of the main seismogenic faults bounding the western Mediterranean basin. The number of unit functions involved varies with the magnitude of the wanted composite solution and the combined waveheights are multiplied by a given scaling factor to produce the new arbitrary scenario. Some test-cases examples are presented (e.g., Boumerdès 2003 [Algeria, Mw 6.8], Djijel 1856 [Algeria, Mw 7.2], Ligure 1887 [Italia, Mw 6.5-6.7]).

Towards a probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for the Gulf of Cadiz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn; Urgeles, Roger

2017-04-01

Landslides and volcanic flank collapses constitute a significant portion of all known tsunami sources, and they are less constrained geographically than earthquakes as they are not tied to large fault zones. While landslides have mostly produced local tsunamis historically, prehistoric evidence show that landslides can also produce ocean wide tsunamis. Because the landslide induced tsunami probability is more difficult to quantify than the one induced by earthquakes, our understanding of the landslide tsunami hazard is less understood. To improve our understanding and methodologies to deal with this hazard, we here present results and methods for a preliminary landslide probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (LPTHA) for the Gulf of Cadiz for submerged landslides. The present literature on LPTHA is sparse, and studies have so far been separated into two groups, the first based on observed magnitude frequency distributions (MFD's), the second based on simplified geotechnical slope stability analysis. We argue that the MFD based approach is best suited when a sufficient amount of data covering a wide range of volumes is available, although uncertainties in the dating of the landslides often represent a potential large source of bias. To this end, the relatively rich availability of landslide data in the Gulf of Cadiz makes this area suitable for developing and testing LPTHA models. In the presentation, we will first explore the landslide data and statistics, including different spatial factors such as slope versus volume relationships, faults etc. Examples of how random realizations can be used to distribute tsunami source over the study area will be demonstrated. Furthermore, computational strategies for simulating both the landslide and the tsunami generation in a simplified way will be described. To this end, we use depth averaged viscoplastic landslide model coupled to the numerical tsunami model to represent a set of idealized tsunami sources, which are in turn put into a regional tsunami model for computing the tsunami propagation. We devote attention to discussing the epistemic uncertainty and sensitivity of the landslide input parameters, and how these may affect the hazard assessment. As the full variability of the landslide parameters cannot be endured, we show that there is a considerable challenge related to the multiple landslide parameter variability. Finally, we discuss some logical next steps in the analysis, as well as possible sources of error.

Generation, propagation and run-up of tsunamis due to the Chicxulub impact event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weisz, R.; Wuennenmann, K.; Bahlburg, H.

2003-04-01

The Chicxulub impact event can be investigated in (1) local, (2) regional and in (3) global scales. Our investigations focus on the regional scale, especially on the influence of tsunami waves on the coast around the Gulf of Mexico caused by the impact. During an impact two types of tsunamis are generated. The first wave is known as the "rim wave" and is generated in front of the ejecta curtain. The second one is linked to the late modification stage of the impact and results from the collapsing cavity of water. We designate this wave as "collapse wave". The "rim wave" and "collapse wave" are able to propagate over long distances, without a significant loss of wave amplitude. Corresponding to the amplitudes, the waves have a potentially large influence on the coastal areas. Run-up distance and run-up height can be used as parameters for describing this influence. We are utilizing a multimaterial hydrocode (SALE) to simulate the generation of tsunami waves. The propagation of the waves is based on the non-linear shallow water theory, because tsunami waves are defined to be long waves. The position of the coast line varies according to the tsunami run-up and is implemented with open boundary conditions. We show with our investigations (1) the generation of tsunami waves due to shallow water impacts, (2) wave damping during propagation, and (3) the influence of the "rim wave" and the "collapse wave" on the coastal areas. Here, we present our first results from numerical modeling of tsunami waves owing to a Chicxulub sized impactor. The characteristics of the “rim wave” depend on the size of the bolide and the water depth. However, the amplitude and velocity of the “collapse wave” is only determined by the water depth in the impact area. The numerical modeling of the tsunami propagation and run-up is calculated along a section from the impact point towards to the west and gives the moderate damping of both waves and the run-up on the coastal area. As a first approximation, the bathymetric data, used in the wave propagation and run-up, correspond to a linearized bathymetry of the Recent Gulf of Mexico. The linearized bathymetry allows to study the influence of the bathymetry on wave propagation and run-up. Additionally, we give preliminary results of the implementation of the two-dimensional propagation and run-up model for arbitrary bathymetries. The two-dimensional wave propagation model will enable us to more realistically asses the influence of the impact-related tsunamis on the coasts around the Gulf of Mexico due to the Chicxulub impact event.

Multiscale Modelling of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami with Fluidity: Coastal Inundation and Run-up.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, J.; Martin-Short, R.; Piggott, M. D.; Candy, A. S.

2014-12-01

Tsunami-induced flooding represents one of the most dangerous natural hazards to coastal communities around the world, as exemplified by Tohoku tsunami of March 2011. In order to further understand this hazard and to design appropriate mitigation it is necessary to develop versatile, accurate software capable of simulating large scale tsunami propagation and interaction with coastal geomorphology on a local scale. One such software package is Fluidity, an open source, finite element, multiscale, code that is capable of solving the fully three dimensional Navier-Stokes equations on unstructured meshes. Such meshes are significantly better at representing complex coastline shapes than structured meshes and have the advantage of allowing variation in element size across a domain. Furthermore, Fluidity incorporates a novel wetting and drying algorithm, which enables accurate, efficient simulation of tsunami run-up over complex, multiscale, topography. Fluidity has previously been demonstrated to accurately simulate the 2011 Tohoku tsunami (Oishi et al 2013) , but its wetting and drying facility has not yet been tested on a geographical scale. This study makes use of Fluidity to simulate the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and its interaction with Japan's eastern shoreline, including coastal flooding. The results are validated against observations made by survey teams, aerial photographs and previous modelling efforts in order to evaluate Fluidity's current capabilities and suggest methods of future improvement. The code is shown to perform well at simulating flooding along the topographically complex Tohoku coast of Japan, with major deviations between model and observation arising mainly due to limitations imposed by bathymetry resolution, which could be improved in future. In theory, Fluidity is capable of full multiscale tsunami modelling, thus enabling researchers to understand both wave propagation across ocean basins and flooding of coastal landscapes down to interaction with individual defence structures. This makes the code an exciting candidate for use in future studies aiming to investigate tsunami risk elsewhere in the world. Oishi, Y. et al. Three-dimensional tsunami propagation simulations using an unstructured mesh finite element model. J. Geophys. Res. [Solid Earth] 118, 2998-3018 (2013).

What caused a large number of fatalities in the Tohoku earthquake?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, M.; Ishida, M.; Nishikawa, Y.; Mizuki, C.; Hayashi, Y.

2012-04-01

The Mw9.0 earthquake caused 20,000 deaths and missing persons in northeastern Japan. 115 years prior to this event, there were three historical tsunamis that struck the region, one of which is a "tsunami earthquake" resulted with a death toll of 22,000. Since then, numerous breakwaters were constructed along the entire northeastern coasts and tsunami evacuation drills were carried out and hazard maps were distributed to local residents on numerous communities. However, despite the constructions and preparedness efforts, the March 11 Tohoku earthquake caused numerous fatalities. The strong shaking lasted three minutes or longer, thus all residents recognized that this is the strongest and longest earthquake that they had been ever experienced in their lives. The tsunami inundated an enormous area at about 560km2 over 35 cities along the coast of northeast Japan. To find out the reasons behind the high number of fatalities due to the March 11 tsunami, we interviewed 150 tsunami survivors at public evacuation shelters in 7 cities mainly in Iwate prefecture in mid-April and early June 2011. Interviews were done for about 30min or longer focused on their evacuation behaviors and those that they had observed. On the basis of the interviews, we found that residents' decisions not to evacuate immediately were partly due to or influenced by earthquake science results. Below are some of the factors that affected residents' decisions. 1. Earthquake hazard assessments turned out to be incorrect. Expected earthquake magnitudes and resultant hazards in northeastern Japan assessed and publicized by the government were significantly smaller than the actual Tohoku earthquake. 2. Many residents did not receive accurate tsunami warnings. The first tsunami warning were too small compared with the actual tsunami heights. 3. The previous frequent warnings with overestimated tsunami height influenced the behavior of the residents. 4. Many local residents above 55 years old experienced the 1960 Chile tsunami, which was significantly smaller than that of the 11 March tsunami. This sense of "knowing" put their lives at high risk. 5. Some local residents believed that with the presence of a breakwater, only slight flooding would occur. 6. Many people did not understand why tsunami is created under the sea. Therefore, relation of earthquake and tsunami is not quite linked to many people. These interviews made it clear that many deaths resulted because current technology and earthquake science underestimated tsunami heights, warning systems failed, and breakwaters were not strong or high enough. However, even if these problems occur in future earthquakes, better knowledge regarding earthquakes and tsunami hazards could save more lives. In an elementary school when children have fresh brain, it is necessary for them to learn the basic mechanism of tsunami generation.

Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Run-up and Inundation in Hawaii due to Distant Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gica, E.; Teng, M. H.; Liu, P. L.

2004-12-01

Risk assessment of natural hazards usually includes two aspects, namely, the probability of the natural hazard occurrence and the degree of damage caused by the natural hazard. Our current study is focused on the first aspect, i.e., the development and evaluation of a methodology that can predict the probability of coastal inundation due to distant tsunamis in the Pacific Basin. The calculation of the probability of tsunami inundation could be a simple statistical problem if a sufficiently long record of field data on inundation was available. Unfortunately, such field data are very limited in the Pacific Basin due to the reason that field measurement of inundation requires the physical presence of surveyors on site. In some areas, no field measurements were ever conducted in the past. Fortunately, there are more complete and reliable historical data on earthquakes in the Pacific Basin partly because earthquakes can be measured remotely. There are also numerical simulation models such as the Cornell COMCOT model that can predict tsunami generation by an earthquake, propagation in the open ocean, and inundation onto a coastal land. Our objective is to develop a methodology that can link the probability of earthquakes in the Pacific Basin with the inundation probability in a coastal area. The probabilistic methodology applied here involves the following steps: first, the Pacific Rim is divided into blocks of potential earthquake sources based on the past earthquake record and fault information. Then the COMCOT model is used to predict the inundation at a distant coastal area due to a tsunami generated by an earthquake of a particular magnitude in each source block. This simulation generates a response relationship between the coastal inundation and an earthquake of a particular magnitude and location. Since the earthquake statistics is known for each block, by summing the probability of all earthquakes in the Pacific Rim, the probability of the inundation in a coastal area can be determined through the response relationship. Although the idea of the statistical methodology applied here is not new, this study is the first to apply it to study the probability of inundation caused by earthquake-generated distant tsunamis in the Pacific Basin. As a case study, the methodology is applied to predict the tsunami inundation risk in Hilo Bay in Hawaii. Since relatively more field data on tsunami inundation are available for Hilo Bay, this case study can help to evaluate the applicability of the methodology for predicting tsunami inundation risk in the Pacific Basin. Detailed results will be presented at the AGU meeting.

Tsunami evacuation simulation considering differences in evacuation means depending on the household attribute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiki, Nao; Hirata, Yoshiki; Matsuo, Kojiro

2017-10-01

Large scale earthquakes occur frequently in Japan in recent years. In the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in 2011 and caused major damage, more than 90% of the dead were due to the tsunami. The speed of evacuation is important in considering evacuation at the time of the attack of the tsunami, especially the elderly evacuation speed is assumed to be slower than non-elderly people. Elderly people may have different means of evacuation and speed depending on the composition of the households to which they belong because of the different possibilities of riding in families' driven cars. However, a simulation taking such a difference of evacuation into consideration has not been conducted. The purpose of this study is to conduct a tsunami evacuation simulation in consideration of evacuation measures and speed depending on the type of households belonging to in the tsunami inundation area of Toyohashi city, Japan. In order to conduct the tsunami evacuation simulation considering the household type, detailed data on individual households is necessary. However, it is difficult to obtain from aggregated data such as National Census. Therefore, detailed data on individual households is created by using the household micro data estimation system developed by Sugiki et al. [1]. Evacuation simulation is performed by shortest path search using Esri's ArcGIS Network Analyst's OD cost matrix analysis. The elderly people who cannot complete evacuation by the time of the arrival of the tsunami were found from evacuation simulation results assuming evacuation measures available for each household attribute to which the evacuees belong.

Simulation of the Tsunami Resulting from the M 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake - Dynamic Rupture vs. Seismic Inversion Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vater, Stefan; Behrens, Jörn

2017-04-01

Simulations of historic tsunami events such as the 2004 Sumatra or the 2011 Tohoku event are usually initialized using earthquake sources resulting from inversion of seismic data. Also, other data from ocean buoys etc. is sometimes included in the derivation of the source model. The associated tsunami event can often be well simulated in this way, and the results show high correlation with measured data. However, it is unclear how the derived source model compares to the particular earthquake event. In this study we use the results from dynamic rupture simulations obtained with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-DG discretization solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. The tsunami model is based on a second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme on triangular grids and features a robust wetting and drying scheme for the simulation of inundation events at the coast. Adaptive mesh refinement enables the efficient computation of large domains, while at the same time it allows for high local resolution and geometric accuracy. The results are compared to measured data and results using earthquake sources based on inversion. With the approach of using the output of actual dynamic rupture simulations, we can estimate the influence of different earthquake parameters. Furthermore, the comparison to other source models enables a thorough comparison and validation of important tsunami parameters, such as the runup at the coast. This work is part of the ASCETE (Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events) project, which aims at an improved understanding of the coupling between the earthquake and the generated tsunami event.

Should tsunami models use a nonzero initial condition for horizontal velocity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nava, G.; Lotto, G. C.; Dunham, E. M.

2017-12-01

Tsunami propagation in the open ocean is most commonly modeled by solving the shallow water wave equations. These equations require two initial conditions: one on sea surface height and another on depth-averaged horizontal particle velocity or, equivalently, horizontal momentum. While most modelers assume that initial velocity is zero, Y.T. Song and collaborators have argued for nonzero initial velocity, claiming that horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor imparts significant horizontal momentum to the ocean. They show examples in which this effect increases the resulting tsunami height by a factor of two or more relative to models in which initial velocity is zero. We test this claim with a "full-physics" integrated dynamic rupture and tsunami model that couples the elastic response of the Earth to the linearized acoustic-gravitational response of a compressible ocean with gravity; the model self-consistently accounts for seismic waves in the solid Earth, acoustic waves in the ocean, and tsunamis (with dispersion at short wavelengths). We run several full-physics simulations of subduction zone megathrust ruptures and tsunamis in geometries with a sloping seafloor, using both idealized structures and a more realistic Tohoku structure. Substantial horizontal momentum is imparted to the ocean, but almost all momentum is carried away in the form of ocean acoustic waves. We compare tsunami propagation in each full-physics simulation to that predicted by an equivalent shallow water wave simulation with varying assumptions regarding initial conditions. We find that the initial horizontal velocity conditions proposed by Song and collaborators consistently overestimate the tsunami amplitude and predict an inconsistent wave profile. Finally, we determine tsunami initial conditions that are rigorously consistent with our full-physics simulations by isolating the tsunami waves (from ocean acoustic and seismic waves) at some final time, and backpropagating the tsunami waves to their initial state by solving the adjoint problem. The resulting initial conditions have negligible horizontal velocity.

Tsunami response system for ports in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, H.-R.; Cho, J.-S.; Cho, Y.-S.

2015-09-01

The tsunamis that have occurred in many places around the world over the past decade have taken a heavy toll on human lives and property. The eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula is not safe from tsunamis, particularly the eastern coastal areas, which have long sustained tsunami damage. The eastern coast had been attacked by 1983 and 1993 tsunami events. The aim of this study was to mitigate the casualties and property damage against unexpected tsunami attacks along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula by developing a proper tsunami response system for important ports and harbors with high population densities and high concentrations of key national industries. The system is made based on numerical and physical modelings of 3 historical and 11 virtual tsunamis events, field surveys, and extensive interviews with related people.

Variations in population exposure and evacuation potential to multiple tsunami evacuation phases on Alameda and Bay Farm Islands, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, J.

2015-12-01

Planning for a tsunami evacuation is challenging for California communities due to the variety of earthquake sources that could generate a tsunami. A maximum tsunami inundation zone is currently the basis for all tsunami evacuations in California, although an Evacuation Playbook consisting of specific event-based evacuation phases relating to flooding severity is in development. We chose to investigate the Evacuation Playbook approach for the island community of Alameda, CA since past reports estimated a significant difference in numbers of residents in the maximum inundation zone when compared to an event-based inundation zone. In order to recognize variations in the types of residents and businesses within each phase, a population exposure analysis was conducted for each of the four Alameda evacuation phases. A pedestrian evacuation analysis using an anisotropic, path distance model was also conducted to understand the time it would take for populations to reach high ground by foot. Initial results suggest that the two islands of the City of Alameda have different situations when it comes to the four tsunami evacuation phases. Pedestrian evacuation results suggest that Bay Farm Island would have more success evacuating by vehicle due to limited nearby high ground for pedestrians to reach safety. Therefore, agent-based traffic simulation software was used to model vehicle evacuation off Bay Farm Island. Initial results show that Alameda Island could face challenges evacuating numerous boat docks and a large beach for phases 1 and 2, whereas Bay Farm Island is unaffected at these phases but might be challenged with evacuating by vehicle for phases 3 and maximum due to congestion on limited egress routes. A better understanding of the population exposure within each tsunami Evacuation Playbook phase and the time it would take to evacuate out of each phase by foot or vehicle will help emergency managers implement the evacuation phases during an actual tsunami event.

Can Asteroid Airbursts Cause Dangerous Tsunami?.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark B.

I have performed a series of high-resolution hydrocode simulations to generate “source functions” for tsunami simulations as part of a proof-of-principle effort to determine whether or not the downward momentum from an asteroid airburst can couple energy into a dangerous tsunami in deep water. My new CTH simulations show enhanced momentum multiplication relative to a nuclear explosion of the same yield. Extensive sensitivity and convergence analyses demonstrate that results are robust and repeatable for simulations with sufficiently high resolution using adaptive mesh refinement. I have provided surface overpressure and wind velocity fields to tsunami modelers to use as time-dependent boundarymore » conditions and to test the hypothesis that this mechanism can enhance the strength of the resulting shallow-water wave. The enhanced momentum result suggests that coupling from an over-water plume-forming airburst could be a more efficient tsunami source mechanism than a collapsing impact cavity or direct air blast alone, but not necessarily due to the originally-proposed mechanism. This result has significant implications for asteroid impact risk assessment and airburst-generated tsunami will be the focus of a NASA-sponsored workshop at the Ames Research Center next summer, with follow-on funding expected.« less

Simulations and analysis of asteroid-generated tsunamis using the shallow water equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, M. J.; LeVeque, R. J.; Weiss, R.

2016-12-01

We discuss tsunami propagation for asteroid-generated air bursts and water impacts. We present simulations for a range of conditions using the GeoClaw simulation software. Examples include meteors that span 5 to 250 MT of kinetic energy, and use bathymetry from the U.S. coastline. We also study radially symmetric one-dimensional equations to better explore the nature and decay rate of waves generated by air burst pressure disturbances traveling at the speed of sound in air, which is much greater than the gravity wave speed of the tsunami generated. One-dimensional simulations along a transect of bathymetry are also used to explore the resolution needed for the full two-dimensional simulations, which are much more expensive even with the use of adaptive mesh refinement due to the short wave lengths of these tsunamis. For this same reason, shallow water equations may be inadequate and we also discuss dispersive effects.

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-01-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-08-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

2016-05-01

Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami simulations of the Tokelau Islands suggest that dry areas remain around the villages, which are typically built on a high islet. Consistent with the oral history of little or no perceived tsunami threat, simulations from the recent Tohoku and Chile earthquake sources suggest only limited flooding around low-lying islets of the atoll. Where potential tsunami flooding is inferred from the modelling, recommended minimum evacuation heights above local sea level are compiled, with particular attention paid to variations in tsunami flood depth around the atolls, subdivided into directional quadrants around each atoll. However, complex wave behaviours around the atolls, islets, tidal channels and within the lagoons are also observed in our simulations. Wave amplitudes within the lagoons may exceed 50 cm, increasing any inundation and potential hazards on the inner shoreline of the atolls, which in turn may influence evacuation strategies. Our study shows that indicative simulation studies can be achieved even with only basic field information. In part, this is due to the spatially and vertically limited topography of the atoll, short reef flat and steep seaward bathymetry, and the simple depth profile of the lagoon bathymetry.

Mathematical modelling of tsunami impacts on critical infrastructures: exposure and severity associated with debris transport at Sines port, Portugal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conde, Daniel; Baptista, Maria Ana; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Ferreira, Rui M. L.

2015-04-01

Global energy production is still significantly dependant on the coal supply chain, justifying huge investments on building infrastructures, capable of stocking very large quantities of this natural resource. Most of these infrastructures are located at deep-sea ports and are therefore exposed to extreme coastal hazards, such as tsunami impacts. The 2011 Tohoku tsunami is reported to have inflicted severe damage to Japan's coal-fired power stations and related infrastructure. Sines, located in the Portuguese coast, hosts a major commercial port featuring an exposed coal stockpile area extending over more than 24 ha and a container terminal currently under expansion up to 100ha. It is protected against storm surges but tsunamis have not been considered in the design criteria. The dominant wind-generated wave direction is N to NW, while the main tsunamigenic faults are located S to SW of the port. This configuration potentially exposes sensitive facilities, such as the new terminal container and the coal stockpile area. According to a recent revision of the national tsunami catalogue (Baptista, 2009), Portugal has been affected by numerous major tsunamis over the last two millennia, with the most notorious event being the Great Lisbon Earthquake and Tsunami occurred on the 1st November 1755. The aim of this work is to simulate the open ocean propagation and overland impact of a tsunami on the Sines port, similar to the historical event of 1755, based on the different tsunamigenic faults and magnitudes proposed in the current literature. Open ocean propagation was modelled with standard simulation tools like TUNAMI and GeoClaw. Near-shore and overland propagation was carried out using a recent 2DH mathematical model for solid-fluid flows, STAV-2D from CERIS-IST (Ferreira et al., 2009; Canelas, 2013). STAV-2D is particularly suited for tsunami propagation over complex and morphodynamic geometries, featuring a discretization scheme based on a finite-volume method using a flux-splitting technique with a reviewed Roe-Riemann solver and appropriate source-term formulations to ensure full conservativeness. Additionally, STAV-2D features Lagrangian-Eulerian coupling enabling solid transport simulation under both continuum and discrete approaches, and has been validated with both laboratory data and paleo-tsunami evidence (Conde, 2013a; Conde, 2013b). The interactions between the inundating flow and coal stockpiles or natural mobile bed reaches were simulated using a continuum debris-flow approach, featuring fractional solid transport, while the containers at the new terminal were advected with an explicit Lagrangian method. The meshwork employed at the port models the existing geometry and structures in great detail, enabling explicitly resolved interactions between the current infrastructure and the overland propagating tsunami. The obtained preliminary results suggest that several structures, some of them critical in a nationwide context, are exposed to tsunami actions. The coal deposition pattern and the final location of monitored containers were determined for two magnitude scenarios (8.5 Mw and 9.5 Mw) in the case of a tsunami generated at the Horseshoe fault and one magnitude scenario (9.5 Mw) for a tsunami generated at the Gorringe bank. The inland washing of the coal stockpiles may impose great loss of both economical and environmental value, while the impact of large mobile debris, such as the containers in the terminal area, significantly increases the severity of infrastructural damage. Acknowledgements This work was partially funded by FEDER, program COMPETE, and by national funds through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) with project RECI/ECM-HID/0371/2012. References Baptista M.A. & Miranda, J.M. (2009), Revision of the Portuguese catalog of tsunamis. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 25-42. Canelas, R.; Murillo, J. & Ferreira, R.M.L. (2013), Two-dimensional depth-averaged modelling of dam-break flows over mobile beds. Vol 51(4) pp. 392-407. Conde, D. A. S.; Baptista, M. A. V.; Sousa Oliveira, C. & Ferreira, R. M. L. (2013a), A shallow-flow model for the propagation of tsunamis over complex geometries and mobile beds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2533-2542. Conde, D. A. S.; Canelas, R. B.; Sousa Oliveira, C. & Ferreira, R. M. L. (2013b), Mathematical modelling of transport of coal stockpiles by a tsunami at Sines port, 8th International SedNet Conference 2013, Lisbon, Portugal. Ferreira, R. M. L.; Franca, M. J.; Leal, J. G. & Cardoso, A. H. (2009), Mathematical modelling of shallow flows: Closure models drawn from grain-scale mechanics of sediment transport and flow hydrodynamics, Can. J. Civil. Eng., 36, 1604-1621, 2009.

Determination of source process and the tsunami simulation of the 2013 Santa Cruz earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S. C.; Lee, J. W.; Park, E.; Kim, S.

2014-12-01

In order to understand the characteristics of large tsunamigenic earthquakes, we analyzed the earthquake source process of the 2013 Santa Cruz earthquake and simulated the following tsunami. We first estimated the fault length of about 200 km using 3-day aftershock distribution and the source duration of about 110 seconds using the duration of high-frequency energy radiation (Hara, 2007). Moment magnitude was estimated to be 8.0 using the formula of Hara (2007). From the results of 200 km of fault length and 110 seconds of source duration, we used the initial value of rupture velocity as 1.8 km/s for teleseismic waveform inversions. Teleseismic body wave inversion was carried out using the inversion package by Kikuchi and Kanamori (1991). Teleseismic P waveform data from 14 stations were used and band-pass filter of 0.005 ~ 1 Hz was applied. Our best-fit solution indicated that the earthquake occurred on the northwesterly striking (strike = 305) and shallowly dipping (dip = 13) fault plane. Focal depth was determined to be 23 km indicating shallow event. Moment magnitude of 7.8 was obtained showing somewhat smaller than the result obtained above and that of previous study (Lay et al., 2013). Large slip area was seen around the hypocenter. Using the slip distribution obtained by teleseismic waveform inversion, we calculated the surface deformations using formulas of Okada (1985) assuming as the initial change of sea water by tsunami. Then tsunami simulation was carred out using Conell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) code and 1 min-grid topographic data for water depth from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocenas (GEBCO). According to the tsunami simulation, most of tsunami waves propagated to the directions of southwest and northeast which are perpendicular to the fault strike. DART buoy data were used to verify our simulation. In the presentation, we will discuss more details on the results of source process and tsunami simulation and compare them with the previous study.

Towards a robust framework for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for local and regional tsunami in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Christof; Power, William; Fraser, Stuart; Wang, Xiaoming

2013-04-01

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is conceptually closely related to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). The main difference is that PTHA needs to simulate propagation of tsunami waves through the ocean and cannot rely on attenuation relationships, which makes PTHA computationally more expensive. The wave propagation process can be assumed to be linear as long as water depth is much larger than the wave amplitude of the tsunami. Beyond this limit a non-linear scheme has to be employed with significantly higher algorithmic run times. PTHA considering far-field tsunami sources typically uses unit source simulations, and relies on the linearity of the process by later scaling and combining the wave fields of individual simulations to represent the intended earthquake magnitude and rupture area. Probabilistic assessments are typically made for locations offshore but close to the coast. Inundation is calculated only for significantly contributing events (de-aggregation). For local and regional tsunami it has been demonstrated that earthquake rupture complexity has a significant effect on the tsunami amplitude distribution offshore and also on inundation. In this case PTHA has to take variable slip distributions and non-linearity into account. A unit source approach cannot easily be applied. Rupture complexity is seen as an aleatory uncertainty and can be incorporated directly into the rate calculation. We have developed a framework that manages the large number of simulations required for local PTHA. As an initial case study the effect of rupture complexity on tsunami inundation and the statistics of the distribution of wave heights have been investigated for plate-interface earthquakes in the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand. Assessing the probability that water levels will be in excess of a certain threshold requires the calculation of empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF). We compare our results with traditional estimates for tsunami inundation simulations that do not consider rupture complexity. De-aggregation based on moment magnitude alone might not be appropriate, because the hazard posed by any individual event can be underestimated locally if rupture complexity is ignored.

Sensitivity study of the Storegga Slide tsunami using retrogressive and visco-plastic rheology models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jihwan; Løvholt, Finn

2016-04-01

Enormous submarine landslides having volumes up to thousands of km3 and long run-out may cause tsunamis with widespread effects. Clay-rich landslides, such as Trænadjupet and Storegga offshore Norway commonly involve retrogressive mass and momentum release mechanisms that affect the tsunami generation. As a consequence, the failure mechanisms, soil parameters, and release rate of the retrogression are of importance for the tsunami generation. Previous attempts to model the tsunami generation due to retrogressive landslides are few, and limited to idealized conditions. Here, a visco-plastic model including additional effects such as remolding, time dependent mass release, and hydrodynamic resistance, is employed for simulating the Storegga Slide. As landslide strength parameters and their evolution in time are uncertain, it is necessary to conduct a sensitivity study to shed light on the tsunamigenic processes. The induced tsunami is simulated using Geoclaw. We also compare our tsunami simulations with recent analysis conducted using a pure retrogressive model for the landslide, as well as previously published results using a block model. The availability of paleotsunami run-up data and detailed slide deposits provides a suitable background for improved understanding of the slide mechanics and tsunami generation. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under grant number 231252 (Project TsunamiLand) and the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603839 (Project ASTARTE).

Worst-Case Scenario Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Two Historically and Economically Important Districts in Eastern Sicily (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.; Paparo, M. A.

2015-12-01

The portion of the eastern Sicily coastline (southern Italy), ranging from the southern part of the Catania Gulf (to the north) down to the southern-eastern end of the island, represents a very important geographical domain from the industrial, commercial, military, historical and cultural points of view. Here the two major cities of Augusta and Siracusa are found. In particular, the Augusta bay hosts one of the largest petrochemical poles in the Mediterranean, and Siracusa is listed among the UNESCO World Heritage Sites since 2005. This area was hit by at least seven tsunamis in the approximate time interval from 1600 BC to present, the most famous being the 365, 1169, 1693 and 1908 tsunamis. The choice of this area as one of the sites for the testing of innovative methods for tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and reduction is then fully justified. This is being developed in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3). We assess the tsunami hazard for the Augusta-Siracusa area through the worst-case credible scenario technique, which can be schematically divided into the following steps: 1) Selection of five main source areas, both in the near- and in the far-field (Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, Messina Straits, Ionian subduction zone, Calabria offshore, western Hellenic Trench); 2) Choice of potential and credible tsunamigenic faults in each area: 38 faults were selected, with properly assigned magnitude, geometry and focal mechanism; 3) Computation of the maximum tsunami wave elevations along the eastern Sicily coast on a coarse grid (by means of the in-house code UBO-TSUFD) and extraction of the 9 scenarios that produce the largest effects in the target areas of Augusta and Siracusa; 4) For each of the 9 scenarios we run numerical UBO-TSUFD simulations over a set of five nested grids, with grid cells size decreasing from 3 km in the open Ionian sea to 40 m in the target areas of Augusta and Siracusa. The simulation results consist of fields of maximum water elevation, of maximum water column, of maximum velocity and of maximum momentum flux. The main findings for each single scenario and for the aggregate scenario are presented and discussed.

Origin of the ahead of tsunami traveling ionospheric disturbances during Sumatra tsunami and offshore forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagiya, Mala S.; Kherani, E. A.; Sunil, P. S.; Sunil, A. S.; Sunda, S.; Ramesh, D. S.

2017-07-01

The presence of ionospheric disturbances associated with Sumatra 2004 tsunami that propagated ahead of tsunami itself has previously been identified. However, their origin remains unresolved till date. Focusing on their origin mechanism, we document these ionospheric disturbances referred as Ahead of tsunami Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (ATIDs). Using total electron content (TEC) data from GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation GPS receivers located near the Indian east coast, we first confirm the ATIDs presence in TEC that appear 90 min ahead of the arrival of tsunami at the Indian east coast. We propose here a simulation study based on tsunami-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling that considers tsunamigenic acoustic gravity waves (AGWs) to excite these disturbances. We explain the ATIDs generation based on the dissipation of transverse mode of the primary AGWs. The simulation corroborates the excitation of ATIDs with characteristics similar to the observations. Therefore, we offer an alternative theoretical tool to monitor the offshore ATIDs where observations are either rare or not available and could be potentially important for the tsunami early warning.

Modeling the mitigation effect of coastal forests on tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

2017-08-01

As we have learned from the 26 Dec 2004 mega Andaman tsunami that killed 250, 000 lives worldwide, tsunami is a devastating natural disaster that can cause severe impacts including immense loss of human lives and extensive destruction of properties. The wave energy can be dissipated by the presence of coastal mangrove forests, which provide some degree of protection against tsunami waves. On the other hand, costly artificial structures such as reinforced walls can substantially diminish the aesthetic value and may cause environmental problems. To quantify the effectiveness of coastal forests in mitigating tsunami waves, an in-house 2-D model TUNA-RP is developed and used to quantify the reduction in wave heights and velocities due to the presence of coastal forests. The degree of reduction varies significantly depending on forest flow-resistant properties such as vegetation characteristics, forest density and forest width. The ability of coastal forest in reducing tsunami wave heights along the west coast of Penang Island is quantified by means of model simulations. Comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and 2-D TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrated good agreement.

The Contribution of Coseismic Displacements due to Splay Faults Into the Local Wavefield of the 1964 Alaska Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Ruppert, N.; Fisher, M.; West, D.; Hansen, R.

2008-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Information Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska. For many locations in the Gulf of Alaska, the 1964 tsunami generated by the Mw9.2 Great Alaska earthquake may be the worst-case tsunami scenario. We use the 1964 tsunami observations to verify our numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup, therefore it is essential to use an adequate source function of the 1964 earthquake to reduce the level of uncertainty in the modeling results. It was shown that the 1964 co-seismic slip occurred both on the megathrust and crustal splay faults (Plafker, 1969). Plafker (2006) suggested that crustal faults were a major contributor to vertical displacements that generated local tsunami waves. Using eyewitness arrival times of the highest observed waves, he suggested that the initial tsunami wave was higher and closer to the shore, than if it was generated by slip on the megathrust. We conduct a numerical study of two different source functions of the 1964 tsunami to test whether the crustal splay faults had significant effects on local tsunami runup heights and arrival times. The first source function was developed by Johnson et al. (1996) through joint inversion of the far-field tsunami waveforms and geodetic data. The authors did not include crustal faults in the inversion, because the contribution of these faults to the far-field tsunami was negligible. The second is the new coseismic displacement model developed by Suito and Freymueller (2008, submitted). This model extends the Montague Island fault farther along the Kenai Peninsula coast and thus reduces slip on the megathrust in that region. We also use an improved geometry of the Patton Bay fault based on the deep crustal seismic reflection and earthquake data. We propagate tsunami waves generated by both source models across the Pacific Ocean and record wave amplitudes at the locations of the tide gages that recorded the 1964 tsunami. As expected, the two sources produce very similar waveforms in the far field that are also in good agreement with the tide gage records. In order to study the near-field tsunami effects, we will construct embedded telescoping bathymetry grids around tsunami generation area to calculate tsunami arrival times and sea surface heights for both source models of the 1964 earthquake, and use available observation data to verify the model results.

Village Level Tsunami Threat Maps for Tamil Nadu, SE Coast of India: Numerical Modeling Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MP, J.; Kulangara Madham Subrahmanian, D.; V, R. M.

2014-12-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) devastated several countries of North Indian Ocean. India is one of the worst affected countries after Indonesia and Sri Lanka. In India, Tamil Nadu suffered maximum with fatalities exceeding 8,000 people. Historical records show that tsunami has invaded the shores of Tamil Nadu in the past and has made people realize that the tsunami threat looms over Tamil Nadu and it is necessary to evolve strategies for tsunami threat management. The IOT has brought to light that tsunami inundation and runup varied within short distances and for the disaster management for tsunami, large scale maps showing areas that are likely to be affected by future tsunami are identified. Therefore threat assessment for six villages including Mamallapuram (also called Mahabalipuram) which is famous for its rock-cut temples, from the northern part of Tamil Nadu state of India has been carried out and threat maps categorizing the coast into areas of different degree of threat are prepared. The threat was assessed by numerical modeling using TUNAMI N2 code considering different tsunamigenic sources along the Andaman - Sumatra trench. While GEBCO and C-Map data was used for bathymetry and for land elevation data was generated by RTK - GPS survey for a distance of 1 km from shore and SRTM for the inland areas. The model results show that in addition to the Sumatra source which generated the IOT in 2004, earthquakes originating in Car Nicobar and North Andaman can inflict more damage. The North Andaman source can generate a massive tsunami and an earthquake of magnitude more than Mw 9 can not only affect Tamil Nadu but also entire south east coast of India. The runup water level is used to demarcate the tsunami threat zones in the villages using GIS.

A new GIS-based tsunami risk evaluation: MeTHuVA (METU tsunami human vulnerability assessment) at Yenikapı, Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lutfi; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Kolat, Cagil; Zaytsev, Andrey; Aytore, Betul

2016-07-01

Istanbul is a mega city with various coastal utilities located on the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapı, there are critical vulnerable coastal utilities, structures, and active metropolitan life. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, waterfront commercial and/or recreational structures with residential/commercial areas and public utility areas are some examples of coastal utilization that are vulnerable to marine disasters. Therefore, the tsunami risk in the Yenikapı region is an important issue for Istanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment for areas susceptible to tsunami is proposed, in which the Yenikapı region is chosen as a case study. Available datasets from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and Turkish Navy are used as inputs for high-resolution GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) evaluation of tsunami risk in Yenikapı. Bathymetry and topography database is used for high-resolution tsunami numerical modeling where the tsunami hazard, in terms of coastal inundation, is deterministically computed using the NAMI DANCE numerical code, considering earthquake worst case scenarios. In order to define the tsunami human vulnerability of the region, two different aspects, vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience maps were created using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of MCDA. A vulnerability at location map is composed of metropolitan use, geology, elevation, and distance from shoreline layers, whereas an evacuation resilience map is formed by slope, distance within flat areas, distance to buildings, and distance to road networks layers. The tsunami risk map is then computed by the proposed new relationship which uses flow depth maps, vulnerability at location maps, and evacuation resilience maps.

Scenario-based numerical modelling and the palaeo-historic record of tsunamis in Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarche, G.; Popinet, S.; Pelletier, B.; Mountjoy, J.; Goff, J.; Delaux, S.; Bind, J.

2015-08-01

We investigated the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using the Gerris flow solver to produce numerical models of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited volcanic island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef. Futuna and the island of Alofi form the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east of Wallis. They are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef. Futuna and Alofi emerge from the North Fiji Transform Fault that marks the seismically active Pacific-Australia plate boundary. We generated 15 tsunami scenarios. For each, we calculated maximum wave elevation (MWE), inundation distance and expected time of arrival (ETA). The tsunami sources were local, regional and distant earthquake faults located along the Pacific Rim. In Wallis, the outer reef may experience 6.8 m-high MWE. Uvéa is protected by the barrier reef and the lagoon, but inundation depths of 2-3 m occur in several coastal areas. In Futuna, flow depths exceeding 2 m are modelled in several populated areas, and have been confirmed by a post-September 2009 South Pacific tsunami survey. The channel between the islands of Futuna and Alofi amplified the 2009 tsunami, which resulted in inundation distance of almost 100 m and MWE of 4.4 m. This first ever tsunami hazard modelling study of Wallis and Futuna compares well with palaeotsunamis recognised on both islands and observation of the impact of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. The study provides evidence for the mitigating effect of barrier and fringing reefs from tsunamis.

Scenario-based numerical modelling and the palaeo-historic record of tsunamis in Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarche, G.; Popinet, S.; Pelletier, B.; Mountjoy, J.; Goff, J.; Delaux, S.; Bind, J.

2015-04-01

We investigated the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using the Gerris flow solver to produce numerical models of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited volcanic island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef. Futuna and the island of Alofi forms the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east of Wallis. They are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef. Futuna and Alofi emerge from the North Fiji Transform Fault that marks the seismically active Pacific-Australia plate boundary. We generated fifteen tsunami scenarios. For each, we calculated maximum wave elevation (MWE), inundation distance, and Expected Time of Arrival (ETA). The tsunami sources were local, regional and distant earthquake faults located along the Pacific Rim. In Wallis, the outer reef may experience 6.8 m-high MWE. Uvéa is protected by the barrier reef and the lagoon, but inundation depths of 2-3 m occur in several coastal areas. In Futuna, flow depths exceeding 2 m are modelled in several populated areas, and have been confirmed by a post-September 2009 South Pacific tsunami survey. The channel between the islands of Futuna and Alofi amplified the 2009 tsunami, which resulted in inundation distance of almost 100 m and MWE of 4.4 m. This first-ever tsunami hazard modelling study of Wallis and Futuna compares well with palaeotsunamis recognised on both islands and observation of the impact of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. The study provides evidence for the mitigating effect of barrier and fringing reefs from tsunamis.

June 13, 2013 U.S. East Coast Meteotsunami: Comparing a Numerical Model With Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Becker, N. C.; Weinstein, S.; Whitmore, P.; Knight, W.; Kim, Y.; Bouchard, R. H.; Grissom, K.

2013-12-01

On June 13, 2013, a tsunami struck the U.S. East Coast and caused several reported injuries. This tsunami occurred after a derecho moved offshore from North America into the Atlantic Ocean. The presence of this storm, the lack of a seismic source, and the fact that tsunami arrival times at tide stations and deep ocean-bottom pressure sensors cannot be attributed to a 'point-source' suggest this tsunami was caused by atmospheric forces, i.e., a meteotsunami. In this study we attempt to reproduce the observed phenomenon using a numerical model with idealized atmospheric pressure forcing resembling the propagation of the observed barometric anomaly. The numerical model was able to capture some observed features of the tsunami at some tide stations, including the time-lag between the time of pressure jump and the time of tsunami arrival. The model also captures the response at a deep ocean-bottom pressure gauge (DART 44402), including the primary wave and the reflected wave. There are two components of the oceanic response to the propagating pressure anomaly, inverted barometer response and dynamic response. We find that the dynamic response over the deep ocean to be much smaller than the inverted barometer response. The time lag between the pressure jump and tsunami arrival at tide stations is due to the dynamic response: waves generated and/or reflected at the shelf-break propagate shoreward and amplify due to the shoaling effect. The evolution of the derecho over the deep ocean (propagation direction and intensity) is not well defined, however, because of the lack of data so the forcing used for this study is somewhat speculative. Better definition of the pressure anomaly through increased observation or high resolution atmospheric models would improve meteotsunami forecast capabilities.

Observations and Modeling of the August 27, 2012 Earthquake and Tsunami affecting El Salvador and Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, Jose C.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Lynett, Patrick J.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Newman, Andrew V.; Convers, Jaime A.

2014-12-01

On 27 August 2012 (04:37 UTC, 26 August 10:37 p.m. local time) a magnitude M w = 7.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of El Salvador and generated surprisingly large local tsunami. Following the event, local and international tsunami teams surveyed the tsunami effects in El Salvador and northern Nicaragua. The tsunami reached a maximum height of ~6 m with inundation of up to 340 m inland along a 25 km section of coastline in eastern El Salvador. Less severe inundation was reported in northern Nicaragua. In the far-field, the tsunami was recorded by a DART buoy and tide gauges in several locations of the eastern Pacific Ocean but did not cause any damage. The field measurements and recordings are compared to numerical modeling results using initial conditions of tsunami generation based on finite-fault earthquake and tsunami inversions and a uniform slip model.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the southern Colombian Pacific basin and a proposal to regenerate a previous barrier island as protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Gonzalez, M.

2014-05-01

In this study, the tsunami hazard posed to 120 000 inhabitants of Tumaco (Colombia) is assessed, and an evaluation and analysis of regenerating the previous El Guano Island for tsunami protection is conducted. El Guano Island was a sandy barrier island in front of the city of Tumaco until its disappearance during the tsunami of 1979; the island is believed to have played a protective role, substantially reducing the scale of the disaster. The analysis is conducted by identifying seismotectonic parameters and focal mechanisms of tsunami generation in the area, determining seven potential generation sources, applying a numerical model for tsunami generation and propagation, and evaluating the effect of tsunamis on Tumaco. The results show that in the current situation, this area is vulnerable to impact and flooding by tsunamis originating nearby. El Guano Island was found to markedly reduce flood levels and the energy flux of tsunami waves in Tumaco during the 1979 tsunami. By reducing the risk of flooding due to tsunamis, the regeneration and morphological modification of El Guano Island would help to protect Tumaco.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the southern Colombian Pacific Basin and a proposal to regenerate a previous barrier island as protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Gonzalez, M.

2013-04-01

In this study, the tsunami hazard posed to 120 000 inhabitants of Tumaco (Colombia) is assessed, and an evaluation and analysis of regenerating the previous El Guano Island for tsunami protection is conducted. El Guano Island was a sandy barrier island in front of the city of Tumaco until its disappearance during the tsunami of 1979; the island is believed to have played a protective role, substantially reducing the scale of the disaster. The analysis is conducted by identifying seismotectonic parameters and focal mechanisms of tsunami generation in the area, determining seven potential generation sources, applying a numerical model for tsunami generation and propagation, and evaluating the effect of tsunamis on Tumaco. The results show that in the current situation, this area is vulnerable to impact and flooding by tsunamis originating nearby. El Guano Island was found to markedly reduce flood levels and the energy flux of tsunami waves in Tumaco during the 1979 tsunami. To reduce the risk of flooding due to tsunamis, the regeneration and morphological modification of El Guano Island would help to protect Tumaco.

Improving tsunami warning systems with remote sensing and geographical information system input.

PubMed

Wang, Jin-Feng; Li, Lian-Fa

2008-12-01

An optimal and integrative tsunami warning system is introduced that takes full advantage of remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS) in monitoring, forecasting, detection, loss evaluation, and relief management for tsunamis. Using the primary impact zone in Banda Aceh, Indonesia as the pilot area, we conducted three simulations that showed that while the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami claimed about 300,000 lives because there was no tsunami warning system at all, it is possible that only about 15,000 lives could have been lost if the area had used a tsunami warning system like that currently in use in the Pacific Ocean. The simulations further calculated that the death toll could have been about 3,000 deaths if there had been a disaster system further optimized with full use of remote sensing and GIS, although the number of badly damaged or destroyed houses (29,545) could have likely remained unchanged.

Coral reefs reduce tsunami impact in model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, Catherine M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2006-12-01

Significant buffering of the impact of tsunamis by coral reefs is suggested by limited observations and some anecdotal reports, particularly following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Here we simulate tsunami run-up on idealized topographies in one and two dimensions using a nonlinear shallow water model and show that a sufficiently wide barrier reef within a meter or two of the surface reduces run-up on land on the order of 50%. We studied topographies representative of volcanic islands (islands with no continental shelf) but our conclusions may pertain to other topographies. Effectiveness depends on the amplitude and wavelength of the incident tsunami, as well as the geometry and health of the reef and the offshore distance of the reef. Reducing the threat to reefs from anthropogenic nutrients, sedimentation, fishing practices, channel-building, and global warming would help to protect some islands against tsunamis.

Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Block, Gary; Li, P. Peggy; Song, Yuhe T.

2007-01-01

This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

A new physics-based modeling approach for tsunami-ionosphere coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Komjathy, A.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Yang, Y.-M.; Deng, Y.; Mannucci, A. J.

2015-06-01

Tsunamis can generate gravity waves propagating upward through the atmosphere, inducing total electron content (TEC) disturbances in the ionosphere. To capture this process, we have implemented tsunami-generated gravity waves into the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) to construct a three-dimensional physics-based model WP (Wave Perturbation)-GITM. WP-GITM takes tsunami wave properties, including the wave height, wave period, wavelength, and propagation direction, as inputs and time-dependently characterizes the responses of the upper atmosphere between 100 km and 600 km altitudes. We apply WP-GITM to simulate the ionosphere above the West Coast of the United States around the time when the tsunami associated with the March 2011 Tohuku-Oki earthquke arrived. The simulated TEC perturbations agree with Global Positioning System observations reasonably well. For the first time, a fully self-consistent and physics-based model has reproduced the GPS-observed traveling ionospheric signatures of an actual tsunami event.

Preliminary report on crustal deformation surveys and tsunami measurements due to the July 17, 2006 Java Earthquake and Tsunami, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, T.; Ito, T.; Abidin, H. Z.; Agustan, A.

2006-12-01

A large earthquake along a plate boundary occurred in the south of Java Island on July 17, 2006, whose magnitude was 7.7 (USGS) and caused significant tsunami. We made GPS observations and tsunami heights measurements during the period from July 24 to August 1, 2006. The earthquake seems to be due to an interplate low angle reverse faulting (e.g. Yagi, 2006). Yet, there would be a possibility of high angle faulting within the subducting lithosphere (e.g., Yamanaka, 2006). Crustal deformation distribution due to the earthquake, aided by tsunami heights measurements, might clarify which would be the case. We occupied 29 sites by GPS in the area of southern Java Island encompassing the area from 107.8E to 109.50E. These sites were occupied once before the earthquake so that co-seismic displacements might be seen. If we assume that the slip on the fault surface is as that estimated assuming magnitude to be 7.7, co- seismic displacements would be as small as a few centimeters or less. However, the tsunami heights measurements at 11 sites that were conducted along with the GPS observation were 6-7m along the southern coast of Java Islands and indicates that the observed heights are systematically higher than that estimated from numerical simulations (e.g., Koshimura, 2006). This might suggest that fault offsets have been larger nearly double - than that estimated using seismic analysis. If this is the case, the co-seismic crustal movements might be larger than above estimation. This might lead us to an idea that the rupture was very slow and did not radiate enough seismic energy to underestimate the earthquake magnitude. If this is the case, the earthquake might have been a "tsunami earthquake" that is similar to the one that occurred on June 2, 1994 in the east of the present earthquake.

Effect of harbor modifications on the tsunami vulnerability of Crescent City, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.

2008-12-01

Crescent City, California has experienced more damaging tsunami events in historic times than any other location on the West Coast of the United States. Thirty-one tsunamis have been observed at Crescent City since a tide gauge was established in 1933, including eleven events with maximum peak to trough wave range exceeding one meter and four that caused damage. The most damaging event occurred in 1964 as a result of the great Alaska earthquake. The ensuing tsunami flooded 29 city blocks and killed 11 in the Crescent City area. As a result of the 1964 tsunami and redevelopment projects, the Crescent City harbor was significantly modified in the early 1970s. A 200 x 300 meter small boat basin was carved into the preexisting shore line, a 123 meter dog leg extension was added to the central breakwater and significant deepening occurred on the eastern side of the harbor. In 2006, a Mw 8.3 earthquake in the Kuril Islands generated a moderate Pacific-wide tsunami. The only location with significant damage was the Crescent City harbor where strong currents damaged docks and boats, causing an estimated 9.2 million (US dollars) in damages. Strong currents estimated by the Harbor Master at 12 knots were observed near the entrance to the small boat basin. Past earthquakes from the northwestern Pacific including the 1933 M 8.3 Sanriku Japan earthquake may have produced similar amplitudes at Crescent City to the 2006 event but caused no damage. We have obtained the pre-modification harbor bathymetry and use the MOST model to compare tsunami water heights and current velocities for the 1933 and 2006 sources using modern and pre- modification bathymetry. We also examine model the 1964 inundation using the actual bathymetry and compare the results to numerical simulations that have only used the modern data.

Simultaneous Sea-Level Oscillations in Japanese Bays Induced by the Tsunami of Nankai-Trough Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Y.; Furumura, T.; Imamura, F.; Yamashita, K.; Sugawara, D.

2016-12-01

In this study, we investigate the response of bays to the tsunami of Nankai-trough earthquake based on tsunami simulations and demonstrate the possibility that sea-level oscillation of each bay, which is induced by an incident tsunami, interacts with those of other bays. Several major cities in Japan, including the capital, are located in the bays near the Nankai trough and it is assumed that these cities will be largely affected by the tsunamis caused by recurring large earthquakes at the trough. Therefore, it is very important for these populated cities to understand the mechanism and properties of the tsunami-induced oscillations that continue for a long time in bays to draw up evacuation plans. To investigate the response of bays for various tsunamis that may occur in the Nankai trough area, we distributed the tsunami sources that have the form of a 2-D Gaussian function around the Nankai trough. From simulations with these sources, it was found that strong oscillations of bay water occur when the source is located in the bay itself or when strong oscillations occur in other bays. For example, when the Tosa bay oscillates, the Tokyo bay that is 600 km away from the Tosa bay also oscillates. Among the bays around the Nankai trough, the Suruga bay, the deepest bay in Japan with a 2500-km depth, oscillates more strongly than other bays for most cases. To check the influence of the strong oscillations in the Suruga bay on other bays, we conducted tsunami simulations using a modified topography model in which the Suruga bay is artificially landfilled. As a consequence, the strength of oscillations in the adjacent bays are reduced by 20-30%, suggesting the large influence of the distinguished oscillation of the Suruga bay on these bays. We finally conducted tsunami simulations using the eleven Nankai-trough earthquake scenarios of the Central Disaster Prevention Council (CDPC) of Japan as tsunami sources, and the mutual relation regarding the strengths of oscillations among the bays around the Nankai trough was confirmed irrespective of the earthquake scenarios. The results of this study suggest that oscillations of the bays do not occur independently in each bay but simultaneously occur among the bays. More detailed characteristics of the response of the bays to the tsunamis in the Nankai-trough area will be discussed in the presentation.

A Benchmarking setup for Coupled Earthquake Cycle - Dynamic Rupture - Tsunami Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, Joern; Bader, Michael; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Uphoff, Carsten; Vater, Stefan; Wollherr, Stephanie; van Zelst, Iris

2017-04-01

We developed a simulation framework for coupled physics-based earthquake rupture generation with tsunami propagation and inundation on a simplified subduction zone system for the project "Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events" (ASCETE, funded by the Volkswagen Foundation). Here, we present a benchmarking setup that can be used for complex rupture models. The workflow begins with a 2D seismo-thermo-mechanical earthquake cycle model representing long term deformation along a planar, shallowly dipping subduction zone interface. Slip instabilities that approximate earthquakes arise spontaneously along the subduction zone interface in this model. The absolute stress field and material properties for a single slip event are used as initial conditions for a dynamic earthquake rupture model.The rupture simulation is performed with SeisSol, which uses an ADER discontinuous Galerkin discretization scheme with an unstructured tetrahedral mesh. The seafloor displacements resulting from this rupture are transferred to the tsunami model with a simple coastal run-up profile. An adaptive mesh discretizing the shallow water equations with a Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme subsequently allows for an accurate and efficient representation of the tsunami evolution and inundation at the coast. This workflow allows for evaluation of how the rupture behavior affects the hydrodynamic wave propagation and coastal inundation. We present coupled results for differing earthquake scenarios. Examples include megathrust only ruptures versus ruptures with splay fault branching off the megathrust near the surface. Coupling to the tsunami simulation component is performed either dynamically (time dependent) or statically, resulting in differing tsunami wave and inundation behavior. The simplified topographical setup allows for systematic parameter studies and reproducible physical studies.

Simulation of landslide and tsunami of the 1741 Oshima-Oshima eruption in Hokkaido, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioki, K.; Yanagisawa, H.; Tanioka, Y.; Kawakami, G.; Kase, Y.; Nishina, K.; Hirose, W.; Ishimaru, S.

2017-12-01

The 1741 tsunami was generated by the Oshima-Oshima sector collapse in the southwestern Hokkaido, Japan. The tsunami caused great damage along the coast of Japan Sea in Oshima and Tsugaru peninsula and was the largest scale generated in the Japan sea. By the survey of tsunami deposits, at the coast of Okushiri Island and Hiyama in Hokkaido, tsunami deposits of this tsunami were found. In this study, the landslide and tsunami by the Oshima-Oshima eruption were modeled to explain distribution of debris deposits, tsunami heights by historical records, and distribution of tsunami deposits. First, region of landslide and debris deposits were made out from the bathymetry based on the bathymetry survey data (Satake and Kato, 2001) in the north slope of Oshima-Oshima. In addition, topography before the sector collapse and landslide volume were re-estimated. The volume of landslide was estimated at 2.2 km3. Based on those data, the landslide and tsunami were simulated using two-layer model considered soil mass and water mass. The model was made improvements the integrated model of landslide and tsunami (Yanagisawa et al., 2014). The angle of internal friction was calculated 4 cases, included the bottom friction term in soil mass, to affect the movement of landslide. The Manning's roughness coefficient was calculated 5 cases, included the bottom friction term in soil mass, to affect the generation of tsunami. By the parameter study, optimal solutions were found. As the results, soil mass slid slowly submarine slope and stopped after about 15 minutes. Distribution of computed debris deposits agree relatively well with region of debris deposits made out from the bathymetry. On the other hand, the first wave of tsunami was generated during 1 minute that soil mass was sliding. Calculated tsunami heights match with historical records along the coast of Okushiri and Hiyama in Hokkaido. Calculated inundation area of tsunami cover distribution of tsunami deposits found by tsunami deposits survey in Okushiri and Hiyama coast.

Multi-GPGPU Tsunami simulation at Toyama-bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furuyama, Shoichi; Ueda, Yuki

2017-07-01

Accelerated multi General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) calculation for Tsunami run-up simulation was achieved at the wide area (whole Toyama-bay in Japan) by faster computation technique. Toyama-bay has active-faults at the sea-bed. It has a high possibility to occur earthquakes and Tsunami waves in the case of the huge earthquake, that's why to predict the area of Tsunami run-up is important for decreasing damages to residents by the disaster. However it is very hard task to achieve the simulation by the computer resources problem. A several meter's order of the high resolution calculation is required for the running-up Tsunami simulation because artificial structures on the ground such as roads, buildings, and houses are very small. On the other hand the huge area simulation is also required. In the Toyama-bay case the area is 42 [km] × 15 [km]. When 5 [m] × 5 [m] size computational cells are used for the simulation, over 26,000,000 computational cells are generated. To calculate the simulation, a normal CPU desktop computer took about 10 hours for the calculation. An improvement of calculation time is important problem for the immediate prediction system of Tsunami running-up, as a result it will contribute to protect a lot of residents around the coastal region. The study tried to decrease this calculation time by using multi GPGPU system which is equipped with six NVIDIA TESLA K20xs, InfiniBand network connection between computer nodes by MVAPICH library. As a result 5.16 times faster calculation was achieved on six GPUs than one GPU case and it was 86% parallel efficiency to the linear speed up.

Modeling potential tsunami sources for deposits near Unalaska Island, Aleutian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Selle, S.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.

2013-12-01

In regions with little seismic data and short historical records of earthquakes, we can use preserved tsunami deposits and tsunami modeling to infer if, when and where tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred. The Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone in the region offshore of Unalaska Island is one such region where the historical and paleo-seismicity is poorly understood. This section of the subduction zone is not thought to have ruptured historically in a large earthquake, leading some to designate the region as a seismic gap. By modeling various historical and synthetic earthquake sources, we investigate whether or not tsunamis that left deposits near Unalaska Island were generated by earthquakes rupturing through Unalaska Gap. Preliminary field investigations near the eastern end of Unalaska Island have identified paleotsunami deposits well above sea level, suggesting that multiple tsunamis in the last 5,000 years have flooded low-lying areas over 1 km inland. Other indicators of tsunami inundation, such as a breached cobble beach berm and driftwood logs stranded far inland, were tentatively attributed to the March 9, 1957 tsunami, which had reported runup of 13 to 22 meters on Umnak and Unimak Islands, to the west and east of Unalaska. In order to determine if tsunami inundation could have reached the runup markers observed on Unalaska, we modeled the 1957 tsunami using GeoCLAW, a numerical model that simulates tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation. The published rupture orientation and slip distribution for the MW 8.6, 1957 earthquake (Johnson et al., 1994) was used as the tsunami source, which delineates a 1200 km long rupture zone along the Aleutian trench from Delarof Island to Unimak Island. Model results indicate that runup and inundation from this particular source are too low to account for the runup markers observed in the field, because slip is concentrated in the western half of the rupture zone, far from Unalaska. To ascertain if any realistic, earthquake-generated tsunami could account for the observed runup, we modeled tsunami inundation from synthetic MW 9.2 earthquakes rupturing along the trench between Atka and Unimak Islands, which indicate that the deposit runup observed on Unalaska is possible from a source of this size and orientation. Further modeling efforts will examine the April 1, 1946 Aleutian tsunami, as well as other synthetic tsunamigenic earthquake sources of varying size and location, which may provide insight into the rupture history of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone, especially in combination with more data from paleotsunami deposits. Johnson, Jean M., Tanioka, Yuichiro, Ruff, Larry J., Satake, Kenji, Kanamori, Hiroo, Sykes, Lynn R. "The 1957 great Aleutian earthquake." Pure and Applied Geophysics 142.1 (1994): 3-28.

Coastal Tsunami and Risk Assessment for Eastern Mediterranean Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kentel, E.; Yavuz, C.

2017-12-01

Tsunamis are rarely experienced events that have enormous potential to cause large economic destruction on the critical infrastructures and facilities, social devastation due to mass casualty, and environmental adverse effects like erosion, accumulation and inundation. Especially for the past two decades, nations have encountered devastating tsunami events. The aim of this study is to investigate risks along the Mediterranean coastline due to probable tsunamis based on simulations using reliable historical data. In order to do this, 50 Critical Regions, CRs, (i.e. city centers, agricultural areas and summer villages) and 43 Critical Infrastructures, CIs, (i.e. airports, ports & marinas and industrial structures) are determined to perform people-centered risk assessment along Eastern Mediterranean region covering 7 countries. These countries include Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, and Libya. Bathymetry of the region is given in Figure 1. In this study, NAMI-DANCE is used to carry out tsunami simulations. Source of a sample tsunami simulation and maximum wave propagation in the study area for this sample tsunami are given in Figures 2 and 3, respectively.Richter magnitude,, focal depth, time of occurrence in a day and season are considered as the independent parameters of the earthquake. Historical earthquakes are used to generate reliable probability distributions for these parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) Simulations are carried out to evaluate overall risks at the coastline. Inundation level, population density, number of passenger or employee, literacy rate, annually income level and existence of human are used in risk estimations. Within each MC simulation and for each grid in the study area, people-centered tsunami risk for each of the following elements at risk is calculated: i. City centers ii. Agricultural areas iii. Summer villages iv. Ports and marinas v. Airports vi. Industrial structures Risk levels at each grid along the shoreline are calculated based on the factors given above, grouped into low, medium and high risk, and used in generating the risk map. The risk map will be useful in prioritizing areas that require development of tsunami mitigation measures.

Large Historical Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Italy: The Neglected Tsunami Research Point of View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2015-12-01

It is known that tsunamis are rather rare events, especially when compared to earthquakes, and the Italian coasts are no exception. Nonetheless, a striking evidence is that 6 out of 10 earthquakes occurred in the last thousand years in Italy, and having equivalent moment magnitude equal or larger than 7 where accompanied by destructive or heavily damaging tsunamis. If we extend the lower limit of the equivalent moment magnitude down to 6.5 the percentage decreases (around 40%), but is still significant. Famous events like those occurred on 30 July 1627 in Gargano, on 11 January 1693 in eastern Sicily, and on 28 December 1908 in the Messina Straits are part of this list: they were all characterized by maximum run-ups of several meters (13 m for the 1908 tsunami), significant maximum inundation distances, and large (although not precisely quantifiable) numbers of victims. Further evidences provided in the last decade by paleo-tsunami deposit analyses help to better characterize the tsunami impact and confirm that none of the cited events can be reduced to local or secondary effects. Proper analysis and simulation of available tsunami data would then appear as an obvious part of the correct definition of the sources responsible for the largest Italian tsunamigenic earthquakes, in a process in which different datasets analyzed by different disciplines must be reconciled rather than put into contrast with each other. Unfortunately, macroseismic, seismic and geological/geomorphological observations and data typically are assigned much heavier weights, and in-land faults are often assigned larger credit than the offshore ones, even when evidence is provided by tsunami simulations that they are not at all capable of justifying the observed tsunami effects. Tsunami generation is imputed a-priori to only supposed, and sometimes even non-existing, submarine landslides. We try to summarize the tsunami research point of view on the largest Italian historical tsunamigenic earthquakes; we highlight the open problems, and suggest that tsunami observations and simulations can contribute towards their solution. This study is funded in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Tsunami Hazard in La Réunion Island (SW Indian Ocean): Scenario-Based Numerical Modelling on Vulnerable Coastal Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allgeyer, S.; Quentel, É.; Hébert, H.; Gailler, A.; Loevenbruck, A.

2017-08-01

Several major tsunamis have affected the southwest Indian Ocean area since the 2004 Sumatra event, and some of them (2005, 2006, 2007 and 2010) have hit La Réunion Island in the southwest Indian Ocean. However, tsunami hazard is not well defined for La Réunion Island where vulnerable coastlines can be exposed. This study offers a first tsunami hazard assesment for La Réunion Island. We first review the historical tsunami observations made on the coastlines, where high tsunami waves (2-3 m) have been reported on the western coast, especially during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Numerical models of historical scenarios yield results consistent with available observations on the coastal sites (the harbours of La Pointe des Galets and Saint-Paul). The 1833 Pagai earthquake and tsunami can be considered as the worst-case historical scenario for this area. In a second step, we assess the tsunami exposure by covering the major subduction zones with syntethic events of constant magnitude (8.7, 9.0 and 9.3). The aggregation of magnitude 8.7 scenarios all generate strong currents in the harbours (3-7 m s^{-1}) and about 2 m of tsunami maximum height without significant inundation. The analysis of the magnitude 9.0 events confirms that the main commercial harbour (Port Est) is more vulnerable than Port Ouest and that flooding in Saint-Paul is limited to the beach area and the river mouth. Finally, the magnitude 9.3 scenarios show limited inundations close to the beach and in the riverbed in Saint-Paul. More generally, the results confirm that for La Runion, the Sumatra subduction zone is the most threatening non-local source area for tsunami generation. This study also shows that far-field coastal sites should be prepared for tsunami hazard and that further work is needed to improve operational warning procedures. Forecast methods should be developed to provide tools to enable the authorities to anticipate the local effects of tsunamis and to evacuate the harbours in sufficient time when such an earthquake occurs.

The Great Chilean Tsunamis of 2010, 2014 and 2015 on the Coast and Offshore of Mexico: Comparative Features Based on Open-Ocean Energy Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, A.; Zaytsev, O.; Thomson, R.

2016-12-01

The three recent great earthquakes offshore of Chile on 27 February 2010 (Maule, Mw 8.8), 1 April 2014 (Iquique, Mw 8.2) and 16 September 2015 (Illapel, Mw 8.3) generated major trans-oceanic tsunamis that spread throughout the entire Pacific Ocean and were measured by numerous coastal tide gauges and open-ocean DART stations. Statistical and spectral analyses of the tsunami waves from the three events recorded on the Pacific coast of Mexico enabled us to compare the events and to identify coastal "hot spots", regions with maximum tsunami risk. Based on joint spectral analyses of tsunamis and background noise, we have developed a method for reconstructing the "true" tsunami spectra in the deep ocean. The "reconstructed" open-ocean tsunami spectra are in excellent agreement with the actual tsunami spectra evaluated from direct analysis of the DART records offshore of Mexico. We have further used the spectral estimates to parameterize the energy of the three Chilean tsunamis based on the total open-ocean tsunami energy and frequency content of the individual events.

Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Meng, L.

2015-12-01

Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800 instruments) and the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array (~400 instruments), are established.

Tsunami hazard assessment at Port Alberni, BC, Canada: preliminary model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grilli, S. T.; Insua, T. L.; Grilli, A. R.; Douglas, K. L.; Shelby, M. R.; Wang, K.; Gao, D.

2016-12-01

Located in the heart of Vancouver Island, BC, Port Alberni has a well-known history of tsunamis. Many of the Nuu-Chah-Nulth First Nations share oral stories about a strong fight between a thunderbird and a whale that caused big waves in a winter night, a story that is compatible with the recently recognized great Cascadia tsunami in January, 1700. Port Alberni, with a total population of approximately 20,000 people, lies beside the Somass River, at the very end of Barkley Sound Inlet. The narrow canal connecting this town to the Pacific Ocean runs for more than 64 km ( 40 miles) between steep mountains, providing an ideal setting for the amplification of tsunami waves through funnelling effects. The devastating effects of tsunamis are still fresh in residents' memories from the impact of the 1964 Alaska tsunami that caused serious damage to the city. In June 2016, Emergency Management BC ran a coastal exercise in Port Alberni, simulating the response to an earthquake and a tsunami. During three days, the emergency teams in the City of Port Alberni practiced and learned from the experience. Ocean Networks Canada contributed to this exercise with the development of preliminary simulations of tsunami impact on the city from a buried rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, including the Explorer segment. Wave propagation was simulated with the long-wave model FUNWAVE-TVD. Preliminary results indicate a strong amplification of tsunami waves in the Port Alberni area. The inundation zone in Port Alberni had a footprint similar to that of the 1700 Cascadia and 1964 Alaska tsunamis, inundating the area surrounding the Somass river and preferentially following the Kitsuksis and Roger Creek river margins into the city. Several other tsunami source scenarios, including splay faulting and trench-breaching ruptures are currently being modeled for the city of Port Alberni following a similar approach. These results will be presented at the conference.

Tsunami-driven gravity waves in the presence of vertically varying background and tidal wind structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laughman, B.; Fritts, D. C.; Lund, T. S.

2017-05-01

Many characteristics of tsunami-driven gravity waves (TDGWs) enable them to easily propagate into the thermosphere and ionosphere with appreciable amplitudes capable of producing detectable perturbations in electron densities and total electron content. The impact of vertically varying background and tidal wind structures on TDGW propagation is investigated with a series of idealized background wind profiles to assess the relative importance of wave reflection, critical-level approach, and dissipation. These numerical simulations employ a 2-D nonlinear anelastic finite-volume neutral atmosphere model which accounts for effects accompanying vertical gravity wave (GW) propagation such as amplitude growth with altitude. The GWs are excited by an idealized tsunami forcing with a 50 cm sea surface displacement, a 400 km horizontal wavelength, and a phase speed of 200 ms-1 consistent with previous studies of the tsunami generated by the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake. Results indicate that rather than partial reflection and trapping, the dominant process governing TDGW propagation to thermospheric altitudes is refraction to larger and smaller vertical scales, resulting in respectively larger and smaller vertical group velocities and respectively reduced and increased viscous dissipation. Under all considered background wind profiles, TDGWs were able to attain ionospheric altitudes with appreciable amplitudes. Finally, evidence of nonlinear effects is observed and the conditions leading to their formation is discussed.

A comparison between two inundation models for the 25 Ooctober 2010 Mentawai Islands Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Z.; Borrero, J. C.; Qiu, Q.; Hill, E. M.; Li, L.; Sieh, K. E.

2011-12-01

On 25 October 2010, an Mw~7.8 earthquake occurred on the Sumatra megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia, generating a tsunami which killed approximately 500 people. Following the event, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) initiated a post-tsunami field survey, collecting tsunami run-up data from more than 30 sites on Pagai Selatan, Pagai Utara and Sipora. The strongest tsunami effects were observed on several small islands offshore of Pagai Selatan, where runup exceeded 16 m. This presentation will focus on a detailed comparison between two tsunami propagation and inundation models: COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model) and MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami). Simulations are initialized using fault models based on data from a 1-hz GPS system that measured co-seismic deformation throughout the region. Preliminary simulations suggest that 2-m vertical seafloor deformation over a reasonably large area is required to recreate most of the observed tsunami effects. Since the GPS data suggest that subsidence of the islands is small, this implies that the tsunami source region is somewhat narrower and located further offshore than described in recently published earthquake source models based on teleseismic inversions alone. We will also discuss issues such as bathymetric and topographic data preparation and the uncertainty in the modeling results due to the lack of high resolution bathymetry and topography in the study area.

Modeling Tsunami Wave Generation Using a Two-layer Granular Landslide Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, G.; Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Shi, F.; Grilli, S. T.; Hsu, T. J.

2016-12-01

Tsunamis can be generated by subaerial or submarine landslides in reservoirs, lakes, fjords, bays and oceans. Compared to seismogenic tsunamis, landslide or submarine mass failure (SMF) tsunamis are normally characterized by relatively shorter wave lengths and stronger wave dispersion, and potentially may generate large wave amplitudes locally and high run-up along adjacent coastlines. Due to a complex interplay between the landslide and tsunami waves, accurate simulation of landslide motion as well as tsunami generation is a challenging task. We develop and test a new two-layer model for granular landslide motion and tsunami wave generation. The landslide is described as a saturated granular flow, accounting for intergranular stresses governed by Coulomb friction. Tsunami wave generation is simulated by the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic wave model NHWAVE, which is capable of capturing wave dispersion efficiently using a small number of discretized vertical levels. Depth-averaged governing equations for the granular landslide are derived in a slope-oriented coordinate system, taking into account the dynamic interaction between the lower-layer granular landslide and upper-layer water motion. The model is tested against laboratory experiments on impulsive wave generation by subaerial granular landslides. Model results illustrate a complex interplay between the granular landslide and tsunami waves, and they reasonably predict not only the tsunami wave generation but also the granular landslide motion from initiation to deposition.

The 2017 México Tsunami Record, Numerical Modeling and Threat Assessment in Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia

2018-03-01

An M w 8.2 earthquake and tsunami occurred offshore the Pacific coast of México on 2017-09-08, at 04:49 UTC. Costa Rican tide gauges have registered a total of 21 local, regional and far-field tsunamis. The Quepos gauge registered 12 tsunamis between 1960 and 2014 before it was relocated inside a harbor by late 2014, where it registered two more tsunamis. This paper analyzes the 2017 México tsunami as recorded by the Quepos gauge. It took 2 h for the tsunami to arrive to Quepos, with a first peak height of 9.35 cm and a maximum amplitude of 18.8 cm occurring about 6 h later. As a decision support tool, this tsunami was modeled for Quepos in real time using ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami) with the finer grid having a resolution of 1 arcsec ( 30 m). However, the model did not replicate the tsunami record well, probably due to the lack of a finer and more accurate bathymetry. In 2014, the National Tsunami Monitoring System of Costa Rica (SINAMOT) was created, acting as a national tsunami warning center. The occurrence of the 2017 México tsunami raised concerns about warning dissemination mechanisms for most coastal communities in Costa Rica, due to its short travel time.

Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) Mw 6.6 earthquake and tsunami of 20 July 2017: a test for the Mediterranean tsunami warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Necmioglu, Ocal; Ishibe, Takeo; Yalciner, Ahmet C.

2017-12-01

Various Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) within the Mediterranean Basin supply tsunami warnings including CAT-INGV (Italy), KOERI-RETMC (Turkey), and NOA/HL-NTWC (Greece). The 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) earthquake (Mw 6.6) and tsunami provided an opportunity to assess the response from these TSPs. Although the Bodrum-Kos tsunami was moderate (e.g., runup of 1.9 m) with little damage to properties, it was the first noticeable tsunami in the Mediterranean Basin since the 21 May 2003 western Mediterranean tsunami. Tsunami waveform analysis revealed that the trough-to-crest height was 34.1 cm at the near-field tide gauge station of Bodrum (Turkey). Tsunami period band was 2-30 min with peak periods at 7-13 min. We proposed a source fault model for this tsunami with the length and width of 25 and 15 km and uniform slip of 0.4 m. Tsunami simulations using both nodal planes produced almost same results in terms of agreement between tsunami observations and simulations. Different TSPs provided tsunami warnings at 10 min (CAT-INGV), 19 min (KOERI-RETMC), and 18 min (NOA/HL-NTWC) after the earthquake origin time. Apart from CAT-INGV, whose initial Mw estimation differed 0.2 units with respect to the final value, the response from the other two TSPs came relatively late compared to the desired warning time of 10 min, given the difficulties for timely and accurate calculation of earthquake magnitude and tsunami impact assessment. It is argued that even if a warning time of 10 min was achieved, it might not have been sufficient for addressing near-field tsunami hazards. Despite considerable progress and achievements made within the upstream components of NEAMTWS (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected seas Tsunami Warning System), the experience from this moderate tsunami may highlight the need for improving operational capabilities of TSPs, but more importantly for effectively integrating civil protection authorities into NEAMTWS and strengthening tsunami education programs.

Implementation and Challenges of the Tsunami Warning System in the Western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindelé, F.; Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Gutierrez, E.; Monnier, A.; Roudil, P.; Reymond, D.; Rivera, L.

2015-03-01

The French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) has been in operation since 2012. It is contributing to the North-eastern and Mediterranean (NEAM) tsunami warning and mitigation system coordinated by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, and benefits from data exchange with several foreign institutes. This center is supported by the French Government and provides French civil-protection authorities and member states of the NEAM region with relevant messages for assessing potential tsunami risk when an earthquake has occurred in the Western Mediterranean sea or the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean. To achieve its objectives, CENALT has developed a series of innovative techniques based on recent research results in seismology for early tsunami warning, monitoring of sea level variations and detection capability, and effective numerical computation of ongoing tsunamis.

Estimates of tsunami damage for Russian coast of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaytsev, Andrey; Yalciner, Ahmet; Pelinovsky, Efim

2010-05-01

The historic database of tsunamis in the Black Sea contains 20 - 30 events with different level of validity, and at least six events occurred in 20th century. Numerical modeling of the last historic events is performed in the framework of shallow-water theory with use of code NAMI-DANCE. The computed tide-gauge records in Russian coastal locations are in good agreement with instrumental data for the 1939 and 1966 tsunamis. The tsunami of the landslide origin occurred in Sochi in 1970 is modeled in the framework of the two-layer model realized in TUNAMI. Also, some hypothetic tsunamis generated in the open part of the Black Sea are computed and the distribution of the tsunami height along the Russian and Turkish coast ais found. In particular, the tsunami amplification near Sochi is highest to compare with other coastal locations on the Russian coast of Black Sea.

Tsunami Risk Assessment Modelling in Chabahar Port, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delavar, M. R.; Mohammadi, H.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

2017-09-01

The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC), the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan) reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India) and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST). In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km2 of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.

Tsunami Impact Computed from Offshore Modeling and Coastal Amplification Laws: Insights from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.

2015-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami gave the opportunity to gather unprecedented tsunami observation databases for various coastlines. We present here an analysis of such databases gathered for 3 coastlines, among the most impacted in 2004 in the intermediate- and far field: Thailand-Myanmar, SE India-Sri Lanka, and SE Madagascar. Non-linear shallow water tsunami modeling performed on a single 4' coarse bathymetric grid is compared to these observations, in order to check to which extent a simple approach based on the usual energy conservation laws (either Green's or Synolakis laws) can explain the data. The idea is to fit tsunami data with numerical modeling carried out without any refined coastal bathymetry/topography. To this end several parameters are discussed, namely the bathymetric depth to which model results must be extrapolated (using the Green's law), or the mean bathymetric slope to consider near the studied coast (when using the Synolakis law). Using extrapolation depths from 1 to 10 m generally allows a good fit; however, a 0.1 m is required for some others, especially in the far field (Madagascar) possibly due to enhanced numerical dispersion. Such a method also allows describing the tsunami impact variability along a given coastline. Then, using a series of scenarios, we propose a preliminary statistical assessment of tsunami impact for a given earthquake magnitude along the Indonesian subduction. Conversely, the sources mostly contributing to a specific hazard can also be mapped onto the sources, providing a first order definition of which sources are threatening the 3 studied coastlines.

Standards and Guidelines for Numerical Models for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V.; Gonzalez, F.; Kanoglu, U.; Yalciner, A.; Synolakis, C. E.

2006-12-01

An increased number of nations around the workd need to develop tsunami mitigation plans which invariably involve inundation maps for warning guidance and evacuation planning. There is the risk that inundation maps may be produced with older or untested methodology, as there are currently no standards for modeling tools. In the aftermath of the 2004 megatsunami, some models were used to model inundation for Cascadia events with results much larger than sediment records and existing state-of-the-art studies suggest leading to confusion among emergency management. Incorrectly assessing tsunami impact is hazardous, as recent events in 2006 in Tonga, Kythira, Greece and Central Java have suggested (Synolakis and Bernard, 2006). To calculate tsunami currents, forces and runup on coastal structures, and inundation of coastlines one must calculate the evolution of the tsunami wave from the deep ocean to its target site, numerically. No matter what the numerical model, validation (the process of ensuring that the model solves the parent equations of motion accurately) and verification (the process of ensuring that the model used represents geophysical reality appropriately) both are an essential. Validation ensures that the model performs well in a wide range of circumstances and is accomplished through comparison with analytical solutions. Verification ensures that the computational code performs well over a range of geophysical problems. A few analytic solutions have been validated themselves with laboratory data. Even fewer existing numerical models have been both validated with the analytical solutions and verified with both laboratory measurements and field measurements, thus establishing a gold standard for numerical codes for inundation mapping. While there is in principle no absolute certainty that a numerical code that has performed well in all the benchmark tests will also produce correct inundation predictions with any given source motions, validated codes reduce the level of uncertainty in their results to the uncertainty in the geophysical initial conditions. Further, when coupled with real--time free--field tsunami measurements from tsunameters, validated codes are the only choice for realistic forecasting of inundation; the consequences of failure are too ghastly to take chances with numerical procedures that have not been validated. We discuss a ten step process of benchmark tests for models used for inundation mapping. The associated methodology and algorithmes have to first be validated with analytical solutions, then verified with laboratory measurements and field data. The models need to be published in the scientific literature in peer-review journals indexed by ISI. While this process may appear onerous, it reflects our state of knowledge, and is the only defensible methodology when human lives are at stake. Synolakis, C.E., and Bernard, E.N, Tsunami science before and beyond Boxing Day 2004, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 364 1845, 2231--2263, 2005.

Simulation of a Dispersive Tsunami due to the 2016 El Salvador-Nicaragua Outer-Rise Earthquake (M w 6.9)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Ramirez, Amilcar Geovanny Cabrera; Yamanaka, Yusuke

2018-01-01

The 2016 El Salvador-Nicaragua outer-rise earthquake (M w 6.9) generated a small tsunami observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensor, DART 32411, in the Pacific Ocean off Central America. The dispersive observed tsunami is well simulated using the linear Boussinesq equations. From the dispersive character of tsunami waveform, the fault length and width of the outer-rise event is estimated to be 30 and 15 km, respectively. The estimated seismic moment of 3.16 × 1019 Nm is the same as the estimation in the Global CMT catalog. The dispersive character of the tsunami in the deep ocean caused by the 2016 outer-rise El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake could constrain the fault size and the slip amount or the seismic moment of the event.

Validation of tsunami inundation model TUNA-RP using OAR-PMEL-135 benchmark problem set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koh, H. L.; Teh, S. Y.; Tan, W. K.; Kh'ng, X. Y.

2017-05-01

A standard set of benchmark problems, known as OAR-PMEL-135, is developed by the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program for tsunami inundation model validation. Any tsunami inundation model must be tested for its accuracy and capability using this standard set of benchmark problems before it can be gainfully used for inundation simulation. The authors have previously developed an in-house tsunami inundation model known as TUNA-RP. This inundation model solves the two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equations coupled with a wet-dry moving boundary algorithm. This paper presents the validation of TUNA-RP against the solutions provided in the OAR-PMEL-135 benchmark problem set. This benchmark validation testing shows that TUNA-RP can indeed perform inundation simulation with accuracy consistent with that in the tested benchmark problem set.

Simulation of a Dispersive Tsunami due to the 2016 El Salvador-Nicaragua Outer-Rise Earthquake ( M w 6.9)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Ramirez, Amilcar Geovanny Cabrera; Yamanaka, Yusuke

2018-04-01

The 2016 El Salvador-Nicaragua outer-rise earthquake ( M w 6.9) generated a small tsunami observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensor, DART 32411, in the Pacific Ocean off Central America. The dispersive observed tsunami is well simulated using the linear Boussinesq equations. From the dispersive character of tsunami waveform, the fault length and width of the outer-rise event is estimated to be 30 and 15 km, respectively. The estimated seismic moment of 3.16 × 1019 Nm is the same as the estimation in the Global CMT catalog. The dispersive character of the tsunami in the deep ocean caused by the 2016 outer-rise El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake could constrain the fault size and the slip amount or the seismic moment of the event.

Tsunami Forecast Progress Five Years After Indonesian Disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, Vasily V.; Bernard, Eddie N.; Weinstein, Stuart A.; Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas E.

2010-05-01

Almost five years after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tragedy, tsunami warnings are finally benefiting from decades of research toward effective model-based forecasts. Since the 2004 tsunami, two seminal advances have been (i) deep-ocean tsunami measurements with tsunameters and (ii) their use in accurately forecasting tsunamis after the tsunami has been generated. Using direct measurements of deep-ocean tsunami heights, assimilated into numerical models for specific locations, greatly improves the real-time forecast accuracy over earthquake-derived magnitude estimates of tsunami impact. Since 2003, this method has been used to forecast tsunamis at specific harbors for different events in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Recent tsunamis illustrated how this technology is being adopted in global tsunami warning operations. The U.S. forecasting system was used by both research and operations to evaluate the tsunami hazard. Tests demonstrated the effectiveness of operational tsunami forecasting using real-time deep-ocean data assimilated into forecast models. Several examples also showed potential of distributed forecast tools. With IOC and USAID funding, NOAA researchers at PMEL developed the Community Model Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) tool and distributed it through extensive capacity-building sessions in the Indian Ocean. Over hundred scientists have been trained in tsunami inundation mapping, leading to the first generation of inundation models for many Indian Ocean shorelines. These same inundation models can also be used for real-time tsunami forecasts as was demonstrated during several events. Contact Information Vasily V. Titov, Seattle, Washington, USA, 98115

Effect of Sediments on Rupture Dynamics of Shallow Subduction Zone Earthquakes and Tsunami Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, S.

2011-12-01

Low-velocity fault zones have long been recognized for crustal earthquakes by using fault-zone trapped waves and geodetic observations on land. However, the most pronounced low-velocity fault zones are probably in the subduction zones where sediments on the seafloor are being continuously subducted. In this study I focus on shallow subduction zone earthquakes; these earthquakes pose a serious threat to human society in their ability in generating large tsunamis. Numerous observations indicate that these earthquakes have unusually long rupture durations, low rupture velocities, and/or small stress drops near the trench. However, the underlying physics is unclear. I will use dynamic rupture simulations with a finite-element method to investigate the dynamic stress evolution on faults induced by both sediments and free surface, and its relations with rupture velocity and slip. I will also explore the effect of off-fault yielding of sediments on the rupture characteristics and seafloor deformation. As shown in Ma and Beroza (2008), the more compliant hanging wall combined with free surface greatly increases the strength drop and slip near the trench. Sediments in the subduction zone likely have a significant role in the rupture dynamics of shallow subduction zone earthquakes and tsunami generation.

The Solomon Islands Tsunami of 6 February 2013 in the Santa Cruz Islands: Field Survey and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Hermann M.; Papantoniou, Antonios; Biukoto, Litea; Albert, Gilly; Wei, Yong

2014-05-01

On February 6, 2013 at 01:12:27 UTC (local time: UTC+11), a magnitude Mw 8.0 earthquake occurred 70 km to the west of Ndendo Island (Santa Cruz Island) in the Solomon Islands. The under-thrusting earthquake near a 90° bend, where the Australian plate subducts beneath the Pacific plate generated a locally focused tsunami in the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean. The tsunami claimed the lives of 10 people and injured 15, destroyed 588 houses and partially damaged 478 houses, affecting 4,509 people in 1,066 households corresponding to an estimated 37% of the population of Santa Cruz Island. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment and coral boulder depositions, land level changes, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 19 to 23 February 2013 ITST covered 30 locations on 4 Islands: Ndendo (Santa Cruz), Tomotu Noi (Lord Howe), Nea Tomotu (Trevanion, Malo) and Tinakula. The reconnaissance completely circling Ndendo and Tinakula logged 240 km by small boat and additionally covered 20 km of Ndendo's hard hit western coastline by vehicle. The collected survey data includes more than 80 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked at Manoputi on Ndendo's densely populated west coast with maximum tsunami height exceeding 11 m and local flow depths above ground exceeding 7 m. A fast tide-like positive amplitude of 1 m was recorded at Lata wharf inside Graciosa Bay on Ndendo Island and misleadingly reported in the media as representative tsunami height. The stark contrast between the field observations on exposed coastlines and the Lata tide gauge recording highlights the importance of rapid tsunami reconnaissance surveys. Inundation distance and damage more than 500 m inland were recorded at Lata airport on Ndendo Island. Landslides were observed on volcanic Tinakula Island and on Ndendo Island. Observations from the 2013 Santa Cruz tsunami are compared against the 2007 and 2010 Solomon Islands tsunamis. The field observations in the Santa Cruz Islands present an important dataset to assess tsunami impact in the near-source region. The tsunami was also recorded at deep-ocean tsunameters and tide gauges throughout the Pacific. These observations allow us to further investigate the physics of tsunami generation caused by the seismic process (or other non-seismic mechanisms). We use numerical model MOST to analyze the large runup and complex impact distribution caused by the Santa Cruz tsunami. Source models obtained using seismic data / tsunami data are carried out to initialize the tsunami model. MOST uses two sets of numerical grids to investigate both the near- and far-field aspects of the tsunami. The basin-scale modeling results are computed using a spatial resolution of 4 arc min (approx. 7,200 m) and compared with measurements at deep-ocean tsunameters. The near-field modeling is carried out using a series of telescoped grids up to a grid resolution of tens of meters to compare with the tsunami runup and flooding extent obtained through the field survey in the Solomon Islands. The modeling results emphasize the contrast between the tsunami impact on the exposed coastline and the sheltered Lata Bay stressing the problematic interpretation of a tsunami in progress based solely on near-source tide-gauge measurements. The team also interviewed eyewitnesses and educated residents about the tsunami hazard in numerous ad hoc presentations and discussions. The combination of ancestral knowledge and recent Solomon Islands wide geohazards education programs triggered an immediate spontaneous self-evacuation containing the death toll in the small evacuation window of few minutes between the end of the ground shaking and the onslaught of the tsunami. Fortunately school children were shown a video on the 1 April 2007 Solomon Islands tsunami 3 months prior to the Santa Cruz event and the headmaster of the school at Venga evacuated the later flooded school already during a foreshock. On Tomotu Noi Island at Bamoi the residents evacuated inland towards a crocodile infested lake, which was not reached by the tsunami inundation. Community-based education and awareness programs are particularly essential to help save lives in locales at risk from near-source tsunamis.

Tsunamis triggered by the 12 January 2010 Earthquake in Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Hillaire, J. V.; Molière, E.; Mohammed, F.; Wei, Y.

2010-12-01

On 12 January 2010 a magnitude Mw 7.0 earthquake occurred 25 km west-southwest of Haiti’s Capital of Port-au-Prince, which resulted in more than 230,000 fatalities. In addition tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake caused at least 3 fatalities at Petit Paradis. Unfortunately, the people of Haiti had neither ancestral knowledge nor educational awareness of tsunami hazards despite the 1946 Dominican Republic tsunami at Hispaniola’s northeast coast. In sharp contrast Sri Lankan UN-soldiers on duty at Jacmel self-evacuated given the memory of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, and performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 31 January to 7 February 2010 ITST covered the greater Bay of Port-au-Prince and more than 100 km of Hispaniola’s south coast between Pedernales, Dominican Republic and Jacmel, Haiti. The Hispaniola survey data includes more than 20 runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impacts peaked with maximum flow depths exceeding 3 m both at Petit Paradis inside the Bay of Grand Goâve located 45 km west-southwest of Port-au-Prince and at Jacmel on Haiti’s south coast. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed on Hispaniola and tsunami runup of more than 1 m was still observed at Pedernales in the Dominican Republic. Jacmel, which is near the center of the south coast, represents an unfortunate example of a village and harbor that was located for protection from storm waves but is vulnerable to tsunami waves with runup doubling from the entrance to the head of the bay. Inundation and damage was limited to less than 100 m inland at both Jacmel and Petit Paradis. Differences in wave period were documented between the tsunami waves at Petit Paradis and Jacmel. The Petit Paradis tsunami is attributed to a coastal submarine landslide. Field observations, video recordings, satellite imagery and numerical modelling are presented. The team interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and educated residents about the tsunami hazard. Community-based education and awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from locally generated tsunamis. Petit Paradis landslide scar with tree located 70m offshore

The potential role of real-time geodetic observations in tsunami early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Tsunami warning systems (TWS) have the final goal to launch a reliable alert of an incoming dangerous tsunami to coastal population early enough to allow people to flee from the shore and coastal areas according to some evacuation plans. In the last decade, especially after the catastrophic 2004 Boxing Day tsunami in the Indian Ocean, much attention has been given to filling gaps in the existing TWSs (only covering the Pacific Ocean at that time) and to establishing new TWSs in ocean regions that were uncovered. Typically, TWSs operating today work only on earthquake-induced tsunamis. TWSs estimate quickly earthquake location and size by real-time processing seismic signals; on the basis of some pre-defined "static" procedures (either based on decision matrices or on pre-archived tsunami simulations), assess the tsunami alert level on a large regional scale and issue specific bulletins to a pre-selected recipients audience. Not unfrequently these procedures result in generic alert messages with little value. What usually operative TWSs do not do, is to compute earthquake focal mechanism, to calculate the co-seismic sea-floor displacement, to assess the initial tsunami conditions, to input these data into tsunami simulation models and to compute tsunami propagation up to the threatened coastal districts. This series of steps is considered nowadays too time consuming to provide the required timely alert. An equivalent series of steps could start from the same premises (earthquake focal parameters) and reach the same result (tsunami height at target coastal areas) by replacing the intermediate steps of real-time tsunami simulations with proper selection from a large archive of pre-computed tsunami scenarios. The advantage of real-time simulations and of archived scenarios selection is that estimates are tailored to the specific occurring tsunami and alert can be more detailed (less generic) and appropriate for local needs. Both these procedures are still at an experimental or testing stage and haven't been implemented yet in any standard TWS operations. Nonetheless, this is seen to be the future and the natural TWS evolving enhancement. In this context, improvement of the real-time estimates of tsunamigenic earthquake focal mechanism is of fundamental importance to trigger the appropriate computational chain. Quick discrimination between strike-slip and thrust-fault earthquakes, and equally relevant, quick assessment of co-seismic on-fault slip distribution, are exemplary cases to which a real-time geodetic monitoring system can contribute significantly. Robust inversion of geodetic data can help to reconstruct the sea floor deformation pattern especially if two conditions are met: the source is not too far from network stations and is well covered azimuthally. These two conditions are sometimes hard to satisfy fully, but in certain regions, like the Mediterranean and the Caribbean sea, this is quite possible due to the limited size of the ocean basins. Close cooperation between the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) community, seismologists, tsunami scientists and TWS operators is highly recommended to obtain significant progresses in the quick determination of the earthquake source, which can trigger a timely estimation of the ensuing tsunami and a more reliable and detailed assessment of the tsunami size at the coast.

Parallel simulation of tsunami inundation on a large-scale supercomputer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

2013-12-01

An accurate prediction of tsunami inundation is important for disaster mitigation purposes. One approach is to approximate the tsunami wave source through an instant inversion analysis using real-time observation data (e.g., Tsushima et al., 2009) and then use the resulting wave source data in an instant tsunami inundation simulation. However, a bottleneck of this approach is the large computational cost of the non-linear inundation simulation and the computational power of recent massively parallel supercomputers is helpful to enable faster than real-time execution of a tsunami inundation simulation. Parallel computers have become approximately 1000 times faster in 10 years (www.top500.org), and so it is expected that very fast parallel computers will be more and more prevalent in the near future. Therefore, it is important to investigate how to efficiently conduct a tsunami simulation on parallel computers. In this study, we are targeting very fast tsunami inundation simulations on the K computer, currently the fastest Japanese supercomputer, which has a theoretical peak performance of 11.2 PFLOPS. One computing node of the K computer consists of 1 CPU with 8 cores that share memory, and the nodes are connected through a high-performance torus-mesh network. The K computer is designed for distributed-memory parallel computation, so we have developed a parallel tsunami model. Our model is based on TUNAMI-N2 model of Tohoku University, which is based on a leap-frog finite difference method. A grid nesting scheme is employed to apply high-resolution grids only at the coastal regions. To balance the computation load of each CPU in the parallelization, CPUs are first allocated to each nested layer in proportion to the number of grid points of the nested layer. Using CPUs allocated to each layer, 1-D domain decomposition is performed on each layer. In the parallel computation, three types of communication are necessary: (1) communication to adjacent neighbours for the finite difference calculation, (2) communication between adjacent layers for the calculations to connect each layer, and (3) global communication to obtain the time step which satisfies the CFL condition in the whole domain. A preliminary test on the K computer showed the parallel efficiency on 1024 cores was 57% relative to 64 cores. We estimate that the parallel efficiency will be considerably improved by applying a 2-D domain decomposition instead of the present 1-D domain decomposition in future work. The present parallel tsunami model was applied to the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami. The coarsest resolution layer covers a 758 km × 1155 km region with a 405 m grid spacing. A nesting of five layers was used with the resolution ratio of 1/3 between nested layers. The finest resolution region has 5 m resolution and covers most of the coastal region of Sendai city. To complete 2 hours of simulation time, the serial (non-parallel) computation took approximately 4 days on a workstation. To complete the same simulation on 1024 cores of the K computer, it took 45 minutes which is more than two times faster than real-time. This presentation discusses the updated parallel computational performance and the efficient use of the K computer when considering the characteristics of the tsunami inundation simulation model in relation to the characteristics and capabilities of the K computer.

The TRIDEC Virtual Tsunami Atlas - customized value-added simulation data products for Tsunami Early Warning generated on compute clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, P.; Hammitzsch, M.; Babeyko, A.; Wächter, J.

2012-04-01

The development of new Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) requires the modelling of spatio-temporal spreading of tsunami waves both recorded from past events and hypothetical future cases. The model results are maintained in digital repositories for use in TEWS command and control units for situation assessment once a real tsunami occurs. Thus the simulation results must be absolutely trustworthy, in a sense that the quality of these datasets is assured. This is a prerequisite as solid decision making during a crisis event and the dissemination of dependable warning messages to communities under risk will be based on them. This requires data format validity, but even more the integrity and information value of the content, being a derived value-added product derived from raw tsunami model output. Quality checking of simulation result products can be done in multiple ways, yet the visual verification of both temporal and spatial spreading characteristics for each simulation remains important. The eye of the human observer still remains an unmatched tool for the detection of irregularities. This requires the availability of convenient, human-accessible mappings of each simulation. The improvement of tsunami models necessitates the changes in many variables, including simulation end-parameters. Whenever new improved iterations of the general models or underlying spatial data are evaluated, hundreds to thousands of tsunami model results must be generated for each model iteration, each one having distinct initial parameter settings. The use of a Compute Cluster Environment (CCE) of sufficient size allows the automated generation of all tsunami-results within model iterations in little time. This is a significant improvement to linear processing on dedicated desktop machines or servers. This allows for accelerated/improved visual quality checking iterations, which in turn can provide a positive feedback into the overall model improvement iteratively. An approach to set-up and utilize the CCE has been implemented by the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) funded under the European Union's FP7. TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management. The addressed challenges include the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulations and data fusion tools. Additionally, TRIDEC adopts enhancements of Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) principles in terms of Event Driven Architecture (EDA) design. As a next step the implemented CCE's services to generate derived and customized simulation products are foreseen to be provided via an EDA service for on-demand processing for specific threat-parameters and to accommodate for model improvements.

An observation on the main factor for the high fatalities by the March 11 earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishida, M.; Baba, T.; Ando, M.

2011-12-01

On 11 March 2011, Mw9.0 earthquake occurred in Tohoku district, the northeastern Japan, and caused a large tsunami which affected the greater part of the area. During 115 years prior to this event, large tsunamis have struck the Tohoku region in 1960, 1933 and 1896. Therefore, disaster mitigation efforts have been undertaken in the Tohoku region, such as the construction of incomparably strong breakwaters, the annual practice for tsunami evacuation drill, the preparation of hazard maps, etc. Despite these long-term efforts, ca. 25,000 deaths and missing persons were reported by the National Police Headquarters, Japan. In order to clarify the causes of such high number of the fatalities, we interviewed 120 tsunami survivors in 7 cities mainly in Iwate prefecture in several periods after the earthquake. Since the tsunami arrived more than 20-30 min later after the strong ground shaking stopped and highlands are within about 10 to 20 minutes on foot, residents would have been saved if people had taken an immediate action. We found several major reasons why the residents delayed their evacuation actions as follows: 1. Earthquakes that were forecast for the offshore Tohoku by the governmental committee had been much smaller than the March 11 event. Accordingly, evacuation shelters were located at the lower level than that required for the incoming tsunami; 2. The earthquake magnitude and tsunami height of the first warning issue by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) was significantly smaller than those of the actual events. Majority of local residents thought that breakwaters would protect them. The JMA renewed the earthquake magnitude and tsunami height step by step, but the corrected information did not reach to the local residents because of the blackout of electric power. Consequently, the residents were unable to get the renewed information through TV or radio; 3. Fifty percent of the local residents experienced the 1960 Chile tsunami that significantly smaller than the March 11 tsunami. Most of them had estimated the height and inundation area of the incoming tsunami based on their experience; 4. People had believed that breakwaters would protect the city from the tsunami. But the March 11 tsunami climbed over and destroyed most breakwaters. Focusing on the reliance of the breakwaters that delayed the evacuation of residents, we numerically simulated the tsunami height caused by the March 11 event in Kamaishi-city for three cases; 1. with breakwaters, 2. without breakwaters, 3. with partially collapsed breakwaters. Our preliminary results showed that the tsunami height does not show much difference among the above three cases during about 20 min from the beginning. Detail of the results will be shown in the poster. It is noticeable that the immoderate confidence on breakwaters delayed the timing for the local resident to evacuation, although there are other reasons that influenced their behaviors. Finally we emphasize that educating children at a young age is important and essential to understand the basic mechanism of tsunami generation even if technology could underestimate tsunami heights, the warning systems could fail, and the breakwaters were not sturdy enough.

Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System: a case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulutas, E.; Inan, A.; Annunziato, A.

2012-06-01

This study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010. The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center, combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail, the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was performed in three stages: (1) pre-calculated simulations by using the tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to estimate the alert level; (2) near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts, automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismological data providers; and (3) post-event tsunami calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor) fault mechanism solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS) for this event. The GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second type of calculations is available within 30-40 min after the notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where 431 people died. The post-event calculations indicated medium-high humanitarian impacts.

Preliminary tsunami hazard assessment in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Insua, T. L.; Grilli, A. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Shelby, M. R.; Wang, K.; Gao, D.; Cherniawsky, J. Y.; Harris, J. C.; Heesemann, M.; McLean, S.; Moran, K.

2015-12-01

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC), a not-for-profit initiative by the University of Victoria that operates several cabled ocean observatories, is developing a new generation of ocean observing systems (referred to as Smart Ocean Systems™), involving advanced undersea observation technologies, data networks and analytics. The ONC Tsunami project is a Smart Ocean Systems™ project that addresses the need for a near-field tsunami detection system for the coastal areas of British Columbia. Recent studies indicate that there is a 40-80% probability over the next 50 for a significant tsunami impacting the British Columbia (BC) coast with runups higher than 1.5 m. The NEPTUNE cabled ocean observatory, operated by ONC off of the west coast of British Columbia, could be used to detect near-field tsunami events with existing instrumentation, including seismometers and bottom pressure recorders. As part of this project, new tsunami simulations are underway for the BC coast. Tsunami propagation is being simulated with the FUNWAVE-TVD model, for a suite of new source models representing Cascadia megathrust rupture scenarios. Simulations are performed by one-way coupling in a series of nested model grids (from the source to the BC coast), whose bathymetry was developed based on digital elevation maps (DEMs) of the area, to estimate both tsunami arrival time and coastal runup/inundation for different locations. Besides inundation, maps of additional parameters such as maximum current are being developed, that will aid in tsunami hazard assessment and risk mitigation, as well as developing evacuation plans. We will present initial results of this work for the Port Alberni inlet, in particular Ucluelet, based on new source models developed using the best available data. We will also present a model validation using measurements of the 2011 transpacific Tohoku-oki tsunami recorded in coastal BC by several instruments from various US and Canadian agencies.

Potential technique for improving the survival of victims of tsunamis

PubMed Central

Suga, Hisami; Prochazka, Zdenek; Suzuki, Kojiro; Oguri, Kazumasa; Inoue, Tetsunori

2018-01-01

We investigated a method for surviving tsunamis that involved the use of personal flotation devices (PFDs). In our work, we succeeded in numerically demonstrating that the heads of all the dummies wearing PFDs remained on the surface and were not dragged underwater after the artificial tsunami wave hit them. In contrast, the heads of all the dummies not wearing PFDs were drawn underwater immediately; these dummies were subsequently entrapped in a vortex. The results of our series of experiments are important as a first step to preventing the tragedies caused by tsunamis. PMID:29791490

Tsunami Generation and Propagation by 3D deformable Landslides and Application to Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFall, Brian C.; Fritz, Hermann M.

2014-05-01

Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse account for some of the most catastrophic natural disasters recorded and can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1

Physical Modeling of Tsunamis Generated By 3D Deformable Landslides in Various Scenarios From Fjords to Conical Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.

2013-12-01

Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Two different materials are used to simulate landslides to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1

The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach

PubMed Central

Dall'Osso, F.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Moore, C.; Summerhayes, S.; Withycombe, G.

2014-01-01

Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney. PMID:25492514

The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach.

PubMed

Dall'Osso, F; Dominey-Howes, D; Moore, C; Summerhayes, S; Withycombe, G

2014-12-10

Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney.

The 1755 tsunami propagation in Atlantics and its effects on the French West Indies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelinovsky, E.; Zahibo, N.; Yalciner, A.; Zaitsev, A.; Talipova, T.; Chernov, A.; Insel, I.; Dilmen, D.; Ozer, C.; Nikolkina, I.

2009-04-01

The present study examines the propagation of tsunami waves generated by the 1755 Lisbon earthquake in the Atlantic Ocean and its effects on the coasts of the French West Indies in the Caribbean Sea. Historical data of tsunami manifestation in the French West Indies are briefly reproduced. The mathematical model named NAMI DANCE which solves the shallow-water equations has been applied in the computations. Three possible seismic source alternatives of the tsunami source are selected for 1755 event in the simulations. The results obtained from the simulations demonstrate that the directivity of tsunami energy is divided into two strong beams directed to the southern part of North America (Florida, the Bahamas) and to the northern part of South America (Brazil). The tsunami waves reach the Lesser Antilles in 7 hrs. The computed distribution of tsunami wave height along the coasts of Guadeloupe and Martinique are presented. Calculated maximum of wave amplitudes reached 2 m in Guadeloupe and 1.5 m in Martinique. These results are also in agreement with observed data (1.8 - 3 m). The experience and data obtained in this study show that transatlantic events must also be considered in the tsunami hazard assessment and development of mitigation strategies for the French West Indies.

Towards coupled earthquake dynamic rupture and tsunami simulations: The 2011 Tohoku earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, Percy; van Dinther, Ylona

2016-04-01

The 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake has been recorded with a vast GPS and seismic network given an unprecedented chance to seismologists to unveil complex rupture processes in a mega-thrust event. The seismic stations surrounding the Miyagi regions (MYGH013) show two clear distinct waveforms separated by 40 seconds suggesting two rupture fronts, possibly due to slip reactivation caused by frictional melting and thermal fluid pressurization effects. We created a 3D dynamic rupture model to reproduce this rupture reactivation pattern using SPECFEM3D (Galvez et al, 2014) based on a slip-weakening friction with sudden two sequential stress drops (Galvez et al, 2015) . Our model starts like a M7-8 earthquake breaking dimly the trench, then after 40 seconds a second rupture emerges close to the trench producing additional slip capable to fully break the trench and transforming the earthquake into a megathrust event. The seismograms agree roughly with seismic records along the coast of Japan. The resulting sea floor displacements are in agreement with 1Hz GPS displacements (GEONET). The simulated sea floor displacement reaches 8-10 meters of uplift close to the trench, which may be the cause of such a devastating tsunami followed by the Tohoku earthquake. To investigate the impact of such a huge uplift, we ran tsunami simulations with the slip reactivation model and plug the sea floor displacements into GeoClaw (Finite element code for tsunami simulations, George and LeVeque, 2006). Our recent results compare well with the water height at the tsunami DART buoys 21401, 21413, 21418 and 21419 and show the potential using fully dynamic rupture results for tsunami studies for earthquake-tsunami scenarios.

Mathematical simulation of boulder dislodgement by high-energy marine flows in the western coast of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canelas, Ricardo; Oliveira, Maria; Crespo, Alejandro; Neves, Ramiro; Costa, Pedro; Freitas, Conceição; Andrade, César; Ferreira, Rui

2014-05-01

The study of coastal boulder deposits related with marine abrupt inundation events has been addressed by several authors using conventional numerical solutions that simulate particle transport by storm and tsunami, sometimes with contradictory results (Nandasena et al. 2011, Kain et al. 2012). The biggest challenge has been the differentiation of the events (storm or tsunami), and the reconstruction of wave parameters (e.g. wave height, length, direction) responsible for the entrainment and transport of these megaclasts. In this study we employ an inverse-problem strategy to determine the cause of dislodgement of megaclasts and to explain the pattern of deposition found in some locations of the Portuguese western coast, well above maximum records of sea level. It is envisaged that the causes are either flows originated by wave breaking, typically associated to storms, which would impart large momentum in a short time interval (herein impulsive motion), or long waves such as a tsunamis, that would transport the clasts in a mode analogous to bedload (herein sustained motion). The geometry of the problem is idealized but represents the key features of overhanging layers related with fractures, bedding and differential erosion of sub-horizontal layers. In plan view, concave and convex coastline shapes are testes to assess the influence of flow concentration. These geometrical features are representative of the western Portuguese coast. The fluid-solid model solves numerically the Navier-Stokes equations for the liquid phase and Newton's motion equations for solid bodies. The discretization of both fluid and solids is performed with Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH). The model is based DualSPHyics code (www.dual.sphysics.org) and represents an effort to avoid different discretization techniques for different phases in motion. This approach to boulder transport demonstrates that the ability of high-energy flow events to entrain and transport large particles largely depends on fluid velocity, flow characteristic wavelength and local geometry. The results of the model allow for a classification of the deposition patterns associated with the combinations of hydrodynamic parameters characteristic of short (storms) and long waves (tsunamis). Ackownledgements: Project RECI/ECM-HID/0371/2012, funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), has partially supported this work. References Nandasena, N.A.K., Paris, R. e Tanaka, N., 2011. Reassessment of hydrodynamic equations: Minimum flow velocity to initaite boulder transport by high energy events (storms, tsunamis). Marine Geology, 281: 70-84. Kain, C.L; Gomez, C.; Moghaddam, A.E. (2012) Comment on 'Reassessment of hydrodynamic equations: Minimum flow velocity to initiate boulder transport by high energy events (storms, tsunamis), by N.A.K. Nandasena, R. Paris and N. Tanaka [Marine Geology 281, 70-84], Marine Geology, Volumes 319-322, 1, pp. 75-76, ISSN 0025-3227, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2011.08.008.

Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

PubMed

Paris, Raphaël

2015-10-28

Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

Tsunami hazard assessment along the French Mediterranean coast : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the ALDES project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hébert, H.

2012-04-01

The catastrophic 2004 tsunami drew the international community's attention to tsunami risk in all basins where tsunamis occurred but no warning system exists. Consequently, under the coordination of UNESCO, France decided to create a regional center, called CENALT, for the north-east Atlantic and the western Mediterranean. This warning system, which should be operational by 2012, is set up by the CEA in collaboration with the SHOM and the CNRS. The French authorities are in charge of the top-down alert system including the local alert dissemination. In order to prepare the appropriate means and measures, they initiated the ALDES (Alerte Descendante) project to which the CEA also contributes. It aims at examining along the French Mediterranean coast the tsunami risk related to earthquakes and landslides. In addition to the evaluation at regional scale, it includes the detailed studies of 3 selected sites; the local alert system will be designed for one of them : the French Riviera. In this project, our main task at CEA consists in assessing tsunami hazard related to seismic sources using numerical modeling. Past tsunamis have affected the west Mediterranean coast but are too few and poorly documented to provide a suitable database. Thus, a synthesis of earthquakes representative of the tsunamigenic seismic activity and prone to induce the largest impact to the French coast is performed based on historical data, seismotectonics and first order models. The North Africa Margin, the Ligurian and the South Tyrrhenian Seas are considered as the main tsunamigenic zones. In order to forecast the most important plausible effects, the magnitudes are estimated by enhancing to some extent the largest known values. Our hazard estimation is based on the simulation of the induced tsunamis scenarios performed with the CEA code. The 3 sites have been chosen according to the regional hazard studies, coastal typology elements and the appropriate DTMs (Digital Terrain Models). The ALDES project allows the SHOM and the IGN to conduct high resolution data acquisition in the Litto3D framework for 2 sites, one west of the Gulf of Lion (3 m) and one west of the French Riviera (3 m). DTMs of the third site, centered on the Antibes Cape, are built using pre-existent data sets with lesser resolution (10 m). Then, detailed models for the selected sites are performed based on high resolution bathymetric and topographic data; they provide estimations of water heights and currents, inundation distances and run-up elevations. It points out the most exposed places and morphologic features prone to amplify potential waves and to generate significant coastal effects. Our set of simulations gives an evaluation of the expected maximum impact distribution and highlights places, such as specific beaches or harbors, where mitigation measures must be given priority.

NOAA Propagation Database Value in Tsunami Forecast Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eble, M. C.; Wright, L. M.

2016-02-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) has developed a tsunami forecasting capability that combines a graphical user interface with data ingestion and numerical models to produce estimates of tsunami wave arrival times, amplitudes, current or water flow rates, and flooding at specific coastal communities. The capability integrates several key components: deep-ocean observations of tsunamis in real-time, a basin-wide pre-computed propagation database of water level and flow velocities based on potential pre-defined seismic unit sources, an inversion or fitting algorithm to refine the tsunami source based on the observations during an event, and tsunami forecast models. As tsunami waves propagate across the ocean, observations from the deep ocean are automatically ingested into the application in real-time to better define the source of the tsunami itself. Since passage of tsunami waves over a deep ocean reporting site is not immediate, we explore the value of the NOAA propagation database in providing placeholder forecasts in advance of deep ocean observations. The propagation database consists of water elevations and flow velocities pre-computed for 50 x 100 [km] unit sources in a continuous series along all known ocean subduction zones. The 2011 Japan Tohoku tsunami is presented as the case study

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: Successes in Tsunami Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R. I.

2012-12-01

Formed in 1995 by Congressional Action, the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program (NTHMP) provides the framework for tsunami preparedness activities in the United States. The Program consists of the 28 U.S. coastal states, territories, and commonwealths (STCs), as well as three Federal agencies: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Since its inception, the NTHMP has advanced tsunami preparedness in the United States through accomplishments in many areas of tsunami preparedness: - Coordination and funding of tsunami hazard analysis and preparedness activities in STCs; - Development and execution of a coordinated plan to address education and outreach activities (materials, signage, and guides) within its membership; - Lead the effort to assist communities in meeting National Weather Service (NWS) TsunamiReady guidelines through development of evacuation maps and other planning activities; - Determination of tsunami hazard zones in most highly threatened coastal communities throughout the country by detailed tsunami inundation studies; - Development of a benchmarking procedure for numerical tsunami models to ensure models used in the inundation studies meet consistent, NOAA standards; - Creation of a national tsunami exercise framework to test tsunami warning system response; - Funding community tsunami warning dissemination and reception systems such as sirens and NOAA Weather Radios; and, - Providing guidance to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers regarding warning dissemination and content. NTHMP activities have advanced the state of preparedness of United States coastal communities, and have helped save lives and property during recent tsunamis. Program successes as well as future plans, including maritime preparedness, are discussed.

A Comparison Study of Two Numerical Tsunami Forecasting Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenslade, Diana J. M.; Titov, Vasily V.

2008-12-01

This paper presents a comparison of two tsunami forecasting systems: the NOAA/PMEL system (SIFT) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology system (T1). Both of these systems are based on a tsunami scenario database and both use the same numerical model. However, there are some major differences in the way in which the scenarios are constructed and in the implementation of the systems. Two tsunami events are considered here: Tonga 2006 and Sumatra 2007. The results show that there are some differences in the distribution of maximum wave amplitude, particularly for the Tonga event, however both systems compare well to the available tsunameter observations. To assess differences in the forecasts for coastal amplitude predictions, the offshore forecast results from both systems were used as boundary conditions for a high-resolution model for Hilo, Hawaii. The minor differences seen between the two systems in deep water become considerably smaller at the tide gauge and both systems compare very well with the observations.

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for the 2014 Chilean earthquake. Results show that leading wave measurements fall within the tsunami sample space. At later times, however, there are mismatches between measured data and the simulated results, suggesting that other sources of uncertainty are as relevant as the uncertainty of the studied earthquake characteristics.

Tsunami in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, Evgueni; Medvedev, Igor; Ivaschenko, Alexey

2017-04-01

The severity of the climate and sparsely populated coastal regions are the reason why the Russian part of the Arctic Ocean belongs to the least studied areas of the World Ocean. In the same time intensive economic development of the Arctic region, specifically oil and gas industry, require studies of potential thread natural disasters that can cause environmental and technical damage of the coastal and maritime infrastructure of energy industry complex (FEC). Despite the fact that the seismic activity in the Arctic can be attributed to a moderate level, we cannot exclude the occurrence of destructive tsunami waves, directly threatening the FEC. According to the IAEA requirements, in the construction of nuclear power plants it is necessary to take into account the impact of all natural disasters with frequency more than 10-5 per year. Planned accommodation in the polar regions of the Russian floating nuclear power plants certainly requires an adequate risk assessment of the tsunami hazard in the areas of their location. Develop the concept of tsunami hazard assessment would be based on the numerical simulation of different scenarios in which reproduced the hypothetical seismic sources and generated tsunamis. The analysis of available geological, geophysical and seismological data for the period of instrumental observations (1918-2015) shows that the highest earthquake potential within the Arctic region is associated with the underwater Mid-Arctic zone of ocean bottom spreading (interplate boundary between Eurasia and North American plates) as well as with some areas of continental slope within the marginal seas. For the Arctic coast of Russia and the adjacent shelf area, the greatest tsunami danger of seismotectonic origin comes from the earthquakes occurring in the underwater Gakkel Ridge zone, the north-eastern part of the Mid-Arctic zone. In this area, one may expect earthquakes of magnitude Mw ˜ 6.5-7.0 at a rate of 10-2 per year and of magnitude Mw ˜ 7.5 at a rate of 10-3 per year. Additional tsunami threat might arise from rare earthquake occurrences within the continental slope of deep-sea basin of the Arctic Ocean and near the coast of the continent, where high probability of triggering submarine landslides exists that can generate even more dangerous tsunamis than those of seismotectonic origin. The most reliable information about the manifestation of the tsunami in the Arctic is associated with submarine landslide Storegga located on the continental slope of the Norwegian Sea and collapsed 8,200 years ago. Traces of sediment left behind by the tsunami waves on the coast, show that the maximum vertical tsunami runup could reach 20 meters. Factors causing the potential tsunami thread of landslides in Russian Arctic are sedimentation processes that can be associated with the formation of the alluvial fans of the great Siberian rivers Ob, Yenisei and Lena.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume III"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2018-04-01

Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume III”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2018-01-01

Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in the State of Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Church, Alyssia; Frazier, Tim; Yarnal, Brent

2007-01-01

Hawai`i has experienced numerous destructive tsunamis and the potential for future events threatens the safety and economic well being of its coastal communities. Although tsunami-evacuation zones have been delineated, what is in these areas and how communities have chosen to develop within them has not been documented. A community-level vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to describe tsunami-prone landscapes on the Hawaiian coast and to document variations in land cover, demographics, economic assets, and critical facilities among 65 communities. Results indicate that the Hawai`i tsunami-evacuation zone contains approximately 56,678 residents (five percent of the total population), 67,113 employees (eleven percent of the State labor force), and 50,174 average daily visitors to hotels (44 percent of the State total). With regards to economic conditions, the tsunami-evacuation zone contains 5,779 businesses that generate $10.1 billion in annual sales volume (both eleven percent of State totals), and tax parcels with a combined total value of $36.1 billion (18 percent of the State total). Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the tsunami-evacuation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, child-day-care facilities and schools), public venues (for example, religious organizations and parks) and critical facilities (for example, fire stations). The residential population in tsunami-prone areas is racially diverse, with most residents identifying themselves as White, Asian, or Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, either alone or in combination with one or more race. Fifty-one percent of the households in the tsunami-evacuation zone are renter occupied. The employee population in the tsunami-evacuation zone is largely in accommodation and food services, health services, and retail-trade sectors. Results indicate that community vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies considerably among 65 coastal communities in Hawai`i. Honolulu has the highest exposure, Punalu`u has the highest sensitivity, and Ka`anapali has the highest combination of exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis. Results also indicate that the level of community-asset exposure to tsunamis is not determined by the amount of a community's land that is in tsunami-evacuation zones. Community sensitivity, however, is related to the percentage of a community's land that is in the tsunami-prone areas. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Hawai`i and help identify future preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery planning needs within coastal communities and economic sectors of the State of Hawai`i.

Fault Slip Distribution and Optimum Sea Surface Displacement of the 2017 Tehuantepec Earthquake in Mexico (Mw 8.2) Estimated from Tsunami Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Satake, K.; Mulia, I. E.

2017-12-01

An intraplate normal fault earthquake (Mw 8.2) occurred on 8 September 2017 in the Tehuantepec seismic gap of the Middle America Trench. The submarine earthquake generated a tsunami which was recorded by coastal tide gauges and offshore DART buoys. We used the tsunami waveforms recorded at 16 stations to estimate the fault slip distribution and an optimum sea surface displacement of the earthquake. A steep fault dipping to the northeast with strike of 315°, dip of 73°and rake of -96° based on the USGS W-phase moment tensor solution was assumed for the slip inversion. To independently estimate the sea surface displacement without assuming earthquake fault parameters, we used the B-spline function for the unit sources. The distribution of the unit sources was optimized by a Genetic Algorithm - Pattern Search (GA-PS) method. Tsunami waveform inversion resolves a spatially compact region of large slip (4-10 m) with a dimension of 100 km along the strike and 80 km along the dip in the depth range between 40 km and 110 km. The seismic moment calculated from the fault slip distribution with assumed rigidity of 6 × 1010 Nm-2 is 2.46 × 1021 Nm (Mw 8.2). The optimum displacement model suggests that the sea surface was uplifted up to 0.5 m and subsided down to -0.8 m. The deep location of large fault slip may be the cause of such small sea surface displacements. The simulated tsunami waveforms from the optimum sea surface displacement can reproduce the observations better than those from fault slip distribution; the normalized root mean square misfit for the sea surface displacement is 0.89, while that for the fault slip distribution is 1.04. We simulated the tsunami propagation using the optimum sea surface displacement model. Large tsunami amplitudes up to 2.5 m were predicted to occur inside and around a lagoon located between Salina Cruz and Puerto Chiapas. Figure 1. a) Sea surface displacement for the 2017 Tehuantepec earthquake estimated by tsunami waveforms. b) Map of simulated maximum tsunami amplitude and comparison between observed (blue circles) and simulated (red circles) tsunami maximum amplitude along the coast.

Contribution to the top-down alert system associated with the upcoming French tsunami warning center (CENALT): tsunami hazard assessment along the French Mediterranean coast for the ALDES project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loevenbruck, A.; Quentel, E.; Hebert, H.

2011-12-01

The catastrophic 2004 tsunami drew the international community's attention to tsunami risk in all basins where tsunamis occurred but no warning system exists. Consequently, under the coordination of UNESCO, France decided to create a regional center, called CENALT, for the north-east Atlantic and the western Mediterranean. This warning system, which should be operational by 2012, is set up by the CEA in collaboration with the SHOM and the CNRS. The French authorities are in charge of the top-down alert system including the local alert dissemination. In order to prepare the appropriate means and measures, they initiated the ALDES (Alerte Descendante) project to which the CEA also contributes. It aims at examining along the French Mediterranean coast the tsunami risk related to earthquakes and landslides. In addition to the evaluation at regional scale, it includes the detailed studies of 3 selected sites; the local alert system will be designed for one of them. In this project, our main task at CEA consists in assessing tsunami hazard related to seismic sources using numerical modeling. Tsunamis have already affected the west Mediterranean coast; however past events are too few and poorly documented to provide a suitable database. Thus, a synthesis of earthquakes representative of the tsunamigenic seismic activity and prone to induce the largest impact to the French coast is performed based on historical data, seismotectonics and first order models. The North Africa Margin, the Ligurian and the South Tyrrhenian Seas are considered as the main tsunamigenic zones. In order to forecast the most important plausible effects, the magnitudes are estimated by enhancing to some extent the largest known values. Our hazard estimation is based on the simulation of the induced tsunamis scenarios performed with the CEA code. Models of propagation in the basin and off the French coast allow evaluating the potential threat at regional scale in terms of sources location and highlight the most exposed areas. The 3 sites have been chosen according to the regional hazard studies, coastal typology elements and the availability of appropriate DTMs (Digital Terrain Models). Indeed, the propagation models accuracy relies on the resolution of the input bathymetry, especially in shallow water areas, and the inundation estimation also depends on the precision of the coastal topographic data. The ALDES project allows the SHOM and the IGN to conduct high resolution data acquisition in the Litto3D framework for 2 sites, one west of the Gulf of Lion and one west of the French Riviera. DTMs of the third site, centered on the Antibes Cape, are built using pre-existent data sets with lesser resolution. Detailed modeling of the tsunamis scenarios provides refined estimation of the potential impacts; it points out the most exposed places and morphologic features prone to amplify potential waves and to generate significant coastal effects. Expected water heights and currents, inundation distances and run-up elevations are assessed. Our set of simulations gives an evaluation of the expected maximum impact distribution and highlights places, such as specific beaches or harbors, where mitigation measures must be given priority.

New Theory for Tsunami Propagation and Estimation of Tsunami Source Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mindlin, I. M.

2007-12-01

In numerical studies based on the shallow water equations for tsunami propagation, vertical accelerations and velocities within the sea water are neglected, so a tsunami is usually supposed to be produced by an initial free surface displacement in the initially still sea. In the present work, new theory for tsunami propagation across the deep sea is discussed, that accounts for the vertical accelerations and velocities. The theory is based on the solutions for the water surface displacement obtained in [Mindlin I.M. Integrodifferential equations in dynamics of a heavy layered liquid. Moscow: Nauka*Fizmatlit, 1996 (Russian)]. The solutions are valid when horizontal dimensions of the initially disturbed area in the sea surface are much larger than the vertical displacement of the surface, which applies to the earthquake tsunamis. It is shown that any tsunami is a combination of specific basic waves found analytically (not superposition: the waves are nonlinear), and consequently, the tsunami source (i.e., the initially disturbed body of water) can be described by the numerable set of the parameters involved in the combination. Thus the problem of theoretical reconstruction of a tsunami source is reduced to the problem of estimation of the parameters. The tsunami source can be modelled approximately with the use of a finite number of the parameters. Two-parametric model is discussed thoroughly. A method is developed for estimation of the model's parameters using the arrival times of the tsunami at certain locations, the maximum wave-heights obtained from tide gauge records at the locations, and the distances between the earthquake's epicentre and each of the locations. In order to evaluate the practical use of the theory, four tsunamis of different magnitude occurred in Japan are considered. For each of the tsunamis, the tsunami energy (E below), the duration of the tsunami source formation T, the maximum water elevation in the wave originating area H, mean radius of the area R, and the average magnitude of the sea surface displacement at the margin of the wave originating area h are estimated using tide gauges records. The results are compared (and, in the author's opinion, are in line) with the estimates known in the literature. Compared to the methods employed in the literature, there is no need to use bathymetry (and, consequently, refraction diagrams) for the estimations. The present paper follows closely earlier works [Mindlin I.M., 1996; Mindlin I.M. J. Appl. Math. Phys. (ZAMP), 2004, vol.55, pp. 781-799] and adds to their theoretical results. Example. The Hiuganada earthquake of 1968, April, 1, 9h 42m JST. A tsunami of moderate size arrived at the coast of the south-western part of Shikoku and the eastern part of Kyushu, Japan. Tsunami parameters listed above are estimated with the theory being discussed for two models of tsunami generation: (a) by initial free surface displacement (the case for numerical studies): E=1.91· 1012J, R=22km, h=17.2cm; and (b) by a sudden change in the velocity field of initially still water: E=8.78· 1012J, R=20.4km, h=9.2cm. These values are in line with known estimates [Soloviev S.L., Go Ch.N. Catalogue of tsunami in the West of Pacific Ocean. Moscow, 1974]: E=1.3· 1013J (attributed to Hatori), E=(1.4 - 2.2)· 1012J (attributed to Aida), R=21.2km, h=20cm [Hatory T., Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Tokyo Univ., 1969, vol. 47, pp. 55-63]. Also, estimates are obtained for the values that could not be found based on shallow water wave theory: (a) H=3.43m and (b) H=1.38m, T=16.4sec.

Tsunami-Induced Nearshore Hydrodynamic Modeling using a 3D VOF Method: A Gulf of Mexico Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kian, R.; Horrillo, J. J.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

Long-term morphology changes can be interrupted by extreme events such as hurricanes and tsunamis. In particular, the impact of tsunamis on coastal erosion and accretion patterns is presently not well understood. In order to understand the sediment movement during coastal tsunami impact a numerical sediment transport model is added to a 3D VOF model. This model allows for spatially varying bottom sediment characteristics and entails functions for entrainment, bedload, and suspended load transport. As a case study, a Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastal study site is selected to investigate the effect of a landslide-tsunami on the coastal morphology. The GOM is recognized as a vast and productive body of water with great ecologic and economic value. The morphodynamic response of the nearshore environment to the tsunami hydrodynamic forcing is influenced by many factors including bathymetry, topography, tsunami wave and current magnitude, and the characteristics of the local bottom substrate. The 3D model addition can account for all these factors. Finally, necessary strategies for reduction of the potential tsunami impact and management of the morphological changes are discussed.

Disaster risk reduction policies and regulations in Aceh after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syamsidik; Rusydy, I.; Arief, S.; Munadi, K.; Melianda, E.

2017-02-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that struck most of coastal cities in Aceh has motivated a numerous changes in the world of disaster risk reduction including to the policies and regulations at local level in Aceh. This paper is aimed at elaborating the changes of policies and regulations in Aceh captured and monitored during 12-year of the tsunami recovery process. A set of questionnaires were distributed to about 245 respondents in Aceh to represent government officials at 6 districts in Aceh. The districts were severely damaged due to the 2004 tsunami. Four aspects were investigated during this research, namely tsunami evacuation mechanism and infrastructures, disaster risk map, disaster data accessibility, perceptions on tsunami risks, and development of tsunami early warning at local level in Aceh. This research found that the spatial planning in several districts in Aceh have adopted tsunami mitigation although they were only significant in terms of land-use planning within several hundreds meter from the coastline. Perceptions of the government officials toward all investigated aspects were relatively good. One concern was found at coordination among disaster stakeholders in Aceh.

Tsunami Waves Joint Inversion Using Tsunami Inundation, Tsunami Deposits Distribution and Marine-Terrestrial Sediment Signal in Tsunami Deposit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, H.; WANG, J.

2017-12-01

Population living close to coastlines is increasing, which creates higher risks due to coastal hazards, such as the tsunami. However, the generation of a tsunami is not fully understood yet, especially for paleo-tsunami. Tsunami deposits are one of the concrete evidence in the geological record which we can apply for studying paleo-tsunami. The understanding of tsunami deposits has significantly improved over the last decades. There are many inversion models (e.g. TsuSedMod, TSUFLIND, and TSUFLIND-EnKF) to study the overland-flow characteristics based on tsunami deposits. However, none of them tries to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave characteristics (wave form, wave height, and length) based on tsunami deposits. Here we present a state-of-the-art inverse approach to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave based on the tsunami inundation data, the spatial distribution of tsunami deposits and Marine-terrestrial sediment signal in the tsunami deposits. Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Method is used for assimilating both sediment transport simulations and the field observation data. While more computationally expensive, the EnKF approach potentially provides more accurate reconstructions for tsunami waveform. In addition to the improvement of inversion results, the ensemble-based method can also quantify the uncertainties of the results. Meanwhile, joint inversion improves the resolution of tsunami waves compared with inversions using any single data type. The method will be tested by field survey data and gauge data from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami on Sendai plain area.

Tsunami Research driven by Survivor Observations: Sumatra 2004, Tohoku 2011 and the Lituya Bay Landslide (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Hermann M.

2014-05-01

The 10th anniversary of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami recalls the advent of tsunami video recordings by eyewitnesses. The tsunami of December 26, 2004 severely affected Banda Aceh along the North tip of Sumatra (Indonesia) at a distance of 250 km from the epicenter of the Magnitude 9.0 earthquake. The tsunami flow velocity analysis focused on two survivor videos recorded within Banda Aceh more than 3km from the open ocean. The exact locations of the tsunami eyewitness video recordings were revisited to record camera calibration ground control points. The motion of the camera during the recordings was determined. The individual video images were rectified with a direct linear transformation (DLT). Finally a cross-correlation based particle image velocimetry (PIV) analysis was applied to the rectified video images to determine instantaneous tsunami flow velocity fields. The measured overland tsunami flow velocities were within the range of 2 to 5 m/s in downtown Banda Aceh, Indonesia. The March 11, 2011, magnitude Mw 9.0 earthquake off the coast of Japan caused catastrophic damage and loss of life. Fortunately many survivors at evacuation sites recorded countless tsunami videos with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage. Numerous tsunami reconnaissance trips were conducted in Japan. This report focuses on the surveys at selected tsunami eyewitness video recording locations along Japan's Sanriku coast and the subsequent tsunami video image analysis. Locations with high quality survivor videos were visited, eyewitnesses interviewed and detailed site topography scanned with a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS). The analysis of the tsunami videos followed the four step procedure developed for the analysis of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami videos at Banda Aceh. Tsunami currents up to 11 m/s were measured in Kesennuma Bay making navigation impossible. Further tsunami height and runup hydrographs are derived from the videos to discuss the complex effects of coastal structures on inundation and outflow flow velocities. Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events. On July 10, 1958, an earthquake Mw 8.3 along the Fairweather fault triggered a major subaerial landslide into Gilbert Inlet at the head of Lituya Bay on the south coast of Alaska. The landslide impacted the water at high speed generating a giant tsunami and the highest wave runup in recorded history. This event was observed by eyewitnesses on board the sole surviving fishing boat, which managed to ride the tsunami. The mega-tsunami runup to an elevation of 524 m caused total forest destruction and erosion down to bedrock on a spur ridge in direct prolongation of the slide axis. A cross-section of Gilbert Inlet was rebuilt in a two dimensional physical laboratory model. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) provided instantaneous velocity vector fields of decisive initial phase with landslide impact and wave generation as well as the runup on the headland. Three dimensional source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled in the NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU). The measured landslide and tsunami data serve to validate and advance numerical landslide tsunami models. This lecture encompasses multi-hazard aspects and implications of recent tsunami and cyclonic events around the world such as the November 2013 Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) in the Philippines.

Preparation of Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue and Tsunami Hazard Curves in Marmara Sea using Monte Carlo Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayraktar, Başak; Özer Sözdinler, Ceren; Necmioǧlu, Öcal; Meral Özel, Nurcan

2017-04-01

The Marmara Sea and its surrounding is one of the most populated areas in Turkey. Many densely populated cities, such as megacity Istanbul with a population of more than 14 million, a great number of industrial facilities in largest capacity and potential, refineries, ports and harbors are located along the coasts of Marmara Sea. The region is highly seismically active. There has been a wide range of studies in this region regarding the fault mechanisms, seismic activities, earthquakes and triggered tsunamis in the Sea of Marmara. The historical documents reveal that the region has been experienced many earthquakes and tsunamis in the past. According to Altinok et al. (2011), 35 tsunami events happened in Marmara Sea between BC 330 and 1999. As earthquakes are expected in Marmara Sea with the break of segments of North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the future, the region should be investigated in terms of the possibility of tsunamis by the occurrence of earthquakes in specific return periods. This study aims to make probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis in Marmara Sea. For this purpose, the possible sources of tsunami scenarios are specified by compiling the earthquake catalogues, historical records and scientific studies conducted in the region. After compiling all this data, a synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogue are prepared using Monte Carlo simulations. For specific return periods, the possible epicenters, rupture lengths, widths and displacements are determined with Monte Carlo simulations assuming the angles of fault segments as deterministic. For each earthquake of synthetic catalogue, the tsunami wave heights will be calculated at specific locations along Marmara Sea. As a further objective, this study will determine the tsunami hazard curves for specific locations in Marmara Sea including the tsunami wave heights and their probability of exceedance. This work is supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7). The authors also would like to acknowledge Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik and Prof. Dr. Sinan Akkar for their valuable feedback and guidance throughout this study.

Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian transport of large debris by tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conde, Daniel A. S.; Ferreira, Rui M. L.; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

2016-04-01

Tsunamis are notorious for the large disruption they can cause on coastal environments, not only due to the imparted momentum of the incoming wave but also due to its capacity to transport large quantities of solid debris, either from natural or human-made sources, over great distances. A 2DH numerical model under development at CERIS-IST (Ferreira et al., 2009; Conde, 2013) - STAV2D - capable of simulating solid transport in both Eulerian and Lagrangian paradigms will be used to assess the relevance of Lagrangian-Eulerian coupling when modelling the transport of solid debris by tsunamis. The model has been previously validated and applied to tsunami scenarios (Conde, 2013), being well-suited for overland tsunami propagation and capable of handling morphodynamic changes in estuaries and seashores. The discretization scheme is an explicit Finite Volume technique employing flux-vector splitting and a reviewed Roe-Riemann solver. Source term formulations are employed in a semi-implicit way, including the two-way coupling of the Lagrangian and Eulerian solvers by means of conservative mass and momentum transfers between fluid and solid phases. The model was applied to Sines Port, a major commercial port in Portugal, where two tsunamigenic scenarios are considered: an 8.5 Mw scenario, consistent with the Great Lisbon Earthquake and Tsunami of the 1st November 1755 (Baptista, 2009), and an hypothetical 9.5 Mw worst-case scenario based on the same historical event. Open-ocean propagation of these scenarios were simulated with GeoClaw model from ClawPack (Leveque, 2011). Following previous efforts on the modelling of debris transport by tsunamis in seaports (Conde, 2015), this work discusses the sensitivity of the obtained results with respect to the phenomenological detail of the employed Eulerian-Lagrangian formulation and the resolution of the mesh used in the Eulerian solver. The results have shown that the fluid to debris mass ratio is the key parameter regarding the conservativeness of the model. This way, in highly resolved meshes and high quantities of debris, the model approaches full conservativeness only if the two-way coupling feature is present, an effect that is attenuated in coarse meshes or with small debris quantities. Aknownledgements: This work was partially funded by FEDER, program COMPETE, and by national funds through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) with project RECI/ECM-HID/0371/2012. References: Baptista M.A. & Miranda, J.M. (2009) Revision of the Portuguese catalog of tsunamis. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 25-42. Conde, D. A. S.; Baptista, M. A. V.; Sousa Oliveira, C. & Ferreira, R. M. L. (2013) A shallow-flow model for the propagation of tsunamis over complex geometries and mobile beds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2533-2542. Conde, D. A. S.; Baptista, M. A. V.; Sousa Oliveira, C. & Ferreira, R. M. L. (2015) Mathematical modelling of tsunami impacts on critical infrastructures: exposure and severity associated with debris transport at Sines port. EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria. Ferreira, R. M. L.; Franca, M. J.; Leal, J. G. & Cardoso, A. H. (2009) Mathematical modelling of shallow flows: Closure models drawn from grain-scale mechanics of sediment transport and flow hydrodynamics, Can. J. Civil. Eng., 36, 1604-1621. LeVeque, R. J., George, D. L., & Berger, M. J. (2011) Tsunami modelling with adaptively refined finite volume methods, Acta Numerica, pp. 211-289.

New Methodology for Computing Subaerial Landslide-Tsunamis: Application to the 2015 Tyndall Glacier Landslide, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, D. L.; Iverson, R. M.; Cannon, C. M.

2016-12-01

Landslide-generated tsunamis pose significant hazards to coastal communities and infrastructure, but developing models to assess these hazards presents challenges beyond those confronted when modeling seismically generated tsunamis. We present a new methodology in which our depth-averaged two-phase model D-Claw (Proc. Roy. Soc. A, 2014, doi: 10.1098/rspa.2013.0819 and doi:10.1098/rspa.2013.0820) is used to simulate all stages of landslide dynamics and subsequent tsunami generation and propagation. D-Claw was developed to simulate landslides and debris-flows, but if granular solids are absent, then the D-Claw equations reduce to the shallow-water equations commonly used to model tsunamis. Because the model describes the evolution of solid and fluid volume fractions, it treats both landslides and tsunamis as special cases of a more general class of phenomena, and the landslide and tsunami can be simulated as a single-layer continuum with spatially and temporally evolving solid-grain concentrations. This seamless approach accommodates wave generation via mass displacement and longitudinal momentum transfer, the dominant mechanisms producing impulse waves when large subaerial landslides impact relatively shallow bodies of water. To test our methodology, we used D-Claw to model a large subaerial landslide and resulting tsunami that occurred on October, 17, 2015, in Taan Fjord near the terminus of Tyndall Glacier, Alaska. The estimated landslide volume derived from radiated long-period seismicity (C. Stark (2015), Abstract EP51D-08, AGU Fall Meeting) was about 70-80 million cubic meters. Guided by satellite imagery and this volume estimate, we inferred an approximate landslide basal slip surface, and we used material property values identical to those used in our previous modeling of the 2014 Oso, Washington, landslide. With these inputs the modeled tsunami inundation patterns on shorelines compare well with observations derived from satellite imagery.

Preliminary investigation of the hazard faced by Western Australia from tsunami generated along the Sunda Arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burbidge, D.; Cummins, P. R.

2005-12-01

Since the Boxing Day tsunami various countries surrounding the Indian Ocean have been investigating the potential hazard from trans-Indian Ocean tsunami generated along the Sunda Arc, south of Indonesia. This study presents some preliminary estimates of the tsunami hazard faced by Western Australia from tsunami generated along the Arc. To estimate the hazard, a suite of tsunami spaced evenly along the subduction zone to the south of Indonesia were numerically modelled. Offshore wave heights from tsunami generated in this region are significantly higher along northwestern part of the Western Australian coast from Exmouth to the Kimberly than they are along the rest of the coast south of Exmouth. Due to the offshore bathymetry, the area around Onslow in particular may face a higher tsunami than other areas the West Australian coast. Earthquakes between Java and Timor are likely to produce the greatest hazard to northwest WA. Earthquakes off Sumatra are likely the main source of tsunami hazard to locations south of Exmouth, however the hazard here is likely to be lower than that along the north western part of the West Australian coast. Tsunami generated by other sources (eg large intra-plate events, volcanoes, landslides and asteroids) could threaten other parts of the coast.

Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

2016-04-01

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

Tsunami and acoustic-gravity waves in water of constant depth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hendin, Gali; Stiassnie, Michael

2013-08-15

A study of wave radiation by a rather general bottom displacement, in a compressible ocean of otherwise constant depth, is carried out within the framework of a three-dimensional linear theory. Simple analytic expressions for the flow field, at large distance from the disturbance, are derived. Realistic numerical examples indicate that the Acoustic-Gravity waves, which significantly precede the Tsunami, are expected to leave a measurable signature on bottom-pressure records that should be considered for early detection of Tsunami.

Tides and tsunamis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zetler, B. D.

1972-01-01

Although tides and tsunamis are both shallow water waves, it does not follow that they are equally amenable to an observational program using an orbiting altimeter on a satellite. A numerical feasibility investigation using a hypothetical satellite orbit, real tide observations, and sequentially increased levels of white noise has been conducted to study the degradation of the tidal harmonic constants caused by adding noise to the tide data. Tsunami waves, possibly a foot high and one hundred miles long, must be measured in individual orbits, thus requiring high relative resolution.

Near-Field Tsunami Models with Rapid Earthquake Source Inversions from Land and Ocean-Based Observations: The Potential for Forecast and Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, D.; Bock, Y.; Crowell, B. W.; Haase, J. S.

2013-12-01

Computation of predicted tsunami wave heights and runup in the regions adjacent to large earthquakes immediately after rupture initiation remains a challenging problem. Limitations of traditional seismological instrumentation in the near field which cannot be objectively employed for real-time inversions and the non-unique source inversion results are a major concern for tsunami modelers. Employing near-field seismic, GPS and wave gauge data from the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we test the capacity of static finite fault slip models obtained from newly developed algorithms to produce reliable tsunami forecasts. First we demonstrate the ability of seismogeodetic source models determined from combined land-based GPS and strong motion seismometers to forecast near-source tsunamis in ~3 minutes after earthquake origin time (OT). We show that these models, based on land-borne sensors only tend to underestimate the tsunami but are good enough to provide a realistic first warning. We then demonstrate that rapid ingestion of offshore shallow water (100 - 1000 m) wave gauge data significantly improves the model forecasts and possible warnings. We ingest data from 2 near-source ocean-bottom pressure sensors and 6 GPS buoys into the earthquake source inversion process. Tsunami Green functions (tGFs) are generated using the GeoClaw package, a benchmarked finite volume code with adaptive mesh refinement. These tGFs are used for a joint inversion with the land-based data and substantially improve the earthquake source and tsunami forecast. Model skill is assessed by detailed comparisons of the simulation output to 2000+ tsunami runup survey measurements collected after the event. We update the source model and tsunami forecast and warning at 10 min intervals. We show that by 20 min after OT the tsunami is well-predicted with a high variance reduction to the survey data and by ~30 minutes a model that can be considered final, since little changed is observed afterwards, is achieved. This is an indirect approach to tsunami warning, it relies on automatic determination of the earthquake source prior to tsunami simulation. It is more robust than ad-hoc approaches because it relies on computation of a finite-extent centroid moment tensor to objectively determine the style of faulting and the fault plane geometry on which to launch the heterogeneous static slip inversion. Operator interaction and physical assumptions are minimal. Thus, the approach can provide the initial conditions for tsunami simulation (seafloor motion) irrespective of the type of earthquake source and relies heavily on oceanic wave gauge measurements for source determination. It reliably distinguishes among strike-slip, normal and thrust faulting events, all of which have been observed recently to occur in subduction zones and pose distinct tsunami hazards.

Deep water tsunami simulation at global scale using an elastoacoustic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salazar Monroy, E. F.; Ramirez-Guzman, L.; Bielak, J.; Sanchez-Sesma, F. J.

2017-12-01

In this work, we present the results for the first stage of a tsunami global simulation project using an elastoacoustic approach. The solid-fluid interaction, which is only valid on a global scale and far distances from the coast, is modelled using a finite element scheme for a 2D geometry. Comparing analytic and numerical solutions, we observe a good fit for a homogeneous domain - with an extension of 20 km - using 15 points per wavelength. Subsequently, we performed 2D realizations taking a section from a global 3D model and projecting the Tohoku-Oki source obtained by the USGS. The 3D Global model uses the ETOPO1 and the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (Dziewonski and Anderson, 1981). We analysed 3 cross sections, defined using DART buoys as a reference for each section (i.e., initial and final profile point). Surface water elevation obtained with this coupling strategy is constrained at low frequencies (0.2 Hz). We expect that this coupling strategy could approximate the model to high frequencies and realistic scenarios considering other geometries (i.e., 3D) and a complete domain (i.e., surface and deep).

Numerical modeling of marine Gravity data for tsunami hazard zone mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porwal, Nipun

2012-07-01

Tsunami is a series of ocean wave with very high wavelengths ranges from 10 to 500 km. Therefore tsunamis act as shallow water waves and hard to predict from various methods. Bottom Pressure Recorders of Poseidon class considered as a preeminent method to detect tsunami waves but Acoustic Modem in Ocean Bottom Pressure (OBP) sensors placed in the vicinity of trenches having depth of more than 6000m fails to propel OBP data to Surface Buoys. Therefore this paper is developed for numerical modeling of Gravity field coefficients from Bureau Gravimetric International (BGI) which do not play a central role in the study of geodesy, satellite orbit computation, & geophysics but by mathematical transformation of gravity field coefficients using Normalized Legendre Polynomial high resolution ocean bottom pressure (OBP) data is generated. Real time sea level monitored OBP data of 0.3° by 1° spatial resolution using Kalman filter (kf080) for past 10 years by Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) has been correlated with OBP data from gravity field coefficients which attribute a feasible study on future tsunami detection system from space and in identification of most suitable sites to place OBP sensors near deep trenches. The Levitus Climatological temperature and salinity are assimilated into the version of the MITGCM using the ad-joint method to obtain the sea height segment. Then TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter, surface momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes from NCEP reanalysis product and the dynamic ocean topography DOT_DNSCMSS08_EGM08 is used to interpret sea-bottom elevation. Then all datasets are associated under raster calculator in ArcGIS 9.3 using Boolean Intersection Algebra Method and proximal analysis tools with high resolution sea floor topographic map. Afterward tsunami prone area and suitable sites for set up of BPR as analyzed in this research is authenticated by using Passive microwave radiometry system for Tsunami Hazard Zone Mapping by network of seismometers. Thus using such methodology for early Tsunami Hazard Zone Mapping also increase accuracy and reduce time period for tsunami predictions. KEYWORDS:, Tsunami, Gravity Field Coefficients, Ocean Bottom Pressure, ECCO, BGI, Sea Bottom Temperature, Sea Floor Topography.

A Review of Methodologies on Vulnerability Assessment of Buildings to Tsunami Damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekera, R.; Rosetto, T.; Tabuchi, S.; Suppasri, A.; Futami, T.; Scott, I.; Maegawa, H.

2012-04-01

The infrequency, suddenness and violence tsunamis has led to a lack of knowledge on tsunami and lack of data available for the calibration of numerical models particularly in relation to tsunami damage. Therefore, there are very few tsunami structural vulnerability studies available. Of the available literature, most of these started after the disastrous 2004 Indian Ocean event. Most of fragility curves have been developed in some areas struck by the 2004 tsunami, which are very different in architecture and engineering respect to the US, Japanese or European ones. This review aims to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of current knowledge on tsunami fragility by critically assessing several fragility curves based on post tsunami damage surveys in Chile, Japan (including initial findings of the March 2011 event), Samoa, Sri Lanka and Thailand. It is observed that there is no consensus on how to derive tsunami fragility curves. Most of the examined relationships are seen to relate to residential buildings, and, due to the location of recent tsunami occurrences, they mostly represent non-engineered buildings (i.e. all use data from Thailand, Sri Lanka, Samoa, or Sumatra), which limits their usefulness. In the absence of a good understanding of tsunami actions on buildings most existing fragility relationships adopt inundation depth as the hazard parameter in the vulnerability function, which does not account for the other components of onshore flow contributing to tsunami loads on buildings, such as flow velocity.

Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, M.; Ishida, M.; Hayashi, Y.; Mizuki, C.; Nishikawa, Y.; Tu, Y.

2013-09-01

One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) (Mw = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

Simulations of Tsunami Triggered by the 1883 Krakatau Volcanic Eruption: Implications for Tsunami Hazard in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Y.; Lin, J.

2013-12-01

The 1883 Krakatau eruption in Indonesia is one of the largest recorded volcanic eruptions in recent history. The associated tsunami claimed about 36,000 lives and recorded run-up heights up to 30 m along the coastal regions in the Sunda Straits between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Our study aims to better understand the generation and propagation mechanisms of this volcano-induced tsunami through modeling quantitatively the tsunami triggering processes at the source region. Comparison of non-linear simulations using the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) with observations reveals that a donut-shape 'hole and ring' initial condition for the tsunami source is able to explain the key characteristics of the observed tsunami: A 'hole' of about 6 km in diameter and 270 m in depth corresponds to the collapse of the Krakatau volcano on August 27, 1883, while a 'ring' of uplift corresponds to the deposition of the erupted volcanic materials. We found that the shallowness and narrowness of the entrance pathway of the Sunda Straits limited the northward transfer of the tsunami energy from the source region into the South China Sea. Instead, the topographic and bathymetric characteristics favored the southward transfer of the energy into the Indian Ocean. This might explain why Sri Lanka and India suffered casualties from this event, while areas inside the South China Sea, such as Singapore, did not record significant tsunami signals. Modeling results further suggest that the shallow topography of the surrounding islands around the Krakatau source region might have contributed to a reduction in maximum run-up heights in the coastal regions of the Sunda Straits.

Physical experiments and analysis on the generation and evolution of tsunami-induced turbulent coherent structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalligeris, Nikos; Lynett, Patrick

2017-11-01

Numerous historical accounts describe the formation of ``whirpools'' inside ports and harbors during tsunami events, causing port operation disruptions. Videos from the Japan 2011 tsunami revealed complex nearshore flow patters, resulting from the interaction of tsunami-induced currents with the man-made coastline, and the generation of large eddies (or turbulent coherent structures) in numerous ports and harbors near the earthquake epicenter. The aim of this work is to study the generation and evolution of tsunami-induced turbulent coherent structures (TCS) in a well-controlled environment using realistic scaling. A physical configuration is created in the image of a port entrance at a scale of 1:27 and a small-amplitude, long period wave creates a transient flow through the asymmetric harbor channel. A separated region forms, which coupled with the transient flow, leads to the formation of a stable monopolar TCS. The surface flow is examined through mono- and stereo-PTV techniques to extract surface velocity vectors. Surface velocity maps and vortex flow profiles are used to study the experimental TCS generation and evolution, and characterize the TCS structure. Analytical tools are used to describe the TCS growth rate and kinetic energy decay. This work was funded by the National Science Foundation NEES Research program, with Award Number 1135026.

Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.

2012-05-22

Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuatemore » people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.« less

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara

2017-01-01

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

The 26 December 2004 tsunami source estimated from satellite radar altimetry and seismic waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Tony Y.; Ji, Chen; Fu, L. -L.; Zlotnicki, Victor; Shum, C. K.; Yi, Yuchan; Hjorleifsdottir, Vala

2005-01-01

The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was the first earthquake tsunami of its magnitude to occur since the advent of both digital seismometry and satellite radar altimetry. Both have independently recorded the event from different physical aspects. The seismic data has then been used to estimate the earthquake fault parameters, and a three-dimensional ocean-general-circulation-model (OGCM) coupled with the fault information has been used to simulate the satellite-observed tsunami waves. Here we show that these two datasets consistently provide the tsunami source using independent methodologies of seismic waveform inversion and ocean modeling. Cross-examining the two independent results confirms that the slip function is the most important condition controlling the tsunami strength, while the geometry and the rupture velocity of the tectonic plane determine the spatial patterns of the tsunami.

The New Method of Tsunami Source Reconstruction With r-Solution Inversion Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voronina, T. A.; Romanenko, A. A.

2016-12-01

Application of the r-solution method to reconstructing the initial tsunami waveform is discussed. This methodology is based on the inversion of remote measurements of water-level data. The wave propagation is considered within the scope of a linear shallow-water theory. The ill-posed inverse problem in question is regularized by means of a least square inversion using the truncated Singular Value Decomposition method. As a result of the numerical process, an r-solution is obtained. The method proposed allows one to control the instability of a numerical solution and to obtain an acceptable result in spite of ill posedness of the problem. Implementation of this methodology to reconstructing of the initial waveform to 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami validates the theoretical conclusion for synthetic data and a model tsunami source: the inversion result strongly depends on data noisiness, the azimuthal and temporal coverage of recording stations with respect to the source area. Furthermore, it is possible to make a preliminary selection of the most informative set of the available recording stations used in the inversion process.

Tsunami Generation from Asteroid Airburst and Ocean Impact and Van Dorn Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Darrel

2016-01-01

Airburst - In the simulations explored energy from the airburst couples very weakly with the water making tsunami dangerous over a shorter distance than the blast for asteroid sizes up to the maximum expected size that will still airburst (approx.250MT). Future areas of investigation: - Low entry angle airbursts create more cylindrical blasts and might couple more efficiently - Bursts very close to the ground will increase coupling - Inclusion of thermosphere (>80km altitude) may show some plume collapse effects over a large area although with much less pressure center dot Ocean Impact - Asteroid creates large cavity in ocean. Cavity backfills creating central jet. Oscillation between the cavity and jet sends out tsunami wave packet. - For deep ocean impact waves are deep water waves (Phase speed = 2x Group speed) - If the tsunami propagation and inundation calculations are correct for the small (<250MT) asteroids in these simulations where they impact deep ocean basins, the resulting tsunami is not a significant hazard unless particularly close to vulnerable communities. Future work: - Shallow ocean impact. - Effect of continental shelf and beach profiles - Tsunami vs. blast damage radii for impacts close to populated areas - Larger asteroids below presumed threshold of global effects (Ø200 - 800m).

Preliminary Hazard Assessment for Tectonic Tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, B.; Bayazitoglu, O.; Sharghi vand, N.; Kanoglu, U.

2017-12-01

There are many critical industrial facilities such as energy production units and energy transmission lines along the southeast coast of Turkey. This region is also active on tourism, and agriculture and aquaculture production. There are active faults in the region, i.e. the Cyprus Fault, which extends along the Mediterranean basin in the east-west direction and connects to the Hellenic Arc. Both the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc are seismologically active and are capable of generating earthquakes with tsunamigenic potential. Even a small tsunami in the region could cause confusion as shown by the recent 21 July 2017 earthquake of Mw 6.6, which occurred in the Aegean Sea, between Bodrum, Turkey and Kos Island, Greece since region is not prepared for such an event. Moreover, the Mediterranean Sea is one of the most vulnerable regions against sea level rise due to global warming, according to the 5th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For these reasons, a marine hazard such as a tsunami can cause much worse damage than expected in the region (Kanoglu et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 2015). Hence, tsunami hazard assessment is required for the region. In this study, we first characterize earthquakes which have potential to generate a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Such study is a prerequisite for regional tsunami mitigation studies. For fast and timely predictions, tsunami warning systems usually employ databases that store pre-computed tsunami propagation resulting from hypothetical earthquakes with pre-defined parameters. These pre-defined sources are called tsunami unit sources and they are linearly superposed to mimic a real event, since wave propagation is linear offshore. After investigating historical earthquakes along the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc, we identified tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and proposed tsunami unit sources for the region. We used the tsunami numerical model MOST (Titov et al., J. Waterw. Port Coastal Ocean Eng. 142(6), 2016) to numerically solve the nonlinear shallow water-wave equations for calculating offshore wave propagation, shoreline wave heights, and inundation depths through its interface ComMIT (Titov et al., Pure Appl. Geophys. 168(11), 2011) and generated inundation map for one town in the southeast coast of Turkey.

Seismotectonics and Neotectonics of the Gulfs of Gökova-Kuşadasi-Siǧacik and Surrounding Regions (SW Turkey): Earthquake Mechanisms, Source Rupture Modeling, Tsunami Hazard and Geodynamic Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yolsal-Cevikbilen, Seda; Karaoglu, Özgür; Taymaz, Tuncay; Helvaci, Cahit

2013-04-01

The mechanical behavior of the continental lithosphere for the Aegean region is one of the foremost interesting geological disputes in earth sciences. The Aegean region provides complex tectonic events which produced a strong heterogeneity in the crust (i.e. large thrusts and exhumation shear zones or extensional detachments) as such in among most continental regions. In order to investigate mechanical reasons of the ongoing lithospheric-scale extension within the region, we must tackle all of the existing kinematic and dynamic agents: (1) roll back of the subduction slab and back arc extension; (2) westward extrusion of the Anatolian micro-plate; (3) block rotations of the Aegean region and western Anatolia; and (4) transtensional transform faults. Furthermore, seismological studies, particularly earthquake source mechanisms and rupture modeling, play important roles on deciphering the ongoing deformation and seismotectonic characteristics of the region. Recently, many moderate earthquakes occurred in the Gulfs of Gökova, Kuşadası, Sıǧacık and surroundings. In the present study, we examined source mechanisms and rupture histories of those earthquakes with Mw > 5.0 in order to retrieve the geometry of active faulting, source characteristics, kinematic and dynamic source parameters and current deformations of the region by using teleseismic body-waveform inversion of long-period P- and SH-waves, and broad-band P-waveforms recorded by GDSN and FDSN stations. We also checked first motion polarities of P- waveforms recorded at regional and teleseismic stations and applied several uncertainty tests to find the error limits of minimum misfit solutions. Inversion results revealed E-W directed normal faulting mechanisms with small amount of left lateral strike slip components in the Gulf of Gökova and NE-SW oriented right lateral strike slip faulting mechanisms in the Gulf of Sıǧacık. Earthquakes mostly have N-S and NW-SE directed T- axes directions which are consistent with the geology and seismotectonic structures of the region. Further, the major and well-known earthquake-induced Eastern Mediterranean tsunamis (e.g., 365, 1222, 1303, 1481, 1494, 1822 and 1948) were numerically simulated and several hypothetical tsunami scenarios were proposed to demonstrate the characteristics of tsunami waves, propagations and effects of coastal topography. For simulation of tsunami generation, we used nonlinear shallow-water mathematical models (i.e., TUNAMI-N2, AVI-NAMI and NAMI DANCE) with a given GEBCO - BODC bathymetry data. Synthetic tsunami wave amplitudes were calculated by proposing several hypothetical tsunami scenarios for historical tsunamigenic earthquakes occurred along the Hellenic Subduction Zone and Dodecanese Islands. Illustrative examples depicting the characteristics of tsunami wave propagation, and effects of coastal topography and of near-shore amplification were also given. Finally, potential tsunami risk in future along SW Anatolian coasts that will be related to destructive earthquakes (M > 7.0) occurred along the Hellenic subduction zone and near the deep Rhodes-Dalaman Trough is clearly verified.

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan

PubMed Central

Satake, Kenji

2018-01-01

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [Mw (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non–double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of Mzx, Mzy, and M{tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved. PMID:29740604

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan.

PubMed

Fukao, Yoshio; Sandanbata, Osamu; Sugioka, Hiroko; Ito, Aki; Shiobara, Hajime; Watada, Shingo; Satake, Kenji

2018-04-01

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [ M w (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non-double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of M zx , M zy , and M {tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved.

Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

2015-12-01

The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

Relationship between the Prediction Accuracy of Tsunami Inundation and Relative Distribution of Tsunami Source and Observation Arrays: A Case Study in Tokyo Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagawa, T.

2017-12-01

A rapid and precise tsunami forecast based on offshore monitoring is getting attention to reduce human losses due to devastating tsunami inundation. We developed a forecast method based on the combination of hierarchical Bayesian inversion with pre-computed database and rapid post-computing of tsunami inundation. The method was applied to Tokyo bay to evaluate the efficiency of observation arrays against three tsunamigenic earthquakes. One is a scenario earthquake at Nankai trough and the other two are historic ones of Genroku in 1703 and Enpo in 1677. In general, rich observation array near the tsunami source has an advantage in both accuracy and rapidness of tsunami forecast. To examine the effect of observation time length we used four types of data with the lengths of 5, 10, 20 and 45 minutes after the earthquake occurrences. Prediction accuracy of tsunami inundation was evaluated by the simulated tsunami inundation areas around Tokyo bay due to target earthquakes. The shortest time length of accurate prediction varied with target earthquakes. Here, accurate prediction means the simulated values fall within the 95% credible intervals of prediction. In Enpo earthquake case, 5-minutes observation is enough for accurate prediction for Tokyo bay, but 10-minutes and 45-minutes are needed in the case of Nankai trough and Genroku, respectively. The difference of the shortest time length for accurate prediction shows the strong relationship with the relative distance from the tsunami source and observation arrays. In the Enpo case, offshore tsunami observation points are densely distributed even in the source region. So, accurate prediction can be rapidly achieved within 5 minutes. This precise prediction is useful for early warnings. Even in the worst case of Genroku, where less observation points are available near the source, accurate prediction can be obtained within 45 minutes. This information can be useful to figure out the outline of the hazard in an early stage of reaction.

Tsunami Source Estimate for the 1960 Chilean Earthquake from Near- and Far-Field Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, T.; Satake, K.; Watada, S.; Fujii, Y.

2017-12-01

The tsunami source of the 1960 Chilean earthquake was estimated from the near- and far-field tsunami data. The 1960 Chilean earthquake is known as the greatest earthquake instrumentally ever recorded. This earthquake caused a large tsunami which was recorded by 13 near-field tidal gauges in South America, and 84 far-field stations around the Pacific Ocean at the coasts of North America, Asia, and Oceania. The near-field stations had been used for estimating the tsunami source [Fujii and Satake, Pageoph, 2013]. However, far-field tsunami waveforms have not been utilized because of the discrepancy between observed and simulated waveforms. The observed waveforms at the far-field stations are found systematically arrived later than the simulated waveforms. This phenomenon has been also observed in the tsunami of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, the 2010 Chilean earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Recently, the factors for the travel time delay have been explained [Watada et al., JGR, 2014; Allgeyer and Cummins, GRL, 2014], so the far-field data are usable for tsunami source estimation. The phase correction method [Watada et al., JGR, 2014] converts the tsunami waveforms computed by the linear long wave into the dispersive waveform which accounts for the effects of elasticity of the Earth and ocean, ocean density stratification, and gravitational potential change associated with tsunami propagation. We apply the method to correct the computed waveforms. For the preliminary initial sea surface height inversion, we use 12 near-field stations and 63 far-field stations, located in the South and North America, islands in the Pacific Ocean, and the Oceania. The estimated tsunami source from near-field stations is compared with the result from both near- and far-field stations. Two estimated sources show a similar pattern: a large sea surface displacement concentrated at the south of the epicenter close to the coast and extended to south. However, the source estimated from near-field stations shows larger displacement than one from both dataset.

Linking interseismic deformation with coseismic slip using dynamic rupture simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; He, B.; Weng, H.

2017-12-01

The largest earthquakes on earth occur at subduction zones, sometimes accompanied by devastating tsunamis. Reducing losses from megathrust earthquakes and tsunami demands accurate estimate of rupture scenarios for future earthquakes. Interseismic locking distribution derived from geodetic observations is often used to qualitatively evaluate future earthquake potential. However, how to quantitatively estimate the coseismic slip from the locking distribution remains challenging. Here we derive the coseismic rupture process of the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya, Costa Rica, earthquake from interseismic locking distribution using spontaneous rupture simulation. We construct a three-dimensional elastic medium with a curved fault, which is governed by the linear slip-weakening law. The initial stress on the fault is set based on the build-up stress inferred from locking and the dynamic friction coefficient from fast-speed sliding experiments. Our numerical results of coseismic slip distribution, moment rate function and final earthquake moment are well consistent with those derived from seismic and geodetic observations. Furthermore, we find that the epicentral locations affect rupture scenarios and may lead to various sizes of earthquakes given the heterogeneous stress distribution. In the Nicoya region, less than half of rupture initiation regions where the locking degree is greater than 0.6 can develop into large earthquakes (Mw > 7.2). The results of location-dependent earthquake magnitudes underscore the necessity of conducting a large number of simulations to quantitatively evaluate seismic hazard from the interseismic locking models.

A wavefront orientation method for precise numerical determination of tsunami travel time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fine, I. V.; Thomson, R. E.

2013-04-01

We present a highly accurate and computationally efficient method (herein, the "wavefront orientation method") for determining the travel time of oceanic tsunamis. Based on Huygens principle, the method uses an eight-point grid-point pattern and the most recent information on the orientation of the advancing wave front to determine the time for a tsunami to travel to a specific oceanic location. The method is shown to provide improved accuracy and reduced anisotropy compared with the conventional multiple grid-point method presently in widespread use.

Far field tsunami simulations of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake: Implications for tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast and the Caribbean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barkan, R.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Lin, J.

2009-01-01

The great Lisbon earthquake of November 1st, 1755 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.5-9.0 was the most destructive earthquake in European history. The associated tsunami run-up was reported to have reached 5-15??m along the Portuguese and Moroccan coasts and the run-up was significant at the Azores and Madeira Island. Run-up reports from a trans-oceanic tsunami were documented in the Caribbean, Brazil and Newfoundland (Canada). No reports were documented along the U.S. East Coast. Many attempts have been made to characterize the 1755 Lisbon earthquake source using geophysical surveys and modeling the near-field earthquake intensity and tsunami effects. Studying far field effects, as presented in this paper, is advantageous in establishing constraints on source location and strike orientation because trans-oceanic tsunamis are less influenced by near source bathymetry and are unaffected by triggered submarine landslides at the source. Source location, fault orientation and bathymetry are the main elements governing transatlantic tsunami propagation to sites along the U.S. East Coast, much more than distance from the source and continental shelf width. Results of our far and near-field tsunami simulations based on relative amplitude comparison limit the earthquake source area to a region located south of the Gorringe Bank in the center of the Horseshoe Plain. This is in contrast with previously suggested sources such as Marqu??s de Pombal Fault, and Gulf of C??diz Fault, which are farther east of the Horseshoe Plain. The earthquake was likely to be a thrust event on a fault striking ~ 345?? and dipping to the ENE as opposed to the suggested earthquake source of the Gorringe Bank Fault, which trends NE-SW. Gorringe Bank, the Madeira-Tore Rise (MTR), and the Azores appear to have acted as topographic scatterers for tsunami energy, shielding most of the U.S. East Coast from the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Additional simulations to assess tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast from possible future earthquakes along the Azores-Iberia plate boundary indicate that sources west of the MTR and in the Gulf of Cadiz may affect the southeastern coast of the U.S. The Azores-Iberia plate boundary west of the MTR is characterized by strike-slip faults, not thrusts, but the Gulf of Cadiz may have thrust faults. Southern Florida seems to be at risk from sources located east of MTR and South of the Gorringe Bank, but it is mostly shielded by the Bahamas. Higher resolution near-shore bathymetry along the U.S. East Coast and the Caribbean as well as a detailed study of potential tsunami sources in the central west part of the Horseshoe Plain are necessary to verify our simulation results. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Preliminary vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood by Puerto Vallarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trejo-Gómez, E.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Ortiz, M.; Escudero, C. R.; CA-UdG-276 Sisvoc

2013-05-01

Jalisco coast is susceptible to local tsunami due to the occurrence of large earthquakes. In 1932 occurred three by largest earthquakes. Evidence suggests that one of them caused by offshore subsidence of sediments deposited by Armeria River. For the tsunamis 1932 have not been studied the seismic source. On October 9, 1995, occurred a large earthquake (Mw= 8.0) producing a tsunami with run up height up ≤ 5 m. This event affected Tenacatita Bay and many small villages along the coast of Jalisco and Colima. Using seismic source parameters, we simulated 1995 tsunami and estimated the maximum wave height. We compared the our results with 20 field measures 20 taked during 1995 along the south cost of Jalisco State, from Chalacatepec to Barra de Navidad. Similar seismic source parameters used for tsunami 1995 simulation was used as reference for simulating a hypothetical seismic source front Puerto Vallarta. We assumed that the fracture occurs in the gap for the north cost of Jalisco. Ten sites were distributed to cover the Banderas Bay, as theoretical pressure sensors, were estimated the maximum wave height and time to arrived at cost. After we delimited zones hazard zones by floods on digital model terrain, a graphic scale 1:20,000. At the moment, we have already included information by hazard caused by hypothetical tsunami in Puerto Vallarta. The hazard zones by flood were the north of Puerto Vallarta, as Ameca, El Salado, El Pitillal and Camarones. The initial wave height could be ≤ 1 m, 15 minutes after earthquake, in Pitillal zone. We estimated for Puerto Vallarta the maximum flood area was in El Salado zone, ≤ 2 km, with the maximum wave height > 3 m to ≤ 4.8 m at 25 and 75 minutes. We estimated a previous vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood; it was based on the spatial distribution of socio-economic data from INEGI. We estimated a low vulnerability in El Salado and height vulnerability for El Pitillal and Ameca.

Statistical Analysis of Tsunami Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolezzi, Francesca; Del Giudice, Tania; Traverso, Chiara; Valfrè, Giulio; Poggi, Pamela; Parker, Eric J.

2010-05-01

The purpose of this paper was to investigate statistical variability of seismically generated tsunami impact. The specific goal of the work was to evaluate the variability in tsunami wave run-up due to uncertainty in fault rupture parameters (source effects) and to the effects of local bathymetry at an individual location (site effects). This knowledge is critical to development of methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Two types of variability were considered: • Inter-event; • Intra-event. Generally, inter-event variability refers to the differences of tsunami run-up at a given location for a number of different earthquake events. The focus of the current study was to evaluate the variability of tsunami run-up at a given point for a given magnitude earthquake. In this case, the variability is expected to arise from lack of knowledge regarding the specific details of the fault rupture "source" parameters. As sufficient field observations are not available to resolve this question, numerical modelling was used to generate run-up data. A scenario magnitude 8 earthquake in the Hellenic Arc was modelled. This is similar to the event thought to have caused the infamous 1303 tsunami. The tsunami wave run-up was computed at 4020 locations along the Egyptian coast between longitudes 28.7° E and 33.8° E. Specific source parameters (e.g. fault rupture length and displacement) were varied, and the effects on wave height were determined. A Monte Carlo approach considering the statistical distribution of the underlying parameters was used to evaluate the variability in wave height at locations along the coast. The results were evaluated in terms of the coefficient of variation of the simulated wave run-up (standard deviation divided by mean value) for each location. The coefficient of variation along the coast was between 0.14 and 3.11, with an average value of 0.67. The variation was higher in areas of irregular coast. This level of variability is similar to that seen in ground motion attenuation correlations used for seismic hazard assessment. The second issue was intra-event variability. This refers to the differences in tsunami wave run-up along a section of coast during a single event. Intra-event variability investigated directly considering field observations. The tsunami events used in the statistical evaluation were selected on the basis of the completeness and reliability of the available data. Tsunami considered for the analysis included the recent and well surveyed tsunami of Boxing Day 2004 (Great Indian Ocean Tsunami), Java 2006, Okushiri 1993, Kocaeli 1999, Messina 1908 and a case study of several historic events in Hawaii. Basic statistical analysis was performed on the field observations from these tsunamis. For events with very wide survey regions, the run-up heights have been grouped in order to maintain a homogeneous distance from the source. Where more than one survey was available for a given event, the original datasets were maintained separately to avoid combination of non-homogeneous data. The observed run-up measurements were used to evaluate the minimum, maximum, average, standard deviation and coefficient of variation for each data set. The minimum coefficient of variation was 0.12 measured for the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami at Nias Island (7 data) while the maximum is 0.98 for the Okushiri 1993 event (93 data). The average coefficient of variation is of the order of 0.45.

Road infrastructure resilience to tsunami in Cilegon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arini, Srikandi Wahyu; Sumabrata, Jachrizal

2017-11-01

Indonesia is vulnerable to natural disasters. The highest number of natural disaster occurs on the west side of Java Island with the tsunami as the most deadly. Cilegon, a densely populated city with high industrial activity is located on the west coast of Java Island with a gently sloping topography, hence it is vulnerable to tsunami. Simulations conducted by the National Disaster Management Authority indicates that earthquakes with epicenters in the Sunda strait will cause tsunamis which can sweep away the whole industrial area in one hour. The availability of evacuation routes which can accommodate the evacuation of large numbers of people within a short time is required. Road infrastructure resilience is essential to support the performance of the evacuation routes. Poor network resilience will reduce mobility and accessibility during the evacuation. The objectives of this paper are to analyze the impact of the earthquake-generated tsunami on the evacuation routes and to simulate and analyze the performance of existing evacuation routes in Cilegon. The limitations of the modeling approaches including the current and future challenges in evacuation transport research and its applications are also discussed. The conclusion from this study is accurate data source are needed to build a more representative model and predict the areas susceptible to tsunamis vulnerable areas and to construct cogent tsunami mitigation plans and actions for the most vulnerable areas.

Simulation of Earthquake-Generated Sea-Surface Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogl, Chris; Leveque, Randy

2016-11-01

Earthquake-generated tsunamis can carry with them a powerful, destructive force. One of the most well-known, recent examples is the tsunami generated by the Tohoku earthquake, which was responsible for the nuclear disaster in Fukushima. Tsunami simulation and forecasting, a necessary element of emergency procedure planning and execution, is typically done using the shallow-water equations. A typical initial condition is that using the Okada solution for a homogeneous, elastic half-space. This work focuses on simulating earthquake-generated sea-surface deformations that are more true to the physics of the materials involved. In particular, a water layer is added on top of the half-space that models the seabed. Sea-surface deformations are then simulated using the Clawpack hyperbolic PDE package. Results from considering the water layer both as linearly elastic and as "nearly incompressible" are compared to that of the Okada solution.

Tsunami early warning in the central Mediterranean: effect of the heterogeneity of the seismic source on the timely detectability of a tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2012-04-01

The central Mediterranean, and in particular the coasts of southern Italy, is one of the areas with the highest tsunami hazard in Europe. Limiting our attention to earthquake-generated tsunamis, the sources of historical events hitting this region, as well as the largest part of the potential tsunamigenic seismic sources mapped there, are found at very short distances from the closest shorelines, reducing the time needed for the tsunami to attack the coasts themselves to few minutes. This represents by itself an issue from the Tsunami Early Warning (TEW) perspective. To make the overall problem even more intriguing and challenging, it is known that large tsunamigenic earthquakes are generally characterized by highly heterogeneous distributions of the slip on the fault. This feature has been recognized clearly, for instance, in the giant Sumatra 2004, Chile 2010, and Japan 2011 earthquakes (magnitude 9.3, 8.8 and 9.0, respectively), but it was a property also of smaller magnitude events occurred in the region considered in this study, like the 28 December 1908 Messina Straits tsunamigenic earthquake (M=7.2). In terms of tsunami impact, the parent fault slip heterogeneity usually determines a high variability of run-up and inundation on the near-field coasts, which further complicates the TEW problem. The information on the details of the seismic source rupture coming from the seismic (and possibly geodetic) networks, though of primary importance, is typically available after a time that is comparable or larger than the time comprised between the generation and the impact of the tsunami. In the framework of the EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project, we investigate how a proper marine sensors coverage both along the coasts and offshore can help posing constraints on the characteristics of the source in near-real time. Our approach consists in discussing numerical tsunami scenarios in the central Mediterranean involving different slip distributions on the parent fault; the tsunamigenic region we take into consideration is the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment located offshore eastern Sicily, where several large historical tsunamigenic earthquakes took place (e.g. 11 January 1693). Starting from different slip configurations on a chosen fault, we compare the time series of wave elevation simulated for tide gauges placed along the coast and for virtual deep sea sensors placed at different distances from the source area. The final goal is to understand whether a properly designed marine sensor network can help determining in real-time the slip characteristics along the parent fault and hence forecasting the pattern of impact of the tsunami especially along the closest coasts.

Numerical Modelling of Solitary Wave Experiments on Rubble Mound Breakwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guler, H. G.; Arikawa, T.; Baykal, C.; Yalciner, A. C.

2016-12-01

Performance of a rubble mound breakwater protecting Haydarpasa Port, Turkey, has been tested under tsunami attack by physical model tests conducted at Port and Airport Research Institute (Guler et al, 2015). It is aimed to understand dynamic force of the tsunami by conducting solitary wave tests (Arikawa, 2015). In this study, the main objective is to perform numerical modelling of solitary wave tests in order to verify accuracy of the CFD model IHFOAM, developed in OpenFOAM environment (Higuera et al, 2013), by comparing results of the numerical computations with the experimental results. IHFOAM is the numerical modelling tool which is based on VARANS equations with a k-ω SST turbulence model including realistic wave generation, and active wave absorption. Experiments are performed using a Froude scale of 1/30, measuring surface elevation and flow velocity at several locations in the wave channel, and wave pressure around the crown wall of the breakwater. Solitary wave tests with wave heights of H=7.5 cm and H=10 cm are selected which represent the results of the experiments. The first test (H=7.5 cm) is the case that resulted in no damage whereas the second case (H=10 cm) resulted in total damage due to the sliding of the crown wall. After comparison of the preliminary results of numerical simulations with experimental data for both cases, it is observed that solitary wave experiments could be accurately modeled using IHFOAM focusing water surface elevations, flow velocities, and wave pressures on the crown wall of the breakwater (Figure, result of sim. at t=29.6 sec). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe authors acknowledge developers of IHFOAM, further extend their acknowledgements for the partial supports from the research projects MarDiM, ASTARTE, RAPSODI, and TUBITAK 213M534. REFERENCESArikawa (2015) "Consideration of Characteristics of Pressure on Seawall by Solitary Waves Based on Hydraulic Experiments", Jour. of Japan. Soc. of Civ. Eng. Ser. B2 (Coast. Eng.), Vol 71, p I889-I894 Guler, Arikawa, Oei, Yalciner (2015) "Performance of Rubble Mound Breakwaters under Tsunami Attack, A Case Study: Haydarpasa Port, Istanbul, Turkey", Coast. Eng. 104, 43-53 Higuera, Lara, Losada (2013) "Realistic Wave Generation and Active Wave Absorption for Navier-Stokes Models, Application to OpenFOAM", Coast. Eng. 71, 102-118

Near Source 2007 Peru Tsunami Runup Observations and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, J. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Broncano, P.; Ortega, E.

2008-12-01

On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights and massive inundation distances up to 2 km were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. As with all near field tsunamis, the waves struck within minutes of the massive ground shaking. Spontaneous evacuations coordinated by the Peruvian Coast Guard minimized the fatalities and illustrate the importance of community-based education and awareness programs. The residents of the fishing village Lagunilla were unaware of the tsunami hazard after an earthquake and did not evacuate, which resulted in 3 fatalities. Despite the relatively benign tsunami effects at Pisco from this event, the tsunami hazard for this city (and its liquefied natural gas terminal) cannot be underestimated. Between 1687 and 1868, the city of Pisco was destroyed 4 times by tsunami waves. Since then, two events (1974 and 2007) have resulted in partial inundation and moderate damage. The fact that potentially devastating tsunami runup heights were observed immediately south of the peninsula only serves to underscore this point.

Giant Landslides, Mega-Tsunamis, and Paleo-Sea Level in the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watts, P.; McMurtry, G. M.; Fryer, G. J.; Smith, J. R.; Imamura, F.

2001-12-01

We show considerable agreement between the ages of the two giant Alika landslides and dating of debris found tens to hundreds of meters above sea level in Hawaii. Despite the size of the landslides, controversy persists as to the ability to generate landslide tsunamis big enough to deposit the debris. We affirm that tsunami deposits are a sufficient explanation of the observed pattern of debris height. We also show that our tsunami simulations can be used to reduce the considerable uncertainty in subsidence history of the different Hawaiian islands, a current obstacle to interpreting the supposed deposits. Finally, we show that the onset of interglacials provides a probable explanation for the timing of these giant landslides over the last five million years. We predict that the greatest tsunami hazard facing the Hawaiian islands are giant landslides and that the current interglacial promotes the generation of mega-tsunamis from catastrophic volcano collapse. Hawaiian giant submarine landslide events have been recognized from detached submarine landslide blocks and fields of smaller debris by offshore surveys. Mega-tsunamis produced by giant landslides were first proposed for Hawaii and have since been implicated globally at other oceanic islands and along the continental margins. While not discounting the possibility of locally-generated tsunamis, some researchers have cast doubt upon the original hypothesis of giant waves impacting Lanai and other Hawaiian islands from flank failures of the nearby Mauna Loa Volcano on Hawaii island. Landslide tsunami simulations have advanced to the point where the tsunamigenic potential of the giant submarine landslides can be affirmed, while the subsidence history of different Hawaiian islands is still subject to debate.

Earthquake and submarine landslide tsunamis: how can we tell the difference? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tappin, D. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Harris, J.; Geller, R. J.; Masterlark, T.; Kirby, J. T.; Ma, G.; Shi, F.

2013-12-01

Several major recent events have shown the tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures (SMF), i.e., submarine landslides. In 1992 a small earthquake triggered landslide generated a tsunami over 25 meters high on Flores Island. In 1998 another small, earthquake-triggered, sediment slump-generated tsunami up to 15 meters high devastated the local coast of Papua New Guinea killing 2,200 people. It was this event that led to the recognition of the importance of marine geophysical data in mapping the architecture of seabed sediment failures that could be then used in modeling and validating the tsunami generating mechanism. Seabed mapping of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake rupture zone demonstrated, however, that large, if not great, earthquakes do not necessarily cause major seabed failures, but that along some convergent margins frequent earthquakes result in smaller sediment failures that are not tsunamigenic. Older events, such as Messina, 1908, Makran, 1945, Alaska, 1946, and Java, 2006, all have the characteristics of SMF tsunamis, but for these a SMF source has not been proven. When the 2011 tsunami struck Japan, it was generally assumed that it was directly generated by the earthquake. The earthquake has some unusual characteristics, such as a shallow rupture that is somewhat slow, but is not a 'tsunami earthquake.' A number of simulations of the tsunami based on an earthquake source have been published, but in general the best results are obtained by adjusting fault rupture models with tsunami wave gauge or other data so, to the extent that they can model the recorded tsunami data, this demonstrates self-consistency rather than validation. Here we consider some of the existing source models of the 2011 Japan event and present new tsunami simulations based on a combination of an earthquake source and an SMF mapped from offshore data. We show that the multi-source tsunami agrees well with available tide gauge data and field observations and the wave data from offshore buoys, and that the SMF generated the large runups in the Sanriku region (northern Tohoku). Our new results for the 2011 Tohoku event suggest that care is required in using tsunami wave and tide gauge data to both model and validate earthquake tsunami sources. They also suggest a potential pitfall in the use of tsunami waveform inversion from tide gauges and buoys to estimate the size and spatial characteristics of earthquake rupture. If the tsunami source has a significant SMF component such studies may overestimate earthquake magnitude. Our seabed mapping identifies other large SMFs off Sanriku that have the potential to generate significant tsunamis and which should be considered in future analyses of the tsunami hazard in Japan. The identification of two major SMF-generated tsunamis (PNG and Tohoku), especially one associated with a M9 earthquake, is important in guiding future efforts at forecasting and mitigating the tsunami hazard from large megathrust plus SMF events both in Japan and globally.

The Evaluation of Cone Capsule as an Alternative Hull form for Portable Tsunami Lifeboat to Support Evacuation System in the Coastal Regions and Small Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fauzan Zakki, Ahmad; Suharto; Windyandari, Aulia

2018-03-01

Several attempts have been made to reduce the risk of tsunami disasters such as the development of early warning systems, evacuation procedures training, coastal protection and coastal spatial planning. Although many efforts to mitigate the impact of the tsunami in Indonesia was made, no one has developed a portable disaster rescue vehicle/shelter as well as a lifeboat on ships and offshore building, which is always available when a disaster occurs. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the performance of cone capsule shaped hull form that would be used for the portable tsunami lifeboat. The investigation of the boat resistance, intact stability, and seakeeping characteristics was made. The numerical analysis results indicate that the cone capsule is reliable as an alternative hull form for the portable tsunami lifeboat.

Optimal Design for Placements of Tsunami Observing Systems to Accurately Characterize the Inducing Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulia, Iyan E.; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Satake, Kenji

2017-12-01

Recently, there are numerous tsunami observation networks deployed in several major tsunamigenic regions. However, guidance on where to optimally place the measurement devices is limited. This study presents a methodological approach to select strategic observation locations for the purpose of tsunami source characterizations, particularly in terms of the fault slip distribution. Initially, we identify favorable locations and determine the initial number of observations. These locations are selected based on extrema of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spatial modes. To further improve the accuracy, we apply an optimization algorithm called a mesh adaptive direct search to remove redundant measurement locations from the EOF-generated points. We test the proposed approach using multiple hypothetical tsunami sources around the Nankai Trough, Japan. The results suggest that the optimized observation points can produce more accurate fault slip estimates with considerably less number of observations compared to the existing tsunami observation networks.

Tsunami geology in paleoseismology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuichi Nishimura,; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2015-01-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). Tsunamis are observed not only on the margin of oceans but also in lakes. The majority of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but other events that displace water such as landslides and volcanic eruptions can also generate tsunamis. These non-earthquake tsunamis occur less frequently than earthquake tsunamis; it is, therefore, very important to find and study geologic evidence for past eruption and submarine landslide triggered tsunami events, as their rare occurrence may lead to risks being underestimated. Geologic investigations of tsunamis have historically relied on earthquake geology. Geophysicists estimate the parameters of vertical coseismic displacement that tsunami modelers use as a tsunami's initial condition. The modelers then let the simulated tsunami run ashore. This approach suffers from the relationship between the earthquake and seafloor displacement, the pertinent parameter in tsunami generation, being equivocal. In recent years, geologic investigations of tsunamis have added sedimentology and micropaleontology, which focus on identifying and interpreting depositional and erosional features of tsunamis. For example, coastal sediment may contain deposits that provide important information on past tsunami events [190, 191]. In some cases, a tsunami is recorded by a single sand layer. Elsewhere, tsunami deposits can consist of complex layers of mud, sand, and boulders, containing abundant stratigraphic evidence for sediment reworking and redeposition. These onshore sediments are geologic evidence for tsunamis and are called ‘tsunami deposits’ (Figs. 26 and 27). Tsunami deposits can be classified into two groups: modern tsunami deposits and paleotsunami deposits. A modern tsunami deposit is a deposit whose source event is known. A paleotsunami deposit is a deposit whose age is estimated and has a source that is either inferred to be a historical event or is unknown.

Measuring and forecasting great tsunamis by GNSS-based vertical positioning of multiple ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inazu, D.; Waseda, T.; Hibiya, T.; Ohta, Y.

2016-12-01

Vertical ship positioning by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) was investigated for measuring and forecasting great tsunamis. We first examined existing GNSS vertical position data of a navigating vessel. The result indicated that by using the kinematic Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method, tsunamis greater than 10^-1 m can be detected from the vertical position of the ship. Based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, tens of cargo ships and tankers are regularly identified navigating over the Nankai Trough, southwest of Japan. We then assumed that a future Nankai Trough great earthquake tsunami will be observed by ships at locations based on AIS data. The tsunami forecast capability by these virtual offshore tsunami measurements was examined. A conventional Green's function based inversion was used to determine the initial tsunami height distribution. Tsunami forecast tests over the Nankai Trough were carried out using simulated tsunami data of the vertical positions of multiple cargo ships/tankers on a certain day, and of the currently operating observations by deep-sea pressure gauges and Global Positioning System (GPS) buoys. The forecast capability of ship-based tsunami height measurements alone was shown to be comparable to or better than that using the existing offshore observations.

One year after the 1 April 2014 Iquique tsunami field survey along the coasts of Chile and Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, Marcelo; Fritz, Hermann M.

2015-04-01

One year ago on the evening of 1 April, 2014 a magnitude Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred off the coast of northern Chile off the coast of Pisagua within a region of historic quiescence termed the northern Chile seismic gap. The ensuing tsunami inundation caused mostly minor damage centered in Iquique and neighbouring stretches of coastline. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from the past 1868 and 1877 tsunamis in the region along with the recent 2010 Maule tsunami, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. There were no tsunami victims; while a handful of fatalities were associated to earthquake induced building collapses and the physical stress of tsunami evacuation. The Arica native local scientist deployed overnight and started the tsunami survey in Iquique on the day after the earthquake. The international scientist joined the local effort from April 6 to 11, 2014. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns, performance of the navigation infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The ITST covered a 700 km stretch of coastline from the Mejillones Peninsula (23.5° S) north of Antofagasta in Chile up to Vila Vila (18.1° S) in southern Peru. We surveyed 30 locations with differential GPS and laser range finders. The tsunami impact peaked at Caleta Camarones exceeding 5 m in tsunami runup height. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along the coastlines of Chile and Peru both at local and regional scales. The tsunami occurred in the evening hours limiting the availability of eyewitness video footages. Observations from the 2014 Chile tsunami are compared against the 1868, 1877 and 2010 Chile tsunamis. Comparing to other similar magnitude events such as the 2007 Pisco tsunami in Peru the 1 April 2014 tsunami could have been significantly larger. The absence of a massive tsunami may mislead residents to believe another similarly minor tsunami may be generated after a potential future earthquake of similar magnitude. This April fool's day event poses significant challenges to community-based education raising tsunami awareness. The team educated residents about tsunami hazards since awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from near-field tsunamis.

A Collaborative Effort Between Caribbean States for Tsunami Numerical Modeling: Case Study CaribeWave15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; López-Venegas, Alberto; Sánchez-Escobar, Rónald; Luque-Vergara, Néstor

2018-04-01

Historical records have shown that tsunami have affected the Caribbean region in the past. However infrequent, recent studies have demonstrated that they pose a latent hazard for countries within this basin. The Hazard Assessment Working Group of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS (Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Early Warning System for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Threats for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions) of IOC/UNESCO has a modeling subgroup, which seeks to develop a modeling platform to assess the effects of possible tsunami sources within the basin. The CaribeWave tsunami exercise is carried out annually in the Caribbean region to increase awareness and test tsunami preparedness of countries within the basin. In this study we present results of tsunami inundation using the CaribeWave15 exercise scenario for four selected locations within the Caribbean basin (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Puerto Rico), performed by tsunami modeling researchers from those selected countries. The purpose of this study was to provide the states with additional results for the exercise. The results obtained here were compared to co-seismic deformation and tsunami heights within the basin (energy plots) provided for the exercise to assess the performance of the decision support tools distributed by PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), the tsunami service provider for the Caribbean basin. However, comparison of coastal tsunami heights was not possible, due to inconsistencies between the provided fault parameters and the modeling results within the provided exercise products. Still, the modeling performed here allowed to analyze tsunami characteristics at the mentioned states from sources within the North Panamá Deformed Belt. The occurrence of a tsunami in the Caribbean may affect several countries because a great variety of them share coastal zones in this basin. Therefore, collaborative efforts similar to the one presented in this study, particularly between neighboring countries, are critical to assess tsunami hazard and increase preparedness within the countries.

A Collaborative Effort Between Caribbean States for Tsunami Numerical Modeling: Case Study CaribeWave15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; López-Venegas, Alberto; Sánchez-Escobar, Rónald; Luque-Vergara, Néstor

2017-10-01

Historical records have shown that tsunami have affected the Caribbean region in the past. However infrequent, recent studies have demonstrated that they pose a latent hazard for countries within this basin. The Hazard Assessment Working Group of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS (Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Early Warning System for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Threats for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions) of IOC/UNESCO has a modeling subgroup, which seeks to develop a modeling platform to assess the effects of possible tsunami sources within the basin. The CaribeWave tsunami exercise is carried out annually in the Caribbean region to increase awareness and test tsunami preparedness of countries within the basin. In this study we present results of tsunami inundation using the CaribeWave15 exercise scenario for four selected locations within the Caribbean basin (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Puerto Rico), performed by tsunami modeling researchers from those selected countries. The purpose of this study was to provide the states with additional results for the exercise. The results obtained here were compared to co-seismic deformation and tsunami heights within the basin (energy plots) provided for the exercise to assess the performance of the decision support tools distributed by PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), the tsunami service provider for the Caribbean basin. However, comparison of coastal tsunami heights was not possible, due to inconsistencies between the provided fault parameters and the modeling results within the provided exercise products. Still, the modeling performed here allowed to analyze tsunami characteristics at the mentioned states from sources within the North Panamá Deformed Belt. The occurrence of a tsunami in the Caribbean may affect several countries because a great variety of them share coastal zones in this basin. Therefore, collaborative efforts similar to the one presented in this study, particularly between neighboring countries, are critical to assess tsunami hazard and increase preparedness within the countries.

Field Survey of the 2015 Ilapel Tsunami in North Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, M.; Fritz, H. M.

2016-12-01

The magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquake in north-central Chile on September 16, 2015 generated a tsunami that rapidly flooded coastal areas. The tsunami impact was concentrated in Coquimbo region, while the regions of Valparaiso and Atacama were also affected. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from the past tsunamis in the region, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. The event caused 11 fatalities: 8 were associated with the tsunami, while 3 were attributed to building collapses caused by the earthquake. The international scientist joined the local effort from September 20 to 26, 2015. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns, performance of the navigation infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The ITST covered a 500 km stretch of coastline from Caleta Chañaral de Aceituno (28.8° S) south of Huasco down to Llolleo near San Antonio (33.6° S). We surveyed more than 40 locations and recorded more than 100 tsunami and runup heights with differential GPS and integrated laser range finders. The tsunami impact peaked at Caleta Totoral near Punta Aldea with both tsunami and runup heights exceeding 10 m as surveyed on September 22. Runup exceeded 10 m at a second uninhabited location some 15 km south of Caleta Totoral. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along the coastlines of central Chile at local and regional scales. The tsunami occurred in the evening hours limiting the availability of eyewitness video footages. Observations from the 2015 Chile tsunami are compared with recent Chilean tsunamis. The tsunami was characterized by rapid arrival within minutes in the nearfield requiring spontaneous self-evacuation as warning messages did not reach some of the hardest hit fishing villages prior to tsunami arrival. The absence of a massive tsunami outside of the Coquimbo region may mislead evacuated residents in the adjacent Atacama and Valparaíso regions of Chile in potential future events. This event poses significant challenges to community-based education raising tsunami awareness.

South American Tsunamis in Lyttelton Harbor, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, Jose C.; Goring, Derek G.

2015-03-01

At 2347 UTC on April 1, 2014 (12:47 pm April 2, 2014 NZDT) an earthquake with a moment magnitude of 8.2 occurred offshore of Iquique in northern Chile. The temblor generated a tsunami that was observed locally and recorded on tide gauges and deep ocean tsunameters close to the source region. While real time modeling based on inverted tsunameter data and finite fault solutions of the earthquake rupture suggested that a damaging far-field tsunami was not expected (and later confirmed), this event nevertheless reminded us of the threat posed to New Zealand by tsunami generated along the west coast of South America and from the Peru/Chile border region in particular. In this paper we quantitatively assess the tsunami hazard at Lyttelton Harbor from South American tsunamis through a review of historical accounts, numerical modeling of past events and analysis of water level records. A sensitivity study for tsunamis generated along the length of the South American Subduction Zone is used to illustrate which section of the subduction zone would generate the strongest response at Lyttelton while deterministic scenario modeling of significant historical South American tsunamis (i.e. 1868, 1877 and 1960) provide a quantitative estimate of the expected effects from possible future great earthquakes along the coast of South America.

Three-dimensional simulation of a rock slide impact into water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, R.; Gisler, G.; Gittings, M.; Ranta, D.

2007-12-01

The steep-sided fjords of western Norway have experienced numerous rock slide events that sometimes produced devastating tsunamis. The 1934 slide in the Tafjord region, when some 3 million cubic meters of rock plunged into the water, resulted in waves tens of meters high that destroyed two villages and killed about 40 people. A similarly dangerous situation exists now in Sunnylvsfjord, where a major expanding crack in the fjord wall at Aknes threatens to release from 5 to 40 million cubic meters of rock into the water. Such an event would devastate a large region, including the Geiranger Fjord, a UN World Heritage Site that is extremely popular with tourists. The Norwegian Government's Aknes-Tafjord project is responsible for studying and monitoring the potential slide area and for providing adequate warning to protect lives and property. In order to better understand tsunami generation from such events, we have performed 3-dimensional fully compressible hydrodynamical simulations of the impact of a large number of boulders from a steep slope into a deep body of water. We use the Los Alamos/SAIC adaptive-mesh-refined SAGE code, previously used to model tsunamis from underwater explosions, asteroid impacts, and both subaqueous and subaerial landslide sources. We find the interaction of boulders and water to be extremely turbulent and dissipative. It differs markedly from simulations of large-block impacts in similar geometry. No more than about 15% of the potential energy of the boulders ends up in the water wave. The rest of the energy goes into heating the boulders (and presumably fragmenting them, though that physics is not included) into generating winds, heating air and water, and generating turbulence. In the near field, the waves produced by the impact can be quite high -- tens of meters -- and have the potential to devastate coastlines at substantial distances from the site along a narrow fjord system.

The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami on the Coast of Mexico: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaytsev, Oleg; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Thomson, Richard E.

2017-08-01

The Tohoku (East Japan) earthquake of 11 March 2011 ( M w 9.0) generated a great trans-oceanic tsunami that spread throughout the Pacific Ocean, where it was measured by numerous coastal tide gauges and open-ocean DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) stations. Statistical and spectral analyses of the tsunami waves recorded along the Pacific coast of Mexico have enabled us to estimate the principal parameters of the waves along the coast and to compare statistical features of the tsunami with other tsunamis recorded on this coast. We identify coastal "hot spots"—Manzanillo, Zihuatanejo, Acapulco, and Ensenada—corresponding to sites having highest tsunami hazard potential, where wave heights during the 2011 event exceeded 1.5-2 m and tsunami-induced currents were strong enough to close port operations. Based on a joint spectral analysis of the tsunamis and background noise, we reconstructed the spectra of tsunami waves in the deep ocean and found that, with the exception of the high-frequency spectral band (>5 cph), the spectra are in close agreement with the "true" tsunami spectra determined from DART bottom pressure records. The departure of the high-frequency spectra in the coastal region from the deep-sea spectra is shown to be related to background infragravity waves generated in the coastal zone. The total energy and frequency content of the Tohoku tsunami is compared with the corresponding results for the 2010 Chilean tsunami. Our findings show that the integral open-ocean tsunami energy, I 0, was 2.30 cm2, or approximately 1.7 times larger than for the 2010 event. Comparison of this parameter with the mean coastal tsunami variance (451 cm2) indicates that tsunami waves propagating onshore from the open ocean amplified by 14 times; the same was observed for the 2010 tsunami. The "tsunami colour" (frequency content) for the 2011 Tohoku tsunami was "red", with about 65% of the total energy associated with low-frequency waves at frequencies <1.7 cph (periods >35 min). The "red colour" (i.e., the prevalence of low-frequency waves) in the 2011 Tohoku, as well as in the 2010 Chile tsunamis, is explained by the large extension of the source areas. In contrast, the 2014 and 2015 Chilean earthquakes had much smaller source areas and, consequently, induced "bluish" (high-frequency) tsunamis.

Severity and exposure associated to tsunami actions in urban waterfronts. The case of Lisbon, Portugal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conde, Daniel; Telhado, Maria J.; Viana Baptista, Maria A.; Antunes, Carlos M.; Ferreira, Rui M. L.

2014-05-01

The Tagus estuary is recognized as an exposed location to tsunami occurrences, given its proximity to tsunamigenic faults such as the Marquês de Pombal and the Horseshoe fault system. Lisbon, bordered by the Tagus estuary, is a critical point of Portugal's tsunami hazard map, having been affected by several tsunamis (Baptista and Miranda, 2009) including the notorious event of November 1st 1755, the last major natural disaster known to have inflicted massive destruction in Portugal. The main objective of this work, a joint initiative of CEHIDRO (IST - Universidade de Lisboa) and the Municipal Civil Protection Services of Lisbon, is to contribute to the quantification of severity and exposure of Lisbon waterfront to tsunami events. For that purpose, the propagation of a tsunami similar to that of the 1st November of 1755 in the Tagus estuary was numerically simulated. Several scenarios were considered, articulating the influence of tidal (low and high tides), atmospheric (increase in water level due to storm surges) and hydrological (flow discharge in Tagus river) conditions. Different initial and boundary conditions were defined for each modelling scenario but the magnitude of the tsunami remained what is believed to be an exceptional event. The extent of the inundation and relevant hydrodynamic quantities were registered for all scenarios. The employed simulation tool - STAV-2D - was developed at CEHIDRO (IST) and is based on a 2DH spatial (Eulerian) shallow-flow approach suited to complex and dynamic bottom boundaries. The discretization technique relies on a finite-volume scheme, based on a flux-splitting technique incorporating a reviewed version of the Roe Riemann solver (Canelas et al. 2013, Conde et al. 2013). STAV-2D features conservation equations for the finer solid phase of the flow and also a Lagrangian model for the advection of larger debris elements. The urban meshwork was thoroughly discretized with a mesh finer than average street width. This fine discretization allows for resolving flow resistance associated to obstacles: no ad hoc formulations are needed to express drag on buildings, which is a key innovation in regard to previous studies. Additionally, vehicle-like particles were virtually placed over the major traffic nodes and routes, resulting in over 5000 lagrangian particles along the riverfront. This allows for an assessment of debris deposition patterns on the aftermath of the tsunami inundation. Severity is herein assumed to depend on hydrodynamic features of the tsunami, namely its capacity to impart momentum. Exposure to tsunami actions depends on the extent of the inundation. Both severity and exposure thus vary with the tsunami scenario considered. The obtained results, obtained with a high detail of hydrodynamic behavior, allow for a street-by-street quantification of severity, expressed in terms of the product of the depth-averaged velocity by the flow depth (Karvonen et al., 2000), herein the q-parameter. This parameter is shown to be larger during run-up, particularly in streets and narrow sections. It was observed that the scenario with greater exposure is a combination of a high-tide, a storm surge and a discharge equivalent to a 100 year flood on the Tagus River. The work conducted allows for designing a methodology for exposure assessment due to tsunami propagating over urban meshes, where the influence of the existing infrastructures on the incoming inundation is highly relevant. Such methodology, here applied to Lisbon waterfront, is general since it is defined in terms of quantifiable hydrodynamic variables. Acknowledgements: Project RECI/ECM-HID/0371/2012, funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), has partially supported this work. References: Baptista, M.A., Miranda, J.M. (2009). Revision of the Portuguese catalog of tsunamis. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 25 - 42. Canelas, R., Murillo, J. & Ferreira, R.M.L. (2013). Two-dimensional depth-averaged modelling of dam-break flows over mobile beds. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 51(4), 392-407. Conde, D., Baptista, M. A. V., Sousa Oliveira, C., and Ferreira, R. M. L. (2013). A shallow-flow model for the propagation of tsunamis over complex geometries and mobile beds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2533-2542. Karvonen, R.A., Hepojoki, A., Huhta, H.K., and Louhio, A. (2000) The Use of Physical Models in Dam-Break Analysis. RESCDAM Final Report. Helsinki University of Technology, Helsinki, Finland.

Tsunami Hazard in the Algerian Coastline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amir, L. A.

2008-05-01

The Algerian coastline is located at the border between the African and the Eurasian tectonic plates. The collision between these two plates is approximately 4 to 7 mm/yr. The Alps and the tellian Atlas result from this convergence. Historical and present day data show the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude up to 7 degrees on Richter scale in the northern part of the country. Cities were destroyed and the number of victims reached millions of people. Recently, small seismic waves generated by a destructive earthquake (Epicenter: 36.90N, 3.71E; Mw=6.8; Algeria, 2003, NEIC) were recorded in the French and Spanish coasts. This event raised again the issue of tsunami hazard in western Mediterranean region. For the Algerian study case, the assessment of seismic and tsunami hazard is a matter of great interest because of fast urban development of cities like Algiers. This study aims to provide scientific arguments to help in the elaboration of the Mediterranean tsunami alert program. This is a real complex issue because (1) the western part of the sea is narrow, (2) constructions on the Algerian coastline do not respect safety standards and (3) the seismic hazard is important. The present work is based on a numerical modeling approach. Firstly, a database is created to gather and list information related to seismology, tectonic, abnormal sea level's variations recorded/observed, submarine and coastal topographic data for the western part of the Mediterranean margin. This database helped to propose series of scenario that could trigger tsunami in the Mediterranean sea. Seismic moment, rake and focal depth are the major parameters that constrain the modeling input seismic data. Then, the undersea earthquakes modeling and the seabed deformations are computed with a program adapted from the rngchn code based on Okada's analytic equations. The last task of this work consisted to calculate the initial water surface displacement and simulate the triggered tsunami. Generation and propagation of induced seismic waves were estimated with another program adapted from the swan code for the resolution of the hydrodynamic shallow water equations. The results obtained will be firstly presented. Then, based on seismic waves travel times and run up height values, a large discussion will focus on the tsunami alert program for cities marked by fast urban development.

Earthquake- and tsunami-induced ionospheric disturbances detected by GPS total electron content observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsugawa, T.; Nishioka, M.; Matsumura, M.; Shinagawa, H.; Maruyama, T.; Ogawa, T.; Saito, A.; Otsuka, Y.; Nagatsuma, T.; Murata, T.

2012-12-01

Ionospheric disturbances induced by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami were studied by the high-resolution GPS total electron content (TEC) observation in Japan and in the world. The initial ionospheric disturbance appeared as sudden depletions by about 6 TEC unit (20%) about seven minutes after the earthquake onset, near the epicenter. From 06:00UT to 06:15UT, circular waves with short propagation distance propagated in the radial direction in the propagation velocity of 3,457, 783, 423 m/s for the first, second, third peak, respectively. Following these waves, concentric waves with long propagation distance appeared to propagate at the velocity of 138-288 m/s. In the vicinity of the epicenter, shortperiod oscillations with period of about 4 minutes were observed after 06:00 UT for 3 hours or more. We focus on the the circular and concentric waves in this paper. The circular or concentric structures indicate that these ionospheric disturbances had a point source. The center of these structures, termed as "ionospheric epicenter", was located around 37.5 deg N of latitude and 144.0 deg E of longitude, 170 km far from the epicenter to the southeast direction, and corresponded to the tsunami source. Comparing to the results of a numerical simulation using non-hydrostatic compressible atmosphere-ionosphere model, the first peak of circular wave would be caused by the acoustic waves generated from the propagating Rayleigh wave. The second and third waves would be caused by atmospheric gravity waves excited in the lower ionosphere due to the acoustic wave propagations from the tsunami source. The fourth and following waves are considered to be caused by the atmospheric gravity waves induced by the wavefronts of traveling tsunami. Long-propagation of these TEC disturbances were studied also using high-resolution GPS-TEC data in North America and Europe. Medium-scale wave structures with wavelengths of several 100 km appeared in the west part of North America at the almost same time as the tsunami arrival. On the other hand, no remarkable wave structure was observed in Europe. We will introduce these observational results and discuss about the generation and propagation mechanisms of the ionospheric disturbances induced by the earthquake and tsunami.

The 2014 Lake Askja rockslide tsunami - optimization of landslide parameters comparing numerical simulations with observed run-up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sif Gylfadóttir, Sigríður; Kim, Jihwan; Kristinn Helgason, Jón; Brynjólfsson, Sveinn; Höskuldsson, Ármann; Jóhannesson, Tómas; Bonnevie Harbitz, Carl; Løvholt, Finn

2016-04-01

The Askja central volcano is located in the Northern Volcanic Zone of Iceland. Within the main caldera an inner caldera was formed in an eruption in 1875 and over the next 40 years it gradually subsided and filled up with water, forming Lake Askja. A large rockslide was released from the Southeast margin of the inner caldera into Lake Askja on 21 July 2014. The release zone was located from 150 m to 350 m above the water level and measured 800 m across. The volume of the rockslide is estimated to have been 15-30 million m3, of which 10.5 million m3 was deposited in the lake, raising the water level by almost a meter. The rockslide caused a large tsunami that traveled across the lake, and inundated the shores around the entire lake after 1-2 minutes. The vertical run-up varied typically between 10-40 m, but in some locations close to the impact area it ranged up to 70 m. Lake Askja is a popular destination visited by tens of thousands of tourists every year but as luck would have it, the event occurred near midnight when no one was in the area. Field surveys conducted in the months following the event resulted in an extensive dataset. The dataset contains e.g. maximum inundation, high-resolution digital elevation model of the entire inner caldera, as well as a high resolution bathymetry of the lake displaying the landslide deposits. Using these data, a numerical model of the Lake Askja landslide and tsunami was developed using GeoClaw, a software package for numerical analysis of geophysical flow problems. Both the shallow water version and an extension of GeoClaw that includes dispersion, was employed to simulate the wave generation, propagation, and run-up due to the rockslide plunging into the lake. The rockslide was modeled as a block that was allowed to stretch during run-out after entering the lake. An optimization approach was adopted to constrain the landslide parameters through inverse modeling by comparing the calculated inundation with the observed run-up. By taking the minimum mean squared error between simulations and observations, a set of best-fit landslide parameters (friction parameters, initial speed and block size) were determined. While we were able to obtain a close fit with observations using the dispersive model, it proved impossible to constrain the landslide parameters to fit the data using a shallow water model. As a consequence, we conclude that in the present case, dispersive effects were crucial in obtaining the correct inundation pattern, and that a shallow water model produced large artificial offsets.

A well-balanced meshless tsunami propagation and inundation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecht, Rüdiger; Bihlo, Alexander; MacLachlan, Scott; Behrens, Jörn

2018-05-01

We present a novel meshless tsunami propagation and inundation model. We discretize the nonlinear shallow-water equations using a well-balanced scheme relying on radial basis function based finite differences. For the inundation model, radial basis functions are used to extrapolate the dry region from nearby wet points. Numerical results against standard one- and two-dimensional benchmarks are presented.

Comparison between real and modeled maregraphic data obtained using a simple dislocation model of the 27.02.2010 Chilian seismic source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roger, J.; Simao, N.; Ruegg, J.-C.; Briole, P.; Allgeyer, S.

2010-05-01

On the 27th February 2010, a magnitude Mw=8.8 earthquake shook a wide part of Chile. It was the result of a release of energy due to a rupture on the subduction fault plane of the Pacific oceanic plate beneath the South-American plate. It generated a widespread tsunami that struck the whole Pacific Ocean Coasts. In addition to the numerous casualties and destructions fathered by the earthquake itself, the tsunami reached several meters high in some near-field locations inundating important urban areas (for example in Talcahano). In some far-field places as in the Marquesas Islands (FR), it reached several meters high too. This tsunami has been recorded by numerous coastal tide gages and DART buoys and, more particularly, some sea level records are available in the rupture area (Valparaiso, Talcahano, Arica, Ancud, Corral, Coquimbo). The aim of this study is to use a simple dislocation model determined from a moment tensor solution, aftershocks locations and GPS measurements, to calculate the initial offshore bottom deformation. This deformation is introduced in a tsunami propagation code to produce synthetic mareogramms on specific points that are compared to the real recorded maregraphic data.

Reducing the age range of tsunami deposits by 14C dating of rip-up clasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizawa, Takashi; Goto, Kazuhisa; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyairi, Yosuke; Sawada, Chikako; Takada, Keita

2018-02-01

Erosion by tsunami waves represents an important issue when determining the age of a tsunami deposit, because the age is usually estimated using dating of sediments above and below the deposit. Dating of material within the tsunami deposit, if suitable material is obtainable, can be used to further constrain its age. Eroded sediments are sometimes incorporated within the tsunami deposits as rip-up clasts, which might therefore be used as minimum age dating material. However, the single calibrated 14C age often shows a wide age range because of fluctuations in the calibration curve. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether rip-up clast measurements are useful to constrain the depositional age of tsunami deposits, or not. In this study, we carried out high-resolution 14C dating of tsunami deposits, including rip-up clasts of peat, in Rikuzentakata, northeastern Japan, where numerous rip-up clasts were observed within a tsunami deposit. Sediments above and below the tsunami deposit and a 5 cm large rip-up clast were dated sequentially. Comparison of these dating results with the calibration curve revealed that the clast was inverted. Its age was better constrained based on the stratigraphic order, and we infer that the clast corresponds to approximately 100 years of sedimentation. The oldest age of the clast was consistent with the age of the peat immediately below the tsunami deposit, suggesting that surface sediments probably formed the rip-up clast at the time of the tsunami. Thus, the dating of the rip-up clast was useful to further constrain the depositional age of the tsunami deposit, as we narrowed the tsunami deposit age range by approximately 100 years. Results show that ignoring tsunami-related erosion might lead to overestimation of the tsunami deposit age. For this reason, an appropriate dating site, which is less affected by minor tsunami-related erosion with regards to the paleo-topography, should be explored. We therefore propose a more effective sampling strategy for better age estimation of tsunami deposits.

The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: Promoting Earthquake and Tsunami Resilience on California's North Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L. A.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

2014-12-01

In historic times, Northern California has suffered the greatest losses from tsunamis in the U.S. contiguous 48 states. 39 tsunamis have been recorded in the region since 1933, including five that caused damage. This paper describes the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization formed in 1996 to address the tsunami threat from both near and far sources. It includes representatives from government agencies, public, private and volunteer organizations, academic institutions, and individuals interested in working to reduce tsunami risk. The geographic isolation and absence of scientific agencies such as the USGS and CGS in the region, and relatively frequent occurrence of both earthquakes and tsunami events has created a unique role for the RCTWG, with activities ranging from basic research to policy and education and outreach programs. Regional interest in tsunami issues began in the early 1990s when there was relatively little interest in tsunamis elsewhere in the state. As a result, the group pioneered tsunami messaging and outreach programs. Beginning in 2008, the RCTWG has partnered with the National Weather Service and the California Office of Emergency Services in conducting the annual "live code" tsunami communications tests, the only area outside of Alaska to do so. In 2009, the RCTWG joined with the Southern California Earthquake Alliance and the Bay Area Earthquake Alliance to form the Earthquake Country Alliance to promote a coordinated and consistent approach to both earthquake and tsunami preparedness throughout the state. The RCTWG has produced and promoted a variety of preparedness projects including hazard mapping and sign placement, an annual "Earthquake - Tsunami Room" at County Fairs, public service announcements and print material, assisting in TsunamiReady community recognition, and facilitating numerous multi-agency, multidiscipline coordinated exercises, and community evacuation drills. Nine assessment surveys from 1993 to 2013 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of tsunami hazards. Over the twenty-year period covered by the surveys, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 90 percent and awareness of the Cascadia subduction zone increased from 16 to 60 percent.

How can coastal parks contain the destructive impact of a tsunami? A numerical approach to the understanding of tsunami-triggered waves in the presence of coastal hills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marras, Simone; Suckale, Jenny; Lunghino, Brent; Giraldo, Francis X.; Constantinescu, Emil

2016-04-01

From the now common idea that vegetated shores may reduce the power of a destructive storm surge, an increasing number of coastal communities around the world are extending this thinking to the design of coastal parks as a way to limit the impact of a tsunami. Tsunamis and storm surges are significantly different in nature and behavior, and it is implausible that vegetation alone could act as a tsunami mitigation tool. A more comprehensive approach relies on the installation of vegetated, scattered mitigation hills in front of the shore to deviate the incoming tsunami wave instead. The analysis of how natural obstacles affect non-linear tsunami waves is still very limited and consists mostly of one-dimensional studies (e.g., [1, 2]). To that end, this work aims to extend the analysis of the interaction of waves of different shapes (solitary wave, N-wave), sizes (amplitude and wave length), and configurations with large obstacles to two-dimensional flows. The following metrics are used for a quantification of the results: 1) tsunami run-up and run-down and 2) a measure of channelization (via the flow kinetic energy and discharge). First, preliminary results show that the configuration of the obstacles is consequential as long as the amplitude of the incoming wave is large enough relative to the obstacles. In second instance, we also observed that the channelization of the flow between two neighboring obstacles may not be greatly affected solely by the distance between obstacles, but must be analyzed in relationship to the initial wave/wave train. This study is based on the numerical solution of the viscous shallow water equations via high order discontinuous finite elements method (DG) using a quadrilateral version of the model described in [3] and with fully implicit time integration [4]. Large and relatively massive hills appear to be a better solution than any offshore concrete walls, which have shown to possibly enhance the tsunami catastrophic power rather than reducing it. Nevertheless, without a thorough understanding of the behavior of non-linear waves when they approach coastal configurations such as hills, coastal parks may still be far from a safe reality. References [1] P. Lynett (2007) "Effect of shallow water obstruction on long wave run-up and overland flow velocity" J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Engrg. 136:455-462 [2] G. F. Carrier, T. T. Wu, H. Yeh (2003) "Tsunami run-up and draw-down on a plane beach" J. Fluid Mech. 475:79-99. [3] F. X. Giraldo and M. Restelli (2010) "High-order semi- implicit time-integrators for a triangular discontinuous Galerkin oceanic shallow water model" Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids, 63:1077-1102. [4] F X. Giraldo, J F.. Kelly, and E. Constantinescu. "Implicit-explicit formulations of a three-dimensional Nonhydrostatic Unified Model of the Atmosphere (NUMA)" SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 35:1162-1194, 2013.

Tsunami Inundation Mapping for the Upper East Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehranirad, B.; Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Callahan, J. A.; Shi, F.; Banihashemi, S.; Grilli, S. T.; Grilli, A. R.; Tajalli Bakhsh, T. S.; O'Reilly, C.

2014-12-01

We describe the modeling of tsunami inundation for the Upper US East Coast (USEC) from Ocean City, MD up to Nantucket, MA. and the development of inundation maps for use in emergency management and hazard analysis. Seven tsunami sources were used as initial conditions in order to develop inundation maps based on a Probable Maximum Tsunami approach. Of the seven, two coseismic sources were used; the first being a large earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench, in the well-known Caribbean Subduction Zone, and the second, an earthquake close to the Azores Gibraltar plate boundary known as the source of the biggest tsunami recorded in the North Atlantic Basin. In addition, four Submarine Mass Failure (SMF) sources located at different locations on the edge of the shelf break were simulated. Finally, the Cumbre Vieja Volcanic (CVV) collapse, located in the Canary Islands, was studied. For this presentation, we discuss modeling results for nearshore tsunami propagation and onshore inundation. A fully nonlinear Boussinesq model (FUNWAVE-TVD) is used to capture the characteristics of tsunami propagation, both nearshore and inland. In addition to the inundation line as the main result of this work, other tsunami quantities such as inundation depth and maximum velocities will be discussed for the whole USEC area. Moreover, a discussion of most vulnerable areas to a possible tsunami in the USEC will be provided. For example, during the inundation simulation process, it was observed that coastal environments with barrier islands are among the hot spots to be significantly impacted by a tsunami. As a result, areas like western Long Island, NY and Atlantic City, NJ are some of the locations that will get extremely affected in case of a tsunami occurrence in the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, the differences between various tsunami sources modeled here will be presented. Although inundation lines for different sources usually follow a similar pattern, there are clear distinctions between the inundation depth and other tsunami features in different areas. Figure below shows the inundation depth for surrounding area of the Ocean City, MD. Figure (a) and (b) are the envelope inundation depth for SMF and coseismic sources. Figure (C) shows the inundation depth for CVV source, which clearly has the largest magnitude amongst the sources studied for this work.

Tsunami field survey in French Polynesia of the 2015 Chilean earthquake Mw = 8.2 and what we learned.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamelot, Anthony; Reymond, Dominique; Savigny, Jonathan; Hyvernaud, Olivier

2016-04-01

The tsunami generated by the earthquake of magnitude Mw=8.2 near the coast of central Chile on the 16th September 2015 was observed on 7 tide gauges distributed over the five archipelagoes composing French Polynesia, a territory as large as Europe. We'll sum up all the observations of the tsunami and the field survey done in Tahiti (Society islands) and Hiva-Oa (Marquesas islands) to evaluate the preliminary tsunami forecast tool (MERIT) and the detailed tsunami forecast tool (COASTER) of the French Polynesian Tsunami Warning Center. The preliminary tool forecasted a maximal tsunami height between 0.5m to 2.3 m all over the Marquesas Islands. But only the island of Hiva-Oa had a tsunami forecast greater than 1 meter especially in the Tahauku Bay well known for its local response due to its resonance properties. In Tahauku bay, the tide gauge located at the entrance of the bay recorded a maximal tsunami height above mean sea level ~ 1.7 m; and we measured at the bottom of the bay a run-up about 2.8 m at 388 m inland from the shoreline in the river bed, and a run-up of 2.5 m located 155 m inland. The multi-grid simulation over Tahiti was done one hour after the origin time of the earthquake and gave a very localized tsunami impact on the North shore. Our forecast indicated an inundation about 10 m inland that lead Civil Authorities to evacuate 6 houses. It was the first operational use of this new fine grid covering the north part of Tahiti that is not protected by a coral reef. So we were attentive to the feed back of the alert that confirm the forecast of the maximal height arrival 1 hour after the first arrival. The tsunami warning system forecast well strong impact as well as low impact as long as we have an early robust description of the seismic parameters and fine grids about 10 m spatial resolution to simulate tsunami impact. In January of 2016 we are able to forecast tsunami heights for 72 points located over 35 islands of French Polynesia.

Field survey of the 1 April 2014 Iquique tsunami along the coasts of Chile and Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, M.; Fritz, H. M.

2014-12-01

On 1 April, 2014 a magnitude Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred off the coast of northern Chile less than 100 km NW of Iquique within a region of historic quiescence termed the northern Chile seismic gap. The ensuing tsunami inundation caused mostly minor damage centered in Iquique and neighbouring stretches of coastline. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from the past 1868 and 1877 tsunamis in the region along with the recent 2010 Maule tsunami, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. There were no tsunami victims, while a handful of fatalities were associated to the earthquake and the tsunami evacuation. The local scientist deployed in the morning hours to start the tsunami survey in Iquique on the day after the earthquake. The international scientist joined the local effort from April 6 to 11. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns, performance of the navigation infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The ITST covered a 700 km stretch of coastline from the Mejillones Peninsula (23.5° S) north of Antofagasta in Chile up to Vila Vila (18.1° S) in southern Peru. We surveyed 30 locations with differential GPS and laser range finders. The tsunami impact peaked in the vicinity of Iquique exceeding 4 m in tsunami height. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along the coastlines of Chile and Peru both at local and regional scales. The tsunami occurred in the evening hours limiting the availability of eyewitness video footages. Observations from the 2014 Chile tsunami are compared against the 1868, 1877 and 2010 Chile tsunamis. Given the magnitude of the 1 April 2014 earthquake the tsunami could have been significantly larger. However the absence of a massive tsunami may mislead residents in the future to believe another minor tsunami may be generated after an earthquake of similar magnitude. Hence the April fool's day event poses significant challenges to community-based education. The team interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and educated residents about tsunami hazards since awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from locally generated tsunamis.

Tsunami Speed Variations in Density-stratified Compressible Global Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watada, S.

2013-12-01

Recent tsunami observations in the deep ocean have accumulated unequivocal evidence that tsunami traveltime delays compared with the linear long-wave tsunami simulations occur during tsunami propagation in the deep ocean. The delay is up to 2% of the tsunami traveltime. Watada et al. [2013] investigated the cause of the delay using the normal mode theory of tsunamis and attributed the delay to the compressibility of seawater, the elasticity of the solid earth, and the gravitational potential change associated with mass motion during the passage of tsunamis. Tsunami speed variations in the deep ocean caused by seawater density stratification is investigated using a newly developed propagator matrix method that is applicable to seawater with depth-variable sound speeds and density gradients. For a 4-km deep ocean, the total tsunami speed reduction is 0.45% compared with incompressible homogeneous seawater; two thirds of the reduction is due to elastic energy stored in the water and one third is due to water density stratification mainly by hydrostatic compression. Tsunami speeds are computed for global ocean density and sound speed profiles and characteristic structures are discussed. Tsunami speed reductions are proportional to ocean depth with small variations, except for in warm Mediterranean seas. The impacts of seawater compressibility and the elasticity effect of the solid earth on tsunami traveltime should be included for precise modeling of trans-oceanic tsunamis. Data locations where a vertical ocean profile deeper than 2500 m is available in World Ocean Atlas 2009. The dark gray area indicates the Pacific Ocean defined in WOA09. a) Tsunami speed variations. Red, gray and black bars represent global, Pacific, and Mediterranean Sea, respectively. b) Regression lines of the tsunami velocity reduction for all oceans. c)Vertical ocean profiles at grid points indicated by the stars in Figure 1.

Tsunami waves extensively resurfaced the shorelines of an early Martian ocean

PubMed Central

Rodriguez, J. Alexis P.; Fairén, Alberto G.; Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Zarroca, Mario; Linares, Rogelio; Platz, Thomas; Komatsu, Goro; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Yan, Jianguo; Gulick, Virginia; Higuchi, Kana; Baker, Victor R.; Glines, Natalie

2016-01-01

It has been proposed that ~3.4 billion years ago an ocean fed by enormous catastrophic floods covered most of the Martian northern lowlands. However, a persistent problem with this hypothesis is the lack of definitive paleoshoreline features. Here, based on geomorphic and thermal image mapping in the circum-Chryse and northwestern Arabia Terra regions of the northern plains, in combination with numerical analyses, we show evidence for two enormous tsunami events possibly triggered by bolide impacts, resulting in craters ~30 km in diameter and occurring perhaps a few million years apart. The tsunamis produced widespread littoral landforms, including run-up water-ice-rich and bouldery lobes, which extended tens to hundreds of kilometers over gently sloping plains and boundary cratered highlands, as well as backwash channels where wave retreat occurred on highland-boundary surfaces. The ice-rich lobes formed in association with the younger tsunami, showing that their emplacement took place following a transition into a colder global climatic regime that occurred after the older tsunami event. We conclude that, on early Mars, tsunamis played a major role in generating and resurfacing coastal terrains. PMID:27196957

Tsunami waves extensively resurfaced the shorelines of an early Martian ocean.

PubMed

Rodriguez, J Alexis P; Fairén, Alberto G; Tanaka, Kenneth L; Zarroca, Mario; Linares, Rogelio; Platz, Thomas; Komatsu, Goro; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S; Yan, Jianguo; Gulick, Virginia; Higuchi, Kana; Baker, Victor R; Glines, Natalie

2016-05-19

It has been proposed that ~3.4 billion years ago an ocean fed by enormous catastrophic floods covered most of the Martian northern lowlands. However, a persistent problem with this hypothesis is the lack of definitive paleoshoreline features. Here, based on geomorphic and thermal image mapping in the circum-Chryse and northwestern Arabia Terra regions of the northern plains, in combination with numerical analyses, we show evidence for two enormous tsunami events possibly triggered by bolide impacts, resulting in craters ~30 km in diameter and occurring perhaps a few million years apart. The tsunamis produced widespread littoral landforms, including run-up water-ice-rich and bouldery lobes, which extended tens to hundreds of kilometers over gently sloping plains and boundary cratered highlands, as well as backwash channels where wave retreat occurred on highland-boundary surfaces. The ice-rich lobes formed in association with the younger tsunami, showing that their emplacement took place following a transition into a colder global climatic regime that occurred after the older tsunami event. We conclude that, on early Mars, tsunamis played a major role in generating and resurfacing coastal terrains.

Multidimensional Approach for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: Framing the Territorial Impacts in Two Municipalities in Portugal.

PubMed

Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Barros, José Leandro; Santos, Angela

2017-04-01

This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami-inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Developing a global tsunami propagation database and its application for coastal hazard assessments in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, N.; Tang, L.; Titov, V.; Newman, J. C.; Dong, S.; Wei, Y.

2013-12-01

The tragedies of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have increased awareness of tsunami hazards for many nations, including China. The low land level and high population density of China's coastal areas place it at high risk for tsunami hazards. Recent research (Komatsubara and Fujiwara, 2007) highlighted concerns of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Nankai trench, which may affect China's coasts not only in South China Sea, but also in the East Sea and Yellow Sea. Here we present our work in progress towards developing a global tsunami propagation database that can be used for hazard assessments by many countries. The propagation scenarios are computed by using NOAA's MOST numerical model. Each scenario represents a typical Mw 7.5 earthquake with predefined earthquake parameters (Gica et al., 2008). The model grid was interpolated from ETOPO1 at 4 arc-min resolution, covering -80° to72°N and 0 to 360°E. We use this database for preliminary tsunami hazard assessment along China's coastlines.

Local tsunamis and earthquake source parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Dmowska, Renata; Saltzman, Barry

1999-01-01

This chapter establishes the relationship among earthquake source parameters and the generation, propagation, and run-up of local tsunamis. In general terms, displacement of the seafloor during the earthquake rupture is modeled using the elastic dislocation theory for which the displacement field is dependent on the slip distribution, fault geometry, and the elastic response and properties of the medium. Specifically, nonlinear long-wave theory governs the propagation and run-up of tsunamis. A parametric study is devised to examine the relative importance of individual earthquake source parameters on local tsunamis, because the physics that describes tsunamis from generation through run-up is complex. Analysis of the source parameters of various tsunamigenic earthquakes have indicated that the details of the earthquake source, namely, nonuniform distribution of slip along the fault plane, have a significant effect on the local tsunami run-up. Numerical methods have been developed to address the realistic bathymetric and shoreline conditions. The accuracy of determining the run-up on shore is directly dependent on the source parameters of the earthquake, which provide the initial conditions used for the hydrodynamic models.

Seismogeodesy and Rapid Earthquake and Tsunami Source Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar Moctezuma, Diego

This dissertation presents an optimal combination algorithm for strong motion seismograms and regional high rate GPS recordings. This seismogeodetic solution produces estimates of ground motion that recover the whole seismic spectrum, from the permanent deformation to the Nyquist frequency of the accelerometer. This algorithm will be demonstrated and evaluated through outdoor shake table tests and recordings of large earthquakes, notably the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki events. This dissertations will also show that strong motion velocity and displacement data obtained from the seismogeodetic solution can be instrumental to quickly determine basic parameters of the earthquake source. We will show how GPS and seismogeodetic data can produce rapid estimates of centroid moment tensors, static slip inversions, and most importantly, kinematic slip inversions. Throughout the dissertation special emphasis will be placed on how to compute these source models with minimal interaction from a network operator. Finally we will show that the incorporation of off-shore data such as ocean-bottom pressure and RTK-GPS buoys can better-constrain the shallow slip of large subduction events. We will demonstrate through numerical simulations of tsunami propagation that the earthquake sources derived from the seismogeodetic and ocean-based sensors is detailed enough to provide a timely and accurate assessment of expected tsunami intensity immediately following a large earthquake.

Performance Benchmarking of tsunami-HySEA for NTHMP Inundation Mapping Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González Vida, Jose M.; Castro, Manuel J.; Ortega Acosta, Sergio; Macías, Jorge; Millán, Alejandro

2016-04-01

According to the 2006 USA Tsunami Warning and Education Act, the tsunami inundation models used in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) projects must be validated against some existing standard problems (see [OAR-PMEL-135], [Proceedings of the 2011 NTHMP Model Benchmarking Workshop]). These Benchmark Problems (BPs) cover different tsunami processes related to the inundation stage that the models must meet to achieve the NTHMP Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS) approval. Tsunami-HySEA solves the two-dimensional shallow-water system using a high-order path-conservative finite volume method. Values of h, qx and qy in each grid cell represent cell averages of the water depth and momentum components. The numerical scheme is conservative for both mass and momentum in flat bathymetries, and, in general, is mass preserving for arbitrary bathymetries. Tsunami-HySEA implements a PVM-type method that uses the fastest and the slowest wave speeds, similar to HLL method (see [Castro et al, 2012]). A general overview of the derivation of the high order methods is performed in [Castro et al, 2009]. For very big domains, Tsunami-HySEA also implements a two-step scheme similar to leap-frog for the propagation step and a second-order TVD-WAF flux-limiter scheme described in [de la Asunción et al, 2013] for the inundation step. Here, we present the results obtained by the model tsunami-HySEA against the proposed BPs. BP1: Solitary wave on a simple beach (non-breaking - analytic experiment). BP4: Solitary wave on a simple beach (breaking - laboratory experiment). BP6: Solitary wave on a conical island (laboratory experiment). BP7 - Runup on Monai Valley beach (laboratory experiment) and BP9: Okushiri Island tsunami (field experiment). The analysis and results of Tsunami-HySEA model are presented, concluding that the model meets the required objectives for all the BP proposed. References - Castro M.J., E.D. Fernández, A.M. Ferreiro, A. García, C. Parés (2009). High order extension of Roe schemes for two dimensional nonconservative hyperbolic systems. J. Sci. Comput. 39(1), 67-114. - Castro M.J., E.D. Fernández-Nieto (2012). A class of computationally fast first order finite volume solvers: PVM methods. SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 34, A2173-2196. - de la Asunción M., M.J. Castro, E.D. Fernández-Nieto, J.M. Mantas, et al. Efficient GPU implementation of a two waves TVD-WAF method for the two-dimensional one layer shallow water system on structured meshes (2013). Computers & Fluids 80, 441-452. - OAR PMEL-135. Synolakis, C.E., E.N. Bernard, V.V. Titov, U. Kânoǧlu, and F.I. González (2007). Standards, criteria, and procedures for NOAA evaluation of tsunami numerical models. NOAA Tech. Memo. NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 55 pp. - Proceedings and results of the 2011 NTHMP Model Benchmarking Workshop. NOAA Special Report. July 2012. Acknowledgements This research has been partially supported by the Junta de Andalucía research project TESELA (P11-RNM7069), the Spanish Government Research project DAIFLUID (MTM2012-38383-C02-01) and the Unit of Numerical Methods (UNM) of the Research Support Central Services (SCAI) of the University of Málaga.

Observation and simulation of AGW in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunitsyn, Vyacheslav; Kholodov, Alexander; Andreeva, Elena; Nesterov, Ivan; Padokhin, Artem; Vorontsov, Artem

2014-05-01

Examples are presented of satellite observations and imaging of AGW and related phenomena in space travelling ionospheric disturbances (TID). The structure of AGW perturbations was reconstructed by satellite radio tomography (RT) based on the signals of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The experiments use different GNSS, both low-orbiting (Russian Tsikada and American Transit) and high-orbiting (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, Beidou). The examples of RT imaging of TIDs and AGWs from anthropogenic sources such as ground explosions, rocket launching, heating the ionosphere by high-power radio waves are presented. In the latter case, the corresponding AGWs and TIDs were generated in response to the modulation in the power of the heating wave. The natural AGW-like wave disturbances are frequently observed in the atmosphere and ionosphere in the form of variations in density and electron concentration. These phenomena are caused by the influence of the near-space environment, atmosphere, and surface phenomena including long-period vibrations of the Earth's surface, earthquakes, explosions, temperature heating, seisches, tsunami waves, etc. Examples of experimental RT reconstructions of wave disturbances associated with the earthquakes and tsunami waves are presented, and RT images of TIDs caused by the variations in the corpuscular ionization are demonstrated. The results of numerical modeling of AGW generation by some surface and volume sources are discussed. The milli-Hertz AGWs generated by these sources induce perturbations with a typical scale of a few hundred of kilometers at the heights of the middle atmosphere and ionosphere. The numerical modeling is based on the solution of equations of geophysical hydrodynamics. The results of the numerical simulations agree with the observations. The authors acknowledge the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants 14-05-00855 and 13-05-01122), grant of the President of Russian Federation MK-2670.2014.5 and Lomonosov Moscow State University Program of Development.

Performance of Landslide-HySEA tsunami model for NTHMP benchmarking validation process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias, Jorge

2017-04-01

In its FY2009 Strategic Plan, the NTHMP required that all numerical tsunami inundation models be verified as accurate and consistent through a model benchmarking process. This was completed in 2011, but only for seismic tsunami sources and in a limited manner for idealized solid underwater landslides. Recent work by various NTHMP states, however, has shown that landslide tsunami hazard may be dominant along significant parts of the US coastline, as compared to hazards from other tsunamigenic sources. To perform the above-mentioned validation process, a set of candidate benchmarks were proposed. These benchmarks are based on a subset of available laboratory date sets for solid slide experiments and deformable slide experiments, and include both submarine and subaerial slides. A benchmark based on a historic field event (Valdez, AK, 1964) close the list of proposed benchmarks. The Landslide-HySEA model has participated in the workshop that was organized at Texas A&M University - Galveston, on January 9-11, 2017. The aim of this presentation is to show some of the numerical results obtained for Landslide-HySEA in the framework of this benchmarking validation/verification effort. Acknowledgements. This research has been partially supported by the Junta de Andalucía research project TESELA (P11-RNM7069), the Spanish Government Research project SIMURISK (MTM2015-70490-C02-01-R) and Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech. The GPU computations were performed at the Unit of Numerical Methods (University of Malaga).

Numerical Modeling and Forecasting of Strong Sumatra Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, H. L.; Yin, C.

2007-12-01

ESyS-Crustal, a finite element based computational model and software has been developed and applied to simulate the complex nonlinear interacting fault systems with the goal to accurately predict earthquakes and tsunami generation. With the available tectonic setting and GPS data around the Sumatra region, the simulation results using the developed software have clearly indicated that the shallow part of the subduction zone in the Sumatra region between latitude 6S and 2N has been locked for a long time, and remained locked even after the Northern part of the zone underwent a major slip event resulting into the infamous Boxing Day tsunami. Two strong earthquakes that occurred in the distant past in this region (between 6S and 1S) in 1797 (M8.2) and 1833 (M9.0) respectively are indicative of the high potential for very large destructive earthquakes to occur in this region with relatively long periods of quiescence in between. The results have been presented in the 5th ACES International Workshop in 2006 before the recent 2007 Sumatra earthquakes occurred which exactly fell into the predicted zone (see the following web site for ACES2006 and detailed presentation file through workshop agenda). The preliminary simulation results obtained so far have shown that there seem to be a few obvious events around the previously locked zone before it is totally ruptured, but apparently no indication of a giant earthquake similar to the 2004 M9 event in the near future which is believed to happen by several earthquake scientists. Further detailed simulations will be carried out and presented in the meeting.

Rescue, Archival and Discovery of Tsunami Events on Marigrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eble, M. C.; Wright, L. M.; Stroker, K. J.; Sweeney, A.; Lancaster, M.

2017-12-01

The Big Earth Data Initiative made possible the reformatting of paper marigram records on which were recorded measurements of the 1946, 1952, 1960, and 1964 tsunamis generated in the Pacific Ocean. Data contained within each record were determined to be invaluable for tsunami researchers and operational agencies with a responsibility for issuing warnings during a tsunami event. All marigrams were carefully digitized and metadata were generated to form numerical datasets in order to provide the tsunami and other research and application-driven communities with quality data. Data were then packaged as CF-compliant netCDF datafiles and submitted to the NOAA Centers for Environmental Information for long-term stewardship, archival, and public discovery of both original scanned images and data in digital netCDF and CSC formats. The PNG plots of each time series were generated and included with data packages to provide a visual representation of the numerical data sets. ISO-compliant metadata were compiled for the collection at the event level and individual DOIs were minted for each of the four events included in this project. The procedure followed to reformat each record in this four-event subset of the larger NCEI scanned marigram inventory is presented and discussed. The practical use of these data is presented to highlight that even infrequent measurements of tsunamis hold information that may potentially help constrain earthquake rupture area, provide estimates of earthquake co-seismic slip distribution, identify subsidence or uplift, and significantly increase the holdings of situ data available for tsunami model validation. These same data may also prove valuable to the broader global tide community for validation and further development of tide models and for investigation into the stability of tidal harmonic constants. Data reformatted as part of this project are PARR compliant and meet the requirements for Data Management, Discoverability, Accessibility, Documentation, Readability, and Data Preservation and Stewardship as per the Big Earth Data Initiative.

A Self-Consistent Fault Slip Model for the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Lay, Thorne

2018-02-01

The unprecedented geophysical and hydrographic data sets from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami have facilitated numerous modeling and inversion analyses for a wide range of dislocation models. Significant uncertainties remain in the slip distribution as well as the possible contribution of tsunami excitation from submarine slumping or anelastic wedge deformation. We seek a self-consistent model for the primary teleseismic and tsunami observations through an iterative approach that begins with downsampling of a finite fault model inverted from global seismic records. Direct adjustment of the fault displacement guided by high-resolution forward modeling of near-field tsunami waveform and runup measurements improves the features that are not satisfactorily accounted for by the seismic wave inversion. The results show acute sensitivity of the runup to impulsive tsunami waves generated by near-trench slip. The adjusted finite fault model is able to reproduce the DART records across the Pacific Ocean in forward modeling of the far-field tsunami as well as the global seismic records through a finer-scale subfault moment- and rake-constrained inversion, thereby validating its ability to account for the tsunami and teleseismic observations without requiring an exotic source. The upsampled final model gives reasonably good fits to onshore and offshore geodetic observations albeit early after-slip effects and wedge faulting that cannot be reliably accounted for. The large predicted slip of over 20 m at shallow depth extending northward to 39.7°N indicates extensive rerupture and reduced seismic hazard of the 1896 tsunami earthquake zone, as inferred to varying extents by several recent joint and tsunami-only inversions.

Identification and characterization of tsunami deposits off southeast coast of India from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: Rock magnetic and geochemical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veerasingam, S.; Venkatachalapathy, R.; Basavaiah, N.; Ramkumar, T.; Venkatramanan, S.; Deenadayalan, K.

2014-06-01

The December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) had a major impact on the geomorphology and sedimentology of the east coast of India. Estimation of the magnitude of the tsunami from its deposits is a challenging topic to be developed in studies on tsunami hazard assessment. Two core sediments (C1 and C2) from Nagapattinam, southeast coast of India were subjected to textural, mineral, geochemical and rock-magnetic measurements. In both cores, three zones (zone I, II and III) have been distinguished based on mineralogical, geochemical and magnetic data. Zone II is featured by peculiar rock-magnetic, textural, mineralogical and geochemical signatures in both sediment cores that we interpret to correspond to the 2004 IOT deposit. Textural, mineralogical, geochemical and rock-magnetic investigations showed that the tsunami deposit is featured by relative enrichment in sand, quartz, feldspar, carbonate, SiO 2, TiO 2, K 2O and CaO and by a depletion in clay and iron oxides. These results point to a dilution of reworked ferromagnetic particles into a huge volume of paramagnetic materials, similar to what has been described in other nearshore tsunami deposits (Font et al. 2010). Correlation analysis elucidated the relationships among the textural, mineral, geochemical and magnetic parameters, and suggests that most of the quartz-rich coarse sediments have been transported offshore by the tsunami wave. These results agreed well with the previously published numerical model of tsunami induced sediment transport off southeast coast of India and can be used for future comparative studies on tsunami deposits.

Searching for a paleotsunami record in the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Selle, S.; Richmond, B. M.; Arcos, M. E. M.; Jaffe, B. E.; Lunghino, B.; Kane, H. H.; Bishop, J. M.; Habel, S. L.

2016-12-01

Historical records of tsunamis over the last 200 years in the state of Hawai'i demonstrate that earthquakes in subduction zones around the Pacific (Aleutian, Kuril-Kamchatka, Chile, Japan, and Alaska) can cause significant tsunami inundation on multiple Hawaiian islands. Deposits found along these subduction zones provide evidence for older tsunamis, but it is unclear if any of these prehistoric far-field events have impacted the Hawaiian islands because no study has successfully correlated Hawaiian paleotsunami deposits between sites or islands. We cored coastal marshlands on Óahu, Maui, and Kauái searching for tsunami deposits in order to determine the viability of extending the record of tsunami inundation in the state of Hawai'i. Sites were selected based on historical tsunami runup, numerical inundation modeling results, the presence of a coastal marsh in close proximity to a sandy shoreline, the extent of undisturbed wetlands, and the breadth of prior geological investigations. Several possible tsunami deposits were identified on the north and northeast shores of Kauái and Óahu as marine sand layers within marsh peat or mud. At some sites, the presence of deposits from the 1946 and 1957 Aleutian tsunamis aided identification of the deeper candidate tsunami deposits. Radiocarbon ages of the deeper sand layers suggest deposition around 800-600 cal yr B.P., which may coincide with a tsunami deposit in the eastern Aleutians that was deposited 660-560 cal yr B.P. (Witter et al., 2016). Further dating and analyses of the deposits is needed to determine whether or not deposition was synchronous on O'ahu and Kaua'i and to determine from sedimentological and micropaleontological characteristics that a tsunami formed the deposits.

Recent Findings on Tsunami Hazards in the Makran Subduction Zone, NW Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, M.; Satake, K.

2014-12-01

We present recent findings on tsunami hazards in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ), NW Indian Ocean, based on the results of tsunami source analyses for two Makran tsunamis of 1945 and 2013. A re-analysis of the source of the 27 November 1945 tsunami in the MSZ showed that the slip needs to be extended to deep waters around the depth contour of 3000 m in order to reproduce the observed tide gauge waveforms at Karachi and Mumbai. On the other hand, coastal uplift report at Ormara (Pakistan) implies that the source fault needs to be extended inland. In comparison to other existing fault models, our fault model is longer and includes a heterogeneous slip with larger maximum slip. The recent tsunami on 24 September 2013 in the Makran region was triggered by an inland Mw 7.7 earthquake. While the main shock and all aftershocks were located inland, a tsunami with a dominant period of around 12 min was recorded on tide gauges and a DART station. We examined different possible sources for this tsunami including a mud volcano, a mud/shale diapir, and a landslide/slump through numerical modeling. Only a submarine slump with a source dimension of 10-15 km and a thickness of around 100 m, located 60-70 km offshore Jiwani (Pakistan) at the water depth of around 2000m, was able to reasonably reproduce the observed tsunami waveforms. In terms of tsunami hazards, analyses of the two tsunamis provide new insights: 1) large runup heights can be generated in the coastal areas due to slip in deep waters, and 2) even an inland earthquake may generate tsunamigenic submarine landslides.

Maritime Tsunami Hazard Assessment in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K. M.

2012-12-01

The California tsunami program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. Basin resonance and geometric amplification are two reasonably well understood mechanisms for local magnification of tsunami impact in harbors, and are generally the mechanisms investigated when estimating the tsunami hazard potential in a port or harbor. On the other hand, our understanding of and predictive ability for currents is lacking. When a free surface flow is forced through a geometric constriction, it is readily expected that the enhanced potential gradient will drive strong, possibly unstable currents and the associated turbulent coherent structures such as "jets" and "whirlpools"; a simple example would be tidal flow through an inlet channel. However, these fundamentals have not been quantitatively connected with respect to understanding tsunami hazards in ports and harbors. A plausible explanation for this oversight is the observation that these features are turbulent phenomena with spatial and temporal scales much smaller than that of a typical tsunami. The ability to model and then validate these currentsdissect them has only recently become available through the evaluation of dozens of eyewitness accounts and hundreds of videos.developed. In this presentation, we will present ongoing work related to the application of such models to quantify the maritime tsunami hazard in select ports and harbors in California. The development of current-based tsunami hazard maps and safe-offshore-depth delineations will be discussed. We will also present an overview of the challenges in modeling tsunami currents, including capture of turbulent dynamics, coupling with tides, and issues with long-duration simulations. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Quantification of uncertainties in the tsunami hazard for Cascadia using statistical emulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillas, S.; Day, S. J.; Joakim, B.

2016-12-01

We present new high resolution tsunami wave propagation and coastal inundation for the Cascadia region in the Pacific Northwest. The coseismic representation in this analysis is novel, and more realistic than in previous studies, as we jointly parametrize multiple aspects of the seabed deformation. Due to the large computational cost of such simulators, statistical emulation is required in order to carry out uncertainty quantification tasks, as emulators efficiently approximate simulators. The emulator replaces the tsunami model VOLNA by a fast surrogate, so we are able to efficiently propagate uncertainties from the source characteristics to wave heights, in order to probabilistically assess tsunami hazard for Cascadia. We employ a new method for the design of the computer experiments in order to reduce the number of runs while maintaining good approximations properties of the emulator. Out of the initial nine parameters, mostly describing the geometry and time variation of the seabed deformation, we drop two parameters since these turn out to not have an influence on the resulting tsunami waves at the coast. We model the impact of another parameter linearly as its influence on the wave heights is identified as linear. We combine this screening approach with the sequential design algorithm MICE (Mutual Information for Computer Experiments), that adaptively selects the input values at which to run the computer simulator, in order to maximize the expected information gain (mutual information) over the input space. As a result, the emulation is made possible and accurate. Starting from distributions of the source parameters that encapsulate geophysical knowledge of the possible source characteristics, we derive distributions of the tsunami wave heights along the coastline.

General Vulnerability and Exposure Profile to Tsunami in Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, R.; Huérfano-Moreno, V.

2012-12-01

The Puerto Rico archipelago, located in the seismically active Caribbean region, has been directly affected by tsunamis in the last two centuries. The M 7.3 tsunamigenic earthquake, which occurred on October 11, 1918, caused $29 million in damage, death of 116 people and 100 residents were reported as missing. Presently, deficiencies on urban planning have induced an increase on the number of vulnerable people living inside the tsunami flood areas. Tsunami-prone areas have been delimited for Puerto Rico based on numerical tsunami modeling. However, the demographic, social and physical (e.g. critical and essential facilities) characteristics of these areas have not been documented in detail. We are conducting a municipality and community-level tsunami vulnerability and exposure study using Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. The results of our study are being integrated into the Puerto Rico Disaster Decision Support Tool (DDST). The DDST is a tool that brings access, at no cost, to a variety of updated geo-referenced information for Puerto Rico. This tool provides internet-based scalable maps that will aid emergency managers and decision-makers on their responsibilities and will improve Puerto Rico communities' resilience against tsunami hazard. This project aims to provide an initial estimate of Puerto Rico vulnerability and exposure to tsunami and brings to the community a technological tool that will help increase their awareness of this hazard and to assist them on their decisions.

Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

2009-04-01

Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of the inundation for a specific area, the wave height at coast at this area and the estimated times of arrival (ETAs) of the waves, caused by one tsunamigenic source with a specific magnitude. These parameters from the several scenarios can overlap each other along the coast and must be combined to get one comprehensive hazard assessment for all possible future tsunamis at the region under observation. The simplest way to derive the inundation probability along the coast using the multiscenario approach is to overlay all scenario inundation results and to determine how often a point on land will be significantly inundated from the various scenarios. But this does not take into account that the used tsunamigenic sources for the modeled scenarios have different likelihoods of causing a tsunami. Hence a statistical analysis of historical data and geophysical investigation results based on numerical modelling results is added to the hazard assessment, which clearly improves the significance of the hazard assessment. For this purpose the present method is developed and contains a complex logical combination of the diverse probabilities assessed like probability of occurrence for different earthquake magnitudes at different localities, probability of occurrence for a specific wave height at the coast and the probability for every point on land likely to get hit by a tsunami. The values are combined by a logical tree technique and quantified by statistical analysis of historical data and of the tsunami modelling results as mentioned before. This results in a tsunami inundation probability map covering the South West Coast of Indonesia which nevertheless shows a significant spatial diversity offering a good base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. Keywords: tsunami hazard assessment, tsunami modelling, probabilistic analysis, early warning

The search for geologic evidence of distant-source tsunamis using new field data in California: Chapter C in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Rick; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Jaffe, Bruce; Richmond, Bruce; Peters, Robert; Graehl, Nick; Kelsey, Harvey; Leeper, Robert; Watt, Steve; McGann, Mary; Hoirup, Don F.; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James; Caldwell, Dylan; Loofbourrow, Casey

2014-01-01

A statewide assessment for geological evidence of tsunamis, primarily from distant-source events, found tsunami deposits at several locations, though evidence was absent at most locations evaluated. Several historical distant-source tsunamis, including the 1946 Aleutian, 1960 Chile, and 1964 Alaska events, caused inundation along portions of the northern and central California coast. Recent numerical tsunami modeling results identify the eastern Aleutian Islands subduction zone as the “worstcase” distant-source region, with the potential for causing tsunami runups of 7–10 m in northern and central California and 3–4 m in southern California. These model results, along with a review of historical topographic maps and past geotechnical evaluations, guided site selection for tsunami deposit surveys. A reconnaissance of 20 coastal marshlands was performed through site visits and coring of shallow surface sediments to determine if evidence for past tsunamis existed. Although conclusive evidence of tsunami deposits was not found at most of the sites evaluated, geologic evidence consistent with tsunami inundation was found at two locations: Three marshes in the Crescent City area and Pillar Point marsh near Half Moon Bay. Potential tsunami deposits were also evaluated at the Carpinteria Salt Marsh Reserve in Santa Barbara County. In Crescent City, deposits were ascribed to tsunamis on the basis of stratigraphic architecture, particle size, and microfossil content, and they were further assigned to the 1964 Alaska and 1700 Cascadia tsunamis on the basis of dating by cesium-137 and radiocarbon methods, respectively. The 1946 tsunami sand deposit was clearly identified throughout Pillar Point marsh, and one to two other similar but highly discontinuous sand layers were present within 0.5 m of the surface. A tsunami-origin interpretation for sand layers at Carpinteria is merely consistent with graded bedding and unsupported by diatom or foraminiferal assemblages. Additional studies, including age dating, grain-size, and microfossil analyses are underway for the deposits at Crescent City, Pillar Point marsh, and Carpinteria, which may help further identify if other tsunami deposits exist at those sites. The absence of evidence for tsunamis at other sites examined should not preclude further work beyond the reconnaissance-level investigations at those locations.

Field survey of the 16 September 2015 Chile tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, Marcelo; Fritz, Hermann M.

2016-04-01

On the evening of 16 September, 2015 a magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of central Chile's Coquimbo region. The ensuing tsunami caused significant inundation and damage in the Coquimbo or 4th region and mostly minor effects in neighbouring 3rd and 5th regions. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from the past 1922 and 1943 tsunamis in the region along with the catastrophic 2010 Maule and recent 2014 tsunamis, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. There were a few tsunami victims; while a handful of fatalities were associated to earthquake induced building collapses and the physical stress of tsunami evacuation. The international scientist joined the local effort from September 20 to 26, 2015. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns, performance of the navigation infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The ITST covered a 500 km stretch of coastline from Caleta Chañaral de Aceituno (28.8° S) south of Huasco down to Llolleo near San Antonio (33.6° S). We surveyed more than 40 locations and recorded more than 100 tsunami and runup heights with differential GPS and integrated laser range finders. The tsunami impact peaked at Caleta Totoral near Punta Aldea with both tsunami and runup heights exceeding 10 m as surveyed on September 22 and broadcasted nationwide that evening. Runup exceeded 10 m at a second uninhabited location some 15 km south of Caleta Totoral. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along the coastlines of central Chile at local and regional scales. The tsunami occurred in the evening hours limiting the availability of eyewitness video footages. Observations from the 2015 Chile tsunami are compared against the 1922, 1943, 2010 and 2014 Chile tsunamis. The tsunami was characterized by rapid arrival within minutes in the nearfield requiring spontaneous self-evacuation as warning messages did not reach some of the hardest hit fishing villages prior to tsunami arrival. The absence of a massive tsunami outside of the 4th region may mislead evacuated residents in the adjacent 3rd and 5th regions of Chile in potential future events. This event poses significant challenges to community-based education raising tsunami awareness. The team educated residents about tsunami hazards since awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from near-field tsunamis.

Heterogeneous slip distribution on faults responsible for large earthquakes: characterization and implications for tsunami modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baglione, Enrico; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2017-04-01

The fact that ruptures on the generating faults of large earthquakes are strongly heterogeneous has been demonstrated over the last few decades by a large number of studies. The effort to retrieve reliable finite-fault models (FFMs) for large earthquakes occurred worldwide, mainly by means of the inversion of different kinds of geophysical data, has been accompanied in the last years by the systematic collection and format homogenisation of the published/proposed FFMs for different earthquakes into specifically conceived databases, such as SRCMOD. The main aim of this study is to explore characteristic patterns of the slip distribution of large earthquakes, by using a subset of the FFMs contained in SRCMOD, covering events with moment magnitude equal or larger than 6 and occurred worldwide over the last 25 years. We focus on those FFMs that exhibit a single and clear region of high slip (i.e. a single asperity), which is found to represent the majority of the events. For these FFMs, it sounds reasonable to best-fit the slip model by means of a 2D Gaussian distributions. Two different methods are used (least-square and highest-similarity) and correspondingly two "best-fit" indexes are introduced. As a result, two distinct 2D Gaussian distributions for each FFM are obtained. To quantify how well these distributions are able to mimic the original slip heterogeneity, we calculate and compare the vertical displacements at the Earth surface in the near field induced by the original FFM slip, by an equivalent uniform-slip model, by a depth-dependent slip model, and by the two "best" Gaussian slip models. The coseismic vertical surface displacement is used as the metric for comparison. Results show that, on average, the best results are the ones obtained with 2D Gaussian distributions based on similarity index fitting. Finally, we restrict our attention to those single-asperity FFMs associated to earthquakes which generated tsunamis. We choose few events for which tsunami data (water level time series and/or run-up measurements) are available. Using the results mentioned above, for each chosen event the coseismic vertical displacement fields computed for different slip distributions are used as initial conditions for numerical tsunami simulations, performed by means of the shallow-water code UBO-TSUFD. The comparison of the numerical results for different initial conditions to the experimental data is presented and discussed. This study was funded in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe", Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Transient Tsunamis in Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couston, L.; Mei, C.; Alam, M.

2013-12-01

A large number of lakes are surrounded by steep and unstable mountains with slopes prone to failure. As a result, landslides are likely to occur and impact water sitting in closed reservoirs. These rare geological phenomena pose serious threats to dam reservoirs and nearshore facilities because they can generate unexpectedly large tsunami waves. In fact, the tallest wave experienced by contemporary humans occurred because of a landslide in the narrow bay of Lituya in 1958, and five years later, a deadly landslide tsunami overtopped Lake Vajont's dam, flooding and damaging villages along the lakefront and in the Piave valley. If unstable slopes and potential slides are detected ahead of time, inundation maps can be drawn to help people know the risks, and mitigate the destructive power of the ensuing waves. These maps give the maximum wave runup height along the lake's vertical and sloping boundaries, and can be obtained by numerical simulations. Keeping track of the moving shorelines along beaches is challenging in classical Eulerian formulations because the horizontal extent of the fluid domain can change over time. As a result, assuming a solid slide and nonbreaking waves, here we develop a nonlinear shallow-water model equation in the Lagrangian framework to address the problem of transient landslide-tsunamis. In this manner, the shorelines' three-dimensional motion is part of the solution. The model equation is hyperbolic and can be solved numerically by finite differences. Here, a 4th order Runge-Kutta method and a compact finite-difference scheme are implemented to integrate in time and spatially discretize the forced shallow-water equation in Lagrangian coordinates. The formulation is applied to different lake and slide geometries to better understand the effects of the lake's finite lengths and slide's forcing mechanism on the generated wavefield. Specifically, for a slide moving down a plane beach, we show that edge-waves trapped by the shoreline and free-waves moving away from it coexist. On an open coast, these two types of waves would never interact, but because of the lake's finite dimensions, here we show that local inundation height maxima are due to wave superposition on the shoreline. These interactions can be dramatic near the lake's corners. For instance, in a rectangular lake delimited by two opposite and plane beaches and two vertical walls, we find that a landslide tsunami results in an inundation height at a corner 50% larger than anywhere else. The nonlinear and linear models produce different inundation maps, and here we show that maximum wave runups can be increased by up to 56% when nonlinear terms are included.

Streamlining Tsunami Messages (e.g., Warnings) of the US National Tsunami Warning Center, Palmer, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Sorensen, J. H.; Vogt Sorensen, B.; Whitmore, P.; Johnston, D. M.

2016-12-01

Spurred in part by world-wide interest in improving warning messaging for and response to tsunamis in the wake of several catastrophic tsunamis since 2004 and growing interest at the US National Weather Service (NWS) to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program, the NWS Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii have made great progress toward enhancing tsunami messages. These include numerous products, among them being Tsunami Warnings, Tsunami Advisories and Tsunami Watches. Beginning in 2010 we have worked with US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Warning Coordination and Mitigation and Education Subcommittee members; Tsunami Program administrators; and NWS Weather Forecast Officers to conduct a series of focus group meetings with stakeholders in coastal areas of Alaska, American Samoa, California, Hawaii, North Carolina, Oregon, US Virgin Islands and Washington to understand end-user perceptions of existing messages and their existing needs in message products. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a Tsunami Warning Message Metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order, Formatting, and Receiver Characteristics. A sample message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met, whether the message is a full length or short message. Incrementally, this work contributed to revisions in the format, content and style of message products issued by the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC). Since that time, interest in short warning messages has continued to increase and in May 2016 the NTWC began efforts to revise message products to take advantage of recent NWS policy changes allowing use of mixed-case text format and expanded punctuation, a practice which the NWS first started in 2010. Here we describe our application of a modification of the warning message metric to develop new streamlined messages using mixed-case text. These messages reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness.

Hydraulic experiment on formation mechanism of tsunami deposit and verification of sediment transport model for tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, A.; Takahashi, T.; Harada, K.; Sakuraba, M.; Nojima, K.

2017-12-01

An underestimation of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami caused serious damage in coastal area. Reconsideration for tsunami estimation needs knowledge of paleo tsunamis. The historical records of giant tsunamis are limited, because they had occurred infrequently. Tsunami deposits may include many of tsunami records and are expected to analyze paleo tsunamis. However, present research on tsunami deposits are not able to estimate the tsunami source and its magnitude. Furthermore, numerical models of tsunami and its sediment transport are also important. Takahashi et al. (1999) proposed a model of movable bed condition due to tsunamis, although it has some issues. Improvement of the model needs basic data on sediment transport and deposition. This study investigated the formation mechanism of tsunami deposit by hydraulic experiment using a two-dimensional water channel with slope. In a fixed bed condition experiment, velocity, water level and suspended load concentration were measured at many points. In a movable bed condition, effects of sand grains and bore wave on the deposit were examined. Yamamoto et al. (2016) showed deposition range varied with sand grain sizes. In addition, it is revealed that the range fluctuated by number of waves and wave period. The measurements of velocity and water level showed that flow was clearly different near shoreline and in run-up area. Large velocity by return flow was affected the amount of sand deposit near shoreline. When a cutoff wall was installed on the slope, the amount of sand deposit repeatedly increased and decreased. Especially, sand deposit increased where velocity decreased. Takahashi et al. (1999) adapted the proposed model into Kesennuma bay when the 1960 Chilean tsunami arrived, although the amount of sand transportation was underestimated. The cause of the underestimation is inferred that the velocity of this model was underestimated. A relationship between velocity and sediment transport has to be studied in detail, but observation of velocity in Kesennnuma bay had a low accuracy. On the other hand, this hydraulic experiment measured accurate velocity and sand deposition distribution of various condition. Based on these data, we tried more accurate verification of the model of Takahashi et al. (1999).

New Science Applications Within the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.; Forson, C. K.; Horrillo, J. J.; Nicolsky, D.

2017-12-01

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is a collaborative State and Federal program which supports consistent and cost effective tsunami preparedness and mitigation activities at a community level. The NTHMP is developing a new five-year Strategic Plan based on the 2017 Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act as well as recommendations the 2017 NTHMP External Review Panel. Many NTHMP activities are based on the best available scientific methods through the NTHMP Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS). The primary activities for the MMS member States are to characterize significant tsunami sources, numerically model those sources, and create tsunami inundation maps for evacuation planning. This work remains a focus for many unmapped coastlines. With the lessons learned from the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Japan tsunamis, where both immediate risks and long-term recovery issues where recognized, the NTHMP MMS is expanding efforts into other areas that address community resilience. Tsunami evacuation modeling based on both pedestrian and vehicular modes of transportation are being developed by NTHMP States. Products include tools for the public to create personal evacuation maps. New tsunami response planning tools are being developed for both maritime and coastal communities. Maritime planning includes tsunami current-hazard maps for in-harbor and offshore response activities. Multi-tiered tsunami evacuation plans are being developed in some states to address local- versus distant-source tsunamis, as well as real-time evacuation plans, or "playbooks," for distant-source tsunamis forecasted to be less than the worst-case flood event. Products to assist community mitigation and recovery are being developed at a State level. Harbor Improvement Reports, which evaluate the impacts of currents, sediment, and debris on harbor infrastructure, include direct mitigation activities for Local Hazard Mitigation Plans. Building code updates in the five Pacific states will include new sections on tsunami load analysis of structures, and require Tsunami Design Zones based on probabilistic analyses. Guidance for community recovery planning has also been initiated. These new projects are being piloted by some States and will help create guidance for other States in the future.

Satellite-based observations of tsunami-induced mesosphere airglow perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yu-Ming; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Meng, Xing; Langley, Richard B.; Hunt, Linda A.

2017-01-01

Tsunami-induced airglow emission perturbations were retrieved by using space-based measurements made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broad-band Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics spacecraft. At and after the time of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake on 11 March 2011, and the Chile earthquake on 16 September 2015, the spacecraft was performing scans over the Pacific Ocean. Significant ( 10% relative to the ambient emission profiles) and coherent nighttime airglow perturbations were observed in the mesosphere following Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broad-band Emission Radiometry limb scans intercepting tsunami-induced atmospheric gravity waves. Simulations of emission variations are consistent with the physical characteristics of the disturbances at the locations of the corresponding SABER scans. Airglow observations and model simulations suggest that atmospheric neutral density and temperature perturbations can lead to the observed amplitude variations and multipeak structures in the emission profiles. This is the first time that airglow emission rate perturbations associated with tsunamis have been detected with space-based measurements.

Extreme wave deposits on the Pacific coast of Mexico: Tsunamis or storms? — A multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramírez-Herrera, María-Teresa; Lagos, Marcelo; Hutchinson, Ian; Kostoglodov, Vladimir; Machain, Maria Luisa; Caballero, Margarita; Goguitchaichvili, Avto; Aguilar, Bertha; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James; Ruiz-Fernández, Ana-Carolina; Ortiz, Modesto; Nava, Hector; Bautista, Francisco; Lopez, Gloria I.; Quintana, Patricia

2012-02-01

Historical and instrumental data show that the Pacific coast of Mexico has been exposed to destructive tsunamis over at least the past 500 years. This coast is also affected by hurricanes generated in the eastern Pacific. The great 1985 Mexico earthquake and its aftershock generated tsunamis that affected the Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo and Michoacán coast. The purpose of our study was two-fold — a) to determine whether storm and tsunami deposits could be distinguished, and b) whether tsunami deposits from historical events are preserved in the tropical environments of the Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo coast. Two anomalous sand units in the Ixtapa estuary are interpreted to be the result of high-energy marine inundation events that occurred in the last century. Several lines of evidence using a multi-proxy approach (historical studies, interviews with local witnesses, geomorphological and geological surveys, coring and trenching, laboratory analyses including grain size, micropaleontology, geochemistry, magnetic susceptibility and radiometric dating, and numerical modeling) indicate the occurrence of two tsunamis that we link to local events: the 21st September 1985 Mexico and possibly the 14th March 1979 Petatlan earthquakes. We thereby provide the first onshore geological evidence of historical tsunamis on the Pacific coast of Mexico.

How material contrast around subduction faults may control coseismic slip and rupture dynamics: tsunami applications for the case study of Tohoku

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scala, Antonio; Murphy, Shane; Romano, Fabrizio; Lorito, Stefano; Festa, Gaetano; Volpe, Manuela; Piatanesi, Alessio

2017-04-01

Recent megathrust tsunamigenic events, e.g. Maule 2010 (M8.8) and Tohoku 2011 (M9.0), generated huge tsunami waves as a consequence of high slip in the shallow part of the respective subduction zone. Other events, (e.g. the recent Mentawai 2010, M7.8, or the historical Meiji 1896, M8.2), referred to as tsunami earthquakes, produced unexpectedly large tsunami waves, probably due to large slip at shallow depth over longer rupture durations compared to deeper thrust events. Subduction zone earthquakes originate and propagate along bimaterial interfaces separating materials having different elastic properties, e.g. continental and oceanic crust, a stiffer deep mantle wedge, shallow compliant accretionary prism etc. Bimaterial interfaces have been showed, through observations (seismological and laboratory) and theoretical studies, to affect the rupture: introducing a preferred rupture direction as well as asymmetric rupture velocities and shear stress redistributions. Such features are predominantly due to the break of symmetry between the two sides of the interface in turn ascribable to the complex coupling between the frictional interfacial sliding and the slip-induced normal stress perturbations. In order to examine the influence of material contrast on a fault plane on the seismic source and tsunami waves, we modelled a Tohoku-like subduction zone to perform a large number of 2D along-dip rupture dynamics simulations in the framework of linear slip weakening both for homogeneous and bimaterial fault. In this latter model, the rupture acts as the interface between the subducting oceanic crust and the overriding layers (accretionary prism, continental crust and mantle wedge), varying the position of the shear stress asperity acting as nucleation patch. Initial results reveal that ruptures in homogeneous media produce earthquakes with large slip at depth compared to the case where bi-material interface is included. However the opposite occurs for events nucleating at intermediate depths: the compliant accretionary prism favours slip up to the free surface leading to larger events compared to the homogeneous case. These preliminary findings will be further investigated considering different material contrasts between the slab and the overriding accretionary prism to mimic the slowness of the sedimentary wedge. This will contribute to assess the influence of these contrasts in more realistic environment on the seismic source features and, in turn, on the conditional probability of exceedance for maximum tsunami wave height for a M9 event. Several source parameters, such as coseismic slip, rupture duration, rupture velocity and stress conditions, derived from the numerical simulations will be compared to those inferred from real events using existing finite fault catalogues (e.g. USGS, SRCMOD, etc.).

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios of potential underwater earthquakes were developed, and these scenarios were then modeled through during the second phase. The third phase consisted in determining the worst-case scenario based on the Maximum of Maximums (MOM). Inundation and evacuation zones were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Maps and related evacuation products, like evacuation times, can be accessed online via the PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP recent outcomes, including the real time monitoring as well as the protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts in Puerto Rico.

Book review: Physics of tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2017-01-01

“Physics of Tsunamis”, second edition, provides a comprehensive analytical treatment of the hydrodynamics associated with the tsunami generation process. The book consists of seven chapters covering 388 pages. Because the subject matter within each chapter is distinct, an abstract appears at the beginning and references appear at the end of each chapter, rather than at the end of the book. Various topics of tsunami physics are examined largely from a theoretical perspective, although there is little information on how the physical descriptions are applied in numerical models.“Physics of Tsunamis”, by B. W. Levin and M. A. Nosov, Second Edition, Springer, 2016; ISBN-10: 33-1933106X, ISBN-13: 978-331933-1065

Hazard assessment of the Tidal Inlet landslide and potential subsequent tsunami, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.; Geist, E.L.; Motyka, R.J.; Jakob, M.

2007-01-01

An unstable rock slump, estimated at 5 to 10????????10 6 m3, lies perched above the northern shore of Tidal Inlet in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. This landslide mass has the potential to rapidly move into Tidal Inlet and generate large, long-period-impulse tsunami waves. Field and photographic examination revealed that the landslide moved between 1892 and 1919 after the retreat of the Little Ice Age glaciers from Tidal Inlet in 1890. Global positioning system measurements over a 2-year period show that the perched mass is presently moving at 3-4 cm annually indicating the landslide remains unstable. Numerical simulations of landslide-generated waves suggest that in the western arm of Glacier Bay, wave amplitudes would be greatest near the mouth of Tidal Inlet and slightly decrease with water depth according to Green's law. As a function of time, wave amplitude would be greatest within approximately 40 min of the landslide entering water, with significant wave activity continuing for potentially several hours. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Multiple paleotsunamis inferred from a single coral boulder (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, K.; Nakamura, N.; Sato, T.; Hisamatsu, A.

2013-12-01

Tsunami boulders are important geological evidence of paleotsunamis. Recent advance in field observation, laboratory analyses and numerical modeling on coastal boulders have greatly improved our knowledge regarding to their depositional process. For example, in the southern Ryukyu Islands, Japan, radiocarbon dating of many coral boulders were performed and the recurrence interval of the paleotsunamis was estimated [Araoka et al., 2013 Geology]. Their preferential distributions in specific area would also suggest local occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes [Goto et al., 2013 Geology]. These types of works can be conducted at the place where many boulders exist and any type of dating methods are applicable to estimate their depositional ages. On the other hand, there are many isolated boulders in the world and their depositional ages were sometimes uncertain. Therefore, it is highly required developing a methodology to use such isolated boulders not just to use it as evidence of paleotsunamis but to know more details such as timing and size of tsunami. In order to overcome this issue, we introduce an advanced methodology based on the paleomagnetism as well as the numerical modeling. Rocks possess a remanent magnetization parallel to the Earth's magnetic field at the time of rock formation. When boulders are rotated or overturned by the paleotsunami from their original locations, a new component of viscous remanent magnetization (VRM) is added on an original component parallel to the Earth's magnetic field. The VRM acquired at low temperature during a long time scale in nature can be demagnetized at high temperature in a short time in laboratory. Therefore, the demagnetizing (unblocking) temperature of VRM gives a transportation mode and also its timing for the transportation histories from a single boulder [Sato et al., 2013 AOGS abstract]. We applied this method to a large coral boulder at 10 m in elevation at Ishigaki Island, Japan, which was deposited around 2000BP according to the radiocarbon dating [e.g., Goto et al., 2010 Earth-Science Reviews]. The Ishigaki Island was frequently affected by large tsunamis in the past including the recent AD1771 event (~30 m in run-up height) but this boulder was probably not moved by the AD1771 tsunami according to the interpretation of historical document. It is interesting to note that magnetic analyses revealed that this boulder was rotated twice prior to the AD1771 event. Numerical modeling for boulder transport further revealed that one large tsunami whose size is equivalent to the AD1771 event is insufficient to deposit this boulder to its present position from the presumed original position. However, if another tsunami with same size further affected to this boulder, which was once reached to the shore by the former tsunami, then it was reached close to the present position [Hisamatsu et al., 2013 AGU abstract]. Combining the results obtained from paleomagnetic analysis and numerical modeling, we infer that multiple large tsunamis including the AD1771 event was probably occurred during last 2000BP at Ishigaki Island based only on the analyses of this single coral boulder. Although further improvement is required, our methodology may be applied to many possible paleotsunami boulders in the world including isolated ones to unravel their transportation histories that may imply the number and size of tsunamis affected to the boulder in the past.

Tsunami run-up and inundation along the coast of Sabah and Sarawak, Malaysia due to a potential Brunei submarine mass failure.

PubMed

Tan, Wai Kiat; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

2017-07-01

Submarine landslides, also known as submarine mass failures (SMFs), are major natural marine disasters that could critically damage coastal facilities such as nuclear power plants and oil and gas platforms. It is therefore essential to investigate submarine landslides for potential tsunami hazard assessment. Three-dimensional seismic data from offshore Brunei have revealed a giant seabed mass deposited by a previous SMF. The submarine mass extends over 120 km from the continental slope of the Baram Canyon at 200 m water depth to the deep basin floor of the Northwest Borneo Trough. A suite of in-house two-dimensional depth-averaged tsunami simulation model TUNA (Tsunami-tracking Utilities and Application) is developed to assess the vulnerability of coastal communities in Sabah and Sarawak subject to potential SMF tsunami. The submarine slide is modeled as a rigid body moving along a planar slope with the center of mass motion parallel to the planar slope and subject to external forces due to added mass, gravity, and dissipation. The nonlinear shallow water equations are utilized to simulate tsunami propagation from deepwater up to the shallow offshore areas. A wetting-drying algorithm is used when a tsunami wave reaches the shoreline to compute run up of tsunami along the shoreline. Run-up wave height and inundation maps are provided for seven densely populated locations in Sabah and Sarawak to highlight potential risks at each location, subject to two scenarios of slide slopes: 2° and 4°. The first wave may arrive at Kudat as early as 0.4 h after the SMF, giving local communities little time to evacuate. Over a small area, maximum inundated depths reaching 20.3 m at Kudat, 26.1 m at Kota Kinabalu, and 15.5 m at Miri are projected, while the maximum inundation distance of 4.86 km is expected at Miri due to its low-lying coast. In view of the vulnerability of some locations to the SMF tsunami, it is important to develop and implement community resilience program to reduce the potential damage that could be inflicted by SMF tsunamis.

Development of algorithms for tsunami detection by High Frequency Radar based on modeling tsunami case studies in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grilli, Stéphan; Guérin, Charles-Antoine; Grosdidier, Samuel

2015-04-01

Where coastal tsunami hazard is governed by near-field sources, Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs) or earthquakes, tsunami propagation times may be too small for a detection based on deep or shallow water buoys. To offer sufficient warning time, it has been proposed by others to implement early warning systems relying on High Frequency Surface Wave Radar (HFSWR) remote sensing, that has a dense spatial coverage far offshore. A new HFSWR, referred to as STRADIVARIUS, has been recently deployed by Diginext Inc. to cover the "Golfe du Lion" (GDL) in the Western Mediterranean Sea. This radar, which operates at 4.5 MHz, uses a proprietary phase coding technology that allows detection up to 300 km in a bistatic configuration (with a baseline of about 100 km). Although the primary purpose of the radar is vessel detection in relation to homeland security, it can also be used for ocean current monitoring. The current caused by an arriving tsunami will shift the Bragg frequency by a value proportional to a component of its velocity, which can be easily obtained from the Doppler spectrum of the HFSWR signal. Using state of the art tsunami generation and propagation models, we modeled tsunami case studies in the western Mediterranean basin (both seismic and SMFs) and simulated the HFSWR backscattered signal that would be detected for the entire GDL and beyond. Based on simulated HFSWR signal, we developed two types of tsunami detection algorithms: (i) one based on standard Doppler spectra, for which we found that to be detectable within the environmental and background current noises, the Doppler shift requires tsunami currents to be at least 10-15 cm/s, which typically only occurs on the continental shelf in fairly shallow water; (ii) to allow earlier detection, a second algorithm computes correlations of the HFSWR signals at two distant locations, shifted in time by the tsunami propagation time between these locations (easily computed based on bathymetry). We found that this second method allowed detection for currents as low as 5 cm/s, i.e., in deeper water, beyond the shelf and further away from the coast, thus allowing an earlier detection.

Real-time Tsunami Inundation Prediction Using High Performance Computers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

2014-12-01

Recently off-shore tsunami observation stations based on cabled ocean bottom pressure gauges are actively being deployed especially in Japan. These cabled systems are designed to provide real-time tsunami data before tsunamis reach coastlines for disaster mitigation purposes. To receive real benefits of these observations, real-time analysis techniques to make an effective use of these data are necessary. A representative study was made by Tsushima et al. (2009) that proposed a method to provide instant tsunami source prediction based on achieving tsunami waveform data. As time passes, the prediction is improved by using updated waveform data. After a tsunami source is predicted, tsunami waveforms are synthesized from pre-computed tsunami Green functions of linear long wave equations. Tsushima et al. (2014) updated the method by combining the tsunami waveform inversion with an instant inversion of coseismic crustal deformation and improved the prediction accuracy and speed in the early stages. For disaster mitigation purposes, real-time predictions of tsunami inundation are also important. In this study, we discuss the possibility of real-time tsunami inundation predictions, which require faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation simulation in addition to instant tsunami source analysis. Although the computational amount is large to solve non-linear shallow water equations for inundation predictions, it has become executable through the recent developments of high performance computing technologies. We conducted parallel computations of tsunami inundation and achieved 6.0 TFLOPS by using 19,000 CPU cores. We employed a leap-frog finite difference method with nested staggered grids of which resolution range from 405 m to 5 m. The resolution ratio of each nested domain was 1/3. Total number of grid points were 13 million, and the time step was 0.1 seconds. Tsunami sources of 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake were tested. The inundation prediction up to 2 hours after the earthquake occurs took about 2 minutes, which would be sufficient for a practical tsunami inundation predictions. In the presentation, the computational performance of our faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation model will be shown, and preferable tsunami wave source analysis for an accurate inundation prediction will also be discussed.

Numerical and Experimental Study on the Effect of Coral Reef and Beach Vegetation on Reduction of Long Wave Run-Up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohandie, R. K.; Teng, M. H.

2009-12-01

Numerical and experimental studies were carried out to examine the mitigating capabilities of coral reefs and vegetations on tsunami and storm surge inundation. For long waves propagating over variable depth such as that over a reef, the nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq equations were applied. For run-up onto dry land where the nonlinear effect dominates, the nonlinear and nondispersive shallow water equations were used. Long waves with various amplitudes and wavelengths propagating over coral reefs of different length and height were investigated to quantify under which conditions a coral reef may be effective in reducing the wave impact. It was observed that a reef can make a long wave separate into several smaller waves and it can also cause wave breaking resulting in energy dissipation. Our data suggest that both wave separation and breaking induced by coral reefs are effective at mitigating long wave run-up, with the latter being noticeably more effective than the former. As expected, it was observed that the higher the coral reef height, the more the reduction in wave run-up especially when the reef height is greater than 50% of the water depth. For reefs to be effective as a barrier for long waves such as tsunamis and storm surges, it was found that the reefs must be sufficiently long in the wave propagation direction, for example, with its length to be at least of the same magnitude as the wavelength or longer. In this study, it was shown that an effective reef can reduce the long wave run-up by as much as 25% and 50% by wave separation and wave breaking, respectively. Three types of vegetation, namely, grass, shrub and coconut trees, were modeled and tested in a wave tank against various initial wave amplitude and beach slopes in the Hydraulics Lab at the University of Hawaii (UH) to examine each particular type’s effectiveness in reducing wave run-up and to determine its roughness coefficient for wave run-up through numerical simulation and experimental measurement. These roughness coefficients were shown to be higher than the traditional Manning’s coefficient values for vegetation in channel flows. Also, the coefficients were shown to be a function of the ratio of the initial wave amplitude over the vegetation height and are relatively independent of the beach slope. The vegetation spacing and tree diameters in the lab models were selected based on the typical spacing and tree diameter observed in the field through a reduced scale. All three types of vegetation were found to be effective in reducing wave run-up especially on mildly sloped beaches with a reduction rate ranging from 20% to more than 50%. A numerical simulation that incorporated the effects of coral reef and the combined vegetation types showed that on a 5 degree slope the reduction in run-up was 61% as compared to an unprotected scenario. A larger scale experimental study on coconut and bushes in the NSF-funded tsunami basin at the OSU also showed these vegetations are effective at reducing wave run-up. These results can be helpful in achieving a better understanding of the role that coral reefs and vegetation play in tsunami and storm surge mitigation.

Real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and damage mapping towards enhancing tsunami disaster resiliency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshimura, S.; Hino, R.; Ohta, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Musa, A.; Murashima, Y.

2014-12-01

With use of modern computing power and advanced sensor networks, a project is underway to establish a new system of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting, damage estimation and mapping to enhance society's resilience in the aftermath of major tsunami disaster. The system consists of fusion of real-time crustal deformation monitoring/fault model estimation by Ohta et al. (2012), high-performance real-time tsunami propagation/inundation modeling with NEC's vector supercomputer SX-ACE, damage/loss estimation models (Koshimura et al., 2013), and geo-informatics. After a major (near field) earthquake is triggered, the first response of the system is to identify the tsunami source model by applying RAPiD Algorithm (Ohta et al., 2012) to observed RTK-GPS time series at GEONET sites in Japan. As performed in the data obtained during the 2011 Tohoku event, we assume less than 10 minutes as the acquisition time of the source model. Given the tsunami source, the system moves on to running tsunami propagation and inundation model which was optimized on the vector supercomputer SX-ACE to acquire the estimation of time series of tsunami at offshore/coastal tide gauges to determine tsunami travel and arrival time, extent of inundation zone, maximum flow depth distribution. The implemented tsunami numerical model is based on the non-linear shallow-water equations discretized by finite difference method. The merged bathymetry and topography grids are prepared with 10 m resolution to better estimate the tsunami inland penetration. Given the maximum flow depth distribution, the system performs GIS analysis to determine the numbers of exposed population and structures using census data, then estimates the numbers of potential death and damaged structures by applying tsunami fragility curve (Koshimura et al., 2013). Since the tsunami source model is determined, the model is supposed to complete the estimation within 10 minutes. The results are disseminated as mapping products to responders and stakeholders, e.g. national and regional municipalities, to be utilized for their emergency/response activities. In 2014, the system is verified through the case studies of 2011 Tohoku event and potential earthquake scenarios along Nankai Trough with regard to its capability and robustness.

Sources of information for tsunami forecasting in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Ristau, J. P.; D'Anastasio, E.; Wang, X.

2013-12-01

Tsunami science has evolved considerably in the last two decades due to technological advancements which also helped push for better numerical modelling of the tsunami phases (generation to inundation). The deployment of DART buoys has also been a considerable milestone in tsunami forecasting. Tsunami forecasting is one of the parts that tsunami modelling feeds into and is related to response, preparedness and planning. Usually tsunami forecasting refers to short-term forecasting that takes place in real-time after a tsunami has or appears to have been generated. In this report we refer to all types of forecasting (short-term or long-term) related to work in advance of a tsunami impacting a coastline that would help in response, planning or preparedness. We look at the standard types of data (seismic, GPS, water level) that are available in New Zealand for tsunami forecasting, how they are currently being used, other ways to use these data and provide recommendations for better utilisation. The main findings are: -Current investigations of the use of seismic parameters quickly obtained after an earthquake, have potential to provide critical information about the tsunamigenic potential of earthquakes. Further analysis of the most promising methods should be undertaken to determine a path to full implementation. -Network communication of the largest part of the GPS network is not currently at a stage that can provide sufficient data early enough for tsunami warning. It is believed that it has potential, but changes including data transmission improvements may have to happen before real-time processing oriented to tsunami early warning is implemented on the data that is currently provided. -Tide gauge data is currently under-utilised for tsunami forecasting. Spectral analysis, modal analysis based on identified modes and arrival times extracted from the records can be useful in forecasting. -The current study is by no means exhaustive of the ways the different types of data can be used. We are only presenting an overview of what can be done. More extensive studies with each one of the types of data collected by GeoNet and other relevant networks will help improve tsunami forecasting in New Zealand.

Community exposure to tsunami hazards in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff

2013-01-01

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic data from Infogroup (2011), including 168,565 employees (2 percent of the 20-county labor force) at 15,335 businesses that generate approximately $30 billion in annual sales. Although the regional percentage of at-risk employees is low, certain communities, such as Belvedere, Alameda, and Crescent City, have high percentages of their local workforce in the tsunami-inundation zone. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are primarily in businesses associated with tourism (for example, accommodations, food services, and retail trade) and shipping (for example, transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, and wholesale trade), although the dominance of these sectors varies substantially among the 94 cities. Although the number of occupants is not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone contains numerous dependent-population facilities, such as schools and child daycare centers, which may have individuals with limited mobility. The tsunami-inundation zone includes a substantial number of facilities that provide community services, such as banks, religious organizations, and grocery stores, where local residents may be unaware of evacuation procedures if previous awareness efforts focused on home preparedness. There are also numerous recreational areas in the tsunami-inundation zone, such as amusement parks, marinas, city and county beaches, and State and national parks, which attract visitors who may not be aware of tsunami hazards or evacuation procedures. During peak summer months, estimated daily attendance at city and county beaches can be approximately six times larger than the total number of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone. Community exposure to tsunamis in California varies considerably—some communities may experience great losses that reflect only a small part of their community and others may experience relatively small losses that devastate them. Among 94 incorporated communities and the remaining unincorporated areas of the 20 coastal counties, the communities of Alameda, Oakland, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Huntington Beach, and San Diego have the highest number of people and businesses in the tsunami-inundation zone. The communities of Belvedere, Alameda, Crescent City, Emeryville, Seal Beach, and Sausalito have the highest percentages of people and businesses in this zone. On the basis of a composite index, the cities of Alameda, Belvedere, Crescent City, Emeryville, Oakland, and Long Beach have the highest combinations of the number and percentage of people and businesses in tsunami-prone areas.

On the Resonant Behavior of a Weakly Compressible Water Layer During Tsunamigenic Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cecioni, Claudia; Bellotti, Giorgio

2018-01-01

Tsunamigenic earthquakes trigger pressure waves in the ocean, given the weak compressibility of the sea water. For particular conditions, a resonant behavior of the water layer can occur, which influences the energy transfer from the sea-bed motion to the ocean. In this paper, the resonance conditions are explained and analyzed, focusing on the hydro-acoustic waves in the proximity of the earthquake area. A preliminary estimation of the generation parameters (sea-bed rising time, velocity) is given, by means of parametric numerical simulations for simplified conditions. The results confirm the importance of measuring, modeling, and interpreting such waves for tsunami early detection and warning.

On the Resonant Behavior of a Weakly Compressible Water Layer During Tsunamigenic Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cecioni, Claudia; Bellotti, Giorgio

2018-04-01

Tsunamigenic earthquakes trigger pressure waves in the ocean, given the weak compressibility of the sea water. For particular conditions, a resonant behavior of the water layer can occur, which influences the energy transfer from the sea-bed motion to the ocean. In this paper, the resonance conditions are explained and analyzed, focusing on the hydro-acoustic waves in the proximity of the earthquake area. A preliminary estimation of the generation parameters (sea-bed rising time, velocity) is given, by means of parametric numerical simulations for simplified conditions. The results confirm the importance of measuring, modeling, and interpreting such waves for tsunami early detection and warning.

Earthquake and Tsunami planning, outreach and awareness in Humboldt County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozaki, V.; Nicolini, T.; Larkin, D.; Dengler, L.

2008-12-01

Humboldt County has the longest coastline in California and is one of the most seismically active areas of the state. It is at risk from earthquakes located on and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), other regional fault systems, and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology published the first earthquake scenario to include both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of representatives from government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector from the three northern coastal California counties, was formed in 1996 to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation. The RCTWG and its member agencies have sponsored a variety of projects including education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning, and has sponsored an Earthquake - Tsunami Education Room at the Humboldt County fair for the past eleven years. Three editions of Living on Shaky Ground an earthquake-tsunami preparedness magazine for California's North Coast, have been published since 1993 and a fourth is due to be published in fall 2008. In 2007, Humboldt County was the first region in the country to participate in a tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD and the first area in California to conduct a full-scale tsunami evacuation drill. The County has conducted numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises using county-wide tsunami response plan. Two Humboldt County communities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service in 2007. Over 300 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in Humboldt County since March 2008. Six assessment surveys from 1993 to 2006 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the county and additional surveys have tracked public awareness and tourist concerns about tsunami hazard signs. Over the thirteen year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 73 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 42 percent.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program Pr-Nthmp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Hincapie-Cardenas, C. M.

2014-12-01

Tsunami hazard assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts are intended to reduce losses to life and property. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies, to developing tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the National Tsunami Hazards and Mitigation Program (NTHMP). This grant supports the TsunamiReady program which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. The seismic water waves originating in the prominent fault systems around PR are considered to be a near-field hazard for Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands (PR/VI) because they can reach coastal areas within a few minutes after the earthquake. Sources for local, regional and tele tsunamis have been identified and modeled and tsunami evacuation maps were prepared for PR. These maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario (MOM). The run-ups were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Online maps and related evacuation products are available to the public via the PR-TDST (PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool). Currently all the 44 coastal municipalities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the US NWS. The main goal of the program is to declare Puerto Rico as TsunamiReady, including two cities that are not coastal but could be affected by tsunamis. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP project, including the real time earthquake and tsunami monitoring as well as the specific protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach in Puerto Rico.

Asteroid Generated Tsunami Workshop: Summary of NASA/NOAA Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj

2017-01-01

A two-day workshop on tsunami generated by asteroid impacts in the ocean resulted in a broad consensus that the asteroid impact tsunami threat is not as great as previously thought, that airburst events in particular are unlikely to produce significant damage by tsunami, and that the tsunami contribution to the global ensemble impact hazard is substantially less than the contribution from land impacts. The workshop, led by Ethiraj Venkatapathy and David Morrison of NASA Ames, was organized into three sessions: 1) Near-field wave generation by the impact; 2) Long distance wave propagation; 3) Damage from coastal run-up and inundation, and associated hazard. Workshop approaches were to compare simulations to understand differences in the results and gain confidence in the modeling for both formation and propagation of tsunami from asteroid impacts, and to use this information for preliminary global risk assessment. The workshop focus was on smaller asteroids (diameter less than 250m), which represent the most frequent impacts.

Near-field tsunami inferred from numerical modeling of medieval overwash at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Atwater, B. F.; Tuttle, M. P.; Robert, H.; Feuillet, N.; Jennifer, W.; Fuentes, Z.

2012-12-01

In a comparison among numerical models of storms and tsunamis, only tsunami waves of nearby origin manage to wash over an area where coral heads of medieval age are scattered hundreds of meters inland from the north shore of Anegada, British Virgin Islands. This low-lying island faces the Puerto Rico Trench 120 km to the north. The island's north shore, fringed by a coral reef 100-1200 m offshore, displays geological evidence for two levels of overwash. The medieval overwash, dated to AD 1200-1450, was the higher one. It is evidenced by scores of coral boulders scattered hundreds of meters inland. Some of them crossed the area of the modern storm berm at Soldier Wash, continued across a broad limestone rise 3-4 m above sea level, and came to rest on lower ground farther inland. Coral heads in four other areas, also medieval or older, came to rest hundreds of meters inland from beach ridges now 2-4 m above sea level. The later, lower-elevation overwash, dated to AD 1650-1800, laid down a sheet of sand and shell that extends as much as 1.5 km inland. The hypothetical causes for each event, tested by numerical modeling, include (1) category IV and V hurricanes that differ in surge and wave heights; (2) the 1755 Lisbon earthquake or hypothetical medieval predecessor, at M 8.7 and M 9.0; (3) M 8.4 thrust earthquake along the Puerto Rico Trench between Hispaniola and Anegada; (4) M 8.7 thrust along the Puerto Rico Trench between Tortola and Antigua; (5) M 8.0 earthquake from normal faulting on the outer rise north of Anegada. The model output includes extent of onshore flooding, depth and velocity of overland flow, and energy lost by tsunami and hurricane waves as they cross the reef and continue across a shallow subtidal flat to Anegada's north shore. For the medieval overwash, the modeling is most conclusive in testing various explanations for the coral boulders inland of Soldier Wash. The simulated hurricane waves do not wash inland of the storm berm; the height of storm surge level is limited by deep water offshore, and the waves lose energy by breaking on the reef. As for the hypothesized tsunami sources, the Soldier Wash evidence is explained only by the M 8.7 interplate-thrust source along the eastern Puerto Rico Trench (4) or the outer-rise source north of Anegada (5). The M 8.7 interplate-thrust source may be inconsistent with recent GPS measurements [1], in which case the likely source is normal faulting on the outer rise (L = 132 km, W = 45 km, depth = 7.5 km, dip = 60°, strike = 110°, rake = -90°, slip = 7.1 m). The 1755 Lisbon tsunami may explain the sand-and-shell sheet from 1650-1800, with two caveats: (1) the sheet extends farther inland than does the modeled inundation from a Lisbon source smaller than M 9.0; and (2) neither of the Lisbon sources tested corresponds to mapped faults offshore Iberia (the modeled Lisbon sources strike NNW-SSE to account for flooding and damage elsewhere in the Caribbean [2]). In the hurricane models, the reef and the subtidal flats behind it dissipate too much wave energy from the storms to explain even the low-elevation overwash of 1650-1800. COMPANION ABSTRACTS: Geological evidence overview (Atwater), coral-boulder ages (Weil Accardo). REFERENCES: [1] GRL 39 (2012), L10304. [2] Marine Geology (2009), 264, 109-122.

High-Performance Computing and Visualization of Tsunamis and Wind-Driven Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y. S.; Zhang, H.; Yuen, D. A.; Wang, M.

2005-12-01

The Sumatran earthquake and the tsunami waves produced have awakened great scientific interest in wave-propagation over undulated bottom topography and along complicated coastlines. The recent hurricane Katrina has also called our attention to shorter period waves near the coast. Analytical approximations are valid over long wavelengths in the far field. For near field regions with complex geography and other complications, such as islands and harbors, numerical simulations must be employed to obtain accurate predictions in time and space. Nowadays using 10**7 to 10**8 grid points become quite routine with massively parallel computers and large RAM and disk memories. Besides tsunamis, river discharges from upstream events and waves driven by hurricanes are also of societal relevance, especially in central China and now also in U.S.A. Using automatic grid generation methods, we have devised a finite-element based code, for the three stages which culminates with the use of the augmented Lagrangian method for the run-up process, as well as the Arbitrary Lagrange- Euler Configuration method to tackle the free surface problem near the seashore. This formulation allows for the wave surface to be self-consistently determined within a linearized framework and is computationally very fast. Our continuous efforts are focussed on seeking novel algorithms and state of art techniques, in order to unravel the mysteries associated with tsunami wave propagation and wind-driven waves in 3-D. We have cast the Navier-Stokes equations within the framework of a compressible model with an equation of state for sea-water. Our formulation allows the tracking and simulation of three stages , principally the formation, propagation and run-up stages of tsunami and waves coming ashore. The sequential version of this code can run on a workstation with 4 Gbyte memory less than 2 minutes per time step for one million grid points. This code has also been parallelized with MPI-2 and has good scaling properties, nearly linear speedup, which has been tested on a 32-node PC cluster. We have employed the actual ocean seafloor topographical data to construct oceanic volume and attempt to construct the coastline as realistic as possible, using 11 levels structure meshes in the radial direction of the earth. In order to understand the intricate dynamics of the wave interactions, we have implemented a visualization overlay based on Amira, a 3-D volume rendering visualization tools for massive data post-processing. The ability to visualize the large data sets remotely is an important objective we are aiming for, as international collaboration is one of the top aims of this research.

Tsunami in the Ionosphere ? a pinch of gravity with a good plasma sauce !

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Occhipinti, Giovanni; Rolland, Ms Lucie; Kherani, Alam; Lognonné, Philippe; Komjathy, Attila; Mannucci, Anthony

A series of ionospheric anomalies following the Sumatra tsunami has been reported in the scientific literature (e.g., Liu et al. 2006; DasGupta et al. 2006; Occhipinti et al. 2006). Similar anomalies were also observed after the tsunamigenic earthquake in Peru in 2001 (Artru et al., 2005) and after the recent earthquakes in Sumatra and Chile in 2007. All these anomalies show the signature in the ionosphere of tsunami-generated internal gravity waves (IGW) propagating in the neutral atmosphere over oceanic regions. Most of these ionospheric anomalies are deterministic and reproducible by numerical modeling (Occhipinti et al., 2006) via the ocean/neutral atmosphere/ionosphere coupling mechanism. In addition, the numerical modeling supplies useful helps in the estimation of expected anomalies in the global scale to explore the effect of geomagnetic field in the neutral/plasma coupling (Occhipinti et al., 2008). Here we present an overview of the physical coupling mechanism highlighting the strong ampli- fication mechanism of atmospheric IGW; it allows to detect these anomalies when the tsunami is offshore where the see level displacement is still small. This property adds to the increasing coverage of ionospheric sounding measurements, suggests the implication of ionospheric sounding in the future oceanic monitoring and tsunami warning system. [Artru et al., 2005] Geophys. J. Int., 160, 2005 [DasGupta et al., 2006] Earth Planet. Space, 35, 929-959. [Liu et al., 2006] J. Geophys. Res., 111, A05303. [Occhipinti et al., 2006] Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L20104, 2006 [Occhipinti et al., 2008] Geophys. J. Int., in press.

The DEBOT Model, a New Global Barotropic Ocean Tidal Model: Test Computations and an Application in Related Geophysical Disciplines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Einspigel, D.; Sachl, L.; Martinec, Z.

2014-12-01

We present the DEBOT model, which is a new global barotropic ocean model. The DEBOT model is primarily designed for modelling of ocean flow generated by the tidal attraction of the Moon and the Sun, however it can be used for other ocean applications where the barotropic model is sufficient, for instance, a tsunami wave propagation. The model has been thoroughly tested by several different methods: 1) synthetic example which involves a tsunami-like wave propagation of an initial Gaussian depression and testing of the conservation of integral invariants, 2) a benchmark study with another barotropic model, the LSGbt model, has been performed and 3) results of realistic simulations have been compared with data from tide gauge measurements around the world. The test computations prove the validity of the numerical code and demonstrate the ability of the DEBOT model to simulate the realistic ocean tides. The DEBOT model will be principaly applied in related geophysical disciplines, for instance, in an investigation of an influence of the ocean tides on the geomagnetic field or the Earth's rotation. A module for modelling of the secondary poloidal magnetic field generated by an ocean flow is already implemented in the DEBOT model and preliminary results will be presented. The future aim is to assimilate magnetic data provided by the Swarm satellite mission into the ocean flow model.

Scientific Animations for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's YouTube Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Shiro, B.; Ward, B.

2013-12-01

Outreach and education save lives, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has a new tool--a YouTube Channel--to advance its mission to protect lives and property from dangerous tsunamis. Such outreach and education is critical for coastal populations nearest an earthquake since they may not get an official warning before a tsunami reaches them and will need to know what to do when they feel strong shaking. Those who live far enough away to receive useful official warnings and react to them, however, can also benefit from PTWC's education and outreach efforts. They can better understand a tsunami warning message when they receive one, can better understand the danger facing them, and can better anticipate how events will unfold while the warning is in effect. The same holds true for emergency managers, who have the authority to evacuate the public they serve, and for the news media, critical partners in disseminating tsunami hazard information. PTWC's YouTube channel supplements its formal outreach and education efforts by making its computer animations available 24/7 to anyone with an Internet connection. Though the YouTube channel is only a month old (as of August 2013), it should rapidly develop a large global audience since similar videos on PTWC's Facebook page have reached over 70,000 viewers during organized media events, while PTWC's official web page has received tens of millions of hits during damaging tsunamis. These animations are not mere cartoons but use scientific data and calculations to render graphical depictions of real-world phenomena as accurately as possible. This practice holds true whether the animation is a simple comparison of historic earthquake magnitudes or a complex simulation cycling through thousands of high-resolution data grids to render tsunami waves propagating across an entire ocean basin. PTWC's animations fall into two broad categories. The first group illustrates concepts about seismology and how it is critical to tsunami warning operations, such as those about earthquake magnitudes, how earthquakes are located, where and how often earthquakes occur, and fault rupture length. The second group uses the PTWC-developed tsunami forecast model, RIFT (Wang et al., 2012), to show how various historic tsunamis propagated through the world's oceans. These animations illustrate important concepts about tsunami behavior such as their speed, how they bend around and bounce off of seafloor features, how their wave heights vary from place to place and in time, and how their behavior is strongly influenced by the type of earthquake that generated them. PTWC's YouTube channel also includes an animation that simulates both seismic and tsunami phenomena together as they occurred for the 2011 Japan tsunami including actual sea-level measurements and proper timing for tsunami alert status, thus serving as a video 'time line' for that event and showing the time scales involved in tsunami warning operations. Finally, PTWC's scientists can use their YouTube channel to communicate with their colleagues in the research community by supplementing their peer-reviewed papers with video 'figures' (e.g., Wang et al., 2012).

Tsunami hazard assessment along the U. S. East Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tajalli Bakhsh, T.; Grilli, S. T.; Harris, J. C.; Kirby, J. T.; Shi, F.; Tehranirad, B.

2012-12-01

In 2005, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) was tasked by Congress to develop tsunami inundation maps for the entire US coastline. This work provides an overview of the modeling work related to the development inundation maps along the US east coast. In this region the paucity of historical tsunami records and lack of paleotsunami observations yields a large uncertainty on the source and magnitude of potential extreme tsunami events, and their related coastal hazard. In the Atlantic Ocean basin significant tsunami hazard may result from far-field earthquakes, such as a repeat of the M8.9 Lisbon 1755 event in the Azores convergence zone, or a hypothetical extreme M9 earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT). Additionally, it is believed that a repeat of one of the large historical collapses, identified at the toe of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma (Canary Islands; i.e., with a maximum volume of 450 km3), could pose a major tsunami hazard to the entire US east coast. Finally, in the near-field, large submarine mass failure (SMF) scars have been mapped by USGS, particularly North of the Carolinas (e.g., Currituck), which are believed to have caused past tsunamis. Large SMFs can be triggered by moderate seismicity (M7 or so), such as can occur on the east coast. In fact, one of the few historical tsunamis that significantly affected this region was caused by the 1929 Grand Bank underwater slide, which was triggered by a M7.2 earthquake. In this work we identify and parameterize all potential tsunami sources affecting the US east coast, and perform simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal impact in a series of increasingly resolved nested grids. Following this methodology, tsunami inundation maps are currently being developed for a few of the most affected areas. In simulations, we use a robust and well-validated Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq long-wave model (FUNWAVE-TVD), on Cartesian or spherical grids. Coseismic tsunami sources are modeled using the standard Okada method. For landslide tsunamis, we first generate tsunami sources using a three-dimensional Navier-Stokes model (THETIS or NHWAVE). These models feature all relevant physical processes, such as frequency dispersion (very important for landslide sources), nonlinear wave effects during shoaling, and dissipation by bottom friction and wave breaking (via a shock-capturing TVD algorithm). In modeling coastal hazard from various sources, we find that tsunamigenic SMFs, which are the nearest tsunami sources and can potentially cause highly focused coastal runup, may control tsunami hazard for many east coast communities north of the Carolinas. In many cases, however, we find that a wide shallow continental shelf may cause significant dissipation of the shorter waves caused by SMFs and hence offer some protection. The accurate modeling of the delicate balance between nonlinear and dissipative processes governing such situations is currently being researched and will be the object of a separate presentation. Additionally, considerable efforts are being devoted to properly parameterizing extreme SMFs, which are also the object of collaborative work with geologists and marine geotechnical experts (reported independently).

High resolution tsunami modelling for the evaluation of potential risk areas in Setúbal (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, J.; Silva, A.; Leitão, P.

2011-08-01

The use of high resolution hydrodynamic modelling to simulate the potential effects of tsunami events can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas. Moreover, the consideration of complementary data such as the type of buildings, location of priority equipment, type of roads, enables mapping of the most vulnerable zones, computing of the expected damage on man-made structures, constrain of the definition of rescue areas and escape routes, adaptation of emergency plans and proper evaluation of the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipment. Such an approach was used to evaluate the specific risks associated with a potential occurrence of a tsunami event in the region of Setúbal (Portugal), which was one of the areas most seriously affected by the 1755 tsunami. In order to perform an evaluation of the hazard associated with the occurrence of a similar event, high resolution wave propagation simulations were performed considering different potential earthquake sources with different magnitudes. Based on these simulations, detailed inundation maps associated with the different events were produced. These results were combined with the available information on the vulnerability of the local infrastructures (building types, roads and streets characteristics, priority buildings) in order to impose restrictions in the production of high-scale potential damage maps, escape routes and emergency routes maps.

Computerized Workstation for Tsunami Hazard Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavrentiev-Jr, Mikhail; Marchuk, Andrey; Romanenko, Alexey; Simonov, Konstantin; Titov, Vasiliy

2010-05-01

We present general structure and functionality of the proposed Computerized Workstation for Tsunami Hazard Monitoring (CWTHM). The tool allows interactive monitoring of hazard, tsunami risk assessment, and mitigation - at all stages, from the period of strong tsunamigenic earthquake preparation to inundation of the defended coastal areas. CWTHM is a software-hardware complex with a set of software applications, optimized to achieve best performance on hardware platforms in use. The complex is calibrated for selected tsunami source zone(s) and coastal zone(s) to be defended. The number of zones (both source and coastal) is determined, or restricted, by available hardware resources. The presented complex performs monitoring of selected tsunami source zone via the Internet. The authors developed original algorithms, which enable detection of the preparation zone of the strong underwater earthquake automatically. For the so-determined zone the event time, magnitude and spatial location of tsunami source are evaluated by means of energy of the seismic precursors (foreshocks) analysis. All the above parameters are updated after each foreshock. Once preparing event is detected, several scenarios are forecasted for wave amplitude parameters as well as the inundation zone. Estimations include the lowest and the highest wave amplitudes and the least and the most inundation zone. In addition to that, the most probable case is calculated. In case of multiple defended coastal zones, forecasts and estimates can be done in parallel. Each time the simulated model wave reaches deep ocean buoys or tidal gauge, expected values of wave parameters and inundation zones are updated with historical events information and pre-calculated scenarios. The Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) software package is used for mathematical simulation. The authors suggest code acceleration for deep water wave propagation. As a result, performance is 15 times faster compared to MOST, original version. Performance gain is achieved by compiler options, use of optimized libraries, and advantages of OpenMP parallel technology. Moreover, it is possible to achieve 100 times code acceleration by using modern Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Parallel evaluation of inundation zones for multiple coastal zones is also available. All computer codes can be easily assembled under MS Windows and Unix OS family. Although software is virtually platform independent, the most performance gain is achieved while using the recommended hardware components. When the seismic event occurs, all valuable parameters are updated with seismic data and wave propagation monitoring is enabled. As soon as the wave passes each deep ocean tsunameter, parameters of the initial displacement at source are updated from direct calculations based on original algorithms. For better source reconstruction, a combination of two methods is used: optimal unit source linear combination from preliminary calculated database and direct numerical inversion along the wave ray between real source and particular measurement buoys. Specific dissipation parameter along with the wave ray is also taken into account. During the entire wave propagation process the expected wave parameters and inundation zone(s) characteristics are updated with all available information. If recommended hardware components are used, monitoring results are available in real time. The suggested version of CWTHM has been tested by analyzing seismic precursors (foreshocks) and the measured tsunami waves at North Pacific for the Central Kuril's tsunamigenic earthquake of November 15, 2006.

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Luchuan

2015-04-01

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters Luchuan Ren, Jianwei Tian, Mingli Hong Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe, Heibei Province, 065201, P.R. China It is obvious that the uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights in offshore area are partly from uncertainties of the potential seismic tsunami source parameters. A global sensitivity analysis method on the maximum tsunami wave heights to the potential seismic source parameters is put forward in this paper. The tsunami wave heights are calculated by COMCOT ( the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model), on the assumption that an earthquake with magnitude MW8.0 occurred at the northern fault segment along the Manila Trench and triggered a tsunami in the South China Sea. We select the simulated results of maximum tsunami wave heights at specific sites in offshore area to verify the validity of the method proposed in this paper. For ranking importance order of the uncertainties of potential seismic source parameters (the earthquake's magnitude, the focal depth, the strike angle, dip angle and slip angle etc..) in generating uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights, we chose Morris method to analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to the aforementioned parameters, and give several qualitative descriptions of nonlinear or linear effects of them on the maximum tsunami wave heights. We quantitatively analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to these parameters and the interaction effects among these parameters on the maximum tsunami wave heights by means of the extended FAST method afterward. The results shows that the maximum tsunami wave heights are very sensitive to the earthquake magnitude, followed successively by the epicenter location, the strike angle and dip angle, the interactions effect between the sensitive parameters are very obvious at specific site in offshore area, and there exist differences in importance order in generating uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights for same group parameters at different specific sites in offshore area. These results are helpful to deeply understand the relationship between the tsunami wave heights and the seismic tsunami source parameters. Keywords: Global sensitivity analysis; Tsunami wave height; Potential seismic tsunami source parameter; Morris method; Extended FAST method

Fusion of real-time simulation, sensing, and geo-informatics in assessing tsunami impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshimura, S.; Inoue, T.; Hino, R.; Ohta, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Musa, A.; Murashima, Y.; Gokon, H.

2015-12-01

Bringing together state-of-the-art high-performance computing, remote sensing and spatial information sciences, we establish a method of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting, damage estimation and mapping to enhance disaster response. Right after a major (near field) earthquake is triggered, we perform a real-time tsunami inundation forecasting with use of high-performance computing platform (Koshimura et al., 2014). Using Tohoku University's vector supercomputer, we accomplished "10-10-10 challenge", to complete tsunami source determination in 10 minutes, tsunami inundation modeling in 10 minutes with 10 m grid resolution. Given the maximum flow depth distribution, we perform quantitative estimation of exposed population using census data and mobile phone data, and the numbers of potential death and damaged structures by applying tsunami fragility curve. After the potential tsunami-affected areas are estimated, the analysis gets focused and moves on to the "detection" phase using remote sensing. Recent advances of remote sensing technologies expand capabilities of detecting spatial extent of tsunami affected area and structural damage. Especially, a semi-automated method to estimate building damage in tsunami affected areas is developed using pre- and post-event high-resolution SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data. The method is verified through the case studies in the 2011 Tohoku and other potential tsunami scenarios, and the prototype system development is now underway in Kochi prefecture, one of at-risk coastal city against Nankai trough earthquake. In the trial operation, we verify the capability of the method as a new tsunami early warning and response system for stakeholders and responders.

The Big Splash: Tsunami from Large Asteroid and Comet Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hills, J.; Goda, M.

Asteroid and comet impacts produce a large range of damage. Tsunami may produce most of the economic damage in large asteroid impacts. Large asteroid impacts produce worldwide darkness lasting several months that may kill more people by mass starvation, especially in developing countries, than would tsunami, but the dust should not severely affect economic infrastructure. The tsunami may even kill more people in developed countries with large coastal populations, such as the United States, than the starvation resulting from darkness. We have been determining which regions of Earth are most susceptible to asteroid tsunami by simulating the effect of a large asteroid impact into mid-ocean. We have modeled the effect of midAtlantic and midPacific impacts that produce craters 300 to 150 km in diameter. A KT-size impactor would cause the larger of these craters. We used a computer code that has successfully determined the runup and inundation from historical earthquake-generated tsunami. The code has been progressively improved to eliminate previous problems at the domain boundaries, so it now runs until the tsunami inundation is complete. We find that the larger of these two midAtlantic impacts would engulf the entire Florida Peninsula. The smaller one would inundate the eastern third of the peninsula while a tsunami passing through the Gulf of Cuba would inundate the West Coast of Florida. Impacts at three different sites in the Pacific show the great vulnerability of Tokyo and its surroundings to asteroid tsunami. Mainland Asia is relatively protected from asteroid tsunami. In Europe, the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic Providences of France are highly vulnerable to asteroid tsunami.

A method to estimate expected fatalities and economic loss of buildings in an urban environment as a step toward tsunami risk assessment: an application to the city of Siracusa, Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Accorsi, Eleonora; Tinti, Stefano

2016-04-01

Siracusa, an important city of the south-east Sicily, is located in an area highly exposed to the danger of tsunami, local and remote. Among the many events that affected this area those with a major effect are the AD 365 tsunami generated by an earthquake in the Western Hellenic Arc, the event of 11 January 1693, following an earthquake in the area of Augusta, and the tsunami of 28 December 1908 generated in the Messina strait. The aim of this study is to evaluate the number of exposed people and of fatalities as well as the type of damage to constructions and the associated loss of economic value in case of a tsunami, based on a simple tsunami scenario, i.e. on assuming a uniform inundation level of 5 m. This figure is considered appropriate for this preliminary tsunami loss analysis since it is compatible with historical tsunami observations and is also supported by recent tsunami hazard studies carried out for this area (Armigliato et al., 2015). The main physical tsunami parameter used in computations is the water column, which is merely the difference between the assumed inundation level and the topographic altitude. We use numerical geo-referenced 1:2000 maps providing a database of constructions in the area of Siracusa together with data from national and local statistical institutions to make estimates on the number and type of buildings and on the number of people that may be found in the inundation area in different periods of the year, discriminating between residents and tourists. Using a variant of the Terrier et al. (2012) table and tsunami mortality curves proposed by Koshimura et al. (2009) we are able to estimate expected fatalities with tsunami inundation reaching at most the first floor of buildings. We calculate economic loss by taking into account both residential buildings and commercial-industrial structures and data from the real estate market. This study is funded by the EU Project ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe", Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3)

Influence of the Numerical Scheme on the Solution Quality of the SWE for Tsunami Numerical Codes: The Tohoku-Oki, 2011Example.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, C.; Clain, S.; Figueiredo, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M. A.

2015-12-01

Numerical tools turn to be very important for scenario evaluations of hazardous phenomena such as tsunami. Nevertheless, the predictions highly depends on the numerical tool quality and the design of efficient numerical schemes still receives important attention to provide robust and accurate solutions. In this study we propose a comparative study between the efficiency of two volume finite numerical codes with second-order discretization implemented with different method to solve the non-conservative shallow water equations, the MUSCL (Monotonic Upstream-Centered Scheme for Conservation Laws) and the MOOD methods (Multi-dimensional Optimal Order Detection) which optimize the accuracy of the approximation in function of the solution local smoothness. The MUSCL is based on a priori criteria where the limiting procedure is performed before updated the solution to the next time-step leading to non-necessary accuracy reduction. On the contrary, the new MOOD technique uses a posteriori detectors to prevent the solution from oscillating in the vicinity of the discontinuities. Indeed, a candidate solution is computed and corrections are performed only for the cells where non-physical oscillations are detected. Using a simple one-dimensional analytical benchmark, 'Single wave on a sloping beach', we show that the classical 1D shallow-water system can be accurately solved with the finite volume method equipped with the MOOD technique and provide better approximation with sharper shock and less numerical diffusion. For the code validation, we also use the Tohoku-Oki 2011 tsunami and reproduce two DART records, demonstrating that the quality of the solution may deeply interfere with the scenario one can assess. This work is funded by the Portugal-France research agreement, through the research project GEONUM FCT-ANR/MAT-NAN/0122/2012.Numerical tools turn to be very important for scenario evaluations of hazardous phenomena such as tsunami. Nevertheless, the predictions highly depends on the numerical tool quality and the design of efficient numerical schemes still receives important attention to provide robust and accurate solutions. In this study we propose a comparative study between the efficiency of two volume finite numerical codes with second-order discretization implemented with different method to solve the non-conservative shallow water equations, the MUSCL (Monotonic Upstream-Centered Scheme for Conservation Laws) and the MOOD methods (Multi-dimensional Optimal Order Detection) which optimize the accuracy of the approximation in function of the solution local smoothness. The MUSCL is based on a priori criteria where the limiting procedure is performed before updated the solution to the next time-step leading to non-necessary accuracy reduction. On the contrary, the new MOOD technique uses a posteriori detectors to prevent the solution from oscillating in the vicinity of the discontinuities. Indeed, a candidate solution is computed and corrections are performed only for the cells where non-physical oscillations are detected. Using a simple one-dimensional analytical benchmark, 'Single wave on a sloping beach', we show that the classical 1D shallow-water system can be accurately solved with the finite volume method equipped with the MOOD technique and provide better approximation with sharper shock and less numerical diffusion. For the code validation, we also use the Tohoku-Oki 2011 tsunami and reproduce two DART records, demonstrating that the quality of the solution may deeply interfere with the scenario one can assess. This work is funded by the Portugal-France research agreement, through the research project GEONUM FCT-ANR/MAT-NAN/0122/2012.

Fault Slip Distribution of the 2016 Fukushima Earthquake Estimated from Tsunami Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Satake, Kenji; Shinohara, Masanao; Sakai, Shin'ichi; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2017-08-01

The 2016 Fukushima normal-faulting earthquake (Mjma 7.4) occurred 40 km off the coast of Fukushima within the upper crust. The earthquake generated a moderate tsunami which was recorded by coastal tide gauges and offshore pressure gauges. First, the sensitivity of tsunami waveforms to fault dimensions and depths was examined and the best size and depth were determined. Tsunami waveforms computed based on four available focal mechanisms showed that a simple fault striking northeast-southwest and dipping southeast (strike = 45°, dip = 41°, rake = -95°) yielded the best fit to the observed waveforms. This fault geometry was then used in a tsunami waveform inversion to estimate the fault slip distribution. A large slip of 3.5 m was located near the surface and the major slip region covered an area of 20 km × 20 km. The seismic moment, calculated assuming a rigidity of 2.7 × 1010 N/m2 was 3.70 × 1019 Nm, equivalent to Mw = 7.0. This is slightly larger than the moments from the moment tensor solutions (Mw 6.9). Large secondary tsunami peaks arrived approximately an hour after clear initial peaks were recorded by the offshore pressure gauges and the Sendai and Ofunato tide gauges. Our tsunami propagation model suggests that the large secondary tsunami signals were from tsunami waves reflected off the Fukushima coast. A rather large tsunami amplitude of 75 cm at Kuji, about 300 km north of the source, was comparable to those recorded at stations located much closer to the epicenter, such as Soma and Onahama. Tsunami simulations and ray tracing for both real and artificial bathymetry indicate that a significant portion of the tsunami wave was refracted to the coast located around Kuji and Miyako due to bathymetry effects.

Signals in the ionosphere generated by tsunami earthquakes: observations and modeling suppor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, L.; Sladen, A.; Mikesell, D.; Larmat, C. S.; Rakoto, V.; Remillieux, M.; Lee, R.; Khelfi, K.; Lognonne, P. H.; Astafyeva, E.

2017-12-01

Forecasting systems failed to predict the magnitude of the 2011 great tsunami in Japan due to the difficulty and cost of instrumenting the ocean with high-quality and dense networks. Melgar et al. (2013) show that using all of the conventional data (inland seismic, geodetic, and tsunami gauges) with the best inversion method still fails to predict the correct height of the tsunami before it breaks onto a coast near the epicenter (< 500 km). On the other hand, in the last decade, scientists have gathered convincing evidence of transient signals in the ionosphere Total Electron Content (TEC) observations that are associated to open ocean tsunami waves. Even though typical tsunami waves are only a few centimeters high, they are powerful enough to create atmospheric vibrations extending all the way to the ionosphere, 300 kilometers up in the atmosphere. Therefore, we are proposing to incorporate the ionospheric signals into tsunami early-warning systems. We anticipate that the method could be decisive for mitigating "tsunami earthquakes" which trigger tsunamis larger than expected from their short-period magnitude. These events are challenging to characterize as they rupture the near-trench subduction interface, in a distant region less constrained by onshore data. As a couple of devastating tsunami earthquakes happens per decade, they represent a real threat for onshore populations and a challenge for tsunami early-warning systems. We will present the TEC observations of the recent Java 2006 and Mentawaii 2010 tsunami earthquakes and base our analysis on acoustic ray tracing, normal modes summation and the simulation code SPECFEM, which solves the wave equation in coupled acoustic (ocean, atmosphere) and elastic (solid earth) domains. Rupture histories are entered as finite source models, which will allow us to evaluate the effect of a relatively slow rupture on the surrounding ocean and atmosphere.

New study on the 1941 Gloria Fault earthquake and tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, Maria Ana; Miranda, Jorge Miguel; Batlló, Josep; Lisboa, Filipe; Luis, Joaquim; Maciá, Ramon

2016-08-01

The M ˜ 8.3-8.4 25 November 1941 was one of the largest submarine strike-slip earthquakes ever recorded in the Northeast (NE) Atlantic basin. This event occurred along the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary between the Azores and the Strait of Gibraltar. After the earthquake, the tide stations in the NE Atlantic recorded a small tsunami with maximum amplitudes of 40 cm peak to through in the Azores and Madeira islands. In this study, we present a re-evaluation of the earthquake epicentre location using seismological data not included in previous studies. We invert the tsunami travel times to obtain a preliminary tsunami source location using the backward ray tracing (BRT) technique. We invert the tsunami waveforms to infer the initial sea surface displacement using empirical Green's functions, without prior assumptions about the geometry of the source. The results of the BRT simulation locate the tsunami source quite close to the new epicentre. This fact suggests that the co-seismic deformation of the earthquake induced the tsunami. The waveform inversion of tsunami data favours the conclusion that the earthquake ruptured an approximately 160 km segment of the plate boundary, in the eastern section of the Gloria Fault between -20.249 and -18.630° E. The results presented here contribute to the evaluation of tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic basin.

Tsunami waveform inversion of the 2007 Bengkulu, southern Sumatra earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Y.; Satake, K.

2007-12-01

We have performed tsunami waveform inversion for the 2007 Bengkulu, southern Sumatra earthquake on September 12, 2007 (4.520°S, 101.374°E, Mw=8.4 at 11:10:26 UTC according to USGS), and found that the large slips were located on deeper part (> 20 km) of the fault plane, more than 100 km from the trench axis. The deep slip might have contributed the relatively small tsunami for its earthquake size. The largest slips more than 6 m were located beneath Pagais Islands, about 100-200 km northwest of the epicenter. The obtained slip distribution yields a total seismic moment of 3.6 × 1021 Nm (Mw = 8.3). The tsunami generated by this earthquake was recorded at many tide gauge stations located in and around the Indian Ocean. The DART system installed in deep ocean and maintained by Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) also captured this tsunami. We have downloaded the tsunami waveforms at 16 stations from University of Hawaii Sea Level Center's (UHSLC) and National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) web sites. The observed tsunami records indicate that the tsunami amplitudes were less than several tens of cm at most stations, around 1 m at Padang, nearest station to the source, and a few cm at DART station. For the tsunami waveforms inversion, we divided the source area (length: 250 km, width: 200 km) into 20 subfaults. Tsunami waveforms from each subfault (50 km × 50 km) or Greens functions were calculated by numerically solving the linear shallow-water long-wave equations. We adopted the focal mechanism of Global CMT solution (strike: 327°, dip: 12°, rake: 114°) for each subfault, and assumed a rise time of 1 min. The computed tsunami waveforms from the estimated slip distribution explain the observed waveforms at most of tide gauges and DART station.