An alternative approach to modelling HbA1c trajectories in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

McEwan, Phil; Bennett, Hayley; Qin, Lei; Bergenheim, Klas; Gordon, Jason; Evans, Marc

2017-05-01

Time-dependent HbA1c trajectories in health economic models of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are typically informed by the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). However, this approach may not accurately predict HbA1c progression in patients who do not conform to the demographic profile of the original UKPDS cohort. This study aimed to develop an alternative mathematical model (MM) to simulate HbA1c progression in T2DM. A systematic literature review identified studies, published between 2005 and 2015, that reported HbA1c in adult T2DM patients over a minimum duration of 18 months. Pooled data from eligible studies were used to develop an alternative MM equation for HbA1c progression, which was then contrasted with the UKPDS 68 progression equation in illustrative scenarios. A total of 68 studies were eligible for data extraction (mean follow-up time 4.1 years). HbA1c progression was highly heterogeneous across studies, varying with baseline HbA1c, treatment group and patient age. The MM equation was fitted with parameters for mean baseline HbA1c (8.3%), initial change in HbA1c (-0.62%) and upper quartile of maximum observed HbA1c (9.3%). Differences in HbA1c trajectories between the MM and UKPDS approaches altered the timing of therapy escalation in illustrative scenarios. The MM represents an alternative approach to simulate HbA1c trajectories in T2DM models, as UKPDS data may not adequately reflect the heterogeneity of HbA1c profiles observed in clinical studies. However, the choice of approach should ultimately be determined by the characteristics of individual patients under consideration and the clinical face validity of the modelled trajectories. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Methods applied in cost-effectiveness models for treatment strategies in type 2 diabetes mellitus and their use in Health Technology Assessments: a systematic review of the literature from 2008 to 2013.

PubMed

Charokopou, M; Sabater, F J; Townsend, R; Roudaut, M; McEwan, P; Verheggen, B G

2016-01-01

To identify and compare health-economic models that were developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and their use within Health Technology Assessments (HTAs). In total, six commonly used databases were searched for articles published between October 2008 and January 2013, using a protocolized search strategy and inclusion criteria. The websites of HTA organizations in nine countries, and proceedings from five relevant conferences, were also reviewed. The identified new health-economic models were qualitatively assessed using six criteria that were developed based on technical components, and characteristics related to the disease or the treatments being assessed. Finally, the number of times the models were applied within HTA reports, published literature, and/or major conferences was determined. Thirteen new models were identified and reviewed in depth. Most of these were based on identical key data sources, and applied a similar model structure, either using Markov modeling or microsimulation techniques. The UKPDS equations and panel regressions were frequently used to estimate the occurrence of diabetes-related complications and the probability of developing risk factors in the long term. The qualitative assessment demonstrated that the CARDIFF, Sheffield T2DM and ECHO T2DM models seem technically equipped to appropriately assess the long-term health-economic consequences of chronic treatments for patients with T2DM. It was observed that the CORE model is the most widely described in literature and conferences, and the most often applied model within HTA submissions, followed by the CARDIFF and UKPDS models. This research provides an overview of T2DM models that were developed between 2008 and January 2013. The outcomes of the qualitative assessments, combined with frequent use in local reimbursement decisions, prove the applicability of the CORE, CARDIFF and UKPDS models to address decision problems related to the long-term clinical and economic consequences of new and existing T2DM treatments.

Cardiovascular risk outcome and program evaluation of a cluster randomised controlled trial of a community-based, lay peer led program for people with diabetes.

PubMed

Riddell, M A; Dunbar, J A; Absetz, P; Wolfe, R; Li, H; Brand, M; Aziz, Z; Oldenburg, B

2016-08-24

The 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study demonstrated the increasing burden of diabetes and the challenge it poses to the health systems of all countries. The chronic and complex nature of diabetes requires active self-management by patients in addition to clinical management in order to achieve optimal glycaemic control and appropriate use of available clinical services. This study is an evaluation of a "real world" peer support program aimed at improving the control and management of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Australia. The trial used a randomised cluster design with a peer support intervention and routine care control arms and 12-month follow up. Participants in both arms received a standardised session of self-management education at baseline. The intervention program comprised monthly community-based group meetings over 12 months led by trained peer supporters and active encouragement to use primary health care and other community resources and supports related to diabetes. Clinical, behavioural and other measures were collected at baseline, 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome was the predicted 5 year cardiovascular disease risk using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Equation at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included clinical measures, quality of life, measures of support, psychosocial functioning and lifestyle measures. Eleven of 12 planned groups were successfully implemented in the intervention arm. Both the usual care and the intervention arms demonstrated a small reduction in 5 year UKPDS risk and the mean values for biochemical and anthropometric outcomes were close to target at 12 months. There were some small positive changes in self-management behaviours. The positive changes in self-management behaviours among intervention participants were not sufficient to reduce cardiovascular risk, possibly because approximately half of the study participants already had quite well controlled T2DM at baseline. Future research needs to address how to enhance community based programs so that they reach and benefit those most in need of resources and supports to improve metabolic control and associated clinical outcomes. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12609000469213 . Registered 16 June 2009.

The Long and Winding Road to Optimal HbA1c Measurement

PubMed Central

Little, Randie R.; Rohlfing, Curt

2016-01-01

The importance of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) as an indicator of mean glycemia and risks for complications in patients with diabetes mellitus was established by the results of long-term clinical trials, most notably the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), published in 1993 and 1998 respectively. However, clinical application of recommended HbA1c targets that were based on these studies was difficult due to lack of comparability of HbA1c results among assay methods and laboratories. Thus, the National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program (NGSP) was initiated in 1996 with the goal of standardizing HbA1c results to those of the DCCT/UKPDS. HbA1c standardization efforts have been highly successful; however, a number of issues have emerged on the “long and winding road” to better HbA1c, including the development of a higher-order HbA1c reference method by the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC), recommendations to use HbA1c to diagnose as well as monitor diabetes, and point-of-care (POC) HbA1c testing. Here, we review the past, present and future of HbA1c standardization and describe the current status of HbA1c testing, including limitations that healthcare providers need to be aware of when interpreting HbA1c results. PMID:23318564

Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model Methods The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years). Results The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Conclusions Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades. PMID:21214916

Evaluation of the HbA1c Reduction Cut Point for a Nonglycemic Effect on Cardiovascular Benefit of Hypoglycemic Agents in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Based on Endpoint Events.

PubMed

Wu, Yuchao; Tang, Lizhi; Zhang, Fang; Yan, Zhe; Li, Jing; Tong, Nanwei

2018-01-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is a major cause of death among patients with diabetes but can be improved by certain hypoglycemic agents. However, adjudicating criteria on whether improvements are a glycemic or nonglycemic effect of these agents remain unclear. Hypoglycemic agents that produce a cardiovascular benefit in nondiabetic patients are considered to do so via a nonglycemic effect. We performed a subgroup analysis for primary and secondary prevention or very high risk of ASCVD in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Where glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) was reduced to the same extent in a head-to-head comparison, cardiovascular benefits were judged as a nonglycemic effect. Furthermore, by analyzing the endpoints of four important randomized controlled intensive glucose control studies, UKPDS33, ADVANCE, ACCORD, and VADT, we calculated the cut point of HbA1c reduction for a nonglycemic effect on cardiovascular benefit by hypoglycemic agents in ASCVD groups of different severities. For the ASCVD primary prevention group of T2DM, UKPDS33 indicated a reduction in HbA1c < 0.9%, and a cardiovascular benefit within 10 years was considered a nonglycemic effect. For ASCVD secondary prevention or in the very high-risk group, pioglitazone exerted a nonglycemic effect on cardiovascular benefit in nondiabetic patients with insulin resistance; metformin may exert a similar effect in T2DM patients in a head-to-head study. Analysis of T2DM intensive glucose control studies showed a reduction in HbA1c of <1.0%, and a cardiovascular benefit after approximately 5 years was deemed a nonglycemic effect. For ASCVD primary prevention in T2DM, a reduction in HbA1c < 0.9% and a cardiovascular benefit within 10 years were considered a nonglycemic effect. For ASCVD secondary prevention or in a very high-risk population, a reduction in HbA1c < 1.0% and a cardiovascular benefit within about 5 years were also considered a nonglycemic effect.

Cost effectiveness of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) for patients with type 2 diabetes and not on insulin: impact of modelling assumptions on recent Canadian findings.

PubMed

Tunis, Sandra L

2011-11-01

Canadian patients, healthcare providers and payers share interest in assessing the value of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) for individuals with type 2 diabetes but not on insulin. Using the UKPDS (UK Prospective Diabetes Study) model, the Canadian Optimal Prescribing and Utilization Service (COMPUS) conducted an SMBG cost-effectiveness analysis. Based on the results, COMPUS does not recommend routine strip use for most adults with type 2 diabetes who are not on insulin. Cost-effectiveness studies require many assumptions regarding cohort, clinical effect, complication costs, etc. The COMPUS evaluation included several conservative assumptions that negatively impacted SMBG cost effectiveness. Current objectives were to (i) review key, impactful COMPUS assumptions; (ii) illustrate how alternative inputs can lead to more favourable results for SMBG cost effectiveness; and (iii) provide recommendations for assessing its long-term value. A summary of COMPUS methods and results was followed by a review of assumptions (for trial-based glycosylated haemoglobin [HbA(1c)] effect, patient characteristics, costs, simulation pathway) and their potential impact. The UKPDS model was used for a 40-year cost-effectiveness analysis of SMBG (1.29 strips per day) versus no SMBG in the Canadian payer setting. COMPUS assumptions for patient characteristics (e.g. HbA(1c) 8.4%), SMBG HbA(1c) advantage (-0.25%) and costs were retained. As with the COMPUS analysis, UKPDS HbA(1c) decay curves were incorporated into SMBG and no-SMBG pathways. An important difference was that SMBG HbA(1c) benefits in the current study could extend beyond the initial simulation period. Sensitivity analyses examined SMBG HbA(1c) advantage, adherence, complication history and cost inputs. Outcomes (discounted at 5%) included QALYs, complication rates, total costs (year 2008 values) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The base-case ICER was $Can63 664 per QALY gained; approximately 56% of the COMPUS base-case ICER. SMBG was associated with modest risk reductions (0.10-0.70%) for six of seven complications. Assuming an SMBG advantage of -0.30% decreased the current base-case ICER by over $Can10 000 per QALY gained. With adherence of 66% and 87%, ICERs were (respectively) $Can39 231 and $Can54 349 per QALY gained. Incorporating a more representative complication history and 15% complication cost increase resulted in an ICER of $Can49 743 per QALY gained. These results underscore the importance of modelling assumptions regarding the duration of HbA(1c) effect. The current study shares several COMPUS limitations relating to the UKPDS model being designed for newly diagnosed patients, and to randomized controlled trial monitoring rates. Neither study explicitly examined the impact of varying the duration of initial HbA(1c) effects, or of medication or other treatment changes. Because the COMPUS research will potentially influence clinical practice and reimbursement policy in Canada, understanding the impact of assumptions on cost-effectiveness results seems especially important. Demonstrating that COMPUS ICERs were greatly reduced through variations in a small number of inputs may encourage additional clinical research designed to measure SMBG effects within the context of optimal disease management. It may also encourage additional economic evaluations that incorporate lessons learned and best practices for assessing the overall value of SMBG for type 2 diabetes in insulin-naive patients.

Socioeconomic correlates of inpatient spending for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in China: evidence from Hangzhou.

PubMed

Li, H; Chen, B K; Shah, N; Wang, Z; Eggleston, K N

2012-01-01

We evaluated the factors associated with inpatient costs including total costs, pharmaceutical costs and laboratory costs for diabetes-related admissions. Using data for 960 adult patients admitted between May 2005 and April 2008 with a primary or secondary diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital affiliated with Zhejiang University Medical School (SRRSH) in Hangzhou, China, we evaluate the association between patient characteristics and inpatient costs with multivariable regression analyses. Total inpatient costs were positively associated with age, higher UKPDS stroke risk score, and presence of any complication. A regression that included patient socioeconomic and clinical characteristics explained 21.5% of the variation in total inpatient costs; regression estimates indicate that patients with coronary artery disease, retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy, and diabetic foot had inpatient costs that were respectively 93.7%, 14.0%, 17.5%, 11.5% and 89.0% higher than otherwise similar patients without those complications. Pharmaceutical costs did not differ by insurance coverage. Insured patients spent 7-16% more on laboratory tests than otherwise similar patients did. Clinical factors, especially presence of diabetes-related complications, appear to be the primary determinants of variation in inpatient costs for patients with type 2 DM in China. To mitigate the health costs increases associated with China's DM epidemic, policymakers should focus on cost-effective ways to manage patients in outpatient settings to prevent the complications associated with diabetes. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Patient reactions to a web-based cardiovascular risk calculator in type 2 diabetes: a qualitative study in primary care.

PubMed

Nolan, Tom; Dack, Charlotte; Pal, Kingshuk; Ross, Jamie; Stevenson, Fiona A; Peacock, Richard; Pearson, Mike; Spiegelhalter, David; Sweeting, Michael; Murray, Elizabeth

2015-03-01

Use of risk calculators for specific diseases is increasing, with an underlying assumption that they promote risk reduction as users become better informed and motivated to take preventive action. Empirical data to support this are, however, sparse and contradictory. To explore user reactions to a cardiovascular risk calculator for people with type 2 diabetes. Objectives were to identify cognitive and emotional reactions to the presentation of risk, with a view to understanding whether and how such a calculator could help motivate users to adopt healthier behaviours and/or improve adherence to medication. Qualitative study combining data from focus groups and individual user experience. Adults with type 2 diabetes were recruited through website advertisements and posters displayed at local GP practices and diabetes groups. Participants used a risk calculator that provided individualised estimates of cardiovascular risk. Estimates were based on UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) data, supplemented with data from trials and systematic reviews. Risk information was presented using natural frequencies, visual displays, and a range of formats. Data were recorded and transcribed, then analysed by a multidisciplinary group. Thirty-six participants contributed data. Users demonstrated a range of complex cognitive and emotional responses, which might explain the lack of change in health behaviours demonstrated in the literature. Cardiovascular risk calculators for people with diabetes may best be used in conjunction with health professionals who can guide the user through the calculator and help them use the resulting risk information as a source of motivation and encouragement. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Preventable coronary heart disease events from control of cardiovascular risk factors in US adults with diabetes (projections from utilizing the UKPDS risk engine).

PubMed

Wong, Nathan D; Patao, Christopher; Malik, Shaista; Iloeje, Uchenna

2014-04-15

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) carries significant risks for coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the potential US population impact of single and composite risk factor control. Among US adults with diagnosed T2DM aged≥30 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007 to 2012, we assessed CHD events preventable using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study CHD risk engine. We examined in all those not at goal the impact of statistical control of smoking, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, according to the predefined criteria setting risk factors at different levels of control representing (1) "All to Goal," (2) at "Nominal Control," or (3) at "Aggressive Control." Preventable CHD events represented the difference between the number of events estimated from the control of these risk factors versus current levels of the risk factors. Of 606 men (representing 6.2 million) and 603 women (6.3 million) with DM and no previous CHD, 1.3 million men and 0.7 million women would develop a CHD event within 10 years if left uncontrolled. Controlling all risk factors to goal was projected to prevent 35% and 45% of CHD events in men and women, respectively. Nominal risk factor control was projected to prevent 36% and 38% and aggressive control 51% and 61% of CHD events, respectively. In conclusion, a significant proportion of CHD events in adults with T2DM could be prevented from composite control of risk factors often not at goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The cost effectiveness of rapid-acting insulin aspart compared with human insulin in type 2 diabetes patients: an analysis from the Japanese third-party payer perspective.

PubMed

Pollock, R F; Valentine, W J; Pilgaard, T; Nishimura, H

2011-01-01

The Nippon Ultra-Rapid Insulin and Diabetic Complication Evaluation Study (NICE Study) (NCT00575172) was a 5-year, open-label, randomised controlled trial which compared cardiovascular outcomes in Japanese type 2 diabetes patients intensively treated with regular human insulin or insulin aspart (NovoRapid; Novo Nordisk A/S, Bagsvaerd, Denmark), a rapid-acting insulin analogue. The aim of the present analysis was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of insulin aspart versus regular human insulin from the perspective of a Japanese third-party healthcare payer. A discrete event-simulation model was developed in Microsoft Excel to assess the within-trial cost effectiveness and make longer-term clinical projections in patients treated with regular human insulin or insulin aspart. In addition to severe hypoglycaemia, the model captured myocardial and cerebral infarction events and percutaneous coronary intervention and coronary artery bypass graft procedures. Within-trial mortality, incidence of severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular event probabilities were derived from the annual rates observed during the trial period, while post-trial outcomes were calculated using the event rates from the trial, adjusted for increasing patient age. Event costs were accounted from the healthcare payer perspective and expressed in 2008 Japanese yen (JPY), while health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was captured using event and state utilities. Future costs and clinical benefits were discounted at 3% annually. Life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, cardiovascular event rates and costs were evaluated over 5- and 10-year time horizons and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess variability in model outcomes. Over 5 years of treatment, insulin aspart dominated human insulin both in incremental life expectancy and in incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYS). Insulin aspart was associated with a small improvement in discounted life expectancy of 0.005 years (4.688 vs. 4.684 years) and an increase of 0.023 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (3.800 vs. 3.776 QALYs) when compared with regular human insulin. Insulin aspart also incurred lower costs (JPY 481,586 vs. 594,717, difference -113,131) which resulted from the decreased incidence of cardiovascular events with insulin aspart (0.013 events per patient year vs. 0.030 on regular human insulin). Breakdown of costs indicated that pharmacy costs were higher with insulin aspart (JPY 346,608 vs. 278,468), but these costs were more than offset by the reduced costs associated with cardiovascular complications and hypoglycaemia over 5 years of treatment (JPY 134,978 vs. 316,249). Sensitivity analysis showed that insulin aspart was still cost-effective in the case where only 18% of the within-trial cardiovascular and mortality benefit over regular human insulin was captured in the model (assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of JPY 5,000,000). The NICE study cohort was relatively small (n = 325), meaning that caution should be exercised when calculating and interpreting the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Also, despite the differences in cardiovascular risk profile between the Japanese and UK populations, UKPDS-derived risk equations were used to project MI outcomes and PCI and CABG procedures and UKPDS HRQoL scores were applied to all health states. While these risk formulas and HRQoL utilities may not be directly applicable to the Japanese population, no equivalent Japanese-specific data are currently available. In a Japanese type 2 diabetes population, prescribing rapid-acting insulin aspart significantly reduced cardiovascular complications over 5- and 10-year time horizons, resulting in increased quality of life and decreased costs when compared with human insulin.

[Glycemic targets and cardiovascular morbi-mortality].

PubMed

Bordier, Lyse; Bauduceau, Bernard

2013-05-01

The 2008-year was full of learning experience and suspense in diabetologia. The past studies, UKPDS in type 2 diabetic patients and DCCT in type 1 diabetic patients have shown that intensive treatment during a short period did reduce the incidence of microvascular events and in the long term, the incidence of macrovascular events linked to diabetes. The conclusions of recent studies quote, from ACCORD, an increased mortality in the type 2 diabetic patients using intensive therapy, from ADVANCE, a reduction of microvascular complications and from VADT, no effect. The analysis of studies published since 2008 brings lessons for the clinical practice: presence of glycemic memory, absence of tensional memory, usefulness of control of every cardiovascular risk factors, need of early treatment of diabetes. Moreover, to define HbA1c objective, age, duration of diabetes, presence of cardiovascular risk factors, former HbA1c level and potential undesirable effects, such hypoglycaemia, must be considered. The management of type 2 diabetic patients requires an early, not to quick intensive treatment, which avoids hypoglycaemia and is combined with a strict control of cardiovascular risk factors. So, the recent position statement of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) consideres needs and preferences of each patient and individualizes glycemic targets and treatments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

[Antihypertensive treatment for patients with hypertension and diabetes type II--current clinical research].

PubMed

Rajzer, Marek; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Wojciechowska, Wiktoria

2003-01-01

The frequency of arterial hypertension occurrence in polish population amounts to 30-40%, among diabetics is significantly higher-70%. According to the WHO/ISH Guidelines all hypertensive patients with diabetes are included into the "high risk group" independent of hypertension stage. Pharmacological treatment of hypertension is this group of patients has a particular meaning. Among hypertensive patients the degree of blood pressure lowering is more effective for cardiovascular risk reduction than choice of drug. This fact is well documented in clinical trials comparing antihypertensive efficacy of old and new antihypertensive drugs (for example UKPDS, STOP 2, INSIGHT). From the other point of view renal protection and metabolic benefits, as well as reduction of target organ damage are more advantageous for angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor antagonists and calcium antagonists than for diuretics and beta-blockers. Despite fast progress in clinical research on new antihypertensive drugs (especially AT1 receptor inhibitors) ACE-I seem to still remain still the "first choice" for hypertensive diabetics. Adequate blood pressure control among diabetic hypertensives is of special importance and usually needs appropriate combined antihypertensive therapy. Our review presents detailed information about treatment advantages and disadvantages of drugs from different antihypertensive classes in light of current clinical trials and international guidelines.

Estimation of the Long-term Cardiovascular Events Using UKPDS Risk Engine in Metabolic Syndrome Patients.

PubMed

Shivakumar, V; Kandhare, A D; Rajmane, A R; Adil, M; Ghosh, P; Badgujar, L B; Saraf, M N; Bodhankar, S L

2014-03-01

Long-term cardiovascular complications in metabolic syndrome are a major cause of mortality and morbidity in India and forecasted estimates in this domain of research are scarcely reported in the literature. The aim of present investigation is to estimate the cardiovascular events associated with a representative Indian population of patients suffering from metabolic syndrome using United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. Patient level data was collated from 567 patients suffering from metabolic syndrome through structured interviews and physician records regarding the input variables, which were entered into the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. The patients of metabolic syndrome were selected according to guidelines of National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III, modified National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III and International Diabetes Federation criteria. A projection for 10 simulated years was run on the engine and output was determined. The data for each patient was processed using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine to calculate an estimate of the forecasted value for the cardiovascular complications after a period of 10 years. The absolute risk (95% confidence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke for 10 years was 3.79 (1.5-3.2), 9.6 (6.8-10.7), 7.91 (6.5-9.9) and 3.57 (2.3-4.5), respectively. The relative risk (95% confidence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke was 17.8 (12.98-19.99), 7 (6.7-7.2), 5.9 (4.0-6.6) and 4.7 (3.2-5.7), respectively. Simulated projections of metabolic syndrome patients predict serious life-threatening cardiovascular consequences in the representative cohort of patients in western India.

Cost-effectiveness of sitagliptin-based treatment regimens in European patients with type 2 diabetes and haemoglobin A1c above target on metformin monotherapy.

PubMed

Schwarz, B; Gouveia, M; Chen, J; Nocea, G; Jameson, K; Cook, J; Krishnarajah, G; Alemao, E; Yin, D; Sintonen, H

2008-06-01

Sitagliptin is a novel oral incretin enhancer that acts by inhibiting the dipeptidyl peptidase 4 enzyme and is indicated in Europe as a treatment adjunct to metformin (MF), sulphonylurea (SU), MF plus SU and diet and exercise, in the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The objective of the current analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding sitagliptin to the regimens of patients with haemoglobin A1c (HbA1C) above the International Diabetes Federation goal (6.5%) while on MF in six European countries: Austria, Finland, Portugal, Scotland (United Kingdom), Spain and Sweden. A discrete event simulation model, which employed the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model risk equations for predicting risks of diabetes-related complication, was used. Lifetime costs and benefits were projected for alternative treatment strategies of adding sitagliptin, compared with adding rosiglitazone or a SU to MF in patients not at HbA1C goal on MF monotherapy. Changes in HbA1C as well as side effects associated with these different treatment strategies were based on clinical trial data. Mean baseline values from local epidemiologic studies involving patients with type 2 diabetes not at HbA1C goal on MF monotherapy were included in the current analysis. Costs of medications, side effects and direct costs of diabetes-related complications were based on country-specific data. UKPDS-based disutility weights associated with diabetes complications were incorporated. Disutilities associated with medication side effects were based on published data. All future costs and benefits were discounted according to local guidelines on cost-effectiveness analysis. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying key input parameters. The discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) associated with the addition of sitagliptin to MF, compared with adding rosiglitazone, in the different countries analysed ranged from treatment with sitagliptin being dominant (cost saving with improved health outcome) to its being cost-effective [4,766 euros per quality-adjusted life year (QALY)]. Treatment with sitagliptin added to MF was cost-effective compared with adding a SU, with discounted ICER values ranging from 5949 euros/QALY to 20,350 euros/QALY across countries. Sensitivity analyses showed that these results were robust to changes in input parameters, including clinical efficacy, costs and utility weights for both diabetes-related complications and hypoglycaemia. Compared with adding rosiglitazone or a SU to MF, adding sitagliptin to MF is projected to be either cost saving or cost-effective for patients with type 2 diabetes who are not at HbA1C goal on MF.

Serum Levels of Oxidative Stress Markers in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis.

PubMed

Casoinic, F; Sampelean, D; Buzoianu, Anca D; Hancu, N; Baston, Dorina

2016-12-01

Oxidative stress is one of the key mechanisms responsible for disease progression in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the serum levels of oxidative stress markers in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DMT2) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and test their relationships with clinical and biochemical patient characteristics, compared to patients with DMT2 without non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and controls. In all, 60 consecutive patients with DMT2 and NASH, 55 with DMT2 without NAFLD, and 50 age-and-gender-matched healthy subjects participated in the study. The serum levels of protein carbonyls and 8-isoprostane were determined by ELISA methods, while the serum levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) were detected by means of the spectrophotometric method. Clinical, demographic, and laboratory parameters were examined for all the subjects included in the study. Multivariate logistic regression was used to test the independent predictive factors in the relationships investigated here. Patients with DMT2 and NASH displayed significantly higher serum levels of protein carbonyls (1.112 ± 0.42 nmol/dL), MDA (6.181 ± 1.81 ng/mL), and 8-isoprostane (338.6 ± 98.5 pg/mL) compared to patients with DMT2 without NAFLD, and controls. Results of multivariate logistic regression analyses indicate that in patients with DMT2 and NASH, the serum levels of oxidative stress markers were independently and positively associated with: HbA1c, duration of diabetes, the UKPDS cardiovascular risk score (for protein carbonyls); age, LDL-cholesterol (for 8-isoprostane); and triglycerides serum levels (for MDA). Our findings indicate that the process of oxidative stress tends to increase in patients with DMT2 and NASH, compared to patients with DMT2 without NAFLD, and controls. This evidence suggests that an antioxidant therapy might prove useful in the treatment of patients with DMT2 and NASH.

The Role of Surrogate Endpoints in the Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Therapeutic Interventions in Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Wieczorek, Aleksandra; Rys, Przemyslaw; Skrzekowska-Baran, Iwona; Malecki, Maciej

2008-01-01

In this paper, we examine the concept of surrogate endpoints (i.e. substitute outcome measures) and review their use in clinical trials involving therapies for diabetes mellitus using the example of metformin. Trials such as DCCT and UKPDS, in which patient-important endpoints were evaluated, are relatively rare in diabetology. Clinical decisions, therefore, are often based on evidence obtained using surrogate outcomes, usually fasting or postprandial glycemia or glycated hemoglobin level. In contrast to patient-important endpoints, surrogates do not describe direct clinical benefit to the patient. However, a proven association between a surrogate and patient-important endpoint is essential to draw appropriate therapeutic conclusions. In the process of new drug development, the duration of follow-up, sample size and methodology of the studies initially available are often inadequate to demonstrate the effect of the intervention on patient-important endpoints. Evidence concerning the effect of an intervention on surrogate outcomes usually comes first, followed only later by reports describing its influence on patient-important endpoints. Metformin may serve as an example in several ways. The first publications reported beneficial effects on glycemic control and body weight. Outcomes from the subsequent UKPDS study suggested the patient-important efficacy of metformin measured as a reduction in mortality and a decrease in the incidence of diabetic complications, including myocardial infarction. This reasoning process worked for some but not all strategies. It is particularly questionable whether a change in surrogate endpoint was associated with a potential deterioration in patient-important outcomes. Defining the general relationship between surrogates widely used as measures of metabolic control and patient-important endpoints remains an important challenge in contemporary diabetology. PMID:19099084

The role of surrogate endpoints in the evaluation of efficacy and safety of therapeutic interventions in diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Wieczorek, Aleksandra; Rys, Przemyslaw; Skrzekowska-Baran, Iwona; Malecki, Maciej

2008-01-01

In this paper, we examine the concept of surrogate endpoints (i.e. substitute outcome measures) and review their use in clinical trials involving therapies for diabetes mellitus using the example of metformin. Trials such as DCCT and UKPDS, in which patient-important endpoints were evaluated, are relatively rare in diabetology. Clinical decisions, therefore, are often based on evidence obtained using surrogate outcomes, usually fasting or postprandial glycemia or glycated hemoglobin level. In contrast to patient-important endpoints, surrogates do not describe direct clinical benefit to the patient. However, a proven association between a surrogate and patient-important endpoint is essential to draw appropriate therapeutic conclusions. In the process of new drug development, the duration of follow-up, sample size and methodology of the studies initially available are often inadequate to demonstrate the effect of the intervention on patient-important endpoints. Evidence concerning the effect of an intervention on surrogate outcomes usually comes first, followed only later by reports describing its influence on patient-important endpoints. Metformin may serve as an example in several ways. The first publications reported beneficial effects on glycemic control and body weight. Outcomes from the subsequent UKPDS study suggested the patient-important efficacy of metformin measured as a reduction in mortality and a decrease in the incidence of diabetic complications, including myocardial infarction. This reasoning process worked for some but not all strategies. It is particularly questionable whether a change in surrogate endpoint was associated with a potential deterioration in patient-important outcomes. Defining the general relationship between surrogates widely used as measures of metabolic control and patient-important endpoints remains an important challenge in contemporary diabetology.

Intensive glycemic control and cardiovascular disease: an update.

PubMed

Brown, Aparna; Reynolds, L Raymond; Bruemmer, Dennis

2010-07-01

Cardiovascular complications constitute the major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with diabetes. The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) provided consistent evidence that intensive glycemic control prevents the development and progression of microvascular complications in patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. However, whether intensive glucose lowering also prevents macrovascular disease and major cardiovascular events remains unclear. Extended follow-up of participants in these studies demonstrated that intensive glycemic control reduced the long-term incidence of myocardial infarction and death from cardiovascular disease. By contrast, the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial, Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial, and Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial (VADT) results suggested that intensive glycemic control to near normoglycemia had either no, or potentially even a detrimental, effect on cardiovascular outcomes. This article discusses the effects of intensive glycemic control on cardiovascular disease, and examines key differences in the design of these trials that might have contributed to their disparate findings. Recommendations from the current joint ADA, AHA, and ACCF position statement on intensive glycemic control and prevention of cardiovascular disease are highlighted.

Management of co-existing diabetes mellitus and dyslipidemia: defining the role of thiazolidinediones.

PubMed

Florkowski, Chris M

2002-01-01

The observed reduction in macrovascular outcomes in the United Kingdom Progressive Diabetes Study (UKPDS) trial in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), treated intensively with insulin or sulfonylureas, was of borderline significance (p = 0.052). This may be because of the role of factors other than glycemic control in the etiology of macrovascular disease. The UKPDS and other studies have suggested that lipid parameters are potent predictors of adverse outcomes in patients with type 2 DM. In patients with DM, dyslipidemia is characterized by elevated serum triglycerides and low high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) with normal total serum cholesterol levels and usually accompanied by an elevation of atherogenic, small, dense low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) particles. Dyslipidemia is only partly corrected by dietary and lifestyle modifications and pharmacological glycemic control in patients with DM. Several guidelines, including those published by the New Zealand Heart Foundation, suggest that lipid-modifying therapies are appropriate in patients considered to be at high or very high risk of a cardiac event. This includes patients with established vascular disease. Some recent studies suggest that patients with type 2 DM have risk comparable to patients without DM, but have experienced previous myocardial infarction (MI). Subgroup analysis of trials including the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study (4S) and Cholesterol and Recurrent Events (CARE), which included patients with DM, have shown a significant reduction in adverse outcomes, although many patients with DM and dyslipidemia were excluded. Of lipid-lowering drugs, fibric acid derivatives are probably the most appropriate for patients with DM and dyslipidemia and their role is being evaluated in large, long-term outcome studies such as Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD). Thiazolidinediones, a new class of compound for treating patients with type 2 DM, primarily exert their glucose-lowering effect by increasing insulin sensitivity at the level of skeletal muscle, and to a lesser extent, at the liver by decreasing hepatic glucose output. Some of their actions are mediated through binding and activation of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma, a nuclear receptor that has a regulatory role in differentiation of cells, especially adipocytes. The nonhypoglycemic effects of thiazolidinediones, therefore, offer additional potential mechanisms for benefit in patients with type 2 DM and insulin resistance. Thiazolidinediones increase serum HDL-C levels. Troglitazone and pioglitazone have been shown to decrease serum triglyceride levels. Rosiglitazone, conversely has no significant effect on serum triglyceride levels. All of the thiazolidinediones increase serum LDL-C levels (pioglitazone to a lesser extent), although changes in the size of the LDL fraction may render it less susceptible to oxidation and, therefore, less atherogenic. A randomized comparative trial needs to be undertaken to determine whether true differences exist between the thiazolidinediones. Longer studies need to be undertaken to assess their effect on cardiovascular outcomes.

Quality of Diabetes Care in Germany Improved from 2000 to 2007 to 2014, but Improvements Diminished since 2007. Evidence from the Population-Based KORA Studies

PubMed Central

Knoll, Gabriella; Schunk, Michaela; Meisinger, Christa; Huth, Cornelia; Holle, Rolf

2016-01-01

Objective Little is known about the development of the quality of diabetes care in Germany. The aim of this study is to analyze time trends in patient self-management, physician-delivered care, medication, risk factor control, complications and quality of life from 2000 to 2014. Methods Analyses are based on data from individuals with type 2 diabetes of the population-based KORA S4 (1999–2001, n = 150), F4 (2006–2008, n = 203), FF4 (2013/14, n = 212) cohort study. Information on patient self-management, physician-delivered care, medication, risk factor control and quality of life were assessed in standardized questionnaires and examinations. The 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk was calculated using the UKPDS risk engine. Time trends were analyzed using multivariable linear and logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, education, diabetes duration, and history of cardiovascular disease. Results From 2000 to 2014 the proportion of participants with type 2 diabetes receiving oral antidiabetic/cardio-protective medication and of those reaching treatment goals for glycemic control (HbA1c<7%, 60% to 71%, p = 0.09), blood pressure (<140/80 mmHg, 25% to 69%, p<0.001) and LDL cholesterol (<2.6 mmol/l, 13% to 27%, p<0.001) increased significantly. However, improvements were generally smaller from 2007 to 2014 than from 2000 to 2007. Modeled 10-year CHD risk decreased from 30% in 2000 to 24% in 2007 to 19% in 2014 (p<0.01). From 2007 to 2014, the prevalence of microvascular complications decreased and quality of life increased, but no improvements were observed for the majority of indicators of self-management. Conclusion Despite improvements, medication and risk factor control has remained suboptimal. The flattening of improvements and deteriorations in quality of (self-) care since 2007 indicate that more effort is needed to improve quality of care and patient self-management. Due to selection or lead time bias an overestimation of quality of care improvements cannot be ruled out. PMID:27749939

Glycemic Control for Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Our Evolving Faith in the Face of Evidence.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Gutiérrez, René; Montori, Victor M

2016-09-01

We sought to determine the concordance between the accumulating evidence about the impact of tight versus less tight glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus since the publication of UKPDS (UK Prospective Diabetes Study) in 1998 until 2015 with the views about that evidence published in journal articles and practice guidelines. We searched in top general medicine and specialty journals for articles referring to glycemic control appearing between 2006 and 2015 and identified the latest practice guidelines. To summarize the evidence, we included all published systematic reviews and meta-analyses of contemporary randomized trials of glycemic control measuring patient-important microvascular and macrovascular outcomes, and completed a meta-analysis of their follow-up extensions. We identified 16 guidelines and 328 statements. The body of evidence produced estimates warranting moderate confidence. This evidence reported no significant impact of tight glycemic control on the risk of dialysis/transplantation/renal death, blindness, or neuropathy. In the past decade, however, most published statements (77%-100%) and guidelines (95%) unequivocally endorsed benefit. There is also no significant effect on all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, or stroke; however, there is a consistent 15% relative-risk reduction of nonfatal myocardial infarction. Between 2006 and 2008, most statements (47%-83%) endorsed the benefit; after 2008 (ACCORD), only a minority (21%-36%) did. Discordance exists between the research evidence and academic and clinical policy statements about the value of tight glycemic control to reduce micro- and macrovascular complications. This discordance may distort priorities in the research and practice agendas designed to improve the lives of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

The net value of health care for patients with type 2 diabetes, 1997 to 2005.

PubMed

Eggleston, Karen N; Shah, Nilay D; Smith, Steven A; Wagie, Amy E; Williams, Arthur R; Grossman, Jerome H; Berndt, Ernst R; Long, Kirsten Hall; Banerjee, Ritesh; Newhouse, Joseph P

2009-09-15

The net economic value of increased health care spending remains unclear, especially for chronic diseases. To assess the net value of health care for patients with type 2 diabetes. Economic analysis of observational cohort data. Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, a not-for-profit integrated health care delivery system. 613 patients with type 2 diabetes. Changes in inflation-adjusted annual health care spending and in health status between 1997 and 2005 (with health status defined as 10-year cardiovascular risk), holding age and diabetes duration constant across the observation period ("modifiable risk"), and simulated outcomes for all diabetes complications based on the UKPDS (United Kingdom Perspective Diabetes Study) Outcomes Model. Net value was estimated as the present discounted monetary value of improved survival and avoided treatment spending for coronary heart disease minus the increase in annual spending per patient. Assuming that 1 life-year is worth $200,000 and accounting for changes in modifiable cardiovascular risk, the net value of changes in health care for patients with type 2 diabetes was $10,911 per patient (95% CI, -$8480 to $33,402) between 1997 and 2005, a positive dollar value that suggests the value of health care has improved despite increased spending. A second approach based on diabetes complications yielded a net value of $6931 per patient (CI, -$186,901 to $211,980). The patient population was homogeneous and small, and the wide CIs of the estimates are compatible with a decrease as well as an increase in value. The economic value of improvements in health status for patients with type 2 diabetes seems to exceed or equal increases in health care spending, suggesting that those increases were worth the extra cost. However, the possibility that society is getting less value for its money could not be statistically excluded, and there is opportunity to improve the value of diabetes-related health care. None.

A cost effectiveness study of integrated care in health services delivery: a diabetes program in Australia

PubMed Central

McRae, Ian S; Butler, James RG; Sibthorpe, Beverly M; Ruscoe, Warwick; Snow, Jill; Rubiano, Dhigna; Gardner, Karen L

2008-01-01

Background Type 2 diabetes is rapidly growing as a proportion of the disease burden in Australia as elsewhere. This study addresses the cost effectiveness of an integrated approach to assisting general practitioners (GPs) with diabetes management. This approach uses a centralized database of clinical data of an Australian Division of General Practice (a network of GPs) to co-ordinate care according to national guidelines. Methods Long term outcomes for patients in the program were derived using clinical parameters after 5 years of program participation, and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model, to project outcomes for 40 years from the time of diagnosis and from 5 years post-diagnosis. Cost information was obtained from a range of sources. While program costs are directly available, and costs of complications can be estimated from the UKPDS model, other costs are estimated by comparing costs in the Division with average costs across the state or the nation. The outcome and cost measures are used derive incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results The clinical data show that the program is effective in the short term, with improvement or no statistical difference in most clinical measures over 5 years. Average HbA1c levels increased by less than expected over the 5 year period. While the program is estimated to generate treatment cost savings, overall net costs are positive. However, the program led to projected improvements in expected life years and Quality Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE), with incremental cost effectiveness ratios of $A8,106 per life-year saved and $A9,730 per year of QALE gained. Conclusions The combination of an established model of diabetes progression and generally available data has provided an opportunity to establish robust methods of testing the cost effectiveness of a program for which a formal control group was not available. Based on this methodology, integrated health care delivery provided by a network of GPs improved health outcomes of type 2 diabetics with acceptable cost effectiveness, which suggests that similar outcomes may be obtained elsewhere. PMID:18834551

Glycemic control: a combination of lifestyle management and the use of drugs.

PubMed

Standl, Eberhard; Erbach, Michael; Schnell, Oliver

2013-06-01

Some 30% of contemporary cardiology patients have coexisting known diabetes, and another 40% have either undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes. There is still no final conclusive evidence of cardiovascular benefit by good glycemic control in type 2 diabetes, although studies like the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) and the Prospective Pioglitazone Clinical Trial in Macrovascular Events, and meta-analyses based on these and other randomized controlled trials of blood glucose-lowering therapies have been encouraging. On the other hand, microvascular disease is clearly reduced by good glycemic control. Structured education has remained a mandatory prerequisite of any successful treatment. Not only is appropriate weight management by diet and exercise able to revert new onset diabetes to normal, but it is also the foundation of any successful pharmacotherapy of diabetes. Aiming at normal fasting plasma glucose concentrations of 5.3 mmol/L or 95 mg/dL appears to be safe since publication of the long-term outcome results of the Outcome Reduction with an Initial Glargine INtervention trial. Individualized target glycosylated hemoglobin levels as near to normal as safely possible (i.e., <7% and avoiding hypoglycaemia) are the goal for glycemic control. Hypoglycemia seems to emerge as a real concern in cardiology patients. Based on the findings of UKPDS, including the "legacy" study, metformin is the most widely recommended first-line drug therapy in type 2 diabetes, also in terms of preventing cardiovascular complications. An alternate first-line option in some parts of the world, especially Asian countries, is the class of alpha-glucosidase inhibitors. In most patients, combination therapies with two or three classes of drugs are warranted. Early combination are the golden strategy as type 2 diabetes is a multi-causal disease; the various classes of drugs have distinct and synergistic modes of action, and the blood glucose-lowering efficacy of these drugs is more or less fully maintained in combination. The recent joint American Diabetes Association/European Association for the Study of Diabetes position statement mentions five options as step two of the treatment algorithm for combination with metformin: sulfonylureas, pioglitazone, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists, and basal insulin.

Life expectancy in individuals with type 2 diabetes: implications for annuities.

PubMed

Price, Hermione C; Clarke, Philip M; Gray, Alastair M; Holman, Rury R

2010-01-01

Insurance companies often offer people with diabetes ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' at preferential rates, in view of their reduced life expectancy. To assess the appropriateness of ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' rates for individuals with type 2 diabetes. Patients. There were 4026 subjects with established type 2 diabetes (but not known cardiovascular or other life-threatening diseases) enrolled into the UK Lipids in Diabetes Study. Measurements. Estimated individual life expectancy using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. Subjects were a mean (SD) age of 60.7 (8.6) years, had a blood pressure of 141/83 (17/10) mm Hg, total cholesterol level of 4.5 (0.75) mmol/L, HDL cholesterol level of 1.2 (0.29) mmol/L, with median (interquartile range [IQR]) known diabetes duration of 6 (3-11) years, and HbA(1c) of 8.0% (7.2-9.0). Sixty-five percent were male, 91% white, 4% Afro-Caribbean, 5% Indian-Asian, and 15% current smokers. The UKPDS Outcomes Model median (IQR) estimated age at death was 76.6 (73.8-79.5) years compared with 81.6 (79.4-83.2) years, estimated using the UK Government Actuary's Department data for a general population of the same age and gender structure. The median (IQR) difference was 4.3 (2.8-6.1) years, a remaining life expectancy reduction of almost one quarter. The highest value annuity identified, which commences payments immediately for a 60-year-old man with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes investing 100,000, did not reflect this difference, offering 7.4K per year compared with 7.0K per year if not diabetic. The UK Government Actuary's Department data overestimate likely age at death in individuals with type 2 diabetes, and at present, ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' rates do not provide equity for people with type 2 diabetes. Using a diabetes-specific model to estimate life expectancy could provide valuable information to the annuity industry and permit more equitable annuity rates for those with type 2 diabetes.

A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

PubMed

Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A

2010-07-01

To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

The ability of the 2013 ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores

PubMed Central

Kawai, Vivian K.; Chung, Cecilia P.; Solus, Joseph F.; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C. Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that is underestimated by the Framingham risk score (FRS). We hypothesized that the 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds risk score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Methods Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA score we identified 34 patients with high CAC (≥ 300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS and the ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. Results All three risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P values <0.05). The percentage of patients with high CAC correctly assigned to the elevated risk category was similar among the three scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA 41%) (P=0.233). The c-statistics for the FRS, RRS and ACC/AHA risk scores predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. Conclusions The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC into a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk. PMID:25371313

Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement executive summary: coronary artery calcium scoring.

PubMed

Hamilton-Craig, Christian R; Chow, Clara K; Younger, John F; Jelinek, V M; Chan, Jonathan; Liew, Gary Yh

2017-10-16

Introduction This article summarises the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. CAC scoring is a non-invasive method for quantifying coronary artery calcification using computed tomography. It is a marker of atherosclerotic plaque burden and the strongest independent predictor of future myocardial infarction and mortality. CAC scoring provides incremental risk information beyond traditional risk calculators such as the Framingham Risk Score. Its use for risk stratification is confined to primary prevention of cardiovascular events, and can be considered as individualised coronary risk scoring for intermediate risk patients, allowing reclassification to low or high risk based on the score. Medical practitioners should carefully counsel patients before CAC testing, which should only be undertaken if an alteration in therapy, including embarking on pharmacotherapy, is being considered based on the test result. Main recommendations CAC scoring should primarily be performed on individuals without coronary disease aged 45-75 years (absolute 5-year cardiovascular risk of 10-15%) who are asymptomatic. CAC scoring is also reasonable in lower risk groups (absolute 5-year cardiovascular risk, < 10%) where risk scores traditionally underestimate risk (eg, family history of premature CVD) and in patients with diabetes aged 40-60 years. We recommend aspirin and a high efficacy statin in high risk patients, defined as those with a CAC score ≥ 400, or a CAC score of 100-399 and above the 75th percentile for age and sex. It is reasonable to treat patients with CAC scores ≥ 100 with aspirin and a statin. It is reasonable not to treat asymptomatic patients with a CAC score of zero. Changes in management as a result of this statement Cardiovascular risk is reclassified according to CAC score. High risk patients are treated with a high efficacy statin and aspirin. Very low risk patients (ie, CAC score of zero) do not benefit from treatment.

siMS Score: Simple Method for Quantifying Metabolic Syndrome.

PubMed

Soldatovic, Ivan; Vukovic, Rade; Culafic, Djordje; Gajic, Milan; Dimitrijevic-Sreckovic, Vesna

2016-01-01

To evaluate siMS score and siMS risk score, novel continuous metabolic syndrome scores as methods for quantification of metabolic status and risk. Developed siMS score was calculated using formula: siMS score = 2*Waist/Height + Gly/5.6 + Tg/1.7 + TAsystolic/130-HDL/1.02 or 1.28 (for male or female subjects, respectively). siMS risk score was calculated using formula: siMS risk score = siMS score * age/45 or 50 (for male or female subjects, respectively) * family history of cardio/cerebro-vascular events (event = 1.2, no event = 1). A sample of 528 obese and non-obese participants was used to validate siMS score and siMS risk score. Scores calculated as sum of z-scores (each component of metabolic syndrome regressed with age and gender) and sum of scores derived from principal component analysis (PCA) were used for evaluation of siMS score. Variants were made by replacing glucose with HOMA in calculations. Framingham score was used for evaluation of siMS risk score. Correlation between siMS score with sum of z-scores and weighted sum of factors of PCA was high (r = 0.866 and r = 0.822, respectively). Correlation between siMS risk score and log transformed Framingham score was medium to high for age groups 18+,30+ and 35+ (0.835, 0.707 and 0.667, respectively). siMS score and siMS risk score showed high correlation with more complex scores. Demonstrated accuracy together with superior simplicity and the ability to evaluate and follow-up individual patients makes siMS and siMS risk scores very convenient for use in clinical practice and research as well.

Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki

2012-10-01

The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and positive predictive value. For 3-vessel disease, the FRS had better predictive value than the other scores (area under curve, 0.74, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and negative predictive value. The risk scores (FRS, MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

Relationship between lower urinary tract symptoms and cardiovascular risk scores including Framingham risk score and ACC/AHA risk score.

PubMed

Lee, Bora; Lee, Sang Wook; Kang, Hye Rim; Kim, Dae In; Sun, Hwa Yeon; Kim, Jae Heon

2018-01-01

This study attempted to investigate the association between lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and CVD risk scores and to overcome the limitations of previous relevant studies. A total of 2994 ostensibly healthy males, who participated in a voluntary health check in a health promotion center from January 2010 to December 2014, were reviewed. CVD risk scores were calculated using Framingham risk score and American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) score. Correlation and multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict the CVD risk severity were performed. Correlation between total IPSS with CVD risk scores demonstrated significant positive associations, which showed higher correlation with ACC/AHA score than the Framingham score (r = 0.18 vs 0.09, respectively). For ACC/AHA score, the partial correlation after adjustment of body mass index (BMI) showed significant positive correlations between all LUTS parameters and PSA. For the Framingham score, all variables, except IPSS Q2 and IPSS Q6, showed significant positive correlations. After adjustment of BMI, prostate volume and PSA, only the severe LUTS group showed significant relationship with intermediate-high CVD risk severity, as compared with normal LUTS group (OR = 2.97, 95%CI (1.35-6.99)). Using two validated CVD risk calculators, we observed that LUTS is closely associated with future CVD risk. To predict the intermediate-high CVD risk severity, severe LUTS was a sentinel sign, the presence of which warrants the importance of an earlier screening for CVD. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts

PubMed Central

de las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine

2016-01-01

Background The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. Methods We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994–1995) and S4 (1999–2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000–2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. Results The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. Conclusions The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany. PMID:27732641

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts.

PubMed

de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

[Randomized, controlled clinical trials with observational follow-up investigations for evaluating efficacy of antihyperglycaemic treatment. I. Main results of the studies].

PubMed

Jermendy, György

2018-04-01

The effect of antihyperglycaemic (antidiabetic) treatment on the late diabetic complications is one of the most important research areas in clinical diabetology. The relationship between glycaemic control and late micro- and macrovascular complications was highlighted by the results of the DCCT (Diabetes Control and Complications Trial) with type 1 and by the UKPDS (United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study) with type 2 diabetic patients. In these studies, observational follow-up investigations were also performed after the close-out of the randomized phase of the trial. In addition to these landmark studies, other randomized, controlled efficacy trials were also performed with observational follow-up investigations resulting in the development of the concept of metabolic memory or metabolic legacy. In this article, the main results of the studies are summarized. Orv Hetil. 2018; 159(15): 575-582.

A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin

2016-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75-0.88). The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

PubMed

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (P<.001). The difference between the combined report and usual care was significant (P<.001) and directly proportional to baseline risk. The three-level risk classification did not reveal approximately 57.3% of the intervention effect detected by the risk score. The risk score also was sufficiently sensitive to detect the intervention effect within the subset of hypertensive patients (n=112; P=.001). As an outcome measure in intervention trials, the finely grained risk score is more sensitive than the trinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

Prenatal High Risk Scoring: How Family Doctors Do It

PubMed Central

Shea, Philip

1978-01-01

Assessment of risk factors is an integral part of family medicine and of prenatal care. A strong positive relationship has been demonstrated between a high risk score and higher incidence of maternal or perinatal morbidity and mortality. The family physician, because of his previous knowledge of the patient, and his familiarity with a broad range of normals, is in a good position to use his clinical judgement in high risk scoring in pregnancy. We must also be cautious that high risk scoring does not become a self fulfilling prophecy. Risk scoring is simply risk scoring, not a plan of management and intervention. PMID:21301562

A Risk Score Model for Evaluation and Management of Patients with Thyroid Nodules.

PubMed

Zhang, Yongwen; Meng, Fanrong; Hong, Lianqing; Chu, Lanfang

2018-06-12

The study is aimed to establish a simplified and practical tool for analyzing thyroid nodules. A novel risk score model was designed, risk factors including patient history, patient characteristics, physical examination, symptoms of compression, thyroid function, ultrasonography (US) of thyroid and cervical lymph nodes were evaluated and classified into high risk factors, intermediate risk factors, and low risk factors. A total of 243 thyroid nodules in 162 patients were assessed with risk score system and Thyroid Imaging-Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS). The diagnostic performance of risk score system and TI-RADS was compared. The accuracy in the diagnosis of thyroid nodules was 89.3% for risk score system, 74.9% for TI-RADS respectively. The specificity, accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV) of risk score system were significantly higher than the TI-RADS system (χ 2 =26.287, 17.151, 11.983; p <0.05), statistically significant differences were not observed in the sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) between the risk score system and TI-RADS (χ 2 =1.276, 0.290; p>0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) for risk score diagnosis system was 0.963, standard error 0.014, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.934-0.991, the AUC for TI-RADS diagnosis system was 0.912 with standard error 0.021, 95% CI=0.871-0.953, the AUC for risk score system was significantly different from that of TI-RADS (Z=2.02; p <0.05). Risk score model is a reliable, simplified and cost-effective diagnostic tool used in diagnosis of thyroid cancer. The higher the score is, the higher the risk of malignancy will be. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

The Auckland Cataract Study: Assessing Preoperative Risk Stratification Systems for Phacoemulsification Surgery in a Teaching Hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2016-11-01

To evaluate 2 preoperative risk stratification systems for assessing the risk of complications in phacoemulsification cataract surgery, performed by residents, fellows, and attending physicians in a public teaching hospital. Cohort study. One observer assessed the clinical data of 500 consecutive cases, prior to phacoemulsification cataract surgery performed between April and June 2015 at Greenlane Clinical Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. Preoperatively 2 risk scores were calculated for each case using the Muhtaseb and Buckinghamshire risk stratification systems. Complications, intraoperative and postoperative, and visual outcomes were analyzed in relation to these risk scores. Intraoperative complication rates increased with higher risk scores using the Muhtaseb or Buckinghamshire stratification system (P = .001 and P = .003, respectively, n = 500). The odds ratios for residents and fellows were not significantly different from attending physicians after case-mix adjustment according to risk scores (P > .05). Postoperative complication rates increased with higher Buckinghamshire risk scores but not with Muhtaseb scores (P = .014 and P = .094, respectively, n = 476). Postoperative corrected-distance visual acuity was poorer with higher risk scores (P < .001 for both, n = 476). This study confirms that the risk of intraoperative complications increases with higher preoperative risk scores. Furthermore, higher risk scores correlate with poorer postoperative visual acuity and the Buckinghamshire risk score also correlates with postoperative complications. Therefore, preoperative assessment using such risk stratification systems could assist individual informed consent, preoperative surgical planning, safe allocation of cases to trainees, and more meaningful analyses of outcomes for individual surgeons and institutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

PubMed Central

Pletcher, Mark J; Tice, Jeffrey A; Pignone, Michael; McCulloch, Charles; Callister, Tracy Q; Browner, Warren S

2004-01-01

Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female), we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham) to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance), her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years). In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy. PMID:15327691

Rationale and design of the ADDITION-Leicester study, a systematic screening programme and Randomised Controlled Trial of multi-factorial cardiovascular risk intervention in people with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus detected by screening

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Earlier diagnosis followed by multi-factorial cardiovascular risk intervention may improve outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). Latent phase identification through screening requires structured, appropriately targeted population-based approaches. Providers responsible for implementing screening policy await evidence of clinical and cost effectiveness from randomised intervention trials in screen-detected T2DM cases. UK South Asians are at particularly high risk of abnormal glucose tolerance and T2DM. To be effective national screening programmes must achieve good coverage across the population by identifying barriers to the detection of disease and adapting to the delivery of earlier care. Here we describe the rationale and methods of a systematic community screening programme and randomised controlled trial of cardiovascular risk management within a UK multiethnic setting (ADDITION-Leicester). Design A single-blind cluster randomised, parallel group trial among people with screen-detected T2DM comparing a protocol driven intensive multi-factorial treatment with conventional care. Methods ADDITION-Leicester consists of community-based screening and intervention phases within 20 general practices coordinated from a single academic research centre. Screening adopts a universal diagnostic approach via repeated 75g-Oral Glucose Tolerance Tests within an eligible non-diabetic population of 66,320 individuals aged 40-75 years (25-75 years South Asian). Volunteers also provide detailed medical and family histories; complete health questionnaires, undergo anthropometric measures, lipid profiling and a proteinuria assessment. Primary outcome is reduction in modelled Coronary Heart Disease (UKPDS CHD) risk at five years. Seven thousand (30% of South Asian ethnic origin) volunteers over three years will be recruited to identify a screen-detected T2DM cohort (n = 285) powered to detected a 6% relative difference (80% power, alpha 0.05) between treatment groups at one year. Randomisation will occur at practice-level with newly diagnosed T2DM cases receiving either conventional (according to current national guidelines) or intensive (algorithmic target-driven multi-factorial cardiovascular risk intervention) treatments. Discussion ADDITION-Leicester is the largest multiethnic (targeting >30% South Asian recruitment) community T2DM and vascular risk screening programme in the UK. By assessing feasibility and efficacy of T2DM screening, it will inform national disease prevention policy and contribute significantly to our understanding of the health care needs of UK South Asians. Trial registration Clinicaltrial.gov (NCT00318032). PMID:20170482

The predictive ability of the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation: the MAQI(2) experience.

PubMed

Barnes, Geoffrey D; Gu, Xiaokui; Haymart, Brian; Kline-Rogers, Eva; Almany, Steve; Kozlowski, Jay; Besley, Dennis; Krol, Gregory D; Froehlich, James B; Kaatz, Scott

2014-08-01

Guidelines recommend the assessment of stroke and bleeding risk before initiating warfarin anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation. Many of the elements used to predict stroke also overlap with bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation patients and it is tempting to use stroke risk scores to efficiently estimate bleeding risk. Comparison of stroke risk scores to bleeding risk scores to predict bleeding has not been thoroughly assessed. 2600 patients followed at seven anticoagulation clinics were followed from October 2009-May 2013. Five risk models (CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED and ATRIA) were retrospectively applied to each patient. The primary outcome was the first major bleeding event. Area under the ROC curves were compared with C statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis was performed. 110 patients experienced a major bleeding event in 2581.6 patient-years (4.5%/year). Mean follow up was 1.0±0.8years. All of the formal bleeding risk scores had a modest predictive value for first major bleeding events (C statistic 0.66-0.69), performing better than CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (C statistic difference 0.10 - 0.16). NRI analysis demonstrated a 52-69% and 47-64% improvement of the formal bleeding risk scores over the CHADS2 score and CHA2DS2-VASc score, respectively. The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores did not perform as well as formal bleeding risk scores for prediction of major bleeding in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients treated with warfarin. All three bleeding risk scores (HAS-BLED, ATRIA and HEMORR2HAGES) performed moderately well. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The New York risk score for in-hospital and 30-day mortality for coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Wechsler, Andrew; Jordan, Desmond; Lahey, Stephen J; Culliford, Alfred T; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R

2013-01-01

Simplified risk scores for coronary artery bypass graft surgery are frequently in lieu of more complicated statistical models and are valuable for informed consent and choice of intervention. Previous risk scores have been based on in-hospital mortality, but a substantial number of patients die within 30 days of the procedure. These deaths should also be accounted for, so we have developed a risk score based on in-hospital and 30-day mortality. New York's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital and 30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 2009, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that provides estimated in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for different values of the score. The accuracy of the risk score in predicting mortality was tested. This score was also validated by applying it to 2008 New York coronary artery bypass graft data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the risk score to predict complications and length of stay. The overall in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for the 10,148 patients in the study was 1.79%. There are seven risk factors comprising the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 5, and the highest possible total score is 23. The score accurately predicted mortality in 2009 as well as in 2008, and was strongly correlated with complications and length of stay. The risk score is a simple way of estimating short-term mortality that accurately predicts mortality in the year the model was developed as well as in the previous year. Perioperative complications and length of stay are also well predicted by the risk score. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Computed tomographic measurement of coronary artery calcification in the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a descriptive study].

PubMed

Morcillo, César; Valderas, José M; Roca, Joan M; Oliveró, Ruperto; Núñez, Cristina; Sánchez, Mónica; Bechich, Siraj

2007-03-01

Measurement of coronary artery calcification (CAC) is used in the evaluation of cardiovascular risk. We investigated its usefulness by comparing CAC assessment with that of various risk charts. We determined cardiovascular risk in patients without known atherosclerosis using the 1998 European Task Force (ETF), REGICOR (Registre Gironí del Corazón) and SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation) charts. CAC was assessed by computerized tomography and measurements were classified as low risk (i.e., score <1), intermediate risk (i.e., score 1-100), or high risk (i.e., score >100). The study included 331 patients (mean age 54 [8.5] years, 89% male). In 44.1%, CAC was detected (mean score 96 [278]). The degree of agreement between the cardiovascular risk derived from the CAC score and that derived from the SCORE and ETF charts was acceptable: kappa=.33 (P<.05) and kappa=.28 (P<.05), respectively, but agreement was poor with the REGICOR chart: kappa=.02 (P=.32). The SCORE and ETF charts, respectively, classified 45.0% and 38.3% of patients with a CAC score >100 as high risk, whereas the REGICOR chart did not classify any of these patients as high risk. Male sex, older age, smoking history, and a family history of coronary heart disease were all associated with the detection of CAC. Measurement of CAC demonstrated calcification in 44.1% of patients without known atherosclerosis. By regarding those with a CAC score > 100 as high-risk, 10.4% of patients evaluated using the SCORE chart would be reclassified as high risk, as would 11.6% of those evaluated using the ETF chart, and 18.9% of those evaluated using the REGICOR chart. Consequently, more patients would be eligible for preventative treatment.

Prediction of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: performance of original and adapted SCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Arts, E E A; Popa, C D; Den Broeder, A A; Donders, R; Sandoo, A; Toms, T; Rollefstad, S; Ikdahl, E; Semb, A G; Kitas, G D; Van Riel, P L C M; Fransen, J

2016-04-01

Predictive performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators appears suboptimal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A disease-specific CVD risk algorithm may improve CVD risk prediction in RA. The objectives of this study are to adapt the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm with determinants of CVD risk in RA and to assess the accuracy of CVD risk prediction calculated with the adapted SCORE algorithm. Data from the Nijmegen early RA inception cohort were used. The primary outcome was first CVD events. The SCORE algorithm was recalibrated by reweighing included traditional CVD risk factors and adapted by adding other potential predictors of CVD. Predictive performance of the recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms was assessed and the adapted SCORE was externally validated. Of the 1016 included patients with RA, 103 patients experienced a CVD event. Discriminatory ability was comparable across the original, recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated that all three algorithms provided poor model fit (p<0.05) for the Nijmegen and external validation cohort. The adapted SCORE algorithm mainly improves CVD risk estimation in non-event cases and does not show a clear advantage in reclassifying patients with RA who develop CVD (event cases) into more appropriate risk groups. This study demonstrates for the first time that adaptations of the SCORE algorithm do not provide sufficient improvement in risk prediction of future CVD in RA to serve as an appropriate alternative to the original SCORE. Risk assessment using the original SCORE algorithm may underestimate CVD risk in patients with RA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-03-01

While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (p<0.001) and MBR factors score (p=0.013) but not ATRIA and ORBIT scores. When HAS-BLED was compared to other bleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (p<0.001) and ORBIT (p=0.05) scores for major bleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all p<0.001). When NRI was performed, HAS-BLED outperformed all other bleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all p<0.001). C-indexes for ATRIA and ORBIT scores suggested no significant prediction for ICH. All contemporary bleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolomic determinants of metabolic risk in Mexican adolescents

PubMed Central

Perng, Wei; Hector, Emily C.; Song, Peter X.K.; Rojo, Martha Maria Tellez; Raskind, Sasha; Kachman, Maureen; Cantoral, Alejandra; Burant, Charles F.; Peterson, Karen E.

2017-01-01

Objective To identify metabolites associated with metabolic risk, separately by sex, in Mexican adolescents. Methods We carried out untargeted metabolomic profiling on fasting serum of 238 youth age 8–14 years, and identified metabolites associated with a metabolic syndrome risk z-score (MetRisk z-score), separately for boys and girls using the simulation and extrapolation (SIMEX) algorithm. We examined associations of each metabolite with MetRisk z-score using linear regression models that accounted for maternal education, child’s age, and pubertal status. Results Of the 938 features identified in metabolomics analysis, 7 named compounds (of 27 identified metabolites) were associated with MetRisk z-score in girls, and 3 named compounds (of 14 identified) were associated with MetRisk z-score in boys. In girls, diacylglycerol (DG) 16:0/16:0, 1,3-dielaidin, myo-inositol, and urate corresponded with higher MetRisk z-score, whereas N-acetylglycine, thymine, and dodecenedioic acid were associated with lower MetRisk z-score. For example, each z-score increment in DG 16:0/16:0 corresponded with 0.60 (0.47, 0.74). In boys, we found positive associations of DG 16:0/16:0, tyrosine, and 5′-methylthioadenosine with MetRisk z-score. Conclusions Metabolites on lipid, amino acid, and carbohydrate metabolism pathways are associated with metabolic risk in girls. Compounds on lipid and DNA pathways correspond with metabolic risk in boys. PMID:28758362

Leisure-Time Physical Activity, but not Commuting Physical Activity, is Associated with Cardiovascular Risk among ELSA-Brasil Participants.

PubMed

Pitanga, Francisco José Gondim; Matos, Sheila M A; Almeida, Maria da Conceição; Barreto, Sandhi Maria; Aquino, Estela M L

2018-01-01

Despite reports in the literature that both leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and commuting physical activity (CPA) can promote health benefits, the literature lacks studies comparing the associations of these domains of physical activity with cardiovascular risk scores. To investigate the association between LTPA and CPA with different cardiovascular risk scores in the cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health ELSA-Brasil. Cross-sectional study with data from 13,721 participants of both genders, aged 35-74 years, free of cardiovascular disease, from ELSA Brazil. Physical activity was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Five cardiovascular risk scores were used: Framingham score - coronary heart disease (cholesterol); Framingham score - coronary heart disease (LDL-C); Framingham score - cardiovascular disease (cholesterol); Framingham score - cardiovascular disease (body mass index, BMI); and pooled cohort equations for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Associations adjusted for confounding variables between physical activity and different cardiovascular risk scores were analyzed by logistic regression. Confidence interval of 95% (95%CI) was considered. LTPA is inversely associated with almost all cardiovascular risk scores analyzed, while CPA shows no statistically significant association with any of them. Dose-response effect in association between LTPA and cardiovascular risk scores was also found, especially in men. LTPA was shown to be associated with the cardiovascular risk scores analyzed, but CPA not. The amount of physical activity (duration and intensity) was more significantly associated, especially in men, with cardiovascular risk scores in ELSA-Brasil.

A simplified clinical risk score predicts the need for early endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Tammaro, Leonardo; Buda, Andrea; Di Paolo, Maria Carla; Zullo, Angelo; Hassan, Cesare; Riccio, Elisabetta; Vassallo, Roberto; Caserta, Luigi; Anderloni, Andrea; Natali, Alessandro

2014-09-01

Pre-endoscopic triage of patients who require an early upper endoscopy can improve management of patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To validate a new simplified clinical score (T-score) to assess the need of an early upper endoscopy in non variceal bleeding patients. Secondary outcomes were re-bleeding rate, 30-day bleeding-related mortality. In this prospective, multicentre study patients with bleeding who underwent upper endoscopy were enrolled. The accuracy for high risk endoscopic stigmata of the T-score was compared with that of the Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Overall, 602 patients underwent early upper endoscopy, and 472 presented with non-variceal bleeding. High risk endoscopic stigmata were detected in 145 (30.7%) cases. T-score sensitivity and specificity for high risk endoscopic stigmata and bleeding-related mortality was 96% and 30%, and 80% and 71%, respectively. No statistically difference in predicting high risk endoscopic stigmata between T-score and Glasgow Blatchford risk score was observed (ROC curve: 0.72 vs. 0.69, p=0.11). The two scores were also similar in predicting re-bleeding (ROC curve: 0.64 vs. 0.63, p=0.4) and 30-day bleeding-related mortality (ROC curve: 0.78 vs. 0.76, p=0.3). The T-score appeared to predict high risk endoscopic stigmata, re-bleeding and mortality with similar accuracy to Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Such a score may be helpful for the prediction of high-risk patients who need a very early therapeutic endoscopy. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical predictors of risk for atrial fibrillation: implications for diagnosis and monitoring.

PubMed

Brunner, Kyle J; Bunch, T Jared; Mullin, Christopher M; May, Heidi T; Bair, Tami L; Elliot, David W; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Mahapatra, Srijoy

2014-11-01

To create a risk score using clinical factors to determine whom to screen and monitor for atrial fibrillation (AF). The AF risk score was developed based on the summed odds ratios (ORs) for AF development of 7 accepted clinical risk factors. The AF risk score is intended to assess the risk of AF similar to how the CHA2DS2-VASc score assesses stroke risk. Seven validated risk factors for AF were used to develop the AF risk score: age, coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, sex, heart failure, hypertension, and valvular disease. The AF risk score was tested within a random population sample of the Intermountain Healthcare outpatient database. Outcomes were stratified by AF risk score for OR and Kaplan-Meier analysis. A total of 100,000 patient records with an index follow-up from January 1, 2002, through December 31, 2007, were selected and followed up for the development of AF through the time of this analysis, May 13, 2013, through September 6, 2013. Mean ± SD follow-up time was 3106±819 days. The ORs of subsequent AF diagnosis of patients with AF risk scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 or higher were 3.05, 12.9, 22.8, 34.0, and 48.0, respectively. The area under the curve statistic for the AF risk score was 0.812 (95% CI, 0.805-0.820). We developed a simple AF risk score made up of common clinical factors that may be useful to possibly select patients for long-term monitoring for AF detection. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones.

PubMed

Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Ziv, Elad; Kerlikowske, Karla; Cummings, Steven R

2017-11-01

Models that predict the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers may improve our ability to target chemoprevention. We investigated the contributions of sex hormones to the discrimination of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model and a polygenic risk score comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted a nested case-control study of 110 women with ER-positive breast cancers and 214 matched controls within a mammography screening cohort. Participants were postmenopausal and not on hormonal therapy. The associations of estradiol, estrone, testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin with ER-positive breast cancer were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. We assessed the individual and combined discrimination of estradiol, the BCSC risk score, and polygenic risk score using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the sex hormones assessed, estradiol (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.64-8.06 for top vs bottom quartile), and to a lesser degree estrone, was most strongly associated with ER-positive breast cancer in unadjusted analysis. The BCSC risk score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.75 per 1% increase) and polygenic risk score (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36 per standard deviation) were also associated with ER-positive cancers. A model containing the BCSC risk score, polygenic risk score, and estradiol levels showed good discrimination for ER-positive cancers (AUROC 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79), representing a significant improvement over the BCSC risk score (AUROC 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65). Adding estradiol and a polygenic risk score to a clinical risk model improves discrimination for postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancers.

East meets West: the influence of racial, ethnic and cultural risk factors on cardiac surgical risk model performance.

PubMed

Soo-Hoo, Sarah; Nemeth, Samantha; Baser, Onur; Argenziano, Michael; Kurlansky, Paul

2018-01-01

To explore the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the performance of cardiac surgical risk models, the Chinese SinoSCORE was compared with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model in a diverse American population. The SinoSCORE risk model was applied to 13 969 consecutive coronary artery bypass surgery patients from twelve American institutions. SinoSCORE risk factors were entered into a logistic regression to create a 'derived' SinoSCORE whose performance was compared with that of the STS risk model. Observed mortality was 1.51% (66% of that predicted by STS model). The SinoSCORE 'low-risk' group had a mortality of 0.15%±0.04%, while the medium-risk and high-risk groups had mortalities of 0.35%±0.06% and 2.13%±0.14%, respectively. The derived SinoSCORE model had a relatively good discrimination (area under of the curve (AUC)=0.785) compared with that of the STS risk score (AUC=0.811; P=0.18 comparing the two). However, specific factors that were significant in the original SinoSCORE but that lacked significance in our derived model included body mass index, preoperative atrial fibrillation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SinoSCORE demonstrated limited discrimination when applied to an American population. The derived SinoSCORE had a discrimination comparable with that of the STS, suggesting underlying similarities of physiological substrate undergoing surgery. However, differential influence of various risk factors suggests that there may be varying degrees of importance and interactions between risk factors. Clinicians should exercise caution when applying risk models across varying populations due to potential differences that racial, ethnic and geographic factors may play in cardiac disease and surgical outcomes.

[Characterisation of thromboembolic risk in a mexican population with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and its effect on anticoagulation (MAYA Study)].

PubMed

Vázquez-Acosta, Jorge A; Ramírez-Gutiérrez, Álvaro E; Cerecedo-Rosendo, Mario A; Olivera-Barrera, Francisco M; Tenorio-Sánchez, Salvador S; Nieto-Villarreal, Javier; González-Borjas, José M; Villanueva-Rodríguez, Estefanie

2016-01-01

To evaluate the risk of stroke and bleeding using the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores in Mexican patients with atrial fibrillation and to analyze whether the risk score obtained determined treatment decisions regarding antithrombotic therapy. This is an observational, retrospective study in Mexican patients recently diagnosed with atrial fibrillation. The risk of stroke was assessed using the CHA2DS2-VASc scores. The bleeding risk was evaluated using the HAS-BLED score. The frequency of use of antithrombotic therapy was calculated according to the results of the score risk assessment. A total of 350 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation were analyzed. A 92.9% of patients had a high risk (score ≥ 2) of stroke according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score and only 17.2% were treated with anticoagulants. A high proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation (72.5%) showed both a high risk of stroke and a high risk of bleeding based on HAS-BLED score. In this group of patients with atrial fibrillation, from Northeast Mexico, there is a remarkably underutilization of anticoagulation despite the high risk of stroke of these patients.

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Background: Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. Method: We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m2), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Results: Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients. PMID:25356178

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m(2)), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients.

Psoriasis and cardiovascular risk. Assessment by different cardiovascular risk scores.

PubMed

Fernández-Torres, R; Pita-Fernández, S; Fonseca, E

2013-12-01

Psoriasis is an inflammatory disease associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, very few studies determine cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham risk score or other indices more appropriate for countries with lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. To determine multiple cardiovascular risk scores in psoriasis patients, the relation between cardiovascular risk and psoriasis features and to compare our results with those in the literature. We assessed demographic data, smoking status, psoriasis features, blood pressure and analytical data. Cardiovascular risk was determined by means of Framingham, SCORE, DORICA and REGICOR scores. A total of 395 patients (59.7% men and 40.3% women) aged 18-86 years were included. The proportion of patients at intermediate and high risk of suffering a major cardiovascular event in the next 10 years was 30.5% and 11.4%, respectively, based on Framingham risk score; 26.9% and 2.2% according to DORICA and 6.8% and 0% using REGICOR score. According to the SCORE index, 22.1% of patients had a high risk of death due to a cardiovascular event over the next 10 years. Cardiovascular risk was not related to psoriasis characteristics, except for the Framingham index, with higher risk in patients with more severe psoriasis (P = 0.032). A considerable proportion of patients had intermediate or high cardiovascular risk, without relevant relationship with psoriasis characteristics and treatment schedules. Therefore, systematic evaluation of cardiovascular risk scores in all psoriasis patients could be useful to identify those with increased cardiovascular risk, subsidiary of lifestyle changes or therapeutic interventions. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology © 2012 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B

2013-06-01

This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of MASCC Score for Risk Stratification in Patients of Hematological Disorders with Febrile Neutropenia.

PubMed

Taj, M; Nadeem, M; Maqsood, S; Shah, T; Farzana, T; Shamsi, T S

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association of MASCC score (Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer Score) in patients with febrile neutropenia (as resultant treatment of hematological disorders) for risk assessment of morbidity and mortality. Patients presenting with Febrile Neutropenia from November 2011 till December 2013 were enrolled in the study. Initially all patients were hospitalized and their MASCC score was calculated, however those with high risk stayed in hospital till full ANC recovery while low risk group was discharged earlier and keenly followed as out-patient while being on prophylactic oral antibiotics. The MASCC risk-index score was calculated and patients with risk score >21 were regarded as low-risk while <21 were labeled as high-risk. On the basis of 226 febrile neutropenia patient 132(58.4 %) were categorized as low risk while 94(41.5 %) as high risk patients according to MASCC risk index score. In low risk group 123(93 %) had uncomplicated infection while 9(7 %) had complicated infections. There was no mortality documented in low risk group while eight patients died in high risk group. In this study we correctly predicted outcome of 123(93 %) low risk group patients. The study had positive predictive value of 93 % with both sensitivity and specificity of 65 and 75 % respectively. The MASCC risk score is a valuable tool in determining the outcome in patients with febrile neutropenia.

Validation of the pooled cohort risk score in an Asian population - a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2014-11-20

The Pooled Cohort Risk Equation was introduced by the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) 2013 in their Blood Cholesterol Guideline to estimate the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. However, absence of Asian ethnicity in the contemporary cohorts and limited studies to examine the use of the risk score limit the applicability of the equation in an Asian population. This study examines the validity of the pooled cohort risk score in a primary care setting and compares the cardiovascular risk using both the pooled cohort risk score and the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk score. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of randomly selected patients aged 40-79 years. Baseline demographic data, co-morbidities and cardiovascular (CV) risk parameters were captured from patient records in 1998. Pooled cohort risk score and Framingham General CVD risk score for each patient were computed. All ASCVD events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease (CHD) death, fatal and nonfatal stroke) occurring from 1998-2007 were recorded. A total of 922 patients were studied. In 1998, mean age was 57.5 ± 8.8 years with 66.7% female. There were 47% diabetic patients and 59.9% patients receiving anti-hypertensive treatment. More than 98% of patients with pooled cohort risk score ≥7.5% had FRS >10%. A total of 45 CVD events occurred, 22 (7.2%) in males and 23 (3.7%) in females. The median pooled cohort risk score for the population was 10.1 (IQR 4.7-20.6) while the actual ASCVD events that occurred was 4.9% (45/922). Our study showed moderate discrimination with AUC of 0.63. There was good calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2 = 12.6, P = 0.12. The pooled cohort risk score appears to overestimate CV risk but this apparent over-prediction could be a result of treatment. In the absence of a validated score in an untreated population, the pooled cohort risk score appears to be appropriate for use in a primary care setting.

On the potential of acarbose to reduce cardiovascular disease

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

In the emerging landscape of cardiovascular (CV) outcome trials evaluating the effects of blood glucose lowering drugs in individuals with type 2 diabetes, it is becoming increasingly apparent that since the promising signals coming from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) no unequivocal benefits have been established for any single therapy thus far. There is an unmet need for introducing an effective pharmacological agent which could target both correlates of glycaemic regulation and CV risk factors, to ameliorate the enormous burden of fatal and non-fatal CV events in diabetic patients. Acarbose, like other alpha-glucosidase inhibitors (AGIs), has been proven to be an effective antidiabetic treatment for decades, but the overall significant impact of this class of drugs on modulating CV risk has only recently been appreciated. Accumulating evidence has shown that apart from its multiple effects on primarily postprandial glucose dysmetabolism, a key component of mechanisms linked to increased incidence of CV events, acarbose therapy also associates with a favorable impact on an array of surrogate markers of CV disease. Data stemming from in vitro testing of human cell lines as well as from preliminary trials in diabetic populations, like the Study to Prevent Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus (STOP-NIDDM) trial, have highlighted – though not undisputed – the potential beneficial effects of the drug on CV morbidity. Large scale trials, like the ongoing Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial, aim at conclusively establishing such a positive effect in patients with coronary heart disease and impaired glucose tolerance. In view of its usually acceptable level of side effects that are, if they occur, mostly limited to transient gastrointestinal symptoms, acarbose could well be a strong future player in CV disease secondary prevention. Current discouraging results from many trials of antidiabetic medications to significantly lower CV event rates in diabetic patients, should only draw further attention on alternative glucose lowering agents, among which acarbose is indeed promising. PMID:24742256

On the potential of acarbose to reduce cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Standl, Eberhard; Theodorakis, Michael J; Erbach, Michael; Schnell, Oliver; Tuomilehto, Jaakko

2014-04-16

In the emerging landscape of cardiovascular (CV) outcome trials evaluating the effects of blood glucose lowering drugs in individuals with type 2 diabetes, it is becoming increasingly apparent that since the promising signals coming from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) no unequivocal benefits have been established for any single therapy thus far. There is an unmet need for introducing an effective pharmacological agent which could target both correlates of glycaemic regulation and CV risk factors, to ameliorate the enormous burden of fatal and non-fatal CV events in diabetic patients. Acarbose, like other alpha-glucosidase inhibitors (AGIs), has been proven to be an effective antidiabetic treatment for decades, but the overall significant impact of this class of drugs on modulating CV risk has only recently been appreciated. Accumulating evidence has shown that apart from its multiple effects on primarily postprandial glucose dysmetabolism, a key component of mechanisms linked to increased incidence of CV events, acarbose therapy also associates with a favorable impact on an array of surrogate markers of CV disease. Data stemming from in vitro testing of human cell lines as well as from preliminary trials in diabetic populations, like the Study to Prevent Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus (STOP-NIDDM) trial, have highlighted - though not undisputed - the potential beneficial effects of the drug on CV morbidity. Large scale trials, like the ongoing Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial, aim at conclusively establishing such a positive effect in patients with coronary heart disease and impaired glucose tolerance. In view of its usually acceptable level of side effects that are, if they occur, mostly limited to transient gastrointestinal symptoms, acarbose could well be a strong future player in CV disease secondary prevention. Current discouraging results from many trials of antidiabetic medications to significantly lower CV event rates in diabetic patients, should only draw further attention on alternative glucose lowering agents, among which acarbose is indeed promising.

Development and progression of nephropathy in type 2 diabetes: the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS 64).

PubMed

Adler, Amanda I; Stevens, Richard J; Manley, Sue E; Bilous, Rudy W; Cull, Carole A; Holman, Rury R

2003-01-01

The progression of nephropathy from diagnosis of type 2 diabetes has not been well described from a single population. This study sought to describe the development and progression through the stages of microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria, persistently elevated plasma creatinine or renal replacement therapy (RRT), and death. Using observed and modeled data from 5097 subjects in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study, we measured the annual probability of transition from stage to stage (incidence), prevalence, cumulative incidence, ten-year survival, median duration per stage, and risk of death from all-causes or cardiovascular disease. From diagnosis of diabetes, progression to microalbuminuria occurred at 2.0% per year, from microalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria at 2.8% per year, and from macroalbuminuria to elevated plasma creatinine (>or=175 micromol/L) or renal replacement therapy at 2.3% per year. Ten years following diagnosis of diabetes, the prevalence of microalbuminuria was 24.9%, of macroalbuminuria was 5.3%, and of elevated plasma creatinine or RRT was 0.8%. Patients with elevated plasma creatinine or RRT had an annual death rate of 19.2% (95% confidence interval, CI, 14.0 to 24.4%). There was a trend for increasing risk of cardiovascular death with increasing nephropathy (P < 0.0001), with an annual rate of 0.7% for subjects in the stage of no nephropathy, 2.0% for those with microalbuminuria, 3.5% for those with macroalbuminuria, and 12.1% with elevated plasma creatinine or RRT. Individuals with macroalbuminuria were more likely to die in any year than to develop renal failure. The proportion of patients with type 2 diabetes who develop microalbuminuria is substantial with one quarter affected by 10 years from diagnosis. Relatively fewer patients develop macroalbuminuria, but in those who do, the death rate exceeds the rate of progression to worse nephropathy.

A cross-sectional multicentre study of cardiac risk score use in the management of unstable angina and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Engel, Josien; van der Wulp, Ineke; de Bruijne, Martine; Wagner, Cordula

2015-11-24

Quantitative risk assessment in unstable angina (UA) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), by using cardiac risk scores, is recommended in international guidelines. However, a gap between recommended care and actual practice exists, as these instruments seem underused in practice. The present study aimed to determine the extent of cardiac risk score use and to study factors associated with lower or higher cardiac risk score use. 13 hospitals throughout the Netherlands. A retrospective chart review of 1788 charts of patients with UA and NSTEMI, discharged in 2012. The extent of cardiac risk score use reflected in a documented risk score outcome in the patient's chart. Factors associated with cardiac risk score use determined by generalised linear mixed models. In 57% (n=1019) of the charts, physicians documented the use of a cardiac risk score. Substantial variation between hospitals was observed (16.7-87%), although this variation could not be explained by the presence of on-site revascularisation facilities or a hospitals' teaching status. Obese patients (OR=1.49; CI 95%1.03 to 2.15) and former smokers (OR=1.56; CI 95%1.15 to 2.11) were more likely to have a cardiac risk score documented. Risk scores were less likely to be used among patients diagnosed with UA (OR=0.60; CI 95% 0.46 to 0.77), in-hospital resuscitation (OR=0.23; CI 95% 0.09 to 0.64), in-hospital heart failure (OR=0.46; CI 95% 0.27 to 0.76) or tachycardia (OR=0.45; CI 95% 0.26 to 0.75). Despite recommendations in cardiac guidelines, the use of cardiac risk scores has not been fully implemented in Dutch practice. A substantial number of patients did not have a cardiac risk score documented in their chart. Strategies to improve cardiac risk score use should pay special attention to patient groups in which risk scores were less often documented, as these patients may currently be undertreated. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: Results from the Filipino-American Women Cardiovascular Study.

PubMed

Ancheta, Irma B; Battie, Cynthia A; Volgman, Annabelle S; Ancheta, Christine V; Palaniappan, Latha

2017-02-01

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality of Filipino-Americans, conventional CVD risk calculators may not be accurate for this population. CVD risk scores of a group of Filipino-American women (FAW) were measured using the major risk calculators. Secondly, the sensitivity of the various calculators to obesity was determined. This is a cross-sectional descriptive study that enrolled 40-65-year-old FAW (n = 236), during a community-based health screening study. Ten-year CVD risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Reynolds Risk Score (RRS), and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) calculators. The 30-year risk FRS and the lifetime ASCVD calculators were also determined. Levels of predicted CVD risk varied as a function of the calculator. The 10-year ASCVD calculator classified 12 % of participants with ≥10 % risk, but the 10-year FRS and RRS calculators classified all participants with ≤10 % risk. The 30-year "Hard" Lipid and BMI FRS calculators classified 32 and 43 % of participants with high (≥20 %) risk, respectively, while 95 % of participants were classified with ≥20 % risk by the lifetime ASCVD calculator. The percent of participants with elevated CVD risk increased as a function of waist circumference for most risk score calculators. Differences in risk score as a function of the risk score calculator indicate the need for outcome studies in this population. Increased waist circumference was associated with increased CVD risk scores underscoring the need for obesity control as a primary prevention of CVD in FAW.

Use of a prenatal risk screen to predict maternal traumatic pregnancy-associated death: program and policy implications.

PubMed

Hardt, Nancy S; Eliazar, Jessica; Burt, Martha; Das, Rajeeb; Winter, William P; Saliba, Heidi; Roth, Jeffrey

2013-01-01

Motor vehicle crashes, homicide, suicide, and drug abuse are among the leading causes of pregnancy-associated deaths. To prevent such deaths, identifying women for intervention is required. The universally offered Florida Healthy Start Prenatal Risk Screen was evaluated to identify women at increased risk for traumatic pregnancy-associated death. Florida's Enhanced Maternal Mortality Reporting Database for 1999 through 2005 was linked with Florida's Healthy Start Prenatal Risk Screen to identify traumatic pregnancy-associated death as the outcome. Distribution of Healthy Start risk scores among women who died were compared with the screened population. Traumatic death estimates per 100,000 births were drawn for each risk score, along with estimates of the relative risk (RR) of traumatic death for each score. The RR of women with scores greater than or equal to 4 were compared with the risk of women scoring 0 to 3. Almost 20% of the 620,959 women who did not die of traumatic death had a risk score of 0, compared with only 3% of the 144 women who did die of traumatic death. As risk scores increased, the chance of traumatic deaths sharply increased. A woman with a score of 4 had 11.78 times (confidence interval [CI], 4.63-29.69) the risk of traumatic death compared with a woman with a risk score of 0. The implementation of prenatal risk screening to identify women at increased risk for traumatic pregnancy-associated death would help to ensure that policies to reduce infant risk factors also address maternal risk factors. Copyright © 2013 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM) correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK) ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK), 4.4% (SCORE) and 14.5% (Framingham) had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only) and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females. PMID:21366925

Comparison of traditional diabetes risk scores and HbA1c to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in a population based cohort study.

PubMed

Krabbe, Christine Emma Maria; Schipf, Sabine; Ittermann, Till; Dörr, Marcus; Nauck, Matthias; Chenot, Jean-François; Markus, Marcello Ricardo Paulista; Völzke, Henry

2017-11-01

Compare performances of diabetes risk scores and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to estimate the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Northeast Germany. We studied 2916 subjects (20 to 81years) from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) in a 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores included the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) base model, the Danish diabetes risk score and the Data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance syndrome (D.E.S.I.R) clinical risk score. We assessed the performance of each of the diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c for 5-year risk of T2DM by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. In SHIP, the incidence of T2DM was 5.4% (n=157) in the 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores and HbA1c achieved AUCs ranging from 0.76 for the D.E.S.I.R. clinical risk score to 0.82 for the KORA base model. For diabetes risk scores, the discriminative ability was lower for the age group 55 to 74years. For HbA1c, the discriminative ability also decreased for the group 55 to 74years while it was stable in the age group 30 to 64years old. All diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c showed a good prediction for the risk of T2DM in SHIP. Which model or biomarker should be used is driven by its context of use, e.g. the practicability, implementation of interventions and availability of measurement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The ACTA PORT-score for predicting perioperative risk of blood transfusion for adult cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Klein, A A; Collier, T; Yeates, J; Miles, L F; Fletcher, S N; Evans, C; Richards, T

2017-09-01

A simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to an integer-based system and tested it using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC) statistic with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score. Several factors were independently associated with risk of transfusion, including age, sex, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac surgery patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores, with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients. The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This and other scores can be used in research studies for risk adjustment when assessing outcomes, and might also be incorporated into a Patient Blood Management programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Comparison of RISK-PCI, GRACE, TIMI risk scores for prediction of major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Jakimov, Tamara; Mrdović, Igor; Filipović, Branka; Zdravković, Marija; Djoković, Aleksandra; Hinić, Saša; Milić, Nataša; Filipović, Branislav

2017-12-31

To compare the prognostic performance of three major risk scoring systems including global registry for acute coronary events (GRACE), thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI), and prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (RISK-PCI). This single-center retrospective study involved 200 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent invasive diagnostic approach, ie, coronary angiography and myocardial revascularization if appropriate, in the period from January 2014 to July 2014. The GRACE, TIMI, and RISK-PCI risk scores were compared for their predictive ability. The primary endpoint was a composite 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), which included death, urgent target-vessel revascularization (TVR), stroke, and non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction (REMI). The c-statistics of the tested scores for 30-day MACE or area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with confidence intervals (CI) were as follows: RISK-PCI (AUC=0.94; 95% CI 1.790-4.353), the GRACE score on admission (AUC=0.73; 95% CI 1.013-1.045), the GRACE score on discharge (AUC=0.65; 95% CI 0.999-1.033). The RISK-PCI score was the only score that could predict TVR (AUC=0.91; 95% CI 1.392-2.882). The RISK-PCI scoring system showed an excellent discriminative potential for 30-day death (AUC=0.96; 95% CI 1.339-3.548) in comparison with the GRACE scores on admission (AUC=0.88; 95% CI 1.018-1.072) and on discharge (AUC=0.78; 95% CI 1.000-1.058). In comparison with the GRACE and TIMI scores, RISK-PCI score showed a non-inferior ability to predict 30-day MACE and death in ACS patients. Moreover, RISK-PCI was the only scoring system that could predict recurrent ischemia requiring TVR.

Simple new risk score model for adult cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: simple cardiac ECMO score.

PubMed

Peigh, Graham; Cavarocchi, Nicholas; Keith, Scott W; Hirose, Hitoshi

2015-10-01

Although the use of cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is increasing in adult patients, the field lacks understanding of associated risk factors. While standard intensive care unit risk scores such as SAPS II (simplified acute physiology score II), SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment), and APACHE II (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II), or disease-specific scores such as MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) and RIFLE (kidney risk, injury, failure, loss of function, ESRD) exist, they may not apply to adult cardiac ECMO patients as their risk factors differ from variables used in these scores. Between 2010 and 2014, 73 ECMOs were performed for cardiac support at our institution. Patient demographics and survival were retrospectively analyzed. A new easily calculated score for predicting ECMO mortality was created using identified risk factors from univariate and multivariate analyses, and model discrimination was compared with other scoring systems. Cardiac ECMO was performed on 73 patients (47 males and 26 females) with a mean age of 48 ± 14 y. Sixty-four percent of patients (47/73) survived ECMO support. Pre-ECMO SAPS II, SOFA, APACHE II, MELD, RIFLE, PRESERVE, and ECMOnet scores, were not correlated with survival. Univariate analysis of pre-ECMO risk factors demonstrated that increased lactate, renal dysfunction, and postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock were risk factors for death. Applying these data into a new simplified cardiac ECMO score (minimal risk = 0, maximal = 5) predicted patient survival. Survivors had a lower risk score (1.8 ± 1.2) versus the nonsurvivors (3.0 ± 0.99), P < 0.0001. Common intensive care unit or disease-specific risk scores calculated for cardiac ECMO patients did not correlate with ECMO survival, whereas a new simplified cardiac ECMO score provides survival predictability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of RISK-PCI, GRACE, TIMI risk scores for prediction of major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome

PubMed Central

Jakimov, Tamara; Mrdović, Igor; Filipović, Branka; Zdravković, Marija; Djoković, Aleksandra; Hinić, Saša; Milić, Nataša; Filipović, Branislav

2017-01-01

Aim To compare the prognostic performance of three major risk scoring systems including global registry for acute coronary events (GRACE), thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI), and prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (RISK-PCI). Methods This single-center retrospective study involved 200 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent invasive diagnostic approach, ie, coronary angiography and myocardial revascularization if appropriate, in the period from January 2014 to July 2014. The GRACE, TIMI, and RISK-PCI risk scores were compared for their predictive ability. The primary endpoint was a composite 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), which included death, urgent target-vessel revascularization (TVR), stroke, and non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction (REMI). Results The c-statistics of the tested scores for 30-day MACE or area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with confidence intervals (CI) were as follows: RISK-PCI (AUC = 0.94; 95% CI 1.790-4.353), the GRACE score on admission (AUC = 0.73; 95% CI 1.013-1.045), the GRACE score on discharge (AUC = 0.65; 95% CI 0.999-1.033). The RISK-PCI score was the only score that could predict TVR (AUC = 0.91; 95% CI 1.392-2.882). The RISK-PCI scoring system showed an excellent discriminative potential for 30-day death (AUC = 0.96; 95% CI 1.339-3.548) in comparison with the GRACE scores on admission (AUC = 0.88; 95% CI 1.018-1.072) and on discharge (AUC = 0.78; 95% CI 1.000-1.058). Conclusions In comparison with the GRACE and TIMI scores, RISK-PCI score showed a non-inferior ability to predict 30-day MACE and death in ACS patients. Moreover, RISK-PCI was the only scoring system that could predict recurrent ischemia requiring TVR. PMID:29308832

Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

PubMed

Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

2018-01-01

To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age <70) used for comparison. The outcome of interest in this study was in-hospital mortality. The entire cohort and subsets of patients were analyzed. The calibration and discrimination in total and in subsets were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow and the C statistics respectively. Institutional overall mortality was 2.52%. The expected mortality rates of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

A Study of Correlation of Neck Circumference with Framingham Risk Score as a Predictor of Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Koppad, Anand K; Kaulgud, Ram S; Arun, B S

2017-09-01

It has been observed that metabolic syndrome is risk factor for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and exerts its effects through fat deposition and vascular aging. CAD has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death. In earlier studies, the metabolic risk has been estimated by Framingham risk score. Recent studies have shown that Neck Circumference (NC) has a good correlation with other traditional anthropometric measurements and can be used as marker of obesity. It also correlates with Framingham risk score, which is slightly more sophisticated measure of CAD risk. To assess the risk of CAD in a subject based on NC and to correlate the NC to Framingham risk score. The present cross-sectional study, done at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka, India, includes 100 subjects. The study duration was of one year from 1 st January 2015 to 31 st December 2015. Anthropometric indices Body Mass Index (BMI) and NC were correlated with 10 year CAD risk as calculated by Framingham risk score. The correlation between BMI, NC, vascular age and Framingham risk score was calculated using Karl Pearson's correlation method. NC has a strong correlation with 10 year CAD risk (p≤0.001). NC was significantly greater in males as compared to females (p≤0.001). Males had greater risk of cardiovascular disease as reflected by higher 10 year Framingham risk score (p≤0.0035). NC gives simple and easy prediction of CAD risk and is more reliable than traditional risk markers like BMI. NC correlates positively with 10 year Framingham risk score.

Utility of different cardiovascular disease prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Udrea, G; Rezus, E; Gheorghe, A; Tiu, C; Stoica, V

2014-01-01

Rheumatoid arthritis comes with a 30% higher probability for cardiovascular disease than the general population. Current guidelines advocate for early and aggressive primary prevention and treatment of risk factors in high-risk populations but this excess risk is under-addressed in RA in real life. This is mainly due to difficulties met in the correct risk evaluation. This study aims to underline the differences in results of the main cardiovascular risk screening models in the real life rheumatoid arthritis population. In a cross-sectional study, patients addressed to a tertiary care center in Romania for an biannual follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis and the ones who were considered free of any cardiovascular disease were assessed for subclinical atherosclerosis. Clinical, biological and carotidal ultrasound evaluations were performed. A number of cardiovascular disease prediction scores were performed and differences between tests were noted in regard to subclinical atherosclerosis as defined by the existence of carotid intima media thickness over 0,9 mm or carotid plaque. In a population of 29 Romanian rheumatoid arthritis patients free of cardiovascular disease, the performance of Framingham Risk Score, HeartSCORE, ARIC cardiovascular disease prediction score, Reynolds Risk Score, PROCAM risk score and Qrisk2 score were compared. All the scores under-diagnosed subclinical atherosclerosis. With an AUROC of 0,792, the SCORE model was the only one that could partially stratify patients in low, intermediate and high-risk categories. The use of the EULAR recommended modifier did not help to reclassify patients. The only score that showed a statistically significant prediction capacity for subclinical atherosclerosis in a Romanian rheumatoid arthritis population was SCORE. The additional calibration or the use of imaging techniques in CVD risk prediction for the intermediate risk category might be warranted.

Utility of different cardiovascular disease prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Udrea, G; Rezus, E; Gheorghe, A; Tiu, C; Stoica, V

2014-01-01

Background. Rheumatoid arthritis comes with a 30% higher probability for cardiovascular disease than the general population. Current guidelines advocate for early and aggressive primary prevention and treatment of risk factors in high-risk populations but this excess risk is under-addressed in RA in real life. This is mainly due to difficulties met in the correct risk evaluation. This study aims to underline the differences in results of the main cardiovascular risk screening models in the real life rheumatoid arthritis population. Methods. In a cross-sectional study, patients addressed to a tertiary care center in Romania for an biannual follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis and the ones who were considered free of any cardiovascular disease were assessed for subclinical atherosclerosis. Clinical, biological and carotidal ultrasound evaluations were performed. A number of cardiovascular disease prediction scores were performed and differences between tests were noted in regard to subclinical atherosclerosis as defined by the existence of carotid intima media thickness over 0,9 mm or carotid plaque. Results. In a population of 29 Romanian rheumatoid arthritis patients free of cardiovascular disease, the performance of Framingham Risk Score, HeartSCORE, ARIC cardiovascular disease prediction score, Reynolds Risk Score, PROCAM risk score and Qrisk2 score were compared. All the scores under-diagnosed subclinical atherosclerosis. With an AUROC of 0,792, the SCORE model was the only one that could partially stratify patients in low, intermediate and high-risk categories. The use of the EULAR recommended modifier did not help to reclassify patients. Conclusion. The only score that showed a statistically significant prediction capacity for subclinical atherosclerosis in a Romanian rheumatoid arthritis population was SCORE. The additional calibration or the use of imaging techniques in CVD risk prediction for the intermediate risk category might be warranted. PMID:25713628

Incident Risk Factors and Major Bleeding in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Treated with Oral Anticoagulants: A Comparison of Baseline, Follow-up and Delta HAS-BLED Scores with an Approach Focused on Modifiable Bleeding Risk Factors.

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-04-01

 When assessing bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), risk stratification is often based on the baseline risks. We aimed to investigate changes in bleeding risk factors and alterations in the HAS-BLED score in AF patients. We hypothesized that a follow-up HAS-BLED score and the 'delta HAS-BLED score' (reflecting the change in score between baseline and follow-up) would be more predictive of major bleeding, when compared with baseline HAS-BLED score.  A total of 19,566 AF patients receiving warfarin and baseline HAS-BLED score ≤2 were studied. After a follow-up of 93,783 person-years, 3,032 major bleeds were observed. The accuracies of baseline, follow-up, and delta HAS-BLED scores as well as cumulative numbers of baseline modifiable bleeding risk factors, in predicting subsequent major bleeding, were analysed and compared. The mean baseline HAS-BLED score was 1.43 which increased to 2.45 with a mean 'delta HAS-BLED score' of 1.03. The HAS-BLED score remained unchanged in 38.2% of patients. Of those patients experiencing major bleeding, 76.6% had a 'delta HAS-BLED' score ≥1, compared with only 59.0% in patients without major bleeding ( p  < 0.001). For prediction of major bleeding, AUC was significantly higher for the follow-up HAS-BLED (0.63) or delta HAS-BLED (0.62) scores, compared with baseline HAS-BLED score (0.54). The number of baseline modifiable risk factors was non-significantly predictive of major bleeding (AUC = 0.49).  In this 'real-world' nationwide AF cohort, follow-up HAS-BLED or 'delta HAS-BLED score' was more predictive of major bleeding compared with baseline HAS-BLED or the simple determination of 'modifiable bleeding risk factors'. Bleeding risk in AF is a dynamic process and use of the HAS-BLED score should be to 'flag up' patients potentially at risk for more regular review and follow-up, and to address the modifiable bleeding risk factors during follow-up visits. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David

2018-02-13

In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and <20% of them are now included anatomically as high risk for PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

2014-04-01

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P < 0.0001) of the mortality in the high-risk group, especially by the logistic EuroSCORE. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all risk groups.

Genetic markers enhance coronary risk prediction in men: the MORGAM prospective cohorts.

PubMed

Hughes, Maria F; Saarela, Olli; Stritzke, Jan; Kee, Frank; Silander, Kaisa; Klopp, Norman; Kontto, Jukka; Karvanen, Juha; Willenborg, Christina; Salomaa, Veikko; Virtamo, Jarmo; Amouyel, Phillippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Ferrières, Jean; Wiklund, Per-Gunner; Baumert, Jens; Thorand, Barbara; Diemert, Patrick; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Hengstenberg, Christian; Peters, Annette; Evans, Alun; Koenig, Wolfgang; Erdmann, Jeanette; Samani, Nilesh J; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Schunkert, Heribert

2012-01-01

More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design. Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived. Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events. Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

2010-01-01

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

The evaluation of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score, poisoning severity score, sequential organ failure assessment score combine with lactate to assess the prognosis of the patients with acute organophosphate pesticide poisoning.

PubMed

Yuan, Shaoxin; Gao, Yusong; Ji, Wenqing; Song, Junshuai; Mei, Xue

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, poisoning severity score (PSS) as well as sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score combining with lactate (Lac) to predict mortality in the Emergency Department (ED) patients who were poisoned with organophosphate.A retrospective review of 59 stands-compliant patients was carried out. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed based on the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score with or without Lac, respectively, and the areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) were determined to assess predictive value. According to SOFA-Lac (a combination of SOFA and Lac) classification standard, acute organophosphate pesticide poisoning (AOPP) patients were divided into low-risk and high-risk groups. Then mortality rates were compared between risk levels.Between survivors and non-survivors, there were significant differences in the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score, and Lac (all P < .05). The AUCs of the APACHE II score, PSS, and SOFA score were 0.876, 0.811, and 0.837, respectively. However, after combining with Lac, the AUCs were 0.922, 0.878, and 0.956, respectively. According to SOFA-Lac, the mortality of high-risk group was significantly higher than low-risk group (P < .05) and the patients of the non-survival group were all at high risk.These data suggest the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score can all predict the prognosis of AOPP patients. For its simplicity and objectivity, the SOFA score is a superior predictor. Lac significantly improved the predictive abilities of the 3 scoring systems, especially for the SOFA score. The SOFA-Lac system effectively distinguished the high-risk group from the low-risk group. Therefore, the SOFA-Lac system is significantly better at predicting mortality in AOPP patients.

Association of Practice-Level Social and Medical Risk With Performance in the Medicare Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier Program

PubMed Central

Epstein, Arnold M.; Orav, E. John; Filice, Clara E.; Samson, Lok Wong; Joynt Maddox, Karen E.

2017-01-01

Importance Medicare recently launched the Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier (PVBM) Program, a mandatory pay-for-performance program for physician practices. Little is known about performance by practices that serve socially or medically high-risk patients. Objective To compare performance in the PVBM Program by practice characteristics. Design, Setting, and Participants Cross-sectional observational study using PVBM Program data for payments made in 2015 based on performance of large US physician practices caring for fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in 2013. Exposures High social risk (defined as practices in the top quartile of proportion of patients dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid) and high medical risk (defined as practices in the top quartile of mean Hierarchical Condition Category risk score among fee-for-service beneficiaries). Main Outcomes and Measures Quality and cost z scores based on a composite of individual measures. Higher z scores reflect better performance on quality; lower scores, better performance on costs. Results Among 899 physician practices with 5 189 880 beneficiaries, 547 practices were categorized as low risk (neither high social nor high medical risk) (mean, 7909 beneficiaries; mean, 320 clinicians), 128 were high medical risk only (mean, 3675 beneficiaries; mean, 370 clinicians), 102 were high social risk only (mean, 1635 beneficiaries; mean, 284 clinicians), and 122 were high medical and social risk (mean, 1858 beneficiaries; mean, 269 clinicians). Practices categorized as low risk performed the best on the composite quality score (z score, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.09 to 0.28]) compared with each of the practices categorized as high risk (high medical risk only: z score, −0.55 [95% CI, −0.77 to −0.32]; high social risk only: z score, −0.86 [95% CI, −1.17 to −0.54]; and high medical and social risk: −0.78 [95% CI, −1.04 to −0.51]) (P < .001 across groups). Practices categorized as high social risk only performed the best on the composite cost score (z score, −0.52 [95% CI, −0.71 to −0.33]), low risk had the next best cost score (z score, −0.18 [95% CI, −0.25 to −0.10]), then high medical and social risk (z score, 0.40 [95% CI, 0.23 to 0.57]), and then high medical risk only (z score, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.65 to 0.99]) (P < .001 across groups). Total per capita costs were $9506 for practices categorized as low risk, $13 683 for high medical risk only, $8214 for high social risk only, and $11 692 for high medical and social risk. These patterns were associated with fewer bonuses and more penalties for high-risk practices. Conclusions and Relevance During the first year of the Medicare Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier Program, physician practices that served more socially high-risk patients had lower quality and lower costs, and practices that served more medically high-risk patients had lower quality and higher costs. PMID:28763549

Risk assessment and risk scores in the management of aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M

2016-04-01

The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.

The utility of diabetes risk score items as predictors of incident type 2 diabetes in Asian populations: An evidence-based review.

PubMed

Hu, Pei Lin; Koh, Yi Ling Eileen; Tan, Ngiap Chuan

2016-12-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is rising, with many Asian countries featured in the top 10 countries with the highest numbers of persons with diabetes. Reliable diabetes risk scores enable the identification of individuals at risk of developing diabetes for early intervention. This article aims to identify common risk factors in the risk scores with the highest discrimination; factors with the most influence on the risk score in Asian populations, and to propose a set of factors translatable to the multi-ethnic Singapore population. A systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases was conducted to identify studies published before August 2016 that developed risk prediction models for incident diabetes. 12 studies were identified. Risk scores that included laboratory measurements had better discrimination. Coefficient analysis showed fasting glucose and HbA1c having the greatest impact on the risk score. A proposed Asian risk score would include: family history of diabetes, age, gender, smoking status, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides. Future research is required on the influence of ethnicity in Singapore. The risk score may potentially be used to stratify individuals for enrolment into diabetes prevention programmes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relationship between neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, platelet to lymphocyte ratio and thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk score in patients with ST elevation acute myocardial infarction before primary coronary intervention

PubMed Central

Ertaş, Faruk; Bilik, Mehmet Zihni; Akıl, Mehmet Ata; Özyurtlu, Ferhat; Aydın, Mesut; Oylumlu, Mustafa; Polat, Nihat; Yüksel, Murat; Yıldız, Abdulkadir; Kaya, Hasan; Akyüz, Abdurrahman; Ayçiçek, Hilal; Özbek, Mehmet; Toprak, Nizamettin

2015-01-01

Introduction The thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score is calculated as the sum of independent predictors of mortality and ischemic events in ST elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI). Several studies show that the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a prognostic inflammatory marker. In preliminary studies, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) has been proposed as a pro-thrombotic marker. The relationship between NLR, PLR and TIMI risk score for STEMI has never been studied. Aim To evaluate the association between TIMI-STEMI risk score and NLR, PLR and other biochemical indices in STEMI. Material and methods In this retrospective study, we evaluated 390 patients who presented with STEMI within 12 h of symptom onset. Patients were grouped according to low and high TIMI risk scores. Results We enrolled 390 patients (mean age 61.9 ±13.6 years; 73% were men). The NLR, platelet distribution width (PDW) and uric acid level (UA) were significantly associated with a high TIMI-STEMI risk score (p = 0.016, p = 0.008, p = 0.030, respectively), but PLR was not associated with a high TIMI-STEMI risk score. Left ventricular ejection fraction was an independent predictor of TIMI-STEMI risk score. A cut-off point of TIMI-STEMI score of > 4 predicted in-hospital mortality (sensitivity 75%, specificity 70%, p < 0.001). We found that NLR, PDW, and UA level were associated with TIMI-STEMI risk score. Conclusions Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, PDW and UA level are convenient, inexpensive and reproducible biomarkers for STEMI prognosis before primary angioplasty when these indicators are combined with the TIMI-STEMI risk score. We believe that these significant findings can guide further clinical practice. PMID:26161105

Clinical risk scoring for predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in metabolic syndrome patients (NAFLD-MS score).

PubMed

Saokaew, Surasak; Kanchanasuwan, Shada; Apisarnthanarak, Piyaporn; Charoensak, Aphinya; Charatcharoenwitthaya, Phunchai; Phisalprapa, Pochamana; Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn

2017-10-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress from simple steatosis to hepatocellular carcinoma. None of tools have been developed specifically for high-risk patients. This study aimed to develop a simple risk scoring to predict NAFLD in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS). A total of 509 patients with MetS were recruited. All were diagnosed by clinicians with ultrasonography-confirmed whether they were patients with NAFLD. Patients were randomly divided into derivation (n=400) and validation (n=109) cohort. To develop the risk score, clinical risk indicators measured at the time of recruitment were built by logistic regression. Regression coefficients were transformed into item scores and added up to a total score. A risk scoring scheme was developed from clinical predictors: BMI ≥25, AST/ALT ≥1, ALT ≥40, type 2 diabetes mellitus and central obesity. The scoring scheme was applied in validation cohort to test the performance. The scheme explained, by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC), 76.8% of being NAFLD with good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 =4.35; P=.629). The positive likelihood ratio of NAFLD in patients with low risk (scores below 3) and high risk (scores 5 and over) were 2.32 (95% CI: 1.90-2.82) and 7.77 (95% CI: 2.47-24.47) respectively. When applied in validation cohort, the score showed good performance with AuROC 76.7%, and illustrated 84%, and 100% certainty in low- and high-risk groups respectively. A simple and non-invasive scoring scheme of five predictors provides good prediction indices for NAFLD in MetS patients. This scheme may help clinicians in order to take further appropriate action. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Validating a Prognostic Scoring System for Postmastectomy Locoregional Recurrence in Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Skye Hung-Chun, E-mail: skye@kfsyscc.org; Clinical Research Office, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina

2013-03-15

Purpose: This study is designed to validate a previously developed locoregional recurrence risk (LRR) scoring system and further define which groups of patients with breast cancer would benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT). Methods and Materials: An LRR risk scoring system was developed previously at our institution using breast cancer patients initially treated with modified radical mastectomy between 1990 and 2001. The LRR score comprised 4 factors: patient age, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor negativity, and number of involved lymph nodes. We sought to validate the original study by examining a new dataset of 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007. Results:more » The 1545 patients were scored according to the previously developed criteria: 920 (59.6%) were low risk (score 0-1), 493 (31.9%) intermediate risk (score 2-3), and 132 (8.5%) were high risk (score ≥4). The 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 98% versus 97% (P=.41), 97% versus 91% (P=.0005), and 89% versus 50% (P=.0002) respectively. Conclusions: This analysis of an additional 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007 validates our previously reported LRR scoring system and suggests appropriate patients for whom PMRT will be beneficial. Independent validation of this scoring system by other institutions is recommended.« less

Comparison of risk classification between EndoPredict and MammaPrint in ER-positive/HER2-negative primary invasive breast cancer

PubMed Central

Peláez-García, Alberto; Yébenes, Laura; Berjón, Alberto; Angulo, Antonia; Zamora, Pilar; Sánchez-Méndez, José Ignacio; Espinosa, Enrique; Redondo, Andrés; Heredia-Soto, Victoria; Mendiola, Marta; Feliú, Jaime

2017-01-01

Purpose To compare the concordance in risk classification between the EndoPredict and the MammaPrint scores obtained for the same cancer samples on 40 estrogen-receptor positive/HER2-negative breast carcinomas. Methods Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded invasive breast carcinoma tissues that were previously analyzed with MammaPrint as part of routine care of the patients, and were classified as high-risk (20 patients) and low-risk (20 patients), were selected to be analyzed by the EndoPredict assay, a second generation gene expression test that combines expression of 8 genes (EP score) with two clinicopathological variables (tumor size and nodal status, EPclin score). Results The EP score classified 15 patients as low-risk and 25 patients as high-risk. EPclin re-classified 5 of the 25 EP high-risk patients into low-risk, resulting in a total of 20 high-risk and 20 low-risk tumors. EP score and MammaPrint score were significantly correlated (p = 0.008). Twelve of 20 samples classified as low-risk by MammaPrint were also low-risk by EP score (60%). 17 of 20 MammaPrint high-risk tumors were also high-risk by EP score. The overall concordance between EP score and MammaPrint was 72.5% (κ = 0.45, (95% CI, 0.182 to 0.718)). EPclin score also correlated with MammaPrint results (p = 0.004). Discrepancies between both tests occurred in 10 cases: 5 MammaPrint low-risk patients were classified as EPclin high-risk and 5 high-risk MammaPrint were classified as low-risk by EPclin and overall concordance of 75% (κ = 0.5, (95% CI, 0.232 to 0.768)). Conclusions This pilot study demonstrates a limited concordance between MammaPrint and EndoPredict. Differences in results could be explained by the inclusion of different gene sets in each platform, the use of different methodology, and the inclusion of clinicopathological parameters, such as tumor size and nodal status, in the EndoPredict test. PMID:28886093

B-type Natriuretic Peptide and RISK-PCI Score in the Risk Assessment in Patients with STEMI Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

PubMed

Asanin, Milika; Mrdovic, Igor; Savic, Lidija; Matic, Dragan; Krljanac, Gordana; Vukcevic, Vladan; Orlic, Dejan; Stankovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Stankovic, Sanja

2016-01-01

RISK-PCI score is a novel score for risk stratification of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the RISK-PCI score for early risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI. In 120 patients with STEMI treated by pPCI, BNP was measured on admission before pPCI. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the most powerful predictive factors of 30-day mortality were the plasma level of BNP ≥ 206.6 pg/mL with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87.5% and the RISK-PCI score ≥ 5.25 with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 85.7%. Thirty-day mortality was 6.7%. After multivariate adjustment, admission BNP (≥ 206.6 pg/mL) (OR 2.952, 95% CI 1.072 - 8.133, p = 0.036) and the RISK-PCI score (≥ 5.25) (OR 2.284, 95% CI 1.140-4.578, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The area under the ROC curve using the RISK-PCI score and BNP to detect mortality was 0.828 (p = 0.002) and 0.903 (p < 0.001), respectively. Addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score increased the area under the ROC to 0.949 (p < 0.001), but this increase measured by the c-statistic was not significant (p = 0.107). Furthermore, the significant improvement in risk reclassification (p < 0.001) and the integrated discrimination index (p = 0.042) were observed with the addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score for 30-day mortality. BNP on admission and the RISK-PCI score were the independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the STEMI treated by pPCI. BNP in combination with the RISK-PCI score showed the way to more accurate risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI.

Cost effectiveness of atorvastatin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a pharmacoeconomic analysis of the collaborative atorvastatin diabetes study in the belgian population.

PubMed

Annemans, L; Marbaix, S; Webb, K; Van Gaal, L; Scheen, A

2010-01-01

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus have a high risk of developing cardiovascular (CV) disease. The clinical benefit of use of statins in patients with type 2 diabetes has been demonstrated in several randomized, controlled trials, including the CARDS clinical trial. Based on the clinical CARDS data, the favourable cost effectiveness of atorvastatin 10 mg in patients with type 2 diabetes has been demonstrated in countries such as the UK and France. This study aimed to estimate the cost effectiveness in the Belgian setting of atorvastatin 10 mg compared with no treatment for the primary prevention of CV events in type 2 diabetes patients without a history of CV disease. A Markov model with 1-year cycles was developed to simulate the CV event and death risk according to the therapeutic approach initiated. The transition probabilities for CV events in the 'no statin treatment' group were derived from the risk equations reported from the large UKPDS. Risk reductions from the CARDS clinical trial were used to adjust these CV event probabilities in the atorvastatin 10 mg treatment group. The characteristics of type 2 diabetes patients without a CV history were derived from the Belgian OCAPI survey. The public healthcare payers' perspective was taken into account for costing. The direct medical costs of CV events were based on the Public Health Authorities' hospital database for acute care costs and on the literature for the follow-up costs. The impact on the reimbursement system of generic entry to the market was considered in the drug cost. Costs were valued as at year 2009; costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% and 1.5%, respectively. Based on a 5-year time horizon, atorvastatin was demonstrated to be cost effective with an incremental cost/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of euro 16,681. Over a lifetime horizon (25 years), atorvastatin was demonstrated to be a cost-saving therapeutic intervention. At a threshold of euro 30,000/QALY, atorvastatin had a 98.8% probability of being cost effective. Compared with 'no treatment', use of atorvastatin 10 mg as a primary prevention intervention in Belgian type 2 diabetes patients not only improves CV outcomes, but also appears to be cost saving over a lifetime horizon.

Joint use of cardio-embolic and bleeding risk scores in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Marcucci, Maura; Nobili, Alessandro; Tettamanti, Mauro; Iorio, Alfonso; Pasina, Luca; Djade, Codjo D; Franchi, Carlotta; Marengoni, Alessandra; Salerno, Francesco; Corrao, Salvatore; Violi, Francesco; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

2013-12-01

Scores for cardio-embolic and bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation are described in the literature. However, it is not clear how they co-classify elderly patients with multimorbidity, nor whether and how they affect the physician's decision on thromboprophylaxis. Four scores for cardio-embolic and bleeding risks were retrospectively calculated for ≥ 65 year old patients with atrial fibrillation enrolled in the REPOSI registry. The co-classification of patients according to risk categories based on different score combinations was described and the relationship between risk categories tested. The association between the antithrombotic therapy received and the scores was investigated by logistic regressions and CART analyses. At admission, among 543 patients the median scores (range) were: CHADS2 2 (0-6), CHA2DS2-VASc 4 (1-9), HEMORR2HAGES 3 (0-7), HAS-BLED 2 (1-6). Most of the patients were at high cardio-embolic/high-intermediate bleeding risk (70.5% combining CHADS2 and HEMORR2HAGES, 98.3% combining CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED). 50-60% of patients were classified in a cardio-embolic risk category higher than the bleeding risk category. In univariate and multivariable analyses, a higher bleeding score was negatively associated with warfarin prescription, and positively associated with aspirin prescription. The cardio-embolic scores were associated with the therapeutic choice only after adjusting for bleeding score or age. REPOSI patients represented a population at high cardio-embolic and bleeding risks, but most of them were classified by the scores as having a higher cardio-embolic than bleeding risk. Yet, prescription and type of antithrombotic therapy appeared to be primarily dictated by the bleeding risk. © 2013.

Development of a simple tool to predict the risk of postpartum diabetes in women with gestational diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Köhler, M; Ziegler, A G; Beyerlein, A

2016-06-01

Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have an increased risk of diabetes postpartum. We developed a score to predict the long-term risk of postpartum diabetes using clinical and anamnestic variables recorded during or shortly after delivery. Data from 257 GDM women who were prospectively followed for diabetes outcome over 20 years of follow-up were used to develop and validate the risk score. Participants were divided into training and test sets. The risk score was calculated using Lasso Cox regression and divided into four risk categories, and its prediction performance was assessed in the test set. Postpartum diabetes developed in 110 women. The computed training set risk score of 5 × body mass index in early pregnancy (per kg/m(2)) + 132 if GDM was treated with insulin (otherwise 0) + 44 if the woman had a family history of diabetes (otherwise 0) - 35 if the woman lactated (otherwise 0) had R (2) values of 0.23, 0.25, and 0.33 at 5, 10, and 15 years postpartum, respectively, and a C-Index of 0.75. Application of the risk score in the test set resulted in observed risk of postpartum diabetes at 5 years of 11 % for low risk scores ≤140, 29 % for scores 141-220, 64 % for scores 221-300, and 80 % for scores >300. The derived risk score is easy to calculate, allows accurate prediction of GDM-related postpartum diabetes, and may thus be a useful prediction tool for clinicians and general practitioners.

Improving prediction of outcomes in African Americans with normal stress echocardiograms using a risk scoring system.

PubMed

Sutter, David A; Thomaides, Athanasios; Hornsby, Kyle; Mahenthiran, Jothiharan; Feigenbaum, Harvey; Sawada, Stephen G

2013-06-01

Cardiovascular mortality is high in African Americans, and those with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at increased risk. The aim of this study was to develop a risk scoring system to improve the prediction of cardiovascular events in African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography. Clinical data and rest echocardiographic measurements were obtained in 548 consecutive African Americans with normal results on rest and stress echocardiography and ejection fractions ≥50%. Patients were followed for myocardial infarction and death for 3 years. Predictors of cardiovascular events were determined with Cox regression, and hazard ratios were used to determine the number of points in the risk score attributed to each independent predictor. During follow-up of 3 years, 47 patients (8.6%) had events. Five variables-age (≥45 years in men, ≥55 years in women), history of coronary disease, history of smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, and exercise intolerance (<7 METs in men, <5 METs in women, or need for dobutamine stress)-were independent predictors of events. A risk score was derived for each patient (ranging from 0 to 8 risk points). The area under the curve for the risk score was 0.82 with the optimum cut-off risk score of 6. Among patients with risk scores ≥6, 30% had events, compared with 3% with risk score <6 (p <0.001). In conclusion, African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at significant risk for cardiovascular events. A risk score can be derived from clinical and echocardiographic variables, which can accurately distinguish high- and low-risk patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

All-cause mortality in asymptomatic persons with extensive Agatston scores above 1000.

PubMed

Patel, Jaideep; Blaha, Michael J; McEvoy, John W; Qadir, Sadia; Tota-Maharaj, Rajesh; Shaw, Leslee J; Rumberger, John A; Callister, Tracy Q; Berman, Daniel S; Min, James K; Raggi, Paolo; Agatston, Arthur A; Blumenthal, Roger S; Budoff, Matthew J; Nasir, Khurram

2014-01-01

Risk assessment in the extensive calcified plaque phenotype has been limited by small sample size. We studied all-cause mortality rates among asymptomatic patients with markedly elevated Agatston scores > 1000. We studied a clinical cohort of 44,052 asymptomatic patients referred for coronary calcium scans. Mean follow-up was 5.6 years (range, 1-13 years). All-cause mortality rates were calculated after stratifying by Agatston score (0, 1-1000, 1001-1500, 1500-2000, and >2000). A multivariable Cox regression model adjusting for self-reported traditional risk factors was created to assess the relative mortality hazard of Agatston scores 1001 to 1500, 1501 to 2000, and >2000. With the use of post-estimation modeling, we assessed for the presence of an upper threshold of risk with high Agatston scores. A total of 1593 patients (4% of total population) had Agatston score > 1000. There was a continuous graded decrease in estimated 10-year survival across increasing Agatston score, continuing when Agatston score > 1000 (Agatston score 1001-1500, 78%; Agatston score 1501-2000, 74%; Agatston score > 2000, 51%). After multivariable adjustment, Agatston scores 1001 to 1500, 1501 to 2000, and >2000 were associated with an 8.05-, 7.45-, and 13.26-fold greater mortality risk, respectively, than for Agatston score of 0. Compared with Agatston score 1001 to 1500, Agatston score 1501 to 2000 had a similar all-cause mortality risk, whereas Agatston score > 2000 had an increased relative risk (Agatston score 1501-2000: hazard ratio [HR], 1.01 [95% CI, 0.67-1.51]; Agatston score > 2000: HR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.30-2.46]). Graphical assessment of the predicted survival model suggests no upper threshold for risk associated with calcified plaque in coronary arteries. Increasing calcified plaque in coronary arteries continues to predict a graded decrease in survival among patients with extensive Agatston score > 1000 with no apparent upper threshold. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

PubMed

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

2014-12-02

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Longitudinal associations of sleep curtailment with metabolic risk in mid-childhood.

PubMed

Cespedes, Elizabeth M; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Redline, Susan; Gillman, Matthew W; Peña, Michelle-Marie; Taveras, Elsie M

2014-12-01

To examine associations of chronic insufficient sleep with mid-childhood cardiometabolic health. At 6 months and yearly from 1 to 7 years, mothers participating in the Project Viva cohort reported children's 24-h sleep duration. The main exposure was a sleep curtailment score, ranging from 0 (maximal curtailment) to 13 (never having curtailed sleep). The main outcome was a mid-childhood metabolic risk score, derived as the mean of five sex- and cohort-specific z scores for waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol (scaled inversely), and log-transformed triglycerides and HOMA-IR; higher scores indicate higher risk. The mean (SD) sleep score was 10.0 (2.8); 5.1% scored 0-4, 13.9% scored 5-7, 14.1% scored 8-9, 28.7% scored 10-11, and 38.3% scored 12-13. Mean (SD, range) metabolic risk score was -0.03 (0.6, -1.8 to 2.6). In multivariable models, the metabolic risk score difference for children with most versus least curtailed sleep was 0.29 units (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02, 0.57). Further adjustment for mid-childhood BMI z score attenuated this difference to 0.08 units (95% CI: -0.14, 0.30). Chronic insufficient sleep from infancy to school-age was associated with higher mid-childhood metabolic risk. This association was explained by sleep duration's influence on mid-childhood adiposity. © 2014 The Obesity Society.

Proposal for a new categorization of aseptic processing facilities based on risk assessment scores.

PubMed

Katayama, Hirohito; Toda, Atsushi; Tokunaga, Yuji; Katoh, Shigeo

2008-01-01

Risk assessment of aseptic processing facilities was performed using two published risk assessment tools. Calculated risk scores were compared with experimental test results, including environmental monitoring and media fill run results, in three different types of facilities. The two risk assessment tools used gave a generally similar outcome. However, depending on the tool used, variations were observed in the relative scores between the facilities. For the facility yielding the lowest risk scores, the corresponding experimental test results showed no contamination, indicating that these ordinal testing methods are insufficient to evaluate this kind of facility. A conventional facility having acceptable aseptic processing lines gave relatively high risk scores. The facility showing a rather high risk score demonstrated the usefulness of conventional microbiological test methods. Considering the significant gaps observed in calculated risk scores and in the ordinal microbiological test results between advanced and conventional facilities, we propose a facility categorization based on risk assessment. The most important risk factor in aseptic processing is human intervention. When human intervention is eliminated from the process by advanced hardware design, the aseptic processing facility can be classified into a new risk category that is better suited for assuring sterility based on a new set of criteria rather than on currently used microbiological analysis. To fully benefit from advanced technologies, we propose three risk categories for these aseptic facilities.

Same score, different message: perceptions of offender risk depend on Static-99R risk communication format.

PubMed

Varela, Jorge G; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Cuervo, Veronica A; Murrie, Daniel C; Clark, John W

2014-10-01

The popular Static-99R allows evaluators to convey results in terms of risk category (e.g., low, moderate, high), relative risk (compared with other sexual offenders), or normative sample recidivism rate formats (e.g., 30% reoffended in 5 years). But we do not know whether judges and jurors draw similar conclusions about the same Static-99R score when findings are communicated using different formats. Community members reporting for jury duty (N = 211) read a tutorial on the Static-99R and a description of a sexual offender and his crimes. We varied his Static-99R score (1 or 6) and risk communication format (categorical, relative risk, or recidivism rate). Participants rated the high-scoring offender as higher risk than the low-scoring offender in the categorical communication condition, but not in the relative risk or recidivism rate conditions. Moreover, risk ratings of the high-scoring offender were notably higher in the categorical communication condition than the relative risk and recidivism rate conditions. Participants who read about a low Static-99R score tended to report that Static-99R results were unimportant and difficult to understand, especially when risk was communicated using categorical or relative risk formats. Overall, results suggest that laypersons are more receptive to risk results indicating high risk than low risk and more receptive to risk communication messages that provide an interpretative label (e.g., high risk) than those that provide statistical results. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Development of a self-assessment score for metabolic syndrome risk in non-obese Korean adults.

PubMed

Je, Youjin; Kim, Youngyo; Park, Taeyoung

2017-03-01

There is a need for simple risk scores that identify individuals at high risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). Therefore, this study was performed to develop and validate a self-assessment score for MetS risk in non-obese Korean adults. Data from the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV), 2007-2009 were used to develop a MetS risk score. We included a total of 5,508 non-obese participants aged 19-64 years who were free of a self-reported diagnosis of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, stroke, angina, or cancer. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to assign each variable category a score. The validity of the score was assessed in an independent population survey performed in 2010 and 2011, KNHANES V (n=3,892). Age, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, dairy consumption, dietary habit of eating less salty and food insecurity were selected as categorical variables. The MetS risk score value varied from 0 to 13, and a cut-point MetS risk score of >=7 was selected based on the highest Youden index. The cut-point provided a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 61%, positive predictive value of 14%, and negative predictive value of 98%, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78. Consistent results were obtained in the validation data sets. This simple risk score may be used to identify individuals at high risk for MetS without laboratory tests among non-obese Korean adults. Further studies are needed to verify the usefulness and feasibility of this score in various settings.

Differentiating Community Dwellers at Risk for Pathological Narcissism From Community Dwellers at Risk for Psychopathy Using Measures of Emotion Recognition and Subjective Emotional Activation.

PubMed

Fossati, Andrea; Somma, Antonella; Pincus, Aaron; Borroni, Serena; Dowgwillo, Emily A

2017-06-01

The Italian translations of the Pathological Narcissism Inventory (PNI) and Triarchic Psychopathy Measure (TriPM) were administered to 609 community dwelling adults. Participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the PNI total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for pathological narcissism, whereas participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the TriPM total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for psychopathy. The final sample included 126 participants who were administered the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET) and emotion-eliciting movie clips. Participants at risk for pathological narcissism scored significantly lower on the RMET total score than participants who were not at risk for pathological narcissism. Participants at risk for psychopathy showed a significant reduction in the subjective experience of disgust, fear, sadness, and tenderness compared to participants who were not at risk for psychopathy.

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

PubMed

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bleeding Risk Profile in Patients With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease.

PubMed

Baumann, Frederic; Husmann, Marc; Benenati, James F; Katzen, Barry T; Del Conde, Ian

2016-06-01

To assess the bleeding risk profile using the HAS-BLED score in patients with symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD). A post hoc analysis was performed using data from a series of 115 consecutive patients (mean age 72.4±11.4 years; 68 men) with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular revascularization. The endpoint of the study was to assess bleeding risk using the 9-point HAS-BLED score, which was previously validated in cohorts of patients with and without atrial fibrillation. For the purpose of this study, the low (0-1), intermediate (2), and high-risk (≥3) scores were stratified as low/intermediate risk (HAS-BLED <3) vs high risk (HAS-BLED ≥3). The mean HAS-BLED score was 2.76±1.16; 64 (56%) patients had a HAS-BLED score ≥3.0. Patients with PAD Rutherford category 5/6 ischemia had an even higher mean HAS-BLED score (3.20±1.12). Logistic regression analysis revealed aortoiliac or femoropopliteal segment involvement, chronic kidney disease, as well as Rutherford category 5/6, to be independent risk factors associated with a HAS-BLED score ≥3. Patients with PAD, especially those presenting with Rutherford category 5/6 ischemic symptoms, have high HAS-BLED scores, suggesting increased risk for major bleeding. Prospective clinical validation of the HAS-BLED score in patients with PAD may help with the risk-benefit assessment when prescribing antithrombotic therapy. © The Author(s) 2016.

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

PubMed

Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Paediatric nutrition risk scores in clinical practice: children with inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Wiskin, A E; Owens, D R; Cornelius, V R; Wootton, S A; Beattie, R M

2012-08-01

There has been increasing interest in the use of nutrition risk assessment tools in paediatrics to identify those who need nutrition support. Four non-disease specific screening tools have been developed, although there is a paucity of data on their application in clinical practice and the degree of inter-tool agreement. The concurrent validity of four nutrition screening tools [Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Paediatrics (STAMP), Screening Tool for Risk On Nutritional status and Growth (STRONGkids), Paediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS) and Simple Paediatric Nutrition Risk Score (PNRS)] was examined in 46 children with inflammatory bowel disease. Degree of malnutrition was determined by anthropometry alone using World Health Organization International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) criteria. There was good agreement between STAMP, STRONGkids and PNRS (kappa > 0.6) but there was only modest agreement between PYMS and the other scores (kappa = 0.3). No children scored low risk with STAMP, STRONGkids or PNRS; however, 23 children scored low risk with PYMS. There was no agreement between the risk tools and the degree of malnutrition based on anthropometric data (kappa < 0.1). Three children had anthropometry consistent with malnutrition and these were all scored high risk. Four children had body mass index SD scores < -2, one of which was scored at low nutrition risk. The relevance of nutrition screening tools for children with chronic disease is unclear. In addition, there is the potential to under recognise nutritional impairment (and therefore nutritional risk) in children with inflammatory bowel disease. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2012 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Risk score for first-screening of prevalent undiagnosed chronic kidney disease in Peru: the CRONICAS-CKD risk score.

PubMed

Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M; Miranda, J Jaime; Gilman, Robert H; Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Chirinos-Pacheco, Julio A; Muñoz-Retamozo, Paola V; Smeeth, Liam; Checkley, William; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio

2017-11-29

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) represents a great burden for the patient and the health system, particularly if diagnosed at late stages. Consequently, tools to identify patients at high risk of having CKD are needed, particularly in limited-resources settings where laboratory facilities are scarce. This study aimed to develop a risk score for prevalent undiagnosed CKD using data from four settings in Peru: a complete risk score including all associated risk factors and another excluding laboratory-based variables. Cross-sectional study. We used two population-based studies: one for developing and internal validation (CRONICAS), and another (PREVENCION) for external validation. Risk factors included clinical- and laboratory-based variables, among others: sex, age, hypertension and obesity; and lipid profile, anemia and glucose metabolism. The outcome was undiagnosed CKD: eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 . We tested the performance of the risk scores using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive values and positive/negative likelihood ratios. Participants in both studies averaged 57.7 years old, and over 50% were females. Age, hypertension and anemia were strongly associated with undiagnosed CKD. In the external validation, at a cut-off point of 2, the complete and laboratory-free risk scores performed similarly well with a ROC area of 76.2% and 76.0%, respectively (P = 0.784). The best assessment parameter of these risk scores was their negative predictive value: 99.1% and 99.0% for the complete and laboratory-free, respectively. The developed risk scores showed a moderate performance as a screening test. People with a score of ≥ 2 points should undergo further testing to rule out CKD. Using the laboratory-free risk score is a practical approach in developing countries where laboratories are not readily available and undiagnosed CKD has significant morbidity and mortality.

Functional Movement Screen: Pain versus composite score and injury risk.

PubMed

Alemany, Joseph A; Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson; Anderson, Morgan K; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

2017-11-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) has been used as a screening tool to determine musculoskeletal injury risk using composite scores based on movement quality and/or pain. However, no direct comparisons between movement quality and pain have been quantified. Retrospective injury data analysis. Male Soldiers (n=2154, 25.0±1.3years; 26.2±.7kg/m 2 ) completed the FMS (scored from 0 points (pain) to 3 points (no pain and perfect movement quality)) with injury data over the following six months. The FMS is seven movements. Injury data were collected six months after FMS completion. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristics and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for pain occurrence and low (≤14 points) composite score. Risk, risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for injury risk. Pain was associated with slightly higher injury risk (RR=1.62) than a composite score of ≤14 points (RR=1.58). When comparing injury risk between those who scored a 1, 2 or 3 on each individual movement, no differences were found (except deep squat). However, Soldiers who experienced pain on any movement had a greater injury risk than those who scored 3 points for that movement (p<0.05). A progressive increase in the relative risk occurred as the number of movements in which pain occurrence increased, so did injury risk (p<0.01). Pain occurrence may be a stronger indicator of injury risk than a low composite score and provides a simpler method of evaluating injury risk compared to the full FMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Risk assessment of Pakistani individuals for diabetes (RAPID).

PubMed

Riaz, Musarrat; Basit, Abdul; Hydrie, Muhammad Zafar Iqbal; Shaheen, Fariha; Hussain, Akhtar; Hakeem, Rubina; Shera, Abdus Samad

2012-12-01

To develop and evaluate a risk score to predict people at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Pakistan. Cross sectional data regarding primary prevention of diabetes in Pakistan. Diabetes risk score was developed by using simple parameters namely age, waist circumference, and family history of diabetes. Odds ratios of the model were used to assign a score value for each variable and the diabetes risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. We externally validated the score using two data from 1264 subjects and 856 subjects aged 25 years and above from two separate studies respectively. Validating this score using the first data from the second screening study gave an area under the receive operator characteristics curve [AROC] of 0.758. A cut point of 4 had a sensitivity of 47.0% and specificity of 88% and in the second data AROC is 0.7 with 44% sensitivity and 89% specificity. A simple diabetes risk score, based on a set of variables can be used for the identification of high risk individuals for early intervention to delay or prevent type 2 diabetes in Pakistani population. Copyright © 2012 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CRISP: Catheterization RISk score for Pediatrics: A Report from the Congenital Cardiac Interventional Study Consortium (CCISC).

PubMed

Nykanen, David G; Forbes, Thomas J; Du, Wei; Divekar, Abhay A; Reeves, Jaxk H; Hagler, Donald J; Fagan, Thomas E; Pedra, Carlos A C; Fleming, Gregory A; Khan, Danyal M; Javois, Alexander J; Gruenstein, Daniel H; Qureshi, Shakeel A; Moore, Phillip M; Wax, David H

2016-02-01

We sought to develop a scoring system that predicts the risk of serious adverse events (SAE's) for individual pediatric patients undergoing cardiac catheterization procedures. Systematic assessment of risk of SAE in pediatric catheterization can be challenging in view of a wide variation in procedure and patient complexity as well as rapidly evolving technology. A 10 component scoring system was originally developed based on expert consensus and review of the existing literature. Data from an international multi-institutional catheterization registry (CCISC) between 2008 and 2013 were used to validate this scoring system. In addition we used multivariate methods to further refine the original risk score to improve its predictive power of SAE's. Univariate analysis confirmed the strong correlation of each of the 10 components of the original risk score with SAE attributed to a pediatric cardiac catheterization (P < 0.001 for all variables). Multivariate analysis resulted in a modified risk score (CRISP) that corresponds to an increase in value of area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.715 to 0.741. The CRISP score predicts risk of occurrence of an SAE for individual patients undergoing pediatric cardiac catheterization procedures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Construction of an Exome-Wide Risk Score for Schizophrenia Based on a Weighted Burden Test.

PubMed

Curtis, David

2018-01-01

Polygenic risk scores obtained as a weighted sum of associated variants can be used to explore association in additional data sets and to assign risk scores to individuals. The methods used to derive polygenic risk scores from common SNPs are not suitable for variants detected in whole exome sequencing studies. Rare variants, which may have major effects, are seen too infrequently to judge whether they are associated and may not be shared between training and test subjects. A method is proposed whereby variants are weighted according to their frequency, their annotations and the genes they affect. A weighted sum across all variants provides an individual risk score. Scores constructed in this way are used in a weighted burden test and are shown to be significantly different between schizophrenia cases and controls using a five-way cross-validation procedure. This approach represents a first attempt to summarise exome sequence variation into a summary risk score, which could be combined with risk scores from common variants and from environmental factors. It is hoped that the method could be developed further. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital

PubMed Central

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W.; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

2014-01-01

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions. PMID:25404329

Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores.

PubMed

Dudbridge, Frank; Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

2018-02-01

The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores

PubMed Central

Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. PMID:29178508

Prognostic discrimination for early chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia in imatinib era: comparison of Sokal, Euro, and EUTOS scores in Korean population.

PubMed

Yahng, Seung-Ah; Jang, Eun-Jung; Choi, Soo-Young; Lee, Sung-Eun; Kim, Soo-Hyun; Kim, Dong-Wook

2014-08-01

Beyond the conventional Sokal and Euro scores, a new prognostic risk classification, based on the European Treatment Outcome Study (EUTOS), has been developed to predict the outcome of treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). In the present study, each risk score was validated by various endpoints in 206 Korean patients with early chronic-phase CML treated with up-front standard dose imatinib. In our analysis, all three scores were found to be valid. The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) was significantly discriminated using Sokal (P = 0.002), Euro (P = 0.003), and EUTOS (P = 0.029), with the worst probability by Euro high-risk (62 vs. 49 vs. 67 %) and better EFS in Sokal low-risk (89 vs. 86 vs. 82 %). Combining all scores identified 6 % of all patients having homogeneous high-risk with distinctively worse outcomes (5-year EFS of 41 %, cumulative complete cytogenetic response rate of 56 %, and cumulative major molecular response rate of 27 %), whereas the group of discordance in risk scores (60 %) had similar results to those of intermediate-risk groups of Sokal and Euro scores. Combining all risk scores for baseline risk assessment may be useful in clinical practice for identifying groups of patients who may benefit from treatment initiation with a more potent TKI among the currently available first-line TKIs.

Mortality Risk After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry Risk Assessment Model.

PubMed

Codner, Pablo; Malick, Waqas; Kouz, Remi; Patel, Amisha; Chen, Cheng-Han; Terre, Juan; Landes, Uri; Vahl, Torsten Peter; George, Isaac; Nazif, Tamim; Kirtane, Ajay J; Khalique, Omar K; Hahn, Rebecca T; Leon, Martin B; Kodali, Susheel

2018-05-08

Risk assessment tools currently used to predict mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were designed for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess the accuracy of the TAVI dedicated American College of Cardiology / Transcatheter Valve Therapies (ACC/TVT) risk score in predicting mortality outcomes. Consecutive patients (n=1038) undergoing TAVI at a single institution from 2014 to 2016 were included. The ACC/TVT registry mortality risk score, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons - Patient Reported Outcomes (STS-PROM) score and the EuroSCORE II were calculated for all patients. In hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The ACC/TVT risk stratification tool scored higher for patients who died in-hospital than in those who survived the index hospitalization (6.4 ± 4.6 vs. 3.5 ± 1.6, p = 0.03; respectively). The ACC/TVT score showed a high level of discrimination, C-index for in-hospital mortality 0.74, 95% CI [0.59 - 0.88]. There were no significant differences between the performance of the ACC/TVT registry risk score, the EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM for in hospital and 30-day mortality rates. The ACC/TVT registry risk model is a dedicated tool to aid in the prediction of in-hospital mortality risk after TAVI.

Underestimation of Risk of Carotid Subclinical Atherosclerosis by Cardiovascular Risk Scores in Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis.

PubMed

Shen, Jiayun; Lam, Steven H; Shang, Qing; Wong, Chun-Kwok; Li, Edmund K; Wong, Priscilla; Kun, Emily W; Cheng, Isaac T; Li, Martin; Li, Tena K; Zhu, Tracy Y; Lee, Jack Jock-Wai; Chang, Mimi; Lee, Alex Pui-Wai; Tam, Lai-Shan

2018-02-01

To test the performances of established cardiovascular (CV) risk scores in discriminating subclinical atherosclerosis (SCA) in patients with psoriatic arthritis. These scores were calculated: Framingham risk score (FRS), QRISK2, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk algorithm (ASCVD) from the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association, and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)-recommended modified versions (by 1.5 multiplication factor, m-). Carotid intima-media thickness > 0.9 mm and/or the presence of plaque determined by ultrasound were classified as SCA+. We recruited 146 patients [49.4 ± 10.2 yrs, male: 90 (61.6%)], of whom 142/137/128/118 patients were eligible to calculate FRS/QRISK2/SCORE/ASCVD. Further, 62 (42.5%) patients were SCA+ and were significantly older, with higher systolic blood pressure and higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (all p < 0.05). All CV risk scores were significantly higher in patients with SCA+ [FRS: 7.8 (3.9-16.5) vs 2.7 (1.1-7.8), p < 0.001; QRISK2: 5.5 (3.1-10.2) vs 2.9 (1.2-6.3), p < 0.001; SCORE: 1 (0-2) vs 0 (0-1), p < 0.001; ASCVD: 5.6 (2.6-12.4) vs 3.4 (1.4-6.1), p = 0.001]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed moderate goodness of fit for the 4 CV scores (p ranged from 0.087 to 0.686). However, of the patients with SCA+, those identified as high risk were only 44.1% (by FRS > 10%), 1.8% (QRISK2 > 20%), 10.9% (SCORE > 5%), and 43.6% (ASCVD > 7.5%). By applying the EULAR multiplication factor, 50.8%/14.3%/14.5%/54.5% of the patients with SCA+ were identified as high risk by m-FRS/m-QRISK2/m-SCORE/m-ASCVD, respectively. EULAR modification increased the sensitivity of FRS and ASCVD in discriminating SCA+ from 44% to 51%, and 44% to 55%, respectively. All CV risk scores underestimated the SCA+ risk. EULAR-recommended modification improved the sensitivity of FRS and ASCVD only to a moderate level.

The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock; Lip, Gregory Y H

2012-06-01

North American and European guidelines on atrial fibrillation (AF) are conflicting regarding the classification of patients at low/intermediate risk of stroke. We aimed to investigate if the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved risk stratification of AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1. Using individual-level-linkage of nationwide Danish registries 1997-2008, we identified patients discharged with AF having a CHADS2 score of 0-1 and not treated with vitamin K antagonist or heparin. In patients with a CHADS2 score of 0, 1, and 0-1, rates of stroke/ thromboembolism were determined according to CHA2DS2-VASc score, and the risk associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). We included 47,576 patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1, from these 7,536 (15.8%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=0, 10,062 (21.2%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=1, 14,310 (30.1%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=2, 14,188 (29.8%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=3, and 1,480 (3.1%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=4. Of the cohort with a CHADS2 score of 0-1, the stroke/thromboembolism rate per 100 person-years increased with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score (95% confidence interval): 0.84 (0.65-1.08), 1.79 (1.53-2.09), 3.67 (3.34-4.03), 5.75 (5.33-6.21), and 8.18 (6.68-10.02) at one year follow-up with CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Patients with a CHADS2 score=0 were not all 'low risk', with one-year event rates ranging from 0.84 (CHA2DS2-VASc score=0) to 3.2 (CHA2DS2-VASc score=3). Results from Cox regression analyses, NRI, and IDI confirmed the improved predictive ability of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in the AF patients who have a CHADS2 score of 0-1. In conclusion, the CHA2DS2-VASc provides critical information on risk of stroke in AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1 that can aid a decision of using anticoagulation. Even in patients categorised as 'low risk' using a CHADS2 score=0, the CHA2DS2-VASc score significantly improved the predictive value of the CHADS2 score alone and a CHA2DS2-VASc score=0 could clearly identify 'truly low risk' subjects. Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score would significantly improve classification of AF patients at low and intermediate risk of stroke, compared to the commonly used CHADS2 score.

Common Clinical Practice versus new PRIM Score in Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Risk

PubMed Central

Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Schnohr, Peter; Jensen, Gorm B.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.

2011-01-01

Objectives To compare the new Patient Rule Induction Method(PRIM) Score and common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score for classification of individuals with respect to coronary heart disease(CHD) risk. Methods and Results PRIM Score and the Framingham Point Score were estimated for 11,444 participants from the Copenhagen City Heart Study. Gender specific cumulative incidences and 10 year absolute CHD risks were estimated for subsets defined by age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein(HDL) cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking categories. PRIM defined seven mutually exclusive subsets in women and men, with cumulative incidences of CHD from 0.01 to 0.22 in women, and from 0.03 to 0.26 in men. PRIM versus Framingham Point Score found 11% versus 4% of all women, and 31% versus 35% of all men to have 10 year CHD risks >20%. Among women ≥65 years with hypertension and/or with diabetes, 10 year CHD risk >20% was found for 100% with PRIM scoring but for only 18% with the Framingham Point Score. Conclusion Compared to the PRIM Score, common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score underestimates CHD risk in women, especially in women ≥65 years with hypertension and/or with diabetes. PMID:20728887

Gender, TIMI risk score and in-hospital mortality in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI: results from the Belgian STEMI registry.

PubMed

Gevaert, Sofie A; De Bacquer, Dirk; Evrard, Patrick; Convens, Carl; Dubois, Philippe; Boland, Jean; Renard, Marc; Beauloye, Christophe; Coussement, Patrick; De Raedt, Herbert; de Meester, Antoine; Vandecasteele, Els; Vranckx, Pascal; Sinnaeve, Peter R; Claeys, Marc J

2014-01-22

The relationship between the predictive performance of the TIMI risk score for STEMI and gender has not been evaluated in the setting of primary PCI (pPCI). Here, we compared in-hospital mortality and predictive performance of the TIMI risk score between Belgian women and men undergoing pPCI. In-hospital mortality was analysed in 8,073 (1,920 [23.8%] female and 6,153 [76.2%] male patients) consecutive pPCI-treated STEMI patients, included in the prospective, observational Belgian STEMI registry (January 2007 to February 2011). A multivariable logistic regression model, including TIMI risk score variables and gender, evaluated differences in in-hospital mortality between men and women. The predictive performance of the TIMI risk score according to gender was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Mortality rates for TIMI scores in women and men were compared. Female patients were older, had more comorbidities and longer ischaemic times. Crude in-hospital mortality was 10.1% in women vs. 4.9% in men (OR 2.2; 95% CI: 1.82-2.66, p<0.001). When adjusting for TIMI risk score variables, mortality remained higher in women (OR 1.47, 95% CI: 1.15-1.87, p=0.002). The TIMI risk score provided a good predictive discrimination and calibration in women as well as in men (c-statistic=0.84 [95% CI: 0.809-0.866], goodness-of-fit p=0.53 and c-statistic=0.89 [95% CI: 0.873-0.907], goodness-of-fit p=0.13, respectively), but mortality prediction for TIMI scores was better in men (p=0.02 for TIMI score x gender interaction). In the Belgian STEMI registry, pPCI-treated women had a higher in-hospital mortality rate even after correcting for TIMI risk score variables. The TIMI risk score was effective in predicting in-hospital mortality but performed slightly better in men. The database was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00727623).

External Validation of Risk Scores for Major Bleeding in a Population-Based Cohort of Transient Ischemic Attack and Ischemic Stroke Patients.

PubMed

Hilkens, Nina A; Li, Linxin; Rothwell, Peter M; Algra, Ale; Greving, Jacoba P

2018-03-01

The S 2 TOP-BLEED score may help to identify patients at high risk of bleeding on antiplatelet drugs after a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. The score was derived on trial populations, and its performance in a real-world setting is unknown. We aimed to externally validate the S 2 TOP-BLEED score for major bleeding in a population-based cohort and to compare its performance with other risk scores for bleeding. We studied risk of bleeding in 2072 patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke on antiplatelet agents in the population-based OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study) according to 3 scores: S 2 TOP-BLEED, REACH, and Intracranial-B 2 LEED 3 S. Performance was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. During 8302 patient-years of follow-up, 117 patients had a major bleed. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score showed a C statistic of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.73) and accurate calibration for 3-year risk of major bleeding. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score was much more predictive of fatal bleeding than nonmajor bleeding (C statistics 0.77; 95% CI, 0.69-0.85 and 0.50; 95% CI, 0.44-0.58). The REACH score had a C statistic of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.58-0.69) for major bleeding and the Intracranial-B 2 LEED 3 S score a C statistic of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.51-0.70) for intracranial bleeding. The ratio of ischemic events versus bleeds decreased across risk groups of bleeding from 6.6:1 in the low-risk group to 1.8:1 in the high-risk group. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score shows modest performance in a population-based cohort of patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Although bleeding risks were associated with risks of ischemic events, risk stratification may still be useful to identify a subgroup of patients at particularly high risk of bleeding, in whom preventive measures are indicated. © 2018 The Authors.

Using a genetic/clinical risk score to stop smoking (GeTSS): randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Nichols, John A A; Grob, Paul; Kite, Wendy; Williams, Peter; de Lusignan, Simon

2017-10-23

As genetic tests become cheaper, the possibility of their widespread availability must be considered. This study involves a risk score for lung cancer in smokers that is roughly 50% genetic (50% clinical criteria). The risk score has been shown to be effective as a smoking cessation motivator in hospital recruited subjects (not actively seeking cessation services). This was an RCT set in a United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) smoking cessation clinic. Smokers were identified from medical records. Subjects that wanted to participate were randomised to a test group that was administered a gene-based risk test and given a lung cancer risk score, or a control group where no risk score was performed. Each group had 8 weeks of weekly smoking cessation sessions involving group therapy and advice on smoking cessation pharmacotherapy and follow-up at 6 months. The primary endpoint was smoking cessation at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included ranking of the risk score and other motivators. 67 subjects attended the smoking cessation clinic. The 6 months quit rates were 29.4%, (10/34; 95% CI 14.1-44.7%) for the test group and 42.9% (12/28; 95% CI 24.6-61.2%) for the controls. The difference is not significant. However, the quit rate for test group subjects with a "very high" risk score was 89% (8/9; 95% CI 68.4-100%) which was significant when compared with the control group (p = 0.023) and test group subjects with moderate risk scores had a 9.5% quit rate (2/21; 95% CI 2.7-28.9%) which was significantly lower than for above moderate risk score 61.5% (8/13; 95% CI 35.5-82.3; p = 0.03). Only the sub-group with the highest risk score showed an increased quit rate. Controls and test group subjects with a moderate risk score were relatively unlikely to have achieved and maintained non-smoker status at 6 months. ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT01176383 (date of registration: 3 August 2010).

Impact of Replacing the Pooled Cohort Equation With Other Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores on Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]).

PubMed

Qureshi, Waqas T; Michos, Erin D; Flueckiger, Peter; Blaha, Michael; Sandfort, Veit; Herrington, David M; Burke, Gregory; Yeboah, Joseph

2016-09-01

The increase in statin eligibility by the new cholesterol guidelines is mostly driven by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) criterion (≥7.5% 10-year PCE). The impact of replacing the PCE with either the modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) on assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment and statin eligibility remains unknown. We assessed the comparative benefits of using the PCE, FRS, and SCORE for ASCVD risk assessment in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Of 6,815 participants, 654 (mean age 61.4 ± 10.3; 47.1% men; 37.1% whites; 27.2% blacks; 22.3% Hispanics; 12.0% Chinese-Americans) were included in analysis. Area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to compare the 3 risk scores. Decision curve analysis is the plot of net benefit versus probability thresholds; net benefit = true positive rate - (false positive rate × weighting factor). Weighting factor = Threshold probability/1 - threshold probability. After a median of 8.6 years, 342 (6.0%) ASCVD events (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, fatal or nonfatal stroke) occurred. All 4 risk scores had acceptable discriminative ability for incident ASCVD events; (AUC [95% CI] PCE: 0.737 [0.713 to 0.762]; FRS: 0.717 [0.691 to 0.743], SCORE (high risk) 0.722 [0.696 to 0.747], and SCORE (low risk): 0.721 [0.696 to 0.746]. At the ASCVD risk threshold recommended for statin eligibility for primary prevention (≥7.5%), the PCE provides the best net benefit. Replacing the PCE with the SCORE (high), SCORE (low) and FRS results in a 2.9%, 8.9%, and 17.1% further increase in statin eligibility. The PCE has the best discrimination and net benefit for primary ASCVD risk assessment in a US-based multiethnic cohort compared with the SCORE or the FRS. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

White Matter Hyperintensities Improve Ischemic Stroke Recurrence Prediction.

PubMed

Andersen, Søren Due; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Yavarian, Yousef; Lip, Gregory Y H; Bach, Flemming W

2017-01-01

Nearly one in 5 patients with ischemic stroke will invariably experience a second stroke within 5 years. Stroke risk stratification schemes based solely on clinical variables perform only modestly in non-atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and improvement of these schemes will enhance their clinical utility. Cerebral white matter hyperintensities are associated with an increased risk of incident ischemic stroke in the general population, whereas their association with the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence is more ambiguous. In a non-AF stroke cohort, we investigated the association between cerebral white matter hyperintensities and the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, and we evaluated the predictive performance of the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score (clinical scores) when augmented with information on white matter hyperintensities. In a registry-based, observational cohort study, we included 832 patients (mean age 59.6 (SD 13.9); 42.0% females) with incident ischemic stroke and no AF. We assessed the severity of white matter hyperintensities using MRI. Hazard ratios stratified by the white matter hyperintensities score and adjusted for the components of the CHA2DS2VASc score were calculated based on the Cox proportional hazards analysis. Recalibrated clinical scores were calculated by adding one point to the score for the presence of moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with the C-statistic. White matter hyperintensities were significantly associated with the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The hazard ratios ranged from 1.65 (95% CI 0.70-3.86) for mild changes to 5.28 (95% CI 1.98-14.07) for the most severe changes. C-statistics for the prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke were 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.65) for the CHA2DS2VASc score and 0.60 (95% CI 0.53-0.68) for the Essen Stroke Risk Score. The recalibrated clinical scores showed improved C-statistics: the recalibrated CHA2DS2VASc score 0.62 (95% CI 0.54-0.70; p = 0.024) and the recalibrated Essen Stroke Risk Score 0.63 (95% CI 0.56-0.71; p = 0.031). C-statistics of the white matter hyperintensities score were 0.62 (95% CI 0.52-0.68) to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.73). An increasing burden of white matter hyperintensities was independently associated with recurrent ischemic stroke in a cohort of non-AF ischemic stroke patients. Recalibration of the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score with one point for the presence of moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities led to improved discriminatory performance in ischemic stroke recurrence prediction. Risk scores based on white matter hyperintensities alone were at least as accurate as the established clinical risk scores in the prediction of ischemic stroke recurrence. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Comparison of the MASCC and CISNE scores for identifying low-risk neutropenic fever patients: analysis of data from three emergency departments of cancer centers in three continents.

PubMed

Ahn, Shin; Rice, Terry W; Yeung, Sai-Ching J; Cooksley, Tim

2018-05-01

Patients with febrile neutropenia are a heterogeneous group with a minority developing serious medical complications. Outpatient management of low-risk febrile neutropenia has been shown to be safe and cost-effective. Scoring systems, such as the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) score and Clinical Index of Stable Febrile Neutropenia (CISNE), have been developed and validated to identify low-risk patients. We aimed to compare the performance of these two scores in identifying low-risk febrile neutropenic patients. We performed a pooled analysis of patients presenting with febrile neutropenia to three tertiary cancer emergency centers in the USA, UK, and South Korea in 2015. The primary outcome measures were the occurrence of serious complications. Admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and 30-day mortality were secondary outcomes. The predictive performance of each score was analyzed. Five hundred seventy-one patients presented with febrile neutropenia. With MASCC risk index, 508 (89.1%) were classified as low-risk febrile neutropenia, compared to 60 (10.5%) with CISNE classification. Overall, the MASCC score had a greater discriminatory power in the detection of low-risk patients than the CISNE score (AUC 0.772, 95% CI 0.726-0.819 vs. 0.681, 95% CI 0.626-0.737, p = 0.0024). Both MASCC and CISNE scores have reasonable discriminatory value in predicting patients with low-risk febrile neutropenia. Risk scores should be used in conjunction with clinical judgment for the identification of patients suitable for outpatient management of neutropenic fever. Developing more accurate scores, validated in prospective settings, will be useful in facilitating more patients being managed in an outpatient setting.

Risk Assessment for Corneal Ectasia following Photorefractive Keratectomy

PubMed Central

Kaiserman, Igor; Domniz, Yuval; Sela, Tzahi; Munzer, Gur

2017-01-01

Purpose To analyze the risk factors associated with a series of ectasia cases following photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and all published cases. Methods In a retrospective study on post-PRK ectasia patients, 9 eyes of 7 patients were included, in addition to 20 eyes of 13 patients from the literature. Risk of post-PRK ectasia was calculated using the ectasia risk score system (ERSS) for laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) patients. The percent tissue altered (PTA) was also evaluated. Results ERSS scoring of zero for age, RSB, and spherical equivalent was found in 66%, 86%, and 86% of the eyes, respectively. Pachymetry risk score was 2 in 60% of the eyes and 3 or 4 in 16% of the eyes. Topography risk score was 3 in 41% of the eyes and 4 in 21% of the eyes. Cumulative ectasia risk score was ≥4 (high risk) in 77% of the eyes and ≥3 (medium and high risk) in 86% of the eyes. Average PTA was 23.2 ± 7.0%. All eyes but one had a PTA < 40%. Conclusions Preoperative corneal topographic abnormalities and thin corneas may be significant risk factors for developing ectasia following PRK. Post-LASIK ectasia risk scoring also has relevance in the risk for developing post-PRK ectasia. PMID:28815089

Dynamic TIMI Risk Score for STEMI

PubMed Central

Amin, Sameer T.; Morrow, David A.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M.

2013-01-01

Background Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in‐hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. Methods and Results The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT‐TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON‐TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in‐hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C‐statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C‐statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). Conclusions This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1‐year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions. PMID:23525425

Dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI.

PubMed

Amin, Sameer T; Morrow, David A; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M

2013-01-29

Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in-hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT-TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON-TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in-hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C-statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C-statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1-year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions.

The HEART score is useful to predict cardiovascular risks and reduces unnecessary cardiac imaging in low-risk patients with acute chest pain.

PubMed

Dai, Siping; Huang, Bo; Zou, Yunliang; Guo, Jianbin; Liu, Ziyong; Pi, Dangyu; Qiu, Yunhong; Xiao, Chun

2018-06-01

The present study was to investigate whether the HEART score can be used to evaluate cardiovascular risks and reduce unnecessary cardiac imaging in China.Acute coronary syndrome patients with the thrombosis in myocardial infarction risk score < 2 were enrolled in the emergency department. Baseline data were collected and a HEART score was determined in each participant during the indexed emergency visit. Participants were follow-up for 30 days after discharge and the studied endpoints included acute myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality.A total of 244 patients were enrolled and 2 was loss of follow-up. The mean age was 50.4 years old and male patients accounted for 64.5%. Substernal pain and featured as pressure of the pain accounted for 34.3% and 39.3%, respectively. After 30 days' follow-up, no patient in the low-risk HEART score group and 2 patients (1.5%) in the high risk HEART score group had cardiovascular events. The sensitivity of HEART score to predict cardiovascular events was 100% and the specificity was 46.7%. The potential unnecessary cardiac testing was 46.3%. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that per one category increase of the HEART score was associated with nearly 1.3-fold risk of cardiovascular events.In the low-risk acute chest pain patients, the HEART score is useful to physicians in evaluating the risk of cardiovascular events within the first 30 days. In addition, the HEART score is also useful in reducing the unnecessary cardiac imaging.

[Study on the infectious risk model of AIDS among men who have sex with men in Guangzhou].

PubMed

Hu, Pei; Zhong, Fei; Cheng, Wei-Bin; Xu, Hui-Fang; Ling, Li

2012-07-01

To develop a human immune deficiency virus (HIV) infection risk appraisal model suitable for men who has sex with men (MSM) in Guangzhou, and to provide tools for follow-up the outcomes on health education and behavior intervention. A cros-sectional study was conducted in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2010. Based on the HIV surveillance data, the main risk factors of HIV infection among MSM were screened by means of logistic regression. Degree on relative risk was transformed into risk scores by adopting the statistics models. Individual risk scores, group risk scores and individual infection risk in comparison with usual MSM groups could then be calculated according to the rate of exposure on those risk factors appeared in data from the surveillance programs. Risk factors related to HIV infection among MSM and the quantitative assessment standard (risk scores and risk scores table of population groups) for those factors were set up by multiple logistic regression, including age, location of registered residence, monthly income, major location for finding their sexual partners, HIV testing in the past year, age when having the first sexual intercourse, rate of condom use in the past six months, symptoms related to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and syphilis in particular. The average risk score of population was 6.06, with risk scores for HIV positive and negative as 3.10 and 18.08 respectively (P < 0.001). The rates of HIV infection for different score groups were 0.9%, 2.0%, 7.0%, 14.4% and 33.3%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity on the prediction of scores were 54.4% and 75.4% respectively, with the accuracy rate as 74.2%. HIV infection risk model could be used to quantify and classify the individual's infectious status and related factors among MSM more directly and effectively, so as to help the individuals to identify their high-risk behaviors as well as lifestyles. We felt that it could also serve as an important tool used for personalized HIV health education and behavior intervention programs.

Development and validation of a clinical risk score for predicting drug-resistant bacterial pneumonia in older Chinese patients.

PubMed

Ma, Hon Ming; Ip, Margaret; Woo, Jean; Hui, David S C

2014-05-01

Health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) and drug-resistant bacterial pneumonia may not share identical risk factors. We have shown that bronchiectasis, recent hospitalization and severe pneumonia (confusion, blood urea level, respiratory rate, low blood pressure and 65 year old (CURB-65) score ≥ 3) were independent predictors of pneumonia caused by potentially drug-resistant (PDR) pathogens. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical risk score for predicting drug-resistant bacterial pneumonia in older patients. We derived a risk score by assigning a weighting to each of these risk factors as follows: 14, bronchiectasis; 5, recent hospitalization; 2, severe pneumonia. A 0.5 point was defined for the presence of other risk factors for HCAP. We compared the areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of our risk score and the HCAP definition in predicting PDR pathogens in two cohorts of older patients hospitalized with non-nosocomial pneumonia. The derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 354 and 96 patients with bacterial pneumonia, respectively. PDR pathogens were isolated in 48 and 21 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The AUROCs of our risk score and the HCAP definition were 0.751 and 0.650, respectively, in the derivation cohort, and were 0.782 and 0.671, respectively, in the validation cohort. The differences between our risk score and the HCAP definition reached statistical significance. A score ≥ 2.5 had the best balance between sensitivity and specificity. Our risk score outperformed the HCAP definition to predict pneumonia caused by PDR pathogens. A history of bronchiectasis or recent hospitalization is the major indication of starting empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics. © 2014 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Antipsychotics and mortality: adjusting for mortality risk scores to address confounding by terminal illness.

PubMed

Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F

2015-03-01

To determine whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed for nursing home (NH) populations affect the magnitude of previously observed associations between mortality and conventional and atypical antipsychotics. Cohort study. A merged data set of Medicaid, Medicare, Minimum Data Set (MDS), Online Survey Certification and Reporting system, and National Death Index for 2001 to 2005. Dual-eligible individuals aged 65 and older who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (N=75,445). Three mortality risk scores (Mortality Risk Index Score, Revised MDS Mortality Risk Index, Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool) were derived for each participant using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The effect of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PSs) on the association between antipsychotic medication and mortality was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality, with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users, suggesting potential confounding, were much lower within PS deciles than the imbalances in the full cohort. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS-only adjustment versus 2.20, 2.20, and 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. Although causality cannot be proven based on nonrandomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting explanations other than causality for the greater mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics than with atypical antipsychotics. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A

2013-07-01

We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

Genetic Risk Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation

PubMed Central

Lubitz, Steven A.; Yin, Xiaoyan; Lin, Henry J.; Kolek, Matthew; Smith, J. Gustav; Trompet, Stella; Rienstra, Michiel; Rost, Natalia S.; Teixeira, Pedro L.; Almgren, Peter; Anderson, Christopher D.; Chen, Lin Y.; Engström, Gunnar; Ford, Ian; Furie, Karen L.; Guo, Xiuqing; Larson, Martin G.; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Macfarlane, Peter W.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Stott, David J.; Taylor, Kent D.; Weng, Lu-Chen; Yao, Jie; Geelhoed, Bastiaan; Verweij, Niek; Siland, Joylene E.; Kathiresan, Sekar; Roselli, Carolina; Roden, Dan; van der Harst, Pim; Darbar, Dawood; Jukema, J. Wouter; Melander, Olle; Rosand, Jonathan; Rotter, Jerome I.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Alonso, Alvaro; Benjamin, Emelia J.

2017-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common and has a substantial genetic basis. Identification of individuals at greatest AF risk could minimize the incidence of cardioembolic stroke. Methods To determine whether genetic data can stratify risk for development of AF, we examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and incident AF in five prospective studies comprising 18,919 individuals of European ancestry. We examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and ischemic stroke in a separate study of 509 ischemic stroke cases (202 cardioembolic [40%]) and 3,028 controls. Scores were based on 11 to 719 common variants (≥5%) associated with AF at P-values ranging from <1×10−3 to <1×10−8 in a prior independent genetic association study. Results Incident AF occurred in 1,032 (5.5%) individuals. AF genetic risk scores were associated with new-onset AF after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The pooled hazard ratio for incident AF for the highest versus lowest quartile of genetic risk scores ranged from 1.28 (719 variants; 95%CI, 1.13–1.46; P=1.5×10−4) to 1.67 (25 variants; 95%CI, 1.47–1.90; P=9.3×10−15). Discrimination of combined clinical and genetic risk scores varied across studies and scores (maximum C statistic, 0.629–0.811; maximum ΔC statistic from clinical score alone, 0.009–0.017). AF genetic risk was associated with stroke in age- and sex-adjusted models. For example, individuals in the highest quartile of a 127-variant score had a 2.49-fold increased odds of cardioembolic stroke, versus those in the lowest quartile (95%CI, 1.39–4.58; P=2.7×10−3). The effect persisted after excluding individuals (n=70) with known AF (odds ratio, 2.25; 95%CI, 1.20–4.40; P=0.01). Conclusions Comprehensive AF genetic risk scores were associated with incident AF beyond clinical AF risk factors, with magnitudes of risk comparable to other clinical risk factors, though offered small improvements in discrimination. AF genetic risk was also associated with cardioembolic stroke in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Efforts to determine whether AF genetic risk may improve identification of subclinical AF or distinguish stroke mechanisms are warranted. PMID:27793994

Case complexity scores in congenital heart surgery: a comparative study of the Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) system.

PubMed

Al-Radi, Osman O; Harrell, Frank E; Caldarone, Christopher A; McCrindle, Brian W; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Williams, M Gail; Van Arsdell, Glen S; Williams, William G

2007-04-01

The Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery system were developed by consensus to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. We compared the predictive value of the 2 systems. Of all index congenital cardiac operations at our institution from 1982 to 2004 (n = 13,675), we were able to assign an Aristotle Basic Complexity score, a Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery score, and both scores to 13,138 (96%), 11,533 (84%), and 11,438 (84%) operations, respectively. Models of in-hospital mortality and length of stay were generated for Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery using an identical data set in which both Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were assigned. The likelihood ratio test for nested models and paired concordance statistics were used. After adjustment for year of operation, the odds ratios for Aristotle Basic Complexity score 3 versus 6, 9 versus 6, 12 versus 6, and 15 versus 6 were 0.29, 2.22, 7.62, and 26.54 (P < .0001). Similarly, odds ratios for Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery categories 1 versus 2, 3 versus 2, 4 versus 2, and 5/6 versus 2 were 0.23, 1.98, 5.80, and 20.71 (P < .0001). Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery added significant predictive value over Aristotle Basic Complexity (likelihood ratio chi2 = 162, P < .0001), whereas Aristotle Basic Complexity contributed much less predictive value over Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (likelihood ratio chi2 = 13.4, P = .009). Neither system fully adjusted for the child's age. The Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were more concordant with length of stay compared with Aristotle Basic Complexity scores (P < .0001). The predictive value of Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery is higher than that of Aristotle Basic Complexity. The use of Aristotle Basic Complexity or Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery as risk stratification and trending tools to monitor outcomes over time and to guide risk-adjusted comparisons may be valuable.

Comparison of the ACC/AHA and Framingham algorithms to assess cardiovascular risk in HIV-infected patients.

PubMed

Pinto Neto, Lauro Ferreira da Silva; Dias, Fernanda Rezende; Bressan, Flavia Feres; Santos, Carolina Rocio Oliveira

The aim of this study was to compare the predictions of Framingham cardiovascular (CV) risk score (FRS) and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk score in an HIV outpatient clinic in the city of Vitoria, Espirito Santo, Brazil. In a cross-sectional study 341 HIV infected patients over 40 years old consecutively recruited were interviewed. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement between the two algorithms. 61.3% were stratified as low risk by Framingham score, compared with 54% by ACC/AHA score (Spearman correlation 0.845; p<0.000). Only 26.1% were classified as cardiovascular high risk by Framingham compared to 46% by ACC/AHA score (Kappa=0.745; p<0.039). Only one out of eight patients had cardiovascular high risk by Framingham at the time of a myocardial infarction event registered up to five years before the study period. Both cardiovascular risk scores but especially Framingham underestimated high-risk patients in this HIV-infected population. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Ventilator Dependence Risk Score for the Prediction of Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation in Patients Who Survive Sepsis/Septic Shock with Respiratory Failure.

PubMed

Chang, Ya-Chun; Huang, Kuo-Tung; Chen, Yu-Mu; Wang, Chin-Chou; Wang, Yi-Hsi; Tseng, Chia-Cheng; Lin, Meng-Chih; Fang, Wen-Feng

2018-04-04

We intended to develop a scoring system to predict mechanical ventilator dependence in patients who survive sepsis/septic shock with respiratory failure. This study evaluated 251 adult patients in medical intensive care units (ICUs) between August 2013 to October 2015, who had survived for over 21 days and received aggressive treatment. The risk factors for ventilator dependence were determined. We then constructed a ventilator dependence (VD) risk score using the identified risk factors. The ventilator dependence risk score was calculated as the sum of the following four variables after being adjusted by proportion to the beta coefficient. We assigned a history of previous stroke, a score of one point, platelet count less than 150,000/μL a score of one point, pH value less than 7.35 a score of two points, and the fraction of inspired oxygen on admission day 7 over 39% as two points. The area under the curve in the derivation group was 0.725 (p < 0.001). We then applied the VD risk score for validation on 175 patients. The area under the curve in the validation group was 0.658 (p = 0.001). VD risk score could be applied to predict prolonged mechanical ventilation in patients who survive sepsis/septic shock.

Stroke risks and patterns of warfarin therapy among atrial fibrillation patients post radiofrequency ablation: A real-world experience.

PubMed

Zhang, Juan; Liu, Xingpeng; Liu, Xiaoqing; Yin, Xiandong; Wang, Yanjiang; Lu, Xiaoying; Yang, Xinchun

2017-11-01

We assessed the thromboembolic risks of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients who had undergone radiofrequency ablation (RFA) using the CHADS2-VASc risk scoring system and further investigated the patterns of warfarin use for thromboprophylaxis according to patient thromboembolic risk scores.In this study, we analyzed the stroke risks of patients who had undergone RFA for AF at our hospital between March 2014 and June 2016 using the CHADS2, CHADS2-VASc, and Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly (> 65 years) (HAS-BLED) scoring systems. We retrieved medications, co-morbidities, and initial warfarin dosage data. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients initiated with warfarin therapy for stroke prophylaxis in AF who had a CHADS2-VASc score of 0.Totally, 309 patients were initiated with warfarin therapy for stroke prophylaxis in AF post-RFA. The baseline warfarin dosage was 2.76 ± 0.61 mg. The baseline CHADS2-VASC score was 2.93 ± 1.96 and 40 (12.95%) had a CHADS2-VASC score of 0, 42 (13.6%) had a CHADS2-VASCscore of 1, and 227 (73.5%) had a CHADS2-VASC score ≥2. The baseline CHADS2 score was 2.17 ± 1.55 and 48 (15.5%) had a CHADS2 score of 0, 68 (22.0%) had a CHADS2 score of 1, and 193 (62.5%) had a CHADS2 score ≥2. The baseline HAS-BLED score was 1.25 ± 0.91 and 69 (22.3%) had a HAS-BLED score of 0, 121 (39.2%) had a HAS-BLED score of 1, and 119 (38.5%) had a HAS-BLED score ≥2. Patients aged <65 years or 65 years, male and female patients, patients with or without hypertension, coronary heart disease, or diabetes mellitus, and patients with or without previous stroke/transient ischemic attack differed significantly in stroke risks by CHADS2-VASC, CHADS2, and HAS-BLED scores for stroke risks. Patients with different baseline international normalized ratio differed significantly in CHADS2-VASC scores. Furthermore, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers and statins were of statistical significance for stroke risks.The majority of AF patients post-RFAs was of high stroke risk and received warfarin thromboprophylaxis in accordance with national guidelines. Our findings suggest that low and intermediate stroke risk patients should be evaluated for stroke risks and risk factors so that tailored warfarin thromboprophylaxis therapy can be given and inappropriate use of warfarin in AF patients can be avoided. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Coronary Artery Calcium as an Independent Surrogate Marker in the Risk Assessment of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and an Intermediate Pretest Likelihood for Coronary Artery Disease Admitted to a German Chest Pain Unit.

PubMed

Breuckmann, Frank; Olligs, Jan; Hinrichs, Liane; Koopmann, Matthias; Lichtenberg, Michael; Böse, Dirk; Fischer, Dieter; Eckardt, Lars; Waltenberger, Johannes; Garvey, J Lee

2016-03-01

About 10% of patients admitted to a chest pain unit (CPU) exhibit atrial fibrillation (AF). To determine whether calcium scores (CS) are superior over common risk scores for coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients presenting with atypical chest pain, newly diagnosed AF, and intermediate pretest probability for CAD within the CPU. In 73 subjects, CS was related to the following risk scores: Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, including a new model of a frequency-normalized approach; Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction score; European Society of Cardiology Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE); Framingham risk score; and Prospective Cardiovascular Münster Study score. Revascularization rates during index stay were assessed. Median CS was 77 (interquartile range, 1-270), with higher values in men and the left anterior descending artery. Only the modified GRACE (ρ = 0.27; P = 0.02) and the SCORE (ρ = 0.39; P < 0.005) were significantly correlated with CS, whereas the GRACE (τ = 0.21; P = 0.04) and modified GRACE (τ = 0.23; P = 0.02) scores were significantly correlated with percentile groups. Only the CS significantly discriminated between those with and without stenosis (P < 0.01). Apart from modified GRACE score, overall correlations between risk scores and calcium burden, as well as revascularization rates during index stay, were low. By contrast, the determination of CS may be used as an additional surrogate marker in risk stratification in AF patients with intermediate pretest likelihood for CAD admitted to a CPU. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk scores: Who, when and why?

PubMed Central

Monteiro, Sara; Gonçalves, Tiago Cúrdia; Magalhães, Joana; Cotter, José

2016-01-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the complications, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact. PMID:26909231

Association between the Family Nutrition and Physical Activity screening tool and cardiovascular disease risk factors in 10-year old children

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yee, Kimbo Edward

Purpose. To examine the association of the Family Nutrition and Physical Activity (FNPA) screening tool, a behaviorally based screening tool designed to assess the obesogenic family environment and behaviors, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in 10-year old children. Methods. One hundred nineteen children were assessed for body mass index (BMI), percent body fat (%BF), waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and resting blood pressure. A continuous CVD risk score was created using total cholesterol to HDL-cholesterol ratio (TC:HDL), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and WC. The FNPA survey was completed by parents. The associations between the FNPA score and individual CVD risk factors and the continuous CVD risk score were examined using correlation analyses. Results. Approximately 35% of the sample were overweight (19%) or obese (16%). The mean FNPA score was 24.6 +/- 2.5 (range 18 to 29). Significant correlations were found between the FNPA score and WC (r = -.35, p<.01), BMI percentile (r = -.38, p<.01), %BF (r = -.43, p<.01), and the continuous CVD risk score (r = -.22, p = .02). No significant association was found between the FNPA score and TC:HDL (r=0.10, p=0.88) or MAP (r=-0.12, p=0.20). Conclusion. Children from a high-risk, obesogenic family environment as indicated with a lower FNPA score have a higher CVD risk factor profile than children from a low-risk family environment.

The 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk index is better than SCORE and QRisk II in rheumatoid arthritis: is it enough?

PubMed

Ozen, Gulsen; Sunbul, Murat; Atagunduz, Pamir; Direskeneli, Haner; Tigen, Kursat; Inanc, Nevsun

2016-03-01

To determine the ability of the new American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk algorithm in detecting high cardiovascular (CV) risk, RA patients identified by carotid ultrasonography (US) were compared with Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and QRisk II algorithms. SCORE, QRisk II, 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk and EULAR recommended modified versions were calculated in 216 RA patients. In sonographic evaluation, carotid intima-media thickness >0.90 mm and/or carotid plaques were used as the gold standard test for subclinical atherosclerosis and high CV risk (US+). Eleven (5.1%), 15 (6.9%) and 44 (20.4%) patients were defined as having high CV risk according to SCORE, QRisk II and ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. Fifty-two (24.1%) patients were US + and of those, 8 (15.4%), 7 (13.5%) and 23 (44.2%) patients were classified as high CV risk according to SCORE, QRisk II and ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. The ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk index better identified US + patients than SCORE and QRisk II (P < 0.0001). With EULAR modification, reclassification from moderate to high risk occurred only in two, five and seven patients according to SCORE, QRisk II and ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. The 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year ASCVD risk estimator was better than the SCORE and QRisk II indices in RA, but still failed to identify 55% of high risk patients. Furthermore adjustment of threshold and EULAR modification did not work well. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys.

PubMed

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-03-01

Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys

PubMed Central

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Al-Wotayan, Rihab; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Azizi, Fereidoun; Bentham, James; Cifkova, Renata; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Eriksen, Louise; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferguson, Trevor S; Ikeda, Nayu; Khalili, Davood; Khang, Young-Ho; Lanska, Vera; León-Muñoz, Luz; Magliano, Dianna J; Margozzini, Paula; Msyamboza, Kelias P; Mutungi, Gerald; Oh, Kyungwon; Oum, Sophal; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Valdivia, Gonzalo; Wilks, Rainford; Shaw, Jonathan E; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tolstrup, Janne S; Zhou, Bin; Salomon, Joshua A; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-01-01

Summary Background Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40–74 years. Methods Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40–64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Findings Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40–64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Interpretation Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. PMID:28126460

Real-Time Risk Prediction on the Wards: A Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Kang, Michael A; Churpek, Matthew M; Zadravecz, Frank J; Adhikari, Richa; Twu, Nicole M; Edelson, Dana P

2016-08-01

Failure to detect clinical deterioration in the hospital is common and associated with poor patient outcomes and increased healthcare costs. Our objective was to evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of real-time risk stratification using the electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score, an electronic health record-based early warning score. We conducted a prospective black-box validation study. Data were transmitted via HL7 feed in real time to an integration engine and database server wherein the scores were calculated and stored without visualization for clinical providers. The high-risk threshold was set a priori. Timing and sensitivity of electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score activation were compared with standard-of-care Rapid Response Team activation for patients who experienced a ward cardiac arrest or ICU transfer. Three general care wards at an academic medical center. A total of 3,889 adult inpatients. The system generated 5,925 segments during 5,751 admissions. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score was 0.88 for cardiac arrest and 0.80 for ICU transfer, consistent with previously published derivation results. During the study period, eight of 10 patients with a cardiac arrest had high-risk electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage scores, whereas the Rapid Response Team was activated on two of these patients (p < 0.05). Furthermore, electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score identified 52% (n = 201) of the ICU transfers compared with 34% (n = 129) by the current system (p < 0.001). Patients met the high-risk electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score threshold a median of 30 hours prior to cardiac arrest or ICU transfer versus 1.7 hours for standard Rapid Response Team activation. Electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score identified significantly more cardiac arrests and ICU transfers than standard Rapid Response Team activation and did so many hours in advance.

An analysis of key environmental and social risks in the development of concentrated solar power projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otieno, George A.; Loosen, Alexander E.

2016-05-01

Concentrated Solar Power projects have impacts on local environment and social conditions. This research set out to investigate the environmental and social risks in the development of such projects and rank these risks from highest to lowest. The risks were analysed for parabolic trough and tower technologies only. A literature review was undertaken, identifying seventeen risks that were then proposed to six CSP experts for scoring. The risks were scored based of five factors on a five tier scale. The scores from the experts were compiled to develop an overall rank of the identified risks. The risk of disruption of local water resources was found to represent the highest risk before and after mitigation with a score of moderate-high and moderate respectively. This score is linked to the importance of water in water scarce regions typified by the best regions for CSP. The risks to avian species, to worker health and safety, due to noise on the environment, to visual and recreational resources completed the top five risks after mitigation.

Utility of existing diabetes risk prediction tools for young black and white adults: Evidence from the Bogalusa Heart Study.

PubMed

Pollock, Benjamin D; Hu, Tian; Chen, Wei; Harville, Emily W; Li, Shengxu; Webber, Larry S; Fonseca, Vivian; Bazzano, Lydia A

2017-01-01

To evaluate several adult diabetes risk calculation tools for predicting the development of incident diabetes and pre-diabetes in a bi-racial, young adult population. Surveys beginning in young adulthood (baseline age ≥18) and continuing across multiple decades for 2122 participants of the Bogalusa Heart Study were used to test the associations of five well-known adult diabetes risk scores with incident diabetes and pre-diabetes using separate Cox models for each risk score. Racial differences were tested within each model. Predictive utility and discrimination were determined for each risk score using the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and Harrell's c-statistic. All risk scores were strongly associated (p<.0001) with incident diabetes and pre-diabetes. The Wilson model indicated greater risk of diabetes for blacks versus whites with equivalent risk scores (HR=1.59; 95% CI 1.11-2.28; p=.01). C-statistics for the diabetes risk models ranged from 0.79 to 0.83. Non-event NRIs indicated high specificity (non-event NRIs: 76%-88%), but poor sensitivity (event NRIs: -23% to -3%). Five diabetes risk scores established in middle-aged, racially homogenous adult populations are generally applicable to younger adults with good specificity but poor sensitivity. The addition of race to these models did not result in greater predictive capabilities. A more sensitive risk score to predict diabetes in younger adults is needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and evaluation of an office ergonomic risk checklist: ROSA--rapid office strain assessment.

PubMed

Sonne, Michael; Villalta, Dino L; Andrews, David M

2012-01-01

The Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA) was designed to quickly quantify risks associated with computer work and to establish an action level for change based on reports of worker discomfort. Computer use risk factors were identified in previous research and standards on office design for the chair, monitor, telephone, keyboard and mouse. The risk factors were diagrammed and coded as increasing scores from 1 to 3. ROSA final scores ranged in magnitude from 1 to 10, with each successive score representing an increased presence of risk factors. Total body discomfort and ROSA final scores for 72 office workstations were significantly correlated (R = 0.384). ROSA final scores exhibited high inter- and intra-observer reliability (ICCs of 0.88 and 0.91, respectively). Mean discomfort increased with increasing ROSA scores, with a significant difference occurring between scores of 3 and 5 (out of 10). A ROSA final score of 5 might therefore be useful as an action level indicating when immediate change is necessary. ROSA proved to be an effective and reliable method for identifying computer use risk factors related to discomfort. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Developing a Conceptually Equivalent Type 2 Diabetes Risk Score for Indian Gujaratis in the UK

PubMed Central

Patel, Naina; Stone, Margaret; Barber, Shaun; Gray, Laura; Davies, Melanie; Khunti, Kamlesh

2016-01-01

Aims. To apply and assess the suitability of a model consisting of commonly used cross-cultural translation methods to achieve a conceptually equivalent Gujarati language version of the Leicester self-assessment type 2 diabetes risk score. Methods. Implementation of the model involved multiple stages, including pretesting of the translated risk score by conducting semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of volunteers. Interviews were conducted on an iterative basis to enable findings to inform translation revisions and to elicit volunteers' ability to self-complete and understand the risk score. Results. The pretest stage was an essential component involving recruitment of a diverse sample of 18 Gujarati volunteers, many of whom gave detailed suggestions for improving the instructions for the calculation of the risk score and BMI table. Volunteers found the standard and level of Gujarati accessible and helpful in understanding the concept of risk, although many of the volunteers struggled to calculate their BMI. Conclusions. This is the first time that a multicomponent translation model has been applied to the translation of a type 2 diabetes risk score into another language. This project provides an invaluable opportunity to share learning about the transferability of this model for translation of self-completed risk scores in other health conditions. PMID:27703985

Assessing the Performance of 3 Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence Risk Scores in a Cohort of Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men in the South.

PubMed

Jones, Jeb; Hoenigl, Martin; Siegler, Aaron J; Sullivan, Patrick S; Little, Susan; Rosenberg, Eli

2017-05-01

Risk scores have been developed to identify men at high risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion. These scores can be used to more efficiently allocate public health prevention resources, such as pre-exposure prophylaxis. However, the published scores were developed with data sets that comprise predominantly white men who have sex with men (MSM) collected several years prior and recruited from a limited geographic area. Thus, it is unclear how well these scores perform in men of different races or ethnicities or men in different geographic regions. We assessed the predictive ability of 3 published scores to predict HIV seroconversion in a cohort of black and white MSM in Atlanta, GA. Questionnaire data from the baseline study visit were used to derive individual scores for each participant. We assessed the discriminatory ability of each risk score to predict HIV seroconversion over 2 years of follow-up. The predictive ability of each score was low among all MSM and lower among black men compared to white men. Each score had lower sensitivity to predict seroconversion among black MSM compared to white MSM and low area under the curve values for the receiver operating characteristic curve indicating poor discriminatory ability. Reliance on the currently available risk scores will result in misclassification of high proportions of MSM, especially black MSM, in terms of HIV risk, leading to missed opportunities for HIV prevention services.

The cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin versus sulfonylurea as an add-on to metformin in the treatment of Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Charokopou, M; McEwan, P; Lister, S; Callan, L; Bergenheim, K; Tolley, K; Postema, R; Townsend, R; Roudaut, M

2015-07-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor, compared with a sulfonylurea, when added to metformin for treatment of UK people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus inadequately controlled on metformin alone. Clinical inputs sourced from a head-to-head randomized controlled trial (RCT) informed the Cardiff diabetes decision model. Risk equations developed from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) were used in conjunction with the clinical inputs to predict disease progression and the incidence of micro- and macrovascular complications over a lifetime horizon. Cost and utility data were generated to present the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for both treatment arms, and sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess the impact of uncertainty on the final model results. The dapagliflozin treatment arm was associated with a mean incremental benefit of 0.467 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.420; 0.665], with an incremental cost of £1246 (95% CI: £613; £1637). This resulted in an ICER point estimate of £2671 per QALY gained. Incremental costs were shown to be insensitive to parameter variation, with only treatment-related weight change having a significant impact on the incremental QALYs. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis determined that dapagliflozin had a 100% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY. Dapagliflozin in combination with metformin was shown to be a cost-effective treatment option compared with sulfonylurea from a UK healthcare perspective for people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus who are inadequately controlled on metformin monotherapy. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.

Evaluating the Laboratory Risk Indicator to Differentiate Cellulitis from Necrotizing Fasciitis in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Neeki, Michael M.; Dong, Fanglong; Au, Christine; Toy, Jake; Khoshab, Nima; Lee, Carol; Kwong, Eugene; Yuen, Ho Wang; Lee, Jonathan; Ayvazian, Arbi; Lux, Pamela; Borger, Rodney

2017-01-01

Introduction Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is an uncommon but rapidly progressive infection that results in gross morbidity and mortality if not treated in its early stages. The Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score is used to distinguish NF from other soft tissue infections such as cellulitis or abscess. This study analyzed the ability of the LRINEC score to accurately rule out NF in patients who were confirmed to have cellulitis, as well as the capability to differentiate cellulitis from NF. Methods This was a 10-year retrospective chart-review study that included emergency department (ED) patients ≥18 years old with a diagnosis of cellulitis or NF. We calculated a LRINEC score ranging from 0–13 for each patient with all pertinent laboratory values. Three categories were developed per the original LRINEC score guidelines denoting NF risk stratification: high risk (LRINEC score ≥8), moderate risk (LRINEC score 6–7), and low risk (LRINEC score ≤5). All cases missing laboratory values were due to the absence of a C-reactive protein (CRP) value. Since the score for a negative or positive CRP value for the LRINEC score was 0 or 4 respectively, a LRINEC score of 0 or 1 without a CRP value would have placed the patient in the “low risk” group and a LRINEC score of 8 or greater without CRP value would have placed the patient in the “high risk” group. These patients missing CRP values were added to these respective groups. Results Among the 948 ED patients with cellulitis, more than one-tenth (10.7%, n=102 of 948) were moderate or high risk for NF based on LRINEC score. Of the 135 ED patients with a diagnosis of NF, 22 patients had valid CRP laboratory values and LRINEC scores were calculated. Among the other 113 patients without CRP values, six patients had a LRINEC score ≥ 8, and 19 patients had a LRINEC score ≤ 1. Thus, a total of 47 patients were further classified based on LRINEC score without a CRP value. More than half of the NF group (63.8%, n=30 of 47) had a low risk based on LRINEC ≤5. Moreover, LRINEC appeared to perform better in the diabetes population than in the non-diabetes population. Conclusion The LRINEC score may not be an accurate tool for NF risk stratification and differentiation between cellulitis and NF in the ED setting. This decision instrument demonstrated a high false positive rate when determining NF risk stratification in confirmed cases of cellulitis and a high false negative rate in cases of confirmed NF. PMID:28611889

Impact of genomic risk factors on survival after haematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients with acute leukaemia.

PubMed

Pearce, K F; Balavarca, Y; Norden, J; Jackson, G; Holler, E; Dressel, R; Greinix, H; Toubert, A; Gluckman, E; Hromadnikova, I; Sedlacek, P; Wolff, D; Holtick, U; Bickeböller, H; Dickinson, A M

2016-12-01

The EBMT risk score is an established tool successfully used in the prognosis of survival post-HSCT and is applicable for a range of haematological disorders. One of its main advantages is that score generation involves summation of clinical parameters that are available pretransplant. However, the EBMT risk score is recognized as not being optimal. Previous analyses, involving patients with various diagnoses, have shown that non-HLA gene polymorphisms influence outcome after allogeneic HSCT. This study is novel as it focuses only on patients having acute leukaemia (N = 458) and attempts to demonstrate how non-HLA gene polymorphisms can be added to the EBMT risk score in a Cox regression model to improve prognostic ability for overall survival. The results of the study found that three genetic factors improved EBMT risk score. The presence of MAL (rs8177374) allele T in the patient, absence of glucocorticoid receptor haplotype (consisting of rs6198, rs33389 and rs33388) ACT in the patient and absence of heat-shock protein 70-hom (+2437) (rs2227956) allele C in the patient were associated with decreased survival time. When compared to the EBMT risk score, the scores combining EBMT risk score with the genetic factors had an improved correlation with clinical outcome and better separation of risk groups. A bootstrapping technique, involving repeated testing of a model using multiple validation sets, also revealed that the newly proposed model had improved predictive value when compared to the EBMT risk score alone. Results support the view that non-HLA polymorphisms could be useful for pretransplant clinical assessment and provide evidence that polymorphisms in the recipient genotype may influence incoming donor cells, suppressing the initiation of the graft versus leukaemia effect and reducing survival. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A biomarker-based risk score to predict death in patients with atrial fibrillation: the ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history) death risk score

PubMed Central

Hijazi, Ziad; Oldgren, Jonas; Lindbäck, Johan; Alexander, John H; Connolly, Stuart J; Eikelboom, John W; Ezekowitz, Michael D; Held, Claes; Hylek, Elaine M; Lopes, Renato D; Yusuf, Salim; Granger, Christopher B; Siegbahn, Agneta; Wallentin, Lars

2018-01-01

Abstract Aims In atrial fibrillation (AF), mortality remains high despite effective anticoagulation. A model predicting the risk of death in these patients is currently not available. We developed and validated a risk score for death in anticoagulated patients with AF including both clinical information and biomarkers. Methods and results The new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 611 patients with AF randomized to apixaban vs. warfarin for a median of 1.9 years. External validation was performed in 8548 patients with AF randomized to dabigatran vs. warfarin for 2.0 years. Biomarker samples were obtained at study entry. Variables significantly contributing to the prediction of all-cause mortality were assessed by Cox-regression. Each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. There were 1047 all-cause deaths in the derivation and 594 in the validation cohort. The most important predictors of death were N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin-T, growth differentiation factor-15, age, and heart failure, and these were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history)-death risk score. The score was well-calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than a model based on all clinical variables in both the derivation (0.74 vs. 0.68) and validation cohorts (0.74 vs. 0.67). The reduction in mortality with apixaban was most pronounced in patients with a high ABC-death score. Conclusion A new biomarker-based score for predicting risk of death in anticoagulated AF patients was developed, internally and externally validated, and well-calibrated in two large cohorts. The ABC-death risk score performed well and may contribute to overall risk assessment in AF. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00412984 and NCT00262600 PMID:29069359

Skin autofluorescence as proxy of tissue AGE accumulation is dissociated from SCORE cardiovascular risk score, and remains so after 3 years.

PubMed

Tiessen, Ans H; Jager, Willemein; ter Bogt, Nancy C W; Beltman, Frank W; van der Meer, Klaas; Broer, Jan; Smit, Andries J

2014-01-01

Skin autofluorescence (SAF), as a proxy of AGE accumulation, is predictive of cardiovascular (CVD) complications in i.a. type 2 diabetes mellitus and renal failure, independently of most conventional CVD risk factors. The present exploratory substudy of the Groningen Overweight and Lifestyle (GOAL)-project addresses whether SAF is related to Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk estimation (% 10-year CVD-mortality risk) in overweight/obese persons in primary care, without diabetes/renal disease, and if after 3-year treatment of risk factors (change in, Δ) SAF is related to ΔSCORE. In a sample of 65 participants from the GOAL study, with a body mass index (BMI) >25-40 kg/m2, hypertension and/or dyslipidemia, but without diabetes/renal disease, SAF and CVD risk factors were measured at baseline, and after 3 years of lifestyle and pharmaceutical treatment. At baseline, the mean SCORE risk estimation was 3.1±2.6%, mean SAF 2.04±0.5AU. In multivariate analysis SAF was strongly related to age, but not to other risk factors/SCORE. After 3 years ΔSAF was 0.34±0.45 AU (p<0.001). ΔSAF was negatively related to Δbodyweight but not to ΔSCORE%, or its components. At follow-up, SAF was higher in 11 patients with a history of CVD compared to 54 persons without CVD (p=0.002). Baseline and 3-year-Δ SAF are not related to (Δ)SCORE, or its components, except age, in the studied population. ΔSAF was negatively related to Δweight. As 3-year SAF was higher in persons with CVD, these results support a larger study on SAF to assess its contribution to conventional risk factors/SCORE in predicting CVD in overweight persons with low-intermediate cardiovascular risk.

Understanding factors that influence the use of risk scoring instruments in the management of patients with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the Netherlands: a qualitative study of health care practitioners' perceptions.

PubMed

Engel, Josien; Heeren, Marie-Julie; van der Wulp, Ineke; de Bruijne, Martine C; Wagner, Cordula

2014-09-22

Cardiac risk scores estimate a patient's risk of future cardiac events or death. They are developed to inform treatment decisions of patients diagnosed with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Despite recommending their use in guidelines and evidence of their prognostic value, they seem underused in practice. The purpose of the study was to gain insight in the motivation for implementing cardiac risk scores, and perceptions of health care practitioners towards the use of these instruments in clinical practice. This qualitative study involved semi-structured interviews with 31 health care practitioners at 11 hospitals throughout the Netherlands. Participants were approached through purposive sampling to represent a broad range of participant- and hospital characteristics, and included cardiologists, medical residents, medical interns, nurse practitioners and an emergency physician. The Pettigrew and Whipp Framework for strategic change was used as a theoretical basis. Data were initially analysed through open coding to avoid forcing data into categories predetermined by the framework. Cardiac risk score use was dependent on several factors, including IT support, clinical relevance for daily practice, rotation of staff and workload. Both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers for implementation were identified. Reminders, feedback and IT solutions were strategies used to improve and sustain the use of these instruments. The scores were seen as valuable support systems in improving uniformity in treatment practices, educating interns, conducting research and quantifying a practitioner's own risk assessment. However, health care practitioners varied in their perceptions regarding the influence of cardiac risk scores on treatment decisions. Health care practitioners disagree on the value of cardiac risk scores for clinical practice. Practitioners driven by intrinsic motivations predominantly experienced benefits in policy-making, education and research. Practitioners who were forced to use cardiac risk scores were less likely to take into account the risk score in their treatment decisions. The results of this study can be used to develop strategies that stimulate or sustain cardiac risk score use in practice, while taking into account barriers that affect cardiac risk score use, and possibly reduce practice variation in the management of unstable angina and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients.

Validation of the Canada Acute Coronary Syndrome Risk Score for Hospital Mortality in the Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events-2.

PubMed

AlFaleh, Hussam F; Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi A; Ullah, Anhar; AlHabib, Khalid F; Hersi, Ahmad; Suwaidi, Jassim Al; Sulaiman, Kadhim; Saif, Shukri Al; Almahmeed, Wael; Asaad, Nidal; Amin, Haitham; Al-Motarreb, Ahmed; Kashour, Tarek

2015-09-01

Several risk scores have been developed for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients, but their use is limited by their complexity. The new Canada Acute Coronary Syndrome (C-ACS) risk score is a simple risk-assessment tool for ACS patients. This study assessed the performance of the C-ACS risk score in predicting hospital mortality in a contemporary Middle Eastern ACS cohort. The C-ACS score accurately predicts hospital mortality in ACS patients. The baseline risk of 7929 patients from 6 Arab countries who were enrolled in the Gulf RACE-2 registry was assessed using the C-ACS risk score. The score ranged from 0 to 4, with 1 point assigned for the presence of each of the following variables: age ≥75 years, Killip class >1, systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg, and heart rate >100 bpm. The discriminative ability and calibration of the score were assessed using C statistics and goodness-of-fit tests, respectively. The C-ACS score demonstrated good predictive values for hospital mortality in all ACS patients with a C statistic of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74-0.80) and in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome patients (C statistic: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.73-0.79; and C statistic: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.75-0.84, respectively). The discriminative ability of the score was moderate regardless of age category, nationality, and diabetic status. Overall, calibration was optimal in all subgroups. The new C-ACS score performed well in predicting hospital mortality in a contemporary ACS population outside North America. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Subclinical cardiovascular disease assessment and its relationship with cardiovascular risk SCORE in a healthy adult population: A cross-sectional community-based study.

PubMed

Mitu, Ovidiu; Roca, Mihai; Floria, Mariana; Petris, Antoniu Octavian; Graur, Mariana; Mitu, Florin

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship and the accuracy of SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project) risk correlated to multiple methods for determining subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a healthy population. This cross-sectional study included 120 completely asymptomatic subjects, with an age range 35-75 years, and randomly selected from the general population. The individuals were evaluated clinically and biochemical, and the SCORE risk was computed. Subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by various methods: carotid ultrasound for intima-media thickness (cIMT) and plaque detection; aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV); echocardiography - left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and aortic atheromatosis (AA); ankle-brachial index (ABI). SCORE mean value was 2.95±2.71, with 76% of subjects having SCORE <5. Sixty-four percent of all subjects have had increased subclinical CVD changes, and SCORE risk score was correlated positively with all markers, except for ABI. In the multivariate analysis, increased cIMT and aPWV were significantly associated with high value of SCORE risk (OR 4.14, 95% CI: 1.42-12.15, p=0.009; respectively OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.01-1.96, p=0.039). A positive linear relationship was observed between 3 territories of subclinical CVD (cIMT, LVMI, aPWV) and SCORE risk (p<0.0001). There was evidence of subclinical CVD in 60% of subjects with a SCORE value <5. As most subjects with a SCORE value <5 have subclinical CVD abnormalities, a more tailored subclinical CVD primary prevention program should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The mortality risk score and the ADG score: two points-based scoring systems for the Johns Hopkins aggregated diagnosis groups to predict mortality in a general adult population cohort in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Walraven, Carl van

2011-10-01

Logistic regression models that incorporated age, sex, and indicator variables for the Johns Hopkins' Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADGs) categories have been shown to accurately predict all-cause mortality in adults. To develop 2 different point-scoring systems using the ADGs. The Mortality Risk Score (MRS) collapses age, sex, and the ADGs to a single summary score that predicts the annual risk of all-cause death in adults. The ADG Score derives weights for the individual ADG diagnosis groups. : Retrospective cohort constructed using population-based administrative data. All 10,498,413 residents of Ontario, Canada, between the age of 20 and 100 years who were alive on their birthday in 2007, participated in this study. Participants were randomly divided into derivation and validation samples. : Death within 1 year. In the derivation cohort, the MRS ranged from -21 to 139 (median value 29, IQR 17 to 44). In the validation group, a logistic regression model with the MRS as the sole predictor significantly predicted the risk of 1-year mortality with a c-statistic of 0.917. A regression model with age, sex, and the ADG Score has similar performance. Both methods accurately predicted the risk of 1-year mortality across the 20 vigintiles of risk. The MRS combined values for a person's age, sex, and the John Hopkins ADGs to accurately predict 1-year mortality in adults. The ADG Score is a weighted score representing the presence or absence of the 32 ADG diagnosis groups. These scores will facilitate health services researchers conducting risk adjustment using administrative health care databases.

Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease at a North American Center: An Assessment of Baseline z Scores.

PubMed

Son, Mary Beth F; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Kim, Susan; Tang, Alexander; Dedeoglu, Fatma; Fulton, David R; Lo, Mindy S; Baker, Annette L; Sundel, Robert P; Newburger, Jane W

2017-05-31

Accurate risk prediction of coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) in North American children with Kawasaki disease remains a clinical challenge. We sought to determine the predictive utility of baseline coronary dimensions adjusted for body surface area ( z scores) for future CAAs in Kawasaki disease and explored the extent to which addition of established Japanese risk scores to baseline coronary artery z scores improved discrimination for CAA development. We explored the relationships of CAA with baseline z scores; with Kobayashi, Sano, Egami, and Harada risk scores; and with the combination of baseline z scores and risk scores. We defined CAA as a maximum z score (zMax) ≥2.5 of the left anterior descending or right coronary artery at 4 to 8 weeks of illness. Of 261 patients, 77 patients (29%) had a baseline zMax ≥2.0. CAAs occurred in 15 patients (6%). CAAs were strongly associated with baseline zMax ≥2.0 versus <2.0 (12 [16%] versus 3 [2%], respectively, P <0.001). Baseline zMax ≥2.0 had a C statistic of 0.77, good sensitivity (80%), and excellent negative predictive value (98%). None of the risk scores alone had adequate discrimination. When high-risk status per the Japanese risk scores was added to models containing baseline zMax ≥2.0, none were significantly better than baseline zMax ≥2.0 alone. In a North American center, baseline zMax ≥2.0 in children with Kawasaki disease demonstrated high predictive utility for later development of CAA. Future studies should validate the utility of our findings. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Scoring life insurance applicants' laboratory results, blood pressure and build to predict all-cause mortality risk.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2012-01-01

Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements. Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex. The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age. Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.

Measuring coding intensity in the Medicare Advantage program.

PubMed

Kronick, Richard; Welch, W Pete

2014-01-01

In 2004, Medicare implemented a system of paying Medicare Advantage (MA) plans that gave them greater incentive than fee-for-service (FFS) providers to report diagnoses. Risk scores for all Medicare beneficiaries 2004-2013 and Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) data, 2006-2011. Change in average risk score for all enrollees and for stayers (beneficiaries who were in either FFS or MA for two consecutive years). Prevalence rates by Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC). Each year the average MA risk score increased faster than the average FFS score. Using the risk adjustment model in place in 2004, the average MA score as a ratio of the average FFS score would have increased from 90% in 2004 to 109% in 2013. Using the model partially implemented in 2014, the ratio would have increased from 88% to 102%. The increase in relative MA scores appears to largely reflect changes in diagnostic coding, not real increases in the morbidity of MA enrollees. In survey-based data for 2006-2011, the MA-FFS ratio of risk scores remained roughly constant at 96%. Intensity of coding varies widely by contract, with some contracts coding very similarly to FFS and others coding much more intensely than the MA average. Underpinning this relative growth in scores is particularly rapid relative growth in a subset of HCCs. Medicare has taken significant steps to mitigate the effects of coding intensity in MA, including implementing a 3.4% coding intensity adjustment in 2010 and revising the risk adjustment model in 2013 and 2014. Given the continuous relative increase in the average MA risk score, further policy changes will likely be necessary.

The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

PubMed

Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

2016-02-01

Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

Risk scores-the modern Oracle of Delphi?

PubMed

Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P

2017-03-01

Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of Risk Assessment Tool for Inpatient Traumatic Intracranial Hemorrhage after Falls in Acute Care Hospital Setting

PubMed Central

Toyabe, Shin-ichi

2012-01-01

Severe injuries such as intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) are the most serious problem after falls in hospital, but they have not been considered in risk assessment scores for falls. We tried to determine the risk factors for ICH after falls in 20,320 inpatients (696,364 patient-days) aged from 40 to 90 years who were admitted to a tertiary-care university hospital. Possible risk factors including STRATIFY risk score for falls and FRAX™ risk score for fractures were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses. Fallers accounted for 3.2% of the patients, and 5.0% of the fallers suffered major injuries, including peripheral bone fracture (59.6%) and ICH (23.4%). In addition to STRATIFY, FRAX™ was significantly associated not only with bone fractures but also ICH. Concomitant use of risk score for falls and risk score for fractures might be useful for the prediction of major injuries such as ICH after falls. PMID:22980233

Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

PubMed

Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-02-01

Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p < 0.0001). The estimated perioperative risk by each model was used to develop an algorithm to predict long-term death. The hazard ratios for death were 1.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.12) for European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prenatal Exposure to Perfluoroalkyl Substances and Cardiometabolic Risk in Children from the Spanish INMA Birth Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Casas, Maribel; Lopez-Espinosa, Maria-Jose; Ballester, Ferran; Iñiguez, Carmen; Martinez, David; Romaguera, Dora; Fernández-Barrés, Silvia; Santa-Marina, Loreto; Basterretxea, Mikel; Schettgen, Thomas; Valvi, Damaskini; Vioque, Jesus; Sunyer, Jordi; Vrijheid, Martine

2017-01-01

Background: Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) may affect body mass index (BMI) and other components of cardiometabolic (CM) risk during childhood, but evidence is scarce and inconsistent. Objectives: We estimated associations between prenatal PFAS exposures and outcomes relevant to cardiometabolic risk, including a composite CM-risk score. Methods: We measured perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) in maternal plasma (first trimester). We assessed weight gain from birth until 6 mo. At 4 and 7 y, we calculated the age- and sex-specific z-scores for BMI, waist circumference (WC), and blood pressure (BP) (n≈1,000). At age 4, we calculated the age-, sex-, and region-specific z-scores for cholesterol, triglycerides (TGs), high-density (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (n=627). At age 4, we calculated a CM-risk score (n=386) as the sum of the individual age-, sex-, and region-specific z-scores for WC, BP, HDL-C, and TGs. We used the average between the negative of HDL-C z-score and TGs z-score to give similar weight to lipids and the other components in the score. A higher score indicates a higher cardiometabolic risk at age 4. Results: PFOS and PFOA were the most abundant PFAS (geometric mean: 5.80 and 2.32 ng/mL, respectively). In general, prenatal PFAS concentrations were not associated with individual outcomes or the combined CM-risk score. Exceptions were positive associations between prenatal PFHxS and TGs z-score [for a doubling of exposure, β=0.11; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.01, 0.21], and between PFNA and the CM-risk score (β=0.60; 95% CI: 0.04, 1.16). There was not clear or consistent evidence of modification by sex. Conclusions: We observed little or no evidence of associations between low prenatal PFAS exposures and outcomes related to cardiometabolic risk in a cohort of Spanish children followed from birth until 7 y. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1330 PMID:28934720

Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

PubMed

Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

2016-09-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led to a NPV of 96% for high-grade cancer. The risk score, comprising DNA-methylation intensity and traditional clinical risk factors, improved the identification of men with high-grade cancer, with a maximum avoidance of unnecessary repeat biopsies. This risk score resulted in better patient risk stratification and significantly outperformed current risk prediction models such as PCPTRC and PSA. The risk score could help to identify patients with histopathologically negative biopsies harboring high-grade PCa. Prostate 76:1078-1087, 2016. © 2016 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A threshold-free summary index of prediction accuracy for censored time to event data.

PubMed

Yuan, Yan; Zhou, Qian M; Li, Bingying; Cai, Hengrui; Chow, Eric J; Armstrong, Gregory T

2018-05-10

Prediction performance of a risk scoring system needs to be carefully assessed before its adoption in clinical practice. Clinical preventive care often uses risk scores to screen asymptomatic population. The primary clinical interest is to predict the risk of having an event by a prespecified future time t 0 . Accuracy measures such as positive predictive values have been recommended for evaluating the predictive performance. However, for commonly used continuous or ordinal risk score systems, these measures require a subjective cutoff threshold value that dichotomizes the risk scores. The need for a cutoff value created barriers for practitioners and researchers. In this paper, we propose a threshold-free summary index of positive predictive values that accommodates time-dependent event status and competing risks. We develop a nonparametric estimator and provide an inference procedure for comparing this summary measure between 2 risk scores for censored time to event data. We conduct a simulation study to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation and inference procedures. Lastly, we illustrate the use of this measure on a real data example, comparing 2 risk score systems for predicting heart failure in childhood cancer survivors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Diet Quality and Cancer Outcomes in Adults: A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Studies

PubMed Central

Potter, Jennifer; Brown, Leanne; Williams, Rebecca L.; Byles, Julie; Collins, Clare E.

2016-01-01

Dietary patterns influence cancer risk. However, systematic reviews have not evaluated relationships between a priori defined diet quality scores and adult cancer risk and mortality. The aims of this systematic review are to (1) describe diet quality scores used in cohort or cross-sectional research examining cancer outcomes; and (2) describe associations between diet quality scores and cancer risk and mortality. The protocol was registered in Prospero, and a systematic search using six electronic databases was conducted through to December 2014. Records were assessed for inclusion by two independent reviewers, and quality was evaluated using a validated tool. Sixty-four studies met inclusion criteria from which 55 different diet quality scores were identified. Of the 35 studies investigating diet quality and cancer risk, 60% (n = 21) found a positive relationship. Results suggest no relationship between diet quality scores and overall cancer risk. Inverse associations were found for diet quality scores and risk of postmenopausal breast, colorectal, head, and neck cancer. No consistent relationships between diet quality scores and cancer mortality were found. Diet quality appears to be related to site-specific adult cancer risk. The relationship with cancer mortality is less conclusive, suggesting additional factors impact overall cancer survival. Development of a cancer-specific diet quality score for application in prospective epidemiology and in public health is warranted. PMID:27399671

Associations of CAIDE Dementia Risk Score with MRI, PIB-PET measures, and cognition.

PubMed

Stephen, Ruth; Liu, Yawu; Ngandu, Tiia; Rinne, Juha O; Kemppainen, Nina; Parkkola, Riitta; Laatikainen, Tiina; Paajanen, Teemu; Hänninen, Tuomo; Strandberg, Timo; Antikainen, Riitta; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Keinänen Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Vanninen, Ritva; Helisalmi, Seppo; Levälahti, Esko; Kivipelto, Miia; Soininen, Hilkka; Solomon, Alina

2017-01-01

CAIDE Dementia Risk Score is the first validated tool for estimating dementia risk based on a midlife risk profile. This observational study investigated longitudinal associations of CAIDE Dementia Risk Score with brain MRI, amyloid burden evaluated with PIB-PET, and detailed cognition measures. FINGER participants were at-risk elderly without dementia. CAIDE Risk Score was calculated using data from previous national surveys (mean age 52.4 years). In connection to baseline FINGER visit (on average 17.6 years later, mean age 70.1 years), 132 participants underwent MRI scans, and 48 underwent PIB-PET scans. All 1,260 participants were cognitively assessed (Neuropsychological Test Battery, NTB). Neuroimaging assessments included brain cortical thickness and volumes (Freesurfer 5.0.3), visually rated medial temporal atrophy (MTA), white matter lesions (WML), and amyloid accumulation. Higher CAIDE Dementia Risk Score was related to more pronounced deep WML (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05-1.43), lower total gray matter (β-coefficient -0.29, p = 0.001) and hippocampal volume (β-coefficient -0.28, p = 0.003), lower cortical thickness (β-coefficient -0.19, p = 0.042), and poorer cognition (β-coefficients -0.31 for total NTB score, -0.25 for executive functioning, -0.33 for processing speed, and -0.20 for memory, all p < 0.001). Higher CAIDE Dementia Risk Score including APOE genotype was additionally related to more pronounced MTA (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.00-1.30). No associations were found with periventricular WML or amyloid accumulation. The CAIDE Dementia Risk Score was related to indicators of cerebrovascular changes and neurodegeneration on MRI, and cognition. The lack of association with brain amyloid accumulation needs to be verified in studies with larger sample sizes.

Analysis of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System and Caprini Risk Assessment Model in Predicting Venous Thromboembolic Outcomes in Plastic Surgery Patients.

PubMed

Shaikh, Mohammad-Ali; Jeong, Haneol S; Mastro, Andrew; Davis, Kathryn; Lysikowski, Jerzy; Kenkel, Jeffrey M

2016-04-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) can be a fatal outcome of plastic surgery. Risk assessment models attempt to determine a patient's risk, yet few studies have compared different models in plastic surgery patients. The authors investigated preoperative ASA physical status and 2005 Caprini scores to determine which model was more predictive of VTE. A retrospective chart review examined 1801 patients undergoing contouring and reconstructive procedures from January 2008 to January 2012. Patients were grouped into risk tiers for ASA scores (1-2 = low, 3+ = high) with 2 cutoffs for Caprini scores (1-4 = low, 5+ high; 1-5 = low, 6+ = high), then re-stratified into 3 tiers using Caprini score cutoffs (1-4 = low, 5-8 = high, 9+ = highest; 1-5 = low, 6-8 = high, 9+ = highest). Median scores of VTE patients were compared to those without VTE. Odds ratio and chi-squared analyses were performed. Of the 1598 patients included in the study, 1.50% developed VTE. Median ASA scores differed significantly between comparison groups but Caprini scores did not vary regardless of cutoff. When examining the 2-tiered Caprini scores, using low risk = 1-5 showed a significant relationship between risk tier and DVT development (P = 0.0266). The ASA system yielded the highest odds ratio of VTE development between low and high-risk patients. The Caprini model captured more patients with VTE in its high-risk category. Combining the two models for a more heuristic approach to preoperative care may identify patients at higher risk. 4 Risk. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A Survey of Knowledge, Individual Perceived Risk, General Perceived Risk, and Behavioral Intentions Regarding Hepatitis B among Students in the Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014.

PubMed

Karimiankakolaki, Zohreh; Baghianimoghadam, Mohammad Hossein; Gerayllo, Sakineh; Sheikh Samani, Nadia; Hadipour, Hajar

2016-07-01

Hepatitis B is the most common cause of liver disease, and medical students are a risk group for the disease given their future occupations. The aim of the study was to assess of predictors of hepatitis B in the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 300 students from the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University. The students answered questionnaires with items covering demographic characteristics, individual knowledge, public risk perception, perceived personal risk, and behavioral intentions regarding hepatitis B. The data were analyzed with SPSS version 18 software. The mean knowledge score of the students was 4.77 ± 1.71, the mean public risk perception score was 24.22 ± 3.44, the mean perceived personal risk score was 6.51 ± 1.97, and the mean behavioral intention score was 12.06 ± 2.97. There were significant differences in the mean knowledge scores in terms of gender, level of awareness, and level of education. There were also differences in the mean behavioral intention scores in terms of gender and field of study, the mean perceived personal risk scores in terms of level of education and field of study, and the mean public risk perception scores in terms of field of study. According to the results of this study, it is necessary to implement educational intervention in order to allow students to identify risk factors and overcome barriers to understanding the implications of the disease in this context.

A Survey of Knowledge, Individual Perceived Risk, General Perceived Risk, and Behavioral Intentions Regarding Hepatitis B among Students in the Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014

PubMed Central

Karimiankakolaki, Zohreh; Baghianimoghadam, Mohammad Hossein; Gerayllo, Sakineh; Sheikh Samani, Nadia; Hadipour, Hajar

2016-01-01

Background Hepatitis B is the most common cause of liver disease, and medical students are a risk group for the disease given their future occupations. Objectives The aim of the study was to assess of predictors of hepatitis B in the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University in 2014. Materials and Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted with 300 students from the Faculty of nursing, midwifery and health at Shahrekord Islamic Azad University. The students answered questionnaires with items covering demographic characteristics, individual knowledge, public risk perception, perceived personal risk, and behavioral intentions regarding hepatitis B. The data were analyzed with SPSS version 18 software. Results The mean knowledge score of the students was 4.77 ± 1.71, the mean public risk perception score was 24.22 ± 3.44, the mean perceived personal risk score was 6.51 ± 1.97, and the mean behavioral intention score was 12.06 ± 2.97. There were significant differences in the mean knowledge scores in terms of gender, level of awareness, and level of education. There were also differences in the mean behavioral intention scores in terms of gender and field of study, the mean perceived personal risk scores in terms of level of education and field of study, and the mean public risk perception scores in terms of field of study. Conclusions According to the results of this study, it is necessary to implement educational intervention in order to allow students to identify risk factors and overcome barriers to understanding the implications of the disease in this context. PMID:27651804

Principal component analysis of dietary and lifestyle patterns in relation to risk of subtypes of esophageal and gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Silvera, Stephanie A. Navarro; Mayne, Susan T; Risch, Harvey A.; Gammon, Marilie D; Vaughan, Thomas; Chow, Wong-Ho; Dubin, Joel A; Dubrow, Robert; Schoenberg, Janet; Stanford, Janet L; West, A. Brian; Rotterdam, Heidrun; Blot, William J

2011-01-01

Purpose To perform pattern analyses of dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to risk of esophageal and gastric cancers. Methods We evaluated risk factors for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and other gastric cancers (OGA) using data from a population-based case-control study conducted in Connecticut, New Jersey, and western Washington state. Dietary/lifestyle patterns were created using principal component analysis (PCA). Impact of the resultant scores on cancer risk was estimated through logistic regression. Results PCA identified six patterns: meat/nitrite, fruit/vegetable, smoking/alcohol, legume/meat alternate, GERD/BMI, and fish/vitamin C. Risk of each cancer under study increased with rising meat/nitrite score. Risk of EA increased with increasing GERD/BMI score, and risk of ESCC rose with increasing smoking/alcohol score and decreasing GERD/BMI score. Fruit/vegetable scores were inversely associated with EA, ESCC, and GCA. Conclusions PCA may provide a useful approach for summarizing extensive dietary/lifestyle data into fewer interpretable combinations that discriminate between cancer cases and controls. The analyses suggest that meat/nitrite intake is associated with elevated risk of each cancer under study, while fruit/vegetable intake reduces risk of EA, ESCC, and GCA. GERD/obesity were confirmed as risk factors for EA and smoking/alcohol as risk factors for ESCC. PMID:21435900

PAI-1 4G/5G and MTHFR C677T polymorphisms increased the accuracy of two prediction scores for the risk of acute lower extremity deep vein thrombosis.

PubMed

Pop, Tudor Radu; Vesa, Ştefan Cristian; Trifa, Adrian Pavel; Crişan, Sorin; Buzoianu, Anca Dana

2014-01-01

This study investigates the accuracy of two scores in predicting the risk of acute lower extremity deep vein thrombosis. The study included 170 patients [85 (50%) women and 85 (50%) men] who were diagnosed with acute lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) with duplex ultrasonography. Median age was 62 (52.75; 72) years. The control group consisted of 166 subjects [96 (57.8%) women and 70 (42.2%) men], without DVT, matched for age (± one year) to those in the group with DVT. The patients and controls were selected from those admitted to the internal medicine, cardiology and geriatrics wards within the Municipal Hospital of Cluj-Napoca, Romania, between October 2009 and June 2011. Clinical, demographic and lab data were recorded for each patient. For each patient we calculated the prior risk of DVT using two prediction scores: Caprini and Padua. According to the Padua score only 93 (54.7%) patients with DVT had been at high risk of developing DVT, while 48 (28.9%) of controls were at high risk of developing DVT. When Padua score included PAI-1 4G/5G and MTHFR C677T polymorphisms, the sensitivity increased at 71.7%. Using the Caprini score, we determined that 147 (86.4%) patients with DVT had been at high risk of developing DVT, while 103 (62%) controls were at high risk of developing DVT. A Caprini score higher than 5 was the strongest predictor of acute lower extremity DVT risk. The Caprini prediction score was more sensitive than the Padua score in assessing the high risk of DVT in medical patients. PAI-1 4G/5G and MTHFR C677T polymorphisms increased the sensitivity of Padua score.

Complete blood count risk score and its components, including RDW, are associated with mortality in the JUPITER trial.

PubMed

Horne, Benjamin D; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Muhlestein, Joseph B; Ridker, Paul M; Paynter, Nina P

2015-04-01

Previously, we showed that sex-specific complete blood count (CBC) risk scores strongly predicted risk of all-cause mortality in multiple sets of general medical patients. This study evaluated the CBC risk score in an independent, well-studied international primary risk population of lower-risk individuals initially free from cardiovascular (CV) disease. Observational secondary analysis of a randomized trial population. The previously derived and validated CBC score was evaluated for association with all-cause mortality among CV disease-free females (n = 6568) and males (n = 10,629) enrolled for up to 5 years in the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin (JUPITER) trial. Associations of the CBC score with CV mortality and with major CV disease were also tested. The CBC score predicted all-cause mortality, with univariable hazard ratio (HR) 4.83 (95% CI 3.70-6.31) for the third CBC score tertile vs. the first tertile, and HR 2.31 (CI 1.75-3.05) for the second tertile (p trend < 0.001). The CBC score retained significance after adjustment: HR 1.97 (CI 1.46-2.67) and 1.51 (CI 1.13-2.00) for tertiles 3 and 2 vs. 1, respectively (p trend < 0.001). The CBC score also predicted CV mortality (p trend = 0.025) and the primary JUPITER endpoint (p trend = 0.015). c-statistics for mortality were 0.729 among all, and 0.722 and 0.750 for females and males, respectively. The CBC risk score was strongly associated with all-cause mortality among JUPITER trial participants and had good discrimination. It also predicted CV-specific outcomes. This CBC score may be useful in identifying cardiac disease-free individuals at increased risk of mortality. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

A Scoring System to Determine Risk of Delayed Bleeding After Endoscopic Mucosal Resection of Large Colorectal Lesions.

PubMed

Albéniz, Eduardo; Fraile, María; Ibáñez, Berta; Alonso-Aguirre, Pedro; Martínez-Ares, David; Soto, Santiago; Gargallo, Carla Jerusalén; Ramos Zabala, Felipe; Álvarez, Marco Antonio; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Joaquín; Múgica, Fernando; Nogales, Óscar; Herreros de Tejada, Alberto; Redondo, Eduardo; Guarner-Argente, Carlos; Pin, Noel; León-Brito, Helena; Pardeiro, Remedios; López-Roses, Leopoldo; Rodríguez-Téllez, Manuel; Jiménez, Alejandra; Martínez-Alcalá, Felipe; García, Orlando; de la Peña, Joaquín; Ono, Akiko; Alberca de Las Parras, Fernando; Pellisé, María; Rivero, Liseth; Saperas, Esteban; Pérez-Roldán, Francisco; Pueyo Royo, Antonio; Eguaras Ros, Javier; Zúñiga Ripa, Alba; Concepción-Martín, Mar; Huelin-Álvarez, Patricia; Colán-Hernández, Juan; Cubiella, Joaquín; Remedios, David; Bessa I Caserras, Xavier; López-Viedma, Bartolomé; Cobian, Julyssa; González-Haba, Mariano; Santiago, José; Martínez-Cara, Juan Gabriel; Valdivielso, Eduardo

2016-08-01

After endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) of colorectal lesions, delayed bleeding is the most common serious complication, but there are no guidelines for its prevention. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with delayed bleeding that required medical attention after discharge until day 15 and develop a scoring system to identify patients at risk. We performed a prospective study of 1214 consecutive patients with nonpedunculated colorectal lesions 20 mm or larger treated by EMR (n = 1255) at 23 hospitals in Spain, from February 2013 through February 2015. Patients were examined 15 days after the procedure, and medical data were collected. We used the data to create a delayed bleeding scoring system, and assigned a weight to each risk factor based on the β parameter from multivariate logistic regression analysis. Patients were classified as being at low, average, or high risk for delayed bleeding. Delayed bleeding occurred in 46 cases (3.7%, 95% confidence interval, 2.7%-4.9%). In multivariate analysis, factors associated with delayed bleeding included age ≥75 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.36; P < .01), American Society of Anesthesiologist classification scores of III or IV (OR, 1.90; P ≤ .05), aspirin use during EMR (OR, 3.16; P < .05), right-sided lesions (OR, 4.86; P < .01), lesion size ≥40 mm (OR, 1.91; P ≤ .05), and a mucosal gap not closed by hemoclips (OR, 3.63; P ≤ .01). We developed a risk scoring system based on these 6 variables that assigned patients to the low-risk (score, 0-3), average-risk (score, 4-7), or high-risk (score, 8-10) categories with a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.83). In these groups, the probabilities of delayed bleeding were 0.6%, 5.5%, and 40%, respectively. The risk of delayed bleeding after EMR of large colorectal lesions is 3.7%. We developed a risk scoring system based on 6 factors that determined the risk for delayed bleeding (receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.77). The factors most strongly associated with delayed bleeding were right-sided lesions, aspirin use, and mucosal defects not closed by hemoclips. Patients considered to be high risk (score, 8-10) had a 40% probability of delayed bleeding. Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a risk score for geographic atrophy in complications of the age-related macular degeneration prevention trial.

PubMed

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Maguire, Maureen G

2011-02-01

To develop a risk score for developing geographic atrophy (GA) involving easily obtainable information among patients with bilateral large drusen. Cohort study within a multicenter randomized clinical trial. We included 1052 participants with ≥ 10 large (>125 μm) drusen and visual acuity ≥ 20/40 in each eye. In the Complications of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) Prevention Trial (CAPT), 1 eye of each participant was randomly assigned to laser treatment and the contralateral eye was assigned to observation to evaluate whether laser treatment of drusen could prevent vision loss. Gradings by a reading center were used to identify: CAPT end point GA (total area of GA [>250 μm] > 1 disc area), GA (>175 μm) involving the foveal center (CGA), and GA of any size and location (any GA). Established risk factors (age, smoking status, hypertension, Age-related Eye Disease Study simple severity scale score), both with and without a novel risk factor (night vision score), were used in assigning risk points. The risk scores were evaluated for the ability to discriminate and calibrate GA risk. Development of end point GA, CGA, and any GA. Among 942 CAPT participants who completed 5 years of follow-up and did not have any GA at baseline, 6.8% participants developed CAPT end point GA, 9.6% developed CGA, and 34.4% developed any GA. The 5-year incidence of end point GA in 1 or both eyes of a participant increased with the 15-point GA risk score, from 0.6% for <7 points to 15% for ≥ 12 points. The 5-factor risk score predicted development of GA moderately well with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-0.81) for end point GA; 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.80) for CGA, and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.65-0.72) for any GA. Prediction from the risk score without the night vision score had lower AUCs (range, 0.67-0.72). If validated in other patients, the GA risk score will be useful for identifying high-risk patients for clinical trials of prevention of GA and for clinical assessment of GA risk in early AMD patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Retrospective Analysis of Pressure Ulcer Incidence and Modified Braden Scale Score Risk Classifications.

PubMed

Chen, Hong-Lin; Cao, Ying-Juan; Wang, Jing; Huai, Bao-Sha

2015-09-01

The Braden Scale is the most widely used pressure ulcer risk assessment in the world, but the currently used 5 risk classification groups do not accurately discriminate among their risk categories. To optimize risk classification based on Braden Scale scores, a retrospective analysis of all consecutively admitted patients in an acute care facility who were at risk for pressure ulcer development was performed between January 2013 and December 2013. Predicted pressure ulcer incidence first was calculated by logistic regression model based on original Braden score. Risk classification then was modified based on the predicted pressure ulcer incidence and compared between different risk categories in the modified (3-group) classification and the traditional (5-group) classification using chi-square test. Two thousand, six hundred, twenty-five (2,625) patients (mean age 59.8 ± 16.5, range 1 month to 98 years, 1,601 of whom were men) were included in the study; 81 patients (3.1%) developed a pressure ulcer. The predicted pressure ulcer incidence ranged from 0.1% to 49.7%. When the predicted pressure ulcer incidence was greater than 10.0% (high risk), the corresponding Braden scores were less than 11; when the predicted incidence ranged from 1.0% to 10.0% (moderate risk), the corresponding Braden scores ranged from 12 to 16; and when the predicted incidence was less than 1.0% (mild risk), the corresponding Braden scores were greater than 17. In the modified classification, observed pressure ulcer incidence was significantly different between each of the 3 risk categories (P less than 0.05). However, in the traditional classification, the observed incidence was not significantly different between the high-risk category and moderate-risk category (P less than 0.05) and between the mild-risk category and no-risk category (P less than 0.05). If future studies confirm the validity of these findings, pressure ulcer prevention protocols of care based on Braden Scale scores can be simplified.

Defining High Risk Patients for Endovascular Aneurysm Repair: A National Analysis

PubMed Central

Egorova, Natalia; Giacovelli, Jeannine K.; Gelijns, Annetine; Mureebe, Leila; Greco, Giampaolo; Morrissey, Nicholas; Nowygrod, Roman; Moskowitz, Alan; McKinsey, James; Kent, K. Craig

2011-01-01

Background Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is commonly used as a minimally invasive technique for repairing infrarenal aortic aneurysms. There have been recent concerns that a subset of high-risk patients experience unfavorable outcomes with this intervention. To determine whether such a high-risk cohort exists and to identify the characteristics of these patients, we analyzed the outcomes of Medicare patients treated with EVAR from 2000–2006. Methods and Results We identified 66,943 patients who underwent EVAR from Inpatient Medicare database. The overall 30-day mortality was 1.6%. A risk model for perioperative mortality was developed by randomly selecting 44,630 patients; the other 1/3 of the dataset was used to validate the model. The model was deemed reliable (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics was p=0.25 for the development, p=0.24 for the validation model) and accurate (c=0.735 and c=0.731 for the development and the validation model, respectively). In our scoring system, where scores ranged between 1 and 7, the following were identified as significant baseline factors that predict mortality: renal failure with dialysis (score=7), renal failure without dialysis (score=3), clinically significant lower extremity ischemia (score=5), patient age ≥85 (score=3), 75–84 (score=2), 70–74 (score=1), heart failure (score=3), chronic liver disease (score=3), female gender (score=2), neurological disorders (score=2), , chronic pulmonary disease (score=2), surgeon experience in EVAR<3 procedures (score=1) and hospital annual volume in EVAR <7 procedures (score=1). The majority of Medicare patients who were treated (96.6%, n=64,651) had a score of 9 or less, which correlated with a mortality < 5%. Only 3.4% of patients had a mortality ≥ 5% and 0.8% of patients (n=509) had a score of 13 or higher, which correlated with a mortality >10%. Conclusion We conclude that there is a high-risk cohort of patients that should not be treated with EVAR; however, this cohort is small. Our scoring system, which is based on patient and institutional factors, provides criteria that can be easily used by clinicians to quantify perioperative risk for EVAR candidates. PMID:19782526

The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

PubMed

Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

2017-06-01

The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

PubMed Central

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

PubMed

Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

2015-09-01

National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

The Assessment of African Swine Fever Virus Risk to Belgium Early 2014, using the Quick and Semiquantitative Pandora Screening Protocol.

PubMed

Roelandt, S; Van der Stede, Y; D'hondt, B; Koenen, F

2017-02-01

A risk assessment was organized during the early EU ASF outbreaks of early 2014 (February-April) and performed in cooperation with 15 Belgian and European experts on ASFV and its epidemiology in pigs/wild boar. African swine fever (ASF) is considered as one of the most dangerous infectious pig diseases, causing many outbreaks. Since the end of 2013 - early 2014, several outbreaks within the European Union (Lithuania, Poland, Estonia and Latvia) were reported to OIE, which prompted several risk assessments by (inter)national bodies and scientists. In this study, the open source, semiquantitative Pandora risk assessment tool was used for a quick overall screening of the risk posed by ASF to Belgium early 2014. A set of integrated risk scores was calculated within the Pandora framework. Experts scored the questions and uncertainty levels in the Pandora modules individually, after which the calculations were performed and averaged scores were used within pre-defined risk scales to define and visualize the ASF risk to Belgium. Emergence risk was considered low (Pandora score 0.29), while disease consequences were deemed high (0.93); the resulting multiplicative overall risk of ASFV for Belgium was low (0.27). The Belgian experts tended to give lower risk scores than the European experts, especially for entry risk and trade/public opinion consequences. These risk scores are further interpreted with a due consideration of the qualitative data in the expert remarks and of other ASF risk assessments. The results are similar to more extensive and elaborate risk assessment models/procedures which may require more time and resources. The Pandora tool allows sequential updates to monitor (rates of) increasing risk and provides information for risk managers to organize targeted control. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Combined use of aortic dissection detection risk score and D-dimer in the diagnostic workup of suspected acute aortic dissection.

PubMed

Nazerian, Peiman; Morello, Fulvio; Vanni, Simone; Bono, Alessia; Castelli, Matteo; Forno, Daniela; Gigli, Chiara; Soardo, Flavia; Carbone, Federica; Lupia, Enrico; Grifoni, Stefano

2014-07-15

Acute aortic dissection (AD) represents a diagnostic conundrum. Validated algorithms are particularly needed to identify patients where AD could be ruled out without aortic imaging. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of a strategy combining the aortic dissection detection (ADD) risk score with D-dimer, a sensitive biomarker of AD. Patients from two clinical centers with suspected AD were prospectively enrolled in a registry, from January 2008 to March 2013. The ADD risk score was calculated by retrospective blinded chart review. For D-dimer, a cutoff of 500 ng/ml was applied. AD was diagnosed in 233 of 1035 (22.5%) patients. The ADD risk score was 0 in 322 (31.1%), 1 in 508 (49.1%) and >1 in 205 (19.8%) patients. The sensitivity and the failure rate of D-dimer were 100% and 0% in patients with ADD score 0, versus 97.5% (95% CI 91.4-99.6%) and 4.2% (95% CI 0.7-12.5%) in patients with ADD risk score >1. In patients with ADD risk score ≤ 1, the sensitivity and the failure rate of D-dimer were 98.7% (95% CI 95.3-99.8%) and 0.8% (95% CI 0.1-2.6%). The diagnostic efficiency of D-dimer in patients with ADD risk score 0 and ≤ 1 was 8.9% (95% CI 7.2-10.7%) and 23.6% (95% CI 21.1-26.2%) respectively. In a large cohort of patients with suspected AD, the presence of ADD risk score 0 or ≤ 1 combined with a negative D-dimer accurately and efficiently ruled out AD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in Diet Quality Scores and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among US Men and Women

PubMed Central

Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N.; Mattei, Josiemer; Fung, Teresa T.; Li, Yanping; Pan, An; Willett, Walter C.; Rimm, Eric B.; Hu, Frank B.

2015-01-01

Background Adherence to several diet quality scores including the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), Alternative Mediterranean diet score (AMED), and Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH) has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but little is known about how changes in these scores over time influence subsequent CVD risk. Methods and Results We analyzed the association between 4-year changes in three diet quality scores (AHEI, AMED, and DASH) and subsequent CVD risk among 29,343 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and 51,195 women in the Nurses’ Health Study (1986–2010). During 1,394,702 person-years of follow up, we documented 11,793 CVD cases. Compared with participants whose diet quality remained relatively stable in each 4-year period, those with the greatest improvement in diet quality scores had a 7%–8% lower CVD risk in the subsequent 4-year period (pooled hazard ratio, 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87–0.99] for AHEI; 0.93 [95% CI: 0.85–1.02] for AMED; and 0.93 [95% CI: 0.87–0.99] for DASH; all P-trend<0.05). In the long term, increasing the diet scores from baseline to the first 4-year follow up was associated with lower CVD risk during the next 20 years (7% [95% CI: 1% to 12%] for AHEI and 9% [95% CI: 3% to 14%] for AMED). A decrease in diet quality scores was associated with significantly elevated risk of CVD in subsequent time periods. Conclusions Improving adherence to diet quality scores over time is associated with significantly lower CVD risk both in the short term and the long term. PMID:26644246

Preoperative risk factors for conversion from laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy: a validated risk score derived from a prospective U.K. database of 8820 patients.

PubMed

Sutcliffe, Robert P; Hollyman, Marianne; Hodson, James; Bonney, Glenn; Vohra, Ravi S; Griffiths, Ewen A

2016-11-01

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy is commonly performed, and several factors increase the risk of open conversion, prolonging operating time and hospital stay. Preoperative stratification would improve consent, scheduling and identify appropriate training cases. The aim of this study was to develop a validated risk score for conversion for use in clinical practice. Preoperative patient and disease-related variables were identified from a prospective cholecystectomy database (CholeS) of 8820 patients, divided into main and validation sets. Preoperative predictors of conversion were identified by multivariable binary logistic regression. A risk score was developed and validated using a forward stepwise approach. Some 297 procedures (3.4%) were converted. The risk score was derived from six significant predictors: age (p = 0.005), sex (p < 0.001), indication for surgery (p < 0.001), ASA (p < 0.001), thick-walled gallbladder (p = 0.040) and CBD diameter (p = 0.004). Testing the score on the validation set yielded an AUROC = 0.766 (p < 0.001), and a score >6 identified patients at high risk of conversion (7.1% vs. 1.2%). This validated risk score allows preoperative identification of patients at six-fold increased risk of conversion to open cholecystectomy. Copyright © 2016 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Risk of Cognitive Decline in Very Old Adults Using Three Models: The Framingham Stroke Risk Profile; the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia Model; and Oxi-Inflammatory Biomarkers.

PubMed

Harrison, Stephanie L; de Craen, Anton J M; Kerse, Ngaire; Teh, Ruth; Granic, Antoneta; Davies, Karen; Wesnes, Keith A; den Elzen, Wendy P J; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Kirkwood, Thomas B L; Robinson, Louise; Jagger, Carol; Siervo, Mario; Stephan, Blossom C M

2017-02-01

To examine the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP); the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE) risk score, and oxi-inflammatory load (cumulative risk score of three blood biomarkers-homocysteine, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein) for associations with cognitive decline using three cohort studies of very old adults and to examine whether incorporating these biomarkers with the risk scores can affect the association with cognitive decline. Three longitudinal, population-based cohort studies. Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom; Leiden, the Netherlands; and Lakes and Bay of Plenty District Health Board areas, New Zealand. Newcastle 85+ Study participants (n = 616), Leiden 85-plus Study participants (n = 444), and Life and Living in Advanced Age, a Cohort Study in New Zealand (LiLACS NZ Study) participants (n = 396). FSRP, CAIDE risk score, oxi-inflammatory load, FSRP incorporating oxi-inflammatory load, and CAIDE risk score incorporating oxi-inflammatory load. Oxi-inflammatory load could be calculated only in the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Measures of global cognitive function were available for all three data sets. Domain-specific measures were available for the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Meta-analysis of pooled results showed greater risk of incident global cognitive impairment with higher FSRP (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.98), CAIDE (HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.09-2.14), and oxi-inflammatory load (HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.04-2.88) scores. Adding oxi-inflammatory load to the risk scores increased the risk of cognitive impairment for the FSRP (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.17-2.33) and the CAIDE model (HR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.39-2.67). Adding oxi-inflammatory load to cardiovascular risk scores may be useful for determining risk of cognitive impairment in very old adults. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Interrater reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores provided in Canadian criminal proceedings.

PubMed

Edens, John F; Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Cox, Jennifer; Smith, Shannon Toney

2016-12-01

Published research suggests that most violence risk assessment tools have relatively high levels of interrater reliability, but recent evidence of inconsistent scores among forensic examiners in adversarial settings raises concerns about the "field reliability" of such measures. This study specifically examined the reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) scores in Canadian criminal cases identified in the legal database, LexisNexis. Over 250 reported cases were located that made mention of the VRAG, with 42 of these cases containing 2 or more scores that could be submitted to interrater reliability analyses. Overall, scores were skewed toward higher risk categories. The intraclass correlation (ICCA1) was .66, with pairs of forensic examiners placing defendants into the same VRAG risk "bin" in 68% of the cases. For categorical risk statements (i.e., low, moderate, high), examiners provided converging assessment results in most instances (86%). In terms of potential predictors of rater disagreement, there was no evidence for adversarial allegiance in our sample. Rater disagreement in the scoring of 1 VRAG item (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised; Hare, 2003), however, strongly predicted rater disagreement in the scoring of the VRAG (r = .58). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study.

PubMed

Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D; Ross, Michael; Law, Matthew; Reiss, Peter; Kirk, Ole; Smith, Colette; Wentworth, Deborah; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Fux, Christoph A; Moranne, Olivier; Morlat, Phillipe; Johnson, Margaret A; Ryom, Lene

2015-03-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0-4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

PubMed Central

Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D.; Ross, Michael; Law, Matthew; Reiss, Peter; Kirk, Ole; Smith, Colette; Wentworth, Deborah; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Fux, Christoph A.; Moranne, Olivier; Morlat, Phillipe; Johnson, Margaret A.; Ryom, Lene

2015-01-01

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3–9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was −2 (interquartile range –4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0–4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166–3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159–278) and 21 (95% CI 19–23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506–1462), 88 (95% CI 69–121), and 9 (95% CI 8–10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3–12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6–8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD. PMID:25826420

[Determination of prognostic value of the OESIL risk score at 6 months in a Colombian cohort with syncope evaluated in the emergency department; first Latin American experience].

PubMed

Díaz-Tribaldos, Diana Carolina; Mora, Guillermo; Olaya, Alejandro; Marín, Jorge; Sierra Matamoros, Fabio

2017-07-14

To establish the prognostic value, with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the OESIL syncope risk score to predict the presentation of severe outcomes (death, invasive interventions, and readmission) after 6 months of observation in adults who consulted the emergency department due to syncope. Observational, prospective, and multicentre study with enrolment of subjects older than 18 years, who consulted in the emergency department due to syncope. A record was mad of the demographic and clinical information of all patients. The OESIL risk score was calculated, and severe patient outcomes were followed up during a 6 month period using telephone contact. A total of 161 patients met the inclusion criteria and were followed up for 6 months. A score above or equal to 2 in the risk score, classified as high risk, was present in 72% of the patients. The characteristics of the risk score to predict the combined outcome of mortality, invasive interventions, and readmission for a score above or equal to 2 were 75.7, 30.5, 43.1, and 64.4% for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, respectively. A score above or equal to 2 in the OESIL risk score applied in Colombian population was of limited use to predict the studied severe outcomes. This score will be unable to discriminate between patients that benefit of early admission and further clinical studies. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

PubMed

Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

2018-01-01

A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the GRACE Risk score for hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome in the Arab Middle East.

PubMed

Yusufali, Afzalhussein; Zubaid, Mohammad; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim; Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi A; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Al Suwaidi, Jassim; AlMahmeed, Wael; Rashed, Wafa; Sulaiman, Kadhim; Amin, Haitham

2011-07-01

Our objective was to validate the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score for in-hospital mortality in a Middle Eastern acute coronary syndrome (ACS) population enrolled in the Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events (Gulf RACE). Out of 8176, unselected, consecutive patients with ACS, during 6 months in 2006 and 2007 from 63 hospitals in 6 Arab countries in the Middle East Gulf region, 7709 (94.3%) with available data were included. The main outcome measures were discriminatory performance (using C-index) and calibration of the GRACE risk score (in-hospital mortality predicted by GRACE risk score versus the actual mortality). In-hospital mortality in the Gulf RACE was 3.09% (n = 238). The discriminatory performance of the GRACE risk scores in the Gulf RACE was good overall (C-index = 0.86). Observed and predicted risk corresponded well in each stratum of risk of in-hospital mortality. This suggests its suitability for clinical use in this patient population.

Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand Position Statement: Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring.

PubMed

Liew, Gary; Chow, Clara; van Pelt, Niels; Younger, John; Jelinek, Michael; Chan, Jonathan; Hamilton-Craig, Christian

2017-12-01

Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring (CAC) is a non-invasive quantitation of coronary artery calcification using computed tomography (CT). It is a marker of atherosclerotic plaque burden and an independent predictor of future myocardial infarction and mortality. Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring provides incremental risk information beyond traditional risk calculators (eg. Framingham Risk Score). Its use for risk stratification is confined to primary prevention of cardiovascular events, and can be considered as "individualised coronary risk scoring" for those not considered to be of high or low risk. Medical practitioners should carefully counsel patients prior to CAC. Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring should only be undertaken if an alteration in therapy including embarking on pharmacotherapy is being considered based on the test result. Patient Groups to Consider Coronary Calcium Scoring: Patient Groups in Whom Coronary Calcium Scoring Should Not be Considered: Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring is not recommended for patients who are: Interpretation of CAC CAC=0 A zero score confers a very low risk of death, <1% at 10 years. CAC=1-100 Low risk, <10% CAC=101-400 Intermediate risk, 10-20% CAC=101-400 & >75th centile. Moderately high risk, 15-20% CAC >400 High risk, >20% Management Recommendations Based on CAC Optimal diet and lifestyle measures are encouraged in all risk groups and form the basis of primary prevention strategies. Patients with moderately-high or high risk based on CAC score are recommended to receive preventative medical therapy such as aspirin and statins. The evidence for pharmacotherapy is less robust in patients at intermediate levels of CAC 100-400, with modest benefit for aspirin use; though statins may be reasonable if they are above 75th centile. Aspirin and statins are generally not recommended in patients with CAC <100. Repeat CAC Testing In patients with a CAC of 0, a repeat CAC may be considered in 5 years but not sooner. In patients with positive calcium score, routine re-scanning is not currently recommended. However, an annual increase in CAC of >15% or annual increase of CAC >100 units are predictive of future myocardial infarction and mortality. Cost Effectiveness of CAC Based Primary Prevention Recommendations: There is currently no data in Australia and New Zealand that CAC is cost-effective in informing primary prevention decisions. Given the cost of testing is currently borne entirely by the patient, discussion regarding the implications of CAC results should occur before CAC is recommended and undertaken. Copyright © 2017 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel risk score of contrast-induced nephropathy after percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Ji, Ling; Su, XiaoFeng; Qin, Wei; Mi, XuHua; Liu, Fei; Tang, XiaoHong; Li, Zi; Yang, LiChuan

2015-08-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a major cause of acute kidney injury. In this study, we established a comprehensive risk score model to assess risk of CIN after PCI procedure, which could be easily used in a clinical environment. A total of 805 PCI patients, divided into analysis cohort (70%) and validation cohort (30%), were enrolled retrospectively in this study. Risk factors for CIN were identified using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression in the analysis cohort. Risk score model was developed based on multiple regression coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity of the new risk score system was validated in the validation cohort. Comparisons between the new risk score model and previous reported models were applied. The incidence of post-PCI CIN in the analysis cohort (n = 565) was 12%. Considerably high CIN incidence (50%) was observed in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Age >75, body mass index (BMI) >25, myoglobin level, cardiac function level, hypoalbuminaemia, history of chronic kidney disease (CKD), Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) and peripheral vascular disease (PVD) were identified as independent risk factors of post-PCI CIN. A novel risk score model was established using multivariate regression coefficients, which showed highest sensitivity and specificity (0.917, 95%CI 0.877-0.957) compared with previous models. A new post-PCI CIN risk score model was developed based on a retrospective study of 805 patients. Application of this model might be helpful to predict CIN in patients undergoing PCI procedure. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Risk scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Karmali, Kunal N; Persell, Stephen D; Perel, Pablo; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Berendsen, Mark A; Huffman, Mark D

2017-03-14

The current paradigm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) emphasises absolute risk assessment to guide treatment decisions in primary prevention. Although the derivation and validation of multivariable risk assessment tools, or CVD risk scores, have attracted considerable attention, their effect on clinical outcomes is uncertain. To assess the effects of evaluating and providing CVD risk scores in adults without prevalent CVD on cardiovascular outcomes, risk factor levels, preventive medication prescribing, and health behaviours. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library (2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March week 1 2016), Embase (embase.com) (1974 to 15 March 2016), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 15 March 2016). We imposed no language restrictions. We searched clinical trial registers in March 2016 and handsearched reference lists of primary studies to identify additional reports. We included randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing the systematic provision of CVD risk scores by a clinician, healthcare professional, or healthcare system compared with usual care (i.e. no systematic provision of CVD risk scores) in adults without CVD. Three review authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and evaluated study quality. We used the Cochrane 'Risk of bias' tool to assess study limitations. The primary outcomes were: CVD events, change in CVD risk factor levels (total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and multivariable CVD risk), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included: lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication prescribing in higher-risk people. We calculated risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MD) or standardised mean differences (SMD) for continuous data using 95% confidence intervals. We used a fixed-effects model when heterogeneity (I²) was at least 50% and a random-effects model for substantial heterogeneity (I² > 50%). We evaluated the quality of evidence using the GRADE framework. We identified 41 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving 194,035 participants from 6422 reports. We assessed studies as having high or unclear risk of bias across multiple domains. Low-quality evidence evidence suggests that providing CVD risk scores may have little or no effect on CVD events compared with usual care (5.4% versus 5.3%; RR 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95 to 1.08; I² = 25%; 3 trials, N = 99,070). Providing CVD risk scores may reduce CVD risk factor levels by a small amount compared with usual care. Providing CVD risk scores reduced total cholesterol (MD -0.10 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.20 to 0.00; I² = 94%; 12 trials, N = 20,437, low-quality evidence), systolic blood pressure (MD -2.77 mmHg, 95% CI -4.16 to -1.38; I² = 93%; 16 trials, N = 32,954, low-quality evidence), and multivariable CVD risk (SMD -0.21, 95% CI -0.39 to -0.02; I² = 94%; 9 trials, N = 9549, low-quality evidence). Providing CVD risk scores may reduce adverse events compared with usual care, but results were imprecise (1.9% versus 2.7%; RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.04; I² = 0%; 4 trials, N = 4630, low-quality evidence). Compared with usual care, providing CVD risk scores may increase new or intensified lipid-lowering medications (15.7% versus 10.7%; RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.87; I² = 40%; 11 trials, N = 14,175, low-quality evidence) and increase new or increased antihypertensive medications (17.2% versus 11.4%; RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.11; I² = 53%; 8 trials, N = 13,255, low-quality evidence). There is uncertainty whether current strategies for providing CVD risk scores affect CVD events. Providing CVD risk scores may slightly reduce CVD risk factor levels and may increase preventive medication prescribing in higher-risk people without evidence of harm. There were multiple study limitations in the identified studies and substantial heterogeneity in the interventions, outcomes, and analyses, so readers should interpret results with caution. New models for implementing and evaluating CVD risk scores in adequately powered studies are needed to define the role of applying CVD risk scores in primary CVD prevention.

A Study of Risk Factors and T- Score Variability in Romanian Women with Postmenopausal Osteoporosis

PubMed Central

TöRöK-OANCE, Rodica

2013-01-01

Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to analyse the prevalence of postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors and to analyse the T-score variability in spine and hip according to the associated risk factors. Methods This is a retrospective study (2003-2007) including 177 female patients with postmenopausal osteoporosis. The patients were separated in seven groups according to the number of risk factors per case. The T-score was compared between this groups using unpaired t-Student test. Results The most frequent risk factor was early menopause (44.63%), followed by low consumption of dairy products (37.29%), coffee consumption (25.99%), sedentary lifestyle (20.9%), smoking (19.21%), delayed menarche (15.25%), low body mass index (10.71%), nulliparity (7.91%), alcohol consumption (0.56%). The maximum number of risk factors per case was six. The T-score decreased with increasing number of risk factors. T-score differences are statistically significant when comparing cases with 6 risk factors to cases with 5 risk factors (P=0.0315 in spine; P=0.0088 in hip), 4 risk factors (P=0.0076 in spine; P=0.043 in hip), 3 risk factors (P<0.0001 in spine; P=0.0205 in hip), 2 risk factors (P=0.0012 in spine; P<0.0001 in hip), a single risk factor (P<0.001 in spine and hip) and no risk factor (P=0.0075 in spine; P=0.0006 in hip). Conclusion Association of several risk factors leads to decrease of T-score so being able to avoid any such factors may contribute to a better bone mineral density. This could be achieved by the education of female population regarding postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors, followed by adopting an appropriate lifestyle and diet. PMID:26060640

Maximization of the usage of coronary CTA derived plaque information using a machine learning based algorithm to improve risk stratification; insights from the CONFIRM registry.

PubMed

van Rosendael, Alexander R; Maliakal, Gabriel; Kolli, Kranthi K; Beecy, Ashley; Al'Aref, Subhi J; Dwivedi, Aeshita; Singh, Gurpreet; Panday, Mohit; Kumar, Amit; Ma, Xiaoyue; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Andreini, Daniele; Bax, Jeroen J; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo C; DeLago, Augustin; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon A; Maffei, Erica; Marques, Hugo; Pontone, Gianluca; Raff, Gilbert L; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Gransar, Heidi; Lu, Yao; Jones, Erica C; Peña, Jessica M; Lin, Fay Y; Min, James K

Machine learning (ML) is a field in computer science that demonstrated to effectively integrate clinical and imaging data for the creation of prognostic scores. The current study investigated whether a ML score, incorporating only the 16 segment coronary tree information derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), provides enhanced risk stratification compared with current CCTA based risk scores. From the multi-center CONFIRM registry, patients were included with complete CCTA risk score information and ≥3 year follow-up for myocardial infarction and death (primary endpoint). Patients with prior coronary artery disease were excluded. Conventional CCTA risk scores (conventional CCTA approach, segment involvement score, duke prognostic index, segment stenosis score, and the Leaman risk score) and a score created using ML were compared for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Only 16 segment based coronary stenosis (0%, 1-24%, 25-49%, 50-69%, 70-99% and 100%) and composition (calcified, mixed and non-calcified plaque) were provided to the ML model. A boosted ensemble algorithm (extreme gradient boosting; XGBoost) was used and the entire data was randomly split into a training set (80%) and testing set (20%). First, tuned hyperparameters were used to generate a trained model from the training data set (80% of data). Second, the performance of this trained model was independently tested on the unseen test set (20% of data). In total, 8844 patients (mean age 58.0 ± 11.5 years, 57.7% male) were included. During a mean follow-up time of 4.6 ± 1.5 years, 609 events occurred (6.9%). No CAD was observed in 48.7% (3.5% event), non-obstructive CAD in 31.8% (6.8% event), and obstructive CAD in 19.5% (15.6% event). Discrimination of events as expressed by AUC was significantly better for the ML based approach (0.771) vs the other scores (ranging from 0.685 to 0.701), P < 0.001. Net reclassification improvement analysis showed that the improved risk stratification was the result of down-classification of risk among patients that did not experience events (non-events). A risk score created by a ML based algorithm, that utilizes standard 16 coronary segment stenosis and composition information derived from detailed CCTA reading, has greater prognostic accuracy than current CCTA integrated risk scores. These findings indicate that a ML based algorithm can improve the integration of CCTA derived plaque information to improve risk stratification. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Cardiovascular risk estimation in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term: a longitudinal follow-up study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease is associated with major morbidity and mortality in women in the Western world. Prediction of an individual cardiovascular disease risk in young women is difficult. It is known that women with hypertensive pregnancy complications have an increased risk for developing cardiovascular disease in later life and pregnancy might be used as a cardiovascular stress test to identify women who are at high risk for cardiovascular disease. In this study we assess the possibility of long term cardiovascular risk prediction in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term. Methods In a longitudinal follow-up study, between June 2008 and November 2010, 300 women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term (HTP cohort) and 94 women with a history of normotensive pregnancies at term (NTP cohort) were included. From the cardiovascular risk status that was known two years after index pregnancy we calculated individual (extrapolated) 10-and 30-year cardiovascular event risks using four different risk prediction models including the Framingham risk score, the SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score. Continuous data were analyzed using the Student’s T test and Mann–Whitney U test and categorical data by the Chi-squared test. A poisson regression analysis was performed to calculate the incidence risk ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for the different cardiovascular risk estimation categories. Results After a mean follow-up of 2.5 years, HTP women had significantly higher mean (SD) extrapolated 10-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 7.2% (3.7); NTP 4.4% (1.9) (p<.001, IRR 5.8, 95% CI 1.9 to 19)) and 30-year cardiovascular event risks (HTP 11% (7.6); NTP 7.3% (3.5) (p<.001, IRR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6 to 4.5)) as compared to NTP women calculated by the Framingham risk scores. The SCORE score and the Reynolds risk score showed similar significant results. Conclusions Women with a history of gestational hypertension or preeclampsia at term have higher predicted (extrapolated) 10-year and 30-year cardiovascular event risks as compared to women with a history of uncomplicated pregnancies. Further large prospective studies have to evaluate whether hypertensive pregnancy disorders have to be included as an independent variable in cardiovascular risk prediction models for women. PMID:23734952

Use of disease risk scores in pharmacoepidemiologic studies.

PubMed

Arbogast, Patrick G; Ray, Wayne A

2009-02-01

Automated databases are increasingly used in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. These databases include records of prescribed medications and encounters with medical care providers from which one can construct very detailed surrogate measures for both drug exposure and covariates that are potential confounders. Often it is possible to track day-by-day changes in these variables. However, while this information is often critical for study success, its volume can pose challenges for statistical analysis. One common approach is the use of propensity scores. An alternative approach is to construct a disease risk score. This is analogous to the propensity score in that it calculates a summary measure from the covariates. However, the disease risk score estimates the probability or rate of disease occurrence conditional on being unexposed. The association between exposure and disease is then estimated adjusting for the disease risk score in place of the individual covariates. This review describes the use of disease risk scores in pharmacoepidemiologic studies, and includes a brief discussion of their history, a more detailed description of their construction and use, a summary of simulation studies comparing their performance vis-á-vis traditional models, a comparison of their utility with that of propensity scores, and some further topics for future research.

APACHE II score in massive upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage from peptic ulcer: prognostic value and potential clinical applications.

PubMed

Schein, M; Gecelter, G

1989-07-01

This study examined the prognostic value of the APACHE II scoring system in patients undergoing emergency operations for bleeding peptic ulcer. There were 96 operations for gastric ulcers and 58 for duodenal ulcers. The mean scores in survivors and in patients who died were 10.8 and 17.5 respectively. None of the 66 patients with an APACHE II score less than 11 died, while the mortality rate in those scored greater than 10 was 22 per cent. In patients scored greater than 10 non-resective procedures carried less risk of mortality than gastrectomy. The APACHE II score is useful when measuring the severity of the acute disease and predicting the outcome in these patients. If used in daily practice it may assist the surgeon in stratifying patients into a low-risk group (score less than 11) in which major operations are well tolerated and outcome is favourable and a high-risk group (score greater than 10) in which the risk of mortality is high and the performance of procedures of lesser magnitude is probably more likely to improve survival.

An efficient sampling strategy for selection of biobank samples using risk scores.

PubMed

Björk, Jonas; Malmqvist, Ebba; Rylander, Lars; Rignell-Hydbom, Anna

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to suggest a new sample-selection strategy based on risk scores in case-control studies with biobank data. An ongoing Swedish case-control study on fetal exposure to endocrine disruptors and overweight in early childhood was used as the empirical example. Cases were defined as children with a body mass index (BMI) ⩾18 kg/m 2 ( n=545) at four years of age, and controls as children with a BMI of ⩽17 kg/m 2 ( n=4472 available). The risk of being overweight was modelled using logistic regression based on available covariates from the health examination and prior to selecting samples from the biobank. A risk score was estimated for each child and categorised as low (0-5%), medium (6-13%) or high (⩾14%) risk of being overweight. The final risk-score model, with smoking during pregnancy ( p=0.001), birth weight ( p<0.001), BMI of both parents ( p<0.001 for both), type of residence ( p=0.04) and economic situation ( p=0.12), yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 67% ( n=3945 with complete data). The case group ( n=416) had the following risk-score profile: low (12%), medium (46%) and high risk (43%). Twice as many controls were selected from each risk group, with further matching on sex. Computer simulations showed that the proposed selection strategy with stratification on risk scores yielded consistent improvements in statistical precision. Using risk scores based on available survey or register data as a basis for sample selection may improve possibilities to study heterogeneity of exposure effects in biobank-based studies.

The Veterans Affairs Cardiac Risk Score: Recalibrating the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score for Applied Use.

PubMed

Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A

2017-09-01

Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.

Identification of men with low-risk biopsy-confirmed prostate cancer as candidates for active surveillance.

PubMed

Lin, Daniel W; Crawford, E David; Keane, Thomas; Evans, Brent; Reid, Julia; Rajamani, Saradha; Brown, Krystal; Gutin, Alexander; Tward, Jonathan; Scardino, Peter; Brawer, Michael; Stone, Steven; Cuzick, Jack

2018-06-01

A combined clinical cell-cycle risk (CCR) score that incorporates prognostic molecular and clinical information has been recently developed and validated to improve prostate cancer mortality (PCM) risk stratification over clinical features alone. As clinical features are currently used to select men for active surveillance (AS), we developed and validated a CCR score threshold to improve the identification of men with low-risk disease who are appropriate for AS. The score threshold was selected based on the 90th percentile of CCR scores among men who might typically be considered for AS based on NCCN low/favorable-intermediate risk criteria (CCR = 0.8). The threshold was validated using 10-year PCM in an unselected, conservatively managed cohort and in the subset of the same cohort after excluding men with high-risk features. The clinical effect was evaluated in a contemporary clinical cohort. In the unselected validation cohort, men with CCR scores below the threshold had a predicted mean 10-year PCM of 2.7%, and the threshold significantly dichotomized low- and high-risk disease (P = 1.2 × 10 -5 ). After excluding high-risk men from the validation cohort, men with CCR scores below the threshold had a predicted mean 10-year PCM of 2.3%, and the threshold significantly dichotomized low- and high-risk disease (P = 0.020). There were no prostate cancer-specific deaths in men with CCR scores below the threshold in either analysis. The proportion of men in the clinical testing cohort identified as candidates for AS was substantially higher using the threshold (68.8%) compared to clinicopathologic features alone (42.6%), while mean 10-year predicted PCM risks remained essentially identical (1.9% vs. 2.0%, respectively). The CCR score threshold appropriately dichotomized patients into low- and high-risk groups for 10-year PCM, and may enable more appropriate selection of patients for AS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

PubMed Central

Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

2015-01-01

Introduction National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Methods Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Results The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien–Dindo grade 2–3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4–5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Discussion Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. Conclusions In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient. PMID:26468369

A simple risk score for identifying individuals with impaired fasting glucose in the Southern Chinese population.

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-23

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006-2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008-2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008-2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for predicting ischemic stroke among East Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: A systemic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xiong, Qinmei; Chen, Sisi; Senoo, Keitaro; Proietti, Marco; Hong, Kui; Lip, Gregory Y H

2015-09-15

Both the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are well-validated in Western populations for predicting risk of stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). There is some uncertainty as to which risk score is best to guide optimal anticoagulant therapy among Asian populations with AF. A systemic literature search of Cochrane library, Scopus, and PubMed databases was conducted using search terms: atrial fibrillation, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc. Stroke/thromboembolism (TE) outcome events at low, moderate, and high risk groups were compared in relation to both scores. Statistical analyses were performed using Revman 5.3 software. 493 records were retrieved, of which 6 cohort studies focusing on patients from Asian regions were finally appraised and included. Absolute event rates were usually lower when patients were categorized as CHA2DS2-VASc of 0-1, rather than CHADS2 of 0-1, respectively. Meta-analysis revealed that when compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc score, there was a 1.71-fold elevated risk of stroke when patients were stratified as 'low risk' using a CHADS2 score = 0, or a 1.40-fold increase with a CHADS2 score = 1. A 1.19-fold elevated event rate was observed among CHADS2 score ≥ 2 compared to CHA2DS2-VASc, but the total stroke/TE events were numerically higher in patients categorized as CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 2. The CHA2DS2-VASc score is superior to the CHADS2 score in identifying 'low risk' East Asian AF patients. Rather than a categorical approach, Asian guidelines should adopt a 2 step approach, by initially identifying the truly low risk patients, following which effective stroke prevention can be offered to those with ≥ 1 additional stroke risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

PubMed Central

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-01

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice. PMID:25625405

Stroke-Associated Pneumonia Risk Score: Validity in a French Stroke Unit.

PubMed

Cugy, Emmanuelle; Sibon, Igor

2017-01-01

Stroke-associated pneumonia is a leading cause of in-hospital death and post-stroke outcome. Screening patients at high risk is one of the main challenges in acute stroke units. Several screening tests have been developed, but their feasibility and validity still remain unclear. The aim of our study was to evaluate the validity of four risk scores (Pneumonia score, A2DS2, ISAN score, and AIS-APS) in a population of ischemic stroke patients admitted in a French stroke unit. Consecutive ischemic stroke patients admitted to a stroke unit were retrospectively analyzed. Data that allowed to retrospectively calculate the different pneumonia risk scores were recorded. Sensitivity and specificity of each score were assessed for in-hospital stroke-associated pneumonia and mortality. The qualitative and quantitative accuracy and utility of each diagnostic screening test were assessed by measuring the Youden Index and the Clinical Utility Index. Complete data were available for only 1960 patients. Pneumonia was observed in 8.6% of patients. Sensitivity and specificity were, respectively, .583 and .907 for Pneumonia score, .744 and .796 for A2DS2, and .696 and .812 for ISAN score. Data were insufficient to test AIS-APS. Stroke-associated pneumonia risk scores had an excellent negative Clinical Utility Index (.77-.87) to screen for in-hospital risk of pneumonia after acute ischemic stroke. All scores might be useful and applied to screen stroke-associated pneumonia in stroke patients treated in French comprehensive stroke units. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive values of D-dimer assay, GRACE scores and TIMI scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Satilmisoglu, Muhammet Hulusi; Ozyilmaz, Sinem Ozbay; Gul, Mehmet; Ak Yildirim, Hayriye; Kayapinar, Osman; Gokturk, Kadir; Aksu, Huseyin; Erkanli, Korhan; Eksik, Abdurrahman

2017-01-01

Purpose To determine the predictive values of D-dimer assay, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Patients and methods A total of 234 patients (mean age: 57.2±11.7 years, 75.2% were males) hospitalized with NSTEMI were included. Data on D-dimer assay, GRACE and TIMI risk scores were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the risk factors predicting increased mortality. Results Median D-dimer levels were 349.5 (48.0–7,210.0) ng/mL, the average TIMI score was 3.2±1.2 and the GRACE score was 90.4±27.6 with high GRACE scores (>118) in 17.5% of patients. The GRACE score was correlated positively with both the D-dimer assay (r=0.215, P=0.01) and TIMI scores (r=0.504, P=0.000). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that higher creatinine levels (odds ratio =18.465, 95% confidence interval: 1.059–322.084, P=0.046) constituted the only significant predictor of increased mortality risk with no predictive values for age, D-dimer assay, ejection fraction, glucose, hemoglobin A1c, sodium, albumin or total cholesterol levels for mortality. Conclusion Serum creatinine levels constituted the sole independent determinant of mortality risk, with no significant values for D-dimer assay, GRACE or TIMI scores for predicting the risk of mortality in NSTEMI patients. PMID:28408834

Adjusting for Confounding in Early Postlaunch Settings: Going Beyond Logistic Regression Models.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Klungel, Olaf H; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-01-01

Postlaunch data on medical treatments can be analyzed to explore adverse events or relative effectiveness in real-life settings. These analyses are often complicated by the number of potential confounders and the possibility of model misspecification. We conducted a simulation study to compare the performance of logistic regression, propensity score, disease risk score, and stabilized inverse probability weighting methods to adjust for confounding. Model misspecification was induced in the independent derivation dataset. We evaluated performance using relative bias confidence interval coverage of the true effect, among other metrics. At low events per coefficient (1.0 and 0.5), the logistic regression estimates had a large relative bias (greater than -100%). Bias of the disease risk score estimates was at most 13.48% and 18.83%. For the propensity score model, this was 8.74% and >100%, respectively. At events per coefficient of 1.0 and 0.5, inverse probability weighting frequently failed or reduced to a crude regression, resulting in biases of -8.49% and 24.55%. Coverage of logistic regression estimates became less than the nominal level at events per coefficient ≤5. For the disease risk score, inverse probability weighting, and propensity score, coverage became less than nominal at events per coefficient ≤2.5, ≤1.0, and ≤1.0, respectively. Bias of misspecified disease risk score models was 16.55%. In settings with low events/exposed subjects per coefficient, disease risk score methods can be useful alternatives to logistic regression models, especially when propensity score models cannot be used. Despite better performance of disease risk score methods than logistic regression and propensity score models in small events per coefficient settings, bias, and coverage still deviated from nominal.

Individualizing Risk of Multidrug-Resistant Pathogens in Community-Onset Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Falcone, Marco; Russo, Alessandro; Giannella, Maddalena; Cangemi, Roberto; Scarpellini, Maria Gabriella; Bertazzoni, Giuliano; Alarcón, José Martínez; Taliani, Gloria; Palange, Paolo; Farcomeni, Alessio; Vestri, Annarita; Bouza, Emilio; Violi, Francesco; Venditti, Mario

2015-01-01

Introduction The diffusion of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria has created the need to identify risk factors for acquiring resistant pathogens in patients living in the community. Objective To analyze clinical features of patients with community-onset pneumonia due to MDR pathogens, to evaluate performance of existing scoring tools and to develop a bedside risk score for an early identification of these patients in the Emergency Department. Patients and Methods This was an open, observational, prospective study of consecutive patients with pneumonia, coming from the community, from January 2011 to January 2013. The new score was validated on an external cohort of 929 patients with pneumonia admitted in internal medicine departments participating at a multicenter prospective study in Spain. Results A total of 900 patients were included in the study. The final logistic regression model consisted of four variables: 1) one risk factor for HCAP, 2) bilateral pulmonary infiltration, 3) the presence of pleural effusion, and 4) the severity of respiratory impairment calculated by use of PaO2/FiO2 ratio. A new risk score, the ARUC score, was developed; compared to Aliberti, Shorr, and Shindo scores, this point score system has a good discrimination performance (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.82) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow, χ2 = 7.64; p = 0.469). The new score outperformed HCAP definition in predicting etiology due to MDR organism. The performance of this bedside score was confirmed in the validation cohort (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60-0.77). Conclusion Physicians working in ED should adopt simple risk scores, like ARUC score, to select the most appropriate antibiotic regimens. This individualized approach may help clinicians to identify those patients who need an empirical broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy. PMID:25860142

Bleeding Risk and Antithrombotic Strategy in Patients with Sinus Rhythm Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction Treated with Warfarin or Aspirin

PubMed Central

Ye, Siqin; Cheng, Bin; Lip, Gregory Y. H.; Buchsbaum, Richard; Sacco, Ralph L.; Levin, Bruce; Di Tullio, Marco R.; Qian, Min; Mann, Douglas L.; Pullicino, Patrick M.; Freudenberger, Ronald S.; Teerlink, John R.; Mohr, J.P.; Graham, Susan; Labovitz, Arthur J.; Estol, Conrado J.; Lok, Dirk J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Anker, Stefan D.; Thompson, John L.P.; Homma, Shunichi

2015-01-01

We sought to assess the performance of existing bleeding risk scores, such as HAS-BLED or OBRI, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in sinus rhythm (SR) treated with warfarin or aspirin. We calculated HAS-BLED and OBRI risk scores for 2,305 patients with HFrEF in SR enrolled in the Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction (WARCEF) trial. Proportional hazards models were used to test whether each score predicted major bleeding, and comparison of different risk scores was performed using Harell’s c-statistic and net-reclassification improvement (NRI) index. For the warfarin arm, both scores predicted bleeding risk, with OBRI having significantly higher c-statistic (0.72 vs 0.61; p=0.03) compared to HAS-BLED, though the NRI for comparing OBRI to HAS-BLED was not significant (0.32, 95% CI - 0.18-0.37). Performance of the OBRI and HAS-BLED risk scores were similar for the aspirin arm. For participants with OBRI score of 0 to 1, warfarin compared with aspirin reduced ischemic stroke (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.26-0.98, p=0.042) without significantly increasing major bleeding (HR 1.24, 95% CI 0.66-2.30, p=0.51). For those with OBRI score of ≥2, there was a trend for reduced ischemic stroke with warfarin compared to aspirin (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.27-1.15, p=0.12), but major bleeding was increased (HR 4.04, 95% CI 1.99-8.22, p<0.001). In conclusion, existing bleeding risk scores can identify bleeding risk in HFrEF patients in SR, and could be tested for potentially identifying patients with a favorable risk / benefit profile for antithrombotic therapy with warfarin. PMID:26189039

Is quality of life different between diabetic and non-diabetic people? The importance of cardiovascular risks

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Sánchez, B.; Mata-Cases, M.; Rodríguez-Mañas, L.; Capel, M.; Oliva-Moreno, J.

2017-01-01

Background To analyse and compare the impact of cardiovascular risk factors and disease on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in people with and without diabetes living in the community. Methods We used data of 1,905 people with diabetes and 19,031 people without diabetes from the last Spanish National Health Survey (years 2011–2012). The HRQoL instrument used was the EuroQol 5D-5L, based on time trade-off scores. Matching methods were used to assess any differences in the HRQoL in people with and without diabetes with the same characteristics (age, gender, education level, and healthy lifestyle), according to cardiovascular risk factors and diseases. Disparities were also analysed for every dimension of HRQoL: mobility, daily activities, personal care, pain/discomfort, and anxiety/depression. Results There were no significant differences in time trade-off scores between people with and without diabetes when cardiovascular risk factors or established cardiovascular disease were not present. However, when cardiovascular risk factors were present, the HRQoL score was significantly lower in people with diabetes than in those without. This difference was indeed greater when cardiovascular diseases were present. More precisely, people with diabetes and any of the cardiovascular risk factors, who have not yet developed any cardiovascular disease, report lower HRQoL, 0.046 TTO score points over 1 (7.93 over 100 in the VAS score) compared to those without diabetes, and 0.14 TTO score points of difference (14.61 over 100 in the VAS score) if cardiovascular diseases were present. In fact, when the three risk factors were present in people with diabetes, HRQoL was significantly lower (0.10 TTO score points over 1 and 10.86 points over 100 in VAS score), obesity being the most influential risk factor. Conclusions The presence of established cardiovascular disease and/or cardiovascular risk factors, specially obesity, account for impaired quality of life in people with diabetes. PMID:29240836

The Introduction of Adult Appendicitis Score Reduced Negative Appendectomy Rate.

PubMed

Sammalkorpi, H E; Mentula, P; Savolainen, H; Leppäniemi, A

2017-09-01

Implementation of a clinical risk score into diagnostics of acute appendicitis may provide accurate diagnosis with selective use of imaging studies. The aim of this study was to prospectively validate recently described diagnostic scoring system, Adult Appendicitis Score, and evaluate its effects on negative appendectomy rate. Adult Appendicitis Score stratifies patients into three groups: high, intermediate, and low risk of appendicitis. The score was implemented in diagnostics of adult patients suspected of acute appendicitis in two university hospitals. We analyzed the effects of Adult Appendicitis Score on diagnostic accuracy, imaging studies, and treatment. The study population was compared with a reference population of 829 patients suspected of acute appendicitis originally enrolled for the study of construction of the Adult Appendicitis Score. This study enrolled 908 patients of whom 432 (48%) had appendicitis. The score stratified 49% of all appendicitis patients into high-risk group with specificity of 93.3%. In the low-risk group, prevalence of appendicitis was 7%. The histologically confirmed negative appendectomy rate decreased from 18.2% to 8.7%, p<0.001, compared to the original dataset. Adult Appendicitis Score is a reliable tool for stratification of patients into selective imaging, which results in low negative appendectomy rate.

External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p<0.001)/GBS = 0.810 (CI: 0.744-0.877; p->0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; p<0.001)], whereas only CRS achieved significance in identifying re-bleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

The SAFARI Score to Assess the Risk of Convulsive Seizure During Admission for Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Jaja, Blessing N R; Schweizer, Tom A; Claassen, Jan; Le Roux, Peter; Mayer, Stephan A; Macdonald, R Loch

2018-06-01

Seizure is a significant complication in patients under acute admission for aneurysmal SAH and could result in poor outcomes. Treatment strategies to optimize management will benefit from methods to better identify at-risk patients. To develop and validate a risk score for convulsive seizure during acute admission for SAH. A risk score was developed in 1500 patients from a single tertiary hospital and externally validated in 852 patients. Candidate predictors were identified by systematic review of the literature and were included in a backward stepwise logistic regression model with in-hospital seizure as a dependent variable. The risk score was assessed for discrimination using the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) and for calibration using a goodness-of-fit test. The SAFARI score, based on 4 items (age ≥ 60 yr, seizure occurrence before hospitalization, ruptured aneurysm in the anterior circulation, and hydrocephalus requiring cerebrospinal fluid diversion), had AUC = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-0.82 in the development cohort. The validation cohort had AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.73. A calibrated increase in the risk of seizure was noted with increasing SAFARI score points. The SAFARI score is a simple tool that adequately stratified SAH patients according to their risk for seizure using a few readily derived predictor items. It may contribute to a more individualized management of seizure following SAH.

Continuous metabolic syndrome risk score, body mass index percentile, and leisure time physical activity in American children.

PubMed

Okosun, Ike S; Boltri, John M; Lyn, Rodney; Davis-Smith, Monique

2010-08-01

The objective of this study was to determine independent and joint association of body mass index (BMI) percentile and leisure time physical activity (LTPA) with continuous metabolic syndrome (cMetS) risk score in 12- to 17-year-old American children. The 2003 to 2004 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data were used for this investigation. LTPA was determined by self-report. cMetS risk score was calculated using standardized residuals of arterial blood pressure, triglycerides, glucose, waist circumference, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate association of BMI percentile and LTPA with cMetS risk score, adjusting for confounders. Increased BMI percentile and LTPA were each associated with increased and decreased cMetS risk score, respectively ((P<.01). There was a gradient of increasing cMetS risk score by BMI percentile cutpoints, from healthy weight (-0.77) to overweight (3.43) and obesity (6.40) ((P<.05). A gradient of decreasing cMetS risk score from sedentary (0.88) to moderate (0.17) and vigorous (-0.42) LTPA levels was also observed (P<.01). The result of this study suggests that promoting LTPA at all levels of weight status may help to reverse the increasing trends of metabolic syndrome in US children. (c) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Alcohol and cancer: risk perception and risk denial beliefs among the French general population.

PubMed

Bocquier, Aurélie; Fressard, Lisa; Verger, Pierre; Legleye, Stéphane; Peretti-Watel, Patrick

2017-08-01

Worldwide, millions of deaths each year are attributed to alcohol. We sought to examine French people's beliefs about the risks of alcohol, their correlates, and their associations with alcohol use. Data came from the 2010 Baromètre Cancer survey, a random cross-sectional telephone survey of the French general population (n = 3359 individuals aged 15-75 years). Using principal component analysis of seven beliefs about alcohol risks, we built two scores (one assessing risk denial based on self-confidence and the other risk relativization). Two multiple linear regressions explored these scores' socio-demographic and perceived information level correlates. Multiple logistic regressions tested the associations of these scores with daily drinking and with heavy episodic drinking (HED). About 60% of the respondents acknowledged that alcohol increases the risk of cancer, and 89% felt well-informed about the risks of alcohol. Beliefs that may promote risk denial were frequent (e.g. 72% agreed that soda and hamburgers are as bad as alcohol for your health). Both risk denial and risk relativization scores were higher among men, older respondents and those of low socioeconomic status. The probability of daily drinking increased with the risk relativization score and that of HED with both scores. Beliefs that can help people to deny the cancer risks due to alcohol use are common in France and may exist in many other countries where alcoholic beverages have been an integral part of the culture. These results can be used to redesign public information campaigns about the risks of alcohol. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Association of Apgar scores with death and neurologic disability

PubMed Central

Ehrenstein, Vera

2009-01-01

Apgar score was devised with the aim to standardize the assessment of newborns. It has been used worldwide to evaluate infants’ condition immediately after birth, to determine their need for resuscitation, and to evaluate the effectiveness of resuscitation. Apgar score was never intended for prediction of outcome beyond the immediate postnatal period; however, since low scores correlate with prenatal and perinatal adversities, multiple studies have examined the relation between the value of Apgar score and duration of low (<7) Apgar score and subsequent death or neurologic disability. This article reviews such studies. The author concludes that the overall evidence shows consistent association of low Apgar scores with increased risks of neonatal and infant death and with neurologic disability, including cerebral palsy, epilepsy, and cognitive impairment. Dose-response patterns have been shown for the value of Apgar score and duration of low score and the outcomes of mortality and neurologic disability. The association of Apgar score <7 at five minutes with increased risks of neurologic disability seems to persist many years postnatally. Some corresponding relative risk estimates are large (eg, four to seven for epilepsy or more than 20 for cerebral palsy), while others are modest (eg, 1.33 for impaired cognitive function). The absolute risks, however, are low (<5% in for most neurologic conditions), and majority of surviving babies with low Apgar scores grow up without disability. The low magnitude of absolute risks makes Apgar score a poor clinical predictor of long-term outcome. Nevertheless, the observed associations point to the importance of fetal and perinatal periods for neurodevelopment. PMID:20865086

Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Lip, Gregory Y H; Hansen, Morten Lock; Hansen, Peter Riis; Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Ahlehoff, Ole; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2011-01-31

To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (CHA(2)DS(2)-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Registry based cohort study. Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Stroke and thromboembolism. Of 121,280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73,538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at "low risk" (score = 0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS(2) and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc at one year's follow-up. In patients at "intermediate risk" (score = 1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS(2) and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years' follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS(2) and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc performed better than CHADS(2) in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism.

A risk score for predicting near-term incidence of hypertension: the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Parikh, Nisha I; Pencina, Michael J; Wang, Thomas J; Benjamin, Emelia J; Lanier, Katherine J; Levy, Daniel; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Kannel, William B; Vasan, Ramachandran S

2008-01-15

Studies suggest that targeting high-risk, nonhypertensive individuals for treatment may delay hypertension onset, thereby possibly mitigating vascular complications. Risk stratification may facilitate cost-effective approaches to management. To develop a simple risk score for predicting hypertension incidence by using measures readily obtained in the physician's office. Longitudinal cohort study. Framingham Heart Study, Framingham, Massachusetts. 1717 nonhypertensive white individuals 20 to 69 years of age (mean age, 42 years; 54% women), without diabetes and with both parents in the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study, contributed 5814 person-examinations. Scores were developed for predicting the 1-, 2-, and 4-year risk for new-onset hypertension, and performance characteristics of the prediction algorithm were assessed by using calibration and discrimination measures. Parental hypertension was ascertained from examinations of the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study. During follow-up (median time over all person-examinations, 3.8 years), 796 persons (52% women) developed new-onset hypertension. In multivariable analyses, age, sex, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, parental hypertension, and cigarette smoking were significant predictors of hypertension. According to the risk score based on these factors, the 4-year risk for incident hypertension was classified as low (<5%) in 34% of participants, medium (5% to 10%) in 19%, and high (>10%) in 47%. The c-statistic for the prediction model was 0.788, and calibration was very good. The risk score findings may not be generalizable to persons of nonwhite race or ethnicity or to persons with diabetes. The risk score algorithm has not been validated in an independent cohort and is based on single measurements of risk factors and blood pressure. The hypertension risk prediction score can be used to estimate an individual's absolute risk for hypertension on short-term follow-up, and it represents a simple, office-based tool that may facilitate management of high-risk individuals with prehypertension.

Aortic pulse wave velocity and HeartSCORE: improving cardiovascular risk stratification. a sub-analysis of the EDIVA (Estudo de DIstensibilidade VAscular) project.

PubMed

Pereira, T; Maldonado, J; Polónia, J; Silva, J A; Morais, J; Rodrigues, T; Marques, M

2014-04-01

HeartSCORE is a tool for assessing cardiovascular risk, basing its estimates on the relative weight of conventional cardiovascular risk factors. However, new markers of cardiovascular risk have been identified, such as aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV). The purpose of this study was to evaluate to what extent the incorporation of PWV in HeartSCORE increases its discriminative power of major cardiovascular events (MACE). This study is a sub-analysis of the EDIVA project, which is a prospective cohort, multicenter and observational study involving 2200 individuals of Portuguese nationality (1290 men and 910 women) aged between 18 and 91 years (mean 46.33 ± 13.76 years), with annual measurements of PWV (Complior). Only participants above 35 years old were included in the present re-analysis, resulting in a population of 1709 participants. All MACE - death, cerebrovascular accident, coronary accidents (coronary heart disease), peripheral arterial disease and renal failure - were recorded. During a mean follow-up period of 21.42 ± 10.76 months, there were 47 non-fatal MACE (2.1% of the sample). Cardiovascular risk was estimated in all patients based on the HeartSCORE risk factors. For the analysis, the refitted HeartSCORE and PWV were divided into three risk categories. The event-free survival at 2 years was 98.6%, 98.0% and 96.1%, respectively in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk categories of HeartSCORE (log-rank p < 0.001). The multi-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per 1 - standard deviation (SD) of MACE was 1.86 (95% CI 1.37-2.53, p < 0.001) for PWV. The risk of MACE by tertiles of PWV and risk categories of the HeartSCORE increased linearly, and the risk was particularly more pronounced in the highest tertile of PWV for any category of the HeartSCORE, demonstrating an improvement in the prediction of cardiovascular risk. It was clearly depicted a high discriminative capacity of PWV even in groups of apparent intermediate cardiovascular risk. Measures of model fit, discrimination and calibration revealed an improvement in risk classification when PWV was added to the risk-factor model. The C statistics improved from 0.69 to 0.78 (adding PWV, p = 0.005). The net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were also determined, and indicated further evidence of improvements in discrimination of the outcome when including PWV in the risk-factor model (NRI = 0.265; IDI = 0.012). The results clearly illustrate the benefits of integrating PWV in the risk assessment strategies, as advocated by HeartSCORE, insofar as it contributes to a better discriminative capacity of global cardiovascular risk, particularly in individuals with low or moderate cardiovascular risk.

A novel risk score model for prediction of contrast-induced nephropathy after emergent percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Lin, Kai-Yang; Zheng, Wei-Ping; Bei, Wei-Jie; Chen, Shi-Qun; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Liu, Yong; Xue, Lin; Tan, Ning; Chen, Ji-Yan

2017-03-01

A few studies developed simple risk model for predicting CIN with poor prognosis after emergent PCI. The study aimed to develop and validate a novel tool for predicting the risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) in patients undergoing emergent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). 692 consecutive patients undergoing emergent PCI between January 2010 and December 2013 were randomly (2:1) assigned to a development dataset (n=461) and a validation dataset (n=231). Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify independent predictors of CIN, and established CIN predicting model, whose prognostic accuracy was assessed using the c-statistic for discrimination and the Hosmere Lemeshow test for calibration. The overall incidence of CIN was 55(7.9%). A total of 11 variables were analyzed, including age >75years old, baseline serum creatinine (SCr)>1.5mg/dl, hypotension and the use of intra-aortic balloon pump(IABP), which were identified to enter risk score model (Chen). The incidence of CIN was 32(6.9%) in the development dataset (in low risk (score=0), 1.0%, moderate risk (score:1-2), 13.4%, high risk (score≥3), 90.0%). Compared to the classical Mehran's and ACEF CIN risk score models, the risk score (Chen) across the subgroup of the study population exhibited similar discrimination and predictive ability on CIN (c-statistic:0.828, 0.776, 0.853, respectively), in-hospital mortality, 2, 3-years mortality (c-statistic:0.738.0.750, 0.845, respectively) in the validation population. Our data showed that this simple risk model exhibited good discrimination and predictive ability on CIN, similar to Mehran's and ACEF score, and even on long-term mortality after emergent PCI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

PubMed

Adkin, A; Brouwer, A; Simons, R R L; Smith, R P; Arnold, M E; Broughan, J; Kosmider, R; Downs, S H

2016-01-01

Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Markov model of the cost-effectiveness of pharmacist care for diabetes in prevention of cardiovascular diseases: evidence from Kaiser Permanente Northern California.

PubMed

Yu, Junhua; Shah, Bijal M; Ip, Eric J; Chan, James

2013-03-01

It has been demonstrated in previous studies that pharmacist management of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the outpatient setting not only improves diabetes-related clinical outcomes such as hemoglobin A1c but also blood pressure (BP), total cholesterol (TC), and quality of life. Improved control of BP and TC has been shown to reduce the risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which has placed a heavy economic burden on the health care system. However, no study has evaluated the cost-effectiveness of pharmacist intervention programs with respect to the long-term preventive effects on CVD outcomes among T2DM patients. To (a) quantify the long-term preventive effects of pharmacist intervention on CVD outcomes among T2DM patients using evidence from a matched cohort study in the outpatient primary care setting and (b) assess the relative cost-effectiveness of adding a clinical pharmacist to the primary care team for the management of patients with T2DM based on improvement in CVD risks with the aid of an economic model. Clinical data between the periods of June 2007 to February 2010 were collected from electronic medical records at 2 separate clinics at Kaiser Permanente (KP) Northern California, 1 with primary care physicians only (control group) and the other with the addition of a pharmacist (enhanced care group). Patients in the enhanced care group were matched 1:1 with patients in the control group according to baseline characteristics that included age, gender, A1c, and Charlson comorbidity score. The estimated 10-year CVD risk for both groups was calculated by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine (version 2) based on age, sex, race, smoking status, atrial fibrillation, duration of diabetes, levels of A1c, systolic BP (SBP) and TC, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) observed at 12 months. There was no statistical difference in the baseline clinical inputs to the Risk Engine (A1c [P=0.115], SBP [P=0.184], TC [P=0.055], and HDL-C [P=0.475]) between the 2 groups. A Markov model was developed to simulate the estimated CVD outcomes over 10 years and to estimate cost-effectiveness. The final outcomes examined included incremental cost and effectiveness measured by life years and per quality-adjusted life year gained. Both deterministic sensitivity analysis (SA) and probabilistic SA were conducted to examine the robustness of the results. The estimated risks for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke (both nonfatal and fatal) at the end of the follow-up were consistently lower in the enhanced care group compared with the control group, even though baseline risks in both groups were similar. The absolute risk reduction (ARR) between the enhanced care and control groups increased over time. For example, the ARR for nonfatal CHD risk in year 1 was 0.5% (1.2% vs. 0.7%), whereas the ARR increased to 5.5% in year 10 (14.8% vs. 9.3%). Similarly, the ARR between the enhanced care and the control groups was calculated as 0.3% for fatal CHD in year 1 and increased to 4.6% in year 10. Results from the Markov model suggest that the enhanced care group was shown to be a dominant strategy (less expensive and more effective) compared with the control group in the 10-year evaluation period in the base-case (average or mean results) scenario. Sensitivity analysis that took into account the uncertainty in all important variables, such as wage of pharmacists, utility weight (the degree of preference individuals have for a particular health state or condition), response rate to pharmacists' care, and uncertainty associated with the estimated 10 years of CVD risk, revealed that the relative value of enhanced care was robust to most of the variations in these parameters. Notably, the level of cost-effectiveness measured by net monetary value depends on the time horizon adopted by the payers and the magnitude of CVD risk reduction. The enhanced care group has a higher chance of being considered as a cost-effective strategy when a longer time horizon such as a minimum of 4 to 5 years is adopted. Adding pharmacists to the health care management team for diabetic patients improves the long-term CVD risks. The longer-term CVD risk reductions were shown to be more dramatic than the short-term reduction. A longer time horizon adopted by health plans in managing T2DM patients has a higher probability of making the intervention cost-effective.

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores.

PubMed

Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond; Schrimpf, Paul

2016-04-01

"Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of "perfect" risk scoring under a given contract.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly adults using SCORE OP model in a Latin American population: The experience from Ecuador.

PubMed

Sisa, Ivan

2018-02-09

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is predicted to increase in Latin America countries due to their rapidly aging population. However, there is very little information about CVD risk assessment as a primary preventive measure in this high-risk population. We predicted the national risk of developing CVD in Ecuadorian elderly population using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation in Older Persons (SCORE OP) High and Low models by risk categories/CVD risk region in 2009. Data on national cardiovascular risk factors were obtained from the Encuesta sobre Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento. We computed the predicted 5-year risk of CVD risk and compared the extent of agreement and reclassification in stratifying high-risk individuals between SCORE OP High and Low models. Analyses were done by risk categories, CVD risk region, and sex. In 2009, based on SCORE OP Low model almost 42% of elderly adults living in Ecuador were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period. The extent of agreement between SCORE OP High and Low risk prediction models was moderate (Cohen's kappa test of 0.5), 34% of individuals approximately were reclassified into different risk categories and a third of the population would benefit from a pharmacologic intervention to reduce the CVD risk. Forty-two percent of elderly Ecuadorians were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period, indicating an urgent need to tailor primary preventive measures for this vulnerable and high-risk population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Prediction of fetal compromise in labor.

PubMed

Prior, Tomas; Mullins, Edward; Bennett, Phillip; Kumar, Sailesh

2014-06-01

The majority of intrapartum fetal hypoxia occurs in uncomplicated pregnancies. Current intrapartum monitoring techniques have not resulted in a reduction in the incidence of cerebral palsy in term neonates. We report the development of a composite risk score to allow risk stratification of normal pregnancies before labor. Six hundred one women were recruited to this prospective observational study. All women underwent an ultrasound examination before active labor, during which fetal biometry and fetal Doppler flow resistance indices were measured. A composite risk score, amalgamating data from the umbilical artery, middle cerebral artery, and umbilical vein, was then developed and correlated with intrapartum outcomes. In cases with the highest composite risk scores, the incidence of fetal compromise (the primary outcome) was 80.0% compared with just 15.3% in cases with the lowest risk scores (relative risk 5.2, 95% confidence interval 2.7-10.1). These cases were also at increased risk of cesarean delivery (53.3% compared with 3.4%, P<.001) and of developing a fetal heart rate pattern considered pathologic by National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence criteria (P=.003). No significant variation in Apgar scores or umbilical artery pH was observed. Intrapartum fetal compromise remains a significant global health issue. The composite risk score reported here can identify fetuses at both high risk and low risk of a subsequent diagnosis of intrapartum fetal compromise. This may enable more judicious use of current intrapartum fetal monitoring techniques, which are hampered by low specificity. II.

Risk score for identifying adults with CSF pleocytosis and negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause.

PubMed

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-08-01

We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n = 193) and a retrospective validation (n = 567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high (≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95% CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95% CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Copyright © 2013 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RISK SCORE FOR IDENTIFYING ADULTS WITH CSF PLEOCYTOSIS AND NEGATIVE CSF GRAM STAIN AT LOW RISK FOR AN URGENT TREATABLE CAUSE

PubMed Central

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-01-01

Background We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Methods Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n=193) and a retrospective validation (n=567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high ( ≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. Findings A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95%CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95%CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. Interpretation The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. PMID:23619080

Comparative Evaluation of Four Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter-defibrillator for Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; Abu Assi, Emad; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Díaz-Infante, Ernesto; García-Bolao, Ignacio; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Andrés Lahuerta, Ana; Expósito-García, Víctor; Bertomeu-González, Vicente; Arce-León, Álvaro; Barrio-López, María Teresa; Peinado, Rafael; Martínez-Sande, Luis; Arias, Miguel A

2016-11-01

Several clinical risk scores have been developed to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality despite implantation of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. We aimed to examine and compare the predictive capacity of 4 simple scoring systems (MADIT-II, FADES, PACE and SHOCKED) for predicting mortality after defibrillator implantation for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in a Mediterranean country. A multicenter retrospective study was performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutive patients referred for defibrillator implantation between January 2010 and December 2011 were included. A total of 916 patients with ischemic and nonischemic heart disease were included (mean age, 62 ± 11 years, 81.4% male). Over 33.4 ± 12.9 months, 113 (12.3%) patients died (cardiovascular origin in 86 [9.4%] patients). At 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, mortality rates were 4.5%, 7.6%, 10.8%, and 12.3% respectively. All the risk scores showed a stepwise increase in the risk of death throughout the scoring system of each of the scores and all 4 scores identified patients at greater risk of mortality. The scores were significantly associated with all-cause mortality throughout the follow-up period. PACE displayed the lowest c-index value regardless of whether the population had heart disease of ischemic (c-statistic = 0.61) or nonischemic origin (c-statistic = 0.61), whereas MADIT-II (c-statistic = 0.67 and 0.65 in ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy, respectively), SHOCKED (c-statistic = 0.68 and 0.66, respectively), and FADES (c-statistic = 0.66 and 0.60) provided similar c-statistic values (P ≥ .09). In this nontrial-based cohort of Mediterranean patients, the 4 evaluated risk scores showed a significant stepwise increase in the risk of death. Among the currently available risk scores, MADIT-II, FADES, and SHOCKED provide slightly better performance than PACE. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

An Empiric HIV Risk Scoring Tool to Predict HIV-1 Acquisition in African Women.

PubMed

Balkus, Jennifer E; Brown, Elizabeth; Palanee, Thesla; Nair, Gonasagrie; Gafoor, Zakir; Zhang, Jingyang; Richardson, Barbra A; Chirenje, Zvavahera M; Marrazzo, Jeanne M; Baeten, Jared M

2016-07-01

To develop and validate an HIV risk assessment tool to predict HIV acquisition among African women. Data were analyzed from 3 randomized trials of biomedical HIV prevention interventions among African women (VOICE, HPTN 035, and FEM-PrEP). We implemented standard methods for the development of clinical prediction rules to generate a risk-scoring tool to predict HIV acquisition over the course of 1 year. Performance of the score was assessed through internal and external validations. The final risk score resulting from multivariable modeling included age, married/living with a partner, partner provides financial or material support, partner has other partners, alcohol use, detection of a curable sexually transmitted infection, and herpes simplex virus 2 serostatus. Point values for each factor ranged from 0 to 2, with a maximum possible total score of 11. Scores ≥5 were associated with HIV incidence >5 per 100 person-years and identified 91% of incident HIV infections from among only 64% of women. The area under the curve (AUC) for predictive ability of the score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.74), indicating good predictive ability. Risk score performance was generally similar with internal cross-validation (AUC = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.73) and external validation in HPTN 035 (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.75) and FEM-PrEP (AUC = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.65). A discrete set of characteristics that can be easily assessed in clinical and research settings was predictive of HIV acquisition over 1 year. The use of a validated risk score could improve efficiency of recruitment into HIV prevention research and inform scale-up of HIV prevention strategies in women at highest risk.

Relationship between CHA2DS2-VASc score and atrial electromechanical function in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: A pilot study.

PubMed

Vatan, Mehmet Bülent; Yılmaz, Sabiye; Ağaç, Mustafa Tarık; Çakar, Mehmet Akif; Erkan, Hakan; Aksoy, Murat; Demirtas, Saadet; Varım, Ceyhun; Akdemir, Ramazan; Gündüz, Hüseyin

2015-11-01

CHA2DS2-VASc score is the most widely preferred method for prediction of stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. We hypothesized that CHA2DS2-VASc score may represent atrial remodeling status, and therefore echocardiographic evaluation of left atrial electromechanical remodeling can be used to identify patients with high risk. A total of 65 patients who had documented diagnosis of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) were divided into three risk groups according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score: patients with low risk (score=0, group 1), with moderate risk (score=1, group 2), and with high risk score (score ≥2, group 3). We compared groups according to atrial electromechanical intervals and left atrium mechanical functions. Atrial electromechanical intervals including inter-atrial and intra-atrial electromechanical delay were not different between groups. However, parameters reflecting atrial mechanical functions including LA phasic volumes (Vmax, Vmin and Vp) were significantly higher in groups 2 and 3 compared with group 1. Likewise, LA passive emptying volume (LATEV) in the groups 2 and 3 was significantly higher than low-risk group (14.12±8.13ml/m(2), 22.36±8.78ml/m(2), 22.89±7.23ml/m(2), p: 0.031). Univariate analysis demonstrated that Vmax, Vmin and Vp were significantly correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score (r=0.428, r=0.456, r=0.451 and p<0.001). Also, LATEV (r=0.397, p=0.016) and LA active emptying volume (LAAEV) (r=0.281, p=0.023) were positively correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score. In the ROC analysis, Vmin≥11ml/m(2) has the highest predictive value for CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 (88% sensitivity and 89% specificity; ROC area 0.88, p<0.001, CI [0.76-0.99]). Echocardiographic evaluation of left atrial electromechanical function might represent a useful method to identify patients with high risk. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of mode of death in heart failure: the Seattle Heart Failure Model.

PubMed

Mozaffarian, Dariush; Anker, Stefan D; Anand, Inder; Linker, David T; Sullivan, Mark D; Cleland, John G F; Carson, Peter E; Maggioni, Aldo P; Mann, Douglas L; Pitt, Bertram; Poole-Wilson, Philip A; Levy, Wayne C

2007-07-24

Prognosis and mode of death in heart failure patients are highly variable in that some patients die suddenly (often from ventricular arrhythmia) and others die of progressive failure of cardiac function (pump failure). Prediction of mode of death may facilitate decisions about specific medications or devices. We used the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), a validated prediction model for total mortality in heart failure, to assess the mode of death in 10,538 ambulatory patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV heart failure and predominantly systolic dysfunction enrolled in 6 randomized trials or registries. During 16,735 person-years of follow-up, 2014 deaths occurred, which included 1014 sudden deaths and 684 pump-failure deaths. Compared with a SHFM score of 0, patients with a score of 1 had a 50% higher risk of sudden death, patients with a score of 2 had a nearly 3-fold higher risk, and patients with a score of 3 or 4 had a nearly 7-fold higher risk (P<0.001 for all comparisons; 1-year area under the receiver operating curve, 0.68). Stratification of risk of pump-failure death was even more pronounced, with a 4-fold higher risk with a score of 1, a 15-fold higher risk with a score of 2, a 38-fold higher risk with a score of 3, and an 88-fold higher risk with a score of 4 (P<0.001 for all comparisons; 1-year area under the receiver operating curve, 0.85). The proportion of deaths caused by sudden death versus pump-failure death decreased from a ratio of 7:1 with a SHFM score of 0 to a ratio of 1:2 with a SHFM score of 4 (P trend <0.001). The SHFM score provides information about the likely mode of death among ambulatory heart failure patients. Investigation is warranted to determine whether such information might predict responses to or cost-effectiveness of specific medications or devices in heart failure patients.

Dietary quality indices in relation to cardiometabolic risk among Finnish children aged 6-8 years - The PANIC study.

PubMed

Eloranta, A M; Schwab, U; Venäläinen, T; Kiiskinen, S; Lakka, H M; Laaksonen, D E; Lakka, T A; Lindi, V

2016-09-01

There are no studies on the relationships of dietary quality indices to the clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors in children. We therefore investigated the associations of four dietary quality indices with cardiometabolic risk score and cardiometabolic risk factors in Finnish children. Subjects were a population sample of 204 boys and 198 girls aged 6-8 years. We assessed diet by 4-day food records and calculated Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) Score, Baltic Sea Diet Score (BSDS), Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), and Finnish Children Healthy Eating Index (FCHEI). We calculated the age- and sex-adjusted cardiometabolic risk score summing up Z-scores for waist circumference, mean of systolic and diastolic blood pressure and concentrations of fasting serum insulin and fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides and HDL cholesterol, the last multiplying by -1. Higher FCHEI was associated with lower cardiometabolic risk score among boys (standardised regression coefficient β = -0.14, P = 0.044) adjusted for age, physical activity, electronic media time and household income. Higher DASH Score was related to a lower serum insulin in boys (β = -0.15, P = 0.028). Higher DASH Score (β = -0.16, P = 0.023) and FCHEI (β = -0.17, P = 0.014) were related to lower triglyceride concentration in boys. Higher FCHEI was associated with lower triglyceride concentration in girls (β = -0.16, P = 0.033). Higher DASH Score (β = -0.19, P = 0.011) and BSDS (β = -0.23, P = 0.001) were associated with lower plasma HDL cholesterol concentration in girls. Higher FCHEI was associated with lower cardiometabolic risk among boys, whereas DASH Score, BSDS or MDS were not associated with cardiometabolic risk in children. Copyright © 2016 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Associations of CAIDE Dementia Risk Score with MRI, PIB-PET measures, and cognition

PubMed Central

Stephen, Ruth; Liu, Yawu; Ngandu, Tiia; Rinne, Juha O.; Kemppainen, Nina; Parkkola, Riitta; Laatikainen, Tiina; Paajanen, Teemu; Hänninen, Tuomo; Strandberg, Timo; Antikainen, Riitta; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Keinänen Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Vanninen, Ritva; Helisalmi, Seppo; Levälahti, Esko; Kivipelto, Miia; Soininen, Hilkka; Solomon, Alina

2017-01-01

Background: CAIDE Dementia Risk Score is the first validated tool for estimating dementia risk based on a midlife risk profile. Objectives: This observational study investigated longitudinal associations of CAIDE Dementia Risk Score with brain MRI, amyloid burden evaluated with PIB-PET, and detailed cognition measures. Methods: FINGER participants were at-risk elderly without dementia. CAIDE Risk Score was calculated using data from previous national surveys (mean age 52.4 years). In connection to baseline FINGER visit (on average 17.6 years later, mean age 70.1 years), 132 participants underwent MRI scans, and 48 underwent PIB-PET scans. All 1,260 participants were cognitively assessed (Neuropsychological Test Battery, NTB). Neuroimaging assessments included brain cortical thickness and volumes (Freesurfer 5.0.3), visually rated medial temporal atrophy (MTA), white matter lesions (WML), and amyloid accumulation. Results: Higher CAIDE Dementia Risk Score was related to more pronounced deep WML (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05–1.43), lower total gray matter (β-coefficient –0.29, p = 0.001) and hippocampal volume (β-coefficient –0.28, p = 0.003), lower cortical thickness (β-coefficient –0.19, p = 0.042), and poorer cognition (β-coefficients –0.31 for total NTB score, –0.25 for executive functioning, –0.33 for processing speed, and –0.20 for memory, all p < 0.001). Higher CAIDE Dementia Risk Score including APOE genotype was additionally related to more pronounced MTA (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.00–1.30). No associations were found with periventricular WML or amyloid accumulation. Conclusions: The CAIDE Dementia Risk Score was related to indicators of cerebrovascular changes and neurodegeneration on MRI, and cognition. The lack of association with brain amyloid accumulation needs to be verified in studies with larger sample sizes. PMID:28671114

Identifying Patients With Vesicovaginal Fistula at High Risk of Urinary Incontinence After Surgery

PubMed Central

Bengtson, Angela M.; Kopp, Dawn; Tang, Jennifer H.; Chipungu, Ennet; Moyo, Margaret; Wilkinson, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

Objective To develop a risk score to identify women with vesicovaginal fistula at high risk of residual urinary incontinence after surgical repair. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study among 401 women undergoing their first vesicovaginal fistula repair at a referral fistula repair center in Lilongwe, Malawi, between September 2011 and December 2014, who returned for follow-up within 120 days of surgery. We used logistic regression to develop a risk score to identify women with high likelihood of residual urinary incontinence, defined as incontinence grade 2-5 within 120 days of vesicovaginal fistula repair, based on preoperative clinical and demographic characteristics (age, number of years with fistula, HIV status, body mass index, previous repair surgery at an outside facility, revised Goh Classification, Goh vesicovaginal fistula size, circumferential fistula, vaginal scaring, bladder size, and urethral length). The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the risk score at each cut-point were assessed. Results Overall, 11 (3%) women had unsuccessful fistula closure. Of those with successful fistula closure (n=372), 85 (23%) experienced residual incontinence. A risk score cut-point of 20 had sensitivity 82% (95% CI 72%, 89%) and specificity 63% (95% CI 57%, 69%) to potentially identify women with residual incontinence. In our population, the positive predictive value for a risk score cut-point of _20 or higher was 43% (95% CI 36%, 51%) and the negative predictive value was 91% (95% CI 86%, 94%). Forty-eight percent of our study population had a risk score ≥20 and therefore, would have been identified for further intervention. Conclusions A risk score 20 or higher was associated with an increased likelihood of residual incontinence, with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity. If validated in alternative settings, the risk score could be used to refer women with high likelihood of postoperative incontinence to more experienced surgeons. PMID:27741181

Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism in Pediatric Trauma Patients and Validation of a Novel Scoring System: The Risk of Clots in Kids with Trauma (ROCKIT score)

PubMed Central

Yen, Jennifer; Van Arendonk, Kyle J.; Streiff, Michael B.; McNamara, LeAnn; Stewart, F. Dylan; Conner G, Kim G; Thompson, Richard E.; Haut, Elliott R.; Takemoto, Clifford M.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES Identify risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) and develop a VTE risk assessment model for pediatric trauma patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS We performed a retrospective review of patients 21 years and younger who were hospitalized following traumatic injuries at the John Hopkins level 1 adult and pediatric trauma center (1987-2011). The clinical characteristics of patients with and without VTE were compared, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for VTE. Weighted risk assessment scoring systems were developed based on these and previously identified factors from patients in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB 2008-2010); the scoring systems were validated in this cohort from Johns Hopkins as well as a cohort of pediatric admissions from the NTDB (2011-2012). MAIN RESULTS Forty-nine of 17,366 pediatric trauma patients (0.28%) were diagnosed with VTE after admission to our trauma center. After adjusting for potential confounders, VTE was independently associated with older age, surgery, blood transfusion, higher Injury Severity Score (ISS), and lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score. These and additional factors were identified in 402,329 pediatric patients from the NTDB from 2008-2010; independent risk factors from the logistic regression analysis of this NTDB cohort were selected and incorporated into weighted risk assessment scoring systems. Two models were developed and were cross-validated in 2 separate pediatric trauma cohorts: 1) 282,535 patients in the NTDB from 2011 to 2012 2) 17,366 patients from Johns Hopkins. The receiver operator curve using these models in the validation cohorts had area under the curves that ranged 90% to 94%. CONCLUSIONS VTE is infrequent after trauma in pediatric patients. We developed weighted scoring systems to stratify pediatric trauma patients at risk for VTE. These systems may have potential to guide risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis in children after trauma. PMID:26963757

Method of Breast Reconstruction Determines Venous Thromboembolism Risk Better Than Current Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Patel, Niyant V.; Wagner, Douglas S.

2015-01-01

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk models including the Davison risk score and the 2005 Caprini risk assessment model have been validated in plastic surgery patients. However, their utility and predictive value in breast reconstruction has not been well described. We sought to determine the utility of current VTE risk models in this population and the VTE rate observed in various methods of breast reconstruction. Methods: A retrospective review of breast reconstructions by a single surgeon was performed. One hundred consecutive transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous (TRAM) patients, 100 consecutive implant patients, and 100 consecutive latissimus dorsi patients were identified over a 10-year period. Patient demographics and presence of symptomatic VTE were collected. 2005 Caprini risk scores and Davison risk scores were calculated for each patient. Results: The TRAM reconstruction group was found to have a higher VTE rate (6%) than the implant (0%) and latissimus (0%) reconstruction groups (P < 0.01). Mean Davison risk scores and 2005 Caprini scores were similar across all reconstruction groups (P > 0.1). The vast majority of patients were stratified as high risk (87.3%) by the VTE risk models. However, only TRAM reconstruction patients demonstrated significant VTE risk. Conclusions: TRAM reconstruction appears to have a significantly higher risk of VTE than both implant and latissimus reconstruction. Current risk models do not effectively stratify breast reconstruction patients at risk for VTE. The method of breast reconstruction appears to have a significant role in patients’ VTE risk. PMID:26090287

Development and validation of multivariable predictive model for thromboembolic events in lymphoma patients.

PubMed

Antic, Darko; Milic, Natasa; Nikolovski, Srdjan; Todorovic, Milena; Bila, Jelena; Djurdjevic, Predrag; Andjelic, Bosko; Djurasinovic, Vladislava; Sretenovic, Aleksandra; Vukovic, Vojin; Jelicic, Jelena; Hayman, Suzanne; Mihaljevic, Biljana

2016-10-01

Lymphoma patients are at increased risk of thromboembolic events but thromboprophylaxis in these patients is largely underused. We sought to develop and validate a simple model, based on individual clinical and laboratory patient characteristics that would designate lymphoma patients at risk for thromboembolic event. The study population included 1,820 lymphoma patients who were treated in the Lymphoma Departments at the Clinics of Hematology, Clinical Center of Serbia and Clinical Center Kragujevac. The model was developed using data from a derivation cohort (n = 1,236), and further assessed in the validation cohort (n = 584). Sixty-five patients (5.3%) in the derivation cohort and 34 (5.8%) patients in the validation cohort developed thromboembolic events. The variables independently associated with risk for thromboembolism were: previous venous and/or arterial events, mediastinal involvement, BMI>30 kg/m(2) , reduced mobility, extranodal localization, development of neutropenia and hemoglobin level < 100g/L. Based on the risk model score, the population was divided into the following risk categories: low (score 0-1), intermediate (score 2-3), and high (score >3). For patients classified at risk (intermediate and high-risk scores), the model produced negative predictive value of 98.5%, positive predictive value of 25.1%, sensitivity of 75.4%, and specificity of 87.5%. A high-risk score had positive predictive value of 65.2%. The diagnostic performance measures retained similar values in the validation cohort. Developed prognostic Thrombosis Lymphoma - ThroLy score is more specific for lymphoma patients than any other available score targeting thrombosis in cancer patients. Am. J. Hematol. 91:1014-1019, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Performance of the Framingham and SCORE cardiovascular risk prediction functions in a non-diabetic population of a Spanish health care centre: a validation study

PubMed Central

Barroso, Lourdes Cañón; Muro, Eloísa Cruces; Herrera, Natalio Díaz; Ochoa, Gerardo Fernández; Hueros, Juan Ignacio Calvo; Buitrago, Francisco

2010-01-01

Objective To analyse the 10-year performance of the original Framingham coronary risk function and of the SCORE cardiovascular death risk function in a non-diabetic population of 40–65 years of age served by a Spanish healthcare centre. Also, to estimate the percentage of patients who are candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy. Design Longitudinal, observational study of a retrospective cohort followed up for 10 years. Setting Primary care health centre. Patients A total of 608 non-diabetic patients of 40–65 years of age (mean 52.8 years, 56.7% women), without evidence of cardiovascular disease were studied. Main outcome measures Coronary risk at 10 years from the time of their recruitment, using the tables based on the original Framingham function, and of their 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease using the SCORE tables. Results The actual incidence rates of coronary and fatal cardiovascular events were 7.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The original Framingham equation over-predicted risk by 64%, while SCORE function over-predicted risk by 40%, but the SCORE model performed better than the Framingham one for discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function classified 18.3% of the population as high risk and SCORE 9.2%. The proportions of patients who would be candidates for lipid-lowering therapy were 31.0% and 23.8% according to the original Framingham and SCORE functions, respectively, and 36.8% and 31.2% for antihypertensive therapy. Conclusion The SCORE function showed better values than the original Framingham function for each of the discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function selected a greater percentage of candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy. PMID:20873973

[Subjective parental stress as indicator for child abuse risk: the role of emotional regulation and attachment].

PubMed

Spangler, Gottfried; Bovenschen, Ina; Globisch, Jutta; Krippl, Martin; Ast-Scheitenberger, Stephanie

2009-01-01

The Child Abuse Potential Inventory (CAPI) is an evidence-based procedure for the assessment of the risk for child abuse in parents. In this study, a German translation of the CAPI was applied to a normal sample of German parents (N = 944). Descriptive analysis of the CAPI scores in the German provides findings comparable to the original standardization sample. The subjects' child abuse risk score was associated with demographic characteristics like education, marital status, occupation and gender. Long-term stability of the child abuse risk score and associations with individual differences in emotional regulation and attachment were investigated in a sub-sample of mothers with high and low child abuse risk scores (N = 69). The findings proved long-term stability. Furthermore associations between the child abuse risk score and anger dispositions were found which, however, were moderated by attachment differences. The findings suggest attachment security as a protective factor against child abuse.

Risk of Stroke in Patients With Short-Run Atrial Tachyarrhythmia.

PubMed

Yamada, Shinya; Lin, Chin-Yu; Chang, Shih-Lin; Chao, Tze-Fan; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Lo, Li-Wei; Chung, Fa-Po; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Te, Abigail Louise D; Chang, Yao-Ting; Chang, Ting-Yung; Wu, Cheng-I; Higa, Satoshi; Chen, Shih-Ann

2017-12-01

The risk of stroke in patients with short-run atrial tachyarrhythmia (AT) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between short-run AT and the stroke and the use of the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score for the risk stratification. From the registry of 24-hour Holter monitoring, 5342 subjects without known atrial fibrillation or stroke were enrolled. Short-run AT was defined as episodes of supraventricular ectopic beats <5 seconds. There were 1595 subjects (29.8%) with short-run AT. During the median follow-up period of 9.0 years, 494 subjects developed new-onset stroke. Patients with short-run AT had significantly higher stroke rates compared with patients without short-run AT (11.4% versus 8.3%; P <0.001). In patients with short-run AT, the number of strokes per 100 person-years for patients with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 0 and 1 were 0.23 and 0.67, respectively. However, the number of them for patients with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 were 1.62, 1.89, 1.30, and 2.91, respectively. In patients with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 0 or 1, age (>61 years old) and burden of premature atrial contractions (>25 beats/d) independently predicted the risk of stroke. In subgroup analyses, short-run AT patients were divided into 3 groups based on their CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores: low score (score of 0 [men] or 1 [women]; n=324), intermediate score (score of 1 [men] or 2 [women]; n=275), and high score (score of ≥2 [men] or ≥3 [women]; n=996). When compared with low score, intermediate and high scores were independent predictors for stroke (hazard ratio, 6.165; P <0.001 and hazard ratio, 8.577; P <0.001, respectively). Short-run AT increases the risk of stroke. Therefore, the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score could be used for the risk stratification. Age and burden of premature atrial contractions were independent predictors for stroke in patients with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score of 0 or 1. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Comparison of four contemporary risk models at predicting mortality after aortic valve replacement.

PubMed

Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David H M; Stewart, Ralph; Gamble, Greg; Haydock, David; Ruygrok, Peter

2015-02-01

Risk stratification for aortic valve replacement (AVR) is desirable given the increased demand for intervention and the introduction of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We compared the prognostic utility of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR score) for AVR. We retrospectively calculated the 4 risk scores for patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital from 2005 to 2012 and assessed their discrimination and calibration for short- and long-term mortality. A total of 620 patients were followed up for 3.8 ± 2.4 years, with an operative mortality of 2.9% (n = 18). The mean EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, STS score, and Aus-AVR score was 8.7% ± 8.3%, 3.8% ± 4.7%, 2.8% ± 2.7%, and 3.2% ± 4.8%, respectively. The corresponding C-statistics for operative mortality were 0.752 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.652-0.852), 0.711 (95% CI, 0.607-0.815), 0.716 (95% CI, 0.593-0.837), and 0.684 (95% CI, 0.557-0.811). The corresponding Hosmer-Lemeshow test P and chi-square values for calibration were .007 and 21.1, .125 and 12.6, .753 and 5.0, and .468 and 7.7. The corresponding Brier scores were 0.0348, 0.0278, 0.0276, and 0.0294. Independent predictors of operative mortality included critical preoperative state, atrial fibrillation, extracardiac arteriopathy, and mitral stenosis. The log-rank test P values were all <.001 for mortality during follow-up for all 4 scores, stratified by quintile. All 4 risk scores discriminated operative mortality after isolated AVR. The EuroSCORE had poor calibration, overestimating operative mortality, although the other 3 scores fitted well with contemporary outcomes. The STS score was the best calibrated in the highest quintile of operative risk. Copyright © 2015 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Cardiovascular risk by Framingham and SCORE in patients 40-65 years old].

PubMed

González, Carmen; Rodilla, Enrique; Costa, José A; Justicia, Jorge; Pascual, José M

2006-04-15

The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and treatment implications of 2 cardiovascular risk stratification systems in a population of patients 40-65 years old. 929 non diabetic patients (40-65 years old) (51% female) with no evidence of previous cardiovascular disease were included in the study. The risk of cardiovascular death was assessed with the charts of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and coronary risk by the Framingham function (National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults -NCEP-ATP-III-). Patients were considered of high risk if risk of cardiovascular death was >or= 5% and coronary risk was > 20%, respectively. 4.1% of patients were considered as high risk by SCORE and 2.5% by Framingham. Only 0.2% of females were classified as high risk with either system. 8.2% and 4.8% of male population were considered as high risk by SCORE and Framingham, respectively. There was a low level of concordance between both systems. Patients classified as high risk by SCORE but not by Framingham were older, smoke less and had a better lipid profile. According to European Guidelines 28% of male and 23% of female were candidates to hypolipemic treatment, that proportion was higher, 43% of males and 28% of females, by NCEP-ATP-III guidelines. In Spanish patients 40-65 years old, SCORE charts almost duplicate the number of high risk individuals compared to Framingham. although the number of patients candidates to hypolipemic treatment is lower with the European than ATP-III guidelines. Differences were more evident in male.

The Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Khambhati, Jay; Allard-Ratick, Marc; Dhindsa, Devinder; Lee, Suegene; Chen, John; Sandesara, Pratik B; Quyyumi, Arshed A; Wong, Nathan D; Blumenthal, Roger S; Sperling, Laurence

2018-06-19

The authors would like to submit two corrections on the recently published manuscript, Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment. In section 4, the original sentence states: "However, the SCCT does not recommend use of a CAC score in low-risk patients with an ASCVD risk of < 10%." We would like to correct this to "Furthermore, the SCCT recommends consideration of a CAC score in those with a risk score of 5-20% and selectively in those with lower predicted risk who have a family history of premature ASCVD or other risk conditions." This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

National survey of emergency physicians for transient ischemic attack (TIA) risk stratification consensus and appropriate treatment for a given level of risk.

PubMed

Perry, Jeffrey J; Losier, Justin H; Stiell, Ian G; Sharma, Mukul; Abdulaziz, Kasim

2016-01-01

Five percent of transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients have a subsequent stroke within 7 days. The Canadian TIA Score uses clinical findings to calculate the subsequent stroke risk within 7 days. Our objectives were to assess 1) anticipated use; 2) component face validity; 3) risk strata for stroke within 7 days; and 4) actions required, for a given risk for subsequent stroke. After a rigorous development process, a survey questionnaire was administered to a random sample of 300 emergency physicians selected from those registered in a national medical directory. The surveys were distributed using a modified Dillman technique. From a total of 271 eligible surveys, we received 131 (48.3%) completed surveys; 96.2% of emergency physicians would use a validated Canadian TIA Score; 8 of 13 components comprising the Canadian TIA Score were rated as Very Important or Important by survey respondents. Risk categories for subsequent stroke were defined as minimal-risk: 10% risk of subsequent stroke within 7 days. A validated Canadian TIA Score will likely be used by emergency physicians. Most components of the TIA Score have high face validity. Risk strata are definable, which may allow physicians to determine immediate actions, based on subsequent stroke risk, in the emergency department.

Additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Brkovic, Voin; Dobric, Milan; Beleslin, Branko; Giga, Vojislav; Vukcevic, Vladan; Stojkovic, Sinisa; Stankovic, Goran; Nedeljkovic, Milan A; Orlic, Dejan; Tomasevic, Miloje; Stepanovic, Jelena; Ostojic, Miodrag

2013-08-01

This study evaluated additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). All six scores were calculated in 209 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing pPCI. Primary end-point was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE--composite of cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke); secondary end point was cardiovascular mortality. Patients were stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles (≤12; between 12 and 19.5; >19.5). The median follow-up was 20 months. Rates of MACE and cardiovascular mortality were highest in the upper tertile of the SYNTAX score (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively). SYNTAX score was independent multivariable predictor of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, and PAMI risk scores. However, the SYNTAX score did not improve the Cox regression models of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to the CADILLAC score. The SYNTAX score has predictive value for MACE and cardiovascular mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. Furthermore, SYNTAX score improves prognostic performance of well-established GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE and PAMI clinical scores, but not the CADILLAC risk score. Therefore, long-term survival in patients after STEMI depends less on detailed angiographical characterization of coronary lesions, but more on clinical characteristics, myocardial function and basic angiographic findings as provided by the CADILLAC score.

The clinical relevance of the Waterlow pressure sore risk scale in the ICU.

PubMed

Weststrate, J T; Hop, W C; Aalbers, A G; Vreeling, A W; Bruining, H A

1998-08-01

To evaluate whether the Waterlow pressure sore risk (PSR) scale has prognostic significance for intensive care patients. A prospective study. The surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of the University Hospital Rotterdam. Data were evaluated from 594 patients who had been admitted to the ICU during the year 1994. Each patient was assessed daily with respect to their Waterlow PSR score and the development of pressure sores in the sacral region. Actuarial statistical methods were used to analyse the predictive value of the risk score. When a patient had a Waterlow PSR score > 25 on admission, the risk of developing a pressure sore was significantly increased compared to patients with a PSR score < 25. After admission, the daily Waterlow PSR scores obtained were significantly associated with the risk of developing a pressure sore. For each additional point this risk increased by 23% (95% confidence interval 17 to 28%). The Waterlow PSR scale provides the medical and nursing staff at an early stage with reliable information about the risk patients have in developing a pressure sore.

WHipple-ABACUS, a simple, validated risk score for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy developed using the ACS-NSQIP database.

PubMed

Gleeson, Elizabeth M; Shaikh, Mohammad F; Shewokis, Patricia A; Clarke, John R; Meyers, William C; Pitt, Henry A; Bowne, Wilbur B

2016-11-01

Pancreaticoduodenectomy needs simple, validated risk models to better identify 30-day mortality. The goal of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy. We reviewed cases of pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2005-2012 in the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program databases. Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative risk factors for morbidity and mortality from a development cohort. Scores were created using weighted beta coefficients, and predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort using receiver operator characteristic curves and measuring area under the curve. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.7% for patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 14,993). We identified 8 independent risk factors. The score created from weighted beta coefficients had an area under the curve of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.77) on the validation cohort. Using the score WHipple-ABACUS (hypertension With medication + History of cardiac surgery + Age >62 + 2 × Bleeding disorder + Albumin <3.5 g/dL + 2 × disseminated Cancer + 2 × Use of steroids + 2 × Systemic inflammatory response syndrome), mortality rates increase with increasing score (P < .001). While other risk scores exist for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy, we present a simple, validated score developed using exclusively preoperative predictors surgeons could use to identify patients at risk for this procedure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

2002-10-29

Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

Association Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in Pooled Occupational Cohorts.

PubMed

Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew Steven; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew S; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Wood, Eric M; Kendall, Richard; Wertsch, Jacqueline; Foster, James; Garg, Arun; Drury, David L

2016-01-01

The aim of the study was to ascertain if cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors are carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) risk factors. Analysis of pooled baseline data from two large prospective cohort studies (n = 1824) assessed the relationships between a modified Framingham Heart Study CVD risk score both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study prevalence. Quantified job exposures, personal and psychosocial confounders were statistically controlled. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for individual risk scores. There was a strong relationship between CVD risk score and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study after adjustment for confounders, with odds ratios as high as 4.16 and 7.35, respectively. Dose responses were also observed. In this workplace population, there is a strong association between CVD risk scores and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study that persisted after controlling for confounders. These data suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism.

Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.

PubMed

Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C

2017-07-01

Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Time-dependent changes in mortality and transformation risk in MDS

PubMed Central

Tuechler, Heinz; Sanz, Guillermo; Schanz, Julie; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc; Bennett, John M.; Bowen, David; Fenaux, Pierre; Dreyfus, Francois; Kantarjian, Hagop; Kuendgen, Andrea; Malcovati, Luca; Cazzola, Mario; Cermak, Jaroslav; Fonatsch, Christa; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Levis, Alessandro; Luebbert, Michael; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw; Machherndl-Spandl, Sigrid; Magalhaes, Silvia M. M.; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Sekeres, Mikkael A.; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Stauder, Reinhard; Tauro, Sudhir; Valent, Peter; Vallespi, Teresa; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A.; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Greenberg, Peter L.

2016-01-01

In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), the evolution of risk for disease progression or death has not been systematically investigated despite being crucial for correct interpretation of prognostic risk scores. In a multicenter retrospective study, we described changes in risk over time, the consequences for basal prognostic scores, and their potential clinical implications. Major MDS prognostic risk scoring systems and their constituent individual predictors were analyzed in 7212 primary untreated MDS patients from the International Working Group for Prognosis in MDS database. Changes in risk of mortality and of leukemic transformation over time from diagnosis were described. Hazards regarding mortality and acute myeloid leukemia transformation diminished over time from diagnosis in higher-risk MDS patients, whereas they remained stable in lower-risk patients. After approximately 3.5 years, hazards in the separate risk groups became similar and were essentially equivalent after 5 years. This fact led to loss of prognostic power of different scoring systems considered, which was more pronounced for survival. Inclusion of age resulted in increased initial prognostic power for survival and less attenuation in hazards. If needed for practicability in clinical management, the differing development of risks suggested a reasonable division into lower- and higher-risk MDS based on the IPSS-R at a cutoff of 3.5 points. Our data regarding time-dependent performance of prognostic scores reflect the disparate change of risks in MDS subpopulations. Lower-risk patients at diagnosis remain lower risk whereas initially high-risk patients demonstrate decreasing risk over time. This change of risk should be considered in clinical decision making. PMID:27335276

Risk determination after an acute myocardial infarction: review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools.

PubMed

Scruth, Elizabeth Ann; Page, Karen; Cheng, Eugene; Campbell, Michelle; Worrall-Carter, Linda

2012-01-01

The objective of the study was to provide comprehensive information for the clinical nurse specialist (CNS) on commonly used clinical prediction (risk assessment) tools used to estimate risk of a secondary cardiac or noncardiac event and mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The evolution and widespread adoption of primary PCI represent major advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, specifically STEMI. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association have recommended early risk stratification for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes using several clinical risk scores to identify patients' mortality and secondary event risk after PCI. Clinical nurse specialists are integral to any performance improvement strategy. Their knowledge and understandings of clinical prediction tools will be essential in carrying out important assessment, identifying and managing risk in patients who have sustained a STEMI, and enhancing discharge education including counseling on medications and lifestyle changes. Over the past 2 decades, risk scores have been developed from clinical trials to facilitate risk assessment. There are several risk scores that can be used to determine in-hospital and short-term survival. This article critiques the most common tools: the Thrombolytic in Myocardial Infarction risk score, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, and the Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications risk score. The importance of incorporating risk screening assessment tools (that are important for clinical prediction models) to guide therapeutic management of patients cannot be underestimated. The ability to forecast secondary risk after a STEMI will assist in determining which patients would require the most aggressive level of treatment and monitoring postintervention including outpatient monitoring. With an increased awareness of specialist assessment tools, the CNS can play an important role in risk prevention and ongoing cardiovascular health promotion in patients diagnosed with STEMI. Knowledge of clinical prediction tools to estimate risk for mortality and risk of secondary events after PCI for acute coronary syndromes including STEMI is essential for the CNS in assisting with improving short- and long-term outcomes and for performance improvement strategies. The risk score assessment utilizing a collaborative approach with the multidisciplinary healthcare team provides for the development of a treatment plan including any invasive intervention strategy for the patient. Copyright © 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System for Severe Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Aoki, Tomonori; Nagata, Naoyoshi; Shimbo, Takuro; Niikura, Ryota; Sakurai, Toshiyuki; Moriyasu, Shiori; Okubo, Hidetaka; Sekine, Katsunori; Watanabe, Kazuhiro; Yokoi, Chizu; Yanase, Mikio; Akiyama, Junichi; Mizokami, Masashi; Uemura, Naomi

2016-11-01

We aimed to develop and validate a risk scoring system to determine the risk of severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) and predict patient outcomes. We first performed a retrospective analysis of data from 439 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Japan, from January 2009 through December 2013. We used data on comorbidities, medication, presenting symptoms, and vital signs, and laboratory test results to develop a scoring system for severe LGIB (defined as continuous and/or recurrent bleeding). We validated the risk score in a prospective study of 161 patients with acute LGIB admitted to the same center from April 2014 through April 2015. We assessed the system's accuracy in predicting patient outcome using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) analysis. All patients underwent colonoscopy. In the first study, 29% of the patients developed severe LGIB. We devised a risk scoring system based on nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure of 100 mm Hg or lower, antiplatelet drugs use, albumin level less than 3.0 g/dL, disease scores of 2 or higher, and syncope (NOBLADS), which all were independent correlates of severe LGIB. Severe LGIB developed in 75.7% of patients with scores of 5 or higher compared with 2% of patients without any of the factors correlated with severe LGIB (P < .001). The NOBLADS score determined the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.77. In the validation (second) study, severe LGIB developed in 35% of patients; the NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.76. Higher NOBLADS scores were associated with a requirement for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, and intervention (P < .05 for trend). We developed and validated a scoring system for risk of severe LGIB based on 8 factors (NOBLADS score). The system also determined the risk for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, and intervention. It might be used in decision making regarding intervention and management. Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in the context of multifactorial decision making to guide chemotherapy for early-stage breast cancer.

PubMed

Reed, Shelby D; Dinan, Michaela A; Schulman, Kevin A; Lyman, Gary H

2013-03-01

New evidence is available regarding the utility of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in guiding chemotherapy use for node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. We applied this evidence in a decision-analytic model to re-evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the assay. We cross-classified patients by clinicopathologic characteristics from the Adjuvant! risk index and by recurrence score risk group. For non-recurrence score-guided treatment, we assumed patients receiving hormonal therapy alone had low-risk characteristics and patients receiving chemotherapy and hormonal therapy had higher-risk characteristics. For recurrence score-guided treatment, we assigned chemotherapy probabilities conditional on recurrence score risk group and clinicopathologic characteristics. An estimated 40.4% of patients in the recurrence score-guided strategy and 47.3% in the non-recurrence score-guided strategy were expected to receive chemotherapy. The incremental gain in quality-adjusted life-years was 0.16 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.28) with the recurrence score-guided strategy. Lifetime medical costs to the health system were $2,692 ($1,546-$3,821) higher with the recurrence score-guided strategy, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $16,677/quality-adjusted life-year ($7,613-$37,219). From a societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness was $10,788/quality-adjusted life-year ($6,840-$30,265). The findings provide supportive evidence for the economic value of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

Prediction for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance by Using Weighted Genetic Risk Score Identified From Genome-Wide Association Study in Kawasaki Disease.

PubMed

Kuo, Ho-Chang; Wong, Henry Sung-Ching; Chang, Wei-Pin; Chen, Ben-Kuen; Wu, Mei-Shin; Yang, Kuender D; Hsieh, Kai-Sheng; Hsu, Yu-Wen; Liu, Shih-Feng; Liu, Xiao; Chang, Wei-Chiao

2017-10-01

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is the treatment of choice in Kawasaki disease (KD). IVIG is used to prevent cardiovascular complications related to KD. However, a proportion of KD patients have persistent fever after IVIG treatment and are defined as IVIG resistant. To develop a risk scoring system based on genetic markers to predict IVIG responsiveness in KD patients, a total of 150 KD patients (126 IVIG responders and 24 IVIG nonresponders) were recruited for this study. A genome-wide association analysis was performed to compare the 2 groups and identified risk alleles for IVIG resistance. A weighted genetic risk score was calculated by the natural log of the odds ratio multiplied by the number of risk alleles. Eleven single-nucleotide polymorphisms were identified by genome-wide association study. The KD patients were categorized into 3 groups based on their calculated weighted genetic risk score. Results indicated a significant association between weighted genetic risk score (groups 3 and 4 versus group 1) and the response to IVIG (Fisher's exact P value 4.518×10 - 03 and 8.224×10 - 10 , respectively). This is the first weighted genetic risk score study based on a genome-wide association study in KD. The predictive model integrated the additive effects of all 11 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to provide a prediction of the responsiveness to IVIG. © 2017 The Authors.

Knowledge of heart disease risk in a multicultural community sample of people with diabetes.

PubMed

Wagner, Julie; Lacey, Kimberly; Abbott, Gina; de Groot, Mary; Chyun, Deborah

2006-06-01

Prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) is a primary goal of diabetes management. Unfortunately, CHD risk knowledge is poor among people with diabetes. The objective is to determine predictors of CHD risk knowledge in a community sample of people with diabetes. A total of 678 people with diabetes completed the Heart Disease Facts Questionnaire (HDFQ), a valid and reliable measure of knowledge about the relationship between diabetes and heart disease. In regression analysis with demographics predicting HDFQ scores, sex, annual income, education, and health insurance status predicted HDFQ scores. In a separate regression analysis, having CHD risk factors did not predict HDFQ scores, however, taking medication for CHD risk factors did predict higher HDFQ scores. An analysis of variance showed significant differences between ethnic groups for HDFQ scores; Whites (M = 20.9) showed more CHD risk knowledge than African Americans (M = 19.6), who in turn showed more than Latinos (M = 18.2). Asians scored near Whites (M = 20.4) but did not differ significantly from any other group. Controlling for numerous demographic, socioeconomic, health care, diabetes, and cardiovascular health variables, the magnitude of ethnic differences was attenuated, but persisted. Education regarding modifiable risk factors must be delivered in a timely fashion so that lifestyle modification can be implemented and evaluated before pharmacotherapy is deemed necessary. African Americans and Latinos with diabetes are in the greatest need of education regarding CHD risk.

Prognostic Value of Risk Score and Urinary Markers in Idiopathic Membranous Nephropathy

PubMed Central

Hofstra, Julia M.; Wetzels, Jack F.M.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Accurate prediction of prognosis may improve management of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. This study compared the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins. Design, setting, participants, & measurements One hundred four patients with biopsy-proven idiopathic membranous nephropathy who presented between 1995 and 2008 with a well-preserved kidney function and nephrotic range proteinuria were included. Urinary β2-microglobulin and α1-microglobulin measurements were obtained by timed standardized measurements, and the Toronto Risk Score was calculated using data obtained from medical records. The endpoint was progression, which was defined as an increase in serum creatinine>50% or >25% with a concentration>135 μmol/L. Results Forty-nine patients showed progression. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval=0.69–0.88) for the risk score versus 0.80 (0.71–0.89) and 0.79 (0.71–0.88) for urinary β2- and α1-microglobulin, respectively. Differences were not significant. Persistent proteinuria did not add accuracy to the Toronto Risk Score. Conversely, its accuracy was not reduced when data from the first 6 months of follow-up were used. Furthermore, a score based on GFR estimated with the six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, calculated in the first 6 months of follow-up, gave an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (0.74–0.92), which was not statistically different from other markers. Conclusions The prognostic accuracies of the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins were not significantly different. The risk score can be calculated within 6 months of diagnosis, and a simplified risk score using estimated GFR–Modification of Diet in Renal Disease may be sufficient. PMID:22595828

A tool for prediction of risk of rehospitalisation and mortality in the hospitalised elderly: secondary analysis of clinical trial data

PubMed Central

Alassaad, Anna; Melhus, Håkan; Hammarlund-Udenaes, Margareta; Bertilsson, Maria; Gillespie, Ulrika; Sundström, Johan

2015-01-01

Objectives To construct and internally validate a risk score, the ‘80+ score’, for revisits to hospital and mortality for older patients, incorporating aspects of pharmacotherapy. Our secondary aim was to compare the discriminatory ability of the score with that of three validated tools for measuring inappropriate prescribing: Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions (STOPP), Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment (START) and Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI). Setting Two acute internal medicine wards at Uppsala University hospital. Patient data were used from a randomised controlled trial investigating the effects of a comprehensive clinical pharmacist intervention. Participants Data from 368 patients, aged 80 years and older, admitted to one of the study wards. Primary outcome measure Time to rehospitalisation or death during the year after discharge from hospital. Candidate variables were selected among a large number of clinical and drug-specific variables. After a selection process, a score for risk estimation was constructed. The 80+ score was internally validated, and the discriminatory ability of the score and of STOPP, START and MAI was assessed using C-statistics. Results Seven variables were selected. Impaired renal function, pulmonary disease, malignant disease, living in a nursing home, being prescribed an opioid or being prescribed a drug for peptic ulcer or gastroesophageal reflux disease were associated with an increased risk, while being prescribed an antidepressant drug (tricyclic antidepressants not included) was linked to a lower risk of the outcome. These variables made up the components of the 80+ score. The C-statistics were 0.71 (80+), 0.57 (STOPP), 0.54 (START) and 0.63 (MAI). Conclusions We developed and internally validated a score for prediction of risk of rehospitalisation and mortality in hospitalised older people. The score discriminated risk better than available tools for inappropriate prescribing. Pending external validation, this score can aid in clinical identification of high-risk patients and targeting of interventions. PMID:25694461

Risk factors for Apgar score using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Doaa; Frize, Monique; Walker, Robin C

2006-01-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been used in identifying the risk factors for many medical outcomes. In this paper, the risk factors for low Apgar score are introduced. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that the ANNs are used for Apgar score prediction. The medical domain of interest used is the perinatal database provided by the Perinatal Partnership Program of Eastern and Southeastern Ontario (PPPESO). The ability of the feed forward back propagation ANNs to generate strong predictive model with the most influential variables is tested. Finally, minimal sets of variables (risk factors) that are important in predicting Apgar score outcome without degrading the ANN performance are identified.

Polygenic Risk Score, Parental Socioeconomic Status, Family History of Psychiatric Disorders, and the Risk for Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Study and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agerbo, Esben; Sullivan, Patrick F; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Pedersen, Carsten B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Hollegaard, Mads V; Meier, Sandra; Mattheisen, Manuel; Ripke, Stephan; Wray, Naomi R; Mortensen, Preben B

2015-07-01

Schizophrenia has a complex etiology influenced both by genetic and nongenetic factors but disentangling these factors is difficult. To estimate (1) how strongly the risk for schizophrenia relates to the mutual effect of the polygenic risk score, parental socioeconomic status, and family history of psychiatric disorders; (2) the fraction of cases that could be prevented if no one was exposed to these factors; (3) whether family background interacts with an individual's genetic liability so that specific subgroups are particularly risk prone; and (4) to what extent a proband's genetic makeup mediates the risk associated with familial background. We conducted a nested case-control study based on Danish population-based registers. The study consisted of 866 patients diagnosed as having schizophrenia between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 2006, and 871 matched control individuals. Genome-wide data and family psychiatric and socioeconomic background information were obtained from neonatal biobanks and national registers. Results from a separate meta-analysis (34,600 cases and 45,968 control individuals) were applied to calculate polygenic risk scores. Polygenic risk scores, parental socioeconomic status, and family psychiatric history. Odds ratios (ORs), attributable risks, liability R2 values, and proportions mediated. Schizophrenia was associated with the polygenic risk score (OR, 8.01; 95% CI, 4.53-14.16 for highest vs lowest decile), socioeconomic status (OR, 8.10; 95% CI, 3.24-20.3 for 6 vs no exposures), and a history of schizophrenia/psychoses (OR, 4.18; 95% CI, 2.57-6.79). The R2 values were 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for the polygenic risk score, 3.1% (95% CI, 1.9-4.3) for parental socioeconomic status, and 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for family history. Socioeconomic status and psychiatric history accounted for 45.8% (95% CI, 36.1-55.5) and 25.8% (95% CI, 21.2-30.5) of cases, respectively. There was an interaction between the polygenic risk score and family history (P = .03). A total of 17.4% (95% CI, 9.1-26.6) of the effect associated with family history of schizophrenia/psychoses was mediated through the polygenic risk score. Schizophrenia was associated with the polygenic risk score, family psychiatric history, and socioeconomic status. Our study demonstrated that family history of schizophrenia/psychoses is partly mediated through the individual's genetic liability.

External validation of a prehospital risk score for critical illness.

PubMed

Kievlan, Daniel R; Martin-Gill, Christian; Kahn, Jeremy M; Callaway, Clifton W; Yealy, Donald M; Angus, Derek C; Seymour, Christopher W

2016-08-11

Identification of critically ill patients during prehospital care could facilitate early treatment and aid in the regionalization of critical care. Tools to consistently identify those in the field with or at higher risk of developing critical illness do not exist. We sought to validate a prehospital critical illness risk score that uses objective clinical variables in a contemporary cohort of geographically and temporally distinct prehospital encounters. We linked prehospital encounters at 21 emergency medical services (EMS) agencies to inpatient electronic health records at nine hospitals in southwestern Pennsylvania from 2010 to 2012. The primary outcome was critical illness during hospitalization, defined as an intensive care unit stay with delivery of organ support (mechanical ventilation or vasopressor use). We calculated the prehospital risk score using demographics and first vital signs from eligible EMS encounters, and we tested the association between score variables and critical illness using multivariable logistic regression. Discrimination was assessed using the AUROC curve, and calibration was determined by plotting observed versus expected events across score values. Operating characteristics were calculated at score thresholds. Among 42,550 nontrauma, non-cardiac arrest adult EMS patients, 1926 (4.5 %) developed critical illness during hospitalization. We observed moderate discrimination of the prehospital critical illness risk score (AUROC 0.73, 95 % CI 0.72-0.74) and adequate calibration based on observed versus expected plots. At a score threshold of 2, sensitivity was 0.63 (95 % CI 0.61-0.75), specificity was 0.73 (95 % CI 0.72-0.73), negative predictive value was 0.98 (95 % CI 0.98-0.98), and positive predictive value was 0.10 (95 % CI 0.09-0.10). The risk score performance was greater with alternative definitions of critical illness, including in-hospital mortality (AUROC 0.77, 95 % CI 0.7 -0.78). In an external validation cohort, a prehospital risk score using objective clinical data had moderate discrimination for critical illness during hospitalization.

Prognostic Value of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction (from the EPHESUS Trial).

PubMed

Popovic, Batric; Girerd, Nicolas; Rossignol, Patrick; Agrinier, Nelly; Camenzind, Edoardo; Fay, Renaud; Pitt, Bertram; Zannad, Faiez

2016-11-15

The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score remains a robust prediction tool for short-term and midterm outcome in the patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, the validity of this risk score in patients with STEMI with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains unclear. A total of 2,854 patients with STEMI with early coronary revascularization participating in the randomized EPHESUS (Epleronone Post-Acute Myocardial Infarction Heart Failure Efficacy and Survival Study) trial were analyzed. TIMI risk score was calculated at baseline, and its predictive value was evaluated using C-indexes from Cox models. The increase in reclassification of other variables in addition to TIMI score was assessed using the net reclassification index. TIMI risk score had a poor predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality (C-index values at 30 days and 1 year ≤0.67) and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI; C-index values ≤0.60). Among TIMI score items, diabetes/hypertension/angina, heart rate >100 beats/min, and systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg were inconsistently associated with survival, whereas none of the TIMI score items, aside from age, were significantly associated with MI recurrence. Using a constructed predictive model, lower LVEF, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and previous MI were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. The predictive accuracy of this model, which included LVEF and eGFR, was fair for both 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality (C-index values ranging from 0.71 to 0.75). In conclusion, TIMI risk score demonstrates poor discrimination in predicting mortality or recurrent MI in patients with STEMI with reduced LVEF. LVEF and eGFR are major factors that should not be ignored by predictive risk scores in this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A simple risk score identifies individuals at high risk of developing Type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rahman, Mushtaqur; Simmons, Rebecca K; Harding, Anne-Helen; Wareham, Nicholas J; Griffin, Simon J

2008-06-01

Randomized trials have demonstrated that Type 2 diabetes is preventable among high-risk individuals. To date, such individuals have been identified through population screening using the oral glucose tolerance test. To assess whether a risk score comprising only routinely collected non-biochemical parameters was effective in identifying those at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. Population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk). Participants aged 40-79 recruited from UK general practices attended a health check between 1993 and 1998 (n = 25 639) and were followed for a mean of 5 years for diabetes incidence. The Cambridge Diabetes Risk Score was computed for 24 495 individuals with baseline data on age, sex, prescription of steroids and anti-hypertensive medication, family history of diabetes, body mass index and smoking status. We examined the incidence of diabetes across quintiles of the risk score and plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to assess discrimination. There were 323 new cases of diabetes, a cumulative incidence of 2.76/1000 person-years. Those in the top quintile of risk were 22 times more likely to develop diabetes than those in the bottom quintile (odds ratio 22.3; 95% CI: 11.0-45.4). In all, 54% of all clinically incident cases occurred in individuals in the top quintile of risk (risk score > 0.37). The area under the ROC was 74.5%. The risk score is a simple, effective tool for the identification of those at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. Such methods may be more feasible than mass population screening with biochemical tests in defining target populations for prevention programmes.

Influence of bone mineral density measurement on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in postmenopausal Indian women.

PubMed

Daswani, Bhavna; Desai, Meena; Mitra, Sumegha; Gavali, Shubhangi; Patil, Anushree; Kukreja, Subhash; Khatkhatay, M Ikram

2016-03-01

Fracture risk assessment tool® calculations can be performed with or without addition of bone mineral density; however, the impact of this addition on fracture risk assessment tool® scores has not been studied in Indian women. Given the limited availability and high cost of bone mineral density testing in India, it is important to know the influence of bone mineral density on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. Therefore, our aim was to assess the contribution of bone mineral density in fracture risk assessment tool® outcome in Indian women. Apparently healthy postmenopausal Indian women (n = 506), aged 40-72 years, without clinical risk factors for bone disease, were retrospectively selected, and their fracture risk assessment tool® scores calculated with and without bone mineral density were compared. Based on WHO criteria, 30% women were osteoporotic, 42.9% were osteopenic and 27.1% had normal bone mineral density. Fracture risk assessment tool® scores for risk of both major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture significantly increased on including bone mineral density (P < 0.0001). When criteria of National Osteoporosis Foundation, US was applied number of participants eligible for medical therapy increased upon inclusion of bone mineral density, (for major osteoporotic fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 0 and with bone mineral density was 1, P > 0.05, whereas, for hip fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 2 and with bone mineral density was 17, P < 0.0001). Until the establishment of country-specific medication intervention thresholds, bone mineral density should be included while calculating fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. © The Author(s) 2016.

Mild cognitive impairment: baseline and longitudinal structural MR imaging measures improve predictive prognosis.

PubMed

McEvoy, Linda K; Holland, Dominic; Hagler, Donald J; Fennema-Notestine, Christine; Brewer, James B; Dale, Anders M

2011-06-01

To assess whether single-time-point and longitudinal volumetric magnetic resonance (MR) imaging measures provide predictive prognostic information in patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This study was conducted with institutional review board approval and in compliance with HIPAA regulations. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants or the participants' legal guardians. Cross-validated discriminant analyses of MR imaging measures were performed to differentiate 164 Alzheimer disease (AD) cases from 203 healthy control cases. Separate analyses were performed by using data from MR images obtained at one time point or by combining single-time-point measures with 1-year change measures. Resulting discriminant functions were applied to 317 MCI cases to derive individual patient risk scores. Risk of conversion to AD was estimated as a continuous function of risk score percentile. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were computed for risk score quartiles. Odds ratios (ORs) for the conversion to AD were computed between the highest and lowest quartile scores. Individualized risk estimates from baseline MR examinations indicated that the 1-year risk of conversion to AD ranged from 3% to 40% (average group risk, 17%; OR, 7.2 for highest vs lowest score quartiles). Including measures of 1-year change in global and regional volumes significantly improved risk estimates (P = 001), with the risk of conversion to AD in the subsequent year ranging from 3% to 69% (average group risk, 27%; OR, 12.0 for highest vs lowest score quartiles). Relative to the risk of conversion to AD conferred by the clinical diagnosis of MCI alone, MR imaging measures yield substantially more informative patient-specific risk estimates. Such predictive prognostic information will be critical if disease-modifying therapies become available. http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101975/-/DC1. RSNA, 2011

Does Cardiorespiratory Fitness Attenuate the Adverse Effects of Severe/Morbid Obesity on Cardiometabolic Risk and Insulin Resistance in Children? A Pooled Analysis.

PubMed

Nyström, Christine Delisle; Henriksson, Pontus; Martínez-Vizcaíno, Vicente; Medrano, María; Cadenas-Sanchez, Cristina; Arias-Palencia, Natalia María; Löf, Marie; Ruiz, Jonatan R; Labayen, Idoia; Sánchez-López, Mairena; Ortega, Francisco B

2017-11-01

To investigate 1 ) differences in cardiometabolic risk and HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) across BMI categories (underweight to morbid obesity), 2 ) whether fit children have lower cardiometabolic risk/HOMA-IR than unfit children in each BMI category, and 3 ) differences in cardiometabolic risk/HOMA-IR in normal-weight unfit children and obese fit children. A pooled study including cross-sectional data from three projects ( n = 1,247 children aged 8-11 years). Cardiometabolic risk was assessed using the sum of the sex- and age-specific z scores for triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, glucose, and the average of systolic and diastolic blood pressure and HOMA-IR. A significant linear association was observed between the risk score and BMI categories ( P trend ≤0.001), with every incremental rise in BMI category being associated with a 0.5 SD higher risk score (standardized β = 0.474, P < 0.001). A trend was found showing that as BMI categories rose, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) attenuated the risk score, with the biggest differences observed in the most obese children (-0.8 SD); however, this attenuation was significant only in mild obesity (-0.2 SD, P = 0.048). Normal-weight unfit children had a significantly lower risk score than obese fit children ( P < 0.001); however, a significant reduction in the risk score was found in obese fit compared with unfit children (-0.4 SD, P = 0.027). Similar results were obtained for HOMA-IR. As BMI categories rose so did cardiometabolic risk and HOMA-IR, which highlights the need for obesity prevention/treatment programs in childhood. Furthermore, CRF may play an important role in lowering the risk of cardiometabolic diseases in obese children. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System.

PubMed

Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio

2017-01-01

To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure ( P <0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship ( P >0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant ( P <0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

PubMed Central

Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D.; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio

2017-01-01

AIM To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship (P>0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y. PMID:28393027

Counselling pregnant women at the crossroads of Europe and Asia: effect of Teratology Information Service in Turkey.

PubMed

Kaplan, Yusuf Cem; Karadaş, Barış; Küçüksolak, Gözde; Ediz, Bartu; Demir, Ömer; Sozmen, Kaan; Nordeng, Hedvig

2017-08-01

Background Previous studies from western countries demonstrated the effectiveness of Teratology Information Service (TIS) counselling in reducing the teratogenic risk perception of pregnant women. Objective To assess whether TIS counselling would be effective in reducing the teratogenic risk perception of the Turkish pregnant women. Setting A TIS (Terafar) operating in a university hospital in Turkey. Methods A cross-sectional survey study. Pregnant women with non-teratogenic medication exposures were asked to assign scores on visual analogue scales (VAS) in response to the questions aiming to measure their teratogenic risk perception. The mean score before and after counselling were compared and the associations with maternal socio-demographic characteristics were analysed using SPSS (Version 20.0). Main outcome measures The differences in the mean scores of the perception regarding the baseline risk of pregnancy, own teratogenic risk and the likelihood of termination of pregnancy before and after counselling and their possible associations with maternal socio-demographic characteristics. Results 102 pregnant women participated in the study. The counselling significantly reduced the mean own teratogenic risk perception score and the mean score for the likelihood of termination of pregnancy whereas the mean baseline risk perception score was not significantly changed. Pregnancy week <8 and the exposed number of active ingredients <3 were significantly associated with the difference in the mean score for the likelihood of termination of pregnancy. Conclusions TIS counselling lowers the teratogenic risk perception of Turkish pregnant women and increases their likelihood to continue the pregnancy as it does in the western countries.

Inclusion of Endogenous Hormone Levels in Risk Prediction Models of Postmenopausal Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Tworoger, Shelley S.; Zhang, Xuehong; Eliassen, A. Heather; Qian, Jing; Colditz, Graham A.; Willett, Walter C.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Kraft, Peter; Hankinson, Susan E.

2014-01-01

Purpose Endogenous hormones are risk factors for postmenopausal breast cancer, and their measurement may improve our ability to identify high-risk women. Therefore, we evaluated whether inclusion of plasma estradiol, estrone, estrone sulfate, testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, prolactin, and sex hormone–binding globulin (SHBG) improved risk prediction for postmenopausal invasive breast cancer (n = 437 patient cases and n = 775 controls not using postmenopausal hormones) in the Nurses' Health Study. Methods We evaluated improvement in the area under the curve (AUC) for 5-year risk of invasive breast cancer by adding each hormone to the Gail and Rosner-Colditz risk scores. We used stepwise regression to identify the subset of hormones most associated with risk and assessed AUC improvement; we used 10-fold cross validation to assess model overfitting. Results Each hormone was associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio doubling, 0.82 [SHBG] to 1.37 [estrone sulfate]). Individual hormones improved the AUC by 1.3 to 5.2 units relative to the Gail score and 0.3 to 2.9 for the Rosner-Colditz score. Estrone sulfate, testosterone, and prolactin were selected by stepwise regression and increased the AUC by 5.9 units (P = .003) for the Gail score and 3.4 (P = .04) for the Rosner-Colditz score. In cross validation, the average AUC change across the validation data sets was 6.0 (P = .002) and 3.0 units (P = .03), respectively. Similar results were observed for estrogen receptor–positive disease (selected hormones: estrone sulfate, testosterone, prolactin, and SHBG; change in AUC, 8.8 [P < .001] for Gail score and 5.8 [P = .004] for Rosner-Colditz score). Conclusion Our results support that endogenous hormones improve risk prediction for invasive breast cancer and could help identify women who may benefit from chemoprevention or more screening. PMID:25135988

Utility of the HARP Diabetes Risk Calculator in Identifying Patients with Type 2 Diabetes at Risk of Unplanned Hospital Presentations.

PubMed

McGrath, Rachel T; Dryden, Justin C; Newlyn, Neroli; Pamplona, Elline; O'Dea, Judy; Hocking, Samantha L; Glastras, Sarah J; Fulcher, Gregory R

2018-03-31

Prevention of hospitalisation is an important aspect of type 2 diabetes (T2D) management. We retrospectively determined the utility of the Hospital Admission Risk Programme (HARP) Diabetes Risk Calculator (HARP tool) in identifying patients with T2D more likely to have unplanned hospital presentations. The HARP tool includes a clinical assessment score (Part A) and a psychosocial and self-management impact score (Part B), and categorises patients into low, medium, high or urgent risk of acute hospitalisation. It was completed for T2D patients attending Royal North Shore Hospital, Sydney in 2013. Within the cohort of 278 patients (age 65.3 ± 10.5 years; 62.9% male; diabetes duration 10.7 ± 6.6 years), 67.3% were classified as low risk, 32.7% as medium risk and none as high or urgent risk. Following adjustment for confounders, a medium HARP score was associated with a 3.1-fold increased risk of unplanned hospital presentations in the subsequent 12 months (95% CI: 1.35 to 7.31; p = 0.008). Part A scores were significantly higher for patients that presented to hospital compared to those that did not (14.2 ± 6.8 vs. 11.4 ± 5.5; p = 0.034), whereas there was no difference in Part B scores (p = 0.860). In patients with low and medium HARP scores, clinical features were more predictive of hospital presentations than certain psychosocial or self-management factors in the cohort. Further studies are required to characterise unplanned hospitalisation in patients with higher HARP scores, or whether additional psychosocial assessments could improve the tool's predictability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Prognosis Using Mixtures of Gaussian Processes.

PubMed

Alaa, Ahmed M; Yoon, Jinsung; Hu, Scott; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

In this paper, we develop a personalized real-time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs; the proposed risk scoring system ensures timely intensive care unit admissions for clinically deteriorating patients. The risk scoring system is based on the idea of sequential hypothesis testing under an uncertain time horizon. The system learns a set of latent patient subtypes from the offline electronic health record data, and trains a mixture of Gaussian Process experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific patient subtype. Transfer learning techniques are used to learn the relationship between a patient's latent subtype and her static admission information (e.g., age, gender, transfer status, ICD-9 codes, etc). Experiments conducted on data from a heterogeneous cohort of 6321 patients admitted to Ronald Reagan UCLA medical center show that our score significantly outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as the Rothman index, MEWS, APACHE, and SOFA scores, in terms of timeliness, true positive rate, and positive predictive value. Our results reflect the importance of adopting the concepts of personalized medicine in critical care settings; significant accuracy and timeliness gains can be achieved by accounting for the patients' heterogeneity. The proposed risk scoring methodology can confer huge clinical and social benefits on a massive number of critically ill inpatients who exhibit adverse outcomes including, but not limited to, cardiac arrests, respiratory arrests, and septic shocks.

Examining the association of injury with the Functional Movement Screen and Landing Error Scoring System in military recruits undergoing 16 weeks of introductory fitness training.

PubMed

Everard, Eoin; Lyons, Mark; Harrison, Andrew J

2018-06-01

To examine the association of injury with the Functional Movement Screen (FMS) and Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) in military recruits undergoing an intensive 16-week training block. Prospective cohort study. One hundred and thirty-two entry-level male soldiers (18-25years) were tested using the FMS and LESS. The participants underwent an intensive 16-week training program with injury data recorded daily. Chi-squared statistics were used to examine associations between injury risk and (1) poor LESS scores, (2) any score of 1 on the FMS and (3) composite FMS score of ≤14. A composite FMS score of ≤14 was not a significant predictor of injury. LESS scores of >5 and having a score of 1 on any FMS test were significantly associated with injury. LESS scores had greater relative risk, sensitivity and specificity (2.2 (95% CI=1.48-3.34); 71% and 87% respectively) than scores of 1 on the FMS (relative risk=1.32 (95% CI=1.0-1.7); sensitivity=50% and specificity=76%). There was no association between composite FMS score and injury but LESS scores and scores of 1 in the FMS test were significantly associated with injury in varying degrees. LESS scores had a much better association with injury than both any scores of 1 on the FMS and a combination of LESS scores and scores of 1 on the FMS. Furthermore, the LESS provides comparable information related to injury risk as other well-established markers associated with injury such as age, muscular strength and previous injury. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Applying new Magee equations for predicting the Oncotype Dx recurrence score.

PubMed

Sughayer, Maher; Alaaraj, Rolla; Alsughayer, Ahmad

2018-04-24

Breast cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in women. Oncotype Dx is a multi-gene assay frequently used to predict the recurrence risk for estrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer, with values < 18 considered low risk; ≥ 18 and ≤ 30, intermediate risk; and > 30, high risk. Patients at a high risk for recurrence are more likely to benefit from chemotherapy treatment. In this study, clinicopathological parameters for 37 cases of early breast cancer with available Oncotype Dx results were used to estimate the recurrence score using the three new Magee equations. Correlation studies with Oncotype Dx results were performed. Applying the same cutoff points as Oncotype Dx, patients were categorized into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups according to their estimated recurrence scores. Pearson correlation coefficient (R) values between estimated and actual recurrence score were 0.73, 0.66, and 0.70 for Magee equations 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The concordance values between actual and estimated recurrence scores were 57.6%, 52.9%, and 57.6% for Magee equations 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Using standard pathologic measures and immunohistochemistry scores in these three linear Magee equations, most low and high recurrence risk cases can be predicted with a strong positive correlation coefficient, high concordance and negligible two-step discordance. Magee equations are user-friendly and can be used to predict the recurrence score in early breast cancer cases.

Polygenic risk predicts obesity in both white and black young adults.

PubMed

Domingue, Benjamin W; Belsky, Daniel W; Harris, Kathleen Mullan; Smolen, Andrew; McQueen, Matthew B; Boardman, Jason D

2014-01-01

To test transethnic replication of a genetic risk score for obesity in white and black young adults using a national sample with longitudinal data. A prospective longitudinal study using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health Sibling Pairs (n = 1,303). Obesity phenotypes were measured from anthropometric assessments when study members were aged 18-26 and again when they were 24-32. Genetic risk scores were computed based on published genome-wide association study discoveries for obesity. Analyses tested genetic associations with body-mass index (BMI), waist-height ratio, obesity, and change in BMI over time. White and black young adults with higher genetic risk scores had higher BMI and waist-height ratio and were more likely to be obese compared to lower genetic risk age-peers. Sibling analyses revealed that the genetic risk score was predictive of BMI net of risk factors shared by siblings. In white young adults only, higher genetic risk predicted increased risk of becoming obese during the study period. In black young adults, genetic risk scores constructed using loci identified in European and African American samples had similar predictive power. Cumulative information across the human genome can be used to characterize individual level risk for obesity. Measured genetic risk accounts for only a small amount of total variation in BMI among white and black young adults. Future research is needed to identify modifiable environmental exposures that amplify or mitigate genetic risk for elevated BMI.

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

PubMed Central

Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond

2016-01-01

“Big data” and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of “perfect” risk scoring under a given contract. PMID:27429712

Depressive Affect and Hospitalization Risk in Incident Hemodialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Bruce, Lisa; Li, Nien-Chen; Mooney, Ann; Maddux, Franklin W.

2014-01-01

Background and objectives Recent studies demonstrated an association between depressive affect and higher mortality risk in incident hemodialysis patients. This study sought to determine whether an association also exists with hospitalization risk. Design, setting, participants, & measurements All 8776 adult incident hemodialysis patients with Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 survey results treated in Fresenius Medical Care North America facilities in 2006 were followed for 1 year from the date of survey, and all hospitalization events lasting >24 hours were tracked. A depressive affect score was derived from responses to two Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 questions (“down in the dumps” and “downhearted and blue”). A high depressive affect score corresponded with an average response of “some of the time” or more frequent occurrence. Cox and Poisson models were constructed to determine associations of depressive affect scores with risk for time to first hospitalization and risk for hospitalization events, as well as total days spent in the hospital, respectively. Results Incident patients with high depressive affect score made up 41% of the cohort and had a median (interquartile range) hospitalization event rate of one (0, 3) and 4 (0, 15) total hospital days; the values for patients with low depressive affect scores were one (0, 2) event and 2 (0, 11) days, respectively. For high-scoring patients, the adjusted hazard ratio for first hospitalization was 1.12 (1.04, 1.20). When multiple hospital events were considered, the adjusted risk ratio was 1.13 (1.02, 1.25) and the corresponding risk ratio for total hospital days was 1.20 (1.07, 1.35). High depressive affect score was generally associated with lower physical and mental component scores, but these covariates were adjusted for in the models. Conclusions Depressive affect in incident hemodialysis patients was associated with higher risk of hospitalization and more hospital days. Future studies are needed to investigate the effect of therapeutic interventions to address depressive affect in this high-risk population. PMID:25278546

Lung cancer in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Development and validation of the COPD Lung Cancer Screening Score.

PubMed

de-Torres, Juan P; Wilson, David O; Sanchez-Salcedo, Pablo; Weissfeld, Joel L; Berto, Juan; Campo, Arantzazu; Alcaide, Ana B; García-Granero, Marta; Celli, Bartolome R; Zulueta, Javier J

2015-02-01

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at high risk for lung cancer (LC) and represent a potential target to improve the diagnostic yield of screening programs. To develop a predictive score for LC risk for patients with COPD. The Pamplona International Early Lung Cancer Detection Program (P-IELCAP) and the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) databases were analyzed. Only patients with COPD on spirometry were included. By logistic regression we determined which factors were independently associated with LC in PLuSS and developed a COPD LC screening score (COPD-LUCSS) to be validated in P-IELCAP. By regression analysis, age greater than 60, body mass index less than 25 kg/m(2), pack-years history greater than 60, and emphysema presence were independently associated with LC diagnosis and integrated into the COPD-LUCSS, which ranges from 0 to 10 points. Two COPD-LUCSS risk categories were proposed: low risk (scores 0-6) and high risk (scores 7-10). In comparison with low-risk patients, in both cohorts LC risk increased 3.5-fold in the high-risk category. The COPD-LUCSS is a good predictor of LC risk in patients with COPD participating in LC screening programs. Validation in two different populations adds strength to the findings.

Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

PubMed

Elledge, Julie

2017-12-01

As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

Longitudinal associations between BMI, waist circumference, and cardiometabolic risk in US youth: monitoring implications.

PubMed

Jago, R; Mendoza, J A; Chen, T; Baranowski, T

2013-03-01

This study examined whether change in body mass index (BMI) or waist circumference (WC) is associated with change in cardiometabolic risk factors and differences between cardiovascular disease specific and diabetes specific risk factors among adolescents. We also sought to examine any differences by gender or baseline body mass status. The article is a longitudinal analysis of pre- and post-data collected in the HEALTHY trial. Participants were 4,603 ethnically diverse adolescents who provided complete data at 6th and 8th grade assessments. The main outcome measures were percent change in the following cardiometabolic risk factors: fasting triglycerides, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose as well as a clustered metabolic risk score. Main exposures were change in BMI or WC z-score. Models were run stratified by gender; secondary models were additionally stratified by baseline BMI group (normal, overweight, or obese). Analysis showed that when cardiometabolic risk factors were treated as continuous variables, there was strong evidence (P < 0.001) that change in BMI z-score was associated with change in the majority of the cardiovascular risk factors, except fasting glucose and the combined risk factor score for both boys and girls. There was some evidence that change in WC z-score was associated with some cardiovascular risk factors, but change in WC z-score was consistently associated with changes in fasting glucose. In conclusion, routine monitoring of BMI should be continued by health professionals, but additional information on disease risk may be provided by assessing WC. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

PubMed

White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

2015-09-01

Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study

PubMed Central

Lip, Gregory Y H; Hansen, Morten Lock; Hansen, Peter Riis; Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Ahlehoff, Ole; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2011-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age≥75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA2DS2-VASc (CHA2DS2-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Design Registry based cohort study. Setting Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Main outcome measures Stroke and thromboembolism. Results Of 121 280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73 538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at “low risk” (score=0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS2 and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA2DS2-VASc at one year’s follow-up. In patients at “intermediate risk” (score=1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS2 and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA2DS2-VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years’ follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS2 and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA2DS2-VASc. Conclusions The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA2DS2-VASc performed better than CHADS2 in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA2DS2-VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism. PMID:21282258

Validation of the Retinal Detachment after Open Globe Injury (RD-OGI) Score as an Effective Tool for Predicting Retinal Detachment.

PubMed

Brodowska, Katarzyna; Stryjewski, Tomasz P; Papavasileiou, Evangelia; Chee, Yewlin E; Eliott, Dean

2017-05-01

The Retinal Detachment after Open Globe Injury (RD-OGI) Score is a clinical prediction model that was developed at the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary to predict the risk of retinal detachment (RD) after open globe injury (OGI). This study sought to validate the RD-OGI Score in an independent cohort of patients. Retrospective cohort study. The predictive value of the RD-OGI Score was evaluated by comparing the original RD-OGI Scores of 893 eyes with OGI that presented between 1999 and 2011 (the derivation cohort) with 184 eyes with OGI that presented from January 1, 2012, to January 31, 2014 (the validation cohort). Three risk classes (low, moderate, and high) were created and logistic regression was undertaken to evaluate the optimal predictive value of the RD-OGI Score. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis evaluated survival experience between the risk classes. Time to RD. At 1 year after OGI, 255 eyes (29%) in the derivation cohort and 66 eyes (36%) in the validation cohort were diagnosed with an RD. At 1 year, the low risk class (RD-OGI Scores 0-2) had a 3% detachment rate in the derivation cohort and a 0% detachment rate in the validation cohort, the moderate risk class (RD-OGI Scores 2.5-4.5) had a 29% detachment rate in the derivation cohort and a 35% detachment rate in the validation cohort, and the high risk class (RD-OGI scores 5-7.5) had a 73% detachment rate in the derivation cohort and an 86% detachment rate in the validation cohort. Regression modeling revealed the RD-OGI to be highly discriminative, especially 30 days after injury, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.939 in the validation cohort. Survival experience was significantly different depending upon the risk class (P < 0.0001, log-rank chi-square). The RD-OGI Score can reliably predict the future risk of developing an RD based on clinical variables that are present at the time of the initial evaluation after OGI. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

2014-01-01

In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

Coronary Risk Factor Scoring as a Guide for Counseling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleck, R. L.

1971-01-01

A risk factor scoring system for early detection, possible prediction, and counseling to coronary heart disease patients is discussed. Scoring data include dynamic EKG, cholesterol levels, triglycerine content, total lipid level, total phospolipid levels, and electrophoretic patterns. Results indicate such a system is effective in identifying high risk subjects, but that the ability to predict exceeds the ability to prevent heart disease or its complications.

Use of the Animal Trauma Triage Score, RibScore, Modified RibScore and Other Clinical Factors for Prognostication in Canine Rib Fractures.

PubMed

McCarthy, Daniel; Bacek, Lenore; Kim, Kyoung; Miller, George; Gaillard, Philippe; Kuo, Kendon

2018-06-11

 To characterize the clinical features among dogs sustaining rib fractures and to determine if age, type and severity of injury, entry blood lactate, trauma score and rib fracture score were associated with outcome.  A retrospective study was performed to include dogs that were presented with rib fractures. Risk factors evaluation included breed, age, body weight, diagnosis, presence of a flail chest, bandage use, puncture wound presence, rib fracture number, location of the fracture along the thoracic wall, hospital stay length, body weight, other fractures, pleural effusion, pulmonary contusions, pneumothorax and occurrence of an anaesthetic event. A retrospective calculation of an animal trauma triage (ATT) score, RibScore and Modified RibScore was assigned.  Forty-one medical records were collected. Motor vehicular trauma represented 56% of the rib fracture aetiology, 41% of patients sustained dog bites and one case was of an unknown aetiology. Significant correlations with risk factors were found only with the ATT score. All patients that died had an ATT score ≥ 5. The ATT score correlated positively with mortality ( p  < 0.05) with an ATT score ≥ 7 was 88% sensitive and 81% specific for predicting mortality. A 1-point increase in ATT score corresponded to 2.1 times decreased likelihood of survival. Mean hospital stay was 3 days longer for dog bite cases.  There was no increased mortality rate in canine patients that presented with the suspected risk factors. The only risk factor that predicted mortality was the ATT score. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Early sex differences are not autism-specific: A Baby Siblings Research Consortium (BSRC) study.

PubMed

Messinger, Daniel S; Young, Gregory S; Webb, Sara Jane; Ozonoff, Sally; Bryson, Susan E; Carter, Alice; Carver, Leslie; Charman, Tony; Chawarska, Katarzyna; Curtin, Suzanne; Dobkins, Karen; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva; Hutman, Ted; Iverson, Jana M; Landa, Rebecca; Nelson, Charles A; Stone, Wendy L; Tager-Flusberg, Helen; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie

2015-01-01

The increased male prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may be mirrored by the early emergence of sex differences in ASD symptoms and cognitive functioning. The female protective effect hypothesis posits that ASD recurrence and symptoms will be higher among relatives of female probands. This study examined sex differences and sex of proband differences in ASD outcome and in the development of ASD symptoms and cognitive functioning among the high-risk younger siblings of ASD probands and low-risk children. Prior to 18 months of age, 1824 infants (1241 high-risk siblings, 583 low-risk) from 15 sites were recruited. Hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) analyses of younger sibling and proband sex differences in ASD recurrence among high-risk siblings were followed by HGLM analyses of sex differences and group differences (high-risk ASD, high-risk non-ASD, and low-risk) on the Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL) subscales (Expressive and Receptive Language, Fine Motor, and Visual Reception) at 18, 24, and 36 months and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) domain scores (social affect (SA) and restricted and repetitive behaviors (RRB)) at 24 and 36 months. Of 1241 high-risk siblings, 252 had ASD outcomes. Male recurrence was 26.7 % and female recurrence 10.3 %, with a 3.18 odds ratio. The HR-ASD group had lower MSEL subscale scores and higher RRB and SA scores than the HR non-ASD group, which had lower MSEL subscale scores and higher RRB scores than the LR group. Regardless of group, males obtained lower MSEL subscale scores, and higher ADOS RRB scores, than females. There were, however, no significant interactions between sex and group on either the MSEL or ADOS. Proband sex did not affect ASD outcome, MSEL subscale, or ADOS domain scores. A 3.2:1 male:female odds ratio emerged among a large sample of prospectively followed high-risk siblings. Sex differences in cognitive performance and repetitive behaviors were apparent not only in high-risk children with ASD, but also in high-risk children without ASD and in low-risk children. Sex differences in young children with ASD do not appear to be ASD-specific but instead reflect typically occurring sex differences seen in children without ASD. Results did not support a female protective effect hypothesis.

The Zhongshan score: a novel and simple anatomic classification system to predict perioperative outcomes of nephron-sparing surgery.

PubMed

Zhou, Lin; Guo, Jianming; Wang, Hang; Wang, Guomin

2015-02-01

In the zero ischemia era of nephron-sparing surgery (NSS), a new anatomic classification system (ACS) is needed to adjust to these new surgical techniques. We devised a novel and simple ACS, and compared it with the RENAL and PADUA scores to predict the risk of NSS outcomes. We retrospectively evaluated 789 patients who underwent NSS with available imaging between January 2007 and July 2014. Demographic and clinical data were assessed. The Zhongshan (ZS) score consisted of three parameters. RENAL, PADUA, and ZS scores are divided into three groups, that is, high, moderate, and low scores. For operative time (OT), significant differences were seen between any two groups of ZS score and PADUA score (all P < 0.05). For ZS score, patients with moderate and high scores had longer warm ischemia time (WIT) and greater increase in SCr compared with low score (all P < 0.05). What is more, the differences between moderate and high scores classified by ZS score were borderline but trending toward significance in WIT (P = 0.064) and increase in SCr (P = 0.052). Interestingly, RENAL showed no significant difference between moderate and high complexity in OT, WIT, estimated blood loss, and increase in SCr. Compared with patients with a low score of ZS, those with a high or moderate score had 8.1-fold or 3.3-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). As for RENAL score, patients with a high or moderate score had 5.7-fold or 1.9-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). Patients with a high or moderate score of PADUA had 2.3-fold or 2.8-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). In the ROC curve analysis, ZS score had the greatest AUC for surgical complications (AUC = 0.632) and the conversion to radical nephrectomy (AUC = 0.845) (all P < 0.05). In conclusion, the ability of ZS score to predict the surgical complexity and surgical complications of NSS is better than RENAL and PADUA scores. ZS score could be used to reflect the surgical complexity and predict the risk of surgical complications in patients undergoing NSS.

The Zhongshan Score

PubMed Central

Zhou, Lin; Guo, Jianming; Wang, Hang; Wang, Guomin

2015-01-01

Abstract In the zero ischemia era of nephron-sparing surgery (NSS), a new anatomic classification system (ACS) is needed to adjust to these new surgical techniques. We devised a novel and simple ACS, and compared it with the RENAL and PADUA scores to predict the risk of NSS outcomes. We retrospectively evaluated 789 patients who underwent NSS with available imaging between January 2007 and July 2014. Demographic and clinical data were assessed. The Zhongshan (ZS) score consisted of three parameters. RENAL, PADUA, and ZS scores are divided into three groups, that is, high, moderate, and low scores. For operative time (OT), significant differences were seen between any two groups of ZS score and PADUA score (all P < 0.05). For ZS score, patients with moderate and high scores had longer warm ischemia time (WIT) and greater increase in SCr compared with low score (all P < 0.05). What is more, the differences between moderate and high scores classified by ZS score were borderline but trending toward significance in WIT (P = 0.064) and increase in SCr (P = 0.052). Interestingly, RENAL showed no significant difference between moderate and high complexity in OT, WIT, estimated blood loss, and increase in SCr. Compared with patients with a low score of ZS, those with a high or moderate score had 8.1-fold or 3.3-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). As for RENAL score, patients with a high or moderate score had 5.7-fold or 1.9-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). Patients with a high or moderate score of PADUA had 2.3-fold or 2.8-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). In the ROC curve analysis, ZS score had the greatest AUC for surgical complications (AUC = 0.632) and the conversion to radical nephrectomy (AUC = 0.845) (all P < 0.05). In conclusion, the ability of ZS score to predict the surgical complexity and surgical complications of NSS is better than RENAL and PADUA scores. ZS score could be used to reflect the surgical complexity and predict the risk of surgical complications in patients undergoing NSS. PMID:25654399

Risk factors for the treatment outcome of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients in China: an optimized prediction model.

PubMed

Wang, X-M; Yin, S-H; Du, J; Du, M-L; Wang, P-Y; Wu, J; Horbinski, C M; Wu, M-J; Zheng, H-Q; Xu, X-Q; Shu, W; Zhang, Y-J

2017-07-01

Retreatment of tuberculosis (TB) often fails in China, yet the risk factors associated with the failure remain unclear. To identify risk factors for the treatment failure of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients, we analyzed the data of 395 retreated PTB patients who received retreatment between July 2009 and July 2011 in China. PTB patients were categorized into 'success' and 'failure' groups by their treatment outcome. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between treatment outcome and socio-demographic as well as clinical factors. We also created an optimized risk score model to evaluate the predictive values of these risk factors on treatment failure. Of 395 patients, 99 (25·1%) were diagnosed as retreatment failure. Our results showed that risk factors associated with treatment failure included drug resistance, low education level, low body mass index (6 months), standard treatment regimen, retreatment type, positive culture result after 2 months of treatment, and the place where the first medicine was taken. An Optimized Framingham risk model was then used to calculate the risk scores of these factors. Place where first medicine was taken (temporary living places) received a score of 6, which was highest among all the factors. The predicted probability of treatment failure increases as risk score increases. Ten out of 359 patients had a risk score >9, which corresponded to an estimated probability of treatment failure >70%. In conclusion, we have identified multiple clinical and socio-demographic factors that are associated with treatment failure of retreated PTB patients. We also created an optimized risk score model that was effective in predicting the retreatment failure. These results provide novel insights for the prognosis and improvement of treatment for retreated PTB patients.

Genetic Predisposition to Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Kamatani, Yoichiro; Takahashi, Atsushi; Hata, Jun; Furukawa, Ryohei; Shiwa, Yuh; Yamaji, Taiki; Hara, Megumi; Tanno, Kozo; Ohmomo, Hideki; Ono, Kanako; Takashima, Naoyuki; Matsuda, Koichi; Wakai, Kenji; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Ago, Tetsuro; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Fukushima, Akimune; Hozawa, Atsushi; Minegishi, Naoko; Satoh, Mamoru; Endo, Ryujin; Sasaki, Makoto; Sakata, Kiyomi; Kobayashi, Seiichiro; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Hitomi, Jiro; Kita, Yoshikuni; Tanaka, Keitaro; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitazono, Takanari; Kubo, Michiaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Sobue, Kenji; Shimizu, Atsushi

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose— The prediction of genetic predispositions to ischemic stroke (IS) may allow the identification of individuals at elevated risk and thereby prevent IS in clinical practice. Previously developed weighted multilocus genetic risk scores showed limited predictive ability for IS. Here, we investigated the predictive ability of a newer method, polygenic risk score (polyGRS), based on the idea that a few strong signals, as well as several weaker signals, can be collectively informative to determine IS risk. Methods— We genotyped 13 214 Japanese individuals with IS and 26 470 controls (derivation samples) and generated both multilocus genetic risk scores and polyGRS, using the same derivation data set. The predictive abilities of each scoring system were then assessed using 2 independent sets of Japanese samples (KyushuU and JPJM data sets). Results— In both validation data sets, polyGRS was shown to be significantly associated with IS, but weighted multilocus genetic risk scores was not. Comparing the highest with the lowest polyGRS quintile, the odds ratios for IS were 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.33–2.31) and 1.99 (95% confidence interval, 1.19–3.33) in the KyushuU and JPJM samples, respectively. Using the KyushuU samples, the addition of polyGRS to a nongenetic risk model resulted in a significant improvement of the predictive ability (net reclassification improvement=0.151; P<0.001). Conclusions— The polyGRS was shown to be superior to weighted multilocus genetic risk scores as an IS prediction model. Thus, together with the nongenetic risk factors, polyGRS will provide valuable information for individual risk assessment and management of modifiable risk factors. PMID:28034966

Risk score for peri-interventional complications of carotid artery stenting.

PubMed

Hofmann, Robert; Niessner, Alexander; Kypta, Alexander; Steinwender, Clemens; Kammler, Jürgen; Kerschner, Klaus; Grund, Michael; Leisch, Franz; Huber, Kurt

2006-10-01

Routinely available independent risk factors for the peri-interventional outcome of patients undergoing elective carotid artery stenting (CAS) are lacking. The rationale of the study was to create a risk score identifying high-risk patients. We prospectively enrolled 606 consecutive patients assigned to CAS at a secondary care hospital. Various biochemical, clinical, and lesion-related risk factors were prospectively defined. The primary end point reflecting periprocedural complications encompassed minor and major stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality within 30 days. Three percent of patients (n=18) experienced a nonfatal minor (n=13) or major (n=5) stroke. 1.3% of patients (n=8) died from fatal stroke (n=4) or other causes (n=4). No myocardial infarction was observed within 30 days after stenting. Multivariable analysis revealed diabetes mellitus with inadequate glycemic control (HbA1c > 7%), age > or = 80 years, ulceration of the carotid artery stenosis, and a contralateral stenosis > or = 50% as independent risk factors. A risk score formed with these variables showed a superior predictive value (C-statistic = 0.73) compared with single risk factors. The presence of 2 or more of these risk factors identified patients with a risk of 11% for a periprocedural complication compared with 2% in patients with a score of 0 or 1. In patients undergoing elective CAS, a risk score based on routinely accessible variables was able to identify patients at high-risk for atherothrombotic events and all-cause death within 30 days after the intervention.

In extremely preterm infants, do the Movement Assessment of Infants and the Alberta Infant Motor Scale predict 18-month outcomes using the Bayley-III?

PubMed

Lefebvre, Francine; Gagnon, Marie-Michèle; Luu, Thuy Mai; Lupien, Geneviève; Dorval, Véronique

2016-03-01

Extremely preterm infants are at high-risk for neurodevelopmental disabilities. The Movement Assessment of Infants (MAI) and the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) have been designed to predict outcome with modest accuracy with the Bayley-I or Bayley-II. To examine and compare the predictive validity of the MAI and AIMS in determining neurodevelopmental outcome with the Bayley-III. Retrospective cohort study of 160 infants born at ≤ 28 weeks gestation. At their corrected age, infants underwent the MAI at 4 months, the AIMS at 4 and 10-12 months, and the Bayley-III and neurological examination at 18 months. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated. Infants had a mean gestation of 26.3 ± 1.4 weeks and birth weight of 906 ± 207 g. A high-risk score (≥ 14) for adverse outcome was obtained by 57% of infants on the MAI. On the AIMS, a high-risk score (<5th percentile) was obtained by 56% at 4 months and 30% at 10-12 months. At 18 months, infants with low-risk scores on either the MAI or AIMS had higher cognitive, language, and motor Bayley-III scores than those with high-risk scores. They were less likely to have severe neurodevelopmental impairment. To predict Bayley-III scores <70, sensitivity and specificity were 91% and 49%, respectively, for the MAI and 78% and 48%, respectively, for the AIMS. Extremely preterm infants with low-risk MAI at 4 months or AIMS scores at 4 or 10-12 months had better outcomes than those with high-risk scores. However, both tests lack specificity to predict individual neurodevelopmental status at 18 months. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short Berg Balance Scale, BBS-9, as a predictor of fall risk among the aged: a prospective 12-month follow-up study.

PubMed

Hohtari-Kivimäki, Ulla; Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa

2013-12-01

The aim of this study was to assess the adequacy of the short, 9-item Berg Balance Scale (BBS-9) to predict fall risk among the community-dwelling aged. The subjects (n = 519) were derived from the participants in a multifactorial fall prevention intervention conducted in Pori, Finland. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the cut-off score for BBS-9 (range 0-36) to classify aged people with a fall risk during a 12-month follow-up. Logistic regression was used to analyse the relationship of potential confounders with fall risk. The association between the cut-off score for BBS-9 and fall risk was tested using the Chi-square test. In determining the cut-off score of BBS-9 to classify fall risk, the highest sensitivity (0.51) and specificity (0.57) (when both presumed to be above 0.50) sum score was within the limit range 32 scores or below. The area under curve (AUC) was significantly better in the model adjusted for significant confounders (vision and the number of regularly used drugs) (AUC = 0.64) than in the unadjusted model (AUC = 0.57) (p = 0.045). Among patients who scored 32 or below in BBS-9 the incidence of multiple falls was 20.0 %, whereas among those who scored 33-36 it was 15.7 %. BBS-9 with the cut-off score of 32/33 together with data on vision and the number of regularly used drugs predicted moderately the risk of falling among the community-dwelling aged.

Validation of a Simple Score to Determine Risk of Early Rejection After Pediatric Heart Transplantation.

PubMed

Butts, Ryan J; Savage, Andrew J; Atz, Andrew M; Heal, Elisabeth M; Burnette, Ali L; Kavarana, Minoo M; Bradley, Scott M; Chowdhury, Shahryar M

2015-09-01

This study aimed to develop a reliable and feasible score to assess the risk of rejection in pediatric heart transplantation recipients during the first post-transplant year. The first post-transplant year is the most likely time for rejection to occur in pediatric heart transplantation. Rejection during this period is associated with worse outcomes. The United Network for Organ Sharing database was queried for pediatric patients (age <18 years) who underwent isolated orthotopic heart transplantation from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2012. Transplantations were divided into a derivation cohort (n = 2,686) and a validation (n = 509) cohort. The validation cohort was randomly selected from 20% of transplantations from 2005 to 2012. Covariates found to be associated with rejection (p < 0.2) were included in the initial multivariable logistic regression model. The final model was derived by including only variables independently associated with rejection. A risk score was then developed using relative magnitudes of the covariates' odds ratio. The score was then tested in the validation cohort. A 9-point risk score using 3 variables (age, cardiac diagnosis, and panel reactive antibody) was developed. Mean score in the derivation and validation cohorts were 4.5 ± 2.6 and 4.8 ± 2.7, respectively. A higher score was associated with an increased rate of rejection (score = 0, 10.6% in the validation cohort vs. score = 9, 40%; p < 0.01). In weighted regression analysis, the model-predicted risk of rejection correlated closely with the actual rates of rejection in the validation cohort (R(2) = 0.86; p < 0.01). The rejection score is accurate in determining the risk of early rejection in pediatric heart transplantation recipients. The score has the potential to be used in clinical practice to aid in determining the immunosuppressant regimen and the frequency of rejection surveillance in the first post-transplant year. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification on the basis of Deauville score on PET-CT and the presence of Epstein-Barr virus DNA after completion of primary treatment for extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type: a multicentre, retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Seok Jin; Choi, Joon Young; Hyun, Seung Hyup; Ki, Chang-Seok; Oh, Dongryul; Ahn, Yong Chan; Ko, Young Hyeh; Choi, Sunkyu; Jung, Sin-Ho; Khong, Pek-Lan; Tang, Tiffany; Yan, Xuexian; Lim, Soon Thye; Kwong, Yok-Lam; Kim, Won Seog

2015-02-01

Assessment of tumour viability after treatment is essential for prediction of treatment failure in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTL). We aimed to assess the use of the post-treatment Deauville score on PET-CT and Epstein-Barr virus DNA as a predictor of residual tumour, to establish the risk of treatment failure in patients with newly diagnosed ENKTL. In a retrospective analysis of patient data we assessed the prognostic relevance of the Deauville score (five-point scale) on PET-CT and circulating Epstein-Barr virus DNA after completion of treatment in consecutive patients with ENKTL who met eligibility criteria (newly diagnosed and received non-anthracycline-based chemotherapy, concurrent chemoradiotherapy, or both together) diagnosed at the Samsung Medical Center in Seoul, South Korea. The primary aim was to assess the association between progression-free survival and risk stratification based on post-treatment Deauville score and Epstein-Barr virus DNA. With an independent cohort from two different hospitals (Hong Kong and Singapore), we validated the prognostic value of our risk model. We included 102 patients diagnosed with ENKTL between Jan 6, 2005, and Nov 18, 2013, in the study cohort, and 38 patients diagnosed with ENKTL between Jan 7, 2009, and June 27, 2013, in the validation cohort. In the study cohort after a median follow-up of 47·2 months (IQR 30·0-65·5), 45 (44%) patients had treatment failure and 33 (32%) had died. Post-treatment Deauville score and Epstein-Barr virus DNA positivity were independently associated with progression-free and overall survival in the multivariable analysis (for post-treatment Deauville score of 3-4, progression-free survival hazard ratio [HR] 3·607, 95% CI 1·772-7·341, univariable p<0·0001; for post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus DNA positivity, progression-free survival HR 3·595, 95% CI 1·598-8·089, univariable p<0·0001). We stratified patients into three groups based on risk of treatment failure: a low-risk group (post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus negativity and post-treatment Deauville score of 1-2), a high-risk group (post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus negativity with a Deauville score 3-4, or post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus positivity with a Deauville score 1-2), and treatment failure (Deauville score of 5 or post-treatment Epstein-Barr positivity with a Deauville of score 3-4). This risk model showed a significant association with progression-free survival (for low risk vs high risk, HR 7·761, 95% CI 2·592-23·233, p<0·0001; for low risk vs failure, HR 18·546, 95% CI 5·997-57·353, p<0·0001). The validation cohort showed the same associations (for low risk vs high risk, HR 22·909, 95% CI 2·850-184·162, p=0·003; for low risk vs failure, HR 50·652, 95% CI 6·114-419·610, p<0·0001). Post-treatment Deauville score on PET-CT scan and the presence of Epstein-Barr virus DNA can predict the risk of treatment failure in patients with ENKTL. Our results might be able to help guide clinical practice. Samsung Biomedical Research Institute. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Piazza, Nicolo; Wenaweser, Peter; van Gameren, Menno; Pilgrim, Thomas; Tzikas, Apostolos; Tsikas, Apostolos; Otten, Amber; Nuis, Rutger; Onuma, Yoshinobu; Cheng, Jin Ming; Kappetein, A Pieter; Boersma, Eric; Juni, Peter; de Jaegere, Peter; Windecker, Stephan; Serruys, Patrick W

2010-02-01

Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or "inoperable" patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% +/- 13.9% vs STS 6.7% +/- 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES > or =15%, 16% had an STS > or =10%, and 40% had an LES > or =20% or STS > or =10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts.

PubMed

Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Dégano, Irene R; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume

2018-04-01

To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P < .001 in both sexes and with all functions). The area under the ROC curve with the original SCORE was 0.68 in men and 0.69 in women. All versions of the SCORE functions available in Spain significantly overestimate the cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Validation of Predictors of Fall Events in Hospitalized Patients With Cancer.

PubMed

Weed-Pfaff, Samantha H; Nutter, Benjamin; Bena, James F; Forney, Jennifer; Field, Rosemary; Szoka, Lynn; Karius, Diana; Akins, Patti; Colvin, Christina M; Albert, Nancy M

2016-10-01

A seven-item cancer-specific fall risk tool (Cleveland Clinic Capone-Albert [CC-CA] Fall Risk Score) was shown to have a strong concordance index for predicting falls; however, validation of the model is needed. The aims of this study were to validate that the CC-CA Fall Risk Score, made up of six factors, predicts falls in patients with cancer and to determine if the CC-CA Fall Risk Score performs better than the Morse Fall Tool. Using a prospective, comparative methodology, data were collected from electronic health records of patients hospitalized for cancer care in four hospitals. Risk factors from each tool were recorded, when applicable. Multivariable models were created to predict the probability of a fall. A concordance index for each fall tool was calculated. The CC-CA Fall Risk Score provided higher discrimination than the Morse Fall Tool in predicting fall events in patients hospitalized for cancer management.

Evaluation of prenatal risk factors for prediction of outcome in right heart lesions: CVP score in fetal right heart defects.

PubMed

Neves, Ana Luisa; Mathias, Leigh; Wilhm, Marilyn; Leshko, Jennifer; Linask, Kersti K; Henriques-Coelho, Tiago; Areias, José C; Huhta, James C

2014-09-01

To determine the prenatal variables predicting the risk of perinatal death in congenital right heart defects. Retrospective analysis of 28 fetuses with right heart defects was performed. Logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain odds ratios (OR) for the relationship between the risk of death and echocardiographic parameters. The parameters that correlated with the outcome were incorporated in an attempt to devise a disease-specific cardiovascular profile score. Fetal echocardiograms (143) from 28 patients were analyzed. The cardiovascular profile score predicted the risk of death. A lower right ventricle (RV) pressure was associated with mortality (OR 0.959; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.940-0.978). Higher peak aortic velocity through the aortic valve (OR 0.104; 95% CI 0.020-0.529) was associated with a better outcome. These cardiac function parameters were incorporated in a modified disease-specific CVP Score. Patients with a mean modified cardiovascular profile score of ≤ 6 were over 3.7 times more likely to die than those with scores of 7-10. The original Cardiovascular Profile Score predicted the risk of death in right heart defects. The modified score was not validated as a good prediction tool by this study. Fetal RV pressure estimate and peak aortic velocity can be used as independent prognostic predictors.

Simple Scoring System to Predict In-Hospital Mortality After Surgery for Infective Endocarditis.

PubMed

Gatti, Giuseppe; Perrotti, Andrea; Obadia, Jean-François; Duval, Xavier; Iung, Bernard; Alla, François; Chirouze, Catherine; Selton-Suty, Christine; Hoen, Bruno; Sinagra, Gianfranco; Delahaye, François; Tattevin, Pierre; Le Moing, Vincent; Pappalardo, Aniello; Chocron, Sidney

2017-07-20

Aspecific scoring systems are used to predict the risk of death postsurgery in patients with infective endocarditis (IE). The purpose of the present study was both to analyze the risk factors for in-hospital death, which complicates surgery for IE, and to create a mortality risk score based on the results of this analysis. Outcomes of 361 consecutive patients (mean age, 59.1±15.4 years) who had undergone surgery for IE in 8 European centers of cardiac surgery were recorded prospectively, and a risk factor analysis (multivariable logistic regression) for in-hospital death was performed. The discriminatory power of a new predictive scoring system was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Score validation procedures were carried out. Fifty-six (15.5%) patients died postsurgery. BMI >27 kg/m 2 (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; P =0.049), estimated glomerular filtration rate <50 mL/min (OR, 3.52; P <0.0001), New York Heart Association class IV (OR, 2.11; P =0.024), systolic pulmonary artery pressure >55 mm Hg (OR, 1.78; P =0.032), and critical state (OR, 2.37; P =0.017) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. A scoring system was devised to predict in-hospital death postsurgery for IE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.780; 95% CI, 0.734-0.822). The score performed better than 5 of 6 scoring systems for in-hospital death after cardiac surgery that were considered. A simple scoring system based on risk factors for in-hospital death was specifically created to predict mortality risk postsurgery in patients with IE. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

PubMed

Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

2015-04-01

Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could guide decision-making to reduce admissions, optimize utility of diagnostic imaging and prevent negative explorations. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Does fibrinogen add to prediction of cardiovascular disease? Results from the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort Study.

PubMed

Woodward, Mark; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Rumley, Ann; Lowe, Gordon D O

2009-08-01

Plasma fibrinogen is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but it has not been established whether it adds predictive value to risk scores. In the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort Study, we measured plasma fibrinogen in 13 060 men and women, aged 30-74 years, initially free of CVD. After follow-up for a median of 19.2 years, 2626 subjects had at least one CVD event. After adjusting for classical CVD risk factors and socio-economic status, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for a one unit (g/l) increase in plasma fibrinogen were 1.09 (1.02, 1.16) for men and 1.10 (1.02, 1.19) for women. Although fibrinogen added significantly to the discrimination of the Framingham risk score for women, it failed to do so for men. Fibrinogen did not add significantly to the ASSIGN risk score. Fibrinogen added between 1.3% and 3.2% to the classification of CVD status by the existing risk scores. We conclude that the added value of fibrinogen to two currently used risk scores is low; hence population screening with fibrinogen for this purpose is unlikely to be clinically useful or cost-effective.

A Risk-Scoring System for Predicting Methicillin Resistance in Community-Onset Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia in Korea.

PubMed

Suh, Hyeon Jeong; Park, Wan Beom; Jung, Sook-In; Song, Kyoung-Ho; Kwak, Yee Gyung; Kim, Kye-Hyung; Hwang, Jeong-Hwan; Yun, Na Ra; Jang, Hee-Chang; Kim, Young Keun; Kim, Nak-Hyun; Park, Kyung-Hwa; Kang, Seung Ji; Lee, Shinwon; Kim, Eu Suk; Kim, Hong Bin

2018-06-01

We aimed to develop a simple scoring system to predict risk for methicillin resistance in community-onset Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (CO-SAB) by identifying the clinical and epidemiological risk factors for community-onset methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). We retrospectively analyzed data from three multicenter cohort studies in Korea in which patient information was prospectively collected and risk factors for methicillin resistance in CO-SAB were identified. We then developed and validated a risk-scoring system. To analyze the 1,802 cases of CO-SAB, we included the four most powerful predictors of methicillin resistance that we identified in the scoring system: underlying hematologic disease (-1 point), endovascular infection as the primary site of infection (-1 point), history of hospitalization or surgery in ≤1 year (+0.5 points), and previous isolation of MRSA in ≤6 months (+1.5 points). With this scoring system, cases were classified into low (less than -0.5), intermediate (-0.5-1.5), and high (≥1.5) risk groups. The proportions of MRSA cases in each group were 24.7% (22/89), 39.0% (607/1,557), and 78.8% (123/156), respectively, and 16.7% (1/6), 33.8% (112/331), and 76.9% (10/13) in a validation set. This risk-scoring system for methicillin resistance in CO-SAB may help physicians select appropriate empirical antibiotics more quickly.

A novel risk score for mortality in renal transplant recipients beyond the first posttransplant year.

PubMed

Hernández, Domingo; Sánchez-Fructuoso, Ana; González-Posada, José Manuel; Arias, Manuel; Campistol, Josep María; Rufino, Margarita; Morales, José María; Moreso, Francesc; Pérez, Germán; Torres, Armando; Serón, Daniel

2009-09-27

All-cause mortality is high after kidney transplantation (KT), but no prognostic index has focused on predicting mortality in KT using baseline and emergent comorbidity after KT. A total of 4928 KT recipients were used to derive a risk score predicting mortality. Patients were randomly assigned to two groups: a modeling population (n=2452), used to create a new index, and a testing population (n=2476), used to test this index. Multivariate Cox regression model coefficients of baseline (age, weight, time on dialysis, diabetes, hepatitis C, and delayed graft function) and emergent comorbidity within the first posttransplant year (diabetes, proteinuria, renal function, and immunosuppressants) were used to weigh each variable in the calculation of the score and allocated into risk quartiles. The probability of death at 3 years, estimated by baseline cumulative hazard function from the Cox model [P (death)=1-0.993592764 (exp(score/100)], increased from 0.9% in the lowest-risk quartile (score=40) to 4.7% in the highest risk-quartile (score=200). The observed incidence of death increased with increasing risk quartiles in testing population (log-rank analysis, P<0.0001). The overall C-index was 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.78) and 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.70-0.77) in both populations, respectively. This new index is an accurate tool to identify high-risk patients for mortality after KT.

Theory-Driven Longitudinal Study Exploring Indoor Tanning Initiation in Teens Using a Person-Centered Approach

PubMed Central

Hillhouse, Joel; Turrisi, Rob; Cleveland, Michael J.; Scaglione, Nichole M.; Baker, Katie; Florence, L. Carter

2015-01-01

Background Younger indoor tanning initiation leads to greater melanoma risk due to more frequent and persistent behavior. Despite this, there are no published studies exploring the predictors of indoor tanning initiation in teen populations. Purpose This longitudinal study uses latent profile analysis to examine indoor tanning initiation in indoor tanning risk subgroups from a national sample of female adolescents. Methods Latent profile analysis used indoor tanning beliefs and perceptions to identify indoor tanning initiation risk subgroups. The teens in each subgroup were reassessed on indoor tanning initiation after a year. Results Three subgroups were identified: a low-risk, Anti-Tanning subgroup (18.6%) characterized by low scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; a moderate-risk Aware Social Tanner subgroup (47.2%) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales but also high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; and a high-risk Risky Relaxation Tanner subgroup (34.2%) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and low scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers. Teens in the Aware Social Tanner and Risky Relaxation Tanner subgroups were significantly more likely to initiate indoor tanning in the following year. Conclusions These findings highlight the need to identify teens at risk for indoor tanning initiation and develop tailored interventions that will move them to the lowest risk subgroup. Subgroup correlates suggest parent and peer-based interventions may be successful. PMID:26370893

Theory-Driven Longitudinal Study Exploring Indoor Tanning Initiation in Teens Using a Person-Centered Approach.

PubMed

Hillhouse, Joel; Turrisi, Rob; Cleveland, Michael J; Scaglione, Nichole M; Baker, Katie; Florence, L Carter

2016-02-01

Younger indoor tanning initiation leads to greater melanoma risk due to more frequent and persistent behavior. Despite this, there are no published studies exploring the predictors of indoor tanning initiation in teen populations. This longitudinal study uses latent profile analysis to examine indoor tanning initiation in indoor tanning risk subgroups from a national sample of female adolescents. Latent profile analysis used indoor tanning beliefs and perceptions to identify indoor tanning initiation risk subgroups. The teens in each subgroup were reassessed on indoor tanning initiation after a year. Three subgroups were identified: a low risk, anti-tanning subgroup (18.6 %) characterized by low scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; a moderate risk aware social tanner subgroup (47.2 %) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales but also high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; and a high risk risky relaxation tanner subgroup (34.2 %) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and low scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers. Teens in the aware social tanner and risky relaxation tanner subgroups were significantly more likely to initiate indoor tanning in the following year. These findings highlight the need to identify teens at risk for indoor tanning initiation and develop tailored interventions that will move them to the lowest risk subgroup. Subgroup correlates suggest parent and peer-based interventions may be successful.

The correlation between highly sensitive C-reactive protein levels and erectile function among men with late-onset hypogonadism.

PubMed

Shigehara, Kazuyoshi; Konaka, Hiroyuki; Ijima, Masashi; Nohara, Takahiro; Narimoto, Kazutaka; Izumi, Koji; Kadono, Yoshifumi; Kitagawa, Yasuhide; Mizokami, Atsushi; Namiki, Mikio

2016-12-01

We investigated the correlation between highly sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels and erectile function, and assessed the clinical role of hs-CRP levels in men with late-onset hypogonadism (LOH) syndrome. For 77 participants, we assessed Sexual Health Inventory for men (SHIM) score, Aging Male Symptoms (AMS) score and International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS). We also evaluated free testosterone (FT), hs-CRP, total cholesterol, triglyceride levels, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, body mass index, waist size and blood pressure. We attempted to identify parameters correlated with SHIM score and to determine the factors affecting cardiovascular risk based on hs-CRP levels. A Spearman rank correlation test revealed that age, AMS score, IPSS and hs-CRP levels were significantly correlated with SHIM score. Age-adjusted analysis revealed that hs-CRP and IPSS were the independent factors affecting SHIM score (r= -0.304 and -0.322, respectively). Seventeen patients belonged to the moderate to high risk group for cardiovascular disease, whereas the remaining 60 belonged to the low risk group. Age, FT value and SHIM score showed significant differences between the two groups. A multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that SHIM score was an independent factor affecting cardiovascular risk (OR: 0.796; 95%CI: 0.637-0.995).

Change in Level of Service Inventory-Ontario Revised (LSI-OR) Risk Scores Over Time: An Examination of Overall Growth Curves and Subscale-Dependent Growth Curves.

PubMed

Day, David M; Wilson, Holly A; Bodwin, Kelly; Monson, Candice M

2017-10-01

The dynamic nature of risk to re-offend is an important issue in the management of offenders and has stimulated extensive research into dynamic risk factors that can alter an individual's overall risk to re-offend if addressed. However, few studies have examined the relative importance of these dynamic risk factors, complicating the task of developing case management and treatment plans that will effect the most change. Using a large, high-risk sample and multi-wave data of a common risk assessment tool, the Level of Service Inventory-Ontario Revised (LSI-OR), the current study investigated the relationship among criminogenic risk factors and their role in influencing the overall risk score. Results indicated a diverse pattern of effects on the eight subscale scores, specifically suggesting that changes on Procriminal Attitude/Orientation, Criminal History, and Leisure/Recreation subscales resulted in a quicker rate of change to the overall risk score over time. These results suggest that some factors may be driving the change in overall risk and could potentially effect the most change if prioritized for intervention. Practical implications and implications for further research are discussed.

Admission glucose does not improve GRACE score at 6 months and 5 years after myocardial infarction.

PubMed

de Mulder, Maarten; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; de Waard, Guus A; Boersma, Eric; Umans, Victor A

2011-01-01

Admission plasma glucose (APG) is a biomarker that predicts mortality in myocardial infarction (MI) patients. Therefore, APG may improve risk stratification based on the GRACE risk score. We collected data on baseline characteristics and long-term (median 55 months) outcome of 550 MI patients who entered our hospital in 2003 and 2006. We determined the GRACE risk score at admission for each patient, which was entered in a logistic regression model, together with APG, to evaluate their prognostic value for 6-month and 5-year mortality. Patients with APG ≥7.8 mmol/l had a higher mortality than those with APG levels <7.8 mmol/l; 6 months: 13.7 versus 3.6%, p value <0.001; 5 years: 20.4 versus 11.1%, p value 0.003. After adjustment for the GRACE risk score variables, APG appeared a significant predictor of 6-month and 5-year mortality, adjusted OR 1.17 (1.06-1.29) and 1.12 (1.03-1.22). The combination of the GRACE risk score and APG increased the model's performance (discrimination C-index 0.87 vs. 0.85), although the difference was not significant (p = 0.095). Combining the GRACE risk score and APG reclassified 12.9% of the patients, but the net reclassification improvement was nonsignificant (p = 0.146). APG is a predictor of 6-month and 5-year mortality, each mmol/l increase in APG being associated with a mortality increase of 17 and 12%, respectively, independent of the GRACE risk score. However, adding APG to the GRACE model did not result in significantly improved clinical risk stratification. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Entecavir treatment does not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B: limited role for risk scores in Caucasians.

PubMed

Arends, Pauline; Sonneveld, Milan J; Zoutendijk, Roeland; Carey, Ivana; Brown, Ashley; Fasano, Massimo; Mutimer, David; Deterding, Katja; Reijnders, Jurriën G P; Oo, Ye; Petersen, Jörg; van Bömmel, Florian; de Knegt, Robert J; Santantonio, Teresa; Berg, Thomas; Welzel, Tania M; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Buti, Maria; Pradat, Pierre; Zoulim, Fabien; Hansen, Bettina; Janssen, Harry L A

2015-08-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk-scores may predict HCC in Asian entecavir (ETV)-treated patients. We aimed to study risk factors and performance of risk scores during ETV treatment in an ethnically diverse Western population. We studied all HBV monoinfected patients treated with ETV from 11 European referral centres within the VIRGIL Network. A total of 744 patients were included; 42% Caucasian, 29% Asian, 19% other, 10% unknown. At baseline, 164 patients (22%) had cirrhosis. During a median follow-up of 167 (IQR 82-212) weeks, 14 patients developed HCC of whom nine (64%) had cirrhosis at baseline. The 5-year cumulative incidence rate of HCC was 2.1% for non-cirrhotic and 10.9% for cirrhotic patients (p<0.001). HCC incidence was higher in older patients (p<0.001) and patients with lower baseline platelet counts (p=0.02). Twelve patients who developed HCC achieved virologic response (HBV DNA <80 IU/mL) before HCC. At baseline, higher CU-HCC and GAG-HCC, but not REACH-B scores were associated with development of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was low, with sensitivity ranging from 18% to 73%, and c-statistics from 0.71 to 0.85. Performance was further reduced in Caucasians with c-statistics from 0.54 to 0.74. Predicted risk of HCC based on risk-scores declined during ETV therapy (all p<0.001), but predictive performances after 1 year were comparable to those at baseline. Cumulative incidence of HCC is low in patients treated with ETV, but ETV does not eliminate the risk of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was limited, particularly in Caucasians, at baseline and during therapy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risk Prediction Score for HIV Infection: Development and Internal Validation with Cross-Sectional Data from Men Who Have Sex with Men in China.

PubMed

Yin, Lu; Zhao, Yuejuan; Peratikos, Meridith Blevins; Song, Liang; Zhang, Xiangjun; Xin, Ruolei; Sun, Zheya; Xu, Yunan; Zhang, Li; Hu, Yifei; Hao, Chun; Ruan, Yuhua; Shao, Yiming; Vermund, Sten H; Qian, Han-Zhu

2018-05-21

Receptive anal intercourse, multiple partners, condomless sex, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and drug/alcohol addiction are familiar factors that correlate with increased human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk among men who have sex with men (MSM). To improve estimation to HIV acquisition, we created a composite score using questions from routine survey of 3588 MSM in Beijing, China. The HIV prevalence was 13.4%. A risk scoring tool using penalized maximum likelihood multivariable logistic regression modeling was developed, deploying backward step-down variable selection to obtain a reduced-form model. The full penalized model included 19 sexual predictors, while the reduced-form model had 12 predictors. Both models calibrated well; bootstrap-corrected c-indices were 0.70 (full model) and 0.71 (reduced-form model). Non-Beijing residence, short-term living in Beijing, illegal drug use, multiple male sexual partners, receptive anal sex, inconsistent condom use, alcohol consumption before sex, and syphilis infection were the strongest predictors of HIV infection. Discriminating higher-risk MSM for targeted HIV prevention programming using a validated risk score could improve the efficiency of resource deployment for educational and risk reduction programs. A valid risk score can also identify higher risk persons into prevention and vaccine clinical trials, which would improve trial cost-efficiency.

Polygenic risk scores for smoking: predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

PubMed

Vink, Jacqueline M; Hottenga, Jouke Jan; de Geus, Eco J C; Willemsen, Gonneke; Neale, Michael C; Furberg, Helena; Boomsma, Dorret I

2014-07-01

A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Summary-level P-values were available for smoking initiation, age at onset of smoking, cigarettes per day and smoking cessation from the Tobacco and Genetics Consortium (n between 22,000 and 70,000 subjects). Using different P-value thresholds (0.1, 0.2 and 0.5) from the meta-analysis, sets of 'risk alleles' were defined and used to generate a polygenic risk score (weighted sum of the alleles) for each subject in an independent target sample from the Netherlands Twin Register (n = 1583). The association between polygenic smoking scores and alcohol/cannabis use was investigated with regression analysis. The polygenic scores for 'cigarettes per day' were associated significantly with the number of glasses alcohol per week (P = 0.005, R2 = 0.4-0.5%) and cannabis initiation (P = 0.004, R2 = 0.6-0.9%). The polygenic scores for 'age at onset of smoking' were associated significantly with 'age at regular drinking' (P = 0.001, R2 = 1.1-1.5%), while the scores for 'smoking initiation' and 'smoking cessation' did not significantly predict alcohol or cannabis use. Smoking, alcohol and cannabis use are influenced by aggregated genetic risk factors shared between these substances. The many common genetic variants each have a very small individual effect size. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

A risk score for identifying methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) represents an important pathogen in healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP). The concept of HCAP, though, may not perform well as a screening test for MRSA and can lead to overuse of antibiotics. We developed a risk score to identify patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia unlikely to have MRSA. Methods We identified patients admitted with pneumonia (Apr 2005 – Mar 2009) at 62 hospitals in the US. We only included patients with lab evidence of bacterial infection (e.g., positive respiratory secretions, blood, or pleural cultures or urinary antigen testing). We determined variables independently associated with the presence of MRSA based on logistic regression (two-thirds of cohort) and developed a risk prediction model based on these factors. We validated the model in the remaining population. Results The cohort included 5975 patients and MRSA was identified in 14%. The final risk score consisted of eight variables and a potential total score of 10. Points were assigned as follows: two for recent hospitalization or ICU admission; one each for age < 30 or > 79 years, prior IV antibiotic exposure, dementia, cerebrovascular disease, female with diabetes, or recent exposure to a nursing home/long term acute care facility/skilled nursing facility. This study shows how the prevalence of MRSA rose with increasing score after stratifying the scores into Low (0 to 1 points), Medium (2 to 5 points) and High (6 or more points) risk. When the score was 0 or 1, the prevalence of MRSA was < 10% while the prevalence of MRSA climbed to > 30% when the score was 6 or greater. Conclusions MRSA represents a cause of pneumonia presenting to the hospital. This simple risk score identifies patients at low risk for MRSA and in whom anti-MRSA therapy might be withheld. PMID:23742753

Melanoma risk prediction using a multilocus genetic risk score in the Women's Health Initiative cohort.

PubMed

Cho, Hyunje G; Ransohoff, Katherine J; Yang, Lingyao; Hedlin, Haley; Assimes, Themistocles; Han, Jiali; Stefanick, Marcia; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y

2018-07-01

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with melanoma have been identified though genome-wide association studies. However, the combined impact of these SNPs on melanoma development remains unclear, particularly in postmenopausal women who carry a lower melanoma risk. We examine the contribution of a combined polygenic risk score on melanoma development in postmenopausal women. Genetic risk scores were calculated using 21 genome-wide association study-significant SNPs. Their combined effect on melanoma development was evaluated in 19,102 postmenopausal white women in the clinical trial and observational study arms of the Women's Health Initiative dataset. Compared to the tertile of weighted genetic risk score with the lowest genetic risk, the women in the tertile with the highest genetic risk were 1.9 times more likely to develop melanoma (95% confidence interval 1.50-2.42). The incremental change in c-index from adding genetic risk scores to age were 0.075 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.109) for incident melanoma. Limitations include a lack of information on nevi count, Fitzpatrick skin type, family history of melanoma, and potential reporting and selection bias in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. Higher genetic risk is associated with increased melanoma prevalence and incidence in postmenopausal women, but current genetic information may have a limited role in risk prediction when phenotypic information is available. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Score tests for independence in semiparametric competing risks models.

PubMed

Saïd, Mériem; Ghazzali, Nadia; Rivest, Louis-Paul

2009-12-01

A popular model for competing risks postulates the existence of a latent unobserved failure time for each risk. Assuming that these underlying failure times are independent is attractive since it allows standard statistical tools for right-censored lifetime data to be used in the analysis. This paper proposes simple independence score tests for the validity of this assumption when the individual risks are modeled using semiparametric proportional hazards regressions. It assumes that covariates are available, making the model identifiable. The score tests are derived for alternatives that specify that copulas are responsible for a possible dependency between the competing risks. The test statistics are constructed by adding to the partial likelihoods for the individual risks an explanatory variable for the dependency between the risks. A variance estimator is derived by writing the score function and the Fisher information matrix for the marginal models as stochastic integrals. Pitman efficiencies are used to compare test statistics. A simulation study and a numerical example illustrate the methodology proposed in this paper.

Dietary risk ranking for residual antibiotics in cultured aquatic products around Tai Lake, China.

PubMed

Song, Chao; Li, Le; Zhang, Cong; Qiu, Liping; Fan, Limin; Wu, Wei; Meng, Shunlong; Hu, Gengdong; Chen, Jiazhang; Liu, Ying; Mao, Aimin

2017-10-01

Antibiotics are widely used in aquaculture and therefore may be present as a dietary risk in cultured aquatic products. Using the Tai Lake Basin as a study area, we assessed the presence of 15 antibiotics in 5 widely cultured aquatic species using a newly developed dietary risk ranking approach. By assigning scores to each factor involved in the ranking matrices, the scores of dietary risks per antibiotic and per aquatic species were calculated. The results indicated that fluoroquinolone antibiotics posed the highest dietary risk in all aquatic species. Then, the total scores per aquatic species were summed by all 15 antibiotic scores of antibiotics, it was found that Crab (Eriocheir sinensis) had the highest dietary risks. Finally, the most concerned antibiotic category and aquatic species were selected. This study highlighted the importance of dietary risk ranking in the production and consumption of cultured aquatic products around Tai Lake. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular risk stratification in overweight or obese patients in primary prevention. Implications for use of statins.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Lobo, Martín; Huerín, Melina; Molinero, Graciela; Manente, Diego; Pángaro, Mario; Vitagliano, Laura; Zylbersztejn, Horacio

2015-02-01

Cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with overweight/obesity is not standardized. Our objectives were to stratify cardiovascular risk using different scores, to analyze use of statins, to report the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP), and to determine the optimal cut-off point (OCP) of scores that discriminate between subjects with or without CAP. Non-diabetic patients with overweight or obesity in primary prevention were enrolled. The Framingham score (FS), the European score (ES), and the score proposed by the new American guidelines (NS) were calculated, and statin indication was evaluated. Prevalence of CAP was determined by ultrasound examination. A ROC analysis was performed. A total of 474 patients (67% with overweight and 33% obese) were enrolled into the study. The FS classified the largest number of subjects as low risk. PAC prevalence was higher in obese as compared to overweight subjects (44.8% vs. 36.1%, P=.04). According to the FS, ES, and NS respectively, 26.7%, 39.1%, and 39.1% of overweight subjects and 28.6%, 39.0%, and 39.0% of obese subjects had an absolute indication for statins. All three scores were shown to acceptably discriminate between subjects with and without CAP (area under the curve>0.7). The OCPs evaluated did not agree with the risk category values. Risk stratification and use of statins varied in the overweight/obese population depending on the function used. Understanding of the relationship between scores and presence of CAP may optimize risk estimate. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

HEART score performance in Asian and Caucasian patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

de Hoog, Vince C; Lim, Swee Han; Bank, Ingrid Em; Gijsberts, Crystel M; Ibrahim, Irwani B; Kuan, Win Sen; Ooi, Shirley Bs; Chua, Terrance Sj; Tai, E Shyong; Gao, Fei; Pasterkamp, Gerard; den Ruijter, Hester M; Doevendans, Pieter A; Wildbergh, Thierry X; Mosterd, Arend; Richards, A Mark; de Kleijn, Dominique Pv; Timmers, Leo

2017-03-01

The HEART score is a simple and effective tool to predict short-term major adverse cardiovascular events in patients suspected of acute coronary syndrome. Patients are assigned to three risk categories using History, ECG, Age, Risk factors and Troponin (HEART). The purpose is early rule out and discharge is considered safe for patients in the low risk category. Its performance in patients of Asian ethnicity is unknown. We evaluated the performance of the HEART score in patients of Caucasian, Chinese, Indian and Malay ethnicity. The HEART score was assessed retrospectively in 3456 patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected acute coronary syndrome (1791 Caucasians, 1059 Chinese, 344 Indians, 262 Malays), assigning them into three risk categories. The incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events within six weeks after presentation was similar between the ethnic groups. A smaller proportion of Caucasians was in the low risk category compared with Asians (Caucasians 35.8%, Chinese 43.5%, Indians 45.3%, Malays 44.7%, p<0.001). The negative predictive value of a low HEART score was comparable across the ethnic groups, but lower than previously reported (Caucasians 95.3%, Chinese 95.0%, Indians 96.2%, Malays 96.6%). Also the c-statistic for the HEART score was not significantly different between the groups. These results show that the overall performance of the HEART score is equal among Caucasian and Asian ethnic groups. The event rate in the low risk group, however, was higher than reported in previous studies, which queries the safety of early discharge of patients in the low risk category.

Cardiovascular risk prediction in HIV-infected patients: comparing the Framingham, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) and Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) risk prediction models.

PubMed

Krikke, M; Hoogeveen, R C; Hoepelman, A I M; Visseren, F L J; Arends, J E

2016-04-01

The aim of the study was to compare the predictions of five popular cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models, namely the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model, the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) coronary heart disease (FHS-CHD) and general CVD (FHS-CVD) models, the American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD) model and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) model. A cross-sectional design was used to compare the cumulative CVD risk predictions of the models. Furthermore, the predictions of the general CVD models were compared with those of the HIV-specific D:A:D model using three categories (< 10%, 10-20% and > 20%) to categorize the risk and to determine the degree to which patients were categorized similarly or in a higher/lower category. A total of 997 HIV-infected patients were included in the study: 81% were male and they had a median age of 46 [interquartile range (IQR) 40-52] years, a known duration of HIV infection of 6.8 (IQR 3.7-10.9) years, and a median time on ART of 6.4 (IQR 3.0-11.5) years. The D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models gave a lower cumulative CVD risk, compared with that of the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models. Comparing the general CVD models with the D:A:D model, the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models only classified 65% and 79% of patients, respectively, in the same category as did the D:A:D model. However, for the ASCVD and SCORE-NL models, this percentage was 89% and 87%, respectively. Furthermore, FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD attributed a higher CVD risk to 33% and 16% of patients, respectively, while this percentage was < 6% for ASCVD and SCORE-NL. When using FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD, a higher overall CVD risk was attributed to the HIV-infected patients than when using the D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models. This could have consequences regarding overtreatment, drug-related adverse events and drug-drug interactions. © 2015 British HIV Association.

Complete remission and early death after intensive chemotherapy in patients aged 60 years or older with acute myeloid leukaemia: a web-based application for prediction of outcomes.

PubMed

Krug, Utz; Röllig, Christoph; Koschmieder, Anja; Heinecke, Achim; Sauerland, Maria Cristina; Schaich, Markus; Thiede, Christian; Kramer, Michael; Braess, Jan; Spiekermann, Karsten; Haferlach, Torsten; Haferlach, Claudia; Koschmieder, Steffen; Rohde, Christian; Serve, Hubert; Wörmann, Bernhard; Hiddemann, Wolfgang; Ehninger, Gerhard; Berdel, Wolfgang E; Büchner, Thomas; Müller-Tidow, Carsten

2010-12-11

About 50% of patients (age ≥60 years) who have acute myeloid leukaemia and are otherwise medically healthy (ie, able to undergo intensive chemotherapy) achieve a complete remission (CR) after intensive chemotherapy, but with a substantially increased risk of early death (ED) compared with younger patients. We verified the association of standard clinical and laboratory variables with CR and ED and developed a web-based application for risk assessment of intensive chemotherapy in these patients. Multivariate regression analysis was used to develop risk scores with or without knowledge of the cytogenetic and molecular risk profiles for a cohort of 1406 patients (aged ≥60 years) with acute myeloid leukaemia, but otherwise medically healthy, who were treated with two courses of intensive induction chemotherapy (tioguanine, standard-dose cytarabine, and daunorubicin followed by high-dose cytarabine and mitoxantrone; or with high-dose cytarabine and mitoxantrone in the first and second induction courses) in the German Acute Myeloid Leukaemia Cooperative Group 1999 study. Risk prediction was validated in an independent cohort of 801 patients (aged >60 years) with acute myeloid leukaemia who were given two courses of cytarabine and daunorubicin in the Acute Myeloid Leukaemia 1996 study. Body temperature, age, de-novo leukaemia versus leukaemia secondary to cytotoxic treatment or an antecedent haematological disease, haemoglobin, platelet count, fibrinogen, and serum concentration of lactate dehydrogenase were significantly associated with CR or ED. The probability of CR with knowledge of cytogenetic and molecular risk (score 1) was from 12% to 91%, and without knowledge (score 2) from 21% to 80%. The predicted risk of ED was from 6% to 69% for score 1 and from 7% to 63% for score 2. The predictive power of the risk scores was confirmed in the independent patient cohort (CR score 1, from 10% to 91%; CR score 2, from 16% to 80%; ED score 1, from 6% to 69%; and ED score 2, from 7% to 61%). The scores for acute myeloid leukaemia can be used to predict the probability of CR and the risk of ED in older patients with acute myeloid leukaemia, but otherwise medically healthy, for whom intensive induction chemotherapy is planned. This information can help physicians with difficult decisions for treatment of these patients. Deutsche Krebshilfe and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pneumonia risks in bedridden patients receiving oral care and their screening tool: Malnutrition and urinary tract infection-induced inflammation.

PubMed

Matsusaka, Kaoru; Kawakami, Genichiro; Kamekawa, Hatsumi; Momma, Haruki; Nagatomi, Ryoichi; Itoh, Jun; Yamaya, Mutsuo

2018-05-01

Pneumonia develops in bedridden patients even when they are receiving oral care. However, the pneumonia risk in bedridden patients remains unclear, and no screening tool has been developed to assess this risk by using daily hospital data. We retrospectively examined pneumonia risk factors by analyzing the records of 102 bedridden patients receiving oral care. Body mass index, peripheral blood hemoglobin, and serum concentrations of total protein, albumin, total cholesterol and uric acid in the pneumonia group (n = 51; mean age 73.4 years) were lower than those in the non-pneumonia group (n = 51; mean age 68.1 years). In the univariate analysis, body mass index; leukocytosis; high C-reactive protein; low levels of hemoglobin, total protein and albumin (<3.5 g/dL); and urine bacteria were associated with the development of pneumonia. Furthermore, in the multivariate analysis, low levels of albumin and urine bacteria were independently associated with pneumonia. We developed a bedridden patient pneumonia risk (BPPR) score using these two risk factors to assess pneumonia risk. We applied scores of zero (0) or one (1) according to the absence or presence of the two risk factors and summed the scores in each patient. The proportion of pneumonia patients increased with increasing BPPR score when the patients were divided into three groups - low, moderate and high risk - according to the BPPR score (0, 1 or 2, respectively). Malnutrition, urinary tract infection-induced inflammation and anemia were associated with pneumonia in bedridden patients. BPPR scoring might be useful for assessing pneumonia risk and managing affected patients. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 714-722. © 2018 Japan Geriatrics Society.

A point-based prediction model for cardiovascular risk in orthotopic liver transplantation: The CAR-OLT score.

PubMed

VanWagner, Lisa B; Ning, Hongyan; Whitsett, Maureen; Levitsky, Josh; Uttal, Sarah; Wilkins, John T; Abecassis, Michael M; Ladner, Daniela P; Skaro, Anton I; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2017-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). There is currently no preoperative risk-assessment tool that allows physicians to estimate the risk for CVD events following OLT. We sought to develop a point-based prediction model (risk score) for CVD complications after OLT, the Cardiovascular Risk in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation risk score, among a cohort of 1,024 consecutive patients aged 18-75 years who underwent first OLT in a tertiary-care teaching hospital (2002-2011). The main outcome measures were major 1-year CVD complications, defined as death from a CVD cause or hospitalization for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, revascularization, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and/or stroke). The bootstrap method yielded bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the regression coefficients of the final model. Among 1,024 first OLT recipients, major CVD complications occurred in 329 (32.1%). Variables selected for inclusion in the model (using model optimization strategies) included preoperative recipient age, sex, race, employment status, education status, history of hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary or systemic hypertension, and respiratory failure. The discriminative performance of the point-based score (C statistic = 0.78, bias-corrected C statistic = 0.77) was superior to other published risk models for postoperative CVD morbidity and mortality, and it had appropriate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.33). The point-based risk score can identify patients at risk for CVD complications after OLT surgery (available at www.carolt.us); this score may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve CVD outcomes after OLT. (Hepatology 2017;66:1968-1979). © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Risk-adjusted outcome measurement in pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Matthes-Martin, Susanne; Pötschger, Ulrike; Bergmann, Kirsten; Frommlet, Florian; Brannath, Werner; Bauer, Peter; Klingebiel, Thomas

2008-03-01

The purpose of the study was to define a risk score for 1-year treatment-related mortality (TRM) in children undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation as a basis for risk-adjusted outcome assessment. We analyzed 1364 consecutive stem cell transplants performed in 24 German and Austrian centers between 1998 and 2003. Five well-established risk factors were tested by multivariate logistic regression for predictive power: patient age, disease status, donor other than matched sibling donor, T cell depletion (TCD), and preceding stem cell transplantation. The risk score was defined by rounding the parameter estimates of the significant risk factors to the nearest integer. Crossvalidation was performed on the basis of 5 randomly extracted equal-sized parts from the database. Additionally, the score was validated for different disease entities and for single centers. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant correlation of TRM with 3 risk factors: age >10 years, advanced disease, and alternative donor. The parameter estimates were 0.76 for age, 0.73 for disease status, and 0.97 for donor type. Rounding the estimates resulted in a score with 1 point for each risk factor. One-year TRM (overall survival [OS]) were 5% (89%) with a score of 0, 18% (74%) with 1, 28% (54%) with 2, and 53% (27%) with 3 points. Crossvalidation showed stable results with a good correlation between predicted and observed mortality but moderate discrimination. The score seems to be a simple instrument to estimate the expected mortality for each risk group and for each center. Measuring TRM risk-adjusted and the comparison between expected and observed mortality may be an additional tool for outcome assessment in pediatric stem cell transplantation.

The Auckland Cataract Study II: Reducing Complications by Preoperative Risk Stratification and Case Allocation in a Teaching Hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; McKelvie, James; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2017-09-01

To assess the effect of preoperative risk stratification for phacoemulsification surgery on intraoperative complications in a teaching hospital. Prospective cohort study. Prospective assessment of consecutive phacoemulsification cases (N = 500) enabled calculation of a risk score (M-score of 0-8) using a risk stratification system. M-scores of >3 were allocated to senior surgeons. All surgeries were performed in a public teaching hospital setting, Auckland, New Zealand, in early 2016. Postoperatively, data were reviewed for complications and corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA). Results were compared to a prospective study (N = 500, phase 1) performed prior to formal introduction of risk stratification. Intraoperative complications increased with increasing M-scores (P = .044). Median M-score for complicated cases was higher (P = .022). Odds ratio (OR) for a complication increased 1.269 per unit increase in M-score (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.007-1.599, P = .043). Overall rate of any intraoperative complication was 5.0%. Intraoperative complication rates decreased from 8.4% to 5.0% (OR = 0.576, P = .043) comparing phase 1 and phase 2 (formal introduction of risk stratification). The severity of complications also reduced. A significant decrease in complications for M = 0 (ie, minimal risk cases) was also identified comparing the current study (3.1%) to phase 1 (7.2%), P = .034. There was no change in postoperative complication risks (OR 0.812, P = .434) or in mean postoperative CDVA (20/30, P = .484) comparing current with phase 1 outcomes. A simple preoperative risk stratification system, based on standard patient information gathered at preoperative consultation, appears to reduce intraoperative complications and support safer surgical training by appropriate allocation of higher-risk cases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Which Patients in the Emergency Department Should Receive Preexposure Prophylaxis? Implementation of a Predictive Analytics Approach.

PubMed

Ridgway, Jessica P; Almirol, Ellen A; Bender, Alvie; Richardson, Andrew; Schmitt, Jessica; Friedman, Eleanor; Lancki, Nicola; Leroux, Ivan; Pieroni, Nina; Dehlin, Jessica; Schneider, John A

2018-05-01

Emergency Departments (EDs) have the potential to play a crucial role in HIV prevention by identifying and linking high-risk HIV-negative clients to preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) care, but it is difficult to perform HIV risk assessment for all ED patients. We aimed to develop and implement an electronic risk score to identify ED patients who are potential candidates for PrEP. Using electronic medical record (EMR) data, we used logistic regression to model the outcome of PrEP eligibility. We converted the model into an electronic risk score and incorporated it into the EMR. The risk score is automatically calculated at triage. For patients whose risk score is above a given threshold, an automated electronic alert is sent to an HIV prevention counselor who performs real time HIV prevention counseling, risk assessment, and PrEP linkage as appropriate. The electronic risk score includes the following EMR variables: age, gender, gender of sexual partner, chief complaint, and positive test for sexually transmitted infection in the prior 6 months. A risk score ≥21 has specificity of 80.6% and sensitivity of 50%. In the first 5.5 months of implementation, the alert fired for 180 patients, 34.4% (62/180) of whom were women. Of the 51 patients who completed risk assessment, 68.6% (35/51) were interested in PrEP, 17.6% (9/51) scheduled a PrEP appointment, and 7.8% (4/51) successfully initiated PrEP. The measured number of successful PrEP initiations is likely an underestimate, as it does include patients who initiated PrEP with outside providers or referred acquaintances for PrEP care.

Health-risk appraisal with or without disease management for worksite cardiovascular risk reduction.

PubMed

Maron, David J; Forbes, Barbara L; Groves, Jay R; Dietrich, Mary S; Sells, Patrick; DiGenio, Andres G

2008-01-01

Worksite health promotion programs use health risk appraisal (HRA) surveys to identify employees at increased risk, then provide a range of interventions to encourage high-risk individuals to improve their health. Our objective was to determine how the intensity of intervention after HRA affected cardiovascular risk after 1 year, comparing individual follow-up counseling with environmental supports. 133 employees of Vanderbilt University with cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned to worksite HRA plus targeted disease management (DM group) or HRA plus information about worksite health promotion programs (HRA group). The DM group received longitudinal individualized counseling for risk reduction, whereas the HRA group members received one feedback session about their risk factors and information about free worksite health promotion programs. The main outcome measure was the difference between groups in the change in average Framingham risk score from baseline to 1 year. There was no significant baseline difference between groups in the Framingham risk score. Among DM participants, the mean (SD) Framingham risk score decreased by 22.6%; among HRA participants, the mean score rose by 4.3% (P = .017 for the difference between groups). In this study of employees with cardiovascular risk factors, HRA followed by individual counseling was more effective than providing information about free worksite health promotion programs.

An evaluation of venous thromboembolic risk in acutely ill medical patients immobilized at home: the AT-HOME Study.

PubMed

Haas, Sylvia K; Hach-Wunderle, Viola; Mader, Frank H; Ruster, Katherine; Paar, Wilhelm D

2007-01-01

Many risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized medical patients are also present in medical outpatients. VTE prevention represents an important challenge for physicians treating patients at home. The AT-HOME study was a prospective cross-sectional observational study designed to assess awareness of the risk of VTE in immobilized acutely ill medical outpatients among German physicians, many of whom were participating in a national Continuing Medical Education (CME) program designed to raise awareness of VTE. The study involved 1210 medical patients who were acutely confined to bed at home. Physicians performed a subjective assessment of VTE risk, which was rated on a 10-point scale (1 = very low risk; 10 = very high risk). The risk of VTE was also assessed retrospectively by using a scorecard developed for use in hospitalized medical patients. Of the 1210 patients, 198 (16%) had risk scores of 0-4, 319 (26%) had scores of 5 or 6, and 693 (57%) had scores > or =7. Overall, 966 patients (80%) received thromboprophylaxis. The proportion of patients receiving thromboprophylaxis was 0% to 47% in risk score groups 0-4, 76% to 85% in groups 5 and 6, and 90% to 100% in risk score groups 7-10. In the retrospective assessment of VTE risk, 74% of patients were at high risk, 15% were at intermediate risk, and 11% were at low risk. The proportions of patients receiving thromboprophylaxis in these groups were 87%, 61%, and 55%, respectively. The involvement of physicians in educational activities focusing on VTE awareness appeared to create awareness of the risks of VTE in acutely ill medical outpatients.

Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

PubMed

George, Elizabeth C; Walker, A Sarah; Kiguli, Sarah; Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Opoka, Robert O; Engoru, Charles; Akech, Samuel O; Nyeko, Richard; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Berkley, James A; Mpoya, Ayub; Levin, Michael; Crawley, Jane; Gibb, Diana M; Maitland, Kathryn; Babiker, Abdel G

2015-07-31

Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally validated. The score discriminated those at highest risk of fatal outcome at the point of hospital admission and compared well to other published risk scores. Further laboratory tests were also identified as prognostic factors which could be added if resources were available or as indices of severity for comparison between centres in future research studies.

What's wrong with hazard-ranking systems? An expository note.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2009-07-01

Two commonly recommended principles for allocating risk management resources to remediate uncertain hazards are: (1) select a subset to maximize risk-reduction benefits (e.g., maximize the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility of the selected risk-reducing activities), and (2) assign priorities to risk-reducing opportunities and then select activities from the top of the priority list down until no more can be afforded. When different activities create uncertain but correlated risk reductions, as is often the case in practice, then these principles are inconsistent: priority scoring and ranking fails to maximize risk-reduction benefits. Real-world risk priority scoring systems used in homeland security and terrorism risk assessment, environmental risk management, information system vulnerability rating, business risk matrices, and many other important applications do not exploit correlations among risk-reducing opportunities or optimally diversify risk-reducing investments. As a result, they generally make suboptimal risk management recommendations. Applying portfolio optimization methods instead of risk prioritization ranking, rating, or scoring methods can achieve greater risk-reduction value for resources spent.

Additive composite ABCG2, SLC2A9 and SLC22A12 scores of high-risk alleles with alcohol use modulate gout risk.

PubMed

Tu, Hung-Pin; Chung, Chia-Min; Min-Shan Ko, Albert; Lee, Su-Shin; Lai, Han-Ming; Lee, Chien-Hung; Huang, Chung-Ming; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Ko, Ying-Chin

2016-09-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of urate transporter genes and alcohol use to the risk of gout/tophi. Eight variants of ABCG2, SLC2A9, SLC22A12, SLC22A11 and SLC17A3 were genotyped in male individuals in a case-control study with 157 gout (33% tophi), 106 asymptomatic hyperuricaemia and 295 control subjects from Taiwan. The multilocus profiles of the genetic risk scores for urate gene variants were used to evaluate the risk of asymptomatic hyperuricaemia, gout and tophi. ABCG2 Q141K (T), SLC2A9 rs1014290 (A) and SLC22A12 rs475688 (C) under an additive model and alcohol use independently predicted the risk of gout (respective odds ratio for each factor=2.48, 2.03, 1.95 and 2.48). The additive composite Q141K, rs1014290 and rs475688 scores of high-risk alleles were associated with gout risk (P<0.0001). We observed the supramultiplicative interaction effect of genetic urate scores and alcohol use on gout and tophi risk (P for interaction=0.0452, 0.0033). The synergistic effect of genetic urate score 5-6 and alcohol use indicates that these combined factors correlate with gout and tophi occurrence.

Advancing the Hypothesis that Geographic Variations in Risk Factors Contribute Relatively Little to Observed Geographic Variations in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality

PubMed Central

Howard, George; Cushman, Mary; Prineas, Ronald J.; Howard, Virginia J.; Moy, Claudia S.; Sullivan, Lisa M.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; McClure, Leslie A.; Pulley, Lea Vonne; Safford, Monika M.

2009-01-01

Purpose Geographic variation in risk factors may underlie geographic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality. Methods Framingham CHD Risk Score (FCRS) and Stroke Risk Score (FSRS) were calculated for 25,770 stroke-free and 22,247 CHD-free participants from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort. Vital statistics provided age-adjusted CHD and stroke mortality rates. In an ecologic analysis, the age-adjusted, race-sex weighted, average state-level risk factor levels were compared to state-level mortality rates. Results There was no relationship between CHD and stroke mortality rates (r = 0.04; p = 0.78), but there was between CHD and stroke risk scores at the individual (r = 0.68; p < 0.0001) and state (r = 0.64, p < 0.0001) level. There was a stronger (p < 0.0001) association between state-level FCRS and state-level CHD mortality (r = 0.28, p = 0.18), than between FSRS and stroke mortality (r = 0.12, p = 0.56). Conclusions Weak associations between CHD and stroke mortality and strong associations between CHD and stroke risk scores suggest geographic variation in risk factors may not underlie geographic variations in stroke and CHD mortality. The relationship between risk factor scores and mortality was stronger for CHD than stroke. PMID:19285103

The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study

PubMed Central

Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2016-01-01

Introduction The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. Methods We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Results Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75–1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA <0.0001). Risk stratification by combining ProADM within cut-off groups and the triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Conclusions Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out). PMID:28005916

Healthy lifestyle and decreasing risk of heart failure in women: the Women's Health Initiative observational study.

PubMed

Agha, Golareh; Loucks, Eric B; Tinker, Lesley F; Waring, Molly E; Michaud, Dominique S; Foraker, Randi E; Li, Wenjun; Martin, Lisa W; Greenland, Philip; Manson, JoAnn E; Eaton, Charles B

2014-10-28

The impact of a healthy lifestyle on risk of heart failure (HF) is not well known. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of a combination of lifestyle factors on incident HF and to further investigate whether weighting each lifestyle factor has additional impact. Participants were 84,537 post-menopausal women from the WHI (Women's Health Initiative) observational study, free of self-reported HF at baseline. A healthy lifestyle score (HL score) was created wherein women received 1 point for each healthy criterion met: high-scoring Alternative Healthy Eating Index, physically active, healthy body mass index, and currently not smoking. A weighted score (wHL score) was also created in which each lifestyle factor was weighted according to its independent magnitude of effect on HF. The incidence of hospitalized HF was determined by trained adjudicators using standardized methodology. There were 1,826 HF cases over a mean follow-up of 11 years. HL score was strongly associated with risk of HF (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] [95% confidence interval (CI)] 0.49 [95% CI: 0.38 to 0.62], 0.36 [95% CI: 0.28 to 0.46], 0.24 [95% CI: 0.19 to 0.31], and 0.23 [95% CI: 0.17 to 0.30] for HL score of 1, 2, 3, and 4 vs. 0, respectively). The HL score and wHL score were similarly associated with HF risk (HR: 0.46 [95% CI: 0.41 to 0.52] for HL score; HR: 0.48 [95% CI: 0.42 to 0.55] for wHL score, comparing the highest tertile to the lowest). The HL score was also strongly associated with HF risk among women without antecedent coronary heart disease, diabetes, or hypertension. An increasingly healthy lifestyle was associated with decreasing HF risk among post-menopausal women, even in the absence of antecedent coronary heart disease, hypertension, and diabetes. Weighting the lifestyle factors had minimal impact. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Liver Surface Nodularity Score Allows Prediction of Cirrhosis Decompensation and Death.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew D; Zand, Kevin A; Florez, Edward; Sirous, Reza; Shlapak, Darya; Souza, Frederico; Roda, Manohar; Bryan, Jason; Vasanji, Amit; Griswold, Michael; Lirette, Seth T

2017-06-01

Purpose To determine whether use of the liver surface nodularity (LSN) score, a quantitative biomarker derived from routine computed tomographic (CT) images, allows prediction of cirrhosis decompensation and death. Materials and Methods For this institutional review board-approved HIPAA-compliant retrospective study, adult patients with cirrhosis and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score within 3 months of initial liver CT imaging between January 3, 2006, and May 30, 2012, were identified from electronic medical records (n = 830). The LSN score was measured by using CT images and quantitative software. Competing risk regression was used to determine the association of the LSN score with hepatic decompensation and overall survival. A risk model combining LSN scores (<3 or ≥3) and MELD scores (<10 or ≥10) was created for predicting liver-related events. Results In patients with compensated cirrhosis, 40% (129 of 326) experienced decompensation during a median follow-up period of 4.22 years. After adjustment for competing risks including MELD score, LSN score (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.79) was found to be independently predictive of hepatic decompensation. Median times to decompensation of patients at high (1.76 years, n = 48), intermediate (3.79 years, n = 126), and low (6.14 years, n = 152) risk of hepatic decompensation were significantly different (P < .001). Among the full cohort with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis, 61% (504 of 830) died during the median follow-up period of 2.26 years. After adjustment for competing risks, LSN score (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.33) and MELD score (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.11) were found to be independent predictors of death. Median times to death of patients at high (0.94 years, n = 315), intermediate (2.79 years, n = 312), and low (4.69 years, n = 203) risk were significantly different (P < .001). Conclusion The LSN score derived from routine CT images allows prediction of cirrhosis decompensation and death. © RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Validation of Risk Scoring System Excluding Female Sex From CHA2DS2-VASc in Japanese Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation – Subanalysis of the J-RHYTHM Registry.

PubMed

Tomita, Hirofumi; Okumura, Ken; Inoue, Hiroshi; Atarashi, Hirotsugu; Yamashita, Takeshi; Origasa, Hideki; Tsushima, Eiki

2015-01-01

Because the current Japanese guideline recommends CHADS2 score-based risk stratification in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients and does not list female sex as a risk for thromboembolic events, we designed the present study to compare the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VA scores in the J-RHYTHM Registry. We prospectively assessed the incidence of thromboembolic events for 2 years in 997 NVAF patients without warfarin treatment (age 68±12 years, 294 females). The predictive value of the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VA scores for thromboembolic events was evaluated by c-statistic difference and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Thromboembolic events occurred in 7/294 females (1.2%/year) and 23/703 males (1.6%/year) (odds ratio 0.72 for female to male, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.28-1.62, P=0.44). No sex difference was found in patient groups stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VA scores. There were significant c-statistic difference (0.029, Z=2.3, P=0.02) and NRI (0.11, 95% CI 0.01-0.20, P=0.02), with the CHA2DS2-VA score being superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc score. In patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores 0 and 1 (n=374), there were markedly significant c-statistic difference (0.053, Z=6.6, P<0.0001) and NRI (0.11, 95% CI 0.07-0.14, P<0.0001), again supporting superiority of CHA2DS2-VA to CHA2DS2-VASc score. In Japanese NVAF patients, the CHA2DS2-VA score, a risk scoring system excluding female sex from CHA2DS2-VASc, may be more useful in risk stratification for thromboembolic events than CHA2DS2-VASc score, especially in identifying truly low-risk patients.

Surveillance of Pediatric Cardiac Surgical Outcome Using Risk Stratifications at a Tertiary Care Center in Thailand

PubMed Central

Vijarnsorn, Chodchanok; Laohaprasitiporn, Duangmanee; Durongpisitkul, Kritvikrom; Chantong, Prakul; Soongswang, Jarupim; Cheungsomprasong, Paweena; Nana, Apichart; Sriyoschati, Somchai; Subtaweesin, Thawon; Thongcharoen, Punnarerk; Prakanrattana, Ungkab; Krobprachya, Jiraporn; Pooliam, Julaporn

2011-01-01

Objectives. To determine in-hospital mortality and complications of cardiac surgery in pediatric patients and identify predictors of hospital mortality. Methods. Records of pediatric patients who had undergone cardiac surgery in 2005 were reviewed retrospectively. The risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1) method, the Aristotle basic complexity score (ABC score), and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery Mortality score (STS-EACTS score) were used as measures. Potential predictors were analyzed by risk analysis. Results. 230 pediatric patients had undergone congenital cardiac surgery. Overall, the mortality discharge was 6.1%. From the ROC curve of the RACHS-1, the ABC level, and the STS-EACTS categories, the validities were determined to be 0.78, 0.74, and 0.67, respectively. Mortality risks were found at the high complexity levels of the three tools, bypass time >85 min, and cross clamp time >60 min. Common morbidities were postoperative pyrexia, bleeding, and pleural effusion. Conclusions. Overall mortality and morbidities were 6.1%. The RACHS-1 method, ABC score, and STS-EACTS score were helpful for risk stratification. PMID:21738856

Clinical utility of metabolic syndrome severity scores: considerations for practitioners

PubMed Central

DeBoer, Mark D; Gurka, Matthew J

2017-01-01

The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is marked by abnormalities in central obesity, high blood pressure, high triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and high fasting glucose and appears to be produced by underlying processes of inflammation, oxidative stress, and adipocyte dysfunction. MetS has traditionally been classified based on dichotomous criteria that deny that MetS-related risk likely exists as a spectrum. Continuous MetS scores provide a way to track MetS-related risk over time. We generated MetS severity scores that are sex- and race/ethnicity-specific, acknowledging that the way MetS is manifested may be different by sex and racial/ethnic subgroup. These scores are correlated with long-term risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. Clinical use of scores like these provide a potential opportunity to identify patients at highest risk, motivate patients toward lifestyle change, and follow treatment progress over time. PMID:28255250

Comparison between the Framingham and prospective cardiovascular of Münster scores for risk assessment of coronary heart disease in human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients in Pernambuco, Brazil.

PubMed

Barros, Zoraya Medeiros; de Alencar Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes; Miranda-Filho, Demócrito Barros; de Albuquerque, Maria de Fátima Pessoa Militão; Melo, Heloísa Ramos Lacerda; Carvalho, Erico Higino; Gelenske, Thais; Diniz, George; Bandeira, Francisco

2010-12-01

The Framingham score is used in most studies on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients to estimate the risk for coronary heart disease; however, it may have some limitations for detecting risk among these individuals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the agreement between the Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular of Münster (PROCAM) scores among HIV-positive individuals and to investigate the factors associated with disagreement between the two scores. A cross-sectional study was conducted in a population of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients attending the outpatient's clinics of two reference centers for HIV/AIDS in Pernambuco, Brazil. Agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores was evaluated using the kappa index. From this analysis, a variable called "disagreement between scores" was created, and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to investigate the factors associated with this variable. The prevalence of low, moderate, and high risk were, respectively, 78.7%, 13.5%, and 7.8% by Framingham score and 88.5%, 4.3%, and 7.2% by PROCAM (kappa = 0.64, P ≤ 0.0001). Agreement in the subgroup with metabolic syndrome by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) (kappa = 0.51, P ≤ 0.0001) and the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) (kappa = 0.59, P ≤ 0.0001) criteria was moderate. The Framingham score identified greater proportion of women with moderate risk. Factors independently associated with disagreement were: smoking, sex, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, and metabolic syndrome. There was a good agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores in HIV-positive patients, but a higher proportion of moderate-high risk was identified by the Framingham score. This disagreement should be evaluated in cohort studies to observe clinical outcomes over the course of time.

Tumor Microenvironment of Metastasis and Risk of Distant Metastasis of Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Xue, Xiaonan; Lin, Hung-Mo; D’Alfonso, Timothy M.; Ginter, Paula S.; Oktay, Maja H.; Robinson, Brian D.; Ginsberg, Mindy; Gertler, Frank B.; Glass, Andrew G.; Sparano, Joseph A.; Condeelis, John S.; Jones, Joan G.

2014-01-01

Background Tumor microenvironment of metastasis (TMEM), consisting of direct contact between a macrophage, an endothelial cell, and a tumor cell, has been associated with metastasis in both rodent mammary tumors and human breast cancer. We prospectively examined the association between TMEM score and risk of distant metastasis and compared risk associated with TMEM score with that associated with IHC4. Methods We conducted a case–control study nested within a cohort of 3760 patients with invasive ductal breast carcinoma diagnosed between 1980 and 2000 and followed through 2010. Case patients were women who developed a subsequent distant metastasis; control subjects were matched (1:1) on age at and calendar year of primary diagnosis. TMEM was assessed by triple immunostain and IHC4 by standard methods; slides were read by pathologists blinded to outcome. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for clinical variables. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed, and the area under the curve was estimated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results TMEM score was associated with increased risk of distant metastasis in estrogen receptor (ER)+/human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2)− tumors (multivariable OR high vs low tertile = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.39 to 5.26; P trend = .004), whereas IHC4 score had a borderline positive association (OR10 unit increase = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.13); the association for TMEM score persisted after adjustment for IHC4 score. The area under the curve for TMEM, adjusted for clinical variables, was 0.78. Neither TMEM score nor IHC4 score was independently associated with metastatic risk overall or in the triple negative or HER2+ subgroups. Conclusions TMEM score predicted risk of distant metastasis in ER+/HER2− breast cancer independently of IHC4 score and classical clinicopathologic features. PMID:24895374

Tumor microenvironment of metastasis and risk of distant metastasis of breast cancer.

PubMed

Rohan, Thomas E; Xue, Xiaonan; Lin, Hung-Mo; D'Alfonso, Timothy M; Ginter, Paula S; Oktay, Maja H; Robinson, Brian D; Ginsberg, Mindy; Gertler, Frank B; Glass, Andrew G; Sparano, Joseph A; Condeelis, John S; Jones, Joan G

2014-08-01

Tumor microenvironment of metastasis (TMEM), consisting of direct contact between a macrophage, an endothelial cell, and a tumor cell, has been associated with metastasis in both rodent mammary tumors and human breast cancer. We prospectively examined the association between TMEM score and risk of distant metastasis and compared risk associated with TMEM score with that associated with IHC4. We conducted a case-control study nested within a cohort of 3760 patients with invasive ductal breast carcinoma diagnosed between 1980 and 2000 and followed through 2010. Case patients were women who developed a subsequent distant metastasis; control subjects were matched (1:1) on age at and calendar year of primary diagnosis. TMEM was assessed by triple immunostain and IHC4 by standard methods; slides were read by pathologists blinded to outcome. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for clinical variables. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed, and the area under the curve was estimated. All statistical tests were two-sided. TMEM score was associated with increased risk of distant metastasis in estrogen receptor (ER)(+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2)(-) tumors (multivariable OR high vs low tertile = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.39 to 5.26; P trend = .004), whereas IHC4 score had a borderline positive association (OR10 unit increase = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.13); the association for TMEM score persisted after adjustment for IHC4 score. The area under the curve for TMEM, adjusted for clinical variables, was 0.78. Neither TMEM score nor IHC4 score was independently associated with metastatic risk overall or in the triple negative or HER2(+) subgroups. TMEM score predicted risk of distant metastasis in ER(+)/HER2(-) breast cancer independently of IHC4 score and classical clinicopathologic features. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of Subjective Global Assessment and Protein Energy Wasting Score to Nutrition Evaluations Conducted by Registered Dietitian Nutritionists in Identifying Protein Energy Wasting Risk in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Sum, Simon Siu-Man; Marcus, Andrea F; Blair, Debra; Olejnik, Laura A; Cao, Joyce; Parrott, J Scott; Peters, Emily N; Hand, Rosa K; Byham-Gray, Laura D

2017-09-01

To compare the 7-point subjective global assessment (SGA) and the protein energy wasting (PEW) score with nutrition evaluations conducted by registered dietitian nutritionists in identifying PEW risk in stage 5 chronic kidney disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis. This study is a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional study entitled "Development and Validation of a Predictive energy Equation in Hemodialysis". PEW risk identified by the 7-point SGA and the PEW score was compared against the nutrition evaluations conducted by registered dietitian nutritionists through data examination from the original study (reference standard). A total of 133 patients were included for the analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV), positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR and NLR) of both scoring tools were calculated when compared against the reference standard. The patients were predominately African American (n = 112, 84.2%), non-Hispanic (n = 101, 75.9%), and male (n = 80, 60.2%). Both the 7-point SGA (sensitivity = 78.6%, specificity = 59.1%, PPV = 33.9%, NPV = 91.2%, PLR = 1.9, and NLR = 0.4) and the PEW score (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 28.6%, PPV = 27.2%, NPV = 100%, PLR = 1.4, and NLR = 0) were more sensitive than specific in identifying PEW risk. The 7-point SGA may miss 21.4% patients having PEW and falsely identify 40.9% of patients who do not have PEW. The PEW score can identify PEW risk in all patients, but 71.4% of patients identified may not have PEW risk. Both the 7-point SGA and the PEW score could identify PEW risk. The 7-point SGA was more specific, and the PEW score was more sensitive. Both scoring tools were found to be clinically confident in identifying patients who were actually not at PEW risk. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: usefulness of prognostic scores].

PubMed

Badel, S; Dorta, G; Carron, P-N

2011-08-24

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially serious event, usually requiring urgent endoscopic treatment. Better stratification of the risk of complication or death could optimize management and improve patient outcomes, while ensuring adequate resource allocation. Several prognostic scores have been developed, in order to identify high risk patients, who require immediate treatment, and patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be delayed. An ideal prognostic score should be accurate, simple, reproducible, and prospectively validated in different populations. Published scores meet these requirements only partially, and thus can only be used as part of an integrative diagnostic and therapeutic process.

Assessment of the value of a genetic risk score in improving the estimation of coronary risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The American Heart Association has established criteria for the evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk. In accordance with these criteria, we assessed the association between a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and evaluated whether this GRS ...

Predicting the Risk of Clostridium difficile Infection upon Admission: A Score to Identify Patients for Antimicrobial Stewardship Efforts.

PubMed

Kuntz, Jennifer L; Smith, David H; Petrik, Amanda F; Yang, Xiuhai; Thorp, Micah L; Barton, Tracy; Barton, Karen; Labreche, Matthew; Spindel, Steven J; Johnson, Eric S

2016-01-01

Increasing morbidity and health care costs related to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have heightened interest in methods to identify patients who would most benefit from interventions to mitigate the likelihood of CDI. To develop a risk score that can be calculated upon hospital admission and used by antimicrobial stewards, including pharmacists and clinicians, to identify patients at risk for CDI who would benefit from enhanced antibiotic review and patient education. We assembled a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northwest patients with a hospital admission from July 1, 2005, through December 30, 2012, and identified CDI in the six months following hospital admission. Using Cox regression, we constructed a score to identify patients at high risk for CDI on the basis of preadmission characteristics. We calculated and plotted the observed six-month CDI risk for each decile of predicted risk. We identified 721 CDIs following 54,186 hospital admissions-a 6-month incidence of 13.3 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. Patients with the highest predicted risk of CDI had an observed incidence of 53 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. The score differentiated between patients who do and do not develop CDI, with values for the extended C-statistic of 0.75. Predicted risk for CDI agreed closely with observed risk. Our risk score accurately predicted six-month risk for CDI using preadmission characteristics. Accurate predictions among the highest-risk patient subgroups allow for the identification of patients who could be targeted for and who would likely benefit from review of inpatient antibiotic use or enhanced educational efforts at the time of discharge planning.

The UK DCD Risk Score: A new proposal to define futility in donation-after-circulatory-death liver transplantation.

PubMed

Schlegel, Andrea; Kalisvaart, Marit; Scalera, Irene; Laing, Richard W; Mergental, Hynek; Mirza, Darius F; Perera, Thamara; Isaac, John; Dutkowski, Philipp; Muiesan, Paolo

2018-03-01

Primary non-function and ischaemic cholangiopathy are the most feared complications following donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to design a new score on risk assessment in liver-transplantation DCD based on donor-and-recipient parameters. Using the UK national DCD database, a risk analysis was performed in adult recipients of DCD liver grafts in the UK between 2000 and 2015 (n = 1,153). A new risk score was calculated (UK DCD Risk Score) on the basis of a regression analysis. This is validated using the United Network for Organ Sharing database (n = 1,617) and our own DCD liver-transplant database (n = 315). Finally, the new score was compared with two other available prediction systems: the DCD risk scores from the University of California, Los Angeles and King's College Hospital, London. The following seven strongest predictors of DCD graft survival were identified: functional donor warm ischaemia, cold ischaemia, recipient model for end-stage liver disease, recipient age, donor age, previous orthotopic liver transplantation, and donor body mass index. A combination of these risk factors (UK DCD risk model) stratified the best recipients in terms of graft survival in the entire UK DCD database, as well as in the United Network for Organ Sharing and in our own DCD population. Importantly, the UK DCD Risk Score significantly predicted graft loss caused by primary non-function or ischaemic cholangiopathy in the futile group (>10 score points). The new prediction model demonstrated a better C statistic of 0.79 compared to the two other available systems (0.71 and 0.64, respectively). The UK DCD Risk Score is a reliable tool to detect high-risk and futile combinations of donor-and-recipient factors in DCD liver transplantation. It is simple to use and offers a great potential for making better decisions on which DCD graft should be rejected or may benefit from functional assessment and further optimization by machine perfusion. In this study, we provide a new prediction model for graft loss in donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) liver transplantation. Based on UK national data, the new UK DCD Risk Score involves the following seven clinically relevant risk factors: donor age, donor body mass index, functional donor warm ischaemia, cold storage, recipient age, recipient laboratory model for end-stage liver disease, and retransplantation. Three risk classes were defined: low risk (0-5 points), high risk (6-10 points), and futile (>10 points). This new model stratified best in terms of graft survival compared to other available models. Futile combinations (>10 points) achieved an only very limited 1- and 5-year graft survival of 37% and less than 20%, respectively. In contrast, an excellent graft survival has been shown in low-risk combinations (≤5 points). The new model is easy to calculate at the time of liver acceptance. It may help to decide which risk combination will benefit from additional graft treatment, or which DCD liver should be declined for a certain recipient. Copyright © 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of coronary calcium score on the prevalence of coronary artery stenosis on dual source CT coronary angiography in caucasian patients with an intermediate risk.

PubMed

Meyer, Mathias; Henzler, Thomas; Fink, Christian; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; Barraza, J Michael; Nance, John W; Apfaltrer, Paul; Schoenberg, Stefan O; Wasser, Klaus

2012-11-01

To investigate the prevalence of significant coronary artery stenosis on coronary computed tomography angiography (cCTA) in symptomatic Caucasian patients with an intermediate risk score at different levels of coronary artery calcification (CAC). In total, 383 consecutive symptomatic Caucasian patients (147 females, 60 ± 13 years) with an intermediate risk score underwent nonenhanced CT for CAC scoring immediately before contrast-enhanced cCTA on a dual-source CT scanner. Additionally clinically indicated invasive coronary angiography (ICA) was performed in 90 patients. The prevalence of significant coronary artery stenosis (>50%) on cCTA and ICA was correlated at different CAC score levels. Of 121 patients with a zero CAC score, none had significant coronary artery stenosis on cCTA or ICA. Coronary CTA diagnosed in 54 of 70 patients with high CAC score (>400), a significant stenosis. Subsequent ICA confirmed significant stenosis in 30 of 32 patients. Sensitivity and a negative predictive value of CAC score ruling out significant stenosis on cCTA were 100% and 100%, respectively, using cutoff value of zero and specificity and positive predictive value to predict significant stenosis on cCTA were 79% and 51%, respectively, using a cutoff value of >400. Significant coronary artery stenosis is extremely unlikely, with an estimated risk of 4 in 1000 patients in symptomatic Caucasian patients with an intermediate risk score and negative CAC score. To reduce radiation exposure, radiation-free tests should be considered for differential diagnosis of chest pain in these patients. Copyright © 2012 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the relative risk of sex offenders: risk ratios for static-99R.

PubMed

Hanson, R Karl; Babchishin, Kelly M; Helmus, Leslie; Thornton, David

2013-10-01

Given the widespread use of empirical actuarial risk tools in corrections and forensic mental health, it is important that evaluators and decision makers understand how scores relate to recidivism risk. In the current study, we found strong evidence for a relative risk interpretation of Static-99R scores using 8 samples from Canada, United Kingdom, and Western Europe (N = 4,037 sex offenders). Each increase in Static-99R score was associated with a stable and consistent increase in relative risk (as measured by an odds ratio or hazard ratio of approximately 1.4). Hazard ratios from Cox regression were used to calculate risk ratios that can be reported for Static-99R. We recommend that evaluators consider risk ratios as a useful, nonarbitrary metric for quantifying and communicating risk information. To avoid misinterpretation, however, risk ratios should be presented with recidivism base rates.

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

PubMed

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Disclosing genetic risk for coronary heart disease: effects on perceived personal control and genetic counseling satisfaction.

PubMed

Robinson, C L; Jouni, H; Kruisselbrink, T M; Austin, E E; Christensen, K D; Green, R C; Kullo, I J

2016-02-01

We investigated whether disclosure of coronary heart disease (CHD) genetic risk influences perceived personal control (PPC) and genetic counseling satisfaction (GCS). Participants (n = 207, age: 45-65 years) were randomized to receive estimated 10-year risk of CHD based on a conventional risk score (CRS) with or without a genetic risk score (GRS). Risk estimates were disclosed by a genetic counselor who also reviewed how GRS altered risk in those randomized to CRS+GRS. Each participant subsequently met with a physician and then completed surveys to assess PPC and GCS. Participants who received CRS+GRS had higher PPC than those who received CRS alone although the absolute difference was small (25.2 ± 2.7 vs 24.1 ± 3.8, p = 0.04). A greater proportion of CRS+GRS participants had higher GCS scores (17.3 ± 5.3 vs 15.9 ± 6.3, p = 0.06). In the CRS+GRS group, PPC and GCS scores were not correlated with GRS. Within both groups, PPC and GCS scores were similar in patients with or without family history (p = NS). In conclusion, patients who received their genetic risk of CHD had higher PPC and tended to have higher GCS. Our findings suggest that disclosure of genetic risk of CHD together with conventional risk estimates is appreciated by patients. Whether this results in improved outcomes needs additional investigation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simplification of a scoring system maintained overall accuracy but decreased the proportion classified as low risk.

PubMed

Sanders, Sharon; Flaws, Dylan; Than, Martin; Pickering, John W; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul

2016-01-01

Scoring systems are developed to assist clinicians in making a diagnosis. However, their uptake is often limited because they are cumbersome to use, requiring information on many predictors, or complicated calculations. We examined whether, and how, simplifications affected the performance of a validated score for identifying adults with chest pain in an emergency department who have low risk of major adverse cardiac events. We simplified the Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score (EDACS) by three methods: (1) giving equal weight to each predictor included in the score, (2) reducing the number of predictors, and (3) using both methods--giving equal weight to a reduced number of predictors. The diagnostic accuracy of the simplified scores was compared with the original score in the derivation (n = 1,974) and validation (n = 909) data sets. There was no difference in the overall accuracy of the simplified versions of the score compared with the original EDACS as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.74 to 0.75 for simplified versions vs. 0.75 for the original score in the validation cohort). With score cut-offs set to maintain the sensitivity of the combination of score and tests (electrocardiogram and cardiac troponin) at a level acceptable to clinicians (99%), simplification reduced the proportion of patients classified as low risk from 50% with the original score to between 22% and 42%. Simplification of a clinical score resulted in similar overall accuracy but reduced the proportion classified as low risk and therefore eligible for early discharge compared with the original score. Whether the trade-off is acceptable, will depend on the context in which the score is to be used. Developers of clinical scores should consider simplification as a method to increase uptake, but further studies are needed to determine the best methods of deriving and evaluating simplified scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of future trauma based on alcohol screening scores: A two-year prospective cohort study among US veterans

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Severe alcohol misuse as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test–Consumption (AUDIT-C) is associated with increased risk of future fractures and trauma-related hospitalizations. This study examined the association between AUDIT-C scores and two-year risk of any type of trauma among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients and assessed whether risk varied by age or gender. Methods Outpatients (215, 924 male and 9168 female) who returned mailed AUDIT-C questionnaires were followed for 24 months in the medical record for any International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-9) code related to trauma. The two-year prevalence of trauma was examined as a function of AUDIT-C scores, with low-level drinking (AUDIT-C 1–4) as the reference group. Men and women were examined separately, and age-stratified analyses were performed. Results Having an AUDIT-C score of 9–12 (indicating severe alcohol misuse) was associated with increased risk for trauma. Mean (SD) ages for men and women were 68.2 (11.5) and 57.2 (15.8), respectively. Age-stratified analyses showed that, for men ≤50 years, those with AUDIT-C scores ≥9 had an increased risk for trauma compared with those with AUDIT-C scores in the 1–4 range (adjusted prevalence, 25.7% versus 20.8%, respectively; OR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.50). For men ≥65 years with average comorbidity and education, those with AUDIT-C scores of 5–8 (adjusted prevalence, 7.9% versus 7.4%; OR = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02–1.31) and 9–12 (adjusted prevalence 11.1% versus 7.4%; OR = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.30–2.17) were at significantly increased risk for trauma compared with men ≥65 years in the reference group. Higher AUDIT-C scores were not associated with increased risk of trauma among women. Conclusions Men with severe alcohol misuse (AUDIT-C 9–12) demonstrate an increased risk of trauma. Men ≥65 showed an increased risk for trauma at all levels of alcohol misuse (AUDIT-C 5–8 and 9–12). These findings may be used as part of an evidence-based brief intervention for alcohol use disorders. More research is needed to understand the relationship between AUDIT-C scores and risk of trauma in women. PMID:22966411

Proposed prognostic scoring system evaluating risk factors for biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after salvage radiation therapy.

PubMed

Lee, Richard J; Tzou, Katherine S; Heckman, Michael G; Hobbs, Corey J; Rawal, Bhupendra; Diehl, Nancy N; Peterson, Jennifer L; Paryani, Nitesh N; Ko, Stephen J; Daugherty, Larry C; Vallow, Laura A; Wong, William; Schild, Steven; Pisansky, Thomas M; Buskirk, Steven J

2016-08-01

To update a previously proposed prognostic scoring system that predicts risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) after salvage radiation therapy (SRT) for recurrent prostate cancer when using additional patients and a PSA value of 0.2 ng/mL and rising as the definition of BCR. We included 577 patients who received SRT for a rising PSA after radical prostatectomy in this retrospective cohort study. Clinical, pathological, and SRT characteristics were evaluated for association with BCR using relative risks (RRs) from multivariable Cox regression models. With a median follow-up of 5.5 years after SRT, 354 patients (61%) experienced BCR. At 5 years after SRT, 40% of patients were free of BCR. Independent associations with BCR were identified for the PSA level before SRT (RR [doubling]: 1.25, P < 0.001), pathological tumour stage (RR [T3a vs T2] 1.21, P = 0.19; RR [T3b/T4 vs T2] 2.09, P < 0.001; overall P < 0.001), Gleason score (RR [7 vs <7] 1.63, P < 0.001; RR [8-10 vs <7] 2.28, P < 0.001; overall P < 0.001), and surgical margin status (RR [positive vs negative] 0.71, P = 0.003). We combined these four variables to create a prognostic scoring system that predicted BCR risk with a c-index of 0.66. Scores ranged from 0 to 7, and 5-year freedom from BCR for different levels of the score was as follows: Score = 0-1: 66%, Score = 2: 46%, Score = 3: 28%, Score = 4: 19%, and Score = 5-7: 15%. We developed a scoring system that provides an estimation of the risk of BCR after SRT. These findings will be useful for patients and physicians in decision making for radiation therapy in the salvage setting. © 2015 The Authors BJU International © 2015 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of protected research time on ABSITE scores during general surgery residency.

PubMed

Orkin, Bruce A; Poirier, Jennifer; Kowal-Vern, Areta; Chan, Edie; Ohara, Karen; Mendoza, Brian

2018-02-01

Objective - To determine whether residents with one or more years of dedicated research time (Research Residents, RR) improved their ABSITE scores compared to those without (Non-Research Residents, N-RR). A retrospective review of general surgery residents' ABSITE scores from 1995 to 2016 was performed. RR were compared to N-RR. Additional analysis of At Risk (AR) v Not At Risk residents (NAR) (35th percentile as PGY1-2) was also performed. Cohort - 147 residents (34 RR and 113 N-RR). There were no differences in initial ABSITE scores (p = 0.47). By definition, the AR group had lower scores than NAR. Overall, post-research RR v PGY-4 N-RR scores did not differ (p = 0.84). Only the AR residents improved their scores (p = 0.0009 v NAR p = 0.42), regardless of research group (p = 0.70). Protected research time did not improve residents' ABSITE scores, regardless of initial scores. At Risk residents improved regardless of research group status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Education as a moderator of genetic risk for higher body mass index: prospective cohort study from childhood to adulthood.

PubMed

Komulainen, K; Pulkki-Råback, L; Jokela, M; Lyytikäinen, L-P; Pitkänen, N; Laitinen, T; Hintsanen, M; Elovainio, M; Hintsa, T; Jula, A; Juonala, M; Pahkala, K; Viikari, J; Lehtimäki, T; Raitakari, O; Keltikangas-Järvinen, L

2018-04-01

The life-course development of body mass index (BMI) may be driven by interactions between genes and obesity-inducing social environments. We examined whether lower parental or own education accentuates the genetic risk for higher BMI over the life course, and whether diet and physical activity account for the educational differences in genetic associations with BMI. The study comprised 2441 participants (1319 women, 3-18 years at baseline) from the prospective, population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. BMI (kg/m 2 ) trajectories were calculated from 18 to 49 years, using data from six time points spanning 31 years. A polygenic risk score for BMI was calculated as a weighted sum of risk alleles in 97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Education was assessed via self-reports, measured prospectively from participants in adulthood and from parents when participants were children. Diet and physical activity were self-reported in adulthood. Mean BMI increased from 22.6 to 26.6 kg/m 2 during the follow-up. In growth curve analyses, the genetic risk score was associated with faster BMI increase over time (b=0.02, (95% CI, 0.01-0.02, P<0.001)). The association between the genetic risk score and BMI was more pronounced among those with lower educational level in adulthood (b=-0.12 (95% CI, -0.23-0.01); P=0.036)). No interaction effect was observed between the genetic risk score and parental education (b=0.05 (95% CI, -0.09-0.18; P=0.51)). Diet and physical activity explained little of the interaction effect between the genetic risk score and adulthood education. In this prospective study, the association of a risk score of 97 genetic variants with BMI was stronger among those with low compared with high education. This suggests lower education in adulthood accentuates the risk of higher BMI in people at genetic risk.

PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Noyce, Alastair J; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Adams-Carr, Kerala L; Mencacci, Niccolo E; Hawkes, Christopher H; Masters, Joseph M; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

2017-02-01

A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

PubMed Central

Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

2016-01-01

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

Associations of sedentary behavior, sedentary bouts and breaks in sedentary time with cardiometabolic risk in children with a family history of obesity.

PubMed

Saunders, Travis John; Tremblay, Mark Stephen; Mathieu, Marie-Ève; Henderson, Mélanie; O'Loughlin, Jennifer; Tremblay, Angelo; Chaput, Jean-Philippe

2013-01-01

Although reports in adults suggest that breaks in sedentary time are associated with reduced cardiometabolic risk, these findings have yet to be replicated in children. To investigate whether objectively measured sedentary behavior, sedentary bouts or breaks in sedentary time are independently associated with cardiometabolic risk in a cohort of Canadian children aged 8-11 years with a family history of obesity. Data from 286 boys and 236 girls living in Quebec, Canada, with at least one biological parent with obesity (QUALITY cohort) were collected from 2005-2008, and analyzed in 2013. Sedentary behavior, light and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity were measured over 7 days using accelerometry. Leisure time computer/video game use and TV viewing over the past 7 days were self-reported. Outcomes included waist circumference, body mass index Z-score, fasting insulin, fasting glucose, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, C-reactive protein and a continuous cardiometabolic risk score. After adjustment for confounders, breaks in sedentary time and the number of sedentary bouts lasting 1-4 minutes were associated with reduced cardiometabolic risk score and lower BMI Z-score in both sexes (all p<0.05). The number of sedentary bouts lasting 5-9 minutes was negatively associated with waist circumference in girls only, while the number of bouts lasting 10-14 minutes was positively associated with fasting glucose in girls, and with BMI Z-score in boys (all p<0.05). Leisure time computer/video game use was associated with increased cardiometabolic risk score and waist circumference in boys, while TV viewing was associated with increased cardiometabolic risk, waist circumference, and BMI Z-score in girls (all p<0.05). These results suggest that frequent interruptions in sedentary time are associated with a favourable cardiometabolic risk profile and highlight the deleterious relationship between screen time and cardiometabolic risk among children with a family history of obesity.

Development and validation of the San Diego Early Test Score to predict acute and early HIV infection risk in men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Hoenigl, Martin; Weibel, Nadir; Mehta, Sanjay R; Anderson, Christy M; Jenks, Jeffrey; Green, Nella; Gianella, Sara; Smith, Davey M; Little, Susan J

2015-08-01

Although men who have sex with men (MSM) represent a dominant risk group for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the risk of HIV infection within this population is not uniform. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a score to estimate incident HIV infection risk. Adult MSM who were tested for acute and early HIV (AEH) between 2008 and 2014 were retrospectively randomized 2:1 to a derivation and validation dataset, respectively. Using the derivation dataset, each predictor associated with an AEH outcome in the multivariate prediction model was assigned a point value that corresponded to its odds ratio. The score was validated on the validation dataset using C-statistics. Data collected at a single HIV testing encounter from 8326 unique MSM were analyzed, including 200 with AEH (2.4%). Four risk behavior variables were significantly associated with an AEH diagnosis (ie, incident infection) in multivariable analysis and were used to derive the San Diego Early Test (SDET) score: condomless receptive anal intercourse (CRAI) with an HIV-positive MSM (3 points), the combination of CRAI plus ≥5 male partners (3 points), ≥10 male partners (2 points), and diagnosis of bacterial sexually transmitted infection (2 points)-all as reported for the prior 12 months. The C-statistic for this risk score was >0.7 in both data sets. The SDET risk score may help to prioritize resources and target interventions, such as preexposure prophylaxis, to MSM at greatest risk of acquiring HIV infection. The SDET risk score is deployed as a freely available tool at http://sdet.ucsd.edu. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparative evaluation of Indian Diabetes Risk Score and Finnish Diabetes Risk Score for predicting risk of diabetes mellitus type II: A teaching hospital-based survey in Maharashtra.

PubMed

Pawar, Shivshakti D; Naik, Jayashri D; Prabhu, Priya; Jatti, Gajanan M; Jadhav, Sachin B; Radhe, B K

2017-01-01

India is currently becoming capital for diabetes mellitus. This significantly increasing incidence of diabetes putting an additional burden on health care in India. Unfortunately, half of diabetic individuals are unknown about their diabetic status. Hence, there is an emergent need of effective screening instrument to identify "diabetes risk" individuals. The aim is to evaluate and compare the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) and Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC). This is retrospective, record-based study of diabetes detection camp organized by a teaching hospital. Out of 780 people attended this camp voluntarily only 763 fulfilled inclusion criteria of the study. In this camp, pro forma included the World Health Organization STEP guidelines for surveillance of noncommunicable diseases. Included primary sociodemographic characters, physical measurements, and clinical examination. After that followed the random blood glucose estimation of each individual. Diagnostic accuracy of IDRS and FINDRISC compared by using receiver operative characteristic curve (ROC). Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, positive predictive and negative predictive values were compared. Clinical utility index (CUI) of each score also compared. SPSS version 22, Stata 13, R3.2.9 used. Out of 763 individuals, 38 were new diabetics. By IDRS 347 and by FINDRISC 96 people were included in high-risk category for diabetes. Odds ratio for high-risk people in FINDRISC for getting affected by diabetes was 10.70. Similarly, it was 4.79 for IDRS. Area under curves of ROCs of both scores were indifferent ( P = 0.98). Sensitivity and specificity of IDRS was 78.95% and 56.14%; whereas for FINDRISC it was 55.26% and 89.66%, respectively. CUI was excellent (0.86) for FINDRISC while IDRS it was "satisfactory" (0.54). Bland-Altman plot and Cohen's Kappa suggested fair agreement between these score in measuring diabetes risk. Diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of FINDRISC is fairly good than IDRS.

Auditing Neonatal Intensive Care: Is PREM a Good Alternative to CRIB for Mortality Risk Adjustment in Premature Infants?

PubMed

Guenther, Kilian; Vach, Werner; Kachel, Walter; Bruder, Ingo; Hentschel, Roland

2015-01-01

Comparing outcomes at different neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) requires adjustment for intrinsic risk. The Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) is a widely used risk model, but it has been criticized for being affected by therapeutic decisions. The Prematurity Risk Evaluation Measure (PREM) is not supposed to be prone to treatment bias, but has not yet been validated. We aimed to validate the PREM, compare its accuracy to that of the original and modified versions of the CRIB and CRIB-II, and examine the congruence of risk categorization. Very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants with a gestational age (GA) <33 weeks, who were admitted to NICUs in Baden-Württemberg from 2003 to 2008, were identified from the German neonatal quality assurance program. CRIB, CRIB-II and PREM scores were calculated and modified. Omitting variables that directly reflected therapeutic decisions [the applied fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2)] or that may have been prone to early-treatment bias (base excess and temperature), non-NICU-therapy-influenced scores were obtained. Score performance was assessed by the area under their ROC curve (AUC). The CRIB showed the largest AUC (0.89), which dropped significantly (to 0.85) after omitting the FiO2. The PREM birth condition model, PREM(bcm) (AUC 0.86), and the PREM birth model, PREM(bm) (AUC 0.82), also demonstrated good discrimination. PREM(bm) was superior to other non-therapy-affected scores and to GA, particularly in infants with <750 g birth weight. Congruence of risk categorization was low, especially among higher-risk cases. The CRIB score had the largest AUC, resulting from its inclusion of FiO2. PREM(bm), as the most accurate score among those unaffected by early treatment, seems to be a good alternative for strict risk adjustment in NICU auditing. It could be useful to combine scores. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

PubMed

Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A

2013-09-01

To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes UK.

CHA2DS2-VASc Score (Congestive Heart Failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 [Doubled], Diabetes Mellitus, Prior Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack [Doubled], Vascular Disease, Age 65-74, Female) for Stroke in Asian Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Korean Nationwide Sample Cohort Study.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-Hoon; Yang, Pil-Sung; Uhm, Jae-Sun; Kim, Jong-Youn; Pak, Hui-Nam; Lee, Moon-Hyoung; Joung, Boyoung; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-06-01

The CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc stroke score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled), vascular disease, age 65-74, female) is used in most guidelines for risk stratification in atrial fibrillation (AF), but most data for this score have been derived in Western populations. Ethnic differences in stroke risk may be present. Our objective was to investigate risk factors for stroke in AF and application of the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in an Asian AF population from Korea. A total of 5855 oral anticoagulant-naive nonvalvular AF patients aged ≥20 years were enrolled from Korea National Health Insurance Service Sample cohort from 2002 to 2008 and were followed up until December 2013. The incidence rates (per 100 person-years) of ischemic stroke were 3.32 in the total population, being 0.23 in low-risk (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score 0 [male] or 1 [female]) and 4.59 in high-risk patients (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc ≥2). Incidence rates of ischemic stroke or the composite thromboembolism end point showed a clear increase with increasing CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score. On multivariable analysis, significant associations between CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc risk factors and ischemic stroke were observed; however, the significance of vascular disease or diabetes mellitus was attenuated after multivariate adjustment, and female sex (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.84) had a lower risk of ischemic stroke than males. Patients who were categorized as low risk consistently had an event rate <1% per year. The performance of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in Asians is comparable with that in Western populations. The score shows good performance in defining the truly-low-risk AF patients for stroke/thromboembolism. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Increased preference of surface ablation over laser in situ keratomileusis between 2008–2011 is correlated to risk of ecatasia

PubMed Central

Moisseiev, Elad; Sela, Tzahi; Minkev, Liza; Varssano, David

2013-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the trends in corneal refractive procedure selection for the correction of myopia, focusing on the relative proportions of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) and surface ablation procedures. Methods Only eyes that underwent LASIK or surface ablation for the correction of myopia between 2008–2011 were included in this retrospective study. Additional recorded parameters included patient age, preoperative manifest refraction, corneal thickness, and calculated residual corneal bed thickness. A risk score was given to each eye, based on these parameters, according to the Ectasia Risk Factor Score System (ERFSS), without the preoperative corneal topography. Results This study included 16,163 eyes, of which 38.4% underwent LASIK and 61.6% underwent surface ablation. The risk score correlated with procedure selection, with LASIK being preferred in eyes with a score of 0 and surface ablation in eyes with a score of 2 or higher. When controlling for age, preoperative manifest refraction, corneal thickness, and all parameters, the relative proportion of surface ablation compared with LASIK was found to have grown significantly during the study period. Conclusions Our results indicate that with time, surface ablation tended to be performed more often than LASIK for the correction of myopia in our cohort. Increased awareness of risk factors and preoperative risk assessment tools, such as the ERFSS, have shifted the current practice of refractive surgery from LASIK towards surface ablation despite the former’s advantages, especially in cases in which the risk for ectasia is more than minimal (risk score 2 and higher). PMID:23345963

Association of cumulative social risk with mortality and adverse cardiovascular disease outcomes.

PubMed

Erqou, Sebhat; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B; Kip, Kevin E; Aiyer, Aryan; Reis, Steven E

2017-05-08

Quantifying the cumulative effect of social risk factors on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk can help to better understand the sources of disparities in health outcomes. Data from the Heart Strategies Concentrating on Risk Evaluation (HeartSCORE) study were used to create an index of cumulative social risk (CSR) and quantify its association with incident CVD and all-cause mortality. CSR was defined by assigning a score of 1 for the presence of each of 4 social factors: i) racial minority status (Black race), ii) single living status, iii) low income, and iv) low educational level. Hazard ratios (HRs) were computed using Cox-regression models, adjusted for CVD risk factors. Over a median follow-up period of 8.3 years, 127 incident events were observed. The incidence of the primary outcome for subgroups of participants with 0, 1, and ≥2 CSR scores was 5.31 (95% CI, 3.40-7.22), 10.32 (7.16-13.49) and 17.80 (12.94-22.67) per 1000 person-years, respectively. Individuals with CSR score of 1 had an adjusted HR of 1.85 (1.15-2.97) for incident primary outcomes, compared to those with score of 0. The corresponding HR for individuals with CSR score of 2 or more was 2.58 (1.60-4.17). An accumulation of social risk factors independently increased the likelihood of CVD events and deaths in a cohort of White and Black individuals.

Predicting risk of substantial weight gain in German adults-a multi-center cohort approach.

PubMed

Bachlechner, Ursula; Boeing, Heiner; Haftenberger, Marjolein; Schienkiewitz, Anja; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Vogt, Susanne; Thorand, Barbara; Peters, Annette; Schipf, Sabine; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Nöthlings, Ute; Neamat-Allah, Jasmine; Greiser, Karin-Halina; Kaaks, Rudolf; Steffen, Annika

2017-08-01

A risk-targeted prevention strategy may efficiently utilize limited resources available for prevention of overweight and obesity. Likewise, more efficient intervention trials could be designed if selection of subjects was based on risk. The aim of the study was to develop a risk score predicting substantial weight gain among German adults. We developed the risk score using information on 15 socio-demographic, dietary and lifestyle factors from 32 204 participants of five population-based German cohort studies. Substantial weight gain was defined as gaining ≥10% of weight between baseline and follow-up (>6 years apart). The cases were censored according to the theoretical point in time when the threshold of 10% baseline-based weight gain was crossed assuming linearity of weight gain. Beta coefficients derived from proportional hazards regression were used as weights to compute the risk score as a linear combination of the predictors. Cross-validation was used to evaluate the score's discriminatory accuracy. The cross-validated c index (95% CI) was 0.71 (0.67-0.75). A cutoff value of ≥475 score points yielded a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 63%. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 10.4% and 97.6%, respectively. The proposed risk score may support healthcare providers in decision making and referral and facilitate an efficient selection of subjects into intervention trials. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

Utility of blood pressure genetic risk score in admixed Hispanic samples.

PubMed

Beecham, A H; Wang, L; Vasudeva, N; Liu, Z; Dong, C; Goldschmidt-Clermont, P J; Pericak-Vance, M A; Rundek, T; Seo, D; Blanton, S H; Sacco, R L; Beecham, G W

2016-12-01

Hypertension is strongly influenced by genetic factors. Although hypertension prevalence in some Hispanic sub-populations is greater than in non-Hispanic whites, genetic studies on hypertension have focused primarily on samples of European descent. A recent meta-analysis of 200 000 individuals of European descent identified 29 common genetic variants that influence blood pressure, and a genetic risk score derived from the 29 variants has been proposed. We sought to evaluate the utility of this genetic risk score in Hispanics. The sample set consists of 1994 Hispanics from 2 cohorts: the Northern Manhattan Study (primarily Dominican/Puerto Rican) and the Miami Cardiovascular Registry (primarily Cuban/South American). Risk scores for systolic and diastolic blood pressure were computed as a weighted sum of the risk alleles, with the regression coefficients reported in the European meta-analysis used as weights. Association of risk score with blood pressure was tested within each cohort, adjusting for age, age 2 , sex and body mass index. Results were combined using an inverse-variance meta-analysis. The risk score was significantly associated with blood pressure in our combined sample (P=5.65 × 10 -4 for systolic and P=1.65 × 10 -3 for diastolic) but the magnitude of the effect sizes varied by degree of European, African and Native American admixture. Further studies among other Hispanic sub-populations are needed to elucidate the role of these 29 variants and identify additional genetic and environmental factors contributing to blood pressure variability in Hispanics.

MANUSCRIPT IN PRESS: DEMENTIA & GERIATRIC COGNITIVE DISORDERS

PubMed Central

O’Bryant, Sid E.; Xiao, Guanghua; Barber, Robert; Cullum, C. Munro; Weiner, Myron; Hall, James; Edwards, Melissa; Grammas, Paula; Wilhelmsen, Kirk; Doody, Rachelle; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon

2015-01-01

Background Prior work on the link between blood-based biomarkers and cognitive status has largely been based on dichotomous classifications rather than detailed neuropsychological functioning. The current project was designed to create serum-based biomarker algorithms that predict neuropsychological test performance. Methods A battery of neuropsychological measures was administered. Random forest analyses were utilized to create neuropsychological test-specific biomarker risk scores in a training set that were entered into linear regression models predicting the respective test scores in the test set. Serum multiplex biomarker data were analyzed on 108 proteins from 395 participants (197 AD cases and 198 controls) from the Texas Alzheimer’s Research and Care Consortium. Results The biomarker risk scores were significant predictors (p<0.05) of scores on all neuropsychological tests. With the exception of premorbid intellectual status (6.6%), the biomarker risk scores alone accounted for a minimum of 12.9% of the variance in neuropsychological scores. Biomarker algorithms (biomarker risk scores + demographics) accounted for substantially more variance in scores. Review of the variable importance plots indicated differential patterns of biomarker significance for each test, suggesting the possibility of domain-specific biomarker algorithms. Conclusions Our findings provide proof-of-concept for a novel area of scientific discovery, which we term “molecular neuropsychology.” PMID:24107792

Should Weights and Risk Categories Be Used for Inspection Scores To Evaluate Food Safety in Restaurants?

PubMed

da Cunha, Diogo Thimoteo; de Rosso, Veridiana Vera; Stedefeldt, Elke

2016-03-01

The objective of this study was to verify the characteristics of food safety inspections, considering risk categories and binary scores. A cross-sectional study was performed with 439 restaurants in 43 Brazilian cities. A food safety checklist with 177 items was applied to the food service establishments. These items were classified into four groups (R1 to R4) according to the main factors that can cause outbreaks involving food: R1, time and temperature aspects; R2, direct contamination; R3, water conditions and raw material; and R4, indirect contamination (i.e., structures and buildings). A score adjusted for 100 was calculated for the overall violation score and the violation score for each risk category. The average violation score (standard deviation) was 18.9% (16.0), with an amplitude of 0.0 to 76.7%. Restaurants with a low overall violation score (approximately 20%) presented a high number of violations from the R1 and R2 groups, representing the most risky violations. Practical solutions to minimize this evaluation bias were discussed. Food safety evaluation should use weighted scores and be risk-based. However, some precautions must be taken by researchers, health inspectors, and health surveillance departments to develop an adequate and reliable instrument.

Development of a Middle-Age and Geriatric Trauma Mortality Risk Score A Tool to Guide Palliative Care Consultations.

PubMed

Konda, Sanjit R; Seymour, Rachel; Manoli, Arthur; Gales, Jordan; Karunakar, Madhav A

2016-11-01

This study aimed to develop a tool to quantify risk of inpatient mortality among geriatric and middleaged trauma patients. This study sought to demonstrate the ability of the novel risk score in the early identification of high risk trauma patients for resource-sparing interventions, including referral to palliative medicine. This retrospective cohort study utilized data from a single level 1 trauma center. Regression analysis was used to create a novel risk of inpatient mortality score. A total of 2,387 low energy and 1,201 high-energy middle-aged (range: 55 to 64 years of age) and geriatric (65 years of age or odler) trauma patients comprised the study cohort. Model validation was performed using 37,474 lowenergy and 97,034 high-energy patients from the National Trauma Databank (NTDB). Potential hospital cost reduction was calculated for early referral of high risk trauma patients to palliative medicine services in comparison to no palliative medicine referral. Factors predictive of inpatient mortality among the study and validation patient cohorts included; age, Glasgow Coma Scale, and Abbreviated Injury Scale for the head and neck and chest. Within the validation cohort, the novel mortality risk score demonstrated greater predictive capacity than existing trauma scores [STTGMALE-AUROC: 0.83 vs. TRISS 0.80, (p < 0.01), STTGMAHE-AUROC: 0.86 vs. TRISS 0.85, (p < 0.01)]. Our model demonstrated early palliative medicine evaluation could produce $1,083,082 in net hospital savings per year. This novel risk score for older trauma patients has shown fidelity in prediction of inpatient mortality; in the study and validation cohorts. This tool may be used for early intervention in the care of patients at high risk of mortality and resource expenditure.

Two risk score models for predicting incident Type 2 diabetes in Japan.

PubMed

Doi, Y; Ninomiya, T; Hata, J; Hirakawa, Y; Mukai, N; Iwase, M; Kiyohara, Y

2012-01-01

Risk scoring methods are effective for identifying persons at high risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, but such approaches have not yet been established in Japan. A total of 1935 subjects of a derivation cohort were followed up for 14 years from 1988 and 1147 subjects of a validation cohort independent of the derivation cohort were followed up for 5 years from 2002. Risk scores were estimated based on the coefficients (β) of Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation cohort and were verified in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, the non-invasive risk model was established using significant risk factors; namely, age, sex, family history of diabetes, abdominal circumference, body mass index, hypertension, regular exercise and current smoking. We also created another scoring risk model by adding fasting plasma glucose levels to the non-invasive model (plus-fasting plasma glucose model). The area under the curve of the non-invasive model was 0.700 and it increased significantly to 0.772 (P < 0.001) in the plus-fasting plasma glucose model. The ability of the non-invasive model to predict Type 2 diabetes was comparable with that of impaired glucose tolerance, and the plus-fasting plasma glucose model was superior to it. The cumulative incidence of Type 2 diabetes was significantly increased with elevating quintiles of the sum scores of both models in the validation cohort (P for trend < 0.001). We developed two practical risk score models for easily identifying individuals at high risk of incident Type 2 diabetes without an oral glucose tolerance test in the Japanese population. © 2011 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2011 Diabetes UK.

[Association between risk factors of cardiovascular diseases and osteoporosis in postmenopausal Chinese women].

PubMed

Xue, Wen-qiong; Deng, Juan; Li, Jing-jing; Liu, Jing; He, Li-ping; Chen, Zong-qiu; Chen, Yu-ming

2011-06-01

To assess the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and osteoporosis. 2202 women aged 50 - 73 years were included in this cross-sectional study from the communities in Guangzhou, from July 2008 to January 2010. Cardiovascular risk factors including age, years since menopause, physical activity, anthropometrics, body composition, blood pressure, fasting serum lipids, glucose and uric acid, intima-media thickness (IMT) of carotid artery were assessed. Ultrasonic bone density (speed of sound) at the radius and tibia were determined. Osteoporosis was defined as T-score ≤ -2.5. Common factors for the cardiovascular risk factors were extracted using the factor analysis method. Eight common factors representing obesity, lean mass, blood triglycerides and uric acid, cholesterol, age, blood pressure, IMT and physical activity were extracted. Data from the Multivariate logistic regression showed a dose-dependent association of greater scores of age and IMT factors and lower score of lean mass factor with the increased risk of osteoporosis at the radius and tibia. As compared with the bottom quartile, the OR (95%CI) of radius and tibia osteoporosis were 0.62 (0.44 - 0.88) and 0.62 (0.48 - 0.80) for lean mass factor, 4.02 (2.72 - 5.94) and 3.68 (2.81 - 4.82) for age factor, 1.41 (1.00 - 2.00) and 1.54 (1.19 - 2.00) for IMT factors, respectively. Moreover, greater blood pressure score was associated with higher risk of radius osteoporosis while the higher obese score, was correlated with the increased risk of tibia osteoporosis. The cardiovascular-related risk factors of greater IMT, obesity, blood pressure and lower lean mass scores were associated with increased osteoporosis risks while called for more concern among the Chinese women.

Use of a risk scoring tool to identify higher-risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for an antiretroviral-based HIV-1 prevention intervention.

PubMed

Irungu, Elizabeth M; Heffron, Renee; Mugo, Nelly; Ngure, Kenneth; Katabira, Elly; Bulya, Nulu; Bukusi, Elizabeth; Odoyo, Josephine; Asiimwe, Stephen; Tindimwebwa, Edna; Celum, Connie; Baeten, Jared M

2016-10-17

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) reduce HIV-1 transmission within heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. Prioritizing couples at highest HIV-1 transmission risk for ART and PrEP would maximize impact and minimize costs. The Partners Demonstration Project is an open-label, delivery study of integrated PrEP and ART for HIV-1 prevention among high risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Kenya and Uganda. We evaluated the feasibility of using a validated risk score that weighs a combination of easily measurable factors (age, children, marital status, male circumcision status, condom use, plasma HIV-1 levels) to identify couples at highest risk for HIV-1 transmission for enrollment. Couples scoring ≥5 met the risk score eligibility criteria. We screened 1694 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples and enrolled 1013. Of the screened couples, 1331 (78.6 %) scored ≥5 (with an expected incidence >3 % per year) and 76 % of these entered the study. The median age of the HIV-1 uninfected partner was 29 years [IQR 26, 36] and 20 % were <25 years of age. The HIV-1 uninfected partner was male in 67 % of partnerships, 33 % of whom were uncircumcised, 57 % of couples had no children, and 65 % reported unprotected sex in the month prior to enrollment. Among HIV-1 infected partners, 41 % had plasma viral load >50,000 copies/ml. A risk scoring tool identified HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for a demonstration project of PrEP and ART with high HIV-1 risk. The tool may be feasible for research and public health settings to maximize efficiency and minimize HIV-1 prevention costs.

Predictive value of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for acute myocardial infarction in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Pang, Hui; Han, Bing; Fu, Qiang; Zong, Zhenkun

2017-07-05

The presence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) confers a poor prognosis in atrial fibrillation (AF), associated with increased mortality dramatically. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of CHADS 2 and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores for AMI in patients with AF. This retrospective study enrolled 5140 consecutive nonvalvular AF patients, 300 patients with AMI and 4840 patients without AMI. We identified the optimal cut-off values of the CHADS 2 and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores each based on receiver operating characteristic curves to predict the risk of AMI. Both CHADS 2 score and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score were associated with an increased odds ratio of the prevalence of AMI in patients with AF, after adjustment for hyperlipidaemia, hyperuricemia, hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism and obstructive sleep apnea. The present results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for CHADS 2 score was 0.787 with a similar accuracy of the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score (AUC 0.750) in predicting "high-risk" AF patients who developed AMI. However, the predictive accuracy of the two clinical-based risk scores was fair. The CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score has fair predictive value for identifying high-risk patients with AF and is not significantly superior to CHADS 2 in predicting patients who develop AMI.

Japanese scoring systems to predict resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin in Kawasaki disease were unreliable for Caucasian Israeli children.

PubMed

Arane, Karen; Mendelsohn, Kerry; Mimouni, Michael; Mimouni, Francis; Koren, Yael; Simon, Dafna Brik; Bahat, Hilla; Helou, Mona Hanna; Mendelson, Amir; Hezkelo, Nofar; Glatstein, Miguel; Berkun, Yackov; Eisenstein, Eli; Aviel, Yonatan Butbul; Brik, Riva; Hashkes, Philip J; Uziel, Yosef; Harel, Liora; Amarilyo, Gil

2018-05-24

This study assessed the validity of using established Japanese risk scoring methods to predict intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance to Kawasaki disease in Israeli children. We reviewed the medical records of 282 patients (70% male) with Kawasaki disease from six Israeli medical centres between 2004-2013. Their mean age was 2.5 years. The risk scores were calculated using the Kobayashi, Sano and Egami scoring methods and analysed to determine if a higher risk score predicted IVIG resistance in this population. Factors that predicted a lack of response to the initial IVIG dose were identified. We found that 18% did not respond to the first IVIG dose. The three scoring methods were unable to reliably predict IVIG resistance, with sensitivities of 23-32% and specificities of 67-87%. Calculating a predictive score that was specific for this population was also unsuccessful. The factors that predicted a lacked of response to the first IVIG dose included low albumin, elevated total bilirubin and ethnicity. The established risk scoring methods created for Japanese populations with Kawasaki disease were not suitable for predicting IVIG resistance in Caucasian Israeli children and we were unable to create a specific scoring method that was able to do this. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Predicting outcome of acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage without endoscopy using the clinical Rockall Score.

PubMed

Tham, T C K; James, C; Kelly, M

2006-11-01

The Rockall risk scoring system uses clinical criteria and endoscopy to identify patients at risk of adverse outcomes after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. A clinical Rockall score obtained using only the clinical criteria may be able to predict outcome without endoscopy. To validate the clinical Rockall Score in predicting outcome after acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. A retrospective observational study of consecutive patients who were admitted with non-variceal acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage was undertaken. Medical records were abstracted using a standardised form. 102 cases were identified (51 men and 51 women; mean age 59 years). 38 (37%) patients considered to be at low risk of adverse outcomes (clinical Rockall Score 0) had no adverse outcomes and did not require transfusion. Patients with a clinical Rockall Score of 1-3 had no adverse outcomes, although 13 of 45 (29%) patients required blood transfusions. Clinical Rockall Scores >3 (n = 19) were associated with adverse outcomes (rebleeding in 4 (21%), surgery in 1 (5%) and death in 2 (10%)). The clinical Rockall Score without endoscopy may be a useful prognostic indicator in this cohort of patients with acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. This score may reduce the need for urgent endoscopy in low-risk patients, which can instead be carried out on a more elective outpatient basis.

Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score.

PubMed

Szulkin, Robert; Whitington, Thomas; Eklund, Martin; Aly, Markus; Eeles, Rosalind A; Easton, Douglas; Kote-Jarai, Z Sofia; Amin Al Olama, Ali; Benlloch, Sara; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham G; Southey, Melissa C; Fitzgerald, Liesel M; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Haiman, Christopher A; Schleutker, Johanna; Wahlfors, Tiina; Tammela, Teuvo L J; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Key, Tim J; Travis, Ruth C; Neal, David E; Donovan, Jenny L; Hamdy, Freddie C; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Stanford, Janet L; Thibodeau, Stephen N; McDonnell, Shannon K; Schaid, Daniel J; Maier, Christiane; Vogel, Walther; Luedeke, Manuel; Herkommer, Kathleen; Kibel, Adam S; Cybulski, Cezary; Lubiński, Jan; Kluźniak, Wojciech; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Butterbach, Katja; Stegmaier, Christa; Park, Jong Y; Sellers, Thomas; Lin, Hui-Yi; Lim, Hui-Yi; Slavov, Chavdar; Kaneva, Radka; Mitev, Vanio; Batra, Jyotsna; Clements, Judith A; Spurdle, Amanda; Teixeira, Manuel R; Paulo, Paula; Maia, Sofia; Pandha, Hardev; Michael, Agnieszka; Kierzek, Andrzej; Gronberg, Henrik; Wiklund, Fredrik

2015-09-01

Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction. We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls. The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk. Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Probabilistic Model for Cushing's Syndrome Screening in At-Risk Populations: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

PubMed

León-Justel, Antonio; Madrazo-Atutxa, Ainara; Alvarez-Rios, Ana I; Infantes-Fontán, Rocio; Garcia-Arnés, Juan A; Lillo-Muñoz, Juan A; Aulinas, Anna; Urgell-Rull, Eulàlia; Boronat, Mauro; Sánchez-de-Abajo, Ana; Fajardo-Montañana, Carmen; Ortuño-Alonso, Mario; Salinas-Vert, Isabel; Granada, Maria L; Cano, David A; Leal-Cerro, Alfonso

2016-10-01

Cushing's syndrome (CS) is challenging to diagnose. Increased prevalence of CS in specific patient populations has been reported, but routine screening for CS remains questionable. To decrease the diagnostic delay and improve disease outcomes, simple new screening methods for CS in at-risk populations are needed. To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict CS based on clinical signs and an easy-to-use biochemical test. Observational, prospective, multicenter. Referral hospital. A cohort of 353 patients attending endocrinology units for outpatient visits. All patients were evaluated with late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) and a low-dose dexamethasone suppression test for CS. Diagnosis or exclusion of CS. Twenty-six cases of CS were diagnosed in the cohort. A risk scoring system was developed by logistic regression analysis, and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. This risk score included clinical signs and symptoms (muscular atrophy, osteoporosis, and dorsocervical fat pad) and LNSC levels. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93, with a sensitivity of 96.2% and specificity of 82.9%. We developed a risk score to predict CS in an at-risk population. This score may help to identify at-risk patients in non-endocrinological settings such as primary care, but external validation is warranted.

Assessment of the carotid artery intima-media complex through ultrasonography and the relationship with Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth.

PubMed

Ramos, Thacira D A; Dantas, Tatianne M E; Simões, Mônica O S; Carvalho, Danielle F; Medeiros, Carla C M

2016-10-01

To evaluate the presence of carotid thickening and its relationship with the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth score. We carried out a cross-sectional study involving 512 brazilian adolescents. Variables such as sex, body mass index, concentrations of non-high-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin A1c levels that make up the score, and carotid thickening through the intima-media complex measured by ultrasound were evaluated. We adopted two cut-off points to evaluate carotid thickening, being considered altered for those higher or equal to the z-score 2+ and ⩾75th percentile. The association was assessed using the χ2 test and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. High cardiovascular risk was present in 10.2% of the adolescents; carotid thickness was present in 4.3% determined by the z-score 2+ and in 25.0% determined by the 75th percentile. When measured by the z-score, carotid thickening was associated with high systolic blood pressure (p=0.024), high-non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (p=0.039), and high cardiovascular risk assessed by the score and by the 75th percentile, with body mass index >30 (p=0.005). In the multivariate analysis, high cardiovascular risk was found to be independently associated with the presence of carotid thickness evaluated by the z-score, with risk four times greater (p=0.010) of presenting with this condition compared with individuals with low risk, and this fact was not observed when factors were analysed alone. The presence of high cardiovascular risk in adolescents assessed by the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth score was associated with marked thickening of the carotid artery in healthy adolescents.

Low-Carbohydrate-Diet Score and its Association with the Risk of Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Namazi, Nazli; Larijani, Bagher; Azadbakht, Leila

2017-08-01

The association between a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) score and the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) is contradictory. This study is a systemic review of cohort studies that have focused on the association between the LCD score and DM. We searched PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar for papers published through January 2017 with no language restrictions. Cohort studies that reported relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for DM were included. Finally, 4 studies were considered for our meta-analysis. The total number of participants ranged from 479 to 85 059. Among 4 cohort studies, 8 081 cases with DM were observed over follow-up durations ranging from 3.6 to 20 years. A marginal significant association was observed between the highest LCD score and the risk of DM (RR=1.17; 95% CI: 0.9, 1.51). Moreover, the RRs for studies with energy adjustments showed a significant association (RR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.49; I 2 : 0%). Based on our findings, study qualities score of less or equal to 7 had a significant influence on the pooled effect size (RR=1.31, 95%CI: 1.15, 1.49; I 2 : 0%), whereas the overall RR in the studies with quality score more than 7 was 1.09 (95% CI: 0.73, 1.63). In conclusion, we have found that the highest LCD score was marginally associated with the risk of DM. However, more prospective cohort studies are needed to clarify the effects of the LCD score on the risk of DM. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

External Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) for Risk Prioritization in an Iranian Population

PubMed Central

Atashi, Alireza; Amini, Shahram; Tashnizi, Mohammad Abbasi; Moeinipour, Ali Asghar; Aazami, Mathias Hossain; Tohidnezhad, Fariba; Ghasemi, Erfan; Eslami, Saeid

2018-01-01

Introduction The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is a prediction model which maps 18 predictors to a 30-day post-operative risk of death concentrating on accurate stratification of candidate patients for cardiac surgery. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the performance of the EuroSCORE II risk-analysis predictions among patients who underwent heart surgeries in one area of Iran. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the required variables for all consecutive patients who underwent heart surgeries at Emam Reza hospital, Northeast Iran between 2014 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify covariates which significantly contribute to higher EuroSCORE II in our population. External validation was performed by comparing the real and expected mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination assessment. Also, Brier Score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to show the overall performance and calibration level, respectively. Results Two thousand five hundred eight one (59.6% males) were included. The observed mortality rate was 3.3%, but EuroSCORE II had a prediction of 4.7%. Although the overall performance was acceptable (Brier score=0.047), the model showed poor discriminatory power by AUC=0.667 (sensitivity=61.90, and specificity=66.24) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P<0.01). Conclusion Our study showed that the EuroSCORE II discrimination power is less than optimal for outcome prediction and less accurate for resource allocation programs. It highlights the need for recalibration of this risk stratification tool aiming to improve post cardiac surgery outcome predictions in Iran. PMID:29617500

Does inclusion of education and marital status improve SCORE performance in central and eastern europe and former soviet union? findings from MONICA and HAPIEE cohorts.

PubMed

Vikhireva, Olga; Broda, Grazyna; Kubinova, Ruzena; Malyutina, Sofia; Pająk, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Skodova, Zdena; Simonova, Galina; Bobak, Martin; Pikhart, Hynek

2014-01-01

The SCORE scale predicts the 10-year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), based on conventional risk factors. The high-risk version of SCORE is recommended for Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU), due to high CVD mortality rates in these countries. Given the pronounced social gradient in cardiovascular mortality in the region, it is important to consider social factors in the CVD risk prediction. We investigated whether adding education and marital status to SCORE benefits its prognostic performance in two sets of population-based CEE/FSU cohorts. The WHO MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) cohorts from the Czech Republic, Poland (Warsaw and Tarnobrzeg), Lithuania (Kaunas), and Russia (Novosibirsk) were followed from the mid-1980s (577 atherosclerotic CVD deaths among 14,969 participants with non-missing data). The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study follows Czech, Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002-05 (395 atherosclerotic CVD deaths in 19,900 individuals with non-missing data). In MONICA and HAPIEE, the high-risk SCORE ≥5% at baseline strongly and significantly predicted fatal CVD both before and after adjustment for education and marital status. After controlling for SCORE, lower education and non-married status were significantly associated with CVD mortality in some samples. SCORE extension by these additional risk factors only slightly improved indices of calibration and discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement <5% in men and ≤1% in women). Extending SCORE by education and marital status failed to substantially improve its prognostic performance in population-based CEE/FSU cohorts.

Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Gross Pulmonary Lesions in Slaughtered Pigs in Smallholder and Commercial Farms in Two Provinces in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Alawneh, John I.; Parke, Christopher R.; Lapuz, Eduardo J.; David, Jose E.; Basinang, Voltaire G.; Baluyut, Augusto S.; Barnes, Tamsin S.; Villar, Edwin C.; Lopez, Minnie L.; Meers, Joanne; Blackall, Patrick J.

2018-01-01

A cross-sectional study of lungs from 1,887 randomly selected pigs from 471 farms from two provinces in the Philippines was carried out to estimate the prevalence of gross pathological lesions, identify potential risk factors and spatial clustering associated with high lung or pleurisy score farms. Lungs from pigs were scored at slaughter. Interviews with the farm managers were conducted to collect information about farm management and biosecurity practices. Of lungs examined, 48% had a lung score above 6 (maximum was 55) and 22% showed pleurisy. When data were aggregated at the farm level, commercial farms were at higher risk of being high lung score farms and high pleurisy farms compared to smallholder farms (P < 0.01). Variables that were associated with an increased risk of a farm being a high lung score farm included the presence of a market pen on the farm, not vaccinating against hog cholera and the presence of another piggery within 500 m. Practicing “feedback” (feeding pig manure, viscera or aborted material to pigs), presence of another piggery within 500 m, and allowing commercial livestock vehicles on farm were all associated with an increased risk of being a high pleurisy farm. Spatial analyses revealed a primary 9.6 km-radius cluster of 39 farms with high lung and pleurisy scores in the southeast of Bulacan province. High lung and pleurisy score farms could be targeted to improve on-farm disease control programs to reduce the risk of respiratory diseases. Clusters of high scoring farms could be prioritized for further investigations or for coordinating intervention efforts. PMID:29497615

Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Gross Pulmonary Lesions in Slaughtered Pigs in Smallholder and Commercial Farms in Two Provinces in the Philippines.

PubMed

Alawneh, John I; Parke, Christopher R; Lapuz, Eduardo J; David, Jose E; Basinang, Voltaire G; Baluyut, Augusto S; Barnes, Tamsin S; Villar, Edwin C; Lopez, Minnie L; Meers, Joanne; Blackall, Patrick J

2018-01-01

A cross-sectional study of lungs from 1,887 randomly selected pigs from 471 farms from two provinces in the Philippines was carried out to estimate the prevalence of gross pathological lesions, identify potential risk factors and spatial clustering associated with high lung or pleurisy score farms. Lungs from pigs were scored at slaughter. Interviews with the farm managers were conducted to collect information about farm management and biosecurity practices. Of lungs examined, 48% had a lung score above 6 (maximum was 55) and 22% showed pleurisy. When data were aggregated at the farm level, commercial farms were at higher risk of being high lung score farms and high pleurisy farms compared to smallholder farms ( P  < 0.01). Variables that were associated with an increased risk of a farm being a high lung score farm included the presence of a market pen on the farm, not vaccinating against hog cholera and the presence of another piggery within 500 m. Practicing "feedback" (feeding pig manure, viscera or aborted material to pigs), presence of another piggery within 500 m, and allowing commercial livestock vehicles on farm were all associated with an increased risk of being a high pleurisy farm. Spatial analyses revealed a primary 9.6 km-radius cluster of 39 farms with high lung and pleurisy scores in the southeast of Bulacan province. High lung and pleurisy score farms could be targeted to improve on-farm disease control programs to reduce the risk of respiratory diseases. Clusters of high scoring farms could be prioritized for further investigations or for coordinating intervention efforts.

Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

PubMed Central

Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

PubMed

Kleber, M E; Goliasch, G; Grammer, T B; Pilz, S; Tomaschitz, A; Silbernagel, G; Maurer, G; März, W; Niessner, A

2014-08-01

Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

Anaemia to predict outcome in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Ennezat, Pierre Vladimir; Maréchaux, Sylvestre; Pinçon, Claire; Finzi, Jonathan; Barrailler, Stéphanie; Bouabdallaoui, Nadia; Van Belle, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles; Collet, Jean-Philippe

2013-01-01

Owing to the heterogeneous population of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), risk stratification with tools such as the GRACE risk score is recommended to guide therapeutic management and improve outcome. To evaluate whether anaemia refines the value of the GRACE risk model to predict midterm outcome after an ACS. A prospective registry of 1064 ACS patients (63 ± 14 years; 73% men; 57% ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction [MI]) was studied. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin less than 13 mg/dL in men or less than 12 mg/dL in women. The primary endpoint was 6-month death or rehospitalization for MI. The primary endpoint was reached in 132 patients, including 68 deaths. Anaemia was associated with adverse clinical outcomes (hazard ratio 3.008, 95% confidence interval 2.137-4.234; P<0.0001) in univariate analysis and remained independently associated with outcome after adjustment for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (hazard ratio 2.870, 95% confidence interval 1.815-4.538; P<0.0001). Anaemia provided additional prognostic information to the GRACE score as demonstrated by a systematic improvement in global model fit and discrimination (c-statistic increasing from 0.633 [0.571;0.696] to 0.697 [0.638;0.755]). Subsequently, adding anaemia to the GRACE score led to reclassification of 595 patients into different risk categories; 16.5% patients at low risk (≤ 5% risk of death or rehospitalization for MI) were upgraded to intermediate (>5-10%) or high risk (>10%); 79.5% patients at intermediate risk were reclassified as low (55%) or high risk (24%); and 45.5% patients at high risk were downgraded to intermediate risk. Overall, 174 patients were reclassified into a higher risk category (17.3%) and 421 into a lower risk category (41.9%). Anaemia provides independent additional prognostic information to the GRACE score. Combining anaemia with the GRACE score refines its predictive value, which often overestimates the risk. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Two-Step Approach for the Prediction of Future Type 2 Diabetes Risk

PubMed Central

Abdul-Ghani, Muhammad A.; Abdul-Ghani, Tamam; Stern, Michael P.; Karavic, Jasmina; Tuomi, Tiinamaija; Bo, Insoma; DeFronzo, Ralph A.; Groop, Leif

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1-h PG). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The model was developed in a cohort of 1,562 nondiabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and validated in 2,395 nondiabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further refine their future T2DM risk. RESULTS We used the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) to generate the initial risk score. A risk-score value of 0.065 was found to be an optimal cut point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals. A 1-h PG concentration >140 mg/dL in high-risk individuals (whose risk score was >0.065) was the optimal cut point for identification of subjects at increased risk. The two cut points had 77.8, 77.4, and 44.8% (for the SAHS) and 75.8, 71.6, and 11.9% (for the Botnia Study) sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, respectively, in the SAHS and Botnia Study. CONCLUSIONS A two-step model, based on the combination of the SADPM and 1-h PG, is a useful tool for the identification of high-risk Mexican-American and Caucasian individuals. PMID:21788628

Use and Customization of Risk Scores for Predicting Cardiovascular Events Using Electronic Health Record Data.

PubMed

Wolfson, Julian; Vock, David M; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Kottke, Thomas; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Johnson, Paul; Adomavicius, Gediminas; O'Connor, Patrick J

2017-04-24

Clinicians who are using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate risk for their patients based on electronic health data (EHD) face 4 questions. (1) Do published risk scores applied to EHD yield accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk? (2) Are FRS risk estimates, which are based on data that are up to 45 years old, valid for a contemporary patient population seeking routine care? (3) Do the PCE make the FRS obsolete? (4) Does refitting the risk score using EHD improve the accuracy of risk estimates? Data were extracted from the EHD of 84 116 adults aged 40 to 79 years who received care at a large healthcare delivery and insurance organization between 2001 and 2011. We assessed calibration and discrimination for 4 risk scores: published versions of FRS and PCE and versions obtained by refitting models using a subset of the available EHD. The published FRS was well calibrated (calibration statistic K=9.1, miscalibration ranging from 0% to 17% across risk groups), but the PCE displayed modest evidence of miscalibration (calibration statistic K=43.7, miscalibration from 9% to 31%). Discrimination was similar in both models (C-index=0.740 for FRS, 0.747 for PCE). Refitting the published models using EHD did not substantially improve calibration or discrimination. We conclude that published cardiovascular risk models can be successfully applied to EHD to estimate cardiovascular risk; the FRS remains valid and is not obsolete; and model refitting does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of risk estimates. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

The Combined Association of Modifiable Risk Factors with Breast Cancer Risk in the Women's Health Initiative.

PubMed

Arthur, Rhonda; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Manson, JoAnn E; Luo, Juhua; Snetselaar, Linda; Hastert, Theresa; Caan, Bette; Qi, Lihong; Rohan, Thomas

2018-06-01

Although several modifiable risk factors have been independently associated with risk of breast cancer, few studies have investigated their joint association with breast cancer risk. Using a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score, we assessed the association of a combination of selected modifiable risk factors (diet, alcohol, physical activity, BMI, and smoking) with risk of invasive breast cancer in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). This study comprised 131,833 postmenopausal women, of whom 8,168 had breast cancer, who were enrolled in the WHI Observational Study or the WHI clinical trials. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of the score with the risk of developing breast cancer overall and according to specific breast cancer clinicopathologic characteristics. There was a 4% reduction in the risk of breast cancer per unit increase in the HLI score. Compared with those with an HLI score in the lowest quintile level, those in the highest quintile level had 30%, 37%, and 30% lower risk for overall, ER + /PR + , and HER2 + breast cancer, respectively (HR = 0.70; 95% CI, 0.64-0.76; 0.63, 0.57-0.69; and 0.70; 0.55-0.90, respectively). We also observed inverse associations between the score and risk of breast cancer irrespective of nodal status, tumor grade, and stage of the disease. Most individual lifestyle factors were independently associated with the risk of breast cancer. Our findings support the view that promoting healthy lifestyle practices may be beneficial with respect to lowering risk of breast cancer among postmenopausal women. Cancer Prev Res; 11(6); 317-26. ©2018 AACR See related editorial by Friedenreich and McTiernan, p. 313 . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Conditional risk assessment of adolescents’ electronic cigarette perceptions

PubMed Central

Chaffee, Benjamin W.; Gansky, Stuart A.; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie; Couch, Elizabeth T.; Essex, Gwen; Walsh, Margaret M.

2015-01-01

Objectives Adapt an established instrument for measuring adolescents’ cigarette-related perceptions for new application with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). Methods In this exploratory study, 104 male high school students (40% tobacco ever-users) estimated the probability of potential e-cigarette risks (eg, lung cancer) or benefits (eg, look cool). We calculated associations between risk/benefit composite scores, ever-use, and use intention for e-cigarettes and analogously for combustible cigarettes. Results E-cigarette ever-use was associated with lower perceived risks, with adjusted differences versus never-users greater for e-cigarettes than cigarettes. Risk composite score was inversely associated, and benefit score positively associated, with e-cigarette ever-use and use intention. Conclusion Conditional risk assessment characterized adolescents’ perceived e-cigarette risk/benefit profile, with potential utility for risk-perception measurement in larger future studies. PMID:25741686

Risk selection into consumer-directed health plans: an analysis of family choices within large employers.

PubMed

McDevitt, Roland D; Haviland, Amelia M; Lore, Ryan; Laudenberger, Laura; Eisenberg, Matthew; Sood, Neeraj

2014-04-01

To identify the degree of selection into consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) versus traditional plans over time, and factors that influence choice and temper risk selection. Sixteen large employers offering both CDHP and traditional plans during the 2004–2007 period, more than 200,000 families. We model CDHP choice with logistic regression; predictors include risk scores, in addition to family, choice setting, and plan characteristics. Additional models stratify by account type or single enrollee versus family. Risk scores, family characteristics, and enrollment decisions are derived from medical claims and enrollment files. Interviews with human resources executives provide additional data. CDHP risk scores were 74 percent of traditional plan scores in the first year, and this difference declined over time. Employer contributions to accounts and employee premium savings fostered CDHP enrollment and reduced risk selection. Having to make an active choice of plan increased CDHP enrollment but also increased risk selection. Risk selection was greater for singles than families and did not differ between HRA and HSA-based CDHPs. Risk selection was not severe and it was well managed. Employers have effective methods to encourage CDHP enrollment and temper selection against traditional plans.

Clinical audit in gynecological cancer surgery: development of a risk scoring system to predict adverse events.

PubMed

Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan, Srinivas; Bouman, Chantal; De Jong, Suzanne; Sanday, Karen; Nicklin, Jim; Land, Russell; Obermair, Andreas

2009-12-01

Advanced gynecological surgery undertaken in a specialized gynecologic oncology unit may be associated with significant perioperative morbidity. Validated risk prediction models are available for general surgical specialties but currently not for gynecological cancer surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for adverse events (AEs) of patients treated for suspected or proven gynecological cancer and to develop a clinical risk score (RS) to predict such AEs. AEs were prospectively recorded and matched with demographical, clinical and histopathological data on 369 patients who had an abdominal or laparoscopic procedure for proven or suspected gynecological cancer at a tertiary gynecological cancer center. Stepwise multiple logistic regression was used to determine the best predictors of AEs. For the risk score (RS), the coefficients from the model were scaled using a factor of 2 and rounded to the nearest integer to derive the risk points. Sum of all the risk points form the RS. Ninety-five patients (25.8%) had at least one AE. Twenty-nine (7.9%) and 77 (20.9%) patients experienced intra- and postoperative AEs respectively with 11 patients (3.0%) experiencing both. The independent predictors for any AE were complexity of the surgical procedure, elevated SGOT (serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, > or /=35 U/L), higher ASA scores and overweight. The risk score can vary from 0 to 14. The risk for developing any AE is described by the formula 100 / (1 + e((3.697 - (RS /2)))). RS allows for quantification of the risk for AEs. Risk factors are generally not modifiable with the possible exception of obesity.

Using coronary artery calcification combined with pretest clinical risk assessment as a means of determining investigation and treatment in patients presenting with chest pain in a rural setting.

PubMed

Sekar, Baskar; Payne, Mark; Hanna, Azad; Azzu, Abdul; Pike, Martin; Rees, Michael

2015-01-01

462 patients presenting with chest pain to a rural district general hospital underwent calcium scoring and pretest clinical risk assessment in order to stratify subsequent investigations and treatment was retrospectively reviewed. The patients were followed up for two years and further investigations and outcomes recorded. Of the 206 patients with zero calcium score, 132 patients were immediately discharged from cardiac follow-up with no further investigation on the basis of their calcium score, low pretest risk of coronary artery disease, and no significant incidental findings. After further tests, 267 patients were discharged with no further cardiac therapy, 88 patients were discharged with additional medical therapy, and 19 patients underwent coronary artery by-pass grafting or percutaneous intervention. 164 patients with incidental findings on the chest CT (computed tomography) accompanying calcium scoring were reviewed, of which 88 patients underwent further tests and follow-up for noncardiac causes of chest pain. The correlations between all major risk factors and calcium scores were weak except for a combination of diabetes and hypertension in the male gender (P = 0.012), The use of calcium scoring and pretest risk appeared to reduce the number of unnecessary cardiac investigations in our patients: however, the calcium scoring test produced a high number of incidental findings on the associated CT scans.

Using Coronary Artery Calcification Combined with Pretest Clinical Risk Assessment as a Means of Determining Investigation and Treatment in Patients Presenting with Chest Pain in a Rural Setting

PubMed Central

Sekar, Baskar; Hanna, Azad; Azzu, Abdul; Rees, Michael

2015-01-01

462 patients presenting with chest pain to a rural district general hospital underwent calcium scoring and pretest clinical risk assessment in order to stratify subsequent investigations and treatment was retrospectively reviewed. The patients were followed up for two years and further investigations and outcomes recorded. Of the 206 patients with zero calcium score, 132 patients were immediately discharged from cardiac follow-up with no further investigation on the basis of their calcium score, low pretest risk of coronary artery disease, and no significant incidental findings. After further tests, 267 patients were discharged with no further cardiac therapy, 88 patients were discharged with additional medical therapy, and 19 patients underwent coronary artery by-pass grafting or percutaneous intervention. 164 patients with incidental findings on the chest CT (computed tomography) accompanying calcium scoring were reviewed, of which 88 patients underwent further tests and follow-up for noncardiac causes of chest pain. The correlations between all major risk factors and calcium scores were weak except for a combination of diabetes and hypertension in the male gender (P = 0.012), The use of calcium scoring and pretest risk appeared to reduce the number of unnecessary cardiac investigations in our patients: however, the calcium scoring test produced a high number of incidental findings on the associated CT scans. PMID:25722981

Abuse, Nocturnal Stress Hormones, and Coronary Heart Disease Risk Among Women with HIV

PubMed Central

Dale, Sannisha K.; Weber, Kathleen M.; Cohen, Mardge H.; Brody, Leslie R.

2017-01-01

This study investigated the relationships among abuse, nocturnal levels of cortisol and norepinephrine (NE), and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk as measured by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) among women with HIV. Participants (n=53) from the Chicago Women's Interagency HIV Study, a longitudinal prospective cohort study initiated in 1994, were enrolled in this study during 2012. At WIHS baseline and annual follow-up visits women were asked about recent experiences of abuse. Summary variables captured the proportion of visits for which women reported recent (past 12 months) physical, sexual, and domestic abuse. Cortisol and NE were assayed in overnight urine samples and adjusted for creatinine levels. Recent abuse was not significantly associated with levels of cortisol, NE, or NE/cortisol ratio. However, higher NE/cortisol ratio was significantly related to higher CHD risk score, higher cortisol was significantly related to lower CHD risk score, and NE was not associated with CHD risk score. In addition, higher proportions of visits with recent sexual abuse, physical abuse, and domestic abuse were significantly related to higher CHD risk score. The association between abuse exposure and CHD risk in the context of HIV infection is likely complex and may involve dysregulation of multiple neurobiological systems. Future research is needed to better understand these relationships and prevention and intervention efforts are needed to address abuse among women with HIV. PMID:27733045

Genetic predisposition to coronary heart disease and stroke using an additive genetic risk score: a population-based study in Greece

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Objective: To determine the extent to which the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) increases in relation to a genetic risk score (GRS) that additively integrates the influence of high-risk alleles in nine documented single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for CHD, and to examine whether t...

77 FR 18109 - Assessments, Large Bank Pricing

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-27

... higher-risk assets to Tier 1 capital and reserves.\\7\\ Higher-risk assets are defined as the sum of... defined as the higher of: (a) The higher-risk assets to Tier 1 capital and reserves score or (b) the... higher of: (a) The higher-risk assets to Tier 1 capital and reserves score or (b) the largest or top 20...

A web-based study of bipolarity and impulsivity in athletes engaging in extreme and high-risk sports.

PubMed

Dudek, Dominika; Siwek, Marcin; Jaeschke, Rafał; Drozdowicz, Katarzyna; Styczeń, Krzysztof; Arciszewska, Aleksandra; Chrobak, Adrian A; Rybakowski, Janusz K

2016-06-01

We hypothesised that men and women who engage in extreme or high-risk sports would score higher on standardised measures of bipolarity and impulsivity compared to age and gender matched controls. Four-hundred and eighty extreme or high-risk athletes (255 males and 225 females) and 235 age-matched control persons (107 males and 128 females) were enrolled into the web-based case-control study. The Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ) and Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) were administered to screen for bipolarity and impulsive behaviours, respectively. Results indicated that extreme or high-risk athletes had significantly higher scores of bipolarity and impulsivity, and lower scores on cognitive complexity of the BIS-11, compared to controls. Further, there were positive correlations between the MDQ and BIS-11 scores. These results showed greater rates of bipolarity and impulsivity, in the extreme or high-risk athletes, suggesting these measures are sensitive to high-risk behaviours.

CHA2 DS2 -VASc score and clinical outcomes of patients with chest pain discharged from internal medicine wards following acute coronary syndrome rule-out.

PubMed

Topaz, Guy; Haisraely, Ory; Shacham, Yacov; Beery, Gil; Shilo, Lotan; Kassem, Nuha; Pereg, David; Kitay-Cohen, Yona

2018-04-01

Chest-pain patients deemed safe for discharge from internal medicine wards might still be at risk for adverse outcomes. CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score improves risk stratification of low-risk chest-pain patients discharged after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) rule-out. We accessed medical records of patients who were admitted to internal medicine wards at a single medical center during 2010-2016 and discharged following an ACS rule-out. Patients were classified according to CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score: 0-1 (low), 2-3 (intermediate), >3 (high). Primary endpoint was occurrence of ACS at 1 year; 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality (ACM) were secondary outcomes. Of 12 449 patients, 7057 (57%) had low, 3781 (30%) intermediate, and 1611 (13%) high CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores. Compared with a low score, intermediate and high scores were associated with significantly increased risk for 1-year ACS during the first year (OR: 2.89, 95% CI: 1.91-4.37, P < 0.01 and OR: 4.84, 95% CI: 3.02-7.74, P < 0.01, respectively). Each 1-point increase in CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc was associated with a 37% increased risk for 1-year ACS. A higher CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score was associated with significantly higher 30-day ACM. Hazard ratios for 30-day ACM were 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.4, P = 0.03) and 4.4 (95% CI: 2.4-7.9, P < 0.01) for intermediate and high CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores, respectively, compared with a low score. Each 1-point increase in CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score was associated with 43% increased risk for 30-day mortality. High CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score (>3) was associated with adverse outcomes among chest-pain patients discharged from internal medicine wards following ACS rule-out. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Heinz Nixdorf Recall study and its potential impact on the adoption of atherosclerosis imaging in European primary prevention guidelines.

PubMed

Mahabadi, Amir A; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Dragano, Nico; Kälsch, Hagen; Bauer, Marcus; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund

2011-10-01

Non-contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) imaging of the heart enables noninvasive quantification of coronary artery calcification (CAC), a surrogate marker of the atherosclerotic burden in the coronary artery tree. Multiple studies have underlined the ability of CAC score for individual risk stratification and, accordingly, the American Heart Association recommended cardiac CT for risk assessment in individuals with an intermediate risk of cardiovascular events as measured by Framingham Risk Score. However, limitations in transcribing risk stratification algorithms based on American cohort studies into European populations have been acknowledged in the past. Moreover, data on implications for reclassification into higher- or lower-risk groups based on CAC scores were lacking. The Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study is a population-based cohort study that investigated the ability of CAC scoring in risk prediction for major cardiovascular events above and beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors. According to Heinz Nixdorf Recall findings, CAC can be used for reclassification, especially in those in the intermediate-risk group, to advise on lifestyle changes for the reclassified low-risk category, or to implement intensive treatments for the reclassified high-risk individuals. This article discusses the present findings of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study with respect to the current literature, risk stratification algorithms, and current European guidelines for risk prediction.

Pneumococcal pneumonia - Are the new severity scores more accurate in predicting adverse outcomes?

PubMed

Ribeiro, C; Ladeira, I; Gaio, A R; Brito, M C

2013-01-01

The site-of-care decision is one of the most important factors in the management of patients with community-acquired pneumonia. The severity scores are validated prognostic tools for community-acquired pneumonia mortality and treatment site decision. The aim of this paper was to compare the discriminatory power of four scores - the classic PSI and CURB65 ant the most recent SCAP and SMART-COP - in predicting major adverse events: death, ICU admission, need for invasive mechanical ventilation or vasopressor support in patients admitted with pneumococcal pneumonia. A five year retrospective study of patients admitted for pneumococcal pneumonia. Patients were stratified based on admission data and assigned to low-, intermediate-, and high-risk classes for each score. Results were obtained comparing low versus non-low risk classes. We studied 142 episodes of hospitalization with 2 deaths and 10 patients needing mechanical ventilation and vasopressor support. The majority of patients were classified as low risk by all scores - we found high negative predictive values for all adverse events studied, the most negative value corresponding to the SCAP score. The more recent scores showed better accuracy for predicting ICU admission and need for ventilation or vasopressor support (mostly for the SCAP score with higher AUC values for all adverse events). The rate of all adverse outcomes increased directly with increasing risk class in all scores. The new gravity scores appear to have a higher discriminatory power in all adverse events in our study, particularly, the SCAP score. Copyright © 2012 Sociedade Portuguesa de Pneumologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Multilocus genetic risk scores for venous thromboembolism risk assessment.

PubMed

Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre-Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

2014-10-23

Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL-rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT-rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age- and sex-matched case-control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature-based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5-rs6025 and F2-rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

2014-01-01

Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

Identifying Aboriginal-specific AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers using measures of agreement with the 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test.

PubMed

Calabria, Bianca; Clifford, Anton; Shakeshaft, Anthony P; Conigrave, Katherine M; Simpson, Lynette; Bliss, Donna; Allan, Julaine

2014-09-01

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is a 10-item alcohol screener that has been recommended for use in Aboriginal primary health care settings. The time it takes respondents to complete AUDIT, however, has proven to be a barrier to its routine delivery. Two shorter versions, AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3, have been used as screening instruments in primary health care. This paper aims to identify the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores that most closely identify individuals classified as being at-risk drinkers, high-risk drinkers, or likely alcohol dependent by the 10-item AUDIT. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted from June 2009 to May 2010 and from July 2010 to June 2011. Aboriginal Australian participants (N = 156) were recruited through an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service, and a community-based drug and alcohol treatment agency in rural New South Wales (NSW), and through community-based Aboriginal groups in Sydney NSW. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of each score on the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 were calculated, relative to cutoff scores on the 10-item AUDIT for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to measure the detection characteristics of AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 for the three categories of risk. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were high for drinkers classified as being at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent. Recommended cutoff scores for Aboriginal Australians are as follows: at-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 5, AUDIT-3 ≥ 1; high-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 6, AUDIT-3 ≥ 2; and likely dependent drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 9, AUDIT-3 ≥ 3. Adequate sensitivity and specificity were achieved for recommended cutoff scores. AUROC curves were above 0.90.

Pediatric Heart Donor Assessment Tool (PH-DAT): A novel donor risk scoring system to predict 1-year mortality in pediatric heart transplantation.

PubMed

Zafar, Farhan; Jaquiss, Robert D; Almond, Christopher S; Lorts, Angela; Chin, Clifford; Rizwan, Raheel; Bryant, Roosevelt; Tweddell, James S; Morales, David L S

2018-03-01

In this study we sought to quantify hazards associated with various donor factors into a cumulative risk scoring system (the Pediatric Heart Donor Assessment Tool, or PH-DAT) to predict 1-year mortality after pediatric heart transplantation (PHT). PHT data with complete donor information (5,732) were randomly divided into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort (3:1). From the derivation cohort, donor-specific variables associated with 1-year mortality (exploratory p-value < 0.2) were incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model. Scores were assigned to independent predictors (p < 0.05) based on relative odds ratios (ORs). The final model had an acceptable predictive value (c-statistic = 0.62). The significant 5 variables (ischemic time, stroke as the cause of death, donor-to-recipient height ratio, donor left ventricular ejection fraction, glomerular filtration rate) were used for the scoring system. The validation cohort demonstrated a strong correlation between the observed and expected rates of 1-year mortality (r = 0.87). The risk of 1-year mortality increases by 11% (OR 1.11 [1.08 to 1.14]; p < 0.001) in the derivation cohort and 9% (OR 1.09 [1.04 to 1.14]; p = 0.001) in the validation cohort with an increase of 1-point in score. Mortality risk increased 5 times from the lowest to the highest donor score in this cohort. Based on this model, a donor score range of 10 to 28 predicted 1-year recipient mortality of 11% to 31%. This novel pediatric-specific, donor risk scoring system appears capable of predicting post-transplant mortality. Although the PH-DAT may benefit organ allocation and assessment of recipient risk while controlling for donor risk, prospective validation of this model is warranted. Copyright © 2018 International Society for the Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Non-Laboratory and Laboratory Prediction Models for Current and Future Diabetes Mellitus: A Cross-Sectional and Retrospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Hahn, Seokyung; Moon, Min Kyong; Park, Kyong Soo; Cho, Young Min

2016-01-01

Background Various diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters have been developed, but only a few studies performed cross-validation of these scores and a comparison with laboratory parameters. We evaluated the performance of diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters, including a recently published Korean risk score (KRS), and compared them with laboratory parameters. Methods The data of 26,675 individuals who visited the Seoul National University Hospital Healthcare System Gangnam Center for a health screening program were reviewed for cross-sectional validation. The data of 3,029 individuals with a mean of 6.2 years of follow-up were reviewed for longitudinal validation. The KRS and 16 other risk scores were evaluated and compared with a laboratory prediction model developed by logistic regression analysis. Results For the screening of undiagnosed diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 81%, a specificity of 58%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) of 0.754. Other scores showed AROCs that ranged from 0.697 to 0.782. For the prediction of future diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 74%, a specificity of 54%, and an AROC of 0.696. Other scores had AROCs ranging from 0.630 to 0.721. The laboratory prediction model composed of fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels showed a significantly higher AROC (0.838, P < 0.001) than the KRS. The addition of the KRS to the laboratory prediction model increased the AROC (0.849, P = 0.016) without a significant improvement in the risk classification (net reclassification index: 4.6%, P = 0.264). Conclusions The non-laboratory risk scores, including KRS, are useful to estimate the risk of undiagnosed diabetes but are inferior to the laboratory parameters for predicting future diabetes. PMID:27214034

Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

PubMed Central

Nanri, Akiko; Nakagawa, Tohru; Kuwahara, Keisuke; Yamamoto, Shuichiro; Honda, Toru; Okazaki, Hiroko; Uehara, Akihiko; Yamamoto, Makoto; Miyamoto, Toshiaki; Kochi, Takeshi; Eguchi, Masafumi; Murakami, Taizo; Shimizu, Chii; Shimizu, Makiko; Tomita, Kentaro; Nagahama, Satsue; Imai, Teppei; Nishihara, Akiko; Sasaki, Naoko; Hori, Ai; Sakamoto, Nobuaki; Nishiura, Chihiro; Totsuzaki, Takafumi; Kato, Noritada; Fukasawa, Kenji; Huanhuan, Hu; Akter, Shamima; Kurotani, Kayo; Kabe, Isamu; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Sone, Tomofumi; Dohi, Seitaro

2015-01-01

Objective Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population. Methods Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008–2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort. Results The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703–0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883–0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715–0.753) and 0.882 (0.868–0.895), respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥15 and invasive score of ≥19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years. Conclusions The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c. PMID:26558900

Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study.

PubMed

Nanri, Akiko; Nakagawa, Tohru; Kuwahara, Keisuke; Yamamoto, Shuichiro; Honda, Toru; Okazaki, Hiroko; Uehara, Akihiko; Yamamoto, Makoto; Miyamoto, Toshiaki; Kochi, Takeshi; Eguchi, Masafumi; Murakami, Taizo; Shimizu, Chii; Shimizu, Makiko; Tomita, Kentaro; Nagahama, Satsue; Imai, Teppei; Nishihara, Akiko; Sasaki, Naoko; Hori, Ai; Sakamoto, Nobuaki; Nishiura, Chihiro; Totsuzaki, Takafumi; Kato, Noritada; Fukasawa, Kenji; Huanhuan, Hu; Akter, Shamima; Kurotani, Kayo; Kabe, Isamu; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Sone, Tomofumi; Dohi, Seitaro

2015-01-01

Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population. Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008-2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥ 200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort. The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703-0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883-0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715-0.753) and 0.882 (0.868-0.895), respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥ 15 and invasive score of ≥ 19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years. The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c.

Risk Stratification of Patients With Current Generation Continuous-Flow Left Ventricular Assist Devices Being Bridged to Heart Transplantation.

PubMed

Guha, Ashrith; Nguyen, Duc; Cruz-Solbes, Ana S; Amione-Guerra, Javier; Schutt, Robert C; Bhimaraj, Arvind; Trachtenberg, Barry H; Park, Myung H; Graviss, Edward A; Gaber, Osama; Suarez, Erik; Montane, Eva; Torre-Amione, Guillermo; Estep, Jerry D

Patients bridged to transplant (BTT) with continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (CF-LVADs) have increased in the past decade. Decision support tools for these patients are limited. We developed a risk score to estimate prognosis and guide decision-making. We included heart transplant recipients bridged with CF-LVADs from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database and divided them into development (2,522 patients) and validation cohorts (1,681 patients). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were performed. Variables that independently predicted outcomes (age, African American race, recipient body mass index [BMI], intravenous [IV] antibiotic use, pretransplant dialysis, and total bilirubin) were assigned weight using linear transformation, and risk scores were derived. Patients were grouped by predicted posttransplant mortality: low risk (≤ 38 points), medium risk (38-41 points), and high risk (≥ 42 points). We performed Cox proportional hazards analysis on wait-listed CF-LVAD patients who were not transplanted. Score significantly discriminated survival among the groups in the development cohort (6.7, 12.9, 20.7; p = 0.001), validation cohort (6.4, 10.1, 13.6; p < 0.001), and ambulatory cohort (6.4, 11.5, 17.2; p < 0.001). We derived a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) BTT risk score that effectively identifies CF-LVAD patients who are at higher risk for worse outcomes after heart transplant. This score may help physicians weigh the risks of transplantation in patients with CF-LVAD.

[Assessment of cardiovascular risk in population groups. Comparison of Score system and Framingham in hypertensive patients].

PubMed

Cosín Aguilar, J; Hernándiz Martínez, A; Rodríguez Padial, L; Zamorano Gómez, J L; Arístegui Urrestarazu, R; Armada Peláez, B; Aguilar Llopis, A; Masramon Morell, X

2006-04-01

Calculation of cardiovascular risk in populations allows for developing and assessing of intervention programs and adapting health resources. While the Framingham System has been used in the past, a group of European researchers have proposed a different method called the Score project. The purpose of this paper is to compare the value of both methods for assessing cardiovascular risk. In 6,775 evaluable hypertensive patients distributed over the 17 Spanish autonomous communities (ACs), the 10-year risk of experiencing a coronary event (CR) was calculated using the Framingham equation, while risk of coronary death (RCD) and vascular death (RVD) was calculated using the Score project system, both at baseline and after one year of blood pressure control with amlodipine at the required dose. A comparison was made of the capacity to detect risk differences by both methods between populations with known different risks, and in the same population as a result of blood pressure control. Both the Score and the Framingham systems detected the significant decrease in both CR and RCD or RVD at one year of application of the CORONARIA study protocol. Risk decrease measured by any of the two methods was significant (p < 0.05) overall, by genders, and by ACs. However, the Score System, unlike the Framingham system, could not detect the reported differences in the mortality risk for coronary and vascular disease between the ACs of the North and the South-East parts of Spain.

SCORE should be preferred to Framingham to predict cardiovascular death in French population.

PubMed

Marchant, Ivanny; Boissel, Jean-Pierre; Kassaï, Behrouz; Bejan, Theodora; Massol, Jacques; Vidal, Chrystelle; Amsallem, Emmanuel; Naudin, Florence; Galan, Pilar; Czernichow, Sébastien; Nony, Patrice; Gueyffier, François

2009-10-01

Numerous studies have examined the validity of available scores to predict the absolute cardiovascular risk. We developed a virtual population based on data representative of the French population and compared the performances of the two most popular risk equations to predict cardiovascular death: Framingham and SCORE. A population was built based on official French demographic statistics and summarized data from representative observational studies. The 10-year coronary and cardiovascular death risk and their ratio were computed for each individual by SCORE and Framingham equations. The resulting rates were compared with those derived from national vital statistics. Framingham overestimated French coronary deaths by 2.8 in men and 1.9 in women, and cardiovascular deaths by 1.5 in men and 1.3 in women. SCORE overestimated coronary death by 1.6 in men and 1.7 in women, and underestimated cardiovascular death by 0.94 in men and 0.85 in women. Our results revealed an exaggerated representation of coronary among cardiovascular death predicted by Framingham, with coronary death exceeding cardiovascular death in some individual profiles. Sensitivity analyses gave some insights to explain the internal inconsistency of the Framingham equations. Evidence is that SCORE should be preferred to Framingham to predict cardiovascular death risk in French population. This discrepancy between prediction scores is likely to be observed in other populations. To improve the validation of risk equations, specific guidelines should be issued to harmonize the outcomes definition across epidemiologic studies. Prediction models should be calibrated for risk differences in the space and time dimensions.

Quality of anaesthesia-related information accessed via Internet searches.

PubMed

Caron, S; Berton, J; Beydon, L

2007-08-01

We conducted a study to examine the quality and stability of information available from the Internet on four anaesthesia-related topics. In January 2006, we searched using four key words (porphyria, scleroderma, transfusion risk, and epidural analgesia risk) with five search engines (Google, HotBot, AltaVista, Excite, and Yahoo). We used a published scoring system (NetScoring) to evaluate the first 15 sites identified by each of these 20 searches. We also used a simple four-point scale to assess the first 100 sites in the Google search on one of our four topics ('epidural analgesia risk'). In November 2006, we conducted a second evaluation, using three search engines (Google, AltaVista, and Yahoo) with 14 synonyms for 'epidural analgesia risk'. The five search engines performed similarly. NetScoring scores were lower for transfusion risk (P < 0.001). One or more high-quality sites was identified consistently among the first 15 sites in each search. Quality scored using the simple scale correlated closely with medical content and design by NetScoring and with the number of references (P < 0.05). Synonyms of 'epidural analgesia risk' yielded similar results. The quality of accessed information improved somewhat over the 11 month period with Yahoo and AltaVista, but declined with Google. The Internet is a valuable tool for obtaining medical information, but the quality of websites varies between different topics. A simple rating scale may facilitate the quality scoring on individual websites. Differences in precise search terms used for a given topic did not appear to affect the quality of the information obtained.

Predictors of heart failure in patients with stable coronary artery disease: a PEACE study.

PubMed

Lewis, Eldrin F; Solomon, Scott D; Jablonski, Kathleen A; Rice, Madeline Murguia; Clemenza, Francesco; Hsia, Judith; Maggioni, Aldo P; Zabalgoitia, Miguel; Huynh, Thao; Cuddy, Thomas E; Gersh, Bernard J; Rouleau, Jean; Braunwald, Eugene; Pfeffer, Marc A

2009-05-01

Heart failure (HF) is a disease commonly associated with coronary artery disease. Most risk models for HF development have focused on patients with acute myocardial infarction. The Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition population enabled the development of a risk model to predict HF in patients with stable coronary artery disease and preserved ejection fraction. In the 8290, Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition patients without preexisting HF, new-onset HF hospitalizations, and fatal HF were assessed over a median follow-up of 4.8 years. Covariates were evaluated and maintained in the Cox regression multivariable model using backward selection if P<0.05. A risk score was developed and converted to an integer-based scoring system. Among the Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition population (age, 64+/-8; female, 18%; prior myocardial infarction, 55%), there were 268 cases of fatal and nonfatal HF. Twelve characteristics were associated with increased risk of HF along with several baseline medications, including older age, history of hypertension, and diabetes. Randomization to trandolapril independently reduced the risk of HF. There was no interaction between trandolapril treatment and other risk factors for HF. The risk score (range, 0 to 21) demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (c-statistic 0.80). Risk of HF ranged from 1.75% in patients with a risk score of 0% to 33% in patients with risk score >or=16. Among patients with stable coronary artery disease and preserved ejection fraction, traditional and newer factors were independently associated with increased risk of HF. Trandolopril decreased the risk of HF in these patients with preserved ejection fraction.

The risk assessment score in acute whiplash injury predicts outcome and reflects biopsychosocial factors.

PubMed

Kasch, Helge; Qerama, Erisela; Kongsted, Alice; Bach, Flemming W; Bendix, Tom; Jensen, Troels S

2011-12-01

One-year prospective study of 141 acute whiplash patients (WLP) and 40 acute ankle-injured controls. This study investigates a priori determined potential risk factors to develop a risk assessment tool, for which the expediency was examined. The whiplash-associated disorders (WAD) grading system that emerged from The Quebec Task-Force-on-Whiplash has been of limited value for predicting work-related recovery and for explaining biopsychosocial disability after whiplash and new predictive factors, for example, risk criteria that comprehensively differentiate acute WLP in a biopsychosocial manner are needed. Consecutively, 141 acute WLP and 40 ankle-injured recruited from emergency units were examined after 1 week, 1, 3, 6, and 12 months obtaining neck/head visual analog scale score, number of nonpainful complaints, epidemiological, social, psychological data and neurological examination, active neck mobility, and furthermore muscle tenderness and pain response, and strength and duration of neck muscles. Risk factors derived (reduced cervical range of motion, intense neck pain/headache, multiple nonpain complaints) were applied in a risk assessment score and divided into seven risk strata. A receiver operating characteristics curve for the Risk Assessment Score and 1-year work disability showed an area of 0.90. Risk strata and number of sick days showed a log-linear relationship. In stratum 1 full recovery was encountered, but for high-risk patients in stratum 6 only 50% and 7 only 20% had returned to work after 1 year (P < 5.4 × 10). Strength measures, psychophysical pain measurements, and psychological and social data (reported elsewhere) showed significant relation to risk strata. The Risk Assessment score is suggested as a valuable tool for grading WLP early after injury. It has reasonable screening power for encountering work disability and reflects the biopsychosocial nature of whiplash injuries.

Does the Surgical Apgar Score Measure Intraoperative Performance?

PubMed Central

Regenbogen, Scott E.; Lancaster, R. Todd; Lipsitz, Stuart R.; Greenberg, Caprice C.; Hutter, Matthew M.; Gawande, Atul A.

2008-01-01

Objective To evaluate whether Surgical Apgar Scores measure the relationship between intraoperative care and surgical outcomes. Summary Background Data With preoperative risk-adjustment now well-developed, the role of intraoperative performance in surgical outcomes may be considered. We previously derived and validated a ten-point Surgical Apgar Score—based on intraoperative blood loss, heart rate, and blood pressure—that effectively predicts major postoperative complications within 30 days of general and vascular surgery. This study evaluates whether the predictive value of this score comes solely from patients’ preoperative risk, or also measures care in the operating room. Methods Among a systematic sample of 4,119 general and vascular surgery patients at a major academic hospital, we constructed a detailed risk-prediction model including 27 patient-comorbidity and procedure-complexity variables, and computed patients’ propensity to suffer a major postoperative complication. We evaluated the prognostic value of patients’ Surgical Apgar Scores before and after adjustment for this preoperative risk. Results After risk-adjustment, the Surgical Apgar Score remained strongly correlated with postoperative outcomes (p<0.0001). Odds of major complications among average-scoring patients (scores 7–8) were equivalent to preoperative predictions (likelihood ratio (LR) 1.05, 95%CI 0.78–1.41), significantly decreased for those who achieved the best scores of 9–10 (LR 0.52, 95%CI 0.35–0.78), and were significantly poorer for those with low scores—LRs 1.60 (1.12–2.28) for scores 5–6, and 2.80 (1.50–5.21) for scores 0–4. Conclusions Even after accounting for fixed preoperative risk—due to patients’ acute condition, comorbidities and/or operative complexity—the Surgical Apgar Score appears to detect differences in intraoperative management that reduce odds of major complications by half, or increase them by nearly three-fold. PMID:18650644

Clinical utility of the HEART score in patients admitted with chest pain to an inner-city hospital in the USA.

PubMed

Patnaik, Soumya; Shah, Mahek; Alhamshari, Yaser; Ram, Pradhum; Puri, Ritika; Lu, Marvin; Balderia, Percy; Imms, John B; Maludum, Obiora; Figueredo, Vincent M

2017-06-01

Chest pain is one of the most common presentations to a hospital, and appropriate triaging of these patients can be challenging. The HEART score has been used for such purposes in some countries and only a few validation studies from the USA are available. We aim to determine the utility of the HEART score in patients presenting with chest pain to an inner-city hospital in the USA. We retrospectively screened 417 consecutive patients admitted with chest pain to the observation/telemetry units at Einstein Medical Center Philadelphia. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 299 patients were included in the analysis. Patients were divided into low-risk (0-3) and intermediate-high (≥4)-risk HEART score groups. Baseline characteristics, thrombolysis in myocardial infarction score, need for revascularization during index hospitalization, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 6 weeks and 12 months were recorded. There were 98 and 201 patients in the low-score group and intermediate-high-score group, respectively. Compared with the low-score group, patients in the intermediate-high-risk group had a higher incidence of revascularization during the index hospital stay (16.4 vs. 0%; P=0.001), longer hospital stay, higher MACE at 6 weeks (9.5 vs. 0%) and 12 months (20.4 vs. 3.1%), and higher cardiac readmissions. HEART score of at least 4 independently predicted MACE at 12 months (odds ratio 7.456, 95% confidence interval: 2.175-25.56; P=0.001) after adjusting for other risk factors in regression analysis. HEART score of at least 4 was predictive of worse outcomes in patients with chest pain in an inner-city USA hospital. If validated in multicenter prospective studies, the HEART score could potentially be useful in risk-stratifying patients presenting with chest pain in the USA and could impact clinical decision-making.

Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance.

PubMed

Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B

2017-12-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unsupervised Deep Learning Applied to Breast Density Segmentation and Mammographic Risk Scoring.

PubMed

Kallenberg, Michiel; Petersen, Kersten; Nielsen, Mads; Ng, Andrew Y; Pengfei Diao; Igel, Christian; Vachon, Celine M; Holland, Katharina; Winkel, Rikke Rass; Karssemeijer, Nico; Lillholm, Martin

2016-05-01

Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used as the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both lifetime and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model is easy to apply and generalizes to many other segmentation and scoring problems.

Higher Mortality in registrants with sudden model for end-stage liver disease increase: Disadvantaged by the current allocation policy.

PubMed

Massie, Allan B; Luo, Xun; Alejo, Jennifer L; Poon, Anna K; Cameron, Andrew M; Segev, Dorry L

2015-05-01

Liver allocation is based on current Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, with priority in the case of a tie being given to those waiting the longest with a given MELD score. We hypothesized that this priority might not reflect risk: registrants whose MELD score has recently increased receive lower priority but might have higher wait-list mortality. We studied wait-list and posttransplant mortality in 69,643 adult registrants from 2002 to 2013. By likelihood maximization, we empirically defined a MELD spike as a MELD increase ≥ 30% over the previous 7 days. At any given time, only 0.6% of wait-list patients experienced a spike; however, these patients accounted for 25% of all wait-list deaths. Registrants who reached a given MELD score after a spike had higher wait-list mortality in the ensuing 7 days than those with the same resulting MELD score who did not spike, but they had no difference in posttransplant mortality. The spike-associated wait-list mortality increase was highest for registrants with medium MELD scores: specifically, 2.3-fold higher (spike versus no spike) for a MELD score of 10, 4.0-fold higher for a MELD score of 20, and 2.5-fold higher for a MELD score of 30. A model incorporating the MELD score and spikes predicted wait-list mortality risk much better than a model incorporating only the MELD score. Registrants with a sudden MELD increase have a higher risk of short-term wait-list mortality than is indicated by their current MELD score but have no increased risk of posttransplant mortality; allocation policy should be adjusted accordingly. © 2015 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Early Cannabis Use, Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia and Brain Maturation in Adolescence.

PubMed

French, Leon; Gray, Courtney; Leonard, Gabriel; Perron, Michel; Pike, G Bruce; Richer, Louis; Séguin, Jean R; Veillette, Suzanne; Evans, C John; Artiges, Eric; Banaschewski, Tobias; Bokde, Arun W L; Bromberg, Uli; Bruehl, Ruediger; Buchel, Christian; Cattrell, Anna; Conrod, Patricia J; Flor, Herta; Frouin, Vincent; Gallinat, Jurgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Lemaitre, Herve; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Orfanos, Dimitri Papadopoulos; Pangelinan, Melissa Marie; Poustka, Luise; Rietschel, Marcella; Smolka, Michael N; Walter, Henrik; Whelan, Robert; Timpson, Nic J; Schumann, Gunter; Smith, George Davey; Pausova, Zdenka; Paus, Tomáš

2015-10-01

Cannabis use during adolescence is known to increase the risk for schizophrenia in men. Sex differences in the dynamics of brain maturation during adolescence may be of particular importance with regard to vulnerability of the male brain to cannabis exposure. To evaluate whether the association between cannabis use and cortical maturation in adolescents is moderated by a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia. Observation of 3 population-based samples included initial analysis in 1024 adolescents of both sexes from the Canadian Saguenay Youth Study (SYS) and follow-up in 426 adolescents of both sexes from the IMAGEN Study from 8 European cities and 504 male youth from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) based in England. A total of 1577 participants (aged 12-21 years; 899 [57.0%] male) had (1) information about cannabis use; (2) imaging studies of the brain; and (3) a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia across 108 genetic loci identified by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Data analysis was performed from March 1 through December 31, 2014. Cortical thickness derived from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images. Linear regression tests were used to assess the relationships between cannabis use, cortical thickness, and risk score. Across the 3 samples of 1574 participants, a negative association was observed between cannabis use in early adolescence and cortical thickness in male participants with a high polygenic risk score. This observation was not the case for low-risk male participants or for the low- or high-risk female participants. Thus, in SYS male participants, cannabis use interacted with risk score vis-à-vis cortical thickness (P = .009); higher scores were associated with lower thickness only in males who used cannabis. Similarly, in the IMAGEN male participants, cannabis use interacted with increased risk score vis-à-vis a change in decreasing cortical thickness from 14.5 to 18.5 years of age (t137 = -2.36; P = .02). Finally, in the ALSPAC high-risk group of male participants, those who used cannabis most frequently (≥61 occasions) had lower cortical thickness than those who never used cannabis (difference in cortical thickness, 0.07 [95% CI, 0.01-0.12]; P = .02) and those with light use (<5 occasions) (difference in cortical thickness, 0.11 [95% CI, 0.03-0.18]; P = .004). Cannabis use in early adolescence moderates the association between the genetic risk for schizophrenia and cortical maturation among male individuals. This finding implicates processes underlying cortical maturation in mediating the link between cannabis use and liability to schizophrenia.

Screening for Behavioral Risk: Identification of High Risk Cut Scores within the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilgus, Stephen P.; Taylor, Crystal N.; von der Embse, Nathaniel P.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to support the identification of Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) cut scores that could be used to detect high-risk students. Teachers rated students across two time points (Time 1 n = 1,242 students; Time 2 n = 704) using the SAEBRS and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System…

Predicting Long-term Ischemic Events Using Routine Clinical Parameters in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: The OPT-CAD Risk Score.

PubMed

Han, Yaling; Chen, Jiyan; Qiu, Miaohan; Li, Yi; Li, Jing; Feng, Yingqing; Qiu, Jian; Meng, Liang; Sun, Yihong; Tao, Guizhou; Wu, Zhaohui; Yang, Chunyu; Guo, Jincheng; Pu, Kui; Chen, Shaoliang; Wang, Xiaozeng

2018-06-05

The prognosis of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) at hospital discharge was constantly varying, and post-discharge risk of ischemic events remain a concern. However, risk prediction tools to identify risk of ischemia for these patients has not yet been reported. We sought to develop a scoring system for predicting long-term ischemic events in CAD patients receiving antiplatelet therapy that would be beneficial in appropriate personalized decision-making for these patients. In this prospective Optimal antiPlatelet Therapy for Chinese patients with Coronary Artery Disease (OPT-CAD, NCT01735305) registry, a total of 14,032 patients with CAD receiving at least one kind of antiplatelet agent were enrolled from 107 centers across China, from January 2012 to March 2014. The risk scoring system was developed in a derivation cohort (enrolled initially 10,000 patients in the database) using a logistic regression model and was subsequently tested in a validation cohort (the last 4,032 patients). Points in risk score was assigned based on the multivariable odds ratio of each factor. Ischemic events were defined as the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction or stroke. Ischemic events occurred in 342 (3.4%) patients in the derivation cohort and 160 (4.0%) patients in the validation cohort during 1-year follow-up. The OPT-CAD score, ranging from 0-257 points, consist of 10 independent risk factors, including age (0-71 points), heart rates (0-36 points), hypertension (0-20 points), prior myocardial infarction (16 points), prior stroke (16 points), renal insufficient (21 points), anemia (19 points), low ejection fraction (22 points), positive cardiac troponin (23 points) and ST-segment deviation (13 points). In predicting 1-year ischemic events, the area under receiver operating characteristics curve were 0.73 and 0.72 in derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The incidences of ischemic events in low- (0-90 points), medium- (91-150 points) and high-risk (≥151 points) patients were 1.6%, 5.5%, and 15.0%, respectively. Compared to GRACE score, OPT-CAD score had a better discrimination in predicting ischemic events and all-cause mortality (ischemic events: 0.72 vs 0.65, all-cause mortality: 0.79 vs 0.72, both P<0.001). Among CAD patients, a risk score based on 10 baseline clinical variables performed better than the GRACE risk score in predicting long-term ischemic events. However, further research is needed to assess the value of the OPT-CAD score in guiding the management of antiplatelet therapy for patients with CAD. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Aggregate National Early Warning Score (NEWS) values are more important than high scores for a single vital signs parameter for discriminating the risk of adverse outcomes.

PubMed

Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

2015-02-01

The Royal College of Physicians (RCPL) National Early Warning Score (NEWS) escalates care to a doctor at NEWS values of ≥5 and when the score for any single vital sign is 3. We calculated the 24-h risk of serious clinical outcomes for vital signs observation sets with NEWS values of 3, 4 and 5, separately determining risks when the score did/did not include a single score of 3. We compared workloads generated by the RCPL's escalation protocol and for aggregate NEWS value alone. Aggregate NEWS values of 3 or 4 (n=142,282) formed 15.1% of all vital signs sets measured; those containing a single vital sign scoring 3 (n=36,207) constituted 3.8% of all sets. Aggregate NEWS values of either 3 or 4 with a component score of 3 have significantly lower risks (OR: 0.26 and 0.53) than an aggregate value of 5 (OR: 1.0). Escalating care to a doctor when any single component of NEWS scores 3 compared to when aggregate NEWS values ≥5, would have increased doctors' workload by 40% with only a small increase in detected adverse outcomes from 2.99 to 3.08 per day (a 3% improvement in detection). The recommended NEWS escalation protocol produces additional work for the bedside nurse and responding doctor, disproportionate to a modest benefit in increased detection of adverse outcomes. It may have significant ramifications for efficient staff resource allocation, distort patient safety focus and risk alarm fatigue. Our findings suggest that the RCPL escalation guidance warrants review. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of polygenic scores for predicting phobic anxiety.

PubMed

Walter, Stefan; Glymour, M Maria; Koenen, Karestan; Liang, Liming; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Cornelis, Marilyn; Chang, Shun-Chiao; Rimm, Eric; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura D

2013-01-01

Anxiety disorders are common, with a lifetime prevalence of 20% in the U.S., and are responsible for substantial burdens of disability, missed work days and health care utilization. To date, no causal genetic variants have been identified for anxiety, anxiety disorders, or related traits. To investigate whether a phobic anxiety symptom score was associated with 3 alternative polygenic risk scores, derived from external genome-wide association studies of anxiety, an internally estimated agnostic polygenic score, or previously identified candidate genes. Longitudinal follow-up study. Using linear and logistic regression we investigated whether phobic anxiety was associated with polygenic risk scores derived from internal, leave-one out genome-wide association studies, from 31 candidate genes, and from out-of-sample genome-wide association weights previously shown to predict depression and anxiety in another cohort. Study participants (n = 11,127) were individuals from the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Anxiety symptoms were assessed via the 8-item phobic anxiety scale of the Crown Crisp Index at two time points, from which a continuous phenotype score was derived. We found no genome-wide significant associations with phobic anxiety. Phobic anxiety was also not associated with a polygenic risk score derived from the genome-wide association study beta weights using liberal p-value thresholds; with a previously published genome-wide polygenic score; or with a candidate gene risk score based on 31 genes previously hypothesized to predict anxiety. There is a substantial gap between twin-study heritability estimates of anxiety disorders ranging between 20-40% and heritability explained by genome-wide association results. New approaches such as improved genome imputations, application of gene expression and biological pathways information, and incorporating social or environmental modifiers of genetic risks may be necessary to identify significant genetic predictors of anxiety.

Chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease shares genetic background with esophageal adenocarcinoma and Barrett's esophagus

PubMed Central

Gharahkhani, Puya; Tung, Joyce; Hinds, David; Mishra, Aniket; Vaughan, Thomas L.; Whiteman, David C.; MacGregor, Stuart

2016-01-01

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) is a rapidly fatal cancer with rising incidence in the developed world. Most EAs arise in a metaplastic epithelium, Barrett's esophagus (BE), which is associated with greatly increased risk of EA. One of the key risk factors for both BE and EA is chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). This study used the linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression and genomic profile risk scoring approaches to investigate the contribution of multiple common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to the risk of GERD, and the extent of genetic overlap between GERD and BE or EA. Using LD score regression, we estimated an overall phenotypic variance of 7% (95% CI 3–11%) for GERD explained by all the genotyped SNPs. A genetic correlation of 77% (s.e. = 24%, P = 0.0012) between GERD and BE and 88% between GERD and EA (s.e. = 25%, P = 0.0004) was estimated using the LD score regression approach. Results from the genomic profile risk scoring approach, as a robustness check, were broadly similar to those from the LD score regression. This study provides the first evidence for a polygenic basis for GERD and supports for a polygenic overlap between GERD and BE, and GERD and EA. PMID:26704365

Quantifying Risk of Financial Incapacity and Financial Exploitation in Community-dwelling Older Adults: Utility of a Scoring System for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Peter A; Gross, Evan; Ficker, Lisa J

2018-06-08

This work examines the clinical utility of the scoring system for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS) and its usefulness for decision making capacity and financial exploitation. Objective 1 was to examine the clinical utility of a person centered, empirically supported, financial decision making scale. Objective 2 was to determine whether the risk-scoring system created for this rating scale is sufficiently accurate for the use of cutoff scores in cases of decisional capacity and cases of suspected financial exploitation. Objective 3 was to examine whether cognitive decline and decisional impairment predicted suspected financial exploitation. Two hundred independently living, non-demented community-dwelling older adults comprised the sample. Participants completed the rating scale and other cognitive measures. Receiver operating characteristic curves were in the good to excellent range for decisional capacity scoring, and in the fair to good range for financial exploitation. Analyses supported the conceptual link between decision making deficits and risk for exploitation, and supported the use of the risk-scoring system in a community-based population. This study adds to the empirical evidence supporting the use of the rating scale as a clinical tool assessing risk for financial decisional impairment and/or financial exploitation.

Mortality indicators and risk factors for intra-abdominal hypertension in severe acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Zhao, J G; Liao, Q; Zhao, Y P; Hu, Y

2014-01-01

This study assessed the risk factors associated with mortality and the development of intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). To identify significant risk factors, we assessed the following variables in 102 patients with SAP: age, gender, etiology, serum amylase level, white blood cell (WBC) count, serum calcium level, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, computed tomography severity index (CTSI) score, pancreatic necrosis, surgical interventions, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Statistically significant differences were identified using the Student t test and the χ (2) test. Independent risk factors for survival were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression. The following variables were significantly related to both mortality and IAH: WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, pancreatic necrosis >50%, and MODS. However, it was found that surgical intervention had no significant association with mortality. MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% were found to be independent risk factors for survival in patients with SAP. Mortality and IAH from SAP were significantly related to WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, and MODS. However, Surgical intervention did not result in higher mortality. Moreover, MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% predicted a worse prognosis in SAP patients.

A risk score to predict the incidence of prolonged air leak after video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy: An analysis from the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database.

PubMed

Pompili, Cecilia; Falcoz, Pierre Emmanuel; Salati, Michele; Szanto, Zalan; Brunelli, Alessandro

2017-04-01

The study objective was to develop an aggregate risk score for predicting the occurrence of prolonged air leak after video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy from patients registered in the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. A total of 5069 patients who underwent video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy (July 2007 to August 2015) were analyzed. Exclusion criteria included sublobar resections or pneumonectomies, lung resection associated with chest wall or diaphragm resections, sleeve resections, and need for postoperative assisted mechanical ventilation. Prolonged air leak was defined as an air leak more than 5 days. Several baseline and surgical variables were tested for a possible association with prolonged air leak using univariable and logistic regression analyses, determined by bootstrap resampling. Predictors were proportionally weighed according to their regression estimates (assigning 1 point to the smallest coefficient). Prolonged air leak was observed in 504 patients (9.9%). Three variables were found associated with prolonged air leak after logistic regression: male gender (P < .0001, score = 1), forced expiratory volume in 1 second less than 80% (P < .0001, score = 1), and body mass index less than 18.5 kg/m 2 (P < .0001, score = 2). The aggregate prolonged air leak risk score was calculated for each patient by summing the individual scores assigned to each variable (range, 0-4). Patients were then grouped into 4 classes with an incremental risk of prolonged air leak (P < .0001): class A (score 0 points, 1493 patients) 6.3% with prolonged air leak, class B (score 1 point, 2240 patients) 10% with prolonged air leak, class C (score 2 points, 1219 patients) 13% with prolonged air leak, and class D (score >2 points, 117 patients) 25% with prolonged air leak. An aggregate risk score was created to stratify the incidence of prolonged air leak after video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy. The score can be used for patient counseling and to identify those patients who can benefit from additional intraoperative preventative measures. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term bleeding risk prediction in 'real world' patients with atrial fibrillation: Comparison of the HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding risk scores. The Murcia Atrial Fibrillation Project.

PubMed

Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Roldan, Vanessa; Vicente, Vicente; Valdés, Mariano; Marín, Francisco; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-10-05

Risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on clinical factors alone generally have only modest predictive value for predicting high risk patients that sustain events. Biomarkers might be an attractive prognostic tool to improve bleeding risk prediction. The new ABC-Bleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED score in a clinical trial cohort but has not been externally validated. The aim of this study was to analyze the predictive performance of the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED score in an independent "real-world" anticoagulated AF patients with long-term follow-up. We enrolled 1,120 patients stable on vitamin K antagonist treatment. The HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding scores were quantified. Predictive values were compared by c-indexes, IDI, NRI, as well as decision curve analysis (DCA). Median HAS-BLED score was 2 (IQR 2-3) and median ABC-Bleeding was 16.5 (IQR 14.3-18.6). After 6.5 years of follow-up, 207 (2.84 %/year) patients had major bleeding events, of which 65 (0.89 %/year) had intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) and 85 (1.17 %/year) had gastrointestinal bleeding events (GIB). The c-index of HAS-BLED was significantly higher than ABC-Bleeding for major bleeding (0.583 vs 0.518; p=0.025), GIB (0.596 vs 0.519; p=0.017) and for the composite of ICH-GIB (0.593 vs 0.527; p=0.030). NRI showed a significant negative reclassification for major bleeding and for the composite of ICH-GIB with the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED. Using DCAs, the use of HAS-BLED score gave an approximate net benefit of 4 % over the ABC-Bleeding score. In conclusion, in the first "real-world" validation of the ABC-Bleeding score, HAS-BLED performed significantly better than the ABC-Bleeding score in predicting major bleeding, GIB and the composite of GIB and ICH.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

PubMed

Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Destefano, Anita L; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A; Decarli, Charles; Ikram, M Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, W T; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

2014-02-01

Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

Anthropometric measurements of general and central obesity and the prediction of cardiovascular disease risk in women: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Goh, Louise G H; Dhaliwal, Satvinder S; Welborn, Timothy A; Lee, Andy H; Della, Phillip R

2014-01-01

Objectives It is important to ascertain which anthropometric measurements of obesity, general or central, are better predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in women. 10-year CVD risk was calculated from the Framingham risk score model, SCORE risk chart for high-risk regions, general CVD and simplified general CVD risk score models. Increase in CVD risk associated with 1 SD increment in each anthropometric measurement above the mean was calculated, and the diagnostic utility of obesity measures in identifying participants with increased likelihood of being above the treatment threshold was assessed. Design Cross-sectional data from the National Heart Foundation Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Setting Population-based survey in Australia. Participants 4487 women aged 20–69 years without heart disease, diabetes or stroke. Outcome measures Anthropometric obesity measures that demonstrated the greatest increase in CVD risk as a result of incremental change, 1 SD above the mean, and obesity measures that had the greatest diagnostic utility in identifying participants above the respective treatment thresholds of various risk score models. Results Waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist-to-stature ratio had larger effects on increased CVD risk compared with body mass index (BMI). These central obesity measures also had higher sensitivity and specificity in identifying women above and below the 20% treatment threshold than BMI. Central obesity measures also recorded better correlations with CVD risk compared with general obesity measures. WC and WHR were found to be significant and independent predictors of CVD risk, as indicated by the high area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (>0.76), after controlling for BMI in the simplified general CVD risk score model. Conclusions Central obesity measures are better predictors of CVD risk compared with general obesity measures in women. It is equally important to maintain a healthy weight and to prevent central obesity concurrently. PMID:24503301

Anthropometric measurements of general and central obesity and the prediction of cardiovascular disease risk in women: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Goh, Louise G H; Dhaliwal, Satvinder S; Welborn, Timothy A; Lee, Andy H; Della, Phillip R

2014-02-06

It is important to ascertain which anthropometric measurements of obesity, general or central, are better predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in women. 10-year CVD risk was calculated from the Framingham risk score model, SCORE risk chart for high-risk regions, general CVD and simplified general CVD risk score models. Increase in CVD risk associated with 1 SD increment in each anthropometric measurement above the mean was calculated, and the diagnostic utility of obesity measures in identifying participants with increased likelihood of being above the treatment threshold was assessed. Cross-sectional data from the National Heart Foundation Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Population-based survey in Australia. 4487 women aged 20-69 years without heart disease, diabetes or stroke. Anthropometric obesity measures that demonstrated the greatest increase in CVD risk as a result of incremental change, 1 SD above the mean, and obesity measures that had the greatest diagnostic utility in identifying participants above the respective treatment thresholds of various risk score models. Waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist-to-stature ratio had larger effects on increased CVD risk compared with body mass index (BMI). These central obesity measures also had higher sensitivity and specificity in identifying women above and below the 20% treatment threshold than BMI. Central obesity measures also recorded better correlations with CVD risk compared with general obesity measures. WC and WHR were found to be significant and independent predictors of CVD risk, as indicated by the high area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (>0.76), after controlling for BMI in the simplified general CVD risk score model. Central obesity measures are better predictors of CVD risk compared with general obesity measures in women. It is equally important to maintain a healthy weight and to prevent central obesity concurrently.

Assessment of Diabetes Risk in an Adult Population Using Indian Diabetes Risk Score in an Urban Resettlement Colony of Delhi.

PubMed

Acharya, Anita Shankar; Singh, Anshu; Dhiman, Balraj

2017-03-01

Diabetes mellitus is one of the non-communicable diseases which has become a major global health problem whose prevalence is increasing worldwide and is expected to reach 4.4% by 2030. The risk of diabetes escalates with increase in the number of risk factors and their duration as well. The Indian Diabetic Risk Score (IDRS) is a simple, low cost, feasible tool for mass screening programme at the community level. To assess the risk score of diabetes among the study subjects using IDRS. A cross sectional survey was conducted on adults >30 years (n=580) on both gender in an urban resettlement colony of Delhi during December 2013 to March 2015. A Semi-structured interview schedule consisting of Socio-demographic characteristics, risk factor profile and Indian Diabetes Risk Score was used. Data was entered and analyzed in SPSS. Out of 580 subjects, 31 (5.3%) study subjects were not at risk of having diabetes, rest 94.5% were at moderate or high risk of diabetes.A statistically significant association of diabetes risk with marital status(p=0.0001), education(0.005),body mass index(0.049) and systolic blood pressure was seen.(p=0.006). More than 90% of the study subjects were at risk of having diabetes, hence screening is of utmost importance so that interventions can be initiated at an early stage.

Predicting dementia using socio-demographic characteristics and the Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test in the general population.

PubMed

Mura, Thibault; Baramova, Marieta; Gabelle, Audrey; Artero, Sylvaine; Dartigues, Jean-François; Amieva, Hélène; Berr, Claudine

2017-03-23

Our study aimed to determine whether the consideration of socio-demographic features improves the prediction of Alzheimer's dementia (AD) at 5 years when using the Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test (FCSRT) in the general older population. Our analyses focused on 2558 subjects from the prospective Three-City Study, a cohort of community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years and over, with FCSRT scores. Four "residual scores" and "risk scores" were built that included the FCSRT scores and socio-demographic variables. The predictive performance of crude, residual and risk scores was analyzed by comparing the areas under the ROC curve (AUC). In total, 1750 subjects were seen 5 years after completing the FCSRT. AD was diagnosed in 116 of them. Compared with the crude free-recall score, the predictive performances of the residual score and of the risk score were not significantly improved (AUC: 0.83 vs 0.82 and 0.88 vs 0.89 respectively). Using socio-demographic features in addition to the FCSRT does not improve its predictive performance for dementia or AD.

Ischemic Stroke Risk in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc Score of 1: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Joundi, Raed A; Cipriano, Lauren E; Sposato, Luciano A; Saposnik, Gustavo

2016-05-01

The CHA2DS2-VASc score aims to improve risk stratification of ischemic stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation to identify those who can safely forego oral anticoagulation. Oral anticoagulation treatment guidelines remain uncertain for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk of ischemic stroke for patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0, 1, or 2 not treated with oral anticoagulation. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Web of Science from the start of the database up until April 15, 2015. We included studies that stratified the risk of ischemic stroke by CHA2DS2-VASc score for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. We estimated the summary annual rate of ischemic stroke using random effects meta-analyses and compared the estimated stroke rates with published net-benefit thresholds for initiating anticoagulants. 1162 abstracts were retrieved, of which 10 met all inclusion criteria for the study. There was substantial heterogeneity among studies. The summary estimate for the annual risk of ischemic stroke was 1.61% (95% confidence interval 0%-3.23%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1, meeting the theoretical threshold for using novel oral anticoagulants (0.9%), but below the threshold for warfarin (1.7%). The summary incident risk of ischemic stroke was 0.68% (95% confidence interval 0.12%-1.23%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 and 2.49% (95% confidence interval 1.16%-3.83%) for CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2. Our meta-analysis of ischemic stroke risk in atrial fibrillation patients suggests that those with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1 may be considered for a novel oral anticoagulant, but because of high heterogeneity, the decision should be based on individual patient characteristics. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Prepregnancy low-carbohydrate dietary pattern and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort study1234

PubMed Central

Bao, Wei; Bowers, Katherine; Tobias, Deirdre K; Olsen, Sjurdur F; Chavarro, Jorge; Vaag, Allan; Kiely, Michele; Zhang, Cuilin

2014-01-01

Background: Low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) have been vastly popular for weight loss. The association between a low-carbohydrate dietary pattern and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) remains unknown. Objective: We aimed to prospectively examine the association of 3 prepregnancy low-carbohydrate dietary patterns with risk of GDM. Design: We included 21,411 singleton pregnancies in the Nurses’ Health Study II. Prepregnancy LCD scores were calculated from validated food-frequency questionnaires, including an overall LCD score on the basis of intakes of carbohydrate, total protein, and total fat; an animal LCD score on the basis of intakes of carbohydrate, animal protein, and animal fat; and a vegetable LCD score on the basis of intakes of carbohydrate, vegetable protein, and vegetable fat. A higher score reflected a higher intake of fat and protein and a lower intake of carbohydrate, and it indicated closer adherence to a low-carbohydrate dietary pattern. RRs and 95% CIs were estimated by using generalized estimating equations with log-binomial models. Results: We documented 867 incident GDM pregnancies during 10 y follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted RRs (95% CIs) of GDM for comparisons of highest with lowest quartiles were 1.27 (1.06, 1.51) for the overall LCD score (P-trend = 0.03), 1.36 (1.13, 1.64) for the animal LCD score (P-trend = 0.003), and 0.84 (0.69, 1.03) for the vegetable LCD score (P-trend = 0.08). Associations between LCD scores and GDM risk were not significantly modified by age, parity, family history of diabetes, physical activity, or overweight status. Conclusions: A prepregnancy low-carbohydrate dietary pattern with high protein and fat from animal-food sources is positively associated with GDM risk, whereas a prepregnancy low-carbohydrate dietary pattern with high protein and fat from vegetable food sources is not associated with the risk. Women of reproductive age who follow a low-carbohydrate dietary pattern may consider consuming vegetable rather than animal sources of protein and fat to minimize their risk of GDM. PMID:24717341

The utility of the additive EuroSCORE, RIFLE and AKIN staging scores in the prediction and diagnosis of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Duthie, Fiona A I; McGeehan, Paul; Hill, Sharleen; Phelps, Richard; Kluth, David C; Zamvar, Vipin; Hughes, Jeremy; Ferenbach, David A

2014-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) following cardiac surgery is a complication associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. We compared staging systems for the diagnosis of AKI after cardiac surgery, and assessed pre-operative factors predictive of post-operative AKI. Clinical data, surgical risk scores, procedure and clinical outcome were obtained on all 4,651 patients undergoing cardiac surgery to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh between April 2006 and March 2011, of whom 4,572 had sufficient measurements of creatinine before and after surgery to permit inclusion and analysis. The presence of AKI was assessed using the AKIN and RIFLE criteria. By AKIN criteria, 12.4% of the studied population developed AKI versus 6.5% by RIFLE criteria. Any post-operation AKI was associated with increased mortality from 2.2 to 13.5% (relative risk 7.0, p < 0.001), and increased inpatient stay from a median of 7 (IQR 4) to 9 (IQR 11) days (p < 0.05). Patients identified by AKIN, but not RIFLE, had a mean peak creatinine rise of 34% from baseline and had a significantly lower mortality compared to RIFLE-'Risk' AKI (mortality 6.1 vs. 9.7%; p < 0.05). Pre-operative creatinine, diabetes, NYHA Class IV dyspnoea and EuroSCORE-1 (a surgical risk score) all predicted subsequent AKI on multivariate analysis. EuroSCORE-1 outperformed any single demographic factor in predicting post-operative AKI risk, equating to an 8% increase in relative risk for each additional point. AKI after cardiac surgery is associated with delayed discharge and high mortality rates. The AKIN and RIFLE criteria identify patients at a range of AKI severity levels suitable for trial recruitment. The utility of EuroSCORE as a risk stratification tool to identify high AKI-risk subjects for prospective intervention merits further study.

Predicting Early Death Among Elderly Dialysis Patients: Development and Validation of a Risk Score to Assist Shared Decision Making for Dialysis Initiation.

PubMed

Thamer, Mae; Kaufman, James S; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Qian; Cotter, Dennis J; Bang, Heejung

2015-12-01

A shared decision-making tool could help elderly patients with advanced chronic kidney disease decide about initiating dialysis therapy. Because mortality may be high in the first few months after initiating dialysis therapy, incorporating early mortality predictors in such a tool would be important for an informed decision. Our objective is to derive and validate a predictive risk score for early mortality after initiating dialysis therapy. Retrospective observational cohort, with development and validation cohorts. US Renal Data System and claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for 69,441 (aged ≥67 years) patients with end-stage renal disease with a previous 2-year Medicare history who initiated dialysis therapy from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2010. Demographics, predialysis care, laboratory data, functional limitations, and medical history. All-cause mortality in the first 3 and 6 months. Predicted mortality by logistic regression. The simple risk score (total score, 0-9) included age (0-3 points), low albumin level, assistance with daily living, nursing home residence, cancer, heart failure, and hospitalization (1 point each), and showed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.69 in the validation sample. A comprehensive risk score with additional predictors was also developed (with AUROC=0.72, high concordance between predicted vs observed risk). Mortality probabilities were estimated from these models, with the median score of 3 indicating 12% risk in 3 months and 20% in 6 months, and the highest scores (≥8) indicating 39% risk in 3 months and 55% in 6 months. Patients who did not choose dialysis therapy and did not have a 2-year Medicare history were excluded. Routinely available information can be used by patients with chronic kidney disease, families, and their nephrologists to estimate the risk of early mortality after dialysis therapy initiation, which may facilitate informed decision making regarding treatment options. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between selected dietary scores and the risk of urothelial cell carcinoma: A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dugué, Pierre-Antoine; Hodge, Allison M; Brinkman, Maree T; Bassett, Julie K; Shivappa, Nitin; Hebert, James R; Hopper, John L; English, Dallas R; Milne, Roger L; Giles, Graham G

2016-09-15

Studies investigating the association of food and nutrient consumption with the risk of urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) have produced mixed results. We used three common dietary scores, the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), the Alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010) and the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) to assess the evidence of an association between diet and the risk of UCC. Over a median follow-up time of 21.3 years, 379 incident UCC cases were diagnosed. Dietary scores were calculated using data from a 121-item food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. We used Cox models to compute hazard ratios (HR) for the association between dietary scores (per one standard deviation) and UCC risk. In order to reflect overall adherence to a healthy diet, a metascore was constructed by summing the quintiles of each of the three scores. None of the dietary scores was associated with the risk of UCC overall. A healthier diet was found to be inversely associated with the risk of invasive (MDS: HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.74-1.00, metascore: HR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.71-0.98), but not superficial disease (heterogeneity between subtypes p = 0.04 and p = 0.03, respectively). Results were consistent but weaker for the DII and the AHEI-2010. We found some evidence of effect modification by smoking, in particular for the metascore (Current: HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.58-1.01, Former: HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.64-0.92, Never: HR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.81-1.26, p for heterogeneity = 0.05). A healthy diet may be protective against the risk of invasive, but not superficial, UCC. Promoting healthy dietary habits may help lower the risk of invasive UCC, especially for current and former smokers. © 2016 UICC.

Value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score and Fabry-specific score for predicting new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA in Fabry disease patients without atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Liu, Dan; Hu, Kai; Schmidt, Marie; Müntze, Jonas; Maniuc, Octavian; Gensler, Daniel; Oder, Daniel; Salinger, Tim; Weidemann, Frank; Ertl, Georg; Frantz, Stefan; Wanner, Christoph; Nordbeck, Peter

2018-05-24

To evaluate potential risk factors for stroke or transient ischemic attacks (TIA) and to test the feasibility and efficacy of a Fabry-specific stroke risk score in Fabry disease (FD) patients without atrial fibrillation (AF). FD patients often experience cerebrovascular events (stroke/TIA) at young age. 159 genetically confirmed FD patients without AF (aged 40 ± 14 years, 42.1% male) were included, and risk factors for stroke/TIA events were determined. All patients were followed up over a median period of 60 (quartiles 35-90) months. The pre-defined primary outcomes included new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA and all-cause death. Prior stroke/TIA (HR 19.97, P < .001), angiokeratoma (HR 4.06, P = .010), elevated creatinine (HR 3.74, P = .011), significant left ventricular hypertrophy (HR 4.07, P = .017), and reduced global systolic strain (GLS, HR 5.19, P = .002) remained as independent risk predictors of new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA in FD patients without AF. A Fabry-specific score was established based on above defined risk factors, proving somehow superior to the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in predicting new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA in this cohort (AUC 0.87 vs. 0.75, P = .199). Prior stroke/TIA, angiokeratoma, renal dysfunction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and global systolic dysfunction are independent risk factors for new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA in FD patients without AF. It is feasible to predict new or recurrent cerebral events with the Fabry-specific score based on the above defined risk factors. Future studies are warranted to test if FD patients with high risk for new-onset or recurrent stroke/TIA, as defined by the Fabry-specific score (≥ 2 points), might benefit from antithrombotic therapy. Clinical trial registration HEAL-FABRY (evaluation of HEArt invoLvement in patients with FABRY disease, NCT03362164).

A comparison of genetic variants between proficient low- and high-risk sport participants.

PubMed

Thomson, Cynthia J; Power, Rebecca J; Carlson, Scott R; Rupert, Jim L; Michel, Grégory

2015-01-01

Athletes participating in high-risk sports consistently report higher scores on sensation-seeking measures than do low-risk athletes or non-athletic controls. To determine whether genetic variants commonly associated with sensation seeking were over-represented in such athletes, proficient practitioners of high-risk (n = 141) and low-risk sports (n = 132) were compared for scores on sensation seeking and then genotyped at 33 polymorphic loci in 14 candidate genes. As expected, athletes participating in high-risk sports score higher on sensation seeking than did low-risk sport athletes (P < .01). Genotypes were associated with high-risk sport participation for two genes (stathmin, (P = .004) and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (P = .03)) as well as when demographically matched subsets of the sport cohorts were compared (P < .05); however, in all cases, associations did not survive correction for multiple testing.

Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

PubMed

Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

2015-11-01

The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure.

A new scoring system (DAIGA) for predicting bleeding complications in atrial fibrillation patients after drug-eluting stent implantation with triple antithrombotic therapy.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Norihiro; Yamawaki, Masahiro; Nakano, Masatsugu; Hirano, Keisuke; Araki, Motoharu; Takimura, Hideyuki; Sakamoto, Yasunari; Mori, Shinsuke; Tsutsumi, Masakazu; Ito, Yoshiaki

2016-11-15

No scoring system for evaluating the bleeding risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation with triple antithrombotic therapy (TAT) is available. We aimed to develop a new scoring system for predicting bleeding complications in AF patients after DES implantation with TAT. Between April 2007 and April 2014, 227 AF patients undergoing DES implantation with TAT were enrolled. Bleeding incidence defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium criteria≥2 was investigated and predictors of bleeding complications were evaluated using multivariate analysis. Bleeding complications occurred in 58 patients (25.6%) during follow-up. Multivariate analysis revealed dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) continuation (OR 3.33, P=0.01), age>75 (OR 2.14, P=0.037), international normalized ratio>2.2 (OR 5.82, P<0.001), gastrointestinal ulcer history (OR 3.06, P=0.037), and anemia (OR 2.15, P=0.042) as predictors of major bleeding complications. A score was created using the weighted points proportional to the beta regression coefficient of each variable. The DAIGA score showed better predictive ability for bleeding complications than the HAS-BLED score (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.62, P=0.0003). Bleeding incidence was well stratified: 17.8% in low-risk (scores 0-1), 55.5% in moderate-risk (2-3), and 83.0% in high-risk (4-7) patients (P<0.001). This scoring system is useful for predicting bleeding complications and risk stratification of AF patients after DES implantation with TAT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The cost-effectiveness of using chronic kidney disease risk scores to screen for early-stage chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Yarnoff, Benjamin O; Hoerger, Thomas J; Simpson, Siobhan K; Leib, Alyssa; Burrows, Nilka R; Shrestha, Sundar S; Pavkov, Meda E

2017-03-13

Better treatment during early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may slow progression to end-stage renal disease and decrease associated complications and medical costs. Achieving early treatment of CKD is challenging, however, because a large fraction of persons with CKD are unaware of having this disease. Screening for CKD is one important method for increasing awareness. We examined the cost-effectiveness of identifying persons for early-stage CKD screening (i.e., screening for moderate albuminuria) using published CKD risk scores. We used the CKD Health Policy Model, a micro-simulation model, to simulate the cost-effectiveness of using CKD two published risk scores by Bang et al. and Kshirsagar et al. to identify persons in the US for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria. Alternative risk score thresholds were tested (0.20, 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.02) above which persons were assigned to receive screening at alternative intervals (1-, 2-, and 5-year) for follow-up screening if the first screening was negative. We examined incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental lifetime costs divided by incremental lifetime QALYs, relative to the next higher screening threshold to assess cost-effectiveness. Cost-effective scenarios were determined as those with ICERs less than $50,000 per QALY. Among the cost-effective scenarios, the optimal scenario was determined as the one that resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. ICERs ranged from $8,823 per QALY to $124,626 per QALY for the Bang et al. risk score and $6,342 per QALY to $405,861 per QALY for the Kshirsagar et al. risk score. The Bang et al. risk score with a threshold of 0.02 and 2-year follow-up screening was found to be optimal because it had an ICER less than $50,000 per QALY and resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. This study indicates that using these CKD risk scores may allow clinicians to cost-effectively identify a broader population for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria and potentially detect people with CKD at earlier stages of the disease than current approaches of screening only persons with diabetes or hypertension.

Concordance with World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) guidelines for cancer prevention and obesity-related cancer risk in the Framingham Offspring cohort (1991-2008).

PubMed

Makarem, Nour; Lin, Yong; Bandera, Elisa V; Jacques, Paul F; Parekh, Niyati

2015-02-01

This prospective cohort study evaluates associations between healthful behaviors consistent with WCRF/AICR cancer prevention guidelines and obesity-related cancer risk, as a third of cancers are estimated to be preventable. The study sample consisted of adults from the Framingham Offspring cohort (n = 2,983). From 1991 to 2008, 480 incident doctor-diagnosed obesity-related cancers were identified. Data on diet, measured by a food frequency questionnaire, anthropometric measures, and self-reported physical activity, collected in 1991 was used to construct a 7-component score based on recommendations for body fatness, physical activity, foods that promote weight gain, plant foods, animal foods, alcohol, and food preservation, processing, and preparation. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate associations between the computed score, its components, and subcomponents in relation to obesity-related cancer risk. The overall score was not associated with obesity-related cancer risk after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, energy, and preexisting conditions (HR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.86-1.02). When score components were evaluated separately, for every unit increment in the alcohol score, there was 29 % lower risk of obesity-related cancers (HR 0.71, 95 % CI 0.51-0.99) and 49-71 % reduced risk of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers. Every unit increment in the subcomponent score for non-starchy plant foods (fruits, vegetables, and legumes) among participants who consume starchy vegetables was associated with 66 % reduced risk of colorectal cancer (HR 0.44, 95 % CI 0.22-0.88). Lower alcohol consumption and a plant-based diet consistent with the cancer prevention guidelines were associated with reduced risk of obesity-related cancers in this population.

Polygenic Risk Score for Alzheimer's Disease: Implications for Memory Performance and Hippocampal Volumes in Early Life.

PubMed

Axelrud, Luiza K; Santoro, Marcos L; Pine, Daniel S; Talarico, Fernanda; Gadelha, Ary; Manfro, Gisele G; Pan, Pedro M; Jackowski, Andrea; Picon, Felipe; Brietzke, Elisa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Miguel, Eurípedes C; Rohde, Luis A; Hakonarson, Hakon; Pausova, Zdenka; Belangero, Sintia; Paus, Tomas; Salum, Giovanni A

2018-06-01

Alzheimer's disease is a heritable neurodegenerative disorder in which early-life precursors may manifest in cognition and brain structure. The authors evaluate this possibility by examining, in youths, associations among polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease, cognitive abilities, and hippocampal volume. Participants were children 6-14 years of age in two Brazilian cities, constituting the discovery (N=364) and replication samples (N=352). As an additional replication, data from a Canadian sample (N=1,029), with distinct tasks, MRI protocol, and genetic risk, were included. Cognitive tests quantified memory and executive function. Reading and writing abilities were assessed by standardized tests. Hippocampal volumes were derived from the Multiple Automatically Generated Templates (MAGeT) multi-atlas segmentation brain algorithm. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease was quantified using summary statistics from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project. Analyses showed that for the Brazilian discovery sample, each one-unit increase in z-score for Alzheimer's polygenic risk score significantly predicted a 0.185 decrement in z-score for immediate recall and a 0.282 decrement for delayed recall. Findings were similar for the Brazilian replication sample (immediate and delayed recall, β=-0.259 and β=-0.232, both significant). Quantile regressions showed lower hippocampal volumes bilaterally for individuals with high polygenic risk scores. Associations fell short of significance for the Canadian sample. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease may affect early-life cognition and hippocampal volumes, as shown in two independent samples. These data support previous evidence that some forms of late-life dementia may represent developmental conditions with roots in childhood. This result may vary depending on a sample's genetic risk and may be specific to some types of memory tasks.

Global Risk Score and Clinical SYNTAX Score as Predictors of Clinical Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Unprotected Left Main Percutaneous Catheter Intervention

PubMed Central

Cuenza, Lucky; Collado, Marianne P.; Ho Khe Sui, James

2017-01-01

Background Risk stratification is an important component of left main percutaneous catheter intervention (PCI) which has emerged as a feasible alternative to cardiac surgery. We sought to compare the clinical SYNTAX score and the global risk score in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing unprotected left main PCI in our institution. Methods Clinical, angiographic and procedural characteristics of 92 patients who underwent unprotected left main PCI (mean age 62 ± 12.1 years) were analyzed. Patients were risk stratified into tertiles of high, intermediate and low risk using the global risk score (GRS) and the clinical SYNTAX score (CSS) and were prospectively followed up at 1 year for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), defined as a composite of all cause mortality, cardiac mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary artery bypass, and target vessel revascularization. Results There were 26 (28.2%) who experienced MACEs, of which 10 (10.8%) patients died. Multivariable hazards analysis showed that the GRS (hazard ratio (HR) = 5.5, P = 0.001) and CSS (HR = 4.3, P = 0.001) were both independent predictors of MACEs. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed higher incidence of MACEs with the intermediate and higher risk categories compared to those classified as low risk. Receiver-operator characteristic analysis showed that the GRS has better discriminatory ability than the CSS in the prediction of 1 year MACEs (0.891 vs. 0.743, P = 0.007). Conclusion The GRS and CSS are predictive of outcomes after left main PCI. The GRS appears to have superior predictive and prognostic utility compared to the CSS. This study emphasizes the importance of combining both anatomic and clinical variables for optimum prognostication and management decisions in left main PCI. PMID:29317974

The UK-PBC risk scores: Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis.

PubMed

Carbone, Marco; Sharp, Stephen J; Flack, Steve; Paximadas, Dimitrios; Spiess, Kelly; Adgey, Carolyn; Griffiths, Laura; Lim, Reyna; Trembling, Paul; Williamson, Kate; Wareham, Nick J; Aldersley, Mark; Bathgate, Andrew; Burroughs, Andrew K; Heneghan, Michael A; Neuberger, James M; Thorburn, Douglas; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Cordell, Heather J; Alexander, Graeme J; Jones, David E J; Sandford, Richard N; Mells, George F

2016-03-01

The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Predictive Accuracy of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version Risk and Change Scores in Treated Canadian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Sexual Offenders.

PubMed

Olver, Mark E; Sowden, Justina N; Kingston, Drew A; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Wong, Stephen C P

2018-04-01

The present study examined the predictive properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal sexual offenders in a combined sample of 1,063 Canadian federally incarcerated men. All men participated in sexual offender treatment programming through the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) at sites across its five regions. The Static-99R was also examined for comparison purposes. In total, 393 of the men were identified as Aboriginal (i.e., First Nations, Métis, Circumpolar) while 670 were non-Aboriginal and primarily White. Aboriginal men scored significantly higher on the Static-99R and VRS-SO and had higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism; however, there were no significant differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal groups on treatment change with both groups demonstrating close to a half-standard deviation of change pre and post treatment. VRS-SO risk and change scores significantly predicted sexual and violent recidivism over fixed 5- and 10-year follow-ups for both racial/ancestral groups. Cox regression survival analyses also demonstrated positive treatment changes to be significantly associated with reductions in sexual and violent recidivism among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men after controlling baseline risk. A series of follow-up Cox regression analyses demonstrated that risk and change score information accounted for much of the observed differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men in rates of sexual recidivism; however, marked group differences persisted in rates of general violent recidivism even after controlling for these covariates. The results support the predictive properties of VRS-SO risk and change scores with treated Canadian Aboriginal sexual offenders.

Mortality and cardiovascular morbidity within 30 days of discharge following acute coronary syndrome in a contemporary European cohort of patients: How can early risk prediction be improved? The six-month GRACE risk score.

PubMed

Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; Abu-Assi, Emad; Cambeiro-González, Cristina; Álvarez-Álvarez, Belén; Pereira-López, Eva; Gestal-Romaní, Santiago; Pedreira-López, Milagros; Rigueiro-Veloso, Pedro; Virgós-Lamela, Alejandro; García-Acuña, José María; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

2015-06-01

Given the increasing focus on early mortality and readmission rates among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), this study was designed to evaluate the accuracy of the GRACE risk score for identifying patients at high risk of 30-day post-discharge mortality and cardiovascular readmission. This was a retrospective study carried out in a single center with 4229 ACS patients discharged between 2004 and 2010. The study endpoint was the combination of 30-day post-discharge mortality and readmission due to reinfarction, heart failure or stroke. One hundred and fourteen patients had 30-day events: 0.7% mortality, 1% reinfarction, 1.3% heart failure, and 0.2% stroke. After multivariate analysis, the six-month GRACE risk score was associated with an increased risk of 30-day events (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04; p<0.001), demonstrating good discrimination (C-statistic: 0.79 ± 0.02) and optimal fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were adequate (78.1% and 63.3%, respectively), and negative predictive value was excellent (99.1%). In separate analyses for each event of interest (all-cause mortality, reinfarction, heart failure and stroke), assessment of the six-month GRACE risk score also demonstrated good discrimination and fit, as well as adequate predictive values. The six-month GRACE risk score is a useful tool to predict 30-day post-discharge death and early cardiovascular readmission. Clinicians may find it simple to use with the online and mobile app score calculator and applicable to clinical daily practice. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Complementary Feeding and Diarrhea and Respiratory Infection Among HIV-exposed Tanzanian Infants

PubMed Central

Kamenju, P; Liu, E; Hertzmark, E; Spiegelman, D; Kisenge, R.R.; Kupka, R; Aboud, S; Manji, K.P.; Duggan, C; Fawzi, W.W.

2016-01-01

Objective To examine the association between complementary feeding (CF) and risks of diarrhea and acute respiratory infection (ARI) among HIV-exposed infants aged 6–24 months. Design We prospectively employed an Infant and Child Feeding Index (ICFI) to measure CF practices (breastfeeding status, food consistency, dietary diversity, food group frequency and meal frequency). We determined the association of ICFI and each of its components with the risk of diarrhea and ARI. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to estimate the relative risks for morbidity episodes. Setting Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Subjects 2092 HIV-exposed infants followed from 6 months of age to 24 months of age. Results The ICFI score ranged from 0 to 9; the median score was 6 (Inter-Quartile Range; IQR=4, 7). Low ICFI scores were likely associated with increased risk of dysentery (low vs. high tertile Risk Ratio, RR: 1.40; 95% CI: 0.93, 2.10; P for trend=0.02) and respiratory infection (low vs. high tertile RR: 1.16; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.41; P for trend=0.01). Low dietary diversity scores were likely associated with higher risk of dysentery (low vs. high tertile RR: 1.47; 95% CI: 0.92, 2.35; P for trend=0.03) and respiratory infection (low vs. high tertile RR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.76; P for trend=0.01). Low food consistency scores were associated with higher risk of respiratory infection (RR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.40, 2.26; P<0.01). Conclusions In this setting, low ICFI, dietary diversity and food consistency scores were likely associated with increased risk of diarrhea and acute respiratory infection among HIV-exposed infants. PMID:27861238

Fall risk in Chinese community-dwelling older adults: A physiological profile assessment study.

PubMed

Siong, Kar-Ho; Kwan, Marcella Mun-San; Lord, Stephen R; Lam, Andrew Kwok-Cheung; Tsang, William Wai-Nam; Cheong, Allen Ming-Yan

2016-02-01

The short-form Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA) is increasingly used in clinical practice for assessing fall risk in older people. However, a normative database is only available for Caucasian populations. The purpose of the present study was to develop a normative database for Hong Kong Chinese older people and examine the fall risk profile of this population. A total of 622 participants aged 60-95 years were recruited. Participants underwent the PPA (containing tests of contrast sensitivity, proprioception, quadriceps strength, reaction time and sway), and composite fall risk scores were computed. Participants were then followed up for falls for 1 year. Quadriceps strength and lower limb proprioception scores were comparable with those reported for Caucasian populations. However, contrast sensitivity, simple reaction time and postural sway scores were relatively poor. The average composite fall risk score was 1.7 ± 1.5, showing a "moderate" fall risk when compared with the Caucasian norms. Despite the relatively poor physical performances and moderately high fall risk scores, the incidence of one plus falls in the 1-year follow-up period was just 16.4%, with just 2.6% reporting two plus falls. The area under the curve for composite fall risk scores in discriminating fallers from non-fallers was 0.53 (95% CI 0.45-0.60). Despite poorer performance in PPA tests, the incidence of prospective falls in a Hong Kong Chinese population was low. In consequence, the PPA could not discriminate well between fallers and non-fallers. The present study provided normality data for short-form PPA measures for older Chinese people as a reference for further studies. © 2015 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

2017-12-01

Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Executive function, but not memory, associates with incident coronary heart disease and stroke.

PubMed

Rostamian, Somayeh; van Buchem, Mark A; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Jukema, J Wouter; Mooijaart, Simon P; Sabayan, Behnam; de Craen, Anton J M

2015-09-01

To evaluate the association of performance in cognitive domains executive function and memory with incident coronary heart disease and stroke in older participants without dementia. We included 3,926 participants (mean age 75 years, 44% male) at risk for cardiovascular diseases from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) with Mini-Mental State Examination score ≥24 points. Scores on the Stroop Color-Word Test (selective attention) and the Letter Digit Substitution Test (processing speed) were converted to Z scores and averaged into a composite executive function score. Likewise, scores of the Picture Learning Test (immediate and delayed memory) were transformed into a composite memory score. Associations of executive function and memory were longitudinally assessed with risk of coronary heart disease and stroke using multivariable Cox regression models. During 3.2 years of follow-up, incidence rates of coronary heart disease and stroke were 30.5 and 12.4 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. In multivariable models, participants in the lowest third of executive function, as compared to participants in the highest third, had 1.85-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39-2.45) higher risk of coronary heart disease and 1.51-fold (95% CI 0.99-2.30) higher risk of stroke. Participants in the lowest third of memory had no increased risk of coronary heart disease (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% CI 0.74-1.32) or stroke (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% CI 0.57-1.32). Lower executive function, but not memory, is associated with higher risk of coronary heart disease and stroke. Lower executive function, as an independent risk indicator, might better reflect brain vascular pathologies. © 2015 American Academy of Neurology.

Comparison of risk scores for the prediction of stroke in African Americans: Findings from the Jackson Heart Study.

PubMed

Foraker, Randi E; Greiner, Melissa; Sims, Mario; Tucker, Katherine L; Towfighi, Amytis; Bidulescu, Aurelian; Shoben, Abigail B; Smith, Sakima; Talegawkar, Sameera; Blackshear, Chad; Wang, Wei; Hardy, Natalie Chantelle; O'Brien, Emily

2016-07-01

Evidence from existing cohort studies supports the prediction of incident coronary heart disease and stroke using 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association's cardiovascular health (CVH) metric. We included all Jackson Heart Study participants with complete scoring information at the baseline study visit (2000-2004) who had no history of stroke (n = 4,140). We used Kaplan-Meier methods to calculate the cumulative incidence of stroke and used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for stroke according to CVD risk and CVH score. We compared the discrimination of the 2 models according to the Harrell c index and plotted predicted vs observed stroke risk calibration plots for each of the 2 models. The median age of the African American participants was 54.5 years, and 65% were female. The cumulative incidence of stroke increased across worsening categories of CVD risk and CVH. A 1-unit increase in CVD risk increased the hazard of stroke (1.07, 1.06-1.08), whereas each 1-unit increase in CVH corresponded to a decreased hazard of stroke (0.76, 0.69-0.83). As evidenced by the c statistics, the CVH model was less discriminating than the CVD risk model (0.59 [0.55-0.64] vs 0.79 [0.76-0.83]). Both scores were associated with incident stroke in a dose-response fashion; however, the CVD risk model was more discriminating than the CVH model. The CVH score may still be preferable for its simplicity in application to broad patient populations and public health efforts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the validity of osteoporosis and fracture risk assessment tools (IOF One Minute Test, SCORE, and FRAX) in postmenopausal Palestinian women.

PubMed

Kharroubi, Akram; Saba, Elias; Ghannam, Ibrahim; Darwish, Hisham

2017-12-01

The need for simple self-assessment tools is necessary to predict women at high risk for developing osteoporosis. In this study, tools like the IOF One Minute Test, Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), and Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE) were found to be valid for Palestinian women. The threshold for predicting women at risk for each tool was estimated. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the validity of the updated IOF (International Osteoporosis Foundation) One Minute Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Test, FRAX, SCORE as well as age alone to detect the risk of developing osteoporosis in postmenopausal Palestinian women. Three hundred eighty-two women 45 years and older were recruited including 131 women with osteoporosis and 251 controls following bone mineral density (BMD) measurement, 287 completed questionnaires of the different risk assessment tools. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were evaluated for each tool using bone BMD as the gold standard for osteoporosis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was the highest for FRAX calculated with BMD for predicting hip fractures (0.897) followed by FRAX for major fractures (0.826) with cut-off values ˃1.5 and ˃7.8%, respectively. The IOF One Minute Test AUC (0.629) was the lowest compared to other tested tools but with sufficient accuracy for predicting the risk of developing osteoporosis with a cut-off value ˃4 total yes questions out of 18. SCORE test and age alone were also as good predictors of risk for developing osteoporosis. According to the ROC curve for age, women ≥64 years had a higher risk of developing osteoporosis. Higher percentage of women with low BMD (T-score ≤-1.5) or osteoporosis (T-score ≤-2.5) was found among women who were not exposed to the sun, who had menopause before the age of 45 years, or had lower body mass index (BMI) compared to controls. Women who often fall had lower BMI and approximately 27% of the recruited postmenopausal Palestinian women had accidents that caused fractures. Simple self-assessment tools like FRAX without BMD, SCORE, and the IOF One Minute Tests were valid for predicting Palestinian postmenopausal women at high risk of developing osteoporosis.

External Validity of a Risk Stratification Score Predicting Early Distant Brain Failure and Salvage Whole Brain Radiation Therapy After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases.

PubMed

Press, Robert H; Boselli, Danielle M; Symanowski, James T; Lankford, Scott P; McCammon, Robert J; Moeller, Benjamin J; Heinzerling, John H; Fasola, Carolina E; Burri, Stuart H; Patel, Kirtesh R; Asher, Anthony L; Sumrall, Ashley L; Curran, Walter J; Shu, Hui-Kuo G; Crocker, Ian R; Prabhu, Roshan S

2017-07-01

A scoring system using pretreatment factors was recently published for predicting the risk of early (≤6 months) distant brain failure (DBF) and salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone. Four risk factors were identified: (1) lack of prior WBRT; (2) melanoma or breast histologic features; (3) multiple brain metastases; and (4) total volume of brain metastases <1.3 cm 3 , with each factor assigned 1 point. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of this scoring system and its appropriateness for clinical use in an independent external patient population. We reviewed the records of 247 patients with 388 brain metastases treated with SRS between 2010 at 2013 at Levine Cancer Institute. The Press (Emory) risk score was calculated and applied to the validation cohort population, and subsequent risk groups were analyzed using cumulative incidence. The low-risk (LR) group had a significantly lower risk of early DBF than did the high-risk (HR) group (22.6% vs 44%, P=.004), but there was no difference between the HR and intermediate-risk (IR) groups (41.2% vs 44%, P=.79). Total lesion volume <1.3 cm 3  (P=.004), malignant melanoma (P=.007), and multiple metastases (P<.001) were validated as predictors for early DBF. Prior WBRT and breast cancer histologic features did not retain prognostic significance. Risk stratification for risk of early salvage WBRT were similar, with a trend toward an increased risk for HR compared with LR (P=.09) but no difference between IR and HR (P=.53). The 3-level Emory risk score was shown to not be externally valid, but the model was able to stratify between 2 levels (LR and not-LR [combined IR and HR]) for early (≤6 months) DBF. These results reinforce the importance of validating predictive models in independent cohorts. Further refinement of this scoring system with molecular information and in additional contemporary patient populations is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of stroke risk scores in older people with atrial fibrillation not taking warfarin: comparative cohort study from BAFTA trial.

PubMed

Hobbs, F D R; Roalfe, A K; Lip, G Y H; Fletcher, K; Fitzmaurice, D A; Mant, J

2011-06-23

To compare the predictive power of the main existing and recently proposed schemes for stratification of risk of stroke in older patients with atrial fibrillation. Comparative cohort study of eight risk stratification scores. Trial of thromboprophylaxis in stroke, the Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation in the Aged (BAFTA) trial. 665 patients aged 75 or over with atrial fibrillation based in the community who were randomised to the BAFTA trial and were not taking warfarin throughout or for part of the study period. Events rates of stroke and thromboembolism. 54 (8%) patients had an ischaemic stroke, four (0.6%) had a systemic embolism, and 13 (2%) had a transient ischaemic attack. The distribution of patients classified into the three risk categories (low, moderate, high) was similar across three of the risk stratification scores (revised CHADS(2), NICE, ACC/AHA/ESC), with most patients categorised as high risk (65-69%, n = 460-457) and the remaining classified as moderate risk. The original CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score identified the lowest number as high risk (27%, n = 180). The incremental risk scores of CHADS(2), Rietbrock modified CHADS(2), and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (CHA(2)DS(2)-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex) failed to show an increase in risk at the upper range of scores. The predictive accuracy was similar across the tested schemes with C statistic ranging from 0.55 (original CHADS(2)) to 0.62 (Rietbrock modified CHADS(2)), with all except the original CHADS(2) predicting better than chance. Bootstrapped paired comparisons provided no evidence of significant differences between the discriminatory ability of the schemes. Based on this single trial population, current risk stratification schemes in older people with atrial fibrillation have only limited ability to predict the risk of stroke. Given the systematic undertreatment of older people with anticoagulation, and the relative safety of warfarin versus aspirin in those aged over 70, there could be a pragmatic rationale for classifying all patients over 75 as "high risk" until better tools are available.

Predicting the occurrence of embolic events: an analysis of 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the Italian Study on Endocarditis (SEI).

PubMed

Rizzi, Marco; Ravasio, Veronica; Carobbio, Alessandra; Mattucci, Irene; Crapis, Massimo; Stellini, Roberto; Pasticci, Maria Bruna; Chinello, Pierangelo; Falcone, Marco; Grossi, Paolo; Barbaro, Francesco; Pan, Angelo; Viale, Pierluigi; Durante-Mangoni, Emanuele

2014-04-29

Embolic events are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. We analyzed the database of the prospective cohort study SEI in order to identify factors associated with the occurrence of embolic events and to develop a scoring system for the assessment of the risk of embolism. We retrospectively analyzed 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the multicenter study SEI. Predictors of embolism were identified. Risk factors identified at multivariate analysis as predictive of embolism in left-sided endocarditis, were used for the development of a risk score: 1 point was assigned to each risk factor (total risk score range: minimum 0 points; maximum 2 points). Three categories were defined by the score: low (0 points), intermediate (1 point), or high risk (2 points); the probability of embolic events per risk category was calculated for each day on treatment (day 0 through day 30). There were 499 episodes of infective endocarditis (34%) that were complicated by ≥ 1 embolic event. Most embolic events occurred early in the clinical course (first week of therapy: 15.5 episodes per 1000 patient days; second week: 3.7 episodes per 1000 patient days). In the total cohort, the factors associated with the occurrence of embolism at multivariate analysis were prosthetic valve localization (odds ratio, 1.84), right-sided endocarditis (odds ratio, 3.93), Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.23) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 1.86). In left-sided endocarditis, Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.1) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 2.1) were independently associated with embolic events; the 30-day cumulative incidence of embolism varied with risk score category (low risk, 12%; intermediate risk, 25%; high risk, 38%; p < 0.001). Staphylococcus aureus etiology and vegetation size are associated with an increased risk of embolism. In left-sided endocarditis, a simple scoring system, which combines etiology and vegetation size with time on antimicrobials, might contribute to a better assessment of the risk of embolism, and to a more individualized analysis of indications and contraindications for early surgery.

Coronary Artery Calcium Volume and Density: Potential Interactions and Overall Predictive Value: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Criqui, Michael H; Knox, Jessica B; Denenberg, Julie O; Forbang, Nketi I; McClelland, Robyn L; Novotny, Thomas E; Sandfort, Veit; Waalen, Jill; Blaha, Michael J; Allison, Matthew A

2017-08-01

This study sought to determine the possibility of interactions between coronary artery calcium (CAC) volume or CAC density with each other, and with age, sex, ethnicity, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score, diabetes status, and renal function by estimated glomerular filtration rate, and, using differing CAC scores, to determine the improvement over the ASCVD risk score in risk prediction and reclassification. In MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), CAC volume was positively and CAC density inversely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. A total of 3,398 MESA participants free of clinical CVD but with prevalent CAC at baseline were followed for incident CVD events. During a median 11.0 years of follow-up, there were 390 CVD events, 264 of which were coronary heart disease (CHD). With each SD increase of ln CAC volume (1.62), risk of CHD increased 73% (p < 0.001) and risk of CVD increased 61% (p < 0.001). Conversely, each SD increase of CAC density (0.69) was associated with 28% lower risk of CHD (p < 0.001) and 25% lower risk of CVD (p < 0.001). CAC density was inversely associated with risk at all levels of CAC volume (i.e., no interaction was present). In multivariable Cox models, significant interactions were present for CAC volume with age and ASCVD risk score for both CHD and CVD, and CAC density with ASCVD risk score for CVD. Hazard ratios were generally stronger in the lower risk groups. Receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve and Net Reclassification Index analyses showed better prediction by CAC volume than by Agatston, and the addition of CAC density to CAC volume further significantly improved prediction. The inverse association between CAC density and incident CHD and CVD events is robust across strata of other CVD risk factors. Added to the ASCVD risk score, CAC volume and density provided the strongest prediction for CHD and CVD events, and the highest correct reclassification. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in J-SOAP-II and SAVRY Scores Over the Course of Residential, Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment for Adolescent Sexual Offending

PubMed Central

Viljoen, Jodi L.; Gray, Andrew L.; Shaffer, Catherine; Latzman, Natasha E.; Scalora, Mario J.; Ullman, Daniel

2018-01-01

Although the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II (J-SOAP-II) and the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) include an emphasis on dynamic, or modifiable factors, there has been little research on dynamic changes on these tools. To help address this gap, we compared admission and discharge scores of 163 adolescents who attended a residential, cognitive-behavioral treatment program for sexual offending. Based on reliable change indices, one half of youth showed a reliable decrease on the J-SOAP-II Dynamic Risk Total Score and one third of youth showed a reliable decrease on the SAVRY Dynamic Risk Total Score. Contrary to expectations, decreases in risk factors and increases in protective factors did not predict reduced sexual, violent nonsexual, or any reoffending. In addition, no associations were found between scores on the Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version and levels of change. Overall, the J-SOAP-II and the SAVRY hold promise in measuring change, but further research is needed. PMID:26199271

Changes in J-SOAP-II and SAVRY Scores Over the Course of Residential, Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment for Adolescent Sexual Offending.

PubMed

Viljoen, Jodi L; Gray, Andrew L; Shaffer, Catherine; Latzman, Natasha E; Scalora, Mario J; Ullman, Daniel

2017-06-01

Although the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II) and the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) include an emphasis on dynamic, or modifiable factors, there has been little research on dynamic changes on these tools. To help address this gap, we compared admission and discharge scores of 163 adolescents who attended a residential, cognitive-behavioral treatment program for sexual offending. Based on reliable change indices, one half of youth showed a reliable decrease on the J-SOAP-II Dynamic Risk Total Score and one third of youth showed a reliable decrease on the SAVRY Dynamic Risk Total Score. Contrary to expectations, decreases in risk factors and increases in protective factors did not predict reduced sexual, violent nonsexual, or any reoffending. In addition, no associations were found between scores on the Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version and levels of change. Overall, the J-SOAP-II and the SAVRY hold promise in measuring change, but further research is needed.

[Carotid intima-media thickness distribution according to the stratification of cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham-REGICOR and score function charts].

PubMed

Hermida-Ameijeiras, Á; López-Paz, J E; Riveiro-Cruz, M A; Calvo-Gómez, C

2016-01-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) has been suggested as a further tool for risk function charts. The aim of this study was to describethe relationship between cIMT and cardiovascular risk (CVR) estimation according to Framingham-REGICOR and SCORE equations. Observational, cross-sectional cohort study from 362 hypertensive subjects. Demographic and clinical information were collected as well as laboratory, ultrasonographic and CVR estimation by the Framingham-REGICOR and SCORE functions. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software (version 20,0). To analyze the data, statistical tests such as Chi-square, T-test, ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used. According to both functions, differences on mean cIMT were found between low CVR group and intermediate to high groups. No differences were found between intermediate and high risk groups (cIMT: 0,73mm low risk patients vs. 0,89 or 0,88mm respectively according to SCORE function and cIMT: 0,73 vs. 0,85 or 0,87mm respectively according to Framingham-REGICOR function). cIMT correlated positively with CVR estimation according to both SCORE (r=0,421; P<.01), and Framingham-REGICOR functions (r=0,363; P<.01). cIMT correlates positively with CVR estimated by SCORE and Framingham-REGICOR functions. cIMT in those subjects at intermediate risk is similar to those at high risk. Our findings highlight the importance of carotid ultrasound in identifying silent target-organ damage in those patients at intermediate CVR. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Gestational weight gain and the risk of offspring obesity at 10 and 16 years: a prospective cohort study in low-income women.

PubMed

Diesel, J C; Eckhardt, C L; Day, N L; Brooks, M M; Arslanian, S A; Bodnar, L M

2015-09-01

To study the association between gestational weight gain (GWG) and offspring obesity risk at ages chosen to approximate prepuberty (10 years) and postpuberty (16 years). Prospective pregnancy cohort. Pittsburgh, PA, USA. Low-income pregnant women (n = 514) receiving prenatal care at an obstetric residency clinic and their singleton offspring. Gestational weight gain was classified based on maternal GWG-for-gestational-age Z-score charts and was modelled using flexible spline terms in modified multivariable Poisson regression models. Obesity at 10 or 16 years, defined as body mass index (BMI) Z-scores ≥95th centile of the 2000 CDC references, based on measured height and weight. The prevalence of offspring obesity was 20% at 10 years and 22% at 16 years. In the overall sample, the risk of offspring obesity at 10 and 16 years increased when GWG exceeded a GWG Z-score of 0 SD (equivalent to 30 kg at 40 weeks); but for gains below a Z-score of 0 SD there was no relationship with child obesity risk. The association between GWG and offspring obesity varied by prepregnancy BMI. Among mothers with a pregravid BMI <25 kg/m(2) , the risk of offspring obesity increased when GWG Z-score exceeded 0 SD, yet among overweight women (BMI ≥25 kg/m(2) ), there was no association between GWG Z-scores and offspring obesity risk. Among lean women, higher GWG may have lasting effects on offspring obesity risk. © 2015 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score Predicts Hospital Charges and Resource Utilization After Aortic Valve Replacement

PubMed Central

Arnaoutakis, George J.; George, Timothy J.; Alejo, Diane E.; Merlo, Christian A.; Baumgartner, William A.; Cameron, Duke E.; Shah, Ashish S.

2011-01-01

Context The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) predicted mortality risk score on resource utilization after aortic valve replacement (AVR) has not been previously studied. Objective We hypothesize that increasing STS risk scores in patients having AVR are associated with greater hospital charges. Design, Setting, and Patients Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing AVR at a tertiary care, university hospital over a ten-year period (1/2000–12/2009) were retrospectively reviewed. The current STS formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles (Q), index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with Rank-Sum tests. Linear regression and Spearman’s coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. Main Outcome Measures Inflation-adjusted index hospitalization total charges Results 553 patients had AVR during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for AVR. Median charges were greater in the upper Q of AVR patients [Q1–3,$39,949 (IQR32,708–51,323) vs Q4,$62,301 (IQR45,952–97,103), p=<0.01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between STS risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient: 0.06, 95%CI 0.05–0.07, p<0.01). Spearman’s correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in STS risk score was associated with an added $3,000 in hospital charges. Conclusions This study showed increasing STS risk score predicts greater charges after AVR. As competing therapies such as percutaneous valve replacement emerge to treat high risk patients, these results serve as a benchmark to compare resource utilization. PMID:21497834

Risk Score to Predict Need for Intensive Care in Initially Hemodynamically Stable Adults With Non-ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

PubMed

Fanaroff, Alexander C; Chen, Anita Y; Thomas, Laine E; Pieper, Karen S; Garratt, Kirk N; Peterson, Eric D; Newby, L Kristin; de Lemos, James A; Kosiborod, Mikhail N; Amsterdam, Ezra A; Wang, Tracy Y

2018-05-25

Intensive care unit (ICU) use for initially stable patients presenting with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) varies widely across hospitals and minimally correlates with severity of illness. We aimed to develop a bedside risk score to assist in identifying high-risk patients with NSTEMI for ICU admission. Using the Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network (ACTION) Registry linked to Medicare data, we identified patients with NSTEMI aged ≥65 years without cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest on presentation. Complications requiring ICU care were defined as subsequent development of cardiac arrest, shock, high-grade atrioventricular block, respiratory failure, stroke, or death during the index hospitalization. We developed and validated a model and integer risk score (Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network (ACTION) ICU risk score) that uses variables present at hospital admission to predict requirement for ICU care. Of 29 973 patients with NSTEMI, 4282 (14%) developed a complication requiring ICU-level care, yet 12 879 (43%) received care in an ICU. Signs or symptoms of heart failure, initial heart rate, initial systolic blood pressure, initial troponin, initial serum creatinine, prior revascularization, chronic lung disease, ST-segment depression, and age had statistically significant associations with requirement for ICU care after adjusting for other risk factors. The ACTION ICU risk score had a C-statistic of 0.72. It identified 11% of patients as having very high risk (>30%) of developing complications requiring ICU care and 49% as having low likelihood (<10%) of requiring an ICU. The ACTION ICU risk score quantifies the risk of initially stable patients with NSTEMI developing a complication requiring ICU care, and could be used to more effectively allocate limited ICU resources. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Problematic Dichotomization of Risk for Intensive Care Unit (ICU)-Acquired Invasive Candidiasis: Results Using a Risk-Predictive Model to Categorize 3 Levels of Risk From a Multicenter Prospective Cohort of Australian ICU Patients.

PubMed

Playford, E Geoffrey; Lipman, Jeffrey; Jones, Michael; Lau, Anna F; Kabir, Masrura; Chen, Sharon C-A; Marriott, Deborah J; Seppelt, Ian; Gottlieb, Thomas; Cheung, Winston; Iredell, Jonathan R; McBryde, Emma S; Sorrell, Tania C

2016-12-01

 Delayed antifungal therapy for invasive candidiasis (IC) contributes to poor outcomes. Predictive risk models may allow targeted antifungal prophylaxis to those at greatest risk.  A prospective cohort study of 6685 consecutive nonneutropenic patients admitted to 7 Australian intensive care units (ICUs) for ≥72 hours was performed. Clinical risk factors for IC occurring prior to and following ICU admission, colonization with Candida species on surveillance cultures from 3 sites assessed twice weekly, and the occurrence of IC ≥72 hours following ICU admission or ≤72 hours following ICU discharge were measured. From these parameters, a risk-predictive model for the development of ICU-acquired IC was then derived.  Ninety-six patients (1.43%) developed ICU-acquired IC. A simple summation risk-predictive model using the 10 independently significant variables associated with IC demonstrated overall moderate accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.82). No single threshold score could categorize patients into clinically useful high- and low-risk groups. However, using 2 threshold scores, 3 patient cohorts could be identified: those at high risk (score ≥6, 4.8% of total cohort, positive predictive value [PPV] 11.7%), those at low risk (score ≤2, 43.1% of total cohort, PPV 0.24%), and those at intermediate risk (score 3-5, 52.1% of total cohort, PPV 1.46%).  Dichotomization of ICU patients into high- and low-risk groups for IC risk is problematic. Categorizing patients into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups may more efficiently target early antifungal strategies and utilization of newer diagnostic tests. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

A clinical score to predict the need for intraaortic balloon pump in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

PubMed

Miceli, Antonio; Duggan, Simon M J; Capoun, Radek; Romeo, Francesco; Caputo, Massimo; Angelini, Gianni D

2010-08-01

There is no accepted consensus on the definition of high-risk patients who may benefit from the use of intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The aim of this study was to develop a risk model to identify high-risk patients and predict the need for IABP insertion during CABG. From April 1996 to December 2006, 8,872 consecutive patients underwent isolated CABG; of these 182 patients (2.1%) received intraoperative or postoperative IABP. The scoring risk model was developed in 4,575 patients (derivation dataset) and validated on the remaining patients (validation dataset). Predictive accuracy was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Mortality was 1% in the entire cohort and 18.7% (22 patients) in the group which received IABP. Multivariable analysis showed that age greater than 70 years, moderate and poor left ventricular dysfunction, previous cardiac surgery, emergency operation, left main disease, Canadian Cardiovascular Society 3-4 class, and recent myocardial infarction were independent risk factors for the need of IABP insertion. Three risk groups were identified. The observed probability of receiving IABP and mortality in the validation dataset was 36.4% and 10% in the high-risk group (score >14), 10.9% and 2.8% in the medium-risk group (score 7 to 13), and 1.7% and 0.7% in the low-risk group (score 0 to 6). This simple clinical risk model based on preoperative clinical data can be used to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from elective insertion of IABP during CABG. Copyright 2010 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and testing of a DVT risk assessment tool: providing evidence of validity and reliability.

PubMed

McCaffrey, Ruth; Bishop, Mary; Adonis-Rizzo, Marie; Williamson, Ellen; McPherson, Melanie; Cruikshank, Alice; Carrier, Vicki Jo; Sands, Simone; Pigano, Diane; Girard, Patricia; Lauzon, Cathy

2007-01-01

Hospital-acquired deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolisms (PE) are preventable problems that can increase mortality. Early assessment and recognition of risk as well as initiating appropriate prevention measures can prevent DVT or PE. The purpose of this research project was to develop a DVT risk assessment tool and test the tool for validity and reliability. Three phases were undertaken in developing and testing the JFK Medical Center DVT risk assessment tool. Investigation and clarification of risk and predisposing factors for DVT were identified from the literature, expert nursing knowledge, and medical staff input. Second, item development and weighting were undertaken. Third, parametric testing for content validity measured the differences in mean assessment tool scores between a group of patients who developed DVT in the hospital and a demographically similar group who did not develop DVT. Interrater reliability was measured by having three different nurses score each patient and compare the differences in scores among the three. The DVT group had significantly higher scores on the JFK DVT assessment scale than did those who did not experience DVT. Interrater reliability showed a strong correlation among the scores of the three nurses (.98). Providing a valid and reliable tool for measuring the risk for DVT or PE in hospitalized patients will enable nurses to intervene early in patients at risk. Basing DVT risk assessment on the evidence provided in this study will assist nurses in becoming more confident in recognizing the necessity for interventions in hospitalized patients and decreasing risk. Nurses can now evaluate patients at risk for DVT or PE using the JFK Medial Center's risk assessment tool.

Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

2016-01-01

Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.