Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussi, Gianbattista; Dadson, Simon J.; Prudhomme, Christel; Whitehead, Paul G.

2016-11-01

The effects of climate change and variability on river flows have been widely studied. However the impacts of such changes on sediment transport have received comparatively little attention. In part this is because modelling sediment production and transport processes introduces additional uncertainty, but it also results from the fact that, alongside the climate change signal, there have been and are projected to be significant changes in land cover which strongly affect sediment-related processes. Here we assess the impact of a range of climatic variations and land covers on the River Thames catchment (UK). We first calculate a response of the system to climatic stressors (average precipitation, average temperature and increase in extreme precipitation) and land-cover stressors (change in the extent of arable land). To do this we use an ensemble of INCA hydrological and sediment behavioural models. The resulting system response, which reveals the nature of interactions between the driving factors, is then compared with climate projections originating from the UKCP09 assessment (UK Climate Projections 2009) to evaluate the likelihood of the range of projected outcomes. The results show that climate and land cover each exert an individual control on sediment transport. Their effects vary depending on the land use and on the level of projected climate change. The suspended sediment yield of the River Thames in its lowermost reach is expected to change by -4% (-16% to +13%, confidence interval, p = 0.95) under the A1FI emission scenario for the 2030s, although these figures could be substantially altered by an increase in extreme precipitation, which could raise the suspended sediment yield up to an additional +10%. A 70% increase in the extension of the arable land is projected to increase sediment yield by around 12% in the lowland reaches. A 50% reduction is projected to decrease sediment yield by around 13%.

Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK.

PubMed

Medlock, Jolyon M; Leach, Steve A

2015-06-01

During the early part of the 21st century, an unprecedented change in the status of vector-borne disease in Europe has occurred. Invasive mosquitoes have become widely established across Europe, with subsequent transmission and outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya virus. Malaria has re-emerged in Greece, and West Nile virus has emerged throughout parts of eastern Europe. Tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, continue to increase, or, in the case of tick-borne encephalitis and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses, have changed their geographical distribution. From a veterinary perspective, the emergence of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses show that northern Europe is equally susceptible to transmission of vector-borne disease. These changes are in part due to increased globalisation, with intercontinental air travel and global shipping transport creating new opportunities for invasive vectors and pathogens. However, changes in vector distributions are being driven by climatic changes and changes in land use, infrastructure, and the environment. In this Review, we summarise the risks posed by vector-borne diseases in the present and the future from a UK perspective, and assess the likely effects of climate change and, where appropriate, climate-change adaptation strategies on vector-borne disease risk in the UK. Lessons from the outbreaks of West Nile virus in North America and chikungunya in the Caribbean emphasise the need to assess future vector-borne disease risks and prepare contingencies for future outbreaks. Ensuring that adaptation strategies for climate change do not inadvertently exacerbate risks should be a primary focus for decision makers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TOPICAL REVIEW: Climate change, ozone depletion and the impact on ultraviolet exposure of human skin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffey, Brian

2004-01-01

For 30 years there has been concern that anthropogenic damage to the Earth's stratospheric ozone layer will lead to an increase of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the Earth's surface, with a consequent adverse impact on human health, especially to the skin. More recently, there has been an increased awareness of the interactions between ozone depletion and climate change (global warming), which could also impact on human exposure to terrestrial UV. The most serious effect of changing UV exposure of human skin is the potential rise in incidence of skin cancers. Risk estimates of this disease associated with ozone depletion suggest that an additional peak incidence of 5000 cases of skin cancer per year in the UK would occur around the mid-part of this century. Climate change, which is predicted to lead to an increased frequency of extreme temperature events and high summer temperatures, will become more frequent in the UK. This could impact on human UV exposure by encouraging people to spend more time in the sun. Whilst future social trends remain uncertain, it is likely that over this century behaviour associated with climate change, rather than ozone depletion, will be the largest determinant of sun exposure, and consequent impact on skin cancer, of the UK population.

Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

PubMed

Hajat, Shakoor; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd

2014-07-01

The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Assessing the Role of Climate Variability on Liver Fluke Risk in the UK Through Mechanistic Hydro-Epidemiological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

2016-12-01

Liver fluke is a flatworm parasite infecting grazing animals worldwide. In the UK, it causes considerable production losses to cattle and sheep industries and costs farmers millions of pounds each year due to reduced growth rates and lower milk yields. Large part of the parasite life-cycle takes place outside of the host, with its survival and development strongly controlled by climatic and hydrologic conditions. Evidence of climate-driven changes in the distribution and seasonality of fluke disease already exists, as the infection is increasingly expanding to new areas and becoming a year-round problem. Therefore, it is crucial to assess current and potential future impacts of climate variability on the disease to guide interventions at the farm scale and mitigate risk. Climate-based fluke risk models have been available since the 1950s, however, they are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data, and thus are unlikely to be robust for simulating risk under changing conditions. Moreover, they are not dynamic, but estimate risk over large regions in the UK based on monthly average climate conditions, so they do not allow investigating the effects of climate variability for supporting farmers' decisions. In this study, we introduce a mechanistic model for fluke, which represents habitat suitability for disease development at 25m resolution with a daily time step, explicitly linking the parasite life-cycle to key hydro-climate conditions. The model is used on a case study in the UK and sensitivity analysis is performed to better understand the role of climate variability on the space-time dynamics of the disease, while explicitly accounting for uncertainties. Comparisons are presented with experts' knowledge and a widely used empirical model.

Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

PubMed

Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

2002-07-15

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

Health impacts of climate change and health and social inequalities in the UK.

PubMed

Paavola, Jouni

2017-12-05

This article examines how social and health inequalities shape the health impacts of climate change in the UK, and what the implications are for climate change adaptation and health care provision. The evidence generated by the other articles of the special issue were interpreted using social justice reasoning in light of additional literature, to draw out the key implications of health and social inequalities for health outcomes of climate change. Exposure to heat and cold, air pollution, pollen, food safety risks, disruptions to access to and functioning of health services and facilities, emerging infections and flooding are examined as the key impacts of climate change influencing health outcomes. Age, pre-existing medical conditions and social deprivation are found to be the key (but not only) factors that make people vulnerable and to experience more adverse health outcomes related to climate change impacts. In the future, climate change, aging population and decreasing public spending on health and social care may aggravate inequality of health outcomes related to climate change. Health education and public preparedness measures that take into account differential exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of different groups help address health and social inequalities to do with climate change. Adaptation strategies based on individual preparedness, action and behaviour change may aggravate health and social inequalities due to their selective uptake, unless they are coupled with broad public information campaigns and financial support for undertaking adaptive measures.

Sensitivity of bud burst in key tree species in the UK to recent climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abernethy, Rachel; Cook, Sally; Hemming, Deborah; McCarthy, Mark

2017-04-01

Analysing the relationship between the changing climate of the UK and the spatial and temporal distribution of spring bud burst plays an important role in understanding ecosystem functionality and predicting future phenological trends. The location and timing of bud burst of eleven species of trees alongside climatic factors such as, temperature, precipitation and hours of sunshine (photoperiod) were used to investigate: i. which species' bud burst timing experiences the greatest impact from a changing climate, ii. which climatic factor has the greatest influence on the timing of bud burst, and iii. whether the location of bud burst is influenced by climate variability. Winter heatwave duration was also analysed as part of an investigation into the relationship between temperature trends of a specific winter period and the following spring events. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical analysis tools were used to visualise spatial patterns and to analyse the phenological and climate data through regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests. Where there were areas that showed a strong positive or negative relationship between phenology and climate, satellite imagery was used to calculate a Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a Leaf Area Index (LAI) to further investigate the relationships found. It was expected that in the north of the UK, where bud burst tends to occur later in the year than in the south, that the bud bursts would begin to occur earlier due to increasing temperatures and increased hours of sunshine. However, initial results show that for some species, the bud burst timing tends to remain or become later in the year. Interesting results will be found when investigating the statistical significance between the changing location of the bud bursts and each climatic factor.

A Water Grid for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leathard, A.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenically aggravated climate change associated with intensive expansion of the global economy has increased the demand for water whilst simultaneously altering natural variability in its distribution, straining water resources unsustainably and inequitably in many parts of the world, increasing drought risk, and encouraging decision-makers to reconsider the security of water supply. Indeed, in the absence of additional resource development, contemporary planning forecasts imply increased water stress across much of the United Kingdom. The regulatory authorities of the UK currently promote increased efficiency of water delivery and consumption combined with a portfolio of financial instruments as a means of reducing water stress, maintaining present levels of consumer service without significant further exploitation of the environment. Despite an increasingly sophisticated understanding of climate change and its effects, significant uncertainty remains in the quantification of its impacts on the water sector, and questions persist as to the effectiveness of such demand management measures compared to that of more traditional infrastructure improvements. Faced with possible futures provided for by detrimentally over-stressed resources, what opportunities remain for future strategic development in the UK? Is there a single national strategy that is both politically and socially acceptable? This ongoing study aims to evolve robust national adaptation strategies by quantifying the projected impacts of climate change across mainland UK using multi-model and perturbed-physics ensembles of projected future climate, encapsulating uncertainties in a scenario-driven integrated water resources model incorporating socio-economic elements.

CHP -- A revolution in the making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Green, D.

1999-07-01

Liberalization, globalization, and particularly climate change are changing energy thinking. In the future, climate change will be tackled by improved energy efficiency and carbon neutral sources of energy, but much more could be done today by the more widespread use of CHP. CHP has made reasonably good progress in the UK and Europe, due to energy industry liberalization and the widespread availability of gas. But the pursuit of sustainability objectives requires government intervention into liberalized markets. While the current UK Government is a strong supporter of CHP, major opportunities to develop CHP were missed in favor of less efficient CCGTmore » power stations over the last decade. The two critical policy issues in the UK now are the proposed tax on the business use of energy and the current reform of electricity trading arrangements. Both could impact favorably on the development of CHP. The UK CHP Association, COGEN Europe and the International Cogeneration Alliance continue to press the case for CHP.« less

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Fodor, Nándor; Foskolos, Andreas; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Moorby, Jon M; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

Potential impact of climate change on emerging vector-borne and other infections in the UK.

PubMed

Baylis, Matthew

2017-12-05

Climate is one of several causes of disease emergence. Although half or more of infectious diseases are affected by climate it appears to be a relatively infrequent cause of human disease emergence. Climate mostly affects diseases caused by pathogens that spend part of their lifecycle outside of the host, exposed to the environment. The most important routes of transmission of climate sensitive diseases are by arthropod (insect and tick) vectors, in water and in food. Given the sensitivity of many diseases to climate, it is very likely that at least some will respond to future climate change. In the case of vector-borne diseases this response will include spread to new areas. Several vector-borne diseases have emerged in Europe in recent years; these include vivax malaria, West Nile fever, dengue fever, Chikungunya fever, leishmaniasis, Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. The vectors of these diseases are mosquitoes, sand flies and ticks. The UK has endemic mosquito species capable of transmitting malaria and probably other pathogens, and ticks that transmit Lyme disease. The UK is also threatened by invasive mosquito species known to be able to transmit West Nile, dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and sand flies that spread leishmaniasis. Warmer temperatures in the future will increase the suitability of the UK's climate for these invasive species, and increase the risk that they may spread disease. While much attention is on invasive species, it is important to recognize the threat presented by native species too. Proposed actions to reduce the future impact of emerging vector-borne diseases in the UK include insect control activity at points of entry of vehicles and certain goods, wider surveillance for mosquitoes and sand flies, research into the threat posed by native species, increased awareness of the medical profession of the threat posed by specific diseases, regular risk assessments, and increased preparedness for the occurrence of a disease emergency.

Implications of shale gas exploitation for UK climate change targets under a production-based accounting system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turk, J.; Reay, D.; Haszeldine, S.

2017-12-01

The shale gas boom in the USA has seemingly decreased the greenhouse gas intensity of electricity generation in the USA over the last decade. The United Kingdom is supporting its own shale gas industry to increase its own domestic energy supply. The UK's climate change policy is underpinned by defined national carbon budgets periods. The UK has met Carbon Budget 1 (2008 - 2012) and is likely to meet the second and third carbon budgets (2013 - 2022). There is a projected shortcoming in the fourth carbon budget (2023 - 2027). This shortfall may be increased as the UK pursues a domestic shale gas industry. Under the current production-based GHG accounting system, the UK is incentivized to import natural gas rather than produce it domestically. If the projected gas supply were to be met by UK shale gas, we project additional greenhouse gas emissions which would need to be accommodated during Carbon Budget periods 3 - 6. Additionally, natural gas electricity generation will contribute to sustaining grid electricity emissions during the same time period within the traded European Union emissions cap.

Day One Sustainability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orr, John; Ibell, Timothy; Evernden, Mark; Darby, Antony

2015-01-01

Emissions reductions targets for the UK set out in the Climate Change Act for the period to 2050 will only be achieved with significant changes to the built environment, which is currently estimated to account for 50% of the UK's carbon emissions. The socio-technological nature of Civil Engineering means that this field is uniquely placed to lead…

2012 NEHA/UL sabbatical report: vulnerability to potential impacts of climate change: adaptation and risk communication strategies for environmental health practitioners in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut

2014-04-01

Climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning have become increasingly important to environmental health practitioners (EHPs). The NEHA/UL Sabbatical Exchange Award allowed me to investigate how EHPs in the UK are incorporating climate change planning and communication strategies into their work. Projected climate change risks in the UK include flooding, extreme heat, water shortages, severe weather, decreased air quality, and changes in vectors. Despite public perception and funding challenges, all the local government representatives with whom I met incorporated climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning into their work. The mandated Community Risk Register serves as a key planning document developed by each local government authority and is a meaningful way to look at potential climate change health risks. Adaptation and sustainability were common threads in my meetings. These often took the form of "going green" with transportation, energy efficiency, conserving resources, and building design because the efforts made sense monetarily as future cost savings. Communication strategies targeted a variety of audiences (EHPs, non-EHP government employees, politicians, and the general public) using a broad range of communication channels (professional training, lobbying, conferences and fairs, publications, print materials, Internet resources, social media, billboards, etc).

Where the Rubber Hits the Road: The Politics and Science of Climate Change in Congress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppes, M.

2004-12-01

Scientific understanding of the magnitude and rate of global and regional climate change is being actively communicated to Capitol Hill, however this information is being framed within the political debate that has brought climate change policy in the U.S. to a practical standstill. Efforts by scientists to communicate to Congress advances in the understanding of climate change have been obscured by policy-makers, lobbyists and some scientists themselves, into two polarized camps: those that who claim that current climate change is insignificant and/or of non-anthropogenic origin, and those who predict irreversible climate change in the near future and advocate a precautionary approach to anthropogenic contributions. As a science policy advisor to a Member of Congress active in the climate policy debate over the past year, I have observed firsthand most of the scientific information on climate change presented to Congress being partitioned into these camps. The political debate surrounding climate change policy has centered on the policymakers' understanding of scientific uncertainty. Communication by researchers of the definition of risk and uncertainty in climate science, in the language and framework of the legislative debate, is of utmost importance in order for policymakers to effectively understand and utilize science in the decision-making process. A comparison with the recent white paper on climate change policy developed by the UK Science and Technology council and currently adopted by UK policymakers demonstrates the importance of a general public understanding of the existing magnitude of climate change, uncertainties in the rate of future climate variability and its associated economic and social costs. Communication of research results on climate change has been most effective in the policy debate when framed within the context of economic or security risks in the short term. Other effective methods include communicating local and regional climate scenarios and associated probabilities to individual policy-makers, as is currently being utilized to promote sponsorship of the Climate Stewardship Act in Congress.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

PubMed Central

Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). PMID:23349829

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Dye, Stephen R; Fernandes, Jose A; Frölicher, Thomas L; Pinnegar, John K; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W L

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

Assessing the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the river water quality in an integrated urban wastewater system in the UK.

PubMed

Astaraie-Imani, Maryam; Kapelan, Zoran; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2012-12-15

Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Water Grid for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leathard, A.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2009-12-01

Anthropogenically aggravated climate change associated with intensive expansion of the global economy has increased the demand for water whilst simultaneously altering natural variability in its distribution, straining water resources unsustainably and inequitably in many parts of the world, increasing drought risk, and encouraging decision-makers to reconsider the security of water supply. Indeed, in the absence of additional resource development, contemporary planning forecasts imply increased water stress across much of the United Kingdom. Until recently the regulatory authorities of the UK promoted increased efficiency of water delivery and consumption combined with a portfolio of financial instruments as a means of reducing water stress, maintaining present levels of consumer service without significant further exploitation of the environment. However, despite an increasingly sophisticated understanding of climate change and its effects, significant uncertainty remains in the quantification of its impacts on the water sector, and questions persist as to the effectiveness of such demand management measures compared to that of more traditional infrastructure improvements. Faced with possible futures provided for by detrimentally over-stressed resources, what opportunities remain for future strategic development in the UK? Is there a single national strategy that is both politically and socially acceptable? Do the benefits of national water infrastructure projects outweigh their costs? This ongoing study aims to evolve robust national adaptation strategies by quantifying the projected impacts of climate change across mainland UK using multi-model and perturbed-physics ensembles of projected future climate, encapsulating uncertainties in a scenario-driven integrated water resources model incorporating socio-economic elements.

Windstorms and Insured Loss in the UK: Modelling the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewston, R.; Dorling, S.; Viner, D.

2006-12-01

Worldwide, the costs of catastrophic weather events have increased dramatically in recent years, with average annual insured losses rising from a negligible level in 1950 to over $10bn in 2005 (Munich Re 2006). When losses from non-catastrophic weather related events are included this figure is doubled. A similar trend is exhibited in the UK with claims totalling over £6bn for the period 1998-2003, more than twice the value for the previous five years (Dlugolecki 2004). More than 70% of this loss is associated with storms. Extratropical cyclones are the main source of wind damage in the UK. In this research, a windstorm model is constructed to simulate patterns of insured loss associated with wind damage in the UK. Observed daily maximum wind gust speeds and a variety of socioeconomic datasets are utilised in a GIS generated model, which is verified against actual domestic property insurance claims data from two major insurance providers. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme events which are anticipated to accompany climate change in the UK will have a direct affect on general insurance, with the greatest impact expected to be on property insurance (Dlugolecki 2004). A range of experiments will be run using Regional Climate Model output data, in conjunction with the windstorm model, to simulate possible future losses resulting from climate change, assuming no alteration to the vulnerability of the building stock. Losses for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070- 2100 will be simulated under the various IPCC emissions scenarios. Munich Re (2006). Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2005. Munich, Munich Re: 52. Dlugolecki, A. (2004). A Changing Climate for Insurance - A summary report for Chief Executives and Policymakers, Association of British Insurers

Climate Change? When? Where?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boon, Helen

2009-01-01

Regional Australian students were surveyed to explore their understanding and knowledge of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and climate change. Results were compared with a parallel study undertaken in 1991 in a regional UK city. The comparison was conducted to investigate whether more awareness and understanding of these issues is…

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK.

PubMed

Andersson, Anna K; Chapman, Lee

2011-01-01

Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

It's in Our Hands Now

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ward, Jane

2010-01-01

The world's political leaders failed to agree a fair, ambitious and legally binding accord that would protect the planet from catastrophic global warming at the United Nations' Copenhagen conference on climate change. This makes grassroots action all the more essential to save the world from devastating climate change. The UK Government championed…

Simulating the Risk of Liver Fluke Infection using a Mechanistic Hydro-epidemiological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, Ludovica; Dunne, Toby; Rose, Hannah; Walker, Josephine; Morgan, Eric; Vickerman, Peter; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Liver Fluke (Fasciola hepatica) is a common parasite found in livestock and responsible for considerable economic losses throughout the world. Risk of infection is strongly influenced by climatic and hydrological conditions, which characterise the host environment for parasite development and transmission. Despite on-going control efforts, increases in fluke outbreaks have been reported in recent years in the UK, and have been often attributed to climate change. Currently used fluke risk models are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data. However, hydro-climate conditions are becoming increasingly non-stationary due to climate change and direct anthropogenic impacts such as land use change, making empirical models unsuitable for simulating future risk. In this study we introduce a mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Liver Fluke, which explicitly simulates habitat suitability for disease development in space and time, representing the parasite life cycle in connection with key environmental conditions. The model is used to assess patterns of Liver Fluke risk for two catchments in the UK under current and potential future climate conditions. Comparisons are made with a widely used empirical model employing different datasets, including data from regional veterinary laboratories. Results suggest that mechanistic models can achieve adequate predictive ability and support adaptive fluke control strategies under climate change scenarios.

Erratum: Erratum to: Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bal, Prasanta Kumar; Ramachandran, Andimuthu; Palanivelu, Kandasamy; Thirumurugan, Perumal; Geetha, Rajadurai; Bhaskaran, Balakrishnan

2016-11-01

The author "Bhaski Bhaskaran" and his affiliation "Fujitsu Laboratory of Europe, Middlesex, UK" should be replaced by "Balakrishnan Bhaskaran", "Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe Limited, Hayes Park, Middlesex, UK", respectively. The corrected name and affiliation are shown in this erratum.

Strengthening insurance partnerships in the face of climate change - Insights from an agent-based model of flood insurance in the UK.

PubMed

Crick, Florence; Jenkins, Katie; Surminski, Swenja

2018-04-25

Multisectoral partnerships are increasingly cited as a mechanism to deliver and improve disaster risk management. Yet, partnerships are not a panacea and more research is required to understand the role that they can play in disaster risk management and particularly disaster risk reduction. This paper investigates how partnerships can incentivise flood risk reduction by focusing on the UK public-private partnership on flood insurance. Developing the right flood insurance arrangements to incentivise flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change is a key challenge. In the face of rising flood risks due to climate change and socio-economic development insurance partnerships can no longer afford to focus only on the risk transfer function. However, while expectations of the insurance industry have traditionally been high when it comes to flood risk management, the insurance industry alone will not provide the solution to the challenge of rising risks. The case of flood insurance in the UK illustrates this: even national government and industry together cannot fully address these risks and other actors need to be involved to create strong incentives for risk reduction. Using an agent-based model focused on surface water flood risk in London we analyse how other partners could strengthen the insurance partnership by reducing flood risk and thus helping to maintain affordable insurance premiums. Our findings are relevant for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and also internationally. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Moorby, Jon M.; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H.

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years. PMID:29738581

Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolff, Eric

2014-01-01

The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy of…

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to UK autumn flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí; Stott, Peter; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles

2010-05-01

Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing[1]. Yet climate models typically used for studying the attribution problem do not resolve weather at scales causing damage[2]. Here we present the first multi-step study that attributes increasing risk of a damaging regional weather-related event to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The event was the UK flooding of October and November 2000, occurring during the wettest autumn in England & Wales since records began in 1766[3] and inundating several river catchments[4]. Nearly 10,000 properties were flooded and transport services and power supplies severely disrupted, with insured losses estimated at £1.3bn[5,6]. Though the floods were deemed a ‘wake up call' to the impacts of climate change[7], anthropogenic drivers cannot be blamed for this individual event: but they could be blamed for changing its risk[8,9]. Indeed, typically quoted thermodynamic arguments do suggest increased probability of precipitation extremes under anthropogenic warming[10]. But these arguments are too simple[11,12,13] to fully account for the complex weather[4,14] associated with the flooding. Instead we use a Probabilistic Event Attribution framework, to rigorously estimate the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to England & Wales Autumn 2000 flood risk. This involves comparing an unprecedented number of daily river runoff realisations for the region, under Autumn 2000 scenarios both with and without the emissions. These realisations are produced using publicly volunteered distributed computing power to generate several thousand seasonal forecast resolution climate model simulations[15,16] that are then fed into a precipitation-runoff model[17,18]. Autumn 2000 flooding is characterised by realisations exceeding the highest daily river runoff for that period, derived from the observational-based ERA-40 re-anaylsis[19]. We find that our climate model adequately represents autumn synoptic conditions, and that our precipitation-runoff model adequately represents England & Wales runoff variability. Moreover, our model results indicate 20th century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly (at the 10% level) increased England & Wales flood risk in Autumn 2000 and most probably about trebled it. This pilot demonstration of the Probabilistic Event Attribution framework forms the foundation for an ongoing long-term project to provide operational attribution statements for extreme weather-related events worldwide. References: -------------- 1. Hegerl, G.C. et al. Understanding and attributing climate change. In Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [eds Solomon, S. et al.] (Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA) (2007). 2. Stott, P.A. et al. Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, submitted. 3. Alexander, L.V. & Jones, P.D. Updated precipitation series for the U.K. and discussion of recent extremes. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 1, 142-150 (2001). 4. Marsh, T.J. & Dale, M. The UK floods of 2000-2001 : A hydrometeorological appraisal. J. Chartered Inst. Water Environ. Manage. 16, 180-188 (2002). 5. Association of British Insurers. Flooding: A partnership approach to protecting people. http://www.abi.org.uk/Display/File/301/Flooding_-_A_Partnership_Approach_to_Protecting_People.doc (2001). 6. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. To what degree can the October/November 2000 flood events be attributed to climate change? DEFRA FD2304 Final Report, London, 36 pp. (2001). 7. Environment Agency. Lessons learned: Autumn 2000 floods. Environment Agency, Bristol, 56 pp. (2001). 8. Allen, M.R. Liability for climate change. Nature 421, 891-892 (2003). 9. Stone, D.A. & Allen, M.R. The end-to-end attribution problem: From emissions to impacts. Climatic Change 71, 303-318 (2005). 10. Allen, M.R. & Ingram, W.I. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419, 224-232 (2002). 11. Pall, P., Allen, M.R. & Stone, D.A. Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming. Clim. Dyn. 28, 351-363 (2007). 12. Lenderink, G. & Van Meijgaard, E. Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nature Geosci. 1, 511-514 (2008). 13. O'Gorman, P.A. & Schneider, T. The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 14773-14777 (2009). 14. Blackburn, M. & Hoskins, B.J. Atmospheric variability and extreme autumn rainfall in the UK. http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~mike/autumn2000.html (2001). 15. Allen, M.R. Do-it-yourself climate prediction. Nature 401, 642 (1999). 16. Massey, N. et al. Data access and analysis with distributed federated data servers in climateprediction.net. Adv. Geosci. 8, 49-56 (2006). 17. Lohmann, D., Raschke, E., Nijssen, B. & Lettenmaier, D.P. Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 43, 131-141 (1998). 18. Lohmann, D., Raschke, E., Nijssen, B. & Lettenmaier, D.P. Regional scale hydrology: II. Application of the VIC-2L model to the Weser river, Germany. Hydrol. Sci. J. 43, 143-158 (1998). 19. Uppala, S.M. et al. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 131, 2961-3012 (2005).

Crossing the river: Developing a strategy to support understanding of uncertainty within probabilistic climate projections.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walton, P.; Lamb, R.

2010-09-01

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) was established by government in 1997 to support the UK's engagement with becoming better adapted to a changing climate. As the lead organisation in the UK on climate change adaptation, UKCIP oversaw the development of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) which were launched in June 2009 providing, for the first time, probabilistic climate projections for the UK. As with previous generations of UKCIP climate scenarios, they were freely accessible and intended for a whole spectrum of users, from technical experts to a lay audience. . Prior to the launch of UKCP09 it was acknowledged that users would need support in understanding key concepts, such as the uncertainty inherent in the projections, to be able to use them appropriately. The user support strategy was therefore developed. It is founded on robust pedagogical principles and draws on the latest thinking on public understanding of science (PUS) that places the user at the centre of the communication process. The adopted approach first identifies profiles of the key users of the climate projections and the ways in which they would use and access the data. Based on these profiles it is possible to identify a range of mechanisms that allow the user to engage with understanding the projections in different ways and situations including lectures, workshops and online learning. Within this blended strategy an exercise was developed specifically to support users' understanding of the concept of uncertainty within the probabilistic climate projections. The ‘Crossing the River' exercise encourages the participants to actively consider the nature of information they are using, and how it could be applied in a specific decision. Reflection and discussion are key elements in supporting the users' understanding of the concept and allowing them to apply the principles in the exercise to their own context. Their reflection is facilitated through a range of mechanisms that provide social and personal spaces and is guided by the communicator. The exercise has been used successfully with a broad range of users (from government officers to environmental managers) in groups ranging from small community events to large corporate conferences. Feedback has shown that the majority of people who completed the exercise had a better understanding of the concept of uncertainty within the probabilistic climate projections as a result. We are now working to create an online version that can be freely accessed by users along with other resources that develop understanding of other key concepts associated with UKCP09 and the broader climate change adaptation agenda. This paper evaluates the development and application of the user support strategy and provides a practical illustration of how it can be used within a face-to-face group setting and also as an online resource.

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara

2018-01-01

The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

Universities UK: Manifesto for Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Universities UK, 2010

2010-01-01

The challenges that the UK faces today are global and they require world-class solutions. With continued support and investment from the Government, higher education will play a central role in meeting those challenges. Tomorrow's knowledge-based economy will demand a flexible, diverse and well educated workforce. Climate change and rapid…

Loss of adaptive variation during evolutionary responses to climate change.

PubMed

Buckley, James; Bridle, Jon R

2014-10-01

The changes in species' geographical distribution demanded by climate change are often critically limited by the availability of key interacting species. In such cases, species' persistence will depend on the rapid evolution of biotic interactions. Understanding evolutionary limits to such adaptation is therefore crucial for predicting biological responses to environmental change. The recent poleward range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly has been associated with a shift in female preference from its main host plant, rockrose (Cistaceae), onto Geraniaceae host plants throughout its new distribution. Using reciprocal transplants onto natural host plants across the UK range, we demonstrate reduced fitness of females from recently colonised Geraniaceae-dominated habitat when moved to ancestral rockrose habitats. By contrast, individuals from ancestral rockrose habitats show no reduction in fitness on Geraniaceae. Climate-driven range expansion in this species is therefore associated with the rapid evolution of biotic interactions and a significant loss of adaptive variation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK.

PubMed

Wilby, R L; Orr, H G; Hedger, M; Forrow, D; Blackmore, M

2006-12-01

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.

Drought variability in six catchments in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok-Pan, Chun; Onof, Christian; Wheater, Howard

2010-05-01

Drought is fundamentally related to consistent low precipitation levels. Changes in global and regional drought patterns are suggested by numerous recent climate change studies. However, most of the climate change adaptation measures are at a catchment scale, and the development of a framework for studying persistence in precipitation is still at an early stage. Two stochastic approaches for modelling drought severity index (DSI) are proposed to investigate possible changes in droughts in six catchments in the UK. They are the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the generalised linear model (GLM) approach. Results of ARIMA modelling show that mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are important climate variables for short term drought forecasts, whereas relative humidity is not a significant climate variable despite its high correlation with the DSI series. By simulating rainfall series, the generalised linear model (GLM) approach can provide the probability density function of the DSI. GLM simulations indicate that the changes in the 10th and 50th quantiles of drought events are more noticeable than in the 90th extreme droughts. The possibility of extending the GLM approach to support risk-based water management is also discussed.

Climate Change and Professional Surveying Programmes of Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dent, Peter; Dalton, Gina

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this research paper is to examine some of the issues that the UK surveying profession need to consider with regard to climate change in the built environment. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is based on an examination of literature related to adaptation and mitigation and the flow of information in the context of…

The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

2012-04-01

Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising incomes. The scale of the impacts and their direction depend to some extent on (re)insurer responses to the challenges of climate change. We outline five actions that could pave the way for future opportunities in the industry. Authors of the paper: Ranger, Nicola (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK) and Surminski, Swenja (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK)

Seasonal variations of soil erosion in UK under climate change: simulations with the use of high-resolution regional climatic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciampalini, Rossano; Kendon, Elizabeth; Constantine, José Antonio; Schindewolf, Marcus; Hall, Ian

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle, twenty-first century climate change simulations for Great Britain forecast an increase of surface runoff and flooding frequency. Once quality and resolution of the simulated rainfall deeply influence the results, we adopted rainfall simulations issued of a high-resolution climate model recently carried out for extended periods (13 years for present-day and future periods 2100) at 1.5 km grid scale over the south of the United Kingdom (simulations, which for the future period use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP 8.5 scenario, Kendon et al., 2014). We simulated soil erosion with 3D soil erosion model Schmidt (1990) on two catchments of Great Britain: the Rother catchment (350 km2) in West Sussex, England, because it has reported some of the most erosive events observed during the last 50 years in the UK, and the Conwy catchment (628 Km2) in North Wales, which is extremely resilient to soil erosion because of the abundant natural vegetation. Estimation of changes in soil moisture, saturation deficit as well as vegetation cover at daily time step have been done with the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) (Best et al, 2011). Our results confirm the Rother catchment is the most erosive, while the Conwy catchment is the more resilient to soil erosion. Sediment production is perceived increase in both cases for the end of the century (27% and 50%, respectively). Seasonal disaggregation of the results revels that, while the most part of soil erosion is produced in winter months (DJF), the higher soil erosion variability for future periods is observed in summer (JJA). This behaviour is supported by the rainfall simulation analyse which highlighted this dual behaviour in precipitations.

Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J. Alastair R.; Connell, Richenda K.; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R.; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David

2018-06-01

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK.

PubMed

Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J Alastair R; Connell, Richenda K; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David

2018-06-13

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK).

PubMed

Bussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G; Bowes, Michael J; Read, Daniel S; Prudhomme, Christel; Dadson, Simon J

2016-12-01

Potential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenario-neutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England). In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-03-01

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

Tick off to Take off: The Pre-Departure Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arthur, Erica

2009-01-01

"Tick Off to Take Off (TOTTO)" is an online pre-departure guide for UK undergraduates intending to study abroad. It aims to simplify the application process, centralise information, increase efficiency and improve retention rates. TOTTO responds to the changing climate surrounding study abroad in UK universities and offers one way to…

Greening Technology in U.K. Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bristow, Rob

2009-01-01

With the world focusing on climate change and individuals through to organizations questioning how they can reduce their personal and professional carbon footprints, JISC (Joint Information Systems Committee) is looking at how it can help U.K. education professionals learn from one another. In 2009, the final report from JISC's SusteIT study…

Geoengineering, climate change scepticism and the ‘moral hazard’ argument: an experimental study of UK public perceptions

PubMed Central

Corner, Adam; Pidgeon, Nick

2014-01-01

Many commentators have expressed concerns that researching and/or developing geoengineering technologies may undermine support for existing climate policies—the so-called moral hazard argument. This argument plays a central role in policy debates about geoengineering. However, there has not yet been a systematic investigation of how members of the public view the moral hazard argument, or whether it impacts on people's beliefs about geoengineering and climate change. In this paper, we describe an online experiment with a representative sample of the UK public, in which participants read one of two arguments (either endorsing or rejecting the idea that geoengineering poses a moral hazard). The argument endorsing the idea of geoengineering as a moral hazard was perceived as more convincing overall. However, people with more sceptical views and those who endorsed ‘self-enhancing’ values were more likely to agree that the prospect of geoengineering would reduce their motivation to make changes in their own behaviour in response to climate change. The findings suggest that geoengineering is likely to pose a moral hazard for some people more than others, and the implications for engaging the public are discussed. PMID:25404680

Geoengineering, climate change scepticism and the 'moral hazard' argument: an experimental study of UK public perceptions.

PubMed

Corner, Adam; Pidgeon, Nick

2014-12-28

Many commentators have expressed concerns that researching and/or developing geoengineering technologies may undermine support for existing climate policies-the so-called moral hazard argument. This argument plays a central role in policy debates about geoengineering. However, there has not yet been a systematic investigation of how members of the public view the moral hazard argument, or whether it impacts on people's beliefs about geoengineering and climate change. In this paper, we describe an online experiment with a representative sample of the UK public, in which participants read one of two arguments (either endorsing or rejecting the idea that geoengineering poses a moral hazard). The argument endorsing the idea of geoengineering as a moral hazard was perceived as more convincing overall. However, people with more sceptical views and those who endorsed 'self-enhancing' values were more likely to agree that the prospect of geoengineering would reduce their motivation to make changes in their own behaviour in response to climate change. The findings suggest that geoengineering is likely to pose a moral hazard for some people more than others, and the implications for engaging the public are discussed.

Integrated Modelling on Flow and Water Quality Under the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SHI, J.

2014-12-01

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on flooding in the UK, inducing more intense and prolonged storms. Frequent flooding due to climate change already exacerbates catchment water quality. Land use is another contributing factor to poor water quality. For example, the move to intensive farming could cause an increase in faecal coliforms entering the water courses. In an effort to understand better the effects on water quality from land use and climate change, the hydrological and estuarine processes are being modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), linked to a 2-D hydrodynamic model DIVAST(Depth Integrated Velocity and Solute Transport). The coupled model is able to quantify how much of each pollutant from the catchment reaches the harbour and the impact on water quality within the harbour. The work is focused on the transportation and decay of faecal coliforms from agricultural runoff into the rivers Frome and Piddle in the UK. The impact from the agricultural land use and activities on the catchment river hydrology and water quality are evaluated. The coupled model calibration and validation showed the good model performance on flow and faecal coliform in the watershed and estuary.

The use of religious metaphors by UK newspapers to describe and denigrate climate change.

PubMed

Woods, Ruth; Fernández, Ana; Coen, Sharon

2012-04-01

British newspapers have denigrated anthropogenic climate change by misrepresenting scientific consensus and/or framing climate change within unsympathetic discourses. One aspect of the latter that has not been studied is the use of metaphor to disparage climate change science and proponents. This article analyses 122 British newspaper articles published using a religious metaphor between summer 2003 and 2008. Most were critical of climate change, especially articles in conservative newspapers The Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and The Times. Articles used religion as a source of metaphor to denigrate climate change in two ways: (1) undermining its scientific status by presenting it as irrational faith-based religion, and proponents as religious extremists intolerant of criticism; (2) mocking climate change using notions of sin, e.g. describing 'green' behaviours as atonement or sacrifice. We argue that the religious metaphor damages constructive debate by emphasizing morality and how climate change is discussed, and detracting attention from the content of scientific data and theories.

Birmingham Urban Climate Change with Neighbourhood Estimates of Environmental Risk (buccaneer)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassett, R.; Thornes, J.; Cai, X.; Rees, R.

2011-12-01

The BUCCANEER project is a knowledge transfer partnership between the University of Birmingham and Birmingham City Council to help ensure that the city is prepared for the impacts of climate change. The project will equip service areas such as planners and health protection agencies with the necessary information and tools needed to adapt. UK climate projections indicate a 3.7oC temperature increase for Birmingham, UK by 2080 (medium emissions scenario). The 2003 heat-wave that caused over 2000 deaths in England and Wales will become an average summer by 2040. By the end of the century, the 2003 heat wave will be considered a cool summer. The dense urban fabric of Birmingham, the UK's second largest city, creates a warming effect when compared to surrounding rural areas. Past studies have found the nature of this urban heat island (UHI) to be related to city size, moisture availability, land-use, anthropogenic emissions, building materials and geometry. The UHI effect can lead to heat stress and air pollution problems which are a major health concern. Birmingham's UHI is not currently modelled. More specifically the UK climate projections treat Birmingham as a homogeneous slab of grassland. The inclusions of the urban areas in a climate model will show an intensification of the likely heat risk in future projections. In the present study, the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) model has been setup and run for Birmingham and surrounding areas. The UHI was found to be greater than 3.5oC in Birmingham when modelled during heat waves. The model's performance is evaluated against data from two UK Met Office standard sites: Edgbaston (urban) and Winterbourne (rural). The temperatures predicted by the model over a 12 month (2010) simulation show a strong correlation with the observations. The model also reproduces the diurnal UHI intensity averaged over a year reasonably well. The model evaluation is also complemented by a data set of tiny-tag data logger temperature measurements around Birmingham and an on-going project (HiTemp) which aims to establish a high-density urban climate network in Birmingham. Once fully validated, UKCP09 weather generator data will be used to drive the model up to 2100 to assess future changes in Birmingham's climate and UHI. The findings of the research are transferred to Birmingham City Council so as to directly inform policy. In order for this to be achieved, a user-friendly web interface has been created - The BUCCANEER Planning Tool. The tool visually displays the combined impacts of the urban heat island, climate change and vulnerability on different temporal and spatial scales across the city. The vulnerability aspect uses layers developed from a risk mapping project at the University of Birmingham using social, economic and environmental data to create a spatial risk assessment with a particular focus on health and demographics. For example proportion of people with ill health in high density housing that will be exposed to excess heat. Additionally model parameters will be adjusted to allow for adaptation strategies to be assessed, for example the effectiveness of inserting green infrastructure in areas to combat excess heat in the city.

Winter chilling speeds spring development of temperate butterflies.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Gotthard, Karl; Leimar, Olof

2017-07-01

Understanding and predicting phenology has become more important with ongoing climate change and has brought about great research efforts in the recent decades. The majority of studies examining spring phenology of insects have focussed on the effects of spring temperatures alone. Here we use citizen-collected observation data to show that winter cold duration, in addition to spring temperature, can affect the spring emergence of butterflies. Using spatial mixed models, we disentangle the effects of climate variables and reveal impacts of both spring and winter conditions for five butterfly species that overwinter as pupae across the UK, with data from 1976 to 2013 and one butterfly species in Sweden, with data from 2001 to 2013. Warmer springs lead to earlier emergence in all species and milder winters lead to statistically significant delays in three of the five investigated species. We also find that the delaying effect of winter warmth has become more pronounced in the last decade, during which time winter durations have become shorter. For one of the studied species, Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly), we also make use of parameters determined from previous experiments on pupal development to model the spring phenology. Using daily temperatures in the UK and Sweden, we show that recent variation in spring temperature corresponds to 10-15 day changes in emergence time over UK and Sweden, whereas variation in winter duration corresponds to 20 days variation in the south of the UK versus only 3 days in the south of Sweden. In summary, we show that short winters delay phenology. The effect is most prominent in areas with particularly mild winters, emphasising the importance of winter for the response of ectothermic animals to climate change. With climate change, these effects may become even stronger and apply also at higher latitudes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Coupling climate and hydrological models to evaluate the impact of climate change on run of the river hydropower schemes from UK study sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto; Jones, Julie; Moggridge, Helen

2015-04-01

As climate change is expected to generate variations on the Earth's precipitation and temperature, the water cycle will also experience changes. Consequently, water users will have to be prepared for possible changes in future water availability. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on river regimes and the implications to the operation and feasibility of run of the river hydropower schemes by analyzing four UK study sites. Run of the river schemes are selected for analysis due to their higher dependence to the available river flow volumes when compared to storage hydropower schemes that can rely on previously accumulated water volumes (linked to poster in session HS5.3). Global Climate Models (GCMs) represent the main tool to assess future climate change. In this research, Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which dynamically downscale GCM outputs providing higher resolutions, are used as starting point to evaluate climate change within the study catchments. RCM daily temperature and precipitation will be downscaled to an appropriate scale for impact studies and bias corrected using different statistical methods: linear scaling, local intensity scaling, power transformation, variance scaling and delta change correction. The downscaled variables will then be coupled to hydrological models that have been previously calibrated and validated against observed daily river flow data. The coupled hydrological and climate models will then be used to simulate historic river flows that are compared to daily observed values in order to evaluate the model accuracy. As this research will employ several different RCMs (from the EURO-CORDEX simulations), downscaling and bias correction methodologies, greenhouse emission scenarios and hydrological models, the uncertainty of each element will be estimated. According to their uncertainty magnitude, a prediction of the best downscaling approach (or approaches) is expected to be obtained. The current progress of the project will be presented along with the steps to be followed in the future.

Hydroecological impacts of climate change modelled for a lowland UK wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, Andrew; Acreman, Mike; Sorensen, James; Thompson, Julian

2015-04-01

Conservation management of wetlands often rests on modifying hydrological functions to establish or maintain desired flora and fauna. Hence the ability to predict the impacts of climate change is highly beneficial. Here, the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE was used to simulate hydrology for the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, UK. This comprises a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland protected for conservation, where the degree of variability in the peat, gravel and chalk geology has clouded hydrological understanding. Notably, a weathered layer on the chalk aquifer surface seals it from overlying deposits, yet is highly spatially heterogeneous. Long-term monitoring yielded observations of groundwater and surface water levels for model calibration and validation. Simulated results were consistent with observed data and reproduced the effects of seasonal fluctuations and in-channel macrophyte growth. The adjacent river and subsidiary channel were found to act as head boundaries, exerting a general control on water levels across the site. Discrete areas of groundwater upwellings caused raised water levels at distinct locations within the wetland. These were concurrent to regions where the weathered chalk layer is absent. To assess impacts of climate change, outputs from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of global climate models for the 2080s are used to obtain monthly percentage changes in climate variables. Changes in groundwater levels were taken from a regional model of the Chalk aquifer. Values of precipitation and evapotranspiration were seen to increase, whilst groundwater levels decreased, resulting in the greater dominance of precipitation. The discrete areas of groundwater upwelling were seen to diminish or disappear. Simulated water levels were linked to specific requirements of wetland plants using water table depth zone diagrams. Increasing depth of winter and summer groundwater levels leads to a loss of Glyceria maxima and Phragmites australis, principal habitat for the endangered Vertigo moulinsiana. Further, the reduced influx of base-rich groundwater and increased dominance of high pH rain-fed waters alters the acidity of the soil. This leads to changes in species composition, with potential reductions in Carex paniculata, Caltha palustris and Typha latifolia.

Understanding the NAO from Iberian and UK paleoclimate records. The NAOSIPUK project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Alix, Antonio; Toney, Jaime L.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Slaymark, Charlotte; José Ramos-Román, Maria; Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Anderson, R. Scott

2017-04-01

The main goal of the NAOSIPUK project was to understand the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the Holocene, because the NAO is one major climate mode influencing climate patterns across Europe, and therefore, economy and society (Hurrell, 1995). We analysed several sedimentary records in two regions with opposing NAO responses. Our sedimentary surface survey from numerous lakes and bogs, led to further investigation of four records in the southern Iberian Peninsula and three in the central/northern UK. Past environments of the different sites were analysed using pollen and charcoal analysis, organic and inorganic geochemistry analyses, and sedimentary and geophysical surveys were performed. This work compares general environmental trends in both regions as deduced from the organic matter from bulk sediment to get an idea of the organic matter source, as well as specific organic compounds extracted from the sediment, such as leaf waxes (n-alkanes), algae-related compounds (diols and alkenones), and bacteria-related compounds (hopanes), to specify the sources of the organic matter, environmental temperature ranges, as well as hydrological changes. Our preliminary results show that the palaeoenvironmental indices developed from n-alkanes agree with the variations deduced from the carbon and nitrogen atomic ratios, as well as the carbon isotopic composition from bulk sediments in southern Iberia records. Interestingly, these indices show that some locations display opposite trends from one another, and are used to distinguish regional versus local effects of climate change, human impacts, and aeolian dust inputs. During the late Holocene solar forcing and NAO fluctuations are the main drivers of the environmental evolution in most of the Iberian and UK sites. However, we do detect the influence of the NAO in the temperatures oscillations of the studied sites in southern Iberia. This influence is much more important in the north/central UK sites. The regional comparison between north/central UK and southern Iberia shows a more stable middle Holocene (from ˜7.0 to ˜5.0 cal ky BP) at higher latitudes. On the other hand, the environmental and climatic changes in southern Spain are abrupt during this period. This might be related to the beginning or increasing influence of the NAO during the middle Holocene, which is coeval with a change in the precipitation source in this area. The UK records mainly show abrupt environmental changes between 4.5 and 4.0 cal ky BP and during the last millennia. These environmental changes are especially abrupt in both areas during the last one-hundred years, agreeing with the regional and global industrial development. References Hurrell, J.W., 1995. Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation. Science 269, 676-679. NAOSIPUK. http://www.naosipuk.org. Last access: 9th January 2017.

Nurturing the H in HR: Using Action Learning to Build Organisation Development Capability in the UK Civil Service

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hale, Richard; Saville, Martin

2014-01-01

In the UK, the Civil Service Reform Plan is being implemented with urgency. This requires Civil Service departments and agencies to reform their structures and ways of working in order to deliver effective services in a climate of economic austerity and rapid social and technological change. Historically, Human Resource (HR) professionals have…

Carbon soundings: greenhouse gas emissions of the UK music industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottrill, C.; Liverman, D.; Boykoff, M.

2010-01-01

Over the past decade, questions regarding how to reduce human contributions to climate change have become more commonplace and non-nation state actors—such as businesses, non-government organizations, celebrities—have increasingly become involved in climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives. For these dynamic and rapidly expanding spaces, this letter provides an accounting of the methods and findings from a 2007 assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the UK music industry. The study estimates that overall GHG emissions associated with the UK music market are approximately 540 000 t CO2e per annum. Music recording and publishing accounted for 26% of these emissions (138 000 t CO2e per annum), while three-quarters (74%) derived from activities associated with live music performances (400 000 t CO2e per annum). These results have prompted a group of music industry business leaders to design campaigns to reduce the GHG emissions of their supply chains. The study has also provided a basis for ongoing in-depth research on CD packaging, audience travel, and artist touring as well as the development of a voluntary accreditation scheme for reducing GHG emissions from activities of the UK music industry.

The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus.

PubMed

Brand, Samuel P C; Keeling, Matt J

2017-03-01

It is a long recognized fact that climatic variations, especially temperature, affect the life history of biting insects. This is particularly important when considering vector-borne diseases, especially in temperate regions where climatic fluctuations are large. In general, it has been found that most biological processes occur at a faster rate at higher temperatures, although not all processes change in the same manner. This differential response to temperature, often considered as a trade-off between onward transmission and vector life expectancy, leads to the total transmission potential of an infected vector being maximized at intermediate temperatures. Here we go beyond the concept of a static optimal temperature, and mathematically model how realistic temperature variation impacts transmission dynamics. We use bluetongue virus (BTV), under UK temperatures and transmitted by Culicoides midges, as a well-studied example where temperature fluctuations play a major role. We first consider an optimal temperature profile that maximizes transmission, and show that this is characterized by a warm day to maximize biting followed by cooler weather to maximize vector life expectancy. This understanding can then be related to recorded representative temperature patterns for England, the UK region which has experienced BTV cases, allowing us to infer historical transmissibility of BTV, as well as using forecasts of climate change to predict future transmissibility. Our results show that when BTV first invaded northern Europe in 2006 the cumulative transmission intensity was higher than any point in the last 50 years, although with climate change such high risks are the expected norm by 2050. Such predictions would indicate that regular BTV epizootics should be expected in the UK in the future. © 2017 The Author(s).

The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain.

PubMed

Williams, Martin L; Lott, Melissa C; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Dajnak, David; Walton, Heather; Holland, Mike; Pye, Steve; Fecht, Daniela; Toledano, Mireille B; Beevers, Sean D

2018-05-01

Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions. In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM 2·5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups. NO 2 concentrations declined leading to 4 892 000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7 178 000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO 2 itself. PM 2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM 2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood burning), and by a large, projected increase in future demand for transport leading to potential increases in non-exhaust particulate matter emissions. The potential use of biomass in poorly controlled technologies to meet the Climate Change Act commitments would represent an important missed opportunity (resulting in 472 000 more life-years lost from PM 2·5 in the low-greenhouse gas scenario and 1 122 000 more life-years lost in the nuclear power scenario from PM 2·5 than the baseline scenario). Although substantial overall improvements in absolute amounts of exposure are seen compared with 2011, these outcomes mask the fact that health inequalities seen (in which socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are among the most exposed) are projected to be maintained up to 2050. The modelling infrastructure created will help future researchers explore a wider range of climate policy scenarios, including local, European, and global scenarios. The need to strengthen the links between climate change policy objectives and public health imperatives, and the benefits to societal wellbeing that might result is urgent. National Institute for Health Research. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Sea level rise in the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel and impacts of a Severn Barrage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadian, Reza; Olbert, Agnieszka I.; Hartnett, Michael; Falconer, Roger A.

2014-05-01

Many research projects in recent years have focused on marine renewable energy devices and structures due to the growing interest in marine renewable energy. These devices and structures have very different life spans. Schemes such as the Severn Barrage in the UK, as originally proposed by the Severn Tidal Power Group (STPG), would be the largest tidal renewable energy generation project in the world and would be operational for well over a century if built. Due to the long working life of some of these marine renewable energy schemes, it is important to study the impacts of climate change on such schemes, and particularly sea level rise. This study focuses on investigating the impacts of sea level rise due to climate change on the largest macro-tidal estuary in the UK, namely the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel, and the alterations of the impacts and the performance of the Severn Barrage as a result of climate change. A hierarchy of computer models was implemented to identify the more localised impacts of climate change in the region of the study. Moreover, the potential benefits of the barrage on reducing flood risk, as well as the impact of climate change and the barrage on intertidal mudflats were investigated. The model predictions showed that the barrage would reduce flood risk due to the sea level rise. Furthermore, annual power output and the initial reduction in flood risk of the barrage would not be affected by sea level rise.

Verifying the UK N_{2}O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, Ed; Meneguz, Elena; Skiba, Ute; Misselbrook, Tom; Cardenas, Laura; Arnold, Tim; Manning, Alistair; Dragosits, Ulli

2016-04-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential ˜300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates (e.g. agricultural management data), in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and a revised approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the revised approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (www.ghgplatform.org.uk, Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E England; Ridge Hill, W England; Mace Head, W Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to fit with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of fertiliser application and land spreading of manures. The model run using the 'experimental' approach was found to give a closer agreement with the observed data.

Data Mashups: Linking Human Health and Wellbeing with Weather, Climate and the Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, L. E.; Sarran, C.; Golding, B.; Haines, A.; Kessel, A.; Djennad, M.; Hajat, S.; Nichols, G.; Gordon Brown, H.; Depledge, M.

2016-12-01

A large part of the global disease burden can be linked to environmental factors, underpinned by unhealthy behaviours. Research into these linkages suffers from lack of common tools and databases for investigations across many different scientific disciplines to explore these complex associations. The MEDMI (Medical and Environmental Data-a Mash-up Infrastructure) Partnership brings together leading organisations and researchers in climate, weather, environment, and human health. We have created a proof-of-concept central data and analysis system with the UK Met Office and Public Health England data as the internet-based MEDMI Platform (www.data-mashup.org.uk) to serve as a common resource for researchers to link and analyse complex meteorological, environmental and epidemiological data in the UK. The Platform is hosted on its own dedicated server, with secure internet and in-person access with appropriate safeguards for ethical, copyright, security, preservation, and data sharing issues. Via the Platform, there is a demonstration Browser Application with access to user-selected subsets of the data for: a) analyses using time series (e.g. mortality/environmental variables), and b) data visualizations (e.g. infectious diseases/environmental variables). One demonstration project is linking climate change, harmful algal blooms and oceanographic modelling building on the hydrodynamic-biogeochemical coupled models; in situ and satellite observations as well as UK HAB data and hospital episode statistics data are being used for model verification and future forecasting. The MEDMI Project provides a demonstration of the potential, barriers and challenges, of these "data mashups" of environment and health data. Although there remain many challenges to creating and sustaining such a shared resource, these activities and resources are essential to truly explore the complex interactions between climate and other environmental change and health at the local and global scale.

Spatio-temporal Assessment Of The Land Use Implications Of Solar PV And Bioenergy Deployment In The UK TM Energy Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobral Mourao, Z.; Konadu, D. D.; Skelton, S.; Lupton, R.

2015-12-01

The UK TIMES model (UKTM) succeeds the UK MARKAL as the underlying model of the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for long term energy system planning and policy development. It generates energy system pathways which achieve the 80% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target by 2050, stipulated in the UK Climate Change Act (2008), at the least possible cost. Some of these pathways prescribe large-scale deployment of solar PV and indigenously sourced bioenergy, which are land intensive and could result in significant land use transitions; but would this create competition and stress for UK land use? To answer the above question, this study uses an integrated spatio-temporal modelling approach, ForeseerTM, which characterises the interdependencies between the energy and land systems by evaluating the land required under each pathways for solar PV and bioenergy, based on scenarios of a range of PV conversion efficiencies, and energy crop yield projections. The outcome is compared with availability of suitable locations for solar PV and sustainable limits of agricultural land appropriation for bioenergy production to assess potential stresses and competition with other land use services. Preliminary results show UKTM pathways could pose significant impact on the UK land use system. Bioenergy deployment could potentially compete with other land services by taking up a significant part of the available UK agricultural land thus competing directly with food production, most notably livestock production. For pathways with significant solar PV deployment, direct competition would not be focussed on the high quality land used for food crop production but rather for land used for livestock production and other ecosystem services.

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

2014-03-01

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

Using an improved understanding of current climate variability to develop increased drought resilience in UK irrigated agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I.; Rey Vicario, D.

2016-12-01

Improving community preparedness for climate change can be supported by developing resilience to past events, focused on those changes of particular relevance (such as floods and droughts). However, communities' perceptions of impacts and risk can be influenced by an incomplete appreciation of historical baseline climate variability. This can arise from a number of factors including individual's age, access to long term data records and availability of local knowledge. For example, the most significant recent drought in the UK occurred in 1976/77 but does it represent the worst drought that did occur (or could have occurred) without climate change? We focus on the east of England where most irrigated agriculture is located and where many local farmers interviewed were either not in business then or have an incomplete memory of the impacts of the drought. This paper describes a comparison of an annual agroclimatic indicator closely linked to irrigation demand (maximum Potential Soil Moisture Deficit) calculated from three sources of long term observational and simulated historical weather data with recent data. These long term datasets include gridded measured / calculated datasets of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration; a dynamically downscaled 20th Century Re-analysis dataset, and two Regional Climate Model ensemble datasets (FutureFlows and the MaRIUS event set) which each provide between 110 and 3000 years of baseline weather. The comparison shows that the long term datasets provide a wider characterisation of current climate variability and affect the perception of current drought frequency and severity. The paper will show that using a more comprehensive understanding of current climate variability and drought risk as a basis for adapting irrigated systems to droughts can provide substantial increased resilience to (uncertain) climate change.

Evolution on the move: specialization on widespread resources associated with rapid range expansion in response to climate change.

PubMed

Bridle, Jon R; Buckley, James; Bodsworth, Edward J; Thomas, Chris D

2014-02-07

Generalist species and phenotypes are expected to perform best under rapid environmental change. In contrast to this view that generalists will inherit the Earth, we find that increased use of a single host plant is associated with the recent climate-driven range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly. Field assays of female host plant preference across the UK reveal a diversity of adaptations to host plants in long-established parts of the range, whereas butterflies in recently colonized areas are more specialized, consistently preferring to lay eggs on one host plant species that is geographically widespread throughout the region of expansion, despite being locally rare. By common-garden rearing of females' offspring, we also show an increase in dispersal propensity associated with the colonization of new sites. Range expansion is therefore associated with an increase in the spatial scale of adaptation as dispersive specialists selectively spread into new regions. Major restructuring of patterns of local adaptation is likely to occur across many taxa with climate change, as lineages suited to regional colonization rather than local success emerge and expand.

Climate change adaptation in regulated water utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Harou, J. J.; Characklis, G. W.; Ricalde, I.

2017-12-01

Concern about climate change impacts on water supply systems has grown in recent years. However, there are still few examples of pro-active interventions (e.g. infrastructure investment or policy changes) meant to address plausible future changes. Deep uncertainty associated with climate impacts, future demands, and regulatory constraints might explain why utility planning in a range of contexts doesn't explicitly consider climate change scenarios and potential adaptive responses. Given the importance of water supplies for economic development and the cost and longevity of many water infrastructure investments, large urban water supply systems could suffer from lack of pro-active climate change adaptation. Water utilities need to balance the potential for high regret stranded assets on the one side, with insufficient supplies leading to potentially severe socio-economic, political and environmental failures on the other, and need to deal with a range of interests and constraints. This work presents initial findings from a project looking at how cities in Chile, the US and the UK are developing regulatory frameworks that incorporate utility planning under uncertainty. Considering for example the city of Santiago, Chile, recent studies have shown that although high scarcity cost scenarios are plausible, pre-emptive investment to guard from possible water supply failures is still remote and not accommodated by current planning practice. A first goal of the project is to compare and contrast regulatory approaches to utility risks considering climate change adaptation measures. Subsequently we plan to develop and propose a custom approach for the city of Santiago based on lessons learned from other contexts. The methodological approach combines institutional assessment of water supply regulatory frameworks with simulation-based decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Here we present initial work comparing the regulatory frameworks in Chile, UK and USA evaluating their ability to incorporate uncertain climate and other changes into long-term infrastructure investment planning. The potential for regulatory and financial adaptive measures is explored in addition to a discussion on evaluating their appropriateness via various modelling-based intervention decision-making approaches.

Flooding in the future--predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas.

PubMed

Ashley, R M; Balmforth, D J; Saul, A J; Blanskby, J D

2005-01-01

Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and the ability to extrapolate this performance, together with that of the assets across the usable lifetime. Whether or not climate change is going to significantly alter future weather patterns in Europe, it is clear that it is now incumbent on designers and operators of storm drainage systems to prepare for greater uncertainty in the effectiveness of storm drainage systems. A recent U.K. Government study considered the potential effects of climate and socio-economic change in the U.K. in terms of four future scenarios and what the implications are for the performance of existing storm drainage facilities. In this paper the modelling that was undertaken to try to quantify the changes in risk, together with the effectiveness of responses in managing that risk, are described. It shows that flood risks may increase by a factor of almost 30 times and that traditional engineering measures alone are unlikely to be able to provide protection.

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology.This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in thesemi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-basedmodel is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCSCN)method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation,the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologicsimulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor inregulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increaseriver discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deservesattention in climate change adaptation planning.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Chen, H., S. Tong, H. Yang, and J. Yang. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed. Hydrological Sciences Journal. IAHS LIMITED, Oxford, UK, 60(10): 1739-1758, (2015).

Scientific Data and Its Limits: Rethinking the Use of Evidence in Local Climate Change Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearce, Warren

2014-01-01

Climate policy is typically seen as informed by scientific evidence that anthropogenic carbon emissions require reducing in order to avoid dangerous consequences. However, agreement on these matters has not translated into effective policy. Using interviews with local authority officials in the UK's East Midlands region, this paper argues that the…

Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

2015-04-01

Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further. Adaptation measures, such as new reservoirs can manage these risks to a certain extent, but our sensitivity testing demonstrates that they are less robust to future uncertainties than measures taken to reduce water demand. Keywords: Climate change, Uncertainty, Decision making, Drought, Risk, Water resources management.

Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal Suffolk, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, J.; Wilby, R.; Nicholls, R. J.

2015-11-01

This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: scenario-led (SL), vulnerability-led (VL) and decision-centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis of metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation of implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid, showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal, Suffolk, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, J.; Wilby, R.; Nicholls, R. J.

2015-06-01

This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: Scenario-Led (SL), Vulnerability-Led (VL) and Decision-Centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

Geological Society of London Issues Statement on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summerhayes, Colin

2011-02-01

On 1 November the Geological Society of London (GSL) published a statement (http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/gsl/site//GSL//lang/en/climatechange) about the geological evidence relating to past climates, atmospheric carbon levels, and their interrelationships. The online version also carries a list of recommendations for further reading. The GSL's Geoscientist magazine (http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/gsl/site/GSL/lang/en/page8578.html) reported Bryan Lovell, GSL president, as saying, “Climate change is a defining issue of our time, whose full understanding needs geology's long perspective. Earth scientists can read…the geological record of changes in climate that occurred long before we were around to light so much as a camp fire, let alone burn coal, gas and oil. A dramatic global warming event 55 million years ago gives us a particularly clear indication of what happens when there is a sudden release of 1500 billion tonnes of carbon into Earth's atmosphere. It gets hot, the seas become more acid, and there is widespread extinction of life. We are a third of the way to repeating that ancient natural input of carbon through our own agency. The message from the rocks is that it would be a good idea to stop pulling that carbon trigger.”

Attribution of UK Winter Floods to Anthropogenic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, N.; Alison, K.; Sparrow, S. N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Massey, N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; van Haren, R.; Lamb, R.; Huntingford, C.; Crooks, S.; Legg, T.; Weisheimer, A.; Bowery, A.; Miller, J.; Jones, R.; Stott, P.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Many regions of southern UK experienced severe flooding during the 2013/2014 winter. Simultaneously, large areas in the USA and Canada were struck by prolonged cold weather. At the time, the media and public asked whether the general rainy conditions over northern Europe and the cold weather over North America were caused by climate change. Providing an answer to this question is not trivial, but recent studies show that probabilistic event attribution is feasible. Using the citizen science project weather@home, we ran over 40'000 perturbed initial condition simulations of the 2013/2014 winter. These simulations fall into two categories: one set aims at simulating the world with climate change using observed sea surface temperatures while the second set is run with sea surface temperatures corresponding to a world that might have been without climate change. The relevant modelled variables are then downscaled by a hydrological model to obtain river flows. First results show that anthropogenic climate change led to a small but significant increase in the fractional attributable risk for 30-days peak flows for the river Thames. A single number can summarize the final result from probabilistic attribution studies indicating, for example, an increase, decrease or no change to the risk of the event occurring. However, communicating this to the public, media and other scientists remains challenging. The assumptions made in the chain of models used need to be explained. In addition, extreme events, like the UK floods of the 2013/2014 winter, are usually caused by a range of factors. While heavy precipitation events can be caused by dynamic and/or thermodynamic processes, floods occur only partly as a response to heavy precipitation. Depending on the catchment, they can be largely due to soil properties and conditions of the previous months. Probabilistic attribution studies are multidisciplinary and therefore all aspects need to be communicated properly.

The effects of climate change on fungal diversity patterns in the UK and Greece: Contrasting trends and ecological interpretations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damialis, A.; Gange, A. C.; Mohammad, A. B.; Halley, J. M.

2013-05-01

It is well known that climate change has been affecting the ecology of living organisms. However, very little research has been done concerning alterations in fungal ecology. The changes in climate are expected to have an impact on fungal biodiversity patterns. Such changes in turn might have implications for public health since the spores of certain fungal taxa (e.g. Alternaria, Cladosporium) cause respiratory problems in sensitised individuals, with symptoms manifested even as acute respiratory failure. The objectives of this study were: a) to perform a comprehensive analysis of trends in long-term time series of fungal fruiting and sporulation variables for a wide range of fungal taxa, b) to investigate the response of fungal abundance and diversity to environmental variability. Data from two different geoclimatic areas were used: a) England, UK from more than 350 fungal species belonging to 10 different functional groups and with phenological records of fungal fruiting (start, end and duration) since 1950, b) Thessaloniki, Greece for 14 airborne fungal types with quantitative records (total annual concentration) and phenological records (start, peak, end, duration) of the atmospheric spore season since 1987. In parallel, various meteorological factors were examined in both areas in order to elucidate the relationship between climate and fungal diversity patterns. Long-term trends were found in most cases: these were particularly pronounced in the UK, where more than 300 species (~82%) displayed trends. Of these, ~77% were towards an earlier beginning and ~81% towards a later ending of the fruiting season; overall, an extension of the fruiting season seems to occur in more than 200 species. On a per-functional-group basis, except for manure, soil and mycorrhizal deciduous fungal species, all the other (137 species) exhibited earlier first fruiting dates and extended seasons. On the other hand, in Greece, although a tendency was observed towards lower yearly spore concentration (86% of the total) and later and shorter spore season (86% and 71% of the total, respectively), most cases only approached statistical significance. However, in both study areas the sole meteorological factor to change significantly over the last decades was minimum air temperature, and especially in the case of Thessaloniki, Greece. We observed a persistent correlation of this factor with fungal data, which frequently revealed a lag-effect of several decades. Particularly in the longer time-series of fungal fruiting in the UK, several fungal functional groups and species displayed a persistent 'memory' lasting up to four decades in the past as observed through patterns of variance growth. Biodiversity in the two study areas exhibits contrasting patterns over time with diversity increasing with time in the UK and decreasing in Greece, which suggests a more nuanced role for climate change as a driver of fungal diversity.

Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics

PubMed Central

Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

2016-01-01

This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5–6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top—the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling. PMID:27472663

Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics.

PubMed

Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

2016-01-01

This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5-6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top-the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling.

Land use impacts of low-carbon energy system transition - the case of UK bioenergy deployment under the Carbon Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konadu, D. D.; Sobral Mourao, Z.; Lupton, R.; Skelton, S.

2015-12-01

The UK Department of Energy and Climate Change has developed four low-carbon energy transition pathways - the Carbon Plan - towards achieving the legally binding 80% territorial greenhouse gas emissions reduction, stipulated in the 2008 Climate Change Act by 2050. All the pathways require increase in bioenergy deployment, of which a significant amount could be indigenously sourced from crops. But will increased domestic production of energy crops conflict with other land use and ecosystem priorities? To address this question, a coupled analysis of the four energy transition pathways and land use has been developed using an integrated resource accounting platform called ForeseerTM. The two systems are connected by the bioenergy component, and are projected forward in time to 2050, under different scenarios of energy crop composition and yield, and accounting for various constraints on land use for agriculture and ecosystem services. The results show between 7 and 61% of UK agricultural land could be required to meet bioenergy deployment projections under different combinations of crop yield and compositions for the transition pathways. This could result in competition for land for food production and other socio-economic and ecological land uses. Consequently, the potential role of bioenergy in achieving UK emissions reduction targets may face significant deployment challenges.

The use of EuroCordex in marine climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

2017-04-01

The Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS, including the North Sea, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea) are of economic, environmental and cultural importance to a number of European countries. However, their representation by global climate models (GCMs) is very crude, due to their inability to represent the complex geometry and the absence of tides. Therefore, there is a need to employ dynamical downscaling methods when considering the potential impacts of climate change on the European (and other) shelf seas. Using a shelf seas model to dynamically downscale of the ocean component of the GCM is a well established method. While taking open ocean lateral boundary conditions from the GCM ocean is acceptable, using surface flux forcings from the GCM atmosphere is often problematic. The CORDEX project provides an important dataset of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric forcings, derived from 'parent' CMIP5 GCM simulations. We drive the NEMO shelf seas model with data from CMIP5 models and EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data to produce a set of NWS climate projections. We require relatively high temporal resolution output, and run-off (for the river forcings), and so are limited to a subset of the available EURO-CORDEX RCMs. From these we select two CMIP5 GCMs with the same RCM with two emissions scenarios to give a minimum estimate of GCM model structural and emission scenario uncertainty. Other experiments allow an initial estimate of the uncertainty associated with the model structure of both the shelf seas and the RCM. Our analysis is focused on the uncertainty associated with the mean change in a number of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. Our work is part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and will inform the following UK Climate Change Risk Assessments, required as part of the Climate Change Act.

Climate Variability over India and Bangladesh from the Perturbed UK Met Office Hadley Model: Impacts on Flow and Nutrient Fluxes in the Ganges Delta System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehead, P. G.; Caesar, J.; Crossman, J.; Barbour, E.; Ledesma, J.; Futter, M. N.

2015-12-01

A semi-distributed flow and water quality model (INCA- Integrated Catchments Model) has been set up for the whole of the Ganges- Brahmaputra- Meghna (GBM) River system in India and Bangladesh. These massive rivers transport large fluxes of water and nutrients into the Bay of Bengal via the GBM Delta system in Bangladesh. Future climate change will impact these fluxes with changing rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficits being altered in the catchment systems. In this study the INCA model has been used to assess potential impacts of climate change using the UK Met Office Hadley Centre GCM model linked to a regionally coupled model of South East Asia, covering India and Bangladesh. The Hadley Centre model has been pururbed by varying the parameters in the model to generate 17 realisations of future climates. Some of these reflect expected change but others capture the more extreme potential behaviour of future climate conditions. The 17 realisations have been used to drive the INCA Flow and Nitrogen model inorder to generate downstream times series of hydrology and nitrate- nitrogen. The variability of the climates on these fluxes are investigated and and their likley impact on the Bay of Begal Delta considered. Results indicate a slight shift in the monsoon season with increased wet season flows and increased temperatures which alter nutrient fluxes. Societal Importance to Stakeholders The GBM Delta supports one of the most densely populated regions of people living in poverty, who rely on ecosystem services provided by the Delta for survival. These ecosystem services are dependent upon fluxes of water and nutrients. Freshwater for urban, agriculture, and aquaculture requirements are essential to livelihoods. Nutrient loads stimulate estuarine ecosystems, supporting fishing stocks, which contribute significantly the economy of Bangladesh. Thus the societal importance of upstream climate driven change change in Bangladesh are very significant to many stakeholders in Bangladesh at the local, regional and national levels.

Defining the Role of Geoarchaeology in Managing Past Industrial Landscapes with Global Heritage Value: A UK Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, Andy

2014-05-01

Historically, the location of cultural heritage has often been intimately linked to the natural landscape since physiography has played a significant factor in determining the position of sites. Moreover, the distribution and availability of geological resources such as coal, limestone and metal ores has been critical to the development of heavy industries that kindled the 'Industrial Revolution'. Paradoxically, however, many of these advantageous physiographic and geological characteristics, which were essential to past industrial development, also occur in environments where geomorphological and geological processes are most sensitive to climate change, particularly changing flood frequency and magnitude in valley floors. In addition to the changing energy levels of natural geomorphological processes, a common problem has been the release of industrial contaminants, which exacerbate the potential effects of landscape degradation and can also pose a risk to human health. For over 30 years, empirical research by the geomorphological community in the UK has documented the impact of past industrial processes, focusing on levels of contamination and transfer of sediments within the natural system. In contrast, the archaeological community has largely ignored this important research, instead focusing on the repair and preservation of industrial remains and mining histories. With the threats posed by future climate change and the implementation of more rigorous pollution control via the Water Framework Directive, there is a need for archaeologists to think beyond the environs of any immediate industrial site and to consider the remains within the context of the wider landscape. Using examples from across the UK, including a number of World Heritage Sites, this paper will explore the contribution that the geoarchaeological community can make towards the wider management of industrial sites in the context of future climate change.

The health effects of hotter summers and heat waves in the population of the United Kingdom: a review of the evidence.

PubMed

Arbuthnott, Katherine G; Hajat, Shakoor

2017-12-05

It is widely acknowledged that the climate is warming globally and within the UK. In this paper, studies which assess the direct impact of current increased temperatures and heat-waves on health and those which project future health impacts of heat under different climate change scenarios in the UK are reviewed.This review finds that all UK studies demonstrate an increase in heat-related mortality occurring at temperatures above threshold values, with respiratory deaths being more sensitive to heat than deaths from cardiovascular disease (although the burden from cardiovascular deaths is greater in absolute terms). The relationship between heat and other health outcomes such as hospital admissions, myocardial infarctions and birth outcomes is less consistent. We highlight the main populations who are vulnerable to heat. Within the UK, these are older populations, those with certain co-morbidities and those living in Greater London, the South East and Eastern regions.In all assessments of heat-related impacts using different climate change scenarios, deaths are expected to increase due to hotter temperatures, with some studies demonstrating that an increase in the elderly population will also amplify burdens. However, key gaps in knowledge are found in relation to how urbanisation and population adaptation to heat will affect health impacts, and in relation to current and future strategies for effective, sustainable and equitable adaptation to heat. These and other key gaps in knowledge, both in terms of research needs and knowledge required to make sound public- health policy, are discussed.

Process Based Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on River Water Quality: Case studies from the England, Wales and Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehead, P. G.; Jin, L.; Futter, M.; Crossman, J.

2011-12-01

A modelling study has been undertaken as part of a UK Water Industry Research Project to study and assess the likely impacts of climate change on river water quality across the UK. A range of climate scenarios (http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/ ) have been used to generate future precipitation, evaporation and temperature time series at a range of catchments across the UK. These time series have then been used to drive the Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) suite to simulate flow, nitrate, ammonia, total and soluble reactive phosphorus, sediments, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Rivers Tamar, Lugg, Tame, Kennet, Tweed and Lambourn. A wide range of responses have been obtained with impacts varying depending on river character, catchment location, flow regime, type of scenario and the time into the future. For example, The INCA-DOC model has been applied to the Hore catchment of the upper Severn catchment at Plynlimon, Wales. DOC is becoming an issue in the UK uplands due to rising trends in recent years. The trends are thought to be due primarily to reducing sulphur deposition but the climate variability certainly has an effect. This is because when peats dry out the oxidation processes enhance the production of DOC. The INCA-DOC model has been used to assess potential changes in DOC under the 2020s and 2050s climate. These results show quite large rises in October and September months when the soils become saturated and flush DOC. The INCA-N results for the Rivers Tweed (Scotland) and Kennet (England) suggest that nitrate and ammonia concentrations will be slightly higher in the winter months under the climate change scenarios, perhaps reflecting the higher flushing of nitrogen load from the catchment soils. However, in summer month nitrates fall significantly which reflects enhanced denitrification processes in the rivers. However, lower down the rivers where major point sources from effluents affect the river, nitrates and ammonia may increase because of lower flows in summer and hence less dilution. Modelling phosphorus and sediments in the Rivers Lugg, Tame and the Wensum (England) suggest phosphorus concentrations will decrease in summer due to lower flows in rural areas and the reduced flushing of diffuse sources of P from agricultural areas. However, in catchments with significant effluent discharges, the P concentrations will increase due to the reduced dilution of effluents. Sediments will increase with intense rainfall during winter months, although the increased frequency of storms, especially in summer months, will generate higher concentrations as sediments are flushed from the catchments. However, mean summer sediment concentrations will be lower due to the reduced diffuse runoff from agricultural areas. Finally it is worth pointing out that adaptation measures are possible with mitigation measures to control N deposition, fertiliser application rates, reintroducing wetlands and land management control.

In Brief: Refugee numbers could increase due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielinski, Sarah

2007-05-01

Climate change could push the number of refugees globally to more than one billion by 2050, according to a new report from the British charity Christian Aid. Currently, there are about 155 million `internally displaced persons' worldwide, driven from their homes due to conflict, ethnic persecution, or natural disasters. The addition of climate change and growing population numbers could exacerbate these ongoing problems. In the report, Mali is presented as a case study where ongoing climate change is forcing farmers to find other ways to feed their families; one result is an increased number of people attempting to migrate to Europe. The report calls on rich nations to devote US$100 billion each year to help poor people adapt to changing weather patterns. The report, ``Human tide: the real migration crisis,'' is available at http://www.christian-aid.org.uk/indepth/705caweekreport/

Verifying the UK agricultural N2O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, E. J.; Meneguz, E.; Skiba, U. M.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Cardenas, L. M.; Arnold, T.; Manning, A.; Dragosits, U.

2016-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential 300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates, in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and an alternative approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the alternative approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E. England; Ridge Hill, W. England; Mace Head, W. Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to correspond with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of land spreading of manures and fertiliser application. The model run using the default IPCC methodology was found to correspond with the observed data more closely than the alternative approach.

Trends in evaporation loss over the UK: 1962 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blyth, Eleanor; Robinson, Emma; Martinez de la Torre, Alberto

2017-04-01

Many models of hydrology assume that an increase in air temperature will result in an increase in evaporation. However, there are some processes involved in transpiration (evaporation through the vegetation) that make the relationship more complicated: in a bid to conserve water, vegetation will reduce their stomata in response to drier soils and warmer drier air which leads to lower transpiration rates despite higher evaporative demands. In addition, the vegetation responds to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide by closing their stomata, and this further reduces the transpiration. The JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) model, used widely in the UK to study the impacts of climate change on the environment, includes many of the processes that are likely to affect changes in water loss and its impact on large scale hydrology. A new assessment of the UK wide water balance for the last 52 years (1961 to 2013) at a 1km grid-scale has been made using this model in a system called CHESS (Climate Hydrology and Ecology research Support System). Some data is available to check the overall water balance. For instance, river flow data can be used at an annual time scale to capture the water balance, while evaporation data from flux towers can be used at some locations around the UK for the few years that it is available to evaluate the seasonal variations of evaporation. Both of these methods provide imperfect but useful evidence. Here we present the results of the modelling exercise and the evaluation: long term increasing evaporation loss trends are clearly present in the model output and these are discussed with respect to the different drivers of change.

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on peatland dissolved organic carbon release and drinking water treatment from laboratory experiments.

PubMed

Tang, R; Clark, J M; Bond, T; Graham, N; Hughes, D; Freeman, C

2013-02-01

Catchments draining peat soils provide the majority of drinking water in the UK. Over the past decades, concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have increased in surface waters. Residual DOC can cause harmful carcinogenic disinfection by-products to form during water treatment processes. Increased frequency and severity of droughts combined with and increased temperatures expected as the climate changes, have potentials to change water quality. We used a novel approach to investigate links between climate change, DOC release and subsequent effects on drinking water treatment. We designed a climate manipulation experiment to simulate projected climate changes and monitored releases from peat soil and litter, then simulated coagulation used in water treatment. We showed that the 'drought' simulation was the dominant factor altering DOC release and affected the ability to remove DOC. Our results imply that future short-term drought events could have a greater impact than increased temperature on DOC treatability. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Water Abstraction in Response to Climate, Policy, and Demand Changes: Results from East Anglia, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swinscoe, T. H. A.; Knoeri, C.; Fleskens, L.; Barrett, J.

2014-12-01

Freshwater is a vital natural resource for multiple needs, such as drinking water for the public, industrial processes, hydropower for energy companies, and irrigation for agriculture. In the UK, crop production is the largest in East Anglia, while at the same time the region is also the driest, with average annual rainfall between 560 and 720 mm (1971 to 2000). Many water catchments of East Anglia are reported as over licensed or over abstracted. Therefore, freshwater available for agricultural irrigation abstraction in this region is becoming both increasingly scarce due to competing demands, and increasingly variable and uncertain due to climate and policy changes. It is vital for water users and policy makers to understand how these factors will affect individual abstractors and water resource management at the system level. We present first results of an Agent-based Model that captures the complexity of this system as individual abstractors interact, learn and adapt to these internal and external changes. The purpose of this model is to simulate what patterns of water resource management emerge on the system level based on local interactions, adaptations and behaviours, and what policies lead to a sustainable water resource management system. The model is based on an irrigation abstractor typology derived from a survey in the study area, to capture individual behavioural intentions under a range of water availability scenarios, in addition to farm attributes, and demographics. Regional climate change scenarios, current and new abstraction licence reforms by the UK regulator, such as water trading and water shares, and estimated demand increases from other sectors were used as additional input data. Findings from the integrated model provide new understanding of the patterns of water resource management likely to emerge at the system level.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

PubMed

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

PubMed Central

Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

Metabolic regulation during constant moderate physical exertion in extreme conditions in Type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Valletta, J J; Chipperfield, A J; Clough, G F; Byrne, C D

2012-06-01

Constant moderate intensity physical exertion in humid environments at altitude poses a considerable challenge to maintaining euglycaemia with Type 1 diabetes. Blood glucose concentrations and energy expenditure were continuously recorded in a person trekking at altitude in a tropical climate to quantify changes in glucose concentrations in relation to energy expenditure. Blood glucose concentrations and energy expenditure were continuously monitored with a Guardian® real-time continuous glucose monitoring system (CGMS) and a SenseWear® Pro3 armband (BodyMedia Inc., USA), in a 27-year-old woman with Type 1 diabetes, during her climb up Mount Kinabalu in Borneo (c. 4095 m). Comparative control data from the same person was collected in the UK (temperate climate at sea level) and Singapore (tropical climate at sea level). Maximum physical effort during the climb was < 60% VO(2MAX) (maximal oxygen consumption). Mean daily calorific intakes were 2300 kcal (UK), 2370 kcal (Singapore) and 2274 kcal (Mount Kinabalu), and mean daily insulin doses were 54 U (UK), 40 U (Singapore) and 47 U (Mount Kinabalu). Despite markedly increased energy expenditure during the climb [4202 kcal (Mount Kinabalu) vs. 2948 kcal (UK) and 2662 kcal (Singapore)], mean blood glucose was considerably higher during the trek up Mount Kinabalu [13.2 ± 5.9 mmol/l, vs. 7.9 ± 3.8 mmol/l (UK) and 8.6 ± 4.0 mmol/l (Singapore)]. Marked unexpected hyperglycaemia occurred while trekking on Mount Kinabalu, despite similar calorie consumption and insulin doses to control conditions. Because of the risk of unexpected hyperglycaemia in these conditions, we recommend that patients embarking on similar activity holidays undertake frequent blood glucose monitoring. © 2011 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2011 Diabetes UK.

Avoiding dangerous climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic

2006-02-15

In 2005 the UK Government hosted the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference to take an in-depth look at the scientific issues associated with climate change. This volume presents the most recent findings from the leading international scientists that attended the conference. The topics addressed include critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, socioeconomic costs and benefits of emissions pathways, and technological options for meeting different stabilisation levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Contents are: Foreword from Prime Minister Tony Blair; Introduction from Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC; followed by 41more » papers arranged in seven sections entitled: Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds; General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts; Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Socio-Economic Effects; Regional Perspectives; Emission Pathways; and Technological Options. Four papers have been abstracted separately for the Coal Abstracts database.« less

Learning the law: practical proposals for UK medical education.

PubMed

Margetts, J K

2016-02-01

Ongoing serious breaches in medical professionalism might be avoided if UK doctors rethink their approach to law. UK medical education has a role in creating a climate of change by re-examining how law is taught to medical students. Adopting a more insightful approach in the UK to the impact of The Human Rights Act and learning to manipulate legal concepts, such as conflict of interest, need to be taught to medical students now if UK doctors are to manage complex decision-making in the NHS of the future. The literature is reviewed from a unique personal perspective of a doctor and lawyer, and practical proposals for developing medical education in law in the UK are suggested. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

The Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendry, K. R.; Reis, J.; Hall, I. R.

2011-12-01

In response to the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of climate change research, the Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W) was formed in 2009 by the Welsh universities of Aberystwyth, Bangor, Cardiff and Swansea. Initially funded by Welsh Government, through the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales, the Countryside Council for Wales and the universities, C3W aims to bring together climate change researchers from a wide range of disciplines to explore scientific and sociological drivers, impacts and implications at local, national and international scale. The specific aims are to i) improve our fundamental understanding of the causes, nature, timing and consequences of climate change on Planet Earth's environment and on humanity, and ii) to reconfigure climate research in Wales as a recognisable centre of excellence on the world stage. In addition to improving the infrastructure for climate change research, we aim to improve communication, networking, collaborative research, and multidisciplinary data assimilation within and between the Welsh universities, and other UK and international institutions. Furthermore, C3W aims to apply its research by actively contributing towards national policy development, business development and formal and informal education activities within and beyond Wales.

Should Nuclear Energy Form Part of the UK's Energy Future?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Peter

2003-01-01

Energy policies are under review everywhere, as the world tries to meet targets for reducing climate change despite continuing population growth. A major change in energy patterns is needed, with the critical period for transition predictably happening when young people currently at school are in their middle years of their lives. This article…

Agricultural Management and Climatic Change Are the Major Drivers of Biodiversity Change in the UK

PubMed Central

Burns, Fiona; Eaton, Mark A.; Beckmann, Björn C.; Brereton, Tom; Brooks, David R.; Brown, Peter M. J.; Al Fulaij, Nida; Gent, Tony; Henderson, Ian; Noble, David G.; Parsons, Mark; Powney, Gary D.; Roy, Helen E.; Stroh, Peter; Walker, Kevin; Wilkinson, John W.; Wotton, Simon R.; Gregory, Richard D.

2016-01-01

Action to reduce anthropogenic impact on the environment and species within it will be most effective when targeted towards activities that have the greatest impact on biodiversity. To do this effectively we need to better understand the relative importance of different activities and how they drive changes in species’ populations. Here, we present a novel, flexible framework that reviews evidence for the relative importance of these drivers of change and uses it to explain recent alterations in species’ populations. We review drivers of change across four hundred species sampled from a broad range of taxonomic groups in the UK. We found that species’ population change (~1970–2012) has been most strongly impacted by intensive management of agricultural land and by climatic change. The impact of the former was primarily deleterious, whereas the impact of climatic change to date has been more mixed. Findings were similar across the three major taxonomic groups assessed (insects, vascular plants and vertebrates). In general, the way a habitat was managed had a greater impact than changes in its extent, which accords with the relatively small changes in the areas occupied by different habitats during our study period, compared to substantial changes in habitat management. Of the drivers classified as conservation measures, low-intensity management of agricultural land and habitat creation had the greatest impact. Our framework could be used to assess the relative importance of drivers at a range of scales to better inform our policy and management decisions. Furthermore, by scoring the quality of evidence, this framework helps us identify research gaps and needs. PMID:27007973

Using continuous GPS and absolute gravity to separate vertical land movements and changes in sea-level at tide-gauges in the UK.

PubMed

Teferle, F N; Bingley, R M; Williams, S D P; Baker, T F; Dodson, A H

2006-04-15

Researchers investigating climate change have used historical tide-gauge measurements from all over the world to investigate the changes in sea-level that have occurred over the last century or so. However, such estimates are a combination of any true sea-level variations and any vertical movements of the land at the specific tide-gauge. For a tide- gauge record to be used to determine the climate related component of changes in sea-level, it is therefore necessary to correct for the vertical land movement component of the observed change in sea-level.In 1990, the Institute of Engineering Surveying and Space Geodesy and Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory started developing techniques based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) for measuring vertical land movements (VLM) at tide-gauges in the UK. This paper provides brief details of these early developments and shows how they led to the establishment of continuous GPS (CGPS) stations at a number of tide-gauges. The paper then goes on to discuss the use of absolute gravity (AG), as an independent technique for measuring VLM at tide-gauges. The most recent results, from CGPS time-series dating back to 1997 and AG time-series dating back to 1995/1996, are then used to demonstrate the complementarity of these two techniques and their potential for providing site-specific estimates of VLM at tide-gauges in the UK.

Dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the January 2014 precipitation record in southern UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oueslati, B.; Yiou, P.; Jezequel, A.

2017-12-01

Regional extreme precipitation are projected to intensify as a response to planetary climate change, with important impacts on societies. Understanding and anticipating those events remain a major challenge. In this study, we revisit the mechanisms of winter precipitation record that occurred in southern United Kingdom in January 2014. The physical drivers of this event are analyzed using the water vapor budget. Precipitation changes are decomposed into dynamic contributions, related to changes in atmospheric circulation, and thermodynamic contributions, related to changes in water vapor. We attempt to quantify the relative importance of the two contributions during this event and examine the applicability of Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This work provides a physical interpretation of the mechanisms associated with Southern UK's wettest event, which is complementary to other studies based on statistical approaches (Schaller et al., 2016, Yiou et al., 2017). The analysis is carried out using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. This is motivated by the horizontal resolution of this dataset. It is then applied to present-day simulations and future projections of CMIP5 models on selected extreme precipitation events in southern UK that are comparable to January 2014 in terms of atmospheric circulation.References:Schaller, N. et al. Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts, Nature Clim. Change, 2016, 6, 627-634 Yiou, P., et al. A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2017, 3, 17-31

Accounting for habitat when considering climate: has the niche of the Adonis blue butterfly changed in the UK?

PubMed

O'Connor, Rory S; Hails, Rosemary S; Thomas, Jeremy A

2014-04-01

The dramatic recovery of three species of grassland specialist butterfly threatened with extinction at their high latitude range limits in the 1980s has been attributed to two factors: increased grazing on calcareous grassland sites and warmer air temperatures. Both result in the warming of soil surface temperatures, favourable to the larvae of these species. We address the influence of both of these factors on the habitat usage of the butterfly Polyommatus bellargus, undergoing recovery at its northern range edge. We test the hypothesis that the larval niche of P. bellargus has become less constrained in the past three decades, whilst controlling for changes in habitat structure. Once habitat change has been accounted for we find no evidence for a broadening of the larval niche of P. bellargus. Further, we show that coincident with the recovery of P. bellargus there have been drastic reductions in average turf height across UK chalk grasslands, but changes in air temperature have been highly variable. We conclude that changes to soil surface temperatures caused by reducing turf heights will have been a more consistent influence than air temperature increases, and so habitat improvements through increased grazing will have been the major driver of recovery in P. bellargus. We consider the need to account for changes in habitat when exploring the impacts of recent climate change on local habitats in thermophilous species, and emphasise the continued importance of habitat management to support such species under variable local climates.

Performing Environmental Change: MED Theatre and the Changing Face of Community-Based Performance Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaefer, Kerrie

2012-01-01

This article examines a programme of work produced by community-based theatre company, Manaton and East Dartmoor (MED) Theatre, addressing issues of climate change as they impact on life in rural Devon, UK. After some discussion of MED Theatre's constitution as a community-based company and the group's long-term engagement with the place, history,…

Electricity Consumption Risk Map - The use of Urban Climate Mapping for smarter analysis: Case study for Birmingham, UK.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antunes Azevedo, Juliana; Burghardt, René; Chapman, Lee; Katzchner, Lutz; Muller, Catherine L.

2015-04-01

Climate is a key driving factor in energy consumption. However, income, vegetation, building mass structure, topography also impact on the amount of energy consumption. In a changing climate, increased temperatures are likely to lead to increased electricity consumption, affecting demand, distribution and generation. Furthermore, as the world population becomes more urbanized, increasing numbers of people will need to deal with not only increased temperatures from climate change, but also from the unintentional modification of the urban climate in the form of urban heat islands. Hence, climate and climate change needs to be taken into account for future urban planning aspects to increase the climate and energy resilience of the community and decrease the future social and economic costs. Geographical Information Systems provide a means to create urban climate maps as part of the urban planning process. Geostatistical analyses linking these maps with demographic and social data, enables a geo-statistical analysis to identify linkages to high-risk groups of the community and vulnerable areas of town and cities. Presently, the climatope classification is oriented towards thermal aspects and the ventilation quality (roughness) of the urban areas but can also be adapted to take into account other structural "environmental factors". This study aims to use the climatope approach to predict areas of potential high electricity consumption in Birmingham, UK. Several datasets were used to produce an average surface temperature map, vegetation map, land use map, topography map, building height map, built-up area roughness calculations, an average air temperature map and a domestic electricity consumption map. From the correlations obtained between the layers it is possible to average the importance of each factor and create a map for domestic electricity consumption to understand the influence of environmental aspects on spatial energy consumption. Based on these results city planners and local authorities can guide their directives and policies towards electricity consumption, demand, generation and distribution.

Low carbon transport : a greener future

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

This strategy is intended to enable the UK to meet the requirements of the carbon budgets set under the Climate Change Act 2008. Implementation of the strategy will be taken forward in a way that recognises and respects the policy responsibilities an...

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change.

PubMed

Brook, Barry W; Akçakaya, H Resit; Keith, David A; Mace, Georgina M; Pearson, Richard G; Araújo, Miguel B

2009-12-23

Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25-29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.

Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henner, Dagmar N.; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall P.

2015-04-01

Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy with higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by the unpredictable climate change currently going on. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers as many ecosystem services as possible at a Continental level including biodiversity, water, GHG emissions, soil, and cultural services. The distribution and production of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), is currently being modelled, and ecosystem models will be used to examine the impacts of these crops on ecosystem services. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be utilised. Research will focus on optimisation of land use change feedbacks on ecosystem services and biodiversity, and weighting of the importance of the individual ecosystem services. Energy crops will be modelled using low, medium and high climate change scenarios for the years between 2015 and 2050. We will present first results for GHG emissions and soil organic carbon change after different land use change scenarios (e.g. arable to Miscanthus, forest to SRF), and with different climate warming scenarios. All this will be complemented by the presentation of a matrix including all the factors and ecosystem services influenced by land use change to bioenergy crop production under different climate change scenarios.

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Jeff R.; Maidens, Anna; Watson, Peter A. G.; Andrews, Martin; Belcher, Stephen; Brunet, Gilbert; Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Scaife, Adam A.; Slingo, Julia

2017-07-01

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean-atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013-14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013-14.

Soil erosion under climate change in Great Britain: long-term simulations using high-resolution regional models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciampalini, Rossano; Kendon, Elizabeth; Constantine, José Antonio; Schindewolf, Marcus; Hall, Ian

2016-04-01

Twenty-first century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss and reduced soil carbon stores by increasing the likelihood of surface runoff. We find the quality and resolution of the simulated rainfall used to drive soil loss variation can widely influence the results. Hourly high definition rainfall simulations from a 1.5km resolution regional climate model are used to examine the soil erosion response in two UK catchments. The catchments have different sensitivity to soil erosion. "Rother" in West Sussex, England, reports some of the most erosive events that have been observed during the last 50 years in the UK. "Conwy" in North Wales, is resilient to soil erosion because of the abundant natural vegetation cover and very limited agricultural practises. We modelled with Erosion3D to check variations in soil erosion as influenced by climate variations for the periods 1996-2009 and 2086-2099. Our results indicate the Rother catchment is the most erosive, while the Conwy catchment is confirmed as the more resilient to soil erosion. The values of the reference-base period are consistent with the values of those locally observed in the previous decades. A soil erosion comparison for the two periods shows an increasing of sediment production (off-site erosion) for the end of the century at about 27% in the Rother catchment and about 50% for the Conwy catchment. The results, thanks to high-definition rainfall predictions, throw some light on the effect of climatic change effects in Great Britain.

NOAA OI SST Analysis

Science.gov Websites

will be referred to as OI.v2. The most significant change for the OI.v2 is the improved simulation of SST obs from sea ice data following a technique developed at the UK Met Office. This change has developed at the Climate Prediction Center using the method of Reynolds and Smith (1995) and Smith and

The Impact of Role Conflict, Role Ambiguity and Organizational Climate on the Job Satisfaction of Academic Staff in Research-Intensive Universities in the UK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulz, John

2013-01-01

This study focuses on academics in research-intensive universities in the UK and explores their perceptions of organizational climate, role conflict, role ambiguity and job satisfaction. The findings suggest that the universities have multiple organizational climates. Three organizational climate types -- the Clan, the Hierarchy and the Adhocracy…

Climate change and the green energy paradox: the consequences for twaite shad Alosa fallax from the River Severn, U.K.

PubMed

Aprahamian, M W; Aprahamian, C D; Knights, A M

2010-11-01

A stock-recruitment model with a temperature component was used to estimate the effect of an increase in temperature predicted by climate change projections on population persistence and distribution of twaite shad Alosa fallax. An increase of 1 and 2° C above the current mean summer (June to August) water temperature of 17·8° C was estimated to result in a three and six-fold increase in the population, respectively. Climate change is also predicted to result in an earlier commencement to their spawning migration into fresh water. The model was expanded to investigate the effect of any additional mortality that might arise from a tidal power barrage across the Severn Estuary. Turbine mortality was separated into two components: (1) juvenile (pre-maturation) on their out migration during their first year and on their first return to the river to spawn and (2) post-maturation mortality on adults on the repeat spawning component of the population. Under current conditions, decreasing pre-maturation and post-maturation survival by 8% is estimated to result in the stock becoming extinct. It is estimated that an increase in mean summer water temperature of 1° C would mean that survival pre and post-maturation would need to be reduced by c. 10% before the stock becomes extinct. Therefore, climate change is likely to be beneficial to populations of A. fallax within U.K. rivers, increasing survival and thus, population persistence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, Olivier

2016-04-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of analysing GCMs with the step-experiments. Acknowledgments: This work is supported by the FP7 HELIX project (www.helixclimate.eu) References: Anandarajah, G., Pye, S., Usher, W., Kesicki, F., & Mcglade, C. (2011). TIAM-UCL Global model documentation. https://www.ucl.ac.uk/energy-models/models/tiam-ucl/tiam-ucl-manual Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Lowe, J. A., & Andrews, T. (2013). Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections. Climate Dynamics, 40(3-4), 1041-1053.

Impact of different convection permitting resolutions on the representation of heavy rainfall over the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fosser, Giorgia; Kendon, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven

2017-04-01

Previous studies (e.g. Ban et al, 2015; Fosser et al, 2015 and 2016; Kendon et al, 2015) have shown that convection permitting models are able to give a much more realistic representation of convection, and are needed to provide reliable projections of future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. In this context, the UKCP18 project aims to provide policy makers with new UK climate change projections at hourly and local scales, thanks to the first ensemble of runs at convection permitting resolution. As a first step, we need to identify a suitable UK domain, resolution and experimental design for the convective-scale ensemble. Thus, a set of 12-years long simulations driven by ERA Interim reanalysis data has been carried out over the UK using the Met Office Unified Model (UM) at different convection permitting resolutions, namely 1.5 km, 2.2 km and 4km. Different nesting strategy and physical adjustments are also tested. Two observational gridded datasets, based on rain gauges and radar, are used for validation. The analysis aims to identify the impacts of the different convection permitting resolutions (as well as domain size and physical settings) on the representation of precipitation, especially when convection is a predominant feature. Moreover, this study tries to determine the physical reasons behind the found differences and hence to determine if there are any benefits of increasing the horizontal resolution within the convection permitting regime in a climatological context. First results show that the 4km model realises many of the benefits of convection-permitting resolution, namely the rainfall fields are much more realistic and the daily timing of rainfall is better captured compared to convection-parameterised models. For mean precipitation metrics, including precipitation conditioned on circulation type, there is little benefit in moving to resolutions finer than 4km. However, there are some key deficiencies at convection-permitting resolution which are notably worse at 4km, namely the tendency for the heaviest events to be too intense and convective showers to be too "blobby". The use of different nesting strategy seems to have a big impact on the results. Bibliography Ban N, Schmidli J, Schär C (2015) Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Geophys Res Lett 42:1165-1172. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062588 Fosser G, Khodayar S, Berg P (2015) Benefit of convection permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2242-1 Fosser G, Khodayar S, Berg P (2015) Climate change in the next 30 years: what can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know? Clim Dyn. accepted Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ, et al (2014) Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model. Nat Clim Chang 4:570-576. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2258

Sustainable forest management and impacts on forest responses to a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stover, D. B.; Parker, G.; Riutta, T.; Capretz, R.; Murthy, I.; Haibao, R.; Bebber, D.

2009-12-01

Impacts from human activities at varying scales and intensities have a profound influence on forest carbon dynamics in addition to interactions with climate. As such, forest carbon stocks and fluxes are among the least well-defined elements of the global carbon cycle, and great uncertainty remains in predicting the effect of climate change on forest dynamics. In some cases, these management-climate interactions are well known, but often represent a fundamental gap in our understanding of ecosystem responses and are likely to be important in improving modeling of climate change, and in valuing forest carbon. To improve understanding of human induced forest management-climate interactions, a network of permanent study plots has been established in five sites around the world - in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. The sites are near larger global monitoring (Smithsonian CTFS) plots to facilitate comparisons. At each site, a series of 1-ha plots have been placed in forest stands with differing management regimes and histories. Utilizing citizen scientists from HSBC bank, all trees >5 cm dbh are tagged, mapped, identified to species, and diameter is recorded within each plot. A subset of trees have dendrometer bands attached, to record seasonal growth. Dead wood and litterfall samples are taken, and microclimate is recorded with automatic sensors. Serial measurements will allow correlation of forest dynamics with weather. Although the studies are at an early stage current results indicate above-ground biomass estimates are 102-288 Mg ha-1 for intermediate and mature Liriodendron tulipifera-dominated stands in the US, respectively. In India, mature semi-natural evergreen forests biomass estimates are 192-235 Mg ha-1 while plantation and semi-natural core forests in the UK are estimated at 211-292 Mg ha-1. Successional Atlantic forests in Brazil are estimated to contain 192-235 Mg ha-1. In the US, initial results have demonstrated dramatic differences in microclimate (soil and air temperature and penetrance of phosynthetically active radiation) and canopy structure (the vertical distribution of surfaces) between the intact and selectively logged stands. These variables will be used as indicators of the strength and speed of ecosystem recovery to logging. In the UK, plantations had greater biomass than the semi-natural plots, due to differences in age structure; however, trees above 50 cm dbh comprised 3% of total stems but almost 50% of the biomass in the semi-natural plots. Comparisons will be made among the various modes of forest disturbance to determine how these could influence ecosystem responses to climate change. Increasing human and climatic pressures on the world's forests will necessitate further long-term studies and cross-ecosystem comparisons of this nature which lends itself to application of an intensive citizen science program.

Climate Change and Sustainability Open Educational Resources: Lessons learned and challenges to tackle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Zoe; Whitfield, Stephen; Gertisser, Ralf; Krause, Stefan; McKay, Deirdre; Pringle, Jamie; Szkornik, Katie; Waller, Richard

2010-05-01

The UK's Higher Education Academy Subject Centre for Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences (GEES) is currently running a project entitled ‘C-Change in GEES: Open licensing of climate change and sustainability resources in the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences' as part of a national Open Educational Resource project. The C-Change project aims to explore the challenges involved in ‘repurposing' existing teaching materials on the topics of climate change and sustainability to make them open access. This project has produced an open access resource of diverse climate change and sustainability-related teaching materials across the subjects of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences. The process of repurposing existing face-to-face teaching resources requires consideration of a wide variety of issues including the Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) associated with images and other material included in the teaching resources, in addition to issues of quality, accessibility and usability of resources. Open access education is an issue that will have implications across the whole of the organizational structure of a university, from legal advisors with commitments to University research and enterprise activities, to the academics wishing to produce open access resources, through to all levels of senior management. The attitudes, concerns and openness to Open Educational Resources of stakeholders from all positions within a HE institution will have implications for the participation of that institution within the OER movement. The many barriers to the whole-scale adoption of Open Educational Resources within the UK Higher Education system and the willingness of UK Higher Education Institutions to engage in the OER movement include institutional perspectives on the IPR of teaching materials developed by members of staff within the institution and financial viability, in addition to more sceptical attitudes of potential contributors. Keele University is one of seven academic partners in the C-Change project and researchers at Keele have produced open access resources across a wide variety of sustainability-related themes from reconstructing past environments (for example sea-level change); regional impacts of predicted climate change (for example implications to permafrost environments); through to strategies for a sustainable future, including topics on greening business and engineering solutions. The resources range from PowerPoint presentations to image banks, reading lists, and suggestions for classroom and coursework activities. These resources are designed to be useful for other higher education practitioners developing teaching resources in this area. This presentation will present the range of open access resources developed at Keele University in addition to the lessons learnt in repurposing resources for open access, and a summary of different attitudes within Higher Education Institutions towards the OER movement.

Changing Times, Changing Roles: FE Colleges' Perceptions of Their Changing Leadership Role in Contemporary UK Politico-Economic Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nwabude, Aaron A. R.; Ade-Ojo, Gordon O.

2012-01-01

The work reported in this paper is part of a study that explored some of the roles of Further Education Colleges in the United Kingdom. The paper is based largely on literature from books and on-line resources and short interviews from five British further education colleges, but also on the author's views and experience. The major aim of the…

Data Mashups: Potential Contribution to Decision Support on Climate Change and Health

PubMed Central

Fleming, Lora E.; Haines, Andy; Golding, Brian; Kessel, Anthony; Cichowska, Anna; Sabel, Clive E.; Depledge, Michael H.; Sarran, Christophe; Osborne, Nicholas J.; Whitmore, Ceri; Cocksedge, Nicola; Bloomfield, Daniel

2014-01-01

Linking environmental, socioeconomic and health datasets provides new insights into the potential associations between climate change and human health and wellbeing, and underpins the development of decision support tools that will promote resilience to climate change, and thus enable more effective adaptation. This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities presented by advances in data collection, storage, analysis, and access, particularly focusing on “data mashups”. These data mashups are integrations of different types and sources of data, frequently using open application programming interfaces and data sources, to produce enriched results that were not necessarily the original reason for assembling the raw source data. As an illustration of this potential, this paper describes a recently funded initiative to create such a facility in the UK for use in decision support around climate change and health, and provides examples of suitable sources of data and the purposes to which they can be directed, particularly for policy makers and public health decision makers. PMID:24499879

Data mashups: potential contribution to decision support on climate change and health.

PubMed

Fleming, Lora E; Haines, Andy; Golding, Brian; Kessel, Anthony; Cichowska, Anna; Sabel, Clive E; Depledge, Michael H; Sarran, Christophe; Osborne, Nicholas J; Whitmore, Ceri; Cocksedge, Nicola; Bloomfield, Daniel

2014-02-04

Linking environmental, socioeconomic and health datasets provides new insights into the potential associations between climate change and human health and wellbeing, and underpins the development of decision support tools that will promote resilience to climate change, and thus enable more effective adaptation. This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities presented by advances in data collection, storage, analysis, and access, particularly focusing on "data mashups". These data mashups are integrations of different types and sources of data, frequently using open application programming interfaces and data sources, to produce enriched results that were not necessarily the original reason for assembling the raw source data. As an illustration of this potential, this paper describes a recently funded initiative to create such a facility in the UK for use in decision support around climate change and health, and provides examples of suitable sources of data and the purposes to which they can be directed, particularly for policy makers and public health decision makers.

Reassessing Pliocene temperature gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierney, J. E.

2017-12-01

With CO2 levels similar to present, the Pliocene Warm Period (PWP) is one of our best analogs for climate change in the near future. Temperature proxy data from the PWP describe dramatically reduced zonal and meridional temperature gradients that have proved difficult to reproduce with climate model simulations. Recently, debate has emerged regarding the interpretation of the proxies used to infer Pliocene temperature gradients; these interpretations affect the magnitude of inferred change and the degree of inconsistency with existing climate model simulations of the PWP. Here, I revisit the issue using Bayesian proxy forward modeling and prediction that propagates known uncertainties in the Mg/Ca, UK'37, and TEX86 proxy systems. These new spatiotemporal predictions are quantitatively compared to PWP simulations to assess probabilistic agreement. Results show generally good agreement between existing Pliocene simulations from the PlioMIP ensemble and SST proxy data, suggesting that exotic changes in the ocean-atmosphere are not needed to explain the Pliocene climate state. Rather, the spatial changes in SST during the Pliocene are largely consistent with elevated CO2 forcing.

Ensemble of European regional climate simulations for the winter of 2013 and 2014 from HadAM3P-RM3P

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaller, Nathalie; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Massey, Neil R.; Bowery, Andy; Miller, Jonathan; Wilson, Simon; Wallom, David C. H.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-04-01

Large data sets used to study the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the 2013/14 floods in the UK are provided. The data consist of perturbed initial conditions simulations using the Weather@Home regional climate modelling framework. Two different base conditions, Actual, including atmospheric conditions (anthropogenic greenhouse gases and human induced aerosols) as at present and Natural, with these forcings all removed are available. The data set is made up of 13 different ensembles (2 actual and 11 natural) with each having more than 7500 members. The data is available as NetCDF V3 files representing monthly data within the period of interest (1st Dec 2013 to 15th February 2014) for both a specified European region at a 50 km horizontal resolution and globally at N96 resolution. The data is stored within the UK Natural and Environmental Research Council Centre for Environmental Data Analysis repository.

Psycho-Cultural Analysis of Disaster Risk Attitudes in Situation Awareness

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

the American Geophysical Union called for greater resilience in facing such hazards which would curb damages and economic losses (Lewis, 2012). Most of...Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation. Rugby , UK: Practical Action Publishing, ISBN 978-1-85339-786-8. UNISDR (2009). Terminology on Disaster Risk

An assessment of climate change impacts on micro-hydropower energy recovery in water supply networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brady, Jennifer; Patil, Sopan; McNabola, Aonghus; Gallagher, John; Coughlan, Paul; Harris, Ian; Packwood, Andrew; Williams, Prysor

2015-04-01

Continuity of service of a high quality water supply is vital in sustaining economic and social development. However, water supply and wastewater treatment are highly energy intensive processes and the overall cost of water provision is rising rapidly due to increased energy costs, higher capital investment requirements, and more stringent regulatory compliance in terms of both national and EU legislation. Under the EU Directive 2009/28/EC, both Ireland and the UK are required to have 16% and 15% respectively of their electricity generated by renewable sources by 2020. The projected impacts of climate change, population growth and urbanisation will place additional pressures on resources, further increasing future water demand which in turn will lead to higher energy consumption. Therefore, there is a need to achieve greater efficiencies across the water industry. The implementation of micro-hydropower turbines within the water supply network has shown considerable viability for energy recovery. This is achieved by harnessing energy at points of high flow or pressure along the network which can then be utilised on site or alternatively sold to the national grid. Micro-hydropower can provide greater energy security for utilities together with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. However, potential climate change impacts on water resources in the medium-to-long term currently act as a key barrier to industry confidence as changes in flow and pressure within the network can significantly alter the available energy for recovery. The present study aims to address these uncertainties and quantify the regional and local impacts of climate change on the viability of energy recovery across water infrastructure in Ireland and the UK. Specifically, the research focuses on assessing the potential future effects of climate change on flow rates at multiple pressure reducing valve sites along the water supply network and also in terms of flow at a number of wastewater treatment works. This analysis is achieved through development of an empirical model utilising historical climatic data in conjunction with low, medium and high emission IPCC climate scenarios using the HADCM3 global climate model across a baseline condition and two further time steps. Results highlight projected alterations in flow rates together with the potential for increases in the frequency and persistence of drought/flooding events and the resulting impacts on future energy recovery. Critical climate change limits are also identified indicating the tolerable ranges within which hydropower recovery is financially viable, thus allowing for more informed decision making across potential sites.

Phenological changes of the most commonly sampled ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) species in the UK environmental change network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozsgai, Gabor; Baird, John; Littlewood, Nick A.; Pakeman, Robin J.; Young, Mark R.

2018-03-01

Despite the important roles ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) play in ecosystems, the highly valued ecosystem services they provide, and ample descriptive documentation of their phenology, the relative impact of various environmental factors on carabid phenology is not well studied. Using the long-term pitfall trap capture data from 12 terrestrial Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites from the UK, we examined how changing climate influenced the phenology of common carabids, and the role particular climate components had on phenological parameters. Of the 28 species included in the analyses, 19 showed earlier start of their activity. This advance was particularly pronounced in the spring, supporting the view that early phenophases have a greater tendency to change and these changes are more directly controlled by temperature than later ones. Autumn activity extended only a few cases, suggesting a photoperiod-driven start of hibernation. No association was found between life-history traits and the ability of species to change their phenology. Air temperatures between April and June were the most important factors determining the start of activity of each species, whilst late season precipitation hastened the cessation of activity. The balance between the advantages and disadvantages of changing phenology on various levels is likely to depend on the species and even on local environmental criteria. The substantially changing phenology of Carabidae may influence their function in ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.

Phenological changes of the most commonly sampled ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) species in the UK environmental change network.

PubMed

Pozsgai, Gabor; Baird, John; Littlewood, Nick A; Pakeman, Robin J; Young, Mark R

2018-06-01

Despite the important roles ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) play in ecosystems, the highly valued ecosystem services they provide, and ample descriptive documentation of their phenology, the relative impact of various environmental factors on carabid phenology is not well studied. Using the long-term pitfall trap capture data from 12 terrestrial Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites from the UK, we examined how changing climate influenced the phenology of common carabids, and the role particular climate components had on phenological parameters. Of the 28 species included in the analyses, 19 showed earlier start of their activity. This advance was particularly pronounced in the spring, supporting the view that early phenophases have a greater tendency to change and these changes are more directly controlled by temperature than later ones. Autumn activity extended only a few cases, suggesting a photoperiod-driven start of hibernation. No association was found between life-history traits and the ability of species to change their phenology. Air temperatures between April and June were the most important factors determining the start of activity of each species, whilst late season precipitation hastened the cessation of activity. The balance between the advantages and disadvantages of changing phenology on various levels is likely to depend on the species and even on local environmental criteria. The substantially changing phenology of Carabidae may influence their function in ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.

Phenological changes of the most commonly sampled ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) species in the UK environmental change network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozsgai, Gabor; Baird, John; Littlewood, Nick A.; Pakeman, Robin J.; Young, Mark R.

2018-06-01

Despite the important roles ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) play in ecosystems, the highly valued ecosystem services they provide, and ample descriptive documentation of their phenology, the relative impact of various environmental factors on carabid phenology is not well studied. Using the long-term pitfall trap capture data from 12 terrestrial Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites from the UK, we examined how changing climate influenced the phenology of common carabids, and the role particular climate components had on phenological parameters. Of the 28 species included in the analyses, 19 showed earlier start of their activity. This advance was particularly pronounced in the spring, supporting the view that early phenophases have a greater tendency to change and these changes are more directly controlled by temperature than later ones. Autumn activity extended only a few cases, suggesting a photoperiod-driven start of hibernation. No association was found between life-history traits and the ability of species to change their phenology. Air temperatures between April and June were the most important factors determining the start of activity of each species, whilst late season precipitation hastened the cessation of activity. The balance between the advantages and disadvantages of changing phenology on various levels is likely to depend on the species and even on local environmental criteria. The substantially changing phenology of Carabidae may influence their function in ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.

Attributing spatial and temporal changes in soil C in the UK to environmental drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Amy; Cosby, Bernard; Quin, Sam; Henrys, Pete; Robinson, David; Emmett, Bridget

2015-04-01

The largest terrestrial pool of carbon is found in soils. Understanding how soil C responds to drivers of change (land use and management, atmospheric deposition, climate change) and how these responses are modified by inherent soil properties is crucial if we are to manage soils more sustainably in the future. Here we attempt to attribute spatial and temporal changes in UK soil C to environmental drivers using data from the UK Countryside Survey (CS), a national soil survey across England, Scotland and Wales repeated in 1978, 1998 and 2007. A mixed model approach was used to model soil C concentration (g C kg-1) and density (t C ha-1) and their absolute changes for the time periods 1978-1998, 1998-2007 and 1978-2007 across the CS sites using a variety of explanatory variables: soil (parent material, pH, moisture, Olsen-P, Shannon Diversity Index); atmospheric deposition (nitrogen and sulphur); climate (growing degree days and rain); and land use (aggregate vegetation class). Spatially, prediction of soil C concentration was good; soil moisture, pH, vegetation class and dominant grain size were all significant predictors. Field capacity also appeared to be important; however this data was only collected for a fraction of sites. N% was also strongly related to soil C concentration and density, as would be expected due to coupling of C and N in soil OM pools. Although N may drive soil C through impact on plant productivity, this cannot be separated from correlated C and N losses with OM decomposition, and hence N was not included as a driver for modelling. Predictive power for C density is not as strong as for concentration, which may reflect nonlinear relationships not represented by the modelling approach. Temporally, change in soil C is more difficult to explain, and model predictive power was lower. Change in soil pH was important in explaining change in C concentration and density, along with change in atmospheric deposition; decrease in deposition and associated soil acidity (increase in pH) was associated with a decrease in soil C concentration and density. Change in soil moisture or rainfall was also important. Inherent soil and site properties such as soil texture, vegetation class and parent material appeared to contribute most to the prediction of soil C change through modulation of the relationship between change in soil C and change in pH. Including anthropogenic and natural drivers in models of soil C stocks and changes in the UK enables assessment of the relative importance of each across the UK CS sites, however interactions among the drivers are more difficult to disentangle. Given the statistical significance of a number of drivers and soil variables in predicting soil C stocks and changes in the UK, it is important that these continue to be measured to allow better model development and more reliable predictions of future soil C conditions.

Quantification of Road Network Vulnerability and Traffic Impacts to Regional Landslide Hazards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dixon, Neil; Dijkstra, Tom

2015-04-01

Slope instability represents a prevalent hazard to transport networks. In the UK regional road networks are frequently disrupted by multiple slope failures triggered during intense precipitation events; primarily due to a degree of regional homogeneity of slope materials, geomorphology and weather conditions. It is of interest to examine how different locations and combinations of slope failure impact road networks, particularly in the context of projected climate change and a 40% increase in UK road demand by 2040. In this study an extensive number (>50 000) of multiple failure event scenarios are simulated within a dynamic micro simulation to assess traffic impacts during peak flow (7 - 10 AM). Possible failure locations are selected within the county of Gloucestershire (3150 km2) using historic failure sites and British Geological Survey GeoSure data. Initial investigations employ a multiple linear regression analyses to consider the severity of traffic impacts, as measured by time, in respect of spatial and topographical network characteristics including connectivity, density and capacity in proximity to failure sites; the network distance between disruptions in multiple failure scenarios is used to consider the effects of spatial clustering. The UK Department of Transport road travel demand and UKCP09 weather projection data to 2080 provide a suitable basis for traffic simulations and probabilistic slope stability assessments. Future work will thus focus on the development of a catastrophe risk model to simulate traffic impacts under various narratives of future travel demand and slope instability under climatic change. The results of this investigation shall contribute to the understanding of road network vulnerabilities and traffic impacts from climate driven slope hazards.

Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

PubMed

McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A

2017-01-01

There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes.

PubMed

Brown, Kathryn; DiMauro, Manuela; Johns, Daniel; Holmes, Gemma; Thompson, David; Russell, Andrew; Style, David

2018-06-13

The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Kathryn; DiMauro, Manuela; Johns, Daniel; Holmes, Gemma; Thompson, David; Russell, Andrew; Style, David

2018-06-01

The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Airborne Solar Radiant Flux Measurements During ACE-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergstrom, Robert W.; Russell, Philip B.; Jonsson, Haflidi

2000-01-01

Aerosol effects on atmospheric radiative fluxes provide a forcing function that can change the climate in potentially significant ways. This aerosol radiative forcing is a major source of uncertainty in understanding the climate change of the past century and predicting future climate. To help reduce this uncertainty, the 1996 Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) and the 1997 Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) measured the properties and radiative effects of aerosols over the Atlantic Ocean. In the ACE 2 program the solar radiant fluxes were measured on the Pelican aircraft and the UK Met Office C130. This poster will show results from the measurements for the aerosol effects during the clear column days. We will compare the results with calculations of the radiant fluxes.

The European Science Foundation (ESF) Network SEDIFLUX — An introduction and overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beylich, Achim A.; Etienne, Samuel; Etzelmüller, Bernd; Gordeev, Vyacheslav V.; Käyhkö, Jukka; Rachold, Volker; Russell, Andrew J.; Schmidt, Karl-Heinz; Sæmundsson, Þorsteinn; Tweed, Fiona S.; Warburton, Jeff

2006-10-01

Climate change will cause major changes in the Earth surface systems, especially in high-latitude and high-altitude cold environments. Geomorphological processes operating at the Earth's surface, transferring sediments and changing landforms are dependent on climate and will be significantly affected by climate change. More reliable modelling of sediment transfer processes operating under present-day climatic settings is needed to determine the consequences of climate change. It is necessary to collect and to compare data and knowledge from a wide range of different high-latitude and high-altitude cold environments and to develop more standardized methods and approaches for future research on sediment fluxes and relationships between climate and sedimentary transfer processes. In Europe, the wide range of high-latitude and high-altitude cold environments provides great potential to investigate climate-process relationships and to model the effects of climate change by using space for time substitution. The European Science Foundation (ESF) Network (01.01.2004-31.12.2006) "Sedimentary Source-to-Sink-Fluxes in Cold Environments" ( SEDIFLUX) is bringing together leading scientists, young scientists and research teams from different fields. SEDIFLUX forms a framework for an integrated and multidisciplinary investigation of the addressed topic and is a major catalyst for strengthening and extending contacts, collaborative research activities and mobility of scientists in Europe. It also points to areas within Europe that would benefit from wider research collaboration (e.g. Russia, Poland). The SEDIFLUX Steering Committee consists of scientists from seven European countries: Achim A. Beylich, Co-ordinator of SEDIFLUX (Trondheim, Norway), Samuel Etienne (Clermont-Ferrand, France), Bernd Etzelmüller (Oslo, Norway), Vyacheslav V. Gordeev (Moscow, Russia), Jukka Käyhkö (Turku, Finland), Volker Rachold (Potsdam, Germany), Andrew J. Russell (Newcastle, England, UK), Karl-Heinz Schmidt (Halle/S., Germany), Þorsteinn Sæmundsson (Sauðárkrókur, Iceland), Fiona S. Tweed (Staffordshire, England, UK) and Jeff Warburton (Durham, England, UK). SEDIFLUX activities include four Science Meetings: in Sauðárkrókur, Iceland (June 18th-June 21st, 2004), Clermont-Ferrand, France (January 20th-22nd, 2005), Durham, England, UK (December 15th-20th, 2005) and Trondheim, Norway (October 29th-November 1st, 2006), Steering Committee Meetings attached to these Science Meetings, a Session co-organized by SEDIFLUX at the Second European Permafrost Conference, June 12th-17th, 2005, in Potsdam, Germany, publication of Scientific Reports and Abstract Volumes, publication of Special Issues of Journals and of a SEDIFLUX Handbook, creation of a SEDIFLUX Database, an effective diffusion and dissemination of SEDIFLUX activities and outputs by using electronic media (Websites, Newsletters, Forum), invitations of leading experts from other parts of the world, policy makers and land managers to the Science Meetings. The ESF Network SEDIFLUX is organized in four Working Groups: I: Selection of critical test catchments; II: Analysis of geographical and geological settings of test catchments; III: Analysis of present-day fluxes; IV: Integration and data management. The major outputs from the Working Groups will be published in the SEDIFLUX Handbook, including guidelines for future monitoring programmes and a section, which is particularly targeted at end-users. A strong monitoring and operational data collection and more standardized methods provide a baseline for the development of reliable models and for future research in the changing high-latitude and high-altitude cold environments. ESF SEDIFLUX will continue and will be extended as I.A.G./A.I.G. Working Group on Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments (SEDIBUD). Apart from further collaborations and collaborative research activities project and programme applications at both the national and the European level following the three-year ESF Network are discussed and initiated.

Health, climate change and energy vulnerability: a retrospective assessment of strategic health authority policy and practice in England.

PubMed

Richardson, J; Kagawa, F; Nichols, A

2008-11-17

A number of policy documents suggest that health services should be taking climate change and sustainability seriously and recommendations have been made to mitigate and adapt to the challenges health care providers will face. Actions include, for example, moving towards locally sourced food supplies, reducing waste, energy consumption and travel, and including sustainability in policies and strategies. A Strategic Health Authority (SHA) is part of the National Health Service (NHS) in England. They are responsible for developing strategies for the local health services and ensuring high-quality performance. They manage the NHS locally and are a key link between the U.K. Department of Health and the NHS. They also ensure that national priorities are integrated into local plans. Thus they are in a key position to influence policies and practices to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climate change and promote sustainability. The aim of this study was to review publicly available documents produced by Strategic Health Authorities (SHA) to assess the extent to which current activity and planning locally takes into consideration climate change and energy vulnerability. A retrospective thematic content analysis of publicly available materials was undertaken by two researchers over a six month period in 2008. These materials were obtained from the websites of the 10 SHAs in England. Materials included annual reports, plans, policies and strategy documents. Of the 10 SHAs searched, 4 were found to have an absence of content related to climate change and sustainability. Of the remaining 6 SHAs that did include content related to climate change and energy vulnerability on their websites consistent themes were seen to emerge. These included commitment to a regional sustainability framework in collaboration with other agencies in the pursuit and promotion of sustainable development. Results indicate that many SHAs in England have yet to embrace sustainability, or to integrate preparations for climate change and energy vulnerability within their organisational strategies. Evidence also suggests that SHAs that have recognised the importance of sustainability within their documentation and policies have yet to fully demonstrate this in practice through the implementation of these policies. Further research is required to investigate means by which SHAs (U.K.) and agencies responsible for health service policy in other countries may be enabled to include a greater consideration of sustainability and climate change within their policies, and to find effective ways of implementing these policies within daily working practice.

Explaining topic prevalence in answers to open-ended survey questions about climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tvinnereim, Endre; Fløttum, Kjersti

2015-08-01

Citizens’ opinions are crucial for action on climate change, but are, owing to the complexity of the issue, diverse and potentially unformed. We contribute to the understanding of public views on climate change and to knowledge needed by decision-makers by using a new approach to analyse answers to the open survey question `what comes to mind when you hear the words `climate change’?’. We apply automated text analysis, specifically structural topic modelling, which induces distinct topics based on the relative frequencies of the words used in 2,115 responses. From these data, originating from the new, nationally representative Norwegian Citizen Panel, four distinct topics emerge: Weather/Ice, Future/Impact, Money/Consumption and Attribution. We find that Norwegians emphasize societal aspects of climate change more than do respondents in previous US and UK studies. Furthermore, variables that explain variation in closed questions, such as gender and education, yield different and surprising results when employed to explain variation in what respondents emphasize. Finally, the sharp distinction between scepticism and acceptance of conventional climate science, often seen in previous studies, blurs in many textual responses as scepticism frequently turns into ambivalence.

Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario

PubMed Central

Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

2016-01-01

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)—weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location. PMID:27788208

Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

PubMed

Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

2016-01-01

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location.

Long Term Large Scale river nutrient changes across the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Victoria; Naden, Pam; Tipping, Ed; Davies, Helen; Davies, Jessica; Dragosits, Ulli; Muhammed, Shibu; Quinton, John; Stuart, Marianne; Whitmore, Andy; Wu, Lianhai

2017-04-01

During recent decades and centuries, pools and fluxes of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (C, N and P) in UK rivers and ecosystems have been transformed by the spread and fertiliser-based intensification of agriculture (necessary to sustain human populations), by atmospheric pollution, by human waste (rising in line with population growth), and now by climate change. The principal objective of the UK's NERC-funded Macronutrients LTLS research project has been to account for observable terrestrial and aquatic pools, concentrations and fluxes of C, N and P on the basis of past inputs, biotic and abiotic interactions, and transport processes. More specifically, over the last 200 years, what have been the temporal responses of plant and soil nutrient pools in different UK catchments to nutrient enrichment, and what have been the consequent effects on nutrient transfers from land to the atmosphere, freshwaters and estuaries? The work described here addresses the second question by providing an integrated quantitative description of the interlinked land and water pools and annual fluxes of C, N and P for UK catchments over time. A national-scale modelling environment has been developed, combining simple physically-based gridded models that can be parameterised using recent observations before application to long timescales. The LTLS Integrated Model (LTLS-IM) uses readily-available driving data (climate, land-use, nutrient inputs, topography), and model estimates of both terrestrial and freshwater nutrient loads have been compared with measurements from sites across the UK. Here, the focus is on the freshwater nutrient component of the LTLS-IM, but the terrestrial nutrient inputs required for this are provided by models of nutrient processes in semi-natural and agricultural systems, and from simple models of nutrients arising from human waste. In the freshwater model, lateral routing of dissolved and particulate nutrients and within-river processing such as denitrification, decomposition and chlorophyll growth are undertaken, and the effects of groundwater storage and processes in lakes connected to the river network can be included. Following assessment against observations of terrestrial and nutrient fluxes in rivers across the UK, the LTLS-IM has been run nationally for 200 years (1800 to 2010), and the work presented here provides, for the first time, national, regional or catchment estimates of the origins and trends in riverine nutrients in the period following the industrial revolution. Ongoing work is now exploring the effects of future climate, waste water treatment and land-management scenarios on water quality, and the effects of nutrient enrichment on the development of eutrophication in rivers.

A description and evaluation of an air quality model nested within global and regional composition-climate models using MetUM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, Lucy S.; Dalvi, Mohit; Folberth, Gerd; McInnes, Rachel N.; Agnew, Paul; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Savage, Nicholas H.; Tilbee, Marie

2017-11-01

There is a clear need for the development of modelling frameworks for both climate change and air quality to help inform policies for addressing these issues simultaneously. This paper presents an initial attempt to develop a single modelling framework, by introducing a greater degree of consistency in the meteorological modelling framework by using a two-step, one-way nested configuration of models, from a global composition-climate model (GCCM) (140 km resolution) to a regional composition-climate model covering Europe (RCCM) (50 km resolution) and finally to a high (12 km) resolution model over the UK (AQUM). The latter model is used to produce routine air quality forecasts for the UK. All three models are based on the Met Office's Unified Model (MetUM). In order to better understand the impact of resolution on the downscaling of projections of future climate and air quality, we have used this nest of models to simulate a 5-year period using present-day emissions and under present-day climate conditions. We also consider the impact of running the higher-resolution model with higher spatial resolution emissions, rather than simply regridding emissions from the RCCM. We present an evaluation of the models compared to in situ air quality observations over the UK, plus a comparison against an independent 1 km resolution gridded dataset, derived from a combination of modelling and observations, effectively producing an analysis of annual mean surface pollutant concentrations. We show that using a high-resolution model over the UK has some benefits in improving air quality modelling, but that the use of higher spatial resolution emissions is important to capture local variations in concentrations, particularly for primary pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. For secondary pollutants such as ozone and the secondary component of PM10, the benefits of a higher-resolution nested model are more limited and reasons for this are discussed. This study highlights the point that the resolution of models is not the only factor in determining model performance - consistency between nested models is also important.

Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge- uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I. P.

2006-06-01

An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socio-economic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown future changes are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists.

The Impacts of Policies To Meet The UK Climate Change Act Target on Air Quality - An Explicit Modelling Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, M.; Beevers, S.; Lott, M. C.; Kitwiroon, N.

2016-12-01

This paper presents a preliminary analysis of different pathways to meet the UK Climate Change Act target for 2050, of an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions on a base year of 1990. The pathways can result in low levels of air pollution emissions through the use of renewables and nuclear power. But large increases in biomass burning and the continued use of diesel cars they can result in larger air quality impacts. The work evaluated the air quality impacts in several pathways using an energy system optimisation model (UK TIMES) and a chemical transport model (CMAQ). The work described in this paper goes beyond the `damage cost' approach where only emissions in each are assessed. In this work we used scenarios produced by the UK TIMES model which we converted into air pollution emissions. Emissions of ammonia from agriculture are not attributed to the energy system and are thus not captured by energy system models, yet are crucial in forming PM2.5, acknowledged to be currently the most important pollutant associated with premature deaths. Our model includes these emissions and other non-energy sources of hydrocarbons which lead to the formation of ozone, another significant cause of air pollution health impacts. A key policy issue is how much biogenic hydrocarbons contribute to ozone formation compared with man-made emissions. We modelled pollution concentrations at a resolution of 7 km across the UK and at 2km in urban areas. These results allow us to estimate changes in premature mortality and morbidity associated with the changes in air pollution and subsequently the economic cost of the impacts on public health. The work shows that in the `clean' scenario, urban exposures to particles (PM2.5) and NO2 could decrease by very large amounts, but ozone exposures are likely to increase without further significant reductions world-wide. Large increases in biomass use however could lead to increases in urban levels of carcinogens and primary PM.

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description - Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, D. B.; Mercado, L. M.; Sitch, S.; Jones, C. D.; Gedney, N.; Best, M. J.; Pryor, M.; Rooney, G. G.; Essery, R. L. H.; Blyth, E.; Boucher, O.; Harding, R. J.; Huntingford, C.; Cox, P. M.

2011-09-01

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is a process-based model that simulates the fluxes of carbon, water, energy and momentum between the land surface and the atmosphere. Many studies have demonstrated the important role of the land surface in the functioning of the Earth System. Different versions of JULES have been employed to quantify the effects on the land carbon sink of climate change, increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, changing atmospheric aerosols and tropospheric ozone, and the response of methane emissions from wetlands to climate change. This paper describes the consolidation of these advances in the modelling of carbon fluxes and stores, in both the vegetation and soil, in version 2.2 of JULES. Features include a multi-layer canopy scheme for light interception, including a sunfleck penetration scheme, a coupled scheme of leaf photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, representation of the effects of ozone on leaf physiology, and a description of methane emissions from wetlands. JULES represents the carbon allocation, growth and population dynamics of five plant functional types. The turnover of carbon from living plant tissues is fed into a 4-pool soil carbon model. The process-based descriptions of key ecological processes and trace gas fluxes in JULES mean that this community model is well-suited for use in carbon cycle, climate change and impacts studies, either in standalone mode or as the land component of a coupled Earth system model.

Hydro-meteorological drought event sets in the UK based on a large ensemble of global-regional climate simulations: climatology, drivers and changes in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, B. P.; Massey, N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Allen, M. R.; Jones, R.; Hall, J. W.

2016-12-01

Extreme events being rare by definition, accurately quantifying the probabilities associated with a given event is difficult. This is particularly true for droughts, for which only few events are available in the observational record owing to their long-lasting characteristics. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying present and future risks associated with droughts in the UK. To do so, a large number of modelled weather time series for "synthetic" drought events are being fed into hydrological and impact models to assess their impacts on various sectors (social sciences, economy, industry, agriculture, and ecosystems). Here, we present and analyse the hydro-meteorological drought event sets that have been produced with a new version of weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model. Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future time slices (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally coherent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. Beside presenting the methodology and validation of the event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK and the drivers of drought. In particular, we examine their sensitivity to sea surface temperature and sea ice patterns, both in the recent past and for future projections. How drought risk in the UK can be expected to change in the future will also be discussed. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. Reference: [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Sustainable Schools through Science Across the World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutler, Marianne

2007-01-01

Children need new skills if they are to become part of the solution to challenges such as climate change rather than part of the problem. So states the UK's National Framework for Sustainable Schools. Skills include expressing points of view, weighing up evidence, cooperating, thinking critically, tackling real problems, participating in…

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

A critical review of hydrological data collection for assessing preservation risk for urban waterlogged archaeology: A case study from the City of York, UK.

PubMed

Holden, Joseph; Howard, Andy J; West, L Jared; Maxfield, Eleanor; Panter, Ian; Oxley, John

2009-08-01

Environmental change caused by urban development, possibly augmented by climate change, may result in accelerated decay of in situ archaeological resources. Damage may be related to changes in hydrological processes. Such archaeological resources have to be considered in environmental planning. In this paper we highlight the need for improved hydrological data from urban archaeological sites using the case study of the City of York, UK, arguably one of the most well studied and well preserved urban archaeological environments globally. We suggest that the quality of hydrological data collected during routine surveys and experimental work must be improved and standardised in order for us to produce reliable archaeological risk models for urban sites.

Climatic and chemical drivers of trends in DOC in northern surface waters in Europa and North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, Heleen A.; Monteith, Don T.; Stoddard, John L.

2016-04-01

Concentrations of DOC in boreal surface waters have increased to levels that create challenges for water treatment plants, and that potentially impact lake habitat through increased anoxia and thermal mixing, and productivity. Aquatic transport of DOC from land to oceans is likely to increase, even if runoff patterns would remain stable. Reduced acid deposition appears to be a dominant driver behind the increase in DOC concentrations, through increasing organic matter solubility. We hypothesize that the higher solubility of organic matter makes DOC more susceptible to climate change. Here, we present trends in DOC from circa 500 lakes and streams in subarctic, boreal and temperate headwater catchments in Europe (UK, Fennoscandia, Czech Republic, Slovakia) and North America (Northeastern US, Ontario, Atlantic Canada) from 1990 until 2012; an extension of the trend analysis presented in Monteith et al. (2007). The water chemical data stem from national monitoring networks, assembled by the ICP Waters network. Sampling frequencies vary from 1 to 52 samples per year. Climate data were obtained from Climate Research Unit in the UK. Trends were calculated using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen-slope estimator. We test 1) if DOC responds to changes in the rate of decline in acid deposition, and 2) if trends in temperature and precipitation affect trends and variability in DOC. Positive trends dominate: the median (±2.5% quartile) of the absolute and relative DOC trends is +0.06 (+0.36 to -0.02) mg C L-1 yr-1 and +1.4 (+4.7 to -0.9) % yr-1, respectively. Overall, the trends do not level off when comparing 1990-2004, and 1998-2012, except in the UK and Atlantic Canada. These two regions are strongly impacted by seasalt deposition but may also experience stronger warming than elsewhere. The response of DOC to changes in SO4 (expressed as trend ratios) is stronger in 1998-2012 than in 1990-2004. We will explore whether this changing relates to increasing dominance of drivers, such as temperature or precipitation, and will present multivariate models of DOC trends in relation to climate and deposition. References Monteith DT, Stoddard JL, Evans CD, de Wit HA, Forsius M, Hogasen T, Wilander A, Skjelkvale BL, Jeffries DS, Vuorenmaa J, Keller B, Kopacek J, Vesely J (2007) Dissolved organic carbon trends resulting from changes in atmospheric deposition chemistry. Nature 450(7169): 537-540

Effects of climate change on wave height at the coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, J.

2003-04-01

To make progress towards the ultimate objective of predicting coastal vulnerability to climate change, we need to predict the probability of extreme values of sea level and wave height, and their likely variation with changing climate. There is evidence of changes in sea level and wave height on various time-scales. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation appears to be responsible for increasing wave height in the North Atlantic over recent decades. The impact of changes in wave height in the North Atlantic at the coastline in the North Sea, the Hebrides/Malin Shelf and the English Channel will be quite different. Three different, and contrasting areas are examined The effect of changing sea levels, due to global warming and changes in tides and surge height and frequency, is combined with increases in offshore wave height. Coastal wave modelling, using the WAM and SWAN wave models, provides a useful tool for examining the possible impacts of climate change at the coast. This study is part of a Tyndall Centre project which is examining the vulnerability of the UK coast to changing wave climate and sea level. These changes are likely to be especially important in low-lying areas with coastal wetlands such as the north Norfolk coast, which has been selected as a detailed case study area. In this area there are offshore shallow banks and extensive inter-tidal areas. There are transitions from upper marsh to freshwater grazing marshes, sand dunes, shingle beaches, mudflats and sandflats. Many internationally important and varied habitats are threatened by rising sea levels and changes in storminess due to potential climate change effects. Likely changes in overtopping of coastal embankments, inundation of intertidal areas, sediment transport and coastal erosion are examined. Changes in low water level may be important as well as high water. The second area of study is Christchurch Bay in the English Channel. The English Channel is exposed to swell from the North Atlantic and a moderate tidal range. The coastline is quite developed with popular beaches. There are defended and undefended stretches of coastline. The waves reaching the coastline are modulated by the strong tidal streams in the Solent and shoal areas like Shingles Bank. The Sea of the Hebrides is an area important for fishing and tourism, but is the part of the UK exposed to the most severe waves, being most directly connected with the North Atlantic. The UK’s first wave power plant is in operation on Islay. Sea level changes are likely to be relatively unimportant but changes in wave climate could have a direct impact on local economic activity.

Concern and Helplessness: Citizens' Assessments of Individual and Collective Action on the Provision of Environmental Public Goods in a Coastal City at Risk of Inundation.

PubMed

Bunyan, Sabrina; Collins, Alan; Duffy, David

2016-09-01

Survey data from a representative sample of 1005 households in the UK coastal city of Portsmouth are examined to discern commonalities and contrasts in their assessment of actions to address the related environmental threats of climate change and flooding. The city of Portsmouth is at risk of inundation from rising sea levels and the city has recent experience of flooding. A simple local and global public good framework is used to organize the understanding of reported attitudes and their determinants. The findings show that it is not always the same individuals who express concern about both climate change and flooding. Investigation into perceptions of helplessness in tackling climate change indicates that individuals more often perceived themselves to be helpless in tackling climate but perceived local collective action to be more effective. Individuals considered local collective action to be more effective in tackling climate change. Perceptions of individual helplessness are in turn related to reported concern. Several socioeconomic characteristics of individuals are shown to be useful in explaining the determinants of concern and perceptions of helplessness among respondents. As other cities face climate change-related challenges, the empirical findings, based upon attitudes from an alert urban population, are informative to policy design.

Concern and Helplessness: Citizens' Assessments of Individual and Collective Action on the Provision of Environmental Public Goods in a Coastal City at Risk of Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunyan, Sabrina; Collins, Alan; Duffy, David

2016-09-01

Survey data from a representative sample of 1005 households in the UK coastal city of Portsmouth are examined to discern commonalities and contrasts in their assessment of actions to address the related environmental threats of climate change and flooding. The city of Portsmouth is at risk of inundation from rising sea levels and the city has recent experience of flooding. A simple local and global public good framework is used to organize the understanding of reported attitudes and their determinants. The findings show that it is not always the same individuals who express concern about both climate change and flooding. Investigation into perceptions of helplessness in tackling climate change indicates that individuals more often perceived themselves to be helpless in tackling climate but perceived local collective action to be more effective. Individuals considered local collective action to be more effective in tackling climate change. Perceptions of individual helplessness are in turn related to reported concern. Several socioeconomic characteristics of individuals are shown to be useful in explaining the determinants of concern and perceptions of helplessness among respondents. As other cities face climate change-related challenges, the empirical findings, based upon attitudes from an alert urban population, are informative to policy design.

Impact of climate change on European weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duchez, Aurelie; Forryan, Alex; Hirschi, Joel; Sinha, Bablu; New, Adrian; Freychet, Nicolas; Scaife, Adam; Graham, Tim

2015-04-01

An emerging science consensus is that global climate change will result in more extreme weather events with concomitant increasing financial losses. Key questions that arise are: Can an upward trend in natural extreme events be recognised and predicted at the European scale? What are the key drivers within the climate system that are changing and making extreme weather events more frequent, more intense, or both? Using state-of-the-art coupled climate simulations from the UK Met Office (HadGEM3-GC2, historical and future scenario runs) as well as reanalysis data, we highlight the potential of the currently most advanced forecasting systems to progress understanding of the causative drivers of European weather extremes, and assess future frequency and intensity of extreme weather under various climate change scenarios. We characterize European extremes in these simulations using a subset of the 27 core indices for temperature and precipitation from The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (Tank et al., 2009). We focus on temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g. extremes in daily and monthly precipitation and temperatures) and relate them to the atmospheric modes of variability over Europe in order to establish the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that are conducive to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperature events. Klein Tank, Albert M.G., and Francis W. Zwiers. Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation. WMO-TD No. 1500. Climate Data and Monitoring. World Meteorological Organization, 2009.

An alternate approach to assessing climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Casey; Wilby, Robert L.

2012-10-01

U.S. federal agencies are now required to review the potential impacts of climate change on their assets and missions. Similar arrangements are also in place in the United Kingdom under reporting powers for key infrastructure providers (http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/sectors/reporting-authorities/reporting-authorities-reports/). These requirements reflect growing concern about climate resilience and the management of long-lived assets. At one level, analyzing climate risks is a matter of due diligence, given mounting scientific evidence. However, there is no consensus about the means for doing so nor about whether climate models are even ft for the purpose; in addition, several important issues are often overlooked when incorporating climate information into adaptation decisions. An alternative to the scenarioled strategy, such as an approach based on a vulnerability analysis ("stress test"), may identify practical options for resource managers.

Long-term resistance to simulated climate change in an infertile grassland.

PubMed

Grime, J Philip; Fridley, Jason D; Askew, Andrew P; Thompson, Ken; Hodgson, John G; Bennett, Chris R

2008-07-22

Climate shifts over this century are widely expected to alter the structure and functioning of temperate plant communities. However, long-term climate experiments in natural vegetation are rare and largely confined to systems with the capacity for rapid compositional change. In unproductive, grazed grassland at Buxton in northern England (U.K.), one of the longest running experimental manipulations of temperature and rainfall reveals vegetation highly resistant to climate shifts maintained over 13 yr. Here we document this resistance in the form of: (i) constancy in the relative abundance of growth forms and maintained dominance by long-lived, slow-growing grasses, sedges, and small forbs; (ii) immediate but minor shifts in the abundance of several species that have remained stable over the course of the experiment; (iii) no change in productivity in response to climate treatments with the exception of reduction from chronic summer drought; and (iv) only minor species losses in response to drought and winter heating. Overall, compositional changes induced by 13-yr exposure to climate regime change were less than short-term fluctuations in species abundances driven by interannual climate fluctuations. The lack of progressive compositional change, coupled with the long-term historical persistence of unproductive grasslands in northern England, suggests the community at Buxton possesses a stabilizing capacity that leads to long-term persistence of dominant species. Unproductive ecosystems provide a refuge for many threatened plants and animals and perform a diversity of ecosystem services. Our results support the view that changing land use and overexploitation rather than climate change per se constitute the primary threats to these fragile ecosystems.

Virgin's Knight tackles climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banks, Michael

2008-11-01

"There is no greater or more immediate challenge than that posed by climate change," said Sir Richard Branson, chairman of the Virgin group, via video-link at the 59th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) held in Glasgow in the UK at the end of September. That grand statement may seem like a lot of hot air for the entrepreneur best known for his attempt to circumnavigate the globe by balloon. But Branson went on to reveal that Virgin Galactic, which aims to fly passengers 100 km into space for 200 000 per trip, will also provide room on its craft for a series of scientific experiments to study the Earth's atmosphere.

Tailoring the visual communication of climate projections for local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK

PubMed Central

Lorenz, Susanne; Dessai, Suraje; Forster, Piers M.; Paavola, Jouni

2015-01-01

Visualizations are widely used in the communication of climate projections. However, their effectiveness has rarely been assessed among their target audience. Given recent calls to increase the usability of climate information through the tailoring of climate projections, it is imperative to assess the effectiveness of different visualizations. This paper explores the complexities of tailoring through an online survey conducted with 162 local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK. The survey examined respondents’ assessed and perceived comprehension (PC) of visual representations of climate projections as well as preferences for using different visualizations in communicating and planning for a changing climate. Comprehension and use are tested using four different graph formats, which are split into two pairs. Within each pair the information content is the same but is visualized differently. We show that even within a fairly homogeneous user group, such as local adaptation practitioners, there are clear differences in respondents’ comprehension of and preference for visualizations. We do not find a consistent association between assessed comprehension and PC or use within the two pairs of visualizations that we analysed. There is, however, a clear link between PC and use of graph format. This suggests that respondents use what they think they understand the best, rather than what they actually understand the best. These findings highlight that audience-specific targeted communication may be more complex and challenging than previously recognized. PMID:26460109

Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe.

PubMed

Orru, Hans; Andersson, Camilla; Ebi, Kristie L; Langner, Joakim; Aström, Christofer; Forsberg, Bertil

2013-02-01

Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change. Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with the model of atmospheric transport and chemistry (MATCH)-RCA3 (50×50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. We applied a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity. Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increases in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal, with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected. The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.

The decomposition of vegetation and soil in marginal peat-forming landscapes: climate simulations to quantify gaseous and dissolved carbon fluxes and the effects on peat accumulation and drinking water treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritson, J.; Bell, M.; Clark, J. M.; Graham, N.; Templeton, M.; Brazier, R.; Verhoef, A.; Freeman, C.

2013-12-01

Peatlands in the UK represent a large proportion of the soil carbon store, however there is concern that some systems may be switching from sinks to sources of carbon. The accumulation of organic material in peatlands results from the slow rates of decomposition typically occurring in these regions. Climate change may lead to faster decomposition which, if not matched by an equivalent increase in net primary productivity and litter fall, may tip the balance between source and sink. Recent trends have seen a greater flux of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from peatlands to surface waters and a change in DOM character, presenting challenges to water treatment, for example in terms of increased production of disinfectant by-products (DBPs). Peat systems border a large proportion of reservoirs in the UK so uncertainty regarding DOM quantity and quality is a concern for water utilities. This study considered five peatland vegetation types (Sphagnum spp., Calluna vulgaris, Molinea caerulea, peat soil and mixed litter) collected from the Exmoor National Park, UK where it is hypothesised that peat formation may be strongly affected by future changes to climate. A factorial experiment design to simulate climate was used, considering vegetation type, temperature and rainfall amount using a current baseline and predictions from the UKCP09 model. Gaseous fluxes of carbon were monitored over a two month period to quantify the effect on carbon mineralisation rates while 13C NMR analysis was employed to track which classes of compounds decayed preferentially. The DOM collected was characterised using UV and fluorescence techniques before being subject to standard drinking water treatment processes (coagulation/flocculation followed by chlorination). The effect of the experimental factors on DOM amenability to removal and propensity to form DBPs was then considered, with both trihalomethane (THM) and haloacetonitrile (HAN) DBP classes monitored. Initial results have shown a statistically significant (Mann-Whitney U) difference in THM formation (p<0.05) as well as the amount of DOM produced and specific UV absorption at 254nm (p<0.01) between vegetation classes.

Media discourses of low carbon housing: The marginalisation of social and behavioural dimensions within the British broadsheet press.

PubMed

Cherry, Catherine; Hopfe, Christina; MacGillivray, Brian; Pidgeon, Nick

2015-04-01

Decarbonising housing is a key UK government policy to mitigate climate change. Using discourse analysis, we assess how low carbon housing is portrayed within British broadsheet media. Three distinct storylines were identified. Dominating the discourse, Zero carbon housing promotes new-build, low carbon houses as offering high technology solutions to the climate problem. Retrofitting homes emphasises the need to reduce emissions within existing housing, tackling both climate change and rising fuel prices. A more marginal discourse, Sustainable living, frames low carbon houses as related to individual identities and 'off-grid' or greener lifestyles. Our analysis demonstrates that technical and economic paradigms dominate media discourse on low carbon housing, marginalising social and behavioural aspects. © The Author(s) 2013.

The impacts of climate on retailing in the UK with particular reference to the anomalously hot summer of 1995

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agnew, M. D.; Palutikof, J. P.

1999-11-01

The impacts on the UK retailing sector of the extreme climate of 1995 are analysed in the context of monthly climate conditions in the previous two decades. Over the period from November 1994 to October 1995, the mean monthly Central England temperature (CET) was 1.6°C above the 1961-1990 normal, the highest mean 12-month temperature since the CET records began in 1659. Retail activities are geared towards average conditions and are therefore affected in the short-term by any unexpected change in supply and demand. This study focuses on those areas of retailing where the responses to climate in terms of a change in consumer demand are most likely to be clear: first, clothing and footwear and, second, food and drink. Economic time series are extracted from official government publications (1972-1995). Stepwise multiple regressions are performed to assess the amount of variance in the retail series accounted for by monthly temperature, rainfall and sunshine indices.Statistically significant associations are found between retail and climate indices over the 1972-1995 study period, these are generally strongest in winter and spring, and weakest in summer. There is some indication of an increase in the climate-sensitivity of the retail series in unusually hot years. This may be a function of factors such as: just-in-time supply chains, refrigeration and changes in the trading environment. The anomalous climate of 1995 has the greatest economic impact on the clothing and footwear market, with extreme temperatures at the end of the summer associated with a decline in the market. An attempt is made to place a monetary value on the 1995 impacts. It is estimated that the clothing and footwear market sustained a loss of #383 million (1.7% of turnover). However, the extreme climate of 1995 brought gains to the beer and wine industries of #123 million (0.9% of turnover) and #11 million (0.2% of turnover), respectively, and a gain of approximately #25 million (1.8% of turnover) to the fruit and vegetable markets.

The CSAICLAWPS project: a multi-scalar, multi-data source approach to providing climate services for both modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields and development of community-level adaptive capacity for sustainable food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N. D.; Fowler, H. J.

2017-12-01

The "Climate-smart agriculture implementation through community-focused pursuit of land and water productivity in South Asia" (CSAICLAWPS) project is a research initiative funded by the (UK) Royal Society through its Challenge Grants programme which is part of the broader UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF). CSAICLAWPS has three objectives: a) development of "added-value" - bias assessed, statistically down-scaled - climate projections for selected case study sites across South Asia; b) investigation of crop failure modes under both present (observed) and future (projected) conditions; and c) facilitation of developing local adaptive capacity and resilience through stakeholder engagement. At AGU we will be presenting both next steps and progress to date toward these three objectives: [A] We have carried out bias assessments of a substantial multi-model RCM ensemble (MME) from the CORDEX South Asia (CORDEXdomain for case studies in three countries - Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka - and (stochastically) produced synthetic time-series for these sites from local observations using a Python-based implementation of the principles underlying the Climate Research Unit Weather Generator (CRU-WG) in order to enable probabilistic simulation of current crop yields. [B] We have characterised present response of local crop yields to climate variability in key case study sites using AquaCrop simulations parameterised based on input (agronomic practices, soil conditions, etc) from smallholder farmers. [C] We have implemented community-based hydro-climatological monitoring in several case study "revenue villages" (panchayats) in the Nainital District of Uttarakhand. The purpose of this is not only to increase availability of meteorological data, but also has the aspiration of, over time, leading to enhanced quantitative awareness of present climate variability and potential future conditions (as projected by RCMs). Next steps in our work will include: 1) future crop yield simulations driven by "perturbation" of synthetic time-series using "change factors from the CORDEX-SA MME; 2) stakeholder dialogues critically evaluating potential strategies at the grassroots (implementation) level to mitigate impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

NHS plans to lead on carbon cutting.

PubMed

Pearson, Susan

2008-10-01

While the UK's Climate Change Bill is debated in Parliament, the NHS has been putting in place its plans to lead the way in public sector carbon cutting, which aim for a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Susan Pearson talks to Dr David Pencheon, director of the new NHS Sustainable Development Unit.

The UK water crisis: What actions the government and private sector need to take.

PubMed

Skelton, Emmeline

2015-01-01

The paper discusses why resilience is increasingly important for companies to measure and address, thinking about relevant issues such as climate change and extreme weather. It gives insight on how companies measure their resilience and that it is more than a business continuity issue; indeed, it is a board issue. The paper looks at the role of regulation for companies with national critical infrastructure in putting in resilience guidelines and discusses the benefits of regulation in resilience, presenting a case study of the UK Water Services Regulation Authority resilience guidelines.

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

PubMed

Brown, Iain

2018-06-13

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Iain

2018-06-01

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R. F.; Wilby, R. L.; Brown, K.; Watkiss, P.; Betts, Richard A.; Murphy, James M.; Lowe, Jason A.

2018-06-01

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure.

PubMed

Dawson, Richard J; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N; Watson, Geoff V R; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W

2018-06-13

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Authors.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

2018-06-01

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

PubMed Central

Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

2018-01-01

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

Global cropland and greenhouse gas impacts of UK food supply are increasingly located overseas

PubMed Central

Macdiarmid, Jennie I.

2016-01-01

Producing sufficient, healthy food for a growing world population amid a changing climate is a major challenge for the twenty-first century. Agricultural trade could help alleviate this challenge by using comparative productivity advantages between countries. However, agricultural trade has implications for national food security and could displace environmental impacts from developed to developing countries. This study illustrates the global effects resulting from the agricultural trade of a single country, by analysing the global cropland and greenhouse gas impacts of the UK's food and feed supply. The global cropland footprint associated with the UK food and feed supply increased by 2022 kha (+23%) from 1986 to 2009. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) associated with fertilizer and manure application, and rice cultivation remained relatively constant at 7.9 Mt CO2e between 1987 and 2008. Including GHGE from land-use change, however, leads to an increase from 19.1 in 1987 to 21.9 Mt CO2e in 2008. The UK is currently importing over 50% of its food and feed, whereas 70% and 64% of the associated cropland and GHGE impacts, respectively, are located abroad. These results imply that the UK is increasingly reliant on external resources and that the environmental impact of its food supply is increasingly displaced overseas. PMID:26740576

Seasonal and decadal information towards climate services: EUPORIAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buontempo, Carlo; Hewitt, Chris

2013-04-01

Societies have always faced challenges and opportunities arising from variations in climate, and have often flourished or collapsed depending on their ability to adapt to such changes. Recent advances in our understanding and ability to forecast climate variability and climate change have meant that skilful predictions are beginning to be routinely made on seasonal to decadal (s2d) timescales. Such forecasts have the potential to be of great value to a wide range of decision-making, where outcomes are strongly influenced by variations in the climate. The European Commission have recently commissioned a major four year long project (EUPORIAS) to develop prototype end-to-end climate impact prediction services operating on a seasonal to decadal timescale, and assess their value in informing decision-making. EUPORIAS commenced on 1 November 2012, coordinated by the UK Met Office leading a consortium of 24 organisations representing world-class European climate research and climate service centres, expertise in impacts assessments and seasonal predictions, two United Nations agencies, specialists in new media, and commercial companies in climate-vulnerable sectors such as energy, water and tourism. The paper describes the setup of the project, its main outcome and some of the very preliminary results.

Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.

PubMed

Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; Wilkinson, Paul; Pattenden, Sam; Vieno, Massimo; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard; Chalabi, Zaid; Kovats, Sari; Milojevic, Ai; Stevenson, David S

2009-12-21

We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation. Elevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.

Mid Holocene climate change and impact on evolution on human settlements in northern central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krossa, V. R.; Kim, H.-J.; Moros, M.; Dörfler, W.; Blanz, T.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.; Schneider, R.

2012-04-01

The Mid Holocene climate evolution in the North Atlantic was marked by a climate optimum, followed by a transition toward colder conditions, starting at about 6 ka BP. This climate transition was accompanied by a radical change from a hunter-gatherer-fisher society toward a society based on agriculture and the domestication of animals in northern Germany and Denmark. The aim of this study is to better understand the potential impact of oceanic and terrestrial climate change on such human societies in northern Germany and Denmark. We present paleoclimatic and paleoecological reconstructions from sites surrounding the landscape where these human groups settled during the Mid Holocene. These reconstructions include a high resolution UK'37 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) record from the Skagerrak, an MBT-CBT record for estimating lake temperature from Lake Belau, Northern Germany using the calibration set of Tierney et al. (2010), and a Loss On Ignition (LOI) record representing the anoxic/oxic state from the Gotland Basin, Baltic Sea. The UK'37 record is interpreted to reflect warm season SSTs, and shows a step-like temperature drop of about 6 °C from 6.5 to 5.0 ka BP, immediately followed by a 2 °C warming at about 5.0 ka BP. The MBT-CBT lake record probably reflects mean annual temperature at our site. The record suggests mild winters and/or warm summers until 5.3 ka BP, followed by 2 °C colder conditions within 500 years. The temperature proxies suggest a positive mode in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) until around 5.3 ka BP, followed by conditions typical of a negative NAO mode. Furthermore, the LOI record from the Gotland Basin implies a trend from oxic to more anoxic conditions, starting at ~5.8 ka BP. More severe anoxic conditions could have led to an ecosystem shift within the Baltic Sea, resulting in a decline of copepods, codfish and seals, thus influencing mesolithic hunting activity. The climatic and ecological changes that affected the Baltic Sea might have facilitated the adaption of human societies, further developing agriculture and the domestication of animals in northern central Europe.

Modelling the perennial energy crop market: the role of spatial diffusion

PubMed Central

Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Smith, Pete

2013-01-01

Biomass produced from energy crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial energy crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of energy crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial energy crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies. PMID:24026474

Modelling the perennial energy crop market: the role of spatial diffusion.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Smith, Pete

2013-11-06

Biomass produced from energy crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial energy crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of energy crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial energy crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies.

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

PubMed

Hulme, Mike

2003-09-15

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.

Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK).

PubMed

Kosanic, Aleksandra; Anderson, Karen; Harrison, Stephan; Turkington, Thea; Bennie, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species' geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies.

Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK)

PubMed Central

Kosanic, Aleksandra; Anderson, Karen; Harrison, Stephan; Turkington, Thea; Bennie, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species’ geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies. PMID:29401494

Temperature-dependent shifts in phenology contribute to the success of exotic species with climate change.

PubMed

Wolkovich, Elizabeth M; Davies, T Jonathan; Schaefer, Hanno; Cleland, Elsa E; Cook, Benjamin I; Travers, Steven E; Willis, Charles G; Davis, Charles C

2013-07-01

The study of how phenology may contribute to the assembly of plant communities has a long history in ecology. Climate change has brought renewed interest in this area, with many studies examining how phenology may contribute to the success of exotic species. In particular, there is increasing evidence that exotic species occupy unique phenological niches and track climate change more closely than native species. Here, we use long-term records of species’ first flowering dates from fi ve northern hemisphere temperate sites (Chinnor, UK and in the United States, Concord, Massachusetts; Fargo, North Dakota; Konza Prairie, Kansas; and Washington,D.C.) to examine whether invaders have distinct phenologies. Using a broad phylogenetic framework, we tested for differences between exotic and native species in mean annual flowering time, phenological changes in response to temperature and precipitation,and longer-term shifts in first flowering dates during recent pronounced climate change (“flowering time shifts”). Across North American sites, exotic species have shifted flowering with climate change while native species, on average, have not. In the three mesic systems, exotic species exhibited higher tracking of interannual variation in temperature,such that flowering advances more with warming, than native species. Across the two grassland systems, however, exotic species differed from native species primarily in responses to precipitation and soil moisture, not temperature. Our findings provide cross-site support for the role of phenology and climate change in explaining species’ invasions.Further, they support recent evidence that exotic species may be important drivers of extended growing seasons observed with climate change in North America.

Should nuclear energy form part of the UK's energy future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Peter

2003-03-01

Energy policies are under review everywhere, as the world tries to meet targets for reducing climate change despite continuing population growth. A major change in energy patterns is needed, with the critical period for transition predictably happening when young people currently at school are in their middle years of their lives. This article describes one way of bringing the debate surrounding energy demand and supply to life in physics classrooms.

Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change.

PubMed

Tompkins, Emma L; Few, Roger; Brown, Katrina

2008-09-01

Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.

Day one sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, John; Ibell, Timothy; Evernden, Mark; Darby, Antony

2015-05-01

Emissions reductions targets for the UK set out in the Climate Change Act for the period to 2050 will only be achieved with significant changes to the built environment, which is currently estimated to account for 50% of the UK's carbon emissions. The socio-technological nature of Civil Engineering means that this field is uniquely placed to lead the UK through such adaptations. This paper discusses the importance of interdisciplinary teaching to produce multi-faceted team approaches to sustainable design solutions. Methods for measuring success in education are often not fit for purpose, producing good students but poor engineers. Real-world failures to apply sustainable design present a serious, difficult to detect, and ultimately economically negative situation. Techniques to replace summative examinations are presented and discussed, with the aim of enhancing core technical skills alongside those required for sustainable design. Finally, the role of our future engineers in policy-making is discussed. In addition to carbon, the provision of water and food will heavily influence the work of civil engineers in the coming decades. Leadership from civil engineers with the technical knowledge and social awareness to tackle these issues will be required. This provides both opportunities and challenges for engineering education in the UK.

The future of flood insurance in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horn, Diane

2013-04-01

Approximately one in seven properties in the UK (3.6 million homes and businesses) are at risk of flooding. The Adaptation Sub-Committee of the UK Committee on Climate Change reported in 2012 that development on the floodplain grew at a faster rate than elsewhere in England over the past ten years, with one in five properties in the floodplain in areas of significant risk. They concluded that current levels of investment will not keep pace with the increasing risk, noting that without additional action, climate change could almost double the number of properties at significant risk by 2035. Flood insurance can contribute to risk reduction by using pricing or restrictions on availability of cover to discourage new development in flood risk areas, or to encourage the uptake of flood resilience measures. The UK insurance market currently offers flood cover as a standard feature of domestic and small business policies, with central government providing physical protection backed up by financial protection provided by the insurance industry. This approach is unusual in not passing all or part of the flood risk to government schemes. At present, flood insurance in the UK is conducted under a series of informal agreements established between the insurance industry and the Government known as the Statement of Principles. Members of the Association of British Insurers (ABI) currently agree to cover homes at risk of flooding in return for government commitment to manage flood risk. However, this arrangement is now under threat, as the insurance industry is increasingly reluctant to bear the financial burden of flooding alone. The current Statement of Principles ends on 30 June 2013 and will not be renewed. High-risk properties may be unable to obtain insurance after the Statement of Principles expires. Unusually, insurers are arguing against a free market solution, arguing that no country in the world provides universal flood cover without some form of government-led support. The UK insurance industry prefers a risk-pooling approach, while to date the government has not taken a position on the future of flood insurance after 2013.

Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

2009-04-01

Climate change is a core topic within Earth Science-related courses. This vast topic covers a wide array of different aspects that could be covered, from past climatic change across a vast range of scales to environmental (and social and economic) impacts of future climatic change and strategies for reducing anthropogenic climate change. The Earth Science disciplines play a crucial role in our understanding of past, present and future climate change and the Earth system in addition to understanding leading to development of strategies and technological solutions to achieve sustainability. However, an increased knowledge of the occurrence and causes of past (natural) climate changes can lead to a lessened concern and sense of urgency and responsibility amongst students in relation to anthropogenic causes of climatic change. Two concepts integral to the teaching of climate change are those of scientific uncertainty and complexity, yet an emphasis on these concepts can lead to scepticism about future predictions and a further loss of sense of urgency. The requirement to understand the nature of scientific uncertainty and think and move between different scales in particular relating an increased knowledge of longer timescale climatic change to recent (industrialised) climate change, are clearly areas of troublesome knowledge that affect students' sense of responsibility towards their role in achieving a sustainable society. Study of the attitudes of university students in a UK HE institution on a range of Earth Science-related programmes highlights a range of different attitudes in the student body towards the subject of climate change. Students express varied amounts of ‘climate change saturation' resulting from both media and curriculum coverage, a range of views relating to the significance of humans to the global climate and a range of opinions about the relevance of environmental citizenship to their degree programme. Climate change is therefore a challenging topic to cover within the Earth Science-related curricula due to wide-ranging, and sometimes polarised, existing attitudes of students and levels of existing partial and sometimes flawed knowledge in addition to the troublesome concepts that need to be grasped. These issues highlight the responsibility and challenge inherent in teaching the subject of climate change and the importance of consideration of integrating sustainability issues with the core science of climate change. The talk will include a discussion of strategies and resources for the effective teaching of climate change topics for a range of levels and discipline backgrounds.

Tailoring the visual communication of climate projections for local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK.

PubMed

Lorenz, Susanne; Dessai, Suraje; Forster, Piers M; Paavola, Jouni

2015-11-28

Visualizations are widely used in the communication of climate projections. However, their effectiveness has rarely been assessed among their target audience. Given recent calls to increase the usability of climate information through the tailoring of climate projections, it is imperative to assess the effectiveness of different visualizations. This paper explores the complexities of tailoring through an online survey conducted with 162 local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK. The survey examined respondents' assessed and perceived comprehension (PC) of visual representations of climate projections as well as preferences for using different visualizations in communicating and planning for a changing climate. Comprehension and use are tested using four different graph formats, which are split into two pairs. Within each pair the information content is the same but is visualized differently. We show that even within a fairly homogeneous user group, such as local adaptation practitioners, there are clear differences in respondents' comprehension of and preference for visualizations. We do not find a consistent association between assessed comprehension and PC or use within the two pairs of visualizations that we analysed. There is, however, a clear link between PC and use of graph format. This suggests that respondents use what they think they understand the best, rather than what they actually understand the best. These findings highlight that audience-specific targeted communication may be more complex and challenging than previously recognized. © 2015 The Authors.

Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China

PubMed Central

Erda, Lin; Wei, Xiong; Hui, Ju; Yinlong, Xu; Yue, Li; Liping, Bai; Liyong, Xie

2005-01-01

A regional climate change model (PRECIS) for China, developed by the UK's Hadley Centre, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average annual temperature increase in China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between 3 and 4 °C. Regional crop models were driven by PRECIS output to predict changes in yields of key Chinese food crops: rice, maize and wheat. Modelling suggests that climate change without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization could reduce the rice, maize and wheat yields by up to 37% in the next 20–80 years. Interactions of CO2 with limiting factors, especially water and nitrogen, are increasingly well understood and capable of strongly modulating observed growth responses in crops. More complete reporting of free-air carbon enrichment experiments than was possible in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report confirms that CO2 enrichment under field conditions consistently increases biomass and yields in the range of 5–15%, with CO2 concentration elevated to 550 ppm Levels of CO2 that are elevated to more than 450 ppm will probably cause some deleterious effects in grain quality. It seems likely that the extent of the CO2 fertilization effect will depend upon other factors such as optimum breeding, irrigation and nutrient applications. PMID:16433100

Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henner, Dagmar; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall

2016-04-01

Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy with higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by the unpredictable climate change currently going on. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers high impact, policy relevant ecosystem services at a Continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) with willow, poplar, eucalyptus and other broadleaf species and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), is currently being modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor, and ecosystem models will be used to examine the impacts of these crops on ecosystem services. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be utilised. Research will focus on optimisation of land use change feedbacks on above named ecosystem services, impact on food security, land management practices and impacts from climate change. We will present results for GHG emissions and soil organic carbon change after different land use change scenarios (e.g. arable to Miscanthus, forest to SRF), and with different climate warming scenarios. Further, we will show modelled yield maps for Miscanthus, Salix and Poplar in Europe and will present constraint/opportunity maps for Europe based on yield modelled and other factors e.g. total economic value, technical potential, current land use, trade off and synergies, and so on. All this will be complemented by the presentation of a matrix including the factors and ecosystem services influenced by land use change to bioenergy crop production under different climate change scenarios.

Gas-fired power in the UK: Bridging supply gaps and implications of domestic shale gas exploitation for UK climate change targets.

PubMed

Turk, Jeremy K; Reay, David S; Haszeldine, R Stuart

2018-03-01

There is a projected shortcoming in the fourth carbon budget of 7.5%. This shortfall may be increased if the UK pursues a domestic shale gas industry to offset projected decreases in traditional gas supply. Here we estimate that, if the project domestic gas supply gap for power generation were to be met by UK shale gas with low fugitive emissions (0.08%), an additional 20.4MtCO 2 e 1 would need to be accommodated during carbon budget periods 3-6. We find that a modest fugitive emissions rate (1%) for UK shale gas would increase global emissions compared to importing an equal quantity of Qatari liquefied natural gas. Additionally, we estimate that natural gas electricity generation would emit 420-466MtCO 2 e (460 central estimate) during the same time period within the traded EU emissions cap. We conclude that domestic shale gas production with even a modest 1% fugitive emissions rate would risk exceedance of UK carbon budgets. We also highlight that, under the current production-based greenhouse gas accounting system, the UK is incentivized to import natural gas rather than produce it domestically. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health sector leadership in mitigating climate change: experience from the UK and NSW.

PubMed

Pencheon, David; Rissel, Chris E; Hadfield, Glen; Madden, D Lynne

2009-01-01

The threat to human health from climate change means that all levels of government and private and public agencies will need to change their current practices to reduce carbon emissions. The health sector will also need to respond and change practice. The National Health Service in the United Kingdom is developing a systematic and strategic approach to reduce its carbon footprint, as described in the recently released NHS Carbon Reduction Strategy for England. The work is being led by the Service's new Sustainable Development Unit. While the Australian health care system has not yet embraced a shared vision for carbon reduction, there are examples emerging of how the sector is contributing to reduce greenhouse gas production. Examples from two NSW area health services to reduce energy use and promote active transport are presented. In both countries, these changes are supported by new legislation and policy.

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.

PubMed

Warren, R F; Wilby, R L; Brown, K; Watkiss, P; Betts, Richard A; Murphy, James M; Lowe, Jason A

2018-06-13

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Climate Change on Twitter: Topics, Communities and Conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 Report

PubMed Central

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. PMID:24718388

Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

PubMed

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

Greening the Curriculum? History Joins "The Usual Suspects" in Teaching Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawkey, Kate; James, Jon; Tidmarsh, Celia

2016-01-01

Inspired by the news that Bristol had become the UK's first Green Capital, Kate Hawkey, Jon James and Celia Tidmarsh set out to explore what a "Green Capital" School Curriculum might look like. Hawkey, James and Tidmarsh explain how they created a cross-curricular project to deliver in-school workshops focused on the teaching of climate…

Benefits and challenges for gene conservation: a view from the UK national tree seed project

Treesearch

Clare Trivedi; Simon. Kallow

2017-01-01

Trees and woodlands in the United Kingdom are currently subject to a range of threats including loss and fragmentation of native woodland and escalating pest and disease outbreaks. The largely unknown impacts of climate change pose a number of questions when considering afforestation and reforestation. There are frequent calls to develop resilient woodlands, robust...

Food Security in Australia in an Era of Neoliberalism, Productivism and Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawrence, Geoffrey; Richards, Carol; Lyons, Kristen

2013-01-01

For over 150 years Australia has exported bulk, undifferentiated, commodities such as wool, wheat, meat and sugar to the UK and more recently to Japan, Korea, and the Middle East. It is estimated that, each year, Australia's farming system feeds a domestic population of some 22 million people, while exporting enough food to feed another 40…

The UPSCALE project: a large simulation campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizielinski, Matthew; Roberts, Malcolm; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Schiemann, Reinhard; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane

2014-05-01

The development of a traceable hierarchy of HadGEM3 global climate models, based upon the Met Office Unified Model, at resolutions from 135 km to 25 km, now allows the impact of resolution on the mean state, variability and extremes of climate to be studied in a robust fashion. In 2011 we successfully obtained a single-year grant of 144 million core hours of supercomputing time from the PRACE organization to run ensembles of 27 year atmosphere-only (HadGEM3-A GA3.0) climate simulations at 25km resolution, as used in present global weather forecasting, on HERMIT at HLRS. Through 2012 the UPSCALE project (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) ran over 650 years of simulation at resolutions of 25 km (N512), 60 km (N216) and 135 km (N96) to look at the value of high resolution climate models in the study of both present climate and a potential future climate scenario based on RCP8.5. Over 400 TB of data was produced using HERMIT, with additional simulations run on HECToR (UK supercomputer) and MONSooN (Met Office NERC Supercomputing Node). The data generated was transferred to the JASMIN super-data cluster, hosted by STFC CEDA in the UK, where analysis facilities are allowing rapid scientific exploitation of the data set. Many groups across the UK and Europe are already taking advantage of these facilities and we welcome approaches from other interested scientists. This presentation will briefly cover the following points; Purpose and requirements of the UPSCALE project and facilities used. Technical implementation and hurdles (model porting and optimisation, automation, numerical failures, data transfer). Ensemble specification. Current analysis projects and access to the data set. A full description of UPSCALE and the data set generated has been submitted to Geoscientific Model development, with overview information available from http://proj.badc.rl.ac.uk/upscale .

Pliocene Warm Period Upwelling in the Southern Benguela Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrick, B. F.; McClymont, E.; Felder, S.; Leng, M. J.; Rosell Mele, A.; Rueda, G.

2014-12-01

The mid-Pliocene has been proposed as a possible analogue for understanding future climate change and testing climate models. Previous work has shown that during the Pliocene the major upwelling systems were relatively warm, and thus either inactive, contracted, or upwelling warmer waters than present. Here we examine evidence from a core site located on the margins of the modern Benguela upwelling system, to test whether the upwelling cells had migrated or contracted relative to present during the Pliocene. We applied several organic geochemistry proxies and foraminiferal analyses to reconstruct the Pliocene history of ODP site 1087 (31º28'S, 15º19'E, 1374m water depth), including the UK37' index and TEX86 index (for reconstructing sea surface temperatures), chlorins (for estimating primary productivity) and planktonic foraminifera assemblages (for inferring water mass changes). These proxies show that between 3.5 and 3.0 Ma the southern Benguela region was significantly cooler than the northern Benguela region, the latter where the main upwelling cells are found today. Coupled with higher primary production, a shift in planktonic foraminifera assemblage, and an offset between the UK37' index and TEX86 index, we infer that more extensive upwelling was present in the southern Benguela region during the Pliocene. We infer that the main Benguela upwelling cells had shifted southward relative to today, as a result of changes in the local wind field. We find evidence for pronounced cooling and a shift in the planktonic foraminifera assemblage during the M2 and KM2 glacial stages, showing a sensitivity of Benguela upwelling to these short-lived climate events.

Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

2018-02-01

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change and land-use change from a water demand perspective. We conclude that future water demands in the Upper Ganges region for winter months may not be met.

Factor structure of the Essen Climate Evaluation Schema measure of social climate in a UK medium-security setting.

PubMed

Milsom, Sophia A; Freestone, Mark; Duller, Rachel; Bouman, Marisa; Taylor, Celia

2014-04-01

Social climate has an influence on a number of treatment-related factors, including service users' behaviour, staff morale and treatment outcomes. Reliable assessment of social climate is, therefore, beneficial within forensic mental health settings. The Essen Climate Evaluation Schema (EssenCES) has been validated in forensic mental health services in the UK and Germany. Preliminary normative data have been produced for UK high-security national health services and German medium-security and high-security services. We aim to validate the use of the EssenCES scale (English version) and provide preliminary normative data in UK medium-security hospital settings. The EssenCES scale was completed in a medium-security mental health service as part of a service-wide audit. A total of 89 patients and 112 staff completed the EssenCES. The three-factor structure of the EssenCES and its internal construct validity were maintained within the sample. Scores from this medium-security hospital sample were significantly higher than those from earlier high-security hospital data, with three exceptions--'patient cohesion' according to the patients and 'therapeutic hold' according to staff and patients. Our data support the use of the EssenCES scale as a valid measure for assessing social climate within medium-security hospital settings. Significant differences between the means of high-security and medium-security service samples imply that degree of security is a relevant factor affecting the ward climate and that in monitoring quality of secure services, it is likely to be important to apply different scores to reflect standards. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of the educational climate for specialty trainees in dermatology.

PubMed

Goulding, J M R; Passi, V

2016-06-01

Dermatology specialty trainees (STs) in the United Kingdom (UK) are few in number and will join a thinly spread national consultant body. It is of paramount importance to deliver training programmes of the highest quality for these doctors, central to which is the establishment and maintenance of an educational climate conducive to learning. To conduct a pilot study to evaluate the educational climate for dermatology STs in one UK deanery (West Midlands). Secondary analysis of published data was performed, from the UK's General Medical Council (GMC) national training survey, and the Job Evaluation Survey Tool (JEST) administered by the West Midlands deanery. A modified online version of the Postgraduate Hospital Educational Environment Measure (PHEEM) was circulated among dermatology STs. The GMC's survey data show that UK dermatology STs rated their training highly in comparison with undifferentiated UK postgraduate trainees. West Midlands dermatology STs (n = 22) scored very similarly to UK dermatology STs. The JEST gave broadly encouraging results, with 21/22 (95%) happy to recommend their posts to colleagues. The modified PHEEM yielded a global mean score of 96.5/152, attracting the descriptor 'more positive than negative but room for improvement'. Despite inherent methodological limitations, the GMC, JEST and modified PHEEM surveys have revealed useful comparative triangulated data which allows the conclusion that West Midlands dermatology STs seem to be training in a favourable educational climate. This represents an important facet of the quality assurance process for medical education, and allows insight into areas which may require improvement. © 2015 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

PubMed

Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

2009-03-13

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

PubMed

Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

2017-12-05

This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

2018-01-01

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate adaptation measures. Overall, the presented dataset is a useful tool for assessing the risk associated with drought and more generally with hydro-meteorological extremes in the UK.

Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2015-04-01

Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations from a variety of CMIP5 model ensembles. Here, we present results for the UK 2013/14 winter floods as proof of concept and we show validation and testing results that demonstrate the robustness of our method. We also revisit the record temperatures over Europe in 2014 and present a detailed analysis of this attribution exercise as it is one of the events to demonstrate that we can make a sensible statement of how the odds for such a year to occur have changed while it still unfolds.

The entrepreneur: a new breed of health service leader?

PubMed

Exton, Rosemary

2008-01-01

This paper aims to critically examine the notion of entrepreneurship in the UK National Health Service (NHS), promoted by government ministers and senior civil servants as part of the rhetoric of the modernisation agenda. The paper explores literature on entrepreneurship in the private and public sector and qualitative case study evidence on the emergence (and non-emergence) of "entrepreneurs" who led the improving working lives (IWL) initiative in the UK National Health Service and discusses the issues involved. The rhetoric serves an essentially ideological function, obscuring the real difficulty of securing effective and sustainable change, in organisations with deeply engrained power structures and as complex and intransient as the NHS in particular and health services more generally. A "new breed of entrepreneurial leaders" may eventually appear but they face the challenge of surviving in the hierarchical NHS culture and in a climate of turbulent change created by the volatility of government policy. The paper shows that efforts to pursue entrepreneurship in the UK NHS have to overcome obstacles involving the interplay of power, gender and language.

Bioenergy Ecosystem Land-Use Modelling and Field Flux Trial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, Niall; Bottoms, Emily; Donnison, Iain; Dondini, Marta; Farrar, Kerrie; Finch, Jon; Harris, Zoe; Ineson, Phil; Keane, Ben; Massey, Alice; McCalmont, Jon; Morison, James; Perks, Mike; Pogson, Mark; Rowe, Rebecca; Smith, Pete; Sohi, Saran; Tallis, Mat; Taylor, Gail; Yamulki, Sirwan

2013-04-01

Climate change impacts resulting from fossil fuel combustion and concerns about the diversity of energy supply are driving interest to find low-carbon energy alternatives. As a result bioenergy is receiving widespread scientific, political and media attention for its potential role in both supplying energy and mitigating greenhouse (GHG) emissions. It is estimated that the bioenergy contribution to EU 2020 renewable energy targets could require up to 17-21 million hectares of additional land in Europe (Don et al., 2012). There are increasing concerns that some transitions into bioenergy may not be as sustainable as first thought when GHG emissions from the crop growth and management cycle are factored into any GHG life cycle assessment (LCA). Bioenergy is complex and encapsulates a wide range of crops, varying from food crop based biofuels to dedicated second generation perennial energy crops and forestry products. The decision on the choice of crop for energy production significantly influences the GHG mitigation potential. It is recognised that GHG savings or losses are in part a function of the original land-use that has undergone change and the management intensity for the energy crop. There is therefore an urgent need to better quantify both crop and site-specific effects associated with the production of conventional and dedicated energy crops on the GHG balance. Currently, there is scarcity of GHG balance data with respect to second generation crops meaning that process based models and LCAs of GHG balances are weakly underpinned. Therefore, robust, models based on real data are urgently required. In the UK we have recently embarked on a detailed program of work to address this challenge by combining a large number of field studies with state-of-the-art process models. Through six detailed experiments, we are calculating the annual GHG balances of land use transitions into energy crops across the UK. Further, we are quantifying the total soil carbon gain or loss after land use change at 100 fieldsites which encapsulate a range of UK climates and soil types. Our overall objective is to use our measured data to parameterise and validate the models that we will use to predict the implications of bioenergy crop deployment in the UK up to 2050. The resultant output will be a meta-model which will help facilitate decision making on the sustainable development of bioenergy in the UK, with potential deployment in other temperate climates around the world. Here we report on the outcome of the first of three years of work. This work is based on the Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial (ELUM) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). Don et al. (2012) Land-use change to bioenergy production in Europe: implications for the greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon. GCB Bioenergy 4, 372-379.

Objective Assessment of Groundwater Resources for the Isle of Wight, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, M.; Butler, A. P.; McIntyre, N.

2012-12-01

Water resources are of crucial importance to the UK, and are essential to agriculture and industry as well as for domestic usage. A combination of factors - population growth, climate change and increasing regulatory restriction - will alter water availability over the next fifty years, potentially leading to shortages. Groundwater systems, representing 60% of available water in the southern UK, are typically conceptualised through geological interpretation, resulting in skilful and widely used systems models. Where these models are not successful, alternative approaches to groundwater resource assessments are required. A process for objectively modelling groundwater systems from borehole level observation data is presented, along with a methodology for incorporating climate change and population growth forecasts into an assessment of future water availability. The objective assessment described is a three stage process. Firstly, the observation data can be associated into groups, in order to best represent the water table response and thus identify units with consistent storage coefficient and transport process, analogous to varying aquifer media. Here this is achieved through the use of cluster analysis, applying various distance metrics to observation variances and incorporating spatial displacement. Secondly, the resulting groups are used to generate interpolated surfaces of mean water table level. A series of interpolative methods, including stochastic approaches, are applied and cross-validated to generate the most credible groundwater surface. Thirdly, the presence and influence of spatial and temporal anomalies such as groundwater abstraction points are identified through examination of observations furthest from the final interpolated groundwater surface. This groundwater systems model can then be incorporated into a groundwater/surface model relating rainfall to water table level and river flow, which in turn is used in conjunction with state-of-the-art climate projections and population change forecasts to generate projections of change for future scenarios. A case study illustrating the use of this methodology is presented. The Isle of Wight, a small island off the south coast of England with a population of 140,000, is exceptionally water stressed by UK standards and currently dependent on mainland transfers. These transfers are under review due to environmental pressure on the neighbouring county of Hampshire. Alongside this, a high population growth rate and the southerly location make the Isle of Wight the most likely part of the UK to be affected by reduced water availability. Lower Greensands and Chalk aquifer systems provide most of the island's non-imported water, yet these remain poorly understood. The principle reason for this is the exceptionally complex geology, a result of the island's location at the convergence of two asymmetric anticlinal structures and, in the case of the Lower Greensand group, multiple layers of alternating aquiferous and non-aquiferous material. A statistical assessment of borehole data may provide evidence for groundwater processes where direct lithological analysis is not appropriate. Through development of a credible groundwater systems model and sensible projections of future water availability, critical information can be provided to influence future water management policy.

Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

2012-04-01

At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based `natural' flood management in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.; Murgatroyd, Anna; Acreman, Mike; Bates, Paul; Beven, Keith; Heathwaite, Louise; Holden, Joseph; Holman, Ian P.; Lane, Stuart N.; O'Connell, Enda; Penning-Rowsell, Edmund; Reynard, Nick; Sear, David; Thorne, Colin; Wilby, Rob

2017-03-01

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in the UK and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based `natural' flood management in the UK. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material.

A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based 'natural' flood management in the UK.

PubMed

Dadson, Simon J; Hall, Jim W; Murgatroyd, Anna; Acreman, Mike; Bates, Paul; Beven, Keith; Heathwaite, Louise; Holden, Joseph; Holman, Ian P; Lane, Stuart N; O'Connell, Enda; Penning-Rowsell, Edmund; Reynard, Nick; Sear, David; Thorne, Colin; Wilby, Rob

2017-03-01

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in the UK and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based 'natural' flood management in the UK. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material.

The Battle of the Narrative

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-06

battleground is in the mind – that of the indigenous population and of regional and world opinion.9 With the advent of globalised communications, the...however, that these lessons have applicability to international issues such as globalisation , international terrorism and climate change. These...strategic communication ‘voice’, or lack thereof. As the Defence Budget of £38 billion in 2009-10 is the fourth largest U.K. public sector expenditure

Safeguarding Cultural Heritage against Climate Change and Natural Hazards through Stakeholder Involvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, Rosmarie; Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Hollosi, Brigitta; Anders, Ivonne; Höfler, Angelika; Boi, Silvia; Resta, Vanni; Patrikakis, Charalampos

2017-04-01

Europe's cultural heritage is among the richest in the world, and draws millions of visitors to archeological sites, museums, monuments, castles, and other sites each year. The protection and conservation of European heritage is of utmost importance for our society, not only in order to preserve the European cultural identity, but also because cultural heritage is a wealth creator bringing tourism-related business opportunities on which many communities depend. However, Europe's heritage assets are extremely exposed to climate change and natural hazards, which threatens their integrity and may compromise their value. The goal of the STORM (Safeguarding Cultural Heritage through Technical and Organisational Management) project is to provide critical decision-making tools to European cultural heritage stakeholders affected by climate change and natural hazards. Here, the STORM project will be presented with a focus on climate change and natural hazard risk communication to the involved stakeholders. However, climate change communication is not a one-way process, and discussions with stakeholders are necessary to identify their specific needs. Hence, the STORM concept is tested through pilot site studies in five different countries: the Diocletian Baths in Rome, Italy; the Mellor Heritage site, Manchester, UK; the Roman Ruins of Tróia, Portugal; the Historical Centre of Rethymno on Crete, Greece and Ephesus, Izmir, Turkey. Furthermore, the past and future climatic conditions at the project's pilot sites are analysed in terms of mean state and extreme events (for example temperature and precipitation changes evident from observations and climate scenarios), which will be discussed with regard to their relevance for the local cultural heritage protection based on discussions with the stakeholders.

Continent-wide risk assessment for the establishment of nonindigenous species in Antarctica

PubMed Central

Chown, Steven L.; Huiskes, Ad H. L.; Gremmen, Niek J. M.; Lee, Jennifer E.; Terauds, Aleks; Crosbie, Kim; Frenot, Yves; Hughes, Kevin A.; Imura, Satoshi; Kiefer, Kate; Lebouvier, Marc; Raymond, Ben; Tsujimoto, Megumu; Ware, Chris; Van de Vijver, Bart; Bergstrom, Dana Michelle

2012-01-01

Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year's first season (2007–2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica's climate. For an evaluation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakićenović N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors carrying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tourist numbers (∼33,054) are higher than those of scientists (∼7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these findings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent's climate changes. PMID:22393003

Climatic effects on breeding grounds are more important drivers of breeding phenology in migrant birds than carry-over effects from wintering grounds.

PubMed

Ockendon, Nancy; Leech, Dave; Pearce-Higgins, James W

2013-01-01

Long-distance migrants may be particularly vulnerable to climate change on both wintering and breeding grounds. However, the relative importance of climatic variables at different stages of the annual cycle is poorly understood, even in well-studied Palaearctic migrant species. Using a national dataset spanning 46 years, we investigate the impact of wintering ground precipitation and breeding ground temperature on breeding phenology and clutch size of 19 UK migrants. Although both spring temperature and arid zone precipitation were significantly correlated with laying date, the former accounted for 3.5 times more inter-annual variation. Neither climate variable strongly affected clutch size. Thus, although carry-over effects had some impact, they were weaker drivers of reproductive traits than conditions on the breeding grounds.

Influence of the Scandinavian climate pattern on the UK asthma mortality: a time series and geospatial study.

PubMed

Majeed, Haris; Moore, G W K

2018-04-13

It is well known that climate variability and trends have an impact on human morbidity and mortality, especially during the winter. However, there are only a handful of studies that have undertaken quantitative investigations into this impact. We evaluate the association between the UK winter asthma mortality data to a well-established feature of the climate system, the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern. Time series analysis of monthly asthma mortality through the period of January 2001 to December 2015 was conducted, where the data were acquired from the UK's Office for National Statistics. The correlations between indices of important modes of climate variability impacting the UK such as the North Atlantic Oscillation as well as the SCA and the asthma mortality time series were computed. A grid point correlation analysis was also conducted with the asthma data with sea level pressure, surface wind and temperature data acquired from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We find that sea level pressure and temperature fluctuations associated with the SCA explain ~20% (>95% CL) of variance in the UK asthma mortality through a period of 2001-2015. Furthermore, the highest winter peak in asthma mortality occurred in the year 2015, during which there were strong northwesterly winds over the UK that were the result of a sea level pressure pattern similar to that associated with the SCA. Our study emphasises the importance of incorporating large-scale geospatial analyses into future research of understanding diseases and its environmental impact on human health. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Woodland carbon code: building an evidence base for the "4 per mil" initiative in land converted to forestry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannam, Jacqueline; Vanguelova, Elena; West, Vicky

2017-04-01

The Woodland Carbon Code is a voluntary standard for woodland creation projects in the UK. Carbon sequestration resulting from certified projects will contribute directly to the UK's national targets for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Whilst this is concerned primarily with above ground capture there is little empirical evidence of the longer term carbon sequestration potential of soils under this land use change in the UK. We present preliminary results from a resurvey of 20 sites originally sampled as part of the soil survey of England and Wales. It includes soil carbon stocks assessed within the soil profile (up to 1m depth) where sites have been converted to forestry in the last 40 years. The small number of sites (n=20) and high variability in soil type, forest type and original land use prevented detailed analysis between these different factors, but overall there was an increase in carbon concentration in the whole profile, driven primarily by an increase the surface organic layers. For all sites combined there was no significant difference in the C stocks between the two survey periods. The increase in carbon stock in the surface organic horizons tended to be offset by a decrease in the mineral subsoils (specifically in Brown Earth soils) primarily as a result of bulk density changes. There are presently insufficient measured data from a range of UK climate, land-use and soil type conditions to quantify with confidence soil C changes during afforestation. This is partly because of the difficulties of detecting relatively slow changes in spatially heterogeneous soils and also obtaining good examples of sites that have undergone documented land use change. Reviewing results from all ongoing afforestation projects in the UK will provide better quantification of the C sequestration potential of forest soils to be accounted for in the Woodland Carbon Code's overall GHG mitigation potential.

Identifying and Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Heritage Assets from Site to Catchment-Scale : Developing Landscape Analysis Toolkits within Geoarchaeological Frameworks.An example from the Trent catchment, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, Andy; Knight, David

2016-04-01

In the UK, the devastating floods of the last few years, both summer and winter, have bought sharply into focus the changing nature of weather patterns, as well as the challenges of future flood risk management under such extreme scenarios. Inevitably, when such disasters happen, focus is often placed on individual localities or groups of built assets, as well as the development of solutions that consider contemporary and modelled future geomorphological processes. Whilst the impact of these major floods on heritage assets has gained some prominence in the media, often due to failure of historic bridges, the majority of the damage to the Historic Record goes unrecognised, since its impact is on (invisible) subsurface remains. As well as being directly affected by these flood events, identifying the character of heritage assets within river catchments has the potential to inform landscape managers of past climatic and environmental changes and human response to key geomorphic processes and events. Particularly in industrial landscapes, it also has the potential to identify the legacy of past pollution that can have significant impacts on ecosystems and future geomorphic thresholds. Clearly, whilst the historic environment record has the potential to greatly inform environmental managers, it is important that those responsible for providing such information (i.e. the archaeological community), take a holistic approach to examining landscapes within clearly identified research frameworks that provide equal weight to individual sites and more expansive terrain units. This paper provides an example of such a framework developed through a number of Historic England funded initiatives in the Trent catchment, UK, which have helped to develop toolkits to characterise geoarchaeological resources, consider their potential for informing environmental managers about past landscape change and therefore offer the potential to shape policy and societal response to future events.

Improved representation of plant functional types and physiology in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES v4.2) using plant trait information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, Anna B.; Cox, Peter M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Wiltshire, Andy J.; Jones, Chris D.; Sitch, Stephen; Mercado, Lina M.; Groenendijk, Margriet; Robertson, Eddy; Kattge, Jens; Bönisch, Gerhard; Atkin, Owen K.; Bahn, Michael; Cornelissen, Johannes; Niinemets, Ülo; Onipchenko, Vladimir; Peñuelas, Josep; Poorter, Lourens; Reich, Peter B.; Soudzilovskaia, Nadjeda A.; van Bodegom, Peter

2016-07-01

Dynamic global vegetation models are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. They are essential for planning ecosystem management, understanding carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, and evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on global ecosystems. JULES (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) represents terrestrial processes in the UK Hadley Centre family of models and in the first generation UK Earth System Model. Previously, JULES represented five plant functional types (PFTs): broadleaf trees, needle-leaf trees, C3 and C4 grasses, and shrubs. This study addresses three developments in JULES. First, trees and shrubs were split into deciduous and evergreen PFTs to better represent the range of leaf life spans and metabolic capacities that exists in nature. Second, we distinguished between temperate and tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. These first two changes result in a new set of nine PFTs: tropical and temperate broadleaf evergreen trees, broadleaf deciduous trees, needle-leaf evergreen and deciduous trees, C3 and C4 grasses, and evergreen and deciduous shrubs. Third, using data from the TRY database, we updated the relationship between leaf nitrogen and the maximum rate of carboxylation of Rubisco (Vcmax), and updated the leaf turnover and growth rates to include a trade-off between leaf life span and leaf mass per unit area.Overall, the simulation of gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP, respectively) is improved with the nine PFTs when compared to FLUXNET sites, a global GPP data set based on FLUXNET, and MODIS NPP. Compared to the standard five PFTs, the new nine PFTs simulate a higher GPP and NPP, with the exception of C3 grasses in cold environments and C4 grasses that were previously over-productive. On a biome scale, GPP is improved for all eight biomes evaluated and NPP is improved for most biomes - the exceptions being the tropical forests, savannahs, and extratropical mixed forests where simulated NPP is too high. With the new PFTs, the global present-day GPP and NPP are 128 and 62 Pg C year-1, respectively. We conclude that the inclusion of trait-based data and the evergreen/deciduous distinction has substantially improved productivity fluxes in JULES, in particular the representation of GPP. These developments increase the realism of JULES, enabling higher confidence in simulations of vegetation dynamics and carbon storage.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Knowledge Gaps, Planned Observations to Address Them, and Implications for Global Climate Change Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Redemann, Jens; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.; Haywood, J.; Luna, B.; Abel, S.

2015-01-01

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded deployment of the DOE (Department of Energy) ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) to Ascension Island, nominally for April 1 2016 - March 31 2017, and 4) ONFIRE (Observations of Fire's Impact on the southeast Atlantic Region), a proposed deployment of the NCAR C-130 aircraft to Sao Tome Island in 2017.

Assessment of air quality and climate co-benefits of decarbonisation of the UK energy system using remote sensing and model simulations - the case for prioritizing end uses in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobral Mourao, Zenaida; Konadu, Daniel Dennis; Damoah, Richard; Li, Pei-hao

2017-04-01

The UK has a binding obligation to reduce GHG emission by 80% (based on 1990 levels) by 2050. Meeting this target requires extensive decarbonisation of the UK energy system. Different pathways that achieve this target at the lowest system costs are being explored at different levels of policy and decisions on future energy infrastructure. Whilst benefits of decarbonisation are mainly focused on the impacts on climate change, there are other potential environmental and health impacts such as air-quality. In particular, a decrease in fossil fuel use by directly substituting current systems with low-carbon technologies could lead to significant reductions in the concentrations of SO2, NOX, CO and other atmospheric pollutants. So far, the proposed decarbonisation pathways tend to target the electricity sector first, followed by a transition in transport and heating technologies and use. However, the spatial dimension of where short term changes in the energy sector occur in relation to high density population areas is not taken into account when defining the energy transition strategies. This may lead to limited short-term improvements in air quality within urban areas, where use of fossil fuels for heating and transport is the main contribution to overall atmospheric pollutant levels. It is therefore imperative to explore decarbonisation strategies that prioritise transition in sectors of the energy system that produce immediate improvements in air quality in key regions of the UK. This study aims to use a combination of Remote Sensing observations and atmospheric chemistry/transport modelling approaches to estimate and map the impact on NOx of the traditional approach of decarbonising electricity first compared to a slower transition in the electricity sector, but faster change in the transport sector. This is done by generating a set of alternative energy system pathways with a higher share of zero emissions vehicles in 2030 than the energy system optimization model would choose if the only goal was the 80% GHG emissions reduction. Our overarching goal is to provide an additional standard to compare future energy system pathways beyond the traditional metrics of cost and GHG emissions reductions.

Black carbon aerosol mixing state, organic aerosols and aerosol optical properties over the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMeeking, G. R.; Morgan, W. T.; Flynn, M.; Highwood, E. J.; Turnbull, K.; Haywood, J.; Coe, H.

2011-05-01

Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb sunlight thereby leading to a positive radiative forcing and a warming of climate and can also impact human health through their impact on the respiratory system. The state of mixing of BC with other aerosol species, particularly the degree of internal/external mixing, has been highlighted as a major uncertainty in assessing its radiative forcing and hence its climate impact, but few in situ observations of mixing state exist. We present airborne single particle soot photometer (SP2) measurements of refractory BC (rBC) mass concentrations and mixing state coupled with aerosol composition and optical properties measured in urban plumes and regional pollution over the UK. All data were obtained using instrumentation flown on the UK's BAe-146-301 large Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA) operated by the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM). We measured sub-micron aerosol composition using an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) and used positive matrix factorization to separate hydrocarbon-like (HOA) and oxygenated organic aerosols (OOA). We found a higher number fraction of thickly coated rBC particles in air masses with large OOA relative to HOA, higher ozone-to-nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratios and large concentrations of total sub-micron aerosol mass relative to rBC mass concentrations. The more ozone- and OOA-rich air masses were associated with transport from continental Europe, while plumes from UK cities had higher HOA and NOx and fewer thickly coated rBC particles. We did not observe any significant change in the rBC mass absorption efficiency calculated from rBC mass and light absorption coefficients measured by a particle soot absorption photometer despite observing significant changes in aerosol composition and rBC mixing state. The contributions of light scattering and absorption to total extinction (quantified by the single scattering albedo; SSA) did change for different air masses, with lower SSA observed in urban plumes compared to regional aerosol (0.85 versus 0.9-0.95). We attribute these differences to the presence of relatively rapidly formed secondary aerosol, primarily OOA and ammonium nitrate, which must be taken into account in radiative forcing calculations.

Assessment of the trade-offs and synergies between low-carbon power sector transition and land and water resources of the United Kingdom using the "ForeseerTM" approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konadu, D. D.; Sobral Mourao, Z.

2016-12-01

Transitioning to a low-carbon power system has been identified as one of the main strategies for achieving GHG emissions reduction targets stipulated in the UK Climate Change Act (2008). However, projected mix of technologies aimed at achieving the targeted level of decarbonisation have implications for sustainable level natural resource exploitation at different spatial and temporal scales. Critical among these are the impact on land use (food production) and water resources, which are usually not adequately analysed and accounted for in developing these long-term energy system transition strategies and scenarios. Given the importance of the UK power sector to meeting economy-wide emissions targets, the overall environmental consequence of the prescribed scenarios could significantly affect meeting long-term legislated GHG emission reduction targets. It is therefore imperative that synergies and trade-offs between the power systems and these resources are comprehensively analysed. The current study employs an integrated energy and resource use accounting methodology, called ForeseerTM, to assess the land and water requirement for the deployment of the power sector technologies of the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) Carbon Budget scenarios. This is analysed under different scenarios of energy crop yield and electricity infrastructure location. The outputs are then compared with sustainable limits of resource exploitation to establish the environmental tractability of the scenarios. The results show that even if stringent environmental and land use restrictions are applied, all the projected bioenergy and ground-mounted solar PV can be deployed within the UK with no significant impacts on land use and food production. However, inland water resources would be significantly affected if high Carbon Capture and Storage deployment, and without new nuclear capacity. Overall, the output highlights that contrary to the notion of the inevitability of CCS deployment in delivering emissions reduction targets, a future without CCS poses the least overall environmental impacts.

Metrics for Success in the Preservation of Scientific Data at the STFC Centre for Environmental Data Archival (CEDA).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, B.; Pepler, S.

2009-04-01

CEDA (http://www.ceda.ac.uk) hosts three main data centres: the British Atmospheric Data Centre (http://badc.nerc.ac.uk), the NERC Earth Observation Data Centre (http://neodc.nerc.ac.uk), and the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Dedicated Data Centre (http://ipcc-data.org) as well as components of many national and international projects. CEDA recieves both core funding (from the UK Natural Environment Research Council) and per project funding (from a variety of sources). However, all funders require metrics assessing success. In the case of preservation it is hard to measure success - usage alone is not enough, since next year someone may use currently unused data if it is well preserved, and so it is the act of preservation which in this case marks success. Even where data is accessed, it is not necessarily used. Hence at CEDA we have three key focii in our approach to metrics: measuring direct website access, benchmarking procedures against best practice, and hopefully soon, recording data citation. In this presentation we cover how we are addressing each of these three areas.

Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Jenkins, K; Surminski, S; Hall, J; Crick, F

2017-10-01

Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changing Sea Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugh, David

2004-04-01

Flooding of coastal communities is one of the major causes of environmental disasters world-wide. This textbook explains how sea levels are affected by astronomical tides, weather effects, ocean circulation and climate trends. Based on courses taught by the author in the U.K. and the U.S., it is aimed at undergraduate students at all levels, with non-basic mathematics being confined to Appendices and a website http://publishing.cambridge.org/resources/0521532183/.

Past and future weather-induced risk in crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, J. W.; Glotter, M.; Russo, T. A.; Sahoo, S.; Foster, I.; Benton, T.; Mueller, C.

2016-12-01

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather and may harm more people than any other consequence of climate change. Improvements in farming practices have dramatically increased crop productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation. We report here on a number of recent studies evaluating extreme event risk and impacts under historical and near future conditions, including studies conducted as part of the Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience.

Incorporation of UK Met Office's radiation scheme into CPTEC's global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chagas, Júlio C. S.; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.

2009-03-01

Current parameterization of radiation in the CPTEC's (Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil) operational AGCM has its origins in the work of Harshvardhan et al. (1987) and uses the formulation of Ramaswamy and Freidenreich (1992) for the short-wave absorption by water vapor. The UK Met Office's radiation code (Edwards and Slingo, 1996) was incorporated into CPTEC's global model, initially for short-wave only, and some impacts of that were shown by Chagas and Barbosa (2006). Current paper presents some impacts of the complete incorporation (both short-wave and long-wave) of UK Met Office's scheme. Selected results from off-line comparisons with line-by-line benchmark calculations are shown. Impacts on the AGCM's climate are assessed by comparing output of climate runs of current and modified AGCM with products from GEWEX/SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project.

Hydrological alteration of the Upper Nakdong river under AR5 climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Park, Y.; Cha, W. Y.; Okjeong, L.; Choi, J.; Lee, J.

2016-12-01

One of the tasks faced to water engineers is how to consider the climate change impact in our water resources management. Especially in South Korea, where almost all drinking water is taken from major rivers, the public attention is focused on their eco-hydrologic status. In this study, the effect of climate change on eco-hydrologic regime in the Upper Nakdong river which is one of major rivers in South Korea is investigated using SWAT. The simulation results are measured using the indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) established by U.S. Nature Conservancy. Future climate information is obtained by scaling historical series, provided by Korean Meteorological Administration RCM (KMA RCM) and four RCP scenarios. KMA RCM has 12.5-km spatial resolution in Korean Peninsula and is produced by UK Hedley Centre regional climate model HadGEM3-RA. The RCM bias is corrected by the Kernel density distribution mapping (KDDM) method. The KDDM estimates the cumulative probability density function (CDF) of each dataset using kernel density estimation, and is implemented by quantile-mapping the CDF of a present climate variable obtained from the RCM onto that of the corresponding observed climate variable. Although the simulation results from different RCP scenarios show diverse hydrologic responses in our watershed, the mainstream of future simulation results indicate that there will be more river flow in southeast Korea. The predicted impacts of hydrological alteration caused by climate change on the aquatic ecosystem in the Upper Nakdong river will be presented. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Dataset of the livability performance of the city of Birmingham, UK, as measured by its citizen wellbeing, resource security, resource efficiency and carbon emissions.

PubMed

Leach, Joanne M; Lee, Susan E; Boyko, Christopher T; Coulton, Claire J; Cooper, Rachel; Smith, Nicholas; Joffe, Hélène; Büchs, Milena; Hale, James D; Sadler, Jonathan P; Braithwaite, Peter A; Blunden, Luke S; De Laurentiis, Valeria; Hunt, Dexter V L; Bahaj, AbuBakr S; Barnes, Katie; Bouch, Christopher J; Bourikas, Leonidas; Cavada, Marianna; Chilvers, Andrew; Clune, Stephen J; Collins, Brian; Cosgrave, Ellie; Dunn, Nick; Falkingham, Jane; James, Patrick; Kwami, Corina; Locret-Collet, Martin; Medda, Francesca; Ortegon, Adriana; Pollastri, Serena; Popan, Cosmin; Psarikidou, Katerina; Tyler, Nick; Urry, John; Wu, Yue; Zeeb, Victoria; Rogers, Chris D F

2017-12-01

This data article presents the UK City LIFE 1 data set for the city of Birmingham, UK. UK City LIFE 1 is a new, comprehensive and holistic method for measuring the livable sustainability performance of UK cities. The Birmingham data set comprises 346 indicators structured simultaneously (1) within a four-tier, outcome-based framework in order to aid in their interpretation (e.g., promote healthy living and healthy long lives, minimize energy use, uncouple economic vitality from CO2 emissions) and (2) thematically in order to complement government and disciplinary siloes (e.g., health, energy, economy, climate change). Birmingham data for the indicators are presented within an Excel spreadsheet with their type, units, geographic area, year, source, link to secondary data files, data collection method, data availability and any relevant calculations and notes. This paper provides a detailed description of UK city LIFE 1 in order to enable comparable data sets to be produced for other UK cities. The Birmingham data set is made publically available at http://epapers.bham.ac.uk/3040/ to facilitate this and to enable further analyses. The UK City LIFE 1 Birmingham data set has been used to understand what is known and what is not known about the livable sustainability performance of the city and to inform how Birmingham City Council can take action now to improve its understanding and its performance into the future (see "Improving city-scale measures of livable sustainability: A study of urban measurement and assessment through application to the city of Birmingham, UK" Leach et al. [2]).

Stimulating investment in energy materials and technologies to combat climate change: an overview of learning curve analysis and niche market support.

PubMed

Foxon, Timothy J

2010-07-28

This paper addresses the probable levels of investment needed in new technologies for energy conversion and storage that are essential to address climate change, drawing on past evidence on the rate of cost improvements in energy technologies. A range of energy materials and technologies with lower carbon emissions over their life cycle are being developed, including fuel cells (FCs), hydrogen storage, batteries, supercapacitors, solar energy and nuclear power, and it is probable that most, if not all, of these technologies will be needed to mitigate climate change. High rates of innovation and deployment will be needed to meet targets such as the UK's goal of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, which will require significant levels of investment. Learning curves observed for reductions in unit costs of energy technologies, such as photovoltaics and FCs, can provide evidence on the probable future levels of investment needed. The paper concludes by making recommendations for policy measures to promote such investment from both the public and private sectors.

Migration in Vulnerable Deltas: A Research Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutton, C.; Nicholls, R. J.; Allan, A.

2015-12-01

C. Hutton1, & R. J. Nicholls1, , 1 University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, Hampshire, United Kingdom, SO17 1BJ. cwh@geodata. soton.ac.ukAbstractGlobally, deltas contain 500 million people and with rising sea levels often linked to large number of forced migrants are expected in the coming century. However, migration is already a major process in deltas, such as the growth of major cities such as Dhaka and Kolkata. Climate and environmental change interacts with a range of catchment and delta level drivers, which encompass a nexus of sea-level rise, storms, freshwater and sediment supply from the catchment, land degradation, subsidence, agricultural loss and socio-economic stresses. DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation/CARRIA) is investigating migration in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Mahanadi and Volta Deltas, including the influence of climate change. The research will explore migration from a range of perspectives including governance and stakeholder analysis, demographic analysis, household surveys of sending and receiving areas, macro-economic analysis, and hazards and hotspot analysis both historically and into the future. Migration under climate change will depend on other adaptation in the deltas and this will be examined. Collectively, integrated analysis will be developed to examine migration, other adaptation and development pathways with a particular focus on the implications for the poorest. This will require the development of input scenarios, including expert-derived exogenous scenarios (e.g., climate change) and endogenous scenarios of the delta developed in a participatory manner. This applied research will facilitate decision support methods for the development of deltas under climate change, with a focus on migration and other adaptation strategies.

Ocean waves from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and the effect of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Meza-Padilla, R.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Cerezo-Mota, R.; López-González, J.

2016-12-01

To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Sea level change in Great Britain between 1859 and the present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth, Philip L.

2018-04-01

Short records of sea level measurements by the Ordnance Survey at 31 locations in 1859-1860, together with recent Mean Sea Level (MSL) information from the UK tide gauge network, have been used to estimate the average rates of sea level change around the coast of Great Britain since the mid-19th century. Rates are found to be approximately 1 mm yr-1 in excess of those expected for the present day based on geological information, providing evidence for a climate-change related component of the increase in UK sea level. In turn, the rates of change of MSL for the past 60 yr are estimated to be ˜1 mm yr-1 in excess of the long-term rates since 1859, suggesting an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise between the 19th and 20th/21st centuries. Although the historical records are very short (approximately a fortnight), this exercise in `data archaeology' shows how valuable to research even the shortest records can be, as long as the measurements were made by competent people and the datums of the measurements were fully documented.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset.

The UK Earth System Model project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yongming

2016-04-01

In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

Estimating Sources and Fluxes of Dissolved and Particulate Organic Matter in UK Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Jessica; Tipping, Edward; Quinton, John; Old, Gareth

2014-05-01

Over the past two centuries, pools and fluxes of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in UK ecosystems have been altered by intensification of agriculture, land use change and atmospheric pollution leading to acidification and eutrophication of surface waters. In addition to this, climate change is now also predicted to substantially impact these systems. The CEH Long Term Large Scale (LTLS) project therefore aims to simulate the pools and fluxes of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus and their stoichiometry during the cycling process. Through the N14C model, simulations of the release of C, N and P through drainage water and erosion processes will be predicted using historical climate data, which will be tested using contemporary data. For present data, water from four UK catchments (Ribble, Wiltshire Avon, Conwy, Dee) were collected at the tidal limit of each river, which included a combination of high and low flow samples predicted using 5 day forecasts and local weather station data. These samples were filtered, centrifuged and sent to the NERC radiocarbon facility for analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) to obtain both PO14C and DO14C data. Radiocarbon enables a unique and dynamic way of estimating long term turnover rates of organic matter, and has proven to be an invaluable tool for measuring upland terrestrial and aquatic systems. It has however, been scarcely used in larger, lowland river systems. Since the riverine organic matter captured is likely to have originated from terrestrial and riparian sources, the radiocarbon data will be a rigorous test of the model's ability to simulate the coupling of erosion and leaching processes, and stoichiometric relationships between C:N:P.

Potential Threats Posed by New or Emerging Marine Biotoxins in UK Waters and Examination of Detection Methodology Used in Their Control: Brevetoxins

PubMed Central

Turner, Andrew D.; Higgins, Cowan; Davidson, Keith; Veszelovszki, Andrea; Payne, Daniel; Hungerford, James; Higman, Wendy

2015-01-01

Regular occurrence of brevetoxin-producing toxic phytoplankton in commercial shellfishery areas poses a significant risk to shellfish consumer health. Brevetoxins and their causative toxic phytoplankton are more limited in their global distribution than most marine toxins impacting commercial shellfisheries. On the other hand, trends in climate change could conceivably lead to increased risk posed by these toxins in UK waters. A request was made by UK food safety authorities to examine these toxins more closely to aid possible management strategies, should they pose a threat in the future. At the time of writing, brevetoxins have been detected in the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast US coast and in New Zealand waters, where regulatory levels for brevetoxins in shellfish have existed for some time. This paper reviews evidence concerning the prevalence of brevetoxins and brevetoxin-producing phytoplankton in the UK, together with testing methodologies. Chemical, biological and biomolecular methods are reviewed, including recommendations for further work to enable effective testing. Although the focus here is on the UK, from a strategic standpoint many of the topics discussed will also be of interest in other parts of the world since new and emerging marine biotoxins are of global concern. PMID:25775421

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The paper will conclude by discussing the user needs of satellite rainfall retrievals from a climate change modelling prospective.

Wetland methane modelling over the Scandinavian Arctic: Performance of current land-surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayman, Garry; Quiquet, Aurélien; Gedney, Nicola; Clark, Douglas; Friend, Andrew; George, Charles; Prigent, Catherine

2014-05-01

Wetlands are generally accepted as being the largest, but least well quantified, single natural source of CH4, with global emission estimates ranging from 100-231 Tg yr-1 [1] and for which the Boreal and Arctic regions make a significant contribution [2, 3]. The recent review by Melton et al. [4] has provided a summary of the current state of knowledge on the modelling of wetlands and the outcome of the WETCHIMP model intercomparison exercise. Melton et al. found a large variation in the wetland areas and associated methane emissions from the participating models and varying responses to climate change. In this paper, we report results from offline runs of two land surface models over Scandinavia (JULES, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator [5, 6] and HYBRID8 [7]), using the same driving meteorological dataset (CRU-NCEP) for the period from January 1980 to December 2010. Although the two land surface models are very different, both models have used a TOPMODEL approach to derive the wetland area and have similar parameterisations of the methane wetland emissions. We find that both models give broadly similar results. They underestimate the wetland areas over Northern Scandinavia, compared to remote sensing and map-based datasets of wetlands [8]. This leads to lower predicted methane emissions compared to those observed on the ground and from aircraft [9]. We will present these findings and identify possible reasons for the underprediction. We will show the sensitivity to using the observed wetland areas to improve the methane emission estimates. References [1] Denman, K., et al.,: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry, In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom, 2007; [2] Smith, L. C., et al.: Siberian peatlands a net carbon sink and global methane source since the early Holocene, Science, 303, 353-356, doi:10.1126/science.1090553, 2004; [3] Zhuang, Q., et al.: CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st century, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:10.1029/2006gl026972, 2006; [4] Melton, J.R., et al.: Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP), Biogeosciences, 10, 753-788, doi:10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013; [5] Best, M. J., et al.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description - Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 677-699, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011; [6] Clark, D.B., et al.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), Model description - Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation. Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 701-722, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011; [7] Friend, A.D., and N.Y. Kiang: Land surface model development for the GISS GCM: Effects of improved canopy physiology on simulated climate. J. Climate, 18, 2883-2902, doi:10.1175/JCLI3425.1, 2005; [8] Prigent, C., et al.: Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L08403, doi:10.1029/2012GL051276, 2012; [9] O'Shea, S., et al.: Methane and carbon dioxide fluxes from the European Arctic wetlands during the MAMM project, paper in preparation.

Climate Change Adaptation: Putting Principles into Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausden, Malcolm

2014-10-01

Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years. Significant long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.

Towards a measurement-based national verification system for GHG emissions: UK emission estimates of CO2 from the GAUGE experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzi, Siegfried; Palmer, Paul; O'Doherty, Simon; Young, Dickon; Stanley, Kieran; Stavert, Ann; Grant, Aoife; Helfter, Carole; Mullinger, Neil; Nemitz, Eiko; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joseph; Le Breton, Michael; Bösch, Hartmut; Sembhi, Harjinder; Sonderfeld, Hannah; Parker, Robert; Bauguitte, Stephane

2016-04-01

Robust quantification of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) is central to the success of ongoing international efforts to slow current emissions and mitigate future climate change. The Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) project aims to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of country-scale emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) using concentration measurements from a network of tall towers and mobile platforms (aircraft and ferry) distributed across the UK. The GAUGE measurement programme includes: (a) GHG measurements on a regular ferry route down the North Sea aimed at sampling UK outflow; (b) campaign deployment of the UK BAe-146 research aircraft to provide vertical profile measurements of GHG over and around the UK; (c) a high-density GHG measurement network over East Anglia that is primarily focused on the agricultural sector; and (d) regular measurements of CO2 and CH4 isotopologues used for GHG source attribution. We also use satellite observations from the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to provide continental-scale constraints on GHG flux estimates. We present CO2 flux estimates for the UK inferred from GAUGE measurements using a nested, high-resolution (25 km) version of the GEOS-Chem global atmospheric chemistry and transport model and an ensemble Kalman filter. We will present our current best estimate for CO2 fluxes and a preliminary assessment of the efficacy of individual GAUGE data sources to spatially resolve CO2 flux estimates over the UK. We will also discuss how flux estimates inferred from the different models used within GAUGE can help to assess the role of transport model error and to determine an ensemble CO2 flux estimate for the UK.

A pilot study of an online universal school-based intervention to prevent alcohol and cannabis use in the UK

PubMed Central

Newton, Nicola C; Conrod, Patricia J; Rodriguez, Daniel M; Teesson, Maree

2014-01-01

Objectives The online universal Climate Schools intervention has been found to be effective in reducing the use of alcohol and cannabis among Australian adolescents. The aim of the current study was to examine the feasibility of implementing this prevention programme in the UK. Design A pilot study examining the feasibility of the Climate Schools programme in the UK was conducted with teachers and students from Year 9 classes at two secondary schools in southeast London. Teachers were asked to implement the evidence-based Climate Schools programme over the school year with their students. The intervention consisted of two modules (each with six lessons) delivered approximately 6 months apart. Following completion of the intervention, students and teachers were asked to evaluate the programme. Results 11 teachers and 222 students from two secondary schools evaluated the programme. Overall, the evaluations were extremely positive. Specifically, 85% of students said the information on alcohol and cannabis and how to stay safe was easy to understand, 84% said it was easy to learn and 80% said the online cartoon-based format was an enjoyable way to learn health theory topics. All teachers said the students were able to recall the information taught, 82% said the computer component was easy to implement and all teachers said the teacher's manual was easy to use to prepare class activities. Importantly, 82% of teachers said it was likely that they would use the programme in the future and recommend it to others. Conclusions The Internet-based universal Climate Schools prevention programme to be both feasible and acceptable to students and teachers in the UK. A full evaluation trial of the intervention is now required to examine its effectiveness in reducing alcohol and cannabis use among adolescents in the UK before implementation in the UK school system. PMID:24840248

A coupled synoptic-hydrological model for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert; Greenfield, Brian; Glenny, Cathy

1994-01-01

A coupled atmospheric-hydrological model is presented. Sequences of daily rainfall occurrence for the 20 year period 1971-1990 at sites in the British Isles are related to the Lamb's Weather Types (LWT) by using conditional probabilities. Time series of circulation patterns and hence rainfall were then generated using a Markov representation of matrices of transition probabilities between weather types. The resultant precipitation data were used as input to a semidistributed catchment model to simulate daily flows. The combined model successfully reproduced aspects of the daily weather, precipitation and flow regimes. A range of synoptic scenarios were further investigated with particular reference to low flows in the River Coln, UK. The modelling approach represents a means of translating general circulation model (GCM) climate change predictions at the macro-scale into hydrological concerns at the catchment scale.

Drivers of Public Attitudes towards Small Wind Turbines in the UK

PubMed Central

Tatchley, Cerian; Paton, Heather; Robertson, Emma; Minderman, Jeroen; Hanley, Nicholas; Park, Kirsty

2016-01-01

Small Wind Turbines (SWTs) are a growing micro-generation industry with over 870,000 installed units worldwide. No research has focussed on public attitudes towards SWTs, despite evidence the perception of such attitudes are key to planning outcomes and can be a barrier to installations. Here we present the results of a UK wide mail survey investigating public attitudes towards SWTs. Just over half of our respondents, who were predominantly older, white males, felt that SWTs were acceptable across a range of settings, with those on road signs being most accepted and least accepted in hedgerows and gardens. Concern about climate change positively influenced how respondents felt about SWTs. Respondent comments highlight visual impacts and perceptions of the efficiency of this technology are particularly important to this sector of the UK public. Taking this into careful consideration, alongside avoiding locating SWTs in contentious settings such as hedgerows and gardens where possible, may help to minimise public opposition to proposed installations. PMID:27011356

A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK

PubMed Central

Hall, Jim W.; Murgatroyd, Anna; Acreman, Mike; Bates, Paul; Beven, Keith; Heathwaite, Louise; Holden, Joseph; Holman, Ian P.; Lane, Stuart N.; O'Connell, Enda; Penning-Rowsell, Edmund; Reynard, Nick; Sear, David; Thorne, Colin; Wilby, Rob

2017-01-01

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in the UK and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material. PMID:28413336

Drivers of Public Attitudes towards Small Wind Turbines in the UK.

PubMed

Tatchley, Cerian; Paton, Heather; Robertson, Emma; Minderman, Jeroen; Hanley, Nicholas; Park, Kirsty

2016-01-01

Small Wind Turbines (SWTs) are a growing micro-generation industry with over 870,000 installed units worldwide. No research has focussed on public attitudes towards SWTs, despite evidence the perception of such attitudes are key to planning outcomes and can be a barrier to installations. Here we present the results of a UK wide mail survey investigating public attitudes towards SWTs. Just over half of our respondents, who were predominantly older, white males, felt that SWTs were acceptable across a range of settings, with those on road signs being most accepted and least accepted in hedgerows and gardens. Concern about climate change positively influenced how respondents felt about SWTs. Respondent comments highlight visual impacts and perceptions of the efficiency of this technology are particularly important to this sector of the UK public. Taking this into careful consideration, alongside avoiding locating SWTs in contentious settings such as hedgerows and gardens where possible, may help to minimise public opposition to proposed installations.

Fungi in a changing world: growth rates will be elevated, but spore production may decrease in future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damialis, Athanasios; Mohammad, Aqilah B.; Halley, John M.; Gange, Alan C.

2015-09-01

Very little is known about the impact of climate change on fungi and especially on spore production. Fungal spores can be allergenic, thus being important for human health. The aim of this study was to investigate how climate change influences the responsive ability of fungi by simulating differing environmental regimes. Fungal species with high spore allergenic potential and atmospheric abundance were grown and experimentally examined under a variety of temperatures and different nutrient availability. Each represented the average decadal air temperature of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s in the UK, along with an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenario for 2100. All tests were run on six fungal species: Alternaria alternata, Aspergillus niger, Botrytis cinerea, Cladosporium cladosporioides, Cladosporium oxysporum and Epicoccum purpurascens. Mycelium growth rate and spore production were examined on each single species and competitive capacity among species combinations in pairs. All fungal species grew faster at higher temperatures, and this was more pronounced for the temperature projection in 2100. Most species grew faster when there was lower nutrient availability. Exceptions were the species with the highest growth rate ( E. purpurascens) and with the highest competition capacity ( A. alternata). Most species (except for E. purpurascens) produced more spores in the richer nutrient medium but fewer as temperature increased. C. cladosporioides was an exception, exponentially increasing its spore production in the temperature of the 2100 scenario. Regarding competitive capacity, no species displayed any significant alterations within the environmental range checked. It is suggested that in future climates, fungi will display dramatic growth responses, with faster mycelium growth and lower spore production, with questions risen on relevant allergen potential.

Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I. P.

2007-12-01

This paper assesses the significance of the many sources of uncertainty in future groundwater recharge estimation, based on lessons learnt from an integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge in East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect simulations of future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping, rotations and management practices. Stochastic modelling of potential recharge showed median annual recharge decreasing under a High emissions future from 75 mm (1961-90) to 56 mm in the 2020s and 45 mm in the 2050s. However, the median values for individual simulations ranged from 46-75 mm (2020s) and 30-71 mm (2050s) highlighting a decreasing but uncertain trend. The impacts of (and uncertainty in) the climate scenarios are generally regionally more important than those of the socio-economic scenarios. However, locally, the impacts of the socio-economic scenarios can be significant, especially where there are large increases in urbanization, agricultural land cover, bioenergy production, or agricultural management practices. For example, management of soil conditions can increase potential groundwater recharge by around 5 %, but poor management can further reduce potential recharge by up to 15 %. The paper will demonstrate that to focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists

Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosking, J. Scott; MacLeod, D.; Phillips, T.; Holmes, C. R.; Watson, P.; Shuckburgh, E. F.; Mitchell, D.

2018-05-01

Global climate model simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project were used to assess how wind power generation over Europe would change in a future world where global temperatures reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Comparing recent historical (2006–2015) and future 1.5 °C forcing experiments highlights that the climate models demonstrate a northward shift in the Atlantic jet, leading to a significant (p < 0.01) increase in surface winds over the UK and Northern Europe and a significant (p < 0.05) reduction over Southern Europe. We use a wind turbine power model to transform daily near-surface (10 m) wind speeds into daily wind power output, accounting for sub-daily variability, the height of the turbine, and power losses due to transmission and distribution of electricity. To reduce regional model biases we use bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds. We see an increase in power generation potential over much of Europe, with the greatest increase in load factor over the UK of around four percentage points. Increases in variability are seen over much of central and northern Europe with the largest seasonal change in summer. Focusing on the UK, we find that wind energy production during spring and autumn under 1.5 °C forcing would become as productive as it is currently during the peak winter season. Similarly, summer winds would increase driving up wind generation to resemble levels currently seen in spring and autumn. We conclude that the potential for wind energy in Northern Europe may be greater than has been previously assumed, with likely increases even in a 1.5 °C warmer world. While there is the potential for Southern Europe to see a reduction in their wind resource, these decreases are likely to be negligible.

Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.

2009-12-01

The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long-term performance was assessed using groundwater levels at various long period observation wells, including Chilgrove. Extreme event analyses (annual maximum daily flow, annual minimum groundwater level) based on historic model runs, looking at successive 30 year time periods, show high variability in the values of extreme events, However, there is far less (by an order of magnitude) variation in more frequent (i.e. less extreme) events with a recurrence interval of around 0.6 (i.e. a return period of around 1.67 years). Simulations of climate change impact for 2020 emission scenarios using UKCIP02 data give 0.6 recurrence estimates that are significantly different (at the 1% confidence level) than those obtained from historic data, which is not the case for more extreme events. It is proposed that, at least for such permeable catchments, deviations from historic values of this relatively frequent recurrence interval provide a more robust indicator for detecting evidence of climate change than focusing on much rarer, albeit more dramatic, events.

Use of a safety climate questionnaire in UK health care: factor structure, reliability and usability.

PubMed

Hutchinson, A; Cooper, K L; Dean, J E; McIntosh, A; Patterson, M; Stride, C B; Laurence, B E; Smith, C M

2006-10-01

To explore the factor structure, reliability, and potential usefulness of a patient safety climate questionnaire in UK health care. Four acute hospital trusts and nine primary care trusts in England. The questionnaire used was the 27 item Teamwork and Safety Climate Survey. Thirty three healthcare staff commented on the wording and relevance. The questionnaire was then sent to 3650 staff within the 13 NHS trusts, seeking to achieve at least 600 responses as the basis for the factor analysis. 1307 questionnaires were returned (36% response). Factor analyses and reliability analyses were carried out on 897 responses from staff involved in direct patient care, to explore how consistently the questions measured the underlying constructs of safety climate and teamwork. Some questionnaire items related to multiple factors or did not relate strongly to any factor. Five items were discarded. Two teamwork factors were derived from the remaining 11 teamwork items and three safety climate factors were derived from the remaining 11 safety items. Internal consistency reliabilities were satisfactory to good (Cronbach's alpha > or =0.69 for all five factors). This is one of the few studies to undertake a detailed evaluation of a patient safety climate questionnaire in UK health care and possibly the first to do so in primary as well as secondary care. The results indicate that a 22 item version of this safety climate questionnaire is useable as a research instrument in both settings, but also demonstrates a more general need for thorough validation of safety climate questionnaires before widespread usage.

Earthwatch and the HSBC Climate Partnership: Linking climate change and forests management one citizen scientist at a time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stover, D. B.; Jones, A.; Kusek, K.; Bebber, D.; Phillips, R.; Campbell, J.

2010-12-01

Earthwatch has engaged more than 90,000 citizen scientists in long-term research studies since its founding in 1971. One of its newer research and engagement programs is the HSBC Climate Partnership, a five-year global program on climate change to inspire action by individuals, businesses and governments (2007-2012). In this unique NGO-business partnership, Earthwatch has implemented five forest research-focused climate centers in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. At each center, a team of scientists—supported by HSBC banking employees and local citizen scientists—is gathering data to determine how temperate and tropical forests are affected by changes in climate and human activity. Results are establishing baseline data to empower forest managers, conservationists and communities with the information they need to better manage forests within a changing climate. A critical component of the program is the engagement of 2,200 corporate HSBC employees who spend two weeks out of the office at one of the regional climate centers. They work alongside leading scientists to perform forest research by day, and participate each evening in an interactive education program on the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of climate change—including how climate change impacts HSBC’s bottom line. Program participants are empowered and have successfully developed sustainability projects they implement back in their office, homes and communities that furthers corporate and public commitment to sustainability and combating the effects of climate change. In addition to the corporate engagement model, Earthwatch has successfully engaged scores of local community stakeholders in the HSBC Climate Partnership, including teachers who report back to their classrooms “live from the field,” reporters and other business/NGO leaders in modified one week versions of the field program. New models of citizen science engagement are currently under development, with best practices and stories documenting the effectiveness of the program design from a research, engagement and business perspective. In US, the program has successfully collected over 10,000 hours of data collection in just 2 years and has contributed to our understanding of positive growth response to climate change in the Chesapeake Bay forests. Additionally, preliminary results are indicating that invasive species recruitment in recently logging areas is modifying the future crown species dominance. By the end of the program, nearly 100,000 citizen science research hours will have been invested in the program globally—leading to scientific publications on forest responses to climate change, policy development and citizen engagement.

Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.

2013-04-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are expected to increase 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered by climate change (IPCC, 2007). Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Altered climate will, therefore, have an effect on soil processes and properties. Studies into the effects of climate change on soil processes and properties are still incomplete, but have revealed that climate change will impact soil organic matter dynamics including soil organisms and the multiple soil properties that are tied to organic matter, soil water, and soil erosion. The exact direction and magnitude of those impacts will be dependent on the amount of change in atmospheric gases, temperature, and precipitation amounts and patterns. Recent studies give reason to believe at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric carbon as temperatures rise; this is particularly true of high latitude regions with permanently frozen soils. Soil erosion by both wind and water is also likely to increase. These soil changes will lead to both direct and indirect impacts on human health. Possible indirect impacts include temperature extremes, food safety and air quality issues, increased and/or expanded disease incidences, and occupational health issues. Potential direct impacts include decreased food security and increased atmospheric dust levels. However, there are still many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the nitrogen cycle and, in turn, how the nitrogen cycle will affect carbon sequestration in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of soil water-CO2 level-temperature relationships. Knowledge of the response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus and how that affects soil organic matter dynamics is a critical need. There is also a great need for a better understanding of how soil organisms will respond to climate change because those organisms are incredibly important in a number of soil processes, including the carbon and nitrogen cycles. All of these questions are important in trying to understand human health impacts. More information on climate change, soils, and human health issues can be found in Brevik (2012). References Brevik, E.C. 2012. Climate change, soils, and human health. In: E.C. Brevik and L. Burgess (Eds). Soils and human health. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL. in press. IPCC. 2007. Summary for policymakers. pp. 1-18. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Combined terrestrial and marine biomarker records from an Icelandic fjord: insights into Holocene climate drivers and marine/ terrestrial responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moossen, H. M.; Seki, O.; Quillmann, U.; Andrews, J. T.; Bendle, J. A.

2012-12-01

Holocene climate change has affected human cultures throughout at least the last 4000 years (D'Andrea et al., 2011). Today, studying Holocene climate variability is important, both to constrain the influence of climate change on ancient cultures and to place contemporary climate change in a historic context. Organic geochemical biomarkers are an ideal tool to study how climatic changes have affected terrestrial and marine ecosystems, as a host of different biomarker based climate proxies have emerged over recent years. Applying the available biomarker proxies on sediment cores from fjordic environments facilitates the study of how climate has affected terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and how these ecosystems have interacted. Ìsafjardardjúp fjord in Northwest Iceland is an ideal location to study North Atlantic Holocene climate change because the area is very sensitive to changes in the oceanic and atmospheric current systems (Hurrell, 1995; Quillmann et al., 2010). In this study we present high resolution (1 sample/30 calibrated years) terrestrial and marine biomarker records from a 38 m sediment core from Ìsafjardardjúp fjord covering the Holocene. We reconstruct sea surface temperature variations using the alkenone derived UK'37 proxy. Air temperature changes are reconstructed using the GDGT derived MBT/CBT palaeothermometer. We use the average chain length (ACL) variability of n-alkanes derived from terrestrial higher plant leaf waxes to reconstruct changing precipitation regimes. The relationship between ACL and precipitation is confirmed by comparing it with the δD signature of the C29 n-alkane and soil pH changes inferred by the CBT proxy. The combined sea surface and air temperature and precipitation records indicate that different climate changing drivers were dominant at different stages of the Holocene. Sea surface temperatures were strongly influenced by the melting of the remaining glaciers from the last glacial maximum throughout the early Holocene, while air temperatures were influenced by high solar insolation. The central Holocene climate is mainly driven by decreasing northern hemisphere insolation, while the lateral transport of energy from the equator into the North Atlantic region drives climate change in the late Holocene. D'Andrea, W.J., Huang, Y., Fritz, S.C., Anderson, N.J., (2011) Abrupt Holocene climate change as an important factor for human migration in West Greenland. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(24), 9765-9769. Hurrell, J.W., (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation - Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269(5224), 676-679. Quillmann, U., Jennings, A., Andrews, J., (2010) Reconstructing Holocene palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography in Isafjaroardjup, northwest Iceland, from two fjord records overprinted by relative sea-level and local hydrographic changes. Journal of Quaternary Science, 25(7), 1144-1159.

Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Antara; Maycock, Amanda C.; Pyle, John A.

2018-02-01

The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model). Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of -0.09 W m-2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m-2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m-2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (˜ 15 %) of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m-2) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (-0.07 W m-2) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m-2) for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs.

The Effects of a Changing Climate and Urbanisation on River Flows in the Thames Basin, UK - a Hydrological Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J. D.; Rickards, N. J.; Kjeldsen, T. R.; Hutchins, M.; Rowland, C.; Prudhomme, C.; Maliko, T.; Fidal, J.; Hagen-Zanker, A.

2016-12-01

The UK population is set to increase by 16% by 2035; it is therefore increasingly important to understand the impact this may have on urban populations, and in turn how this will affect river flow regimes and water quality in urban areas. A growing population is likely to lead to an increase in urban land use and impervious surfaces, the implications of which are not yet fully understood for issues such as future flood risk. The aim of this paper is to develop a greater understanding of the impacts of both an increasing population and urban extent in the context of a changing climate, and to assess the effect these may have on urban streamflow regimes and water security in the future. Flows are modelled for selected catchments in the Thames basin using URBMOD, a lumped rainfall runoff model that is able to represent both pervious and impervious surfaces, reducing infiltration in catchments where there is a greater urban extent. The model uses daily catchment average rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from gridded data, and is calibrated against long-term river flow records. Historic satellite imagery is used to train cellular automata land use models, which are then applied under different scenarios of urban development up to 2035. These changes in land use are combined with a range of climate change scenarios to give an indication of how urban flow regimes may be altered in the Thames basin over the next 20 years. Results suggest an intensification of the hydrological regime in the majority of catchments, with increases in high flow magnitudes (Q10) of up to 5%. The trend for low flows (Q90) is less clear, with some catchments displaying reductions of around 4%, whilst others show slight increased flows. We identify the main drivers behind these changes, from which the fine-scale impacts of urbanisation on water resources can be better understood. Research findings are being used to inform a regional-scale model, coupling water quantity and quality and providing insight to urban planners and stakeholders on the future urban hydrological regime in the Thames basin. Similar approaches are being used to assess impacts of anthropogenic drivers on water resources in the Cauvery basin in India, whereby the applicability of the model under very different climate and urban morphology will be tested.

The Longterm Effects of Climate Change in European Shrubland Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmett, B.; Sowerby, A.; Smith, A.; EU Increase-infrastructure Project Team

2011-12-01

Shrublands constitute significant and important parts of European landscapes providing a large number of important ecosystem services. Biogeochemical cycles in these ecosystems have gained little attention relative to forests and grassland systems. As climate change progresses the potential feedback from the biosphere to the atmosphere through changes in above and below-ground structure and functioning will become increasingly important. A series of replicate long term climate change experiments have been running for ca. 10 years in contrasting shrubland types across Europe to quantify; (a) the potential changes in carbon sequestration, GHG emissions and nutrient cycling, (b) the links to above and below-ground biodiversity, and (c) implications for water quality, in response to warming and repeated summer drought. Results indicate a relatively high rate of below-ground carbon allocation compared to forest systems and the importance of modifying factors such as past and current management, atmospheric deposition and soil type in determining resilience to change. Unexpectedly, sustained reduction in soil moisture over winter (between drought periods and despite major winter rainfall) was observed in the repeated summer drought treatment, along with a reduction in the maximum water-holding capacity attained. The persistent reduction in soil moisture throughout the year resulted in a year-round increase in soil respiration flux, a response that accelerated over time to 40% above control levels in the hydric, organic-rich UK system. As above-ground biomass, litter production and diversity was remarkably stable, changes in soil fungal communities and soil physical structure appear to be critical in driving changes in soil carbon fluxes in this organic-rich site. Current ecosystem models may under-estimate potential changes in carbon loss in response to climate change if changes in soil biological and physical properties are not included.

Land Use and Management Change in the U.S. with Adaptation and Mitigation under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, J. E.; McCarl, B.

2011-12-01

Land use and management change interact with climate change. Land uses such as forestry, cropping and grazing depend on specific ecosystems that will be affected by climate change. Furthermore, this change will not be uniform across land uses or regions. Consequently, land use productivity will change as will the mix of land uses (Mendelsohn and Dinar 2009). On the other hand, land use has been a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). Therefore, research focusing on land use change, climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation should consider the interaction between these effects. The research to be reported in this presentation investigates how agricultural and forestry land use and management decisions change across the coterminous U.S. under climate change with and without adaptation plus how a carbon price policy influences decisions, mitigates GHG emissions and alters carbon sequestration. Our approach is to simulate behavior under climate scenarios by 2030 using data from alternative two climate and two vegetation models while allowing for adaptive responses and imposing carbon prices. To do this, we use the Forest and Agricultural Optimization model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) (Adams et al. 2005). In total, 16 scenarios are considered involving climate change and GHG prices relative to a base case with no climate change and no adaptation or mitigation. After analyzing results across regions and sectors, our findings include: 1.More land is converted to forestry use and less land is used for agricultural purposes under both the adaptation and mitigation strategies. 2. Harvest rotation of hardwood is lengthened and harvest of softwood and hardwood are reduced when a carbon price is included. However, such management changes were insignificant when only the adaptation strategy is used. 3. The total GHG emissions from agricultural and forestry sector are increased by 2-3 millions tones CO2 equivalent under climate change and adaptation in the absence of GHG prices, but when those prices are introduced emissions are reduced by 6 millions tones CO2 equivalent. Similarly, under climate change, GHG prices stimulate a gain in carbon sequestration in the agricultural and forestry sectors. 4. Forest sector welfare and crop producer surplus is reduced under the adaption policy by a small amount, that is -0.02 and 0.14-0.2 billion dollars respectively. However, forest welfare, agricultural welfare, crop producer surplus and livestock producer surplus all increased, by 0.62, 0.67, 0.84 and 1.48 billion dollars, respectively when GHG prices are introduced. References Adams DM, Alig RJ, McCarl BA et al., 2005. FASOMGHG conceptual structure, and specification: documentation. Texas A&M University, (http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/ 1212FASOMGHG_doc.pdf) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Mendelsohn R, Dinar A. 2009. Land Use and Climate Change Interactions. Annual Review of Resource Economics. 1: 309-332.

Testing the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batelis, Stamatios-Christos; Rosolem, Rafael; Han, Dawei; Rahman, Mostaquimur

2017-04-01

Land Surface Models (LSM) are based on physics principles and simulate the exchanges of energy, water and biogeochemical cycles between the land surface and lower atmosphere. Such models are typically applied for climate studies or effects of land use changes but as the resolution of LSMs and supporting observations are continuously increasing, its representation of hydrological processes need to be addressed adequately. For example, changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology of a region, for instance, by altering its flooding regime. LSMs can be a powerful tool because of their ability to spatially represent a region with much finer resolution. However, despite such advantages, its performance has not been extensively assessed for flood forecasting simply because its representation of typical hydrological processes, such as overland flow and river routing, are still either ignored or roughly represented. In this study, we initially test the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) as a flood forecast tool focusing on its river routing scheme. In particular, JULES river routing parameterization is based on the Rapid Flow Model (RFM) which relies on six prescribed parameters (two surface and two subsurface wave celerities, and two return flow fractions). Although this routing scheme is simple, the prescription of its six default parameters is still too generalized. Our aim is to understand the importance of each RFM parameter in a series of JULES simulations at a number of catchments in the UK for the 2006-2015 period. This is carried out, for instance, by making a number of assumptions of parameter behaviour (e.g., spatially uniform versus varying and/or temporally constant or time-varying parameters within each catchment). Hourly rainfall radar in combination with the CHESS (Climate, Hydrological and Ecological research Support System) meteorological daily data both at 1 km2 resolution are used. The evaluation of the model is based on hourly runoff data provided by the National River Flood Archive using a number of model performance metrics. We use a calibrated conceptually-based lumped model, more typically applied in flood studies, as a benchmark for our analysis.

Using simple chaotic models to interpret climate under climate change: Implications for probabilistic climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daron, Joseph

2010-05-01

Exploring the reliability of model based projections is an important pre-cursor to evaluating their societal relevance. In order to better inform decisions concerning adaptation (and mitigation) to climate change, we must investigate whether or not our models are capable of replicating the dynamic nature of the climate system. Whilst uncertainty is inherent within climate prediction, establishing and communicating what is plausible as opposed to what is likely is the first step to ensuring that climate sensitive systems are robust to climate change. Climate prediction centers are moving towards probabilistic projections of climate change at regional and local scales (Murphy et al., 2009). It is therefore important to understand what a probabilistic forecast means for a chaotic nonlinear dynamic system that is subject to changing forcings. It is in this context that we present the results of experiments using simple models that can be considered analogous to the more complex climate system, namely the Lorenz 1963 and Lorenz 1984 models (Lorenz, 1963; Lorenz, 1984). Whilst the search for a low-dimensional climate attractor remains illusive (Fraedrich, 1986; Sahay and Sreenivasan, 1996) the characterization of the climate system in such terms can be useful for conceptual and computational simplicity. Recognising that a change in climate is manifest in a change in the distribution of a particular climate variable (Stainforth et al., 2007), we first establish the equilibrium distributions of the Lorenz systems for certain parameter settings. Allowing the parameters to vary in time, we investigate the dependency of such distributions to initial conditions and discuss the implications for climate prediction. We argue that the role of chaos and nonlinear dynamic behaviour ought to have more prominence in the discussion of the forecasting capabilities in climate prediction. References: Fraedrich, K. Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors. J. Atmos. Sci, 43, 419-432, 1986. Lorenz, E. N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141, 1963. Lorenz, E. N. Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere. Tellus, 36A, 98-110, 1984. Murphy, J. M., D. M. H. Sexton, G. J. Jenkins, B. B. B. Booth, C. C. Brown, R. T. Clark, M. Collins, G. R. Harris, E. J. Kendon, R. A. Betts, S. J. Brown, P. Boorman, T. P. Howard, K. A. Humphrey, M. P. McCarthy, R. E. McDonald, A. Stephens, C. Wallace, R. Warren, R. Wilby, and R. A. Wood. Uk climate projections science report: Climate change projections. 2009. Sahay, A. and K. R. Sreenivasan. The search for a low-dimensional characterization of a local climate system. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A., 354, 1715-1750, 1996. Stainforth, D. A., M. R. Allen, E. R. Tredger, and L. A. Smith. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161, 2007.

Records from Lake Qinghai: Holocene climate history of Northeastern Tibetan Plateau linking to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Z.; Colman, S.; Zhou, W.; Brown, E.; Li, X.; Jull, T.; Wang, S.; Liu, W.; Sun, Y.; Lu, X.; Song, Y.; Chang, H.; Cai, Y.; Xu, H.; Wang, X.; Liu, X.; Wu, F.; Han, Y.; Cheng, P.; Ai, L.; Wang, Z.; Qiang, X.; Shen, J.; Zhu, Y.; Wu, Z.; Liu, X.

2008-12-01

Lake Qinghai (99°36'-100°16'E, 36°32'-37°15'N ) of the north eastern margin of Tibet Plateau is the largest inland lake of China. It sits on the transitional zone of Asian monsoon- arid areas, receives influences of Asian monsoons and Westerlies, thus sensitive to global climate changes. Although previous studies had investigated Holocene climate change of Lake Qinghai area, it is rare to see precise Holocene climatic sequences of Lake Qinghai, nor in-depth discussions on controlling factors of Lake Qinghai climate changes. In Year 2005, with support from ICDP, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) and National Science Foundation of China (NSFC), Drilling, Observation and Sampling of the Earths Continental Crust Corporation (DOSECC) and Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IEECAS) took a series of shallows cores from the southern basin of Lake Qinghai. West sub-basin sediments display Holocene lacustrine feature for the upper 5m, while the 5-18m are interbeded sediments of shallow lake, eolian-lacustrine and eolian loess. Chinese and US scientists with support from NSFC, MOST, CAS and NSF analysed 1F core from west sub-basin depocenter of the south basin with multiple physical, chemical, biological approaches. By comparing with modern process observation records, we obtained proxies that respectfully reflect precipitation, temperature and lake salinity changes, etc., reconstructed high resolution time sequences of magnetic susceptibility, colour scale, grain size, Corg, C/N, δ13Corg, carbonate, δ13C and δ18O of carbonate and ostracodes, elements, char-soot,Uk'37 and %C37:4 as well as pollen of the last 13Ka. They indicate the climatic change history of Lake Qinghai since past 13Ka, and agreeable evidences are found from adjacent tree ring and stalagmite records. Comparison of Lake Qinghai Holocene climate change sequence with those from high altitude ice core, stalagmites and ocean records for East Asian monsoon and Indian monsoon show that, in accordance with Asian monsoon climate changes, at 11-5ka cal. 14C BP Lake Qinghai revealed the warm and humid Optimal climate, while since 5ka cal.14C BP the Lake showed relatively cold and dry climate of New Glaciation, this orbital climate trend resembled northern hemisphere summer solar insolation changes. Lake Qinghai millennial-centennial climate events in Holocene are linked with Westerlies changes, and with East Asian summer monsoon front shift as well as winter monsoon, on centennial-decadal scale Lake Qinghai climate changes are controlled more by solar activities.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2010-01-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Sustainable diet policy development: implications of multi-criteria and other approaches, 2008-2017.

PubMed

Lang, Tim; Mason, Pamela

2017-12-04

The objective of the present paper is to draw lessons from policy development on sustainable diets. It considers the emergence of sustainable diets as a policy issue and reviews the environmental challenge to nutrition science as to what a 'good' diet is for contemporary policy. It explores the variations in how sustainable diets have been approached by policy-makers. The paper considers how international United Nations and European Union (EU) policy engagement now centres on the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals and Paris Climate Change Accord, which require changes across food systems. The paper outlines national sustainable diet policy in various countries: Australia, Brazil, France, the Netherlands, Qatar, Sweden, UK and USA. While no overarching common framework for sustainable diets has appeared, a policy typology of lessons for sustainable diets is proposed, differentiating (a) orientation and focus, (b) engagement styles and (c) modes of leadership. The paper considers the particularly tortuous rise and fall of UK governmental interest in sustainable diet advice. Initial engagement in the 2000s turned to disengagement in the 2010s, yet some advice has emerged. The 2016 referendum to leave the EU has created a new period of policy uncertainty for the UK food system. This might marginalise attempts to generate sustainable diet advice, but could also be an opportunity for sustainable diets to be a goal for a sustainable UK food system. The role of nutritionists and other food science professions will be significant in this period of policy flux.

Trajectories of water table recovery following the re-vegetation of bare peat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuttleworth, Emma; Evans, Martin; Allott, Tim; Maskill, Rachael; Pilkington, Michael; Walker, Jonathan

2016-04-01

The hydrological status of blanket peat influences a wide range of peatland functions, such as runoff generation, water quality, vegetation distribution, and rates of carbon sequestration. The UK supports 15% of the world's blanket peat cover, but much of this vital resource is significantly degraded, impacted by industrial pollution, overgrazing, wildfire, and climatic shifts. These pressures have produced a unique landscape characterised by severe gully erosion and extensive areas of bare peat. This in turn has led water tables to become substantially drawn down, impacting peatland function and limiting the resilience of these landscapes to future changes in climate. The restoration of eroding UK peatlands is a major conservation concern, and landscape-scale interventions through the re-vegetation of bare peat is becoming increasingly extensive in areas of upland Britain. Water table is the primary physical parameter considered in the monitoring of many peatland restoration projects, and there is a wealth of data on individual monitoring programmes which indicates that re-vegetation significantly raises water tables. This paper draws on data from multiple restoration projects carried out by the Moors for the Future Partnership in the Southern Pennines, UK, covering a range of stages in the erosion-restoration continuum, to assess the trajectories of water table recovery following re-vegetation. This will allow us to generate projections of future water table recovery, which will be of benefit to land managers and conservation organisations to inform future restoration initiatives.

Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modelling.

PubMed

Wheater, H S

2002-07-15

Recent floods in the UK have raised public and political awareness of flood risk. There is an increasing recognition that flood management and land-use planning are linked, and that decision-support modelling tools are required to address issues of climate and land-use change for integrated catchment management. In this paper, the scientific context for fluvial flood modelling is discussed, current modelling capability is considered and research challenges are identified. Priorities include (i) appropriate representation of spatial precipitation, including scenarios of climate change; (ii) development of a national capability for continuous hydrological simulation of ungauged catchments; (iii) improved scientific understanding of impacts of agricultural land-use and land-management change, and the development of new modelling approaches to represent those impacts; (iv) improved representation of urban flooding, at both local and catchment scale; (v) appropriate parametrizations for hydraulic simulation of in-channel and flood-plain flows, assimilating available ground observations and remotely sensed data; and (vi) a flexible decision-support modelling framework, incorporating developments in computing, data availability, data assimilation and uncertainty analysis.

Ticks infesting domestic dogs in the UK: a large-scale surveillance programme.

PubMed

Abdullah, Swaid; Helps, Chris; Tasker, Severine; Newbury, Hannah; Wall, Richard

2016-07-07

Recent changes in the distribution of tick vectors and the incidence of tick-borne disease, driven variously by factors such as climate change, habitat modification, increasing host abundance and the increased movement of people and animals, highlight the importance of ongoing, active surveillance. This paper documents the results of a large-scale survey of tick abundance on dogs presented to veterinary practices in the UK, using a participatory approach that allows relatively cost- and time-effective extensive data collection. Over a period of 16 weeks (April-July 2015), 1094 veterinary practices were recruited to monitor tick attachment to dogs and provided with a tick collection and submission protocol. Recruitment was encouraged through a national publicity and communication initiative. Participating practices were asked to select five dogs at random each week and undertake a thorough, standardized examination of each dog for ticks. The clinical history and any ticks were then sent to the investigators for identification. A total of 12,000 and 96 dogs were examined and 6555 tick samples from infested dogs were received. Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus) was identified on 5265 dogs (89 %), Ixodes hexagonus Leach on 577 (9.8 %) and Ixodes canisuga Johnston on 46 (0.8 %). Ten dogs had Dermacentor reticulatus (Fabricius), one had Dermacentor variabilis (Say), three had Haemaphysalis punctata Canesteini & Fanzago and 13 had Rhipicephalus sanguineus Latreille. 640 ticks were too damaged for identification. All the R. sanguineus and the single D. variabilis were on dogs with a recent history of travel outside the UK. The overall prevalence of tick attachment was 30 % (range 28-32 %). The relatively high prevalence recorded is likely to have been inflated by the method of participant recruitment. The data presented provide a comprehensive spatial understanding of tick distribution and species abundance in the UK against which future changes can be compared. Relative prevalence maps show the highest rates in Scotland and south west England providing a valuable guide to tick-bite risk in the UK.

Tectonic and climatic considerations for deep geological disposal of radioactive waste: A UK perspective.

PubMed

McEvoy, F M; Schofield, D I; Shaw, R P; Norris, S

2016-11-15

Identifying and evaluating the factors that might impact on the long-term integrity of a deep Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) and its surrounding geological and surface environment is central to developing a safety case for underground disposal of radioactive waste. The geological environment should be relatively stable and its behaviour adequately predictable so that scientifically sound evaluations of the long-term radiological safety of a GDF can be made. In considering this, it is necessary to take into account natural processes that could affect a GDF or modify its geological environment up to 1millionyears into the future. Key processes considered in this paper include those which result from plate tectonics, such as seismicity and volcanism, as well as climate-related processes, such as erosion, uplift and the effects of glaciation. Understanding the inherent variability of process rates, critical thresholds and likely potential influence of unpredictable perturbations represent significant challenges to predicting the natural environment. From a plate-tectonic perspective, a one million year time frame represents a very short segment of geological time and is largely below the current resolution of observation of past processes. Similarly, predicting climate system evolution on such time-scales, particularly beyond 200ka AP is highly uncertain, relying on estimating the extremes within which climate and related processes may vary with reasonable confidence. The paper highlights some of the challenges facing a deep geological disposal program in the UK to review understanding of the natural changes that may affect siting and design of a GDF. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, C. L.; Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H. J.; Burton, A.; Dawson, R. J.; Glenis, V.; Manning, L. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2015-09-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days, and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth the median number of drought order occurrences may increase five-fold. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence a portfolio of measures are required.

GloboLakes: A global observatory of lake responses to environmental change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groom, Steve; Tyler, Andrew; Hunter, Peter; Spyrakos, Evangelos; Martinez-Vicente, Victor; Merchant, Chris; Cutler, Mark; Rowan, John; Dawson, Terry; Maberly, Stephen; Cavalho, Laurence; Elliot, Alex; Thackery, Stephen; Miller, Claire; Scott, Marian

2014-05-01

The world's freshwater ecosystems are vital components of the global biosphere, yet are vulnerable to climate and other human-induced change. There is increasing recognition that lakes play an important role in global biogeochemical cycling and provide key ecosystem services. However, our understanding of how lakes respond to environmental change at a global scale, and how this impacts on their status and function, is hampered by limited information on their chemical, physical and ecological condition. There are estimated to be over 300 million lakes globally, of which over 17,000 are greater than 10 km2 in surface area. These numbers have limited the systematic study of lake ecosystems. GloboLakes is a five-year UK research programme investigating the state of lakes and their response to climatic and other environmental drivers of change. It will establish a satellite-based observatory with archive and near-real time data processing to produce a time series of observed biogeochemical parameters and lake temperature for over 1000 lakes globally. This will be supported by linked ancillary data on climate and catchment land-use. The ability to monitor a large number of lakes consistently at high frequency and globally will facilitate a paradigm shift in our understanding of how lakes respond to environmental change at different spatial and temporal scales. A key requirement is to validate satellite retrieval algorithms and test the time-series of resulting lake properties such as chlorophyll-a by comparison with in situ data. To support the former extensive bio-optical and constituent data were taken in year 1 of the project in a number of UK lakes with a variety of trophic states. Furthermore, for wider validation activities GloboLakes has established the LIMNADES initiative to create a centralised database of ground bio-optical measurements of worldwide lakes through voluntary cooperation across the international scientific community. This presentation will introduce the GloboLakes project including its scientific ambitions for the next 4 years, present initial results, focussing on in-water optical data and describe the LIMNADES database.

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

PubMed

Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

2014-06-01

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transitions to material efficiency in the UK steel economy.

PubMed

Allwood, Julian M

2013-03-13

Steel production is energy intensive so already has achieved impressive levels of energy efficiency. If the emissions associated with steel must be reduced in line with the requirements of the UK Climate Change Act, demand for new steel must be reduced. The strategies of 'material efficiency' aim to achieve such a reduction, while delivering the same final services. To meet the emissions targets set into UK law, UK consumption of steel must be reduced to 30 per cent of present levels by 2050. Previous work has revealed six strategies that could contribute to this target, and this paper presents an approximate analysis of the required transition. A macro-economic analysis of steel in the UK shows that while the steel industry is relatively small, the construction and manufacturing sectors are large, and it would be politically unacceptable to pursue options that lead to a major contraction in other sectors. Alternative business models are therefore required, and these are explored through four representative products--one for each final sector with particular emphasis given to options for reducing product weight, and extending product life. Preliminary evidence on the triggers that would lead to customers preferring these options is presented and organized in order to predict required policy measures. The estimated analysis of transitions explored in this paper is used to define target questions for future research in the area.

Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

2010-05-01

An increased uptake of alternative low or non-CO2 emitting energy sources is one of the key priorities for policy makers to mitigate the effects of environmental change. Relatively little work has been undertaken on the mitigation potential of Ground Coupled Heat Pumps (GCHPs) despite the fact that a GCHP could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from heating systems. It is predicted that under climate change the most probable scenario is for UK temperatures to increase and for winter rainfall to become more abundant; the latter is likely to cause a general rise in groundwater levels. Summer rainfall may reduce considerably, while vegetation type and density may change. Furthermore, recent studies underline the likelihood of an increase in the number of heat waves. Under such a scenario, GCHPs will increasingly be used for cooling as well as heating. These factors will affect long-term performance of horizontal GCHP systems and hence their economic viability and mitigation potential during their life span ( 50 years). The seasonal temperature differences encountered in soil are harnessed by GCHPs to provide heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. The performance of a GCHP system will depend on technical factors (heat exchanger (HE) type, length, depth, and spacing of pipes), but also it will be determined to a large extent by interactions between the below-ground parts of the system and the environment (atmospheric conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics). Depending on the balance between extraction and rejection of heat from and to the ground, the soil temperature in the neighbourhood of the HE may fall or rise. The GROMIT project (GROund coupled heat pumps MITigation potential), funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (UK), is a multi-disciplinary research project, in collaboration with EarthEnergy Ltd., which aims to quantify the CO2 mitigation potential of horizontal GCHPs. It considers changing environmental conditions and combines model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

Beyond cool: adapting upland streams for climate change using riparian woodlands.

PubMed

Thomas, Stephen M; Griffiths, Siân W; Ormerod, Steve J

2016-01-01

Managed adaptation could reduce the risks of climate change to the world's ecosystems, but there have been surprisingly few practical evaluations of the options available. For example, riparian woodland is advocated widely as shade to reduce warming in temperate streams, but few studies have considered collateral effects on species composition or ecosystem functions. Here, we use cross-sectional analyses at two scales (region and within streams) to investigate whether four types of riparian management, including those proposed to reduce potential climate change impacts, might also affect the composition, functional character, dynamics and energetic resourcing of macroinvertebrates in upland Welsh streams (UK). Riparian land use across the region had only small effects on invertebrate taxonomic composition, while stable isotope data showed how energetic resources assimilated by macroinvertebrates in all functional guilds were split roughly 50:50 between terrestrial and aquatic origins irrespective of riparian management. Nevertheless, streams draining the most extensive deciduous woodland had the greatest stocks of coarse particulate matter (CPOM) and greater numbers of 'shredding' detritivores. Stream-scale investigations showed that macroinvertebrate biomass in deciduous woodland streams was around twice that in moorland streams, and lowest of all in streams draining non-native conifers. The unexpected absence of contrasting terrestrial signals in the isotopic data implies that factors other than local land use affect the relative incorporation of allochthonous subsidies into riverine food webs. Nevertheless, our results reveal how planting deciduous riparian trees along temperate headwaters as an adaptation to climate change can modify macroinvertebrate function, increase biomass and potentially enhance resilience by increasing basal resources where cover is extensive (>60 m riparian width). We advocate greater urgency in efforts to understand the ecosystem consequences of climate change adaptation to guide future actions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The dual threat of urbanisation and climate change in urbanising catchments - integrated science to meet future challenges - a case study of the Thames catchment, United Kingdom.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J.; Hutchins, M.; McGrane, S. J.; Kjeldsen, T. R.; Rowland, C.; Hagen-Zanker, A.; Rickards, N. J.; Fidal, J.; Vesuviano, G.; Hitt, O.

2016-12-01

Rapid urbanisation coupled with climate change poses a significant threat of increased flooding in urban locations around the world. In the UK there is a lack of joined up science and monitoring data to support model development and management decisions required for a rapidly growing population. Here, we present the findings from a multi-disciplinary research project entitled POLLCURB involving a combination of both monitoring and modelling approaches, including participatory citizen science, to evaluate impacts of urbanisation and climate change on flooding and water quality in the Thames basin, United Kingdom. Empirical analysis of five years of monitoring data in intensely monitored sub-catchments reveals the degree to which urban land-use impacts upon hydrological and water quality response. Analysis reveals hydrological impacts do not always follow the expected urban gradient due to intra-catchment differences in hydraulic functions. Statistical detection and attribution techniques are used to assess long-term river data, highlighting strong signals of urban growth after climate variability is accounted for. Historical land-use change mapping of the Thames basin using remote sensing shows growth in urban coverage from around 13% (1980's) to 15% (2015) and was used to develop and train a cellular automata model. Projections of a business-as-usual scenario indicates future growth of 12% by 2035. Future potential changes to flooding and water quality are assessed under urbanisation and climate scenarios for the Thames region to provide comparative and cumulative analysis of how these drivers will affect existing and new urban areas within the Thames basin. Results show the relative and cumulative impacts that both urbanisation and climate change have on basin hydrology and water quality, and highlight the improvements in modelling accuracy when utilising high-resolution data. Discussion is made of results in relation to modelling, policy, mitigation options, and implications for further scientific research.

Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Roberts, Nigel M.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Blenkinsop, Stephen

2016-04-01

The Met Office 1.5-km UKV convective-permitting models (CPM) is used to downscale present-climate and RCP8.5 60-km HadGEM3 GCM simulations. Extreme UK hourly precipitation intensities increase with local near-surface temperatures and humidity; for temperature, the simulated increase rate for the present-climate simulation is about 6.5% K**-1, which is consistent with observations and theoretical expectations. While extreme intensities are higher in the RCP8.5 simulation as higher temperatures are sampled, there is a decline at the highest temperatures due to circulation and relative humidity changes. Extending the analysis to the broader synoptic scale, it is found that circulation patterns, as diagnosed by MSLP or circulation type, play an increased role in the probability of extreme precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulation. Nevertheless for both CPM simulations, vertical instability is the principal driver for extreme precipitation.

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), Model description - Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, D. B.; Mercado, L. M.; Sitch, S.; Jones, C. D.; Gedney, N.; Best, M. J.; Pryor, M.; Rooney, G. G.; Essery, R. L. H.; Blyth, E.; Boucher, O.; Harding, R. J.; Cox, P. M.

2011-03-01

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is a process-based model that simulates the fluxes of carbon, water, energy and momentum between the land surface and the atmosphere. Past studies with JULES have demonstrated the important role of the land surface in the Earth System. Different versions of JULES have been employed to quantify the effects on the land carbon sink of separately changing atmospheric aerosols and tropospheric ozone, and the response of methane emissions from wetlands to climate change. There was a need to consolidate these and other advances into a single model code so as to be able to study interactions in a consistent manner. This paper describes the consolidation of these advances into the modelling of carbon fluxes and stores, in the vegetation and soil, in version 2.2 of JULES. Features include a multi-layer canopy scheme for light interception, including a sunfleck penetration scheme, a coupled scheme of leaf photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, representation of the effects of ozone on leaf physiology, and a description of methane emissions from wetlands. JULES represents the carbon allocation, growth and population dynamics of five plant functional types. The turnover of carbon from living plant tissues is fed into a 4-pool soil carbon model. The process-based descriptions of key ecological processes and trace gas fluxes in JULES mean that this community model is well-suited for use in carbon cycle, climate change and impacts studies, either in standalone mode or as the land component of a coupled Earth system model.

Time-lapse Seismic Refraction Monitoring of an Active Landslide in Lias Group Mudrocks, North Yorkshire, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uhlemann, S.; Whiteley, J.; Chambers, J. E.; Inauen, C.; Swift, R. T.

2017-12-01

Geophysical monitoring of the internal moisture content and processes of landslides is an increasingly common approach to the characterisation and assessment of the hydrogeological condition of rainfall-triggered landslides. Geoelectrical monitoring methods are sensitive to changes in the subsurface moisture conditions that cause the failure of unstable slopes, typically through the increase of pore water pressures and softening of materials within the landslide system. The application of seismic methods to the monitoring of landslides has not been as extensively applied as geoelectrical approaches, but the seismic method can determine elastic properties of landslide materials that can characterise and identify changes in the geomechanical condition of landslide systems that also lead to slope failure. We present the results of a seismic refraction monitoring campaign undertaken at the Hollin Hill Landslide Observatory in North Yorkshire, UK. This campaign has involved the repeat acquisition of surface acquired high resolution P- and S-wave seismic refraction data. The monitoring profile traverses a 142m long section from the crest to the toe of an active landslide comprising of mudstone and sandstone. Data were acquired at six to nine week intervals between October 2016 and October 2017. This repeat acquisition approach allowed for the imaging of seismically determined property changes of the landslide throughout the annual climatic cycle. Initial results showed that changes in the moisture dynamics of the landslide are reflected by changes in the seismic character of the inverted tomograms. Changes in the seismic properties are linked to the changes in the annual climatic cycle, particularly in relation to effective rainfall. The results indicate that the incorporation of seismic monitoring data into ongoing geoelectrical monitoring programmes can provide complementary geomechanical data to enhance our understanding of the internal condition of landslide systems. Future development of this integrated approach will allow for the imaging and monitoring of these systems at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales.

National Scale Prediction of Soil Carbon Sequestration under Scenarios of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izaurralde, R. C.; Thomson, A. M.; Potter, S. R.; Atwood, J. D.; Williams, J. R.

2006-12-01

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is gaining momentum as a tool to mitigate the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Texas A&M University, and USDA-NRCS used the EPIC model to develop national-scale predictions of soil carbon sequestration with adoption of no till (NT) under scenarios of climate change. In its current form, the EPIC model simulates soil C changes resulting from heterotrophic respiration and wind / water erosion. Representative modeling units were created to capture the climate, soil, and management variability at the 8-digit hydrologic unit (USGS classification) watershed scale. The soils selected represented at least 70% of the variability within each watershed. This resulted in 7,540 representative modeling units for 1,412 watersheds. Each watershed was assigned a major crop system: corn, soybean, spring wheat, winter wheat, cotton, hay, alfalfa, corn-soybean rotation or wheat-fallow rotation based on information from the National Resource Inventory. Each representative farm was simulated with conventional tillage and no tillage, and with and without irrigation. Climate change scenarios for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2045-2075) were selected from GCM model runs using the IPCC SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 from the UK Hadley Center (HadCM3) and US DOE PCM (PCM) models. Changes in mean and standard deviation of monthly temperature and precipitation were extracted from gridded files and applied to baseline climate (1960-1990) for each of the 1,412 modeled watersheds. Modeled crop yields were validated against historical USDA NASS county yields (1960-1990). The HadCM3 model predicted the most severe changes in climate parameters. Overall, there would be little difference between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Carbon offsets were calculated as the difference in soil C change between conventional and no till. Overall, C offsets during the first 30-y period (513 Tg C) are predicted to be 36% higher than those predicted during the second period. The climate projections of the PCM model had more positive impact on soil C sequestration than those predicted with the HadCM3 model.

How Will Climate Warming Affect Non-Native Pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus Populations in the U.K.?

PubMed

Zięba, Grzegorz; Fox, Michael G; Copp, Gordon H

2015-01-01

Of the non-native fishes introduced to the U.K., the pumpkinseed is one of six species predicted to benefit from the forecasted climate warming conditions. To demonstrate the potential response of adults and their progeny to a water temperature increase, investigations of parental pumpkinseed acclimatization, reproduction and YOY over-wintering were carried out in outdoor experimental ponds under ambient and elevated water temperature regimes. No temperature effects were observed on either adult survivorship and growth, and none of the assessed reproductive activity variables (total spawning time, spawning season length, number of spawning bouts) appeared to be responsible for the large differences observed in progeny number and biomass. However, it was demonstrated in a previous study [Zięba G. et al., 2010] that adults in the heated ponds began spawning earlier than those of the ambient ponds. Ambient ponds produced 2.8× more progeny than the heated ponds, but these progeny were significantly smaller, probably due to their late hatching date, and subsequently suffered very high mortality over the first winter. Pumpkinseed in the U.K. will clearly benefit from climate warming through earlier seasonal reproduction, resulting in larger progeny going into winter, and as a result, higher over-winter survivorship would be expected relative to that which occurs under the present climatic regime.

An Interdisciplinary Approach to Developing Renewable Energy Mixes at the Community Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gormally, Alexandra M.; Whyatt, James D.; Timmis, Roger J.; Pooley, Colin G.

2013-04-01

Renewable energy has risen on the global political agenda due to concerns over climate change and energy security. The European Union (EU) currently has a target of 20% renewable energy by the year 2020 and there is increasing focus on the ways in which these targets can be achieved. Here we focus on the UK context which could be considered to be lagging behind other EU countries in terms of targets and implementation. The UK has a lower overall target of 15% renewable energy by 2020 and in 2011 reached only 3.8 % (DUKES, 2012), one of the lowest progressions compared to other EU Member States (European Commission, 2012). The reticence of the UK to reach such targets could in part be due to their dependence on their current energy mix and a highly centralised electricity grid system, which does not lend itself easily to the adoption of renewable technologies. Additionally, increasing levels of demand and the need to raise energy awareness are key concerns in terms of achieving energy security in the UK. There is also growing concern from the public about increasing fuel and energy bills. One possible solution to some of these problems could be through the adoption of small-scale distributed renewable schemes implemented at the community-scale with local ownership or involvement, for example, through energy co-operatives. The notion of the energy co-operative is well understood elsewhere in Europe but unfamiliar to many UK residents due to its centralised approach to energy provision. There are many benefits associated with engaging in distributed renewable energy systems. In addition to financial benefits, participation may raise energy awareness and can lead to positive responses towards renewable technologies. Here we briefly explore how a mix of small-scale renewables, including wind, hydro-power and solar PV, have been implemented and managed by a small island community in the Scottish Hebrides to achieve over 90% of their electricity needs from renewable resources (Yadoo et al., 2011), before considering how similar mixes could be developed for rural on-grid communities in the mainland UK. We adopt an interdisciplinary approach that combines quantitative methods (spatial analysis and calculated energy outputs) with secondary data sources to assess resource potential at the regional scale (resolution 1km2) to highlight areas with significant local resources for a mix of renewable energy technologies (Gormally et al., 2012). We then focus at the community-level and use a combination of primary qualitative data (questionnaires and interviews on community acceptance to technologies) and primary quantitative data (primary resource data to assess how renewable mixes may vary throughout the year eg. hourly, daily, monthly) to produce a portfolio of energy scenarios. The scenarios assess different 'supply side' options, including different scales and mixes of technology, 'demand side' options including business as usual and reduced demand, and resilience to change, for example extreme events (droughts, floods). Here we present a methodology and outputs for a case study community in the UK but will highlight how the approach may be adopted for use in other communities across Europe. DUKES (2012) Digest of UK Energy Statistics. Accessed:07/01/2013 European Commission (2012) EUROPE 2020 TARGETS: climate change and energy. Accessed:07/01/2013 Gormally, A. M., Whyatt, J. D., Timmis, R. J. & Pooley, C. G. (2012) A regional-scale assessment of local renewable energy resources in Cumbria, UK. Energy Policy, 50, 283-293. Yadoo, A., Gormally, A. & Cruickshank, H. (2011) Low-carbon off-grid electrification for rural areas in the United Kingdom: Lessons from the developing world. Energy Policy, 39, 6400-6407.

Changes in the zonal mean flow, temperature, and planetary waves observed in the Northern Hemisphere mid-winter months during the last decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakushina, E. V.; Ermakova, T. S.; Pogoreltsev, A. I.

2018-06-01

Four sets of data: the UK Met Office, Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis data (JRA-55), and ERA-Interim data (ERA) have been used to estimate the climatic variability of the zonal mean flow, temperature, and Stationary Planetary Waves (SPW1, SPW2) from the troposphere up to the lower mesosphere levels. The composites of the meteorological fields during mid-winter month have been averaged over the first (1995-2005) and second (2006-2016) 11 years intervals and have been compared mainly paying attention to interannual and intraseasonal variability. Results show that changes in the mean fields and SPW2 are weaker and statistical significance of these changes is lower in comparison with the changes observed in the intraseasonal variability of these characteristics. All data sets demonstrate a decrease of SPW1 amplitude at the higher-middle latitudes in the lower stratosphere and opposite effect in the upper stratosphere. However, there is an increase of the intraseasonal variability for all meteorological parameters and this rise is statistically significant. The results obtained show that UK Met Office data demonstrate stronger changes and increase of the intraseasonal variability in comparison with other data sets.

Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

2010-12-01

Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In : Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. This work is performed in the framework of the SCAMPEI ANR (French research project).

Earthwatch and the HSBC Climate Partnership: Impacting the Bottom Line One Citizen Scientist at a Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusek, K. M.; Stover, D. B.; Phillips, R.; Jones, A.; Campbell, J.

2009-12-01

Earthwatch has engaged more than 90,000 citizen scientists in long-term research studies since its founding in 1971. One of its newer research and engagement programs is the HSBC Climate Partnership, a five-year global program on climate change to inspire action by individuals, businesses and governments (2007-2012). In this unique NGO-business partnership, Earthwatch has implemented five forest research-focused climate centers in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. At each center, a team of scientists—supported by HSBC employees and local citizen scientists—is gathering data to determine how temperate and tropical forests are affected by changes in climate and human activity. Results will establish baseline data to empower forest managers, conservationists and communities with the information they need to better manage forests in a changing climate. A critical component of the program is the engagement of 2,200 HSBC employees who spend two weeks out of the office at one of the regional climate centers. They work alongside leading scientists to perform forest research by day, and participate each evening in an interactive education program on the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of climate change—including how climate change impacts HSBC’s bottom line. Their charge is to develop a project they will implement back in their office that furthers HSBC’s commitment to sustainability. In addition to the corporate engagement model, Earthwatch has successfully engaged scores of local community stakeholders in the HSBC Climate Partnership, including teachers who report back to their classrooms “live from the field,” reporters and other business/NGO leaders in modified versions of the two-week field program. New models of citizen science engagement are currently under development, and Earthwatch will share “lessons learned” and stories documenting the effectiveness of the program design from a research, engagement and business perspective. By the end of the partnership nearly 100,000 citizen science research hours will have been invested in the program globally—leading to scientific publications, policy development and citizen engagement.

Coupled carbon-nitrogen land surface modelling for UK agricultural landscapes using JULES and JULES-ECOSSE-FUN (JEF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comyn-Platt, Edward; Clark, Douglas; Blyth, Eleanor

2016-04-01

The UK is required to provide accurate estimates of the UK greenhouse gas (GHG; CO2, CH4 and N2O) emissions for the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Process based land surface models (LSMs), such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), attempt to provide such estimates based on environmental (e.g. land use and soil type) and meteorological conditions. The standard release of JULES focusses on the water and carbon cycles, however, it has long been suggested that a coupled carbon-nitrogen scheme could enhance simulations. This is of particular importance when estimating agricultural emission inventories where the carbon cycle is effectively managed via the human application of nitrogen based fertilizers. JULES-ECOSSE-FUN (JEF) links JULES with the Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils - Sequestration and Emission (ECOSSE) model and the Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen (FUN) model as a means of simulating C:N coupling. This work presents simulations from the standard release of JULES and the most recent incarnation of the JEF coupled system at the point and field scale. Various configurations of JULES and JEF were calibrated and fine-tuned based on comparisons with observations from three UK field campaigns (Crichton, Harwood Forest and Brattleby) specifically chosen to represent the managed vegetation types that cover the UK. The campaigns included flux tower and chamber measurements of CO2, CH4 and N2O amongst other meteorological parameters and records of land management such as application of fertilizer and harvest date at the agricultural sites. Based on the results of these comparisons, JULES and/or JEF will be used to provide simulations on the regional and national scales in order to provide improved estimates of the total UK emission inventory.

Revisiting the generation and interpretation of climate models experiments for adaptation decision-making (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranger, N.; Millner, A.; Niehoerster, F.

2010-12-01

Traditionally, climate change risk assessments have taken a roughly four-stage linear ‘chain’ of moving from socioeconomic projections, to climate projections, to primary impacts and then finally onto economic and social impact assessment. Adaptation decisions are then made on the basis of these outputs. The escalation of uncertainty through this chain is well known; resulting in an ‘explosion’ of uncertainties in the final risk and adaptation assessment. The space of plausible future risk scenarios is growing ever wider with the application of new techniques which aim to explore uncertainty ever more deeply; such as those used in the recent ‘probabilistic’ UK Climate Projections 2009, and the stochastic integrated assessment models, for example PAGE2002. This explosion of uncertainty can make decision-making problematic, particularly given that the uncertainty information communicated can not be treated as strictly probabilistic and therefore, is not an easy fit with standard decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Additional problems can arise from the fact that the uncertainty estimated for different components of the ‘chain’ is rarely directly comparable or combinable. Here, we explore the challenges and limitations of using current projections for adaptation decision-making. We report the findings of a recent report completed for the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee on approaches to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today. To illustrate these approaches, we take a number of illustrative case studies, including a case of adaptation to hurricane risk on the US Gulf Coast. This is a particularly interesting case as it involves urgent adaptation of long-lived infrastructure but requires interpreting highly uncertain climate change science and modelling; i.e. projections of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. An approach we outline is reversing the linear chain of assessments to put the economics and decision-making first. Such an approach forces one to focus on the information of greatest value for the specific decision. We suggest that such an approach will help to accommodate the uncertainties in the chain and facilitate robust decision-making. Initial findings of these case studies will be presented with the aim of raising open questions and promoting discussion of the methodology. Finally, we reflect on the implications for the design of climate model experiments.

By land, sea and air (and space): Verifying UK methane emissions at a range of scales by integrating multiple measurement platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, M. L.; Lunt, M. F.; Ganesan, A.

2015-12-01

The Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) programme and Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) network aim to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at a resolution and accuracy higher than has previously been possible. The on going DECC tall tower network consists of three sites, and an eastern background site in Ireland. The GAUGE project includes instruments at two additional tall tower sites, a high-density measurement network over agricultural land in eastern England, a ferry that performs near-daily transects along the east coast of the UK, and a research aircraft that has been deployed on a campaign basis. Together with data collected by the GOSAT satellite, these data represent the GAUGE/DECC GHG measurement network that is being used to quantify UK GHG fluxes. As part of the wider GAUGE modelling efforts, we have derived methane flux estimates for the UK and northwest Europe using the UK Met Office NAME atmospheric transport model and a novel hierarchical Bayesian "trans-dimensional" inversion framework. We will show that our estimated fluxes for the UK as a whole are largely consistent between individual measurement platforms, albeit with very different uncertainties. Our novel inversion approach uses the data to objectively determine the extent to which we can further refine our national estimates to the level of large urban areas, major hotspots or larger sub-national regions. In this talk, we will outline some initial findings of the GAUGE project, tackling questions such as: At what spatial scale can we effectively derive greenhouse gas fluxes with a dense, multi-platform national network? Can we resolve individual metropolitan areas or major hotspots? What is relative impact of individual stations, platforms and network configurations on flux estimates for a country of the size of the UK? How can we effectively use multi-platform observations to cross-validate flux estimates and determine likely errors in model transport?

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Krinner, Gerhard

2017-06-01

The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric - the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years - that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

Reconstructing the emergence of a lethal infectious disease of wildlife supports a key role for spread through translocations by humans

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Andrew A.; Langton, Tom E. S.

2016-01-01

There have been few reconstructions of wildlife disease emergences, despite their extensive impact on biodiversity and human health. This is in large part attributable to the lack of structured and robust spatio-temporal datasets. We overcame logistical problems of obtaining suitable information by using data from a citizen science project and formulating spatio-temporal models of the spread of a wildlife pathogen (genus Ranavirus, infecting amphibians). We evaluated three main hypotheses for the rapid increase in disease reports in the UK: that outbreaks were being reported more frequently, that climate change had altered the interaction between hosts and a previously widespread pathogen, and that disease was emerging due to spatial spread of a novel pathogen. Our analysis characterized localized spread from nearby ponds, consistent with amphibian dispersal, but also revealed a highly significant trend for elevated rates of additional outbreaks in localities with higher human population density—pointing to human activities in also spreading the virus. Phylogenetic analyses of pathogen genomes support the inference of at least two independent introductions into the UK. Together these results point strongly to humans repeatedly translocating ranaviruses into the UK from other countries and between UK ponds, and therefore suggest potential control measures. PMID:27683363

Assessment of Land and Water Resource Implications of the UK 2050 Carbon Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konadu, D. D.; Sobral Mourao, Z.; Skelton, S.; Lupton, R.

2015-12-01

The UK Carbon Plan presents four low-carbon energy system pathways that achieves 80% GHG emission targets by 2050, stipulated in the UK Climate Change Act (2008). However, some of the energy technologies prescribed under these pathways are land and water intensive; but would the increase demand for land and water under these pathways lead to increased competition and stress on agricultural land, and water resources in the UK? To answer the above question, this study uses an integrated modelling approach, ForeseerTM, which characterises the interdependencies and evaluates the land and water requirement for the pathways, based on scenarios of power plant location, and the energy crop yield projections. The outcome is compared with sustainable limits of resource appropriation to assess potential stresses and competition for water and land by other sectors of the economy. The results show the Carbon Plan pathways have low overall impacts on UK water resources, but agricultural land use and food production could be significantly impacted. The impact on agricultural land use is shown to be mainly driven by projections for transport decarbonisation via indigenously sourced biofuels. On the other hand, the impact on water resources is mainly associated with increased inland thermal electricity generation capacity, which would compete with other industrial and public water demands. The results highlight the need for a critical appraisal of UK's long term low-carbon energy system planning, in particular bioenergy sourcing strategy, and the siting of thermal power generation in order to avert potential resource stress and competition.

Impact of a changing environment on the built heritage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossi, C. M.; Brimblecombe, P.; Bonazza, A.

2012-04-01

Stone monuments are degraded by both climate and pollution. Deterioration by pollution was especially intense from the 1700s and until the late 20th century the dominant impact of air pollution was the sulfation of surfaces. The parallel deposition of soot caused blackening and on some surfaces dark coloured crusts. The decrease of sulfur and soot from coal combustion during the last decades of the 20th century led to cleaner air in cities, a decrease of pollution-decay rates on building stones and a public desire for cleaner buildings. Although there were decreases in SO2, it was replaced by ozone, nitrogen oxides and particles richer in organic compounds, the result of an extensive use of automobiles. Deposited organic compounds can oxidise in modern urban environments in a yellowing process. The future may reveal variation in building colour from biological growth in a changing climate. In urban atmospheres with less sulfur, biological growth is more effective. A greater rate of delivery of nitrate to building surfaces that acts as "airborne fertiliser" favours colonisation. Depending on climate, there might be different processes (e.g. greening or reddening) and patterns of colouration. Climate is also a relevant factor in the weathering of monuments. Recent research suggests the concept of Heritage Climatology in the study of climate interactions with monuments, materials and sites. These parameters concentrate on aspects and combinations of meteorological variables that relate to material damage. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification can be a good approximation for some heritage risks. For instance, the number of salt transitions shows distinct seasonality which can be related to Köppen-Geiger climate types and their change during the 21th century. The study of changing pollution and climate impacts on the built heritage needs the output of pollution emissions and climate change models, which are prone to uncertainties. The use of multiple climate models or ENSEMBLES may improve the accuracy and reliability of predictions. This approach has been used to predict salt damage. However, more work is needed on the uncertainty in predictions and the way this affects the management of stone heritage. There is public availability of climate and pollution data, but frequently these need to be unified and made user-friendly for cultural heritage researchers in many countries, e.g. the UKCP09 user interface is a good example of friendly-availability for probabilistic projections and downscaled climate change data, but available data are limited to the UK. The utilisation of these improved techniques can contribute to better strategies for managing buildings.

Managing critical materials with a technology-specific stocks and flows model.

PubMed

Busch, Jonathan; Steinberger, Julia K; Dawson, David A; Purnell, Phil; Roelich, Katy

2014-01-21

The transition to low carbon infrastructure systems required to meet climate change mitigation targets will involve an unprecedented roll-out of technologies reliant upon materials not previously widespread in infrastructure. Many of these materials (including lithium and rare earth metals) are at risk of supply disruption. To ensure the future sustainability and resilience of infrastructure, circular economy policies must be crafted to manage these critical materials effectively. These policies can only be effective if supported by an understanding of the material demands of infrastructure transition and what reuse and recycling options are possible given the future availability of end-of-life stocks. This Article presents a novel, enhanced stocks and flows model for the dynamic assessment of material demands resulting from infrastructure transitions. By including a hierarchical, nested description of infrastructure technologies, their components, and the materials they contain, this model can be used to quantify the effectiveness of recovery at both a technology remanufacturing and reuse level and a material recycling level. The model's potential is demonstrated on a case study on the roll-out of electric vehicles in the UK forecast by UK Department of Energy and Climate Change scenarios. The results suggest policy action should be taken to ensure Li-ion battery recycling infrastructure is in place by 2025 and NdFeB motor magnets should be designed for reuse. This could result in a reduction in primary demand for lithium of 40% and neodymium of 70%.

Managing Critical Materials with a Technology-Specific Stocks and Flows Model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The transition to low carbon infrastructure systems required to meet climate change mitigation targets will involve an unprecedented roll-out of technologies reliant upon materials not previously widespread in infrastructure. Many of these materials (including lithium and rare earth metals) are at risk of supply disruption. To ensure the future sustainability and resilience of infrastructure, circular economy policies must be crafted to manage these critical materials effectively. These policies can only be effective if supported by an understanding of the material demands of infrastructure transition and what reuse and recycling options are possible given the future availability of end-of-life stocks. This Article presents a novel, enhanced stocks and flows model for the dynamic assessment of material demands resulting from infrastructure transitions. By including a hierarchical, nested description of infrastructure technologies, their components, and the materials they contain, this model can be used to quantify the effectiveness of recovery at both a technology remanufacturing and reuse level and a material recycling level. The model’s potential is demonstrated on a case study on the roll-out of electric vehicles in the UK forecast by UK Department of Energy and Climate Change scenarios. The results suggest policy action should be taken to ensure Li-ion battery recycling infrastructure is in place by 2025 and NdFeB motor magnets should be designed for reuse. This could result in a reduction in primary demand for lithium of 40% and neodymium of 70%. PMID:24328245

Assessing the usability and potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in land management decisions in the southwest UK: challenges and reflections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Marta Bruno

2017-06-01

The potential usability and benefits of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to help inform decision-making processes is widely accepted. However, the practical use of SCF in Europe is still fairly recent and, as such, current knowledge of the added benefits of SCF in supporting and improving decision-making is limited. This study is based on research conducted to co-develop a semi-operational climate service prototype - the Land Management Tool (LMTool) - with farmers in South West regions of the UK. The value of the SCF provided to the farmers was examined to help us understand the usability and (potential) value of these forecasts in farmers' decisions during the winter months of 2015/2016. The findings from the study point to the need to explore and develop (new) research methods capable of addressing the complexity of the decision-making processes, such as those in the farming sector. The farmers who used the SCF perceived it as useful and usable as it helped them change and adapt their decision-making and thus, avoid unnecessary costs. However, to fully grasp the potential value of using SCF, farmers emphasised the need for the provision of SCF for longer periods of time to allow them to build trust and confidence in the information provided. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about how to assess the use and value of SCF in decision-making processes in a meaningful and effective way.

Impacts of Climate Change on Management of the Colorado River Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, N. S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2002-05-01

The Colorado River system provides water supply to a large area of the interior west. It drains a mostly arid area, with naturalized flow (effects of reservoirs and diversions removed) averaging only 40 mm/yr over the 630,000 km2 drainage area at the mouth of the river. Total reservoir storage (mostly behind Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams) is equivalent to over four times the mean flow of the river. Runoff is heavily dominated by high elevation source areas in the Rocky Mountain headwaters, and the seasonal runoff pattern throughout the Colorado basin is strongly dominated by winter snow accumulation and spring melt. Because of the arid nature of the basin and the low runoff per unit area, performance of the reservoir system is potentially susceptible to changes in streamflow that would result from global warming, although those manifestations are somewhat different than elsewhere in the west where reservoir storage is relatively much smaller. We evaluate, using the macroscale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, possible changes in streamflow over the next century using three 100-year ensemble climate simulations of the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model corresponding to business-as-usual (BAU) future greenhouse gas emissions. Single ensemble simulations of the U.K. Hadley Center, and the Max Planck Institute, are considered as well. For most of the climate scenarios, the peak runoff shifts about one month earlier relative to the recent past. However, unlike reservoir systems elsewhere in the west, the effect of these timing shifts is largely mitigated by the size of the reservoir system, and changes in reservoir system reliability (for agricultural water supply and hydropower production) are dominated by streamflow volume shifts, which vary considerably across the climate scenarios.

Evolution of the Toarcian (Early Jurassic) carbon-cycle and global climatic controls on local sedimentary processes (Cardigan Bay Basin, UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Weimu; Ruhl, Micha; Jenkyns, Hugh C.; Leng, Melanie J.; Huggett, Jennifer M.; Minisini, Daniel; Ullmann, Clemens V.; Riding, James B.; Weijers, Johan W. H.; Storm, Marisa S.; Percival, Lawrence M. E.; Tosca, Nicholas J.; Idiz, Erdem F.; Tegelaar, Erik W.; Hesselbo, Stephen P.

2018-02-01

The late Early Jurassic Toarcian Stage represents the warmest interval of the Jurassic Period, with an abrupt rise in global temperatures of up to ∼7 °C in mid-latitudes at the onset of the early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE; ∼183 Ma). The T-OAE, which has been extensively studied in marine and continental successions from both hemispheres, was marked by the widespread expansion of anoxic and euxinic waters, geographically extensive deposition of organic-rich black shales, and climatic and environmental perturbations. Climatic and environmental processes following the T-OAE are, however, poorly known, largely due to a lack of study of stratigraphically well-constrained and complete sedimentary archives. Here, we present integrated geochemical and physical proxy data (high-resolution carbon-isotope data (δ13 C), bulk and molecular organic geochemistry, inorganic petrology, mineral characterisation, and major- and trace-element concentrations) from the biostratigraphically complete and expanded entire Toarcian succession in the Llanbedr (Mochras Farm) Borehole, Cardigan Bay Basin, Wales, UK. With these data, we (1) construct the first high-resolution biostratigraphically calibrated chemostratigraphic reference record for nearly the complete Toarcian Stage, (2) establish palaeoceanographic and depositional conditions in the Cardigan Bay Basin, (3) show that the T-OAE in the hemipelagic Cardigan Bay Basin was marked by the occurrence of gravity-flow deposits that were likely linked to globally enhanced sediment fluxes to continental margins and deeper marine (shelf) basins, and (4) explore how early Toarcian (tenuicostatum and serpentinum zones) siderite formation in the Cardigan Bay Basin may have been linked to low global oceanic sulphate concentrations and elevated supply of iron (Fe) from the hinterland, in response to climatically induced changes in hydrological cycling, global weathering rates and large-scale sulphide and evaporite deposition.

Co-producing resilient solutions to climate change: Bridging the gap between science and decision-making around nexus issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howarth, C.

2016-12-01

The nexus represents a multi-dimensional means of scientific enquiry encapsulating the complex and non-linear interactions between water, energy, food, environment with the climate, and wider implications for society. These resources are fundamental for human life but are negatively affected by climate change. Methods of analysis, which are currently used, were not built to represent complex systems and are insufficiently equipped to understand positive and negative externalities generated by interactions among different stakeholders involved in the nexus. In addition misalignment between the science that scientists produce and the evidence decision-makers need leads to a range of complexities within the science-policy interface. Adopting a bottom-up, participative approach, the results of five themed workshops organized in the UK (focusing on: shocks and hazards, infrastructure, local economy, governance and governments, finance and insurance) featuring 80 stakeholders from academia, government and industry allow us to map perceptions of opportunities and challenges of better informing decision making on climate change when there is a strong disconnect between the evidence scientists provide and the actions decision makers take. The research identified key areas where gaps could be bridged between science and action and explores how a knowledge co-production approach can help identify opportunities for building a more effective and legitimate policy agenda to face climate risks. Concerns, barriers and opportunities to better inform decision making centred on four themes: communication and collaboration, decision making processes, social and cultural dimensions, and the nature of responses to nexus shocks. In so doing, this analysis provides an assessment of good practice on climate decision-making and highlights opportunities for improvement to bridge gaps in the science-policy interface

Prediction of River Flooding using Geospatial and Statistical Analysis in New York, USA and Kent, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsellos, A.; Tsakiri, K.; Smith, M.

2014-12-01

Flooding in the rivers normally occurs during periods of excessive precipitation (i.e. New York, USA; Kent, UK) or ice jams during the winter period (New York, USA). For the prediction and mapping of the river flooding, it is necessary to evaluate the spatial distribution of the water (volume) in the river as well as study the interaction between the climatic and hydrological variables. Two study areas have been analyzed; one in Mohawk River, New York and one in Kent, United Kingdom (UK). A high resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the Mohawk River, New York has been used for a GIS flooding simulation to determine the maximum elevation value of the water that cannot continue to be restricted in the trunk stream and as a result flooding in the river may be triggered. The Flooding Trigger Level (FTL) is determined by incremental volumetric and surface calculations from Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) with the use of GIS software and LiDAR data. The prediction of flooding in the river can also be improved by the statistical analysis of the hydrological and climatic variables in Mohawk River and Kent, UK. A methodology of time series analysis has been applied for the decomposition of the hydrological (water flow and ground water data) and climatic data in both locations. The KZ (Kolmogorov-Zurbenko) filter is used for the decomposition of the time series into the long, seasonal, and short term components. The explanation of the long term component of the water flow using the climatic variables has been improved up to 90% for both locations. Similar analysis has been performed for the prediction of the seasonal and short term component. This methodology can be applied for flooding of the rivers in multiple sites.

Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment.

PubMed

Ritson, Jonathan P; Bell, Michael; Graham, Nigel J D; Templeton, Michael R; Brazier, Richard E; Verhoef, Anne; Freeman, Chris; Clark, Joanna M

2014-12-15

Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g(-1)) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g(-1)) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Climate Change on high and low flows across Great Britain: a temporal analysis and uncertainty assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beevers, Lindsay; Collet, Lila

2017-04-01

Over the past decade there have been significant challenges to water management posed by both floods and droughts. In the UK, since 2000 flooding has caused over £5Bn worth of damage, and direct costs from the recent drought (2011-12) are estimated to be between £70-165M, arising from impacts on public and industrial water supply. Projections of future climate change suggest an increase in temperature and precipitation trends which may exacerbate the frequency and severity of such hazards, but there is significant uncertainty associated with these projections. It thus becomes urgent to assess the possible impact of these changes on extreme flows and evaluate the uncertainties related to these projections, particularly changes in the seasonality of such hazards. This paper aims to assess the changes in seasonality of peak and low flows across Great Britain as a result of climate change. It is based on the Future Flow database; an 11-member ensemble of transient river flow projections from January 1951 to December 2098. We analyse the daily river flow over the baseline (1961-1990) and the 2080s (2069-2098) for 281 gauging stations. For each ensemble member, annual maxima (AMAX) and minima (AMIN) are extracted for both time periods for each gauging station. The month of the year the AMAX and AMIN occur respectively are recorded for each of the 30 years in the past and the future time periods. The uncertainty of the AMAX and AMIN occurrence temporally (monthly) is assessed across the 11 ensemble members, as well as the changes to this temporal signal between the baseline and the 2080s. Ultimately, this work gives a national picture (spatially) of high and low flows occurrence temporally and allows the assessment of possible changes in hydrological dynamics as a result of climate change in a statistical framework. Results will quantify the uncertainty related to the Climate Model parameters which are cascaded into the modelling chain. This study highlights the issues facing hydrological cycle management, due to changing spatial and temporal trends in order to anticipate and adapt to hydro-hazard changes in an uncertain context.

Optical radiation emissions from compact fluorescent lamps.

PubMed

Khazova, M; O'Hagan, J B

2008-01-01

There is a drive to energy efficiency to mitigate climate change. To meet this challenge, the UK Government has proposed phasing out incandescent lamps by the end of 2011 and replacing them with energy efficient fluorescent lighting, including compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) with integrated ballasts. This paper presents a summary of an assessment conducted by the Health Protection Agency in March 2008 to evaluate the optical radiation emissions of CFLs currently available in the UK consumer market. The study concluded that the UV emissions from a significant percentage of the tested CFLs with single envelopes may result in foreseeable overexposure of the skin when these lamps are used in desk or task lighting applications. The optical output of all tested CFLs, in addition to high-frequency modulation, had a 100-Hz envelope with modulation in excess of 15%. This degree of modulation may be linked to a number of adverse effects.

The U.K.'s "Dash for Gas".

PubMed

Watterson, Andrew; Dinan, William

2017-05-01

The evidence on public health regulation of the unconventional gas extraction (fracking) industry was examined using a rapid evidence assessment of fifteen case studies from multiple countries. They included scientific and academic papers, professional reports, government agency reports, industry and industry-funded reports, and a nongovernment organization report. Each case study review was structured to address strengths and weaknesses of the publication in relation to our research questions. Some case studies emphasized inherent industry short-, medium-, and long-term dangers to public health directly and through global climate change impacts. Other case studies argued that fracking could be conducted safely assuming industry best practice, "robust" regulation, and mitigation, but the evidence base for such statements proved generally sparse. U.K. regulators' own assessments on fracking regulation are also evaluated. The existing evidence points to the necessity of a precautionary approach to protect public health from unconventional gas extraction development.

How Will Climate Warming Affect Non-Native Pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus Populations in the U.K.?

PubMed Central

Zięba, Grzegorz; Fox, Michael G.; Copp, Gordon H.

2015-01-01

Of the non-native fishes introduced to the U.K., the pumpkinseed is one of six species predicted to benefit from the forecasted climate warming conditions. To demonstrate the potential response of adults and their progeny to a water temperature increase, investigations of parental pumpkinseed acclimatization, reproduction and YOY over-wintering were carried out in outdoor experimental ponds under ambient and elevated water temperature regimes. No temperature effects were observed on either adult survivorship and growth, and none of the assessed reproductive activity variables (total spawning time, spawning season length, number of spawning bouts) appeared to be responsible for the large differences observed in progeny number and biomass. However, it was demonstrated in a previous study [Zięba G. et al., 2010] that adults in the heated ponds began spawning earlier than those of the ambient ponds. Ambient ponds produced 2.8× more progeny than the heated ponds, but these progeny were significantly smaller, probably due to their late hatching date, and subsequently suffered very high mortality over the first winter. Pumpkinseed in the U.K. will clearly benefit from climate warming through earlier seasonal reproduction, resulting in larger progeny going into winter, and as a result, higher over-winter survivorship would be expected relative to that which occurs under the present climatic regime. PMID:26302021

Changing Amazon biomass and the role of atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate, and land use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Galbraith, David; Zhang, Ke; Coe, Michael T.; Costa, Marcos H.; Moorcroft, Paul

2016-01-01

The Amazon tropical evergreen forest is an important component of the global carbon budget. Its forest floristic composition, structure, and function are sensitive to changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use. In this study biomass and productivity simulated by three dynamic global vegetation models (Integrated Biosphere Simulator, Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model, and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) for the period 1970-2008 are compared with observations from forest plots (Rede Amazónica de Inventarios Forestales). The spatial variability in biomass and productivity simulated by the DGVMs is low in comparison to the field observations in part because of poor representation of the heterogeneity of vegetation traits within the models. We find that over the last four decades the CO2 fertilization effect dominates a long-term increase in simulated biomass in undisturbed Amazonian forests, while land use change in the south and southeastern Amazonia dominates a reduction in Amazon aboveground biomass, of similar magnitude to the CO2 biomass gain. Climate extremes exert a strong effect on the observed biomass on short time scales, but the models are incapable of reproducing the observed impacts of extreme drought on forest biomass. We find that future improvements in the accuracy of DGVM predictions will require improved representation of four key elements: (1) spatially variable plant traits, (2) soil and nutrients mediated processes, (3) extreme event mortality, and (4) sensitivity to climatic variability. Finally, continued long-term observations and ecosystem-scale experiments (e.g. Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiments) are essential for a better understanding of the changing dynamics of tropical forests.

Threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walton, P.

2013-12-01

Whilst the scientific case for current climate change is compelling, the consequences of climate change have largely failed to permeate through to individuals. This lack of public awareness of the science and the potential impacts could be considered a key obstacle to action. The possible reasons for such limited success centre on the issue that climate change is a complex subject, and that a wide ranging academic, political and social research literature on the science and wider implications of climate change has failed to communicate the key issues in an accessible way. These failures to adequately communicate both the science and the social science of climate change at a number of levels results in ';communication gaps' that act as fundamental barriers to both understanding and engagement with the issue. Meyer and Land (2003) suggest that learners can find certain ideas and concepts within a discipline difficult to understand and these act as a barrier to deeper understanding of a subject. To move beyond these threshold concepts, they suggest that the expert needs to support the learner through a range of learning experiences that allows the development of learning strategies particular to the individual. Meyer and Land's research into these threshold concepts has been situated within Economics, but has been suggested to be more widely applicable though there has been no attempt to either define or evaluate threshold concepts to climate change science. By identifying whether common threshold concepts exist specifically in climate science for cohorts of either formal or informal learners, scientists will be better able to support the public in understanding these concepts by changing how the knowledge is communicated to help overcome these barriers to learning. This paper reports on the findings of a study that examined the role of threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science in a UK University and considers its implications for wider scientific engagement with the public to develop climate literacy. The analysis of 3 successive cohorts of students' journals who followed the same degree module identified that threshold concepts do exist within the field, such as those related to: role of ocean circulation, use of proxy indicators, forcing factors and feedback mechanisms. Once identified, the study looked at possible strategies to overcome these barriers to support student climate literacy. It concluded that the use of threshold concepts could be problematic when trying to improve climate literacy, as each individual has their own concepts they find ';troublesome' that do not necessarily relate to others. For scientists this presents the difficulty of how to develop a strategy that supports the individual that is cost and time effective. However, the study identifies that eLearning can be used effectively to help people understand troublesome knowledge.

European Synergies for Soil-Related Training Provisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnoult, Matthieu; Reynders, Suzanne; Dittmann, Marie; Lukac, Martin

2017-04-01

The University of Reading (UK) has created an original massive online open course (MOOC) the concepts and practices of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA), a new approach to agriculture based on three principles: mitigation of climate change, adaptation to climate change, stable or increased productivity, and sustainable food security. Through 2 case studies (dairy farming and wine production) this MOOC is an opportunity to highlight the importance of soil conditions for farmers (e.g., organic matter content, erosion, leaching), an issue which had been overlooked but is now seen as an essential part of integrated farm management or techniques such as no-till farming. Furthermore, this 3-week course launching in January 2017 will be translated in several European languages in order to foster international interest in CSA from students across Europe, but also to create collaborative synergies with research partners. To that effect, collaborative work is under way between the University of Reading, INRA, and Agreenium to develop a soil-oriented MOOC, around the 4‰ Initiative to be launched by France in 2017/18. This session will present the existing MOOC material developed at Reading in the context of British and French farming, the current issues facing farmers with respect to soil, and how these will be addressed in the forthcoming MOOC to be developed in partnership with INRA and Agreenium. The use of online training provision to elicit interest in climate change in general and soil topics in particular will also be outlined.

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Claire L.; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.; Burton, Aidan; Dawson, Richard J.; Glenis, Vassilis; Manning, Lucy J.; Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Kilsby, Chris G.

2016-05-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth, and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local-scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames Basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth, the median number of drought order occurrences may increase 5-fold by the 2050s. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. A decrease in per capita demand of 3.75 % reduces the median frequency of drought order measures by 50 % by the 2020s. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence, a portfolio of measures is required.

Detecting future performance of the reservoirs under the changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biglarbeigi, Pardis; Strong, W. Alan; Griffiths, Philip

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle resulting in changes in rainfall patterns, seasonal variations as well as flooding and drought. Also, changes in the hydrologic regime of the rivers are another anticipated effects of climate change. This climatic variability put pressure on renewable water resources with its increase in some regions, decrease in the others and high uncertainties in every region. As a result of the pressure of climate change on water resources, the operation of reservoir and dams is expected to experience uncertainties in different aspects such as supplying water and controlling the flood. In this study, we model two hypothetical dams on different streamflows, based on the water needs of 20'000 and 100'000 people. UK, as a country that suffered from several flooding events during the past years, and Iran, as a country with severe water scarcity, are chosen as the nations under study. For this study, the hypothetical modeled dam is located on three streamflows in each nation. Then, the mass-balance model of the system is optimised over 25 years of historical data, considering two objectives: 1) Minimisation of the water deficit in different sectors (agricultural, domestic and industrial) and 2) Minimisation of the flooding around the reservoir catchment. The optimised policies are simulated into the model again under different climate change and demographic scenarios to obtain the Resilience, Reliability and Vulnerability (RRV indices) of the system. In order to gain this goal, two different set of scenarios are introduced; the first set is the scenarios introduced in IPCC assessment in its Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The second set is introduced as a Monte Carlo simulation of demographic and temperature scenarios. Demographic scenarios are defined as the UN's estimation of population based on age, sex, fertility, mortality and migration rates with a 2-year frequency. Temperature scenarios, on the other hand, are defined based on the target of COP21, Paris which proposed to keep "the global temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius, while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees", as well as temperatures higher than this limit to better address the effects of climate change. Numerical results of the proposed model are anticipated to represent the performance of the system by the year 2100 through RRV indices. RRV metrices are effective means of quantitative estimation of climate change impacts on reservoir system in order to obtain the potential policies to solve the future water supply issues.

Applying Agnotology-Based Learning in a Mooc to Counter Climate Misconceptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, J.

2014-12-01

A key challenge facing educators and climate communicators is the wide array of misconceptions about climate science, often fostered by misinformation. A number of myths interfere with a sound understanding of the science, with key myths moderating public support for mitigation policies. An effective way to reduce the influence of misinformation is through agnotology-based learning. Agnotology is the study of ignorance while agnotology-based learning teaches students through the direct addressing of myths and misconceptions. This approach of "refutational teaching" is being applied in a MOOC (Massive Online Open Course) currently being developed by Skeptical Science and The University of Queensland, in collaboration with universities in Canada, USA and the UK. The MOOC will examine the science of climate change denial. Why is the issue so controversial given there is an overwhelming consensus on human-caused global warming? How do climate myths distort the science? What can scientists and laypeople do in response to misinformation? The MOOC will be released on the EdX platform in early 2015. I will summarise the research underpinning agnotology-based learning and present the approach taken in the MOOC to be released in early 2015

Decline in atmospheric sulphur deposition and changes in climate are the major drivers of long-term change in grassland plant communities in Scotland.

PubMed

Mitchell, Ruth J; Hewison, Richard L; Fielding, Debbie A; Fisher, Julia M; Gilbert, Diana J; Hurskainen, Sonja; Pakeman, Robin J; Potts, Jacqueline M; Riach, David

2018-04-01

The predicted long lag time between a decrease in atmospheric deposition and a measured response in vegetation has generally excluded the investigation of vegetation recovery from the impacts of atmospheric deposition. However, policy-makers require such evidence to assess whether policy decisions to reduce emissions will have a positive impact on habitats. Here we have shown that 40 years after the peak of SO x emissions, decreases in SO x are related to significant changes in species richness and cover in Scottish Calcareous, Mestrophic, Nardus and Wet grasslands. Using a survey of vegetation plots across Scotland, first carried out between 1958 and 1987 and resurveyed between 2012 and 2014, we test whether temporal changes in species richness and cover of bryophytes, Cyperaceae, forbs, Poaceae, and Juncaceae can be explained by changes in sulphur and nitrogen deposition, climate and/or grazing intensity, and whether these patterns differ between six grassland habitats: Acid, Calcareous, Lolium, Nardus, Mesotrophic and Wet grasslands. The results indicate that Calcareous, Mesotrophic, Nardus and Wet grasslands in Scotland are starting to recover from the UK peak of SO x deposition in the 1970's. A decline in the cover of grasses, an increase in cover of bryophytes and forbs and the development of a more diverse sward (a reversal of the impacts of increased SO x ) was related to decreased SO x deposition. However there was no evidence of a recovery from SO x deposition in the Acid or Lolium grasslands. Despite a decline in NO x deposition between the two surveys we found no evidence of a reversal of the impacts of increased N deposition. The climate also changed significantly between the two surveys, becoming warmer and wetter. This change in climate was related to significant changes in both the cover and species richness of bryophytes, Cyperaceae, forbs, Poaceae and Juncaceae but the changes differed between habitats. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change: seeking balance in media reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Fowler, David

2008-06-01

Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailed analysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers. They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers 'diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change'. That is, portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC 2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? But should we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? We believe the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates on climate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes in behaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions require a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority of readers receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level of public understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change (Schellnhuber et al 2006 and references therein). Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) identify a gulf in presentation of the scientific facts and their interpretation on the subject of 'global warming' in tabloid newspapers, when compared to the scientific consensus. What is really sobering is the huge circulation of these papers (see table 1 of Boykoff and Mansfield—many millions per day); even the most important 'landmark' research papers very rarely achieve five hundred plus citations. We find it heartening, therefore, that the area of climate change research does at least have the umbrella of the IPCC. This provides an additional channel through which current research associated with the effects of burning fossil fuels can be presented, and in our personal experience at least, we have found the non-tabloid UK newspapers to report accurately any IPCC statements. As this perspective article is being written, the UK (and worldwide) is facing almost unprecedented increases in the cost of petrol and diesel, and with the transport sector lobbying hard for tax incentives/rebates to reduce fuel costs. In the middle of this, some government ministers are suggesting that from the climate change angle, lower dependence on fossil fuels (forced on the population by such higher prices) might be a good thing. But their voices are drowned by other ministers saying that such an approach is deeply unpopular with the electorate—to what extent, therefore, is the tabloid press responsible for the lack of urgency related to potential future damage to the planet? How else are people informed about the climate change debate? Aside from TV and radio, popular science books are usually a good source of information. However a viewing of the environmental sciences department in any bookshop at present will reveal how remarkably polarized the climate change debate is becoming. Some books have very alarming titles; for instance Pearce (2007) is titled 'The Last Generation: How Nature will take her Revenge for Climate Change'. Meanwhile other books are appearing with titles suggesting that the entire issue is given far too much emphasis, is used as a means for politicians to keep society fearful (and presumably, therefore, more controllable), or present a view that the IPCC system is scientifically deeply flawed. Examples of these include Spencer (2008) titled 'Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor', Booker and North (2007) titled 'Scared to Death: From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing us the Earth' and two books by Michaels—Michaels (2004) 'Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media' and Michaels (2005) 'Shattered Consensus: The True state of Global Warming'. Both polarized views could be argued as detrimental to addressing possible dangerous climate change. The first argument (i.e. 'we are doomed') gives the impression that climate change is so serious, and possibly unstoppable in the immediate future, that this could lead readers to decide there is nothing that can be achieved on an individual basis—and yet any measure to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse concentrations will require changed behaviour regarding fossil fuel usage at the individual level. On the other hand, simply to ignore the effects of increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate system could lead the planet in to a highly undesirable 'dangerous' state, and one that is potentially difficult or impossible to reverse in reasonable timescales. Fortunately there are some books on the subject of climate change that do present the science without bias, such as 'Global Warming' by Houghton (2004). One new book of particular interest is that of Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor, whose recent publication on climate change (Lawson 2008) is titled 'An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming'. Lawson (2008) contains a range of very interesting and interlinked strands regarding the climate change debate. As with many books discussing technical matters, it is always of interest to first check the citations, and here it is comprehensive, up-to-date and certainly does not initially appear to be selective (this is also true of the two books by Michaels). This therefore creates what seems like a paradox. Given that so many of the key papers cited by Lawson (2008) form the backbone of current understanding of climate change, and many researchers quote these as reasons for concern regarding global warming, how is it that this book instead, concludes (see the dust cover) '… the conventional wisdom on the subject is suspect on a number of grounds; … global warming is not the devastating threat to the planet it is widely alleged to be'? What is the overall feeling after reading some of Lawson (2008)? Well first and foremost, we believe that although the use of literature is impressive, there appears to be a deliberate search for the remaining scientific uncertainty (i.e. issues freely acknowledged by climate change scientists as requiring refinement, but used in this book as a reason to doubt the entire scientific debate about global warming). On this basis, it is tempting therefore to just ignore this contribution to the debate, but a more positive approach is to re-address these uncertainties, and in the process generate more concise scientific understanding and presentation. Top of this list would be Lawson's key argument that global warming has stalled between the year 2001 and 2007—'there has been no further global warming since the turn of the century … which has occurred at a time when global CO2 emissions have been rising faster than ever'. Lawson then cites, correctly, Smith et al (2007) but who in fact point out that this is almost certainly due to internal variability and we may expect more warming from year 2009 onwards. Lawson concludes that such a 'resumption of warming' may or may not occur. In our view the climate modelling community should work hard to revisit and extend the work of Smith et al (2007), possibly applying their technique to multiple climate models. In parallel there is a desperate need for better explanation by researchers that, even against a background warming trend, natural variability will mean that on a year-to-year basis, warming will not necessarily be monotonic. Some of Lawson's other arguments can be more readily rebutted. Two issues he presents are that trends in global temperature could be a function of varying sunspot activity, and that the global warming measured during the second half of the 20th Century could be a consequence of urbanization around measurement stations (the 'heat island' effect). Sloan and Wolfendale (2008) and Parker (2006) provide highly detailed and convincing reasons why, respectively, these two arguments cannot explain the warming trend seen in measurements during the last fifty years—these two papers require more extensive circulation. Lawson attacks the IPCC panel as changing from a 'fact-finding and analytical exercise' in to 'something more like a politically correct alarmist pressure group'. This is particularly unfortunate and is not consistent with the facts. For example Stott et al (2000), using statistical 'detection and attribution' analyses, utilized the spatial patterns observable in the temperature record to tease apart natural oscillations from those caused by human adjustments to atmospheric composition. This underpinned in part the statement in the 3rd IPCC Assessment (IPCC 2001) that 'There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'. It should be noted that all such analyses require disproving of the null hypthoesis (i.e. humans have no influence), and to a very high level of statistical confidence. In other words, the IPCC report depends heavily on research scientists whose starting point is actually that higher levels of greenhouse gas concentrations (most notably CO2) have had no effect on surface temperatures, unless there is significant evidence to the contrary. At some points, Lawson cannot be taken seriously. He points out (correctly) that CO2 is one of the greenhouse gases without which life would be unable to survive. However, this is then used to state that 'to describe the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as pollution is as absurd as it would be to describe the clouds as pollution'. In fact most pollutants of the atmosphere are emitted from anthropogenic activity and through natural processes. The gases become pollutants by exceeding thresholds above which damage occurs—these basic principles are widely accepted in the scientific community. Hence there is still the requirement to explain in very general terms the role of near-stable (at century timescales) pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations in sustaining life (along with the other greenhouse gas concentrations), but how much higher values of CO2 could cause dangerous perturbation to the climate system. Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) provide a valuable insight in to how climate change is presented in the media. As the general consensus among climate research scientists is that to avoid 'dangerous' climate change there is a requirement to make very large reductions in emissions and soon, then this will be politically difficult to achieve against such a backdrop of such press reporting denying the IPCC message. We have also used this perspective article to consider how the debate over climate change (as induced through anthropogenic emissions) is presented through popular science books. In some ways this is equally worrying—how is it that such polarized views can be presented in books frequently citing the same research papers? With significant public funds placed in climate change research, it might be expected that the public deserve more definitive answers. So the main question here is whether (a) there remains massive uncertainty in how raised atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will manifest themselves through changes to future climates, or, (b) is there selective interpretation of key research papers (and indeed the IPCC report). If the answer is (b)—and that is consistent with the evidence—then each scientific issue raised by the sceptics should be addressed. There are important steps in this direction. For example the Royal Society has on its web site specific answers to several of the commonly used misleading arguments. See http://royalsociety.org/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630 a web page entitled 'Facts and fictions about climate change'. As governments struggle to balance issues of economic development, the ubiquitous use of fossil fuels, and the need for very large reductions in emissions to ultimately stabilise the climate at safe levels, then it is essential that those involved in climate change research keep a careful note of the portrayal of their research in the media. Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) (and citations therein) make an important contribution to this process. Ultimately, of course, (for predictions corresponding to different prescribed emissions scenarios) we are working with an issue embedded in fundamental science. If newspapers and books take a sceptical angle, and through this force further reductions in uncertainty bounds surrounding available scientific understanding, then such reporting will have played a useful role, even if ultimately shown to be incorrect. But such refinement has to happen quickly—if a global consensus emerges, unchallenged, that climate change issues are being vastly overplayed (or worse are almost some form of hoax) then we could be 'sleep walking' towards eventual climatic disaster as a consequence of a 'business as usual' attitude to emissions. We believe the current debate to be vital. But ultimately, society requires a balanced presentation of the facts. It is unreasonable to expect the tabloid media to avoid oversimplification and sensational comments, but it is reasonable and necessary in support of the political process to present a balanced view, and to avoid systematic misrepresentation of the science in either direction. We believe the IPCC goes a long way towards achieving this—but there is still much to do. References Booker B and North R 2007 Scared to Death. From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing us the Earth (London: Continuum) Boykoff M T and Mansfield M 2008 Ye Olde Hot Aire: reporting on human contributions to climate change in the UK tabloid press Environ. Res. Lett. 3 024002 Houghton J 2004 Global Warming (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) IPCC 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed J T Houghton, Y Ding, D J Griggs, M Noguer, P J van der Linden, X Dai, K Maskell and C A Johnson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor, and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Lawson N 2008 An Appeal to Reason: a Cool Look at Global Warming (London: Duckworth Overlook) Michaels P J 2004 Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media (Washington: CATO Institute) Michaels P J (ed) 2005 Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield) Parker D E 2006 A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban J. Climate 19 2882 95 Pearce F 2007 The Last Generation: How Nature Will Take Her Revenge for Climate Change (London: Eden Project Books) Schellnhuber H J, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T and Yohe G (ed) 2006 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Sloan T and Wolfendale A W 2008 Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover Environ. Res. Lett. 3 024001 Smith D M, Cusack S, Colman A W, Folland C K, Harris G R and Murphy J M 2007 Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model Science 317 796 9 Spencer C 2008 Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor (New York: Encounter Books) Stott P A, Tett S F B, Jones G S, Allen M R, Mitchell J F B and Jenkins G J 2000 External control of twentieth century temperature variations by natural and anthropogenic forcings Science 290 2133 7 Photo of Chris Huntingford Dr Chris Huntingford has a degree in mathematics from Cambridge University, and a PhD in fluid dynamics from the University of Oxford. Since 1993 he has worked at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (formally the Institute of Hydrology), and has been mainly interested in the role of land atmosphere interactions within the global carbon cycle. Some of his activities involve collaboration with policymakers, and Chris is currently helping to understand what would happen in the world should potentially dangerous levels of climate change occur—and in particular how easy is it for the Earth System to return back to safe levels. Photo of David Fowler Professor David Fowler obtained a PhD in environmental physics from Nottingham University in 1976 and has worked for the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (previously Institute of Terrestrial Ecology) at the Edinburgh laboratory since 1975. David's research career has included work on all the major gaseous atmospheric pollutants, including several greenhouse gases. He has also worked on the effects of pollutant gases on vegetation and soil and has been closely involved with the development of UK maps of the distribution of air pollutants. He chairs and sits on several international committees looking at air pollution within Europe. David has published over 300 scientific papers and book chapters. He was awarded an honorary professorship from the University of Nottingham in 1990 and elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh in 1999 and a Fellow of the Royal Society of London in 2002.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using RCM nested in GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayed, E.; Jeuland, M.; Aty, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Massey, Neil; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim W.

2016-04-01

Droughts and related water scarcity can have large impacts on societies and consist of interactions between a number of natural and human factors. Meteorological conditions are usually the first natural trigger of droughts, and climate change is expected to impact these and thereby the frequency and intensity of the events. However, extreme events such as droughts are, by definition, rare, and accurately quantifying the risk related to such events is therefore difficult. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying the risks associated with droughts in the UK under present and future conditions. To do so, a large number of drought events, from climate model simulations downscaled at 25km over Europe, are being fed into hydrological models of various complexity and used for the estimation of drought risk associated with human and natural systems, including impacts on the economy, industry, agriculture, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and socio-cultural aspects. Here, we present the hydro-meteorological drought event set that has been produced by weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model (RCM). Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future horizons (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally consistent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. The drought event set for use in impact studies is constructed by extracting sequences of dry conditions from these model runs, leading to several thousand drought events. In addition to describing methodological and validation aspects of the synthetic drought event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK, its meteorological drivers, and how it can be expected to change in the future. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Toxic marine microalgae and shellfish poisoning in the British isles: history, review of epidemiology, and future implications

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

The relationship between toxic marine microalgae species and climate change has become a high profile and well discussed topic in recent years, with research focusing on the possible future impacts of changing hydrological conditions on Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) species around the world. However, there is very little literature concerning the epidemiology of these species on marine organisms and human health. Here, we examine the current state of toxic microalgae species around the UK, in two ways: first we describe the key toxic syndromes and gather together the disparate reported data on their epidemiology from UK records and monitoring procedures. Secondly, using NHS hospital admissions and GP records from Wales, we attempt to quantify the incidence of shellfish poisoning from an independent source. We show that within the UK, outbreaks of shellfish poisoning are rare but occurring on a yearly basis in different regions and affecting a diverse range of molluscan shellfish and other marine organisms. We also show that the abundance of a species does not necessarily correlate to the rate of toxic events. Based on routine hospital records, the numbers of shellfish poisonings in the UK are very low, but the identification of the toxin involved, or even a confirmation of a poisoning event is extremely difficult to diagnose. An effective shellfish monitoring system, which shuts down aquaculture sites when toxins exceed regularity limits, has clearly prevented serious impact to human health, and remains the only viable means of monitoring the potential threat to human health. However, the closure of these sites has an adverse economic impact, and the monitoring system does not include all toxic plankton. The possible geographic spreading of toxic microalgae species is therefore a concern, as warmer waters in the Atlantic could suit several species with southern biogeographical affinities enabling them to occupy the coastal regions of the UK, but which are not yet monitored or considered to be detrimental. PMID:21645342

The Cool Club: Creating engaging, experimental and creative encounters between young minds and polar researchers at SPRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weeks, S. M.; Pope, A.

2011-12-01

Whilst the scientific case for current climate change is compelling, the consequences of climate change have largely failed to permeate through to individuals. This lack of public awareness of the science and the potential impacts could be considered a key obstacle to action. The possible reasons for such limited success centre on the issue that climate change is a complex subject, and that a wide ranging academic, political and social research literature on the science and wider implications of climate change has failed to communicate the key issues in an accessible way. These failures to adequately communicate both the science and the social science of climate change at a number of levels results in ';communication gaps' that act as fundamental barriers to both understanding and engagement with the issue. Meyer and Land (2003) suggest that learners can find certain ideas and concepts within a discipline difficult to understand and these act as a barrier to deeper understanding of a subject. To move beyond these threshold concepts, they suggest that the expert needs to support the learner through a range of learning experiences that allows the development of learning strategies particular to the individual. Meyer and Land's research into these threshold concepts has been situated within Economics, but has been suggested to be more widely applicable though there has been no attempt to either define or evaluate threshold concepts to climate change science. By identifying whether common threshold concepts exist specifically in climate science for cohorts of either formal or informal learners, scientists will be better able to support the public in understanding these concepts by changing how the knowledge is communicated to help overcome these barriers to learning. This paper reports on the findings of a study that examined the role of threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science in a UK University and considers its implications for wider scientific engagement with the public to develop climate literacy. The analysis of 3 successive cohorts of students' journals who followed the same degree module identified that threshold concepts do exist within the field, such as those related to: role of ocean circulation, use of proxy indicators, forcing factors and feedback mechanisms. Once identified, the study looked at possible strategies to overcome these barriers to support student climate literacy. It concluded that the use of threshold concepts could be problematic when trying to improve climate literacy, as each individual has their own concepts they find ';troublesome' that do not necessarily relate to others. For scientists this presents the difficulty of how to develop a strategy that supports the individual that is cost and time effective. However, the study identifies that eLearning can be used effectively to help people understand troublesome knowledge.

Asynchrony in host and parasite phenology may decrease disease risk in livestock under climate warming: Nematodirus battus in lambs as a case study.

PubMed

Gethings, Owen J; Rose, Hannah; Mitchell, Siân; Van Dijk, Jan; Morgan, Eric R

2015-09-01

Mismatch in the phenology of trophically linked species as a result of climate warming has been shown to have far-reaching effects on animal communities, but implications for disease have so far received limited attention. This paper presents evidence suggestive of phenological asynchrony in a host-parasite system arising from climate change, with impacts on transmission. Diagnostic laboratory data on outbreaks of infection with the pathogenic nematode Nematodirus battus in sheep flocks in the UK were used to validate region-specific models of the effect of spring temperature on parasite transmission. The hatching of parasite eggs to produce infective larvae is driven by temperature, while the availability of susceptible hosts depends on lambing date, which is relatively insensitive to inter-annual variation in spring temperature. In southern areas and in warmer years, earlier emergence of infective larvae in spring was predicted, with decline through mortality before peak availability of susceptible lambs. Data confirmed model predictions, with fewer outbreaks recorded in those years and regions. Overlap between larval peaks and lamb availability was not reduced in northern areas, which experienced no decreases in the number of reported outbreaks. Results suggest that phenological asynchrony arising from climate warming may affect parasite transmission, with non-linear but predictable impacts on disease burden. Improved understanding of complex responses of host-parasite systems to climate change can contribute to effective adaptation of parasite control strategies.

Assessment of environmental co-benefits of energy system decarbonisation - the case of UK air quality using Remote Sensing and Model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobral Mourao, Z.; Konadu, D. D.; Damoah, R.

2016-12-01

The UK has a binding obligation to reduce GHG emission by 80% (based on 1990 levels) by 2050. Meeting this target requires extensive decarbonisation of the UK energy system. Different pathways that achieve this target at the lowest system costs are being explored at different levels of policy and decisions on future energy infrastructure. Whilst benefits of decarbonisation are mainly focused on the impacts on climate change, there are other potential environmental and health impacts such as air-quality. In particular, a decrease in fossil fuel use by directly substituting current systems with low-carbon technologies could lead to significant reductions in the concentrations of SO2, NOX, CO and other atmospheric pollutants. So far, the proposed decarbonisation pathways tend to target the electricity sector first, followed by a transition in transport and heating technologies and use. However, the spatial dimension of where short term changes in the energy sector occur in relation to high density population areas is not taken into account when defining the energy transition strategies. This may lead to limited short-term improvements in air quality within urban areas, where use of fossil fuels for heating and transport is the main contribution to overall atmospheric pollutant levels. It is therefore imperative to explore decarbonisation strategies that prioritise transition in sectors of the energy system that produce immediate improvements in air quality in key regions of the UK. This study aims to use a combination of Remote Sensing observations and atmospheric chemistry/transport modelling approaches to estimate and map the atmospheric pollutants impact of the traditional approach of decarbonising electricity first compared to a slower transition in the electricity sector, but faster change in end use sectors (heating and transport). This would provide an additional standard to compare future energy system pathways beyond the traditional metrics of cost and GHG emissions reductions.

Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds.

PubMed

Gale, P; Stephenson, B; Brouwer, A; Martinez, M; de la Torre, A; Bosch, J; Foley-Fisher, M; Bonilauri, P; Lindström, A; Ulrich, R G; de Vos, C J; Scremin, M; Liu, Z; Kelly, L; Muñoz, M J

2012-02-01

To predict the risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in livestock in Europe introduced through immature Hyalomma marginatum ticks on migratory birds under current conditions and in the decade 2075-2084 under a climate-change scenario. A spatial risk map of Europe comprising 14 282 grid cells (25 × 25 km) was constructed using three data sources: (i) ranges and abundances of four species of bird which migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe each spring, namely Willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus), Northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Tree pipit (Anthus trivialis) and Common quail (Coturnix coturnix); (ii) UK Met Office HadRM3 spring temperatures for prediction of moulting success of immature H. marginatum ticks and (iii) livestock densities. On average, the number of grid cells in Europe predicted to have at least one CCHFV incursion in livestock in spring was 1·04 per year for the decade 2005-2014 and 1·03 per year for the decade 2075-2084. In general with the assumed climate-change scenario, the risk increased in northern Europe but decreased in central and southern Europe, although there is considerable local variation in the trends. The absolute risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through ticks introduced by four abundant species of migratory bird (totalling 120 million individual birds) is very low. Climate change has opposing effects, increasing the success of the moult of the nymphal ticks into adults but decreasing the projected abundance of birds by 34% in this model. For Europe, climate change is not predicted to increase the overall risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through infected ticks introduced by these four migratory bird species. © 2011 Crown Copyright, AHVLA. Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2011 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Securing World-Class Research in UK Universities: Exploring the Impact of Block Grant Funding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Universities UK, 2009

2009-01-01

The UK research base is world class. It is second only to the USA on leading scientific indicators and crucially, during the current economic climate, ranks first on publication productivity and citations in relation to research and development public spend. Commonly known as quality-related (QR) funding because it is allocated selectively on the…

Late-glacial recolonization and phylogeography of European red deer (Cervus elaphus L.).

PubMed

Meiri, Meirav; Lister, Adrian M; Higham, Thomas F G; Stewart, John R; Straus, Lawrence G; Obermaier, Henriette; González Morales, Manuel R; Marín-Arroyo, Ana B; Barnes, Ian

2013-09-01

The Pleistocene was an epoch of extreme climatic and environmental changes. How individual species responded to the repeated cycles of warm and cold stages is a major topic of debate. For the European fauna and flora, an expansion-contraction model has been suggested, whereby temperate species were restricted to southern refugia during glacial times and expanded northwards during interglacials, including the present interglacial (Holocene). Here, we test this model on the red deer (Cervus elaphus) a large and highly mobile herbivore, using both modern and ancient mitochondrial DNA from the entire European range of the species over the last c. 40,000 years. Our results indicate that this species was sensitive to the effects of climate change. Prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) haplogroups restricted today to South-East Europe and Western Asia reached as far west as the UK. During the LGM, red deer was mainly restricted to southern refugia, in Iberia, the Balkans and possibly in Italy and South-Western Asia. At the end of the LGM, red deer expanded from the Iberian refugium, to Central and Northern Europe, including the UK, Belgium, Scandinavia, Germany, Poland and Belarus. Ancient DNA data cannot rule out refugial survival of red deer in North-West Europe through the LGM. Had such deer survived, though, they were replaced by deer migrating from Iberia at the end of the glacial. The Balkans served as a separate LGM refugium and were probably connected to Western Asia with genetic exchange between the two areas. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Investigation of Global Lightning using Schumann Resonances measured by High Frequency Induction Coil Magnetometers in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beggan, C.; Gabillard, T.; Swan, A.; Flower, S. M.; Thomson, A. W.

2012-12-01

In June 2012, the British Geological Survey Geomagnetism team installed two high frequency (100 Hz) induction coil magnetometers at the Eskdalemuir Observatory, in the Scottish Borders of the United Kingdom. The induction coils permit us to measure the very rapid changes of the magnetic field. The Eskdalemuir Observatory is one of the longest running geophysical sites in the UK (beginning operation in 1904) and is located in a rural valley with a quiet magnetic environment. The data output from the induction coils are digitized and logged onsite before being collected once per hour and sent to the Edinburgh office via the Internet. We intend to run the coils as a long term experiment. We present initial results from first five months of data. Analysis of spectrograms and power spectral density plots in the frequency band of 3-40 Hz from the coils show diffuse bands of peak power around 7.8 Hz, 14.3 Hz, 20.8 Hz, 27 Hz, 34 Hz and 39Hz related to the global Schumann resonances. We also detect a strong narrow peak at 25 Hz, which is a harmonic of the UK electrical power system. There are a number of features in the data that we wish to investigate, including the diurnal and seasonal variation of the Schumann resonances. For example, it has been suggested that lightning activity is related to climate variability in the tropics and that perhaps Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) or El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like correlations are detectable within the data. On longer timescales, we will look for solar cycle and climate variations. We also wish to note that the data is freely available on request to the community.

Assessing and managing water scarcity within the Nile River Transboundary Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butts, M. B.; Wendi, D.; Jessen, O. Z.; Riegels, N. D.

2012-04-01

The Nile Basin is the main source of water in the North Eastern Region of Africa and is perhaps one of the most critical river basins in Africa as the riparian countries constitute 40% of the population on the continent but only 10% of the area. This resource is under considerable stress with rising levels of water scarcity, high population growth, watershed degradation, and loss of environmental services. The potential impacts of climate change may significantly exacerbate this situation as the water resources in the Nile Basin are critically sensitive to climate change (Conway, Hanson, Doherty, & Persechino, 2007). The motivation for this study is an assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods and droughts within the UNEP project "Adapting to climate change induced water stress in the Nile River Basin", supported by SIDA. This project is being carried out as collaboration between DHI, the UK Met Office, and the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The Nile Basin exhibits highly diverse climatological and hydrological characteristics. Thus climate change impacts and adaptive capacity must be addressed at both regional and sub-basin scales. While the main focus of the project is the regional scale, sub-basin scale modelling is required to reflect variability within the basin. One of the major challenges in addressing this variability is the scarcity of data. This paper presents an initial screening modelling study of the water balance of the Nile Basin along with estimates of expected future impacts of climate change on the water balance. This initial study is focussed on the Ethiopian Highlands and the Lake Victoria regions, where the impact of climate change on rainfall is important. A robust sub-basin based monthly water balance model is developed and applied to selected sub-basins. The models were developed and calibrated using publicly available data. One of the major challenges in addressing this variability within the basin is the scarcity of spatial data and the results for the Kagera sub-basin show that it is important to represent the spatial distribution of the hydro-geographic characteristics such as rainfall, soil type, etc., in order to develop a reasonable representation of the water balance. These initial results show that the changes in the water balance and flow regime under climate change exhibit large uncertainty. From an examination the flow duration curves, however, there seems to be a consensus, based on an ensemble of climate projections, that flows will increase slightly the short term (2011-2030) and decrease significantly in the long term 2080-2099. The large uncertainties together with the natural variability in the Nile suggest that there is a strong need to maximise adaptive capacity with the region.

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

The hydroclimatology of UK droughts: evidence from newly recovered and reconstructed datasets from the late 19th century to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. A.; Hannaford, J.; Bloomfield, J.; McCarthy, M.; Parry, S.; Barker, L. J.; Svensson, C.; Tanguy, M.; Marchant, B.; McKenzie, A.; Legg, T.; Prudhomme, C.

2017-12-01

While the UK is regarded as a wet country, it has periodically suffered from major droughts which have caused serious environmental and societal impacts. Parts of the UK are water stressed and, in a warming world, changes to supply/demand balances could have major implications. There is a pressing need for improved tools for drought risk assessment, which is contingent on a proper understanding of past occurrence of droughts. However, our understanding of hydrological drought occurrence is grounded in the post-1960 period when most UK river flow and groundwater records commenced. As such, water resources planners would benefit from a more thorough assessment of historical drought characteristics and their variability. The multi-disciplinary `Historic Droughts' project thus aims to rigorously characterise droughts in the UK back to the 1890s to inform improved drought management. The foundation of this is a comprehensive characterisation of the hydroclimatology of UK droughts. Here, we present the results of this initiative, based on a hydrological reconstruction campaign of unparalleled scope and detail. Driven by rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data, extended in time using newly recovered observational records, hydro(geo)logical models are used to reconstruct, back to 1890, river flows for >300 catchments across the UK, and groundwater levels from >50 boreholes. The reconstructions are derived within a state-of-the-art modelling framework which allows a comprehensive assessment of uncertainty. A suite of indicators are then applied to these datasets to identify and characterise drought events, integrating precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow and groundwater. The work provides new insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of hitherto poorly quantified late 19th and early 20th century droughts. Similarly, the assessment of temporal variability of drought characteristics benefits from the long timescale of the reconstructions, in turn allowing improved assessment of the large-scale climate drivers of UK droughts. The propagation of UK drought is analysed comprehensively for the first time, highlighting the differential spatio-temporal expression of meteorological, streamflow and groundwater droughts, with important implications for water resources management.

Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate.

PubMed

Roy, David B; Oliver, Tom H; Botham, Marc S; Beckmann, Bjorn; Brereton, Tom; Dennis, Roger L H; Harrower, Colin; Phillimore, Albert B; Thomas, Jeremy A

2015-09-01

Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate-driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among-population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space-temperature and time-temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature-mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reinvestigating an interval of the English Wealden (non-marine Lower Cretaceous): Integrated analysis for palaeoenvironmental and climate cyclicities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sames, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Although increasing over the last years, relatively few studies on changing palaeoenvironments and climate cycles in non-marine archives of the Cretaceous greenhouse Earth do exist. This is primarily a result of the nature of non-marine or terrestrial deposits - strong lateral facies change on local scales and the strong local to regional control of deposition - as well as the lack of high-resolution stratigraphy and correlations to the marine record. On the other hand, major advances in the refinements of the Cretaceous timescale now facilitate the correlation and dating of short-term sea-level records and their supposable relation to climate and/or tectonic events with appropriate resolution, i.e. on Milankovitch scales. Innovations and progress in non-marine bio-, magneto- and chemostratigraphy as well as growing data on Lower and Upper Cretaceous non-marine successions are promising towards approaches for supraregional correlation of these deposits and their appropriate correlation to the Cretaceous marine standard sections. However, convincing evidence for orbitally (climate) driven cyclicity in non-marine Lower Cretaceous deposits is thus far sparse. The non-marine Wealden deposits of England have been used eponymous for widely distributed similar Lower Cretaceous non-marine facies, and they are a 'classical' example for a Mesozoic non-marine succession for which depositional cycles have been suggested since the 1970s, including the famous ostracod 'faunicycles' by F.W. Anderson, but so far lack convincing analyses and remain to be tested. The project 'Lower Cretaceous Climate and Non-marine Stratigraphy (LCCNS)' funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) analyses a chosen interval of the English Wealden at the Clock House Brickworks pit (near Capel, Surrey, England, UK) for orbitally/climate driven cyclicities with an interdisciplinary methodology: micropalaeontology, sedimentology, and geochemistry. Ostracod (aquatic microcrustaceans with calcified shell) faunal composition changes are correlated with the variation of geochemical and sedimentological parameters through time to draw conclusions regarding the controlling (palaeoenvironmental) factors and their regulating mechanisms ('climate changes', orbital cycles?), while magnetostratigraphy is used for chronological control. First results will be presented here. The crucial point of the approach is that the fluctuating evolution of a Wealden ecosystem over time is presumed to be climatically (and thus, orbitally) controlled and that the cyclic changes deducible from multiple proxies in its geologic record can be tested and used for cyclostratigraphy.

A comparison of top-down and bottom-up carbon dioxide fluxes in the UK using a multi-platform measurement network.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Emily; Rigby, Matt; O'Doherty, Simon; Stavert, Ann; Lunt, Mark; Nemitz, Eiko; Helfter, Carole; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joe; Bauguitte, Stéphane; Levy, Pete; van Oijen, Marcel; Williams, Mat; Smallman, Luke; Palmer, Paul

2016-04-01

Having a comprehensive understanding, on a countrywide scale, of both biogenic and anthropogenic CO2 emissions is essential for knowing how best to reduce anthropogenic emissions and for understanding how the terrestrial biosphere is responding to global fossil fuel emissions. Whilst anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates are fairly well constrained, fluxes from biogenic sources are not. This work will help to verify existing anthropogenic emissions inventories and give a better understanding of biosphere - atmosphere CO2 exchange. Using an innovative top-down inversion scheme; a hierarchical Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with reversible jump "trans-dimensional" basis function selection, we aim to find emissions estimates for biogenic and anthropogenic sources simultaneously. Our approach allows flux uncertainties to be derived more comprehensively than previous methods, and allows the resolved spatial scales in the solution to be determined using the data. We use atmospheric CO2 mole fraction data from the UK Deriving Emissions related to Climate Change (DECC) and Greenhouse gAs UK and Global Emissions (GAUGE) projects. The network comprises of 6 tall tower sites, flight campaigns and a ferry transect along the east coast, and enables us to derive high-resolution monthly flux estimates across the UK and Ireland for the period 2013-2015. We have derived UK total fluxes of 675 PIC 78 Tg/yr during January 2014 (seasonal maximum) and 23 PIC 96 Tg/yr during May 2014 (seasonal minimum). Our disaggregated anthropogenic and biogenic flux estimates are compared to a new high-resolution time resolved anthropogenic inventory that will underpin future UNFCCC reports by the UK, and to DALEC carbon cycle model. This allows us to identify where significant differences exist between these "bottom-up" and "top-down" flux estimates and suggest reasons for discrepancies. We will highlight the strengths and limitations of the UK's CO2 emissions verification infrastructure at present and outline improvements that could be made in the future.

Strategic appraisal of environmental risks: a contrast between the United Kingdom's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change and its Committee on Radioactive Waste Management.

PubMed

Dietz, Simon; Morton, Alec

2011-01-01

In this article, we compare two high-profile strategic policy reviews undertaken for the U.K. government on environmental risks: radioactive waste management and climate change. These reviews took very different forms, both in terms of analytic approach and deliberation strategy. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change was largely an exercise in expert modeling, building, within a cost-benefit framework, an argument for immediate reductions in carbon emissions. The Committee on Radioactive Waste Management, on the other hand, followed a much more explicitly deliberative and participative process, using multicriteria decision analysis to bring together scientific evidence and stakeholder and public values. In this article, we ask why the two reviews were different, and whether the differences are justified. We conclude that the differences were mainly due to political context, rather than the underpinning science, and as a consequence that, while in our view "fit for purpose," they would both have been stronger had they been less different. Stern's grappling with ethical issues could have been strengthened by a greater degree of public and stakeholder engagement, and the Committee on Radioactive Waste Management's handling of issues of uncertainty could have been strengthened by the explicitly probabilistic framework of Stern. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

What is the Value Added to Adaptation Planning by Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.

2008-12-01

Probabilistic projections of climate change offer new sources of risk information to support regional impacts assessment and adaptation options appraisal. However, questions continue to surround how best to apply these scenarios in a practical context, and whether the added complexity and computational burden leads to more robust decision-making. This paper provides an overview of recent efforts in the UK to 'bench-test' frameworks for employing probabilistic projections ahead of the release of the next generation, UKCIP08 projections (in November 2008). This is involving close collaboration between government agencies, research and stakeholder communities. Three examples will be cited to illustrate how probabilistic projections are already informing decisions about future flood risk management in London, water resource planning in trial river basins, and assessments of risks from rising water temperatures to Atlantic salmon stocks in southern England. When compared with conventional deterministic scenarios, ensemble projections allow exploration of a wider range of management options and highlight timescales for implementing adaptation measures. Users of probabilistic scenarios must keep in mind that other uncertainties (e.g., due to impacts model structure and parameterisation) should be handled in an equally rigorous way to those arising from climate models and emission scenarios. Finally, it is noted that a commitment to long-term monitoring is also critical for tracking environmental change, testing model projections, and for evaluating the success (or not) of any scenario-led interventions.

Factors predicting change in hospital safety climate and capability in a multi-site patient safety collaborative: a longitudinal survey study.

PubMed

Benn, Jonathan; Burnett, Susan; Parand, Anam; Pinto, Anna; Vincent, Charles

2012-07-01

The study had two specific objectives: (1) To analyse change in a survey measure of organisational patient safety climate and capability (SCC) resulting from participation in the UK Safer Patients Initiative and (2) To investigate the role of a range of programme and contextual factors in predicting change in SCC scores. Single group longitudinal design with repeated measurement at 12-month follow-up. Multiple service areas within NHS hospital sites across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Stratified sample of 284 respondents representing programme teams at 19 hospital sites. A complex intervention comprising a multi-component quality improvement collaborative focused upon patient safety and designed to impact upon hospital leadership, communication, organisation and safety climate. A survey including a 31-item SCC scale was administered at two time-points. Modest but significant positive movement in SCC score was observed between the study time-points. Individual programme responsibility, availability of early adopters, multi-professional collaboration and extent of process measurement were significant predictors of change in SCC. Hospital type and size, along with a range of programme preconditions, were not found to be significant. A range of social, cultural and organisational factors may be sensitive to this type of intervention but the measurable effect is small. Supporting critical local programme implementation factors may be an effective strategy in achieving development in organisational patient SCC, regardless of contextual factors and organisational preconditions.

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod

PubMed Central

Engelhard, Georg H; Righton, David A; Pinnegar, John K

2014-01-01

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913–2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod – mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea – is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century – mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3½ decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish. PMID:24375860

Thermal sensation and climate: a comparison of UTCI and PET thresholds in different climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantavou, Katerina; Lykoudis, Spyridon; Nikolopoulou, Marialena; Tsiros, Ioannis X.

2018-06-01

The influence of physiological acclimatization and psychological adaptation on thermal perception is well documented and has revealed the importance of thermal experience and expectation in the evaluation of environmental stimuli. Seasonal patterns of thermal perception have been studied, and calibrated thermal indices' scales have been proposed to obtain meaningful interpretations of thermal sensation indices in different climate regions. The current work attempts to quantify the contribution of climate to the long-term thermal adaptation by examining the relationship between climate normal annual air temperature (1971-2000) and such climate-calibrated thermal indices' assessment scales. The thermal sensation ranges of two thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature Index (PET), were calibrated for three warm temperate climate contexts (Cfa, Cfb, Csa), against the subjective evaluation of the thermal environment indicated by interviewees during field surveys conducted at seven European cities: Athens (GR), Thessaloniki (GR), Milan (IT), Fribourg (CH), Kassel (DE), Cambridge (UK), and Sheffield (UK), under the same research protocol. Then, calibrated scales for other climate contexts were added from the literature, and the relationship between the respective scales' thresholds and climate normal annual air temperature was examined. To maintain the maximum possible comparability, three methods were applied for the calibration, namely linear, ordinal, and probit regression. The results indicated that the calibrated UTCI and PET thresholds increase with the climate normal annual air temperature of the survey city. To investigate further climates, we also included in the analysis results of previous studies presenting only thresholds for neutral thermal sensation. The average increase of the respective thresholds in the case of neutral thermal sensation was about 0.6 °C for each 1 °C increase of the normal annual air temperature for both indices, statistically significant only for PET though.

Diversity and Inclusivity at University: A Survey of the Experiences of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans (LGBT) Students in the UK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellis, Sonja J.

2009-01-01

The extent to which UK universities are "gay friendly" has received some attention in the press. Whilst there are a number of published studies exploring campus climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual and trans (LGBT) students and/or staff, these are primarily localised studies undertaken in State Universities and Baccalaureate Colleges in…

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using a nested Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soliman, E.; Jeuland, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project - 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekström, M.; Jones, P. D.; Fowler, H. J.; Lenderink, G.; Buishand, T. A.; Conway, D.

2007-04-01

Climate data for studies within the SWURVE (Sustainable Water: Uncertainty, Risk and Vulnerability in Europe) project, assessing the risk posed by future climatic change to various hydrological and hydraulic systems were obtained from the regional climate model HadRM3H, developed at the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. This paper gives some background to HadRM3H; it also presents anomaly maps of the projected future changes in European temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET, estimated using a variant of the Penman formula). The future simulations of temperature and rainfall, following the SRES A2 emissions scenario, suggest that most of Europe will experience warming in all seasons, with heavier precipitation in winter in much of western Europe (except for central and northern parts of the Scandinavian mountains) and drier summers in most parts of western and central Europe (except for the north-west and the eastern part of the Baltic Sea). Particularly large temperature anomalies (>6°C) are projected for north-east Europe in winter and for southern Europe, Asia Minor and parts of Russia in summer. The projected PET displayed very large increases in summer for a region extending from southern France to Russia. The unrealistically large values could be the result of an enhanced hydrological cycle in HadRM3H, affecting several of the input parameters to the PET calculation. To avoid problems with hydrological modelling schemes, PET was re-calculated, using empirical relationships derived from observational values of temperature and PET.

Relative importance of local- and large-scale drivers of alpine soil microarthropod communities.

PubMed

Mitchell, Ruth J; Urpeth, Hannah M; Britton, Andrea J; Black, Helaina; Taylor, Astrid R

2016-11-01

Nitrogen (N) deposition and climate are acknowledged drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystem function at large scales. However, at a local scale, their impact on functions and community structure of organisms is filtered by drivers like habitat quality and food quality/availability. This study assesses the relative impact of large-scale factors, N deposition and climate (rainfall and temperature), versus local-scale factors of habitat quality and food quality/availability on soil fauna communities at 15 alpine moss-sedge heaths along an N deposition gradient in the UK. Habitat quality and food quality/availability were the primary drivers of microarthropod communities. No direct impacts of N deposition on the microarthropod community were observed, but induced changes in habitat quality (decline in moss cover and depth) and food quality (decreased vegetation C:N) associated with increased N deposition strongly suggest an indirect impact of N. Habitat quality and climate explained variation in the composition of the Oribatida, Mesostigmata, and Collembola communities, while only habitat quality significantly impacted the Prostigmata. Food quality and prey availability were important in explaining the composition of the oribatid and mesostigmatid mite communities, respectively. This study shows that, in alpine habitats, soil microarthropod community structure responds most strongly to local-scale variation in habitat quality and food availability rather than large-scale variation in climate and pollution. However, given the strong links between N deposition and the key habitat quality parameters, we conclude that N deposition indirectly drives changes in the soil microarthropod community, suggesting a mechanism by which large-scale drivers indirectly impacts these functionally important groups.

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. June 2010 Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Increasing Advocacy for BPA Restrictions…………………………….……………8 6.9 Toxic Substances Control Act Up for Revision…………………………..………….8 6.10 Climate Change ...arrangements against EMPs in the light of this forecast. Source: NASA warns solar flares from ’huge space storm’ will cause devastation http...www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7819201/Nasa-warns-solar-flares-from-huge-space-sto rm-will- cause -devastation.html Item 2. OSCE is Enhancing Environmental

The pore space scramble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gormally, Alexandra; Bentham, Michelle; Vermeylen, Saskia; Markusson, Nils

2015-04-01

Climate change and energy security continue to be the context of the transition to a secure, affordable and low carbon energy future, both in the UK and beyond. This is reflected in for example, binding climate policy targets at the EU level, the introduction of renewable energy targets, and has also led to an increasing interest in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology with its potential to help mitigate against the effects of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning. The UK has proposed a three phase strategy to integrate CCS into its energy system in the long term focussing on off-shore subsurface storage (DECC, 2014). The potential of CCS therefore, raises a number of challenging questions and issues surrounding the long-term storage of CO2 captured and injected into underground spaces and, alongside other novel uses of the subsurface, contributes to opening a new field for discussion on the governance of the subsurface. Such 'novel' uses of the subsurface have lead to it becoming an increasingly contested space in terms of its governance, with issues emerging around the role of ownership, liability and property rights of subsurface pore space. For instance, questions over the legal ownership of pore space have arisen with ambiguity over the legal standpoint of the surface owner and those wanting to utilise the pore space for gas storage, and suggestions of whether there are depths at which legal 'ownership' becomes obsolete (Barton, 2014). Here we propose to discuss this 'pore space scramble' and provide examples of the competing trajectories of different stakeholders, particularly in the off-shore context given its priority in the UK. We also propose to highlight the current ambiguity around property law of pore space in the UK with reference to approaches currently taken in different national contexts. Ultimately we delineate contrasting models of governance to illustrate the choices we face and consider the ethics of these models for the common good. Barton, B (2014) The Common Law of Subsurface Activity: General Principle and Current Problems. In: Zillman, D.N., McHarg, A., Barrera-Hernandez, L., Bradbrook., A. (Eds), The Law of Energy Underground: Understanding new developments in subsurface production, transmission, and storage. Oxford University Press, Croydon, pp. 21-36. DECC (2014) Next steps in CCS: Policy Scoping Document - Developing an approach for the next phase of Carbon Capture and Storage projects in the UK. HM Government.

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod.

PubMed

Engelhard, Georg H; Righton, David A; Pinnegar, John K

2014-08-01

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913-2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod - mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea - is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century - mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3 1/2 decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish. © 2013 Crown copyright. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

2013-04-01

Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results indicated that when the effect of extreme events was not considered, climate change had a low or no impact on crop yield distribution in 2020 and 2040. This resulted into an expected payout close to what observed in the present period. Conversely, the simulation of the effect of extreme events highly affected the PDFs by reducing the expected yield. This highlights that insured yield in future projections may be overestimated when not considering the impact of extremes, leading to distortions in the risk management of crop insurance companies. References Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M (2011) Climate ch'ange impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Clim Change 104:679-701 Sherrick BJ, Zanini FC, Schnitkey GD, Irwin SH (2004) Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86:406-419. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3 PB, UK. 160 pp

Non- medical prescribing in Australasia and the UK: the case of podiatry.

PubMed

Borthwick, Alan M; Short, Anthony J; Nancarrow, Susan A; Boyce, Rosalie

2010-01-05

The last decade has witnessed a rapid transformation in the role boundaries of the allied health professions, enabled through the creation of new roles and the expansion of existing, traditional roles. A strategy of health care 'modernisation' has encompassed calls for the redrawing of professional boundaries and identities, linked with demands for greater workforce flexibility. Several tasks and roles previously within the exclusive domain of medicine have been delegated to, or assumed by, allied health professionals, as the workforce is reshaped to meet the challenges posed by changing demographic, social and political contexts. The prescribing of medicines by non-medically qualified healthcare professionals, and in particular the podiatry profession, reflects these changes. Using a range of key primary documentary sources derived from published material in the public domain and unpublished material in private possession, this paper traces the development of contemporary UK and Australasian podiatric prescribing, access, supply and administration of medicines. Documentary sources include material from legislative, health policy, regulatory and professional bodies (including both State and Federal sources in Australia). Tracing a chronological, comparative, socio-historical account of the emergence and development of 'prescribing' in podiatry in both Australasia and the UK enables an analysis of the impact of health policy reforms on the use of, and access to, medicines by podiatrists. The advent of neo-liberal healthcare policies, coupled with demands for workforce flexibility and role transfer within a climate of demographic, economic and social change has enabled allied health professionals to undertake an expanding number of tasks involving the sale, supply, administration and prescription of medicines. As a challenge to medical dominance, these changes, although driven by wider healthcare policy, have met with resistance. As anticipated in the theory of medical dominance, inter-professional jurisdictional disputes centred on the right to access, administer, supply and prescribe medicines act as obstacles to workforce change. Nevertheless, the broader policy agenda continues to ensure workforce redesign in which podiatry has assumed wider roles and responsibilities in prescribing.

Drainage in Shallow Peatlands of Marginal Upland Landscapes: DOC Losses from High Flow Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grand-Clement, E.; Anderson, K.; Luscombe, D.; Gatis, N.; Benaud, P.; Brazier, R.

2013-12-01

Peatlands are widely represented in northern Europe, especially in the UK. In the South West of England (i.e. Exmoor, Dartmoor and Bodmin moors), climate change puts their existence under threat: according to recent modelling work, marginal peatlands are highly vulnerable to future temperature and precipitation change and are likely to be the first to disappear from as early as 2050. Additionally, peat cutting and intensive drainage for agricultural reclamation in the 19th and 20th century, have modified the hydrological behaviour of these shallow peatlands and dried out the upper layers, causing oxidation, erosion and vegetation change. Such anthropogenic interventions directly impact on the storage of carbon, but also the provision of other ecosystem services, such as the supply of drinking water, and the support of specific and rare habitats. Large restoration programs involving the blocking of drainage ditches are currently under way throughout the UK but, to date, little is known about the consequences of such management approaches on overall Carbon stocks, and whether the restoration can revert ecosystems back to a state similar to that of undisturbed peatlands. In this context, Exmoor is particularly vulnerable due to its location at the southernmost margin of the UK peatlands' geographical extent, and its dense network of drainage ditches putting pressure on already very shallow peat resources. We hypothesise that monitoring of these peatlands may provide an ';early warning system' for climatic impacts that could affect more northerly sites in years to come, as climates change more significantly. The aim of this study is to look at the current impact of peatland degradation on water quality on Exmoor during rainfall-runoff events. Our experimental approach employs detailed, high resolution monitoring of selected ditches that are representative of damaged conditions on Exmoor, from small- (30 x 30cm ditches) through medium- (50x50cm), large- (1-2m ditches) and finally headwater catchment-scales. Flow monitoring has been in place at all scales since November 2010. Flow-proportional water samples were collected during a range of events throughout winter 2011 to 2013 and analysed for Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) and colour, as these variables were identified as critical, both in terms of carbon cycling and for costly water treatment that currently takes place downstream. DOC fluxes were examined temporarily and spatially in relation to season, drain sizes, and magnitude/frequency of event. First results show higher DOC concentrations during rain events occurring in the summer compared to winter times, due to generally drier conditions. DOC fluxes per 24h rain events reach up to 3g/m2. Such measurements are used to evaluate annual DOC losses at the scale of the whole catchment. This will help improving our understanding of carbon losses and fluxes in streams from damaged peatlands, and further estimate the impact on the supply of ecosystem services, and the potential for improvement that can be expected following restoration.

Use of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model to investigate interannual variability in methane sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayman, Garry; O'Connor, Fiona; Clark, Douglas; Huntingford, Chris; Gedney, Nicola

2013-04-01

The global mean atmospheric concentration of methane (CH4) has more than doubled during the industrial era [1] and now constitutes ? 20% of the anthropogenic climate forcing by greenhouse gases [2]. The globally-averaged CH4 growth rate, derived from surface measurements, has fallen significantly from a high of 16 ppb yr-1 in the late 1970s/early 1980s and was close to zero between 1999 and 2006 [1]. This overall period of declining or low growth was however interspersed with years of positive growth-rate anomalies (e.g., in 1991-1992, 1998-1999 and 2002-2003). Since 2007, renewed growth has been evident [1, 3], with the largest increases observed over polar northern latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere in 2007 and in the tropics in 2008. The observed inter-annual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations and the associated changes in growth rates have variously been attributed to changes in different methane sources and sinks [1, 4]. In this paper, we report results from runs of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model [5] using year- and month-specific emission datasets. The HadGEM2 model includes the comprehensive atmospheric chemistry and aerosol package, the UK Chemistry Aerosol community model (UKCA, http://www.ukca.ac.uk/wiki/index.php). The Standard Tropospheric Chemistry scheme was selected for this work. This chemistry scheme simulates the Ox, HOx and NOx chemical cycles and the oxidation of CO, methane, ethane and propane. Year- and month-specific emission datasets were generated for the period from 1997 to 2009 for the emitted species in the chemistry scheme (CH4, CO, NOx, HCHO, C2H6, C3H8, CH3CHO, CH3CHOCH3). The approach adopted varied depending on the source sector: Anthropogenic: The emissions from anthropogenic sources were based on decadal-averaged emission inventories compiled by [6] for the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). These were then used to derive year-specific emission datasets by scaling the emission totals for the different years and source sectors using sector and species-specific scaling factors based on the annual trends given in various EDGAR time series: (a) version 4.2 for all species (except NMVOCs) and version 4.1 for NMVOCs; (b) v3.2. This approach was also applied to the emissions from aviation (only for oxides of nitrogen) and international shipping. Biomass burning: Month-specific emission inventories are available from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, v3.1) for the years 1997 to 2009 [7]. The emissions were rescaled to give the same decadal mean as used in the Hadley Centre's earlier HadGEM2 runs (25 Tg CH4 per annum). Other: Sources such as termites and hydrates for methane were taken from the GEIA website and the dataset of Fung et al. [8]. The datasets contain a single annual cycle, which was assumed to apply for all years. For CH4, there are also emissions from wetlands. These were either based on the dataset of Fung et al. [8] or derived from the JULES (Joint UK Land Earth Simulator) land surface model [9, 10]. The standard version of JULES uses a simple methane wetland emission parameterization, developed and tested by [11] for use at large spatial scales. The surface concentrations from the different model runs have been compared to surface atmospheric CH4 measurements. In addition, growth rates have been derived. These comparisons will be reported and used to assess the contribution of different methane sources to the interannual variations in the methane growth rate. References [1] Dlugokencky, E.J., et al.: Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369, 2058-2072; doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0341, 2011. [2] Forster, P., et al.: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007. [3] Rigby, M., et al.: Renewed growth of atmospheric methane. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L22805, doi:10.1029/2008GL036037, 2008. [4] Bousquet, P., et al.: Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability, Nature, 443, 439-443, doi:10.1038/nature05132, 2006. [5] Collins, W. J., et al.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model - HadGEM2, Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 1051-1075, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011. [6] Lamarque, J.-F., et al.: Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 7017-7039, doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010. [7] van der Werf, G. R., et al.: Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009), Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 11707-11735, doi:10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010, 2010. [8] Fung, I., et al.: Three-dimensional model synthesis of the Global Methane Cycle. Journal of Geophysical Research, 96, 13,033-13,065, 1991. [9] Best, M. J., et al.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description - Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 677-699, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011. [10] Clark, D.B., et al.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), Model description - Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation. Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 701-722, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011. [11] Gedney, N., et al.: Climate feedback from wetland methane emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L20503, 2004.

Negative effects of climate change on upland grassland productivity and carbon fluxes are not attenuated by nitrogen status.

PubMed

Eze, Samuel; Palmer, Sheila M; Chapman, Pippa J

2018-05-09

Effects of climate change on managed grassland carbon (C) fluxes and biomass production are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the individual and interactive effects of experimental warming (+3 °C above ambient summer daily range of 9-12 °C), supplemental precipitation (333 mm +15%) and drought (333 mm -23%) on plant biomass, microbial biomass C (MBC), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and dissolved organic C (DOC) flux in soil cores from two upland grasslands of different soil nitrogen (N) status (0.54% and 0.37%) in the UK. After one month of acclimation to ambient summer temperature and precipitation, five replicate cores of each treatment were subjected to three months of experimental warming, drought and supplemental precipitation, based on the projected regional summer climate by the end of the 21st Century, in a fully factorial design. NEE and DOC flux were measured throughout the experimental duration, alongside other environmental variables including soil temperature and moisture. Plant biomass and MBC were determined at the end of the experiment. Results showed that warming plus drought resulted in a significant decline in belowground plant biomass (-29 to -37%), aboveground plant biomass (-35 to -77%) and NEE (-13 to -29%), regardless of the N status of the soil. Supplemental precipitation could not reverse the negative effects of warming on the net ecosystem C uptake and plant biomass production. This was attributed to physiological stress imposed by warming which suggests that future summer climate will reduce the C sink capacity of the grasslands. Due to the low moisture retention observed in this study, and to verify our findings, it is recommended that future experiments aimed at measuring soil C dynamics under climate change should be carried out under field conditions. Longer term experiments are recommended to account for seasonal and annual variability, and adaptive changes in biota. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

METEO in the TALNET project after 5 years - meteorology for talented high schools students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisoft, P.; Miksovsky, J.

2010-09-01

TALNET is a project aiming to systematically identify and work with gifted youth (13-19 years). Specifically, it applies online educational activities combined with face to face activities. It has been organised by the Faculty of Maths and Physics (MFF) of Charles University in Prague (UK) and National Institute for Youth (NIDM) since 2003, later in cooperation with other faculties, e.g. Natural Sciences (PrF UK), universities and science and research institutes in the Czech Republic and abroad, e.g. DLR, Germany. Topics of the educational activities come from natural sciences (such as physics, astronomy, biology, chemistry, meteorology etc.) and mathematics. The presented project's part METEO embraces lessons primarily focused on basics of meteorology and atmospheric physics in general and it has been part of the Talnet project for 5 years. The meteorological lectures consist of description of, e.g., climate system, meteorological quantities, weather forecasting, ozone and the stratosphere, climate change or atmospheric optics. On top of the lectures, the students are encouraged to work on enclosed homework such as meteorological time series analysis, clouds observation and classification, halo simulation and so on. The METEO course lasts one semester and the students make their seminar thesis at the end. The presented materials will consist of examples of the contemporary lectures and their organization, homeworks or seminar theses.

UK emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide

PubMed Central

Skiba, U.; Jones, S. K.; Dragosits, U.; Drewer, J.; Fowler, D.; Rees, R. M.; Pappa, V. A.; Cardenas, L.; Chadwick, D.; Yamulki, S.; Manning, A. J.

2012-01-01

Signatories of the Kyoto Protocol are obliged to submit annual accounts of their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which include nitrous oxide (N2O). Emissions from the sectors industry (3.8 Gg), energy (14.4 Gg), agriculture (86.8 Gg), wastewater (4.4 Gg), land use, land-use change and forestry (2.1 Gg) can be calculated by multiplying activity data (i.e. amount of fertilizer applied, animal numbers) with simple emission factors (Tier 1 approach), which are generally applied across wide geographical regions. The agricultural sector is the largest anthropogenic source of N2O in many countries and responsible for 75 per cent of UK N2O emissions. Microbial N2O production in nitrogen-fertilized soils (27.6 Gg), nitrogen-enriched waters (24.2 Gg) and manure storage systems (6.4 Gg) dominate agricultural emission budgets. For the agricultural sector, the Tier 1 emission factor approach is too simplistic to reflect local variations in climate, ecosystems and management, and is unable to take into account some of the mitigation strategies applied. This paper reviews deviations of observed emissions from those calculated using the simple emission factor approach for all anthropogenic sectors, briefly discusses the need to adopt specific emission factors that reflect regional variability in climate, soil type and management, and explains how bottom-up emission inventories can be verified by top-down modelling. PMID:22451103

Seasonally Distinct Reconstructions of Northern Alaskan Temperature Variability Since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, W. M.; Crowther, J.; Daniels, W.; Russell, J. M.; Giblin, A. E.; Morrill, C.; Zhang, X.; Wang, X.; Huang, Y.

2015-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions have provided little consensus on how continental temperatures in Eastern Beringia changed from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present. Reconstructions show regional differences in LGM severity, the timing of deglacial warming, and Holocene temperature variability. Currently, arctic temperatures are increasing at the fastest rates on the planet, highlighting the need to identify the sensitivities of arctic systems to various climate forcings. This cannot be done without resolving the complex climate history of Eastern Beringia. Here, we present two new organic geochemical temperature reconstructions from Lake E5, north central Alaska that span the LGM, last glacial termination and Holocene. The proxies (alkenones and brGDGTs) record seasonally distinct temperatures, allowing for the attribution of different forcings to each proxy. The alkenone-based UK37 reconstruction records spring/early summer lake temperatures and indicates a 4 oC abrupt warming at 13.1 ka and a relatively warm late Holocene, which peaks at 2.4 ka and exhibits a cooling trend from 2.4 to 0.1 ka. The brGDGT reconstruction is calibrated to mean annual air temperature and interpreted here as exhibiting a strong warm season bias. BrGDGTs show an abrupt 4.5 oC warming at 14 ka, and show evidence for an early Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), which cools by 3 oC after 8.4 ka. Because UK37 temperatures do not exhibit an early HTM, we hypothesize that summer insolation had a minimal effect on spring/early summer lake temperatures. Instead, the UK37 reconstruction agrees with sea ice and sea surface temperature reconstructions from the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and northeast Pacific Ocean. We hypothesize that forcings associated with sea ice concentration and changes in atmospheric circulation had stronger affects on spring/early summer lake temperatures and we present modern observational data in support of this hypothesis. By contrast, the summer-biased brGDGT reconstruction suggests a strong and relatively direct temperature response to summer insolation forcing. Together, these records suggest that both internal and external forcings significantly affected LGM to present temperature variability in Eastern Beringia, with different seasonal biases.

Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

2015-04-01

Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting climate change across the globe. Changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously result in complex non-linear ecosystem responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf- and canopy-scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (Community Land Model version 3.5 coupled to the Dynamic Global Vegetation model - CLM3.5-DGVM; Ecosystem Demography model version 2 - ED2; the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 - JULES; Simple Biosphere model version 3 - SiB3; and the soil-plant-atmosphere model - SPA) to simulate the responses of leaf- and canopy-scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation, but all the models were consistent with the prediction that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C cooler than current ambient temperatures. There was greater model-data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to changes in temperature than in the response to temperature by net photosynthesis (An), stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf area index (LAI). Modelled canopy-scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf-scale fluxes using LAI. At the leaf-scale, the models did not agree on the temperature or magnitude of the optimum points of An, Vcmax or gs, and model variation in these parameters was compensated for by variations in the absolute magnitude of simulated LAI and how it altered with temperature. Across the models, there was, however, consistency in two leaf-scale responses: (1) change in An with temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes; and (2) intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE) increased with temperature, especially when combined with drought. These results suggest that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.

Estimating National-scale Emissions using Dense Monitoring Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganesan, A.; Manning, A.; Grant, A.; Young, D.; Oram, D.; Sturges, W. T.; Moncrieff, J. B.; O'Doherty, S.

2014-12-01

The UK's DECC (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change) network consists of four greenhouse gas measurement stations that are situated to constrain emissions from the UK and Northwest Europe. These four stations are located in Mace Head (West Coast of Ireland), and on telecommunication towers at Ridge Hill (Western England), Tacolneston (Eastern England) and Angus (Eastern Scotland). With the exception of Angus, which currently only measures carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), the remaining sites are additionally equipped to monitor nitrous oxide (N2O). We present an analysis of the network's CH4 and N2O observations from 2011-2013 and compare derived top-down regional emissions with bottom-up inventories, including a recently produced high-resolution inventory (UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory). As countries are moving toward national-level emissions estimation, we also address some of the considerations that need to be made when designing these national networks. One of the novel aspects of this work is that we use a hierarchical Bayesian inversion framework. This methodology, which has newly been applied to greenhouse gas emissions estimation, is designed to estimate temporally and spatially varying model-measurement uncertainties and correlation scales, in addition to fluxes. Through this analysis, we demonstrate the importance of characterizing these covariance parameters in order to properly use data from high-density monitoring networks. This UK case study highlights the ways in which this new inverse framework can be used to address some of the limitations of traditional Bayesian inverse methods.

Developing a sustainable energy strategy for a water utility. Part I: A review of the UK legislative framework.

PubMed

Zakkour, P D; Gaterell, M R; Griffin, P; Gochin, R J; Lester, J N

2002-10-01

Increasing political effort to improve water quality across the UK and Europe has led to water and sewerage companies investing heavily in high-tech wastewater treatment plants capable of producing high quality effluents. Consequently, amounts of bought-in electricity used for wastewater treatment has and will continue to increase significantly over coming years, while greater provision of enhanced sewage treatment also produces greater volumes of sewage sludge requiring treatment and disposal. Over the same period, tougher controls on the quality of biosolids applied to agricultural land have also been introduced, while there has been an international attempt to reduce the use of fossil-fuel derived power sources because of concerns over global warming. The latter has brought about the introduction of financial instruments, such as the Climate Change Levy, to curb energy use, promote energy efficiency and encourage the development of renewable energy technologies. These factors are set to drive-up the costs of providing adequate sewage treatment services, while at the same time, a tough regulatory line taken to control profits on regional monopolies held by the UK water companies will significantly reduce their revenues over the period 2000-05. The result is that, financially, UK water and sewerage companies face their most challenging period since privatisation in 1989. This paper briefly outlines the current regulations relating to water quality and energy use that will affect water company operations over coming years.

Quantitative assessment of the importance of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation to climate change in wild bird populations.

PubMed

Vedder, Oscar; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Sheldon, Ben C

2013-07-01

Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations.

Measurement of historical cliff-top changes and estimation of future trends using GIS data between Bridlington and Hornsea - Holderness Coast (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castedo, Ricardo; de la Vega-Panizo, Rogelio; Fernández-Hernández, Marta; Paredes, Carlos

2015-02-01

A key requirement for effective coastal zone management is good knowledge of historical rates of change and the ability to predict future shoreline evolution, especially for rapidly eroding areas. Historical shoreline recession analysis was used for the prediction of future cliff shoreline positions along a section of 9 km between Bridlington and Hornsea, on the northern area of the Holderness Coast, UK. The analysis was based on historical maps and aerial photographs dating from 1852 to 2011 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) 4.3, extension of ESRI's ArcInfo 10.×. The prediction of future shorelines was performed for the next 40 years using a variety of techniques, ranging from extrapolation from historical data, geometric approaches like the historical trend analysis, to a process-response numerical model that incorporates physically-based equations and geotechnical stability analysis. With climate change and sea-level rise implying that historical rates of change may not be a reliable guide for the future, enhanced visualization of the evolving coastline has the potential to improve awareness of these changing conditions. Following the IPCC, 2013 report, two sea-level rise rates, 2 mm/yr and 6 mm/yr, have been used to estimate future shoreline conditions. This study illustrated that good predictive models, once their limitations are estimated or at least defined, are available for use by managers, planners, engineers, scientists and the public to make better decisions regarding coastal management, development, and erosion-control strategies.

Climate Change-Induced Shifts in the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Amazon Basin and Its Impacts on Local Eco-Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Z. D.; Buytaert, W.; Veliz, C.

2014-12-01

The potential impact of a changing climate on Andean-Amazonian hydrology is an important question for scientists and policymakers alike, because of its implications for local ecosystem services such as water resources availability, river flow regulation, and eco-hydrology. This study presents new projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river in Peru, and the consequent effect on two vulnerable species of freshwater turtle populations Podocnemis expansa (Amazon turtle) and Podocnemis unilis (yellow-spotted side neck turtle), which nest on its banks. To do this, the global climate model outputs of radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are propagated through a hydrological model to simulate changes in river flow. The model consists of a land surface scheme called the Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) that is coupled to a distributed river flow routing routine, which also accounts for floodplain attenuation of flood peaks. It is parameterized using a combination of remote sensing (TRMM, MODIS, an Landsat) and ground observational data to reproduce reliably the historical floodplain regime. The climate-induced shifts are inferred from a comparison between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections against the historical scenario. Changes in the 10th and 95th percentile of flows, as well as the distributions in the length of the dry and wet seasons are analysed. These parameters are then used to construct probability models of biologically significant events (BSEs - extreme dry year, extreme wet year and repiquete), which are negative drivers of the turtle-egg ovipositioning, nesting and hatching. The results indicate that the projected increase in wet-season precipitation overcome the increase in evapotranspirative demand from an increase in temperature, resulting in more frequent and longer term flooding that causes a net loss of total turtle-egg counts. Additionally, changes in air and water temperature may alter the male / female ratio of the turtles.

A novel grass hybrid to reduce flood generation in temperate regions

PubMed Central

Macleod, Christopher (Kit) J. A.; Humphreys, Mike W.; Whalley, W. Richard; Turner, Lesley; Binley, Andrew; Watts, Chris W.; Skøt, Leif; Joynes, Adrian; Hawkins, Sarah; King, Ian P.; O'Donovan, Sally; Haygarth, Phil M.

2013-01-01

We report on the evaluation of a novel grass hybrid that provides efficient forage production and could help mitigate flooding. Perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) is the grass species of choice for most farmers, but lacks resilience against extremes of climate. We hybridised L. perenne onto a closely related and more stress-resistant grass species, meadow fescue Festuca pratensis. We demonstrate that the L. perenne × F. pratensis cultivar can reduce runoff during the events by 51% compared to a leading UK nationally recommended L. perenne cultivar and by 43% compared to F. pratensis over a two year field experiment. We present evidence that the reduced runoff from this Festulolium cultivar was due to intense initial root growth followed by rapid senescence, especially at depth. Hybrid grasses of this type show potential for reducing the likelihood of flooding, whilst providing food production under conditions of changing climate. PMID:23619058

Late Neogene Orbitally-Forced Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific as Measured by Uk'37 and TEX86

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, K. T.; Pearson, A.; Castañeda, I. S.; Peterson, L.

2017-12-01

Key features of late Neogene climate remain uncertain due to conflicting records derived from different sea surface temperature (SST) proxies. To resolve these disputes, it is necessary to explore both the consistencies and differences between paleotemperature estimates from critical oceanographic regimes. Here, we report orbital-scale climate variability at ODP Site 846 in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) in the interval from 5-6 Ma using alkenone and TEX86 temperature estimates. Results from both proxies are very similar in their secular trends and magnitude of long-term temperature change; and spectral analysis demonstrates that the records are coherent and in-phase or nearly in-phase in both the obliquity and precession bands. However, we find that the temperatures reconstructed by TEX86 are consistently offset towards colder values by 2ºC with orbital-scale variations approximately twice the amplitude of the Uk'37 derived estimates. Both temperature records are antiphased - i.e. "colder" - at higher sediment alkenone concentrations, a qualitative indicator of increased glacial productivity. Temperature differences between the proxies are accentuated during glacial intervals in contrasts to modern observations of EEP surface and subsurface temperatures, which show that thermocline temperatures are fairly stable, and thus by analogy, glacial cooling and/or enhanced upwelling should have reduced rather than accentuated temperature gradients in the upper water column. Therefore, arguments that Uk'37 corresponds to temperature variability in the surface, while TEX86 responds to the subsurface, may be too simplistic. Instead, it appears generally true that high-productivity environments, including the EEP, tend to have negative TEX86 anomalies. This may reflect a dual dependence of TEX86 records on both water column temperature and local productivity. Overall, our data suggest that in the EEP and likely in other upwelling zones, paleotemperature data derived from these proxies should not necessarily be used interchangeably and only Uk'37 is suitable for determining absolute SSTs. However, our data also suggest that TEX86 may be suitable for estimating long-term trends in SST and for spectral and phase analysis in upwelling regimes.

Potential reciprocal effect between land use / land cover change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daham, Afrah; Han, Dawei; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel

2016-04-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) activity influences climate change and one way to explore climate change is to analyse the change in LULC patterns. Modelling the Spatio-temporal pattern of LULC change requires the use of satellite remote sensing data and aerial photographs with different pre-processing steps. The aim of this research is to analyse the reciprocal effects of LUCC (Land Use and Cover Change) and the climate change on each other in the study area which covers part of Bristol, South Gloucestershire, Bath and Somerset in England for the period (1975-2015). LUCC is assessed using remote sensing data. Three sets of remotely sensed data, LanSAT-1 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data obtained in (1975 and 1976), LanSAT-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data obtained in (1984 and 1997), and LandSAT-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) acquired in (2003 and 2015), with a time span of forty years were used in the study. One of the most common problems in the satellite images is the presence of cloud covers. In this study, the cloud cover problem is handled using a novel algorithm, which is capable of reducing the cloud coverage in the classified images significantly. This study also examines a suite of possible photogrammetry techniques applicable to detect the change in LULC. At the moment photogrammertic techniques are used to derive the ground truth for supervised classification from the high resolution aerial photos which were provided by Ordnance Survey (contract number: 240215) and global mapper for the years in (2001 and 2014). After obtaining the classified images almost free of clouds, accuracy assessment is implemented with the derived classified images using confusion matrix at some ground truth points. Eight classes (Improved grassland, Built up areas and gardens, Arable and horticulture, Broad-leaved / mixed woodland, Coniferous woodland, Oceanic seas, Standing open water and reservoir, and Mountain; heath; bog) have been classified in the chosen study area. Also, CORINE Land Cover (CLC) maps are used to study the environmental changes and to validate the obtained maps from remote sensing and photogrammetry data. On climate change, different sources of climate data were used in this research. Three rainfall datasets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Gridded Estimates of daily Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) in the study area were compared at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. The dataset were available for the operational period 1975-2015. The historically observed rainfall datasets for the study area were obtained from the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS) Land and Marine downloaded through the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC) website, which includes the rainfall and the temperature, are collected from all the weather stations in the UK in the last 40 years. Only four gauging stations were available to represent the spatial variability of rainfall within and around the study area. The monthly rainfall time series were evaluated against a dataset based on four rain gauges. These data are processed and analysed statistically to find the changes in climate of the study area in the last 40 years. The potential reciprocal effect between the LULC change and the climate change is done by finding the correlation between LUCC and the variables Rainfall and Temperature. In addition, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to study the impact of LULC change on the water system and climate.

Sustaining observations of the unsteady ocean circulation.

PubMed

Frajka-Williams, E

2014-09-28

Sustained observations of ocean properties reveal a global warming trend and rising sea levels. These changes have been documented by traditional ship-based measurements of ocean properties, whereas more recent Argo profiling floats and satellite records permit estimates of ocean changes on a near real-time basis. Through these and newer methods of observing the oceans, scientists are moving from quantifying the 'state of the ocean' to monitoring its variability, and distinguishing the physical processes bringing signals of change. In this paper, I give a brief overview of the UK contributions to the physical oceanographic observations, and the role they have played in the wider global observing systems. While temperature and salinity are the primary measurements of physical oceanography, new transbasin mooring arrays also resolve changes in ocean circulation on daily timescales. Emerging technologies permit routine observations at higher-than-ever spatial resolutions. Following this, I then give a personal perspective on the future of sustained observations. New measurement techniques promise exciting discoveries concerning the role of smaller scales and boundary processes in setting the large-scale ocean circulation and the ocean's role in climate. The challenges now facing the scientific community include sustaining critical observations in the case of funding system changes or shifts in government priorities. These long records will enable a determination of the role and response of the ocean to climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Can Winter-Active Bumblebees Survive the Cold? Assessing the Cold Tolerance of Bombus terrestris audax and the Effects of Pollen Feeding

PubMed Central

Owen, Emily L.; Bale, Jeffrey S.; Hayward, Scott A. L.

2013-01-01

There is now considerable evidence that climate change is disrupting the phenology of key pollinator species. The recently reported UK winter activity of the bumblebee Bombus terrestris brings a novel set of thermal challenges to bumblebee workers that would typically only be exposed to summer conditions. Here we assess the ability of workers to survive acute and chronic cold stress (via lower lethal temperatures and lower lethal times at 0°C), the capacity for rapid cold hardening (RCH) and the influence of diet (pollen versus nectar consumption) on supercooling points (SCP). Comparisons are made with chronic cold stress indices and SCPs in queen bumblebees. Results showed worker bees were able to survive acute temperatures likely to be experienced in a mild winter, with queens significantly more tolerant to chronic cold temperature stress. The first evidence of RCH in any Hymenoptera is shown. In addition, dietary manipulation indicated the consumption of pollen significantly increased SCP temperature. These results are discussed in the light of winter active bumblebees and climate change. PMID:24224036

Global Sea Surface Temperature and Ecosystem Change Across the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veenstra, T. J. T.; Bakker, V. B.; Sangiorgi, F.; Peterse, F.; Schouten, S.; Sluijs, A.

2016-12-01

Even though the term Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO; ca. 17 to 14 Ma) has been widely used in the literature since the early 1990's, almost no early-middle Miocene sea surface temperature (SST) proxy records have been published that support climate warming across its onset. Benthic (and diagenetically altered planktic) foram δ18O records show a decrease, suggesting (deep) ocean warming and/or Antarctic ice sheet melting. However, reliable absolute SST proxy records are absent from the tropics and very scarce in temperate and polar regions. This leaves the question if the warmth of the MMCO was truly global and how its onset relates to the widely recorded positive (Monterey) carbon isotope excursion and volcanism. Finally, it remains uncertain how marine ecosystems responded to this hypothesized warming. We present organic biomarker SST proxy records (Uk'37 and TEX86) spanning the MMCO for several locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean along a pole-to-pole transect, including Ocean Drilling Program Site 959 in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, ODP Site 643 in the Norwegian Sea, ODP Site 1007 on the Great Bahama Bank and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1352 off New Zealand. Additionally, we use marine palynology (mostly dinoflagellate cysts) to assess ecosystem change at these locations. The resulting spatial reconstruction of SST change shows that Middle Miocene warming was global. Nevertheless, the records also show distinct regional variability, including relatively large warming in the Norwegian Sea and a damped signal in the southern hemisphere, suggesting pronounced changes in ocean circulation. The onset of the MMCO was marked by prominent changes in ecological and depositional setting at the studied sites, likely also related to ocean circulation changes.

Patterns of precipitation: Fine-scale rain dynamics in the South of England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaghan, Sarah

2010-05-01

The consensus in the climate change community is that one of the (many) effects of climate change will be that the nature of rain events will change, and in all likelihood, they will become more extreme. Currently, most long-term rain rate data sets are hourly (or longer) rain accumulations, so investigating the rain events that occur for less than 0.01% (52.5 minutes) of a year is not possible. Rain datasets do exist with smaller temporal resolution, but these are either not continuous, or simply have not been in operation long enough to investigate any trends in climate change. The Chilbolton Observatory in the south of England is one of the world's most advanced meteorological radar experimental facilities, and is home to the world's largest fully steerable meteorological radar, the Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar (CAMRa). It also hosts a wide range of meteorological and atmospheric sensing instruments, including cameras, lidars, radiometers and a wide selection of different types of rain gauges. The UK atmospheric science, hydrology and Earth Observation communities use the instruments located at Chilbolton to conduct research in weather, flooding and climate. This often involves observations of meteorological phenomena operating below the current resolution of (forecasting and climate) models and work on their effective parameterisation. The Chilbolton datasets contain a continuous drop counting rain gauge time series at 10 seconds integration time, spanning from January 2001 to the present. Though the length of the time series is not sufficient to confidently identify any effects of climate change, the time resolution is sufficient to investigate the differences in the extreme values of rain events over the nine years of the dataset, characterising the inter-annual and seasonal variability. Changes in the occurrence of different rain events have also been investigated by looking at event and inter-event durations to determine if there is any change in the relative number of stratiform and convective events over the time period. Knowledge of the fine scale variability of rain (both in the spatial and temporal domains) is important for the development of accurate models for small-scale forecasting, as well as models for the implementation and operation of rain affected systems, such as microwave radio communications and flood mitigation. As the rain gauge measurements made at Chilbolton will continue for the foreseeable future, these datasets will become increasingly valuable, as they provide a "ground-truth" that can be compared with the results of climate and other models.

The Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) — A new assessment tool for evaluating the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, Jason, E-mail: jp1@tiscali.co.uk

Evaluating sustainability from EIA-based assessments has been problematic at best. This is due to the use of reductionist and qualitative approaches which is dependent upon the perspective of the assessor(s). Therefore, a more rigorous and holistic approach is required to evaluate sustainability in a more consistent way. In this paper, a matrix-based methodology in order to assess the indicated level and nature of sustainability for any project, policy, indicators, legislation, regulation, or other framework is described. The Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) is designed to evaluate the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability occurring in respect the fundamental and complexmore » geocybernetic paradigms. The GAM method is described in detail in respect to the theory behind it and the methodology. The GAM is then demonstrated using an appropriate case study — Part 1 of the UK Climate Change Act (2008) concerning carbon budgets and targets. The results indicate that the Part 1 of Act may not achieve the desired goals in contributing towards sustainable development through the stated mechanisms for carbon budgets and targets. The paper then discusses the broader context of the GAM with respect to the core themes evident in the development and application of the GAM of: sustainability science; sustainability assessment; application value of the GAM; and future research and development. - Highlights: • A new assessment tool called the Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) described. • GAM evaluates the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability. • GAM demonstrated by application to Part 1 of the UK Climate Change Act (CCA). • Part 1 of CCA has significant flaws in achieving a sustainable pathway. • GAM offers a potentially useful tool for quantitatively evaluating sustainability.« less

JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborne, T.; Gornall, J.; Hooker, J.; Williams, K.; Wiltshire, A.; Betts, R.; Wheeler, T.

2014-10-01

Studies of climate change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere have been completed without recognition of the integrated nature of the biosphere. Improved assessment of the impacts of climate change on food and water security requires the development and use of models not only representing each component but also their interactions. To meet this requirement the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model has been modified to include a generic parametrisation of annual crops. The new model, JULES-crop, is described and evaluation at global and site levels for the four globally important crops; wheat, soy bean, maize and rice is presented. JULES-crop demonstrates skill in simulating the inter-annual variations of yield for maize and soy bean at the global level, and for wheat for major spring wheat producing countries. The impact of the new parametrisation, compared to the standard configuration, on the simulation of surface heat fluxes is largely an alteration of the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes during the later part of the growing season. Further evaluation at the site level shows the model captures the seasonality of leaf area index and canopy height better than in standard JULES. However, this does not lead to an improvement in the simulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The performance of JULES-crop from both an earth system and crop yield model perspective is encouraging however, more effort is needed to develop the parameterisation of the model for specific applications. Key future model developments identified include the specification of the yield gap to enable better representation of the spatial variability in yield.

Assessing the Knowledge, Attitudes and Behaviors of Human and Animal Health Students towards Antibiotic Use and Resistance: A Pilot Cross-Sectional Study in the UK.

PubMed

Dyar, Oliver James; Hills, Holly; Seitz, Lara-Turiya; Perry, Alex; Ashiru-Oredope, Diane

2018-01-30

The Global Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance highlights the importance of training all healthcare professionals. No study has assessed patterns of students' knowledge, attitudes and practices concerning antibiotic use simultaneously across different healthcare course types. We conducted a cross-sectional multi-center survey among UK students. The survey was advertised through local survey coordinators at 25 universities. The online survey was accessible from 10th October to 17th November 2016 (before European Antibiotic Awareness Day). A total of 255 students from 25 universities participated, including students on medicine, pharmacy, nursing, physician associate, dentistry and veterinary medicine courses. Antibiotic resistance was considered to be a more important global challenge than climate change, obesity or food security ( p < 0.001). Most students (95%) believed that antibiotic resistance will be a problem for their future practice, but fewer (69%) thought that the antibiotics they will prescribe, administer or dispense will contribute to the problem. A fifth of students felt they had sufficient knowledge of antibiotic use for their future work. Our exploratory study suggests that UK human and animal healthcare students are aware of the importance of antibiotic resistance, but many still have certain misconceptions. Campaigns and improved educational efforts applying behavioral insights methodology could address these.

Modelling middle pliocene warm climates of the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Sellwood, B.W.; Kaplan, J.O.; Dowsett, H.J.

2001-01-01

The middle Pliocene warm period represents a unique time slice in which to model and understand climatic processes operating under a warm climatic regime. Palaeoclimatic model simulations, focussed on the United States of America (USA), for the middle Pliocene (ca 3 Ma) were generated using the USGS PRISM2 2?? ?? 2?? data set of boundary conditions and the UK Meteorological Office's HadAMS General Circulation Model (GCM). Model results suggest that conditions in the USA during the middle Pliocene can be characterised as annually warmer (by 2?? to 4??C), less seasonal, wetter (by a maximum of 4 to 8 mm/day) and with an absence of freezing winters over the central and southern Great Plains. A sensitivity experiment suggests that the main forcing mechanisms for surface temperature changes in near coastal areas are the imposed Pliocene sea surface temperatures (SST's). In interior regions, reduced Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ice, combined with less snow cover and a reduction in the elevation of the western cordillera of North America, generate atmospheric circulation changes and positive albedo feedbacks that raise surface temperatures. A complex set of climatic feedback mechanisms cause an enhancement of the hydrological cycle magnifying the moisture bearing westerly wind belt during the winter season (Dec., Jan., Feb.). Predictions produced by the model are in broad agreement with available geological evidence. However, the GCM appears to underestimate precipitation levels in the interior and central regions of the southern USA. Copyright: Palaeontological Association, 22 June 2001.

CEMS: Building a Cloud-Based Infrastructure to Support Climate and Environmental Data Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kershaw, P. J.; Curtis, M.; Pechorro, E.

2012-04-01

CEMS, the facility for Climate and Environmental Monitoring from Space, is a new joint collaboration between academia and industry to bring together their collective expertise to support research into climate change and provide a catalyst for growth in related Earth Observation (EO) technologies and services in the commercial sector. A recent major investment by the UK Space Agency has made possible the development of a dedicated facility at ISIC, the International Space Innovation Centre at Harwell in the UK. CEMS has a number of key elements: the provision of access to large-volume EO and climate datasets co-located with high performance computing facilities; a flexible infrastructure to support the needs of research projects in the academic community and new business opportunities for commercial companies. Expertise and tools for scientific data quality and integrity are another essential component, giving users confidence and transparency in its data, services and products. Central to the development of this infrastructure is the utilisation of cloud-based technology: multi-tenancy and the dynamic provision of resources are key characteristics to exploit in order to support the range of organisations using the facilities and the varied use cases. The hosting of processing services and applications next to the data within the CEMS facility is another important capability. With the expected exponential increase in data volumes within the climate science and EO domains it is becoming increasingly impracticable for organisations to retrieve this data over networks and provide the necessary storage. Consider for example, the factor of o20 increase in data volumes expected for the ESA Sentinel missions over the equivalent Envisat instruments. We explore the options for the provision of a hybrid community/private cloud looking at offerings from the commercial sector and developments in the Open Source community. Building on this virtualisation layer, a further core services tier will support and serve applications as part of a service oriented architecture. We consider the constituent services in this layer to support access to the data, data processing and the orchestration of workflows.

The influence of organisational climate on care of patients with schizophrenia: a qualitative analysis of health care professionals' views.

PubMed

Sutton, Jane; Family, Hannah E; Scott, Jennifer A; Gage, Heather; Taylor, Denise A

2016-04-01

Organizational climate relates to how employees perceive and describe the characteristics of their employing organization. It has been found to have an impact on healthcare professionals' and patients' experiences of healthcare (e.g. job satisfaction, patient satisfaction), as well as organizational outcomes (e.g. employee productivity). This research used organizational theory to explore dynamics between health care professionals (pharmacists, doctors and nurses) in mental health outpatients' services for patients taking clozapine, and the perceived influence on patient care. Seven clozapine clinics (from one NHS mental health Trust in the UK) which provided care for people with treatment resistant schizophrenia. This study used qualitative methods to identify organizational climate factors such as deep structures, micro-climates and climates of conflict that might inhibit change and affect patient care. Using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis, semistructured interviews were conducted with 10 healthcare professionals working in the clinics to explore their experiences of working in these clinics and the NHS mental health Trust the clinics were part of. Health Care Professionals' perceptions of the care of patients with treatment resistant schizophrenia. Three superordinate themes emerged from the data: philosophy of care, need for change and role ambiguity. Participants found it difficult to articulate what a philosophy of care was and in spite of expressing the need for change in the way the clinics were run, could not see how 'changing things would work'. There was considerable role ambiguity with some 'blurring of the boundaries between roles'. Factors associated with organizational climate (role conflict; job satisfaction) were inhibiting team working and preventing staff from identifying the patients' health requirements and care delivery through innovation in skill mix. There were mixed attitudes towards the pharmacist's inclusion as a team member. Our findings suggest deficiencies within the clinics that may be manifestations of the wider culture of the NHS. The implications for mental health outpatient clinics are that local initiatives are crucial to the implementation of recovery models; clear guidance should be provided on the skill mix required in clozapine clinics and interprofessional learning should be encouraged to reduce role conflict.

Effects of the urban heat island on the phenology of Odonata in London, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villalobos-Jiménez, Giovanna; Hassall, Christopher

2017-07-01

Urbanisation is one of the major drivers of ecosystem change and includes increased temperatures in cities leading to an urban heat island (UHI). This study quantified the phenological response of odonates across London, UK, from 1990 to 2012, using a database of 1,031,277 historical sightings. The ordinal flight dates of each species were used to calculate the leading edge, middle and trailing edge of the flight period (P5, P50 and P95, respectively). The results suggest that the phenology of odonates is affected by the UHI only at a community level: no significant changes in the P5 or P50 of the flight period were found, although the P95 shows a mean advance of 4.13 days compared to rural areas, thus suggesting a contraction of the flight period in urban areas. However, only one individual species ( Sympetrum striolatum) exhibited an advance in the P95 of the flight period in urban areas compared to rural areas. On the other hand, climate change (minimum temperature) had a much stronger impact on the phenology of odonates at the community level with a significant advance of 6.9 days °C-1 in the P5 of the flight period, 3.1 days °C-1 in the P50 and 3.3 days °C-1 in the P95 flight date. Similarly, a significant advance in P5 was found in 7 of the 15 species tested in response to minimum temperature, and 2 species showed a significant advance in P50 in response to minimum temperature, but no species showed a shift in the P95 flight date due to minimum temperature. As shown in previous studies, life history influences the phenological response of odonates, with spring species and those species lacking an egg diapause being the most responsive to increased temperatures, although summer species and species with obligate egg diapause also respond to the UHI by advancing the P95 by 3.8 and 4.5 days, respectively, compared to rural areas, thus contracting the flight period. The present study shows that the UHI has negligible impacts on emergence patterns of odonates compared to climate change, which may result from the capacity of aquatic habitats to buffer the microclimatic conditions of the surrounding terrestrial habitats. We conclude by highlighting the importance of climate change on freshwater habitats over the impacts of the UHI.

Large-Scale Innovation and Change in UK Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Stephen

2013-01-01

This paper reflects on challenges universities face as they respond to change. It reviews current theories and models of change management, discusses why universities are particularly difficult environments in which to achieve large scale, lasting change and reports on a recent attempt by the UK JISC to enable a range of UK universities to employ…

Understanding the structure of Exmoor's peatland ecosystems using laser-scanning technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luscombe, D. J.; Anderson, K.; Wetherelt, A.; Grand-Clement, E.; Le-Feuvre, N.; Smith, D.; Brazier, R. E.

2012-04-01

Upland blanket peatlands in the UK are of high conservation value and in an intact state, provide important landscape services, such as carbon sequestration and flood attenuation. The drainage of many such wetlands for agricultural reclamation has resulted in changes to upland blanket mire topography, ecology, hydrological processes and carbon fluxes. There is a need for spatially explicit monitoring approaches at peatland sites in the UK as although there has been a national effort to restore drained peat uplands, baseline and post restoration monitoring of changes to ecosystem structure and function is largely absent. Climate change policy and the emerging carbon markets also necessitate the need for enhanced system understanding to inform carbon targets and understand the impacts of restoration. Exmoor is the focus of this research because many areas of upland peat have, in the past, been extensively drained through government "moorland reclamation" programs. A large restoration project funded by South West Water is currently underway in association with Exmoor National Park, The Environment Agency and Natural England. Exmoor also provides an analogue for other westerly peatlands in the British Isles in terms of its climate, ecology and drainage characteristics. Our approach employed airborne LiDAR data gathered by the Environment Agency Geomatics Group coupled with Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) surveys. LiDAR data were processed to produce digital surface models (DSM) of the peatland surface at a 0.5m resolution. These data were further interrogated to separate vegetation structures and geomorphic features such as man-made drainage channels which have damaged the peatland. Over small extents the LiDAR derived DSM surface was then compared to a TLS derived DSM to examine the ability of these models to describe fine scale vegetation and geomorphic structure, which could then be extrapolated to larger spatial extents. Exploration of the data has shown that ecosystem structure can be described at a fine resolution (>10 million measurements, resolution

Identifying fine sediment sources to alleviate flood risk caused by fine sediments through catchment connectivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twohig, Sarah; Pattison, Ian; Sander, Graham

2017-04-01

Fine sediment poses a significant threat to UK river systems in terms of vegetation, aquatic habitats and morphology. Deposition of fine sediment onto the river bed reduces channel capacity resulting in decreased volume to contain high flow events. Once the in channel problem has been identified managers are under pressure to sustainably mitigate flood risk. With climate change and land use adaptations increasing future pressures on river catchments it is important to consider the connectivity of fine sediment throughout the river catchment and its influence on channel capacity, particularly in systems experiencing long term aggradation. Fine sediment erosion is a continuing concern in the River Eye, Leicestershire. The predominately rural catchment has a history of flooding within the town of Melton Mowbray. Fine sediment from agricultural fields has been identified as a major contributor of sediment delivery into the channel. Current mitigation measures are not sustainable or successful in preventing the continuum of sediment throughout the catchment. Identifying the potential sources and connections of fine sediment would provide insight into targeted catchment management. 'Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling Analysis Platforms' (SCIMAP) is a tool often used by UK catchment managers to identify potential sources and routes of sediment within a catchment. SCIMAP is a risk based model that combines hydrological (rainfall) and geomorphic controls (slope, land cover) to identify the risk of fine sediment being transported from source into the channel. A desktop version of SCIMAP was run for the River Eye at a catchment scale using 5m terrain, rainfall and land cover data. A series of SCIMAP model runs were conducted changing individual parameters to determine the sensitivity of the model. Climate Change prediction data for the catchment was used to identify potential areas of future connectivity and erosion risk for catchment managers. The results have been subjected to field validation as part of a wider research project which provides an indication of the robustness of widespread models as effective management tools.

The fissured East Yorkshire Chalk, UK - a 'sustainable' aquifer under stress ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliot, T.; Younger, P. L.; Chadha, D. S.

2003-04-01

The fissured Chalk is an important regional aquifer in East Yorkshire, UK, with a large potential for water supply to the Humberside region and especially the City of Hull. It has been exploited since the end of the 19th Century, but although there are more than a dozen long-established pumping wells in the Chalk these currently abstract only 7% of the total recharge the aquifer receives. The classical notion of ‘safe aquifer yield' equates the quantity of groundwater available for abstraction with the long-term natural recharge to the aquifer. An incautious hydrogeologist might be lead to conclude that this is a secure, under-developed resource. In this case study, the aquifer is shown to be already displaying early symptoms of hydrological stress (eg drought effects, overexploitation), and hydrogeochemical indicators point to further effects of anthropogenic pollution impacts in the unconfined aquifer and both recent and ancient saline intrusion in its semi-confined and confined zones. The hydrochemical evidence clearly reveals the importance both of recent aquifer management decisions and palaeohydrogeology in determining the distribution of water qualities within the aquifer. Waters encountered in the confined aquifer are identified as complex (and potentially dynamic) mixtures between recently recharged waters, modern seawater intrusion, and ancient seawater which entered the aquifer many millennia ago. Elliot, T. Younger, P.L. &Chadha, D.S. (1998) The future sustainability of groundwater resources in East Yorkshire - past and present perspectives. In H. Wheater and C. Kirby (Eds.) Hydrology in a Changing Environment, Vol. II, Proc. British Hydrological Society (BHS) International Conference, 6-10 July 1998, Exeter, UK. pp.21-31. Elliot, T., Chadha, D.S. &Younger, P.L. (2001) Water Quality Impacts and Palaeohydrogeology in the East Yorkshire Chalk Aquifer, UK. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 34(4): 385-398. Younger, P.L., Teutsch, G., Custodio, E., Elliot, T., Manzano, M. &Sauter, M. (2002) Assessments of the sensitivity to climate change of flow and natural water quality in four major carbonate aquifers of Europe. In Hiscock, K.M, Rivett, M.O., Davison, R.M. (Eds.), Sustainable Groundwater Development. Geological Society Special Publication No 193, The Geological Society, London, UK. pp.303-323.

Using Spacecraft in Climate and Natural Disasters Registration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokol, Galyna; Kotlov, Vladyslav; Khorischenko, Oleksandr; Davydova, Angelica; Heti, Kristina

2017-04-01

Since the beginning of the space age it become possible the global monitoring of the planet Earth's state. Since the second half of the 20th century there are observations of the atmosphere's state and the Earth's climate have been held by a spacecraft. Also become possible large-scale monitoring of climate change. An attempt was made to define the role of infrasound in the interaction between a space weather, climate and biosphere of the Earth using spacecraft sensors recording. Many countries are involving in the detection of earthquakes, predicting volcanic eruptions and floods and also the monitoring of irregular solar activity. Understanding this leads to the conclusion that international cooperation for the protection of humanity is not only a political priority in the international arena, but also a question of the quality of living standards of any state. Commonly known following monitoring systems: Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC), FUEGO program (Spain), Sentinel-Asia program (Japan) and International aerospace system for monitoring of global phenomena (MAKCM, Russia). The Disaster Monitoring Constellation for International Imaging (DMCii) consists of a number of remote sensing satellites constructed by Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd (SSTL) and operated for the Algerian, Nigerian, Turkish, British and Chinese governments by DMC International Imaging. The DMC has monitored the effects and aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami (December 2004), Hurricane Katrina (August 2005), and many other floods, fires and disasters. The individual DMC satellites are: 1. First generation satellites (AlSAT-1 - Algeria, BilSAT - Turkey, NigeriaSAT-1 - Nigeria, UK-DMC - United Kingdom); 2. Second generation satellites (Beijing - China, UK-DMC 2 - United Kingdom, Deimos-1 - Spanish commercial, NigeriaSAT-2 and NigeriaSAT-X). The sun-synchronous orbits of these satellites are coordinated so that the satellites follow each other around an orbital plane, ascending north over the Equator at 10:15 am local time (and 10:30 am local time for Beijing-1). Some of these satellites also include other imaging payloads and experimental payloads: onboard hardware-based image compression (on BilSAT), a GPS reflectometry experiment and onboard Internet router (on the UK-DMC satellite). The DMC satellites are notable for communicating with their ground stations using the Internet Protocol for payload data transfer and command and control, so extending the Internet into space, and allowing experiments with the Interplanetary Internet to be carried out. Many of the technologies used in the design of the DMC satellites, including Internet Protocol use, were tested in space beforehand on SSTL's earlier UoSAT-12 satellite. Currently, there is a great need to establish combining space and ground-based observation systems that will accurately capture key climate variables on a scale from regional to global and stable functioning for decades to determine climate variability and trends. With the help of modern computer systems were calculated moving of infrasonic waves in the atmosphere. This data can be used to predict the weather.

Effects of Different Teaching Styles on the Teacher Behaviours that Influence Motivational Climate and Pupils' Motivation in Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Kevin; Kingston, Kieran; Sproule, John

2005-01-01

This study investigated the effects of different teaching styles on the teaching behaviours that influence motivational climate and pupils' cognitive and affective responses in physical education. Four (two male, two female) initial teacher education (ITE) students and 92 pupils (47 boys, 45 girls), from two schools in the UK, participated in the…

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

Formalization and separation: A systematic basis for interpreting approaches to summarizing science for climate policy.

PubMed

Sundqvist, Göran; Bohlin, Ingemar; Hermansen, Erlend A T; Yearley, Steven

2015-06-01

In studies of environmental issues, the question of how to establish a productive interplay between science and policy is widely debated, especially in relation to climate change. The aim of this article is to advance this discussion and contribute to a better understanding of how science is summarized for policy purposes by bringing together two academic discussions that usually take place in parallel: the question of how to deal with formalization (structuring the procedures for assessing and summarizing research, e.g. by protocols) and separation (maintaining a boundary between science and policy in processes of synthesizing science for policy). Combining the two dimensions, we draw a diagram onto which different initiatives can be mapped. A high degree of formalization and separation are key components of the canonical image of scientific practice. Influential Science and Technology Studies analysts, however, are well known for their critiques of attempts at separation and formalization. Three examples that summarize research for policy purposes are presented and mapped onto the diagram: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the European Union's Science for Environment Policy initiative, and the UK Committee on Climate Change. These examples bring out salient differences concerning how formalization and separation are dealt with. Discussing the space opened up by the diagram, as well as the limitations of the attraction to its endpoints, we argue that policy analyses, including much Science and Technology Studies work, are in need of a more nuanced understanding of the two crucial dimensions of formalization and separation. Accordingly, two analytical claims are presented, concerning trajectories, how organizations represented in the diagram move over time, and mismatches, how organizations fail to handle the two dimensions well in practice.

Simulating soil C stability with mechanistic systems models: a multisite comparison of measured fractions and modelled pools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Andy; Schipanski, Meagan; Sherrod, Lucretia; Ma, Liwang; Ahuja, Lajpat; McNamara, Niall; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian

2016-04-01

Agriculture, covering more than 30% of global land area, has an exciting opportunity to help combat climate change by effectively managing its soil to promote increased C sequestration. Further, newly sequestered soil carbon (C) through agriculture needs to be stored in more stable forms in order to have a lasting impact on reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While land uses in different climates and soils require different management strategies, the fundamental mechanisms that regulate C sequestration and stabilisation remain the same. These mechanisms are used by a number of different systems models to simulate C dynamics, and thus assess the impacts of change in management or climate. To evaluate the accuracy of these model simulations, our research uses a multidirectional approach to compare C stocks of physicochemical soil fractions collected at two long-term agricultural sites. Carbon stocks for a number of soil fractions were measured at two sites (Lincoln, UK; Colorado, USA) over 8 and 12 years, respectively. Both sites represent managed agricultural land but have notably different climates and levels of disturbance. The measured soil fractions act as proxies for varying degrees of stability, with C contained within these fractions relatable to the C simulated within the soil pools of mechanistic systems models1. Using stable isotope techniques at the UK site, specific turnover times of C within the different fractions were determined and compared with those simulated in the pools of 3 different models of varying complexity (RothC, DayCent and RZWQM2). Further, C dynamics and N-mineralisation rates of the measured fractions at the US site were assessed and compared to results of the same three models. The UK site saw a significant increase in C stocks within the most stable fractions, with topsoil (0-30cm) sequestration rates of just over 0.3 tC ha-1 yr-1 after only 8 years. Further, the sum of all fractions reported C sequestration rates of nearly 1.0 tC ha-1 yr-1. At the US site, however, topsoil C sequestration was less consistent noting considerable variation over the 12 years of measured data. Both sites showed noteworthy discrepancies when model-simulated C was compared with measured C. While all three models were able to simulate the bulk C stocks within reasonable degrees of uncertainty, the accuracy broke down considerably when this bulk soil was split into fractions/pools. Using the data collected and accounting for the differences in model structure, we present potential next steps in model development as well as the variables that should be measured when aiming to reduce the uncertainties inherent in mechanistic systems models. References 1 - Zimmermann et al., 2007. Measured soil organic matter fractions can be related to pools in the RothC model. European Journal of Soil Science, 58:658-667.

Nurturing transdisciplinary research - lessons from live experiments in prioritising and supporting novel risk science (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, J.; Armstrong, C.; Barclay, J.; Moores, A.; Whitaker, D.

2013-12-01

The benefits of specialization over the last 150 years have meant that science has evolved within several distinct disciplines, such as physical, social or environmental. These have generated their own cultures, languages, agendas, institutions, measures of success and cohorts of suitably branded scientists. However, we increasingly see that society and the environment are exposed to many complex, interdependent and rapidly changing risks - not only from natural hazards, but also those associated with fast expanding and ageing populations, highly interconnected and interdependent economies, rapid climate change, and increasingly limited resources. Risks derived from such interacting drivers commonly generate non-linear effects or repercussions and future risks may be very different to those of today; significantly, they span many traditional science disciplines. We thus need to have a fresh look at transdisciplinary risk science, bring in novel ideas and new blood. But what are the best practical ways of sowing the seeds and fertilizing such approaches? The presentation describes novel practical steps to achieve this, all related to building and resourcing transdisciplinary research which incorporates natural hazard science within the UK over the last 5 years. These comprise instruments to prioritise science gaps and provide funding for transdisciplinary research by a) Academic research funders - the Research Councils UK (RCUK) Risk Research Network and current research programmes; b) Government and non-governmental research funders - the Living with Environmental Change Initiative, and the UK Flooding and coastal erosion risk management research strategy - and the UK Collaborative for Development Science sponsored Disasters Research Group; and c) Business funding - through integrated risk modelling for the insurance industry. Whilst young, all these initiatives are healthy and seek to build a portfolio of small scale initiatives that will breed success and develop critical mass. The common threats, such as alienation by conservative philosophies, and stimulants, such as champions who recognise the value of transdisciplinary science, are illustrated and discussed. Given the importance of developing transdisciplinary science the generic lessons from these, and other, ';live experiments' should not be undervalued.

Heating with Biomass in the United Kingdom: Lessons from New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, E. J. S.; Coulson, G.; Butt, E. W.; Forster, P. M.; Jones, J. M.; Williams, A.

2017-03-01

In this study we review the current status of residential solid fuel (RSF) use in the UK and compare it with New Zealand, which has had severe wintertime air quality issues for many years that is directly attributable to domestic wood burning in heating stoves. Results showed that RSF contributed to more than 40 μg m-3 PM10 and 10 μg m-3 BC in some suburban locations of New Zealand in 2006, with significant air quality and climate impacts. Models predict RSF consumption in New Zealand to decrease slightly from 7 PJ to 6 PJ between 1990 and 2030, whereas consumption in the UK increases by a factor of 14. Emissions are highest from heating stoves and fireplaces, and their calculated contribution to radiative forcing in the UK increases by 23% between 2010 and 2030, with black carbon accounting for more than three quarters of the total warming effect. By 2030, the residential sector accounts for 44% of total BC emissions in the UK and far exceeds emissions from the traffic sector. Finally, a unique bottom-up emissions inventory was produced for both countries using the latest national survey and census data for the year 2013/14. Fuel- and technology-specific emissions factors were compared between multiple inventories including GAINS, the IPCC, the EMEP/EEA and the NAEI. In the UK, it was found that wood consumption in stoves was within 30% of the GAINS inventory, but consumption in fireplaces was substantially higher and fossil fuel consumption is more than twice the GAINS estimate. As a result, emissions were generally a factor of 2-3 higher for biomass and 2-6 higher for coal. In New Zealand, coal and lignite consumption in stoves is within 24% of the GAINS inventory estimate, but wood consumption is more than 7 times the GAINS estimate. As a result, emissions were generally a factor of 1-2 higher for coal and several times higher for wood. The results of this study indicate that emissions from residential heating stoves and fireplaces may be underestimated in climate models. Emissions are increasing rapidly in the UK which may result in severe wintertime air quality reductions, as seen in New Zealand, and contribute to climate warming unless controls are implemented such as the Ecodesign emissions limits.

[The changes of alpha 2-plasmin inhibitor, and notably urokinase activities in blood measured by synthetic chromogenic substrates S-2444 after urokinase administration].

PubMed

Itoh, Y; Tsuji, K; Tanaka, N; Yamada, M; Nakanishi, M; Ishihara, M; Kobayashi, M

1983-01-01

Thrombolytic therapy with Urokinase (UK) has often been successful but it is very difficult to determine the effective dosage of UK. It is reported that after UK administration, plasmin fibrinolytic activity was immediately inhibited by alpha 2-Plasmin inhibitor (alpha 2-PI). In this study, we used UK on patients with myoma to prevent the occurrence of thrombosis after operation and the initial decrease in alpha 2-PI activities following UK administration was investigated to determine the minimum effective dosage of UK required to suppress alpha 2-PI. An attempt was also made to measure UK activity in blood by means of chromogenic substrate S-2444, and in some cases by administering 60,000 I.U. UK, alpha 1-Antitrypsin (alpha 1-AT), alpha 2-Macroglobulin (alpha 2-M), Antithrombin III (AT III) and Plasminogen (Plg) were measured at the same time. The results were as follows: 1) By the drip infusion method. In all doses, alpha 2-PI and UK activity showed no remarkable change. 2) By the one shot method. a) A decrease in alpha 2-PI was observed following both 48,000 and 60,000 I.U. UK administration. It was noted that in the case of 48,000 I.U. UK, alpha 2-PI showed the lowest level, 60% of the pre-administration level. b) UK activity showed a gradual increase in the case of 60,000 I.U. UK only and large changes in the other cases. c) alpha 1-AT, alpha 2-M, AT III and Plg produced no remarkable changes. This indicated that the effective dosage of UK for suppressing alpha 2-PI was at least 48,000 I.U. UK with the one shot method, and alpha 2-PI is a reliable indicator of the effectiveness of UK therapy.

A scenario framework to explore the future migration and adaptation in deltas: A multi-scale and participatory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebede, Abiy S.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hill, Chris T.; Hutton, Craig W.; Kay, Susan; Lawn, Jon; Lazar, Attila N.; Whitehead, Paul W.

2017-04-01

Coastal deltas are home for over 500 million people globally, and they have been identified as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments during the 21st century. They are susceptible to multiple climatic (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, change in temperature and precipitation) and socio-economic (e.g., human-induced subsidence, population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth) drivers of change. These drivers also operate at multiple scales, ranging from local to global and short- to long-term. This highlights the complex challenges deltas face in terms of both their long-term sustainability as well as the well-being of their residents and the health of ecosystems that support the livelihood of large (often very poor) population under uncertain changing conditions. A holistic understanding of these challenges and the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes is central for devising robust adaptation policies. Scenario analysis has long been identified as a strategic management tool to explore future climate change and its impacts for supporting robust decision-making under uncertainty. This work presents the overall scenario framework, methodology, and processes adopted for the development of scenarios in the DECCMA* project. DECCMA is analysing the future of three deltas in South Asia and West Africa: (i) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Volta delta (Ghana). This includes comparisons between these three deltas. Hence, the scenario framework comprises a multi-scale hybrid approach, with six levels of scenario considerations: (i) global (climate change, e.g., sea-level rise, temperature change; and socio-economic assumptions, e.g., population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth); (ii) regional catchments (e.g., river flow modelling), (iii) regional seas (e.g., fisheries modelling), (iv) regional politics (e.g., transboundary disputes), (v) national (e.g., socio-economic factors), and (vi) delta-scale (e.g., future adaptation and migration policies) scenarios. The framework includes and combines expert-based and participatory approaches and provides improved specification of the role of scenarios to analyse the future state of adaptation and migration across the three deltas. It facilitates the development of appropriate and consistent endogenous and exogenous scenario futures: (i) at the delta-scale, (ii) across all deltas, and (iii) with wider climate change, environmental change, and adaptation & migration research. Key words: Coastal deltas, sea-level rise, migration and adaptation, multi-scale scenarios, participatory approach *DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Thermal sensation and climate: a comparison of UTCI and PET thresholds in different climates.

PubMed

Pantavou, Katerina; Lykoudis, Spyridon; Nikolopoulou, Marialena; Tsiros, Ioannis X

2018-06-07

The influence of physiological acclimatization and psychological adaptation on thermal perception is well documented and has revealed the importance of thermal experience and expectation in the evaluation of environmental stimuli. Seasonal patterns of thermal perception have been studied, and calibrated thermal indices' scales have been proposed to obtain meaningful interpretations of thermal sensation indices in different climate regions. The current work attempts to quantify the contribution of climate to the long-term thermal adaptation by examining the relationship between climate normal annual air temperature (1971-2000) and such climate-calibrated thermal indices' assessment scales. The thermal sensation ranges of two thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature Index (PET), were calibrated for three warm temperate climate contexts (Cfa, Cfb, Csa), against the subjective evaluation of the thermal environment indicated by interviewees during field surveys conducted at seven European cities: Athens (GR), Thessaloniki (GR), Milan (IT), Fribourg (CH), Kassel (DE), Cambridge (UK), and Sheffield (UK), under the same research protocol. Then, calibrated scales for other climate contexts were added from the literature, and the relationship between the respective scales' thresholds and climate normal annual air temperature was examined. To maintain the maximum possible comparability, three methods were applied for the calibration, namely linear, ordinal, and probit regression. The results indicated that the calibrated UTCI and PET thresholds increase with the climate normal annual air temperature of the survey city. To investigate further climates, we also included in the analysis results of previous studies presenting only thresholds for neutral thermal sensation. The average increase of the respective thresholds in the case of neutral thermal sensation was about 0.6 °C for each 1 °C increase of the normal annual air temperature for both indices, statistically significant only for PET though.

Coupled C, N and P Controls on Photosynthesis, Primary Production and Decomposition across a Land Use Intensification Gradient and Implications for Land Atmosphere C Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinsch, S.; Emmett, B.; Cosby, J.; Mercado, L. M.; Smart, S.; Glanville, H.; Alberola, M. B.; Clark, D.; Robinson, E.; Jones, D.

2015-12-01

The coupling of C, N and P cycles has rarely been studied through the air- land-water continuum. This is essential if we are to enhance land-atmosphere models to account for N and P limitations. It is also important for developing integrated catchment management solutions to deliver improved water quality combined with a wide range of other ecosystem functions and services.We present results from a project which is part of the interdisciplinary pan-UK NERC Macronutrient Cycles Programme (macronutrient-cycles.ouce.ox.ac.uk/). Our aim is to quantify how coupled C, N & P cycles change across a land use intensification gradient from arable to grass, woodland and bog ecosystems and identify the implications for land-atmosphere C exchange. We focus on three key processes; photosynthesis, annual net primary productivity (ANPP) and decomposition and explore their consequences for biodiversity. Other aspects of the project track delivery to, and transformations within, the freshwater and coastal systems. When we explore relationships between C, N and P, results indicate all habitat types fall on a single land use intensification gradient. Stoichiometry suggests plant productivity is primarily N limited. P limitation occurs rarely but at all levels of intensification. Soil priming shows our soils are primarily C limited and, surprisingly, soil acidity provides one of the most powerful single predictors of processes and ecosystem services perhaps as it is a good integrator of many soil properties. Incorporating this knowledge into the UK land-atmosphere model JULES will be used to improve ANPP projections. These will then be used as inputs into a plant species model called MULTIMOVE to enable future scenarios of climate change, land use and air pollution on habitat suitability for > 1400 plant species to be explored. The enhanced Jules model will ensure both N and P limitations on C fluxes from above and below-ground are incorporated into future UK scenario applications.

Coupled C, N and P controls on photosynthesis, primary production and decomposition across a land use intensification gradient and implications for land atmosphere C exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinsch, Sabine; Glanville, Helen; Smart, Simon; Jones, Davey; Mercado, Lina; Blanes-Alberola, Mamen; Cosby, Jack; Emmett, Bridget

2016-04-01

The coupling of C, N and P cycles has rarely been studied through the air- land-water continuum. This is essential if we are to enhance land-atmosphere models to account for N and P limitations. It is also important for developing integrated catchment management solutions to deliver improved water quality combined with a wide range of other ecosystem functions and services. We present results from a project which is part of the interdisciplinary pan-UK NERC Macronutrient Cycles Programme (macronutrient-cycles.ouce.ox.ac.uk/). Our aim is to quantify how coupled C, N & P cycles change across a land use intensification gradient from arable to grass, woodland and bog ecosystems and identify the implications for land-atmosphere C exchange. We focus on three key processes; photosynthesis, annual net primary productivity and decomposition and explore their consequences for biodiversity. Other aspects of the project track delivery to, and transformations within, the freshwater and coastal systems. When we explore relationships between C, N and P, results indicate all habitat types fall on a single land use intensification gradient. Stoichiometry suggests plant productivity is primarily N limited. P limitation occurs rarely but at all levels of intensification. Soil priming shows our soils are primarily C limited and, surprisingly, soil acidity provides one of the most powerful single predictors of processes and ecosystem services perhaps as it is a good integrator of many soil properties. Incorporating this knowledge into the UK land-atmosphere model JULES will improve aNPP projections. These are then being used as inputs into a plant species model called MULTIMOVE to enable future scenarios of climate change, land use and air pollution on habitat suitability for > 1400 plant species to be explored. The enhanced Jules model will ensure both N and P limitations on C fluxes from above and below-ground are incorporated into future UK scenario applications.

Modelling coastal processes and morphological changes of the UK east coast in support of coastal decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaorong; Leonardi, Nicoletta; Brown, Jennifer; Plater, Andy

2017-04-01

The coastline of Eastern England is home to about one quarter of the UK's coastal habitats, including intertidal salt marshes, tidal flats and sand dunes. These geomorphic features are of great importance to the local wildlife, global biodiversity, marine environment and human society and economy. Due to sea-level rise and the occurrence of extreme weather conditions, the coastline of Eastern England is under high risk of erosion and recession, which could lead to tidal inundation of sites such as the RSPB Minsmere Reserve and power generation infrastructure at Sizewell. This research responds to the need for sustainable shoreline management plans of the UK east coast through sensitivity studies at the Dunwich-Sizewell area, Suffolk, UK. Particular interest is on the long-term morphodynamic response of the study area to possible environmental variations associated with global climate change. Key coastal processes, i.e. current, waves and sediment transport, and morphological evolution are studied using a process-based numerical model under the following scenarios: current mean sea level + calm wave conditions, current mean sea level + storms, sea level rise + calm wave conditions, and sea level rise + storms, all with a 'do nothing' management plan which allows the coastal environment to exist and respond dynamically. As a further aspect of this research, rules will be generalized for reduced-complexity, system-based modelling. Alternative management plans, including 'managed realignment' and 'advance the line', are also investigated in this research under the same environmental forcing scenarios, for the purposes of protection of infrastructure of national importance and conservation of wetland habitats. Both 'hard' and 'soft' engineering options, such as groynes and beach nourishment respectively, are considered. A more ecohydrological option which utilizes aquatic plant communities for wave energy dissipation and sediment trapping is also studied. The last option requires the numerical models to be modified based on understandings obtained through analysis of on-site observations and laboratory measurements.

Glacial-Interglacial, Orbital and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability for the Last Glacial Cycle at Shackleton Site U1385 based on Dinoflagellate Cysts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datema, M.

2015-12-01

The Shackleton Site (IODP Expedition 339 Site U1385), located off the West-Portuguese Margin, preserves a continuous high-fidelity record of millennial-scale climate variability for the last several glacial cycles (~1.4 Myr) that can be correlated precisely to patterns observed in polar ice cores. In addition, rapid delivery of terrestrial material to the deep-sea environment allows the correlation of these marine records to European terrestrial climate records. This unique marine-ice-terrestrial linkage makes the Shackleton Site the ideal reference section for studying Quaternary abrupt climate change. The main objective of studying Site U1385 is to establish a marine reference section of Pleistocene climate change. We generated (sub)millennial-scale (~600 year interval) dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblage records from Shackleton Site U1385 (IODP Expedition 339) to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and productivity/upwelling over the last 152 kyrs. In addition, our approach allows for detailed land-sea correlations, because we also counted assemblages of pollen and spores from higher plants. Dinocyst SST and upwelling proxies, as well as warm/cold pollen proxies from Site U1385 show glacial-interglacial, orbital and stadial-interstadial climate variability and correlate very well to Uk'37, planktic foraminifer δ18O and Ca/Ti proxies of previously drilled Shackleton Sites and Greenland Ice Core δ18O. The palynological proxies capture (almost) all Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last glacial cycle, also before ~70 ka, where millennial-scale variability is overprinted by precession. We compare the performance and results of the palynology of Site U1385 to proxies of previously drilled Shackleton Sites and conclude that palynology strengthens the potential of this site to form a multi-proxy reference section for millennial scale climate variability across the Pleistocene-Holocene. Finally, we will present a long-term paleoceanographic perspective down to ~150 ka.

Flood rich periods, flood poor periods and the need to look beyond instrumental records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, S. N.

2009-04-01

For many, the later 20th Century and early 21st Century has become synonymous with a growing experience of flood risk. Scientists, politicians and the media have ascribed this to changing climate and there are good hypothetical reasons for human-induced climate change to be impacting upon the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events. In this paper, I will interrogate this claim more carefully, using the UK's instrumental records of river flow, most of which begin after 1960, but a smaller number of which extend back into the 19th Century. Those records that extent back to the 19th Century suggest that major flood events tend to cluster into periods that are relatively flood rich and relatively flood poor, most notably in larger drainage basins: i.e. there is a clear scale issue. The timing (inset, duration, termination) of these periods varies systematically by region although there is a marked flood poor period for much of the UK during the late 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. It follows that at least some of the current experience of flooding, including why it has taken so many policy-makers and flood victims by surprise, may reflect a transition from a flood poor to a flood rich period, exacerbated by possible climate change impacts. These results point to the need to rethink how we think through what drives flood risk. First, it points to the need to look at some of the fundamental oscillations in core atmospheric drivers, such as the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, in explaining what drives flood risk. Consideration of precipitation, as opposed to river flow, is more advanced in this respect, and those of us working in rivers need to engage much more thoughtfully with atmospheric scientists. Second, it points to the severe inadequacies in using records of only a few decades duration. Even where these are pooled across adjacent sub-catchments, there is likely to be a severe bias in the estimation of flood return periods when we look at instrumental records alone. The key conclusion becomes the value of bringing into wide use records of river flow acquired using other methodologies that can capture the pre-instrumental record.

Restoration of shallow peatlands on Exmoor (UK): initial effects on water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grand-Clement, Emilie; Luscombe, David; Anderson, Karen; Gatis, Naomi; Ashe, Josie; Brazier, Richard

2014-05-01

Historical and recent anthropogenic pressure has had dramatic effects on peatlands throughout the UK. In the South West, drainage for agricultural reclamation and peat cutting since the 19th century has progressively altered the hydrological behaviour of the peatlands of Exmoor and Dartmoor National Parks. Lower water table levels have caused increased oxidation, erosion and vegetation change, further affecting the storage of carbon and the provision of other ecosystem services (i.e. supply of drinking water, biodiversity). Moreover, the location of these peatlands at the southernmost margin of the UK peatlands' geographical extent makes them extremely vulnerable to the predicted effects of climate change, i.e. increased temperature and change in rainfall pattern. An extensive programme of peatland restoration is currently underway on Exmoor. Drainage ditches were blocked to reinstate the hydrological behaviour, reduce the outflow of dissolved organic carbon and, in doing so, improve other ecosystem services delivered by peatlands. This paper will report on the water quality monitoring results from a small headwater catchment in Exmoor. We will show results comparing changes in Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) losses and colour pre- and post-restoration. Our experimental approach uses event-based water quality monitoring across three drainage ditches that are representative of the different scales of damage in the area. Samples were taken back to the laboratory and analysed for DOC and colour, using UV spectrophotometry and UV-vis spectrometry respectively. DOC loads were calculated using discharge for each drain. Overall, DOC concentrations ranged between 3 and 30mg/L. Both pre and post- restoration datasets presented high seasonal variability, with higher concentrations measured from June to September. No significant change in DOC concentrations was observed in the 6 months after restoration. It is hypothesised that the effects of restoration could be hidden by inter-annual variations in total and mean rainfall over the period monitored. However, significant changes in water quantity, such as a reduction in storm flow following restoration, means that, overall, DOC loads have decreased at the scale of the catchment. These results show the need for an integrated approach in catchment management, considering all trade-offs between ecosystem services before assessing the effects of restoration.

Changes needed to medicine in the UK before senior UK-trained doctors, working outside the UK, will return: questionnaire surveys undertaken between 2004 and 2015.

PubMed

Lambert, Trevor W; Smith, Fay; Goldacre, Michael J

2017-12-01

To report the changes to UK medicine which doctors who have emigrated tell us would increase their likelihood of returning to a career in UK medicine. Questionnaire survey. UK-trained medical graduates. Questionnaires were sent 11 years after graduation to 7158 doctors who qualified in 1993 and 1996 in the UK: 4763 questionnaires were returned. Questionnaires were sent 17 and 19 years after graduation to the same cohorts: 4554 questionnaires were returned. Comments from doctors working abroad about changes needed to UK medicine before they would return. Eleven years after graduation, 290 (6%) of respondents were working in medicine abroad; 277 (6%) were doing so 17/19 years after graduation. Eleven years after graduation, 53% of doctors working abroad indicated that they did not intend to return, and 71% did so 17/19 years after graduation. These respondents reported a number of changes which would need to be made to UK medicine in order to increase the likelihood of them returning. The most frequently mentioned changes cited concerned 'politics/management/funding', 'pay/pension', 'posts/security/opportunities', 'working conditions/hours', and 'factors outside medicine'. Policy attention to factors including funding, pay, management and particularly the clinical-political interface, working hours, and work-life balance may pay dividends for all, both in terms of persuading some established doctors to return and, perhaps more importantly, encouraging other, younger doctors to believe that the UK and the National Health Service can offer them a satisfying and rewarding career.

The Feasibility of Avoiding Future Climate Impacts: Results from the AVOID Programmes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, J. A.; Warren, R.; Arnell, N.; Buckle, S.

2014-12-01

The AVOID programme and its successor, AVOID2, have focused on answering three core questions: how do we characterise potentially dangerous climate change and impacts, which emissions pathways can avoid at least some of these impacts, and how feasible are the future reductions needed to significantly deviate from a business-as-usual future emissions pathway. The first AVOID project succeeded in providing the UK Government with evidence to inform its position on climate change. A key part of the work involved developing a range of global emissions pathways and estimating and understanding the corresponding global impacts. This made use of a combination of complex general circulation models, simple climate models, pattern-scaling and state-of-the art impacts models. The results characterise the range of avoidable impacts across the globe in several key sectors including river and coastal flooding, cooling and heating energy demand, crop productivity and aspects of biodiversity. The avoided impacts between a scenario compatible with a 4ºC global warming and one with a 2ºC global warming were found to be highly sector dependent and avoided fractions typically ranged between 20% and 70%. A further key aspect was characterising the magnitude of the uncertainty involved, which is found to be very large in some impact sectors although the avoided fraction appears a more robust metric. The AVOID2 programme began in 2014 and will provide results in the run up to the Paris CoP in 2015. This includes new post-IPCC 5th assessment evidence to inform the long-term climate goal, a more comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty ranges of feasible emission pathways compatible with the long-term goal and enhanced estimates of global impacts using the latest generation of impact models and scenarios.

The sensitivity of peat soil and peatland vegetation to drought: release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) on rewetting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritson, Jonathan; Graham, Nigel; Templeton, Michael; Freeman, Christopher; Clark, Joanna

2015-04-01

Organic rich peat soils are a major store of carbon worldwide. Their existence is predicated on high year-round water tables which create an anoxic environment, thus limiting decay, and also to the recalcitrance of plant litter (dead plant material) commonly found in peatland areas. Climate change threatens the stability of peat soils by altering the biogeochemical cycles which control plant decay, lowering water tables so that oxic degradation can occur and by changing habitat niches such that less recalcitrant species can thrive in peatlands. One of the major fluxes of carbon from peatlands is through dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface waters. As peatland areas in the UK are often used as source waters for drinking water supply this presents a problem to water utilities as DOC must be effectively removed to limit colour, odour and the formation of potentially carcinogenic by-products on disinfection. Changes in catchment vegetation may occur due to climate change, nutrient deposition and changing bioclimatic envelopes. How different peatland vegetation contribute to DOC flux and how this may change in the future is therefore of interest. A six week laboratory simulation was performed on typical peatland litter (Sphagnum spp., Calluna vulgaris, Molinea caerulea, Juncus effusus) and a peat soil collected from Exmoor National Park, UK. The simulation monitored DOC flux from the decaying litter/soil and considered the impact of different drought severities using the 50th, 25th, 10th and 5th percentiles of the mean July/August monthly rainfall for Exmoor. On rewetting following the drought, all sources produced significantly different amounts of DOC (Tukey HSD p<0.05) in the order Molinia>Juncus>Calluna>Sphagnum>peat. The source also had a significant (ANOVA p<0.001) effect on coagulation removal efficiency, a typical method of removing DOC during drinking water treatment, with Juncus DOC proving the easiest to remove whilst Sphagnum DOC was the most difficult. Sphagnum DOC had the lowest ratio of humic-like to protein-like fluorescence, which is indicative of DOC which is poorly removed by coagulation. An interactive effect was noted between DOC source and the drought treatment which was explored further using a one-way ANOVA with a Holm-Šidák correction. This suggested peat will produce significantly more DOC when affected by drought (p=0.010), possibly explained by increased oxygenation engaging the 'enzymatic latch' mechanism. A similar analysis was performed on the interaction between drought and DOC source for the specific UV absorbance at 254nm (SUVA) value (a measure of aromaticity). This suggested that Molinea caerulea produces DOC of significantly (p=0.001) higher aromaticity following periods of drought. Comparisons between drought and DOC source factors suggest the source in more important than climatic conditions of decay which is consistent with our previously published findings. These results have implications for marginal peatlands which may be at risk from increased water table drawdown in the future as climate changes and where Molinea caerulea, typically a fen species, is encroaching on bog communities.

The prospects for solar energy use in industry within the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, C. W.

1980-01-01

An assessment of the potential for solar energy applications within U.K. industry has been made, using a disaggregated breakdown of energy consumption in the eight industrial sectors by fuel and end-use, and taking account of solar collector performance under U.K. climatic conditions. Solar contributions of 35 per cent of process boiler heat up to a temperature of 80 C and 10 per cent in the 80-120 C range are considered feasible, along with 35 per cent of non-industrial water heating. After employing energy conservation techniques currently more cost-effective than solar systems, an additional 3.5 per cent of U.K. primary energy expended in manufacturing industry (excluding iron and steel production) could be contributed by solar. This represents 1 per cent of the U.K. national primary energy demand.

Heat protection behaviors and positive affect about heat during the 2013 heat wave in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Lefevre, Carmen E; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Taylor, Andrea L; Dessai, Suraje; Kovats, Sari; Fischhoff, Baruch

2015-03-01

Heat waves pose serious health risks, and are expected to become more frequent, longer lasting, and more intense in the future under a changing climate. Yet, people in the UK seem to feel positive when thinking about hot weather. According to research on the affect heuristic, any positive or negative emotions evoked by potentially risky experiences may be used as cues to inform concerns about risk protection. If so, then their positive feelings toward hot weather might lead UK residents to lower intentions to adopt heat protection behaviors. Here, we examine the relationships between heat protection behaviors during the July 2013 UK heat wave and self-reports of having heard heat protection recommendations, feeling positive affect about heat, seeing heat protection measures as effective, and trusting the organizations making those recommendations. Responses to a national survey revealed that 55.1% of participants had heard heat protection recommendations during the 2013 UK heat wave. Those who reported having heard recommendations also indicated having implemented more heat protection behaviors, perceiving heat protection behaviors as more effective, feeling more positive about heat, and intending to implement more protection behaviors in future hot summers. Mediation analyses suggested that heat protection recommendations may motivate heat protection behaviors by increasing their perceived effectiveness, but undermine their implementation by evoking positive affect about hot weather. We discuss our findings in the context of the affect heuristic and its implications for heat protection communications. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Implications of plant acclimation for future climate-carbon cycle feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercado, Lina; Kattge, Jens; Cox, Peter; Sitch, Stephen; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lloyd, Jon; Huntingford, Chris

2010-05-01

The response of land ecosystems to climate change and associated feedbacks are a key uncertainty in future climate prediction (Friedlingstein et al. 2006). However global models generally do not account for the acclimation of plant physiological processes to increased temperatures. Here we conduct a first global sensitivity study whereby we modify the Joint UK land Environment Simulator (JULES) to account for temperature acclimation of two main photosynthetic parameters, Vcmax and Jmax (Kattge and Knorr 2007) and plant respiration (Atkin and Tjoelker 2003). The model is then applied over the 21st Century within the IMOGEN framework (Huntingford et al. 2004). Model simulations will provide new and improved projections of biogeochemical cycling, forest resilience, and thus more accurate projections of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and the future evolution of the Earth System. Friedlingstein P, Cox PM, Betts R et al. (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353. Kattge J and Knorr W (2007): Temperature acclimation in a biochemical model of photosynthesis: a reanalysis of data from 36 species. Plant, Cell and Environment 30, 1176-1190 Atkin O.K and Tjoelker, M. G. (2003): Thermal acclimation and the dynamic response of plant respiration to temperature. Trends in Plant Science 8 (7), 343-351 Huntingford C, et al. (2004) Using a GCM analogue model to investigate the potential for Amazonian forest dieback. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 177-185.

How Population Growth and Land-Use Change Increased Fluvial Dissolved Organic Carbon Fluxes over 130 Years in the Thames Basin (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noacco, V.; Howden, N. J. K.; Wagener, T.; Worrall, F.; Burt, T. P.

2015-12-01

This study investigates drivers of changing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export in the UK's River Thames basin between 1884 and 2014. Specifically, we consider how the impacts of land-use change and population growth drive increases in DOC concentrations and fluxes at the basin outlet. Such key factors for the long-term increase in riverine DOC in temperate, mineral-soil catchments are still widely debated. First, we estimate soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the Thames basin for the period. Second, we convert SOC losses due to land-use change into DOC loss to surface waters through runoff. Finally, we combine this input of DOC with an export coefficient model that considers catchment drivers for DOC release to the river. SOC stocks for each year are calculated from a large database of typical SOC levels for land-uses present in the Thames basin and are combined with literature values of transition times for SOC to adjust to a new level following land-use change. We also account for climate change effects on SOC stock due to temperature increases, which reduces SOC stocks as soil organic matter turnover rates increase. Our work shows that the major driver for DOC increase to the river Thames was the rise in the catchment population, where the increase in urban area was used as a proxy. This highlights the role of sewage effluent in contributing to the rise of fluvial DOC, even though wastewater treatments were in place since the early 1990s. Land-use change had significant but short-term impacts in the increase in DOC, mainly due to massive conversion of permanent grassland into arable land during World War II.

Fast-track extreme event attribution: How fast can we disentangle thermodynamic (forced) and dynamic (internal) contributions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2016-04-01

Within the last decade, extreme weather event attribution has emerged as a new field of science and garnered increasing attention from the wider scientific community and the public. Numerous methods have been put forward to determine the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to individual extreme weather events. So far nearly all such analyses were done months after an event has happened. First, we present our newly established method which can assess the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) of a severe weather event due to an external driver in real-time. The method builds on a large ensemble of atmosphere-only GCM/RCM simulations forced by seasonal forecast sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Taking the UK 2013/14 winter floods as an example, we demonstrate that the change in risk for heavy rainfall during the England floods due to anthropogenic climate change is of similar magnitude using either observed or seasonal forecast SSTs. While FAR is assumed to be independent from event-specific dynamic contributions due to anomalous circulation patterns as a first approximation, the risk of an event to occur under current conditions is clearly a function of the state of the atmosphere. The shorter the event, the more it is a result of chaotic internal weather variability. Hence we are interested to (1) attribute the event to thermodynamic and dynamic causes and to (2) establish a sensible time-scale for which we can make a useful and potentially robust attribution statement with regard to event-specific dynamics. Having tested the dynamic response of our model to SST conditions in January 2014, we find that observed SSTs are required to establish a discernible link between anomalous ocean temperatures and the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in general and the UK in particular. However, for extreme events occurring under strongly anomalous SST patterns, associated with known low-frequency climate modes such as El Nino or La Nina, forecast SSTs can provide sufficient guidance to determine the dynamic contribution to the event on the basis of monthly mean values. No such link can be made (North Atlantic/Western Europe region) for shorter time-scales, unless the observed state of the circulation is taken as reference for the model analysis (e.g. Christidis et al. 2014). We present results from our most recent attribution analysis for the December 2015 UK floods (Storm Desmond and Eva), during which we find a robust teleconnection link between Pacific SSTs and North Atlantic Jetstream anomalies. This is true for both experiments, with forecast and observed SSTs. We propose a fast and simple analysis method based on the comparison of current climatological circulation patterns with actual and natural conditions. Alternative methods are discussed and analysed regarding their potential for fast-track attribution of the role of dynamics. Also, we briefly revisit the issue of internal vs forced dynamic contributions.

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

Cities and “budget-based” management of the energy-water-climate nexus: Case studies in transportation policy, infrastructure systems, and urban utility risk management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperling, Joshua B.; Ramaswami, Anu

This article reviews city case studies to inform a framework for developing urban infrastructure design standards and policy instruments that together aim to pursue energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation through city carbon budgets and water use efficiency and climate risk adaptation through city water budgets. Here, this article also proposes combining carbon and water budgeting at the city-scale for achieving successful coupled city carbon and water budget (CCCWB) programs. Under a CCCWB program, key actors including local governments, infrastructure designers/operators, and households would be assigned a GHG emissions and water 'budget' and be required by state or federal levelsmore » to keep within this budget through the use of flexibility mechanisms, incentive programs, and sanctions. Multiple incentives and cross-scale governance arrangements would be tied to energy-water systems integration, resource-efficient transportation and infrastructure development, and effective monitoring and management of energy use, emissions, climate risks to, and security of energy-water-transport-food and other critical systems. As a first step to promote strategies for CCCWB development, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings to existing budget-based programs in the UK and US, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of interventions for staying within a budget, and governance. To date, the majority of climate action or sustainability plans by cities, while mentioning climate impacts as a premise for the plan, do not address these impacts in the plan. They focus primarily on GHG mitigation while ignoring resource depletion challenges and energy-climate-water linkages, whereby water supplies can begin to limit energy production and energy shifts to mitigate climate change can limit water availability. Coupled carbon-water budget plans, programs, and policies - described in this study- may address these concerns as well as the emerging trends that will exacerbate these problems - e.g., including population growth, climatic changes, and emerging policy choices that are not coordinated. Cities and 'Budget-Based' Management of the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: Case Studies to Inform Strategy for Integrated Performance- and Incentive-Based Design and Policy Instruments.« less

Cities and “budget-based” management of the energy-water-climate nexus: Case studies in transportation policy, infrastructure systems, and urban utility risk management

DOE PAGES

Sperling, Joshua B.; Ramaswami, Anu

2017-11-03

This article reviews city case studies to inform a framework for developing urban infrastructure design standards and policy instruments that together aim to pursue energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation through city carbon budgets and water use efficiency and climate risk adaptation through city water budgets. Here, this article also proposes combining carbon and water budgeting at the city-scale for achieving successful coupled city carbon and water budget (CCCWB) programs. Under a CCCWB program, key actors including local governments, infrastructure designers/operators, and households would be assigned a GHG emissions and water 'budget' and be required by state or federal levelsmore » to keep within this budget through the use of flexibility mechanisms, incentive programs, and sanctions. Multiple incentives and cross-scale governance arrangements would be tied to energy-water systems integration, resource-efficient transportation and infrastructure development, and effective monitoring and management of energy use, emissions, climate risks to, and security of energy-water-transport-food and other critical systems. As a first step to promote strategies for CCCWB development, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings to existing budget-based programs in the UK and US, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of interventions for staying within a budget, and governance. To date, the majority of climate action or sustainability plans by cities, while mentioning climate impacts as a premise for the plan, do not address these impacts in the plan. They focus primarily on GHG mitigation while ignoring resource depletion challenges and energy-climate-water linkages, whereby water supplies can begin to limit energy production and energy shifts to mitigate climate change can limit water availability. Coupled carbon-water budget plans, programs, and policies - described in this study- may address these concerns as well as the emerging trends that will exacerbate these problems - e.g., including population growth, climatic changes, and emerging policy choices that are not coordinated. Cities and 'Budget-Based' Management of the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: Case Studies to Inform Strategy for Integrated Performance- and Incentive-Based Design and Policy Instruments.« less

Regional versus local drivers of water quality in the Windermere catchment, Lake District, UK: the dominant influence of wastewater pollution over the past 200 years.

PubMed

Moorhouse, Heather L; McGowan, Suzanne; Taranu, Zofia E; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Leavitt, Peter R; Jones, Matthew D; Barker, Philip; Brayshaw, Susan A

2018-05-10

Freshwater ecosystems are threatened by multiple anthropogenic stressors acting over different spatial and temporal scales, resulting in toxic algal blooms, reduced water quality, and hypoxia. However, while catchment characteristics act as a 'filter' modifying lake response to disturbance, little is known of the relative importance of different drivers and possible differentiation in the response of upland remote lakes in comparison to lowland, impacted lakes. Moreover, many studies have focussed on single lakes rather than looking at responses across a set of individual, yet connected lake basins. Here we used sedimentary algal pigments as an index of changes in primary producer assemblages over the last ~200 years in a northern temperate watershed consisting of 11 upland and lowland lakes within the Lake District, UK, to test our hypotheses about landscape drivers. Specifically, we expected that the magnitude of change in phototrophic assemblages would be greatest in lowland rather than upland lakes due to more intensive human activities in the watersheds of the former (agriculture, urbanization). Regional parameters, such as climate dynamics, would be the predominant factors regulating lake primary producers in remote upland lakes and thus, synchronize the dynamic of primary producer assemblages in these basins. We found broad support for the hypotheses pertaining to lowland sites as wastewater treatment was the main predictor of changes to primary producer assemblages in lowland lakes. In contrast, upland headwaters responded weakly to variation in atmospheric temperature, and dynamics in primary producers across upland lakes were asynchronous. Collectively, these findings show that nutrient inputs from point sources overwhelm climatic controls of algae and nuisance cyanobacteria, but highlights that large-scale stressors do not always initiate coherent regional lake response. Further, a lake's position in its landscape, its connectivity and proximity to point nutrients are important determinants of changes in production and composition of phototrophic assemblages. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Broadcasting environmental knowledge: Open University & BBC collaborations serving massive global audiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandon, M. A.; Smith, J.; Garrow, K. H.; Law, A.

2013-12-01

The UK Open University has a long history of working with broadcast media - indeed before it first formed over 40 years ago it was proposed to be a "University of the Air ". Originally the University made its own television programmes that were directly connected with teaching. They were usually recordings of academics giving lectures that were broadcast late at night. Over recent times we have moved into developing co-productions with mainstream broadcast media specifically designed to be of general educational interest to UK and worldwide audiences. These include both high impact one-off programmes such as Are we changing planet Earth?, multiple international award winning series such as Frozen Planet, and World Service radio such as Earth Reporters. These programmes have had global audiences; in some cases of tens of millions. Whilst we have only worked using clear scientific evidence and expertise, we have co-produced media which small sections of the general public could consider controversial. For example, in Are we changing planet Earth? the case was presented pre IPCC AR4 for anthropogenic climate change. The final episode of Frozen Planet "On thin ice" presented evidence of how the polar climate is changing and likely future global impacts. It created a large and occasionally hostile international media impact long before broadcast. This continued after broadcast in some media but we believe it stopped because the science presented was robust within the current literature. Based around broadcasting, we used a communication strategy based on our personal experience over the last decade along with our institutional experience going back 40 years. For example our outreach include social media, newspapers, radio and podcasts to speak about underpinning science. We use Twitter during actual broadcasts to circulate links to journal articles and provide context around the science presented on screen. Backed up by a large public outreach campaign at science fairs, public talks, and online resource development, our efforts reached hundreds of thousands of actively interested people in addition to the broadcast viewers and listeners.

Boscombe Down, United Kingdom. Limited Surface Observations Climatic Summary ’LISOCS.’ Parts A-F.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-06

OBSERVATIONS" .3-TAr CLIMATIC SUMMARY "LISOCS" BOSCOMBE DOWN UK MSC *037460 N 51 10 W 001 44 ELEV 407 FT ESDM W PARTS A - F HOURS SUMMARIZED: 0000...8217 𔃼.4 K 1.7 IS.? 1 35.9 15.9 3’. q’ 31.9 5 6. 1 16.6 36.6 11.5 GI 167) UC 1 22.6 27.9 Z9 .1 30.9 32.1 12. 5 11.6 35.8a 36.0 16.0 36.11 16.0 36. 3 l6.7...USAFETAC FROM HOURLY OwlStRR3IONS AIR WEATI4FR SFPRVICE/MAC STATION NUM6: 0746 1 ’TATOE* NAM: B0,C 0Mt DOWN UK P10)r1 OE ()[ COPD : 77-86 M0N)H: JUt

Short-lived high-amplitude cooling on Svalbard during the Dark Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bilt, Willem; D`Andrea, William; Bakke, Jostein; Balascio, Nicholas; Werner, Johannes; Hoek, Wim

2016-04-01

As the paradigm of a stable Holocene climate has shifted, an increasing number of high-resolution proxy timeseries reveal dynamic conditions, characterized by high-amplitude climate shifts. Some of these events occurred during historical times and allow us to study the interaction between environmental and cultural change, providing valuable lessons for the near future. These include the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP) between 300 and 800 AD, a period marked by political upheaval and climate instability that remains poorly investigated. Here, we present two temperature reconstructions from the High Arctic Svalbard Archipelago. To this end, we applied the established alkenone-based UK37 paleothermometer on sediments from two lakes on western Spitsbergen, Lake Hajeren and Lake Hakluyt. The Arctic is presently warming twice as fast as the global average and proxy data as well as model simulations suggest that this amplified response is characteristic for regional climate. The Arctic therefore provides a uniquely sensitive environment to study relatively modest climate shifts, like the DACP, that may not be adequately captured at lower-latitude sites. Owing to undisturbed sediments, a high sampling resolution and robust chronological control, the presented reconstructions resolve the attendant sub-centennial-scale climate shifts. Our findings suggest that the DACP marks a cold spell within the cool Neoglacial period, which started some 4 ka BP on Svalbard. Close investigation reveals a distinct temperature minimum around 500 AD that is reproduced in another alkenone-based temperature reconstruction from a nearby lake. At ± 1.75 °C, cooling underlines the sensitivity of Arctic climate as well as the magnitude of the DACP.

Migration in Deltas: An Integrated Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.; Hutton, Craig W.; Lazar, Attila; Adger, W. Neil; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Vincent, Katharine; Rahman, Munsur; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Sugata, Hazra; Ghosh, Tuhin; Codjoe, Sam; Appeaning-Addo, Kwasi

2017-04-01

Deltas and low-lying coastal regions have long been perceived as vulnerable to global sea-level rise, with the potential for mass displacement of exposed populations. The assumption of mass displacement of populations in deltas requires a comprehensive reassessment in the light of present and future migration in deltas, including the potential role of adaptation to influence these decisions. At present, deltas are subject to multiple drivers of environmental change and often have high population densities as they are accessible and productive ecosystems. Climate change, catchment management, subsidence and land cover change drive environmental change across all deltas. Populations in deltas are also highly mobile, with significant urbanization trends and the growth of large cities and mega-cities within or adjacent to deltas across Asia and Africa. Such migration is driven primarily by economic opportunity, yet environmental change in general, and climate change in particular, are likely to play an increasing direct and indirect role in future migration trends. The policy challenges centre on the role of migration within regional adaptation strategies to climate change; the protection of vulnerable populations; and the future of urban settlements within deltas. This paper reviews current knowledge on migration and adaptation to environmental change to discern specific issues pertinent to delta regions. It develops a new integrated methodology to assess present and future migration in deltas using the Volta delta in Ghana, Mahanadi delta in India and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta across India and Bangladesh. The integrated method focuses on: biophysical changes and spatial distribution of vulnerability; demographic changes and migration decision-making using multiple methods and data; macro-economic trends and scenarios in the deltas; and the policies and governance structures that constrain and enable adaptation. The analysis is facilitated by a range of consistent scenarios from global to delta scales, developed in consultation with major stakeholders. Initial results suggest that migration decision-making strongly interacts with diverse measures for adaptation of land, water and agricultural management. A key normative challenge is to identify the parameters of successful migration and adaptation across delta regions, to inform policy analysis and formulation. Key words: Deltas, sea-level rise, migration and adaptation Acknowledgement: DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Understanding and quantifying greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions: the UK GHG Emissions and Feedback Programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthiesen, Stephan; Palmer, Paul; Watson, Andrew; Williams, Mathew

2016-04-01

We give an overview over the structure, objectives, and methods of the UK-based Greenhouse Gases Emissions and Feedback Programme. The overarching objective of this research programme is to deliver improved GHG inventories and predictions for the UK, and for the globe at a regional scale. To address this objective, the Programme has developed a comprehensive, multi-year and interlinked measurement and data analysis programme, focussing on the major GHGs carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The Programme integrates three UK research consortia with complementary objectives, focussing on observation and modelling in the atmosphere, the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere: GAUGE (Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions) will produce robust estimates of the UK GHG budget, using new and existing atmospheric measurement networks and modelling activities at a range of scales. It integrates inter-calibrated information from ground-based, airborne, ferry-borne, balloon-borne, and space-borne sensors, including new sensor technology. The GREENHOUSE (Generating Regional Emissions Estimates with a Novel Hierarchy of Observations and Upscaled Simulation Experiments) project aims to understand the spatio-temporal patterns of biogenic GHG emissions in the UK's landscape of managed and semi-managed ecosystems. It uses existing UK field data and several targeted new measurement campaigns to build regional GHG inventories and improve the capabilities of land surface models. RAGNARoCC (Radiatively active gases from the North Atlantic Region and Climate Change) is an oceanographic project to investigate the air-sea fluxes of GHGs in the North Atlantic region. Through dedicated research cruises as well as data collection from ships of opportunity, it develops a comprehensive budget of natural and anthropogenic components of the carbon cycle in the North Atlantic and a better understanding of why the air-sea fluxes of CO2 vary regionally, seasonally and multi-annually. Integration activities link these three projects to foster knowledge exchange across different scales, methods and sub-disciplines, both within the Programme and with the wider research community. The three projects are integrated to improve our understanding of greenhouse gases across domains and scales. The observational components lay the foundation of new measurement infrastructure that will deliver beyond the lifetime of this Programme. Through the development of robust methods to reduce uncertainties in GHG emissions estimates, the Programme supports regulatory efforts to monitor emissions trends and the efficacy of reduction strategies.

Changes needed to medicine in the UK before senior UK-trained doctors, working outside the UK, will return: questionnaire surveys undertaken between 2004 and 2015

PubMed Central

Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael J

2017-01-01

Objective To report the changes to UK medicine which doctors who have emigrated tell us would increase their likelihood of returning to a career in UK medicine. Design Questionnaire survey. Setting UK-trained medical graduates. Participants Questionnaires were sent 11 years after graduation to 7158 doctors who qualified in 1993 and 1996 in the UK: 4763 questionnaires were returned. Questionnaires were sent 17 and 19 years after graduation to the same cohorts: 4554 questionnaires were returned. Main outcome measures Comments from doctors working abroad about changes needed to UK medicine before they would return. Results Eleven years after graduation, 290 (6%) of respondents were working in medicine abroad; 277 (6%) were doing so 17/19 years after graduation. Eleven years after graduation, 53% of doctors working abroad indicated that they did not intend to return, and 71% did so 17/19 years after graduation. These respondents reported a number of changes which would need to be made to UK medicine in order to increase the likelihood of them returning. The most frequently mentioned changes cited concerned ‘politics/management/funding’, ‘pay/pension’, ‘posts/security/opportunities’, ‘working conditions/hours’, and ‘factors outside medicine’. Conclusions Policy attention to factors including funding, pay, management and particularly the clinical–political interface, working hours, and work–life balance may pay dividends for all, both in terms of persuading some established doctors to return and, perhaps more importantly, encouraging other, younger doctors to believe that the UK and the National Health Service can offer them a satisfying and rewarding career. PMID:29230305

Investigation of the climatic extremes influence on the humane adaptive capacity by mass spectrometric analysis of exhaled breath condensate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryabokon, Anna; Larina, Irina; Kononikhin, Alexey; Starodubtceva, Nataliia; Popov, Igor; Nikolaev, Eugene; Varfolomeev, Sergey

Global climate change, which causes abnormal fluctuations in temperature and rainfall, has adverse effects on human health. Particularly people suffer with cardiovascular and respiratory system disease. Our research was concentrated on the changes in the regulation and adaptation systems of human organism related to hyperthermia and polluted air influence. Healthy individuals with the age from 22 to 45 years were isolated during 30 days in the ground based experimental facility located at Institute of medico-biological problems RAS (Moscow, Russia). In the ground based facility artificially climatic conditions of August, 2010 in Moscow were created. Exhaled breath condensate was collected before and after isolation by R-Tube collector, freeze dried, treated by trypsin and analyzed by nanoflow LC-MS/MS with a 7-Tesla LTQ-FT Ultra mass spectrometer (Thermo Electron, Bremen, Germany). Database search was performed using Mascot Server 2.2 software (Matrix Science, London, UK). Investigation of exhaled breath condensate (EBC) collected from participants of the 30 days isolation with hyper thermic and polluted air climate conditions was performed. After isolation reduction of the protein number was observed. Loss endothelial C receptor precursor - the main physiological anticoagulant - correlate with the clinical data of physicians to increase the propensity to thrombosis. Also COP9 signalosome protein, positive regulator of ubiquitin was identified in all EBC samples before isolation and was not detected for more than a half of donors after isolation. This phenomena may be due to violation of ubiquitin protection system of the cells from harmful proteins. During isolation the air was cleared from microdisperse particles.

What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the ``arrival constraint'' hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodenough, Anne E.; Hart, Adam G.; Elliot, Simon L.

2011-01-01

Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher ( Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits ( Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.

What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the "arrival constraint" hypothesis.

PubMed

Goodenough, Anne E; Hart, Adam G; Elliot, Simon L

2011-01-01

Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.

First Spaceborne GNSS-Reflectometry Observations of Hurricanes From the UK TechDemoSat-1 Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foti, Giuseppe; Gommenginger, Christine; Srokosz, Meric

2017-12-01

We present the first examples of Global Navigation Satellite Systems-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) observations of hurricanes using spaceborne data from the UK TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) mission. We confirm that GNSS-R signals can detect ocean condition changes in very high near-surface ocean wind associated with hurricanes. TDS-1 GNSS-R reflections were collocated with International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) hurricane data, MetOp ASCAT A/B scatterometer winds, and two reanalysis products. Clear variations of GNSS-R reflected power (σ0) are observed as reflections travel through hurricanes, in some cases up to and through the eye wall. The GNSS-R reflected power is tentatively inverted to estimate wind speed using the TDS-1 baseline wind retrieval algorithm developed for low to moderate winds. Despite this, TDS-1 GNSS-R winds through the hurricanes show closer agreement with IBTrACS estimates than winds provided by scatterometers and reanalyses. GNSS-R wind profiles show realistic spatial patterns and sharp gradients that are consistent with expected structures around the eye of tropical cyclones.

Assessing the Knowledge, Attitudes and Behaviors of Human and Animal Health Students towards Antibiotic Use and Resistance: A Pilot Cross-Sectional Study in the UK

PubMed Central

Hills, Holly; Seitz, Lara-Turiya; Perry, Alex

2018-01-01

The Global Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance highlights the importance of training all healthcare professionals. No study has assessed patterns of students’ knowledge, attitudes and practices concerning antibiotic use simultaneously across different healthcare course types. We conducted a cross-sectional multi-center survey among UK students. The survey was advertised through local survey coordinators at 25 universities. The online survey was accessible from 10th October to 17th November 2016 (before European Antibiotic Awareness Day). A total of 255 students from 25 universities participated, including students on medicine, pharmacy, nursing, physician associate, dentistry and veterinary medicine courses. Antibiotic resistance was considered to be a more important global challenge than climate change, obesity or food security (p < 0.001). Most students (95%) believed that antibiotic resistance will be a problem for their future practice, but fewer (69%) thought that the antibiotics they will prescribe, administer or dispense will contribute to the problem. A fifth of students felt they had sufficient knowledge of antibiotic use for their future work. Our exploratory study suggests that UK human and animal healthcare students are aware of the importance of antibiotic resistance, but many still have certain misconceptions. Campaigns and improved educational efforts applying behavioral insights methodology could address these. PMID:29385687

Root length densities of UK wheat and oilseed rape crops with implications for water capture and yield

PubMed Central

White, Charlotte A.; Sylvester-Bradley, Roger; Berry, Peter M.

2015-01-01

Root length density (RLD) was measured to 1 m depth for 17 commercial crops of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and 40 crops of winter oilseed rape [Brassica napus; oilseed rape (OSR)] grown in the UK between 2004 and 2013. Taking the critical RLD (cRLD) for water capture as 1cm cm–3, RLDs appeared inadequate for full water capture on average below a depth of 0.32 m for winter wheat and below 0.45 m for OSR. These depths compare unfavourably (for wheat) with average depths of ‘full capture’ of 0.86 m and 0.48 m, respectively, determined for three wheat crops and one OSR crop studied in the 1970s and 1980s, and treated as references here. A simple model of water uptake and yield indicated that these shortfalls in wheat and OSR rooting compared with the reference data might be associated with shortfalls of up to 3.5 t ha–1 and 1.2 t ha–1, respectively, in grain yields under water-limited conditions, as increasingly occur through climate change. Coupled with decreased summer rainfall, poor rooting of modern arable crops could explain much of the yield stagnation that has been observed on UK farms since the 1990s. Methods of monitoring and improving rooting under commercial conditions are reviewed and discussed. PMID:25750427

On the relative role of fire and rainfall in determining vegetation patterns in tropical savannas: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Fisher, Rosie

2010-05-01

Tropical savannas cover 18% of the world's land surface and are amongst the most productive terrestrial systems in the world. They comprise 15% of the total terrestrial carbon stock, with an estimated mean net primary productivity (NPP) of 7.2 tCha-1yr-1 or two thirds of NPP in tropical forests. Tropical savannas are the most frequently burnt biome, with fire return intervals in highly productive areas being typically 1-2 years. Fires shape vegetation species composition, tree to grass ratios and nutrient redistribution, as well as the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of trace gases, momentum and radiative energy. Tropical savannas are a major source of emissions, contributing 38 % of total annual CO2 from biomass burning, 30% CO, 19 % CH4 and 59 % NOx. Climatically, they occur in regions subject to a strongly seasonal ‘wet-dry' regime, usually under monsoonal control from the movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. In general, rainfall during the prior wet season(s) determines the amount of grass fuel available for burning while the length of the dry season influences fuel moisture content. Rainfall in tropical savannas exhibits high inter-annual variability, and under future climate change, is projected to change significantly in much of Africa, South America and northern Australia. Process-based simulation models of fire-vegetation dynamics and feedbacks are critical for determining the impacts of wildfires under projected future climate change on i) ecosystem structure and function, and ii) emissions of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. A new mechanistic global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally and southern Africa, both as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa, while coupled to the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model. Recently, SPIFTIRE has been coupled to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, which simulates global vegetation dynamics as part of the new land surface scheme JULES (Joint UK Environment Simulator) within the QUEST Earth System Model (http://www.quest-esm.ac.uk/). This study forms part of on-going work to further improve and test the ability of JULES to accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle and land-atmosphere exchanges under different climates. Using the JULES (ED-SPITFIRE) model driven by observed climate (1901-2002), and focusing on large-scale rainfall gradients in the tropical savannas of west Africa, the Northern Territory (Australia) and central-southern Brazil, this study assesses: i) simulated versus observed vegetation dynamics and distributions, and ii) the relative importance of fire versus rainfall in determining vegetation patterns. A sensitivity analysis approach was used.

Hydrodynamic Influences on Multiproxy-based Paleoclimate Reconstructions from Marine Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausin Gonzalez, B.; Magill, C.; Wenk, P.; Haugh, G.; McIntyre, C.; Haghipour, N.; Hodell, D. A.; Eglinton, T. I.

2017-12-01

Multiproxy approaches, including those based on the abundance and composition of sedimentary organic matter at both the bulk (total organic carbon; TOC) and molecular (e.g., alkenone-derived Uk'37) level, are increasingly applied in investigations of past climate variability. Constraining of short-term and abrupt climate changes requires the establishment of accurate chronostratigraphies. For the last glacial to the present, a single age-depth model is typically constructed from radiocarbon ages of planktonic foraminifera and then applied to all proxy records derived from the same sediment core. Here, we develop independent, high-resolution 14C chronologies for planktonic foraminifera, TOC, and alkenones for a sediment core retrieved from the so-called "Shackleton sites" in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. We observe 14C age offsets between these sedimentary components of up to several thousand years within the same sediment layer, with TOC and alkenones exhibiting older ages than corresponding foraminiferal carbonate. This asynchroneity suggests that application of planktic foraminifera-based chronostratigraphies to other proxy carriers (e.g., TOC and alkenones) may lead to spurious interpretation of sedimentary records. In order to further explore the influence of lateral transport processes on organic matter signatures and ages, we performed down-core, grain size-specific OC 14C analyses on selected sediment horizons. Results indicate strong interdependence between 14C age of OC and sediment grain size, underlying strong hydrodynamic controls on OC age. Furthermore, the magnitude of these temporal offsets varies over time in concert with changes in the strength of the Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW), implying that OC [proxy] signatures are influenced by non-local inputs. Such influences co-vary with ocean and climate changes, such as Heinrinch Event 1, the Younger Dryas, and those corresponding to deposition of Sapropel 1 in the Mediterranean Sea (ca. 8 ka BP). Our findings suggest an interplay between past climate and ocean change, hydrodynamic forcing, and the (a)synchroneity of multiproxy records, and highlight the importance of developing independent, proxy-specific chronostratigraphies to accurately decipher past millennial- and centennial-scale climate variability.

Re-assessing the flood risk in Scotland.

PubMed

Black, Andrew R; Burns, John C

2002-07-22

This paper presents a review of changes in flood risk estimation on Scottish rivers resulting from re-analysis of flood records or from the application of new methods. The review arises at a time when flood damages have received recent prominence through the occurrence of a number of extreme floods in Scotland, and when the possible impacts of climate change on flood risk are receiving considerable attention. An analysis of the nine longest available peaks-over-threshold (POT) flood series for Scottish rivers reveals that, for thresholds yielding two events per year on average, annual POT frequencies on western rivers have increased in the 1980s/1990s to maximum recorded values, while in the east, values were highest in the 1950s/1960s. These results support the results of flood modelling work based on rainfall and temperature records from the 1870s, which indicate that, in western catchments, annual POT frequencies in the 1980s/1990s are unprecedented. No general trends in flood magnitude series were found, but an unexpected cluster of extreme floods is identified as having occurred since 1988, resulting in eight of Scotland's 16 largest gauged rivers producing their maximum recorded flows since then. These shifts are related to recent increases in the dominance of westerly airflows, share similarities with the results of climate change modelling, and collectively point to increases in flood risk in many parts of Scotland. The paper also reviews advances in flood risk estimation arising from the publication of the UK Flood Estimation Handbook, developments in the collection and use of historic flood estimation and the production of maps of 100-year flood areal extent. Finally the challenges in flood risk estimation posed by climate change are examined, particularly in relation to the assumption of stationarity.

Exploring changes in vertical ice extent along the margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in western Dronning Maud Land - initial results of the MAGIC-DML collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifton, N. A.; Newall, J. C.; Fredin, O.; Glasser, N. F.; Fabel, D.; Rogozhina, I.; Bernales, J.; Prange, M.; Sams, S.; Eisen, O.; Hättestrand, C.; Harbor, J.; Stroeven, A. P.

2017-12-01

Numerical ice sheet models constrained by theory and refined by comparisons with observational data are a central component of work to address the interactions between the cryosphere and changing climate, at a wide range of scales. Such models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological, and ice core data. However, on the East Antarctic Ice sheet, there are few empirical data with which to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry in the Dronning Maud Land (DML) region. In addition, there is poor control on the regional climate history of the ice sheet margin, because ice core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history in this near-coastal area largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is an ongoing Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on improving ice sheet models by combining advances in numerical modeling with filling critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes on the western Dronning Maud Land margin. A combination of geomorphological mapping using remote sensing data, field investigations, cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, and numerical ice-sheet modeling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of western Dronning Maud Land. We will present an overview of the project, as well as field observations and preliminary in situ cosmogenic nuclide measurements from the 2016/17 expedition.

Patterns of authorship in the IPCC Working Group III report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbera, Esteve; Calvet-Mir, Laura; Hughes, Hannah; Paterson, Matthew

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completed its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Here, we explore the social scientific networks informing Working Group III (WGIII) assessment of mitigation for the AR5. Identifying authors’ institutional pathways, we highlight the persistence and extent of North-South inequalities in the authorship of the report, revealing the dominance of US and UK institutions as training sites for WGIII authors. Examining patterns of co-authorship between WGIII authors, we identify the unevenness in co-authoring relations, with a small number of authors co-writing regularly and indicative of an epistemic community’s influence over the IPCC’s definition of mitigation. These co-authoring networks follow regional patterns, with significant EU-BRICS collaboration and authors from the US relatively insular. From a disciplinary perspective, economists, engineers, physicists and natural scientists remain central to the process, with insignificant participation of scholars from the humanities. The shared training and career paths made apparent through our analysis suggest that the idea that broader geographic participation may lead to a wider range of viewpoints and cultural understandings of climate change mitigation may not be as sound as previously thought.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model RegCM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are small, but generally consistent with the detected trends of the 20th century. Based on the simulations, extreme precipitation events are expected to become more intense and more frequent in winter, while a general decrease of extreme precipitation indices is expected in summer.

The relationship between humans and climate across the North Atlantic: what can lacustrine biomarkers tell us?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wet, G.; Castañeda, I. S.; Bradley, R. S.; Small, G.; Barrasso, T.

2016-12-01

While climate change has been implicated in the colonization/population dynamics of the North Atlantic region, researchers in many cases are forced to compare archaeological data with distant paleoclimate records, making these linkages tenuous. Our research utilizes novel organic biomarkers in lacustrine sediments to produce paired paleoclimate and human occupancy reconstructions to better address questions surrounding human migration and climate change. Here we present preliminary results from two prominent locations in the history of the European colonization of the North Atlantic. The first, carried out on the Norse "Eastern Settlement" in Southern Greenland, attempts to answer the long-standing question of whether climate change caused the demise of the colony in the 1400s C.E. Second, we use similar techniques to search for evidence of the first peopling of the Faroe Islands, a highly debated topic. The use of lacustrine biomarkers allows for numerous aspects of both paleoclimate and human presence in a catchment to be reconstructed. We reconstruct paleotemperatures using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) and alkenones (the UK37 Index), when present. Additionally, will analyze the difference in the hydrogen isotopic composition of long and short-chain plant leaf waxes as a proxy for lake water balance. Human occupancy in the region is investigated using fecal sterols and stanols, primarily created by the breakdown of cholesterol. Some of these compounds, such as coprostanol (the dominant sterol in human waste), provide strong evidence of human settlements and have been identified in some of our lake records. Our preliminary results suggest that temperatures were increasing in SW Greenland during the period when the Norse are thought to have died out, potentially challenging the long-standing view of climate deterioration being the primary cause of their demise. Primary productivity biomarkers from lake Eidisvatnet, in the Faroe Islands, suggests humans may have been present and influencing the landscape hundreds of years earlier than previously thought. Overall, our work highlights the potential application of lacustrine biomarkers to answer longstanding questions about the relationship of humans and climate back through time.

Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

2018-01-01

Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper.

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. UK Medical Research Council.

What climate changes could be observed by two generations of Poles?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szwed, M.

2010-09-01

For many years, numerous scientific papers in different disciplines have been published on different aspects of the global warming. The issue of climate change and its impacts has become certainly a "fashionable" research area. In Poland, for example, the issue was tackled by one of the greatest hydro-climatological research projects, namely: "Extreme meteorological and hydrological events in Poland (the evaluation of forecasting events and their effects on human environment)". However, for several years, and certainly since 2007, when Al Gore, former U.S. vice-president, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) won the Nobel Peace Prize, this topic has started to be increasingly more frequently raised by the Polish media. The average Polish citizen increasingly more often learns from the press, radio and television about the global warming. There are also those skeptical of the climate change who loudly express their opinions in the media. Can the average Pole not get lost in the thicket of information? Can they refer to their own memory or the memory of their parents or grandparents on issues of climate change? How is the typical summer or winter perceived the previous generations? Is it possible to observe such changes without reference to extreme events? This article is to try to answer the question whether the average Pole could see climate change, most simply understood as changes in the thermal conditions and precipitations. If yes, then what seasons or months see the biggest changes. Which parts of the country witness the biggest changes? The starting point of the analysis are the 58-years time series of real monthly temperature and precipitation in the period of 1951-2008 for 20 stations across Poland. However, they will not be analyzed in more detail. In order to smooth the data sequences and thus to reject the short-term fluctuations, the long-term moving averages in different sequences (individual months, seasons and years) will be analyzed. The analysis of moving averages will help to find potential longer-term trends or cycles in the test time series. Trends will be detected based on parametric and nonparametric tests, such as linear regression and Mann-Kendall test. Finally, the current temperature and precipitation will be compared to the climate projections at the end of the 21st century. To this end, the climate models from the ENSEMBLES research project will be used. In the case of temperature, these will be C41RCA3 from Rossby Centre (Norrköping, Sweden); CLM from ETH (Zurich, Switzerland), KNMI-RACMO2 from the Royal National Meteorological Institute (De Bilt, the Netherlands), MPI-M-REMO from the Max Planck Institute (Hamburg, Germany); METO-HC from the Met Office's Hadley Centre (Exeter, UK), and RCA from the SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (Norrköping, Sweden). In the case of precipitation, only the MPI-M-REMO model will be used. The reason is the outcome of the validation of models for the territory of Poland (previously made by the author) which indicated that this model was the best fit for the Polish precipitation conditions.

Soil-related geohazard assessments for maintaining the UK's minor road network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pritchard, Oliver; Hallett, Stephen; Farewell, Timothy

2015-04-01

The minor road network of the UK (United Kingdom) encompasses 98% of the overall road network. In recent years the UK's roads have been deteriorating, currently rated 26th in the world and considered at risk and declining by the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE). Many factors contribute to the degradation and ultimately, to the failure of particular road sections. However, several UK local authorities have identified that during drought conditions, road sections founded upon clay soils which are susceptible to volumetric shrinkage and swelling undergo significant deterioration compared to those sections on non-susceptible soils. Droughts in East Anglia recently resulted in estimated damages of £26 million, leading several local authorities to apply to Central Government for emergency funding. The minor or evolved road network is most at risk due to them having often little, if any, structural foundations. This paper addresses the use of soil-related geohazard assessments and GIS (Geographical Information Systems) in helping to provide a soil-informed maintenance strategy for the asset management of the important (both socially and commercially) local road network of the UK. Furthermore, to establish future subsidence risk, UKCP09 climate projections have been used to model the likely potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) for baseline (1961-1990), 2030 (2020-2049) and 2050 (2040-2069) scenarios. The incorporation of probabilistic PSMD data into clay-related subsidence models has allowed an assessment of potential subsidence risk, with a range of uncertainties, for these scenarios. Intersection of road networks with future projections of subsidence risk has enabled metrics of potential vulnerability to be established. This will aid prioritisation of areas which require further maintenance to make them more climate resilient, avoiding emergency funding situations. Subsequently, this approach can then be extrapolated to the entire UK minor road network, on a local authority level, to provide a series of regional risk assessments. Case studies are drawn from the UK administrative counties of Lincolnshire and Worcestershire. Data from observed road assessments, obtained from the respective local authorities have been analysed and intersected with clay-related subsidence risk. Lincolnshire County Council have already implemented this research to prioritise approximately £600,000 of road maintenance fund to their minor road network. Further appreciation of the spatial distribution and understanding of soil-related hazards has also led Lincolnshire County Council to trial new resurfacing strategies; these new techniques helping to reduce carbon outputs in the form of materials and transport. A reduction in the amount of potential hazardous (bituminous) waste to landfill is also being achieved through re-inclusion of waste material back into the road foundation where areas are particularly prone to soil shrinkage. Our research shows that soil-related geohazard assessments have a part to play in the asset management of the UK's local highways network. The study supports the ICE's recommendation for a regime which moves towards planned, preventative maintenance and achieving Defra's (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) aim of a climate resilient UK infrastructure. The methodology introduced here also has applicability to other countries, where appropriate soils and infrastructure data are available.

Enhanced light absorption by mixed source black and brown carbon particles in UK winter

PubMed Central

Liu, Shang; Aiken, Allison C.; Gorkowski, Kyle; Dubey, Manvendra K.; Cappa, Christopher D.; Williams, Leah R.; Herndon, Scott C.; Massoli, Paola; Fortner, Edward C.; Chhabra, Puneet S.; Brooks, William A.; Onasch, Timothy B.; Jayne, John T.; Worsnop, Douglas R.; China, Swarup; Sharma, Noopur; Mazzoleni, Claudio; Xu, Lu; Ng, Nga L.; Liu, Dantong; Allan, James D.; Lee, James D.; Fleming, Zoë L.; Mohr, Claudia; Zotter, Peter; Szidat, Sönke; Prévôt, André S. H.

2015-01-01

Black carbon (BC) and light-absorbing organic carbon (brown carbon, BrC) play key roles in warming the atmosphere, but the magnitude of their effects remains highly uncertain. Theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments demonstrate that coatings on BC can enhance BC's light absorption, therefore many climate models simply assume enhanced BC absorption by a factor of ∼1.5. However, recent field observations show negligible absorption enhancement, implying models may overestimate BC's warming. Here we report direct evidence of substantial field-measured BC absorption enhancement, with the magnitude strongly depending on BC coating amount. Increases in BC coating result from a combination of changing sources and photochemical aging processes. When the influence of BrC is accounted for, observationally constrained model calculations of the BC absorption enhancement can be reconciled with the observations. We conclude that the influence of coatings on BC absorption should be treated as a source and regionally specific parameter in climate models. PMID:26419204

Enhanced light absorption by mixed source black and brown carbon particles in UK winter

DOE PAGES

Liu, Shang; Aiken, Allison C.; Gorkowski, Kyle; ...

2015-09-30

We report that black carbon (BC) and light-absorbing organic carbon (brown carbon, BrC) play key roles in warming the atmosphere, but the magnitude of their effects remains highly uncertain. Theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments demonstrate that coatings on BC can enhance BC’s light absorption, therefore many climate models simply assume enhanced BC absorption by a factor of ~1.5. However, recent field observations show negligible absorption enhancement, implying models may overestimate BC’s warming. Here we report direct evidence of substantial field-measured BC absorption enhancement, with the magnitude strongly depending on BC coating amount. Increases in BC coating result from a combinationmore » of changing sources and photochemical aging processes. When the influence of BrC is accounted for, observationally constrained model calculations of the BC absorption enhancement can be reconciled with the observations. In conclusion, we find that the influence of coatings on BC absorption should be treated as a source and regionally specific parameter in climate models.« less

Plant Nitrogen Uptake in Terrestrial Biogeochemical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marti, Alejandro; Cox, Peter; Sitch, Stephen; Jones, Chris; Liddicoat, spencer

2013-04-01

Most terrestrial biogeochemical models featured in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) Assessment Report highlight the importance of the terrestrial Carbon sequestration and feedbacks between the terrestrial Carbon cycle and the climate system. However, these models have been criticized for overestimating predicted Carbon sequestration and its potential climate feedback when calculating the rate of future climate change because they do not account for the Carbon sequestration constraints caused by nutrient limitation, particularly Nitrogen (N). This is particularly relevant considering the existence of a substantial deficit of Nitrogen for plants in most areas of the world. To date, most climate models assume that plants have access to as much Nitrogen as needed, but ignore the nutrient requirements for new vegetation growth. Determining the natural demand and acquisition for Nitrogen and its associated resource optimization is key when accounting for the Carbon sequestration constrains caused by nutrient limitation. The few climate models that include C-N dynamics have illustrated that the stimulation of plant growth over the coming century may be two to three times smaller than previously predicted. This reduction in growth is partially offset by an increase in the availability of nutrients resulting from an accelerated rate of decomposition of dead plants and other organic matter that occurring with a rise in temperature. However, this offset does not counterbalance the reduced level of plant growth calculated by natural nutrient limitations. Additionally, Nitrogen limitation is also expected to become more pronounced in some ecosystems as atmospheric CO2 concentration increases; resulting in less new growth and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations than originally expected. This study compares alternative models of plant N uptake as found in different terrestrial biogeochemical models against field measurements, and introduces a new N-uptake model to the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES).. Acknowledgements This work has been funded by the European Commission FP7-PEOPLE-ITN-2008 Marie Curie Action: "Greencycles II: FP7-PEOPLE-ITN-2008 Marie Curie Action: "Networks for Initial Training"

Entrepreneurialism in Japanese and UK Universities: Governance, Management, Leadership, and Funding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yokoyama, Keiko

2006-01-01

This paper scrutinises organisational change in Japanese and UK universities which are engaged in entrepreneurial activities. The study focuses on recent changes in governance, management, leadership, and funding in these universities. The paper argues there are convergent trends between Japanese and UK universities in terms of increasing…

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

The ISB model (infrastructure, service, behaviour): a tool for waste practitioners.

PubMed

Timlett, R; Williams, I D

2011-06-01

In response to the EU Landfill Directive and the challenge of mitigating climate change, the UK government (nationally and locally) must develop strategies and policies to reduce, recycle, compost and recover waste. Best practice services that yield high recycling rates, such as alternate weekly collections, are now largely mainstream in suitable areas. However, national recycling performance is short of what is needed; policy makers must look for innovative ways to meet challenging recycling targets. Increasingly, local authorities are using behaviour change interventions to encourage the public to recycle; these tend to be based on the premise that an individuals' behaviour is predetermined by their values. In practice, this has led to a host of initiatives that attempt to change individuals' behaviour without addressing situational barriers. In this paper, we argue that that a behaviour-centric approach has limited effectiveness. Using an analysis of the literature and studies that investigated recycling participation in the city of Portsmouth, we have identified three significant clusters that can facilitate effective recycling: infrastructure, service and behaviour (ISB). We present the ISB model - a tool that can be used by waste practitioners when planning interventions to maximise recycling to better understand the situation and context for behaviour. Analysis using the ISB model suggests that current best practice, "business as usual" interventions could realistically achieve a national recycling rate of 50%. If the UK is to move towards zero waste, policy makers must look "upstream" for interventions that change the situational landscape. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Potential of Surfers to Monitor Environmental Indicators in the Coastal Zone.

PubMed

Brewin, Robert J W; de Mora, Lee; Jackson, Thomas; Brewin, Thomas G; Shutler, Jamie

2015-01-01

The social and economic benefits of the coastal zone make it one of the most treasured environments on our planet. Yet it is vulnerable to increasing anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Coastal management aims to mitigate these pressures while augmenting the socio-economic benefits the coastal region has to offer. However, coastal management is challenged by inadequate sampling of key environmental indicators, partly due to issues relating to cost of data collection. Here, we investigate the use of recreational surfers as platforms to improve sampling coverage of environmental indicators in the coastal zone. We equipped a recreational surfer, based in the south west United Kingdom (UK), with a temperature sensor and Global Positioning System (GPS) device that they used when surfing for a period of one year (85 surfing sessions). The temperature sensor was used to derive estimates of sea-surface temperature (SST), an important environmental indicator, and the GPS device used to provide sample location and to extract information on surfer performance. SST data acquired by the surfer were compared with data from an oceanographic station in the south west UK and with satellite observations. Our results demonstrate: (i) high-quality SST data can be acquired by surfers using low cost sensors; and (ii) GPS data can provide information on surfing performance that may help motivate data collection by surfers. Using recent estimates of the UK surfing population, and frequency of surfer participation, we speculate around 40 million measurements on environmental indicators per year could be acquired at the UK coastline by surfers. This quantity of data is likely to enhance coastal monitoring and aid UK coastal management. Considering surfing is a world-wide sport, our results have global implications and the approach could be expanded to other popular marine recreational activities for coastal monitoring of environmental indicators.

On the Potential of Surfers to Monitor Environmental Indicators in the Coastal Zone

PubMed Central

Brewin, Robert J. W.; de Mora, Lee; Jackson, Thomas; Brewin, Thomas G.; Shutler, Jamie

2015-01-01

The social and economic benefits of the coastal zone make it one of the most treasured environments on our planet. Yet it is vulnerable to increasing anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Coastal management aims to mitigate these pressures while augmenting the socio-economic benefits the coastal region has to offer. However, coastal management is challenged by inadequate sampling of key environmental indicators, partly due to issues relating to cost of data collection. Here, we investigate the use of recreational surfers as platforms to improve sampling coverage of environmental indicators in the coastal zone. We equipped a recreational surfer, based in the south west United Kingdom (UK), with a temperature sensor and Global Positioning System (GPS) device that they used when surfing for a period of one year (85 surfing sessions). The temperature sensor was used to derive estimates of sea-surface temperature (SST), an important environmental indicator, and the GPS device used to provide sample location and to extract information on surfer performance. SST data acquired by the surfer were compared with data from an oceanographic station in the south west UK and with satellite observations. Our results demonstrate: (i) high-quality SST data can be acquired by surfers using low cost sensors; and (ii) GPS data can provide information on surfing performance that may help motivate data collection by surfers. Using recent estimates of the UK surfing population, and frequency of surfer participation, we speculate around 40 million measurements on environmental indicators per year could be acquired at the UK coastline by surfers. This quantity of data is likely to enhance coastal monitoring and aid UK coastal management. Considering surfing is a world-wide sport, our results have global implications and the approach could be expanded to other popular marine recreational activities for coastal monitoring of environmental indicators. PMID:26154173

Nuclear energy: current situation and prospects to 2020.

PubMed

Ion, Sue

2007-04-15

For close to half a century nuclear fission has been providing reliable supplies of electricity to the UK, with virtually no emissions of carbon dioxide. Over that period, the UK nuclear industry has avoided the emission of over one and a half billion tonnes of CO2. Yet no nuclear plant has been built in the UK for over two decades even though many of the stations in our current fleet are now within a decade or so of the end of their lifetime. Without new plants being ordered soon, the UK's nuclear capacity will decline dramatically, from 23% today to 3% post-2020--just as considerations of supply security and climate change are becoming increasingly important. Elsewhere in the world, many countries such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, Finland and France are building new stations. Other countries such as the USA, South Africa, and some nations that currently do not have nuclear stations (such as Indonesia and Poland) are making preparations for future nuclear stations. Globally capacity factors for nuclear plants are higher than they have ever been, averaging around 85% and with the best stations achieving well over 90%. Lifetime can be 60 years. That the economics of such stations compete well with other technologies is well founded and easily verifiable--especially in the face of rising fossil fuel prices and the pricing in of costs for CO2 emissions--both of which stand to improve the economics of nuclear energy still further. Waste volumes arising from modern plants are just a fraction of those of some earlier stations, and the technologies are in place to deal with them safely and effectively. Following recent reviews and international developments, there is growing confidence that internationally available competitive designs of nuclear plant will provide part of the solution to the UK's long-term energy needs.

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, Robert L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2000-01-01

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

What Are the Implications of Tier 4 UK Immigration Rules and Policy for Non-EU Students? The Experiences of Students from Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Achinewhu-Nworgu, Elizabeth; Nworgu, Queen Chioma; Ayinde, Helen

2015-01-01

Changes introduced in 2010 to the Tier 4 immigration rules that apply to non-EU students wishing to study in the UK have led to a reduction in the overall number of non-EU students gaining entry to the UK. This paper outlines the reasons for these changes to the UK's immigration rules and explores the experiences of one group of non-EU students in…

Implementing statistical equating for MRCP(UK) Parts 1 and 2.

PubMed

McManus, I C; Chis, Liliana; Fox, Ray; Waller, Derek; Tang, Peter

2014-09-26

The MRCP(UK) exam, in 2008 and 2010, changed the standard-setting of its Part 1 and Part 2 examinations from a hybrid Angoff/Hofstee method to statistical equating using Item Response Theory, the reference group being UK graduates. The present paper considers the implementation of the change, the question of whether the pass rate increased amongst non-UK candidates, any possible role of Differential Item Functioning (DIF), and changes in examination predictive validity after the change. Analysis of data of MRCP(UK) Part 1 exam from 2003 to 2013 and Part 2 exam from 2005 to 2013. Inspection suggested that Part 1 pass rates were stable after the introduction of statistical equating, but showed greater annual variation probably due to stronger candidates taking the examination earlier. Pass rates seemed to have increased in non-UK graduates after equating was introduced, but was not associated with any changes in DIF after statistical equating. Statistical modelling of the pass rates for non-UK graduates found that pass rates, in both Part 1 and Part 2, were increasing year on year, with the changes probably beginning before the introduction of equating. The predictive validity of Part 1 for Part 2 was higher with statistical equating than with the previous hybrid Angoff/Hofstee method, confirming the utility of IRT-based statistical equating. Statistical equating was successfully introduced into the MRCP(UK) Part 1 and Part 2 written examinations, resulting in higher predictive validity than the previous Angoff/Hofstee standard setting. Concerns about an artefactual increase in pass rates for non-UK candidates after equating were shown not to be well-founded. Most likely the changes resulted from a genuine increase in candidate ability, albeit for reasons which remain unclear, coupled with a cognitive illusion giving the impression of a step-change immediately after equating began. Statistical equating provides a robust standard-setting method, with a better theoretical foundation than judgemental techniques such as Angoff, and is more straightforward and requires far less examiner time to provide a more valid result. The present study provides a detailed case study of introducing statistical equating, and issues which may need to be considered with its introduction.

Estimating the Contrail Impact on Climate Using the UK Met Office Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.

2008-12-01

With air travel predicted to increase over the coming century, the emissions associated with air traffic are expected to have a significant warming effect on climate. According to current best estimates, an important contribution comes from contrails. However, as reported by the IPCC fourth assessment report, these current best estimates still have a high uncertainty. The development and validation of contrail parameterizations in global climate models is therefore very important. This current study develops a contrail parameterization within the UK Met Office Climate Model. Using this new parameterization, we estimate that for the 2002 traffic, the global mean annual contrail coverage is approximately 0.11%, a value which in good agreement with several other estimates. The corresponding contrail radiative forcing (RF) is calculated to be approximately 4 and 6 mWm-2 in all-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively. These values lie within the lower end of the RF range reported by the latest IPCC assessment. The relatively high cloud masking effect on contrails observed by our parameterization compared with other studies is investigated, and a possible cause for this difference is suggested. The effect of the diurnal variations of air traffic on both contrail coverage and contrail RF is also investigated. The new parameterization is also employed in thirty-year slab-ocean model runs in order to give one of the first insights into contrail effects on daily temperature range and the climate impact of contrails.

Phenology changes in the mayfly Ephemera danica in response to water temperature variations in the River Dove, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Matthew; Everall, Nicholas; Wilby, Robert

2015-04-01

Water temperature in rivers is critical to aquatic life. Climate and environmental change can elevate river temperatures to levels that stress fish, but impacts on other aquatic organisms are not well understood. In particular, rising temperatures are expected to alter the phenology of aquatic insects at levels substantially below those required to stress fish species. The phenology of the mayfly Ephemera danica, a large burrowing species that is widespread throughout Europe, is known to be sensitive to temperature change. To assess the temporal and spatial variability in mayfly emergence, E. danica were monitored at two reaches in the River Dove, English Peak District over the period 2007 to 2013. Variations in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) were modelled for an upstream site with an annual temperature range in excess of 15 ° C (Beresford Dale) and a downstream site, dominated by near constant discharges of cool groundwater with an annual range less than 8 ° C (Dovedale). The emergence of E. danica was strongly related to GDDs at each site. E. danica usually remains in an aquatic larval stage for two years before emerging in its adult, terrestrial form. However, after particularly warm summers in Beresford Dale, E. danica was recorded to emerge after only one year in its aquatic form. Following the particularly wet/cold year of 2012, E. danica began to revert back to a bi-annual cycle. In Dovedale, an average of 374 fewer GDDs were accumulated in comparison to Beresford Dale. As a result, E. danica maintained a two-year growth cycle throughout the monitoring period despite the phenology changes observed 8 km upstream at Beresford. Changes to insect phenology are significant because populations with a one-year cycle are potentially more vulnerable to adverse weather when the majority of the population is in terrestrial form. Also, altering the growth, development and size of insects affects reproductive success with implications for population dynamics. Data from the present study suggest that habitats near cool groundwater may provide important refugia for populations of insects, potentially delaying permanent shifts in phenology under climate change. Conventional monitoring of both water temperature and invertebrates, as used by regulatory authorities in the UK, did not identify the changes in insect phenology or the association between phenology and water temperature. Therefore, new monitoring strategies are required in order to identify important changes in aquatic populations in response to rising temperatures.

The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies.

PubMed

Jensen, Henning Tarp; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Smith, Richard D; Chalabi, Zaid; Dangour, Alan D; Davies, Mike; Edwards, Phil; Garnett, Tara; Givoni, Moshe; Griffiths, Ulla; Hamilton, Ian; Jarrett, James; Roberts, Ian; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodcock, James; Haines, Andy

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).

Superensemble of a Regional Climate Model for the Western US using Climateprediction.net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Salahuddin, A.; Allen, M.; Jones, R.

2010-12-01

For over a decade, a citizen science experiment called climateprediction.net organized by Oxford University has used computer time contributed by over 80,000 volunteers around the world to create superensembles of global climate simulations. A new climateprediction.net experiment built by the UK Meteorological Office and Oxford, and released in late summer 2010, brings these computing resources to bear on regional climate modeling for the Western US, western Europe, and southern Africa. For the western US, the spatial resolution of 25km permits important topological features -- mountain ranges and valleys -- to be resolved and to influence simulated climate, which consequently includes many important observed features of climate like the fact that California’s Central Valley is hottest at the north and south ends in summer, and cooler in the middle owing to the maritime influence that leaks through the gap in the coast range in the San Francisco area. We designed the output variables to satisfy both research needs and societal and environmental impacts needs. These include atmospheric circulation on regional and global scales, surface fluxes of energy, and hydrologic variables; extremes of temperature, precipitation, and wind; and derived quantities like frost days and number of consecutive dry days. Early results from pre-release beta testing suggest that the simulated fields compare favorably with available observations, and that the model performs as well in the distributed computing environment as on a dedicated high-performance machine. The advantages of a superensemble in interpreting regional climate change will permit an unprecedented combination of statistical completeness and spatial resolution.

Creating a climate that catalyses healthcare innovation in the United Kingdom - learning lessons from international innovators.

PubMed

Cresswell, Kathrin; Cunningham-Burley, Sarah; Sheikh, Aziz

2017-01-25

The United Kingdom (UK) lags behind other high-income countries in relation to technological innovation in healthcare. In order to inform UK strategy on how to catalyse innovation, we sought to understand what national strategies can help to promote a climate for innovation in healthcare settings by extracting lessons for the UK from international innovators. We undertook a series of qualitative semi-structured interviews with senior international innovators from a range of health related policy, care/service delivery, commercial and academic backgrounds. Thematic analysis helped to explore how different stakeholder groups could facilitate/inhibit innovation at individual, organisational, and wider societal levels. We conducted 14 interviews and found that a conducive climate for healthcare innovation comprised of national/regional strategies stimulating commercial competition, promoting public/private relationships, and providing central direction (e.g. incentives for adoption and regulation through standards) without being restrictive. Organisational attitudes with a willingness to experiment and to take risks were also seen as important, but a bottom-up approach to innovation, based on the identification of clinical need, was seen as a crucial first step to construct relevant national policies.  There is now a need to create mechanisms through which frontline National Health Service staff in relation can raise ideas/concerns and suggest opportunities for improvement, and then build national innovation environments that seek to address these needs. This should be accompanied by creating competitive health technology markets to stimulate a commercial environment that attracts high-quality health information technology experts and innovators working in partnership with staff and patients.

Geoengineering the climate: an overview and update.

PubMed

Shepherd, J G

2012-09-13

The climate change that we are experiencing now is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activities, including burning fossil fuels, agriculture and deforestation. There is now widespread belief that a global warming of greater than 2(°)C above pre-industrial levels would be dangerous and should therefore be avoided. However, despite growing concerns over climate change and numerous international attempts to agree on reductions of global CO(2) emissions, these have continued to climb. This has led some commentators to suggest more radical 'geoengineering' alternatives to conventional mitigation by reductions in CO(2) emissions. Geoengineering is deliberate intervention in the climate system to counteract man-made global warming. There are two main classes of geoengineering: direct carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management that aims to cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. The findings of the review of geoengineering carried out by the UK Royal Society in 2009 are summarized here, including the climate effects, costs, risks and research and governance needs for various approaches. The possible role of geoengineering in a portfolio of responses to climate change is discussed, and various recent initiatives to establish good governance of research activity are reviewed. Key findings include the following.- Geoengineering is not a magic bullet and not an alternative to emissions reductions. - Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions must remain our highest priority. (i) But this is proving to be difficult, and geoengineering may be useful to support it. - Geoengineering is very likely to be technically possible. (i) However, there are major uncertainties and potential risks concerning effectiveness, costs and social and environmental impacts. - Much more research is needed, as well as public engagement and a system of regulation (for both deployment and for possible large-scale field tests). - The acceptability of geoengineering will be determined as much by social, legal and political issues as by scientific and technical factors. Some methods of both types would involve release of materials to the environment, either to the atmosphere or to the oceans, in areas beyond national jurisdiction. The intended impacts on climate would in any case affect many or all countries, possibly to a variable extent. There are therefore inherent international implications for deployment of such geoengineering methods (and possibly also for some forms of research), which need early and collaborative consideration, before any deployment or large-scale experiments could be undertaken responsibly.

Defining indoor heat thresholds for health in the UK.

PubMed

Anderson, Mindy; Carmichael, Catriona; Murray, Virginia; Dengel, Andy; Swainson, Michael

2013-05-01

It has been recognised that as outdoor ambient temperatures increase past a particular threshold, so do mortality/morbidity rates. However, similar thresholds for indoor temperatures have not yet been identified. Due to a warming climate, the non-sustainability of air conditioning as a solution, and the desire for more energy-efficient airtight homes, thresholds for indoor temperature should be defined as a public health issue. The aim of this paper is to outline the need for indoor heat thresholds and to establish if they can be identified. Our objectives include: describing how indoor temperature is measured; highlighting threshold measurements and indices; describing adaptation to heat; summary of the risk of susceptible groups to heat; reviewing the current evidence on the link between sleep, heat and health; exploring current heat and health warning systems and thresholds; exploring the built environment and the risk of overheating; and identifying the gaps in current knowledge and research. A global literature search of key databases was conducted using a pre-defined set of keywords to retrieve peer-reviewed and grey literature. The paper will apply the findings to the context of the UK. A summary of 96 articles, reports, government documents and textbooks were analysed and a gap analysis was conducted. Evidence on the effects of indoor heat on health implies that buildings are modifiers of the effect of climate on health outcomes. Personal exposure and place-based heat studies showed the most significant correlations between indoor heat and health outcomes. However, the data are sparse and inconclusive in terms of identifying evidence-based definitions for thresholds. Further research needs to be conducted in order to provide an evidence base for threshold determination. Indoor and outdoor heat are related but are different in terms of language and measurement. Future collaboration between the health and building sectors is needed to develop a common language and an index for indoor heat and health thresholds in a changing climate.

Assessing organisational readiness for change: use of diagnostic analysis prior to the implementation of a multidisciplinary assessment for acute stroke care

PubMed Central

Hamilton, Sharon; McLaren, Susan; Mulhall, Anne

2007-01-01

Background Achieving evidence-based practice in health care is integral to the drive for quality improvement in the National Health Service in the UK. Encapsulated within this policy agenda are challenges inherent in leading and managing organisational change. Not least of these is the need to change the behaviours of individuals and groups in order to embed new practices. Such changes are set within a context of organisational culture that can present a number of barriers and facilitators to change. Diagnostic analysis has been recommended as a precursor to the implementation of change to enable such barriers and facilitators to be identified and a targeted implementation strategy developed. Although diagnostic analysis is recommended, there is a paucity of advice on appropriate methods to use. This paper addresses the paucity and builds on previous work by recommending a mixed method approach to diagnostic analysis comprising both quantitative and qualitative data. Methods Twenty staff members with strategic accountability for stroke care were purposively sampled to take part in semi-structured interviews. Six recently discharged patients were also interviewed. Focus groups were conducted with one group of registered ward-based nurses (n = 5) and three specialist registrars (n = 3) purposively selected for their interest in stroke care. All professional staff on the study wards were sent the Team Climate Inventory questionnaire (n = 206). This elicited a response rate of 72% (n = 148). Results A number of facilitators for change were identified, including stakeholder support, organisational commitment to education, strong team climate in some teams, exemplars of past successful organisational change, and positive working environments. A number of barriers were also identified, including: unidisciplinary assessment/recording practices, varying in structure and evidence-base; weak team climate in some teams; negative exemplars of organisational change; and uncertainty created by impending organisational merger. Conclusion This study built on previous research by proposing a mixed method approach for diagnostic analysis. The combination of qualitative and quantitative data were able to capture multiple perspectives on barriers and facilitators to change. These data informed the tailoring of the implementation strategy to the specific needs of the Trust. PMID:17629929

Assessing organisational readiness for change: use of diagnostic analysis prior to the implementation of a multidisciplinary assessment for acute stroke care.

PubMed

Hamilton, Sharon; McLaren, Susan; Mulhall, Anne

2007-07-14

Achieving evidence-based practice in health care is integral to the drive for quality improvement in the National Health Service in the UK. Encapsulated within this policy agenda are challenges inherent in leading and managing organisational change. Not least of these is the need to change the behaviours of individuals and groups in order to embed new practices. Such changes are set within a context of organisational culture that can present a number of barriers and facilitators to change. Diagnostic analysis has been recommended as a precursor to the implementation of change to enable such barriers and facilitators to be identified and a targeted implementation strategy developed. Although diagnostic analysis is recommended, there is a paucity of advice on appropriate methods to use. This paper addresses the paucity and builds on previous work by recommending a mixed method approach to diagnostic analysis comprising both quantitative and qualitative data. Twenty staff members with strategic accountability for stroke care were purposively sampled to take part in semi-structured interviews. Six recently discharged patients were also interviewed. Focus groups were conducted with one group of registered ward-based nurses (n = 5) and three specialist registrars (n = 3) purposively selected for their interest in stroke care. All professional staff on the study wards were sent the Team Climate Inventory questionnaire (n = 206). This elicited a response rate of 72% (n = 148). A number of facilitators for change were identified, including stakeholder support, organisational commitment to education, strong team climate in some teams, exemplars of past successful organisational change, and positive working environments. A number of barriers were also identified, including: unidisciplinary assessment/recording practices, varying in structure and evidence-base; weak team climate in some teams; negative exemplars of organisational change; and uncertainty created by impending organisational merger. This study built on previous research by proposing a mixed method approach for diagnostic analysis. The combination of qualitative and quantitative data were able to capture multiple perspectives on barriers and facilitators to change. These data informed the tailoring of the implementation strategy to the specific needs of the Trust.

The impact of 21st Century sea ice decline on the hydrological budget of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.; Kohler, J.

2009-12-01

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. GCMs suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by about 1.5 due, largely, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the ensemble GCM predictions and has lead to the suggestion that the Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer as soon as ~2014. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the water below during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. For example, changes in sea ice cover are thought to have caused changes in the mass balance of Europe’s largest ice cap, Austfona, Svalbard, by increasing accumulation. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmosphere only general circulation model HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice obtained by extrapolating recent changes into the future using bootstrapping based on the HadISST climatology. Here we use an RCM at 25km resolution over the Arctic which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation.

Quantifying methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the UK using a dense monitoring network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganesan, A. L.; Manning, A. J.; Grant, A.; Young, D.; Oram, D. E.; Sturges, W. T.; Moncrieff, J. B.; O'Doherty, S.

2015-01-01

The UK is one of several countries around the world that has enacted legislation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Monitoring of emissions has been done through a detailed sectoral level bottom-up inventory (UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, NAEI) from which national totals are submitted yearly to the United Framework Convention on Climate Change. In parallel, the UK government has funded four atmospheric monitoring stations to infer emissions through top-down methods that assimilate atmospheric observations. In this study, we present top-down emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) for the UK and Ireland over the period August 2012 to August 2014. We used a hierarchical Bayesian inverse framework to infer fluxes as well as a set of covariance parameters that describe uncertainties in the system. We inferred average UK emissions of 2.08 (1.72-2.47) Tg yr-1 CH4 and 0.105 (0.087-0.127) Tg yr-1 N2O and found our derived estimates to be generally lower than the inventory. We used sectoral distributions from the NAEI to determine whether these discrepancies can be attributed to specific source sectors. Because of the distinct distributions of the two dominant CH4 emissions sectors in the UK, agriculture and waste, we found that the inventory may be overestimated in agricultural CH4 emissions. We also found that N2O fertilizer emissions from the NAEI may be overestimated and we derived a significant seasonal cycle in emissions. This seasonality is likely due to seasonality in fertilizer application and in environmental drivers such as temperature and rainfall, which are not reflected in the annual resolution inventory. Through the hierarchical Bayesian inverse framework, we quantified uncertainty covariance parameters and emphasized their importance for high-resolution emissions estimation. We inferred average model errors of approximately 20 and 0.4 ppb and correlation timescales of 1.0 (0.72-1.43) and 2.6 (1.9-3.9) days for CH4 and N2O, respectively. These errors are a combination of transport model errors as well as errors due to unresolved emissions processes in the inventory. We found the largest CH4 errors at the Tacolneston station in eastern England, which is possibly to do with sporadic emissions from landfills and offshore gas in the North Sea.

Increased ambient air temperature alters the severity of soil water repellency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Keulen, Geertje; Sinclair, Kat; Hallin, Ingrid; Doerr, Stefan; Urbanek, Emilia; Quinn, Gerry; Matthews, Peter; Dudley, Ed; Francis, Lewis; Gazze, S. Andrea; Whalley, Richard

2017-04-01

Soil repellency, the inability of soils to wet readily, has detrimental environmental impacts such as increased runoff, erosion and flooding, reduced biomass production, inefficient use of irrigation water and preferential leaching of pollutants. Its impacts may exacerbate (summer) flood risks associated with more extreme drought and precipitation events. In this study we have tested the hypothesis that transitions between hydrophobic and hydrophilic soil particle surface characteristics, in conjunction with soil structural properties, strongly influence the hydrological behaviour of UK soils under current and predicted UK climatic conditions. We have addressed the hypothesis by applying different ambient air temperatures under controlled conditions to simulate the effect of predicted UK climatic conditions on the wettability of soils prone to develop repellency at different severities. Three UK silt-loam soils under permanent vegetation were selected for controlled soil perturbation studies. The soils were chosen based on the severity of hydrophobicity that can be achieved in the field: severe to extreme (Cefn Bryn, Gower, Wales), intermediate to severe (National Botanical Garden, Wales), and subcritical (Park Grass, Rothamsted Research near London). The latter is already highly characterised so was also used as a control. Soils were fully saturated with water and then allowed to dry out gradually upon exposure to controlled laboratory conditions. Soils were allowed to adapt for a few hours to a new temperature prior to initiation of the controlled experiments. Soil wettability was determined at highly regular intervals by measuring water droplet penetration times. Samples were collected at four time points: fully wettable, just prior to and after the critical soil moisture concentrations (CSC), and upon reaching air dryness (to constant weight), for further (ultra)metaproteomic and nanomechanical studies to allow integration of bulk soil characterisations with functional expression and nanoscale studies to generate deep mechanistic understanding of the roles of microbes in soil ecosystems. Our controlled soil pertubation studies have shown that an increase in ambient temperature has consistently affected the severity of soil water repellency. Surprisingly, a higher ambient air temperature impacts soils that in the field develop subcritical and extreme repellency, differently under controlled laboratory conditions. We will discuss the impact of these results in relation to predicted UK climatic conditions. Soil metaproteomics will provide mechanistic insight at the molecular level whether differential microbial adaptation is correlated with the apparent different response to a higher ambient air temperature.

Decadal- to Orbital-Scale Links Between Climate, Productivity and Denitrification on the Peru Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higginson, M. J.; Altabet, M. A.; Herbert, T. D.

2002-12-01

Denitrification is the predominant global loss term for combined nitrogen and can exert a major control on its oceanic inventory, global productivity and atmospheric CO2. Our prior work demonstrates that proxy records for changing denitrification, oxygenation and productivity in the recent geological past in the Arabian Sea exhibit unprecedented similarity with abrupt climate fluctuations recorded in high-latitude ice-cores. Since the Peru Margin and Arabian Sea together constitute almost two-thirds of global marine water-column denitrification, changes in concert in these two regions could potentially have effected rapid global climate changes through an oceanic mechanism. The Peru Margin is intimately coupled to the Equatorial Pacific, source of El Ni&ño-La Niña SST, productivity and precipitation anomalies. Here, biogeochemical cycles are especially sensitive to abrupt climatic changes on decadal time-scales by virtue of this ENSO coupling. The purpose of our research is to investigate whether longer changes in tropical Pacific oceanography represent a 'scaling up' of anomalous ENSO conditions, modulated by both internal (e.g. nutrient inventory or WPWP heat budget) and external (e.g. orbital) forcing throughout the last glacial/inter-glacial cycle. Here we present first results of a detailed investigation of recently-recovered sediments from ODP Site 1228 on the Peru margin upper continental slope, in an attempt to capture some of the essential aspects of ENSO-like variability. Despite the existing availability of high quality sediment cores from this margin, little detailed paleoclimatic information currently exists because of poor sedimentary carbonate preservation (exacerbated post-recovery) which has limited generation of essential chronostratigraphic controls. Instead, we rely on the development and novel application of compound-specific AMS dating verified and supplemented by intermittent foraminiferal and bulk-carbon AMS dates, a magnetic paleo-intensity record and tephra layers to tie our records to established global chronologies for abrupt climate change. Based on this age model, we present records of nitrogen isotopic values (δ15N), chlorin and alkenone abundances, and alkenone-derived (Uk'37) SSTs for the last glacial-interglacial cycle. We extrapolate these new nitrogen isotopic results in the context of global marine denitrification. By constraining the loss term for marine nitrate at decadal-to-millennial timescales within the principal major regions of global denitrification, we make a first attempt to reconcile the records of atmospheric CO2 trapped in ice-cores with such rapid changes in global nutrient inventory.

Cellular stress responses to chronic heat shock and shell damage in temperate Mya truncata.

PubMed

Sleight, Victoria A; Peck, Lloyd S; Dyrynda, Elisabeth A; Smith, Valerie J; Clark, Melody S

2018-05-12

Acclimation, via phenotypic flexibility, is a potential means for a fast response to climate change. Understanding the molecular mechanisms underpinning phenotypic flexibility can provide a fine-scale cellular understanding of how organisms acclimate. In the last 30 years, Mya truncata populations around the UK have faced an average increase in sea surface temperature of 0.7 °C and further warming of between 1.5 and 4 °C, in all marine regions adjacent to the UK, is predicted by the end of the century. Hence, data are required on the ability of M. truncata to acclimate to physiological stresses, and most notably, chronic increases in temperature. Animals in the present study were exposed to chronic heat-stress for 2 months prior to shell damage and subsequently, only 3, out of 20 damaged individuals, were able to repair their shells within 2 weeks. Differentially expressed genes (between control and damaged animals) were functionally enriched with processes relating to cellular stress, the immune response and biomineralisation. Comparative transcriptomics highlighted genes, and more broadly molecular mechanisms, that are likely to be pivotal in this lack of acclimation. This study demonstrates that discovery-led transcriptomic profiling of animals during stress-response experiments can shed light on the complexity of biological processes and changes within organisms that can be more difficult to detect at higher levels of biological organisation.

Implications of changing water cycle for the performance and yield characteristics of the multi-purpose Beas Reservoir in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Ojha, C. S.; Soundharajan, B.; Remesan, R.

2013-12-01

There is considerable change in both the spatial and temporal patterns of monsoon rainfall in India, with implications for water resources availability and security. 'Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on India Agriculture' (MICCI) is one of five on-going scientific efforts being sponsored as part of the UK-NERC/India-MOES Changing Water Cycle (South Asia) initiative to further the understanding of the problem and proffer solutions that are robust and effective. This paper focuses on assessing the implications of projected climate change on the yield and performance characteristics of the Pong Reservoir on the Beas River, Himachal Pradesh, India. The Pong serves both hydropower and irrigation needs and is therefore strategic for the socio-economic well-being of the region as well as sustaining the livelihoods of millions of farmers that rely on it for irrigation. Simulated baseline and climate-change perturbed hydro-climate scenarios developed as part of a companion Work Package of MICCI formed the basis of the analysis. For both of these scenarios, reservoir analyses were carried out using the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SPA) and Pong's existing level of releases to derive rule curves for the reservoir. These rule curves then formed the basis of further reservoir behaviour simulations in WEAP and the resulting performance of the reservoir was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. The whole exercise was implemented within a Monte Carlo framework for the benefit of characterising the variability in the assessments. The results show that the rule curves developed using future hydro-climate are significantly changed from the baseline in that higher storages will be required to be maintained in the Pong in the future to achieve reliable performance. As far as the overall performance of the reservoir is concerned, future reliability (both time-based and volume-based) is not significantly different from the baseline, provided the future simulations adopt the future rule curves. This is, however, not the case with the resilience, with the future hydro-climate resulting in a less resilient system when compared with the baseline. The resilience is the ability of the system to recover from a hydrological failure; consequently, lower resilience for the future systems is an indication that longer, continuous failure periods are likely with implications for the two purposes of the reservoir. For example, extended periods of water scarcity that may result from a low resilient system will mean that crops are likely to experience longer periods of water stress with implications for crop yields. In such situations, better operational practices that manage the available water through hedging and irrigation water scheduling will be required. Other interventions may include the introduction of water from other sources, e.g. groundwater.

Black carbon aerosol mixing state, organic aerosols and aerosol optical properties over the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMeeking, G. R.; Morgan, W. T.; Flynn, M.; Highwood, E. J.; Turnbull, K.; Haywood, J.; Coe, H.

2011-09-01

Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb sunlight thereby leading to a positive radiative forcing and a warming of climate and can also impact human health through their impact on the respiratory system. The state of mixing of BC with other aerosol species, particularly the degree of internal/external mixing, has been highlighted as a major uncertainty in assessing its radiative forcing and hence its climate impact, but few in situ observations of mixing state exist. We present airborne single particle soot photometer (SP2) measurements of refractory BC (rBC) mass concentrations and mixing state coupled with aerosol composition and optical properties measured in urban plumes and regional pollution over the United Kingdom. All data were obtained using instrumentation flown on the UK's BAe-146-301 large Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA) operated by the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM). We measured sub-micron aerosol composition using an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) and used positive matrix factorization to separate hydrocarbon-like (HOA) and oxygenated organic aerosols (OOA). We found a higher number fraction of thickly coated rBC particles in air masses with large OOA relative to HOA, higher ozone-to-nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratios and large concentrations of total sub-micron aerosol mass relative to rBC mass concentrations. The more ozone- and OOA-rich air masses were associated with transport from continental Europe, while plumes from UK cities had higher HOA and NOx and fewer thickly coated rBC particles. We did not observe any significant change in the rBC mass absorption efficiency calculated from rBC mass and light absorption coefficients measured by a particle soot absorption photometer despite observing significant changes in aerosol composition and rBC mixing state. The contributions of light scattering and absorption to total extinction (quantified by the single scattering albedo; SSA) did change for different air masses, with lower SSA observed in urban plumes compared to regional aerosol (0.85 versus 0.9-0.95). We attribute these differences to the presence of relatively rapidly formed secondary aerosol, primarily OOA and ammonium nitrate, which must be taken into account in radiative forcing calculations.

Is journalism failing on climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, Stefan

2012-12-01

How can we build a reliable and affordable energy supply based on renewables? How rapidly do we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions to keep climate change within manageable bounds? What does it take to maintain a stable common currency of different nations? These are just a few examples of questions that are critical for our future and that require an understanding of complex systems—the energy system, the climate system, the financial system. Finding sound answers to these questions requires sophisticated scientific analysis and expert knowledge; a lay person's intuition will clearly not suffice. Yet, decisions in a democracy are (and should be!) taken by politicians and the voting public who are not usually scientific experts. Hence the well-being of our societies—and even more so the living conditions of future generations, which are defined by the decisions we take today—depends on the wider public being well informed about the state of scientific knowledge and discourse. The media are the most important means by which lay people obtain their information about science. Good science journalism is therefore a decisive factor for the long-term success of modern society. Good science journalism clearly must be critical journalism, and it requires journalists who know what is what, who can put things into a perspective, and who are able to make well-informed judgements. After all, the role of science journalism is not simply to act as a 'translator' who conveys the findings of scientists in a language understandable to lay people. Rather, good science journalism will provide the public with a realistic impression of what is well established in science and what are current 'hot topics', uncertainties and controversies. It will also discuss the methods and social context of the scientific endeavour. There is ample evidence that in the area of climate science, journalism too often is failing to deliver this realistic picture to its audience, despite many good science journalists. Perhaps this can be most clearly seen from the end result: does the public have a realistic understanding of climate science? Data from the world's prime science nation, the US, suggest not. To give just one striking example, a representative poll conducted by Yale and George Mason Universities (Leiserowitz et al 2011) in 2011 asked the US public what percentage of climate scientists think that global warming is happening. The true answer is a number well above 95%, as surveys of climate scientists or the scientific literature show (Anderegg et al 2010, Doran and Kendall Zimmerman 2009, Oreskes 2004), fully consistent with my own direct experience of working in the climate science community over the past twenty years. But only a small minority (13%) of the survey respondents picked the correct category (81-100%). The largest group of respondents (24%) chose the category 41-60%, i.e. they erroneously thought there are two roughly equal camps in climate science—and this despite the question not even being about the anthropogenic contribution to global warming, but only about the measured fact that global climate is warming! That shows that the general public, at least in the US, has no idea of the very broad consensus that exists in the scientific community about fundamental aspects of climate change. How can such a vast misconception of what is controversial and what is well-established in climate science come about? Important evidence is provided by the analyses of media articles on climate change in six countries just published by James Painter, a BBC journalist for many years, and Teresa Ashe from the University of London (Painter and Ashe 2012). Painter and Ashe analysed climate articles in quality newspapers in the USA, Brazil, China, France, India and the UK over two periods in 2007 and 2009/2010. They find that the voices of 'climate sceptics' are particularly present in the US and the UK, namely in one third and one fifth of the examined articles (respectively) during the latter time period. The US and the UK also were the only of the six countries where 'type 1' sceptics (Rahmstorf 2004)—those that deny even the existence of global warming—got a significant media airing. The 'sceptical voices' are particularly prevalent in right-leaning papers. What could be wrong about airing sceptical voices? In principle that is one of the strengths of free societies, of course, but in my view two problems can arise. Problem one occurs if the overall balance is so skewed that the public is given a seriously false impression of the scientific discourse: a phenomenon known as 'balance as bias' (Boykoff and Boykoff 2004). Media tend to balance statements with opposing views, which is fine with matters of opinion. But this tendency to 'quote the other side' then gives the public the erroneous concept of there being 'two equal camps' in science, as the poll cited above shows. The late Steven Schneider, one of the great communicators of climate science, used to say that this is as if with each report of a satellite launch, someone from the Flat Earth Society was quoted for balance. Problem number two arises if the facts are outright wrong. To give one example, the British TV documentary 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' claimed that volcanoes emit more carbon dioxide than human activities, in a bizarre brew with many other falsehoods, deceptive graphs and fabricated data. A representative of Channel 4, where the documentary was first broadcast, justified this by stating: 'this is a controversial film but we feel that it is important that all sides of the debate are aired' (Wikipedia 2012). Again the false impression of a 'debate' was promoted about issues where none exists, instead of shedding light on the real controversies which of course can be found in climate science just like in any other field of research. But how is the viewer to know, e.g., that in reality anthropogenic CO2 emissions are a hundred times greater than volcanic ones (Gerlach 2011)? How ethical is it to present false claims as 'other side of the debate'? I suspect that in a TV documentary about history, a similarly cavalier attitude about well-documented facts would be unthinkable. Even some high-quality media are affected by the atmosphere created by the aggressive lobbying activity of 'climate sceptics' interest groups. Some time ago, an otherwise excellent article on sea level rise in a US newspaper cited a 'climate sceptic' falsely claiming that the current sea level rise had been on-going since the end of the last Ice Age. I asked the author, a good environment reporter, why she included this false claim by a scientist who is not noted for any research on sea level. She responded that in the US, she cannot publish articles on climate change without citing a 'sceptic', even though she knew well the statement was wrong. You would not find newspapers that routinely seek commentary on soccer tactics from a golfer or tennis player who claims that everything that the successful soccer practitioners say is wrong. Or newspapers that would print the views on the latest heart transplantation techniques by a dentist who muddles even simple verifiable facts on the matter. In climate reporting, though, such things are commonplace. Yet it has never been easier to find out who the successful practitioners of science, i.e. the genuine experts, in a given research field are, thanks to the online scientific publication and citation databases. Of course, as in every science, many issues are legitimately debated amongst climate scientists. But these real controversies are quite different from the fake controversies about global warming pushed into the media by various ill-informed lay people, pseudo-experts and hardboiled interest groups. Far too few journalists have bothered to investigate and describe the activities of such interest groups, like the Heartland Institute in the US, which in a bill-board campaign earlier this year likened those who accept the facts of global warming to mass murderers (Hickman 2012). Yet the public also needs to understand the background story about where the 'climate sceptics' claims originate and who finances their dissemination. Let us hope that the study by Painter and Ashe will help to initiate a critical discussion on climate science coverage in the media, particularly in 'Anglo-Saxon' countries, and help to improve it in future. There are so many science journalists out there who work hard every day, striving for quality under most difficult working conditions. Their efforts should not be in vain. References Anderegg W R L et al 2010 Expert credibility in climate change Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107 12107-9 Boykoff M T and Boykoff J M 2004 Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press Glob. Environ. Change—Human Policy Dimen. 14 125-36 Doran P and Kendall Zimmerman M 2009 Examining the scientific consensus on climate change EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 90 22 Gerlach T 2011 Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 92 201-8 Hickman L 2012 Heartland Institute compares belief in global warming to mass murder Guardian (www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/may/04/heartland-institute-global-warming-murder) Leiserowitz A et al 2011 Global Warming's Six Americas, May 2011 (New Haven, CT: Yale University and George Mason University) p 57(http:/environment.yale.edu/climate/files/SixAmericasMay2011.pdf) Oreskes N 2004 Beyond the ivory tower—the scientific consensus on climate change Science 306 1686 Painter J and Ashe T 2012 Cross-national comparison of the presence of climate scepticism in the print media in six countries, 2007-10 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044005 Rahmstorf S 2004 The climate skeptics Weather Catastrophes and Climate Change—Is There Still Hope for Us? ed Re Munich (Munich: Munich Re) pp 76-83 Wikipedia 2012 The Great Global Warming Swindle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle, accessed 17 October 2012)

Understanding how transport choices are affected by the environment and health: views expressed in a study on the use of carbon calculators.

PubMed

Chatterton, T J; Coulter, A; Musselwhite, C; Lyons, G; Clegg, S

2009-01-01

To examine the influence that the provision of environmental information might be able to make on personal travel behaviour through analysis of the views of members of the public expressed in a study for the UK Department for Transport on attitudes towards carbon calculator tools. A three-stage qualitative survey taking an ideographic approach to analysing public attitudes to the use of carbon calculator tools in relation to making transport decisions. Interviews and discussion groups with stakeholders, non-users and users providing extensive data that were analysed using the British Market Research Bureau's matrix mapping methodology. Despite considerable awareness of climate change as an issue, personal carbon emissions were not found to have much influence on personal transport choice, which could be seen as being dominated by issues of cost (both in time and money), comfort and convenience. The spatial and temporal dislocation of the cause and effects of climate change make it difficult to link the impacts of personal travel behaviour with specific activities. If environmental- and health-based information is to be provided as a lever to change travel behaviour, it may be necessary to provide information on issues such as local air pollution and personal health impacts in order to link wider benefits with a travel user's self-interest.

Police close unsolved 'climategate' investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavender, Gemma

2012-09-01

Police in Norfolk in the UK have closed an investigation into the hacking of e-mails at the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU) after admitting that they will not be able to find the hackers who broke into CRU computer servers.

Nuclear fission: the interplay of science and technology.

PubMed

Stoneham, A M

2010-07-28

When the UK's Calder Hall nuclear power station was connected to the grid in 1956, the programmes that made this possible involved a powerful combination of basic and applied research. Both the science and the engineering were novel, addressing new and challenging problems. That the last Calder Hall reactor was shut down only in 2003 attests to the success of the work. The strengths of bringing basic science to bear on applications continued to be recognized until the 1980s, when government and management fashions changed. This paper identifies a few of the technology challenges, and shows how novel basic science emerged from them and proved essential in their resolution. Today, as the threat of climate change becomes accepted, it has become clear that there is no credible solution without nuclear energy. The design and construction of new fission reactors will need continuing innovation, with the interplay between the science and technology being a crucial component.

Is a healthy diet an environmentally sustainable diet?

PubMed

Macdiarmid, Jennie I

2013-02-01

The concept of a healthy and environmentally sustainable diet is not new, but with increasing concern about future global food security and climate change there is a renewed interest in this topic. Dietary intakes in UK accounts for approximately 20-30% of total annual greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), with the greatest contributions coming from high intakes of meat and dairy products. Dietary proposals to help mitigate climate change (i.e. reduce GHGE) have focused on reducing consumption of meat and dairy products, but this must be considered in the context of the whole diet, alongside any possible nutritional consequences for health. Bringing together health and environmental impact of the diet raises the question of whether a healthy diet can also be an environmentally sustainable diet. While recent research showed that it is possible to achieve a realistic diet that meets dietary requirement for health and has lower GHGE, it cannot be assumed that a healthy diet will always have lower GHGE. With different combinations of food it is possible to consume a diet that meets dietary requirements for health, but has high GHGE. It is important to understand what constitutes a sustainable diet, but this then needs to be communicated effectively to try and change well-established dietary intakes of the population. Studies show that understanding of sustainable diets is poor and there are many misconceptions (e.g. the overestimation of the protein requirements for a healthy diet), which could contribute to the barriers towards changing dietary intakes.

The Elum Project: A Network of UK Sites to Understand Land-Use Transitions to Bioenergy and Their Implications for Greenhouse Gas Balance and Carbon Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Z. M.; Alberti, G.; Bottoms, E.; Rowe, R.; Parmar, K.; Marshall, R.; Elias, D.; Smith, P.; Dondini, M.; Pogson, M.; Richards, M.; Finch, J.; Ineson, P.; Keane, B.; Perks, M.; Wilkinson, M.; Yamulki, S.; Donnison, I.; Farrar, K.; Massey, A.; McCalmont, J.; Drewer, J.; Sohi, S.; McNamara, N.; Taylor, G.

2014-12-01

Rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions coupled with an increasing need to address energy security are resulting in the development of cleaner, more sustainable alternatives to traditional fossil fuel sources. Bioenergy crops have been proposed to be able to mitigate the effects of climate change as well as provide increased energy security. The aim of this project is to assess the impact of land conversion to second generation non-food bioenergy crops on GHG balance for several land use transitions, including from arable, grassland and forest. A network of 6 sites was established across the UK to assess the processes underpinning GHG balance and to provide input data to a model being used to assess the sustainability of different land use transitions. Monthly analysis of soil GHGs shows that carbon dioxide contributes most to the global warming potential of these bioenergy crops, irrespective of transition. Nitrous oxide emissions were low for all crops except arable cropping and methane emissions were very low for all sites. Nearly all sites have shown a significant decrease in CO2 flux from the control land use. Eddy flux approaches, coupled with soil assessments show that for the transition from grassland to SRC willow there is a significant reduction in GHG emissions from soil and a negative net ecosystem exchange due to increased GPP and ecosystem respiration. These results suggest for this land use transition to bioenergy in a UK specific context, there may be a net benefit for ecosystem GHG exchange of transition to bioenergy Finally we are developing a meta-modelling tool to allow land use managers to make location-specific, informed decisions about land use change to bioenergy. This work is based on the Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial (ELUM) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). This project is co-ordinated by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (www.elum.ac.uk).

Towards national-scale greenhouse gas emissions evaluation with robust uncertainty estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, Matthew; Swallow, Ben; Lunt, Mark; Manning, Alistair; Ganesan, Anita; Stavert, Ann; Stanley, Kieran; O'Doherty, Simon

2016-04-01

Through the Deriving Emissions related to Climate Change (DECC) network and the Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) programme, the UK's greenhouse gases are now monitored by instruments mounted on telecommunications towers and churches, on a ferry that performs regular transects of the North Sea, on-board a research aircraft and from space. When combined with information from high-resolution chemical transport models such as the Met Office Numerical Atmospheric dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), these measurements are allowing us to evaluate emissions more accurately than has previously been possible. However, it has long been appreciated that current methods for quantifying fluxes using atmospheric data suffer from uncertainties, primarily relating to the chemical transport model, that have been largely ignored to date. Here, we use novel model reduction techniques for quantifying the influence of a set of potential systematic model errors on the outcome of a national-scale inversion. This new technique has been incorporated into a hierarchical Bayesian framework, which can be shown to reduce the influence of subjective choices on the outcome of inverse modelling studies. Using estimates of the UK's methane emissions derived from DECC and GAUGE tall-tower measurements as a case study, we will show that such model systematic errors have the potential to significantly increase the uncertainty on national-scale emissions estimates. Therefore, we conclude that these factors must be incorporated in national emissions evaluation efforts, if they are to be credible.

The role of sustained observations in tracking impacts of environmental change on marine biodiversity and ecosystems

PubMed Central

Mieszkowska, N.; Sugden, H.; Firth, L. B.; Hawkins, S. J.

2014-01-01

Marine biodiversity currently faces unprecedented threats from multiple pressures arising from human activities. Global drivers such as climate change and ocean acidification interact with regional eutrophication, exploitation of commercial fish stocks and localized pressures including pollution, coastal development and the extraction of aggregates and fuel, causing alteration and degradation of habitats and communities. Segregating natural from anthropogenically induced change in marine ecosystems requires long-term, sustained observations of marine biota. In this review, we outline the history of biological recording in the coastal and shelf seas of the UK and Ireland and highlight where sustained observations have contributed new understanding of how anthropogenic activities have impacted on marine biodiversity. The contributions of sustained observations, from those collected at observatories, single station platforms and multiple-site programmes to the emergent field of multiple stressor impacts research, are discussed, along with implications for management and sustainable governance of marine resources in an era of unprecedented use of the marine environment. PMID:25157190

Understanding changes in the UK's CO2 emissions: a global perspective.

PubMed

Baiocchi, Giovanni; Minx, Jan C

2010-02-15

The UK appears to be a leading country in curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Unlike many other developed countries, it has already met its Kyoto obligations and defined ambitious, legally binding targets for the future. Recently this achievement has been called into question as it ignores rapidly changing patterns of production and international trade. We use structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to investigate the drivers behind annual changes in CO(2) emission from consumption in the UK between 1992 and 2004. In contrast with previous SDA-based studies, we apply the decomposition to a global, multiregional input-output model (MRIO), which accounts for UK imports from all regions and uses region-specific production structures and CO(2) intensities. We find that improvements from "domestic" changes in efficiency and production structure led to a 148 Mt reduction in CO(2) emissions, which only partially offsets emission increases of 217 Mt from changes in the global supply chain and from growing consumer demand. Recent emission reductions achieved in the UK are not merely a reflection of a greening of the domestic supply chain, but also of a change in the international division of labor in the global production of goods and services.

Developing awareness of sustainability in nursing and midwifery using a scenario-based approach: Evidence from a pre and post educational intervention study.

PubMed

Richardson, Janet; Grose, Jane; Bradbury, Martyn; Kelsey, Janet

2017-07-01

The delivery of healthcare has an impact on the environment and contributes to climate change. As a consequence, the way in which nurses and midwives use and dispose of natural resources in clinical practice, and the subsequent impact on the environment, should be integral component of nursing and midwifery education. Opportunities need to be found to embed such issues into nursing curricula; thus bringing sustainability issues 'closer to home' and making them more relevant for clinical practice. The study was designed to measure the impact of a sustainability-focussed, scenario-based learning educational intervention on the attitudes and knowledge of student nurses and midwives. Pre test/Post test intervention study using scenario-based learning as the educational intervention. The Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey (SANS_2) was used as the outcome measure. Clinical skills session in a UK University School of Nursing and Midwifery. 676 second year undergraduate nursing and midwifery students. The 7-point scale SANS survey was completed before and after the teaching session; standard non-parametric analysis compared pre and post intervention scores. Changes were observed in attitude towards climate change and sustainability and to the inclusion of these topics within the nursing curricula (p=0.000). Participants demonstrated greater knowledge of natural resource use and the cost of waste disposal following the session (p=0.000). Participants also reported that sessions were realistic, and levels of agreement with statements supporting the value of the session and the interactive nature of delivery were higher following the session. Using a scenario-based learning approach with nursing and midwifery students can change attitudes and knowledge towards sustainability and climate change. Embedding this approach in the context of clinical skills provides a novel and engaging approach that is both educationally sound and clinically relevant. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The impact and importance of intercalibration and intercomparisons for greenhouse gas observational networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavert, Ann; O'Doherty, Simon; Rigby, Matthew; Palmer, Paul; Stanley, Kieran; Young, Dickon; Lunt, Mark; Grant, Aoife; Pitt, Joseph; Bauguitte, Stephane; Helfter, Carole; Mullinger, Neil; Robinson, Andrew; Harris, Neil; Riddick, Stuart; Sonderfeld, Hannah; Boesch, Hartmut; Foster, Grant

2016-04-01

Motivated by the UK 2008 Climate Change Act, which requires the UK to decrease its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% of 1990 levels by 2050, the Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissons (GAUGE) project aims to better quantify UK CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions. As part of this project a UK-focused GHG observational network has been established, drawing together new and existing GHG data streams from regional to global scales. These included high-density regional studies, tall-tower sites, moving platforms (ferry and aircraft) and satellite observations. Under the project these observations will be combined with modelling approaches to better quantify and characterise UK GHG emissions and place them within a global context. This presentation will describe the efforts made to ensure that common calibration scales were used within the GAUGE project and an assessment of the intercomparability of the stationary sites and moving platforms (including 6 near surface regional focused sites, 6 tall tower sites, ferry and aircraft measurements). This assessment was undertaken using both a cylinder intercomparison program (ICP) and a comparison between co-located flask and in situ measurements. The majority of the sites agreed within the WMO comparability guidelines, however, small relative biases in CO2 and CH4 were identified at some sites. These biases generally increased with concentration, with differences up to 0.3ppm in CO2 and 3ppb CH4 observed between tall tower sites and mobile platforms, while larger biases were found at some of the regional study sites. In order to investigate the impact of biases of these types an experiment using pseudo emissions and observations was conducted. To achieve this, sets of emissions estimates for key GHG sources (e.g. for CH4 the sum of anthropogenic, biomass burning, wetlands, rice and oceans and other natural sources) were used to estimate the GHG concentrations at the GAUGE observation sites and mobile platforms via the Met office NAME model. These pseudo observations were then adjusted using a range of biases and simulated calibration offsets. Regional UK emissions were then determined based on inversions performed using the Met office NAME model and hierarchical Bayesian inversion method. Using these emissions estimates we quantified the impact of systematic site biases on derived fluxes, assessing the relevance of the WMO comparability guidelines for our UK study and highlighting the importance of rigorous inter-calibration and comparability of data streams for regional emissions estimation.

Astronomical Constraints on the Duration of Early Jurassic Stages and Global Carbon Cycle and Climatic Perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruhl, M.; Hesselbo, S. P.; Hinnov, L.; Jenkyns, H. C.; Storm, M.; Xu, W.; Riding, J. B.; Ullmann, C. V.

2015-12-01

The Early Jurassic (201.3 to 174.1 Ma) is bracketed by the end-Triassic mass extinction and global warming event, and the Toarcian-Aalenian shift to (global) icehouse conditions (McElwain et al., 1999; Hesselbo et al., 2002; Ruhl et al., 2011; Korte et al., in review). It is further marked by the early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE), with possibly the largest exogenic carbon cycle perturbation of the Mesozoic and related perturbations in global geochemical cycles, climate and the environment, which are linked to large igneous province emplacement in the Karoo-Ferrar region (Jenkyns, 2010; Burgess et al., 2015). Furthermore, Early Jurassic continental rifting and the break-up of Pangaea and subsequent Early Jurassic opening of the Hispanic Corridor and Viking Strait respectively linked the equatorial Tethys Ocean to Eastern Panthalassa and the high-latitude Arctic Boreal realm. This initiated changes in (global) ocean currents and Earth's heat distribution and ultimately was followed by the opening of the proto-North Atlantic (Porter et al., 2013; Korte et al., in review). Here, we present high-resolution (sub-precession scale) elemental concentration data from the Mochras borehole (UK), which represents ~1300m of possibly the most complete and expanded lower Jurassic hemi-pelagic marine sedimentary archive known. We construct a floating ~9 Myr astronomical time-scale for the complete Early Jurassic Pliensbachian stage and biozones. Combined with radiometric and astrochronological constraints on early Jurassic stage boundaries, we construct a new Early Jurassic Time-Scale. With this we assess the duration and rate of change of early Jurassic global carbon cycle and climatic perturbations and we asses fundamental changes in the nature and expression of Early Jurassic long (100 - 1000 kyr) eccentricity cycles.

Risk-based water resources planning: Coupling water allocation and water quality management under extreme droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortazavi-Naeini, M.; Bussi, G.; Hall, J. W.; Whitehead, P. G.

2016-12-01

The main aim of water companies is to have a reliable and safe water supply system. To fulfil their duty the water companies have to consider both water quality and quantity issues and challenges. Climate change and population growth will have an impact on water resources both in terms of available water and river water quality. Traditionally, a distinct separation between water quality and abstraction has existed. However, water quality can be a bottleneck in a system since water treatment works can only treat water if it meets certain standards. For instance, high turbidity and large phytoplankton content can increase sharply the cost of treatment or even make river water unfit for human consumption purposes. It is vital for water companies to be able to characterise the quantity and quality of water under extreme weather events and to consider the occurrence of eventual periods when water abstraction has to cease due to water quality constraints. This will give them opportunity to decide on water resource planning and potential changes to reduce the system failure risk. We present a risk-based approach for incorporating extreme events, based on future climate change scenarios from a large ensemble of climate model realisations, into integrated water resources model through combined use of water allocation (WATHNET) and water quality (INCA) models. The annual frequency of imposed restrictions on demand is considered as measure of reliability. We tested our approach on Thames region, in the UK, with 100 extreme events. The results show increase in frequency of imposed restrictions when water quality constraints were considered. This indicates importance of considering water quality issues in drought management plans.

Towards a long-term Science Exploitation Plan for the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer on Sentinel-3 and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remedios, John J.; Llewellyn-Jones, David

2014-05-01

The Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) on Sentinel-3 is the latest satellite instrument in a series of dual-angle optical and thermal sensors, the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs). Operating on Sentinel-3, the SLSTR has a number of significant improvements compared to the original ATSRs including wider swaths for nadir and dual angles, emphasis on all surface temperature domains, dedicated fire channels and additional cloud channels. The SLSTR therefore provides some excellent opportunities to extend science undertaken with the ATSRs whilst also providing long-term data sets to investigate climate change. The European Space Agency, together with the Department of Energy and Climate Change, sponsored the production of an Exploitation Plan for the ATSRs. In the last year, this been extended to cover the SLSTR also. The plan enables UK and European member states to plan activities related to SLSTR in a long-term context. Covering climate change, oceanography, land surface, atmosphere and cryosphere science, particular attention is paid to the exploitation of long-term data sets. In the case of SLSTR, relevant products include sea, land, lake and ice surface temperatures; aerosols and clouds; fires and gas flares; land surface reflectances. In this presentation, the SLSTR and ATSR science Exploitation Plan will be outlined with emphasis on SLSTR science opportunities, on appropriate co-ordinating mechanisms and on example implementation plans. Particular attention will be paid to the challenges of linking ATSR records with SLSTR to provide consistent long-term data sets, and on the international context of such data sets. The exploitation plan approach to science may prove relevant and useful for other Sentinel instruments.

Review of Mitigation Costs for Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.; O'Neill, B. C.

2014-12-01

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid future climate change comes at a cost, because low-emission technologies are more expensive than GHG-emitting technology options. The increase in mitigation cost is not linearly related to the stabilization level, though: the first emission reductions are relatively cheap, but deeper emission reductions become more expensive. Therefore, emission reduction to medium levels of GHG concentrations , such as 4.5 or 6 W/m2, is considerably cheaper than emission reduction to low levels of GHG concentrations, such as 2.6 or 3.7 W/m2. Moreover, mitigation costs are influenced by many other aspects than the targeted mitigation level alone, such as whether or not certain technologies are available or societally acceptable (Kriegler et al., 2014); the rate of technological progress and cost reduction of low-emission technologies; the level of final energy demand (Riahi et al., 2011), and the level of global cooperation and trade in emission allowances (den Elzen and Höhne, 2010). This paper reviews the existing literature on greenhouse gas mitigation costs. We analyze the available data on mitigation costs and draw conclusions on how these change for different stabilization levels of GHG concentrations. We will take into account the aspects of technology, energy demand, and cooperation in distinguishing differences between scenarios and stabilization levels. References: den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2C. Climate Policy 10, 247-260. Kriegler, E., Weyant, J., Blanford, G., Krey, V., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Richels, R., Rose, S., Tavoni, M., Vuuren, D., 2014. The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Climatic Change, 1-15. Riahi, K., Dentener, F., Gielen, D., Grubler, A., Jewell, J., Klimont, Z., Krey, V., McCollum, D., Pachauri, S., Rao, S., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D.P., Wilson, C., 2011. Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development, The Global Energy Assessment: Toward a More Sustainable Future. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Talking Climate: Why Facts are Not Enough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.

2014-12-01

The challenge posed by human-induced climate change to society and the natural environment has been established by thousands of peer-reviewed studies, many of which have appeared in AGU journals and have been presented at AGU meetings such as this one. This literature has in turn been carefully and methodically summarized by decades' worth of exhaustive reports by Royal Societies, National Academies, federal agencies, and the IPCC, many of which clearly document the solid science, the emerging consequences, and the future risks of climate change at the global, national, and even regional scale. In the U.S., the most recent Third National Climate Assessment vividly illustrates how warming temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and increasing risk of weather extremes are already affecting agriculture, infrastructure, human health, natural resources, and water supplies. In many sectors, the risk of severe and even potentially dangerous impacts increases with higher levels of carbon emissions and global warming. As the scientific evidence builds, however, public and political opinion in the U.S.—as well as in other developed nations including Australia, the U.K., and Canada—remains sharply divided. Social science has established that this divergence in opinions on global warming tends to run along ideological, socio-economic, religious, and even racial lines. Polling has also shown how public polarization on climate change has increased, rather than decreased, over time. Understanding the reasons that have created and fed this polarization is crucial to the success of outreach efforts that attempt to bridge this divide. The main reason for this divergence is not a deficit of information or knowledge among the public. Instead, there are a plethora of causes that can be variously categorized as psychological, societal, political, and economic. The diversity of these barriers helps explain why no single message or campaign has been able to successfully turn the tide of public opinion. By identifying each of these barriers, however, I will share from my experience how it is possible to bypass much of the "he said-she said" stalemate that occurs in media and outreach activities, transitioning instead towards positive discussion based on a foundation of shared values and concern.

Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2007-12-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

Accurate 3D point cloud comparison and volumetric change analysis of Terrestrial Laser Scan data in a hard rock coastal cliff environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earlie, C. S.; Masselink, G.; Russell, P.; Shail, R.; Kingston, K.

2013-12-01

Our understanding of the evolution of hard rock coastlines is limited due to the episodic nature and ';slow' rate at which changes occur. High-resolution surveying techniques, such as Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), have just begun to be adopted as a method of obtaining detailed point cloud data to monitor topographical changes over short periods of time (weeks to months). However, the difficulties involved in comparing consecutive point cloud data sets in a complex three-dimensional plane, such as occlusion due to surface roughness and positioning of data capture point as a result of a consistently changing environment (a beach profile), mean that comparing data sets can lead to errors in the region of 10 - 20 cm. Meshing techniques are often used for point cloud data analysis for simple surfaces, but in surfaces such as rocky cliff faces, this technique has been found to be ineffective. Recession rates of hard rock coastlines in the UK are typically determined using aerial photography or airborne LiDAR data, yet the detail of the important changes occurring to the cliff face and toe are missed using such techniques. In this study we apply an algorithm (M3C2 - Multiscale Model to Model Cloud Comparison), initially developed for analysing fluvial morphological change, that directly compares point to point cloud data using surface normals that are consistent with surface roughness and measure the change that occurs along the normal direction (Lague et al., 2013). The surfaces changes are analysed using a set of user defined scales based on surface roughness and registration error. Once the correct parameters are defined, the volumetric cliff face changes are calculated by integrating the mean distance between the point clouds. The analysis has been undertaken at two hard rock sites identified for their active erosion located on the UK's south west peninsular at Porthleven in south west Cornwall and Godrevy in north Cornwall. Alongside TLS point cloud data, in-situ measurements of the nearshore wave climate, using a pressure transducer, offshore wave climate from a directional wavebuoy, and rainfall records from nearby weather stations were collected. Combining beach elevation information from the georeferenced point clouds with a continuous time series of wave climate provides an indication of the variation in wave energy delivered to the cliff face. The rates of retreat were found to agree with the existing rates that are currently used in shoreline management. The additional geotechnical detail afforded by applying the M3C2 method to a hard rock environment provides not only a means of obtaining volumetric changes with confidence, but also a clear illustration of the locations of failure on the cliff face. Monthly cliff scans help to narrow down the timings of failure under energetic wave conditions or periods of heavy rainfall. Volumetric changes and sensitive regions to failure established using this method allows us to capture episodic changes to the cliff face at a high resolution (1 - 2 cm) that are otherwise missed using lower resolution techniques typically used for shoreline management, and to understand in greater detail the geotechnical behaviour of hard rock cliffs and determine rates of erosion with greater accuracy.

Bringing (domestic) politics back in: global and local influences on health equity.

PubMed

Schrecker, Ted

2015-07-01

The Lancet-University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for health correctly concluded that: 'with globalization, health inequity increasingly results from transnational activities that involve actors with different interests and degrees of power'. At the same time, taking up that Commission's focus on political determinants of health and 'power asymmetries' requires recognizing the interplay of globalization with domestic politics, and the limits of global influences as explanations for policies that affect health inequalities. I make this case using three examples - trade policy, climate change policy, and the domestic politics of poverty reduction and social policy - and a concluding observation about the 2015 UK election. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rising susceptibility of freshwater DOC inputs to extreme events? The implications of underlying changes in atmospheric deposition and land-management. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, C.; Monteith, D.; Jones, T.; Burden, A.; Peacock, M.; Gauci, V.; Page, S. E.; Moore, S.

2013-12-01

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) represents a significant loss term within the carbon (C) balance of many terrestrial ecosystems, and a quantitatively important and reactive C input to many freshwater ecosystems. DOC concentrations have risen dramatically, over a period of decades, in rivers and lakes draining semi-natural catchments across large areas of Northern Europe and Northeast North America, with wide-ranging consequences for C cycling, aquatic ecosystem functioning and drinking water treatment. These increases have been variously attributed to climatic changes, including increased incidence of extreme events, as well as land-management factors and changes in atmospheric deposition. A growing body of evidence now indicates that the primary driver of rising DOC has been ecosystem recovery from the historic effects of acid deposition, and thus that observed increases - whilst sometimes economically problematic - may represent a return to pre-industrial baseline conditions. In light of the apparent dominance of acidity change as a driver of recent freshwater DOC increases, we consider whether or not other potential drivers of change, including climatic extremes and management-related disturbances, are likely to exert a significant influence on the transport of DOC from catchments to surface waters. We conclude that the alleviation of acidification pressures has now made catchments in regions formerly impacted by sulphur pollution much more susceptible to extreme events and disturbances. Drawing on monitoring and experimental case studies from the UK, we suggest that DOC export from organic soils may be shifting from ';solubility controlled' to ';supply controlled', and that climatic events leading to enhanced DOC production (e.g. high temperatures or drought-rewet cycles) and/or shallow lateral transport (e.g. high flow events) are now generating freshwater DOC peaks that are unprecedented in the monitoring record. We also examine the role of land-management as a control on DOC leaching, focusing on the influence of peatland drainage on sites ranging from the UK to Southeast Asia. Again, we conclude that anthropogenic modification of peat hydrology has contributed both to increases in baseline rates of DOC export, and to the enhanced susceptibility of these ecosystems to extreme events. An example is presented of the impact of an uncontrolled fire on DOC export from a drained peatland in Borneo. We develop a conceptual model of the integrated effect of multiple environmental drivers on DOC export from peats and organo-mineral soils, and consider how projected changes in these drivers might be expected to alter the supply and behaviour of freshwater DOC in future. References Evans CD, Jones TG, Burden A et al. (2012) Acidity controls on dissolved organic carbon mobility in organic soils. Global Change Biology 18, 3317-3331. Monteith DT, Stoddard JL, Evans CD et al. (2007). Rising freshwater dissolved organic carbon driven by changes in atmospheric deposition. Nature 450, 537-540. Moore S, Evans CD, Page SE et al. (2013). Deep instability of deforested tropical peatlands revealed by fluvial organic carbon fluxes, Nature 493, 660-664.

Developing a historical climatology of Wales from Welsh and English language sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, N.; Davies, S. J.; Jones, C. A.; Charnell-White, C.

2009-04-01

Historical documentary records are recognised as valuable in understanding long term climate variability. In the UK, the Central England Temperature Series (1772- ) and the Lamb weather catalogue (1861- ) provide a detailed climate record for England, but the value of these archives in Wales and Scotland is more limited, though some long term instrumental series exist, particularly for cities such as Cardiff. The spatial distance from the central England area and a lower density of instrumental stations in Wales has limited understanding of climate variability during the instrumental period (~1750- ). This paper illustrates that historical documentary records represent a considerable resource, that to date have been underutilised in developing a more complete understanding of past weather and climate within many parts of Western Europe.

Joseph S. Weiner and the foundation of post-WW II human biology in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Little, Michael A; Collins, Kenneth J

2012-01-01

Both the United States and the United Kingdom experienced a transformation in the science of physical anthropology from the period before World War II until the post-war period. In the United States, Sherwood L. Washburn is credited with being a leading figure in this transformation. In the United Kingdom, two individuals were instrumental in bringing about a similar change in the profession. These were Joseph S. Weiner at the University of Oxford and Nigel Barnicot at the University of London, with Weiner playing the principal role as leader in what Washburn called the "New Physical Anthropology," that is, the application of evolutionary theory, the de-emphasis on race classification, and the application of the scientific method and experimental approaches to problem solving. Weiner's contributions to physical anthropology were broad-based--climatic and work physiology, paleoanthropology, and human variation--in what became known as human biology in the U.K. and human adaptability internationally. This biographical essay provides evidence for the significant influence of J.S. Weiner on the post-war development of human biology (biological or physical anthropology) inthe U.K. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Optimization of rotating equipment in offshore wind farm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okunade, O. A.

2014-07-01

The paper considered the improvement of rotating equipment in a wind farm, and how these could maximise the farm power capacity. It aimed to increase capacity of electricity generation through a renewable source in UK and contribute to 15 per cent energy- consumption target, set by EU on electricity through renewable sources by 2020. With reference to a case study in UK offshore wind farm, the paper analysed the critique of the farm, as a design basis for its optimization. It considered power production as design situation, load cases and constraints, in order to reflect characteristics and behaviour of a standard design. The scope, which considered parts that were directly involved in power generation, covered rotor blades and the impacts of gearbox and generator to power generation. The scope did not however cover support structures like tower design. The approaches of detail data analysis of the blade at typical wind load conditions, were supported by data from acceptable design standards, relevant authorities and professional bodies. The findings in proposed model design showed at least over 3 per cent improvement on the existing electricity generation. It also indicated overall effects on climate change.

The application of liquid air energy storage for large scale long duration solutions to grid balancing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brett, Gareth; Barnett, Matthew

2014-12-01

Liquid Air Energy Storage (LAES) provides large scale, long duration energy storage at the point of demand in the 5 MW/20 MWh to 100 MW/1,000 MWh range. LAES combines mature components from the industrial gas and electricity industries assembled in a novel process and is one of the few storage technologies that can be delivered at large scale, with no geographical constraints. The system uses no exotic materials or scarce resources and all major components have a proven lifetime of 25+ years. The system can also integrate low grade waste heat to increase power output. Founded in 2005, Highview Power Storage, is a UK based developer of LAES. The company has taken the concept from academic analysis, through laboratory testing, and in 2011 commissioned the world's first fully integrated system at pilot plant scale (300 kW/2.5 MWh) hosted at SSE's (Scottish & Southern Energy) 80 MW Biomass Plant in Greater London which was partly funded by a Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) grant. Highview is now working with commercial customers to deploy multi MW commercial reference plants in the UK and abroad.

Managing the Tensions between Maintaining Academic Standards and the Commercial Imperative in a UK Private Sector Higher Education Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pitcher, Graham Simons

2013-01-01

In a changing landscape of higher education, universities have been moving towards a market-led approach to strategic management. This paper examines the case of a UK private sector education provider that gained degree-awarding powers following changes made in 2004 by the UK Government to the accreditation criteria for recognised degree-awarding…

Can we use Earth Observations to improve monthly water level forecasts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, L. J.; Villarini, G.

2017-12-01

Dynamical-statistical hydrologic forecasting approaches benefit from different strengths in comparison with traditional hydrologic forecasting systems: they are computationally efficient, can integrate and `learn' from a broad selection of input data (e.g., General Circulation Model (GCM) forecasts, Earth Observation time series, teleconnection patterns), and can take advantage of recent progress in machine learning (e.g. multi-model blending, post-processing and ensembling techniques). Recent efforts to develop a dynamical-statistical ensemble approach for forecasting seasonal streamflow using both GCM forecasts and changing land cover have shown promising results over the U.S. Midwest. Here, we use climate forecasts from several GCMs of the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) alongside 15-minute stage time series from the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) and land cover classes extracted from the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative 300 m annual Global Land Cover time series. With these data, we conduct systematic long-range probabilistic forecasting of monthly water levels in UK catchments over timescales ranging from one to twelve months ahead. We evaluate the improvement in model fit and model forecasting skill that comes from using land cover classes as predictors in the models. This work opens up new possibilities for combining Earth Observation time series with GCM forecasts to predict a variety of hazards from space using data science techniques.

Grassland futures in Great Britain - Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities.

PubMed

Qi, Aiming; Holland, Robert A; Taylor, Gail; Richter, Goetz M

2018-09-01

To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961-1990) at 1km 2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO 2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72milliontonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21∗10 6 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance of the JULES land surface model for UK Biogenic VOC emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayman, Garry; Comyn-Platt, Edward; Vieno, Massimo; Langford, Ben

2017-04-01

Emissions of biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) are important for air quality and tropospheric composition. Through their contribution to the production of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA), biogenic VOCs indirectly contribute to climate forcing and climate feedbacks [1]. Biogenic VOCs encompass a wide range of compounds and are produced by plants for growth, development, reproduction, defence and communication [2]. There are both biological and physico-chemical controls on emissions [3]. Only a few of the many biogenic VOCs are of wider interest and only two or three (isoprene and the monoterpenes, α- and β-pinene) are represented in chemical transport models. We use the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), the UK community land surface model, to estimate biogenic VOC emission fluxes. JULES is a process-based model that describes the water, energy and carbon balances and includes temperature, moisture and carbon stores [4, 5]. JULES currently provides emission fluxes of the 4 largest groups of biogenic VOCs: isoprene, terpenes, methanol and acetone. The JULES isoprene scheme uses gross primary productivity (GPP), leaf internal carbon and the leaf temperature as a proxy for the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis [6]. In this study, we compare JULES biogenic VOC emission estimates of isoprene and terepenes with (a) flux measurements made at selected sites in the UK and Europe and (b) gridded estimates for the UK from the EMEP/EMEP4UK atmospheric chemical transport model [7, 8], using site-specific or EMEP4UK driving meteorological data, respectively. We compare the UK-scale emission estimates with literature estimates. We generally find good agreement in the comparisons but the estimates are sensitive to the choice of the base or reference emission potentials. References (1) Unger, 2014: Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8563, doi:10.1002/2014GL061616; (2) Laothawornkitkul et al., 2009: New Phytol., 183, 27, doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.02859.x; (3) Grote and Niinemets, 2008: Plant Biol., 10, 8, doi:10.1055/s-2007-964975; (4) Best et al., 2011: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011; (5) Clark et al., 2011: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011; (6) Pacifico et al., 2011: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4371, doi:10.5194/acp-11-4371-2011; [7] Simpson et al., 2012: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 7825, doi: 10.5194/acp-12-7825-2012; [8] Vieno et al., 2016: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 265, doi: 10.5194/acp-16-265-2016.

Modifications to the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Continuum by Hedgerows - Observations from a field site in Northern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coates, Victoria; Pattison, Ian

2016-04-01

UK farming practices have changed significantly over the past 100 years. This is evident in arable fields, where the use of larger machinery has led to the removal of hedgerows. In the River Skell catchment, in Yorkshire, UK this has led to a doubling in field size since 1892. The national-wide change is responsible for longer slope lengths, increased runoff velocities and greater potential for connectivity, which may be responsible for an increase in flood risk at the catchment scale. However there is a lack of physical evidence to support this theory. Hedgerows are a widespread, man-made boundary feature in the rural UK landscape. They play an important ecological role in providing shelter, changing the local climate, reducing erosion and have a strong influence on local soil properties. Their impact on hydrology has not been widely studied but it is hypothesised that their presence could alter soil moisture levels and the soil structure, therefore affecting runoff. This paper presents observations of a hedgerow on the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Continuum, through 15 months field monitoring conducted in the River Skell catchment. Firstly, to assess soil moisture levels TDR probes were installed at different depths and distances from the hedgerow. To assess the soil quality and therefore its infiltration capacity, soil cores were collected to determine soil horizons and root density. Also, laboratory tests were undertaken to determine the soil type and the porosity. Secondly, to assess the physical impact of the hedgerow plant on the partitioning of rainfall, gauges were installed to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall, along a transect perpendicular to the hedgerow, as well as stemflow. Throughfall gauges were also installed within the hedgerow and leaf area index calculated. Thirdly, to assess the impact of the hedgerow on the micro-climate, temperature sensors and four leaf wetness sensors were installed to determine evapotranspiration and interception rates. Results from the TDR probes show that soil moisture levels next to the hedgerow rise earlier and fall quicker, than the probes further from the hedgerow, where levels rise gradually and fall slowly. Higher soil porosity (5-15%) next to the hedgerow, compared to 1-10m away from the hedgerow and roots extending 1m horizontally from the structure help the soil to drain better. Throughfall experiments along the hedgerow length showed large variations in leaf area index (4.5-0.8) correlating with 33-94% total rainfall capture. Results from the leaf wetness sensors show that the interception of rainfall occurs 10-30 minutes later on leaves inside the hedgerow, in comparison to leaves on the perimeter and that leaves dry much quicker (2-3 hours) inside the hedgerow.

ESA's spaceborne lidar mission ADM-Aeolus; project status and preparations for launch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straume, Anne Grete; Elfving, Anders; Wernham, Denny; de Bruin, Frank; Kanitz, Thomas; Schuettemeyer, Dirk; Bismarck, Jonas von; Buscaglione, Fabio; Lecrenier, O.; McGoldrick, Phil

2018-04-01

ESA's Doppler Wind lidar mission, the Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM-Aeolus, hereafter abbreviated to Aeolus), was chosen as an Earth Explorer Core mission within the Living Planet Programme in 1999. It shall demonstrate the potential of space-based Doppler Wind lidars for operational measurements of wind profiles and their use in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate research. Spin-off products are profiles of cloud and aerosol optical properties. Aeolus carries the novel Doppler Wind lidar instrument ALADIN. The mission prime is Airbus Defence & Space UK (ADS-UK), and the instrument prime is Airbus Defence & Space France (ADS-F).

Groundwater Variability in a Sandstone Catchment and Linkages with Large-scale Climatic Circulatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Bradley, C.

2015-12-01

Groundwater is a crucial water resource that sustains river ecosystems and provides public water supply. Furthermore, during periods of prolonged high rainfall, groundwater-dominated catchments can be subject to protracted flooding. Climate change and associated projected increases in the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes have implications for groundwater levels. This study builds on previous research undertaken on a Chalk catchment by investigating groundwater variability in a UK sandstone catchment: the Tern in Shropshire. In contrast to the Chalk, sandstone is characterised by a more lagged response to precipitation inputs; and, as such, it is important to determine the groundwater behaviour and its links with the large-scale climatic circulation to improve process understanding of recharge, groundwater level and river flow responses to hydroclimatological drivers. Precipitation, river discharge and groundwater levels for borehole sites in the Tern basin over 1974-2010 are analysed as the target variables; and we use monthly gridded reanalysis data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR). First, groundwater variability is evaluated and associations with precipitation / discharge are explored using monthly concurrent and lagged correlation analyses. Second, gridded 20CR reanalysis data are used in composite and correlation analyses to identify the regions of strongest climate-groundwater association. Results show that reasonably strong climate-groundwater connections exist in the Tern basin, with a several months lag. These lags are associated primarily with the time taken for recharge waters to percolate through to the groundwater table. The uncovered patterns improve knowledge of large-scale climate forcing of groundwater variability and may provide a basis to inform seasonal prediction of groundwater levels, which would be useful for strategic water resource planning.

Benchmarking Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Skill in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrigan, Shaun; Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Tanguy, Maliko; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Skilful hydrological forecasts at weekly to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in operational water management, especially during drought conditions. Hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems are an attractive approach as they use two sources of streamflow predictability: (i) initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), where soil moisture, groundwater and snow storage states can provide an estimate of future streamflow situations, and (ii) atmospheric predictability, where skilful forecasts of weather and climate variables can be used to force hydrological models. In the UK, prediction of rainfall at long lead times and for summer months in particular is notoriously difficult given the large degree of natural climate variability in ocean influenced mid-latitude regions, but recent research has uncovered exciting prospects for improved rainfall skill at seasonal lead times due to improved prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, before we fully understand what this improved atmospheric predictability might mean in terms of improved hydrological forecasts, we must first evaluate how much skill can be gained from IHCs alone. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in the absence of skilful future meteorological predictions. The aim of this study is therefore to benchmark when (lead time/forecast initialisation month) and where (spatial pattern/catchment characteristics) ESP is skilful across a diverse set of catchments in the UK. Forecast skill was evaluated seamlessly from lead times of 1-day to 12-months and forecasts were initialised at the first of each month over the 1965-2015 hindcast period. This ESP output also provides a robust benchmark against which to assess how much improvement in skill can be achieved when meteorological forecasts are incorporated (next steps). To provide a 'tough to beat' benchmark, several variants of ESP with increasing complexity were produced, including better model representation of hydrological processes and sub-sampling of historic climate sequences (e.g. NAO+/NAO- years). This work is part of the Improving Predictions of Drought for User Decision Making (IMPETUS) project and provides insight to where advancements in atmospheric predictability is most needed in the UK in the context of water management.

Leading Change in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McRoy, Ian; Gibbs, Paul

2009-01-01

This article considers the situation in the UK higher education system and investigates specifically the leadership practice in a cluster of UK institutions as they changed their status. The research goes further to advocate a form of contextualized leadership that is relevant to higher institutions under change. (Contains 1 figure.)