Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE PAGES

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.; ...

2018-02-01

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Association between problematic alcohol use and reactivity to uncertain threat in two independent samples

PubMed Central

Gorka, Stephanie M.; Lieberman, Lynne; Phan, K. Luan; Shankman, Stewart A.

2016-01-01

Background Recent laboratory studies have shown that acute alcohol intoxication selectively and effectively dampens aversive responding to an uncertain threat. An emerging hypothesis is that individuals who exhibit heightened reactivity to an uncertain threat may be especially motivated to use alcohol to dampen their distress, setting the stage for negative reinforcement processes to drive excessive alcohol use. However, no study to date has directly examined whether current problematic drinkers exhibit heightened reactivity to an uncertain threat as would be expected. Methods The present study was therefore designed to examine the association between current problematic alcohol use and reactivity to an uncertain threat during sobriety in two, independent samples. In Study 1 (n = 221) and Study 2 (n = 74), adult participants completed the same well-validated threat-of-shock task which separately probes responses to temporally predictable and unpredictable threat. Startle potentiation was measured as an index of aversive responding. Problematic alcohol use was defined as number of binge episodes within the past 30 days in Study 1 and total scores on a self-report measure of hazardous drinking in Study 2. Results As hypothesized, across both studies greater levels of problematic drinking were associated with greater startle potentiation to an unpredictable threat. In Study 2, hazardous drinking scores were also positively associated with startle potentiation to predictable threat. Conclusions The findings are notably consistent with the notion that heightened reactivity to an uncertain threat is an important individual difference factor associated with the onset and/or maintenance of problematic drinking behaviors and may therefore be a novel prevention and intervention target. PMID:27173662

Teacher Education and Posthumanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howlett, Caitlin

2018-01-01

Education faces a tenuous future, straddling a growing divide between a no-longer-relevant past and an uncertain future, a future that calls into question the future of humanity altogether. In the face of such a future, posthumanism stands as a reminder that the divides we make in education are unstable, that things could and likely will be…

Polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies for induction therapy in kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Hill, Penny; Cross, Nicholas B; Barnett, A Nicholas R; Palmer, Suetonia C; Webster, Angela C

2017-01-11

Prolonging kidney transplant survival is an important clinical priority. Induction immunosuppression with antibody therapy is recommended at transplantation and non-depleting interleukin-2 receptor monoclonal antibodies (IL2Ra) are considered first line. It is suggested that recipients at high risk of rejection should receive lymphocyte-depleting antibodies but the relative benefits and harms of the available agents are uncertain. We aimed to: evaluate the relative and absolute effects of different antibody preparations (except IL2Ra) when used as induction therapy in kidney transplant recipients; determine how the benefits and adverse events vary for each antibody preparation; determine how the benefits and harms vary for different formulations of antibody preparation; and determine whether the benefits and harms vary in specific subgroups of recipients (e.g. children and sensitised recipients). Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing monoclonal or polyclonal antibodies with placebo, no treatment, or other antibody therapy in adults and children who had received a kidney transplant. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing monoclonal or polyclonal antibodies with placebo, no treatment, or other antibody therapy in adults and children who had received a kidney transplant. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Dichotomous outcomes are reported as relative risk (RR) and continuous outcomes as mean difference (MD) together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). We included 99 studies (269 records; 8956 participants; 33 with contemporary agents). Methodology was incompletely reported in most studies leading to lower confidence in the treatment estimates.Antithymocyte globulin (ATG) prevented acute graft rejection (17 studies: RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.78). The benefits of ATG on graft rejection were similar when used with (12 studies: RR 0.61, 0.49 to 0.76) or without (5 studies: RR 0.65, 0.43 to 0.98) calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) treatment. ATG (with CNI therapy) had uncertain effects on death (3 to 6 months, 3 studies: RR 0.41, 0.13 to 1.22; 1 to 2 years, 5 studies: RR 0.75, 0.27 to 2.06; 5 years, 2 studies: RR 0.94, 0.11 to 7.81) and graft loss (3 to 6 months, 4 studies: RR 0.60, 0.34 to 1.05; 1 to 2 years, 3 studies: RR 0.65, 0.36 to 1.19). The effect of ATG on death-censored graft loss was uncertain at 1 to 2 years and 5 years. In non-CNI studies, ATG had uncertain effects on death but reduced death-censored graft loss (6 studies: RR 0.55, 0.38 to 0.78). When CNI and older non-CNI studies were combined, a benefit was seen with ATG at 1 to 2 years for both all-cause graft loss (7 studies: RR 0.71, 0.53 to 0.95) and death-censored graft loss (8 studies: RR 0.55, 0.39 to 0.77) but not sustained longer term. ATG increased cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection (6 studies: RR 1.55, 1.24 to 1.95), leucopenia (4 studies: RR 3.86, 2.79 to 5.34) and thrombocytopenia (4 studies: RR 2.41, 1.61 to 3.61) but had uncertain effects on delayed graft function, malignancy, post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD), and new onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT).Alemtuzumab was compared to ATG in six studies (446 patients) with early steroid withdrawal (ESW) or steroid minimisation. Alemtuzumab plus steroid minimisation reduced acute rejection compared to ATG at one year (4 studies: RR 0.57, 0.35 to 0.93). In the two studies with ESW only in the alemtuzumab arm, the effect of alemtuzumab on acute rejection at 1 year was uncertain compared to ATG (RR 1.27, 0.50 to 3.19). Alemtuzumab had uncertain effects on death (1 year, 2 studies: RR 0.39, 0.06 to 2.42; 2 to 3 years, 3 studies: RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.15 to 2.95), graft loss (1 year, 2 studies: RR 0.39, 0.13 to 1.30; 2 to 3 years, 3 studies: RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.47 to 2.06), and death-censored graft loss (1 year, 2 studies: RR 0.38, 0.08 to 1.81; 2 to 3 years, 3 studies: RR 2.45, 95% CI 0.67 to 8.97) compared to ATG. Creatinine clearance was lower with alemtuzumab plus ESW at 6 months (2 studies: MD -13.35 mL/min, -23.91 to -2.80) and 2 years (2 studies: MD -12.86 mL/min, -23.73 to -2.00) compared to ATG plus triple maintenance. Across all 6 studies, the effect of alemtuzumab versus ATG was uncertain on all-cause infection, CMV infection, BK virus infection, malignancy, and PTLD. The effect of alemtuzumab with steroid minimisation on NODAT was uncertain, compared to ATG with steroid maintenance.Alemtuzumab plus ESW compared with triple maintenance without induction therapy had uncertain effects on death and all-cause graft loss at 1 year, acute rejection at 6 months and 1 year. CMV infection was increased (2 studies: RR 2.28, 1.18 to 4.40). Treatment effects were uncertain for NODAT, thrombocytopenia, and malignancy or PTLD.Rituximab had uncertain effects on death, graft loss, acute rejection and all other adverse outcomes compared to placebo. ATG reduces acute rejection but has uncertain effects on death, graft survival, malignancy and NODAT, and increases CMV infection, thrombocytopenia and leucopenia. Given a 45% acute rejection risk without ATG induction, seven patients would need treatment to prevent one having rejection, while incurring an additional patient experiencing CMV disease for every 12 treated. Excluding non-CNI studies, the risk of rejection was 37% without induction with six patients needing treatment to prevent one having rejection.In the context of steroid minimisation, alemtuzumab prevents acute rejection at 1 year compared to ATG. Eleven patients would require treatment with alemtuzumab to prevent 1 having rejection, assuming a 21% rejection risk with ATG.Triple maintenance without induction therapy compared to alemtuzumab combined with ESW had similar rates of acute rejection but adverse effects including NODAT were poorly documented. Alemtuzumab plus steroid withdrawal would cause one additional patient experiencing CMV disease for every six patients treated compared to no induction and triple maintenance, in the absence of any clinical benefit. Overall, ATG and alemtuzumab decrease acute rejection at a cost of increased CMV disease while patient-centred outcomes (reduced death or lower toxicity) do not appear to be improved.

25 CFR 39.1203 - Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. The Assistant Secretary shall... 25 Indians 1 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. 39.1203 Section 39.1203 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR...

25 CFR 39.1203 - Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. The Assistant Secretary shall... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. 39.1203 Section 39.1203 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR...

25 CFR 39.1203 - Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. The Assistant Secretary shall... 25 Indians 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. 39.1203 Section 39.1203 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR...

25 CFR 39.1203 - Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. The Assistant Secretary shall... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. 39.1203 Section 39.1203 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR...

25 CFR 39.1203 - Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. The Assistant Secretary shall... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Future consideration of contract school operation and maintenance funding. 39.1203 Section 39.1203 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR...

Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

2017-02-01

Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong; ...

2016-12-08

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "/FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

A systematic analysis of model performance during simulations based on observed landcover/use change is used to quantify errors associated with simulations of known "future" conditions. Calibrated and uncalibrated assessments of relative change over different lengths of...

Collisional cascading - The limits of population growth in low earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, Donald J.

1991-01-01

Random collisions between made-made objects in earth orbit will lead to a significant source of orbital debris, but there are a number of uncertainties in these models, and additional analysis and data are required to fully characterize the future environment. However, the nature of these uncertainties are such that while the future environment is uncertain, the fact that collisions will control the future environment is less uncertain. The data that already exist is sufficient to show that cascading collisions will control the future debris environment with no, or very minor increases in the current low-earth-orbit population. Two populations control this process: explosion fragments and expended rocket bodies and payloads. Practices are already changing to limit explosions in low earth orbit; it is necessary to begin limiting the number of expended rocket bodies and payloads in orbit.

When Advisors' True Intentions Are in Question. How Do Bank Customers Cope with Uncertainty in Financial Consultancies?

PubMed

Mackinger, Barbara; Jonas, Eva; Mühlberger, Christina

2017-01-01

When making financial decisions bank customers are confronted with two types of uncertainty: first, return on investments is uncertain and there is a risk of losing money. Second, customers cannot be certain about their financial advisor's true intentions. This might decrease customers' willingness to cooperate with advisors. However, the uncertainty management model and fairness heuristic theory predict that in uncertain situations customers are willing to cooperate with financial advisors when they perceive fairness. In the current study, we investigated how perceived fairness in the twofold uncertain situations increased people's intended future cooperation with an advisor. We asked customers of financial consultancies about their experienced uncertainty regarding both the investment decision and the advisor's intentions. Moreover, we asked them about their perceived fairness, as well as their intention to cooperate with the advisor in the future. A three-way moderation analysis showed that customers who faced high uncertainty regarding the investment decision and high uncertainty regarding the advisor's true intentions indicated the lowest intended cooperation with the advisor but high fairness increased their cooperation. Interestingly, when people were only uncertain about the advisor's intentions (but certain about the decision) they indicated less cooperation than when they were only uncertain about the decision (but certain about the advisor's intentions). A mediated moderation analysis revealed that this relationship was explained by customers' lower trust in their advisors.

Mystic mountain: an educational alternative futures wildland planning game

Treesearch

Edward C. Thor; James L. Creighton

1978-01-01

Alternative futures planning is a generic name for a number of planning approaches which recognize that the future is uncertain. There is not one future, preordained and universally known, but rather a variety of possible futures, any one of which may occur. Mystic Mountain is an educational game which teaches wildland planners and managers important concepts in...

Acquiring Technical Data With Renewable Real Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

Development, and Engineering Center, 2009). Faced with diminishing sources for M2 .50 caliber machine gun parts , an Army engineering center entered the...data needed for life cycle sustainment functions such as maintenance or competitive spare parts procurement, but this expectation is more complicated...than it seems (DoD, 2015). The needs and timing for competitive spare parts procurement are uncertain, and changes in system configuration or

The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burges, S. J.

2016-12-01

Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

Uncertainty is associated with increased selective attention and sustained stimulus processing.

PubMed

Dieterich, Raoul; Endrass, Tanja; Kathmann, Norbert

2016-06-01

Uncertainty about future threat has been found to be associated with an overestimation of threat probability and is hypothesized to elicit additional allocation of attention. We used event-related potentials to examine uncertainty-related dynamics in attentional allocation, exploiting brain potentials' high temporal resolution and sensitivity to attention. Thirty participants performed a picture-viewing task in which cues indicated the subsequent picture valence. A certain-neutral and a certain-aversive cue accurately predicted subsequent picture valence, whereas an uncertain cue did not. Participants overestimated the effective frequency of aversive pictures following the uncertain cue, both during and after the task, signifying expectancy and covariation biases, and they tended to express lower subjective valences for aversive pictures presented after the uncertain cue. Pictures elicited increased P2 and LPP amplitudes when their valence could not be predicted from the cue. For the LPP, this effect was more pronounced in response to neutral pictures. Uncertainty appears to enhance the engagement of early phasic and sustained attention for uncertainly cued targets. Thus, defensive motivation related to uncertainty about future threat elicits specific attentional dynamics implicating prioritization at various processing stages, especially for nonthreatening stimuli that tend to violate expectations.

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Future scenarios can be developed through a combination of modifications to the land-cover/use maps used to parameterize hydr...

A systematic review of methodology applied during preclinical anesthetic neurotoxicity studies: important issues and lessons relevant to the design of future clinical research.

PubMed

Disma, Nicola; Mondardini, Maria C; Terrando, Niccolò; Absalom, Anthony R; Bilotta, Federico

2016-01-01

Preclinical evidence suggests that anesthetic agents harm the developing brain thereby causing long-term neurocognitive impairments. It is not clear if these findings apply to humans, and retrospective epidemiological studies thus far have failed to show definitive evidence that anesthetic agents are harmful to the developing human brain. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize the preclinical studies published over the past decade, with a focus on methodological issues, to facilitate the comparison between different preclinical studies and inform better design of future trials. The literature search identified 941 articles related to the topic of neurotoxicity. As the primary aim of this systematic review was to compare methodologies applied in animal studies to inform future trials, we excluded a priori all articles focused on putative mechanism of neurotoxicity and the neuroprotective agents. Forty-seven preclinical studies were finally included in this review. Methods used in these studies were highly heterogeneous-animals were exposed to anesthetic agents at different developmental stages, in various doses and in various combinations with other drugs, and overall showed diverse toxicity profiles. Physiological monitoring and maintenance of physiological homeostasis was variable and the use of cognitive tests was generally limited to assessment of specific brain areas, with restricted translational relevance to humans. Comparison between studies is thus complicated by this heterogeneous methodology and the relevance of the combined body of literature to humans remains uncertain. Future preclinical studies should use better standardized methodologies to facilitate transferability of findings from preclinical into clinical science. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reasoning with Incomplete and Uncertain Information

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

are rationally compatible (just as is the case in the fundamental computational mechanisms of truth maintenance systems ). The logics we construct will...complete, pre- cise, and unvarying. This fundamental assumption is a principal source of the limitation of many diagnostic systems to single fault diagnoses...Air Force Systems Command Griffiss Air Force Base, NY 13441-5700 This report has been reviewed by the Rome Laboratory Public Affairs Dffice (PA) and

Multimodal network models for robust transportation systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

Since transportation infrastructure projects have a lifetime of many decades, project developers must consider : not only the current demand for the project but also the future demand. Future demand is of course uncertain and should : be treated as s...

Distinct Roles of PKCι/λ and PKMζ in the Initiation and Maintenance of Hippocampal Long-Term Potentiation and Memory.

PubMed

Wang, Shaoli; Sheng, Tao; Ren, Siqiang; Tian, Tian; Lu, Wei

2016-08-16

PKMζ has been proposed to be essential for maintenance of long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term memory (LTM). However, recent data from PKMζ-knockout mice has called this role into question. Instead, the other atypical isoform, protein kinase C iota/lambda (PKCι/λ), has emerged as a potential alternative player. Therefore, the nature of the "memory molecule" maintaining learned information remains uncertain. Here, we report knockdown (KD) of PKCι/λ and PKMζ in the dorsal hippocampus and find deficits in early expression and late maintenance, respectively, during both LTP and hippocampus-dependent LTM. Sequential increases in the active form of PKCι/λ and PKMζ are detected during LTP or fear conditioning. Importantly, PKMζ, but not PKCι/λ, KD disrupts previously established LTM. Thus, PKCι/λ and PKMζ have distinct functions in LTP and memory, with PKMζ playing a specific role in memory maintenance. This relaying pattern may represent a precise molecular mechanism by which atypical PKCs regulate the different stages of memory. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Method and computer program product for maintenance and modernization backlogging

DOEpatents

Mattimore, Bernard G; Reynolds, Paul E; Farrell, Jill M

2013-02-19

According to one embodiment, a computer program product for determining future facility conditions includes a computer readable medium having computer readable program code stored therein. The computer readable program code includes computer readable program code for calculating a time period specific maintenance cost, for calculating a time period specific modernization factor, and for calculating a time period specific backlog factor. Future facility conditions equal the time period specific maintenance cost plus the time period specific modernization factor plus the time period specific backlog factor. In another embodiment, a computer-implemented method for calculating future facility conditions includes calculating a time period specific maintenance cost, calculating a time period specific modernization factor, and calculating a time period specific backlog factor. Future facility conditions equal the time period specific maintenance cost plus the time period specific modernization factor plus the time period specific backlog factor. Other embodiments are also presented.

17 CFR 5.6 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by retail foreign exchange dealers and futures...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Maintenance of minimum... engaging in retail forex transactions. 5.6 Section 5.6 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION OFF-EXCHANGE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSACTIONS § 5.6 Maintenance of minimum financial...

Likelihood of achieving air quality targets under model uncertainties.

PubMed

Digar, Antara; Cohan, Daniel S; Cox, Dennis D; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Boylan, James W

2011-01-01

Regulatory attainment demonstrations in the United States typically apply a bright-line test to predict whether a control strategy is sufficient to attain an air quality standard. Photochemical models are the best tools available to project future pollutant levels and are a critical part of regulatory attainment demonstrations. However, because photochemical models are uncertain and future meteorology is unknowable, future pollutant levels cannot be predicted perfectly and attainment cannot be guaranteed. This paper introduces a computationally efficient methodology for estimating the likelihood that an emission control strategy will achieve an air quality objective in light of uncertainties in photochemical model input parameters (e.g., uncertain emission and reaction rates, deposition velocities, and boundary conditions). The method incorporates Monte Carlo simulations of a reduced form model representing pollutant-precursor response under parametric uncertainty to probabilistically predict the improvement in air quality due to emission control. The method is applied to recent 8-h ozone attainment modeling for Atlanta, Georgia, to assess the likelihood that additional controls would achieve fixed (well-defined) or flexible (due to meteorological variability and uncertain emission trends) targets of air pollution reduction. The results show that in certain instances ranking of the predicted effectiveness of control strategies may differ between probabilistic and deterministic analyses.

Uncertain behaviours of integrated circuits improve computational performance.

PubMed

Yoshimura, Chihiro; Yamaoka, Masanao; Hayashi, Masato; Okuyama, Takuya; Aoki, Hidetaka; Kawarabayashi, Ken-ichi; Mizuno, Hiroyuki

2015-11-20

Improvements to the performance of conventional computers have mainly been achieved through semiconductor scaling; however, scaling is reaching its limitations. Natural phenomena, such as quantum superposition and stochastic resonance, have been introduced into new computing paradigms to improve performance beyond these limitations. Here, we explain that the uncertain behaviours of devices due to semiconductor scaling can improve the performance of computers. We prototyped an integrated circuit by performing a ground-state search of the Ising model. The bit errors of memory cell devices holding the current state of search occur probabilistically by inserting fluctuations into dynamic device characteristics, which will be actualised in the future to the chip. As a result, we observed more improvements in solution accuracy than that without fluctuations. Although the uncertain behaviours of devices had been intended to be eliminated in conventional devices, we demonstrate that uncertain behaviours has become the key to improving computational performance.

The present status and future growth of maintenance in US manufacturing: results from a pilot survey.

PubMed

Jin, Xiaoning; Siegel, David; Weiss, Brian A; Gamel, Ellen; Wang, Wei; Lee, Jay; Ni, Jun

A research study was conducted (1) to examine the practices employed by US manufacturers to achieve productivity goals and (2) to understand what level of intelligent maintenance technologies and strategies are being incorporated into these practices. This study found that the effectiveness and choice of maintenance strategy were strongly correlated to the size of the manufacturing enterprise; there were large differences in adoption of advanced maintenance practices and diagnostics and prognostics technologies between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Despite their greater adoption of maintenance practices and technologies, large manufacturing organizations have had only modest success with respect to diagnostics and prognostics and preventive maintenance projects. The varying degrees of success with respect to preventative maintenance programs highlight the opportunity for larger manufacturers to improve their maintenance practices and use of advanced prognostics and health management (PHM) technology. The future outlook for manufacturing PHM technology among the manufacturing organizations considered in this study was overwhelmingly positive; many manufacturing organizations have current and planned projects in this area. Given the current modest state of implementation and positive outlook for this technology, gaps, future trends, and roadmaps for manufacturing PHM and maintenance strategy are presented.

The present status and future growth of maintenance in US manufacturing: results from a pilot survey

PubMed Central

Jin, Xiaoning; Siegel, David; Weiss, Brian A.; Gamel, Ellen; Wang, Wei; Lee, Jay; Ni, Jun

2016-01-01

A research study was conducted (1) to examine the practices employed by US manufacturers to achieve productivity goals and (2) to understand what level of intelligent maintenance technologies and strategies are being incorporated into these practices. This study found that the effectiveness and choice of maintenance strategy were strongly correlated to the size of the manufacturing enterprise; there were large differences in adoption of advanced maintenance practices and diagnostics and prognostics technologies between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Despite their greater adoption of maintenance practices and technologies, large manufacturing organizations have had only modest success with respect to diagnostics and prognostics and preventive maintenance projects. The varying degrees of success with respect to preventative maintenance programs highlight the opportunity for larger manufacturers to improve their maintenance practices and use of advanced prognostics and health management (PHM) technology. The future outlook for manufacturing PHM technology among the manufacturing organizations considered in this study was overwhelmingly positive; many manufacturing organizations have current and planned projects in this area. Given the current modest state of implementation and positive outlook for this technology, gaps, future trends, and roadmaps for manufacturing PHM and maintenance strategy are presented. PMID:27525253

Assessing risk based on uncertain avalanche activity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeidler, Antonia; Fromm, Reinhard

2015-04-01

Avalanches may affect critical infrastructure and may cause great economic losses. The planning horizon of infrastructures, e.g. hydropower generation facilities, reaches well into the future. Based on the results of previous studies on the effect of changing meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature) and the effect on avalanche activity we assume that there will be a change of the risk pattern in future. The decision makers need to understand what the future might bring to best formulate their mitigation strategies. Therefore, we explore a commercial risk software to calculate risk for the coming years that might help in decision processes. The software @risk, is known to many larger companies, and therefore we explore its capabilities to include avalanche risk simulations in order to guarantee a comparability of different risks. In a first step, we develop a model for a hydropower generation facility that reflects the problem of changing avalanche activity patterns in future by selecting relevant input parameters and assigning likely probability distributions. The uncertain input variables include the probability of avalanches affecting an object, the vulnerability of an object, the expected costs for repairing the object and the expected cost due to interruption. The crux is to find the distribution that best represents the input variables under changing meteorological conditions. Our focus is on including the uncertain probability of avalanches based on the analysis of past avalanche data and expert knowledge. In order to explore different likely outcomes we base the analysis on three different climate scenarios (likely, worst case, baseline). For some variables, it is possible to fit a distribution to historical data, whereas in cases where the past dataset is insufficient or not available the software allows to select from over 30 different distribution types. The Monte Carlo simulation uses the probability distribution of uncertain variables using all valid combinations of the values of input variables to simulate all possible outcomes. In our case the output is the expected risk (Euro/year) for each object (e.g. water intake) considered and the entire hydropower generation system. The output is again a distribution that is interpreted by the decision makers as the final strategy depends on the needs and requirements of the end-user, which may be driven by personal preferences. In this presentation, we will show a way on how we used the uncertain information on avalanche activity in future to subsequently use it in a commercial risk software and therefore bringing the knowledge of natural hazard experts to decision makers.

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and disordered eating behaviour: A systematic review and a framework for future research.

PubMed

Kaisari, Panagiota; Dourish, Colin T; Higgs, Suzanne

2017-04-01

Preliminary findings suggest that Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) may be associated with disordered eating behaviour, but whether there is sufficient evidence to suggest an association between ADHD and specific types of disordered eating behaviour is unclear. Furthermore, it is uncertain whether specific features associated with ADHD are differentially associated with disordered eating behaviour. A systematic review of seventy-five studies was conducted to evaluate the potential association between ADHD symptomatology and disordered eating behaviour and to provide an estimate of the strength of evidence for any association. Overall, a moderate strength of evidence exists for a positive association between ADHD and disordered eating and with specific types of disordered-eating behaviour, in particular, overeating behaviour. There is consistent evidence that impulsivity symptoms of ADHD are positively associated with overeating and bulimia nervosa and more limited evidence for an association between hyperactivity symptoms and restrictive eating in males but not females. Further research is required to assess the potential direction of the relationship between ADHD and disordered eating, the underlying mechanisms and the role of specific ADHD symptoms in the development and/or maintenance of disordered eating behaviour. We propose a framework that could be used to guide the design of future studies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Stuart G.

2013-05-01

Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

Toward Securing a Future for Geography Graduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spronken-Smith, Rachel

2013-01-01

Geography graduates face an uncertain future. To help students think and practice as a geographer, we must teach disciplinary knowledge--particularly threshold concepts--as well as skills and attributes. We must role model and articulate our geographical reasoning using signature pedagogies and promote high-impact and signature learning…

Infliximab for Crohn's disease in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study: clinical management and appropriateness.

PubMed

Juillerat, Pascal; Pittet, Valérie; Vader, John-Paul; Burnand, Bernard; Gonvers, Jean-Jacques; de Saussure, Philippe; Mottet, Christian; Seibold, Frank; Rogler, Gerhard; Sagmeister, Markus; Felley, Christian; Michetti, Pierre; Froehlich, Florian

2010-11-01

Antitumor necrosis factor a agents have significantly improved the management of Crohn's disease (CD), but not all patients benefit from this therapy. We used data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study and predefined appropriateness criteria to examine the appropriateness of use of infliximab (IFX) in CD patients. EPACT II (European Panel on the Appropriateness of CD Therapy, 2007; www.epact.ch) appropriateness criteria have been developed using a formal explicit panel process combining evidence from the published literature and expert opinion. Questionnaires relating to EPACT II criteria were used at enrollment and follow-up of all Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study patients. A step-by-step analysis of all possible indications for IFX therapy in a given patient allowed identification of the most appropriate indication and final classification in a single appropriateness category (appropriate, uncertain, inappropriate). Eight hundred and twenty-one CD patients were prospectively enrolled between November 2006 and March 2009. IFX was administered to 146 patients (18%) at enrollment and was most frequently used for complex fistulizing disease and for the maintenance of remission induced by biological therapy. IFX therapy was considered appropriate in 44%, uncertain in 44%, and inappropriate in 10% of patients. In this cohort, 9 out of 10 indications for IFX therapy were clinically generally acceptable (appropriate or uncertain) according to EPACT II criteria. Uncertain indications resulted mainly from the current more liberal use of IFX in clinical practice as compared with the EPACT II criteria.

"What time is my next meal?" delay-discounting individuals choose smaller portions under conditions of uncertainty.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Annie R; Ferriday, Danielle; Davies, Sarah R; Martin, Ashley A; Rogers, Peter J; Mason, Alice; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M

2017-09-01

'Dietary' delay discounting is typically framed as a trade-off between immediate rewards and long-term health concerns. Our contention is that prospective thinking also occurs over shorter periods, and is engaged to select portion sizes based on the interval between meals (inter-meal interval; IMI). We sought to assess the extent to which the length of an IMI influences portion-size selection. We predicted that delay discounters would show 'IMI insensitivity' (relative lack of concern about hunger or fullness between meals). In particular, we were interested in participants' sensitivity to an uncertain IMI. We hypothesized that when meal times were uncertain, delay discounters would be less responsive and select smaller portion sizes. Participants (N = 90) selected portion sizes for lunch. In different trials, they were told to expect dinner at 5pm, 9pm, and either 5pm or 9pm (uncertain IMI). Individual differences in future-orientation were measured using a monetary delay-discounting task. Participants chose larger portions when the IMI was longer (p < 0.001). When the IMI was uncertain, delay-discounting participants chose smaller portions than the average portion chosen in the certain IMIs (p < 0.05). Furthermore, monetary discounting mediated a relationship between BMI and smaller portion selection in uncertainty (p < 0.05). This is the first study to report an association between delay discounting and IMI insensitivity. We reason that delay discounters selected smaller portions because they were less sensitive to the uncertain IMI, and overlooked concerns about potential future hunger. These findings are important because they illustrate that differences in discounting are expressed in short-term portion-size decisions and suggest that IMI insensitivity increases when meal timings are uncertain. Further research is needed to confirm whether these findings generalise to other populations. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Conifer radial growth response to recent seasonal warming and drought from the southwestern USA

Treesearch

Charles Truettner; William R. L. Anderegg; Franco Biondi; George W. Koch; Kiona Ogle; Christopher Schwalm; Marcy E. Litvak; John D. Shaw; Emanuele Ziaco

2018-01-01

Future droughts are expected to become more severe and frequent under future climate change scenarios, likely causing widespread tree mortality in the western USA. Coping with an uncertain future requires an understanding of long-term ecosystem responses in areas where prolonged drought is projected to increase. Tree-ring records are ideally suited for this task. We...

Disruptive Technology: An Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-21

Technology that overturns market -- Military - Technology that causes a fundamental change in force structure, basing, and capability balance * Disruptive Technologies may arise from systems or enabling technology.

How Do Future Life Perspective and Present Action Work in Japanese Youth Development?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kawai, Toru; Moran, Seana

2017-01-01

"Future life perspective" and "present action," whose interaction affects how one's current activity affects later life, offer a critical crossroads for young adults in Japan as stable career paths have become more uncertain. Past generations benefited from stable institutional pathways, but recent generations must forge their…

Best practices and performance assessment for preventive maintenance treatments for Virginia pavements.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

Preventive maintenance has the potential to improve network condition by retarding future pavement deterioration. This : report outlines guidelines for implementing a preventive maintenance policy for bituminous pavements. : Preventive maintenance tr...

Evaluation of artillery equipment maintenance support capability based on grey clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Mei-jie; Gao, Peng

2017-12-01

This paper, the theory and method of evaluating the capability of equipment maintenance support in China and abroad are studied, from the point of view of the combat task of artillery troops and the strategic attachment in the future military struggle. This paper establishes the framework of the evaluation Index system of the equipment maintenance support capability of the artillery units, and applies the grey clustering method to the evaluation of the equipment maintenance support capability of the artillery units, and finally evaluates the equipment maintenance and support capability of the artillery brigade as an example, and analyzes the evaluation results. This paper finds out the outstanding problems existing in the maintenance and support of military equipment, and puts forward some constructive suggestions, in order to improve the status of military equipment maintenance and support and improve the level of future equipment maintenance.

Leadership succession planning: an evidence-based approach for managing the future.

PubMed

Redman, Richard W

2006-06-01

Leadership succession planning is a key business strategy to help organizational leaders deal effectively with the future. Evidence from industry provides a variety of best practices that can ensure that a pipeline of leaders will be available when they are needed. The author addresses the essential needs that individuals face when developing a cadre of available leaders prepared for managing an uncertain future.

Failure: A Source of Progress in Maintenance and Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaïb, R.; Taleb, M.; Benidir, M.; Verzea, I.; Bellaouar, A.

This approach, allows using the failure as a source of progress in maintenance and design to detect the most critical components in equipment, to determine the priority order maintenance actions to lead and direct the exploitation procedure towards the most penalizing links in this equipment, even define the necessary changes and recommendations for future improvement. Thus, appreciate the pathological behaviour of the material and increase its availability, even increase its lifespan and improve its future design. In this context and in the light of these points, the failures are important in managing the maintenance function. Indeed, it has become important to understand the phenomena of failure and degradation of equipments in order to establish an appropriate maintenance policy for the rational use of mechanical components and move to the practice of proactive maintenance [1], do maintenance at the design [2].

Governance in the Digital Age: A Research and Action Framework for an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawes, Sharon S.

2009-01-01

Research into relationships among government, society and technology has grown substantially over the past 30 years. However, most research and most advances in practice address narrowly defined categories of concern such as government organization, citizen services, interoperability, or personal privacy. By contrast, the future presents complex…

Planning for an uncertain future: Restoration to mitigate water scarcity and sustain carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Steven T. Brantley; James M. Vose; David N. Wear; Larry Band

2018-01-01

The desired future conditions of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) can be described by ecosystem structural characteristics as well as by the provision of ecosystem services. Although the desired structural characteristics of restored longleaf pine ecosystems have been described at length, these characteristics deserve a brief review here because...

Caught in Uncertain Futures, Now: A Reflexive Moment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reyes, Reynaldo, III

2016-01-01

This reflexive vignette reveals the emotional risks of ethnographic work by a Chicano researcher, educator, and advocate doing work in the Texas-Mexico Borderlands, caught at the intersection of vulnerable Latina/o youth and their possible futures. Data in this creative piece are derived from field notes of one classroom observation from an…

University Continuing Education: Strategies for an Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baskett, H. K.; Hamilton, A. Bruce

Some of the most common predictions relating to university continuing education units provide a base from which a discussion of future strategies can begin. These include the following: the Big Generation (i.e., baby boomers) is here; knowledge, not products, is the major focus of society; competition for the traditional university continuing…

The Future Role of Publishing Services in University Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Tyler

2012-01-01

This study explores possible futures for university-based library publishing services (LPS) and uses scenario planning as its research method. The study posits that the major force in developing LPS is the level of funding from the host university, with the most uncertain factor being whether faculty will adopt LPS. The study participants…

2009 Community College Futures Assembly Focus: Leading Change--Leading in an Uncertain Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Dale F.; Morris, Phillip A.

2009-01-01

The Community College Futures Assembly has served as a national, independent policy thinktank since 1995. Its purpose is to articulate the critical issues facing American community colleges and recognize innovative programs. Convening annually in January in Orlando, Florida, the Assembly offers a learning environment where tough questions are…

Safeguards Technology Strategic Planning Pentachart

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carroll, C. J.

Builds on earlier strategic planning workshops conducted for SGIT, SGTS, and SGCP. Many of recommendations from these workshops have been successfully implemented at the IAEA. Provide a context for evaluating new approaches for anticipated safeguards challenges of the future. Approach used by government and military to plan for an uncertain future. Uses consensus decision-making.

Uncertain Environmental Footprint of Current and Future Battery Electric Vehicles.

PubMed

Cox, Brian; Mutel, Christopher L; Bauer, Christian; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vuuren, Detlef P

2018-04-17

The future environmental impacts of battery electric vehicles (EVs) are very important given their expected dominance in future transport systems. Previous studies have shown these impacts to be highly uncertain, though a detailed treatment of this uncertainty is still lacking. We help to fill this gap by using Monte Carlo and global sensitivity analysis to quantify parametric uncertainty and also consider two additional factors that have not yet been addressed in the field. First, we include changes to driving patterns due to the introduction of autonomous and connected vehicles. Second, we deeply integrate scenario results from the IMAGE integrated assessment model into our life cycle database to include the impacts of changes to the electricity sector on the environmental burdens of producing and recharging future EVs. Future EVs are expected to have 45-78% lower climate change impacts than current EVs. Electricity used for charging is the largest source of variability in results, though vehicle size, lifetime, driving patterns, and battery size also strongly contribute to variability. We also show that it is imperative to consider changes to the electricity sector when calculating upstream impacts of EVs, as without this, results could be overestimated by up to 75%.

The Next Decade in Career Counseling: Cocoon Maintenance or Metamorphosis?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parmer, Twinet; Rush, Lee Covington

2003-01-01

Articulates the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, and future vision for career counseling using a cocoon maintenance or metamorphosis metaphor. Concludes with a vision for the future for the discipline and profession of career counseling. (Contains 40 references.) (GCP)

Tsallis’ non-extensive free energy as a subjective value of an uncertain reward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Taiki

2009-03-01

Recent studies in neuroeconomics and econophysics revealed the importance of reward expectation in decision under uncertainty. Behavioral neuroeconomic studies have proposed that the unpredictability and the probability of an uncertain reward are distinctly encoded as entropy and a distorted probability weight, respectively, in the separate neural systems. However, previous behavioral economic and decision-theoretic models could not quantify reward-seeking and uncertainty aversion in a theoretically consistent manner. In this paper, we have: (i) proposed that generalized Helmholtz free energy in Tsallis’ non-extensive thermostatistics can be utilized to quantify a perceived value of an uncertain reward, and (ii) empirically examined the explanatory powers of the models. Future study directions in neuroeconomics and econophysics by utilizing the Tsallis’ free energy model are discussed.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services.

PubMed

Lavorel, Sandra; Colloff, Matthew J; McIntyre, Sue; Doherty, Michael D; Murphy, Helen T; Metcalfe, Daniel J; Dunlop, Michael; Williams, Richard J; Wise, Russell M; Williams, Kristen J

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

20+ Years of Environmental Education Centers in Greece: Teachers' Perceptions and Future Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yanniris, Constantinos

2015-01-01

For the first time after decades of expansion and systematic innovative practice, environmental education in Greece faces an uncertain future as a result of the contemporary political and economic crisis. This research aims to contribute to the international exchange of good practices by focusing on the effects and functions of the Greek network…

Two Energy Futures: A National Choice for the 80s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Petroleum Inst., Washington, DC.

In 1980, the American Petroleum Institute published the first edition of "Two Energy Futures." It described the U.S. energy experience of the 1970s and prospects for the 1980s, concluding that the nation could drastically reduce its dependence on uncertain sources of imported oil if the right choices were made by individuals and the…

Temperature and tree growth [editorial

Treesearch

Michael G. Ryan

2010-01-01

Tree growth helps US forests take up 12% of the fossil fuels emitted in the USA (Woodbury et al. 2007), so predicting tree growth for future climates matters. Predicting future climates themselves is uncertain, but climate scientists probably have the most confidence in predictions for temperature. Temperatures are projected to rise by 0.2 °C in the next two decades,...

Preparing for an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lefkowits, Laura; Miller, Kirsten

2007-01-01

In this article, the authors explain a method that helps policymakers and educators to identify the forces and trends affecting education today and to project how they might conceivably play out in the future. They suggest that by asking "What if?" in a disciplined way, it might be better to imagine the possibilities of tomorrow in order to take…

Observed and projected C change in the Southeastern US

Treesearch

John Coulston; David Wear; Jim Vose

2015-01-01

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain due to the effects of land use changes, management, disturbance, and climate change. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. Using a completely...

The ABPN Maintenance of Certification Program for psychiatrists: past history, current status, and future directions.

PubMed

Faulkner, Larry R; Tivnan, Patricia W; Winstead, Daniel K; Reus, Victor I; Andrade, Naleen N; Brooks, Beth Ann; Colenda, Christopher C; Mrazek, David A; Reifler, Burton V; Schneidman, Barbara

2008-01-01

To describe the American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology (ABPN) Maintenance of Certification Program, its underlying rationale, how it will be implemented now, and what it might look like in the future. The authors describe the philosophical foundation, specific components, and the implementation timeline of the ABPN Maintenance of Certification Program; the development of specific products that might be used by ABPN diplomates to meet its requirements; and several unanswered questions about its current status and future development. The ABPN Maintenance of Certification Program consists of specific requirements pertaining to professional standing, self-assessment and lifelong learning, performance in practice, and cognitive expertise that will be implemented incrementally over the next decade. The ABPN Maintenance of Certification Program has been implemented in a manner that is as consistent as possible with its underlying philosophical beliefs as well as the current and expected public and political concerns, diplomate needs, and the requirements of organizations responsible for licensure, credentialing, privileging, accreditation, professional development, and physician reimbursement.

Toward full life cycle control: Adding maintenance measurement to the SEL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rombach, H. Dieter; Ulery, Bradford T.; Valett, Jon D.

1992-01-01

Organization-wide measurement of software products and processes is needed to establish full life cycle control over software products. The Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL)--a joint venture between NASA GSFC, the University of Maryland, and Computer Sciences Corporation--started measurement of software development more than 15 years ago. Recently, the measurement of maintenance was added to the scope of the SEL. In this article, the maintenance measurement program is presented as an addition to the already existing and well-established SEL development measurement program and evaluated in terms of its immediate benefits and long-term improvement potential. Immediate benefits of this program for the SEL include an increased understanding of the maintenance domain, the differences and commonalities between development and maintenance, and the cause-effect relationships between development and maintenance. Initial results from a sample maintenance study are presented to substantiate these benefits. The long-term potential of this program includes the use of maintenance baselines to better plan and manage future projects and to improve development and maintenance practices for future projects wherever warranted.

An uncertain future for lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Lee T.

2018-03-01

The most commonly used method for representing lightning in global atmospheric models generally predicts lightning increases in a warmer world. A new scheme finds the opposite result, directly challenging the predictive skill of an old stalwart.

Preliminary Analysis of ISS Maintenance History and Implications for Supportability of Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Kevin J.; Robbins, William W.

2004-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) enables the study of supportability issues associated with long-duration human spaceflight. The ISS is a large, complex spacecraft that must be maintained by its crew. In contrast to the Space Shuttle Orbiter vehicle, but similar to spacecraft that will be component elements of future missions beyond low-Earth orbit, ISS does not return to the ground for servicing and provisioning of spares is severely constrained by transportation limits. Although significant technical support is provided by ground personnel, all hands-on maintenance tasks are performed by the crew. It is expected that future missions to distant destinations will be further limited by lack of resupply opportunities and will, eventually, become largely independent of ground support. ISS provides an opportunity to begin learning lessons that will enable future missions to be successful. Data accumulated over the first several years of ISS operations have been analyzed to gain a better understanding of maintenance-related workload. This analysis addresses both preventive and corrective maintenance and includes all U.S segment core systems. Systems and tasks that are major contributors to workload are identified. As further experience accrues, lessons will be learned that will influence future system designs so that they require less maintenance and, when maintenance is required, it can be performed more efficiently. By heeding the lessons of ISS it will be possible to identify system designs that should be more robust and point towards advances in both technology and design that will offer the greatest return on investment.

Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Bakker, Alexander M R; Wong, Tony E; Ruckert, Kelsey L; Keller, Klaus

2017-06-20

There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices . Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projections aim to inform robust decisions by clarifying the sensitivity to non-trivial or controversial assumptions. We show that the deeply uncertain WAIS contribution can dominate other uncertainties within decades. These deep uncertainties call for the development of robust adaptive strategies. These decision-making needs, in turn, require mission-oriented basic science, for example about potential signposts and the maximum rate of WAIS-induced sea-level changes.

How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

Operations and maintenance philosophy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DUNCAN, G.P.

1999-10-28

This Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Philosophy document is intended to establish a future O&M vision, with an increased focus on minimizing worker exposure, ensuring uninterrupted retrieval operations, and minimizing operation life-cycle cost. It is intended that this document would incorporate O&M lessons learned into on-going and future project upgrades.

Interpretation bias for uncertain threat: A replication and extension.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary E; Raines, Amanda M; Short, Nicole A; Capron, Daniel W; Schmidt, Norman B

2016-06-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed as an important transdiagnostic variable within various anxiety-related disorders. Research has suggested that individuals high in IU may interpret ambiguous information in a more threatening manner, suggesting a negative interpretation bias for uncertain information. However, interpretation biases within IU have not been adequately tested in the literature. The current study evaluated negative interpretation biases for uncertain information by directly measuring an individual's interpretations of ambiguous information across two samples. Participants consisted of 76 (Study 1; 72.4% female) and 31 (Study 2; 81% female) undergraduate students. Results indicated that individuals high in IU interpret ambiguous scenarios as more threatening compared to negative and/or positive scenarios (β = .45, p = .02). In addition, individuals high in IU showed a negative interpretation bias for ambiguous information, but not benign information (Study 1: β = -.40, p < .001; Study 2: β = -.57, p = .002). Future research should attempt to replicate these findings within clinical populations. In addition, future work would benefit from the inclusion of behavioral assessments of IU. These findings are the first to detect the presence of a negative interpretation bias for uncertain information among individuals high in IU utilizing a task designed to directly measure an individual's interpretation of information. Given the efficacy and low economic burden associated with interpretation bias modification protocols, and the transdiagnostic nature of IU, targeting IU within these protocols could have a tremendous public health impact. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty during Anticipation Modulates Neural Responses to Aversion in Human Insula and Amygdala

PubMed Central

Sarinopoulos, I.; Grupe, D. W.; Mackiewicz, K. L.; Herrington, J. D.; Lor, M.; Steege, E. E.

2010-01-01

Uncertainty about potential negative future outcomes can cause stress and is a central feature of anxiety disorders. The stress and anxiety associated with uncertain situations may lead individuals to overestimate the frequency with which uncertain cues are followed by negative outcomes, an example of covariation bias. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we found that uncertainty-related expectations modulated neural responses to aversion. Insula and amygdala responses to aversive pictures were larger after an uncertain cue (that preceded aversive or neutral pictures) than a certain cue (that always preceded aversive pictures). Anticipatory anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) activity elicited by the cues was inversely associated with the insula and amygdala responses to aversive pictures following the cues. Nearly 75% of subjects overestimated the frequency of aversive pictures following uncertain cues, and ACC and insula activity predicted this uncertainty-related covariation bias. Findings provide the first evidence of the brain mechanisms of covariation bias and highlight the temporal dynamics of ACC, insula, and amygdala recruitment for processing aversion in the context of uncertainty. PMID:19679543

TOPEX/Poseidon orbit maintenance for the first five years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhat, R. S.; Shapiro, B. E.; Frauenholz, R. B.; Leavitt, R. K.

1998-01-01

The TOPEX/Poseidon orbit maintenance strategy was changed following launch to include the effects of observed unmodeled, and hence anomalous, along-track accelerations. The anomalous force causes the semi-major axis, a, to either increase (called "boost") or decrease ("deboost" or "decay") depending on the satellite attitude and solar array pitch angle offset. Although this force is the most uncertain parameter in ground track prediction, it has been used as a passive technique for orbit maintenance, thereby reducing the number of propulsive maneuvers, enhancing maneuver spacing, and to place maneuvers at convenient times. This passive technique was first demonstrated in May 1993. The TOPEX/Poseidon orbit has been uniquely maintained using both passive (non-propulsive) and active (propulsive) maneuvers. Furthermore, the orbit has been maintained using only the passive technique since the ninth orbit maintenance maneuver on January 15, 1996. Only nine orbit maintenance maneuvers have been required to maintain the ground track, including verification site over flights, since achieving the operational orbit on September 21, 1992 (mission requirement: 95% within +/- l km). During this period, a has varied within 7,714,429 +/- 7 m, while the inclination i periodically fluctuated in the range 66.0408 deg. +/- 0.0040 deg. The frozen orbit (required e < 0.001 and omega approximately equals to 90 deg.) has been maintained without any dedicated eccentricity maneuvers. The frozen eccentricity vector has completed two periodic cycles and it is currently tracing its third cycle (period approximately equals 26.7 months).

Individuals’ Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline

2013-01-01

Summary Little is known about the degree to which individuals are uncertain about their future Social Security benefits, how this varies within the U.S. population, and whether this uncertainty influences financial decisions related to retirement planning. To illuminate these issues, we present empirical evidence from the Health and Retirement Study Internet Survey and document systematic variation in respondents’ uncertainty about their future Social Security benefits by individual characteristics. We find that respondents with higher levels of uncertainty about future benefits hold a smaller share of their wealth in stocks. PMID:23914049

Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, T. B.; Forster, P. M.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Fläschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kirkevâg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Samset, B. H.; Shawki, D.; Shindell, D.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.

2018-03-01

Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.

Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.

PubMed

Luo, Pingping; Zhou, Meimei; Deng, Hongzhang; Lyu, Jiqiang; Cao, Wenqiang; Takara, Kaoru; Nover, Daniel; Geoffrey Schladow, S

2018-02-15

The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m 3 /s higher peak discharge in August and 7m 3 /s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fatigue risk management in aviation maintenance : current best practices and potential future countermeasures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-01

The unregulated hours and frequent night work characteristic of maintenance can produce significant levels of : employee fatigue, with a resultant risk of maintenance error. Fatigue Risk Management Systems (FRMS) are : widely used to manage fatigue a...

Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bole, Brian; Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George

2012-01-01

A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Adaptive fuzzy predictive sliding control of uncertain nonlinear systems with bound-known input delay.

PubMed

Khazaee, Mostafa; Markazi, Amir H D; Omidi, Ehsan

2015-11-01

In this paper, a new Adaptive Fuzzy Predictive Sliding Mode Control (AFP-SMC) is presented for nonlinear systems with uncertain dynamics and unknown input delay. The control unit consists of a fuzzy inference system to approximate the ideal linearization control, together with a switching strategy to compensate for the estimation errors. Also, an adaptive fuzzy predictor is used to estimate the future values of the system states to compensate for the time delay. The adaptation laws are used to tune the controller and predictor parameters, which guarantee the stability based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional. To evaluate the method effectiveness, the simulation and experiment on an overhead crane system are presented. According to the obtained results, AFP-SMC can effectively control the uncertain nonlinear systems, subject to input delays of known bound. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inspecting the School Plant. The Operation and Maintenance of Our Schools. Monograph 2. Bulletin No. 6105.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biwer-Al-Yacoubi, Connie

Two intruments for evaluating the school plant are presented in this monograph. The first enables districts to appraise the effectiveness of school maintenance programs and plan for future maintenance needs. The eight aspects of maintenance covered relate to the exterior of the building, the interior, special classrooms, the electrical system, the…

Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

Treesearch

Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

2012-01-01

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions....

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Treesearch

Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

2016-01-01

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

John W. Coulston; David N. Wear; James M. Vose

2015-01-01

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern...

Crew interface specifications development for inflight maintenance and stowage functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carl, J. G.

1974-01-01

Findings and data products developed during crew specification study for inflight maintenance and stowage functions are reported. From this information base, a family of data concepts to support crew inflight troubleshooting and corrective maintenance activities was developed and specified. Recommendations are made for the improvement of inflight maintenance planning, preparations and operations in future space flight programs through the establishment of an inflight maintenance organization and specific suggestions for techniques to improve the management of the inflight maintenance function.

Final Exam.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coullahan, Richard

1998-01-01

Explains the use of a maintenance-management assessment process that educational facility managers can use to improve facility conditions and to provide evidence for future capital investments in maintenance management. Discusses questions a maintenance-management audit can answer and describes how to analyze the data to gain maximum understanding…

Regenerating yellow birch in the Lake States

Treesearch

Richard M. Godman; Gayne G. Erdmann

1992-01-01

The future of the yellow birch supply in the Lake States is uncertain. Growing-stock volume has declined more than one third since 1963, prompting the search for better ways to handle the difficult job of regenerating the species.

Approximate Reasoning: Past, Present, Future

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-27

This note presents a personal view of the state of the art in the representation and manipulation of imprecise and uncertain information by automated ... processing systems. To contrast their objectives and characteristics with the sound deductive procedures of classical logic, methodologies developed

The ABPN Maintenance of Certification Program for Psychiatrists: Past History, Current Status, and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faulkner, Larry R.; Tivnan, Patricia W.; Winstead, Daniel K.; Reus, Victor I.; Andrade, Naleen N.; Brooks, Beth Ann; Colenda, Christopher C.; Mrazek, David A.; Reifler, Burton V.; Schneidman, Barbara

2008-01-01

Objective: To describe the American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology (ABPN) Maintenance of Certification Program, its underlying rationale, how it will be implemented now, and what it might look like in the future. Methods: The authors describe the philosophical foundation, specific components, and the implementation timeline of the ABPN…

Comparative Effectiveness of Renin-Angiotensin System Antagonists in Maintenance Dialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Shireman, Theresa I.; Mahnken, Jonathan D.; Phadnis, Milind A.; Ellerbeck, Edward F.; Wetmore, James B.

2017-01-01

Background/Aims Whether angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) are differentially associated with reductions in cardiovascular events and mortality in patients receiving maintenance dialysis is uncertain. We compared outcomes between ACE and ARB users among hypertensive, maintenance dialysis patients. Methods National retrospective cohort study of hypertensive, Medicare-Medicaid eligible patients initiating chronic dialysis between 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2005. The exposure of interest was new use of either an ACEI or ARB. Outcomes were all-cause mortality (ACM) and combined cardiovascular hospitalization or death (CV-endpoint). Cox proportion hazards models were used to compare the effect of ACEI vs ARB use on ACM and, separately, CV-endpoint. Results ACM models were based on 3,555 ACEI and 1,442 ARB new users, while CV-endpoint models included 3,289 ACEI and 1,346 ARB new users. After statistical adjustments, ACEI users had higher hazard ratios for ACM (AHR = 1.22, 99% CI 1.05–1.42) and CV-endpoint (AHR = 1.12, 99% CI 0.99–1.27). Conclusions Patients initiating maintenance dialysis who received an ACEI faced an increased risk for mortality and a trend towards an increased risk for CV-endpoints when compared to patients who received an ARB. Validation of these results in a rigorous clinical trial is warranted. PMID:27871075

Comparative Effectiveness of Renin-Angiotensin System Antagonists in Maintenance Dialysis Patients.

PubMed

Shireman, Theresa I; Mahnken, Jonathan D; Phadnis, Milind A; Ellerbeck, Edward F; Wetmore, James B

2016-01-01

Whether angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) are differentially associated with reductions in cardiovascular events and mortality in patients receiving maintenance dialysis is uncertain. We compared outcomes between ACE and ARB users among hypertensive, maintenance dialysis patients. National retrospective cohort study of hypertensive, Medicare-Medicaid eligible patients initiating chronic dialysis between 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2005. The exposure of interest was new use of either an ACEI or ARB. Outcomes were all-cause mortality (ACM) and combined cardiovascular hospitalization or death (CV-endpoint). Cox proportion hazards models were used to compare the effect of ACEI vs ARB use on ACM and, separately, CV-endpoint. ACM models were based on 3,555 ACEI and 1,442 ARB new users, while CV-endpoint models included 3,289 ACEI and 1,346 ARB new users. After statistical adjustments, ACEI users had higher hazard ratios for ACM (AHR = 1.22, 99% CI 1.05-1.42) and CV-endpoint (AHR = 1.12, 99% CI 0.99-1.27). Patients initiating maintenance dialysis who received an ACEI faced an increased risk for mortality and a trend towards an increased risk for CV-endpoints when compared to patients who received an ARB. Validation of these results in a rigorous clinical trial is warranted. © 2016 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

Putting Relationship Maintenance into Proper Perspectives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aleman, Carlos G.

Noting that scholars often agree that varying investigations of relationship maintenance are only different mappings of the same territory, this paper organizes and criticizes the literature on relationship change from a position that defines maintenance as behavior that functions to sustain interpersonal bonds towards future interaction. The…

Tools to support maintenance strategies under soft soil conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, J. W. M.; van Meerten, J. J.; Woning, M. P.; Eijbersen, M. J.; Huber, M.

2015-11-01

Costs for maintenance of infrastructure in municipalities with soft soil underground conditions, are estimated to be almost 40 % higher than in others. As a result, these municipalities meet financial problems that cause overdue maintenance. In some cases municipalities are even afraid to be unable to offer a minimum service level in future. In common, traditional practice, roads and sewerage systems have been constructed in trenches that consist of sandy material that replaces the upper meters of the soft soil. Under influence of its weight, this causes accelerated settlements of the construction. A number of alternative constructions have been developed, e.g. using light-weight materials to limit settlement velocity. In order to limit future maintenance costs, improvement of maintenance strategies is desired. Tools have been and will be developed to support municipalities in improving their maintenance strategies and save money by doing that. A model (BALANS) that weighs the attractiveness of alternative solutions under different soil, environmental and economic circumstances, will be presented.

Anticipated affective consequences of physical activity adoption and maintenance.

PubMed

Dunton, Genevieve Fridlund; Vaughan, Elaine

2008-11-01

The expected emotional consequences of future actions are thought to play an important role in health behavior change. This research examined whether anticipated affective consequences of success and failure vary across stages of physical activity change and differentially predict physical activity adoption as compared to maintenance. Using a prospective design over a 3-month period, a community sample of 329 healthy, middle-aged adults were assessed at 2 time points. Anticipated positive and negative emotions, stage of behavior change (precontemplation [PC], contemplation [C], preparation [P], action [A], maintenance [M]), and level of physical activity. At baseline, anticipated positive emotions were greater in C versus PC, whereas anticipated negative emotions were greater in M versus A and in M versus P. Higher anticipated positive but not negative emotions predicted physical activity adoption and maintenance after 3 months. Although the expected affective consequences of future success and failure differentiated among individuals in the early and later stages of physical activity change, respectively; only the anticipated affective consequences of success predicted future behavior.

EMMA: The expert system for munition maintenance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mullins, Barry E.

1988-01-01

Expert Missile Maintenance Aid (EMMA) is a first attempt to enhance maintenance of the tactical munition at the field and depot level by using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The ultimate goal of EMMA is to help a novice maintenance technician isolate and diagnose electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical equipment faults to the board/chassis level more quickly and consistently than the best human expert using the best currently available automatic test equipment (ATE). To this end, EMMA augments existing ATE with an expert system that captures the knowledge of design and maintenance experts. The EMMA program is described, including the evaluation of field-level expert system prototypes, the description of several study tasks performed during EMMA, and future plans for a follow-on program. This paper will briefly address several study tasks performed during EMMA. The paper concludes with a discussion of future plans for a follow-on program and other areas of concern.

Cognitive function and dialysis adequacy: no clear relationship.

PubMed

Giang, Lena M; Weiner, Daniel E; Agganis, Brian T; Scott, Tammy; Sorensen, Eric P; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J

2011-01-01

Cognitive impairment is common in hemodialysis patients and may be impacted by multiple patient and treatment characteristics. The impact of dialysis dose on cognitive function remains uncertain, particularly in the current era of increased dialysis dose and flux. We explored the cross-sectional relationship between dialysis adequacy and cognitive function in a cohort of maintenance hemodialysis patients. Adequacy was defined as the average of the 3 most proximate single pool Kt/V assessments. A detailed neurocognitive battery was administered during the 1st hour of dialysis. Multivariable linear regression models were adjusted for age, sex, education, race and other clinical and demographic characteristics. Among 273 patients who underwent cognitive testing, the mean (SD) age was 63 (17) years and the median dialysis duration was 13 months, 47% were woman, 22% were African American, and 48% had diabetes. The mean (SD) Kt/V was 1.51 (0.24). In univariate, parsimonious and multivariable models, there were no significant relationships between decreased cognitive function and lower Kt/V. In contrast to several older studies, there is no association between lower Kt/V and worse cognitive performance in the current era of increased dialysis dose. Future studies should address the longitudinal relationship between adequacy of dialysis and cognitive function to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Fixed Future and Uncertain Past: Theorems Explain Why It Is Often More Difficult to Reconstruct the Past Than to Predict the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alefeld, Goetz; Koshelev, Misha; Mayer, Guenter

1997-01-01

At first glance. it may seem that reconstructing the past is, in general, easier than predicting the future, because the past has already occurred and it has already left its traces, while the future is still yet to come, and so no traces of the future are available. However, in many real life situations, including problems from geophysics and celestial mechanics, reconstructing the past is much more computationally difficult than predicting the future. In this paper, we give an explanation of this difficulty. This explanation is given both on a formal level (as a theorem) and on the informal level (as a more intuitive explanation).

Facing an Uncertain Future.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

apparent coincidence that the same normalization should do for time and uncertainty with Kenneth Arrow, Michael Boskin, Frank Hahn, Hugh Rose, Amartya ... Sen , and John Wise at various times, and the possible relationship between the structure of a criterion function and an information tree such as that

A Methodology for Developing Army Acquisition Strategies for an Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

manuscript for publication. Acronyms ABP Assumption-Based Planning ACEIT Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tool ACR Armored Cavalry Regiment ACTD...decisions. For example, they employ the Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) to simplify life cycle cost estimates; other tools are

Living Well with a Serious Illness: Talking with Your Doctor When the Future Is Uncertain

MedlinePlus

... fears? Are you concerned about suffering? Maintaining your dignity? Being a burden to your family? • What is ... help people live their remaining life fully, in dignity, and with little or no pain and other ...

A critical needs assessment for collaborative ecotourism development linked to protected areas in Cross River State, Nigeria

Treesearch

Jeffrey J. Brooks; John Neary; Blessing E. Asuquo

2007-01-01

Nigeria has abundant natural resources, and the nation, working with its partners over the years, has made large strides toward conservation of this natural wealth, but the future of Nigeria's natural resources remains uncertain.

When, not if: The inescapability of an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Ballard, T.

2014-12-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of most scientific endeavours, and many political decisions must be made in the presence of scientific uncertainty. In the case of climate change, there is evidence that greater scientific uncertainty increases the risk associated with the impact of climate change. Scientific uncertainty thus provides an impetus for cutting emissions rather than delaying action. In contrast to those normative considerations, uncertainty is frequently cited in political and public discourse as a reason to delay mitigation. We examine ways in which this gap between public and scientific understanding of uncertainty can be bridged. In particular, we sought ways to communicate uncertainty in a way that better calibrates people's risk perceptions with the projected impact of climate change. We report two behavioural experiments in which uncertainty about the future was expressed either as outcome uncertainty or temporal uncertainty. The conventional presentation of uncertainty involves uncertainty about an outcome at a given time—for example, the range of possible sea level rise (say 50cm +/- 20cm) by a certain date. An alternative presentation of the same situation presents a certain outcome ("sea levels will rise by 50cm") but places the uncertainty into the time of arrival ("this may occur as early as 2040 or as late as 2080"). We presented participants with a series of statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification, and a decrease in artic sea ice. In the uncertain magnitude condition, the statements and graphs reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected magnitude and the mean projected time of arrival. In the uncertain time of arrival condition, they reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival and the mean projected magnitude. The results show that when uncertainty was presented as uncertain time of arrival rather than an uncertain outcome, people expressed greater concern about the projected outcomes. In a further experiment involving repeated "games" with a simulated economy, we similarly showed that people allocate more resources to mitigation if there is uncertainty about the timing of an adverse event rather than about the magnitude of its impact.

The Role of Threat Level and Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) in Anxiety: An Experimental Test of IU Theory.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary E; Schmidt, Norman B

2017-07-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed as an important transdiagnostic variable within mood- and anxiety-related disorders. The extant literature has suggested that individuals high in IU interpret uncertainty more negatively. Furthermore, theoretical models of IU posit that those elevated in IU may experience an uncertain threat as more anxiety provoking than a certain threat. However, no research to date has experimentally manipulated the certainty of an impending threat while utilizing an in vivo stressor. In the current study, undergraduate participants (N = 79) were randomized to one of two conditions: certain threat (participants were told that later on in the study they would give a 3-minute speech) or uncertain threat (participants were told that later on in the study they would flip a coin to determine whether or not they would give a 3-minute speech). Participants also completed self-report questionnaires measuring their baseline state anxiety, baseline trait IU, and prespeech state anxiety. Results indicated that trait IU was associated with greater state anticipatory anxiety when the prospect of giving a speech was made uncertain (i.e., uncertain condition). Further, findings indicated no significant difference in anticipatory state anxiety among individuals high in IU when comparing an uncertain versus certain threat (i.e., uncertain and certain threat conditions, respectively). Furthermore, results found no significant interaction between condition and trait IU when predicting state anticipatory anxiety. This investigation is the first to test a crucial component of IU theory while utilizing an ecologically valid paradigm. Results of the present study are discussed in terms of theoretical models of IU and directions for future work. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Appropriateness criteria predict outcomes for sinus surgery and may aid in future patient selection.

PubMed

Beswick, Daniel M; Mace, Jess C; Soler, Zachary M; Ayoub, Noel F; Rudmik, Luke; DeConde, Adam S; Smith, Timothy L

2018-05-14

Appropriateness criteria to determine surgical candidacy for chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) have recently been described. This study stratified patients who underwent endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) according to these new appropriateness criteria and evaluated postoperative improvements among appropriateness categories. Adult patients with uncomplicated CRS electing ESS were prospectively enrolled in a multi-institutional cohort study between March 2011 and June 2015 to assess outcomes. Subsequently, appropriateness criteria that consider preoperative medical therapy, 22-item SinoNasal Outcome Test (SNOT-22) scores, and Lund-Mackay computed tomography scores were retrospectively applied. A total of 92.6% (436 of 471) were categorized as "appropriate" ESS candidates, 3.8% (18 of 471) as "uncertain," and 3.6% (17 of 471) as "inappropriate." Among uncertain patients, two-thirds (12 of 18) had identifiable reasons for undergoing ESS, most commonly oral corticosteroid intolerance (n = 6). Postoperative follow-up was available for 79% (n = 372). Clinically significant SNOT-22 improvements occurred in both appropriate and uncertain groups (all P < 0.050) but not among the inappropriate group. The inappropriate group reported less mean improvement in SNOT-22 total score compared to appropriate (P = 0.008) and uncertain (P = 0.006) groups. The vast majority of patients (∼93%) who underwent ESS in a multi-institutional research program were identified as appropriate candidates for surgical intervention, as defined by current appropriateness criteria. Valid considerations frequently exist for offering ESS to patients categorized as uncertain. Appropriate and uncertain candidates report similar, clinically significant SNOT-22 improvements following surgery. Patients classified as inappropriate reported significantly less improvement following ESS. Surgical appropriateness criteria may assist in predicting outcomes of ESS. 2b. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Uncertainty: the Curate's egg in financial economics.

PubMed

Pixley, Jocelyn

2014-06-01

Economic theories of uncertainty are unpopular with financial experts. As sociologists, we rightly refuse predictions, but the uncertainties of money are constantly sifted and turned into semi-denial by a financial economics set on somehow beating the future. Picking out 'bits' of the future as 'risk' and 'parts' as 'information' is attractive but socially dangerous, I argue, because money's promises are always uncertain. New studies of uncertainty are reversing sociology's neglect of the unavoidable inability to know the forces that will shape the financial future. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2014.

Present Status and Future Growth of Advanced Maintenance Technology and Strategy in US Manufacturing.

PubMed

Jin, Xiaoning; Weiss, Brian A; Siegel, David; Lee, Jay

2016-01-01

The goals of this paper are to 1) examine the current practices of diagnostics, prognostics, and maintenance employed by United States (U.S.) manufacturers to achieve productivity and quality targets and 2) to understand the present level of maintenance technologies and strategies that are being incorporated into these practices. A study is performed to contrast the impact of various industry-specific factors on the effectiveness and profitability of the implementation of prognostics and health management technologies, and maintenance strategies using both surveys and case studies on a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms ranging from small to mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) to large-sized manufacturing enterprises in various industries. The results obtained provide important insights on the different impacts of specific factors on the successful adoption of these technologies between SMEs and large manufacturing enterprises. The varying degrees of success with respect to current maintenance programs highlight the opportunity for larger manufacturers to improve maintenance practices and consider the use of advanced prognostics and health management (PHM) technology. This paper also provides the existing gaps, barriers, future trends, and roadmaps for manufacturing PHM technology and maintenance strategy.

Present Status and Future Growth of Advanced Maintenance Technology and Strategy in US Manufacturing

PubMed Central

Jin, Xiaoning; Weiss, Brian A.; Siegel, David; Lee, Jay

2016-01-01

The goals of this paper are to 1) examine the current practices of diagnostics, prognostics, and maintenance employed by United States (U.S.) manufacturers to achieve productivity and quality targets and 2) to understand the present level of maintenance technologies and strategies that are being incorporated into these practices. A study is performed to contrast the impact of various industry-specific factors on the effectiveness and profitability of the implementation of prognostics and health management technologies, and maintenance strategies using both surveys and case studies on a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms ranging from small to mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) to large-sized manufacturing enterprises in various industries. The results obtained provide important insights on the different impacts of specific factors on the successful adoption of these technologies between SMEs and large manufacturing enterprises. The varying degrees of success with respect to current maintenance programs highlight the opportunity for larger manufacturers to improve maintenance practices and consider the use of advanced prognostics and health management (PHM) technology. This paper also provides the existing gaps, barriers, future trends, and roadmaps for manufacturing PHM technology and maintenance strategy. PMID:28058173

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

PubMed

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions.

Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

the administration’s plans to de - ploy BMD components in Bulgaria and Romania by 2015, and has fiercely criticized global zero both in terms of the...Military Doctrine, Moscow tried to fight off politically and diplomatically the expanding U.S. BMD program and, in particular, U.S. plans to de - ploy a...has encountered major de - lays and its future remains uncertain. Modernization of the air leg has been postponed—Russia plans to rely on existing

The Future of Character Education and Social-Emotional Learning: "The Need for Whole School and Community-Linked Approaches"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elias, Maurice J.

2014-01-01

In an era of change, preparing our youth for an uncertain future is akin to building the airplane while it is in flight. Since we do not have the luxury of putting development on hold until we figure out the destination and the kind of plane we need to get there, we must fly anyway. This article employs an airplane analogy to illustrate the fact…

Population, Resources, Environment: An Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Repetto, Robert

1987-01-01

The links between population growth, resource use, and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalizations about causal relationships. However, rapid population growth has increased the number of poor people in developing countries, thus contributing to the degradation of the environment and the renewable resources of…

Toward Sustainable Water Resource Management: Challenges and Opportunities

EPA Science Inventory

The United States has derived significant economic benefit from an abundant and high-quality water supply. The ability of the nation to continue this pace into the future is uncertain because of a number of significant challenges. These include increasing water demand because of ...

EPA'S ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS BRANCH: PLANNING FOR AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

EPA Science Inventory

The seminar will address two topics: 1) a brief overview of Dr. Hammer’s professional experiences that preceded his appointment with the Environmental Protection Agency; and 2) a summary of current projects being planned by the Ecological Effects Branch of the Environmental Prote...

Evaluating Urban Resilience to Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Approach (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change impacts are diverse, long-term, and not easily predictable. Adapting to climate change requires making context specific and forward-looking decisions regarding a variety of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities when the future is highly uncertain. EPA scientis...

Transportation planning implications of automated/connected vehicles on Texas highways : project summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

Through outreach to stakeholders during the workshops, researchers found that there is a need to be able to explain AV/CV technology and its impacts on long-range transportation plans. Given that the future is uncertain, planners either choose to ign...

77 FR 73976 - Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forests; Idaho; Crooked River Valley Rehabilitation Project

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-12

... maintenance of the road. Proposed Action The proposed action is to rehabilitate the lower two miles of the... from the road, improve forest visitor safety, and provide easier maintenance of the road. The proposed... the effects to cultural resources, public access, and future road maintenance costs. Permits or...

17 CFR 18.05 - Maintenance of books and records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Maintenance of books and... REPORTS BY TRADERS § 18.05 Maintenance of books and records. (a) Every trader who holds or controls a reportable futures or option position shall keep books and records showing all details concerning all...

17 CFR 18.05 - Maintenance of books and records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Maintenance of books and... REPORTS BY TRADERS § 18.05 Maintenance of books and records. (a) Every trader who holds or controls a reportable futures or option position shall keep books and records showing all details concerning all...

17 CFR 18.05 - Maintenance of books and records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Maintenance of books and... REPORTS BY TRADERS § 18.05 Maintenance of books and records. (a) Every trader who holds or controls a reportable futures or option position shall keep books and records showing all details concerning all...

17 CFR 18.05 - Maintenance of books and records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Maintenance of books and... REPORTS BY TRADERS § 18.05 Maintenance of books and records. (a) Every trader who holds or controls a reportable futures or option position shall keep books and records showing all details concerning all...

Future hotspots of increasing temperature variability in tropical countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathiany, S.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

Resolving how climate variability will change in future is crucial to determining how challenging it will be for societies and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. We show that the largest increases in temperature variability - that are robust between state-of-the art climate models - are concentrated in tropical countries. On average, temperature variability increases by 15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa during austral summer, and by up to 10% °C-1 in the Sahel, India and South East Asia. Southern hemisphere changes can be explained by drying soils, whereas shifts in atmospheric structure play a more important role in the Northern hemisphere. These robust regional changes in variability are associated with monthly timescale events, whereas uncertain changes in inter-annual modes of variability make the response of global temperature variability uncertain. Our results suggest that regional changes in temperature variability will create new inequalities in climate change impacts between rich and poor nations.

Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE PAGES

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; ...

2016-06-03

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Robust preview control for a class of uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Li, Li; Liao, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This paper proposes a concept of robust preview tracking control for uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay. Firstly, a model transformation is employed for an uncertain discrete system with time-varying delay. Then, the auxiliary variables related to the system state and input are introduced to derive an augmented error system that includes future information on the reference signal. This leads to the tracking problem being transformed into a regulator problem. Finally, for the augmented error system, a sufficient condition of asymptotic stability is derived and the preview controller design method is proposed based on the scaled small gain theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. The method proposed in this paper not only solves the difficulty problem of applying the difference operator to the time-varying matrices but also simplifies the structure of the augmented error system. The numerical simulation example also illustrates the effectiveness of the results presented in the paper. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expected value analysis for integrated supplier selection and inventory control of multi-product inventory system with fuzzy cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno, Widowati, Tjahjana, R. Heru

2017-12-01

The future cost in many industrial problem is obviously uncertain. Then a mathematical analysis for a problem with uncertain cost is needed. In this article, we deals with the fuzzy expected value analysis to solve an integrated supplier selection and supplier selection problem with uncertain cost where the costs uncertainty is approached by a fuzzy variable. We formulate the mathematical model of the problems fuzzy expected value based quadratic optimization with total cost objective function and solve it by using expected value based fuzzy programming. From the numerical examples result performed by the authors, the supplier selection problem was solved i.e. the optimal supplier was selected for each time period where the optimal product volume of all product that should be purchased from each supplier for each time period was determined and the product stock level was controlled as decided by the authors i.e. it was followed the given reference level.

The Coming Paradigm-Shift in Maintenance: From Metals to Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hobbs, Alan; Brasil, Connie; Kanki, Barbara

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the current maintenance practices of airline operators in the detection and repair of damage to composite structures, with the aim of learning lessons that will be applicable to the maintenance of future advanced composite airplanes. A process map was created to capture the events and activities that occur from the moment a damage event occurs, through damage detection, assessment and repair. The study is identifying areas where operational risks may negatively impact the process, where personnel are required to make judgments in the absence of procedural guidance, and areas where future tools or techniques may be of assistance.

Teacher Education in the United States of America, 2011

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Imig, David; Wiseman, Donna; Imig, Scott

2011-01-01

Teacher education in the USA is faced with an uncertain future. Unprecedented efforts on the part of government, philanthropic foundations, social entrepreneurs, professional societies and others are reshaping the enterprise. Warring camps have emerged to promote decidedly different visions for teacher education, with university-based teacher…

Occupational Education Today. New Directions for Community Colleges, Number 33.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arns, Kathleen F., Ed.

1981-01-01

This collection of essays examines issues that educators must address to maintain occupational education's prominent role in the future. Kathleen F. Arns considers the implications of uncertain enrollment patterns, changing delivery systems, an uneasy economic climate, government policies, and collaboration efforts. The history of occupational…

PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY IN HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY MODELING: APPROACHES, APPLICATION TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, AND FUTURE CHALLENGES (PRESENTATION)

EPA Science Inventory

Extant process-based hydrologic and water quality models are indispensable to water resources planning and environmental management. However, models are only approximations of real systems and often calibrated with incomplete and uncertain data. Reliable estimates, or perhaps f...

PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY IN HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY MODELING: APPROACHES, APPLICATION TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

EPA Science Inventory

Extant process-based hydrologic and water quality models are indispensable to water resources planning and environmental management. However, models are only approximations of real systems and often calibrated with incomplete and uncertain data. Reliable estimates, or perhaps f...

Polymerization of epoxidized triglycerides with fluorosulfonic acid

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The use of triglycerides as agri-based renewable raw materials for the development of new products is highly desirable in view of uncertain future petroleum prices. A new method of polymerizing epoxidized soybean oil has been devised with the use of fluorosulfonic acid. Depending on the reaction con...

Scholarly Groups' Choices Yield Diverging Fortunes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berrett, Dan

2012-01-01

Scholarly groups have long served as hubs of academic life and the embodiments of their disciplines, but they face uncertain and divergent futures. Some disciplinary associations are struggling to remain relevant and financially viable as demographic and technological changes threaten their traditional sources of revenue. The core of their…

Transportation Efficiency Act to End Oil Addiction: Securing America’s Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-17

250 to $300 billion.20 These numbers represent an uneasy dependence that the nation maintains on foreign suppliers. General Charles Wald , USAF (RET... Lisa A, The Geopolitics of Energy: Emerging Trends, Changing Landscapes, Uncertain Times (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International

Contextual Uncertainties, Human Mobility, and Perceived Food Environment: The Uncertain Geographic Context Problem in Food Access Research.

PubMed

Chen, Xiang; Kwan, Mei-Po

2015-09-01

We examined the uncertainty of the contextual influences on food access through an analytic framework of the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP). We first examined the compounding effects of two kinds of spatiotemporal uncertainties on people's everyday efforts to procure food and then outlined three key dimensions (food access in real time, temporality of the food environment, and perceived nutrition environment) in which research on food access must improve to better represent the contributing environmental influences that operate at the individual level. Guidelines to address the UGCoP in future food access research are provided to account for the multidimensional influences of the food environment on dietary behaviors.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng; Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay

PubMed Central

Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

2016-01-01

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method. PMID:27669005

Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2015-10-01

Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

An uncertain dominion: Irish psychiatry, methadone, and the treatment of opiate abuse.

PubMed

Saris, A Jamie

2008-06-01

This paper investigates some productive ambiguities around the medical administration of methadone in the Republic of Ireland. The tensions surrounding methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) are outlined, as well as the sociohistorical context in which a serious heroin addiction problem in Ireland developed. Irish psychiatry intervened in this situation, during a time of institutional change, debates concerning the nature of addiction, moral panics concerning heroin addiction in Irish society and the recent boom in the Irish economy, known popularly as the Celtic Tiger. A particular history of this sort illuminates how technologies like MMT become cosmopolitan, settling into, while changing, local contexts.

Department of the Navy Justification of Estimates for Fiscal Year 1987 Submitted to Congress February 1986. Operation & Maintenance, Navy. Book 3. Budget Activity 3: Intelligence & Communications Budget Activity 8: Training, Medical & OGPA Budget Activity 9: Administration & Assoc Acts. Budget Activity 10: Support to Other Nations

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

ionospheric sensing 118 I device, provide more reliable comnunications, especially when HF propagation is uncertain, by determining which frequencies...the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center computer systems. GDEM generates a sound velocity profile from the surface to the sea floor at every 1/2...degrees of lat/log for the Northern Hemisphere oceans. GDEM is a Navy standard data base for all acoustic models. 18) Software Improvement Plan (SIP) as 600

Where We Are Now

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guth, Douglas J.

2017-01-01

In 2012, the American Association of Community Colleges (AACC) released a report stating, in no uncertain terms, that "the American dream is imperiled." Data supporting this declaration highlighted a sagging economy and a record number of Americans who had fallen into poverty. A product of the 21st-Century Commission on the Future of…

Hazardous fuel treatments, suppression cost impacts, and risk mitigation

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Michael S. Hand; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Nicole M. Vaillant; Darek J. Nalle

2013-01-01

Land management agencies face uncertain tradeoffs regarding investments in preparedness and fuels management versus future suppression costs and impacts to valued resources and assets. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatments allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, and can facilitate tradeoff analysis...

Observations on Leadership, Problem Solving, and Preferred Futures of Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puncochar, Judith

2013-01-01

A focus on enrollments, rankings, uncertain budgets, and branding efforts to operate universities could have serious implications for discussions of sustainable solutions to complex problems and the decision-making processes of leaders. The Authentic Leadership Model for framing ill-defined problems in higher education is posited to improve the…

Distribution of Pacific Marten in Coastal Oregon

Treesearch

Katie M Moriarty; John D Bailey; Sharon E Smythe; Jake Verschuyl

2016-01-01

Information on the distribution of rare and little known species is critical for managers and biologists challenged with species conservation in an uncertain future. Pacific Martens (Martes caurina) historically resided throughout Oregon and northern California’s coastal forests, but were considered extinct until 1996 when a population in northern...

Britain and Energy Policy: Problems of Interdependence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, John

1973-01-01

Discusses Britain's energy policies and changing energy sources since World War II. North Sea natural gas and oil should prevent shortages in the near future. Planning is complicated by Britain's entry into the European Common Market, questionable progress in nuclear production, and the uncertain availability of Middle Eastern oil. (JR)

Valuing Initial Teacher Education at Master's Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, Clare; Brant, Jacek; Abrahams, Ian; Yandell, John

2012-01-01

The future of Master's-level work in initial teacher education (ITE) in England seems uncertain. Whilst the coalition government has expressed support for Master's-level work, its recent White Paper focuses on teaching skills as the dominant form of professional development. This training discourse is in tension with the view of professional…

USING SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR ESTIMATING IMPACTS TO GROUND WATER AT PETROLEUM RELEASE SITES - WORKSHOP

EPA Science Inventory

Regulators and consultants alike are routinely tasked with predicting potential future impacts to ground water resources from leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. Site data is usually sparse, variable, and uncertain at best. However, this type of data can be evaluated ...

Soil modulates the effect of precipitation seasonality on bioenergy crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Questions/Methods Future climate change scenarios remain uncertain with respect to precipitation amounts and variability. In the U.S. Great Plains, spring precipitation is expected to decrease in the lower Great Plains but increase 20%–40% in the upper Mississippi Valley, suggesting pot...

How to Survive the Next Five Years.

PubMed

Jackson, Rem

2016-01-01

The rapid pace of change in medical practice combined with increasingly heavy regulation has created a negative mindset for many practitioners. Although the future of medical practice is uncertain, there are fundamentals that, if understood, can ensure the success of private practitioners. These include efficient practice management and effective practice marketing.

Nonflammable Substitute for PCB Introduced in U.K.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chemical and Engineering News, 1984

1984-01-01

Discusses employment prospects for chemists and chemical engineers working in energy research and development (R & D) based on the Department of Energy report "Energy-related Manpower, 1983." Indicates that conclusions related to R & D funding and employment are uncertain because of the difficulty in predicting future changes in…

Does Mother Nature Really Sell Margarine?: The Uncertain Rural Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Peter

There exists a question as to whether United States society and its agricultural system will continue to follow the long-term trend of Western civilization or move in a new direction. The "modernization trend" of Western civilization has 4 components: scientification of knowledge, secularization of human values, industrialization of…

Towards the Discovery of Learner Metacognition from Reflective Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson, Andrew; Kitto, Kirsty; Bruza, Peter

2016-01-01

Modern society demands renewed attention on the competencies required to best equip students for a dynamic and uncertain future. We present exploratory work based on the premise that metacognitive and reflective competencies are essential for this task. Bringing the concepts of metacognition and reflection together into a conceptual model within…

Getting Started

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sommers, Dixie

2012-01-01

In an uncertain economy, reliable information about tomorrow's labor market can be a valuable tool in career planning. Understanding the future workforce helps an individual prepare for his/her place in it. When choosing among careers--or assisting others who are making such choices--it helps to know a few basics: the types and number of jobs…

Industry and the Academy: An Uncertain Alliance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drake, R. M., Jr.

1974-01-01

Discusses the divergence in interest and philosophy between the academy and industry, beginning with World War II. Suggests that engineering faculties and industry take measures to restore their rapport which is necessary for the technological society to ensure a success in man's quest for future well being and progress. (CC)

A Foot in the Door of an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Bill

2010-01-01

The infamous equivalent or lower qualifications (ELQs) regulation--the withdrawal of funding from students who have previously gained a higher education qualification--has cast a long shadow over adult continuing education in English higher education since its introduction in 2007. Together with the attack on funded adult provision in local…

Long-term thinning alters ponderosa pine reproduction in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Kelsey N. Flathers; Thomas E. Kolb; John B. Bradford; Kristen M. Waring; W. Keith Moser

2016-01-01

The future of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) forests in the southwestern United States is uncertain because climate-change-induced stresses are expected to increase tree mortality and place greater constraints on regeneration. Silvicultural treatments, which include thinning, are increasingly being used to address forest health concerns by...

Interpreting energy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

The Uncertain Future of the Central City.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sternlieb, George; Hughes, James W.

This paper describes the decline and polarization of American cities into two separate and coterminous systems: the city of the poor, characterized by the function of redistribution (i.e., public welfare benefits); and the city of the elite, a city of information processing, economic facilitation, and consumption. Demographic trends and social and…

Impacts of Future Climate, Emission, and Land Use Changes on Aerosols and Air Quality over the Continental

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in climate, emission, and land use in the U.S. over the next century are imminent. The response of geologic, biogenic, and anthropogenic aerosol to interactions between these changes, however, are more uncertain and difficult to quantify. To explore these interactions, ...

National airspace system : FAA reauthorization issues are critical to system transformation and operations statement of Gerald L. Dillingham, Ph.D.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-02-01

As requested, this statement discusses issues for the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The aviation industry is in a period of economic turmoil and faces an : uncertain future. At the same time, FAA is undertaking one of ...

Mobile Media Best Practices: Lessons From 5 Years of "OR Magazine"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Madison, Ed

2015-01-01

Digital publications now provide immersive interactive experiences for users of tablets and other mobile media devices. The ever-changing technology challenges educators to adapt curricula to better prepare students for an uncertain future. This article chronicles the creation of award-winning "OR Magazine" at University of Oregon, which…

Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies like social protection or migration, under many future scenarios.

Future Software Sizing Metrics and Estimation Challenges

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

systems 4. Ultrahigh software system assurance 5. Legacy maintenance and Brownfield development 6. Agile and Lean/ Kanban development. This paper...refined as the design of the maintenance modifications or Brownfield re-engineering is determined. VII. 6. AGILE AND LEAN/ KANBAN DEVELOPMENT The...difficulties of software maintenance estimation can often be mitigated by using lean workflow management techniques such as Kanban [25]. In Kanban

Impact of Eliminating Anchor Items Flagged from Statistical Criteria on Test Score Classifications in Common Item Equating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karkee, Thakur; Choi, Seung

2005-01-01

Proper maintenance of a scale established in the baseline year would assure the accurate estimation of growth in subsequent years. Scale maintenance is especially important when the state performance standards must be preserved for future administrations. To ensure proper maintenance of a scale, the selection of anchor items and evaluation of…

Risk assessment can be a game-changing information technology--but too often it isn't.

PubMed

Goble, Robert; Bier, Vicki M

2013-11-01

The printing press was a game-changing information technology. Risk assessment could be also. At present, risk assessments are commonly used as one-time decision aids: they provide justification for a particular decision, and afterwards usually sit on a shelf. However, when viewed as information technologies, their potential uses are much broader. Risk assessments: (1) are repositories of structured information and a medium for communication; (2) embody evaluative structures for setting priorities; (3) can preserve information over time and permit asynchronous communication, thus encouraging learning and adaptation; and (4) explicitly address uncertain futures. Moreover, because of their "what-if" capabilities, risk assessments can serve as a platform for constructive discussion among parties that hold different values. The evolution of risk assessment in the nuclear industry shows how such attributes have been used to lower core-melt risks substantially through improved templates for maintenance and more effective coordination with regulators (although risk assessment has been less commonly used in improving emergency-response capabilities). The end result of this evolution in the nuclear industry has been the development of "living" risk assessments that are updated more or less in real time to answer even routine operational questions. Similar but untapped opportunities abound for the use of living risk assessments to reduce risks in small operational decisions as well as large policy decisions in other areas of hazard management. They can also help improve understanding of and communication about risks, and future risk assessment and management. Realization of these opportunities will require significant changes in incentives and active promotion by the risk analytic community. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climate change in Brazil: perspective on the biogeochemistry of inland waters.

PubMed

Roland, F; Huszar, V L M; Farjalla, Vf; Enrich-Prast, A; Amado, A M; Ometto, J P H B

2012-08-01

Although only a small amount of the Earth's water exists as continental surface water bodies, this compartment plays an important role in the biogeochemical cycles connecting the land to the atmosphere. The territory of Brazil encompasses a dense river net and enormous number of shallow lakes. Human actions have been heavily influenced by the inland waters across the country. Both biodiversity and processes in the water are strongly driven by seasonal fluvial forces and/or precipitation. These macro drivers are sensitive to climate changes. In addition to their crucial importance to humans, inland waters are extremely rich ecosystems, harboring high biodiversity, promoting landscape equilibrium (connecting ecosystems, maintaining animal and plant flows in the landscape, and transferring mass, nutrients and inocula), and controlling regional climates through hydrological-cycle feedback. In this contribution, we describe the aquatic ecological responses to climate change in a conceptual perspective, and we then analyze the possible climate-change scenarios in different regions in Brazil. We also indentify some potential biogeochemical signals in running waters, natural lakes and man-made impoundments. The possible future changes in climate and aquatic ecosystems in Brazil are highly uncertain. Inland waters are pressured by local environmental changes because of land uses, landscape fragmentation, damming and diversion of water bodies, urbanization, wastewater load, and level of pollutants can alter biogeochemical patterns in inland waters over a shorter term than can climate changes. In fact, many intense environmental changes may enhance the effects of changes in climate. Therefore, the maintenance of key elements within the landscape and avoiding extreme perturbation in the systems are urgent to maintain the sustainability of Brazilian inland waters, in order to prevent more catastrophic future events.

Artificial Intelligent Platform as Decision Tool for Asset Management, Operations and Maintenance.

PubMed

2018-01-04

An Artificial Intelligence (AI) system has been developed and implemented for water, wastewater and reuse plants to improve management of sensors, short and long term maintenance plans, asset and investment management plans. It is based on an integrated approach to capture data from different computer systems and files. It adds a layer of intelligence to the data. It serves as a repository of key current and future operations and maintenance conditions that a plant needs have knowledge of. With this information, it is able to simulate the configuration of processes and assets for those conditions to improve or optimize operations, maintenance and asset management, using the IViewOps (Intelligent View of Operations) model. Based on the optimization through model runs, it is able to create output files that can feed data to other systems and inform the staff regarding optimal solutions to the conditions experienced or anticipated in the future.

For wind turbines in complex terrain, the devil is in the detail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Julia; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob; Parvu, Dan; Kilpatrick, Ryan; Costache, Adrian; Chowdhury, Jubayer; Siddiqui, Kamran; Hangan, Horia

2017-09-01

The cost of energy produced by onshore wind turbines is among the lowest available; however, onshore wind turbines are often positioned in a complex terrain, where the wind resources and wind conditions are quite uncertain due to the surrounding topography and/or vegetation. In this study, we use a scale model in a three-dimensional wind-testing chamber to show how minor changes in the terrain can result in significant differences in the flow at turbine height. These differences affect not only the power performance but also the life-time and maintenance costs of wind turbines, and hence, the economy and feasibility of wind turbine projects. We find that the mean wind, wind shear and turbulence level are extremely sensitive to the exact details of the terrain: a small modification of the edge of our scale model, results in a reduction of the estimated annual energy production by at least 50% and an increase in the turbulence level by a factor of five in the worst-case scenario with the most unfavorable wind direction. Wind farm developers should be aware that near escarpments destructive flows can occur and their extent is uncertain thus warranting on-site field measurements.

Experimental gravitation in space - Is there a future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wharton, R. A.; McKay, C. P.; Mancinelli, R. L.; Simmons, G. M.

Experimental gravitation enters the 1990s with a past full of successes, but with a future full of uncertainties. Intellectually, the field is as vigorous as ever, with major thrusts in three main areas: the search for gravitational radiation, the study of post and post-post Newtonian effects, and the detection of hypothetical feeble new interactions. It is the only branch of space research involved in fundamental physics. But politically and financially, the future is uncertain. Competition for funding and for flight opportunities will be stiff for the foreseeable future, both with other disciplines such as astrophysics, planetary science and the military, and within experimental gravitation itself. Difficult choices lie ahead. This paper reviews the current state of the field and attempts to peer into the future.

Where are the future transit maintenance technicians coming from?

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

This report identifies and addresses many of the key factors that affect the transit maintenance technicians of today and the issues that affect their employment. Researchers assigned to this project used information and research from census data and...

25 CFR 170.806 - What is an IRR Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management System?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... AND WATER INDIAN RESERVATION ROADS PROGRAM BIA Road Maintenance § 170.806 What is an IRR... facility, ensure safety, and report future funding needs to the Secretary. BIA will develop the IRR TFMMS. ...

A new framework for quantifying uncertainties in modelling studies for future climates - how more certain are CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations compared to CMIP3?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sivakumar, B.; Mehrotra, R.

2014-12-01

We outline a new framework for assessing uncertainties in model simulations, be they hydro-ecological simulations for known scenarios, or climate simulations for assumed scenarios representing the future. This framework is illustrated here using GCM projections for future climates for hydrologically relevant variables (precipitation and temperature), with the uncertainty segregated into three dominant components - model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty (representing greenhouse gas emission scenarios), and ensemble uncertainty (representing uncertain initial conditions and states). A novel uncertainty metric, the Square Root Error Variance (SREV), is used to quantify the uncertainties involved. The SREV requires: (1) Interpolating raw and corrected GCM outputs to a common grid; (2) Converting these to percentiles; (3) Estimating SREV for model, scenario, initial condition and total uncertainty at each percentile; and (4) Transforming SREV to a time series. The outcome is a spatially varying series of SREVs associated with each model that can be used to assess how uncertain the system is at each simulated point or time. This framework, while illustrated in a climate change context, is completely applicable for assessment of uncertainties any modelling framework may be subject to. The proposed method is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature from 6 CMIP3 and 13 CMIP5 GCMs across the world. For CMIP3, B1, A1B and A2 scenarios whereas for CMIP5, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representing low, medium and high emissions are considered. For both CMIP3 and CMIP5, model structure is the largest source of uncertainty, which reduces significantly after correcting for biases. Scenario uncertainly increases, especially for temperature, in future due to divergence of the three emission scenarios analysed. While CMIP5 precipitation simulations exhibit a small reduction in total uncertainty over CMIP3, there is almost no reduction observed for temperature projections. Estimation of uncertainty in both space and time sheds lights on the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainties in GCM outputs, providing an effective platform for risk-based assessments of any alternate plans or decisions that may be formulated using GCM simulations.

Vet Tech Field Beckons, Even in an Uncertain Economy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frederick, Bill

2010-01-01

In a time of rising unemployment and increasing economic uncertainty, some fields still beckon with promises of continued growth, bright futures and handsome paychecks. And one of the most promising of all is the field of veterinary technology. This article features the Veterinary Technology Program at St. Petersburg College (SPC) in Florida.…

Stories Lost and Found: Mobilizing Imagination in Literacy Research and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Enciso, Patricia E.

2017-01-01

As literacy scholars, we continually engage with the ongoing politics of imagination in everyday life across silenced histories and uncertain futures. In this article, I draw on sociocultural theories and philosophies of imagination as well as narrative and global discourse theories to argue that literacy research, in the context of social…

Education for Sustainable Development: Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation Expertise in Developing Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fahey, Shireen; Verstraten, Luke; Berry, Ashton J.

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of an innovative education capacity assessment and delivery project to promote sustainable development in large ocean states in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region. Science education can help prepare the present and coming generations for stability in an uncertain future. Limited financial, geographical and…

The Politics of Science Funding: Is the Fault in Our Stars?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldston, David

2018-01-01

Future levels of funding for the astronomical and other sciences seem more uncertain than ever. What factors are responsible and which can scientists do something about? The story is much more complicated -- and fluid -- than the simple narrative about an "anti-science" political atmosphere that scientists sometimes settle on.

Analysis of market penetration of renewable energy alternatives under uncertain and carbon constrained world

EPA Science Inventory

Future energy prices and supply, availability and costs can have a significant impact on how fast and cost effectively we could abate carbon emissions. Two-staged decision making methods embedded in U.S. EPA's MARKAL modeling system will be utilized to find the most robust mitig...

The Role of the Teacher in an Uncertain World.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shapiro, Leo J.; Rodin, Mimi

This paper presents the results of a series of surveys designed to determine the attitudes of parents of school-aged children and other adults toward schools and their children's future, with a view toward offering encouragement to beginning teachers. Cross sections of the population were sampled nationwide, throughout the state of Illinois, and…

Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change

Treesearch

Seth J. Wenger; Nicholas A. Som; Daniel C. Dauwalter; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville; Charles H. Luce; Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Kurt D. Fausch; Bruce E. Rieman

2013-01-01

Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing...

Pacific Yew: A Facultative Riparian Conifer with an Uncertain Future

Treesearch

Stanley Scher; Bert Schwarzschild

1989-01-01

Increasing demands for Pacific yew bark, a source of an anticancer agent, have generated interest in defining the yew resource and in exploring strategies to conserve this species. The distribution, riparian requirements and ecosystem functions of yew populations in coastal and inland forests of northern California are outlined and alternative approaches to conserving...

Is There a History of Educational Philosophy? John White vs the Historical Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muir, James R.

2004-01-01

In his recent review of Amelie Rorty's collection, "Philosophers on Education: New Historical Perspectives," John White makes the uncontroversial observation that the future of philosophy of education within Educational Studies is uncertain. He chooses to be optimistic, hoping that "the climate in which philosophising about education, whether by…

Have Intellectual Freedom and Privacy Questions? Help Is on the Way!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Helen R.

2015-01-01

School librarians are experiencing upheaval and controversy in education today. They are coping with the implementation of (and battles over) the Common Core State Standards, the uncertain future of their jobs, and the rapidly changing nature of school libraries. Despite the flux and instability in education, the importance of intellectual freedom…

The Literary Anthology, Revised and Excised

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Jennifer

2007-01-01

This article reports that "The Norton Anthology of English Literature" has new competition in a genre with an uncertain future. The first edition of the Norton appeared in 1962. Since then, the mighty tome has gone through eight editions and introduced generations of undergraduates to the joys (or sorrows) of Chaucer, Milton, and Keats. For many,…

Accelerating the development of old-growth characteristics in second-growth northern hardwoods

Treesearch

Karin S. Fassnacht; Dustin R. Bronson; Brian J. Palik; Anthony W. D' Amato; Craig Lorimer; Karl J. Martin

2015-01-01

Active management techniques that emulate natural forest disturbance and stand development processes have the potential to enhance species diversity, structural complexity, and spatial heterogeneity in managed forests, helping to meet goals related to biodiversity, ecosystem health, and forest resilience in the face of uncertain future conditions. There are a number of...

An Uncertain Future. Review, 1975-76 to 1977-78.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Council of Ontario Universities, Toronto.

The development of the Ontario university system from 1975-76 to 1977-78 is traced, with focus on the deteriorating financial situation of the past few years and the impact of recently declining enrollments. The growth of cooperative activities among the universities has included the planning of graduate programs, library cataloging, instructional…

Unintended Consequences: An Uncertain Future for Distance Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halfond, Jay A.

2011-01-01

While most in the academic community know about the attempt to rein in the for-profits, few are aware of its collateral damage. In October, the Department of Education (DOE) issued its Program Integrity Rules, intended to protect federal funds especially from those for-profit institutions with high student loan default rates. Well-intentioned…

Steering the Ship through Uncertain Waters: Empirical Analysis and the Future of Evangelical Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rine, P. Jesse; Guthrie, David S.

2016-01-01

Leaders of evangelical Christian colleges must navigate a challenging environment shaped by public concern about college costs and educational quality, federal inclinations toward increased regulation, and lingering fallout from the Great Recession. Proceeding from the premise that empirical analysis empowers institutional actors to lead well in…

Adaptive economic and ecological forest management under risk

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou

2015-01-01

Background: Forest managers must deal with inherently stochastic ecological and economic processes. The future growth of trees is uncertain, and so is their value. The randomness of low-impact, high frequency or rare catastrophic shocks in forest growth has significant implications in shaping the mix of tree species and the forest landscape...

Developing Second Graders' Creativity through Literacy-Science Integrated Lessons on Lifecycles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webb, Angela Naomi; Rule, Audrey C.

2012-01-01

Young children need to develop creative problem-solving skills to ensure success in an uncertain future workplace. Although most teachers recognize the importance of creativity, they do not always know how integrate it with content learning. This repeated measures study on animal and plant lifecycles examined student learning of vocabulary and…

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strat...

Maintaining the Marine Corps’ Tank Dominant Combat Overmatch in an Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-12

Company, 1999), 6. 2 2011 Tank Conference Report. (Dated 02 Feb 2011) 3 Kenneth E. Estes. Marines Under Armor : The Marine Corps and the Armored...Kenneth W. Marines Under Armor : The Marine Corps and the Armored Fighting Vehicle, 1916-2000. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2000. Ford

Creativity in Business/Business in Creativity: Transdisciplinary Curricula as an Enabling Strategy in Enterprise Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penaluna, Andrew; Penaluna, Kathryn

2009-01-01

Recent guidance for UK government policy makers has warned that HEIs face an uncertain future and has advocated transdisciplinary curricula. Earlier, in 2005, two other UK government papers highlighted the advantages of integrating design-related strategies into business environments and addressed the impact creativity could have on business…

Responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2016-01-01

Forest fuel moisture is an important factor for wildland fire behavior. Predicting future wildfire trends and controlled burned conditions is essential to effective natural resource management, but the associated effects of forest fuel moisture remain uncertain. This study investigates the responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change in the...

Barriers to applying advanced high-temperature materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premkumar, M. K.

1993-01-01

During the past 25 years, aerospace engineers and material scientists have made significant technical progress toward developing next-generation aircraft. However, while advanced high-temperature materials continue to be developed, the outlook for their future application is uncertain and will depend on the ability of these materials to satisfy a more diverse market.

Student Expression: The Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bathon, Justin M.; McCarthy, Martha M.

2008-01-01

On June 25, 2007, the United States Supreme Court rendered its decision in "Morse v. Frederick", a long-awaited ruling regarding student speech in public schools. For nearly twenty years, the Supreme Court had been silent on the issue while lower courts attempted to apply the rules announced in previous Supreme Court decisions. It is…

Preserving and Strengthening Together: Collective Strategies of U.S.Women's College Presidents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Auden D.

2008-01-01

Women's colleges in the 1970s and 1980s faced highly uncertain futures. Soaring popularity of coeducation left them with serious enrollment downturns, and challenges from proposed equal rights legislation threatened to render illegal their single-sex admissions policies. These perilous external conditions drew together the presidents of U.S.…

Cognitive Reserve and Brain Maintenance: Orthogonal Concepts in Theory and Practice.

PubMed

Habeck, C; Razlighi, Q; Gazes, Y; Barulli, D; Steffener, J; Stern, Y

2017-08-01

Cognitive Reserve and Brain Maintenance have traditionally been understood as complementary concepts: Brain Maintenance captures the processes underlying the structural preservation of the brain with age, and might be assessed relative to age-matched peers. Cognitive Reserve, on the other hand, refers to how cognitive processing can be performed regardless of how well brain structure has been maintained. Thus, Brain Maintenance concerns the "hardware," whereas Cognitive Reserve concerns "software," that is, brain functioning explained by factors beyond mere brain structure. We used structural brain data from 368 community-dwelling adults, age 20-80, to derive measures of Brain Maintenance and Cognitive Reserve. We found that Brain Maintenance and Cognitive were uncorrelated such that values on one measure did not imply anything about the other measure. Further, both measures were positively correlated with verbal intelligence and education, hinting at formative influences of the latter to both measures. We performed extensive split-half simulations to check our derived measures' statistical robustness. Our approach enables the out-of-sample quantification of Brain Maintenance and Cognitive Reserve for single subjects on the basis of chronological age, neuropsychological performance and structural brain measures. Future work will investigate the prognostic power of these measures with regard to future cognitive status. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Environmental assessment of pavement infrastructure: A systematic review.

PubMed

Inyim, Peeraya; Pereyra, Jose; Bienvenu, Michael; Mostafavi, Ali

2016-07-01

Through a critical review and systematic analysis of pavement life cycle assessment (LCA) studies published over the past two decades, this study shows that the available information regarding the environmental impacts of pavement infrastructure is not sufficient to determine what pavement type is more environmentally sustainable. Limitations and uncertainties related to data, system boundary and functional unit definitions, consideration of use and maintenance phase impacts, are identified as the main reasons for inconsistency of reported results in pavement LCA studies. The study outcomes also highlight the need for advancement of knowledge pertaining to: (1) utilization of performance-adjusted functional units, (2) accurate estimation of use, maintenance, and end-of-life impacts, (3) incorporation of the dynamic and uncertain nature of pavement condition performance in impact assessment; (4) development of region-specific inventory data for impact estimation; and (5) consideration of a standard set of impact categories for comparison of environmental performance of different pavement types. Advancing the knowledge in these areas is critical in providing consistent and reliable results to inform decision-making toward more sustainable roadway infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maintenance of Certification and the Challenge of Professionalism.

PubMed

Nichols, David G

2017-05-01

Board certification has been part of the social contract in which physicians commit to maintaining up-to-date scientific knowledge and improving the quality of patient care. However, the maintenance of certification program has been controversial. This review summarizes the philosophical underpinnings, published literature, recent improvements, and future directions of the American Board of Pediatrics maintenance of certification program. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sallee, G. P.

1974-01-01

The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

Rituximab maintenance for relapsed refractory thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

PubMed

Bhagirath, Vinai C; Kelton, John G; Moore, Jane; Arnold, Donald M

2012-12-01

Rituximab, an anti-CD20 chimeric monoclonal antibody, has been used successfully to treat patients with relapsed or refractory thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP); however, the optimal dose and frequency and the role of rituximab maintenance remain uncertain. We describe a 45-year-old woman with chronic relapsing immune thrombocytopenia who responded to rituximab retreatment administered in four doses over the course of 12 months. Previously, she had received four doses of rituximab and sustained a remission for 19 months. During her latest TTP relapse, multiple treatments were administered including rituximab retreatment. After the first dose (375 mg/m2), she developed serum sickness requiring further doses to be deferred. Three subsequent doses were administered at 4-month intervals over the course of 12 months. ADAMTS13 activity was measured by von Willebrand factor (VWF) digestion. ADAMTS13 inhibition was measured by a modification of the VWF digestion assay and anti-ADAMTS13 antibodies were measured by enzyme-linked immunoassay (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, American Diagnostica). Clinical and laboratory remission were achieved after one dose of rituximab, with normalization of ADAMTS13 activity and disappearance of ADAMTS13 inhibitor. Three subsequent doses of rituximab were given without incident and the patient remained in remission after 3.5 years of follow-up (2.5 years since her last dose of rituximab). Maintenance dosing of rituximab should be considered in some patients with relapsing TTP. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

The benefits of future-proof tunable white lighting in the classroom

DOE PAGES

Clark, Terry

2016-11-21

The biggest challenge affecting lighting decisions today is future-proofing. Choices made today will likely be choices that impact the next 20 or perhaps even 40 years. For example, we can expect the best LED lighting available today to maintain 90% of initial light output for 100,000 hours or more. Compare this to a fluorescent lighting system that needs regular maintenance after only 30,000 hours due to lamp burn-outs. The simple act of choosing a LED system over a fluorescent one alone can begin to reduce life cycle costs by saving future maintenance costs. However, the choice of LED over fluorescentmore » is just the beginning. Here, let’s look at other future-proofing decisions that should be considered when choosing your next lighting system.« less

Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Maria K. Janowiak; Stephen D. Handler; Patricia Butler-Leopold; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Todd A. Ontl; P. Danielle Shannon

2018-01-01

Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer...

For Illegal College Students, an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horwedel, Dina M.

2006-01-01

With almost two million undocumented children in school and an estimated 65,000 graduating from high school every year, higher education is becoming the new frontier in the immigration debate. In 1982, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the children of illegal immigrants have a right to a free K-12 education. However, the court never extended that…

Achieving the Dream, Uncertain Futures: The Postbaccalaureate Decision-Making Process of Latinx Undocumented Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lara, Argelia; Nava, Pedro E.

2018-01-01

This qualitative study examined the decision-making process of undocumented college students pursuing graduate degrees, and how their commitment to matriculate in higher education programs is shaped by a myriad of social, familial, financial, and institutional factors. This study drew on 2 years of ethnographic data from a sample of 20…

A Prestudy Curricula-as-Research Model for Scholarship of Engagement: Combining Continuous Service with Discontinuous Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steiner, Sherrie

2017-01-01

Restructuring changes in higher education may be affecting how faculty conduct the scholarship of engagement. As faculty increasingly face uncertain futures, the limits of service-learning need to be better understood in order to maximize the pedagogical possibilities. One way of exploring limitations is to focus on sustainable faculty-community…

Issues in Financing School-Based Health Centers: A Guide for State Officials.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

George Washington Univ., Washington, DC.

Despite the recent, unprecedented growth of school-based health centers and the related increased support from state government, the future of school-based health centers is uncertain. Since they can no longer rely on federal support, private insurance, or other commercial sources, each state must develop its own approach to supporting the…

Silvicultural decisionmaking in an uncertain climate future: a workshop-based exploration of considerations, strategies, and approaches

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Christopher W. Swanston; Linda M. Nagel; Christopher R. Webster; Brian J. Palik; Mark J. Twery; John B. Bradford; Linda R. Parker; Andrea T. Hille; Sheela M. Johnson

2011-01-01

Land managers across the country face the immense challenge of developing and applying appropriate management strategies as forests respond to climate change. We hosted a workshop to explore silvicultural strategies for addressing the uncertainties surrounding climate change and forest response in the northeastern and north-central United States. Outcomes of this...

Analysis of the timber situation in Florida, 1995- 2025

Treesearch

Roger C. Conner; Raymond M. Sheffield

2005-01-01

The demand for wood fiber nationwide is expected to increase in the foreseeable future. Harvesting restrictions on forest lands in the West have increased pressure on the South's forest resources to provide more wood. The ability of Florida and other Southern States to respond is uncertain. The authors describe the current extent, condition, and availability of...

Unfinished Business: The Uneven Past and Uncertain Future of One Historically Black University's Archives--A Personal Reflection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pevar, Susan Gunn

2011-01-01

This article presents a perspective on how the restructuring of a historically black university's library and resulting closure of its special collections and archives puts important records pertaining to African American history in jeopardy. This article traces the recent history of special collections and archives at the Lincoln University…

The Uncertain Future of Comprehensive Schooling in England

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gorard, Stephen

2015-01-01

This is an article about secondary schools in England, and what type of school is fair and efficient for a national education system. It discusses what "fair" could mean in this context, summarises some key policy revisions since 1944 in this light, and reminds readers of the damage caused by unfairness within education. Most notably it…

Beyond Counseling and Psychotherapy, There Is a Field. I'll Meet You There

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Timm-Bottos, Janis

2016-01-01

Beyond a counseling or psychotherapy practice, the future of art therapy demands a new type of creativity, solidarity, and social inclusion. This viewpoint explores the art therapy profession and the role of educational practices to envision change in uncertain times. Art therapists have the ability to offer expertise in the serious dilemmas…

Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests

Treesearch

Matthew J. Duveneck; Jonathan R. Thompson; Eric J. Gustafson; Yu Liang; Arjan M. G. de Bruijn

2017-01-01

Context. Forests throughout eastern North America continue to recover from broad-scale intensive land use that peaked in the nineteenth century. These forests provide essential goods and services at local to global scales. It is uncertain how recovery dynamics, the processes by which forests respond to past forest land use, will continue to...

Forests in the balance: linking tradition and technology in landscape mosaics

Treesearch

Margaret S. Devall; Geoffrey C. Smith

2007-01-01

The future of forests around the world is uncertain: forests are being cleared and the lands converted to other uses, while existing forests face many challenges from a variety of sources. The pressures on forests come from two usually opposing perspectives, timber production and wildlife conservation. This special issue volume attempts to bridge between these two...

Designing Species Translocation Strategies When Populaton Growth and Future Funding Are Uncertain

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; Katherine Ralls; Anthony M. Starfield

2000-01-01

When translocating individuals to found new populations, managers must allocate limited funds among release and monitoring activities that differ in method, cost, and probable result. In addition, managers are increasingly expected to justify the funding decisions they have made. Within the framework of decision analysis, we used robust optimization to formulate and...

Canadian Post-Secondary Education: A Positive Record--An Uncertain Future. Report on Learning in Canada 2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canadian Council on Learning, 2006

2006-01-01

This report aims to inform Canadians on the extent to which Canada's post-secondary education sector is contributing to Canadians' social and economic objectives, its ability to respond to a fast-changing global environment, and how Canada's approach to higher education compares with other leading developed countries. Analysis of currently…

Risk Management of the English Universities after the 2008 Financial Crisis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yokoyama, Keiko

2018-01-01

The objective of the paper is to identify whether the global financial crisis in 2008 re-shaped risk management in the English universities in order to avoid future financial turbulence and manage risk in uncertain and insecure environments. The paper examined changes in the risk management mechanism of the English university system between 2008…

Mississippi Blacks and the Voting Rights Act of 1965

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joubert, Paul E.; Crouch, Ben M.

1977-01-01

Analyzes the impact of the Voting Rights Act on black voter registration in Mississippi. Concludes that the future of black politics is highly uncertain in Mississippi. If the movement on the part of whites to disenfranchise blacks succeeds, and intimidation at the polls continues, advances made in the early 1970s could be seriously undermined.…

Seeing the future impacts of climate change and forest management: a landscape visualization system for forest managers

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Melissa Lucash; Johannes Liem; Helen Jenny; Rob Scheller; Kelly Barrett; Brian R. Sturtevant

2016-01-01

Forest managers are increasingly considering how climate change may alter forests' capacity to provide ecosystem goods and services. But identifying potential climate change effects on forests is difficult because interactions among forest growth and mortality, climate change, management, and disturbances are complex and uncertain. Although forest landscape models...

Antioch College: A Celebrated History and an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayford, Elizabeth R.

2011-01-01

On June 7, 2007, the Antioch University board of trustees declared that Antioch College, an independent liberal arts college in Yellow Springs, Ohio, was in a state of financial exigency, and, two days later, voted to suspend college operations after the next academic year. After that year, the board oversaw the closing of the college while…

Post-Secondary Education in Canada: Strategies for Success. Report on Learning in Canada 2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canadian Council on Learning, 2007

2007-01-01

In 2006, the Canadian Council on Learning produced the first national overview of post-secondary education in Canada. The report, "Canadian Post-secondary Education: A Positive Record--An Uncertain Future," identified eight goals and objectives derived from the strategic plans for post-secondary education (PSE) that had been developed by…

Blocked Paths, Uncertain Futures: The Postsecondary Education and Labor Market Prospects of Undocumented Latino Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abrego, Leisy J.; Gonzales, Roberto G.

2010-01-01

Over the past few decades, undocumented settlement in the United States has grown to unprecedented numbers. Among the nearly 12 million undocumented immigrants, a substantial portion of undocumented youth is growing up with legal access to public education through high school but facing legal restrictions and economic barriers to higher education…

Educational Inequality in Nuevo Leon and Oaxaca, Mexico, 2008 and 2010: The Basis of an Uncertain Future for These Societies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierdant R., Alberto I.; Rodríguez Franco, Jesús; Narro R., Ana Elena

2017-01-01

Education in society especially in Mexico, seems to be a powerful instrument of intergenerational social mobility to produce individuals with "capabilities and functions" allowing them to obtain a greater well-being. "Education as schooling," in the first instance, improves the individuals living conditions, since this is a…

Software Intensive Systems Data Quality and Estimation Research in Support of Future Defense Cost Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-13

Legacy Maintenance and Brownfield Development 6.6.6 Agile and Kanban Development 6.6.7 Putting It All Together at the Large-Project or Enterprise Level...NDI)-intensive systems Ultrahigh software system assurance; Legacy maintenance and brownfield development; and Agile and kanban development. This...be furnished by NDI components or may need to be developed for special systems. Legacy Maintenance and Brownfield Development Fewer and fewer software

The Impact of Oral Hygiene Maintenance on the Association Between Periodontitis and Osteoporosis

PubMed Central

Huang, Yi-Fang; Chang, Chung-Ta; Liu, Shih-Ping; Muo, Chih-Hsin; Tsai, Chun-Hao; Hong, Hsiang-Hsi; Shen, Yu-Fu; Wu, Ching-Zong

2016-01-01

Abstract Both periodontitis and osteoporosis have similar sign of bone resorption in nature. However, the relationship of the severity between these 2 bone-loss diseases is still uncertain. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the severity of osteoporosis and periodontitis regarding the impact of oral hygiene maintenance. In total, 35,127 osteoporosis patients and 50,498 comparisons were derived from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database of Taiwan between 2000 and 2010. The population was subdivided into groups according to the different level oral hygiene maintenance and the severity of periodontitis and osteoporosis. The association between osteoporosis and periodontitis was estimated by multinomial logistic regression and rank correlation by Kendall rank correlation test, presented by odds ratio (OR), and 5% confidence intervals (CIs). After controlling the age, sex, and comorbidities, variables in the good oral hygiene maintenance population, we found that periodontitis raised 1.29-fold risk of osteoporosis (95% CI = 1.12–1.49); the risk of osteoporosis was increased with the elevated severity of periodontitis from 1.27 (95% CI = 1.08–1.48) to 1.38 (95% CI = 1.01–1.89). There is a positive correlation between the severity of periodontitis and osteoporosis occurrence in this population (OR = 1.27–1.46; Kendall rank correlation test P = 0.0003). In the poor oral hygiene maintenance population, periodontitis patients had 6.02-fold risk of osteoporosis than those who without periodontitis (95% CI = 4.65–7.81); the risk of osteoporosis was increased with periodontitis severity from 5.96 (95% CI = 4.48–7.92) to 6.37 (95% CI = 3.36–12.1). This result indicated the periodontitis and osteoporosis are conjunctive. The sudden periodontal breakdown of those who with good oral hygiene maintenance might be an indicator for the risk of osteoporosis; if those who were diagnosed as osteoporosis must pay more attention to their periodontal health. Good oral hygiene maintenance might be a crucial factor for preventing the deterioration of osteoporosis progressing; the oral hygiene maintenance plays a significant influence on the association between periodontitis and osteoporosis. PMID:26871767

Future changes driving dietetics workforce supply and demand: future scan 2012-2022.

PubMed

Rhea, Marsha; Bettles, Craig

2012-03-01

The dietetics profession faces many workforce challenges and opportunities to ensure that registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) are at the forefront of health and nutrition. The profession must prepare for new public priorities, changes in population, and the restructuring of how people learn and work, as well as new advances in science and technology. In September 2010, the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force, in consultation with a panel of thought leaders, identified 10 change drivers that affect dietetics workforce supply and demand. This future scan report provides an overview of eight of these drivers. Two change drivers-health care reform and population risk factors/nutrition initiatives-are addressed in separate technical articles. A change matrix has been included at the end of this executive summary. The matrix contains a summary of each change driver and its expected impact and is designed to present the drivers in the context of a larger, dynamic system of change in the dietetics profession. The impact of any of these change drivers individually and collectively in a dynamic system is uncertain. The outcome of any change driver is also uncertain. The dietetics profession faces many choices within each change driver to meet the workforce challenges and seize the opportunities for leadership and growth. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seeing through the Smoke: A collaborative, multidisciplinary effort to address the interplay between wildfire, climate, air quality, and health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, S. J.; Fischer, E. V.; Pierce, J. R.; Ford, B.; Lassman, W.; Pfister, G.; Volckens, J.; Gan, R.; Magzamen, S.; Barnes, E. A.

2015-12-01

Exposure to wildfire smoke plumes represents an episodic, uncertain, and potentially growing threat to public health in the western United States. The area burned by wildfires in this region has increased over recent decades, and the future of fires within this region is largely unknown. Future fire emissions are intimately linked to future meteorological conditions, which are uncertain due to the variability of climate model outputs and differences between representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. We know that exposure to wildfire smoke is harmful, particularly for vulnerable populations. However the literature on the heath effects of wildfire smoke exposure is thin, particularly when compared to the depth of information we have on the effects of exposure to smoke of anthropogenic origin. We are exploring the relationships between climate, fires, air quality and public health through multiple interdisciplinary collaborations. We will present several examples from these projects including 1) an analysis of the influence of fire on ozone abundances over the United States, and 2) efforts to use a high-resolution weather forecasting model to nail down exposure within specific smoke plumes. We will also highlight how our team works together. This discussion will include examples of the university structure that facilitates our current collaborations, and the lessons we have learned by seeking stakeholder input to make our science more useful.

Protecting our Khmer daughters: ghosts of the past, uncertain futures, and the human papillomavirus vaccine.

PubMed

Burke, Nancy J; Do, Huyen H; Talbot, Jocelyn; Sos, Channdara; Ros, Srey; Taylor, Victoria M

2015-01-01

The FDA approved the first human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in 2006. Research into parental decision-making and concerns about HPV vaccination highlights questions about parenting and parents' role in the crafting of their daughters' future sexuality. In contrast to much of this literature, we explore narratives from interviews with Cambodian mothers of HPV vaccine-age eligible daughters who experienced genocide and came to the USA as refugees. We conducted in-depth, in-person interviews with 25 Cambodian mothers of HPV vaccine-age eligible daughters. Interviews were conducted in Khmer and translated into English for analysis. We followed standard qualitative analysis techniques including iterative data review, multiple coders, and 'member checking.' Five members of the research team reviewed all transcripts and two members independently coded each transcript for concepts and themes. Interview narratives highlight the presence of the past alongside desires for protection from uncertain futures. We turn to Quesada and colleagues' concept structural vulnerability to outline the constraints posed by these women's positionalities as genocide survivors when faced with making decisions in an area with which they have little direct knowledge or background: cervical cancer prevention. Our study sheds light on the prioritization of various protective health practices, including but not exclusive to HPV vaccination, for Khmer mothers, as well as the rationalities informing decision-making regarding their daughters' health.

Protecting our Khmer daughters: Ghosts of the past, uncertain futures, and the HPV vaccine

PubMed Central

Burke, Nancy J.; Do, Huyen H.; Talbot, Jocelyn; Sos, Channdara; Ros, Srey; Taylor, Victoria M.

2014-01-01

Objectives The FDA approved the first HPV vaccine in 2006. Research into parental decision-making and concerns about HPV vaccination highlight questions about parenting and parents’ role in the crafting of their daughters’ future sexuality. In contrast to much of this literature, we explore narratives from interviews with Cambodian mothers of HPV vaccine age-eligible daughters who experienced genocide and came to the United States as refugees. Design We conducted in-depth, in-person interviews with 25 Cambodian mothers of HPV vaccine-age eligible daughters. Interviews were conducted in Khmer and translated into English for analysis. We followed standard qualitative analysis techniques including iterative data review, multiple coders, and ‘member checking’. Five members of the research team reviewed all transcripts and two members independently coded each transcript for concepts and themes. Results Interview narratives highlight the presence of the past alongside desires for protection from uncertain futures. We turn to Quesada and colleagues’ (2011) concept structural vulnerability to outline the constraints posed by these women’s positionalities as genocide survivors when faced with making decisions in a area with which they have little direct knowledge or background: cervical cancer prevention. Conclusion Our study sheds light on the prioritization of various protective health practices, including but not exclusive to HPV vaccination, for Khmer mothers, as well as the rationalities informing decision-making regarding their daughters’ health. PMID:24905057

Task Adaptable Display of Information for Training, Maintenance, and Emergency Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

maintenance and repair display in the future. 22 8. References [1] Astle, D. and Durnil, D. OpenGL ES Game Development . Course...Dave Durnil. OpenGL ES Game Development . Course Technology PTR, 2004. [2] J. Buchanan and M. Sousa. The edge buffer: A data structure for easy

Depot Maintenance: Improved Strategic Planning Needed to Ensure That Army and Marine Corps Depots Can Meet Future Maintenance Requirements

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

System, and Sidewinder, as well as mobile electric power generation equipment Red River Texarkana , Texas Bradley Fighting Vehicle, tactical wheeled...Depot, Corpus Christi, Texas; Letterkenny Army Depot, Chambersburg, Pennsylvania; Red River Army Depot, Texarkana , Texas; and Tobyhanna Army Depot

An exploration of Intolerance of Uncertainty and memory bias.

PubMed

Francis, Kylie; Dugas, Michel J; Ricard, Nathalie C

2016-09-01

Research suggests that individuals high in Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) have information processing biases, which may explain the close relationship between IU and worry. Specifically, high IU individuals show an attentional bias for uncertainty, and negatively interpret uncertain information. However, evidence of a memory bias for uncertainty among high IU individuals is limited. This study therefore explored the relationship between IU and memory for uncertainty. In two separate studies, explicit and implicit memory for uncertain compared to other types of words was assessed. Cognitive avoidance and other factors that could influence information processing were also examined. IUS Factor 1 was a significant positive predictor of explicit memory for positive words, and IUS Factor 2 a significant negative predictor of implicit memory for positive words. Stimulus relevance and vocabulary were significant predictors of implicit memory for uncertain words. Cognitive avoidance was a significant predictor of both explicit and implicit memory for threat words. Female gender was a significant predictor of implicit memory for uncertain and neutral words. Word stimuli such as those used in these studies may not be the optimal way of assessing information processing biases related to IU. In addition, the predominantly female, largely student sample may limit the generalizability of the findings. Future research focusing on IU factors, stimulus relevance, and both explicit and implicit memory, was recommended. The potential role of cognitive avoidance on memory, information processing, and worry was explored. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

ACCF/ACR/AIUM/ASE/ASN/ICAVL/SCAI/SCCT/SIR/SVM/SVS 2012 Appropriate Use Criteria for Peripheral Vascular Ultrasound and Physiological Testing Part I: Arterial Ultrasound and Physiological Testing

PubMed Central

Mohler, Emile R.; Gornik, Heather L.; Gerhard-Herman, Marie; Misra, Sanjay; Olin, Jeffrey W.; Zierler, R. Eugene; Wolk, Michael J.; Mohler, Emile R.; Dixon, Bradley S.; Driver, Vickie R.; Fail, Peter S.; Fazel, Reza; Findeiss, Laura; Fuchs, Richard; Gillespie, John; Hughes, Joseph P.; Jaigobin, Cheryl; Leers, Steven A.; Moore, Colleen; Pellerito, John S.; Robbin, Michelle L.; Shugart, Rita E.; Weaver, Fred A.; White, Christopher J.; Yevzlin, Alexander S.; Wolk, Michael J.; Bailey, Steven R.; Douglas, Pamela S.; Hendel, Robert C.; Kramer, Christopher M.; Min, James K.; Patel, Manesh R.; Shaw, Leslee; Stainback, Raymond F.; Allen, Joseph M.

2015-01-01

The American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF), in partnership with key specialty and subspecialty societies, conducted a review of common clinical scenarios where noninvasive vascular testing (ultrasound and physiological testing) is frequently considered. The indications (clinical scenarios) were derived from common applications or anticipated uses, as well as from current clinical practice guidelines and results of studies examining the implementation of the original appropriate use criteria (AUC). The 159 indications in this document were developed by a diverse writing group and scored by a separate independent technical panel on a scale of 1 to 9, to designate appropriate use (median 7 to 9), uncertain use (median 4 to 6), and inappropriate use (median 1 to 3). A total of 255 indications (with the inclusion of surveillance timeframes) were rated. One hundred and seventeen indications were rated as appropriate, 84 were rated as uncertain, and 54 were rated as inappropriate. The AUC for peripheral vascular disease have the potential to impact physician decision making, healthcare delivery, and reimbursement policy. Furthermore, recognition of uncertain clinical scenarios facilitates identification of areas that would benefit from future research. PMID:22694840

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, Terry

The biggest challenge affecting lighting decisions today is future-proofing. Choices made today will likely be choices that impact the next 20 or perhaps even 40 years. For example, we can expect the best LED lighting available today to maintain 90% of initial light output for 100,000 hours or more. Compare this to a fluorescent lighting system that needs regular maintenance after only 30,000 hours due to lamp burn-outs. The simple act of choosing a LED system over a fluorescent one alone can begin to reduce life cycle costs by saving future maintenance costs. However, the choice of LED over fluorescentmore » is just the beginning. Here, let’s look at other future-proofing decisions that should be considered when choosing your next lighting system.« less

Japan-U.S. Joint Ventures in Higher Education: Language Education in an Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clayton, Thomas

1991-01-01

Examines Japanese-U.S. joint venture language or U.S.-style education programs in Japan. These programs offer language and cultural education classes for those interested in English and for students who have failed in the Japanese education system. Problems facing these programs and the need to explore new, English-language education markets are…

The IT Advantage Assessment Model: Applying an Expanded Value Chain Model to Academia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Walter L.; Stylianou, Antonis C.

2004-01-01

Academia faces an uncertain future as the 21st century unfolds. New demands, discerning students, increased competition from non-traditional competitors are just a few of the forces demanding a response. The use of information technology (IT) in academia has not kept pace with its use in industry. What has been lacking is a model for the strategic…

Underwater Sensor System 2009 Field Trial Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

abrasion by the ice was shown to be useable, but the lower end was found to have been covered by gravel that must be cleared away. Significance: The...be threaded through the pipe in preparation for future operations. iv DRDC Atlantic TM 2010-241 Sommaire Underwater Sensor System 2009...is uncertain if the cause was abrasion or nibbling by sea life. ......................................................................... 9 Figure 7

12th Annual Science and Engineering Technology Conference/DoD TECH Exposition

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-23

compound when planning horizons grow: long design - test - build-field-adapt lead-times exacerbate uncertain futures problems, overload designs , and...ERS Environment ERS: Tools and Technologies to Facilitate Adaptability & Trustability 4. Tying design , physical and computational testing 6...science, engineering concepts, processes, and design tools to: • Continuously coordinate design , testing , and production with warfighter review to

The Inconsistent Past and Uncertain Future of Human Rights Education in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sirota, Sandra

2017-01-01

This article examines how the U.S. government's stance on human rights and human rights education has shifted from leading the creation of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights through the United Nations Human Rights Commission, with Eleanor Roosevelt as chair of the Commission, to one in which human rights education has only a minimal…

Non-industrial private forests: timber supply for an uncertain future.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig

1990-01-01

According to U.S. Forest Service estimates (in press), annual timber harvest volume in the United States will have to increase from the 18 billion cubic feet of 1986 to 27 billion cubic feet by 2040 to satisfy increasing demand (Figure 1). It's doubtful that public forest lands can provide much of this additional timber, primarily because of increasing calls for...

Progressive Education in New Zealand: A Revered Past, a Contested Present and an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mutch, Carol

2013-01-01

In this article, progressive education in New Zealand is examined across three eras. The "revered past" (1870s-1960s) focuses the influence of progressive ideas on the early childhood movement from the establishment of the first kindergarten in 1889 and on the schooling sector from the 1930s to the 1960s. The "contested…

Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Stephan Kroll

2017-01-01

For environmental problems such as climate change, uncertainty about future conditions makes it difficult to know what the goal of mitigation efforts should be, and inequality among the affected parties makes it hard for them to know how much they each should do toward reaching the goal. We examine the effects of scientific uncertainty and wealth inequality in...

Assessing net ecosystem carbon exchange of U.S. terrestrial ecosystems by integrating eddy covariance flux measurements and satellite observations

Treesearch

Jingfeng Xiaoa; Qianlai Zhuang; Beverly E. Law; Dennis D. Baldocchi; Jiquan Chen; al. et.

2011-01-01

More accurate projections of future carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and associated climate change depend on improved scientific understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Despite the consensus that U.S. terrestrial ecosystems provide a carbon sink, the size, distribution, and interannual variability of this sink remain uncertain. Here we report a...

Thoughts and Speculations on the Possible Decline of Higher Education in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corso, Emanuele

The future of higher education is more uncertain now than it has ever been and it is interesting to examine and speculate as to causes and possible results. Values and sanctions that have previously motivated unquestioned acceptance of the legitimacy of higher education are, like many other values and sanctions in our society, presently undergoing…

Addressing the Uncertain Future of Preserving the Past: Towards a Robust Strategy for Digital Archiving and Preservation. Technical Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoorens, Stijn; Rothenberg, Jeff; van Orange, Constantijn; van der Mandele, Martijn; Levitt, Ruth

2007-01-01

Storing and curating authentic academic literature and making it accessible for the long term has been a time-honoured task of national libraries. By guarding existing knowledge and facilitating its use to produce new insights, national and university libraries have formed an integral part of the research environment, complementing the roles of…

Toward a formal definition of water scarcity in natural human systems

Treesearch

W.K. Jaeger; A.J. Plantinga; H. Chang; K. Dello; G. Grant; D. Hulse; J.J. McDonnell; S. Lancaster; H. Moradkhani; A.T. Morzillo; P. Mote; A. Nolin; M. Santlemann; J. Wu

2013-01-01

Water scarcity may appear to be a simple concept, but it can be difficult to apply to complex natural-human systems. While aggregate scarcity indices are straightforward to compute, they do not adequately represent the spatial and temporal variations in water scarcity that arise from complex systems interactions. The uncertain effects of future climate change on water...

Hypersonic Flight: Time To Go Operational

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-14

and turbojet /turbofan driven aircraft both individually and combined with the latter taking over fighter propulsion in 1945-1948 and quickly...2000 2020 Early Turbojet / Turbofan Piston Aircraft Late Turbojet / Turbofan Year Deployed M ile s pe r H ou 6 ensure the...threaten aircraft , airbases, and naval assets, especially aircraft carrier battle groups. The future is uncertain and the preceding vision of the

Regional forest landscape restoration priorities: Integrating historical conditions and an uncertain future in the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Barry L. Bollenbacher; Russell T. Graham; Keith M. Reynolds

2014-01-01

National law and policy direct the management of the National Forests, with restoring resilient forest conditions being an overarching theme. Climate is a major driver of disturbances that affect ecosystems, especially those with vegetation that show large departures from historical conditions. Drought, fire, insects, and diseases are common forest stressors whose...

The use of mitomycin C in pediatric airway surgery: does it work?

PubMed

Gangar, Mona; Bent, John P

2014-12-01

To describe the efficacy of mitomycin C in combating airway stenosis. Recent publications discussing mitomycin C utility have not altered the mixed results previously established by prospective trials. Mitomycin C has been used for the past 16 years to inhibit pediatric airway fibroblast proliferation. Its benefit remains more hypothetical than proven and its future role remains uncertain.

Families in Troubled Times: Adapting to Change in Rural America. Social Institutions and Social Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conger, Rand D.; Elder, Glen H., Jr.

In Iowa in the 1980s, dreams of prosperity were suddenly replaced by economic nightmares as plummeting land values generated economic decline and dislocation in rural communities and individual lives. This book examines the experience of over 400 Iowa families who lived through the Great Farm Crisis and now face an uncertain future. Interviewed as…

How to Assess the Real Payoff of a College Degree

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlson, Scott

2013-01-01

Just listen to Dimitrius Graham sing. As a music major at Morgan State University, he seems keenly aware of certain realities about his life: His talent is undeniable and probably innate, and his future is promising but uncertain. He could make a career singing on Broadway or climbing the charts as a Billboard phenomenon. Because he went to…

In the Name of Environmental Education: Words and Things in the Complex Territory of Education-Environment-Development Relations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gomez, Jose Antonio Caride

2005-01-01

The proclamation of the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development by the United Nations has placed education in general, and environmental education in particular, at the front of a future full of important and uncertain meanings. On the one hand, those inviting a conceptual, theoretical and praxiological revision of the…

Predicting the response of seven Asian glaciers to future climate scenarios using a simple linear glacier model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Karoly, David J.

2008-03-01

Observations from seven Central Asian glaciers (35-55°N; 70-95°E) are used, together with regional temperature data, to infer uncertain parameters for a simple linear model of the glacier length variations. The glacier model is based on first order glacier dynamics and requires the knowledge of reference states of forcing and glacier perturbation magnitude. An adjoint-based variational method is used to optimally determine the glacier reference states in 1900 and the uncertain glacier model parameters. The simple glacier model is then used to estimate the glacier length variations until 2060 using regional temperature projections from an ensemble of climate model simulations for a future climate change scenario (SRES A2). For the period 2000-2060, all glaciers are projected to experience substantial further shrinkage, especially those with gentle slopes (e.g., Glacier Chogo Lungma retreats ˜4 km). Although nearly one-third of the year 2000 length will be reduced for some small glaciers, the existence of the glaciers studied here is not threatened by year 2060. The differences between the individual glacier responses are large. No straightforward relationship is found between glacier size and the projected fractional change of its length.

25 CFR 137.4 - Future charges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... CARLOS INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT, ARIZONA § 137.4 Future charges. The payment of said construction cost and costs of future operation and maintenance of said project as provided for in said section 3 of the... contract by and between the San Carlos irrigation and drainage district and the Secretary of the Interior...

25 CFR 137.4 - Future charges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... CARLOS INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT, ARIZONA § 137.4 Future charges. The payment of said construction cost and costs of future operation and maintenance of said project as provided for in said section 3 of the... contract by and between the San Carlos irrigation and drainage district and the Secretary of the Interior...

25 CFR 137.4 - Future charges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... CARLOS INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT, ARIZONA § 137.4 Future charges. The payment of said construction cost and costs of future operation and maintenance of said project as provided for in said section 3 of the... contract by and between the San Carlos irrigation and drainage district and the Secretary of the Interior...

25 CFR 137.4 - Future charges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... CARLOS INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT, ARIZONA § 137.4 Future charges. The payment of said construction cost and costs of future operation and maintenance of said project as provided for in said section 3 of the... contract by and between the San Carlos irrigation and drainage district and the Secretary of the Interior...

25 CFR 137.4 - Future charges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... CARLOS INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT, ARIZONA § 137.4 Future charges. The payment of said construction cost and costs of future operation and maintenance of said project as provided for in said section 3 of the... contract by and between the San Carlos irrigation and drainage district and the Secretary of the Interior...

Strategic Defense Initiative Organization adaptive structures program overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obal, Michael; Sater, Janet M.

In the currently envisioned architecture none of the Strategic Defense System (SDS) elements to be deployed will receive scheduled maintenance. Assessments of performance capability due to changes caused by the uncertain effects of environments will be difficult, at best. In addition, the system will have limited ability to adjust in order to maintain its required performance levels. The Materials and Structures Office of the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) has begun to address solutions to these potential difficulties via an adaptive structures technology program that combines health and environment monitoring with static and dynamic structural control. Conceivable system benefits include improved target tracking and hit-to-kill performance, on-orbit system health monitoring and reporting, and threat attack warning and assessment.

Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2017-04-01

Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

PubMed

Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae C; Perry, Allison L

2013-01-01

Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.

Remote Education Using Web Conference System in a Company of Coin Parking Business

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshioka, Yoshio; Mito, Hiroyuki; Azuma, Kouji

Maintenance jobs at coin parking places (CP) are very important for keeping trouble free operation. Such maintenance jobs include special inspection at the initiation of new CP and ordinal maintenance works. In order to level up the skill of maintenance people in the company, education of the basic knowlege of electricity, facility and maintenance skills are required. We made an original text for maintenance people, and practiced education by use of web conference system, because they are distributed in whole country, This paper describes a content of text on fundamental knowledge of electricity, facility of coin parking system and trouble experiences, and also a practice of remote education using web conference system. Problems of remote education which were found by practice and the future education plan of practical skill are also described.

Simulators for Maintenance Training: Some Issues, Problems and Areas for Future Research

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-07-01

trainer into a full-scale, three-dimensional simulation of one cabinet of the NIKE HIPAR system. Test points for troubleshooting were located on simulated...described was used to teach maintenance of the NIKE HIPAR system. It too was considered to be a general purpose trainer in that its basic features could be...types of maintenance simulators based on a detailed task analysis of the NIKE HIPAR system as it existed one year before it was scheduled to become

A Method for Scheduling Air Traffic with Uncertain En Route Capacity Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arneson, Heather; Bloem, Michael

2009-01-01

A method for scheduling ground delay and airborne holding for flights scheduled to fly through airspace with uncertain capacity constraints is presented. The method iteratively solves linear programs for departure rates and airborne holding as new probabilistic information about future airspace constraints becomes available. The objective function is the expected value of the weighted sum of ground and airborne delay. In order to limit operationally costly changes to departure rates, they are updated only when such an update would lead to a significant cost reduction. Simulation results show a 13% cost reduction over a rough approximation of current practices. Comparison between the proposed as needed replanning method and a similar method that uses fixed frequency replanning shows a typical cost reduction of 1% to 2%, and even up to a 20% cost reduction in some cases.

Generalized Training Devices for Avionic Systems Maintenance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parker, Edward L.

A research study was conducted to determine the feasibility and desirability of developing generalized training equipment for use in avionic systems maintenance training. The study consisted of a group of survey and analytic tasks to provide useful guidance to serve the needs of the Naval Aviation community in future years. The study had four…

78 FR 67336 - Habitat Conservation Plan for the United Water Conservation District, Santa Clara River Watershed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-12

... incidental take permits for United's construction, operations, and maintenance of water management facilities... maintenance of the Freeman Diversion; diversion of water from the Santa Clara River; vegetation management... current and future water management activities. United intends to request a 50-year permit covering five...

Cultural Coherence and the Schooling for Identity Maintenance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merry, Michael S.

2005-01-01

An education for cultural coherence tends to the child's well-being through identity construction and maintenance. Critics charge that this sort of education will not bode well for the future autonomy of children. I will argue that culturally coherent education, provided there is no coercion, can lend itself to eventual autonomy and may assist…

25 CFR 170.806 - What is an IRR Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management System?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... facility maintenance activities. It will be used to extend the service life of an IRR transportation facility, ensure safety, and report future funding needs to the Secretary. BIA will develop the IRR TFMMS. ... Management System? 170.806 Section 170.806 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND...

25 CFR 170.806 - What is an IRR Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management System?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... facility maintenance activities. It will be used to extend the service life of an IRR transportation facility, ensure safety, and report future funding needs to the Secretary. BIA will develop the IRR TFMMS. ... Management System? 170.806 Section 170.806 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND...

25 CFR 170.806 - What is an IRR Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management System?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... facility maintenance activities. It will be used to extend the service life of an IRR transportation facility, ensure safety, and report future funding needs to the Secretary. BIA will develop the IRR TFMMS. ... Management System? 170.806 Section 170.806 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND...

Breaking the Backlog Reduction Mold with FacMan: A Facilities Management Application for Maintenance Backlogs and Capital Renewal.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Managan, William H.

1999-01-01

Describes a facilities-management software program that helps managers better document and understand maintenance backlogs, improvements, and future cyclic renewal needs. Major software components are examined including a software tool that filters, groups, and ranks projects to help determine funding requests. (GR)

Current status, uncertainty and future needs in soil organic carbon monitoring.

PubMed

Jandl, Robert; Rodeghiero, Mirco; Martinez, Cristina; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Bampa, Francesca; van Wesemael, Bas; Harrison, Robert B; Guerrini, Iraê Amaral; Richter, Daniel Deb; Rustad, Lindsey; Lorenz, Klaus; Chabbi, Abad; Miglietta, Franco

2014-01-15

Increasing human demands on soil-derived ecosystem services requires reliable data on global soil resources for sustainable development. The soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is a key indicator of soil quality as it affects essential biological, chemical and physical soil functions such as nutrient cycling, pesticide and water retention, and soil structure maintenance. However, information on the SOC pool, and its temporal and spatial dynamics is unbalanced. Even in well-studied regions with a pronounced interest in environmental issues information on soil carbon (C) is inconsistent. Several activities for the compilation of global soil C data are under way. However, different approaches for soil sampling and chemical analyses make even regional comparisons highly uncertain. Often, the procedures used so far have not allowed the reliable estimation of the total SOC pool, partly because the available knowledge is focused on not clearly defined upper soil horizons and the contribution of subsoil to SOC stocks has been less considered. Even more difficult is quantifying SOC pool changes over time. SOC consists of variable amounts of labile and recalcitrant molecules of plant, and microbial and animal origin that are often operationally defined. A comprehensively active soil expert community needs to agree on protocols of soil surveying and lab procedures towards reliable SOC pool estimates. Already established long-term ecological research sites, where SOC changes are quantified and the underlying mechanisms are investigated, are potentially the backbones for regional, national, and international SOC monitoring programs. © 2013.

17 CFR 5.6 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by retail foreign exchange dealers and futures...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... engaging in retail forex transactions. 5.6 Section 5.6 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES... forex transactions. (a) Each futures commission merchant offering or engaging in retail forex... engage in retail forex transactions and each person registered as a retail foreign exchange dealer or who...

17 CFR 5.6 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by retail foreign exchange dealers and futures...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... engaging in retail forex transactions. 5.6 Section 5.6 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES... forex transactions. (a) Each futures commission merchant offering or engaging in retail forex... engage in retail forex transactions and each person registered as a retail foreign exchange dealer or who...

17 CFR 5.6 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by retail foreign exchange dealers and futures...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... engaging in retail forex transactions. 5.6 Section 5.6 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES... forex transactions. (a) Each futures commission merchant offering or engaging in retail forex... engage in retail forex transactions and each person registered as a retail foreign exchange dealer or who...

Trusted Defense Microelectronics: Future Access and Capabilities Are Uncertain

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-28

Board Task Force on High Performance Microchip Supply and documentation and discussions with industry and DOD officials in September and October...the defense and microelectronics industry . DOD’s review of this report deemed some of this information as sensitive but unclassified. What GAO...increased specialization and industry consolidation. • Once dominated by domestic sources, the supply chain for microelectronics manufacturing is a global one

Guided by Principles. Shaping the State of California's Role in K-12 Public School Facility Funding. Full Policy Research Working Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vincent, Jeffrey M.; Gross, Liz S.

2015-01-01

K-12 public school facilities need regular investment to ensure student health and safety and support educational programming. Yet, the future of K-12 school facility funding in California is uncertain. A strong state-local partnership has existed that funded new construction, modernization, and other investments in public school facilities across…

Diversifying the composition and structure of managed late-successional forests with harvest gaps: What is the optimal gap size?

Treesearch

Christel C. Kern; Anthony W. D’Amato; Terry F. Strong

2013-01-01

Managing forests for resilience is crucial in the face of uncertain future environmental conditions. Because harvest gap size alters the species diversity and vertical and horizontal structural heterogeneity, there may be an optimum range of gap sizes for conferring resilience to environmental uncertainty. We examined the impacts of different harvest gap sizes on...

Government Support for Synthetic Pipeline Gas Uncertain and Needs Attention.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-14

coal gas. Tear Sheetii RECOMMENDATIONS GAO recommends that the Secretary of Energy - --establish a plan to guide future support of high-Btu coal...recognizes that there are basic dif- ferences expected from large and small scale research projects, GAO believes that the report recognizes these...transportation, including the pipeline system. In its price-setting, or ratemaking function, it represents the interests of gas customers, sometimes

Addressing the Uncertain Future of Preserving the Past: Towards a Robust Strategy for Digital Archiving and Preservation. Technical Report. Executive Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoorens, Stijn; Rothenberg, Jeff; van Oranje-Nassau, Constantijn; van der Mandele, Martin; Levitt, Ruth

2007-01-01

Storing and curating authentic academic literature and making it accessible for the long term has been a time-honoured task of national libraries. By guarding existing knowledge and facilitating its use to produce new insights, national and university libraries have formed an integral part of the research environment, complementing the roles of…

Accomplishments of Long-Term Research and Development

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Jordy, George Y.

1988-07-01

Technological breakthroughs cannot be penciled on the calendar in advance. The rate of new technological discovery, while highly uncertain, depends on a base of knowledge acquired earlier. In the economic environment of 1980, progress in basic research, which builds the technology base that will underpin future energy development by Government and industry, was being slowed as cost increases due to inflation grew faster than funding increase.

A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times

PubMed Central

Fiske, Susan T.

2014-01-01

This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy. PMID:24511155

Acquisition Research for Design and Service Enterprises

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-02

better than refurbishment.  Replacement: Replacing a component means to swap in a new component. Consequently, the efficiency after replacement is...objectives are fueled by anticipation of future gains; and transaction encapsulates the reluctance to change currencies /investments because of the fixed...those for holding currency . It can be argued that the exception is when goods are held in reserve to meet uncertain demands, with the objective of

Connected, Disconnected, or Uncertain: Student Attitudes about Future Writing Contexts and Perceptions of Transfer from First Year Writing to the Disciplines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Driscoll, Dana Lynn

2011-01-01

Transfer, or how much knowledge from one context is used or adapted in new contexts, is a longstanding issue for researchers and teachers of writing in a variety of disciplines. Transfer is of particular concern when examining how effective first-year writing is in preparing students with a foundation for their disciplinary coursework. This…

Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Jonathan D.; Zeff, Harrison B.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W.

2014-10-01

While optimality is a foundational mathematical concept in water resources planning and management, "optimal" solutions may be vulnerable to failure if deeply uncertain future conditions deviate from those assumed during optimization. These vulnerabilities may produce severely asymmetric impacts across a region, making it vital to evaluate the robustness of management strategies as well as their impacts for regional stakeholders. In this study, we contribute a multistakeholder many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework that blends many-objective search and uncertainty analysis tools to discover key tradeoffs between water supply alternatives and their robustness to deep uncertainties (e.g., population pressures, climate change, and financial risks). The proposed framework is demonstrated for four interconnected water utilities representing major stakeholders in the "Research Triangle" region of North Carolina, U.S. The utilities supply well over one million customers and have the ability to collectively manage drought via transfer agreements and shared infrastructure. We show that water portfolios for this region that compose optimal tradeoffs (i.e., Pareto-approximate solutions) under expected future conditions may suffer significantly degraded performance with only modest changes in deeply uncertain hydrologic and economic factors. We then use the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to identify which uncertain factors drive the individual and collective vulnerabilities for the four cooperating utilities. Our framework identifies key stakeholder dependencies and robustness tradeoffs associated with cooperative regional planning, which are critical to understanding the tensions between individual versus regional water supply goals. Cooperative demand management was found to be the key factor controlling the robustness of regional water supply planning, dominating other hydroclimatic and economic uncertainties through the 2025 planning horizon. Results suggest that a modest reduction in the projected rate of demand growth (from approximately 3% per year to 2.4%) will substantially improve the utilities' robustness to future uncertainty and reduce the potential for regional tensions. The proposed multistakeholder MORDM framework offers critical insights into the risks and challenges posed by rising water demands and hydrological uncertainties, providing a planning template for regions now forced to confront rapidly evolving water scarcity risks.

Analysis of Employability for the Civil Aviation Maintenance Graduates of Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denizhan, Berrin; Dogru, Alperen

2017-01-01

Purpose: With every passing day, the center of gravity for air traffic for the Middle East and Turkey is shifting toward becoming a center for airway transport, maintenance, repair, overhaul (MRO) and transfer. The MRO sector is gaining importance because of this increase in Turkey. The purpose of this study is to examine the future employability…

Maintenance and Safety Practices of Escalator in Commercial Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afida Isnaini Janipha, Nurul; Nur Aina Syed Alwee, Sharifah; Ariff, Raihan Mohd; Ismail, Faridah

2018-02-01

The escalator is very crucial to transport a person from one place to another. Nevertheless, there are many cases recorded the accidents in relation to escalator. These may occur due to lack of maintenance which leads to systems breakdown, poor safety practices, wear and tear, users’ negligence and others. Thus, proper maintenance systems need to be improvised to prevent and reduce escalator accident in future. This research was aimed to determine the escalator maintenance activities and safety practices in a commercial building. Three case studies were selected within Selangor area. Semi-structured interviews were conducted for collecting data from these three case studies. To achieve the aim of this research, the study was carried out on the maintenance activities, safety practices and cost related to escalator maintenance. As one of the important means of access in building, it is very crucial to increase effectiveness of escalator particularly in commercial building. It is expected that readers will get clear information on the maintenance activities and safety practices of escalator in commercial building.

What If? Paths Not Taken

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logsdon, John M.

2005-01-01

I think the point of this exercise in counterfactual thinking is two-fold first, to recognize that not only have choices been made in the past that defined the character of what has happened and that different choices were possible and would have led to different outcomes, and, second, that we are currently making similar choices for the future. Today s choices obviously will have significant long-term consequences for space development. Decision-makers have an image of a desirable future when they make choices, but they also realize that the link between current choice and desired result is always uncertain. As the philosopher Yogi Berra is often quoted as having said, "making predictions is hard, especially when they are about the future."

Children's Gender Identity in Lesbian and Heterosexual Two-Parent Families.

PubMed

Bos, Henny; Sandfort, Theo G M

2010-01-01

This study compared gender identity, anticipated future heterosexual romantic involvement, and psychosocial adjustment of children in lesbian and heterosexual families; it was furthermore assessed whether associations between these aspects differed between family types. Data were obtained in the Netherlands from children in 63 lesbian families and 68 heterosexual families. All children were between 8 and 12 years old. Children in lesbian families felt less parental pressure to conform to gender stereotypes, were less likely to experience their own gender as superior and were more likely to be uncertain about future heterosexual romantic involvement. No differences were found on psychosocial adjustment. Gender typicality, gender contentedness and anticipated future heterosexual romantic involvement were significant predictors of psychosocial adjustment in both family types.

Theoretical explanations for maintenance of behaviour change: a systematic review of behaviour theories.

PubMed

Kwasnicka, Dominika; Dombrowski, Stephan U; White, Martin; Sniehotta, Falko

2016-09-01

Behaviour change interventions are effective in supporting individuals in achieving temporary behaviour change. Behaviour change maintenance, however, is rarely attained. The aim of this review was to identify and synthesise current theoretical explanations for behaviour change maintenance to inform future research and practice. Potentially relevant theories were identified through systematic searches of electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO). In addition, an existing database of 80 theories was searched, and 25 theory experts were consulted. Theories were included if they formulated hypotheses about behaviour change maintenance. Included theories were synthesised thematically to ascertain overarching explanations for behaviour change maintenance. Initial theoretical themes were cross-validated. One hundred and seventeen behaviour theories were identified, of which 100 met the inclusion criteria. Five overarching, interconnected themes representing theoretical explanations for behaviour change maintenance emerged. Theoretical explanations of behaviour change maintenance focus on the differential nature and role of motives, self-regulation, resources (psychological and physical), habits, and environmental and social influences from initiation to maintenance. There are distinct patterns of theoretical explanations for behaviour change and for behaviour change maintenance. The findings from this review can guide the development and evaluation of interventions promoting maintenance of health behaviours and help in the development of an integrated theory of behaviour change maintenance.

Theoretical explanations for maintenance of behaviour change: a systematic review of behaviour theories

PubMed Central

Kwasnicka, Dominika; Dombrowski, Stephan U; White, Martin; Sniehotta, Falko

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Behaviour change interventions are effective in supporting individuals in achieving temporary behaviour change. Behaviour change maintenance, however, is rarely attained. The aim of this review was to identify and synthesise current theoretical explanations for behaviour change maintenance to inform future research and practice. Methods: Potentially relevant theories were identified through systematic searches of electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO). In addition, an existing database of 80 theories was searched, and 25 theory experts were consulted. Theories were included if they formulated hypotheses about behaviour change maintenance. Included theories were synthesised thematically to ascertain overarching explanations for behaviour change maintenance. Initial theoretical themes were cross-validated. Findings: One hundred and seventeen behaviour theories were identified, of which 100 met the inclusion criteria. Five overarching, interconnected themes representing theoretical explanations for behaviour change maintenance emerged. Theoretical explanations of behaviour change maintenance focus on the differential nature and role of motives, self-regulation, resources (psychological and physical), habits, and environmental and social influences from initiation to maintenance. Discussion: There are distinct patterns of theoretical explanations for behaviour change and for behaviour change maintenance. The findings from this review can guide the development and evaluation of interventions promoting maintenance of health behaviours and help in the development of an integrated theory of behaviour change maintenance. PMID:26854092

Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.

Navy composite maintenance and repair experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnellan, T. M.; Cochran, R. C.; Rosenzweig, E. L.; Trabocco, R. E.

1992-01-01

The Navy has been a strong proponent of composites for aircraft structure. Fleet use of composites started with the F-14 in the early 1970's and has steadily increased. This experience base provides sufficient information to allow an evaluation of the maintenance performance of polymer composites in service. A summary is presented of the Navy's experience with maintenance of composite structure. The general types of damage experienced in the fleet as well as specific examples of composite damage to aircraft is described. The impact of future designs on supportability is also discussed.

Crew interface specifications preparation for in-flight maintenance and stowage functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, F. W.; Carlton, B. E.

1972-01-01

The findings and data products developed during the Phase 2 crew interface specification study are presented. Five new NASA general specifications were prepared: operations location coding system for crew interfaces; loose equipment and stowage management requirements; loose equipment and stowage data base information requirements; spacecraft loose equipment stowage drawing requirements; and inflight stowage management data requirements. Additional data was developed defining inflight maintenance processes and related data concepts for inflight troubleshooting, remove/repair/replace and scheduled maintenance activities. The process of maintenance task and equipment definition during spacecraft design and development was also defined and related data concepts were identified for futher development into formal NASA specifications during future follow-on study phases of the contract.

Four Generations of Maintenance Resource Management Programs in the United States: An Analysis of the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, James C.; Patankar, Manoj S.

2001-01-01

This paper analyzes four generations of Maintenance Resource Management (MRM) programs implemented by aviation maintenance organizations in the United States. Data collected from over ten years of survey research and field observations are used for this analysis; they are presented in a case-study format. The first three generations of MRM programs were episodic efforts to increase safety through teamwork, focus group discussions, and awareness courses, respectively. Now, the fourth generation programs, characterized by a commitment to long-term communication and behavioral changes in maintenance, are set to build on those earlier generations, toward a culture of mutual trust between mechanics, their managers, and regulators.

17 CFR 240.6h-1 - Settlement and regulatory halt requirements for security futures products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... investors and the public interest, taking into account such factors as fairness to buyers and sellers of the affected security futures product, the maintenance of a fair and orderly market in such security futures... with the protection of investors. An exemption granted pursuant to this paragraph shall not operate as...

Nuclear power generation and fuel cycle report 1997

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-09-01

Nuclear power is an important source of electric energy and the amount of nuclear-generated electricity continued to grow as the performance of nuclear power plants improved. In 1996, nuclear power plants supplied 23 percent of the electricity production for countries with nuclear units, and 17 percent of the total electricity generated worldwide. However, the likelihood of nuclear power assuming a much larger role or even retaining its current share of electricity generation production is uncertain. The industry faces a complex set of issues including economic competitiveness, social acceptance, and the handling of nuclear waste, all of which contribute to themore » uncertain future of nuclear power. Nevertheless, for some countries the installed nuclear generating capacity is projected to continue to grow. Insufficient indigenous energy resources and concerns over energy independence make nuclear electric generation a viable option, especially for the countries of the Far East.« less

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.

2012-07-01

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent Systemmore » Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.« less

Brief research report: uncertainty-inducing and reassuring facts about HPV: a descriptive study of French Canadian women.

PubMed

Rosen, Natalie O; Knäuper, Bärbel; Pagé, Gabrielle; Di Dio, Pasqualina; Morrison, Eleshia; Mayrand, Marie-Hélène; Franco, Eduardo L; Rosberger, Zeev

2009-10-01

We sought to describe information that makes women feel (1) uncertain and (2) reassured about their human papillomavirus (HPV) status and the potential health implications of an HPV DNA test result and (3) to examine information seeking after receiving their result. Thirty women (previously tested HPV negative) read factual information on HPV and cervical cancer and were asked which facts were uncertainty inducing and which were reassuring. Twenty-four facts reassured women of their HPV negative status, 11 facts made women feel uncertain, and 10 facts made them feel both. The most common reason for seeking information in the future was receiving a positive test result. The authors outline what specific facts about HPV health providers can emphasize to alleviate anxiety and encourage women to feel reassured of their low cancer risk following a negative test result.

Always Gamble on an Empty Stomach: Hunger Is Associated with Advantageous Decision Making

PubMed Central

de Ridder, Denise; Kroese, Floor; Adriaanse, Marieke; Evers, Catharine

2014-01-01

Three experimental studies examined the counterintuitive hypothesis that hunger improves strategic decision making, arguing that people in a hot state are better able to make favorable decisions involving uncertain outcomes. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants with more hunger or greater appetite made more advantageous choices in the Iowa Gambling Task compared to sated participants or participants with a smaller appetite. Study 3 revealed that hungry participants were better able to appreciate future big rewards in a delay discounting task; and that, in spite of their perception of increased rewarding value of both food and monetary objects, hungry participants were not more inclined to take risks to get the object of their desire. Together, these studies for the first time provide evidence that hot states improve decision making under uncertain conditions, challenging the conventional conception of the detrimental role of impulsivity in decision making. PMID:25340399

Always gamble on an empty stomach: hunger is associated with advantageous decision making.

PubMed

de Ridder, Denise; Kroese, Floor; Adriaanse, Marieke; Evers, Catharine

2014-01-01

Three experimental studies examined the counterintuitive hypothesis that hunger improves strategic decision making, arguing that people in a hot state are better able to make favorable decisions involving uncertain outcomes. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants with more hunger or greater appetite made more advantageous choices in the Iowa Gambling Task compared to sated participants or participants with a smaller appetite. Study 3 revealed that hungry participants were better able to appreciate future big rewards in a delay discounting task; and that, in spite of their perception of increased rewarding value of both food and monetary objects, hungry participants were not more inclined to take risks to get the object of their desire. Together, these studies for the first time provide evidence that hot states improve decision making under uncertain conditions, challenging the conventional conception of the detrimental role of impulsivity in decision making.

Multiple Stressors and the Functioning of Coral Reefs.

PubMed

Harborne, Alastair R; Rogers, Alice; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Mumby, Peter J

2017-01-03

Coral reefs provide critical services to coastal communities, and these services rely on ecosystem functions threatened by stressors. By summarizing the threats to the functioning of reefs from fishing, climate change, and decreasing water quality, we highlight that these stressors have multiple, conflicting effects on functionally similar groups of species and their interactions, and that the overall effects are often uncertain because of a lack of data or variability among taxa. The direct effects of stressors on links among functional groups, such as predator-prey interactions, are particularly uncertain. Using qualitative modeling, we demonstrate that this uncertainty of stressor impacts on functional groups (whether they are positive, negative, or neutral) can have significant effects on models of ecosystem stability, and reducing uncertainty is vital for understanding changes to reef functioning. This review also provides guidance for future models of reef functioning, which should include interactions among functional groups and the cumulative effect of stressors.

Parenchymal and airway diseases caused by asbestos.

PubMed

Antonescu-Turcu, Andreea L; Schapira, Ralph M

2010-03-01

The extensive industrial use of asbestos for many decades has been linked to development of benign and malignant pleuropulmonary disease. This review summarizes newer evidence and ongoing controversies that exist in the literature regarding asbestos-related parenchymal and airway diseases. Asbestosis represents a significant respiratory problem despite the improvement in the workplace hygiene and a decrease in use of asbestos. The management of asbestosis remains challenging as currently there is no specific treatment. The role of asbestos exposure alone as a cause of chronic airway obstruction remains uncertain. The relationship between lung cancer and asbestos exposure alone and in combination with smoking has also been investigated. The benefit of screening for asbestos-related pleuropulmonary disease remains uncertain as does the use of computed tomography scanning for the purpose of screening. Future studies will help clarify the clinical issues and shape screening strategies for asbestos-exposed individuals.

Multiple Stressors and the Functioning of Coral Reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harborne, Alastair R.; Rogers, Alice; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Mumby, Peter J.

2017-01-01

Coral reefs provide critical services to coastal communities, and these services rely on ecosystem functions threatened by stressors. By summarizing the threats to the functioning of reefs from fishing, climate change, and decreasing water quality, we highlight that these stressors have multiple, conflicting effects on functionally similar groups of species and their interactions, and that the overall effects are often uncertain because of a lack of data or variability among taxa. The direct effects of stressors on links among functional groups, such as predator-prey interactions, are particularly uncertain. Using qualitative modeling, we demonstrate that this uncertainty of stressor impacts on functional groups (whether they are positive, negative, or neutral) can have significant effects on models of ecosystem stability, and reducing uncertainty is vital for understanding changes to reef functioning. This review also provides guidance for future models of reef functioning, which should include interactions among functional groups and the cumulative effect of stressors.

Maintenance of syntenic groups between Cathartidae and Gallus gallus indicates symplesiomorphic karyotypes in new world vultures

PubMed Central

Tagliarini, Marcella M.; O'Brien, Patricia C.M.; Ferguson-Smith, Malcolm A.; de Oliveira, Edivaldo H.C.

2011-01-01

Similarities between New World and Old World vultures have been interpreted to reflect a close relationship and to suggest the inclusion of both in Accipitridae (Falconiformes). However, deeper analyses indicated that the placement of the New World vultures (cathartids) in this Order is uncertain. Chromosome analysis has shown that cathartids retained a karyotype similar to the putative avian ancestor. In order to verify the occurrence of intrachromosomal rearrangements in cathartids, we hybridized whole chromosome probes of two species (Gallus gallus and Leucopternis albicollis) onto metaphases of Cathartes aura. The results showed that not only were the syntenic groups conserved between Gallus and C. aura, but probably also the general gene order, suggesting that New World vultures share chromosomal symplesiomorphies with most bird lineages. PMID:21637548

23 CFR Appendix to Subpart B of... - Horizontal and Vertical Clearance Provisions for Overpass and Underpass Structures

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... maintenance road or by evidence of future need for such equipment. All piers should be placed at least 2.8... up to 2.5 meters as may be necessary for off-track maintenance equipment, provided adequate... road crossings for this purpose. Where not feasible, an additional structure width of 2.5 meters may be...

Technology Proliferation: Acquisition Strategies and Opportunities for an Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-04-20

The large programs of record characteristic of federal acquisition consist of rigorous research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E...and evaluation (IOT&E) activities drive the program toward the decision to enter full rate production (FRP). Finally, in the sustainment phase, the...the new feature by a full release at a later date, or halt the development altogether. As stated by the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation

When Antimicrobial Stewardship Isn′t Watching: The Educational Impact of Critical Care Prospective Audit and Feedback

PubMed Central

Fleming, Dimitra; Ali, Karim F.; Matelski, John; D'Sa, Ryan; Powis, Jeff

2016-01-01

Prospective audit and feedback (PAF) is an effective strategy to optimize antimicrobial use in the critical care setting, yet whether skills gained during PAF influence future antimicrobial prescribing is uncertain. This multisite study demonstrates that knowledge learned during PAF is translated and incorporated into the practice of critical care physicians even when not supported by an antimicrobial stewardship program. PMID:27382599

With Help & Hope ... Dreams Do Come True: A Look at Easter Seals Therapeutic Day School of Chicago

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leone, Kristen B.

2007-01-01

Maurice Snell, 23, has beaten the odds. A young man living with autism, he has a college degree and a job. For many with autism, such achievements may be beyond reach. Maurice has a milder form of this complex neurological disorder, but his future was uncertain for most of his childhood. For years Maurice was nonverbal, and no one had an answer…

Electronics Manufacturing Seminar Proceedings. 17th Annual

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-01

a CFC Solvent Cleaning Alternative Page 3 In operation dirty parts are immersed in the boil cham- ber where they contact the agitated mixture of...component. Some glycol ethers have an uncertain regulatory future due to a variety of health concerns. Semi-aqueous solvents can have a strong odor . Proper...thermoset 5 materials, elastomers, marking inks, sealants, and locking compounds after repeated exposure to the selected cleaners. Epoxy and polyimide PWBs

Critical Code: Software Producibility for Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the hazard of a single system failing can often be associated with a much larger aggregate of systems, often spread across a wide geography. The...four words: fault, error, failure, and hazard . These are defined and illustrated in Box 4.2. Information Loss and Traceability As noted above, the...design information when payback is uncertain, diffuse , or most likely far in the future. A goal in formulating incentive models that motivate developer

Otitis Media with Effusion: Its Significance in the Deaf Student.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

Otitis media with effusion currently ranks as the most common cause of hearing loss in children of preschool and school age. Otitis media with...makes the difference between usable auditory input and useless noise. The etiology of otitis media with effusion is uncertain. Its educational...paper explores the extent of otitis media with effusion, its effects, what methods are available for detection, current and future methods of medical

Natural gas hydrates; vast resource, uncertain future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collett, T.S.

2001-01-01

Gas hydrates are naturally occurring icelike solids in which water molecules trap gas molecules in a cagelike structure known as a clathrate. Although many gases form hydrates in nature, methane hydrate is by far the most common; methane is the most abundant natural gas. The volume of carbon contained in methane hydrates worldwide is estimated to be twice the amount contained in all fossil fuels on Earth, including coal.

Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

2012-01-01

Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at Fort Huachuca, Arizona

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

2013-01-01

Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

Cooking the Books: What Counts as Literacy for Young Children in a Public Library?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Helen Victoria

2018-01-01

At a time when government funding cuts mean that public libraries face an uncertain future and need to make sure they stay relevant to young users and their families, this paper explores what counts as literacy for young children in a public library in a town in the East Midlands, UK. It is based on a study which adopted an ethnographic approach,…

Back from the Future: The Impact of Change on Airpower in the Decades Ahead

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

generic/story_generic.jsp?channel= awst &id=news/aw021108p2.xml&headline=Fate%20of%20F -22,%20C-17%20Lines%20Uncertain%20in%20Fiscal%202009; Pierre Sprey...second lot of low-rate initial production aircraft was announced on 22 May 2008 as $2.2 billion for 12 aircraft, and Maj Gen Charles R . Davis, USAF, the

The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-16

Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered through health insurance exchanges. b. Consists of excise taxes, remittances to the...and employment in the next few years. The deficit reduction under the other sce- narios, by contrast, would decrease the demand for goods and services...and thus reduce output and employment in the next few years. How Uncertain Are the Long-Term Budget Projections? Even if future tax and spending

Octane and Internal Combustion Engine Advancements from a Long(er) Term Perspective: Insights from the Co-Optima Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farrell, John T

Co-Optima research and analysis have identified fuel properties that enable advanced LD and HD engines. 95 RON will directionally improve boosted SI efficiency, but higher RON and S provide additional benefits. The optimal fuel properties for future engines are still uncertain. There are a large number of blendstocks readily derived from biomass (and petroleum) that possess beneficial properties.

43 CFR 431.9 - Future regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Future regulations. 431.9 Section 431.9 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands BUREAU OF RECLAMATION, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GENERAL REGULATIONS FOR POWER GENERATION, OPERATION, MAINTENANCE, AND REPLACEMENT AT THE BOULDER...

43 CFR 431.9 - Future regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Future regulations. 431.9 Section 431.9 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands BUREAU OF RECLAMATION, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GENERAL REGULATIONS FOR POWER GENERATION, OPERATION, MAINTENANCE, AND REPLACEMENT AT THE BOULDER...

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity analysis to help answer this question, and make the computation of sensitivity indices computationally tractable using a combination of polynomial chaos and Monte Carlo techniques.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover and vegetation in modulating climate-chemistry interactions, and highlight aspects that warrant further investigation.

[Design of medical equipment service management system].

PubMed

Jiang, Youhao; PengWen; Jiang, Ningfeng; Ma, Li; Kong, Lingwei; Yin, PeiHao; Sun, Cheng

2012-09-01

To develop a maintenance management system for medical equipment based on HIS. The system contains some special functions( including preventive maintenance, automatic job dispatch, performance assessment, etc.) which are very useful for confirming the medical equipment in proper conditions and promoting the working efficiency of the staff. The system provides technical support for the improvement of the maintenance management level. The system, completed the software design using C/S, B/S combination mode. The system realized clients of various sections of zero maintenance, and make the data manipulation, statistical features of equipment management department more convenient. the system connects the subsystems closer and interacts information from time to time, forming a tight network structure. This provides a basis for future hospital-wide information integration.

Advanced servomanipulator remote maintenance demonstration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradley, E.C.; Ladd, L.D.

1988-01-01

The Fuel Recycle Division (FRD) of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is developing remote maintenance systems for the Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program for applications in future nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The most recent development is the advanced servomanipulator (ASM), a digitally controlled, force-reflecting, dual-arm, master/slave servomanipulator. A unique feature of ASM is that the slave arms are remotely maintainable. The ASM slave arms are composed of modules, each of which is capable of being removed and replaced by another manipulator system. The intent of this test was to demonstrate that the ASM slave arms could be completely disassembled andmore » reassembled remotely. This remote maintenance demonstration was performed using the Remote Operations and Maintenance Demonstration (ROMD) facility model M-2 servomanipulator maintenance system. Maintenance of ASM was successfully demonstrated using the M-2 servomanipulator and special fixtures. Recommendations, generally applicable to other remotely maintained equipment, have been made for maintainability improvements. 3 refs., 5 figs.« less

"It wasn't a disaster or anything": Parents' experiences of their child's uncertain chromosomal microarray result.

PubMed

Wilkins, Ella J; Archibald, Alison D; Sahhar, Margaret A; White, Susan M

2016-11-01

Chromosomal microarray is an increasingly utilized diagnostic test, particularly in the pediatric setting. However, the clinical significance of copy number variants detected by this technology is not always understood, creating uncertainties in interpreting and communicating results. The aim of this study was to explore parents' experiences of an uncertain microarray result for their child. This research utilized a qualitative approach with a phenomenological methodology. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine parents of eight children who received an uncertain microarray result for their child, either a 16p11.2 microdeletion or 15q13.3 microdeletion. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and thematic analysis was used to identify themes within the data. Participants were unprepared for the abnormal test result. They had a complex perception of the extent of their child's condition and a mixed understanding of the clinical relevance of the result, but were accepting of the limitations of medical knowledge, and appeared to have adapted to the result. The test result was empowering for parents in terms of access to medical and educational services; however, they articulated significant unmet support needs. Participants expressed hope for the future, in particular that more information would become available over time. This research has demonstrated that parents of children who have an uncertain microarray result appeared to adapt to uncertainty and limited availability of information and valued honesty and empathic ongoing support from health professionals. Genetic health professionals are well positioned to provide such support and aid patients' and families' adaptation to their situation as well as promote empowerment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effect of smoking status on the efficacy of the SMART regimen in high risk asthma.

PubMed

Pilcher, Janine; Patel, Mitesh; Reddel, Helen K; Pritchard, Alison; Black, Peter; Shaw, Dominick; Holt, Shaun; Weatherall, Mark; Beasley, Richard

2016-07-01

The optimal management of people with asthma with a significant smoking history is uncertain. The aim of this study was to determine whether the efficacy/safety profile of single combination inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)/long acting beta-agonist (LABA) inhaler maintenance and reliever therapy is influenced by smoking status. We undertook secondary analyses from an open-label 24-week randomized study of 303 high risk adult asthma patients randomized to budesonide/formoterol 200/6-µg-metred dose inhaler for maintenance (two actuations twice daily) and either budesonide/formoterol 200/6-µg-metred dose inhaler one actuation ('single ICS/LABA maintenance and reliever therapy (SMART)' regimen) or salbutamol 100 µg 1-2 actuations for symptom relief ('Standard' regimen). Smoking status was classified in to three groups, as 'current', 'ex' or 'never', and a smoking/treatment interaction term tested for each outcome variable. The primary outcome variable was number of participants with at least one severe exacerbation. There were 59 current, 97 ex and 147 never smokers included in the analyses. The smoking status/treatment interaction term was not statistically significant for any of the outcome measures. With adjustment for smoking status, the number of participants with severe exacerbations was lower with the SMART regimen (OR 0.45, 95% CI: 0.26-0.77, P = 0.004; P value for interaction between smoking status and treatment 0.29). We conclude that the favourable safety/efficacy profile of the SMART regimen applies to patients with high risk asthma, irrespective of smoking status. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Carbon and Earth’s future climate on This Week @NASA – November 13, 2015

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-11-13

New observations from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission is providing insight into how Earth is responding to rising levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, and what this means for our future climate. Earth’s land and ocean currently absorb about half of all carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, but it’s uncertain whether the planet can keep this up in the future. Later this month, a United Nations climate meeting in Paris will focus on setting limits on future levels of human-produced carbon emissions. OCO-2 is NASA’s first satellite dedicated to measuring carbon dioxide. Also, New Horizons science update, NASA at Bay Area Science Festival, Anniversary of first spacecraft landing on a comet, Cygnus being prepared for launch, and Girls Rising in Math and Science!

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Brown, Nicholas R.; Slaybaugh, Rachel

Here, we review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply itwith minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO 2 capture and sequestration. Two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) are discussed as exciting but uncertain additional options for low net GHG emissions (“low-carbon”) electricity generation. Grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes) are also discussed. For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed,more » along with technical challenges, costs and other issues as appropriate. While no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.« less

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Brown, Nicholas R.; Slaybaugh, Rachel

We review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply it with minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal, and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO2 capture and sequestration. We discuss two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) as exciting but uncertain additional options for low-net GHG emissions (i.e., low-carbon) electricity generation. In addition, we discuss grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes). For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed,more » along with technical challenges, costs, and other issues as appropriate. Although no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.« less

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

DOE PAGES

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Brown, Nicholas R.; Slaybaugh, Rachel; ...

2017-07-10

Here, we review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply itwith minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO 2 capture and sequestration. Two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) are discussed as exciting but uncertain additional options for low net GHG emissions (“low-carbon”) electricity generation. Grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes) are also discussed. For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed,more » along with technical challenges, costs and other issues as appropriate. While no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.« less

Catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climatic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, W.; Zhang, C.; Li, Y.; Tang, Y.; Wang, D.; Xu, B.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic responses to climate variability and change are important for human society. Here we test the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategies for evapotranspiration and water storage carryover with uncertain future precipitation. The hedging strategy for evapotranspiration in catchments under different levels of water availability is analytically derived from the economic perspective. It is found that there exists hedging between evapotranspiration for current and future only with a portion of water availability. Observation data sets of 160 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1983 to 2003 demonstrate the existence of hedging in catchment hydrology and validate the proposed hedging strategies. We also find that more water is allocated to carryover storage for hedging against the future evapotranspiration risk in the catchments with larger aridity indexes or with larger uncertainty in future precipitation, i.e., long-term climate and precipitation variability control the degree of hedging.

The state of American health care: November 2016 to November 2020, a look forward.

PubMed

Marmor, Theodore; Gusmano, Michael K

2018-01-01

The election of Donald Trump, coupled with the retention of Republican majorities in the US House of Representatives and Senate, raises questions about future of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, the structure and funding of the country's public health insurance programs - Medicare, Medicaid and the Child Health Insurance Program - and the direction of health policy in the United States, more generally. Political scientists are not renowned for their capacity to predict the future and many of those who forecast election results have received criticism in recent weeks for failing to predict the Trump victory. While the future is uncertain, it is possible for social scientists to offer a 'conditional causal analysis' about the future. This essay is an effort to think about the likely shape of American health care between now and the next US presidential election.

Design/build vs. traditional construction user delay modeling : an evaluation of the cost effectiveness of innovative construction methods for new construction. Part 1 : I-15 reconstruction in Davis County : evaluation of various traffic maintenance plans

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-05-01

This paper evaluates impact of various I-15 reconstruction closure scenarios on the travelers in Ogden area. The purpose of the research was to investigate impact of the scenarios and facilitate decision about future maintenance of traffic during the...

Age-Related Phasic Patterns of Mitochondrial Maintenance in Adult Caenorhabditis elegans Neurons

PubMed Central

Morsci, Natalia S.; Hall, David H.

2016-01-01

Aging is associated with cognitive decline and increasing risk of neurodegeneration. Perturbation of mitochondrial function, dynamics, and trafficking are implicated in the pathogenesis of several age-associated neurodegenerative diseases. Despite this fundamental importance, the critical understanding of how organismal aging affects lifetime neuronal mitochondrial maintenance remains unknown, particularly in a physiologically relevant context. To address this issue, we performed a comprehensive in vivo analysis of age-associated changes in mitochondrial morphology, density, trafficking, and stress resistance in individual Caenorhabditis elegans neurons throughout adult life. Adult neurons display three distinct stages of increase, maintenance, and decrease in mitochondrial size and density during adulthood. Mitochondrial trafficking in the distal neuronal processes declines progressively with age starting from early adulthood. In contrast, long-lived daf-2 mutants exhibit delayed age-associated changes in mitochondrial morphology, constant mitochondrial density, and maintained trafficking rates during adulthood. Reduced mitochondrial load at late adulthood correlates with decreased mitochondrial resistance to oxidative stress. Revealing aging-associated changes in neuronal mitochondria in vivo is an essential precedent that will allow future elucidation of the mechanistic causes of mitochondrial aging. Thus, our study establishes the critical foundation for the future analysis of cellular pathways and genetic and pharmacological factors regulating mitochondrial maintenance in aging- and disease-relevant conditions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using Caenorhabditis elegans as a model, we address long-standing questions: How does aging affect neuronal mitochondrial morphology, density, trafficking, and oxidative stress resistance? Are these age-related changes amenable to genetic manipulations that slow down the aging process? Our study illustrates that mitochondrial trafficking declines progressively from the first day of adulthood, whereas mitochondrial size, density, and resistance to oxidative stress undergo three distinct stages: increase in early adulthood, maintenance at high levels during mid-adulthood, and decline during late adulthood. Thus, our study characterizes mitochondrial aging profile at the level of a single neuron in its native environment and establishes the critical foundation for the future genetic and pharmacological dissection of factors that influence long-term mitochondrial maintenance in neurons. PMID:26818523

Runways at small airports are deteriorating because of deferred maintenance: Action needed by FAA and the Congress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1982-09-01

Runways at many small airports are deteriorating faster than necessary because airport owners--usually local governments--have deferred critical maintenance. The result is damage to the runways' basic structure and a shortened useful life if they are not repaired. Based on GAO's review of 46 airports, studies by others, and the views of FAA officials, deferred maintenance is apparently a longstanding nationwide problem. Lack of funds is cited by airport owners as the primary reason for not performing needed maintenance; however, the Federal Aviation Administration's apathy to bring about satisfactory maintenance is a contributing cause. GAO is recommending actions that FAA can take to help ensure that runways at small airports are properly maintained. The Congress should recognize the airport owners' lack of resources to properly maintain airports when considering future revisions to the Airport Improvement Program.

Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties.

PubMed

Urich, Christian; Rauch, Wolfgang

2014-12-01

Long-term projections for key drivers needed in urban water infrastructure planning such as climate change, population growth, and socio-economic changes are deeply uncertain. Traditional planning approaches heavily rely on these projections, which, if a projection stays unfulfilled, can lead to problematic infrastructure decisions causing high operational costs and/or lock-in effects. New approaches based on exploratory modelling take a fundamentally different view. Aim of these is, to identify an adaptation strategy that performs well under many future scenarios, instead of optimising a strategy for a handful. However, a modelling tool to support strategic planning to test the implication of adaptation strategies under deeply uncertain conditions for urban water management does not exist yet. This paper presents a first step towards a new generation of such strategic planning tools, by combing innovative modelling tools, which coevolve the urban environment and urban water infrastructure under many different future scenarios, with robust decision making. The developed approach is applied to the city of Innsbruck, Austria, which is spatially explicitly evolved 20 years into the future under 1000 scenarios to test the robustness of different adaptation strategies. Key findings of this paper show that: (1) Such an approach can be used to successfully identify parameter ranges of key drivers in which a desired performance criterion is not fulfilled, which is an important indicator for the robustness of an adaptation strategy; and (2) Analysis of the rich dataset gives new insights into the adaptive responses of agents to key drivers in the urban system by modifying a strategy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE PAGES

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; ...

2016-06-16

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Air Force Journal of Logistics. Volume XXIII, Number 4, Winter 1999

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

needs of the Air Force. 2. Uses existing software developed by base-level Air Force Reserve Command units as a benchmark. MSgt Maura A. Barton, DSN... Maura A. Barton, DSN 596-4581 Follow-on Technical Support for the Weapons Load Crew Management Program LM199812000—Consulting Study 1. Ensures the... Kelly AFB, an aging munitions infrastructure, and current runway restrictions for airlift aircraft make the future of that STAMP location uncertain

Mutually Assured Deletion: The Uncertain Future of Mass Destruction In Cyberspace

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

an indelible impression on practitioners and prognosticators alike. Its integration was initially quiet, seeping into the collective consciousness ...rivals anything before witnessed in the history of warfare, a “ quantum leap forward in the level of threat.” 1 Like a wolf in sheep’s clothing, cyber...tendency toward consistency often leads to neglect ( consciously or not) of stimuli that do not fit pre-existing notions.32 Analogies, then, and

Effective Capital Provision Within Government. Methodologies for Right-Sizing Base Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

unknown distributions, since they more accurately represent the complexity of real -world problems. Forecasting uncertain future demand flows is critical to...ordering system with no time lags and no additional costs for instantaneous delivery, shortage and holding costs would be eliminated, because the...order a fixed quantity, Q. 4.1.4 Analyzed Time Step Time is an important dimension in inventory models, since the way the system changes over time affects

Historical changes in the Mississippi-Alabama barrier-island chain and the roles of extreme storms, sea level, and human activities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, R.A.

2008-01-01

Barrier-island chains worldwide are undergoing substantial changes, and their futures remain uncertain. An historical analysis of a barrier-island chain in the north-central Gulf of Mexico shows that the Mississippi barriers are undergoing rapid systematic land loss and translocation associated with: (1) unequal lateral transfer of sand related to greater updrift erosion compared to downdrift deposition; (2) barrier narrowing resulting from simultaneous erosion of shores along the Gulf and Mississippi Sound; and (3) barrier segmentation related to storm breaching. Dauphin Island, Alabama, is also losing land for some of the same reasons as it gradually migrates landward. The principal causes of land loss are frequent intense storms, a relative rise in sea level, and a sediment-budget deficit. Considering the predicted trends for storms and sea level related to global warming, it is certain that the Mississippi-Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands will continue to lose land area at a rapid rate unless the trend of at least one causal factor reverses. Historical land-loss trends and engineering records show that progressive increases in land-loss rate correlate with nearly simultaneous deepening of channels dredged across the outer bars of the three tidal inlets maintained for deep-draft shipping. This correlation indicates that channel-maintenance activities along the MS-AL barriers have impacted the sediment budget by disrupting the alongshore sediment transport system and progressively reducing sand supply. Direct management of this causal factor can be accomplished by strategically placing dredged sediment where adjacent barrier-island shores will receive it for island nourishment and rebuilding.

CAI System Costs: Present and Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pressman, Israel; Rosenbloom, Bruce

1984-01-01

Discusses costs related to providing computer assisted instruction (CAI), considering hardware, software, user training, maintenance, and installation. Provides an example of the total cost of CAI broken down into these categories, giving an adjusted yearly cost. Projects future trends and costs of CAI as well as cost savings possibilities. (JM)

Variational Assimilation of Sparse and Uncertain Satellite Data For 1D Saint-Venant River Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garambois, P. A.; Brisset, P.; Monnier, J.; Roux, H.

2016-12-01

Profusion of satellites are providing increasingly accurate measurements of continental water cyle, and water bodies variations while in situ observability is declining. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will provide maps of river surface elevations widths and slopes with an almost global coverage and temporal revisits. This will offer the possibility to address a larger variety of inverse problems in surface hydrology. Data assimilation techniques, that are broadly used in several scientific fields, aim to optimally combine models, system observations and prior information. Variational assimilation consists in iterative minimization of a discrepency measure between model outputs and observations, here for retrieving boundary conditions and parameters of a 1D Saint Venant model. Nevertheless, inferring river discharge and hydraulic parameters thanks to the observation of river surface is not straightforward. This is particularly true in the case of sparse and uncertain observations of flow state variables since they are governed by nonlinear physical processes. This paper investigates the identifiability of hydraulic controls given sparse and uncertain satellite observations of a river. The identifiability of river discharge alone and with roughness is tested for several spatio temporal patterns of river observations, including SWOT like observations. A new 1D Shallow water model with variational data assimilation, within the DassFlow chain is presented as well as postprocessing and observation operator dedicated to the future SWOT and SWOT simulator data. In view to decrease inverse problem dimensionality discharge is represented in a reduced basis. Moreover we introduce an original and reduced parametrization of the flow resistance that can account for various flow regimes along with a cross section design dedicated to remote sensing. We show which discharge temporal frequencies can be identified w.r.t observation ones and at which accuracy. Eventually the important question of the discharge identifiability potential between observation times and depending on the spatio-temporal sampling is adressed with respect to the wave lengths of the hydrological signals.

Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2017-04-01

Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design, thus alleviating the risk of mis-adaptation, namely the design of a solution fully adapted to a scenario that is different from the one that will actually realize.

Robotic assembly and maintenance of future space stations based on the ISS mission operations experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rembala, Richard; Ower, Cameron

2009-10-01

MDA has provided 25 years of real-time engineering support to Shuttle (Canadarm) and ISS (Canadarm2) robotic operations beginning with the second shuttle flight STS-2 in 1981. In this capacity, our engineering support teams have become familiar with the evolution of mission planning and flight support practices for robotic assembly and support operations at mission control. This paper presents observations on existing practices and ideas to achieve reduced operational overhead to present programs. It also identifies areas where robotic assembly and maintenance of future space stations and space-based facilities could be accomplished more effectively and efficiently. Specifically, our experience shows that past and current space Shuttle and ISS assembly and maintenance operations have used the approach of extensive preflight mission planning and training to prepare the flight crews for the entire mission. This has been driven by the overall communication latency between the earth and remote location of the space station/vehicle as well as the lack of consistent robotic and interface standards. While the early Shuttle and ISS architectures included robotics, their eventual benefits on the overall assembly and maintenance operations could have been greater through incorporating them as a major design driver from the beginning of the system design. Lessons learned from the ISS highlight the potential benefits of real-time health monitoring systems, consistent standards for robotic interfaces and procedures and automated script-driven ground control in future space station assembly and logistics architectures. In addition, advances in computer vision systems and remote operation, supervised autonomous command and control systems offer the potential to adjust the balance between assembly and maintenance tasks performed using extra vehicular activity (EVA), extra vehicular robotics (EVR) and EVR controlled from the ground, offloading the EVA astronaut and even the robotic operator on-orbit of some of the more routine tasks. Overall these proposed approaches when used effectively offer the potential to drive down operations overhead and allow more efficient and productive robotic operations.

Translating Uncertain Sea Level Projections Into Infrastructure Impacts Using a Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, Hamed; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A.; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2017-12-01

Climate change may affect ocean-driven coastal flooding regimes by both raising the mean sea level (msl) and altering ocean-atmosphere interactions. For reliable projections of coastal flood risk, information provided by different climate models must be considered in addition to associated uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a framework to project future coastal water levels and quantify the resulting flooding hazard to infrastructure. We use Bayesian Model Averaging to generate a weighted ensemble of storm surge predictions from eight climate models for two coastal counties in California. The resulting ensembles combined with msl projections, and predicted astronomical tides are then used to quantify changes in the likelihood of road flooding under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the near-future (1998-2063) and mid-future (2018-2083). The results show that road flooding rates will be significantly higher in the near-future and mid-future compared to the recent past (1950-2015) if adaptation measures are not implemented.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin A.

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use servicemore » demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.« less

Practice makes perfect: self-reported adherence a positive marker of inhaler technique maintenance.

PubMed

Azzi, Elizabeth; Srour, Pamela; Armour, Carol; Rand, Cynthia; Bosnic-Anticevich, Sinthia

2017-04-24

Poor inhaler technique and non-adherence to treatment are major problems in the management of asthma. Patients can be taught how to achieve good inhaler technique, however maintenance remains problematic, with 50% of patients unable to demonstrate correct technique. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical, patient-related and/or device-related factors that predict inhaler technique maintenance. Data from a quality-controlled longitudinal community care dataset was utilized. 238 patients using preventer medications where included. Data consisted of patient demographics, clinical data, medication-related factors and patient-reported outcomes. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to identify predictors of inhaler technique maintenance at 1 month. The variables found to be independently associated with inhaler technique maintenance using logistic regression (Χ 2 (3,n = 238) = 33.24, p < 0.000) were inhaler technique at Visit 1 (OR 7.1), device type (metered dose inhaler and dry powder inhalers) (OR 2.2) and self-reported adherent behavior in the prior 7 days (OR 1.3). This research is the first to unequivocally establish a predictive relationship between inhaler technique maintenance and actual patient adherence, reinforcing the notion that inhaler technique maintenance is more than just a physical skill. Inhaler technique maintenance has an underlying behavioral component, which future studies need to investigate. BEHAVIORAL ELEMENT TO CORRECT LONG-TERM INHALER TECHNIQUES: Patients who consciously make an effort to perfect asthma inhaler technique will maintain their skills long-term. Elizabeth Azzi at the University of Sydney, Australia, and co-workers further add evidence that there is a strong behavioral component to patients retaining correct inhaler technique over time. Poor inhaler technique can limit asthma control, affecting quality of life and increasing the chances of severe exacerbations. Azzi's team followed 238 patients to determine the key predictors of inhaler technique maintenance from factors including age, asthma knowledge and perceived future risks. Correct inhaler technique at initial assessment was the strongest predictor of long-term success, but this was strengthened further when patients reported good adherence to their own medication regimen. This suggests that maintaining correct inhaler technique is more than just a physical skill. Careful guidance towards this 'practice makes perfect' approach may improve patients' long-term technique maintenance.

Pocket-depths-related effectiveness of an intrapocket anaesthesia gel in periodontal maintenance patients.

PubMed

Derman, S H M; Lowden, C E; Kaus, P; Noack, M J

2014-05-01

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the pocket depth on the effectiveness of an intrapocket anaesthesia gel during SRP in periodontal maintenance patients. Effectiveness was measured by pain levels during SRP via visual analogue scale (VAS) and verbal rating scale (VRS). Secondary endpoint was the evaluation of patients' preferred choice of anaesthesia for SRP. A total of 638 patients undergoing the periodontal maintenance programme and with the need for SRP participated in this observational study. After SRP, patients filled in questionnaires to record pain levels experienced and anaesthesia preference for future use. Mann-Whitney U-test was used to analyse intergroup difference in pain perception and anaesthesia choice. Overall, increasing pocket depths were accompanied by higher pain levels, irrespective of maximum or commonest pocket depths (P < 0.05). For SRP procedures, patients definitely prefer the anaesthesia gel (72.4%). In this study, an effectiveness of local anaesthesia gel (lidocaine/prilocaine) related to pocket depths was found in periodontal maintenance patients during SRP. Increasing pocket depths were accompanied by increasing procedural pain levels. Nevertheless, the anaesthesia gel is well accepted and in the majority of cases was found to be the preferred option for future SRP treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pregnancies associated with sperm concentrations below 10 million/ml in clinical studies of a potential male contraceptive method, monthly depot medroxyprogesterone acetate and testosterone esters.

PubMed

Barfield, A; Melo, J; Coutinho, E; Alvarez-Sanchez, F; Faundes, A; Brache, V; Leon, P; Frick, J; Bartsch, G; Weiske, W H; Brenner, P; Mishell, D; Bernstein, G; Ortiz, A

1979-08-01

A potential male contraceptive approach was evaluated in clinical trials involving monthly injections of depot medroxyprogesterone acetate and either subdermal implants of testosterone propionate or monthly injections of testosterone enanthate. Pregnancies occurred in partners of 9 men with recent sperm counts of 10 million/ml or below. In 5 of the 9 instances, the sperm counts were less than 1 million/ml. It appears that male contraceptive methods involving spermatogenic suppression may require attainment and maintenance of azoospermia. The pregnancy rate cannot be calculated, because the extent of other contraceptive use is uncertain. There were no spontaneous abortions. 6 pregnancies were carried to term, and all progeny were normal, based on physical examination at birth or 3 months after birth.

Genomics of Preterm Birth

PubMed Central

Swaggart, Kayleigh A.; Pavlicev, Mihaela; Muglia, Louis J.

2015-01-01

The molecular mechanisms controlling human birth timing at term, or resulting in preterm birth, have been the focus of considerable investigation, but limited insights have been gained over the past 50 years. In part, these processes have remained elusive because of divergence in reproductive strategies and physiology shown by model organisms, making extrapolation to humans uncertain. Here, we summarize the evolution of progesterone signaling and variation in pregnancy maintenance and termination. We use this comparative physiology to support the hypothesis that selective pressure on genomic loci involved in the timing of parturition have shaped human birth timing, and that these loci can be identified with comparative genomic strategies. Previous limitations imposed by divergence of mechanisms provide an important new opportunity to elucidate fundamental pathways of parturition control through increasing availability of sequenced genomes and associated reproductive physiology characteristics across diverse organisms. PMID:25646385

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

Using scenario analysis to determine managed care strategy.

PubMed

Krentz, S E; Gish, R S

2000-09-01

In today's volatile healthcare environment, traditional planning tools are inadequate to guide financial managers of provider organizations in developing managed care strategies. These tools often disregard the uncertainty surrounding market forces such as employee benefit structure, the future of Medicare managed care, and the impact of consumer behavior. Scenario analysis overcomes this limitation by acknowledging the uncertain healthcare environment and articulating a set of plausible alternative futures, thus supplying financial executives with the perspective to craft strategies that can improve the market position of their organizations. By being alert for trigger points that might signal the rise of a specific scenario, financial managers can increase their preparedness for changes in market forces.

Mandibular overdentures: a review of treatment philosophy and prosthodontic maintenance.

PubMed

Al-Zubeidi, Mohammed I; Payne, Alan G T

2007-12-01

Root overdentures and implant overdentures are two similar treatment options for the nearly-edentulous or edentulous mandible. The purpose of this literature review was to specifically compare their prosthodontic treatment philosophies and follow-up maintenance requirements. Critical comparison of these two prosthodontic treatment philosophies revealed that the foundation for overdentures which is provided by oral implants is more predictable than that provided by the roots of natural teeth. The two treatment modalities have both similarities and differences in their associated prosthodontic maintenance. The findings of this literature review suggest the future possibility that mandibular root overdentures may become obsolete as a treatment approach.

Space station needs, attributes, and architectural options: Technology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robert, A. C.

1983-01-01

The technology development of the space station is examined as it relates to space station growth and equipment requirements for future missions. Future mission topics are refined and used to establish a systems data base. Technology for human factors engineering, space maintenance, satellite design, and laser communications and tracking is discussed.

The Formation of Future Socionomic Experts' Conflictological Culture in Germany and Austria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Branitska, Tetiana

2015-01-01

At the present stage of Ukrainian society development there is a requirement for studying and the analysis of the maintenance of experts' preparation in social, socially pedagogical sphere in foreign countries. Therefore the great value has research of experience in theoretical and practical preparation of the future socionomic experts in the…

17 CFR 1.12 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by futures commission merchants and introducing...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... commission merchant or who files an application for registration as a futures commission merchant, and each person registered as an introducing broker or who files an application for registration as an introducing... pursuant to, or who has filed concurrently with its application for registration, a guarantee agreement and...

17 CFR 1.12 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by futures commission merchants and introducing...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... commission merchant or who files an application for registration as a futures commission merchant, and each person registered as an introducing broker or who files an application for registration as an introducing... pursuant to, or who has filed concurrently with its application for registration, a guarantee agreement and...

17 CFR 1.12 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by futures commission merchants and introducing...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... commission merchant or who files an application for registration as a futures commission merchant, and each person registered as an introducing broker or who files an application for registration as an introducing... pursuant to, or who has filed concurrently with its application for registration, a guarantee agreement and...

17 CFR 1.12 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by futures commission merchants and introducing...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... commission merchant or who files an application for registration as a futures commission merchant, and each person registered as an introducing broker or who files an application for registration as an introducing... pursuant to, or who has filed concurrently with its application for registration, a guarantee agreement and...

Still in the Shadows with Their Future Uncertain. A Report on Family and Individual Needs for Disability Supports (FINDS), 2011. Summary of Key Findings and a Call to Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Lynda; Larson, Sheryl A.; Wuorio, Allise; Lakin, K. Charlie

2011-01-01

In light of the fiftieth anniversary of President Kennedy's call to action back in 1961, The Arc wanted to know if people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD) are still living in the shadows. So, they launched a national online survey, Family and Individual Needs for Disability Supports (FINDS), from July 22, 2010 to October 31,…

A study of crystal growth by solution technique. [triglycine sulfate single crystals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lal, R. B.

1979-01-01

The advantages and mechanisms of crystal growth from solution are discussed as well as the effects of impurity adsorption on the kinetics of crystal growth. Uncertainities regarding crystal growth in a low gravity environment are examined. Single crystals of triglycine sulfate were grown using a low temperature solution technique. Small components were assembled and fabricated for future space flights. A space processing experiment proposal accepted by NASA for the Spacelab-3 mission is included.

The Majorana mystery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Salvatore

2010-03-01

"For years after I first learned about Ettore Majorana, I wanted to write a book about his life... but I always deferred to an uncertain future the act of putting pen to paper. Then, one day I read a newspaper clipping and realized that the mystery was about to come full circle. Ettore had just turned one hundred, and a major discovery had been made in the deep waters near Catania. The time had arrived for the final unveiling of the Majorana legacy."

More tooth, Less Skull: Force Structure Changes for an Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-17

deployments in OIF and OEF are the archetypes for force employment and span of control, highlighting the limits of modularity and the creation of ad hoc...square miles in extent. There was a wider dispersion of formations to minimize the effect of an enemy’s tactical atomic weapons. At the same time, this...The sweeping reorganization to meet the requirements of the atomic battlefield became the Pentomic Division. The Pentomic Division, officially known

Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lontzek, Thomas S.; Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2015-05-01

Perhaps the most `dangerous’ aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts. The likelihood of such large-scale singular events is expected to increase with global warming, but is fundamentally uncertain. A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model, based on the widely used deterministic DICE model. The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions, which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously), consistent with scientific understanding. Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by ~50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy are being underestimated, and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate.

Risk factors associated with disease progression and mortality in chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology: a cohort study in Medawachchiya, Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Senevirathna, Lalantha; Abeysekera, Tilak; Nanayakkara, Shanika; Chandrajith, Rohana; Ratnatunga, Neelakanthi; Harada, Kouji H; Hitomi, Toshiaki; Komiya, Toshiyuki; Muso, Eri; Koizumi, Akio

2012-05-01

The alarming rise in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology (CKDu) among the low socioeconomic farming community in the North Central Province of Sri Lanka has been recognized as an emerging public health issue in the country. This study sought to determine the possible factors associated with the progression and mortality of CKDu. The study utilized a single-center cohort registered in 2003 and followed up until 2009 in a regional clinic in the endemic region, and used a Cox proportional hazards model. We repeatedly found an association between disease progression and hypertension. Men were at higher risk of CKDu than women. A significant proportion of the patients in this cohort were underweight, which emphasized the need for future studies on the nutritional status of these patients. Compared with findings in western countries and other regions of Asia, we identified hypertension as a major risk factor for progression of CKDu in this cohort.

Research with Pregnant Women: New Insights on Legal Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Mastroianni, Anna C.; Henry, Leslie Meltzer; Robinson, David; Bailey, Theodore; Faden, Ruth R.; Little, Margaret O.; Lyerly, Anne Drapkin

2017-01-01

Although pregnant women rely on medical interventions to treat and prevent a wide variety of health conditions, they are frequently excluded or underrepresented in clinical research. The resulting dearth of pregnancy-specific evidence to guide clinical decisionmaking routinely exposes pregnant women, and their future offspring, to risk of uncertain harms for uncertain benefits. The two legal factors regularly cited as obstacles to such research are the federal regulatory scheme and fear of liability. This article reveals a far more nuanced and complex view of the legal context. First, legal professionals may—at any time from product conception to marketing—influence decisions about research with pregnant women. Second, factors not previously articulated in the literature may prompt legal professionals to slow or halt such research. They include: financial interests, regulatory ambiguity, obstacles to risk management, and site-specific laws unrelated to research. Any efforts to promote the ethical inclusion of pregnant women in research must acknowledge the role of legal decisionmakers and address their professional concerns. PMID:28543423

Role of Advance Care Planning in Proxy Decision Making Among Individuals With Dementia and Their Family Caregivers.

PubMed

Kwak, Jung; De Larwelle, Jessica A; Valuch, Katharine O'Connell; Kesler, Toni

2016-01-01

Health care proxies make important end-of-life decisions for individuals with dementia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to examine the role of advance care planning in proxy decision making for 141 individuals with cognitive impairment, Alzheimer's disease, or other types of dementia. Proxies who did not know the preferences of individuals with dementia for life support treatments reported greater understanding of their values. Proxies of individuals with dementia who did not want life support treatments anticipated receiving less support and were more uncertain in decision making. The greater knowledge proxies had about dementia trajectory, family support, and trust of physicians, the more informed, clearer, and less uncertain they were in decision making. In addition to advance care planning, multiple factors influence proxy decision making, which should be considered in developing interventions and future research to support informed decision making for individuals with dementia and their families. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Short-sighted confession decisions: the role of uncertain and delayed consequences.

PubMed

Yang, Yueran; Madon, Stephanie; Guyll, Max

2015-02-01

Suspects have a propensity to focus on short-term contingencies, giving disproportionate weight to the proximal consequences that are delivered by police during an interrogation, and too little consideration to the distal (and often more severe) consequences that may be levied by the judicial system if they are convicted. In this research, the authors examined whether the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of distal consequences contribute to this propensity. Using the repetitive question paradigm (Madon et al., 2012), participants (N = 209) were interviewed about 20 prior criminal and unethical behaviors and were required to admit or deny each one. Participants' denials and admissions were paired with both a proximal consequence and a distal consequence, respectively. Results indicated that the distal consequence had less impact on participants' admission decisions when it was uncertain and temporally remote. These results provide evidence that the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of future punishment are key factors that lead suspects to confess to crimes in exchange for short-term gains.

Cancer incidence and mortality among temporary maintenance workers in a refinery/petrochemical complex in Korea.

PubMed

Koh, Dong-Hee; Chung, Eun-Kyo; Jang, Jae-Kil; Lee, Hye-Eun; Ryu, Hyang-Woo; Yoo, Kye-Mook; Kim, Eun-A; Kim, Kyoo-Sang

2014-01-01

Petrochemical plant maintenance workers are exposed to various carcinogens such as benzene and metal fumes. In Korea, maintenance operations in petrochemical plants are typically performed by temporary employees hired as contract workers. The purpose of this retrospective study was to evaluate cancer risk in temporary maintenance workers in a refinery/petrochemical complex in Korea. Subjects consisted of 14 698 male workers registered in a regional petrochemical plant maintenance workers union during 2002-2007. Cancer mortality and incidence were identified by linking with the nationwide death and cancer registries during 2002-2007 and 2002-2005, respectively. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for each cancer. Increased SMR 3·61 (six cases, 95% CI: 1·32-7·87) and SIR 3·18 (five cases, 95% CI: 1·03-7·42) were observed in oral and pharyngeal cancers. Our findings may suggest a potential association between oral and pharyngeal cancers and temporary maintenance jobs in the petrochemical industry. Future studies should include a longer follow-up period and a quantitative exposure assessment.

Application of a Resilience Framework to Military Installations: A Methodology for Energy Resilience Business Case Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

Some technologies that were not included in the analysis (due to site-level evaluations), but could be added in the future, include: wind turbines ...number of entities involved in the procurement, operation, maintenance , testing, and fueling of the generators, detailed inventory and cost data is...difficult to obtain. The DPW is often understaffed, leading to uneven testing and maintenance of the equipment despite their best efforts. The

Application of a Resilience Framework to Military Installations: A Methodology for Energy Resilience Business Case Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-04

analysis (due to site-level evaluations), but could be added in the future, include: wind turbines (the installations we visited were not interested due...procurement, operation, maintenance , testing, and fueling of the generators, detailed inventory and cost data is difficult to obtain. The DPW is often...understaffed, leading to uneven testing and maintenance of the equipment despite their best efforts. The reliability of these generators is typically

Autonomy and automation for Space Station housekeeping and maintenance functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, P. R.

1983-01-01

The Space Station crew will be a critical resource for economical operation of science and commercial payloads. Core station housekeeping and maintenance functions should be provided in a manner that requires a minimum of crew interaction. This paper outlines a prospective functional architecture for allocation of autonomous and automated control of these functions and discusses implementation issues arising from safety of manned operations, integration test requirements, and evolution of future station capabilities.

Real options and asset valuation in competitive energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oduntan, Adekunle Richard

The focus of this work is to develop a robust valuation framework for physical power assets operating in competitive markets such as peaking or mid-merit thermal power plants and baseload power plants. The goal is to develop a modeling framework that can be adapted to different energy assets with different types of operating flexibilities and technical constraints and which can be employed for various purposes such as capital budgeting, business planning, risk management and strategic bidding planning among others. The valuation framework must also be able to capture the reality of power market rules and opportunities, as well as technical constraints of different assets. The modeling framework developed conceptualizes operating flexibilities of power assets as "switching options' whereby the asset operator decides at every decision point whether to switch from one operating mode to another mutually exclusive mode, within the limits of the equipment constraints of the asset. As a current decision to switch operating modes may affect future operating flexibilities of the asset and hence cash flows, a dynamic optimization framework is employed. The developed framework accounts for the uncertain nature of key value drivers by representing them with appropriate stochastic processes. Specifically, the framework developed conceptualizes the operation of a power asset as a multi-stage decision making problem where the operator has to make a decision at every stage to alter operating mode given currently available information about key value drivers. The problem is then solved dynamically by decomposing it into a series of two-stage sub-problems according to Bellman's optimality principle. The solution algorithm employed is the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. The developed valuation framework was adapted for a gas-fired thermal power plant, a peaking hydroelectric power plant and a baseload power plant. This work built on previously published real options valuation methodologies for gas-fired thermal power plants by factoring in uncertainty from gas supply/consumption imbalance which is usually faced by gas-fired power generators. This source of uncertainty arises because of mismatch between natural gas and electricity wholesale markets. Natural gas markets in North America operate on a day-ahead basis while power plants are dispatched in real time. Inability of a power generator to match its gas supply and consumption in real time, leading to unauthorized gas over-run or under-run, attracts penalty charges from the gas supplier to the extent that the generator can not manage the imbalance through other means. By considering an illustrative power plant operating in Ontario, we show effects of gas-imbalance on dispatch strategies on a daily cycling operation basis and the resulting impact on net revenue. Similarly, we employ the developed valuation framework to value a peaking hydroelectric power plant. This application also builds on previous real options valuation work for peaking hydroelectric power plants by considering their operations in a joint energy and ancillary services market. Specifically, the valuation model is developed to capture the value of a peaking power plant whose owner has the flexibility to participate in a joint operating reserve market and an energy market, which is currently the case in the Ontario wholesale power market. The model factors in water inflow uncertainty into the reservoir forebay of a hydroelectric facility and also considers uncertain energy and operating reserve prices. The switching options considered include (i) a joint energy and operating reserve bid (ii) an energy only bid and (iii) a do nothing (idle) strategy. Being an energy limited power plant, by doing nothing at a decision interval, the power asset operator is able to timeshift scarce water for use at a future period when market situations are expected to be better. Finally, the developed valuation framework was employed to optimize life-cycle management decisions of a baseload power plant, such as a nuclear power plant. Given uncertainty of long-term value drivers, including power prices, equipment performance and the relationship between current life cycle spending and future equipment degradation, optimization is carried out with the objective of minimizing overall life-cycle related costs. These life-cycle costs include (i) lost revenue during planned and unplanned outages, (ii) potential costs of future equipment degradation due to inadequate preventative maintenance, and (iii) the direct costs of implementing the life-cycle projects. The switching options in this context include the option to shutdown the power plant in order to execute a given preventative maintenance and inspection project and the option to keep the option "alive" by choosing to delay a planned life-cycle activity.

Role of nondestructive evaluation in civil aviation: historical development, current status, future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Hans J.

1995-07-01

Nondestructive evaluation has been used in civil aviation for 50 years. Until the arrival of the jet era it was mostly applied to component inspection. Since the damage-tolerant design philosophy was introduced by mandate for large transport aircraft, it has become an integral part of their design and maintenance. In the near future its role in the maintenance of aging small transport aircraft is expected to grow significantly. The most important factor contributing to the growing importance of NDE is the fact that the industry has been operating its aircraft much longer than originally envisioned, making it necessary to carefully monitor their structural condition to assure their airworthiness. NDE is helping making it economically feasible to operate aircraft for extended life times. Another major factor is the increased use of advanced materials, such as composites. Again, monitoring has to assure integrity. More recently, in an industry which has become highly competitive, NDE is becoming an important tool in the quest for reducing maintenance costs. The importance of NDE is expected to grow further.

Applying Psychological Theories to Promote Long-Term Maintenance of Health Behaviors

PubMed Central

Joseph, Rodney P.; Daniel, Casey L.; Thind, Herpreet; Benitez, Tanya J.; Pekmezi, Dori

2014-01-01

Behavioral health theory provides a framework for researchers to design, implement, and evaluate the effects of health promotion programs. However, limited research has examined theories used in interventions to promote long-term maintenance of health behaviors. The purpose of this review was to evaluate the available literature and identify prominent behavioral health theories used in intervention research to promote maintenance of health behaviors. We reviewed theories used in intervention research assessing long-term maintenance (≥ 6 months post-intervention) of physical activity, weight loss, and smoking cessation. Five prominent behavioral theories were referenced by the 34 studies included in the review: Self-Determination Theory, Theory of Planned Behavior, Social Cognitive Theory, Transtheoretical Model, and Social Ecological Model. Descriptions and examples of applications of these theories are provided. Implications for future research are discussed. PMID:28217036

The Science of Sustaining Health Behavior Change: The Health Maintenance Consortium

PubMed Central

Ory, Marcia G.; Smith, Matthew Lee; Mier, Nelda; Wernicke, Meghan M.

2013-01-01

Objective The Health Maintenance Consortium (HMC) is a multisite Grantee Consortium funded by the National Institutes of Health from 2004–2009. The goal of HMC is to enhance understanding of the long-term maintenance of behavior change, as well as effective strategies for achieving sustainable health promotion and disease prevention. Methods This introductory research synthesis prepared by the Resource Center gives context to this theme issue by providing an overview of the HMC and the articles in this journal. Results It explores the contributions to our conceptualization of behavior change processes and intervention strategies, the trajectory of effectiveness of behavioral and social interventions, and factors influencing the long-term maintenance of behavioral and social interventions. Conclusions Future directions for furthering the science of maintaining behavior change and reducing the gaps between research and practice are recommended. PMID:20604691

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

PubMed

Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

PubMed Central

Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions. PMID:29414978

Assessment of the Relationship Between Flexibility and Adaptive Capacity in Flood Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiFrancesco, K.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

Discussions around adapting water management systems to future changes often state the need to increase system flexibility. Intuitively, a flexible, easily modifiable system seems desirable when faced with a wide range of uncertain, but plausible future conditions. Yet, despite the frequent use of the terms flexibility, very little work has examined what exactly it means to have a flexible water management system, what makes one system more flexible than another, or the extent to which flexibility increases adaptive capacity. This study applies a methodology for assessing the inherent flexibility of the structural and non-structural components of flood management systems using original flexibility metrics in the categories of: slack, intensity, connectivity, adjustability, and coordination. We use these metrics to assess the flexibility of three sub-systems within the Sacramento Valley flood management system in California, USA under current system conditions as well as with proposed management actions in place. We then assess the range of hydrologic conditions under which each sub-system can meet flood risk targets in order to determine whether more flexible systems are also more robust and able to perform over a wider range of hydrologic conditions. In doing so, we identify flexible characteristics of flood management systems that enhance the ability of the system to preform over a wide range of conditions making them better suited to adapt to an uncertain hydrologic future. We find that the flexibility characteristics that increase the range of conditions under which the system can meet performance goals varies depending on whether the region is considered urban, rural, or a small community. In some cases, a decrease in certain flexibility characteristics is associated with an increase in robustness, indicating that more flexibility is not always desirable. Future work will assess the transferability of these results to other regions and systems.

Smart aircraft fastener evaluation (SAFE) system: a condition-based corrosion detection system for aging aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoess, Jeffrey N.; Seifert, Greg; Paul, Clare A.

1996-05-01

The smart aircraft fastener evaluation (SAFE) system is an advanced structural health monitoring effort to detect and characterize corrosion in hidden and inaccessible locations of aircraft structures. Hidden corrosion is the number one logistics problem for the U.S. Air Force, with an estimated maintenance cost of $700M per year in 1990 dollars. The SAFE system incorporates a solid-state electrochemical microsensor and smart sensor electronics in the body of a Hi-Lok aircraft fastener to process and autonomously report corrosion status to aircraft maintenance personnel. The long-term payoff for using SAFE technology will be in predictive maintenance for aging aircraft and rotorcraft systems, fugitive emissions applications such as control valves, chemical pipeline vessels, and industrial boilers. Predictive maintenance capability, service, and repair will replace the current practice of scheduled maintenance to substantially reduce operational costs. A summary of the SAFE concept, laboratory test results, and future field test plans is presented.

A case study of machinery maintenance protocols and procedures within the UK utilities sector.

PubMed

Edwards, David J; Love, Peter E D

2016-08-01

Failure to conduct periodic fixed-time-to (or scheduled) maintenance on off-highway plant and equipment represents a significant health and safety hazard and major litigation risk for utility contractors completing service excavation and reinstatement works on public highways. Mini-excavators are a ubiquitous mobile plant item used for such tasks and have recently been responsible for several major injuries and fatalities involving workers and members of the public in the United Kingdom (UK). The research utilises the method of triangulation to examine the maintenance practices of utility contractors in the UK. Findings from the research reveal that a combination of prevailing market forces and internal 'company' pressures have inadvertently removed knowledgeable and trained operators, site foremen and managerial supervisors from hands-on maintenance inspections. Rather, 'virtual' maintenance protocols and procedures are adopted by head office but rarely fully implemented on-site. The research concludes with pragmatic recommendations and direction for future research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Logistic Path from the International Space Station to the Moon and Beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, J. K.; Dempsey, C. A.; Butina, A. J., Sr.

2005-01-01

The period from the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia in February 2003 to resumption of Space Shuttle flights, planned for May 2005, has presented significant challenges to International Space Station (ISS) maintenance operations. Sharply curtailed upmass capability has forced NASA to revise its support strategy and to undertake maintenance activities that have significantly expanded the envelope of the ISS maintenance concept. This experience has enhanced confidence in the ability to continue to support ISS in the period following the permanent retirement of the Space Shuttle fleet in 2010. Even greater challenges face NASA with the implementation of the Vision for Space Exploration that will introduce extended missions to the Moon beginning in the period of 2015 - 2020 and ultimately see human missions to more distant destinations such as Mars. The experience and capabilities acquired through meeting the maintenance challenges of ISS will serve as the foundation for the maintenance strategy that will be employed in support of these future missions.

Robust, Optimal Water Infrastructure Planning Under Deep Uncertainty Using Metamodels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maier, H. R.; Beh, E. H. Y.; Zheng, F.; Dandy, G. C.; Kapelan, Z.

2015-12-01

Optimal long-term planning plays an important role in many water infrastructure problems. However, this task is complicated by deep uncertainty about future conditions, such as the impact of population dynamics and climate change. One way to deal with this uncertainty is by means of robustness, which aims to ensure that water infrastructure performs adequately under a range of plausible future conditions. However, as robustness calculations require computationally expensive system models to be run for a large number of scenarios, it is generally computationally intractable to include robustness as an objective in the development of optimal long-term infrastructure plans. In order to overcome this shortcoming, an approach is developed that uses metamodels instead of computationally expensive simulation models in robustness calculations. The approach is demonstrated for the optimal sequencing of water supply augmentation options for the southern portion of the water supply for Adelaide, South Australia. A 100-year planning horizon is subdivided into ten equal decision stages for the purpose of sequencing various water supply augmentation options, including desalination, stormwater harvesting and household rainwater tanks. The objectives include the minimization of average present value of supply augmentation costs, the minimization of average present value of greenhouse gas emissions and the maximization of supply robustness. The uncertain variables are rainfall, per capita water consumption and population. Decision variables are the implementation stages of the different water supply augmentation options. Artificial neural networks are used as metamodels to enable all objectives to be calculated in a computationally efficient manner at each of the decision stages. The results illustrate the importance of identifying optimal staged solutions to ensure robustness and sustainability of water supply into an uncertain long-term future.

Emission Data For Climate-Chemistry Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S. J.

2012-12-01

Data on anthropogenic and natural emissions of reactive species are a critical input for studies of atmospheric chemistry and climate. The availability and characteristics of anthropogenic emissions data that can be used for such studies are reviewed and pathways for future work discuss Global and regional datasets for historical and future emissions are available, but their characteristics and applicability for specific studies differ. For the first time, a coordinated set of historical emissions (Lamarque et al 2010) and the future projections (van Vuurren et al. 2011) have been developed for use in the CMIP5 and ACCMIP long-term simulation comparison projects. These data have decadal resolution and were designed for long-term, global simulations. These data, however, lack finer-scale spatial and temporal detail that might be needed for some studies. Robust and timely updates of emissions data is generally lacking, although recent updates will be presented. While historical emission data is often treated as known, emissions are uncertain, even though this uncertainty is rarely quantified. Uncertainty varies by species and location. Inverse modeling is starting to indicate where emission data may be uncertain, which opens the way to improving these data overall. Further interaction between the chemistry modeling and inventory development communities are needed. Future projections are intrinsically uncertain, and while institutions and processes are in place to develop and review long-term century-scale scenarios, a need has remained for a wider range in shorter-term (e.g., several decade) projections. Emissions and scenario development communities have been working to fill this need. Communication across disciplines of the assumptions embedded in emissions projections remains a challenge. Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool needed for studying chemistry-climate interactions. Simpler models, however, are also needed in order to examine interactions between different physical systems and also between the physical and human systems. Statistical models of system responses are particularly needed both to parameterize interactions in models that cannot simulate particular processes directly, and also to represent uncertainty. Coordinated model experiments are necessary to provide the information needed to develop these representations (i.e. Wild et al 2011). Lamarque, J. F, et al. (2010) Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10 pp. 7017-7039. doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010 Van Vuuren, D, JA Edmonds, M Kainuma, K Riahi, AM Thomson, KA Hibbard, G Hurtt, T Kram, V Krey, JF Lamarque, matsui, M Meinhausen, N Nakicenovic, SJ Smith, and SK Rose. 2011. "The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview." Climatic Change 109 (1-2) 5-31. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z. Wild, O., et al. (2012) Modelling future changes in surface ozone: A parameterized approach. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2037-2054, doi:10.5194/acp-12-2037-2012.

Hydrological Modeling of Storm Water Drainage System due to Frequent and Intense Precipitation of Dhaka city using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, S., Jr.

2015-12-01

Rainfall induced flooding during rainy season is a regular phenomenon in Dhaka City. Almost every year a significant part of the city suffers badly with drainage congestion. There are some highly dense areas with lower ground elevation which submerge under water even with an intense precipitation of few hours. The higher areas also suffer with the drainage problem due to inadequate maintenance of the system and encroachment or illegal filling up of the drainage canals and lakes. Most part of the city suffered from long term urban flooding during historical extreme rainfall events in September 2004, 2007 and July 2009. The situation is likely to worsen in the future due to Climate Change, which may lead to more frequent and intense precipitation. To assess the major and minor drainage systems and elements of the urban basins using the hydrodynamic modelling and, through this, identifying the flooding events and areas, taking into account the current situation and future flood or drainage scenarios. Stormwater modeling has a major role in preventing issues such as flash floods and urban water-quality problems. Stormwater models of a lowered spatial resolution would thus appear valuable if only their ability to provide realistic results could be proved. The present scenario of urban morphology of Dhaka city and existing drainage system is complex for hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling. Furthermore limitations of background data and uncertain future urban scenarios may confine the potential outputs of a model. Although several studies were carried out including modeling for drainage master planning, a detail model for whole DAP (Detaile Area Plan) of Dhaka city area is not available. The model developed under this study is covering the existing drainage system in the study area as well as natural flows in the fringe area. A good number of models are available for hydrological and hydraulic analysis of urban areas. These are MIKE 11, MOUSE, HEC-RAS, HEC HMS and EPA SWMM. EPA-SWMM is used for the study area which is mostly developed and consists pipe networks, open channels and water bodies. This study proposes a methodology for rapid catchment delineation and stormwater management model (SWMM) set-up in a large urban area with model calibration and validation.

75 FR 77588 - Foreign Futures and Options Contracts on a Non-Narrow-Based Security Index; Commission...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-13

...; information and data relating to the index, including the design, computation and maintenance thereof. In... extension is necessary to address complex or novel issues. The information that a foreign board of trade... 45 days if the foreign security index futures contract raises novel or complex issues that require...

RT 6 - Software Intensive Systems Data Quality and Estimation Research in Support of Future Defense Cost Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-13

Brownfield Development 6.6.6 Agile and Kanban Development 6.6.7 Putting It All Together at the Large-Project or Enterprise Level 6.7 References 7...Ultrahigh software system assurance; Legacy maintenance and brownfield development; and Agile and kanban development. This chapter summarizes each...components or may need to be developed for special systems. Legacy Maintenance and Brownfield Development Fewer and fewer software-intensive systems have

Multiple Award, Multiple Order Contracts - The Future of Navy Surface Maintenance Procurement

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

example, in October 2004, Australia’s North West Shelf Shipping signed a long-term maintenance and upgrade contract for its fleet of liquefied natural ...fuel tank during shipyard corrosion control activities (e.g., grinding and/or sanding) and there was already a work item in the contract for crack...is not related to items in the original contract. An example of new work is adding fuel tank repair to a combat systems equipment-specific

National differences in environmental concern and performance are predicted by country age.

PubMed

Hershfield, Hal E; Bang, H Min; Weber, Elke U

2014-01-01

There are obvious economic predictors of ability and willingness to invest in environmental sustainability. Yet, given that environmental decisions represent trade-offs between present sacrifices and uncertain future benefits, psychological factors may also play a role in country-level environmental behavior. Gott's principle suggests that citizens may use perceptions of their country's age to predict its future continuation, with longer pasts predicting longer futures. Using country- and individual-level analyses, we examined whether longer perceived pasts result in longer perceived futures, which in turn motivate concern for continued environmental quality. Study 1 found that older countries scored higher on an environmental performance index, even when the analysis controlled for country-level differences in gross domestic product and governance. Study 2 showed that when the United States was framed as an old country (vs. a young one), participants were willing to donate more money to an environmental organization. The findings suggest that framing a country as a long-standing entity may effectively prompt proenvironmental behavior.

Climate and human intervention effects on future fire activity and consequences for air pollution across the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Val Martin, M.; Pierce, J. R.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Tilmes, S.; Vitt, F.

2016-12-01

Emissions of aerosols and gases from fires have been shown to adversely affect air quality across the world. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and anthropogenic activities. Current fire projections for the 21st century seem very uncertain, ranging from increasing to declining depending on the climate, land cover change and population growth scenarios used. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences on air quality, with focus on PM2.5 and surface O3 over regions vulnerable to fire. We use the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a process-based fire model to simulate emissions from agriculture, peatland, deforestation and landscape fires for present-day and throughout the current century. We consider two future Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios combined with population density changes predicted from Shared Socio-economic Pathways to project climate and demographic effects on fire activity and further consequences for future air quality.

Megacities and the United States Army: Preparing for a Complex and Uncertain Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME( S ) AND ADDRESS(ES) Office of the Chief of Staff of the Army,Strategic...problems found in megacities (explosive growth rates, vast and growing income disparity and a security envi- ronment that is increasingly attractive to the ...that growth oc- curring almost entirely in developing world. 5 As re- sources become constrained, illicit networks could po- tentially fill the gap left

Preparing Capable Decision Makers for an Uncertain Future within Underdeveloped, Degraded and Denied Operational Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

later in life’ (post primary education ) development effort, but also one which should – nea must – be initiated quite early. This might actually be...and thinker, Thomas Hobbes. (Interestingly, Hobbes apparently was the source for the tiger’s name within the comic strip ‘Calvin and Hobbes’; while...BROAD-BASED EDUCATION – T. HOBBES’ PHILOSOPHIES SCIENCE, that is, Kno wledg e of Con se- qu en ces ; which is called also PHILO- SOPHY Con seq uences

Price, carbon and generation profiles: how partisan differences make the future of climate change uncertain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sautter, John A.; Sautter, Christopher A.

America is very much a divided nation when it comes to politics. That polarization is reflected in the environmental and energy realities currently at play in many states, creating a remarkable divide between more conservative Red States and more liberal Blue States when it comes to the amount of CO{sub 2} emitted into the atmosphere and the price of electricity. These differences pose an enormous obstacle in passing climate change legislation. (author)

[Interventional radiology: current problems and new directions].

PubMed

Santos Martín, E; Crespo Vallejo, E

2014-01-01

In recent years, vascular and interventional radiology has become one of the fastest growing diagnostic and therapeutic specialties. This growth has been based on a fundamental concept: performing minimally invasive procedures under imaging guidance. This attractive combination has led to the interest of professionals from other clinical specialties outside radiology in performing this type of intervention. The future of vascular and interventional radiology, although uncertain, must be linked to clinical practice and multidisciplinary teamwork. Copyright © 2011 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Analysing uncertainties of supply and demand in the future use of hydrogen as an energy vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenel, U. R.; Davies, D. G. S.; Moore, M. A.

An analytical technique (Analysis with Uncertain Qualities), developed at Fulmer, is being used to examine the sensitivity of the outcome to uncertainties in input quantities in order to highlight which input quantities critically affect the potential role of hydrogen. The work presented here includes an outline of the model and the analysis technique, along with basic considerations of the input quantities to the model (demand, supply and constraints). Some examples are given of probabilistic estimates of input quantities.

The Application of the Human Engineering Modeling and Performance Laboratory for Space Vehicle Ground Processing Tasks at Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodbury, Sarah K.

2008-01-01

The introduction of United Space Alliance's Human Engineering Modeling and Performance Laboratory began in early 2007 in an attempt to address the problematic workspace design issues that the Space Shuttle has imposed on technicians performing maintenance and inspection operations. The Space Shuttle was not expected to require the extensive maintenance it undergoes between flights. As a result, extensive, costly resources have been expended on workarounds and modifications to accommodate ground processing personnel. Consideration of basic human factors principles for design of maintenance is essential during the design phase of future space vehicles, facilities, and equipment. Simulation will be needed to test and validate designs before implementation.

Understanding the drivers of the future water gap in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Immerzeel, W. W.; Wijngaard, R. R.; Biemans, H.; Lutz, A. F.

2017-12-01

The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river systems provide water resources for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors sustaining the lives of about 700 million people. The region is globally a hotspot for climate change as the headwaters of these rivers are fed by melt water from snow and glaciers, both strongly influenced by temperature change. In addition, the hydrology in the region is determined by the monsoon and its future dynamics as a results of climate change remains very uncertain. Simultaneously, the population is projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, which in combination with strong economic developments, will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. In this study we attempt to quantify the future water gap in the IGB and attribute this water gap to climate change and socio-economic growth. For the upstream mountainous parts of the basins we use the SPHY model, which is calibrated based on historical streamflow and glacier mass balance data and forced by the latest CMIP5 future climate model data for RCP4.5 and 8.5. Output of this model feeds into the downstream LPJmL model, which allows assessment of downstream climate change impacts and projected changes in water demand as a result of socio-economic developments. The LPJmL model is run for different combinations of RCPs and Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs). Our results show that for the IGB as a whole climate change will increase water availability in the coming decades, due to an overall, albeit uncertain, increase in monsoon precipitation in combination with a sustained melt water supply from the upstream parts of the basins. However, irrespective of the SSP and RCP, the water demand as a result of socio-economic growth is expected to increase extremely fast in the near future and this is likely to be the main adaptation challenge for the IGB as far as water shortages are concerned. Our results also show that regional and temporal variation in the water gap is large and that basin specific adaptation measures are required that take into account both socio-economic developments as well as climate change.

Prognostics and Health Management of Wind Turbines -- Current Status and Future Opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheng, Shuangwen

The global wind industry has seen tremendous growth during the past two decades. However, the industry is challenged by premature component failures, which lead to increased turbine downtime and subsequently, cost of energy for wind power. To mitigate the impacts from these failures, the wind industry has been exploring various areas for improvements ranging from product design, new materials or lubricants, to operation and maintenance (O&M) practices. Condition-based maintenance or prognostics and health management (PHM) has been explored as one enabling technology for improving O&M practices. This chapter provides a brief overview of wind turbine PHM with a focus onmore » operational data mining and condition monitoring of drivetrains. Some future research and development opportunities in wind turbine PHM are also briefly discussed.« less

Late Cenozoic onset of the latitudinal diversity gradient of North American mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcot, Jonathan D.; Fox, David L.; Niebuhr, Spencer R.

2016-06-01

The decline of species richness from equator to pole, or latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), is nearly universal among clades of living organisms, yet whether it was such a pervasive pattern in the geologic past remains uncertain. Here, we calculate the strength of the LDG for terrestrial mammals in North America over the past 65 My, using 27,903 fossil occurrences of Cenozoic terrestrial mammals from western North America downloaded from the Paleobiology Database. Accounting for temporal and spatial variation in sampling, the LDG was substantially weaker than it is today for most of the Cenozoic and the robust modern LDG of North American mammals evolved only over the last 4 My. The strength of the LDG correlates negatively with global temperature, suggesting a role of global climate patterns in the establishment and maintenance of the LDG for North American mammals.

Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique

PubMed Central

Hayford, Sarah R.; Agadjanian, Victor

2012-01-01

In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of “don’t know” or “up to God” as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing. Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortality. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to economic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less strongly related. PMID:26430294

Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One optionmore » includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.« less

Deliberations and evaluations of approaches, endpoints and paradigms for determining zinc dietary recommendations.

PubMed

Sandstead, H H; Smith, J C

1996-09-01

The work group considered past and future Recommended Dietary Allowances (RDAs) for zinc. Past RDAs were based in large part on metabolic balance data. Balance measurements are technically difficult and it is uncertain that they reflect true requirements. Therefore other methods should be used to determine requirements and the RDA. The best approach at this time is the factorial method. In the future, data from measurements of zinc kinetics, in relation to diet and physiological functions will provide useful insights. Future RDAs should provide for at least three levels of bioavailability: low, moderate and high. Whether adjustments should be made in the RDA to account for life style factors is a matter of philosophy. The importance of the differences (gaps) between the RDA and usual intakes of zinc by persons who are apparently in good health, or between the RDA and other dietary guidelines, is an issue for consideration.

Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique.

PubMed

Hayford, Sarah R; Agadjanian, Victor

In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of "don't know" or "up to God" as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing. Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortality. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to economic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less strongly related.

Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries.

PubMed

Hughes, Terry P; Carpenter, Stephen; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Walker, Brian

2013-07-01

Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors That Will Determine Future Utilization Trends in Diagnostic Imaging.

PubMed

Levin, David C; Rao, Vijay M

2016-08-01

Radiologists are facing uncertain times, and in this kind of environment, strategic planning is important but difficult. In particular, it is hard to know whether future imaging volume will increase, decrease, or stay approximately the same. In this article, the authors discuss a variety of factors that will influence imaging use in the coming years. Some factors will tend to increase imaging use, whereas others will tend to curtail it. Some of these factors will affect individual groups differently, depending on their locations and the circumstances of their practices. Radiologists would be well advised to become aware of and consider these factors as they go about their planning processes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Planning Using Robust Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Addressing climate change in long-term natural resource planning is difficult because future management conditions are deeply uncertain and the range of possible adaptation options are so extensive. These conditions pose challenges to standard optimization decision-support techniques. This talk will describe a methodology called Robust Decisionmaking (RDM) that can complement more traditional analytic approaches by utilizing screening-level water management models to evaluate large numbers of strategies against a wide range of plausible future scenarios. The presentation will describe a recent application of the methodology to evaluate climate adaptation strategies for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency in Southern California. This project found that RDM can provide a useful way for addressing climate change uncertainty and identify robust adaptation strategies.

Using the intervention mapping protocol to develop a maintenance programme for the SLIMMER diabetes prevention intervention.

PubMed

Elsman, Ellen B M; Leerlooijer, Joanne N; Ter Beek, Josien; Duijzer, Geerke; Jansen, Sophia C; Hiddink, Gerrit J; Feskens, Edith J M; Haveman-Nies, Annemien

2014-10-27

Although lifestyle interventions have shown to be effective in reducing the risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus, maintenance of achieved results is difficult, as participants often experience relapse after the intervention has ended. This paper describes the systematic development of a maintenance programme for the extensive SLIMMER intervention, an existing diabetes prevention intervention for high-risk individuals, implemented in a real-life setting in the Netherlands. The maintenance programme was developed using the Intervention Mapping protocol. Programme development was informed by a literature study supplemented by various focus group discussions and feedback from implementers of the extensive SLIMMER intervention. The maintenance programme was designed to sustain a healthy diet and physical activity pattern by targeting knowledge, attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control of the SLIMMER participants. Practical applications were clustered into nine programme components, including sports clinics at local sports clubs, a concluding meeting with the physiotherapist and dietician, and a return session with the physiotherapist, dietician and physical activity group. Manuals were developed for the implementers and included a detailed time table and step-by-step instructions on how to implement the maintenance programme. The Intervention Mapping protocol provided a useful framework to systematically plan a maintenance programme for the extensive SLIMMER intervention. The study showed that planning a maintenance programme can build on existing implementation structures of the extensive programme. Future research is needed to determine to what extent the maintenance programme contributes to sustained effects in participants of lifestyle interventions.

Strategies for the Management of Built Heritage Linked to Maintenance and Monitoring. Case Study of the San Roque Neighborhood, Cuenca, Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achig-Balarezo, M. C.; Vázquez, L.; Barsallo, M. G.; Briones, J. C.; Amaya, J.

2017-10-01

The rehabilitation of heritage sites, as well as the implementation of monitoring and control strategies is fundamental for its conservation. In the case of Cuenca, a World Heritage City, a maintenance campaign in the traditional neighborhood of San Roque was carried out in 2014. The objective was to undertake maintenance actions on roofs and façades as well as on elements at risk. The campaign process was developed keeping in mind the cycle or phases of preventive conservation: anamnesis, diagnosis, therapy and control (ICOMOS, 2003). At the end of the maintenance campaign an impact assessment was undertaken and monitoring tools were handed out to the community in order to strengthen the citizen participation in the preservation of built heritage. The experience of the maintenance campaign unveiled a series of lessons that have been evaluated in the present investigation, being the main objective the strengthening of the processes of governance and documentation through the formulation of strategies inherent to the maintenance of heritage buildings. In this process it is shown that the participation of citizens is a strategic factor for the sustainable development of maintenance campaigns, which allow for the preservation of historical sites for future generations.

Melioration as rational choice: sequential decision making in uncertain environments.

PubMed

Sims, Chris R; Neth, Hansjörg; Jacobs, Robert A; Gray, Wayne D

2013-01-01

Melioration-defined as choosing a lesser, local gain over a greater longer term gain-is a behavioral tendency that people and pigeons share. As such, the empirical occurrence of meliorating behavior has frequently been interpreted as evidence that the mechanisms of human choice violate the norms of economic rationality. In some environments, the relationship between actions and outcomes is known. In this case, the rationality of choice behavior can be evaluated in terms of how successfully it maximizes utility given knowledge of the environmental contingencies. In most complex environments, however, the relationship between actions and future outcomes is uncertain and must be learned from experience. When the difficulty of this learning challenge is taken into account, it is not evident that melioration represents suboptimal choice behavior. In the present article, we examine human performance in a sequential decision-making experiment that is known to induce meliorating behavior. In keeping with previous results using this paradigm, we find that the majority of participants in the experiment fail to adopt the optimal decision strategy and instead demonstrate a significant bias toward melioration. To explore the origins of this behavior, we develop a rational analysis (Anderson, 1990) of the learning problem facing individuals in uncertain decision environments. Our analysis demonstrates that an unbiased learner would adopt melioration as the optimal response strategy for maximizing long-term gain. We suggest that many documented cases of melioration can be reinterpreted not as irrational choice but rather as globally optimal choice under uncertainty.

Weight Suppression Predicts Maintenance and Onset of Bulimic Syndromes at 10-Year Follow-up

PubMed Central

Keel, Pamela K.; Heatherton, Todd F.

2010-01-01

Conflicting results have emerged regarding the prognostic significance of weight suppression for maintenance of bulimic symptoms. This study examined whether the magnitude of weight suppression would predict bulimic syndrome maintenance and onset in college-based samples of men (n=369) and women (n=968) at 10-year follow-up. Data come from a longitudinal study of body weight and disordered eating with high retention (80%). Among those with a bulimic syndrome at baseline, greater weight suppression significantly predicted maintenance of the syndrome, and, among those without a bulimic syndrome at baseline, greater weight suppression predicted onset of a bulimic syndrome at 10-year follow-up in multivariate models that included baseline body mass index, diet frequency, and weight perception. Future research should address mechanisms that could account for the effects of weight suppression over a long duration of follow-up. PMID:20455599

Protein kinase M ζ and the maintenance of long-term memory.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Zong, Wei; Zhang, Lei; Ma, Yuanye; Wang, Jianhong

2016-10-01

Although various molecules have been found to mediate the processes of memory acquisition and consolidation, the molecular mechanism to maintain memory still remains elusive. In recent years, a molecular pathway focusing on protein kinase Mζ (PKMζ) has become of interest to researchers because of its potential role in long-term memory maintenance. PKMζ is an isoform of protein kinase C (PKC) and has a related structure that influences its function in maintaining memory. Considerable evidence has been gathered on PKMζ activity, including loss of function studies using PKMζ inhibitors, such as PKMζ inhibitory peptide (ZIP), suggesting PKMζ plays an important role in long-term memory maintenance. This review provides an overview of the role of PKMζ in long-term memory and outlines the molecular structure of PKMζ, the molecular mechanism of PKMζ in long-term memory maintenance and future directions of PKMζ research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cancer incidence and mortality among temporary maintenance workers in a refinery/petrochemical complex in Korea

PubMed Central

Koh, Dong-Hee; Chung, Eun-Kyo; Jang, Jae-Kil; Lee, Hye-Eun; Ryu, Hyang-Woo; Yoo, Kye-Mook; Kim, Eun-A; Kim, Kyoo-Sang

2014-01-01

Background: Petrochemical plant maintenance workers are exposed to various carcinogens such as benzene and metal fumes. In Korea, maintenance operations in petrochemical plants are typically performed by temporary employees hired as contract workers. Objectives: The purpose of this retrospective study was to evaluate cancer risk in temporary maintenance workers in a refinery/petrochemical complex in Korea. Methods: Subjects consisted of 14 698 male workers registered in a regional petrochemical plant maintenance workers union during 2002–2007. Cancer mortality and incidence were identified by linking with the nationwide death and cancer registries during 2002–2007 and 2002–2005, respectively. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for each cancer. Results: Increased SMR 3.61 (six cases, 95% CI: 1.32–7.87) and SIR 3.18 (five cases, 95% CI: 1.03–7.42) were observed in oral and pharyngeal cancers. Conclusion: Our findings may suggest a potential association between oral and pharyngeal cancers and temporary maintenance jobs in the petrochemical industry. Future studies should include a longer follow-up period and a quantitative exposure assessment. PMID:24999849

Identification of failure type in corroded pipelines: a bayesian probabilistic approach.

PubMed

Breton, T; Sanchez-Gheno, J C; Alamilla, J L; Alvarez-Ramirez, J

2010-07-15

Spillover of hazardous materials from transport pipelines can lead to catastrophic events with serious and dangerous environmental impact, potential fire events and human fatalities. The problem is more serious for large pipelines when the construction material is under environmental corrosion conditions, as in the petroleum and gas industries. In this way, predictive models can provide a suitable framework for risk evaluation, maintenance policies and substitution procedure design that should be oriented to reduce increased hazards. This work proposes a bayesian probabilistic approach to identify and predict the type of failure (leakage or rupture) for steel pipelines under realistic corroding conditions. In the first step of the modeling process, the mechanical performance of the pipe is considered for establishing conditions under which either leakage or rupture failure can occur. In the second step, experimental burst tests are used to introduce a mean probabilistic boundary defining a region where the type of failure is uncertain. In the boundary vicinity, the failure discrimination is carried out with a probabilistic model where the events are considered as random variables. In turn, the model parameters are estimated with available experimental data and contrasted with a real catastrophic event, showing good discrimination capacity. The results are discussed in terms of policies oriented to inspection and maintenance of large-size pipelines in the oil and gas industry. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Altered gut and adipose tissue hormones in overweight and obese individuals: cause or consequence?

PubMed Central

Lean, M E J; Malkova, D

2016-01-01

The aim of this article is to review the research into the main peripheral appetite signals altered in human obesity, together with their modifications after body weight loss with diet and exercise and after bariatric surgery, which may be relevant to strategies for obesity treatment. Body weight homeostasis involves the gut–brain axis, a complex and highly coordinated system of peripheral appetite hormones and centrally mediated neuronal regulation. The list of peripheral anorexigenic and orexigenic physiological factors in both animals and humans is intimidating and expanding, but anorexigenic glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), cholecystokinin (CCK), peptide YY (PYY) and orexigenic ghrelin from the gastrointestinal tract, pancreatic polypeptide (PP) from the pancreas and anorexigenic leptin from adiposites remain the most widely studied hormones. Homeostatic control of food intake occurs in humans, although its relative importance for eating behaviour is uncertain, compared with social and environmental influences. There are perturbations in the gut–brain axis in obese compared with lean individuals, as well as in weight-reduced obese individuals. Fasting and postprandial levels of gut hormones change when obese individuals lose weight, either with surgical or with dietary and/or exercise interventions. Diet-induced weight loss results in long-term changes in appetite gut hormones, postulated to favour increased appetite and weight regain while exercise programmes modify responses in a direction expected to enhance satiety and permit weight loss and/or maintenance. Sustained weight loss achieved by bariatric surgery may in part be mediated via favourable changes to gut hormones. Future work will be necessary to fully elucidate the role of each element of the axis, and whether modifying these signals can reduce the risk of obesity. PMID:26499438

Altered gut and adipose tissue hormones in overweight and obese individuals: cause or consequence?

PubMed

Lean, M E J; Malkova, D

2016-04-01

The aim of this article is to review the research into the main peripheral appetite signals altered in human obesity, together with their modifications after body weight loss with diet and exercise and after bariatric surgery, which may be relevant to strategies for obesity treatment. Body weight homeostasis involves the gut-brain axis, a complex and highly coordinated system of peripheral appetite hormones and centrally mediated neuronal regulation. The list of peripheral anorexigenic and orexigenic physiological factors in both animals and humans is intimidating and expanding, but anorexigenic glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), cholecystokinin (CCK), peptide YY (PYY) and orexigenic ghrelin from the gastrointestinal tract, pancreatic polypeptide (PP) from the pancreas and anorexigenic leptin from adiposites remain the most widely studied hormones. Homeostatic control of food intake occurs in humans, although its relative importance for eating behaviour is uncertain, compared with social and environmental influences. There are perturbations in the gut-brain axis in obese compared with lean individuals, as well as in weight-reduced obese individuals. Fasting and postprandial levels of gut hormones change when obese individuals lose weight, either with surgical or with dietary and/or exercise interventions. Diet-induced weight loss results in long-term changes in appetite gut hormones, postulated to favour increased appetite and weight regain while exercise programmes modify responses in a direction expected to enhance satiety and permit weight loss and/or maintenance. Sustained weight loss achieved by bariatric surgery may in part be mediated via favourable changes to gut hormones. Future work will be necessary to fully elucidate the role of each element of the axis, and whether modifying these signals can reduce the risk of obesity.

Should heart failure be regarded as a terminal illness requiring palliative care? A study of heart failure patients', carers' and clinicians' understanding of heart failure prognosis and its management.

PubMed

Stocker, Rachel; Close, Helen; Hancock, Helen; Hungin, A Pali S

2017-12-01

Communication and planning for heart failure (HF) care near the end of life is known to be complex. Little is known about how the patient experience of palliative assessment and communication needs change over time, and how this might inform management. Our aim was to explore experiences of giving or receiving a prognosis and advanced palliative care planning (ACP) for those with HF. We carried out a longitudinal grounded theory study, employing in-depth interviews with 14 clinicians (primary and secondary care) and observations of clinic and home appointments, followed by a series of interviews with 13 patients with HF and 9 carers. Overall, the majority of participants rejected notions of HF as a terminal illness in favour of a focus on day-to-day management and maintenance, despite obvious deterioration in disease stage and needs over time. Clinicians revealed frustration about the uncertain nature of HF prognosis, leading to difficulties in planning. Others highlighted the need to deliver problem-based, individualised care but felt constrained sometimes by the lack of multidisciplinary ACP. Patients reported an absence of prognostic discussions with clinicians. This is the first study exploring the experiences of prognostic communication at all stages of HF. Findings raise questions regarding the pragmatic utility of the concept of HF as a terminal illness and have implications for future HF care pathway development. Findings support the incorporation of a problem-based approach to management, which recognises the importance of everyday functioning for patients and carers as well as the opportunity for ACP. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Lorcaserin: an investigational serotonin 2C agonist for weight loss.

PubMed

Hurren, Kathryn M; Berlie, Helen D

2011-11-01

The pharmacology, pharmacokinetics, and adverse effects of the selective serotonin (5-HT) agonist lorcaserin are reviewed, with an emphasis on efficacy and safety data from Phase III clinical trials. Lorcaserin is highly selective for a subtype of 5-HT receptors important in appetite regulation, with low affinity for other 5-HT-receptor subtypes whose activation is thought to underlie serious cardiovascular adverse effects; such effects have been seen with nonselective serotonergic agents for weight loss (e.g., fenfluramine). In two Phase III trials of lorcaserin, the cumulative proportion of patients who achieved weight loss of ≥5% over 12 months was about 47% with lorcaserin use versus 20-25% among placebo users (p < 0.0001 for both trials). Lorcaserin was generally well tolerated in the clinical trials to date; nausea and vomiting, headache, and dizziness were the most commonly reported adverse effects. In two of the three Phase III trials to date, lorcaserin use was not found to increase the risk of cardiac valvulopathy; however, in the other Phase III trial, which focused on patients with diabetes, lorcaserin use was associated with an increased rate of new valvulopathy. In a carcinogenicity evaluation involving laboratory rats, lorcaserin was linked to the development of various malignancies, a finding with uncertain implications for its potential future use in humans. Lorcaserin, a 5-HT(2C) agonist, has demonstrated efficacy in patients who are obese or are overweight with associated comorbidities. Phase III trials have found that more than 35% of patients lost greater than 5% of their baseline weight. The maker of lorcaserin has indicated it will continue to seek U.S. marketing approval of the drug for the indications of long-term weight loss and weight-loss maintenance in specific patient populations.

MTRETR MAINTENANCE SHOP, TRA653. FLOOR PLAN FOR FIRST FLOOR: MACHINE ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

MTR-ETR MAINTENANCE SHOP, TRA-653. FLOOR PLAN FOR FIRST FLOOR: MACHINE SHOP, ELECTRICAL AND INSTRUMENT SHOP, TOOL CRIB, ELECTRONIC SHOP, LOCKER ROOM, SPECIAL TEMPERATURE CONTROLLED ROOM, AND OFFICES. "NEW" ON DRAWING REFERS TO REVISION OF 11/1956 DRAWING ON WHICH AREAS WERE DESIGNATED AS "FUTURE." HUMMEL HUMMEL & JONES 810-MTR-ETR-653-A-7, 5/1957. INL INDEX NO. 532-0653-00-381-101839, REV. 2. - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Reactor Area, Materials & Engineering Test Reactors, Scoville, Butte County, ID

Performance considerations in long-term spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akins, F. R.

1979-01-01

Maintenance of skilled performance during extended space flight is of critical importance to both the health and safety of crew members and to the overall success of mission goals. An examination of long term effects and performance requirements is therefore a factor of immense importance to the planning of future missions. Factors that were investigated include: definition of performance categories to be investigated; methods for assessing and predicting performance levels; in-flight factors which can affect performance; and factors pertinent to the maintenance of skilled performance.

Expert system applications for army vehicle diagnostics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halle, R.F.

1987-01-01

Bulky manuals, limited training procedures, and complex Automatic Test Equipment are but a few of the problems a mechanic must face when trying to repair many of the military's new and highly complex vehicle systems. Recent technological advances in Expert Systms has given the mechanic the potential to solve many of these problems and to actually enhance his maintenance proficiency. This paper describes both the history of and the future potential of the Expert System and how it could impact on the present military maintenance system.

Logistics Operations Management Center: Maintenance Support Baseline (LOMC-MSB)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurrus, R.; Stump, F.

1995-01-01

The Logistics Operations Management Center Maintenance Support Baseline is defined. A historical record of systems, applied to and deleted from, designs in support of future management and/or technical analysis is provided. All Flight elements, Ground Support Equipment, Facility Systems and Equipment and Test Support Equipment for which LOMC has responsibilities at Kennedy Space Center and other locations are listed. International Space Station Alpha Program documentation is supplemented. The responsibility of the Space Station Launch Site Support Office is established.

Multiple Award, Multiple Order Contracts - The Future of Navy Surface Maintenance Procurement

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-27

signed a long-term maintenance and upgrade contract for its fleet of liquefied natural gas ships with Singapore’s SembCorp Marine. The five-year contract...He is a qualified Surface Warfare Supply Corps Officer. LT Duncan met his wife, Lauren, in Athens, GA . They reside in Monterey, CA, with their...discovered inside a ship’s fuel tank during shipyard corrosion control activities (e.g., grinding and/or sanding) and there was already a work item in

'You started something … then I continued by myself': a qualitative study of physical activity maintenance.

PubMed

Wahlich, Charlotte; Beighton, Carole; Victor, Christina; Normansell, Rebecca; Cook, Derek; Kerry, Sally; Iliffe, Steve; Ussher, Michael; Whincup, Peter; Fox-Rushby, Julia; Limb, Elizabeth; Furness, Cheryl; Harris, Tess

2017-11-01

Most mid-life and older adults are not achieving recommended physical activity (PA) targets and effective interventions are needed to increase and maintain PA long-term for health benefits. The Pedometer And Consultation Evaluation (PACE-UP) trial, a three-armed primary care pedometer-based walking intervention in those aged 45-75 years, demonstrated increased PA levels at 12 months. A three-year follow-up was conducted to evaluate long-term PA maintenance, including a qualitative component. Aim To examine facilitators and barriers to PA maintenance in mid-life and older adults previously involved in a PA trial. Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with 60 PACE-UP participants across all study arms. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and coded independently by researchers, prior to thematic analysis. Findings Two-thirds of participants felt since the PACE-UP trial they had an awareness of PA, with the pedometer reported as 'kick-starting' regular activity, and then helped them to maintain regular activity. PA facilitators included: maintaining good health, self-motivation, social support and good weather. Lack of time was the most frequently cited barrier. Other barriers were often the inverse of the facilitators; for example, poor health and bad weather. Participants described the type of 'top-up' intervention they would find beneficial to aid PA maintenance (eg, text messages, online resources and walking groups). A challenge for future PA interventions is to transform barriers into facilitators; for example, educating trial participants about the value of PA for many chronic health conditions to change this from inhibiting to promoting PA. Participants provided ideas for encouraging PA maintenance which could be incorporated into future interventions.

Governing through time: preparing for future threats to health and security.

PubMed

Samimian-Darash, Limor

2011-09-01

During preparations for the Second Gulf War, Israel considered universal smallpox vaccination. In doing so, it faced a problem: how to legitimise carrying out a security action against an uncertain future danger (smallpox pandemic), when this action carried specific, known risks (vaccine complications). To solve this problem, the Israeli preparedness system created a new domain through which the security action could reach its goal with minimum risk: first responders (a group of medical personnel and security forces). First-responder vaccination represents a shift in the form of 'securing health' and in the governmental technology applied to this goal, in which past, present, and future occurrences are governed to enable the execution of a security action. Through this practice, risks are not located in the present or in the future but in a 'shared' temporal space and thus can be seen as existing simultaneously. Preparedness for emerging future biological events, then, involves more than questioning how the future is contingent on the present and how the present is contingent on the future's perception; it also recognises the need for a new time positioning that allows operating on both present and future risks simultaneously. Governing these risks, then, means governing through time. © 2011 The Author. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2011 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Does intolerance of uncertainty predict anticipatory startle responses to uncertain threat?

PubMed

Nelson, Brady D; Shankman, Stewart A

2011-08-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed to be an important maintaining factor in several anxiety disorders, including generalized anxiety disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and social phobia. While IU has been shown to predict subjective ratings and decision-making during uncertain/ambiguous situations, few studies have examined whether IU also predicts emotional responding to uncertain threat. The present study examined whether IU predicted aversive responding (startle and subjective ratings) during the anticipation of temporally uncertain shocks. Sixty-nine participants completed three experimental conditions during which they received: no shocks, temporally certain/predictable shocks, and temporally uncertain shocks. Results indicated that IU was negatively associated with startle during the uncertain threat condition in that those with higher IU had a smaller startle response. IU was also only related to startle during the uncertain (and not the certain/predictable) threat condition, suggesting that it was not predictive of general aversive responding, but specific to responses to uncertain aversiveness. Perceived control over anxiety-related events mediated the relation between IU and startle to uncertain threat, such that high IU led to lowered perceived control, which in turn led to a smaller startle response. We discuss several potential explanations for these findings, including the inhibitory qualities of IU. Overall, our results suggest that IU is associated with attenuated aversive responding to uncertain threat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using multiobjective tradeoff sets and Multivariate Regression Trees to identify critical and robust decisions for long term water utility planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Balaji, R.

2017-12-01

In light of deeply uncertain factors like future climate change and population shifts, responsible resource management will require new types of information and strategies. For water utilities, this entails potential expansion and efficient management of water supply infrastructure systems for changes in overall supply; changes in frequency and severity of climate extremes such as droughts and floods; and variable demands, all while accounting for conflicting long and short term performance objectives. Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) are emerging decision support tools that have been used by researchers and, more recently, water utilities to efficiently generate and evaluate thousands of planning portfolios. The tradeoffs between conflicting objectives are explored in an automated way to produce (often large) suites of portfolios that strike different balances of performance. Once generated, the sets of optimized portfolios are used to support relatively subjective assertions of priorities and human reasoning, leading to adoption of a plan. These large tradeoff sets contain information about complex relationships between decisions and between groups of decisions and performance that, until now, has not been quantitatively described. We present a novel use of Multivariate Regression Trees (MRTs) to analyze tradeoff sets to reveal these relationships and critical decisions. Additionally, when MRTs are applied to tradeoff sets developed for different realizations of an uncertain future, they can identify decisions that are robust across a wide range of conditions and produce fundamental insights about the system being optimized.

Strategy under uncertainty.

PubMed

Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

1997-01-01

At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

Betting on the future: the virtues of contingent contracts.

PubMed

Bazerman, M H; Gillespie, J J

1999-01-01

It happens all the time. Two parties with common interests fail to reach an agreement--about a sale, a merger, a technology transfer--because they have different expectations about the future. They are both so confident in their prediction, or so suspicious of the other side's motives, that they refuse to compromise. Such impasses are hard to break through. Fortunately, they can often be avoided altogether by using a straightforward but frequently overlooked type of agreement called a contingent contract. The terms of a contingent contract are not finalized until the uncertain event in question--the contingency--takes place. In some areas of business, such as compensation, contingent contracts are common: a CEO's pay is tied to the company's stock price, for instance. But in many business negotiations, contingent contracts are either ignored or rejected out of hand. That's mistake, according to the authors. In an increasingly uncertain world, flexible contingent contracts can actually be more rational and less risky than rigid, traditional ones. In particular, contingent contracts offer six benefits: they enable a difference of opinion to become the basis of an agreement, not an obstacle to it; they cancel out the biases of negotiators; they level the playing field by reducing the impact of asymmetric information; they provide a means of uncovering deceitful dealings; they reduce risk by sharing it among parties; and they motivate parties to fulfill their promises. While contingent contracts are not appropriate in all instances, they are much more broadly applicable than managers may think.

Envisioning the Future of Aquatic Animal Tracking: Technology, Science, and Application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lennox, Robert J.; Aarestrup, Kim; Cooke, Steven J.

Electronic tags have proven to be extremely useful for broadening our understanding of aquatic animals by answering diverse questions about their behaviours, physiologies, and life histories fundamental to ecology. Simultaneously, many applied conservation and management efforts are informed by animals tagged with electronic tags. In spite of the many advances in tracking software and hardware, an uncertain future in the world’s aquatic ecosystems portends great challenges for science. Aquatic animal tracking with electronic tags represents both the present and future of integrative biology and ecology in aquatic ecosystems. Here we identify what we regard as the future of aquatic animalmore » tracking in a horizon scanning exercise. We submit that the future of aquatic animal tracking will include opportunities for multi-platform tracking systems for simultaneously monitoring position, activity, physiology, and microhabitat of animals, improved data collection and accessibility with new infrastructure (e.g. tags, receivers) and cyberinfrastructure, and integrated tagging information with animal traits derived from biopsy during tagging. We discuss parallel needs and opportunities in areas related to the application of animal tracking in the future such as knowledge mobilization and governance.« less

Cerulean Warbler Occurrence Atlas for Military Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

Army Ammuniton Plant (Closed) IN NO 2009 Army IOWA ARMY AMMUNITION PLANT IA UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE J. Percy Priest Lake TN UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE J...Stonewall Jackson Lake WV UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE Summersville Lake WV no POC Army Sunflower Army Ammunition Plant KS no POC USACE Sutton Lake WV UNCERTAIN

Public preferences for vaccination and antiviral medicines under different pandemic flu outbreak scenarios.

PubMed

Rubinstein, Helena; Marcu, Afrodita; Yardley, Lucy; Michie, Susan

2015-02-27

During the 2009-2010 A(H1N1) pandemic, many people did not seek care quickly enough, failed to take a full course of antivirals despite being authorised to receive them, and were not vaccinated. Understanding facilitators and barriers to the uptake of vaccination and antiviral medicines will help inform campaigns in future pandemic influenza outbreaks. Increasing uptake of vaccines and antiviral medicines may need to address a range of drivers of behaviour. The aim was to identify facilitators of and barriers to being vaccinated and taking antiviral medicines in uncertain and severe pandemic influenza scenarios using a theoretical model of behaviour change, COM-B. Focus groups and interviews with 71 members of the public in England who varied in their at-risk status. Participants responded to uncertain and severe scenarios, and to messages giving advice on vaccination and antiviral medicines. Data were thematically analysed using the theoretical framework provided by the COM-B model. Influences on uptake of vaccines and antiviral medicines - capabilities, motivations and opportunities - are part of an inter-related behavioural system and different components influenced each other. An identity of being healthy and immune from infection was invoked to explain feelings of invulnerability and hence a reduced need to be vaccinated, especially during an uncertain scenario. The identity of being a 'healthy person' also included beliefs about avoiding medicine and allowing the body to fight disease 'naturally'. This was given as a reason for using alternative precautionary behaviours to vaccination. This identity could be held by those not at-risk and by those who were clinically at-risk. Promoters and barriers to being vaccinated and taking antiviral medicines are multi-dimensional and communications to promote uptake are likely to be most effective if they address several components of behaviour. The benefit of using the COM-B model is that it is at the core of an approach that can identify effective strategies for behaviour change and communications for the future. Identity beliefs were salient for decisions about vaccination. Communications should confront identity beliefs about being a 'healthy person' who is immune from infection by addressing how vaccination can boost wellbeing and immunity.

Know how to maximize maintenance spending

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carrino, A.J.; Jones, R.B.; Platt, W.E.

Solomon has developed a methodology to determine a large optimum point where availability meets maintenance spending for Powder River Basin (PRB) coal-fired units. Using a database of sufficient size and composition across various operating ranges, Solomon generated an algorithm that predicts the relationship between maintenance spending and availability. Coupling this generalized algorithm with a unit-specific market-loss curve determines the optimum spending for a facility. The article presents the results of the analysis, how this methodology can be applied to develop optimum operating and financial targets for specific units and markets and a process to achieve those targets. It also describesmore » how this methodology can be used for other types of fossil-fired technologies and future enhancements to the analysis. 5 figs.« less

CONTEMPORARY SITUATIONS AND PROBLEMS OF ROAD/BRIDGE MAINTENANCE TECHNICAL COOPERATION PROJECTS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimiya, Noriaki; Sanui, Kazumasa; Mizota, Yuzo

It is widely acknowledged that roads are the most important transport infrastructure in developing countries. Unlike railroads requiring organizations and systems to operate, individuals can drive on roads. Almost all donors have assisted developing countr ies for new road constructions and rehabilitations. Report of insufficient maintenance in the developing countries, however, has been notable. As a result of the maintenance problems, deterioration of roads is pr ogressing with speed more than expected. It causes the traffic safety problems and an obstacle of economic development. JICA and other donors recognize that this situation can not be overlooked and reci pient countries are increasing their expectation of obtaining assistance on road/bridge maintenance. JICA has implemented over 10 technical cooper ation projects for road/b ridge maintenance in developing countries. JICA conducted a study to review those projects comprehensively. That study aims at obtaining problems, lessons learned and discussion material for policy making and method improvement for future similar pr ojects. This report introduces the outline of the study including additional analysis and recommendations by the authors.

[Hospital clinical engineer orientation and function in the maintenance system of hospital medical equipment].

PubMed

Li, Bin; Zheng, Yunxin; He, Dehua; Jiang, Ruiyao; Chen, Ying; Jing, Wei

2012-03-01

The quantity of medical equipment in hospital rise quickly recent year. It provides the comprehensive support to the clinical service. The maintenance of medical equipment becomes more important than before. It is necessary to study on the orientation and function of clinical engineer in medical equipment maintenance system. Refer to three grade health care system, the community doctors which is called General practitioner, play an important role as the gatekeeper of health care system to triage and cost control. The paper suggests that hospital clinical engineer should play similar role as the gatekeeper of medical equipment maintenance system which composed by hospital clinical engineer, manufacture engineer and third party engineer. The hospital clinical engineer should be responsible of guard a pass of medical equipment maintenance quality and cost control. As the gatekeeper, hospital clinical engineer should take the responsibility of "General engineer" and pay more attention to safety and health of medical equipment. The responsibility description and future transition? development of clinical engineer as "General Engineer" is discussed. More attention should be recommended to the team building of hospital clinical engineer as "General Engineer".

Eating disorders: Insights from imaging and behavioral approaches to treatment.

PubMed

Stice, Eric; Shaw, Heather

2017-11-01

Understanding factors that contribute to eating disorders, which affect 13% of females, is critical to developing effective prevention and treatment programs. In this paper, we summarize results from prospective studies that identified factors predicting onset and persistence of eating disorders and core symptom dimensions. Next, implications for intervention targets for prevention, and treatment interventions from the risk- and maintenance-factor findings are discussed. Third, given that evidence suggests eating disorders are highly heritable, implying biological risk and maintenance factors for eating disorders, we offer working hypotheses about biological factors that might contribute to eating disorders, based on extant risk factor findings, theory, and cross-sectional studies. Finally, potentially fruitful directions for future research are presented. We suggest that it would be useful for experimental therapeutics trials to evaluate the effects of reducing the risk factors on future onset of eating pathology and on reducing maintenance factors on the risk for persistence of eating pathology, and encourage researchers to utilize prospective high-risk studies so that knowledge regarding potential intervention targets for prevention and treatment interventions for eating disorders can be advanced. Using the most rigorous research designs should help improve the efficacy of prevention and treatment interventions for eating disorders.

The Current Status and Tendency of China Millimeter Coordinate Frame Implementation and Maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, P.; Cheng, Y.; Bei, J.

2017-12-01

China Geodetic Coordinate System 2000 (CGCS2000) was first officially declared as the national standard coordinate system on July 1, 2008. This reference frame was defined in the ITRF97 frame at epoch 2000.0 and included 2600 GPS geodetic control points. The paper discusses differences between China Geodetic Coordinate System 2000 (CGCS2000) and later updated ITRF versions, such as ITRF2014,in terms of technical implementation and maintenance. With the development of the Beidou navigation satellite system, especially third generation of BDS with signal global coverage in the future, and with progress of space geodetic technology, it is possible for us to establish a global millimeter-level reference frame based on space geodetic technology including BDS. The millimeter reference frame implementation concerns two factors: 1) The variation of geocenter motion estimation, and 2) the site nonlinear motion modeling. In this paper, the geocentric inversion methods are discussed and compared among results derived from various technical methods. Our nonlinear site movement modeling focuses on singular spectrum analysis method, which is of apparent advantages over earth physical effect modeling. All presented in the paper expected to provide reference to our future CGCS2000 maintenance.

Deployable bamboo structure project: A building life-cycle report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firdaus, Adrian; Prastyatama, Budianastas; Sagara, Altho; Wirabuana, Revian N.

2017-11-01

Bamboo is considered as a sustainable material in the world of construction, and it is vastly available in Indonesia. The general utilization of the material is increasingly frequent, however, its usage as a deployable structure-a recently-developed use of bamboo, is still untapped. This paper presents a report on a deployable bamboo structure project, covering the entire building life-cycle phase. The cycle encompasses the designing; fabrication; transportation; construction; operation and maintenance; as well as a plan for future re-use. The building is made of a configuration of the structural module, each being a folding set of bars which could be reduced in size to fit into vehicles for easy transportation. Each structural module was made of Gigantochloa apus bamboo. The fabrication, transportation, and construction phase require by a minimum of three workers. The fabrication and construction phase require three hours and fifteen minutes respectively. The building is utilized as cafeteria stands, the operation and maintenance phase started since early March 2017. The maintenance plan is scheduled on a monthly basis, focusing on the inspection of the locking mechanism element and the entire structural integrity. The building is designed to allow disassembly process so that it is reusable in the future.

Use of Future Scenarios as a Pedagogical Approach for Science Teacher Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paige, Kathryn; Lloyd, David

2016-04-01

Futures studies is usually a transdisciplinary study and as such embraces the physical world of the sciences and system sciences and the subjective world of individuals and cultures, as well as the time dimension—past, present and futures. Science education, where student interests, opportunities and challenges often manifest themselves, can provide a suitable entry point for futures work. In this paper, we describe how we have used futures themes, concepts and techniques both implicitly and explicitly in our undergraduate middle school teacher education courses and, in particular, science curriculum and general studies courses. Taking a critical orientation to the past and the present in these courses enables the future to be more than a mere reproduction of the status quo and opens up a range of possible futures in the areas of current interest. For example, having studied middle school teaching and learning in mathematics and science, students explore the past, present and possible future of a natural part of a university campus. In a general studies course on the science of the Earth's atmosphere, students construct a normative futures scenario on living in a changing climate. One way to gain insight into an uncertain future is to construct scenarios. This technique has been used since the 1970s to bring issues of environment and development—areas with strong science content—to the attention of both scientists and policymakers.

Economic rate of discount and estimating cost benefit of viral immunisation programmes.

PubMed

West, R R

1999-01-01

Many individual and societal decisions over purchase (or investment) involve consideration of timing, in that either the price may be paid now and the benefit enjoyed some time in the future or the converse the benefit enjoyed now and the price paid later. Since most individuals generally prefer the present to the future, economic theory has conventionally discounted future costs or benefits to estimate 'net present values'. The rationale for this is principally based on future uncertainty. In recent years, economists have turned their attention to valuing health as an economic 'good'. Observations of individual behaviour would imply that individuals discount future health, as other potential benefits, mostly because there is some uncertainty about their futures. Although economic theory is strongly predicated on the 'sovereignty of the individual', it does not necessarily follow that society discounts the future as do individuals, since for society the future is not so uncertain. Society's endorsement of many public health and preventive medicine objectives, which seek health gains in the future (rather than the present), imply that society's rate of discount may be appreciably lower than that of individuals. In immunisation, arguably one of the most effective of preventive measures, there is the additional benefit to others attributable to herd immunity. This paper argues that the future health gains for society arising from immunisation should not be underestimated by application of inappropriate discounting.

The effect of caregiver-delivered social-communication interventions on skill generalization and maintenance in ASD.

PubMed

Hong, Ee Rea; Neely, Leslie; Gerow, Stephanie; Gann, Candace

2018-03-01

Although caregiver-delivered social communication interventions have been considered scientifically proven practices for individuals with autism spectrum disorders, it is not well examined if these types of intervention modes are truly effective in promoting skill generalization and maintenance within those individuals with autism spectrum disorders. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the status of the extant literature regarding the measures on generalization and/or maintenance of effects of caregiver-delivered communication interventions for children with autism spectrum disorders. This systematic literature review and meta-analysis evaluated peer-reviewed research regarding the effects of caregiver-implemented interventions on the maintenance and generalization of the social-communication skills for children with autism spectrum disorders. A total of 34 articles were included following a systematic search. Articles were summarized according to the following categories: (a) generalization dimension, (b) generalization assessment design, (c) maintenance assessment design, (d) generalization/maintenance teaching strategy, and (e) latency to maintenance probes. After application of design standards, aggregate Tau-U and non-overlap of pairs effect sizes were calculated with a total of 67 separate contrasts across seven studies. Overall, effect size scores ranged from small to large effects across all comparisons. On average, most of the baseline to maintenance and generalization comparisons produced moderate to large effects. Whereas, small to moderate or even deteriorate effects were found in most of the intervention to maintenance and generalization comparisons. The findings in this review suggest that caregiver-delivered social-communication interventions are likely to result in mixed effects on skill generalization and maintenance within children with autism spectrum disorders. Implications for future research and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designing Interventions that Last: A Classification of Environmental Behaviors in Relation to the Activities, Costs, and Effort Involved for Adoption and Maintenance

PubMed Central

Moore, Harriet E.; Boldero, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Policy makers draw on behavioral research to design interventions that promote the voluntary adoption of environmental behavior in societies. Many environmental behaviors will only be effective if they are maintained over the long-term. In the context of climate change and concerns about future water security, behaviors that involve reducing energy consumption and improving water quality must be continued indefinitely to mitigate global warming and preserve scarce resources. Previous reviews of environmental behavior have focused exclusively on factors related to adoption. This review investigates the factors that influence both adoption and maintenance, and presents a classification of environmental behaviors in terms of the activities, costs, and effort required for both adoption and maintenance. Three categories of behavior are suggested. One-off behaviors involve performing an activity once, such as purchasing an energy efficient washing machine, or signing a petition. Continuous behaviors involve the performance of the same set of behaviors for adoption and for maintenance, such as curbside recycling. Dynamic behaviors involve the performance of different behaviors for adoption and maintenance, such as revegetation. Behaviors can also be classified into four categories related to cost and effort: those that involve little cost and effort for adoption and maintenance, those that involve moderate cost and effort for adoption and maintenance, those that involve a high cost or effort for adoption and less for maintenance, and those that involve less cost or effort for adoption and a higher amount for maintenance. In order to design interventions that last, policy makers should consider the factors that influence the maintenance as well as the adoption of environmental behaviors. PMID:29163265

Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, David G.; Yates, David; Tebaldi, Claudia

2008-12-01

Climate change may impact water resources management conditions in difficult-to-predict ways. A key challenge for water managers is how to incorporate highly uncertain information about potential climate change from global models into local- and regional-scale water management models and tools to support local planning. This paper presents a new method for developing large ensembles of local daily weather that reflect a wide range of plausible future climate change scenarios while preserving many statistical properties of local historical weather patterns. This method is demonstrated by evaluating the possible impact of climate change on the Inland Empire Utilities Agency service area in southern California. The analysis shows that climate change could impact the region, increasing outdoor water demand by up to 10% by 2040, decreasing local water supply by up to 40% by 2040, and decreasing sustainable groundwater yields by up to 15% by 2040. The range of plausible climate projections suggests the need for the region to augment its long-range water management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change.

Dominant frames in legacy and social media coverage of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Saffron; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Kurz, Tim; Wiersma, Bouke; Boykoff, Maxwell

2015-04-01

The media are powerful agents that translate information across the science-policy interface, framing it for audiences. Yet frames are never neutral: they define an issue, identify causes, make moral judgements and shape proposed solutions. Here, we show how the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was framed in UK and US broadcast and print coverage, and on Twitter. Coverage of IPCC Working Group I (WGI) was contested and politicized, employing the `Settled Science, Uncertain Science, Political or Ideological Struggle and Role of Science’ frames. WGII coverage commonly used Disaster or Security. More diverse frames were employed for WGII and WGIII, including Economics and Morality and Ethics. Framing also varied by media institution: for example, the BBC used Uncertain Science, whereas Channel 4 did not. Coverage varied by working group, with WGIII gaining far less coverage than WGI or WGII. We suggest that media coverage and framing of AR5 was influenced by its sequential three-part structure and by the availability of accessible narratives and visuals. We recommend that these communication lessons be applied to future climate science reports.

From Lean Times to Enrollment Declines: The Governor's Commission on the Future of Higher Education in Michigan. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Widmayer, Patricia

Conditions in higher education in Michigan and the role of the Governor's Commission on the Future of Higher Education in Michigan are highlighted. The average college tuition rate in Michigan is the highest in the nation, and a critical maintenance and equipment problem exists. The Commission is composed of knowledgeable persons without vested…

Augmented reality application utility for aviation maintenance work instruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourcho, John Bryan

Current aviation maintenance work instructions do not display information effectively enough to prevent costly errors and safety concerns. Aircraft are complex assemblies of highly interrelated components that confound troubleshooting and can make the maintenance procedure difficult (Drury & Gramopadhye, 2001). The sophisticated nature of aircraft maintenance necessitates a revolutionized training intervention for aviation maintenance technicians (United States General Accounting Office, 2003). Quite simply, the paper based job task cards fall short of offering rapid access to technical data and the system or component visualization necessary for working on complex integrated aircraft systems. Possible solutions to this problem include upgraded standards for paper based task cards and the use of integrated 3D product definition used on various mobile platforms (Ropp, Thomas, Lee, Broyles, Lewin, Andreychek, & Nicol, 2013). Previous studies have shown that incorporation of 3D graphics in work instructions allow the user to more efficiently and accurately interpret maintenance information (Jackson & Batstone, 2008). For aircraft maintenance workers, the use of mobile 3D model-based task cards could make current paper task card standards obsolete with their ability to deliver relevant, synchronized information to and from the hangar. Unlike previous versions of 3D model-based definition task cards and paper task cards, which are currently used in the maintenance industry, 3D model based definition task cards have the potential to be more mobile and accessible. Utilizing augmented reality applications on mobile devices to seamlessly deliver 3D product definition on mobile devices could increase the efficiency, accuracy, and reduce the mental workload for technicians when performing maintenance tasks (Macchiarella, 2004). This proposal will serve as a literary review of the aviation maintenance industry, the spatial ability of maintenance technicians, and benefits of modern digital hardware to educate, point out gaps in research, and observe possible foundations on which to build the future of aviation maintenance job task cards leading to a the methodology of the proposed study.

Investigation of accidents within construction zones in Louisiana.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-07-01

This investigation is to analyze construction and maintenance work zone accidents by reviewing accident data to determine if deficiencies exist and recommend possible corrective measures for future traffic control applications. To accomplish this, a ...

"Set in Stone" or "Ray of Hope": Parents' Beliefs About Cause and Prognosis After Genomic Testing of Children Diagnosed with ASD.

PubMed

Reiff, Marian; Bugos, Eva; Giarelli, Ellen; Bernhardt, Barbara A; Spinner, Nancy B; Sankar, Pamela L; Mulchandani, Surabhi

2017-05-01

Despite increasing utilization of chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA) for autism spectrum disorders (ASD), limited information exists about how results influence parents' beliefs about etiology and prognosis. We conducted in-depth interviews and surveys with 57 parents of children with ASD who received CMA results categorized as pathogenic, negative or variant of uncertain significance. Parents tended to incorporate their child's CMA results within their existing beliefs about the etiology of ASD, regardless of CMA result. However, parents' expectations for the future tended to differ depending on results; those who received genetic confirmation for their children's ASD expressed a sense of concreteness, acceptance and permanence of the condition. Some parents expressed hope for future biomedical treatments as a result of genetic research.

Can qualitative research play a role in answering ethical questions in intensive care?

PubMed

Meunier-Beillard, Nicolas; Ecarnot, Fiona; Rigaud, Jean-Philippe; Quenot, Jean-Pierre

2017-12-01

Scientific and technological progress, as well as increased patient autonomy have profoundly changed the world of healthcare, giving rise to new situations that are increasingly complex and uncertain. Quantitative paradigms, of which the main bastion is evidence-based medicine (EBM), are beginning to reach their limits in daily routine practice of medicine, and new approaches are emerging that can provide novel heuristic perspectives. Qualitative research approaches can be useful for apprehending new areas of knowledge that are fundamental to recent and future developments in intensive care.

Can qualitative research play a role in answering ethical questions in intensive care?

PubMed Central

Ecarnot, Fiona; Rigaud, Jean-Philippe; Quenot, Jean-Pierre

2017-01-01

Scientific and technological progress, as well as increased patient autonomy have profoundly changed the world of healthcare, giving rise to new situations that are increasingly complex and uncertain. Quantitative paradigms, of which the main bastion is evidence-based medicine (EBM), are beginning to reach their limits in daily routine practice of medicine, and new approaches are emerging that can provide novel heuristic perspectives. Qualitative research approaches can be useful for apprehending new areas of knowledge that are fundamental to recent and future developments in intensive care. PMID:29302601

MARSnet: Mission-aware Autonomous Radar Sensor Network for Future Combat Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-31

Deviation Consider the case of a Gaussian primary MF having a fixed mean, ml, and an uncertain standard deviation that takes on values in [ai, 2]’ i.e...fuzzy set, so thatR k --* AXk (k = 1,... ,p), the upper and lower MFs of Pkk merge into one MF, AXk (Xk), in which case Theorem 1 simplifies to: Corollary...the upper and lower MFs of A k(Xk) merge into one crisp value, namely 1, in which case Theorem 1 simplifies further to: Corollary 2 In a favor weak

Autonomous Landing and Smart Anchoring for In-Situ Exploration of Small Bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghavimi, Ali R.; Serricchio, Frederick; Hadaegh, Fred Y.; Dolgin, Ben

2000-01-01

Future NASA missions include in-situ scientific explorations of small interplanetary objects like comets and asteroids. Sample acquisition systems are envisioned to operate directly from the landers that are anchored to the surface. Landing and anchoring proves to be challenging in the absence of an attitude control system and in the presence of nearly zero-gravity environments with uncertain surface terrain and unknown mechanical properties. This paper presents recent advancements in developing a novel landing and anchoring control system for the exploration of small bodies.

A Monte Carlo modeling alternative for the API Gamma Ray Calibration Facility.

PubMed

Galford, J E

2017-04-01

The gamma ray pit at the API Calibration Facility, located on the University of Houston campus, defines the API unit for natural gamma ray logs used throughout the petroleum logging industry. Future use of the facility is uncertain. An alternative method is proposed to preserve the gamma ray API unit definition as an industry standard by using Monte Carlo modeling to obtain accurate counting rate-to-API unit conversion factors for gross-counting and spectral gamma ray tool designs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementation of an agile maintenance mechanic assignment methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, Jesus A.; Quintana, Rolando

2000-10-01

The objective of this research was to develop a decision support system (DSS) to study the impact of introducing new equipment into a medical apparel plant from a maintenance organizational structure perspective. This system will enable the company to determine if their capacity is sufficient to meet current maintenance challenges. The DSS contains two database sets that describe equipment and maintenance resource profiles. The equipment profile specifies data such as mean time to failures, mean time to repairs, and minimum mechanic skill level required to fix each machine group. Similarly, maintenance-resource profile reports information about the mechanic staff, such as number and type of certifications received, education level, and experience. The DSS will then use this information to minimize machine downtime by assigning the highest skilled mechanics to machines with higher complexity and product value. A modified version of the simplex method, the transportation problem, was used to perform the optimization. The DSS was built using the Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) language contained in the Microsoft Excel environment. A case study was developed from current existing data. The analysis consisted of forty-two machine groups and six mechanic categories with ten skill levels. Results showed that only 56% of the mechanic workforce was utilized. Thus, the company had available resources for meeting future maintenance requirements.

Learning accurate very fast decision trees from uncertain data streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Chunquan; Zhang, Yang; Shi, Peng; Hu, Zhengguo

2015-12-01

Most existing works on data stream classification assume the streaming data is precise and definite. Such assumption, however, does not always hold in practice, since data uncertainty is ubiquitous in data stream applications due to imprecise measurement, missing values, privacy protection, etc. The goal of this paper is to learn accurate decision tree models from uncertain data streams for classification analysis. On the basis of very fast decision tree (VFDT) algorithms, we proposed an algorithm for constructing an uncertain VFDT tree with classifiers at tree leaves (uVFDTc). The uVFDTc algorithm can exploit uncertain information effectively and efficiently in both the learning and the classification phases. In the learning phase, it uses Hoeffding bound theory to learn from uncertain data streams and yield fast and reasonable decision trees. In the classification phase, at tree leaves it uses uncertain naive Bayes (UNB) classifiers to improve the classification performance. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-life datasets demonstrate the strong ability of uVFDTc to classify uncertain data streams. The use of UNB at tree leaves has improved the performance of uVFDTc, especially the any-time property, the benefit of exploiting uncertain information, and the robustness against uncertainty.

Green Tunnel Construction Technology and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J. L.; Shi, P. X.; Huang, J.; Li, H. G.; Zhou, X. Q.

2018-05-01

With the dramatic growth of urban tunnels in recent years, energy saving and environmental protection have received intensive attention in tunnel construction and operation. As reference to the concept of green buildings, this paper proposes the concept of green tunnels. Combining with the key issues of tunnel design, construction, operation and maintenance, the major aspects of green tunnels including prefabricated construction, noise control, ventilation & lighting energy saving, and digital intelligent maintenance are discussed and the future development of green tunnels is outlined with the economic and social benefits as indicators.

Plant maintenance and advanced reactors issue, 2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agnihotri, Newal

2004-09-15

The focus of the September-October issue is on plant maintenance and advanced reactors. Major articles/reports in this issue include: Optimism about the future of nuclear power, by Ruth G. Shaw, Duke Power Company; Licensed in three countries, by GE Energy; Enhancing public acceptance, by Westinghouse Electric Company; Standardized MOV program, by Ted Neckowicz, Exelon; Inservice testing, by Steven Unikewicz, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Asian network for education, Fatimah Mohd Amin, Malaysian Institute for Nuclear Technology Research; and, Cooling water intake optimization, by Jeffrey M. Jones and Bert Mayer, P.E., Framatome ANP.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, O.; Hawkes, A.; Gambhir, A.; Staffell, I.

2017-08-01

Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain. Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that, regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh-1 for installed stationary systems and US$175 ± 25 kWh-1 for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment of material and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175-510 billion would be needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027-2040 based on market growth projections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further study by industry, policymakers and academics.

Inverted base pavements : new field test and design catalogue.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

The current economic situation has severely affected the US road infrastructure and funding has become : inadequate for either maintenance or future growth. : The inverted base pavement structure is a promising alternative to achieve high quality roa...

Health Care Delivery.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Starfield, Barbara

1987-01-01

The article reviews emerging health care delivery options for handicapped children. Cost structures, quality of care, and future prospects are considered for Health Maintenance Organizations, Preferred Provider Organizations, Tax Supported Direct Service Programs, Hospital-Based Services, and Ambulatory Care Organizations. (Author/DB)

Analysis of INDOT current hydraulic policies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Hydraulic design often tends to be on a conservative side for safety reasons. Hydraulic structures are : typically oversized with the goal being reduced future maintenance costs, and to reduce the risk of : property owner complaints. This approach le...

Analysis of INDOT current hydraulic policies : [spreadsheet].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Hydraulic design often tends to be on a conservative side for safety reasons. Hydraulic structures are typically oversized with the goal being reduced future maintenance costs, and to reduce the risk of property owner complaints. This approach leads ...

Remaining Sites Verification Package for the 100-B-20, 1716-B Maintenance Garage Underground Tank, Waste Site Reclassification Form 2006-019

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

L. M. Dittmer

2006-09-27

The 100-B-20 waste site, located in the 100-BC-1 Operable Unit of the Hanford Site, consisted of an underground oil tank that once serviced the 1716-B Maintenance Garage. The selected action for the 100-B-20 waste site involved removal of the oil tanks and their contents and demonstrating through confirmatory sampling that all cleanup goals have been met. In accordance with this evaluation, a reclassification status of interim closed out has been determined. The results demonstrate that the site will support future unrestricted land uses that can be represented by a rural-residential scenario. These results also show that residual concentrations support unrestrictedmore » future use of shallow zone soil and that contaminant levels remaining in the soil are protective of groundwater and the Columbia River.« less

Cluster synchronization transmission of different external signals in discrete uncertain network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chengren; Lü, Ling; Chen, Liansong; Hong, Yixuan; Zhou, Shuang; Yang, Yiming

2018-07-01

We research cluster synchronization transmissions of different external signals in discrete uncertain network. Based on the Lyapunov theorem, the network controller and the identification law of uncertain adjustment parameter are designed, and they are efficiently used to achieve the cluster synchronization and the identification of uncertain adjustment parameter. In our technical scheme, the network nodes in each cluster and the transmitted external signal can be different, and they allow the presence of uncertain parameters in the network. Especially, we are free to choose the clustering topologies, the cluster number and the node number in each cluster.

Prediction accident triangle in maintenance of underground mine facilities using Poisson distribution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khuluqi, M. H.; Prapdito, R. R.; Sambodo, F. P.

2018-04-01

In Indonesia, mining is categorized as a hazardous industry. In recent years, a dramatic increase of mining equipment and technological complexities had resulted in higher maintenance expectations that accompanied by the changes in the working conditions, especially on safety. Ensuring safety during the process of conducting maintenance works in underground mine is important as an integral part of accident prevention programs. Accident triangle has provided a support to safety practitioner to draw a road map in preventing accidents. Poisson distribution is appropriate for the analysis of accidents at a specific site in a given time period. Based on the analysis of accident statistics in the underground mine maintenance of PT. Freeport Indonesia from 2011 through 2016, it is found that 12 minor accidents for 1 major accident and 66 equipment damages for 1 major accident as a new value of accident triangle. The result can be used for the future need for improving the accident prevention programs.

The clinical obesity maintenance model: an integration of psychological constructs including mood, emotional regulation, disordered overeating, habitual cluster behaviours, health literacy and cognitive function.

PubMed

Raman, Jayanthi; Smith, Evelyn; Hay, Phillipa

2013-01-01

Psychological distress and deficits in executive functioning are likely to be important barriers to effective weight loss maintenance. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, in the light of recent evidence in the fields of neuropsychology and obesity, particularly on the deficits in the executive function in overweight and obese individuals, a conceptual and theoretical framework of obesity maintenance is introduced by way of a clinical obesity maintenance model (COMM). It is argued that psychological variables, that of habitual cluster Behaviors, emotional dysregulation, mood, and health literacy, interact with executive functioning and impact on the overeating/binge eating behaviors of obese individuals. Second, cognizant of this model, it is argued that the focus of obesity management should be extended to include a broader range of maintaining mechanisms, including but not limited to cognitive deficits. Finally, a discussion on potential future directions in research and practice using the COMM is provided.

Proceedings 2011: Selected Papers from the Fifteenth College-Wide Conference for Students in Languages, Linguistics & Literature (15th, Honolulu, Hawai'i, April 16, 2011)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carey, Britany, Ed.; Sasayama, Shoko, Ed.

2011-01-01

The theme of this year's conference was "Check Your Vision for the Future" with papers highlighting emerging changes in language use and literature, as well as suggestions for improving language teaching and maintenance in the future. The plenary speech was given by Dr. Katie Drager, followed by student presentations. Following a preface…

Pap Testing Stages of Adoption among Cambodian Immigrants

PubMed Central

Taylor, Victoria M.; Jackson, J. Carey; Yasui, Yutaka; Schwartz, Stephen M.; Kuniyuki, Alan; Fischer, Meredith; Tu, Shin-Ping

2006-01-01

Purpose We examined levels of Pap testing and factors associated with screening participation among Cambodian refugees. Methods A community-based, in-person survey was conducted in Seattle during late 1997 and early 1998. Interviews were completed by 413 women; the estimated response rate was 73%. We classified respondents into four Pap testing stages of adoption: precontemplation/contemplation (never screened), relapse (ever screened but did not plan to be screened in the future), action (ever screened and planned to be screened in the future), and maintenance (recently screened and planned to be screened in the future). Bivariate and multivariate techniques were used to examine various factors. Findings About one-quarter (24%) of the respondents has never been screened, and a further 22% had been screened but did not plan to obtain Pap tests in the future. Fifteen percent were in the action stage and 39% were in the maintenance stage. The following factors were independently associated with cervical cancer screening stages: previous physician recommendation; younger age; beliefs about Pap testing for post-menopausal women, screening for sexually inactive women, and regular checkups; provider ethnicity; prenatal care in the US; and problems finding interpreters. Conclusions Our findings confirm low Pap testing rates among Cambodian immigrants, and suggest that targeted interventions should be multifaceted. PMID:11567513

Examining the Relationship Between Passenger Airline Aircraft Maintenance Outsourcing and Aircraft Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, Kari L.

The problem addressed was the concern for aircraft safety rates as they relate to the rate of maintenance outsourcing. Data gathered from 14 passenger airlines: AirTran, Alaska, America West, American, Continental, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Midwest, Northwest, Southwest, United, and USAir covered the years 1996 through 2008. A quantitative correlational design, utilizing Pearson's correlation coefficient, and the coefficient of determination were used in the present study to measure the correlation between variables. Elements of passenger airline aircraft maintenance outsourcing and aircraft accidents, incidents, and pilot deviations within domestic passenger airline operations were analyzed, examined, and evaluated. Rates of maintenance outsourcing were analyzed to determine the association with accident, incident, and pilot deviation rates. Maintenance outsourcing rates used in the evaluation were the yearly dollar expenditure of passenger airlines for aircraft maintenance outsourcing as they relate to the total airline aircraft maintenance expenditures. Aircraft accident, incident, and pilot deviation rates used in the evaluation were the yearly number of accidents, incidents, and pilot deviations per miles flown. The Pearson r-values were calculated to measure the linear relationship strength between the variables. There were no statistically significant correlation findings for accidents, r(174)=0.065, p=0.393, and incidents, r(174)=0.020, p=0.793. However, there was a statistically significant correlation for pilot deviation rates, r(174)=0.204, p=0.007 thus indicating a statistically significant correlation between maintenance outsourcing rates and pilot deviation rates. The calculated R square value of 0.042 represents the variance that can be accounted for in aircraft pilot deviation rates by examining the variance in aircraft maintenance outsourcing rates; accordingly, 95.8% of the variance is unexplained. Suggestions for future research include replication of the present study with the inclusion of maintenance outsourcing rate data for all airlines differentiated between domestic and foreign repair station utilization. Replication of the present study every five years is also encouraged to continue evaluating the impact of maintenance outsourcing practices on passenger airline safety.

Translational research: bridging the gap between long-term weight loss maintenance research and practice.

PubMed

Akers, Jeremy D; Estabrooks, Paul A; Davy, Brenda M

2010-10-01

The number of US adults classified as overweight or obese has dramatically increased in the past 25 years, resulting in a significant body of research addressing weight loss and weight loss maintenance. However, little is known about the potential of weight loss maintenance interventions to be translated into actual practice settings. Thus, the purpose of this article is to determine the translation potential of published weight loss maintenance intervention studies by determining the extent to which they report information across the reach, efficacy/effectiveness, adoption, implementation, and maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. A secondary purpose is to provide recommendations for research based on these findings. To identify relevant research articles, a literature search was conducted using four databases; 19 weight loss maintenance intervention studies were identified for inclusion. Each article was evaluated using the RE-AIM Coding Sheet for Publications to determine the extent to which dimensions related to internal and external validity were reported. Approximately half of the articles provided information addressing three RE-AIM dimensions, yet only a quarter provided information addressing adoption and maintenance. Significant gaps were identified in understanding external validity, and metrics that could facilitate the translation of these interventions from research to practice are presented. Based upon this review, it is unknown how effective weight loss maintenance interventions could be in real-world situations, such as clinical or community practice settings. Future studies should be planned to address how weight loss maintenance intervention programs will be adopted and maintained, with special attention to costs for participants and for program implementation. Copyright © 2010 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Department of Defense Energy and Logistics: Implications of Historic and Future Cost, Risk, and Capability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tisa, Paul C.

Every year the DoD spends billions satisfying its large petroleum demand. This spending is highly sensitive to uncontrollable and poorly understood market forces. Additionally, while some stakeholders may not prioritize its monetary cost and risk, energy is fundamentally coupled to other critical factors. Energy, operational capability, and logistics are heavily intertwined and dependent on uncertain security environment and technology futures. These components and their relationships are less understood. Without better characterization, future capabilities may be significantly limited by present-day acquisition decisions. One attempt to demonstrate these costs and risks to decision makers has been through a metric known as the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy (FBCE). FBCE is defined as the commodity price for fuel plus many of these hidden costs. The metric encouraged a valuable conversation and is still required by law. However, most FBCE development stopped before the lessons from that conversation were incorporated. Current implementation is easy to employ but creates little value. Properly characterizing the costs and risks of energy and putting them in a useful tradespace requires a new framework. This research aims to highlight energy's complex role in many aspects of military operations, the critical need to incorporate it in decisions, and a novel framework to do so. It is broken into five parts. The first describes the motivation behind FBCE, the limits of current implementation, and outlines a new framework that aids decisions. Respectively, the second, third, and fourth present a historic analysis of the connections between military capabilities and energy, analyze the recent evolution of this conversation within the DoD, and pull the historic analysis into a revised framework. The final part quantifies the potential impacts of deeply uncertain futures and technological development and introduces an expanded framework that brings capability, energy, and their uncertainty into the same tradespace. The work presented is intended to inform better policies and investment decisions for military acquisitions. The discussion highlights areas within the DoD's understanding of energy that could improve or whose development has faltered. The new metric discussed allows the DoD to better manage and plan for long-term energy-related costs and risk.

Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in Mission Supportability Assessment: A Necessary Step in Understanding Risk and Logistics Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owens, Andrew; De Weck, Olivier L.; Stromgren, Chel; Goodliff, Kandyce; Cirillo, William

2017-01-01

Future crewed missions to Mars present a maintenance logistics challenge that is unprecedented in human spaceflight. Mission endurance – defined as the time between resupply opportunities – will be significantly longer than previous missions, and therefore logistics planning horizons are longer and the impact of uncertainty is magnified. Maintenance logistics forecasting typically assumes that component failure rates are deterministically known and uses them to represent aleatory uncertainty, or uncertainty that is inherent to the process being examined. However, failure rates cannot be directly measured; rather, they are estimated based on similarity to other components or statistical analysis of observed failures. As a result, epistemic uncertainty – that is, uncertainty in knowledge of the process – exists in failure rate estimates that must be accounted for. Analyses that neglect epistemic uncertainty tend to significantly underestimate risk. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced via operational experience; for example, the International Space Station (ISS) failure rate estimates are refined using a Bayesian update process. However, design changes may re-introduce epistemic uncertainty. Thus, there is a tradeoff between changing a design to reduce failure rates and operating a fixed design to reduce uncertainty. This paper examines the impact of epistemic uncertainty on maintenance logistics requirements for future Mars missions, using data from the ISS Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLS) as a baseline for a case study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the impact of variations in failure rate estimates and epistemic uncertainty on spares mass. The results of these analyses and their implications for future system design and mission planning are discussed.

Scheduling Future Water Supply Investments Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huskova, I.; Matrosov, E. S.; Harou, J. J.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2014-12-01

Uncertain hydrological impacts of climate change, population growth and institutional changes pose a major challenge to planning of water supply systems. Planners seek optimal portfolios of supply and demand management schemes but also when to activate assets whilst considering many system goals and plausible futures. Incorporation of scheduling into the planning under uncertainty problem strongly increases its complexity. We investigate some approaches to scheduling with many-objective heuristic search. We apply a multi-scenario many-objective scheduling approach to the Thames River basin water supply system planning problem in the UK. Decisions include which new supply and demand schemes to implement, at what capacity and when. The impact of different system uncertainties on scheme implementation schedules are explored, i.e. how the choice of future scenarios affects the search process and its outcomes. The activation of schemes is influenced by the occurrence of extreme hydrological events in the ensemble of plausible scenarios and other factors. The approach and results are compared with a previous study where only the portfolio problem is addressed (without scheduling).

HIV/AIDS, childhood and governance: sundering the bonds of human society.

PubMed

Barnett, Tony

2005-12-01

There is a disharmonious resonance between the length of HIV infection in the individual human host and the length of a human generation. In brief, an infected person may have children, these may be orphaned and grow up to become infected, and afterwards they themselves may have children, who can be orphaned in turn. Hence, a basic unit of social structure in most human societies, the three-generation bond between grandparents, parents and the current generation - and on into the future - is repeatedly torn apart in the absence of treatment, a vaccine or behaviour change. This situation should be read against the threat of growing viral resistance. Certain implications of these processes for the future are outlined and discussed. The paper notes the uncertain future confronting societies that already have a relatively high number of orphans, and considers some otherwise unexpected possibilities, as well as the dangers of assuming that large-scale orphaning necessarily leads to social unrest and disorder.

Personality Patterns in Narcotics Anonymous Members versus Individuals with Addiction Receiving Methadone Maintenance Therapy.

PubMed

Akhondzadeh, Shahin; Shabrang, Moslem; Rezaei, Omid; Rezaei, Farzin

2014-07-01

Therapeutic interventions can be classified into two distinct approaches: abstinent and maintenance method. Currently, there are no clear criteria for referring addicted patients to one of these modalities. We aimed to compare the personality characteristics of individuals with addiction who attended narcotics anonymous sessions with those who received methadone maintenance therapy. This was a cross- sectional study. The participants were NA members and patients who were undergoing methadone maintenance treatment in outpatient clinics. Using the randomized cluster sampling method, 200 individuals with opioid dependence were selected (each group 100 persons). Data were collected through a demographic questionnaire and the five-factor personality inventory (NEO-FFI). Comparison of the mean scores of NEO-PPI in the two groups was performed by independent t test, and qualitative variables were compared using the Chi-square test. We found a significant difference between the MMT and NA groups with respect to neuroticism, extroversion, and agreeableness. No significant difference was found in the subscales of conscientious and openness. People who regularly attended the NA sessions had lower neuroticism and higher agreeableness than patients who were under the maintenance modality. Whether this is the cause or effect of attending NA sessions requires future large-scale cohort studies.

NDE system for determining wood guardrail post integrity.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

Wood guardrail posts degrade over time and a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) inspection system is needed to determine the condition : of the nearly 2 million posts along our highways to prioritize future investments in maintenance. A robust, cost-eff...

Impacts and Future of the California Fuel Tax Swap of 2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-05-01

California's Gas Tax Swap remains controversial, and the issue is compounded by the States current need to finance some $59 billion worth of backlogged highway maintenance projects. Even before the Governor Schwarzenegger made his proposal, there ...