Adaptive output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear systems using single-hidden-layer neural networks.

PubMed

Hovakimyan, N; Nardi, F; Calise, A; Kim, Nakwan

2002-01-01

We consider adaptive output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear systems, in which both the dynamics and the dimension of the regulated system may be unknown. However, the relative degree of the regulated output is assumed to be known. Given a smooth reference trajectory, the problem is to design a controller that forces the system measurement to track it with bounded errors. The classical approach requires a state observer. Finding a good observer for an uncertain nonlinear system is not an obvious task. We argue that it is sufficient to build an observer for the output tracking error. Ultimate boundedness of the error signals is shown through Lyapunov's direct method. The theoretical results are illustrated in the design of a controller for a fourth-order nonlinear system of relative degree two and a high-bandwidth attitude command system for a model R-50 helicopter.

Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Utilization of Statistical Data and Domain Knowledge in Complex Cases.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin; Yao, Quanying

2018-05-01

The dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is a newly presented framework for uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning. It has been successfully applied to online fault diagnoses of large, complex industrial systems, and decease diagnoses. This paper extends the DUCG to model more complex cases than what could be previously modeled, e.g., the case in which statistical data are in different groups with or without overlap, and some domain knowledge and actions (new variables with uncertain causalities) are introduced. In other words, this paper proposes to use -mode, -mode, and -mode of the DUCG to model such complex cases and then transform them into either the standard -mode or the standard -mode. In the former situation, if no directed cyclic graph is involved, the transformed result is simply a Bayesian network (BN), and existing inference methods for BNs can be applied. In the latter situation, an inference method based on the DUCG is proposed. Examples are provided to illustrate the methodology.

Uncertain dynamical systems: A differential game approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutman, S.

1976-01-01

A class of dynamical systems in a conflict situation is formulated and discussed, and the formulation is applied to the study of an important class of systems in the presence of uncertainty. The uncertainty is deterministic and the only assumption is that its value belongs to a known compact set. Asymptotic stability is fully discussed with application to variable structure and model reference control systems.

A set-theoretic model reference adaptive control architecture for disturbance rejection and uncertainty suppression with strict performance guarantees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arabi, Ehsan; Gruenwald, Benjamin C.; Yucelen, Tansel; Nguyen, Nhan T.

2018-05-01

Research in adaptive control algorithms for safety-critical applications is primarily motivated by the fact that these algorithms have the capability to suppress the effects of adverse conditions resulting from exogenous disturbances, imperfect dynamical system modelling, degraded modes of operation, and changes in system dynamics. Although government and industry agree on the potential of these algorithms in providing safety and reducing vehicle development costs, a major issue is the inability to achieve a-priori, user-defined performance guarantees with adaptive control algorithms. In this paper, a new model reference adaptive control architecture for uncertain dynamical systems is presented to address disturbance rejection and uncertainty suppression. The proposed framework is predicated on a set-theoretic adaptive controller construction using generalised restricted potential functions.The key feature of this framework allows the system error bound between the state of an uncertain dynamical system and the state of a reference model, which captures a desired closed-loop system performance, to be less than a-priori, user-defined worst-case performance bound, and hence, it has the capability to enforce strict performance guarantees. Examples are provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed set-theoretic model reference adaptive control architecture.

Cooperatively surrounding control for multiple Euler-Lagrange systems subjected to uncertain dynamics and input constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang-Ming; Lv, Yue-Yong; Li, Chuan-Jiang; Ma, Guang-Fu

2016-12-01

In this paper, we investigate cooperatively surrounding control (CSC) of multi-agent systems modeled by Euler-Lagrange (EL) equations under a directed graph. With the consideration of the uncertain dynamics in an EL system, a backstepping CSC algorithm combined with neural-networks is proposed first such that the agents can move cooperatively to surround the stationary target. Then, a command filtered backstepping CSC algorithm is further proposed to deal with the constraints on control input and the absence of neighbors’ velocity information. Numerical examples of eight satellites surrounding one space target illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB720000) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61304005 and 61403103).

Reduced-order dynamic output feedback control of uncertain discrete-time Markov jump linear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morais, Cecília F.; Braga, Márcio F.; Oliveira, Ricardo C. L. F.; Peres, Pedro L. D.

2017-11-01

This paper deals with the problem of designing reduced-order robust dynamic output feedback controllers for discrete-time Markov jump linear systems (MJLS) with polytopic state space matrices and uncertain transition probabilities. Starting from a full order, mode-dependent and polynomially parameter-dependent dynamic output feedback controller, sufficient linear matrix inequality based conditions are provided for the existence of a robust reduced-order dynamic output feedback stabilising controller with complete, partial or none mode dependency assuring an upper bound to the ? or the ? norm of the closed-loop system. The main advantage of the proposed method when compared to the existing approaches is the fact that the dynamic controllers are exclusively expressed in terms of the decision variables of the problem. In other words, the matrices that define the controller realisation do not depend explicitly on the state space matrices associated with the modes of the MJLS. As a consequence, the method is specially suitable to handle order reduction or cluster availability constraints in the context of ? or ? dynamic output feedback control of discrete-time MJLS. Additionally, as illustrated by means of numerical examples, the proposed approach can provide less conservative results than other conditions in the literature.

Adaptive fuzzy predictive sliding control of uncertain nonlinear systems with bound-known input delay.

PubMed

Khazaee, Mostafa; Markazi, Amir H D; Omidi, Ehsan

2015-11-01

In this paper, a new Adaptive Fuzzy Predictive Sliding Mode Control (AFP-SMC) is presented for nonlinear systems with uncertain dynamics and unknown input delay. The control unit consists of a fuzzy inference system to approximate the ideal linearization control, together with a switching strategy to compensate for the estimation errors. Also, an adaptive fuzzy predictor is used to estimate the future values of the system states to compensate for the time delay. The adaptation laws are used to tune the controller and predictor parameters, which guarantee the stability based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional. To evaluate the method effectiveness, the simulation and experiment on an overhead crane system are presented. According to the obtained results, AFP-SMC can effectively control the uncertain nonlinear systems, subject to input delays of known bound. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Boundary Control of Linear Uncertain 1-D Parabolic PDE Using Approximate Dynamic Programming.

PubMed

Talaei, Behzad; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Singler, John

2018-04-01

This paper develops a near optimal boundary control method for distributed parameter systems governed by uncertain linear 1-D parabolic partial differential equations (PDE) by using approximate dynamic programming. A quadratic surface integral is proposed to express the optimal cost functional for the infinite-dimensional state space. Accordingly, the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is formulated in the infinite-dimensional domain without using any model reduction. Subsequently, a neural network identifier is developed to estimate the unknown spatially varying coefficient in PDE dynamics. Novel tuning law is proposed to guarantee the boundedness of identifier approximation error in the PDE domain. A radial basis network (RBN) is subsequently proposed to generate an approximate solution for the optimal surface kernel function online. The tuning law for near optimal RBN weights is created, such that the HJB equation error is minimized while the dynamics are identified and closed-loop system remains stable. Ultimate boundedness (UB) of the closed-loop system is verified by using the Lyapunov theory. The performance of the proposed controller is successfully confirmed by simulation on an unstable diffusion-reaction process.

Uncertain dynamic analysis for rigid-flexible mechanisms with random geometry and material properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jinglai; Luo, Zhen; Zhang, Nong; Zhang, Yunqing; Walker, Paul D.

2017-02-01

This paper proposes an uncertain modelling and computational method to analyze dynamic responses of rigid-flexible multibody systems (or mechanisms) with random geometry and material properties. Firstly, the deterministic model for the rigid-flexible multibody system is built with the absolute node coordinate formula (ANCF), in which the flexible parts are modeled by using ANCF elements, while the rigid parts are described by ANCF reference nodes (ANCF-RNs). Secondly, uncertainty for the geometry of rigid parts is expressed as uniform random variables, while the uncertainty for the material properties of flexible parts is modeled as a continuous random field, which is further discretized to Gaussian random variables using a series expansion method. Finally, a non-intrusive numerical method is developed to solve the dynamic equations of systems involving both types of random variables, which systematically integrates the deterministic generalized-α solver with Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) and Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion. The benchmark slider-crank mechanism is used as a numerical example to demonstrate the characteristics of the proposed method.

Final Report. Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Coles, T.; Spantini, A.

2013-09-30

The project was a collaborative effort among MIT, Sandia National Laboratories (local PI Dr. Habib Najm), the University of Southern California (local PI Prof. Roger Ghanem), and The Johns Hopkins University (local PI Prof. Omar Knio, now at Duke University). Our focus was the analysis and reduction of large-scale dynamical systems emerging from networks of interacting components. Such networks underlie myriad natural and engineered systems. Examples important to DOE include chemical models of energy conversion processes, and elements of national infrastructure—e.g., electric power grids. Time scales in chemical systems span orders of magnitude, while infrastructure networks feature both local andmore » long-distance connectivity, with associated clusters of time scales. These systems also blend continuous and discrete behavior; examples include saturation phenomena in surface chemistry and catalysis, and switching in electrical networks. Reducing size and stiffness is essential to tractable and predictive simulation of these systems. Computational singular perturbation (CSP) has been effectively used to identify and decouple dynamics at disparate time scales in chemical systems, allowing reduction of model complexity and stiffness. In realistic settings, however, model reduction must contend with uncertainties, which are often greatest in large-scale systems most in need of reduction. Uncertainty is not limited to parameters; one must also address structural uncertainties—e.g., whether a link is present in a network—and the impact of random perturbations, e.g., fluctuating loads or sources. Research under this project developed new methods for the analysis and reduction of complex multiscale networks under uncertainty, by combining computational singular perturbation (CSP) with probabilistic uncertainty quantification. CSP yields asymptotic approximations of reduceddimensionality “slow manifolds” on which a multiscale dynamical system evolves. Introducing uncertainty in this context raised fundamentally new issues, e.g., how is the topology of slow manifolds transformed by parametric uncertainty? How to construct dynamical models on these uncertain manifolds? To address these questions, we used stochastic spectral polynomial chaos (PC) methods to reformulate uncertain network models and analyzed them using CSP in probabilistic terms. Finding uncertain manifolds involved the solution of stochastic eigenvalue problems, facilitated by projection onto PC bases. These problems motivated us to explore the spectral properties stochastic Galerkin systems. We also introduced novel methods for rank-reduction in stochastic eigensystems—transformations of a uncertain dynamical system that lead to lower storage and solution complexity. These technical accomplishments are detailed below. This report focuses on the MIT portion of the joint project.« less

An interval precise integration method for transient unbalance response analysis of rotor system with uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Chao; Ren, Xingmin; Yang, Yongfeng; Xia, Yebao; Deng, Wangqun

2018-07-01

A non-intrusive interval precise integration method (IPIM) is proposed in this paper to analyze the transient unbalance response of uncertain rotor systems. The transfer matrix method (TMM) is used to derive the deterministic equations of motion of a hollow-shaft overhung rotor. The uncertain transient dynamic problem is solved by combing the Chebyshev approximation theory with the modified precise integration method (PIM). Transient response bounds are calculated by interval arithmetic of the expansion coefficients. Theoretical error analysis of the proposed method is provided briefly, and its accuracy is further validated by comparing with the scanning method in simulations. Numerical results show that the IPIM can keep good accuracy in vibration prediction of the start-up transient process. Furthermore, the proposed method can also provide theoretical guidance to other transient dynamic mechanical systems with uncertainties.

A Survey of Probabilistic Methods for Dynamical Systems with Uncertain Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-01

J., "An Approach to the Theoretical Background of Statistical Energy Analysis Applied to Structural Vibration," Journ. Acoust. Soc. Amer., Vol. 69...1973, Sect. 8.3. 80. Lyon, R.H., " Statistical Energy Analysis of Dynamical Systems," M.I.T. Press, 1975. e) Late References added in Proofreading !! 81...Dowell, E.H., and Kubota, Y., "Asymptotic Modal Analysis and ’~ y C-" -165- Statistical Energy Analysis of Dynamical Systems," Journ. Appi. - Mech

Robot Path Planning in Uncertain Environments: A Language Measure-theoretic Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

Paper DS-14-1028 to appear in the Special Issue on Stochastic Models, Control and Algorithms in Robotics, ASME Journal of Dynamic Systems...Measurement and Control Robot Path Planning in Uncertain Environments: A Language Measure-theoretic Approach⋆ Devesh K. Jha† Yue Li† Thomas A. Wettergren‡† Asok...algorithm, called ν⋆, that was formulated in the framework of probabilistic finite state automata (PFSA) and language measure from a control -theoretic

Adaptive fixed-time control for cluster synchronisation of coupled complex networks with uncertain disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Shengqin; Lu, Xiaobo; Cai, Guoliang; Cai, Shuiming

2017-12-01

This paper focuses on the cluster synchronisation problem of coupled complex networks with uncertain disturbances under an adaptive fixed-time control strategy. To begin with, complex dynamical networks with community structure which are subject to uncertain disturbances are taken into account. Then, a novel adaptive control strategy combined with fixed-time techniques is proposed to guarantee the nodes in the communities to desired states in a settling time. In addition, the stability of complex error systems is theoretically proved based on Lyapunov stability theorem. At last, two examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive fixed-time control.

Systems and Methods for Derivative-Free Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calise, Anthony J. (Inventor); Yucelen, Tansel (Inventor); Kim, Kilsoo (Inventor)

2015-01-01

An adaptive control system is disclosed. The control system can control uncertain dynamic systems. The control system can employ one or more derivative-free adaptive control architectures. The control system can further employ one or more derivative-free weight update laws. The derivative-free weight update laws can comprise a time-varying estimate of an ideal vector of weights. The control system of the present invention can therefore quickly stabilize systems that undergo sudden changes in dynamics, caused by, for example, sudden changes in weight. Embodiments of the present invention can also provide a less complex control system than existing adaptive control systems. The control system can control aircraft and other dynamic systems, such as, for example, those with non-minimum phase dynamics.

Design of sliding-mode observer for a class of uncertain neutral stochastic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhen; Zhao, Lin; Zhu, Quanmin; Gao, Cunchen

2017-05-01

The problem of robust ? control for a class of uncertain neutral stochastic systems (NSS) is investigated by utilising the sliding-mode observer (SMO) technique. This paper presents a novel observer and integral-type sliding-surface design, based on which a new sufficient condition guaranteeing the resultant sliding-mode dynamics (SMDs) to be mean-square exponentially stable with a prescribed level of ? performance is derived. Then, an adaptive reaching motion controller is synthesised to lead the system to the predesigned sliding surface in finite-time almost surely. Finally, two illustrative examples are exhibited to verify the validity and superiority of the developed scheme.

Characterizing source-sink dynamics with genetic parentage assignments

Treesearch

M. Zachariah Peery; Steven R. Beissinger; Roger F. House; Martine Berube; Laurie A. Hall; Anna Sellas; Per J. Palsboll

2008-01-01

Source-sink dynamics have been suggested to characterize the population structure of many species, but the prevalence of source-sink systems in nature is uncertain because of inherent challenges in estimating migration rates among populations. Migration rates are often difficult to estimate directly with demographic methods, and indirect genetic methods are subject to...

Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply.

PubMed

Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

2018-03-31

As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems.

Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply

PubMed Central

Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

2018-01-01

As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems. PMID:29614749

Effective techniques for the identification and accommodation of disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, C. D.

1989-01-01

The successful control of dynamic systems such as space stations, or launch vehicles, requires a controller design methodology that acknowledges and addresses the disruptive effects caused by external and internal disturbances that inevitably act on such systems. These disturbances, technically defined as uncontrollable inputs, typically vary with time in an uncertain manner and usually cannot be directly measured in real time. A relatively new non-statistical technique for modeling, and (on-line) identification, of those complex uncertain disturbances that are not as erratic and capricious as random noise is described. This technique applies to multi-input cases and to many of the practical disturbances associated with the control of space stations, or launch vehicles. Then, a collection of smart controller design techniques that allow controlled dynamic systems, with possible multi-input controls, to accommodate (cope with) such disturbances with extraordinary effectiveness are associated. These new smart controllers are designed by non-statistical techniques and typically turn out to be unconventional forms of dynamic linear controllers (compensators) with constant coefficients. The simplicity and reliability of linear, constant coefficient controllers is well-known in the aerospace field.

Approximate N-Player Nonzero-Sum Game Solution for an Uncertain Continuous Nonlinear System.

PubMed

Johnson, Marcus; Kamalapurkar, Rushikesh; Bhasin, Shubhendu; Dixon, Warren E

2015-08-01

An approximate online equilibrium solution is developed for an N -player nonzero-sum game subject to continuous-time nonlinear unknown dynamics and an infinite horizon quadratic cost. A novel actor-critic-identifier structure is used, wherein a robust dynamic neural network is used to asymptotically identify the uncertain system with additive disturbances, and a set of critic and actor NNs are used to approximate the value functions and equilibrium policies, respectively. The weight update laws for the actor neural networks (NNs) are generated using a gradient-descent method, and the critic NNs are generated by least square regression, which are both based on the modified Bellman error that is independent of the system dynamics. A Lyapunov-based stability analysis shows that uniformly ultimately bounded tracking is achieved, and a convergence analysis demonstrates that the approximate control policies converge to a neighborhood of the optimal solutions. The actor, critic, and identifier structures are implemented in real time continuously and simultaneously. Simulations on two and three player games illustrate the performance of the developed method.

Adaptive Approximation-Based Regulation Control for a Class of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Without Feedback Linearizability.

PubMed

Wang, Ning; Sun, Jing-Chao; Han, Min; Zheng, Zhongjiu; Er, Meng Joo

2017-09-06

In this paper, for a general class of uncertain nonlinear (cascade) systems, including unknown dynamics, which are not feedback linearizable and cannot be solved by existing approaches, an innovative adaptive approximation-based regulation control (AARC) scheme is developed. Within the framework of adding a power integrator (API), by deriving adaptive laws for output weights and prediction error compensation pertaining to single-hidden-layer feedforward network (SLFN) from the Lyapunov synthesis, a series of SLFN-based approximators are explicitly constructed to exactly dominate completely unknown dynamics. By the virtue of significant advancements on the API technique, an adaptive API methodology is eventually established in combination with SLFN-based adaptive approximators, and it contributes to a recursive mechanism for the AARC scheme. As a consequence, the output regulation error can asymptotically converge to the origin, and all other signals of the closed-loop system are uniformly ultimately bounded. Simulation studies and comprehensive comparisons with backstepping- and API-based approaches demonstrate that the proposed AARC scheme achieves remarkable performance and superiority in dealing with unknown dynamics.

Robust Stability and Control of Multi-Body Ground Vehicles with Uncertain Dynamics and Failures

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

and N. Zhang, 2008. “Robust stability control of vehicle rollover subject to actuator time delay”. Proc. IMechE Part I: J. of systems and control ...Dynamic Systems and Control Conference, Boston, MA, Sept 2010 R.K. Yedavalli,”Robust Stability of Linear Interval Parameter Matrix Family Problem...for control coupled output regulation for a class of systems is presented. In section 2.1.7, the control design algorithm developed in section

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

PubMed

Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

2016-12-28

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

DOE PAGES

Navarro Jimenez, M.; Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.

2016-12-23

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes thatmore » the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. Here, a sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.« less

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro Jimenez, M.; Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.

2016-12-01

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Transient Stability Assessment of Power Systems With Uncertain Renewable Generation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Villegas Pico, Hugo Nestor; Aliprantis, Dionysios C.; Lin, Xiaojun

2017-08-09

The transient stability of a power system depends heavily on its operational state at the moment of a fault. In systems where the penetration of renewable generation is significant, the dispatch of the conventional fleet of synchronous generators is uncertain at the time of dynamic security analysis. Hence, the assessment of transient stability requires the solution of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations with unknown initial conditions and inputs. To this end, we set forth a computational framework that relies on Taylor polynomials, where variables are associated with the level of renewable generation. This paper describes the details ofmore » the method and illustrates its application on a nine-bus test system.« less

A game theoretic controller for a linear time-invariant system with parameter uncertainty and its application to the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhee, Ihnseok; Speyer, Jason L.

1990-01-01

A game theoretic controller is developed for a linear time-invariant system with parameter uncertainties in system and input matrices. The input-output decomposition modeling for the plant uncertainty is adopted. The uncertain dynamic system is represented as an internal feedback loop in which the system is assumed forced by fictitious disturbance caused by the parameter uncertainty. By considering the input and the fictitious disturbance as two noncooperative players, a differential game problem is constructed. It is shown that the resulting time invariant controller stabilizes the uncertain system for a prescribed uncertainty bound. This game theoretic controller is applied to the momentum management and attitude control of the Space Station in the presence of uncertainties in the moments of inertia. Inclusion of the external disturbance torque to the design procedure results in a dynamical feedback controller which consists of conventional PID control and cyclic disturbance rejection filter. It is shown that the game theoretic design, comparing to the LQR design or pole placement design, improves the stability robustness with respect to inertia variations.

Fuzzy differential inclusions in atmospheric and medical cybernetics.

PubMed

Majumdar, Kausik Kumar; Majumder, Dwijesh Dutta

2004-04-01

Uncertainty management in dynamical systems is receiving attention in artificial intelligence, particularly in the fields of qualitative and model based reasoning. Fuzzy dynamical systems occupy a very important position in the class of uncertain systems. It is well established that the fuzzy dynamical systems represented by a set of fuzzy differential inclusions (FDI) are very convenient tools for modeling and simulation of various uncertain systems. In this paper, we discuss about the mathematical modeling of two very complex natural phenomena by means of FDIs. One of them belongs to the atmospheric cybernetics (the term has been used in a broad sense) of the genesis of a cyclonic storm (cyclogenesis), and the other belongs to the bio-medical cybernetics of the evolution of tumor in a human body. Since a discussion of the former already appears in a previous paper by the first author, here, we present very briefly a theoretical formalism of cyclone formation. On the other hand, we treat the latter system more elaborately. We solve the FDIs with the help of an algorithm developed in this paper to numerically simulate the mathematical models. From the simulation results thus obtained, we have drawn a number of interesting conclusions, which have been verified, and this vindicates the validity of our models.

Adaptive optimization as a design and management methodology for coal-mining enterprise in uncertain and volatile market environment - the conceptual framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhalchenko, V. V.; Rubanik, Yu T.

2016-10-01

The work is devoted to the problem of cost-effective adaptation of coal mines to the volatile and uncertain market conditions. Conceptually it can be achieved through alignment of the dynamic characteristics of the coal mining system and power spectrum of market demand for coal product. In practical terms, this ensures the viability and competitiveness of coal mines. Transformation of dynamic characteristics is to be done by changing the structure of production system as well as corporate, logistics and management processes. The proposed methods and algorithms of control are aimed at the development of the theoretical foundations of adaptive optimization as basic methodology for coal mine enterprise management in conditions of high variability and uncertainty of economic and natural environment. Implementation of the proposed methodology requires a revision of the basic principles of open coal mining enterprises design.

Uncertainty Quantification in Aeroelasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beran, Philip; Stanford, Bret; Schrock, Christopher

2017-01-01

Physical interactions between a fluid and structure, potentially manifested as self-sustained or divergent oscillations, can be sensitive to many parameters whose values are uncertain. Of interest here are aircraft aeroelastic interactions, which must be accounted for in aircraft certification and design. Deterministic prediction of these aeroelastic behaviors can be difficult owing to physical and computational complexity. New challenges are introduced when physical parameters and elements of the modeling process are uncertain. By viewing aeroelasticity through a nondeterministic prism, where key quantities are assumed stochastic, one may gain insights into how to reduce system uncertainty, increase system robustness, and maintain aeroelastic safety. This article reviews uncertainty quantification in aeroelasticity using traditional analytical techniques not reliant on computational fluid dynamics; compares and contrasts this work with emerging methods based on computational fluid dynamics, which target richer physics; and reviews the state of the art in aeroelastic optimization under uncertainty. Barriers to continued progress, for example, the so-called curse of dimensionality, are discussed.

Robust adaptive fault-tolerant control for leader-follower flocking of uncertain multi-agent systems with actuator failure.

PubMed

Yazdani, Sahar; Haeri, Mohammad

2017-11-01

In this work, we study the flocking problem of multi-agent systems with uncertain dynamics subject to actuator failure and external disturbances. By considering some standard assumptions, we propose a robust adaptive fault tolerant protocol for compensating of the actuator bias fault, the partial loss of actuator effectiveness fault, the model uncertainties, and external disturbances. Under the designed protocol, velocity convergence of agents to that of virtual leader is guaranteed while the connectivity preservation of network and collision avoidance among agents are ensured as well. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model based robust dissipative control for uncertain flexible spacecraft with saturated time-delay input.

PubMed

Xu, Shidong; Sun, Guanghui; Sun, Weichao

2017-01-01

In this paper, the problem of robust dissipative control is investigated for uncertain flexible spacecraft based on Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model with saturated time-delay input. Different from most existing strategies, T-S fuzzy approximation approach is used to model the nonlinear dynamics of flexible spacecraft. Simultaneously, the physical constraints of system, like input delay, input saturation, and parameter uncertainties, are also taken care of in the fuzzy model. By employing Lyapunov-Krasovskii method and convex optimization technique, a novel robust controller is proposed to implement rest-to-rest attitude maneuver for flexible spacecraft, and the guaranteed dissipative performance enables the uncertain closed-loop system to reject the influence of elastic vibrations and external disturbances. Finally, an illustrative design example integrated with simulation results are provided to confirm the applicability and merits of the developed control strategy. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain switched network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Li, Gang; Sun, Ao; Yan, Zhe; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan

2017-06-01

We propose a new technology for synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology. In synchronization process, the connection of dynamic network can vary at all time according to different demands. Especially, we construct the Lyapunov function of network through designing a special semi-positive definite function, and the synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology can be realized perfectly, which effectively avoids the complicated calculation for solving the second largest eignvalue of the coupling matrix of the dynamic network in order to obtain the network synchronization condition. At the same time, the uncertain parameters in dynamic equations belonging to network nodes can also be identified accurately via designing the identification laws of uncertain parameters. In addition, there are not any limitations for the synchronization target of network in the new technology, in other words, the target can either be a state variable signal of an arbitrary node within the network or an exterior signal.

High-order sliding-mode control for blood glucose regulation in the presence of uncertain dynamics.

PubMed

Hernández, Ana Gabriela Gallardo; Fridman, Leonid; Leder, Ron; Andrade, Sergio Islas; Monsalve, Cristina Revilla; Shtessel, Yuri; Levant, Arie

2011-01-01

The success of blood glucose automatic regulation depends on the robustness of the control algorithm used. It is a difficult task to perform due to the complexity of the glucose-insulin regulation system. The variety of model existing reflects the great amount of phenomena involved in the process, and the inter-patient variability of the parameters represent another challenge. In this research a High-Order Sliding-Mode Control is proposed. It is applied to two well known models, Bergman Minimal Model, and Sorensen Model, to test its robustness with respect to uncertain dynamics, and patients' parameter variability. The controller designed based on the simulations is tested with the specific Bergman Minimal Model of a diabetic patient whose parameters were identified from an in vivo assay. To minimize the insulin infusion rate, and avoid the hypoglycemia risk, the glucose target is a dynamical profile.

A global parallel model based design of experiments method to minimize model output uncertainty.

PubMed

Bazil, Jason N; Buzzard, Gregory T; Rundell, Ann E

2012-03-01

Model-based experiment design specifies the data to be collected that will most effectively characterize the biological system under study. Existing model-based design of experiment algorithms have primarily relied on Fisher Information Matrix-based methods to choose the best experiment in a sequential manner. However, these are largely local methods that require an initial estimate of the parameter values, which are often highly uncertain, particularly when data is limited. In this paper, we provide an approach to specify an informative sequence of multiple design points (parallel design) that will constrain the dynamical uncertainty of the biological system responses to within experimentally detectable limits as specified by the estimated experimental noise. The method is based upon computationally efficient sparse grids and requires only a bounded uncertain parameter space; it does not rely upon initial parameter estimates. The design sequence emerges through the use of scenario trees with experimental design points chosen to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted dynamics of the measurable responses of the system. The algorithm was illustrated herein using a T cell activation model for three problems that ranged in dimension from 2D to 19D. The results demonstrate that it is possible to extract useful information from a mathematical model where traditional model-based design of experiments approaches most certainly fail. The experiments designed via this method fully constrain the model output dynamics to within experimentally resolvable limits. The method is effective for highly uncertain biological systems characterized by deterministic mathematical models with limited data sets. Also, it is highly modular and can be modified to include a variety of methodologies such as input design and model discrimination.

On the adaptive sliding mode controller for a hyperchaotic fractional-order financial system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajipour, Ahamad; Hajipour, Mojtaba; Baleanu, Dumitru

2018-05-01

This manuscript mainly focuses on the construction, dynamic analysis and control of a new fractional-order financial system. The basic dynamical behaviors of the proposed system are studied such as the equilibrium points and their stability, Lyapunov exponents, bifurcation diagrams, phase portraits of state variables and the intervals of system parameters. It is shown that the system exhibits hyperchaotic behavior for a number of system parameters and fractional-order values. To stabilize the proposed hyperchaotic fractional system with uncertain dynamics and disturbances, an efficient adaptive sliding mode controller technique is developed. Using the proposed technique, two hyperchaotic fractional-order financial systems are also synchronized. Numerical simulations are presented to verify the successful performance of the designed controllers.

Distributed control systems with incomplete and uncertain information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingpeng

Scientific and engineering advances in wireless communication, sensors, propulsion, and other areas are rapidly making it possible to develop unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) with sophisticated capabilities. UAVs have come to the forefront as tools for airborne reconnaissance to search for, detect, and destroy enemy targets in relatively complex environments. They potentially reduce risk to human life, are cost effective, and are superior to manned aircraft for certain types of missions. It is desirable for UAVs to have a high level of intelligent autonomy to carry out mission tasks with little external supervision and control. This raises important issues involving tradeoffs between centralized control and the associated potential to optimize mission plans, and decentralized control with great robustness and the potential to adapt to changing conditions. UAV capabilities have been extended several ways through armament (e.g., Hellfire missiles on Predator UAVs), increased endurance and altitude (e.g., Global Hawk), and greater autonomy. Some known barriers to full-scale implementation of UAVs are increased communication and control requirements as well as increased platform and system complexity. One of the key problems is how UAV systems can handle incomplete and uncertain information in dynamic environments. Especially when the system is composed of heterogeneous and distributed UAVs, the overall system complexity is increased under such conditions. Presented through the use of published papers, this dissertation lays the groundwork for the study of methodologies for handling incomplete and uncertain information for distributed control systems. An agent-based simulation framework is built to investigate mathematical approaches (optimization) and emergent intelligence approaches. The first paper provides a mathematical approach for systems of UAVs to handle incomplete and uncertain information. The second paper describes an emergent intelligence approach for UAVs, again in handling incomplete and uncertain information. The third paper combines mathematical and emergent intelligence approaches.

NASA Instep/mdmsc Jitter Suppression Experiment (JITTER)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Edward V.

1992-01-01

The objectives are the following: (1) to develop and demonstrate in-space performance of both passive and active damping systems for suppression of micro-amplitude vibration on an actual application structure and operate despite uncertain dynamics and uncertain disturbance characteristics; and (2) to correlate ground and in-space performance - the performance metric is vibration attenuation. The goals are to achieve vibration suppression equivalent to 5 percent passive damping in selected models and 15 percent active damping in selected modes. Various aspects of this experiment are presented in viewgraph form.

Nonlinear control of linear parameter varying systems with applications to hypersonic vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, Zachary Donald

The focus of this dissertation is to design a controller for linear parameter varying (LPV) systems, apply it specifically to air-breathing hypersonic vehicles, and examine the interplay between control performance and the structural dynamics design. Specifically a Lyapunov-based continuous robust controller is developed that yields exponential tracking of a reference model, despite the presence of bounded, nonvanishing disturbances. The hypersonic vehicle has time varying parameters, specifically temperature profiles, and its dynamics can be reduced to an LPV system with additive disturbances. Since the HSV can be modeled as an LPV system the proposed control design is directly applicable. The control performance is directly examined through simulations. A wide variety of applications exist that can be effectively modeled as LPV systems. In particular, flight systems have historically been modeled as LPV systems and associated control tools have been applied such as gain-scheduling, linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), linear fractional transformations (LFT), and mu-types. However, as the type of flight environments and trajectories become more demanding, the traditional LPV controllers may no longer be sufficient. In particular, hypersonic flight vehicles (HSVs) present an inherently difficult problem because of the nonlinear aerothermoelastic coupling effects in the dynamics. HSV flight conditions produce temperature variations that can alter both the structural dynamics and flight dynamics. Starting with the full nonlinear dynamics, the aerothermoelastic effects are modeled by a temperature dependent, parameter varying state-space representation with added disturbances. The model includes an uncertain parameter varying state matrix, an uncertain parameter varying non-square (column deficient) input matrix, and an additive bounded disturbance. In this dissertation, a robust dynamic controller is formulated for a uncertain and disturbed LPV system. The developed controller is then applied to a HSV model, and a Lyapunov analysis is used to prove global exponential reference model tracking in the presence of uncertainty in the state and input matrices and exogenous disturbances. Simulations with a spectrum of gains and temperature profiles on the full nonlinear dynamic model of the HSV is used to illustrate the performance and robustness of the developed controller. In addition, this work considers how the performance of the developed controller varies over a wide variety of control gains and temperature profiles and are optimized with respect to different performance metrics. Specifically, various temperature profile models and related nonlinear temperature dependent disturbances are used to characterize the relative control performance and effort for each model. Examining such metrics as a function of temperature provides a potential inroad to examine the interplay between structural/thermal protection design and control development and has application for future HSV design and control implementation.

Output Feedback-Based Boundary Control of Uncertain Coupled Semilinear Parabolic PDE Using Neurodynamic Programming.

PubMed

Talaei, Behzad; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Singler, John

2018-04-01

In this paper, neurodynamic programming-based output feedback boundary control of distributed parameter systems governed by uncertain coupled semilinear parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under Neumann or Dirichlet boundary control conditions is introduced. First, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is formulated in the original PDE domain and the optimal control policy is derived using the value functional as the solution of the HJB equation. Subsequently, a novel observer is developed to estimate the system states given the uncertain nonlinearity in PDE dynamics and measured outputs. Consequently, the suboptimal boundary control policy is obtained by forward-in-time estimation of the value functional using a neural network (NN)-based online approximator and estimated state vector obtained from the NN observer. Novel adaptive tuning laws in continuous time are proposed for learning the value functional online to satisfy the HJB equation along system trajectories while ensuring the closed-loop stability. Local uniformly ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system is verified by using Lyapunov theory. The performance of the proposed controller is verified via simulation on an unstable coupled diffusion reaction process.

A new design of robust H∞ sliding mode control for uncertain stochastic T-S fuzzy time-delay systems.

PubMed

Gao, Qing; Feng, Gang; Xi, Zhiyu; Wang, Yong; Qiu, Jianbin

2014-09-01

In this paper, a novel dynamic sliding mode control scheme is proposed for a class of uncertain stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems represented by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models. The key advantage of the proposed scheme is that two very restrictive assumptions in most existing sliding mode control approaches for stochastic fuzzy systems have been removed. It is shown that the closed-loop control system trajectories can be driven onto the sliding surface in finite time almost certainly. It is also shown that the stochastic stability of the resulting sliding motion can be guaranteed in terms of linear matrix inequalities; moreover, the sliding-mode controller can be obtained simultaneously. Simulation results illustrating the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approaches are also provided.

Dynamic Analysis and Adaptive Sliding Mode Controller for a Chaotic Fractional Incommensurate Order Financial System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajipour, Ahmad; Tavakoli, Hamidreza

2017-12-01

In this study, the dynamic behavior and chaos control of a chaotic fractional incommensurate-order financial system are investigated. Using well-known tools of nonlinear theory, i.e. Lyapunov exponents, phase diagrams and bifurcation diagrams, we observe some interesting phenomena, e.g. antimonotonicity, crisis phenomena and route to chaos through a period doubling sequence. Adopting largest Lyapunov exponent criteria, we find that the system yields chaos at the lowest order of 2.15. Next, in order to globally stabilize the chaotic fractional incommensurate order financial system with uncertain dynamics, an adaptive fractional sliding mode controller is designed. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

An integrated and dynamic optimisation model for the multi-level emergency logistics network in anti-bioterrorism system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ming; Zhao, Lindu

2012-08-01

Demand for emergency resources is usually uncertain and varies quickly in anti-bioterrorism system. Besides, emergency resources which had been allocated to the epidemic areas in the early rescue cycle will affect the demand later. In this article, an integrated and dynamic optimisation model with time-varying demand based on the epidemic diffusion rule is constructed. The heuristic algorithm coupled with the MATLAB mathematical programming solver is adopted to solve the optimisation model. In what follows, the application of the optimisation model as well as a short sensitivity analysis of the key parameters in the time-varying demand forecast model is presented. The results show that both the model and the solution algorithm are useful in practice, and both objectives of inventory level and emergency rescue cost can be controlled effectively. Thus, it can provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with emergency rescue problem with uncertain demand, and offers an excellent reference when issues pertain to bioterrorism.

Adaptive control of nonlinear uncertain active suspension systems with prescribed performance.

PubMed

Huang, Yingbo; Na, Jing; Wu, Xing; Liu, Xiaoqin; Guo, Yu

2015-01-01

This paper proposes adaptive control designs for vehicle active suspension systems with unknown nonlinear dynamics (e.g., nonlinear spring and piece-wise linear damper dynamics). An adaptive control is first proposed to stabilize the vertical vehicle displacement and thus to improve the ride comfort and to guarantee other suspension requirements (e.g., road holding and suspension space limitation) concerning the vehicle safety and mechanical constraints. An augmented neural network is developed to online compensate for the unknown nonlinearities, and a novel adaptive law is developed to estimate both NN weights and uncertain model parameters (e.g., sprung mass), where the parameter estimation error is used as a leakage term superimposed on the classical adaptations. To further improve the control performance and simplify the parameter tuning, a prescribed performance function (PPF) characterizing the error convergence rate, maximum overshoot and steady-state error is used to propose another adaptive control. The stability for the closed-loop system is proved and particular performance requirements are analyzed. Simulations are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control schemes. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust passive control for a class of uncertain neutral systems based on sliding mode observer.

PubMed

Liu, Zhen; Zhao, Lin; Kao, Yonggui; Gao, Cunchen

2017-01-01

The passivity-based sliding mode control (SMC) problem for a class of uncertain neutral systems with unmeasured states is investigated. Firstly, a particular non-fragile state observer is designed to generate the estimations of the system states, based upon which a novel integral-type sliding surface function is established for the control process. Secondly, a new sufficient condition for robust asymptotic stability and passivity of the resultant sliding mode dynamics (SMDs) is obtained in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Thirdly, the finite-time reachability of the predesigned sliding surface is ensured by resorting to a novel adaptive SMC law. Finally, the validity and superiority of the scheme are justified via several examples. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive non-predictor control of lower triangular uncertain nonlinear systems with an unknown time-varying delay in the input

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, Min-Sung; Choi, Ho-Lim

2018-01-01

In this paper, we consider a control problem for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems in which there exists an unknown time-varying delay in the input and lower triangular nonlinearities. Usually, in the existing results, input delays have been coupled with feedforward (or upper triangular) nonlinearities; in other words, the combination of lower triangular nonlinearities and input delay has been rare. Motivated by the existing controller for input-delayed chain of integrators with nonlinearity, we show that the control of input-delayed nonlinear systems with two particular types of lower triangular nonlinearities can be done. As a control solution, we propose a newly designed feedback controller whose main features are its dynamic gain and non-predictor approach. Three examples are given for illustration.

Optimal Regulation of Structural Systems with Uncertain Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-02-02

been addressed, in part, by Statistical Energy Analysis . Moti- vated by a concern with high frequency vibration and acoustical- structural...Parameter Systems," AFOSR-TR-79-0753 (May, 1979). 25. R. H. Lyon, Statistical Energy Analysis of Dynamical Systems: Theory and Applications, (M.I.T...Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1975). 26. E. E. Ungar, " Statistical Energy Analysis of Vibrating Systems," Trans. ASME, J. Eng. Ind. 89, 626 (1967). 139 27

Microgravity Isolation Control System Design Via High-Order Sliding Mode Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shkolnikov, Ilya; Shtessel, Yuri; Whorton, Mark S.; Jackson, Mark

2000-01-01

Vibration isolation control system design for a microgravity experiment mount is considered. The controller design based on dynamic sliding manifold (DSM) technique is proposed to attenuate the accelerations transmitted to an isolated experiment mount either from a vibrating base or directly generated by the experiment, as well as to stabilize the internal dynamics of this nonminimum phase plant. An auxiliary DSM is employed to maintain the high-order sliding mode on the primary sliding manifold in the presence of uncertain actuator dynamics of second order. The primary DSM is designed for the closed-loop system in sliding mode to be a filter with given characteristics with respect to the input external disturbances.

Decentralized stochastic control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Speyer, J. L.

1980-01-01

Decentralized stochastic control is characterized by being decentralized in that the information to one controller is not the same as information to another controller. The system including the information has a stochastic or uncertain component. This complicates the development of decision rules which one determines under the assumption that the system is deterministic. The system is dynamic which means the present decisions affect future system responses and the information in the system. This circumstance presents a complex problem where tools like dynamic programming are no longer applicable. These difficulties are discussed from an intuitive viewpoint. Particular assumptions are introduced which allow a limited theory which produces mechanizable affine decision rules.

Rendezvous with connectivity preservation for multi-robot systems with an unknown leader

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yi

2018-02-01

This paper studies the leader-following rendezvous problem with connectivity preservation for multi-agent systems composed of uncertain multi-robot systems subject to external disturbances and an unknown leader, both of which are generated by a so-called exosystem with parametric uncertainty. By combining internal model design, potential function technique and adaptive control, two distributed control strategies are proposed to maintain the connectivity of the communication network, to achieve the asymptotic tracking of all the followers to the output of the unknown leader system, as well as to reject unknown external disturbances. It is also worth to mention that the uncertain parameters in the multi-robot systems and exosystem are further allowed to belong to unknown and unbounded sets when applying the second fully distributed control law containing a dynamic gain inspired by high-gain adaptive control or self-tuning regulator.

An Approach and Framework to Synchronize Joint Exercises and Training with Military Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-06

13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT In this dynamic, complex, and uncertain global environment, supporting and conducting joint military...achieved by leveraging a globally networked approach and an integrated framework that shares resources and coordinates activities. A recommended...Intentionally left blank ABSTRACT In this dynamic, complex, and uncertain global environment, supporting and conducting joint military

Design of robust iterative learning control schemes for systems with polytopic uncertainties and sector-bounded nonlinearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boski, Marcin; Paszke, Wojciech

2017-01-01

This paper deals with designing of iterative learning control schemes for uncertain systems with static nonlinearities. More specifically, the nonlinear part is supposed to be sector bounded and system matrices are assumed to range in the polytope of matrices. For systems with such nonlinearities and uncertainties the repetitive process setting is exploited to develop a linear matrix inequality based conditions for computing the feedback and feedforward (learning) controllers. These controllers guarantee acceptable dynamics along the trials and ensure convergence of the trial-to-trial error dynamics, respectively. Numerical examples illustrate the theoretical results and confirm effectiveness of the designed control scheme.

MFIRE-2: A Multi Agent System for Flow-Based Intrusion Detection Using Stochastic Search

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

attacks that are distributed in nature , but may not protect individual systems effectively without incurring large bandwidth penalties while collecting...system-level information to help prepare for more significant attacks. The type of information potentially revealed by footprinting includes account...key areas where MAS may be appropriate: • The environment is open, highly dynamic, uncertain, or complex • Agents are a natural metaphor—Many

Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Robust Model Predictive Control Algorithm with Guaranteed Resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet A.; Carson, John M., III

2005-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees the resolvability of the associated finite-horizon optimal control problem in a receding-horizon implementation. The control consists of two components; (i) feedforward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives, and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Adaptive and neuroadaptive control for nonnegative and compartmental dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volyanskyy, Kostyantyn Y.

Neural networks have been extensively used for adaptive system identification as well as adaptive and neuroadaptive control of highly uncertain systems. The goal of adaptive and neuroadaptive control is to achieve system performance without excessive reliance on system models. To improve robustness and the speed of adaptation of adaptive and neuroadaptive controllers several controller architectures have been proposed in the literature. In this dissertation, we develop a new neuroadaptive control architecture for nonlinear uncertain dynamical systems. The proposed framework involves a novel controller architecture with additional terms in the update laws that are constructed using a moving window of the integrated system uncertainty. These terms can be used to identify the ideal system weights of the neural network as well as effectively suppress system uncertainty. Linear and nonlinear parameterizations of the system uncertainty are considered and state and output feedback neuroadaptive controllers are developed. Furthermore, we extend the developed framework to discrete-time dynamical systems. To illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach we apply our results to an aircraft model with wing rock dynamics, a spacecraft model with unknown moment of inertia, and an unmanned combat aerial vehicle undergoing actuator failures, and compare our results with standard neuroadaptive control methods. Nonnegative systems are essential in capturing the behavior of a wide range of dynamical systems involving dynamic states whose values are nonnegative. A sub-class of nonnegative dynamical systems are compartmental systems. These systems are derived from mass and energy balance considerations and are comprised of homogeneous interconnected microscopic subsystems or compartments which exchange variable quantities of material via intercompartmental flow laws. In this dissertation, we develop direct adaptive and neuroadaptive control framework for stabilization, disturbance rejection and noise suppression for nonnegative and compartmental dynamical systems with noise and exogenous system disturbances. We then use the developed framework to control the infusion of the anesthetic drug propofol for maintaining a desired constant level of depth of anesthesia for surgery in the face of continuing hemorrhage and hemodilution. Critical care patients, whether undergoing surgery or recovering in intensive care units, require drug administration to regulate physiological variables such as blood pressure, cardiac output, heart rate, and degree of consciousness. The rate of infusion of each administered drug is critical, requiring constant monitoring and frequent adjustments. In this dissertation, we develop a neuroadaptive output feedback control framework for nonlinear uncertain nonnegative and compartmental systems with nonnegative control inputs and noisy measurements. The proposed framework is Lyapunov-based and guarantees ultimate boundedness of the error signals. In addition, the neuroadaptive controller guarantees that the physical system states remain in the nonnegative orthant of the state space. Finally, the developed approach is used to control the infusion of the anesthetic drug propofol for maintaining a desired constant level of depth of anesthesia for surgery in the face of noisy electroencephalographic (EEG) measurements. Clinical trials demonstrate excellent regulation of unconsciousness allowing for a safe and effective administration of the anesthetic agent propofol. Furthermore, a neuroadaptive output feedback control architecture for nonlinear nonnegative dynamical systems with input amplitude and integral constraints is developed. Specifically, the neuroadaptive controller guarantees that the imposed amplitude and integral input constraints are satisfied and the physical system states remain in the nonnegative orthant of the state space. The proposed approach is used to control the infusion of the anesthetic drug propofol for maintaining a desired constant level of depth of anesthesia for noncardiac surgery in the face of infusion rate constraints and a drug dosing constraint over a specified period. In addition, the aforementioned control architecture is used to control lung volume and minute ventilation with input pressure constraints that also accounts for spontaneous breathing by the patient. Specifically, we develop a pressure- and work-limited neuroadaptive controller for mechanical ventilation based on a nonlinear multi-compartmental lung model. The control framework does not rely on any averaged data and is designed to automatically adjust the input pressure to the patient's physiological characteristics capturing lung resistance and compliance modeling uncertainty. Moreover, the controller accounts for input pressure constraints as well as work of breathing constraints. The effect of spontaneous breathing is incorporated within the lung model and the control framework. Finally, a neural network hybrid adaptive control framework for nonlinear uncertain hybrid dynamical systems is developed. The proposed hybrid adaptive control framework is Lyapunov-based and guarantees partial asymptotic stability of the closed-loop hybrid system; that is, asymptotic stability with respect to part of the closed-loop system states associated with the hybrid plant states. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed hybrid adaptive stabilization approach.

Parameter identification for structural dynamics based on interval analysis algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chen; Lu, Zixing; Yang, Zhenyu; Liang, Ke

2018-04-01

A parameter identification method using interval analysis algorithm for structural dynamics is presented in this paper. The proposed uncertain identification method is investigated by using central difference method and ARMA system. With the help of the fixed memory least square method and matrix inverse lemma, a set-membership identification technology is applied to obtain the best estimation of the identified parameters in a tight and accurate region. To overcome the lack of insufficient statistical description of the uncertain parameters, this paper treats uncertainties as non-probabilistic intervals. As long as we know the bounds of uncertainties, this algorithm can obtain not only the center estimations of parameters, but also the bounds of errors. To improve the efficiency of the proposed method, a time-saving algorithm is presented by recursive formula. At last, to verify the accuracy of the proposed method, two numerical examples are applied and evaluated by three identification criteria respectively.

Autonomous Vehicle Systems Laboratory Research Capability Expansion Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-03

currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. University of the Incarnate Word 4301 Broadway, Box #T-2 San Antonio...autonomous control , collaboration, and decision-making in unstructured, dynamic, and uncertain nonlinear environments for autonomous ground and air...vehicle systems. To fulfill the research goal, the PI has initiated fundamental research in the areas of autonomous rotorcraft control and

Multiobjective optimization in structural design with uncertain parameters and stochastic processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, S. S.

1984-01-01

The application of multiobjective optimization techniques to structural design problems involving uncertain parameters and random processes is studied. The design of a cantilever beam with a tip mass subjected to a stochastic base excitation is considered for illustration. Several of the problem parameters are assumed to be random variables and the structural mass, fatigue damage, and negative of natural frequency of vibration are considered for minimization. The solution of this three-criteria design problem is found by using global criterion, utility function, game theory, goal programming, goal attainment, bounded objective function, and lexicographic methods. It is observed that the game theory approach is superior in finding a better optimum solution, assuming the proper balance of the various objective functions. The procedures used in the present investigation are expected to be useful in the design of general dynamic systems involving uncertain parameters, stochastic process, and multiple objectives.

Rotorcraft control system design for uncertain vehicle dynamics using quantitative feedback theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1994-01-01

Quantitative Feedback Theory describes a frequency-domain technique for the design of multi-input, multi-output control systems which must meet time or frequency domain performance criteria when specified uncertainty exists in the linear description of the vehicle dynamics. This theory is applied to the design of the longitudinal flight control system for a linear model of the BO-105C rotorcraft. Uncertainty in the vehicle model is due to the variation in the vehicle dynamics over a range of airspeeds from 0-100 kts. For purposes of exposition, the vehicle description contains no rotor or actuator dynamics. The design example indicates the manner in which significant uncertainty exists in the vehicle model. The advantage of using a sequential loop closure technique to reduce the cost of feedback is demonstrated by example.

Planning in Dynamic and Uncertain Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-05-01

particular, General Electric’s (GE) Tachyon system [2]), and uses the communication software provided in the CPE (in particular, the Cronus and Knet...and gets back information about the world and replanning requests. "* We extended SIPE-2 to interact with GE’s Tachyon system in a loosely coupled...manner. Tachyon is able to process extended temporal constraints for SIPE-2 during planning. They communicate by using the Cronus system in the CPE

Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bole, Brian; Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George

2012-01-01

A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

Sensor fault diagnosis of singular delayed LPV systems with inexact parameters: an uncertain system approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanabadi, Amir Hossein; Shafiee, Masoud; Puig, Vicenc

2018-01-01

In this paper, sensor fault diagnosis of a singular delayed linear parameter varying (LPV) system is considered. In the considered system, the model matrices are dependent on some parameters which are real-time measurable. The case of inexact parameter measurements is considered which is close to real situations. Fault diagnosis in this system is achieved via fault estimation. For this purpose, an augmented system is created by including sensor faults as additional system states. Then, an unknown input observer (UIO) is designed which estimates both the system states and the faults in the presence of measurement noise, disturbances and uncertainty induced by inexact measured parameters. Error dynamics and the original system constitute an uncertain system due to inconsistencies between real and measured values of the parameters. Then, the robust estimation of the system states and the faults are achieved with H∞ performance and formulated with a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The designed UIO is also applicable for fault diagnosis of singular delayed LPV systems with unmeasurable scheduling variables. The efficiency of the proposed approach is illustrated with an example.

Optimal design for robust control of uncertain flexible joint manipulators: a fuzzy dynamical system approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jiang; Chen, Ye-Hwa; Zhao, Xiaomin; Dong, Fangfang

2018-04-01

A novel fuzzy dynamical system approach to the control design of flexible joint manipulators with mismatched uncertainty is proposed. Uncertainties of the system are assumed to lie within prescribed fuzzy sets. The desired system performance includes a deterministic phase and a fuzzy phase. First, by creatively implanting a fictitious control, a robust control scheme is constructed to render the system uniformly bounded and uniformly ultimately bounded. Both the manipulator modelling and control scheme are deterministic and not IF-THEN heuristic rules-based. Next, a fuzzy-based performance index is proposed. An optimal design problem for a control design parameter is formulated as a constrained optimisation problem. The global solution to this problem can be obtained from solving two quartic equations. The fuzzy dynamical system approach is systematic and is able to assure the deterministic performance as well as to minimise the fuzzy performance index.

Development and Evaluation of Fault-Tolerant Flight Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Yong D.; Gupta, Kajal (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

The research is concerned with developing a new approach to enhancing fault tolerance of flight control systems. The original motivation for fault-tolerant control comes from the need for safe operation of control elements (e.g. actuators) in the event of hardware failures in high reliability systems. One such example is modem space vehicle subjected to actuator/sensor impairments. A major task in flight control is to revise the control policy to balance impairment detectability and to achieve sufficient robustness. This involves careful selection of types and parameters of the controllers and the impairment detecting filters used. It also involves a decision, upon the identification of some failures, on whether and how a control reconfiguration should take place in order to maintain a certain system performance level. In this project new flight dynamic model under uncertain flight conditions is considered, in which the effects of both ramp and jump faults are reflected. Stabilization algorithms based on neural network and adaptive method are derived. The control algorithms are shown to be effective in dealing with uncertain dynamics due to external disturbances and unpredictable faults. The overall strategy is easy to set up and the computation involved is much less as compared with other strategies. Computer simulation software is developed. A serious of simulation studies have been conducted with varying flight conditions.

Finite-time adaptive sliding mode force control for electro-hydraulic load simulator based on improved GMS friction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Shuo; Yan, Hao; Dong, Lijing; Li, Changchun

2018-03-01

This paper addresses the force tracking problem of electro-hydraulic load simulator under the influence of nonlinear friction and uncertain disturbance. A nonlinear system model combined with the improved generalized Maxwell-slip (GMS) friction model is firstly derived to describe the characteristics of load simulator system more accurately. Then, by using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm ​combined with the system hysteresis characteristic analysis, the GMS friction parameters are identified. To compensate for nonlinear friction and uncertain disturbance, a finite-time adaptive sliding mode control method is proposed based on the accurate system model. This controller has the ability to ensure that the system state moves along the nonlinear sliding surface to steady state in a short time as well as good dynamic properties under the influence of parametric uncertainties and disturbance, which further improves the force loading accuracy and rapidity. At the end of this work, simulation and experimental results are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed sliding mode control strategy.

Understanding the dynamics of sustainable social-ecological systems: human behavior, institutions, and regulatory feedback networks.

PubMed

Anderies, John M

2015-02-01

I present a general mathematical modeling framework that can provide a foundation for the study of sustainability in social- ecological systems (SESs). Using basic principles from feedback control and a sequence of specific models from bioeconomics and economic growth, I outline several mathematical and empirical challenges associated with the study of sustainability of SESs. These challenges are categorized into three classes: (1) the social choice of performance measures, (2) uncertainty, and (3) collective action. Finally, I present some opportunities for combining stylized dynamical systems models with empirical data on human behavior and biophysical systems to address practical challenges for the design of effective governance regimes (policy feedbacks) for highly uncertain natural resource systems.

Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Probabilistic Reasoning: Directed Cyclic Graph and Joint Probability Distribution.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin

2015-07-01

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as Bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning. Dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is a newly presented model of PGMs, which can be applied to fault diagnosis of large and complex industrial systems, disease diagnosis, and so on. The basic methodology of DUCG has been previously presented, in which only the directed acyclic graph (DAG) was addressed. However, the mathematical meaning of DUCG was not discussed. In this paper, the DUCG with directed cyclic graphs (DCGs) is addressed. In contrast, BN does not allow DCGs, as otherwise the conditional independence will not be satisfied. The inference algorithm for the DUCG with DCGs is presented, which not only extends the capabilities of DUCG from DAGs to DCGs but also enables users to decompose a large and complex DUCG into a set of small, simple sub-DUCGs, so that a large and complex knowledge base can be easily constructed, understood, and maintained. The basic mathematical definition of a complete DUCG with or without DCGs is proved to be a joint probability distribution (JPD) over a set of random variables. The incomplete DUCG as a part of a complete DUCG may represent a part of JPD. Examples are provided to illustrate the methodology.

Decision making under uncertainty: Recommendations for the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson

2015-01-01

The management of wildfire is a dynamic, complex, and fundamentally uncertain enterprise. Fire managers face uncertainties regarding fire weather and subsequent influence on fire behavior, the effects of fire on socioeconomic and ecological resources, and the efficacy of alternative suppression actions on fire outcomes. In these types of difficult decision environments...

Adaptive control for a class of nonlinear complex dynamical systems with uncertain complex parameters and perturbations

PubMed Central

Liu, Jian; Liu, Kexin; Liu, Shutang

2017-01-01

In this paper, adaptive control is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new control scheme for a class of n-dimensional time-dependent strict-feedback complex-variable chaotic (hyperchaotic) systems (CVCSs) in the presence of uncertain complex parameters and perturbations, which has not been previously reported in the literature. In detail, we have developed a unified framework for designing the adaptive complex scalar controller to ensure this type of CVCSs asymptotically stable and for selecting complex update laws to estimate unknown complex parameters. In particular, combining Lyapunov functions dependent on complex-valued vectors and back-stepping technique, sufficient criteria on stabilization of CVCSs are derived in the sense of Wirtinger calculus in complex space. Finally, numerical simulation is presented to validate our theoretical results. PMID:28467431

Adaptive control for a class of nonlinear complex dynamical systems with uncertain complex parameters and perturbations.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Liu, Kexin; Liu, Shutang

2017-01-01

In this paper, adaptive control is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new control scheme for a class of n-dimensional time-dependent strict-feedback complex-variable chaotic (hyperchaotic) systems (CVCSs) in the presence of uncertain complex parameters and perturbations, which has not been previously reported in the literature. In detail, we have developed a unified framework for designing the adaptive complex scalar controller to ensure this type of CVCSs asymptotically stable and for selecting complex update laws to estimate unknown complex parameters. In particular, combining Lyapunov functions dependent on complex-valued vectors and back-stepping technique, sufficient criteria on stabilization of CVCSs are derived in the sense of Wirtinger calculus in complex space. Finally, numerical simulation is presented to validate our theoretical results.

Applied estimation for hybrid dynamical systems using perceptional information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plotnik, Aaron M.

This dissertation uses the motivating example of robotic tracking of mobile deep ocean animals to present innovations in robotic perception and estimation for hybrid dynamical systems. An approach to estimation for hybrid systems is presented that utilizes uncertain perceptional information about the system's mode to improve tracking of its mode and continuous states. This results in significant improvements in situations where previously reported methods of estimation for hybrid systems perform poorly due to poor distinguishability of the modes. The specific application that motivates this research is an automatic underwater robotic observation system that follows and films individual deep ocean animals. A first version of such a system has been developed jointly by the Stanford Aerospace Robotics Laboratory and Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI). This robotic observation system is successfully fielded on MBARI's ROVs, but agile specimens often evade the system. When a human ROV pilot performs this task, one advantage that he has over the robotic observation system in these situations is the ability to use visual perceptional information about the target, immediately recognizing any changes in the specimen's behavior mode. With the approach of the human pilot in mind, a new version of the robotic observation system is proposed which is extended to (a) derive perceptional information (visual cues) about the behavior mode of the tracked specimen, and (b) merge this dissimilar, discrete and uncertain information with more traditional continuous noisy sensor data by extending existing algorithms for hybrid estimation. These performance enhancements are enabled by integrating techniques in hybrid estimation, computer vision and machine learning. First, real-time computer vision and classification algorithms extract a visual observation of the target's behavior mode. Existing hybrid estimation algorithms are extended to admit this uncertain but discrete observation, complementing the information available from more traditional sensors. State tracking is achieved using a new form of Rao-Blackwellized particle filter called the mode-observed Gaussian Particle Filter. Performance is demonstrated using data from simulation and data collected on actual specimens in the ocean. The framework for estimation using both traditional and perceptional information is easily extensible to other stochastic hybrid systems with mode-related perceptional observations available.

Robust scalable stabilisability conditions for large-scale heterogeneous multi-agent systems with uncertain nonlinear interactions: towards a distributed computing architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfredi, Sabato

2016-06-01

Large-scale dynamic systems are becoming highly pervasive in their occurrence with applications ranging from system biology, environment monitoring, sensor networks, and power systems. They are characterised by high dimensionality, complexity, and uncertainty in the node dynamic/interactions that require more and more computational demanding methods for their analysis and control design, as well as the network size and node system/interaction complexity increase. Therefore, it is a challenging problem to find scalable computational method for distributed control design of large-scale networks. In this paper, we investigate the robust distributed stabilisation problem of large-scale nonlinear multi-agent systems (briefly MASs) composed of non-identical (heterogeneous) linear dynamical systems coupled by uncertain nonlinear time-varying interconnections. By employing Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique, new conditions are given for the distributed control design of large-scale MASs that can be easily solved by the toolbox of MATLAB. The stabilisability of each node dynamic is a sufficient assumption to design a global stabilising distributed control. The proposed approach improves some of the existing LMI-based results on MAS by both overcoming their computational limits and extending the applicative scenario to large-scale nonlinear heterogeneous MASs. Additionally, the proposed LMI conditions are further reduced in terms of computational requirement in the case of weakly heterogeneous MASs, which is a common scenario in real application where the network nodes and links are affected by parameter uncertainties. One of the main advantages of the proposed approach is to allow to move from a centralised towards a distributed computing architecture so that the expensive computation workload spent to solve LMIs may be shared among processors located at the networked nodes, thus increasing the scalability of the approach than the network size. Finally, a numerical example shows the applicability of the proposed method and its advantage in terms of computational complexity when compared with the existing approaches.

Direct Adaptive Control of Systems with Actuator Failures: State of the Art and Continuing Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Gang; Joshi, Suresh M.

2008-01-01

In this paper, the problem of controlling systems with failures and faults is introduced, and an overview of recent work on direct adaptive control for compensation of uncertain actuator failures is presented. Actuator failures may be characterized by some unknown system inputs being stuck at some unknown (fixed or varying) values at unknown time instants, that cannot be influenced by the control signals. The key task of adaptive compensation is to design the control signals in such a manner that the remaining actuators can automatically and seamlessly take over for the failed ones, and achieve desired stability and asymptotic tracking. A certain degree of redundancy is necessary to accomplish failure compensation. The objective of adaptive control design is to effectively use the available actuation redundancy to handle failures without the knowledge of the failure patterns, parameters, and time of occurrence. This is a challenging problem because failures introduce large uncertainties in the dynamic structure of the system, in addition to parametric uncertainties and unknown disturbances. The paper addresses some theoretical issues in adaptive actuator failure compensation: actuator failure modeling, redundant actuation requirements, plant-model matching, error system dynamics, adaptation laws, and stability, tracking, and performance analysis. Adaptive control designs can be shown to effectively handle uncertain actuator failures without explicit failure detection. Some open technical challenges and research problems in this important research area are discussed.

Adaptive tracking control of a wheeled mobile robot via an uncalibrated camera system.

PubMed

Dixon, W E; Dawson, D M; Zergeroglu, E; Behal, A

2001-01-01

This paper considers the problem of position/orientation tracking control of wheeled mobile robots via visual servoing in the presence of parametric uncertainty associated with the mechanical dynamics and the camera system. Specifically, we design an adaptive controller that compensates for uncertain camera and mechanical parameters and ensures global asymptotic position/orientation tracking. Simulation and experimental results are included to illustrate the performance of the control law.

Supercomputer optimizations for stochastic optimal control applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Siu-Leung; Hanson, Floyd B.; Xu, Huihuang

1991-01-01

Supercomputer optimizations for a computational method of solving stochastic, multibody, dynamic programming problems are presented. The computational method is valid for a general class of optimal control problems that are nonlinear, multibody dynamical systems, perturbed by general Markov noise in continuous time, i.e., nonsmooth Gaussian as well as jump Poisson random white noise. Optimization techniques for vector multiprocessors or vectorizing supercomputers include advanced data structures, loop restructuring, loop collapsing, blocking, and compiler directives. These advanced computing techniques and superconducting hardware help alleviate Bellman's curse of dimensionality in dynamic programming computations, by permitting the solution of large multibody problems. Possible applications include lumped flight dynamics models for uncertain environments, such as large scale and background random aerospace fluctuations.

Dynamic Control of Plans with Temporal Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Paul; Muscettola, Nicola; Vidal, Thierry

2001-01-01

Certain planning systems that deal with quantitative time constraints have used an underlying Simple Temporal Problem solver to ensure temporal consistency of plans. However, many applications involve processes of uncertain duration whose timing cannot be controlled by the execution agent. These cases require more complex notions of temporal feasibility. In previous work, various "controllability" properties such as Weak, Strong, and Dynamic Controllability have been defined. The most interesting and useful Controllability property, the Dynamic one, has ironically proved to be the most difficult to analyze. In this paper, we resolve the complexity issue for Dynamic Controllability. Unexpectedly, the problem turns out to be tractable. We also show how to efficiently execute networks whose status has been verified.

Long-time uncertainty propagation using generalized polynomial chaos and flow map composition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luchtenburg, Dirk M., E-mail: dluchten@cooper.edu; Brunton, Steven L.; Rowley, Clarence W.

2014-10-01

We present an efficient and accurate method for long-time uncertainty propagation in dynamical systems. Uncertain initial conditions and parameters are both addressed. The method approximates the intermediate short-time flow maps by spectral polynomial bases, as in the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) method, and uses flow map composition to construct the long-time flow map. In contrast to the gPC method, this approach has spectral error convergence for both short and long integration times. The short-time flow map is characterized by small stretching and folding of the associated trajectories and hence can be well represented by a relatively low-degree basis. The compositionmore » of these low-degree polynomial bases then accurately describes the uncertainty behavior for long integration times. The key to the method is that the degree of the resulting polynomial approximation increases exponentially in the number of time intervals, while the number of polynomial coefficients either remains constant (for an autonomous system) or increases linearly in the number of time intervals (for a non-autonomous system). The findings are illustrated on several numerical examples including a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) with an uncertain initial condition, a linear ODE with an uncertain model parameter, and a two-dimensional, non-autonomous double gyre flow.« less

Adaptive control of an exoskeleton robot with uncertainties on kinematics and dynamics.

PubMed

Brahmi, Brahim; Saad, Maarouf; Ochoa-Luna, Cristobal; Rahman, Mohammad H

2017-07-01

In this paper, we propose a new adaptive control technique based on nonlinear sliding mode control (JSTDE) taking into account kinematics and dynamics uncertainties. This approach is applied to an exoskeleton robot with uncertain kinematics and dynamics. The adaptation design is based on Time Delay Estimation (TDE). The proposed strategy does not necessitate the well-defined dynamic and kinematic models of the system robot. The updated laws are designed using Lyapunov-function to solve the adaptation problem systematically, proving the close loop stability and ensuring the convergence asymptotically of the outputs tracking errors. Experiments results show the effectiveness and feasibility of JSTDE technique to deal with the variation of the unknown nonlinear dynamics and kinematics of the exoskeleton model.

Adaptive fuzzy dynamic surface control of nonlinear systems with input saturation and time-varying output constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edalati, L.; Khaki Sedigh, A.; Aliyari Shooredeli, M.; Moarefianpour, A.

2018-02-01

This paper deals with the design of adaptive fuzzy dynamic surface control for uncertain strict-feedback nonlinear systems with asymmetric time-varying output constraints in the presence of input saturation. To approximate the unknown nonlinear functions and overcome the problem of explosion of complexity, a Fuzzy logic system is combined with the dynamic surface control in the backstepping design technique. To ensure the output constraints satisfaction, an asymmetric time-varying Barrier Lyapunov Function (BLF) is used. Moreover, by applying the minimal learning parameter technique, the number of the online parameters update for each subsystem is reduced to 2. Hence, the semi-globally uniformly ultimately boundedness (SGUUB) of all the closed-loop signals with appropriate tracking error convergence is guaranteed. The effectiveness of the proposed control is demonstrated by two simulation examples.

Implementation of Push Recovery Strategy Using Triple Linear Inverted Pendulum Model in “T-FloW” Humanoid Robot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimas Pristovani, R.; Raden Sanggar, D.; Dadet, Pramadihanto.

2018-04-01

Push recovery is one of humanbehaviorwhich is a strategy to defend the body from anexternal force in any environment. This paper describes push recovery strategy which usesMIMO decoupled control system method. The dynamics system uses aquasi-dynamic system based on triple linear inverted pendulum model (TLIPM). The analysis of TLIPMuses zero moment point (ZMP) calculation from ZMP simplification in last research. By using this simplification of dynamics system, the control design can be simplified into 3 serial SISOwith known and uncertain disturbance models in each inverted pendulum. Each pendulum has different plan to damp the external force effect. In this experiment, PID controller (closed- loop)is used to arrange the damp characteristic.The experiment result shows thatwhen using push recovery control strategy (closed-loop control) is about 85.71% whilewithout using push recovery control strategy (open-loop control) it is about 28.57%.

An online tool for Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS): a Statistical-Dynamical Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, M.; Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.

2017-12-01

The Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS) is an online tool recently developed at Portland State University for operational agricultural drought forecasting. This is an integrated statistical-dynamical framework issuing probabilistic drought forecasts monthly for the lead times of 1, 2, and 3 months. The statistical drought forecasting method utilizes copula functions in order to condition the future soil moisture values on the antecedent states. Due to stochastic nature of land surface properties, the antecedent soil moisture states are uncertain; therefore, data assimilation system based on Particle Filtering (PF) is employed to quantify the uncertainties associated with the initial condition of the land state, i.e. soil moisture. PF assimilates the satellite soil moisture data to Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model and ultimately updates the simulated soil moisture. The OPDFS builds on the NOAA's seasonal drought outlook by offering drought probabilities instead of qualitative ordinal categories and provides the user with the probability maps associated with a particular drought category. A retrospective assessment of the OPDFS showed that the forecasting of the 2012 Great Plains and 2014 California droughts were possible at least one month in advance. The OPDFS offers a timely assistance to water managers, stakeholders and decision-makers to develop resilience against uncertain upcoming droughts.

Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

PubMed

Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

2015-06-07

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear dynamics analysis of the spur gear system for railway locomotive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junguo; He, Guangyue; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yongxiang; Yao, Yuan

2017-02-01

Considering the factors such as the nonlinearity backlash, static transmission error and time-varying meshing stiffness, a three-degree-of-freedom torsional vibration model of spur gear transmission system for a typical locomotive is developed, in which the wheel/rail adhesion torque is considered as uncertain but bounded parameter. Meantime, the Ishikawa method is used for analysis and calculation of the time-varying mesh stiffness of the gear pair in meshing process. With the help of bifurcation diagrams, phase plane diagrams, Poincaré maps, time domain response diagrams and amplitude-frequency spectrums, the effects of the pinion speed and stiffness on the dynamic behavior of gear transmission system for locomotive are investigated in detail by using the numerical integration method. Numerical examples reveal various types of nonlinear phenomena and dynamic evolution mechanism involving one-period responses, multi-periodic responses, bifurcation and chaotic responses. Some research results present useful information to dynamic design and vibration control of the gear transmission system for railway locomotive.

Algorithms for sum-of-squares-based stability analysis and control design of uncertain nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ataei-Esfahani, Armin

In this dissertation, we present algorithmic procedures for sum-of-squares based stability analysis and control design for uncertain nonlinear systems. In particular, we consider the case of robust aircraft control design for a hypersonic aircraft model subject to parametric uncertainties in its aerodynamic coefficients. In recent years, Sum-of-Squares (SOS) method has attracted increasing interest as a new approach for stability analysis and controller design of nonlinear dynamic systems. Through the application of SOS method, one can describe a stability analysis or control design problem as a convex optimization problem, which can efficiently be solved using Semidefinite Programming (SDP) solvers. For nominal systems, the SOS method can provide a reliable and fast approach for stability analysis and control design for low-order systems defined over the space of relatively low-degree polynomials. However, The SOS method is not well-suited for control problems relating to uncertain systems, specially those with relatively high number of uncertainties or those with non-affine uncertainty structure. In order to avoid issues relating to the increased complexity of the SOS problems for uncertain system, we present an algorithm that can be used to transform an SOS problem with uncertainties into a LMI problem with uncertainties. A new Probabilistic Ellipsoid Algorithm (PEA) is given to solve the robust LMI problem, which can guarantee the feasibility of a given solution candidate with an a-priori fixed probability of violation and with a fixed confidence level. We also introduce two approaches to approximate the robust region of attraction (RROA) for uncertain nonlinear systems with non-affine dependence on uncertainties. The first approach is based on a combination of PEA and SOS method and searches for a common Lyapunov function, while the second approach is based on the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansion theorem combined with the SOS method and searches for parameter-dependent Lyapunov functions. The control design problem is investigated through a case study of a hypersonic aircraft model with parametric uncertainties. Through time-scale decomposition and a series of function approximations, the complexity of the aircraft model is reduced to fall within the capability of SDP solvers. The control design problem is then formulated as a convex problem using the dual of the Lyapunov theorem. A nonlinear robust controller is searched using the combined PEA/SOS method. The response of the uncertain aircraft model is evaluated for two sets of pilot commands. As the simulation results show, the aircraft remains stable under up to 50% uncertainty in aerodynamic coefficients and can follow the pilot commands.

An imprecise probability approach for squeal instability analysis based on evidence theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Hui; Shangguan, Wen-Bin; Yu, Dejie

2017-01-01

An imprecise probability approach based on evidence theory is proposed for squeal instability analysis of uncertain disc brakes in this paper. First, the squeal instability of the finite element (FE) model of a disc brake is investigated and its dominant unstable eigenvalue is detected by running two typical numerical simulations, i.e., complex eigenvalue analysis (CEA) and transient dynamical analysis. Next, the uncertainty mainly caused by contact and friction is taken into account and some key parameters of the brake are described as uncertain parameters. All these uncertain parameters are usually involved with imprecise data such as incomplete information and conflict information. Finally, a squeal instability analysis model considering imprecise uncertainty is established by integrating evidence theory, Taylor expansion, subinterval analysis and surrogate model. In the proposed analysis model, the uncertain parameters with imprecise data are treated as evidence variables, and the belief measure and plausibility measure are employed to evaluate system squeal instability. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by numerical examples and some interesting observations and conclusions are summarized from the analyses and discussions. The proposed approach is generally limited to the squeal problems without too many investigated parameters. It can be considered as a potential method for squeal instability analysis, which will act as the first step to reduce squeal noise of uncertain brakes with imprecise information.

Optimal Objective-Based Experimental Design for Uncertain Dynamical Gene Networks with Experimental Error.

PubMed

Mohsenizadeh, Daniel N; Dehghannasiri, Roozbeh; Dougherty, Edward R

2018-01-01

In systems biology, network models are often used to study interactions among cellular components, a salient aim being to develop drugs and therapeutic mechanisms to change the dynamical behavior of the network to avoid undesirable phenotypes. Owing to limited knowledge, model uncertainty is commonplace and network dynamics can be updated in different ways, thereby giving multiple dynamic trajectories, that is, dynamics uncertainty. In this manuscript, we propose an experimental design method that can effectively reduce the dynamics uncertainty and improve performance in an interaction-based network. Both dynamics uncertainty and experimental error are quantified with respect to the modeling objective, herein, therapeutic intervention. The aim of experimental design is to select among a set of candidate experiments the experiment whose outcome, when applied to the network model, maximally reduces the dynamics uncertainty pertinent to the intervention objective.

Avoiding the Water-Climate-Poverty Trap: Adaptive Risk Management for Bangladesh's Coastal Embankments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, J. W.

2015-12-01

Our recent research on water security (Sadoff et al., 2015, Dadson et al., 2015) has revealed the dynamic relationship between water security and human well-being. A version of this dynamic is materialising in the coastal polder areas of Khulna, Bangladesh. Repeated coastal floods increase salinity, wipe out agricultural yields for several years and increase out-migration. As a tool to help inform and target future cycles of investment in improvements to the coastal embankments, in this paper we propose a dynamical model of biophysical processes and human well-being, which downscales our previous research to the Khulna region. State variables in the model include agricultural production, population, life expectancy and child mortality. Possible infrastructure interventions include embankment improvements, groundwater wells and drainage infrastructure. Hazard factors include flooding, salinization and drinking water pollution. Our system model can be used to inform adaptation decision making by testing the dynamical response of the system to a range of possible policy interventions, under uncertain future conditions. The analysis is intended to target investment and enable adaptive resource reallocation based on learning about the system response to interventions over the seven years of our research programme. The methodology and paper will demonstrate the complex interplay of factors that determine system vulnerability to climate change. The role of climate change uncertainties (in terms of mean sea level rise and storm surge frequency) will be evaluated alongside multiple other uncertain factors that determine system response. Adaptive management in a 'learning system' will be promoted as a mechanism for coping with climate uncertainties. References:Dadson, S., Hall, J.W., Garrick, D., Sadoff, C. and Grey, D. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model, Global Environmental Change, in review.Sadoff, C.W., Hall, J.W., Grey, D., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Ait-Kadi, M., Brown, C., Cox, A., Dadson, S., Garrick, D., Kelman, J., McCornick, P., Ringler, C., Rosegrant, M., Whittington, D. and Wiberg, D. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, April 2015, 180pp.

Variable Neural Adaptive Robust Control: A Switched System Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lian, Jianming; Hu, Jianghai; Zak, Stanislaw H.

2015-05-01

Variable neural adaptive robust control strategies are proposed for the output tracking control of a class of multi-input multi-output uncertain systems. The controllers incorporate a variable-structure radial basis function (RBF) network as the self-organizing approximator for unknown system dynamics. The variable-structure RBF network solves the problem of structure determination associated with fixed-structure RBF networks. It can determine the network structure on-line dynamically by adding or removing radial basis functions according to the tracking performance. The structure variation is taken into account in the stability analysis of the closed-loop system using a switched system approach with the aid of the piecewisemore » quadratic Lyapunov function. The performance of the proposed variable neural adaptive robust controllers is illustrated with simulations.« less

First-passage problems: A probabilistic dynamic analysis for degraded structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

1990-01-01

Structures subjected to random excitations with uncertain system parameters degraded by surrounding environments (a random time history) are studied. Methods are developed to determine the statistics of dynamic responses, such as the time-varying mean, the standard deviation, the autocorrelation functions, and the joint probability density function of any response and its derivative. Moreover, the first-passage problems with deterministic and stationary/evolutionary random barriers are evaluated. The time-varying (joint) mean crossing rate and the probability density function of the first-passage time for various random barriers are derived.

Structural acoustic control of plates with variable boundary conditions: design methodology.

PubMed

Sprofera, Joseph D; Cabell, Randolph H; Gibbs, Gary P; Clark, Robert L

2007-07-01

A method for optimizing a structural acoustic control system subject to variations in plate boundary conditions is provided. The assumed modes method is used to build a plate model with varying levels of rotational boundary stiffness to simulate the dynamics of a plate with uncertain edge conditions. A transducer placement scoring process, involving Hankel singular values, is combined with a genetic optimization routine to find spatial locations robust to boundary condition variation. Predicted frequency response characteristics are examined, and theoretically optimized results are discussed in relation to the range of boundary conditions investigated. Modeled results indicate that it is possible to minimize the impact of uncertain boundary conditions in active structural acoustic control by optimizing the placement of transducers with respect to those uncertainties.

Sustainable infrastructure system modeling under uncertainties and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yongxi

Infrastructure systems support human activities in transportation, communication, water use, and energy supply. The dissertation research focuses on critical transportation infrastructure and renewable energy infrastructure systems. The goal of the research efforts is to improve the sustainability of the infrastructure systems, with an emphasis on economic viability, system reliability and robustness, and environmental impacts. The research efforts in critical transportation infrastructure concern the development of strategic robust resource allocation strategies in an uncertain decision-making environment, considering both uncertain service availability and accessibility. The study explores the performances of different modeling approaches (i.e., deterministic, stochastic programming, and robust optimization) to reflect various risk preferences. The models are evaluated in a case study of Singapore and results demonstrate that stochastic modeling methods in general offers more robust allocation strategies compared to deterministic approaches in achieving high coverage to critical infrastructures under risks. This general modeling framework can be applied to other emergency service applications, such as, locating medical emergency services. The development of renewable energy infrastructure system development aims to answer the following key research questions: (1) is the renewable energy an economically viable solution? (2) what are the energy distribution and infrastructure system requirements to support such energy supply systems in hedging against potential risks? (3) how does the energy system adapt the dynamics from evolving technology and societal needs in the transition into a renewable energy based society? The study of Renewable Energy System Planning with Risk Management incorporates risk management into its strategic planning of the supply chains. The physical design and operational management are integrated as a whole in seeking mitigations against the potential risks caused by feedstock seasonality and demand uncertainty. Facility spatiality, time variation of feedstock yields, and demand uncertainty are integrated into a two-stage stochastic programming (SP) framework. In the study of Transitional Energy System Modeling under Uncertainty, a multistage stochastic dynamic programming is established to optimize the process of building and operating fuel production facilities during the transition. Dynamics due to the evolving technologies and societal changes and uncertainty due to demand fluctuations are the major issues to be addressed.

Model-independent particle accelerator tuning

DOE PAGES

Scheinker, Alexander; Pang, Xiaoying; Rybarcyk, Larry

2013-10-21

We present a new model-independent dynamic feedback technique, rotation rate tuning, for automatically and simultaneously tuning coupled components of uncertain, complex systems. The main advantages of the method are: 1) It has the ability to handle unknown, time-varying systems, 2) It gives known bounds on parameter update rates, 3) We give an analytic proof of its convergence and its stability, and 4) It has a simple digital implementation through a control system such as the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS). Because this technique is model independent it may be useful as a real-time, in-hardware, feedback-based optimization scheme formore » uncertain and time-varying systems. In particular, it is robust enough to handle uncertainty due to coupling, thermal cycling, misalignments, and manufacturing imperfections. As a result, it may be used as a fine-tuning supplement for existing accelerator tuning/control schemes. We present multi-particle simulation results demonstrating the scheme’s ability to simultaneously adaptively adjust the set points of twenty two quadrupole magnets and two RF buncher cavities in the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center Linear Accelerator’s transport region, while the beam properties and RF phase shift are continuously varying. The tuning is based only on beam current readings, without knowledge of particle dynamics. We also present an outline of how to implement this general scheme in software for optimization, and in hardware for feedback-based control/tuning, for a wide range of systems.« less

Navigation of autonomous vehicles for oil spill cleaning in dynamic and uncertain environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xin; Ray, Asok

2014-04-01

In the context of oil spill cleaning by autonomous vehicles in dynamic and uncertain environments, this paper presents a multi-resolution algorithm that seamlessly integrates the concepts of local navigation and global navigation based on the sensory information; the objective here is to enable adaptive decision making and online replanning of vehicle paths. The proposed algorithm provides a complete coverage of the search area for clean-up of the oil spills and does not suffer from the problem of having local minima, which is commonly encountered in potential-field-based methods. The efficacy of the algorithm is tested on a high-fidelity player/stage simulator for oil spill cleaning in a harbour, where the underlying oil weathering process is modelled as 2D random-walk particle tracking. A preliminary version of this paper was presented by X. Jin and A. Ray as 'Coverage Control of Autonomous Vehicles for Oil Spill Cleaning in Dynamic and Uncertain Environments', Proceedings of the American Control Conference, Washington, DC, June 2013, pp. 2600-2605.

Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model.

PubMed

Hao, Shao-Rui; Geng, Shi-Chao; Fan, Lin-Xiao; Chen, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-Juan

2017-05-01

Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A "chaining" inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure.

Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model*

PubMed Central

Hao, Shao-rui; Geng, Shi-chao; Fan, Lin-xiao; Chen, Jia-jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-juan

2017-01-01

Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A “chaining” inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure. PMID:28471111

Estimation of the full-field dynamic response of a floating bridge using Kalman-type filtering algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Ø. W.; Øiseth, O.; Nord, T. S.; Lourens, E.

2018-07-01

Numerical predictions of the dynamic response of complex structures are often uncertain due to uncertainties inherited from the assumed load effects. Inverse methods can estimate the true dynamic response of a structure through system inversion, combining measured acceleration data with a system model. This article presents a case study of full-field dynamic response estimation of a long-span floating bridge: the Bergøysund Bridge in Norway. This bridge is instrumented with a network of 14 triaxial accelerometers. The system model consists of 27 vibration modes with natural frequencies below 2 Hz, obtained from a tuned finite element model that takes the fluid-structure interaction with the surrounding water into account. Two methods, a joint input-state estimation algorithm and a dual Kalman filter, are applied to estimate the full-field response of the bridge. The results demonstrate that the displacements and the accelerations can be estimated at unmeasured locations with reasonable accuracy when the wave loads are the dominant source of excitation.

Systems and Methods for Parameter Dependent Riccati Equation Approaches to Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kilsoo (Inventor); Yucelen, Tansel (Inventor); Calise, Anthony J. (Inventor)

2015-01-01

Systems and methods for adaptive control are disclosed. The systems and methods can control uncertain dynamic systems. The control system can comprise a controller that employs a parameter dependent Riccati equation. The controller can produce a response that causes the state of the system to remain bounded. The control system can control both minimum phase and non-minimum phase systems. The control system can augment an existing, non-adaptive control design without modifying the gains employed in that design. The control system can also avoid the use of high gains in both the observer design and the adaptive control law.

Command Filtering-Based Fuzzy Control for Nonlinear Systems With Saturation Input.

PubMed

Yu, Jinpeng; Shi, Peng; Dong, Wenjie; Lin, Chong

2017-09-01

In this paper, command filtering-based fuzzy control is designed for uncertain multi-input multioutput (MIMO) nonlinear systems with saturation nonlinearity input. First, the command filtering method is employed to deal with the explosion of complexity caused by the derivative of virtual controllers. Then, fuzzy logic systems are utilized to approximate the nonlinear functions of MIMO systems. Furthermore, error compensation mechanism is introduced to overcome the drawback of the dynamics surface approach. The developed method will guarantee all signals of the systems are bounded. The effectiveness and advantages of the theoretic result are obtained by a simulation example.

An inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality.

PubMed

Fu, Zhenghui; Wang, Han; Lu, Wentao; Guo, Huaicheng; Li, Wei

2017-12-01

Electric power system involves different fields and disciplines which addressed the economic system, energy system, and environment system. Inner uncertainty of this compound system would be an inevitable problem. Therefore, an inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming (IMFSP) was developed for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality. A model which concluded interval-parameter programming, multistage stochastic programming, and fuzzy probability distribution was built to reflect the uncertain information and dynamic variation in the case study, and the scenarios under different credibility degrees were considered. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions were allowed to be taken dynamically in accordance with the pre-regulated policies and the uncertainties in reality. The results suggest that the methodology is applicable to handle the uncertainty of regional electric power management systems and help the decision makers to establish an effective development plan.

Decentralized Estimation and Vision-based Guidance of Fast Autonomous Systems with Guaranteed Performance in Uncertain Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-22

Following for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Using L1 Adaptive Augmentation of Commercial Autopilots, Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, (3 2010): 0...Naira Hovakimyan. L1 Adaptive Controller for MIMO system with Unmatched Uncertainties using Modi?ed Piecewise Constant Adaptation Law, IEEE 51st...adaptive input nominal input with  Nominal input L1 ‐based control generator  This L1 adaptive control architecture uses data from the reference model

Control of linear uncertain systems utilizing mismatched state observers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, B.

1972-01-01

The control of linear continuous dynamical systems is investigated as a problem of limited state feedback control. The equations which describe the structure of an observer are developed constrained to time-invarient systems. The optimal control problem is formulated, accounting for the uncertainty in the design parameters. Expressions for bounds on closed loop stability are also developed. The results indicate that very little uncertainty may be tolerated before divergence occurs in the recursive computation algorithms, and the derived stability bound yields extremely conservative estimates of regions of allowable parameter variations.

Dynamically analyzing cell interactions in biological environments using multiagent social learning framework.

PubMed

Zhang, Chengwei; Li, Xiaohong; Li, Shuxin; Feng, Zhiyong

2017-09-20

Biological environment is uncertain and its dynamic is similar to the multiagent environment, thus the research results of the multiagent system area can provide valuable insights to the understanding of biology and are of great significance for the study of biology. Learning in a multiagent environment is highly dynamic since the environment is not stationary anymore and each agent's behavior changes adaptively in response to other coexisting learners, and vice versa. The dynamics becomes more unpredictable when we move from fixed-agent interaction environments to multiagent social learning framework. Analytical understanding of the underlying dynamics is important and challenging. In this work, we present a social learning framework with homogeneous learners (e.g., Policy Hill Climbing (PHC) learners), and model the behavior of players in the social learning framework as a hybrid dynamical system. By analyzing the dynamical system, we obtain some conditions about convergence or non-convergence. We experimentally verify the predictive power of our model using a number of representative games. Experimental results confirm the theoretical analysis. Under multiagent social learning framework, we modeled the behavior of agent in biologic environment, and theoretically analyzed the dynamics of the model. We present some sufficient conditions about convergence or non-convergence and prove them theoretically. It can be used to predict the convergence of the system.

An optimization approach for observation association with systemic uncertainty applied to electro-optical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worthy, Johnny L.; Holzinger, Marcus J.; Scheeres, Daniel J.

2018-06-01

The observation to observation measurement association problem for dynamical systems can be addressed by determining if the uncertain admissible regions produced from each observation have one or more points of intersection in state space. An observation association method is developed which uses an optimization based approach to identify local Mahalanobis distance minima in state space between two uncertain admissible regions. A binary hypothesis test with a selected false alarm rate is used to assess the probability that an intersection exists at the point(s) of minimum distance. The systemic uncertainties, such as measurement uncertainties, timing errors, and other parameter errors, define a distribution about a state estimate located at the local Mahalanobis distance minima. If local minima do not exist, then the observations are not associated. The proposed method utilizes an optimization approach defined on a reduced dimension state space to reduce the computational load of the algorithm. The efficacy and efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated on observation data collected from the Georgia Tech Space Object Research Telescope.

Stability and Performance Metrics for Adaptive Flight Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje; Nguyen, Nhan; VanEykeren, Luarens

2009-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of verifying adaptive control techniques for enabling safe flight in the presence of adverse conditions. Since the adaptive systems are non-linear by design, the existing control verification metrics are not applicable to adaptive controllers. Moreover, these systems are in general highly uncertain. Hence, the system's characteristics cannot be evaluated by relying on the available dynamical models. This necessitates the development of control verification metrics based on the system's input-output information. For this point of view, a set of metrics is introduced that compares the uncertain aircraft's input-output behavior under the action of an adaptive controller to that of a closed-loop linear reference model to be followed by the aircraft. This reference model is constructed for each specific maneuver using the exact aerodynamic and mass properties of the aircraft to meet the stability and performance requirements commonly accepted in flight control. The proposed metrics are unified in the sense that they are model independent and not restricted to any specific adaptive control methods. As an example, we present simulation results for a wing damaged generic transport aircraft with several existing adaptive controllers.

The Effects of the Previous Outcome on Probabilistic Choice in Rats

PubMed Central

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2014-01-01

This study examined the effects of previous outcomes on subsequent choices in a probabilistic-choice task. Twenty-four rats were trained to choose between a certain outcome (1 or 3 pellets) versus an uncertain outcome (3 or 9 pellets), delivered with a probability of .1, .33, .67, and .9 in different phases. Uncertain outcome choices increased with the probability of uncertain food. Additionally, uncertain choices increased with the probability of uncertain food following both certain-choice outcomes and unrewarded uncertain choices. However, following uncertain-choice food outcomes, there was a tendency to choose the uncertain outcome in all cases, indicating that the rats continued to “gamble” after successful uncertain choices, regardless of the overall probability or magnitude of food. A subsequent manipulation, in which the probability of uncertain food varied within each session as a function of the previous uncertain outcome, examined how the previous outcome and probability of uncertain food affected choice in a dynamic environment. Uncertain-choice behavior increased with the probability of uncertain food. The rats exhibited increased sensitivity to probability changes and a greater degree of win–stay/lose–shift behavior than in the static phase. Simulations of two sequential choice models were performed to explore the possible mechanisms of reward value computations. The simulation results supported an exponentially decaying value function that updated as a function of trial (rather than time). These results emphasize the importance of analyzing global and local factors in choice behavior and suggest avenues for the future development of sequential-choice models. PMID:23205915

Multilateral Telecoordinated Control of Multiple Robots With Uncertain Kinematics.

PubMed

Zhai, Di-Hua; Xia, Yuanqing

2017-06-06

This paper addresses the telecoordinated control of multiple robots in the simultaneous presence of asymmetric time-varying delays, nonpassive external forces, and uncertain kinematics/dynamics. To achieve the control objective, a neuroadaptive controller with utilizing prescribed performance control and switching control technique is developed, where the basic idea is to employ the concept of motion synchronization in each pair of master-slave robots and among all slave robots. By using the multiple Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals method, the state-independent input-to-output practical stability of the closed-loop system is established. Compared with the previous approaches, the new design is straightforward and easier to implement and is applicable to a wider area. Simulation results on three pairs of three degrees-of-freedom robots confirm the theoretical findings.

Chaos control for the output-constrained system by using adaptive dynamic surface technology and application to the brushless DC motor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Shaohua, E-mail: hua66com@163.com; School of Automation, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044; Hou, Zhiwei

2015-12-15

In this paper, chaos control is proposed for the output- constrained system with uncertain control gain and time delay and is applied to the brushless DC motor. Using the dynamic surface technology, the controller overcomes the repetitive differentiation of backstepping and boundedness hypothesis of pre-determined control gain by incorporating radial basis function neural network and adaptive technology. The tangent barrier Lyapunov function is employed for time-delay chaotic system to prevent constraint violation. It is proved that the proposed control approach can guarantee asymptotically stable in the sense of uniformly ultimate boundedness without constraint violation. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposedmore » approach is demonstrated on the brushless DC motor example.« less

Managing Multiple Tasks in Complex, Dynamic Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, Michael; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Sketchy planners are designed to achieve goals in realistically complex, time-pressured, and uncertain task environments. However, the ability to manage multiple, potentially interacting tasks in such environments requires extensions to the functionality these systems typically provide. This paper identifies a number of factors affecting how interacting tasks should be prioritized, interrupted, and resumed, and then describes a sketchy planner called APEX that takes account of these factors when managing multiple tasks.

Synthesis of Nonlinear Guidance Laws for Missiles with Uncertain Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-01

and Astronautics, Progress in Astronautics and Aeronautics, Volume 199, 2002. 2. Gurfil , M. Jodorkovsky and M. Guelman, Neoclassical Guidance for...658-666, July-August 2002. 19. P. Gurfil , “Robust Guidance for Electro-Optical Missiles,” IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems, Vol...edition, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 2002. 23. P. Gurfil , ”Zero-Miss Distance Guidance Law Based on Line-of-Sight Rate Measuremenbt Only

Adaptive Fuzzy Output Feedback Control for Switched Nonlinear Systems With Unmodeled Dynamics.

PubMed

Tong, Shaocheng; Li, Yongming

2017-02-01

This paper investigates a robust adaptive fuzzy control stabilization problem for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with arbitrary switching signals that use an observer-based output feedback scheme. The considered switched nonlinear systems possess the unstructured uncertainties, unmodeled dynamics, and without requiring the states being available for measurement. A state observer which is independent of switching signals is designed to solve the problem of unmeasured states. Fuzzy logic systems are used to identify unknown lumped nonlinear functions so that the problem of unstructured uncertainties can be solved. By combining adaptive backstepping design principle and small-gain approach, a novel robust adaptive fuzzy output feedback stabilization control approach is developed. The stability of the closed-loop system is proved via the common Lyapunov function theory and small-gain theorem. Finally, the simulation results are given to demonstrate the validity and performance of the proposed control strategy.

Simulated Annealing-based Optimal Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) Controller Design: A Case Study on Nonlinear Quadcopter Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemirsky, Kristofer Kevin

In this thesis, the history and evolution of rotor aircraft with simulated annealing-based PID application were reviewed and quadcopter dynamics are presented. The dynamics of a quadcopter were then modeled, analyzed, and linearized. A cascaded loop architecture with PID controllers was used to stabilize the plant dynamics, which was improved upon through the application of simulated annealing (SA). A Simulink model was developed to test the controllers and verify the functionality of the proposed control system design. In addition, the data that the Simulink model provided were compared with flight data to present the validity of derived dynamics as a proper mathematical model representing the true dynamics of the quadcopter system. Then, the SA-based global optimization procedure was applied to obtain optimized PID parameters. It was observed that the tuned gains through the SA algorithm produced a better performing PID controller than the original manually tuned one. Next, we investigated the uncertain dynamics of the quadcopter setup. After adding uncertainty to the gyroscopic effects associated with pitch-and-roll rate dynamics, the controllers were shown to be robust against the added uncertainty. A discussion follows to summarize SA-based algorithm PID controller design and performance outcomes. Lastly, future work on SA application on multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) systems is briefly discussed.

Optimized maritime emergency resource allocation under dynamic demand.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenfen; Yan, Xinping; Yang, Jiaqi

2017-01-01

Emergency resource is important for people evacuation and property rescue when accident occurs. The relief efforts could be promoted by a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule in advance. As the marine environment is complicated and changeful, the place, type, severity of maritime accident is uncertain and stochastic, bringing about dynamic demand of emergency resource. Considering dynamic demand, how to make a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule is challenging. The key problem is to determine the optimal stock of emergency resource for supplier centers to improve relief efforts. This paper studies the dynamic demand, and which is defined as a set. Then a maritime emergency resource allocation model with uncertain data is presented. Afterwards, a robust approach is developed and used to make sure that the resource allocation schedule performs well with dynamic demand. Finally, a case study shows that the proposed methodology is feasible in maritime emergency resource allocation. The findings could help emergency manager to schedule the emergency resource allocation more flexibly in terms of dynamic demand.

Optimized maritime emergency resource allocation under dynamic demand

PubMed Central

Yan, Xinping; Yang, Jiaqi

2017-01-01

Emergency resource is important for people evacuation and property rescue when accident occurs. The relief efforts could be promoted by a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule in advance. As the marine environment is complicated and changeful, the place, type, severity of maritime accident is uncertain and stochastic, bringing about dynamic demand of emergency resource. Considering dynamic demand, how to make a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule is challenging. The key problem is to determine the optimal stock of emergency resource for supplier centers to improve relief efforts. This paper studies the dynamic demand, and which is defined as a set. Then a maritime emergency resource allocation model with uncertain data is presented. Afterwards, a robust approach is developed and used to make sure that the resource allocation schedule performs well with dynamic demand. Finally, a case study shows that the proposed methodology is feasible in maritime emergency resource allocation. The findings could help emergency manager to schedule the emergency resource allocation more flexibly in terms of dynamic demand. PMID:29240792

Deterministic physical systems under uncertain initial conditions: the case of maximum entropy applied to projectile motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montecinos, Alejandra; Davis, Sergio; Peralta, Joaquín

2018-07-01

The kinematics and dynamics of deterministic physical systems have been a foundation of our understanding of the world since Galileo and Newton. For real systems, however, uncertainty is largely present via external forces such as friction or lack of precise knowledge about the initial conditions of the system. In this work we focus on the latter case and describe the use of inference methodologies in solving the statistical properties of classical systems subject to uncertain initial conditions. In particular we describe the application of the formalism of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) inference to the problem of projectile motion, given information about the average horizontal range over many realizations. By using MaxEnt we can invert the problem and use the provided information on the average range to reduce the original uncertainty in the initial conditions. Also, additional insight into the initial condition's probabilities, and the projectile path distribution itself, can be achieved based on the value of the average horizontal range. The wide applicability of this procedure, as well as its ease of use, reveals a useful tool with which to revisit a large number of physics problems, from classrooms to frontier research.

Connectivity-Preserving Approach for Distributed Adaptive Synchronized Tracking of Networked Uncertain Nonholonomic Mobile Robots.

PubMed

Yoo, Sung Jin; Park, Bong Seok

2017-09-06

This paper addresses a distributed connectivity-preserving synchronized tracking problem of multiple uncertain nonholonomic mobile robots with limited communication ranges. The information of the time-varying leader robot is assumed to be accessible to only a small fraction of follower robots. The main contribution of this paper is to introduce a new distributed nonlinear error surface for dealing with both the synchronized tracking and the preservation of the initial connectivity patterns among nonholonomic robots. Based on this nonlinear error surface, the recursive design methodology is presented to construct the approximation-based local adaptive tracking scheme at the robot dynamic level. Furthermore, a technical lemma is established to analyze the stability and the connectivity preservation of the total closed-loop control system in the Lyapunov sense. An example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Distributed cooperative H∞ optimal tracking control of MIMO nonlinear multi-agent systems in strict-feedback form via adaptive dynamic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luy, N. T.

2018-04-01

The design of distributed cooperative H∞ optimal controllers for multi-agent systems is a major challenge when the agents' models are uncertain multi-input and multi-output nonlinear systems in strict-feedback form in the presence of external disturbances. In this paper, first, the distributed cooperative H∞ optimal tracking problem is transformed into controlling the cooperative tracking error dynamics in affine form. Second, control schemes and online algorithms are proposed via adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) and the theory of zero-sum differential graphical games. The schemes use only one neural network (NN) for each agent instead of three from ADP to reduce computational complexity as well as avoid choosing initial NN weights for stabilising controllers. It is shown that despite not using knowledge of cooperative internal dynamics, the proposed algorithms not only approximate values to Nash equilibrium but also guarantee all signals, such as the NN weight approximation errors and the cooperative tracking errors in the closed-loop system, to be uniformly ultimately bounded. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is shown by simulation results of an application to wheeled mobile multi-robot systems.

Uncertainty is associated with increased selective attention and sustained stimulus processing.

PubMed

Dieterich, Raoul; Endrass, Tanja; Kathmann, Norbert

2016-06-01

Uncertainty about future threat has been found to be associated with an overestimation of threat probability and is hypothesized to elicit additional allocation of attention. We used event-related potentials to examine uncertainty-related dynamics in attentional allocation, exploiting brain potentials' high temporal resolution and sensitivity to attention. Thirty participants performed a picture-viewing task in which cues indicated the subsequent picture valence. A certain-neutral and a certain-aversive cue accurately predicted subsequent picture valence, whereas an uncertain cue did not. Participants overestimated the effective frequency of aversive pictures following the uncertain cue, both during and after the task, signifying expectancy and covariation biases, and they tended to express lower subjective valences for aversive pictures presented after the uncertain cue. Pictures elicited increased P2 and LPP amplitudes when their valence could not be predicted from the cue. For the LPP, this effect was more pronounced in response to neutral pictures. Uncertainty appears to enhance the engagement of early phasic and sustained attention for uncertainly cued targets. Thus, defensive motivation related to uncertainty about future threat elicits specific attentional dynamics implicating prioritization at various processing stages, especially for nonthreatening stimuli that tend to violate expectations.

State-dependent resource harvesting with lagged information about system states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Fackler, Paul L.; Boomer, G Scott; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Williams, Byron K.; Nichols, James D.; Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

Markov decision processes (MDPs), which involve a temporal sequence of actions conditioned on the state of the managed system, are increasingly being applied in natural resource management. This study focuses on the modification of a traditional MDP to account for those cases in which an action must be chosen after a significant time lag in observing system state, but just prior to a new observation. In order to calculate an optimal decision policy under these conditions, possible actions must be conditioned on the previous observed system state and action taken. We show how to solve these problems when the state transition structure is known and when it is uncertain. Our focus is on the latter case, and we show how actions must be conditioned not only on the previous system state and action, but on the probabilities associated with alternative models of system dynamics. To demonstrate this framework, we calculated and simulated optimal, adaptive policies for MDPs with lagged states for the problem of deciding annual harvest regulations for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the United States. In this particular example, changes in harvest policy induced by the use of lagged information about system state were sufficient to maintain expected management performance (e.g. population size, harvest) even in the face of an uncertain system state at the time of a decision.

Probabilistic assessment of the dynamic interaction between multiple pedestrians and vertical vibrations of footbridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tubino, Federica

2018-03-01

The effect of human-structure interaction in the vertical direction for footbridges is studied based on a probabilistic approach. The bridge is modeled as a continuous dynamic system, while pedestrians are schematized as moving single-degree-of-freedom systems with random dynamic properties. The non-dimensional form of the equations of motion allows us to obtain results that can be applied in a very wide set of cases. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation campaign is performed, varying the main non-dimensional parameters identified, and the mean values and coefficients of variation of the damping ratio and of the non-dimensional natural frequency of the coupled system are reported. The results obtained can be interpreted from two different points of view. If the characterization of pedestrians' equivalent dynamic parameters is assumed as uncertain, as revealed from a current literature review, then the paper provides a range of possible variations of the coupled system damping ratio and natural frequency as a function of pedestrians' parameters. Assuming that a reliable characterization of pedestrians' dynamic parameters is available (which is not the case at present, but could be in the future), the results presented can be adopted to estimate the damping ratio and natural frequency of the coupled footbridge-pedestrian system for a very wide range of real structures.

Robust adaptive controller design for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems using online T-S fuzzy-neural modeling approach.

PubMed

Chien, Yi-Hsing; Wang, Wei-Yen; Leu, Yih-Guang; Lee, Tsu-Tian

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a novel method of online modeling and control via the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy-neural model for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with some kinds of outputs. Although studies about adaptive T-S fuzzy-neural controllers have been made on some nonaffine nonlinear systems, little is known about the more complicated uncertain nonlinear systems. Because the nonlinear functions of the systems are uncertain, traditional T-S fuzzy control methods can model and control them only with great difficulty, if at all. Instead of modeling these uncertain functions directly, we propose that a T-S fuzzy-neural model approximates a so-called virtual linearized system (VLS) of the system, which includes modeling errors and external disturbances. We also propose an online identification algorithm for the VLS and put significant emphasis on robust tracking controller design using an adaptive scheme for the uncertain systems. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems is proven by using strictly positive real Lyapunov theory. The proposed overall scheme guarantees that the outputs of the closed-loop systems asymptotically track the desired output trajectories. To illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method, simulation results are given in this paper.

Adaptive route choice modeling in uncertain traffic networks with real-time information.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study travelers' route choice behavior in uncertain traffic networks : with real-time information. The research is motivated by two observations of the traffic system: 1) : the system is inherently uncertain with r...

Static and dynamic efficiency of irreversible health care investments under alternative payment rules.

PubMed

Levaggi, R; Moretto, M; Pertile, P

2012-01-01

The paper studies the incentive for providers to invest in new health care technologies under alternative payment systems, when the patients' benefits are uncertain. If the reimbursement by the purchaser includes both a variable (per patient) and a lump-sum component, efficiency can be ensured both in the timing of adoption (dynamic) and the intensity of use of the technology (static). If the second instrument is unavailable, a trade-off may emerge between static and dynamic efficiency. In this context, we also discuss how the regulator could use control of the level of uncertainty faced by the provider as an instrument to mitigate the trade-off between static and dynamic efficiency. Finally, we calibrate the model to study a specific technology and estimate the cost of a regulatory failure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconstruction of Attitude Dynamics of Free Falling Units

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Y.; Ivchenko, N.; Tibert, G.; Schlatter, N. M.

2015-09-01

Attitude reconstruction of a free falling sphere for the experiment Multiple Spheres for Characterization of Atmosphere Temperatures (MUSCAT) is studied in this paper. The attitude dynamics is modeled through Euler's rotational equations of motion. To estimate uncertain parameters in this model such as the matrix of inertia and the lever arm for the dynamic pressure with respect to the center of mass, the dynamics reconstruction can be formulated as an optimization problem. The goal is to minimize the deviation between the measurements and the propagation from the system equations. This approach was tested against a couple of flight data sets which correspond to different periods of time. The result is very reasonable compared to the laboratory test. The estimate can be improved further through allowing drag coefficients variable and taking advantage of measurements from a magnetometer in numerical calculation.

New results on finite-time parameter identification and synchronization of uncertain complex dynamical networks with perturbation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hui; Zheng, Mingwen; Li, Shudong; Wang, Weiping

2018-03-01

Some existing papers focused on finite-time parameter identification and synchronization, but provided incomplete theoretical analyses. Such works incorporated conflicting constraints for parameter identification, therefore, the practical significance could not be fully demonstrated. To overcome such limitations, the underlying paper presents new results of parameter identification and synchronization for uncertain complex dynamical networks with impulsive effect and stochastic perturbation based on finite-time stability theory. Novel results of parameter identification and synchronization control criteria are obtained in a finite time by utilizing Lyapunov function and linear matrix inequality respectively. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

Dealing with uncertainty in modeling intermittent water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, A. M.; Rycroft, C.; Wilkening, J.

2015-12-01

Intermittency in urban water supply affects hundreds of millions of people in cities around the world, impacting water quality and infrastructure. Building on previous work to dynamically model the transient flows in water distribution networks undergoing frequent filling and emptying, we now consider the hydraulic implications of uncertain input data. Water distribution networks undergoing intermittent supply are often poorly mapped, and household metering frequently ranges from patchy to nonexistent. In the face of uncertain pipe material, pipe slope, network connectivity, and outflow, we investigate how uncertainty affects dynamical modeling results. We furthermore identify which parameters exert the greatest influence on uncertainty, helping to prioritize data collection.

Distributed Synchronization Control of Multiagent Systems With Unknown Nonlinearities.

PubMed

Su, Shize; Lin, Zongli; Garcia, Alfredo

2016-01-01

This paper revisits the distributed adaptive control problem for synchronization of multiagent systems where the dynamics of the agents are nonlinear, nonidentical, unknown, and subject to external disturbances. Two communication topologies, represented, respectively, by a fixed strongly-connected directed graph and by a switching connected undirected graph, are considered. Under both of these communication topologies, we use distributed neural networks to approximate the uncertain dynamics. Decentralized adaptive control protocols are then constructed to solve the cooperative tracker problem, the problem of synchronization of all follower agents to a leader agent. In particular, we show that, under the proposed decentralized control protocols, the synchronization errors are ultimately bounded, and their ultimate bounds can be reduced arbitrarily by choosing the control parameter appropriately. Simulation study verifies the effectiveness of our proposed protocols.

Future changes driving dietetics workforce supply and demand: future scan 2012-2022.

PubMed

Rhea, Marsha; Bettles, Craig

2012-03-01

The dietetics profession faces many workforce challenges and opportunities to ensure that registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) are at the forefront of health and nutrition. The profession must prepare for new public priorities, changes in population, and the restructuring of how people learn and work, as well as new advances in science and technology. In September 2010, the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force, in consultation with a panel of thought leaders, identified 10 change drivers that affect dietetics workforce supply and demand. This future scan report provides an overview of eight of these drivers. Two change drivers-health care reform and population risk factors/nutrition initiatives-are addressed in separate technical articles. A change matrix has been included at the end of this executive summary. The matrix contains a summary of each change driver and its expected impact and is designed to present the drivers in the context of a larger, dynamic system of change in the dietetics profession. The impact of any of these change drivers individually and collectively in a dynamic system is uncertain. The outcome of any change driver is also uncertain. The dietetics profession faces many choices within each change driver to meet the workforce challenges and seize the opportunities for leadership and growth. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptive neural output-feedback control for nonstrict-feedback time-delay fractional-order systems with output constraints and actuator nonlinearities.

PubMed

Zouari, Farouk; Ibeas, Asier; Boulkroune, Abdesselem; Cao, Jinde; Mehdi Arefi, Mohammad

2018-06-01

This study addresses the issue of the adaptive output tracking control for a category of uncertain nonstrict-feedback delayed incommensurate fractional-order systems in the presence of nonaffine structures, unmeasured pseudo-states, unknown control directions, unknown actuator nonlinearities and output constraints. Firstly, the mean value theorem and the Gaussian error function are introduced to eliminate the difficulties that arise from the nonaffine structures and the unknown actuator nonlinearities, respectively. Secondly, the immeasurable tracking error variables are suitably estimated by constructing a fractional-order linear observer. Thirdly, the neural network, the Razumikhin Lemma, the variable separation approach, and the smooth Nussbaum-type function are used to deal with the uncertain nonlinear dynamics, the unknown time-varying delays, the nonstrict feedback and the unknown control directions, respectively. Fourthly, asymmetric barrier Lyapunov functions are employed to overcome the violation of the output constraints and to tune online the parameters of the adaptive neural controller. Through rigorous analysis, it is proved that the boundedness of all variables in the closed-loop system and the semi global asymptotic tracking are ensured without transgression of the constraints. The principal contributions of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) based on Caputo's definitions and new lemmas, methods concerning the controllability, observability and stability analysis of integer-order systems are extended to fractional-order ones, (2) the output tracking objective for a relatively large class of uncertain systems is achieved with a simple controller and less tuning parameters. Finally, computer-simulation studies from the robotic field are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-delayed chameleon: Analysis, synchronization and FPGA implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, Karthikeyan; Jafari, Sajad; Laarem, Guessas

2017-12-01

In this paper we report a time-delayed chameleon-like chaotic system which can belong to different families of chaotic attractors depending on the choices of parameters. Such a characteristic of self-excited and hidden chaotic flows in a simple 3D system with time delay has not been reported earlier. Dynamic analysis of the proposed time-delayed systems are analysed in time-delay space and parameter space. A novel adaptive modified functional projective lag synchronization algorithm is derived for synchronizing identical time-delayed chameleon systems with uncertain parameters. The proposed time-delayed systems and the synchronization algorithm with controllers and parameter estimates are then implemented in FPGA using hardware-software co-simulation and the results are presented.

Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-09-01

Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

Polynomial chaos expansion with random and fuzzy variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquelin, E.; Friswell, M. I.; Adhikari, S.; Dessombz, O.; Sinou, J.-J.

2016-06-01

A dynamical uncertain system is studied in this paper. Two kinds of uncertainties are addressed, where the uncertain parameters are described through random variables and/or fuzzy variables. A general framework is proposed to deal with both kinds of uncertainty using a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). It is shown that fuzzy variables may be expanded in terms of polynomial chaos when Legendre polynomials are used. The components of the PCE are a solution of an equation that does not depend on the nature of uncertainty. Once this equation is solved, the post-processing of the data gives the moments of the random response when the uncertainties are random or gives the response interval when the variables are fuzzy. With the PCE approach, it is also possible to deal with mixed uncertainty, when some parameters are random and others are fuzzy. The results provide a fuzzy description of the response statistical moments.

Extrapolating dynamic leidenfrost principles to metallic nanodroplets on asymmetrically textured surfaces

DOE PAGES

Horne, Joseph E.; Lavrik, Nickolay V.; Terrones, Humberto; ...

2015-06-30

In an effort to enhance our knowledge on how to control the movement of metallic nanodroplets, here we have used classical molecular dynamics simulations to investigate whether Cu nanostructures deposited on nanopillared substrates can be made to jump at desired angles. We find that such control is possible, especially for Cu nanostructures that are symmetric; for asymmetric nanostructures, however, control is more uncertain. The work presented here borrows ideas from two seemingly different fields, metallic droplets and water droplets in the dynamic Leidenfrost regime. Despite the differences in the respective systems, we find common ground in their behavior on nanostructuredmore » surfaces. As a result, we suggest that the ongoing research in Leidenfrost droplets is a fertile area for scientists working on metallic nanodroplets.« less

A linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shieh, L. S.; Sunkel, J. W.; Wang, Y. J.

1990-01-01

This paper presents a linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems. The uncertain systems under consideration are described by state equations with the presence of time-varying unknown-but-bounded uncertainty matrices. The method is based on linear quadratic regulator (LQR) theory and Liapunov stability theory. The robust stabilizing control law for a given uncertain system can be easily constructed from the symmetric positive-definite solution of the associated augmented Riccati equation. The proposed approach can be applied to matched and/or mismatched systems with uncertainty matrices in which only their matrix norms are bounded by some prescribed values and/or their entries are bounded by some prescribed constraint sets. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results.

Modeling Day-to-day Flow Dynamics on Degradable Transport Network

PubMed Central

Gao, Bo; Zhang, Ronghui; Lou, Xiaoming

2016-01-01

Stochastic link capacity degradations are common phenomena in transport network which can cause travel time variations and further can affect travelers’ daily route choice behaviors. This paper formulates a deterministic dynamic model, to capture the day-to-day (DTD) flow evolution process in the presence of degraded link capacity degradations. The aggregated network flow dynamics are driven by travelers’ study of uncertain travel time and their choice of risky routes. This paper applies the exponential-smoothing filter to describe travelers’ study of travel time variations, and meanwhile formulates risk attitude parameter updating equation to reflect travelers’ endogenous risk attitude evolution schema. In addition, this paper conducts theoretical analyses to investigate several significant mathematical characteristics implied in the proposed DTD model, including fixed point existence, uniqueness, stability and irreversibility. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the DTD model and verify some important dynamic system properties. PMID:27959903

Optimal Decision Making in a Class of Uncertain Systems Based on Uncertain Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bubnicki, Z.

2006-06-01

The paper is concerned with a class of uncertain systems described by relational knowledge representations with unknown parameters which are assumed to be values of uncertain variables characterized by a user in the form of certainty distributions. The first part presents the basic optimization problem consisting in finding the decision maximizing the certainty index that the requirement given by a user is satisfied. The main part is devoted to the description of the optimization problem with the given certainty threshold. It is shown how the approach presented in the paper may be applied to some problems for anticipatory systems.

Kernel-based least squares policy iteration for reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Xu, Xin; Hu, Dewen; Lu, Xicheng

2007-07-01

In this paper, we present a kernel-based least squares policy iteration (KLSPI) algorithm for reinforcement learning (RL) in large or continuous state spaces, which can be used to realize adaptive feedback control of uncertain dynamic systems. By using KLSPI, near-optimal control policies can be obtained without much a priori knowledge on dynamic models of control plants. In KLSPI, Mercer kernels are used in the policy evaluation of a policy iteration process, where a new kernel-based least squares temporal-difference algorithm called KLSTD-Q is proposed for efficient policy evaluation. To keep the sparsity and improve the generalization ability of KLSTD-Q solutions, a kernel sparsification procedure based on approximate linear dependency (ALD) is performed. Compared to the previous works on approximate RL methods, KLSPI makes two progresses to eliminate the main difficulties of existing results. One is the better convergence and (near) optimality guarantee by using the KLSTD-Q algorithm for policy evaluation with high precision. The other is the automatic feature selection using the ALD-based kernel sparsification. Therefore, the KLSPI algorithm provides a general RL method with generalization performance and convergence guarantee for large-scale Markov decision problems (MDPs). Experimental results on a typical RL task for a stochastic chain problem demonstrate that KLSPI can consistently achieve better learning efficiency and policy quality than the previous least squares policy iteration (LSPI) algorithm. Furthermore, the KLSPI method was also evaluated on two nonlinear feedback control problems, including a ship heading control problem and the swing up control of a double-link underactuated pendulum called acrobot. Simulation results illustrate that the proposed method can optimize controller performance using little a priori information of uncertain dynamic systems. It is also demonstrated that KLSPI can be applied to online learning control by incorporating an initial controller to ensure online performance.

Adaptive robust control of a class of non-affine variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines with unmodeled dynamics.

PubMed

Bagheri, Pedram; Sun, Qiao

2016-07-01

In this paper, a novel synthesis of Nussbaum-type functions, and an adaptive radial-basis function neural network is proposed to design controllers for variable-speed, variable-pitch wind turbines. Dynamic equations of the wind turbine are highly nonlinear, uncertain, and affected by unknown disturbance sources. Furthermore, the dynamic equations are non-affine with respect to the pitch angle, which is a control input. To address these problems, a Nussbaum-type function, along with a dynamic control law are adopted to resolve the non-affine nature of the equations. Moreover, an adaptive radial-basis function neural network is designed to approximate non-parametric uncertainties. Further, the closed-loop system is made robust to unknown disturbance sources, where no prior knowledge of disturbance bound is assumed in advance. Finally, the Lyapunov stability analysis is conducted to show the stability of the entire closed-loop system. In order to verify analytical results, a simulation is presented and the results are compared to both a PI and an existing adaptive controllers. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theory of chaotic orbital variations confirmed by Cretaceous geological evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Chao; Meyers, Stephen R.; Sageman, Bradley B.

2017-02-01

Variations in the Earth’s orbit and spin vector are a primary control on insolation and climate; their recognition in the geological record has revolutionized our understanding of palaeoclimate dynamics, and has catalysed improvements in the accuracy and precision of the geological timescale. Yet the secular evolution of the planetary orbits beyond 50 million years ago remains highly uncertain, and the chaotic dynamical nature of the Solar System predicted by theoretical models has yet to be rigorously confirmed by well constrained (radioisotopically calibrated and anchored) geological data. Here we present geological evidence for a chaotic resonance transition associated with interactions between the orbits of Mars and the Earth, using an integrated radioisotopic and astronomical timescale from the Cretaceous Western Interior Basin of what is now North America. This analysis confirms the predicted chaotic dynamical behaviour of the Solar System, and provides a constraint for refining numerical solutions for insolation, which will enable a more precise and accurate geological timescale to be produced.

Theory of chaotic orbital variations confirmed by Cretaceous geological evidence.

PubMed

Ma, Chao; Meyers, Stephen R; Sageman, Bradley B

2017-02-22

Variations in the Earth's orbit and spin vector are a primary control on insolation and climate; their recognition in the geological record has revolutionized our understanding of palaeoclimate dynamics, and has catalysed improvements in the accuracy and precision of the geological timescale. Yet the secular evolution of the planetary orbits beyond 50 million years ago remains highly uncertain, and the chaotic dynamical nature of the Solar System predicted by theoretical models has yet to be rigorously confirmed by well constrained (radioisotopically calibrated and anchored) geological data. Here we present geological evidence for a chaotic resonance transition associated with interactions between the orbits of Mars and the Earth, using an integrated radioisotopic and astronomical timescale from the Cretaceous Western Interior Basin of what is now North America. This analysis confirms the predicted chaotic dynamical behaviour of the Solar System, and provides a constraint for refining numerical solutions for insolation, which will enable a more precise and accurate geological timescale to be produced.

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems. Part 1: Theoretical Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-07

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework Fernando Paganini * John Doyle 1 December 7, 1994 Abst rac t This paper...Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...model and a number of constraints relevant to the analysis problem under consideration. In Part I of this paper we propose a theoretical framework which

Research of Uncertainty Reasoning in Pineapple Disease Identification System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Liqun; Fan, Haifeng

In order to deal with the uncertainty of evidences mostly existing in pineapple disease identification system, a reasoning model based on evidence credibility factor was established. The uncertainty reasoning method is discussed,including: uncertain representation of knowledge, uncertain representation of rules, uncertain representation of multi-evidences and update of reasoning rules. The reasoning can fully reflect the uncertainty in disease identification and reduce the influence of subjective factors on the accuracy of the system.

Uncertain behaviours of integrated circuits improve computational performance.

PubMed

Yoshimura, Chihiro; Yamaoka, Masanao; Hayashi, Masato; Okuyama, Takuya; Aoki, Hidetaka; Kawarabayashi, Ken-ichi; Mizuno, Hiroyuki

2015-11-20

Improvements to the performance of conventional computers have mainly been achieved through semiconductor scaling; however, scaling is reaching its limitations. Natural phenomena, such as quantum superposition and stochastic resonance, have been introduced into new computing paradigms to improve performance beyond these limitations. Here, we explain that the uncertain behaviours of devices due to semiconductor scaling can improve the performance of computers. We prototyped an integrated circuit by performing a ground-state search of the Ising model. The bit errors of memory cell devices holding the current state of search occur probabilistically by inserting fluctuations into dynamic device characteristics, which will be actualised in the future to the chip. As a result, we observed more improvements in solution accuracy than that without fluctuations. Although the uncertain behaviours of devices had been intended to be eliminated in conventional devices, we demonstrate that uncertain behaviours has become the key to improving computational performance.

Dynamic clustering detection through multi-valued descriptors of dermoscopic images.

PubMed

Cozza, Valentina; Guarracino, Maria Rosario; Maddalena, Lucia; Baroni, Adone

2011-09-10

This paper introduces a dynamic clustering methodology based on multi-valued descriptors of dermoscopic images. The main idea is to support medical diagnosis to decide if pigmented skin lesions belonging to an uncertain set are nearer to malignant melanoma or to benign nevi. Melanoma is the most deadly skin cancer, and early diagnosis is a current challenge for clinicians. Most data analysis algorithms for skin lesions discrimination focus on segmentation and extraction of features of categorical or numerical type. As an alternative approach, this paper introduces two new concepts: first, it considers multi-valued data that scalar variables not only describe but also intervals or histogram variables; second, it introduces a dynamic clustering method based on Wasserstein distance to compare multi-valued data. The overall strategy of analysis can be summarized into the following steps: first, a segmentation of dermoscopic images allows to identify a set of multi-valued descriptors; second, we performed a discriminant analysis on a set of images where there is an a priori classification so that it is possible to detect which features discriminate the benign and malignant lesions; and third, we performed the proposed dynamic clustering method on the uncertain cases, which need to be associated to one of the two previously mentioned groups. Results based on clinical data show that the grading of specific descriptors associated to dermoscopic characteristics provides a novel way to characterize uncertain lesions that can help the dermatologist's diagnosis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using Dynamic Time Warping and Data Forensics to Examine Tradeoffs among Land-Energy-Water Networks Across the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McManamay, R.; Allen, M. R.; Piburn, J.; Sanyal, J.; Stewart, R.; Bhaduri, B. L.

2017-12-01

Characterizing interdependencies among land-energy-water sectors, their vulnerabilities, and tipping points, is challenging, especially if all sectors are simultaneously considered. Because such holistic system behavior is uncertain, largely unmodeled, and in need of testable hypotheses of system drivers, these dynamics are conducive to exploratory analytics of spatiotemporal patterns, powered by tools, such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). Here, we conduct a retrospective analysis (1950 - 2010) of temporal trends in land use, energy use, and water use within US counties to identify commonalities in resource consumption and adaptation strategies to resource limitations. We combine existing and derived data from statistical downscaling to synthesize a temporally comprehensive land-energy-water dataset at the US county level and apply DTW and subsequent hierarchical clustering to examine similar temporal trends in resource typologies for land, energy, and water sectors. As expected, we observed tradeoffs among water uses (e.g., public supply vs irrigation) and land uses (e.g., urban vs ag). Strong associations between clusters amongst sectors reveal tight system interdependencies, whereas weak associations suggest unique behaviors and potential for human adaptations towards disruptive technologies and less resource-dependent population growth. Our framework is useful for exploring complex human-environmental system dynamics and generating hypotheses to guide subsequent energy-water-nexus research.

Sampling-based real-time motion planning under state uncertainty for autonomous micro-aerial vehicles in GPS-denied environments.

PubMed

Li, Dachuan; Li, Qing; Cheng, Nong; Song, Jingyan

2014-11-18

This paper presents a real-time motion planning approach for autonomous vehicles with complex dynamics and state uncertainty. The approach is motivated by the motion planning problem for autonomous vehicles navigating in GPS-denied dynamic environments, which involves non-linear and/or non-holonomic vehicle dynamics, incomplete state estimates, and constraints imposed by uncertain and cluttered environments. To address the above motion planning problem, we propose an extension of the closed-loop rapid belief trees, the closed-loop random belief trees (CL-RBT), which incorporates predictions of the position estimation uncertainty, using a factored form of the covariance provided by the Kalman filter-based estimator. The proposed motion planner operates by incrementally constructing a tree of dynamically feasible trajectories using the closed-loop prediction, while selecting candidate paths with low uncertainty using efficient covariance update and propagation. The algorithm can operate in real-time, continuously providing the controller with feasible paths for execution, enabling the vehicle to account for dynamic and uncertain environments. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can generate feasible trajectories that reduce the state estimation uncertainty, while handling complex vehicle dynamics and environment constraints.

Sampling-Based Real-Time Motion Planning under State Uncertainty for Autonomous Micro-Aerial Vehicles in GPS-Denied Environments

PubMed Central

Li, Dachuan; Li, Qing; Cheng, Nong; Song, Jingyan

2014-01-01

This paper presents a real-time motion planning approach for autonomous vehicles with complex dynamics and state uncertainty. The approach is motivated by the motion planning problem for autonomous vehicles navigating in GPS-denied dynamic environments, which involves non-linear and/or non-holonomic vehicle dynamics, incomplete state estimates, and constraints imposed by uncertain and cluttered environments. To address the above motion planning problem, we propose an extension of the closed-loop rapid belief trees, the closed-loop random belief trees (CL-RBT), which incorporates predictions of the position estimation uncertainty, using a factored form of the covariance provided by the Kalman filter-based estimator. The proposed motion planner operates by incrementally constructing a tree of dynamically feasible trajectories using the closed-loop prediction, while selecting candidate paths with low uncertainty using efficient covariance update and propagation. The algorithm can operate in real-time, continuously providing the controller with feasible paths for execution, enabling the vehicle to account for dynamic and uncertain environments. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can generate feasible trajectories that reduce the state estimation uncertainty, while handling complex vehicle dynamics and environment constraints. PMID:25412217

Adaptive NN Control Using Integral Barrier Lyapunov Functionals for Uncertain Nonlinear Block-Triangular Constraint Systems.

PubMed

Liu, Yan-Jun; Tong, Shaocheng; Chen, C L Philip; Li, Dong-Juan

2017-11-01

A neural network (NN) adaptive control design problem is addressed for a class of uncertain multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear systems in block-triangular form. The considered systems contain uncertainty dynamics and their states are enforced to subject to bounded constraints as well as the couplings among various inputs and outputs are inserted in each subsystem. To stabilize this class of systems, a novel adaptive control strategy is constructively framed by using the backstepping design technique and NNs. The novel integral barrier Lyapunov functionals (BLFs) are employed to overcome the violation of the full state constraints. The proposed strategy can not only guarantee the boundedness of the closed-loop system and the outputs are driven to follow the reference signals, but also can ensure all the states to remain in the predefined compact sets. Moreover, the transformed constraints on the errors are used in the previous BLF, and accordingly it is required to determine clearly the bounds of the virtual controllers. Thus, it can relax the conservative limitations in the traditional BLF-based controls for the full state constraints. This conservatism can be solved in this paper and it is for the first time to control this class of MIMO systems with the full state constraints. The performance of the proposed control strategy can be verified through a simulation example.

Forecasting the shortage of neurosurgeons in Iran using a system dynamics model approach.

PubMed

Rafiei, Sima; Daneshvaran, Arman; Abdollahzade, Sina

2018-01-01

Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus, in an uncertain environment, long-term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. This study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modeling. System dynamic modeling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables along with supply model-incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases and were analyzed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics, and disease prevalence during the time. It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization, and medical capacity of the region. Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

Intelligent robust control for uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems and its application to robotic systems.

PubMed

Chang, Yeong-Chan

2005-12-01

This paper addresses the problem of designing adaptive fuzzy-based (or neural network-based) robust controls for a large class of uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems. This class of systems can be perturbed by plant uncertainties, unmodeled perturbations, and external disturbances. Nonlinear H(infinity) control technique incorporated with adaptive control technique and VSC technique is employed to construct the intelligent robust stabilization controller such that an H(infinity) control is achieved. The problem of the robust tracking control design for uncertain robotic systems is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed robust stabilization control scheme. Therefore, an intelligent robust tracking controller for uncertain robotic systems in the presence of high-degree uncertainties can easily be implemented. Its solution requires only to solve a linear algebraic matrix inequality and a satisfactorily transient and asymptotical tracking performance is guaranteed. A simulation example is made to confirm the performance of the developed control algorithms.

Dynamics and resilience in interdependent systems at the energy-water-land nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, R. H.

2017-12-01

Water resources management is already complex enough, given fragmented landscapes and institutions and uncertain climate and environmental conditions. But given the interdependence of water, energy, and land systems (the "energy-water-land nexus"), integrated approaches to cross-sectoral modeling and decision making that account for the interdependencies are increasingly important. This presentation will describe the context of the broader institutional and policy dimensions (e.g., cross-Federal research agencies) and scientific challenges of bringing the water, energy, and land research communities together (e.g., different epistemologies, data, modeling, and decision support methods). The speaker will describe efforts to develop a shared community of practice to improve research collaboration and provide insights on coupled system resilience.

The 32nd CDC: System identification using interval dynamic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keel, L. H.; Lew, J. S.; Bhattacharyya, S. P.

1992-01-01

Motivated by the recent explosive development of results in the area of parametric robust control, a new technique to identify a family of uncertain systems is identified. The new technique takes the frequency domain input and output data obtained from experimental test signals and produces an 'interval transfer function' that contains the complete frequency domain behavior with respect to the test signals. This interval transfer function is one of the key concepts in the parametric robust control approach and identification with such an interval model allows one to predict the worst case performance and stability margins using recent results on interval systems. The algorithm is illustrated by applying it to an 18 bay Mini-Mast truss structure.

DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHTWEIGHT INSTRUMENTATION FOR MEASUREMENT OF LONG-LIVED TRACE GASES

EPA Science Inventory

The ozone budget of the upper troposphere is highly uncertain with respect to both chemistry and dynamical effects. Extensive data in the 6 to 12 km region of the atmosphere is needed to constrain the relative roles of various dynamical processes, such as convection and int...

Quantitative local analysis of nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topcu, Ufuk

This thesis investigates quantitative methods for local robustness and performance analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems with polynomial vector fields. We propose measures to quantify systems' robustness against uncertainties in initial conditions (regions-of-attraction) and external disturbances (local reachability/gain analysis). S-procedure and sum-of-squares relaxations are used to translate Lyapunov-type characterizations to sum-of-squares optimization problems. These problems are typically bilinear/nonconvex (due to local analysis rather than global) and their size grows rapidly with state/uncertainty space dimension. Our approach is based on exploiting system theoretic interpretations of these optimization problems to reduce their complexity. We propose a methodology incorporating simulation data in formal proof construction enabling more reliable and efficient search for robustness and performance certificates compared to the direct use of general purpose solvers. This technique is adapted both to region-of-attraction and reachability analysis. We extend the analysis to uncertain systems by taking an intentionally simplistic and potentially conservative route, namely employing parameter-independent rather than parameter-dependent certificates. The conservatism is simply reduced by a branch-and-hound type refinement procedure. The main thrust of these methods is their suitability for parallel computing achieved by decomposing otherwise challenging problems into relatively tractable smaller ones. We demonstrate proposed methods on several small/medium size examples in each chapter and apply each method to a benchmark example with an uncertain short period pitch axis model of an aircraft. Additional practical issues leading to a more rigorous basis for the proposed methodology as well as promising further research topics are also addressed. We show that stability of linearized dynamics is not only necessary but also sufficient for the feasibility of the formulations in region-of-attraction analysis. Furthermore, we generalize an upper bound refinement procedure in local reachability/gain analysis which effectively generates non-polynomial certificates from polynomial ones. Finally, broader applicability of optimization-based tools stringently depends on the availability of scalable/hierarchial algorithms. As an initial step toward this direction, we propose a local small-gain theorem and apply to stability region analysis in the presence of unmodeled dynamics.

Dynamic Energy Management System for a Smart Microgrid.

PubMed

Venayagamoorthy, Ganesh Kumar; Sharma, Ratnesh K; Gautam, Prajwal K; Ahmadi, Afshin

2016-08-01

This paper presents the development of an intelligent dynamic energy management system (I-DEMS) for a smart microgrid. An evolutionary adaptive dynamic programming and reinforcement learning framework is introduced for evolving the I-DEMS online. The I-DEMS is an optimal or near-optimal DEMS capable of performing grid-connected and islanded microgrid operations. The primary sources of energy are sustainable, green, and environmentally friendly renewable energy systems (RESs), e.g., wind and solar; however, these forms of energy are uncertain and nondispatchable. Backup battery energy storage and thermal generation were used to overcome these challenges. Using the I-DEMS to schedule dispatches allowed the RESs and energy storage devices to be utilized to their maximum in order to supply the critical load at all times. Based on the microgrid's system states, the I-DEMS generates energy dispatch control signals, while a forward-looking network evaluates the dispatched control signals over time. Typical results are presented for varying generation and load profiles, and the performance of I-DEMS is compared with that of a decision tree approach-based DEMS (D-DEMS). The robust performance of the I-DEMS was illustrated by examining microgrid operations under different battery energy storage conditions.

Event-Triggered Distributed Control of Nonlinear Interconnected Systems Using Online Reinforcement Learning With Exploration.

PubMed

Narayanan, Vignesh; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2017-09-07

In this paper, a distributed control scheme for an interconnected system composed of uncertain input affine nonlinear subsystems with event triggered state feedback is presented by using a novel hybrid learning scheme-based approximate dynamic programming with online exploration. First, an approximate solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is generated with event sampled neural network (NN) approximation and subsequently, a near optimal control policy for each subsystem is derived. Artificial NNs are utilized as function approximators to develop a suite of identifiers and learn the dynamics of each subsystem. The NN weight tuning rules for the identifier and event-triggering condition are derived using Lyapunov stability theory. Taking into account, the effects of NN approximation of system dynamics and boot-strapping, a novel NN weight update is presented to approximate the optimal value function. Finally, a novel strategy to incorporate exploration in online control framework, using identifiers, is introduced to reduce the overall cost at the expense of additional computations during the initial online learning phase. System states and the NN weight estimation errors are regulated and local uniformly ultimately bounded results are achieved. The analytical results are substantiated using simulation studies.

Vector Observation-Aided/Attitude-Rate Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshman, Yaakov; Markley, F. Landis

1997-01-01

A sequential filtering algorithm is presented for attitude and attitude-rate estimation from Global Positioning System (GPS) differential carrier phase measurements. A third-order, minimal-parameter method for solving the attitude matrix kinematic equation is used to parameterize the filter's state, which renders the resulting estimator computationally efficient. Borrowing from tracking theory concepts, the angular acceleration is modeled as an exponentially autocorrelated stochastic process, thus avoiding the use of the uncertain spacecraft dynamic model. The new formulation facilitates the use of aiding vector observations in a unified filtering algorithm, which can enhance the method's robustness and accuracy. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the method.

Flight Test of L1 Adaptive Control Law: Offset Landings and Large Flight Envelope Modeling Work

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Irene M.; Xargay, Enric; Cao, Chengyu; Hovakimyan, Naira

2011-01-01

This paper presents new results of a flight test of the L1 adaptive control architecture designed to directly compensate for significant uncertain cross-coupling in nonlinear systems. The flight test was conducted on the subscale turbine powered Generic Transport Model that is an integral part of the Airborne Subscale Transport Aircraft Research system at the NASA Langley Research Center. The results presented include control law evaluation for piloted offset landing tasks as well as results in support of nonlinear aerodynamic modeling and real-time dynamic modeling of the departure-prone edges of the flight envelope.

A gaseous metal disk around a white dwarf.

PubMed

Gänsicke, B T; Marsh, T R; Southworth, J; Rebassa-Mansergas, A

2006-12-22

The destiny of planetary systems through the late evolution of their host stars is very uncertain. We report a metal-rich gas disk around a moderately hot and young white dwarf. A dynamical model of the double-peaked emission lines constrains the outer disk radius to just 1.2 solar radii. The likely origin of the disk is a tidally disrupted asteroid, which has been destabilized from its initial orbit at a distance of more than 1000 solar radii by the interaction with a relatively massive planetesimal object or a planet. The white dwarf mass of 0.77 solar mass implies that planetary systems may form around high-mass stars.

Strategic Defense Initiative Organization adaptive structures program overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obal, Michael; Sater, Janet M.

In the currently envisioned architecture none of the Strategic Defense System (SDS) elements to be deployed will receive scheduled maintenance. Assessments of performance capability due to changes caused by the uncertain effects of environments will be difficult, at best. In addition, the system will have limited ability to adjust in order to maintain its required performance levels. The Materials and Structures Office of the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) has begun to address solutions to these potential difficulties via an adaptive structures technology program that combines health and environment monitoring with static and dynamic structural control. Conceivable system benefits include improved target tracking and hit-to-kill performance, on-orbit system health monitoring and reporting, and threat attack warning and assessment.

New control concepts for uncertain water resources systems: 1. Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakakos, Aris P.; Yao, Huaming

1993-06-01

A major complicating factor in water resources systems management is handling unknown inputs. Stochastic optimization provides a sound mathematical framework but requires that enough data exist to develop statistical input representations. In cases where data records are insufficient (e.g., extreme events) or atypical of future input realizations, stochastic methods are inadequate. This article presents a control approach where input variables are only expected to belong in certain sets. The objective is to determine sets of admissible control actions guaranteeing that the system will remain within desirable bounds. The solution is based on dynamic programming and derived for the case where all sets are convex polyhedra. A companion paper (Yao and Georgakakos, this issue) addresses specific applications and problems in relation to reservoir system management.

Uncertainties in building a strategic defense.

PubMed

Zraket, C A

1987-03-27

Building a strategic defense against nuclear ballistic missiles involves complex and uncertain functional, spatial, and temporal relations. Such a defensive system would evolve and grow over decades. It is too complex, dynamic, and interactive to be fully understood initially by design, analysis, and experiments. Uncertainties exist in the formulation of requirements and in the research and design of a defense architecture that can be implemented incrementally and be fully tested to operate reliably. The analysis and measurement of system survivability, performance, and cost-effectiveness are critical to this process. Similar complexities exist for an adversary's system that would suppress or use countermeasures against a missile defense. Problems and opportunities posed by these relations are described, with emphasis on the unique characteristics and vulnerabilities of space-based systems.

Sliding Mode Approaches for Robust Control, State Estimation, Secure Communication, and Fault Diagnosis in Nuclear Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablay, Gunyaz

Using traditional control methods for controller design, parameter estimation and fault diagnosis may lead to poor results with nuclear systems in practice because of approximations and uncertainties in the system models used, possibly resulting in unexpected plant unavailability. This experience has led to an interest in development of robust control, estimation and fault diagnosis methods. One particularly robust approach is the sliding mode control methodology. Sliding mode approaches have been of great interest and importance in industry and engineering in the recent decades due to their potential for producing economic, safe and reliable designs. In order to utilize these advantages, sliding mode approaches are implemented for robust control, state estimation, secure communication and fault diagnosis in nuclear plant systems. In addition, a sliding mode output observer is developed for fault diagnosis in dynamical systems. To validate the effectiveness of the methodologies, several nuclear plant system models are considered for applications, including point reactor kinetics, xenon concentration dynamics, an uncertain pressurizer model, a U-tube steam generator model and a coupled nonlinear nuclear reactor model.

Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

John W. Coulston; David N. Wear; James M. Vose

2015-01-01

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern...

A nonlinear control method based on ANFIS and multiple models for a class of SISO nonlinear systems and its application.

PubMed

Zhang, Yajun; Chai, Tianyou; Wang, Hong

2011-11-01

This paper presents a novel nonlinear control strategy for a class of uncertain single-input and single-output discrete-time nonlinear systems with unstable zero-dynamics. The proposed method combines adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with multiple models, where a linear robust controller, an ANFIS-based nonlinear controller and a switching mechanism are integrated using multiple models technique. It has been shown that the linear controller can ensure the boundedness of the input and output signals and the nonlinear controller can improve the dynamic performance of the closed loop system. Moreover, it has also been shown that the use of the switching mechanism can simultaneously guarantee the closed loop stability and improve its performance. As a result, the controller has the following three outstanding features compared with existing control strategies. First, this method relaxes the assumption of commonly-used uniform boundedness on the unmodeled dynamics and thus enhances its applicability. Second, since ANFIS is used to estimate and compensate the effect caused by the unmodeled dynamics, the convergence rate of neural network learning has been increased. Third, a "one-to-one mapping" technique is adapted to guarantee the universal approximation property of ANFIS. The proposed controller is applied to a numerical example and a pulverizing process of an alumina sintering system, respectively, where its effectiveness has been justified.

Robust autoassociative memory with coupled networks of Kuramoto-type oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heger, Daniel; Krischer, Katharina

2016-08-01

Uncertain recognition success, unfavorable scaling of connection complexity, or dependence on complex external input impair the usefulness of current oscillatory neural networks for pattern recognition or restrict technical realizations to small networks. We propose a network architecture of coupled oscillators for pattern recognition which shows none of the mentioned flaws. Furthermore we illustrate the recognition process with simulation results and analyze the dynamics analytically: Possible output patterns are isolated attractors of the system. Additionally, simple criteria for recognition success are derived from a lower bound on the basins of attraction.

Dynamic model updating based on strain mode shape and natural frequency using hybrid pattern search technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Ning; Yang, Zhichun; Wang, Le; Ouyang, Yan; Zhang, Xinping

2018-05-01

Aiming at providing a precise dynamic structural finite element (FE) model for dynamic strength evaluation in addition to dynamic analysis. A dynamic FE model updating method is presented to correct the uncertain parameters of the FE model of a structure using strain mode shapes and natural frequencies. The strain mode shape, which is sensitive to local changes in structure, is used instead of the displacement mode for enhancing model updating. The coordinate strain modal assurance criterion is developed to evaluate the correlation level at each coordinate over the experimental and the analytical strain mode shapes. Moreover, the natural frequencies which provide the global information of the structure are used to guarantee the accuracy of modal properties of the global model. Then, the weighted summation of the natural frequency residual and the coordinate strain modal assurance criterion residual is used as the objective function in the proposed dynamic FE model updating procedure. The hybrid genetic/pattern-search optimization algorithm is adopted to perform the dynamic FE model updating procedure. Numerical simulation and model updating experiment for a clamped-clamped beam are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the present method. The results show that the proposed method can be used to update the uncertain parameters with good robustness. And the updated dynamic FE model of the beam structure, which can correctly predict both the natural frequencies and the local dynamic strains, is reliable for the following dynamic analysis and dynamic strength evaluation.

Online Recorded Data-Based Composite Neural Control of Strict-Feedback Systems With Application to Hypersonic Flight Dynamics.

PubMed

Xu, Bin; Yang, Daipeng; Shi, Zhongke; Pan, Yongping; Chen, Badong; Sun, Fuchun

2017-09-25

This paper investigates the online recorded data-based composite neural control of uncertain strict-feedback systems using the backstepping framework. In each step of the virtual control design, neural network (NN) is employed for uncertainty approximation. In previous works, most designs are directly toward system stability ignoring the fact how the NN is working as an approximator. In this paper, to enhance the learning ability, a novel prediction error signal is constructed to provide additional correction information for NN weight update using online recorded data. In this way, the neural approximation precision is highly improved, and the convergence speed can be faster. Furthermore, the sliding mode differentiator is employed to approximate the derivative of the virtual control signal, and thus, the complex analysis of the backstepping design can be avoided. The closed-loop stability is rigorously established, and the boundedness of the tracking error can be guaranteed. Through simulation of hypersonic flight dynamics, the proposed approach exhibits better tracking performance.

Robust Hinfinity position control synthesis of an electro-hydraulic servo system.

PubMed

Milić, Vladimir; Situm, Zeljko; Essert, Mario

2010-10-01

This paper focuses on the use of the techniques based on linear matrix inequalities for robust H(infinity) position control synthesis of an electro-hydraulic servo system. A nonlinear dynamic model of the hydraulic cylindrical actuator with a proportional valve has been developed. For the purpose of the feedback control an uncertain linearized mathematical model of the system has been derived. The structured (parametric) perturbations in the electro-hydraulic coefficients are taken into account. H(infinity) controller extended with an integral action is proposed. To estimate internal states of the electro-hydraulic servo system an observer is designed. Developed control algorithms have been tested experimentally in the laboratory model of an electro-hydraulic servo system. Copyright © 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design Of An Intelligent Robotic System Organizer Via Expert System Tecniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Peter H.; Valavanis, Kimon P.

1989-02-01

Intelligent Robotic Systems are a special type of Intelligent Machines. When modeled based on Vle theory of Intelligent Controls, they are composed of three interactive levels, namely: organization, coordination, and execution, ordered according, to the ,Principle of Increasing, Intelligence with Decreasing Precl.sion. Expert System techniques, are used to design an Intelligent Robotic System Organizer with a dynamic Knowledge Base and an interactive Inference Engine. Task plans are formulated using, either or both of a Probabilistic Approach and Forward Chapling Methodology, depending on pertinent information associated with a spec;fic requested job. The Intelligent Robotic System, Organizer is implemented and tested on a prototype system operating in an uncertain environment. An evaluation of-the performance, of the prototype system is conducted based upon the probability of generating a successful task sequence versus the number of trials taken by the organizer.

Role of dopamine D2 receptors in optimizing choice strategy in a dynamic and uncertain environment

PubMed Central

Kwak, Shinae; Huh, Namjung; Seo, Ji-Seon; Lee, Jung-Eun; Han, Pyung-Lim; Jung, Min W.

2014-01-01

In order to investigate roles of dopamine receptor subtypes in reward-based learning, we examined choice behavior of dopamine D1 and D2 receptor-knockout (D1R-KO and D2R-KO, respectively) mice in an instrumental learning task with progressively increasing reversal frequency and a dynamic two-armed bandit task. Performance of D2R-KO mice was progressively impaired in the former as the frequency of reversal increased and profoundly impaired in the latter even with prolonged training, whereas D1R-KO mice showed relatively minor performance deficits. Choice behavior in the dynamic two-armed bandit task was well explained by a hybrid model including win-stay-lose-switch and reinforcement learning terms. A model-based analysis revealed increased win-stay, but impaired value updating and decreased value-dependent action selection in D2R-KO mice, which were detrimental to maximizing rewards in the dynamic two-armed bandit task. These results suggest an important role of dopamine D2 receptors in learning from past choice outcomes for rapid adjustment of choice behavior in a dynamic and uncertain environment. PMID:25389395

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

PubMed

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions.

Movement decoupling control for two-axis fast steering mirror

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rui; Qiao, Yongming; Lv, Tao

2017-02-01

Based on flexure hinge and piezoelectric actuator of two-axis fast steering mirror is a complex system with time varying, uncertain and strong coupling. It is extremely difficult to achieve high precision decoupling control with the traditional PID control method. The feedback error learning method was established an inverse hysteresis model which was based inner product dynamic neural network nonlinear and no-smooth for piezo-ceramic. In order to improve the actuator high precision, a method was proposed, which was based piezo-ceramic inverse model of two dynamic neural network adaptive control. The experiment result indicated that, compared with two neural network adaptive movement decoupling control algorithm, static relative error is reduced from 4.44% to 0.30% and coupling degree is reduced from 12.71% to 0.60%, while dynamic relative error is reduced from 13.92% to 2.85% and coupling degree is reduced from 2.63% to 1.17%.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

The Impact of Binary Companions on Planetary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraus, Adam L.; Ireland, Michael; Dupuy, Trent; Mann, Andrew; Huber, Daniel

2018-01-01

The majority of solar-type stars are found in binary systems, and the dynamical influence of binary companions is expected to profoundly influence planetary systems. However, the difficulty of identifying planets in binary systems has left the magnitude of this effect uncertain; despite numerous theoretical hurdles to their formation and survival, at least some binary systems clearly host planets. We present high-resolution imaging of nearly 500 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) obtained using adaptive-optics imaging and nonredundant aperture-mask interferometry on the Keck II telescope. We super-resolve some binary systems to projected separations of under 5 AU, showing that planets might form in these dynamically active environments. However, the full distribution of projected separations for our planet-host sample more broadly reveals a deep paucity of binary companions at solar-system scales. Our results demonstrate that a fifth of all solar-type stars in the Milky Way are disallowed from hosting planetary systems due to the influence of a binary companion. We now update these results with multi-epoch imaging to reject non-comoving background stars and securely identify even the least massive stellar companions, as well as tracing out the orbital motion of stellar companions. These results are beginning to reveal not just the fraction of binaries that do not host planets, but also potential explanations for planet survival even in some very close, dynamically active binary systems.

Robust fault tolerant control based on sliding mode method for uncertain linear systems with quantization.

PubMed

Hao, Li-Ying; Yang, Guang-Hong

2013-09-01

This paper is concerned with the problem of robust fault-tolerant compensation control problem for uncertain linear systems subject to both state and input signal quantization. By incorporating novel matrix full-rank factorization technique with sliding surface design successfully, the total failure of certain actuators can be coped with, under a special actuator redundancy assumption. In order to compensate for quantization errors, an adjustment range of quantization sensitivity for a dynamic uniform quantizer is given through the flexible choices of design parameters. Comparing with the existing results, the derived inequality condition leads to the fault tolerance ability stronger and much wider scope of applicability. With a static adjustment policy of quantization sensitivity, an adaptive sliding mode controller is then designed to maintain the sliding mode, where the gain of the nonlinear unit vector term is updated automatically to compensate for the effects of actuator faults, quantization errors, exogenous disturbances and parameter uncertainties without the need for a fault detection and isolation (FDI) mechanism. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed design method is illustrated via a model of a rocket fairing structural-acoustic. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic learning from adaptive neural network control of a class of nonaffine nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Dai, Shi-Lu; Wang, Cong; Wang, Min

2014-01-01

This paper studies the problem of learning from adaptive neural network (NN) control of a class of nonaffine nonlinear systems in uncertain dynamic environments. In the control design process, a stable adaptive NN tracking control design technique is proposed for the nonaffine nonlinear systems with a mild assumption by combining a filtered tracking error with the implicit function theorem, input-to-state stability, and the small-gain theorem. The proposed stable control design technique not only overcomes the difficulty in controlling nonaffine nonlinear systems but also relaxes constraint conditions of the considered systems. In the learning process, the partial persistent excitation (PE) condition of radial basis function NNs is satisfied during tracking control to a recurrent reference trajectory. Under the PE condition and an appropriate state transformation, the proposed adaptive NN control is shown to be capable of acquiring knowledge on the implicit desired control input dynamics in the stable control process and of storing the learned knowledge in memory. Subsequently, an NN learning control design technique that effectively exploits the learned knowledge without re-adapting to the controller parameters is proposed to achieve closed-loop stability and improved control performance. Simulation studies are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed design techniques.

Robustness and cognition in stabilization problem of dynamical systems based on asymptotic methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubovik, S. A.; Kabanov, A. A.

2017-01-01

The problem of synthesis of stabilizing systems based on principles of cognitive (logical-dynamic) control for mobile objects used under uncertain conditions is considered. This direction in control theory is based on the principles of guaranteeing robust synthesis focused on worst-case scenarios of the controlled process. The guaranteeing approach is able to provide functioning of the system with the required quality and reliability only at sufficiently low disturbances and in the absence of large deviations from some regular features of the controlled process. The main tool for the analysis of large deviations and prediction of critical states here is the action functional. After the forecast is built, the choice of anti-crisis control is the supervisory control problem that optimizes the control system in a normal mode and prevents escape of the controlled process in critical states. An essential aspect of the approach presented here is the presence of a two-level (logical-dynamic) control: the input data are used not only for generating of synthesized feedback (local robust synthesis) in advance (off-line), but also to make decisions about the current (on-line) quality of stabilization in the global sense. An example of using the presented approach for the problem of development of the ship tilting prediction system is considered.

Attitude control/momentum management and payload pointing in advanced space vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parlos, Alexander G.; Jayasuriya, Suhada

1990-01-01

The design and evaluation of an attitude control/momentum management system for highly asymmetric spacecraft configurations are presented. The preliminary development and application of a nonlinear control system design methodology for tracking control of uncertain systems, such as spacecraft payload pointing systems are also presented. Control issues relevant to both linear and nonlinear rigid-body spacecraft dynamics are addressed, whereas any structural flexibilities are not taken into consideration. Results from the first task indicate that certain commonly used simplifications in the equations of motions result in unstable attitude control systems, when used for highly asymmetric spacecraft configurations. An approach is suggested circumventing this problem. Additionally, even though preliminary results from the second task are encouraging, the proposed nonlinear control system design method requires further investigation prior to its application and use as an effective payload pointing system design technique.

Decentralised output feedback control of Markovian jump interconnected systems with unknown interconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Li-Wei; Yang, Guang-Hong

2017-07-01

The problem of decentralised output feedback control is addressed for Markovian jump interconnected systems with unknown interconnections and general transition rates (TRs) allowed to be unknown or known with uncertainties. A class of decentralised dynamic output feedback controllers are constructed, and a cyclic-small-gain condition is exploited to dispose the unknown interconnections so that the resultant closed-loop system is stochastically stable and satisfies an H∞ performance. With slack matrices to cope with the nonlinearities incurred by unknown and uncertain TRs in control synthesis, a novel controller design condition is developed in linear matrix inequality formalism. Compared with the existing works, the proposed approach leads to less conservatism. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the new results.

178: FORECASTING THE SHORTAGE OF NEUROSURGEONS IN IRAN USING A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL APPROACH

PubMed Central

Ezzatabadi, Mohammad Ranjbar; Zadeh, Sina Abdollah; Rafiei, Sima

2017-01-01

Background and aims Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus in an uncertain environment, long term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. The study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modelling. Methods System dynamic modelling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic and utilization variables. Along with, supply model incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as: attrition, migration and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases were analysed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics and disease prevalence during the time. Results It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization and medical capacity of the region. Conclusion Results of the study suggests that shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

Fuzzy Stochastic Petri Nets for Modeling Biological Systems with Uncertain Kinetic Parameters

PubMed Central

Liu, Fei; Heiner, Monika; Yang, Ming

2016-01-01

Stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) have been widely used to model randomness which is an inherent feature of biological systems. However, for many biological systems, some kinetic parameters may be uncertain due to incomplete, vague or missing kinetic data (often called fuzzy uncertainty), or naturally vary, e.g., between different individuals, experimental conditions, etc. (often called variability), which has prevented a wider application of SPNs that require accurate parameters. Considering the strength of fuzzy sets to deal with uncertain information, we apply a specific type of stochastic Petri nets, fuzzy stochastic Petri nets (FSPNs), to model and analyze biological systems with uncertain kinetic parameters. FSPNs combine SPNs and fuzzy sets, thereby taking into account both randomness and fuzziness of biological systems. For a biological system, SPNs model the randomness, while fuzzy sets model kinetic parameters with fuzzy uncertainty or variability by associating each parameter with a fuzzy number instead of a crisp real value. We introduce a simulation-based analysis method for FSPNs to explore the uncertainties of outputs resulting from the uncertainties associated with input parameters, which works equally well for bounded and unbounded models. We illustrate our approach using a yeast polarization model having an infinite state space, which shows the appropriateness of FSPNs in combination with simulation-based analysis for modeling and analyzing biological systems with uncertain information. PMID:26910830

Adaptive Fault-Tolerant Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Large-Scale Systems With Unknown Dead Zone.

PubMed

Chen, Mou; Tao, Gang

2016-08-01

In this paper, an adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme is proposed and analyzed for a class of uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems with unknown dead zone and external disturbances. To tackle the unknown nonlinear interaction functions in the large-scale system, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is employed to approximate them. To further handle the unknown approximation errors and the effects of the unknown dead zone and external disturbances, integrated as the compounded disturbances, the corresponding disturbance observers are developed for their estimations. Based on the outputs of the RBFNN and the disturbance observer, the adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme is designed for uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems by using a decentralized backstepping technique. The closed-loop stability of the adaptive control system is rigorously proved via Lyapunov analysis and the satisfactory tracking performance is achieved under the integrated effects of unknown dead zone, actuator fault, and unknown external disturbances. Simulation results of a mass-spring-damper system are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme for uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems.

Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests

Treesearch

Matthew J. Duveneck; Jonathan R. Thompson; Eric J. Gustafson; Yu Liang; Arjan M. G. de Bruijn

2017-01-01

Context. Forests throughout eastern North America continue to recover from broad-scale intensive land use that peaked in the nineteenth century. These forests provide essential goods and services at local to global scales. It is uncertain how recovery dynamics, the processes by which forests respond to past forest land use, will continue to...

Power maximization of variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines using passive adaptive neural fault tolerant control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi, Hamed; Rahimi Nohooji, Hamed; Howard, Ian

2017-09-01

Power maximization has always been a practical consideration in wind turbines. The question of how to address optimal power capture, especially when the system dynamics are nonlinear and the actuators are subject to unknown faults, is significant. This paper studies the control methodology for variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines including the effects of uncertain nonlinear dynamics, system fault uncertainties, and unknown external disturbances. The nonlinear model of the wind turbine is presented, and the problem of maximizing extracted energy is formulated by designing the optimal desired states. With the known system, a model-based nonlinear controller is designed; then, to handle uncertainties, the unknown nonlinearities of the wind turbine are estimated by utilizing radial basis function neural networks. The adaptive neural fault tolerant control is designed passively to be robust on model uncertainties, disturbances including wind speed and model noises, and completely unknown actuator faults including generator torque and pitch actuator torque. The Lyapunov direct method is employed to prove that the closed-loop system is uniformly bounded. Simulation studies are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Based on interval type-2 fuzzy-neural network direct adaptive sliding mode control for SISO nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tsung-Chih

2010-12-01

In this paper, a novel direct adaptive interval type-2 fuzzy-neural tracking control equipped with sliding mode and Lyapunov synthesis approach is proposed to handle the training data corrupted by noise or rule uncertainties for nonlinear SISO nonlinear systems involving external disturbances. By employing adaptive fuzzy-neural control theory, the update laws will be derived for approximating the uncertain nonlinear dynamical system. In the meantime, the sliding mode control method and the Lyapunov stability criterion are incorporated into the adaptive fuzzy-neural control scheme such that the derived controller is robust with respect to unmodeled dynamics, external disturbance and approximation errors. In comparison with conventional methods, the advocated approach not only guarantees closed-loop stability but also the output tracking error of the overall system will converge to zero asymptotically without prior knowledge on the upper bound of the lumped uncertainty. Furthermore, chattering effect of the control input will be substantially reduced by the proposed technique. To illustrate the performance of the proposed method, finally simulation example will be given.

Reasoning and planning in dynamic domains: An experiment with a mobile robot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Georgeff, M. P.; Lansky, A. L.; Schoppers, M. J.

1987-01-01

Progress made toward having an autonomous mobile robot reason and plan complex tasks in real-world environments is described. To cope with the dynamic and uncertain nature of the world, researchers use a highly reactive system to which is attributed attitudes of belief, desire, and intention. Because these attitudes are explicitly represented, they can be manipulated and reasoned about, resulting in complex goal-directed and reflective behaviors. Unlike most planning systems, the plans or intentions formed by the system need only be partly elaborated before it decides to act. This allows the system to avoid overly strong expectations about the environment, overly constrained plans of action, and other forms of over-commitment common to previous planners. In addition, the system is continuously reactive and has the ability to change its goals and intentions as situations warrant. Thus, while the system architecture allows for reasoning about means and ends in much the same way as traditional planners, it also posseses the reactivity required for survival in complex real-world domains. The system was tested using SRI's autonomous robot (Flakey) in a scenario involving navigation and the performance of an emergency task in a space station scenario.

Decentralized adaptive neural control for high-order interconnected stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems with unknown system dynamics.

PubMed

Si, Wenjie; Dong, Xunde; Yang, Feifei

2018-03-01

This paper is concerned with the problem of decentralized adaptive backstepping state-feedback control for uncertain high-order large-scale stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems. For the control design of high-order large-scale nonlinear systems, only one adaptive parameter is constructed to overcome the over-parameterization, and neural networks are employed to cope with the difficulties raised by completely unknown system dynamics and stochastic disturbances. And then, the appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the property of hyperbolic tangent functions are used to deal with the unknown unmatched time-delay interactions of high-order large-scale systems for the first time. At last, on the basis of Lyapunov stability theory, the decentralized adaptive neural controller was developed, and it decreases the number of learning parameters. The actual controller can be designed so as to ensure that all the signals in the closed-loop system are semi-globally uniformly ultimately bounded (SGUUB) and the tracking error converges in the small neighborhood of zero. The simulation example is used to further show the validity of the design method. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive integral feedback controller for pitch and yaw channels of an AUV with actuator saturations.

PubMed

Sarhadi, Pouria; Noei, Abolfazl Ranjbar; Khosravi, Alireza

2016-11-01

Input saturations and uncertain dynamics are among the practical challenges in control of autonomous vehicles. Adaptive control is known as a proper method to deal with the uncertain dynamics of these systems. Therefore, incorporating the ability to confront with input saturation in adaptive controllers can be valuable. In this paper, an adaptive autopilot is presented for the pitch and yaw channels of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the presence of input saturations. This will be performed by combination of a model reference adaptive control (MRAC) with integral state feedback with a modern anti-windup (AW) compensator. MRAC with integral state feedback is commonly used in autonomous vehicles. However, some proper modifications need to be taken into account in order to cope with the saturation problem. To this end, a Riccati-based anti-windup (AW) compensator is employed. The presented technique is applied to the non-linear six degrees of freedom (DOF) model of an AUV and the obtained results are compared with that of its baseline method. Several simulation scenarios are executed in the pitch and yaw channels to evaluate the controller performance. Moreover, effectiveness of proposed adaptive controller is comprehensively investigated by implementing Monte Carlo simulations. The obtained results verify the performance of proposed method. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of system uncertainties on the numerical transfer path analysis of engine systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acri, A.; Nijman, E.; Acri, A.; Offner, G.

2017-10-01

Practical mechanical systems operate with some degree of uncertainty. In numerical models uncertainties can result from poorly known or variable parameters, from geometrical approximation, from discretization or numerical errors, from uncertain inputs or from rapidly changing forcing that can be best described in a stochastic framework. Recently, random matrix theory was introduced to take parameter uncertainties into account in numerical modeling problems. In particular in this paper, Wishart random matrix theory is applied on a multi-body dynamic system to generate random variations of the properties of system components. Multi-body dynamics is a powerful numerical tool largely implemented during the design of new engines. In this paper the influence of model parameter variability on the results obtained from the multi-body simulation of engine dynamics is investigated. The aim is to define a methodology to properly assess and rank system sources when dealing with uncertainties. Particular attention is paid to the influence of these uncertainties on the analysis and the assessment of the different engine vibration sources. Examples of the effects of different levels of uncertainties are illustrated by means of examples using a representative numerical powertrain model. A numerical transfer path analysis, based on system dynamic substructuring, is used to derive and assess the internal engine vibration sources. The results obtained from this analysis are used to derive correlations between parameter uncertainties and statistical distribution of results. The derived statistical information can be used to advance the knowledge of the multi-body analysis and the assessment of system sources when uncertainties in model parameters are considered.

Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2017-04-01

Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

Efficient Optimization of Stimuli for Model-Based Design of Experiments to Resolve Dynamical Uncertainty.

PubMed

Mdluli, Thembi; Buzzard, Gregery T; Rundell, Ann E

2015-09-01

This model-based design of experiments (MBDOE) method determines the input magnitudes of an experimental stimuli to apply and the associated measurements that should be taken to optimally constrain the uncertain dynamics of a biological system under study. The ideal global solution for this experiment design problem is generally computationally intractable because of parametric uncertainties in the mathematical model of the biological system. Others have addressed this issue by limiting the solution to a local estimate of the model parameters. Here we present an approach that is independent of the local parameter constraint. This approach is made computationally efficient and tractable by the use of: (1) sparse grid interpolation that approximates the biological system dynamics, (2) representative parameters that uniformly represent the data-consistent dynamical space, and (3) probability weights of the represented experimentally distinguishable dynamics. Our approach identifies data-consistent representative parameters using sparse grid interpolants, constructs the optimal input sequence from a greedy search, and defines the associated optimal measurements using a scenario tree. We explore the optimality of this MBDOE algorithm using a 3-dimensional Hes1 model and a 19-dimensional T-cell receptor model. The 19-dimensional T-cell model also demonstrates the MBDOE algorithm's scalability to higher dimensions. In both cases, the dynamical uncertainty region that bounds the trajectories of the target system states were reduced by as much as 86% and 99% respectively after completing the designed experiments in silico. Our results suggest that for resolving dynamical uncertainty, the ability to design an input sequence paired with its associated measurements is particularly important when limited by the number of measurements.

Efficient Optimization of Stimuli for Model-Based Design of Experiments to Resolve Dynamical Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Mdluli, Thembi; Buzzard, Gregery T.; Rundell, Ann E.

2015-01-01

This model-based design of experiments (MBDOE) method determines the input magnitudes of an experimental stimuli to apply and the associated measurements that should be taken to optimally constrain the uncertain dynamics of a biological system under study. The ideal global solution for this experiment design problem is generally computationally intractable because of parametric uncertainties in the mathematical model of the biological system. Others have addressed this issue by limiting the solution to a local estimate of the model parameters. Here we present an approach that is independent of the local parameter constraint. This approach is made computationally efficient and tractable by the use of: (1) sparse grid interpolation that approximates the biological system dynamics, (2) representative parameters that uniformly represent the data-consistent dynamical space, and (3) probability weights of the represented experimentally distinguishable dynamics. Our approach identifies data-consistent representative parameters using sparse grid interpolants, constructs the optimal input sequence from a greedy search, and defines the associated optimal measurements using a scenario tree. We explore the optimality of this MBDOE algorithm using a 3-dimensional Hes1 model and a 19-dimensional T-cell receptor model. The 19-dimensional T-cell model also demonstrates the MBDOE algorithm’s scalability to higher dimensions. In both cases, the dynamical uncertainty region that bounds the trajectories of the target system states were reduced by as much as 86% and 99% respectively after completing the designed experiments in silico. Our results suggest that for resolving dynamical uncertainty, the ability to design an input sequence paired with its associated measurements is particularly important when limited by the number of measurements. PMID:26379275

Robust design of feedback feed-forward iterative learning control based on 2D system theory for linear uncertain systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhifu; Hu, Yueming; Li, Di

2016-08-01

For a class of linear discrete-time uncertain systems, a feedback feed-forward iterative learning control (ILC) scheme is proposed, which is comprised of an iterative learning controller and two current iteration feedback controllers. The iterative learning controller is used to improve the performance along the iteration direction and the feedback controllers are used to improve the performance along the time direction. First of all, the uncertain feedback feed-forward ILC system is presented by an uncertain two-dimensional Roesser model system. Then, two robust control schemes are proposed. One can ensure that the feedback feed-forward ILC system is bounded-input bounded-output stable along time direction, and the other can ensure that the feedback feed-forward ILC system is asymptotically stable along time direction. Both schemes can guarantee the system is robust monotonically convergent along the iteration direction. Third, the robust convergent sufficient conditions are given, which contains a linear matrix inequality (LMI). Moreover, the LMI can be used to determine the gain matrix of the feedback feed-forward iterative learning controller. Finally, the simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Stability of uncertain impulsive complex-variable chaotic systems with time-varying delays.

PubMed

Zheng, Song

2015-09-01

In this paper, the robust exponential stabilization of uncertain impulsive complex-variable chaotic delayed systems is considered with parameters perturbation and delayed impulses. It is assumed that the considered complex-variable chaotic systems have bounded parametric uncertainties together with the state variables on the impulses related to the time-varying delays. Based on the theories of adaptive control and impulsive control, some less conservative and easily verified stability criteria are established for a class of complex-variable chaotic delayed systems with delayed impulses. Some numerical simulations are given to validate the effectiveness of the proposed criteria of impulsive stabilization for uncertain complex-variable chaotic delayed systems. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Homogenization-based interval analysis for structural-acoustic problem involving periodical composites and multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters.

PubMed

Chen, Ning; Yu, Dejie; Xia, Baizhan; Liu, Jian; Ma, Zhengdong

2017-04-01

This paper presents a homogenization-based interval analysis method for the prediction of coupled structural-acoustic systems involving periodical composites and multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters. In the structural-acoustic system, the macro plate structure is assumed to be composed of a periodically uniform microstructure. The equivalent macro material properties of the microstructure are computed using the homogenization method. By integrating the first-order Taylor expansion interval analysis method with the homogenization-based finite element method, a homogenization-based interval finite element method (HIFEM) is developed to solve a periodical composite structural-acoustic system with multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters. The corresponding formulations of the HIFEM are deduced. A subinterval technique is also introduced into the HIFEM for higher accuracy. Numerical examples of a hexahedral box and an automobile passenger compartment are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the presented method for a periodical composite structural-acoustic system with multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters.

Uncertainty during Anticipation Modulates Neural Responses to Aversion in Human Insula and Amygdala

PubMed Central

Sarinopoulos, I.; Grupe, D. W.; Mackiewicz, K. L.; Herrington, J. D.; Lor, M.; Steege, E. E.

2010-01-01

Uncertainty about potential negative future outcomes can cause stress and is a central feature of anxiety disorders. The stress and anxiety associated with uncertain situations may lead individuals to overestimate the frequency with which uncertain cues are followed by negative outcomes, an example of covariation bias. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we found that uncertainty-related expectations modulated neural responses to aversion. Insula and amygdala responses to aversive pictures were larger after an uncertain cue (that preceded aversive or neutral pictures) than a certain cue (that always preceded aversive pictures). Anticipatory anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) activity elicited by the cues was inversely associated with the insula and amygdala responses to aversive pictures following the cues. Nearly 75% of subjects overestimated the frequency of aversive pictures following uncertain cues, and ACC and insula activity predicted this uncertainty-related covariation bias. Findings provide the first evidence of the brain mechanisms of covariation bias and highlight the temporal dynamics of ACC, insula, and amygdala recruitment for processing aversion in the context of uncertainty. PMID:19679543

Terminal sliding mode tracking control for a class of SISO uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Chen, Mou; Wu, Qing-Xian; Cui, Rong-Xin

2013-03-01

In this paper, the terminal sliding mode tracking control is proposed for the uncertain single-input and single-output (SISO) nonlinear system with unknown external disturbance. For the unmeasured disturbance of nonlinear systems, terminal sliding mode disturbance observer is presented. The developed disturbance observer can guarantee the disturbance approximation error to converge to zero in the finite time. Based on the output of designed disturbance observer, the terminal sliding mode tracking control is presented for uncertain SISO nonlinear systems. Subsequently, terminal sliding mode tracking control is developed using disturbance observer technique for the uncertain SISO nonlinear system with control singularity and unknown non-symmetric input saturation. The effects of the control singularity and unknown input saturation are combined with the external disturbance which is approximated using the disturbance observer. Under the proposed terminal sliding mode tracking control techniques, the finite time convergence of all closed-loop signals are guaranteed via Lyapunov analysis. Numerical simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed terminal sliding mode tracking control. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Task-level control for autonomous robots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simmons, Reid

1994-01-01

Task-level control refers to the integration and coordination of planning, perception, and real-time control to achieve given high-level goals. Autonomous mobile robots need task-level control to effectively achieve complex tasks in uncertain, dynamic environments. This paper describes the Task Control Architecture (TCA), an implemented system that provides commonly needed constructs for task-level control. Facilities provided by TCA include distributed communication, task decomposition and sequencing, resource management, monitoring and exception handling. TCA supports a design methodology in which robot systems are developed incrementally, starting first with deliberative plans that work in nominal situations, and then layering them with reactive behaviors that monitor plan execution and handle exceptions. To further support this approach, design and analysis tools are under development to provide ways of graphically viewing the system and validating its behavior.

A Truthful Incentive Mechanism for Online Recruitment in Mobile Crowd Sensing System.

PubMed

Chen, Xiao; Liu, Min; Zhou, Yaqin; Li, Zhongcheng; Chen, Shuang; He, Xiangnan

2017-01-01

We investigate emerging mobile crowd sensing (MCS) systems, in which new cloud-based platforms sequentially allocate homogenous sensing jobs to dynamically-arriving users with uncertain service qualities. Given that human beings are selfish in nature, it is crucial yet challenging to design an efficient and truthful incentive mechanism to encourage users to participate. To address the challenge, we propose a novel truthful online auction mechanism that can efficiently learn to make irreversible online decisions on winner selections for new MCS systems without requiring previous knowledge of users. Moreover, we theoretically prove that our incentive possesses truthfulness, individual rationality and computational efficiency. Extensive simulation results under both real and synthetic traces demonstrate that our incentive mechanism can reduce the payment of the platform, increase the utility of the platform and social welfare.

Uncertainty quantification tools for multiphase gas-solid flow simulations using MFIX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, Rodney O.; Passalacqua, Alberto

2016-02-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely studied and used in the scientific community and in the industry. Various models were proposed to solve problems in different areas. However, all models deviate from reality. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) process evaluates the overall uncertainties associated with the prediction of quantities of interest. In particular it studies the propagation of input uncertainties to the outputs of the models so that confidence intervals can be provided for the simulation results. In the present work, a non-intrusive quadrature-based uncertainty quantification (QBUQ) approach is proposed. The probability distribution function (PDF) of the system response can bemore » then reconstructed using extended quadrature method of moments (EQMOM) and extended conditional quadrature method of moments (ECQMOM). The report first explains the theory of QBUQ approach, including methods to generate samples for problems with single or multiple uncertain input parameters, low order statistics, and required number of samples. Then methods for univariate PDF reconstruction (EQMOM) and multivariate PDF reconstruction (ECQMOM) are explained. The implementation of QBUQ approach into the open-source CFD code MFIX is discussed next. At last, QBUQ approach is demonstrated in several applications. The method is first applied to two examples: a developing flow in a channel with uncertain viscosity, and an oblique shock problem with uncertain upstream Mach number. The error in the prediction of the moment response is studied as a function of the number of samples, and the accuracy of the moments required to reconstruct the PDF of the system response is discussed. The QBUQ approach is then demonstrated by considering a bubbling fluidized bed as example application. The mean particle size is assumed to be the uncertain input parameter. The system is simulated with a standard two-fluid model with kinetic theory closures for the particulate phase implemented into MFIX. The effect of uncertainty on the disperse-phase volume fraction, on the phase velocities and on the pressure drop inside the fluidized bed are examined, and the reconstructed PDFs are provided for the three quantities studied. Then the approach is applied to a bubbling fluidized bed with two uncertain parameters, particle-particle and particle-wall restitution coefficients. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities and gas pressure are provided. The PDFs of the response are reconstructed using EQMOM with appropriate kernel density functions. The simulation results are compared to experimental data provided by the 2013 NETL small-scale challenge problem. Lastly, the proposed procedure is demonstrated by considering a riser of a circulating fluidized bed as an example application. The mean particle size is considered to be the uncertain input parameter. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities, and granular temperature are provided. Mean values and confidence intervals of the quantities of interest are compared to the experiment results. The univariate and bivariate PDF reconstructions of the system response are performed using EQMOM and ECQMOM.« less

Ascertainment-adjusted parameter estimation approach to improve robustness against misspecification of health monitoring methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juesas, P.; Ramasso, E.

2016-12-01

Condition monitoring aims at ensuring system safety which is a fundamental requirement for industrial applications and that has become an inescapable social demand. This objective is attained by instrumenting the system and developing data analytics methods such as statistical models able to turn data into relevant knowledge. One difficulty is to be able to correctly estimate the parameters of those methods based on time-series data. This paper suggests the use of the Weighted Distribution Theory together with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm to improve parameter estimation in statistical models with latent variables with an application to health monotonic under uncertainty. The improvement of estimates is made possible by incorporating uncertain and possibly noisy prior knowledge on latent variables in a sound manner. The latent variables are exploited to build a degradation model of dynamical system represented as a sequence of discrete states. Examples on Gaussian Mixture Models, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) with discrete and continuous outputs are presented on both simulated data and benchmarks using the turbofan engine datasets. A focus on the application of a discrete HMM to health monitoring under uncertainty allows to emphasize the interest of the proposed approach in presence of different operating conditions and fault modes. It is shown that the proposed model depicts high robustness in presence of noisy and uncertain prior.

Limitations and tradeoffs in synchronization of large-scale networks with uncertain links

PubMed Central

Diwadkar, Amit; Vaidya, Umesh

2016-01-01

The synchronization of nonlinear systems connected over large-scale networks has gained popularity in a variety of applications, such as power grids, sensor networks, and biology. Stochastic uncertainty in the interconnections is a ubiquitous phenomenon observed in these physical and biological networks. We provide a size-independent network sufficient condition for the synchronization of scalar nonlinear systems with stochastic linear interactions over large-scale networks. This sufficient condition, expressed in terms of nonlinear dynamics, the Laplacian eigenvalues of the nominal interconnections, and the variance and location of the stochastic uncertainty, allows us to define a synchronization margin. We provide an analytical characterization of important trade-offs between the internal nonlinear dynamics, network topology, and uncertainty in synchronization. For nearest neighbour networks, the existence of an optimal number of neighbours with a maximum synchronization margin is demonstrated. An analytical formula for the optimal gain that produces the maximum synchronization margin allows us to compare the synchronization properties of various complex network topologies. PMID:27067994

Robustness analysis of uncertain dynamical neural networks with multiple time delays.

PubMed

Senan, Sibel

2015-10-01

This paper studies the problem of global robust asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for the class of dynamical neural networks with multiple time delays with respect to the class of slope-bounded activation functions and in the presence of the uncertainties of system parameters of the considered neural network model. By using an appropriate Lyapunov functional and exploiting the properties of the homeomorphism mapping theorem, we derive a new sufficient condition for the existence, uniqueness and global robust asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for the class of neural networks with multiple time delays. The obtained stability condition basically relies on testing some relationships imposed on the interconnection matrices of the neural system, which can be easily verified by using some certain properties of matrices. An instructive numerical example is also given to illustrate the applicability of our result and show the advantages of this new condition over the previously reported corresponding results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptative synchronization in multi-output fractional-order complex dynamical networks and secure communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mata-Machuca, Juan L.; Aguilar-López, Ricardo

2018-01-01

This work deals with the adaptative synchronization of complex dynamical networks with fractional-order nodes and its application in secure communications employing chaotic parameter modulation. The complex network is composed of multiple fractional-order systems with mismatch parameters and the coupling functions are given to realize the network synchronization. We introduce a fractional algebraic synchronizability condition (FASC) and a fractional algebraic identifiability condition (FAIC) which are used to know if the synchronization and parameters estimation problems can be solved. To overcome these problems, an adaptative synchronization methodology is designed; the strategy consists in proposing multiple receiver systems which tend to follow asymptotically the uncertain transmitters systems. The coupling functions and parameters of the receiver systems are adjusted continually according to a convenient sigmoid-like adaptative controller (SLAC), until the measurable output errors converge to zero, hence, synchronization between transmitter and receivers is achieved and message signals are recovered. Indeed, the stability analysis of the synchronization error is based on the fractional Lyapunov direct method. Finally, numerical results corroborate the satisfactory performance of the proposed scheme by means of the synchronization of a complex network consisting of several fractional-order unified chaotic systems.

Development of a robust framework for controlling high performance turbofan engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miklosovic, Robert

This research involves the development of a robust framework for controlling complex and uncertain multivariable systems. Where mathematical modeling is often tedious or inaccurate, the new method uses an extended state observer (ESO) to estimate and cancel dynamic information in real time and dynamically decouple the system. As a result, controller design and tuning become transparent as the number of required model parameters is reduced. Much research has been devoted towards the application of modern multivariable control techniques on aircraft engines. However, few, if any, have been implemented on an operational aircraft, partially due to the difficulty in tuning the controller for satisfactory performance. The new technique is applied to a modern two-spool, high-pressure ratio, low-bypass turbofan with mixed-flow afterburning. A realistic Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (MAPSS) package, developed by NASA, is used to demonstrate the new design process and compare its performance with that of a supplied nominal controller. This approach is expected to reduce gain scheduling over the full operating envelope of the engine and allow a controller to be tuned for engine-to-engine variations.

Robust decentralized hybrid adaptive output feedback fuzzy control for a class of large-scale MIMO nonlinear systems and its application to AHS.

PubMed

Huang, Yi-Shao; Liu, Wel-Ping; Wu, Min; Wang, Zheng-Wu

2014-09-01

This paper presents a novel observer-based decentralized hybrid adaptive fuzzy control scheme for a class of large-scale continuous-time multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) uncertain nonlinear systems whose state variables are unmeasurable. The scheme integrates fuzzy logic systems, state observers, and strictly positive real conditions to deal with three issues in the control of a large-scale MIMO uncertain nonlinear system: algorithm design, controller singularity, and transient response. Then, the design of the hybrid adaptive fuzzy controller is extended to address a general large-scale uncertain nonlinear system. It is shown that the resultant closed-loop large-scale system keeps asymptotically stable and the tracking error converges to zero. The better characteristics of our scheme are demonstrated by simulations. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Reinforcement-Learning-Based Robust Controller Design for Continuous-Time Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Subject to Input Constraints.

PubMed

Liu, Derong; Yang, Xiong; Wang, Ding; Wei, Qinglai

2015-07-01

The design of stabilizing controller for uncertain nonlinear systems with control constraints is a challenging problem. The constrained-input coupled with the inability to identify accurately the uncertainties motivates the design of stabilizing controller based on reinforcement-learning (RL) methods. In this paper, a novel RL-based robust adaptive control algorithm is developed for a class of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems subject to input constraints. The robust control problem is converted to the constrained optimal control problem with appropriately selecting value functions for the nominal system. Distinct from typical action-critic dual networks employed in RL, only one critic neural network (NN) is constructed to derive the approximate optimal control. Meanwhile, unlike initial stabilizing control often indispensable in RL, there is no special requirement imposed on the initial control. By utilizing Lyapunov's direct method, the closed-loop optimal control system and the estimated weights of the critic NN are proved to be uniformly ultimately bounded. In addition, the derived approximate optimal control is verified to guarantee the uncertain nonlinear system to be stable in the sense of uniform ultimate boundedness. Two simulation examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the present approach.

Linked Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration, and Uncertainty Analysis Using a System Dynamics Model for Stroke Comparative Effectiveness Research.

PubMed

Tian, Yuan; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Osgood, Nathaniel D; Eom, Kirsten; Matchar, David B

2016-11-01

As health services researchers and decision makers tackle more difficult problems using simulation models, the number of parameters and the corresponding degree of uncertainty have increased. This often results in reduced confidence in such complex models to guide decision making. To demonstrate a systematic approach of linked sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty analysis to improve confidence in complex models. Four techniques were integrated and applied to a System Dynamics stroke model of US veterans, which was developed to inform systemwide intervention and research planning: Morris method (sensitivity analysis), multistart Powell hill-climbing algorithm and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (calibration), and Monte Carlo simulation (uncertainty analysis). Of 60 uncertain parameters, sensitivity analysis identified 29 needing calibration, 7 that did not need calibration but significantly influenced key stroke outcomes, and 24 not influential to calibration or stroke outcomes that were fixed at their best guess values. One thousand alternative well-calibrated baselines were obtained to reflect calibration uncertainty and brought into uncertainty analysis. The initial stroke incidence rate among veterans was identified as the most influential uncertain parameter, for which further data should be collected. That said, accounting for current uncertainty, the analysis of 15 distinct prevention and treatment interventions provided a robust conclusion that hypertension control for all veterans would yield the largest gain in quality-adjusted life years. For complex health care models, a mixed approach was applied to examine the uncertainty surrounding key stroke outcomes and the robustness of conclusions. We demonstrate that this rigorous approach can be practical and advocate for such analysis to promote understanding of the limits of certainty in applying models to current decisions and to guide future data collection. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Multi-Scale, Integrated Approach to Representing Watershed Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Valeriy; Kim, Jongho; Fatichi, Simone; Katopodes, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Understanding and predicting process dynamics across a range of scales are fundamental challenges for basic hydrologic research and practical applications. This is particularly true when larger-spatial-scale processes, such as surface-subsurface flow and precipitation, need to be translated to fine space-time scale dynamics of processes, such as channel hydraulics and sediment transport, that are often of primary interest. Inferring characteristics of fine-scale processes from uncertain coarse-scale climate projection information poses additional challenges. We have developed an integrated model simulating hydrological processes, flow dynamics, erosion, and sediment transport, tRIBS+VEGGIE-FEaST. The model targets to take the advantage of the current generation of wealth of data representing watershed topography, vegetation, soil, and landuse, as well as to explore the hydrological effects of physical factors and their feedback mechanisms over a range of scales. We illustrate how the modeling system connects precipitation-hydrologic runoff partition process to the dynamics of flow, erosion, and sedimentation, and how the soil's substrate condition can impact the latter processes, resulting in a non-unique response. We further illustrate an approach to using downscaled climate change information with a process-based model to infer the moments of hydrologic variables in future climate conditions and explore the impact of climate information uncertainty.

Dynamic Controllability and Dispatchability Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Paul Henry

2014-01-01

An important issue for temporal planners is the ability to handle temporal uncertainty. Recent papers have addressed the question of how to tell whether a temporal network is Dynamically Controllable, i.e., whether the temporal requirements are feasible in the light of uncertain durations of some processes. We present a fast algorithm for Dynamic Controllability. We also note a correspondence between the reduction steps in the algorithm and the operations involved in converting the projections to dispatchable form. This has implications for the complexity for sparse networks.

A Comparison of Reduced Order Modeling Techniques Used in Dynamic Substructuring.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roettgen, Dan; Seegar, Ben; Tai, Wei Che

Experimental dynamic substructuring is a means whereby a mathematical model for a substructure can be obtained experimentally and then coupled to a model for the rest of the assembly to predict the response. Recently, various methods have been proposed that use a transmission simulator to overcome sensitivity to measurement errors and to exercise the interface between the substructures; including the Craig-Bampton, Dual Craig-Bampton, and Craig-Mayes methods. This work compares the advantages and disadvantages of these reduced order modeling strategies for two dynamic substructuring problems. The methods are first used on an analytical beam model to validate the methodologies. Then theymore » are used to obtain an experimental model for structure consisting of a cylinder with several components inside connected to the outside case by foam with uncertain properties. This represents an exceedingly difficult structure to model and so experimental substructuring could be an attractive way to obtain a model of the system.« less

A Comparison of Reduced Order Modeling Techniques Used in Dynamic Substructuring [PowerPoint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roettgen, Dan; Seeger, Benjamin; Tai, Wei Che

Experimental dynamic substructuring is a means whereby a mathematical model for a substructure can be obtained experimentally and then coupled to a model for the rest of the assembly to predict the response. Recently, various methods have been proposed that use a transmission simulator to overcome sensitivity to measurement errors and to exercise the interface between the substructures; including the Craig-Bampton, Dual Craig-Bampton, and Craig-Mayes methods. This work compares the advantages and disadvantages of these reduced order modeling strategies for two dynamic substructuring problems. The methods are first used on an analytical beam model to validate the methodologies. Then theymore » are used to obtain an experimental model for structure consisting of a cylinder with several components inside connected to the outside case by foam with uncertain properties. This represents an exceedingly difficult structure to model and so experimental substructuring could be an attractive way to obtain a model of the system.« less

Wire rope tension control of hoisting systems using a robust nonlinear adaptive backstepping control scheme.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhen-Cai; Li, Xiang; Shen, Gang; Zhu, Wei-Dong

2018-01-01

This paper concerns wire rope tension control of a double-rope winding hoisting system (DRWHS), which consists of a hoisting system employed to realize a transportation function and an electro-hydraulic servo system utilized to adjust wire rope tensions. A dynamic model of the DRWHS is developed in which parameter uncertainties and external disturbances are considered. A comparison between simulation results using the dynamic model and experimental results using a double-rope winding hoisting experimental system is given in order to demonstrate accuracy of the dynamic model. In order to improve the wire rope tension coordination control performance of the DRWHS, a robust nonlinear adaptive backstepping controller (RNABC) combined with a nonlinear disturbance observer (NDO) is proposed. Main features of the proposed combined controller are: (1) using the RNABC to adjust wire rope tensions with consideration of parameter uncertainties, whose parameters are designed online by adaptive laws derived from Lyapunov stability theory to guarantee the control performance and stability of the closed-loop system; and (2) introducing the NDO to deal with uncertain external disturbances. In order to demonstrate feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed controller, experimental studies have been conducted on the DRWHS controlled by an xPC rapid prototyping system. Experimental results verify that the proposed controller exhibits excellent performance on wire rope tension coordination control compared with a conventional proportional-integral (PI) controller and adaptive backstepping controller. Copyright © 2017 ISA. All rights reserved.

On the development of a reactive sensor-based robotic system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hexmoor, Henry H.; Underwood, William E., Jr.

1989-01-01

Flexible robotic systems for space applications need to use local information to guide their action in uncertain environments where the state of the environment and even the goals may change. They have to be tolerant of unexpected events and robust enough to carry their task to completion. Tactical goals should be modified while maintaining strategic goals. Furthermore, reactive robotic systems need to have a broader view of their environments than sensory-based systems. An architecture and a theory of representation extending the basic cycles of action and perception are described. This scheme allows for dynamic description of the environment and determining purposive and timely action. Applications of this scheme for assembly and repair tasks using a Universal Machine Intelligence RTX robot are being explored, but the ideas are extendable to other domains. The nature of reactivity for sensor-based robotic systems and implementation issues encountered in developing a prototype are discussed.

Using flawed, uncertain, proximate and sparse (FUPS) data in the context of complexity: learning from the case of child mental health.

PubMed

Wolpert, Miranda; Rutter, Harry

2018-06-13

The use of routinely collected data that are flawed and limited to inform service development in healthcare systems needs to be considered, both theoretically and practically, given the reality in many areas of healthcare that only poor-quality data are available for use in complex adaptive systems. Data may be compromised in a range of ways. They may be flawed, due to missing or erroneously recorded entries; uncertain, due to differences in how data items are rated or conceptualised; proximate, in that data items are a proxy for key issues of concern; and sparse, in that a low volume of cases within key subgroups may limit the possibility of statistical inference. The term 'FUPS' is proposed to describe these flawed, uncertain, proximate and sparse datasets. Many of the systems that seek to use FUPS data may be characterised as dynamic and complex, involving a wide range of agents whose actions impact on each other in reverberating ways, leading to feedback and adaptation. The literature on the use of routinely collected data in healthcare is often implicitly premised on the availability of high-quality data to be used in complicated but not necessarily complex systems. This paper presents an example of the use of a FUPS dataset in the complex system of child mental healthcare. The dataset comprised routinely collected data from services that were part of a national service transformation initiative in child mental health from 2011 to 2015. The paper explores the use of this FUPS dataset to support meaningful dialogue between key stakeholders, including service providers, funders and users, in relation to outcomes of services. There is a particular focus on the potential for service improvement and learning. The issues raised and principles for practice suggested have relevance for other health communities that similarly face the dilemma of how to address the gap between the ideal of comprehensive clear data used in complicated, but not complex, contexts, and the reality of FUPS data in the context of complexity.

Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

Safe Exploration Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning Controllers.

PubMed

Mannucci, Tommaso; van Kampen, Erik-Jan; de Visser, Cornelis; Chu, Qiping

2018-04-01

Self-learning approaches, such as reinforcement learning, offer new possibilities for autonomous control of uncertain or time-varying systems. However, exploring an unknown environment under limited prediction capabilities is a challenge for a learning agent. If the environment is dangerous, free exploration can result in physical damage or in an otherwise unacceptable behavior. With respect to existing methods, the main contribution of this paper is the definition of a new approach that does not require global safety functions, nor specific formulations of the dynamics or of the environment, but relies on interval estimation of the dynamics of the agent during the exploration phase, assuming a limited capability of the agent to perceive the presence of incoming fatal states. Two algorithms are presented with this approach. The first is the Safety Handling Exploration with Risk Perception Algorithm (SHERPA), which provides safety by individuating temporary safety functions, called backups. SHERPA is shown in a simulated, simplified quadrotor task, for which dangerous states are avoided. The second algorithm, denominated OptiSHERPA, can safely handle more dynamically complex systems for which SHERPA is not sufficient through the use of safety metrics. An application of OptiSHERPA is simulated on an aircraft altitude control task.

Adaptive control of a quadrotor aerial vehicle with input constraints and uncertain parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Trong-Toan; Ge, Shuzhi Sam; He, Wei

2018-05-01

In this paper, we address the problem of adaptive bounded control for the trajectory tracking of a Quadrotor Aerial Vehicle (QAV) while the input saturations and uncertain parameters with the known bounds are simultaneously taken into account. First, to deal with the underactuated property of the QAV model, we decouple and construct the QAV model as a cascaded structure which consists of two fully actuated subsystems. Second, to handle the input constraints and uncertain parameters, we use a combination of the smooth saturation function and smooth projection operator in the control design. Third, to ensure the stability of the overall system of the QAV, we develop the technique for the cascaded system in the presence of both the input constraints and uncertain parameters. Finally, the region of stability of the closed-loop system is constructed explicitly, and our design ensures the asymptotic convergence of the tracking errors to the origin. The simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Set-theoretic estimation of hybrid system configurations.

PubMed

Benazera, Emmanuel; Travé-Massuyès, Louise

2009-10-01

Hybrid systems serve as a powerful modeling paradigm for representing complex continuous controlled systems that exhibit discrete switches in their dynamics. The system and the models of the system are nondeterministic due to operation in uncertain environment. Bayesian belief update approaches to stochastic hybrid system state estimation face a blow up in the number of state estimates. Therefore, most popular techniques try to maintain an approximation of the true belief state by either sampling or maintaining a limited number of trajectories. These limitations can be avoided by using bounded intervals to represent the state uncertainty. This alternative leads to splitting the continuous state space into a finite set of possibly overlapping geometrical regions that together with the system modes form configurations of the hybrid system. As a consequence, the true system state can be captured by a finite number of hybrid configurations. A set of dedicated algorithms that can efficiently compute these configurations is detailed. Results are presented on two systems of the hybrid system literature.

Dynamics of the Coupled Human-climate System Resulting from Closed-loop Control of Solar Geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Keith, David

2014-07-08

If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM, in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response; this would also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. This feedback creates an emergent coupled human-climate system, with entirely new dynamics. In addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a simple box-diffusion dynamic model tomore » understand how changing feedback-control parameters and time delay affect the behavior of this coupled natural-human system, and verify these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain), but a delayed response needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM could respond to uncertain changes.« less

A robust momentum management and attitude control system for the space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Speyer, J. L.; Rhee, Ihnseok

1991-01-01

A game theoretic controller is synthesized for momentum management and attitude control of the Space Station in the presence of uncertainties in the moments of inertia. Full state information is assumed since attitude rates are assumed to be very assurately measured. By an input-output decomposition of the uncertainty in the system matrices, the parameter uncertainties in the dynamic system are represented as an unknown gain associated with an internal feedback loop (IFL). The input and output matrices associated with the IFL form directions through which the uncertain parameters affect system response. If the quadratic form of the IFL output augments the cost criterion, then enhanced parameter robustness is anticipated. By considering the input and the input disturbance from the IFL as two noncooperative players, a linear-quadratic differential game is constructed. The solution in the form of a linear controller is used for synthesis. Inclusion of the external disturbance torques results in a dynamic feedback controller which consists of conventional PID (proportional integral derivative) control and cyclic disturbance rejection filters. It is shown that the game theoretic design allows large variations in the inertias in directions of importance.

Decentralized Adaptive Neural Output-Feedback DSC for Switched Large-Scale Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Lijun Long; Jun Zhao

2017-04-01

In this paper, for a class of switched large-scale uncertain nonlinear systems with unknown control coefficients and unmeasurable states, a switched-dynamic-surface-based decentralized adaptive neural output-feedback control approach is developed. The approach proposed extends the classical dynamic surface control (DSC) technique for nonswitched version to switched version by designing switched first-order filters, which overcomes the problem of multiple "explosion of complexity." Also, a dual common coordinates transformation of all subsystems is exploited to avoid individual coordinate transformations for subsystems that are required when applying the backstepping recursive design scheme. Nussbaum-type functions are utilized to handle the unknown control coefficients, and a switched neural network observer is constructed to estimate the unmeasurable states. Combining with the average dwell time method and backstepping and the DSC technique, decentralized adaptive neural controllers of subsystems are explicitly designed. It is proved that the approach provided can guarantee the semiglobal uniformly ultimately boundedness for all the signals in the closed-loop system under a class of switching signals with average dwell time, and the tracking errors to a small neighborhood of the origin. A two inverted pendulums system is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method proposed.

Optimal control of nonlinear continuous-time systems in strict-feedback form.

PubMed

Zargarzadeh, Hassan; Dierks, Travis; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2015-10-01

This paper proposes a novel optimal tracking control scheme for nonlinear continuous-time systems in strict-feedback form with uncertain dynamics. The optimal tracking problem is transformed into an equivalent optimal regulation problem through a feedforward adaptive control input that is generated by modifying the standard backstepping technique. Subsequently, a neural network-based optimal control scheme is introduced to estimate the cost, or value function, over an infinite horizon for the resulting nonlinear continuous-time systems in affine form when the internal dynamics are unknown. The estimated cost function is then used to obtain the optimal feedback control input; therefore, the overall optimal control input for the nonlinear continuous-time system in strict-feedback form includes the feedforward plus the optimal feedback terms. It is shown that the estimated cost function minimizes the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman estimation error in a forward-in-time manner without using any value or policy iterations. Finally, optimal output feedback control is introduced through the design of a suitable observer. Lyapunov theory is utilized to show the overall stability of the proposed schemes without requiring an initial admissible controller. Simulation examples are provided to validate the theoretical results.

Robust momentum management and attitude control system for the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhee, Ihnseok; Speyer, Jason L.

1992-01-01

A game theoretic controller is synthesized for momentum management and attitude control of the Space Station in the presence of uncertainties in the moments of inertia. Full state information is assumed since attitude rates are assumed to be very accurately measured. By an input-output decomposition of the uncertainty in the system matrices, the parameter uncertainties in the dynamic system are represented as an unknown gain associated with an internal feedback loop (IFL). The input and output matrices associated with the IFL form directions through which the uncertain parameters affect system response. If the quadratic form of the IFL output augments the cost criterion, then enhanced parameter robustness is anticipated. By considering the input and the input disturbance from the IFL as two noncooperative players, a linear-quadratic differential game is constructed. The solution in the form of a linear controller is used for synthesis. Inclusion of the external disturbance torques results in a dynamic feedback controller which consists of conventional PID (proportional integral derivative) control and cyclic disturbance rejection filters. It is shown that the game theoretic design allows large variations in the inertias in directions of importance.

Single-photon decision maker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

2015-08-01

Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of Subsurface Flow Parameters to Gravimetric Variations During Pumping Tests in Unconfined Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maina, Fadji Zaouna; Guadagnini, Alberto

2018-01-01

We study the contribution of typically uncertain subsurface flow parameters to gravity changes that can be recorded during pumping tests in unconfined aquifers. We do so in the framework of a Global Sensitivity Analysis and quantify the effects of uncertainty of such parameters on the first four statistical moments of the probability distribution of gravimetric variations induced by the operation of the well. System parameters are grouped into two main categories, respectively, governing groundwater flow in the unsaturated and saturated portions of the domain. We ground our work on the three-dimensional analytical model proposed by Mishra and Neuman (2011), which fully takes into account the richness of the physical process taking place across the unsaturated and saturated zones and storage effects in a finite radius pumping well. The relative influence of model parameter uncertainties on drawdown, moisture content, and gravity changes are quantified through (a) the Sobol' indices, derived from a classical decomposition of variance and (b) recently developed indices quantifying the relative contribution of each uncertain model parameter to the (ensemble) mean, skewness, and kurtosis of the model output. Our results document (i) the importance of the effects of the parameters governing the unsaturated flow dynamics on the mean and variance of local drawdown and gravity changes; (ii) the marked sensitivity (as expressed in terms of the statistical moments analyzed) of gravity changes to the employed water retention curve model parameter, specific yield, and storage, and (iii) the influential role of hydraulic conductivity of the unsaturated and saturated zones to the skewness and kurtosis of gravimetric variation distributions. The observed temporal dynamics of the strength of the relative contribution of system parameters to gravimetric variations suggest that gravity data have a clear potential to provide useful information for estimating the key hydraulic parameters of the system.

A breakthrough in neuroscience needs a "Nebulous Cartesian System" Oscillations, quantum dynamics and chaos in the brain and vegetative system.

PubMed

Başar, Erol; Güntekin, Bahar

2007-04-01

The Cartesian System is a fundamental conceptual and analytical framework related and interwoven with the concept and applications of Newtonian Dynamics. In order to analyze quantum processes physicist moved to a Probabilistic Cartesian System in which the causality principle became a probabilistic one. This means the trajectories of particles (obeying quantum rules) can be described only with the concept of cloudy wave packets. The approach to the brain-body-mind problem requires more than the prerequisite of modern physics and quantum dynamics. In the analysis of the brain-body-mind construct we have to include uncertain causalities and consequently multiple uncertain causalities. These multiple causalities originate from (1) nonlinear properties of the vegetative system (e.g. irregularities in biochemical transmitters, cardiac output, turbulences in the vascular system, respiratory apnea, nonlinear oscillatory interactions in peristalsis); (2) nonlinear behavior of the neuronal electricity (e.g. chaotic behavior measured by EEG), (3) genetic modulations, and (4) additional to these physiological entities nonlinear properties of physical processes in the body. The brain shows deterministic chaos with a correlation dimension of approx. D(2)=6, the smooth muscles approx. D(2)=3. According to these facts we propose a hyper-probabilistic approach or a hyper-probabilistic Cartesian System to describe and analyze the processes in the brain-body-mind system. If we add aspects as our sentiments, emotions and creativity to this construct, better said to this already hyper-probabilistic construct, this "New Cartesian System" is more than hyper-probabilistic, it is a nebulous system, we can predict the future only in a nebulous way; however, despite this chain of reasoning we can still provide predictions on brain-body-mind incorporations. We tentatively assume that the processes or mechanisms of the brain-body-mind system can be analyzed and predicted similar to the metaphor of "finding the walking path in a cloudy or foggy day". This is meant by stating "The Nebulous Cartesian System" (NCS). Descartes, at his time undertaking his genius step, did not possess the knowledge of today's physiology and modern physics; we think that the time has come to consider such a New Cartesian System. To deal with this, we propose the utilization of the Heisenberg S-Matrix and a modified version of the Feynman Diagrams which we call "Brain Feynman Diagrams". Another metaphor to consider within the oscillatory approach of the NCS is the "string theory". We also emphasize that fundamental steps should be undertaken in order to create the own dynamical framework of the brain-body-mind incorporation; suggestions or metaphors from physics and mathematics are useful; however, the grammar of the brains intrinsic language must be understood with the help of a new biologically founded, adaptive-probabilistic Cartesian system. This new Cartesian System will undergo mutations and transcend to the philosophy of Henri Bergson in parallel to the Evolution theory of Charles Darwin to open gateways for approaching the brain-body-mind problem.

A Truthful Incentive Mechanism for Online Recruitment in Mobile Crowd Sensing System

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiao; Liu, Min; Zhou, Yaqin; Li, Zhongcheng; Chen, Shuang; He, Xiangnan

2017-01-01

We investigate emerging mobile crowd sensing (MCS) systems, in which new cloud-based platforms sequentially allocate homogenous sensing jobs to dynamically-arriving users with uncertain service qualities. Given that human beings are selfish in nature, it is crucial yet challenging to design an efficient and truthful incentive mechanism to encourage users to participate. To address the challenge, we propose a novel truthful online auction mechanism that can efficiently learn to make irreversible online decisions on winner selections for new MCS systems without requiring previous knowledge of users. Moreover, we theoretically prove that our incentive possesses truthfulness, individual rationality and computational efficiency. Extensive simulation results under both real and synthetic traces demonstrate that our incentive mechanism can reduce the payment of the platform, increase the utility of the platform and social welfare. PMID:28045441

Bellman Continuum (3rd) International Workshop (13-14 June 1988)

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-01

Modelling Uncertain Problem ................. 53 David Bensoussan ,---,>Asymptotic Linearization of Uncertain Multivariable Systems by Sliding Modes...K. Ghosh .-. Robust Model Tracking for a Class of Singularly Perturbed Nonlinear Systems via Composite Control ....... 93 F. Garofalo and L. Glielmo...MODELISATION ET COMMANDE EN ECONOMIE MODELS AND CONTROL POLICIES IN ECONOMICS Qualitative Differential Games : A Viability Approach ............. 117

Adaptive Control for Uncertain Nonlinear Multi-Input Multi-Output Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cao, Chengyu (Inventor); Hovakimyan, Naira (Inventor); Xargay, Enric (Inventor)

2014-01-01

Systems and methods of adaptive control for uncertain nonlinear multi-input multi-output systems in the presence of significant unmatched uncertainty with assured performance are provided. The need for gain-scheduling is eliminated through the use of bandwidth-limited (low-pass) filtering in the control channel, which appropriately attenuates the high frequencies typically appearing in fast adaptation situations and preserves the robustness margins in the presence of fast adaptation.

Control design for robust stability in linear regulators: Application to aerospace flight control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yedavalli, R. K.

1986-01-01

Time domain stability robustness analysis and design for linear multivariable uncertain systems with bounded uncertainties is the central theme of the research. After reviewing the recently developed upper bounds on the linear elemental (structured), time varying perturbation of an asymptotically stable linear time invariant regulator, it is shown that it is possible to further improve these bounds by employing state transformations. Then introducing a quantitative measure called the stability robustness index, a state feedback conrol design algorithm is presented for a general linear regulator problem and then specialized to the case of modal systems as well as matched systems. The extension of the algorithm to stochastic systems with Kalman filter as the state estimator is presented. Finally an algorithm for robust dynamic compensator design is presented using Parameter Optimization (PO) procedure. Applications in a aircraft control and flexible structure control are presented along with a comparison with other existing methods.

Response to ``Comment on `Adaptive Q-S (lag, anticipated, and complete) time-varying synchronization and parameters identification of uncertain delayed neural networks''' [Chaos 17, 038101 (2007)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wenwu; Cao, Jinde

2007-09-01

Parameter identification of dynamical systems from time series has received increasing interest due to its wide applications in secure communication, pattern recognition, neural networks, and so on. Given the driving system, parameters can be estimated from the time series by using an adaptive control algorithm. Recently, it has been reported that for some stable systems, in which parameters are difficult to be identified [Li et al., Phys Lett. A 333, 269-270 (2004); Remark 5 in Yu and Cao, Physica A 375, 467-482 (2007); and Li et al., Chaos 17, 038101 (2007)], and in this paper, a brief discussion about whether parameters can be identified from time series is investigated. From some detailed analyses, the problem of why parameters of stable systems can be hardly estimated is discussed. Some interesting examples are drawn to verify the proposed analysis.

Composite Intelligent Learning Control of Strict-Feedback Systems With Disturbance.

PubMed

Xu, Bin; Sun, Fuchun

2018-02-01

This paper addresses the dynamic surface control of uncertain nonlinear systems on the basis of composite intelligent learning and disturbance observer in presence of unknown system nonlinearity and time-varying disturbance. The serial-parallel estimation model with intelligent approximation and disturbance estimation is built to obtain the prediction error and in this way the composite law for weights updating is constructed. The nonlinear disturbance observer is developed using intelligent approximation information while the disturbance estimation is guaranteed to converge to a bounded compact set. The highlight is that different from previous work directly toward asymptotic stability, the transparency of the intelligent approximation and disturbance estimation is included in the control scheme. The uniformly ultimate boundedness stability is analyzed via Lyapunov method. Through simulation verification, the composite intelligent learning with disturbance observer can efficiently estimate the effect caused by system nonlinearity and disturbance while the proposed approach obtains better performance with higher accuracy.

Robust stabilization of underactuated nonlinear systems: A fast terminal sliding mode approach.

PubMed

Khan, Qudrat; Akmeliawati, Rini; Bhatti, Aamer Iqbal; Khan, Mahmood Ashraf

2017-01-01

This paper presents a fast terminal sliding mode based control design strategy for a class of uncertain underactuated nonlinear systems. Strategically, this development encompasses those electro-mechanical underactuated systems which can be transformed into the so-called regular form. The novelty of the proposed technique lies in the hierarchical development of a fast terminal sliding attractor design for the considered class. Having established sliding mode along the designed manifold, the close loop dynamics become finite time stable which, consequently, result in high precision. In addition, the adverse effects of the chattering phenomenon are reduced via strong reachability condition and the robustness of the system against uncertainties is confirmed theoretically. A simulation as well as experimental study of an inverted pendulum is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed technique. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust Stabilization of Uncertain Systems Based on Energy Dissipation Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Sandeep

1996-01-01

Robust stability conditions obtained through generalization of the notion of energy dissipation in physical systems are discussed in this report. Linear time-invariant (LTI) systems which dissipate energy corresponding to quadratic power functions are characterized in the time-domain and the frequency-domain, in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMls) and algebraic Riccati equations (ARE's). A novel characterization of strictly dissipative LTI systems is introduced in this report. Sufficient conditions in terms of dissipativity and strict dissipativity are presented for (1) stability of the feedback interconnection of dissipative LTI systems, (2) stability of dissipative LTI systems with memoryless feedback nonlinearities, and (3) quadratic stability of uncertain linear systems. It is demonstrated that the framework of dissipative LTI systems investigated in this report unifies and extends small gain, passivity, and sector conditions for stability. Techniques for selecting power functions for characterization of uncertain plants and robust controller synthesis based on these stability results are introduced. A spring-mass-damper example is used to illustrate the application of these methods for robust controller synthesis.

Adaptive Optimal Control Using Frequency Selective Information of the System Uncertainty With Application to Unmanned Aircraft.

PubMed

Maity, Arnab; Hocht, Leonhard; Heise, Christian; Holzapfel, Florian

2018-01-01

A new efficient adaptive optimal control approach is presented in this paper based on the indirect model reference adaptive control (MRAC) architecture for improvement of adaptation and tracking performance of the uncertain system. The system accounts here for both matched and unmatched unknown uncertainties that can act as plant as well as input effectiveness failures or damages. For adaptation of the unknown parameters of these uncertainties, the frequency selective learning approach is used. Its idea is to compute a filtered expression of the system uncertainty using multiple filters based on online instantaneous information, which is used for augmentation of the update law. It is capable of adjusting a sudden change in system dynamics without depending on high adaptation gains and can satisfy exponential parameter error convergence under certain conditions in the presence of structured matched and unmatched uncertainties as well. Additionally, the controller of the MRAC system is designed using a new optimal control method. This method is a new linear quadratic regulator-based optimal control formulation for both output regulation and command tracking problems. It provides a closed-form control solution. The proposed overall approach is applied in a control of lateral dynamics of an unmanned aircraft problem to show its effectiveness.

Chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems using composite nonlinear feedback based integral sliding mode control.

PubMed

Mobayen, Saleh

2018-06-01

This paper proposes a combination of composite nonlinear feedback and integral sliding mode techniques for fast and accurate chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems with Lipschitz nonlinear functions, time-varying delays and disturbances. The composite nonlinear feedback method allows accurate following of the master chaotic system and the integral sliding mode control provides invariance property which rejects the perturbations and preserves the stability of the closed-loop system. Based on the Lyapunov- Krasovskii stability theory and linear matrix inequalities, a novel sufficient condition is offered for the chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems. This method not only guarantees the robustness against perturbations and time-delays, but also eliminates reaching phase and avoids chattering problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the suggested procedure leads to a great control performance. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How uncertain is model-based prediction of copper loads in stormwater runoff?

PubMed

Lindblom, E; Ahlman, S; Mikkelsen, P S

2007-01-01

In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of the uncertainty related with estimating the total load of pollution (copper) from a separate stormwater drainage system, conditioned on a specific combination of input data, a dynamic conceptual pollutant accumulation-washout model and measurements (runoff volumes and pollutant masses). We use the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology and generate posterior parameter distributions that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the highly variable measurements. Given the applied pollution accumulation-washout model and a total of 57 measurements during one month, the total predicted copper masses can be predicted within a range of +/-50% of the median value. The message is that this relatively large uncertainty should be acknowledged in connection with posting statements about micropollutant loads as estimated from dynamic models, even when calibrated with on-site concentration data.

Lyapunov-based control of limit cycle oscillations in uncertain aircraft systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bialy, Brendan

Store-induced limit cycle oscillations (LCO) affect several fighter aircraft and is expected to remain an issue for next generation fighters. LCO arises from the interaction of aerodynamic and structural forces, however the primary contributor to the phenomenon is still unclear. The practical concerns regarding this phenomenon include whether or not ordnance can be safely released and the ability of the aircrew to perform mission-related tasks while in an LCO condition. The focus of this dissertation is the development of control strategies to suppress LCO in aircraft systems. The first contribution of this work (Chapter 2) is the development of a controller consisting of a continuous Robust Integral of the Sign of the Error (RISE) feedback term with a neural network (NN) feedforward term to suppress LCO behavior in an uncertain airfoil system. The second contribution of this work (Chapter 3) is the extension of the development in Chapter 2 to include actuator saturation. Suppression of LCO behavior is achieved through the implementation of an auxiliary error system that features hyperbolic functions and a saturated RISE feedback control structure. Due to the lack of clarity regarding the driving mechanism behind LCO, common practice in literature and in Chapters 2 and 3 is to replicate the symptoms of LCO by including nonlinearities in the wing structure, typically a nonlinear torsional stiffness. To improve the accuracy of the system model a partial differential equation (PDE) model of a flexible wing is derived (see Appendix F) using Hamilton's principle. Chapters 4 and 5 are focused on developing boundary control strategies for regulating the bending and twisting deformations of the derived model. The contribution of Chapter 4 is the construction of a backstepping-based boundary control strategy for a linear PDE model of an aircraft wing. The backstepping-based strategy transforms the original system to a exponentially stable system. A Lyapunov-based stability analysis is then used to show boundedness of the wing bending dynamics. A Lyapunov-based boundary control strategy for an uncertain nonlinear PDE model of an aircraft wing is developed in Chapter 5. In this chapter, a proportional feedback term is coupled with an gradient-based adaptive update law to ensure asymptotic regulation of the flexible states.

Predictive sufficiency and the use of stored internal state

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musliner, David J.; Durfee, Edmund H.; Shin, Kang G.

1994-01-01

In all embedded computing systems, some delay exists between sensing and acting. By choosing an action based on sensed data, a system is essentially predicting that there will be no significant changes in the world during this delay. However, the dynamic and uncertain nature of the real world can make these predictions incorrect, and thus, a system may execute inappropriate actions. Making systems more reactive by decreasing the gap between sensing and action leaves less time for predictions to err, but still provides no principled assurance that they will be correct. Using the concept of predictive sufficiency described in this paper, a system can prove that its predictions are valid, and that it will never execute inappropriate actions. In the context of our CIRCA system, we also show how predictive sufficiency allows a system to guarantee worst-case response times to changes in its environment. Using predictive sufficiency, CIRCA is able to build real-time reactive control plans which provide a sound basis for performance guarantees that are unavailable with other reactive systems.

Robust preview control for a class of uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Li, Li; Liao, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This paper proposes a concept of robust preview tracking control for uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay. Firstly, a model transformation is employed for an uncertain discrete system with time-varying delay. Then, the auxiliary variables related to the system state and input are introduced to derive an augmented error system that includes future information on the reference signal. This leads to the tracking problem being transformed into a regulator problem. Finally, for the augmented error system, a sufficient condition of asymptotic stability is derived and the preview controller design method is proposed based on the scaled small gain theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. The method proposed in this paper not only solves the difficulty problem of applying the difference operator to the time-varying matrices but also simplifies the structure of the augmented error system. The numerical simulation example also illustrates the effectiveness of the results presented in the paper. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear neural control with power systems applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dingguo

1998-12-01

Extensive studies have been undertaken on the transient stability of large interconnected power systems with flexible ac transmission systems (FACTS) devices installed. Varieties of control methodologies have been proposed to stabilize the postfault system which would otherwise eventually lose stability without a proper control. Generally speaking, regular transient stability is well understood, but the mechanism of load-driven voltage instability or voltage collapse has not been well understood. The interaction of generator dynamics and load dynamics makes synthesis of stabilizing controllers even more challenging. There is currently increasing interest in the research of neural networks as identifiers and controllers for dealing with dynamic time-varying nonlinear systems. This study focuses on the development of novel artificial neural network architectures for identification and control with application to dynamic electric power systems so that the stability of the interconnected power systems, following large disturbances, and/or with the inclusion of uncertain loads, can be largely enhanced, and stable operations are guaranteed. The latitudinal neural network architecture is proposed for the purpose of system identification. It may be used for identification of nonlinear static/dynamic loads, which can be further used for static/dynamic voltage stability analysis. The properties associated with this architecture are investigated. A neural network methodology is proposed for dealing with load modeling and voltage stability analysis. Based on the neural network models of loads, voltage stability analysis evolves, and modal analysis is performed. Simulation results are also provided. The transient stability problem is studied with consideration of load effects. The hierarchical neural control scheme is developed. Trajectory-following policy is used so that the hierarchical neural controller performs as almost well for non-nominal cases as they do for the nominal cases. The adaptive hierarchical neural control scheme is also proposed to deal with the time-varying nature of loads. Further, adaptive neural control, which is based on the on-line updating of the weights and biases of the neural networks, is studied. Simulations provided on the faulted power systems with unknown loads suggest that the proposed adaptive hierarchical neural control schemes should be useful for practical power applications.

The Ruinous Influence of Close Binary Companions on Planetary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraus, Adam L.; Ireland, Michael; Mann, Andrew; Huber, Daniel; Dupuy, Trent J.

2017-01-01

The majority of solar-type stars are found in binary systems, and the dynamical influence of binary companions is expected to profoundly influence planetary systems. However, the difficulty of identifying planets in binary systems has left the magnitude of this effect uncertain; despite numerous theoretical hurdles to their formation and survival, at least some binary systems clearly host planets. We present high-resolution imaging of nearly 500 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) obtained using adaptive-optics imaging and nonredundant aperture-mask interferometry on the Keck II telescope. We super-resolve some binary systems to projected separations of under 5 AU, showing that planets might form in these dynamically active environments. However, the full distribution of projected separations for our planet-host sample more broadly reveals a deep paucity of binary companions at solar-system scales. When the binary population is parametrized with a semimajor axis cutoff a cut and a suppression factor inside that cutoff S bin, we find with correlated uncertainties that inside acut = 47 +59/-23 AU, the planet occurrence rate in binary systems is only Sbin = 0.34 +0.14/-0.15 times that of wider binaries or single stars. Our results demonstrate that a fifth of all solar-type stars in the Milky Way are disallowed from hosting planetary systems due to the influence of a binary companion.

The Ruinous Influence of Close Binary Companions on Planetary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraus, Adam L.; Ireland, Michael; Mann, Andrew; Huber, Daniel; Dupuy, Trent J.

2017-06-01

The majority of solar-type stars are found in binary systems, and the dynamical influence of binary companions is expected to profoundly influence planetary systems. However, the difficulty of identifying planets in binary systems has left the magnitude of this effect uncertain; despite numerous theoretical hurdles to their formation and survival, at least some binary systems clearly host planets. We present high-resolution imaging of nearly 500 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) obtained using adaptive-optics imaging and nonredundant aperture-mask interferometry on the Keck II telescope. We super-resolve some binary systems to projected separations of under 5 AU, showing that planets might form in these dynamically active environments. However, the full distribution of projected separations for our planet-host sample more broadly reveals a deep paucity of binary companions at solar-system scales. When the binary population is parametrized with a semimajor axis cutoff a cut and a suppression factor inside that cutoff S bin, we find with correlated uncertainties that inside acut = 47 +59/-23 AU, the planet occurrence rate in binary systems is only Sbin = 0.34+0.14/-0.15 times that of wider binaries or single stars. Our results demonstrate that a fifth of all solar-type stars in the Milky Way are disallowed from hosting planetary systems due to the influence of a binary companion.

Ecological resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Garmestiani, Ahjond S.; Sundstrom, Shana; Angeler, David G.

2016-01-01

Resilience is the capacity of complex systems of people and nature to withstand disturbance without shifting into an alternate regime, or a different type of system organized around different processes and structures (Holling, 1973). Resilience theory was developed to explain the non-linear dynamics of complex adaptive systems, like social-ecological systems (SES) (Walker & Salt, 2006). It is often apparent when the resilience of a SES has been exceeded as the system discernibly changes, such as when a thriving city shifts into a poverty trap, but it is difficult to predict when that shift might occur because of the non-linear dynamics of complex systems. Ecological resilience should not be confused with engineering resilience (Angeler & Allen, 2016), which emphasizes the ability of a SES to perform a specific task consistently and predictably, and to re-establish performance quickly should a disturbance occur. Engineering resilience assumes that complex systems are characterized by a single equilibrium state, and this assumption is not appropriate for complex adaptive systems such as SES. In the risk governance context this means that compounded perturbations derived from hazards or global change can have unexpected and highly uncertain effects on natural resources, humans and societies. These effects can manifest in regime shifts, potentially spurring environmental degradation that might lock SES in an undesirable system state that can be difficult to reverse, and as a consequence economic crises, conflict, human health problems.

Effective production planning for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand: MRP Vs demand-driven MRP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shofa, M. J.; Moeis, A. O.; Restiana, N.

2018-04-01

MRP as a production planning system is appropriate for the deterministic environment. Unfortunately, most production systems such as customer demands are stochastic, so that MRP is inappropriate at the time. Demand-Driven MRP (DDMRP) is new approach for production planning system dealing with demand uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to compare the MRP and DDMRP for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand in terms of average inventory levels. The evaluation is conducted through a discrete event simulation with the long lead time and uncertain demand scenarios. The next step is evaluating the performance of DDMRP by comparing the inventory level of DDMRP with MRP. As result, DDMRP is more effective production planning than MRP in terms of average inventory levels.

Robust linear quadratic designs with respect to parameter uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Joel; Athans, Michael

1992-01-01

The authors derive a linear quadratic regulator (LQR) which is robust to parametric uncertainty by using the overbounding method of I. R. Petersen and C. V. Hollot (1986). The resulting controller is determined from the solution of a single modified Riccati equation. It is shown that, when applied to a structural system, the controller gains add robustness by minimizing the potential energy of uncertain stiffness elements, and minimizing the rate of dissipation of energy through uncertain damping elements. A worst-case disturbance in the direction of the uncertainty is also considered. It is proved that performance robustness has been increased with the robust LQR when compared to a mismatched LQR design where the controller is designed on the nominal system, but applied to the actual uncertain system.

Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

2017-12-01

Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

Improved prescribed performance control for air-breathing hypersonic vehicles with unknown deadzone input nonlinearity.

PubMed

Wang, Yingyang; Hu, Jianbo

2018-05-19

An improved prescribed performance controller is proposed for the longitudinal model of an air-breathing hypersonic vehicle (AHV) subject to uncertain dynamics and input nonlinearity. Different from the traditional non-affine model requiring non-affine functions to be differentiable, this paper utilizes a semi-decomposed non-affine model with non-affine functions being locally semi-bounded and possibly in-differentiable. A new error transformation combined with novel prescribed performance functions is proposed to bypass complex deductions caused by conventional error constraint approaches and circumvent high frequency chattering in control inputs. On the basis of backstepping technique, the improved prescribed performance controller with low structural and computational complexity is designed. The methodology guarantees the altitude and velocity tracking error within transient and steady state performance envelopes and presents excellent robustness against uncertain dynamics and deadzone input nonlinearity. Simulation results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Courses of action for effects based operations using evolutionary algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haider, Sajjad; Levis, Alexander H.

2006-05-01

This paper presents an Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) based approach to identify effective courses of action (COAs) in Effects Based Operations. The approach uses Timed Influence Nets (TINs) as the underlying mathematical model to capture a dynamic uncertain situation. TINs provide a concise graph-theoretic probabilistic approach to specify the cause and effect relationships that exist among the variables of interest (actions, desired effects, and other uncertain events) in a problem domain. The purpose of building these TIN models is to identify and analyze several alternative courses of action. The current practice is to use trial and error based techniques which are not only labor intensive but also produce sub-optimal results and are not capable of modeling constraints among actionable events. The EA based approach presented in this paper is aimed to overcome these limitations. The approach generates multiple COAs that are close enough in terms of achieving the desired effect. The purpose of generating multiple COAs is to give several alternatives to a decision maker. Moreover, the alternate COAs could be generalized based on the relationships that exist among the actions and their execution timings. The approach also allows a system analyst to capture certain types of constraints among actionable events.

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Geraci, Gianluca; Eldred, Michael S.; Vane, Zachary P.; Lacaze, Guilhem; Oefelein, Joseph C.; Najm, Habib N.

2018-03-01

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the systems stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. These methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

Interactions in Massive Colliding Wind Binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corcoran, M.

2012-01-01

The most massive stars (M> 60 Solar Mass) play crucial roles in altering the chemical and thermodynamic properties of their host galaxies. Stellar mass is the fundamental stellar parameter that determines their ancillary properties and which ultimately determines the fate of these stars and their influence on their galactic environs. Unfortunately, stellar mass becomes observationally and theoretically less well constrained as it increases. Theory becomes uncertain mostly because very massive stars are prone to strong, variable mass loss which is difficult to model. Observational constraints are uncertain too. Massive stars are rare, and massive binary stars (needed for dynamical determination of mass) are rarer still: and of these systems only a fraction have suitably high orbital inclinations for direct photometric and spectroscopic radial-velocity analysis. Even in the small number of cases in which a high-inclination binary near the upper mass limit can be identified, rotational broadening and contamination of spectral line features from thick circumstellar material (either natal clouds or produced by strong stellar wind driven mass loss from one or both of he stellar components) biases the analysis. In the wilds of the upper HR diagram, we're often left with indirect and circumstantial means of determining mass, a rather unsatisfactory state of affairs.

Trained Eyes: Experience Promotes Adaptive Gaze Control in Dynamic and Uncertain Visual Environments

PubMed Central

Taya, Shuichiro; Windridge, David; Osman, Magda

2013-01-01

Current eye-tracking research suggests that our eyes make anticipatory movements to a location that is relevant for a forthcoming task. Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that with more practice anticipatory gaze control can improve. However, these findings are largely limited to situations where participants are actively engaged in a task. We ask: does experience modulate anticipative gaze control while passively observing a visual scene? To tackle this we tested people with varying degrees of experience of tennis, in order to uncover potential associations between experience and eye movement behaviour while they watched tennis videos. The number, size, and accuracy of saccades (rapid eye-movements) made around ‘events,’ which is critical for the scene context (i.e. hit and bounce) were analysed. Overall, we found that experience improved anticipatory eye-movements while watching tennis clips. In general, those with extensive experience showed greater accuracy of saccades to upcoming event locations; this was particularly prevalent for events in the scene that carried high uncertainty (i.e. ball bounces). The results indicate that, even when passively observing, our gaze control system utilizes prior relevant knowledge in order to anticipate upcoming uncertain event locations. PMID:23951147

Minimizing the regrets of long-term urban floodplain management decisions under deeply uncertain climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, J. S.; Kirshen, P. H.; Vogel, R. M.

2016-12-01

Making long-term floodplain management decisions under uncertain climate change is a major urban planning challenge of the 21stcentury. To support these efforts, we introduce a screening-level optimization model that identifies adaptation portfolios by minimizing the regrets associated with their flood-control and damage costs under different climate change trajectories that are deeply uncertain, i.e. have probabilities that cannot be specified plausibly. This mixed integer program explicitly considers the coupled damage-reduction impacts of different floodwall designs and property-scale investments (first-floor elevation, wet floodproofing of basements, permanent retreat and insurance), recommends implementation schedules, and assesses impacts to stakeholders residing in three types of homes. An application to a stylized municipality illuminates many nonlinear system dynamics stemming from large fixed capital costs, infrastructure design thresholds, and discharge-depth-damage relationships. If stakeholders tolerate mild damage, floodwalls that fully protect a community from large design events are less cost-effective than portfolios featuring both smaller floodwalls and property-scale measures. Potential losses of property tax revenue from permanent retreat motivate municipal property-tax initiatives for adaptation financing. Yet, insurance incentives for first-floor elevation may discourage locally financed floodwalls, in turn making lower-income residents more vulnerable to severe flooding. A budget constraint analysis underscores the benefits of flexible floodwall designs with low incremental expansion costs while near-optimal solutions demonstrate the scheduling flexibility of many property-scale measures. Finally, an equity analysis shows the importance of evaluating the overpayment and under-design regrets of recommended adaptation portfolios for each stakeholder and contrasts them to single-scenario model results.

Using Multimodal Input for Autonomous Decision Making for Unmanned Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neilan, James H.; Cross, Charles; Rothhaar, Paul; Tran, Loc; Motter, Mark; Qualls, Garry; Trujillo, Anna; Allen, B. Danette

2016-01-01

Autonomous decision making in the presence of uncertainly is a deeply studied problem space particularly in the area of autonomous systems operations for land, air, sea, and space vehicles. Various techniques ranging from single algorithm solutions to complex ensemble classifier systems have been utilized in a research context in solving mission critical flight decisions. Realized systems on actual autonomous hardware, however, is a difficult systems integration problem, constituting a majority of applied robotics development timelines. The ability to reliably and repeatedly classify objects during a vehicles mission execution is vital for the vehicle to mitigate both static and dynamic environmental concerns such that the mission may be completed successfully and have the vehicle operate and return safely. In this paper, the Autonomy Incubator proposes and discusses an ensemble learning and recognition system planned for our autonomous framework, AEON, in selected domains, which fuse decision criteria, using prior experience on both the individual classifier layer and the ensemble layer to mitigate environmental uncertainty during operation.

Temporal Dynamic Controllability Revisited

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Paul H.; Muscettola, Nicola

2005-01-01

An important issue for temporal planners is the ability to handle temporal uncertainty. We revisit the question of how to determine whether a given set of temporal requirements are feasible in the light of uncertain durations of some processes. In particular, we consider how best to determine whether a network is Dynamically Controllable, i.e., whether a dynamic strategy exists for executing the network that is guaranteed to satisfy the requirements. Previous work has shown the existence of a pseudo-polynomial algorithm for testing Dynamic Controllability. Here, we greatly simplify the previous framework, and present a true polynomial algorithm with a cutoff based only on the number of nodes.

Efficient computation of optimal actions.

PubMed

Todorov, Emanuel

2009-07-14

Optimal choice of actions is a fundamental problem relevant to fields as diverse as neuroscience, psychology, economics, computer science, and control engineering. Despite this broad relevance the abstract setting is similar: we have an agent choosing actions over time, an uncertain dynamical system whose state is affected by those actions, and a performance criterion that the agent seeks to optimize. Solving problems of this kind remains hard, in part, because of overly generic formulations. Here, we propose a more structured formulation that greatly simplifies the construction of optimal control laws in both discrete and continuous domains. An exhaustive search over actions is avoided and the problem becomes linear. This yields algorithms that outperform Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning, and thereby solve traditional problems more efficiently. Our framework also enables computations that were not possible before: composing optimal control laws by mixing primitives, applying deterministic methods to stochastic systems, quantifying the benefits of error tolerance, and inferring goals from behavioral data via convex optimization. Development of a general class of easily solvable problems tends to accelerate progress--as linear systems theory has done, for example. Our framework may have similar impact in fields where optimal choice of actions is relevant.

Self-tuning control algorithm design for vehicle adaptive cruise control system through real-time estimation of vehicle parameters and road grade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzbanrad, Javad; Tahbaz-zadeh Moghaddam, Iman

2016-09-01

The main purpose of this paper is to design a self-tuning control algorithm for an adaptive cruise control (ACC) system that can adapt its behaviour to variations of vehicle dynamics and uncertain road grade. To this aim, short-time linear quadratic form (STLQF) estimation technique is developed so as to track simultaneously the trend of the time-varying parameters of vehicle longitudinal dynamics with a small delay. These parameters are vehicle mass, road grade and aerodynamic drag-area coefficient. Next, the values of estimated parameters are used to tune the throttle and brake control inputs and to regulate the throttle/brake switching logic that governs the throttle and brake switching. The performance of the designed STLQF-based self-tuning control (STLQF-STC) algorithm for ACC system is compared with the conventional method based on fixed control structure regarding the speed/distance tracking control modes. Simulation results show that the proposed control algorithm improves the performance of throttle and brake controllers, providing more comfort while travelling, enhancing driving safety and giving a satisfactory performance in the presence of different payloads and road grade variations.

A dynamic method to forecast the wheel slip for antilock braking system and its experimental evaluation.

PubMed

Oniz, Yesim; Kayacan, Erdal; Kaynak, Okyay

2009-04-01

The control of an antilock braking system (ABS) is a difficult problem due to its strongly nonlinear and uncertain characteristics. To overcome this difficulty, the integration of gray-system theory and sliding-mode control is proposed in this paper. This way, the prediction capabilities of the former and the robustness of the latter are combined to regulate optimal wheel slip depending on the vehicle forward velocity. The design approach described is novel, considering that a point, rather than a line, is used as the sliding control surface. The control algorithm is derived and subsequently tested on a quarter vehicle model. Encouraged by the simulation results indicating the ability to overcome the stated difficulties with fast convergence, experimental results are carried out on a laboratory setup. The results presented indicate the potential of the approach in handling difficult real-time control problems.

A real time, FEM based optimal control algorithm and its implementation using parallel processing hardware (transistors) in a microprocessor environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patten, William Neff

1989-01-01

There is an evident need to discover a means of establishing reliable, implementable controls for systems that are plagued by nonlinear and, or uncertain, model dynamics. The development of a generic controller design tool for tough-to-control systems is reported. The method utilizes a moving grid, time infinite element based solution of the necessary conditions that describe an optimal controller for a system. The technique produces a discrete feedback controller. Real time laboratory experiments are now being conducted to demonstrate the viability of the method. The algorithm that results is being implemented in a microprocessor environment. Critical computational tasks are accomplished using a low cost, on-board, multiprocessor (INMOS T800 Transputers) and parallel processing. Progress to date validates the methodology presented. Applications of the technique to the control of highly flexible robotic appendages are suggested.

Fuzzy Adaptive Output Feedback Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems With Prescribed Performance.

PubMed

Zhang, Jin-Xi; Yang, Guang-Hong

2018-05-01

This paper investigates the tracking control problem for a family of strict-feedback systems in the presence of unknown nonlinearities and immeasurable system states. A low-complexity adaptive fuzzy output feedback control scheme is proposed, based on a backstepping method. In the control design, a fuzzy adaptive state observer is first employed to estimate the unmeasured states. Then, a novel error transformation approach together with a new modification mechanism is introduced to guarantee the finite-time convergence of the output error to a predefined region and ensure the closed-loop stability. Compared with the existing methods, the main advantages of our approach are that: 1) without using extra command filters or auxiliary dynamic surface control techniques, the problem of explosion of complexity can still be addressed and 2) the design procedures are independent of the initial conditions. Finally, two practical examples are performed to further illustrate the above theoretic findings.

A methodology for computing uncertainty bounds of multivariable systems based on sector stability theory concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waszak, Martin R.

1992-01-01

The application of a sector-based stability theory approach to the formulation of useful uncertainty descriptions for linear, time-invariant, multivariable systems is explored. A review of basic sector properties and sector-based approach are presented first. The sector-based approach is then applied to several general forms of parameter uncertainty to investigate its advantages and limitations. The results indicate that the sector uncertainty bound can be used effectively to evaluate the impact of parameter uncertainties on the frequency response of the design model. Inherent conservatism is a potential limitation of the sector-based approach, especially for highly dependent uncertain parameters. In addition, the representation of the system dynamics can affect the amount of conservatism reflected in the sector bound. Careful application of the model can help to reduce this conservatism, however, and the solution approach has some degrees of freedom that may be further exploited to reduce the conservatism.

A Structural Characterization of Temporal Dynamic Controllability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Paul

2006-01-01

An important issue for temporal planners is the ability to handle temporal uncertainty. Recent papers have addressed the question of how to tell whether a temporal network is Dynamically Controllable, i.e., whether the temporal requirements are feasible in the light of uncertain durations of some processes. Previous work has presented an O(N5) algorithm for testing this property. Here, we introduce a new analysis of temporal cycles that leads to an O(N4) algorithm.

Extending water vapor trend observations over Boulder into the tropopause region: Trend uncertainties and resulting radiative forcing.

PubMed

Kunz, A; Müller, R; Homonnai, V; Jánosi, I M; Hurst, D; Rap, A; Forster, P M; Rohrer, F; Spelten, N; Riese, M

2013-10-16

Thirty years of balloon-borne measurements over Boulder (40°N, 105°W) are used to investigate the water vapor trend in the tropopause region. This analysis extends previously published trends, usually focusing on altitudes greater than 16 km, to lower altitudes. Two new concepts are applied: (1) Trends are presented in a thermal tropopause (TP) relative coordinate system from -2 km below to 10 km above the TP, and (2) sonde profiles are selected according to TP height. Tropical (TP z > 14 km), extratropical (TP z < 12 km), and transitional air mass types (12 km < TP z < 14 km) reveal three different water vapor reservoirs. The analysis based on these concepts reduces the dynamically induced water vapor variability at the TP and principally favors refined water vapor trend studies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nonetheless, this study shows how uncertain trends are at altitudes -2 to +4 km around the TP. This uncertainty in turn has an influence on the uncertainty and interpretation of water vapor radiative effects at the TP, which are locally estimated for the 30 year period to be of uncertain sign. The much discussed decrease in water vapor at the beginning of 2001 is not detectable between -2 and 2 km around the TP. On lower stratospheric isentropes, the water vapor change at the beginning of 2001 is more intense for extratropical than for tropical air mass types. This suggests a possible link with changing dynamics above the jet stream such as changes in the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

Attitude/attitude-rate estimation from GPS differential phase measurements using integrated-rate parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshman, Yaakov; Markley, Landis

1998-01-01

A sequential filtering algorithm is presented for attitude and attitude-rate estimation from Global Positioning System (GPS) differential carrier phase measurements. A third-order, minimal-parameter method for solving the attitude matrix kinematic equation is used to parameterize the filter's state, which renders the resulting estimator computationally efficient. Borrowing from tracking theory concepts, the angular acceleration is modeled as an exponentially autocorrelated stochastic process, thus avoiding the use of the uncertain spacecraft dynamic model. The new formulation facilitates the use of aiding vector observations in a unified filtering algorithm, which can enhance the method's robustness and accuracy. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the method.

Hexacopter trajectory control using a neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artale, V.; Collotta, M.; Pau, G.; Ricciardello, A.

2013-10-01

The modern flight control systems are complex due to their non-linear nature. In fact, modern aerospace vehicles are expected to have non-conventional flight envelopes and, then, they must guarantee a high level of robustness and adaptability in order to operate in uncertain environments. Neural Networks (NN), with real-time learning capability, for flight control can be used in applications with manned or unmanned aerial vehicles. Indeed, using proven lower level control algorithms with adaptive elements that exhibit long term learning could help in achieving better adaptation performance while performing aggressive maneuvers. In this paper we show a mathematical modeling and a Neural Network for a hexacopter dynamics in order to develop proper methods for stabilization and trajectory control.

Landscape changes and colony site dynamics: How gull-billed terns cope at the sea's edge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, R.M.; Williams, B.; Watts, B.; Truitt, B.; Stotts, D.; Eyler, B.

1996-01-01

Gull-billed Terns have declined dramatically in coastal Virginia over the past 20 years, with apparently low reproductive success. They nest, usually in mixed-species colonies, in two discrete habitat types: large, sandy barrier islands or shell/sandbars on the edges of marsh islands in the lagoon systems. The smaller shell/sandbars seem to provide more consistent nestling habitat and predation pressures than do barrier islands among years. We hypothesize that colony site turnover (between years) should be higher in the more uncertain barrier island habitats than among the shell/sandbar colonies. Our results do not corroborate the prediction. We postulate that social (and other) factors may explain these differences.

Dynamic modeling, property investigation, and adaptive controller design of serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tesar, Delbert; Tosunoglu, Sabri; Lin, Shyng-Her

1990-01-01

Research results on general serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliances are presented. Two compliant manipulator modeling approaches, distributed and lumped parameter models, are used in this study. System dynamic equations for both compliant models are derived by using the first and second order influence coefficients. Also, the properties of compliant manipulator system dynamics are investigated. One of the properties, which is defined as inaccessibility of vibratory modes, is shown to display a distinct character associated with compliant manipulators. This property indicates the impact of robot geometry on the control of structural oscillations. Example studies are provided to illustrate the physical interpretation of inaccessibility of vibratory modes. Two types of controllers are designed for compliant manipulators modeled by either lumped or distributed parameter techniques. In order to maintain the generality of the results, neither linearization is introduced. Example simulations are given to demonstrate the controller performance. The second type controller is also built for general serial robot arms and is adaptive in nature which can estimate uncertain payload parameters on-line and simultaneously maintain trajectory tracking properties. The relation between manipulator motion tracking capability and convergence of parameter estimation properties is discussed through example case studies. The effect of control input update delays on adaptive controller performance is also studied.

Short-term dynamics of intertidal microphytobenthic biomass. Mathematical modelling [La dynamique a court terme de la biomasse du microphytobenthos intertidal. Formalisation mathematique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guarini, J.-M.; Gros, P.; Blanchard, G.F.; Bacher, C.

1999-01-01

We formulate a deterministic mathematical model to describe the dynamics of the microphytobenthos of intertidal mudflats. It is 'minimal' because it only takes into account the essential processes governing the functioning of the system: the autotrophic production, the active upward and downward migrations of epipelic microalgae, the saturation of the mud surface by a biofilm of diatoms and the global net loss rates of biomass. According to the photic environment of the benthic diatoms inhabiting intertidal mudflats, and to their migration rhythm, the model is composed of two sub-systems of ordinary differential equations; they describe the simultaneous evolution of the biomass 'S' concentrated in the mud surface biofilm - the photic layer - and of the biomass 'F' diluted in the topmost centimetre of the mud - the aphotic layer. Qualitatively, the model solutions agree fairly well with the in situ observed dynamics of the S + F biomass. The study of the mathematical properties of the model, under some simplifying assumptions, shows the convergence of solutions to a stable cyclic equilibrium, whatever the frequencies of the physical synchronizers of the production. The sensitivity analysis reveals the necessity of a better knowledge of the processes of biomass losses, which so far are uncertain, and may further vary in space and time.

Control of Uncertain Systems under Constraints: Switching Horizon Predictive Control of Persistently Disturbed Input-Saturated Plants

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

on at any time from a family of candidate feedback-gains so as to control a discrete- time input-saturated LTI system possibly subject to persistent... times robustness Mosca, E. (2006) Control of Uncertain Systems under Constraints: Switching Horizon Predictive Control of Persistently Disturbed...feedback controls u = f(x̂) (3) so as to ensure, under suitable conditions, stability in the noiseless case as well as finite l∞-induced gain of the

A study of attitude control concepts for precision-pointing non-rigid spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Likins, P. W.

1975-01-01

Attitude control concepts for use onboard structurally nonrigid spacecraft that must be pointed with great precision are examined. The task of determining the eigenproperties of a system of linear time-invariant equations (in terms of hybrid coordinates) representing the attitude motion of a flexible spacecraft is discussed. Literal characteristics are developed for the associated eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system. A method is presented for determining the poles and zeros of the transfer function describing the attitude dynamics of a flexible spacecraft characterized by hybrid coordinate equations. Alterations are made to linear regulator and observer theory to accommodate modeling errors. The results show that a model error vector, which evolves from an error system, can be added to a reduced system model, estimated by an observer, and used by the control law to render the system less sensitive to uncertain magnitudes and phase relations of truncated modes and external disturbance effects. A hybrid coordinate formulation using the provided assumed mode shapes, rather than incorporating the usual finite element approach is provided.

Applying Spatial-Temporal Model and Game Theory to Asymmetric Threat Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Genshe Chen, Denis Garagic, Xiaohuan Tan, Dongxu Li, Dan Shen, Mo Wei, Xu Wang, “Team Dynamics and Tactics for Mission Planning,” Proceedings...Cruz, Jr., Genshe Chen, Dongxu Li, and Denis Garagic, “Target Selection in UAV Cooperative Control Under Uncertain Environment: Genetic Algorithm

Towards the Discovery of Learner Metacognition from Reflective Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson, Andrew; Kitto, Kirsty; Bruza, Peter

2016-01-01

Modern society demands renewed attention on the competencies required to best equip students for a dynamic and uncertain future. We present exploratory work based on the premise that metacognitive and reflective competencies are essential for this task. Bringing the concepts of metacognition and reflection together into a conceptual model within…

Dynamic Evaluation of Regional Air Quality Model's Response to Emission Reductions in the Presence of Uncertain Emission Inventories

EPA Science Inventory

A method is presented and applied for evaluating an air quality model’s changes in pollutant concentrations stemming from changes in emissions while explicitly accounting for the uncertainties in the base emission inventory. Specifically, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMA...

Adaptive Neural Network-Based Event-Triggered Control of Single-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems.

PubMed

Sahoo, Avimanyu; Xu, Hao; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel adaptive neural network (NN) control of single-input and single-output uncertain nonlinear discrete-time systems under event sampled NN inputs. In this control scheme, the feedback signals are transmitted, and the NN weights are tuned in an aperiodic manner at the event sampled instants. After reviewing the NN approximation property with event sampled inputs, an adaptive state estimator (SE), consisting of linearly parameterized NNs, is utilized to approximate the unknown system dynamics in an event sampled context. The SE is viewed as a model and its approximated dynamics and the state vector, during any two events, are utilized for the event-triggered controller design. An adaptive event-trigger condition is derived by using both the estimated NN weights and a dead-zone operator to determine the event sampling instants. This condition both facilitates the NN approximation and reduces the transmission of feedback signals. The ultimate boundedness of both the NN weight estimation error and the system state vector is demonstrated through the Lyapunov approach. As expected, during an initial online learning phase, events are observed more frequently. Over time with the convergence of the NN weights, the inter-event times increase, thereby lowering the number of triggered events. These claims are illustrated through the simulation results.

Accounting for system dynamics in reserve design.

PubMed

Leroux, Shawn J; Schmiegelow, Fiona K A; Cumming, Steve G; Lessard, Robert B; Nagy, John

2007-10-01

Systematic conservation plans have only recently considered the dynamic nature of ecosystems. Methods have been developed to incorporate climate change, population dynamics, and uncertainty in reserve design, but few studies have examined how to account for natural disturbance. Considering natural disturbance in reserve design may be especially important for the world's remaining intact areas, which still experience active natural disturbance regimes. We developed a spatially explicit, dynamic simulation model, CONSERV, which simulates patch dynamics and fire, and used it to evaluate the efficacy of hypothetical reserve networks in northern Canada. We designed six networks based on conventional reserve design methods, with different conservation targets for woodland caribou habitat, high-quality wetlands, vegetation, water bodies, and relative connectedness. We input the six reserve networks into CONSERV and tracked the ability of each to maintain initial conservation targets through time under an active natural disturbance regime. None of the reserve networks maintained all initial targets, and some over-represented certain features, suggesting that both effectiveness and efficiency of reserve design could be improved through use of spatially explicit dynamic simulation during the planning process. Spatial simulation models of landscape dynamics are commonly used in natural resource management, but we provide the first illustration of their potential use for reserve design. Spatial simulation models could be used iteratively to evaluate competing reserve designs and select targets that have a higher likelihood of being maintained through time. Such models could be combined with dynamic planning techniques to develop a general theory for reserve design in an uncertain world.

Fuzzy parametric uncertainty analysis of linear dynamical systems: A surrogate modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, R.; Adhikari, S.

2012-10-01

Uncertainty propagation engineering systems possess significant computational challenges. This paper explores the possibility of using correlated function expansion based metamodelling approach when uncertain system parameters are modeled using Fuzzy variables. In particular, the application of High-Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) is proposed for fuzzy finite element analysis of dynamical systems. The HDMR expansion is a set of quantitative model assessment and analysis tools for capturing high-dimensional input-output system behavior based on a hierarchy of functions of increasing dimensions. The input variables may be either finite-dimensional (i.e., a vector of parameters chosen from the Euclidean space RM) or may be infinite-dimensional as in the function space CM[0,1]. The computational effort to determine the expansion functions using the alpha cut method scales polynomially with the number of variables rather than exponentially. This logic is based on the fundamental assumption underlying the HDMR representation that only low-order correlations among the input variables are likely to have significant impacts upon the outputs for most high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed method is integrated with a commercial Finite Element software. Modal analysis of a simplified aircraft wing with Fuzzy parameters has been used to illustrate the generality of the proposed approach. In the numerical examples, triangular membership functions have been used and the results have been validated against direct Monte Carlo simulations.

Sustained, Low-Intensity Exercise Achieved by a Dynamic Feeding System Decreases Body Fat in Ponies.

PubMed

de Laat, M A; Hampson, B A; Sillence, M N; Pollitt, C C

2016-09-01

Obesity in horses is increasing in prevalence and can be associated with insulin insensitivity and laminitis. Current treatment strategies for obesity include dietary restriction and exercise. However, whether exercise alone is effective for decreasing body fat is uncertain. Our hypothesis was that twice daily use of a dynamic feeding system for 3 months would induce sustained, low-intensity exercise thereby decreasing adiposity and improving insulin sensitivity (SI). Eight, university-owned, mixed-breed, adult ponies with body condition scores (BCS) ≥5/9 were used. Two treatments ("feeder on" or "feeder off") were administered for a 3-month period by a randomized, crossover design (n = 4/treatment). An interim equilibration period of 6 weeks at pasture separated the 2 study phases. Measurements of body mass (body weight, BCS, cresty neck score [CrNS], and morphometry), body fat (determined before and after the "feeder on" treatment only), triglycerides, and insulin sensitivity (SI; combined glucose-insulin test) were undertaken before and after treatments. The dynamic feeding system induced a 3.7-fold increase in the daily distance travelled (n = 6), compared to with a stationary feeder, which significantly decreased mean BCS (6.53 ± 0.94 to 5.38 ± 1.71), CrNS (2.56 ± 1.12 to 1.63 ± 1.06) and body fat (by 4.95%). An improvement in SI did not occur in all ponies. A dynamic feeding system can be used to induce sustained (daily), low-intensity exercise that promotes weight loss in ponies. However, this exercise may not be sufficient to substantially improve SI. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Fear and Trembling: Hong Kong Librarians Face Their Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chepesiuk, Ron

1992-01-01

Discussion of the possible changes in Hong Kong in 1997 when rule passes to the People's Republic of China focuses on the uncertain future of libraries and librarians. Topics discussed include the political climate; the departure of qualified Chinese librarians; and the growth of libraries and computerized systems. (LRW)

Neural-network-based online HJB solution for optimal robust guaranteed cost control of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Liu, Derong; Wang, Ding; Wang, Fei-Yue; Li, Hongliang; Yang, Xiong

2014-12-01

In this paper, the infinite horizon optimal robust guaranteed cost control of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems is investigated using neural-network-based online solution of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. By establishing an appropriate bounded function and defining a modified cost function, the optimal robust guaranteed cost control problem is transformed into an optimal control problem. It can be observed that the optimal cost function of the nominal system is nothing but the optimal guaranteed cost of the original uncertain system. A critic neural network is constructed to facilitate the solution of the modified HJB equation corresponding to the nominal system. More importantly, an additional stabilizing term is introduced for helping to verify the stability, which reinforces the updating process of the weight vector and reduces the requirement of an initial stabilizing control. The uniform ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system is analyzed by using the Lyapunov approach as well. Two simulation examples are provided to verify the effectiveness of the present control approach.

A hypothesis for delayed dynamic earthquake triggering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.

2005-01-01

It's uncertain whether more near-field earthquakes are triggered by static or dynamic stress changes. This ratio matters because static earthquake interactions are increasingly incorporated into probabilistic forecasts. Recent studies were unable to demonstrate all predictions from the static-stress-change hypothesis, particularly seismicity rate reductions. However, current dynamic stress change hypotheses do not explain delayed earthquake triggering and Omori's law. Here I show numerically that if seismic waves can alter some frictional contacts in neighboring fault zones, then dynamic triggering might cause delayed triggering and an Omori-law response. The hypothesis depends on faults following a rate/state friction law, and on seismic waves changing the mean critical slip distance (Dc) at nucleation zones.

Robust stabilization of the Space Station in the presence of inertia matrix uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Liu, Qiang; Sunkel, John

1993-01-01

This paper presents a robust H-infinity full-state feedback control synthesis method for uncertain systems with D11 not equal to 0. The method is applied to the robust stabilization problem of the Space Station in the face of inertia matrix uncertainty. The control design objective is to find a robust controller that yields the largest stable hypercube in uncertain parameter space, while satisfying the nominal performance requirements. The significance of employing an uncertain plant model with D11 not equal 0 is demonstrated.

Minimum time search in uncertain dynamic domains with complex sensorial platforms.

PubMed

Lanillos, Pablo; Besada-Portas, Eva; Lopez-Orozco, Jose Antonio; de la Cruz, Jesus Manuel

2014-08-04

The minimum time search in uncertain domains is a searching task, which appears in real world problems such as natural disasters and sea rescue operations, where a target has to be found, as soon as possible, by a set of sensor-equipped searchers. The automation of this task, where the time to detect the target is critical, can be achieved by new probabilistic techniques that directly minimize the Expected Time (ET) to detect a dynamic target using the observation probability models and actual observations collected by the sensors on board the searchers. The selected technique, described in algorithmic form in this paper for completeness, has only been previously partially tested with an ideal binary detection model, in spite of being designed to deal with complex non-linear/non-differential sensorial models. This paper covers the gap, testing its performance and applicability over different searching tasks with searchers equipped with different complex sensors. The sensorial models under test vary from stepped detection probabilities to continuous/discontinuous differentiable/non-differentiable detection probabilities dependent on distance, orientation, and structured maps. The analysis of the simulated results of several static and dynamic scenarios performed in this paper validates the applicability of the technique with different types of sensor models.

Minimum Time Search in Uncertain Dynamic Domains with Complex Sensorial Platforms

PubMed Central

Lanillos, Pablo; Besada-Portas, Eva; Lopez-Orozco, Jose Antonio; de la Cruz, Jesus Manuel

2014-01-01

The minimum time search in uncertain domains is a searching task, which appears in real world problems such as natural disasters and sea rescue operations, where a target has to be found, as soon as possible, by a set of sensor-equipped searchers. The automation of this task, where the time to detect the target is critical, can be achieved by new probabilistic techniques that directly minimize the Expected Time (ET) to detect a dynamic target using the observation probability models and actual observations collected by the sensors on board the searchers. The selected technique, described in algorithmic form in this paper for completeness, has only been previously partially tested with an ideal binary detection model, in spite of being designed to deal with complex non-linear/non-differential sensorial models. This paper covers the gap, testing its performance and applicability over different searching tasks with searchers equipped with different complex sensors. The sensorial models under test vary from stepped detection probabilities to continuous/discontinuous differentiable/non-differentiable detection probabilities dependent on distance, orientation, and structured maps. The analysis of the simulated results of several static and dynamic scenarios performed in this paper validates the applicability of the technique with different types of sensor models. PMID:25093345

Event-triggered decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant control of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with actuator failures.

PubMed

Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

2018-06-01

This paper investigates the event-triggered decentralized adaptive tracking problem of a class of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with unexpected actuator failures. It is assumed that local control signals are transmitted to local actuators with time-varying faults whenever predefined conditions for triggering events are satisfied. Compared with the existing control-input-based event-triggering strategy for adaptive control of uncertain nonlinear systems, the aim of this paper is to propose a tracking-error-based event-triggering strategy in the decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant tracking framework. The proposed approach can relax drastic changes in control inputs caused by actuator faults in the existing triggering strategy. The stability of the proposed event-triggering control system is analyzed in the Lyapunov sense. Finally, simulation comparisons of the proposed and existing approaches are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical result in the presence of actuator faults. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust control for a biaxial servo with time delay system based on adaptive tuning technique.

PubMed

Chen, Tien-Chi; Yu, Chih-Hsien

2009-07-01

A robust control method for synchronizing a biaxial servo system motion is proposed in this paper. A new network based cross-coupled control and adaptive tuning techniques are used together to cancel out the skew error. The conventional fixed gain PID cross-coupled controller (CCC) is replaced with the adaptive cross-coupled controller (ACCC) in the proposed control scheme to maintain biaxial servo system synchronization motion. Adaptive-tuning PID (APID) position and velocity controllers provide the necessary control actions to maintain synchronization while following a variable command trajectory. A delay-time compensator (DTC) with an adaptive controller was augmented to set the time delay element, effectively moving it outside the closed loop, enhancing the stability of the robust controlled system. This scheme provides strong robustness with respect to uncertain dynamics and disturbances. The simulation and experimental results reveal that the proposed control structure adapts to a wide range of operating conditions and provides promising results under parameter variations and load changes.

Data-based fault-tolerant control of high-speed trains with traction/braking notch nonlinearities and actuator failures.

PubMed

Song, Qi; Song, Yong-Duan

2011-12-01

This paper investigates the position and velocity tracking control problem of high-speed trains with multiple vehicles connected through couplers. A dynamic model reflecting nonlinear and elastic impacts between adjacent vehicles as well as traction/braking nonlinearities and actuation faults is derived. Neuroadaptive fault-tolerant control algorithms are developed to account for various factors such as input nonlinearities, actuator failures, and uncertain impacts of in-train forces in the system simultaneously. The resultant control scheme is essentially independent of system model and is primarily data-driven because with the appropriate input-output data, the proposed control algorithms are capable of automatically generating the intermediate control parameters, neuro-weights, and the compensation signals, literally producing the traction/braking force based upon input and response data only--the whole process does not require precise information on system model or system parameter, nor human intervention. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is also confirmed through numerical simulations.

Chaos Suppression in Fractional order Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator in Wind Turbine Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, Karthikeyan; Karthikeyan, Anitha; Duraisamy, Prakash

2017-06-01

In this paper we investigate the control of three-dimensional non-autonomous fractional-order uncertain model of a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) via a adaptive control technique. We derive a dimensionless fractional order model of the PMSM from the integer order presented in the literatures. Various dynamic properties of the fractional order model like eigen values, Lyapunov exponents, bifurcation and bicoherence are investigated. The system chaotic behavior for various orders of fractional calculus are presented. An adaptive controller is derived to suppress the chaotic oscillations of the fractional order model. As the direct Lyapunov stability analysis of the robust controller is difficult for a fractional order first derivative, we have derived a new lemma to analyze the stability of the system. Numerical simulations of the proposed chaos suppression methodology are given to prove the analytical results derived through which we show that for the derived adaptive controller and the parameter update law, the origin of the system for any bounded initial conditions is asymptotically stable.

Adaptive Fuzzy Bounded Control for Consensus of Multiple Strict-Feedback Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Tong, Shaocheng

2018-02-01

This paper studies the adaptive fuzzy bounded control problem for leader-follower multiagent systems, where each follower is modeled by the uncertain nonlinear strict-feedback system. Combining the fuzzy approximation with the dynamic surface control, an adaptive fuzzy control scheme is developed to guarantee the output consensus of all agents under directed communication topologies. Different from the existing results, the bounds of the control inputs are known as a priori, and they can be determined by the feedback control gains. To realize smooth and fast learning, a predictor is introduced to estimate each error surface, and the corresponding predictor error is employed to learn the optimal fuzzy parameter vector. It is proved that the developed adaptive fuzzy control scheme guarantees the uniformly ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop systems, and the tracking error converges to a small neighborhood of the origin. The simulation results and comparisons are provided to show the validity of the control strategy presented in this paper.

Comprehensive risk assessment method of catastrophic accident based on complex network properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Zhen; Pang, Jun; Shen, Xiaohong

2017-09-01

On the macro level, the structural properties of the network and the electrical characteristics of the micro components determine the risk of cascading failures. And the cascading failures, as a process with dynamic development, not only the direct risk but also potential risk should be considered. In this paper, comprehensively considered the direct risk and potential risk of failures based on uncertain risk analysis theory and connection number theory, quantified uncertain correlation by the node degree and node clustering coefficient, then established a comprehensive risk indicator of failure. The proposed method has been proved by simulation on the actual power grid. Modeling a network according to the actual power grid, and verified the rationality of the proposed method.

Prediction-based control for LTI systems with uncertain time-varying delays and partial state knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Léchappé, V.; Moulay, E.; Plestan, F.

2018-06-01

The stability of a prediction-based controller for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is studied in the presence of time-varying input and output delays. The uncertain delay case is treated as well as the partial state knowledge case. The reduction method is used in order to prove the convergence of the closed-loop system including the state observer, the predictor and the plant. Explicit conditions that guarantee the closed-loop stability are given, thanks to a Lyapunov-Razumikhin analysis. Simulations illustrate the theoretical results.

Robust Satisficing Decision Making for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Complex Missions under Severe Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Ji, Xiaoting; Niu, Yifeng; Shen, Lincheng

2016-01-01

This paper presents a robust satisficing decision-making method for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) executing complex missions in an uncertain environment. Motivated by the info-gap decision theory, we formulate this problem as a novel robust satisficing optimization problem, of which the objective is to maximize the robustness while satisfying some desired mission requirements. Specifically, a new info-gap based Markov Decision Process (IMDP) is constructed to abstract the uncertain UAV system and specify the complex mission requirements with the Linear Temporal Logic (LTL). A robust satisficing policy is obtained to maximize the robustness to the uncertain IMDP while ensuring a desired probability of satisfying the LTL specifications. To this end, we propose a two-stage robust satisficing solution strategy which consists of the construction of a product IMDP and the generation of a robust satisficing policy. In the first stage, a product IMDP is constructed by combining the IMDP with an automaton representing the LTL specifications. In the second, an algorithm based on robust dynamic programming is proposed to generate a robust satisficing policy, while an associated robustness evaluation algorithm is presented to evaluate the robustness. Finally, through Monte Carlo simulation, the effectiveness of our algorithms is demonstrated on an UAV search mission under severe uncertainty so that the resulting policy can maximize the robustness while reaching the desired performance level. Furthermore, by comparing the proposed method with other robust decision-making methods, it can be concluded that our policy can tolerate higher uncertainty so that the desired performance level can be guaranteed, which indicates that the proposed method is much more effective in real applications. PMID:27835670

Robust Satisficing Decision Making for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Complex Missions under Severe Uncertainty.

PubMed

Ji, Xiaoting; Niu, Yifeng; Shen, Lincheng

2016-01-01

This paper presents a robust satisficing decision-making method for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) executing complex missions in an uncertain environment. Motivated by the info-gap decision theory, we formulate this problem as a novel robust satisficing optimization problem, of which the objective is to maximize the robustness while satisfying some desired mission requirements. Specifically, a new info-gap based Markov Decision Process (IMDP) is constructed to abstract the uncertain UAV system and specify the complex mission requirements with the Linear Temporal Logic (LTL). A robust satisficing policy is obtained to maximize the robustness to the uncertain IMDP while ensuring a desired probability of satisfying the LTL specifications. To this end, we propose a two-stage robust satisficing solution strategy which consists of the construction of a product IMDP and the generation of a robust satisficing policy. In the first stage, a product IMDP is constructed by combining the IMDP with an automaton representing the LTL specifications. In the second, an algorithm based on robust dynamic programming is proposed to generate a robust satisficing policy, while an associated robustness evaluation algorithm is presented to evaluate the robustness. Finally, through Monte Carlo simulation, the effectiveness of our algorithms is demonstrated on an UAV search mission under severe uncertainty so that the resulting policy can maximize the robustness while reaching the desired performance level. Furthermore, by comparing the proposed method with other robust decision-making methods, it can be concluded that our policy can tolerate higher uncertainty so that the desired performance level can be guaranteed, which indicates that the proposed method is much more effective in real applications.

Metropolitan open-space protection with uncertain site availability

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; Stephanie A. Snyder; Charles S. Revelle

2005-01-01

Urban planners acquire open space to protect natural areas and provide public access to recreation opportunities. Because of limited budgets and dynamic land markets, acquisitions take place sequentially depending on available funds and sites. To address these planning features, we formulated a two-period site selection model with two objectives: maximize the...

Lean vs Agile in the Context of Complexity Management in Organizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Putnik, Goran D.; Putnik, Zlata

2012-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to provide a deeper insight into the relationship of the issue "lean vs agile" in order to inform managers towards more coherent decisions especially in a dynamic, unpredictable, uncertain, non-linear environment. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology is an exploratory study based on secondary data…

Hold It! The Influence of Lingering Rewards on Choice Diversification and Persistence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulze, Christin; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Newell, Ben R.

2017-01-01

Learning to choose adaptively when faced with uncertain and variable outcomes is a central challenge for decision makers. This study examines repeated choice in dynamic probability learning tasks in which outcome probabilities changed either as a function of the choices participants made or independently of those choices. This presence/absence of…

Kinematically Optimal Robust Control of Redundant Manipulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galicki, M.

2017-12-01

This work deals with the problem of the robust optimal task space trajectory tracking subject to finite-time convergence. Kinematic and dynamic equations of a redundant manipulator are assumed to be uncertain. Moreover, globally unbounded disturbances are allowed to act on the manipulator when tracking the trajectory by the endeffector. Furthermore, the movement is to be accomplished in such a way as to minimize both the manipulator torques and their oscillations thus eliminating the potential robot vibrations. Based on suitably defined task space non-singular terminal sliding vector variable and the Lyapunov stability theory, we derive a class of chattering-free robust kinematically optimal controllers, based on the estimation of transpose Jacobian, which seem to be effective in counteracting both uncertain kinematics and dynamics, unbounded disturbances and (possible) kinematic and/or algorithmic singularities met on the robot trajectory. The numerical simulations carried out for a redundant manipulator of a SCARA type consisting of the three revolute kinematic pairs and operating in a two-dimensional task space, illustrate performance of the proposed controllers as well as comparisons with other well known control schemes.

Robust Task Space Trajectory Tracking Control of Robotic Manipulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galicki, M.

2016-08-01

This work deals with the problem of the accurate task space trajectory tracking subject to finite-time convergence. Kinematic and dynamic equations of a redundant manipulator are assumed to be uncertain. Moreover, globally unbounded disturbances are allowed to act on the manipulator when tracking the trajectory by the end-effector. Furthermore, the movement is to be accomplished in such a way as to reduce both the manipulator torques and their oscillations thus eliminating the potential robot vibrations. Based on suitably defined task space non-singular terminal sliding vector variable and the Lyapunov stability theory, we propose a class of chattering-free robust controllers, based on the estimation of transpose Jacobian, which seem to be effective in counteracting both uncertain kinematics and dynamics, unbounded disturbances and (possible) kinematic and/or algorithmic singularities met on the robot trajectory. The numerical simulations carried out for a redundant manipulator of a SCARA type consisting of the three revolute kinematic pairs and operating in a two-dimensional task space, illustrate performance of the proposed controllers as well as comparisons with other well known control schemes.

Sustainability of socio-hydro system with changing value and preference to an uncertain future climate and economic conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuththu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2016-04-01

Water-human systems are coupled and display co-evolutionary dynamics influenced by society's values and preference. This has been observed in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia where water usage initially focused on agriculture production and until mid-1990's favoured agriculture. This turned around as society became more concerned about the degradation of ecosystems and ultimately water was reallocated back towards the environment. This new water management adversely impacted the agriculture sector and created economic stress in the basin. The basin communities were able to transform and cope with water allocation favouring the environment through sectoral transformation facilitated by movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding. This was helped by the adaptive capacity of people through reemployment in other economic sectors of the basin economy, unemployment for a period of time and migration out of the basin, and crop diversification. This study looks to the future and focuses on how water managers could be informed and prepare for un-foreseen issues coming out of societies changing values and preferences and emerging as different systems in the basin interact with each other at different times and speed. The issues of this type that concern the Murray Darling Basin Authority include a renewed focus and priority on food production due to food scarcity; increased impact and frequency of natural disasters (eg. climate change); regional economic diversification due to the growth of peri-urban development in the basin; institutional capacity for water reform due to new political paradigms (eg. new water sharing plans); and improvement in science and technology (eg. farm practices, water efficiency, water reuse). To undertake this, the study uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system that model the major drivers of changing economic conditions, society values and preference, climatic condition and science and technology. The dynamical system is represented by a suite of differential equations that can evolve with time. The mathematical property (Eigen values and vectors) of complex dynamical system is used to understand the system dynamics and look for signs of system collapse. Bifurcation analysis of the dynamical system defines the limits of different model parameters (safe zone) where system collapse is avoided and to maintain a sustainable society. The safe zone is interpreted in a manner that allows water managers to understand the possible ways of influencing the water-human system and understanding the consequences. Keywords: socio-hydrology, value and preference, dynamical system modelling, water management.

Stochastic model of the NASA/MSFC ground facility for large space structures with uncertain parameters: The maximum entropy approach, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsia, Wei Shen

1989-01-01

A validated technology data base is being developed in the areas of control/structures interaction, deployment dynamics, and system performance for Large Space Structures (LSS). A Ground Facility (GF), in which the dynamics and control systems being considered for LSS applications can be verified, was designed and built. One of the important aspects of the GF is to verify the analytical model for the control system design. The procedure is to describe the control system mathematically as well as possible, then to perform tests on the control system, and finally to factor those results into the mathematical model. The reduction of the order of a higher order control plant was addressed. The computer program was improved for the maximum entropy principle adopted in Hyland's MEOP method. The program was tested against the testing problem. It resulted in a very close match. Two methods of model reduction were examined: Wilson's model reduction method and Hyland's optimal projection (OP) method. Design of a computer program for Hyland's OP method was attempted. Due to the difficulty encountered at the stage where a special matrix factorization technique is needed in order to obtain the required projection matrix, the program was successful up to the finding of the Linear Quadratic Gaussian solution but not beyond. Numerical results along with computer programs which employed ORACLS are presented.

Possible solution to the riddle of HD 82943 multiplanet system: the three-planet resonance 1:2:5?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baluev, Roman V.; Beaugé, Cristian

2014-03-01

We carry out a new analysis of the published radial velocity data for the planet-hosting star HD 82943. We include the recent Keck/HIRES measurements as well as the aged but much more numerous CORALIE data. We find that the CORALIE radial velocity measurements are polluted by a systematic annual variation which affected the robustness of many previous results. We show that after purging this variation, the residuals still contain a clear signature of an additional ˜1100 d periodicity. The latter variation leaves significant hints in all three independent radial velocity subsets that we analysed: the CORALIE data, the Keck data acquired prior to a hardware upgrade and the Keck data taken after the upgrade. We mainly treat this variation as a signature of a third planet in the system, although we cannot rule out other interpretations, such as long-term stellar activity. We find it easy to naturally obtain a stable three-planet radial velocity fit close to the three-planet mean-motion resonance 1:2:5, with the two main planets (those in the 1:2 resonance) in an aligned apsidal corotation. The dynamical status of the third planet is still uncertain: it may reside in as well as slightly out of the 5:2 resonance. We obtain the value of about 1075 d for its orbital period and ˜0.3MJup for its minimum mass, while the eccentric parameters are uncertain.

Accounting for indirect land-use change in the life cycle assessment of biofuel supply chains

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Susan Tarka; Woods, Jeremy; Akhurst, Mark; Brander, Matthew; O'Hare, Michael; Dawson, Terence P.; Edwards, Robert; Liska, Adam J.; Malpas, Rick

2012-01-01

The expansion of land used for crop production causes variable direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and other economic, social and environmental effects. We analyse the use of life cycle analysis (LCA) for estimating the carbon intensity of biofuel production from indirect land-use change (ILUC). Two approaches are critiqued: direct, attributional life cycle analysis and consequential life cycle analysis (CLCA). A proposed hybrid ‘combined model’ of the two approaches for ILUC analysis relies on first defining the system boundary of the resulting full LCA. Choices are then made as to the modelling methodology (economic equilibrium or cause–effect), data inputs, land area analysis, carbon stock accounting and uncertainty analysis to be included. We conclude that CLCA is applicable for estimating the historic emissions from ILUC, although improvements to the hybrid approach proposed, coupled with regular updating, are required, and uncertainly values must be adequately represented; however, the scope and the depth of the expansion of the system boundaries required for CLCA remain controversial. In addition, robust prediction, monitoring and accounting frameworks for the dynamic and highly uncertain nature of future crop yields and the effectiveness of policies to reduce deforestation and encourage afforestation remain elusive. Finally, establishing compatible and comparable accounting frameworks for ILUC between the USA, the European Union, South East Asia, Africa, Brazil and other major biofuel trading blocs is urgently needed if substantial distortions between these markets, which would reduce its application in policy outcomes, are to be avoided. PMID:22467143

Accounting for indirect land-use change in the life cycle assessment of biofuel supply chains.

PubMed

Sanchez, Susan Tarka; Woods, Jeremy; Akhurst, Mark; Brander, Matthew; O'Hare, Michael; Dawson, Terence P; Edwards, Robert; Liska, Adam J; Malpas, Rick

2012-06-07

The expansion of land used for crop production causes variable direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and other economic, social and environmental effects. We analyse the use of life cycle analysis (LCA) for estimating the carbon intensity of biofuel production from indirect land-use change (ILUC). Two approaches are critiqued: direct, attributional life cycle analysis and consequential life cycle analysis (CLCA). A proposed hybrid 'combined model' of the two approaches for ILUC analysis relies on first defining the system boundary of the resulting full LCA. Choices are then made as to the modelling methodology (economic equilibrium or cause-effect), data inputs, land area analysis, carbon stock accounting and uncertainty analysis to be included. We conclude that CLCA is applicable for estimating the historic emissions from ILUC, although improvements to the hybrid approach proposed, coupled with regular updating, are required, and uncertainly values must be adequately represented; however, the scope and the depth of the expansion of the system boundaries required for CLCA remain controversial. In addition, robust prediction, monitoring and accounting frameworks for the dynamic and highly uncertain nature of future crop yields and the effectiveness of policies to reduce deforestation and encourage afforestation remain elusive. Finally, establishing compatible and comparable accounting frameworks for ILUC between the USA, the European Union, South East Asia, Africa, Brazil and other major biofuel trading blocs is urgently needed if substantial distortions between these markets, which would reduce its application in policy outcomes, are to be avoided.

Robust Flutter Analysis for Aeroservoelastic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotikalpudi, Aditya

The dynamics of a flexible air vehicle are typically described using an aeroservoelastic model which accounts for interaction between aerodynamics, structural dynamics, rigid body dynamics and control laws. These subsystems can be individually modeled using a theoretical approach and experimental data from various ground tests can be combined into them. For instance, a combination of linear finite element modeling and data from ground vibration tests may be used to obtain a validated structural model. Similarly, an aerodynamic model can be obtained using computational fluid dynamics or simple panel methods and partially updated using limited data from wind tunnel tests. In all cases, the models obtained for these subsystems have a degree of uncertainty owing to inherent assumptions in the theory and errors in experimental data. Suitable uncertain models that account for these uncertainties can be built to study the impact of these modeling errors on the ability to predict dynamic instabilities known as flutter. This thesis addresses the methods used for modeling rigid body dynamics, structural dynamics and unsteady aerodynamics of a blended wing design called the Body Freedom Flutter vehicle. It discusses the procedure used to incorporate data from a wide range of ground based experiments in the form of model uncertainties within these subsystems. Finally, it provides the mathematical tools for carrying out flutter analysis and sensitivity analysis which account for these model uncertainties. These analyses are carried out for both open loop and controller in the loop (closed loop) cases.

Hypersonic Vehicle Trajectory Optimization and Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, S. N.; Shen, J.; Grohs, J. R.

1997-01-01

Two classes of neural networks have been developed for the study of hypersonic vehicle trajectory optimization and control. The first one is called an 'adaptive critic'. The uniqueness and main features of this approach are that: (1) they need no external training; (2) they allow variability of initial conditions; and (3) they can serve as feedback control. This is used to solve a 'free final time' two-point boundary value problem that maximizes the mass at the rocket burn-out while satisfying the pre-specified burn-out conditions in velocity, flightpath angle, and altitude. The second neural network is a recurrent network. An interesting feature of this network formulation is that when its inputs are the coefficients of the dynamics and control matrices, the network outputs are the Kalman sequences (with a quadratic cost function); the same network is also used for identifying the coefficients of the dynamics and control matrices. Consequently, we can use it to control a system whose parameters are uncertain. Numerical results are presented which illustrate the potential of these methods.

Optimal dynamic voltage scaling for wireless sensor nodes with real-time constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassandras, Christos G.; Zhuang, Shixin

2005-11-01

Sensors are increasingly embedded in manufacturing systems and wirelessly networked to monitor and manage operations ranging from process and inventory control to tracking equipment and even post-manufacturing product monitoring. In building such sensor networks, a critical issue is the limited and hard to replenish energy in the devices involved. Dynamic voltage scaling is a technique that controls the operating voltage of a processor to provide desired performance while conserving energy and prolonging the overall network's lifetime. We consider such power-limited devices processing time-critical tasks which are non-preemptive, aperiodic and have uncertain arrival times. We treat voltage scaling as a dynamic optimization problem whose objective is to minimize energy consumption subject to hard or soft real-time execution constraints. In the case of hard constraints, we build on prior work (which engages a voltage scaling controller at task completion times) by developing an intra-task controller that acts at all arrival times of incoming tasks. We show that this optimization problem can be decomposed into two simpler ones whose solution leads to an algorithm that does not actually require solving any nonlinear programming problems. In the case of soft constraints, this decomposition must be partly relaxed, but it still leads to a scalable (linear in the number of tasks) algorithm. Simulation results are provided to illustrate performance improvements in systems with intra-task controllers compared to uncontrolled systems or those using inter-task control.

Measurement Marker Recognition In A Time Sequence Of Infrared Images For Biomedical Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorini, A. R.; Fumero, R.; Marchesi, R.

1986-03-01

In thermographic measurements, quantitative surface temperature evaluation is often uncertain. The main reason is in the lack of available reference points in transient conditions. Reflective markers were used for automatic marker recognition and pixel coordinate computations. An algorithm selects marker icons to match marker references where particular luminance conditions are satisfied. Automatic marker recognition allows luminance compensation and temperature calibration of recorded infrared images. A biomedical application is presented: the dynamic behaviour of the surface temperature distributions is investigated in order to study the performance of two different pumping systems for extracorporeal circulation. Sequences of images are compared and results are discussed. Finally, the algorithm allows to monitor the experimental environment and to alert for the presence of unusual experimental conditions.

A new delay-independent condition for global robust stability of neural networks with time delays.

PubMed

Samli, Ruya

2015-06-01

This paper studies the problem of robust stability of dynamical neural networks with discrete time delays under the assumptions that the network parameters of the neural system are uncertain and norm-bounded, and the activation functions are slope-bounded. By employing the results of Lyapunov stability theory and matrix theory, new sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for delayed neural networks are presented. The results reported in this paper can be easily tested by checking some special properties of symmetric matrices associated with the parameter uncertainties of neural networks. We also present a numerical example to show the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerial robot intelligent control method based on back-stepping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jian; Xue, Qian

2018-05-01

The aerial robot is characterized as strong nonlinearity, high coupling and parameter uncertainty, a self-adaptive back-stepping control method based on neural network is proposed in this paper. The uncertain part of the aerial robot model is compensated online by the neural network of Cerebellum Model Articulation Controller and robust control items are designed to overcome the uncertainty error of the system during online learning. At the same time, particle swarm algorithm is used to optimize and fix parameters so as to improve the dynamic performance, and control law is obtained by the recursion of back-stepping regression. Simulation results show that the designed control law has desired attitude tracking performance and good robustness in case of uncertainties and large errors in the model parameters.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

PubMed Central

Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

2009-01-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

PubMed

Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

2009-12-08

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

Stochastic Ocean Predictions with Dynamically-Orthogonal Primitive Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramani, D. N.; Haley, P., Jr.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.

2017-12-01

The coastal ocean is a prime example of multiscale nonlinear fluid dynamics. Ocean fields in such regions are complex and intermittent with unstationary heterogeneous statistics. Due to the limited measurements, there are multiple sources of uncertainties, including the initial conditions, boundary conditions, forcing, parameters, and even the model parameterizations and equations themselves. For efficient and rigorous quantification and prediction of these uncertainities, the stochastic Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) PDEs for a primitive equation ocean modeling system with a nonlinear free-surface are derived and numerical schemes for their space-time integration are obtained. Detailed numerical studies with idealized-to-realistic regional ocean dynamics are completed. These include consistency checks for the numerical schemes and comparisons with ensemble realizations. As an illustrative example, we simulate the 4-d multiscale uncertainty in the Middle Atlantic/New York Bight region during the months of Jan to Mar 2017. To provide intitial conditions for the uncertainty subspace, uncertainties in the region were objectively analyzed using historical data. The DO primitive equations were subsequently integrated in space and time. The probability distribution function (pdf) of the ocean fields is compared to in-situ, remote sensing, and opportunity data collected during the coincident POSYDON experiment. Results show that our probabilistic predictions had skill and are 3- to 4- orders of magnitude faster than classic ensemble schemes.

Dynamic thermal characteristics of heat pipe via segmented thermal resistance model for electric vehicle battery cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Feifei; Lan, Fengchong; Chen, Jiqing

2016-07-01

Heat pipe cooling for battery thermal management systems (BTMSs) in electric vehicles (EVs) is growing due to its advantages of high cooling efficiency, compact structure and flexible geometry. Considering the transient conduction, phase change and uncertain thermal conditions in a heat pipe, it is challenging to obtain the dynamic thermal characteristics accurately in such complex heat and mass transfer process. In this paper, a ;segmented; thermal resistance model of a heat pipe is proposed based on thermal circuit method. The equivalent conductivities of different segments, viz. the evaporator and condenser of pipe, are used to determine their own thermal parameters and conditions integrated into the thermal model of battery for a complete three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. The proposed ;segmented; model shows more precise than the ;non-segmented; model by the comparison of simulated and experimental temperature distribution and variation of an ultra-thin micro heat pipe (UMHP) battery pack, and has less calculation error to obtain dynamic thermal behavior for exact thermal design, management and control of heat pipe BTMSs. Using the ;segmented; model, the cooling effect of the UMHP pack with different natural/forced convection and arrangements is predicted, and the results correspond well to the tests.

Finite time convergent learning law for continuous neural networks.

PubMed

Chairez, Isaac

2014-02-01

This paper addresses the design of a discontinuous finite time convergent learning law for neural networks with continuous dynamics. The neural network was used here to obtain a non-parametric model for uncertain systems described by a set of ordinary differential equations. The source of uncertainties was the presence of some external perturbations and poor knowledge of the nonlinear function describing the system dynamics. A new adaptive algorithm based on discontinuous algorithms was used to adjust the weights of the neural network. The adaptive algorithm was derived by means of a non-standard Lyapunov function that is lower semi-continuous and differentiable in almost the whole space. A compensator term was included in the identifier to reject some specific perturbations using a nonlinear robust algorithm. Two numerical examples demonstrated the improvements achieved by the learning algorithm introduced in this paper compared to classical schemes with continuous learning methods. The first one dealt with a benchmark problem used in the paper to explain how the discontinuous learning law works. The second one used the methane production model to show the benefits in engineering applications of the learning law proposed in this paper. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed Adaptive Finite-Time Approach for Formation-Containment Control of Networked Nonlinear Systems Under Directed Topology.

PubMed

Wang, Yujuan; Song, Yongduan; Ren, Wei

2017-07-06

This paper presents a distributed adaptive finite-time control solution to the formation-containment problem for multiple networked systems with uncertain nonlinear dynamics and directed communication constraints. By integrating the special topology feature of the new constructed symmetrical matrix, the technical difficulty in finite-time formation-containment control arising from the asymmetrical Laplacian matrix under single-way directed communication is circumvented. Based upon fractional power feedback of the local error, an adaptive distributed control scheme is established to drive the leaders into the prespecified formation configuration in finite time. Meanwhile, a distributed adaptive control scheme, independent of the unavailable inputs of the leaders, is designed to keep the followers within a bounded distance from the moving leaders and then to make the followers enter the convex hull shaped by the formation of the leaders in finite time. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is confirmed by the simulation.

Neural-Based Compensation of Nonlinearities in an Airplane Longitudinal Model with Dynamic-Inversion Control

PubMed Central

Li, YuHui; Jin, FeiTeng

2017-01-01

The inversion design approach is a very useful tool for the complex multiple-input-multiple-output nonlinear systems to implement the decoupling control goal, such as the airplane model and spacecraft model. In this work, the flight control law is proposed using the neural-based inversion design method associated with the nonlinear compensation for a general longitudinal model of the airplane. First, the nonlinear mathematic model is converted to the equivalent linear model based on the feedback linearization theory. Then, the flight control law integrated with this inversion model is developed to stabilize the nonlinear system and relieve the coupling effect. Afterwards, the inversion control combined with the neural network and nonlinear portion is presented to improve the transient performance and attenuate the uncertain effects on both external disturbances and model errors. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of this controller. PMID:29410680

Design and experiment of data-driven modeling and flutter control of a prototype wing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lum, Kai-Yew; Xu, Cai-Lin; Lu, Zhenbo; Lai, Kwok-Leung; Cui, Yongdong

2017-06-01

This paper presents an approach for data-driven modeling of aeroelasticity and its application to flutter control design of a wind-tunnel wing model. Modeling is centered on system identification of unsteady aerodynamic loads using computational fluid dynamics data, and adopts a nonlinear multivariable extension of the Hammerstein-Wiener system. The formulation is in modal coordinates of the elastic structure, and yields a reduced-order model of the aeroelastic feedback loop that is parametrized by airspeed. Flutter suppression is thus cast as a robust stabilization problem over uncertain airspeed, for which a low-order H∞ controller is computed. The paper discusses in detail parameter sensitivity and observability of the model, the former to justify the chosen model structure, and the latter to provide a criterion for physical sensor placement. Wind tunnel experiments confirm the validity of the modeling approach and the effectiveness of the control design.

Wind turbine model and loop shaping controller design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilev, Bogdan

2017-12-01

A model of a wind turbine is evaluated, consisting of: wind speed model, mechanical and electrical model of generator and tower oscillation model. Model of the whole system is linearized around of a nominal point. By using the linear model with uncertainties is synthesized a uncertain model. By using the uncertain model is developed a H∞ controller, which provide mode of stabilizing the rotor frequency and damping the tower oscillations. Finally is simulated work of nonlinear system and H∞ controller.

Design Flexibility for Uncertain Distributed Generation from Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Wu, Hongyu

2016-12-12

Uncertainty in the future adoption patterns for distributed energy resources (DERs) introduces a challenge for electric distribution system planning. This paper explores the potential for flexibility in design - also known as real options - to identify design solutions that may never emerge when future DER patterns are treated as deterministic. A test case for storage system design with uncertain distributed generation for solar photovoltaics (DGPV) demonstrates this approach and is used to study sensitivities to a range of techno-economic assumptions.

On Event-Triggered Adaptive Architectures for Decentralized and Distributed Control of Large-Scale Modular Systems

PubMed Central

Albattat, Ali; Gruenwald, Benjamin C.; Yucelen, Tansel

2016-01-01

The last decade has witnessed an increased interest in physical systems controlled over wireless networks (networked control systems). These systems allow the computation of control signals via processors that are not attached to the physical systems, and the feedback loops are closed over wireless networks. The contribution of this paper is to design and analyze event-triggered decentralized and distributed adaptive control architectures for uncertain networked large-scale modular systems; that is, systems consist of physically-interconnected modules controlled over wireless networks. Specifically, the proposed adaptive architectures guarantee overall system stability while reducing wireless network utilization and achieving a given system performance in the presence of system uncertainties that can result from modeling and degraded modes of operation of the modules and their interconnections between each other. In addition to the theoretical findings including rigorous system stability and the boundedness analysis of the closed-loop dynamical system, as well as the characterization of the effect of user-defined event-triggering thresholds and the design parameters of the proposed adaptive architectures on the overall system performance, an illustrative numerical example is further provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed decentralized and distributed control approaches. PMID:27537894

On Event-Triggered Adaptive Architectures for Decentralized and Distributed Control of Large-Scale Modular Systems.

PubMed

Albattat, Ali; Gruenwald, Benjamin C; Yucelen, Tansel

2016-08-16

The last decade has witnessed an increased interest in physical systems controlled over wireless networks (networked control systems). These systems allow the computation of control signals via processors that are not attached to the physical systems, and the feedback loops are closed over wireless networks. The contribution of this paper is to design and analyze event-triggered decentralized and distributed adaptive control architectures for uncertain networked large-scale modular systems; that is, systems consist of physically-interconnected modules controlled over wireless networks. Specifically, the proposed adaptive architectures guarantee overall system stability while reducing wireless network utilization and achieving a given system performance in the presence of system uncertainties that can result from modeling and degraded modes of operation of the modules and their interconnections between each other. In addition to the theoretical findings including rigorous system stability and the boundedness analysis of the closed-loop dynamical system, as well as the characterization of the effect of user-defined event-triggering thresholds and the design parameters of the proposed adaptive architectures on the overall system performance, an illustrative numerical example is further provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed decentralized and distributed control approaches.

Stronger steerability criterion for more uncertain continuous-variable systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Priyanka; Pramanik, Tanumoy; Majumdar, A. S.

2015-10-01

We derive a fine-grained uncertainty relation for the measurement of two incompatible observables on a single quantum system of continuous variables, and show that continuous-variable systems are more uncertain than discrete-variable systems. Using the derived fine-grained uncertainty relation, we formulate a stronger steering criterion that is able to reveal the steerability of NOON states that has hitherto not been possible using other criteria. We further obtain a monogamy relation for our steering inequality which leads to an, in principle, improved lower bound on the secret key rate of a one-sided device independent quantum key distribution protocol for continuous variables.

Robust adaptive sliding mode control for uncertain systems with unknown time-varying delay input.

PubMed

Benamor, Anouar; Messaoud, Hassani

2018-05-02

This article focuses on robust adaptive sliding mode control law for uncertain discrete systems with unknown time-varying delay input, where the uncertainty is assumed unknown. The main results of this paper are divided into three phases. In the first phase, we propose a new sliding surface is derived within the Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). In the second phase, using the new sliding surface, the novel Robust Sliding Mode Control (RSMC) is proposed where the upper bound of uncertainty is supposed known. Finally, the novel approach of Robust Adaptive Sliding ModeControl (RASMC) has been defined for this type of systems, where the upper limit of uncertainty which is assumed unknown. In this new approach, we have estimate the upper limit of uncertainties and we have determined the control law based on a sliding surface that will converge to zero. This novel control laws are been validated in simulation on an uncertain numerical system with good results and comparative study. This efficiency is emphasized through the application of the new controls on the two physical systems which are the process trainer PT326 and hydraulic system two tanks. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Data-driven diagnostics of terrestrial carbon dynamics over North America

Treesearch

Jingfeng Xiao; Scott V. Ollinger; Steve Frolking; George C. Hurtt; David Y. Hollinger; Kenneth J. Davis; Yude Pan; Xiaoyang Zhang; Feng Deng; Jiquan Chen; Dennis D. Baldocchi; Bevery E. Law; M. Altaf Arain; Ankur R. Desai; Andrew D. Richardson; Ge Sun; Brian Amiro; Hank Margolis; Lianhong Gu; Russell L. Scott; Peter D. Blanken; Andrew E. Suyker

2014-01-01

The exchange of carbon dioxide is a key measure of ecosystem metabolism and a critical intersection between the terrestrial biosphere and the Earth's climate. Despite the general agreement that the terrestrial ecosystems in North America provide a sizeable carbon sink, the size and distribution of the sink remain uncertain. We use a data-driven approach to upscale...

The infinum principle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geering, H. P.; Athans, M.

1973-01-01

A complete theory of necessary and sufficient conditions is discussed for a control to be superior with respect to a nonscalar-valued performance criterion. The latter maps into a finite dimensional, integrally closed directed, partially ordered linear space. The applicability of the theory to the analysis of dynamic vector estimation problems and to a class of uncertain optimal control problems is demonstrated.

Observed and projected C change in the Southeastern US

Treesearch

John Coulston; David Wear; Jim Vose

2015-01-01

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain due to the effects of land use changes, management, disturbance, and climate change. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. Using a completely...

Combining surface reanalysis and remote sensing data for monitoring evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marshall, M.; Tu, K.; Funk, C.; Michaelsen, J.; Williams, Pat; Williams, C.; Ardö, J.; Marie, B.; Cappelaere, B.; Grandcourt, A.; Nickless, A.; Noubellon, Y.; Scholes, R.; Kutsch, W.

2012-01-01

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled actual evapotranspiration (AET), a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a model driven by dynamic canopy AET was combined with the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the NOAH Land Surface Model (GNOAH) wet canopy and soil AET for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against AET from the GNOAH model and dynamic model using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance are at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites is poor, but better than individual models. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a dynamic vegetation component with land surface model estimates, improved model parameterization, and reduction of multiplicative effects of uncertain data.

Quantification of the microphytobenthic primary production in european intertidal mudflats - A modelling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guarini, J.-M.; Blanchard, G.F.; Gros, P.

2000-01-01

A deterministic model quantifying the dynamics of the microphytobenthic biomass in the first centimeter of the mud was formulated as part of the MAST-III/INTRMUD project. The main modelled processes are production by photosynthesis, active vertical migration of the microphytobenthos and global biomass losses, encompassing grazing, mortality and resuspension during immersion periods. The model emphasizes the role of the interface between mud and air, which is crucial for the production. The microalgal biofilm present at the mud surface during day-time emersion periods induces most of the differences between microphytobenthos and phytoplankton communities dynamics. The study of the mathematical properties of the system, under some simplifying assumptions, shows the convergence of the solutions to a stable cyclic equilibrium, in the whole observed range of the frequencies of the physical synchronizers of the production. Resilience time estimates suggest that microphytobenthic biomass attains an equilibrium rapidly, even after a strong perturbation. Around the equilibrium, the local model solutions agree fairly with the in situ observed dynamics of the total biomass. The sensitivity analysis suggests investigating the processes governing biomass losses, which are so far uncertain, and may further vary in space and time. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd.

The Impact of Rainfall on Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Foggy Desert.

PubMed

Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K

2016-01-01

Soil moisture is a key variable in dryland ecosystems since it determines the occurrence and duration of vegetation water stress and affects the development of weather patterns including rainfall. However, the lack of ground observations of soil moisture and rainfall dynamics in many drylands has long been a major obstacle in understanding ecohydrological processes in these ecosystems. It is also uncertain to what extent rainfall controls soil moisture dynamics in fog dominated dryland systems. To this end, in this study, twelve to nineteen months' continuous daily records of rainfall and soil moisture (from January 2014 to August 2015) obtained from three sites (one sand dune site and two gravel plain sites) in the Namib Desert are reported. A process-based model simulating the stochastic soil moisture dynamics in water-limited systems was used to study the relationships between soil moisture and rainfall dynamics. Model sensitivity in response to different soil and vegetation parameters under diverse soil textures was also investigated. Our field observations showed that surface soil moisture dynamics generally follow rainfall patterns at the two gravel plain sites, whereas soil moisture dynamics in the sand dune site did not show a significant relationship with rainfall pattern. The modeling results suggested that most of the soil moisture dynamics can be simulated except the daily fluctuations, which may require a modification of the model structure to include non-rainfall components. Sensitivity analyses suggested that soil hygroscopic point (sh) and field capacity (sfc) were two main parameters controlling soil moisture output, though permanent wilting point (sw) was also very sensitive under the parameter setting of sand dune (Gobabeb) and gravel plain (Kleinberg). Overall, the modeling results were not sensitive to the parameters in non-bounded group (e.g., soil hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil porosity (n)). Field observations, stochastic modeling results as well as sensitivity analyses provide soil moisture baseline information for future monitoring and the prediction of soil moisture patterns in the Namib Desert.

The Impact of Rainfall on Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Foggy Desert

PubMed Central

Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F.; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K.

2016-01-01

Soil moisture is a key variable in dryland ecosystems since it determines the occurrence and duration of vegetation water stress and affects the development of weather patterns including rainfall. However, the lack of ground observations of soil moisture and rainfall dynamics in many drylands has long been a major obstacle in understanding ecohydrological processes in these ecosystems. It is also uncertain to what extent rainfall controls soil moisture dynamics in fog dominated dryland systems. To this end, in this study, twelve to nineteen months’ continuous daily records of rainfall and soil moisture (from January 2014 to August 2015) obtained from three sites (one sand dune site and two gravel plain sites) in the Namib Desert are reported. A process-based model simulating the stochastic soil moisture dynamics in water-limited systems was used to study the relationships between soil moisture and rainfall dynamics. Model sensitivity in response to different soil and vegetation parameters under diverse soil textures was also investigated. Our field observations showed that surface soil moisture dynamics generally follow rainfall patterns at the two gravel plain sites, whereas soil moisture dynamics in the sand dune site did not show a significant relationship with rainfall pattern. The modeling results suggested that most of the soil moisture dynamics can be simulated except the daily fluctuations, which may require a modification of the model structure to include non-rainfall components. Sensitivity analyses suggested that soil hygroscopic point (sh) and field capacity (sfc) were two main parameters controlling soil moisture output, though permanent wilting point (sw) was also very sensitive under the parameter setting of sand dune (Gobabeb) and gravel plain (Kleinberg). Overall, the modeling results were not sensitive to the parameters in non-bounded group (e.g., soil hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil porosity (n)). Field observations, stochastic modeling results as well as sensitivity analyses provide soil moisture baseline information for future monitoring and the prediction of soil moisture patterns in the Namib Desert. PMID:27764203

Learning to integrate reactivity and deliberation in uncertain planning and scheduling problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve A.; Gervasio, Melinda T.; Dejong, Gerald F.

1992-01-01

This paper describes an approach to planning and scheduling in uncertain domains. In this approach, a system divides a task on a goal by goal basis into reactive and deliberative components. Initially, a task is handled entirely reactively. When failures occur, the system changes the reactive/deliverative goal division by moving goals into the deliberative component. Because our approach attempts to minimize the number of deliberative goals, we call our approach Minimal Deliberation (MD). Because MD allows goals to be treated reactively, it gains some of the advantages of reactive systems: computational efficiency, the ability to deal with noise and non-deterministic effects, and the ability to take advantage of unforseen opportunities. However, because MD can fall back upon deliberation, it can also provide some of the guarantees of classical planning, such as the ability to deal with complex goal interactions. This paper describes the Minimal Deliberation approach to integrating reactivity and deliberation and describe an ongoing application of the approach to an uncertain planning and scheduling domain.

An efficient heuristic method for dynamic portfolio selection problem under transaction costs and uncertain conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Amir Abbas; Pourahmadi, Zahra

2016-04-01

Selecting the optimal combination of assets in a portfolio is one of the most important decisions in investment management. As investment is a long term concept, looking into a portfolio optimization problem just in a single period may cause loss of some opportunities that could be exploited in a long term view. Hence, it is tried to extend the problem from single to multi-period model. We include trading costs and uncertain conditions to this model which made it more realistic and complex. Hence, we propose an efficient heuristic method to tackle this problem. The efficiency of the method is examined and compared with the results of the rolling single-period optimization and the buy and hold method which shows the superiority of the proposed method.

Sensitivity of simulated englacial isochrones to uncertain subglacial boundary conditions in central West Antarctica: Implications for detecting changes in ice dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muldoon, Gail; Jackson, Charles S.; Young, Duncan A.; Quartini, Enrica; Cavitte, Marie G. P.; Blankenship, Donald D.

2017-04-01

Information about the extent and dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during past glaciations is preserved inside ice sheets themselves. Ice cores are capable of retrieving information about glacial history, but they are spatially sparse. Ice-penetrating radar, on the other hand, has been used to map large areas of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and can be correlated to ice core chronologies. Englacial isochronous layers observed in ice-penetrating radar are the result of variations in ice composition, fabric, temperature and other factors. The shape of these isochronous surfaces is expected to encode information about past and present boundary conditions and ice dynamics. Dipping of englacial layers, for example, may reveal the presence of rapid ice flow through paleo ice streams or high geothermal heat flux. These layers therefore present a useful testbed for hypotheses about paleo ice sheet conditions. However, hypothesis testing requires careful consideration of the sensitivity of layer shape to the competing forces of ice sheet boundary conditions and ice dynamics over time. Controlled sensitivity tests are best completed using models, however ice sheet models generally do not have the capability of simulating layers in the presence of realistic boundary conditions. As such, modeling 3D englacial layers for comparison to observations is difficult and requires determination of a 3D ice velocity field. We present a method of post-processing simulated 3D ice sheet velocities into englacial isochronous layers using an advection scheme. We then test the sensitivity of layer geometry to uncertain boundary conditions, including heterogeneous subglacial geothermal flux and bedrock topography. By identifying areas of the ice sheet strongly influenced by boundary conditions, it may be possible to isolate the signature of paleo ice dynamics in the West Antarctic ice sheet.

H∞ output tracking control of uncertain and disturbed nonlinear systems based on neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chengcheng; Li, Yuefeng; Wang, Guanglin

2017-07-01

The work presented in this paper seeks to address the tracking problem for uncertain continuous nonlinear systems with external disturbances. The objective is to obtain a model that uses a reference-based output feedback tracking control law. The control scheme is based on neural networks and a linear difference inclusion (LDI) model, and a PDC structure and H∞ performance criterion are used to attenuate external disturbances. The stability of the whole closed-loop model is investigated using the well-known quadratic Lyapunov function. The key principles of the proposed approach are as follows: neural networks are first used to approximate nonlinearities, to enable a nonlinear system to then be represented as a linearised LDI model. An LMI (linear matrix inequality) formula is obtained for uncertain and disturbed linear systems. This formula enables a solution to be obtained through an interior point optimisation method for some nonlinear output tracking control problems. Finally, simulations and comparisons are provided on two practical examples to illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Non-fragile observer-based output feedback control for polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Kaiqun; Song, Yan; Zhang, Sunjie; Zhong, Zhaozhun

2017-07-01

In this paper, a non-fragile observer-based output feedback control problem for the polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control (MPC) approach is discussed. By decomposing the global system into some subsystems, the computation complexity is reduced, so it follows that the online designing time can be saved.Moreover, an observer-based output feedback control algorithm is proposed in the framework of distributed MPC to deal with the difficulties in obtaining the states measurements. In this way, the presented observer-based output-feedback MPC strategy is more flexible and applicable in practice than the traditional state-feedback one. What is more, the non-fragility of the controller has been taken into consideration in favour of increasing the robustness of the polytopic uncertain system. After that, a sufficient stability criterion is presented by using Lyapunov-like functional approach, meanwhile, the corresponding control law and the upper bound of the quadratic cost function are derived by solving an optimisation subject to convex constraints. Finally, some simulation examples are employed to show the effectiveness of the method.

Indirect adaptive fuzzy wavelet neural network with self- recurrent consequent part for AC servo system.

PubMed

Hou, Runmin; Wang, Li; Gao, Qiang; Hou, Yuanglong; Wang, Chao

2017-09-01

This paper proposes a novel indirect adaptive fuzzy wavelet neural network (IAFWNN) to control the nonlinearity, wide variations in loads, time-variation and uncertain disturbance of the ac servo system. In the proposed approach, the self-recurrent wavelet neural network (SRWNN) is employed to construct an adaptive self-recurrent consequent part for each fuzzy rule of TSK fuzzy model. For the IAFWNN controller, the online learning algorithm is based on back propagation (BP) algorithm. Moreover, an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) is used to adapt the learning rate. The aid of an adaptive SRWNN identifier offers the real-time gradient information to the adaptive fuzzy wavelet neural controller to overcome the impact of parameter variations, load disturbances and other uncertainties effectively, and has a good dynamic. The asymptotical stability of the system is guaranteed by using the Lyapunov method. The result of the simulation and the prototype test prove that the proposed are effective and suitable. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An inexact reverse logistics model for municipal solid waste management systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi Mei; Huang, Guo He; He, Li

2011-03-01

This paper proposed an inexact reverse logistics model for municipal solid waste management systems (IRWM). Waste managers, suppliers, industries and distributors were involved in strategic planning and operational execution through reverse logistics management. All the parameters were assumed to be intervals to quantify the uncertainties in the optimization process and solutions in IRWM. To solve this model, a piecewise interval programming was developed to deal with Min-Min functions in both objectives and constraints. The application of the model was illustrated through a classical municipal solid waste management case. With different cost parameters for landfill and the WTE, two scenarios were analyzed. The IRWM could reflect the dynamic and uncertain characteristics of MSW management systems, and could facilitate the generation of desired management plans. The model could be further advanced through incorporating methods of stochastic or fuzzy parameters into its framework. Design of multi-waste, multi-echelon, multi-uncertainty reverse logistics model for waste management network would also be preferred. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing vulnerability, building resilience: community-based adaptation to vector-borne diseases in the context of global change.

PubMed

Bardosh, Kevin Louis; Ryan, Sadie J; Ebi, Kris; Welburn, Susan; Singer, Burton

2017-12-11

The threat of a rapidly changing planet - of coupled social, environmental and climatic change - pose new conceptual and practical challenges in responding to vector-borne diseases. These include non-linear and uncertain spatial-temporal change dynamics associated with climate, animals, land, water, food, settlement, conflict, ecology and human socio-cultural, economic and political-institutional systems. To date, research efforts have been dominated by disease modeling, which has provided limited practical advice to policymakers and practitioners in developing policies and programmes on the ground. In this paper, we provide an alternative biosocial perspective grounded in social science insights, drawing upon concepts of vulnerability, resilience, participation and community-based adaptation. Our analysis was informed by a realist review (provided in the Additional file 2) focused on seven major climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases: malaria, schistosomiasis, dengue, leishmaniasis, sleeping sickness, chagas disease, and rift valley fever. Here, we situate our analysis of existing community-based interventions within the context of global change processes and the wider social science literature. We identify and discuss best practices and conceptual principles that should guide future community-based efforts to mitigate human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases. We argue that more focused attention and investments are needed in meaningful public participation, appropriate technologies, the strengthening of health systems, sustainable development, wider institutional changes and attention to the social determinants of health, including the drivers of co-infection. In order to respond effectively to uncertain future scenarios for vector-borne disease in a changing world, more attention needs to be given to building resilient and equitable systems in the present.

Student teachers' pedagogical content knowledge for teaching systems thinking: effects of different interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenkränzer, Frank; Hörsch, Christian; Schuler, Stephan; Riess, Werner

2017-09-01

Systems' thinking has become increasingly relevant not only in education for sustainable development but also in everyday life. Even if teachers know the dynamics and complexity of living systems in biology and geography, they might not be able to effectively explain it to students. Teachers need an understanding of systems and their behaviour (content knowledge), and they also need to know how systems thinking can be fostered in students (pedagogical content knowledge (PCK)). But the effective development of teachers' professional knowledge in teaching systems thinking is empirically uncertain. From a larger study (SysThema) that investigated teaching systems thinking, this article reports the effects of the three different interventions (technical course, didactic course and mixed course) in student teachers' PCK for teaching systems thinking. The results show that student teachers' PCK for teaching systems thinking can be promoted in teacher education. The conclusion to be drawn from our findings is that a technically orientated course without didactical aspects seems to be less effective in fostering student teachers' PCK for teaching systems thinking. The results inform educators in enhancing curricula of future academic track and non-academic track teacher education.

Processing uncertain RFID data in traceability supply chains.

PubMed

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie; Guo, Guangjun; Jiang, Tong

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries.

Processing Uncertain RFID Data in Traceability Supply Chains

PubMed Central

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries. PMID:24737978

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

Ga-67 positivity in sarcoidosis of the skin with coincident thyroid uptake of uncertain etiology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moreno, A.J.; Brown, J.M.; Salinas, J.A.

1984-03-01

Gallium-67 citrate scintigraphy of a 26-year-old woman with systemic sarcoidosis demonstrated abnormal radiotracer uptake within multiple biopsy-proven sarcoidal cutaneous lesions and within both lobes of the thyroid gland. The etiology of the thyroidal uptake of the Ga-67 was uncertain but it may represent sarcoidal involvement of the gland.

Integration of Online Parameter Identification and Neural Network for In-Flight Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hageman, Jacob J.; Smith, Mark S.; Stachowiak, Susan

2003-01-01

An indirect adaptive system has been constructed for robust control of an aircraft with uncertain aerodynamic characteristics. This system consists of a multilayer perceptron pre-trained neural network, online stability and control derivative identification, a dynamic cell structure online learning neural network, and a model following control system based on the stochastic optimal feedforward and feedback technique. The pre-trained neural network and model following control system have been flight-tested, but the online parameter identification and online learning neural network are new additions used for in-flight adaptation of the control system model. A description of the modification and integration of these two stand-alone software packages into the complete system in preparation for initial flight tests is presented. Open-loop results using both simulation and flight data, as well as closed-loop performance of the complete system in a nonlinear, six-degree-of-freedom, flight validated simulation, are analyzed. Results show that this online learning system, in contrast to the nonlearning system, has the ability to adapt to changes in aerodynamic characteristics in a real-time, closed-loop, piloted simulation, resulting in improved flying qualities.

Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

2016-10-01

An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

Identifying Model-Based Reconfiguration Goals through Functional Deficiencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benazera, Emmanuel; Trave-Massuyes, Louise

2004-01-01

Model-based diagnosis is now advanced to the point autonomous systems face some uncertain and faulty situations with success. The next step toward more autonomy is to have the system recovering itself after faults occur, a process known as model-based reconfiguration. After faults occur, given a prediction of the nominal behavior of the system and the result of the diagnosis operation, this paper details how to automatically determine the functional deficiencies of the system. These deficiencies are characterized in the case of uncertain state estimates. A methodology is then presented to determine the reconfiguration goals based on the deficiencies. Finally, a recovery process interleaves planning and model predictive control to restore the functionalities in prioritized order.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng; Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Computer program for single input-output, single-loop feedback systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Additional work is reported on a completely automatic computer program for the design of single input/output, single loop feedback systems with parameter uncertainly, to satisfy time domain bounds on the system response to step commands and disturbances. The inputs to the program are basically the specified time-domain response bounds, the form of the constrained plant transfer function and the ranges of the uncertain parameters of the plant. The program output consists of the transfer functions of the two free compensation networks, in the form of the coefficients of the numerator and denominator polynomials, and the data on the prescribed bounds and the extremes actually obtained for the system response to commands and disturbances.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay

PubMed Central

Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

2016-01-01

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method. PMID:27669005

Using Large-Scale Cooperative Control to Manage Operational Uncertainties for Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaxa-Rozen, M.; Rostampour, V.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Bloemendal, M.

2017-12-01

Seasonal Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) technology can help reduce the demand of energy for heating and cooling in buildings, and has become a popular option for larger buildings in northern Europe. However, the larger-scale deployment of this technology has evidenced some issues of concern for policymakers; in particular, recent research shows that operational uncertainties contribute to inefficient outcomes under current planning methods for ATES. For instance, systems in the Netherlands typically use less than half of their permitted pumping volume on an annual basis. This overcapacity gives users more flexibility to operate their systems in response to the uncertainties which drive building energy demand; these include short-term operational factors such as weather and occupancy, and longer-term, deeply uncertain factors such as changes in climate and aquifer conditions over the lifespan of the buildings. However, as allocated subsurface volume remains unused, this situation limits the adoption of the technology in dense areas. Previous work using coupled agent-based/geohydrological simulation has shown that the cooperative operation of neighbouring ATES systems can support more efficient spatial planning, by dynamically managing thermal interactions in response to uncertain operating conditions. An idealized case study with centralized ATES control thus showed significant improvements in the energy savings which could obtained per unit of allocated subsurface volume, without degrading the recovery performance of systems. This work will extend this cooperative approach for a realistic case study of ATES planning in the city of Utrecht, in the Netherlands. This case was previously simulated under different scenarios for individual ATES operation. The poster will compare these results with a cooperative case under which neighbouring systems can coordinate their operation to manage interactions. Furthermore, a cooperative game-theoretical framework will be used to analyze the theoretical conditions under which cooperation between ATES operators could be assumed to be stable and beneficial, under a range of scenarios for climate trends and ATES adoption pathways.

A new look at the Y tetraquarks and Ω _c baryons in the diquark model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Ahmed; Maiani, Luciano; Borisov, Anatoly V.; Ahmed, Ishtiaq; Aslam, M. Jamil; Parkhomenko, Alexander Ya.; Polosa, Antonio D.; Rehman, Abdur

2018-01-01

We analyze the hidden charm P-wave tetraquarks in the diquark model, using an effective Hamiltonian incorporating the dominant spin-spin, spin-orbit and tensor interactions. We compare with other P-wave systems such as P-wave charmonia and the newly discovered Ω _c baryons, analysed recently in this framework. Given the uncertain experimental situation on the Y states, we allow for different spectra and discuss the related parameters in the diquark model. In addition to the presently observed ones, we expect many more states in the supermultiplet of L=1 diquarkonia, whose J^{PC} quantum numbers and masses are worked out, using the parameters from the currently preferred Y-states pattern. The existence of these new resonances would be a decisive footprint of the underlying diquark dynamics.

Linking definitions, mechanisms, and modeling of drought-induced tree death.

PubMed

Anderegg, William R L; Berry, Joseph A; Field, Christopher B

2012-12-01

Tree death from drought and heat stress is a critical and uncertain component in forest ecosystem responses to a changing climate. Recent research has illuminated how tree mortality is a complex cascade of changes involving interconnected plant systems over multiple timescales. Explicit consideration of the definitions, dynamics, and temporal and biological scales of tree mortality research can guide experimental and modeling approaches. In this review, we draw on the medical literature concerning human death to propose a water resource-based approach to tree mortality that considers the tree as a complex organism with a distinct growth strategy. This approach provides insight into mortality mechanisms at the tree and landscape scales and presents promising avenues into modeling tree death from drought and temperature stress. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bacterial-modulated host immunity and stem cell activation for gut homeostasis.

PubMed

Lee, Won-Jae

2009-10-01

Although it is widely accepted that dynamic cross-talk between gut epithelia and microorganisms must occur to achieve gut homeostasis, the critical mechanisms by which gut-microbe interactions are regulated remain uncertain. In this issue of Genes & Development, Buchon and colleagues (pp. 2333-2344) revealed that the reaction of the gut to microorganisms is not restricted to activating immune systems, but extends to integrated responses essential for gut tissue homeostasis, including self-renewal and the differentiation of stem cells. Further investigation of the connection between immune response and stem cell regulation at the molecular level in the microbe-laden mucosal epithelia will accelerate our understanding of the regulatory mechanisms of gut homeostasis and of the pathogenesis of diseases such as chronic inflammatory diseases and colorectal cancers.

Crew collaboration in space: a naturalistic decision-making perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith

2005-01-01

Successful long-duration space missions will depend on the ability of crewmembers to respond promptly and effectively to unanticipated problems that arise under highly stressful conditions. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) exploits the knowledge and experience of decision makers in meaningful work domains, especially complex sociotechnical systems, including aviation and space. Decision making in these ambiguous, dynamic, high-risk environments is a complex task that involves defining the nature of the problem and crafting a response to achieve one's goals. Goal conflicts, time pressures, and uncertain outcomes may further complicate the process. This paper reviews theory and research pertaining to the NDM model and traces some of the implications for space crews and other groups that perform meaningful work in extreme environments. It concludes with specific recommendations for preparing exploration crews to use NDM effectively.

Robust control of flexible space vehicles with minimum structural excitation: On-off pulse control of flexible space vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Liu, Qiang

1992-01-01

Both feedback and feedforward control approaches for uncertain dynamical systems (in particular, with uncertainty in structural mode frequency) are investigated. The control objective is to achieve a fast settling time (high performance) and robustness (insensitivity) to plant uncertainty. Preshaping of an ideal, time optimal control input using a tapped-delay filter is shown to provide a fast settling time with robust performance. A robust, non-minimum-phase feedback controller is synthesized with particular emphasis on its proper implementation for a non-zero set-point control problem. It is shown that a properly designed, feedback controller performs well, as compared with a time optimal open loop controller with special preshaping for performance robustness. Also included are two separate papers by the same authors on this subject.

Adaptive neural network backstepping control for a class of uncertain fractional-order chaotic systems with unknown backlash-like hysteresis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Yimin; Lv, Hui, E-mail: lvhui207@gmail.com

In this paper, we consider the control problem of a class of uncertain fractional-order chaotic systems preceded by unknown backlash-like hysteresis nonlinearities based on backstepping control algorithm. We model the hysteresis by using a differential equation. Based on the fractional Lyapunov stability criterion and the backstepping algorithm procedures, an adaptive neural network controller is driven. No knowledge of the upper bound of the disturbance and system uncertainty is required in our controller, and the asymptotical convergence of the tracking error can be guaranteed. Finally, we give two simulation examples to confirm our theoretical results.

Global adaptive control for uncertain nonaffine nonlinear hysteretic systems.

PubMed

Liu, Yong-Hua; Huang, Liangpei; Xiao, Dongming; Guo, Yong

2015-09-01

In this paper, the global output tracking is investigated for a class of uncertain nonlinear hysteretic systems with nonaffine structures. By combining the solution properties of the hysteresis model with the novel backstepping approach, a robust adaptive control algorithm is developed without constructing a hysteresis inverse. The proposed control scheme is further modified to tackle the bounded disturbances by adaptively estimating their bounds. It is rigorously proven that the designed adaptive controllers can guarantee global stability of the closed-loop system. Two numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed control schemes. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impedance learning for robotic contact tasks using natural actor-critic algorithm.

PubMed

Kim, Byungchan; Park, Jooyoung; Park, Shinsuk; Kang, Sungchul

2010-04-01

Compared with their robotic counterparts, humans excel at various tasks by using their ability to adaptively modulate arm impedance parameters. This ability allows us to successfully perform contact tasks even in uncertain environments. This paper considers a learning strategy of motor skill for robotic contact tasks based on a human motor control theory and machine learning schemes. Our robot learning method employs impedance control based on the equilibrium point control theory and reinforcement learning to determine the impedance parameters for contact tasks. A recursive least-square filter-based episodic natural actor-critic algorithm is used to find the optimal impedance parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed method was tested through dynamic simulations of various contact tasks. The simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method optimizes the performance of the contact tasks in uncertain conditions of the environment.

State-space self-tuner for on-line adaptive control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shieh, L. S.

1994-01-01

Dynamic systems, such as flight vehicles, satellites and space stations, operating in real environments, constantly face parameter and/or structural variations owing to nonlinear behavior of actuators, failure of sensors, changes in operating conditions, disturbances acting on the system, etc. In the past three decades, adaptive control has been shown to be effective in dealing with dynamic systems in the presence of parameter uncertainties, structural perturbations, random disturbances and environmental variations. Among the existing adaptive control methodologies, the state-space self-tuning control methods, initially proposed by us, are shown to be effective in designing advanced adaptive controllers for multivariable systems. In our approaches, we have embedded the standard Kalman state-estimation algorithm into an online parameter estimation algorithm. Thus, the advanced state-feedback controllers can be easily established for digital adaptive control of continuous-time stochastic multivariable systems. A state-space self-tuner for a general multivariable stochastic system has been developed and successfully applied to the space station for on-line adaptive control. Also, a technique for multistage design of an optimal momentum management controller for the space station has been developed and reported in. Moreover, we have successfully developed various digital redesign techniques which can convert a continuous-time controller to an equivalent digital controller. As a result, the expensive and unreliable continuous-time controller can be implemented using low-cost and high performance microprocessors. Recently, we have developed a new hybrid state-space self tuner using a new dual-rate sampling scheme for on-line adaptive control of continuous-time uncertain systems.

Estimation in Linear Systems Featuring Correlated Uncertain Observations Coming from Multiple Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caballero-Águila, R.; Hermoso-Carazo, A.; Linares-Pérez, J.

2009-08-01

In this paper, the state least-squares linear estimation problem from correlated uncertain observations coming from multiple sensors is addressed. It is assumed that, at each sensor, the state is measured in the presence of additive white noise and that the uncertainty in the observations is characterized by a set of Bernoulli random variables which are only correlated at consecutive time instants. Assuming that the statistical properties of such variables are not necessarily the same for all the sensors, a recursive filtering algorithm is proposed, and the performance of the estimators is illustrated by a numerical simulation example wherein a signal is estimated from correlated uncertain observations coming from two sensors with different uncertainty characteristics.

Stability analysis of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems.

PubMed

Bhiwani, R J; Patre, B M

2011-10-01

In this paper, the determination of stability margin, gain and phase margin aspects of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems are dealt. The stability analysis of uncertain linear systems with coefficients described by fuzzy functions is studied. A complexity reduced technique for determining the stability margin for FPUS is proposed. The method suggested is dependent on the order of the characteristic polynomial. In order to find the stability margin of interval polynomials of order less than 5, it is not always necessary to determine and check all four Kharitonov's polynomials. It has been shown that, for determining stability margin of FPUS of order five, four, and three we require only 3, 2, and 1 Kharitonov's polynomials respectively. Only for sixth and higher order polynomials, a complete set of Kharitonov's polynomials are needed to determine the stability margin. Thus for lower order systems, the calculations are reduced to a large extent. This idea has been extended to determine the stability margin of fuzzy interval polynomials. It is also shown that the gain and phase margin of FPUS can be determined analytically without using graphical techniques. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability-based constrained MPC for structured uncertain systems with state and random input delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jianbo; Li, Dewei; Xi, Yugeng

2013-07-01

This article is concerned with probability-based constrained model predictive control (MPC) for systems with both structured uncertainties and time delays, where a random input delay and multiple fixed state delays are included. The process of input delay is governed by a discrete-time finite-state Markov chain. By invoking an appropriate augmented state, the system is transformed into a standard structured uncertain time-delay Markov jump linear system (MJLS). For the resulting system, a multi-step feedback control law is utilised to minimise an upper bound on the expected value of performance objective. The proposed design has been proved to stabilise the closed-loop system in the mean square sense and to guarantee constraints on control inputs and system states. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed results.

Second-order sliding mode controller with model reference adaptation for automatic train operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganesan, M.; Ezhilarasi, D.; Benni, Jijo

2017-11-01

In this paper, a new approach to model reference based adaptive second-order sliding mode control together with adaptive state feedback is presented to control the longitudinal dynamic motion of a high speed train for automatic train operation with the objective of minimal jerk travel by the passengers. The nonlinear dynamic model for the longitudinal motion of the train comprises of a locomotive and coach subsystems is constructed using multiple point-mass model by considering the forces acting on the vehicle. An adaptation scheme using Lyapunov criterion is derived to tune the controller gains by considering a linear, stable reference model that ensures the stability of the system in closed loop. The effectiveness of the controller tracking performance is tested under uncertain passenger load, coupler-draft gear parameters, propulsion resistance coefficients variations and environmental disturbances due to side wind and wet rail conditions. The results demonstrate improved tracking performance of the proposed control scheme with a least jerk under maximum parameter uncertainties when compared to constant gain second-order sliding mode control.

Modeling socio-cultural processes in network-centric environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eunice E.; Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Korah, John; George, Riya; Gu, Qi; Kim, Keumjoo; Li, Deqing; Russell, Jacob; Subramanian, Suresh

2012-05-01

The major focus in the field of modeling & simulation for network centric environments has been on the physical layer while making simplifications for the human-in-the-loop. However, the human element has a big impact on the capabilities of network centric systems. Taking into account the socio-behavioral aspects of processes such as team building, group decision-making, etc. are critical to realistically modeling and analyzing system performance. Modeling socio-cultural processes is a challenge because of the complexity of the networks, dynamism in the physical and social layers, feedback loops and uncertainty in the modeling data. We propose an overarching framework to represent, model and analyze various socio-cultural processes within network centric environments. The key innovation in our methodology is to simultaneously model the dynamism in both the physical and social layers while providing functional mappings between them. We represent socio-cultural information such as friendships, professional relationships and temperament by leveraging the Culturally Infused Social Network (CISN) framework. The notion of intent is used to relate the underlying socio-cultural factors to observed behavior. We will model intent using Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs), a probabilistic reasoning network, which can represent incomplete and uncertain socio-cultural information. We will leverage previous work on a network performance modeling framework called Network-Centric Operations Performance and Prediction (N-COPP) to incorporate dynamism in various aspects of the physical layer such as node mobility, transmission parameters, etc. We validate our framework by simulating a suitable scenario, incorporating relevant factors and providing analyses of the results.

Inferring topologies via driving-based generalized synchronization of two-layer networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingfei; Wu, Xiaoqun; Feng, Hui; Lu, Jun-an; Xu, Yuhua

2016-05-01

The interaction topology among the constituents of a complex network plays a crucial role in the network’s evolutionary mechanisms and functional behaviors. However, some network topologies are usually unknown or uncertain. Meanwhile, coupling delays are ubiquitous in various man-made and natural networks. Hence, it is necessary to gain knowledge of the whole or partial topology of a complex dynamical network by taking into consideration communication delay. In this paper, topology identification of complex dynamical networks is investigated via generalized synchronization of a two-layer network. Particularly, based on the LaSalle-type invariance principle of stochastic differential delay equations, an adaptive control technique is proposed by constructing an auxiliary layer and designing proper control input and updating laws so that the unknown topology can be recovered upon successful generalized synchronization. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The technique provides a certain theoretical basis for topology inference of complex networks. In particular, when the considered network is composed of systems with high-dimension or complicated dynamics, a simpler response layer can be constructed, which is conducive to circuit design. Moreover, it is practical to take into consideration perturbations caused by control input. Finally, the method is applicable to infer topology of a subnetwork embedded within a complex system and locate hidden sources. We hope the results can provide basic insight into further research endeavors on understanding practical and economical topology inference of networks.

When does ecological sustainability ensure economic sustainability? An integrated analysis of thresholds in semi-arid western rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobourn, K. M.; Peckham, S. D.

2011-12-01

The vulnerability of agri-environmental systems to ecological threshold events depends on the combined influence of economic factors and natural drivers, such as climate and disturbance. This analysis builds an integrated ecologic-economic model to evaluate the behavioral response of agricultural producers to changing and uncertain natural conditions. The model explicitly reflects the effect of producer behavior on the likelihood of a threshold event that threatens the ecological and/or economic sustainability of the agri-environmental system. The foundation of the analysis is a threshold indicator that incorporates the population dynamics of a species that supports economic production and an episodic disturbance regime-in this case rangeland grass that is grazed by livestock and is subject to wildfire. This ecological indicator is integrated into an economic model in which producers choose grazing intensity given the state of the grass population and a set of economic parameters. We examine two model variants that characterize differing economic circumstances. The first characterizes the optimal grazing regime assuming that the system is managed by a single planner whose objective is to maximize the aggregate long-run returns of producers in the system. The second examines the case in which individual producers choose their own stocking rates in order to maximize their private economic benefit. The results from the first model variant illustrate the difference between an ecologic and an economic threshold. Failure to cross an ecological threshold does not necessarily ensure that the system remains economically viable: Economic sustainability, defined as the ability of the system to support optimal production into the infinite future, requires that the net growth rate of the supporting population exceeds the level required for ecological sustainability by an amount that depends on the market price of livestock and grazing efficiency. The results from the second model variant define the circumstances under which a system that is otherwise ecologically sustainable is driven over a threshold by the actions of economic agents. The difference between the two model solutions identifies bounds between which the viability of livestock production over the long-run is uncertain and depends upon the policy setting in which the agri-environmental system operates.

A robust H∞-tracking design for uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with unknown premise variables using descriptor redundancy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan Asemani, Mohammad; Johari Majd, Vahid

2015-12-01

This paper addresses a robust H∞ fuzzy observer-based tracking design problem for uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with external disturbances. To have a practical observer-based controller, the premise variables of the system are assumed to be not measurable in general, which leads to a more complex design process. The tracker is synthesised based on a fuzzy Lyapunov function approach and non-parallel distributed compensation (non-PDC) scheme. Using the descriptor redundancy approach, the robust stability conditions are derived in the form of strict linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) even in the presence of uncertainties in the system, input, and output matrices simultaneously. Numerical simulations are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Finite-time master-slave synchronization and parameter identification for uncertain Lurie systems.

PubMed

Wang, Tianbo; Zhao, Shouwei; Zhou, Wuneng; Yu, Weiqin

2014-07-01

This paper investigates the finite-time master-slave synchronization and parameter identification problem for uncertain Lurie systems based on the finite-time stability theory and the adaptive control method. The finite-time master-slave synchronization means that the state of a slave system follows with that of a master system in finite time, which is more reasonable than the asymptotical synchronization in applications. The uncertainties include the unknown parameters and noise disturbances. An adaptive controller and update laws which ensures the synchronization and parameter identification to be realized in finite time are constructed. Finally, two numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust Control of Uncertain Systems via Dissipative LQG-Type Controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Suresh M.

2000-01-01

Optimal controller design is addressed for a class of linear, time-invariant systems which are dissipative with respect to a quadratic power function. The system matrices are assumed to be affine functions of uncertain parameters confined to a convex polytopic region in the parameter space. For such systems, a method is developed for designing a controller which is dissipative with respect to a given power function, and is simultaneously optimal in the linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) sense. The resulting controller provides robust stability as well as optimal performance. Three important special cases, namely, passive, norm-bounded, and sector-bounded controllers, which are also LQG-optimal, are presented. The results give new methods for robust controller design in the presence of parametric uncertainties.

Adaptive output-feedback control for switched stochastic uncertain nonlinear systems with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Song, Zhibao; Zhai, Junyong

2018-04-01

This paper addresses the problem of adaptive output-feedback control for a class of switched stochastic time-delay nonlinear systems with uncertain output function, where both the control coefficients and time-varying delay are unknown. The drift and diffusion terms are subject to unknown homogeneous growth condition. By virtue of adding a power integrator technique, an adaptive output-feedback controller is designed to render that the closed-loop system is bounded in probability, and the state of switched stochastic nonlinear system can be globally regulated to the origin almost surely. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed control method. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Absolute Stability Analysis in Fuzzy Control Systems with Parametric Uncertainties and Reference Inputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bing-Fei; Ma, Li-Shan; Perng, Jau-Woei

This study analyzes the absolute stability in P and PD type fuzzy logic control systems with both certain and uncertain linear plants. Stability analysis includes the reference input, actuator gain and interval plant parameters. For certain linear plants, the stability (i.e. the stable equilibriums of error) in P and PD types is analyzed with the Popov or linearization methods under various reference inputs and actuator gains. The steady state errors of fuzzy control systems are also addressed in the parameter plane. The parametric robust Popov criterion for parametric absolute stability based on Lur'e systems is also applied to the stability analysis of P type fuzzy control systems with uncertain plants. The PD type fuzzy logic controller in our approach is a single-input fuzzy logic controller and is transformed into the P type for analysis. In our work, the absolute stability analysis of fuzzy control systems is given with respect to a non-zero reference input and an uncertain linear plant with the parametric robust Popov criterion unlike previous works. Moreover, a fuzzy current controlled RC circuit is designed with PSPICE models. Both numerical and PSPICE simulations are provided to verify the analytical results. Furthermore, the oscillation mechanism in fuzzy control systems is specified with various equilibrium points of view in the simulation example. Finally, the comparisons are also given to show the effectiveness of the analysis method.

Plan Debugging Using Approximate Domain Theories.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-03-01

compelling suggestion that generative plan- ning systems solving large problems will need to exploit the control information implicit in uncertain...control information implicit in uncertain information may well lead the planner to expand one portion of a plan at one point, and a separate portion of...solutions that have been proposed are to abandon declarativism (as suggested in the work on situated automata theory and its variants [1, 16, 56, 72

Adaptive Neural Network Based Control of Noncanonical Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanjun; Tao, Gang; Chen, Mou

2016-09-01

This paper presents a new study on the adaptive neural network-based control of a class of noncanonical nonlinear systems with large parametric uncertainties. Unlike commonly studied canonical form nonlinear systems whose neural network approximation system models have explicit relative degree structures, which can directly be used to derive parameterized controllers for adaptation, noncanonical form nonlinear systems usually do not have explicit relative degrees, and thus their approximation system models are also in noncanonical forms. It is well-known that the adaptive control of noncanonical form nonlinear systems involves the parameterization of system dynamics. As demonstrated in this paper, it is also the case for noncanonical neural network approximation system models. Effective control of such systems is an open research problem, especially in the presence of uncertain parameters. This paper shows that it is necessary to reparameterize such neural network system models for adaptive control design, and that such reparameterization can be realized using a relative degree formulation, a concept yet to be studied for general neural network system models. This paper then derives the parameterized controllers that guarantee closed-loop stability and asymptotic output tracking for noncanonical form neural network system models. An illustrative example is presented with the simulation results to demonstrate the control design procedure, and to verify the effectiveness of such a new design method.

Robust adaptive uniform exact tracking control for uncertain Euler-Lagrange system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yana; Hua, Changchun; Li, Junpeng; Guan, Xinping

2017-12-01

This paper offers a solution to the robust adaptive uniform exact tracking control for uncertain nonlinear Euler-Lagrange (EL) system. An adaptive finite-time tracking control algorithm is designed by proposing a novel nonsingular integral terminal sliding-mode surface. Moreover, a new adaptive parameter tuning law is also developed by making good use of the system tracking errors and the adaptive parameter estimation errors. Thus, both the trajectory tracking and the parameter estimation can be achieved in a guaranteed time adjusted arbitrarily based on practical demands, simultaneously. Additionally, the control result for the EL system proposed in this paper can be extended to high-order nonlinear systems easily. Finally, a test-bed 2-DOF robot arm is set-up to demonstrate the performance of the new control algorithm.

Distributed Episodic and Analogical Reasoning (DEAR)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

of a more abstract class like environmental catastrophe. Analogical reasoning researchers like Gentner and Stevens (1983) caution that “the...hurricane and an earthquake can be useful for quickly determining how to respond to an environmental catastrophe in general but will need to be...with Uncertain Dynamic Outside Options. Proceedings of the First IEEE International Workshop on Electronic Contracting ( WEC 󈧈), p.54-61, July 06-06

Diver Relative UUV Navigation for Joint Human-Robot Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

loop response: (10) where Kej is the gain that scales the position error to force . Substituting the measured values for ζ and ων as well as the...Underwater Vehicle; Tethered ; Hovering; Autonomous Underwater Vehicle; Joint human-robot operations; dynamic, uncertain environments 15. NUMBER OF PAGES...4   Figure 3.   The SeaBotix vLBV300 tethered AUV platform (left), and the planar vectored thruster

Dynamic value assessments in oncology supported by the PACE Continuous Innovation Indicators.

PubMed

Paddock, Silvia; Goodman, Clifford; Shortenhaus, Scott; Grainger, David; Zummo, Jacqueline; Thomas, Samuel

2017-10-01

Several recently developed frameworks aim to assess the value of cancer treatments, but the most appropriate metrics remain uncertain. We use data from the Patient Access to Cancer care Excellence Continuous Innovation Indicators to examine the relationship between hazard ratios (HRs) from clinical trials and dynamic therapeutic value accumulating over time. Our analysis shows that HRs from initial clinical trials poorly predict the eventual therapeutic value of cancer treatments. Relying strongly on HRs from registration trials to predict the long-term success of treatments leaves a lot of the variance unexplained. The Continuous Innovation Indicators offer a complementing, dynamic method to track the therapeutic value of cancer treatments and continuously update value assessments as additional evidence accumulates.

Adaptive integral dynamic surface control of a hypersonic flight vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslam Butt, Waseem; Yan, Lin; Amezquita S., Kendrick

2015-07-01

In this article, non-linear adaptive dynamic surface air speed and flight path angle control designs are presented for the longitudinal dynamics of a flexible hypersonic flight vehicle. The tracking performance of the control design is enhanced by introducing a novel integral term that caters to avoiding a large initial control signal. To ensure feasibility, the design scheme incorporates magnitude and rate constraints on the actuator commands. The uncertain non-linear functions are approximated by an efficient use of the neural networks to reduce the computational load. A detailed stability analysis shows that all closed-loop signals are uniformly ultimately bounded and the ? tracking performance is guaranteed. The robustness of the design scheme is verified through numerical simulations of the flexible flight vehicle model.

New perspectives in ecosystem services science as instruments to understand environmental securities

PubMed Central

Villa, Ferdinando; Voigt, Brian; Erickson, Jon D.

2014-01-01

As societal demand for food, water and other life-sustaining resources grows, the science of ecosystem services (ES) is seen as a promising tool to improve our understanding, and ultimately the management, of increasingly uncertain supplies of critical goods provided or supported by natural ecosystems. This promise, however, is tempered by a relatively primitive understanding of the complex systems supporting ES, which as a result are often quantified as static resources rather than as the dynamic expression of human–natural systems. This article attempts to pinpoint the minimum level of detail that ES science needs to achieve in order to usefully inform the debate on environmental securities, and discusses both the state of the art and recent methodological developments in ES in this light. We briefly review the field of ES accounting methods and list some desiderata that we deem necessary, reachable and relevant to address environmental securities through an improved science of ES. We then discuss a methodological innovation that, while only addressing these needs partially, can improve our understanding of ES dynamics in data-scarce situations. The methodology is illustrated and discussed through an application related to water security in the semi-arid landscape of the Great Ruaha river of Tanzania. PMID:24535393

Flexible design in water and wastewater engineering--definitions, literature and decision guide.

PubMed

Spiller, Marc; Vreeburg, Jan H G; Leusbrock, Ingo; Zeeman, Grietje

2015-02-01

Urban water and wastewater systems face uncertain developments including technological progress, climate change and urban development. To ensure the sustainability of these systems under dynamic conditions it has been proposed that technologies and infrastructure should be flexible, adaptive and robust. However, in literature it is often unclear what these technologies and infrastructure are. Furthermore, the terms flexible, adaptive and robust are often used interchangeably, despite important differences. In this paper we will i) define the terminology, ii) provide an overview of the status of flexible infrastructure design alternatives for water and wastewater networks and treatment, and iii) develop guidelines for the selection of flexible design alternatives. Results indicate that, with the exception of Net Present Valuation methods, there is little research available on the design and evaluation of technologies that can enable flexibility. Flexible design alternatives reviewed include robust design, phased design, modular design, modular/component platform design and design for remanufacturing. As developments in the water sector are driven by slow variables (climate change, urban development), rather than market forces, it is suggested that phased design or component platform designs are suitable for responding to change, while robust design is an option when operations face highly dynamic variability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ξTauri: a unique laboratory to study the dynamic interaction in a compact hierarchical quadruple system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemravová, J. A.; Harmanec, P.; Brož, M.; Vokrouhlický, D.; Mourard, D.; Hummel, C. A.; Cameron, C.; Matthews, J. M.; Bolton, C. T.; Božić, H.; Chini, R.; Dembsky, T.; Engle, S.; Farrington, C.; Grunhut, J. H.; Guenther, D. B.; Guinan, E. F.; Korčáková, D.; Koubský, P.; Kříček, R.; Kuschnig, R.; Mayer, P.; McCook, G. P.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Nardetto, N.; Prša, A.; Ribeiro, J.; Rowe, J.; Rucinski, S.; Škoda, P.; Šlechta, M.; Tallon-Bosc, I.; Votruba, V.; Weiss, W. W.; Wolf, M.; Zasche, P.; Zavala, R. T.

2016-10-01

Context. Compact hierarchical systems are important because the effects caused by the dynamical interaction among its members occur ona human timescale. These interactions play a role in the formation of close binaries through Kozai cycles with tides. One such system is ξ Tauri: it has three hierarchical orbits: 7.14 d (eclipsing components Aa, Ab), 145 d (components Aa+Ab, B), and 51 yr (components Aa+Ab+B, C). Aims: We aim to obtain physical properties of the system and to study the dynamical interaction between its components. Methods: Our analysis is based on a large series of spectroscopic photometric (including space-borne) observations and long-baseline optical and infrared spectro-interferometric observations. We used two approaches to infer the system properties: a set of observation-specific models, where all components have elliptical trajectories, and an N-body model, which computes the trajectory of each component by integrating Newton's equations of motion. Results: The triple subsystem exhibits clear signs of dynamical interaction. The most pronounced are the advance of the apsidal line and eclipse-timing variations. We determined the geometry of all three orbits using both observation-specific and N-body models. The latter correctly accounted for observed effects of the dynamical interaction, predicted cyclic variations of orbital inclinations, and determined the sense of motion of all orbits. Using perturbation theory, we demonstrate that prominent secular and periodic dynamical effects are explainable with a quadrupole interaction. We constrained the basic properties of all components, especially of members of the inner triple subsystem and detected rapid low-amplitude light variations that we attribute to co-rotating surface structures of component B. We also estimated the radius of component B. Properties of component C remain uncertain because of its low relative luminosity. We provide an independent estimate of the distance to the system. Conclusions: The accuracy and consistency of our results make ξ Tau an excellent test bed for models of formation and evolution of hierarchical systems. Full Tables D.1-D.7 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/594/A55Based on data from the MOST satellite, a former Canadian Space Agency mission, jointly operated by Microsatellite Systems Canada Inc. (MSCI; formerly Dynacon Inc.), the University of Toronto Institute for Aerospace Studies and the University of British Columbia, with the assistance of the University of Vienna.

Indirect adaptive soft computing based wavelet-embedded control paradigms for WT/PV/SOFC in a grid/charging station connected hybrid power system.

PubMed

Mumtaz, Sidra; Khan, Laiq; Ahmed, Saghir; Bader, Rabiah

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the indirect adaptive tracking control of renewable energy sources in a grid-connected hybrid power system. The renewable energy systems have low efficiency and intermittent nature due to unpredictable meteorological conditions. The domestic load and the conventional charging stations behave in an uncertain manner. To operate the renewable energy sources efficiently for harvesting maximum power, instantaneous nonlinear dynamics should be captured online. A Chebyshev-wavelet embedded NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT (maximum power point tracking) control paradigm is proposed for variable speed wind turbine-permanent synchronous generator (VSWT-PMSG). A Hermite-wavelet incorporated NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT control strategy for photovoltaic (PV) system to extract maximum power and indirect adaptive tracking control scheme for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) is developed. A comprehensive simulation test-bed for a grid-connected hybrid power system is developed in Matlab/Simulink. The robustness of the suggested indirect adaptive control paradigms are evaluated through simulation results in a grid-connected hybrid power system test-bed by comparison with conventional and intelligent control techniques. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed control paradigms.

Indirect adaptive soft computing based wavelet-embedded control paradigms for WT/PV/SOFC in a grid/charging station connected hybrid power system

PubMed Central

Khan, Laiq; Ahmed, Saghir; Bader, Rabiah

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the indirect adaptive tracking control of renewable energy sources in a grid-connected hybrid power system. The renewable energy systems have low efficiency and intermittent nature due to unpredictable meteorological conditions. The domestic load and the conventional charging stations behave in an uncertain manner. To operate the renewable energy sources efficiently for harvesting maximum power, instantaneous nonlinear dynamics should be captured online. A Chebyshev-wavelet embedded NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT (maximum power point tracking) control paradigm is proposed for variable speed wind turbine-permanent synchronous generator (VSWT-PMSG). A Hermite-wavelet incorporated NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT control strategy for photovoltaic (PV) system to extract maximum power and indirect adaptive tracking control scheme for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) is developed. A comprehensive simulation test-bed for a grid-connected hybrid power system is developed in Matlab/Simulink. The robustness of the suggested indirect adaptive control paradigms are evaluated through simulation results in a grid-connected hybrid power system test-bed by comparison with conventional and intelligent control techniques. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed control paradigms. PMID:28877191

A fuzzy logic control in adjustable autonomy of a multi-agent system for an automated elderly movement monitoring application.

PubMed

Mostafa, Salama A; Mustapha, Aida; Mohammed, Mazin Abed; Ahmad, Mohd Sharifuddin; Mahmoud, Moamin A

2018-04-01

Autonomous agents are being widely used in many systems, such as ambient assisted-living systems, to perform tasks on behalf of humans. However, these systems usually operate in complex environments that entail uncertain, highly dynamic, or irregular workload. In such environments, autonomous agents tend to make decisions that lead to undesirable outcomes. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy-logic-based adjustable autonomy (FLAA) model to manage the autonomy of multi-agent systems that are operating in complex environments. This model aims to facilitate the autonomy management of agents and help them make competent autonomous decisions. The FLAA model employs fuzzy logic to quantitatively measure and distribute autonomy among several agents based on their performance. We implement and test this model in the Automated Elderly Movements Monitoring (AEMM-Care) system, which uses agents to monitor the daily movement activities of elderly users and perform fall detection and prevention tasks in a complex environment. The test results show that the FLAA model improves the accuracy and performance of these agents in detecting and preventing falls. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vibration control of uncertain multiple launch rocket system using radial basis function neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Rui, Xiaoting

2018-01-01

Poor dispersion characteristics of rockets due to the vibration of Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) have always restricted the MLRS development for several decades. Vibration control is a key technique to improve the dispersion characteristics of rockets. For a mechanical system such as MLRS, the major difficulty in designing an appropriate control strategy that can achieve the desired vibration control performance is to guarantee the robustness and stability of the control system under the occurrence of uncertainties and nonlinearities. To approach this problem, a computed torque controller integrated with a radial basis function neural network is proposed to achieve the high-precision vibration control for MLRS. In this paper, the vibration response of a computed torque controlled MLRS is described. The azimuth and elevation mechanisms of the MLRS are driven by permanent magnet synchronous motors and supposed to be rigid. First, the dynamic model of motor-mechanism coupling system is established using Lagrange method and field-oriented control theory. Then, in order to deal with the nonlinearities, a computed torque controller is designed to control the vibration of the MLRS when it is firing a salvo of rockets. Furthermore, to compensate for the lumped uncertainty due to parametric variations and un-modeled dynamics in the design of the computed torque controller, a radial basis function neural network estimator is developed to adapt the uncertainty based on Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, the simulated results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control system and show that the proposed controller is robust with regard to the uncertainty.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters.

PubMed

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J

2016-12-20

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors.

High dimensional model representation method for fuzzy structural dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Chowdhury, R.; Friswell, M. I.

2011-03-01

Uncertainty propagation in multi-parameter complex structures possess significant computational challenges. This paper investigates the possibility of using the High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) approach when uncertain system parameters are modeled using fuzzy variables. In particular, the application of HDMR is proposed for fuzzy finite element analysis of linear dynamical systems. The HDMR expansion is an efficient formulation for high-dimensional mapping in complex systems if the higher order variable correlations are weak, thereby permitting the input-output relationship behavior to be captured by the terms of low-order. The computational effort to determine the expansion functions using the α-cut method scales polynomically with the number of variables rather than exponentially. This logic is based on the fundamental assumption underlying the HDMR representation that only low-order correlations among the input variables are likely to have significant impacts upon the outputs for most high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed method is first illustrated for multi-parameter nonlinear mathematical test functions with fuzzy variables. The method is then integrated with a commercial finite element software (ADINA). Modal analysis of a simplified aircraft wing with fuzzy parameters has been used to illustrate the generality of the proposed approach. In the numerical examples, triangular membership functions have been used and the results have been validated against direct Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that using the proposed HDMR approach, the number of finite element function calls can be reduced without significantly compromising the accuracy.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters

PubMed Central

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors. PMID:27930332

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Elliott, Kenny B.

2007-01-01

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

a Modified Genetic Algorithm for Finding Fuzzy Shortest Paths in Uncertain Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, A. A.; Delavar, M. R.

2016-06-01

In realistic network analysis, there are several uncertainties in the measurements and computation of the arcs and vertices. These uncertainties should also be considered in realizing the shortest path problem (SPP) due to the inherent fuzziness in the body of expert's knowledge. In this paper, we investigated the SPP under uncertainty to evaluate our modified genetic strategy. We improved the performance of genetic algorithm (GA) to investigate a class of shortest path problems on networks with vague arc weights. The solutions of the uncertain SPP with considering fuzzy path lengths are examined and compared in detail. As a robust metaheuristic, GA algorithm is modified and evaluated to tackle the fuzzy SPP (FSPP) with uncertain arcs. For this purpose, first, a dynamic operation is implemented to enrich the exploration/exploitation patterns of the conventional procedure and mitigate the premature convergence of GA technique. Then, the modified GA (MGA) strategy is used to resolve the FSPP. The attained results of the proposed strategy are compared to those of GA with regard to the cost, quality of paths and CPU times. Numerical instances are provided to demonstrate the success of the proposed MGA-FSPP strategy in comparison with GA. The simulations affirm that not only the proposed technique can outperform GA, but also the qualities of the paths are effectively improved. The results clarify that the competence of the proposed GA is preferred in view of quality quantities. The results also demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently be utilized to handle FSPP in uncertain networks.

Stability of uncertain systems. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, G. L.

1971-01-01

The asymptotic properties of feedback systems are discussed, containing uncertain parameters and subjected to stochastic perturbations. The approach is functional analytic in flavor and thereby avoids the use of Markov techniques and auxiliary Lyapunov functionals characteristic of the existing work in this area. The results are given for the probability distributions of the accessible signals in the system and are proved using the Prohorov theory of the convergence of measures. For general nonlinear systems, a result similar to the small loop-gain theorem of deterministic stability theory is given. Boundedness is a property of the induced distributions of the signals and not the usual notion of boundedness in norm. For the special class of feedback systems formed by the cascade of a white noise, a sector nonlinearity and convolution operator conditions are given to insure the total boundedness of the overall feedback system.

How do local stakeholders respond to the uncertain implications of an innovative flood infrastructure project?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Hoek, Ronald; Brugnach, Marcela; Hoekstra, Arjen

2013-04-01

In the 20th century, flood management was dominated by rigid structures - such as dikes and dams - which intend to strictly regulate and control water systems. Although the application of these rigid structures has been successful in the recent past, their negative implications for ecosystems and natural processes is often not properly taken into account. Therefore, flood management practices are currently moving towards more nature-inclusive approaches. Building with Nature (BwN) is such a new approach of nature-inclusive flood management in the Netherlands, which aims to utilize natural dynamics (e.g., wind and currents) and natural materials (e.g., sediment and vegetation) for the realization of effective flood infrastructure, while providing opportunities for nature development. However, the natural dynamics driving a project based on BwN design principles are inherently unpredictable. Furthermore, our factual knowledge base regarding the socio-ecological system in which the BwN initiative is implemented is incomplete. Moreover, in recent years, it is increasingly aimed for by decision-makers to involve local stakeholders in the development of promising flood management initiatives. These stakeholders and other actors involved can have diverging views regarding the project, can perceive unanticipated implications and could choose unforeseen action paths. In short, while a project based on BwN design principles - like any human intervention - definitely has implications for the socio-ecological system, both the extent to which these particular implications will occur and the response of stakeholders are highly uncertain. In this paper, we study the Safety Buffer Oyster Dam case - a BwN pilot project - and address the interplay between the project's implications, the uncertainties regarding these implications and the action paths chosen by the local stakeholders and project team. We determine how the implications of the Safety Buffer project are viewed by local stakeholders, identify the frames and uncertainties related to these implications, and classify these uncertainties according to their nature and level. We describe which action paths are chosen by the local stakeholders and project team regarding the implications identified. Our research shows that there is a correspondence between the level of uncertainty about the implications identified and the action paths chosen by the actors involved. This suggests that the inherent deep uncertainty in projects based on BwN principles calls for more adaptable and flexible strategies to cope with the implications of these initiatives.

Robotic fish tracking method based on suboptimal interval Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Xiaohong; Tang, Chao

2017-11-01

Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) research focused on tracking and positioning, precise guidance and return to dock and other fields. The robotic fish of AUV has become a hot application in intelligent education, civil and military etc. In nonlinear tracking analysis of robotic fish, which was found that the interval Kalman filter algorithm contains all possible filter results, but the range is wide, relatively conservative, and the interval data vector is uncertain before implementation. This paper proposes a ptimization algorithm of suboptimal interval Kalman filter. Suboptimal interval Kalman filter scheme used the interval inverse matrix with its worst inverse instead, is more approximate nonlinear state equation and measurement equation than the standard interval Kalman filter, increases the accuracy of the nominal dynamic system model, improves the speed and precision of tracking system. Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the optimal trajectory of sub optimal interval Kalman filter algorithm is better than that of the interval Kalman filter method and the standard method of the filter.

Quadratic stabilisability of multi-agent systems under switching topologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Yongqiang; Ji, Zhijian; Zhang, Lin; Wang, Long

2014-12-01

This paper addresses the stabilisability of multi-agent systems (MASs) under switching topologies. Necessary and/or sufficient conditions are presented in terms of graph topology. These conditions explicitly reveal how the intrinsic dynamics of the agents, the communication topology and the external control input affect stabilisability jointly. With the appropriate selection of some agents to which the external inputs are applied and the suitable design of neighbour-interaction rules via a switching topology, an MAS is proved to be stabilisable even if so is not for each of uncertain subsystem. In addition, a method is proposed to constructively design a switching rule for MASs with norm-bounded time-varying uncertainties. The switching rules designed via this method do not rely on uncertainties, and the switched MAS is quadratically stabilisable via decentralised external self-feedback for all uncertainties. With respect to applications of the stabilisability results, the formation control and the cooperative tracking control are addressed. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Adaptive Failure Compensation for Aircraft Flight Control Using Engine Differentials: Regulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Liu; Xidong, Tang; Gang, Tao; Joshi, Suresh M.

2005-01-01

The problem of using engine thrust differentials to compensate for rudder and aileron failures in aircraft flight control is addressed in this paper in a new framework. A nonlinear aircraft model that incorporates engine di erentials in the dynamic equations is employed and linearized to describe the aircraft s longitudinal and lateral motion. In this model two engine thrusts of an aircraft can be adjusted independently so as to provide the control flexibility for rudder or aileron failure compensation. A direct adaptive compensation scheme for asymptotic regulation is developed to handle uncertain actuator failures in the linearized system. A design condition is specified to characterize the system redundancy needed for failure compensation. The adaptive regulation control scheme is applied to the linearized model of a large transport aircraft in which the longitudinal and lateral motions are coupled as the result of using engine thrust differentials. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the adaptive compensation scheme.

Negative autoregulation matches production and demand in synthetic transcriptional networks.

PubMed

Franco, Elisa; Giordano, Giulia; Forsberg, Per-Ola; Murray, Richard M

2014-08-15

We propose a negative feedback architecture that regulates activity of artificial genes, or "genelets", to meet their output downstream demand, achieving robustness with respect to uncertain open-loop output production rates. In particular, we consider the case where the outputs of two genelets interact to form a single assembled product. We show with analysis and experiments that negative autoregulation matches the production and demand of the outputs: the magnitude of the regulatory signal is proportional to the "error" between the circuit output concentration and its actual demand. This two-device system is experimentally implemented using in vitro transcriptional networks, where reactions are systematically designed by optimizing nucleic acid sequences with publicly available software packages. We build a predictive ordinary differential equation (ODE) model that captures the dynamics of the system and can be used to numerically assess the scalability of this architecture to larger sets of interconnected genes. Finally, with numerical simulations we contrast our negative autoregulation scheme with a cross-activation architecture, which is less scalable and results in slower response times.

Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

PubMed

Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

2016-01-01

Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important.

Implications for the dynamic health of a glacier from comparison of conventional and reference-surface balances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, W.D.; Cox, L.H.; Hock, R.; March, R.S.; Pettit, E.C.

2009-01-01

Conventional and reference-surface mass-balance data from Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers, Alaska, USA, are used to address the questions of how rapidly these glaciers are adjusting (or 'responding') to climate, whether their responses are stable, and whether the glaciers are likely to survive in today's climate. Instability means that a glacier will eventually vanish, or at least become greatly reduced in volume, if the climate stabilizes at its present state. A simple non-linear theory of response is presented for the analysis. The response of Gulkana Glacier is characterized by a timescale of several decades, but its stability and therefore its survival in today's climate are uncertain. Wolverine seems to be responding to climate more slowly, on the timescale of one to several centuries. Its stability is also uncertain, but a slower response time would make it more susceptible to climate changes.

An adaptive robust controller for time delay maglev transportation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Reza Hamidi; Zarabadipour, Hassan; Shahnazi, Reza

2012-12-01

For engineering systems, uncertainties and time delays are two important issues that must be considered in control design. Uncertainties are often encountered in various dynamical systems due to modeling errors, measurement noises, linearization and approximations. Time delays have always been among the most difficult problems encountered in process control. In practical applications of feedback control, time delay arises frequently and can severely degrade closed-loop system performance and in some cases, drives the system to instability. Therefore, stability analysis and controller synthesis for uncertain nonlinear time-delay systems are important both in theory and in practice and many analytical techniques have been developed using delay-dependent Lyapunov function. In the past decade the magnetic and levitation (maglev) transportation system as a new system with high functionality has been the focus of numerous studies. However, maglev transportation systems are highly nonlinear and thus designing controller for those are challenging. The main topic of this paper is to design an adaptive robust controller for maglev transportation systems with time-delay, parametric uncertainties and external disturbances. In this paper, an adaptive robust control (ARC) is designed for this purpose. It should be noted that the adaptive gain is derived from Lyapunov-Krasovskii synthesis method, therefore asymptotic stability is guaranteed.

Design and analysis of a model predictive controller for active queue management.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Chen, Hong; Yang, Xiaoping; Ma, Yan

2012-01-01

Model predictive (MP) control as a novel active queue management (AQM) algorithm in dynamic computer networks is proposed. According to the predicted future queue length in the data buffer, early packets at the router are dropped reasonably by the MPAQM controller so that the queue length reaches the desired value with minimal tracking error. The drop probability is obtained by optimizing the network performance. Further, randomized algorithms are applied to analyze the robustness of MPAQM successfully, and also to provide the stability domain of systems with uncertain network parameters. The performances of MPAQM are evaluated through a series of simulations in NS2. The simulation results show that the MPAQM algorithm outperforms RED, PI, and REM algorithms in terms of stability, disturbance rejection, and robustness. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A game-theoretic method for cross-layer stochastic resilient control design in CPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Jiajun; Feng, Dongqin

2018-03-01

In this paper, the cross-layer security problem of cyber-physical system (CPS) is investigated from the game-theoretic perspective. Physical dynamics of plant is captured by stochastic differential game with cyber-physical influence being considered. The sufficient and necessary condition for the existence of state-feedback equilibrium strategies is given. The attack-defence cyber interactions are formulated by a Stackelberg game intertwined with stochastic differential game in physical layer. The condition such that the Stackelberg equilibrium being unique and the corresponding analytical solutions are both provided. An algorithm is proposed for obtaining hierarchical security strategy by solving coupled games, which ensures the operational normalcy and cyber security of CPS subject to uncertain disturbance and unexpected cyberattacks. Simulation results are given to show the effectiveness and performance of the proposed algorithm.

Flexible and adaptive water systems operations through more informed and dynamic decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

2016-12-01

Timely adapting the operations of water systems to be resilient against rapid changes in both hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing is generally recommended as a part of planning and managing water resources under uncertain futures. A great opportunity to make the operations more flexible and adaptive is offered by the unprecedented amount of information that is becoming available to water system operators, providing a wide range of data at increasingly higher temporal and spatial resolution. Yet, many water systems are still operated using very simple information systems, typically based on basic statistical analysis and the operator's experience. In this work, we discuss the potential offered by incorporating improved information to enhance water systems operation and increase their ability of adapting to different external conditions and resolving potential conflicts across sectors. In particular, we focus on the use of different variables associated to different dynamics of the system (slow and fast) diversely impacting the operating objectives on the short-, medium- and long-term. The multi-purpose operations of the Hoa Binh reservoir in the Red River Basin (Vietnam) is used to demonstrate our approach. Numerical results show that our procedure is able to automatically select the most valuable information for improving the Hoa Binh operations and mitigating the conflict between short-term objectives, i.e. hydropower production and flood control. Moreover, we also successfully identify low-frequency climate information associated to El-Nino Southern Oscillation for improving the performance in terms of long-term objectives, i.e. water supply. Finally, we assess the value of better informing operational decisions for adapting the system operations to changing conditions by considering different climate change projections.

Adaptive Estimation of Multiple Fading Factors for GPS/INS Integrated Navigation Systems.

PubMed

Jiang, Chen; Zhang, Shu-Bi; Zhang, Qiu-Zhao

2017-06-01

The Kalman filter has been widely applied in the field of dynamic navigation and positioning. However, its performance will be degraded in the presence of significant model errors and uncertain interferences. In the literature, the fading filter was proposed to control the influences of the model errors, and the H-infinity filter can be adopted to address the uncertainties by minimizing the estimation error in the worst case. In this paper, a new multiple fading factor, suitable for the Global Positioning System (GPS) and the Inertial Navigation System (INS) integrated navigation system, is proposed based on the optimization of the filter, and a comprehensive filtering algorithm is constructed by integrating the advantages of the H-infinity filter and the proposed multiple fading filter. Measurement data of the GPS/INS integrated navigation system are collected under actual conditions. Stability and robustness of the proposed filtering algorithm are tested with various experiments and contrastive analysis are performed with the measurement data. Results demonstrate that both the filter divergence and the influences of outliers are restrained effectively with the proposed filtering algorithm, and precision of the filtering results are improved simultaneously.

Combined feedforward and model-assisted active disturbance rejection control for non-minimum phase system.

PubMed

Sun, Li; Li, Donghai; Gao, Zhiqiang; Yang, Zhao; Zhao, Shen

2016-09-01

Control of the non-minimum phase (NMP) system is challenging, especially in the presence of modelling uncertainties and external disturbances. To this end, this paper presents a combined feedforward and model-assisted Active Disturbance Rejection Control (MADRC) strategy. Based on the nominal model, the feedforward controller is used to produce a tracking performance that has minimum settling time subject to a prescribed undershoot constraint. On the other hand, the unknown disturbances and uncertain dynamics beyond the nominal model are compensated by MADRC. Since the conventional Extended State Observer (ESO) is not suitable for the NMP system, a model-assisted ESO (MESO) is proposed based on the nominal observable canonical form. The convergence of MESO is proved in time domain. The stability, steady-state characteristics and robustness of the closed-loop system are analyzed in frequency domain. The proposed strategy has only one tuning parameter, i.e., the bandwidth of MESO, which can be readily determined with a prescribed robustness level. Some comparative examples are given to show the efficacy of the proposed method. This paper depicts a promising prospect of the model-assisted ADRC in dealing with complex systems. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust decentralised stabilisation of uncertain large-scale interconnected nonlinear descriptor systems via proportional plus derivative feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jian; Zhang, Qingling; Ren, Junchao; Zhang, Yanhao

2017-10-01

This paper studies the problem of robust stability and stabilisation for uncertain large-scale interconnected nonlinear descriptor systems via proportional plus derivative state feedback or proportional plus derivative output feedback. The basic idea of this work is to use the well-known differential mean value theorem to deal with the nonlinear model such that the considered nonlinear descriptor systems can be transformed into linear parameter varying systems. By using a parameter-dependent Lyapunov function, a decentralised proportional plus derivative state feedback controller and decentralised proportional plus derivative output feedback controller are designed, respectively such that the closed-loop system is quadratically normal and quadratically stable. Finally, a hypersonic vehicle practical simulation example and numerical example are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained in this paper.

Robust nonlinear variable selective control for networked systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Behrooz

2016-10-01

This paper is concerned with the networked control of a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. In this way, Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy modelling is used to extend the previously proposed variable selective control (VSC) methodology to nonlinear systems. This extension is based upon the decomposition of the nonlinear system to a set of fuzzy-blended locally linearised subsystems and further application of the VSC methodology to each subsystem. To increase the applicability of the T-S approach for uncertain nonlinear networked control systems, this study considers the asynchronous premise variables in the plant and the controller, and then introduces a robust stability analysis and control synthesis. The resulting optimal switching-fuzzy controller provides a minimum guaranteed cost on an H2 performance index. Simulation studies on three nonlinear benchmark problems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Toward interactive scheduling systems for managing medical resources.

PubMed

Oddi, A; Cesta, A

2000-10-01

Managers of medico-hospital facilities are facing two general problems when allocating resources to activities: (1) to find an agreement between several and contrasting requirements; (2) to manage dynamic and uncertain situations when constraints suddenly change over time due to medical needs. This paper describes the results of a research aimed at applying constraint-based scheduling techniques to the management of medical resources. A mixed-initiative problem solving approach is adopted in which a user and a decision support system interact to incrementally achieve a satisfactory solution to the problem. A running prototype is described called Interactive Scheduler which offers a set of functionalities for a mixed-initiative interaction to cope with the medical resource management. Interactive Scheduler is endowed with a representation schema used for describing the medical environment, a set of algorithms that address the specific problems of the domain, and an innovative interaction module that offers functionalities for the dialogue between the support system and its user. A particular contribution of this work is the explicit representation of constraint violations, and the definition of scheduling algorithms that aim at minimizing the amount of constraint violations in a solution.

Adaptive neural network decentralized backstepping output-feedback control for nonlinear large-scale systems with time delays.

PubMed

Tong, Shao Cheng; Li, Yong Ming; Zhang, Hua-Guang

2011-07-01

In this paper, two adaptive neural network (NN) decentralized output feedback control approaches are proposed for a class of uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems with immeasurable states and unknown time delays. Using NNs to approximate the unknown nonlinear functions, an NN state observer is designed to estimate the immeasurable states. By combining the adaptive backstepping technique with decentralized control design principle, an adaptive NN decentralized output feedback control approach is developed. In order to overcome the problem of "explosion of complexity" inherent in the proposed control approach, the dynamic surface control (DSC) technique is introduced into the first adaptive NN decentralized control scheme, and a simplified adaptive NN decentralized output feedback DSC approach is developed. It is proved that the two proposed control approaches can guarantee that all the signals of the closed-loop system are semi-globally uniformly ultimately bounded, and the observer errors and the tracking errors converge to a small neighborhood of the origin. Simulation results are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

Error tracking control for underactuated overhead cranes against arbitrary initial payload swing angles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Menghua; Ma, Xin; Rong, Xuewen; Tian, Xincheng; Li, Yibin

2017-02-01

This paper exploits an error tracking control method for overhead crane systems for which the error trajectories for the trolley and the payload swing can be pre-specified. The proposed method does not require that the initial payload swing angle remains zero, whereas this requirement is usually assumed in conventional methods. The significant feature of the proposed method is its superior control performance as well as its strong robustness over different or uncertain rope lengths, payload masses, desired positions, initial payload swing angles, and external disturbances. Owing to the same attenuation behavior, the desired error trajectory for the trolley for each traveling distance is not needed to be reset, which is easy to implement in practical applications. By converting the error tracking overhead crane dynamics to the objective system, we obtain the error tracking control law for arbitrary initial payload swing angles. Lyapunov techniques and LaSalle's invariance theorem are utilized to prove the convergence and stability of the closed-loop system. Simulation and experimental results are illustrated to validate the superior performance of the proposed error tracking control method.

Design and Control of Compliant Tensegrity Robots Through Simulation and Hardware Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caluwaerts, Ken; Despraz, Jeremie; Iscen, Atil; Sabelhaus, Andrew P.; Bruce, Jonathan; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Sunspiral, Vytas

2014-01-01

To better understand the role of tensegrity structures in biological systems and their application to robotics, the Dynamic Tensegrity Robotics Lab at NASA Ames Research Center has developed and validated two different software environments for the analysis, simulation, and design of tensegrity robots. These tools, along with new control methodologies and the modular hardware components developed to validate them, are presented as a system for the design of actuated tensegrity structures. As evidenced from their appearance in many biological systems, tensegrity ("tensile-integrity") structures have unique physical properties which make them ideal for interaction with uncertain environments. Yet these characteristics, such as variable structural compliance, and global multi-path load distribution through the tension network, make design and control of bio-inspired tensegrity robots extremely challenging. This work presents the progress in using these two tools in tackling the design and control challenges. The results of this analysis includes multiple novel control approaches for mobility and terrain interaction of spherical tensegrity structures. The current hardware prototype of a six-bar tensegrity, code-named ReCTeR, is presented in the context of this validation.

Intelligent robust tracking control for a class of uncertain strict-feedback nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Chang, Yeong-Chan

2009-02-01

This paper addresses the problem of designing robust tracking controls for a large class of strict-feedback nonlinear systems involving plant uncertainties and external disturbances. The input and virtual input weighting matrices are perturbed by bounded time-varying uncertainties. An adaptive fuzzy-based (or neural-network-based) dynamic feedback tracking controller will be developed such that all the states and signals of the closed-loop system are bounded and the trajectory tracking error should be as small as possible. First, the adaptive approximators with linearly parameterized models are designed, and a partitioned procedure with respect to the developed adaptive approximators is proposed such that the implementation of the fuzzy (or neural network) basis functions depends only on the state variables but does not depend on the tuning approximation parameters. Furthermore, we extend to design the nonlinearly parameterized adaptive approximators. Consequently, the intelligent robust tracking control schemes developed in this paper possess the properties of computational simplicity and easy implementation. Finally, simulation examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control algorithms.

Neural robust stabilization via event-triggering mechanism and adaptive learning technique.

PubMed

Wang, Ding; Liu, Derong

2018-06-01

The robust control synthesis of continuous-time nonlinear systems with uncertain term is investigated via event-triggering mechanism and adaptive critic learning technique. We mainly focus on combining the event-triggering mechanism with adaptive critic designs, so as to solve the nonlinear robust control problem. This can not only make better use of computation and communication resources, but also conduct controller design from the view of intelligent optimization. Through theoretical analysis, the nonlinear robust stabilization can be achieved by obtaining an event-triggered optimal control law of the nominal system with a newly defined cost function and a certain triggering condition. The adaptive critic technique is employed to facilitate the event-triggered control design, where a neural network is introduced as an approximator of the learning phase. The performance of the event-triggered robust control scheme is validated via simulation studies and comparisons. The present method extends the application domain of both event-triggered control and adaptive critic control to nonlinear systems possessing dynamical uncertainties. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Group members differ in relative prototypicality: Effects on the individual and the group.

PubMed

Hogg, Michael A

2016-01-01

All groups are differentiated into more or less group-prototypical members. Central members readily influence and lead the group, and they define its identity. Peripheral members can feel voiceless and marginalized, as well as uncertain about their membership status - they may engage in extreme behaviors to try to win acceptance. These relative prototypicality dynamics sometimes benefit group performance but sometimes compromise performance.

Adaptive walking of a quadrupedal robot based on layered biological reflexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiuli; Mingcheng, E.; Zeng, Xiangyu; Zheng, Haojun

2012-07-01

A multiple-legged robot is traditionally controlled by using its dynamic model. But the dynamic-model-based approach fails to acquire satisfactory performances when the robot faces rough terrains and unknown environments. Referring animals' neural control mechanisms, a control model is built for a quadruped robot walking adaptively. The basic rhythmic motion of the robot is controlled by a well-designed rhythmic motion controller(RMC) comprising a central pattern generator(CPG) for hip joints and a rhythmic coupler (RC) for knee joints. CPG and RC have relationships of motion-mapping and rhythmic couple. Multiple sensory-motor models, abstracted from the neural reflexes of a cat, are employed. These reflex models are organized and thus interact with the CPG in three layers, to meet different requirements of complexity and response time to the tasks. On the basis of the RMC and layered biological reflexes, a quadruped robot is constructed, which can clear obstacles and walk uphill and downhill autonomously, and make a turn voluntarily in uncertain environments, interacting with the environment in a way similar to that of an animal. The paper provides a biologically inspired architecture, with which a robot can walk adaptively in uncertain environments in a simple and effective way, and achieve better performances.

Optimal estimation and scheduling in aquifer management using the rapid feedback control method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbanidehno, Hojat; Kokkinaki, Amalia; Kitanidis, Peter K.; Darve, Eric

2017-12-01

Management of water resources systems often involves a large number of parameters, as in the case of large, spatially heterogeneous aquifers, and a large number of "noisy" observations, as in the case of pressure observation in wells. Optimizing the operation of such systems requires both searching among many possible solutions and utilizing new information as it becomes available. However, the computational cost of this task increases rapidly with the size of the problem to the extent that textbook optimization methods are practically impossible to apply. In this paper, we present a new computationally efficient technique as a practical alternative for optimally operating large-scale dynamical systems. The proposed method, which we term Rapid Feedback Controller (RFC), provides a practical approach for combined monitoring, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and optimal control for linear and nonlinear systems with a quadratic cost function. For illustration, we consider the case of a weakly nonlinear uncertain dynamical system with a quadratic objective function, specifically a two-dimensional heterogeneous aquifer management problem. To validate our method, we compare our results with the linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) method, which is the basic approach for feedback control. We show that the computational cost of the RFC scales only linearly with the number of unknowns, a great improvement compared to the basic LQG control with a computational cost that scales quadratically. We demonstrate that the RFC method can obtain the optimal control values at a greatly reduced computational cost compared to the conventional LQG algorithm with small and controllable losses in the accuracy of the state and parameter estimation.

Regional robust stabilisation and domain-of-attraction estimation for MIMO uncertain nonlinear systems with input saturation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizi, S.; Torres, L. A. B.; Palhares, R. M.

2018-01-01

The regional robust stabilisation by means of linear time-invariant state feedback control for a class of uncertain MIMO nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties and control input saturation is investigated. The nonlinear systems are described in a differential algebraic representation and the regional stability is handled considering the largest ellipsoidal domain-of-attraction (DOA) inside a given polytopic region in the state space. A novel set of sufficient Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) conditions with new auxiliary decision variables are developed aiming to design less conservative linear state feedback controllers with corresponding larger DOAs, by considering the polytopic description of the saturated inputs. A few examples are presented showing favourable comparisons with recently published similar control design methodologies.

Decentralized Adaptive Control of Systems with Uncertain Interconnections, Plant-Model Mismatch and Actuator Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patre, Parag; Joshi, Suresh M.

2011-01-01

Decentralized adaptive control is considered for systems consisting of multiple interconnected subsystems. It is assumed that each subsystem s parameters are uncertain and the interconnection parameters are not known. In addition, mismatch can exist between each subsystem and its reference model. A strictly decentralized adaptive control scheme is developed, wherein each subsystem has access only to its own state but has the knowledge of all reference model states. The mismatch is estimated online for each subsystem and the mismatch estimates are used to adaptively modify the corresponding reference models. The adaptive control scheme is extended to the case with actuator failures in addition to mismatch.

Research and application of a hybrid model based on dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation for establishing air quality forecasting and early warning system: A case study in China.

PubMed

Xu, Yunzhen; Du, Pei; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-04-01

As the atmospheric environment pollution has been becoming more and more serious in China, it is highly desirable to develop a scientific and effective early warning system that plays a great significant role in analyzing and monitoring air quality. However, establishing a robust early warning system for warning the public in advance and ameliorating air quality is not only an extremely challenging task but also a public concerned problem for human health. Most previous studies are focused on improving the prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significance of uncertainty information and comprehensive evaluation concerning air pollutants. Therefore, in this paper a novel robust early warning system was successfully developed, which consists of three modules: evaluation module, forecasting module and characteristics estimating module. In this system, a new dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed and applied to determine air quality levels and primary pollutants, which can be regarded as the research objectives; Moreover, to further mine and analyze the characteristics of air pollutants, four different distribution functions and interval forecasting method are also employed that can not only provide predictive range, confidence level and the other uncertain information of the pollutants future values, but also assist decision-makers in reducing and controlling the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. Case studies utilizing hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 data collected from Tianjin and Shanghai in China are applied as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. Experimental results obviously indicated that the developed novel early warning system is much suitable for analyzing and monitoring air pollution, which can also add a novel viable option for decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametric optimal control of uncertain systems under an optimistic value criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Zhu, Yuanguo

2018-01-01

It is well known that the optimal control of a linear quadratic model is characterized by the solution of a Riccati differential equation. In many cases, the corresponding Riccati differential equation cannot be solved exactly such that the optimal feedback control may be a complex time-oriented function. In this article, a parametric optimal control problem of an uncertain linear quadratic model under an optimistic value criterion is considered for simplifying the expression of optimal control. Based on the equation of optimality for the uncertain optimal control problem, an approximation method is presented to solve it. As an application, a two-spool turbofan engine optimal control problem is given to show the utility of the proposed model and the efficiency of the presented approximation method.

Tsallis’ non-extensive free energy as a subjective value of an uncertain reward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Taiki

2009-03-01

Recent studies in neuroeconomics and econophysics revealed the importance of reward expectation in decision under uncertainty. Behavioral neuroeconomic studies have proposed that the unpredictability and the probability of an uncertain reward are distinctly encoded as entropy and a distorted probability weight, respectively, in the separate neural systems. However, previous behavioral economic and decision-theoretic models could not quantify reward-seeking and uncertainty aversion in a theoretically consistent manner. In this paper, we have: (i) proposed that generalized Helmholtz free energy in Tsallis’ non-extensive thermostatistics can be utilized to quantify a perceived value of an uncertain reward, and (ii) empirically examined the explanatory powers of the models. Future study directions in neuroeconomics and econophysics by utilizing the Tsallis’ free energy model are discussed.

Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

2013-01-01

Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

Optimal second order sliding mode control for linear uncertain systems.

PubMed

Das, Madhulika; Mahanta, Chitralekha

2014-11-01

In this paper an optimal second order sliding mode controller (OSOSMC) is proposed to track a linear uncertain system. The optimal controller based on the linear quadratic regulator method is designed for the nominal system. An integral sliding mode controller is combined with the optimal controller to ensure robustness of the linear system which is affected by parametric uncertainties and external disturbances. To achieve finite time convergence of the sliding mode, a nonsingular terminal sliding surface is added with the integral sliding surface giving rise to a second order sliding mode controller. The main advantage of the proposed OSOSMC is that the control input is substantially reduced and it becomes chattering free. Simulation results confirm superiority of the proposed OSOSMC over some existing. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive sensor-fault tolerant control for a class of multivariable uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Khebbache, Hicham; Tadjine, Mohamed; Labiod, Salim; Boulkroune, Abdesselem

2015-03-01

This paper deals with the active fault tolerant control (AFTC) problem for a class of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) uncertain nonlinear systems subject to sensor faults and external disturbances. The proposed AFTC method can tolerate three additive (bias, drift and loss of accuracy) and one multiplicative (loss of effectiveness) sensor faults. By employing backstepping technique, a novel adaptive backstepping-based AFTC scheme is developed using the fact that sensor faults and system uncertainties (including external disturbances and unexpected nonlinear functions caused by sensor faults) can be on-line estimated and compensated via robust adaptive schemes. The stability analysis of the closed-loop system is rigorously proven using a Lyapunov approach. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is illustrated by two simulation examples. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observer-Based Adaptive NN Control for a Class of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems With Nonsymmetric Input Saturation.

PubMed

Yong-Feng Gao; Xi-Ming Sun; Changyun Wen; Wei Wang

2017-07-01

This paper is concerned with the problem of adaptive tracking control for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with nonsymmetric input saturation and immeasurable states. The radial basis function of neural network (NN) is employed to approximate unknown functions, and an NN state observer is designed to estimate the immeasurable states. To analyze the effect of input saturation, an auxiliary system is employed. By the aid of adaptive backstepping technique, an adaptive tracking control approach is developed. Under the proposed adaptive tracking controller, the boundedness of all the signals in the closed-loop system is achieved. Moreover, distinct from most of the existing references, the tracking error can be bounded by an explicit function of design parameters and saturation input error. Finally, an example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.

2014-12-01

Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

Particle filter based hybrid prognostics for health monitoring of uncertain systems in bond graph framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Mayank Shekhar; Dauphin-Tanguy, G.; Ould-Bouamama, B.

2016-06-01

The paper's main objective is to address the problem of health monitoring of system parameters in Bond Graph (BG) modeling framework, by exploiting its structural and causal properties. The system in feedback control loop is considered uncertain globally. Parametric uncertainty is modeled in interval form. The system parameter is undergoing degradation (prognostic candidate) and its degradation model is assumed to be known a priori. The detection of degradation commencement is done in a passive manner which involves interval valued robust adaptive thresholds over the nominal part of the uncertain BG-derived interval valued analytical redundancy relations (I-ARRs). The latter forms an efficient diagnostic module. The prognostics problem is cast as joint state-parameter estimation problem, a hybrid prognostic approach, wherein the fault model is constructed by considering the statistical degradation model of the system parameter (prognostic candidate). The observation equation is constructed from nominal part of the I-ARR. Using particle filter (PF) algorithms; the estimation of state of health (state of prognostic candidate) and associated hidden time-varying degradation progression parameters is achieved in probabilistic terms. A simplified variance adaptation scheme is proposed. Associated uncertainties which arise out of noisy measurements, parametric degradation process, environmental conditions etc. are effectively managed by PF. This allows the production of effective predictions of the remaining useful life of the prognostic candidate with suitable confidence bounds. The effectiveness of the novel methodology is demonstrated through simulations and experiments on a mechatronic system.

Project Delivery System Mode Decision Based on Uncertain AHP and Fuzzy Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaishan, Liu; Huimin, Li

2017-12-01

The project delivery system mode determines the contract pricing type, project management mode and the risk allocation among all participants. Different project delivery system modes have different characteristics and applicable scope. For the owners, the selection of the delivery mode is the key point to decide whether the project can achieve the expected benefits, it relates to the success or failure of project construction. Under the precondition of comprehensively considering the influence factors of the delivery mode, the model of project delivery system mode decision was set up on the basis of uncertain AHP and fuzzy sets, which can well consider the uncertainty and fuzziness when conducting the index evaluation and weight confirmation, so as to rapidly and effectively identify the most suitable delivery mode according to project characteristics. The effectiveness of the model has been verified via the actual case analysis in order to provide reference for the construction project delivery system mode.

Fuzzy Adaptive Control Design and Discretization for a Class of Nonlinear Uncertain Systems.

PubMed

Zhao, Xudong; Shi, Peng; Zheng, Xiaolong

2016-06-01

In this paper, tracking control problems are investigated for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems in lower triangular form. First, a state-feedback controller is designed by using adaptive backstepping technique and the universal approximation ability of fuzzy logic systems. During the design procedure, a developed method with less computation is proposed by constructing one maximum adaptive parameter. Furthermore, adaptive controllers with nonsymmetric dead-zone are also designed for the systems. Then, a sampled-data control scheme is presented to discretize the obtained continuous-time controller by using the forward Euler method. It is shown that both proposed continuous and discrete controllers can ensure that the system output tracks the target signal with a small bounded error and the other closed-loop signals remain bounded. Two simulation examples are presented to verify the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed new design techniques.

Strategic Positioning of United States Air Force Civil Engineer Contingency Equipment within the Supply Chain

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-27

discussed. Background In a dynamic world full of uncertain threats, the United States military is constantly required to evolve and enhance its...capabilities to effectively defend the nation. One of the military capabilities requiring continuous improvement to ensure pursuit of American...force the right personnel, equipment, and supplies in the right place, at the right time, and in the right quantity, across the full range of military

A CPS Based Optimal Operational Control System for Fused Magnesium Furnace

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chai, Tian-you; Wu, Zhi-wei; Wang, Hong

Fused magnesia smelting for fused magnesium furnace (FMF) is an energy intensive process with high temperature and comprehensive complexities. Its operational index namely energy consumption per ton (ECPT) is defined as the consumed electrical energy per ton of acceptable quality and is difficult to measure online. Moreover, the dynamics of ECPT cannot be precisely modelled mathematically. The model parameters of the three-phase currents of the electrodes such as the molten pool level, its variation rate and resistance are uncertain and nonlinear functions of the changes in both the smelting process and the raw materials composition. In this paper, an integratedmore » optimal operational control algorithm proposed is composed of a current set-point control, a current switching control and a self-optimized tuning mechanism. The tight conjoining of and coordination between the computational resources including the integrated optimal operational control, embedded software, industrial cloud, wireless communication and the physical resources of FMF constitutes a cyber-physical system (CPS) based embedded optimal operational control system. Successful application of this system has been made for a production line with ten fused magnesium furnaces in a factory in China, leading to a significant reduced ECPT.« less

Near Optimal Event-Triggered Control of Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems Using Neurodynamic Programming.

PubMed

Sahoo, Avimanyu; Xu, Hao; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2016-09-01

This paper presents an event-triggered near optimal control of uncertain nonlinear discrete-time systems. Event-driven neurodynamic programming (NDP) is utilized to design the control policy. A neural network (NN)-based identifier, with event-based state and input vectors, is utilized to learn the system dynamics. An actor-critic framework is used to learn the cost function and the optimal control input. The NN weights of the identifier, the critic, and the actor NNs are tuned aperiodically once every triggered instant. An adaptive event-trigger condition to decide the trigger instants is derived. Thus, a suitable number of events are generated to ensure a desired accuracy of approximation. A near optimal performance is achieved without using value and/or policy iterations. A detailed analysis of nontrivial inter-event times with an explicit formula to show the reduction in computation is also derived. The Lyapunov technique is used in conjunction with the event-trigger condition to guarantee the ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system. The simulation results are included to verify the performance of the controller. The net result is the development of event-driven NDP.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Improved methods in neural network-based adaptive output feedback control, with applications to flight control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Nakwan

Utilizing the universal approximation property of neural networks, we develop several novel approaches to neural network-based adaptive output feedback control of nonlinear systems, and illustrate these approaches for several flight control applications. In particular, we address the problem of non-affine systems and eliminate the fixed point assumption present in earlier work. All of the stability proofs are carried out in a form that eliminates an algebraic loop in the neural network implementation. An approximate input/output feedback linearizing controller is augmented with a neural network using input/output sequences of the uncertain system. These approaches permit adaptation to both parametric uncertainty and unmodeled dynamics. All physical systems also have control position and rate limits, which may either deteriorate performance or cause instability for a sufficiently high control bandwidth. Here we apply a method for protecting an adaptive process from the effects of input saturation and time delays, known as "pseudo control hedging". This method was originally developed for the state feedback case, and we provide a stability analysis that extends its domain of applicability to the case of output feedback. The approach is illustrated by the design of a pitch-attitude flight control system for a linearized model of an R-50 experimental helicopter, and by the design of a pitch-rate control system for a 58-state model of a flexible aircraft consisting of rigid body dynamics coupled with actuator and flexible modes. A new approach to augmentation of an existing linear controller is introduced. It is especially useful when there is limited information concerning the plant model, and the existing controller. The approach is applied to the design of an adaptive autopilot for a guided munition. Design of a neural network adaptive control that ensures asymptotically stable tracking performance is also addressed.

Real time health monitoring and control system methodology for flexible space structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaram, Sanjay

This dissertation is concerned with the Near Real-time Autonomous Health Monitoring of Flexible Space Structures. The dynamics of multi-body flexible systems is uncertain due to factors such as high non-linearity, consideration of higher modal frequencies, high dimensionality, multiple inputs and outputs, operational constraints, as well as unexpected failures of sensors and/or actuators. Hence a systematic framework of developing a high fidelity, dynamic model of a flexible structural system needs to be understood. The fault detection mechanism that will be an integrated part of an autonomous health monitoring system comprises the detection of abnormalities in the sensors and/or actuators and correcting these detected faults (if possible). Applying the robust control law and the robust measures that are capable of detecting and recovering/replacing the actuators rectifies the actuator faults. The fault tolerant concept applied to the sensors will be in the form of an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The EKF is going to weigh the information coming from multiple sensors (redundant sensors used to measure the same information) and automatically identify the faulty sensors and weigh the best estimate from the remaining sensors. The mechanization is comprised of instrumenting flexible deployable panels (solar array) with multiple angular position and rate sensors connected to the data acquisition system. The sensors will give position and rate information of the solar panel in all three axes (i.e. roll, pitch and yaw). The position data corresponds to the steady state response and the rate data will give better insight on the transient response of the system. This is a critical factor for real-time autonomous health monitoring. MATLAB (and/or C++) software will be used for high fidelity modeling and fault tolerant mechanism.

A Black-Scholes Approach to Satisfying the Demand in a Failure-Prone Manufacturing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chavez-Fuentes, Jorge R.; Gonzalex, Oscar R.; Gray, W. Steven

2007-01-01

The goal of this paper is to use a financial model and a hedging strategy in a systems application. In particular, the classical Black-Scholes model, which was developed in 1973 to find the fair price of a financial contract, is adapted to satisfy an uncertain demand in a manufacturing system when one of two production machines is unreliable. This financial model together with a hedging strategy are used to develop a closed formula for the production strategies of each machine. The strategy guarantees that the uncertain demand will be met in probability at the final time of the production process. It is assumed that the production efficiency of the unreliable machine can be modeled as a continuous-time stochastic process. Two simple examples illustrate the result.

Cooperative learning neural network output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear multi-agent systems under directed topologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Wang, D.; Peng, Z. H.

2017-09-01

Without assuming that the communication topologies among the neural network (NN) weights are to be undirected and the states of each agent are measurable, the cooperative learning NN output feedback control is addressed for uncertain nonlinear multi-agent systems with identical structures in strict-feedback form. By establishing directed communication topologies among NN weights to share their learned knowledge, NNs with cooperative learning laws are employed to identify the uncertainties. By designing NN-based κ-filter observers to estimate the unmeasurable states, a new cooperative learning output feedback control scheme is proposed to guarantee that the system outputs can track nonidentical reference signals with bounded tracking errors. A simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

Hybrid Cubature Kalman filtering for identifying nonlinear models from sampled recording: Estimation of neuronal dynamics.

PubMed

Madi, Mahmoud K; Karameh, Fadi N

2017-01-01

Kalman filtering methods have long been regarded as efficient adaptive Bayesian techniques for estimating hidden states in models of linear dynamical systems under Gaussian uncertainty. Recent advents of the Cubature Kalman filter (CKF) have extended this efficient estimation property to nonlinear systems, and also to hybrid nonlinear problems where by the processes are continuous and the observations are discrete (continuous-discrete CD-CKF). Employing CKF techniques, therefore, carries high promise for modeling many biological phenomena where the underlying processes exhibit inherently nonlinear, continuous, and noisy dynamics and the associated measurements are uncertain and time-sampled. This paper investigates the performance of cubature filtering (CKF and CD-CKF) in two flagship problems arising in the field of neuroscience upon relating brain functionality to aggregate neurophysiological recordings: (i) estimation of the firing dynamics and the neural circuit model parameters from electric potentials (EP) observations, and (ii) estimation of the hemodynamic model parameters and the underlying neural drive from BOLD (fMRI) signals. First, in simulated neural circuit models, estimation accuracy was investigated under varying levels of observation noise (SNR), process noise structures, and observation sampling intervals (dt). When compared to the CKF, the CD-CKF consistently exhibited better accuracy for a given SNR, sharp accuracy increase with higher SNR, and persistent error reduction with smaller dt. Remarkably, CD-CKF accuracy shows only a mild deterioration for non-Gaussian process noise, specifically with Poisson noise, a commonly assumed form of background fluctuations in neuronal systems. Second, in simulated hemodynamic models, parametric estimates were consistently improved under CD-CKF. Critically, time-localization of the underlying neural drive, a determinant factor in fMRI-based functional connectivity studies, was significantly more accurate under CD-CKF. In conclusion, and with the CKF recently benchmarked against other advanced Bayesian techniques, the CD-CKF framework could provide significant gains in robustness and accuracy when estimating a variety of biological phenomena models where the underlying process dynamics unfold at time scales faster than those seen in collected measurements.

Hybrid Cubature Kalman filtering for identifying nonlinear models from sampled recording: Estimation of neuronal dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Kalman filtering methods have long been regarded as efficient adaptive Bayesian techniques for estimating hidden states in models of linear dynamical systems under Gaussian uncertainty. Recent advents of the Cubature Kalman filter (CKF) have extended this efficient estimation property to nonlinear systems, and also to hybrid nonlinear problems where by the processes are continuous and the observations are discrete (continuous-discrete CD-CKF). Employing CKF techniques, therefore, carries high promise for modeling many biological phenomena where the underlying processes exhibit inherently nonlinear, continuous, and noisy dynamics and the associated measurements are uncertain and time-sampled. This paper investigates the performance of cubature filtering (CKF and CD-CKF) in two flagship problems arising in the field of neuroscience upon relating brain functionality to aggregate neurophysiological recordings: (i) estimation of the firing dynamics and the neural circuit model parameters from electric potentials (EP) observations, and (ii) estimation of the hemodynamic model parameters and the underlying neural drive from BOLD (fMRI) signals. First, in simulated neural circuit models, estimation accuracy was investigated under varying levels of observation noise (SNR), process noise structures, and observation sampling intervals (dt). When compared to the CKF, the CD-CKF consistently exhibited better accuracy for a given SNR, sharp accuracy increase with higher SNR, and persistent error reduction with smaller dt. Remarkably, CD-CKF accuracy shows only a mild deterioration for non-Gaussian process noise, specifically with Poisson noise, a commonly assumed form of background fluctuations in neuronal systems. Second, in simulated hemodynamic models, parametric estimates were consistently improved under CD-CKF. Critically, time-localization of the underlying neural drive, a determinant factor in fMRI-based functional connectivity studies, was significantly more accurate under CD-CKF. In conclusion, and with the CKF recently benchmarked against other advanced Bayesian techniques, the CD-CKF framework could provide significant gains in robustness and accuracy when estimating a variety of biological phenomena models where the underlying process dynamics unfold at time scales faster than those seen in collected measurements. PMID:28727850

Rapid Dye Regeneration Mechanism of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells.

PubMed

Jeon, Jiwon; Park, Young Choon; Han, Sang Soo; Goddard, William A; Lee, Yoon Sup; Kim, Hyungjun

2014-12-18

During the light-harvesting process of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs), the hole localized on the dye after the charge separation yields an oxidized dye, D(+). The fast regeneration of D(+) using the redox pair (typically the I(-)/I3(-) couple) is critical for the efficient DSSCs. However, the kinetic processes of dye regeneration remain uncertain, still promoting vigorous debates. Here, we use molecular dynamics simulations to determine that the inner-sphere electron-transfer pathway provides a rapid dye regeneration route of ∼4 ps, where penetration of I(-) next to D(+) enables an immediate electron transfer, forming a kinetic barrier. This explains the recently reported ultrafast dye regeneration rate of a few picoseconds determined experimentally. We expect that our MD based comprehensive understanding of the dye regeneration mechanism will provide a helpful guideline in designing TiO2-dye-electrolyte interfacial systems for better performing DSSCs.

A μ analysis-based, controller-synthesis framework for robust bioinspired visual navigation in less-structured environments.

PubMed

Keshavan, J; Gremillion, G; Escobar-Alvarez, H; Humbert, J S

2014-06-01

Safe, autonomous navigation by aerial microsystems in less-structured environments is a difficult challenge to overcome with current technology. This paper presents a novel visual-navigation approach that combines bioinspired wide-field processing of optic flow information with control-theoretic tools for synthesis of closed loop systems, resulting in robustness and performance guarantees. Structured singular value analysis is used to synthesize a dynamic controller that provides good tracking performance in uncertain environments without resorting to explicit pose estimation or extraction of a detailed environmental depth map. Experimental results with a quadrotor demonstrate the vehicle's robust obstacle-avoidance behaviour in a straight line corridor, an S-shaped corridor and a corridor with obstacles distributed in the vehicle's path. The computational efficiency and simplicity of the current approach offers a promising alternative to satisfying the payload, power and bandwidth constraints imposed by aerial microsystems.

Robust Temperature Control of a Thermoelectric Cooler via μ -Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürkçü, Burak; Kasnakoğlu, Coşku

2018-02-01

In this work robust temperature control of a thermoelectric cooler (TEC) via μ -synthesis is studied. An uncertain dynamical model for the TEC that is suitable for robust control methods is derived. The model captures variations in operating point due to current, load and temperature changes. A temperature controller is designed utilizing μ -synthesis, a powerful method guaranteeing robust stability and performance. For comparison two well-known control methods, namely proportional-integral-derivative (PID) and internal model control (IMC), are also realized to benchmark the proposed approach. It is observed that the stability and performance on the nominal model are satisfactory for all cases. On the other hand, under perturbations the responses of PID and IMC deteriorate and even become unstable. In contrast, the μ -synthesis controller succeeds in keeping system stability and achieving good performance under all perturbations within the operating range, while at the same time providing good disturbance rejection.

Unusual satellite data: A black hole?. [International Ultraviolet Explorer observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Data obtained by the NASA-launched European Space Agency's International Ultraviolet Explorer satellite suggests the possibility of a massive black hole at the center of some globular clusters (star groups) in our galaxy. Six of these clusters, three of them X-ray sources, were closely examined. Onboard short wavelength UV instrumentation penetrated the background denseness of the clusters 15,000 light years away where radiation, probably from a group of 10 to 20 bright blue stars orbiting the core, was observed. The stars may well be orbiting a massive black hole the size of 1,000 solar systems. The existence of the black hole is uncertain. The dynamics of the stars must be studied first to determine how they rotate in relation to the center of the million-star cluster. This may better indicate what provides the necessary gravitational pull that holds them in orbit.

Optimally robust redundancy relations for failure detection in uncertain systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lou, X.-C.; Willsky, A. S.; Verghese, G. C.

1986-01-01

All failure detection methods are based, either explicitly or implicitly, on the use of redundancy, i.e. on (possibly dynamic) relations among the measured variables. The robustness of the failure detection process consequently depends to a great degree on the reliability of the redundancy relations, which in turn is affected by the inevitable presence of model uncertainties. In this paper the problem of determining redundancy relations that are optimally robust is addressed in a sense that includes several major issues of importance in practical failure detection and that provides a significant amount of intuition concerning the geometry of robust failure detection. A procedure is given involving the construction of a single matrix and its singular value decomposition for the determination of a complete sequence of redundancy relations, ordered in terms of their level of robustness. This procedure also provides the basis for comparing levels of robustness in redundancy provided by different sets of sensors.

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

The viscosity and temperature dependence of 1H T1-NMRD of the Gd(H 2O) 83+ complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xiangzhi; Westlund, Per-Olof

2005-11-01

Water proton T1-NMRD profiles of the Gd(H 2O) 83+ complex have been recorded at three temperatures and at four concentrations of glycerol. The analysis is performed using both the generalized Solomon-Bloembergen-Morgan (GSBM) theory [J. Magn. Reson. 167(2004), 147-160], and the stochastic Liouville approach (SLA). The GSBM approach uses a two processes dynamic model of the zero-field splitting (ZFS) correlation function whereas SLA uses a single process model. Both models reproduce the proton T1-NMRD profiles well. However, the model parameters extracted from the two analyses, yield different ESR X-band spectra which moreover do not reproduce the experimental ESR spectra. It is shown that the analyses of the proton T1-NMRD profiles recorded for a solution Gd(H 2O) 83+ ions are relatively insensitive to the slow modulation part of dynamic model of the ZFS interaction correlation function. The description of the electron spin system results in a very small static ZFS, while recent ESR lineshape analysis indicates that the contribution from the static ZFS is important. Analysis of proton T1-NMRD profiles of Gd(H 2O) 83+ complex do result in a description of the electron spin system but these microscopic parameters are uncertain unless they also are tested in a ESR-lineshape analysis.

A robust H∞ control-based hierarchical mode transition control system for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chao; Jiao, Xiaohong; Li, Liang; Zhang, Yuanbo; Chen, Zheng

2018-01-01

To realize a fast and smooth operating mode transition process from electric driving mode to engine-on driving mode, this paper presents a novel robust hierarchical mode transition control method for a plug-in hybrid electric bus (PHEB) with pre-transmission parallel hybrid powertrain. Firstly, the mode transition process is divided into five stages to clearly describe the powertrain dynamics. Based on the dynamics models of powertrain and clutch actuating mechanism, a hierarchical control structure including two robust H∞ controllers in both upper layer and lower layer is proposed. In upper layer, the demand clutch torque can be calculated by a robust H∞controller considering the clutch engaging time and the vehicle jerk. While in lower layer a robust tracking controller with L2-gain is designed to perform the accurate position tracking control, especially when the parameters uncertainties and external disturbance occur in the clutch actuating mechanism. Simulation and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test are carried out in a traditional driving condition of PHEB. Results show that the proposed hierarchical control approach can obtain the good control performance: mode transition time is greatly reduced with the acceptable jerk. Meanwhile, the designed control system shows the obvious robustness with the uncertain parameters and disturbance. Therefore, the proposed approach may offer a theoretical reference for the actual vehicle controller.

Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

2014-12-01

Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

Introduced and invasive species in novel rangeland ecosystems: friends or foes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Ludwig, John A.; Wilcox, Bradford P.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Dean, W. Richard J.; Hoffmann, Benjamin D.; Milton, Sue J.

2012-01-01

Globally, new combinations of introduced and native plant and animal species have changed rangelands into novel ecosystems. Whereas many rangeland stakeholders (people who use or have an interest in rangelands) view intentional species introductions to improve forage and control erosion as beneficial, others focus on unintended costs, such as increased fire risk, loss of rangeland biodiversity, and threats to conservation efforts, specifically in nature reserves and parks. These conflicting views challenge all rangeland stakeholders, especially those making decisions on how best to manage novel ecosystems. To formulate a conceptual framework for decision making, we examined a wide range of novel ecosystems, created by intentional and unintentional introductions of nonnative species and land-use–facilitated spread of native ones. This framework simply divides decision making into two types: 1) straightforward–certain, and 2) complex–uncertain. We argue that management decisions to retain novel ecosystems are certain when goods and services provided by the system far outweigh the costs of restoration, for example in the case of intensively managed Cenchrus pastures. Decisions to return novel ecosystems to natural systems are also certain when the value of the system is low and restoration is easy and inexpensive as in the case of biocontrol of Opuntia infestations. In contrast, decisions whether to retain or restore novel ecosystems become complex and uncertain in cases where benefits are low and costs of control are high as, for example, in the case of stopping the expansion of Prosopis and Juniperus into semiarid rangelands. Decisions to retain or restore novel ecosystems are also complex and uncertain when, for example, nonnative Eucalyptus trees expand along natural streams, negatively affecting biodiversity, but also providing timber and honey. When decision making is complex and uncertain, we suggest that rangeland managers utilize cost–benefit analyses and hold stakeholder workshops to resolve conflicts.

Phenotypic switching of populations of cells in a stochastic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufton, Peter G.; Lin, Yen Ting; Galla, Tobias

2018-02-01

In biology phenotypic switching is a common bet-hedging strategy in the face of uncertain environmental conditions. Existing mathematical models often focus on periodically changing environments to determine the optimal phenotypic response. We focus on the case in which the environment switches randomly between discrete states. Starting from an individual-based model we derive stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics, and obtain analytical expressions for the mean instantaneous growth rates based on the theory of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. We show that optimal phenotypic responses are non-trivial for slow and intermediate environmental processes, and systematically compare the cases of periodic and random environments. The best response to random switching is more likely to be heterogeneity than in the case of deterministic periodic environments, net growth rates tend to be higher under stochastic environmental dynamics. The combined system of environment and population of cells can be interpreted as host-pathogen interaction, in which the host tries to choose environmental switching so as to minimise growth of the pathogen, and in which the pathogen employs a phenotypic switching optimised to increase its growth rate. We discuss the existence of Nash-like mutual best-response scenarios for such host-pathogen games.

Learning in Noise: Dynamic Decision-Making in a Variable Environment

PubMed Central

Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.

2009-01-01

In engineering systems, noise is a curse, obscuring important signals and increasing the uncertainty associated with measurement. However, the negative effects of noise and uncertainty are not universal. In this paper, we examine how people learn sequential control strategies given different sources and amounts of feedback variability. In particular, we consider people’s behavior in a task where short- and long-term rewards are placed in conflict (i.e., the best option in the short-term is worst in the long-term). Consistent with a model based on reinforcement learning principles (Gureckis & Love, in press), we find that learners differentially weight information predictive of the current task state. In particular, when cues that signal state are noisy and uncertain, we find that participants’ ability to identify an optimal strategy is strongly impaired relative to equivalent amounts of uncertainty that obscure the rewards/valuations of those states. In other situations, we find that noise and uncertainty in reward signals may paradoxically improve performance by encouraging exploration. Our results demonstrate how experimentally-manipulated task variability can be used to test predictions about the mechanisms that learners engage in dynamic decision making tasks. PMID:20161328

Angle and Context Free Grammar Based Precarious Node Detection and Secure Data Transmission in MANETs.

PubMed

Veerasamy, Anitha; Madane, Srinivasa Rao; Sivakumar, K; Sivaraman, Audithan

2016-01-01

Growing attractiveness of Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs), its features, and usage has led to the launching of threats and attacks to bring negative consequences in the society. The typical features of MANETs, especially with dynamic topology and open wireless medium, may leave MANETs vulnerable. Trust management using uncertain reasoning scheme has previously attempted to solve this problem. However, it produces additional overhead while securing the network. Hence, a Location and Trust-based secure communication scheme (L&TS) is proposed to overcome this limitation. Since the design securing requires more than two data algorithms, the cost of the system goes up. Another mechanism proposed in this paper, Angle and Context Free Grammar (ACFG) based precarious node elimination and secure communication in MANETs, intends to secure data transmission and detect precarious nodes in a MANET at a comparatively lower cost. The Elliptic Curve function is used to isolate a malicious node, thereby incorporating secure data transfer. Simulation results show that the dynamic estimation of the metrics improves throughput by 26% in L&TS when compared to the TMUR. ACFG achieves 33% and 51% throughput increase when compared to L&TS and TMUR mechanisms, respectively.

Aeroservoelastic Model Validation and Test Data Analysis of the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.; Prazenica, Richard J.

2003-01-01

Model validation and flight test data analysis require careful consideration of the effects of uncertainty, noise, and nonlinearity. Uncertainty prevails in the data analysis techniques and results in a composite model uncertainty from unmodeled dynamics, assumptions and mechanics of the estimation procedures, noise, and nonlinearity. A fundamental requirement for reliable and robust model development is an attempt to account for each of these sources of error, in particular, for model validation, robust stability prediction, and flight control system development. This paper is concerned with data processing procedures for uncertainty reduction in model validation for stability estimation and nonlinear identification. F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) aircraft data is used to demonstrate signal representation effects on uncertain model development, stability estimation, and nonlinear identification. Data is decomposed using adaptive orthonormal best-basis and wavelet-basis signal decompositions for signal denoising into linear and nonlinear identification algorithms. Nonlinear identification from a wavelet-based Volterra kernel procedure is used to extract nonlinear dynamics from aeroelastic responses, and to assist model development and uncertainty reduction for model validation and stability prediction by removing a class of nonlinearity from the uncertainty.

Urine Flow Dynamics Through Prostatic Urethra With Tubular Organ Modeling Using Endoscopic Imagery

PubMed Central

Kambara, Yoichi; Yamanishi, Tomonori; Naya, Yukio; Igarashi, Tatsuo

2014-01-01

Voiding dysfunction is common in the aged male population. However, the obstruction mechanism in the lower urinary tract and critical points for obstruction remains uncertain. The aim of this paper was to develop a system to investigate the relationship between voiding dysfunction and alteration of the shape of the prostatic urethra by processing endoscopic video images of the urethra and analyzing the fluid dynamics of the urine stream. A panoramic image of the prostatic urethra was generated from cystourethroscopic video images. A virtual 3-D model of the urethra was constructed using the luminance values in the image. Fluid dynamics using the constructed model was then calculated assuming a static urethra and maximum urine flow rate. Cystourethroscopic videos from 11 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia were recorded around administration of an alpha-1 adrenoceptor antagonist. The calculated pressure loss through the prostatic urethra in each model corresponded to the prostatic volume, and the improvements of the pressure loss after treatment correlated to the conventional clinical indices. As shown by the proposed method, the shape of the prostatic urethra affects the transporting urine fluid energy, and this paper implies a possible method for detecting critical lesions responsible for voiding dysfunction. The proposed method provides critical information about deformation of the prostatic urethra on voiding function. Detailed differences in the various types of relaxants for the lower urinary tract could be estimated. PMID:27170869

Adaptive feedback synchronisation of complex dynamical network with discrete-time communications and delayed nodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Ding, Yongsheng; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Kuangrong

2016-08-01

This paper considered the synchronisation of continuous complex dynamical networks with discrete-time communications and delayed nodes. The nodes in the dynamical networks act in the continuous manner, while the communications between nodes are discrete-time; that is, they communicate with others only at discrete time instants. The communication intervals in communication period can be uncertain and variable. By using a piecewise Lyapunov-Krasovskii function to govern the characteristics of the discrete communication instants, we investigate the adaptive feedback synchronisation and a criterion is derived to guarantee the existence of the desired controllers. The globally exponential synchronisation can be achieved by the controllers under the updating laws. Finally, two numerical examples including globally coupled network and nearest-neighbour coupled networks are presented to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

Randomness in denoised stock returns: The case of Moroccan family business companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2018-02-01

In this paper, we scrutinize entropy in family business stocks listed on Casablanca stock exchange and market index to assess randomness in their returns. For this purpose, we adopt a novel approach based on combination of stationary wavelet transform and Tsallis entropy for empirical analysis of the return series. The obtained empirical results show strong evidence that their respective entropy functions are characterized by opposite dynamics. Indeed, the information contents of their respective dynamics are statistically and significantly different. Obviously, information on regular events carried by family business returns is more certain, whilst that carried by market returns is uncertain. Such results are definitively useful to understand the nonlinear dynamics on returns on family business companies and those of the market. Without a doubt, they could be helpful for quantitative portfolio managers and investors.

Constructing Unfinalizability: A Subject Positioning Analysis of a Couple's Therapy Session Hosted by Tom Andersen.

PubMed

Guilfoyle, Michael

2018-03-08

The notion of subject positions is a useful tool in thinking through therapeutic interactions. In this article, I discuss positioning as an everyday phenomenon, and highlight the relational and social power dynamics that shape the subject positions persons may inhabit. Analysis is presented of the positional dynamics that play out in the couple's therapy session facilitated by Tom Andersen. Analysis suggests that Andersen adopts a not-knowing, uncertain, and curious position, while constructing the couple as competent, unfinalizable persons able to negotiate the choice-points that arise in front of them. However, if subject positions are grounded in social power dynamics, the session leaves a particular question unanswered: How will these emergent positions take hold outside of the consulting room? © 2018 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

Rational selection of experimental readout and intervention sites for reducing uncertainties in computational model predictions.

PubMed

Flassig, Robert J; Migal, Iryna; der Zalm, Esther van; Rihko-Struckmann, Liisa; Sundmacher, Kai

2015-01-16

Understanding the dynamics of biological processes can substantially be supported by computational models in the form of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE). Typically, this model class contains many unknown parameters, which are estimated from inadequate and noisy data. Depending on the ODE structure, predictions based on unmeasured states and associated parameters are highly uncertain, even undetermined. For given data, profile likelihood analysis has been proven to be one of the most practically relevant approaches for analyzing the identifiability of an ODE structure, and thus model predictions. In case of highly uncertain or non-identifiable parameters, rational experimental design based on various approaches has shown to significantly reduce parameter uncertainties with minimal amount of effort. In this work we illustrate how to use profile likelihood samples for quantifying the individual contribution of parameter uncertainty to prediction uncertainty. For the uncertainty quantification we introduce the profile likelihood sensitivity (PLS) index. Additionally, for the case of several uncertain parameters, we introduce the PLS entropy to quantify individual contributions to the overall prediction uncertainty. We show how to use these two criteria as an experimental design objective for selecting new, informative readouts in combination with intervention site identification. The characteristics of the proposed multi-criterion objective are illustrated with an in silico example. We further illustrate how an existing practically non-identifiable model for the chlorophyll fluorescence induction in a photosynthetic organism, D. salina, can be rendered identifiable by additional experiments with new readouts. Having data and profile likelihood samples at hand, the here proposed uncertainty quantification based on prediction samples from the profile likelihood provides a simple way for determining individual contributions of parameter uncertainties to uncertainties in model predictions. The uncertainty quantification of specific model predictions allows identifying regions, where model predictions have to be considered with care. Such uncertain regions can be used for a rational experimental design to render initially highly uncertain model predictions into certainty. Finally, our uncertainty quantification directly accounts for parameter interdependencies and parameter sensitivities of the specific prediction.

Fuzzy Adaptive Compensation Control of Uncertain Stochastic Nonlinear Systems With Actuator Failures and Input Hysteresis.

PubMed

Wang, Jianhui; Liu, Zhi; Chen, C L Philip; Zhang, Yun

2017-10-12

Hysteresis exists ubiquitously in physical actuators. Besides, actuator failures/faults may also occur in practice. Both effects would deteriorate the transient tracking performance, and even trigger instability. In this paper, we consider the problem of compensating for actuator failures and input hysteresis by proposing a fuzzy control scheme for stochastic nonlinear systems. Compared with the existing research on stochastic nonlinear uncertain systems, it is found that how to guarantee a prescribed transient tracking performance when taking into account actuator failures and hysteresis simultaneously also remains to be answered. Our proposed control scheme is designed on the basis of the fuzzy logic system and backstepping techniques for this purpose. It is proven that all the signals remain bounded and the tracking error is ensured to be within a preestablished bound with the failures of hysteretic actuator. Finally, simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.

Continuous higher-order sliding mode control with time-varying gain for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Han, Yaozhen; Liu, Xiangjie

2016-05-01

This paper presents a continuous higher-order sliding mode (HOSM) control scheme with time-varying gain for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. The proposed controller is derived from the concept of geometric homogeneity and super-twisting algorithm, and includes two parts, the first part of which achieves smooth finite time stabilization of pure integrator chains. The second part conquers the twice differentiable uncertainty and realizes system robustness by employing super-twisting algorithm. Particularly, time-varying switching control gain is constructed to reduce the switching control action magnitude to the minimum possible value while keeping the property of finite time convergence. Examples concerning the perturbed triple integrator chains and excitation control for single-machine infinite bus power system are simulated respectively to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Output-Feedback Neural Control of Switched Uncertain Nonlinear Systems With Average Dwell Time.

PubMed

Long, Lijun; Zhao, Jun

2015-07-01

This paper investigates the problem of adaptive neural tracking control via output-feedback for a class of switched uncertain nonlinear systems without the measurements of the system states. The unknown control signals are approximated directly by neural networks. A novel adaptive neural control technique for the problem studied is set up by exploiting the average dwell time method and backstepping. A switched filter and different update laws are designed to reduce the conservativeness caused by adoption of a common observer and a common update law for all subsystems. The proposed controllers of subsystems guarantee that all closed-loop signals remain bounded under a class of switching signals with average dwell time, while the output tracking error converges to a small neighborhood of the origin. As an application of the proposed design method, adaptive output feedback neural tracking controllers for a mass-spring-damper system are constructed.

Observer-based state tracking control of uncertain stochastic systems via repetitive controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakthivel, R.; Susana Ramya, L.; Selvaraj, P.

2017-08-01

This paper develops the repetitive control scheme for state tracking control of uncertain stochastic time-varying delay systems via equivalent-input-disturbance approach. The main purpose of this work is to design a repetitive controller to guarantee the tracking performance under the effects of unknown disturbances with bounded frequency and parameter variations. Specifically, a new set of linear matrix inequality (LMI)-based conditions is derived based on the suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional theory for designing a repetitive controller which guarantees stability and desired tracking performance. More precisely, an equivalent-input-disturbance estimator is incorporated into the control design to reduce the effect of the external disturbances. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the desired control system stability and their tracking performance. A practical stream water quality preserving system is also provided to show the effectiveness and advantage of the proposed approach.

Microbial Activity and Depositional System Dynamics: Linking Scales With The Aid of New Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Defew, E. C.; Hagerthey, S. E.; Honeywill, C.; Perkins, R. G.; Black, K. S.; Paterson, D. M.

The dynamics of estuarine depositional systems are influenced by sediment-dwelling microphytobenthic assemblages. These assemblages produce extracellular polymeric substances (EPS), which are known to be important in the process of sediment biosta- bilisation. However, these communities are generally studied on very small spatial scales making the prediction of primary productivity and their importance in terms of sediment stability over large areas uncertain. Recent advances in our knowledge of the biostabilisation process have allowed the establishment of links between EPS produc- tion, spatial distribution of algal biomass and their primary productivity over much larger spatial scales. For example, during the multidisciplinary BIOPTIS project, re- mote sensing (RS) was combined with ground-truthing measurements of physical and biological parameters to produce synoptic maps leading to a better understanding of system dynamics and the potential effects of environmental perturbations such as cli- mate change. Recent work using low-temperature scanning electron microscopy (LT- SEM) and in-line laser holography has measured the influence of EPS on the erosional behaviour of sediment flocs and particles and has shown that an increase in the con- centration of EPS determines the nature of the eroded floc material and the critical threshold for sediment erosion. This provides the mechanistic link required between EPS concentration and sediment stability. Whilst it is not yet possible to discern EPS concentration directly by RS studies, we know that EPS concentrations in sediments co-vary with chlorophyll a content, and are closely related to algal productivity. There- fore, RS studies which provide large-scale spatial information of chlorophyll a distri- bution may be used to model the stability and productivity of intertidal depositional systems. This paper introduces the basis of these linkages from the cellular level (in situ chlorophyll fluorescence), the ground-truthing approach (sediment stability, struc- ture, pigment distribution, in situ chlorophyll fluorescence) and investigates the poten- tial of a RS approach in a case study of a Scottish Estuary.

Safe motion planning for mobile agents: A model of reactive planning for multiple mobile agents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujimura, Kikuo.

1990-01-01

The problem of motion planning for multiple mobile agents is studied. Each planning agent independently plans its own action based on its map which contains a limited information about the environment. In an environment where more than one mobile agent interacts, the motions of the robots are uncertain and dynamic. A model for reactive agents is described and simulation results are presented to show their behavior patterns. 18 refs., 2 figs.

Assessing the statistical robustness of inter- and intra-basinal carbon isotope chemostratigraphic correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, C.; Creveling, J. R.; Huybers, P. J.

2016-12-01

Excursions in the stable carbon isotopic composition of carbonate rocks (δ13Ccarb) can facilitate correlation of Precambrian and Phanerozoic sedimentary successions at a higher temporal resolution than radiometric and biostratigraphic frameworks typically afford. Within the bounds of litho- and biostratigraphic constraints, stratigraphers often correlate isotopic patterns between distant stratigraphic sections through visual alignment of local maxima and minima of isotopic values. The reproducibility of this method can prove challenging and, thus, evaluating the statistical robustness of intrabasinal composite carbon isotope curves, and global correlations to these reference curves, remains difficult. To assess the reproducibility of stratigraphic alignment of δ13Ccarb data, and correlations between carbon isotope excursions, we employ a numerical dynamic time warping methodology that stretches and squeezes the time axis of a record to obtain an optimal correlation (in a least-squares sense) between time-uncertain series of data. In particular, we assess various alignments between series of Early Cambrian δ13Ccarb data with respect to plausible matches. We first show that an alignment of these records obtained visually, and published previously, is broadly reproducible using dynamic time warping. Alternative alignments with similar goodness of fits are also obtainable, and their stratigraphic plausibility are discussed. This approach should be generalizable to an algorithm for the purposes of developing a library of plausible alignments between multiple time-uncertain stratigraphic records.

A robust adaptive observer for a class of singular nonlinear uncertain systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arefinia, Elaheh; Talebi, Heidar Ali; Doustmohammadi, Ali

2017-05-01

This paper proposes a robust adaptive observer for a class of singular nonlinear non-autonomous uncertain systems with unstructured unknown system and derivative matrices, and unknown bounded nonlinearities. Unlike many existing observers, no strong assumption such as Lipschitz condition is imposed on the recommended system. An augmented system is constructed, and the unknown bounds are calculated online using adaptive bounding technique. Considering the continuous nonlinear gain removes the chattering which may appear in practical applications such as analysis of electrical circuits and estimation of interaction force in beating heart robotic-assisted surgery. Moreover, a simple yet precise structure is attained which is easy to implement in many systems with significant uncertainties. The existence conditions of the standard form observer are obtained in terms of linear matrix inequality and the constrained generalised Sylvester's equations, and global stability is ensured. Finally, simulation results are obtained to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed scheme.

Multi-AUV autonomous task planning based on the scroll time domain quantum bee colony optimization algorithm in uncertain environment

PubMed Central

Zhang, Rubo; Yang, Yu

2017-01-01

Research on distributed task planning model for multi-autonomous underwater vehicle (MAUV). A scroll time domain quantum artificial bee colony (STDQABC) optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the multi-AUV optimal task planning scheme. In the uncertain marine environment, the rolling time domain control technique is used to realize a numerical optimization in a narrowed time range. Rolling time domain control is one of the better task planning techniques, which can greatly reduce the computational workload and realize the tradeoff between AUV dynamics, environment and cost. Finally, a simulation experiment was performed to evaluate the distributed task planning performance of the scroll time domain quantum bee colony optimization algorithm. The simulation results demonstrate that the STDQABC algorithm converges faster than the QABC and ABC algorithms in terms of both iterations and running time. The STDQABC algorithm can effectively improve MAUV distributed tasking planning performance, complete the task goal and get the approximate optimal solution. PMID:29186166

Multi-AUV autonomous task planning based on the scroll time domain quantum bee colony optimization algorithm in uncertain environment.

PubMed

Li, Jianjun; Zhang, Rubo; Yang, Yu

2017-01-01

Research on distributed task planning model for multi-autonomous underwater vehicle (MAUV). A scroll time domain quantum artificial bee colony (STDQABC) optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the multi-AUV optimal task planning scheme. In the uncertain marine environment, the rolling time domain control technique is used to realize a numerical optimization in a narrowed time range. Rolling time domain control is one of the better task planning techniques, which can greatly reduce the computational workload and realize the tradeoff between AUV dynamics, environment and cost. Finally, a simulation experiment was performed to evaluate the distributed task planning performance of the scroll time domain quantum bee colony optimization algorithm. The simulation results demonstrate that the STDQABC algorithm converges faster than the QABC and ABC algorithms in terms of both iterations and running time. The STDQABC algorithm can effectively improve MAUV distributed tasking planning performance, complete the task goal and get the approximate optimal solution.

Nucleotide synthetase ribozymes may have emerged first in the RNA world

PubMed Central

Ma, Wentao; Yu, Chunwu; Zhang, Wentao; Hu, Jiming

2007-01-01

Though the “RNA world” hypothesis has gained a central role in ideas concerning the origin of life, the scenario concerning its emergence remains uncertain. It has been speculated that the first scene may have been the emergence of a template-dependent RNA synthetase ribozyme, which catalyzed its own replication: thus, “RNA replicase.” However, the speculation remains uncertain, primarily because of the large sequence length requirement of such a replicase and the lack of a convincing mechanism to ensure its self-favoring features. Instead, we propose a nucleotide synthetase ribozyme as an alternative candidate, especially considering recent experimental evidence suggesting the possibility of effective nonenzymatic template-directed synthesis of RNA. A computer simulation was conducted to support our proposal. The conditions for the emergence of the nucleotide synthetase ribozyme are discussed, based on dynamic analysis on a computer. We suggest the template-dependent RNA synthetase ribozyme emerged later, perhaps after the emergence of protocells. PMID:17878321

Composite Robust $$H_\\infty$$ Control for Uncertain Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with State Delay via Disturbance Observer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yunlong; Wang, Hong; Guo, Lei

Here in this note, the robust stochastic stabilization and robust H_infinity control problems are investigated for uncertain stochastic time-delay systems with nonlinearity and multiple disturbances. By estimating the disturbance, which can be described by an exogenous model, a composite hierarchical control scheme is proposed that integrates the output of the disturbance observer with state feedback control law. Sufficient conditions for the existence of the disturbance observer and composite hierarchical controller are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which ensure the mean-square asymptotic stability of the resulting closed-loop system and the disturbance attenuation. It has been shown that the disturbancemore » rejection performance can also be achieved. A numerical example is provided to show the potential of the proposed techniques and encouraging results have been obtained.« less

Almost output regulation of LFT systems via gain-scheduling control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Chengzhi; Duan, Chang; Wu, Fen

2018-05-01

Output regulation of general uncertain systems is a meaningful yet challenging problem. In spite of the rich literature in the field, the problem has not yet been addressed adequately due to the lack of an effective design mechanism. In this paper, we propose a new design framework for almost output regulation of uncertain systems described in the general form of linear fractional transformation (LFT) with time-varying parametric uncertainties and unknown external perturbations. A novel semi-LFT gain-scheduling output regulator structure is proposed, such that the associated control synthesis conditions guaranteeing both output regulation and ? disturbance attenuation performance are formulated as a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) plus parameter-dependent linear matrix equations, which can be solved separately. A numerical example has been used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Finite-time output feedback control of uncertain switched systems via sliding mode design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Haijuan; Niu, Yugang; Song, Jun

2018-04-01

The problem of sliding mode control (SMC) is investigated for a class of uncertain switched systems subject to unmeasurable state and assigned finite (possible short) time constraint. A key issue is how to ensure the finite-time boundedness (FTB) of system state during reaching phase and sliding motion phase. To this end, a state observer is constructed to estimate the unmeasured states. And then, a state estimate-based SMC law is designed such that the state trajectories can be driven onto the specified integral sliding surface during the assigned finite time interval. By means of partitioning strategy, the corresponding FTB over reaching phase and sliding motion phase are guaranteed and the sufficient conditions are derived via average dwell time technique. Finally, an illustrative example is given to illustrate the proposed method.

Composite Robust $$H_\\infty$$ Control for Uncertain Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with State Delay via Disturbance Observer

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yunlong; Wang, Hong; Guo, Lei

2018-03-26

Here in this note, the robust stochastic stabilization and robust H_infinity control problems are investigated for uncertain stochastic time-delay systems with nonlinearity and multiple disturbances. By estimating the disturbance, which can be described by an exogenous model, a composite hierarchical control scheme is proposed that integrates the output of the disturbance observer with state feedback control law. Sufficient conditions for the existence of the disturbance observer and composite hierarchical controller are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which ensure the mean-square asymptotic stability of the resulting closed-loop system and the disturbance attenuation. It has been shown that the disturbancemore » rejection performance can also be achieved. A numerical example is provided to show the potential of the proposed techniques and encouraging results have been obtained.« less

Adaptive robust fault tolerant control design for a class of nonlinear uncertain MIMO systems with quantization.

PubMed

Ao, Wei; Song, Yongdong; Wen, Changyun

2017-05-01

In this paper, we investigate the adaptive control problem for a class of nonlinear uncertain MIMO systems with actuator faults and quantization effects. Under some mild conditions, an adaptive robust fault-tolerant control is developed to compensate the affects of uncertainties, actuator failures and errors caused by quantization, and a range of the parameters for these quantizers is established. Furthermore, a Lyapunov-like approach is adopted to demonstrate that the ultimately uniformly bounded output tracking error is guaranteed by the controller, and the signals of the closed-loop system are ensured to be bounded, even in the presence of at most m-q actuators stuck or outage. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to verify and illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive schemes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE PAGES

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.; ...

2018-02-01

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Adaptive Critic Nonlinear Robust Control: A Survey.

PubMed

Wang, Ding; He, Haibo; Liu, Derong

2017-10-01

Adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) and reinforcement learning are quite relevant to each other when performing intelligent optimization. They are both regarded as promising methods involving important components of evaluation and improvement, at the background of information technology, such as artificial intelligence, big data, and deep learning. Although great progresses have been achieved and surveyed when addressing nonlinear optimal control problems, the research on robustness of ADP-based control strategies under uncertain environment has not been fully summarized. Hence, this survey reviews the recent main results of adaptive-critic-based robust control design of continuous-time nonlinear systems. The ADP-based nonlinear optimal regulation is reviewed, followed by robust stabilization of nonlinear systems with matched uncertainties, guaranteed cost control design of unmatched plants, and decentralized stabilization of interconnected systems. Additionally, further comprehensive discussions are presented, including event-based robust control design, improvement of the critic learning rule, nonlinear H ∞ control design, and several notes on future perspectives. By applying the ADP-based optimal and robust control methods to a practical power system and an overhead crane plant, two typical examples are provided to verify the effectiveness of theoretical results. Overall, this survey is beneficial to promote the development of adaptive critic control methods with robustness guarantee and the construction of higher level intelligent systems.