Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of Subsurface Flow Parameters to Gravimetric Variations During Pumping Tests in Unconfined Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maina, Fadji Zaouna; Guadagnini, Alberto

2018-01-01

We study the contribution of typically uncertain subsurface flow parameters to gravity changes that can be recorded during pumping tests in unconfined aquifers. We do so in the framework of a Global Sensitivity Analysis and quantify the effects of uncertainty of such parameters on the first four statistical moments of the probability distribution of gravimetric variations induced by the operation of the well. System parameters are grouped into two main categories, respectively, governing groundwater flow in the unsaturated and saturated portions of the domain. We ground our work on the three-dimensional analytical model proposed by Mishra and Neuman (2011), which fully takes into account the richness of the physical process taking place across the unsaturated and saturated zones and storage effects in a finite radius pumping well. The relative influence of model parameter uncertainties on drawdown, moisture content, and gravity changes are quantified through (a) the Sobol' indices, derived from a classical decomposition of variance and (b) recently developed indices quantifying the relative contribution of each uncertain model parameter to the (ensemble) mean, skewness, and kurtosis of the model output. Our results document (i) the importance of the effects of the parameters governing the unsaturated flow dynamics on the mean and variance of local drawdown and gravity changes; (ii) the marked sensitivity (as expressed in terms of the statistical moments analyzed) of gravity changes to the employed water retention curve model parameter, specific yield, and storage, and (iii) the influential role of hydraulic conductivity of the unsaturated and saturated zones to the skewness and kurtosis of gravimetric variation distributions. The observed temporal dynamics of the strength of the relative contribution of system parameters to gravimetric variations suggest that gravity data have a clear potential to provide useful information for estimating the key hydraulic parameters of the system.

Effects of ground-water chemistry and flow on quality of drainflow in the western San Joaquin Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fio, John L.; Leighton, David A.

1994-01-01

Chemical and geohydrologic data were used to assess the effects of regional ground-water flow on the quality of on-farm drainflows in a part of the western San Joaquin Valley, California. Shallow ground water beneath farm fields has been enriched in stable isotopes and salts by partial evaporation from the shallow water table and is being displaced by irrigation, drainage, and regional ground-water flow. Ground-water flow is primarily downward in the study area but can flow upward in some down- slope areas. Transitional areas exist between the downward and upward flow zones, where ground water can move substantial horizontal distances (0.3 to 3.6 kilometers) and can require 10 to 90 years to reach the downslope drainage systems. Simulation of ground-water flow to drainage systems indicates that regional ground water contributes to about 11 percent of annual drainflow. Selenium concentrations in ground water and drainwater are affected by geologic source materials, partial evaporation from a shallow water table, drainage-system, and regional ground-water flow. Temporal variability in drainflow quality is affected in part by the distribution of chemical constituents in ground water and the flow paths to the drainage systems. The mass flux of selenium in drainflows, or load, generally is proportional to flow, and reductions in drainflow quantity should reduce selenium loads over the short-term. Uncertain changes in the distribution of ground-water quality make future changes in drainflow quality difficult to quantify.

Extreme-Scale Stochastic Particle Tracing for Uncertain Unsteady Flow Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Hanqi; He, Wenbin; Seo, Sangmin

2016-11-13

We present an efficient and scalable solution to estimate uncertain transport behaviors using stochastic flow maps (SFM,) for visualizing and analyzing uncertain unsteady flows. SFM computation is extremely expensive because it requires many Monte Carlo runs to trace densely seeded particles in the flow. We alleviate the computational cost by decoupling the time dependencies in SFMs so that we can process adjacent time steps independently and then compose them together for longer time periods. Adaptive refinement is also used to reduce the number of runs for each location. We then parallelize over tasks—packets of particles in our design—to achieve highmore » efficiency in MPI/thread hybrid programming. Such a task model also enables CPU/GPU coprocessing. We show the scalability on two supercomputers, Mira (up to 1M Blue Gene/Q cores) and Titan (up to 128K Opteron cores and 8K GPUs), that can trace billions of particles in seconds.« less

Steady-state flow distribution and monthly flow duration in selected branches of St. Clair and Detroit rivers within the Great Lakes waterway

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, D.J.; Koschik, J.A.

2001-01-01

St. Clair and Detroit Rivers are connecting channels between Lake Huron and Lake Erie in the Great Lakes waterway, and form part of the boundary between the United States and Canada. St. Clair River, the upper connecting channel, drains 222,400 square miles and has an average flow of about 182,000 cubic feet per second. Water from St. Clair River combines with local inflows and discharges into Lake St. Clair before flowing into Detroit River. In some reaches of St. Clair and Detroit Rivers, islands and dikes split the flow into two to four branches. Even when the flow in a reach is known, proportions of flows within individual branches of a reach are uncertain. Simple linear regression equations, subject to a flow continuity constraint, are developed to provide estimators of these proportions and flows. The equations are based on 533 paired measurements of flow in 13 reaches forming 31 branches. The equations provide a means for computing the expected values and uncertainties of steady-state flows on the basis of flow conditions specified at the upstream boundaries of the waterway. In 7 upstream reaches, flow is considered fixed because it can be determined on the basis of flows specified at waterway boundaries and flow continuity. In these reaches, the uncertainties of flow proportions indicated by the regression equations can be used directly to determine the uncertainties of the corresponding flows. In the remaining 6 downstream reaches, flow is considered uncertain because these reaches do not receive flow from all the branches of an upstream reach, or they receive flow from some branches of more than one upstream reach. Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used to quantify this increase in uncertainty associated with the propagation of uncertainties from upstream reaches to downstream reaches. To eliminate the need for Monte Carlo simulations for routine calculations, polynomial regression equations are developed to approximate the variation in uncertainties as a function of flow at the headwaters of St. Clair River. Finally, monthly flow-duration data on the main channels of St. Clair and Detroit Rivers are used with the equations developed in this report to estimate the steady-state flow-duration characteristics of selected branches.

Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

2016-10-01

An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

Long-time uncertainty propagation using generalized polynomial chaos and flow map composition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luchtenburg, Dirk M., E-mail: dluchten@cooper.edu; Brunton, Steven L.; Rowley, Clarence W.

2014-10-01

We present an efficient and accurate method for long-time uncertainty propagation in dynamical systems. Uncertain initial conditions and parameters are both addressed. The method approximates the intermediate short-time flow maps by spectral polynomial bases, as in the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) method, and uses flow map composition to construct the long-time flow map. In contrast to the gPC method, this approach has spectral error convergence for both short and long integration times. The short-time flow map is characterized by small stretching and folding of the associated trajectories and hence can be well represented by a relatively low-degree basis. The compositionmore » of these low-degree polynomial bases then accurately describes the uncertainty behavior for long integration times. The key to the method is that the degree of the resulting polynomial approximation increases exponentially in the number of time intervals, while the number of polynomial coefficients either remains constant (for an autonomous system) or increases linearly in the number of time intervals (for a non-autonomous system). The findings are illustrated on several numerical examples including a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) with an uncertain initial condition, a linear ODE with an uncertain model parameter, and a two-dimensional, non-autonomous double gyre flow.« less

Iterative Importance Sampling Algorithms for Parameter Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grout, Ray W; Morzfeld, Matthias; Day, Marcus S.

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of such problems. An alternative to MCMC is importance sampling, which can exhibit near perfect scaling with the number of cores on high performance computing systems because samples are drawn independently. However, finding a suitable proposal distribution is a challenging task. Several sampling algorithms have been proposed over the past years that take an iterative approach to constructing a proposal distribution. We investigate the applicabilitymore » of such algorithms by applying them to two realistic and challenging test problems, one in subsurface flow, and one in combustion modeling. More specifically, we implement importance sampling algorithms that iterate over the mean and covariance matrix of Gaussian or multivariate t-proposal distributions. Our implementation leverages massively parallel computers, and we present strategies to initialize the iterations using 'coarse' MCMC runs or Gaussian mixture models.« less

In Situ Distribution Guided Analysis and Visualization of Transonic Jet Engine Simulations.

PubMed

Dutta, Soumya; Chen, Chun-Ming; Heinlein, Gregory; Shen, Han-Wei; Chen, Jen-Ping

2017-01-01

Study of flow instability in turbine engine compressors is crucial to understand the inception and evolution of engine stall. Aerodynamics experts have been working on detecting the early signs of stall in order to devise novel stall suppression technologies. A state-of-the-art Navier-Stokes based, time-accurate computational fluid dynamics simulator, TURBO, has been developed in NASA to enhance the understanding of flow phenomena undergoing rotating stall. Despite the proven high modeling accuracy of TURBO, the excessive simulation data prohibits post-hoc analysis in both storage and I/O time. To address these issues and allow the expert to perform scalable stall analysis, we have designed an in situ distribution guided stall analysis technique. Our method summarizes statistics of important properties of the simulation data in situ using a probabilistic data modeling scheme. This data summarization enables statistical anomaly detection for flow instability in post analysis, which reveals the spatiotemporal trends of rotating stall for the expert to conceive new hypotheses. Furthermore, the verification of the hypotheses and exploratory visualization using the summarized data are realized using probabilistic visualization techniques such as uncertain isocontouring. Positive feedback from the domain scientist has indicated the efficacy of our system in exploratory stall analysis.

Design Flexibility for Uncertain Distributed Generation from Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Wu, Hongyu

2016-12-12

Uncertainty in the future adoption patterns for distributed energy resources (DERs) introduces a challenge for electric distribution system planning. This paper explores the potential for flexibility in design - also known as real options - to identify design solutions that may never emerge when future DER patterns are treated as deterministic. A test case for storage system design with uncertain distributed generation for solar photovoltaics (DGPV) demonstrates this approach and is used to study sensitivities to a range of techno-economic assumptions.

Divergence instability of pipes conveying fluid with uncertain flow velocity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmati, Mehdi; Mirdamadi, Hamid Reza; Goli, Sareh

2018-02-01

This article deals with investigation of probabilistic stability of pipes conveying fluid with stochastic flow velocity in time domain. As a matter of fact, this study has focused on the randomness effects of flow velocity on stability of pipes conveying fluid while most of research efforts have only focused on the influences of deterministic parameters on the system stability. The Euler-Bernoulli beam and plug flow theory are employed to model pipe structure and internal flow, respectively. In addition, flow velocity is considered as a stationary random process with Gaussian distribution. Afterwards, the stochastic averaging method and Routh's stability criterion are used so as to investigate the stability conditions of system. Consequently, the effects of boundary conditions, viscoelastic damping, mass ratio, and elastic foundation on the stability regions are discussed. Results delineate that the critical mean flow velocity decreases by increasing power spectral density (PSD) of the random velocity. Moreover, by increasing PSD from zero, the type effects of boundary condition and presence of elastic foundation are diminished, while the influences of viscoelastic damping and mass ratio could increase. Finally, to have a more applicable study, regression analysis is utilized to develop design equations and facilitate further analyses for design purposes.

Validating Cellular Automata Lava Flow Emplacement Algorithms with Standard Benchmarks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, J. A.; Connor, L.; Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C.; Gallant, E.

2015-12-01

A major existing need in assessing lava flow simulators is a common set of validation benchmark tests. We propose three levels of benchmarks which test model output against increasingly complex standards. First, imulated lava flows should be morphologically identical, given changes in parameter space that should be inconsequential, such as slope direction. Second, lava flows simulated in simple parameter spaces can be tested against analytical solutions or empirical relationships seen in Bingham fluids. For instance, a lava flow simulated on a flat surface should produce a circular outline. Third, lava flows simulated over real world topography can be compared to recent real world lava flows, such as those at Tolbachik, Russia, and Fogo, Cape Verde. Success or failure of emplacement algorithms in these validation benchmarks can be determined using a Bayesian approach, which directly tests the ability of an emplacement algorithm to correctly forecast lava inundation. Here we focus on two posterior metrics, P(A|B) and P(¬A|¬B), which describe the positive and negative predictive value of flow algorithms. This is an improvement on less direct statistics such as model sensitivity and the Jaccard fitness coefficient. We have performed these validation benchmarks on a new, modular lava flow emplacement simulator that we have developed. This simulator, which we call MOLASSES, follows a Cellular Automata (CA) method. The code is developed in several interchangeable modules, which enables quick modification of the distribution algorithm from cell locations to their neighbors. By assessing several different distribution schemes with the benchmark tests, we have improved the performance of MOLASSES to correctly match early stages of the 2012-3 Tolbachik Flow, Kamchakta Russia, to 80%. We also can evaluate model performance given uncertain input parameters using a Monte Carlo setup. This illuminates sensitivity to model uncertainty.

Advanced Distribution Network Modelling with Distributed Energy Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, Alison

The addition of new distributed energy resources, such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and storage, to low voltage distribution networks means that these networks will undergo major changes in the future. Traditionally, distribution systems would have been a passive part of the wider power system, delivering electricity to the customer and not needing much control or management. However, the introduction of these new technologies may cause unforeseen issues for distribution networks, due to the fact that they were not considered when the networks were originally designed. This thesis examines different types of technologies that may begin to emerge on distribution systems, as well as the resulting challenges that they may impose. Three-phase models of distribution networks are developed and subsequently utilised as test cases. Various management strategies are devised for the purposes of controlling distributed resources from a distribution network perspective. The aim of the management strategies is to mitigate those issues that distributed resources may cause, while also keeping customers' preferences in mind. A rolling optimisation formulation is proposed as an operational tool which can manage distributed resources, while also accounting for the uncertainties that these resources may present. Network sensitivities for a particular feeder are extracted from a three-phase load flow methodology and incorporated into an optimisation. Electric vehicles are the focus of the work, although the method could be applied to other types of resources. The aim is to minimise the cost of electric vehicle charging over a 24-hour time horizon by controlling the charge rates and timings of the vehicles. The results demonstrate the advantage that controlled EV charging can have over an uncontrolled case, as well as the benefits provided by the rolling formulation and updated inputs in terms of cost and energy delivered to customers. Building upon the rolling optimisation, a three-phase optimal power flow method is developed. The formulation has the capability to provide optimal solutions for distribution system control variables, for a chosen objective function, subject to required constraints. It can, therefore, be utilised for numerous technologies and applications. The three-phase optimal power flow is employed to manage various distributed resources, such as photovoltaics and storage, as well as distribution equipment, including tap changers and switches. The flexibility of the methodology allows it to be applied in both an operational and a planning capacity. The three-phase optimal power flow is employed in an operational planning capacity to determine volt-var curves for distributed photovoltaic inverters. The formulation finds optimal reactive power settings for a number of load and solar scenarios and uses these reactive power points to create volt-var curves. Volt-var curves are determined for 10 PV systems on a test feeder. A universal curve is also determined which is applicable to all inverters. The curves are validated by testing them in a power flow setting over a 24-hour test period. The curves are shown to provide advantages to the feeder in terms of reduction of voltage deviations and unbalance, with the individual curves proving to be more effective. It is also shown that adding a new PV system to the feeder only requires analysis for that system. In order to represent the uncertainties that inherently occur on distribution systems, an information gap decision theory method is also proposed and integrated into the three-phase optimal power flow formulation. This allows for robust network decisions to be made using only an initial prediction for what the uncertain parameter will be. The work determines tap and switch settings for a test network with demand being treated as uncertain. The aim is to keep losses below a predefined acceptable value. The results provide the decision maker with the maximum possible variation in demand for a given acceptable variation in the losses. A validation is performed with the resulting tap and switch settings being implemented, and shows that the control decisions provided by the formulation keep losses below the acceptable value while adhering to the limits imposed by the network.

Inverse algorithms for 2D shallow water equations in presence of wet dry fronts: Application to flood plain dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, J.; Couderc, F.; Dartus, D.; Larnier, K.; Madec, R.; Vila, J.-P.

2016-11-01

The 2D shallow water equations adequately model some geophysical flows with wet-dry fronts (e.g. flood plain or tidal flows); nevertheless deriving accurate, robust and conservative numerical schemes for dynamic wet-dry fronts over complex topographies remains a challenge. Furthermore for these flows, data are generally complex, multi-scale and uncertain. Robust variational inverse algorithms, providing sensitivity maps and data assimilation processes may contribute to breakthrough shallow wet-dry front dynamics modelling. The present study aims at deriving an accurate, positive and stable finite volume scheme in presence of dynamic wet-dry fronts, and some corresponding inverse computational algorithms (variational approach). The schemes and algorithms are assessed on classical and original benchmarks plus a real flood plain test case (Lèze river, France). Original sensitivity maps with respect to the (friction, topography) pair are performed and discussed. The identification of inflow discharges (time series) or friction coefficients (spatially distributed parameters) demonstrate the algorithms efficiency.

A Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis method for analyzing parameter uncertainty of hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y. R.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.; Zhang, J. L.; Fan, Y. R.

2017-10-01

In this study, a Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis (BMFA) method is developed to assess parameter uncertainties and their effects on hydrological model responses. In BMFA, Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is employed to approximate the posterior distributions of model parameters with Bayesian inference; factorial analysis (FA) technique is used for measuring the specific variations of hydrological responses in terms of posterior distributions to investigate the individual and interactive effects of parameters on model outputs. BMFA is then applied to a case study of the Jinghe River watershed in the Loess Plateau of China to display its validity and applicability. The uncertainties of four sensitive parameters, including soil conservation service runoff curve number to moisture condition II (CN2), soil hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K), plant available water capacity (SOL_AWC), and soil depth (SOL_Z), are investigated. Results reveal that (i) CN2 has positive effect on peak flow, implying that the concentrated rainfall during rainy season can cause infiltration-excess surface flow, which is an considerable contributor to peak flow in this watershed; (ii) SOL_K has positive effect on average flow, implying that the widely distributed cambisols can lead to medium percolation capacity; (iii) the interaction between SOL_AWC and SOL_Z has noticeable effect on the peak flow and their effects are dependent upon each other, which discloses that soil depth can significant influence the processes of plant uptake of soil water in this watershed. Based on the above findings, the significant parameters and the relationship among uncertain parameters can be specified, such that hydrological model's capability for simulating/predicting water resources of the Jinghe River watershed can be improved.

Mixing-controlled uncertainty in long-term predictions of acid rock drainage from heterogeneous waste-rock piles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedretti, D.; Beckie, R. D.; Mayer, K. U.

2015-12-01

The chemistry of drainage from waste-rock piles at mine sites is difficult to predict because of a number of uncertainties including heterogeneous reactive mineral content, distribution of minerals, weathering rates and physical flow properties. In this presentation, we examine the effects of mixing on drainage chemistry over timescales of 100s of years. We use a 1-D streamtube conceptualization of flow in waste rocks and multicomponent reactive transport modeling. We simplify the reactive system to consist of acid-producing sulfide minerals and acid-neutralizing carbonate minerals and secondary sulfate and iron oxide minerals. We create multiple realizations of waste-rock piles with distinct distributions of reactive minerals along each flow path and examine the uncertainty of drainage geochemistry through time. The limited mixing of streamtubes that is characteristic of the vertical unsaturated flow in many waste-rock piles, allows individual flowpaths to sustain acid or neutral conditions to the base of the pile, where the streamtubes mix. Consequently, mixing and the acidity/alkalinity balance of the streamtube waters, and not the overall acid- and base-producing mineral contents, control the instantaneous discharge chemistry. Our results show that the limited mixing implied by preferential flow and the heterogeneous distribution of mineral contents lead to large uncertainty in drainage chemistry over short and medium time scales. However, over longer timescales when one of either the acid-producing or neutralizing primary phases is depleted, the drainage chemistry becomes less controlled by mixing and in turn less uncertain. A correct understanding of the temporal variability of uncertainty is key to make informed long-term decisions in mining settings regarding the management of waste material.

Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

PubMed

Solow, Andrew; Smith, Woollcott; Burgman, Mark; Rout, Tracy; Wintle, Brendan; Roberts, David

2012-02-01

The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often, however, there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date, uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03, which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944, 1952, and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Statistical Approaches for Spatiotemporal Prediction of Low Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, A.; Haberlandt, U.

2017-12-01

An adequate assessment of regional climate change impacts on streamflow requires the integration of various sources of information and modeling approaches. This study proposes simple statistical tools for inclusion into model ensembles, which are fast and straightforward in their application, yet able to yield accurate streamflow predictions in time and space. Target variables for all approaches are annual low flow indices derived from a data set of 51 records of average daily discharge for northwestern Germany. The models require input of climatic data in the form of meteorological drought indices, derived from observed daily climatic variables, averaged over the streamflow gauges' catchments areas. Four different modeling approaches are analyzed. Basis for all pose multiple linear regression models that estimate low flows as a function of a set of meteorological indices and/or physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors. For the first method, individual regression models are fitted at each station, predicting annual low flow values from a set of annual meteorological indices, which are subsequently regionalized using a set of catchment characteristics. The second method combines temporal and spatial prediction within a single panel data regression model, allowing estimation of annual low flow values from input of both annual meteorological indices and catchment descriptors. The third and fourth methods represent non-stationary low flow frequency analyses and require fitting of regional distribution functions. Method three is subject to a spatiotemporal prediction of an index value, method four to estimation of L-moments that adapt the regional frequency distribution to the at-site conditions. The results show that method two outperforms successive prediction in time and space. Method three also shows a high performance in the near future period, but since it relies on a stationary distribution, its application for prediction of far future changes may be problematic. Spatiotemporal prediction of L-moments appeared highly uncertain for higher-order moments resulting in unrealistic future low flow values. All in all, the results promote an inclusion of simple statistical methods in climate change impact assessment.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng; Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay

PubMed Central

Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

2016-01-01

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method. PMID:27669005

Robust cooperation of connected vehicle systems with eigenvalue-bounded interaction topologies in the presence of uncertain dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Keqiang; Gao, Feng; Li, Shengbo Eben; Zheng, Yang; Gao, Hongbo

2017-12-01

This study presents a distributed H-infinity control method for uncertain platoons with dimensionally and structurally unknown interaction topologies provided that the associated topological eigenvalues are bounded by a predesigned range.With an inverse model to compensate for nonlinear powertrain dynamics, vehicles in a platoon are modeled by third-order uncertain systems with bounded disturbances. On the basis of the eigenvalue decomposition of topological matrices, we convert the platoon system to a norm-bounded uncertain part and a diagonally structured certain part by applying linear transformation. We then use a common Lyapunov method to design a distributed H-infinity controller. Numerically, two linear matrix inequalities corresponding to the minimum and maximum eigenvalues should be solved. The resulting controller can tolerate interaction topologies with eigenvalues located in a certain range. The proposed method can also ensure robustness performance and disturbance attenuation ability for the closed-loop platoon system. Hardware-in-the-loop tests are performed to validate the effectiveness of our method.

Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time-space evolutionary probability distribution - Part 1: theoretical development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dib, Alain; Kavvas, M. Levent

2018-03-01

The Saint-Venant equations are commonly used as the governing equations to solve for modeling the spatially varied unsteady flow in open channels. The presence of uncertainties in the channel or flow parameters renders these equations stochastic, thus requiring their solution in a stochastic framework in order to quantify the ensemble behavior and the variability of the process. While the Monte Carlo approach can be used for such a solution, its computational expense and its large number of simulations act to its disadvantage. This study proposes, explains, and derives a new methodology for solving the stochastic Saint-Venant equations in only one shot, without the need for a large number of simulations. The proposed methodology is derived by developing the nonlocal Lagrangian-Eulerian Fokker-Planck equation of the characteristic form of the stochastic Saint-Venant equations for an open-channel flow process, with an uncertain roughness coefficient. A numerical method for its solution is subsequently devised. The application and validation of this methodology are provided in a companion paper, in which the statistical results computed by the proposed methodology are compared against the results obtained by the Monte Carlo approach.

Characterizing Topology of Probabilistic Biological Networks.

PubMed

Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer

2013-09-06

Biological interactions are often uncertain events, that may or may not take place with some probability. Existing studies analyze the degree distribution of biological networks by assuming that all the given interactions take place under all circumstances. This strong and often incorrect assumption can lead to misleading results. Here, we address this problem and develop a sound mathematical basis to characterize networks in the presence of uncertain interactions. We develop a method that accurately describes the degree distribution of such networks. We also extend our method to accurately compute the joint degree distributions of node pairs connected by edges. The number of possible network topologies grows exponentially with the number of uncertain interactions. However, the mathematical model we develop allows us to compute these degree distributions in polynomial time in the number of interactions. It also helps us find an adequate mathematical model using maximum likelihood estimation. Our results demonstrate that power law and log-normal models best describe degree distributions for probabilistic networks. The inverse correlation of degrees of neighboring nodes shows that, in probabilistic networks, nodes with large number of interactions prefer to interact with those with small number of interactions more frequently than expected.

A novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization.

PubMed

Bi, Ya

2015-01-01

Accurately planning the procurement volume is an effective measure for controlling the medicine inventory cost. Due to uncertain demand it is difficult to make accurate decision on procurement volume. As to the biomedicine sensitive to time and season demand, the uncertain demand fitted by the fuzzy mathematics method is obviously better than general random distribution functions. To establish a novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization. A novel optimal management and decision model under uncertain demand has been presented based on fuzzy mathematics and a new comprehensive improved particle swarm algorithm. The optimal management and decision model can effectively reduce the medicine inventory cost. The proposed improved particle swarm optimization is a simple and effective algorithm to improve the Fuzzy interference and hence effectively reduce the calculation complexity of the optimal management and decision model. Therefore the new model can be used for accurate decision on procurement volume under uncertain demand.

Optimal Decision Making in a Class of Uncertain Systems Based on Uncertain Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bubnicki, Z.

2006-06-01

The paper is concerned with a class of uncertain systems described by relational knowledge representations with unknown parameters which are assumed to be values of uncertain variables characterized by a user in the form of certainty distributions. The first part presents the basic optimization problem consisting in finding the decision maximizing the certainty index that the requirement given by a user is satisfied. The main part is devoted to the description of the optimization problem with the given certainty threshold. It is shown how the approach presented in the paper may be applied to some problems for anticipatory systems.

Altered brain activation and connectivity during anticipation of uncertain threat in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Geng, Haiyang; Wang, Yi; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yue-Jia; Xu, Pengfei; Huang, Yuxia; Li, Xuebing

2018-06-08

In the research field of anxiety, previous studies generally focus on emotional responses following threat. A recent model of anxiety proposes that altered anticipation prior to uncertain threat is related with the development of anxiety. Behavioral findings have built the relationship between anxiety and distinct anticipatory processes including attention, estimation of threat, and emotional responses. However, few studies have characterized the brain organization underlying anticipation of uncertain threat and its role in anxiety. In the present study, we used an emotional anticipation paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the aforementioned topics by employing brain activation and general psychophysiological interactions (gPPI) analysis. In the activation analysis, we found that high trait anxious individuals showed significantly increased activation in the thalamus, middle temporal gyrus (MTG), and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC), as well as decreased activation in the precuneus, during anticipation of uncertain threat compared to the certain condition. In the gPPI analysis, the key regions including the amygdala, dmPFC, and precuneus showed altered connections with distributed brain areas including the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), inferior parietal sulcus (IPS), insula, para-hippocampus gyrus (PHA), thalamus, and MTG involved in anticipation of uncertain threat in anxious individuals. Taken together, our findings indicate that during the anticipation of uncertain threat, anxious individuals showed altered activations and functional connectivity in widely distributed brain areas, which may be critical for abnormal perception, estimation, and emotion reactions during the anticipation of uncertain threat. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Thomas K., IV; Johnston, Christopher O.; Hosder, Serhat

2016-01-01

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

Robust DEA under discrete uncertain data: a case study of Iranian electricity distribution companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafezalkotob, Ashkan; Haji-Sami, Elham; Omrani, Hashem

2015-06-01

Crisp input and output data are fundamentally indispensable in traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA). However, the real-world problems often deal with imprecise or ambiguous data. In this paper, we propose a novel robust data envelopment model (RDEA) to investigate the efficiencies of decision-making units (DMU) when there are discrete uncertain input and output data. The method is based upon the discrete robust optimization approaches proposed by Mulvey et al. (1995) that utilizes probable scenarios to capture the effect of ambiguous data in the case study. Our primary concern in this research is evaluating electricity distribution companies under uncertainty about input/output data. To illustrate the ability of proposed model, a numerical example of 38 Iranian electricity distribution companies is investigated. There are a large amount ambiguous data about these companies. Some electricity distribution companies may not report clear and real statistics to the government. Thus, it is needed to utilize a prominent approach to deal with this uncertainty. The results reveal that the RDEA model is suitable and reliable for target setting based on decision makers (DM's) preferences when there are uncertain input/output data.

An efficient distribution method for nonlinear transport problems in highly heterogeneous stochastic porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahima, Fayadhoi; Meyer, Daniel; Tchelepi, Hamdi

2016-04-01

Because geophysical data are inexorably sparse and incomplete, stochastic treatments of simulated responses are crucial to explore possible scenarios and assess risks in subsurface problems. In particular, nonlinear two-phase flows in porous media are essential, yet challenging, in reservoir simulation and hydrology. Adding highly heterogeneous and uncertain input, such as the permeability and porosity fields, transforms the estimation of the flow response into a tough stochastic problem for which computationally expensive Monte Carlo (MC) simulations remain the preferred option.We propose an alternative approach to evaluate the probability distribution of the (water) saturation for the stochastic Buckley-Leverett problem when the probability distributions of the permeability and porosity fields are available. We give a computationally efficient and numerically accurate method to estimate the one-point probability density (PDF) and cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of the (water) saturation. The distribution method draws inspiration from a Lagrangian approach of the stochastic transport problem and expresses the saturation PDF and CDF essentially in terms of a deterministic mapping and the distribution and statistics of scalar random fields. In a large class of applications these random fields can be estimated at low computational costs (few MC runs), thus making the distribution method attractive. Even though the method relies on a key assumption of fixed streamlines, we show that it performs well for high input variances, which is the case of interest. Once the saturation distribution is determined, any one-point statistics thereof can be obtained, especially the saturation average and standard deviation. Moreover, the probability of rare events and saturation quantiles (e.g. P10, P50 and P90) can be efficiently derived from the distribution method. These statistics can then be used for risk assessment, as well as data assimilation and uncertainty reduction in the prior knowledge of input distributions. We provide various examples and comparisons with MC simulations to illustrate the performance of the method.

Evaluation of probabilistic flow in two unsaturated soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boateng, Samuel

2001-11-01

A variably saturated flow model is coupled to a first-order reliability algorithm to simulate unsaturated flow in two soils. The unsaturated soil properties are considered as uncertain variables with means, standard deviations, and marginal probability distributions. Thus, each simulation constitutes an unsaturated probability flow event. Sensitivities of the uncertain variables are estimated for each event. The unsaturated hydraulic properties of a fine-textured soil and a coarse-textured soil are used. The properties are based on the van Genuchten model. The flow domain has a recharge surface, a seepage boundary along the bottom, and a no-flow boundary along the sides. The uncertain variables are saturated water content, residual water content, van Genuchten model parameters alpha (α) and n, and saturated hydraulic conductivity. The objective is to evaluate the significance of each uncertain variable to the probabilistic flow. Under wet conditions, saturated water content and residual water content are the most significant uncertain variables in the sand. For dry conditions in the sand, however, the van Genuchten model parameters α and n are the most significant. Model parameter n and saturated hydraulic conductivity are the most significant for the wet clay loam. Saturated water content is most significant for the dry clay loam. Résumé. Un modèle d'écoulement variable en milieu saturé est couplé à un algorithme d'exactitude de premier ordre pour simuler les écoulements en milieu non saturé dans deux sols. Les propriétés des sols non saturés sont considérés comme des variables incertaines avec des moyennes, des écarts-types et des distributions de probabilité marginale. Ainsi chaque simulation constitue un événement d'écoulement non saturé probable. La sensibilité des variables incertaines est estimée pour chaque événement. Les propriétés hydrauliques non saturées d'un sol à texture fine et d'un sol à texture grossière sont utilisées. Les propriétés sont basées sur le modèle de van Genuchten. Le domaine d'écoulement possède une surface de recharge, une limite de fuite à sa base et des limites sans écoulement sur les côtés. Les variables incertaines sont la teneur en eau à saturation, la teneur en eau résiduelle, les paramètres alpha (α) et n du modèle de van Genuchten et la conductivité hydraulique à saturation. L'objectif est d'évaluer la signification de chacune des variables incertaines dans l'écoulement probabiliste. Dans des conditions humides, la teneur en eau à saturation et la teneur en eau résiduelle sont les variables incertaines les plus significatives dans le sable. Toutefois, dans des conditions sèches dans le sable, les paramètres α et n du modèle de van Genuchten sont les plus significatifs. Le paramètre n du modèle et la conductivité hydraulique à saturation sont les plus significatifs pour un sol argileux humide. La teneur en eau à saturation est très significative pour le sol argileux sec. Resumen. Se ha acoplado un modelo de flujo de saturación variable con un algoritmo de fiabilidad de primer orden con el fin de simular el flujo no saturado en dos tipos de suelos. Se ha tratado las propiedades del suelo no saturado como variables inciertas, a las que se asigna las medias, desviaciones estándar y distribuciones de probabilidad marginal correspondientes. Así, cada simulación constituye un evento probabilístico de flujo no saturado y la sensibilidad de las variables inciertas es estimada para cada evento. Se ha utilizado las propiedades de la conductividad hidráulica no saturada de dos suelos con dos tipos de textura - fina y gruesa - mediante el modelo de van Genuchten. El dominio de flujo está delimitado por una superficie de recarga, base de goteo y contornos laterales de flujo nulo. Las variables inciertas son el contenido de agua residual, el de saturación, los parámetros del modelo de van Genuchten (α y n) y la conductividad hidráulica saturada. El objetivo era evaluar la contribución de cada variable incierta al flujo probabilístico. Para arenas, las variables inciertas más importantes, en condiciones de humedad, son el contenido de agua residual y el de saturación en ausencia de humedad, lo son ambos parámetros del modelo de van Genuchten. Para margas arcillosas, las variables más significativas en condiciones húmedas son el parámetro n y la conductividad hidráulica saturada; en condiciones secas, el contenido de agua en saturación.

Intricate Valley Glaciers on Pluto

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-09-17

The backlighting highlights the intricate flow lines on the glaciers. The flow front of the ice is moving into the informally named Sputnik Planum. The origin of the ridges and pits on the right side of the image remains uncertain. This image is 390 miles (630 kilometers) across. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19943

Distributed control systems with incomplete and uncertain information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingpeng

Scientific and engineering advances in wireless communication, sensors, propulsion, and other areas are rapidly making it possible to develop unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) with sophisticated capabilities. UAVs have come to the forefront as tools for airborne reconnaissance to search for, detect, and destroy enemy targets in relatively complex environments. They potentially reduce risk to human life, are cost effective, and are superior to manned aircraft for certain types of missions. It is desirable for UAVs to have a high level of intelligent autonomy to carry out mission tasks with little external supervision and control. This raises important issues involving tradeoffs between centralized control and the associated potential to optimize mission plans, and decentralized control with great robustness and the potential to adapt to changing conditions. UAV capabilities have been extended several ways through armament (e.g., Hellfire missiles on Predator UAVs), increased endurance and altitude (e.g., Global Hawk), and greater autonomy. Some known barriers to full-scale implementation of UAVs are increased communication and control requirements as well as increased platform and system complexity. One of the key problems is how UAV systems can handle incomplete and uncertain information in dynamic environments. Especially when the system is composed of heterogeneous and distributed UAVs, the overall system complexity is increased under such conditions. Presented through the use of published papers, this dissertation lays the groundwork for the study of methodologies for handling incomplete and uncertain information for distributed control systems. An agent-based simulation framework is built to investigate mathematical approaches (optimization) and emergent intelligence approaches. The first paper provides a mathematical approach for systems of UAVs to handle incomplete and uncertain information. The second paper describes an emergent intelligence approach for UAVs, again in handling incomplete and uncertain information. The third paper combines mathematical and emergent intelligence approaches.

Non-fragile observer-based output feedback control for polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Kaiqun; Song, Yan; Zhang, Sunjie; Zhong, Zhaozhun

2017-07-01

In this paper, a non-fragile observer-based output feedback control problem for the polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control (MPC) approach is discussed. By decomposing the global system into some subsystems, the computation complexity is reduced, so it follows that the online designing time can be saved.Moreover, an observer-based output feedback control algorithm is proposed in the framework of distributed MPC to deal with the difficulties in obtaining the states measurements. In this way, the presented observer-based output-feedback MPC strategy is more flexible and applicable in practice than the traditional state-feedback one. What is more, the non-fragility of the controller has been taken into consideration in favour of increasing the robustness of the polytopic uncertain system. After that, a sufficient stability criterion is presented by using Lyapunov-like functional approach, meanwhile, the corresponding control law and the upper bound of the quadratic cost function are derived by solving an optimisation subject to convex constraints. Finally, some simulation examples are employed to show the effectiveness of the method.

Probability modeling of high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanling; Li, Zhanjie; Li, Chengcheng

2014-05-01

Probability modeling of hydrological extremes is one of the major research areas in hydrological science. Most basins in humid and semi-humid south and east of China are concerned for probability modeling analysis of high flow extremes. While, for the inland river basin which occupies about 35% of the country area, there is a limited presence of such studies partly due to the limited data availability and a relatively low mean annual flow. The objective of this study is to carry out probability modeling of high flow extremes in the upper reach of Heihe River basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, by using the peak over threshold (POT) method and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), in which the selection of threshold and inherent assumptions for POT series are elaborated in details. For comparison, other widely used probability distributions including generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal, Log-logistic and Gamma are employed as well. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimations. Daily flow data at Yingluoxia station from 1978 to 2008 are used. Results show that, synthesizing the approaches of mean excess plot, stability features of model parameters, return level plot and the inherent independence assumption of POT series, an optimum threshold of 340m3/s is finally determined for high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed. The resulting POT series is proved to be stationary and independent based on Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test and autocorrelation test. In terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test and several graphical diagnostics such as quantile and cumulative density function plots, GPD provides the best fit to high flow extremes in the study area. The estimated high flows for long return periods demonstrate that, as the return period increasing, the return level estimates are probably more uncertain. The frequency of high flow extremes exhibits a very slight but not significant decreasing trend from 1978 to 2008, while the intensity of such flow extremes is comparatively increasing especially for the higher return levels.

Uncertainty quantification tools for multiphase gas-solid flow simulations using MFIX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, Rodney O.; Passalacqua, Alberto

2016-02-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely studied and used in the scientific community and in the industry. Various models were proposed to solve problems in different areas. However, all models deviate from reality. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) process evaluates the overall uncertainties associated with the prediction of quantities of interest. In particular it studies the propagation of input uncertainties to the outputs of the models so that confidence intervals can be provided for the simulation results. In the present work, a non-intrusive quadrature-based uncertainty quantification (QBUQ) approach is proposed. The probability distribution function (PDF) of the system response can bemore » then reconstructed using extended quadrature method of moments (EQMOM) and extended conditional quadrature method of moments (ECQMOM). The report first explains the theory of QBUQ approach, including methods to generate samples for problems with single or multiple uncertain input parameters, low order statistics, and required number of samples. Then methods for univariate PDF reconstruction (EQMOM) and multivariate PDF reconstruction (ECQMOM) are explained. The implementation of QBUQ approach into the open-source CFD code MFIX is discussed next. At last, QBUQ approach is demonstrated in several applications. The method is first applied to two examples: a developing flow in a channel with uncertain viscosity, and an oblique shock problem with uncertain upstream Mach number. The error in the prediction of the moment response is studied as a function of the number of samples, and the accuracy of the moments required to reconstruct the PDF of the system response is discussed. The QBUQ approach is then demonstrated by considering a bubbling fluidized bed as example application. The mean particle size is assumed to be the uncertain input parameter. The system is simulated with a standard two-fluid model with kinetic theory closures for the particulate phase implemented into MFIX. The effect of uncertainty on the disperse-phase volume fraction, on the phase velocities and on the pressure drop inside the fluidized bed are examined, and the reconstructed PDFs are provided for the three quantities studied. Then the approach is applied to a bubbling fluidized bed with two uncertain parameters, particle-particle and particle-wall restitution coefficients. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities and gas pressure are provided. The PDFs of the response are reconstructed using EQMOM with appropriate kernel density functions. The simulation results are compared to experimental data provided by the 2013 NETL small-scale challenge problem. Lastly, the proposed procedure is demonstrated by considering a riser of a circulating fluidized bed as an example application. The mean particle size is considered to be the uncertain input parameter. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities, and granular temperature are provided. Mean values and confidence intervals of the quantities of interest are compared to the experiment results. The univariate and bivariate PDF reconstructions of the system response are performed using EQMOM and ECQMOM.« less

Decisions with Uncertain Consequences—A Total Ordering on Loss-Distributions

PubMed Central

König, Sandra; Schauer, Stefan

2016-01-01

Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action can be modeled by a random variable, then the decision problem boils down to comparing different effects (random variables) by comparing their distribution functions. Although the full space of probability distributions cannot be ordered, a properly restricted subset of distributions can be totally ordered in a practically meaningful way. We call these loss-distributions, since they provide a substitute for the concept of loss-functions in decision theory. This article introduces the theory behind the necessary restrictions and the hereby constructible total ordering on random loss variables, which enables decisions under uncertainty of consequences. Using data obtained from simulations, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our approach. PMID:28030572

Unbiased multi-fidelity estimate of failure probability of a free plane jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Alexandre; Kramer, Boris; Willcox, Karen; Peherstorfer, Benjamin

2017-11-01

Estimating failure probability related to fluid flows is a challenge because it requires a large number of evaluations of expensive models. We address this challenge by leveraging multiple low fidelity models of the flow dynamics to create an optimal unbiased estimator. In particular, we investigate the effects of uncertain inlet conditions in the width of a free plane jet. We classify a condition as failure when the corresponding jet width is below a small threshold, such that failure is a rare event (failure probability is smaller than 0.001). We estimate failure probability by combining the frameworks of multi-fidelity importance sampling and optimal fusion of estimators. Multi-fidelity importance sampling uses a low fidelity model to explore the parameter space and create a biasing distribution. An unbiased estimate is then computed with a relatively small number of evaluations of the high fidelity model. In the presence of multiple low fidelity models, this framework offers multiple competing estimators. Optimal fusion combines all competing estimators into a single estimator with minimal variance. We show that this combined framework can significantly reduce the cost of estimating failure probabilities, and thus can have a large impact in fluid flow applications. This work was funded by DARPA.

Synoptic Sampling to Determine Distributed Groundwater-Surface Water Nitrate Loading and Removal Potential Along a Lowland River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, Henry; Villamizar, Sandra R.; Harmon, Thomas C.

2017-11-01

Delineating pollutant reactive transport pathways that connect local land use patterns to surface water is an important goal. This work illustrates high-resolution river mapping of salinity or specific conductance (SC) and nitrate (NO3-) as a potential part of achieving this goal. We observed longitudinal river SC and nitrate distributions using high-resolution synoptic in situ sensing along the lower Merced River (38 river km) in Central California (USA) from 2010 to 2012. We calibrated a distributed groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) discharge model for a conservative solute using 13 synoptic SC sampling events at flows ranging from 1.3 to 31.6 m3 s-1. Nitrogen loads ranged from 0.3 to 1.6 kg N d-1 and were greater following an extended high flow period during a wet winter. Applying the distributed GW-SW discharge estimates to a simplistic reactive nitrate transport model, the model reproduced observed river nitrate distribution well (RRMSE = 5-21%), with dimensionless watershed-averaged nitrate removal (kt) ranging from 0 to 0.43. Estimates were uncertain due to GW nitrate data variability, but the resulting range was consistent with prior removal estimates. At the segment scale, estimated GW-SW nitrate loading ranged from 0 to 17 g NO3- s-1 km-1. Local loading peaked near the middle of the study reach, a location that coincides with a shallow clay lens and with confined animal feed operations in close proximity to the river. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential for high-resolution synoptic monitoring to support GW-SW modeling efforts aimed at understanding and managing nonpoint source pollution.

The direction of fluid flow during contact metamorphism of siliceous carbonate rocks: new data for the Monzoni and Predazzo aureoles, northern Italy, and a global review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferry, John M.; Wing, Boswell A.; Penniston-Dorland, Sarah C.; Rumble, Douglas

2002-03-01

Periclase formed in siliceous dolomitic marbles during contact metamorphism in the Monzoni and Predazzo aureoles, the Dolomites, northern Italy, by infiltration of the carbonate rocks by chemically reactive, H2O-rich fluids at 500 bar and 565-710 °C. The spatial distribution of periclase and oxygen isotope compositions is consistent with reactive fluid flow that was primarily vertical and upward in both aureoles with time-integrated flux ~5,000 and ~300 mol fluid/cm2 rock in the Monzoni and Predazzo aureoles, respectively. The new results for Monzoni and Predazzo are considered along with published studies of 13 other aureoles to draw general conclusions about the direction, amount, and controls on the geometry of reactive fluid flow during contact metamorphism of siliceous carbonate rocks. Flow in 12 aureoles was primarily vertically upward with and without a horizontal component directed away from the pluton. Fluid flow in two of the other three was primarily horizontal, directed from the pluton into the aureole. The direction of flow in the remaining aureole is uncertain. Earlier suggestions that fluid flow is often horizontal, directed toward the pluton, are likely explained by an erroneous assumption that widespread coexisting mineral reactants and products represent arrested prograde decarbonation reactions. With the exception of three samples from one aureole, time-integrated fluid flux was in the range 102-104 mol/cm2. Both the amount and direction of fluid flow are consistent with hydrodynamic models of contact metamorphism. The orientation of bedding and lithologic contacts appears to be the principal control over whether fluid flow was either primarily vertical or horizontal. Other pre-metamorphic structures, including dikes, faults, fold hinges, and fracture zones, served to channel fluid flow as well.

The direction of fluid flow during contact metamorphism of siliceous carbonate rocks: new data for the Monzoni and Predazzo aureoles, northern Italy, and a global review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferry, John; Wing, Boswell; Penniston-Dorland, Sarah; Rumble, Douglas

2001-11-01

Periclase formed in siliceous dolomitic marbles during contact metamorphism in the Monzoni and Predazzo aureoles, the Dolomites, northern Italy, by infiltration of the carbonate rocks by chemically reactive, H2O-rich fluids at 500 bar and 565-710 °C. The spatial distribution of periclase and oxygen isotope compositions is consistent with reactive fluid flow that was primarily vertical and upward in both aureoles with time-integrated flux 5,000 and 300 mol fluid/cm2 rock in the Monzoni and Predazzo aureoles, respectively. The new results for Monzoni and Predazzo are considered along with published studies of 13 other aureoles to draw general conclusions about the direction, amount, and controls on the geometry of reactive fluid flow during contact metamorphism of siliceous carbonate rocks. Flow in 12 aureoles was primarily vertically upward with and without a horizontal component directed away from the pluton. Fluid flow in two of the other three was primarily horizontal, directed from the pluton into the aureole. The direction of flow in the remaining aureole is uncertain. Earlier suggestions that fluid flow is often horizontal, directed toward the pluton, are likely explained by an erroneous assumption that widespread coexisting mineral reactants and products represent arrested prograde decarbonation reactions. With the exception of three samples from one aureole, time-integrated fluid flux was in the range 102-104 mol/cm2. Both the amount and direction of fluid flow are consistent with hydrodynamic models of contact metamorphism. The orientation of bedding and lithologic contacts appears to be the principal control over whether fluid flow was either primarily vertical or horizontal. Other pre-metamorphic structures, including dikes, faults, fold hinges, and fracture zones, served to channel fluid flow as well.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-01-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-07-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

Gaussian copula as a likelihood function for environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wani, O.; Espadas, G.; Cecinati, F.; Rieckermann, J.

2017-12-01

Parameter estimation of environmental models always comes with uncertainty. To formally quantify this parametric uncertainty, a likelihood function needs to be formulated, which is defined as the probability of observations given fixed values of the parameter set. A likelihood function allows us to infer parameter values from observations using Bayes' theorem. The challenge is to formulate a likelihood function that reliably describes the error generating processes which lead to the observed monitoring data, such as rainfall and runoff. If the likelihood function is not representative of the error statistics, the parameter inference will give biased parameter values. Several uncertainty estimation methods that are currently being used employ Gaussian processes as a likelihood function, because of their favourable analytical properties. Box-Cox transformation is suggested to deal with non-symmetric and heteroscedastic errors e.g. for flow data which are typically more uncertain in high flows than in periods with low flows. Problem with transformations is that the results are conditional on hyper-parameters, for which it is difficult to formulate the analyst's belief a priori. In an attempt to address this problem, in this research work we suggest learning the nature of the error distribution from the errors made by the model in the "past" forecasts. We use a Gaussian copula to generate semiparametric error distributions . 1) We show that this copula can be then used as a likelihood function to infer parameters, breaking away from the practice of using multivariate normal distributions. Based on the results from a didactical example of predicting rainfall runoff, 2) we demonstrate that the copula captures the predictive uncertainty of the model. 3) Finally, we find that the properties of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of errors are captured well by the copula, eliminating the need to use transforms. In summary, our findings suggest that copulas are an interesting departure from the usage of fully parametric distributions as likelihood functions - and they could help us to better capture the statistical properties of errors and make more reliable predictions.

Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model calibration was tested by comparing the manual calibration approach with automatic calibrations of the VHM model based on different objective functions. The calibration approach did not significantly alter the model results for peak flow, but the low flow projections were again highly influenced. Model choice as well as calibration strategy hence have a critical impact on low flows, more than on peak flows. These results highlight the high uncertainty in low flow modelling, especially in a climate change context.

Natural recharge estimation and uncertainty analysis of an adjudicated groundwater basin using a regional-scale flow and subsidence model (Antelope Valley, California, USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Siade, Adam J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Martin, Peter

2015-01-01

Groundwater has provided 50–90 % of the total water supply in Antelope Valley, California (USA). The associated groundwater-level declines have led the Los Angeles County Superior Court of California to recently rule that the Antelope Valley groundwater basin is in overdraft, i.e., annual pumpage exceeds annual recharge. Natural recharge consists primarily of mountain-front recharge and is an important component of the total groundwater budget in Antelope Valley. Therefore, natural recharge plays a major role in the Court’s decision. The exact quantity and distribution of natural recharge is uncertain, with total estimates from previous studies ranging from 37 to 200 gigaliters per year (GL/year). In order to better understand the uncertainty associated with natural recharge and to provide a tool for groundwater management, a numerical model of groundwater flow and land subsidence was developed. The transient model was calibrated using PEST with water-level and subsidence data; prior information was incorporated through the use of Tikhonov regularization. The calibrated estimate of natural recharge was 36 GL/year, which is appreciably less than the value used by the court (74 GL/year). The effect of parameter uncertainty on the estimation of natural recharge was addressed using the Null-Space Monte Carlo method. A Pareto trade-off method was also used to portray the reasonableness of larger natural recharge rates. The reasonableness of the 74 GL/year value and the effect of uncertain pumpage rates were also evaluated. The uncertainty analyses indicate that the total natural recharge likely ranges between 34.5 and 54.3 GL/year.

Water Footprint and Water Consumption for the Main Crops and Biofuels Produced in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

2011-12-01

The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Uncertainty Quantification and Risk Mitigation of CO2 Leakage in Groundwater Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

2013-12-01

The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Uncertainty Quantification of Turbulence Model Closure Coefficients for Transonic Wall-Bounded Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaefer, John; West, Thomas; Hosder, Serhat; Rumsey, Christopher; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Kleb, William

2015-01-01

The goal of this work was to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of commonly used turbulence models in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes codes due to uncertainty in the values of closure coefficients for transonic, wall-bounded flows and to rank the contribution of each coefficient to uncertainty in various output flow quantities of interest. Specifically, uncertainty quantification of turbulence model closure coefficients was performed for transonic flow over an axisymmetric bump at zero degrees angle of attack and the RAE 2822 transonic airfoil at a lift coefficient of 0.744. Three turbulence models were considered: the Spalart-Allmaras Model, Wilcox (2006) k-w Model, and the Menter Shear-Stress Trans- port Model. The FUN3D code developed by NASA Langley Research Center was used as the flow solver. The uncertainty quantification analysis employed stochastic expansions based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos as an efficient means of uncertainty propagation. Several integrated and point-quantities are considered as uncertain outputs for both CFD problems. All closure coefficients were treated as epistemic uncertain variables represented with intervals. Sobol indices were used to rank the relative contributions of each closure coefficient to the total uncertainty in the output quantities of interest. This study identified a number of closure coefficients for each turbulence model for which more information will reduce the amount of uncertainty in the output significantly for transonic, wall-bounded flows.

Cutting Force Predication Based on Integration of Symmetric Fuzzy Number and Finite Element Method

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhanli; Hu, Yanjuan; Wang, Yao; Dong, Chao; Pang, Zaixiang

2014-01-01

In the process of turning, pointing at the uncertain phenomenon of cutting which is caused by the disturbance of random factors, for determining the uncertain scope of cutting force, the integrated symmetric fuzzy number and the finite element method (FEM) are used in the prediction of cutting force. The method used symmetric fuzzy number to establish fuzzy function between cutting force and three factors and obtained the uncertain interval of cutting force by linear programming. At the same time, the change curve of cutting force with time was directly simulated by using thermal-mechanical coupling FEM; also the nonuniform stress field and temperature distribution of workpiece, tool, and chip under the action of thermal-mechanical coupling were simulated. The experimental result shows that the method is effective for the uncertain prediction of cutting force. PMID:24790556

Comparison of hydrodynamic and semi-kinetic treatments for plasma flow along closed field lines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Nagendra; Wilson, G. R.; Horwitz, J. L.

1993-01-01

Hydrodynamic and semi-kinetic treatments of plasma flow along closed geomagnetic field lines are compared. The hydrodynamic treatment is based on a simplified 16-moment set of transport equations as the equations for the heat flows are not solved; the heat flows are treated heuristically. The semi-kinetic treatment is based on a particle code. The comparison deals with the distributions of the plasma density, flow velocity, and parallel and perpendicular temperatures as obtained from the two treatments during the various stages of the flow. In the kinetic treatment, the appropriate boundary condition is the prescription of the velocity distribution functions for the particles entering the flux tubes at the ionospheric boundaries; those particles leaving the system are determined by the processes occurring in the flux tube. The prescribed distributions are half-Maxwellian with temperature T(sub 0) and density n(sub 0). In the hydrodynamic model, the prescribed boundary conditions are on density (n(sub 0)), flow velocity (V(sub 0)) and temperature (T(sub 0). It was found that results from the hydrodynamic treatment critically depend on V(sub 0); for early stages of the flow this treatment yields results in good agreement with those from the kinetic treatment, when V(sub 0) = square root of (kT(sub 0)/2 (pi)m), which is the average velocity of particles moving in a given direction for a Maxwellian distribution. During this early stage, the flows developing form the conjugate ionospheres show some distinct transitions. For the first hour or so, the flows are highly supersonic and penetrate deep into the opposite hemispheres, and both hydrodynamics and kinetic treatments yield almost similar features. It is found that during this period heatflow effects are negligibly small. When a flow penetrates deep into the opposite hemisphere, the kinetic treatment predicts reflection and setting up of counterstreaming. In contrast, the hydrodynamic treatment yields a shock in the flow. The reasons for this difference in the two treatments is discussed, showing that in view of the relatively warm ions, the coupling of ion beams and the consequent shock formation in the offequatorial region are not likely due to the enhancements in the beam temperatures. The counterstreaming in the kinetic treatment and the shock in the hydrodynamic treatment first advance upward to the equator and then downward to the ionospheric boundary from where the flow originated. The transit time for this advancement is found to be about 1 hour for the respective models. After 2 hours or so, both models predict that the flows from the ionospheric boundaries are generally subsonic with respect to the local ion-sound speed. At late stages of the flow, when a substantial fraction of ions entering the flux tube begin to return back in the kinetic treatment, the hydrodynamic treatment with the boundary condition V(sub 0) = square root of (kT(sub 0)/2(pi)m) yields an over-refilling, and the choice of V(sub 0) becomes uncertain.

Assessing risk based on uncertain avalanche activity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeidler, Antonia; Fromm, Reinhard

2015-04-01

Avalanches may affect critical infrastructure and may cause great economic losses. The planning horizon of infrastructures, e.g. hydropower generation facilities, reaches well into the future. Based on the results of previous studies on the effect of changing meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature) and the effect on avalanche activity we assume that there will be a change of the risk pattern in future. The decision makers need to understand what the future might bring to best formulate their mitigation strategies. Therefore, we explore a commercial risk software to calculate risk for the coming years that might help in decision processes. The software @risk, is known to many larger companies, and therefore we explore its capabilities to include avalanche risk simulations in order to guarantee a comparability of different risks. In a first step, we develop a model for a hydropower generation facility that reflects the problem of changing avalanche activity patterns in future by selecting relevant input parameters and assigning likely probability distributions. The uncertain input variables include the probability of avalanches affecting an object, the vulnerability of an object, the expected costs for repairing the object and the expected cost due to interruption. The crux is to find the distribution that best represents the input variables under changing meteorological conditions. Our focus is on including the uncertain probability of avalanches based on the analysis of past avalanche data and expert knowledge. In order to explore different likely outcomes we base the analysis on three different climate scenarios (likely, worst case, baseline). For some variables, it is possible to fit a distribution to historical data, whereas in cases where the past dataset is insufficient or not available the software allows to select from over 30 different distribution types. The Monte Carlo simulation uses the probability distribution of uncertain variables using all valid combinations of the values of input variables to simulate all possible outcomes. In our case the output is the expected risk (Euro/year) for each object (e.g. water intake) considered and the entire hydropower generation system. The output is again a distribution that is interpreted by the decision makers as the final strategy depends on the needs and requirements of the end-user, which may be driven by personal preferences. In this presentation, we will show a way on how we used the uncertain information on avalanche activity in future to subsequently use it in a commercial risk software and therefore bringing the knowledge of natural hazard experts to decision makers.

Distributed adaptive asymptotically consensus tracking control of uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Wen, Changyun; Huang, Jiangshuai; Fan, Huijin

2017-11-01

In this paper, a backstepping based distributed adaptive control scheme is proposed for multiple uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition. The common desired trajectory is allowed totally unknown by part of the subsystems and the linearly parameterized trajectory model assumed in currently available results is no longer needed. To compensate the effects due to unknown trajectory information, a smooth function of consensus errors and certain positive integrable functions are introduced in designing virtual control inputs. Besides, to overcome the difficulty of completely counteracting the coupling terms of distributed consensus errors and parameter estimation errors in the presence of asymmetric Laplacian matrix, extra information transmission of local parameter estimates are introduced among linked subsystem and adaptive gain technique is adopted to generate distributed torque inputs. It is shown that with the proposed distributed adaptive control scheme, global uniform boundedness of all the closed-loop signals and asymptotically output consensus tracking can be achieved. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design and Analysis of AN Static Aeroelastic Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Ying-Yu; Yuan, Kai-Hua; Lv, Ji-Nan; Liu, Zi-Qiang

2016-06-01

Static aeroelastic experiments are very common in the United States and Russia. The objective of static aeroelastic experiments is to investigate deformation and loads of elastic structure in flow field. Generally speaking, prerequisite of this experiment is that the stiffness distribution of structure is known. This paper describes a method for designing experimental models, in the case where the stiffness distribution and boundary condition of a real aircraft are both uncertain. The stiffness distribution form of the structure can be calculated via finite element modeling and simulation calculation and F141 steels and rigid foam are used to make elastic model. In this paper, the design and manufacturing process of static aeroelastic models is presented and a set of experiment model was designed to simulate the stiffness of the designed wings, a set of experiments was designed to check the results. The test results show that the experimental method can effectively complete the design work of elastic model. This paper introduces the whole process of the static aeroelastic experiment, and the experimental results are analyzed. This paper developed a static aeroelasticity experiment technique and established an experiment model targeting at the swept wing of a certain kind of large aspect ratio aircraft.

Quantification of Uncertainty in the Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasiapillai Sudalaimuthu, K.; He, J.; Swami, D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is usually carried out for planning and designing of water resources and hydraulic structures. Owing to the existence of variability in sample representation, selection of distribution and estimation of distribution parameters, the estimation of flood quantile has been always uncertain. Hence, suitable approaches must be developed to quantify the uncertainty in the form of prediction interval as an alternate to deterministic approach. The developed framework in the present study to include uncertainty in the FFA discusses a multi-objective optimization approach to construct the prediction interval using ensemble of flood quantile. Through this approach, an optimal variability of distribution parameters is identified to carry out FFA. To demonstrate the proposed approach, annual maximum flow data from two gauge stations (Bow river at Calgary and Banff, Canada) are used. The major focus of the present study was to evaluate the changes in magnitude of flood quantiles due to the recent extreme flood event occurred during the year 2013. In addition, the efficacy of the proposed method was further verified using standard bootstrap based sampling approaches and found that the proposed method is reliable in modeling extreme floods as compared to the bootstrap methods.

A three-dimensional stratigraphic model for aggrading submarine channels based on laboratory experiments, numerical modeling, and sediment cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limaye, A. B.; Komatsu, Y.; Suzuki, K.; Paola, C.

2017-12-01

Turbidity currents deliver clastic sediment from continental margins to the deep ocean, and are the main driver of landscape and stratigraphic evolution in many low-relief, submarine environments. The sedimentary architecture of turbidites—including the spatial organization of coarse and fine sediments—is closely related to the aggradation, scour, and lateral shifting of channels. Seismic stratigraphy indicates that submarine, meandering channels often aggrade rapidly relative to lateral shifting, and develop channel sand bodies with high vertical connectivity. In comparison, the stratigraphic architecture developed by submarine, braided is relatively uncertain. We present a new stratigraphic model for submarine braided channels that integrates predictions from laboratory experiments and flow modeling with constraints from sediment cores. In the laboratory experiments, a saline density current developed subaqueous channels in plastic sediment. The channels aggraded to form a deposit with a vertical scale of approximately five channel depths. We collected topography data during aggradation to (1) establish relative stratigraphic age, and (2) estimate the sorting patterns of a hypothetical grain size distribution. We applied a numerical flow model to each topographic surface and used modeled flow depth as a proxy for relative grain size. We then conditioned the resulting stratigraphic model to observed grain size distributions using sediment core data from the Nankai Trough, offshore Japan. Using this stratigraphic model, we establish new, quantitative predictions for the two- and three-dimensional connectivity of coarse sediment as a function of fine-sediment fraction. Using this case study as an example, we will highlight outstanding challenges in relating the evolution of low-relief landscapes to the stratigraphic record.

Genetic Connectivity among and Self-Replenishment within Island Populations of a Restricted Range Subtropical Reef Fish

PubMed Central

van der Meer, Martin H.; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Jones, Geoffrey P.; van Herwerden, Lynne

2012-01-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly being advocated and implemented to protect biodiversity on coral reefs. Networks of appropriately sized and spaced reserves can capture a high proportion of species diversity, with gene flow among reserves presumed to promote long term resilience of populations to spatially variable threats. However, numerically rare small range species distributed among isolated locations appear to be at particular risk of extinction and the likely benefits of MPA networks are uncertain. Here we use mitochondrial and microsatellite data to infer evolutionary and contemporary gene flow among isolated locations as well as levels of self-replenishment within locations of the endemic anemonefish Amphiprion mccullochi, restricted to three MPA offshore reefs in subtropical East Australia. We infer high levels of gene flow and genetic diversity among locations over evolutionary time, but limited contemporary gene flow amongst locations and high levels of self-replenishment (68 to 84%) within locations over contemporary time. While long distance dispersal explained the species’ integrity in the past, high levels of self-replenishment suggest locations are predominantly maintained by local replenishment. Should local extinction occur, contemporary rescue effects through large scale connectivity are unlikely. For isolated islands with large numbers of endemic species, and high local replenishment, there is a high premium on local species-specific management actions. PMID:23185398

Optimal Output of Distributed Generation Based On Complex Power Increment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Bao, H.

2017-12-01

In order to meet the growing demand for electricity and improve the cleanliness of power generation, new energy generation, represented by wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, etc has been widely used. The new energy power generation access to distribution network in the form of distributed generation, consumed by local load. However, with the increase of the scale of distribution generation access to the network, the optimization of its power output is becoming more and more prominent, which needs further study. Classical optimization methods often use extended sensitivity method to obtain the relationship between different power generators, but ignore the coupling parameter between nodes makes the results are not accurate; heuristic algorithm also has defects such as slow calculation speed, uncertain outcomes. This article proposes a method called complex power increment, the essence of this method is the analysis of the power grid under steady power flow. After analyzing the results we can obtain the complex scaling function equation between the power supplies, the coefficient of the equation is based on the impedance parameter of the network, so the description of the relation of variables to the coefficients is more precise Thus, the method can accurately describe the power increment relationship, and can obtain the power optimization scheme more accurately and quickly than the extended sensitivity method and heuristic method.

Connectivity-Preserving Approach for Distributed Adaptive Synchronized Tracking of Networked Uncertain Nonholonomic Mobile Robots.

PubMed

Yoo, Sung Jin; Park, Bong Seok

2017-09-06

This paper addresses a distributed connectivity-preserving synchronized tracking problem of multiple uncertain nonholonomic mobile robots with limited communication ranges. The information of the time-varying leader robot is assumed to be accessible to only a small fraction of follower robots. The main contribution of this paper is to introduce a new distributed nonlinear error surface for dealing with both the synchronized tracking and the preservation of the initial connectivity patterns among nonholonomic robots. Based on this nonlinear error surface, the recursive design methodology is presented to construct the approximation-based local adaptive tracking scheme at the robot dynamic level. Furthermore, a technical lemma is established to analyze the stability and the connectivity preservation of the total closed-loop control system in the Lyapunov sense. An example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Interaction between ground water and surface water in Taylor Slough and vicinity, Everglades National Park, South Florida; study methods and appendixes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, Judson W.; Jackson, J.M.; Mooney, R.H.; Choi, Jungyill

2000-01-01

The data presented in this report are products of an investigation that quantified interactions between ground water and surface water in Taylor Slough in Everglades National Park. Determining the extent of hydrologic interactions between wetland surface water and ground water in Taylor Slough is important because the balance of freshwater flow in the lower part of the Slough is uncertain. Although freshwater flows through Taylor Slough are quite small in comparison to Shark Slough (the larger of the two major sloughs in Everglades National Park), flows through Taylor Slough are especially important to the ecology of estuarine mangrove embayments of northeastern Florida Bay. Also, wetland and ground- water interactions must be quantified if their role in affecting water quality is to be determined. In order to define basic hydrologic characteristics of the wetland, depth of wetland peat was mapped, and hydraulic conductivity and vertical hydraulic gradients in peat were determined. During specific time periods representing both wet and dry conditions in the area, the distribution of major ions, nutrients, and water stable isotopes throughout the slough were determined. The purpose of chemical measurements was to identify an environmental tracer could be used to quantify ground-water discharge.

The use of simulation and multiple environmental tracers to quantify groundwater flow in a shallow aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reilly, Thomas E.; Plummer, Niel; Phillips, Patrick J.; Busenberg, Eurybiades

1994-01-01

Measurements of the concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), tritium, and other environmental tracers can be used to calculate recharge ages of shallow groundwater and estimate rates of groundwater movement. Numerical simulation also provides quantitative estimates of flow rates, flow paths, and mixing properties of the groundwater system. The environmental tracer techniques and the hydraulic analyses each contribute to the understanding and quantification of the flow of shallow groundwater. However, when combined, the two methods provide feedback that improves the quantification of the flow system and provides insight into the processes that are the most uncertain. A case study near Locust Grove, Maryland, is used to investigate the utility of combining groundwater age dating, based on CFCs and tritium, and hydraulic analyses using numerical simulation techniques. The results of the feedback between an advective transport model and the estimates of groundwater ages determined by the CFCs improve a quantitative description of the system by refining the system conceptualization and estimating system parameters. The plausible system developed with this feedback between the advective flow model and the CFC ages is further tested using a solute transport simulation to reproduce the observed tritium distribution in the groundwater. The solute transport simulation corroborates the plausible system developed and also indicates that, for the system under investigation with the data obtained from 0.9-m-long (3-foot-long) well screens, the hydrodynamic dispersion is negligible. Together the two methods enable a coherent explanation of the flow paths and rates of movement while indicating weaknesses in the understanding of the system that will require future data collection and conceptual refinement of the groundwater system.

Role of dielectric constant in electrohydrodynamics of conducting fluids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhodes, Percy H.; Snyder, Robert S.; Roberts, Glyn O.

1992-01-01

Electrohydrodynamic (EHD) flows are driven by the interaction of an electric field with variations in electric conductivity or dielectric constant. In reported EHD experiments on the deformation of drops of immiscible dielectric fluids, the role of conductivity has tended to overshadow the role of dielectric constant. Often, large conductivity contrasts were convenient because the conductivities of the dielectric fluid were relatively uncertain. As a result, the observed effects were always qualitatively the same as if there had been no contrast in dielectric constant. Our early experiments studying the EHC deformations of cylindrical streams readily showed the conductivity effect but the dielectric constant effect was not discernible. We have modified our flow chamber and improved our method of observation and can now see an unequivocal dielectric constant effect which is in agreement with the prior theory. In this paper we first give a brief description of the physics of charge buildup at the interface of an immersed spherical drop or flowing cylindrical sample stream and then show how these charge distributions lead to interface distortions and accompanying viscous flows which constitute EHD. We next review theory and experiment describing the deformation of spherical drops. We show that in the reported drop deformation experiments, the contrast in dielectric constant was never sufficient to reverse the deformation due to the conductivity contrast. We review our work describing the deformation of a cylindrical stream of one fluid flowing in a parallel flow of another, and we compare the deformation equations with those for spherical drops. Finally, we show a definite experimental dielectric constant effect for cylindrical stream of aqueous polystyrene latex suspension. The dielectric constant varies with the frequency of the imposed electric field, and the associated EHD flow change is very apparent.

Tendency to occupy a statistically dominant spatial state of the flow as a driving force for turbulent transition.

PubMed

Chekmarev, Sergei F

2013-03-01

The transition from laminar to turbulent fluid motion occurring at large Reynolds numbers is generally associated with the instability of the laminar flow. On the other hand, since the turbulent flow characteristically appears in the form of spatially localized structures (e.g., eddies) filling the flow field, a tendency to occupy such a structured state of the flow cannot be ruled out as a driving force for turbulent transition. To examine this possibility, we propose a simple analytical model that treats the flow as a collection of localized spatial structures, each of which consists of elementary cells in which the behavior of the particles (atoms or molecules) is uncorrelated. This allows us to introduce the Reynolds number, associating it with the ratio between the total phase volume for the system and that for the elementary cell. Using the principle of maximum entropy to calculate the most probable size distribution of the localized structures, we show that as the Reynolds number increases, the elementary cells group into the localized structures, which successfully explains turbulent transition and some other general properties of turbulent flows. An important feature of the present model is that a bridge between the spatial-statistical description of the flow and hydrodynamic equations is established. We show that the basic assumptions underlying the model, i.e., that the particles are indistinguishable and elementary volumes of phase space exist in which the state of the particles is uncertain, are involved in the derivation of the Navier-Stokes equation. Taking into account that the model captures essential features of turbulent flows, this suggests that the driving force for the turbulent transition is basically the same as in the present model, i.e., the tendency of the system to occupy a statistically dominant state plays a key role. The instability of the flow at high Reynolds numbers can then be a mechanism to initiate structural rearrangement of the flow to find this state.

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong; ...

2016-12-08

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

Distributed neural network control for adaptive synchronization of uncertain dynamical multiagent systems.

PubMed

Peng, Zhouhua; Wang, Dan; Zhang, Hongwei; Sun, Gang

2014-08-01

This paper addresses the leader-follower synchronization problem of uncertain dynamical multiagent systems with nonlinear dynamics. Distributed adaptive synchronization controllers are proposed based on the state information of neighboring agents. The control design is developed for both undirected and directed communication topologies without requiring the accurate model of each agent. This result is further extended to the output feedback case where a neighborhood observer is proposed based on relative output information of neighboring agents. Then, distributed observer-based synchronization controllers are derived and a parameter-dependent Riccati inequality is employed to prove the stability. This design has a favorable decouple property between the observer and the controller designs for nonlinear multiagent systems. For both cases, the developed controllers guarantee that the state of each agent synchronizes to that of the leader with bounded residual errors. Two illustrative examples validate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Mixed H2/H∞ distributed robust model predictive control for polytopic uncertain systems subject to actuator saturation and missing measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yan; Fang, Xiaosheng; Diao, Qingda

2016-03-01

In this paper, we discuss the mixed H2/H∞ distributed robust model predictive control problem for polytopic uncertain systems subject to randomly occurring actuator saturation and packet loss. The global system is decomposed into several subsystems, and all the subsystems are connected by a fixed topology network, which is the definition for the packet loss among the subsystems. To better use the successfully transmitted information via Internet, both the phenomena of actuator saturation and packet loss resulting from the limitation of the communication bandwidth are taken into consideration. A novel distributed controller model is established to account for the actuator saturation and packet loss in a unified representation by using two sets of Bernoulli distributed white sequences with known conditional probabilities. With the nonlinear feedback control law represented by the convex hull of a group of linear feedback laws, the distributed controllers for subsystems are obtained by solving an linear matrix inequality (LMI) optimisation problem. Finally, numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.

A Comprehensive Investigation of Copper Pitting Corrosion in a Drinking Water Distribution System

EPA Science Inventory

Copper pipe pitting is a complicated corrosion process for which exact causes and solutions are uncertain. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive investigation of a cold water copper pitting corrosion problem in a drinking water distribution system, including a refi...

Variational Assimilation of Sparse and Uncertain Satellite Data For 1D Saint-Venant River Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garambois, P. A.; Brisset, P.; Monnier, J.; Roux, H.

2016-12-01

Profusion of satellites are providing increasingly accurate measurements of continental water cyle, and water bodies variations while in situ observability is declining. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will provide maps of river surface elevations widths and slopes with an almost global coverage and temporal revisits. This will offer the possibility to address a larger variety of inverse problems in surface hydrology. Data assimilation techniques, that are broadly used in several scientific fields, aim to optimally combine models, system observations and prior information. Variational assimilation consists in iterative minimization of a discrepency measure between model outputs and observations, here for retrieving boundary conditions and parameters of a 1D Saint Venant model. Nevertheless, inferring river discharge and hydraulic parameters thanks to the observation of river surface is not straightforward. This is particularly true in the case of sparse and uncertain observations of flow state variables since they are governed by nonlinear physical processes. This paper investigates the identifiability of hydraulic controls given sparse and uncertain satellite observations of a river. The identifiability of river discharge alone and with roughness is tested for several spatio temporal patterns of river observations, including SWOT like observations. A new 1D Shallow water model with variational data assimilation, within the DassFlow chain is presented as well as postprocessing and observation operator dedicated to the future SWOT and SWOT simulator data. In view to decrease inverse problem dimensionality discharge is represented in a reduced basis. Moreover we introduce an original and reduced parametrization of the flow resistance that can account for various flow regimes along with a cross section design dedicated to remote sensing. We show which discharge temporal frequencies can be identified w.r.t observation ones and at which accuracy. Eventually the important question of the discharge identifiability potential between observation times and depending on the spatio-temporal sampling is adressed with respect to the wave lengths of the hydrological signals.

Simulation-optimization model for production planning in the blood supply chain.

PubMed

Osorio, Andres F; Brailsford, Sally C; Smith, Honora K; Forero-Matiz, Sonia P; Camacho-Rodríguez, Bernardo A

2017-12-01

Production planning in the blood supply chain is a challenging task. Many complex factors such as uncertain supply and demand, blood group proportions, shelf life constraints and different collection and production methods have to be taken into account, and thus advanced methodologies are required for decision making. This paper presents an integrated simulation-optimization model to support both strategic and operational decisions in production planning. Discrete-event simulation is used to represent the flows through the supply chain, incorporating collection, production, storing and distribution. On the other hand, an integer linear optimization model running over a rolling planning horizon is used to support daily decisions, such as the required number of donors, collection methods and production planning. This approach is evaluated using real data from a blood center in Colombia. The results show that, using the proposed model, key indicators such as shortages, outdated units, donors required and cost are improved.

A μ analysis-based, controller-synthesis framework for robust bioinspired visual navigation in less-structured environments.

PubMed

Keshavan, J; Gremillion, G; Escobar-Alvarez, H; Humbert, J S

2014-06-01

Safe, autonomous navigation by aerial microsystems in less-structured environments is a difficult challenge to overcome with current technology. This paper presents a novel visual-navigation approach that combines bioinspired wide-field processing of optic flow information with control-theoretic tools for synthesis of closed loop systems, resulting in robustness and performance guarantees. Structured singular value analysis is used to synthesize a dynamic controller that provides good tracking performance in uncertain environments without resorting to explicit pose estimation or extraction of a detailed environmental depth map. Experimental results with a quadrotor demonstrate the vehicle's robust obstacle-avoidance behaviour in a straight line corridor, an S-shaped corridor and a corridor with obstacles distributed in the vehicle's path. The computational efficiency and simplicity of the current approach offers a promising alternative to satisfying the payload, power and bandwidth constraints imposed by aerial microsystems.

Investigation of Biotransport in a Tumor With Uncertain Material Properties Using a Nonintrusive Spectral Uncertainty Quantification Method.

PubMed

Alexanderian, Alen; Zhu, Liang; Salloum, Maher; Ma, Ronghui; Yu, Meilin

2017-09-01

In this study, statistical models are developed for modeling uncertain heterogeneous permeability and porosity in tumors, and the resulting uncertainties in pressure and velocity fields during an intratumoral injection are quantified using a nonintrusive spectral uncertainty quantification (UQ) method. Specifically, the uncertain permeability is modeled as a log-Gaussian random field, represented using a truncated Karhunen-Lòeve (KL) expansion, and the uncertain porosity is modeled as a log-normal random variable. The efficacy of the developed statistical models is validated by simulating the concentration fields with permeability and porosity of different uncertainty levels. The irregularity in the concentration field bears reasonable visual agreement with that in MicroCT images from experiments. The pressure and velocity fields are represented using polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to enable efficient computation of their statistical properties. The coefficients in the PC expansion are computed using a nonintrusive spectral projection method with the Smolyak sparse quadrature. The developed UQ approach is then used to quantify the uncertainties in the random pressure and velocity fields. A global sensitivity analysis is also performed to assess the contribution of individual KL modes of the log-permeability field to the total variance of the pressure field. It is demonstrated that the developed UQ approach can effectively quantify the flow uncertainties induced by uncertain material properties of the tumor.

Final Report: A Transport Phenomena Based Approach to Probe Evolution of Weld Macro and Microstructures and A Smart Bi-directional Model of Fusion Welding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dr. Tarasankar DebRoy

In recent years, applications of numerical heat transfer and fluid flow models of fusion welding have resulted in improved understanding of both the welding processes and welded materials. They have been used to accurately calculate thermal cycles and fusion zone geometry in many cases. Here we report the following three major advancements from this project. First, we show how microstructures, grain size distribution and topology of welds of several important engineering alloys can be computed starting from better understanding of the fusion welding process through numerical heat transfer and fluid flow calculations. Second, we provide a conclusive proof that themore » reliability of numerical heat transfer and fluid flow calculations can be significantly improved by optimizing several uncertain model parameters. Third, we demonstrate how the numerical heat transfer and fluid flow models can be combined with a suitable global optimization program such as a genetic algorithm for the tailoring of weld attributes such as attaining a specified weld geometry or a weld thermal cycle. The results of the project have been published in many papers and a listing of these are included together with a list of the graduate thesis that resulted from this project. The work supported by the DOE award has resulted in several important national and international awards. A listing of these awards and the status of the graduate students are also presented in this report.« less

Distribution of Pacific Marten in Coastal Oregon

Treesearch

Katie M Moriarty; John D Bailey; Sharon E Smythe; Jake Verschuyl

2016-01-01

Information on the distribution of rare and little known species is critical for managers and biologists challenged with species conservation in an uncertain future. Pacific Martens (Martes caurina) historically resided throughout Oregon and northern California’s coastal forests, but were considered extinct until 1996 when a population in northern...

Enhanced representation of soil NO emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0.2

EPA Science Inventory

Modeling of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions is highly uncertain and may misrepresent its spatial and temporal distribution. This study builds upon a recently introduced parameterization to improve the timing and spatial distribution of soil NO emission estimates in the Community...

Characterizing the topology of probabilistic biological networks.

PubMed

Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer

2013-01-01

Biological interactions are often uncertain events, that may or may not take place with some probability. This uncertainty leads to a massive number of alternative interaction topologies for each such network. The existing studies analyze the degree distribution of biological networks by assuming that all the given interactions take place under all circumstances. This strong and often incorrect assumption can lead to misleading results. In this paper, we address this problem and develop a sound mathematical basis to characterize networks in the presence of uncertain interactions. Using our mathematical representation, we develop a method that can accurately describe the degree distribution of such networks. We also take one more step and extend our method to accurately compute the joint-degree distributions of node pairs connected by edges. The number of possible network topologies grows exponentially with the number of uncertain interactions. However, the mathematical model we develop allows us to compute these degree distributions in polynomial time in the number of interactions. Our method works quickly even for entire protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks. It also helps us find an adequate mathematical model using MLE. We perform a comparative study of node-degree and joint-degree distributions in two types of biological networks: the classical deterministic networks and the more flexible probabilistic networks. Our results confirm that power-law and log-normal models best describe degree distributions for both probabilistic and deterministic networks. Moreover, the inverse correlation of degrees of neighboring nodes shows that, in probabilistic networks, nodes with large number of interactions prefer to interact with those with small number of interactions more frequently than expected. We also show that probabilistic networks are more robust for node-degree distribution computation than the deterministic ones. all the data sets used, the software implemented and the alignments found in this paper are available at http://bioinformatics.cise.ufl.edu/projects/probNet/.

Capacity planning for waste management systems: an interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming approach.

PubMed

Nie, Xianghui; Huang, Guo H; Li, Yongping

2009-11-01

This study integrates the concepts of interval numbers and fuzzy sets into optimization analysis by dynamic programming as a means of accounting for system uncertainty. The developed interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming (IFRDP) model improves upon previous interval dynamic programming methods. It allows highly uncertain information to be effectively communicated into the optimization process through introducing the concept of fuzzy boundary interval and providing an interval-parameter fuzzy robust programming method for an embedded linear programming problem. Consequently, robustness of the optimization process and solution can be enhanced. The modeling approach is applied to a hypothetical problem for the planning of waste-flow allocation and treatment/disposal facility expansion within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. Interval solutions for capacity expansion of waste management facilities and relevant waste-flow allocation are generated and interpreted to provide useful decision alternatives. The results indicate that robust and useful solutions can be obtained, and the proposed IFRDP approach is applicable to practical problems that are associated with highly complex and uncertain information.

Coordinated Voltage Control of Transformer Taps on account of Hierarchical Structure in Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakachi, Yoshiki; Kato, Satoshi; Ukai, Hiroyuki

Participation of distributed generators (DG), such as wind turbines, co-generation system etc., is natural trend from ecological point of view and will increase more and more. The outputs of these DGs mainly depend on weather condition but don't correspond to the changes of electrical load demand necessarily. On the other hand, due to the deregulation of electric power market, the power flow in power system will uncertainly vary with several power transactions. Thus, complex power flow by DGs or transactions will cause the voltage deviation. It will be difficult to sustain the voltage quality by using the conventional voltage/reactive power control in near future. In this paper, in order to avoid such a voltage deviation and to decrease the frequency of transformer tap actions, the coordinated voltage control scheme of transformer taps on account of hierarchical structure in power system is proposed. In the proposed scheme, integral of voltage deviation at each layer bus is applied to decide the timing of each transformer tap action. It is confirmed by some numerical simulations that the proposed scheme is able to respond to every conditions on voltage deviation.

Hydrogeologic investigations of the Sierra Vista subwatershed of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Cochise County, southeast Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pool, Donald R.; Coes, Alissa L.

1999-01-01

The hydrogeologic system in the Sierra Vista subwatershed of the Upper San Pedro Basin in southeastern Arizona was investigated for the purpose of developing a better understanding of stream-aquifer interactions. The San Pedro River is an intermittent stream that supports a narrow corridor of riparian vegetation. Withdrawal of ground water will result in reduced discharge from the basin through reduced base flow and evapotranspiration; however, the rate and location of reduced discharge are uncertain. The investigation resulted in better definition of distributions of silt and clay in the regional aquifer; changes in seasonal precipitation, runoff, and base flow in the San Pedro River; sources of base flow; and regional water-level changes. Regional ground-water flow is separated into deep-confined and shallow-unconfined systems by silt and clay. Precipitation, runoff, and base flow declined at the Charleston streamflow-gaging station from 1936 through 1997 for the months of June through October. Base flow at the Charleston station during 1996 and 1997 was primarily supplied by ground water recharged near the San Pedro River during recent major runoff and by minor contributions from the regional aquifer. The decline in base flow, about 2 cubic feet per second, has several probable causes including declining runoff and recharge near the river during June through October and increased interception of ground-water flow to the river by wells and phreatophytes. Water levels in wells throughout the regional aquifer generally declined at rates of 0.2 to 0.5 feet per year between 1940 and the mid-1980's, which corresponded with a period of below-average winter precipitation. Water levels in wells in the Fort Huachuca and Sierra Vista areas declined at rates that were faster than regional rates of decline through 1998 and caused diversion of ground-water flow that would have discharged along perennial stream reaches.

Modeling steam pressure under martian lava flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dundas, Colin M.; Keszthelyi, Laszlo P.

2013-01-01

Rootless cones on Mars are a valuable indicator of past interactions between lava and water. However, the details of the lava–water interactions are not fully understood, limiting the ability to use these features to infer new information about past water on Mars. We have developed a model for the pressurization of a dry layer of porous regolith by melting and boiling ground ice in the shallow subsurface. This model builds on previous models of lava cooling and melting of subsurface ice. We find that for reasonable regolith properties and ice depths of decimeters, explosive pressures can be reached. However, the energy stored within such lags is insufficient to excavate thick flows unless they draw steam from a broader region than the local eruption site. These results indicate that lag pressurization can drive rootless cone formation under favorable circumstances, but in other instances molten fuel–coolant interactions are probably required. We use the model results to consider a range of scenarios for rootless cone formation in Athabasca Valles. Pressure buildup by melting and boiling ice under a desiccated lag is possible in some locations, consistent with the expected distribution of ice implanted from atmospheric water vapor. However, it is uncertain whether such ice has existed in the vicinity of Athabasca Valles in recent history. Plausible alternative sources include surface snow or an aqueous flood shortly before the emplacement of the lava flow.

Numerical prediction of a draft tube flow taking into account uncertain inlet conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brugiere, O.; Balarac, G.; Corre, C.; Metais, O.; Flores, E.; Pleroy

2012-11-01

The swirling turbulent flow in a hydroturbine draft tube is computed with a non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) method coupled to Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modelling in order to take into account in the numerical prediction the physical uncertainties existing on the inlet flow conditions. The proposed approach yields not only mean velocity fields to be compared with measured profiles, as is customary in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) practice, but also variance of these quantities from which error bars can be deduced on the computed profiles, thus making more significant the comparison between experiment and computation.

Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change

Treesearch

Seth J. Wenger; Nicholas A. Som; Daniel C. Dauwalter; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville; Charles H. Luce; Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Kurt D. Fausch; Bruce E. Rieman

2013-01-01

Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing...

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 1. Theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yen, Chung-Cheng; Guymon, Gary L.

1990-01-01

An efficient probabilistic model is developed and cascaded with a deterministic model for predicting water table elevations in regional aquifers. The objective is to quantify model uncertainty where precise estimates of water table elevations may be required. The probabilistic model is based on the two-point probability method which only requires prior knowledge of uncertain variables mean and coefficient of variation. The two-point estimate method is theoretically developed and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of comparisons using hypothetical determinisitic problems indicate that the two-point estimate method is only generally valid for linear problems where the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters (for example, storage coefficient and hydraulic conductivity) is small. The two-point estimate method may be applied to slightly nonlinear problems with good results, provided coefficients of variation are small. In such cases, the two-point estimate method is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo method provided the number of uncertain variables is less than eight.

An Efficient Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach to Modeling Regional Groundwater Flow: 1. Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Chung-Cheng; Guymon, Gary L.

1990-07-01

An efficient probabilistic model is developed and cascaded with a deterministic model for predicting water table elevations in regional aquifers. The objective is to quantify model uncertainty where precise estimates of water table elevations may be required. The probabilistic model is based on the two-point probability method which only requires prior knowledge of uncertain variables mean and coefficient of variation. The two-point estimate method is theoretically developed and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of comparisons using hypothetical determinisitic problems indicate that the two-point estimate method is only generally valid for linear problems where the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters (for example, storage coefficient and hydraulic conductivity) is small. The two-point estimate method may be applied to slightly nonlinear problems with good results, provided coefficients of variation are small. In such cases, the two-point estimate method is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo method provided the number of uncertain variables is less than eight.

The Social Network of Tracer Variations and O(100) Uncertain Photochemical Parameters in the Community Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Labute, M.; Chowdhary, K.; Debusschere, B.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.

2014-12-01

Simulating the atmospheric cycles of ozone, methane, and other radiatively important trace gases in global climate models is computationally demanding and requires the use of 100's of photochemical parameters with uncertain values. Quantitative analysis of the effects of these uncertainties on tracer distributions, radiative forcing, and other model responses is hindered by the "curse of dimensionality." We describe efforts to overcome this curse using ensemble simulations and advanced statistical methods. Uncertainties from 95 photochemical parameters in the trop-MOZART scheme were sampled using a Monte Carlo method and propagated through 10,000 simulations of the single column version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The variance of the ensemble was represented as a network with nodes and edges, and the topology and connections in the network were analyzed using lasso regression, Bayesian compressive sensing, and centrality measures from the field of social network theory. Despite the limited sample size for this high dimensional problem, our methods determined the key sources of variation and co-variation in the ensemble and identified important clusters in the network topology. Our results can be used to better understand the flow of photochemical uncertainty in simulations using CAM and other climate models. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and supported by the DOE Office of Science through the Scientific Discovery Through Advanced Computing (SciDAC).

Estimation for the Linear Model With Uncertain Covariance Matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zachariah, Dave; Shariati, Nafiseh; Bengtsson, Mats; Jansson, Magnus; Chatterjee, Saikat

2014-03-01

We derive a maximum a posteriori estimator for the linear observation model, where the signal and noise covariance matrices are both uncertain. The uncertainties are treated probabilistically by modeling the covariance matrices with prior inverse-Wishart distributions. The nonconvex problem of jointly estimating the signal of interest and the covariance matrices is tackled by a computationally efficient fixed-point iteration as well as an approximate variational Bayes solution. The statistical performance of estimators is compared numerically to state-of-the-art estimators from the literature and shown to perform favorably.

Multi-AUV autonomous task planning based on the scroll time domain quantum bee colony optimization algorithm in uncertain environment

PubMed Central

Zhang, Rubo; Yang, Yu

2017-01-01

Research on distributed task planning model for multi-autonomous underwater vehicle (MAUV). A scroll time domain quantum artificial bee colony (STDQABC) optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the multi-AUV optimal task planning scheme. In the uncertain marine environment, the rolling time domain control technique is used to realize a numerical optimization in a narrowed time range. Rolling time domain control is one of the better task planning techniques, which can greatly reduce the computational workload and realize the tradeoff between AUV dynamics, environment and cost. Finally, a simulation experiment was performed to evaluate the distributed task planning performance of the scroll time domain quantum bee colony optimization algorithm. The simulation results demonstrate that the STDQABC algorithm converges faster than the QABC and ABC algorithms in terms of both iterations and running time. The STDQABC algorithm can effectively improve MAUV distributed tasking planning performance, complete the task goal and get the approximate optimal solution. PMID:29186166

Multi-AUV autonomous task planning based on the scroll time domain quantum bee colony optimization algorithm in uncertain environment.

PubMed

Li, Jianjun; Zhang, Rubo; Yang, Yu

2017-01-01

Research on distributed task planning model for multi-autonomous underwater vehicle (MAUV). A scroll time domain quantum artificial bee colony (STDQABC) optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the multi-AUV optimal task planning scheme. In the uncertain marine environment, the rolling time domain control technique is used to realize a numerical optimization in a narrowed time range. Rolling time domain control is one of the better task planning techniques, which can greatly reduce the computational workload and realize the tradeoff between AUV dynamics, environment and cost. Finally, a simulation experiment was performed to evaluate the distributed task planning performance of the scroll time domain quantum bee colony optimization algorithm. The simulation results demonstrate that the STDQABC algorithm converges faster than the QABC and ABC algorithms in terms of both iterations and running time. The STDQABC algorithm can effectively improve MAUV distributed tasking planning performance, complete the task goal and get the approximate optimal solution.

Minimal-Approximation-Based Distributed Consensus Tracking of a Class of Uncertain Nonlinear Multiagent Systems With Unknown Control Directions.

PubMed

Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

2017-03-28

A minimal-approximation-based distributed adaptive consensus tracking approach is presented for strict-feedback multiagent systems with unknown heterogeneous nonlinearities and control directions under a directed network. Existing approximation-based consensus results for uncertain nonlinear multiagent systems in lower-triangular form have used multiple function approximators in each local controller to approximate unmatched nonlinearities of each follower. Thus, as the follower's order increases, the number of the approximators used in its local controller increases. However, the proposed approach employs only one function approximator to construct the local controller of each follower regardless of the order of the follower. The recursive design methodology using a new error transformation is derived for the proposed minimal-approximation-based design. Furthermore, a bounding lemma on parameters of Nussbaum functions is presented to handle the unknown control direction problem in the minimal-approximation-based distributed consensus tracking framework and the stability of the overall closed-loop system is rigorously analyzed in the Lyapunov sense.

Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

2013-04-01

The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique. Subsequently, we only considered the most sensitive parameters for parameter optimization and UA. To explicitly account for the stream flow uncertainty, we assumed that the stream flow measurement error increases linearly with the stream flow value. To assess the uncertainty and infer posterior distributions of the parameters, we used a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler - differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) that uses sampling from an archive of past states to generate candidate points in each individual chain. It is shown that the marginal posterior distributions of the rainfall multipliers vary widely between individual events, as a consequence of rainfall measurement errors and the spatial variability of the rain. Only few of the rainfall events are well defined. The marginal posterior distributions of the SWAT model parameter values are well defined and identified by DREAM, within their prior ranges. The posterior distributions of output uncertainty parameter values also show that the stream flow data is highly uncertain. The approach of using rainfall multipliers to treat rainfall uncertainty for a complex model has an impact on the model parameter marginal posterior distributions and on the model results Corresponding author: Tel.: +32 (0)2629 3027; fax: +32(0)2629 3022. E-mail: otolessa@vub.ac.be

Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghanem, Roger G

2014-07-31

This effort was a collaboration with Youssef Marzouk of MIT, Omar Knio of Duke University (at the time at Johns Hopkins University) and Habib Najm of Sandia National Laboratories. The objective of this effort was to develop the mathematical and algorithmic capacity to analyze complex networks under uncertainty. Of interest were chemical reaction networks and smart grid networks. The statements of work for USC focused on the development of stochastic reduced models for uncertain networks. The USC team was led by Professor Roger Ghanem and consisted of one graduate student and a postdoc. The contributions completed by the USC teammore » consisted of 1) methodology and algorithms to address the eigenvalue problem, a problem of significance in the stability of networks under stochastic perturbations, 2) methodology and algorithms to characterize probability measures on graph structures with random flows. This is an important problem in characterizing random demand (encountered in smart grid) and random degradation (encountered in infrastructure systems), as well as modeling errors in Markov Chains (with ubiquitous relevance !). 3) methodology and algorithms for treating inequalities in uncertain systems. This is an important problem in the context of models for material failure and network flows under uncertainty where conditions of failure or flow are described in the form of inequalities between the state variables.« less

Stability of uncertain systems. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, G. L.

1971-01-01

The asymptotic properties of feedback systems are discussed, containing uncertain parameters and subjected to stochastic perturbations. The approach is functional analytic in flavor and thereby avoids the use of Markov techniques and auxiliary Lyapunov functionals characteristic of the existing work in this area. The results are given for the probability distributions of the accessible signals in the system and are proved using the Prohorov theory of the convergence of measures. For general nonlinear systems, a result similar to the small loop-gain theorem of deterministic stability theory is given. Boundedness is a property of the induced distributions of the signals and not the usual notion of boundedness in norm. For the special class of feedback systems formed by the cascade of a white noise, a sector nonlinearity and convolution operator conditions are given to insure the total boundedness of the overall feedback system.

A modified hybrid uncertain analysis method for dynamic response field of the LSOAAC with random and interval parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zi, Bin; Zhou, Bin

2016-07-01

For the prediction of dynamic response field of the luffing system of an automobile crane (LSOAAC) with random and interval parameters, a hybrid uncertain model is introduced. In the hybrid uncertain model, the parameters with certain probability distribution are modeled as random variables, whereas, the parameters with lower and upper bounds are modeled as interval variables instead of given precise values. Based on the hybrid uncertain model, the hybrid uncertain dynamic response equilibrium equation, in which different random and interval parameters are simultaneously included in input and output terms, is constructed. Then a modified hybrid uncertain analysis method (MHUAM) is proposed. In the MHUAM, based on random interval perturbation method, the first-order Taylor series expansion and the first-order Neumann series, the dynamic response expression of the LSOAAC is developed. Moreover, the mathematical characteristics of extrema of bounds of dynamic response are determined by random interval moment method and monotonic analysis technique. Compared with the hybrid Monte Carlo method (HMCM) and interval perturbation method (IPM), numerical results show the feasibility and efficiency of the MHUAM for solving the hybrid LSOAAC problems. The effects of different uncertain models and parameters on the LSOAAC response field are also investigated deeply, and numerical results indicate that the impact made by the randomness in the thrust of the luffing cylinder F is larger than that made by the gravity of the weight in suspension Q . In addition, the impact made by the uncertainty in the displacement between the lower end of the lifting arm and the luffing cylinder a is larger than that made by the length of the lifting arm L .

Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured

PubMed Central

Aschwanden, Andy; Fahnestock, Mark A.; Truffer, Martin

2016-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate due to increased surface melt and flow acceleration in outlet glaciers. Quantifying future dynamic contributions to sea level requires accurate portrayal of outlet glaciers in ice sheet simulations, but to date poor knowledge of subglacial topography and limited model resolution have prevented reproduction of complex spatial patterns of outlet flow. Here we combine a high-resolution ice-sheet model coupled to uniformly applied models of subglacial hydrology and basal sliding, and a new subglacial topography data set to simulate the flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Flow patterns of many outlet glaciers are well captured, illustrating fundamental commonalities in outlet glacier flow and highlighting the importance of efforts to map subglacial topography. Success in reproducing present day flow patterns shows the potential for prognostic modelling of ice sheets without the need for spatially varying parameters with uncertain time evolution. PMID:26830316

10 CFR 436.24 - Uncertainty analyses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.24 Uncertainty analyses. If particular items of cost data or timing of cash flows are uncertain and are not fixed under § 436.14, Federal agencies may examine the impact of uncertainty on the calculation of life cycle cost effectiveness or the assignment of rank order...

Characterizing the uncertainty of classification methods and its impact on the performance of crowdsourcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Javier; Tahboub, Khalid; Delp, Edward J.

2015-03-01

Video surveillance systems are widely deployed for public safety. Real-time monitoring and alerting are some of the key requirements for building an intelligent video surveillance system. Real-life settings introduce many challenges that can impact the performance of real-time video analytics. Video analytics are desired to be resilient to adverse and changing scenarios. In this paper we present various approaches to characterize the uncertainty of a classifier and incorporate crowdsourcing at the times when the method is uncertain about making a particular decision. Incorporating crowdsourcing when a real-time video analytic method is uncertain about making a particular decision is known as online active learning from crowds. We evaluate our proposed approach by testing a method we developed previously for crowd flow estimation. We present three different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of the classifier in the automatic crowd flow estimation method and test them by introducing video quality degradations. Criteria to aggregate crowdsourcing results are also proposed and evaluated. An experimental evaluation is conducted using a publicly available dataset.

Building a Foundation for School Leadership: An Evaluation of the Annenberg Distributed Leadership Project, 2006-2010. Research Report # RR-73

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Supovitz, Jonathan; Riggan, Matthew

2012-01-01

Leading school change is a challenging endeavor. Successful leadership requires strategic and sustained effort, particularly in the shifting and uncertain environment of urban public schools. The concept of distributed leadership--in which multiple actors tackle the challenges of school leadership in concert--is a promising way to strengthen…

Eddington's demon: inferring galaxy mass functions and other distributions from uncertain data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obreschkow, D.; Murray, S. G.; Robotham, A. S. G.; Westmeier, T.

2018-03-01

We present a general modified maximum likelihood (MML) method for inferring generative distribution functions from uncertain and biased data. The MML estimator is identical to, but easier and many orders of magnitude faster to compute than the solution of the exact Bayesian hierarchical modelling of all measurement errors. As a key application, this method can accurately recover the mass function (MF) of galaxies, while simultaneously dealing with observational uncertainties (Eddington bias), complex selection functions and unknown cosmic large-scale structure. The MML method is free of binning and natively accounts for small number statistics and non-detections. Its fast implementation in the R-package dftools is equally applicable to other objects, such as haloes, groups, and clusters, as well as observables other than mass. The formalism readily extends to multidimensional distribution functions, e.g. a Choloniewski function for the galaxy mass-angular momentum distribution, also handled by dftools. The code provides uncertainties and covariances for the fitted model parameters and approximate Bayesian evidences. We use numerous mock surveys to illustrate and test the MML method, as well as to emphasize the necessity of accounting for observational uncertainties in MFs of modern galaxy surveys.

A method for approximating acoustic-field-amplitude uncertainty caused by environmental uncertainties.

PubMed

James, Kevin R; Dowling, David R

2008-09-01

In underwater acoustics, the accuracy of computational field predictions is commonly limited by uncertainty in environmental parameters. An approximate technique for determining the probability density function (PDF) of computed field amplitude, A, from known environmental uncertainties is presented here. The technique can be applied to several, N, uncertain parameters simultaneously, requires N+1 field calculations, and can be used with any acoustic field model. The technique implicitly assumes independent input parameters and is based on finding the optimum spatial shift between field calculations completed at two different values of each uncertain parameter. This shift information is used to convert uncertain-environmental-parameter distributions into PDF(A). The technique's accuracy is good when the shifted fields match well. Its accuracy is evaluated in range-independent underwater sound channels via an L(1) error-norm defined between approximate and numerically converged results for PDF(A). In 50-m- and 100-m-deep sound channels with 0.5% uncertainty in depth (N=1) at frequencies between 100 and 800 Hz, and for ranges from 1 to 8 km, 95% of the approximate field-amplitude distributions generated L(1) values less than 0.52 using only two field calculations. Obtaining comparable accuracy from traditional methods requires of order 10 field calculations and up to 10(N) when N>1.

Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Probabilistic Reasoning: Directed Cyclic Graph and Joint Probability Distribution.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin

2015-07-01

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as Bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning. Dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is a newly presented model of PGMs, which can be applied to fault diagnosis of large and complex industrial systems, disease diagnosis, and so on. The basic methodology of DUCG has been previously presented, in which only the directed acyclic graph (DAG) was addressed. However, the mathematical meaning of DUCG was not discussed. In this paper, the DUCG with directed cyclic graphs (DCGs) is addressed. In contrast, BN does not allow DCGs, as otherwise the conditional independence will not be satisfied. The inference algorithm for the DUCG with DCGs is presented, which not only extends the capabilities of DUCG from DAGs to DCGs but also enables users to decompose a large and complex DUCG into a set of small, simple sub-DUCGs, so that a large and complex knowledge base can be easily constructed, understood, and maintained. The basic mathematical definition of a complete DUCG with or without DCGs is proved to be a joint probability distribution (JPD) over a set of random variables. The incomplete DUCG as a part of a complete DUCG may represent a part of JPD. Examples are provided to illustrate the methodology.

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

2016-01-01

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

Hydraulic fracture propagation modeling and data-based fracture identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jing

Successful shale gas and tight oil production is enabled by the engineering innovation of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulically induced fractures will most likely deviate from the bi-wing planar pattern and generate complex fracture networks due to mechanical interactions and reservoir heterogeneity, both of which render the conventional fracture simulators insufficient to characterize the fractured reservoir. Moreover, in reservoirs with ultra-low permeability, the natural fractures are widely distributed, which will result in hydraulic fractures branching and merging at the interface and consequently lead to the creation of more complex fracture networks. Thus, developing a reliable hydraulic fracturing simulator, including both mechanical interaction and fluid flow, is critical in maximizing hydrocarbon recovery and optimizing fracture/well design and completion strategy in multistage horizontal wells. A novel fully coupled reservoir flow and geomechanics model based on the dual-lattice system is developed to simulate multiple nonplanar fractures' propagation in both homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs with or without pre-existing natural fractures. Initiation, growth, and coalescence of the microcracks will lead to the generation of macroscopic fractures, which is explicitly mimicked by failure and removal of bonds between particles from the discrete element network. This physics-based modeling approach leads to realistic fracture patterns without using the empirical rock failure and fracture propagation criteria required in conventional continuum methods. Based on this model, a sensitivity study is performed to investigate the effects of perforation spacing, in-situ stress anisotropy, rock properties (Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, and compressive strength), fluid properties, and natural fracture properties on hydraulic fracture propagation. In addition, since reservoirs are buried thousands of feet below the surface, the parameters used in the reservoir flow simulator have large uncertainty. Those biased and uncertain parameters will result in misleading oil and gas recovery predictions. The Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to estimate and update both the state variables (pressure and saturations) and uncertain reservoir parameters (permeability). In order to directly incorporate spatial information such as fracture location and formation heterogeneity into the algorithm, a new covariance matrix method is proposed. This new method has been applied to a simplified single-phase reservoir and a complex black oil reservoir with complex structures to prove its capability in calibrating the reservoir parameters.

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice sheet volume). Continual surrogate refinement guarantees asymptotic sampling from the predictive distribution. Directly characterizing the predictive distribution in this way allows us to assess the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate variability and change.

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.

2012-07-01

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent Systemmore » Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.« less

H∞ control for uncertain linear system over networks with Bernoulli data dropout and actuator saturation.

PubMed

Yu, Jimin; Yang, Chenchen; Tang, Xiaoming; Wang, Ping

2018-03-01

This paper investigates the H ∞ control problems for uncertain linear system over networks with random communication data dropout and actuator saturation. The random data dropout process is modeled by a Bernoulli distributed white sequence with a known conditional probability distribution and the actuator saturation is confined in a convex hull by introducing a group of auxiliary matrices. By constructing a quadratic Lyapunov function, effective conditions for the state feedback-based H ∞ controller and the observer-based H ∞ controller are proposed in the form of non-convex matrix inequalities to take the random data dropout and actuator saturation into consideration simultaneously, and the problem of non-convex feasibility is solved by applying cone complementarity linearization (CCL) procedure. Finally, two simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new design techniques. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rendezvous with connectivity preservation for multi-robot systems with an unknown leader

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yi

2018-02-01

This paper studies the leader-following rendezvous problem with connectivity preservation for multi-agent systems composed of uncertain multi-robot systems subject to external disturbances and an unknown leader, both of which are generated by a so-called exosystem with parametric uncertainty. By combining internal model design, potential function technique and adaptive control, two distributed control strategies are proposed to maintain the connectivity of the communication network, to achieve the asymptotic tracking of all the followers to the output of the unknown leader system, as well as to reject unknown external disturbances. It is also worth to mention that the uncertain parameters in the multi-robot systems and exosystem are further allowed to belong to unknown and unbounded sets when applying the second fully distributed control law containing a dynamic gain inspired by high-gain adaptive control or self-tuning regulator.

Multi-agent coordination algorithms for control of distributed energy resources in smart grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortes, Andres

Sustainable energy is a top-priority for researchers these days, since electricity and transportation are pillars of modern society. Integration of clean energy technologies such as wind, solar, and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), is a major engineering challenge in operation and management of power systems. This is due to the uncertain nature of renewable energy technologies and the large amount of extra load that PEVs would add to the power grid. Given the networked structure of a power system, multi-agent control and optimization strategies are natural approaches to address the various problems of interest for the safe and reliable operation of the power grid. The distributed computation in multi-agent algorithms addresses three problems at the same time: i) it allows for the handling of problems with millions of variables that a single processor cannot compute, ii) it allows certain independence and privacy to electricity customers by not requiring any usage information, and iii) it is robust to localized failures in the communication network, being able to solve problems by simply neglecting the failing section of the system. We propose various algorithms to coordinate storage, generation, and demand resources in a power grid using multi-agent computation and decentralized decision making. First, we introduce a hierarchical vehicle-one-grid (V1G) algorithm for coordination of PEVs under usage constraints, where energy only flows from the grid in to the batteries of PEVs. We then present a hierarchical vehicle-to-grid (V2G) algorithm for PEV coordination that takes into consideration line capacity constraints in the distribution grid, and where energy flows both ways, from the grid in to the batteries, and from the batteries to the grid. Next, we develop a greedy-like hierarchical algorithm for management of demand response events with on/off loads. Finally, we introduce distributed algorithms for the optimal control of distributed energy resources, i.e., generation and storage in a microgrid. The algorithms we present are provably correct and tested in simulation. Each algorithm is assumed to work on a particular network topology, and simulation studies are carried out in order to demonstrate their convergence properties to a desired solution.

Distributed Optimization Design of Continuous-Time Multiagent Systems With Unknown-Frequency Disturbances.

PubMed

Wang, Xinghu; Hong, Yiguang; Yi, Peng; Ji, Haibo; Kang, Yu

2017-05-24

In this paper, a distributed optimization problem is studied for continuous-time multiagent systems with unknown-frequency disturbances. A distributed gradient-based control is proposed for the agents to achieve the optimal consensus with estimating unknown frequencies and rejecting the bounded disturbance in the semi-global sense. Based on convex optimization analysis and adaptive internal model approach, the exact optimization solution can be obtained for the multiagent system disturbed by exogenous disturbances with uncertain parameters.

Diamictite from Nimrod Glacier area, Antarctica: Possible Proterozoic glaciation on the seventh continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stump, Edmund; Miller, Julia M. G.; Korsch, Russell J.; Edgerton, David G.

1988-03-01

Late Proterozoic glacial deposits have been found on all continents except Antarctica. Here we describe four units of Late Proterozoic diamictite, with a total thickness of about 10m, from Panorama Point, Nimrod Glacier area, Antarctica, which have characteristics compatible with glaciogenic origin. The diamictite occurs within the Goldie Formation, a sequence of marine turbidites, and is associated with a unit of mafic pillow lavas. The diamictite is commonly structureless and in places laminated. Coarse clasts occur as scattered pebbles and cobbles and as pebbly pods and beds. No striated or faceted clasts were found. A few pebbles may pierce the laminae, but a drop-stone origin is uncertain. Deformation and metamorphism have obscured subtleties of original sedimentary structure. Outsize clasts in laminated sandy siltstone (now schistose) suggest a glaciogenic origin for these diamictites, but deposition by mass-flow processes cannot be ruled out. The discovery in Antarctica of possible Late Proterozoic glaciogenic deposits extends their geographic distribution to all of the major continental masses.

Sequential geophysical and flow inversion to characterize fracture networks in subsurface systems

DOE PAGES

Mudunuru, Maruti Kumar; Karra, Satish; Makedonska, Nataliia; ...

2017-09-05

Subsurface applications, including geothermal, geological carbon sequestration, and oil and gas, typically involve maximizing either the extraction of energy or the storage of fluids. Fractures form the main pathways for flow in these systems, and locating these fractures is critical for predicting flow. However, fracture characterization is a highly uncertain process, and data from multiple sources, such as flow and geophysical are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We present a nonintrusive, sequential inversion framework for integrating data from geophysical and flow sources to constrain fracture networks in the subsurface. In this framework, we first estimate bounds on the statistics formore » the fracture orientations using microseismic data. These bounds are estimated through a combination of a focal mechanism (physics-based approach) and clustering analysis (statistical approach) of seismic data. Then, the fracture lengths are constrained using flow data. In conclusion, the efficacy of this inversion is demonstrated through a representative example.« less

Sequential geophysical and flow inversion to characterize fracture networks in subsurface systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mudunuru, Maruti Kumar; Karra, Satish; Makedonska, Nataliia

Subsurface applications, including geothermal, geological carbon sequestration, and oil and gas, typically involve maximizing either the extraction of energy or the storage of fluids. Fractures form the main pathways for flow in these systems, and locating these fractures is critical for predicting flow. However, fracture characterization is a highly uncertain process, and data from multiple sources, such as flow and geophysical are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We present a nonintrusive, sequential inversion framework for integrating data from geophysical and flow sources to constrain fracture networks in the subsurface. In this framework, we first estimate bounds on the statistics formore » the fracture orientations using microseismic data. These bounds are estimated through a combination of a focal mechanism (physics-based approach) and clustering analysis (statistical approach) of seismic data. Then, the fracture lengths are constrained using flow data. In conclusion, the efficacy of this inversion is demonstrated through a representative example.« less

Improved first-order uncertainty method for water-quality modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, C.S.; Anmangandla, S.

1992-01-01

Uncertainties are unavoidable in water-quality modeling and subsequent management decisions. Monte Carlo simulation and first-order uncertainty analysis (involving linearization at central values of the uncertain variables) have been frequently used to estimate probability distributions for water-quality model output due to their simplicity. Each method has its drawbacks: Monte Carlo simulation's is mainly computational time; and first-order analysis are mainly questions of accuracy and representativeness, especially for nonlinear systems and extreme conditions. An improved (advanced) first-order method is presented, where the linearization point varies to match the output level whose exceedance probability is sought. The advanced first-order method is tested on the Streeter-Phelps equation to estimate the probability distribution of critical dissolved-oxygen deficit and critical dissolved oxygen using two hypothetical examples from the literature. The advanced first-order method provides a close approximation of the exceedance probability for the Streeter-Phelps model output estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using less computer time - by two orders of magnitude - regardless of the probability distributions assumed for the uncertain model parameters.

Distributed Fault-Tolerant Control of Networked Uncertain Euler-Lagrange Systems Under Actuator Faults.

PubMed

Chen, Gang; Song, Yongduan; Lewis, Frank L

2016-05-03

This paper investigates the distributed fault-tolerant control problem of networked Euler-Lagrange systems with actuator and communication link faults. An adaptive fault-tolerant cooperative control scheme is proposed to achieve the coordinated tracking control of networked uncertain Lagrange systems on a general directed communication topology, which contains a spanning tree with the root node being the active target system. The proposed algorithm is capable of compensating for the actuator bias fault, the partial loss of effectiveness actuation fault, the communication link fault, the model uncertainty, and the external disturbance simultaneously. The control scheme does not use any fault detection and isolation mechanism to detect, separate, and identify the actuator faults online, which largely reduces the online computation and expedites the responsiveness of the controller. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a test-bed of multiple robot-arm cooperative control system is developed for real-time verification. Experiments on the networked robot-arms are conduced and the results confirm the benefits and the effectiveness of the proposed distributed fault-tolerant control algorithms.

Effective Strategy Formation Models for Inventory Management under the Conditions of Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kosorukov, Oleg Anatolyevich; Sviridova, Olga Alexandrovna

2015-01-01

The article deals with the problem of modeling the commodity flows management of a trading company under the conditions of uncertain demand and long supply. The Author presents an analysis of modifications of diversified inventory management system with random demand, for which one can find the optimal inventory control strategies, including those…

Attention, Emotion, and Deactivation of Default Activity in Inferior Medial Prefrontal Cortex

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geday, Jacob; Gjedde, Albert

2009-01-01

Attention deactivates the inferior medial prefrontal cortex (IMPC), but it is uncertain if emotions can attenuate this deactivation. To test the extent to which common emotions interfere with attention, we measured changes of a blood flow index of brain activity in key areas of the IMPC with positron emission tomography (PET) of labeled water…

Turbulence Characteristics of Swirling Flowfields. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, T. W.

1983-01-01

Combustor design phenomena; recirculating flows research; single-wire, six-orientation, eddy dissipation rate, and turbulence modeling measurement; directional sensitivity (DS); calibration equipment, confined jet facility, and hot-wire instrumentation; effects of swirl, strong contraction nozzle, and expansion ratio; and turbulence parameters; uncertain; and DS in laminar jets; turbulent nonswirling jets, and turbulent swirling jets are discussed.

A Modeling Approach for Evaluating the Coupled Riparian Vegetation-Geomorphic Response to Altered Flow Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manners, R.; Wilcox, A. C.; Merritt, D. M.

2016-12-01

The ecogeomorphic response of riparian ecosystems to a change in hydrologic properties is difficult to predict because of the interactions and feedbacks among plants, water, and sediment. Most riparian models of community dynamics assume a static channel, yet geomorphic processes strongly control the establishment and survival of riparian vegetation. Using a combination of approaches that includes empirical relationships and hydrodynamic models, we model the coupled vegetation-topographic response of three cross-sections on the Yampa and Green Rivers in Dinosaur National Monument, to a shift in the flow regime. The locations represent the variable geomorphology and vegetation composition of these canyon-bound rivers. We account for the inundation and hydraulic properties of vegetation plots surveyed over three years within International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) Fastmech, equipped with a vegetation module that accounts for flexible stems and plant reconfiguration. The presence of functional groupings of plants, or those plants that respond similarly to environmental factors such as water availability and disturbance are determined from flow response curves developed for the Yampa River. Using field measurements of vegetation morphology, distance from the channel centerline, and dominant particle size and modeled inundation properties we develop an empirical relationship between these variables and topographic change. We evaluate vegetation and channel form changes over decadal timescales, allowing for the integration of processes over time. From our analyses, we identify thresholds in the flow regime that alter the distribution of plants and reduce geomorphic complexity, predominately through side-channel and backwater infilling. Simplification of some processes (e.g., empirically-derived sedimentation) and detailed treatment of others (e.g., plant-flow interactions) allows us to model the coupled dynamics of riparian ecosystems and evaluate the impact of small to large shifts in the flow regime. This approach will be useful to river managers and scientists, as they try to understand the potential changes to riparian ecosystems with uncertain changes to hydrologic regimes as a result of a changing climate and human demands.

Coupled hydrological and geochemical process evolution at the Landscape Evolution Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troch, P. A. A.

2015-12-01

Predictions of hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to natural and anthropogenic forcing at the landscape scale are highly uncertain due to the effects of heterogeneity on the scaling of reaction, flow and transport phenomena. The physical, chemical and biological structures and processes controlling reaction, flow and transport in natural landscapes interact at multiple space and time scales and are difficult to quantify. The current paradigm of hydrological and geochemical theory is that process descriptions derived from observations at small scales in controlled systems can be applied to predict system response at much larger scales, as long as some 'equivalent' or 'effective' values of the scale-dependent parameters can be identified. Furthermore, natural systems evolve in time in a way that is hard to observe in short-run laboratory experiments or in natural landscapes with unknown initial conditions and time-variant forcing. The spatial structure of flow pathways along hillslopes determines the rate, extent and distribution of geochemical reactions (and biological colonization) that drive weathering, the transport and precipitation of solutes and sediments, and the further evolution of soil structure. The resulting evolution of structures and processes, in turn, produces spatiotemporal variability of hydrological states and flow pathways. There is thus a need for experimental research to improve our understanding of hydrology-biogeochemistry interactions and feedbacks at appropriate spatial scales larger than laboratory soil column experiments. Such research is complicated in real-world settings because of poorly constrained impacts of initial conditions, climate variability, ecosystems dynamics, and geomorphic evolution. The Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO) at Biosphere 2 offers a unique research facility that allows real-time observations of incipient hydrologic and biogeochemical response under well-constrained initial conditions and climate forcing. The LEO allows to close the water, carbon and energy budgets at hillslope scales, thereby enabling elucidation of the tight coupling between the time water spends along subsurface flow paths and geochemical weathering reactions, including the feedbacks between flow and pedogenesis.

The genus Bipolaris

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The genus Bipolaris includes important plant pathogens with worldwide distribution. Species recognition in the genus has been uncertain due to the lack of molecular data from ex-type cultures as well as overlapping morphological characteristics. In this study, we revise the genus Bipolaris based on ...

Testing the Role of Meander Cutoff in Promoting Gene Flow across a Riverine Barrier in Ground Skinks (Scincella lateralis)

PubMed Central

Jackson, Nathan D.; Austin, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

Despite considerable attention, the long-term impact of rivers on species diversification remains uncertain. Meander loop cutoff (MLC) is one river phenomenon that may compromise a river’s diversifying effects by passively transferring organisms from one side of the river to the other. However, the ability of MLC to promote gene flow across rivers has not been demonstrated empirically. Here, we test several predictions of MLC-mediated gene flow in populations of North American ground skinks (Scincella lateralis) separated by a well-established riverine barrier, the Mississippi River: 1) individuals collected from within meander cutoffs should be more closely related to individuals across the river than on the same side, 2) individuals within meander cutoffs should contain more immigrants than individuals away from meander cutoffs, 3) immigration rates estimated across the river should be highest in the direction of the cutoff event, and 4) the distribution of alleles native to one side of the river should be better predicted by the historical rather than current path of the river. To test these predictions we sampled 13 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA from ground skinks collected near three ancient meander loops. These predictions were generally supported by genetic data, although support was stronger for mtDNA than for microsatellite data. Partial support for genetic divergence of samples within ancient meander loops also provides evidence for the MLC hypothesis. Although a role for MLC-mediated gene flow was supported here for ground skinks, the transient nature of river channels and morphologies may limit the long-term importance of MLC in stemming population divergence across major rivers. PMID:23658778

Probabilistic evaluation of fuselage-type composite structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

1992-01-01

A methodology is developed to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, natural frequencies, displacements, stress/strain etc., which are the consequences of the random variation (scatter) of the primitive (independent random) variables in the constituent, ply, laminate and structural levels. This methodology is implemented in the IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) computer code. A fuselage-type composite structure is analyzed to demonstrate the code's capability. The probability distribution functions of the buckling loads, natural frequency, displacement, strain and stress are computed. The sensitivity of each primitive (independent random) variable to a given structural response is also identified from the analyses.

Stronger steerability criterion for more uncertain continuous-variable systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Priyanka; Pramanik, Tanumoy; Majumdar, A. S.

2015-10-01

We derive a fine-grained uncertainty relation for the measurement of two incompatible observables on a single quantum system of continuous variables, and show that continuous-variable systems are more uncertain than discrete-variable systems. Using the derived fine-grained uncertainty relation, we formulate a stronger steering criterion that is able to reveal the steerability of NOON states that has hitherto not been possible using other criteria. We further obtain a monogamy relation for our steering inequality which leads to an, in principle, improved lower bound on the secret key rate of a one-sided device independent quantum key distribution protocol for continuous variables.

Numerical Simulation and Quantitative Uncertainty Assessment of Microchannel Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debusschere, Bert; Najm, Habib; Knio, Omar; Matta, Alain; Ghanem, Roger; Le Maitre, Olivier

2002-11-01

This study investigates the effect of uncertainty in physical model parameters on computed electrokinetic flow of proteins in a microchannel with a potassium phosphate buffer. The coupled momentum, species transport, and electrostatic field equations give a detailed representation of electroosmotic and pressure-driven flow, including sample dispersion mechanisms. The chemistry model accounts for pH-dependent protein labeling reactions as well as detailed buffer electrochemistry in a mixed finite-rate/equilibrium formulation. To quantify uncertainty, the governing equations are reformulated using a pseudo-spectral stochastic methodology, which uses polynomial chaos expansions to describe uncertain/stochastic model parameters, boundary conditions, and flow quantities. Integration of the resulting equations for the spectral mode strengths gives the evolution of all stochastic modes for all variables. Results show the spatiotemporal evolution of uncertainties in predicted quantities and highlight the dominant parameters contributing to these uncertainties during various flow phases. This work is supported by DARPA.

Distributed control for energy-efficient and fast consensus in wireless sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfredi, Sabato; Tucci, Edmondo Di

2017-05-01

The paper proposes a distributed control of nodes transmission radii in energy-harvesting wireless sensor networks for simultaneously coping with energy consumption and consensus responsiveness requirement. The stability of the closed-loop network under the proposed control law is proved. Simulation validations show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in nominal scenario as well as in the presence of uncertain node power requirements and harvesting system supply.

A Study of Late Funding of Elementary and Secondary Education Programs. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peat, Marwick, Mitchell and Co., Washington, DC.

This publication presents findings of a nationwide study of the impact of late or uncertain funding on elementary secondary educational programs funded by the U.S. Office of Education (USOE). Emphasis of the report is on detailed documentation of the problems created by current funding flow patterns to state and local education agencies. In phase…

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis ismore » conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. In conclusion, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.« less

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis ismore » conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. Finally, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.« less

For wind turbines in complex terrain, the devil is in the detail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Julia; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob; Parvu, Dan; Kilpatrick, Ryan; Costache, Adrian; Chowdhury, Jubayer; Siddiqui, Kamran; Hangan, Horia

2017-09-01

The cost of energy produced by onshore wind turbines is among the lowest available; however, onshore wind turbines are often positioned in a complex terrain, where the wind resources and wind conditions are quite uncertain due to the surrounding topography and/or vegetation. In this study, we use a scale model in a three-dimensional wind-testing chamber to show how minor changes in the terrain can result in significant differences in the flow at turbine height. These differences affect not only the power performance but also the life-time and maintenance costs of wind turbines, and hence, the economy and feasibility of wind turbine projects. We find that the mean wind, wind shear and turbulence level are extremely sensitive to the exact details of the terrain: a small modification of the edge of our scale model, results in a reduction of the estimated annual energy production by at least 50% and an increase in the turbulence level by a factor of five in the worst-case scenario with the most unfavorable wind direction. Wind farm developers should be aware that near escarpments destructive flows can occur and their extent is uncertain thus warranting on-site field measurements.

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Geraci, Gianluca; Eldred, Michael S.; Vane, Zachary P.; Lacaze, Guilhem; Oefelein, Joseph C.; Najm, Habib N.

2018-03-01

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the systems stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. These methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

DOE PAGES

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; ...

2018-02-09

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis ismore » conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. In conclusion, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.« less

An approach to quantifying the efficiency of a Bayesian filter

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Data assimilation is defined as the Bayesian conditioning of uncertain model simulations on observations for the purpose of reducing uncertainty about model states. Practical data assimilation applications require that simplifying assumptions be made about the prior and posterior state distributions...

A Bayesian Framework of Uncertainties Integration in 3D Geological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, D.; Liu, X.

2017-12-01

3D geological model can describe complicated geological phenomena in an intuitive way while its application may be limited by uncertain factors. Great progress has been made over the years, lots of studies decompose the uncertainties of geological model to analyze separately, while ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties. Great progress has been made over the years, while lots of studies ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties when analyzed them item by item from each source. To evaluate the synthetical uncertainty, we choose probability distribution to quantify uncertainty, and propose a bayesian framework of uncertainties integration. With this framework, we integrated data errors, spatial randomness, and cognitive information into posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. Uncertainties propagate and cumulate in modeling process, the gradual integration of multi-source uncertainty is a kind of simulation of the uncertainty propagation. Bayesian inference accomplishes uncertainty updating in modeling process. Maximum entropy principle makes a good effect on estimating prior probability distribution, which ensures the prior probability distribution subjecting to constraints supplied by the given information with minimum prejudice. In the end, we obtained a posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. This posterior distribution represents the synthetical impact of all the uncertain factors on the spatial structure of geological model. The framework provides a solution to evaluate synthetical impact on geological model of multi-source uncertainties and a thought to study uncertainty propagation mechanism in geological modeling.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE PAGES

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; ...

2016-06-03

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Consideration effect of wind farms on the network reconfiguration in the distribution systems in an uncertain environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Kianoosh; Kavousifard, Farzaneh; Abbasi, Alireza

2017-09-01

This article proposes a novel probabilistic Distribution Feeder Reconfiguration (DFR) based method to consider the uncertainty impacts into account with high accuracy. In order to achieve the set aim, different scenarios are generated to demonstrate the degree of uncertainty in the investigated elements which are known as the active and reactive load consumption and the active power generation of the wind power units. Notably, a normal Probability Density Function (PDF) based on the desired accuracy is divided into several class intervals for each uncertain parameter. Besides, the Weiball PDF is utilised for modelling wind generators and taking the variation impacts of the power production in wind generators. The proposed problem is solved based on Fuzzy Adaptive Modified Particle Swarm Optimisation to find the most optimal switching scheme during the Multi-objective DFR. Moreover, this paper holds two suggestions known as new mutation methods to adjust the inertia weight of PSO by the fuzzy rules to enhance its ability in global searching within the entire search space.

The origin of anomalous transport in porous media - is it possible to make a priori predictions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bijeljic, Branko; Blunt, Martin

2013-04-01

Despite the range of significant applications of flow and solute transport in porous rock, including contaminant migration in subsurface hydrology, geological storage of carbon-dioxide and tracer studies and miscible displacement in oil recovery, even the qualitative behavior in the subsurface is uncertain. The non-Fickian nature of dispersive processes in heterogeneous porous media has been demonstrated experimentally from pore to field scales. However, the exact relationship between structure, velocity field and transport has not been fully understood. Advances in X ray imaging techniques made it possible to accurately describe structure of the pore space, helping predict flow and anomalous transport behaviour using direct simulation. This is demonstrated by simulating solute transport through 3D images of rock samples, with resolutions of a few microns, representing geological media of increasing pore-scale complexity: a sandpack, a sandstone, and a carbonate. A novel methodology is developed that predicts solute transport at the pore scale by using probability density functions of displacement (propagators) and probability density function of transit time between the image voxels, and relates it to probability density function of normalized local velocity. A key advantage is that full information on velocity and solute concentration is retained in the models. The methodology includes solving for Stokes flow by Open Foam, solving for advective transport by the novel streamline simulation method, and superimposing diffusive transport diffusion by the random walk method. It is shown how computed propagators for beadpack, sandstone and carbonate depend on the spread in the velocity distribution. A narrow velocity distribution in the beadpack leads to the least anomalous behaviour where the propagators rapidly become Gaussian; the wider velocity distribution in the sandstone gives rise to a small immobile concentration peak, and a large secondary mobile peak moving at approximately the average flow speed; in the carbonate with the widest velocity distribution the stagnant concentration peak is persistent, while the emergence of a smaller secondary mobile peak is observed, leading to a highly anomalous behavior. This defines different generic nature of non-Fickian transport in the three media and quantifies the effect of pore structure on transport. Moreover, the propagators obtained by the model are in a very good agreement with the propagators measured on beadpack, Bentheimer sandstone and Portland carbonate cores in nuclear magnetic resonance experiments. These findings demonstrate that it is possible to make a priori predictions of anomalous transport in porous media. The importance of these findings for transport in complex carbonate rock micro-CT images is discussed, classifying them in terms of degree of anomalous transport that can have an impact at the field scale. Extensions to reactive transport will be discussed.

Spring and summer contrast in new particle formation over nine forest areas in North America

EPA Science Inventory

Recent laboratory chamber studies indicate a significant role for highly oxidized low volatility organics in new particle formation (NPF), but the actual role of these highly oxidized low volatility organics in atmospheric NPF remains uncertain. Here, particle size distributions ...

Transient flow conditions in probabilistic wellhead protection: importance and ways to manage spatial and temporal uncertainty in capture zone delineation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Rodriguez-Pretelin, A.; Nowak, W.

2012-12-01

"From an engineering standpoint, the quantification of uncertainty is extremely important not only because it allows estimating risk but mostly because it allows taking optimal decisions in an uncertain framework" (Renard, 2007). The most common way to account for uncertainty in the field of subsurface hydrology and wellhead protection is to randomize spatial parameters, e.g. the log-hydraulic conductivity or porosity. This enables water managers to take robust decisions in delineating wellhead protection zones with rationally chosen safety margins in the spirit of probabilistic risk management. Probabilistic wellhead protection zones are commonly based on steady-state flow fields. However, several past studies showed that transient flow conditions may substantially influence the shape and extent of catchments. Therefore, we believe they should be accounted for in the probabilistic assessment and in the delineation process. The aim of our work is to show the significance of flow transients and to investigate the interplay between spatial uncertainty and flow transients in wellhead protection zone delineation. To this end, we advance our concept of probabilistic capture zone delineation (Enzenhoefer et al., 2012) that works with capture probabilities and other probabilistic criteria for delineation. The extended framework is able to evaluate the time fraction that any point on a map falls within a capture zone. In short, we separate capture probabilities into spatial/statistical and time-related frequencies. This will provide water managers additional information on how to manage a well catchment in the light of possible hazard conditions close to the capture boundary under uncertain and time-variable flow conditions. In order to save computational costs, we take advantage of super-positioned flow components with time-variable coefficients. We assume an instantaneous development of steady-state flow conditions after each temporal change in driving forces, following an idea by Festger and Walter, 2002. These quasi steady-state flow fields are cast into a geostatistical Monte Carlo framework to admit and evaluate the influence of parameter uncertainty on the delineation process. Furthermore, this framework enables conditioning on observed data with any conditioning scheme, such as rejection sampling, Ensemble Kalman Filters, etc. To further reduce the computational load, we use the reverse formulation of advective-dispersive transport. We simulate the reverse transport by particle tracking random walk in order to avoid numerical dispersion to account for well arrival times.

Imprecision and Uncertainty in the UFO Database Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Gyseghem, Nancy; De Caluwe, Rita

1998-01-01

Discusses how imprecision and uncertainty are dealt with in the UFO (Uncertainty and Fuzziness in an Object-oriented) database model. Such information is expressed by means of possibility distributions, and modeled by means of the proposed concept of "role objects." The role objects model uncertain, tentative information about objects,…

Thermally induced structural transitions in cotton fiber revealed by a finite mixture model of fiber tenacity distribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Much processing of cotton fibrous materials accompanies heat treatments. Despite their critical influence on the properties of the material, the structural responses of cotton fiber to elevated temperatures remain uncertain. This study demonstrated that modeling the temperature dependence of the fib...

Uncertainty quantification of crustal scale thermo-chemical properties in Southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mather, B.; Moresi, L. N.; Rayner, P. J.

2017-12-01

The thermo-chemical properties of the crust are essential to understanding the mechanical and thermal state of the lithosphere. The uncertainties associated with these parameters are connected to the available geophysical observations and a priori information to constrain the objective function. Often, it is computationally efficient to reduce the parameter space by mapping large portions of the crust into lithologies that have assumed homogeneity. However, the boundaries of these lithologies are, in themselves, uncertain and should also be included in the inverse problem. We assimilate geological uncertainties from an a priori geological model of Southeast Australia with geophysical uncertainties from S-wave tomography and 174 heat flow observations within an adjoint inversion framework. This reduces the computational cost of inverting high dimensional probability spaces, compared to probabilistic inversion techniques that operate in the `forward' mode, but at the sacrifice of uncertainty and covariance information. We overcome this restriction using a sensitivity analysis, that perturbs our observations and a priori information within their probability distributions, to estimate the posterior uncertainty of thermo-chemical parameters in the crust.

Uncertainty visualisation in the Model Web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerharz, L. E.; Autermann, C.; Hopmann, H.; Stasch, C.; Pebesma, E.

2012-04-01

Visualisation of geospatial data as maps is a common way to communicate spatially distributed information. If temporal and furthermore uncertainty information are included in the data, efficient visualisation methods are required. For uncertain spatial and spatio-temporal data, numerous visualisation methods have been developed and proposed, but only few tools for visualisation of data in a standardised way exist. Furthermore, usually they are realised as thick clients, and lack functionality of handling data coming from web services as it is envisaged in the Model Web. We present an interactive web tool for visualisation of uncertain spatio-temporal data developed in the UncertWeb project. The client is based on the OpenLayers JavaScript library. OpenLayers provides standard map windows and navigation tools, i.e. pan, zoom in/out, to allow interactive control for the user. Further interactive methods are implemented using jStat, a JavaScript library for statistics plots developed in UncertWeb, and flot. To integrate the uncertainty information into existing standards for geospatial data, the Uncertainty Markup Language (UncertML) was applied in combination with OGC Observations&Measurements 2.0 and JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) encodings for vector and NetCDF for raster data. The client offers methods to visualise uncertain vector and raster data with temporal information. Uncertainty information considered for the tool are probabilistic and quantified attribute uncertainties which can be provided as realisations or samples, full probability distributions functions and statistics. Visualisation is supported for uncertain continuous and categorical data. In the client, the visualisation is realised using a combination of different methods. Based on previously conducted usability studies, a differentiation between expert (in statistics or mapping) and non-expert users has been indicated as useful. Therefore, two different modes are realised together in the tool: (i) adjacent maps showing data and uncertainty separately, and (ii) multidimensional mapping providing different visualisation methods in combination to explore the spatial, temporal and uncertainty distribution of the data. Adjacent maps allow a simpler visualisation by separating value and uncertainty maps for non-experts and a first overview. The multidimensional approach allows a more complex exploration of the data for experts by browsing through the different dimensions. It offers the visualisation of maps, statistic plots and time series in different windows and sliders to interactively move through time, space and uncertainty (thresholds).

Agricultural development and emigration: rhetoric and reality.

PubMed

Thompson, G; Amon, R; Martin, P L

1986-01-01

"The untested premise of trade liberalizing U.S. development programs such as the Caribbean Basin Initiative is that commodity trade can substitute for international labor migration. Analysis of U.S. tomato producing regions in Sinaloa, Mexico and Florida suggests that the effect of trade liberalization on international labor migration is uncertain." The emphasis is on how such development projects might affect the flow of illegal migrants to the United States. excerpt

Annual Research Briefs - 2006

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

IACCARINO AND Q. WANG 3 Strain and stress analysis of uncertain engineering systems . D. GHOSH, C. FARHAT AND P. AVERY 17 Separated flow in a three...research in predictive science in complex systems , CTR has strived to maintain a critical mass in numerical analysis , computer science and physics based... analysis for a linear problem: heat conduction The design and analysis of complex engineering systems is challenging not only be- cause of the physical

The evolution of sensory divergence in the context of limited gene flow in the bumblebee bat

PubMed Central

Puechmaille, Sébastien J.; Gouilh, Meriadeg Ar; Piyapan, Piyathip; Yokubol, Medhi; Mie, Khin Mie; Bates, Paul J.; Satasook, Chutamas; Nwe, Tin; Bu, Si Si Hla; Mackie, Iain J.; Petit, Eric J.; Teeling, Emma C.

2011-01-01

The sensory drive theory of speciation predicts that populations of the same species inhabiting different environments can differ in sensory traits, and that this sensory difference can ultimately drive speciation. However, even in the best-known examples of sensory ecology driven speciation, it is uncertain whether the variation in sensory traits is the cause or the consequence of a reduction in levels of gene flow. Here we show strong genetic differentiation, no gene flow and large echolocation differences between the allopatric Myanmar and Thai populations of the world's smallest mammal, Craseonycteris thonglongyai, and suggest that geographic isolation most likely preceded sensory divergence. Within the geographically continuous Thai population, we show that geographic distance has a primary role in limiting gene flow rather than echolocation divergence. In line with sensory-driven speciation models, we suggest that in C. thonglongyai, limited gene flow creates the suitable conditions that favour the evolution of sensory divergence via local adaptation. PMID:22146392

Uncertainty quantification-based robust aerodynamic optimization of laminar flow nacelle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Neng; Tao, Yang; Liu, Zhiyong; Lin, Jun

2018-05-01

The aerodynamic performance of laminar flow nacelle is highly sensitive to uncertain working conditions, especially the surface roughness. An efficient robust aerodynamic optimization method on the basis of non-deterministic computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation and Efficient Global Optimization (EGO)algorithm was employed. A non-intrusive polynomial chaos method is used in conjunction with an existing well-verified CFD module to quantify the uncertainty propagation in the flow field. This paper investigates the roughness modeling behavior with the γ-Ret shear stress transport model including modeling flow transition and surface roughness effects. The roughness effects are modeled to simulate sand grain roughness. A Class-Shape Transformation-based parametrical description of the nacelle contour as part of an automatic design evaluation process is presented. A Design-of-Experiments (DoE) was performed and surrogate model by Kriging method was built. The new design nacelle process demonstrates that significant improvements of both mean and variance of the efficiency are achieved and the proposed method can be applied to laminar flow nacelle design successfully.

Reviews

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2007-07-01

WE RECOMMEND God: The Failed Hypothesis A book that applies scientific logic to the search for a creator Go with the Flow This CD-ROM proves a great resource for teaching fluids Collins GCSE Student Book for EdExcel 360 Additional Science An attractive update that will sit well in modern classrooms The Rough Guide to Climate Change This book contains a thorough study of the must-teach subject InspireData Presentation software ideal for analysing data in the field WORTH A LOOK Uncertain Science...Uncertain World A book to persuade the public that unanswered questions are not a failure of science or scientists Fisher Space Pen An interesting teaching resource and a nice bit of stationery HANDLE WITH CARE Russian Space Pen A joke gift at best—no physics here IGCSE Physics for EdExcel Dull, old-fashioned approach to teaching the new qualification WEB WATCH How news headlines can prove a valuable tool to get pupils interested in a subject

A robust H∞-tracking design for uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with unknown premise variables using descriptor redundancy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan Asemani, Mohammad; Johari Majd, Vahid

2015-12-01

This paper addresses a robust H∞ fuzzy observer-based tracking design problem for uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with external disturbances. To have a practical observer-based controller, the premise variables of the system are assumed to be not measurable in general, which leads to a more complex design process. The tracker is synthesised based on a fuzzy Lyapunov function approach and non-parallel distributed compensation (non-PDC) scheme. Using the descriptor redundancy approach, the robust stability conditions are derived in the form of strict linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) even in the presence of uncertainties in the system, input, and output matrices simultaneously. Numerical simulations are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Handling Uncertain Gross Margin and Water Demand in Agricultural Water Resources Management using Robust Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaerani, D.; Lesmana, E.; Tressiana, N.

2018-03-01

In this paper, an application of Robust Optimization in agricultural water resource management problem under gross margin and water demand uncertainty is presented. Water resource management is a series of activities that includes planning, developing, distributing and managing the use of water resource optimally. Water resource management for agriculture can be one of the efforts to optimize the benefits of agricultural output. The objective function of agricultural water resource management problem is to maximizing total benefits by water allocation to agricultural areas covered by the irrigation network in planning horizon. Due to gross margin and water demand uncertainty, we assume that the uncertain data lies within ellipsoidal uncertainty set. We employ robust counterpart methodology to get the robust optimal solution.

Output Feedback-Based Boundary Control of Uncertain Coupled Semilinear Parabolic PDE Using Neurodynamic Programming.

PubMed

Talaei, Behzad; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Singler, John

2018-04-01

In this paper, neurodynamic programming-based output feedback boundary control of distributed parameter systems governed by uncertain coupled semilinear parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under Neumann or Dirichlet boundary control conditions is introduced. First, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is formulated in the original PDE domain and the optimal control policy is derived using the value functional as the solution of the HJB equation. Subsequently, a novel observer is developed to estimate the system states given the uncertain nonlinearity in PDE dynamics and measured outputs. Consequently, the suboptimal boundary control policy is obtained by forward-in-time estimation of the value functional using a neural network (NN)-based online approximator and estimated state vector obtained from the NN observer. Novel adaptive tuning laws in continuous time are proposed for learning the value functional online to satisfy the HJB equation along system trajectories while ensuring the closed-loop stability. Local uniformly ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system is verified by using Lyapunov theory. The performance of the proposed controller is verified via simulation on an unstable coupled diffusion reaction process.

Secure estimation, control and optimization of uncertain cyber-physical systems with applications to power networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, Ahmad Fayez

Transportation networks, wearable devices, energy systems, and the book you are reading now are all ubiquitous cyber-physical systems (CPS). These inherently uncertain systems combine physical phenomena with communication, data processing, control and optimization. Many CPSs are controlled and monitored by real-time control systems that use communication networks to transmit and receive data from systems modeled by physical processes. Existing studies have addressed a breadth of challenges related to the design of CPSs. However, there is a lack of studies on uncertain CPSs subject to dynamic unknown inputs and cyber-attacks---an artifact of the insertion of communication networks and the growing complexity of CPSs. The objective of this dissertation is to create secure, computational foundations for uncertain CPSs by establishing a framework to control, estimate and optimize the operation of these systems. With major emphasis on power networks, the dissertation deals with the design of secure computational methods for uncertain CPSs, focusing on three crucial issues---(1) cyber-security and risk-mitigation, (2) network-induced time-delays and perturbations and (3) the encompassed extreme time-scales. The dissertation consists of four parts. In the first part, we investigate dynamic state estimation (DSE) methods and rigorously examine the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed routines under dynamic attack-vectors and unknown inputs. In the second part, and utilizing high-frequency measurements in smart grids and the developed DSE methods in the first part, we present a risk mitigation strategy that minimizes the encountered threat levels, while ensuring the continual observability of the system through available, safe measurements. The developed methods in the first two parts rely on the assumption that the uncertain CPS is not experiencing time-delays, an assumption that might fail under certain conditions. To overcome this challenge, networked unknown input observers---observers/estimators for uncertain CPSs---are designed such that the effect of time-delays and cyber-induced perturbations are minimized, enabling secure DSE and risk mitigation in the first two parts. The final part deals with the extreme time-scales encompassed in CPSs, generally, and smart grids, specifically. Operational decisions for long time-scales can adversely affect the security of CPSs for faster time-scales. We present a model that jointly describes steady-state operation and transient stability by combining convex optimal power flow with semidefinite programming formulations of an optimal control problem. This approach can be jointly utilized with the aforementioned parts of the dissertation work, considering time-delays and DSE. The research contributions of this dissertation furnish CPS stakeholders with insights on the design and operation of uncertain CPSs, whilst guaranteeing the system's real-time safety. Finally, although many of the results of this dissertation are tailored to power systems, the results are general enough to be applied for a variety of uncertain CPSs.

A constrained robust least squares approach for contaminant release history identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Alexander Y.; Painter, Scott L.; Wittmeyer, Gordon W.

2006-04-01

Contaminant source identification is an important type of inverse problem in groundwater modeling and is subject to both data and model uncertainty. Model uncertainty was rarely considered in the previous studies. In this work, a robust framework for solving contaminant source recovery problems is introduced. The contaminant source identification problem is first cast into one of solving uncertain linear equations, where the response matrix is constructed using a superposition technique. The formulation presented here is general and is applicable to any porous media flow and transport solvers. The robust least squares (RLS) estimator, which originated in the field of robust identification, directly accounts for errors arising from model uncertainty and has been shown to significantly reduce the sensitivity of the optimal solution to perturbations in model and data. In this work, a new variant of RLS, the constrained robust least squares (CRLS), is formulated for solving uncertain linear equations. CRLS allows for additional constraints, such as nonnegativity, to be imposed. The performance of CRLS is demonstrated through one- and two-dimensional test problems. When the system is ill-conditioned and uncertain, it is found that CRLS gave much better performance than its classical counterpart, the nonnegative least squares. The source identification framework developed in this work thus constitutes a reliable tool for recovering source release histories in real applications.

The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burges, S. J.

2016-12-01

Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

Pacific Yew: A Facultative Riparian Conifer with an Uncertain Future

Treesearch

Stanley Scher; Bert Schwarzschild

1989-01-01

Increasing demands for Pacific yew bark, a source of an anticancer agent, have generated interest in defining the yew resource and in exploring strategies to conserve this species. The distribution, riparian requirements and ecosystem functions of yew populations in coastal and inland forests of northern California are outlined and alternative approaches to conserving...

Uncertain Educational Returns in a Developing Economy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohapatra, Sandeep; Luckert, Martin K.

2012-01-01

This paper estimates the distribution of educational returns by gender for India. While previous studies focus on mean returns, the variance of educational returns has important implications for policy-making and micro-level decision making with respect to education. If the variance of educational returns is large, it can leave large sections of…

An "assemblage toxicity index" to improve characterization of effects of atrazine on aquatic plant communities

EPA Science Inventory

Aquatic risk assessments are made uncertain by the use of measures of effect for only one level of effect and by the use of only one percentile in sensitivity distributions for the variation of this measure of effect across an assemblage of taxa. This leaves undefined the severi...

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strat...

Deep phylogeographic divergence and cytonuclear discordance in the grasshopper Oedaleus decorus.

PubMed

Kindler, Eveline; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Heckel, Gerald

2012-11-01

The grasshopper Oedaleus decorus is a thermophilic insect with a large, mostly south-Palaearctic distribution range, stretching from the Mediterranean regions in Europe to Central-Asia and China. In this study, we analyzed the extent of phylogenetic divergence and the recent evolutionary history of the species based on 274 specimens from 26 localities across the distribution range in Europe. Phylogenetic relationships were determined using sequences of two mitochondrial loci (ctr, ND2) with neighbour-joining and Bayesian methods. Additionally, genetic differentiation was analyzed based on mitochondrial DNA and 11 microsatellite markers using F-statistics, model-free multivariate and model-based Bayesian clustering approaches. Phylogenetic analyses detected consistently two highly divergent, allopatrically distributed lineages within O. decorus. The divergence among these Western and Eastern lineages meeting in the region of the Alps was similar to the divergence of each lineage to the sister species O. asiaticus. Genetic differentiation for ctr was extremely high between Western and Eastern grasshopper populations (F(ct)=0.95). Microsatellite markers detected much lower but nevertheless very significant genetic structure among population samples. The nuclear data also demonstrated a case of cytonuclear discordance because the affiliation with mitochondrial lineages was incongruent in Northern Italy. Taken together these results provide evidence of an ancient separation within Oedaleus and either historical introgression of mtDNA among lineages and/or ongoing sex-specific gene flow in this grasshopper. Our study stresses the importance of multilocus approaches for unravelling the history and status of taxa of uncertain evolutionary divergence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of blood flow distribution asymmetry and vascular geometry in patients with Fontan circulation using 4-D flow MRI

PubMed Central

Jarvis, Kelly; Schnell, Susanne; Barker, Alex J.; Garcia, Julio; Lorenz, Ramona; Rose, Michael; Chowdhary, Varun; Carr, James; Robinson, Joshua D.; Rigsby, Cynthia K.; Markl, Michael

2016-01-01

Background Asymmetrical caval to pulmonary blood flow is suspected to cause complications in patients with Fontan circulation. The aim of this study was to test the feasibility of 4-D flow MRI for characterizing the relationship between 3-D blood flow distribution and vascular geometry. Objective We hypothesized that both flow distribution and geometry can be calculated with low interobserver variability and will detect a direct relationship between flow distribution and Fontan geometry. Materials and methods Four-dimensional flow MRI was acquired in 10 Fontan patients (age: 16±4 years [mean ± standard deviation; range 9–21 years]). The Fontan connection was isolated by 3-D segmentation to evaluate flow distribution from the inferior vena cava (IVC) and superior vena cava (SVC) to the left and right pulmonary arteries (LPA, RPA) and to characterize geometry (cross-sectional area, caval offset, vessel angle). Results Flow distribution results indicated SVC flow tended toward the RPA while IVC flow was more evenly distributed (SVC to RPA: 78%±28 [9–100], IVC to LPA: 54%±28 [4–98]). There was a significant relationship between pulmonary artery cross-sectional area and flow distribution (IVC to RPA: R2=0.50, P=0.02; SVC to LPA: R2=0.81, P=0.0004). Good agreement was found between observers and for flow distribution when compared to net flow values. Conclusion Four-dimensional (4-D) flow MRI was able to detect relationships between flow distribution and vessel geometry. Future studies are warranted to investigate the potential of patient specific hemodynamic analysis to improve diagnostic capability. PMID:27350377

Rapid Decisions From Experience

PubMed Central

Zeigenfuse, Matthew D.; Pleskac, Timothy J.; Liu, Taosheng

2014-01-01

In many everyday decisions, people quickly integrate noisy samples of information to form a preference among alternatives that offer uncertain rewards. Here, we investigated this decision process using the Flash Gambling Task (FGT), in which participants made a series of choices between a certain payoff and an uncertain alternative that produced a normal distribution of payoffs. For each choice, participants experienced the distribution of payoffs via rapid samples updated every 50 ms. We show that people can make these rapid decisions from experience and that the decision process is consistent with a sequential sampling process. Results also reveal a dissociation between these preferential decisions and equivalent perceptual decisions where participants had to determine which alternatives contained more dots on average. To account for this dissociation, we developed a sequential sampling rank-dependent utility model, which showed that participants in the FGT attended more to larger potential payoffs than participants in the perceptual task despite being given equivalent information. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of computational models of preferential choice and a more complete understanding of experience-based decision making. PMID:24549141

Annual Progress Report, Fiscal Year 1978 (U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine, Natick, MA)

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-10-01

pulmonary ventilation via the " central chemoreceptors" (6.8) and to regulate cerebral blood flow (8,12). The " central chemoreceptors" for respiration are...decreases in illumination. Progress: The Hidden Shapes Test (I), the Maudsley Personality Inventory (2) and a personal history questionnaire were...hypoglycemia has been encountered occasionally in heatstroke but its pathogenesis is still uncertain. The contribution of central glucopenia to heatstroke coma

Derivation of low flow frequency distributions under human activities and its implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Shida; Liu, Pan; Pan, Zhengke; Ming, Bo; Guo, Shenglian; Xiong, Lihua

2017-06-01

Low flow, refers to a minimum streamflow in dry seasons, is crucial to water supply, agricultural irrigation and navigation. Human activities, such as groundwater pumping, influence low flow severely. In order to derive the low flow frequency distribution functions under human activities, this study incorporates groundwater pumping and return flow as variables in the recession process. Steps are as follows: (1) the original low flow without human activities is assumed to follow a Pearson type three distribution, (2) the probability distribution of climatic dry spell periods is derived based on a base flow recession model, (3) the base flow recession model is updated under human activities, and (4) the low flow distribution under human activities is obtained based on the derived probability distribution of dry spell periods and the updated base flow recession model. Linear and nonlinear reservoir models are used to describe the base flow recession, respectively. The Wudinghe basin is chosen for the case study, with daily streamflow observations during 1958-2000. Results show that human activities change the location parameter of the low flow frequency curve for the linear reservoir model, while alter the frequency distribution function for the nonlinear one. It is indicated that alter the parameters of the low flow frequency distribution is not always feasible to tackle the changing environment.

Local flow regulation and irrigation raise global human water consumption and footprint.

PubMed

Jaramillo, Fernando; Destouni, Georgia

2015-12-04

Flow regulation and irrigation alter local freshwater conditions, but their global effects are highly uncertain. We investigated these global effects from 1901 to 2008, using hydroclimatic observations in 100 large hydrological basins. Globally, we find consistent and dominant effects of increasing relative evapotranspiration from both activities, and decreasing temporal runoff variability from flow regulation. The evapotranspiration effect increases the long-term average human consumption of fresh water by 3563 ± 979 km(3)/year from 1901-1954 to 1955-2008. This increase raises a recent estimate of the current global water footprint of humanity by around 18%, to 10,688 ± 979 km(3)/year. The results highlight the global impact of local water-use activities and call for their relevant account in Earth system modeling. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Predicting the impact of land management decisions on overland flow generation: Implications for cesium migration in forested Fukushima watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R.; Steefel, Carl I.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Birkholzer, Jens T.

2018-03-01

The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) change on environmental systems across the land surface's "critical zone" are highly uncertain, often making prediction and risk management decision difficult. In a series of numerical experiments with an integrated hydrologic model, overland flow generation is quantified for both present day and forest thinning scenarios. A typhoon storm event in a watershed near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant is used as an example application in which the interplay between LULC change and overland flow generation is important given that sediment-bound radionuclides may cause secondary contamination via surface water transport. Results illustrate the nonlinearity of the integrated system spanning from the deep groundwater to the atmosphere, and provide quantitative tools when determining the tradeoffs of different risk-mitigation strategies.

Interplanetary particles and fields, November 22 to December 6, 1977 - Helios, Voyager and Imp observations between 0.6 and 1.6 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burlaga, L.; Lepping, R.; Weber, R.; Armstrong, T.; Goodrich, C.; Sullivan, J.; Gurnett, D.; Kellogg, P.; Keppler, E.; Mariani, F.

1980-01-01

The paper presents a wealth of data obtained at approximately 0.6, 1, and 1.6 AU by Helios 1 and 2, Voyager 1 and 2, and Imp 7 and 8, describing the evolution and interactions of particles, flows, and fields in the period 22 November to 6 December 1977. Three flow systems were observed in the period under consideration: (1) a corotating stream and a stream interface associated with a coronal hole; (2) a shock wave and an energetic particle event associated with a 2B flare; and (3) an isolated shock wave of uncertain origin. These phenomena are discussed in some detail.

Optimal Capacitor Bank Capacity and Placement in Distribution Systems with High Distributed Solar Power Penetration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, Brian S; Mather, Barry A; Cho, Gyu-Jung

Capacitor banks have been generally installed and utilized to support distribution voltage during period of higher load or on longer, higher impedance, feeders. Installations of distributed energy resources in distribution systems are rapidly increasing, and many of these generation resources have variable and uncertain power output. These generators can significantly change the voltage profile across a feeder, and therefore when a new capacitor bank is needed analysis of optimal capacity and location of the capacitor bank is required. In this paper, we model a particular distribution system including essential equipment. An optimization method is adopted to determine the best capacitymore » and location sets of the newly installed capacitor banks, in the presence of distributed solar power generation. Finally we analyze the optimal capacitor banks configuration through the optimization and simulation results.« less

A geostatistics-informed hierarchical sensitivity analysis method for complex groundwater flow and transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Heng; Chen, Xingyuan; Ye, Ming; Song, Xuehang; Zachara, John M.

2017-05-01

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for development and improvement of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study, we developed a new sensitivity analysis method that integrates the concept of variance-based method with a hierarchical uncertainty quantification framework. Different uncertain inputs are grouped and organized into a multilayer framework based on their characteristics and dependency relationships to reduce the dimensionality of the sensitivity analysis. A set of new sensitivity indices are defined for the grouped inputs using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially distributed input variables.

A Geostatistics-Informed Hierarchical Sensitivity Analysis Method for Complex Groundwater Flow and Transport Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, H.; Chen, X.; Ye, M.; Song, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2017-12-01

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for development and improvement of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study we developed a new sensitivity analysis method that integrates the concept of variance-based method with a hierarchical uncertainty quantification framework. Different uncertain inputs are grouped and organized into a multi-layer framework based on their characteristics and dependency relationships to reduce the dimensionality of the sensitivity analysis. A set of new sensitivity indices are defined for the grouped inputs using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially-distributed input variables.

Terminal Sliding Mode-Based Consensus Tracking Control for Networked Uncertain Mechanical Systems on Digraphs.

PubMed

Chen, Gang; Song, Yongduan; Guan, Yanfeng

2018-03-01

This brief investigates the finite-time consensus tracking control problem for networked uncertain mechanical systems on digraphs. A new terminal sliding-mode-based cooperative control scheme is developed to guarantee that the tracking errors converge to an arbitrarily small bound around zero in finite time. All the networked systems can have different dynamics and all the dynamics are unknown. A neural network is used at each node to approximate the local unknown dynamics. The control schemes are implemented in a fully distributed manner. The proposed control method eliminates some limitations in the existing terminal sliding-mode-based consensus control methods and extends the existing analysis methods to the case of directed graphs. Simulation results on networked robot manipulators are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed control algorithms.

Identification of high-permeability subsurface structures with multiple point geostatistics and normal score ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zovi, Francesco; Camporese, Matteo; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Huisman, Johan Alexander; Salandin, Paolo

2017-05-01

Alluvial aquifers are often characterized by the presence of braided high-permeable paleo-riverbeds, which constitute an interconnected preferential flow network whose localization is of fundamental importance to predict flow and transport dynamics. Classic geostatistical approaches based on two-point correlation (i.e., the variogram) cannot describe such particular shapes. In contrast, multiple point geostatistics can describe almost any kind of shape using the empirical probability distribution derived from a training image. However, even with a correct training image the exact positions of the channels are uncertain. State information like groundwater levels can constrain the channel positions using inverse modeling or data assimilation, but the method should be able to handle non-Gaussianity of the parameter distribution. Here the normal score ensemble Kalman filter (NS-EnKF) was chosen as the inverse conditioning algorithm to tackle this issue. Multiple point geostatistics and NS-EnKF have already been tested in synthetic examples, but in this study they are used for the first time in a real-world case study. The test site is an alluvial unconfined aquifer in northeastern Italy with an extension of approximately 3 km2. A satellite training image showing the braid shapes of the nearby river and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) images were used as conditioning data to provide information on channel shape, size, and position. Measured groundwater levels were assimilated with the NS-EnKF to update the spatially distributed groundwater parameters (hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficients). Results from the study show that the inversion based on multiple point geostatistics does not outperform the one with a multiGaussian model and that the information from the ERT images did not improve site characterization. These results were further evaluated with a synthetic study that mimics the experimental site. The synthetic results showed that only for a much larger number of conditioning piezometric heads, multiple point geostatistics and ERT could improve aquifer characterization. This shows that state of the art stochastic methods need to be supported by abundant and high-quality subsurface data.

Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

2014-12-01

Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

Co-optimization of CO 2 -EOR and Storage Processes under Geological Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert; Will, Robert

This paper presents an integrated numerical framework to co-optimize EOR and CO 2 storage performance in the Farnsworth field unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. The framework includes a field-scale compositional reservoir flow model, an uncertainty quantification model and a neural network optimization process. The reservoir flow model has been constructed based on the field geophysical, geological, and engineering data. A laboratory fluid analysis was tuned to an equation of state and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). A history match of primary and secondary recovery processes was conducted to estimate the reservoir and multiphase flow parametersmore » as the baseline case for analyzing the effect of recycling produced gas, infill drilling and water alternating gas (WAG) cycles on oil recovery and CO 2 storage. A multi-objective optimization model was defined for maximizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The uncertainty quantification model comprising the Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis, was used to study the effects of uncertain variables on the defined objective functions. Uncertain variables such as bottom hole injection pressure, WAG cycle, injection and production group rates, and gas-oil ratio among others were selected. The most significant variables were selected as control variables to be used for the optimization process. A neural network optimization algorithm was utilized to optimize the objective function both with and without geological uncertainty. The vertical permeability anisotropy (Kv/Kh) was selected as one of the uncertain parameters in the optimization process. The simulation results were compared to a scenario baseline case that predicted CO 2 storage of 74%. The results showed an improved approach for optimizing oil recovery and CO 2 storage in the FWU. The optimization process predicted more than 94% of CO 2 storage and most importantly about 28% of incremental oil recovery. The sensitivity analysis reduced the number of control variables to decrease computational time. A risk aversion factor was used to represent results at various confidence levels to assist management in the decision-making process. The defined objective functions were proved to be a robust approach to co-optimize oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The Farnsworth CO 2 project will serve as a benchmark for future CO 2–EOR or CCUS projects in the Anadarko basin or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less

Co-optimization of CO 2 -EOR and Storage Processes under Geological Uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert; Will, Robert; ...

2017-07-01

This paper presents an integrated numerical framework to co-optimize EOR and CO 2 storage performance in the Farnsworth field unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. The framework includes a field-scale compositional reservoir flow model, an uncertainty quantification model and a neural network optimization process. The reservoir flow model has been constructed based on the field geophysical, geological, and engineering data. A laboratory fluid analysis was tuned to an equation of state and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). A history match of primary and secondary recovery processes was conducted to estimate the reservoir and multiphase flow parametersmore » as the baseline case for analyzing the effect of recycling produced gas, infill drilling and water alternating gas (WAG) cycles on oil recovery and CO 2 storage. A multi-objective optimization model was defined for maximizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The uncertainty quantification model comprising the Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis, was used to study the effects of uncertain variables on the defined objective functions. Uncertain variables such as bottom hole injection pressure, WAG cycle, injection and production group rates, and gas-oil ratio among others were selected. The most significant variables were selected as control variables to be used for the optimization process. A neural network optimization algorithm was utilized to optimize the objective function both with and without geological uncertainty. The vertical permeability anisotropy (Kv/Kh) was selected as one of the uncertain parameters in the optimization process. The simulation results were compared to a scenario baseline case that predicted CO 2 storage of 74%. The results showed an improved approach for optimizing oil recovery and CO 2 storage in the FWU. The optimization process predicted more than 94% of CO 2 storage and most importantly about 28% of incremental oil recovery. The sensitivity analysis reduced the number of control variables to decrease computational time. A risk aversion factor was used to represent results at various confidence levels to assist management in the decision-making process. The defined objective functions were proved to be a robust approach to co-optimize oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The Farnsworth CO 2 project will serve as a benchmark for future CO 2–EOR or CCUS projects in the Anadarko basin or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less

Data-driven diagnostics of terrestrial carbon dynamics over North America

Treesearch

Jingfeng Xiao; Scott V. Ollinger; Steve Frolking; George C. Hurtt; David Y. Hollinger; Kenneth J. Davis; Yude Pan; Xiaoyang Zhang; Feng Deng; Jiquan Chen; Dennis D. Baldocchi; Bevery E. Law; M. Altaf Arain; Ankur R. Desai; Andrew D. Richardson; Ge Sun; Brian Amiro; Hank Margolis; Lianhong Gu; Russell L. Scott; Peter D. Blanken; Andrew E. Suyker

2014-01-01

The exchange of carbon dioxide is a key measure of ecosystem metabolism and a critical intersection between the terrestrial biosphere and the Earth's climate. Despite the general agreement that the terrestrial ecosystems in North America provide a sizeable carbon sink, the size and distribution of the sink remain uncertain. We use a data-driven approach to upscale...

Improving flow distribution in influent channels using computational fluid dynamics.

PubMed

Park, No-Suk; Yoon, Sukmin; Jeong, Woochang; Lee, Seungjae

2016-10-01

Although the flow distribution in an influent channel where the inflow is split into each treatment process in a wastewater treatment plant greatly affects the efficiency of the process, and a weir is the typical structure for the flow distribution, to the authors' knowledge, there is a paucity of research on the flow distribution in an open channel with a weir. In this study, the influent channel of a real-scale wastewater treatment plant was used, installing a suppressed rectangular weir that has a horizontal crest to cross the full channel width. The flow distribution in the influent channel was analyzed using a validated computational fluid dynamics model to investigate (1) the comparison of single-phase and two-phase simulation, (2) the improved procedure of the prototype channel, and (3) the effect of the inflow rate on flow distribution. The results show that two-phase simulation is more reliable due to the description of the free-surface fluctuations. It should first be considered for improving flow distribution to prevent a short-circuit flow, and the difference in the kinetic energy with the inflow rate makes flow distribution trends different. The authors believe that this case study is helpful for improving flow distribution in an influent channel.

Global Change Drought in the Southwest: New Management Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, B. H.; Overpeck, J. T.

2015-12-01

Long held worries about future runoff declines in the Colorado River under climate change are proving to be more than just theory. Fifteen years into this century flows of the Colorado are already declining due mostly to unprecedented temperatures, and as warming proceeds, declines in river flow will grow larger. Temperature-driven droughts, some lasting decades and much more severe than the current 15-year drought, will also become more commonplace if climate change continues unabated. Current projections of future water availability almost universally understate the risk of large Colorado flow reductions under business-as-usual warming. Betting on highly uncertain projections of increased precipitation to overcome even part of the flow reductions due to virtually certain warming is a poor risk management strategy. Many of the existing water policy arrangements in the Colorado River Basin will fail in the 21st century unless innovative new solutions are developed under leadership from the federal government and its basin state partners.

Subsurface temperature data in Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. Circular 151

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiter, M.; Weidman, C.; Edwards, C.L.

1976-01-01

Temperature data taken in 13 drill tests around the Valles Caldera are presented. Seven of these tests were shallow auger holes (less than approximately 30m), 4 were rotary holes of intermediate depth (140 m to 170 m), and 2 were relatively deep tests (350 m and 730 m). Heat-flow measurements were obtained in the 4 intermediate drill tests whereas only geothermal gradients were measured in the remaining tests. Potential ground-water movement, lack of good thermal conductivity control, and the shallow depth of many of the drill tests makes the heat-flow pattern in the area uncertain. Two trends appear likely: highermore » heat flows are to the western side of the Valles Caldera (as opposed to the eastern side) and heat flows increase rapidly in approaching the margin of the Valles Caldera from the west. Both observations suggest a relatively shallow heat source located beneath the western part of the Valles Caldera.« less

Uncertainty in simulated groundwater-quality trends in transient flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios; Robbins, Gary A.

2013-01-01

In numerical modeling of groundwater flow, the result of a given solution method is affected by the way in which transient flow conditions and geologic heterogeneity are simulated. An algorithm is demonstrated that simulates breakthrough curves at a pumping well by convolution-based particle tracking in a transient flow field for several synthetic basin-scale aquifers. In comparison to grid-based (Eulerian) methods, the particle (Lagrangian) method is better able to capture multimodal breakthrough caused by changes in pumping at the well, although the particle method may be apparently nonlinear because of the discrete nature of particle arrival times. Trial-and-error choice of number of particles and release times can perhaps overcome the apparent nonlinearity. Heterogeneous aquifer properties tend to smooth the effects of transient pumping, making it difficult to separate their effects in parameter estimation. Porosity, a new parameter added for advective transport, can be accurately estimated using both grid-based and particle-based methods, but predictions can be highly uncertain, even in the simple, nonreactive case.

Optimally managing water resources in large river basins for an uncertain future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul

2014-01-01

One of the challenges of basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing regional economic development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data by using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to substantially reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of the flow-alteration features after the deepening also is demonstrated.

Heterogeneous Nitration of Tyrosine by NO­3 and N2O5: Rates, Mechanisms and Product Yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talukdar, R. K.; Witkowski, B.; Burkholder, J. B.; Roberts, J. M.

2015-12-01

Nitration of protein-bound tyrosine has been identified as a casual connection between air pollution and human health. Tyrosine is a common amino acid, 4-hydroxyphenylalanine, HO-C6H4-CH2-CH(NH2)-C(O)OH), and is present in many atmospheric bio-aerosols. Nitration of the aromatic units of protein molecules in polluted air enhances their allergenicity. The mechanism of heterogeneous nitration process of bio-aerosols by common nitrating agents in the atmosphere, O3/NO2, NO3, N2O5 is not well understood. This chemistry is thought to proceed via reactions with O3 and NO2 on particle surfaces, through mechanisms that are still uncertain. The possible role of higher nitrogen oxides also remains uncertain, partly due to a lack of measurements of fundamental chemical and physical parameters. In this work, we undertook measurements of reactive uptake of NO3, N2O5, as a function of relative humidity and temperature in a tyrosine coated flow tube reactor with chemical ionization mass spectrometric (CIMS) detection. Uptake coefficients on tyrosine coated flow tube were small under low relative humidity but were enhanced by an order of magnitude in the presence of high relative humidity, particularly for N2O5. The measured uptake coefficients were mostly due to reaction with water adsorbed on the surface of the flow tube. Only ~10% of the reactive uptake could be attributed to reaction with tyrosine. Following uptake, the contents of the flow tube were extracted, and analyzed using electrospray ionization - mass spectrometer (ESI-MS) to identify and quantify the products of the nitration reaction. The only organic reaction product detected was 3-nitro-tyrosine (3-NT). The measured uptake coefficients, mechanism of the title reactions and the possible atmospheric implications of these findings will be discussed.

Aerodynamic Levitation Reactor Studies of Fluorine Reactions with Refractory Ceramics

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-05-01

Melting Points of Rare-Earth Metals and Rare-Earth Trifluorides . 14 3. Aerodynamic Lavitation Flow Reactor. 15 4 Lanthanutm-Boron-Carbon Ternary Phase...the least volatile fluorides (CaF , SrT and rare-earth trifluorides ) would yield a 10% increase in w* (initially O.O cam) in about 1 hour at 1300K...measurement, and are, therefore, somewhat uncertain. The melting points of the rare-earth metals and their trifluorides are illustrated in Fig. 2. The melting

Blazar flaring patterns (B-FlaP) classifying blazar candidate of uncertain type in the third Fermi-LAT catalogue by artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiaro, G.; Salvetti, D.; La Mura, G.; Giroletti, M.; Thompson, D. J.; Bastieri, D.

2016-11-01

The Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) is currently the most important facility for investigating the GeV γ-ray sky. With Fermi-LAT, more than three thousand γ-ray sources have been discovered so far. 1144 (˜40 per cent) of the sources are active galaxies of the blazar class, and 573 (˜20 per cent) are listed as blazar candidate of uncertain type (BCU), or sources without a conclusive classification. We use the empirical cumulative distribution functions and the artificial neural networks for a fast method of screening and classification for BCUs based on data collected at γ-ray energies only, when rigorous multiwavelength analysis is not available. Based on our method, we classify 342 BCUs as BL Lacs and 154 as flat-spectrum radio quasars, while 77 objects remain uncertain. Moreover, radio analysis and direct observations in ground-based optical observatories are used as counterparts to the statistical classifications to validate the method. This approach is of interest because of the increasing number of unclassified sources in Fermi catalogues and because blazars and in particular their subclass high synchrotron peak objects are the main targets of atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes.

The impact of personalized probabilistic wall thickness models on peak wall stress in abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Biehler, J; Wall, W A

2018-02-01

If computational models are ever to be used in high-stakes decision making in clinical practice, the use of personalized models and predictive simulation techniques is a must. This entails rigorous quantification of uncertainties as well as harnessing available patient-specific data to the greatest extent possible. Although researchers are beginning to realize that taking uncertainty in model input parameters into account is a necessity, the predominantly used probabilistic description for these uncertain parameters is based on elementary random variable models. In this work, we set out for a comparison of different probabilistic models for uncertain input parameters using the example of an uncertain wall thickness in finite element models of abdominal aortic aneurysms. We provide the first comparison between a random variable and a random field model for the aortic wall and investigate the impact on the probability distribution of the computed peak wall stress. Moreover, we show that the uncertainty about the prevailing peak wall stress can be reduced if noninvasively available, patient-specific data are harnessed for the construction of the probabilistic wall thickness model. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optimal Operation and Dispatch of Voltage Regulation Devices Considering High Penetrations of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mather, Barry A; Hodge, Brian S; Cho, Gyu-Jung

Voltage regulation devices have been traditionally installed and utilized to support distribution voltages. Installations of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution systems are rapidly increasing, and many of these generation resources have variable and uncertain power output. These generators can significantly change the voltage profile for a feeder; therefore, in the distribution system planning stage of the optimal operation and dispatch of voltage regulation devices, possible high penetrations of DERs should be considered. In this paper, we model the IEEE 34-bus test feeder, including all essential equipment. An optimization method is adopted to determine the optimal siting and operation ofmore » the voltage regulation devices in the presence of distributed solar power generation. Finally, we verify the optimal configuration of the entire system through the optimization and simulation results.« less

Intrusive Method for Uncertainty Quantification in a Multiphase Flow Solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnquist, Brian; Owkes, Mark

2016-11-01

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a necessary, interesting, and often neglected aspect of fluid flow simulations. To determine the significance of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, a multiphase flow solver is being created which extends a single phase, intrusive, polynomial chaos scheme into multiphase flows. Reliably estimating the impact of input uncertainty on design criteria can help identify and minimize unwanted variability in critical areas, and has the potential to help advance knowledge in atomizing jets, jet engines, pharmaceuticals, and food processing. Use of an intrusive polynomial chaos method has been shown to significantly reduce computational cost over non-intrusive collocation methods such as Monte-Carlo. This method requires transforming the model equations into a weak form through substitution of stochastic (random) variables. Ultimately, the model deploys a stochastic Navier Stokes equation, a stochastic conservative level set approach including reinitialization, as well as stochastic normals and curvature. By implementing these approaches together in one framework, basic problems may be investigated which shed light on model expansion, uncertainty theory, and fluid flow in general. NSF Grant Number 1511325.

Efficient coordination of swarms of sensor-laden balloons for persistent, in situ, real-time measurement of hurricane development*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bewley, Thomas; Meneghello, Gianluca

2016-10-01

Accurate long-term forecasts of the path and intensity of severe hurricanes are imperative to protect property and save lives. Extensive real-time measurements within hurricanes, especially near their core, are essential for supplementing the limited relevant information accessible by satellites in order to improve such forecasts. Current operational methods for obtaining in situ information, such as dropsondes and repeated manned and unmanned aircraft flights over and within hurricanes, are both expensive and limited in duration. In the present work it is demonstrated by numerical experiments how a swarm of robust, inexpensive, buoyancy-controlled, sensor-laden balloons might be deployed and controlled in an energetically efficient, coordinated fashion, for days at a time, to continuously monitor relevant properties (pressure, humidity, temperature, and wind speed) of a hurricane as it develops. Rather than fighting its gale-force winds, the strong and predictable stratification of these winds is leveraged to efficiently disperse the balloons into a favorable time-evolving distribution. An iterative bootstrap approach is envisioned in which (a) sensor balloons are used to help improve the available computational estimate of the uncertain and underresolved flow field of the hurricane and (b) this (imprecise) estimate of the hurricane flow field is leveraged to improve the distribution of the sensor balloons, which then better facilitates (a), etc. The control approach envisioned in this ambitious effort is a combination of (centrally computed) model predictive control for coordination at the largest scales, which is the focus of the present paper, coupled with a feedback control strategy (decentrally computed, on the balloons themselves), for smaller-scale corrections. Our work indicates that, following such an approach, certain target orbits of interest within the hurricane can be continuously sampled by some balloons, while others make repeated sweeps between the eye and the spiral rain bands.

Gravitational potential wells and the cosmic bulk flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuyu; Kumar, Abhinav; Feldman, Hume; Watkins, Richard

2016-03-01

The bulk flow is a volume average of the peculiar velocities and a useful probe of the mass distribution on large scales. The gravitational instability model views the bulk flow as a potential flow that obeys a Maxwellian Distribution. We use two N-body simulations, the LasDamas Carmen and the Horizon Run, to calculate the bulk flows of various sized volumes in the simulation boxes. Once we have the bulk flow velocities as a function of scale, we investigate the mass and gravitational potential distribution around the volume. We found that matter densities can be asymmetrical and difficult to detect in real surveys, however, the gravitational potential and its gradient may provide better tools to investigate the underlying matter distribution. This study shows that bulk flows are indeed potential flows and thus provides information on the flow sources. We also show that bulk flow magnitudes follow a Maxwellian distribution on scales > 10h-1 Mpc.

Potential increase in coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise suggested by considering hydrodynamic attenuation effects

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, José F.; Saco, Patricia M.; Sandi, Steven; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo

2017-01-01

The future of coastal wetlands and their ecological value depend on their capacity to adapt to the interacting effects of human impacts and sea-level rise. Even though extensive wetland loss due to submergence is a possible scenario, its magnitude is highly uncertain due to limited understanding of hydrodynamic and bio-geomorphic interactions over time. In particular, the effect of man-made drainage modifications on hydrodynamic attenuation and consequent wetland evolution is poorly understood. Predictions are further complicated by the presence of a number of vegetation types that change over time and also contribute to flow attenuation. Here, we show that flow attenuation affects wetland vegetation by modifying its wetting-drying regime and inundation depth, increasing its vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our simulations for an Australian subtropical wetland predict much faster wetland loss than commonly used models that do not consider flow attenuation. PMID:28703130

Multilevel Monte Carlo for two phase flow and Buckley–Leverett transport in random heterogeneous porous media

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Müller, Florian, E-mail: florian.mueller@sam.math.ethz.ch; Jenny, Patrick, E-mail: jenny@ifd.mavt.ethz.ch; Meyer, Daniel W., E-mail: meyerda@ethz.ch

2013-10-01

Monte Carlo (MC) is a well known method for quantifying uncertainty arising for example in subsurface flow problems. Although robust and easy to implement, MC suffers from slow convergence. Extending MC by means of multigrid techniques yields the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. MLMC has proven to greatly accelerate MC for several applications including stochastic ordinary differential equations in finance, elliptic stochastic partial differential equations and also hyperbolic problems. In this study, MLMC is combined with a streamline-based solver to assess uncertain two phase flow and Buckley–Leverett transport in random heterogeneous porous media. The performance of MLMC is compared tomore » MC for a two dimensional reservoir with a multi-point Gaussian logarithmic permeability field. The influence of the variance and the correlation length of the logarithmic permeability on the MLMC performance is studied.« less

ITOUGH2(UNIX). Inverse Modeling for TOUGH2 Family of Multiphase Flow Simulators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finsterle, S.

1999-03-01

ITOUGH2 provides inverse modeling capabilities for the TOUGH2 family of numerical simulators for non-isothermal multiphase flows in fractured-porous media. The ITOUGH2 can be used for estimating parameters by automatic modeling calibration, for sensitivity analyses, and for uncertainity propagation analyses (linear and Monte Carlo simulations). Any input parameter to the TOUGH2 simulator can be estimated based on any type of observation for which a corresponding TOUGH2 output is calculated. ITOUGH2 solves a non-linear least-squares problem using direct or gradient-based minimization algorithms. A detailed residual and error analysis is performed, which includes the evaluation of model identification criteria. ITOUGH2 can also bemore » run in forward mode, solving subsurface flow problems related to nuclear waste isolation, oil, gas, and geothermal resevoir engineering, and vadose zone hydrology.« less

Probing Reliability of Transport Phenomena Based Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow Analysis in Autogeneous Fusion Welding Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bag, S.; de, A.

2010-09-01

The transport phenomena based heat transfer and fluid flow calculations in weld pool require a number of input parameters. Arc efficiency, effective thermal conductivity, and viscosity in weld pool are some of these parameters, values of which are rarely known and difficult to assign a priori based on the scientific principles alone. The present work reports a bi-directional three-dimensional (3-D) heat transfer and fluid flow model, which is integrated with a real number based genetic algorithm. The bi-directional feature of the integrated model allows the identification of the values of a required set of uncertain model input parameters and, next, the design of process parameters to achieve a target weld pool dimension. The computed values are validated with measured results in linear gas-tungsten-arc (GTA) weld samples. Furthermore, a novel methodology to estimate the overall reliability of the computed solutions is also presented.

Potential increase in coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise suggested by considering hydrodynamic attenuation effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, José F.; Saco, Patricia M.; Sandi, Steven; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo

2017-07-01

The future of coastal wetlands and their ecological value depend on their capacity to adapt to the interacting effects of human impacts and sea-level rise. Even though extensive wetland loss due to submergence is a possible scenario, its magnitude is highly uncertain due to limited understanding of hydrodynamic and bio-geomorphic interactions over time. In particular, the effect of man-made drainage modifications on hydrodynamic attenuation and consequent wetland evolution is poorly understood. Predictions are further complicated by the presence of a number of vegetation types that change over time and also contribute to flow attenuation. Here, we show that flow attenuation affects wetland vegetation by modifying its wetting-drying regime and inundation depth, increasing its vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our simulations for an Australian subtropical wetland predict much faster wetland loss than commonly used models that do not consider flow attenuation.

Modeling Day-to-day Flow Dynamics on Degradable Transport Network

PubMed Central

Gao, Bo; Zhang, Ronghui; Lou, Xiaoming

2016-01-01

Stochastic link capacity degradations are common phenomena in transport network which can cause travel time variations and further can affect travelers’ daily route choice behaviors. This paper formulates a deterministic dynamic model, to capture the day-to-day (DTD) flow evolution process in the presence of degraded link capacity degradations. The aggregated network flow dynamics are driven by travelers’ study of uncertain travel time and their choice of risky routes. This paper applies the exponential-smoothing filter to describe travelers’ study of travel time variations, and meanwhile formulates risk attitude parameter updating equation to reflect travelers’ endogenous risk attitude evolution schema. In addition, this paper conducts theoretical analyses to investigate several significant mathematical characteristics implied in the proposed DTD model, including fixed point existence, uniqueness, stability and irreversibility. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the DTD model and verify some important dynamic system properties. PMID:27959903

Statistical Distribution of Inflation on Lava Flows: Analysis of Flow Surfaces on Earth and Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glazel, L. S.; Anderson, S. W.; Stofan, E. R.; Baloga, S.

2003-01-01

The surface morphology of a lava flow results from processes that take place during the emplacement of the flow. Certain types of features, such as tumuli, lava rises and lava rise pits, are indicators of flow inflation or endogenous growth of a lava flow. Tumuli in particular have been identified as possible indicators of tube location, indicating that their distribution on the surface of a lava flow is a junction of the internal pathways of lava present during flow emplacement. However, the distribution of tumuli on lava flows has not been examined in a statistically thorough manner. In order to more rigorously examine the distribution of tumuli on a lava flow, we examined a discrete flow lobe with numerous lava rises and tumuli on the 1969 - 1974 Mauna Ulu flow at Kilauea, Hawaii. The lobe is located in the distal portion of the flow below Holei Pali, which is characterized by hummocky pahoehoe flows emplaced from tubes. We chose this flow due to its discrete nature allowing complete mapping of surface morphologies, well-defined boundaries, well-constrained emplacement parameters, and known flow thicknesses. In addition, tube locations for this Mauna Ulu flow were mapped by Holcomb (1976) during flow emplacement. We also examine the distribution of tumuli on the distal portion of the hummocky Thrainsskjoldur flow field provided by Rossi and Gudmundsson (1996). Analysis of the Mauna Ulu and Thrainsskjoldur flow lobes and the availability of high-resolution MOC images motivated us to look for possible tumuli-dominated flow lobes on the surface of Mars. We identified a MOC image of a lava flow south of Elysium Mons with features morphologically similar to tumuli. The flow is characterized by raised elliptical to circular mounds, some with axial cracks, that are similar in size to the tumuli measured on Earth. One potential avenue of determining whether they are tumuli is to look at the spatial distribution to see if any patterns similar to those of tumuli-dominated terrestrial flows can be identified. Since tumuli form by the injection of lava beneath a crust, the distribution of tumuli on a flow should represent the distribution of thermally preferred pathways beneath the surface of the crust. That distribution of thermally preferred pathways may be a function of the evolution of a basaltic lava flow. As a longer-lived flow evolves, initially broad thermally preferred pathways would evolve to narrower, more well-defined tube-like pathways. The final flow morphology clearly preserves the growth of the flow over time, with inflation features indicating pathways that were not necessarily contemporaneously active. Here, we test using statistical analysis whether this final flow morphology produces distinct distributions that can be used to readily determine the distribution of thermally preferred pathways beneath the surface of the crust.

Performance assessment of Saskatchewan's water resource system under uncertain inter-provincial water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Nazemi, Ali; Wheater, Howard

2014-05-01

The trans-boundary Saskatchewan River Basin supports livelihoods and the economy of the province of Saskatchewan, Canada. Water users include irrigated agriculture, hydropower, potash mining, urban centers, and ecosystem services. Water availability in Saskatchewan is highly dependent on the flows from the upstream province of Alberta. These flows mostly originate from the Rocky Mountains headwaters and are highly regulated, due to intensive water use and redistribution before they get to the Alberta/Saskatchewan border. Warming climate and increasing water demands in Alberta have changed the incoming flow characteristics from Alberta to Saskatchewan. It is critical to assess the performance and the viability of Saskatchewan's water resources system under uncertain future inter-provincial inflows. For this purpose, a possible range of future changes in the inflows from Alberta to Saskatchewan is considered in this study. The considered changes include various combinations of shifts in the timing of the annual peak and volumetric change in the annual flow volumes. These shifts are implemented using a copula-based stochastic simulation method to generate multiple realizations of weekly flow series at two key locations of inflow to Saskatchewan's water resources system, in a way that the spatial dependencies between weekly inflows are maintained. Each flow series is of 31-years length and constitutes a possible long term water availability scenario. The stochastically generated flows are introduced as an alternative to the historical inflows for water resources planning and management purposes in Saskatchewan. Both historical and reconstructed inflows are fed into a Sustainability-oriented Water Allocation, Management, and Planning (SWAMP) model to analyze the effects of inflow changes on Saskatchewan's water resources system. The SWAMP model was developed using the System Dynamics approach and entails irrigation/soil moisture, non-irrigation uses and economic evaluation sub-models, with the capacity to investigate alternative environmental flow requirements. The long term changes in the performance of the Saskatchewan's water resources system with respect to the considered shifts in the inflow regime are quantified using different assessment indices. Indices, such as vulnerability and reliability, are visualized in 2D maps in which the axes are describing the shifts in streamflow characteristics. Results indicate that the economy and environment in Saskatchewan are sensitive to the shifts in Alberta's streamflow regime. Most importantly, hydropower production, lake levels, and the apportionment to the downstream province of Manitoba are among the most sensitive components of the water resource system.

Stochastic Order Redshift Technique (SORT): a simple, efficient and robust method to improve cosmological redshift measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tejos, Nicolas; Rodríguez-Puebla, Aldo; Primack, Joel R.

2018-01-01

We present a simple, efficient and robust approach to improve cosmological redshift measurements. The method is based on the presence of a reference sample for which a precise redshift number distribution (dN/dz) can be obtained for different pencil-beam-like sub-volumes within the original survey. For each sub-volume we then impose that: (i) the redshift number distribution of the uncertain redshift measurements matches the reference dN/dz corrected by their selection functions and (ii) the rank order in redshift of the original ensemble of uncertain measurements is preserved. The latter step is motivated by the fact that random variables drawn from Gaussian probability density functions (PDFs) of different means and arbitrarily large standard deviations satisfy stochastic ordering. We then repeat this simple algorithm for multiple arbitrary pencil-beam-like overlapping sub-volumes; in this manner, each uncertain measurement has multiple (non-independent) 'recovered' redshifts which can be used to estimate a new redshift PDF. We refer to this method as the Stochastic Order Redshift Technique (SORT). We have used a state-of-the-art N-body simulation to test the performance of SORT under simple assumptions and found that it can improve the quality of cosmological redshifts in a robust and efficient manner. Particularly, SORT redshifts (zsort) are able to recover the distinctive features of the so-called 'cosmic web' and can provide unbiased measurement of the two-point correlation function on scales ≳4 h-1Mpc. Given its simplicity, we envision that a method like SORT can be incorporated into more sophisticated algorithms aimed to exploit the full potential of large extragalactic photometric surveys.

A critical review of the experimental data for developed free turbulent shear layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birch, S. F.; Eggers, J. M.

1973-01-01

Experimental shear layer data are reviewed and the results are compared to numerical predictions for three test cases. It was concluded from the study that many, if not most, of the apparent inconsistencies which exist in the interpretation of the experimental data for free shear layers result from confusing data taken in developed turbulent flows with those taken in transitional or developing flows. Other conclusions drawn from the study include the following: (1) The effects of Mach number are more uncertain primarily because of limited data and the absence of any turbulence measurements for supersonic shear layers. (2) The data available for heterogeneous shear layers are not sufficient to clearly establish the effect of density ratio on mixing rate.

An entropy-based method for determining the flow depth distribution in natural channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moramarco, Tommaso; Corato, Giovanni; Melone, Florisa; Singh, Vijay P.

2013-08-01

A methodology for determining the bathymetry of river cross-sections during floods by the sampling of surface flow velocity and existing low flow hydraulic data is developed . Similar to Chiu (1988) who proposed an entropy-based velocity distribution, the flow depth distribution in a cross-section of a natural channel is derived by entropy maximization. The depth distribution depends on one parameter, whose estimate is straightforward, and on the maximum flow depth. Applying to a velocity data set of five river gage sites, the method modeled the flow area observed during flow measurements and accurately assessed the corresponding discharge by coupling the flow depth distribution and the entropic relation between mean velocity and maximum velocity. The methodology unfolds a new perspective for flow monitoring by remote sensing, considering that the two main quantities on which the methodology is based, i.e., surface flow velocity and flow depth, might be potentially sensed by new sensors operating aboard an aircraft or satellite.

Impact of Uncertainty from Load-Based Reserves and Renewables on Dispatch Costs and Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Bowen; Maroukis, Spencer D.; Lin, Yashen

2016-11-21

Aggregations of controllable loads are considered to be a fast-responding, cost-efficient, and environmental-friendly candidate for power system ancillary services. Unlike conventional service providers, the potential capacity from the aggregation is highly affected by factors like ambient conditions and load usage patterns. Previous work modeled aggregations of controllable loads (such as air conditioners) as thermal batteries, which are capable of providing reserves but with uncertain capacity. A stochastic optimal power flow problem was formulated to manage this uncertainty, as well as uncertainty in renewable generation. In this paper, we explore how the types and levels of uncertainty, generation reserve costs, andmore » controllable load capacity affect the dispatch solution, operational costs, and CO2 emissions. We also compare the results of two methods for solving the stochastic optimization problem, namely the probabilistically robust method and analytical reformulation assuming Gaussian distributions. Case studies are conducted on a modified IEEE 9-bus system with renewables, controllable loads, and congestion. We find that different types and levels of uncertainty have significant impacts on dispatch and emissions. More controllable loads and less conservative solution methodologies lead to lower costs and emissions.« less

Pricing schemes for new drugs: a welfare analysis.

PubMed

Levaggi, Rosella

2014-02-01

Drug price regulation is acquiring increasing significance in the investment choices of the pharmaceutical sector. The overall objective is to determine an optimal trade-off between the incentives for innovation, consumer protection, and value for money. However, price regulation is itself a source of distortion. In this study, we examine the welfare properties of listing through a bargaining process and value-based pricing schemes. The latter are superior instruments to uncertain listing processes for maximising total welfare, but the distribution of the benefits between consumers and the industry depends on rate of rebate chosen by the regulator. However, through an appropriate choice, it is always possible to define a value-based pricing scheme with risk sharing, which both consumers and the industry prefer to an uncertain bargaining process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust passivity analysis for discrete-time recurrent neural networks with mixed delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chuan-Kuei; Shu, Yu-Jeng; Chang, Koan-Yuh; Shou, Ho-Nien; Lu, Chien-Yu

2015-02-01

This article considers the robust passivity analysis for a class of discrete-time recurrent neural networks (DRNNs) with mixed time-delays and uncertain parameters. The mixed time-delays that consist of both the discrete time-varying and distributed time-delays in a given range are presented, and the uncertain parameters are norm-bounded. The activation functions are assumed to be globally Lipschitz continuous. Based on new bounding technique and appropriate type of Lyapunov functional, a sufficient condition is investigated to guarantee the existence of the desired robust passivity condition for the DRNNs, which can be derived in terms of a family of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Some free-weighting matrices are introduced to reduce the conservatism of the criterion by using the bounding technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability.

Separating astrophysical sources from indirect dark matter signals

PubMed Central

Siegal-Gaskins, Jennifer M.

2015-01-01

Indirect searches for products of dark matter annihilation and decay face the challenge of identifying an uncertain and subdominant signal in the presence of uncertain backgrounds. Two valuable approaches to this problem are (i) using analysis methods which take advantage of different features in the energy spectrum and angular distribution of the signal and backgrounds and (ii) more accurately characterizing backgrounds, which allows for more robust identification of possible signals. These two approaches are complementary and can be significantly strengthened when used together. I review the status of indirect searches with gamma rays using two promising targets, the Inner Galaxy and the isotropic gamma-ray background. For both targets, uncertainties in the properties of backgrounds are a major limitation to the sensitivity of indirect searches. I then highlight approaches which can enhance the sensitivity of indirect searches using these targets. PMID:25304638

26 CFR 1.707-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Rules Applicable to Guaranteed Payments, Preferred Returns, Operating Cash Flow Distributions, and...) Presumption regarding operating cash flow distributions. (1) In general. (2) Operating cash flow distributions. (i) In general. (ii) Operating cash flow safe harbor. (iii) Tiered partnerships. (c) Accumulation of...

26 CFR 1.707-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Rules Applicable to Guaranteed Payments, Preferred Returns, Operating Cash Flow Distributions, and...) Presumption regarding operating cash flow distributions. (1) In general. (2) Operating cash flow distributions. (i) In general. (ii) Operating cash flow safe harbor. (iii) Tiered partnerships. (c) Accumulation of...

26 CFR 1.707-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Guaranteed Payments, Preferred Returns, Operating Cash Flow Distributions, and Reimbursements of Preformation... operating cash flow distributions. (1) In general. (2) Operating cash flow distributions. (i) In general. (ii) Operating cash flow safe harbor. (iii) Tiered partnerships. (c) Accumulation of guaranteed...

26 CFR 1.707-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Rules Applicable to Guaranteed Payments, Preferred Returns, Operating Cash Flow Distributions, and...) Presumption regarding operating cash flow distributions. (1) In general. (2) Operating cash flow distributions. (i) In general. (ii) Operating cash flow safe harbor. (iii) Tiered partnerships. (c) Accumulation of...

26 CFR 1.707-0 - Table of contents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Rules Applicable to Guaranteed Payments, Preferred Returns, Operating Cash Flow Distributions, and...) Presumption regarding operating cash flow distributions. (1) In general. (2) Operating cash flow distributions. (i) In general. (ii) Operating cash flow safe harbor. (iii) Tiered partnerships. (c) Accumulation of...

Resin distribution in second-growth ponderosa pine

Treesearch

B.H. Paul

1955-01-01

In a study of specific gravity of second-growth ponderosa pine, there was visible evidence of resin in a part of the specific gravity specimens. Each specimen contained 10 annual growth rings in cross sections taken at 4 heights in the merchantable length of the trees. Since the presence of resin introduced an uncertain amount of error in the specific gravity values,...

Assessing net ecosystem carbon exchange of U.S. terrestrial ecosystems by integrating eddy covariance flux measurements and satellite observations

Treesearch

Jingfeng Xiaoa; Qianlai Zhuang; Beverly E. Law; Dennis D. Baldocchi; Jiquan Chen; al. et.

2011-01-01

More accurate projections of future carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and associated climate change depend on improved scientific understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Despite the consensus that U.S. terrestrial ecosystems provide a carbon sink, the size, distribution, and interannual variability of this sink remain uncertain. Here we report a...

Non-axisymmetric flow characteristics in centrifugal compressor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Leilei; Lao, Dazhong; Liu, Yixiong; Yang, Ce

2015-06-01

The flow field distribution in centrifugal compressor is significantly affected by the non-axisymmetric geometry structure of the volute. The experimental and numerical simulation methods were adopted in this work to study the compressor flow field distribution with different flow conditions. The results show that the pressure distributionin volute is characterized by the circumferential non-uniform phenomenon and the pressure fluctuation on the high static pressure zone propagates reversely to upstream, which results in the non-axisymmetric flow inside the compressor. The non-uniform level of pressure distribution in large flow condition is higher than that in small flow condition, its effect on the upstream flow field is also stronger. Additionally, the non-uniform circumferential pressure distribution in volute brings the non-axisymmetric flow at impeller outlet. In different flow conditions,the circumferential variation of the absolute flow angle at impeller outlet is also different. Meanwhile, the non-axisymmetric flow characteristics in internal impeller can be also reflected by the distribution of the mass flow. The high static pressure region of the volute corresponds to the decrease of mass flow in upstream blade channel, while the low static pressure zone of the volute corresponds to the increase of the mass flow. In small flow condition, the mass flow difference in the blade channel is bigger than that in the large flow condition.

Structure et cinématique des peridotites feldspathiques du Cap Bougaroun (Algérie)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misseri, M.

The Bougaroun Cape ultramafic body (Algeria) is located in the internal zone of the Maghrebine range. This body is similar to the ultramafic bodies of the Betico-Rifan range. Peridotites are associated with kinzigites. Observed structures and deformations correspond to a horizontal asthenospheric flow direction along a vertical plane. This could have been produced in the asthenosphere below a north-south rift or an incipient ocean spreading centre. The opening age is uncertain, hercynian or alpine.

The Vital Presence: The Generalship of Field Marshal Viscount William Slim General Officer Commanding XIV Army in the Burma Theater 1943-1945

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-25

for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and...Nationalist Forces operating in Southern China.10 To do so, the Allies were reliant upon the uncertain flow of combat supplies and equipment across the...Burma, could allow the Allies to maintain a major road link for combat supplies and heavy equipment into Southern China. Over the course of the war

Valley Glaciers on Pluto

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-09-17

Ice (probably frozen nitrogen) that appears to have accumulated on the uplands on the right side of this 390-mile (630-kilometer) wide image is draining from Pluto's mountains onto the informally named Sputnik Planum through the 2- to 5-mile (3- to 8- kilometer) wide valleys. The flow front of the ice moving into Sputnik Planum is outlined by the blue arrows. The origin of the ridges and pits on the right side of the image remains uncertain. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19944

Rotational Energy Transfer of N2 Gas Determined Using a New Ab Initio Potential Energy Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huo, Winifred M.; Stallcop, James R.; Partridge, Harry; Langhoff, Stephen R. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Rotational energy transfer between two N2 molecules is a fundamental process of some importance. Exchange is expected to play a role, but its importance is somewhat uncertain. Rotational energy transfer cross sections of N2 also have applications in many other fields including modeling of aerodynamic flows, laser operations, and linewidth analysis in nonintrusive laser diagnostics. A number of N2-N2 rigid rotor potential energy surface (PES) has been reported in the literature.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fred J. Molz, III

To better understand longer-term vadose zone transport in southeastern soils, field lysimeter experiments were conducted at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, SC, in the 1980s. Each of the three lysimeters analyzed herein contained a filter paper spiked with different Pu solutions, and they were left exposed to natural environmental conditions (including the growth of annual weed grasses) for 11 years. The resulting Pu activity measurements from each lysimeter core showed anomalous activity distributions below the source, with significant migration of Pu above the source. Such results are not explainable by adsorption phenomena alone. A transient variably saturated flowmore » model with root water uptake was developed and coupled to a soil reactive transport model. Somewhat surprisingly, the fully transient analysis showed results nearly identical to those of a much simpler steady flow analysis performed previously. However, all phenomena studied were unable to produce the upward Pu transport observed in the data. This result suggests another transport mechanism such as Pu uptake by roots and upward transport due to transpiration. Thus, the variably saturated flow and reactive transport model was extended to include uptake and transport of Pu within the root xylem, along with computational methodology and results. In the extended model, flow velocity in the soil was driven by precipitation input along with transpiration and drainage. Water uptake by the roots determined the flow velocity in the root xylem, and this along with uptake of Pu in the transpiration stream drove advection and dispersion of the two Pu species in the xylem. During wet periods with high potential evapotranspiration, maximum flow velocities through the xylem would approached 600 cm/hr, orders of magnitude larger that flow velocities in the soil. Values for parameters and the correct conceptual viewpoint for Pu transport in plant xylem was uncertain. This motivated further experiments devoted to Pu uptake by corn roots and xylem transport. Plants were started in wet paper wrapped around each corn seed. When the tap roots were sufficiently long, the seedlings were transplanted to a soil container with the tap root extending out the container bottom. The soil container was then placed over a nutrient solution container, and the solution served as an additional medium for root growth. To conduct an uptake study, a radioactive substance, such as Pu complexed with the bacterial siderophore DFOB, was added to the nutrient solution. After a suitable elapsed time, the corn plant was sacrificed, cut into 10 cm lengths, and the activity distribution measured. Experimental results clarified the basic nature of Pu uptake and transport in corn plants, and resulting simulations suggested that each growing season Pu in the SRS lysimeters would move into the plant shoots and be deposited on the soil surface during the Fall dieback. Subsequent isotope ratio analyses showed that this did happen. OVERALL RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS - (1) Pu transport downward from the source is controlled by advection, dispersion and adsorption, along with surface-mediated REDOX reactions. (2) Hysteresis, extreme root distribution functions, air-content dependent oxidation rate constants, and large evaporation rates from the soil surface were not able to explain the observed upward migration of Pu. (3) Small amounts of Pu uptake by plant roots and translocation in the transpiration stream creates a realistic mechanism for upward Pu migration (4) Realistic xylem cross-sectional areas imply high flow velocities under hot, wet conditions. Such flow velocities produce the correct shape for the observed activity distributions in the top 20 cm of the lysimeter soil. (5) Simulations imply that Pu should have moved into the above-ground grass tissue each year during the duration of the experiments, resulting in an activity residual accumulating on the soil surface. An isotope ratio analysis showed that the observed surface Pu residue was from the buried sources, not atmospheric fallout. (6) The plant experiments indicate a Pu-DFOB velocity in the corn xylem of at least 174 cm/hr, much higher than ionic Pu in soil. Thus, Pu complexation with chelating agents is probably what led to the observed enhanced uptake and mobility in grasses. (7) Plant experiments show that the uptake of Fe-DFOB, Pu-DFOB and the resulting distributions are very similar. This supports the hypothesis that plant and bacterial iron-seeking chemistry mistakes Pu for Fe.« less

Parametric distribution approach for flow availability in small hydro potential analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, Samizee; Basri, Mohd Juhari Mat; Jamaluddin, Zahrul Zamri; Azrulhisham, Engku Ahmad; Othman, Jamel

2016-10-01

Small hydro system is one of the important sources of renewable energy and it has been recognized worldwide as clean energy sources. Small hydropower generation system uses the potential energy in flowing water to produce electricity is often questionable due to inconsistent and intermittent of power generated. Potential analysis of small hydro system which is mainly dependent on the availability of water requires the knowledge of water flow or stream flow distribution. This paper presented the possibility of applying Pearson system for stream flow availability distribution approximation in the small hydro system. By considering the stochastic nature of stream flow, the Pearson parametric distribution approximation was computed based on the significant characteristic of Pearson system applying direct correlation between the first four statistical moments of the distribution. The advantage of applying various statistical moments in small hydro potential analysis will have the ability to analyze the variation shapes of stream flow distribution.

Examples of Communicating Uncertainty Applied to Earthquake Hazard and Risk Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, D. J.

2013-12-01

When is communicating scientific modeling uncertainty effective? One viewpoint is that the answer depends on whether one is communicating hazard or risk: hazards have quantifiable uncertainties (which, granted, are often ignored), yet risk uncertainties compound uncertainties inherent in the hazard with those of the risk calculations, and are thus often larger. Larger, yet more meaningful: since risk entails societal impact of some form, consumers of such information tend to have a better grasp of the potential uncertainty ranges for loss information than they do for less-tangible hazard values (like magnitude, peak acceleration, or stream flow). I present two examples that compare and contrast communicating uncertainty for earthquake hazard and risk products. The first example is the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) ShakeMap system, which portrays the uncertain, best estimate of the distribution and intensity of shaking over the potentially impacted region. The shaking intensity is well constrained at seismograph locations yet is uncertain elsewhere, so shaking uncertainties are quantified and presented spatially. However, with ShakeMap, it seems that users tend to believe what they see is accurate in part because (1) considering the shaking uncertainty complicates the picture, and (2) it would not necessarily alter their decision-making. In contrast, when it comes to making earthquake-response decisions based on uncertain loss estimates, actions tend to be made only after analysis of the confidence in (or source of) such estimates. Uncertain ranges of loss estimates instill tangible images for users, and when such uncertainties become large, intuitive reality-check alarms go off, for example, when the range of losses presented become too wide to be useful. The USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which in near-real time alerts users to the likelihood of ranges of potential fatalities and economic impact, is aimed at facilitating rapid and proportionate earthquake response. For uncertainty representation, PAGER employs an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) that provides simple alerting thresholds, derived from systematic analyses of past earthquake impact and response levels. The alert levels are characterized by alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (major disaster, necessitating international response). We made a conscious attempt at both simple and intuitive color-coded alerting criterion; yet, we preserve the necessary uncertainty measures (with simple histograms) by which one can gauge the likelihood for the alert to be over- or underestimated. In these hazard and loss modeling examples, both products are widely used across a range of technical as well as general audiences. Ironically, ShakeMap uncertainties--rigorously reported and portrayed for the primarily scientific portion of the audience--are rarely employed and are routinely misunderstood; for PAGER, uncertainties aimed at a wider user audience seem to be more easily digested. We discuss how differences in the way these uncertainties are portrayed may play into their acceptance and uptake, or lack thereof.

Quantifying the uncertainty in discharge data using hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings: a Bayesian method named BaRatin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin; Bonnifait, Laurent; Branger, Flora; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Horner, Ivan; Mansanarez, Valentin; Lang, Michel; Vigneau, Sylvain

2015-04-01

River discharge is a crucial variable for Hydrology: as the output variable of most hydrologic models, it is used for sensitivity analyses, model structure identification, parameter estimation, data assimilation, prediction, etc. A major difficulty stems from the fact that river discharge is not measured continuously. Instead, discharge time series used by hydrologists are usually based on simple stage-discharge relations (rating curves) calibrated using a set of direct stage-discharge measurements (gaugings). In this presentation, we present a Bayesian approach (cf. Le Coz et al., 2014) to build such hydrometric rating curves, to estimate the associated uncertainty and to propagate this uncertainty to discharge time series. The three main steps of this approach are described: (1) Hydraulic analysis: identification of the hydraulic controls that govern the stage-discharge relation, identification of the rating curve equation and specification of prior distributions for the rating curve parameters; (2) Rating curve estimation: Bayesian inference of the rating curve parameters, accounting for the individual uncertainties of available gaugings, which often differ according to the discharge measurement procedure and the flow conditions; (3) Uncertainty propagation: quantification of the uncertainty in discharge time series, accounting for both the rating curve uncertainties and the uncertainty of recorded stage values. The rating curve uncertainties combine the parametric uncertainties and the remnant uncertainties that reflect the limited accuracy of the mathematical model used to simulate the physical stage-discharge relation. In addition, we also discuss current research activities, including the treatment of non-univocal stage-discharge relationships (e.g. due to hydraulic hysteresis, vegetation growth, sudden change of the geometry of the section, etc.). An operational version of the BaRatin software and its graphical interface are made available free of charge on request to the authors. J. Le Coz, B. Renard, L. Bonnifait, F. Branger, R. Le Boursicaud (2014). Combining hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings in the estimation of hydrometric rating curves: a Bayesian approach, Journal of Hydrology, 509, 573-587.

Using ensemble rainfall predictions in a countrywide flood forecasting model in Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cranston, M. D.; Maxey, R.; Tavendale, A. C. W.; Buchanan, P.

2012-04-01

Improving flood predictions for all sources of flooding is at the centre of flood risk management policy in Scotland. With the introduction of the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act providing a new statutory basis for SEPA's flood warning responsibilities, the pressures on delivering hydrological science developments in support of this legislation has increased. Specifically, flood forecasting capabilities need to develop in support of the need to reduce the impact of flooding through the provision of actively disseminated, reliable and timely flood warnings. Flood forecasting in Scotland has developed significantly in recent years (Cranston and Tavendale, 2012). The development of hydrological models to predict flooding at a catchment scale has relied upon the application of rainfall runoff models utilising raingauge, radar and quantitative precipitation forecasts in the short lead time (less than 6 hours). Single or deterministic forecasts based on highly uncertain rainfall predictions have led to the greatest operational difficulties when communicating flood risk with emergency responders, therefore the emergence of probability-based estimates offers the greatest opportunity for managing uncertain predictions. This paper presents operational application of a physical-conceptual distributed hydrological model on a countrywide basis across Scotland. Developed by CEH Wallingford for SEPA in 2011, Grid-to-Grid (G2G) principally runs in deterministic mode and employs radar and raingauge estimates of rainfall together with weather model predictions to produce forecast river flows, as gridded time-series at a resolution of 1km and for up to 5 days ahead (Cranston, et al., 2012). However the G2G model is now being run operationally using ensemble predictions of rainfall from the MOGREPS-R system to provide probabilistic flood forecasts. By presenting a range of flood predictions on a national scale through this approach, hydrologists are now able to consider an objective measure of the likelihood of flooding impacts to help with risk based emergency communication.

Groundwater remediation engineering sparging using acetylene--study on the flow distribution of air.

PubMed

Zheng, Yan-Mei; Zhang, Ying; Huang, Guo-Qiang; Jiang, Bin; Li, Xin-Gang

2005-01-01

Air sparging (AS) is an emerging method to remove VOCs from saturated soils and groundwater. Air sparging performance highly depends on the air distribution resulting in the aquifer. In order to study gas flow characterization, a two-dimensional experimental chamber was designed and installed. In addition, the method by using acetylene as the tracer to directly image the gas distribution results of AS process has been put forward. Experiments were performed with different injected gas flow rates. The gas flow patterns were found to depend significantly on the injected gas flow rate, and the characterization of gas flow distributions in porous media was very different from the acetylene tracing study. Lower and higher gas flow rates generally yield more irregular in shape and less effective gas distributions.

Design and simulation of novel flow field plate geometry for proton exchange membrane fuel cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Hanxia; Wu, Chaoqun; Liu, Shuliang; Chen, Tao

2016-10-01

Bipolar plate is one of the many important components of proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) stacks as it supplies fuel and oxidant to the membrane-electrode assembly (MEA), removes water, collects produced current and provides mechanical support for the single cells in the stack. The flow field design of a bipolar plate greatly affects the performance of a PEMFC. It must uniformly distribute the reactant gases over the MEA and prevent product water flooding. This paper aims at improving the fuel cell performance by optimizing flow field designs and flow channel configurations. To achieve this, a novel biomimetic flow channel for flow field designs is proposed based on Murray's Law. Computational fluid dynamics based simulations were performed to compare three different designs (parallel, serpentine and biomimetic channel, respectively) in terms of current density distribution, power density distribution, pressure distribution, temperature distribution, and hydrogen mass fraction distribution. It was found that flow field designs with biomimetic flow channel perform better than that with convectional flow channel under the same operating conditions.

A multi-tracer approach coupled to numerical models to improve understanding of mountain block processes in a high elevation, semi-humid catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, R.; McIntosh, J. C.; Meixner, T.; Ferré, T. P. A.; Chorover, J.

2016-12-01

Mountain systems are critical sources of recharge to adjacent alluvial basins in dryland regions. Yet, mountain systems face poorly defined threats due to climate change in terms of reduced snowpack, precipitation changes, and increased temperatures. Fundamentally, the climate risks to mountain systems are uncertain due to our limited understanding of natural recharge processes. Our goal is to combine measurements and models to provide improved spatial and temporal descriptions of groundwater flow paths and transit times in a headwater catchment located in a sub-humid region. This information is important to quantifying groundwater age and, thereby, to providing more accurate assessments of the vulnerability of these systems to climate change. We are using: (a) combination of geochemical composition, along with 2H/18O and 3H isotopes to improve an existing conceptual model for mountain block recharge (MBR) for the Marshall Gulch Catchment (MGC) located within the Santa Catalina Mountains. The current model only focuses on shallow flow paths through the upper unconfined aquifer with no representation of the catchment's fractured-bedrock aquifer. Groundwater flow, solute transport, and groundwater age will be modeled throughout MGC using COMSOL Multiphysics® software. Competing models in terms of spatial distribution of required hydrologic parameters, e.g. hydraulic conductivity and porosity, will be proposed and these models will be used to design discriminatory data collection efforts based on multi-tracer methods. Initial end-member mixing results indicate that baseflow in MGC, if considered the same as the streamflow during the dry periods, is not represented by the chemistry of deep groundwater in the mountain system. In the ternary mixing space, most of the samples plot outside the mixing curve. Therefore, to further constrain the contributions of water from various reservoirs we are collecting stable water isotopes, tritium, and solute chemistry of precipitation, shallow groundwater, local spring water, MGC streamflow, and at a drainage location much lower than MGC outlet to better define and characterize each end-member of the ternary mixing model. Consequently, the end-member mixing results are expected to facilitate us in better understanding the MBR processes in and beyond MGC. Mountain systems are critical sources of recharge to adjacent alluvial basins in dryland regions. Yet, mountain systems face poorly defined threats due to climate change in terms of reduced snowpack, precipitation changes, and increased temperatures. Fundamentally, the climate risks to mountain systems are uncertain due to our limited understanding of natural recharge processes. Our goal is to combine measurements and models to provide improved spatial and temporal descriptions of groundwater flow paths and transit times in a headwater catchment located in a sub-humid region. This information is important to quantifying groundwater age and, thereby, to providing more accurate assessments of the vulnerability of these systems to climate change. We are using: (a) combination of geochemical composition, along with 2H/18O and 3H isotopes to improve an existing conceptual model for mountain block recharge (MBR) for the Marshall Gulch Catchment (MGC) located within the Santa Catalina Mountains. The current model only focuses on shallow flow paths through the upper unconfined aquifer with no representation of the catchment's fractured-bedrock aquifer. Groundwater flow, solute transport, and groundwater age will be modeled throughout MGC using COMSOL Multiphysics® software. Competing models in terms of spatial distribution of required hydrologic parameters, e.g. hydraulic conductivity and porosity, will be proposed and these models will be used to design discriminatory data collection efforts based on multi-tracer methods. Initial end-member mixing results indicate that baseflow in MGC, if considered the same as the streamflow during the dry periods, is not represented by the chemistry of deep groundwater in the mountain system. In the ternary mixing space, most of the samples plot outside the mixing curve. Therefore, to further constrain the contributions of water from various reservoirs we are collecting stable water isotopes, tritium, and solute chemistry of precipitation, shallow groundwater, local spring water, MGC streamflow, and at a drainage location much lower than MGC outlet to better define and characterize each end-member of the ternary mixing model. Consequently, the end-member mixing results are expected to facilitate us in better understanding the MBR processes in and beyond MGC.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Predicting Flow in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Alameddine, I.; Anderson, R. M.

2009-12-01

Recent innovative approaches to identifying and applying regression-based relationships between land use patterns (such as increasing impervious surface area and decreasing vegetative cover) and rainfall-runoff model parameters represent novel and promising improvements to predicting flow from ungauged basins. In particular, these approaches allow for predicting flows under uncertain and potentially variable future conditions due to rapid land cover changes, variable climate conditions, and other factors. Despite the broad range of literature on estimating rainfall-runoff model parameters, however, the absence of a robust set of modeling tools for identifying and quantifying uncertainties in (and correlation between) rainfall-runoff model parameters represents a significant gap in current hydrological modeling research. Here, we build upon a series of recent publications promoting novel Bayesian and probabilistic modeling strategies for quantifying rainfall-runoff model parameter estimation uncertainty. Our approach applies alternative measures of rainfall-runoff model parameter joint likelihood (including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, among others) to simulate samples from the joint parameter posterior probability density function. We then use these correlated samples as response variables in a Bayesian hierarchical model with land use coverage data as predictor variables in order to develop a robust land use-based tool for forecasting flow in ungauged basins while accounting for, and explicitly acknowledging, parameter estimation uncertainty. We apply this modeling strategy to low-relief coastal watersheds of Eastern North Carolina, an area representative of coastal resource waters throughout the world because of its sensitive embayments and because of the abundant (but currently threatened) natural resources it hosts. Consequently, this area is the subject of several ongoing studies and large-scale planning initiatives, including those conducted through the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) total maximum daily load (TMDL) program, as well as those addressing coastal population dynamics and sea level rise. Our approach has several advantages, including the propagation of parameter uncertainty through a nonparametric probability distribution which avoids common pitfalls of fitting parameters and model error structure to a predetermined parametric distribution function. In addition, by explicitly acknowledging correlation between model parameters (and reflecting those correlations in our predictive model) our model yields relatively efficient prediction intervals (unlike those in the current literature which are often unnecessarily large, and may lead to overly-conservative management actions). Finally, our model helps improve understanding of the rainfall-runoff process by identifying model parameters (and associated catchment attributes) which are most sensitive to current and future land use change patterns. Disclaimer: Although this work was reviewed by EPA and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy.

What is the relationship between free flow and pressure flow studies in women?

PubMed

Duckett, Jonathan; Cheema, Katherine; Patil, Avanti; Basu, Maya; Beale, Sian; Wise, Brian

2013-03-01

The relationship between free flow (FFS) and pressure flow (PFS) voiding studies remains uncertain and the effect of a urethral catheter on flow rates has not been determined. The relationship between residuals obtained at FF and PFS has yet to be established. This was a prospective cohort study based on 474 consecutive women undergoing cystometry using different sized urethral catheters at different centres. FFS and PFS data were compared for different conditions and the relationship of residuals analysed for FFS and PFS. The null hypothesis was that urethral catheters do not produce an alteration in maximum flow rates for PFS and FF studies. Urethral catheterisation results in lower flow rates (p < 0.01) and this finding is confirmed when flows are corrected for voided volume (p < 0.01). FFS and PFS maximum flow rates are lower in women with DO than USI (p < 0.01). A 6-F urethral catheter does not have a significantly greater effect than a 4.5-F urethral catheter. A mathematical model can be applied to transform FFS to PFS flow rates and vice versa. There was no significant difference between the mean residuals of the two groups (FFS vs PFS-two-tailed t = 0.54, p = 0.59). Positive residuals in FFS showed a good association with positive residuals in the PFS (r = 0.53, p < 0.01) Urethral catheterisation results in lower maximum flow rates. The relationship can be compared mathematically. The null hypothesis can be rejected.

Simplex-stochastic collocation method with improved scalability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edeling, W. N.; Dwight, R. P.; Cinnella, P.

2016-04-01

The Simplex-Stochastic Collocation (SSC) method is a robust tool used to propagate uncertain input distributions through a computer code. However, it becomes prohibitively expensive for problems with dimensions higher than 5. The main purpose of this paper is to identify bottlenecks, and to improve upon this bad scalability. In order to do so, we propose an alternative interpolation stencil technique based upon the Set-Covering problem, and we integrate the SSC method in the High-Dimensional Model-Reduction framework. In addition, we address the issue of ill-conditioned sample matrices, and we present an analytical map to facilitate uniformly-distributed simplex sampling.

Sodium nitroprusside increases human skeletal muscle blood flow, but does not change flow distribution or glucose uptake.

PubMed

Pitkanen, O P; Laine, H; Kemppainen, J; Eronen, E; Alanen, A; Raitakari, M; Kirvela, O; Ruotsalainen, U; Knuuti, J; Koivisto, V A; Nuutila, P

1999-12-15

1. The role of blood flow as a determinant of skeletal muscle glucose uptake is at present controversial and results of previous studies are confounded by possible direct effects of vasoactive agents on glucose uptake. Since increase in muscle blood flow can be due to increased flow velocity or recruitment of new capillaries, or both, it would be ideal to determine whether the vasoactive agent affects flow distribution or only increases the mean flow. 2. In the present study blood flow, flow distribution and glucose uptake were measured simultaneously in both legs of 10 healthy men (aged 29 +/- 1 years, body mass index 24 +/- 1 kg m-2) using positron emission tomography (PET) combined with [15O]H2O and [18F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG). The role of blood flow in muscle glucose uptake was studied by increasing blood flow in one leg with sodium nitroprusside (SNP) and measuring glucose uptake simultaneously in both legs during euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemia (insulin infusion 6 pmol kg-1 min-1). 3. SNP infusion increased skeletal muscle blood flow by 86 % (P < 0.01), but skeletal muscle flow distribution and insulin-stimulated glucose uptake (61.4 +/- 7. 5 vs. 67.0 +/- 7.5 micromol kg-1 min-1, control vs. SNP infused leg, not significant), as well as flow distribution between different tissues of the femoral region, remained unchanged. The effect of SNP infusion on blood flow and distribution were unchanged during infusion of physiological levels of insulin (duration, 150 min). 4. Despite a significant increase in mean blood flow induced by an intra-arterial infusion of SNP, glucose uptake and flow distribution remained unchanged in resting muscles of healthy subjects. These findings suggest that SNP, an endothelium-independent vasodilator, increases non-nutritive, but not nutritive flow or capillary recruitment.

Robust Architectures for Complex Multi-Agent Heterogeneous Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-23

establish the tradeoff between the control performance and the QoS of the communications network . We also derived the performance bound on the difference...accomplished within this time period leveraged the prior accomplishments in the area of networked multi-agent systems. The past work (prior to 2011...distributed control of uncertain networked systems [3]. Additionally, a preliminary collision avoidance algorithm has been developed for a team of

Distributed Episodic and Analogical Reasoning (DEAR)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

of a more abstract class like environmental catastrophe. Analogical reasoning researchers like Gentner and Stevens (1983) caution that “the...hurricane and an earthquake can be useful for quickly determining how to respond to an environmental catastrophe in general but will need to be...with Uncertain Dynamic Outside Options. Proceedings of the First IEEE International Workshop on Electronic Contracting ( WEC 󈧈), p.54-61, July 06-06

Adaptive Decision Making Using Probabilistic Programming and Stochastic Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-01

world optimization problems (and hence 16 Approved for Public Release (PA); Distribution Unlimited Pred. demand (uncertain; discrete ...simplify the setting, we further assume that the demands are discrete , taking on values d1, . . . , dk with probabilities (conditional on x) (pθ)i ≡ p...Tyrrell Rockafellar. Implicit functions and solution mappings. Springer Monogr. Math ., 2009. Anthony V Fiacco and Yo Ishizuka. Sensitivity and stability

Phylogeny of Priapulida.

PubMed

Shapeero, W L

1961-03-24

The systematic position of the small invertebrate group, Priapulida, is uncertain. In more recent publications they are classified usually as pseudocoelomates in the division Aschelminthes. A histological investigation of Priapulus caudatus, a widely distributed species, reveals the body cavity to be a coelom, its lining a peritoneum. These features, and others, indicate the priapulids to be. coelomates rather than pseudocoelomates. Unique morphology perhaps qualifies the group for the status of phylum.

Combined point and distributed techniques for multidimensional estimation of spatial groundwater-stream water exchange in a heterogeneous sand bed-stream.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaona Garcia, J.; Lewandowski, J.; Bellin, A.

2017-12-01

Groundwater-stream water interactions in rivers determine water balances, but also chemical and biological processes in the streambed at different spatial and temporal scales. Due to the difficult identification and quantification of gaining, neutral and losing conditions, it is necessary to combine techniques with complementary capabilities and scale ranges. We applied this concept to a study site at the River Schlaube, East Brandenburg-Germany, a sand bed stream with intense sediment heterogeneity and complex environmental conditions. In our approach, point techniques such as temperature profiles of the streambed together with vertical hydraulic gradients provide data for the estimation of fluxes between groundwater and surface water with the numerical model 1DTempPro. On behalf of distributed techniques, fiber optic distributed temperature sensing identifies the spatial patterns of neutral, down- and up-welling areas by analysis of the changes in the thermal patterns at the streambed interface under certain flow. The study finally links point and surface temperatures to provide a method for upscaling of fluxes. Point techniques provide point flux estimates with essential depth detail to infer streambed structures while the results hardly represent the spatial distribution of fluxes caused by the heterogeneity of streambed properties. Fiber optics proved capable of providing spatial thermal patterns with enough resolution to observe distinct hyporheic thermal footprints at multiple scales. The relation of thermal footprint patterns and temporal behavior with flux results from point techniques enabled the use of methods for spatial flux estimates. The lack of detailed information of the physical driver's spatial distribution restricts the spatial flux estimation to the application of the T-proxy method, whose highly uncertain results mainly provide coarse spatial flux estimates. The study concludes that the upscaling of groundwater-stream water interactions using thermal measurements with combined point and distributed techniques requires the integration of physical drivers because of the heterogeneity of the flux patterns. Combined experimental and modeling approaches may help to obtain more reliable understanding of groundwater-surface water interactions at multiple scales.

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for the 2014 Chilean earthquake. Results show that leading wave measurements fall within the tsunami sample space. At later times, however, there are mismatches between measured data and the simulated results, suggesting that other sources of uncertainty are as relevant as the uncertainty of the studied earthquake characteristics.

Robust scalable stabilisability conditions for large-scale heterogeneous multi-agent systems with uncertain nonlinear interactions: towards a distributed computing architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfredi, Sabato

2016-06-01

Large-scale dynamic systems are becoming highly pervasive in their occurrence with applications ranging from system biology, environment monitoring, sensor networks, and power systems. They are characterised by high dimensionality, complexity, and uncertainty in the node dynamic/interactions that require more and more computational demanding methods for their analysis and control design, as well as the network size and node system/interaction complexity increase. Therefore, it is a challenging problem to find scalable computational method for distributed control design of large-scale networks. In this paper, we investigate the robust distributed stabilisation problem of large-scale nonlinear multi-agent systems (briefly MASs) composed of non-identical (heterogeneous) linear dynamical systems coupled by uncertain nonlinear time-varying interconnections. By employing Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique, new conditions are given for the distributed control design of large-scale MASs that can be easily solved by the toolbox of MATLAB. The stabilisability of each node dynamic is a sufficient assumption to design a global stabilising distributed control. The proposed approach improves some of the existing LMI-based results on MAS by both overcoming their computational limits and extending the applicative scenario to large-scale nonlinear heterogeneous MASs. Additionally, the proposed LMI conditions are further reduced in terms of computational requirement in the case of weakly heterogeneous MASs, which is a common scenario in real application where the network nodes and links are affected by parameter uncertainties. One of the main advantages of the proposed approach is to allow to move from a centralised towards a distributed computing architecture so that the expensive computation workload spent to solve LMIs may be shared among processors located at the networked nodes, thus increasing the scalability of the approach than the network size. Finally, a numerical example shows the applicability of the proposed method and its advantage in terms of computational complexity when compared with the existing approaches.

A statistical study of magnetopause structures: Tangential versus rotational discontinuities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Y.-C.; Hau, L.-N.

2012-08-01

A statistical study of the structure of Earth's magnetopause is carried out by analyzing two-year AMPTE/IRM plasma and magnetic field data. The analyses are based on the minimum variance analysis (MVA), the deHoffmann-Teller (HT) frame analysis and the Walén relation. A total of 328 magnetopause crossings are identified and error estimates associated with MVA and HT frame analyses are performed for each case. In 142 out of 328 events both MVA and HT frame analyses yield high quality results which are classified as either tangential-discontinuity (TD) or rotational-discontinuity (RD) structures based only on the Walén relation: Events withSWA ≤ 0.4 (SWA ≥ 0.5) are classified as TD (RD), and rest (with 0.4 < SWA < 0.5) is classified as "uncertain," where SWA refers to the Walén slope. With this criterion, 84% of 142 events are TDs, 12% are RDs, and 4% are uncertain events. There are a large portion of TD events which exhibit a finite normal magnetic field component Bnbut have insignificant flow as compared to the Alfvén velocity in the HT frame. Two-dimensional Grad-Shafranov reconstruction of forty selected TD and RD events show that single or multiple X-line accompanied with magnetic islands are common feature of magnetopause current. A survey plot of the HT velocity associated with TD structures projected onto the magnetopause shows that the flow is diverted at the subsolar point and accelerated toward the dawn and dusk flanks.

A Robust Adaptive Unscented Kalman Filter for Nonlinear Estimation with Uncertain Noise Covariance.

PubMed

Zheng, Binqi; Fu, Pengcheng; Li, Baoqing; Yuan, Xiaobing

2018-03-07

The Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) may suffer from performance degradation and even divergence while mismatch between the noise distribution assumed as a priori by users and the actual ones in a real nonlinear system. To resolve this problem, this paper proposes a robust adaptive UKF (RAUKF) to improve the accuracy and robustness of state estimation with uncertain noise covariance. More specifically, at each timestep, a standard UKF will be implemented first to obtain the state estimations using the new acquired measurement data. Then an online fault-detection mechanism is adopted to judge if it is necessary to update current noise covariance. If necessary, innovation-based method and residual-based method are used to calculate the estimations of current noise covariance of process and measurement, respectively. By utilizing a weighting factor, the filter will combine the last noise covariance matrices with the estimations as the new noise covariance matrices. Finally, the state estimations will be corrected according to the new noise covariance matrices and previous state estimations. Compared with the standard UKF and other adaptive UKF algorithms, RAUKF converges faster to the actual noise covariance and thus achieves a better performance in terms of robustness, accuracy, and computation for nonlinear estimation with uncertain noise covariance, which is demonstrated by the simulation results.

A Robust Adaptive Unscented Kalman Filter for Nonlinear Estimation with Uncertain Noise Covariance

PubMed Central

Zheng, Binqi; Yuan, Xiaobing

2018-01-01

The Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) may suffer from performance degradation and even divergence while mismatch between the noise distribution assumed as a priori by users and the actual ones in a real nonlinear system. To resolve this problem, this paper proposes a robust adaptive UKF (RAUKF) to improve the accuracy and robustness of state estimation with uncertain noise covariance. More specifically, at each timestep, a standard UKF will be implemented first to obtain the state estimations using the new acquired measurement data. Then an online fault-detection mechanism is adopted to judge if it is necessary to update current noise covariance. If necessary, innovation-based method and residual-based method are used to calculate the estimations of current noise covariance of process and measurement, respectively. By utilizing a weighting factor, the filter will combine the last noise covariance matrices with the estimations as the new noise covariance matrices. Finally, the state estimations will be corrected according to the new noise covariance matrices and previous state estimations. Compared with the standard UKF and other adaptive UKF algorithms, RAUKF converges faster to the actual noise covariance and thus achieves a better performance in terms of robustness, accuracy, and computation for nonlinear estimation with uncertain noise covariance, which is demonstrated by the simulation results. PMID:29518960

The Robustness Analysis of Wireless Sensor Networks under Uncertain Interference

PubMed Central

Deng, Changjian

2013-01-01

Based on the complex network theory, robustness analysis of condition monitoring wireless sensor network under uncertain interference is present. In the evolution of the topology of sensor networks, the density weighted algebraic connectivity is taken into account, and the phenomenon of removing and repairing the link and node in the network is discussed. Numerical simulation is conducted to explore algebraic connectivity characteristics and network robustness performance. It is found that nodes density has the effect on algebraic connectivity distribution in the random graph model; high density nodes carry more connections, use more throughputs, and may be more unreliable. Moreover, the results show that, when network should be more error tolerant or robust by repairing nodes or adding new nodes, the network should be better clustered in median and high scale wireless sensor networks and be meshing topology in small scale networks. PMID:24363613

A Control Variate Method for Probabilistic Performance Assessment. Improved Estimates for Mean Performance Quantities of Interest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacKinnon, Robert J.; Kuhlman, Kristopher L

2016-05-01

We present a method of control variates for calculating improved estimates for mean performance quantities of interest, E(PQI) , computed from Monte Carlo probabilistic simulations. An example of a PQI is the concentration of a contaminant at a particular location in a problem domain computed from simulations of transport in porous media. To simplify the presentation, the method is described in the setting of a one- dimensional elliptical model problem involving a single uncertain parameter represented by a probability distribution. The approach can be easily implemented for more complex problems involving multiple uncertain parameters and in particular for application tomore » probabilistic performance assessment of deep geologic nuclear waste repository systems. Numerical results indicate the method can produce estimates of E(PQI)having superior accuracy on coarser meshes and reduce the required number of simulations needed to achieve an acceptable estimate.« less

The option value of delay in health technology assessment.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

2008-01-01

Processes of health technology assessment (HTA) inform decisions under uncertainty about whether to invest in new technologies based on evidence of incremental effects, incremental cost, and incremental net benefit monetary (INMB). An option value to delaying such decisions to wait for further evidence is suggested in the usual case of interest, in which the prior distribution of INMB is positive but uncertain. of estimating the option value of delaying decisions to invest have previously been developed when investments are irreversible with an uncertain payoff over time and information is assumed fixed. However, in HTA decision uncertainty relates to information (evidence) on the distribution of INMB. This article demonstrates that the option value of delaying decisions to allow collection of further evidence can be estimated as the expected value of sample of information (EVSI). For irreversible decisions, delay and trial (DT) is demonstrated to be preferred to adopt and no trial (AN) when the EVSI exceeds expected costs of information, including expected opportunity costs of not treating patients with the new therapy. For reversible decisions, adopt and trial (AT) becomes a potentially optimal strategy, but costs of reversal are shown to reduce the EVSI of this strategy due to both a lower probability of reversal being optimal and lower payoffs when reversal is optimal. Hence, decision makers are generally shown to face joint research and reimbursement decisions (AN, DT and AT), with the optimal choice dependent on costs of reversal as well as opportunity costs of delay and the distribution of prior INMB.

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

2016-01-01

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Axisymmetric Flow Properties for Magnetic Elements of Differing Strength

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rightmire-Upton, Lisa; Hathaway, David H.

2012-01-01

Aspects of the structure and dynamics of the flows in the Sun's surface shear layer remain uncertain and yet are critically important for understanding the observed magnetic behavior. In our previous studies of the axisymmetric transport of magnetic elements we found systematic changes in both the differential rotation and the meridional flow over the course of Solar Cycle 23. Here we examine how those flows depend upon the strength (and presumably anchoring depth) of the magnetic elements. Line of sight magnetograms obtained by the HMI instrument aboard SDO over the course of Carrington Rotation 2097 were mapped to heliographic coordinates and averaged over 12 minutes to remove the 5-min oscillations. Data masks were constructed based on the field strength of each mapped pixel to isolate magnetic elements of differing field strength. We used Local Correlation Tracking of the unmasked data (separated in time by 1- to 8-hours) to determine the longitudinal and latitudinal motions of the magnetic elements. We then calculated average flow velocities as functions of latitude and longitude from the central meridian for approx 600 image pairs over the 27-day rotation. Variations with longitude indicate and characterize systematic errors in the flow measurements associated with changes in the signal from disk center to limb. Removing these systematic errors reveals changes in the axisymmetric flow properties that reflect changes in flow properties with depth in the surface shear layer.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation of species distributions: a case study of the swift fox in western Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, Glen A.; Sovada, Marsha A.; Slivinski, Christiane C.; Johnson, Douglas H.

2005-01-01

Accurate maps of species distributions are essential tools for wildlife research and conservation. Unfortunately, biologists often are forced to rely on maps derived from observed occurrences recorded opportunistically during observation periods of variable length. Spurious inferences are likely to result because such maps are profoundly affected by the duration and intensity of observation and by methods used to delineate distributions, especially when detection is uncertain. We conducted a systematic survey of swift fox (Vulpes velox) distribution in western Kansas, USA, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) image restoration to rectify these problems. During 1997–1999, we searched 355 townships (ca. 93 km) 1–3 times each for an average cost of $7,315 per year and achieved a detection rate (probability of detecting swift foxes, if present, during a single search) of = 0.69 (95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = [0.60, 0.77]). Our analysis produced an estimate of the underlying distribution, rather than a map of observed occurrences, that reflected the uncertainty associated with estimates of model parameters. To evaluate our results, we analyzed simulated data with similar properties. Results of our simulations suggest negligible bias and good precision when probabilities of detection on ≥1 survey occasions (cumulative probabilities of detection) exceed 0.65. Although the use of MCMC image restoration has been limited by theoretical and computational complexities, alternatives do not possess the same advantages. Image models accommodate uncertain detection, do not require spatially independent data or a census of map units, and can be used to estimate species distributions directly from observations without relying on habitat covariates or parameters that must be estimated subjectively. These features facilitate economical surveys of large regions, the detection of temporal trends in distribution, and assessments of landscape-level relations between species and habitats. Requirements for the use of MCMC image restoration include study areas that can be partitioned into regular grids of mapping units, spatially contagious species distributions, reliable methods for identifying target species, and cumulative probabilities of detection ≥0.65.

Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation of species distributions: A case study of the swift fox in western Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, G.A.; Sovada, M.A.; Slivinski, C.C.; Johnson, D.H.

2005-01-01

Accurate maps of species distributions are essential tools for wildlife research and conservation. Unfortunately, biologists often are forced to rely on maps derived from observed occurrences recorded opportunistically during observation periods of variable length. Spurious inferences are likely to result because such maps are profoundly affected by the duration and intensity of observation and by methods used to delineate distributions, especially when detection is uncertain. We conducted a systematic survey of swift fox (Vulpes velox) distribution in western Kansas, USA, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) image restoration to rectify these problems. During 1997-1999, we searched 355 townships (ca. 93 km2) 1-3 times each for an average cost of $7,315 per year and achieved a detection rate (probability of detecting swift foxes, if present, during a single search) of ?? = 0.69 (95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = [0.60, 0.77]). Our analysis produced an estimate of the underlying distribution, rather than a map of observed occurrences, that reflected the uncertainty associated with estimates of model parameters. To evaluate our results, we analyzed simulated data with similar properties. Results of our simulations suggest negligible bias and good precision when probabilities of detection on ???1 survey occasions (cumulative probabilities of detection) exceed 0.65. Although the use of MCMC image restoration has been limited by theoretical and computational complexities, alternatives do not possess the same advantages. Image models accommodate uncertain detection, do not require spatially independent data or a census of map units, and can be used to estimate species distributions directly from observations without relying on habitat covariates or parameters that must be estimated subjectively. These features facilitate economical surveys of large regions, the detection of temporal trends in distribution, and assessments of landscape-level relations between species and habitats. Requirements for the use of MCMC image restoration include study areas that can be partitioned into regular grids of mapping units, spatially contagious species distributions, reliable methods for identifying target species, and cumulative probabilities of detection ???0.65.

Uncertainly Analysis of Two Types of Humidity Sensors by a Humidity Generator with a Divided-Flow System.

PubMed

Chen, Ling-Hsi; Chen, Chiachung

2018-02-21

Humidity measurement is an important technique for the agricultural, foods, pharmaceuticals, and chemical industries. For the sake of convenience, electrical relative humidity (RH) sensors have been widely used. These sensors need to be calibrated to ensure their accuracy and the uncertainty measurement of these sensors has become a major concern. In this study, a self-made divided-flow generator was established to calibrate two types of electrical humidity sensors. The standard reference humidity was calculated from dew-point temperature and air dry-bulb temperature measured by a chilled mirror monitor. This divided-flow generator could produce consistent result of RH measurement results. The uncertainty of the reference standard increased with the increase of RH values. The combined uncertainty with the adequate calibration equations were ranged from 0.82% to 1.45% RH for resistive humidity sensors and 0.63% to 1.4% for capacitive humidity sensors, respectively. This self-made, divided-flow generator, and calibration method are cheap, time-saving, and easy to be used. Thus, the proposed approach can easily be applied in research laboratories.

Uncertainly Analysis of Two Types of Humidity Sensors by a Humidity Generator with a Divided-Flow System

PubMed Central

Chen, Ling-Hsi

2018-01-01

Humidity measurement is an important technique for the agricultural, foods, pharmaceuticals, and chemical industries. For the sake of convenience, electrical relative humidity (RH) sensors have been widely used. These sensors need to be calibrated to ensure their accuracy and the uncertainty measurement of these sensors has become a major concern. In this study, a self-made divided-flow generator was established to calibrate two types of electrical humidity sensors. The standard reference humidity was calculated from dew-point temperature and air dry-bulb temperature measured by a chilled mirror monitor. This divided-flow generator could produce consistent result of RH measurement results. The uncertainty of the reference standard increased with the increase of RH values. The combined uncertainty with the adequate calibration equations were ranged from 0.82% to 1.45% RH for resistive humidity sensors and 0.63% to 1.4% for capacitive humidity sensors, respectively. This self-made, divided-flow generator, and calibration method are cheap, time-saving, and easy to be used. Thus, the proposed approach can easily be applied in research laboratories. PMID:29466313

Computational Support of 9x7 Wind Tunnel Test of Sonic Boom Models with Plumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, James C.; Denison, Marie; Durston, Don; Cliff, Susan E.

2017-01-01

NASA and its industry partners are performing studies of supersonic aircraft concepts with low sonic boom pressure signatures. The interaction of the nozzle jet flow with the aircrafts' aft components is typically where the greatest uncertainly in the pressure signature is observed with high-fidelity numerical simulations. An extensive wind tunnel test was conducted in February 2016 in the NASA Ames 9- by 7- Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel to help address the nozzle jet effects on sonic boom. Five test models with a variety of shock generators of differing waveforms and strengths were tested with a convergent-divergent nozzle for a wide range of nozzle pressure ratios. The LAVA unstructured flow solver was used to generate first CFD comparisons with the new experimental database using best practice meshing and analysis techniques for sonic boom vehicle design for all five different configurations. LAVA was also used to redesign the internal flow path of the nozzle and to better understand the flow field in the test section, both of which significantly improved the quality of the test data.

Study on Fins' Effect of Boiling Flow in Millimeter Channel Heat Exchanger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Satoshi

2005-11-01

Recently, a lot of researches about compact heat exchangers with mini-channels have been carried out with the hope of obtaining a high-efficiency heat transfer, due to the higher ratio of surface area than existing heat exchangers. However, there are many uncertain phenomena in fields such as boiling flow in mini-channels. Thus, in order to understand the boiling flow in mini-channels to design high-efficiency heat exchangers, this work focused on the visualization measurement of boiling flow in a millimeter channel. A transparent acrylic channel (heat exchanger form), high-speed camera (2000 fps at 1024 x 1024 pixels), and halogen lamp (backup light) were used as the visualization system. The channel's depth is 2 mm, width is 30 mm, and length is 400 mm. In preparation for commercial use, two types of channels were experimented on: a fins type and a normal slit type (without fins). The fins are circular cylindrical obstacles (diameter is 5 mm) to promote heat transfer, set in a triangular array (distance between each center point is 10 mm). Especially in this work, boiling flow and heat transfer promotion in the millimeter channel heat exchanger with fins was evaluated using a high-speed camera.

Flow distribution in parallel microfluidic networks and its effect on concentration gradient

PubMed Central

Guermonprez, Cyprien; Michelin, Sébastien; Baroud, Charles N.

2015-01-01

The architecture of microfluidic networks can significantly impact the flow distribution within its different branches and thereby influence tracer transport within the network. In this paper, we study the flow rate distribution within a network of parallel microfluidic channels with a single input and single output, using a combination of theoretical modeling and microfluidic experiments. Within the ladder network, the flow rate distribution follows a U-shaped profile, with the highest flow rate occurring in the initial and final branches. The contrast with the central branches is controlled by a single dimensionless parameter, namely, the ratio of hydrodynamic resistance between the distribution channel and the side branches. This contrast in flow rates decreases when the resistance of the side branches increases relative to the resistance of the distribution channel. When the inlet flow is composed of two parallel streams, one of which transporting a diffusing species, a concentration variation is produced within the side branches of the network. The shape of this concentration gradient is fully determined by two dimensionless parameters: the ratio of resistances, which determines the flow rate distribution, and the Péclet number, which characterizes the relative speed of diffusion and advection. Depending on the values of these two control parameters, different distribution profiles can be obtained ranging from a flat profile to a step distribution of solute, with well-distributed gradients between these two limits. Our experimental results are in agreement with our numerical model predictions, based on a simplified 2D advection-diffusion problem. Finally, two possible applications of this work are presented: the first one combines the present design with self-digitization principle to encapsulate the controlled concentration in nanoliter chambers, while the second one extends the present design to create a continuous concentration gradient within an open flow chamber. PMID:26487905

Regimes of Flow over Complex Structures of Endothelial Glycocalyx: A Molecular Dynamics Simulation Study.

PubMed

Jiang, Xi Zhuo; Feng, Muye; Ventikos, Yiannis; Luo, Kai H

2018-04-10

Flow patterns on surfaces grafted with complex structures play a pivotal role in many engineering and biomedical applications. In this research, large-scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are conducted to study the flow over complex surface structures of an endothelial glycocalyx layer. A detailed structure of glycocalyx has been adopted and the flow/glycocalyx system comprises about 5,800,000 atoms. Four cases involving varying external forces and modified glycocalyx configurations are constructed to reveal intricate fluid behaviour. Flow profiles including temporal evolutions and spatial distributions of velocity are illustrated. Moreover, streamline length and vorticity distributions under the four scenarios are compared and discussed to elucidate the effects of external forces and glycocalyx configurations on flow patterns. Results show that sugar chain configurations affect streamline length distributions but their impact on vorticity distributions is statistically insignificant, whilst the influence of the external forces on both streamline length and vorticity distributions are trivial. Finally, a regime diagram for flow over complex surface structures is proposed to categorise flow patterns.

Advanced porous electrodes with flow channels for vanadium redox flow battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattarai, Arjun; Wai, Nyunt; Schweiss, Ruediger; Whitehead, Adam; Lim, Tuti M.; Hng, Huey Hoon

2017-02-01

Improving the overall energy efficiency by reducing pumping power and improving flow distribution of electrolyte, is a major challenge for developers of flow batteries. The use of suitable channels can improve flow distribution through the electrodes and reduce flow resistance, hence reducing the energy consumption of the pumps. Although several studies of vanadium redox flow battery have proposed the use of bipolar plates with flow channels, similar to fuel cell designs, this paper presents the use of flow channels in the porous electrode as an alternative approach. Four types of electrodes with channels: rectangular open channel, interdigitated open cut channel, interdigitated circular poked channel and cross poked circular channels, are studied and compared with a conventional electrode without channels. Our study shows that interdigitated open channels can improve the overall energy efficiency up to 2.7% due to improvement in flow distribution and pump power reduction while interdigitated poked channel can improve up to 2.5% due to improvement in flow distribution.

The Effects of the Previous Outcome on Probabilistic Choice in Rats

PubMed Central

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2014-01-01

This study examined the effects of previous outcomes on subsequent choices in a probabilistic-choice task. Twenty-four rats were trained to choose between a certain outcome (1 or 3 pellets) versus an uncertain outcome (3 or 9 pellets), delivered with a probability of .1, .33, .67, and .9 in different phases. Uncertain outcome choices increased with the probability of uncertain food. Additionally, uncertain choices increased with the probability of uncertain food following both certain-choice outcomes and unrewarded uncertain choices. However, following uncertain-choice food outcomes, there was a tendency to choose the uncertain outcome in all cases, indicating that the rats continued to “gamble” after successful uncertain choices, regardless of the overall probability or magnitude of food. A subsequent manipulation, in which the probability of uncertain food varied within each session as a function of the previous uncertain outcome, examined how the previous outcome and probability of uncertain food affected choice in a dynamic environment. Uncertain-choice behavior increased with the probability of uncertain food. The rats exhibited increased sensitivity to probability changes and a greater degree of win–stay/lose–shift behavior than in the static phase. Simulations of two sequential choice models were performed to explore the possible mechanisms of reward value computations. The simulation results supported an exponentially decaying value function that updated as a function of trial (rather than time). These results emphasize the importance of analyzing global and local factors in choice behavior and suggest avenues for the future development of sequential-choice models. PMID:23205915

Cooperative Adaptive Output Regulation for Second-Order Nonlinear Multiagent Systems With Jointly Connected Switching Networks.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Huang, Jie

2018-03-01

This paper studies the cooperative global robust output regulation problem for a class of heterogeneous second-order nonlinear uncertain multiagent systems with jointly connected switching networks. The main contributions consist of the following three aspects. First, we generalize the result of the adaptive distributed observer from undirected jointly connected switching networks to directed jointly connected switching networks. Second, by performing a new coordinate and input transformation, we convert our problem into the cooperative global robust stabilization problem of a more complex augmented system via the distributed internal model principle. Third, we solve the stabilization problem by a distributed state feedback control law. Our result is illustrated by the leader-following consensus problem for a group of Van der Pol oscillators.

Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Sriram

After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

2010-05-01

Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted scenarios, is essential. We believe that the efficient communication of uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts is not a mission impossible. Questions remaining unanswered in probabilistic hydrological forecasting should not neutralize the goal of such a mission, and the suspense kept should instead act as a catalyst for overcoming the remaining challenges.

Experimental study of flow distribution and pressure loss with circumferential inlet and outlet manifolds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dittrich, R. T.

1972-01-01

Water flow tests with circumferential inlet and outlet manifolds were conducted to determine factors affecting fluid distribution and pressure losses. Various orifice sizes and manifold geometries were tested over a range of flow velocities. With inlet manifolds, flow distribution was related directly to orifice discharge coefficients. A correlation indicated that nonuniform distribution resulted when the velocity head ratio at the orifice was not in the range of constant discharge coefficient. With outlet manifolds, nonuniform flow was related to static pressure variations along the manifold. Outlet manifolds had appreciably greater pressure losses than comparable inlet manifolds.

An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles

2014-03-01

A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing themore » range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.« less

Load flow and state estimation algorithms for three-phase unbalanced power distribution systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madvesh, Chiranjeevi

Distribution load flow and state estimation are two important functions in distribution energy management systems (DEMS) and advanced distribution automation (ADA) systems. Distribution load flow analysis is a tool which helps to analyze the status of a power distribution system under steady-state operating conditions. In this research, an effective and comprehensive load flow algorithm is developed to extensively incorporate the distribution system components. Distribution system state estimation is a mathematical procedure which aims to estimate the operating states of a power distribution system by utilizing the information collected from available measurement devices in real-time. An efficient and computationally effective state estimation algorithm adapting the weighted-least-squares (WLS) method has been developed in this research. Both the developed algorithms are tested on different IEEE test-feeders and the results obtained are justified.

Robust Feedback Control of Reconfigurable Multi-Agent Systems in Uncertain Adversarial Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-09

R. G., Optimal Lunar Landing and Retargeting using a Hybrid Control Strategy. Proceedings of the 2013 AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting (AAS...Furfaro, R. & Sanfelice, R. G., Switching System Model for Pinpoint Lunar Landing Guidance Using a Hybrid Control Strategy. Proceedings of the AIAA...methods in distributed settings and the design of numerical methods to properly compute their trajectories . We have generate results showing that

Generalized Distributed Consensus-based Algorithms for Uncertain Systems and Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

time linear systems with markovian jumping parameters and additive disturbances. SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, 44(4):1165– 1191, 2005... time marko- vian jump linear systems , in the presence of delayed mode observations. Proceed- ings of the 2008 IEEE American Control Conference, pages...Markovian Jump Linear System state estimation . . . . 147 6 Conclusions 152 A Discrete- Time Coupled Matrix Equations 156 A.1 Properties of a special

Bayesian multiple-source localization in an uncertain ocean environment.

PubMed

Dosso, Stan E; Wilmut, Michael J

2011-06-01

This paper considers simultaneous localization of multiple acoustic sources when properties of the ocean environment (water column and seabed) are poorly known. A Bayesian formulation is developed in which the environmental parameters, noise statistics, and locations and complex strengths (amplitudes and phases) of multiple sources are considered to be unknown random variables constrained by acoustic data and prior information. Two approaches are considered for estimating source parameters. Focalization maximizes the posterior probability density (PPD) over all parameters using adaptive hybrid optimization. Marginalization integrates the PPD using efficient Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods to produce joint marginal probability distributions for source ranges and depths, from which source locations are obtained. This approach also provides quantitative uncertainty analysis for all parameters, which can aid in understanding of the inverse problem and may be of practical interest (e.g., source-strength probability distributions). In both approaches, closed-form maximum-likelihood expressions for source strengths and noise variance at each frequency allow these parameters to be sampled implicitly, substantially reducing the dimensionality and difficulty of the inversion. Examples are presented of both approaches applied to single- and multi-frequency localization of multiple sources in an uncertain shallow-water environment, and a Monte Carlo performance evaluation study is carried out. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Incorporating linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information in a risk-based approach for ranking contaminated sites.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Pei, Yuansheng

2010-10-01

Different types of uncertain information-linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic-exist in site characterization. Their representation and propagation significantly influence the management of contaminated sites. In the absence of a framework with which to properly represent and integrate these quantitative and qualitative inputs together, decision makers cannot fully take advantage of the available and necessary information to identify all the plausible alternatives. A systematic methodology was developed in the present work to incorporate linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information into the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods for ranking contaminated sites. The identification of criteria based on the paradigm of comparative risk assessment provides a rationale for risk-based prioritization. Uncertain linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information identified in characterizing contaminated sites can be properly represented as numerical values, intervals, probability distributions, and fuzzy sets or possibility distributions, and linguistic variables according to their nature. These different kinds of representation are first transformed into a 2-tuple linguistic representation domain. The propagation of hybrid uncertainties is then carried out in the same domain. This methodology can use the original site information directly as much as possible. The case study shows that this systematic methodology provides more reasonable results. © 2010 SETAC.

Derivation of Lake Areas and Elevations for the Mackenzie Basin Using Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birkett, Charon; Kite, Geoff

1997-01-01

Modelling hydrological processes in large watersheds flowing to the Arctic ocean is one step towards larger-scale modelling of the global water and energy cycles. Models of the Mackenzie River Basin (Northern Canada) are currently available but omit explicit routing of river flows through the three main lakes - Athabasca, Great Slave Lake and Great Bear Lake (Kite et al, 1994). These lakes occupy an area of 65,000 sq km but little gauge information is available. The levels of the lakes are only measured at a few points on the circumferences and river flows are only measured downstream. The hydraulic relationships between level/discharge and level/area/volume are uncertain. It has been previously shown that satellite remote sensing can be utilised in providing measurements of both lake surface area using imaging techniques and lake level using radar altimetry (Birkett, 1994). Here, we explore the application of these techniques to derive the lake levels and areas for the Mackenzie Basin lakes.

Heuristic algorithms for the minmax regret flow-shop problem with interval processing times.

PubMed

Ćwik, Michał; Józefczyk, Jerzy

2018-01-01

An uncertain version of the permutation flow-shop with unlimited buffers and the makespan as a criterion is considered. The investigated parametric uncertainty is represented by given interval-valued processing times. The maximum regret is used for the evaluation of uncertainty. Consequently, the minmax regret discrete optimization problem is solved. Due to its high complexity, two relaxations are applied to simplify the optimization procedure. First of all, a greedy procedure is used for calculating the criterion's value, as such calculation is NP-hard problem itself. Moreover, the lower bound is used instead of solving the internal deterministic flow-shop. The constructive heuristic algorithm is applied for the relaxed optimization problem. The algorithm is compared with previously elaborated other heuristic algorithms basing on the evolutionary and the middle interval approaches. The conducted computational experiments showed the advantage of the constructive heuristic algorithm with regards to both the criterion and the time of computations. The Wilcoxon paired-rank statistical test confirmed this conclusion.

Interplanetary particles and fields, November 22 - December 6, 1977: Helios, Voyager, and IMP observations between 0.6 AU and 1.6 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burlaga, L. F.; Lepping, R. P.; Weber, R.; Armstrong, T.; Goodrich, C.; Sullivan, J.; Gurnett, D.; Kellogg, P.; Keppler, E.; Mariani, F.

1979-01-01

The principal interplanetary events observed are described and analyzed. Three flow systems were observed: (1) a corotating stream and a stream interface associated with a coronal hole; (2) a shock wave and an energetic particle event associated with a 2-B flare; and (3) an isolated shock wave of uncertain origin. Data from 28 experiments and 6 spacecraft provide measurements of solar wind plasma, magnetic fields, plasma waves, radio waves, energetic electrons, and low energy protons.

Cooperatively Generated Stresslet Flows Supply Fresh Fluid to Multicellular Choanoflagellate Colonies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roper, Marcus; Dayel, Mark J.; Pepper, Rachel E.; Koehl, M. A. R.

2013-05-01

The flagellated protozoan Salpingoeca rosetta is one of the closest relatives of multicellular animals. Unicellular S. rosetta can be induced to form multicellular colonies, but colonies swim more slowly than individual cells so the advantages conferred by colony formation are uncertain. Here we use theoretical models to show that hydrodynamic cooperation between cells can increase the fluid supply to the colony, an important predictor of feeding rate. Our results suggest that hydrodynamic benefits may have been an important selective factor in the evolution of early multicellular animals.

Diffusion and bulk flow in phloem loading: A theoretical analysis of the polymer trap mechanism for sugar transport in plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dölger, Julia; Rademaker, Hanna; Liesche, Johannes; Schulz, Alexander; Bohr, Tomas

2014-10-01

Plants create sugar in the mesophyll cells of their leaves by photosynthesis. This sugar, mostly sucrose, has to be loaded via the bundle sheath into the phloem vascular system (the sieve elements), where it is distributed to growing parts of the plant. We analyze the feasibility of a particular loading mechanism, active symplasmic loading, also called the polymer trap mechanism, where sucrose is transformed into heavier sugars, such as raffinose and stachyose, in the intermediary-type companion cells bordering the sieve elements in the minor veins of the phloem. Keeping the heavier sugars from diffusing back requires that the plasmodesmata connecting the bundle sheath with the intermediary cell act as extremely precise filters, which are able to distinguish between molecules that differ by less than 20% in size. In our modeling, we take into account the coupled water and sugar movement across the relevant interfaces, without explicitly considering the chemical reactions transforming the sucrose into the heavier sugars. Based on the available data for plasmodesmata geometry, sugar concentrations, and flux rates, we conclude that this mechanism can in principle function, but that it requires pores of molecular sizes. Comparing with the somewhat uncertain experimental values for sugar export rates, we expect the pores to be only 5%-10% larger than the hydraulic radius of the sucrose molecules. We find that the water flow through the plasmodesmata, which has not been quantified before, contributes only 10%-20% to the sucrose flux into the intermediary cells, while the main part is transported by diffusion. On the other hand, the subsequent sugar translocation into the sieve elements would very likely be carried predominantly by bulk water flow through the plasmodesmata. Thus, in contrast to apoplasmic loaders, all the necessary water for phloem translocation would be supplied in this way with no need for additional water uptake across the plasma membranes of the phloem.

Improved water resource management using three dimensional groundwater modelling for a highly complex environmental

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeck, Christian; Affolter, Annette; Radny, Dirk; Auckenthaler, Adrian; Huggenberger, Peter; Schirmer, Mario

2017-04-01

Proper allocation and management of groundwater is an important and critical challenge under rising water demands of various environmental sectors but good groundwater quality is often limited because of urbanization and contamination of aquifers. Given the predictive capability of groundwater models, they are often the only viable means of providing input to water management decisions. However, modelling flow and transport processes can be difficult due to their unknown subsurface heterogeneity and typically unknown distribution of contaminants. As a result water resource management tasks are based on uncertain assumption on contaminants patterns and this uncertainty is typically not incorporated into the assessment of risks associated with different proposed management scenarios. A three-dimensional groundwater model was used to improve water resource management for a study area, where drinking water production is close to different former landfills and industrial areas. To avoid drinking water contamination, artificial groundwater recharge with surface water into the gravel aquifer is used to create a hydraulic barrier between contaminated sites and drinking water extraction wells. The model was used for simulating existing and proposed water management strategies as a tool to ensure the utmost security for drinking water. A systematic evaluation of the flow direction and magnitude between existing observation points using a newly developed three point estimation method for a large amount of scenarios was carried out. Due to the numerous observation points 32 triangles (three-points) were created which cover the entire area around the Hardwald. We demonstrated that systematically applying our developed methodology helps to identify important locations which are sensitive to changing boundary conditions and where additional protection is required without highly computational demanding transport modelling. The presented integrated approach using the flow direction between observation points can be easily transferred to a variety of hydrological settings to evaluate systematically groundwater modelling scenarios.

Diffusion and bulk flow in phloem loading: a theoretical analysis of the polymer trap mechanism for sugar transport in plants.

PubMed

Dölger, Julia; Rademaker, Hanna; Liesche, Johannes; Schulz, Alexander; Bohr, Tomas

2014-10-01

Plants create sugar in the mesophyll cells of their leaves by photosynthesis. This sugar, mostly sucrose, has to be loaded via the bundle sheath into the phloem vascular system (the sieve elements), where it is distributed to growing parts of the plant. We analyze the feasibility of a particular loading mechanism, active symplasmic loading, also called the polymer trap mechanism, where sucrose is transformed into heavier sugars, such as raffinose and stachyose, in the intermediary-type companion cells bordering the sieve elements in the minor veins of the phloem. Keeping the heavier sugars from diffusing back requires that the plasmodesmata connecting the bundle sheath with the intermediary cell act as extremely precise filters, which are able to distinguish between molecules that differ by less than 20% in size. In our modeling, we take into account the coupled water and sugar movement across the relevant interfaces, without explicitly considering the chemical reactions transforming the sucrose into the heavier sugars. Based on the available data for plasmodesmata geometry, sugar concentrations, and flux rates, we conclude that this mechanism can in principle function, but that it requires pores of molecular sizes. Comparing with the somewhat uncertain experimental values for sugar export rates, we expect the pores to be only 5%-10% larger than the hydraulic radius of the sucrose molecules. We find that the water flow through the plasmodesmata, which has not been quantified before, contributes only 10%-20% to the sucrose flux into the intermediary cells, while the main part is transported by diffusion. On the other hand, the subsequent sugar translocation into the sieve elements would very likely be carried predominantly by bulk water flow through the plasmodesmata. Thus, in contrast to apoplasmic loaders, all the necessary water for phloem translocation would be supplied in this way with no need for additional water uptake across the plasma membranes of the phloem.

A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

2017-12-01

Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons". Managers may feel more confident to utilize such models to predict flows in fully ungauged areas.

A gain-loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage-wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courdent, Vianney; Grum, Morten; Munk-Nielsen, Thomas; Mikkelsen, Peter S.

2017-05-01

Precipitation is the cause of major perturbation to the flow in urban drainage and wastewater systems. Flow forecasts, generated by coupling rainfall predictions with a hydrologic runoff model, can potentially be used to optimize the operation of integrated urban drainage-wastewater systems (IUDWSs) during both wet and dry weather periods. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have significantly improved in recent years, having increased their spatial and temporal resolution. Finer resolution NWP are suitable for urban-catchment-scale applications, providing longer lead time than radar extrapolation. However, forecasts are inevitably uncertain, and fine resolution is especially challenging for NWP. This uncertainty is commonly addressed in meteorology with ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). Handling uncertainty is challenging for decision makers and hence tools are necessary to provide insight on ensemble forecast usage and to support the rationality of decisions (i.e. forecasts are uncertain and therefore errors will be made; decision makers need tools to justify their choices, demonstrating that these choices are beneficial in the long run). This study presents an economic framework to support the decision-making process by providing information on when acting on the forecast is beneficial and how to handle the EPS. The relative economic value (REV) approach associates economic values with the potential outcomes and determines the preferential use of the EPS forecast. The envelope curve of the REV diagram combines the results from each probability forecast to provide the highest relative economic value for a given gain-loss ratio. This approach is traditionally used at larger scales to assess mitigation measures for adverse events (i.e. the actions are taken when events are forecast). The specificity of this study is to optimize the energy consumption in IUDWS during low-flow periods by exploiting the electrical smart grid market (i.e. the actions are taken when no events are forecast). Furthermore, the results demonstrate the benefit of NWP neighbourhood post-processing methods to enhance the forecast skill and increase the range of beneficial uses.

The Widespread Distribution of Komatiitic Tuffs in the 3.3 Ga Weltevreden Formation, Barberton Greenstone Belt, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M. E.; Lowe, D. R.; Byerly, G. R.

2007-12-01

The 3.5-3.2 Ga Barberton greenstone belt is a heavily deformed, 10-15 km thick succession of volcanic and sedimentary rocks representing one of the best preserved Paleoarchean supracrustal sequences known. It consists of the basal volcanic-dominated Onverwacht Group and the overlying sedimentary-dominated Fig Tree and Moodies Groups. Major volcanic rocks in the BGB include komatiites, tholeiitic basalts, and dacites. Although flow rocks and fragmental deposits have been identified representing all extrusive magma types, the abundance of komatiitic volcaniclastic units is remarkable considering the mechanical difficulties in explosively erupting low viscosity ultramafic lava. In the Onverwacht Group, most komatiitic tuffs contain 85-95 wt% SiO2, due to early silicification, and very low concentrations of most other elements, making original compositions somewhat uncertain. However, in the northernmost part of the BGB, north of the Inyoka Fault, the ~ 3.3 Ga Weltevreden Formation is composed largely of komatiitic flow rocks, tuffs, layered ultramafic complexes, and subordinate black and banded cherts. Previous studies have established the extrusive nature of the komatiites, but there are also many thick interlayered slaty units, previously interpreted as sheared flow rocks, which show cross-bedding, soft-sediment deformation, and other features indicating an alternate derivation. These units range from 2 to 80 m thick and may represent 10% or more of the overall stratigraphy of the Weltevreden Formation. They are characterized by low-temperature serpentinization that has commonly preserved original elemental abundances, enabling a more precise determination of primary komatiitic liquid composition. These rocks are magnesium rich, with MgO ranging from 23 to 36 wt%, and high Ni (~1500 ppm) and Cr (~2600 ppm) contents typical of komatiites. Several possible mechanisms could have produced these rocks, including (1) erosion and transport of pre-existing komatiitic flow rock, (2) volcanic base surges, (3) current reworking of fall-deposited pyroclastic material, and (4) remobilization of hyaloclastitic debris. The abundance of fine-grained sediments and of flat- and cross-laminated beds, the paucity of cr-spinels, and komatiitic immobile element ratios suggest that most of these high-Mg beds formed by minor reworking of komatiitic pyroclastic ash in a subaqueous environment.

Recharge and Topographical Controls on Groundwater Circulation in Shallow Crystalline Rock Aquifers revealed by CFC-based Age Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolbe, T.; Abbott, B. W.; Marçais, J.; Thomas, Z.; Aquilina, L.; Labasque, T.; Pinay, G.; De Dreuzy, J. R.

2016-12-01

Groundwater transit time and flow path are key factors controlling nitrogen retention and removal capacity at the catchment scale (Abbott et al., 2016), but the relative importance of hydrogeological and topographical factors in determining these parameters remains uncertain (Kolbe et al., 2016). To address this unknown, we used numerical modelling techniques calibrated with CFC groundwater age data to quantify transit time and flow path in an unconfined aquifer in Brittany, France. We assessed the relative importance of parameters (aquifer depth, porosity, arrangement of geological layers, and permeability profile), hydrology (recharge rate), and topography in determining characteristic flow distances (Leray et al., 2016). We found that groundwater flow was highly local (mean travel distance of 350 m) but also relatively old (mean CFC age of 40 years). Sensitivity analysis revealed that groundwater travel distances were not sensitive to geological parameters within the constraints of the CFC age data. However, circulation was sensitive to topography in lowland areas where the groundwater table was close to the land surface, and to recharge rate in upland areas where water input modulated the free surface of the aquifer. We quantified these differences with a local groundwater ratio (rGW-LOCAL) defined as the mean groundwater travel distance divided by the equivalent surface distance water would have traveled along the land surface. Lowland rGW-LOCAL was near 1, indicating primarily topographic controls. Upland rGW-LOCALwas 1.6, meaning the groundwater recharge area was substantially larger than the topographically-defined catchment. This ratio was applied to other catchments in Brittany to test its relevance in comparing controls on groundwater circulation within and among catchments. REFERENCES Abbott et al., 2016, Using multi-tracer inference to move beyond single-catchment ecohydrology. Earth-Science Reviews. Kolbe et al., 2016, Coupling 3D groundwater modeling with CFC-based age dating to classify local groundwater circulation in an unconfined crystalline aquifer. J. Hydrol. Leray et al., 2016, Residence time distributions for hydrologic systems: Mechanistic foundations and steady-state analytical solutions. J. Hydrol.

A new method for calculating ecological flow: Distribution flow method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Guangming; Yi, Ran; Chang, Jianbo; Shu, Caiwen; Yin, Zhi; Han, Shasha; Feng, Zhiyong; Lyu, Yiwei

2018-04-01

A distribution flow method (DFM) and its ecological flow index and evaluation grade standard are proposed to study the ecological flow of rivers based on broadening kernel density estimation. The proposed DFM and its ecological flow index and evaluation grade standard are applied into the calculation of ecological flow in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and compared with traditional calculation method of hydrological ecological flow, method of flow evaluation, and calculation result of fish ecological flow. Results show that the DFM considers the intra- and inter-annual variations in natural runoff, thereby reducing the influence of extreme flow and uneven flow distributions during the year. This method also satisfies the actual runoff demand of river ecosystems, demonstrates superiority over the traditional hydrological methods, and shows a high space-time applicability and application value.

Methods for the determination of skeletal muscle blood flow: development, strengths and limitations.

PubMed

Gliemann, Lasse; Mortensen, Stefan P; Hellsten, Ylva

2018-06-01

Since the first measurements of limb blood flow at rest and during nerve stimulation were conducted in the late 1800s, a number of methods have been developed for the determination of limb and skeletal muscle blood flow in humans. The methods, which have been applied in the study of aspects such as blood flow regulation, oxygen uptake and metabolism, differ in terms of strengths and degree of limitations but most have advantages for specific settings. The purpose of this review is to describe the origin and the basic principles of the methods, important aspects and requirements of the procedures. One of the earliest methods, venous occlusion plethysmography, is a noninvasive method which still is extensively used and which provides similar values as other more direct blood flow methods such as ultrasound Doppler. The constant infusion thermodilution method remains the most appropriate for the determination of blood flow during maximal exercise. For resting blood flow and light-to-moderate exercise, the non-invasive ultrasound Doppler methodology, if handled by a skilled operator, is recommendable. Positron emission tomography with radiolabeled water is an advanced method which requires highly sophisticated equipment and allows for the determination of muscle-specific blood flow, regional blood flows and estimate of blood flow heterogeneity within a muscle. Finally, the contrast-enhanced ultrasound method holds promise for assessment of muscle-specific blood flow, but the interpretation of the data obtained remains uncertain. Currently lacking is high-resolution methods for continuous visualization and monitoring of the skeletal muscle microcirculation in humans.

The distributions of Chinese yak breeds in response to climate change over the past 50 years.

PubMed

Wu, Jianguo

2016-07-01

The effects of prior climate change on yak breed distributions are uncertain. Here, we measured changes in the distributions of 12 yak breeds over the past 50 years in China and examined whether the changes could be attributed to climate change. Long-term records of yak breed distribution, grey relational analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of several yak breeds have changed in multiple directions, mainly shifting northward or westward, and most of these changes are related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past years, the suitable range and the distribution centers of certain yak breeds have changed with fluctuation and have mainly shifted northward, eastward or southward. The consistency of observed versus predicted changes in distribution boundaries or distribution centers is higher for certain yak breeds. Changes in the eastern distribution boundary of two yak breeds over the past 50 years can be attributed to climate change. © 2015 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Computational modeling of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) in obesity: Impact of head fat and dose guidelines☆

PubMed Central

Truong, Dennis Q.; Magerowski, Greta; Blackburn, George L.; Bikson, Marom; Alonso-Alonso, Miguel

2013-01-01

Recent studies show that acute neuromodulation of the prefrontal cortex with transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) can decrease food craving, attentional bias to food, and actual food intake. These data suggest potential clinical applications for tDCS in the field of obesity. However, optimal stimulation parameters in obese individuals are uncertain. One fundamental concern is whether a thick, low-conductivity layer of subcutaneous fat around the head can affect current density distribution and require dose adjustments during tDCS administration. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of head fat on the distribution of current during tDCS and evaluate whether dosing standards for tDCS developed for adult individuals in general are adequate for the obese population. We used MRI-derived high-resolution computational models that delineated fat layers in five human heads from subjects with body mass index (BMI) ranging from “normal-lean” to “super-obese” (20.9 to 53.5 kg/m2). Data derived from these simulations suggest that head fat influences tDCS current density across the brain, but its relative contribution is small when other components of head anatomy are added. Current density variability between subjects does not appear to have a direct and/or simple link to BMI. These results indicate that guidelines for the use of tDCS can be extrapolated to obese subjects without sacrificing efficacy and/or treatment safety; the recommended standard parameters can lead to the delivery of adequate current flow to induce neuromodulation of brain activity in the obese population. PMID:24159560

Interplay between geometry and flow distribution in an airway tree.

PubMed

Mauroy, B; Filoche, M; Andrade, J S; Sapoval, B

2003-04-11

Uniform flow distribution in a symmetric volume can be realized through a symmetric branched tree. It is shown here, however, by 3D numerical simulation of the Navier-Stokes equations, that the flow partitioning can be highly sensitive to deviations from exact symmetry if inertial effects are present. The flow asymmetry is quantified and found to depend on the Reynolds number. Moreover, for a given Reynolds number, we show that the flow distribution depends on the aspect ratio of the branching elements as well as their angular arrangement. Our results indicate that physiological variability should be severely restricted in order to ensure adequate fluid distribution through a tree.

Effects of composition of grains of debris flow on its impact force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, jinbo; Hu, Kaiheng; Cui, Peng

2017-04-01

Debris flows compose of solid material with broad size distribution from fine sand to boulders. Impact force imposed by debris flows is a very important issue for protection engineering design and strongly influenced by their grain composition. However, this issue has not been studied in depth and the effects of grain composition not been considered in the calculation of the impact force. In this present study, the small-scale flume experiments with five kinds of compositions of grains for debris flow were carried out to study the effect of the composition of grains of debris flow on its impact force. The results show that the impact force of debris flow increases with the grain size, the hydrodynamic pressure of debris flow is calibrated based on the normalization parameter dmax/d50, in which dmax is the maximum size and d50 is the median size. Furthermore, a log-logistic statistic distribution could be used to describe the distribution of magnitude of impact force of debris flow, where the mean and the variance of the present distribution increase with grain size. This distribution proposed in the present study could be used to the reliability analysis of structures impacted by debris flow.

A benders decomposition approach to multiarea stochastic distributed utility planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, Susan Ann

Until recently, small, modular generation and storage options---distributed resources (DRs)---have been installed principally in areas too remote for economic power grid connection and sensitive applications requiring backup capacity. Recent regulatory changes and DR advances, however, have lead utilities to reconsider the role of DRs. To a utility facing distribution capacity bottlenecks or uncertain load growth, DRs can be particularly valuable since they can be dispersed throughout the system and constructed relatively quickly. DR value is determined by comparing its costs to avoided central generation expenses (i.e., marginal costs) and distribution investments. This requires a comprehensive central and local planning and production model, since central system marginal costs result from system interactions over space and time. This dissertation develops and applies an iterative generalized Benders decomposition approach to coordinate models for optimal DR evaluation. Three coordinated models exchange investment, net power demand, and avoided cost information to minimize overall expansion costs. Local investment and production decisions are made by a local mixed integer linear program. Central system investment decisions are made by a LP, and production costs are estimated by a stochastic multi-area production costing model with Kirchhoff's Voltage and Current Law constraints. The nested decomposition is a new and unique method for distributed utility planning that partitions the variables twice to separate local and central investment and production variables, and provides upper and lower bounds on expected expansion costs. Kirchhoff's Voltage Law imposes nonlinear, nonconvex constraints that preclude use of LP if transmission capacity is available in a looped transmission system. This dissertation develops KVL constraint approximations that permit the nested decomposition to consider new transmission resources, while maintaining linearity in the three individual models. These constraints are presented as a heuristic for the given examples; future research will investigate conditions for convergence. A ten-year multi-area example demonstrates the decomposition approach and suggests the ability of DRs and new transmission to modify capacity additions and production costs by changing demand and power flows. Results demonstrate that DR and new transmission options may lead to greater capacity additions, but resulting production cost savings more than offset extra capacity costs.

26 CFR 1.707-4 - Disguised sales of property to partnership; special rules applicable to guaranteed payments...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

...; special rules applicable to guaranteed payments, preferred returns, operating cash flow distributions, and... payments, preferred returns, operating cash flow distributions, and reimbursements of preformation... distribution of partnership cash flow to a partner with respect to capital contributed to the partnership by...

26 CFR 1.707-4 - Disguised sales of property to partnership; special rules applicable to guaranteed payments...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

...; special rules applicable to guaranteed payments, preferred returns, operating cash flow distributions, and... payments, preferred returns, operating cash flow distributions, and reimbursements of preformation... distribution of partnership cash flow to a partner with respect to capital contributed to the partnership by...

26 CFR 1.707-4 - Disguised sales of property to partnership; special rules applicable to guaranteed payments...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

...; special rules applicable to guaranteed payments, preferred returns, operating cash flow distributions, and... payments, preferred returns, operating cash flow distributions, and reimbursements of preformation... distribution of partnership cash flow to a partner with respect to capital contributed to the partnership by...

17 CFR 229.1121 - (Item 1121) Distribution and pool performance information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... and actual distribution dates for the distribution period. (2) Cash flows received and the sources... shortfalls or carryovers. (iv) The amount of excess cash flow or excess spread and the disposition of excess cash flow. (4) Beginning and ending principal balances of the asset-backed securities. (5) Interest...

17 CFR 229.1121 - (Item 1121) Distribution and pool performance information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... and actual distribution dates for the distribution period. (2) Cash flows received and the sources... shortfalls or carryovers. (iv) The amount of excess cash flow or excess spread and the disposition of excess cash flow. (4) Beginning and ending principal balances of the asset-backed securities. (5) Interest...

17 CFR 229.1121 - (Item 1121) Distribution and pool performance information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... and actual distribution dates for the distribution period. (2) Cash flows received and the sources... shortfalls or carryovers. (iv) The amount of excess cash flow or excess spread and the disposition of excess cash flow. (4) Beginning and ending principal balances of the asset-backed securities. (5) Interest...

17 CFR 229.1121 - (Item 1121) Distribution and pool performance information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... and actual distribution dates for the distribution period. (2) Cash flows received and the sources... shortfalls or carryovers. (iv) The amount of excess cash flow or excess spread and the disposition of excess cash flow. (4) Beginning and ending principal balances of the asset-backed securities. (5) Interest...

26 CFR 1.707-4 - Disguised sales of property to partnership; special rules applicable to guaranteed payments...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

...; special rules applicable to guaranteed payments, preferred returns, operating cash flow distributions, and... payments, preferred returns, operating cash flow distributions, and reimbursements of preformation... distribution of partnership cash flow to a partner with respect to capital contributed to the partnership by...

Regional reliability of quantitative signal targeting with alternating radiofrequency (STAR) labeling of arterial regions (QUASAR).

PubMed

Tatewaki, Yasuko; Higano, Shuichi; Taki, Yasuyuki; Thyreau, Benjamin; Murata, Takaki; Mugikura, Shunji; Ito, Daisuke; Takase, Kei; Takahashi, Shoki

2014-01-01

Quantitative signal targeting with alternating radiofrequency labeling of arterial regions (QUASAR) is a recent spin labeling technique that could improve the reliability of brain perfusion measurements. Although it is considered reliable for measuring gray matter as a whole, it has never been evaluated regionally. Here we assessed this regional reliability. Using a 3-Tesla Philips Achieva whole-body system, we scanned four times 10 healthy volunteers, in two sessions 2 weeks apart, to obtain QUASAR images. We computed perfusion images and ran a voxel-based analysis within all brain structures. We also calculated mean regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) within regions of interest configured for each arterial territory distribution. The mean CBF over whole gray matter was 37.74 with intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of .70. In white matter, it was 13.94 with an ICC of .30. Voxel-wise ICC and coefficient-of-variation maps showed relatively lower reliability in watershed areas and white matter especially in deeper white matter. The absolute mean rCBF values were consistent with the ones reported from PET, as was the relatively low variability in different feeding arteries. Thus, QUASAR reliability for regional perfusion is high within gray matter, but uncertain within white matter. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Neuroimaging published by the American Society of Neuroimaging.

Regional Reliability of Quantitative Signal Targeting with Alternating Radiofrequency (STAR) Labeling of Arterial Regions (QUASAR)

PubMed Central

Tatewaki, Yasuko; Higano, Shuichi; Taki, Yasuyuki; Thyreau, Benjamin; Murata, Takaki; Mugikura, Shunji; Ito, Daisuke; Takase, Kei; Takahashi, Shoki

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Quantitative signal targeting with alternating radiofrequency labeling of arterial regions (QUASAR) is a recent spin labeling technique that could improve the reliability of brain perfusion measurements. Although it is considered reliable for measuring gray matter as a whole, it has never been evaluated regionally. Here we assessed this regional reliability. METHODS Using a 3-Tesla Philips Achieva whole-body system, we scanned four times 10 healthy volunteers, in two sessions 2 weeks apart, to obtain QUASAR images. We computed perfusion images and ran a voxel-based analysis within all brain structures. We also calculated mean regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) within regions of interest configured for each arterial territory distribution. RESULTS The mean CBF over whole gray matter was 37.74 with intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of .70. In white matter, it was 13.94 with an ICC of .30. Voxel-wise ICC and coefficient-of-variation maps showed relatively lower reliability in watershed areas and white matter especially in deeper white matter. The absolute mean rCBF values were consistent with the ones reported from PET, as was the relatively low variability in different feeding arteries. CONCLUSIONS Thus, QUASAR reliability for regional perfusion is high within gray matter, but uncertain within white matter. PMID:25370338

Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus

PubMed Central

Brady, Oliver J.; Gething, Peter W.; Bhatt, Samir; Messina, Jane P.; Brownstein, John S.; Hoen, Anne G.; Moyes, Catherine L.; Farlow, Andrew W.; Scott, Thomas W.; Hay, Simon I.

2012-01-01

Background Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. Methods/Principal Findings A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. Conclusion The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work. PMID:22880140

Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.

PubMed

Brady, Oliver J; Gething, Peter W; Bhatt, Samir; Messina, Jane P; Brownstein, John S; Hoen, Anne G; Moyes, Catherine L; Farlow, Andrew W; Scott, Thomas W; Hay, Simon I

2012-01-01

Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.

Application of TREECS Modeling System to Strontium-90 for Borschi Watershed near Chernobyl, Ukraine.

PubMed

Johnson, Billy E; Dortch, Mark S

2014-05-01

The Training Range Environmental Evaluation and Characterization System (TREECS™) (http://el.erdc.usace.army.mil/treecs/) is being developed by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) for the U.S. Army to forecast the fate of munitions constituents (MC) (such as high explosives (HE) and metals) found on firing/training ranges, as well as those subsequently transported to surface water and groundwater. The overall purpose of TREECS™ is to provide environmental specialists with tools to assess the potential for MC migration into surface water and groundwater systems and to assess range management strategies to ensure protection of human health and the environment. The multimedia fate/transport models within TREECS™ are mathematical models of reduced form (e.g., reduced dimensionality) that allow rapid application with less input data requirements compared with more complicated models. Although TREECS™ was developed for the fate of MC from military ranges, it has general applicability to many other situations requiring prediction of contaminant (including radionuclide) fate in multi-media environmental systems. TREECS™ was applied to the Borschi watershed near the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine. At this site, TREECS™ demonstrated its use as a modeling tool to predict the fate of strontium 90 ((90)Sr). The most sensitive and uncertain input for this application was the soil-water partitioning distribution coefficient (Kd) for (90)Sr. The TREECS™ soil model provided reasonable estimates of the surface water export flux of (90)Sr from the Borschi watershed when using a Kd for (90)Sr of 200 L/kg. The computed export for the year 2000 was 0.18% of the watershed inventory of (90)Sr compared to the estimated export flux of 0.14% based on field data collected during 1999-2001. The model indicated that assumptions regarding the form of the inventory, whether dissolved or in solid phase form, did not appreciably affect export rates. Also, the percentage of non-exchangeable adsorbed (90)Sr, which is uncertain and affects the amount of (90)Sr available for export, was fixed at 20% based on field data measurements. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was conducted treating Kd as an uncertain input variable with a range of 100-300 L/kg. This analysis resulted in a range of 0.13-0.27% of inventory exported to surface water compared to 0.14% based on measured field data. Based on this model application, it was concluded that the export of (90)Sr from the Borschi watershed to surface water is predominantly a result of soil pore water containing dissolved (90)Sr being diverted to surface waters that eventually flow out of the watershed. The percentage of non-exchangeable adsorbed (90)Sr and the soil-water Kd are the two most sensitive and uncertain factors affecting the amount of export. The 200-year projections of the model showed an exponential decline in (90)Sr export fluxes from the watershed that should drop by a factor of 10 by the year 2100. This presentation will focus on TREECS capabilities and the case study done for the Borschi Watershed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Multichannel/Multisensor Signal Processing In Uncertain Environments With Application To Multitarget Tracking.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-05-22

NUMBER PR-98-1 T. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Office of Naval Research Ballston Center Tower One One North Quincy...unlimited. 12 b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 19980601 082 13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words) This research project is concerned with two distinct aspects of analysis...Environments With Application To Multitarget Tracking This research project is concerned with two distinct aspects of analysis and processing of sig

Validation of computational fluid dynamics-based analysis to evaluate hemodynamic significance of access stenosis.

PubMed

Hoganson, David M; Hinkel, Cameron J; Chen, Xiaomin; Agarwal, Ramesh K; Shenoy, Surendra

2014-01-01

Stenosis in a vascular access circuit is the predominant cause of access dysfunction. Hemodynamic significance of a stenosis identified by angiography in an access circuit is uncertain. This study utilizes computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to model flow through arteriovenous fistula to predict the functional significance of stenosis in vascular access circuits. Three-dimensional models of fistulas were created with a range of clinically relevant stenoses using SolidWorks. Stenoses diameters ranged from 1.0 to 3.0 mm and lengths from 5 to 60 mm within a fistula diameter of 7 mm. CFD analyses were performed using a blood model over a range of blood pressures. Eight patient-specific stenoses were also modeled and analyzed with CFD and the resulting blood flow calculations were validated by comparison with brachial artery flow measured by duplex ultrasound. Predicted flow rates were derived from CFD analysis of a range of stenoses. These stenoses were modeled by CFD and correlated with the ultrasound measured flow rate through the fistula of eight patients. The calculated flow rate using CFD correlated within 20% of ultrasound measured flow for five of eight patients. The mean difference was 17.2% (ranged from 1.3% to 30.1%). CFD analysis-generated flow rate tables provide valuable information to assess the functional significance of stenosis detected during imaging studies. The CFD study can help in determining the clinical relevance of a stenosis in access dysfunction and guide the need for intervention.

Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-09-01

Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

Toward reassessing data-deficient species.

PubMed

Bland, Lucie M; Bielby, Jon; Kearney, Stephen; Orme, C David L; Watson, James E M; Collen, Ben

2017-06-01

One in 6 species (13,465 species) on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is classified as data deficient due to lack of information on their taxonomy, population status, or impact of threats. Despite the chance that many are at high risk of extinction, data-deficient species are typically excluded from global and local conservation priorities, as well as funding schemes. The number of data-deficient species will greatly increase as the IUCN Red List becomes more inclusive of poorly known and speciose groups. A strategic approach is urgently needed to enhance the conservation value of data-deficient assessments. To develop this, we reviewed 2879 data-deficient assessments in 6 animal groups and identified 8 main justifications for assigning data-deficient status (type series, few records, old records, uncertain provenance, uncertain population status or distribution, uncertain threats, taxonomic uncertainty, and new species). Assigning a consistent set of justification tags (i.e., consistent assignment to assessment justifications) to species classified as data deficient is a simple way to achieve more strategic assessments. Such tags would clarify the causes of data deficiency; facilitate the prediction of extinction risk; facilitate comparisons of data deficiency among taxonomic groups; and help prioritize species for reassessment. With renewed efforts, it could be straightforward to prevent thousands of data-deficient species slipping unnoticed toward extinction. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Impact of Data Assimilation on Cost-Accuracy Tradeoff in Multi-Fidelity Models at the Example of an Infiltration Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinsbeck, Michael; Tartakovsky, Daniel

2015-04-01

Infiltration into top soil can be described by alternative models with different degrees of fidelity: Richards equation and the Green-Ampt model. These models typically contain uncertain parameters and forcings, rendering predictions of the state variables uncertain as well. Within the probabilistic framework, solutions of these models are given in terms of their probability density functions (PDFs) that, in the presence of data, can be treated as prior distributions. The assimilation of soil moisture data into model predictions, e.g., via a Bayesian updating of solution PDFs, poses a question of model selection: Given a significant difference in computational cost, is a lower-fidelity model preferable to its higher-fidelity counter-part? We investigate this question in the context of heterogeneous porous media, whose hydraulic properties are uncertain. While low-fidelity (reduced-complexity) models introduce a model error, their moderate computational cost makes it possible to generate more realizations, which reduces the (e.g., Monte Carlo) sampling or stochastic error. The ratio between these two errors determines the model with the smallest total error. We found assimilation of measurements of a quantity of interest (the soil moisture content, in our example) to decrease the model error, increasing the probability that the predictive accuracy of a reduced-complexity model does not fall below that of its higher-fidelity counterpart.

A probabilistic asteroid impact risk model: assessment of sub-300 m impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

2017-06-01

A comprehensive asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain input parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions for objects up to 300 m in diameter. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data have little effect on the metrics of interest.

Distributed Synchronization Control of Multiagent Systems With Unknown Nonlinearities.

PubMed

Su, Shize; Lin, Zongli; Garcia, Alfredo

2016-01-01

This paper revisits the distributed adaptive control problem for synchronization of multiagent systems where the dynamics of the agents are nonlinear, nonidentical, unknown, and subject to external disturbances. Two communication topologies, represented, respectively, by a fixed strongly-connected directed graph and by a switching connected undirected graph, are considered. Under both of these communication topologies, we use distributed neural networks to approximate the uncertain dynamics. Decentralized adaptive control protocols are then constructed to solve the cooperative tracker problem, the problem of synchronization of all follower agents to a leader agent. In particular, we show that, under the proposed decentralized control protocols, the synchronization errors are ultimately bounded, and their ultimate bounds can be reduced arbitrarily by choosing the control parameter appropriately. Simulation study verifies the effectiveness of our proposed protocols.

Two-Dimensional Automatic Measurement for Nozzle Flow Distribution Using Improved Ultrasonic Sensor

PubMed Central

Zhai, Changyuan; Zhao, Chunjiang; Wang, Xiu; Wang, Ning; Zou, Wei; Li, Wei

2015-01-01

Spray deposition and distribution are affected by many factors, one of which is nozzle flow distribution. A two-dimensional automatic measurement system, which consisted of a conveying unit, a system control unit, an ultrasonic sensor, and a deposition collecting dish, was designed and developed. The system could precisely move an ultrasonic sensor above a pesticide deposition collecting dish to measure the nozzle flow distribution. A sensor sleeve with a PVC tube was designed for the ultrasonic sensor to limit its beam angle in order to measure the liquid level in the small troughs. System performance tests were conducted to verify the designed functions and measurement accuracy. A commercial spray nozzle was also used to measure its flow distribution. The test results showed that the relative error on volume measurement was less than 7.27% when the liquid volume was 2 mL in trough, while the error was less than 4.52% when the liquid volume was 4 mL or more. The developed system was also used to evaluate the flow distribution of a commercial nozzle. It was able to provide the shape and the spraying width of the flow distribution accurately. PMID:26501288

Redox flow batteries with serpentine flow fields: Distributions of electrolyte flow reactant penetration into the porous carbon electrodes and effects on performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Xinyou; Prahl, Joseph M.; Alexander, J. Iwan D.; Savinell, Robert F.

2018-04-01

Redox flow batteries with flow field designs have been demonstrated to boost their capacities to deliver high current density and power density in medium and large-scale energy storage applications. Nevertheless, the fundamental mechanisms involved with improved current density in flow batteries with serpentine flow field designs have been not fully understood. Here we report a three-dimensional model of a serpentine flow field over a porous carbon electrode to examine the distributions of pressure driven electrolyte flow penetrations into the porous carbon electrodes. We also estimate the maximum current densities associated with stoichiometric availability of electrolyte reactant flow penetrations through the porous carbon electrodes. The results predict reasonably well observed experimental data without using any adjustable parameters. This fundamental work on electrolyte flow distributions of limiting reactant availability will contribute to a better understanding of limits on electrochemical performance in flow batteries with serpentine flow field designs and should be helpful to optimizing flow batteries.

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Erik A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Jacobsen, Katrin E.

2017-12-27

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02.Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions.

Comparison of Deterministic and Probabilistic Radial Distribution Systems Load Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Atma Ram; Kumar, Ashwani

2017-12-01

Distribution system network today is facing the challenge of meeting increased load demands from the industrial, commercial and residential sectors. The pattern of load is highly dependent on consumer behavior and temporal factors such as season of the year, day of the week or time of the day. For deterministic radial distribution load flow studies load is taken as constant. But, load varies continually with a high degree of uncertainty. So, there is a need to model probable realistic load. Monte-Carlo Simulation is used to model the probable realistic load by generating random values of active and reactive power load from the mean and standard deviation of the load and for solving a Deterministic Radial Load Flow with these values. The probabilistic solution is reconstructed from deterministic data obtained for each simulation. The main contribution of the work is: Finding impact of probable realistic ZIP load modeling on balanced radial distribution load flow. Finding impact of probable realistic ZIP load modeling on unbalanced radial distribution load flow. Compare the voltage profile and losses with probable realistic ZIP load modeling for balanced and unbalanced radial distribution load flow.

Vorticity Distributions in Unsteady Flow Separation

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-11-08

a significant result, which was presented at the Unsteady Separated Flow Workshop at the Air Force Academy last July, and which is ready for...i~~A’I C amsi4 61102F 2307 A2 11 Ti-,LE (Incluce Security Claw fication) Vorticity Distributions in Unsteady Flow Separation 12 PERSONAL AUTHOR(S...LSIIAINO HSPG / UNCLASSIFIED Report MEUA-IT-88-2 VORTICITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN UNSTEADY FLOW SEPARATION Frederick S. Sherman Department of Mechanical

The use of broken power-laws to describe the distributions of daily flow above the mean annual flow across the conterminous U.S.

Treesearch

Catalina Segura; Davide Lazzati; Arumugam Sankarasubramanian

2013-01-01

A recent study employed a broken power-law (BPL) distribution for understanding the scaling frequency of bankfull discharge in snowmelt-dominated basins. This study, grounded from those findings, investigated the ability of a BPL function to describe the distribution of daily flows above the mean annual flow in 1217 sites across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The...

Distributed Adaptive Fuzzy Control for Nonlinear Multiagent Systems Via Sliding Mode Observers.

PubMed

Shen, Qikun; Shi, Peng; Shi, Yan

2016-12-01

In this paper, the problem of distributed adaptive fuzzy control is investigated for high-order uncertain nonlinear multiagent systems on directed graph with a fixed topology. It is assumed that only the outputs of each follower and its neighbors are available in the design of its distributed controllers. Equivalent output injection sliding mode observers are proposed for each follower to estimate the states of itself and its neighbors, and an observer-based distributed adaptive controller is designed for each follower to guarantee that it asymptotically synchronizes to a leader with tracking errors being semi-globally uniform ultimate bounded, in which fuzzy logic systems are utilized to approximate unknown functions. Based on algebraic graph theory and Lyapunov function approach, using Filippov-framework, the closed-loop system stability analysis is conducted. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and potential of the developed design techniques.

Distributed Adaptive Finite-Time Approach for Formation-Containment Control of Networked Nonlinear Systems Under Directed Topology.

PubMed

Wang, Yujuan; Song, Yongduan; Ren, Wei

2017-07-06

This paper presents a distributed adaptive finite-time control solution to the formation-containment problem for multiple networked systems with uncertain nonlinear dynamics and directed communication constraints. By integrating the special topology feature of the new constructed symmetrical matrix, the technical difficulty in finite-time formation-containment control arising from the asymmetrical Laplacian matrix under single-way directed communication is circumvented. Based upon fractional power feedback of the local error, an adaptive distributed control scheme is established to drive the leaders into the prespecified formation configuration in finite time. Meanwhile, a distributed adaptive control scheme, independent of the unavailable inputs of the leaders, is designed to keep the followers within a bounded distance from the moving leaders and then to make the followers enter the convex hull shaped by the formation of the leaders in finite time. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is confirmed by the simulation.

Direct Measurements of Interplanetary Dust Particles in the Vicinity of Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCracken, C. W.; Alexander, W. M.; Dubin, M.

1961-01-01

The direct measurements made by the Explorer VIII satellite provide the first sound basis for analyzing all available direct measurements of the distribution of interplanetary dust particles. The model average distribution curve established by such an analysis departs significantly from that predicted by the (uncertain) extrapolation of results from meteor observations. A consequence of this difference is that the daily accretion of interplanetary particulate matter by the earth is now considered to be mainly dust particles of the direct measurements range of particle size. Almost all the available direct measurements obtained with microphone systems on rockets, satellites, and spacecraft fit directly on the distribution curve defined by Explorer VIII data. The lack of reliable datum points departing significantly from the model average distribution curve means that available direct measurements show no discernible evidence of an appreciable geocentric concentration of interplanetary dust particles.

Investigating Flow Features Near Abrupt Topography in the Mariana Basin

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Investigating Flow Features Near Abrupt Topography in...waves generated by flow over topography and mesoscale eddies generated by flow past islands. Having identified the prime locations in the region for such

Phase-Field Simulation of Concentration and Temperature Distribution During Dendritic Growth in a Forced Liquid Metal Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Lifei; Zhang, Rong

2014-12-01

A phase-field model with convection is employed to investigate the effect of liquid flow on the dendritic structure formation of a Ni-Cu alloy during rapid solidification. Temperature and solute diffusion are significantly changed with induced liquid metal flow, and distribution changes of concentration and temperature are also analyzed and discussed. The solute segregation is affected due to the concentration diffusion layer thickness change caused by the liquid flow. The flow reduces the solute segregation in the upstream and leads to a fast dendrite growing, while solidifying in the downstream gets constrained with the large solute diffusion layer. Increasing flow velocity increases the asymmetry of dendrite morphology with much more suppressed growth in the downstream. The temperature distribution is also asymmetrical due to the non-uniform latent heat released during solidification coupling with heat diffusion changed by the liquid flow. Therefore, the forced liquid flow significantly affects the dendrite morphology, concentration, and temperature distributions in the solidifying microstructure.

Prediction of Tensile Behavior of UHSFRC Considering the Flow Field in the Placing Dominated by Shear Flow.

PubMed

Moon, Joon-Shik; Kang, Su-Tae

2018-01-26

Considering the case of fabricating a UHSFRC (ultra-high strength fiber-reinforced concrete) beam with the method of one end placing and self-flowing to the other end, it was intended to simulate the variation of the fiber orientation distribution according to the flow distance and the variation of the resultant tensile behaviors. Then the validity of the simulation approach was shown by comparing the simulated results with experimental ones. A three-point bending test with a notched beam was adopted for the experiment and a finite element analysis was performed to obtain the simulated results for the bending test considering the flow-dependent tensile behavior of the UHSFRC. From the simulation for the fiber orientation distribution according to the flow distance, it could be found that the major change in the fiber orientation distribution took place within a short flow distance and most of the fibers became nearly aligned to the flow direction. After some flow distance, there was a not-so-remarkable variation in the fiber orientation distribution that could influence the tensile behavior of the composite. For this flow region, the consistent flexural test results, regardless of flow distance, demonstrate the reliability of the simulation.

Global sensitivity analysis for the geostatistical characterization of a regional-scale sedimentary aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchi Janetti, Emanuela; Riva, Monica; Guadagnini, Alberto

2017-04-01

We perform a variance-based global sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of the uncertainty associated with (a) the spatial distribution of hydraulic parameters, e.g., hydraulic conductivity, and (b) the conceptual model adopted to describe the system on the characterization of a regional-scale aquifer. We do so in the context of inverse modeling of the groundwater flow system. The study aquifer lies within the provinces of Bergamo and Cremona (Italy) and covers a planar extent of approximately 785 km2. Analysis of available sedimentological information allows identifying a set of main geo-materials (facies/phases) which constitute the geological makeup of the subsurface system. We parameterize the conductivity field following two diverse conceptual schemes. The first one is based on the representation of the aquifer as a Composite Medium. In this conceptualization the system is composed by distinct (five, in our case) lithological units. Hydraulic properties (such as conductivity) in each unit are assumed to be uniform. The second approach assumes that the system can be modeled as a collection of media coexisting in space to form an Overlapping Continuum. A key point in this model is that each point in the domain represents a finite volume within which each of the (five) identified lithofacies can be found with a certain volumetric percentage. Groundwater flow is simulated with the numerical code MODFLOW-2005 for each of the adopted conceptual models. We then quantify the relative contribution of the considered uncertain parameters, including boundary conditions, to the total variability of the piezometric level recorded in a set of 40 monitoring wells by relying on the variance-based Sobol indices. The latter are derived numerically for the investigated settings through the use of a model-order reduction technique based on the polynomial chaos expansion approach.

The effect of pore-scale geometry and wettability on two-phase relative permeabilities within elementary cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchi Janetti, Emanuela; Riva, Monica; Guadagnini, Alberto

2017-04-01

We study the relative role of the complex pore space geometry and wettability of the solid matrix on the quantification of relative permeabilities characterizing steady state immiscible two-phase flow in porous media. We do so by considering elementary cells, which are typically employed in upscaling frameworks based on, e.g., homogenization or volume averaging. In this context one typically relies on the solution of pore-scale physics at a scale which is much smaller than that of an investigated porous system. Pressure-driven two-phase flow following simultaneous co-current injection of water and oil is numerically solved for a suite of regular and stochastically generated two-dimensional explicit elementary cells with fixed porosity and sharing main topological/morphological features. We show that relative permeabilities of the randomly generated elementary cells are significantly influenced by the formation of preferential percolation paths (principal pathways), giving rise to a strongly nonuniform distribution of fluid fluxes. These pathways are a result of the spatially variable resistance that the random pore structures exert on the fluid. The overall effect on relative permeabilities of the diverse organization of principal pathways, as driven by a given random realization at the scale of the unit cell, is significantly larger than that of the wettability of the host rock. In contrast to what can be observed for the random cells analyzed, relative permeabilities of regular cells display a clear trend with contact angle at the investigated scale. Our findings suggest the need to perform systematic upscaling studies in a stochastic context, to propagate the effects of uncertain pore space geometries to a probabilistic description of relative permeability curves at the continuum scale.

Flow and Temperature Distribution Evaluation on Sodium Heated Large-sized Straight Double-wall-tube Steam Generator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kisohara, Naoyuki; Moribe, Takeshi; Sakai, Takaaki

2006-07-01

The sodium heated steam generator (SG) being designed in the feasibility study on commercialized fast reactor cycle systems is a straight double-wall-tube type. The SG is large sized to reduce its manufacturing cost by economics of scale. This paper addresses the temperature and flow multi-dimensional distributions at steady state to obtain the prospect of the SG. Large-sized heat exchanger components are prone to have non-uniform flow and temperature distributions. These phenomena might lead to tube buckling or tube to tube-sheet junction failure in straight tube type SGs, owing to tubes thermal expansion difference. The flow adjustment devices installed in themore » SG are optimized to prevent these issues, and the temperature distribution properties are uncovered by analysis methods. The analysis model of the SG consists of two parts, a sodium inlet distribution plenum (the plenum) and a heat transfer tubes bundle region (the bundle). The flow and temperature distributions in the plenum and the bundle are evaluated by the three-dimensional code 'FLUENT' and the two dimensional thermal-hydraulic code 'MSG', respectively. The MSG code is particularly developed for sodium heated SGs in JAEA. These codes have revealed that the sodium flow is distributed uniformly by the flow adjustment devices, and that the lateral tube temperature distributions remain within the allowable temperature range for the structural integrity of the tubes and the tube to tube-sheet junctions. (authors)« less

Sum-of-squares of polynomials approach to nonlinear stability of fluid flows: an example of application

PubMed Central

Tutty, O.

2015-01-01

With the goal of providing the first example of application of a recently proposed method, thus demonstrating its ability to give results in principle, global stability of a version of the rotating Couette flow is examined. The flow depends on the Reynolds number and a parameter characterizing the magnitude of the Coriolis force. By converting the original Navier–Stokes equations to a finite-dimensional uncertain dynamical system using a partial Galerkin expansion, high-degree polynomial Lyapunov functionals were found by sum-of-squares of polynomials optimization. It is demonstrated that the proposed method allows obtaining the exact global stability limit for this flow in a range of values of the parameter characterizing the Coriolis force. Outside this range a lower bound for the global stability limit was obtained, which is still better than the energy stability limit. In the course of the study, several results meaningful in the context of the method used were also obtained. Overall, the results obtained demonstrate the applicability of the recently proposed approach to global stability of the fluid flows. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first case in which global stability of a fluid flow has been proved by a generic method for the value of a Reynolds number greater than that which could be achieved with the energy stability approach. PMID:26730219

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

PubMed

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

Polarization curve measurements combined with potential probe sensing for determining current density distribution in vanadium redox-flow batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Maik; Bredemeyer, Niels; Tenhumberg, Nils; Turek, Thomas

2016-03-01

Potential probes are applied to vanadium redox-flow batteries for determination of effective felt resistance and current density distribution. During the measurement of polarization curves in 100 cm2 cells with different carbon felt compression rates, alternating potential steps at cell voltages between 0.6 V and 2.0 V are applied. Polarization curves are recorded at different flow rates and states of charge of the battery. Increasing compression rates lead to lower effective felt resistances and a more uniform resistance distribution. Low flow rates at high or low state of charge result in non-linear current density distribution with high gradients, while high flow rates give rise to a nearly linear behavior.

Semi-empirical analysis of liquid fuel distribution downstream of a plain orifice injector under cross-stream air flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, M.-H.; Jiang, H.-K.; Chin, J.-S.

1982-04-01

An improved flat-fan spray model is used for the semi-empirical analysis of liquid fuel distribution downstream of a plain orifice injector under cross-stream air flow. The model assumes that, due to the aerodynamic force of the high-velocity cross air flow, the injected fuel immediately forms a flat-fan liquid sheet perpendicular to the cross flow. Once the droplets have been formed, the trajectories of individual droplets determine fuel distribution downstream. Comparison with test data shows that the proposed model accurately predicts liquid fuel distribution at any point downstream of a plain orifice injector under high-velocity, low-temperature uniform cross-stream air flow over a wide range of conditions.

Evaluation of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Particle Movement in Open Channel Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, E.; Tsai, C.

2014-12-01

It is important to develop a forecast model to predict the trajectory of sediment particles when extreme flow events occur. In extreme flow environments, the stochastic jump diffusion particle tracking model (SJD-PTM) can be used to model the movement of sediment particles in response to extreme events. This proposed SJD-PTM can be separated into three main parts — a drift motion, a turbulence term and a jump term due to random occurrences of extreme flow events. The study is intended to modify the jump term, which models the abrupt changes of particle position in the extreme flow environments. The frequency of extreme flow occurrences might change due to many uncertain factors such as climate change. The study attempts to use the concept of the logistic regression and the parameter of odds ratio, namely the trend magnitude to investigate the frequency change of extreme flow event occurrences and its impact on sediment particle movement. With the SJD-PTM, the ensemble mean and variance of particle trajectory can be quantified via simulations. The results show that by taking the effect of the trend magnitude into consideration, the particle position and its uncertainty may undergo a significant increase. Such findings will have many important implications to the environmental and hydraulic engineering design and planning. For instance, when the frequency of the occurrence of flow events with higher extremity increases, particles can travel further and faster downstream. It is observed that flow events with higher extremity can induce a higher degree of entrainment and particle resuspension, and consequently more significant bed and bank erosion.

Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawaii, 1913-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassiouni, Maoya; Oki, Delwyn S.

2013-01-01

This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai'i during the past century. Statistically significant long-term (1913-2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test) in low-streamflow and base-flow records. These long-term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22% in median streamflow and a decrease of 23% in median base flow between the periods 1913-1943 and 1943-2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai'i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long-term trends reflect region-wide changes in climatic and land-cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943-2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base-flow records than in high-streamflow, peak-flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate-change projections and watershed responses to changes.

Hawaiian lava flows in the third dimension: Identification and interpretation of pahoehoe and 'a'a distribution in the KP-1 and SOH-4 cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Melissa G.; Cashman, Katharine V.

2003-02-01

Hawaiian lava flows are classified as pahoehoe or 'a'a by their surface morphology. As surface morphology reflects flow emplacement conditions, the surface distribution of morphologic flow types has been used to study the evolution and eruptive history of basaltic volcanoes. We extend this analysis to the third dimension by determining the distribution of flow types in two deep drill cores, the Scientific Observation Hole-4 (SOH-4) core, drilled near Kilauea's East Rift Zone (ERZ), and the pilot hole (Kahi Puka-1 (KP-1)) for the Hawaiian Scientific Drilling Project (HSDP), drilled through distal flows from Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea. Flows are classified using both internal structures and groundmass textures, with the latter useful when identification based on mesoscopic flow features (e.g., surface morphology and vesicle content and distribution) is ambiguous. We then examine the temporal distribution of pahoehoe and 'a'a flows in proximal (SOH-4) and distal (KP-1) settings. Sequence analysis shows that the two flow types are not randomly distributed in either core but instead are strongly clustered. The proximal SOH-4 core is dominated by thin pahoehoe flows (˜60% by volume), consistent with the common occurrence of surface-fed pahoehoe flows in near-vent settings. The distal KP-1 core has a high proportion of 'a'a (˜58% by volume), although the proportion of pahoehoe and 'a'a varies dramatically throughout the Mauna Kea sequence. Thick inflated pahoehoe flows dominate when the drill site was near sea level, consistent with the numerous inflated pahoehoe fields on the current coastal plains of Kilauea and Mauna Loa. 'A'a flows are abundant when the site was far above sea level. As slope increases from the coastal plains to Mauna Kea's flank, this correlation may reflect the combined effect of long transport distances and increased slopes on flow emplacement. These results demonstrate that flow type and thickness variations in cores provide valuable information about both vent location and local site environment. Observed variations in flow type within the KP-1 core raise interesting questions about feedback between volcano evolution and flow morphology and suggest that flow type is an important variable in models of volcano growth and related models for lava flow hazard assessment.

Geographic and ecologic distributions of the Anopheles gambiae complex predicted using a genetic algorithm.

PubMed

Levine, Rebecca S; Peterson, A Townsend; Benedict, Mark Q

2004-02-01

The distribution of the Anopheles gambiae complex of malaria vectors in Africa is uncertain due to under-sampling of vast regions. We use ecologic niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of three members of the complex (A. gambiae, A. arabiensis, and A. quadriannulatus) and demonstrate the statistical significance of the models. Predictions correspond well to previous estimates, but provide detail regarding spatial discontinuities in the distribution of A. gambiae s.s. that are consistent with population genetic studies. Our predictions also identify large areas of Africa where the presence of A. arabiensis is predicted, but few specimens have been obtained, suggesting under-sampling of the species. Finally, we project models developed from African distribution data for the late 1900s into the past and to South America to determine retrospectively whether the deadly 1929 introduction of A. gambiae sensu lato into Brazil was more likely that of A. gambiae sensu stricto or A. arabiensis.

Does intolerance of uncertainty predict anticipatory startle responses to uncertain threat?

PubMed

Nelson, Brady D; Shankman, Stewart A

2011-08-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed to be an important maintaining factor in several anxiety disorders, including generalized anxiety disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and social phobia. While IU has been shown to predict subjective ratings and decision-making during uncertain/ambiguous situations, few studies have examined whether IU also predicts emotional responding to uncertain threat. The present study examined whether IU predicted aversive responding (startle and subjective ratings) during the anticipation of temporally uncertain shocks. Sixty-nine participants completed three experimental conditions during which they received: no shocks, temporally certain/predictable shocks, and temporally uncertain shocks. Results indicated that IU was negatively associated with startle during the uncertain threat condition in that those with higher IU had a smaller startle response. IU was also only related to startle during the uncertain (and not the certain/predictable) threat condition, suggesting that it was not predictive of general aversive responding, but specific to responses to uncertain aversiveness. Perceived control over anxiety-related events mediated the relation between IU and startle to uncertain threat, such that high IU led to lowered perceived control, which in turn led to a smaller startle response. We discuss several potential explanations for these findings, including the inhibitory qualities of IU. Overall, our results suggest that IU is associated with attenuated aversive responding to uncertain threat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

STAR FORMATION IN TURBULENT MOLECULAR CLOUDS WITH COLLIDING FLOW

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matsumoto, Tomoaki; Dobashi, Kazuhito; Shimoikura, Tomomi, E-mail: matsu@hosei.ac.jp

2015-03-10

Using self-gravitational hydrodynamical numerical simulations, we investigated the evolution of high-density turbulent molecular clouds swept by a colliding flow. The interaction of shock waves due to turbulence produces networks of thin filamentary clouds with a sub-parsec width. The colliding flow accumulates the filamentary clouds into a sheet cloud and promotes active star formation for initially high-density clouds. Clouds with a colliding flow exhibit a finer filamentary network than clouds without a colliding flow. The probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the density and column density can be fitted by lognormal functions for clouds without colliding flow. When the initial turbulence ismore » weak, the column density PDF has a power-law wing at high column densities. The colliding flow considerably deforms the PDF, such that the PDF exhibits a double peak. The stellar mass distributions reproduced here are consistent with the classical initial mass function with a power-law index of –1.35 when the initial clouds have a high density. The distribution of stellar velocities agrees with the gas velocity distribution, which can be fitted by Gaussian functions for clouds without colliding flow. For clouds with colliding flow, the velocity dispersion of gas tends to be larger than the stellar velocity dispersion. The signatures of colliding flows and turbulence appear in channel maps reconstructed from the simulation data. Clouds without colliding flow exhibit a cloud-scale velocity shear due to the turbulence. In contrast, clouds with colliding flow show a prominent anti-correlated distribution of thin filaments between the different velocity channels, suggesting collisions between the filamentary clouds.« less

New records of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) found in phytotelmata in Northern Argentina.

PubMed

Stein, Marina; Alvarez, Carla N; Alonso, Ana C; Bangher, DÉbora N; Willener, Juana A; Campos, RaÚl E

2018-03-20

The geographical distributions of Culex (Carrollia) secundus, Cx. (Microculex) davisi, Cx. (Phytotelmatomyia) castroi, Cx. (Phy.) renatoi, Lutzia (Lutzia) allostigma, Sabethes (Peytonulus) undosus, Sa. (Sabethoides) glaucodaemon, Toxorhynchites (Lynchiella) bambusicola, Tx. (Lyn.) theobaldi, Wyeomyia (Dodecamyia) aphobema, Wy. (Miamyia) codiocampa and Wy. serratoria (subgenus uncertain) are extended, including new records for four provinces in Argentina and four new records for the country, increasing the number of species known to occur in Argentina from 242 to 246.

Probabilistic modeling of percutaneous absorption for risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ho, Clifford Kuofei

Chemical transport through human skin can play a significant role in human exposure to toxic chemicals in the workplace, as well as to chemical/biological warfare agents in the battlefield. The viability of transdermal drug delivery also relies on chemical transport processes through the skin. Models of percutaneous absorption are needed for risk-based exposure assessments and drug-delivery analyses, but previous mechanistic models have been largely deterministic. A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of percutaneous absorption of chemicals has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes that may be important to risk-based assessments. Penetration routes through the skinmore » that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times. This probabilistic analysis of percutaneous absorption (PAPA) method has been developed to improve risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug-delivery analyses, where parameters and processes can be highly uncertain.« less

Separation Control Over A Wall-Mounted Hump

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenblatt, D.; Paschal, K. B.; Schaeffler, N. W.; Washburn, A. E.; Harris, J.; Yao, C. S.

2007-01-01

Separation control by means of steady suction or zero efflux oscillatory jets is known to be effective in a wide variety of flows under different flow conditions. Control is effective when applied in a nominally two-dimensional manner, for example, at the leading-edge of a wing or at the shoulder of a deflected flap. Despite intuitive understanding of the flow, at present there is no accepted theoretical model that can adequately explain or describe the observed effects of the leading parameters such as reduced suction-rate, or frequency and momentum input. This difficulty stems partly from the turbulent nature of the flows combined with superimposed coherent structures, which are usually driven by at least one instability mechanism. The ever increasing technological importance of these flows has spurned an urgent need to develop turbulence models with a predictive capability. Present attempts to develop such models are hampered in one way or another by incomplete data sets, uncertain or undocumented inflow and boundary conditions, or inadequate flow-field measurements. This paper attempts to address these issues by conducting an experimental investigation of a lowspeed separated flow over a wall-mounted hump model. The model geometry was designed by Seifert & Pack, who measured static and dynamic pressures on the model for a wide range of Reynolds and Mach numbers and control conditions. This paper describes the present experimental setup, as well as the types and range of data acquired. Sample data is presented and future work is discussed.

Nuclear Forensics Analysis with Missing and Uncertain Data

DOE PAGES

Langan, Roisin T.; Archibald, Richard K.; Lamberti, Vincent

2015-10-05

We have applied a new imputation-based method for analyzing incomplete data, called Monte Carlo Bayesian Database Generation (MCBDG), to the Spent Fuel Isotopic Composition (SFCOMPO) database. About 60% of the entries are absent for SFCOMPO. The method estimates missing values of a property from a probability distribution created from the existing data for the property, and then generates multiple instances of the completed database for training a machine learning algorithm. Uncertainty in the data is represented by an empirical or an assumed error distribution. The method makes few assumptions about the underlying data, and compares favorably against results obtained bymore » replacing missing information with constant values.« less

Study of Plasma Flows Generated in Plasma Focus Discharge in Different Regimes of Working Gas Filling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voitenko, D. A.; Ananyev, S. S.; Astapenko, G. I.; Basilaia, A. D.; Markolia, A. I.; Mitrofanov, K. N.; Myalton, V. V.; Timoshenko, A. P.; Kharrasov, A. M.; Krauz, V. I.

2017-12-01

Results are presented from experimental studies of the plasma flows generated in the KPF-4 Phoenix Mather-type plasma focus device (Sukhum Physical Technical Institute). In order to study how the formation and dynamics of the plasma flow depend on the initial distribution of the working gas, a system of pulsed gas puffing into the discharge volume was developed. The system allows one to create profiled gas distributions, including those with a reduced gas density in the region of plasma flow propagation. Results of measurements of the magnetic field, flow profile, and flow deceleration dynamics at different initial distributions of the gas pressure are presented.

Cerulean Warbler Occurrence Atlas for Military Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

Army Ammuniton Plant (Closed) IN NO 2009 Army IOWA ARMY AMMUNITION PLANT IA UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE J. Percy Priest Lake TN UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE J...Stonewall Jackson Lake WV UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE Summersville Lake WV no POC Army Sunflower Army Ammunition Plant KS no POC USACE Sutton Lake WV UNCERTAIN

Was the Deepwater Horizon Well Discharge Churn Flow? Implications on the Estimation of the Oil Discharge and Droplet Size Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boufadel, Michel C.; Gao, Feng; Zhao, Lin; Özgökmen, Tamay; Miller, Richard; King, Thomas; Robinson, Brian; Lee, Kenneth; Leifer, Ira

2018-03-01

Improved understanding of the character of an uncontrolled pipeline flow is critical for the estimation of the oil discharge and droplet size distribution both essential for evaluating oil spill impact. Measured oil and gas properties at the wellhead of the Macondo255 and detailed numerical modeling suggested that the flow within the pipe could have been "churn," whereby oil and gas tumble violently within the pipe and is different from the bubbly flow commonly assumed for that release. The churn flow would have produced 5 times the energy loss in the pipe compared to bubbly flow, and its plume would have entrained 35% more water than that of the bubbly flow. Both findings suggest that the oil discharge in Deepwater Horizon could have been overestimated, by up to 200%. The resulting oil droplet size distribution of churn flow is likely smaller than that of bubbly flow.

Insights on Flow Behavior of Foam in Unsaturated Porous Media during Soil Flushing.

PubMed

Zhao, Yong S; Su, Yan; Lian, Jing R; Wang, He F; Li, Lu L; Qin, Chuan Y

2016-11-01

  One-dimensional column and two-dimensional tank experiments were carried out to determine (1) the physics of foam flow and propagation of foaming gas, foaming liquid, and foam; (2) the pressure distribution along foam flow and the effect of media permeability, foam flow rate and foam quality on foam injection pressure; and (3) the migration and distribution property of foam flow in homogeneous and heterogeneous sediments. The results demonstrated that: (1) gas and liquid front were formed ahead of the foam flow front, the transport speed order is foaming gas > foaming liquid > foam flowing; (2) injection pressure mainly comes from the resistance to bubble migration. Effect of media permeability on foam injection pressure mainly depends on the physics and behavior of foam flow; (3) foam has a stronger capacity of lateral spreading, besides, foam flow was uniformly distributed across the foam-occupied region, regardless of the heterogeneity of porous media.

Research of working pulsation in closed angle based on rotating-sleeve distributing-flow system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yanjun; Zhang, Hongxin; Zhao, Qinghai; Jiang, Xiaotian; Cheng, Qianchang

2017-08-01

In order to reduce negative effects including hydraulic impact, noise and mechanical vibration, compression and expansion of piston pump in closed volume are used to optimize the angle between valve port and chamber. In addition, the mathematical model about pressurization and depressurization in pump chamber are analyzed based on distributing-flow characteristic, and it is necessary to use simulation software Fluent to simulate the distributing-flow fluid model so as to select the most suitable closed angle. As a result, when compression angle is 3°, the angle is closest to theoretical analysis and has the minimum influence on flow and pump pressure characteristic. Meanwhile, cavitation phenomenon appears in pump chamber in different closed angle on different degrees. Besides the flow pulsation is increasingly smaller with increasing expansion angle. Thus when expansion angle is 2°, the angle is more suitable for distributing-flow system.

Ethylene Trace-gas Techniques for High-speed Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, David O.; Reichert, Bruce A.

1994-01-01

Three applications of the ethylene trace-gas technique to high-speed flows are described: flow-field tracking, air-to-air mixing, and bleed mass-flow measurement. The technique involves injecting a non-reacting gas (ethylene) into the flow field and measuring the concentration distribution in a downstream plane. From the distributions, information about flow development, mixing, and mass-flow rates can be dtermined. The trace-gas apparatus and special considerations for use in high-speed flow are discussed. A description of each application, including uncertainty estimates is followed by a demonstrative example.

Real-time three-dimensional color Doppler echocardiography for characterizing the spatial velocity distribution and quantifying the peak flow rate in the left ventricular outflow tract

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsujino, H.; Jones, M.; Shiota, T.; Qin, J. X.; Greenberg, N. L.; Cardon, L. A.; Morehead, A. J.; Zetts, A. D.; Travaglini, A.; Bauer, F.;

Frictional velocity-weakening in landslides on Earth and on other planetary bodies.

PubMed

Lucas, Antoine; Mangeney, Anne; Ampuero, Jean Paul

2014-03-04

One of the ultimate goals in landslide hazard assessment is to predict maximum landslide extension and velocity. Despite much work, the physical processes governing energy dissipation during these natural granular flows remain uncertain. Field observations show that large landslides travel over unexpectedly long distances, suggesting low dissipation. Numerical simulations of landslides require a small friction coefficient to reproduce the extension of their deposits. Here, based on analytical and numerical solutions for granular flows constrained by remote-sensing observations, we develop a consistent method to estimate the effective friction coefficient of landslides. This method uses a constant basal friction coefficient that reproduces the first-order landslide properties. We show that friction decreases with increasing volume or, more fundamentally, with increasing sliding velocity. Inspired by frictional weakening mechanisms thought to operate during earthquakes, we propose an empirical velocity-weakening friction law under a unifying phenomenological framework applicable to small and large landslides observed on Earth and beyond.

Determinants and impacts of international remittances on household welfare in Vietnam.

PubMed

Pfau, Wade Donald; Giang, Long Thanh

2009-01-01

Remittances can potentially help to promote economic development by providing a mechanism to share risks, reduce poverty and improve equality. However, from the viewpoint of economic theory the overall impacts of remittances are uncertain, as different mechanisms lead to opposite impacts. Since the 1990s Vietnam has experienced a dramatic growth in remittance flows from abroad. Vietnam is a unique case for study, as economic motives historically played a smaller role in outward migration than in other countries. Fortunately, household survey data are available for this time period, allowing for a detailed analysis of the impacts of international remittances on Vietnam. Specifically, we examine the characteristics of recipients and the impacts of international remittances on economic inequality and poverty. We conclude that international remittances are helping to improve equality. For this reason, new development policies must also account for their potential impacts on remittance flows.

Evaluation of the effect of postural and gravitational variations on the distribution of pulmonary blood flow via an image-based computational model.

PubMed

Burrowes, K S; Hunter, P J; Tawhai, M H

2005-01-01

We have developed an image-based computational model of blood flow within the human pulmonary circulation in order to investigate the distribution of flow under various conditions of posture and gravity. Geometric models of the lobar surfaces and largest arterial and venous vessels were derived from multi-detector row X-ray computed tomography. The remaining blood vessels were generated using a volume-filling branching algorithm. Equations representing conservation of mass and momentum are solved within the vascular geometry to calculate pressure, radius, and velocity distributions. Flow solutions are obtained within the model in the upright, inverted, prone, and supine postures and in the upright posture with and without gravity. Additional equations representing large deformation mechanics are used to calculate the change in lung geometry and pressure distributions within the lung in the various postures - creating a coupled, co-dependent model of mechanics and flow. The embedded vascular meshes deform in accordance with the lung geometry. Results illustrate a persistent flow gradient from the top to the bottom of the lung even in the absence of gravity and in all postures, indicating that vascular branching structure is largely responsible for the distribution of flow.

Controls on the distribution and isotopic composition of helium in deep ground-water flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, X.; Fritzel, T.L.B.; Quinodoz, H.A.M.; Bethke, C.M.; Torgersen, T.

1998-01-01

The distribution and isotopic composition of helium in sedimentary basins can be used to interpret the ages of very old ground waters. The piston-flow model commonly used in such interpretation, how ever, does not account for several important factors and as such works well only in very simple flow regimes. In this study of helium transport in a hypothetical sedimentary basin, we develop a numerical model that accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the basal helium flux, hydrodynamic dispersion, and complexities in flow regimes such as subregional flow cells. The modeling shows that these factors exert strong controls on the helium distribution and isotopic composition. The simulations may provide a basis for more accurate interpretations of observed helium concentrations and isotopic ratios in sedimentary basins.

Uncertainty quantification of surface-water/groundwater exchange estimates in large wetland systems using Python

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; Metz, P. A.

2014-12-01

Most watershed studies include observation-based water budget analyses to develop first-order estimates of significant flow terms. Surface-water/groundwater (SWGW) exchange is typically assumed to be equal to the residual of the sum of inflows and outflows in a watershed. These estimates of SWGW exchange, however, are highly uncertain as a result of the propagation of uncertainty inherent in the calculation or processing of the other terms of the water budget, such as stage-area-volume relations, and uncertainties associated with land-cover based evapotranspiration (ET) rate estimates. Furthermore, the uncertainty of estimated SWGW exchanges can be magnified in large wetland systems that transition from dry to wet during wet periods. Although it is well understood that observation-based estimates of SWGW exchange are uncertain it is uncommon for the uncertainty of these estimates to be directly quantified. High-level programming languages like Python can greatly reduce the effort required to (1) quantify the uncertainty of estimated SWGW exchange in large wetland systems and (2) evaluate how different approaches for partitioning land-cover data in a watershed may affect the water-budget uncertainty. We have used Python with the Numpy, Scipy.stats, and pyDOE packages to implement an unconstrained Monte Carlo approach with Latin Hypercube sampling to quantify the uncertainty of monthly estimates of SWGW exchange in the Floral City watershed of the Tsala Apopka wetland system in west-central Florida, USA. Possible sources of uncertainty in the water budget analysis include rainfall, ET, canal discharge, and land/bathymetric surface elevations. Each of these input variables was assigned a probability distribution based on observation error or spanning the range of probable values. The Monte Carlo integration process exposes the uncertainties in land-cover based ET rate estimates as the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in SWGW exchange estimates. We will discuss the uncertainty of SWGW exchange estimates using an ET model that partitions the watershed into open water and wetland land-cover types. We will also discuss the uncertainty of SWGW exchange estimates calculated using ET models partitioned into additional land-cover types.

Melt-induced speed-up of Greenland ice sheet offset by efficient subglacial drainage.

PubMed

Sundal, Aud Venke; Shepherd, Andrew; Nienow, Peter; Hanna, Edward; Palmer, Steven; Huybrechts, Philippe

2011-01-27

Fluctuations in surface melting are known to affect the speed of glaciers and ice sheets, but their impact on the Greenland ice sheet in a warming climate remains uncertain. Although some studies suggest that greater melting produces greater ice-sheet acceleration, others have identified a long-term decrease in Greenland's flow despite increased melting. Here we use satellite observations of ice motion recorded in a land-terminating sector of southwest Greenland to investigate the manner in which ice flow develops during years of markedly different melting. Although peak rates of ice speed-up are positively correlated with the degree of melting, mean summer flow rates are not, because glacier slowdown occurs, on average, when a critical run-off threshold of about 1.4 centimetres a day is exceeded. In contrast to the first half of summer, when flow is similar in all years, speed-up during the latter half is 62 ± 16 per cent less in warmer years. Consequently, in warmer years, the period of fast ice flow is three times shorter and, overall, summer ice flow is slower. This behaviour is at odds with that expected from basal lubrication alone. Instead, it mirrors that of mountain glaciers, where melt-induced acceleration of flow ceases during years of high melting once subglacial drainage becomes efficient. A model of ice-sheet flow that captures switching between cavity and channel drainage modes is consistent with the run-off threshold, fast-flow periods, and later-summer speeds we have observed. Simulations of the Greenland ice-sheet flow under climate warming scenarios should account for the dynamic evolution of subglacial drainage; a simple model of basal lubrication alone misses key aspects of the ice sheet's response to climate warming.

Detecting Human Hydrologic Alteration from Diversion Hydropower Requires Universal Flow Prediction Tools: A Proposed Framework for Flow Prediction in Poorly-gauged, Regulated Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibler, K. M.; Alipour, M.

2016-12-01

Achieving the universal energy access Sustainable Development Goal will require great investment in renewable energy infrastructure in the developing world. Much growth in the renewable sector will come from new hydropower projects, including small and diversion hydropower in remote and mountainous regions. Yet, human impacts to hydrological systems from diversion hydropower are poorly described. Diversion hydropower is often implemented in ungauged rivers, thus detection of impact requires flow analysis tools suited to prediction in poorly-gauged and human-altered catchments. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of hydrologic alteration in 32 rivers developed with diversion hydropower in southwestern China. As flow data are sparse, we devise an approach for estimating streamflow during pre- and post-development periods, drawing upon a decade of research into prediction in ungauged basins. We apply a rainfall-runoff model, parameterized and forced exclusively with global-scale data, in hydrologically-similar gauged and ungauged catchments. Uncertain "soft" data are incorporated through fuzzy numbers and confidence-based weighting, and a multi-criteria objective function is applied to evaluate model performance. Testing indicates that the proposed framework returns superior performance (NSE = 0.77) as compared to models parameterized by rote calibration (NSE = 0.62). Confident that the models are providing `the right answer for the right reasons', our analysis of hydrologic alteration based on simulated flows indicates statistically significant hydrologic effects of diversion hydropower across many rivers. Mean annual flows, 7-day minimum and 7-day maximum flows decreased. Frequency and duration of flow exceeding Q25 decreased while duration of flows sustained below the Q75 increased substantially. Hydrograph rise and fall rates and flow constancy increased. The proposed methodology may be applied to improve diversion hydropower design in data-limited regions.

Inverse modeling of flow tomography experiments in fractured media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klepikova, Maria; Le Borgne, Tanguy; Bour, Olivier; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald

2014-05-01

Inverse modeling of fracture hydraulic properties and connectivity is a very challenging objective due to the strong heterogeneity of the medium at multiple scales and the scarcity of data. Cross-borehole flowmeter tests, which consist of measuring changes in vertical borehole flows when pumping a neighboring borehole, were shown to be an efficient technique to provide information on the properties of the flow zones that connect borehole pairs (Paillet, 1998, Le Borgne et al., 2007). The interpretation of such experiments may, however, be quite uncertain when multiple connections exist. We propose the flow tomography approach (i.e., sequential cross-borehole flowmeter tests) to characterize the connectivity and transmissivity of preferential permeable flow paths in fractured aquifers (Klepikova et al., 2013). An inverse model approach is developed to estimate log-transformed transmissivity values of hydraulically active fractures between the pumping and observation wells by inverting cross-borehole flow and water level data. Here a simplified discrete fracture network approach that highlights main connectivity structures is used. This conceptual model attempts to reproduce fracture network connectivity without taking fracture geometry (length, orientation, dip) into account. We demonstrate that successively exchanging the roles of pumping and observation boreholes improves the quality of available information and reduces the under-determination of the problem. The inverse method is validated for several synthetic flow scenarios. It is shown to provide a good estimation of connectivity patterns and transmissivities of main flow paths. It also allows the estimation of the transmissivity of fractures that connect the flow paths but do not cross the boreholes, although the associated uncertainty may be high for some geometries. The results of this investigation encourage the application of flow tomography to natural fractured aquifers.

Distribution of intrarenal blood flow consequent to left atrial balloon inflation.

PubMed

Passmore, J C; Stremel, R W; Hock, C E; Allen, R L; Bradford, W B

1985-01-01

The effects of inflation of a balloon within, and consequent distension of, the left atrium (LABI, left atrial balloon inflation) on total renal blood flow (RBF) and intrarenal blood flow distribution were measured and compared to values obtained from another group of dogs that were hemorrhaged (HEM) to the same level of hypotension as that produced by LABI, a mean systemic arterial pressure of 88 mm Hg. Kidney wt/kg, RBF/kg body wt, and urine flow were markedly reduced during the hemorrhage period in the HEM group when compared to values obtained during the experimental period for the LABI group. Data from the freeze-dissection (133Xe) analysis revealed that the percentage distribution of blood flow as renal outer cortical (OC) blood flow was less (26%) in the HEM group than in the LABI group (50%), this latter value being very similar to that of control dogs that experienced no hypotension (49%). LABI better maintains OC blood flow and urine flow when compared to HEM at the same systemic blood pressure, suggesting a role for cardiopulmonary receptors in reflex sympathetic control of renal blood flow distribution during hypotension.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Numerical simulations of drainage flows on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parish, Thomas R.; Howard, Alan D.

1992-01-01

Data collected by Viking Landers have shown that the meteorology of the near surface Martian environment is analogous to desertlike terrestrial conditions. Geological evidence such as dunes and frost streaks indicate that the surface wind is a potentially important factor in scouring of the martian landscape. In particular, the north polar basin shows erosional features that suggest katabatic wind convergence into broad valleys near the margin of the polar cap. The pattern of katabatic wind drainage off the north polar cap is similar to that observed on Earth over Antarctica or Greenland. The sensitivity is explored of Martian drainage flows to variations in terrain slope and diurnal heating using a numerical modeling approach. The model used is a 2-D sigma coordinate primitive equation system that has been used for simulations of Antarctic drainage flows. Prognostic equations include the flux forms of the horizontal scalar momentum equations, temperature, and continuity. Parameterization of both longwave (terrestrial) and shortwave (solar) radiation is included. Turbulent transfer of heat and momentum in the Martian atmosphere remains uncertain since relevant measurements are essentially nonexistent.

Flow field and dissolved oxygen distributions in the outer channel of the Orbal oxidation ditch by monitor and CFD simulation.

PubMed

Guo, Xuesong; Zhou, Xin; Chen, Qiuwen; Liu, Junxin

2013-04-01

In the Orbal oxidation ditch, denitrification is primarily accomplished in the outer channel. However, the detailed characteristics of the flow field and dissolved oxygen (DO) distribution in the outer channel are not well understood. Therefore, in this study, the flow velocity and DO concentration in the outer channel of an Orbal oxidation ditch system in a wastewater treatment plant in Beijing (China) were monitored under actual operation conditions. The flow field and DO concentration distributions were analyzed by computed fluid dynamic modeling. In situ monitoring and modeling both showed that the flow velocity was heterogeneous in the outer channel. As a result, the DO was also heterogeneously distributed in the outer channel, with concentration gradients occurring along the flow direction as well as in the cross-section. This heterogeneous DO distribution created many anoxic and aerobic zones, which may have facilitated simultaneous nitrification-denitrification in the channel. These findings may provide supporting information for rational optimization of the performance of the Orbal oxidation ditch.

Pitot-pressure distributions of the flow field of a delta-wing orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cleary, J. W.

1972-01-01

Pitot pressure distributions of the flow field of a 0.0075-scale model of a typical delta wing shuttle orbiter are presented. Results are given for the windward and leeward sides on centerline in the angle-of-attack plane from wind tunnel tests conducted in air. Distributions are shown for three axial stations X/L = .35, .60, and .98 and for angles of attack from 0 to 60 deg. The tests were made at a Mach number of 7.4 and for Reynolds numbers based on body length from 1,500,000 to 9,000,000. The windward distributions at the two survey stations forward of the body boat tail demonstrate the compressive aspects of the flow from the shock wave to the body. Conversely, the distributions at the aft station display an expansion of the flow that is attributed to body boat tail. On the lee side, results are given at low angles of attack that illustrate the complicating aspects of the canopy on the flow field, while results are given to show the effects of flow separation at high angles of attack.

Prediction-error variance in Bayesian model updating: a comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadollahi, Parisa; Li, Jian; Huang, Yong

2017-04-01

In Bayesian model updating, the likelihood function is commonly formulated by stochastic embedding in which the maximum information entropy probability model of prediction error variances plays an important role and it is Gaussian distribution subject to the first two moments as constraints. The selection of prediction error variances can be formulated as a model class selection problem, which automatically involves a trade-off between the average data-fit of the model class and the information it extracts from the data. Therefore, it is critical for the robustness in the updating of the structural model especially in the presence of modeling errors. To date, three ways of considering prediction error variances have been seem in the literature: 1) setting constant values empirically, 2) estimating them based on the goodness-of-fit of the measured data, and 3) updating them as uncertain parameters by applying Bayes' Theorem at the model class level. In this paper, the effect of different strategies to deal with the prediction error variances on the model updating performance is investigated explicitly. A six-story shear building model with six uncertain stiffness parameters is employed as an illustrative example. Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to draw samples of the posterior probability density function of the structure model parameters as well as the uncertain prediction variances. The different levels of modeling uncertainty and complexity are modeled through three FE models, including a true model, a model with more complexity, and a model with modeling error. Bayesian updating is performed for the three FE models considering the three aforementioned treatments of the prediction error variances. The effect of number of measurements on the model updating performance is also examined in the study. The results are compared based on model class assessment and indicate that updating the prediction error variances as uncertain parameters at the model class level produces more robust results especially when the number of measurement is small.

Measurement of hydraulic characteristics of porous media used to grow plants in microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, Susan L.; Poritz, Darwin

2005-01-01

Understanding the effect of gravity on hydraulic properties of plant growth medium is essential for growing plants in space. The suitability of existing models to simulate hydraulic properties of porous medium is uncertain due to limited understanding of fundamental mechanisms controlling water and air transport in microgravity. The objective of this research was to characterize saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (K) of two particle-size distributions of baked ceramic aggregate using direct measurement techniques compatible with microgravity. Steady state (Method A) and instantaneous profile measurement (Method B) methods for K were used in a single experimental unit with horizontal flow through thin sections of porous medium providing an earth-based analog to microgravity. Comparison between methods was conducted using a crossover experimental design compatible with limited resources of space flight. Satiated (natural saturation) K ranged from 0.09 to 0.12 cm s-1 and 0.5 to >1 cm s-1 for 0.25- to 1- and 1- to 2-mm media, respectively. The K at the interaggregate/intraaggregate transition was approximately 10(-4) cm s-1 for both particle-size distributions. Significant differences in log(10)K due to method and porous medium were less than one order of magnitude and were attributed to variability in air entrapment. The van Genuchten/Mualem parametric models provided an adequate prediction of K of the interaggregate pore space, using residual water content for that pore space. The instantaneous profile method covers the range of water contents relevant to plant growth using fewer resources than Method A, all advantages for space flight where mass, volume, and astronaut time are limited.

A cross-site comparison of methods used for hydrogeologic characterization of the Galena-Platteville aquifer in Illinois and Wisconsin, with examples from selected Superfund sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kay, Robert T.; Mills, Patrick C.; Dunning, Charles P.; Yeskis, Douglas J.; Ursic, James R.; Vendl, Mark

2004-01-01

The effectiveness of 28 methods used to characterize the fractured Galena-Platteville aquifer at eight sites in northern Illinois and Wisconsin is evaluated. Analysis of government databases, previous investigations, topographic maps, aerial photographs, and outcrops was essential to understanding the hydrogeology in the area to be investigated. The effectiveness of surface-geophysical methods depended on site geology. Lithologic logging provided essential information for site characterization. Cores were used for stratigraphy and geotechnical analysis. Natural-gamma logging helped identify the effect of lithology on the location of secondary- permeability features. Caliper logging identified large secondary-permeability features. Neutron logs identified trends in matrix porosity. Acoustic-televiewer logs identified numerous secondary-permeability features and their orientation. Borehole-camera logs also identified a number of secondary-permeability features. Borehole ground-penetrating radar identified lithologic and secondary-permeability features. However, the accuracy and completeness of this method is uncertain. Single-point-resistance, density, and normal resistivity logs were of limited use. Water-level and water-quality data identified flow directions and indicated the horizontal and vertical distribution of aquifer permeability and the depth of the permeable features. Temperature, spontaneous potential, and fluid-resistivity logging identified few secondary-permeability features at some sites and several features at others. Flowmeter logging was the most effective geophysical method for characterizing secondary-permeability features. Aquifer tests provided insight into the permeability distribution, identified hydraulically interconnected features, the presence of heterogeneity and anisotropy, and determined effective porosity. Aquifer heterogeneity prevented calculation of accurate hydraulic properties from some tests. Different methods, such as flowmeter logging and slug testing, occasionally produced different interpretations. Aquifer characterization improved with an increase in the number of data points, the period of data collection, and the number of methods used.

Distribution of perfusion.

PubMed

Glenny, Robb; Robertson, H Thomas

2011-01-01

Local driving pressures and resistances within the pulmonary vascular tree determine the distribution of perfusion in the lung. Unlike other organs, these local determinants are significantly influenced by regional hydrostatic and alveolar pressures. Those effects on blood flow distribution are further magnified by the large vertical height of the human lung and the relatively low intravascular pressures in the pulmonary circulation. While the distribution of perfusion is largely due to passive determinants such as vascular geometry and hydrostatic pressures, active mechanisms such as vasoconstriction induced by local hypoxia can also redistribute blood flow. This chapter reviews the determinants of regional lung perfusion with a focus on vascular tree geometry, vertical gradients induced by gravity, the interactions between vascular and surrounding alveolar pressures, and hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction. While each of these determinants of perfusion distribution can be examined in isolation, the distribution of blood flow is dynamically determined and each component interacts with the others so that a change in one region of the lung influences the distribution of blood flow in other lung regions. © 2011 American Physiological Society.

Surrogate-based optimization of hydraulic fracturing in pre-existing fracture networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Sun, Yunwei; Fu, Pengcheng; Carrigan, Charles R.; Lu, Zhiming; Tong, Charles H.; Buscheck, Thomas A.

2013-08-01

Hydraulic fracturing has been used widely to stimulate production of oil, natural gas, and geothermal energy in formations with low natural permeability. Numerical optimization of fracture stimulation often requires a large number of evaluations of objective functions and constraints from forward hydraulic fracturing models, which are computationally expensive and even prohibitive in some situations. Moreover, there are a variety of uncertainties associated with the pre-existing fracture distributions and rock mechanical properties, which affect the optimized decisions for hydraulic fracturing. In this study, a surrogate-based approach is developed for efficient optimization of hydraulic fracturing well design in the presence of natural-system uncertainties. The fractal dimension is derived from the simulated fracturing network as the objective for maximizing energy recovery sweep efficiency. The surrogate model, which is constructed using training data from high-fidelity fracturing models for mapping the relationship between uncertain input parameters and the fractal dimension, provides fast approximation of the objective functions and constraints. A suite of surrogate models constructed using different fitting methods is evaluated and validated for fast predictions. Global sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the impact of the input variables on the output of interest, and further used for parameter screening. The high efficiency of the surrogate-based approach is demonstrated for three optimization scenarios with different and uncertain ambient conditions. Our results suggest the critical importance of considering uncertain pre-existing fracture networks in optimization studies of hydraulic fracturing.

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

Validation of model predictions of pore-scale fluid distributions during two-phase flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bultreys, Tom; Lin, Qingyang; Gao, Ying; Raeini, Ali Q.; AlRatrout, Ahmed; Bijeljic, Branko; Blunt, Martin J.

2018-05-01

Pore-scale two-phase flow modeling is an important technology to study a rock's relative permeability behavior. To investigate if these models are predictive, the calculated pore-scale fluid distributions which determine the relative permeability need to be validated. In this work, we introduce a methodology to quantitatively compare models to experimental fluid distributions in flow experiments visualized with microcomputed tomography. First, we analyzed five repeated drainage-imbibition experiments on a single sample. In these experiments, the exact fluid distributions were not fully repeatable on a pore-by-pore basis, while the global properties of the fluid distribution were. Then two fractional flow experiments were used to validate a quasistatic pore network model. The model correctly predicted the fluid present in more than 75% of pores and throats in drainage and imbibition. To quantify what this means for the relevant global properties of the fluid distribution, we compare the main flow paths and the connectivity across the different pore sizes in the modeled and experimental fluid distributions. These essential topology characteristics matched well for drainage simulations, but not for imbibition. This suggests that the pore-filling rules in the network model we used need to be improved to make reliable predictions of imbibition. The presented analysis illustrates the potential of our methodology to systematically and robustly test two-phase flow models to aid in model development and calibration.

Stochastic Management of Non-Point Source Contamination: Joint Impact of Aquifer Heterogeneity and Well Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henri, C. V.; Harter, T.

2017-12-01

Agricultural activities are recognized as the preeminent origin of non-point source (NPS) contamination of water bodies through the leakage of nitrate, salt and agrochemicals. A large fraction of world agricultural activities and therefore NPS contamination occurs over unconsolidated alluvial deposit basins offering soil composition and topography favorable to productive farming. These basins represent also important groundwater reservoirs. The over-exploitation of aquifers coupled with groundwater pollution by agriculture-related NPS contaminant has led to a rapid deterioration of the quality of these groundwater basins. The management of groundwater contamination from NPS is challenged by the inherent complexity of aquifers systems. Contaminant transport dynamics are highly uncertain due to the heterogeneity of hydraulic parameters controlling groundwater flow. Well characteristics are also key uncertain elements affecting pollutant transport and NPS management but quantifying uncertainty in NPS management under these conditions is not well documented. Our work focuses on better understanding the joint impact of aquifer heterogeneity and pumping well characteristics (extraction rate and depth) on (1) the transport of contaminants from NPS and (2) the spatio-temporal extension of the capture zone. To do so, we generate a series of geostatistically equivalent 3D heterogeneous aquifers and simulate the flow and non-reactive solute transport from NPS to extraction wells within a stochastic framework. The propagation of the uncertainty on the hydraulic conductivity field is systematically analyzed. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of extraction well characteristics (pumping rate and screen depth) is also conducted. Results highlight the significant role that heterogeneity and well characteristics plays on management metrics. We finally show that, in case of NPS contamination, the joint impact of regional longitudinal and transverse vertical hydraulic gradients and well depth strongly constrain the average travel times and extension of the contributing area.

Locational Marginal Pricing in the Campus Power System at the Power Distribution Level

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hao, Jun; Gu, Yi; Zhang, Yingchen

2016-11-14

In the development of smart grid at distribution level, the realization of real-time nodal pricing is one of the key challenges. The research work in this paper implements and studies the methodology of locational marginal pricing at distribution level based on a real-world distribution power system. The pricing mechanism utilizes optimal power flow to calculate the corresponding distributional nodal prices. Both Direct Current Optimal Power Flow and Alternate Current Optimal Power Flow are utilized to calculate and analyze the nodal prices. The University of Denver campus power grid is used as the power distribution system test bed to demonstrate themore » pricing methodology.« less

Measurement of the Width and Skewness of Elliptic Flow Fluctuations in PbPb Collisions at 5.02 TeV with CMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castle, James R.; CMS Collaboration

2017-11-01

Flow harmonic fluctuations are studied for PbPb collisions at √{sNN} = 5.02 TeV using the CMS detector at the LHC. Flow harmonic probability distributions p(v2) are obtained by unfolding smearing effects from observed azimuthal anisotropy distributions using particles of 0.3

Numerical study of melt flow under the influence of heater-generating magnetic field during directional solidification of silicon ingots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zaoyang; Qi, Xiaofang; Liu, Lijun; Zhou, Genshu

2018-02-01

The alternating current (AC) in the resistance heater for generating heating power can induce a magnetic field in the silicon melt during directional solidification (DS) of silicon ingots. We numerically study the influence of such a heater-generating magnetic field on the silicon melt flow and temperature distribution in an industrial DS process. 3D simulations are carried out to calculate the Lorentz force distribution as well as the melt flow and heat transfer in the entire DS furnace. The pattern and intensity of silicon melt flow as well as the temperature distribution are compared for cases with and without Lorentz force. The results show that the Lorentz force induced by the heater-generating magnetic field is mainly distributed near the top and side surfaces of the silicon melt. The melt flow and temperature distribution, especially those in the upper part of the silicon region, can be influenced significantly by the magnetic field.

Reactivity to low-flow as a potential determinant for brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilatation.

PubMed

Aizawa, Kunihiko; Elyas, Salim; Adingupu, Damilola D; Casanova, Francesco; Gooding, Kim M; Strain, W David; Shore, Angela C; Gates, Phillip E

2016-06-01

Previous studies have reported a vasoconstrictor response in the radial artery during a cuff-induced low-flow condition, but a similar low-flow condition in the brachial artery results in nonuniform reactivity. This variable reactivity to low-flow influences the subsequent flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) response following cuff-release. However, it is uncertain whether reactivity to low-flow is important in data interpretation in clinical populations and older adults. This study aimed to determine the influence of reactivity to low-flow on the magnitude of brachial artery FMD response in middle-aged and older individuals with diverse cardiovascular risk profiles. Data were analyzed from 165 individuals, divided into increased cardiovascular risk (CVR: n = 115, 85M, 67.0 ± 8.8 years) and healthy control (CTRL: n = 50, 30M, 63.2 ± 7.2 years) groups. Brachial artery diameter and blood velocity data obtained from Doppler ultrasound were used to calculate FMD, reactivity to low-flow and estimated shear rate (SR) using semiautomated edge-detection software. There was a significant association between reactivity to low-flow and FMD in overall (r = 0.261), CTRL (r = 0.410) and CVR (r = 0.189, all P < 0.05) groups. Multivariate regression analysis found that reactivity to low-flow, peak SR, and baseline diameter independently contributed to FMD along with sex, the presence of diabetes, and smoking (total R(2) = 0.450). There was a significant association between reactivity to low-flow and the subsequent FMD response in the overall dataset, and reactivity to low-flow independently contributed to FMD These findings suggest that reactivity to low-flow plays a key role in the subsequent brachial artery FMD response and is important in the interpretation of FMD data. © 2016 The Authors. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Physiological Society and The Physiological Society.

Potential for saltwater intrusion into the lower Tamiami aquifer near Bonita Springs, southwestern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, W. Barclay; Edwards, K. Michelle

2003-01-01

A study was conducted to examine the potential for saltwater intrusion into the lower Tamiami aquifer beneath Bonita Springs in southwestern Florida. Field data were collected, and constant- and variable-density ground-water flow simulations were performed that: (1) spatially quantified modern and seasonal stresses, (2) identified potential mechanisms of saltwater intrusion, and (3) estimated the potential extent of saltwater intrusion for the area of concern. MODFLOW and the inverse modeling routine UCODE were used to spatially quantify modern and seasonal stresses by calibrating a constant-density ground-water flow model to field data collected in 1996. The model was calibrated by assuming hydraulic conductivity parameters were accurate and by estimating unmonitored ground-water pumpage and potential evapotranspiration with UCODE. Uncertainty in these estimated parameters was quantified with 95-percent confidence intervals. These confidence intervals indicate more uncertainty (or less reliability) in the estimates of unmonitored ground-water pumpage than estimates of pan-evaporation multipliers, because of the nature and distribution of observations used during calibration. Comparison of simulated water levels, streamflows, and net recharge with field data suggests the model is a good representation of field conditions. Potential mechanisms of saltwater intrusion into the lower Tamiami aquifer include: (1) lateral inland movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface from the southwestern coast of Florida; (2) upward leakage from deeper saline water-bearing zones through natural upwelling and upconing, both of which could occur as diffuse upward flow through semiconfining layers, conduit flow through karst features, or pipe flow through leaky artesian wells; (3) downward leakage of saltwater from surface-water channels; and (4) movement of unflushed pockets of relict seawater. Of the many potential mechanisms of saltwater intrusion, field data and variable-density ground-water flow simulations suggest that upconing is of utmost concern, and lateral encroachment is of second-most concern. This interpretation is uncertain, however, because the predominance of saltwater intrusion through leaky artesian wells with connection to deeper, more saline, and higher pressure aquifers was difficult to establish. Effective management of ground-water resources in southwestern Florida requires an understanding of the potential extent of saltwater intrusion in the lower Tamiami aquifer near Bonita Springs. Variable-density, ground-water flow simulations suggest that when saltwater is at dynamic equilibrium with 1996 seasonal stresses, the extent of saltwater intrusion is about 100 square kilometers areally and 70,000 hectare-meters volumetrically. The volumetric extent of saltwater intrusion was most sensitive to changes in recharge, ground-water pumpage, sea level, salinity of the Gulf of Mexico, and the potentiometric surface of the sandstone aquifer, respectively.

Many-objective Groundwater Monitoring Network Design Using Bias-Aware Ensemble Kalman Filtering and Evolutionary Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kollat, J. B.; Reed, P. M.

2009-12-01

This study contributes the ASSIST (Adaptive Strategies for Sampling in Space and Time) framework for improving long-term groundwater monitoring decisions across space and time while accounting for the influences of systematic model errors (or predictive bias). The ASSIST framework combines contaminant flow-and-transport modeling, bias-aware ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) and many-objective evolutionary optimization. Our goal in this work is to provide decision makers with a fuller understanding of the information tradeoffs they must confront when performing long-term groundwater monitoring network design. Our many-objective analysis considers up to 6 design objectives simultaneously and consequently synthesizes prior monitoring network design methodologies into a single, flexible framework. This study demonstrates the ASSIST framework using a tracer study conducted within a physical aquifer transport experimental tank located at the University of Vermont. The tank tracer experiment was extensively sampled to provide high resolution estimates of tracer plume behavior. The simulation component of the ASSIST framework consists of stochastic ensemble flow-and-transport predictions using ParFlow coupled with the Lagrangian SLIM transport model. The ParFlow and SLIM ensemble predictions are conditioned with tracer observations using a bias-aware EnKF. The EnKF allows decision makers to enhance plume transport predictions in space and time in the presence of uncertain and biased model predictions by conditioning them on uncertain measurement data. In this initial demonstration, the position and frequency of sampling were optimized to: (i) minimize monitoring cost, (ii) maximize information provided to the EnKF, (iii) minimize failure to detect the tracer, (iv) maximize the detection of tracer flux, (v) minimize error in quantifying tracer mass, and (vi) minimize error in quantifying the moment of the tracer plume. The results demonstrate that the many-objective problem formulation provides a tremendous amount of information for decision makers. Specifically our many-objective analysis highlights the limitations and potentially negative design consequences of traditional single and two-objective problem formulations. These consequences become apparent through visual exploration of high-dimensional tradeoffs and the identification of regions with interesting compromise solutions. The prediction characteristics of these compromise designs are explored in detail, as well as their implications for subsequent design decisions in both space and time.

Effects of Surface and Subsurface Bed Material Composition on Gravel Transport and Flow Competence Relations—Possibilities for Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunte, K.; Abt, S. R.; Swingle, K. W.; Cenderelli, D. A.; Gaeuman, D. A.

2014-12-01

Bedload transport and flow competence relations are difficult to predict in coarse-bedded steep streams where widely differing sediment supply, bed stability, and complex flow hydraulics greatly affect amounts and sizes of transported gravel particles. This study explains how properties of bed material surface and subsurface size distributions are directly related to gravel transport and may be used for prediction of gravel transport and flow competence relations. Gravel transport, flow competence, and bed material size were measured in step-pool and plane-bed streams. Power functions were fitted to gravel transport QB=aQb and flow competence Dmax=cQd relations; Q is water discharge. Frequency distributions of surface FDsurf and subsurface FDsub bed material were likewise described by power functions FDsurf=hD j and FDsub=kDm fitted over six 0.5-phi size classes within 4 to 22.4 mm. Those gravel sizes are typically mobile even in moderate floods. Study results show that steeper subsurface bed material size distributions lead to steeper gravel transport and flow competence relations, whereas larger amounts of sediment contained in those 6 size bedmaterial classes (larger h and k) flatten the relations. Similarly, steeper surface size distributions decrease the coefficients of the gravel transport and flow competence relations, whereas larger amounts of sediment within the six bed material classes increase the intercepts of gravel transport and flow competence relations. Those relations are likely causative in streams where bedload stems almost entirely from the channel bed as opposed to direct (unworked) contributions from hillslopes and tributaries. The exponent of the subsurface bed material distribution m predicted the gravel transport exponent b with r2 near 0.7 and flow competence exponent d with r2 near 0.5. The intercept of bed surface distributions h increased the intercept a of gravel transport and c of the flow competence relations with r2 near 0.6.

Combustor with two stage primary fuel assembly

DOEpatents

Sharifi, Mehran; Zolyomi, Wendel; Whidden, Graydon Lane

2000-01-01

A combustor for a gas turbine having first and second passages for pre-mixing primary fuel and air supplied to a primary combustion zone. The flow of fuel to the first and second pre-mixing passages is separately regulated using a single annular fuel distribution ring having first and second row of fuel discharge ports. The interior portion of the fuel distribution ring is divided by a baffle into first and second fuel distribution manifolds and is located upstream of the inlets to the two pre-mixing passages. The annular fuel distribution ring is supplied with fuel by an annular fuel supply manifold, the interior portion of which is divided by a baffle into first and second fuel supply manifolds. A first flow of fuel is regulated by a first control valve and directed to the first fuel supply manifold, from which the fuel is distributed to first fuel supply tubes that direct it to the first fuel distribution manifold. From the first fuel distribution manifold, the first flow of fuel is distributed to the first row of fuel discharge ports, which direct it into the first pre-mixing passage. A second flow of fuel is regulated by a second control valve and directed to the second fuel supply manifold, from which the fuel is distributed to second fuel supply tubes that direct it to the second fuel distribution manifold. From the second fuel distribution manifold, the second flow of fuel is distributed to the second row of fuel discharge ports, which direct it into the second pre-mixing passage.

Flow-duration-frequency behaviour of British rivers based on annual minima data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidman, Maxine D.; Keller, Virginie; Young, Andrew R.; Cadman, Daniel

2003-06-01

A comparison of different probability distribution models for describing the flow-duration-frequency behaviour of annual minima flow events in British rivers is reported. Twenty-five catchments were included in the study, each having stable and natural flow records of at least 30 years in length. Time series of annual minima D-day average flows were derived for each record using durations ( D) of 1, 7, 30, 60, 90, and 365 days and used to construct low flow frequency curves. In each case the Gringorten plotting position formula was used to determine probabilities (of non-exceedance). Four distribution types—Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), Generalised Logistic (GL), Pearson Type-3 (PE3) and Generalised Pareto (GP)—were used to model the probability distribution function for each site. L-moments were used to parameterise individual models, whilst goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess their match to the sample data. The study showed that where short durations (i.e. 60 days or less) were considered, high storage catchments tended to be best represented by GL and GEV distribution models whilst low storage catchments were best described by PE3 or GEV models. However, these models produced reasonable results only within a limited range (e.g. models for high storage catchments did not produce sensible estimates of return periods where the prescribed flow was less than 10% of the mean flow). For annual minima series derived using long duration flow averages (e.g. more than 90 days), GP and GEV models were generally more applicable. The study suggests that longer duration minima do not conform to the same distribution types as short durations, and that catchment properties can influence the type of distribution selected.

Effect of non-equilibrium flow chemistry on the heating distribution over the MESUR forebody during a Martian entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yih-Kang

1992-01-01

Effect of flow field properties on the heating distribution over a 140 deg blunt cone was determined for a Martian atmosphere using Euler, Navier-Stokes (NS), viscous shock layer (VSL), and reacting boundary layer (BLIMPK) equations. The effect of gas kinetics on the flow field and the surface heating distribution were investigated. Gas models with nine species and nine reactions were implemented into the codes. Effects of surface catalysis on the heating distribution were studied using a surface kinetics model having five reactions.

Prediction of the low-velocity distribution from the pore structure in simple porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Anna, Pietro; Quaife, Bryan; Biros, George; Juanes, Ruben

2017-12-01

The macroscopic properties of fluid flow and transport through porous media are a direct consequence of the underlying pore structure. However, precise relations that characterize flow and transport from the statistics of pore-scale disorder have remained elusive. Here we investigate the relationship between pore structure and the resulting fluid flow and asymptotic transport behavior in two-dimensional geometries of nonoverlapping circular posts. We derive an analytical relationship between the pore throat size distribution fλ˜λ-β and the distribution of the low fluid velocities fu˜u-β /2 , based on a conceptual model of porelets (the flow established within each pore throat, here a Hagen-Poiseuille flow). Our model allows us to make predictions, within a continuous-time random-walk framework, for the asymptotic statistics of the spreading of fluid particles along their own trajectories. These predictions are confirmed by high-fidelity simulations of Stokes flow and advective transport. The proposed framework can be extended to other configurations which can be represented as a collection of known flow distributions.

Magnetosheath quasi-trapped distributions and ion flows associated with reconnection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neff, J. E.; Speiser, T. W.; Williams, D. J.

1987-01-01

Using a sample of ISEE 1 and 2 magnetopause crossings previously identified as times of quasi-steady reconnection, flows of medium energy ions in the magnetosheath are identified. The paper then investigates the particle pitch angle distribution immediately before and after each of these events for the signature of quasi-trapped distributions of energetic ions. Several of the ion flows identified were observed simultaneously with previously identified flux transfer events (FTEs). While FTEs identified from the magnetometer tracings typically show evidence of ion flows, the converse is not necessarily true. However, all properties of the magnetosheath ion flows are the same regardless of whether an FTE can be identified from the magnetometer data. Evidence is found for small-scale reconnection processes (FTEs, ion flows) embedded within a larger region of interconnected field, which is traced out by the quasi-trapped particles. Quasi-trapped distributions of medium-energy ions are seen to sandwich reconnection-associated ion flows in the magnetosheath. The results of this survey have been used to suggest a morphology for reconnection events that incorporates both large- and small-scale features.

Learning accurate very fast decision trees from uncertain data streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Chunquan; Zhang, Yang; Shi, Peng; Hu, Zhengguo

2015-12-01

Most existing works on data stream classification assume the streaming data is precise and definite. Such assumption, however, does not always hold in practice, since data uncertainty is ubiquitous in data stream applications due to imprecise measurement, missing values, privacy protection, etc. The goal of this paper is to learn accurate decision tree models from uncertain data streams for classification analysis. On the basis of very fast decision tree (VFDT) algorithms, we proposed an algorithm for constructing an uncertain VFDT tree with classifiers at tree leaves (uVFDTc). The uVFDTc algorithm can exploit uncertain information effectively and efficiently in both the learning and the classification phases. In the learning phase, it uses Hoeffding bound theory to learn from uncertain data streams and yield fast and reasonable decision trees. In the classification phase, at tree leaves it uses uncertain naive Bayes (UNB) classifiers to improve the classification performance. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-life datasets demonstrate the strong ability of uVFDTc to classify uncertain data streams. The use of UNB at tree leaves has improved the performance of uVFDTc, especially the any-time property, the benefit of exploiting uncertain information, and the robustness against uncertainty.

Using MODFLOW drains to simulate groundwater flow in a karst environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinn, J.; Tomasko, D.; Glennon, M.A.

1998-07-01

Modeling groundwater flow in a karst environment is both numerically challenging and highly uncertain because of potentially complex flowpaths and a lack of site-specific information. This study presents the results of MODFLOW numerical modeling in which drain cells in a finite-difference model are used as analogs for preferential flowpaths or conduits in karst environments. In this study, conduits in mixed-flow systems are simulated by assigning connected pathways of drain cells from the locations of tracer releases, sinkholes, or other karst features to outlet springs along inferred flowpaths. These paths are determined by the locations of losing stream segments, ephemeral streammore » beds, geophysical surveys, fracture lineaments, or other surficial characteristics, combined with the results of dye traces. The elevations of the drains at the discharge ends of the inferred flowpaths are estimated from field data and are adjusted when necessary during model calibration. To simulate flow in a free-flowing conduit, a high conductance is assigned to each drain to eliminate the need for drain-specific information that would be very difficult to obtain. Calculations were performed for a site near Hohenfels, Germany. The potentiometric surface produced by the simulations agreed well with field data. The head contours in the vicinity of the karst features behaved in a manner consistent with a flow system having both diffuse and conduit components, and the sum of the volumetric flow out of the drain cells agreed closely with spring discharges and stream flows. Because of the success of this approach, it is recommended for regional studies in which little site-specific information (e.g., location, number, size, and conductivity of fractures and conduits) is available, and general flow characteristics are desired.« less

Void fraction distribution in a heated rod bundle under flow stagnation conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herrero, V.A.; Guido-Lavalle, G.; Clausse, A.

1995-09-01

An experimental study was performed to determine the axial void fraction distribution along a heated rod bundle under flow stagnation conditions. The development of the flow pattern was investigated for different heat flow rates. It was found that in general the void fraction is overestimated by the Zuber & Findlay model while the Chexal-Lellouche correlation produces a better prediction.

Spatial distribution of venous gas emboli in the lungs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Souders, J. E.; Doshier, J. B.; Polissar, N. L.; Hlastala, M. P.

1999-01-01

The distribution of gaseous pulmonary emboli is presumed to be determined by their buoyancy. We hypothesized that regional pulmonary blood flow may also influence their distribution. Therefore, pulmonary blood flow was measured in supine, anesthetized dogs with use of 15-microm fluorescent microspheres at baseline and during N(2) embolism. The animals were killed, and the lungs were excised, air-dried, and diced into approximately 2-cm(3) pieces with weights and spatial coordinates recorded. Embolism was defined as a >10% flow decrease relative to baseline. Vertically, the incidence of embolism increased substantially by 6 +/- 1% per additional centimeter in height compared with baseline (P = 0.0003). Embolism also increased radially by 3 +/- 1%/cm from the hilum (P = 0.002). There was a weaker but statistically significant increase in embolism to pieces with greater baseline flow, 9 +/- 2% for every 1. 0 increase in relative baseline flow (P = 0.008). We conclude that the distribution of gaseous emboli is influenced by buoyancy and flow dynamics within the pulmonary vasculature.

Blood flow characteristics in the ascending aorta after TAVI compared to surgical aortic valve replacement.

PubMed

Trauzeddel, Ralf Felix; Löbe, Ulrike; Barker, Alex J; Gelsinger, Carmen; Butter, Christian; Markl, Michael; Schulz-Menger, Jeanette; von Knobelsdorff-Brenkenhoff, Florian

2016-03-01

Ascending aortic blood flow characteristics are altered after aortic valve surgery, but the effect of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is unknown. Abnormal flow may be associated with aortic and cardiac remodeling. We analyzed blood flow characteristics in the ascending aorta after TAVI in comparison to conventional stented aortic bioprostheses (AVR) and healthy subjects using time-resolved three-dimensional flow-sensitive cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (4D-flow MRI). Seventeen patients with TAVI (Edwards Sapien XT), 12 with AVR and 9 healthy controls underwent 4D-flow MRI of the ascending aorta. Target parameters were: severity of vortical and helical flow pattern (semiquantitative grading from 0 = none to 3 = severe) and the local distribution of systolic wall shear stress (WSSsystole). AVR revealed significantly more extensive vortical and helical flow pattern than TAVI (p = 0.042 and p = 0.002) and controls (p < 0.001 and p = 0.001). TAVI showed significantly more extensive vortical flow than controls (p < 0.001). Both TAVI and AVR revealed marked blood flow eccentricity (64.7 and 66.7%, respectively), whereas controls showed central blood flow (88.9%). TAVI and AVR exhibited an asymmetric distribution of WSSsystole in the mid-ascending aorta with local maxima at the right anterior aortic wall and local minima at the left posterior wall. In contrast, controls showed a symmetric distribution of WSSsystole along the aortic circumference. Blood flow was significantly altered in the ascending aorta after TAVI and AVR. Changes were similar regarding WSSsystole distribution, while TAVI resulted in less helical and vortical blood flow.

An advanced kinetic theory for morphing continuum with inner structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, James

2017-12-01

Advanced kinetic theory with the Boltzmann-Curtiss equation provides a promising tool for polyatomic gas flows, especially for fluid flows containing inner structures, such as turbulence, polyatomic gas flows and others. Although a Hamiltonian-based distribution function was proposed for diatomic gas flow, a general distribution function for the generalized Boltzmann-Curtiss equations and polyatomic gas flow is still out of reach. With assistance from Boltzmann's entropy principle, a generalized Boltzmann-Curtiss distribution for polyatomic gas flow is introduced. The corresponding governing equations at equilibrium state are derived and compared with Eringen's morphing (micropolar) continuum theory derived under the framework of rational continuum thermomechanics. Although rational continuum thermomechanics has the advantages of mathematical rigor and simplicity, the presented statistical kinetic theory approach provides a clear physical picture for what the governing equations represent.

Heat flow and thermal processes in the Jornada delMuerto, New Mexico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reiter, M.

1985-01-01

Most heat flow data in rifts are uncertain largely because of hydrologic disturbances in regions of extensive fracturing. Estimates of heat flow in deep petroleum tests within a large basin of the Rio Grande rift, which has suffered little syn-rift fracturing, may begin to provide clearer insight into the relationships between high heat flow and crustal thinning processes. The Jornada del Muerto is a large basin located in the Rio Grande rift of south central New Mexico. The region of interest within the Jornada del Muerto is centered about 30 km east of the town of Truth or Consequences, and is approximately 60 km north-south by 30 km east-west. High heat flows are estimated for the region. Values increase from about 90 mWm(-2) in the northern part of the study area to about 125 mWm(-2) in the southern part. These high heat flows are rather enigmatic because in the immediate vicinities of the sites there is little evidence of Cenozoic volcanism or syn-rift extensional tectonics. It is suggested that the geothermal anomaly in the southern Jornada del Muerto (approx. 125 to approx. 95 mWm(-2) results from some type of mass movement-heat transfer mechanism operating in the crust just below the elastic layer. This conclusion is consistent with the geologic and geophysical data which describe a thin crust, apparently devoid of features indicative of extensional-tectonics in the upper part of the lastic crust.

Cluster synchronization transmission of different external signals in discrete uncertain network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chengren; Lü, Ling; Chen, Liansong; Hong, Yixuan; Zhou, Shuang; Yang, Yiming

2018-07-01

We research cluster synchronization transmissions of different external signals in discrete uncertain network. Based on the Lyapunov theorem, the network controller and the identification law of uncertain adjustment parameter are designed, and they are efficiently used to achieve the cluster synchronization and the identification of uncertain adjustment parameter. In our technical scheme, the network nodes in each cluster and the transmitted external signal can be different, and they allow the presence of uncertain parameters in the network. Especially, we are free to choose the clustering topologies, the cluster number and the node number in each cluster.

Quantification of hepatic flow distribution using particle tracking for patient specific virtual Fontan surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Weiguang; Vignon-Clementel, Irene; Troianowski, Guillaume; Shadden, Shawn; Mohhan Reddy, V.; Feinstein, Jeffrey; Marsden, Alison

2010-11-01

The Fontan surgery is the third and final stage in a palliative series to treat children with single ventricle heart defects. In the extracardiac Fontan procedure, the inferior vena cava (IVC) is connected to the pulmonary arteries via a tube-shaped Gore-tex graft. Clinical observations have shown that the absence of a hepatic factor, carried in the IVC flow, can cause pulmonary arteriovenous malformations. Although it is clear that hepatic flow distribution is an important determinant of Fontan performance, few studies have quantified its relation to Fontan design. In this study, we virtually implanted three types of grafts (T-junction, offset and Y-graft) into 5 patient specific models of the Glenn (stage 2) anatomy. We then performed 3D time-dependent simulations and systematically compared the IVC flow distribution, energy loss, and pressure levels in different surgical designs. A robustness test is performed to evaluate the sensitivity of hepatic distribution to pulmonary flow split. Results show that the Y-graft design effectively improves the IVC flow distribution, compared to traditional designs and that surgical designs could be customized on a patient-by-patient basis.

A Hermite-based lattice Boltzmann model with artificial viscosity for compressible viscous flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Ruofan; Chen, Rongqian; Zhu, Chenxiang; You, Yancheng

2018-05-01

A lattice Boltzmann model on Hermite basis for compressible viscous flows is presented in this paper. The model is developed in the framework of double-distribution-function approach, which has adjustable specific-heat ratio and Prandtl number. It contains a density distribution function for the flow field and a total energy distribution function for the temperature field. The equilibrium distribution function is determined by Hermite expansion, and the D3Q27 and D3Q39 three-dimensional (3D) discrete velocity models are used, in which the discrete velocity model can be replaced easily. Moreover, an artificial viscosity is introduced to enhance the model for capturing shock waves. The model is tested through several cases of compressible flows, including 3D supersonic viscous flows with boundary layer. The effect of artificial viscosity is estimated. Besides, D3Q27 and D3Q39 models are further compared in the present platform.

Investigation on inlet recirculation characteristics of double suction centrifugal compressor with unsymmetrical inlet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ce; Wang, Yingjun; Lao, Dazhong; Tong, Ding; Wei, Longyu; Liu, Yixiong

2016-08-01

The inlet recirculation characteristics of double suction centrifugal compressor with unsymmetrical inlet structures were studied in numerical method, mainly focused on three issues including the amounts and differences of the inlet recirculation in different working conditions, the circumferential non-uniform distributions of the inlet recirculation, the recirculation velocity distributions of the upstream slot of the rear impeller. The results show that there are some differences between the recirculation of the front impeller and that of the rear impeller in whole working conditions. In design speed, the recirculation flow rate of the rear impeller is larger than that of the front impeller in the large flow range, but in the small flow range, the recirculation flow rate of the rear impeller is smaller than that of the front impeller. In different working conditions, the recirculation velocity distributions of the front and rear impeller are non-uniform along the circumferential direction and their non-uniform extents are quite different. The circumferential non-uniform extent of the recirculation velocity varies with the working conditions change. The circumferential non-uniform extent of the recirculation velocity of front impeller and its distribution are determined by the static pressure distribution of the front impeller, but that of the rear impeller is decided by the coupling effects of the inlet flow distortion of the rear impeller, the circumferential unsymmetrical distribution of the upstream slot and the asymmetric structure of the volute. In the design flow and small flow conditions, the recirculation velocities at different circumferential positions of the mean line of the upstream slot cross-section of the rear impeller are quite different, and the recirculation velocities distribution forms at both sides of the mean line are different. The recirculation velocity distributions in the cross-section of the upstream slot depend on the static pressure distributions in the intake duct.

Dynamic change of collateral flow varying with distribution of regional blood flow in acute ischemic rat cortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Luo, Weihua; Zhou, Fangyuan; Li, Pengcheng; Luo, Qingming

2012-12-01

Cerebral blood flow (CBF) is critical for the maintenance of cerebral function by guaranteed constant oxygen and glucose supply to brain. Collateral channels (CCs) are recruited to provide alternatives to CBF to ischemic regions once the primary vessel is occluded during ischemic stroke. However, the knowledge of the relationship between dynamic evolution of collateral flow and the distribution of regional blood flow remains limited. In this study, laser speckle imaging was used to assess dynamic changes of CCs and regional blood flow in a rat cortex with permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAo). We found that CCs immediately provided blood flow to ischemic territories after MCAo. More importantly, there were three kinds of dynamic changes of CCs during acute stroke: persistent CC, impermanent CC, and transient CC, respectively, related to different distributions of regional blood flow. Although there was the possible occurrence of peri-infarct depolarization (PID) during ischemia, there was no obvious significance about the onset time and duration of CCs between rats with and without PID. These results suggest that the initial arising of CCs does not ensure their persistence, and that collateral flow could be varied with distribution of regional blood flow in acute ischemic stroke, which may facilitate the understanding of collateral recruitment and promote the development of collateral therapeutics in the future.

Dynamic change of collateral flow varying with distribution of regional blood flow in acute ischemic rat cortex.

PubMed

Wang, Zhen; Luo, Weihua; Zhou, Fangyuan; Li, Pengcheng; Luo, Qingming

2012-12-01

Cerebral blood flow (CBF) is critical for the maintenance of cerebral function by guaranteed constant oxygen and glucose supply to brain. Collateral channels (CCs) are recruited to provide alternatives to CBF to ischemic regions once the primary vessel is occluded during ischemic stroke. However, the knowledge of the relationship between dynamic evolution of collateral flow and the distribution of regional blood flow remains limited. In this study, laser speckle imaging was used to assess dynamic changes of CCs and regional blood flow in a rat cortex with permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAo). We found that CCs immediately provided blood flow to ischemic territories after MCAo. More importantly, there were three kinds of dynamic changes of CCs during acute stroke: persistent CC, impermanent CC, and transient CC, respectively, related to different distributions of regional blood flow. Although there was the possible occurrence of peri-infarct depolarization (PID) during ischemia, there was no obvious significance about the onset time and duration of CCs between rats with and without PID. These results suggest that the initial arising of CCs does not ensure their persistence, and that collateral flow could be varied with distribution of regional blood flow in acute ischemic stroke, which may facilitate the understanding of collateral recruitment and promote the development of collateral therapeutics in the future.

Load-Flow in Multiphase Distribution Networks: Existence, Uniqueness, Non-Singularity, and Linear Models

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Andrey; Wang, Cong; Dall'Anese, Emiliano; ...

2018-01-01

This paper considers unbalanced multiphase distribution systems with generic topology and different load models, and extends the Z-bus iterative load-flow algorithm based on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC load-flow equations. Explicit conditions for existence and uniqueness of load-flow solutions are presented. These conditions also guarantee convergence of the load-flow algorithm to the unique solution. The proposed methodology is applicable to generic systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. Further, a sufficient condition for themore » non-singularity of the load-flow Jacobian is proposed. Finally, linear load-flow models are derived, and their approximation accuracy is analyzed. Theoretical results are corroborated through experiments on IEEE test feeders.« less

Load-Flow in Multiphase Distribution Networks: Existence, Uniqueness, Non-Singularity, and Linear Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Andrey; Wang, Cong; Dall'Anese, Emiliano

This paper considers unbalanced multiphase distribution systems with generic topology and different load models, and extends the Z-bus iterative load-flow algorithm based on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC load-flow equations. Explicit conditions for existence and uniqueness of load-flow solutions are presented. These conditions also guarantee convergence of the load-flow algorithm to the unique solution. The proposed methodology is applicable to generic systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. Further, a sufficient condition for themore » non-singularity of the load-flow Jacobian is proposed. Finally, linear load-flow models are derived, and their approximation accuracy is analyzed. Theoretical results are corroborated through experiments on IEEE test feeders.« less

Entrainment and mixing in thrust augmenting ejectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernal, L.; Sarohia, V.

1983-01-01

An experimental investigation of two-dimensional thrust augmenting ejector flows has been conducted. Measurements of the shroud surface pressure distribution, mean velocity, turbulent intensities and Reynolds stresses were made in two shroud geometries at various primary nozzle pressure ratios. The effects of shroud geometry and primary nozzle pressure ratio on the shroud surface pressure distribution, mean flow field and turbulent field were determined. From these measurements the evolution of mixing within the shroud of the primary flow and entrained fluid was obtained. The relationship between the mean flow field, the turbulent field and the shroud surface pressure distribution is discussed.

[Quality of medicines in least developed countries].

PubMed

Videau, J Y

2006-12-01

Due to worsening economic conditions and poor enforcement of existing pharmaceutical and customs regulations, third world countries are faced with a growing threat from counterfeit and substandard medicines. With the expansion of illicit markets in urban areas, the sales of medicines of uncertain quality and origin are increasing. Most victims of this illicit trade are among the world's poorest populations that cannot afford to buy quality drugs through private-sector distribution channels. National pharmaceutical programs promoting universal access to essential generic medicines at reasonable cost are the key to curbing this problem. A system based on strict, rational pharmaceutical purchasing and distribution policies with quality assurance at every level of the supply chain is needed to guarantee that patients receive safe effective high quality healthcare products.

Effects of coarse grain size distribution and fine particle content on pore fluid pressure and shear behavior in experimental debris flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaitna, Roland; Palucis, Marisa C.; Yohannes, Bereket; Hill, Kimberly M.; Dietrich, William E.

2016-02-01

Debris flows are typically a saturated mixture of poorly sorted particles and interstitial fluid, whose density and flow properties depend strongly on the presence of suspended fine sediment. Recent research suggests that grain size distribution (GSD) influences excess pore pressures (i.e., pressure in excess of predicted hydrostatic pressure), which in turn plays a governing role in debris flow behaviors. We report a series of controlled laboratory experiments in a 4 m diameter vertically rotating drum where the coarse particle size distribution and the content of fine particles were varied independently. We measured basal pore fluid pressures, pore fluid pressure profiles (using novel sensor probes), velocity profiles, and longitudinal profiles of the flow height. Excess pore fluid pressure was significant for mixtures with high fines fraction. Such flows exhibited lower values for their bulk flow resistance (as measured by surface slope of the flow), had damped fluctuations of normalized fluid pressure and normal stress, and had velocity profiles where the shear was concentrated at the base of the flow. These effects were most pronounced in flows with a wide coarse GSD distribution. Sustained excess fluid pressure occurred during flow and after cessation of motion. Various mechanisms may cause dilation and contraction of the flows, and we propose that the sustained excess fluid pressures during flow and once the flow has stopped may arise from hindered particle settling and yield strength of the fluid, resulting in transfer of particle weight to the fluid. Thus, debris flow behavior may be strongly influenced by sustained excess fluid pressures controlled by particle settling rates.

Mixed Convection Flow in Horizontal CVD Reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Wilson K. S.; Richards, Cristy J.; Jaluria, Yogesh

1998-11-01

Increasing demands for high quality films and production rates are challenging current Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) technology. Since film quality and deposition rates are strongly dependent on gas flow and heat transfer (W.K.S. Chiu and Y. Jaluria, ASME HTD-Vol. 347, pp. 293-311, 1997.), process improvement is obtained through the study of mixed convection flow and temperature distribution in a CVD reactor. Experimental results are presented for a CVD chamber with a horizontal or inclined resistance heated susceptor. Vaporized glycol solution illuminated by a light sheet is used for flow visualization. Temperature measurements are obtained by inserting thermocouple probes into the gas stream or embedding probes into the reactor walls. Flow visualization and temperature measurements show predominantly two dimensional flow and temperature distributions along the streamwise direction under forced convection conditions. Natural convection dominates under large heating rates and low flow rates. Over the range of parameters studied, several distinct flow regimes, characterized by instability, separation, and turbulence, are evident. Different flow regimes alter the flow pattern and temperature distribution, and in consequence, significantly modify deposition rates and uniformity.

Distributed Coordination for Optimal Energy Generation and Distribution in Cyber-Physical Energy Networks.

PubMed

Ahn, Hyo-Sung; Kim, Byeong-Yeon; Lim, Young-Hun; Lee, Byung-Hun; Oh, Kwang-Kyo

2018-03-01

This paper proposes three coordination laws for optimal energy generation and distribution in energy network, which is composed of physical flow layer and cyber communication layer. The physical energy flows through the physical layer; but all the energies are coordinated to generate and flow by distributed coordination algorithms on the basis of communication information. First, distributed energy generation and energy distribution laws are proposed in a decoupled manner without considering the interactive characteristics between the energy generation and energy distribution. Second, a joint coordination law to treat the energy generation and energy distribution in a coupled manner taking account of the interactive characteristics is designed. Third, to handle over- or less-energy generation cases, an energy distribution law for networks with batteries is designed. The coordination laws proposed in this paper are fully distributed in the sense that they are decided optimally only using relative information among neighboring nodes. Through numerical simulations, the validity of the proposed distributed coordination laws is illustrated.

A double-gaussian, percentile-based method for estimating maximum blood flow velocity.

PubMed

Marzban, Caren; Illian, Paul R; Morison, David; Mourad, Pierre D

2013-11-01

Transcranial Doppler sonography allows for the estimation of blood flow velocity, whose maximum value, especially at systole, is often of clinical interest. Given that observed values of flow velocity are subject to noise, a useful notion of "maximum" requires a criterion for separating the signal from the noise. All commonly used criteria produce a point estimate (ie, a single value) of maximum flow velocity at any time and therefore convey no information on the distribution or uncertainty of flow velocity. This limitation has clinical consequences especially for patients in vasospasm, whose largest flow velocities can be difficult to measure. Therefore, a method for estimating flow velocity and its uncertainty is desirable. A gaussian mixture model is used to separate the noise from the signal distribution. The time series of a given percentile of the latter, then, provides a flow velocity envelope. This means of estimating the flow velocity envelope naturally allows for displaying several percentiles (e.g., 95th and 99th), thereby conveying uncertainty in the highest flow velocity. Such envelopes were computed for 59 patients and were shown to provide reasonable and useful estimates of the largest flow velocities compared to a standard algorithm. Moreover, we found that the commonly used envelope was generally consistent with the 90th percentile of the signal distribution derived via the gaussian mixture model. Separating the observed distribution of flow velocity into a noise component and a signal component, using a double-gaussian mixture model, allows for the percentiles of the latter to provide meaningful measures of the largest flow velocities and their uncertainty.

Cerebral Autoregulation Is Minimally Influenced by the Superior Cervical Ganglion in Two- Week-Old Lambs, and Absent in Preterm Lambs Immediately Following Delivery

PubMed Central

Czynski, Adam J.; Terry, Michael H.; Deming, Douglas D.; Power, Gordon G.; Buchholz, John N.; Blood, Arlin B.

2013-01-01

Cerebral vessels in the premature newborn brain are well supplied with adrenergic nerves, stemming from the superior cervical ganglia (SCG), but their role in regulation of blood flow remains uncertain. To test this function twelve premature or two-week-old lambs were instrumented with laser Doppler flow probes in the parietal cortices to measure changes in blood flow during changes in systemic blood pressure and electrical stimulation of the SCG. In lambs delivered prematurely at ∼129 days gestation cerebral perfusion and driving pressure demonstrated a direct linear relationship throughout the physiologic range, indicating lack of autoregulation. In contrast, in lambs two-weeks of age, surgical removal of one SCG resulted in ipsilateral loss of autoregulation during pronounced hypertension. Electrical stimulation of one SCG elicited unilateral increases in cerebral resistance to blood flow in both pre-term and two-week-old lambs, indicating functioning neural pathways in the instrumented, anesthetized lambs. We conclude cerebral autoregulation is non-functional in preterm lambs following cesarean delivery. Adrenergic control of cerebral vascular resistance becomes effective in newborn lambs within two-weeks after birth but SCG-dependent autoregulation is essential only during pronounced hypertension, well above the normal range of blood pressure. PMID:24349256

An analysis code for the Rapid Engineering Estimation of Momentum and Energy Losses (REMEL)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dechant, Lawrence J.

1994-01-01

Nonideal behavior has traditionally been modeled by defining efficiency (a comparison between actual and isentropic processes), and subsequent specification by empirical or heuristic methods. With the increasing complexity of aeropropulsion system designs, the reliability of these more traditional methods is uncertain. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and experimental methods can provide this information but are expensive in terms of human resources, cost, and time. This report discusses an alternative to empirical and CFD methods by applying classical analytical techniques and a simplified flow model to provide rapid engineering estimates of these losses based on steady, quasi-one-dimensional governing equations including viscous and heat transfer terms (estimated by Reynold's analogy). A preliminary verification of REMEL has been compared with full Navier-Stokes (FNS) and CFD boundary layer computations for several high-speed inlet and forebody designs. Current methods compare quite well with more complex method results and solutions compare very well with simple degenerate and asymptotic results such as Fanno flow, isentropic variable area flow, and a newly developed, combined variable area duct with friction flow solution. These solution comparisons may offer an alternative to transitional and CFD-intense methods for the rapid estimation of viscous and heat transfer losses in aeropropulsion systems.

Quantifying the Uncertainty in Discharge Data Using Hydraulic Knowledge and Uncertain Gaugings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renard, B.; Le Coz, J.; Bonnifait, L.; Branger, F.; Le Boursicaud, R.; Horner, I.; Mansanarez, V.; Lang, M.

2014-12-01

River discharge is a crucial variable for Hydrology: as the output variable of most hydrologic models, it is used for sensitivity analyses, model structure identification, parameter estimation, data assimilation, prediction, etc. A major difficulty stems from the fact that river discharge is not measured continuously. Instead, discharge time series used by hydrologists are usually based on simple stage-discharge relations (rating curves) calibrated using a set of direct stage-discharge measurements (gaugings). In this presentation, we present a Bayesian approach to build such hydrometric rating curves, to estimate the associated uncertainty and to propagate this uncertainty to discharge time series. The three main steps of this approach are described: (1) Hydraulic analysis: identification of the hydraulic controls that govern the stage-discharge relation, identification of the rating curve equation and specification of prior distributions for the rating curve parameters; (2) Rating curve estimation: Bayesian inference of the rating curve parameters, accounting for the individual uncertainties of available gaugings, which often differ according to the discharge measurement procedure and the flow conditions; (3) Uncertainty propagation: quantification of the uncertainty in discharge time series, accounting for both the rating curve uncertainties and the uncertainty of recorded stage values. In addition, we also discuss current research activities, including the treatment of non-univocal stage-discharge relationships (e.g. due to hydraulic hysteresis, vegetation growth, sudden change of the geometry of the section, etc.).

Hydrologic responses to restored wildfire regimes revealed by soil moisture-vegetation relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boisramé, Gabrielle; Thompson, Sally; Stephens, Scott

2018-02-01

Many forested mountain watersheds worldwide evolved with frequent fire, which Twentieth Century fire suppression activities eliminated, resulting in unnaturally dense forests with high water demand. Restoration of pre-suppression forest composition and structure through a variety of management activities could improve forest resilience and water yields. This study explores the potential for "managed wildfire", whereby naturally ignited fires are allowed to burn, to alter the water balance. Interest in this type of managed wildfire is increasing, yet its long-term effects on water balance are uncertain. We use soil moisture as a spatially-distributed hydrologic indicator to assess the influence of vegetation, fire history and landscape position on water availability in the Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park. Over 6000 manual surface soil moisture measurements were made over a period of three years, and supplemented with continuous soil moisture measurements over the top 1m of soil in three sites. Random forest and linear mixed effects models showed a dominant effect of vegetation type and history of vegetation change on measured soil moisture. Contemporary and historical vegetation maps were used to upscale the soil moisture observations to the basin and infer soil moisture under fire-suppressed conditions. Little change in basin-averaged soil moisture was inferred due to managed wildfire, but the results indicated that large localized increases in soil moisture had occurred, which could have important impacts on local ecology or downstream flows.

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Contamination potential of nitrogen compounds in the heterogeneous aquifers of the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2005-10-01

This study aimed to analyze the contamination potential associated with the reactive transport of nitrate-N and ammonium-N in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan and to evaluate a risk region in developing a groundwater protection policy in 2021. In this area, an aquifer redox sequence provided a good understanding of the spatial distributions of nitrate-N and ammonium-N and of aerobic and anaerobic environments. Equiprobable hydraulic conductivity ( K) fields reproduced by geostatistical methods characterized the spatial uncertainty of contaminant transport in the heterogeneous aquifer. Nitrogen contamination potential fronts for high and low threshold concentrations based on a 95% risk probability were used to assess different levels of risk. The simulated result reveals that the spatial uncertainty of highly heterogeneous K fields governs the contamination potential assessment of the nitrogen compounds along the regional flow directions. The contamination potential of nitrate-N is more uncertain than that for ammonium-N. The high nitrate-N concentrations (≧ 3 mg/L) are prevalent in the aerobic environment. The low concentration nitrate-N plumes (0.5-3 mg/L) gradually migrate to the mid-fan area and to a maximum distance of 15 km from the aerobic region. The nitrate-N plumes pose a potential human health risk in the aerobic and anaerobic environments. The ammonium-N plumes remain stably confined to the distal-fan and partial mid-fan areas.

Literature Survey on Operational Voltage Control and Reactive Power Management on Transmission and Sub-Transmission Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

Voltage and reactive power system control is generally performed following usual patterns of loads, based on off-line studies for daily and seasonal operations. This practice is currently challenged by the inclusion of distributed renewable generation, such as solar. There has been focus on resolving this problem at the distribution level; however, the transmission and sub-transmission levels have received less attention. This paper provides a literature review of proposed methods and solution approaches to coordinate and optimize voltage control and reactive power management, with an emphasis on applications at transmission and sub-transmission level. The conclusion drawn from the survey is thatmore » additional research is needed in the areas of optimizing switch shunt actions and coordinating all available resources to deal with uncertain patterns from increasing distributed renewable generation in the operational time frame. These topics are not deeply explored in the literature.« less

Landscape heterogeneity shapes predation in a newly restored predator-prey system.

PubMed

Kauffman, Matthew J; Varley, Nathan; Smith, Douglas W; Stahler, Daniel R; MacNulty, Daniel R; Boyce, Mark S

2007-08-01

Because some native ungulates have lived without top predators for generations, it has been uncertain whether runaway predation would occur when predators are newly restored to these systems. We show that landscape features and vegetation, which influence predator detection and capture of prey, shape large-scale patterns of predation in a newly restored predator-prey system. We analysed the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) predation on elk (Cervus elaphus) on the Northern Range of Yellowstone National Park over 10 consecutive winters. The influence of wolf distribution on kill sites diminished over the course of this study, a result that was likely caused by territorial constraints on wolf distribution. In contrast, landscape factors strongly influenced kill sites, creating distinct hunting grounds and prey refugia. Elk in this newly restored predator-prey system should be able to mediate their risk of predation by movement and habitat selection across a heterogeneous risk landscape.

On the size and velocity distribution of cosmic dust particles entering the atmosphere

PubMed Central

Carrillo‐Sánchez, J. D.; Feng, W.; Nesvorný, D.; Janches, D.

2015-01-01

Abstract The size and velocity distribution of cosmic dust particles entering the Earth's atmosphere is uncertain. Here we show that the relative concentrations of metal atoms in the upper mesosphere, and the surface accretion rate of cosmic spherules, provide sensitive probes of this distribution. Three cosmic dust models are selected as case studies: two are astronomical models, the first constrained by infrared observations of the Zodiacal Dust Cloud and the second by radar observations of meteor head echoes; the third model is based on measurements made with a spaceborne dust detector. For each model, a Monte Carlo sampling method combined with a chemical ablation model is used to predict the ablation rates of Na, K, Fe, Mg, and Ca above 60 km and cosmic spherule production rate. It appears that a significant fraction of the cosmic dust consists of small (<5 µg) and slow (<15 km s−1) particles. PMID:27478282

Landscape heterogeneity shapes predation in a newly restored predator-prey system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kauffman, M.J.; Varley, N.; Smith, D.W.; Stahler, D.R.; MacNulty, D.R.; Boyce, M.S.

2007-01-01

Because some native ungulates have lived without top predators for generations, it has been uncertain whether runaway predation would occur when predators are newly restored to these systems. We show that landscape features and vegetation, which influence predator detection and capture of prey, shape large-scale patterns of predation in a newly restored predator-prey system. We analysed the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) predation on elk (Cervus elaphus) on the Northern Range of Yellowstone National Park over 10 consecutive winters. The influence of wolf distribution on kill sites diminished over the course of this study, a result that was likely caused by territorial constraints on wolf distribution. In contrast, landscape factors strongly influenced kill sites, creating distinct hunting grounds and prey refugia. Elk in this newly restored predator-prey system should be able to mediate their risk of predation by movement and habitat selection across a heterogeneous risk landscape. ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Study on Stochastic Optimal Electric Power Procurement Strategies with Uncertain Market Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakchai, Siripatanakulkhajorn; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

The player in deregulated electricity markets can be categorized into three groups of GENCO (Generator Companies), TRNASCO (Transmission Companies), DISCO (Distribution Companies). This research focuses on the role of Distribution Companies, which purchase electricity from market at randomly fluctuating prices, and provide it to their customers at given fixed prices. Therefore Distribution companies have to take the risk stemming from price fluctuation of electricity instead of the customers. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electricity procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing the mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate the value of a long-term bilateral contract of electricity trade, and also a project of combination of the bilateral contract and power generation with their own generators for procuring electric power in deregulated market.

Regulating Effect of Asymmetrical Impeller on the Flow Distributions of Double-sided Centrifugal Compressor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ce; Liu, Yixiong; Yang, Dengfeng; Wang, Benjiang

2017-11-01

To achieve the rebalance of flow distributions of double-sided impellers, a method of improving the radius of rear impeller is presented in this paper. It is found that the flow distributions of front and rear impeller can be adjusted effectively by increasing the radius of rear impeller, thus improves the balance of flow distributions of front and rear impeller. Meanwhile, the working conversion mode process of double-sided centrifugal compressor is also changed. Further analysis shows that the flowrates of blade channels in front impeller are mainly influenced by the circumferential distributions of static pressure in the volute. But the flowrates of rear impeller blade channels are influenced by the outlet flow field of bent duct besides the effects of static pressure distributions in the volute. In the airflow interaction area downstream, the flowrate of blade channel is obviously smaller. By increasing the radius of rear impeller, the work capacity of rear impeller is enhanced, the working mode conversion process from parallel working mode of double-sided impeller to the single impeller working mode is delayed, and the stable working range of double-sided compressor is broadened.

The Influence of Soil Moisture and Wind on Rainfall Distribution and Intensity in Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, R. David; Lynn, Barry H.; Boone, Aaron; Tao, Wei-Kuo

1998-01-01

Land surface processes play a key role in water and energy budgets of the hydrological cycle. For example, the distribution of soil moisture will affect sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn may dramatically influence the location and intensity of precipitation. However, mean wind conditions also strongly influence the distribution of precipitation. The relative importance of soil moisture and wind on rainfall location and intensity remains uncertain. Here, we examine the influence of soil moisture distribution and wind distribution on precipitation in the Florida peninsula using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model Coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data collected on 27 July 1991 in central Florida during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). The idealized numerical experiments consider a block of land (the Florida peninsula) bordered on the east and on the west by ocean. The initial soil moisture distribution is derived from an offline PLACE simulation, and the initial environmental wind profile is determined from the CaPE sounding network. Using the factor separation technique, the precise contribution of soil moisture and wind to rainfall distribution and intensity is determined.

Decadal oscillations and extreme value distribution of river peak flows in the Meuse catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Niel, Jan; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

In flood risk management, flood probabilities are often quantified through Generalized Pareto distributions of river peak flows. One of the main underlying assumptions is that all data points need to originate from one single underlying distribution (i.i.d. assumption). However, this hypothesis, although generally assumed to be correct for variables such as river peak flows, remains somehow questionable: flooding might indeed be caused by different hydrological and/or meteorological conditions. This study confirms these findings from previous research by showing a clear indication of the link between atmospheric conditions and flooding for the Meuse river in The Netherlands: decadal oscillations of river peak flows can (at least partially) be attributed to the occurrence of westerly weather types. The study further proposes a method to take this correlation between atmospheric conditions and river peak flows into account when calibrating an extreme value distribution for river peak flows. Rather than calibrating one single distribution to the data and potentially violating the i.i.d. assumption, weather type depending extreme value distributions are derived and composed. The study shows that, for the Meuse river in The Netherlands, such approach results in a more accurate extreme value distribution, especially with regards to extrapolations. Comparison of the proposed method with a traditional extreme value analysis approach and an alternative model-based approach for the same case study shows strong differences in the peak flow extrapolation. The design-flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m3s-1 for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 m3s-1 and 3,900 m3s-1 for the traditional method and a previous study. The methods were validated based on instrumental and documentary flood information of the past 500 years.

AMS analysis and flow source relationship of lava flows and ignimbrites from the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caballero, C. I.; Alva-Valdivia, L. M.; Morales-Barrera, W.; Rodríguez, S. R.

2013-05-01

The results of an AMS analysis carried on 36 sites from a late Miocene - Holocene volcanic stratigraphic sequence from the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt is presented. 22 sites (450 samples) belong to lava flows, mainly of basaltic composition, from different emission centers from the Xalapa Monogenitc Volcanic Field, (Rodríguez et al 2010, González-Mercado, 2005), "Cofre de Perote Vent Cluster" (CPVC), "Naolinco Volcanic Field" (NVF), (Siebert and Carrasco-Núñez, 2002), and the Chiconquiaco-Palma Sola volcanic complex (López-Infanzón, 1991; Ferrari et al., 2005). 14 sites belong to the widely distributed El Castillo rhyolitic ignimbrite dated 2.44 to 2.21 Ma (Morales-Barrera, 2009) which is a non-welded to welded ignimbrite. AMS measurements were performed with a KLY2 Kappabridge and processed with Anisoft software using Jelinek statistics. Sometimes a density distribution analysis was also performed when magnetic fabric showed more dispersed distribution patterns. AMS ellipsoids from basalt sites show mostly prolate shapes, while those from ignimbrites show mostly oblate shapes, which may partly due to magnetic mineralogy and also to flow dynamics. Flow directions were mostly obtained from the imbrication angle of magnetic foliation (evaluated from kmin axis mean as corresponding to its pole) and considering the symmetry of the axes distribution. Flow direction inferences are discussed in relation with flow source when it is clearly evident from geologic field observations, as it is usually the case with basalt lava flows. While in ignimbrites, flow inferences from petrographic and facies distributions are compared with AMS flow inferences, showing agreement between them in some cases but not in others, may be due to local tilting occurring after ignimbrite emplacement.

Differences in Landsat TM derived lava flow thermal structures during summit and flank eruption at Mount Etna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, V.; Buongiorno, M. F.; Pieri, D.; Merucci, L.

2004-06-01

The simultaneous solution of the Planck equation (the so-called "dual-band" technique) for two shortwave infrared Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) bands allows an estimate of the fractional area of the hottest part of an active flow and the temperature of the cooler crust. Here, the dual-band method has been applied to a time series of Mount Etna eruptions. The frequency distribution of the fractional area of the hottest component reveals specific differences between summit and flank lava flows. The shape of the density function shows a trend consistent with a Gaussian distribution and suggests a relationship between the moments of the distribution and the emplacement environment. Because flow composition of Etnean lavas generally remains constant during the duration of their emplacement, it appears that the shape of any particular frequency distribution is probably related to fluid mechanical aspects of flow emplacement that affect flow velocity and flow heat loss and thus the rate of formation of the surface crust. These factors include the influence of topographical features such as changes in slope gradient, changes in volume effusion rate, and progressive downflow increases in bulk or effective viscosity. A form of the general theoretical solution for the 'dual-band' system, which illustrates the relationship between radiance in TM bands 5 and 7, corresponding to hot fractional area and crust temperature, is presented. Generally speaking, it appears that for a given flow at any point in time, larger fractional areas of exposed hot material are correlated with higher temperatures and that, while the overall shape of that distribution is common for the flows studied, its amplitude and slope reflect individual flow rheological regimes.

Impact of signal scattering and parametric uncertainties on receiver operating characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, D. Keith; Breton, Daniel J.; Hart, Carl R.; Pettit, Chris L.

2017-05-01

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve), which is a plot of the probability of detection as a function of the probability of false alarm, plays a key role in the classical analysis of detector performance. However, meaningful characterization of the ROC curve is challenging when practically important complications such as variations in source emissions, environmental impacts on the signal propagation, uncertainties in the sensor response, and multiple sources of interference are considered. In this paper, a relatively simple but realistic model for scattered signals is employed to explore how parametric uncertainties impact the ROC curve. In particular, we show that parametric uncertainties in the mean signal and noise power substantially raise the tails of the distributions; since receiver operation with a very low probability of false alarm and a high probability of detection is normally desired, these tails lead to severely degraded performance. Because full a priori knowledge of such parametric uncertainties is rarely available in practice, analyses must typically be based on a finite sample of environmental states, which only partially characterize the range of parameter variations. We show how this effect can lead to misleading assessments of system performance. For the cases considered, approximately 64 or more statistically independent samples of the uncertain parameters are needed to accurately predict the probabilities of detection and false alarm. A connection is also described between selection of suitable distributions for the uncertain parameters, and Bayesian adaptive methods for inferring the parameters.

Steep head-down tilt has persisting effects on the distribution of pulmonary blood flow.

PubMed

Henderson, A Cortney; Levin, David L; Hopkins, Susan R; Olfert, I Mark; Buxton, Richard B; Prisk, G Kim

2006-08-01

Head-down tilt has been shown to increase lung water content in animals and alter the distribution of ventilation in humans; however, its effects on the distribution of pulmonary blood flow in humans are unknown. We hypothesized that head-down tilt would increase the heterogeneity of pulmonary blood flow in humans, an effect analogous to the changes seen in the distribution of ventilation, by increasing capillary hydrostatic pressure and fluid efflux in the lung. To test this, we evaluated changes in the distribution of pulmonary blood flow in seven normal subjects before and after 1 h of 30 degrees head-down tilt using the magnetic resonance imaging technique of arterial spin labeling. Data were acquired in triplicate before tilt and at 10-min intervals for 1 h after tilt. Pulmonary blood flow heterogeneity was quantified by the relative dispersion (standard deviation/mean) of signal intensity for all voxels within the right lung. Relative dispersion was significantly increased by 29% after tilt and remained elevated during the 1 h of measurements after tilt (0.84 +/- 0.06 pretilt, 1.09 +/- 0.09 calculated for all time points posttilt, P < 0.05). We speculate that the mechanism most likely responsible for our findings is that increased pulmonary capillary pressures and fluid efflux in the lung resulting from head-down tilt alters regional blood flow distribution.

Distribution of extravascular fluid volumes in isolated perfused lungs measured with H215O.

PubMed Central

Jones, T; Jones, H A; Rhodes, C G; Buckingham, P D; Hughes, J M

1976-01-01

The distributions per unit volume of extravascular water (EVLW), blood volume, and blood flow were measured in isolated perfused vertical dog lungs. A steady-state tracer technique was employed using oxygen-15, carbon-11, and nitrogen-13 isotopes and external scintillation counting of the 511-KeV annihilation radiation common to all three radionuclides. EVLW, and blood volume and flow increased from apex to base in all preparations, but the gradient of increasing flow exceeded that for blood and EVLW volumes. The regional distributions of EVLW and blood volume were almost identical. With increasing edema, lower-zone EVLW increased slightly relative to that in the upper zone. There was no change in the distribution of blood volume or flow until gross edema (100% wt gain) occurred when lower zone values were reduced. In four lungs the distribution of EVLW was compared with wet-to-dry ratios from lung biopsies taken immediately afterwards. Whereas the isotopically measured EVLW increased from apex to base, the wet-to-dry weight ratios remained essentially uniform. We concluded that isotopic methods measure only an "exchangeable" water pool whose volume is dependent on regional blood flow and capillary recruitment. Second, the isolated perfused lung can accommodate up to 60% wt gain without much change in the regional distribution of EVLW, volume, or flow. PMID:765354

Enthalpy Distributions of Arc Jet Flow Based on Measured Laser Induced Fluorescence, Heat Flux and Stagnation Pressure Distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suess, Leonard E.; Milhoan, James D.; Oelke, Lance; Godfrey, Dennis; Larin, Maksim Y.; Scott, Carl D.; Grinstead, Jay H.; DelPapa, Steven

2011-01-01

The centerline total enthalpy of arc jet flow is determined using laser induced fluorescence of oxygen and nitrogen atoms. Each component of the energy, kinetic, thermal, and chemical can be determined from LIF measurements. Additionally, enthalpy distributions are inferred from heat flux and pressure probe distribution measurements using an engineering formula. Average enthalpies are determined by integration over the radius of the jet flow, assuming constant mass flux and a mass flux distribution estimated from computational fluid dynamics calculations at similar arc jet conditions. The trends show favorable agreement, but there is an uncertainty that relates to the multiple individual measurements and assumptions inherent in LIF measurements.

Discharge variability and bedrock river incision on the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huppert, K.; Deal, E.; Perron, J. T.; Ferrier, K.; Braun, J.

2017-12-01

Bedrock river incision occurs during floods that generate sufficient shear stress to strip riverbeds of sediment cover and erode underlying bedrock. Thresholds for incision can prevent erosion at low flows and slow down erosion at higher flows that do generate excess shear stress. Because discharge distributions typically display power-law tails, with non-negligible frequencies of floods much greater than the mean, models incorporating stochastic discharge and incision thresholds predict that discharge variability can sometimes have greater effects on long-term incision rates than mean discharge. This occurs when the commonly observed inverse scalings between mean discharge and discharge variability are weak or when incision thresholds are high. Because the effects of thresholds and discharge variability have only been documented in a few locations, their influence on long-term river incision rates remains uncertain. The Hawaiian island of Kaua'i provides an ideal natural laboratory to evaluate the effects of discharge variability and thresholds on bedrock river incision because it has one of Earth's steepest spatial gradients in mean annual rainfall and it also experiences dramatic spatial variations in rainfall and discharge variability, spanning a wide range of the conditions reported on Earth. Kaua'i otherwise has minimal variations in lithology, vertical motion, and other factors that can influence erosion. River incision rates averaged over 1.5 - 4.5 Myr timescales can be estimated along the lengths of Kauaian channels from the depths of river canyons and lava flow ages. We characterize rainfall and discharge variability on Kaua'i using records from an extensive network of rain and stream gauges spanning the past century. We use these characterizations to model long-term bedrock river incision along Kauaian channels with a threshold-dependent incision law, modulated by site-specific discharge-channel width scalings. Our comparisons between modeled and observed erosion rates suggest that variations in river incision rates on Kaua'i are dominated by variations in mean rainfall and discharge, rather than by differences in storminess across the island. We explore the implications of this result for the threshold dependence of river incision across Earth's varied climates.

Characterizing traffic under uncertain disruptions : an experimental approach.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study long-term traffic patterns under uncertain disruptions using : data collected from human subjects who simultaneously make route choices in controlled PC-based : laboratory experiments. Uncertain disruptions t...

Design of supply chain in fuzzy environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Kandukuri Narayana; Subbaiah, Kambagowni Venkata; Singh, Ganja Veera Pratap

2013-05-01

Nowadays, customer expectations are increasing and organizations are prone to operate in an uncertain environment. Under this uncertain environment, the ultimate success of the firm depends on its ability to integrate business processes among supply chain partners. Supply chain management emphasizes cross-functional links to improve the competitive strategy of organizations. Now, companies are moving from decoupled decision processes towards more integrated design and control of their components to achieve the strategic fit. In this paper, a new approach is developed to design a multi-echelon, multi-facility, and multi-product supply chain in fuzzy environment. In fuzzy environment, mixed integer programming problem is formulated through fuzzy goal programming in strategic level with supply chain cost and volume flexibility as fuzzy goals. These fuzzy goals are aggregated using minimum operator. In tactical level, continuous review policy for controlling raw material inventories in supplier echelon and controlling finished product inventories in plant as well as distribution center echelon is considered as fuzzy goals. A non-linear programming model is formulated through fuzzy goal programming using minimum operator in the tactical level. The proposed approach is illustrated with a numerical example.

An optimization approach for observation association with systemic uncertainty applied to electro-optical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worthy, Johnny L.; Holzinger, Marcus J.; Scheeres, Daniel J.

2018-06-01

The observation to observation measurement association problem for dynamical systems can be addressed by determining if the uncertain admissible regions produced from each observation have one or more points of intersection in state space. An observation association method is developed which uses an optimization based approach to identify local Mahalanobis distance minima in state space between two uncertain admissible regions. A binary hypothesis test with a selected false alarm rate is used to assess the probability that an intersection exists at the point(s) of minimum distance. The systemic uncertainties, such as measurement uncertainties, timing errors, and other parameter errors, define a distribution about a state estimate located at the local Mahalanobis distance minima. If local minima do not exist, then the observations are not associated. The proposed method utilizes an optimization approach defined on a reduced dimension state space to reduce the computational load of the algorithm. The efficacy and efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated on observation data collected from the Georgia Tech Space Object Research Telescope.

Bayesian focalization: quantifying source localization with environmental uncertainty.

PubMed

Dosso, Stan E; Wilmut, Michael J

2007-05-01

This paper applies a Bayesian formulation to study ocean acoustic source localization as a function of uncertainty in environmental properties (water column and seabed) and of data information content [signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and number of frequencies]. The approach follows that of the optimum uncertain field processor [A. M. Richardson and L. W. Nolte, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 89, 2280-2284 (1991)], in that localization uncertainty is quantified by joint marginal probability distributions for source range and depth integrated over uncertain environmental properties. The integration is carried out here using Metropolis Gibbs' sampling for environmental parameters and heat-bath Gibbs' sampling for source location to provide efficient sampling over complicated parameter spaces. The approach is applied to acoustic data from a shallow-water site in the Mediterranean Sea where previous geoacoustic studies have been carried out. It is found that reliable localization requires a sufficient combination of prior (environmental) information and data information. For example, sources can be localized reliably for single-frequency data at low SNR (-3 dB) only with small environmental uncertainties, whereas successful localization with large environmental uncertainties requires higher SNR and/or multifrequency data.

Boundary Control of Linear Uncertain 1-D Parabolic PDE Using Approximate Dynamic Programming.

PubMed

Talaei, Behzad; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Singler, John

2018-04-01

This paper develops a near optimal boundary control method for distributed parameter systems governed by uncertain linear 1-D parabolic partial differential equations (PDE) by using approximate dynamic programming. A quadratic surface integral is proposed to express the optimal cost functional for the infinite-dimensional state space. Accordingly, the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is formulated in the infinite-dimensional domain without using any model reduction. Subsequently, a neural network identifier is developed to estimate the unknown spatially varying coefficient in PDE dynamics. Novel tuning law is proposed to guarantee the boundedness of identifier approximation error in the PDE domain. A radial basis network (RBN) is subsequently proposed to generate an approximate solution for the optimal surface kernel function online. The tuning law for near optimal RBN weights is created, such that the HJB equation error is minimized while the dynamics are identified and closed-loop system remains stable. Ultimate boundedness (UB) of the closed-loop system is verified by using the Lyapunov theory. The performance of the proposed controller is successfully confirmed by simulation on an unstable diffusion-reaction process.

Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bole, Brian; Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George

2012-01-01

A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

Probabilistic Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Single Input Single Output Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brett A.; Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.

2005-01-01

The current standards for handling uncertainty in control systems use interval bounds for definition of the uncertain parameters. This approach gives no information about the likelihood of system performance, but simply gives the response bounds. When used in design, current methods of m-analysis and can lead to overly conservative controller design. With these methods, worst case conditions are weighted equally with the most likely conditions. This research explores a unique approach for probabilistic analysis of control systems. Current reliability methods are examined showing the strong areas of each in handling probability. A hybrid method is developed using these reliability tools for efficiently propagating probabilistic uncertainty through classical control analysis problems. The method developed is applied to classical response analysis as well as analysis methods that explore the effects of the uncertain parameters on stability and performance metrics. The benefits of using this hybrid approach for calculating the mean and variance of responses cumulative distribution functions are shown. Results of the probabilistic analysis of a missile pitch control system, and a non-collocated mass spring system, show the added information provided by this hybrid analysis.

Ion concentrations and velocity profiles in nanochannel electroosmotic flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, R.; Aluru, N. R.

2003-03-01

Ion distributions and velocity profiles for electroosmotic flow in nanochannels of different widths are studied in this paper using molecular dynamics and continuum theory. For the various channel widths studied in this paper, the ion distribution near the channel wall is strongly influenced by the finite size of the ions and the discreteness of the solvent molecules. The classical Poisson-Boltzmann equation fails to predict the ion distribution near the channel wall as it does not account for the molecular aspects of the ion-wall and ion-solvent interactions. A modified Poisson-Boltzmann equation based on electrochemical potential correction is introduced to account for ion-wall and ion-solvent interactions. The electrochemical potential correction term is extracted from the ion distribution in a smaller channel using molecular dynamics. Using the electrochemical potential correction term extracted from molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of electroosmotic flow in a 2.22 nm channel, the modified Poisson-Boltzmann equation predicts the ion distribution in larger channel widths (e.g., 3.49 and 10.00 nm) with good accuracy. Detailed studies on the velocity profile in electro-osmotic flow indicate that the continuum flow theory can be used to predict bulk fluid flow in channels as small as 2.22 nm provided that the viscosity variation near the channel wall is taken into account. We propose a technique to embed the velocity near the channel wall obtained from MD simulation of electroosmotic flow in a narrow channel (e.g., 2.22 nm wide channel) into simulation of electroosmotic flow in larger channels. Simulation results indicate that such an approach can predict the velocity profile in larger channels (e.g., 3.49 and 10.00 nm) very well. Finally, simulation of electroosmotic flow in a 0.95 nm channel indicates that viscosity cannot be described by a local, linear constitutive relationship that the continuum flow theory is built upon and thus the continuum flow theory is not applicable for electroosmotic flow in such small channels.

Effects of flow separation and cove leakage on pressure and heat-transfer distributions along a wing-cove-elevon configuration at Mach 6.9. [Langley 8-ft high temperature tunnel test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deveikis, W. D.

1983-01-01

External and internal pressure and cold-wall heating-rate distributions were obtained in hypersonic flow on a full-scale heat-sink representation of the space shuttle orbiter wing-elevon-cove configuration in an effort to define effects of flow separation on cove aerothermal environment as a function of cove seal leak area, ramp angle, and free-stream unit Reynolds number. Average free-stream Mach number from all tests was 6.9; average total temperature from all tests was 3360 R; free-stream dynamic pressure ranged from about 2 to 9 psi; and wing angle of attack was 5 deg (flow compression). For transitional and turbulent flow separation, increasing cove leakage progressively increased heating rates in the cove. When ingested mass flow was sufficient to force large reductions in extent of separation, increasing cove leakage reduced heating rates in the cove to those for laminar attached flow. Cove heating-rate distributions calculated with a method that assumed laminar developing channel flow agreed with experimentally obtained distributions within root-mean-square differences that varied between 11 and 36 percent where cove walls were parallel for leak areas of 50 and 100 percent.

Effect of furosemide on pulmonary blood flow distribution in resting and exercising horses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erickson, H. H.; Bernard, S. L.; Glenny, R. W.; Fedde, M. R.; Polissar, N. L.; Basaraba, R. J.; Walther, S. M.; Gaughan, E. M.; McMurphy, R.; Hlastala, M. P.

1999-01-01

We determined the spatial distribution of pulmonary blood flow (PBF) with 15-micron fluorescent-labeled microspheres during rest and exercise in five Thoroughbred horses before and 4 h after furosemide administration (0.5 mg/kg iv). The primary finding of this study was that PBF redistribution occurred from rest to exercise, both with and without furosemide. However, there was less blood flow to the dorsal portion of the lung during exercise postfurosemide compared with prefurosemide. Furosemide did alter the resting perfusion distribution by increasing the flow to the ventral regions of the lung; however, that increase in flow was abated with exercise. Other findings included 1) unchanged gas exchange and cardiac output during rest and exercise after vs. before furosemide, 2) a decrease in pulmonary arterial pressure after furosemide, 3) an increase in the slope of the relationship of PBF vs. vertical height up the lung during exercise, both with and without furosemide, and 4) a decrease in blood flow to the dorsal region of the lung at rest after furosemide. Pulmonary perfusion variability within the lung may be a function of the anatomy of the pulmonary vessels that results in a predominantly fixed spatial pattern of flow distribution.

Distribution of Amphipods (Gammarus nipponensis Ueno) Among Mountain Headwater Streams with Different Legacies of Debris Flow Occurrence

EPA Science Inventory

To understand the impacts of debris flows on the distribution of an amphipod with limited dispersal ability in the context of stream networks, we surveyed the presence of Gammarus nipponensis in 87 headwater streams with different legacies of debris flow occurrence within an 8.5-...

Towards Natural Transition in Compressible Boundary Layers

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-29

Behaviour of a natural laminar flow aerofoil in flight through atmospheric turbulence. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 767:394–429, 003 2015. [70] O...DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited See report Wave packet, compressible boundary layer, subsonic flow ...Base flow generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 3.1.1 Boundary layer profiles

Effects of the pion-nucleon potential in 197Au+197Au collisions at 1.5 GeV/nucleon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Wen-Jie; Su, Jun; Zhu, Long; Zhang, Feng-Shou

2018-06-01

The influence of the pion-nucleon potential on the pion dynamics in 197Au+197Au collisions at 1.5 GeV/nucleon for different centrality intervals is investigated in the framework of the isospin-dependent quantum molecular dynamics model. It is found that the observables related to pions, such as the rapidity distributions, the rapidity dependencies of the directed flow and the elliptic flow, the centrality dependencies of the directed flow and the elliptic flow, and the transverse momentum distribution of the strength function of the azimuthal anisotropy are sensitive to the pion-nucleon potential. The pion multiplicity and the polar-angle distributions of pions are less affected by the pion-nucleon potential. The comparisons to the experimental data, in particular to the rapidity distributions of the directed flow and the elliptic flow, favor the stronger pion-nucleon potential derived from the phenomenological ansatz proposed by Gale and Kapusta [C. Gale and J. Kapusta, Phys. Rev. C 35, 2107 (1987), 10.1103/PhysRevC.35.2107].

Hypothetical Modeling of Redox Conditions Within a Complex Ground-Water Flow Field in a Glacial Setting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feinstein, Daniel T.; Thomas, Mary Ann

2009-01-01

This report describes a modeling approach for studying how redox conditions evolve under the influence of a complex ground-water flow field. The distribution of redox conditions within a flow system is of interest because of the intrinsic susceptibility of an aquifer to redox-sensitive, naturally occurring contaminants - such as arsenic - as well as anthropogenic contaminants - such as chlorinated solvents. The MODFLOW-MT3D-RT3D suite of code was applied to a glacial valley-fill aquifer to demonstrate a method for testing the interaction of flow patterns, sources of reactive organic carbon, and availability of electron acceptors in controlling redox conditions. Modeling results show how three hypothetical distributions of organic carbon influence the development of redox conditions in a water-supply aquifer. The distribution of strongly reduced water depends on the balance between the rate of redox reactions and the capability of different parts of the flow system to transmit oxygenated water. The method can take account of changes in the flow system induced by pumping that result in a new distribution of reduced water.

Three-dimensional analysis of flow-chemical interaction within a single square channel of a lean NO x trap catalyst.

PubMed

Fornarelli, Francesco; Dadduzio, Ruggiero; Torresi, Marco; Camporeale, Sergio Mario; Fortunato, Bernardo

2018-02-01

A fully 3D unsteady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach coupled with heterogeneous reaction chemistry is presented in order to study the behavior of a single square channel as part of a Lean [Formula: see text] Traps. The reliability of the numerical tool has been validated against literature data considering only active BaO site. Even though the input/output performance of such catalyst has been well known, here the spatial distribution within a single channel is investigated in details. The square channel geometry influences the flow field and the catalyst performance being the flow velocity distribution on the cross section non homogeneous. The mutual interaction between the flow and the active catalyst walls influences the spatial distribution of the volumetric species. Low velocity regions near the square corners and transversal secondary flows are shown in several cross-sections along the streamwise direction at different instants. The results shed light on the three-dimensional characteristic of both the flow field and species distribution within a single square channel of the catalyst with respect to 0-1D approaches.

Altered subjective reward valuation among female heavy marijuana users.

PubMed

Hefner, Kathryn R; Starr, Mark J

2017-02-01

Maladaptive decision-making is a cardinal feature of drug use, contributing to ongoing use, and reflecting alterations in how drug users assess uncertain reward value. Accumulating evidence indicates the consequences of heavy marijuana use are worse for female versus male animals and humans, but research assessing sex differences in reward-related decision-making among marijuana users remains scarce. We examined sex differences in the subjective valuation of certain and uncertain rewards among heavy marijuana users (52; 26 male and 26 female) and controls (52; 26 male and 26 female). We offered male and female heavy marijuana users and controls monetary rewards of certain and uncertain (probabilistic) values. We measured how preferences for uncertain rewards varied by the objective value of those rewards, moderators of reward uncertainty, Marijuana Group and Sex. Men were more sensitive to changes in the objective value of uncertain rewards than women. However, this effect of Sex differed by Marijuana Group. Female heavy marijuana users were more sensitive to changes in uncertain reward value, particularly when the "stakes" were high (i.e., greater difference between potential uncertain rewards), than female controls. Female heavy marijuana users' sensitivity to changes in the value of high stakes uncertain rewards was comparable to male marijuana users and controls. In contrast, male marijuana users' sensitivity to changes in the value of high stakes uncertain rewards did not differ from male controls. These results suggest sex differences in sensitivity to high risk rewards may be one pathway contributing to severer consequences of heavy marijuana use among women. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Altered subjective reward valuation among female heavy marijuana users

PubMed Central

Hefner, Kathryn R.; Starr, Mark. J.

2016-01-01

Maladaptive decision-making is a cardinal feature of drug use, contributing to ongoing use, and reflecting alterations in how drug users assess uncertain reward value. Accumulating evidence indicates the consequences of heavy marijuana use are worse for female versus male animals and humans, but research assessing sex differences in reward-related decision-making among marijuana users remains scarce. We examined sex differences in the subjective valuation of certain and uncertain rewards among heavy marijuana users (52; 26 male and 26 female) and controls (52; 26 male and 26 female). We offered male and female heavy marijuana users and controls monetary rewards of certain and uncertain (probabilistic) values. We measured how preferences for uncertain rewards varied by the objective value of those rewards, moderators of reward uncertainty, marijuana use, and sex. Men were more sensitive to changes in the objective value of uncertain rewards than women. However, this effect of sex differed by marijuana group. Female heavy marijuana users were more sensitive to changes in uncertain reward value, particularly when the ‘stakes’ were high (i.e., greater difference between potential uncertain rewards), than female controls. Female heavy marijuana users’ sensitivity to changes in the value of high stakes uncertain rewards was comparable to male marijuana users and controls. In contrast, male marijuana users’ sensitivity to changes in the value of high stakes uncertain rewards did not differ from male controls. These results suggest sex differences in sensitivity to high risk rewards may be one pathway contributing to severer consequences of heavy marijuana use among women. PMID:27936816

Analysis on Voltage Profile of Distribution Network with Distributed Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Hua; Shi, Yujie; Yuan, Jianpu; An, Jiakun; Yang, Jianhua

2018-02-01

Penetration of distributed generation has some impacts on a distribution network in load flow, voltage profile, reliability, power loss and so on. After the impacts and the typical structures of the grid-connected distributed generation are analyzed, the back/forward sweep method of the load flow calculation of the distribution network is modelled including distributed generation. The voltage profiles of the distribution network affected by the installation location and the capacity of distributed generation are thoroughly investigated and simulated. The impacts on the voltage profiles are summarized and some suggestions to the installation location and the capacity of distributed generation are given correspondingly.

Streamline similarity method for flow distributions and shock losses at the impeller inlet of the centrifugal pump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zh.

2018-02-01

An analytical method is presented, which enables the non-uniform velocity and pressure distributions at the impeller inlet of a pump to be accurately computed. The analyses are based on the potential flow theory and the geometrical similarity of the streamline distribution along the leading edge of the impeller blades. The method is thus called streamline similarity method (SSM). The obtained geometrical form of the flow distribution is then simply described by the geometrical variable G( s) and the first structural constant G I . As clearly demonstrated and also validated by experiments, both the flow velocity and the pressure distributions at the impeller inlet are usually highly non-uniform. This knowledge is indispensible for impeller blade designs to fulfill the shockless inlet flow condition. By introducing the second structural constant G II , the paper also presents the simple and accurate computation of the shock loss, which occurs at the impeller inlet. The introduction of two structural constants contributes immensely to the enhancement of the computational accuracies. As further indicated, all computations presented in this paper can also be well applied to the non-uniform exit flow out of an impeller of the Francis turbine for accurately computing the related mean values.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zentgraf, Florian; Baum, Elias; Dreizler, Andreas

Planar particle image velocimetry (PIV) and tomographic PIV (TPIV) measurements are utilized to analyze turbulent statistical theory quantities and the instantaneous turbulence within a single-cylinder optical engine. Measurements are performed during the intake and mid-compression stroke at 800 and 1500 RPM. TPIV facilitates the evaluation of spatially resolved Reynolds stress tensor (RST) distributions, anisotropic Reynolds stress invariants, and instantaneous turbulent vortical structures. The RST analysis describes distributions of individual velocity fluctuation components that arise from unsteady turbulent flow behavior as well as cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV). A conditional analysis, for which instantaneous PIV images are sampled by their tumble center location,more » reveals that CCV and turbulence have similar contributions to RST distributions at the mean tumble center, but turbulence is dominant in regions peripheral to the tumble center. Analysis of the anisotropic Reynolds stress invariants reveals the spatial distribution of axisymmetric expansion, axisymmetric contraction, and 3D isotropy within the cylinder. Findings indicate that the mid-compression flow exhibits a higher tendency toward 3D isotropy than the intake flow. A novel post-processing algorithm is utilized to classify the geometry of instantaneous turbulent vortical structures and evaluate their frequency of occurrence within the cylinder. Findings are coupled with statistical theory quantities to provide a comprehensive understanding of the distribution of turbulent velocity components, the distribution of anisotropic states of turbulence, and compare the turbulent vortical flow distribution that is theoretically expected to what is experimentally observed. The analyses reveal requisites of important turbulent flow quantities and discern their sensitivity to the local flow topography and engine operation.« less

Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections.

PubMed

Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Vanclooster, Marnik

2016-02-01

Catchment flow regimes alteration is likely to be a prominent consequence of climate change projections in the Mediterranean. Here we explore the potential effects of climatic change on the flow regime of the Thau and the Chiba catchments which are located in Southern France and Northeastern Tunisia, respectively. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model is forced with projections from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) to assess changes and uncertainty in relevant hydrological indicators related to water balance, magnitude, frequency and timing of the flow between a reference (1971-2000) and future (2041-2071) periods. Results indicate that both catchments are likely to experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the future. Consequently, runoff and soil water content are projected to decrease whereas potential evapotranspiration is likely to increase in both catchments. Yet uncertain, the projected magnitudes of these changes are higher in the wet period than in the dry period. Analyses of extreme flow show similar trend in both catchments, projecting a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations. Further, significant increase in low flow frequency as a proxy for hydrological droughts is projected for both catchments but with higher uncertainty in the wet period than in the dry period. Although no changes in the average timing of maximum and minimum flow events for different flow durations are projected, substantial uncertainty remains in the hydrological projections. While the results in both catchments show consistent trend of change for most of the hydrologic indicators, the overall degree of alteration on the flow regime of the Chiba catchment is projected to be higher than that of the Thau catchment. The projected magnitudes of alteration as well as their associated uncertainty vary depending on the catchment characteristics and flow seasonality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flow- topography Interactions in the Vicinity of a Deep Ocean Island and a Ridge

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Flow- topography Interactions in the Vicinity of a Deep...flow around abrupt topography in operational Navy models. RELATED PROJECTS NRL FY17 6.2 New Start proposal (pending proposal), titled...Predictability of Flow Interacting with Abrupt Topography (FIAT)”; lead PI: Ana Rice, NRL-SSC. The objective of FIAT is to use observations to develop Navy

3D modelling of the flow of self-compacting concrete with or without steel fibres. Part I: slump flow test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deeb, R.; Kulasegaram, S.; Karihaloo, B. L.

2014-12-01

In part I of this two-part paper, a three-dimensional Lagrangian smooth particle hydrodynamics method has been used to model the flow of self-compacting concrete (SCC) with or without short steel fibres in the slump cone test. The constitutive behaviour of this non-Newtonian viscous fluid is described by a Bingham-type model. The 3D simulation of SCC without fibres is focused on the distribution of large aggregates (larger than or equal to 8 mm) during the flow. The simulation of self-compacting high- and ultra-high- performance concrete containing short steel fibres is focused on the distribution of fibres and their orientation during the flow. The simulation results show that the fibres and/or heavier aggregates do not precipitate but remain homogeneously distributed in the mix throughout the flow.

Source Distribution Method for Unsteady One-Dimensional Flows With Small Mass, Momentum, and Heat Addition and Small Area Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mirels, Harold

1959-01-01

A source distribution method is presented for obtaining flow perturbations due to small unsteady area variations, mass, momentum, and heat additions in a basic uniform (or piecewise uniform) one-dimensional flow. First, the perturbations due to an elemental area variation, mass, momentum, and heat addition are found. The general solution is then represented by a spatial and temporal distribution of these elemental (source) solutions. Emphasis is placed on discussing the physical nature of the flow phenomena. The method is illustrated by several examples. These include the determination of perturbations in basic flows consisting of (1) a shock propagating through a nonuniform tube, (2) a constant-velocity piston driving a shock, (3) ideal shock-tube flows, and (4) deflagrations initiated at a closed end. The method is particularly applicable for finding the perturbations due to relatively thin wall boundary layers.

Analytical and experimental investigation of flow fields of annular jets with and without swirling flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonson, M. R.; Smith, E. G.; Uhl, W. R.

1974-01-01

Analytical and experimental studies were performed to define the flowfield of annular jets, with and, without swirling flow. The analytical model treated configurations with variations of flow angularities, radius ratio, and swirl distributions. Swirl distributions characteristic of stator vanes and rotor blade rows, where the total pressure and swirl distributions are related were incorporated in the mathematical model. The experimental studies included tests of eleven nozzle models, both with and, without swirling exhaust flow. Flowfield surveys were obtained and used for comparison with the analytical model. This comparison of experimental and analytical studies served as the basis for evaluation of several empirical constants as required for application of the analysis to the general flow configuration. The analytical model developed during these studies is applicable to the evaluation of the flowfield and overall performance of the exhaust of statorless lift fan systems that contain various levels of exhaust swirl.

Illustration of cross flow of polystyrene melts through a coathanger die

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöppner, V.; Henke, B.

2015-05-01

To design an optimal coathanger die with a uniform flow rate distribution and low pressure drop, it is essential to understand the flow conditions in the die. This is important because the quality of the product is influenced by the flow velocity and the flow rate distribution. In extrusion dies, cross flows also occur in addition to the main flow, which flow perpendicular to the main flow. This results in pressure gradients in the extrusion direction, which have an influence on flow distribution and pressure drop in the die. In recent decades, quantitative representation and analysis of physical flow processes have made considerable progress in predicting the weather, developing drive technologies and designing aircraft using simulation methods and lab trials. Using the flow-line method, the flow is analyzed in flat film extrusion dies with a rectangular cross-section, in particular cross flows. The simplest method to visualize the flow is based on the measurement of obstacle orientation in the flow field by adding individual particles. A near-surface flow field can be visualized by using wool or textile yarns. By sticking thin, frayed at the ends of strands of wool surface that is to be examined cross flows, near-wall profiles of the flow and vortex and separation regions can be visualized. A further possibility is to add glass fibers and analyze the fiber orientation by microscopy and x-ray analysis. In this paper the influence of process parameters (e.g. melt temperatures and throughput) on cross flow and fiber orientation is described.

Modelling rapid flow response of a tile drained hillslope with explicit representation of preferential flow paths and consideration of equifinal model structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Julian; Zehe, Erwin

2010-05-01

Rapid water flow along spatially connected - often biologically mediated - flow paths of minimum flow resistance is widely acknowledged to play a key role in runoff generation at the hillslope and small catchment scales but also in the transport of solutes like agro chemicals and nutrients in cohesive soils. Especially at tile drained fields site connected vertical flow structures such as worm burrows, roots or shrinkage cracks act as short cuts allowing water flow to bypass the soil matrix. In the present study we propose a spatially explicit approach to represent worm burrows as connected structures of high conductivity and low retention capacity in a 2D physically model. With this approach tile drain discharge and preferential flow patterns in soil observed during the irrigation of a tile drained hillslope in the Weiherbach catchment were modelled. The model parameters derived from measurements and are considered to be uncertain. Given this uncertainty of key factors that organise flow and transport at tile drained sites the main objectives of the present studies are to shed light on the following three questions: 1. Does a simplified approach that explicitly represents worm burrows as continuous flow paths of small flow resistance and low retention properties in a 2D physically model allow successful reproduction of event flow response at a tile drained field site in the Weiherbach catchment? 2. Does the above described uncertainty in key factors cause equifinality i.e. are there several model structural setups that reproduce event flow response in an acceptable manner without compromising our physical understanding of the system? 3. If so, what are the key factors that have to be known at high accuracy to reduce the equifinality of model structures? The issue of equifinality is usually discussed in catchment modelling to indicate that often a large set of conceptual model parameter sets allows acceptable reproduction of the behaviour of the system of interest - in many cases catchment stream flow response. Beven and Binley (1992) suggest that these model structures should be considered to be equally likely to account for predictive uncertainty. In this study we show that the above outline approach allows successful prediction of the tile drain discharge and preferential flow patterns in soil observed during the irrigation of a tile drained hillslope in the Weiherbach catchment flow event. Strikingly we a found a considerable equifinality in the model structural setup, when key parameters such as the area density of worm burrows, their hydraulic conductivity and the conductivity of the tile drains were varied within the ranges of either our measurements or measurements reported in the literature. Thirteen different model setups yielded a normalised time-shifted Nash-Sutcliffe of more than 0.9, which means that more than 90% of the flow variability is explained by the model. Also the flow volumes were in good accordance and timing errors were less or equal than 20 min (which corresponds to two simulation output time steps). It is elaborated that this uncertainty/equifinality could be reduced when more precise data on initial states of the subsurface and on the drainage area of a single drainage tube could be made available. However, such data are currently most difficult to assess even at very well investigated site as the one that is dealt with here. We thus suggest non uniqueness of process based model structures seems thus to be an important factor causing predictive uncertainty at many sites where preferential flow dominates systems response. References Beven, K.J. and Binley, A.M., 1992. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrological Processes, 6, p.279-298.

Flow prediction over a transport multi-element high-lift system and comparison with flight measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vijgen, P. M. H. W.; Hardin, J. D.; Yip, L. P.

1992-01-01

Accurate prediction of surface-pressure distributions, merging boundary-layers, and separated-flow regions over multi-element high-lift airfoils is required to design advanced high-lift systems for efficient subsonic transport aircraft. The availability of detailed measurements of pressure distributions and both averaged and time-dependent boundary-layer flow parameters at flight Reynolds numbers is critical to evaluate computational methods and to model the turbulence structure for closure of the flow equations. Several detailed wind-tunnel measurements at subscale Reynolds numbers were conducted to obtain detailed flow information including the Reynolds-stress component. As part of a subsonic-transport high-lift research program, flight experiments are conducted using the NASA-Langley B737-100 research aircraft to obtain detailed flow characteristics for support of computational and wind-tunnel efforts. Planned flight measurements include pressure distributions at several spanwise locations, boundary-layer transition and separation locations, surface skin friction, as well as boundary-layer profiles and Reynolds stresses in adverse pressure-gradient flow.

Backflow-free catheters for efficient and safe convection-enhanced delivery of therapeutics.

PubMed

Lueshen, Eric; Tangen, Kevin; Mehta, Ankit I; Linninger, Andreas

2017-07-01

Convection-enhanced delivery (CED) is an invasive drug delivery technique used to target specific regions of the brain for the treatment of cancer and neurodegenerative diseases while bypassing the blood-brain barrier. In order to prevent the possibility of backflow, low volumetric flow rates are applied which limit the achievable drug distribution volumes from CED. This can render CED treatment ineffective since a small convective flow produces narrow drug distribution inside the treatment region. Novel catheter designs and CED protocols are needed to improve the drug distribution inside the treatment region. This is especially important when administering toxic chemotherapeutics which could adversely affect other organs if backflow occurred and these drugs entered the circulating blood stream. In order to help elucidate the causes of backflow and to design backflow-free catheters, we have studied the impact that microfluid flow has on deformable brain phantom gels experimentally as well as numerically. We found that fluid injections into porous media have considerable effects on local transport properties such as porosity and hydraulic conductivity. These phenomena not only alter the bulk flow velocity distribution of the microfluid flow due to the changing porosity, but significantly modify flow direction and even volumetric flow distribution due to induced local hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. These studies led us to the development of novel backflow-free catheters with safe volumetric flow rates up to 10 µL/min. The catheter designs, numerical simulations and experimental results are described throughout this article. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stratification of a two-phase monodisperse system in a plane laminar flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedoseev, V. B., E-mail: vbfedoseev@yandex.ru

2016-05-15

A thermodynamic approach is used to describe the distribution of particles of a disperse phase in a plane laminar flow. The effect of the density, shape, and velocity of disperse particles in the flow is considered. Conditions are described under which various modes of stratification of the flow (near-wall, central, intermediate, and multilayer modes) arise. The equilibrium distributions obtained are self-similar; this allows one to compare the behavior of colloidal, highly disperse, coarsely disperse, and coarse-grain systems for various shear velocities and flow widths.

Flow coating apparatus and method of coating

DOEpatents

Hanumanthu, Ramasubrahmaniam; Neyman, Patrick; MacDonald, Niles; Brophy, Brenor; Kopczynski, Kevin; Nair, Wood

2014-03-11

Disclosed is a flow coating apparatus, comprising a slot that can dispense a coating material in an approximately uniform manner along a distribution blade that increases uniformity by means of surface tension and transfers the uniform flow of coating material onto an inclined substrate such as for example glass, solar panels, windows or part of an electronic display. Also disclosed is a method of flow coating a substrate using the apparatus such that the substrate is positioned correctly relative to the distribution blade, a pre-wetting step is completed where both the blade and substrate are completed wetted with a pre-wet solution prior to dispensing of the coating material onto the distribution blade from the slot and hence onto the substrate. Thereafter the substrate is removed from the distribution blade and allowed to dry, thereby forming a coating.

In situ potential distribution measurement in an all-vanadium flow battery.

PubMed

Liu, Qinghua; Turhan, Ahmet; Zawodzinski, Thomas A; Mench, Matthew M

2013-07-18

An experimental method for measurement of local redox potential within multilayer electrodes was developed and applied to all-vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs). Through-plane measurement at the positive side reveals several important phenomena including potential distribution, concentration distribution of active species and the predominant reaction location within the porous carbon electrodes.

78 FR 1934 - Petition for Waiver of Compliance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-09

... brake pipe air flow from the present rule of 60 cubic feet per minute (CFM) to 90 CFM for distributed... higher air flow of 90 CFM on distributed power trains for the past 2 years. Recently, BNSF conducted demonstration testing in Great Falls, MT, for air flows between 60 and 90 CFM; a summary of which has been...

Neural basis of uncertain cue processing in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Zhang, Meng; Ma, Chao; Luo, Yanyan; Li, Ji; Li, Qingwei; Liu, Yijun; Ding, Cody; Qiu, Jiang

2016-02-19

Individuals with high trait anxiety form a non-clinical group with a predisposition for an anxiety-related bias in emotional and cognitive processing that is considered by some to be a prerequisite for psychiatric disorders. Anxious individuals tend to experience more worry under uncertainty, and processing uncertain information is an important, but often overlooked factor in anxiety. So, we decided to explore the brain correlates of processing uncertain information in individuals with high trait anxiety using the learn-test paradigm. Behaviorally, the percentages on memory test and the likelihood ratios of identifying novel stimuli under uncertainty were similar to the certain fear condition, but different from the certain neutral condition. The brain results showed that the visual cortex, bilateral fusiform gyrus, and right parahippocampal gyrus were active during the processing of uncertain cues. Moreover, we found that trait anxiety was positively correlated with the BOLD signal of the right parahippocampal gyrus during the processing of uncertain cues. No significant results were found in the amygdala during uncertain cue processing. These results suggest that memory retrieval is associated with uncertain cue processing, which is underpinned by over-activation of the right parahippocampal gyrus, in individuals with high trait anxiety.

Research on reverse logistics location under uncertainty environment based on grey prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhenqiang, Bao; Congwei, Zhu; Yuqin, Zhao; Quanke, Pan

This article constructs reverse logistic network based on uncertain environment, integrates the reverse logistics network and distribution network, and forms a closed network. An optimization model based on cost is established to help intermediate center, manufacturing center and remanufacturing center make location decision. A gray model GM (1, 1) is used to predict the product holdings of the collection points, and then prediction results are carried into the cost optimization model and a solution is got. Finally, an example is given to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

A Real Options Approach to Quantity and Cost Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

demand • Asymmetric over- and under-buy penalties • Non-negligible inventory costs • Cost of money (non-zero WACC ) • Uncertain end of support date...ROA for WACC of 12%. The optimum life- cycle buy size distribution for the example case from DES and ROA for WACC of 3%. ~1 part difference...of a variable end-of-support (EOS) date – A fundamental problem that needs to be addressed is how to set the discount factor ( WACC ) for the

Influence of capillary barrier effect on biogas distribution at the base of passive methane oxidation biosystems: Parametric study.

PubMed

Ahoughalandari, Bahar; Cabral, Alexandre R

2017-05-01

The efficiency of methane oxidation in passive methane oxidation biosystems (PMOBs) is influenced by, among other things, the intensity and distribution of the CH 4 loading at the base of the methane oxidation layer (MOL). Both the intensity and distribution are affected by the capillary barrier that results from the superposition of the two materials constituting the PMOB, namely the MOL and the gas distribution layer (GDL). The effect of capillary barriers on the unsaturated flow of water has been well documented in the literature. However, its effect on gas flow through PMOBs is still poorly documented. In this study, sets of numerical simulations were performed to evaluate the effect of unsaturated hydraulic characteristics of the MOL material on the value and distribution of moisture and hence, the ease and uniformity in the distribution of the upward flow of biogas along the GDL-MOL interface. The unsaturated hydraulic parameters of the materials used to construct the experimental field plot at the St-Nicephore landfill (Quebec, Canada) were adopted to build the reference simulation of the parametric study. The behavior of the upward flow of biogas for this particular material was analyzed based on its gas intrinsic permeability function, which was obtained in the laboratory. The parameters that most influenced the distribution and the ease of biogas flow at the base of the MOL were the saturated hydraulic conductivity and pore size distribution of the MOL material, whose effects were intensified as the slope of the interface increased. The effect of initial dry density was also assessed herein. Selection of the MOL material must be made bearing in mind that these three parameters are key in the effort to prevent unwanted restriction in the upward flow of biogas, which may result in the redirection of biogas towards the top of the slope, leading to high CH 4 fluxes (hotspots). In a well-designed PMOB, upward flow of biogas across the GDL-MOL interface is unrestricted and moisture distribution is uniform. This paper tries to show how to obtain this. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of unsteady flow simulation of backward impeller with non-uniform casing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swe, War War Min; Morimatsu, Hiroya; Hayashi, Hidechito; Okumura, Tetsuya; Oda, Ippei

2017-06-01

The flow characteristics of the centrifugal fans with different blade outlet angles are basically discussed on steady and unsteady simulations for a rectangular casing fan. The blade outlet angles of the impellers are 35° and 25° respectively. The unsteady flow behavior in the passage of the impeller 35° is quite different from that in the steady flow behavior. The large flow separation occurs in the steady flow field and unsteady flow field of the impeller 35°, the flow distribution in the circumferential direction varies remarkably and the flow separation on the blade occurs only at the back region of the fan; but the steady flow behavior in the impeller 25° is almost consistent with the unsteady flow behavior, the flow distribution of the circumferential direction doesn't vary much and the flow separation on the blade hardly occurs. When the circumferential variation of the flow in the impeller is large, the steady flow simulation is not coincident to the unsteady flow simulation.

Numerical Investigation of Fuel Distribution Effect on Flow and Temperature Field in a Heavy Duty Gas Turbine Combustor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Xiaowen; Xing, Li; Yin, Hong; Tian, Feng; Zhang, Qun

2018-03-01

Multiple-swirlers structure is commonly adopted for combustion design strategy in heavy duty gas turbine. The multiple-swirlers structure might shorten the flame brush length and reduce emissions. In engineering application, small amount of gas fuel is distributed for non-premixed combustion as a pilot flame while most fuel is supplied to main burner for premixed combustion. The effect of fuel distribution on the flow and temperature field related to the combustor performance is a significant issue. This paper investigates the fuel distribution effect on the combustor performance by adjusting the pilot/main burner fuel percentage. Five pilot fuel distribution schemes are considered including 3 %, 5 %, 7 %, 10 % and 13 %. Altogether five pilot fuel distribution schemes are computed and deliberately examined. The flow field and temperature field are compared, especially on the multiple-swirlers flow field. Computational results show that there is the optimum value for the base load of combustion condition. The pilot fuel percentage curve is calculated to optimize the combustion operation. Under the combustor structure and fuel distribution scheme, the combustion achieves high efficiency with acceptable OTDF and low NOX emission. Besides, the CO emission is also presented.

Linear Power-Flow Models in Multiphase Distribution Networks: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Andrey; Dall'Anese, Emiliano

This paper considers multiphase unbalanced distribution systems and develops approximate power-flow models where bus-voltages, line-currents, and powers at the point of common coupling are linearly related to the nodal net power injections. The linearization approach is grounded on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC power-flow equations, and it is applicable to distribution systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. The proposed linear models can facilitate the development of computationally-affordable optimization and control applications -- frommore » advanced distribution management systems settings to online and distributed optimization routines. Performance of the proposed models is evaluated on different test feeders.« less

Adaptive route choice modeling in uncertain traffic networks with real-time information.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study travelers' route choice behavior in uncertain traffic networks : with real-time information. The research is motivated by two observations of the traffic system: 1) : the system is inherently uncertain with r...

Study on the flow nonuniformity in a high capacity Stirling pulse tube cryocooler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, X.; Zhi, X.; Duan, C.; Jiang, X.; Qiu, L.; Li, J.

2017-12-01

High capacity Stirling-type pulse tube cryocoolers (SPTC) have promising applications in high temperature superconductive motor and gas liquefaction. However, with the increase of cooling capacity, its performance deviates from well-accepted one-dimensional model simulation, such as Sage and Regen, mainly due to the strong field nonuniformity. In this study, several flow straighteners placed at both ends of the pulse tube are investigated to improve the flow distribution. A two-dimensional model of the pulse tube based on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method has been built to study the flow distribution of the pulse tube with different flow straighteners including copper screens, copper slots, taper transition and taper stainless slot. A SPTC set-up which has more than one hundred Watts cooling power at 80 K has been built and tested. The flow straighteners mentioned above have been applied and tested. The results show that with the best flow straightener the cooling performance of the SPTC can be significantly improved. Both CFD simulation and experiment show that the straighteners have impacts on the flow distribution and the performance of the high capacity SPTC.

Influence of pulsatile flow on LDL transport in the arterial wall.

PubMed

Sun, Nanfeng; Wood, Nigel B; Hughes, Alun D; Thom, Simon A M; Xu, X Yun

2007-10-01

The accumulation of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is one of the important factors in atherogenesis. Two different time scales may influence LDL transport in vivo: (1) LDL transport is coupled to blood flow with a pulse cycle of around 1 s in humans; (2) LDL transport within the arterial wall is mediated by transmural flow in the order of 10(-8) m/s. Most existing models have assumed steady flow conditions and overlooked the interactions between physical phenomena with different time scales. The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of pulsatile flow on LDL transport and examine the validity of steady flow assumption. The effect of pulsatile flow on transmural transport was incorporated by using a lumen-free cyclic (LFC) and a lumen-free time-averaged (LFTA) procedures. It is found that the steady flow simulation predicted a focal distribution in the post-stenotic region, differing from the diffuse distribution pattern produced by the pulsatile flow simulation. The LFTA procedure, in which time-averaged shear-dependent transport properties calculated from instantaneous wall shear stress (WSS) were used, predicted a similar distribution pattern to the LFC simulations. We conclude that the steady flow assumption is inadequate and instantaneous hemodynamic conditions have important influence on LDL transmural transport in arterial geometries with disturbed and complicated flow patterns.

Where is the Most Likely Location Where the Secondary Interstellar Oxygen Atoms Are Created Around the Heliosheath?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Kucharek, H.; Szabo, A.; Paschalidis, N.; Grocer, A.; Jones, S.

2017-12-01

The secondary component of the interstellar neutral gas flow is originated from charge exchange between the undisturbed primary interstellar neutrals and the ions that have been deflected as they approach the heliopause. The secondary neutrals that are emitted from the interstellar ion flow through charge exchange carry information on the diverted flow and a fraction of them can travel to the Sun. Therefore, the secondary component of the interstellar neutrals is an excellent diagnostic tool to provide important information to constrain the shape of the heliopause. The presence of the secondary neutrals was predicted in the global heliospheric models and they are observed by Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) at Earth's orbit. Using the IBEX observations of neutral helium atoms, Kubiak et al. (2016, ApJS, 223, 25) approximated the parent distribution of the secondary interstellar He atoms (so-called Warm Breeze) with a homogeneous Maxwellian distribution function. Park et al. (2016, ApJ, 833, 130) analyzed IBEX observations of secondary interstellar helium and oxygen distributions at Earth's orbit. Lee et al. (2012, ApJS, 198, 10) constructed the heliospheric phase-space distribution function of an interstellar gas species in the Earth frame as a function of solar longitude. In this distribution, the authors assume that the distribution is a drifting Maxwellian at large distances from the Sun. In this study, we assume that a fraction of the secondary neutral atoms has a velocity vector toward the Sun and they can be described as a flow with a drifting Maxwellian distribution near the heliopause. Unlike the primary interstellar gas flow, the distribution of the secondary neutrals is expected to have a wide width and their bulk speeds are slower than the bulk speed of the primary interstellar gas flow. We compare Lee's distribution and IBEX observations of neutral oxygen atoms and then estimate the most likely direction where the secondary interstellar oxygen atoms are created near the heliopause.

State feedback integral control for a rotary direct drive servo valve using a Lyapunov function approach.

PubMed

Yu, Jue; Zhuang, Jian; Yu, Dehong

2015-01-01

This paper concerns a state feedback integral control using a Lyapunov function approach for a rotary direct drive servo valve (RDDV) while considering parameter uncertainties. Modeling of this RDDV servovalve reveals that its mechanical performance is deeply influenced by friction torques and flow torques; however, these torques are uncertain and mutable due to the nature of fluid flow. To eliminate load resistance and to achieve satisfactory position responses, this paper develops a state feedback control that integrates an integral action and a Lyapunov function. The integral action is introduced to address the nonzero steady-state error; in particular, the Lyapunov function is employed to improve control robustness by adjusting the varying parameters within their value ranges. This new controller also has the advantages of simple structure and ease of implementation. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed controller can achieve higher control accuracy and stronger robustness. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Task-evoked BOLD responses are normal in areas of diaschisis after stroke.

PubMed

Fair, Damien A; Snyder, Abraham Z; Connor, Lisa Tabor; Nardos, Binyam; Corbetta, Maurizio

2009-01-01

Cerebral infarction can cause diaschisis, a reduction of blood flow and metabolism in areas of the cortex distant from the site of the lesion. Although the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) signal is increasingly used to examine the neural correlates of recovery in stroke, its reliability in areas of diaschisis is uncertain. The effect of chronic diaschisis as measured by resting positron emission tomography on task-evoked BOLD responses during word-stem completion in a block design fMRI study was examined in 3 patients, 6 months after a single left hemisphere stroke involving the inferior frontal gyrus and operculum. The BOLD responses were minimally affected in areas of chronic diaschisis. Within the confines of this study, the mechanism underlying the BOLD signal, which includes a mismatch between neuronally driven increases in blood flow and a corresponding increase in oxygen use, appears to be intact in areas of chronic diaschisis.

An integrated environmental tracer approach to characterizing groundwater circulation in a mountain block

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manning, Andrew H.; Solomon, D. Kip

2005-01-01

The subsurface transfer of water from a mountain block to an adjacent basin (mountain block recharge (MBR)) is a commonly invoked mechanism of recharge to intermountain basins. However, MBR estimates are highly uncertain. We present an approach to characterize bulk fluid circulation in a mountain block and thus MBR that utilizes environmental tracers from the basin aquifer. Noble gas recharge temperatures, groundwater ages, and temperature data combined with heat and fluid flow modeling are used to identify clearly improbable flow regimes in the southeastern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, and adjacent Wasatch Mountains. The range of possible MBR rates is reduced by 70%. Derived MBR rates (5.5–12.6 × 104 m3 d−1) are on the same order of magnitude as previous large estimates, indicating that significant MBR to intermountain basins is plausible. However, derived rates are 50–100% of the lowest previous estimate, meaning total recharge is probably less than previously thought.

Optimizing decentralized production-distribution planning problem in a multi-period supply chain network under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nourifar, Raheleh; Mahdavi, Iraj; Mahdavi-Amiri, Nezam; Paydar, Mohammad Mahdi

2017-09-01

Decentralized supply chain management is found to be significantly relevant in today's competitive markets. Production and distribution planning is posed as an important optimization problem in supply chain networks. Here, we propose a multi-period decentralized supply chain network model with uncertainty. The imprecision related to uncertain parameters like demand and price of the final product is appropriated with stochastic and fuzzy numbers. We provide mathematical formulation of the problem as a bi-level mixed integer linear programming model. Due to problem's convolution, a structure to solve is developed that incorporates a novel heuristic algorithm based on Kth-best algorithm, fuzzy approach and chance constraint approach. Ultimately, a numerical example is constructed and worked through to demonstrate applicability of the optimization model. A sensitivity analysis is also made.

A new species of Liolaemus related to L. nigroviridis from the Andean highlands of Central Chile (Iguania, Liolaemidae)

PubMed Central

Troncoso-Palacios, Jaime; Elorza, Alvaro A.; Puas, German I.; Alfaro-Pardo, Edmundo

2016-01-01

Abstract The Liolaemus nigroviridis group is a clade of highland lizards endemic to Chile. These species are distributed from northern to central Chile, and currently there are no cases of sympatric distribution. This study describes a new species, Liolaemus uniformis sp. n., from this group, and provides a detailed morphological characterization and mitochondrial phylogeny using cytochrome-b. Liolaemus uniformis was found in sympatry with Liolaemus nigroviridis but noticeably differed in size, scalation, and markedly in the color pattern, without sexual dichromatism. This new species has probably been confused with Liolaemus monticola and Liolaemus bellii, both of which do not belong to the nigroviridis group. The taxonomic issues of this group that remain uncertain are also discussed. PMID:26877688

Experimental heat transfer and flow results of a chordwise-finned turbine vane with impingement, film, and convection cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gauntner, J. W.; Lane, J. M.; Dengler, R. P.; Hickel, R. O.

1972-01-01

Experimental heat transfer data are presented for a vane tested in a turbojet engine at turbine inlet gas temperatures to 1644 K (2500 F), coolant temperatures to 700 K (800 F), and coolant-to-gas flow ratios to 0.187. Methods are presented for correlating heat transfer data and obtaining coolant flow distribution through the vane. Calculated and measured coolant flow distributions and vane metal temperatures are compared.

Probability density functions for use when calculating standardised drought indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svensson, Cecilia; Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Hannaford, Jamie

2015-04-01

Time series of drought indices like the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and standardised flow index (SFI) require a statistical probability density function to be fitted to the observed (generally monthly) precipitation and river flow data. Once fitted, the quantiles are transformed to a Normal distribution with mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1. These transformed data are the SPI/SFI, which are widely used in drought studies, including for drought monitoring and early warning applications. Different distributions were fitted to rainfall and river flow data accumulated over 1, 3, 6 and 12 months for 121 catchments in the United Kingdom. These catchments represent a range of catchment characteristics in a mid-latitude climate. Both rainfall and river flow data have a lower bound at 0, as rains and flows cannot be negative. Their empirical distributions also tend to have positive skewness, and therefore the Gamma distribution has often been a natural and suitable choice for describing the data statistically. However, after transformation of the data to Normal distributions to obtain the SPIs and SFIs for the 121 catchments, the distributions are rejected in 11% and 19% of cases, respectively, by the Shapiro-Wilk test. Three-parameter distributions traditionally used in hydrological applications, such as the Pearson type 3 for rainfall and the Generalised Logistic and Generalised Extreme Value distributions for river flow, tend to make the transformed data fit better, with rejection rates of 5% or less. However, none of these three-parameter distributions have a lower bound at zero. This means that the lower tail of the fitted distribution may potentially go below zero, which would result in a lower limit to the calculated SPI and SFI values (as observations can never reach into this lower tail of the theoretical distribution). The Tweedie distribution can overcome the problems found when using either the Gamma or the above three-parameter distributions. The Tweedie is a three-parameter distribution which includes the Gamma distribution as a special case. It is bounded below at zero and has enough flexibility to fit most behaviours observed in the data. It does not always outperform the three-parameter distributions, but the rejection rates are similar. In addition, for certain parameter values the Tweedie distribution has a positive mass at zero, which means that ephemeral streams and months with zero rainfall can be modelled. It holds potential for wider application in drought studies in other climates and types of catchment.

Flow distribution during infusion of UW and HTK solution in anaesthetised rats.

PubMed

Jansson, Leif; Carlsson, Per-Ola; Bodin, Birgitta; Källskog, Orjan

2011-06-01

Organ transplantation necessitates the use of preservation solutions to maintain the integrity of the organs during retrieval. The aim of this study was to investigate the flow distribution in abdominal organs in rats during acute infusion of preservation solution. Microspheres were used to estimate the distribution of flow in the pancreas, duodenum, ileum, colon, liver, kidneys and lungs in untreated Wistar-Furth rats and in animals with an opened abdominal cavity and catheterised aorta. Some animals were infused by free flow of 5 ml of UW, HTK or Ringer solution containing microspheres at a pressure of 100 cm H(2)O through an intra-aortic catheter. Opening of the abdominal cavity did not affect any of the organ blood flow values. However, the fraction of total pancreatic blood flow diverted through the islets increased. During infusion of microsphere-containing UW, HTK or Ringer solution, splanchnic and renal organ flow values, represented by microsphere contents, were similar. The fraction of microspheres found in the islets was lower in UW-infused rats. The number of microspheres present in the lungs or liver was very low, suggesting that shunting was negligible. Infusion of HTK and UW solution into anaesthetised rats results in a flow distribution which is similar to that in normal animals in most abdominal organs, but there is a reduction in islet blood perfusion by UW but not HTK solution.

Tube Radial Distribution Flow Separation in a Microchannel Using an Ionic Liquid Aqueous Two-Phase System Based on Phase Separation Multi-Phase Flow.

PubMed

Nagatani, Kosuke; Shihata, Yoshinori; Matsushita, Takahiro; Tsukagoshi, Kazuhiko

2016-01-01

Ionic liquid aqueous two-phase systems were delivered into a capillary tube to achieve tube radial distribution flow (TRDF) or annular flow in a microspace. The phase diagram, viscosity of the phases, and TRDF image of the 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride and NaOH system were examined. The TRDF was formed with inner ionic liquid-rich and outer ionic liquid-poor phases in the capillary tube. The phase configuration was explained using the viscous dissipation principle. We also examined the distribution of rhodamine B in a three-branched microchannel on a microchip with ionic liquid aqueous two-phase systems for the first time.

Effect of horizontal heat and fluid flow on the vertical temperature distribution in a semiconfining layer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Ning; Ge, Shemin

1996-01-01

By including the constant flow of heat and fluid in the horizontal direction, we develop an analytical solution for the vertical temperature distribution within the semiconfining layer of a typical aquifer system. The solution is an extension of the previous one-dimensional theory by Bredehoeft and Papadopulos [1965]. It provides a quantitative tool for analyzing the uncertainty of the horizontal heat and fluid flow. The analytical results demonstrate that horizontal flow of heat and fluid, if at values much smaller than those of the vertical, has a negligible effect on the vertical temperature distribution but becomes significant when it is comparable to the vertical.

Injection flow during steam condensation in silicon microchannels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Huiying; Yu, Mengmeng; Cheng, Ping; Wu, Xinyu

2007-08-01

An experimental investigation with the combined use of visualization and measurement techniques was performed on flow pattern transitions and wall temperature distributions in the condensation of steam in silicon microchannels. Three sets of trapezoidal silicon microchannels, having hydraulic diameters of 53.0 µm, 77.5 µm and 128.5 µm, respectively, were tested under different flow and cooling conditions. It was found that during the transitions from the annular flow to the slug/bubbly flow, a peculiar flow pattern injection flow appeared in silicon microchannels. The location at which the injection flow occurred was dependent on the Reynolds number, condensation number and hydraulic diameter. With increase in the Reynolds number, or decrease in the condensation number and hydraulic diameter, the injection flow moved towards the channel outlet. Based on the experimental results, a dimensionless correlation for the location of injection flow in functions of the Reynolds number, condensation number and hydraulic diameter was proposed for the first time. This correlation can be used to determine the annular flow zone and the slug/bubbly flow zone, and further to determine the dominating condensation flow pattern in silicon microchannels. Wall temperature distributions were also explored in this paper. It was found that near the injection flow, wall temperatures have a rapid decrease in the flow direction, while upstream and downstream far away from the injection flow, wall temperatures decreased mildly. Thus, the location of injection flow can also be determined based on the wall temperature distributions. The results presented in this paper help us to better understand the condensation flow and heat transfer in silicon microchannels.

Local viscosity distribution in bifurcating microfluidic blood flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaliviotis, E.; Sherwood, J. M.; Balabani, S.

2018-03-01

The red blood cell (RBC) aggregation phenomenon is majorly responsible for the non-Newtonian nature of blood, influencing the blood flow characteristics in the microvasculature. Of considerable interest is the behaviour of the fluid at the bifurcating regions. In vitro experiments, using microchannels, have shown that RBC aggregation, at certain flow conditions, affects the bluntness and skewness of the velocity profile, the local RBC concentration, and the cell-depleted layer at the channel walls. In addition, the developed RBC aggregates appear unevenly distributed in the outlets of these channels depending on their spatial distribution in the feeding branch, and on the flow conditions in the outlet branches. In the present work, constitutive equations of blood viscosity, from earlier work of the authors, are applied to flows in a T-type bifurcating microchannel to examine the local viscosity characteristics. Viscosity maps are derived for various flow distributions in the outlet branches of the channel, and the location of maximum viscosity magnitude is obtained. The viscosity does not appear significantly elevated in the branches of lower flow rate as would be expected on the basis of the low shear therein, and the maximum magnitude appears in the vicinity of the junction, and towards the side of the outlet branch with the higher flow rate. The study demonstrates that in the branches of lower flow rate, the local viscosity is also low, helping us to explain why the effects of physiological red blood cell aggregation have no adverse effects in terms of in vivo vascular resistance.

Using noble gas tracers to constrain a groundwater flow model with recharge elevations: A novel approach for mountainous terrain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Jessica M.; Gleeson, Tom; Manning, Andrew H.; Mayer, K. Ulrich

2015-01-01

Environmental tracers provide information on groundwater age, recharge conditions, and flow processes which can be helpful for evaluating groundwater sustainability and vulnerability. Dissolved noble gas data have proven particularly useful in mountainous terrain because they can be used to determine recharge elevation. However, tracer-derived recharge elevations have not been utilized as calibration targets for numerical groundwater flow models. Herein, we constrain and calibrate a regional groundwater flow model with noble-gas-derived recharge elevations for the first time. Tritium and noble gas tracer results improved the site conceptual model by identifying a previously uncertain contribution of mountain block recharge from the Coast Mountains to an alluvial coastal aquifer in humid southwestern British Columbia. The revised conceptual model was integrated into a three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model and calibrated to hydraulic head data in addition to recharge elevations estimated from noble gas recharge temperatures. Recharge elevations proved to be imperative for constraining hydraulic conductivity, recharge location, and bedrock geometry, and thus minimizing model nonuniqueness. Results indicate that 45% of recharge to the aquifer is mountain block recharge. A similar match between measured and modeled heads was achieved in a second numerical model that excludes the mountain block (no mountain block recharge), demonstrating that hydraulic head data alone are incapable of quantifying mountain block recharge. This result has significant implications for understanding and managing source water protection in recharge areas, potential effects of climate change, the overall water budget, and ultimately ensuring groundwater sustainability.

A flow resistance model for assessing the impact of vegetation on flood routing mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katul, Gabriel G.; Poggi, Davide; Ridolfi, Luca

2011-08-01

The specification of a flow resistance factor to account for vegetative effects in the Saint-Venant equation (SVE) remains uncertain and is a subject of active research in flood routing mechanics. Here, an analytical model for the flow resistance factor is proposed for submerged vegetation, where the water depth is commensurate with the canopy height and the roughness Reynolds number is sufficiently large so as to ignore viscous effects. The analytical model predicts that the resistance factor varies with three canonical length scales: the adjustment length scale that depends on the foliage drag and leaf area density, the canopy height, and the water level. These length scales can reasonably be inferred from a range of remote sensing products making the proposed flow resistance model eminently suitable for operational flood routing. Despite the numerous simplifications, agreement between measured and modeled resistance factors and bulk velocities is reasonable across a range of experimental and field studies. The proposed model asymptotically recovers the flow resistance formulation when the water depth greatly exceeds the canopy height. This analytical treatment provides a unifying framework that links the resistance factor to a number of concepts and length scales already in use to describe canopy turbulence. The implications of the coupling between the resistance factor and the water depth on solutions to the SVE are explored via a case study, which shows a reasonable match between empirical design standard and theoretical predictions.

Trends in surface-water quality during implementation of best-management practices in Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koerkle, Edward H.

2000-01-01

Analyses of water samples collected over a 5-year period (1993-98) in the Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins during implementation of agricultural best-management practices (BMP’s) indicate statistically significant trends in the concentrations of several nutrient species and in nonfilterable residue (suspended solids). The strongest trends identified were those indicated by a more than 50- percent decrease in the flow-adjusted concentrations of total and dissolved phosphorus and total residue in base flow in the two streams. Analyses of stormflow samples showed a 31-percent decrease in the flow-adjusted concentration of total phosphorus in Mill Creek and a 54-percent decrease in total nonfilterable residue in Muddy Run. A 58-percent increase in the flow-adjusted concentration of total ammonia nitrogen in stormflow was found at Muddy Run.Although the effects of a specific BMP on the indicated trends is uncertain, results of statistical trend tests of the data suggest that stream fencing, possibly in concert with other practices, such as stream crossings for livestock, barnyard runoff control, manure-storage facilities, and rotational grazing, was effective in improving water quality during base flow and probably low to moderate stormflow conditions. Additional improvements in water quality in the Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins seems likely as the implementation of BMP’s is expected to continue. Thus, the full effect of BMP implementation in the two basins may not be observed for some time.

Linear models for sound from supersonic reacting mixing layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chary, P. Shivakanth; Samanta, Arnab

2016-12-01

We perform a linearized reduced-order modeling of the aeroacoustic sound sources in supersonic reacting mixing layers to explore their sensitivities to some of the flow parameters in radiating sound. Specifically, we investigate the role of outer modes as the effective flow compressibility is raised, when some of these are expected to dominate over the traditional Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) -type central mode. Although the outer modes are known to be of lesser importance in the near-field mixing, how these radiate to the far-field is uncertain, on which we focus. On keeping the flow compressibility fixed, the outer modes are realized via biasing the respective mean densities of the fast (oxidizer) or slow (fuel) side. Here the mean flows are laminar solutions of two-dimensional compressible boundary layers with an imposed composite (turbulent) spreading rate, which we show to significantly alter the growth of instability waves by saturating them earlier, similar to in nonlinear calculations, achieved here via solving the linear parabolized stability equations. As the flow parameters are varied, instability of the slow modes is shown to be more sensitive to heat release, potentially exceeding equivalent central modes, as these modes yield relatively compact sound sources with lesser spreading of the mixing layer, when compared to the corresponding fast modes. In contrast, the radiated sound seems to be relatively unaffected when the mixture equivalence ratio is varied, except for a lean mixture which is shown to yield a pronounced effect on the slow mode radiation by reducing its modal growth.

Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

2017-02-01

Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Optimization of a new flow design for solid oxide cells using computational fluid dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duhn, Jakob Dragsbæk; Jensen, Anker Degn; Wedel, Stig; Wix, Christian

2016-12-01

Design of a gas distributor to distribute gas flow into parallel channels for Solid Oxide Cells (SOC) is optimized, with respect to flow distribution, using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling. The CFD model is based on a 3d geometric model and the optimized structural parameters include the width of the channels in the gas distributor and the area in front of the parallel channels. The flow of the optimized design is found to have a flow uniformity index value of 0.978. The effects of deviations from the assumptions used in the modelling (isothermal and non-reacting flow) are evaluated and it is found that a temperature gradient along the parallel channels does not affect the flow uniformity, whereas a temperature difference between the channels does. The impact of the flow distribution on the maximum obtainable conversion during operation is also investigated and the obtainable overall conversion is found to be directly proportional to the flow uniformity. Finally the effect of manufacturing errors is investigated. The design is shown to be robust towards deviations from design dimensions of at least ±0.1 mm which is well within obtainable tolerances.

Distributed flow sensing for closed-loop speed control of a flexible fish robot.

PubMed

Zhang, Feitian; Lagor, Francis D; Yeo, Derrick; Washington, Patrick; Paley, Derek A

2015-10-23

Flexibility plays an important role in fish behavior by enabling high maneuverability for predator avoidance and swimming in turbulent flow. This paper presents a novel flexible fish robot equipped with distributed pressure sensors for flow sensing. The body of the robot is molded from soft, hyperelastic material, which provides flexibility. Its Joukowski-foil shape is conducive to modeling the fluid analytically. A quasi-steady potential-flow model is adopted for real-time flow estimation, whereas a discrete-time vortex-shedding flow model is used for higher-fidelity simulation. The dynamics for the flexible fish robot yield a reduced model for one-dimensional swimming. A recursive Bayesian filter assimilates pressure measurements to estimate flow speed, angle of attack, and foil camber. The closed-loop speed-control strategy combines an inverse-mapping feedforward controller based on an average model derived for periodic actuation of angle-of-attack and a proportional-integral feedback controller utilizing the estimated flow information. Simulation and experimental results are presented to show the effectiveness of the estimation and control strategy. The paper provides a systematic approach to distributed flow sensing for closed-loop speed control of a flexible fish robot by regulating the flapping amplitude.

Imaging water velocity and volume fraction distributions in water continuous multiphase flows using inductive flow tomography and electrical resistance tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Yiqing; Lucas, Gary P.

2017-05-01

This paper presents the design and implementation of an inductive flow tomography (IFT) system, employing a multi-electrode electromagnetic flow meter (EMFM) and novel reconstruction techniques, for measuring the local water velocity distribution in water continuous single and multiphase flows. A series of experiments were carried out in vertical-upward and upward-inclined single phase water flows and ‘water continuous’ gas-water and oil-gas-water flows in which the velocity profiles ranged from axisymmetric (single phase and vertical-upward multiphase flows) to highly asymmetric (upward-inclined multiphase flows). Using potential difference measurements obtained from the electrode array of the EMFM, local axial velocity distributions of the continuous water phase were reconstructed using two different IFT reconstruction algorithms denoted RT#1, which assumes that the overall water velocity profile comprises the sum of a series of polynomial velocity components, and RT#2, which is similar to RT#1 but which assumes that the zero’th order velocity component may be replaced by an axisymmetric ‘power law’ velocity distribution. During each experiment, measurement of the local water volume fraction distribution was also made using the well-established technique of electrical resistance tomography (ERT). By integrating the product of the local axial water velocity and the local water volume fraction in the cross section an estimate of the water volumetric flow rate was made which was compared with a reference measurement of the water volumetric flow rate. In vertical upward flows RT#2 was found to give rise to water velocity profiles which are consistent with the previous literature although the profiles obtained in the multiphase flows had relatively higher central velocity peaks than was observed for the single phase profiles. This observation was almost certainly a result of the transfer of axial momentum from the less dense dispersed phases to the water, which occurred preferentially at the pipe centre. For upward inclined multiphase flows RT#1 was found to give rise to water velocity profiles which are more consistent with results in the previous literature than was the case for RT#2—which leads to the tentative conclusion that the upward inclined multiphase flows investigated in the present study did not contain significant axisymmetric velocity components.

Optimum Distribution of Metal Particles in the Solid-Propellant Charge in the Approximation of a One-Dimensional Flow Field in a Cylindrical Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min'kov, L. L.; Shrager, É. R.

2015-03-01

A study has been made of ways of optimum distribution of particles of dispersed metal in the solid-propellant charge with a cylindrical central channel, which is firmly fastened to the case. The efficiency of combustion of this metal has been analyzed. Consideration has been given to the influence of the dynamic nonequilibrium of two-phase flow on the optimum distribution of metal particles in the indicated charge in the approximation of one-dimensionality of the flow field.

Acute and chronic changes in brain activity with deep brain stimulation for refractory depression.

PubMed

Conen, Silke; Matthews, Julian C; Patel, Nikunj K; Anton-Rodriguez, José; Talbot, Peter S

2018-04-01

Deep brain stimulation is a potential option for patients with treatment-refractory depression. Deep brain stimulation benefits have been reported when targeting either the subgenual cingulate or ventral anterior capsule/nucleus accumbens. However, not all patients respond and optimum stimulation-site is uncertain. We compared deep brain stimulation of the subgenual cingulate and ventral anterior capsule/nucleus accumbens separately and combined in the same seven treatment-refractory depression patients, and investigated regional cerebral blood flow changes associated with acute and chronic deep brain stimulation. Deep brain stimulation-response was defined as reduction in Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale score from baseline of ≥50%, and remission as a Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale score ≤8. Changes in regional cerebral blood flow were assessed using [ 15 O]water positron emission tomography. Remitters had higher relative regional cerebral blood flow in the prefrontal cortex at baseline and all subsequent time-points compared to non-remitters and non-responders, with prefrontal cortex regional cerebral blood flow generally increasing with chronic deep brain stimulation. These effects were consistent regardless of stimulation-site. Overall, no significant regional cerebral blood flow changes were apparent when deep brain stimulation was acutely interrupted. Deep brain stimulation improved treatment-refractory depression severity in the majority of patients, with consistent changes in local and distant brain regions regardless of target stimulation. Remission of depression was reached in patients with higher baseline prefrontal regional cerebral blood flow. Because of the small sample size these results are preliminary and further evaluation is necessary to determine whether prefrontal cortex regional cerebral blood flow could be a predictive biomarker of treatment response.

Evaluation of multiple tracer methods to estimate low groundwater flow velocities.

PubMed

Reimus, Paul W; Arnold, Bill W

2017-04-01

Four different tracer methods were used to estimate groundwater flow velocity at a multiple-well site in the saturated alluvium south of Yucca Mountain, Nevada: (1) two single-well tracer tests with different rest or "shut-in" periods, (2) a cross-hole tracer test with an extended flow interruption, (3) a comparison of two tracer decay curves in an injection borehole with and without pumping of a downgradient well, and (4) a natural-gradient tracer test. Such tracer methods are potentially very useful for estimating groundwater velocities when hydraulic gradients are flat (and hence uncertain) and also when water level and hydraulic conductivity data are sparse, both of which were the case at this test location. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the first three methods for their ability to provide reasonable estimates of relatively low groundwater flow velocities in such low-hydraulic-gradient environments. The natural-gradient method is generally considered to be the most robust and direct method, so it was used to provide a "ground truth" velocity estimate. However, this method usually requires several wells, so it is often not practical in systems with large depths to groundwater and correspondingly high well installation costs. The fact that a successful natural gradient test was conducted at the test location offered a unique opportunity to compare the flow velocity estimates obtained by the more easily deployed and lower risk methods with the ground-truth natural-gradient method. The groundwater flow velocity estimates from the four methods agreed very well with each other, suggesting that the first three methods all provided reasonably good estimates of groundwater flow velocity at the site. The advantages and disadvantages of the different methods, as well as some of the uncertainties associated with them are discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Distribution and directional fabric of ash-flow sheets in the northwestern Mogollon Plateau, New Mexico.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhodes, R. C.; Smith, E. I.

1972-01-01

Individual ash-flow sheets distributed over wide areas in the Mogollon-Datil volcanic province can be delineated and related by flow direction techniques to specific source cauldrons. Two major mid-Tertiary ash flows in the Mogollon Plateau have measurable microscopic directional fabric indicative of primary flow direction imprinted in the ash-flow sheets during late-stage laminar flow. Regional stratigraphic relationships and flow patterns of the ash-flow sheets indicate a late Tertiary origin of the Mogollon Plateau depression. They also show that Basin-Range faulting in southwestern New Mexico was not initiated until after emplacement of the younger ash flow (23 m.y. B.P.). Directional fabric is an inherent property of many calc-alkalic ash-flow sheets and measurement of preferred orientation provides a powerful tool in unravelling the geologic history of complex volcanic terrane.

Landscape and flow metrics affecting the distribution of a federally-threatened fish: Improving management, model fit, and model transferability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Zhang, Tianjioa; Logue, Daniel R.; Mittelstet, Aaron R.

2016-01-01

Truncated distributions of pelagophilic fishes have been observed across the Great Plains of North America, with water use and landscape fragmentation implicated as contributing factors. Developing conservation strategies for these species is hindered by the existence of multiple competing flow regime hypotheses related to species persistence. Our primary study objective was to compare the predicted distributions of one pelagophil, the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, constructed using different flow regime metrics. Further, we investigated different approaches for improving temporal transferability of the species distribution model (SDM). We compared four hypotheses: mean annual flow (a baseline), the 75th percentile of daily flow, the number of zero-flow days, and the number of days above 55th percentile flows, to examine the relative importance of flows during the spawning period. Building on an earlier SDM, we added covariates that quantified wells in each catchment, point source discharges, and non-native species presence to a structured variable framework. We assessed the effects on model transferability and fit by reducing multicollinearity using Spearman’s rank correlations, variance inflation factors, and principal component analysis, as well as altering the regularization coefficient (β) within MaxEnt. The 75th percentile of daily flow was the most important flow metric related to structuring the species distribution. The number of wells and point source discharges were also highly ranked. At the default level of β, model transferability was improved using all methods to reduce collinearity; however, at higher levels of β, the correlation method performed best. Using β = 5 provided the best model transferability, while retaining the majority of variables that contributed 95% to the model. This study provides a workflow for improving model transferability and also presents water-management options that may be considered to improve the conservation status of pelagophils.

Leptokurtic pollen-flow, non-leptokurtic gene-flow in a wind-pollinated herb, Plantago lanceolata L.

PubMed

Tonsor, Stephen J

1985-10-01

The purpose of this study was to simultaneously measure pollen dispersal distance and actual pollen-mediated gene-flow distance in a wind-pollinated herb, Plantago lanceolata. The pollen dispersal distribution, measured as pollen deposition in a wind tunnel, is leptokurtic, as expected from previous studies of wind-pollinated plants. Gene-flow, measured as seeds produced on rows of male-sterile inflorescences in the wind tunnel, is non-leptokurtic, peaking at an intermediate distance. The difference between the two distributions results from the tendency of the pollen grains to cluster. These pollen clusters are the units of gene dispersal, with clusters of intermediate and large size contributing disproportionately to gene-flow. Since many wind-pollinated species show pollen clustering (see text), the common assumption for wind-pollinated plants that gene-flow is leptokurtic requires re-examination. Gene-flow was also measured in an artifical outdoor population of male-steriles, containing a single pollen source plant in the center of the array. The gene flow distribution is significantly platykurtic, and has the same general properties outdoors, where wind speed and turbulence are uncontrolled, as it does in the wind tunnel. I estimated genetic neighborhood size based on my measure of gene-flow in the outdoor population. The estimate shows that populations of Plantago lanceolata will vary in effective number from a few tens of plants to more than five hundred plants, depending on the density of the population in question. Thus, the measured pollen-mediated gene-flow distribution and population density will interact to produce effective population sizes ranging from those in which there is no random genetic drift to those in which random genetic drift plays an important role in determining gene frequencies within and among populations. Despite the platykurtosis in the distribution, pollen-mediated gene dispersal distances are still quite limited, and considerable within and among-population genetic differentiation is to be expected in this species.

Numerical study of effect of compressor swirling flow on combustor design in a MTE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Yong; Wang, Chengdong; Liu, Cunxi; Liu, Fuqiang; Hu, Chunyan; Xu, Gang; Zhu, Junqiang

2017-08-01

An effect of the swirling flow on the combustion performance is studied by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in a micro-gas turbine with a centrifugal compressor, dump diffuser and forward-flow combustor. The distributions of air mass and the Temperature Pattern Factor (as: Overall Temperature Distribution Factor -OTDF) in outlet are investigated with two different swirling angles of compressed air as 0° and 15° in three combustors. The results show that the influences of swirling flow on the air distribution and OTDF cannot be neglected. Compared with no-swirling flow, the air through outer liner is more, and the air through the inner liner is less, and the pressure loss is bigger under the swirling condition in the same combustor. The Temperature Pattern Factor changes under the different swirling conditions.

Jet array impingement flow distributions and heat transfer characteristics. Effects of initial crossflow and nonuniform array geometry. [gas turbine engine component cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Florschuetz, L. W.; Metzger, D. E.; Su, C. C.; Isoda, Y.; Tseng, H. H.

1982-01-01

Two-dimensional arrays of circular air jets impinging on a heat transfer surface parallel to the jet orifice plate are considered. The jet flow, after impingement, is constrained to exit in a single direction along the channel formed by the jet orifice plate and the heat transfer surface. The configurations considered are intended to model those of interest in current and contemplated gas turbine airfoil midchord cooling applications. The effects of an initial crossflow which approaches the array through an upstream extension of the channel are considered. Flow distributions as well as heat transfer coefficients and adiabatic wall temperatures resolved to one streamwise hole spacing were measured as a function of the initial crossflow rate and temperature relative to the jet flow rate and temperature. Both Nusselt number profiles and dimensionless adiabatic wall temperature (effectiveness) profiles are presented and discussed. Special test results which show a significant reduction of jet orifice discharge coefficients owing to the effect of a confined crossflow are also presented, along with a flow distribution model which incorporates those effects. A nonuniform array flow distribution model is developed and validated.