Improved tsunami impact assessments: validation, comparison and the integration of hydrodynamic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarbotton, C.; Walters, R. A.; Goff, J. R.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Turner, I. L.

2012-12-01

As communities become increasingly aware of the risks posed by tsunamis, it is important to develop methods for predicting the damage they can cause to the built environment. This will provide the information needed to make informed decisions regarding land-use, building codes, and evacuation. At present, a number of tsunami-building vulnerability assessment models are available, however, the relative infrequency and destructive nature of tsunamis has long made it difficult to obtain the data necessary to adequately validate and compare them. Further complicating matters is that the inundation of a tsunami in the built environment is very difficult model, as is the response of a building to the hydraulic forces that a tsunami generates. Variations in building design and condition will significantly affect a building's susceptibility to damage. Likewise, factors affecting the flow conditions at a building (i.e. surrounding structures and topography), will greatly affect its exposure. This presents significant challenges for practitioners, as they are often left in the dark on how to use hazard modeling and vulnerability assessment techniques together to conduct the community-scale impact studies required for tsunami planning. This paper presents the results of an in-depth case study of Yuriage, Miyagi Prefecture - a coastal city in Japan that was badly damaged by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. The aim of the study was twofold: 1) To test and compare existing tsunami vulnerability assessment models and 2) To more effectively utilize hydrodynamic models in the context of tsunami impact studies. Following the 2011 Tohoku event, an unprecedented quantity of field data, imagery and video emerged. Yuriage in particular, features a comprehensive set of street level Google Street View imagery, available both before and after the event. This has enabled the collection of a large dataset describing the characteristics of the buildings existing before the event as well the

General Vulnerability and Exposure Profile to Tsunami in Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, R.; Huérfano-Moreno, V.

2012-12-01

The Puerto Rico archipelago, located in the seismically active Caribbean region, has been directly affected by tsunamis in the last two centuries. The M 7.3 tsunamigenic earthquake, which occurred on October 11, 1918, caused $29 million in damage, death of 116 people and 100 residents were reported as missing. Presently, deficiencies on urban planning have induced an increase on the number of vulnerable people living inside the tsunami flood areas. Tsunami-prone areas have been delimited for Puerto Rico based on numerical tsunami modeling. However, the demographic, social and physical (e.g. critical and essential facilities) characteristics of these areas have not been documented in detail. We are conducting a municipality and community-level tsunami vulnerability and exposure study using Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. The results of our study are being integrated into the Puerto Rico Disaster Decision Support Tool (DDST). The DDST is a tool that brings access, at no cost, to a variety of updated geo-referenced information for Puerto Rico. This tool provides internet-based scalable maps that will aid emergency managers and decision-makers on their responsibilities and will improve Puerto Rico communities' resilience against tsunami hazard. This project aims to provide an initial estimate of Puerto Rico vulnerability and exposure to tsunami and brings to the community a technological tool that will help increase their awareness of this hazard and to assist them on their decisions.

Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Spielman, Seth; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.

2015-01-01

Many coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by local (or near-field) tsunamis that could inundate low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. Although the hazard and sustainability literature often frames vulnerability conceptually as a multidimensional issue involving exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to a hazard, assessments often focus on one element or do not recognize the hazard context. We introduce an analytical framework for describing variations in population vulnerability to tsunami hazards that integrates (i) geospatial approaches to identify the number and characteristics of people in hazard zones, (ii) anisotropic path distance models to estimate evacuation travel times to safety, and (iii) cluster analysis to classify communities with similar vulnerability. We demonstrate this approach by classifying 49 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties from northern California to northern Washington that are directly threatened by tsunami waves associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results suggest three primary community groups: (i) relatively low numbers of exposed populations with varied demographic sensitivities, (ii) high numbers of exposed populations but sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival, and (iii) moderate numbers of exposed populations but insufficient time to evacuate. Results can be used to enhance general hazard-awareness efforts with targeted interventions, such as education and outreach tailored to local demographics, evacuation training, and/or vertical evacuation refuges.

Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest.

PubMed

Wood, Nathan J; Jones, Jeanne; Spielman, Seth; Schmidtlein, Mathew C

2015-04-28

Many coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by local (or near-field) tsunamis that could inundate low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. Although the hazard and sustainability literature often frames vulnerability conceptually as a multidimensional issue involving exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to a hazard, assessments often focus on one element or do not recognize the hazard context. We introduce an analytical framework for describing variations in population vulnerability to tsunami hazards that integrates (i) geospatial approaches to identify the number and characteristics of people in hazard zones, (ii) anisotropic path distance models to estimate evacuation travel times to safety, and (iii) cluster analysis to classify communities with similar vulnerability. We demonstrate this approach by classifying 49 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties from northern California to northern Washington that are directly threatened by tsunami waves associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results suggest three primary community groups: (i) relatively low numbers of exposed populations with varied demographic sensitivities, (ii) high numbers of exposed populations but sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival, and (iii) moderate numbers of exposed populations but insufficient time to evacuate. Results can be used to enhance general hazard-awareness efforts with targeted interventions, such as education and outreach tailored to local demographics, evacuation training, and/or vertical evacuation refuges.

Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest

PubMed Central

Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne; Spielman, Seth; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.

2015-01-01

Many coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by local (or near-field) tsunamis that could inundate low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. Although the hazard and sustainability literature often frames vulnerability conceptually as a multidimensional issue involving exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to a hazard, assessments often focus on one element or do not recognize the hazard context. We introduce an analytical framework for describing variations in population vulnerability to tsunami hazards that integrates (i) geospatial approaches to identify the number and characteristics of people in hazard zones, (ii) anisotropic path distance models to estimate evacuation travel times to safety, and (iii) cluster analysis to classify communities with similar vulnerability. We demonstrate this approach by classifying 49 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties from northern California to northern Washington that are directly threatened by tsunami waves associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results suggest three primary community groups: (i) relatively low numbers of exposed populations with varied demographic sensitivities, (ii) high numbers of exposed populations but sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival, and (iii) moderate numbers of exposed populations but insufficient time to evacuate. Results can be used to enhance general hazard-awareness efforts with targeted interventions, such as education and outreach tailored to local demographics, evacuation training, and/or vertical evacuation refuges. PMID:25870283

Tsunami hazard, vulnerability and impact assessment of the coastal area of Rabat, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesne, Olivia; Mangin, Antoine; Renou, Camille; Rouffi, Frédéric; Atillah, Abderrahman; Moudni, Hicham

2010-05-01

Among African countries, Morocco is probably one of the most exposed to tsunami hazard. Indeed, Morocco is integrated in the particular geodynamic context of the northern African margin characterized by the existence of the Azores-Gibraltar fault separating two active tectonic plates: the African and the Eurasian plates. This area generated and still generates many large earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 6. The Moroccan Atlantic coasts are thus exposed to tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring offshore. Tsunamis generated in this area are not frequent but can be really disastrous and could have a huge impact. In the framework of the SCHEMA project, a 3 year European project, we studied the consequences on the Moroccan coastal area of two potential tsunami scenarios, applying the generic methodology developed during the project for building tsunami vulnerability and impact maps. The study focuses on the "Rabat Zaïr" region. Centred on the Bouregreg Valley, this study area encompasses three main coastal and densely populated towns of Morocco: Rabat (capital), Salé and Temara. Using a combination of numerical modelling, field surveys, earth observation and GIS data, the risk has been evaluated for this highly vulnerable area (flat topography, small beaches with many tourists in summer, presence of several bridges on the Bouregreg river separating Rabat and Salé, presence of a dam upstream the 2 cities, and development of a new residential and touristic complex on the coastline and in the vicinity of the estuary). Two scenarios of tsunami have been studied to estimate the hazard on the coastal zone of Rabat: a worst case scenario based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 as well as a moderate scenario based on the historical Portugal earthquake of 1969. For each scenario, numerical models allowed to produce inundation maps consisting of inundation limits as well as maximum water heights. Land use data together with earth observation data interpretation

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aliaga, B.; Hettiarachchi, S.; González, M.; Medina, R.

2014-12-01

After several tsunami events with disastrous consequences around the world, coastal countries have realized the need to be prepared to minimize human mortality and damage to coastal infrastructures, livelihoods and resources. The international scientific community is striving to develop and validate methodologies for tsunami hazard and vulnerability and risk assessments. The vulnerability of coastal communities is usually assessed through the definition of sets of indicators based on previous literature and/or post-tsunami reports, as well as on the available data for the study site. The aim of this work is to validate in light of past tsunami events the indicators currently proposed by the scientific community to measure human vulnerability, to improve their definition and selection as well as to analyse their validity for different country development profiles. The events analyzed are the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami, the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2009 Samoan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The results obtained highlight the need for considering both permanent and temporal human exposure, the former requiring some hazard numerical modelling while the latter is related to site-specific livelihoods, cultural traditions and gender roles. The most vulnerable age groups are the elderly adults and the children, the former having much higher mortality rates. Female mortality is not always higher than male and not always related to dependency issues. Higher numbers of disabled people do not always translate into higher numbers of victims. Besides, it is clear that mortality is not only related to the characteristics of the population but also the buildings. A high correlation has been found between the affected buildings and the number of victims, being very high for completely damaged buildings. Distance to the sea, building materials and expected water depths are highly determining factors regarding the type of damage in buildings.

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aliaga, B.; Hettiarachchi, S.; González, M.; Medina, R.

2015-07-01

After several tsunami events with disastrous consequences around the world, coastal countries have realized the need to be prepared to minimize human mortality and damage to coastal infrastructures, livelihoods and resources. The international scientific community is striving to develop and validate methodologies for tsunami hazard and vulnerability and risk assessments. The vulnerability of coastal communities is usually assessed through the definition of sets of indicators based on previous literature and/or post-tsunami reports, as well as on the available data for the study site. The aim of this work is to validate, in light of past tsunami events, the indicators currently proposed by the scientific community to measure human vulnerability, to improve their definition and selection as well as to analyse their validity for different country development profiles. The events analysed are the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami, the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2009 Samoan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The results obtained highlight the need for considering both permanent and temporal human exposure, the former requiring some hazard numerical modelling, while the latter is related to site-specific livelihoods, cultural traditions and gender roles. The most vulnerable age groups are the elderly and children, the former having much higher mortality rates. Female mortality is not always higher than male mortality and not always related to dependency issues. Higher numbers of disabled people do not always translate into higher numbers of victims. Besides, it is clear that mortality is not only related to the characteristics of the population but also of the buildings. A high correlation has been found between the affected buildings and the number of victims, being very high for completely damaged buildings. Distance to the sea, building materials and expected water depths are important determining factors regarding the type of damage to buildings.

The Components of Community Awareness and Preparedness; its Effects on the Reduction of Tsunami Vulnerability and Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, Mehmet; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet

2017-04-01

The resilience of coastal communities against tsunamis are dependent on preparedness of the communities. Preparedness covers social and structural components which increases with the awareness in the community against tsunamis. Therefore, proper evaluation of all components of preparedness will help communities to reduce the adverse effects of tsunamis and increase the overall resilience of communities. On the other hand, the complexity of the metropolitan life with its social and structural components necessitates explicit vulnerability assessments for proper determination of tsunami risk, and development of proper mitigation strategies and recovery plans. Assessing the vulnerability and resilience level of a region against tsunamis and efforts for reducing the tsunami risk are the key components of disaster management. Since increasing the awareness of coastal communities against tsunamis is one of the main objectives of disaster management, then it should be considered as one of the parameter in tsunami risk analysis. In the method named MetHuVA (METU - Metropolitan Human Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment) proposed by Cankaya et al., (2016) and Tufekci et al., (2016), the awareness and preparedness level of the community is revealed to be an indispensable parameter with a great effect on tsunami risk. According to the results obtained from those studies, it becomes important that the awareness and preparedness parameter (n) must be analyzed by considering their interaction and all related components. While increasing awareness can be achieved, vulnerability and risk will be reduced. In this study the components of awareness and preparedness parameter (n) is analyzed in different categories by considering administrative, social, educational, economic and structural preparedness of the coastal communities. Hence the proposed awareness and preparedness parameter can properly be analyzed and further improvements can be achieved in vulnerability and risk analysis

Vulnerability of the Built Environment to Tsunamis - an Overview of Where We Are in 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroff, C. M.

2012-12-01

The last twenty years have seen great strides in the understanding and prediction of tsunami behavior. Though study of these disasters has always been motivated by the need to reduce casualties and damage, early work focused primarily on predicting magnitude, propagation and inundation from tsunami waves. Investigations have expanded to include a burgeoning field concentrated on the landward effects of tsunamis on communities: examining building and infrastructure vulnerability, assessing the probabilities of varying levels of damage and applying these findings to planning of land-use, development, evacuation and response. Catastrophic events of the last decade in the Indian Ocean and Japan have brought these issues to the fore and raise the question: Where are we in our understanding of vulnerability to tsunamis? What have we learned? What are the lessons that the most recent events teach us? This overview summarizes recent investigations of the vulnerability of engineered structures to damage from tsunamis - from individual buildings of various uses to larger facilities and structural systems. Examples are provided of both successes and failures in design for tsunami resistance. Vulnerability of critical infrastructure and lifelines is discussed in the context of tsunamis in Sumatra, Chile and Japan. This includes the ability of critical systems to function during and immediately after a disaster as well as the short and long term resilience of utilities, services and coastal facilities after tsunamis. Recent work on probabilistic prediction of damage and development of fragility functions is summarized for the Chile 2010 and Japan 2011 tsunamis. Finally, a commentary is presented on building vulnerability issues as they relate to land use planning, building design and codes and vertical evacuation planning.; Three views of the Oya Train Station in Miyagi Prefecture: Prior to (top), two months after (middle), and one year after (bottom) the March 11, 2011 Tohoku

Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

2012-04-01

arrival time, maximum flooding level or "Run-up", hazard degree for people based on incipient velocity for people instability) along the coast of El Salvador and at some relevant locations (high resolution analysis). The VULNERABILITY assessment of the exposed elements (Phase II of the project) is based on an integrated approach which is essential given the complexity of coastal areas. A set of indices and indicators have been developed supported by a Geographic Information System that allows graphical representation of physical, environmental, social, economic and infrastructure characteristics of the coast. Different spatial and temporal scales have been also considered in this project to calculate the risk, since both factors would change the amount and type of exposed elements and their vulnerability. A final global RISK analysis (hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis for each dimension -human, environmental, socioeconomic and infrastructure- and both temporal and spatial scales) allows identifying weaknesses, gaps and special needs to cope with a tsunami event and, therefore, will result in a set of risk reduction measures, including adaptation and mitigation measures.

Preliminary vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood by Puerto Vallarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trejo-Gómez, E.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Ortiz, M.; Escudero, C. R.; CA-UdG-276 Sisvoc

2013-05-01

Jalisco coast is susceptible to local tsunami due to the occurrence of large earthquakes. In 1932 occurred three by largest earthquakes. Evidence suggests that one of them caused by offshore subsidence of sediments deposited by Armeria River. For the tsunamis 1932 have not been studied the seismic source. On October 9, 1995, occurred a large earthquake (Mw= 8.0) producing a tsunami with run up height up ≤ 5 m. This event affected Tenacatita Bay and many small villages along the coast of Jalisco and Colima. Using seismic source parameters, we simulated 1995 tsunami and estimated the maximum wave height. We compared the our results with 20 field measures 20 taked during 1995 along the south cost of Jalisco State, from Chalacatepec to Barra de Navidad. Similar seismic source parameters used for tsunami 1995 simulation was used as reference for simulating a hypothetical seismic source front Puerto Vallarta. We assumed that the fracture occurs in the gap for the north cost of Jalisco. Ten sites were distributed to cover the Banderas Bay, as theoretical pressure sensors, were estimated the maximum wave height and time to arrived at cost. After we delimited zones hazard zones by floods on digital model terrain, a graphic scale 1:20,000. At the moment, we have already included information by hazard caused by hypothetical tsunami in Puerto Vallarta. The hazard zones by flood were the north of Puerto Vallarta, as Ameca, El Salado, El Pitillal and Camarones. The initial wave height could be ≤ 1 m, 15 minutes after earthquake, in Pitillal zone. We estimated for Puerto Vallarta the maximum flood area was in El Salado zone, ≤ 2 km, with the maximum wave height > 3 m to ≤ 4.8 m at 25 and 75 minutes. We estimated a previous vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood; it was based on the spatial distribution of socio-economic data from INEGI. We estimated a low vulnerability in El Salado and height vulnerability for El Pitillal and Ameca.

Tsunami vulnerability analysis in the coastal town of Catania, Sicily: methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano; Gallazzi, Sara; Tonini, Roberto; Zaniboni, Filippo

2010-05-01

Catania lies on the eastern coast of Sicily and is one of the most important towns in Sicily as regards history, tourism and industry. Recent analyses conducted in the frame of the project TRANSFER have shown that it is exposed not only to tsunamis generated locally, but also to distant tsunamis generated in the western Hellenic arc. In the frame of the European project SCHEMA different scenarios covering local sources such as the 11 January 1693 event and the 1908 case as well as remote sources such as the 365 AD tsunami have been explored through numerical modelling in order to assess the vulnerability of the area to tsunami attacks. One of the primary outcomes of the scenario analysis is the quantification of the inundation zones (location, extension along the coast and landward). Taking the modelling results on flooding as input data, the analysis has focussed on the geomorphological characteristics of the coasts and on the buildings and infrastructure typology to make evaluation of the vulnerability level of the Catania area. The coast to the south of the harbour of Catania is low and characterized by a mild slope: topography reaches the altitude of 10 m between 300-750 m distance from the shoreline. Building density is low, and generally tourist structures prevail on residential houses. The zone north of the harbour is high-coast, with 10 m isoline usually close to the coastline, and little possibility for flood to penetrate deep inland. Here there are three small marinas with the corresponding services and infrastructure around, and the city quarters consists of residential buildings. Vulnerability assessment has been carried out by following the methodology developed by the SCHEMA consortium, distinguishing between primary (type and material) and secondary criteria (e.g. ground, age, foundation, orientation, etc.) for buildings, and by adopting a building damage matrix, basically depending on building type and water inundation depth. Data needed for such

Assessing Tsunami Vulnerabilities of Geographies with Shallow Water Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aras, Rifat; Shen, Yuzhong

2012-01-01

Tsunami preparedness is crucial for saving human lives in case of disasters that involve massive water movement. In this work, we develop a framework for visual assessment of tsunami preparedness of geographies. Shallow water equations (also called Saint Venant equations) are a set of hyperbolic partial differential equations that are derived by depth-integrating the Navier-Stokes equations and provide a great abstraction of water masses that have lower depths compared to their free surface area. Our specific contribution in this study is to use Microsoft's XNA Game Studio to import underwater and shore line geographies, create different tsunami scenarios, and visualize the propagation of the waves and their impact on the shore line geography. Most importantly, we utilized the computational power of graphical processing units (GPUs) as HLSL based shader files and delegated all of the heavy computations to the GPU. Finally, we also conducted a validation study, in which we have tested our model against a controlled shallow water experiment. We believe that such a framework with an easy to use interface that is based on readily available software libraries, which are widely available and easily distributable, would encourage not only researchers, but also educators to showcase ideas.

Vulnerability of port and harbor communities to earthquake and tsunami hazards: The use of GIS in community hazard planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.

2004-01-01

AbstractEarthquakes and tsunamis pose significant threats to Pacific Northwest coastal port and harbor communities. Developing holistic mitigation and preparedness strategies to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage requires community-wide vulnerability assessments that transcend traditional site-specific analyses. The ability of a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate natural, socioeconomic, and hazards information makes it an ideal assessment tool to support community hazard planning efforts. This article summarizes how GIS was used to assess the vulnerability of an Oregon port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards, as part of a larger risk-reduction planning initiative. The primary purposes of the GIS were to highlight community vulnerability issues and to identify areas that both are susceptible to hazards and contain valued port and harbor community resources. Results of the GIS analyses can help decision makers with limited mitigation resources set priorities for increasing community resiliency to natural hazards.

Vulnerability assessment of a port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards: Integrating technical expert and stakeholder input

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

2002-01-01

Research suggests that the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis in the near future, posing a significant threat to the numerous ports and harbors along the coast. A collaborative, multiagency initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to these hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant, Washington Sea Grant, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center, and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy. One element of this research, planning, and outreach initiative is a natural hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness planning process that combines technical expertise with local stakeholder values and perceptions. This paper summarizes and examines one component of the process, the vulnerability assessment methodology, used in the pilot port and harbor community of Yaquina River, Oregon, as a case study of assessing vulnerability at the local level. In this community, stakeholders were most concerned with potential life loss and other nonstructural vulnerability issues, such as inadequate hazard awareness, communication, and response logistics, rather than structural issues, such as damage to specific buildings or infrastructure.

Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

2016-04-01

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

Reducing Vulnerability of Ports and Harbors to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

2002-01-01

Recent scientific research suggests the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes in the near future, both from distant and local sources, posing a significant threat to coastal communities. Damage could result from numerous earthquake-related hazards, such as severe ground shaking, soil liquefaction, landslides, land subsidence/uplift, and tsunami inundation. Because of their geographic location, ports and harbors are especially vulnerable to these hazards. Ports and harbors, however, are important components of many coastal communities, supporting numerous activities critical to the local and regional economy and possibly serving as vital post-event, response-recovery transportation links. A collaborative, multi-year initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to earthquake and tsunami hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant (OSG), Washington Sea Grant (WSG), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center (CSC), and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy (CSP). Specific products of this research, planning, and outreach initiative include a regional stakeholder issues and needs assessment, a community-based mitigation planning process, a Geographic Information System (GIS) — based vulnerability assessment methodology, an educational web-site and a regional data archive. This paper summarizes these efforts, including results of two pilot port-harbor community projects, one in Yaquina Bay, Oregon and the other in Sinclair Inlet, Washington. Finally, plans are outlined for outreach to other port and harbor communities in the Pacific Northwest and beyond, using "getting started" workshops and a web-based tutorial.

Tsunami Hazard in La Réunion Island (SW Indian Ocean): Scenario-Based Numerical Modelling on Vulnerable Coastal Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allgeyer, S.; Quentel, É.; Hébert, H.; Gailler, A.; Loevenbruck, A.

2017-08-01

Several major tsunamis have affected the southwest Indian Ocean area since the 2004 Sumatra event, and some of them (2005, 2006, 2007 and 2010) have hit La Réunion Island in the southwest Indian Ocean. However, tsunami hazard is not well defined for La Réunion Island where vulnerable coastlines can be exposed. This study offers a first tsunami hazard assesment for La Réunion Island. We first review the historical tsunami observations made on the coastlines, where high tsunami waves (2-3 m) have been reported on the western coast, especially during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Numerical models of historical scenarios yield results consistent with available observations on the coastal sites (the harbours of La Pointe des Galets and Saint-Paul). The 1833 Pagai earthquake and tsunami can be considered as the worst-case historical scenario for this area. In a second step, we assess the tsunami exposure by covering the major subduction zones with syntethic events of constant magnitude (8.7, 9.0 and 9.3). The aggregation of magnitude 8.7 scenarios all generate strong currents in the harbours (3-7 m s^{-1}) and about 2 m of tsunami maximum height without significant inundation. The analysis of the magnitude 9.0 events confirms that the main commercial harbour (Port Est) is more vulnerable than Port Ouest and that flooding in Saint-Paul is limited to the beach area and the river mouth. Finally, the magnitude 9.3 scenarios show limited inundations close to the beach and in the riverbed in Saint-Paul. More generally, the results confirm that for La Runion, the Sumatra subduction zone is the most threatening non-local source area for tsunami generation. This study also shows that far-field coastal sites should be prepared for tsunami hazard and that further work is needed to improve operational warning procedures. Forecast methods should be developed to provide tools to enable the authorities to anticipate the local effects of tsunamis and to evacuate the harbours in

Tsunami Loss Assessment For Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancilar, Ufuk; Cakti, Eser; Zulfikar, Can; Demircioglu, Mine; Erdik, Mustafa

2010-05-01

Tsunami risk and loss assessment incorporating with the inundation mapping in Istanbul and the Marmara Sea region are presented in this study. The city of Istanbul is under the threat of earthquakes expected to originate from the Main Marmara branch of North Anatolian Fault System. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard reached very high levels with 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the Main Marmara Fault. Istanbul is the biggest city of Marmara region as well as of Turkey with its almost 12 million inhabitants. It is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey and operates as the financial and trade hub of the country. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings, as well as that of lifelines including port and harbor structures in the country is questionable. These facts make the management of earthquake risks imperative for the reduction of physical and socio-economic losses. The level of expected tsunami hazard in Istanbul is low as compared to earthquake hazard. Yet the assets at risk along the shores of the city make a thorough assessment of tsunami risk imperative. Important residential and industrial centres exist along the shores of the Marmara Sea. Particularly along the northern and eastern shores we see an uninterrupted settlement pattern with industries, businesses, commercial centres and ports and harbours in between. Following the inundation maps resulting from deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses, vulnerability and risk analyses are presented and the socio-economic losses are estimated. This study is part of EU-supported FP6 project ‘TRANSFER'.

Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group

USGS Publications Warehouse

Real, Charles R.; Johnson, Laurie; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Kontar, Y.A.; Santiago-Fandiño, V.; Takahashi, T.

2014-01-01

California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Guam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcas, D.; Uslu, B.; Titov, V.; Chamberlin, C.

2008-12-01

The island of Guam is located approximately 1500 miles south of Japan, in the vicinity of the Mariana Trench. It is surrounded in close proximity by three subduction zones, Nankai-Taiwan, East Philippines and Mariana Trench that pose a considerable near to intermediate field tsunami threat. Tsunami catalogues list 14 tsunamigenic earthquake with Mw≥8.0 since 1900 only in this region, (Soloviev and Go, 1974; Lander, 1993; Iida, 1984; Lander and Lowell, 2002), however the island has not been significantly affected by some of the largest far-field events of the past century, such as the 1952 Kamchatka, 1960 Chile, and the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake. An assessment of the tsunami threat to the island from both near and far field sources, using forecast tools originally developed at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for real-time forecasting of tsunamis is presented here. Tide gauge records from 1952 Kamchatka, 1964 Alaska, and 1960 Chile earthquakes at Apra Harbor are used to validate our model set up, and to explain the limited impact of these historical events on Guam. Identification of worst-case scenarios, and determination of tsunamigenic effective source regions are presented for five vulnerable locations on the island via a tsunami sensitivity study. Apra Harbor is the site of a National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauge and the biggest harbor on the island. Tumon Bay, Pago Bay, Agana Bay and Inarajan Bay are densely populated areas that require careful investigation. The sensitivity study shows that earthquakes from Eastern Philippines present a major threat to west coast facing sites, whereas the Marina Trench poses the biggest concern to the east coast facing sites.

ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

2014-12-01

Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant

U.S. states and territories national tsunami hazard assessment, historic record and sources for waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, P. K.; Weaver, C.

2007-12-01

In 2005, the U.S. National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) released a joint report by the sub-committee on Disaster Reduction and the U.S. Group on Earth Observations titled Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action (Framework). The Framework outlines the President's&pstrategy for reducing the United States tsunami risk. The first specific action called for in the Framework is to "Develop standardized and coordinated tsunami hazard and risk assessments for all coastal regions of the United States and its territories." Since NOAA is the lead agency for providing tsunami forecasts and warnings and NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) catalogs information on global historic tsunamis, NOAA/NGDC was asked to take the lead in conducting the first national tsunami hazard assessment. Earthquakes or earthquake-generated landslides caused more than 85% of the tsunamis in the NGDC tsunami database. Since the United States Geological Survey (USGS) conducts research on earthquake hazards facing all of the United States and its territories, NGDC and USGS partnered together to conduct the first tsunami hazard assessment for the United States and its territories. A complete tsunami hazard and risk assessment consists of a hazard assessment, exposure and vulnerability assessment of buildings and people, and loss assessment. This report is an interim step towards a tsunami risk assessment. The goal of this report is provide a qualitative assessment of the United States tsunami hazard at the national level. Two different methods are used to assess the U.S. tsunami hazard. The first method involves a careful examination of the NGDC historical tsunami database. This resulted in a qualitative national tsunami hazard assessment based on the distribution of runup heights and the frequency of runups. Although tsunami deaths are a measure of risk rather than hazard, the known tsunami deaths found in the NGDC database search were compared with the

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.

2009-01-01

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Tsunami Risk in the NE Atlantic: Pilot Study for Algarve Portugal and Applications for future TWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Catita, C.; Carrilho, F.; Matias, L.

2012-04-01

Tsunami risk assessment is an essential component of any Tsunami Early Warning System due to its significant contribution to the disaster reduction by providing valuable information that serve as basis for mitigation preparedness and strategies. Generally, risk assessment combines the outputs of the hazard and the vulnerability assessment for considered exposed elements. In the NE Atlantic region, the tsunami hazard is relatively well established through compilation of tsunami historical events, evaluation of tsunamigenic sources and impact computations for site-specific coastal areas. While, tsunami vulnerability remains poorly investigated in spite of some few studies that focused on limited coastal areas of the Gulf of Cadiz region. This work seeks to present a pilot study for tsunami risk assessment that covers about 170 km of coasts of Algarve region, south of Portugal. This area of high coastal occupation and touristic activities was strongly impacted by the 1755 tsunami event as reported in various historical documents. An approach based upon a combination of tsunami hazard and vulnerability is developed in order to take into account the dynamic aspect of tsunami risk in the region that depends on the variation of hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements from a coastal point to other. Hazard study is based upon the consideration of most credible earthquake scenarios and the derivation of hazard maps through hydrodynamic modeling of inundation and tsunami arrival time. The vulnerability assessment is performed by: i) the analysis of the occupation and the population density, ii) derivation of evacuation maps and safe shelters, and iii) the analysis of population response and evacuation times. Different risk levels ranging from "low" to "high" are assigned to the coats of the studied area. Variation of human tsunami risk between the high and low touristic seasons is also considered in this study and aims to produce different tsunami risk-related scenarios

The role of deposits in tsunami risk assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, B.

2008-01-01

An incomplete catalogue of tsunamis in the written record hinders tsunami risk assessment. Tsunami deposits, hard evidence of tsunami, can be used to extend the written record. The two primary factors in tsunami risk, tsunami frequency and magnitude, can be addressed through field and modeling studies of tsunami deposits. Recent research has increased the utility of tsunami deposits in tsunami risk assessment by improving the ability to identify tsunami deposits and developing models to determine tsunami magnitude from deposit characteristics. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Tsunami Hazards - A National Threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2006-01-01

In December 2004, when a tsunami killed more than 200,000 people in 11 countries around the Indian Ocean, the United States was reminded of its own tsunami risks. In fact, devastating tsunamis have struck North America before and are sure to strike again. Especially vulnerable are the five Pacific States--Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California--and the U.S. Caribbean islands. In the wake of the Indian Ocean disaster, the United States is redoubling its efforts to assess the Nation's tsunami hazards, provide tsunami education, and improve its system for tsunami warning. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is helping to meet these needs, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and with coastal States and counties.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Effects of Harbor Modification on Crescent City, California's Tsunami Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, Lori; Uslu, Burak

2011-06-01

More damaging tsunamis have impacted Crescent City, California in historic times than any other location on the West Coast of the USA. Crescent City's harbor has undergone significant modification since the early 20th century, including construction of several breakwaters, dredging, and a 200 × 300 m2 small boat basin. In 2006, a M w 8.3 earthquake in the Kuril Islands generated a moderate Pacific-wide tsunami. Crescent City recorded the highest amplitudes of any tide gauge in the Pacific and was the only location to experience structural damage. Strong currents damaged docks and boats within the small boat basin, causing more than US 20 million in damage and replacement costs. We examine how modifications to Crescent City's harbor may have affected its vulnerability to moderate tsunamis such as the 2006 event. A bathymetric grid of the basin was constructed based on US Army Corps of Engineers soundings in 1964 and 1965 before the construction of the small boat basin. The method of splitting tsunamis was used to estimate tsunami water heights and current velocities at several locations in the harbor using both the 1964-1965 grid and the 2006 bathymetric grid for the 2006 Kuril event and a similar-sized source along the Sanriku coast of Japan. Model velocity outputs are compared for the two different bathymetries at the tide gauge location and at six additional computational sites in the harbor. The largest difference between the two grids is at the small boat basin entrance, where the 2006 bathymetry produces currents over three times the strength of the currents produced by the 1965 bathymetry. Peak currents from a Sanriku event are comparable to those produced by the 2006 event, and within the boat basin may have been higher. The modifications of the harbor, and in particular the addition of the small boat basin, appear to have contributed to the high current velocities and resulting damage in 2006 and help to explain why the 1933 M w 8.4-8.7 Sanriku tsunami

Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment of Tectonic and Landslide Tsunamis in Southeast Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Koehler, R. D., III

2014-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska, and is currently focused on the southeastern region and communities of Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Gustavus and Hoonah. This activity provides local emergency officials with tsunami hazard assessment, planning, and mitigation tools. At-risk communities are distributed along several segments of the Alaska coastline, each having a unique seismic history and potential tsunami hazard. Thus, a critical component of our project is accurate identification and characterization of potential tectonic and landslide tsunami sources. The primary tectonic element of Southeast Alaska is the Fairweather - Queen Charlotte fault system, which has ruptured in 5 large strike-slip earthquakes in the past 100 years. The 1958 "Lituya Bay" earthquake triggered a large landslide into Lituya Bay that generated a 540-m-high wave. The M7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake of October 28, 2012 occurred along the same fault, but was associated with dominantly vertical motion, generating a local tsunami. Communities in Southeast Alaska are also vulnerable to hazards related to locally generated waves, due to proximity of communities to landslide-prone fjords and frequent earthquakes. The primary mechanisms for local tsunami generation are failure of steep rock slopes due to relaxation of internal stresses after deglaciation, and failure of thick unconsolidated sediments accumulated on underwater delta fronts at river mouths. We numerically model potential tsunami waves and inundation extent that may result from future hypothetical far- and near-field earthquakes and landslides. We perform simulations for each source scenario using the Alaska Tsunami Model, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by

Tsunami vulnerability and damage for buildings analyzed by means of two methods (PTVA-3 and SCHEMA) in the area of Augusta and Siracusa, eastern Sicily, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2015-04-01

The coast of the eastern Sicily is exposed to tsunamis that can be generated by local earthquakes (e.g. the 1169, 1693, 1908 events) and by earthquakes located in distant seismic zones (see the 365 AD tsunamigenic quake in Western Hellenic Arc). Tsunamis can also be generated by landslides possibly triggered by earthquakes. The Hyblean-Malta steep escarpment running offshore at a small angle with the coast is an ideal place for submarine mass failure occurrences with tsunamigenic effects. The entire eastern coast of Sicily from Messina in the north to Siracusa in the south is under the threat of tsunamis. In the frame of the FP7 European project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839), the segment of coast from Augusta to Siracusa was selected to undertake specific and detailed studies of tsunami hazard, vulnerability and damage to test existing methods and develop innovative approaches. The scope of the present work regards vulnerability and damage analyses. We chose to adopt two methods, known in the literature and briefly denoted as PTVA-3 and SCHEMA, that are based on two very different approaches, the former more qualitative and the latter more quantitative. The method PTVA-3 determines the vulnerability and damageability of a building by weighting and ranking a number of attributes covering the structural features of the edifice and the relevant characteristics of the surrounding environment such as the position with respect to the coast, the existence of defensive elements (e.g. walls, breakwaters, vegetation) and also the proximity to potential sources of floating objects that can feed damaging debris flows. On the other hand, the SCHEMA method uses a classification of building and a damage matrix that were derived from experimental fragility and damage curves first established after the Sumatra 2004 tsunami and later refined and adapted to the building stock of the Mediterranean region. The

Tsunamis: Global Exposure and Local Risk Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Horspool, N.; Griffin, J.; Davies, G.; Frauenfelder, R.

2014-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation, and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was one direct result of this event. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) adopted HFA in January 2005 in order to reduce disaster risk. As an instrument to compare the risk due to different natural hazards, an integrated worldwide study was implemented and published in several Global Assessment Reports (GAR) by UN-ISDR. The results of the global earthquake induced tsunami hazard and exposure analysis for a return period of 500 years are presented. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods (PTHA) are used. The resulting hazard levels for both methods are compared quantitatively for selected areas. The comparison demonstrates that the analysis is rather rough, which is expected for a study aiming at average trends on a country level across the globe. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. On the contrary, a local tsunami vulnerability and risk analysis applies information on population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth for a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period combined with empirical data on tsunami damages and mortality. Results and validation of a GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model are presented. The GIS model is adapted for optimal use of data available for each study. Finally, the importance of including landslide sources in the tsunami analysis is also discussed.

Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

2014-05-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as

Preliminary Hazard Assessment for Tectonic Tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, B.; Bayazitoglu, O.; Sharghi vand, N.; Kanoglu, U.

2017-12-01

There are many critical industrial facilities such as energy production units and energy transmission lines along the southeast coast of Turkey. This region is also active on tourism, and agriculture and aquaculture production. There are active faults in the region, i.e. the Cyprus Fault, which extends along the Mediterranean basin in the east-west direction and connects to the Hellenic Arc. Both the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc are seismologically active and are capable of generating earthquakes with tsunamigenic potential. Even a small tsunami in the region could cause confusion as shown by the recent 21 July 2017 earthquake of Mw 6.6, which occurred in the Aegean Sea, between Bodrum, Turkey and Kos Island, Greece since region is not prepared for such an event. Moreover, the Mediterranean Sea is one of the most vulnerable regions against sea level rise due to global warming, according to the 5th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For these reasons, a marine hazard such as a tsunami can cause much worse damage than expected in the region (Kanoglu et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 2015). Hence, tsunami hazard assessment is required for the region. In this study, we first characterize earthquakes which have potential to generate a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Such study is a prerequisite for regional tsunami mitigation studies. For fast and timely predictions, tsunami warning systems usually employ databases that store pre-computed tsunami propagation resulting from hypothetical earthquakes with pre-defined parameters. These pre-defined sources are called tsunami unit sources and they are linearly superposed to mimic a real event, since wave propagation is linear offshore. After investigating historical earthquakes along the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc, we identified tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and proposed tsunami unit sources for the region. We used the tsunami numerical model MOST (Titov et al

Tsunami hazard assessment for the island of Rhodes, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Armigliato, Alberto; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

2013-04-01

solves the Navier Stokes equations in shallow water approximation. To cover the entire basin two nested grids (a coarse one with 30 arc sec resolution and a finer one with 200 m resolution) are used, constructed on bathymetry data provided by the TRANSFER database. The results, as fields of highest wave elevation, maximum flood, maximum speed, arrival times and synthetic tide-gauges, are provided and discussed both individually (i.e. separately for each source) as well as in the form of a single, aggregate result, as required by the worst-case scenario technique. References Ebeling, C.W., Okal., E.A., Kalligeris, N., Synolakis, C.E.: Modern seismological reassessment and tsunami simulation of historical Hellenic Arc earthquakes. Tectonophysics, 530-531, 225-239, 2012. Papadopoulos, G. A., Daskalaki, E., Fokaefs, A., and Giraleas, N.: Tsunami hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in the East Hellenic Arc and Trench system, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 57-64, doi:10.5194/nhess-7-57-2007, 2007. Tinti S., Pagnoni G., Armigliato A., and Tonini R.: Tsunami inundation scenarios and tsunami vulnerability assessment forthe town of Alexandria, Egypt, Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14, EGU2012-10325, 2012, EGU General Assembly 2012.

Tsunami hazard assessment in La Reunion and Mayotte Islands in the Indian Ocean : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the PREPARTOI project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Sahal, A.; Lavigne, F.

2011-12-01

Significant tsunamis have often affected the southwest Indian Ocean. The scientific project PREPARTOI (Prévention et REcherche pour l'Atténuation du Risque Tsunami dans l'Océan Indien), partly founded by the MAIF foundation, aims at assessing the tsunami risk on both french islands of this region, La Réunion and Mayotte. Further purpose of this project is the detailed hazard and vulnerability study for specific places of these islands, selected according to their environmental and human issues and observed impacts of past tsunamis. Tsunami hazard in this region, recently highlighted by major events in the southwest Indian Ocean, has never been thoroughly evaluated. Our study, within the PREPARTOI project, contributes to fill in this lack. It aims at examining transoceanic tsunami hazard related to earthquakes by modeling the scenarios of major historical events. We consider earthquakes with magnitude greater than Mw 7.7 located on the Sumatra (1833, 2004, 2010), Java (2006) and Makran (1945) subduction zones. First, our simulations allow us to compare the tsunami impact at regional scale according to the seismic sources; we thus identify earthquakes locations which most affect the islands and describe the impact distribution along their coastline. In general, we note that, for the same magnitude, events coming from the southern part of Sumatra subduction zone induce a larger impact than the north events. The studied tsunamis initiated along the Java and Makran subduction zones have limited effects on both French islands. Then, detailed models for the selected sites are performed based on high resolution bathymetric and topographic data; they provide estimations of the water currents, the water heights and the potential inundations. When available, field measurements and maregraphic records allow testing our models. Arrival time, amplitude of the first wave and impact on the tide gauge time series are well reproduced. Models are consistent with the observations

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the southern Colombian Pacific basin and a proposal to regenerate a previous barrier island as protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Gonzalez, M.

2014-05-01

In this study, the tsunami hazard posed to 120 000 inhabitants of Tumaco (Colombia) is assessed, and an evaluation and analysis of regenerating the previous El Guano Island for tsunami protection is conducted. El Guano Island was a sandy barrier island in front of the city of Tumaco until its disappearance during the tsunami of 1979; the island is believed to have played a protective role, substantially reducing the scale of the disaster. The analysis is conducted by identifying seismotectonic parameters and focal mechanisms of tsunami generation in the area, determining seven potential generation sources, applying a numerical model for tsunami generation and propagation, and evaluating the effect of tsunamis on Tumaco. The results show that in the current situation, this area is vulnerable to impact and flooding by tsunamis originating nearby. El Guano Island was found to markedly reduce flood levels and the energy flux of tsunami waves in Tumaco during the 1979 tsunami. By reducing the risk of flooding due to tsunamis, the regeneration and morphological modification of El Guano Island would help to protect Tumaco.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the southern Colombian Pacific Basin and a proposal to regenerate a previous barrier island as protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Gonzalez, M.

2013-04-01

In this study, the tsunami hazard posed to 120 000 inhabitants of Tumaco (Colombia) is assessed, and an evaluation and analysis of regenerating the previous El Guano Island for tsunami protection is conducted. El Guano Island was a sandy barrier island in front of the city of Tumaco until its disappearance during the tsunami of 1979; the island is believed to have played a protective role, substantially reducing the scale of the disaster. The analysis is conducted by identifying seismotectonic parameters and focal mechanisms of tsunami generation in the area, determining seven potential generation sources, applying a numerical model for tsunami generation and propagation, and evaluating the effect of tsunamis on Tumaco. The results show that in the current situation, this area is vulnerable to impact and flooding by tsunamis originating nearby. El Guano Island was found to markedly reduce flood levels and the energy flux of tsunami waves in Tumaco during the 1979 tsunami. To reduce the risk of flooding due to tsunamis, the regeneration and morphological modification of El Guano Island would help to protect Tumaco.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India using analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-03-01

Increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surge, tsunami and cyclone, as a consequence of change in global climate, is predicted to have dramatic effects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after-effects of the future events. This paper advocates an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, Land-use/Land-cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist places) are considered to measure the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) as well as the Socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the final coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone which constitutes 50% of the

Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Source regions of concern to U.S. interests derived from NOAA Tsunami Forecast Model Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eble, M. C.; uslu, B. U.; Wright, L.

2013-12-01

Synthetic tsunamis generated from source regions around the Pacific Basin are analyzed in terms of their relative impact on United States coastal locations.. The region of tsunami origin is as important as the expected magnitude and the predicted inundation for understanding tsunami hazard. The NOAA Center for Tsunami Research has developed high-resolution tsunami models capable of predicting tsunami arrival time and amplitude of waves at each location. These models have been used to conduct tsunami hazard assessments to assess maximum impact and tsunami inundation for use by local communities in education and evacuation map development. Hazard assessment studies conducted for Los Angeles, San Francisco, Crescent City, Hilo, and Apra Harbor are combined with results of tsunami forecast model development at each of seventy-five locations. Complete hazard assessment, identifies every possible tsunami variation from a pre-computed propagation database. Study results indicate that the Eastern Aleutian Islands and Alaska are the most likely regions to produce the largest impact on the West Coast of the United States, while the East Philippines and Mariana trench regions impact Apra Harbor, Guam. Hawaii appears to be impacted equally from South America, Alaska and the Kuril Islands.

Nationwide tsunami hazard assessment project in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

2014-12-01

In 2012, we began a project of nationwide Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) in Japan to support various measures (Fujiwara et al., 2013, JpGU; Hirata et al., 2014, AOGS). The most important strategy in the nationwide PTHA is predominance of aleatory uncertainty in the assessment but use of epistemic uncertainty is limited to the minimum, because the number of all possible combinations among epistemic uncertainties diverges quickly when the number of epistemic uncertainties in the assessment increases ; we consider only a type of earthquake occurrence probability distribution as epistemic uncertainty. We briefly show outlines of the nationwide PTHA as follows; (i) we consider all possible earthquakes in the future, including those that the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japanese Government, already assessed. (ii) We construct a set of simplified earthquake fault models, called "Characterized Earthquake Fault Models (CEFMs)", for all of the earthquakes by following prescribed rules (Toyama et al., 2014, JpGU; Korenaga et al., 2014, JpGU). (iii) For all of initial water surface distributions caused by a number of the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. (iv) Finally, we integrate information about the tsunamis calculated from the numerous CEFMs to get nationwide tsunami hazard assessments. One of the most popular representations of the integrated information is a tsunami hazard curve for coastal tsunami heights, incorporating uncertainties inherent in tsunami simulation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU). We will show a　PTHA along the eastern coast of Honshu, Japan, based on approximately 1,800 tsunami sources located within the subduction zone along the Japan Trench, as a prototype of the nationwide PTHA. This study is supported by part of the research

Using landscape analysis to assess and model tsunami damage in Aceh province, Sumatra

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad

2007-01-01

The nearly unprecedented loss of life resulting from the earthquake and tsunami of December 26,2004, was greatest in the province of Aceh, Sumatra (Indonesia). We evaluated tsunami damage and built empirical vulnerability models of damage/no damage based on elevation, distance from shore, vegetation, and exposure. We found that highly predictive models are possible and...

Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

2012-01-01

We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India, using the analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-12-01

As a consequence of change in global climate, an increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surges, tsunamis and cyclones, is predicted to have dramatic affects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after- effects of the future events. This paper demonstrates an analytical hierarchical process (AHP)-based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP-derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, land use/land cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist areas) are considered to measure the physical vulnerability index (PVI) as well as the socio-economic vulnerability index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the coastal vulnerability index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone, which constitutes 50% of the

Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter I in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Shoaf, Kimberley

2013-01-01

The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city

Immediate ecological impacts of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami on intertidal flat communities.

PubMed

Urabe, Jotaro; Suzuki, Takao; Nishita, Tatsuki; Makino, Wataru

2013-01-01

Following the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, a large tsunami developed and struck the Pacific coast of eastern Japan. To assess the immediate impacts of the tsunami on coastal communities, changes in taxon composition and richness of macrobenthic animals before and after the tsunami were examined at nine intertidal flats in Sendai Bay and the Sanriku Ria coast. The results showed that 30-80% of taxa indigenously inhabiting intertidal flats disappeared after the tsunami. Among animal types, endobenthic and sessile epibenthic animals were more vulnerable to the tsunami than mobile epibenthic animals like shore crabs and snails. For all the intertidal flats examined, animals that were originally dwellers in lower tidal zones and not recorded before the tsunami were also found right after the tsunami, indicating that the tsunami not only took away many benthic taxa from the intertidal flats but also brought in some taxa from elsewhere. However, overall changes in taxon community composition were greater for intertidal flats that experienced larger inundation heights. These results showed that the ecological impacts of the tsunami were proportional to the physical impacts as gauged by wave height and that mobile epibenthic animals were less vulnerable to the tsunami.

Place-classification analysis of community vulnerability to near-field tsunami threats in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.; Jones, J.; Spielman, S.

2013-12-01

Near-field tsunami hazards are credible threats to many coastal communities throughout the world. Along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast, low-lying areas could be inundated by a series of catastrophic tsunami waves that begin to arrive in a matter of minutes following a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. This presentation summarizes analytical efforts to classify communities with similar characteristics of community vulnerability to tsunami hazards. This work builds on past State-focused inventories of community exposure to CSZ-related tsunami hazards in northern California, Oregon, and Washington. Attributes used in the classification, or cluster analysis, include demography of residents, spatial extent of the developed footprint based on mid-resolution land cover data, distribution of the local workforce, and the number and type of public venues, dependent-care facilities, and community-support businesses. Population distributions also are characterized by a function of travel time to safety, based on anisotropic, path-distance, geospatial modeling. We used an unsupervised-model-based clustering algorithm and a v-fold, cross-validation procedure (v=50) to identify the appropriate number of community types. We selected class solutions that provided the appropriate balance between parsimony and model fit. The goal of the vulnerability classification is to provide emergency managers with a general sense of the types of communities in tsunami hazard zones based on similar characteristics instead of only providing an exhaustive list of attributes for individual communities. This classification scheme can be then used to target and prioritize risk-reduction efforts that address common issues across multiple communities. The presentation will include a discussion of the utility of proposed place classifications to support regional preparedness and outreach efforts.

Source processes for the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Lynett, Patrick J.

2014-01-01

The importance of tsunami hazard assessment has increased in recent years as a result of catastrophic consequences from events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis. In particular, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) methods have been emphasized to include all possible ways a tsunami could be generated. Owing to the scarcity of tsunami observations, a computational approach is used to define the hazard. This approach includes all relevant sources that may cause a tsunami to impact a site and all quantifiable uncertainty. Although only earthquakes were initially considered for PTHA, recent efforts have also attempted to include landslide tsunami sources. Including these sources into PTHA is considerably more difficult because of a general lack of information on relating landslide area and volume to mean return period. The large variety of failure types and rheologies associated with submarine landslides translates to considerable uncertainty in determining the efficiency of tsunami generation. Resolution of these and several other outstanding problems are described that will further advance PTHA methodologies leading to a more accurate understanding of tsunami hazard.

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

Immediate Ecological Impacts of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on Intertidal Flat Communities

PubMed Central

Urabe, Jotaro; Suzuki, Takao; Nishita, Tatsuki; Makino, Wataru

2013-01-01

Following the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, a large tsunami developed and struck the Pacific coast of eastern Japan. To assess the immediate impacts of the tsunami on coastal communities, changes in taxon composition and richness of macrobenthic animals before and after the tsunami were examined at nine intertidal flats in Sendai Bay and the Sanriku Ria coast. The results showed that 30–80% of taxa indigenously inhabiting intertidal flats disappeared after the tsunami. Among animal types, endobenthic and sessile epibenthic animals were more vulnerable to the tsunami than mobile epibenthic animals like shore crabs and snails. For all the intertidal flats examined, animals that were originally dwellers in lower tidal zones and not recorded before the tsunami were also found right after the tsunami, indicating that the tsunami not only took away many benthic taxa from the intertidal flats but also brought in some taxa from elsewhere. However, overall changes in taxon community composition were greater for intertidal flats that experienced larger inundation heights. These results showed that the ecological impacts of the tsunami were proportional to the physical impacts as gauged by wave height and that mobile epibenthic animals were less vulnerable to the tsunami. PMID:23650529

Road infrastructure resilience to tsunami in Cilegon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arini, Srikandi Wahyu; Sumabrata, Jachrizal

2017-11-01

Indonesia is vulnerable to natural disasters. The highest number of natural disaster occurs on the west side of Java Island with the tsunami as the most deadly. Cilegon, a densely populated city with high industrial activity is located on the west coast of Java Island with a gently sloping topography, hence it is vulnerable to tsunami. Simulations conducted by the National Disaster Management Authority indicates that earthquakes with epicenters in the Sunda strait will cause tsunamis which can sweep away the whole industrial area in one hour. The availability of evacuation routes which can accommodate the evacuation of large numbers of people within a short time is required. Road infrastructure resilience is essential to support the performance of the evacuation routes. Poor network resilience will reduce mobility and accessibility during the evacuation. The objectives of this paper are to analyze the impact of the earthquake-generated tsunami on the evacuation routes and to simulate and analyze the performance of existing evacuation routes in Cilegon. The limitations of the modeling approaches including the current and future challenges in evacuation transport research and its applications are also discussed. The conclusion from this study is accurate data source are needed to build a more representative model and predict the areas susceptible to tsunamis vulnerable areas and to construct cogent tsunami mitigation plans and actions for the most vulnerable areas.

Tsunami risk zoning in south-central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, M.

2010-12-01

The recent 2010 Chilean tsunami revealed the need to optimize methodologies for assessing the risk of disaster. In this context, modern techniques and criteria for the evaluation of the tsunami phenomenon were applied in the coastal zone of south-central Chile as a specific methodology for the zoning of tsunami risk. This methodology allows the identification and validation of a scenario of tsunami hazard; the spatialization of factors that have an impact on the risk; and the zoning of the tsunami risk. For the hazard evaluation, different scenarios were modeled by means of numerical simulation techniques, selecting and validating the results that better fit with the observed tsunami data. Hydrodynamic parameters of the inundation as well as physical and socioeconomic vulnerability aspects were considered for the spatialization of the factors that affect the tsunami risk. The tsunami risk zoning was integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) by means of multicriteria evaluation (MCE). The results of the tsunami risk zoning show that the local characteristics and their location, together with the concentration of poverty levels, establish spatial differentiated risk levels. This information builds the basis for future applied studies in land use planning that tend to minimize the risk levels associated to the tsunami hazard. This research is supported by Fondecyt 11090210.

Interdisciplinary modeling and analysis to reduce loss of life from tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

Recent disasters have demonstrated the significant loss of life and community impacts that can occur from tsunamis. Minimizing future losses requires an integrated understanding of the range of potential tsunami threats, how individuals are specifically vulnerable to these threats, what is currently in place to improve their chances of survival, and what risk-reduction efforts could be implemented. This presentation will provide a holistic perspective of USGS research enabled by recent advances in geospatial modeling to assess and communicate population vulnerability to tsunamis and the range of possible interventions to reduce it. Integrated research includes efforts to characterize the magnitude and demography of at-risk individuals in tsunami-hazard zones, their evacuation potential based on landscape conditions, nature-based mitigation to improve evacuation potential, evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas, siting considerations for vertical-evacuation refuges, community implications of multiple evacuation zones, car-based evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis, and projected changes in population exposure to tsunamis over time. Collectively, this interdisciplinary research supports emergency managers in their efforts to implement targeted risk-reduction efforts based on local conditions and needs, instead of generic regional strategies that only focus on hazard attributes.

Mega Tsunamis of the World Ocean and Their Implication for the Tsunami Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusiakov, V. K.

2014-12-01

Mega tsunamis are the strongest tsunamigenic events of tectonic origin that are characterized by run-up heights up to 40-50 m measured along a considerable part of the coastline (up to 1000 km). One of the most important features of mega-tsunamis is their ability to cross the entire oceanic basin and to cause an essential damage to its opposite coast. Another important feature is their ability to penetrate into the marginal seas (like the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea) and cause dangerous water level oscillations along the parts of the coast, which are largely protected by island arcs against the impact of the strongest regional tsunamis. Among all known historical tsunamis (nearly 2250 events during the last 4000 years) they represent only a small fraction (less than 1%) however they are responsible for more than half the total tsunami fatalities and a considerable part of the overall tsunami damage. The source of all known mega tsunamis is subduction submarine earthquakes with magnitude 9.0 or higher having a return period from 200-300 years to 1000-1200 years. The paper presents a list of 15 mega tsunami events identified so far in historical catalogs with their basic source parameters, near-field and far-field impact effects and their generation and propagation features. The far-field impact of mega tsunamis is largely controlled by location and orientation of their earthquake source as well as by deep ocean bathymetry features. We also discuss the problem of the long-term tsunami hazard assessment when the occurrence of mega tsunamis is taken into account.

High Resolution Tsunami Modeling and Assessment of Harbor Resilience; Case Study in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Aytore, Betul; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Kanoglu, Utku; Duzgun, Sebnem; Zaytsev, Andrey; Arikawa, Taro; Tomita, Takashi; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

2014-05-01

Ports and harbors are the major vulnerable coastal structures under tsunami attack. Resilient harbors against tsunami impacts are essential for proper, efficient and successful rescue operations and reduction of the loss of life and property by tsunami disasters. There are several critical coastal structures as such in the Marmara Sea. Haydarpasa and Yenikapi ports are located in the Marmara Sea coast of Istanbul. These two ports are selected as the sites of numerical experiments to test their resilience under tsunami impact. Cargo, container and ro-ro handlings, and short/long distance passenger transfers are the common services in both ports. Haydarpasa port has two breakwaters with the length of three kilometers in total. Yenikapi port has one kilometer long breakwater. The accurate resilience analysis needs high resolution tsunami modeling and careful assessment of the site. Therefore, building data with accurate coordinates of their foot prints and elevations are obtained. The high resolution bathymetry and topography database with less than 5m grid size is developed for modeling. The metadata of the several types of structures and infrastructure of the ports and environs are processed. Different resistances for the structures/buildings/infrastructures are controlled by assigning different friction coefficients in a friction matrix. Two different tsunami conditions - high expected and moderate expected - are selected for numerical modeling. The hybrid tsunami simulation and visualization codes NAMI DANCE, STOC-CADMAS System are utilized to solve all necessary tsunami parameters and obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of flow depth, current velocity, inundation distance and maximum water level in the study domain. Finally, the computed critical values of tsunami parameters are evaluated and structural performance of the port components are discussed in regard to a better resilience. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-Ç-12

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: the Seaside, Oregon Pilot Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, F. I.; Geist, E. L.; Synolakis, C.; Titov, V. V.

2004-12-01

A pilot study of Seaside, Oregon is underway, to develop methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments that can be incorporated into Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) developed by FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Current NFIP guidelines for tsunami hazard assessment rely on the science, technology and methodologies developed in the 1970s; although generally regarded as groundbreaking and state-of-the-art for its time, this approach is now superseded by modern methods that reflect substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades. In particular, post-1990 technical advances include: improvements in tsunami source specification; improved tsunami inundation models; better computational grids by virtue of improved bathymetric and topographic databases; a larger database of long-term paleoseismic and paleotsunami records and short-term, historical earthquake and tsunami records that can be exploited to develop improved probabilistic methodologies; better understanding of earthquake recurrence and probability models. The NOAA-led U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), in partnership with FEMA, USGS, NSF and Emergency Management and Geotechnical agencies of the five Pacific States, incorporates these advances into site-specific tsunami hazard assessments for coastal communities in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington. NTHMP hazard assessment efforts currently focus on developing deterministic, "credible worst-case" scenarios that provide valuable guidance for hazard mitigation and emergency management. The NFIP focus, on the other hand, is on actuarial needs that require probabilistic hazard assessments such as those that characterize 100- and 500-year flooding events. There are clearly overlaps in NFIP and NTHMP objectives. NTHMP worst-case scenario assessments that include an estimated probability of occurrence could benefit the NFIP; NFIP probabilistic assessments of 100- and 500-yr

Assessing community vulnerabilities to natural hazards on the Island of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishioka, Chris; Delparte, Donna

2010-05-01

The island of Hawaii is susceptible to numerous natural hazards such as tsunamis, flooding, lava flow, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, wildfires and storm surge. The impact of a natural disaster on the island's communities has the potential to endanger peoples' lives and threaten critical infrastructure, homes, businesses and economic drivers such as tourism. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has the ability to assess community vulnerabilities by examining the spatial relationships between hazard zones, socioeconomic infrastructure and demographic data. By drawing together existing datasets, GIS was used to examine a number of community vulnerabilities. Key areas of interest were government services, utilities, property assets, industry and transportation. GIS was also used to investigate population dynamics in hazard zones. Identification of community vulnerabilities from GIS analysis can support mitigation measures and assist planning and response measures to natural hazards.

Perceptions of earthquake and tsunami issues in U.S. Pacific Northwest port and harbor communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.

2005-01-01

Although there is considerable energy focused on assessing natural hazards associated with earthquakes and tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, little has been done to understand societal vulnerability to these hazards. Part of understanding societal vulnerability includes assessing the perceptions and priorities of public sector individuals with traditional emergency management responsibilities and of private citizens who could play key roles in community recovery. In response to this knowledge gap, we examine earthquake and tsunami perceptions of stakeholders and decision makers from coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, focusing on perceptions of (1) regional hazards and societal vulnerability, (2) the current state of readiness, and (3) priorities for future hazard adjustment efforts. Results of a mailed survey suggest that survey participants believe that earthquakes and tsunamis are credible community threats. Most communities are focusing on regional mitigation and response planning, with less effort devoted to recovery plans or to making individual organizations more resilient. Significant differences in expressed perceptions and priorities were observed between Oregon and Washington respondents, mainly on tsunami issues. Significant perception differences were also observed between private and public sector respondents. Our results suggest the need for further research and for outreach and planning initiatives in the Pacific Northwest to address significant gaps in earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and readiness.

Assessment of a Tsunami Hazard for Mediterranean Coast of Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaytsev, Andrey; Babeyko, Andrey; Yalciner, Ahmet; Pelinovsky, Efim

2017-04-01

Analysis of tsunami hazard for Egypt based on historic data and numerical modelling of historic and prognostic events is given. There are 13 historic events for 4000 years, including one instrumental record (1956). Tsunami database includes 12 earthquake tsunamis and 1 event of volcanic origin (Santorini eruption). Tsunami intensity of events (365, 881, 1303, 1870) is estimated as I = 3 led to tsunami wave height more than 6 m. Numerical simulation of some possible scenario of tsunamis of seismic and landslide origin is done with use of NAMI-DANCE software solved the shallow-water equations. The PTHA method (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment - Probabilistic assessment of a tsunami hazard) for the Mediterranean Sea developed in (Sorensen M.B., Spada M., Babeyko A., Wiemer S., Grunthal G. Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea. J Geophysical Research, 2012, vol. 117, B01305) is used to evaluate the probability of tsunami occurrence on the Egyptian coast. The synthetic catalogue of prognostic tsunamis of seismic origin with magnitude more than 6.5 includes 84 920 events for 100000 years. For the wave heights more 1 m the curve: exceedance probability - tsunami height can be approximated by exponential Gumbel function with two parameters which are determined for each coastal location in Egypt (totally. 24 points). Prognostic extreme highest events with probability less 10-4 are not satisfied to the Gumbel function (approximately 10 events) and required the special analysis. Acknowledgements: This work was supported EU FP7 ASTARTE Project [603839], and for EP - NS6637.2016.5.

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2011-01-01

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

Tsunami Impact in Morocco due to Most Credible Tsunami Scenarios in the Gulf of Cadiz.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Toto, E. A.

2009-04-01

In the Gulf of Cadiz, the tsunami risk should be considered major due to the peculiar geological context close to the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary and also to the high vulnerability of the coastlines in the region. The extensive occupation of coastal areas in the surrounding countries - Portugal, Spain and Morocco, the enormous influxes of tourists during high season and the large economic value of harbors and other coastal facilities increase considerably the vulnerability to tsunami impact. In order to establish the Most Credible Tsunami Scenarios we used the earthquake scenarios in the Gulf of Cadiz area. Each scenario has an associated typical fault/or faults and a set of fault parameters that are used as input to compute the sea bottom deformation using Okada's equations. Tsunami propagation uses COMCOT-LX, modified version of the COMCOT Cornnell University code. Maximum wave height (MWH) and tsunami energy direction are computed, for each tsunamigenic scenario for the north Atlantic coast of Morocco. Finally we selected the harbor of Casablanca for the production of inundation maps for Casablanca This research was funded by NEAREST and TRANSFER, 6FP-European Union.

Rapid assessment of tsunami impact from real-time seismology and geographic, historical other datasets using machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelini, Alberto; Lomax, Anthony

2017-04-01

The impact of an earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, severe weather or other natural disaster is related to: the intensity of the hazard; the vulnerability or exposure of the population, such as housing quality, infrastructure and proximity to a coastlines; and the capacity to resist and cope with the disaster. Rapid assessment by monitoring agencies of the impact of a natural event is fundamental for early warning and response. We previously* proposed the "tsunami importance" parameter, It, for characterizing the strength of a tsunami. This parameter combines 5 descriptive indices from the NOAA/WDC Historical Tsunami Database: 4 tsunami impact measures (deaths, injuries, damage, houses destroyed), and maximum water height. Accordingly, It = 2 corresponds approximately to the JMA threshold for issuing a ''Tsunami Warning'' whereas the largest or most devastating tsunamis typically have It = 10. Here we discuss extending this simple, 5-component parameter with additional impact-related measures from relevant databases (e.g., LandScan population density, major infrastructures) and historical / archaeological information, and measures that might be obtained in near-real-time (e.g., emergency services, news, social media). We combine these measures with seismological and other real-time observations as an ensemble of features within automated procedures to estimate impact and guide decision making. We examine using modern machine learning methodologies to train and calibrate the procedures, while working with high-dimensional feature space. * Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2011), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration and P-wave dominant period: the importance of length and depth of faulting, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 283-291, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04916.x

Towards a robust framework for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for local and regional tsunami in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Christof; Power, William; Fraser, Stuart; Wang, Xiaoming

2013-04-01

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is conceptually closely related to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). The main difference is that PTHA needs to simulate propagation of tsunami waves through the ocean and cannot rely on attenuation relationships, which makes PTHA computationally more expensive. The wave propagation process can be assumed to be linear as long as water depth is much larger than the wave amplitude of the tsunami. Beyond this limit a non-linear scheme has to be employed with significantly higher algorithmic run times. PTHA considering far-field tsunami sources typically uses unit source simulations, and relies on the linearity of the process by later scaling and combining the wave fields of individual simulations to represent the intended earthquake magnitude and rupture area. Probabilistic assessments are typically made for locations offshore but close to the coast. Inundation is calculated only for significantly contributing events (de-aggregation). For local and regional tsunami it has been demonstrated that earthquake rupture complexity has a significant effect on the tsunami amplitude distribution offshore and also on inundation. In this case PTHA has to take variable slip distributions and non-linearity into account. A unit source approach cannot easily be applied. Rupture complexity is seen as an aleatory uncertainty and can be incorporated directly into the rate calculation. We have developed a framework that manages the large number of simulations required for local PTHA. As an initial case study the effect of rupture complexity on tsunami inundation and the statistics of the distribution of wave heights have been investigated for plate-interface earthquakes in the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand. Assessing the probability that water levels will be in excess of a certain threshold requires the calculation of empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF). We compare our results with traditional estimates for

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoechner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey Y.; Zamora, Natalia

2016-06-01

Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoechner, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Zamora, N.

2015-09-01

Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

Tsunami Rapid Assessment Using High Resolution Images and Field Surveys: the 2010 , Central Chile, and the 2011, Tohoku Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Navarrete-Pacheco, J.; Lagos, M.; Arcas, D.

2013-12-01

Recent extreme tsunamis have shown their major socioeconomic impact and imprint in the coastal landscape. Extensive destruction, erosion, sediment transport and deposition resculpted coastal landscape within few minutes along hundreds of kilometers of the Central Chile, in 2010, and the Northeast coast of Japan, in 2011. In the central coast of Chile, we performed a post-tsunami survey a week after the tsunami due to access restrictions. Our observations focus on the inundation and geomorphic effects of the 2010 tsunami and included an air reconnaissance flight, analysis of pre- and post-event low fly air-photographs and Google Earth satellite images, together with ground reconnaissance and mapping in the field, including topographic transects, during a period of 13 days. Eyewitness accounts enabled us to confirm our observations on effects produced by the tsunami along ~ 500km along the coastline landscape in central Chile For the Tohoku case study, we assessed in a day tsunami inundation distances and runup heights using satellite data (very high resolution satellite images from the GeoEye1 satellite and from the DigitalGlobe worldview through the Google crisis response project, SRTM and ASTER GDEM) of the Tohoku region, Northeast Japan. Field survey data by Japanese, other international scientists and us validated our results. The rapid assessment of damage using high-resolution images has proven to be an excellent tool neccessary for effcient postsunami surveys as well as for rapid assessment of areas with access restrictions. All countries, in particular those with less access to technology and infrastructure, can benefit from the use of freely available satellite imagery and DEMs for an initial, pre-field survey, rapid estimate of inundated areas, distances and runup, tsunami effects in the coastal geomorphology and for assisting in hazard management and mitigation after a natural disaster. These data provide unprecedented opportunities for rapid assessment

Preliminary tsunami hazard assessment in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Insua, T. L.; Grilli, A. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Shelby, M. R.; Wang, K.; Gao, D.; Cherniawsky, J. Y.; Harris, J. C.; Heesemann, M.; McLean, S.; Moran, K.

2015-12-01

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC), a not-for-profit initiative by the University of Victoria that operates several cabled ocean observatories, is developing a new generation of ocean observing systems (referred to as Smart Ocean Systems™), involving advanced undersea observation technologies, data networks and analytics. The ONC Tsunami project is a Smart Ocean Systems™ project that addresses the need for a near-field tsunami detection system for the coastal areas of British Columbia. Recent studies indicate that there is a 40-80% probability over the next 50 for a significant tsunami impacting the British Columbia (BC) coast with runups higher than 1.5 m. The NEPTUNE cabled ocean observatory, operated by ONC off of the west coast of British Columbia, could be used to detect near-field tsunami events with existing instrumentation, including seismometers and bottom pressure recorders. As part of this project, new tsunami simulations are underway for the BC coast. Tsunami propagation is being simulated with the FUNWAVE-TVD model, for a suite of new source models representing Cascadia megathrust rupture scenarios. Simulations are performed by one-way coupling in a series of nested model grids (from the source to the BC coast), whose bathymetry was developed based on digital elevation maps (DEMs) of the area, to estimate both tsunami arrival time and coastal runup/inundation for different locations. Besides inundation, maps of additional parameters such as maximum current are being developed, that will aid in tsunami hazard assessment and risk mitigation, as well as developing evacuation plans. We will present initial results of this work for the Port Alberni inlet, in particular Ucluelet, based on new source models developed using the best available data. We will also present a model validation using measurements of the 2011 transpacific Tohoku-oki tsunami recorded in coastal BC by several instruments from various US and Canadian agencies.

Assessing tsunami-induced groundwater salinization and its temporal change: a numerical modelling study on the Niijima Island, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiaqi; Tokunaga, Tomochika

2016-04-01

Groundwater is vulnerable to many natural hazards, including tsunami. As reported after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake, the generated massive tsunami inundations resulted in unexpected groundwater salinization in coastal areas. Water supply was strongly disturbed due to the significantly elevated salinity in groundwater. Supplying fresh water is one of the prioritized concerns in the immediate aftermath of disaster, and during long-term post-disaster reconstruction as well. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of tsunami on coastal groundwater system and provide guidelines on managing water resources in post-tsunami period. We selected the study area as the Niijima Island, a tsunami-prone area in Japan, which is under the risk of being attacked by a devastated tsunami with its wave height up to 30 m. A three-dimension (3-D) numerical model of the groundwater system on the Niijima Island was developed by using the simulation code FEFLOW which can handle both density- dependent groundwater flow and saturated-unsaturated flow processes. The model was justified by the measured water table data obtained from the field work in July, 2015. By using this model, we investigated saltwater intrusion and aquifer recovery process under different tsunami scenarios. Modelling results showed that saltwater could fully saturate the vadose zone and come into contact with groundwater table in just 10 mins. The 0.6 km2 of inundation area introduced salt mass equivalent to approximately 9×104 t of NaCl into the vadose zone. After the retreat of tsunami waves, the remained saltwater in vadose zone continuously intruded into the groundwater and dramatically salinized the aquifer up to about 10,000 mg/L. In the worst tsunami scenario, it took more than 10 years for the polluted aquifer to be entirely recovered by natural rainfall. Given that the groundwater is the only freshwater source on the Niijima Island, we can provide suggestions

Tsunami Risk Assessment Modelling in Chabahar Port, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delavar, M. R.; Mohammadi, H.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

2017-09-01

The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC), the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan) reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India) and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST). In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km2 of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.

Stakeholder-driven geospatial modeling for assessing tsunami vertical-evacuation strategies in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.; Schmidtlein, M.; Schelling, J.; Jones, J.; Ng, P.

2012-12-01

Recent tsunami disasters, such as the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku events, demonstrate the significant life loss that can occur from tsunamis. Many coastal communities in the world are threatened by near-field tsunami hazards that may inundate low-lying areas only minutes after a tsunami begins. Geospatial integration of demographic data and hazard zones has identified potential impacts on populations in communities susceptible to near-field tsunami threats. Pedestrian-evacuation models build on these geospatial analyses to determine if individuals in tsunami-prone areas will have sufficient time to reach high ground before tsunami-wave arrival. Areas where successful evacuations are unlikely may warrant vertical-evacuation (VE) strategies, such as berms or structures designed to aid evacuation. The decision of whether and where VE strategies are warranted is complex. Such decisions require an interdisciplinary understanding of tsunami hazards, land cover conditions, demography, community vulnerability, pedestrian-evacuation models, land-use and emergency-management policy, and decision science. Engagement with the at-risk population and local emergency managers in VE planning discussions is critical because resulting strategies include permanent structures within a community and their local ownership helps ensure long-term success. We present a summary of an interdisciplinary approach to assess VE options in communities along the southwest Washington coast (U.S.A.) that are threatened by near-field tsunami hazards generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Pedestrian-evacuation models based on an anisotropic approach that uses path-distance algorithms were merged with population data to forecast the distribution of at-risk individuals within several communities as a function of travel time to safe locations. A series of community-based workshops helped identify potential VE options in these communities, collectively known as "Project Safe Haven" at the

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for

Tsunami hazard assessment in the Hudson River Estuary based on dynamic tsunami-tide simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shelby, Michael; Grilli, Stéphan T.; Grilli, Annette R.

2016-12-01

This work is part of a tsunami inundation mapping activity carried out along the US East Coast since 2010, under the auspice of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program (NTHMP). The US East Coast features two main estuaries with significant tidal forcing, which are bordered by numerous critical facilities (power plants, major harbors,...) as well as densely built low-level areas: Chesapeake Bay and the Hudson River Estuary (HRE). HRE is the object of this work, with specific focus on assessing tsunami hazard in Manhattan, the Hudson and East River areas. In the NTHMP work, inundation maps are computed as envelopes of maximum surface elevation along the coast and inland, by simulating the impact of selected probable maximum tsunamis (PMT) in the Atlantic ocean margin and basin. At present, such simulations assume a static reference level near shore equal to the local mean high water (MHW) level. Here, instead we simulate maximum inundation in the HRE resulting from dynamic interactions between the incident PMTs and a tide, which is calibrated to achieve MHW at its maximum level. To identify conditions leading to maximum tsunami inundation, each PMT is simulated for four different phases of the tide and results are compared to those obtained for a static reference level. We first separately simulate the tide and the three PMTs that were found to be most significant for the HRE. These are caused by: (1) a flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano (CVV) in the Canary Islands (with a 80 km3 volume representing the most likely extreme scenario); (2) an M9 coseismic source in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT); and (3) a large submarine mass failure (SMF) in the Hudson River canyon of parameters similar to the 165 km3 historical Currituck slide, which is used as a local proxy for the maximum possible SMF. Simulations are performed with the nonlinear and dispersive long wave model FUNWAVE-TVD, in a series of nested grids of increasing resolution towards the coast, by one

Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu

2017-04-01

Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Long-term statistics of extreme tsunami height at Crescent City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Sheng; Zhai, Jinjin; Tao, Shanshan

2017-06-01

Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.

U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical record and sources for waves – Update

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunbar, Paula K.; Weaver, Craig S.

2015-01-01

The first U.S. Tsunami Hazard Assessment (Dunbar and Weaver, 2008) was prepared at the request of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). The NTHMP is a partnership formed between federal and state agencies to reduce the impact of tsunamis through hazard assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation. The assessment was conducted in response to a 2005 joint report by the Sub-Committee on Disaster Reduction and the U.S. Group on Earth Observations entitled Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action. The first specific action called for in the Framework was to “develop standardized and coordinated tsunami hazard and risk assessments for all coastal regions of the United States and its territories.” Since the first assessment, there have been a number of very significant tsunamis, including the 2009 Samoa, 2010 Chile, and 2011 Japan tsunamis. As a result, the NTHMP requested an update of the U.S. tsunami hazard assessment.

Challenges of Tsunami Disaster and Extreme climate Events Along Coastal Region in Asia-Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhari, S.

2017-12-01

South Asia is more vulnerable to Geo disasters and impacts of climate changes in recent years. On 26 December 2004 massive waves triggered by an earthquake surged into coastal communities in Asia and East Africa with devastating force. Hitting Indonesia, Sri Lanka , Thailand and India hardest, the deadly waves swept more than 200 000 people to their deaths. Also in an another extreme climate change phenomenon during 2005 - 2006,causing heavy rains and flooding situation in the South Asia - Europe and Pacific region ,more than 100 million population in these regions are witnessing the social- economical and ecological risks and impacts due to climate changes and Geohazards. For mitigating geo-disasters, marine hazards and rehabilitation during post tsunami period, scientific knowledge is needed, requiring experienced research communities who can train the local population during tsunami rehabilitation. Several civil society institutions jointly started the initiatives on the problem identifications in management of risks in geo-disasters, tsunami rehabilitation ,Vulnerability and risk assessments for Geohazards etc., to investigate problems related to social-economic and ecological risks and management issues resulting from the December tsunami and Geo- disaster, to aid mitigation planning in affected areas and to educate scientists and local populations to form a basis for sustainable and economic solutions. The poster aims to assess the potential risk and hazard , technical issues, problems and damage arising from Tsunami in the Asia-pacific region in coastal geology, coastal ecosystems and coastal environmental systems . This poster deals with the status and issues of interactions between Human and Ocean Systems, Geo-risks, marine risks along coastal region of Asia- Pacific and also human influence on the earth system . The poster presentation focuses on capacity building of the local population, scientists and researchers for integration of human and ocean

Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2013-12-01

Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field

Place-classification analysis of community vulnerability to near-field tsunami threats in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.; Spielman, S.

2012-12-01

Near-field tsunami hazards are credible threats to many coastal communities throughout the world. Along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast, low-lying areas could be inundated by a series of catastrophic tsunamis that begin to arrive in a matter of minutes following a major Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Previous research has documented the residents, employees, tourists at public venues, customers at local businesses, and vulnerable populations at dependent-care facilities that are in CSZ-related tsunami-prone areas of northern California, Oregon, and the open-ocean coast of Washington. Community inventories of demographic attributes and other characteristics of the at-risk population have helped emergency managers to develop preparedness and outreach efforts. Although useful for distinct risk-reduction issues, these data can be difficult to fully appreciate holistically given the large number of community attributes. This presentation summarizes analytical efforts to classify communities with similar characteristics of community exposure to tsunami hazards. This work builds on past State-focused inventories of community exposure to CSZ-related tsunami hazards in northern California, Oregon, and Washington. Attributes used in the classification, or cluster analysis, fall into several categories, including demography of residents, spatial extent of the developed footprint based on mid-resolution land cover data, distribution of the local workforce, and the number and type of public venues, dependent-care facilities, and community-support businesses. As we were unsure of the number of different types of communities, we used an unsupervised-model-based clustering algorithm and a v-fold, cross-validation procedure (v=50) to identify the appropriate number of community types. Ultimately we selected class solutions that provided the appropriate balance between parsimony and model fit. The goal of the exposure classification is to provide emergency managers with

Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Abad, S.; González, M.; Larreynaga, J.; Gavidia, F.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Medina, R.

2013-12-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2015-12-01

Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

Use of Advanced Tsunami Hazard Assessment Techniques and Tsunami Source Characterizations in U.S. and International Nuclear Regulatory Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kammerer, A. M.; Godoy, A. R.

2009-12-01

In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, as well as the anticipation of the submission of license applications for new nuclear facilities, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear power plants and other coastal facilities in the United States. To undertake this effort, the US NRC organized a collaborative research program jointly undertaken with researchers at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the purpose of assessing tsunami hazard on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. This study identified and modeled both seismic and landslide tsunamigenic sources in the near- and far-field. The results from this work are now being used directly as the basis for the review of tsunami hazard at potential nuclear plant sites. This application once again shows the importance that the earth sciences can play in addressing issues of importance to society. Because the Indian Ocean Tsunami was a global event, a number of cooperative international activities have also been initiated within the nuclear community. The results of US efforts are being incorporated into updated regulatory guidance for both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Coordinated efforts are underway to integrate state-of-the art tsunami warning tools developed by NOAA into NRC and IAEA activities. The goal of the warning systems project is to develop automated protocols that allow scientists at these agencies to have up-to-the minute user-specific information in hand shortly after a potential tsunami has been identified by the US Tsunami Warning System. Lastly, USGS and NOAA scientists are assisting the NRC and IAEA in a special Extra-Budgetary Program (IAEA EBP) on tsunami being coordinated by the IAEA’s International Seismic Safety

Maritime Tsunami Hazard Assessment in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K. M.

2012-12-01

The California tsunami program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. Basin resonance and geometric amplification are two reasonably well understood mechanisms for local magnification of tsunami impact in harbors, and are generally the mechanisms investigated when estimating the tsunami hazard potential in a port or harbor. On the other hand, our understanding of and predictive ability for currents is lacking. When a free surface flow is forced through a geometric constriction, it is readily expected that the enhanced potential gradient will drive strong, possibly unstable currents and the associated turbulent coherent structures such as "jets" and "whirlpools"; a simple example would be tidal flow through an inlet channel. However, these fundamentals have not been quantitatively connected with respect to understanding tsunami hazards in ports and harbors. A plausible explanation for this oversight is the observation that these features are turbulent phenomena with spatial and temporal scales much smaller than that

Understanding of urban hazards, fire, and tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Walter W.; ,

1997-01-01

Understanding of the causes and solutions of an urban area's (e.g., Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle, Portland, Anchorage, Salt Lake City, Memphis, St. Louis, Charleston, Boston, San Juan) vulnerability to earthquakes, fire, and tsunamis has increased significantly during the past 50 years, and during the current International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Vulnerability is caused by flaws in planning, siting, design, construction, and use. It is fundamentally dependent upon the hazard, built, and policy environments of the urban area. Reduction of vulnerability is directly related to the decision-making process that calls for the adoption and enforcement of risk management programs (e.g., mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, and recovery measures) that are designed to make the urban area resilient to earthquakes, fires, and, as appropriate, tsunamis.

Probabilistic assessment of landslide tsunami hazard for the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pampell-Manis, A.; Horrillo, J.; Shigihara, Y.; Parambath, L.

2016-01-01

The devastating consequences of recent tsunamis affecting Indonesia and Japan have prompted a scientific response to better assess unexpected tsunami hazards. Although much uncertainty exists regarding the recurrence of large-scale tsunami events in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), geological evidence indicates that a tsunami is possible and would most likely come from a submarine landslide triggered by an earthquake. This study customizes for the GoM a first-order probabilistic landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is employed to determine landslide configurations based on distributions obtained from observational submarine mass failure (SMF) data. Our MCS approach incorporates a Cholesky decomposition method for correlated landslide size parameters to capture correlations seen in the data as well as uncertainty inherent in these events. Slope stability analyses are performed using landslide and sediment properties and regional seismic loading to determine landslide configurations which fail and produce a tsunami. The probability of each tsunamigenic failure is calculated based on the joint probability of slope failure and probability of the triggering earthquake. We are thus able to estimate sizes and return periods for probabilistic maximum credible landslide scenarios. We find that the Cholesky decomposition approach generates landslide parameter distributions that retain the trends seen in observational data, improving the statistical validity and relevancy of the MCS technique in the context of landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Estimated return periods suggest that probabilistic maximum credible SMF events in the north and northwest GoM have a recurrence of 5000-8000 years, in agreement with age dates of observed deposits.

Applying the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation model to the March 2011 north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami.

PubMed

Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo; Yap, Su Fei; Park, Donghyun

2014-07-01

Natural hazards have a potentially large impact on economic growth, but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of this paper is to demonstrate a model--the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation (NDVE) model--that can be used to evaluate the impact of natural hazards on gross national product growth. The model is based on five basic indicators-natural hazards growth rates (αi), the national natural hazards vulnerability rate (ΩT), the natural disaster devastation magnitude rate (Π), the economic desgrowth rate (i.e. shrinkage of the economy) (δ), and the NHV surface. In addition, we apply the NDVE model to the north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 to evaluate its impact on the Japanese economy. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Worst-Case Scenario Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Two Historically and Economically Important Districts in Eastern Sicily (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.; Paparo, M. A.

2015-12-01

The portion of the eastern Sicily coastline (southern Italy), ranging from the southern part of the Catania Gulf (to the north) down to the southern-eastern end of the island, represents a very important geographical domain from the industrial, commercial, military, historical and cultural points of view. Here the two major cities of Augusta and Siracusa are found. In particular, the Augusta bay hosts one of the largest petrochemical poles in the Mediterranean, and Siracusa is listed among the UNESCO World Heritage Sites since 2005. This area was hit by at least seven tsunamis in the approximate time interval from 1600 BC to present, the most famous being the 365, 1169, 1693 and 1908 tsunamis. The choice of this area as one of the sites for the testing of innovative methods for tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and reduction is then fully justified. This is being developed in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3). We assess the tsunami hazard for the Augusta-Siracusa area through the worst-case credible scenario technique, which can be schematically divided into the following steps: 1) Selection of five main source areas, both in the near- and in the far-field (Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, Messina Straits, Ionian subduction zone, Calabria offshore, western Hellenic Trench); 2) Choice of potential and credible tsunamigenic faults in each area: 38 faults were selected, with properly assigned magnitude, geometry and focal mechanism; 3) Computation of the maximum tsunami wave elevations along the eastern Sicily coast on a coarse grid (by means of the in-house code UBO-TSUFD) and extraction of the 9 scenarios that produce the largest effects in the target areas of Augusta and Siracusa; 4) For each of the 9 scenarios we run numerical UBO-TSUFD simulations over a set of five nested grids, with grid cells size decreasing from 3 km in the open Ionian

Spatiotemporal Visualization of Tsunami Waves Using Kml on Google Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, H.; Delavar, M. R.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

2017-09-01

Disaster risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability. Risk is defined as the expected losses, including lives, personal injuries, property damages, and economic disruptions, due to a particular hazard for a given area and time period. Risk assessment is one of the key elements of a natural disaster management strategy as it allows for better disaster mitigation and preparation. It provides input for informed decision making, and increases risk awareness among decision makers and other stakeholders. Virtual globes such as Google Earth can be used as a visualization tool. Proper spatiotemporal graphical representations of the concerned risk significantly reduces the amount of effort to visualize the impact of the risk and improves the efficiency of the decision-making process to mitigate the impact of the risk. The spatiotemporal visualization of tsunami waves for disaster management process is an attractive topic in geosciences to assist investigation of areas at tsunami risk. In this paper, a method for coupling virtual globes with tsunami wave arrival time models is presented. In this process we have shown 2D+Time of tsunami waves for propagation and inundation of tsunami waves, both coastal line deformation, and the flooded areas. In addition, the worst case scenario of tsunami on Chabahar port derived from tsunami modelling is also presented using KML on google earth.

Integrated Tsunami Database: simulation and identification of seismic tsunami sources, 3D visualization and post-disaster assessment on the shore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivorot'ko, Olga; Kabanikhin, Sergey; Marinin, Igor; Karas, Adel; Khidasheli, David

2013-04-01

One of the most important problems of tsunami investigation is the problem of seismic tsunami source reconstruction. Non-profit organization WAPMERR (http://wapmerr.org) has provided a historical database of alleged tsunami sources around the world that obtained with the help of information about seaquakes. WAPMERR also has a database of observations of the tsunami waves in coastal areas. The main idea of presentation consists of determining of the tsunami source parameters using seismic data and observations of the tsunami waves on the shore, and the expansion and refinement of the database of presupposed tsunami sources for operative and accurate prediction of hazards and assessment of risks and consequences. Also we present 3D visualization of real-time tsunami wave propagation and loss assessment, characterizing the nature of the building stock in cities at risk, and monitoring by satellite images using modern GIS technology ITRIS (Integrated Tsunami Research and Information System) developed by WAPMERR and Informap Ltd. The special scientific plug-in components are embedded in a specially developed GIS-type graphic shell for easy data retrieval, visualization and processing. The most suitable physical models related to simulation of tsunamis are based on shallow water equations. We consider the initial-boundary value problem in Ω := {(x,y) ?R2 : x ?(0,Lx ), y ?(0,Ly ), Lx,Ly > 0} for the well-known linear shallow water equations in the Cartesian coordinate system in terms of the liquid flow components in dimensional form Here ?(x,y,t) defines the free water surface vertical displacement, i.e. amplitude of a tsunami wave, q(x,y) is the initial amplitude of a tsunami wave. The lateral boundary is assumed to be a non-reflecting boundary of the domain, that is, it allows the free passage of the propagating waves. Assume that the free surface oscillation data at points (xm, ym) are given as a measured output data from tsunami records: fm(t) := ? (xm, ym,t), (xm

Real time assessment of the 15 July 2009 New Zealand tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uslu, Burak; Power, William; Greensdale, Dianne; Titov, Vasily

2010-05-01

On the 15th July 2009 a Mw 7.6 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fiordland in the South Island of New Zealand, about 1200 km from Auckland, New Zealand, 1500 km from Hobart, Tasmania and 1800 km from Sydney, Australia. A tsunami was generated and an initial warning issued by the PTWC. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate issued its first tsunami warning for coastal regions of eastern Australia and New Zealand 24 minutes after the earthquake. By serendipitous coincidence, the earthquake struck while the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk Russia. This provided the opportunity to test, in real-time, several tsunami warning systems in front of attending scientists (Schiermeier, 2009). NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science, and Centre for Australian Weather and Climate scientists were present at the symposium and worked together. Vasily Titov showed "live" NOAA's methodology (Bernard et al, 2006) to assess the tsunami potential and, in consultation with colleagues, provided warning guidance, and the warning was eventually canceled. We discuss how the forecast was done and how accurate the initial determination was. References Bernard E.N. et al., 2006, Tsunami: scientific frontiers, mitigation, forecasting and policy implications, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 364:1989-2007; doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1809 Schiermeier, Q., 2009, Tsunami forecast in real time, Published online 16 July 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.702

Surviving Women's Learning Experiences from the Tsunami in Aceh

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teng, Yan Fang Jane; Yusof, Qismullah

2014-01-01

This study investigated surviving women's learning experiences from the 2004 tsunami in Aceh. Women were the majority of casualties and the most vulnerable after the tsunami. Almost a decade later, we used a conceptual framework of experiential learning, critical reflection, and transformative learning to understand the surviving women's ways of…

Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Son, S.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

The California Tsunami Program coordinated by CalOES and CGS in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. The goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and (4) determine ';safe depths' for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during a tsunami event. This presentation will focus on the results from five California ports and harbors, and will include feedback we have received from initial discussion with local harbor masters and port authorities. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard

Potential coping capacities to avoid tsunamis in Mentawai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panjaitan, Berton; Gomez, Christopher; Pawson, Eric

2017-07-01

In 2010 a tsunamigenic earthquake triggered tsunami waves reaching the Mentawai archipelago in less than ten minutes. Similar events can occur any time as seismic scholars predict enormous energy remains trapped on the Sunda Megathrust - approximately 30 km offshore from the archipelago. Therefore, the local community of Mentawai is vulnerable to tsunami hazards. In the absence of modern technology to monitor the sea surface interventions, existing strategies need to be improved. This study was based on a qualitative research and literature review about developing coping capacity on tsunami hazards for Mentawai. A community early-warning system is the main strategy to develop the coping capacity at the community level. This consists of risk knowledge, monitoring, warning dissemination, and capability response. These are interlocked and are an end-to-end effort. From the study, the availability of risk assessments and risk mappings were mostly not found at dusun, whereas they are effective to increase tsunami risk knowledge. Also, the monitoring of tsunami waves can be maximized by strengthening and expanding the community systems for the people to avoid the waves. Moreover, the traditional tools are potential to deliver warnings. Lastly, although the local government has provided a few public facilities to increase the response capability, the people often ignore them. Therefore, their traditional values should be revitalized.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in Greece for seismic sources along the segmented Hellenic Arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikova, Tatyana; Babeyko, Andrey; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

2017-04-01

Greece and adjacent coastal areas are characterized by a high population exposure to tsunami hazard. The Hellenic Arc is the most active geotectonic structure for the generation of earthquakes and tsunamis. We performed probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for selected locations of Greek coastlines which are the forecasting points officially used in the tsunami warning operations by the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center and the NEAMTWS/IOC/UNESCO. In our analysis we considered seismic sources for tsunami generation along the western, central and eastern segments of the Hellenic Arc. We first created a synthetic catalog as long as 10,000 years for all the significant earthquakes with magnitudes in the range from 6.0 to 8.5, the real events being included in this catalog. For each event included in the synthetic catalog a tsunami was generated and propagated using Boussinesq model. The probability of occurrence for each event was determined by Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution. The results of our study are expressed as hazard curves and hazard maps. The hazard curves were obtained for the selected sites and present the annual probability of exceedance as a function of pick coastal tsunami amplitude. Hazard maps represent the distribution of peak coastal tsunami amplitudes corresponding to a fixed annual probability. In such forms our results can be easily compared to the ones obtained in other studies and further employed for the development of tsunami risk management plans. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.

Tsunamis hazard assessment and monitoring for the Back Sea area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partheniu, Raluca; Ionescu, Constantin; Constantin, Angela; Moldovan, Iren; Diaconescu, Mihail; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Radulian, Mircea; Toader, Victorin

2016-04-01

NIEP has improved lately its researches regarding tsunamis in the Black Sea. As part of the routine earthquake and tsunami monitoring activity, the first tsunami early-warning system in the Black Sea has been implemented in 2013 and is active during these last years. In order to monitor the seismic activity of the Black Sea, NIEP is using a total number of 114 real time stations and 2 seismic arrays, 18 of the stations being located in Dobrogea area, area situated in the vicinity of the Romanian Black Sea shore line. Moreover, there is a data exchange with the Black Sea surrounding countries involving the acquisition of real-time data for 17 stations from Bulgaria, Turkey, Georgia and Ukraine. This improves the capability of the Romanian Seismic Network to monitor and more accurately locate the earthquakes occurred in the Black Sea area. For tsunamis monitoring and warning, a number of 6 sea level monitoring stations, 1 infrasound barometer, 3 offshore marine buoys and 7 GPS/GNSS stations are installed in different locations along and near the Romanian shore line. In the framework of ASTARTE project, few objectives regarding the seismic hazard and tsunami waves height assessment for the Black Sea were accomplished. The seismic hazard estimation was based on statistical studies of the seismic sources and their characteristics, compiled using different seismic catalogues. Two probabilistic methods were used for the evaluation of the seismic hazard, the Cornell method, based on the Gutenberg Richter distribution parameters, and Gumbel method, based on extremes statistic. The results show maximum values of possible magnitudes and their recurrence periods, for each seismic source. Using the Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) software, a set of tsunami modelling scenarios have been generated for Shabla area, the seismic source that could mostly affect the Romanian shore. These simulations are structured in a database, in order to set maximum possible tsunami waves that could be

The Big Splash: Tsunami from Large Asteroid and Comet Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hills, J.; Goda, M.

Asteroid and comet impacts produce a large range of damage. Tsunami may produce most of the economic damage in large asteroid impacts. Large asteroid impacts produce worldwide darkness lasting several months that may kill more people by mass starvation, especially in developing countries, than would tsunami, but the dust should not severely affect economic infrastructure. The tsunami may even kill more people in developed countries with large coastal populations, such as the United States, than the starvation resulting from darkness. We have been determining which regions of Earth are most susceptible to asteroid tsunami by simulating the effect of a large asteroid impact into mid-ocean. We have modeled the effect of midAtlantic and midPacific impacts that produce craters 300 to 150 km in diameter. A KT-size impactor would cause the larger of these craters. We used a computer code that has successfully determined the runup and inundation from historical earthquake-generated tsunami. The code has been progressively improved to eliminate previous problems at the domain boundaries, so it now runs until the tsunami inundation is complete. We find that the larger of these two midAtlantic impacts would engulf the entire Florida Peninsula. The smaller one would inundate the eastern third of the peninsula while a tsunami passing through the Gulf of Cuba would inundate the West Coast of Florida. Impacts at three different sites in the Pacific show the great vulnerability of Tokyo and its surroundings to asteroid tsunami. Mainland Asia is relatively protected from asteroid tsunami. In Europe, the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic Providences of France are highly vulnerable to asteroid tsunami.

Studying Displacement After a Disaster Using Large Scale Survey Methods: Sumatra After the 2004 Tsunami

PubMed Central

Gray, Clark; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Gillespie, Thomas; Sumantri, Cecep; Thomas, Duncan

2014-01-01

Understanding of human vulnerability to environmental change has advanced in recent years, but measuring vulnerability and interpreting mobility across many sites differentially affected by change remains a significant challenge. Drawing on longitudinal data collected on the same respondents who were living in coastal areas of Indonesia before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and were re-interviewed after the tsunami, this paper illustrates how the combination of population-based survey methods, satellite imagery and multivariate statistical analyses has the potential to provide new insights into vulnerability, mobility and impacts of major disasters on population well-being. The data are used to map and analyze vulnerability to post-tsunami displacement across the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra and to compare patterns of migration after the tsunami between damaged areas and areas not directly affected by the tsunami. The comparison reveals that migration after a disaster is less selective overall than migration in other contexts. Gender and age, for example, are strong predictors of moving from undamaged areas but are not related to displacement in areas experiencing damage. In our analyses traditional predictors of vulnerability do not always operate in expected directions. Low levels of socioeconomic status and education were not predictive of moving after the tsunami, although for those who did move, they were predictive of displacement to a camp rather than a private home. This survey-based approach, though not without difficulties, is broadly applicable to many topics in human-environment research, and potentially opens the door to rigorous testing of new hypotheses in this literature. PMID:24839300

The 1945 Balochistan earthquake and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höchner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey; Zamora, Natalia

2014-05-01

Iran and Pakistan are countries quite frequently affected by destructive earthquakes. For instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30'000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, but a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Additionally, some recent publications raise the question of the possiblity of rare but huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We first model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights, and then generate various synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogs including the possibility of large events in order to asses the tsunami hazard at the affected coastal regions. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by the use of an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast.

Coastal Tsunami and Risk Assessment for Eastern Mediterranean Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kentel, E.; Yavuz, C.

2017-12-01

Tsunamis are rarely experienced events that have enormous potential to cause large economic destruction on the critical infrastructures and facilities, social devastation due to mass casualty, and environmental adverse effects like erosion, accumulation and inundation. Especially for the past two decades, nations have encountered devastating tsunami events. The aim of this study is to investigate risks along the Mediterranean coastline due to probable tsunamis based on simulations using reliable historical data. In order to do this, 50 Critical Regions, CRs, (i.e. city centers, agricultural areas and summer villages) and 43 Critical Infrastructures, CIs, (i.e. airports, ports & marinas and industrial structures) are determined to perform people-centered risk assessment along Eastern Mediterranean region covering 7 countries. These countries include Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, and Libya. Bathymetry of the region is given in Figure 1. In this study, NAMI-DANCE is used to carry out tsunami simulations. Source of a sample tsunami simulation and maximum wave propagation in the study area for this sample tsunami are given in Figures 2 and 3, respectively.Richter magnitude,, focal depth, time of occurrence in a day and season are considered as the independent parameters of the earthquake. Historical earthquakes are used to generate reliable probability distributions for these parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) Simulations are carried out to evaluate overall risks at the coastline. Inundation level, population density, number of passenger or employee, literacy rate, annually income level and existence of human are used in risk estimations. Within each MC simulation and for each grid in the study area, people-centered tsunami risk for each of the following elements at risk is calculated: i. City centers ii. Agricultural areas iii. Summer villages iv. Ports and marinas v. Airports vi. Industrial structures Risk levels at each grid along the shoreline are

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part II: Inundation Modelling and Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, E. M.; Gillibrand, P. A.; Wang, X.; Power, W.

2013-09-01

Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an "Average Recurrence Interval" of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date.

Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

2016-04-01

The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk

Variations in City Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan

2007-01-01

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to Oregon coastal communities. Although a potential tsunami-inundation zone from a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake has been delineated, what is in this area and how communities have chosen to develop within it have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to describe tsunami-prone landscapes on the Oregon coast and to document city variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to the tsunami-inundation zone. Results indicate that the Oregon tsunami-inundation zone contains approximately 22,201 residents (four percent of the total population in the seven coastal counties), 14,857 employees (six percent of the total labor force), and 53,714 day-use visitors on average every day to coastal Oregon State Parks within the tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 1,829 businesses that generate approximately $1.9 billion in annual sales volume (seven and five percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $8.2 billion (12 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, adult-residential-care facilities, child-day-care facilities, and schools), public venues (for example, religious organizations and libraries), and critical facilities (for example, police stations). Racial diversity of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone is low, with 96 percent identifying themselves as White, either alone or in combination with one or more race. Twenty-two percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 36 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 37 percent of the households are renter

Tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marios Karagiannis, Georgios; Synolakis, Costas

2015-04-01

Greece is vulnerable to tsunamis, due to the length of the coastline, its islands and its geographical proximity to the Hellenic Arc, an active subduction zone. Historically, about 10% of all world tsunamis occur in the Mediterranean region. Here we review existing tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece. We analyze capabilities across the disaster management continuum, including prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Specifically, we focus on issues like legal requirements, stakeholders, hazard mitigation practices, emergency operations plans, public awareness and education, community-based approaches and early-warning systems. Our research is based on a review of existing literature and official documentation, on previous projects, as well as on interviews with civil protection officials in Greece. In terms of tsunami disaster prevention and hazard mitigation, the lack of tsunami inundation maps, except for some areas in Crete, makes it quite difficult to get public support for hazard mitigation practices. Urban and spatial planning tools in Greece allow the planner to take into account hazards and establish buffer zones near hazard areas. However, the application of such ordinances at the local and regional levels is often difficult. Eminent domain is not supported by law and there are no regulatory provisions regarding tax abatement as a disaster prevention tool. Building codes require buildings and other structures to withstand lateral dynamic earthquake loads, but there are no provisions for resistance to impact loading from water born debris Public education about tsunamis has increased during the last half-decade but remains sporadic. In terms of disaster preparedness, Greece does have a National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and is a Member of UNESCO's Tsunami Program for North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAM) region. Several exercises have been organized in the framework of the NEAM Tsunami Warning

The tsunami phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röbke, B. R.; Vött, A.

2017-12-01

With human activity increasingly concentrating on coasts, tsunamis (from Japanese tsu = harbour, nami = wave) are a major natural hazard to today's society. Stimulated by disastrous tsunami impacts in recent years, for instance in south-east Asia (2004) or in Japan (2011), tsunami science has significantly flourished, which has brought great advances in hazard assessment and mitigation plans. Based on tsunami research of the last decades, this paper provides a thorough treatise on the tsunami phenomenon from a geoscientific point of view. Starting with the wave features, tsunamis are introduced as long shallow water waves or wave trains crossing entire oceans without major energy loss. At the coast, tsunamis typically show wave shoaling, funnelling and resonance effects as well as a significant run-up and backflow. Tsunami waves are caused by a sudden displacement of the water column due to a number of various trigger mechanisms. Such are earthquakes as the main trigger, submarine and subaerial mass wastings, volcanic activity, atmospheric disturbances (meteotsunamis) and cosmic impacts, as is demonstrated by giving corresponding examples from the past. Tsunamis are known to have a significant sedimentary and geomorphological off- and onshore response. So-called tsunamites form allochthonous high-energy deposits that are left at the coast during tsunami landfall. Tsunami deposits show typical sedimentary features, as basal erosional unconformities, fining-upward and -landward, a high content of marine fossils, rip-up clasts from underlying units and mud caps, all reflecting the hydrodynamic processes during inundation. The on- and offshore behaviour of tsunamis and related sedimentary processes can be simulated using hydro- and morphodynamic numerical models. The paper provides an overview of the basic tsunami modelling techniques, including discretisation, guidelines for appropriate temporal and spatial resolution as well as the nesting method. Furthermore, the

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program Pr-Nthmp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Hincapie-Cardenas, C. M.

2014-12-01

Tsunami hazard assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts are intended to reduce losses to life and property. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies, to developing tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the National Tsunami Hazards and Mitigation Program (NTHMP). This grant supports the TsunamiReady program which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. The seismic water waves originating in the prominent fault systems around PR are considered to be a near-field hazard for Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands (PR/VI) because they can reach coastal areas within a few minutes after the earthquake. Sources for local, regional and tele tsunamis have been identified and modeled and tsunami evacuation maps were prepared for PR. These maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario (MOM). The run-ups were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Online maps and related evacuation products are available to the public via the PR-TDST (PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool). Currently all the 44 coastal municipalities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the US NWS. The main goal of the program is to declare Puerto Rico as TsunamiReady, including two cities that are not coastal but could be affected by tsunamis. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved

Historical tsunami in the Azores archipelago (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrade, C.; Borges, P.; Freitas, M. C.

2006-08-01

Because of its exposed northern mid-Atlantic location, morphology and plate-tectonics setting, the Azores Archipelago is highly vulnerable to tsunami hazards associated with landslides and seismic or volcanic triggers, local or distal. Critical examination of available data - written accounts and geologic evidence - indicates that, since the settlement of the archipelago in the 15th century, at least 23 tsunami have struck Azorean coastal zones. Most of the recorded tsunami are generated by earthquakes. The highest known run-up (11-15 m) was recorded on 1 November 1755 at Terceira Island, corresponding to an event of intensity VII-VIII (damaging-heavily damaging) on the Papadopolous-Imamura scale. To date, eruptive activity, while relatively frequent in the Azores, does not appear to have generated destructive tsunami. However, this apparent paucity of volcanogenic tsunami in the historical record may be misleading because of limited instrumental and documentary data, and small source-volumes released during historical eruptions. The latter are in contrast with the geological record of massive pyroclastic flows and caldera explosions with potential to generate high-magnitude tsunami, predating settlement. In addition, limited evidence suggests that submarine landslides from unstable volcano flanks may have also triggered some damaging tsunamigenic floods that perhaps were erroneously attributed to intense storms. The lack of destructive tsunami since the mid-18th century has led to governmental complacency and public disinterest in the Azores, as demonstrated by the fact that existing emergency regulations concerning seismic events in the Azores Autonomous Region make no mention of tsunami and their attendant hazards. We suspect that the coastal fringe of the Azores may well preserve a sedimentary record of some past tsunamigenic flooding events. Geological field studies must be accelerated to expand the existing database to include prehistoric events

In Search of the Largest Possible Tsunami: An Example Following the 2011 Japan Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

2012-12-01

Many tsunami hazard assessments focus on estimating the largest possible tsunami: i.e., the worst-case scenario. This is typically performed by examining historic and prehistoric tsunami data or by estimating the largest source that can produce a tsunami. We demonstrate that worst-case assessments derived from tsunami and tsunami-source catalogs are greatly affected by sampling bias. Both tsunami and tsunami sources are well represented by a Pareto distribution. It is intuitive to assume that there is some limiting size (i.e., runup or seismic moment) for which a Pareto distribution is truncated or tapered. Likelihood methods are used to determine whether a limiting size can be determined from existing catalogs. Results from synthetic catalogs indicate that several observations near the limiting size are needed for accurate parameter estimation. Accordingly, the catalog length needed to empirically determine the limiting size is dependent on the difference between the limiting size and the observation threshold, with larger catalog lengths needed for larger limiting-threshold size differences. Most, if not all, tsunami catalogs and regional tsunami source catalogs are of insufficient length to determine the upper bound on tsunami runup. As an example, estimates of the empirical tsunami runup distribution are obtained from the Miyako tide gauge station in Japan, which recorded the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami as the largest tsunami among 51 other events. Parameter estimation using a tapered Pareto distribution is made both with and without the Tohoku-oki event. The catalog without the 2011 event appears to have a low limiting tsunami runup. However, this is an artifact of undersampling. Including the 2011 event, the catalog conforms more to a pure Pareto distribution with no confidence in estimating a limiting runup. Estimating the size distribution of regional tsunami sources is subject to the same sampling bias. Physical attenuation mechanisms such as wave breaking

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios of potential underwater earthquakes were developed, and these scenarios were then modeled through during the second phase. The third phase consisted in determining the worst-case scenario based on the Maximum of Maximums (MOM). Inundation and evacuation zones were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Maps and related evacuation products, like evacuation times, can be accessed online via the PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were

NOAA's Integrated Tsunami Database: Data for improved forecasts, warnings, research, and risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroker, Kelly; Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; McCullough, Heather; Carignan, Kelly

2015-04-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has primary responsibility in the United States for tsunami forecast, warning, research, and supports community resiliency. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics provide a unique collection of data enabling communities to ensure preparedness and resilience to tsunami hazards. Immediately following a damaging or fatal tsunami event there is a need for authoritative data and information. The NGDC Global Historical Tsunami Database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/) includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. The long-term data from these events, including photographs of damage, provide clues to what might happen in the future. NGDC catalogs the information on global historical tsunamis and uses these data to produce qualitative tsunami hazard assessments at regional levels. In addition to the socioeconomic effects of a tsunami, NGDC also obtains water level data from the coasts and the deep-ocean at stations operated by the NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, and the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and produces research-quality data to isolate seismic waves (in the case of the deep-ocean sites) and the tsunami signal. These water-level data provide evidence of sea-level fluctuation and possible inundation events. NGDC is also building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to support real-time forecasts, implemented at 75 US coastal communities. After a damaging or fatal event NGDC begins to collect and integrate data and information from many organizations into the hazards databases. Sources of data include our NOAA partners, the U.S. Geological Survey, the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and International Tsunami Information Center

Modeling tsunami damage in Aceh: a reply

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2008-01-01

In reply to the critique of Baird and Kerr, we emphasize that our model is a generalized vulnerability model, built from easily acquired data from anywhere in the world, to identify areas with probable susceptibility to large tsunamis--and discuss their other criticisms in detail. We also show that a rejection of the role of trees in helping protect vulnerable areas is...

Effect of harbor modifications on the tsunami vulnerability of Crescent City, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.

2008-12-01

Crescent City, California has experienced more damaging tsunami events in historic times than any other location on the West Coast of the United States. Thirty-one tsunamis have been observed at Crescent City since a tide gauge was established in 1933, including eleven events with maximum peak to trough wave range exceeding one meter and four that caused damage. The most damaging event occurred in 1964 as a result of the great Alaska earthquake. The ensuing tsunami flooded 29 city blocks and killed 11 in the Crescent City area. As a result of the 1964 tsunami and redevelopment projects, the Crescent City harbor was significantly modified in the early 1970s. A 200 x 300 meter small boat basin was carved into the preexisting shore line, a 123 meter dog leg extension was added to the central breakwater and significant deepening occurred on the eastern side of the harbor. In 2006, a Mw 8.3 earthquake in the Kuril Islands generated a moderate Pacific-wide tsunami. The only location with significant damage was the Crescent City harbor where strong currents damaged docks and boats, causing an estimated 9.2 million (US dollars) in damages. Strong currents estimated by the Harbor Master at 12 knots were observed near the entrance to the small boat basin. Past earthquakes from the northwestern Pacific including the 1933 M 8.3 Sanriku Japan earthquake may have produced similar amplitudes at Crescent City to the 2006 event but caused no damage. We have obtained the pre-modification harbor bathymetry and use the MOST model to compare tsunami water heights and current velocities for the 1933 and 2006 sources using modern and pre- modification bathymetry. We also examine model the 1964 inundation using the actual bathymetry and compare the results to numerical simulations that have only used the modern data.

Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

2015-11-01

In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2.

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in the State of Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Church, Alyssia; Frazier, Tim; Yarnal, Brent

2007-01-01

Hawai`i has experienced numerous destructive tsunamis and the potential for future events threatens the safety and economic well being of its coastal communities. Although tsunami-evacuation zones have been delineated, what is in these areas and how communities have chosen to develop within them has not been documented. A community-level vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to describe tsunami-prone landscapes on the Hawaiian coast and to document variations in land cover, demographics, economic assets, and critical facilities among 65 communities. Results indicate that the Hawai`i tsunami-evacuation zone contains approximately 56,678 residents (five percent of the total population), 67,113 employees (eleven percent of the State labor force), and 50,174 average daily visitors to hotels (44 percent of the State total). With regards to economic conditions, the tsunami-evacuation zone contains 5,779 businesses that generate $10.1 billion in annual sales volume (both eleven percent of State totals), and tax parcels with a combined total value of $36.1 billion (18 percent of the State total). Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the tsunami-evacuation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, child-day-care facilities and schools), public venues (for example, religious organizations and parks) and critical facilities (for example, fire stations). The residential population in tsunami-prone areas is racially diverse, with most residents identifying themselves as White, Asian, or Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, either alone or in combination with one or more race. Fifty-one percent of the households in the tsunami-evacuation zone are renter occupied. The employee population in the tsunami-evacuation zone is largely in accommodation and food services, health services, and retail-trade sectors. Results indicate that community vulnerability, described here by

The New Zealand Tsunami Database: historical and modern records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Downes, G. L.; Cochran, U. A.; Clark, K.; Scheele, F.

2016-12-01

A database of historical (pre-instrumental) and modern (instrumentally recorded)tsunamis that have impacted or been observed in New Zealand has been compiled andpublished online. New Zealand's tectonic setting, astride an obliquely convergenttectonic boundary on the Pacific Rim, means that it is vulnerable to local, regional andcircum-Pacific tsunamis. Despite New Zealand's comparatively short written historicalrecord of c. 200 years there is a wealth of information about the impact of past tsunamis.The New Zealand Tsunami Database currently has 800+ entries that describe >50 highvaliditytsunamis. Sources of historical information include witness reports recorded indiaries, notes, newspapers, books, and photographs. Information on recent events comesfrom tide gauges and other instrumental recordings such as DART® buoys, and media ofgreater variety, for example, video and online surveys. The New Zealand TsunamiDatabase is an ongoing project with information added as further historical records cometo light. Modern tsunamis are also added to the database once the relevant data for anevent has been collated and edited. This paper briefly overviews the procedures and toolsused in the recording and analysis of New Zealand's historical tsunamis, with emphasison database content.

A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

2014-12-01

Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

Steps Towards the Implementation of a Tsunami Detection, Warning, Mitigation and Preparedness Program for Southwestern Coastal Areas of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farreras, Salvador; Ortiz, Modesto; Gonzalez, Juan I.

2007-03-01

The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta, is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas.

Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yong, Wei; Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Titov, Vasily V.; Tang, Liujuan

2014-01-01

Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

Environmental impact assessment of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami on the Sendai Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Niedzielski, Przemyslaw; Wong, Henri K. Y.; Szczuciński, Witold; Sugawara, Daisuke; Goff, James

2012-12-01

Large areas of farmland in the Sendai Plain, Japan, were inundated by the 11 March 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami and covered by a discontinuous 30-0.2 cm thick sediment layer consisting of sand and/or mud and generally thinning and fining inland. Two months after the tsunami, numerous rice paddy fields and depressions remained ponded with brackish or saline water. A series of field surveys in May, August and October 2011 were carried out north of Sendai airport, in order to assess the environmental impact of the tsunami. While evaporation had resulted in elevated conductivity in ponded water in May (up to 68.2 mS cm- 1), rainfall over the next five months led to dilution, although brackish water was still recorded in depressions and on paddy fields. Tsunami sediments, underlying soil and soil beyond the tsunami inundation limit were collected at 43 sites along and near a transect extending over 5 km inland, and analysed for grain size, organic content, water leachable ions, acid leachable metals and exchangeable metalloids. Water leachable anion and cation concentrations were elevated in sandy and muddy tsunami deposits and soils particularly in areas, where seawater had stagnated for a longer period of time after the tsunami, with up to 10.5% Cl, 6.6% Na, 2.8% SO4, 440 mg kg- 1 Br measured in surface sediments (< 0.5 cm depth). Vertical variations were also recorded, with higher concentrations often measured in the surface samples. A similar trend could be observed for some of the metalloids (As) and metals (Zn, Cu and Ni), although in general, maximum concentrations of metals and metalloids were not much higher than in soils not inundated by the tsunami and were within background levels for uncontaminated Japanese soils. The impact of saltwater inundation was documented in the chemistry of soils underlying tsunami sediments, which were affected by salt contamination down to ~ 15 cm depth, and soils not covered by tsunami deposits. The latter implies that the extent of

A Probabilistic and Observation Based Methodology to Estimate Small Craft Harbor Vulnerability to Tsunami Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keen, A. S.; Lynett, P. J.; Ayca, A.

2016-12-01

Because of the damage resulting from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japanese tele-tsunamis, the tsunami risk to the small craft marinas in California has become an important concern. The talk will outline an assessment tool which can be used to assess the tsunami hazard to small craft harbors. The methodology is based on the demand and structural capacity of the floating dock system, composed of floating docks/fingers and moored vessels. The structural demand is determined using a Monte Carlo methodology. Monte Carlo methodology is a probabilistic computational tool where the governing might be well known, but the independent variables of the input (demand) as well as the resisting structural components (capacity) may not be completely known. The Monte Carlo approach uses a distribution of each variable, and then uses that random variable within the described parameters, to generate a single computation. The process then repeats hundreds or thousands of times. The numerical model "Method of Splitting Tsunamis" (MOST) has been used to determine the inputs for the small craft harbors within California. Hydrodynamic model results of current speed, direction and surface elevation were incorporated via the drag equations to provide the bases of the demand term. To determine the capacities, an inspection program was developed to identify common features of structural components. A total of six harbors have been inspected ranging from Crescent City in Northern California to Oceanside Harbor in Southern California. Results from the inspection program were used to develop component capacity tables which incorporated the basic specifications of each component (e.g. bolt size and configuration) and a reduction factor (which accounts for the component reduction in capacity with age) to estimate in situ capacities. Like the demand term, these capacities are added probabilistically into the model. To date the model has been applied to Santa Cruz Harbor as well as Noyo River. Once

The November 15, 2006 Kuril Islands-Generated Tsunami in Crescent City, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Yim, S. C.; Kelly, A.

2009-02-01

On November 15, 2006, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a tsunami generated by a M w 8.3 earthquake in the central Kuril Islands. Strong currents that persisted over an eight-hour period damaged floating docks and several boats and caused an estimated 9.2 million in losses. Initial tsunami alert bulletins issued by the West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska were cancelled about three and a half hours after the earthquake, nearly five hours before the first surges reached Crescent City. The largest amplitude wave, 1.76-meter peak to trough, was the sixth cycle and arrived over two hours after the first wave. Strong currents estimated at over 10 knots, damaged or destroyed three docks and caused cracks in most of the remaining docks. As a result of the November 15 event, WCATWC changed the definition of Advisory from a region-wide alert bulletin meaning that a potential tsunami is 6 hours or further away to a localized alert that tsunami water heights may approach warning- level thresholds in specific, vulnerable locations like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 a similar Kuril event occurred and hourly conferences between the warning center and regional weather forecasts were held with a considerable improvement in the flow of information to local coastal jurisdictions. The event highlighted the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami and underscored the need to improve public education regarding the duration of the tsunami hazards, improve dialog between tsunami warning centers and local jurisdictions, and better understand the currents produced by tsunamis in harbors.

Uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, Bruce E.; Goto, Kazuhisa; Sugawara, Daisuke; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; La Selle, SeanPaul M.

2016-01-01

Erosion and deposition from tsunamis record information about tsunami hydrodynamics and size that can be interpreted to improve tsunami hazard assessment. We explore sources and methods for quantifying uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty varies with tsunami, study site, available input data, sediment grain size, and model. Although uncertainty has the potential to be large, published case studies indicate that both forward and inverse tsunami sediment transport models perform well enough to be useful for deciphering tsunami characteristics, including size, from deposits. New techniques for quantifying uncertainty, such as Ensemble Kalman Filtering inversion, and more rigorous reporting of uncertainties will advance the science of tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty may be decreased with additional laboratory studies that increase our understanding of the semi-empirical parameters and physics of tsunami sediment transport, standardized benchmark tests to assess model performance, and development of hybrid modeling approaches to exploit the strengths of forward and inverse models.

Near-field hazard assessment of March 11, 2011 Japan Tsunami sources inferred from different methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wei, Y.; Titov, V.V.; Newman, A.; Hayes, G.; Tang, L.; Chamberlin, C.

2011-01-01

Tsunami source is the origin of the subsequent transoceanic water waves, and thus the most critical component in modern tsunami forecast methodology. Although impractical to be quantified directly, a tsunami source can be estimated by different methods based on a variety of measurements provided by deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some in real time, some in post real-time. Here we assess these different sources of the devastating March 11, 2011 Japan tsunami by model-data comparison for generation, propagation and inundation in the near field of Japan. This study provides a comparative study to further understand the advantages and shortcomings of different methods that may be potentially used in real-time warning and forecast of tsunami hazards, especially in the near field. The model study also highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for high-quality tsunami forecast, and its combination with land GPS measurements may lead to better understanding of both the earthquake mechanisms and tsunami generation process. ?? 2011 MTS.

Tsunami geology in paleoseismology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuichi Nishimura,; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2015-01-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). Tsunamis are observed not only on the margin of oceans but also in lakes. The majority of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but other events that displace water such as landslides and volcanic eruptions can also generate tsunamis. These non-earthquake tsunamis occur less frequently than earthquake tsunamis; it is, therefore, very important to find and study geologic evidence for past eruption and submarine landslide triggered tsunami events, as their rare occurrence may lead to risks being underestimated. Geologic investigations of tsunamis have historically relied on earthquake geology. Geophysicists estimate the parameters of vertical coseismic displacement that tsunami modelers use as a tsunami's initial condition. The modelers then let the simulated tsunami run ashore. This approach suffers from the relationship between the earthquake and seafloor displacement, the pertinent parameter in tsunami generation, being equivocal. In recent years, geologic investigations of tsunamis have added sedimentology and micropaleontology, which focus on identifying and interpreting depositional and erosional features of tsunamis. For example, coastal sediment may contain deposits that provide important information on past tsunami events [190, 191]. In some cases, a tsunami is recorded by a single sand layer. Elsewhere, tsunami deposits can consist of complex layers of mud, sand, and boulders, containing abundant stratigraphic evidence for sediment reworking and redeposition. These onshore sediments are geologic evidence for tsunamis and are called ‘tsunami deposits’ (Figs. 26

Tsunami vulnerability of buildings and people in South Java - field observations after the July 2006 Java tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reese, S.; Cousins, W. J.; Power, W. L.; Palmer, N. G.; Tejakusuma, I. G.; Nugrahadi, S.

2007-10-01

A team of scientists from New Zealand and Indonesia undertook a reconnaissance mission to the South Java area affected by the tsunami of 17 July 2006. The team used GPS-based surveying equipment to measure ground profiles and inundation depths along 17 transects across affected areas near the port city of Cilacap and the resort town of Pangandaran. The purpose of the work was to acquire data for calibration of models used to estimate tsunami inundations, casualty rates and damage levels. Additional information was gathered from interviews with eyewitnesses. The degree of damage observed was diverse, being primarily dependant on water depth and the building construction type. Water depths were typically 2 to 4 m where housing was seriously damaged. Damage levels ranged from total for older brick houses, to about 50% for newer buildings with rudimentary reinforced-concrete beams and columns, to 5-20% for engineered residential houses and multi-storey hotels with heavier RC columns. "Punchout" of weak brick walls was widespread. Despite various natural warning signs very few people were alerted to the impending tsunami. Hence, the death toll was significant, with average death and injury rates both being about 10% of the people exposed, for water depths of about 3 m.

MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

Toward Probabilistic Risk Analyses - Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Crescent City, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, F. I.; Leveque, R. J.; Hatheway, D.; Metzger, N.

2011-12-01

Risk is defined in many ways, but most are consistent with Crichton's [1999] definition based on the ''risk triangle'' concept and the explicit identification of three risk elements: ''Risk is the probability of a loss, and this depends on three elements: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. If any of these three elements in risk increases or decreases, then the risk increases or decreases respectively." The World Meteorological Organization, for example, cites Crichton [1999] and then defines risk as [WMO, 2008] Risk = function (Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure) while the Asian Disaster Reduction Center adopts the more general expression [ADRC, 2005] Risk = function (Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure) In practice, probabilistic concepts are invariably invoked, and at least one of the three factors are specified as probabilistic in nature. The Vulnerability and Exposure factors are defined in multiple ways in the relevant literature; but the Hazard factor, which is the focus of our presentation, is generally understood to deal only with the physical aspects of the phenomena and, in particular, the ability of the phenomena to inflict harm [Thywissen, 2006]. A Hazard factor can be estimated by a methodology known as Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) [González, et al., 2009]. We will describe the PTHA methodology and provide an example -- the results of a previous application to Seaside, OR. We will also present preliminary results for a PTHA of Crescent City, CA -- a pilot project and coastal modeling/mapping effort funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region IX office as part of the new California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project (CCAMP). CCAMP and the PTHA in Crescent City are being conducted under the nationwide FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Program which focuses on providing communities with flood information and tools they can use to enhance their mitigation plans and better protect their citizens.

Modelling tsunami inundation for risk analysis at the Andaman Sea Coast of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, G.; Kortenhaus, A.

2009-04-01

The mega-tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004 strongly impacted the Andaman Sea coast of Thailand and devastated coastal ecosystems as well as towns, settlements and tourism resorts. In addition to the tragic loss of many lives, the destruction or damage of life-supporting infrastructure, such as buildings, roads, water & power supply etc. caused high economic losses in the region. To mitigate future tsunami impacts there is a need to assess the tsunami hazard and vulnerability in flood prone areas at the Andaman Sea coast in order to determine the spatial distribution of risk and to develop risk management strategies. In the bilateral German-Thai project TRAIT research is performed on integrated risk assessment for the Provinces Phang Nga and Phuket in southern Thailand, including a hazard analysis, i.e. modelling tsunami propagation to the coast, tsunami wave breaking and inundation characteristics, as well as vulnerability analysis of the socio-economic and the ecological system in order to determine the scenario-based, specific risk for the region. In this presentation results of the hazard analysis and the inundation simulation are presented and discussed. Numerical modelling of tsunami propagation and inundation simulation is an inevitable tool for risk analysis, risk management and evacuation planning. While numerous investigations have been made to model tsunami wave generation and propagation in the Indian Ocean, there is still a lack in determining detailed inundation patterns, i.e. water depth and flow dynamics. However, for risk management and evacuation planning this knowledge is essential. As the accuracy of the inundation simulation is strongly depending on the available bathymetric and the topographic data, a multi-scale approach is chosen in this work. The ETOPO Global Relief Model as a bathymetric basis and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM90) have been widely applied in tsunami modelling approaches as these data are free and almost world

Developing a global tsunami propagation database and its application for coastal hazard assessments in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, N.; Tang, L.; Titov, V.; Newman, J. C.; Dong, S.; Wei, Y.

2013-12-01

The tragedies of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have increased awareness of tsunami hazards for many nations, including China. The low land level and high population density of China's coastal areas place it at high risk for tsunami hazards. Recent research (Komatsubara and Fujiwara, 2007) highlighted concerns of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Nankai trench, which may affect China's coasts not only in South China Sea, but also in the East Sea and Yellow Sea. Here we present our work in progress towards developing a global tsunami propagation database that can be used for hazard assessments by many countries. The propagation scenarios are computed by using NOAA's MOST numerical model. Each scenario represents a typical Mw 7.5 earthquake with predefined earthquake parameters (Gica et al., 2008). The model grid was interpolated from ETOPO1 at 4 arc-min resolution, covering -80° to72°N and 0 to 360°E. We use this database for preliminary tsunami hazard assessment along China's coastlines.

Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2006-01-01

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis).

Risk mapping and tsunami mitigation in Gunungkidul area, Yogyakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mardiatno, Djati; Sunarto, WF, Lies Rahayu; Saptadi, Gatot; Ayuningtyas, Efrinda Ari

2015-04-01

Coastal area of Gunungkidul Regency is one of the areas prone to tsunami in Indonesia. In contrary, currently, this area is very intensively developed as one of the favourite tourism destination. This paper is aimed at explaining tsunami risk and a mitigation type in Gunungkidul Area, Yogyakarta. Digital elevation model (DEM) and coastal morphology were used to generate tsunami hazard map. Vulnerability was analysed by utilizing land use data. Information from previous studies (e.g. from GTZ) were also considered for analysis. Tsunami risk was classified into three classes, i.e. high risk, medium risk, and low risk and visualized in the form of tsunami risk map. Tsunami risk map is a tool which can be used as disaster reduction instrument, such as for evacuation routes planning. Based on the preliminary results of this research, it is clear that tsunami risk in this area is varied depend on the morphological condition of the location. There are five coastal area selected as the location, i.e. Ngrenehan, Baron, Sepanjang, PulangSawal, and Sadeng. All locations have the high risk zone to tsunami, especially for bay area. Evacuation routes were generated for all locations by considering the local landscape condition. There are several differences of evacuation ways for each location.

Tsunami hazards to U.S. coasts from giant earthquakes in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Holly F.; von Huene, Roland E.; Scholl, Dave; Kirby, Stephen

2012-01-01

In the aftermath of Japan's devastating 11 March 2011Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, scientists are considering whether and how a similar tsunami could be generated along the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ). A tsunami triggered by an earthquake along the AASZ would cross the Pacific Ocean and cause extensive damage along highly populated U.S. coasts, with ports being particularly vulnerable. For example, a tsunami in 1946 generated by a Mw 8.6 earthquake near Unimak Pass, Alaska (Figure 1a), caused significant damage along the U.S. West Coast, took 150 lives in Hawaii, and inundated shorelines of South Pacific islands and Antarctica [Fryer et al., 2004; Lopez and Okal, 2006]. The 1946 tsunami occurred before modern broadband seismometers were in place, and the mechanisms that created it remain poorly understood.

Analysis of tsunami disaster map by Geographic Information System (GIS): Aceh Singkil-Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhan, A.; Akhyar, H.

2017-02-01

Tsunami risk map is used by stakeholder as a base to decide evacuation plan and evaluates from disaster. Aceh Singkil district of Aceh- Indonesia’s disaster maps have been developed and analyzed by using GIS tool. Overlay methods through algorithms are used to produce hazard map, vulnerability, capacity and finally created disaster risk map. Spatial maps are used topographic maps, administrative map, SRTM. The parameters are social, economic, physical environmental vulnerability, a level of exposed people, parameters of houses, public building, critical facilities, productive land, population density, sex ratio, poor ratio, disability ratio, age group ratio, the protected forest, natural forest, and mangrove forest. The results show high-risk tsunami disaster at nine villages; moderate levels are seventeen villages, and other villages are shown in the low level of tsunami risk disaster.

Uncertainty in the Modeling of Tsunami Sediment Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, B. E.; Sugawara, D.; Goto, K.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.; La Selle, S.

2016-12-01

Erosion and deposition from tsunamis record information about tsunami hydrodynamics and size that can be interpreted to improve tsunami hazard assessment. A recent study (Jaffe et al., 2016) explores sources and methods for quantifying uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty varies with tsunami properties, study site characteristics, available input data, sediment grain size, and the model used. Although uncertainty has the potential to be large, case studies for both forward and inverse models have shown that sediment transport modeling provides useful information on tsunami inundation and hydrodynamics that can be used to improve tsunami hazard assessment. New techniques for quantifying uncertainty, such as Ensemble Kalman Filtering inversion, and more rigorous reporting of uncertainties will advance the science of tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty may be decreased with additional laboratory studies that increase our understanding of the semi-empirical parameters and physics of tsunami sediment transport, standardized benchmark tests to assess model performance, and the development of hybrid modeling approaches to exploit the strengths of forward and inverse models. As uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling is reduced, and with increased ability to quantify uncertainty, the geologic record of tsunamis will become more valuable in the assessment of tsunami hazard. Jaffe, B., Goto, K., Sugawara, D., Gelfenbaum, G., and La Selle, S., "Uncertainty in Tsunami Sediment Transport Modeling", Journal of Disaster Research Vol. 11 No. 4, pp. 647-661, 2016, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2016.p0647 https://www.fujipress.jp/jdr/dr/dsstr001100040647/

Quantification of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast; implications for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Stephen G.; Delaney, Keith B.

2015-04-01

Our assessment of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast (i.e., the coast of British Columbia) begins with a review of the 1964 tsunami generated by The Great Alaska Earthquake (M9.2) that resulted in significant damage to coastal communities and infrastructure. In particular, the tsunami waves swept up inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island and damaged several communities; Port Alberni suffered upwards of 5M worth of damage. At Port Alberni, the maximum tsunami wave height was estimated at 8.2 m above mean sea level and was recorded on the stream gauge on the Somass River located at about 7 m a.s.l, 6 km upstream from its mouth. The highest wave (9.75 m above tidal datum) was reported from Shields Bay, Graham Island, Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii). In addition, the 1964 tsunami was recorded on tide gauges at a number of locations on the BC coast. The 1964 signal and the magnitude and frequency of traces of other historical Pacific tsunamis (both far-field and local) are analysed in the Tofino tide gauge records and compared to tsunami traces in other tide gauges in the Pacific Basin (e.g., Miyako, Japan). Together with a review of the geological evidence for tsunami occurrence along Vancouver Island's west coast, we use this tide gauge data to develop a quantitative framework for tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific coast. In larger time scales, tsunamis are a major component of the hazard from Cascadia megathrust events. From sedimentological evidence and seismological considerations, the recurrence interval of megathrust events on the Cascadia Subduction Zone has been estimated by others at roughly 500 years. We assume that the hazard associated with a high-magnitude destructive tsunami thus has an annual frequency of roughly 1/500. Compared to other major natural hazards in western Canada this represents a very high annual probability of potentially destructive hazard that, in some coastal communities, translates into high levels of local risk

The Great 1787 Earthquake (M 8.6) and Tsunami along The Mexican Subduction Zone - History, Geology and Tsunami Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Lagos, M.; Goguitchaichvili, A.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Caballero, M.; Ruiz-Fernandez, A. C.; Suarez, G.; Ortuño, M.

2017-12-01

The 1787 great earthquake (M 8.6) triggered a deadly tsunami that poured over the coast of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Chiapas, along more than 500 km of the Mexican Pacific coast and up to 6 km inland. This tsunami, according with historical documents, destroyed mostly farmlands and livestock, and damaged few villages since the density of population was sparse at the time. We report first on geological evidence from the Corralero lagoon and adjacent coastal plain that seem in agreement with historical accounts. The deposit left by the 1787 tsunami can be traced along a transect of cores and test pits from the coastline and up to 1.6 km inland. The test pits showed an anomalous sand layer that was deposited in a single event in the swales of a series of beach ridges. The anomalous layer is almost continuous along the transect, about a 1000 m-long, and is formed of coarse to medium sand, at variable depths, with variable thickness, and pinching up with the distance from the coastline. We used stratigraphy, grain size, microfossils (foraminifera and diatoms), magnetic susceptibility and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility proxies to reveal the nature of this anomalous sand layer. Stratigraphy, abrupt contacts, and magnetic properties support a sudden and rapid event, consisting of sands transported most probably by an extreme sea-wave far inland. Furthermore, based on the accounts of the 1787 earthquake (M 8.6) and tsunami, and estimates from 210Pb sedimentation rates, we suggest that this is the tsunami deposit left by the 1787 event. Tsunami modeling will further enhance the hazard and risk assessment of this area in Mexico.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

2016-12-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

2017-12-01

The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn

2017-04-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Preliminary assessment of the impacts and effects of the South Pacific tsunami of September 2009 in Samoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, D.

2009-12-01

The September 2009 tsunami was a regional South Pacific event of enormous significance. Our UNESCO-IOC ITST Samoa survey used a simplified version of a ‘coupled human-environment systems framework’ (Turner et al., 2003) to investigate the impacts and effects of the tsunami in Samoa. Further, the framework allowed us to identify those factors that affected the vulnerability and resilience of the human-environment system before, during and after the tsunami - a global first. Key findings (unprocessed) include: Maximum run-up exceeded 14 metres above sea level Maximum inundation (at right angles to the shore) was approximately 400 metres Maximum inundation with the wave running parallel with the shore (but inland), exceeded 700 metres Buildings sustained varying degrees of damage Damage was correlated with depth of tsunami flow, velocity, condition of foundations, quality of building materials used, quality of workmanship, adherence to the building code and so on Buildings raised even one metre above the surrounding land surface suffered much less damage Plants, trees and mangroves reduced flow velocity and flow depth - leading to greater chances of human survival and lower levels of building damage The tsunami has left a clear and distinguishable geological record in terms of sediments deposited in the coastal landscape The clear sediment layer associated with this tsunami suggests that older (and prehistoric) tsunamis can be identified, helping to answer questions about frequency and magnitude of tsunamis The tsunami caused widespread erosion of the coastal and beach zones but this damage will repair itself naturally and quickly The tsunami has had clear impacts on ecosystems and these are highly variable Ecosystems will repair themselves naturally and are unlikely to preserve long-term impacts It is clear that some plant (tree) species are highly resilient and provided immediate places for safety during the tsunami and resources post-tsunami People of Samoa are

A Tsunami Model for Chile for (Re) Insurance Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arango, Cristina; Rara, Vaclav; Puncochar, Petr; Trendafiloski, Goran; Ewing, Chris; Podlaha, Adam; Vatvani, Deepak; van Ormondt, Maarten; Chandler, Adrian

2014-05-01

. Earthquake-induced static seabed vertical displacement is used as an input boundary condition to the model. The model is hierarchically set up with three nested domain levels; with 250 domains in total covering the entire Chilean coast. Spatial grid-cell resolution is equal to the native SRTM resolution of approximately 90m. In addition to the stochastic events, the 1960 (M9.5) Valdivia and 2010 (M8.8) Maule earthquakes are modelled. The modelled tsunami inundation map for the 2010 Maule event is validated through comparison with real observations. The vulnerability component consists of an extensive damage curves database, including curves for buildings, contents and business interruption for 21 occupancies, 24 structural types and two secondary modifies such as building height and period of construction. The building damage curves are developed by use of load-based method in which the building's capacity to resist tsunami loads is treated as equivalent to the design earthquake load capacity. The contents damage and business interruption curves are developed by use of deductive approach i.e. HAZUS flood vulnerability and business function restoration models are adapted for detailed occupancies and then assigned to the dominant structural types in Chile. The vulnerability component is validated through model overall back testing by use of observed aggregated earthquake and tsunami losses for client portfolios for 2010 Maule earthquake.

Tsunami hazard assessment along the U. S. East Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tajalli Bakhsh, T.; Grilli, S. T.; Harris, J. C.; Kirby, J. T.; Shi, F.; Tehranirad, B.

2012-12-01

In 2005, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) was tasked by Congress to develop tsunami inundation maps for the entire US coastline. This work provides an overview of the modeling work related to the development inundation maps along the US east coast. In this region the paucity of historical tsunami records and lack of paleotsunami observations yields a large uncertainty on the source and magnitude of potential extreme tsunami events, and their related coastal hazard. In the Atlantic Ocean basin significant tsunami hazard may result from far-field earthquakes, such as a repeat of the M8.9 Lisbon 1755 event in the Azores convergence zone, or a hypothetical extreme M9 earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT). Additionally, it is believed that a repeat of one of the large historical collapses, identified at the toe of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma (Canary Islands; i.e., with a maximum volume of 450 km3), could pose a major tsunami hazard to the entire US east coast. Finally, in the near-field, large submarine mass failure (SMF) scars have been mapped by USGS, particularly North of the Carolinas (e.g., Currituck), which are believed to have caused past tsunamis. Large SMFs can be triggered by moderate seismicity (M7 or so), such as can occur on the east coast. In fact, one of the few historical tsunamis that significantly affected this region was caused by the 1929 Grand Bank underwater slide, which was triggered by a M7.2 earthquake. In this work we identify and parameterize all potential tsunami sources affecting the US east coast, and perform simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal impact in a series of increasingly resolved nested grids. Following this methodology, tsunami inundation maps are currently being developed for a few of the most affected areas. In simulations, we use a robust and well-validated Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq long-wave model (FUNWAVE-TVD), on Cartesian or spherical grids. Coseismic tsunami

Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toshiaki Sakai; Tomoyoshi Takeda; Hiroshi Soraoka

2006-07-01

It is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present anmore » example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed. (authors)« less

Tsunami.gov: NOAA's Tsunami Information Portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiro, B.; Carrick, J.; Hellman, S. B.; Bernard, M.; Dildine, W. P.

2014-12-01

We present the new Tsunami.gov website, which delivers a single authoritative source of tsunami information for the public and emergency management communities. The site efficiently merges information from NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC's) by way of a comprehensive XML feed called Tsunami Event XML (TEX). The resulting unified view allows users to quickly see the latest tsunami alert status in geographic context without having to understand complex TWC areas of responsibility. The new site provides for the creation of a wide range of products beyond the traditional ASCII-based tsunami messages. The publication of modern formats such as Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) can drive geographically aware emergency alert systems like FEMA's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS). Supported are other popular information delivery systems, including email, text messaging, and social media updates. The Tsunami.gov portal allows NOAA staff to easily edit content and provides the facility for users to customize their viewing experience. In addition to access by the public, emergency managers and government officials may be offered the capability to log into the portal for special access rights to decision-making and administrative resources relevant to their respective tsunami warning systems. The site follows modern HTML5 responsive design practices for optimized use on mobile as well as non-mobile platforms. It meets all federal security and accessibility standards. Moving forward, we hope to expand Tsunami.gov to encompass tsunami-related content currently offered on separate websites, including the NOAA Tsunami Website, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, National Geophysical Data Center's Tsunami Database, and National Data Buoy Center's DART Program. This project is part of the larger Tsunami Information Technology Modernization Project, which is consolidating the software architectures of NOAA's existing TWC's into

Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM).

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles

2007-06-01

Quantifying vulnerability to critical infrastructure has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a model that quantifies vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. This article asserts that vulnerability is a condition of the system and it can be quantified using the Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). The model is presented and then applied to a medium-sized clean water system. The model requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to establish value functions and weights, and to assess protection measures of the system. Simulation is used to account for uncertainty in measurement, aggregate expert assessment, and to yield a vulnerability (Omega) density function. Results demonstrate that I-VAM is useful to decisionmakers who prefer quantification to qualitative treatment of vulnerability. I-VAM can be used to quantify vulnerability to other infrastructures, supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), and distributed control systems (DCS).

Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Huerta, Laura G.; Ortiz, Modesto; García-Gastélum, Alejandro

2018-03-01

Historical records of the Chile (22 May 1960), Alaska (27 March 1964), and Tohoku (11 March 2011) tsunamis recorded along the Pacific Coast of Mexico are used to investigate the goodness of far-field tsunami modeling using a focal mechanism consisting in a uniform slip distribution on large thrust faults around the Pacific Ocean. The Tohoku 2011 tsunami records recorded by Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations, and at coastal tide stations, were used to validate transoceanic tsunami models applicable to the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco on the coast of Mexico. The amplitude resulting from synthetic tsunamis originated by M w 9.3 earthquakes around the Pacific varies from 1 to 2.5 m, depending on the tsunami origin region and on the directivity due to fault orientation and waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief.

Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Huerta, Laura G.; Ortiz, Modesto; García-Gastélum, Alejandro

2018-04-01

Historical records of the Chile (22 May 1960), Alaska (27 March 1964), and Tohoku (11 March 2011) tsunamis recorded along the Pacific Coast of Mexico are used to investigate the goodness of far-field tsunami modeling using a focal mechanism consisting in a uniform slip distribution on large thrust faults around the Pacific Ocean. The Tohoku 2011 tsunami records recorded by Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations, and at coastal tide stations, were used to validate transoceanic tsunami models applicable to the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco on the coast of Mexico. The amplitude resulting from synthetic tsunamis originated by M w 9.3 earthquakes around the Pacific varies from 1 to 2.5 m, depending on the tsunami origin region and on the directivity due to fault orientation and waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief.

Rapid health assessment in Aceh Jaya District, Indonesia, following the December 26 tsunami.

PubMed

Brennan, Richard J; Rimba, Kamaruddin

2005-08-01

To rapidly determine the public health impact of the Asian tsunami on the population of three communities in Aceh Jaya District, Indonesia, and to prioritize health interventions. Rapid health assessment, utilizing direct observations, interviews with key informants, a single focus group discussion, town mapping, a review of medical records and a systematic random sample of the entire town of Calang, capital of Aceh Jaya District, Indonesia. Almost 100% of dwellings were destroyed in all three communities. For the town of Calang: only 18.2% of the pre-tsunami population remained 2 weeks following the disaster, with an estimated 70% of the population having died at the time of impact; government estimates of the remaining population were inflated by approximately 250%; mortality rates were not elevated post-tsunami; 100% of the population lacked access to sanitation and clean water; 85% of children under 5 years reported diarrhoea over the preceding 2 week period; 95% of individuals with a medical complaint reported satisfactory access to clinical care; acute malnutrition was not a significant problem; and over one-fifth of households were hosting an orphan. For the villages of Rigah and Sayeung: approximately 46.2 and 86.0% of the population survived the tsunami impact, respectively; mortality rates were not elevated post tsunami; 100% of the population lacked access to sanitation and clean water; diarrhoea was the main cause of morbidity; primary care services were available only in Rigah; and only Rigah had received external assistance. Almost two-thirds of the population of the three communities died as a result of the tsunami's impact. Although mortality rates were not elevated post tsunami, significant threats to public health persisted, especially water-borne diseases. Priority activities included emergent environmental health interventions, mobile clinics to the two villages and a more detailed assessment of the needs of orphans. Data were shared with

Analysis of tsunami disaster resilience in Bandar Lampung Bay Coastal Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alhamidi; Pakpahan, V. H.; Simanjuntak, J. E. S.

2018-05-01

The coastal area is an area that has potential diversity of natural resources and high economic value. The coastal area is influenced by changes in land and sea so that the coastal areas are highly vulnerable to tsunami. Bandar Lampung has the potential of coastal areas of considerable potential as it is located in the bay adjacent to the Sunda Strait. Based on the study of Heru Sri Naryanto (2003), Bandar Lampung ranks third from the level of vulnerability to tsunami. Therefore, the purpose of this study to determine the readiness of the region in facing tsunami and the magnitude of the potential risks of tsunami disaster in the Gulf Coast region of Lampung in Bandar Lampung; thus, it needs to make the model or concept of tsunami disaster mitigation appropriate in terms of vulnerability and danger in creating the resilience of the Gulf Coast region of Lampung in Bandar Lampung against tsunami. The methodology used in this study was the methods of primary and secondary data collection, and the data analysis method was quantitative analysis such as spatial analysis and descriptive analysis of the data obtained from the field. The results showed that the level of preparedness in the Gulf coast region of Lampung in Bandar Lampung in facing the tsunami was still low. There are still many developed regions or houses belonging to the community either fishermen or non-fishermen located in a tsunami hazard zone. Other than that, the level of education in the Gulf coast region of Lampung in Bandar Lampung is still low where the majority of inhabitants work as fishermen. Besides, the infrastructure is old and not well-maintained so that it becomes a slum area. Therefore, the development and planning to mitigate the natural disasters tsunami using technology of IOT (Internet of Things) is an embeded system with the use of sensor seismic as a means of pre-Earthquakes vibrations, placed both on the land and in the ocean, to read the vibrations and faults in the earth’s crust

Tsunami Waves Joint Inversion Using Tsunami Inundation, Tsunami Deposits Distribution and Marine-Terrestrial Sediment Signal in Tsunami Deposit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, H.; WANG, J.

2017-12-01

Population living close to coastlines is increasing, which creates higher risks due to coastal hazards, such as the tsunami. However, the generation of a tsunami is not fully understood yet, especially for paleo-tsunami. Tsunami deposits are one of the concrete evidence in the geological record which we can apply for studying paleo-tsunami. The understanding of tsunami deposits has significantly improved over the last decades. There are many inversion models (e.g. TsuSedMod, TSUFLIND, and TSUFLIND-EnKF) to study the overland-flow characteristics based on tsunami deposits. However, none of them tries to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave characteristics (wave form, wave height, and length) based on tsunami deposits. Here we present a state-of-the-art inverse approach to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave based on the tsunami inundation data, the spatial distribution of tsunami deposits and Marine-terrestrial sediment signal in the tsunami deposits. Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Method is used for assimilating both sediment transport simulations and the field observation data. While more computationally expensive, the EnKF approach potentially provides more accurate reconstructions for tsunami waveform. In addition to the improvement of inversion results, the ensemble-based method can also quantify the uncertainties of the results. Meanwhile, joint inversion improves the resolution of tsunami waves compared with inversions using any single data type. The method will be tested by field survey data and gauge data from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami on Sendai plain area.

Hazard Assessment and Early Warning of Tsunamis: Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satake, K.

2012-12-01

. Tsunami hazard assessments or long-term forecast of earthquakes have not considered such a triggering or simultaneous occurrence of different types of earthquakes. The large tsunami at the Fukushima nuclear power station was due to the combination of the deep and shallow slip. Disaster prevention for low-frequency but large-scale hazard must be considered. The Japanese government established a general policy to for two levels: L1 and L2. The L2 tsunamis are the largest possible tsunamis with low frequency of occurrence, but cause devastating disaster once they occur. For such events, saving people's lives is the first priority and soft measures such as tsunami hazard maps, evacuation facilities or disaster education will be prepared. The L1 tsunamis are expected to occur more frequently, typically once in a few decades, for which hard countermeasures such as breakwater must be prepared to protect lives and properties of residents as well as economic and industrial activities.

Tsunami run-up and inundation along the coast of Sabah and Sarawak, Malaysia due to a potential Brunei submarine mass failure.

PubMed

Tan, Wai Kiat; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

2017-07-01

Submarine landslides, also known as submarine mass failures (SMFs), are major natural marine disasters that could critically damage coastal facilities such as nuclear power plants and oil and gas platforms. It is therefore essential to investigate submarine landslides for potential tsunami hazard assessment. Three-dimensional seismic data from offshore Brunei have revealed a giant seabed mass deposited by a previous SMF. The submarine mass extends over 120 km from the continental slope of the Baram Canyon at 200 m water depth to the deep basin floor of the Northwest Borneo Trough. A suite of in-house two-dimensional depth-averaged tsunami simulation model TUNA (Tsunami-tracking Utilities and Application) is developed to assess the vulnerability of coastal communities in Sabah and Sarawak subject to potential SMF tsunami. The submarine slide is modeled as a rigid body moving along a planar slope with the center of mass motion parallel to the planar slope and subject to external forces due to added mass, gravity, and dissipation. The nonlinear shallow water equations are utilized to simulate tsunami propagation from deepwater up to the shallow offshore areas. A wetting-drying algorithm is used when a tsunami wave reaches the shoreline to compute run up of tsunami along the shoreline. Run-up wave height and inundation maps are provided for seven densely populated locations in Sabah and Sarawak to highlight potential risks at each location, subject to two scenarios of slide slopes: 2° and 4°. The first wave may arrive at Kudat as early as 0.4 h after the SMF, giving local communities little time to evacuate. Over a small area, maximum inundated depths reaching 20.3 m at Kudat, 26.1 m at Kota Kinabalu, and 15.5 m at Miri are projected, while the maximum inundation distance of 4.86 km is expected at Miri due to its low-lying coast. In view of the vulnerability of some locations to the SMF tsunami, it is important to develop and implement community resilience

A review of potential tsunami impacts to the Suez Canal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finkl, C.; Pelinovsky, E.

2012-04-01

Destructive tsunamis in the eastern Mediterranean and Red seas, induced by earthquakes and/or volcanic activity, pose potential hazards to docked seaport shipping and fixed harbor infrastructure as well as to in-transit international shipping within the Suez Canal. Potential vulnerabilities of the Suez Canal to possible tsunami impacts are reviewed by reference to geological, historical, archaeoseismological, and anecdotal data. Tsunami catalogues and databases compiled by earlier researchers are perused to estimate potential return periods for tsunami events that could affect directly the Suez Canal and its closely associated operational infrastructures. Analysis of these various records indicates a centurial return period, or multiples thereof, for long-wave repetition that could generally affect the Nile Delta. It is estimated that tsunami waves 2 m high would have a breaking length about 5 km down Canal whereas a 10 m wave break would occur about 1 km into the Canal. Should a tsunami strike the eastern flanks of the Nile Delta, it would damage Egypt's maritime infrastructure and multi-national commercial vessels and military ships then using the Canal.

Assessing the security vulnerabilities of correctional facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, Debra D.; Morrison, G. Steve

1998-12-01

The National Institute of Justice has tasked their satellite facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps identify the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion from outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees. In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Titov, Vasily V.; Arcas, Diego; Pollitz, Fred F.; Bilek, Susan L.

2007-01-01

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the

Scenario Based Approach for Multiple Source Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Sines, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wronna, Martin; Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana

2015-04-01

In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal one the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean to the southwest facing the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, a total of five scenarios were selected to assess tsunami impact at the test site. These scenarios correspond to the worst-case credible scenario approach based upon the largest events of the historical and paleo tsunami catalogues. The tsunami simulations from the source area towards the coast is carried out using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. The code solves the non-linear shallow water equations using the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme, in a Cartesian or Spherical frame. The initial sea surface displacement is assumed to be equal to the sea bottom deformation that is computed by Okada equations. Both uniform and non-uniform slip conditions are used. The presented results correspond to the models using non-uniform slip conditions. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water) MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawdown, run-up and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gages at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results consist of Aggregate Scenario Maps presented for the different inundation parameters. This work is funded by ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability...

Impact of earthquake source complexity and land elevation data resolution on tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro

2018-03-01

This study investigates the impact of model complexity in source characterization and digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on the accuracy of tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation through a case study in Padang, Indonesia. Two types of earthquake source models, i.e. complex and uniform slip models, are adopted by considering three resolutions of DEMs, i.e. 150 m, 50 m, and 10 m. For each of the three grid resolutions, 300 complex source models are generated using new statistical prediction models of earthquake source parameters developed from extensive finite-fault models of past subduction earthquakes, whilst 100 uniform slip models are constructed with variable fault geometry without slip heterogeneity. The results highlight that significant changes to tsunami hazard and fatality estimates are observed with regard to earthquake source complexity and grid resolution. Coarse resolution (i.e. 150 m) leads to inaccurate tsunami hazard prediction and fatality estimation, whilst 50-m and 10-m resolutions produce similar results. However, velocity and momentum flux are sensitive to the grid resolution and hence, at least 10-m grid resolution needs to be implemented when considering flow-based parameters for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. In addition, the results indicate that the tsunami hazard parameters and fatality number are more sensitive to the complexity of earthquake source characterization than the grid resolution. Thus, the uniform models are not recommended for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments. Finally, the findings confirm that uncertainties of tsunami hazard level and fatality in terms of depth, velocity and momentum flux can be captured and visualized through the complex source modeling approach. From tsunami risk management perspectives, this indeed creates big data, which are useful for making effective and robust decisions.

Development and Application of a Message Metric for NOAA NWS Tsunami Warnings and Recommended Guidelines for the NWS TsunamiReady Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D. M.; Ricthie, L.; Meinhold, S.; Johnson, V.; Scott, C.; Farnham, C.; Houghton, B. F.; Horan, J.; Gill, D.

2012-12-01

Improving the quality and effectiveness of tsunami warning messages and the TsunamiReady community preparedness program of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service's (NWS), Tsunami Program are two key objectives of a three year project (Award NA10NWS4670015) to help integrate social science into the NWS' Tsunami Program and improve the preparedness of member states and territories of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). Research was conducted in collaboration with state and local emergency managers. Based on findings from focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa), and upon review of research literature on behavioral response to warnings, we developed a warning message metric to help guide revisions to tsunami warning messages issued by the NWS' West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, Alaska and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Hawaii. The metric incorporates factors that predict response to warning information, which are divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the meaning of metric factors and assigning a maximum score of one point per factor. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. From focus groups that gathered information on the usefulness and achievability of tsunami preparedness actions, we developed recommendations for revisions to the proposed draft guidelines of the TsunamiReady Improvement Program. Proposed key revisions include the incorporation of community vulnerability to distant (far-field) versus local (near-field) tsunamis as a primary determinant of mandatory actions, rather than community population. Our team continues to work with

Tsunami hazard maps of spanish coast at national scale from seismic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; González, Mauricio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; García, Pablo

2017-04-01

Tsunamis are a moderately frequent phenomenon in the NEAM (North East Atlantic and Mediterranean) region, and consequently in Spain, as historic and recent events have affected this area. I.e., the 1755 earthquake and tsunami affected the Spanish Atlantic coasts of Huelva and Cadiz and the 2003 Boumerdés earthquake triggered a tsunami that reached Balearic island coast in less than 45 minutes. The risk in Spain is real and, its population and tourism rate makes it vulnerable to this kind of catastrophic events. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the tsunami in Japan in 2011 launched the worldwide development and application of tsunami risk reduction measures that have been taken as a priority in this field. On November 20th 2015 the directive of the Spanish civil protection agency on planning under the emergency of tsunami was presented. As part of the Spanish National Security strategy, this document specifies the structure of the action plans at different levels: National, regional and local. In this sense, the first step is the proper evaluation of the tsunami hazard at National scale. This work deals with the assessment of the tsunami hazard in Spain, by means of numerical simulations, focused on the elaboration of tsunami hazard maps at National scale. To get this, following a deterministic approach, the seismic structures whose earthquakes could generate the worst tsunamis affecting the coast of Spain have been compiled and characterized. These worst sources have been propagated numerically along a reconstructed bathymetry, built from the best resolution available data. This high-resolution bathymetry was joined with a 25-m resolution DTM, to generate continuous offshore-onshore space, allowing the calculation of the flooded areas prompted by each selected source. The numerical model applied for the calculation of the tsunami propagations was COMCOT. The maps resulting from the numerical simulations show not only the tsunami amplitude at coastal areas but

Response to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami disaster.

PubMed

Koshimura, Shunichi; Shuto, Nobuo

2015-10-28

We revisited the lessons of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami disaster specifically on the response and impact, and discussed the paradigm shift of Japan's tsunami disaster management policies and the perspectives for reconstruction. Revisiting the modern histories of Tohoku tsunami disasters and pre-2011 tsunami countermeasures, we clarified how Japan's coastal communities have prepared for tsunamis. The discussion mainly focuses on structural measures such as seawalls and breakwaters and non-structural measures of hazard map and evacuation. The responses to the 2011 event are discussed specifically on the tsunami warning system and efforts to identify the tsunami impacts. The nation-wide post-tsunami survey results shed light on the mechanisms of structural destruction, tsunami loads and structural vulnerability to inform structural rehabilitation measures and land-use planning. Remarkable paradigm shifts in designing coastal protection and disaster mitigation measures were introduced, leading with a new concept of potential tsunami levels: Prevention (Level 1) and Mitigation (Level 2) levels according to the level of 'protection'. The seawall is designed with reference to Level 1 tsunami scenario, while comprehensive disaster management measures should refer to Level 2 tsunami for protection of human lives and reducing potential losses and damage. Throughout the case study in Sendai city, the proposed reconstruction plan was evaluated from the tsunami engineering point of view to discuss how the post 2011 paradigm was implemented in coastal communities for future disaster mitigation. The analysis revealed that Sendai city's multiple protection measures for Level 2 tsunami will contribute to a substantial reduction of the tsunami inundation zone and potential losses, combined with an effective tsunami evacuation plan. © 2015 The Author(s).

Housing anxiety and multiple geographies in post-tsunami Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Boano, Camillo

2009-10-01

Tsunami intervention has been an extraordinary and unprecedented relief and recovery operation. This article underlines the complexities posed by shelter and housing intervention in post-tsunami Sri Lanka, revealing a pragmatic, reductionist approach to shelter and housing reconstruction in a contested and fragmented environment. Competition, housing anxiety and buffer zone implementation have resulted in compulsory villagisation inland, stirring feelings of discrimination and tension, and becoming major obstacles to equitable rebuilding of houses and livelihoods. A new tsunami geography has been imposed on an already vulnerable conflict-based geography, in which shelter has been conceived as a mono-dimensional artefact. An analysis of the process and outcomes of temporary and permanent post-tsunami housing programmes yields information about the extent to which shelter policies and programmes serve not only physical needs but 'higher order' objectives for a comprehensive and sustainable recovery plan.

Pedestrian Evacuation Analysis for Tsunami Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

Recent catastrophic tsunamis in the last decade, as well as the 50th anniversary of the 1964 Alaskan event, have heightened awareness of the threats these natural hazards present to large and increasing coastal populations. For communities located close to the earthquake epicenter that generated the tsunami, strong shaking may also cause significant infrastructure damage, impacting the road network and hampering evacuation. There may also be insufficient time between the earthquake and first wave arrival to rely on a coordinated evacuation, leaving at-risk populations to self-evacuate on foot and across the landscape. Emergency managers evaluating these coastal risks need tools to assess the evacuation potential of low-lying areas in order to discuss mitigation options, which may include vertical evacuation structures to provide local safe havens in vulnerable communities. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software tool for use by researchers and emergency managers to assist in the assessment of a community's evacuation potential by modeling travel times across the landscape and producing both maps of travel times and charts of population counts with corresponding times. The tool uses an anisotropic (directionally dependent) least cost distance model to estimate evacuation potential and allows for the variation of travel speed to measure its effect on travel time. The effectiveness of vertical evacuation structures on evacuation time can also be evaluated and compared with metrics such as travel time maps showing each structure in place and graphs displaying the percentage change in population exposure for each structure against the baseline. Using the tool, travel time maps and at-risk population counts have been generated for some coastal communities of the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Alaska. The tool can also be used to provide valuable decision support for tsunami vertical evacuation siting.

Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gonzalez, Frank

2009-04-06

After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

ScienceCinema

Gonzalez, Frank

2017-12-09

After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

Lessons from the Tōhoku tsunami: A model for island avifauna conservation prioritization.

PubMed

Reynolds, Michelle H; Berkowitz, Paul; Klavitter, John L; Courtot, Karen N

2017-08-01

Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011) and its inundation extent across four Hawaiian Islands. We estimated short-term effects of sudden flooding to bird communities using spatially explicit data from Midway Atoll and Laysan Island, Hawai'i. We describe variation in species vulnerability based on breeding phenology, nesting habitat, and life history traits. The tsunami inundated 21%-100% of each island's area at Midway Atoll and Laysan Island. Procellariformes (albatrosses and petrels) chick and egg losses exceeded 258,500 at Midway Atoll while albatross chick losses at Laysan Island exceeded 21,400. The tsunami struck at night and during the peak of nesting for 14 colonial seabird species. Strongly philopatric Procellariformes were vulnerable to the tsunami. Nonmigratory, endemic, endangered Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ) were sensitive to ecosystem effects such as habitat changes and carcass-initiated epizootics of avian botulism, and its populations declined approximately 40% on both atolls post-tsunami. Catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands occurs periodically not only from tsunamis, but also from storm surge and rainfall; with sea-level rise, the frequency of sudden flooding events will likely increase. As invasive predators occupy habitat on higher elevation Hawaiian Islands and globally important avian populations are concentrated on low-lying islands

Lessons from the Tōhoku tsunami: A model for island avifauna conservation prioritization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Klavitter, John; Courtot, Karen

2017-01-01

Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011) and its inundation extent across four Hawaiian Islands. We estimated short-term effects of sudden flooding to bird communities using spatially explicit data from Midway Atoll and Laysan Island, Hawai'i. We describe variation in species vulnerability based on breeding phenology, nesting habitat, and life history traits. The tsunami inundated 21%–100% of each island's area at Midway Atoll and Laysan Island. Procellariformes (albatrosses and petrels) chick and egg losses exceeded 258,500 at Midway Atoll while albatross chick losses at Laysan Island exceeded 21,400. The tsunami struck at night and during the peak of nesting for 14 colonial seabird species. Strongly philopatric Procellariformes were vulnerable to the tsunami. Nonmigratory, endemic, endangered Laysan Teal (Anas laysanensis) were sensitive to ecosystem effects such as habitat changes and carcass-initiated epizootics of avian botulism, and its populations declined approximately 40% on both atolls post-tsunami. Catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands occurs periodically not only from tsunamis, but also from storm surge and rainfall; with sea-level rise, the frequency of sudden flooding events will likely increase. As invasive predators occupy habitat on higher elevation Hawaiian Islands and globally important avian populations are concentrated on low-lying islands

Tsunami hazard assessment along the French Mediterranean coast : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the ALDES project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hébert, H.

2012-04-01

The catastrophic 2004 tsunami drew the international community's attention to tsunami risk in all basins where tsunamis occurred but no warning system exists. Consequently, under the coordination of UNESCO, France decided to create a regional center, called CENALT, for the north-east Atlantic and the western Mediterranean. This warning system, which should be operational by 2012, is set up by the CEA in collaboration with the SHOM and the CNRS. The French authorities are in charge of the top-down alert system including the local alert dissemination. In order to prepare the appropriate means and measures, they initiated the ALDES (Alerte Descendante) project to which the CEA also contributes. It aims at examining along the French Mediterranean coast the tsunami risk related to earthquakes and landslides. In addition to the evaluation at regional scale, it includes the detailed studies of 3 selected sites; the local alert system will be designed for one of them : the French Riviera. In this project, our main task at CEA consists in assessing tsunami hazard related to seismic sources using numerical modeling. Past tsunamis have affected the west Mediterranean coast but are too few and poorly documented to provide a suitable database. Thus, a synthesis of earthquakes representative of the tsunamigenic seismic activity and prone to induce the largest impact to the French coast is performed based on historical data, seismotectonics and first order models. The North Africa Margin, the Ligurian and the South Tyrrhenian Seas are considered as the main tsunamigenic zones. In order to forecast the most important plausible effects, the magnitudes are estimated by enhancing to some extent the largest known values. Our hazard estimation is based on the simulation of the induced tsunamis scenarios performed with the CEA code. The 3 sites have been chosen according to the regional hazard studies, coastal typology elements and the appropriate DTMs (Digital Terrain Models). The

Historic Tsunami in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, D.; Cummins, P. R.; Burbidge, D.

2005-12-01

The 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami dramatically highlighted the need for a better understanding of the tsunami hazard in the Indian Ocean. One of the most important foundations on which to base such an assessment is knowledge of tsunami that have affected the region in the historical past. We present a summary of the previously published catalog of Indian Ocean tsunami and the results of a preliminary search of archival material held at the India Records Office at the British Library in London. We demonstrate that in some cases, normal tidal movements and floods associated with tropical cyclones have been erroneously listed as tsunami. We summarise interesting archival material for tsunami that occurred in 1945, 1941, 1881, 1819, 1762 and a tsunami in 1843 not previously identified or reported. We also note the recent discovery, by a Canadian team during a post-tsunami survey following the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, of archival evidence that the Great Sumatra Earthquake of 1833 generated a teletsunami. Open ocean wave heights are calculated for some of the historical tsunami and compared with those of the Boxing Day Tsunami.

Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

PubMed

Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

2017-09-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of Efficiency and Performance in Tsunami Numerical Modeling with GPU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalciner, Bora; Zaytsev, Andrey

2017-04-01

: 603839 (Project ASTARTE-Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). PARI, Japan and NOAA, USA are acknowledged for the data of the measurements. Prof. Ahmet C. Yalciner is also acknowledged for his long term and sustained support to the authors.

U.S. Tsunami Information technology (TIM) Modernization: Performance Assessment of Tsunamigenic Earthquake Discrimination System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagerty, M. T.; Lomax, A.; Hellman, S. B.; Whitmore, P.; Weinstein, S.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Knight, W. R.

2015-12-01

Tsunami warning centers must rapidly decide whether an earthquake is likely to generate a destructive tsunami in order to issue a tsunami warning quickly after a large event. For very large events (Mw > 8 or so), magnitude and location alone are sufficient to warrant an alert. However, for events of smaller magnitude (e.g., Mw ~ 7.5), particularly for so-called "tsunami earthquakes", magnitude alone is insufficient to issue an alert and other measurements must be rapidly made and used to assess tsunamigenic potential. The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). We (ISTI) are responsible for implementing the seismic monitoring components in this new system, including real-time seismic data collection and seismic processing. The seismic data processor includes a variety of methods aimed at real-time discrimination of tsunamigenic events, including: Mwp, Me, slowness (Theta), W-phase, mantle magnitude (Mm), array processing and finite-fault inversion. In addition, it contains the ability to designate earthquake scenarios and play the resulting synthetic seismograms through the processing system. Thus, it is also a convenient tool that integrates research and monitoring and may be used to calibrate and tune the real-time monitoring system. Here we show results of the automated processing system for a large dataset of subduction zone earthquakes containing recent tsunami earthquakes and we examine the accuracy of the various discrimation methods and discuss issues related to their successful real-time application.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-12-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

A conceptual framework for evaluating tsunami resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pushpalal, Dinil

2017-02-01

As many coastal towns in the northeast coast of Japan were destroyed by tsunami accompanied with the Great East Japan Earthquake, a few of them were survived or little damaged with no or less casualties due to some reasons. Yoshihama in Iwate prefecture is one of such little damaged communities and is known as “Lucky Beach.” There were such “lucky” and “unlucky” regions in Indonesia and Sri Lanka too, which were affected by Indian Ocean Tsunami. Identification of reasons for vulnerability or resilience is the primary consideration of this article. It presents pragmatic conceptual framework for evaluating resilience, based on author’s firsthand experience on above both tsunamis. Integral resilience of a given area has been considered after dividing into three phases namely, onsite resilience, instantaneous survivability, and recovery potentiality of the area. The author assumes that capacity of each phase depends on socioeconomic, infrastructural and geographical factors of the area considered. The paper moves forward, arguing appropriateness of the framework by giving examples collected from Japan, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. The framework will be useful for evaluating resilience of coastal townships and also planning resilient townships, specifically focusing on tsunami.

A Comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Multiple Sources and Short-Term Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anita, G.; Selva, J.; Laura, S.

2011-12-01

We develop a comprehensive and total probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (TotPTHA), in which many different possible source types concur to the definition of the total tsunami hazard at given target sites. In a multi-hazard and multi-risk perspective, such an innovative approach allows, in principle, to consider all possible tsunamigenic sources, from seismic events, to slides, asteroids, volcanic eruptions, etc. In this respect, we also formally introduce and discuss the treatment of interaction/cascade effects in the TotPTHA analysis. We demonstrate how external triggering events may induce significant temporary variations in the tsunami hazard. Because of this, such effects should always be considered, at least in short-term applications, to obtain unbiased analyses. Finally, we prove the feasibility of the TotPTHA and of the treatment of interaction/cascade effects by applying this methodology to an ideal region with realistic characteristics (Neverland).

Numerical tool for tsunami risk assessment in the southern coast of Dominican Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias Sanchez, J.; Llorente Isidro, M.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Sr.; Castro, M. J.

2016-12-01

The southern coast of Dominican Republic is a very populated region, with several important cities including Santo Domingo, its capital. Important activities are rooted in the southern coast including tourism, industry, commercial ports, and, energy facilities, among others. According to historical reports, it has been impacted by big earthquakes accompanied by tsunamis as in Azua in 1751 and recently Pedernales in 2010, but their sources are not clearly identified. The aim of the present work is to develop a numerical tool to simulate the impact in the southern coast of the Dominican Republic of tsunamis generated in the Caribbean Sea. This tool, based on the Tsunami-HySEA model from EDANYA group (University of Malaga, Spain), could be used in the framework of a Tsunami Early Warning Systems due the very short computing times when only propagation is computed or it could be used to assess inundation impact, computing inundation with a initial 5 meter resolution. Numerical results corresponding to three theoretical sources are used to test the numerical tool.

A game theory approach for assessing risk value and deploying search-and-rescue resources after devastating tsunamis.

PubMed

Wu, Cheng-Kuang

2018-04-01

The current early-warning system and tsunami protection measures tend to fall short because they always underestimate the level of destruction, and it is difficult to predict the level of damage by a devastating tsunami on uncertain targets. As we know, the key to minimizing the total number of fatalities after a disaster is the deployment of search and rescue efforts in the first few hours. However, the resources available to the affected districts for emergency response may be limited. This study proposes two game theoretic models that are designed for search-and-rescue resource allocation. First, the interactions between a compounded disaster and a response agent in the affected district are modelled as a non-cooperative game, after which the risk value is derived for each district from the Nash equilibrium. The risk value represents the threat, vulnerability, and consequence of a specific disaster for the affected district. Second, the risk values for fifteen districts are collected for calculation of each district's Shapley value. Then an acceptable plan for resource deployment among all districts is made based on their expected marginal contribution. The model is verified in a simulation based upon 2011 tsunami data. The experimental results show the proposed approach to be more efficient than the proportional division of rescue resources, for dealing with compounded disaster, and is feasible as a method for planning the mobilization of resources and to improve relief efforts against devastating tsunamis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

Numerical Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Only Active Lesser Antilles Arc Submarine Volcano: Kick 'em Jenny.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dondin, F. J. Y.; Dorville, J. F. M.; Robertson, R. E. A.

2015-12-01

The Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc has potentially been hit by prehistorical regional tsunamis generated by voluminous volcanic landslides (volume > 1 km3) among the 53 events recognized so far. No field evidence of these tsunamis are found in the vincity of the sources. Such a scenario taking place nowadays would trigger hazardous tsunami waves bearing potentially catastrophic consequences for the closest islands and regional offshore oil platforms.Here we applied a complete hazard assessment method on the only active submarine volcano of the arc Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ). KeJ is the southernmost edifice with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. From the three identified landslide episodes one is associated with a collapse volume ca. 4.4 km3. Numerical simulations considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami. An edifice current volume estimate is ca. 1.5 km3.Previous study exists in relationship to assessment of regional tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (run-up) in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. However this assessment was based on inferred volume of collapse material. We aim to firstly quantify potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA); secondly to assess first order run-ups and maximum inland inundation distance for Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, i.e. two important economic centers of the Lesser Antilles. In this framework we present for seven geomechanical models tested in the RSIA step maps of critical failure surface associated with factor of stability (Fs) for twelve sectors of 30° each; then we introduce maps of expected potential run-ups (run-up × the probability of failure at a sector) at the shoreline.The RSIA evaluates critical potential failure surface associated with Fs <1 as compared to areas of deficit/surplus of mass/volume identified on the volcanic edifice using (VolcanoFit 2

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami and introduction of two level tsunamis for tsunami disaster mitigation

PubMed Central

SATO, Shinji

2015-01-01

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami have been revealed by collaborative tsunami surveys extensively performed under the coordination of the Joint Tsunami Survey Group. The complex behaviors of the mega-tsunami were characterized by the unprecedented scale and the low occurrence frequency. The limitation and the performance of tsunami countermeasures were described on the basis of tsunami surveys, laboratory experiments and numerical analyses. These findings contributed to the introduction of two-level tsunami hazards to establish a new strategy for tsunami disaster mitigation, combining structure-based flood protection designed by the Level-1 tsunami and non-structure-based damage reduction planned by the Level-2 tsunami. PMID:26062739

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami and introduction of two level tsunamis for tsunami disaster mitigation.

PubMed

Sato, Shinji

2015-01-01

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami have been revealed by collaborative tsunami surveys extensively performed under the coordination of the Joint Tsunami Survey Group. The complex behaviors of the mega-tsunami were characterized by the unprecedented scale and the low occurrence frequency. The limitation and the performance of tsunami countermeasures were described on the basis of tsunami surveys, laboratory experiments and numerical analyses. These findings contributed to the introduction of two-level tsunami hazards to establish a new strategy for tsunami disaster mitigation, combining structure-based flood protection designed by the Level-1 tsunami and non-structure-based damage reduction planned by the Level-2 tsunami.

Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koh, Hock Lye, E-mail: kohhl@ucsiuniversity.edu.my; Teh, Su Yean, E-mail: syteh@usm.my; Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che

The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre formore » Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.« less

Impact of Near-Field, Deep-Ocean Tsunami Observations on Forecasting the 7 December 2012 Japanese Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, Eddie; Wei, Yong; Tang, Liujuan; Titov, Vasily

2014-12-01

Following the devastating 11 March 2011 tsunami, two deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART®)(DART® and the DART® logo are registered trademarks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, used with permission) stations were deployed in Japanese waters by the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Two weeks after deployment, on 7 December 2012, a M w 7.3 earthquake off Japan's Pacific coastline generated a tsunami. The tsunami was recorded at the two Japanese DARTs as early as 11 min after the earthquake origin time, which set a record as the fastest tsunami detecting time at a DART station. These data, along with those recorded at other DARTs, were used to derive a tsunami source using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami forecast system. The results of our analysis show that data provided by the two near-field Japanese DARTs can not only improve the forecast speed but also the forecast accuracy at the Japanese tide gauge stations. This study provides important guidelines for early detection and forecasting of local tsunamis.

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2016-01-01

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Development of a guideline for estimating tsunami forces On bridge superstructures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

"The Pacific Northwest is vulnerable to seismic events in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) that could generate a : large tsunami that could devastate coastal infrastructure such as bridges. In this context, this paper describes the : development of...

Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

2012-04-01

Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However

Climatic Changes and Consequences on the French West Indies (C3AF), Hurricane and Tsunami Hazards Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaud, G.; Krien, Y.; Zahibo, N.; Dudon, B.

2017-12-01

Coastal hazards are among the most worrying threats of our time. In a context of climate change coupled to a large population increase, tropical areas could be the most exposed zones of the globe. In such circumstances, understanding the underlying processes can help to better predict storm surges and the associated global risks.Here we present the partial preliminary results integrated in a multidisciplinary project focused on climatic change effects over the coastal threat in the French West Indies and funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The study aims to provide a coastal hazard assessment based on hurricane surge and tsunami modeling including several aspects of climate changes that can affect hazards such as sea level rise, crustal subsidence/uplift, coastline changes etc. Several tsunamis scenarios have been simulated including tele-tsunamis to ensure a large range of tsunami hazards. Surge level of hurricane have been calculated using a large number of synthetic hurricanes to cover the actual and forecasted climate over the tropical area of Atlantic ocean. This hazard assessment will be later coupled with stakes assessed over the territory to provide risk maps.

How prepared individuals and communities are for evacuation in tsunami-prone areas in Europe? Findings from the ASTARTE EU Programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavigne, Franck; Grancher, Delphine; Goeldner-Gianella, Lydie; Karanci, Nuray; Dogulu, Nilay; Kanoglu, Utku; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Constantin, Angela; Moldovan, Iren; El Mouraouah, Azelarab; Benchekroun, Sabah; Birouk, Abdelouahad

2016-04-01

Understanding social vulnerability to tsunamis provides risk managers with the required information to determine whether individuals have the capacity to evacuate, and therefore to take mitigation measures to protect their communities. In the frame of the EU programme ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), we conducted a questionnaire-based survey among 1,661 people from 41 nationalities living in, working in, or visiting 10 Test Sites from 9 different countries. The questions, which have been translated in 11 languages, focused on tsunami hazard awareness, risk perception, and knowledge of the existing warning systems. Our results confirm our initial hypothesis that low attention is paid in Europe to tsunami risk. Among all type of hazards, either natural or not, tsunami rank first in only one site (Lyngen fjord in Norway), rank third in 3 other sites (Eforie Nord in Romania, Nice and Istanbul), rank 4 in Gulluk Bay, 5 in Sines and Heraklion, and 10 in Siracusa (Sicily) and San Jordi (Balearic Islands). Whatever the respondent's status (i.e. local population, local authorities, or tourists), earthquakes and drawdown of the sea are cited as tsunami warning signs by 43% and 39% of the respondents, respectively. Therefore self-evacuation is not expected for more than half of the population. Considering that most European countries have no early warning system for tsunamis, a disaster is likely to happen in any coastal area exposed to this specific hazard. Furthermore, knowledge of past tsunami events is also very limited: only 22% of people stated that a tsunami has occurred in the past, whereas a deadly tsunami occurs every century in the Mediterranean Sea (e.g. in AD 365, 1660, 1672 or 1956 in the eastern part, 1908, 1979 or 2003 in the western part), and high tsunami waves devastated the Portugal and Moroccan coasts in 1755. Despite this lack of knowledge and awareness of past events, 62% of the respondents think that the site of

Quantifying human response capabilities towards tsunami threats at community level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, J.; Mück, M.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Taubenböck, H.; Strunz, G.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

besides others play a role. An attempt to quantify this variable under high uncertainty is also presented. Quantifying ET is based on a GIS modelling using a Cost Weighted Distance approach. Basic principle is to define the best evacuation path from a given point to the next safe area (shelter location). Here the fastest path from that point to the shelter location has to be found. Thereby the impact of land cover, slope, population density, population age and gender distribution are taken into account as literature studies prove these factors as highly important. Knowing the fastest path and the distance to the next safe area together with a spatially distributed pattern of evacuation speed delivers the time needed from each location to a safe area. By considering now the obtained time value for RsT the coverage area of an evacuation target point (safe area) can be assigned. Incorporating knowledge on people capacity of an evacuation target point the respective coverage area is refined. Hence areas with weak, moderate and good human response capabilities can be detected. This allows calculation of potential amount of people affected (dead or injured) and amount of people dislocated. First results for Kuta (Bali) for a worst case tsunami event deliver people affected of approx. 25 000 when RT = 0 minutes (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning to 120 000 when RT > ETA (no evacuation action until tsunami hits the land). Additionally fastest evacuation routes to the evacuation target points can be assigned. Areas with weak response capabilities can be assigned as priority areas to install e.g. additional evacuation target points or to increase tsunami knowledge and awareness to promote a faster reaction time. Especially in analyzing underlying socio-economic properties causing deficiencies in responding to a tsunami threat can lead to valuable information and direct planning of adaptation measures. Keywords: Community level, Risk and vulnerability assessment

Tsunami on Sanriku Coast in 1586: Orphan or Ghost Tsunami ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satake, K.

2017-12-01

The Peruvian earthquake on July 9, 1586 was the oldest earthquake that damaged Lima. The tsunami height was assigned as 24 m in Callao and 1-2 m in Miyagi prefecture in Japan by Soloviev and Go (1975). Dorbath et al. (1990) studied historical earthquakes in Peru and estimated that the 1586 earthquake was similar to the 1974 event (Mw 8.1) with source length of 175 km. They referred two different tsunami heights, 3. 7m and 24 m, in Callao, and judged that the latter was exaggerated. Okal et al. (2006) could not make a source model to explain both tsunami heights in Callao and Japan. More recently, Butler et al. (2017) estimated the age of coral boulders in Hawaii as AD 1572 +/- 21, speculated the tsunami source in Aleutians, and attributed it to the source of the 1586 tsunami in Japan. Historical tsunamis, both near-field and far-field, have been documented along the Sanriku coast since 1586 (e.g., Watanabe, 1998). However, there is no written document for the 1586 tsunami (Tsuji et al., 2013). Ninomiya (1960) compiled the historical tsunami records on the Sanriku coast soon after the 1960 Chilean tsunami, and correlated the legend of tsunami in Tokura with the 1586 Peruvian earthquake, although he noted that the dates were different. About the legend, he referred to Kunitomi(1933) who compiled historical tsunami data after the 1933 Showa Sanriku tsunami. Kunitomi referred to "Tsunami history of Miyagi prefecture" published after the 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunami. "Tsunami history" described the earthquake and tsunami damage of Tensho earthquake on January 18 (Gregorian),1586 in central Japan, and correlated the tsunami legend in Tokura on June 30, 1586 (G). Following the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, tsunami legend in Tokura was studied again (Ebina, 2015). A local person published a story he heard from his grandfather that many small valleys were named following the 1611 tsunami, which inundated further inland than the 2011 tsunami. Ebina (2015), based on historical documents

The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: Promoting Earthquake and Tsunami Resilience on California's North Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L. A.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

2014-12-01

In historic times, Northern California has suffered the greatest losses from tsunamis in the U.S. contiguous 48 states. 39 tsunamis have been recorded in the region since 1933, including five that caused damage. This paper describes the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization formed in 1996 to address the tsunami threat from both near and far sources. It includes representatives from government agencies, public, private and volunteer organizations, academic institutions, and individuals interested in working to reduce tsunami risk. The geographic isolation and absence of scientific agencies such as the USGS and CGS in the region, and relatively frequent occurrence of both earthquakes and tsunami events has created a unique role for the RCTWG, with activities ranging from basic research to policy and education and outreach programs. Regional interest in tsunami issues began in the early 1990s when there was relatively little interest in tsunamis elsewhere in the state. As a result, the group pioneered tsunami messaging and outreach programs. Beginning in 2008, the RCTWG has partnered with the National Weather Service and the California Office of Emergency Services in conducting the annual "live code" tsunami communications tests, the only area outside of Alaska to do so. In 2009, the RCTWG joined with the Southern California Earthquake Alliance and the Bay Area Earthquake Alliance to form the Earthquake Country Alliance to promote a coordinated and consistent approach to both earthquake and tsunami preparedness throughout the state. The RCTWG has produced and promoted a variety of preparedness projects including hazard mapping and sign placement, an annual "Earthquake - Tsunami Room" at County Fairs, public service announcements and print material, assisting in TsunamiReady community recognition, and facilitating numerous multi-agency, multidiscipline coordinated exercises, and community evacuation drills. Nine assessment surveys from 1993 to 2013

Modeling Extra-Long Tsunami Propagation: Assessing Data, Model Accuracy and Forecast Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V. V.; Moore, C. W.; Rabinovich, A.

2017-12-01

Detecting and modeling tsunamis propagating tens of thousands of kilometers from the source is a formidable scientific challenge and seemingly satisfies only scientific curiosity. However, results of such analyses produce a valuable insight into the tsunami propagation dynamics, model accuracy and would provide important implications for tsunami forecast. The Mw = 9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that devastated Indian Ocean coastlines and spread into the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The tsunami was recorded by a great number of coastal tide gauges, including those located in 15-25 thousand kilometers from the source area. To date, it is still the farthest instrumentally detected tsunami. The data from these instruments throughout the world oceans enabled to estimate various statistical parameters and energy decay of this event. High-resolution records of this tsunami from DARTs 32401 (offshore of northern Chile), 46405 and NeMO (both offshore of the US West Coast), combined with the mainland tide gauge measurements enabled us to examine far-field characteristics of the 2004 in the Pacific Ocean and to compare the results of global numerical simulations with the observations. Despite their small heights (less than 2 cm at deep-ocean locations), the records demonstrated consistent spatial and temporal structure. The numerical model described well the frequency content, amplitudes and general structure of the observed waves at deep-ocean and coastal gages. We present analysis of the measurements and comparison with model data to discuss implication for tsunami forecast accuracy. Model study for such extreme distances from the tsunami source and at extra-long times after the event is an attempt to find accuracy bounds for tsunami models and accuracy limitations of model use for forecast. We discuss results in application to tsunami model forecast and tsunami modeling in general.

Mountain torrents: Quantifying vulnerability and assessing uncertainties

PubMed Central

Totschnig, Reinhold; Fuchs, Sven

2013-01-01

Vulnerability assessment for elements at risk is an important component in the framework of risk assessment. The vulnerability of buildings affected by torrent processes can be quantified by vulnerability functions that express a mathematical relationship between the degree of loss of individual elements at risk and the intensity of the impacting process. Based on data from the Austrian Alps, we extended a vulnerability curve for residential buildings affected by fluvial sediment transport processes to other torrent processes and other building types. With respect to this goal to merge different data based on different processes and building types, several statistical tests were conducted. The calculation of vulnerability functions was based on a nonlinear regression approach applying cumulative distribution functions. The results suggest that there is no need to distinguish between different sediment-laden torrent processes when assessing vulnerability of residential buildings towards torrent processes. The final vulnerability functions were further validated with data from the Italian Alps and different vulnerability functions presented in the literature. This comparison showed the wider applicability of the derived vulnerability functions. The uncertainty inherent to regression functions was quantified by the calculation of confidence bands. The derived vulnerability functions may be applied within the framework of risk management for mountain hazards within the European Alps. The method is transferable to other mountain regions if the input data needed are available. PMID:27087696

Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

2012-04-01

This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework, Third Edition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework (the Framework), third edition, is a manual to help transportation agencies and their partners assess the vulnerability of transportation infrastructu...

Remote Sensing Data for Coastal Zone Vulnerability Assessment- the Bay of Algiers Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabehi, Walid; Guerfi, Mokhtar; Mahi, Habib

2016-08-01

Like many of South Mediterranean coastlines, the Algerian coastal zone and Algiers' bay specifically, is one of the most vulnerable zone. Because of the natural pressures occurring in the region such as earthquake, tsunami risk, erosion / accretion, marine intrusion, etc. Combined with other anthropogenic factors as urban sprawl, pollution, loss of biodiversity and economic value etc... A high degradation of this coastline is noticeable despite all the protection measures brought to these zones, which have sometimes increased its vulnerability.The aim of this work is to generate the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) map related to erosion and flooding. This index, created by Gornitz & White (1990), was particularly focused on "physical parameters of the coast" [3], Then it was improved by McLaughlin & Cooper (2010), who added a socio-economical approach by calculating parameters like demography, land use...etc. The index is obtained by integrating in a GIS, different vulnerability factors of the coastal area.. Many relevant parameters were derived from remote sensing, combined with other data; they are analyzed with a Multicriteria method after being grouped in three sub- indexes; coastal physical characteristics, coastal forcing and socioeconomic factors, in order to produce the CVI.

77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA... conducting vulnerability assessments became available and usage of the TMSARM has dropped off considerably...

Tsunami-HySEA model validation for tsunami current predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macías, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; González-Vida, José Manuel; Ortega, Sergio

2016-04-01

Model ability to compute and predict tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be produced by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave height is small. Besides, an accurate simulation of tsunami flow velocities and accelerations is fundamental for advancing in the study of tsunami sediment transport. These considerations made the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) proposing a benchmark exercise focussed on modeling and simulating tsunami currents. Until recently, few direct measurements of tsunami velocities were available to compare and to validate model results. After Tohoku 2011 many current meters measurement were made, mainly in harbors and channels. In this work we present a part of the contribution made by the EDANYA group from the University of Malaga to the NTHMP workshop organized at Portland (USA), 9-10 of February 2015. We have selected three out of the five proposed benchmark problems. Two of them consist in real observed data from the Tohoku 2011 event, one at Hilo Habour (Hawaii) and the other at Tauranga Bay (New Zealand). The third one consists in laboratory experimental data for the inundation of Seaside City in Oregon. Acknowledgements: This research has been partially supported by the Junta de Andalucía research project TESELA (P11-RNM7069) and the Spanish Government Research project DAIFLUID (MTM2012-38383-C02-01) and Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Excelencia Andalucía TECH. The GPU and multi-GPU computations were performed at the Unit of Numerical Methods (UNM) of the Research Support Central Services (SCAI) of the University of Malaga.

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.

2014-01-01

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.

Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

2017-03-01

Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

From tsunami hazard assessment to risk management in Guadeloupe (F.W.I.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahibo, Narcisse; Dudon, Bernard; Krien, Yann; Arnaud, Gaël; Mercado, Aurelio; Roger, Jean

2017-04-01

The Caribbean region is prone to numerous natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, coastal erosion or hurricanes. All these threats may cause great human and economic losses and are thus of prime interest for applied research. One of the main challenges for the scientific community is to conduct state-of-the-art research to assess hazards and share the results with coastal planners and decision makers so that they can regulate land use and develop mitigation strategies. We present here the results of a scientific collaborative project between Guadeloupe and Porto Rico which aimed at bringing a decision-making support to the authorities regarding tsunami hazards. This project led us to build a database of potential extreme events, and to study their impacts on Guadeloupe to investigate storm surge and tsunami hazards. The results were used by local authorities to develop safeguarding and mitigation measures in coastal areas. This project is thus a good example to demonstrate the benefit of inter Caribbean scientific collaboration for natural risks management.

Tsunami Hockey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.

2013-12-01

An important issue that vexes tsunami warning centers (TWCs) is when to cancel a tsunami warning once it is in effect. Emergency managers often face a variety of pressures to allow the public to resume their normal activities, but allowing coastal populations to return too quickly can put them at risk. A TWC must, therefore, exercise caution when cancelling a warning. Kim and Whitmore (2013) show that in many cases a TWC can use the decay of tsunami oscillations in a harbor to forecast when its amplitudes will fall to safe levels. This technique should prove reasonably robust for local tsunamis (those that are potentially dangerous within only 100 km of their source region) and for regional tsunamis (whose danger is limited to within 1000km of the source region) as well. For ocean-crossing destructive tsunamis such as the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami, however, this technique may be inadequate. When a tsunami propagates across the ocean basin, it will encounter topographic obstacles such as seamount chains or coastlines, resulting in coherent reflections that can propagate great distances. When these reflections reach previously-impacted coastlines, they can recharge decaying tsunami oscillations and make them hazardous again. Warning center scientists should forecast sea-level records for 24 hours beyond the initial tsunami arrival in order to observe any potential reflections that may pose a hazard. Animations are a convenient way to visualize reflections and gain a broad geographic overview of their impacts. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has developed tools based on tsunami simulations using the RIFT tsunami forecast model. RIFT is a linear, parallelized numerical tsunami propagation model that runs very efficiently on a multi-CPU system (Wang et al, 2012). It can simulate 30-hours of tsunami wave propagation in the Pacific Ocean at 4 arc minute resolution in approximately 6 minutes of real time on a 12-CPU system. Constructing a 30-hour animation using 1

Tsunami Detection Systems for International Requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawson, R. A.

2007-12-01

Results are presented regarding the first commercially available, fully operational, tsunami detection system to have passed stringent U.S. government testing requirements and to have successfully demonstrated its ability to detect an actual tsunami at sea. Spurred by the devastation of the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami that killed more than 230,000 people, the private sector actively supported the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's (IOC"s) efforts to develop a tsunami warning system and mitigation plan for the Indian Ocean region. As each country in the region developed its requirements, SAIC recognized that many of these underdeveloped countries would need significant technical assistance to fully execute their plans. With the original focus on data fusion, consequence assessment tools, and warning center architecture, it was quickly realized that the cornerstone of any tsunami warning system would be reliable tsunami detection buoys that could meet very stringent operational standards. Our goal was to leverage extensive experience in underwater surveillance and oceanographic sensing to produce an enhanced and reliable deep water sensor that could meet emerging international requirements. Like the NOAA Deep-ocean Assessment and Recording of Tsunamis (DART TM ) buoy, the SAIC Tsunami Buoy (STB) system consists of three subsystems: a surfaccommunications buoy subsystem, a bottom pressure recorder subsystem, and a buoy mooring subsystem. With the operational success that DART has demonstrated, SAIC decided to build and test to the same high standards. The tsunami detection buoy system measures small changes in the depth of the deep ocean caused by tsunami waves as they propagate past the sensor. This is accomplished by using an extremely sensitive bottom pressure sensor/recorder to measure very small changes in pressure as the waves move past the buoy system. The bottom pressure recorder component includes a processor with algorithms that

Tsunami hazard assessment at Port Alberni, BC, Canada: preliminary model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grilli, S. T.; Insua, T. L.; Grilli, A. R.; Douglas, K. L.; Shelby, M. R.; Wang, K.; Gao, D.

2016-12-01

Located in the heart of Vancouver Island, BC, Port Alberni has a well-known history of tsunamis. Many of the Nuu-Chah-Nulth First Nations share oral stories about a strong fight between a thunderbird and a whale that caused big waves in a winter night, a story that is compatible with the recently recognized great Cascadia tsunami in January, 1700. Port Alberni, with a total population of approximately 20,000 people, lies beside the Somass River, at the very end of Barkley Sound Inlet. The narrow canal connecting this town to the Pacific Ocean runs for more than 64 km ( 40 miles) between steep mountains, providing an ideal setting for the amplification of tsunami waves through funnelling effects. The devastating effects of tsunamis are still fresh in residents' memories from the impact of the 1964 Alaska tsunami that caused serious damage to the city. In June 2016, Emergency Management BC ran a coastal exercise in Port Alberni, simulating the response to an earthquake and a tsunami. During three days, the emergency teams in the City of Port Alberni practiced and learned from the experience. Ocean Networks Canada contributed to this exercise with the development of preliminary simulations of tsunami impact on the city from a buried rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, including the Explorer segment. Wave propagation was simulated with the long-wave model FUNWAVE-TVD. Preliminary results indicate a strong amplification of tsunami waves in the Port Alberni area. The inundation zone in Port Alberni had a footprint similar to that of the 1700 Cascadia and 1964 Alaska tsunamis, inundating the area surrounding the Somass river and preferentially following the Kitsuksis and Roger Creek river margins into the city. Several other tsunami source scenarios, including splay faulting and trench-breaching ruptures are currently being modeled for the city of Port Alberni following a similar approach. These results will be presented at the conference.

Tsunami Risk Management in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs): Some Issues, Challenges and Ways Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, Dale; Goff, James

2013-09-01

The Pacific is well known for producing tsunamis, and events such as the 2011 Tōhoku-oki, Japan disaster demonstrate the vulnerability of coastal communities. We review what is known about the current state of tsunami risk management for Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), identify the issues and challenges associated with affecting meaningful tsunami disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts and outline strategies and possible ways forward. Small island states are scattered across the vast Pacific region and these states have to varying degrees been affected by not only large tsunamis originating in circum-Pacific subduction zones, but also more regionally devastating events. Having outlined and described what is meant by the risk management process, the various problems associated with our current understanding of this process are examined. The poorly understood hazard related to local, regional and distant sources is investigated and the dominant focus on seismic events at the expense of other tsunami source types is noted. We reflect on the challenges of undertaking numerical modelling from generation to inundation and specifically detail the problems as they relate to PICTs. This is followed by an exploration of the challenges associated with mapping exposure and estimating vulnerability in low-lying coastal areas. The latter part of the paper is devoted to exploring what mitigation of the tsunami risk can look like and draw upon good practice cases as exemplars of the actions that can be taken from the local to regional level. Importantly, given the diversity of PICTs, no one approach will suit all places. The paper closes by making a series of recommendations to assist PICTs and the wider tsunami research community in thinking through improvements to their tsunami risk management processes and the research that can underpin these efforts.

When is a Tsunami a Mega-Tsunami?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chague-Goff, C.; Goff, J. R.; Terry, J. P.; Goto, K.

2014-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami is commonly called a mega-tsunami, and this attribute has also been linked to the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. However, since this term was first coined in the early 1990's there have been very few attempts to define it. As such it has been applied in a rather arbitrary fashion to a number of tsunami characteristics, such as wave height or amplitude at both the source and at distant locations, run-up height, geographical extent and impact. The first use of the term is related to a tsunami generated by a large bolide impact and indeed it seems entirely appropriate that the term should be used for such rare events on geological timescales. However, probably as a result of media-driven hyperbole, scientists have used this term at least twice in the last decade, which is hardly a significant portion of the geological timescale. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that these recent unexpectedly large events do not fall in the category of mega-tsunami but into a category of exceptional events within historical experience and local perspective. The use of the term mega-tsunami over the past 14 years is discussed and a definition is provided that marks the relative uniqueness of these events and a new term, appropriately Japanese in origin, namely that of souteigai-tsunami, is proposed. Examples of these tsunamis will be provided.

Numerical tsunami hazard assessment of the submarine volcano Kick 'em Jenny in high resolution are

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dondin, Frédéric; Dorville, Jean-Francois Marc; Robertson, Richard E. A.

2016-04-01

Landslide-generated tsunami are infrequent phenomena that can be potentially highly hazardous for population located in the near-field domain of the source. The Lesser Antilles volcanic arc is a curved 800 km chain of volcanic islands. At least 53 flank collapse episodes have been recognized along the arc. Several of these collapses have been associated with underwater voluminous deposits (volume > 1 km3). Due to their momentum these events were likely capable of generating regional tsunami. However no clear field evidence of tsunami associated with these voluminous events have been reported but the occurrence of such an episode nowadays would certainly have catastrophic consequences. Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ) is the only active submarine volcano of the Lesser Antilles Arc (LAA), with a current edifice volume estimated to 1.5 km3. It is the southernmost edifice of the LAA with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. The volcano appears to have undergone three episodes of flank failure. Numerical simulations of one of these episodes associated with a collapse volume of ca. 4.4 km3 and considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami with amplitude of 30 m. In the present study we applied a detailed hazard assessment on KeJ submarine volcano (KeJ) form its collapse to its waves impact on high resolution coastal area of selected island of the LAA in order to highlight needs to improve alert system and risk mitigation. We present the assessment process of tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (i.e. run-up) and flood dynamic (i.e. duration, height, speed...) at the coast of LAA island in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. After quantification of potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA, VolcanoFit 2.0 & SSAP 4.5) based on seven geomechanical models, the tsunami source have been simulate by St-Venant equations-based code

Tsunami in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, Evgueni; Medvedev, Igor; Ivaschenko, Alexey

2017-04-01

The severity of the climate and sparsely populated coastal regions are the reason why the Russian part of the Arctic Ocean belongs to the least studied areas of the World Ocean. In the same time intensive economic development of the Arctic region, specifically oil and gas industry, require studies of potential thread natural disasters that can cause environmental and technical damage of the coastal and maritime infrastructure of energy industry complex (FEC). Despite the fact that the seismic activity in the Arctic can be attributed to a moderate level, we cannot exclude the occurrence of destructive tsunami waves, directly threatening the FEC. According to the IAEA requirements, in the construction of nuclear power plants it is necessary to take into account the impact of all natural disasters with frequency more than 10-5 per year. Planned accommodation in the polar regions of the Russian floating nuclear power plants certainly requires an adequate risk assessment of the tsunami hazard in the areas of their location. Develop the concept of tsunami hazard assessment would be based on the numerical simulation of different scenarios in which reproduced the hypothetical seismic sources and generated tsunamis. The analysis of available geological, geophysical and seismological data for the period of instrumental observations (1918-2015) shows that the highest earthquake potential within the Arctic region is associated with the underwater Mid-Arctic zone of ocean bottom spreading (interplate boundary between Eurasia and North American plates) as well as with some areas of continental slope within the marginal seas. For the Arctic coast of Russia and the adjacent shelf area, the greatest tsunami danger of seismotectonic origin comes from the earthquakes occurring in the underwater Gakkel Ridge zone, the north-eastern part of the Mid-Arctic zone. In this area, one may expect earthquakes of magnitude Mw ˜ 6.5-7.0 at a rate of 10-2 per year and of magnitude Mw ˜ 7.5 at a

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards on the Open-Ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca Coasts of Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Soulard, Christopher

2008-01-01

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington. Although potential tsunami-inundation zones from a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake have been delineated, the amount and type of human development in tsunami-prone areas have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to document variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to CSZ-related tsunami-inundation zones among communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington (including Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Pacific Counties). The tsunami-inundation zone in these counties contains 42,972 residents (24 percent of the total study-area population), 24,934 employees (33 percent of the total labor force), and 17,029 daily visitors to coastal Washington State Parks. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 2,908 businesses that generate $4.6 billion in annual sales volume (31 and 40 percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $4.5 billion (25 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, schools and child-day-care centers), public venues (for example, religious organizations), and critical facilities (for example, police stations and public-work facilities). Racial diversity of residents in tsunami-prone areas is low?89 percent of residents are White and 8 percent are American Indian or Alaska Native. Nineteen percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 30 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 35 percent of the households are renter occupied. Employees in the tsunami

Numerical study of tsunami generated by multiple submarine slope failures in Resurrection Bay, Alaska, during the MW 9.2 1964 earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suleimani, E.; Hansen, R.; Haeussler, Peter J.

2009-01-01

We use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the MW 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m3. Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation. ?? Birkh??user Verlag, Basel 2009.

High resolution tsunami modelling for the evaluation of potential risk areas in Setúbal (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, J.; Silva, A.; Leitão, P.

2011-08-01

The use of high resolution hydrodynamic modelling to simulate the potential effects of tsunami events can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas. Moreover, the consideration of complementary data such as the type of buildings, location of priority equipment, type of roads, enables mapping of the most vulnerable zones, computing of the expected damage on man-made structures, constrain of the definition of rescue areas and escape routes, adaptation of emergency plans and proper evaluation of the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipment. Such an approach was used to evaluate the specific risks associated with a potential occurrence of a tsunami event in the region of Setúbal (Portugal), which was one of the areas most seriously affected by the 1755 tsunami. In order to perform an evaluation of the hazard associated with the occurrence of a similar event, high resolution wave propagation simulations were performed considering different potential earthquake sources with different magnitudes. Based on these simulations, detailed inundation maps associated with the different events were produced. These results were combined with the available information on the vulnerability of the local infrastructures (building types, roads and streets characteristics, priority buildings) in order to impose restrictions in the production of high-scale potential damage maps, escape routes and emergency routes maps.

Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) Mw 6.6 earthquake and tsunami of 20 July 2017: a test for the Mediterranean tsunami warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Necmioglu, Ocal; Ishibe, Takeo; Yalciner, Ahmet C.

2017-12-01

Various Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) within the Mediterranean Basin supply tsunami warnings including CAT-INGV (Italy), KOERI-RETMC (Turkey), and NOA/HL-NTWC (Greece). The 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) earthquake (Mw 6.6) and tsunami provided an opportunity to assess the response from these TSPs. Although the Bodrum-Kos tsunami was moderate (e.g., runup of 1.9 m) with little damage to properties, it was the first noticeable tsunami in the Mediterranean Basin since the 21 May 2003 western Mediterranean tsunami. Tsunami waveform analysis revealed that the trough-to-crest height was 34.1 cm at the near-field tide gauge station of Bodrum (Turkey). Tsunami period band was 2-30 min with peak periods at 7-13 min. We proposed a source fault model for this tsunami with the length and width of 25 and 15 km and uniform slip of 0.4 m. Tsunami simulations using both nodal planes produced almost same results in terms of agreement between tsunami observations and simulations. Different TSPs provided tsunami warnings at 10 min (CAT-INGV), 19 min (KOERI-RETMC), and 18 min (NOA/HL-NTWC) after the earthquake origin time. Apart from CAT-INGV, whose initial Mw estimation differed 0.2 units with respect to the final value, the response from the other two TSPs came relatively late compared to the desired warning time of 10 min, given the difficulties for timely and accurate calculation of earthquake magnitude and tsunami impact assessment. It is argued that even if a warning time of 10 min was achieved, it might not have been sufficient for addressing near-field tsunami hazards. Despite considerable progress and achievements made within the upstream components of NEAMTWS (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected seas Tsunami Warning System), the experience from this moderate tsunami may highlight the need for improving operational capabilities of TSPs, but more importantly for effectively integrating civil protection authorities into NEAMTWS and strengthening

Evaluation of the Relationship Between Coral Damage and Tsunami Dynamics; Case Study: 2009 Samoa Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilmen, Derya I.; Titov, Vasily V.; Roe, Gerard H.

2015-12-01

On September 29, 2009, an Mw = 8.1 earthquake at 17:48 UTC in Tonga Trench generated a tsunami that caused heavy damage across Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga islands. Tutuila island, which is located 250 km from the earthquake epicenter, experienced tsunami flooding and strong currents on the north and east coasts, causing 34 fatalities (out of 192 total deaths from this tsunami) and widespread structural and ecological damage. The surrounding coral reefs also suffered heavy damage. The damage was formally evaluated based on detailed surveys before and immediately after the tsunami. This setting thus provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the relationship between tsunami dynamics and coral damage. In this study, estimates of the maximum wave amplitudes and coastal inundation of the tsunami are obtained with the MOST model (T itov and S ynolakis, J. Waterway Port Coast Ocean Eng: pp 171, 1998; T itov and G onzalez, NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL PMEL 112:11, 1997), which is now the operational tsunami forecast tool used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The earthquake source function was constrained using the real-time deep-ocean tsunami data from three DART® (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting for Tsunamis) systems in the far field, and by tide-gauge observations in the near field. We compare the simulated run-up with observations to evaluate the simulation performance. We present an overall synthesis of the tide-gauge data, survey results of the run-up, inundation measurements, and the datasets of coral damage around the island. These data are used to assess the overall accuracy of the model run-up prediction for Tutuila, and to evaluate the model accuracy over the coral reef environment during the tsunami event. Our primary findings are that: (1) MOST-simulated run-up correlates well with observed run-up for this event ( r = 0.8), it tends to underestimated amplitudes over coral reef environment around Tutuila (for 15 of 31 villages, run

A new approach to UNESCO-IOC Post-Tsunami Field Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, L. S.; Steffen, J.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Biukoto, L.; Titimaea, A.; Thaman, R.; Vaa, R.

2009-12-01

The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST-Samoa, Oct 14-23, 2009), and the Report presented to the Government of Samoa (GoS) immediately upon conclusion, was an unprecedented science effort, setting a benchmark for future coordinated international post-tsunami science surveys that will support national early recovery efforts, and through tsunami research, improve tsunami mitigation and preparedness and so build a stronger resilience of coastal communities. By working together, we achieved outcomes much stronger and more valuable than any one of us could produce alone. For the first time, strong principles of professional conduct, mutual respect, collaboration, partnership, and concern for the welfare of the affected communities, were explictly embeded in the work plan. The 29 September 2009 regional tsunami resulted in loss of life and damage to human infrastructure and environmental systems. Common to many tsunamis, international scientists expressed the intent to undertake science assessments. Traditionally, these surveys, sometimes under UNESCO-IOC auspices, have been single-discipline, and conducted individually with moderate government coordination, so that afterward, the country was left with a large integration task to produce a single coherent study. This changed in Samoa, where an integrated and coordinated approach emerged. The ITST-Samoa was comprised of more than 60 scientists (seismologists, geologists, engineers, social scientists, modellers) from Australia, Fiji, French-Polynesia, Italy, Japan, New Zealand and USA who volunteered to work in collaboration with the GoS, Samoa Red Cross Society, Samoa scientists, and non-government representatives. They worked as one survey team to collect data and assist the GoS to prioritise short- and long-term risk reduction strategies. Their novel work (1) partnered with a regional university to include South Pacific expertise and with the GoS to ensure that (a) international scientists worked in a culturally

Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.

2016-12-01

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of

VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-08-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Tsunami Data and Scientific Data Diplomacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcos, N. P.; Dunbar, P. K.; Gusiakov, V. K.; Kong, L. S. L.; Aliaga, B.; Yamamoto, M.; Stroker, K. J.

2016-12-01

Free and open access to data and information fosters scientific progress and can build bridges between nations even when political relationships are strained. Data and information held by one stakeholder may be vital for promoting research of another. As an emerging field of inquiry, data diplomacy explores how data-sharing helps create and support positive relationships between countries to enable the use of data for societal and humanitarian benefit. Tsunami has arguably been the only natural hazard that has been addressed so effectively at an international scale and illustrates the success of scientific data diplomacy. Tsunami mitigation requires international scientific cooperation in both tsunami science and technology development. This requires not only international agreements, but working-level relationships between scientists from countries that may have different political and economic policies. For example, following the Pacific wide tsunami of 1960 that killed two thousand people in Chile and then, up to a day later, hundreds in Hawaii, Japan, and the Philippines; delegates from twelve countries met to discuss and draft the requirements for an international tsunami warning system. The Pacific Tsunami Warning System led to the development of local, regional, and global tsunami databases and catalogs. For example, scientists at NOAA/NCEI and the Tsunami Laboratory/Russian Academy of Sciences have collaborated on their tsunami catalogs that are now routinely accessed by scientists and the public around the world. These data support decision-making during tsunami events, are used in developing inundation and evacuation maps, and hazard assessments. This presentation will include additional examples of agreements for data-sharing between countries, as well as challenges in standardization and consistency among the tsunami research community. Tsunami data and scientific data diplomacy have ultimately improved understanding of tsunami and associated impacts.

Landslide-Generated Tsunami Model for Quick Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, M.; Rudaz, B.; Locat, J.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Podladchikov, Y.

2015-12-01

Alpine regions are likely to be areas at risk regarding to landslide-induced tsunamis, because of the proximity between lakes and potential instabilities and due to the concentration of the population in valleys and on the lakes shores. In particular, dam lakes are often surrounded by steep slopes and frequently affect the stability of the banks. In order to assess comprehensively this phenomenon together with the induced risks, we have developed a 2.5D numerical model which aims to simulate the propagation of the landslide, the generation and the propagation of the wave and eventually the spread on the shores or the associated downstream flow. To perform this task, the process is done in three steps. Firstly, the geometry of the sliding mass is constructed using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) concept. Secondly, the propagation of this volume is performed using a model based on viscous flow equations. Finally, the wave generation and its propagation are simulated using the shallow water equations stabilized by the Lax-Friedrichs scheme. The transition between wet and dry bed is performed by the combination of the two latter sets of equations. The proper behavior of our model is demonstrated by; (1) numerical tests from Toro (2001), and (2) by comparison with a real event where the horizontal run-up distance is known (Nicolet landslide, Quebec, Canada). The model is of particular interest due to its ability to perform quickly the 2.5D geometric model of the landslide, the tsunami simulation and, consequently, the hazard assessment.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Makran considering recently suggested larger maximum magnitudes and sensitivity analysis for GNSS-based early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamora, N.; Hoechner, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.

2014-12-01

Iran and Pakistan are countries frequently affected by destructive earthquakes, as for instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30 000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, nevertheless a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss the possiblity of rather rare huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We analyze the seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 100000 years. All the events are projected onto the plate interface using scaling relations and a tsunami model is run for every scenario. The tsunami hazard along the coast is computed and presented in the form of annual probability of exceedance, probabilistic tsunami height for different time periods and other measures. We show how the hazard reacts to variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and maximum magnitudes.We model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by using an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast by applying it to the 1945 event and by performing a sensitivity analysis.

Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

2011-11-01

Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated

New Tsunami Forecast Tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, Joël; Reymond, Dominique

2015-03-01

This paper presents the tsunami warning tools, which are used for the estimation of the seismic source parameters. These tools are grouped under a method called Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism_2 ( PDFM2), that has been developed at the French Polynesia Warning Center, in the framework of the system, as a plug-in concept. The first tool determines the seismic moment and the focal geometry (strike, dip, and slip), and the second tool identifies the "tsunami earthquakes" (earthquakes that cause much bigger tsunamis than their magnitude would imply). In a tsunami warning operation, initial assessment of the tsunami potential is based on location and magnitude. The usual quick magnitude methods which use waves, work fine for smaller earthquakes. For major earthquakes these methods drastically underestimate the magnitude and its tsunami potential because the radiated energy shifts to the longer period waves. Since French Polynesia is located far away from the subduction zones of the Pacific rim, the tsunami threat is not imminent, and this luxury of time allows to use the long period surface wave data to determine the true size of a major earthquake. The source inversion method presented in this paper uses a combination of surface waves amplitude spectra and P wave first motions. The advantage of using long period surface data is that there is a much more accurate determination of earthquake size, and the advantage of using P wave first motion is to have a better constrain of the focal geometry than using the surface waves alone. The method routinely gives stable results at minutes, with being the origin time of an earthquake. Our results are then compared to the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog for validating both the seismic moment and the source geometry. The second tool discussed in this paper is the slowness parameter and is the energy-to-moment ratio. It has been used to identify tsunami earthquakes, which are characterized by having unusual slow

Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

2015-08-01

In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

Optimization of the Number and Location of Tsunami Stations in a Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Liu, P. L. F.; Pritchard, M. E.

2014-12-01

Optimizing the number and location of tsunami stations in designing a tsunami warning system is an important and practical problem. It is always desirable to maximize the capability of the data obtained from the stations for constraining the earthquake source parameters, and to minimize the number of stations at the same time. During the 2011 Tohoku tsunami event, 28 coastal gauges and DART buoys in the near-field recorded tsunami waves, providing an opportunity for assessing the effectiveness of those stations in identifying the earthquake source parameters. Assuming a single-plane fault geometry, inversions of tsunami data from combinations of various number (1~28) of stations and locations are conducted and evaluated their effectiveness according to the residues of the inverse method. Results show that the optimized locations of stations depend on the number of stations used. If the stations are optimally located, 2~4 stations are sufficient to constrain the source parameters. Regarding the optimized location, stations must be uniformly spread in all directions, which is not surprising. It is also found that stations within the source region generally give worse constraint of earthquake source than stations farther from source, which is due to the exaggeration of model error in matching large amplitude waves at near-source stations. Quantitative discussions on these findings will be given in the presentation. Applying similar analysis to the Manila Trench based on artificial scenarios of earthquakes and tsunamis, the optimal location of tsunami stations are obtained, which provides guidance of deploying a tsunami warning system in this region.

Community exposure to tsunami hazards in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff

2013-01-01

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic

The 2017 México Tsunami Record, Numerical Modeling and Threat Assessment in Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia

2018-03-01

An M w 8.2 earthquake and tsunami occurred offshore the Pacific coast of México on 2017-09-08, at 04:49 UTC. Costa Rican tide gauges have registered a total of 21 local, regional and far-field tsunamis. The Quepos gauge registered 12 tsunamis between 1960 and 2014 before it was relocated inside a harbor by late 2014, where it registered two more tsunamis. This paper analyzes the 2017 México tsunami as recorded by the Quepos gauge. It took 2 h for the tsunami to arrive to Quepos, with a first peak height of 9.35 cm and a maximum amplitude of 18.8 cm occurring about 6 h later. As a decision support tool, this tsunami was modeled for Quepos in real time using ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami) with the finer grid having a resolution of 1 arcsec ( 30 m). However, the model did not replicate the tsunami record well, probably due to the lack of a finer and more accurate bathymetry. In 2014, the National Tsunami Monitoring System of Costa Rica (SINAMOT) was created, acting as a national tsunami warning center. The occurrence of the 2017 México tsunami raised concerns about warning dissemination mechanisms for most coastal communities in Costa Rica, due to its short travel time.

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

Tsunami Casualty Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, H.

2007-12-01

More than 4500 deaths by tsunamis were recorded in the decade of 1990. For example, the 1992 Flores Tsunami in Indonesia took away at least 1712 lives, and more than 2182 people were victimized by the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Such staggering death toll has been totally overshadowed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed more than 220,000 lives. Unlike hurricanes that are often evaluated by economic losses, death count is the primary measure for tsunami hazard. It is partly because tsunamis kill more people owing to its short lead- time for warning. Although exact death tallies are not available for most of the tsunami events, there exist gender and age discriminations in tsunami casualties. Significant gender difference in the victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was attributed to women's social norms and role behavior, as well as cultural bias toward women's inability to swim. Here we develop a rational casualty model based on humans' limit to withstand the tsunami flows. The application to simple tsunami runup cases demonstrates that biological and physiological disadvantages also make a significant difference in casualty rate. It further demonstrates that the gender and age discriminations in casualties become most pronounced when tsunami is marginally strong and the difference tends to diminish as tsunami strength increases.

Topographic data acquisition in tsunami-prone coastal area using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marfai, M. A.; Sunarto; Khakim, N.; Cahyadi, A.; Rosaji, F. S. C.; Fatchurohman, H.; Wibowo, Y. A.

2018-04-01

The southern coastal area of Java Island is one of the nine seismic gaps prone to tsunamis. The entire coastline in one of the regencies, Gunungkidul, is exposed to the subduction zone in the Indian Ocean. Also, the growing tourism industries in the regency increase its vulnerability, which places most of its areas at high risk of tsunamis. The same case applies to Kukup, i.e., one of the most well-known beaches in Gunungkidul. Structurally shaped cliffs that surround it experience intensive wave erosion process, but it has very minimum access for evacuation routes. Since tsunami modeling is a very advanced analysis, it requires an accurate topographic data. Therefore, the research aimed to generate the topographic data of Kukup Beach as the baseline in tsunami risk reduction analysis and disaster management. It used aerial photograph data, which was acquired using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The results showed that the aerial photographs captured by drone had accurate elevation and spatial resolution. Therefore, they are applicable for tsunami modeling and disaster management.

CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Mungov, G.; Sweeney, A.; Arcos, N. P.

2017-12-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 Mw earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.

Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; Stroker, Kelly; Arcos, Nicolas

2017-08-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 M w earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 coastal tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height for each tide gauge and

Tsunami Disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention in West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, H.; Harris, R. A.; Horns, D. M.; Yulianto, E.; Bunds, M. P.; Prasetyadi, C.; Emmett, C.; Hall, S.

2016-12-01

Java Island, Indonesia is the most populated area and one of the most tectonically active coastal nations on Earth. This island is the volcanic arc and accretionary wedge of the subduction zone of the Sunda and the Australia plate, where the Java Trench is located. However, the Java Trench hasn't had a mega or giant earthquake for at least 430 years according to historical records. Up to 30 m of slip may have accumulated on the subduction zone interface during this time, which is enough to produce a Mw 9.0 earthquake and large tsunami. One of the largest seismic gaps along the Sunda Arc is a 640 km section of the coast of west Java. The largest population center in this region is Pelabuhan Ratu, with is partially built on ridge and swale coastal plain topography. Candidate tsunami deposits were found in swales that may indicate inundation up to 1 km inland. Numerical modeling of various possible tsunami scenarios indicate that the configuration of the coastline may amplify a tsunami and cause high run-up in the most populated areas or the coast. Also, data from questionnaire surveys administered in Pelabuhan Ratu show a lack of awareness about how tsunamis threaten these communities and plans of action.

Asteroid-Generated Tsunami and Impact Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M.; Aftosmis, M.; Berger, M. J.; Ezzedine, S. M.; Gisler, G.; Jennings, B.; LeVeque, R. J.; Mathias, D.; McCoy, C.; Robertson, D.; Titov, V. V.; Wheeler, L.

2016-12-01

The justification for planetary defense comes from a cost/benefit analysis, which includes risk assessment. The contribution from ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall risk. Our group is currently working toward improved understanding of impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunami. The importance of asteroid-generated tsunami research has increased because a new Science Definition Team, at the behest of NASA's Planetary Defense Coordinating Office, is now updating the results of a 2003 study on which our current planetary defense policy is based Our group was formed to address this question on many fronts, including asteroid entry modeling, tsunami generation and propagation simulations, modeling of coastal run-ups, inundation, and consequences, infrastructure damage estimates, and physics-based probabilistic impact risk assessment. We also organized the Second International Workshop on Asteroid Threat Assessment, focused on asteroid-generated tsunami and associated risk (Aug. 23-24, 2016). We will summarize our progress and present the highlights of our workshop, emphasizing its relevance to earth and planetary science. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations

PubMed Central

Hodgson, Emma E.; Essington, Timothy E.; Kaplan, Isaac C.

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill–Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod–Limacina helicina, pink shrimp–Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab–Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake–Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species’ vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate. PMID:27416031

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Northern Oregon Coast: A Multi-Deterministic Approach Tested at Cannon Beach, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priest, G. R.; Goldfinger, C.; Wang, K.; Witter, R. C.; Zhang, Y.; Baptista, A.

2008-12-01

To update the tsunami hazard assessment method for Oregon, we (1) evaluate geologically reasonable variability of the earthquake rupture process on the Cascadia megathrust, (2) compare those scenarios to geological and geophysical evidence for plate locking, (3) specify 25 deterministic earthquake sources, and (4) use the resulting vertical coseismic deformations as initial conditions for simulation of Cascadia tsunami inundation at Cannon Beach, Oregon. Because of the Cannon Beach focus, the north-south extent of source scenarios is limited to Neah Bay, Washington to Florence, Oregon. We use the marine paleoseismic record to establish recurrence bins from the 10,000 year event record and select representative coseismic slips from these data. Assumed slips on the megathrust are 8.4 m (290 yrs of convergence), 15.2 m (525 years of convergence), 21.6 m (748 years of convergence), and 37.5 m (1298 years of convergence) which, if the sources were extended to the entire Cascadia margin, give Mw varying from approximately 8.3 to 9.3. Additional parameters explored by these scenarios characterize ruptures with a buried megathrust versus splay faulting, local versus regional slip patches, and seaward skewed versus symmetrical slip distribution. By assigning variable weights to the 25 source scenarios using a logic tree approach, we derived percentile inundation lines that express the confidence level (percentage) that a Cascadia tsunami will NOT exceed the line. Lines of 50, 70, 90, and 99 percent confidence correspond to maximum runup of 8.9, 10.5, 13.2, and 28.4 m (NAVD88). The tsunami source with highest logic tree weight (preferred scenario) involved rupture of a splay fault with 15.2 m slip that produced tsunami inundation near the 70 percent confidence line. Minimum inundation consistent with the inland extent of three Cascadia tsunami sand layers deposited east of Cannon Beach within the last 1000 years suggests a minimum of 15.2 m slip on buried megathrust ruptures

Tsunami hazard assessment for the Azores archipelago: a historical review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabral, Nuno; Ferreira, Teresa; Queiroz, Maria Gabriela

2010-05-01

The Azores islands due to its complex geographical and geodynamic setting are exposed to tsunamigenic events associated to different triggering mechanisms, local or distant. Since the settlement of the Azores, in the fifteenth century, there are several documents that relate coastal areas flooding episodes with unusually high waves which caused death and destruction. This work had as main objective the characterization of the different events that can be associated with tsunamigenic phenomena, registered in the archipelago. With this aim, it was collected diverse documentation like chronics, manuscripts, newspaper articles and magazines, scientific publications, and international databases available online. From all the studied tsunami events it was identified the occurrence of some teletsunamis, among which the most relevant was triggered by the 1st November 1755 Lisbon earthquake, with an epicenter SW of Portugal, which killed 6 people in Terceira island. It is also noted the teletsunami generated by the 1761 earthquake, located in the same region as the latest, and the one generated in 1929 by an earthquake-triggered submarine landslide in the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. From the local events, originated in the Azores, the most significant were the tsunamis triggered by 1757 and 1980 earthquakes, both associated with the Terceira Rift dynamics. In the first case the waves may also be due to earthquake-triggered. With respect to tsunamis triggered by sea cliffs landslides it is important to mention the 1847 Quebrada Nova and the 1980 Rocha Alta events, both located in the Flores Island. The 1847 event is the deadliest tsunami recorded in Azores since 10 people died in Flores and Corvo islands in result of the propagated wave. The developed studies improve knowledge of the tsunami sources that affected the Azores during its history, also revealing the importance of awareness about this natural phenomenon. The obtained results showed that the tsunami hazard in the

Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnyder, Jara S. D.; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kirby, James T.; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

2016-11-01

Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms-1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events.

Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank.

PubMed

Schnyder, Jara S D; Eberli, Gregor P; Kirby, James T; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

2016-11-04

Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms -1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events.

Non-seismic tsunamis: filling the forecast gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, C. W.; Titov, V. V.; Spillane, M. C.

2015-12-01

Earthquakes are the generation mechanism in over 85% of tsunamis. However, non-seismic tsunamis, including those generated by meteorological events, landslides, volcanoes, and asteroid impacts, can inundate significant area and have a large far-field effect. The current National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tsunami forecast system falls short in detecting these phenomena. This study attempts to classify the range of effects possible from these non-seismic threats, and to investigate detection methods appropriate for use in a forecast system. Typical observation platforms are assessed, including DART bottom pressure recorders and tide gauges. Other detection paths include atmospheric pressure anomaly algorithms for detecting meteotsunamis and the early identification of asteroids large enough to produce a regional hazard. Real-time assessment of observations for forecast use can provide guidance to mitigate the effects of a non-seismic tsunami.

Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2009-01-01

Estimating the likelihood of tsunamis occurring along the U.S. Atlantic coast critically depends on knowledge of tsunami source probability. We review available information on both earthquake and landslide probabilities from potential sources that could generate local and transoceanic tsunamis. Estimating source probability includes defining both size and recurrence distributions for earthquakes and landslides. For the former distribution, source sizes are often distributed according to a truncated or tapered power-law relationship. For the latter distribution, sources are often assumed to occur in time according to a Poisson process, simplifying the way tsunami probabilities from individual sources can be aggregated. For the U.S. Atlantic coast, earthquake tsunami sources primarily occur at transoceanic distances along plate boundary faults. Probabilities for these sources are constrained from previous statistical studies of global seismicity for similar plate boundary types. In contrast, there is presently little information constraining landslide probabilities that may generate local tsunamis. Though there is significant uncertainty in tsunami source probabilities for the Atlantic, results from this study yield a comparative analysis of tsunami source recurrence rates that can form the basis for future probabilistic analyses.

Tsunami damage in the southern Kanto region from the 1703 Genroku Kanto earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muragishi, J.; Satake, K.

2014-12-01

The Genroku Kanto earthquake occurred on Dec. 31th, 1703 along the Sagami Trough where the Philippine Sea plate subducts beneath the continental plate. Hatori (1976) reported significant tsunami damage with estimated tsunami heights of 5 m along Kujukuri coast on the Pacific Ocean, and estimated the tsunami heights in the inner Tokyo Bay as approximately 2 m. In Tokyo Bay, there are no records that indicate the tsunami inundated residential areas, while some descriptions of tsunami are recorded in Edo, the former Tokyo. The notice from Edo City Commissioners to residences in Edo described that the tsunami came up to the upper-limit of Sumida River in Tokyo, where four major arrivals of tsunamis were reported. According to Saihen-onkoroku, tsunami came to Fukagawa, where one person was killed by throwing away from a boat affected by the tsunami. In Ichikawa along the coast of Chiba Prefecture in Tokyo Bay, there are historical records about the salt farm. The embankments were collapsed and the salt farm was ruined, while the tsunami damage is not described. At this location, the damage due to storm surge in 1680 is recorded in the same document. Although storm surge damage is recorded in detail, there are no records about the Genroku tsunami, suggesting that the tsunami damage, if any, is slighter than the storm surge. Along the Kujukui coast outside the Tokyo bay, the descriptions are not only damage to buildings or deaths but also an influx of sand brought by the tsunami which damaged the agricultural land. In summary, it became certain that the Genroku tsunami caused some damage in the inner Tokyo Bay area. In addition, we found that a wide range of farmland was suffered by influx of sand and crops could not grow well. Such a description may be able to contribute to the tsunami deposits in future research. This study was supported by the Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for Urban Mega Earthquake Disasters from the MEXT of Japan.

Earthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.; Beer, Michael; Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis A.; Patelli, Edoardo; Siu-Kui Au, Ivan

2014-01-01

Tsunamis are generated in the ocean by rapidly displacing the entire water column over a significant area. The potential energy resulting from this disturbance is balanced with the kinetic energy of the waves during propagation. Only a handful of submarine geologic phenomena can generate tsunamis: large-magnitude earthquakes, large landslides, and volcanic processes. Asteroid and subaerial landslide impacts can generate tsunami waves from above the water. Earthquakes are by far the most common generator of tsunamis. Generally, earthquakes greater than magnitude (M) 6.5–7 can generate tsunamis if they occur beneath an ocean and if they result in predominantly vertical displacement. One of the greatest uncertainties in both deterministic and probabilistic hazard assessments of tsunamis is computing seafloor deformation for earthquakes of a given magnitude.

Fusion of real-time simulation, sensing, and geo-informatics in assessing tsunami impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshimura, S.; Inoue, T.; Hino, R.; Ohta, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Musa, A.; Murashima, Y.; Gokon, H.

2015-12-01

Bringing together state-of-the-art high-performance computing, remote sensing and spatial information sciences, we establish a method of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting, damage estimation and mapping to enhance disaster response. Right after a major (near field) earthquake is triggered, we perform a real-time tsunami inundation forecasting with use of high-performance computing platform (Koshimura et al., 2014). Using Tohoku University's vector supercomputer, we accomplished "10-10-10 challenge", to complete tsunami source determination in 10 minutes, tsunami inundation modeling in 10 minutes with 10 m grid resolution. Given the maximum flow depth distribution, we perform quantitative estimation of exposed population using census data and mobile phone data, and the numbers of potential death and damaged structures by applying tsunami fragility curve. After the potential tsunami-affected areas are estimated, the analysis gets focused and moves on to the "detection" phase using remote sensing. Recent advances of remote sensing technologies expand capabilities of detecting spatial extent of tsunami affected area and structural damage. Especially, a semi-automated method to estimate building damage in tsunami affected areas is developed using pre- and post-event high-resolution SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data. The method is verified through the case studies in the 2011 Tohoku and other potential tsunami scenarios, and the prototype system development is now underway in Kochi prefecture, one of at-risk coastal city against Nankai trough earthquake. In the trial operation, we verify the capability of the method as a new tsunami early warning and response system for stakeholders and responders.

Assessment of tsunami resilience of Haydarpaşa Port in the Sea of Marmara by high-resolution numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aytore, Betul; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Zaytsev, Andrey; Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lütfi

2016-08-01

Turkey is highly prone to earthquakes because of active fault zones in the region. The Marmara region located at the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most tectonically active zones in Turkey. Numerous catastrophic events such as earthquakes or earthquake/landslide-induced tsunamis have occurred in the Marmara Sea basin. According to studies on the past tsunami records, the Marmara coasts have been hit by 35 different tsunami events in the last 2000 years. The recent occurrences of catastrophic tsunamis in the world's oceans have also raised awareness about tsunamis that might take place around the Marmara coasts. Similarly, comprehensive studies on tsunamis, such as preparation of tsunami databases, tsunami hazard analysis and assessments, risk evaluations for the potential tsunami-prone regions, and establishing warning systems have accelerated. However, a complete tsunami inundation analysis in high resolution will provide a better understanding of the effects of tsunamis on a specific critical structure located in the Marmara Sea. Ports are one of those critical structures that are susceptible to marine disasters. Resilience of ports and harbors against tsunamis are essential for proper, efficient, and successful rescue operations to reduce loss of life and property. Considering this, high-resolution simulations have been carried out in the Marmara Sea by focusing on Haydarpaşa Port of the megacity Istanbul. In the first stage of simulations, the most critical tsunami sources possibly effective for Haydarpaşa Port were inputted, and the computed tsunami parameters at the port were compared to determine the most critical tsunami scenario. In the second stage of simulations, the nested domains from 90 m gird size to 10 m grid size (in the port region) were used, and the most critical tsunami scenario was modeled. In the third stage of simulations, the topography of the port and its regions were used in the two nested

Develop Probabilistic Tsunami Design Maps for ASCE 7

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Thio, H. K.; Chock, G.; Titov, V. V.

2014-12-01

A national standard for engineering design for tsunami effects has not existed before and this significant risk is mostly ignored in engineering design. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee is completing a chapter for the 2016 edition of ASCE/SEI 7 Standard. Chapter 6, Tsunami Loads and Effects, would become the first national tsunami design provisions. These provisions will apply to essential facilities and critical infrastructure. This standard for tsunami loads and effects will apply to designs as part of the tsunami preparedness. The provisions will have significance as the post-tsunami recovery tool, to plan and evaluate for reconstruction. Maps of 2,500-year probabilistic tsunami inundation for Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii need to be developed for use with the ASCE design provisions. These new tsunami design zone maps will define the coastal zones where structures of greater importance would be designed for tsunami resistance and community resilience. The NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) has developed 75 tsunami inundation models as part of the operational tsunami model forecast capability for the U.S. coastline. NCTR, UW, and URS are collaborating with ASCE to develop the 2,500-year tsunami design maps for the Pacific states using these tsunami models. This ensures the probabilistic criteria are established in ASCE's tsunami design maps. URS established a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment approach consisting of a large amount of tsunami scenarios that include both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability (Thio et al., 2010). Their study provides 2,500-year offshore tsunami heights at the 100-m water depth, along with the disaggregated earthquake sources. NOAA's tsunami models are used to identify a group of sources that produce these 2,500-year tsunami heights. The tsunami inundation limits and runup heights derived from these sources establish the tsunami design map

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume III"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2018-04-01

Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-01-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Development Of New Databases For Tsunami Hazard Analysis In California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Bryant, W. A.; Dengler, L. A.; Goltz, J. D.; Legg, M.; McGuire, T.; Miller, K. M.; Real, C. R.; Synolakis, C.; Uslu, B.

2009-12-01

The California Geological Survey (CGS) has partnered with other tsunami specialists to produce two statewide databases to facilitate the evaluation of tsunami hazard products for both emergency response and land-use planning and development. A robust, State-run tsunami deposit database is being developed that compliments and expands on existing databases from the National Geophysical Data Center (global) and the USGS (Cascadia). Whereas these existing databases focus on references or individual tsunami layers, the new State-maintained database concentrates on the location and contents of individual borings/trenches that sample tsunami deposits. These data provide an important observational benchmark for evaluating the results of tsunami inundation modeling. CGS is collaborating with and sharing the database entry form with other states to encourage its continued development beyond California’s coastline so that historic tsunami deposits can be evaluated on a regional basis. CGS is also developing an internet-based, tsunami source scenario database and forum where tsunami source experts and hydrodynamic modelers can discuss the validity of tsunami sources and their contribution to hazard assessments for California and other coastal areas bordering the Pacific Ocean. The database includes all distant and local tsunami sources relevant to California starting with the forty scenarios evaluated during the creation of the recently completed statewide series of tsunami inundation maps for emergency response planning. Factors germane to probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses (PTHA), such as event histories and recurrence intervals, are also addressed in the database and discussed in the forum. Discussions with other tsunami source experts will help CGS determine what additional scenarios should be considered in PTHA for assessing the feasibility of generating products of value to local land-use planning and development.

Landslide tsunami vulnerability in the Ligurian Sea: case study of the 1979 October 16 Nice international airport submarine landslide and of identified geological mass failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioualalen, M.; Migeon, S.; Sardoux, O.

2010-05-01

The Ligurian sea, at the France-Italy boarder of the Mediterranean Sea, has experienced in the past numerous submarine landslides within its very near continental slope, the continental shelf being very narrow. The most recent occurred on the 1979 October 16 near Nice international airport and generated tsunami waves of order 3 m of amplitude in some specific locations. More ancient landslides are also easily identified through bathymetric surveys of the seafloor. For the 1979 event we propose two distinct tsunamigenic landslides based on identified scars observable on the seafloor. The first one corresponds to the volume Vol1 that slid at the airport (in shallow water) while the second one corresponds to the more substantial volume Vol2 that has been localized at the slope. Former studies indicate that only the combination of the two slides may explain the event. We complement these studies by asserting that when the two slides are taken separately, they already explain a significant (although not a total) part of the event: Vol1 explains partly the tsunami observations in the vicinity of the airport while Vol2 contributes to explain the ones away from the area, in particular at Antibes where the highest wave has been observed. The modelling effort is then extended to evaluate the tsunamigenesis of selected (but representative) former landslides having a clear scar signature. The vulnerability of the area to landslide-triggered tsunami is then proposed to discussion along with possible mechanisms that can be responsible for local wave amplification.

Tsunamis triggered by the 12 January 2010 Earthquake in Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Hillaire, J. V.; Molière, E.; Mohammed, F.; Wei, Y.

2010-12-01

On 12 January 2010 a magnitude Mw 7.0 earthquake occurred 25 km west-southwest of Haiti’s Capital of Port-au-Prince, which resulted in more than 230,000 fatalities. In addition tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake caused at least 3 fatalities at Petit Paradis. Unfortunately, the people of Haiti had neither ancestral knowledge nor educational awareness of tsunami hazards despite the 1946 Dominican Republic tsunami at Hispaniola’s northeast coast. In sharp contrast Sri Lankan UN-soldiers on duty at Jacmel self-evacuated given the memory of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, and performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 31 January to 7 February 2010 ITST covered the greater Bay of Port-au-Prince and more than 100 km of Hispaniola’s south coast between Pedernales, Dominican Republic and Jacmel, Haiti. The Hispaniola survey data includes more than 20 runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impacts peaked with maximum flow depths exceeding 3 m both at Petit Paradis inside the Bay of Grand Goâve located 45 km west-southwest of Port-au-Prince and at Jacmel on Haiti’s south coast. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed on Hispaniola and tsunami runup of more than 1 m was still observed at Pedernales in the Dominican Republic. Jacmel, which is near the center of the south coast, represents an unfortunate example of a village and harbor that was located for protection from storm waves but is vulnerable to tsunami waves with runup doubling from the entrance to the head of the bay. Inundation and damage was limited to less than 100 m inland at both Jacmel and Petit Paradis. Differences in wave period were documented between the tsunami waves at Petit Paradis and Jacmel. The Petit Paradis tsunami is attributed to a coastal submarine landslide

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

2015-03-01

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

Simulated tsunami run-up amplification factors around Penang Island for preliminary risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yong Hui; Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye; Tan, Wai Kiat

2017-08-01

The mega-tsunami Andaman that struck Malaysia on 26 December 2004 affected 200 kilometers of northwest Peninsular Malaysia coastline from Perlis to Selangor. It is anticipated by the tsunami scientific community that the next mega-tsunami is due to occur any time soon. This rare catastrophic event has awakened the attention of Malaysian government to take appropriate risk reduction measures, including timely and orderly evacuation. To effectively evacuate ordinary citizens to a safe ground or a nearest designated emergency shelter, a well prepared evacuation route is essential with the estimated tsunami run-up heights and inundation distances on land clearly indicated on the evacuation map. The run-up heights and inundation distances are simulated by an in-house model 2-D TUNA-RP based upon credible scientific tsunami source scenarios derived from tectonic activity around the region. To provide a useful tool for estimating the run-up heights along the entire coast of Penang Island, we computed tsunami amplification factors based upon 2-D TUNA-RP model simulations in this paper. The inundation map and run-up amplification factors in six domains along the entire coastline of Penang Island are provided. The comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrates good agreement.

Seismogeodesy and Rapid Earthquake and Tsunami Source Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar Moctezuma, Diego

This dissertation presents an optimal combination algorithm for strong motion seismograms and regional high rate GPS recordings. This seismogeodetic solution produces estimates of ground motion that recover the whole seismic spectrum, from the permanent deformation to the Nyquist frequency of the accelerometer. This algorithm will be demonstrated and evaluated through outdoor shake table tests and recordings of large earthquakes, notably the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki events. This dissertations will also show that strong motion velocity and displacement data obtained from the seismogeodetic solution can be instrumental to quickly determine basic parameters of the earthquake source. We will show how GPS and seismogeodetic data can produce rapid estimates of centroid moment tensors, static slip inversions, and most importantly, kinematic slip inversions. Throughout the dissertation special emphasis will be placed on how to compute these source models with minimal interaction from a network operator. Finally we will show that the incorporation of off-shore data such as ocean-bottom pressure and RTK-GPS buoys can better-constrain the shallow slip of large subduction events. We will demonstrate through numerical simulations of tsunami propagation that the earthquake sources derived from the seismogeodetic and ocean-based sensors is detailed enough to provide a timely and accurate assessment of expected tsunami intensity immediately following a large earthquake.

A simple model for calculating tsunami flow speed from tsunami deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, B.E.; Gelfenbuam, G.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a simple model for tsunami sedimentation that can be applied to calculate tsunami flow speed from the thickness and grain size of a tsunami deposit (the inverse problem). For sandy tsunami deposits where grain size and thickness vary gradually in the direction of transport, tsunami sediment transport is modeled as a steady, spatially uniform process. The amount of sediment in suspension is assumed to be in equilibrium with the steady portion of the long period, slowing varying uprush portion of the tsunami. Spatial flow deceleration is assumed to be small and not to contribute significantly to the tsunami deposit. Tsunami deposits are formed from sediment settling from the water column when flow speeds on land go to zero everywhere at the time of maximum tsunami inundation. There is little erosion of the deposit by return flow because it is a slow flow and is concentrated in topographic lows. Variations in grain size of the deposit are found to have more effect on calculated tsunami flow speed than deposit thickness. The model is tested using field data collected at Arop, Papua New Guinea soon after the 1998 tsunami. Speed estimates of 14??m/s at 200??m inland from the shoreline compare favorably with those from a 1-D inundation model and from application of Bernoulli's principle to water levels on buildings left standing after the tsunami. As evidence that the model is applicable to some sandy tsunami deposits, the model reproduces the observed normal grading and vertical variation in sorting and skewness of a deposit formed by the 1998 tsunami.

Proposal of a method for evaluating tsunami risk using response-surface methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukutani, Y.

2017-12-01

Information on probabilistic tsunami inundation hazards is needed to define and evaluate tsunami risk. Several methods for calculating these hazards have been proposed (e.g. Løvholt et al. (2012), Thio (2012), Fukutani et al. (2014), Goda et al. (2015)). However, these methods are inefficient, and their calculation cost is high, since they require multiple tsunami numerical simulations, therefore lacking versatility. In this study, we proposed a simpler method for tsunami risk evaluation using response-surface methodology. Kotani et al. (2016) proposed an evaluation method for the probabilistic distribution of tsunami wave-height using a response-surface methodology. We expanded their study and developed a probabilistic distribution of tsunami inundation depth. We set the depth (x1) and the slip (x2) of an earthquake fault as explanatory variables and tsunami inundation depth (y) as an object variable. Subsequently, tsunami risk could be evaluated by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming that the generation probability of an earthquake follows a Poisson distribution, the probability distribution of tsunami inundation depth follows the distribution derived from a response-surface, and the damage probability of a target follows a log normal distribution. We applied the proposed method to a wood building located on the coast of Tokyo Bay. We implemented a regression analysis based on the results of 25 tsunami numerical calculations and developed a response-surface, which was defined as y=ax1+bx2+c (a:0.2615, b:3.1763, c=-1.1802). We assumed proper probabilistic distribution for earthquake generation, inundation height, and vulnerability. Based on these probabilistic distributions, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 years. We clarified that the expected damage probability of the studied wood building is 22.5%, assuming that an earthquake occurs. The proposed method is therefore a useful and simple way to evaluate tsunami risk using a response

Impacts of the June 23, 2001 Peru Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.

2001-12-01

The tsunami generated by the June 23, 2001 Peru earthquake caused significant damage to a 20-km long stretch of coastline in the Municipality of Camana, southern Peru. Over 3000 structures were damaged or destroyed and 2000 hectares of farmland flooded and covered with sand. 22 people were killed in the Municipality and 62 were reported missing. All of the casualties were attributed to the tsunami; in Camana the earthquake produced Modified Mercalli Intensities only of VI or VII. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) were in Peru July 5 - 15 and measured inundation, spoke with City, Red Cross, and Health Department officials, and interviewed survivors. The preliminary ITST findings: All eyewitnesses described an initial draw-down that lasted a substantial amount of time (15 minutes or more). The initial positive wave was small, followed by two destructive waves of near similar impact. Observing the water recede was the key to self-evacuation. No one responded to the ground shaking even though all felt the earthquake strongly. Damage was concentrated along a flat coastal beach no higher than 5 m above sea level. The largest waves (5 to 8 meters) produced by this tsunami coincided with the most developed beach area along the southern Peruvian coast. Tsunami waves penetrated 1.2-km inland and damaged or destroyed nearly all of the structures in this zone. Poorly built adobe and infilled wall structures performed very poorly in the tsunami impacted area. The few structures that survived appeared to have deeper foundations and more reinforcing. The most tsunami-vulnerable populations were newcomers to the coast. Most victims were farm workers and domestic summerhouse sitters who had not grown up along the coast and were unaware of tsunami hazards. Economic impacts are likely to last a long time. The main industries in Camana are tourism and agriculture and the tsunami damaged both. While the extent of inundation and the number of structures damaged or destroyed

Effect of Variable Manning Coefficients on Tsunami Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Rees, D.

2017-12-01

Numerical simulations are commonly used to help estimate tsunami hazard, improve evacuation plans, issue or cancel tsunami warnings, inform forecasting and hazard assessments and have therefore become an integral part of hazard mitigation among the tsunami community. Many numerical codes exist for simulating tsunamis, most of which have undergone extensive benchmarking and testing. Tsunami hazard or risk assessments employ these codes following a deterministic or probabilistic approach. Depending on the scope these studies may or may not consider uncertainty in the numerical simulations, the effects of tides, variable friction or estimate financial losses, none of which are necessarily trivial. Distributed manning coefficients, the roughness coefficients used in hydraulic modeling, are commonly used in simulating both riverine and pluvial flood events however, their use in tsunami hazard assessments is primarily part of limited scope studies and for the most part, not a standard practice. For this work, we investigate variations in manning coefficients and their effects on tsunami inundation extent, pattern and financial loss. To assign manning coefficients we use land use maps that come from the New Zealand Land Cover Database (LCDB) and more recent data from the Ministry of the Environment. More than 40 classes covering different types of land use are combined into major classes such as cropland, grassland and wetland representing common types of land use in New Zealand, each of which is assigned a unique manning coefficient. By utilizing different data sources for variable manning coefficients, we examine the impact of data sources and classification methodology on the accuracy of model outputs.

Changes in Tsunami Risk Perception in Northern Chile After the April 1 2014 Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, L.; Lagos, M.

2016-12-01

Tsunamis are a permanent risk in the coast of Chile. Apart from that, the coastal settlements and the Chilean State, historically, have underestimated the danger of tsunamis. On April 1 2014, a magnitude Mw 8.2 earthquake and a minor tsunami occurred off the coast of northern Chile. Considering that over decades this region has been awaiting an earthquake that would generate a large tsunami, in this study we inquired if the familiarity with the subject tsunami and the lack of frequent tsunamis or occurrence of non-hazardous tsunamis for people could lead to adaptive responses to underestimate the danger. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the perceived risk of tsunami in the city of Arica, before and after the April 1 2014 event. A questionnaire was designed and applied in two time periods to 547 people living in low coastal areas in Arica. In the first step, the survey was applied in March 2014. While in step 2, new questions were included and the survey was reapplied, a year after the minor tsunami. A descriptive analysis of data was performed, followed by a comparison between means. We identified illusion of invulnerability, especially regarding to assessment that preparedness and education actions are enough. Answers about lack of belief in the occurrence of future tsunamis were also reported. At the same time, there were learning elements identified. After April 1, a larger number of participants described self-protection actions for emergency, as well as performing of preventive actions. In addition, we mapped answers about the tsunami danger degree in different locations in the city, where we observed a high knowledge of it. When compared with other hazards, the concern about tsunamis were very high, lower than earthquakes hazard, but higher than pollution, crime and rain. Moreover, we identified place attachment in answers about sense of security and affective bonds with home and their location. We discussed the relationship between risk perception

Sex differentials in the risk factors of post traumatic stress disorder among tsunami survivors in Tamil Nadu, India.

PubMed

T T, Pyari; T K, Sundari Ravindran

2016-10-01

This study assessed if pre disaster, with-in disaster and post disaster factors predicted Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) differently, among men and women survivors of the 2004 Southeast Asian tsunami in Kanyakumari district, Tamil Nadu, India. PTSD was identified using a validated tool, Impact of Events Scale-Revised (IES-R) among the participants in a cross-sectional community based survey (n=485). Case control analysis of 299 subjects was done to determine the predictors of PTSD. The odds of having PTSD were 6.35 times higher in women than men. Higher odds for PTSD was seen among women who were married, aged over 40, belonged to low socioeconomic status and resided in heavily damaged areas. Protective odds for PTSD was found among women who had received more than three times of counseling services whereas men were not at risk if they were free from fear of recurrence of tsunami, when adjusted for other variables. Women were vulnerable to PTSD because of their socially constructed roles. It is important to consider gender based vulnerabilities while designing interventions to combat mental health problems among disaster affected communities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Revisiting the 1761 Transatlantic Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, Maria Ana; Wronna, Martin; Miranda, Jorge Miguel

2016-04-01

The tsunami catalogs of the Atlantic include two transatlantic tsunamis in the 18th century the well known 1st November 1755 and the 31st March 1761. The 31st March 1761 earthquake struck Portugal, Spain, and Morocco. The earthquake occurred around noontime in Lisbon alarming the inhabitants and throwing down ruins of the past 1st November 1755 earthquake. According to several sources, the earthquake was followed by a tsunami observed as far as Cornwall (United Kingdom), Cork (Ireland) and Barbados (Caribbean). The analysis of macroseismic information and its compatibility with tsunami travel time information led to a source area close to the Ampere Seamount with an estimated epicenter circa 34.5°N 13°W. The estimated magnitude of the earthquake was 8.5. In this study, we revisit the tsunami observations, and we include a report from Cadiz not used before. We use the results of the compilation of the multi-beam bathymetric data, that covers the area between 34°N - 38°N and 12.5°W - 5.5°W and use the recent tectonic map published for the Southwest Iberian Margin to select among possible source scenarios. Finally, we use a non-linear shallow water model that includes the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme to solve the shallow water equations in the spherical or Cartesian coordinate to compute tsunami waveforms and tsunami inundation and check the results against the historical descriptions to infer the source of the event. This study received funding from project ASTARTE- Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe a collaborative project Grant 603839, FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3

Reconstructing Tsunami Flow Speed from Sedimentary Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, B. E.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.

2014-12-01

Paleotsunami deposits contain information about the flow that created them that can be used to reconstruct tsunami flow speed and thereby improving assessment of tsunami hazard. We applied an inverse tsunami sediment transport model to sandy deposits near Sendai Airport, Japan, that formed during the 11 March 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami to test model performance and explore the spatial variations in tsunami flow speed. The inverse model assumes the amount of suspended sediment in the water column is in equilibrium with local flow speed and that sediment transport convergences, primarily from bedload transport, do not contribute significantly to formation of the portion of the deposit we identify as formed by sediment settling out of suspension. We interpret massive or inversely graded intervals as forming from sediment transport convergences and do not model them. Sediment falling out of suspension forms a specific type of normal grading, termed 'suspension' grading, where the entire grain size distribution shifts to finer sizes higher up in a deposit. Suspension grading is often observed in deposits of high-energy flows, including turbidity currents and tsunamis. The inverse model calculates tsunami flow speed from the thickness and bulk grain size of a suspension-graded interval. We identified 24 suspension-graded intervals from 7 trenches located near the Sendai Airport from ~250-1350 m inland from the shoreline. Flow speeds were highest ~500 m from the shoreline, landward of the forested sand dunes where the tsunami encountered lower roughness in a low-lying area as it traveled downslope. Modeled tsunami flow speeds range from 2.2 to 9.0 m/s. Tsunami flow speeds are sensitive to roughness, which is unfortunately poorly constrained. Flow speed calculated by the inverse model was similar to those calculated from video taken from a helicopter about 1-2 km inland. Deposit reconstructions of suspension-graded intervals reproduced observed upward shifts in grain size

Benchmarking on Tsunami Currents with ComMIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharghi vand, N.; Kanoglu, U.

2015-12-01

agreement no 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)

Statistical Analysis of Tsunami Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolezzi, Francesca; Del Giudice, Tania; Traverso, Chiara; Valfrè, Giulio; Poggi, Pamela; Parker, Eric J.

2010-05-01

The purpose of this paper was to investigate statistical variability of seismically generated tsunami impact. The specific goal of the work was to evaluate the variability in tsunami wave run-up due to uncertainty in fault rupture parameters (source effects) and to the effects of local bathymetry at an individual location (site effects). This knowledge is critical to development of methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Two types of variability were considered: • Inter-event; • Intra-event. Generally, inter-event variability refers to the differences of tsunami run-up at a given location for a number of different earthquake events. The focus of the current study was to evaluate the variability of tsunami run-up at a given point for a given magnitude earthquake. In this case, the variability is expected to arise from lack of knowledge regarding the specific details of the fault rupture "source" parameters. As sufficient field observations are not available to resolve this question, numerical modelling was used to generate run-up data. A scenario magnitude 8 earthquake in the Hellenic Arc was modelled. This is similar to the event thought to have caused the infamous 1303 tsunami. The tsunami wave run-up was computed at 4020 locations along the Egyptian coast between longitudes 28.7° E and 33.8° E. Specific source parameters (e.g. fault rupture length and displacement) were varied, and the effects on wave height were determined. A Monte Carlo approach considering the statistical distribution of the underlying parameters was used to evaluate the variability in wave height at locations along the coast. The results were evaluated in terms of the coefficient of variation of the simulated wave run-up (standard deviation divided by mean value) for each location. The coefficient of variation along the coast was between 0.14 and 3.11, with an average value of 0.67. The variation was higher in areas of irregular coast. This level of variability is

Evaluating tsunami risk perception and preparedness of people and institutions in the town of Siracusa, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano; Grancher, Delphine; Goeldner-Gianella, Lydie; Lavigne, Franck; Evans, Manon; Brunstein, Daniel

2016-04-01

The eastern coast of Sicily is characterized by high population density, with three main cities (Messina, Catania and Siracusa) and many other touristic and industrial poles. At the same time, many possible sources of hazard exist in the area, from the highest volcano in Europe (Mt. Etna) to the several faults existing both inland and offshore in the Ionian Sea, and to the Hyblaean-Malta Escarpment running parallel to the coast close to the shoreline, incised by several scars and canyons. Seismic and tsunami catalogues account for such an intense activity, with some major events causing several damages and casualties, the main of which being the 1693 (Augusta) and 1908 (Messina) earthquakes and consequent tsunami. For such reasons the area of Siracusa and its surroundings was chosen as one of the test sites of the EU Project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3), investigating many aspects of tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk along the coasts of Europe. One of the main aims of the project is to assess the perception and preparedness of people and local authorities to natural hazards, with particular attention to tsunamis, in the test sites. This task was performed by realizing a questionnaire, subdivided into some sections, each one estimating a particular aspect: from the relation of the interviewed person with the site, to his/her perception of the risk and reaction in case of alert, to the knowledge of warning systems and evacuation procedures. The questions were submitted to local people and tourists in the town center of Siracusa, and also provided to delegates of local authorities, such as municipality and Civil Protection Department. The questionnaire results show a very low level of awareness of the risk connected to tsunamis, which is surprising if one considers the relatively recent catastrophic event of Messina, involving the whole eastern coast of Sicily. On the other hand

Holocene Tsunamis in Avachinsky Bay, Kamchatka, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinegina, Tatiana K.; Bazanova, Lilya I.; Zelenin, Egor A.; Bourgeois, Joanne; Kozhurin, Andrey I.; Medvedev, Igor P.; Vydrin, Danil S.

2018-04-01

This article presents results of the study of tsunami deposits on the Avachinsky Bay coast, Kurile-Kamchatka island arc, NW Pacific. We used tephrochronology to assign ages to the tsunami deposits, to correlate them between excavations, and to restore paleo-shoreline positions. In addition to using established regional marker tephra, we establish a detailed tephrochronology for more local tephra from Avachinsky volcano. For the first time in this area, proximal to Kamchatka's primary population, we reconstruct the vertical runup and horizontal inundation for 33 tsunamis recorded over the past 4200 years, 5 of which are historical events - 1737, 1792, 1841, 1923 (Feb) and 1952. The runup heights for all 33 tsunamis range from 1.9 to 5.7 m, and inundation distances from 40 to 460 m. The average recurrence for historical events is 56 years and for the entire study period 133 years. The obtained data makes it possible to calculate frequencies of tsunamis by size, using reconstructed runup and inundation, which is crucial for tsunami hazard assessment and long-term tsunami forecasting. Considering all available data on the distribution of historical and paleo-tsunami heights along eastern Kamchatka, we conclude that the southern part of the Kamchatka subduction zone generates stronger tsunamis than its northern part. The observed differences could be associated with variations in the relative velocity and/or coupling between the downgoing Pacific Plate and Kamchatka.

Holocene Tsunamis in Avachinsky Bay, Kamchatka, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinegina, Tatiana K.; Bazanova, Lilya I.; Zelenin, Egor A.; Bourgeois, Joanne; Kozhurin, Andrey I.; Medvedev, Igor P.; Vydrin, Danil S.

2018-03-01

This article presents results of the study of tsunami deposits on the Avachinsky Bay coast, Kurile-Kamchatka island arc, NW Pacific. We used tephrochronology to assign ages to the tsunami deposits, to correlate them between excavations, and to restore paleo-shoreline positions. In addition to using established regional marker tephra, we establish a detailed tephrochronology for more local tephra from Avachinsky volcano. For the first time in this area, proximal to Kamchatka's primary population, we reconstruct the vertical runup and horizontal inundation for 33 tsunamis recorded over the past 4200 years, 5 of which are historical events - 1737, 1792, 1841, 1923 (Feb) and 1952. The runup heights for all 33 tsunamis range from 1.9 to 5.7 m, and inundation distances from 40 to 460 m. The average recurrence for historical events is 56 years and for the entire study period 133 years. The obtained data makes it possible to calculate frequencies of tsunamis by size, using reconstructed runup and inundation, which is crucial for tsunami hazard assessment and long-term tsunami forecasting. Considering all available data on the distribution of historical and paleo-tsunami heights along eastern Kamchatka, we conclude that the southern part of the Kamchatka subduction zone generates stronger tsunamis than its northern part. The observed differences could be associated with variations in the relative velocity and/or coupling between the downgoing Pacific Plate and Kamchatka.

The Use of Intensity Scales In Exploiting Tsunami Historical Databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Scheele, F.

2015-12-01

Post-disaster assessments for historical tsunami events (>15 years old) are either scarce or contain limited information. In this study, we are assessing ways to examine tsunami impacts by utilizing data from old events, but more importantly we examine how to best utilize information contained in tsunami historical databases, in order to provide meaningful products that describe the impact of the event. As such, a tsunami intensity scale was applied to two historical events that were observed in New Zealand (one local and one distant), in order to utilize the largest possible number of observations in our dataset. This is especially important for countries like New Zealand where the tsunami historical record is short, going back to only the 19th century, and where instrument recordings are only available for the most recent events. We found that despite a number of challenges in using intensities -uncertainties partly due to limitations of historical event data - these data with the help of GIS tools can be used to produce hazard maps and offer an alternative way to exploit tsunami historical records. Most importantly the assignment of intensities at each point of observation allows for utilization of many more observations than if one depends on physical information alone, such as water heights. We hope these results may be used towards developing a well-defined methodology for hazard assessments, and refine our knowledge for past tsunami events for which the tsunami sources are largely unknown, and also for when physical quantities describing the tsunami (e.g. water height, flood depth, run-up) are scarce.

Errors in Tsunami Source Estimation from Tide Gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcas, D.

2012-12-01

Linearity of tsunami waves in deep water can be assessed as a comparison of flow speed, u to wave propagation speed √gh. In real tsunami scenarios this evaluation becomes impractical due to the absence of observational data of tsunami flow velocities in shallow water. Consequently the extent of validity of the linear regime in the ocean is unclear. Linearity is the fundamental assumption behind tsunami source inversion processes based on linear combinations of unit propagation runs from a deep water propagation database (Gica et al., 2008). The primary tsunami elevation data for such inversion is usually provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) deep-water tsunami detection systems known as DART. The use of tide gauge data for such inversions is more controversial due to the uncertainty of wave linearity at the depth of the tide gauge site. This study demonstrates the inaccuracies incurred in source estimation using tide gauge data in conjunction with a linear combination procedure for tsunami source estimation.

The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Keith; Byers, William; Dykstra, David; Lim, Amy; Lynett, Patrick; Ratliff, Jaime; Scawthorn, Charles; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick

2013-01-01

damageability of assets exposed to loss. Then, applying the damageability model and the velocity, wave amplitude, and inundation models discussed in other SAFRR chapters we offer a single realistic depiction of damage. Other outcomes are of course possible for this hypothetical event. Where practical we estimate repair costs and estimate the duration required to restore the assets to their pre-tsunami condition. We identify opportunities to enhance the resiliency of the assets, either through making them less vulnerable to damage or able to recover more quickly in spite of the damage. Finally, we identify uncertainties in the modeling where research would improve our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of damage and loss or otherwise improve our ability to estimate the future impacts of tsunamis and inform risk-management decisions for tsunamis. However, it is certain that the kinds of damages discussed here have occurred in past tsunamis, even in developed nations, and in a sufficiently large event, will occur in California. Our uncertainties can operate in either direction, either leading to an overestimate of damage or an underestimate. Therefore, losses in an actual future tsunami could be greater than depicted here. Furthermore this evaluation is not intended to be an exhaustive depiction of what could happen in this or similar tsunamis. Other impacts could occur that are not presented here.

Post-crisis analysis of an ineffective tsunami alert: the 2010 earthquake in Maule, Chile.

PubMed

Soulé, Bastien

2014-04-01

Considering its huge magnitude and its location in a densely populated area of Chile, the Maule seism of 27 February 2010 generated a low amount of victims. However, post-seismic tsunamis were particularly devastating on that day; surprisingly, no full alert was launched, not at the national, regional or local level. This earthquake and associated tsunamis are of interest in the context of natural hazards management as well as crisis management planning. Instead of focusing exclusively on the event itself, this article places emphasis on the process, systems and long-term approach that led the tsunami alert mechanism to be ineffectual. Notably, this perspective reveals interrelated forerunner signs of vulnerability. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Tsunami Science for Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, E. N.

2014-12-01

As the decade of mega-tsunamis has unfolded with new data, the science of tsunami has advanced at an unprecedented pace. Our responsibility to society should guide the use of these new scientific discoveries to better prepare society for the next tsunami. This presentation will focus on the impacts of the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis and new societal expectations accompanying enhanced funding for tsunami research. A list of scientific products, including tsunami hazard maps, tsunami energy scale, real-time tsunami flooding estimates, and real-time current velocities in harbors will be presented to illustrate society's need for relevant, easy to understand tsunami information. Appropriate use of these tsunami scientific products will be presented to demonstrate greater tsunami resilience for tsunami threatened coastlines. Finally, a scientific infrastructure is proposed to ensure that these products are both scientifically sound and represent today's best practices to protect the scientific integrity of the products as well as the safety of coastal residents.

Tsunami Catalogues for the Eastern Mediterranean - Revisited.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambraseys, N.; Synolakis, C. E.

2008-12-01

We critically examine examine tsunami catalogues of tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean published in the last decade, by reference to the original sources, see Ambraseys (2008). Such catalogues have been widely used in the aftermath of the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami for probabilistic hazard analysis, even to make projections for a ten year time frame. On occasion, such predictions have caused panic and have reduced the credibility of the scientific community in making hazard assessments. We correct classification and other spurious errors in earlier catalogues and posit a new list. We conclude that for some historic events, any assignment of magnitude, even on a six point intensity scale is inappropriate due to lack of information. Further we assert that any tsunami catalogue, including ours, can only be used in conjunction with sedimentologic evidence to quantitatively infer the return period of larger events. Statistical analyses correlating numbers of tsunami events derived solely from catalogues with their inferred or imagined intensities are meaningless, at least when focusing on specific locales where only a handful of tsunamis are known to have been historically reported. Quantitative hazard assessments based on scenario events of historic tsunamis for which -at best- only the size and approximate location of the parent earthquake is known should be undertaken with extreme caution and only with benefit of geologic studies to enhance the understanding of the local tectonics. Ambraseys N. (2008) Earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: multidisciplinary study of 2000 years of seimicity, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge (ISBN 9780521872928).

Tsunami simulation method initiated from waveforms observed by ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami forecast; Applied for 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro

2017-04-01

After tsunami disaster due to the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake, improvement of the tsunami forecast has been an urgent issue in Japan. National Institute of Disaster Prevention is installing a cable network system of earthquake and tsunami observation (S-NET) at the ocean bottom along the Japan and Kurile trench. This cable system includes 125 pressure sensors (tsunami meters) which are separated by 30 km. Along the Nankai trough, JAMSTEC already installed and operated the cable network system of seismometers and pressure sensors (DONET and DONET2). Those systems are the most dense observation network systems on top of source areas of great underthrust earthquakes in the world. Real-time tsunami forecast has depended on estimation of earthquake parameters, such as epicenter, depth, and magnitude of earthquakes. Recently, tsunami forecast method has been developed using the estimation of tsunami source from tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensors. However, when we have many pressure sensors separated by 30km on top of the source area, we do not need to estimate the tsunami source or earthquake source to compute tsunami. Instead, we can initiate a tsunami simulation from those dense tsunami observed data. Observed tsunami height differences with a time interval at the ocean bottom pressure sensors separated by 30 km were used to estimate tsunami height distribution at a particular time. In our new method, tsunami numerical simulation was initiated from those estimated tsunami height distribution. In this paper, the above method is improved and applied for the tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake. Tsunami source model of the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake estimated using observed tsunami waveforms, coseimic deformation observed by GPS and ocean bottom sensors by Gusman et al. (2012) is used in this study. The ocean surface deformation is computed from the source model and used as an initial condition of tsunami

Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maria, Rizka

2018-02-01

Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Lane, Emily; Gillibrand, Philip

2013-09-01

Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.

New Perspective of Tsunami Deposit Investigations: Insight from the 1755 Lisbon Tsunami in Martinique, Lesser Antilles.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roger, J.; Clouard, V.; Moizan, E.

2014-12-01

The recent devastating tsunamis having occurred during the last decades have highlighted the essential necessity to deploy operationnal warning systems and educate coastal populations. This could not be prepared correctly without a minimum knowledge about the tsunami history. That is the case of the Lesser Antilles islands, where a few handfuls of tsunamis have been reported over the past 5 centuries, some of them leading to notable destructions and inundations. But the lack of accurate details for most of the historical tsunamis and the limited period during which we could find written information represents an important problem for tsunami hazard assessment in this region. Thus, it is of major necessity to try to find other evidences of past tsunamis by looking for sedimentary deposits. Unfortunately, island tropical environments do not seem to be the best places to keep such deposits burried. In fact, heavy rainfalls, storms, and all other phenomena leading to coastal erosion, and associated to human activities such as intensive sugarcane cultivation in coastal flat lands, could caused the loss of potential tsunami deposits. Lots of places have been accurately investigated within the Lesser Antilles (from Sainte-Lucia to the British Virgin Islands) the last 3 years and nothing convincing has been found. That is when archeaological investigations excavated a 8-cm thick sandy and shelly layer in downtown Fort-de-France (Martinique), wedged between two well-identified layers of human origin (Fig. 1), that we found new hope: this sandy layer has been quickly attributed without any doubt to the 1755 tsunami, using on one hand the information provided by historical reports of the construction sites, and on the other hand by numerical modeling of the tsunami (wave heights, velocity fields, etc.) showing the ability of this transoceanic tsunami to wrap around the island after ~7 hours of propagation, enter Fort-de-France's Bay with enough energy to carry sediments, and

Impact of earthquake-induced tsunamis on public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavroulis, Spyridon; Mavrouli, Maria; Lekkas, Efthymios; Tsakris, Athanassios

2017-04-01

Tsunamis are caused by rapid sea floor displacement during earthquakes, landslides and large explosive eruptions in marine environment setting. Massive amounts of sea water in the form of devastating surface waves travelling hundreds of kilometers per hour have the potential to cause extensive damage to coastal infrastructures, considerable loss of life and injury and emergence of infectious diseases (ID). This study involved an extensive and systematic literature review of 50 research publications related to public health impact of the three most devastating tsunamis of the last 12 years induced by great earthquakes, namely the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (moment magnitude Mw 9.2), the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) and the 2011 Tōhoku (Japan) earthquake (Mw 9.0) in the Indian, Western Pacific and South Pacific Oceans respectively. The inclusion criteria were literature type comprising journal articles and official reports, natural disaster type including tsunamis induced only by earthquakes, population type including humans, and outcome measure characterized by disease incidence increase. The potential post-tsunami ID are classified into 11 groups including respiratory, pulmonary, wound-related, water-borne, skin, vector-borne, eye, fecal-oral, food-borne, fungal and mite-borne ID. Respiratory infections were detected after all the above mentioned tsunamis. Wound-related, skin and water-borne ID were observed after the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis, while vector-borne, fecal-oral and eye ID were observed only after the 2004 tsunami and pulmonary, food-borne and mite-borne ID were diagnosed only after the 2011 tsunami. Based on available age and genre data, it is concluded that the most vulnerable population groups are males, children (age ≤ 15 years) and adults (age ≥ 65 years). Tetanus and pneumonia are the deadliest post-tsunami ID. The detected risk factors include (1) lowest socioeconomic conditions, poorly constructed buildings and lack of prevention

The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

2010-05-01

The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context

Using Interdisciplinary Research Methods to Revise and Strengthen the NWS TsunamiReadyTM Community Recognition Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C.; Gregg, C. E.; Ritchie, L.; Stephen, M.; Farnham, C.; Fraser, S. A.; Gill, D.; Horan, J.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnson, V.; Johnston, D.

2013-12-01

The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) partnered with the National Weather Service (NWS) in early 2000 to create the TsunamiReadyTM Community Recognition program. TsunamiReadyTM, modeled after the older NWS StormReadyTM program, is designed to help cities, towns, counties, universities and other large sites in coastal areas reduce the potential for disastrous tsunami-related consequences. To achieve TsunamiReadyTM recognition, communities must meet certain criteria aimed at better preparing a community for tsunami, including specific actions within the following categories: communications and coordination, tsunami warning reception, local warning dissemination, community preparedness, and administration. Using multidisciplinary research methods and strategies from Public Health; Psychology; Political, Social and Physical Sciences and Evaluation, our research team is working directly with a purposive sample of community stakeholders in collaboration and feedback focus group sessions. Invitation to participate is based on a variety of factors including but not limited to an individual's role as a formal or informal community leader (e.g., in business, government, civic organizations), or their organization or agency affiliation to emergency management and response. Community organizing and qualitative research methods are being used to elicit discussion regarding TsunamiReadyTM requirements and the division of requirements based on some aspect of tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk, such as proximity to active or passive plate margins or subduction zone generated tsunamis versus earthquake-landslide generated tsunamis . The primary aim of this research is to use social science to revise and refine the NWS TsunamiReadyTM Guidelines in an effort to better prepare communities to reduce risk to tsunamis.

Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank

PubMed Central

Schnyder, Jara S.D.; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kirby, James T.; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

2016-01-01

Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms−1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events. PMID:27811961

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Treesearch

Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2015-01-01

Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume III”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2018-01-01

Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Tsunami Generation from Asteroid Airburst and Ocean Impact and Van Dorn Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Darrel

2016-01-01

Airburst - In the simulations explored energy from the airburst couples very weakly with the water making tsunami dangerous over a shorter distance than the blast for asteroid sizes up to the maximum expected size that will still airburst (approx.250MT). Future areas of investigation: - Low entry angle airbursts create more cylindrical blasts and might couple more efficiently - Bursts very close to the ground will increase coupling - Inclusion of thermosphere (>80km altitude) may show some plume collapse effects over a large area although with much less pressure center dot Ocean Impact - Asteroid creates large cavity in ocean. Cavity backfills creating central jet. Oscillation between the cavity and jet sends out tsunami wave packet. - For deep ocean impact waves are deep water waves (Phase speed = 2x Group speed) - If the tsunami propagation and inundation calculations are correct for the small (<250MT) asteroids in these simulations where they impact deep ocean basins, the resulting tsunami is not a significant hazard unless particularly close to vulnerable communities. Future work: - Shallow ocean impact. - Effect of continental shelf and beach profiles - Tsunami vs. blast damage radii for impacts close to populated areas - Larger asteroids below presumed threshold of global effects (Ø200 - 800m).

Tsunamis along the Peru-Chile Trench: analysing the effect of co-seismic deformation on tsunami inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M. A.

2016-12-01

Large earthquakes occurring along the near-shore subduction zones have the potential of causing noticeable onshore co-seismic deformations. The onshore uplift and subsidence caused by the earthquake rupture can change the coastal land morphology and, therefore, control the tsunami impact. Along the Peru-Chile trench, where the occurrence of massive tsunamigenic earthquakes is quite frequent, the earthquake faults have important extent beneath the continent which results in significant seismic-induced deformation of the coastal zones as testified by the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule event. In this study, we investigate the effects of the seismic-induced onshore coastal deformation on the tsunami inundation for the Mw8.3 Illapel and the Mw8.8 Maule Chilean earthquakes that happened on September 16th, 2015 and February 27th, 2010, respectively. The study involves the relation between the co-seismic deformation and the tsunami impact in the near-field. For both studied tsunami events, we numerically simulate the near-field tsunami inundation with and without taking into account the earthquake rupture-induced changes on the coastal land morphology. We compare the simulated tsunami inundation extent and run-up with the field-survey data collected in previous works for both the 2015 Illapel and the 2010 Maule tsunamis. We find that the onshore component of the co-seismic deformations of the two Chilean subduction earthquakes lead to significant changes in coastal land morphology that mainly affect the inundation close to the source, which, therefore, explain the concentrated tsunami impact observed. This work received funding from project ASTARTE - Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe, Grant 603839, FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, and project TSUMAPS - NEAM, agreement number ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26.

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: Successes in Tsunami Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R. I.

2012-12-01

Formed in 1995 by Congressional Action, the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program (NTHMP) provides the framework for tsunami preparedness activities in the United States. The Program consists of the 28 U.S. coastal states, territories, and commonwealths (STCs), as well as three Federal agencies: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Since its inception, the NTHMP has advanced tsunami preparedness in the United States through accomplishments in many areas of tsunami preparedness: - Coordination and funding of tsunami hazard analysis and preparedness activities in STCs; - Development and execution of a coordinated plan to address education and outreach activities (materials, signage, and guides) within its membership; - Lead the effort to assist communities in meeting National Weather Service (NWS) TsunamiReady guidelines through development of evacuation maps and other planning activities; - Determination of tsunami hazard zones in most highly threatened coastal communities throughout the country by detailed tsunami inundation studies; - Development of a benchmarking procedure for numerical tsunami models to ensure models used in the inundation studies meet consistent, NOAA standards; - Creation of a national tsunami exercise framework to test tsunami warning system response; - Funding community tsunami warning dissemination and reception systems such as sirens and NOAA Weather Radios; and, - Providing guidance to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers regarding warning dissemination and content. NTHMP activities have advanced the state of preparedness of United States coastal communities, and have helped save lives and property during recent tsunamis. Program successes as well as future plans, including maritime preparedness, are discussed.

Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

2017-07-01

In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

Tsunami deposits in the Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean) and implications for hazard assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, Raphael; Wassmer, Patrick; Roger, Jean; Loevenbruck, Anne

2010-05-01

Significant earthquakes occur along the north Algerian and Carboneras faults (e.g. Djijelli 1865, Zemmouri 2003) and they may generate tsunamis in the western Mediterranean Basin and Alboran Sea, where tsunami hazard are poorly documented. The coast of southern Spain and Balearic Islands are densely populated, with touristic areas and important harbors. The 2003 event generated a small tsunami in the Balearic Islands (ships were moved by oscillations during more than 2 hours in some harbors). Reicherter et al. (2009) found evidences of two past tsunamis in lagoon of the Cabo de Gata (near Almeria), which they ascribed to the 1522 earthquake and an earlier event (< 850 BP). Field surveys along the coasts of Mallorca and Menorca islands revealed few evidences of past tsunamis. Thin sandy layers with marine bioclasts, possibly deposited by tsunamis, were found in three areas at altitudes always lower than 2m. Boulder clusters were found along the southern coast of Mallorca, but they could have been deposited by storms as well. These investigations are realized in the framework of the MAREMOTI project, funded by the French ANR and leaded by the CEA - DASE. Reicherter, K., Becker-Heidmann, P., 2009. Tsunami deposits in the western Mediterranean: remains of the 1522 Almeria earthquake? Geological Society Special Publications, London, 316, 217-235.

Elders recall an earlier tsunami on Indian Ocean shores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kakar, Din Mohammad; Naeem, Ghazala; Usman, Abdullah; Hasan, Haider; Lohdi, Hira; Srinivasalu, Seshachalam; Andrade, Vanessa; Rajendran, C.P.; Naderi Beni, Abdolmajid; Hamzeh, Mohammad Ali; Hoffmann, Goesta; Al Balushi, Noora; Gale, Nora; Kodijat, Ardito; Fritz, Hermann M.; Atwater, Brian F.

2014-01-01

Ten years on, the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 still looms large in efforts to reduce coastal risk. The disaster has spurred worldwide advances in tsunami detection and warning, tsunami-risk assessment, and tsunami awareness [Satake, 2014]. Nearly a lifetime has passed since the northwestern Indian Ocean last produced a devastating tsunami. Documentation of this tsunami, in November 1945, was hindered by international instability in the wake of the Second World War and, in British India, by the approach of independence and partition. The parent earthquake, of magnitude 8.1, was widely recorded, and the tsunami registered on tide gauges, but intelligence reports and newspaper articles say little about inundation limits while permitting a broad range of catalogued death tolls. What has been established about the 1945 tsunami falls short of what's needed today for ground-truthing inundation models, estimating risk to enlarged populations, and anchoring awareness campaigns in local facts. Recent efforts to reduce coastal risk around the Arabian Sea include a project in which eyewitnesses to the 1945 tsunami were found and interviewed (Fig. 1), and related archives were gathered. Results are being made available through UNESCO's Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center in hopes of increasing scientific understanding and public awareness of the region's tsunami hazards.

What Causes Tsunamis?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mogil, H. Michael

2005-01-01

On December 26, 2004, a disastrous tsunami struck many parts of South Asia. The scope of this disaster has resulted in an outpouring of aid throughout the world and brought attention to the science of tsunamis. "Tsunami" means "harbor wave" in Japanese, and the Japanese have a long history of tsunamis. The word…

USGS scientists study sediment deposited by 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

2005-01-01

In January, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists traveled to countries on the Indian Ocean to study sediment deposited by the devastating tsunami of December 26, 2004. They hope to gain knowledge that will help them to identify ancient tsunami deposits in the geologic record—which extends much farther into the past than written records—and so compile a history of tsunamis that can be used to assess a region's future tsunami risk.

Tsunamis

MedlinePlus

A tsunami is a series of huge ocean waves created by an underwater disturbance. Causes include earthquakes, landslides, volcanic ... space that strike the surface of Earth. A tsunami can move hundreds of miles per hour in ...

Seismically generated tsunamis.

PubMed

Arcas, Diego; Segur, Harvey

2012-04-13

People around the world know more about tsunamis than they did 10 years ago, primarily because of two events: a tsunami on 26 December 2004 that killed more than 200,000 people around the shores of the Indian Ocean; and an earthquake and tsunami off the coast of Japan on 11 March 2011 that killed nearly 15,000 more and triggered a nuclear accident, with consequences that are still unfolding. This paper has three objectives: (i) to summarize our current knowledge of the dynamics of tsunamis; (ii) to describe how that knowledge is now being used to forecast tsunamis; and (iii) to suggest some policy changes that might protect people better from the dangers of future tsunamis.

Numerical experiment on tsunami deposit distribution process by using tsunami sediment transport model in historical tsunami event of megathrust Nankai trough earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, K.; Sugawara, D.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

A large flow caused by tsunami transports sediments from beach and forms tsunami deposits in land and coastal lakes. A tsunami deposit has been found in their undisturbed on coastal lakes especially. Okamura & Matsuoka (2012) found some tsunami deposits in the field survey of coastal lakes facing to the Nankai trough, and tsunami deposits due to the past eight Nankai Trough megathrust earthquakes they identified. The environment in coastal lakes is stably calm and suitable for tsunami deposits preservation compared to other topographical conditions such as plains. Therefore, there is a possibility that the recurrence interval of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis will be discussed with high resolution. In addition, it has been pointed out that small events that cannot be detected in plains could be separated finely (Sawai, 2012). Various aspects of past tsunami is expected to be elucidated, in consideration of topographical conditions of coastal lakes by using the relationship between the erosion-and-sedimentation process of the lake bottom and the external force of tsunami. In this research, numerical examination based on tsunami sediment transport model (Takahashi et al., 1999) was carried out on the site Ryujin-ike pond of Ohita, Japan where tsunami deposit was identified, and deposit migration analysis was conducted on the tsunami deposit distribution process of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Furthermore, examination of tsunami source conditions is possibly investigated by comparison studies of the observed data and the computation of tsunami deposit distribution. It is difficult to clarify details of tsunami source from indistinct information of paleogeographical conditions. However, this result shows that it can be used as a constraint condition of the tsunami source scale by combining tsunami deposit distribution in lakes with computation data.

Tsunami Inundation Mapping for the Upper East Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehranirad, B.; Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Callahan, J. A.; Shi, F.; Banihashemi, S.; Grilli, S. T.; Grilli, A. R.; Tajalli Bakhsh, T. S.; O'Reilly, C.

2014-12-01

We describe the modeling of tsunami inundation for the Upper US East Coast (USEC) from Ocean City, MD up to Nantucket, MA. and the development of inundation maps for use in emergency management and hazard analysis. Seven tsunami sources were used as initial conditions in order to develop inundation maps based on a Probable Maximum Tsunami approach. Of the seven, two coseismic sources were used; the first being a large earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench, in the well-known Caribbean Subduction Zone, and the second, an earthquake close to the Azores Gibraltar plate boundary known as the source of the biggest tsunami recorded in the North Atlantic Basin. In addition, four Submarine Mass Failure (SMF) sources located at different locations on the edge of the shelf break were simulated. Finally, the Cumbre Vieja Volcanic (CVV) collapse, located in the Canary Islands, was studied. For this presentation, we discuss modeling results for nearshore tsunami propagation and onshore inundation. A fully nonlinear Boussinesq model (FUNWAVE-TVD) is used to capture the characteristics of tsunami propagation, both nearshore and inland. In addition to the inundation line as the main result of this work, other tsunami quantities such as inundation depth and maximum velocities will be discussed for the whole USEC area. Moreover, a discussion of most vulnerable areas to a possible tsunami in the USEC will be provided. For example, during the inundation simulation process, it was observed that coastal environments with barrier islands are among the hot spots to be significantly impacted by a tsunami. As a result, areas like western Long Island, NY and Atlantic City, NJ are some of the locations that will get extremely affected in case of a tsunami occurrence in the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, the differences between various tsunami sources modeled here will be presented. Although inundation lines for different sources usually follow a similar pattern, there are clear distinctions between

Spatial Modeling of Tsunami Impact in Manado City using Geographic Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumaat, J. C.; Kandoli, S. T. B.; Laeloma, F.

2018-02-01

Manado City is a coastal area in the shape of a bay. Manado Bay is a water body that protrudes in the area of Manado City where the condition of this region is likely to have a tsunami threat. Manado Bay is home to several rivers such as Tondano River has a geological history of both land and sea. There are several active faults, such as in the sea, subduction of subplate in the north of the island, Mayu mountain plate, and Sangihe plate east of North Sulawesi. The purpose of this study is divided into two parts: General purpose is to describe GIS-based disaster mitigation that can be done to minimize disaster risk if Tsunami disaster occurs in coastal area of Manado Bay, while special purpose consists of 3 parts, namely: 1. mapping of zone- Tsunami vulnerability zone of Manado Bay; 2. mapping the distance and time of the scenario of the Manado Bay Tsunami evacuation route; 3. mapping of the number of buildings and roads exposed to the Manado Bay Tsunami. Data collection techniques use secondary data collection techniques. Secondary data comes from related institutions or institutions, libraries, or individual archives. The data collection is also continued by direct observation. Direct observation is meant by direct observation by using a checklist for secondary data adjustment and then the determination of coordinate point with Global Position System (GPS) at some tsunami location.

Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study - modernization of FEMA flood hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2006-01-01

FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study. Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State Agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University. Portland State University, Horning Geosciences, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. Draft copies and a briefing on the contents, results and recommendations of this document were provided to FEMA officials before final publication.

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to

Recent improvements in earthquake and tsunami monitoring in the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gee, L.; Green, D.; McNamara, D.; Whitmore, P.; Weaver, J.; Huang, P.; Benz, H.

2007-12-01

Following the catastrophic loss of life from the December 26, 2004, Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake and tsunami, the U.S. Government appropriated funds to improve monitoring along a major portion of vulnerable coastal regions in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean. Partners in this project include the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN), the Seismic Research Unit of the University of the West Indies, and other collaborating institutions in the Caribbean region. As part of this effort, the USGS is coordinating with Caribbean host nations to design and deploy nine new broadband and strong-motion seismic stations. The instrumentation consists of an STS-2 seismometer, an Episensor accelerometer, and a Q330 high resolution digitizer. Six stations are currently transmitting data to the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, where the data are redistributed to the NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers, regional monitoring partners, and the IRIS Data Management Center. Operating stations include: Isla Barro Colorado, Panama; Gun Hill Barbados; Grenville, Grenada; Guantanamo Bay, Cuba; Sabaneta Dam, Dominican Republic; and Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Three additional stations in Barbuda, Grand Turks, and Jamaica will be completed during the fall of 2007. These nine stations are affiliates of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) and complement existing GSN stations as well as regional stations. The new seismic stations improve azimuthal coverage, increase network density, and provide on-scale recording throughout the region. Complementary to this network, NOAA has placed Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations at sites in regions with a history of generating destructive tsunamis. Recently, NOAA completed deployment of 7 DART stations off the coasts of Montauk Pt, NY; Charleston, SC; Miami, FL; San Juan, Puerto Rico; New

The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongwei; Yuan, Ye; Xu, Zhiguo; Wang, Zongchen; Wang, Juncheng; Wang, Peitao; Gao, Yi; Hou, Jingming; Shan, Di

2017-06-01

The South China Sea (SCS) and its adjacent small basins including Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea are commonly identified as tsunami-prone region by its historical records on seismicity and tsunamis. However, quantification of tsunami hazard in the SCS region remained an intractable issue due to highly complex tectonic setting and multiple seismic sources within and surrounding this area. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is performed in the present study to evaluate tsunami hazard in the SCS region based on a brief review on seismological and tsunami records. 5 regional and local potential tsunami sources are tentatively identified, and earthquake catalogs are generated using Monte Carlo simulation following the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship for each zone. Considering a lack of consensus on magnitude upper bound on each seismic source, as well as its critical role in PTHA, the major concern of the present study is to define the upper and lower limits of tsunami hazard in the SCS region comprehensively by adopting different corner magnitudes that could be derived by multiple principles and approaches, including TGR regression of historical catalog, fault-length scaling, tectonic and seismic moment balance, and repetition of historical largest event. The results show that tsunami hazard in the SCS and adjoining basins is subject to large variations when adopting different corner magnitudes, with the upper bounds 2-6 times of the lower. The probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for specified return periods reveal much higher threat from Cotabato Trench and Sulawesi Trench in the Celebes Sea, whereas tsunami hazard received by the coasts of the SCS and Sulu Sea is relatively moderate, yet non-negligible. By combining empirical method with numerical study of historical tsunami events, the present PTHA results are tentatively validated. The correspondence lends confidence to our study. Considering the proximity of major sources to population-laden cities

Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Earthquake and Landslide Sources for Eastern Sicily, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Paparo, M. A.; Zaniboni, F.

2016-12-01

Eastern Sicily was theatre of the most damaging tsunamis that ever struck Italy, such as the 11 January 1693 and the 28 December 1908 tsunamis. Tectonic studies and paleotsunami investigations extended historical records of tsunami occurrence back of several thousands of years. Tsunami sources relevant for eastern Sicily are both local and remote, the latter being located in the Ionian Greece and in the Western Hellenic Arc. Here in 365 A.D. a large earthquake generated a tsunami that was seen in the whole eastern and central Mediterranean including the Sicilian coasts. The objective of this study is the evaluation of tsunami hazard along the coast of eastern Sicily, central Mediterranean, Italy via a scenario-based technique, which has been preferred to the PTHA approach because, when dealing with tsunamis induced by landslides, uncertainties are usually so large to undermine the PTHA results. Tsunamis of earthquake and landslide origin are taken into account for the entire coast of Sicily, from the Messina to the Siracusa provinces. Landslides are essentially local sources and can occur underwater along the unstable flanks of the Messina Straits or along the steep slopes of the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment. The method is based on a two-step procedure. After a preliminary step where very many earthquake and landslide sources are taken into account and tsunamis are computed on a low-resolution grid, the worst-case scenarios are selected and tsunamis are simulated on a finer-resolution grid allowing for a better calculation of coastal wave height and tsunami penetration. The final result of our study is given in the form of aggregate fields computed from individual scenarios. Also interesting is the contribution of the various tsunami sources in different localities along the coast. It is found that the places with the highest level of hazard are the low lands of La Playa south of Catania and of the Bay of Augusta, which is in agreement also with historical

Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

PubMed

Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

2015-01-07

Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria

A decade of mangrove recovery at affected area by the 2004 tsunami along coast of Banda Aceh city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onrizal; Mansor, M.

2018-03-01

Banda Aceh (BA) is the capital of Aceh Province, Indonesia. It was the most affected areas by the 2004 tsunami. Before the natural catastrophe, most of the BA mangroves disturbed by human activities and remaining mangroves were fragmented and had a low density of trees. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to calculate the impact of the tsunami on mangrove and subsequently to evaluate the mangrove recovery based on spatial and temporal analysis and ground truthing method within the period 11 years in intertidal areas of BA. Three regions of BA coastal areas were selected, namely Kuala Cangkoy, Gampong Jawa and Lambada coasts. Before the tsunami, the mangrove forests in BA were only 13.6% of BA coastlands and fragmented. Approximately 48.9% of the mangroves have destroyed due to the tsunami. The BA mangroves at 5 and 11 years after tsunami were 66.5% and 81.3% relative to the data before tsunami, respectively. It means that the BA is very vulnerable due to the future tsunami occur. Therefore, the mangrove restoration in BA needs to be improved and maintain based on green belt concept for coastal protection as well as productivity of estuarine ecosystem.

Improving satellite vulnerability assessment to untrackable orbital debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welty, Nathan; Schaefer, Frank; Rudolph, Martin; Destefanis, Roberto; Grassi, Lilith

2012-07-01

The projected growth in the untrackable orbital debris population will place an increased emphasis on satellite vulnerability assessments during both design and mission operations. This study presents an enhanced method for assessing satellite vulnerability to untrackable orbital debris that expands on traditional practices. By looking beyond structural penetration of the spacecraft, the method predicts the survivability of individual components and the associated degradation of system functionality resulting from untrackable debris impacts. A new risk assessment tool, the Particle Impact Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Tool (PIRAT), has been developed based on this method and is also presented here. It interfaces with both the NASA ORDEM2000 and ESA MASTER-2009 debris models and has been validated against the benchmark test cases from the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This study concludes with an example vulnerability assessment using PIRAT for a generic Earth observation satellite in a Sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit. The results illustrate the additional insight provided by this method that can be used to improve the robustness of future satellite designs and mitigate the overall mission risk posed by untrackable orbital debris.

Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, L.; Titov, V. V.; Chamberlin, C. D.

2009-12-01

The study describes the development, testing and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast and warning system. The model development process includes sensitivity studies of tsunami wave characteristics in the nearshore and inundation, for a range of model grid setups, resolutions and parameters. To demonstrate the process, four forecast models in Hawaii, at Hilo, Kahului, Honolulu, and Nawiliwili are described. The models were validated with fourteen historical tsunamis and compared with numerical results from reference inundation models of higher resolution. The accuracy of the modeled maximum wave height is greater than 80% when the observation is greater than 0.5 m; when the observation is below 0.5 m the error is less than 0.3 m. The error of the modeled arrival time of the first peak is within 3% of the travel time. The developed forecast models were further applied to hazard assessment from simulated magnitude 7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3 tsunamis based on subduction zone earthquakes in the Pacific. The tsunami hazard assessment study indicates that use of a seismic magnitude alone for a tsunami source assessment is inadequate to achieve such accuracy for tsunami amplitude forecasts. The forecast models apply local bathymetric and topographic information, and utilize dynamic boundary conditions from the tsunami source function database, to provide site- and event-specific coastal predictions. Only by combining a Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami-constrained tsunami magnitude with site-specific high-resolution models can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generation, deep ocean propagation, and coastal inundation. Wavelet analysis of the tsunami waves suggests the coastal tsunami frequency responses at different sites are dominated by the local bathymetry, yet they can be partially related to the locations of the tsunami sources. The study

High Resolution Tsunami Modelling for the Evaluation of Potential Risk Areas in Setubal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, João.; Silva, Adélio; Leitão, Paulo

2010-05-01

Modeling has a relevant role in today's natural hazards mitigation planning as it can cover a wide range of natural phenomena. This is also the case for an event like a tsunami. In order to support the urban planning or prepare emergency response plans it is of major importance to be able to properly evaluate the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipments. The use of high resolution models can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas which complemented with other data such as the type of buildings, location of prioritary equipments, etc., may effectively contribute to better identify the most vulnerable zones, define rescue and escape routes and adequate the emergency plans to the constraints associated to these type of events. In the framework of FP6 SCHEMA project these concepts are being applied to different test sites and a detailed evaluation of the vulnerability of buildings and people to a tsunami event is being evaluated. One of the sites selected it is located in Portugal, in the Atlantic coast, and it refers to Setúbal area which is located about 40 km south of Lisbon. Within this site two specific locations are being evaluated: one is the city of Setúbal (in the Sado estuary right margin) and the other is the Tróia peninsula (in the Sado estuary left margin). Setúbal city is a medium size town with about 114,000 inhabitants while Tróia is a touristic resort located in a shallow area with a high seasonal occupation and has the river Sado as one of the main sources of income to the city. Setúbal was one of the Portuguese villages that was seriously damaged by the of 1755 earthquake event. The 1755 earthquake, also known as the Great Lisbon Earthquake, took place on 1 November 1755, the catholic holiday of All Saints, around 09:30 AM. The earthquake was followed by a tsunami and fires which caused a huge destruction of Lisboa and Setúbal In the framework of the present study, a detailed evaluation of

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

Marin Tsunami (video)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Filmed and edited by: Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine

2010-01-01

Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. The Marin coast could be struck by a tsunami. Whether you live in Marin County, visit the beaches, or rent or own a home near the coast, it is vital to understand the tsunami threat and take preparation seriously. Marin Tsunami tells the story of what several West Marin communities are doing to be prepared. This video was produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Marin Office of Emergency Services.

Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2002-01-01

factor of 3 or more. These results indicate that there is substantially more variation in the local tsunami wave field derived from the inherent complexity subduction zone earthquakes than predicted by a simple elastic dislocation model. Probabilistic methods that take into account variability in earthquake rupture processes are likely to yield more accurate assessments of tsunami hazards.

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Risi, Raffaele; Goda, Katsuichiro

2017-08-01

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decision-making regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

Quantifying 10 years of Improvements in Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; McNamara, D. E.; Saurel, J. M.

2014-12-01

The magnitude-9.3 Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake of December 26, 2004, increased global awareness to the destructive hazard of earthquakes and tsunamis. Post event assessments of global coastline vulnerability highlighted the Caribbean as a region of high hazard and risk and that it was poorly monitored. Nearly 100 tsunamis have been reported for the Caribbean region and Adjacent Regions in the past 500 years and continue to pose a threat for its nations, coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic seaboard of North and South America. Significant efforts to improve monitoring capabilities have been undertaken since this time including an expansion of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Global Seismographic Network (GSN) (McNamara et al., 2006) and establishment of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG) for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS). The minimum performance standards it recommended for initial earthquake locations include: 1) Earthquake detection within 1 minute, 2) Minimum magnitude threshold = M4.5, and 3) Initial hypocenter error of <30 km. In this study, we assess current compliance with performance standards and model improvements in earthquake and tsunami monitoring capabilities in the Caribbean region since the first meeting of the UNESCO ICG-Caribe EWS in 2006. The three measures of network capability modeled in this study are: 1) minimum Mw detection threshold; 2) P-wave detection time of an automatic processing system and; 3) theoretical earthquake location uncertainty. By modeling three measures of seismic network capability, we can optimize the distribution of ICG-Caribe EWS seismic stations and select an international network that will be contributed from existing real-time broadband national networks in the region. Sea level monitoring improvements both offshore and

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2018-04-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2017-11-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2017-12-01

This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Mangrove forest against dyke-break-induced tsunami on rapidly subsiding coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Hiroshi; Mikami, Takahito; Fujii, Daisuke; Esteban, Miguel; Kurobe, Shota

2016-07-01

Thin coastal dykes typically found in developing countries may suddenly collapse due to rapid land subsidence, material ageing, sea-level rise, high wave attack, earthquakes, landslides, or a collision with vessels. Such a failure could trigger dam-break tsunami-type flooding, or "dyke-break-induced tsunami", a possibility which has so far been overlooked in the field of coastal disaster science and management. To analyse the potential consequences of one such flooding event caused by a dyke failure, a hydrodynamic model was constructed based on the authors' field surveys of a vulnerable coastal location in Jakarta, Indonesia. In a 2 m land subsidence scenario - which is expected to take place in the study area after only about 10-20 years - the model results show that the floodwaters rapidly rise to a height of nearly 3 m, resembling the flooding pattern of earthquake-induced tsunamis. The depth-velocity product criterion suggests that many of the narrow pedestrian paths behind the dyke could experience strong flows, which are far greater than the safe limits that would allow pedestrian evacuation. A couple of alternative scenarios were also considered to investigate how such flood impacts could be mitigated by creating a mangrove belt in front of the dyke as an additional safety measure. The dyke-break-induced tsunamis, which in many areas are far more likely than regular earthquake tsunamis, cannot be overlooked and thus should be considered in disaster management and urban planning along the coasts of many developing countries.