The Role of Threat Level and Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) in Anxiety: An Experimental Test of IU Theory.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary E; Schmidt, Norman B

2017-07-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed as an important transdiagnostic variable within mood- and anxiety-related disorders. The extant literature has suggested that individuals high in IU interpret uncertainty more negatively. Furthermore, theoretical models of IU posit that those elevated in IU may experience an uncertain threat as more anxiety provoking than a certain threat. However, no research to date has experimentally manipulated the certainty of an impending threat while utilizing an in vivo stressor. In the current study, undergraduate participants (N = 79) were randomized to one of two conditions: certain threat (participants were told that later on in the study they would give a 3-minute speech) or uncertain threat (participants were told that later on in the study they would flip a coin to determine whether or not they would give a 3-minute speech). Participants also completed self-report questionnaires measuring their baseline state anxiety, baseline trait IU, and prespeech state anxiety. Results indicated that trait IU was associated with greater state anticipatory anxiety when the prospect of giving a speech was made uncertain (i.e., uncertain condition). Further, findings indicated no significant difference in anticipatory state anxiety among individuals high in IU when comparing an uncertain versus certain threat (i.e., uncertain and certain threat conditions, respectively). Furthermore, results found no significant interaction between condition and trait IU when predicting state anticipatory anxiety. This investigation is the first to test a crucial component of IU theory while utilizing an ecologically valid paradigm. Results of the present study are discussed in terms of theoretical models of IU and directions for future work. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

A new framework for quantifying uncertainties in modelling studies for future climates - how more certain are CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations compared to CMIP3?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sivakumar, B.; Mehrotra, R.

2014-12-01

We outline a new framework for assessing uncertainties in model simulations, be they hydro-ecological simulations for known scenarios, or climate simulations for assumed scenarios representing the future. This framework is illustrated here using GCM projections for future climates for hydrologically relevant variables (precipitation and temperature), with the uncertainty segregated into three dominant components - model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty (representing greenhouse gas emission scenarios), and ensemble uncertainty (representing uncertain initial conditions and states). A novel uncertainty metric, the Square Root Error Variance (SREV), is used to quantify the uncertainties involved. The SREV requires: (1) Interpolating raw and corrected GCM outputs to a common grid; (2) Converting these to percentiles; (3) Estimating SREV for model, scenario, initial condition and total uncertainty at each percentile; and (4) Transforming SREV to a time series. The outcome is a spatially varying series of SREVs associated with each model that can be used to assess how uncertain the system is at each simulated point or time. This framework, while illustrated in a climate change context, is completely applicable for assessment of uncertainties any modelling framework may be subject to. The proposed method is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature from 6 CMIP3 and 13 CMIP5 GCMs across the world. For CMIP3, B1, A1B and A2 scenarios whereas for CMIP5, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representing low, medium and high emissions are considered. For both CMIP3 and CMIP5, model structure is the largest source of uncertainty, which reduces significantly after correcting for biases. Scenario uncertainly increases, especially for temperature, in future due to divergence of the three emission scenarios analysed. While CMIP5 precipitation simulations exhibit a small reduction in total uncertainty over CMIP3, there is almost no reduction observed for temperature projections. Estimation of uncertainty in both space and time sheds lights on the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainties in GCM outputs, providing an effective platform for risk-based assessments of any alternate plans or decisions that may be formulated using GCM simulations.

Seminal Plasma Proteins as Androgen Receptor Corregulators Promote Prostate Cancer Growth

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

functional analyses of semenogelins in pathological conditions have been reported and their roles in prostate cancer outgrowth remain uncertain. In...1Departments of Pathology and Urology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 2Department of Pathology and Laboratory... pathological conditions have been reported and their roles in prostate cancer growth remain uncertain. In the current study, we aim to determine the

Reinforcement-Learning-Based Robust Controller Design for Continuous-Time Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Subject to Input Constraints.

PubMed

Liu, Derong; Yang, Xiong; Wang, Ding; Wei, Qinglai

2015-07-01

The design of stabilizing controller for uncertain nonlinear systems with control constraints is a challenging problem. The constrained-input coupled with the inability to identify accurately the uncertainties motivates the design of stabilizing controller based on reinforcement-learning (RL) methods. In this paper, a novel RL-based robust adaptive control algorithm is developed for a class of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems subject to input constraints. The robust control problem is converted to the constrained optimal control problem with appropriately selecting value functions for the nominal system. Distinct from typical action-critic dual networks employed in RL, only one critic neural network (NN) is constructed to derive the approximate optimal control. Meanwhile, unlike initial stabilizing control often indispensable in RL, there is no special requirement imposed on the initial control. By utilizing Lyapunov's direct method, the closed-loop optimal control system and the estimated weights of the critic NN are proved to be uniformly ultimately bounded. In addition, the derived approximate optimal control is verified to guarantee the uncertain nonlinear system to be stable in the sense of uniform ultimate boundedness. Two simulation examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the present approach.

Nuclear modification factor in an anisotropic quark-gluon plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Mahatsab; Bhattacharya, Lusaka; Roy, Pradip

2011-10-01

We calculate the nuclear modification factor (RAA) of light hadrons by taking into account the initial state momentum anisotropy of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) expected to be formed in relativistic heavy ion collisions. Such an anisotropy can result from the initial rapid longitudinal expansion of the matter. A phenomenological model for the space-time evolution of the anisotropic QGP is used to obtain the time dependence of the anisotropy parameter ξ and the hard momentum scale, phard. The result is then compared with the PHENIX experimental data to constrain the isotropization time scale, τiso for fixed initial conditions (FIC). It is shown that the extracted value of τiso lies in the range 0.5⩽τiso⩽1.5. However, using a fixed final multiplicity (FFM) condition does not lead to any firm conclusion about the extraction of the isotropization time. The present calculation is also extended to contrast with the recent measurement of nuclear modification factor by the ALICE collaboration at s=2.76 TeV. It is argued that in the present approach, the extraction of τiso at this energy is uncertain and, therefore, refinement of the model is necessary. The sensitivity of the results on the initial conditions has been discussed. We also present the nuclear modification factor at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) energies with s=5.5 TeV.

Greenland Regional and Ice Sheet-wide Geometry Sensitivity to Boundary and Initial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, L. C.; Narayanan, S. H. K.; Greve, R.; Heimbach, P.

2017-12-01

Ice sheet and glacier model outputs require inputs from uncertainly known initial and boundary conditions, and other parameters. Conservation and constitutive equations formalize the relationship between model inputs and outputs, and the sensitivity of model-derived quantities of interest (e.g., ice sheet volume above floatation) to model variables can be obtained via the adjoint model of an ice sheet. We show how one particular ice sheet model, SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets), depends on these inputs through comprehensive adjoint-based sensitivity analyses. SICOPOLIS discretizes the shallow-ice and shallow-shelf approximations for ice flow, and is well-suited for paleo-studies of Greenland and Antarctica, among other computational domains. The adjoint model of SICOPOLIS was developed via algorithmic differentiation, facilitated by the source transformation tool OpenAD (developed at Argonne National Lab). While model sensitivity to various inputs can be computed by costly methods involving input perturbation simulations, the time-dependent adjoint model of SICOPOLIS delivers model sensitivities to initial and boundary conditions throughout time at lower cost. Here, we explore both the sensitivities of the Greenland Ice Sheet's entire and regional volumes to: initial ice thickness, precipitation, basal sliding, and geothermal flux over the Holocene epoch. Sensitivity studies such as described here are now accessible to the modeling community, based on the latest version of SICOPOLIS that has been adapted for OpenAD to generate correct and efficient adjoint code.

An online tool for Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS): a Statistical-Dynamical Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, M.; Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.

2017-12-01

The Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS) is an online tool recently developed at Portland State University for operational agricultural drought forecasting. This is an integrated statistical-dynamical framework issuing probabilistic drought forecasts monthly for the lead times of 1, 2, and 3 months. The statistical drought forecasting method utilizes copula functions in order to condition the future soil moisture values on the antecedent states. Due to stochastic nature of land surface properties, the antecedent soil moisture states are uncertain; therefore, data assimilation system based on Particle Filtering (PF) is employed to quantify the uncertainties associated with the initial condition of the land state, i.e. soil moisture. PF assimilates the satellite soil moisture data to Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model and ultimately updates the simulated soil moisture. The OPDFS builds on the NOAA's seasonal drought outlook by offering drought probabilities instead of qualitative ordinal categories and provides the user with the probability maps associated with a particular drought category. A retrospective assessment of the OPDFS showed that the forecasting of the 2012 Great Plains and 2014 California droughts were possible at least one month in advance. The OPDFS offers a timely assistance to water managers, stakeholders and decision-makers to develop resilience against uncertain upcoming droughts.

Cued uncertainty modulates later recognition of emotional pictures: An ERP study.

PubMed

Lin, Huiyan; Xiang, Jing; Li, Saili; Liang, Jiafeng; Zhao, Dongmei; Yin, Desheng; Jin, Hua

2017-06-01

Previous studies have shown that uncertainty about the emotional content of an upcoming event modulates event-related potentials (ERPs) during the encoding of the event, and this modulation is affected by whether there are cues (i.e., cued uncertainty) or not (i.e., uncued uncertainty) prior to the encoding of the uncertain event. Recently, we showed that uncued uncertainty affected ERPs in later recognition of the emotional event. However, it is as yet unknown how the ERP effects of recognition are modulated by cued uncertainty. To address this issue, participants were asked to view emotional (negative and neutral) pictures that were presented after cues. The cues either indicated the emotional content of the pictures (the certain condition) or not (the cued uncertain condition). Subsequently, participants had to perform an unexpected old/new task in which old and novel pictures were shown without any cues. ERP data in the old/new task showed smaller P2 amplitudes for neutral pictures in the cued uncertain condition compared to the certain condition, but this uncertainty effect was not observed for negative pictures. Additionally, P3 amplitudes were generally enlarged for pictures in the cued uncertain condition. Taken together, the present findings indicate that cued uncertainty alters later recognition of emotional events in relevance to feature processing and attention allocation. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Gauging Metallicity of Diffuse Gas under an Uncertain Ionizing Radiation Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hsiao-Wen; Johnson, Sean D.; Zahedy, Fakhri S.; Rauch, Michael; Mulchaey, John S.

2017-06-01

Gas metallicity is a key quantity used to determine the physical conditions of gaseous clouds in a wide range of astronomical environments, including interstellar and intergalactic space. In particular, considerable effort in circumgalactic medium (CGM) studies focuses on metallicity measurements because gas metallicity serves as a critical discriminator for whether the observed heavy ions in the CGM originate in chemically enriched outflows or in more chemically pristine gas accreted from the intergalactic medium. However, because the gas is ionized, a necessary first step in determining CGM metallicity is to constrain the ionization state of the gas which, in addition to gas density, depends on the ultraviolet background radiation field (UVB). While it is generally acknowledged that both the intensity and spectral slope of the UVB are uncertain, the impact of an uncertain spectral slope has not been properly addressed in the literature. This Letter shows that adopting a different spectral slope can result in an order of magnitude difference in the inferred CGM metallicity. Specifically, a harder UVB spectrum leads to a higher estimated gas metallicity for a given set of observed ionic column densities. Therefore, such systematic uncertainties must be folded into the error budget for metallicity estimates of ionized gas. An initial study shows that empirical diagnostics are available for discriminating between hard and soft ionizing spectra. Applying these diagnostics helps reduce the systematic uncertainties in CGM metallicity estimates.

Gauging Metallicity of Diffuse Gas under an Uncertain Ionizing Radiation Field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Hsiao-Wen; Zahedy, Fakhri S.; Johnson, Sean D.

Gas metallicity is a key quantity used to determine the physical conditions of gaseous clouds in a wide range of astronomical environments, including interstellar and intergalactic space. In particular, considerable effort in circumgalactic medium (CGM) studies focuses on metallicity measurements because gas metallicity serves as a critical discriminator for whether the observed heavy ions in the CGM originate in chemically enriched outflows or in more chemically pristine gas accreted from the intergalactic medium. However, because the gas is ionized, a necessary first step in determining CGM metallicity is to constrain the ionization state of the gas which, in addition tomore » gas density, depends on the ultraviolet background radiation field (UVB). While it is generally acknowledged that both the intensity and spectral slope of the UVB are uncertain, the impact of an uncertain spectral slope has not been properly addressed in the literature. This Letter shows that adopting a different spectral slope can result in an order of magnitude difference in the inferred CGM metallicity. Specifically, a harder UVB spectrum leads to a higher estimated gas metallicity for a given set of observed ionic column densities. Therefore, such systematic uncertainties must be folded into the error budget for metallicity estimates of ionized gas. An initial study shows that empirical diagnostics are available for discriminating between hard and soft ionizing spectra. Applying these diagnostics helps reduce the systematic uncertainties in CGM metallicity estimates.« less

Optimization of Biomathematical Model Predictions for Cognitive Performance Impairment in Individuals: Accounting for Unknown Traits and Uncertain States in Homeostatic and Circadian Processes

PubMed Central

Van Dongen, Hans P. A.; Mott, Christopher G.; Huang, Jen-Kuang; Mollicone, Daniel J.; McKenzie, Frederic D.; Dinges, David F.

2007-01-01

Current biomathematical models of fatigue and performance do not accurately predict cognitive performance for individuals with a priori unknown degrees of trait vulnerability to sleep loss, do not predict performance reliably when initial conditions are uncertain, and do not yield statistically valid estimates of prediction accuracy. These limitations diminish their usefulness for predicting the performance of individuals in operational environments. To overcome these 3 limitations, a novel modeling approach was developed, based on the expansion of a statistical technique called Bayesian forecasting. The expanded Bayesian forecasting procedure was implemented in the two-process model of sleep regulation, which has been used to predict performance on the basis of the combination of a sleep homeostatic process and a circadian process. Employing the two-process model with the Bayesian forecasting procedure to predict performance for individual subjects in the face of unknown traits and uncertain states entailed subject-specific optimization of 3 trait parameters (homeostatic build-up rate, circadian amplitude, and basal performance level) and 2 initial state parameters (initial homeostatic state and circadian phase angle). Prior information about the distribution of the trait parameters in the population at large was extracted from psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) performance measurements in 10 subjects who had participated in a laboratory experiment with 88 h of total sleep deprivation. The PVT performance data of 3 additional subjects in this experiment were set aside beforehand for use in prospective computer simulations. The simulations involved updating the subject-specific model parameters every time the next performance measurement became available, and then predicting performance 24 h ahead. Comparison of the predictions to the subjects' actual data revealed that as more data became available for the individuals at hand, the performance predictions became increasingly more accurate and had progressively smaller 95% confidence intervals, as the model parameters converged efficiently to those that best characterized each individual. Even when more challenging simulations were run (mimicking a change in the initial homeostatic state; simulating the data to be sparse), the predictions were still considerably more accurate than would have been achieved by the two-process model alone. Although the work described here is still limited to periods of consolidated wakefulness with stable circadian rhythms, the results obtained thus far indicate that the Bayesian forecasting procedure can successfully overcome some of the major outstanding challenges for biomathematical prediction of cognitive performance in operational settings. Citation: Van Dongen HPA; Mott CG; Huang JK; Mollicone DJ; McKenzie FD; Dinges DF. Optimization of biomathematical model predictions for cognitive performance impairment in individuals: accounting for unknown traits and uncertain states in homeostatic and circadian processes. SLEEP 2007;30(9):1129-1143. PMID:17910385

Initial uncertainty in Pavlovian reward prediction persistently elevates incentive salience and extends sign-tracking to normally unattractive cues.

PubMed

Robinson, Mike J F; Anselme, Patrick; Fischer, Adam M; Berridge, Kent C

2014-06-01

Uncertainty is a component of many gambling games and may play a role in incentive motivation and cue attraction. Uncertainty can increase the attractiveness for predictors of reward in the Pavlovian procedure of autoshaping, visible as enhanced sign-tracking (or approach and nibbles) by rats of a metal lever whose sudden appearance acts as a conditioned stimulus (CS+) to predict sucrose pellets as an unconditioned stimulus (UCS). Here we examined how reward uncertainty might enhance incentive salience as sign-tracking both in intensity and by broadening the range of attractive CS+s. We also examined whether initially induced uncertainty enhancements of CS+ attraction can endure beyond uncertainty itself, and persist even when Pavlovian prediction becomes 100% certain. Our results show that uncertainty can broaden incentive salience attribution to make CS cues attractive that would otherwise not be (either because they are too distal from reward or too risky to normally attract sign-tracking). In addition, uncertainty enhancement of CS+ incentive salience, once induced by initial exposure, persisted even when Pavlovian CS-UCS correlations later rose toward 100% certainty in prediction. Persistence suggests an enduring incentive motivation enhancement potentially relevant to gambling, which in some ways resembles incentive-sensitization. Higher motivation to uncertain CS+s leads to more potent attraction to these cues when they predict the delivery of uncertain rewards. In humans, those cues might possibly include the sights and sounds associated with gambling, which contribute a major component of the play immersion experienced by problematic gamblers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Initial uncertainty in Pavlovian reward prediction persistently elevates incentive salience and extends sign-tracking to normally unattractive cues

PubMed Central

Robinson, Mike J. F.; Anselme, Patrick; Fischer, Adam M.; Berridge, Kent C.

2014-01-01

Uncertainty is a component of many gambling games and may play a role in incentive motivation and cue attraction. Uncertainty can increase the attractiveness for predictors of reward in the Pavlovian procedure of autoshaping, visible as enhanced sign-tracking (or approach and nibbles) by rats of a metal lever whose sudden appearance acts as a conditioned stimulus (CS+) to predict sucrose pellets as an unconditioned stimulus (UCS). Here we examined how reward uncertainty might enhance incentive salience as sign-tracking both in intensity and by broadening the range of attractive CS+s. We also examined whether initially-induced uncertainty enhancements of CS+ attraction can endure beyond uncertainty itself, and persist even when Pavlovian prediction becomes 100% certain. Our results show that uncertainty can broaden incentive salience attribution to make CS cues attractive that would otherwise not be (either because they are too distal from reward or too risky to normally attract sign-tracking). In addition, uncertainty enhancement of CS+ incentive salience, once induced by initial exposure, persisted even when Pavlovian CS-UCS correlations later rose toward 100% certainty in prediction. Persistence suggests an enduring incentive motivation enhancement potentially relevant to gambling, which in some ways resembles incentive-sensitization. Higher motivation to uncertain CS+s leads to more potent attraction to these cues when they predict the delivery of uncertain rewards. In humans, those cues might possibly include the sights and sounds associated with gambling, which contribute a major component of the play immersion experienced by problematic gamblers. PMID:24631397

Synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks with quantum chaotic behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenlin; Li, Chong; Song, Heshan

2016-11-01

Synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks with quantum chaotic behavior is researched. The identification laws of unknown parameters in state equations of network nodes, the adaptive laws of configuration matrix elements and outer coupling strengths are determined based on Lyapunov theorem. The conditions of realizing synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks are discussed and obtained. Further, Jaynes-Cummings model in physics are taken as the nodes of two networks and simulation results show that the synchronization performance between networks is very stable.

Structural acoustic control of plates with variable boundary conditions: design methodology.

PubMed

Sprofera, Joseph D; Cabell, Randolph H; Gibbs, Gary P; Clark, Robert L

2007-07-01

A method for optimizing a structural acoustic control system subject to variations in plate boundary conditions is provided. The assumed modes method is used to build a plate model with varying levels of rotational boundary stiffness to simulate the dynamics of a plate with uncertain edge conditions. A transducer placement scoring process, involving Hankel singular values, is combined with a genetic optimization routine to find spatial locations robust to boundary condition variation. Predicted frequency response characteristics are examined, and theoretically optimized results are discussed in relation to the range of boundary conditions investigated. Modeled results indicate that it is possible to minimize the impact of uncertain boundary conditions in active structural acoustic control by optimizing the placement of transducers with respect to those uncertainties.

Reasoning in Young Children: Fantasy and Information Retrieval.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Markovits, Henry; And Others

1996-01-01

A model of conditional reasoning predicted that children under 12 would respond correctly to questions of uncertain logical form if premises and context enabled them to access counterexamples from memory, and that children's performance with uncertain logical forms would decrease when empirically true premises are presented in a fantasy context.…

Robust fixed-time synchronization for uncertain complex-valued neural networks with discontinuous activation functions.

PubMed

Ding, Xiaoshuai; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Alsaadi, Fuad E; Hayat, Tasawar

2017-06-01

This paper is concerned with the fixed-time synchronization for a class of complex-valued neural networks in the presence of discontinuous activation functions and parameter uncertainties. Fixed-time synchronization not only claims that the considered master-slave system realizes synchronization within a finite time segment, but also requires a uniform upper bound for such time intervals for all initial synchronization errors. To accomplish the target of fixed-time synchronization, a novel feedback control procedure is designed for the slave neural networks. By means of the Filippov discontinuity theories and Lyapunov stability theories, some sufficient conditions are established for the selection of control parameters to guarantee synchronization within a fixed time, while an upper bound of the settling time is acquired as well, which allows to be modulated to predefined values independently on initial conditions. Additionally, criteria of modified controller for assurance of fixed-time anti-synchronization are also derived for the same system. An example is included to illustrate the proposed methodologies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust Stabilization of Uncertain Systems Based on Energy Dissipation Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Sandeep

1996-01-01

Robust stability conditions obtained through generalization of the notion of energy dissipation in physical systems are discussed in this report. Linear time-invariant (LTI) systems which dissipate energy corresponding to quadratic power functions are characterized in the time-domain and the frequency-domain, in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMls) and algebraic Riccati equations (ARE's). A novel characterization of strictly dissipative LTI systems is introduced in this report. Sufficient conditions in terms of dissipativity and strict dissipativity are presented for (1) stability of the feedback interconnection of dissipative LTI systems, (2) stability of dissipative LTI systems with memoryless feedback nonlinearities, and (3) quadratic stability of uncertain linear systems. It is demonstrated that the framework of dissipative LTI systems investigated in this report unifies and extends small gain, passivity, and sector conditions for stability. Techniques for selecting power functions for characterization of uncertain plants and robust controller synthesis based on these stability results are introduced. A spring-mass-damper example is used to illustrate the application of these methods for robust controller synthesis.

Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

2015-10-01

In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for CFD Calculations: Theory and Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

Simulation codes often utilize finite-dimensional approximation resulting in numerical error. Some examples include, numerical methods utilizing grids and finite-dimensional basis functions, particle methods using a finite number of particles. These same simulation codes also often contain sources of uncertainty, for example, uncertain parameters and fields associated with the imposition of initial and boundary data,uncertain physical model parameters such as chemical reaction rates, mixture model parameters, material property parameters, etc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mink, S. E. de; Belczynski, K., E-mail: S.E.deMink@uva.nl, E-mail: kbelczyn@astrouw.edu.pl

The initial mass function (IMF), binary fraction, and distributions of binary parameters (mass ratios, separations, and eccentricities) are indispensable inputs for simulations of stellar populations. It is often claimed that these are poorly constrained, significantly affecting evolutionary predictions. Recently, dedicated observing campaigns have provided new constraints on the initial conditions for massive stars. Findings include a larger close binary fraction and a stronger preference for very tight systems. We investigate the impact on the predicted merger rates of neutron stars and black holes. Despite the changes with previous assumptions, we only find an increase of less than a factor ofmore » 2 (insignificant compared with evolutionary uncertainties of typically a factor of 10–100). We further show that the uncertainties in the new initial binary properties do not significantly affect (within a factor of 2) our predictions of double compact object merger rates. An exception is the uncertainty in IMF (variations by a factor of 6 up and down). No significant changes in the distributions of final component masses, mass ratios, chirp masses, and delay times are found. We conclude that the predictions are, for practical purposes, robust against uncertainties in the initial conditions concerning binary parameters, with the exception of the IMF. This eliminates an important layer of the many uncertain assumptions affecting the predictions of merger detection rates with the gravitational wave detectors aLIGO/aVirgo.« less

Using Large-Eddy Simulation to Explore Microphysical Precursor Conditions for Precipitation Initiation in Marine Stratocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandler, H.; Mechem, D. B.; Fridlind, A. M.; Ackerman, A. S.

2016-12-01

Although the classical model of how a population of cloud droplets grows to precipitation-sized drops through the condensation and coalescence processes is well accepted, it does not fully address the history of how nascent precipitation drops come about in warm clouds. Precipitation initiation is influenced by the properties of the cloud drop distribution and in bulk large-eddy simulation (LES) models is parameterized by autoconversion. Double-moment formulations of autoconversion rate generally weight cloud water content qc more than cloud drop concentration Nc (e.g., qc2.47Nc-1.79, Khairoutdinov and Kogan 2000) and precipitation rate scalings derived from field campaigns suggest a dominance of thermodynamic over aerosol factors. However, the mechanisms that drive precipitation initiation in any given cloud are still uncertain. From the perspective of autoconversion, do the regions where precipitation onset occurs experience large liquid water content values (large qc), or are they anomalously clean (small Nc)? Recent laboratory measurements suggest that fluctuations in the supersaturation field may also play a role in precipitation initiation. This study explores the nature of precursor conditions to precipitation onset within marine stratocumulus clouds. We apply an LES model with size-resolving microphysics to a case of marine stratocumulus over the eastern north Atlantic. Backward trajectories originating from regions of precipitation initiation are calculated from the time-evolving LES flow fields to examine the history of fluid parcels that ultimately contain embryonic precipitation.

Mesoscale Predictability and Error Growth in Short Range Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gingrich, Mark

Although it was originally suggested that small-scale, unresolved errors corrupt forecasts at all scales through an inverse error cascade, some authors have proposed that those mesoscale circulations resulting from stationary forcing on the larger scale may inherit the predictability of the large-scale motions. Further, the relative contributions of large- and small-scale uncertainties in producing error growth in the mesoscales remain largely unknown. Here, 100 member ensemble forecasts are initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simulate two winter storms impacting the East Coast of the United States in 2010. Four verification metrics are considered: the local snow water equivalence, total liquid water, and 850 hPa temperatures representing mesoscale features; and the sea level pressure field representing a synoptic feature. It is found that while the predictability of the mesoscale features can be tied to the synoptic forecast, significant uncertainty existed on the synoptic scale at lead times as short as 18 hours. Therefore, mesoscale details remained uncertain in both storms due to uncertainties at the large scale. Additionally, the ensemble perturbation kinetic energy did not show an appreciable upscale propagation of error for either case. Instead, the initial condition perturbations from the cycling EnKF were maximized at large scales and immediately amplified at all scales without requiring initial upscale propagation. This suggests that relatively small errors in the synoptic-scale initialization may have more importance in limiting predictability than errors in the unresolved, small-scale initial conditions.

Valuing Initial Teacher Education at Master's Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, Clare; Brant, Jacek; Abrahams, Ian; Yandell, John

2012-01-01

The future of Master's-level work in initial teacher education (ITE) in England seems uncertain. Whilst the coalition government has expressed support for Master's-level work, its recent White Paper focuses on teaching skills as the dominant form of professional development. This training discourse is in tension with the view of professional…

Synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain switched network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Li, Gang; Sun, Ao; Yan, Zhe; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan

2017-06-01

We propose a new technology for synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology. In synchronization process, the connection of dynamic network can vary at all time according to different demands. Especially, we construct the Lyapunov function of network through designing a special semi-positive definite function, and the synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology can be realized perfectly, which effectively avoids the complicated calculation for solving the second largest eignvalue of the coupling matrix of the dynamic network in order to obtain the network synchronization condition. At the same time, the uncertain parameters in dynamic equations belonging to network nodes can also be identified accurately via designing the identification laws of uncertain parameters. In addition, there are not any limitations for the synchronization target of network in the new technology, in other words, the target can either be a state variable signal of an arbitrary node within the network or an exterior signal.

"Model age-based" and "copy when uncertain" biases in children's social learning of a novel task.

PubMed

Wood, Lara A; Harrison, Rachel A; Lucas, Amanda J; McGuigan, Nicola; Burdett, Emily R R; Whiten, Andrew

2016-10-01

Theoretical models of social learning predict that individuals can benefit from using strategies that specify when and whom to copy. Here the interaction of two social learning strategies, model age-based biased copying and copy when uncertain, was investigated. Uncertainty was created via a systematic manipulation of demonstration efficacy (completeness) and efficiency (causal relevance of some actions). The participants, 4- to 6-year-old children (N=140), viewed both an adult model and a child model, each of whom used a different tool on a novel task. They did so in a complete condition, a near-complete condition, a partial demonstration condition, or a no-demonstration condition. Half of the demonstrations in each condition incorporated causally irrelevant actions by the models. Social transmission was assessed by first responses but also through children's continued fidelity, the hallmark of social traditions. Results revealed a bias to copy the child model both on first response and in continued interactions. Demonstration efficacy and efficiency did not affect choice of model at first response but did influence solution exploration across trials, with demonstrations containing causally irrelevant actions decreasing exploration of alternative methods. These results imply that uncertain environments can result in canalized social learning from specific classes of model. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

PubMed

Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

2015-06-07

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Robust stability for uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time-varying delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syed Ali, M.; Balasubramaniam, P.

2008-07-01

In this Letter, by utilizing the Lyapunov functional and combining with the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we analyze the global asymptotic stability of uncertain stochastic fuzzy Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays which are represented by the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models. A new class of uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time varying delays has been studied and sufficient conditions have been derived to obtain conservative result in stochastic settings. The developed results are more general than those reported in the earlier literatures. In addition, the numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the result using LMI toolbox in MATLAB.

The Impact of Model Uncertainty on Spatial Compensation in Active Structural Acoustic Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabell, Randolph H.; Gibbs, Gary P.; Sprofera, Joseph D.; Clark, Robert L.

2004-01-01

Turbulent boundary layer (TBL) noise is considered a primary factor in the interior noise experienced by passengers aboard commercial airliners. There have been numerous investigations of interior noise control devoted to aircraft panels; however, practical realization is a challenge since the physical boundary conditions are uncertain at best. In most prior studies, pinned or clamped boundary conditions have been assumed; however, realistic panels likely display a range of varying boundary conditions between these two limits. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is a challenge for control system designers, both in terms of the compensator implemented and the location of actuators and sensors required to achieve the desired control. The impact of model uncertainties, uncertain boundary conditions in particular, on the selection of actuator and sensor locations for structural acoustic control are considered herein. Results from this research effort indicate that it is possible to optimize the design of actuator and sensor location and aperture, which minimizes the impact of boundary conditions on the desired structural acoustic control.

Appropriateness of early management of newly diagnosed Crohn's disease in a European population-based cohort.

PubMed

Juillerat, Pascal; Pittet, Valérie; Mottet, Christian; Felley, Christian; Gonvers, Jean-Jacques; Vader, John-Paul; Burnand, Bernard; Froehlich, Florian; Wolters, Frank L; Stockbrügger, Reinhold W; Michetti, Pierre

2010-12-01

The European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's disease Therapy (EPACT) has developed appropriateness criteria. We have applied these criteria retrospectively to the population-based inception cohort of Crohn's disease (CD) patients of the European Collaborative Study Group on Inflammatory Bowel Disease (EC-IBD). A total of 426 diagnosed CD patients from 13 European centers were enrolled at the time of diagnosis (first flare, naive patients). We used the EPACT definitions to identify 247 patients with active luminal CD. We then assessed the appropriateness of the initial drug prescription according to the EPACT criteria. Among the cohort patients 163 suffered from mild-to-moderate CD and 84 from severe CD. Among the mild-to-moderate disease group, 96 patients (59%) received an appropriate treatment, whereas for 66 patients (40%) the treatment was uncertain and in one case (1%) inappropriate. Among the severe disease group, 86% were treated medically and 14% required surgery. 59 (70%) were appropriately treated, whereas for one patient (1%) the procedure was considered uncertain and for 24 patients (29%) inappropriate. Initial treatment was appropriate in the majority of cases for non-complicated luminal CD. Inappropriate or uncertain treatment was given in a significant minority of patients, with an increased potential risk of adverse events.

Effects of uncertain topographic input data on two-dimensional flow modeling in a gravel-bed river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Legleiter, C.J.; Kyriakidis, P.C.; McDonald, R.R.; Nelson, J.M.

2011-01-01

Many applications in river research and management rely upon two-dimensional (2D) numerical models to characterize flow fields, assess habitat conditions, and evaluate channel stability. Predictions from such models are potentially highly uncertain due to the uncertainty associated with the topographic data provided as input. This study used a spatial stochastic simulation strategy to examine the effects of topographic uncertainty on flow modeling. Many, equally likely bed elevation realizations for a simple meander bend were generated and propagated through a typical 2D model to produce distributions of water-surface elevation, depth, velocity, and boundary shear stress at each node of the model's computational grid. Ensemble summary statistics were used to characterize the uncertainty associated with these predictions and to examine the spatial structure of this uncertainty in relation to channel morphology. Simulations conditioned to different data configurations indicated that model predictions became increasingly uncertain as the spacing between surveyed cross sections increased. Model sensitivity to topographic uncertainty was greater for base flow conditions than for a higher, subbankfull flow (75% of bankfull discharge). The degree of sensitivity also varied spatially throughout the bend, with the greatest uncertainty occurring over the point bar where the flow field was influenced by topographic steering effects. Uncertain topography can therefore introduce significant uncertainty to analyses of habitat suitability and bed mobility based on flow model output. In the presence of such uncertainty, the results of these studies are most appropriately represented in probabilistic terms using distributions of model predictions derived from a series of topographic realizations. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Estimating the Uncertain Mathematical Structure of Hydrological Model via Bayesian Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, N.; Gupta, H.; O'Donell, G.; Wheater, H.

2008-12-01

The structure of hydrological model at macro scale (e.g. watershed) is inherently uncertain due to many factors, including the lack of a robust hydrological theory at the macro scale. In this work, we assume that a suitable conceptual model for the hydrologic system has already been determined - i.e., the system boundaries have been specified, the important state variables and input and output fluxes to be included have been selected, and the major hydrological processes and geometries of their interconnections have been identified. The structural identification problem then is to specify the mathematical form of the relationships between the inputs, state variables and outputs, so that a computational model can be constructed for making simulations and/or predictions of system input-state-output behaviour. We show how Bayesian data assimilation can be used to merge both prior beliefs in the form of pre-assumed model equations with information derived from the data to construct a posterior model. The approach, entitled Bayesian Estimation of Structure (BESt), is used to estimate a hydrological model for a small basin in England, at hourly time scales, conditioned on the assumption of 3-dimensional state - soil moisture storage, fast and slow flow stores - conceptual model structure. Inputs to the system are precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and outputs are actual evapotranspiration and streamflow discharge. Results show the difference between prior and posterior mathematical structures, as well as provide prediction confidence intervals that reflect three types of uncertainty: due to initial conditions, due to input and due to mathematical structure.

The interaction of the flux errors and transport errors in modeled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Butler, M. P.; Keller, K.; Davis, K. J.; Jacobson, A. R.; Schuh, A. E.; Basu, S.; Liu, J.; Baker, D.; Crowell, S.; Zhou, Y.; Williams, C. A.

2017-12-01

Regional estimates of biogenic carbon fluxes over North America from top-down atmospheric inversions and terrestrial biogeochemical (or bottom-up) models remain inconsistent at annual and sub-annual time scales. While top-down estimates are impacted by limited atmospheric data, uncertain prior flux estimates and errors in the atmospheric transport models, bottom-up fluxes are affected by uncertain driver data, uncertain model parameters and missing mechanisms across ecosystems. This study quantifies both flux errors and transport errors, and their interaction in the CO2 atmospheric simulation. These errors are assessed by an ensemble approach. The WRF-Chem model is set up with 17 biospheric fluxes from the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project, CarbonTracker-Near Real Time, and the Simple Biosphere model. The spread of the flux ensemble members represents the flux uncertainty in the modeled CO2 concentrations. For the transport errors, WRF-Chem is run using three physical model configurations with three stochastic perturbations to sample the errors from both the physical parameterizations of the model and the initial conditions. Additionally, the uncertainties from boundary conditions are assessed using four CO2 global inversion models which have assimilated tower and satellite CO2 observations. The error structures are assessed in time and space. The flux ensemble members overall overestimate CO2 concentrations. They also show larger temporal variability than the observations. These results suggest that the flux ensemble is overdispersive. In contrast, the transport ensemble is underdispersive. The averaged spatial distribution of modeled CO2 shows strong positive biogenic signal in the southern US and strong negative signals along the eastern coast of Canada. We hypothesize that the former is caused by the 3-hourly downscaling algorithm from which the nighttime respiration dominates the daytime modeled CO2 signals and that the latter is mainly caused by the large-scale transport associated with the jet stream that carries the negative biogenic CO2 signals to the northeastern coast. We apply comprehensive statistics to eliminate outliers. We generate a set of flux perturbations based on pre-calibrated flux ensemble members and apply them to the simulations.

Feature inference with uncertain categorization: Re-assessing Anderson's rational model.

PubMed

Konovalova, Elizaveta; Le Mens, Gaël

2017-09-18

A key function of categories is to help predictions about unobserved features of objects. At the same time, humans are often in situations where the categories of the objects they perceive are uncertain. In an influential paper, Anderson (Psychological Review, 98(3), 409-429, 1991) proposed a rational model for feature inferences with uncertain categorization. A crucial feature of this model is the conditional independence assumption-it assumes that the within category feature correlation is zero. In prior research, this model has been found to provide a poor fit to participants' inferences. This evidence is restricted to task environments inconsistent with the conditional independence assumption. Currently available evidence thus provides little information about how this model would fit participants' inferences in a setting with conditional independence. In four experiments based on a novel paradigm and one experiment based on an existing paradigm, we assess the performance of Anderson's model under conditional independence. We find that this model predicts participants' inferences better than competing models. One model assumes that inferences are based on just the most likely category. The second model is insensitive to categories but sensitive to overall feature correlation. The performance of Anderson's model is evidence that inferences were influenced not only by the more likely category but also by the other candidate category. Our findings suggest that a version of Anderson's model which relaxes the conditional independence assumption will likely perform well in environments characterized by within-category feature correlation.

Quantifying potential health impacts of cadmium in cigarettes on smoker risk of lung cancer: a portfolio-of-mechanisms approach.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2006-12-01

This article introduces an approach to estimating the uncertain potential effects on lung cancer risk of removing a particular constituent, cadmium (Cd), from cigarette smoke, given the useful but incomplete scientific information available about its modes of action. The approach considers normal cell proliferation; DNA repair inhibition in normal cells affected by initiating events; proliferation, promotion, and progression of initiated cells; and death or sparing of initiated and malignant cells as they are further transformed to become fully tumorigenic. Rather than estimating unmeasured model parameters by curve fitting to epidemiological or animal experimental tumor data, we attempt rough estimates of parameters based on their biological interpretations and comparison to corresponding genetic polymorphism data. The resulting parameter estimates are admittedly uncertain and approximate, but they suggest a portfolio approach to estimating impacts of removing Cd that gives usefully robust conclusions. This approach views Cd as creating a portfolio of uncertain health impacts that can be expressed as biologically independent relative risk factors having clear mechanistic interpretations. Because Cd can act through many distinct biological mechanisms, it appears likely (subjective probability greater than 40%) that removing Cd from cigarette smoke would reduce smoker risks of lung cancer by at least 10%, although it is possible (consistent with what is known) that the true effect could be much larger or smaller. Conservative estimates and assumptions made in this calculation suggest that the true impact could be greater for some smokers. This conclusion appears to be robust to many scientific uncertainties about Cd and smoking effects.

Stability analysis for uncertain switched neural networks with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Shen, Wenwen; Zeng, Zhigang; Wang, Leimin

2016-11-01

In this paper, stability for a class of uncertain switched neural networks with time-varying delay is investigated. By exploring the mode-dependent properties of each subsystem, all the subsystems are categorized into stable and unstable ones. Based on Lyapunov-like function method and average dwell time technique, some delay-dependent sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the exponential stability of considered uncertain switched neural networks. Compared with general results, our proposed approach distinguishes the stable and unstable subsystems rather than viewing all subsystems as being stable, thus getting less conservative criteria. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to show the validity and the advantages of the obtained results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed control systems with incomplete and uncertain information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingpeng

Scientific and engineering advances in wireless communication, sensors, propulsion, and other areas are rapidly making it possible to develop unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) with sophisticated capabilities. UAVs have come to the forefront as tools for airborne reconnaissance to search for, detect, and destroy enemy targets in relatively complex environments. They potentially reduce risk to human life, are cost effective, and are superior to manned aircraft for certain types of missions. It is desirable for UAVs to have a high level of intelligent autonomy to carry out mission tasks with little external supervision and control. This raises important issues involving tradeoffs between centralized control and the associated potential to optimize mission plans, and decentralized control with great robustness and the potential to adapt to changing conditions. UAV capabilities have been extended several ways through armament (e.g., Hellfire missiles on Predator UAVs), increased endurance and altitude (e.g., Global Hawk), and greater autonomy. Some known barriers to full-scale implementation of UAVs are increased communication and control requirements as well as increased platform and system complexity. One of the key problems is how UAV systems can handle incomplete and uncertain information in dynamic environments. Especially when the system is composed of heterogeneous and distributed UAVs, the overall system complexity is increased under such conditions. Presented through the use of published papers, this dissertation lays the groundwork for the study of methodologies for handling incomplete and uncertain information for distributed control systems. An agent-based simulation framework is built to investigate mathematical approaches (optimization) and emergent intelligence approaches. The first paper provides a mathematical approach for systems of UAVs to handle incomplete and uncertain information. The second paper describes an emergent intelligence approach for UAVs, again in handling incomplete and uncertain information. The third paper combines mathematical and emergent intelligence approaches.

Hypersonic Vehicle Trajectory Optimization and Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, S. N.; Shen, J.; Grohs, J. R.

1997-01-01

Two classes of neural networks have been developed for the study of hypersonic vehicle trajectory optimization and control. The first one is called an 'adaptive critic'. The uniqueness and main features of this approach are that: (1) they need no external training; (2) they allow variability of initial conditions; and (3) they can serve as feedback control. This is used to solve a 'free final time' two-point boundary value problem that maximizes the mass at the rocket burn-out while satisfying the pre-specified burn-out conditions in velocity, flightpath angle, and altitude. The second neural network is a recurrent network. An interesting feature of this network formulation is that when its inputs are the coefficients of the dynamics and control matrices, the network outputs are the Kalman sequences (with a quadratic cost function); the same network is also used for identifying the coefficients of the dynamics and control matrices. Consequently, we can use it to control a system whose parameters are uncertain. Numerical results are presented which illustrate the potential of these methods.

Groin pain and iliopsoas bursitis: always a cause-effect relationship?

PubMed

Di Sante, Luca; Paoloni, Marco; De Benedittis, Stefano; Tognolo, Lucrezia; Santilli, Valter

2014-01-01

Iliopsoas bursitis (IB) is characterized by inflammation and enlargement of the iliopsoas bursa. Although this condition is often associated with degenerative or inflammatory arthritis, infections, trauma, overuse and impingement syndromes, osteonecrosis and hip replacement, the pathogenesis of IB remains uncertain. We present a case report of IB associated with moderate hip osteoarthritis (HOA). We present a case report of a 73-year-old man with chronic left hip pain that did not respond to conservative treatments. An ultrasonography examination of the left hip revealed fluid-induced distension of the iliopsoas bursa, which was treated with aspiration followed by a corticosteroid-anesthetic injection. At the 30-day follow-up, despite an initial improvement in the patient's symptoms, both the pain and functional limitation returned, though not in association with bursa distension. The patient therefore underwent a total hip arthroplasty, which fully relieved the symptoms. We hypothesize that iliopsoas bursitis may, when associated with other pathological conditions, not be the only source of pain. It should, nevertheless, be considered for differential diagnosis purposes.

Primary bone marrow oedema syndromes.

PubMed

Patel, Sanjeev

2014-05-01

MRI scanning in patients with rheumatological conditions often shows bone marrow oedema, which can be secondary to inflammatory, degenerative, infective or malignant conditions but can also be primary. The latter condition is of uncertain aetiology and it is also uncertain whether it represents a stage in the progression to osteonecrosis in some patients. Patients with primary bone marrow oedema usually have lower limb pain, commonly the hip, knee, ankle or feet. The diagnosis is one of exclusion with the presence of typical MRI findings. Treatment is usually conservative and includes analgesics and staying off the affected limb. The natural history is that of gradual resolution of symptoms over a number of months. Evidence for medical treatment is limited, but open-label studies suggest bisphosphonates may help in the resolution of pain and improve radiological findings. Surgical decompression is usually used as a last resort.

Signaling events during initiation of arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis.

PubMed

Schmitz, Alexa M; Harrison, Maria J

2014-03-01

Under nutrient-limiting conditions, plants will enter into symbiosis with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi for the enhancement of mineral nutrient acquisition from the surrounding soil. AM fungi live in close, intracellular association with plant roots where they transfer phosphate and nitrogen to the plant in exchange for carbon. They are obligate fungi, relying on their host as their only carbon source. Much has been discovered in the last decade concerning the signaling events during initiation of the AM symbiosis, including the identification of signaling molecules generated by both partners. This signaling occurs through symbiosis-specific gene products in the host plant, which are indispensable for normal AM development. At the same time, plants have adapted complex mechanisms for avoiding infection by pathogenic fungi, including an innate immune response to general microbial molecules, such as chitin present in fungal cell walls. How it is that AM fungal colonization is maintained without eliciting a defensive response from the host is still uncertain. In this review, we present a summary of the molecular signals and their elicited responses during initiation of the AM symbiosis, including plant immune responses and their suppression. © 2014 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Altered brain activation and connectivity during anticipation of uncertain threat in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Geng, Haiyang; Wang, Yi; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yue-Jia; Xu, Pengfei; Huang, Yuxia; Li, Xuebing

2018-06-08

In the research field of anxiety, previous studies generally focus on emotional responses following threat. A recent model of anxiety proposes that altered anticipation prior to uncertain threat is related with the development of anxiety. Behavioral findings have built the relationship between anxiety and distinct anticipatory processes including attention, estimation of threat, and emotional responses. However, few studies have characterized the brain organization underlying anticipation of uncertain threat and its role in anxiety. In the present study, we used an emotional anticipation paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the aforementioned topics by employing brain activation and general psychophysiological interactions (gPPI) analysis. In the activation analysis, we found that high trait anxious individuals showed significantly increased activation in the thalamus, middle temporal gyrus (MTG), and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC), as well as decreased activation in the precuneus, during anticipation of uncertain threat compared to the certain condition. In the gPPI analysis, the key regions including the amygdala, dmPFC, and precuneus showed altered connections with distributed brain areas including the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), inferior parietal sulcus (IPS), insula, para-hippocampus gyrus (PHA), thalamus, and MTG involved in anticipation of uncertain threat in anxious individuals. Taken together, our findings indicate that during the anticipation of uncertain threat, anxious individuals showed altered activations and functional connectivity in widely distributed brain areas, which may be critical for abnormal perception, estimation, and emotion reactions during the anticipation of uncertain threat. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Control of Uncertain Systems under Constraints: Switching Horizon Predictive Control of Persistently Disturbed Input-Saturated Plants

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

on at any time from a family of candidate feedback-gains so as to control a discrete- time input-saturated LTI system possibly subject to persistent... times robustness Mosca, E. (2006) Control of Uncertain Systems under Constraints: Switching Horizon Predictive Control of Persistently Disturbed...feedback controls u = f(x̂) (3) so as to ensure, under suitable conditions, stability in the noiseless case as well as finite l∞-induced gain of the

Estimation of Ecosystem Parameters of the Community Land Model with DREAM: Evaluation of the Potential for Upscaling Net Ecosystem Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks Franssen, H. J.; Post, H.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fox, A. M.; Baatz, R.; Kumbhar, P.; Vereecken, H.

2015-12-01

Estimation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) by land surface models is strongly affected by uncertain ecosystem parameters and initial conditions. A possible approach is the estimation of plant functional type (PFT) specific parameters for sites with measurement data like NEE and application of the parameters at other sites with the same PFT and no measurements. This upscaling strategy was evaluated in this work for sites in Germany and France. Ecosystem parameters and initial conditions were estimated with NEE-time series of one year length, or a time series of only one season. The DREAM(zs) algorithm was used for the estimation of parameters and initial conditions. DREAM(zs) is not limited to Gaussian distributions and can condition to large time series of measurement data simultaneously. DREAM(zs) was used in combination with the Community Land Model (CLM) v4.5. Parameter estimates were evaluated by model predictions at the same site for an independent verification period. In addition, the parameter estimates were evaluated at other, independent sites situated >500km away with the same PFT. The main conclusions are: i) simulations with estimated parameters reproduced better the NEE measurement data in the verification periods, including the annual NEE-sum (23% improvement), annual NEE-cycle and average diurnal NEE course (error reduction by factor 1,6); ii) estimated parameters based on seasonal NEE-data outperformed estimated parameters based on yearly data; iii) in addition, those seasonal parameters were often also significantly different from their yearly equivalents; iv) estimated parameters were significantly different if initial conditions were estimated together with the parameters. We conclude that estimated PFT-specific parameters improve land surface model predictions significantly at independent verification sites and for independent verification periods so that their potential for upscaling is demonstrated. However, simulation results also indicate that possibly the estimated parameters mask other model errors. This would imply that their application at climatic time scales would not improve model predictions. A central question is whether the integration of many different data streams (e.g., biomass, remotely sensed LAI) could solve the problems indicated here.

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "/FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

A systematic analysis of model performance during simulations based on observed landcover/use change is used to quantify errors associated with simulations of known "future" conditions. Calibrated and uncalibrated assessments of relative change over different lengths of...

Communicating Uncertain Experimental Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Alexander L.; Fischhoff, Baruch

2014-01-01

Four experiments examined when laypeople attribute unexpected experimental outcomes to error, in foresight and in hindsight, along with their judgments of whether the data should be published. Participants read vignettes describing hypothetical experiments, along with the result of the initial observation, considered as either a possibility…

Adaptive backstepping control of train systems with traction/braking dynamics and uncertain resistive forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Qi; Song, Y. D.; Cai, Wenchuan

2011-09-01

Although backstepping control design approach has been widely utilised in many practical systems, little effort has been made in applying this useful method to train systems. The main purpose of this paper is to apply this popular control design technique to speed and position tracking control of high-speed trains. By integrating adaptive control with backstepping control, we develop a control scheme that is able to address not only the traction and braking dynamics ignored in most existing methods, but also the uncertain friction and aerodynamic drag forces arisen from uncertain resistance coefficients. As such, the resultant control algorithms are able to achieve high precision train position and speed tracking under varying operation railway conditions, as validated by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations.

Initial report of the osteogenesis imperfecta adult natural history initiative.

PubMed

Tosi, Laura L; Oetgen, Matthew E; Floor, Marianne K; Huber, Mary Beth; Kennelly, Ann M; McCarter, Robert J; Rak, Melanie F; Simmonds, Barbara J; Simpson, Melissa D; Tucker, Carole A; McKiernan, Fergus E

2015-11-14

A better understanding of the natural history of osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) in adulthood should improve health care for patients with this rare condition. The Osteogenesis Imperfecta Foundation established the Adult Natural History Initiative (ANHI) in 2010 to give voice to the health concerns of the adult OI community and to begin to address existing knowledge gaps for this condition. Using a web-based platform, 959 adults with self-reported OI, representing a wide range of self-reported disease severity, reported symptoms and health conditions, estimated the impact of these concerns on present and future health-related quality of life (QoL) and completed a Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS®) survey of health issues. Adults with OI report lower general physical health status (p < .0001), exhibit a higher prevalence of auditory (58% of sample versus 2-16% of normalized population) and musculoskeletal (64% of sample versus 1-3% of normalized population) concerns than the general population, but report generally similar mental health status. Musculoskeletal, auditory, pulmonary, endocrine, and gastrointestinal issues are particular future health-related QoL concerns for these adults. Numerous other statistically significant differences exist among adults with OI as well as between adults with OI and the referent PROMIS® population, but the clinical significance of these differences is uncertain. Adults with OI report lower general health status but are otherwise more similar to the general population than might have been expected. While reassuring, further analysis of the extensive OI-ANHI databank should help identify areas of unique clinical concern and for future research. The OI-ANHI survey experience supports an internet-based strategy for successful patient-centered outcomes research in rare disease populations.

Use of the Coronary Artery Calcium Score in Discussion of Initiation of Statin Therapy in Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Michos, Erin D; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S

2017-12-01

Clinical guidelines for instituting pharmacotherapy for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), specifically lipid management and aspirin, have long been based on absolute risk. However, lipid management in the current era remains challenging to both patients and clinicians in the setting of somewhat discordant recommendations from various organizations. All guidelines endorse the use of statins for primary prevention for those at sufficient absolute risk, and treatment recommendations are generally "risk-based" rather than exclusively targeting specific low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Nonetheless, guidelines differ in relation to the risk threshold for initiation and the intensity of statin treatment. The key concept of the clinician-patient risk discussion introduced in the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines is a process that addresses the potential for ASCVD risk reduction with statin treatment, potential for adverse treatment effects, patient preferences, encouragement of heart-healthy lifestyle, and management of other risk factors. However, operationalizing the clinician-patient risk discussion requires effective communication of the most accurate and personalized risk information. In this article, we review our treatment approach for the appropriate use of coronary artery calcium testing in the intermediate-risk patient to guide shared decision making. The decision to initiate or intensify statin therapy may be uncertain across a broad range of estimated 10-year ASCVD risk of 5% to 20%, and coronary artery calcium testing can reclassify risk upward or downward in approximately 50% of this group to inform the risk discussion. We conclude with 2 case-based examples of uncertain risk and uncertain statin therapeutic benefit to illustrate execution of the clinician-patient risk discussion. Copyright © 2017 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Learning to integrate reactivity and deliberation in uncertain planning and scheduling problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve A.; Gervasio, Melinda T.; Dejong, Gerald F.

1992-01-01

This paper describes an approach to planning and scheduling in uncertain domains. In this approach, a system divides a task on a goal by goal basis into reactive and deliberative components. Initially, a task is handled entirely reactively. When failures occur, the system changes the reactive/deliverative goal division by moving goals into the deliberative component. Because our approach attempts to minimize the number of deliberative goals, we call our approach Minimal Deliberation (MD). Because MD allows goals to be treated reactively, it gains some of the advantages of reactive systems: computational efficiency, the ability to deal with noise and non-deterministic effects, and the ability to take advantage of unforseen opportunities. However, because MD can fall back upon deliberation, it can also provide some of the guarantees of classical planning, such as the ability to deal with complex goal interactions. This paper describes the Minimal Deliberation approach to integrating reactivity and deliberation and describe an ongoing application of the approach to an uncertain planning and scheduling domain.

Nonparametric Discrete Survival Function Estimation with Uncertain Endpoints Using an Internal Validation Subsample

PubMed Central

Zee, Jarcy; Xie, Sharon X.

2015-01-01

Summary When a true survival endpoint cannot be assessed for some subjects, an alternative endpoint that measures the true endpoint with error may be collected, which often occurs when obtaining the true endpoint is too invasive or costly. We develop an estimated likelihood function for the situation where we have both uncertain endpoints for all participants and true endpoints for only a subset of participants. We propose a nonparametric maximum estimated likelihood estimator of the discrete survival function of time to the true endpoint. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We demonstrate through extensive simulations that the proposed estimator has little bias compared to the naïve Kaplan-Meier survival function estimator, which uses only uncertain endpoints, and more efficient with moderate missingness compared to the complete-case Kaplan-Meier survival function estimator, which uses only available true endpoints. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a dataset for estimating the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. PMID:25916510

Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu

Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This papermore » presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.« less

Resource utilization and outcomes management: opportunities for the entrepreneurial pathologist.

PubMed

Vance, R P

1997-01-01

Pathologists and laboratory managers are facing an increasingly uncertain place in the emerging managed care marketplace. Among the various opportunities available is outcomes management. The role of benchmarking in outcomes management and the initial steps in developing outcomes management programs are presented.

The Future of Rheumatoid Arthritis and Hand Surgery - Combining Evolutionary Pharmacology and Surgical Technique

PubMed Central

M, Malahias; H, Gardner; S, Hindocha; A, Juma; Khan, W

2012-01-01

Rheumatoid arthritis is a systemic autoimmune disease of uncertain aetiology, which is characterized primarily by synovial inflammation with secondary skeletal destructions. Rheumatoid Arthritis is diagnosed by the presence of four of the seven diagnostic criteria, defined by The American College of Rheumatology. Approximately half a million adults in the United Kingdom suffer from rheumatoid arthritis with an age prevalence between the second and fourth decades of life; annually approximately 20,000 new cases are diagnosed. The management of Rheumatoid Arthritis is complex; in the initial phase of the disease it primarily depends on pharmacological management. With disease progression, surgical input to correct deformity comes to play an increasingly important role. The treatment of this condition is also intimately coupled with input from both the occupational therapists and physiotherapy. PMID:22423304

Uncertain relational reasoning in the parietal cortex.

PubMed

Ragni, Marco; Franzmeier, Imke; Maier, Simon; Knauff, Markus

2016-04-01

The psychology of reasoning is currently transitioning from the study of deductive inferences under certainty to inferences that have degrees of uncertainty in both their premises and conclusions; however, only a few studies have explored the cortical basis of uncertain reasoning. Using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), we show that areas in the right superior parietal lobe (rSPL) are necessary for solving spatial relational reasoning problems under conditions of uncertainty. Twenty-four participants had to decide whether a single presented order of objects agreed with a given set of indeterminate premises that could be interpreted in more than one way. During the presentation of the order, 10-Hz TMS was applied over the rSPL or a sham control site. Right SPL TMS during the inference phase disrupted performance in uncertain relational reasoning. Moreover, we found differences in the error rates between preferred mental models, alternative models, and inconsistent models. Our results suggest that different mechanisms are involved when people reason spatially and evaluate different kinds of uncertain conclusions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Correlates of vulnerability in Chiricahua fox squirrels

Treesearch

Bret S. Pasch; John L. Koprowski

2005-01-01

Chiricahua fox squirrels (Sciurus nayaritensis chiricahuae) are endemic to the Chiricahua Mountains of southeastern Arizona. A paucity of natural history information and uncertain conservation status served as impetus for us to initiate a descriptive ecological study of the species. We examined reproductive and population ecology of Chiricahua fox...

Physical examination prior to initiating hormonal contraception: a systematic review.

PubMed

Tepper, Naomi K; Curtis, Kathryn M; Steenland, Maria W; Marchbanks, Polly A

2013-05-01

Provision of contraception is often linked with physical examination, including clinical breast examination (CBE) and pelvic examination. This review was conducted to evaluate the evidence regarding outcomes among women with and without physical examination prior to initiating hormonal contraceptives. The PubMed database was searched from database inception through March 2012 for all peer-reviewed articles in any language concerning CBE and pelvic examination prior to initiating hormonal contraceptives. The quality of each study was assessed using the United States Preventive Services Task Force grading system. The search did not identify any evidence regarding outcomes among women screened versus not screened with CBE prior to initiation of hormonal contraceptives. The search identified two case-control studies of fair quality which compared women who did or did not undergo pelvic examination prior to initiating oral contraceptives (OCs) or depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA). No differences in risk factors for cervical neoplasia, incidence of sexually transmitted infections, incidence of abnormal Pap smears or incidence of abnormal wet mount findings were observed. Although women with breast cancer should not use hormonal contraceptives, there is little utility in screening prior to initiation, due to the low incidence of breast cancer and uncertain value of CBE among women of reproductive age. Two fair quality studies demonstrated no differences between women who did or did not undergo pelvic examination prior to initiating OCs or DMPA with respect to risk factors or clinical outcomes. In addition, pelvic examination is not likely to detect any conditions for which hormonal contraceptives would be unsafe. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Robust decentralized hybrid adaptive output feedback fuzzy control for a class of large-scale MIMO nonlinear systems and its application to AHS.

PubMed

Huang, Yi-Shao; Liu, Wel-Ping; Wu, Min; Wang, Zheng-Wu

2014-09-01

This paper presents a novel observer-based decentralized hybrid adaptive fuzzy control scheme for a class of large-scale continuous-time multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) uncertain nonlinear systems whose state variables are unmeasurable. The scheme integrates fuzzy logic systems, state observers, and strictly positive real conditions to deal with three issues in the control of a large-scale MIMO uncertain nonlinear system: algorithm design, controller singularity, and transient response. Then, the design of the hybrid adaptive fuzzy controller is extended to address a general large-scale uncertain nonlinear system. It is shown that the resultant closed-loop large-scale system keeps asymptotically stable and the tracking error converges to zero. The better characteristics of our scheme are demonstrated by simulations. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prediction-based control for LTI systems with uncertain time-varying delays and partial state knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Léchappé, V.; Moulay, E.; Plestan, F.

2018-06-01

The stability of a prediction-based controller for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is studied in the presence of time-varying input and output delays. The uncertain delay case is treated as well as the partial state knowledge case. The reduction method is used in order to prove the convergence of the closed-loop system including the state observer, the predictor and the plant. Explicit conditions that guarantee the closed-loop stability are given, thanks to a Lyapunov-Razumikhin analysis. Simulations illustrate the theoretical results.

Event-Based Robust Control for Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Using Adaptive Dynamic Programming.

PubMed

Zhang, Qichao; Zhao, Dongbin; Wang, Ding

2018-01-01

In this paper, the robust control problem for a class of continuous-time nonlinear system with unmatched uncertainties is investigated using an event-based control method. First, the robust control problem is transformed into a corresponding optimal control problem with an augmented control and an appropriate cost function. Under the event-based mechanism, we prove that the solution of the optimal control problem can asymptotically stabilize the uncertain system with an adaptive triggering condition. That is, the designed event-based controller is robust to the original uncertain system. Note that the event-based controller is updated only when the triggering condition is satisfied, which can save the communication resources between the plant and the controller. Then, a single network adaptive dynamic programming structure with experience replay technique is constructed to approach the optimal control policies. The stability of the closed-loop system with the event-based control policy and the augmented control policy is analyzed using the Lyapunov approach. Furthermore, we prove that the minimal intersample time is bounded by a nonzero positive constant, which excludes Zeno behavior during the learning process. Finally, two simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

Adaptive proximate time-optimal servomechanisms - Continuous time case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Workman, M. L.; Kosut, R. L.; Franklin, G. F.

1987-01-01

A Proximate Time-Optimal Servo (PTOS) is developed, along with conditions for its stability. An algorithm is proposed for adapting the PTOS (APTOS) to improve performance in the face of uncertain plant parameters. Under ideal conditions APTOS is shown to be uniformly asymptotically stable. Simulation results demonstrate the predicted performance.

Differential Mutagenicity and Lung Toxicity of Smoldering Versus Flaming Emissions from a Variety of Biomass Fuels

EPA Science Inventory

Wildfire smoke properties change with combustion conditions and biomass fuel types. However the specific role of wildfire conditions on the health effects following smoke exposure are uncertain. This study applies a novel combustion and smoke-collection system to examine emission...

Uncertain deduction and conditional reasoning.

PubMed

Evans, Jonathan St B T; Thompson, Valerie A; Over, David E

2015-01-01

There has been a paradigm shift in the psychology of deductive reasoning. Many researchers no longer think it is appropriate to ask people to assume premises and decide what necessarily follows, with the results evaluated by binary extensional logic. Most every day and scientific inference is made from more or less confidently held beliefs and not assumptions, and the relevant normative standard is Bayesian probability theory. We argue that the study of "uncertain deduction" should directly ask people to assign probabilities to both premises and conclusions, and report an experiment using this method. We assess this reasoning by two Bayesian metrics: probabilistic validity and coherence according to probability theory. On both measures, participants perform above chance in conditional reasoning, but they do much better when statements are grouped as inferences, rather than evaluated in separate tasks.

An efficient heuristic method for dynamic portfolio selection problem under transaction costs and uncertain conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Amir Abbas; Pourahmadi, Zahra

2016-04-01

Selecting the optimal combination of assets in a portfolio is one of the most important decisions in investment management. As investment is a long term concept, looking into a portfolio optimization problem just in a single period may cause loss of some opportunities that could be exploited in a long term view. Hence, it is tried to extend the problem from single to multi-period model. We include trading costs and uncertain conditions to this model which made it more realistic and complex. Hence, we propose an efficient heuristic method to tackle this problem. The efficiency of the method is examined and compared with the results of the rolling single-period optimization and the buy and hold method which shows the superiority of the proposed method.

Robust stochastic stability of discrete-time fuzzy Markovian jump neural networks.

PubMed

Arunkumar, A; Sakthivel, R; Mathiyalagan, K; Park, Ju H

2014-07-01

This paper focuses the issue of robust stochastic stability for a class of uncertain fuzzy Markovian jumping discrete-time neural networks (FMJDNNs) with various activation functions and mixed time delay. By employing the Lyapunov technique and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, a new set of delay-dependent sufficient conditions are established for the robust stochastic stability of uncertain FMJDNNs. More precisely, the parameter uncertainties are assumed to be time varying, unknown and norm bounded. The obtained stability conditions are established in terms of LMIs, which can be easily checked by using the efficient MATLAB-LMI toolbox. Finally, numerical examples with simulation result are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and less conservativeness of the obtained results. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Controllable uncertain opinion diffusion under confidence bound and unpredicted diffusion probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fuhan; Li, Zhaofeng; Jiang, Yichuan

2016-05-01

The issues of modeling and analyzing diffusion in social networks have been extensively studied in the last few decades. Recently, many studies focus on uncertain diffusion process. The uncertainty of diffusion process means that the diffusion probability is unpredicted because of some complex factors. For instance, the variety of individuals' opinions is an important factor that can cause uncertainty of diffusion probability. In detail, the difference between opinions can influence the diffusion probability, and then the evolution of opinions will cause the uncertainty of diffusion probability. It is known that controlling the diffusion process is important in the context of viral marketing and political propaganda. However, previous methods are hardly feasible to control the uncertain diffusion process of individual opinion. In this paper, we present suitable strategy to control this diffusion process based on the approximate estimation of the uncertain factors. We formulate a model in which the diffusion probability is influenced by the distance between opinions, and briefly discuss the properties of the diffusion model. Then, we present an optimization problem at the background of voting to show how to control this uncertain diffusion process. In detail, it is assumed that each individual can choose one of the two candidates or abstention based on his/her opinion. Then, we present strategy to set suitable initiators and their opinions so that the advantage of one candidate will be maximized at the end of diffusion. The results show that traditional influence maximization algorithms are not applicable to this problem, and our algorithm can achieve expected performance.

Regional forest landscape restoration priorities: Integrating historical conditions and an uncertain future in the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Barry L. Bollenbacher; Russell T. Graham; Keith M. Reynolds

2014-01-01

National law and policy direct the management of the National Forests, with restoring resilient forest conditions being an overarching theme. Climate is a major driver of disturbances that affect ecosystems, especially those with vegetation that show large departures from historical conditions. Drought, fire, insects, and diseases are common forest stressors whose...

Has Lean improved organizational decision making?

PubMed

Simons, Pascale; Benders, Jos; Bergs, Jochen; Marneffe, Wim; Vandijck, Dominique

2016-06-13

Purpose - Sustainable improvement is likely to be hampered by ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in care processes (the organization's decision-making context). Lean management can improve implementation results because it decreases ambiguity and uncertainties. But does it succeed? Many quality improvement (QI) initiatives are appropriate improvement strategies in organizational contexts characterized by low ambiguity and uncertainty. However, most care settings do not fit this context. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a Lean-inspired change program changed the organization's decision-making context, making it more amenable for QI initiatives. Design/methodology/approach - In 2014, 12 professionals from a Dutch radiotherapy institute were interviewed regarding their perceptions of a Lean program in their organization and the perceived ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in their clinical processes. A survey (25 questions), addressing the same concepts, was conducted among the interviewees in 2011 and 2014. The structured interviews were analyzed using a deductive approach. Quantitative data were analyzed using appropriate statistics. Findings - Interviewees experienced improved shared visions and the number of uncertain cause-effect relations decreased. Overall, more positive (99) than negative Lean effects (18) were expressed. The surveys revealed enhanced process predictability and standardization, and improved shared visions. Practical implications - Lean implementation has shown to lead to greater transparency and increased shared visions. Originality/value - Lean management decreased ambiguous objectives and reduced uncertainties in clinical process cause-effect relations. Therefore, decision making benefitted from Lean increasing QI's sustainability.

Interpreting energy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Modeled Watershed Runoff Associated with Variations in Precipitation Data, with Implications for Contaminant Fluxes: Initial Results

EPA Science Inventory

Precipitation is one of the primary forcing functions of hydrologic and watershed fate and transport models; however, in light of advances in precipitation estimates across watersheds, data remain highly uncertain. A wide variety of simulated and observed precipitation data are a...

Fuzzy Stochastic Petri Nets for Modeling Biological Systems with Uncertain Kinetic Parameters

PubMed Central

Liu, Fei; Heiner, Monika; Yang, Ming

2016-01-01

Stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) have been widely used to model randomness which is an inherent feature of biological systems. However, for many biological systems, some kinetic parameters may be uncertain due to incomplete, vague or missing kinetic data (often called fuzzy uncertainty), or naturally vary, e.g., between different individuals, experimental conditions, etc. (often called variability), which has prevented a wider application of SPNs that require accurate parameters. Considering the strength of fuzzy sets to deal with uncertain information, we apply a specific type of stochastic Petri nets, fuzzy stochastic Petri nets (FSPNs), to model and analyze biological systems with uncertain kinetic parameters. FSPNs combine SPNs and fuzzy sets, thereby taking into account both randomness and fuzziness of biological systems. For a biological system, SPNs model the randomness, while fuzzy sets model kinetic parameters with fuzzy uncertainty or variability by associating each parameter with a fuzzy number instead of a crisp real value. We introduce a simulation-based analysis method for FSPNs to explore the uncertainties of outputs resulting from the uncertainties associated with input parameters, which works equally well for bounded and unbounded models. We illustrate our approach using a yeast polarization model having an infinite state space, which shows the appropriateness of FSPNs in combination with simulation-based analysis for modeling and analyzing biological systems with uncertain information. PMID:26910830

Effects of Uncertainty on ERPs to Emotional Pictures Depend on Emotional Valence

PubMed Central

Lin, Huiyan; Jin, Hua; Liang, Jiafeng; Yin, Ruru; Liu, Ting; Wang, Yiwen

2015-01-01

Uncertainty about the emotional content of an upcoming event has found to modulate neural activity to the event before its occurrence. However, it is still under debate whether the uncertainty effects occur after the occurrence of the event. To address this issue, participants were asked to view emotional pictures that were shortly after a cue, which either indicated a certain emotion of the picture or not. Both certain and uncertain cues were used by neutral symbols. The anticipatory phase (i.e., inter-trial interval, ITI) between the cue and the picture was short to enhance the effects of uncertainty. In addition, we used positive and negative pictures that differed only in valence but not in arousal to investigate whether the uncertainty effect was dependent on emotional valence. Electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded during the presentation of the pictures. Event-related potential (ERP) results showed that negative pictures evoked smaller P2 and late LPP but larger N2 in the uncertain as compared to the certain condition; whereas we did not find the uncertainty effect in early LPP. For positive pictures, the early LPP was larger in the uncertain as compared to the certain condition; however, there were no uncertainty effects in some other ERP components (e.g., P2, N2, and late LPP). The findings suggest that uncertainty modulates neural activity to emotional pictures and this modulation is altered by the valence of the pictures, indicating that individuals alter the allocation of attentional resources toward uncertain emotional pictures dependently on the valence of the pictures. PMID:26733916

Rescattering effects on intensity interferometry and initial conditions in relativistic heavy ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yang

The properties of the quark-gluon plasma are being thoroughly studied by utilizing relativistic heavy ion collisions. After its invention in astronomy in the 1950s, intensity interferometry was found to be a robust method to probe the spatial and temporal information of the nuclear collisions also. Although rescattering effects are negligible in elementary particle collisions, it may be very important for heavy ion collisions at RHIC and in the future LHC. Rescattering after production will modify the measured correlation function and make it harder to extract the dynamical information from data. To better understand the data which are dimmed by this final state process, we derive a general formula for intensity interferometry which can calculate rescattering effects easily. The formula can be used both non-relativistically and relativistically. Numerically, we found that rescattering effects on kaon interferometry for RHIC experiments can modify the measured ratio of the outward radius to the sideward radius, which is a sensitive probe to the equation of state, by as large as 15%. It is a nontrivial contribution which should be included to understand the data more accurately. The second part of this thesis is on the initial conditions in relativistic heavy ion collisions. Although relativistic hydrodynamics is successful in explaining many aspects of the data, it is only valid after some finite time after nuclear contact. The results depend on the choice of initial conditions which, so far, have been very uncertain. I describe a formula based on the McLerran-Venugopalan model to compute the initial energy density. The soft gluon fields produced immediately after the overlap of the nuclei can be expanded as a power series of the proper time t. Solving Yang-Mills equations with color current conservation can give us the analytical formulas for the fields. The local color charges on the transverse plane are stochastic variables and have to be taken care of by random walks. It is found that the fields are mainly longitudinal at early time. The initial energy densities are computed both for RHIC and LHC.

Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

2018-01-01

Modeling net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at the regional scale with land surface models (LSMs) is relevant for the estimation of regional carbon balances, but studies on it are very limited. Furthermore, it is essential to better understand and quantify the uncertainty of LSMs in order to improve them. An important key variable in this respect is the prognostic leaf area index (LAI), which is very sensitive to forcing data and strongly affects the modeled NEE. We applied the Community Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) to the Rur catchment in western Germany and compared estimated and default ecological key parameters for modeling carbon fluxes and LAI. The parameter estimates were previously estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach DREAM(zs) for four of the most widespread plant functional types in the catchment. It was found that the catchment-scale annual NEE was strongly positive with default parameter values but negative (and closer to observations) with the estimated values. Thus, the estimation of CLM parameters with local NEE observations can be highly relevant when determining regional carbon balances. To obtain a more comprehensive picture of model uncertainty, CLM ensembles were set up with perturbed meteorological input and uncertain initial states in addition to uncertain parameters. C3 grass and C3 crops were particularly sensitive to the perturbed meteorological input, which resulted in a strong increase in the standard deviation of the annual NEE sum (σ ∑ NEE) for the different ensemble members from ˜ 2 to 3 g C m-2 yr-1 (with uncertain parameters) to ˜ 45 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 grass) and ˜ 75 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 crops) with perturbed forcings. This increase in uncertainty is related to the impact of the meteorological forcings on leaf onset and senescence, and enhanced/reduced drought stress related to perturbation of precipitation. The NEE uncertainty for the forest plant functional type (PFT) was considerably lower (σ ∑ NEE ˜ 4.0-13.5 g C m-2 yr-1 with perturbed parameters, meteorological forcings and initial states). We conclude that LAI and NEE uncertainty with CLM is clearly underestimated if uncertain meteorological forcings and initial states are not taken into account.

Chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems using composite nonlinear feedback based integral sliding mode control.

PubMed

Mobayen, Saleh

2018-06-01

This paper proposes a combination of composite nonlinear feedback and integral sliding mode techniques for fast and accurate chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems with Lipschitz nonlinear functions, time-varying delays and disturbances. The composite nonlinear feedback method allows accurate following of the master chaotic system and the integral sliding mode control provides invariance property which rejects the perturbations and preserves the stability of the closed-loop system. Based on the Lyapunov- Krasovskii stability theory and linear matrix inequalities, a novel sufficient condition is offered for the chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems. This method not only guarantees the robustness against perturbations and time-delays, but also eliminates reaching phase and avoids chattering problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the suggested procedure leads to a great control performance. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes

Treesearch

Yongguang Zhang; M. Susan Moran; Mark A. Nearing; Guillermo E. Ponce Campos; Alfredo R. Huete; Anthony R. Buda; David D. Bosch; Stacey A. Gunter; Stanley G. Kitchen; W. Henry McNab; Jack A. Morgan; Mitchel P. McClaran; Diane S. Montoya; Debra P.C. Peters; Patrick J. Starks

2013-01-01

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated the effects of these climatic conditions on aboveground net primary...

Decision support systems for plant disease and insect management in commercial nurseries in the Midwest: A perspective review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Decision-support systems (DDSs) are techniques that help decision makers utilize models to solve problems under complex and uncertain conditions. Predicting conditions that warrant intervention is a key tenet of the concept of integrated pest management (IPM) with the use of expert systems and pest ...

Neural-network-based online HJB solution for optimal robust guaranteed cost control of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Liu, Derong; Wang, Ding; Wang, Fei-Yue; Li, Hongliang; Yang, Xiong

2014-12-01

In this paper, the infinite horizon optimal robust guaranteed cost control of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems is investigated using neural-network-based online solution of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. By establishing an appropriate bounded function and defining a modified cost function, the optimal robust guaranteed cost control problem is transformed into an optimal control problem. It can be observed that the optimal cost function of the nominal system is nothing but the optimal guaranteed cost of the original uncertain system. A critic neural network is constructed to facilitate the solution of the modified HJB equation corresponding to the nominal system. More importantly, an additional stabilizing term is introduced for helping to verify the stability, which reinforces the updating process of the weight vector and reduces the requirement of an initial stabilizing control. The uniform ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system is analyzed by using the Lyapunov approach as well. Two simulation examples are provided to verify the effectiveness of the present control approach.

Uncertain deduction and conditional reasoning

PubMed Central

Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Thompson, Valerie A.; Over, David E.

2015-01-01

There has been a paradigm shift in the psychology of deductive reasoning. Many researchers no longer think it is appropriate to ask people to assume premises and decide what necessarily follows, with the results evaluated by binary extensional logic. Most every day and scientific inference is made from more or less confidently held beliefs and not assumptions, and the relevant normative standard is Bayesian probability theory. We argue that the study of “uncertain deduction” should directly ask people to assign probabilities to both premises and conclusions, and report an experiment using this method. We assess this reasoning by two Bayesian metrics: probabilistic validity and coherence according to probability theory. On both measures, participants perform above chance in conditional reasoning, but they do much better when statements are grouped as inferences, rather than evaluated in separate tasks. PMID:25904888

Robust passivity analysis for discrete-time recurrent neural networks with mixed delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chuan-Kuei; Shu, Yu-Jeng; Chang, Koan-Yuh; Shou, Ho-Nien; Lu, Chien-Yu

2015-02-01

This article considers the robust passivity analysis for a class of discrete-time recurrent neural networks (DRNNs) with mixed time-delays and uncertain parameters. The mixed time-delays that consist of both the discrete time-varying and distributed time-delays in a given range are presented, and the uncertain parameters are norm-bounded. The activation functions are assumed to be globally Lipschitz continuous. Based on new bounding technique and appropriate type of Lyapunov functional, a sufficient condition is investigated to guarantee the existence of the desired robust passivity condition for the DRNNs, which can be derived in terms of a family of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Some free-weighting matrices are introduced to reduce the conservatism of the criterion by using the bounding technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability.

Migration-driven aggregation behaviors in job markets with direct foreign immigration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruoyan

2014-09-01

This Letter introduces a new set of rate equations describing migration-driven aggregation behaviors in job markets with direct foreign immigration. We divide the job market into two groups: native and immigrant. A reversible migration of jobs exists in both groups. The interaction between two groups creates a birth and death rate for the native job market. We find out that regardless of initial conditions or the rates, the total number of cities with either job markets decreases. This indicates a more concentrated job markets for both groups in the future. On the other hand, jobs available for immigrants increase over time but the ones for natives are uncertain. The native job markets can either expand or shrink or remain constant due to combined effects of birth and death rates. Finally, we test our analytical results with the population data of all counties in the US from 2000 to 2011.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuzmin, Stanislav L.; Wesolowski, Michal J.; Duley, Walter W.

A new type of metal-organic composition consisting of clusters of nanoparticles has been synthesised by laser irradiation of metallocene/benzene solutions. The metallocene molecules in this reaction become the source of the metal. Exposure to high-energy femtosecond laser pulses dehydrogenate benzene molecules and initiate the high-temperature high-pressure conditions that results in the synthesis of new materials. Irradiation experiments have been carried out on ferrocene/benzene and on other solutions. With ferrocene the synthesis of a new compound has been confirmed by X-ray powder diffraction as the peaks detected do not correspond to any known substance in the Crystallography Open Database. Theoretical simulationmore » of the periodic structure of this new carbide predicts that it has hexagonal symmetry and a unit cell with a = 3.2A and c =2.8A. The exact structure is still uncertain but may be determined from scanning tunneling microscope (STM) studies.« less

Fuzzy Adaptive Output Feedback Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems With Prescribed Performance.

PubMed

Zhang, Jin-Xi; Yang, Guang-Hong

2018-05-01

This paper investigates the tracking control problem for a family of strict-feedback systems in the presence of unknown nonlinearities and immeasurable system states. A low-complexity adaptive fuzzy output feedback control scheme is proposed, based on a backstepping method. In the control design, a fuzzy adaptive state observer is first employed to estimate the unmeasured states. Then, a novel error transformation approach together with a new modification mechanism is introduced to guarantee the finite-time convergence of the output error to a predefined region and ensure the closed-loop stability. Compared with the existing methods, the main advantages of our approach are that: 1) without using extra command filters or auxiliary dynamic surface control techniques, the problem of explosion of complexity can still be addressed and 2) the design procedures are independent of the initial conditions. Finally, two practical examples are performed to further illustrate the above theoretic findings.

Robust design of feedback feed-forward iterative learning control based on 2D system theory for linear uncertain systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhifu; Hu, Yueming; Li, Di

2016-08-01

For a class of linear discrete-time uncertain systems, a feedback feed-forward iterative learning control (ILC) scheme is proposed, which is comprised of an iterative learning controller and two current iteration feedback controllers. The iterative learning controller is used to improve the performance along the iteration direction and the feedback controllers are used to improve the performance along the time direction. First of all, the uncertain feedback feed-forward ILC system is presented by an uncertain two-dimensional Roesser model system. Then, two robust control schemes are proposed. One can ensure that the feedback feed-forward ILC system is bounded-input bounded-output stable along time direction, and the other can ensure that the feedback feed-forward ILC system is asymptotically stable along time direction. Both schemes can guarantee the system is robust monotonically convergent along the iteration direction. Third, the robust convergent sufficient conditions are given, which contains a linear matrix inequality (LMI). Moreover, the LMI can be used to determine the gain matrix of the feedback feed-forward iterative learning controller. Finally, the simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

7 CFR 27.34 - Classification procedure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COMMODITY STANDARDS AND STANDARD CONTAINER... when light or other conditions make uncertain the accuracy of the results to be obtained. ...

Evidence-based risk assessment and communication: a new global dengue-risk map for travellers and clinicians#

PubMed Central

Lash, R. Ryan; Johansson, Michael A.; Sharp, Tyler M.; Henry, Ronnie; Brady, Oliver J.; Sotir, Mark J.; Hay, Simon I.; Margolis, Harold S.; Brunette, Gary W.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: International travel can expose travellers to pathogens not commonly found in their countries of residence, like dengue virus. Travellers and the clinicians who advise and treat them have unique needs for understanding the geographic extent of risk for dengue. Specifically, they should assess the need for prevention measures before travel and ensure appropriate treatment of illness post-travel. Previous dengue-risk maps published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Yellow Book lacked specificity, as there was a binary (risk, no risk) classification. We developed a process to compile evidence, evaluate it and apply more informative risk classifications. Methods: We collected more than 839 observations from official reports, ProMED reports and published scientific research for the period 2005–2014. We classified each location as frequent/continuous risk if there was evidence of more than 10 dengue cases in at least three of the previous 10 years. For locations that did not fit this criterion, we classified locations as sporadic/uncertain risk if the location had evidence of at least one locally acquired dengue case during the last 10 years. We used expert opinion in limited instances to augment available data in areas where data were sparse. Results: Initial categorizations classified 134 areas as frequent/continuous and 140 areas as sporadic/uncertain. CDC subject matter experts reviewed all initial frequent/continuous and sporadic/uncertain categorizations and the previously uncategorized areas. From this review, most categorizations stayed the same; however, 11 categorizations changed from the initial determinations. Conclusions: These new risk classifications enable detailed consideration of dengue risk, with clearer meaning and a direct link to the evidence that supports the specific classification. Since many infectious diseases have dynamic risk, strong geographical heterogeneities and varying data quality and availability, using this approach for other diseases can improve the accuracy, clarity and transparency of risk communication. PMID:27625400

Evidence-based risk assessment and communication: a new global dengue-risk map for travellers and clinicians.

PubMed

Jentes, Emily S; Lash, R Ryan; Johansson, Michael A; Sharp, Tyler M; Henry, Ronnie; Brady, Oliver J; Sotir, Mark J; Hay, Simon I; Margolis, Harold S; Brunette, Gary W

2016-06-01

International travel can expose travellers to pathogens not commonly found in their countries of residence, like dengue virus. Travellers and the clinicians who advise and treat them have unique needs for understanding the geographic extent of risk for dengue. Specifically, they should assess the need for prevention measures before travel and ensure appropriate treatment of illness post-travel. Previous dengue-risk maps published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Yellow Book lacked specificity, as there was a binary (risk, no risk) classification. We developed a process to compile evidence, evaluate it and apply more informative risk classifications. We collected more than 839 observations from official reports, ProMED reports and published scientific research for the period 2005-2014. We classified each location as frequent/continuous risk if there was evidence of more than 10 dengue cases in at least three of the previous 10 years. For locations that did not fit this criterion, we classified locations as sporadic/uncertain risk if the location had evidence of at least one locally acquired dengue case during the last 10 years. We used expert opinion in limited instances to augment available data in areas where data were sparse. Initial categorizations classified 134 areas as frequent/continuous and 140 areas as sporadic/uncertain. CDC subject matter experts reviewed all initial frequent/continuous and sporadic/uncertain categorizations and the previously uncategorized areas. From this review, most categorizations stayed the same; however, 11 categorizations changed from the initial determinations. These new risk classifications enable detailed consideration of dengue risk, with clearer meaning and a direct link to the evidence that supports the specific classification. Since many infectious diseases have dynamic risk, strong geographical heterogeneities and varying data quality and availability, using this approach for other diseases can improve the accuracy, clarity and transparency of risk communication. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Effective Strategy Formation Models for Inventory Management under the Conditions of Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kosorukov, Oleg Anatolyevich; Sviridova, Olga Alexandrovna

2015-01-01

The article deals with the problem of modeling the commodity flows management of a trading company under the conditions of uncertain demand and long supply. The Author presents an analysis of modifications of diversified inventory management system with random demand, for which one can find the optimal inventory control strategies, including those…

Does message framing predict willingness to participate in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial: an application of Prospect Theory.

PubMed

Evangeli, Michael; Kafaar, Zuhayr; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie; Bullemor-Day, Philippa

2013-01-01

It is vital that enough participants are willing to participate in clinical trials to test HIV vaccines adequately. It is, therefore, necessary to explore what affects peoples' willingness to participate (WTP) in such trials. Studies have only examined individual factors associated with WTP and not the effect of messages about trial participation on potential participants (e.g., whether losses or gains are emphasized, or whether the outcome is certain or uncertain). This study explores whether the effects of message framing on WTP in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial are consistent with Prospect Theory. This theory suggests that people are fundamentally risk averse and that (1) under conditions of low risk and high certainty, gain-framed messages will be influential (2) under conditions of high risk and low certainty, loss-framed messages will be influential. This cross-sectional study recruited 283 HIV-negative students from a South African university who were given a questionnaire that contained matched certain gain-framed, certain loss-framed, uncertain gain-framed, and uncertain loss-framed statements based on common barriers and facilitators of WTP. Participants were asked to rate how likely each statement was to result in their participation in a hypothetical preventative HIV vaccine trial. Consistent with Prospect Theory predictions, for certain outcomes, gain-framed messages were more likely to result in WTP than loss-framed messages. Inconsistent with predictions, loss-framed message were not more likely to be related to WTP for uncertain outcomes than gain-framed messages. Older students were less likely to express their WTP across the different message frames. Recruitment for HIV vaccine trials should pay attention to how messages about the trial are presented to potential participants.

[Treatment of aerobic vaginitis and clinically uncertain causes of vulvovaginal discomfort].

PubMed

Cepický, P; Malina, J; Kuzelová, M

2003-11-01

The treatment of clinically uncertain conditions of vaginal discomforts with a mixed preparation of nifuratel + nystatin (Macmiror complex) and the relation of uncertain conditions to aerobic vaginitis. A prospective study. Gynecology-Obstetrics Outpatient Department LEVRET Ltd., AescuLab Ltd., Laboratory of Microbiology, Prague. 50 women with vaginal discomfort, causes of which had not been clarified by gynecological examination, determination of pH and the amine test, were examined by vaginal smears using microscopy. The results were evaluated in relation to aerobic vaginitis in a pure form or in combination with other nosological units. The authors also evaluated results of therapy by oral nifuratel (Macmiror tbl) 3 x 200 mg daily and a vaginal combined preparation containing nifuratel 500 mg + nystatin 200 kIU (Macmiror complex 500 glo vag) for the period of 7 days. In 50 women candida was demonstrated 24 times, presence of key cells 11 times, lactobacillus nine times with more than 50 in the field, six women were affected by aerobic vaginitis. In all these cases the pH was 4.8 or higher, leukocytes were significantly represented in all cases (> 15 in the field), as well as gram-negative bacteria and/or cocci (> 30 in the field), indicating a combined picture of mycosis, anaerobic vaginosis or lactobacillosis with aerobic vaginitis. The therapy was successful in all cases, the relapse of complaints during one month occurred in three cases. Aerobic vaginitis in a pure form or with anaerobic vaginosis, mycosis or lactobacillosis is frequently concealed under clinically uncertain pictures of vulvo-vaginal discomfort. The therapy by a combination of nifurated 3 x 200 mg orally together with the combined vaginal preparation nifuratel 500 mg + nystatin 200 kIU for the period of 7 days exerts high effect and a low number of relapses.

Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

2014-12-01

Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles

2014-03-01

A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing themore » range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.« less

On the modeling of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariano, A. J.; Kourafalou, V. H.; Srinivasan, A.; Kang, H.; Halliwell, G. R.; Ryan, E. H.; Roffer, M.

2011-09-01

Two oil particle trajectory forecasting systems were developed and applied to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Both systems use ocean current fields from high-resolution numerical ocean circulation model simulations, Lagrangian stochastic models to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability to advect oil particles, and Monte Carlo-based schemes for representing uncertain biochemical and physical processes. The first system assumes two-dimensional particle motion at the ocean surface, the oil is in one state, and the particle removal is modeled as a Monte Carlo process parameterized by a one number removal rate. Oil particles are seeded using both initial conditions based on observations and particles released at the location of the Maconda well. The initial conditions (ICs) of oil particle location for the two-dimensional surface oil trajectory forecasts are based on a fusing of all available information including satellite-based analyses. The resulting oil map is digitized into a shape file within which a polygon filling software generates longitude and latitude with variable particle density depending on the amount of oil present in the observations for the IC. The more complex system assumes three (light, medium, heavy) states for the oil, each state has a different removal rate in the Monte Carlo process, three-dimensional particle motion, and a particle size-dependent oil mixing model. Simulations from the two-dimensional forecast system produced results that qualitatively agreed with the uncertain "truth" fields. These simulations validated the use of our Monte Carlo scheme for representing oil removal by evaporation and other weathering processes. Eulerian velocity fields for predicting particle motion from data-assimilative models produced better particle trajectory distributions than a free running model with no data assimilation. Monte Carlo simulations of the three-dimensional oil particle trajectory, whose ensembles were generated by perturbing the size of the oil particles and the fraction in a given size range that are released at depth, the two largest unknowns in this problem. 36 realizations of the model were run with only subsurface oil releases. An average of these results yields that after three months, about 25% of the oil remains in the water column and that most of the oil is below 800 m.

The Influence of Soil Moisture and Wind on Rainfall Distribution and Intensity in Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, R. David; Lynn, Barry H.; Boone, Aaron; Tao, Wei-Kuo

1998-01-01

Land surface processes play a key role in water and energy budgets of the hydrological cycle. For example, the distribution of soil moisture will affect sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn may dramatically influence the location and intensity of precipitation. However, mean wind conditions also strongly influence the distribution of precipitation. The relative importance of soil moisture and wind on rainfall location and intensity remains uncertain. Here, we examine the influence of soil moisture distribution and wind distribution on precipitation in the Florida peninsula using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model Coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data collected on 27 July 1991 in central Florida during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). The idealized numerical experiments consider a block of land (the Florida peninsula) bordered on the east and on the west by ocean. The initial soil moisture distribution is derived from an offline PLACE simulation, and the initial environmental wind profile is determined from the CaPE sounding network. Using the factor separation technique, the precise contribution of soil moisture and wind to rainfall distribution and intensity is determined.

Adaptive optimization as a design and management methodology for coal-mining enterprise in uncertain and volatile market environment - the conceptual framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhalchenko, V. V.; Rubanik, Yu T.

2016-10-01

The work is devoted to the problem of cost-effective adaptation of coal mines to the volatile and uncertain market conditions. Conceptually it can be achieved through alignment of the dynamic characteristics of the coal mining system and power spectrum of market demand for coal product. In practical terms, this ensures the viability and competitiveness of coal mines. Transformation of dynamic characteristics is to be done by changing the structure of production system as well as corporate, logistics and management processes. The proposed methods and algorithms of control are aimed at the development of the theoretical foundations of adaptive optimization as basic methodology for coal mine enterprise management in conditions of high variability and uncertainty of economic and natural environment. Implementation of the proposed methodology requires a revision of the basic principles of open coal mining enterprises design.

H∞ control for uncertain linear system over networks with Bernoulli data dropout and actuator saturation.

PubMed

Yu, Jimin; Yang, Chenchen; Tang, Xiaoming; Wang, Ping

2018-03-01

This paper investigates the H ∞ control problems for uncertain linear system over networks with random communication data dropout and actuator saturation. The random data dropout process is modeled by a Bernoulli distributed white sequence with a known conditional probability distribution and the actuator saturation is confined in a convex hull by introducing a group of auxiliary matrices. By constructing a quadratic Lyapunov function, effective conditions for the state feedback-based H ∞ controller and the observer-based H ∞ controller are proposed in the form of non-convex matrix inequalities to take the random data dropout and actuator saturation into consideration simultaneously, and the problem of non-convex feasibility is solved by applying cone complementarity linearization (CCL) procedure. Finally, two simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new design techniques. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

She's My Second Mum: Young People Building Relationships in Uncertain Circumstances

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Philip, Kate

2008-01-01

Youth mentoring has become a key element of UK youth policy in recent years and is now integrated into a range of policy initiatives aiming to tackle social exclusion. It is claimed by proponents of planned mentoring that the introduction of a mentor enhances resilience through the provision of a consistent, caring relationship that transcends…

The Influence of Item Response Indecision on the Self-Directed Search

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sampson, James P., Jr.; Shy, Jonathan D.; Hartley, Sarah Lucas; Reardon, Robert C.; Peterson, Gary W.

2009-01-01

Students (N = 247) responded to Self-Directed Search (SDS) per the standard response format and were also instructed to record a question mark (?) for items about which they were uncertain (item response indecision [IRI]). The initial responses of the 114 participants with a (?) were then reversed and a second SDS summary code was obtained and…

Spatial synchrony propagates through a forest food web via consumer-resource interactions

Treesearch

Kyle J. ​Haynes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Todd M. Fearer; Guiming Wang; Gary W. Norman; Derek M. Johnson

2009-01-01

In many study systems, populations fluctuate synchronously across large regions. Several mechanisms have been advanced to explain this, but their importance in nature is often uncertain. Theoretical studies suggest that spatial synchrony initiated in one species through Moran effects may propagate among trophically linked species, but evidence for this in nature is...

Coupled hydrological and geochemical process evolution at the Landscape Evolution Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troch, P. A. A.

2015-12-01

Predictions of hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to natural and anthropogenic forcing at the landscape scale are highly uncertain due to the effects of heterogeneity on the scaling of reaction, flow and transport phenomena. The physical, chemical and biological structures and processes controlling reaction, flow and transport in natural landscapes interact at multiple space and time scales and are difficult to quantify. The current paradigm of hydrological and geochemical theory is that process descriptions derived from observations at small scales in controlled systems can be applied to predict system response at much larger scales, as long as some 'equivalent' or 'effective' values of the scale-dependent parameters can be identified. Furthermore, natural systems evolve in time in a way that is hard to observe in short-run laboratory experiments or in natural landscapes with unknown initial conditions and time-variant forcing. The spatial structure of flow pathways along hillslopes determines the rate, extent and distribution of geochemical reactions (and biological colonization) that drive weathering, the transport and precipitation of solutes and sediments, and the further evolution of soil structure. The resulting evolution of structures and processes, in turn, produces spatiotemporal variability of hydrological states and flow pathways. There is thus a need for experimental research to improve our understanding of hydrology-biogeochemistry interactions and feedbacks at appropriate spatial scales larger than laboratory soil column experiments. Such research is complicated in real-world settings because of poorly constrained impacts of initial conditions, climate variability, ecosystems dynamics, and geomorphic evolution. The Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO) at Biosphere 2 offers a unique research facility that allows real-time observations of incipient hydrologic and biogeochemical response under well-constrained initial conditions and climate forcing. The LEO allows to close the water, carbon and energy budgets at hillslope scales, thereby enabling elucidation of the tight coupling between the time water spends along subsurface flow paths and geochemical weathering reactions, including the feedbacks between flow and pedogenesis.

Stochastic Ocean Predictions with Dynamically-Orthogonal Primitive Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramani, D. N.; Haley, P., Jr.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.

2017-12-01

The coastal ocean is a prime example of multiscale nonlinear fluid dynamics. Ocean fields in such regions are complex and intermittent with unstationary heterogeneous statistics. Due to the limited measurements, there are multiple sources of uncertainties, including the initial conditions, boundary conditions, forcing, parameters, and even the model parameterizations and equations themselves. For efficient and rigorous quantification and prediction of these uncertainities, the stochastic Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) PDEs for a primitive equation ocean modeling system with a nonlinear free-surface are derived and numerical schemes for their space-time integration are obtained. Detailed numerical studies with idealized-to-realistic regional ocean dynamics are completed. These include consistency checks for the numerical schemes and comparisons with ensemble realizations. As an illustrative example, we simulate the 4-d multiscale uncertainty in the Middle Atlantic/New York Bight region during the months of Jan to Mar 2017. To provide intitial conditions for the uncertainty subspace, uncertainties in the region were objectively analyzed using historical data. The DO primitive equations were subsequently integrated in space and time. The probability distribution function (pdf) of the ocean fields is compared to in-situ, remote sensing, and opportunity data collected during the coincident POSYDON experiment. Results show that our probabilistic predictions had skill and are 3- to 4- orders of magnitude faster than classic ensemble schemes.

Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

2016-10-01

An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

When, not if: The inescapability of an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Ballard, T.

2014-12-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of most scientific endeavours, and many political decisions must be made in the presence of scientific uncertainty. In the case of climate change, there is evidence that greater scientific uncertainty increases the risk associated with the impact of climate change. Scientific uncertainty thus provides an impetus for cutting emissions rather than delaying action. In contrast to those normative considerations, uncertainty is frequently cited in political and public discourse as a reason to delay mitigation. We examine ways in which this gap between public and scientific understanding of uncertainty can be bridged. In particular, we sought ways to communicate uncertainty in a way that better calibrates people's risk perceptions with the projected impact of climate change. We report two behavioural experiments in which uncertainty about the future was expressed either as outcome uncertainty or temporal uncertainty. The conventional presentation of uncertainty involves uncertainty about an outcome at a given time—for example, the range of possible sea level rise (say 50cm +/- 20cm) by a certain date. An alternative presentation of the same situation presents a certain outcome ("sea levels will rise by 50cm") but places the uncertainty into the time of arrival ("this may occur as early as 2040 or as late as 2080"). We presented participants with a series of statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification, and a decrease in artic sea ice. In the uncertain magnitude condition, the statements and graphs reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected magnitude and the mean projected time of arrival. In the uncertain time of arrival condition, they reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival and the mean projected magnitude. The results show that when uncertainty was presented as uncertain time of arrival rather than an uncertain outcome, people expressed greater concern about the projected outcomes. In a further experiment involving repeated "games" with a simulated economy, we similarly showed that people allocate more resources to mitigation if there is uncertainty about the timing of an adverse event rather than about the magnitude of its impact.

Design of sliding-mode observer for a class of uncertain neutral stochastic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhen; Zhao, Lin; Zhu, Quanmin; Gao, Cunchen

2017-05-01

The problem of robust ? control for a class of uncertain neutral stochastic systems (NSS) is investigated by utilising the sliding-mode observer (SMO) technique. This paper presents a novel observer and integral-type sliding-surface design, based on which a new sufficient condition guaranteeing the resultant sliding-mode dynamics (SMDs) to be mean-square exponentially stable with a prescribed level of ? performance is derived. Then, an adaptive reaching motion controller is synthesised to lead the system to the predesigned sliding surface in finite-time almost surely. Finally, two illustrative examples are exhibited to verify the validity and superiority of the developed scheme.

Is restoring an ecosystem good for your health?

PubMed

Speldewinde, P C; Slaney, D; Weinstein, P

2015-01-01

It is well known that the degradation of ecosystems can have serious impacts on human health. There is currently a knowledge gap on what impact restoring ecosystems has on human health. In restoring ecosystems there is a drive to restore the functionality of ecosystems rather than restoring ecosystems to 'pristine' condition. Even so, the complete restoration of all ecosystem functions is not necessarily possible. Given the uncertain trajectory of the ecosystem during the ecosystem restoration process the impact of the restoration on human health is also uncertain. Even with this uncertainty, the restoration of ecosystems for human health is still a necessity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Archean Subduction Initiation from Continental Spreading with a Free-Surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, A.; Thielmann, M.; Golabek, G.

2017-12-01

Earth is the only planet known to have plate tectonics, however the onset of plate tectonics and Earth's early tectonic environment are highly uncertain. Modern plate tectonics are characterized by the sinking of dense lithosphere at subduction zones; however this process may not have been feasible if Earth's interior was hotter in the Archean, resulting in thicker and more buoyant oceanic lithosphere than observed at present [van Hunen and van den Berg, 2008]. Previous studies have proposed gravitational spreading of early continents at passive margins as a mechanism to trigger early episodes of plate subduction using numerical simulations with a free-slip upper boundary condition [Rey et al., 2014]. This study utilizes 2D thermo-mechanical numerical experiments using the finite element code MVEP2 [Kaus, 2010; Thielmann et al., 2014] to investigate the viability of this mechanism for subduction initiation in an Archean mantle for both free-slip and free-surface models. Radiogenic heating, strain weakening, and eclogitization were systematically implemented to determine critical factors for modeling subduction initiation. In free-slip models, results show episodes of continent spreading and subduction initiation of oceanic lithosphere for low limiting yield stresses (100-150 MPa) and increasing continent width with no dependency on radiogenic heating, strain weakening, or eclogitization. For models with a free-surface, subduction initiation was observed at low limiting yield stresses (100-225 MPa) with increasing continent width and only in models with eclogitization. Initial lithospheric stress states were studied as a function of density and viscosity ratios between continent and oceanic lithosphere, and results indicate the magnitude of lithospheric stresses increases with increasing continental buoyancy. This work suggests continent spreading may trigger episodes of subduction in models with a free-surface with critical factors being low limiting yield stresses and eclogitization.

Considerations of Environmentally Relevant Test Conditions for Improved Evaluation of Ecological Hazards of Engineered Nanomaterials

EPA Science Inventory

Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are increasingly entering the environment with uncertain consequences including potential ecological effects. Various research communities view differently whether ecotoxicological testing of ENMs should be conducted using environmentally relevant ...

Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

Sustainability Based Decision Making

EPA Science Inventory

With sustainability as the “true north” for EPA research, a premium is placed on the ability to make decisions under highly complex and uncertain conditions. The primary challenge is reconciling disparate criteria toward credible and defensible decisions. Making decisions on on...

a New Model for Fuzzy Personalized Route Planning Using Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadi, S.; Houshyaripour, A. H.

2017-09-01

This paper proposes a new model for personalized route planning under uncertain condition. Personalized routing, involves different sources of uncertainty. These uncertainties can be raised from user's ambiguity about their preferences, imprecise criteria values and modelling process. The proposed model uses Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation Analytical Hierarchical Process (FLPRAHP) to analyse user's preferences under uncertainty. Routing is a multi-criteria task especially in transportation networks, where the users wish to optimize their routes based on different criteria. However, due to the lake of knowledge about the preferences of different users and uncertainties available in the criteria values, we propose a new personalized fuzzy routing method based on the fuzzy ranking using center of gravity. The model employed FLPRAHP method to aggregate uncertain criteria values regarding uncertain user's preferences while improve consistency with least possible comparisons. An illustrative example presents the effectiveness and capability of the proposed model to calculate best personalize route under fuzziness and uncertainty.

Event-triggered decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant control of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with actuator failures.

PubMed

Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

2018-06-01

This paper investigates the event-triggered decentralized adaptive tracking problem of a class of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with unexpected actuator failures. It is assumed that local control signals are transmitted to local actuators with time-varying faults whenever predefined conditions for triggering events are satisfied. Compared with the existing control-input-based event-triggering strategy for adaptive control of uncertain nonlinear systems, the aim of this paper is to propose a tracking-error-based event-triggering strategy in the decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant tracking framework. The proposed approach can relax drastic changes in control inputs caused by actuator faults in the existing triggering strategy. The stability of the proposed event-triggering control system is analyzed in the Lyapunov sense. Finally, simulation comparisons of the proposed and existing approaches are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical result in the presence of actuator faults. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust preview control for a class of uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Li, Li; Liao, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This paper proposes a concept of robust preview tracking control for uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay. Firstly, a model transformation is employed for an uncertain discrete system with time-varying delay. Then, the auxiliary variables related to the system state and input are introduced to derive an augmented error system that includes future information on the reference signal. This leads to the tracking problem being transformed into a regulator problem. Finally, for the augmented error system, a sufficient condition of asymptotic stability is derived and the preview controller design method is proposed based on the scaled small gain theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. The method proposed in this paper not only solves the difficulty problem of applying the difference operator to the time-varying matrices but also simplifies the structure of the augmented error system. The numerical simulation example also illustrates the effectiveness of the results presented in the paper. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IONIZATION EQUILIBRIUM TIMESCALES IN COLLISIONAL PLASMAS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Randall K.; Hughes, John P., E-mail: rsmith@cfa.harvard.ed, E-mail: jph@physics.rutgers.ed

2010-07-20

Astrophysical shocks or bursts from a photoionizing source can disturb the typical collisional plasma found in galactic interstellar media or the intergalactic medium. The spectrum emitted by this plasma contains diagnostics that have been used to determine the time since the disturbing event, although this determination becomes uncertain as the elements in the plasma return to ionization equilibrium. A general solution for the equilibrium timescale for each element arises from the elegant eigenvector method of solution to the problem of a non-equilibrium plasma described by Masai and Hughes and Helfand. In general, the ionization evolution of an element Z inmore » a constant electron temperature plasma is given by a coupled set of Z + 1 first-order differential equations. However, they can be recast as Z uncoupled first-order differential equations using an eigenvector basis for the system. The solution is then Z separate exponential functions, with the time constants given by the eigenvalues of the rate matrix. The smallest of these eigenvalues gives the scale of the slowest return to equilibrium independent of the initial conditions, while conversely the largest eigenvalue is the scale of the fastest change in the ion population. These results hold for an ionizing plasma, a recombining plasma, or even a plasma with random initial conditions, and will allow users of these diagnostics to determine directly if their best-fit result significantly limits the timescale since a disturbance or is so close to equilibrium as to include an arbitrarily long time.« less

When do letter features migrate? A boundary condition for feature-integration theory.

PubMed

Butler, B E; Mewhort, D J; Browse, R A

1991-01-01

Feature-integration theory postulates that a lapse of attention will allow letter features to change position and to recombine as illusory conjunctions (Treisman & Paterson, 1984). To study such errors, we used a set of uppercase letters known to yield illusory conjunctions in each of three tasks. The first, a bar-probe task, showed whole-character mislocations but not errors based on feature migration and recombination. The second, a two-alternative forced-choice detection task, allowed subjects to focus on the presence or absence of subletter features and showed illusory conjunctions based on feature migration and recombination. The third was also a two-alternative forced-choice detection task, but we manipulated the subjects' knowledge of the shape of the stimuli: In the case-certain condition, the stimuli were always in uppercase, but in the case-uncertain condition, the stimuli could appear in either upper- or lowercase. Subjects in the case-certain condition produced illusory conjunctions based on feature recombination, whereas subjects in the case-uncertain condition did not. The results suggest that when subjects can view the stimuli as feature groups, letter features regroup as illusory conjunctions; when subjects encode the stimuli as letters, whole items may be mislocated, but subletter features are not. Thus, illusory conjunctions reflect the subject's processing strategy, rather than the architecture of the visual system.

Deduction with Uncertain Conditionals

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-04-01

operations but a very different fourth operation, again meant as an implication. As mentioned by Gilio and Scozzafava [19], in 1985 Bruno and Gilio also...nonmonotonic consequence relationships, IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man and Cybernetics 24 (12) (1994) 1724-1740. [19] A. Gilio , R. Scozzafava

A global parallel model based design of experiments method to minimize model output uncertainty.

PubMed

Bazil, Jason N; Buzzard, Gregory T; Rundell, Ann E

2012-03-01

Model-based experiment design specifies the data to be collected that will most effectively characterize the biological system under study. Existing model-based design of experiment algorithms have primarily relied on Fisher Information Matrix-based methods to choose the best experiment in a sequential manner. However, these are largely local methods that require an initial estimate of the parameter values, which are often highly uncertain, particularly when data is limited. In this paper, we provide an approach to specify an informative sequence of multiple design points (parallel design) that will constrain the dynamical uncertainty of the biological system responses to within experimentally detectable limits as specified by the estimated experimental noise. The method is based upon computationally efficient sparse grids and requires only a bounded uncertain parameter space; it does not rely upon initial parameter estimates. The design sequence emerges through the use of scenario trees with experimental design points chosen to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted dynamics of the measurable responses of the system. The algorithm was illustrated herein using a T cell activation model for three problems that ranged in dimension from 2D to 19D. The results demonstrate that it is possible to extract useful information from a mathematical model where traditional model-based design of experiments approaches most certainly fail. The experiments designed via this method fully constrain the model output dynamics to within experimentally resolvable limits. The method is effective for highly uncertain biological systems characterized by deterministic mathematical models with limited data sets. Also, it is highly modular and can be modified to include a variety of methodologies such as input design and model discrimination.

Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Maynard-Zhang, Pedrito; Kiper, James D.

2005-01-01

One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

Initial Results of Multigene Panel Testing for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer and Lynch Syndrome.

PubMed

Howarth, Dt R; Lum, Sharon S; Esquivel, Pamela; Garberoglio, Carlos A; Senthil, Maheswari; Solomon, Naveenraj L

2015-10-01

Multigene panel testing for hereditary cancer risk has recently become commercially available; however, the impact of its use on patient care is undefined. We sought to evaluate results from implementation of panel testing in a multidisciplinary cancer center. We performed a retrospective review of consecutive patients undergoing genetic testing after initiating use of multigene panel testing at Loma Linda University Medical Center. From February 13 to August 25, 2014, 92 patients were referred for genetic testing based on National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines. Testing was completed in 90 patients. Overall, nine (10%) pathogenic mutations were identified: five BRCA1/2, and four in non-BRCA loci. Single-site testing identified one BRCA1 and one BRCA2 mutation. The remaining mutations were identified by use of panel testing for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer. There were 40 variants of uncertain significance identified in 34 patients. The use of panel testing more than doubled the identification rate of clinically significant pathogenic mutations that would have been missed with BRCA testing alone. The large number of variants of uncertain significance identified will require long-term follow-up for potential reclassification. Multigene panel testing provides additional information that may improve patient outcomes.

Connectivity-Preserving Approach for Distributed Adaptive Synchronized Tracking of Networked Uncertain Nonholonomic Mobile Robots.

PubMed

Yoo, Sung Jin; Park, Bong Seok

2017-09-06

This paper addresses a distributed connectivity-preserving synchronized tracking problem of multiple uncertain nonholonomic mobile robots with limited communication ranges. The information of the time-varying leader robot is assumed to be accessible to only a small fraction of follower robots. The main contribution of this paper is to introduce a new distributed nonlinear error surface for dealing with both the synchronized tracking and the preservation of the initial connectivity patterns among nonholonomic robots. Based on this nonlinear error surface, the recursive design methodology is presented to construct the approximation-based local adaptive tracking scheme at the robot dynamic level. Furthermore, a technical lemma is established to analyze the stability and the connectivity preservation of the total closed-loop control system in the Lyapunov sense. An example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Excessive workload, uncertain career opportunities and lack of funding are important barriers to recruiting and retaining primary care medical researchers: a qualitative interview study.

PubMed

Thomsen, Janus Laust; Jarbøl, Dorthe; Søndergaard, Jens

2006-10-01

Research activity in primary care has been steadily increasing, but is still insufficient and more researchers are needed. Many initiatives have been launched to recruit and retain primary care researchers, but only little is known about barriers and facilitators to a research career in primary care. To examine barriers and facilitators to recruiting and retaining primary care medical researchers. Semi-structured interviews with 33 primary care medical researchers, all medical doctors. We used a phenomenological approach to analysing the interviews. Important barriers to pursuing a research career in primary care were heavy workload, isolation at work, short-term funding and low salary. Important facilitators to attracting and retaining primary care researchers were the desire and opportunity to improve primary care, the flexible working conditions, the career opportunities, including the possibility of combining university-based research with clinical work and a friendly and competent research environment. Better strategies for recruiting and retaining researchers are a prerequisite for the development of primary care, and in future the main emphasis should be on working conditions, networking and mentoring. Studies including those primary care physicians who have chosen not to do research are highly needed.

Emergence of spontaneous anticipatory hand movements in a probabilistic environment

PubMed Central

Bruhn, Pernille

2013-01-01

In this article, we present a novel experimental approach to the study of anticipation in probabilistic cuing. We implemented a modified spatial cuing task in which participants made an anticipatory hand movement toward one of two probabilistic targets while the (x, y)-computer mouse coordinates of their hand movements were sampled. This approach allowed us to tap into anticipatory processes as they occurred, rather than just measuring their behavioral outcome through reaction time to the target. In different conditions, we varied the participants’ degree of certainty of the upcoming target position with probabilistic pre-cues. We found that participants initiated spontaneous anticipatory hand movements in all conditions, even when they had no information on the position of the upcoming target. However, participants’ hand position immediately before the target was affected by the degree of certainty concerning the target’s position. This modulation of anticipatory hand movements emerged rapidly in most participants as they encountered a constant probabilistic relation between a cue and an upcoming target position over the course of the experiment. Finally, we found individual differences in the way anticipatory behavior was modulated with an uncertain/neutral cue. Implications of these findings for probabilistic spatial cuing are discussed. PMID:23833694

Gestational Trophoblastic Disease: A Multimodality Imaging Approach with Impact on Diagnosis and Management

PubMed Central

Ramani, Subhash; Thakur, Meenkashi

2014-01-01

Gestational trophoblastic disease is a condition of uncertain etiology, comprised of hydatiform mole (complete and partial), invasive mole, choriocarcinoma, and placental site trophoblastic tumor. It arises from abnormal proliferation of trophoblastic tissue. Early diagnosis of gestational trophoblastic disease and its potential complications is important for timely and successful management of the condition with preservation of fertility. Initial diagnosis is based on a multimodality approach: encompassing clinical features, serial quantitative β-hCG titers, and pelvic ultrasonography. Pelvic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is sometimes used as a problem-solving tool to assess the depth of myometrial invasion and extrauterine disease spread in equivocal and complicated cases. Chest radiography, body computed tomography (CT), and brain MRI have been recommended as investigative tools for overall disease staging. Angiography has a role in management of disease complications and metastases. Efficacy of PET (positron emission tomography) and PET/CT in the evaluation of recurrent or metastatic disease has not been adequately investigated yet. This paper discusses the imaging features of gestational trophoblastic disease on various imaging modalities and the role of different imaging techniques in the diagnosis and management of this entity. PMID:25126425

Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model.

PubMed

Osthus, Dave; Hickmann, Kyle S; Caragea, Petruţa C; Higdon, Dave; Del Valle, Sara Y

2017-03-01

Seasonal influenza is a serious public health and societal problem due to its consequences resulting from absenteeism, hospitalizations, and deaths. The overall burden of influenza is captured by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's influenza-like illness network, which provides invaluable information about the current incidence. This information is used to provide decision support regarding prevention and response efforts. Despite the relatively rich surveillance data and the recurrent nature of seasonal influenza, forecasting the timing and intensity of seasonal influenza in the U.S. remains challenging because the form of the disease transmission process is uncertain, the disease dynamics are only partially observed, and the public health observations are noisy. Fitting a probabilistic state-space model motivated by a deterministic mathematical model [a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model] is a promising approach for forecasting seasonal influenza while simultaneously accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. A significant finding of this work is the importance of thoughtfully specifying the prior, as results critically depend on its specification. Our conditionally specified prior allows us to exploit known relationships between latent SIR initial conditions and parameters and functions of surveillance data. We demonstrate advantages of our approach relative to alternatives via a forecasting comparison using several forecast accuracy metrics.

Uncertainty during pain anticipation: the adaptive value of preparatory processes.

PubMed

Seidel, Eva-Maria; Pfabigan, Daniela M; Hahn, Andreas; Sladky, Ronald; Grahl, Arvina; Paul, Katharina; Kraus, Christoph; Küblböck, Martin; Kranz, Georg S; Hummer, Allan; Lanzenberger, Rupert; Windischberger, Christian; Lamm, Claus

2015-02-01

Anticipatory processes prepare the organism for upcoming experiences. The aim of this study was to investigate neural responses related to anticipation and processing of painful stimuli occurring with different levels of uncertainty. Twenty-five participants (13 females) took part in an electroencephalography and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment at separate times. A visual cue announced the occurrence of an electrical painful or nonpainful stimulus, delivered with certainty or uncertainty (50% chance), at some point during the following 15 s. During the first 2 s of the anticipation phase, a strong effect of uncertainty was reflected in a pronounced frontal stimulus-preceding negativity (SPN) and increased fMRI activation in higher visual processing areas. In the last 2 s before stimulus delivery, we observed stimulus-specific preparatory processes indicated by a centroparietal SPN and posterior insula activation that was most pronounced for the certain pain condition. Uncertain anticipation was associated with attentional control processes. During stimulation, the results revealed that unexpected painful stimuli produced the strongest activation in the affective pain processing network and a more pronounced offset-P2. Our results reflect that during early anticipation uncertainty is strongly associated with affective mechanisms and seems to be a more salient event compared to certain anticipation. During the last 2 s before stimulation, attentional control mechanisms are initiated related to the increased salience of uncertainty. Furthermore, stimulus-specific preparatory mechanisms during certain anticipation also shaped the response to stimulation, underlining the adaptive value of stimulus-targeted preparatory activity which is less likely when facing an uncertain event. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Alternative indicators for monitoring the quality of a continuous intervention program on antibiotic prescribing during changing healthcare conditions.

PubMed

Bantar, C; Franco, D; Heft, C; Vesco, E; Arango, C; Izaguirre, M; Alcázar, G; Boleas, M; Oliva, M E

2005-06-01

We recently published on the impact of a four-phase hospital-wide intervention program designed to optimize the quality of antibiotic use, where a multidisciplinary team (MDT) could modify prescription at the last phase. Because health care quality was changing during the last 5 years (late 1999 to early 2004), we developed certain indicators to monitor the quality of our intervention over time. Different periods were defined as baseline (pre-intervention), initial intervention-active control, pre-crisis control, crisis control, post-crisis control and end of crisis control. Major indicators were rates of prescription modification by the MDT; prescription for an uncertain infection and a novel index formula (RIcarb) to estimate the rationale for carbapenem use. We assessed 2115 antimicrobial prescriptions. Modification of prescription rate was 30% at the beginning and decreased thereafter up to stable levels. Rate of prescriptions ordered for cases of both uncertain infection and unknown source of infection decreased significantly after intervention (i.e. from baseline to active control). In contrast, a doubling of culture-directed prescriptions was observed between these periods. RIcarb values lower and higher than 60% (modal, cut-off) were assumed as carbapenem overuse and underuse, respectively. Overuse was observed at the pre-intervention, while pronounced underuse was shown during the crisis (RIcarb, 45% and 87%, respectively). The present study demonstrates that certain indicators, other than the widely adopted impact outcomes, are a suitable tool for monitoring the quality of a continuous, long-term, active intervention on antimicrobial prescribing practice, especially when applied in a changing healthcare setting.

Fast computation of the multivariable stability margin for real interrelated uncertain parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sideris, Athanasios; Sanchez Pena, Ricardo S.

1988-01-01

A novel algorithm for computing the multivariable stability margin for checking the robust stability of feedback systems with real parametric uncertainty is proposed. This method eliminates the need for the frequency search involved in another given algorithm by reducing it to checking a finite number of conditions. These conditions have a special structure, which allows a significant improvement on the speed of computations.

Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for the 2014 Chilean earthquake. Results show that leading wave measurements fall within the tsunami sample space. At later times, however, there are mismatches between measured data and the simulated results, suggesting that other sources of uncertainty are as relevant as the uncertainty of the studied earthquake characteristics.

"What time is my next meal?" delay-discounting individuals choose smaller portions under conditions of uncertainty.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Annie R; Ferriday, Danielle; Davies, Sarah R; Martin, Ashley A; Rogers, Peter J; Mason, Alice; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M

2017-09-01

'Dietary' delay discounting is typically framed as a trade-off between immediate rewards and long-term health concerns. Our contention is that prospective thinking also occurs over shorter periods, and is engaged to select portion sizes based on the interval between meals (inter-meal interval; IMI). We sought to assess the extent to which the length of an IMI influences portion-size selection. We predicted that delay discounters would show 'IMI insensitivity' (relative lack of concern about hunger or fullness between meals). In particular, we were interested in participants' sensitivity to an uncertain IMI. We hypothesized that when meal times were uncertain, delay discounters would be less responsive and select smaller portion sizes. Participants (N = 90) selected portion sizes for lunch. In different trials, they were told to expect dinner at 5pm, 9pm, and either 5pm or 9pm (uncertain IMI). Individual differences in future-orientation were measured using a monetary delay-discounting task. Participants chose larger portions when the IMI was longer (p < 0.001). When the IMI was uncertain, delay-discounting participants chose smaller portions than the average portion chosen in the certain IMIs (p < 0.05). Furthermore, monetary discounting mediated a relationship between BMI and smaller portion selection in uncertainty (p < 0.05). This is the first study to report an association between delay discounting and IMI insensitivity. We reason that delay discounters selected smaller portions because they were less sensitive to the uncertain IMI, and overlooked concerns about potential future hunger. These findings are important because they illustrate that differences in discounting are expressed in short-term portion-size decisions and suggest that IMI insensitivity increases when meal timings are uncertain. Further research is needed to confirm whether these findings generalise to other populations. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Extreme precipitation patterns reduced terrestrial ecosystem production across biomass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more intense rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated ...

An approach to quantifying the efficiency of a Bayesian filter

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Data assimilation is defined as the Bayesian conditioning of uncertain model simulations on observations for the purpose of reducing uncertainty about model states. Practical data assimilation applications require that simplifying assumptions be made about the prior and posterior state distributions...

Robust H ∞ Control for Spacecraft Rendezvous with a Noncooperative Target

PubMed Central

Wu, Shu-Nan; Zhou, Wen-Ya; Tan, Shu-Jun; Wu, Guo-Qiang

2013-01-01

The robust H ∞ control for spacecraft rendezvous with a noncooperative target is addressed in this paper. The relative motion of chaser and noncooperative target is firstly modeled as the uncertain system, which contains uncertain orbit parameter and mass. Then the H ∞ performance and finite time performance are proposed, and a robust H ∞ controller is developed to drive the chaser to rendezvous with the non-cooperative target in the presence of control input saturation, measurement error, and thrust error. The linear matrix inequality technology is used to derive the sufficient condition of the proposed controller. An illustrative example is finally provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the controller. PMID:24027446

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng; Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay

PubMed Central

Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

2016-01-01

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method. PMID:27669005

Under the influence: Effects of adolescent ethanol exposure and anxiety on motivation for uncertain gambling-like cues in male and female rats.

PubMed

Hellberg, Samantha N; Levit, Jeremy D; Robinson, Mike J F

2018-01-30

Gambling disorder (GD) frequently co-occurs with alcohol use and anxiety disorders, suggesting possible shared mechanisms. Recent research suggests reward uncertainty may powerfully enhance attraction towards reward cues. Here, we examined the effects of adolescent ethanol exposure, anxiety, and reward uncertainty on cue-triggered motivation. Male and female adolescent rats were given free access to ethanol or control jello for 20days. Following withdrawal, rats underwent autoshaping on a certain (100%-1) or uncertain (50%-1-2-3) reward contingency, followed by single-session conditioned reinforcement and progressive ratio tasks, and 7days of omission training, during which lever pressing resulted in omission of reward. Finally, anxiety levels were quantified on the elevated plus maze. Here, we found that uncertainty narrowed cue attraction by significantly increasing the ratio of sign-tracking to goal-tracking, particularly amongst control jello and high anxiety animals, but not in animals exposed to ethanol during adolescence. In addition, attentional bias towards the lever cue was more persistent under uncertain conditions following omission training. We also found that females consumed more ethanol, and that uncertainty mitigated the anxiolytic effects of ethanol exposure observed in high ethanol intake animals under certainty conditions. Our results further support that reward uncertainty biases attraction towards reward cues, suggesting also that heightened anxiety may enhance vulnerability to the effects of reward uncertainty. Chronic, elevated alcohol consumption may contribute to heightened anxiety levels, while high anxiety may promote the over-attribution of incentive value to reward cues, highlighting possible mechanisms that may drive concurrent anxiety, heavy drinking, and problematic gambling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of socioeconomic and demographic status on spirometry testing in patients initiating medication targeting obstructive lung disease: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Koefoed, Mette M; Søndergaard, Jens; Christensen, René dePont; Jarbøl, Dorte E

2013-06-14

Socioeconomic status is known to influence the prevalence, severity and mortality of obstructive lung diseases, but it is uncertain whether it affects the use of diagnostic spirometry in patients initiating treatment for these conditions. The objective of this paper was to examine a possible association between education, income, labour market affiliation, cohabitation status and having spirometry performed when initiating medication targeting obstructive pulmonary disease. We conducted a population-based cohort study. Danish national registers were linked, retrieving data on prescriptions, spirometry testing, socioeconomic and demographic variables in all first time users of medication targeting obstructive lung disease in 2008. A total of 37,734 persons were included and approximately half of the cohort had spirometry performed. Among medication users under 65 years of age, being unemployed was significantly associated with reduced odds of having spirometry performed, the strongest association was seen in men (OR = 0.82, CI = 0.73-0.91). Medium income was associated with increased odds of having spirometry performed in men (OR =1.18, CI = 1.06-1.30) and high educational level (>12 years) was associated with reduced odds of having spirometry performed in women (OR = 0.86, CI = 0.78-0.94). Cohabitation status was not associated with having spirometry performed. Among medication users over 65 years of age, living alone was associated with reduced odds of having spirometry performed among men (OR = 0.78, CI = 0.69-0.88). Social inequity in spirometry testing among patients initiating medication targeting obstructive lung disease was confirmed in this study. Increased focus on spirometry testing among elderly men living alone, among the unemployed and among women with higher education is required when initiating medication.

Value of Information for Optimal Adaptive Routing in Stochastic Time-Dependent Traffic Networks: Algorithms and Computational Tools

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-25

Real-time information is important for travelers' routing decisions in uncertain networks by enabling online adaptation to revealed traffic conditions. Usually there are spatial and/or temporal limitations in traveler information. In this research, a...

Biological nitrogen fixation and habitat of running buffalo clover

Treesearch

D.R. Morris; V.S. Baligar; T.M. Schuler; P.J. Harmon

2002-01-01

Running buffalo clover (RBC) [Trifolium stoloniferum (Muhl. ex Eat.)] is an endangered species whose survival is uncertain. An experiment was conducted on extant RBC sites to investigate biological nitrogen (N2) fixation, associated plant species, and soil conditions under natural mountain settings. Isotope (15...

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Distributed adaptive asymptotically consensus tracking control of uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Wen, Changyun; Huang, Jiangshuai; Fan, Huijin

2017-11-01

In this paper, a backstepping based distributed adaptive control scheme is proposed for multiple uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition. The common desired trajectory is allowed totally unknown by part of the subsystems and the linearly parameterized trajectory model assumed in currently available results is no longer needed. To compensate the effects due to unknown trajectory information, a smooth function of consensus errors and certain positive integrable functions are introduced in designing virtual control inputs. Besides, to overcome the difficulty of completely counteracting the coupling terms of distributed consensus errors and parameter estimation errors in the presence of asymmetric Laplacian matrix, extra information transmission of local parameter estimates are introduced among linked subsystem and adaptive gain technique is adopted to generate distributed torque inputs. It is shown that with the proposed distributed adaptive control scheme, global uniform boundedness of all the closed-loop signals and asymptotically output consensus tracking can be achieved. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A robust adaptive observer for a class of singular nonlinear uncertain systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arefinia, Elaheh; Talebi, Heidar Ali; Doustmohammadi, Ali

2017-05-01

This paper proposes a robust adaptive observer for a class of singular nonlinear non-autonomous uncertain systems with unstructured unknown system and derivative matrices, and unknown bounded nonlinearities. Unlike many existing observers, no strong assumption such as Lipschitz condition is imposed on the recommended system. An augmented system is constructed, and the unknown bounds are calculated online using adaptive bounding technique. Considering the continuous nonlinear gain removes the chattering which may appear in practical applications such as analysis of electrical circuits and estimation of interaction force in beating heart robotic-assisted surgery. Moreover, a simple yet precise structure is attained which is easy to implement in many systems with significant uncertainties. The existence conditions of the standard form observer are obtained in terms of linear matrix inequality and the constrained generalised Sylvester's equations, and global stability is ensured. Finally, simulation results are obtained to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed scheme.

Fasting, but Not Aging, Dramatically Alters the Redox Status of Cysteine Residues on Proteins in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Menger, Katja E.; James, Andrew M.; Cochemé, Helena M.; Harbour, Michael E.; Chouchani, Edward T.; Ding, Shujing; Fearnley, Ian M.; Partridge, Linda; Murphy, Michael P.

2015-01-01

Summary Altering the redox state of cysteine residues on protein surfaces is an important response to environmental challenges. Although aging and fasting alter many redox processes, the role of cysteine residues is uncertain. To address this, we used a redox proteomic technique, oxidative isotope-coded affinity tags (OxICAT), to assess cysteine-residue redox changes in Drosophila melanogaster during aging and fasting. This approach enabled us to simultaneously identify and quantify the redox state of several hundred cysteine residues in vivo. Cysteine residues within young flies had a bimodal distribution with peaks at ∼10% and ∼85% reversibly oxidized. Surprisingly, these cysteine residues did not become more oxidized with age. In contrast, 24 hr of fasting dramatically oxidized cysteine residues that were reduced under fed conditions while also reducing cysteine residues that were initially oxidized. We conclude that fasting, but not aging, dramatically alters cysteine-residue redox status in D. melanogaster. PMID:26095360

Chaos Suppression in Fractional order Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator in Wind Turbine Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, Karthikeyan; Karthikeyan, Anitha; Duraisamy, Prakash

2017-06-01

In this paper we investigate the control of three-dimensional non-autonomous fractional-order uncertain model of a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) via a adaptive control technique. We derive a dimensionless fractional order model of the PMSM from the integer order presented in the literatures. Various dynamic properties of the fractional order model like eigen values, Lyapunov exponents, bifurcation and bicoherence are investigated. The system chaotic behavior for various orders of fractional calculus are presented. An adaptive controller is derived to suppress the chaotic oscillations of the fractional order model. As the direct Lyapunov stability analysis of the robust controller is difficult for a fractional order first derivative, we have derived a new lemma to analyze the stability of the system. Numerical simulations of the proposed chaos suppression methodology are given to prove the analytical results derived through which we show that for the derived adaptive controller and the parameter update law, the origin of the system for any bounded initial conditions is asymptotically stable.

Relevance and Reason Relations.

PubMed

Skovgaard-Olsen, Niels; Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph

2017-05-01

This paper examines precursors and consequents of perceived relevance of a proposition A for a proposition C. In Experiment 1, we test Spohn's (2012) assumption that ∆P = P(C|A) - P(C|~A) is a good predictor of ratings of perceived relevance and reason relations, and we examine whether it is a better predictor than the difference measure (P(C|A) - P(C)). In Experiment 2, we examine the effects of relevance on probabilistic coherence in Cruz, Baratgin, Oaksford, and Over's (2015) uncertain "and-to-if" inferences. The results suggest that ∆P predicts perceived relevance and reason relations better than the difference measure and that participants are either less probabilistically coherent in "and-to-if" inferences than initially assumed or that they do not follow P(if A, then C) = P(C|A) ("the Equation"). Results are discussed in light of recent results suggesting that the Equation may not hold under conditions of irrelevance or negative relevance. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Immune thrombocytopenia: No longer ‘idiopathic’

PubMed Central

McCRAE, KEITH

2012-01-01

Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is a common hematologic disorder. Its pathogenesis involves both accelerated platelet destruction and impaired platelet production. First-line agents are usually effective initially but do not provide long-term responses. Splenectomy remains an effective long-term therapy, as does rituximab (Rituxan) in a subset of patients. Thrombopoietic agents offer a new alternative, although their place in the overall management of ITP remains uncertain. PMID:21632906

Autonomous Vehicle Systems Laboratory Research Capability Expansion Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-03

currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. University of the Incarnate Word 4301 Broadway, Box #T-2 San Antonio...autonomous control , collaboration, and decision-making in unstructured, dynamic, and uncertain nonlinear environments for autonomous ground and air...vehicle systems. To fulfill the research goal, the PI has initiated fundamental research in the areas of autonomous rotorcraft control and

Challenging Nuclear Abolition

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

Institution; Jan Lodal, past president of the Atlantic Council of the United States; billionaire Richard Branson ; and a substantial num- ber of senior...Association, Center for Strategic and International Stud- ies, Nuclear Threat Initiative, American Physics Society, and Sir Richard Branson’s newly...uncertain and likely declining reliability. (Reprinted from a briefing by retired admiral Richard Meis.) 01-Text.indd 4 10/23/09 9:30:34 AM 5 He

State-dependent resource harvesting with lagged information about system states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Fackler, Paul L.; Boomer, G Scott; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Williams, Byron K.; Nichols, James D.; Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

Markov decision processes (MDPs), which involve a temporal sequence of actions conditioned on the state of the managed system, are increasingly being applied in natural resource management. This study focuses on the modification of a traditional MDP to account for those cases in which an action must be chosen after a significant time lag in observing system state, but just prior to a new observation. In order to calculate an optimal decision policy under these conditions, possible actions must be conditioned on the previous observed system state and action taken. We show how to solve these problems when the state transition structure is known and when it is uncertain. Our focus is on the latter case, and we show how actions must be conditioned not only on the previous system state and action, but on the probabilities associated with alternative models of system dynamics. To demonstrate this framework, we calculated and simulated optimal, adaptive policies for MDPs with lagged states for the problem of deciding annual harvest regulations for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the United States. In this particular example, changes in harvest policy induced by the use of lagged information about system state were sufficient to maintain expected management performance (e.g. population size, harvest) even in the face of an uncertain system state at the time of a decision.

Reliability, Risk and Cost Trade-Offs for Composite Designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Singhal, Surendra N.; Chamis, Christos C.

1996-01-01

Risk and cost trade-offs have been simulated using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally-occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and loading conditions. The probability density function of first buckling load for a set of uncertain variables is computed. The probabilistic sensitivity factors of uncertain variables to the first buckling load is calculated. The reliability-based cost for a composite fuselage panel is defined and minimized with respect to requisite design parameters. The optimization is achieved by solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations whose coefficients are functions of probabilistic sensitivity factors. With optimum design parameters such as the mean and coefficient of variation (representing range of scatter) of uncertain variables, the most efficient and economical manufacturing procedure can be selected. In this paper, optimum values of the requisite design parameters for a predetermined cost due to failure occurrence are computationally determined. The results for the fuselage panel analysis show that the higher the cost due to failure occurrence, the smaller the optimum coefficient of variation of fiber modulus (design parameter) in longitudinal direction.

Output Feedback-Based Boundary Control of Uncertain Coupled Semilinear Parabolic PDE Using Neurodynamic Programming.

PubMed

Talaei, Behzad; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Singler, John

2018-04-01

In this paper, neurodynamic programming-based output feedback boundary control of distributed parameter systems governed by uncertain coupled semilinear parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under Neumann or Dirichlet boundary control conditions is introduced. First, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is formulated in the original PDE domain and the optimal control policy is derived using the value functional as the solution of the HJB equation. Subsequently, a novel observer is developed to estimate the system states given the uncertain nonlinearity in PDE dynamics and measured outputs. Consequently, the suboptimal boundary control policy is obtained by forward-in-time estimation of the value functional using a neural network (NN)-based online approximator and estimated state vector obtained from the NN observer. Novel adaptive tuning laws in continuous time are proposed for learning the value functional online to satisfy the HJB equation along system trajectories while ensuring the closed-loop stability. Local uniformly ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system is verified by using Lyapunov theory. The performance of the proposed controller is verified via simulation on an unstable coupled diffusion reaction process.

Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Robust Model Predictive Control Algorithm with Guaranteed Resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet A.; Carson, John M., III

2005-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees the resolvability of the associated finite-horizon optimal control problem in a receding-horizon implementation. The control consists of two components; (i) feedforward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives, and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Integral Sliding Mode Fault-Tolerant Control for Uncertain Linear Systems Over Networks With Signals Quantization.

PubMed

Hao, Li-Ying; Park, Ju H; Ye, Dan

2017-09-01

In this paper, a new robust fault-tolerant compensation control method for uncertain linear systems over networks is proposed, where only quantized signals are assumed to be available. This approach is based on the integral sliding mode (ISM) method where two kinds of integral sliding surfaces are constructed. One is the continuous-state-dependent surface with the aim of sliding mode stability analysis and the other is the quantization-state-dependent surface, which is used for ISM controller design. A scheme that combines the adaptive ISM controller and quantization parameter adjustment strategy is then proposed. Through utilizing H ∞ control analytical technique, once the system is in the sliding mode, the nature of performing disturbance attenuation and fault tolerance from the initial time can be found without requiring any fault information. Finally, the effectiveness of our proposed ISM control fault-tolerant schemes against quantization errors is demonstrated in the simulation.

Using Global Plate Velocity Boundary Conditions for Embedded Regional Geodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taramon Gomez, Jorge; Morgan, Jason; Perez-Gussinye, Marta

2015-04-01

The treatment of far-field boundary conditions is one of the most poorly resolved issues for regional modeling of geodynamic processes. In viscous flow, the choice of far-field boundary conditions often strongly shapes the large-scale structure of a geosimulation. The mantle velocity field along the sidewalls and base of a modeling region is typically much more poorly known than the geometry of past global motions of the surface plates as constrained by global plate motion reconstructions. For regional rifting models it has become routine to apply highly simplified 'plate spreading' or 'uniform rifting' boundary conditions to a 3-D model that limits its ability to simulate the geodynamic evolution of a specific rifted margin. One way researchers are exploring the sensitivity of regional models to uncertain boundary conditions is to use a nested modeling approach in which a global model is used to determine a large-scale flow pattern that is imposed as a constraint along the boundaries of the region to be modeled. Here we explore the utility of a different approach that takes advantage of the ability of finite element models to use unstructured meshes than can embed much higher resolution sub-regions within a spherical global mesh. In our initial project to validate this approach, we create a global spherical mesh in which a higher resolution sub-region is created around the nascent South Atlantic Rifting Margin. Global Plate motion BCs and plate boundaries are applied for the time of the onset of rifting, continuing through several 10s of Ma of rifting. Thermal, compositional, and melt-related buoyancy forces are only non-zero within the high-resolution subregion, elsewhere, motions are constrained by surface plate-motion constraints. The total number of unknowns needed to solve an embedded regional model with this approach is less than 1/3 larger than that needed for a structured-mesh solution on a Cartesian or spherical cap sub-regional mesh. Here we illustrate the initial steps within this workflow for creating time-varying surface boundary conditions (using GPlates), and a time-variable unstructured 3-D spherical mesh.

Effects of modeling errors on trajectory predictions in air traffic control automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Michael R. C.; Zhao, Yiyuan; Slattery, Rhonda

1996-01-01

Air traffic control automation synthesizes aircraft trajectories for the generation of advisories. Trajectory computation employs models of aircraft performances and weather conditions. In contrast, actual trajectories are flown in real aircraft under actual conditions. Since synthetic trajectories are used in landing scheduling and conflict probing, it is very important to understand the differences between computed trajectories and actual trajectories. This paper examines the effects of aircraft modeling errors on the accuracy of trajectory predictions in air traffic control automation. Three-dimensional point-mass aircraft equations of motion are assumed to be able to generate actual aircraft flight paths. Modeling errors are described as uncertain parameters or uncertain input functions. Pilot or autopilot feedback actions are expressed as equality constraints to satisfy control objectives. A typical trajectory is defined by a series of flight segments with different control objectives for each flight segment and conditions that define segment transitions. A constrained linearization approach is used to analyze trajectory differences caused by various modeling errors by developing a linear time varying system that describes the trajectory errors, with expressions to transfer the trajectory errors across moving segment transitions. A numerical example is presented for a complete commercial aircraft descent trajectory consisting of several flight segments.

The Impact of Model Uncertainty on Spatial Compensation in Structural Acoustic Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Robert L.

2005-01-01

Turbulent boundary layer (TBL) noise is considered a primary contribution to the interior noise present in commercial airliners. There are numerous investigations of interior noise control devoted to aircraft panels; however, practical realization is a potential challenge since physical boundary conditions are uncertain at best. In most prior studies, pinned or clamped boundary conditions were assumed; however, realistic panels likely display a range of boundary conditions between these two limits. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is a challenge for control system designers, both in terms of the compensator implemented and the location of transducers required to achieve the desired control. The impact of model uncertainties, specifically uncertain boundaries, on the selection of transducer locations for structural acoustic control is considered herein. The final goal of this work is the design of an aircraft panel structure that can reduce TBL noise transmission through the use of a completely adaptive, single-input, single-output control system. The feasibility of this goal is demonstrated through the creation of a detailed analytical solution, followed by the implementation of a test model in a transmission loss apparatus. Successfully realizing a control system robust to variations in boundary conditions can lead to the design and implementation of practical adaptive structures that could be used to control the transmission of sound to the interior of aircraft. Results from this research effort indicate it is possible to optimize the design of actuator and sensor location and aperture, minimizing the impact of boundary conditions on the desired structural acoustic control.

Interstitial cystitis intravesical therapy

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Interstitial cystitis (IC) is a progressive bladder disorder that presents with symptoms of bladder urgency, frequency and pain. The aetiology of the disease remains uncertain, but it is postulated that there is an initial infective insult which damages the glycosaminoglycan (GAG) layer of the bladder urothelium. This defect allows an influx of ions, particularly potassium, which initiates an inflammatory reaction in the bladder wall, which incites the symptoms described above. Treatment initially involves behavioural and oral medication, with second line being intravesical instillation therapy. Treatment strategies focus on restoring lower urinary tract epithelial function, inhibiting neural activation, controlling allergies and relieving symptoms. In this review, current intravesical therapy will be discussed, as well as what lies on the horizon for intravesical therapy in IC. PMID:28791236

A robust H∞-tracking design for uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with unknown premise variables using descriptor redundancy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan Asemani, Mohammad; Johari Majd, Vahid

2015-12-01

This paper addresses a robust H∞ fuzzy observer-based tracking design problem for uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with external disturbances. To have a practical observer-based controller, the premise variables of the system are assumed to be not measurable in general, which leads to a more complex design process. The tracker is synthesised based on a fuzzy Lyapunov function approach and non-parallel distributed compensation (non-PDC) scheme. Using the descriptor redundancy approach, the robust stability conditions are derived in the form of strict linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) even in the presence of uncertainties in the system, input, and output matrices simultaneously. Numerical simulations are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Sediment load from major rivers into Puget Sound and its adjacent waters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czuba, Jonathan A.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Czuba, Christiana R.; Grossman, Eric E.; Curran, Christopher A.; Gendaszek, Andrew S.; Dinicola, Richard S.

2011-01-01

Each year, an estimated load of 6.5 million tons of sediment is transported by rivers to Puget Sound and its adjacent waters—enough to cover a football field to the height of six Space Needles. This estimated load is highly uncertain because sediment studies and available sediment-load data are sparse and historically limited to specific rivers, short time frames, and a narrow range of hydrologic conditions. The largest sediment loads are carried by rivers with glaciated volcanoes in their headwaters. Research suggests 70 percent of the sediment load delivered to Puget Sound is from rivers and 30 percent is from shoreline erosion, but the magnitude of specific contributions is highly uncertain. Most of a river's sediment load occurs during floods.

Adaptive output-feedback control for switched stochastic uncertain nonlinear systems with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Song, Zhibao; Zhai, Junyong

2018-04-01

This paper addresses the problem of adaptive output-feedback control for a class of switched stochastic time-delay nonlinear systems with uncertain output function, where both the control coefficients and time-varying delay are unknown. The drift and diffusion terms are subject to unknown homogeneous growth condition. By virtue of adding a power integrator technique, an adaptive output-feedback controller is designed to render that the closed-loop system is bounded in probability, and the state of switched stochastic nonlinear system can be globally regulated to the origin almost surely. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed control method. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional robust stabilisation and domain-of-attraction estimation for MIMO uncertain nonlinear systems with input saturation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizi, S.; Torres, L. A. B.; Palhares, R. M.

2018-01-01

The regional robust stabilisation by means of linear time-invariant state feedback control for a class of uncertain MIMO nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties and control input saturation is investigated. The nonlinear systems are described in a differential algebraic representation and the regional stability is handled considering the largest ellipsoidal domain-of-attraction (DOA) inside a given polytopic region in the state space. A novel set of sufficient Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) conditions with new auxiliary decision variables are developed aiming to design less conservative linear state feedback controllers with corresponding larger DOAs, by considering the polytopic description of the saturated inputs. A few examples are presented showing favourable comparisons with recently published similar control design methodologies.

Quantitative local analysis of nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topcu, Ufuk

This thesis investigates quantitative methods for local robustness and performance analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems with polynomial vector fields. We propose measures to quantify systems' robustness against uncertainties in initial conditions (regions-of-attraction) and external disturbances (local reachability/gain analysis). S-procedure and sum-of-squares relaxations are used to translate Lyapunov-type characterizations to sum-of-squares optimization problems. These problems are typically bilinear/nonconvex (due to local analysis rather than global) and their size grows rapidly with state/uncertainty space dimension. Our approach is based on exploiting system theoretic interpretations of these optimization problems to reduce their complexity. We propose a methodology incorporating simulation data in formal proof construction enabling more reliable and efficient search for robustness and performance certificates compared to the direct use of general purpose solvers. This technique is adapted both to region-of-attraction and reachability analysis. We extend the analysis to uncertain systems by taking an intentionally simplistic and potentially conservative route, namely employing parameter-independent rather than parameter-dependent certificates. The conservatism is simply reduced by a branch-and-hound type refinement procedure. The main thrust of these methods is their suitability for parallel computing achieved by decomposing otherwise challenging problems into relatively tractable smaller ones. We demonstrate proposed methods on several small/medium size examples in each chapter and apply each method to a benchmark example with an uncertain short period pitch axis model of an aircraft. Additional practical issues leading to a more rigorous basis for the proposed methodology as well as promising further research topics are also addressed. We show that stability of linearized dynamics is not only necessary but also sufficient for the feasibility of the formulations in region-of-attraction analysis. Furthermore, we generalize an upper bound refinement procedure in local reachability/gain analysis which effectively generates non-polynomial certificates from polynomial ones. Finally, broader applicability of optimization-based tools stringently depends on the availability of scalable/hierarchial algorithms. As an initial step toward this direction, we propose a local small-gain theorem and apply to stability region analysis in the presence of unmodeled dynamics.

Probabilistic Modeling of Intracranial Pressure Effects on Optic Nerve Biomechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ethier, C. R.; Feola, Andrew J.; Raykin, Julia; Myers, Jerry G.; Nelson, Emily S.; Samuels, Brian C.

2016-01-01

Altered intracranial pressure (ICP) is involved/implicated in several ocular conditions: papilledema, glaucoma and Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome. The biomechanical effects of altered ICP on optic nerve head (ONH) tissues in these conditions are uncertain but likely important. We have quantified ICP-induced deformations of ONH tissues, using finite element (FE) and probabilistic modeling (Latin Hypercube Simulations (LHS)) to consider a range of tissue properties and relevant pressures.

Communicating Uncertain Science to the Public: How Amount and Source of Uncertainty Impact Fatalism, Backlash, and Overload

PubMed Central

Jensen, Jakob D.; Pokharel, Manusheela; Scherr, Courtney L.; King, Andy J.; Brown, Natasha; Jones, Christina

2016-01-01

Public dissemination of scientific research often focuses on the finding (e.g., nanobombs kill lung cancer) rather than the uncertainty/limitations (e.g., in mice). Adults (N = 880) participated in an experiment where they read a manipulated news report about cancer research (a) that contained either low or high uncertainty (b) that was attributed to the scientists responsible for the research (disclosure condition) or an unaffiliated scientist (dueling condition). Compared to the dueling condition, the disclosure condition triggered less prevention-focused cancer fatalism and nutritional backlash. PMID:26973157

Communicating Uncertain Science to the Public: How Amount and Source of Uncertainty Impact Fatalism, Backlash, and Overload.

PubMed

Jensen, Jakob D; Pokharel, Manusheela; Scherr, Courtney L; King, Andy J; Brown, Natasha; Jones, Christina

2017-01-01

Public dissemination of scientific research often focuses on the finding (e.g., nanobombs kill lung cancer) rather than the uncertainty/limitations (e.g., in mice). Adults (n = 880) participated in an experiment where they read a manipulated news report about cancer research (a) that contained either low or high uncertainty (b) that was attributed to the scientists responsible for the research (disclosure condition) or an unaffiliated scientist (dueling condition). Compared to the dueling condition, the disclosure condition triggered less prevention-focused cancer fatalism and nutritional backlash. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Adaptability: Conceptual and Empirical Perspectives on Responses to Change, Novelty and Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Andrew J.; Nejad, Harry; Colmar, Susan; Liem, Gregory Arief D.

2012-01-01

Adaptability is proposed as individuals' capacity to constructively regulate psycho-behavioral functions in response to new, changing, and/or uncertain circumstances, conditions and situations. The present investigation explored the internal and external validity of an hypothesised adaptability scale. The sample comprised 2,731 high school…

SUPPLEMENTAL ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION DOES NOT REDUCE GROWTH OR GRAIN YIELD IN RICE

EPA Science Inventory

Negative effects of enhanced UV-B radiation have been demonstrated in plants, but impacts under realistic field conditions remain uncertain. Adverse impacts to major crops, such as rice (Oryza sativa L.), that are grown in areas with currently high ambient levels of UV-B, could h...

Color Modulates Olfactory Learning in Honeybees by an Occasion-Setting Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mota, Theo; Giurfa, Martin; Sandoz, Jean-Christophe

2011-01-01

A sophisticated form of nonelemental learning is provided by occasion setting. In this paradigm, animals learn to disambiguate an uncertain conditioned stimulus using alternative stimuli that do not enter into direct association with the unconditioned stimulus. For instance, animals may learn to discriminate odor rewarded from odor nonrewarded…

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Future scenarios can be developed through a combination of modifications to the land-cover/use maps used to parameterize hydr...

Determining the Supply of Material Resources for High-Rise Construction: Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnullina, Anna; Vasiliev, Vladimir

2018-03-01

This article presents a multi-criteria approach to determining the supply of material resources for high-rise construction under certain and uncertain conditions, which enables integrating a number of existing models into a fairly compact generalised economic and mathematical model developed for two extreme scenarios.

Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet periods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet period

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

Comparison of computer models for estimating hydrology and water quality in an agricultural watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Various computer models, ranging from simple to complex, have been developed to simulate hydrology and water quality from field to watershed scales. However, many users are uncertain about which model to choose when estimating water quantity and quality conditions in a watershed. This study compared...

Sustainable lettuce: Adaptability to uncertain production conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Lettuce is a popular and widely consumed leafy vegetable. California and Arizona annually produce more than 250,000 acres of iceberg, romaine, leaf, and specialty types of lettuce, supplying more than 95% of the U.S market as well as exports to Canada and other countries. These states have dominat...

Visual Stress in Adults with and without Dyslexia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singleton, Chris; Trotter, Susannah

2005-01-01

The relationship between dyslexia and visual stress (sometimes known as Meares-Irlen syndrome) is uncertain. While some theorists have hypothesised an aetiological link between the two conditions, mediated by the magnocellular visual system, at the present time the predominant theories of dyslexia and visual stress see them as distinct, unrelated…

Earthquakes, Cancer and Cultures of Fear: Qualifying as a Skills for Life Teacher in an Uncertain Economic Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Leary, Matt; Smith, Rob

2012-01-01

The Skills for Life (SfL) initiative followed the Moser Report (1999) and incarnated a Third Way agenda that sought to address England's perceived adult skills deficit. SfL marked a large investment in adult education but also a distinct shift to a more focused, instrumentalist role for Further Education (FE) in England. A new structure of teacher…

Agricultural development and emigration: rhetoric and reality.

PubMed

Thompson, G; Amon, R; Martin, P L

1986-01-01

"The untested premise of trade liberalizing U.S. development programs such as the Caribbean Basin Initiative is that commodity trade can substitute for international labor migration. Analysis of U.S. tomato producing regions in Sinaloa, Mexico and Florida suggests that the effect of trade liberalization on international labor migration is uncertain." The emphasis is on how such development projects might affect the flow of illegal migrants to the United States. excerpt

Back from the Future: The Impact of Change on Airpower in the Decades Ahead

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

generic/story_generic.jsp?channel= awst &id=news/aw021108p2.xml&headline=Fate%20of%20F -22,%20C-17%20Lines%20Uncertain%20in%20Fiscal%202009; Pierre Sprey...second lot of low-rate initial production aircraft was announced on 22 May 2008 as $2.2 billion for 12 aircraft, and Maj Gen Charles R . Davis, USAF, the

Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

planning exercises and wargaming. Initial Experimentation Late in the research , the prototype platform and the various fusion methods came together. This...Chapter Four points to prior research 2 Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion in mind multimethod fusing of complex information...our research is assessing the threat of terrorism posed by individuals or groups under scrutiny. Broadly, the ultimate objec- tives, which go well

The Framework for Life Cycle Cost Management,

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

in the early phases of system development before full- scale development and initial production, O&S cost projections are too un- certain to...Ensure that each increment of cost and schedule investment in R&M contributes significantly to the above objectives. DoDD 5000.40, Reliability and...Major systems are characterized by large investments of time and resources in the uncertain periods of development, production, and deployment and in

Portfolio theory and cost-effectiveness analysis: a further discussion.

PubMed

Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Rutten, Frans F H

2004-01-01

Portfolio theory has been suggested as a means to improve the risk-return characteristics of investments in health-care programs through diversification when costs and effects are uncertain. This approach is based on the assumption that the investment proportions are not subject to uncertainty and that the budget can be invested in toto in health-care programs. In the present paper we develop an algorithm that accounts for the fact that investment proportions in health-care programs may be uncertain (due to the uncertainty associated with costs) and limited (due to the size of the programs). The initial budget allocation across programs may therefore be revised at the end of the investment period to cover the extra costs of some programs with the leftover budget of other programs in the portfolio. Once the total budget is equivalent to or exceeds the expected costs of the programs in the portfolio, the initial budget allocation policy does not impact the risk-return characteristics of the combined portfolio, i.e., there is no benefit from diversification anymore. The applicability of portfolio methods to improve the risk-return characteristics of investments in health care is limited to situations where the available budget is much smaller than the expected costs of the programs to be funded.

Transducer placement for robustness to variations in boundary conditions for active structural acoustic control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprofera, Joseph D.; Clark, Robert L.; Cabell, Randolph H.; Gibbs, Gary P.

2005-05-01

Turbulent boundary layer (TBL) noise is considered a primary contribution to the interior noise present in commercial airliners. There are numerous investigations of interior noise control devoted to aircraft panels; however, practical realization is a potential challenge since physical boundary conditions are uncertain at best. In most prior studies, pinned or clamped boundary conditions were assumed; however, realistic panels likely display a range of boundary conditions between these two limits. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is a challenge for control system designers, both in terms of the compensator implemented and the location of transducers required to achieve the desired control. The impact of model uncertainties, specifically uncertain boundaries, on the selection of transducer locations for structural acoustic control is considered herein. The final goal of this work is the design of an aircraft panel structure that can reduce TBL noise transmission through the use of a completely adaptive, single-input, single-output control system. The feasibility of this goal is demonstrated through the creation of a detailed analytical solution, followed by the implementation of a test model in a transmission loss apparatus. Successfully realizing a control system robust to variations in boundary conditions can lead to the design and implementation of practical adaptive structures that could be used to control the transmission of sound to the interior of aircraft. Results from this research effort indicate it is possible to optimize the design of actuator and sensor location and aperture, minimizing the impact of boundary conditions on the desired structural acoustic control.

Improving care for patients whose recovery is uncertain. The AMBER care bundle: design and implementation.

PubMed

Carey, Irene; Shouls, Susanna; Bristowe, Katherine; Morris, Michelle; Briant, Linda; Robinson, Carole; Caulkin, Ruth; Griffiths, Mathew; Clark, Kieron; Koffman, Jonathan; Hopper, Adrian

2015-03-01

Despite preferences to the contrary, 53% of deaths in England occur in hospital. Difficulties in managing clinical uncertainty can result in delayed recognition that a person may be approaching the end of life, and a failure to address his/her preferences. Planning and shared decision-making for hospital patients need to improve where an underlying condition responds poorly to acute medical treatment and there is a risk of dying in the next 1-2 months. This paper suggests an approach to improve this care. A care bundle (the AMBER care bundle) was designed by a multiprofessional development team, which included service users, utilising the model for improvement following an initial scoping exercise. The care bundle includes two identification questions, four subsequent time restricted actions and systematic daily follow-up. This paper describes the development and implementation of a care bundle. From August 2011 to July 2012, 638 patients received care supported by the AMBER care bundle. In total 42.8% died in hospital and a further 14.5% were readmitted as emergencies within 30 days of discharge. Clinical outcome measures are in development. It has been possible to develop a care bundle addressing a complex area of care which can be a lever for cultural change. The implementation of the AMBER care bundle has the potential to improve care of clinically uncertain hospital patients who may be approaching the end of life by supporting their recognition and prompting discussion of their preferences. Outcomes associated with its use are currently being formally evaluated. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Improving care for patients whose recovery is uncertain. The AMBER care bundle: design and implementation.

PubMed

Carey, Irene; Shouls, Susanna; Bristowe, Katherine; Morris, Michelle; Briant, Linda; Robinson, Carole; Caulkin, Ruth; Griffiths, Mathew; Clark, Kieron; Koffman, Jonathan; Hopper, Adrian

2015-12-01

Despite preferences to the contrary, 53% of deaths in England occur in hospital. Difficulties in managing clinical uncertainty can result in delayed recognition that a person may be approaching the end of life, and a failure to address his/her preferences. Planning and shared decision-making for hospital patients need to improve where an underlying condition responds poorly to acute medical treatment and there is a risk of dying in the next 1-2 months. This paper suggests an approach to improve this care. A care bundle (the AMBER care bundle) was designed by a multiprofessional development team, which included service users, utilising the model for improvement following an initial scoping exercise. The care bundle includes two identification questions, four subsequent time restricted actions and systematic daily follow-up. This paper describes the development and implementation of a care bundle. From August 2011 to July 2012, 638 patients received care supported by the AMBER care bundle. In total 42.8% died in hospital and a further 14.5% were readmitted as emergencies within 30 days of discharge. Clinical outcome measures are in development. It has been possible to develop a care bundle addressing a complex area of care which can be a lever for cultural change. The implementation of the AMBER care bundle has the potential to improve care of clinically uncertain hospital patients who may be approaching the end of life by supporting their recognition and prompting discussion of their preferences. Outcomes associated with its use are currently being formally evaluated. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Evaluation of uncertainties in the CRCM-simulated North American climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Elía, Ramón; Caya, Daniel; Côté, Hélène; Frigon, Anne; Biner, Sébastien; Giguère, Michel; Paquin, Dominique; Harvey, Richard; Plummer, David

2008-02-01

This work is a first step in the analysis of uncertainty sources in the RCM-simulated climate over North America. Three main sets of sensitivity studies were carried out: the first estimates the magnitude of internal variability, which is needed to evaluate the significance of changes in the simulated climate induced by any model modification. The second is devoted to the role of CRCM configuration as a source of uncertainty, in particular the sensitivity to nesting technique, domain size, and driving reanalysis. The third study aims to assess the relative importance of the previously estimated sensitivities by performing two additional sensitivity experiments: one, in which the reanalysis driving data is replaced by data generated by the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2), and another, in which a different CRCM version is used. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in initial conditions, is much smaller than the sensitivity to any other source. Results also show that levels of uncertainty originating from liberty of choices in the definition of configuration parameters are comparable among themselves and are smaller than those due to the choice of CGCM or CRCM version used. These results suggest that uncertainty originated by the CRCM configuration latitude (freedom of choice among domain sizes, nesting techniques and reanalysis dataset), although important, does not seem to be a major obstacle to climate downscaling. Finally, with the aim of evaluating the combined effect of the different uncertainties, the ensemble spread is estimated for a subset of the analysed simulations. Results show that downscaled surface temperature is in general more uncertain in the northern regions, while precipitation is more uncertain in the central and eastern US.

The Effects of the Previous Outcome on Probabilistic Choice in Rats

PubMed Central

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2014-01-01

This study examined the effects of previous outcomes on subsequent choices in a probabilistic-choice task. Twenty-four rats were trained to choose between a certain outcome (1 or 3 pellets) versus an uncertain outcome (3 or 9 pellets), delivered with a probability of .1, .33, .67, and .9 in different phases. Uncertain outcome choices increased with the probability of uncertain food. Additionally, uncertain choices increased with the probability of uncertain food following both certain-choice outcomes and unrewarded uncertain choices. However, following uncertain-choice food outcomes, there was a tendency to choose the uncertain outcome in all cases, indicating that the rats continued to “gamble” after successful uncertain choices, regardless of the overall probability or magnitude of food. A subsequent manipulation, in which the probability of uncertain food varied within each session as a function of the previous uncertain outcome, examined how the previous outcome and probability of uncertain food affected choice in a dynamic environment. Uncertain-choice behavior increased with the probability of uncertain food. The rats exhibited increased sensitivity to probability changes and a greater degree of win–stay/lose–shift behavior than in the static phase. Simulations of two sequential choice models were performed to explore the possible mechanisms of reward value computations. The simulation results supported an exponentially decaying value function that updated as a function of trial (rather than time). These results emphasize the importance of analyzing global and local factors in choice behavior and suggest avenues for the future development of sequential-choice models. PMID:23205915

Introducing a buddying scheme for first year pre-registration students.

PubMed

Campbell, Anne

Student buddying schemes have been found to be helpful for a variety of different university students. This article describes a scheme where first year pre-registration child nursing students are buddied with second-year students, which was first initiated in the academic year 2012/2013. The first year students were aware that peer support was available but contact was only maintained by a minority of students. At present it is uncertain what impact the scheme has had on attrition figures, particularly in the first year. Initial evaluation indicates that students found the scheme helpful and would like it to continue to be available to first-year students.

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

PubMed

Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity.

PubMed

Neta, Maital; Cantelon, Julie; Haga, Zachary; Mahoney, Caroline R; Taylor, Holly A; Davis, F Caroline

2017-12-01

Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to interpret ambiguous cues negatively. Such negative interpretations are likely adaptive in situations in which threat detection is critical for survival and should override an individual's tendency to interpret ambiguity positively in safe contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Secure estimation, control and optimization of uncertain cyber-physical systems with applications to power networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, Ahmad Fayez

Transportation networks, wearable devices, energy systems, and the book you are reading now are all ubiquitous cyber-physical systems (CPS). These inherently uncertain systems combine physical phenomena with communication, data processing, control and optimization. Many CPSs are controlled and monitored by real-time control systems that use communication networks to transmit and receive data from systems modeled by physical processes. Existing studies have addressed a breadth of challenges related to the design of CPSs. However, there is a lack of studies on uncertain CPSs subject to dynamic unknown inputs and cyber-attacks---an artifact of the insertion of communication networks and the growing complexity of CPSs. The objective of this dissertation is to create secure, computational foundations for uncertain CPSs by establishing a framework to control, estimate and optimize the operation of these systems. With major emphasis on power networks, the dissertation deals with the design of secure computational methods for uncertain CPSs, focusing on three crucial issues---(1) cyber-security and risk-mitigation, (2) network-induced time-delays and perturbations and (3) the encompassed extreme time-scales. The dissertation consists of four parts. In the first part, we investigate dynamic state estimation (DSE) methods and rigorously examine the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed routines under dynamic attack-vectors and unknown inputs. In the second part, and utilizing high-frequency measurements in smart grids and the developed DSE methods in the first part, we present a risk mitigation strategy that minimizes the encountered threat levels, while ensuring the continual observability of the system through available, safe measurements. The developed methods in the first two parts rely on the assumption that the uncertain CPS is not experiencing time-delays, an assumption that might fail under certain conditions. To overcome this challenge, networked unknown input observers---observers/estimators for uncertain CPSs---are designed such that the effect of time-delays and cyber-induced perturbations are minimized, enabling secure DSE and risk mitigation in the first two parts. The final part deals with the extreme time-scales encompassed in CPSs, generally, and smart grids, specifically. Operational decisions for long time-scales can adversely affect the security of CPSs for faster time-scales. We present a model that jointly describes steady-state operation and transient stability by combining convex optimal power flow with semidefinite programming formulations of an optimal control problem. This approach can be jointly utilized with the aforementioned parts of the dissertation work, considering time-delays and DSE. The research contributions of this dissertation furnish CPS stakeholders with insights on the design and operation of uncertain CPSs, whilst guaranteeing the system's real-time safety. Finally, although many of the results of this dissertation are tailored to power systems, the results are general enough to be applied for a variety of uncertain CPSs.

Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model

DOE PAGES

Osthus, Dave; Hickmann, Kyle S.; Caragea, Petruţa C.; ...

2017-04-08

Seasonal influenza is a serious public health and societal problem due to its consequences resulting from absenteeism, hospitalizations, and deaths. The overall burden of influenza is captured by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza-like illness network, which provides invaluable information about the current incidence. This information is used to provide decision support regarding prevention and response efforts. Despite the relatively rich surveillance data and the recurrent nature of seasonal influenza, forecasting the timing and intensity of seasonal influenza in the U.S. remains challenging because the form of the disease transmission process is uncertain, the disease dynamics are onlymore » partially observed, and the public health observations are noisy. Fitting a probabilistic state-space model motivated by a deterministic mathematical model [a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model] is a promising approach for forecasting seasonal influenza while simultaneously accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. A significant finding of this work is the importance of thoughtfully specifying the prior, as results critically depend on its specification. Our conditionally specified prior allows us to exploit known relationships between latent SIR initial conditions and parameters and functions of surveillance data. We demonstrate advantages of our approach relative to alternatives via a forecasting comparison using several forecast accuracy metrics.« less

Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Osthus, Dave; Hickmann, Kyle S.; Caragea, Petruţa C.

Seasonal influenza is a serious public health and societal problem due to its consequences resulting from absenteeism, hospitalizations, and deaths. The overall burden of influenza is captured by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza-like illness network, which provides invaluable information about the current incidence. This information is used to provide decision support regarding prevention and response efforts. Despite the relatively rich surveillance data and the recurrent nature of seasonal influenza, forecasting the timing and intensity of seasonal influenza in the U.S. remains challenging because the form of the disease transmission process is uncertain, the disease dynamics are onlymore » partially observed, and the public health observations are noisy. Fitting a probabilistic state-space model motivated by a deterministic mathematical model [a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model] is a promising approach for forecasting seasonal influenza while simultaneously accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. A significant finding of this work is the importance of thoughtfully specifying the prior, as results critically depend on its specification. Our conditionally specified prior allows us to exploit known relationships between latent SIR initial conditions and parameters and functions of surveillance data. We demonstrate advantages of our approach relative to alternatives via a forecasting comparison using several forecast accuracy metrics.« less

"I will never be the granny with rosy cheeks": perceptions of aging in precarious and financially secure middle-aged Germans.

PubMed

Craciun, Catrinel; Flick, Uwe

2014-04-01

Nowadays people are growing old in a context where youth culture is the norm and where self-initiative is required in order to prepare for a good old age. However, planning old age may be more difficult for certain social groups with insecure work and living conditions. Precariousness, defined as bad financial conditions but also as having an insecure, unpredictable existence, has been little studied in the context of aging. This study brings its contribution by exploring how middle-aged adults with different social security backgrounds (insurance versus no insurance) think about aging. Episodic interviews were conducted to explore their concepts of aging, contexts of thinking about aging and perceptions of aging. These were compared between groups who have a secure old age ahead of them (N=10) versus those who have to struggle with an uncertain present and future (N=10). Also, differences between men (N=11) and women (N=9) were addressed. Results of the thematic analysis showed the predominance of fears related to aging as well as an emerging meaninglessness attached to old age. Starting from the different images of aging found in the two studied groups, the need for tailored interventions and policy are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Neural Network-Based Event-Triggered Control of Single-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems.

PubMed

Sahoo, Avimanyu; Xu, Hao; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel adaptive neural network (NN) control of single-input and single-output uncertain nonlinear discrete-time systems under event sampled NN inputs. In this control scheme, the feedback signals are transmitted, and the NN weights are tuned in an aperiodic manner at the event sampled instants. After reviewing the NN approximation property with event sampled inputs, an adaptive state estimator (SE), consisting of linearly parameterized NNs, is utilized to approximate the unknown system dynamics in an event sampled context. The SE is viewed as a model and its approximated dynamics and the state vector, during any two events, are utilized for the event-triggered controller design. An adaptive event-trigger condition is derived by using both the estimated NN weights and a dead-zone operator to determine the event sampling instants. This condition both facilitates the NN approximation and reduces the transmission of feedback signals. The ultimate boundedness of both the NN weight estimation error and the system state vector is demonstrated through the Lyapunov approach. As expected, during an initial online learning phase, events are observed more frequently. Over time with the convergence of the NN weights, the inter-event times increase, thereby lowering the number of triggered events. These claims are illustrated through the simulation results.

Estimation of Community Land Model parameters for an improved assessment of net carbon fluxes at European sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Hanna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Fox, Andrew; Vereecken, Harry; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan

2017-03-01

The Community Land Model (CLM) contains many parameters whose values are uncertain and thus require careful estimation for model application at individual sites. Here we used Bayesian inference with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm to estimate eight CLM v.4.5 ecosystem parameters using 1 year records of half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) observations of four central European sites with different plant functional types (PFTs). The posterior CLM parameter distributions of each site were estimated per individual season and on a yearly basis. These estimates were then evaluated using NEE data from an independent evaluation period and data from "nearby" FLUXNET sites at 600 km distance to the original sites. Latent variables (multipliers) were used to treat explicitly uncertainty in the initial carbon-nitrogen pools. The posterior parameter estimates were superior to their default values in their ability to track and explain the measured NEE data of each site. The seasonal parameter values reduced with more than 50% (averaged over all sites) the bias in the simulated NEE values. The most consistent performance of CLM during the evaluation period was found for the posterior parameter values of the forest PFTs, and contrary to the C3-grass and C3-crop sites, the latent variables of the initial pools further enhanced the quality-of-fit. The carbon sink function of the forest PFTs significantly increased with the posterior parameter estimates. We thus conclude that land surface model predictions of carbon stocks and fluxes require careful consideration of uncertain ecological parameters and initial states.

Rational selection of experimental readout and intervention sites for reducing uncertainties in computational model predictions.

PubMed

Flassig, Robert J; Migal, Iryna; der Zalm, Esther van; Rihko-Struckmann, Liisa; Sundmacher, Kai

2015-01-16

Understanding the dynamics of biological processes can substantially be supported by computational models in the form of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE). Typically, this model class contains many unknown parameters, which are estimated from inadequate and noisy data. Depending on the ODE structure, predictions based on unmeasured states and associated parameters are highly uncertain, even undetermined. For given data, profile likelihood analysis has been proven to be one of the most practically relevant approaches for analyzing the identifiability of an ODE structure, and thus model predictions. In case of highly uncertain or non-identifiable parameters, rational experimental design based on various approaches has shown to significantly reduce parameter uncertainties with minimal amount of effort. In this work we illustrate how to use profile likelihood samples for quantifying the individual contribution of parameter uncertainty to prediction uncertainty. For the uncertainty quantification we introduce the profile likelihood sensitivity (PLS) index. Additionally, for the case of several uncertain parameters, we introduce the PLS entropy to quantify individual contributions to the overall prediction uncertainty. We show how to use these two criteria as an experimental design objective for selecting new, informative readouts in combination with intervention site identification. The characteristics of the proposed multi-criterion objective are illustrated with an in silico example. We further illustrate how an existing practically non-identifiable model for the chlorophyll fluorescence induction in a photosynthetic organism, D. salina, can be rendered identifiable by additional experiments with new readouts. Having data and profile likelihood samples at hand, the here proposed uncertainty quantification based on prediction samples from the profile likelihood provides a simple way for determining individual contributions of parameter uncertainties to uncertainties in model predictions. The uncertainty quantification of specific model predictions allows identifying regions, where model predictions have to be considered with care. Such uncertain regions can be used for a rational experimental design to render initially highly uncertain model predictions into certainty. Finally, our uncertainty quantification directly accounts for parameter interdependencies and parameter sensitivities of the specific prediction.

Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Peng; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.

We consider the development of harmful algae blooms (HABs) in a lake with uncertain nutrients inflow. Two general frameworks, Fokker-Planck equation and the PDF methods, are developed to quantify the resultant concentration uncertainty of various algae groups, via deriving a deterministic equation of their joint probability density function (PDF). A computational example is examined to study the evolution of cyanobacteria (the blue-green algae) and the impacts of initial concentration and inflow-outflow ratio.

Mutually Assured Deletion: The Uncertain Future of Mass Destruction In Cyberspace

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

an indelible impression on practitioners and prognosticators alike. Its integration was initially quiet, seeping into the collective consciousness ...rivals anything before witnessed in the history of warfare, a “ quantum leap forward in the level of threat.” 1 Like a wolf in sheep’s clothing, cyber...tendency toward consistency often leads to neglect ( consciously or not) of stimuli that do not fit pre-existing notions.32 Analogies, then, and

Buckling of structures with uncertain imperfections - Personal perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elishakoff, Isaac

1998-01-01

The previous review on stochastic buckling of structures was written by Amazigo in 1976. This review summarizes some of the developments which took place in recent two decades. A brief overview is given of the effect on uncertainty in the initial geometric imperfections, elastic moduli, applied forces, and thickness variation. For the benefit of the thinking reader, the review has a critical nature. It should be noted that this manuscript has yet to be completed.

Mixed-Initiative Human-Robot Interaction: Definition, Taxonomy, and Survey

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

response situations (i.e., harmful for human lives) that range from natural disasters (e.g., Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown [1]) to terrorist attacks... Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants using mobile rescue robots," Journal of Field Robotics, vol. 30, pp. 44-63, 2013. [2] A. Davids, "Urban search...operating environment can be uncertain, unstructured, and hostile. The damaged Fukushima nuclear plant‟s high radiation level not only posed danger to

Feasibility of Mind-Body Intervention to Promote Wellness in Injured Soldiers

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-06

feeling tired or low energy (78.3%), nausea (69.57%) and headaches (69.57%). The most frequent symptoms endorsed as “bothered a lot” included trouble...sleeping (n=10); feeling tired (n=10), pain in arms, legs or joints (n=11), and headaches (n=11). Satisfaction. Seven participants completed the...totally new experience”. Their initial reactions included feeling skeptical (002,008, 022), finding it challenging (009, 016, 017), feeling uncertain

Self-expanding stent for spontaneous coronary artery dissection: a rational choice.

PubMed

Mele, Marco; Langialonga, Tommaso; Maggi, Alessandro; Villella, Massimo; Villella, Alessandro

2016-12-01

: Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is a rare and poorly understood cause of acute coronary syndrome in relatively young patients. Nowadays, the optimal treatment of SCAD is uncertain. A conservative approach seems to be preferable, but in particular conditions, an invasive strategy is necessary. The poor rate of procedural success, the high risk of procedural complications and the uncertain long and mid-term results make the interventional treatment of SCAD a challenge. We report a case of a young male patient presenting with SCAD successfully treated with a sirolimus-eluting self-expanding coronary stent. To our knowledge, the use of self-expanding coronary stent for SCAD has never been described yet and we discuss about the rationale of a possible larger use in clinical practice.

Switching State-Feedback LPV Control with Uncertain Scheduling Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Tianyi; Al-Jiboory, Ali Khudhair; Swei, Sean Shan-Min; Zhu, Guoming G.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a new method to design Robust Switching State-Feedback Gain-Scheduling (RSSFGS) controllers for Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) systems with uncertain scheduling parameters. The domain of scheduling parameters are divided into several overlapped subregions to undergo hysteresis switching among a family of simultaneously designed LPV controllers over the corresponding subregion with the guaranteed H-infinity performance. The synthesis conditions are given in terms of Parameterized Linear Matrix Inequalities that guarantee both stability and performance at each subregion and associated switching surfaces. The switching stability is ensured by descent parameter-dependent Lyapunov function on switching surfaces. By solving the optimization problem, RSSFGS controller can be obtained for each subregion. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach over the non-switching controllers.

Robust passive control for a class of uncertain neutral systems based on sliding mode observer.

PubMed

Liu, Zhen; Zhao, Lin; Kao, Yonggui; Gao, Cunchen

2017-01-01

The passivity-based sliding mode control (SMC) problem for a class of uncertain neutral systems with unmeasured states is investigated. Firstly, a particular non-fragile state observer is designed to generate the estimations of the system states, based upon which a novel integral-type sliding surface function is established for the control process. Secondly, a new sufficient condition for robust asymptotic stability and passivity of the resultant sliding mode dynamics (SMDs) is obtained in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Thirdly, the finite-time reachability of the predesigned sliding surface is ensured by resorting to a novel adaptive SMC law. Finally, the validity and superiority of the scheme are justified via several examples. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy adaptive strong tracking scaled unscented Kalman filter for initial alignment of large misalignment angles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jing; Song, Ningfang; Yang, Gongliu; Jiang, Rui

2016-07-01

In the initial alignment process of strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS), large misalignment angles always bring nonlinear problem, which can usually be processed using the scaled unscented Kalman filter (SUKF). In this paper, the problem of large misalignment angles in SINS alignment is further investigated, and the strong tracking scaled unscented Kalman filter (STSUKF) is proposed with fixed parameters to improve convergence speed, while these parameters are artificially constructed and uncertain in real application. To further improve the alignment stability and reduce the parameters selection, this paper proposes a fuzzy adaptive strategy combined with STSUKF (FUZZY-STSUKF). As a result, initial alignment scheme of large misalignment angles based on FUZZY-STSUKF is designed and verified by simulations and turntable experiment. The results show that the scheme improves the accuracy and convergence speed of SINS initial alignment compared with those based on SUKF and STSUKF.

77 FR 70551 - Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Shark Management Measures

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-26

... uncertain. The Southeast Fisheries Science Center addressed the questions from the peer reviewers in a post... condition. The stock assessment scientists showed in the post-review updates and projections document that... lb dw in the Gulf of Mexico. Using the ex-vessel prices described in the DEIS under Alternative Suite...

The Economic Diversity of Rural England: Stylised Fallacies and Uncertain Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hodge, Ian; Monk, Sarah

2004-01-01

Debate about rural policy is often based on persistent presumptions about conditions in "rural England," generally associated with economic decline, low incomes, and a lack of services. Such generalisations are rarely justified for rural areas as a whole and we term them as "stylised fallacies." The impression of their…

Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odafe, Victor U.

2011-01-01

Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

Planning for an uncertain future: Restoration to mitigate water scarcity and sustain carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Steven T. Brantley; James M. Vose; David N. Wear; Larry Band

2018-01-01

The desired future conditions of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) can be described by ecosystem structural characteristics as well as by the provision of ecosystem services. Although the desired structural characteristics of restored longleaf pine ecosystems have been described at length, these characteristics deserve a brief review here because...

Education, Training and the Flexible Labour Market.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merson, Martin

1996-01-01

The British government's policy of flexible labor market may be interpreted as either flexibility of conditions, which encourages temporary, contingent work, or flexibility of skills, a repertoire that enables workers to undertake a range of tasks as needed. The challenge for educators is to help workers understand and engage in an uncertain world…

Accelerating the development of old-growth characteristics in second-growth northern hardwoods

Treesearch

Karin S. Fassnacht; Dustin R. Bronson; Brian J. Palik; Anthony W. D' Amato; Craig Lorimer; Karl J. Martin

2015-01-01

Active management techniques that emulate natural forest disturbance and stand development processes have the potential to enhance species diversity, structural complexity, and spatial heterogeneity in managed forests, helping to meet goals related to biodiversity, ecosystem health, and forest resilience in the face of uncertain future conditions. There are a number of...

The Earth Charter

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Journal of Education for Sustainable Development, 2010

2010-01-01

Humanity is part of a vast evolving universe. Earth is alive with a unique community of life. The forces of nature make existence a demanding and uncertain adventure, but Earth has provided the conditions essential to life's evolution. The resilience of the community of life and the well-being of humanity depend upon preserving a healthy biosphere…

Women Confronting the Reality of Multiple Sclerosis: A Qualitative Model of Self-Healing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Romagosa, Carol J.

2010-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic debilitating disease that has an uncertain course. Although uncertainty is a universal experience in chronic illness, uncertainty in MS is especially threatening to psychological well-being. Chronic illness, including conditions of disability, is one of our greatest health care problems as society ages. Never…

Responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2016-01-01

Forest fuel moisture is an important factor for wildland fire behavior. Predicting future wildfire trends and controlled burned conditions is essential to effective natural resource management, but the associated effects of forest fuel moisture remain uncertain. This study investigates the responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change in the...

Preserving and Strengthening Together: Collective Strategies of U.S.Women's College Presidents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Auden D.

2008-01-01

Women's colleges in the 1970s and 1980s faced highly uncertain futures. Soaring popularity of coeducation left them with serious enrollment downturns, and challenges from proposed equal rights legislation threatened to render illegal their single-sex admissions policies. These perilous external conditions drew together the presidents of U.S.…

Study on Material Parameters Identification of Brain Tissue Considering Uncertainty of Friction Coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Fengjiao; Zhang, Guanjun; Liu, Jie; Wang, Shujing; Luo, Xu; Zhu, Feng

2017-10-01

Accurate material parameters are critical to construct the high biofidelity finite element (FE) models. However, it is hard to obtain the brain tissue parameters accurately because of the effects of irregular geometry and uncertain boundary conditions. Considering the complexity of material test and the uncertainty of friction coefficient, a computational inverse method for viscoelastic material parameters identification of brain tissue is presented based on the interval analysis method. Firstly, the intervals are used to quantify the friction coefficient in the boundary condition. And then the inverse problem of material parameters identification under uncertain friction coefficient is transformed into two types of deterministic inverse problem. Finally the intelligent optimization algorithm is used to solve the two types of deterministic inverse problems quickly and accurately, and the range of material parameters can be easily acquired with no need of a variety of samples. The efficiency and convergence of this method are demonstrated by the material parameters identification of thalamus. The proposed method provides a potential effective tool for building high biofidelity human finite element model in the study of traffic accident injury.

Probabilistic Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Single Input Single Output Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brett A.; Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.

2005-01-01

The current standards for handling uncertainty in control systems use interval bounds for definition of the uncertain parameters. This approach gives no information about the likelihood of system performance, but simply gives the response bounds. When used in design, current methods of m-analysis and can lead to overly conservative controller design. With these methods, worst case conditions are weighted equally with the most likely conditions. This research explores a unique approach for probabilistic analysis of control systems. Current reliability methods are examined showing the strong areas of each in handling probability. A hybrid method is developed using these reliability tools for efficiently propagating probabilistic uncertainty through classical control analysis problems. The method developed is applied to classical response analysis as well as analysis methods that explore the effects of the uncertain parameters on stability and performance metrics. The benefits of using this hybrid approach for calculating the mean and variance of responses cumulative distribution functions are shown. Results of the probabilistic analysis of a missile pitch control system, and a non-collocated mass spring system, show the added information provided by this hybrid analysis.

Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

PubMed

Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

2011-04-01

Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

Sensitivity of simulated englacial isochrones to uncertain subglacial boundary conditions in central West Antarctica: Implications for detecting changes in ice dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muldoon, Gail; Jackson, Charles S.; Young, Duncan A.; Quartini, Enrica; Cavitte, Marie G. P.; Blankenship, Donald D.

2017-04-01

Information about the extent and dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during past glaciations is preserved inside ice sheets themselves. Ice cores are capable of retrieving information about glacial history, but they are spatially sparse. Ice-penetrating radar, on the other hand, has been used to map large areas of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and can be correlated to ice core chronologies. Englacial isochronous layers observed in ice-penetrating radar are the result of variations in ice composition, fabric, temperature and other factors. The shape of these isochronous surfaces is expected to encode information about past and present boundary conditions and ice dynamics. Dipping of englacial layers, for example, may reveal the presence of rapid ice flow through paleo ice streams or high geothermal heat flux. These layers therefore present a useful testbed for hypotheses about paleo ice sheet conditions. However, hypothesis testing requires careful consideration of the sensitivity of layer shape to the competing forces of ice sheet boundary conditions and ice dynamics over time. Controlled sensitivity tests are best completed using models, however ice sheet models generally do not have the capability of simulating layers in the presence of realistic boundary conditions. As such, modeling 3D englacial layers for comparison to observations is difficult and requires determination of a 3D ice velocity field. We present a method of post-processing simulated 3D ice sheet velocities into englacial isochronous layers using an advection scheme. We then test the sensitivity of layer geometry to uncertain boundary conditions, including heterogeneous subglacial geothermal flux and bedrock topography. By identifying areas of the ice sheet strongly influenced by boundary conditions, it may be possible to isolate the signature of paleo ice dynamics in the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Intolerance of uncertainty and startle potentiation in relation to different threat reinforcement rates.

PubMed

Chin, Brian; Nelson, Brady D; Jackson, Felicia; Hajcak, Greg

2016-01-01

Fear conditioning research on threat predictability has primarily examined the impact of temporal (i.e., timing) predictability on the startle reflex. However, there are other key features of threat that can vary in predictability. For example, the reinforcement rate (i.e., frequency) of threat is a crucial factor underlying fear learning. The present study examined the impact of threat reinforcement rate on the startle reflex and self-reported anxiety during a fear conditioning paradigm. Forty-five participants completed a fear learning task in which the conditioned stimulus was reinforced with an electric shock to the forearm on 50% of trials in one block and 75% of trials in a second block, in counter-balanced order. The present study also examined whether intolerance of uncertainty (IU), the tendency to perceive or experience uncertainty as stressful or unpleasant, was associated with the startle reflex during conditions of low (50%) vs. high (75%) reinforcement. Results indicated that, across all participants, startle was greater during the 75% relative to the 50% reinforcement condition. IU was positively correlated with startle potentiation (i.e., increased startle response to the CS+ relative to the CS-) during the 50%, but not the 75%, reinforcement condition. Thus, despite receiving fewer electric shocks during the 50% reinforcement condition, individuals with high IU uniquely demonstrated greater defense system activation when impending threat was more uncertain. The association between IU and startle was independent of state anxiety. The present study adds to a growing literature on threat predictability and aversive responding, and suggests IU is associated with abnormal responding in the context of uncertain threat. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Passivity analysis for uncertain BAM neural networks with time delays and reaction-diffusions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jianping; Xu, Shengyuan; Shen, Hao; Zhang, Baoyong

2013-08-01

This article deals with the problem of passivity analysis for delayed reaction-diffusion bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with weight uncertainties. By using a new integral inequality, we first present a passivity condition for the nominal networks, and then extend the result to the case with linear fractional weight uncertainties. The proposed conditions are expressed in terms of linear matrix inequalities, and thus can be checked easily. Examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Stratigraphic response and mammalian dispersal during initial India-Asia collision: Evidence from the Ghazij Formation, Balochistan, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clyde, William C.; Khan, Intizar H.; Gingerich, Philip D.

2003-12-01

Initial continental collision between India and Asia is thought to have caused significant changes to global climate and biota, yet its timing and biogeographic consequences are uncertain. Structural and geophysical evidence indicates initial collision during the early Paleogene, but sedimentary evidence of this has been controversial owing to the intense deformation and metamorphism along the suture zone. Modern orders of mammals that appeared abruptly on northern continents coincident with the global warming event marking the Paleocene-Eocene boundary are hypothesized to have originated on the Indian subcontinent, but no relevant paleontological information has been available to test this idea. Here we present new paleomagnetic, sedimentologic, and paleontologic evidence to show that the lower Eocene Ghazij Formation of western Pakistan records continental sedimentation and mammalian dispersal associated with initial India-Asia collision. Our results are consistent with the initial collision occurring near the Paleocene-Eocene boundary, but modern orders of mammals appeared later in Indo-Pakistan and thus did not likely originate on the Indian subcontinent.

A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

Probable Diagnosis of a Patient with Niemann-Pick Disease Type C: Managing Pitfalls of Exome Sequencing.

PubMed

Zeiger, William A; Jamal, Nasheed I; Scheuner, Maren T; Pittman, Patricia; Raymond, Kimiyo M; Morra, Massimo; Mishra, Shri K

2018-02-17

Here, we present a case of a 31-year-old man with progressive cognitive decline, ataxia, and dystonia. Extensive laboratory, radiographic, and targeted genetic studies over the course of several years failed to yield a diagnosis. Initial whole exome sequencing through a commercial laboratory identified several variants of uncertain significance; however, follow-up clinical examination and testing ruled each of these out. Eventually, repeat whole exome sequencing identified a known pathogenic intronic variant in the NPC1 gene (NM_000271.4, c.1554-1009G>A) and an additional heterozygous exonic variant of uncertain significance in the NPC1 gene (NM_000271.4, c.2524T>C). Follow-up biochemical testing was consistent with a diagnosis of probable Niemann-Pick disease Type C (NP-C). This case illustrates the potential of whole exome sequencing for diagnosing rare complex neurologic diseases. It also identifies several potential common pitfalls that must be navigated by clinicians when interpreting commercial whole exome sequencing results.

Monitoring of surface-fatigue crack propagation in a welded steel angle structure using guided waves and principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Mingyu; Qu, Yongwei; Lu, Ye; Ye, Lin; Zhou, Limin; Su, Zhongqing

2012-04-01

An experimental study is reported in this paper demonstrating monitoring of surface-fatigue crack propagation in a welded steel angle structure using Lamb waves generated by an active piezoceramic transducer (PZT) network which was freely surface-mounted for each PZT transducer to serve as either actuator or sensor. The fatigue crack was initiated and propagated in welding zone of a steel angle structure by three-point bending fatigue tests. Instead of directly comparing changes between a series of specific signal segments such as S0 and A0 wave modes scattered from fatigue crack tips, a variety of signal statistical parameters representing five different structural status obtained from marginal spectrum in Hilbert-huang transform (HHT), indicating energy progressive distribution along time period in the frequency domain including all wave modes of one wave signal were employed to classify and distinguish different structural conditions due to fatigue crack initiation and propagation with the combination of using principal component analysis (PCA). Results show that PCA based on marginal spectrum is effective and sensitive for monitoring the growth of fatigue crack although the received signals are extremely complicated due to wave scattered from weld, multi-boundaries, notch and fatigue crack. More importantly, this method indicates good potential for identification of integrity status of complicated structures which cause uncertain wave patterns and ambiguous sensor network arrangement.

Unique autonomic responses to pain in yoga practitioners.

PubMed

Cotton, Valerie; Low, Lucie A; Villemure, Chantal; Bushnell, M Catherine

2018-04-03

Autonomic nervous system activity is associated with neurobehavioral aspects of pain. Yogis use breathing, relaxation and mindfulness to tolerate pain, which could influence autonomic responses. To evaluate how the link between autonomic responses and pain is altered by other factors, we compared perceptual and autonomic responses to pain between yogis and controls. Nineteen yogis and 15 controls rated warm and painfully hot stimuli (1-cm thermode on calf), with visual anticipatory cues indicating certainly painful, certainly non-painful or uncertainly either painful or non-painful. Heart rate, skin conductance, respiration, and blood pressure were measured. At baseline, yogis breathed slower and deeper than controls, with no differences in other autonomic measures. During the task, perceptual ratings did not differ between groups in either the certain or uncertain conditions. Nevertheless, yogis had higher phasic skin conductance responses in anticipation of and response to all stimuli, but particularly during painful heat in uncertain contexts (Uncertain: 0.46 ± 0.34μS; Certain: 0.37 ± 0.28μS, t(18) = 3.962, p = 0.001). Furthermore, controls showed a decrease in heart rate to warm (-2.51 ± 2.17 bpm) versus painful stimuli (0.83 ± 1.63 bpm; t(13) = 5.212, p < 0.001) and lower respiratory sinus arrhythmia during pain than warm trials, whereas yogis had similar reactions to painful and non-painful stimuli. Autonomic responses to pain differed in yogis and healthy volunteers, despite similar pain ratings. Thus, autonomic reactivity to pain may be altered by environmental and psychological factors throughout an individual's life.

The dopamine antagonist cis-flupenthixol blocks the expression of the conditioned positive but not the negative effects of cocaine in rats

PubMed Central

Wenzel, Jennifer M.; Su, Zu-In; Shelton, Kerisa; Dominguez, Hiram M.; von Furstenberg, Victoria A.; Ettenberg, Aaron

2013-01-01

Human cocaine users report that the initial “high” produced by cocaine administration is followed by an anxiogenic “crash”. Given that cocaine has such robust and opposing properties, it is likely that both the positive and negative effects of cocaine contribute to an individual’s motivation to administer the drug. Despite this likelihood, the neurobiology underlying cocaine’s dual processes remains unclear. While much literature supports a role for dopamine (DA) in cocaine reward, it is uncertain if DA also contributes to the drug’s negative effects. Our laboratory has extensively utilized a modified conditioned place test to explore cocaine’s opponent processes. In this paradigm rats develop conditioned place preferences (CPPs) for an environment paired with the immediate/positive effects of cocaine, and conditioned place aversions (CPAs) for an environment paired with the delayed/negative effects present 15-min after i.v. injection. In the current study rats were conditioned to associate an environment with either the immediate or delayed effects of i.v. cocaine (1 mg/kg/0.1 ml) three hours after i.p. pre-treatment with either the DA D1/D2 receptor antagonist cis-flupenthixol (0.5 mg/kg/ml) or saline vehicle. As expected, vehicle-treated control animals developed the normal pattern of CPPs for cocaine’s immediate effects or CPAs for the delayed effects of cocaine. However, while DA receptor antagonism prevented the expression of cocaine CPPs it did not alter the expression of cocaine-induced CPAs. These data confirm a role for DA transmission in cocaine reward but suggest that different neural pathways mediate the drug’s negative/anxiogenic properties. PMID:24012795

Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2013-04-01

Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations showed some unexpected results, where climate models predicting the largest increase in net precipitation did not result in the largest increase in groundwater heads. This was found to be the result of different initial conditions (1990 - 2010) for the various climate models. In some areas a combination of a high initial groundwater head and an increase in precipitation towards 2021 - 2050 resulted in a groundwater head raise that reached the drainage or the surface water system. This will increase the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system, but reduce the raise in groundwater heads. An alternative climate model, with a lower initial head can thus predict a higher increase in the groundwater head, although the increase in precipitation is lower. This illustrates an extra dimension in the uncertainty assessment, namely the climate models capability of simulating the current climatic conditions in a way that can reproduce the observed hydrological response. Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L, Stisen, S, et al. (2012) Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815212002423 Seaby, LP, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, et al. (2012) Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections (submitted) Journal of Hydrology Stisen, S, Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L et al., (2012): On the importance of appropriate rain-gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes - http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4157/2012/

Aerodynamic Levitation Reactor Studies of Fluorine Reactions with Refractory Ceramics

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-05-01

Melting Points of Rare-Earth Metals and Rare-Earth Trifluorides . 14 3. Aerodynamic Lavitation Flow Reactor. 15 4 Lanthanutm-Boron-Carbon Ternary Phase...the least volatile fluorides (CaF , SrT and rare-earth trifluorides ) would yield a 10% increase in w* (initially O.O cam) in about 1 hour at 1300K...measurement, and are, therefore, somewhat uncertain. The melting points of the rare-earth metals and their trifluorides are illustrated in Fig. 2. The melting

Defense Management: Actions Needed to Improve Management of Air Force’s Food Transformation Initiative

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

nonappropriated fund food and beverage operations, such as clubs and snack bars, accepted jobs with the new contractor, but their job security remains uncertain...operate the nonappropriated fund food and beverage operations, such as clubs and bowling center snack bars, because many of these facilities were...center and golf course snack bars and officers’ and enlisted members’ clubs, to Aramark in a commission-based contract.11 Table 1 lists the pilot

Use of point-of-care ultrasound to evaluate for penile fracture in a child.

PubMed

Lam, Samuel H F

2015-02-01

Penile fracture is a urologic emergency requiring prompt surgical intervention. Ultrasound may help clarify the diagnosis in cases of uncertain history and physical examination. The author presents a case of suspected pediatric penile fracture, in which point-of-care ultrasound helped to rule out the condition and facilitated disposition of the patient.

Aqueous-phase mechanism for secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene: application to the southeast United States and co-benefit of SO2 emission controls

EPA Science Inventory

Isoprene emitted by vegetation is an important precursor of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), but the mechanism and yields are uncertain. Aerosol is prevailingly aqueous under the humid conditions typical of isoprene-emitting regions. Here we develop an aqueous-phase mechanism for...

Impact of soil moisture deficit on ecosystem function across the United States

Treesearch

Susan Moran; Morgan Ross; Mallory Burns

2016-01-01

The cumulative effect of recent prolonged warm drought on regional ecosystem function is still uncertain. Large regions of the United States are experiencing new hydroclimatic conditions with extreme variability in climate drivers such as total precipitation, precipitation patterns (e.g., storm size, intensity and frequency), and seasonal temperatures.

Analysis of the timber situation in Florida, 1995- 2025

Treesearch

Roger C. Conner; Raymond M. Sheffield

2005-01-01

The demand for wood fiber nationwide is expected to increase in the foreseeable future. Harvesting restrictions on forest lands in the West have increased pressure on the South's forest resources to provide more wood. The ability of Florida and other Southern States to respond is uncertain. The authors describe the current extent, condition, and availability of...

Echolalic Responses by a Child with Autism to Four Experimental Conditions of Sociolinguistic Input.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Violette, Joseph; Swisher, Linda

1992-01-01

The immediate verbal imitations (IVIs) of a boy (age five) with autism and echolalia were studied, with variables of linguistic familiarity and instructor's style of directiveness being manipulated. The occurrence of IVIs was related to uncertain or informative events, and was significantly greater when lexical stimuli were unknown and presented…

The infinum principle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geering, H. P.; Athans, M.

1973-01-01

A complete theory of necessary and sufficient conditions is discussed for a control to be superior with respect to a nonscalar-valued performance criterion. The latter maps into a finite dimensional, integrally closed directed, partially ordered linear space. The applicability of the theory to the analysis of dynamic vector estimation problems and to a class of uncertain optimal control problems is demonstrated.

Educational Inequality in Nuevo Leon and Oaxaca, Mexico, 2008 and 2010: The Basis of an Uncertain Future for These Societies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierdant R., Alberto I.; Rodríguez Franco, Jesús; Narro R., Ana Elena

2017-01-01

Education in society especially in Mexico, seems to be a powerful instrument of intergenerational social mobility to produce individuals with "capabilities and functions" allowing them to obtain a greater well-being. "Education as schooling," in the first instance, improves the individuals living conditions, since this is a…

The Vita Activa as Compass: Navigating Uncertainty in Teaching with Hannah Arendt

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Carrie Ann Barnes

2010-01-01

This dissertation is an exploration of stories of uncertainty in the lives of elementary teachers and the value that the ideas of Hannah Arendt lend to the discussion around uncertainty. In "The Human Condition" (1958) Hannah Arendt theorizes the life of action, the "vita activa". Arendtian action is inherently uncertain because to be "capable of…

Intrusive Method for Uncertainty Quantification in a Multiphase Flow Solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnquist, Brian; Owkes, Mark

2016-11-01

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a necessary, interesting, and often neglected aspect of fluid flow simulations. To determine the significance of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, a multiphase flow solver is being created which extends a single phase, intrusive, polynomial chaos scheme into multiphase flows. Reliably estimating the impact of input uncertainty on design criteria can help identify and minimize unwanted variability in critical areas, and has the potential to help advance knowledge in atomizing jets, jet engines, pharmaceuticals, and food processing. Use of an intrusive polynomial chaos method has been shown to significantly reduce computational cost over non-intrusive collocation methods such as Monte-Carlo. This method requires transforming the model equations into a weak form through substitution of stochastic (random) variables. Ultimately, the model deploys a stochastic Navier Stokes equation, a stochastic conservative level set approach including reinitialization, as well as stochastic normals and curvature. By implementing these approaches together in one framework, basic problems may be investigated which shed light on model expansion, uncertainty theory, and fluid flow in general. NSF Grant Number 1511325.

Distinct Roles of PKCι/λ and PKMζ in the Initiation and Maintenance of Hippocampal Long-Term Potentiation and Memory.

PubMed

Wang, Shaoli; Sheng, Tao; Ren, Siqiang; Tian, Tian; Lu, Wei

2016-08-16

PKMζ has been proposed to be essential for maintenance of long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term memory (LTM). However, recent data from PKMζ-knockout mice has called this role into question. Instead, the other atypical isoform, protein kinase C iota/lambda (PKCι/λ), has emerged as a potential alternative player. Therefore, the nature of the "memory molecule" maintaining learned information remains uncertain. Here, we report knockdown (KD) of PKCι/λ and PKMζ in the dorsal hippocampus and find deficits in early expression and late maintenance, respectively, during both LTP and hippocampus-dependent LTM. Sequential increases in the active form of PKCι/λ and PKMζ are detected during LTP or fear conditioning. Importantly, PKMζ, but not PKCι/λ, KD disrupts previously established LTM. Thus, PKCι/λ and PKMζ have distinct functions in LTP and memory, with PKMζ playing a specific role in memory maintenance. This relaying pattern may represent a precise molecular mechanism by which atypical PKCs regulate the different stages of memory. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Composite Robust $$H_\\infty$$ Control for Uncertain Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with State Delay via Disturbance Observer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yunlong; Wang, Hong; Guo, Lei

Here in this note, the robust stochastic stabilization and robust H_infinity control problems are investigated for uncertain stochastic time-delay systems with nonlinearity and multiple disturbances. By estimating the disturbance, which can be described by an exogenous model, a composite hierarchical control scheme is proposed that integrates the output of the disturbance observer with state feedback control law. Sufficient conditions for the existence of the disturbance observer and composite hierarchical controller are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which ensure the mean-square asymptotic stability of the resulting closed-loop system and the disturbance attenuation. It has been shown that the disturbancemore » rejection performance can also be achieved. A numerical example is provided to show the potential of the proposed techniques and encouraging results have been obtained.« less

Almost output regulation of LFT systems via gain-scheduling control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Chengzhi; Duan, Chang; Wu, Fen

2018-05-01

Output regulation of general uncertain systems is a meaningful yet challenging problem. In spite of the rich literature in the field, the problem has not yet been addressed adequately due to the lack of an effective design mechanism. In this paper, we propose a new design framework for almost output regulation of uncertain systems described in the general form of linear fractional transformation (LFT) with time-varying parametric uncertainties and unknown external perturbations. A novel semi-LFT gain-scheduling output regulator structure is proposed, such that the associated control synthesis conditions guaranteeing both output regulation and ? disturbance attenuation performance are formulated as a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) plus parameter-dependent linear matrix equations, which can be solved separately. A numerical example has been used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Finite-time output feedback control of uncertain switched systems via sliding mode design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Haijuan; Niu, Yugang; Song, Jun

2018-04-01

The problem of sliding mode control (SMC) is investigated for a class of uncertain switched systems subject to unmeasurable state and assigned finite (possible short) time constraint. A key issue is how to ensure the finite-time boundedness (FTB) of system state during reaching phase and sliding motion phase. To this end, a state observer is constructed to estimate the unmeasured states. And then, a state estimate-based SMC law is designed such that the state trajectories can be driven onto the specified integral sliding surface during the assigned finite time interval. By means of partitioning strategy, the corresponding FTB over reaching phase and sliding motion phase are guaranteed and the sufficient conditions are derived via average dwell time technique. Finally, an illustrative example is given to illustrate the proposed method.

Impedance learning for robotic contact tasks using natural actor-critic algorithm.

PubMed

Kim, Byungchan; Park, Jooyoung; Park, Shinsuk; Kang, Sungchul

2010-04-01

Compared with their robotic counterparts, humans excel at various tasks by using their ability to adaptively modulate arm impedance parameters. This ability allows us to successfully perform contact tasks even in uncertain environments. This paper considers a learning strategy of motor skill for robotic contact tasks based on a human motor control theory and machine learning schemes. Our robot learning method employs impedance control based on the equilibrium point control theory and reinforcement learning to determine the impedance parameters for contact tasks. A recursive least-square filter-based episodic natural actor-critic algorithm is used to find the optimal impedance parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed method was tested through dynamic simulations of various contact tasks. The simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method optimizes the performance of the contact tasks in uncertain conditions of the environment.

Uncertain responses by humans and rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) in a psychophysical same-different task

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shields, W. E.; Smith, J. D.; Washburn, D. A.; Rumbaugh, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

1997-01-01

The authors asked whether animals, like humans, use an uncertain response adaptively to escape indeterminate stimulus relations. Humans and monkeys were placed in a same-different task, known to be challenging for animals. Its difficulty was increased further by reducing the size of the stimulus differences, thereby making many same and different trials difficult to tell apart. Monkeys do escape selectively from these threshold trials, even while coping with 7 absolute stimulus levels concurrently. Monkeys even adjust their response strategies on short time scales according to the local task conditions. Signal-detection and optimality analyses confirm the similarity of humans' and animals' performances. Whereas associative interpretations account poorly for these results, an intuitive uncertainty construct does so easily. The authors discuss the cognitive processes that allow uncertainty's adaptive use and recommend further comparative studies of metacognition.

Stability of uncertain systems. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, G. L.

1971-01-01

The asymptotic properties of feedback systems are discussed, containing uncertain parameters and subjected to stochastic perturbations. The approach is functional analytic in flavor and thereby avoids the use of Markov techniques and auxiliary Lyapunov functionals characteristic of the existing work in this area. The results are given for the probability distributions of the accessible signals in the system and are proved using the Prohorov theory of the convergence of measures. For general nonlinear systems, a result similar to the small loop-gain theorem of deterministic stability theory is given. Boundedness is a property of the induced distributions of the signals and not the usual notion of boundedness in norm. For the special class of feedback systems formed by the cascade of a white noise, a sector nonlinearity and convolution operator conditions are given to insure the total boundedness of the overall feedback system.

Composite Robust $$H_\\infty$$ Control for Uncertain Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with State Delay via Disturbance Observer

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yunlong; Wang, Hong; Guo, Lei

2018-03-26

Here in this note, the robust stochastic stabilization and robust H_infinity control problems are investigated for uncertain stochastic time-delay systems with nonlinearity and multiple disturbances. By estimating the disturbance, which can be described by an exogenous model, a composite hierarchical control scheme is proposed that integrates the output of the disturbance observer with state feedback control law. Sufficient conditions for the existence of the disturbance observer and composite hierarchical controller are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which ensure the mean-square asymptotic stability of the resulting closed-loop system and the disturbance attenuation. It has been shown that the disturbancemore » rejection performance can also be achieved. A numerical example is provided to show the potential of the proposed techniques and encouraging results have been obtained.« less

Adaptive robust fault tolerant control design for a class of nonlinear uncertain MIMO systems with quantization.

PubMed

Ao, Wei; Song, Yongdong; Wen, Changyun

2017-05-01

In this paper, we investigate the adaptive control problem for a class of nonlinear uncertain MIMO systems with actuator faults and quantization effects. Under some mild conditions, an adaptive robust fault-tolerant control is developed to compensate the affects of uncertainties, actuator failures and errors caused by quantization, and a range of the parameters for these quantizers is established. Furthermore, a Lyapunov-like approach is adopted to demonstrate that the ultimately uniformly bounded output tracking error is guaranteed by the controller, and the signals of the closed-loop system are ensured to be bounded, even in the presence of at most m-q actuators stuck or outage. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to verify and illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive schemes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cerulean Warbler Occurrence Atlas for Military Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

Army Ammuniton Plant (Closed) IN NO 2009 Army IOWA ARMY AMMUNITION PLANT IA UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE J. Percy Priest Lake TN UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE J...Stonewall Jackson Lake WV UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE Summersville Lake WV no POC Army Sunflower Army Ammunition Plant KS no POC USACE Sutton Lake WV UNCERTAIN

Financial arrangements for health systems in low-income countries: an overview of systematic reviews

PubMed Central

Wiysonge, Charles S; Paulsen, Elizabeth; Lewin, Simon; Ciapponi, Agustín; Herrera, Cristian A; Opiyo, Newton; Pantoja, Tomas; Rada, Gabriel; Oxman, Andrew D

2017-01-01

Background One target of the Sustainable Development Goals is to achieve "universal health coverage, including financial risk protection, access to quality essential health-care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all". A fundamental concern of governments in striving for this goal is how to finance such a health system. This concern is very relevant for low-income countries. Objectives To provide an overview of the evidence from up-to-date systematic reviews about the effects of financial arrangements for health systems in low-income countries. Secondary objectives include identifying needs and priorities for future evaluations and systematic reviews on financial arrangements, and informing refinements in the framework for financial arrangements presented in the overview. Methods We searched Health Systems Evidence in November 2010 and PDQ-Evidence up to 17 December 2016 for systematic reviews. We did not apply any date, language, or publication status limitations in the searches. We included well-conducted systematic reviews of studies that assessed the effects of financial arrangements on patient outcomes (health and health behaviours), the quality or utilisation of healthcare services, resource use, healthcare provider outcomes (such as sick leave), or social outcomes (such as poverty, employment, or financial burden of patients, e.g. out-of-pocket payment, catastrophic disease expenditure) and that were published after April 2005. We excluded reviews with limitations important enough to compromise the reliability of the findings. Two overview authors independently screened reviews, extracted data, and assessed the certainty of evidence using GRADE. We prepared SUPPORT Summaries for eligible reviews, including key messages, 'Summary of findings' tables (using GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence), and assessments of the relevance of findings to low-income countries. Main results We identified 7272 reviews and included 15 in this overview, on: collection of funds (2 reviews), insurance schemes (1 review), purchasing of services (1 review), recipient incentives (6 reviews), and provider incentives (5 reviews). The reviews were published between 2008 and 2015; focused on 13 subcategories; and reported results from 276 studies: 115 (42%) randomised trials, 11 (4%) non-randomised trials, 23 (8%) controlled before-after studies, 51 (19%) interrupted time series, 9 (3%) repeated measures, and 67 (24%) other non-randomised studies. Forty-three per cent (119/276) of the studies included in the reviews took place in low- and middle-income countries. Collection of funds: the effects of changes in user fees on utilisation and equity are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). It is also uncertain whether aid delivered under the Paris Principles (ownership, alignment, harmonisation, managing for results, and mutual accountability) improves health outcomes compared to aid delivered without conforming to those principles (very low-certainty evidence). Insurance schemes: community-based health insurance may increase service utilisation (low-certainty evidence), but the effects on health outcomes are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). It is uncertain whether social health insurance improves utilisation of health services or health outcomes (very low-certainty evidence). Purchasing of services: it is uncertain whether increasing salaries of public sector healthcare workers improves the quantity or quality of their work (very low-certainty evidence). Recipient incentives: recipient incentives may improve adherence to long-term treatments (low-certainty evidence), but it is uncertain whether they improve patient outcomes. One-time recipient incentives probably improve patient return for start or continuation of treatment (moderate-certainty evidence) and may improve return for tuberculosis test readings (low-certainty evidence). However, incentives may not improve completion of tuberculosis prophylaxis, and it is uncertain whether they improve completion of treatment for active tuberculosis. Conditional cash transfer programmes probably lead to an increase in service utilisation (moderate-certainty evidence), but their effects on health outcomes are uncertain. Vouchers may improve health service utilisation (low-certainty evidence), but the effects on health outcomes are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). Introducing a restrictive cap may decrease use of medicines for symptomatic conditions and overall use of medicines, may decrease insurers' expenditures on medicines (low-certainty evidence), and has uncertain effects on emergency department use, hospitalisations, and use of outpatient care (very low-certainty evidence). Reference pricing, maximum pricing, and index pricing for drugs have mixed effects on drug expenditures by patients and insurers as well as the use of brand and generic drugs. Provider incentives: the effects of provider incentives are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence), including: the effects of provider incentives on the quality of care provided by primary care physicians or outpatient referrals from primary to secondary care, incentives for recruiting and retaining health professionals to serve in remote areas, and the effects of pay-for-performance on provider performance, the utilisation of services, patient outcomes, or resource use in low-income countries. Authors' conclusions Research based on sound systematic review methods has evaluated numerous financial arrangements relevant to low-income countries, targeting different levels of the health systems and assessing diverse outcomes. However, included reviews rarely reported social outcomes, resource use, equity impacts, or undesirable effects. We also identified gaps in primary research because of uncertainty about applicability of the evidence to low-income countries. Financial arrangements for which the effects are uncertain include external funding (aid), caps and co-payments, pay-for-performance, and provider incentives. Further studies evaluating the effects of these arrangements are needed in low-income countries. Systematic reviews should include all outcomes that are relevant to decision-makers and to people affected by changes in financial arrangements. Financial arrangements for health systems in low-income countries What is the aim of this overview? The aim of this Cochrane Overview is to provide a broad summary of what is known about the effects of financial arrangements for health systems in low-income countries. This overview is based on 15 systematic reviews. Each of these systematic reviews searched for studies that evaluated different types of financial arrangements within the scope of the review question. The reviews included a total of 276 studies. This overview is one of a series of four Cochrane Overviews that evaluate different health system arrangements. Main results What are the effects of different ways of collecting funds to pay for health services? Two reviews looked for studies that addressed this question and found the following. - The effects of changes in user fees on utilisation and equity are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). - It is uncertain whether aid delivered under Paris Principles (ownership, alignment, harmonisation, managing for results, and mutual accountability) improves health compared to aid delivered without conforming to those principles (very low-certainty evidence). What are the effects of different types of insurance schemes? One systematic review looked for studies that addressed this question and found the following. - Community-based health insurance may increase people's use of services (low-certainty evidence), but the effects on people's health are uncertain. It is uncertain whether social health insurance increases people's use of services (very low-certainty evidence). What are the effects of different ways of paying for health services? One systematic review looked for studies that addressed this question and found the following. - It is uncertain whether increasing salaries of public sector healthcare workers improves the quantity or quality of their work. What are the effects of different types of financial incentives for recipients of care? Six systematic reviews looked for studies that addressed this question and found the following. - Giving healthcare recipients incentives may improve their adherence to long-term treatments (low-certainty evidence), but it is uncertain whether they improve people's health. - Giving healthcare recipients one-time incentives probably leads more people to return to start or continue treatment for tuberculosis (moderate-certainty evidence). The certainty of the evidence for other types of recipient incentives for tuberculosis is low or very low. - Conditional cash transfer programmes (giving money to recipients of care on the condition that they take a specified action to improve their health) probably increase people's use of services (moderate-certainty evidence), but have mixed effect on people's health. - Vouchers may improve people's use of health services (low-certainty evidence) but have mixed effects on people's health (low-certainty evidence). - A combination of a ceiling and co-insurance probably slightly decreases the overall use of medicines (moderate-certainty evidence) and may increase health service utilisation (low-certainty evidence). The certainty of the evidence for the effects of other combinations of caps, co-insurance, co-payments, and ceilings is low or very low. - Limits on how much insurers pay for different groups of drugs (reference pricing, maximum pricing, and index pricing) have mixed effects on drug expenditures by patients and insurers as well as the use of brand and generic drugs. What are the effects of different types of financial incentives for health workers? Five systematic reviews looked for studies that addressed this question and found the following. - We are uncertain whether pay-for-performance improves health worker performance, people's use of services, people's health, or resource use in low-income countries (very low-certainty evidence). - We are uncertain whether financial incentives for health workers improve the quality of care provided by primary care physicians or outpatient referrals from primary to secondary care (very low-certainty evidence). - There is no rigorous research evaluating incentives (e.g. bursaries or scholarships linked to future practice location, rural allowances) for recruiting health workers to serve in remote areas. It is uncertain whether giving health workers incentives lead more of them to stay in underserved areas (very low-certainty evidence). - No studies assessed the effects of financial interventions on the movement of health workers between public and private organisations in low- and middle-income countries. How up to date is this overview? The overview authors searched for systematic reviews published up to 17 December 2016. PMID:28891235

Preparing Capable Decision Makers for an Uncertain Future within Underdeveloped, Degraded and Denied Operational Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

later in life’ (post primary education ) development effort, but also one which should – nea must – be initiated quite early. This might actually be...and thinker, Thomas Hobbes. (Interestingly, Hobbes apparently was the source for the tiger’s name within the comic strip ‘Calvin and Hobbes’; while...BROAD-BASED EDUCATION – T. HOBBES’ PHILOSOPHIES SCIENCE, that is, Kno wledg e of Con se- qu en ces ; which is called also PHILO- SOPHY Con seq uences

Army Logistician. Volume 40, Issue 3, May-June 2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

accessible only with a common access card to mitigate security concerns. A link to the “Unit Special Products” site should be a standard fixture...out how to work it. Initially, she was a little uncertain about how to use it or the accompanying soft- ware, iTunes . But she slowly started to...explore both the iPod and iTunes , and, surprisingly, within a few hours, she was confidently rocking out and downloading music! How did she do it

USAF 1990 Research Initiation Program. Volume 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-25

the reinforcement outward, both on the entrance and exit sides. The reinforcement was bent outward like a membrane under internal prressure. This led...potential of a neuron. C: cell capacitance. R: membrane resistance. w: synaptic weight. h(x): sigmoidal function describing the firing rate. y: external...Proof: The uncertain closed loop plant may be written as x(t)=(A+AA)x(t)+(Ao+ AAo )x(t-T) (B+AB)F(C AC)x(t) =(A+BFC)x(t)+(AA+ABFC+BFAC+ABFAC)x(t)+(Ao+Ao)X(t

Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peres, David J.; Cancelliere, Antonino; Greco, Roberto; Bogaard, Thom A.

2018-03-01

Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity-duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily). The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

2010-05-01

Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted scenarios, is essential. We believe that the efficient communication of uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts is not a mission impossible. Questions remaining unanswered in probabilistic hydrological forecasting should not neutralize the goal of such a mission, and the suspense kept should instead act as a catalyst for overcoming the remaining challenges.

A constrained robust least squares approach for contaminant release history identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Alexander Y.; Painter, Scott L.; Wittmeyer, Gordon W.

2006-04-01

Contaminant source identification is an important type of inverse problem in groundwater modeling and is subject to both data and model uncertainty. Model uncertainty was rarely considered in the previous studies. In this work, a robust framework for solving contaminant source recovery problems is introduced. The contaminant source identification problem is first cast into one of solving uncertain linear equations, where the response matrix is constructed using a superposition technique. The formulation presented here is general and is applicable to any porous media flow and transport solvers. The robust least squares (RLS) estimator, which originated in the field of robust identification, directly accounts for errors arising from model uncertainty and has been shown to significantly reduce the sensitivity of the optimal solution to perturbations in model and data. In this work, a new variant of RLS, the constrained robust least squares (CRLS), is formulated for solving uncertain linear equations. CRLS allows for additional constraints, such as nonnegativity, to be imposed. The performance of CRLS is demonstrated through one- and two-dimensional test problems. When the system is ill-conditioned and uncertain, it is found that CRLS gave much better performance than its classical counterpart, the nonnegative least squares. The source identification framework developed in this work thus constitutes a reliable tool for recovering source release histories in real applications.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Thomas K., IV; Johnston, Christopher O.; Hosder, Serhat

2016-01-01

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burges, S. J.

2016-12-01

Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

Robust Unit Commitment Considering Uncertain Demand Response

DOE PAGES

Liu, Guodong; Tomsovic, Kevin

2014-09-28

Although price responsive demand response has been widely accepted as playing an important role in the reliable and economic operation of power system, the real response from demand side can be highly uncertain due to limited understanding of consumers' response to pricing signals. To model the behavior of consumers, the price elasticity of demand has been explored and utilized in both research and real practice. However, the price elasticity of demand is not precisely known and may vary greatly with operating conditions and types of customers. To accommodate the uncertainty of demand response, alternative unit commitment methods robust to themore » uncertainty of the demand response require investigation. In this paper, a robust unit commitment model to minimize the generalized social cost is proposed for the optimal unit commitment decision taking into account uncertainty of the price elasticity of demand. By optimizing the worst case under proper robust level, the unit commitment solution of the proposed model is robust against all possible realizations of the modeled uncertain demand response. Numerical simulations on the IEEE Reliability Test System show the e ectiveness of the method. Finally, compared to unit commitment with deterministic price elasticity of demand, the proposed robust model can reduce the average Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) as well as the price volatility.« less

Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Probabilistic Reasoning: Directed Cyclic Graph and Joint Probability Distribution.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin

2015-07-01

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as Bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning. Dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is a newly presented model of PGMs, which can be applied to fault diagnosis of large and complex industrial systems, disease diagnosis, and so on. The basic methodology of DUCG has been previously presented, in which only the directed acyclic graph (DAG) was addressed. However, the mathematical meaning of DUCG was not discussed. In this paper, the DUCG with directed cyclic graphs (DCGs) is addressed. In contrast, BN does not allow DCGs, as otherwise the conditional independence will not be satisfied. The inference algorithm for the DUCG with DCGs is presented, which not only extends the capabilities of DUCG from DAGs to DCGs but also enables users to decompose a large and complex DUCG into a set of small, simple sub-DUCGs, so that a large and complex knowledge base can be easily constructed, understood, and maintained. The basic mathematical definition of a complete DUCG with or without DCGs is proved to be a joint probability distribution (JPD) over a set of random variables. The incomplete DUCG as a part of a complete DUCG may represent a part of JPD. Examples are provided to illustrate the methodology.

Likelihood of achieving air quality targets under model uncertainties.

PubMed

Digar, Antara; Cohan, Daniel S; Cox, Dennis D; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Boylan, James W

2011-01-01

Regulatory attainment demonstrations in the United States typically apply a bright-line test to predict whether a control strategy is sufficient to attain an air quality standard. Photochemical models are the best tools available to project future pollutant levels and are a critical part of regulatory attainment demonstrations. However, because photochemical models are uncertain and future meteorology is unknowable, future pollutant levels cannot be predicted perfectly and attainment cannot be guaranteed. This paper introduces a computationally efficient methodology for estimating the likelihood that an emission control strategy will achieve an air quality objective in light of uncertainties in photochemical model input parameters (e.g., uncertain emission and reaction rates, deposition velocities, and boundary conditions). The method incorporates Monte Carlo simulations of a reduced form model representing pollutant-precursor response under parametric uncertainty to probabilistically predict the improvement in air quality due to emission control. The method is applied to recent 8-h ozone attainment modeling for Atlanta, Georgia, to assess the likelihood that additional controls would achieve fixed (well-defined) or flexible (due to meteorological variability and uncertain emission trends) targets of air pollution reduction. The results show that in certain instances ranking of the predicted effectiveness of control strategies may differ between probabilistic and deterministic analyses.

Modeling fuel treatment impacts on fire suppression cost savings: A review

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Nathaniel M. Anderson

2015-01-01

High up-front costs and uncertain return on investment make it difficult for land managers to economically justify large-scale fuel treatments, which remove trees and other vegetation to improve conditions for fire control, reduce the likelihood of ignition, or reduce potential damage from wildland fire if it occurs. In the short-term, revenue from harvested forest...

Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Stephan Kroll

2017-01-01

For environmental problems such as climate change, uncertainty about future conditions makes it difficult to know what the goal of mitigation efforts should be, and inequality among the affected parties makes it hard for them to know how much they each should do toward reaching the goal. We examine the effects of scientific uncertainty and wealth inequality in...

d Subunit-Containing GABA[subscript A] Receptor Prevents Overgeneralization of Fear in Adult Mice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Wen-Hua; Zhou, Jin; Pan, Han-Qing; Wang, Xiao-Yang; Liu, Wei-Zhu; Zhang, Jun-Yu; Yin, Xiao-Ping; Pan, Bing-Xing

2017-01-01

The role of d subunit-containing GABA[subscript A] receptor (GABA[subscript A](d)R) in fear generalization is uncertain. Here, by using mice with or without genetic deletion of GABA[subscript A](d)R and using protocols in which the conditioned tone stimuli were cross presented with different nonconditioned stimuli, we observed that when the two…

Reduced-order dynamic output feedback control of uncertain discrete-time Markov jump linear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morais, Cecília F.; Braga, Márcio F.; Oliveira, Ricardo C. L. F.; Peres, Pedro L. D.

2017-11-01

This paper deals with the problem of designing reduced-order robust dynamic output feedback controllers for discrete-time Markov jump linear systems (MJLS) with polytopic state space matrices and uncertain transition probabilities. Starting from a full order, mode-dependent and polynomially parameter-dependent dynamic output feedback controller, sufficient linear matrix inequality based conditions are provided for the existence of a robust reduced-order dynamic output feedback stabilising controller with complete, partial or none mode dependency assuring an upper bound to the ? or the ? norm of the closed-loop system. The main advantage of the proposed method when compared to the existing approaches is the fact that the dynamic controllers are exclusively expressed in terms of the decision variables of the problem. In other words, the matrices that define the controller realisation do not depend explicitly on the state space matrices associated with the modes of the MJLS. As a consequence, the method is specially suitable to handle order reduction or cluster availability constraints in the context of ? or ? dynamic output feedback control of discrete-time MJLS. Additionally, as illustrated by means of numerical examples, the proposed approach can provide less conservative results than other conditions in the literature.

Breast lesions of uncertain malignant nature and limited metastatic potential: Proposals to improve their recognition and clinical management

PubMed Central

Rakha, Emad A.; Badve, Sunil; Eusebi, Vincenzo; Reis-Filho, Jorge S.; Fox, Stephen B.; Dabbs, David J.; Decker, Thomas; Hodi, Zsolt; Ichihara, Shu; Lee, Andrew HS.; Palacios, José; Richardson, Andrea L.; Vincent-Salomon, Anne; Schmitt, Fernando C.; Tan, Puay-Hoon; Tse, Gary M.; Ellis, Ian O.

2016-01-01

Breast lesions comprise a family of heterogeneous entities with variable patterns of presentation, morphology and clinical behaviour. The majority of breast lesions are traditionally classified into benign and malignant conditions and their behaviour can, in the vast majority of cases, be predicted with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, there remain lesions which show borderline features and lie in a grey-zone between benign and malignant as their behaviour cannot be predicted reliably. Defined pathological categorisation of such lesions is challenging and for some entities is recognised to be subjective and include a range of diagnoses, and forms of terminology, which may trigger over-treatment or under-treatment. The rarity of these lesions makes acquisition of clinical evidence problematic and limits the development of a sufficient evidence base to support informed decision making by clinicians and patients. Emerging molecular evidence is providing a greater understanding of the biology of these lesions, but this may or may not be reflected in their clinical behaviour. Herein we discuss some breast lesions that are associated with uncertainty regarding classification, behaviour and hence management. These include biologically invasive malignant lesions associated with uncertain metastatic potential such as low-grade adenosquamous carcinoma, low-grade fibromatosis-like spindle cell carcinoma and encapsulated papillary carcinoma. Other lesions remain of uncertain malignant nature such as mammary cylindroma, atypical microglandular adenosis, mammary pleomorphic adenoma and infiltrating epitheliosis. The concept of categories of 1) breast lesions of uncertain malignant nature and 2) breast lesions of limited metastatic potential, are proposed with details of which histological entities could be included in each category, and their management implications are discussed. PMID:26348644

"It wasn't a disaster or anything": Parents' experiences of their child's uncertain chromosomal microarray result.

PubMed

Wilkins, Ella J; Archibald, Alison D; Sahhar, Margaret A; White, Susan M

2016-11-01

Chromosomal microarray is an increasingly utilized diagnostic test, particularly in the pediatric setting. However, the clinical significance of copy number variants detected by this technology is not always understood, creating uncertainties in interpreting and communicating results. The aim of this study was to explore parents' experiences of an uncertain microarray result for their child. This research utilized a qualitative approach with a phenomenological methodology. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine parents of eight children who received an uncertain microarray result for their child, either a 16p11.2 microdeletion or 15q13.3 microdeletion. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and thematic analysis was used to identify themes within the data. Participants were unprepared for the abnormal test result. They had a complex perception of the extent of their child's condition and a mixed understanding of the clinical relevance of the result, but were accepting of the limitations of medical knowledge, and appeared to have adapted to the result. The test result was empowering for parents in terms of access to medical and educational services; however, they articulated significant unmet support needs. Participants expressed hope for the future, in particular that more information would become available over time. This research has demonstrated that parents of children who have an uncertain microarray result appeared to adapt to uncertainty and limited availability of information and valued honesty and empathic ongoing support from health professionals. Genetic health professionals are well positioned to provide such support and aid patients' and families' adaptation to their situation as well as promote empowerment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO 2 Geological Sequestration

DOE PAGES

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; ...

2012-12-20

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

Time-dependent simulations of disk-embedded planetary atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stökl, A.; Dorfi, E. A.

2014-03-01

At the early stages of evolution of planetary systems, young Earth-like planets still embedded in the protoplanetary disk accumulate disk gas gravitationally into planetary atmospheres. The established way to study such atmospheres are hydrostatic models, even though in many cases the assumption of stationarity is unlikely to be fulfilled. Furthermore, such models rely on the specification of a planetary luminosity, attributed to a continuous, highly uncertain accretion of planetesimals onto the surface of the solid core. We present for the first time time-dependent, dynamic simulations of the accretion of nebula gas into an atmosphere around a proto-planet and the evolution of such embedded atmospheres while integrating the thermal energy budget of the solid core. The spherical symmetric models computed with the TAPIR-Code (short for The adaptive, implicit RHD-Code) range from the surface of the rocky core up to the Hill radius where the surrounding protoplanetary disk provides the boundary conditions. The TAPIR-Code includes the hydrodynamics equations, gray radiative transport and convective energy transport. The results indicate that diskembedded planetary atmospheres evolve along comparatively simple outlines and in particular settle, dependent on the mass of the solid core, at characteristic surface temperatures and planetary luminosities, quite independent on numerical parameters and initial conditions. For sufficiently massive cores, this evolution ultimately also leads to runaway accretion and the formation of a gas planet.

Strategic Defense Initiative Organization adaptive structures program overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obal, Michael; Sater, Janet M.

In the currently envisioned architecture none of the Strategic Defense System (SDS) elements to be deployed will receive scheduled maintenance. Assessments of performance capability due to changes caused by the uncertain effects of environments will be difficult, at best. In addition, the system will have limited ability to adjust in order to maintain its required performance levels. The Materials and Structures Office of the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) has begun to address solutions to these potential difficulties via an adaptive structures technology program that combines health and environment monitoring with static and dynamic structural control. Conceivable system benefits include improved target tracking and hit-to-kill performance, on-orbit system health monitoring and reporting, and threat attack warning and assessment.

The Robustness Analysis of Wireless Sensor Networks under Uncertain Interference

PubMed Central

Deng, Changjian

2013-01-01

Based on the complex network theory, robustness analysis of condition monitoring wireless sensor network under uncertain interference is present. In the evolution of the topology of sensor networks, the density weighted algebraic connectivity is taken into account, and the phenomenon of removing and repairing the link and node in the network is discussed. Numerical simulation is conducted to explore algebraic connectivity characteristics and network robustness performance. It is found that nodes density has the effect on algebraic connectivity distribution in the random graph model; high density nodes carry more connections, use more throughputs, and may be more unreliable. Moreover, the results show that, when network should be more error tolerant or robust by repairing nodes or adding new nodes, the network should be better clustered in median and high scale wireless sensor networks and be meshing topology in small scale networks. PMID:24363613

Always Gamble on an Empty Stomach: Hunger Is Associated with Advantageous Decision Making

PubMed Central

de Ridder, Denise; Kroese, Floor; Adriaanse, Marieke; Evers, Catharine

2014-01-01

Three experimental studies examined the counterintuitive hypothesis that hunger improves strategic decision making, arguing that people in a hot state are better able to make favorable decisions involving uncertain outcomes. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants with more hunger or greater appetite made more advantageous choices in the Iowa Gambling Task compared to sated participants or participants with a smaller appetite. Study 3 revealed that hungry participants were better able to appreciate future big rewards in a delay discounting task; and that, in spite of their perception of increased rewarding value of both food and monetary objects, hungry participants were not more inclined to take risks to get the object of their desire. Together, these studies for the first time provide evidence that hot states improve decision making under uncertain conditions, challenging the conventional conception of the detrimental role of impulsivity in decision making. PMID:25340399

Always gamble on an empty stomach: hunger is associated with advantageous decision making.

PubMed

de Ridder, Denise; Kroese, Floor; Adriaanse, Marieke; Evers, Catharine

2014-01-01

Three experimental studies examined the counterintuitive hypothesis that hunger improves strategic decision making, arguing that people in a hot state are better able to make favorable decisions involving uncertain outcomes. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants with more hunger or greater appetite made more advantageous choices in the Iowa Gambling Task compared to sated participants or participants with a smaller appetite. Study 3 revealed that hungry participants were better able to appreciate future big rewards in a delay discounting task; and that, in spite of their perception of increased rewarding value of both food and monetary objects, hungry participants were not more inclined to take risks to get the object of their desire. Together, these studies for the first time provide evidence that hot states improve decision making under uncertain conditions, challenging the conventional conception of the detrimental role of impulsivity in decision making.

Analysis of torque transmitting behavior and wheel slip prevention control during regenerative braking for high speed EMU trains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kun; Xu, Guo-Qing; Zheng, Chun-Hua

2016-04-01

The wheel-rail adhesion control for regenerative braking systems of high speed electric multiple unit trains is crucial to maintaining the stability, improving the adhesion utilization, and achieving deep energy recovery. There remain technical challenges mainly because of the nonlinear, uncertain, and varying features of wheel-rail contact conditions. This research analyzes the torque transmitting behavior during regenerative braking, and proposes a novel methodology to detect the wheel-rail adhesion stability. Then, applications to the wheel slip prevention during braking are investigated, and the optimal slip ratio control scheme is proposed, which is based on a novel optimal reference generation of the slip ratio and a robust sliding mode control. The proposed methodology achieves the optimal braking performance without the wheel-rail contact information. Numerical simulation results for uncertain slippery rails verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Observer-based state tracking control of uncertain stochastic systems via repetitive controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakthivel, R.; Susana Ramya, L.; Selvaraj, P.

2017-08-01

This paper develops the repetitive control scheme for state tracking control of uncertain stochastic time-varying delay systems via equivalent-input-disturbance approach. The main purpose of this work is to design a repetitive controller to guarantee the tracking performance under the effects of unknown disturbances with bounded frequency and parameter variations. Specifically, a new set of linear matrix inequality (LMI)-based conditions is derived based on the suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional theory for designing a repetitive controller which guarantees stability and desired tracking performance. More precisely, an equivalent-input-disturbance estimator is incorporated into the control design to reduce the effect of the external disturbances. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the desired control system stability and their tracking performance. A practical stream water quality preserving system is also provided to show the effectiveness and advantage of the proposed approach.

Memory conformity affects inaccurate memories more than accurate memories.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B; Villalba, Daniella K

2012-01-01

After controlling for initial confidence, inaccurate memories were shown to be more easily distorted than accurate memories. In two experiments groups of participants viewed 50 stimuli and were then presented with these stimuli plus 50 fillers. During this test phase participants reported their confidence that each stimulus was originally shown. This was followed by computer-generated responses from a bogus participant. After being exposed to this response participants again rated the confidence of their memory. The computer-generated responses systematically distorted participants' responses. Memory distortion depended on initial memory confidence, with uncertain memories being more malleable than confident memories. This effect was moderated by whether the participant's memory was initially accurate or inaccurate. Inaccurate memories were more malleable than accurate memories. The data were consistent with a model describing two types of memory (i.e., recollective and non-recollective memories), which differ in how susceptible these memories are to memory distortion.

Support afferentation in the posture and locomotion control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grigoriev, Anatoly; Tomilovskaya, Elena; Kozlovskaya, Inesa

Mechanisms of support afferentation contribution in posture and locomotion control, which were uncertain up to now, became the point of intensive studies recently. This became possible since the space flights era started which created the conditions for simulated microgravity experiments under conditions of dry immersion and bedrest. The results of neurophysiological studies performed under the conditions of supportlessness have shown that decline or elimination of support loads is followed by deep and fast developing alterations in postural tonic system, including development of postural muscle atonia, changes of recruitment order of motoneurons innervating the shin muscles, spinal hyperreflexia development etc. (Kozlovskaya I.B. et al., 1987). It has been also shown that application of artificial support stimulation in the regimen of natural locomotion under these conditions decreases significantly or even eliminates the development of mentioned changes. The results of these studies laid down the basis for a new hypothesis on the trigger role of support afferentation in postural tonic system and its role in organization and control of postural synergies (Grigoriev A.I. et al., 2004). According to this hypothesis the muscle reception is considered to be the leading afferent input in the control of locomotion. However the data of recent studies pointed out strongly to the participation of support afferentation in definition of cognitive strategies and motor programs of locomotor movements (Chernikova L.A. et al., 2013) and, consequently, in the processes of their initiation (Gerasimenko Yu.P. et al., 2012). The cortical locomotor reflex composes apparently the basis of these processes. The receptive field of this reflex is located in the support zones of the soles and the central part is located in the posterior parietal areas (IPL) of brain cortex. The study is supported by RFBR grant N 13-04-12091 OFI-m.

Robust planning of sanitation services in urban informal settlements: An analytical framework.

PubMed

Schmitt, Rafael J P; Morgenroth, Eberhard; Larsen, Tove A

2017-03-01

New types of sanitation services are emerging to tackle the sanitation crisis in informal settlements. These services link toilet facilities to semi-decentralized treatment plants via frequent, road-based transport of excreta. However, information for the planning of such sanitation services is scarce, and their future operating conditions are highly uncertain. The key questions of this paper are therefore: a) what are the drivers behind success or failure of a service-based sanitation system in informal settlements and b) on what scales and under which conditions can such a system operate successfully? To answer these questions, already at an early stage of the planning process, we introduce a stochastic model to analyze a wide range of system designs under varying technical designs, socio-economic factors, and spatial condition. Based on these initial results, we design a sanitation service and use the numeric model to study its reliability and costs over a wide range of scales, i.e., system capacities, from very few to many hundred users per semi-decentralized treatment unit. Key findings are that such a system can only operate within a narrow, but realistic range of conditions. Key requirements are toilet facilities, which can be serviced rapidly, and a flexible workforce. A high density of facilities will also lower the costs. Under these premises, we develop a road-based sanitation service and model its functionality in different settings and under many scenarios. Results show that the developed sanitation system using a single vehicle is scalable (100-700 users), can provide reliable service, and can be cheap (<1.5 c/p/day). Hence, this paper demonstrates opportunities for road-based sanitation in informal settlements and presents a quantitative framework for designing such systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning accurate very fast decision trees from uncertain data streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Chunquan; Zhang, Yang; Shi, Peng; Hu, Zhengguo

2015-12-01

Most existing works on data stream classification assume the streaming data is precise and definite. Such assumption, however, does not always hold in practice, since data uncertainty is ubiquitous in data stream applications due to imprecise measurement, missing values, privacy protection, etc. The goal of this paper is to learn accurate decision tree models from uncertain data streams for classification analysis. On the basis of very fast decision tree (VFDT) algorithms, we proposed an algorithm for constructing an uncertain VFDT tree with classifiers at tree leaves (uVFDTc). The uVFDTc algorithm can exploit uncertain information effectively and efficiently in both the learning and the classification phases. In the learning phase, it uses Hoeffding bound theory to learn from uncertain data streams and yield fast and reasonable decision trees. In the classification phase, at tree leaves it uses uncertain naive Bayes (UNB) classifiers to improve the classification performance. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-life datasets demonstrate the strong ability of uVFDTc to classify uncertain data streams. The use of UNB at tree leaves has improved the performance of uVFDTc, especially the any-time property, the benefit of exploiting uncertain information, and the robustness against uncertainty.

Financial arrangements for health systems in low-income countries: an overview of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Wiysonge, Charles S; Paulsen, Elizabeth; Lewin, Simon; Ciapponi, Agustín; Herrera, Cristian A; Opiyo, Newton; Pantoja, Tomas; Rada, Gabriel; Oxman, Andrew D

2017-09-11

One target of the Sustainable Development Goals is to achieve "universal health coverage, including financial risk protection, access to quality essential health-care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all". A fundamental concern of governments in striving for this goal is how to finance such a health system. This concern is very relevant for low-income countries. To provide an overview of the evidence from up-to-date systematic reviews about the effects of financial arrangements for health systems in low-income countries. Secondary objectives include identifying needs and priorities for future evaluations and systematic reviews on financial arrangements, and informing refinements in the framework for financial arrangements presented in the overview. We searched Health Systems Evidence in November 2010 and PDQ-Evidence up to 17 December 2016 for systematic reviews. We did not apply any date, language, or publication status limitations in the searches. We included well-conducted systematic reviews of studies that assessed the effects of financial arrangements on patient outcomes (health and health behaviours), the quality or utilisation of healthcare services, resource use, healthcare provider outcomes (such as sick leave), or social outcomes (such as poverty, employment, or financial burden of patients, e.g. out-of-pocket payment, catastrophic disease expenditure) and that were published after April 2005. We excluded reviews with limitations important enough to compromise the reliability of the findings. Two overview authors independently screened reviews, extracted data, and assessed the certainty of evidence using GRADE. We prepared SUPPORT Summaries for eligible reviews, including key messages, 'Summary of findings' tables (using GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence), and assessments of the relevance of findings to low-income countries. We identified 7272 reviews and included 15 in this overview, on: collection of funds (2 reviews), insurance schemes (1 review), purchasing of services (1 review), recipient incentives (6 reviews), and provider incentives (5 reviews). The reviews were published between 2008 and 2015; focused on 13 subcategories; and reported results from 276 studies: 115 (42%) randomised trials, 11 (4%) non-randomised trials, 23 (8%) controlled before-after studies, 51 (19%) interrupted time series, 9 (3%) repeated measures, and 67 (24%) other non-randomised studies. Forty-three per cent (119/276) of the studies included in the reviews took place in low- and middle-income countries. Collection of funds: the effects of changes in user fees on utilisation and equity are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). It is also uncertain whether aid delivered under the Paris Principles (ownership, alignment, harmonisation, managing for results, and mutual accountability) improves health outcomes compared to aid delivered without conforming to those principles (very low-certainty evidence). Insurance schemes: community-based health insurance may increase service utilisation (low-certainty evidence), but the effects on health outcomes are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). It is uncertain whether social health insurance improves utilisation of health services or health outcomes (very low-certainty evidence). Purchasing of services: it is uncertain whether increasing salaries of public sector healthcare workers improves the quantity or quality of their work (very low-certainty evidence). Recipient incentives: recipient incentives may improve adherence to long-term treatments (low-certainty evidence), but it is uncertain whether they improve patient outcomes. One-time recipient incentives probably improve patient return for start or continuation of treatment (moderate-certainty evidence) and may improve return for tuberculosis test readings (low-certainty evidence). However, incentives may not improve completion of tuberculosis prophylaxis, and it is uncertain whether they improve completion of treatment for active tuberculosis. Conditional cash transfer programmes probably lead to an increase in service utilisation (moderate-certainty evidence), but their effects on health outcomes are uncertain. Vouchers may improve health service utilisation (low-certainty evidence), but the effects on health outcomes are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). Introducing a restrictive cap may decrease use of medicines for symptomatic conditions and overall use of medicines, may decrease insurers' expenditures on medicines (low-certainty evidence), and has uncertain effects on emergency department use, hospitalisations, and use of outpatient care (very low-certainty evidence). Reference pricing, maximum pricing, and index pricing for drugs have mixed effects on drug expenditures by patients and insurers as well as the use of brand and generic drugs. Provider incentives: the effects of provider incentives are uncertain (very low-certainty evidence), including: the effects of provider incentives on the quality of care provided by primary care physicians or outpatient referrals from primary to secondary care, incentives for recruiting and retaining health professionals to serve in remote areas, and the effects of pay-for-performance on provider performance, the utilisation of services, patient outcomes, or resource use in low-income countries. Research based on sound systematic review methods has evaluated numerous financial arrangements relevant to low-income countries, targeting different levels of the health systems and assessing diverse outcomes. However, included reviews rarely reported social outcomes, resource use, equity impacts, or undesirable effects. We also identified gaps in primary research because of uncertainty about applicability of the evidence to low-income countries. Financial arrangements for which the effects are uncertain include external funding (aid), caps and co-payments, pay-for-performance, and provider incentives. Further studies evaluating the effects of these arrangements are needed in low-income countries. Systematic reviews should include all outcomes that are relevant to decision-makers and to people affected by changes in financial arrangements.

Insights in time dependent cross compartment sensitivities from ensemble simulations with the fully coupled subsurface-land surface-atmosphere model TerrSysMP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schalge, Bernd; Rihani, Jehan; Haese, Barbara; Baroni, Gabriele; Erdal, Daniel; Haefliger, Vincent; Lange, Natascha; Neuweiler, Insa; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Geppert, Gernot; Ament, Felix; Kollet, Stefan; Cirpka, Olaf; Saavedra, Pablo; Han, Xujun; Attinger, Sabine; Kunstmann, Harald; Vereecken, Harry; Simmer, Clemens

2017-04-01

Currently, an integrated approach to simulating the earth system is evolving where several compartment models are coupled to achieve the best possible physically consistent representation. We used the model TerrSysMP, which fully couples subsurface, land surface and atmosphere, in a synthetic study that mimicked the Neckar catchment in Southern Germany. A virtual reality run at a high resolution of 400m for the land surface and subsurface and 1.1km for the atmosphere was made. Ensemble runs at a lower resolution (800m for the land surface and subsurface) were also made. The ensemble was generated by varying soil and vegetation parameters and lateral atmospheric forcing among the different ensemble members in a systematic way. It was found that the ensemble runs deviated for some variables and some time periods largely from the virtual reality reference run (the reference run was not covered by the ensemble), which could be related to the different model resolutions. This was for example the case for river discharge in the summer. We also analyzed the spread of model states as function of time and found clear relations between the spread and the time of the year and weather conditions. For example, the ensemble spread of latent heat flux related to uncertain soil parameters was larger under dry soil conditions than under wet soil conditions. Another example is that the ensemble spread of atmospheric states was more influenced by uncertain soil and vegetation parameters under conditions of low air pressure gradients (in summer) than under conditions with larger air pressure gradients in winter. The analysis of the ensemble of fully coupled model simulations provided valuable insights in the dynamics of land-atmosphere feedbacks which we will further highlight in the presentation.

"The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity": Correction.

PubMed

2018-04-01

Reports an error in "The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity" by Maital Neta, Julie Cantelon, Zachary Haga, Caroline R. Mahoney, Holly A. Taylor and F. Caroline Davis ( Emotion , 2017[Dec], Vol 17[8], 1137-1143). In this article, the copyright attribution was incorrectly listed under the Creative Commons CC-BY license due to production-related error. The correct copyright should be "In the public domain." The online version of this article has been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2017-40275-001.) Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to interpret ambiguous cues negatively. Such negative interpretations are likely adaptive in situations in which threat detection is critical for survival and should override an individual's tendency to interpret ambiguity positively in safe contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Cluster synchronization transmission of different external signals in discrete uncertain network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chengren; Lü, Ling; Chen, Liansong; Hong, Yixuan; Zhou, Shuang; Yang, Yiming

2018-07-01

We research cluster synchronization transmissions of different external signals in discrete uncertain network. Based on the Lyapunov theorem, the network controller and the identification law of uncertain adjustment parameter are designed, and they are efficiently used to achieve the cluster synchronization and the identification of uncertain adjustment parameter. In our technical scheme, the network nodes in each cluster and the transmitted external signal can be different, and they allow the presence of uncertain parameters in the network. Especially, we are free to choose the clustering topologies, the cluster number and the node number in each cluster.

Misdiagnosis of primary immune thrombocytopenia and frequency of bleeding: lessons from the McMaster ITP Registry

PubMed Central

Nazy, Ishac; Clare, Rumi; Jaffer, Anushka M.; Aubie, Brandon; Li, Na; Kelton, John G.

2017-01-01

Nonspecific diagnostic criteria and uncertain estimates of severe bleeding events are fundamental gaps in knowledge of primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). To address these issues, we created the McMaster ITP Registry. In this report, we describe the methodology of the registry, the process for arriving at the diagnosis, and the frequency of bleeding. Consecutive patients with platelets <150 × 109/L from a tertiary hematology clinic in Canada were eligible. Patients completed a panel of investigations and were managed per clinical need. Two hematologists initially determined the cause of the thrombocytopenia using standard criteria and reevaluated the diagnosis over time, which was adjudicated at regular team meetings. Bleeding was graded from 0 (none) to 2 (severe) prospectively using an ITP-specific tool. Data were validated by duplicate chart review and source verification. Between 2010 and 2016, 614 patients were enrolled. Median follow-up for patients with >1 visit was 1.7 years (interquartile range, 0.8-3.4). At registration, 295 patients were initially diagnosed with primary ITP; of those, 36 (12.2%) were reclassified as having a different diagnosis during follow-up. At registration, 319 patients were initially diagnosed with another thrombocytopenic condition; of those, 10 (3.1%) were ultimately reclassified as having primary ITP. Of 269 patients with a final diagnosis of primary ITP, 56.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 50.4-62.5] experienced grade 2 bleeding at 1 or more anatomical site, and 2.2% (95% CI, 0.8-4.8) had intracranial hemorrhage. Nearly 1 in 7 patients with primary ITP were misdiagnosed. Grade 2 bleeding was common. Registry data can help improve the clinical and laboratory classification of patients with ITP. PMID:29296891

Cholecystokinin Revisited: CCK and the Hunger Trap in Anorexia Nervosa

PubMed Central

Cuntz, Ulrich; Enck, Paul; Frühauf, Erich; Lehnert, Peter; Riepl, Rudolf L.; Fichter, Manfred M.; Otto, Bärbel

2013-01-01

Objective Despite a number of studies in the past decades, the role of Cholecystokinin (CCK) in anorexia nervosa (AN) has remained uncertain. In this study a highly specific assay for the biologically active part of CCK was used in patients with bulimic as well as with the restricting type of AN who were followed over the course of weight gain. Methods Ten patients with restricting and 13 with bulimic AN were investigated upon admission (T0), after a weight gain of at least 2 kg on two consecutive weighting dates (T1), and during the last week before discharge (T2) from inpatient treatment in a specialized clinic. Blood samples were drawn under fasting conditions and 20 and 60 minutes following a standard meal (250 kcal). Data were compared to those of eight controls matched for sex and age. Gastrointestinal complaints of patients were measured by a questionnaire at each of the follow-up time points. Results At admission, AN patients exhibited CCK-levels similar to controls both prior to and after a test meal. Pre and post-meal CCK levels increased significantly after an initial weight gain but decreased again with further weight improvement. CCK release was somewhat lower in bulimic than in restricting type AN but both subgroups showed a similar profile. There was no significant association of CCK release to either initial weight or BMI, or their changes, but CCK levels at admission predicted gastrointestinal symptom improvement during therapy. Conclusions Normal CCK profiles in AN at admission indicates hormonal responses adapted to low food intake while change of eating habits and weight gain results in initially increased CCK release (counteracting the attempts to alter eating behavior) that returns towards normal levels with continuous therapy. PMID:23349895

A Workflow for Subsurface Pressure Control in Geological CO2 Storage: Optimization of Brine Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkholzer, J. T.; Gonzalez-Nicolas, A.; Cihan, A.

2017-12-01

Industrial-scale injection of CO2 into the subsurface increases the fluid pressure in the reservoir, sometimes to the point that the resulting stress increases must be properly controlled to prevent potential damaging impacts such as fault activation, leakage through abandoned wells, or caprock fracturing. Brine extraction is one approach for managing formation pressure, effective stress, and plume movement in response to CO2 injection. However, the management of the extracted brine adds cost to the carbon capture and sequestration operations; therefore optimizing (minimizing) the extraction volume of brine is of great importance. In this study, we apply an adaptive management approach that optimizes extraction rates of brine for pressure control in an integrated optimization framework involving site monitoring, model calibration, and optimization. We investigate the optimization performance as affected by initial site characterization data and introduction of newly acquired data during the injection phase. More accurate initial reservoir characterization data reduce the risk of pressure buildup damage with better estimations of initial extraction rates, which results in better control of pressure during the overall injection time periods. Results also show that low frequencies of model calibration and optimization with the new data, especially at early injection periods, may lead to optimization problems, either that pressure buildup constraints are violated or excessively high extraction rates are proposed. These optimization problems can be eliminated if more frequent data collection and model calibration are conducted, especially at early injection time periods. Approaches such as adaptive pressure management may constitute an effective tool to manage pressure buildup under uncertain and unknown reservoir conditions by minimizing the brine extraction volumes while not exceeding critical pressure buildups of the reservoir.

A Portfolio of the Identities of Young People of the South of Russia under the Conditions of Civilizational Choice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Avksent'ev, V. A.; Aksiumov, B. V.

2012-01-01

The problem of civilizational choice is one of the most timely and relevant problems of the entire postcommunist world. Most of the states of the former Soviet Union, including Russia, still find themselves in an uncertain zone of transition. The crisis of civilizational identity, far from being overcome, has even deepened as the Soviet past…

Diversifying the composition and structure of managed late-successional forests with harvest gaps: What is the optimal gap size?

Treesearch

Christel C. Kern; Anthony W. D’Amato; Terry F. Strong

2013-01-01

Managing forests for resilience is crucial in the face of uncertain future environmental conditions. Because harvest gap size alters the species diversity and vertical and horizontal structural heterogeneity, there may be an optimum range of gap sizes for conferring resilience to environmental uncertainty. We examined the impacts of different harvest gap sizes on...

Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

Treesearch

Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

2012-01-01

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions....

Adaptive Decision Making Using Probabilistic Programming and Stochastic Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-01

world optimization problems (and hence 16 Approved for Public Release (PA); Distribution Unlimited Pred. demand (uncertain; discrete ...simplify the setting, we further assume that the demands are discrete , taking on values d1, . . . , dk with probabilities (conditional on x) (pθ)i ≡ p...Tyrrell Rockafellar. Implicit functions and solution mappings. Springer Monogr. Math ., 2009. Anthony V Fiacco and Yo Ishizuka. Sensitivity and stability

Pattern-Directed Attention in Uncertain Frequency Detection.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-14

performance when compared to a single frequency condition even if the listeners are aware that more than one signal can occur ( Creelman , 1960; Green...be missed. On the-other hand, the multiple band approach, introduced by Green (1958) and modified by Creelman (1960), assumes that listeners base...multiple-band approaches ( Creelman , 1960; Green, 1961; Macmillan & Schwartz, 1975). In general, the two views are difficult to distinguish empirically, and

Commentary: the importance of Medicaid expansion for criminal justice populations in the south.

PubMed

Zaller, Nickolas D; Cloud, David H; Brinkley-Rubinstein, Lauren; Martino, Sarah; Bouvier, Benjamin; Brockmann, Brad

2017-12-01

Though the full implications of a Trump presidency for ongoing health care and criminal justice reform efforts remain uncertain, whatever policy changes are made will be particularly salient for the South, which experiences the highest incarceration rates, highest uninsured rates, and worst health outcomes in the United States. The passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010 was a watershed event and many states have taken advantage of opportunities created by the ACA to expand healthcare coverage to their poorest residents, and to develop partnerships between health and justice systems. Yet to date, only four have taken advantage of the benefits of healthcare reform. Expanding Medicaid would provide Southern states with the opportunity to significantly impact health outcomes for criminal justice-involved individuals. In the context of an uncertain policy landscape, we suggest the use of three strategies, focusing on advancing incremental change while safeguarding existing gains, rebranding Medicaid as a local or statewide initiative, and linking Medicaid expansion to criminal justice reform, in order to implement Medicaid expansion across the South.

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Elliott, Kenny B.

2007-01-01

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

Backlighting the Universe: Understanding the Large-Scale Structure Through Cosmic Microwave Background Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaan, Emmanuel Sebastien

The primary fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the leftover heat from the big bang, have revealed invaluable clues about our universe (age, history, geometry, composition), and are now measured almost to the cosmic variance limit. While important fundamental physics questions remain to be answered from the primary CMB alone (e.g., detection of gravitational waves from inflation, number of relativistic species), many others require looking beyond the primary anisotropies: what is dark energy, this mysterious component responsible for the accelerated expansion of the universe? What is the nature of the dark matter, five times more abundant than ordinary matter? What are the masses of the neutrinos? The clustering pattern in the spatial distribution of galaxies across the universe, the so-called large-scale structure (LSS), contains the key to these fundamental physics questions, as well as many tightly related astrophysical questions: what are the key processes in galaxy formation? How did the universe transition from neutral to ionized, one billion years after the big bang? However, several hurdles hinder extracting this information: non-linear evolution under gravity is complex to model and turns independent Gaussian initial conditions into coupled non-Gaussian modes; uncertain astrophysical effects obscure the connection between visible and dark matter, and alter the matter power spectrum on small-scales; LSS observables are often complex and systematics-limited. In this thesis, I tackle these issues and explore various ways of using the CMB as a backlight for the LSS, to illuminate aspects of its uncertain physics and systematics. In the coming years, ever more sensitive CMB experiments (AdvACT, SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, CMB Stage 4) will overlap with imaging surveys (DES, HSC, LSST, Euclid, WFIRST) and spectroscopic surveys (DESI, PFS), thus greatly magnifying the power of the methods I developed, and helping to answer some of the most pressing astrophysics and fundamental physics questions.

Hypothermia after cardiac arrest: expanding the therapeutic scope.

PubMed

Bernard, Stephen

2009-07-01

Therapeutic hypothermia for 12 to 24 hrs following resuscitation from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is now recommended by the American Heart Association for the treatment of neurological injury when the initial cardiac rhythm is ventricular fibrillation. However, the role of therapeutic hypothermia is uncertain when the initial cardiac rhythm is asystole or pulseless electrical activity, or when the cardiac arrest is primarily due to a noncardiac cause, such as asphyxia or drug overdose. Given that survival rate in these latter conditions is very low, it is unlikely that clinical trials will be undertaken to test the efficacy of therapeutic hypothermia in this setting because of the very large sample size that would be required to detect a significant difference in outcomes. Therefore, in patients with anoxic brain injury after nonventricular fibrillation cardiac arrest, clinicians will need to balance the possible benefit of therapeutic hypothermia with the possible side effects of this therapy. Given that the side effects of therapeutic hypothermia are generally easily managed in the critical care setting, and there is benefit for anoxic brain injury demonstrated in laboratory studies, consideration may be given to treat comatose post-cardiac arrest patients with therapeutic hypothermia in this setting. Because the induction of therapeutic hypothermia has become more feasible with the development of simple intravenous cooling techniques and specialized equipment for improved temperature control in the critical care unit, it is expected that therapeutic hypothermia will become more widely used in the management of anoxic neurological injury whatever the presenting cardiac rhythm.

Hormone Therapy for the Primary Prevention of Chronic Conditions in Postmenopausal Women: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement.

PubMed

Grossman, David C; Curry, Susan J; Owens, Douglas K; Barry, Michael J; Davidson, Karina W; Doubeni, Chyke A; Epling, John W; Kemper, Alex R; Krist, Alex H; Kurth, Ann E; Landefeld, C Seth; Mangione, Carol M; Phipps, Maureen G; Silverstein, Michael; Simon, Melissa A; Tseng, Chien-Wen

2017-12-12

Menopause occurs at a median age of 51.3 years, and the average US woman who reaches menopause is expected to live another 30 years. The prevalence and incidence of most chronic conditions, such as coronary heart disease, dementia, stroke, fractures, and breast cancer, increase with age; however, the excess risk for these conditions that can be attributed to menopause alone is uncertain. Since the publication of findings from the Women's Health Initiative that hormone therapy use is associated with serious adverse health effects in postmenopausal women, use of menopausal hormone therapy has declined. To update the 2012 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on the use of menopausal hormone therapy for the primary prevention of chronic conditions. The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the benefits and harms of systemic (ie, oral or transdermal) hormone therapy for the prevention of chronic conditions in postmenopausal women and whether outcomes vary among women in different subgroups or by timing of intervention after menopause. The review did not address hormone therapy for preventing or treating menopausal symptoms. Although the use of hormone therapy to prevent chronic conditions in postmenopausal women is associated with some benefits, there are also well-documented harms. The USPSTF determined that the magnitude of both the benefits and the harms of hormone therapy in postmenopausal women is small to moderate. Therefore, the USPSTF concluded with moderate certainty that combined estrogen and progestin has no net benefit for the primary prevention of chronic conditions for most postmenopausal women with an intact uterus and that estrogen alone has no net benefit for the primary prevention of chronic conditions for most postmenopausal women who have had a hysterectomy. The USPSTF recommends against the use of combined estrogen and progestin for the primary prevention of chronic conditions in postmenopausal women. (D recommendation) The USPSTF recommends against the use of estrogen alone for the primary prevention of chronic conditions in postmenopausal women who have had a hysterectomy. (D recommendation).

Characterizing traffic under uncertain disruptions : an experimental approach.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study long-term traffic patterns under uncertain disruptions using : data collected from human subjects who simultaneously make route choices in controlled PC-based : laboratory experiments. Uncertain disruptions t...

Many-objective Groundwater Monitoring Network Design Using Bias-Aware Ensemble Kalman Filtering and Evolutionary Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kollat, J. B.; Reed, P. M.

2009-12-01

This study contributes the ASSIST (Adaptive Strategies for Sampling in Space and Time) framework for improving long-term groundwater monitoring decisions across space and time while accounting for the influences of systematic model errors (or predictive bias). The ASSIST framework combines contaminant flow-and-transport modeling, bias-aware ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) and many-objective evolutionary optimization. Our goal in this work is to provide decision makers with a fuller understanding of the information tradeoffs they must confront when performing long-term groundwater monitoring network design. Our many-objective analysis considers up to 6 design objectives simultaneously and consequently synthesizes prior monitoring network design methodologies into a single, flexible framework. This study demonstrates the ASSIST framework using a tracer study conducted within a physical aquifer transport experimental tank located at the University of Vermont. The tank tracer experiment was extensively sampled to provide high resolution estimates of tracer plume behavior. The simulation component of the ASSIST framework consists of stochastic ensemble flow-and-transport predictions using ParFlow coupled with the Lagrangian SLIM transport model. The ParFlow and SLIM ensemble predictions are conditioned with tracer observations using a bias-aware EnKF. The EnKF allows decision makers to enhance plume transport predictions in space and time in the presence of uncertain and biased model predictions by conditioning them on uncertain measurement data. In this initial demonstration, the position and frequency of sampling were optimized to: (i) minimize monitoring cost, (ii) maximize information provided to the EnKF, (iii) minimize failure to detect the tracer, (iv) maximize the detection of tracer flux, (v) minimize error in quantifying tracer mass, and (vi) minimize error in quantifying the moment of the tracer plume. The results demonstrate that the many-objective problem formulation provides a tremendous amount of information for decision makers. Specifically our many-objective analysis highlights the limitations and potentially negative design consequences of traditional single and two-objective problem formulations. These consequences become apparent through visual exploration of high-dimensional tradeoffs and the identification of regions with interesting compromise solutions. The prediction characteristics of these compromise designs are explored in detail, as well as their implications for subsequent design decisions in both space and time.

[An examination of "Minamata disease general investigation and research liaison council"--The process of making uncertain the organic mercury causal theory].

PubMed

Nakano, Hiroshi

2010-01-01

Minamata disease occurred because inhabitants consumed the polluted seafood. The official confirmation of Minamata disease was in 1956. However, the material cause of that disease was uncertain at that time. The Minamata Food Poisoning Sub-committee, under authority of the Food Hygiene Investigation Committee of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, determined the material cause of Minamata disease to be a certain kind of organic mercury in 1959. The sub-committee was dissolved after their report. The discussion about the investigation of the cause was performed in a conference initiated by the Economic Planning Agency, which was titled "Minamata Disease General Investigation and Research Liaison Council". The Participants were eight scientists; four fishery scientists, two chemists, and only two medical scientists, which implied that only examination of the organic mercury was to be discussion. The conference was held four times from 1960 to 1961. In the first and second conferences, the organic mercury research from a medical perspective progressed in cooperation with fishery sciences. In the third conference, it was reported that UCHIDA Makio, professor of Kumamoto University, had found organic mercury crystal in the shellfish found in Minamata-bay. Authorities of biochemistry and medicine in the third conference criticized UCHIDA's research. At the fourth conference, reports contradicting his research were presented. Although those anti-UCHIDA reports were not verified, AKAHORI Shiro, the highest authority of biochemistry, not only accepted them, but also expressed doubt in the organic mercury causal theory. Therefore, this theory was recognized as uncertain.

Minimizing the regrets of long-term urban floodplain management decisions under deeply uncertain climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, J. S.; Kirshen, P. H.; Vogel, R. M.

2016-12-01

Making long-term floodplain management decisions under uncertain climate change is a major urban planning challenge of the 21stcentury. To support these efforts, we introduce a screening-level optimization model that identifies adaptation portfolios by minimizing the regrets associated with their flood-control and damage costs under different climate change trajectories that are deeply uncertain, i.e. have probabilities that cannot be specified plausibly. This mixed integer program explicitly considers the coupled damage-reduction impacts of different floodwall designs and property-scale investments (first-floor elevation, wet floodproofing of basements, permanent retreat and insurance), recommends implementation schedules, and assesses impacts to stakeholders residing in three types of homes. An application to a stylized municipality illuminates many nonlinear system dynamics stemming from large fixed capital costs, infrastructure design thresholds, and discharge-depth-damage relationships. If stakeholders tolerate mild damage, floodwalls that fully protect a community from large design events are less cost-effective than portfolios featuring both smaller floodwalls and property-scale measures. Potential losses of property tax revenue from permanent retreat motivate municipal property-tax initiatives for adaptation financing. Yet, insurance incentives for first-floor elevation may discourage locally financed floodwalls, in turn making lower-income residents more vulnerable to severe flooding. A budget constraint analysis underscores the benefits of flexible floodwall designs with low incremental expansion costs while near-optimal solutions demonstrate the scheduling flexibility of many property-scale measures. Finally, an equity analysis shows the importance of evaluating the overpayment and under-design regrets of recommended adaptation portfolios for each stakeholder and contrasts them to single-scenario model results.

Hard and Soft Constraints in Reliability-Based Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, L.uis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2006-01-01

This paper proposes a framework for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements in the form of inequality constraints are present. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value and by sets of componentwise bounded uncertain variables. These models, which often arise in engineering problems, allow for a sharp mathematical manipulation. Constraints can be implemented in the hard sense, i.e., constraints must be satisfied for all parameter realizations in the uncertainty model, and in the soft sense, i.e., constraints can be violated by some realizations of the uncertain parameter. In regard to hard constraints, this methodology allows (i) to determine if a hard constraint can be satisfied for a given uncertainty model and constraint structure, (ii) to generate conclusive, formally verifiable reliability assessments that allow for unprejudiced comparisons of competing design alternatives and (iii) to identify the critical combination of uncertain parameters leading to constraint violations. In regard to soft constraints, the methodology allows the designer (i) to use probabilistic uncertainty models, (ii) to calculate upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation, and (iii) to efficiently estimate failure probabilities via a hybrid method. This method integrates the upper bounds, for which closed form expressions are derived, along with conditional sampling. In addition, an l(sub infinity) formulation for the efficient manipulation of hyper-rectangular sets is also proposed.

Dread of uncertain pain: An event-related potential study

PubMed Central

Huang, Yujing; Shang, Qian; Dai, Shenyi; Ma, Qingguo

2017-01-01

Humans experience more stress about uncertain situations than certain situations. However, the neural mechanism underlying the uncertainty of a negative stimulus has not been determined. In the present study, event-related potential was recorded to examine neural responses during the dread of unpredictable pain. We used a cueing paradigm in which predictable cues were always followed by electric shocks, unpredictable cues by electric shocks at a 50/50 ratio and safe cues by no electric shock. Visual analogue scales following electric shocks were presented to quantify subjective anxiety levels. The behavioral results showed that unpredictable cues evoked high-level anxiety compared with predictable cues in both painful and unpainful stimulation conditions. More importantly, the ERPs results revealed that unpredictable cues elicited a larger P200 at parietal sites than predictable cues. In addition, unpredictable cues evoked larger P200 compared with safe cues at frontal electrodes and compared with predictable cues at parietal electrodes. In addition, larger P3b and LPP were observed during perception of safe cues compared with predictable cues at frontal and central electrodes. The similar P3b effect was also revealed in the left sites. The present study underlined that the uncertain dread of pain was associated with threat appraisal process in pain system. These findings on early event-related potentials were significant for a neural marker and development of therapeutic interventions. PMID:28832607

A novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization.

PubMed

Bi, Ya

2015-01-01

Accurately planning the procurement volume is an effective measure for controlling the medicine inventory cost. Due to uncertain demand it is difficult to make accurate decision on procurement volume. As to the biomedicine sensitive to time and season demand, the uncertain demand fitted by the fuzzy mathematics method is obviously better than general random distribution functions. To establish a novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization. A novel optimal management and decision model under uncertain demand has been presented based on fuzzy mathematics and a new comprehensive improved particle swarm algorithm. The optimal management and decision model can effectively reduce the medicine inventory cost. The proposed improved particle swarm optimization is a simple and effective algorithm to improve the Fuzzy interference and hence effectively reduce the calculation complexity of the optimal management and decision model. Therefore the new model can be used for accurate decision on procurement volume under uncertain demand.

Some properties of the filamentary nebula at 1723 - 46

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bedford, D. K.; Elliott, K. H.; Ramsey, B.; Meaburn, J.

1984-01-01

High resolution spectra of the interstellar NaI D2 absorption line have been obtained for seven B-type stars aligned with an extensive filamentary nebula. Very fine filaments have now been found on a high contrast print of a deep H-alpha and forbidden N II plate, making identification as a fossilized remnant probable but uncertain. The inferred age is about 20,000 yr, the distance less than 200 pc, the diameter less than 17.5 pec, but the initial energy is only about 2 x 10 to the 47th erg.

Embryonic Mutant Huntingtin Aggregate Formation in Mouse Models of Huntington's Disease.

PubMed

Osmand, Alexander P; Bichell, Terry Jo; Bowman, Aaron B; Bates, Gillian P

2016-12-15

The role of aggregate formation in the pathophysiology of Huntington's disease (HD) remains uncertain. However, the temporal appearance of aggregates tends to correlate with the onset of symptoms and the numbers of neuropil aggregates correlate with the progression of clinical disease. Using highly sensitive immunohistochemical methods we have detected the appearance of diffuse aggregates during embryonic development in the R6/2 and YAC128 mouse models of HD. These are initially seen in developing axonal tracts and appear to spread throughout the cerebrum in the early neonate.

Price-cap Regulation, Uncertainty and the Price Evolution of New Pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Shajarizadeh, Ali; Hollis, Aidan

2015-08-01

This paper examines the effect of the regulations restricting price increases on the evolution of pharmaceutical prices. A novel theoretical model shows that this policy leads firms to price new drugs with uncertain demand above the expected value initially. Price decreases after drug launch are more likely, the higher the uncertainty. We empirically test the model's predictions using data from the Canadian pharmaceutical market. The level of uncertainty is shown to play a crucial role in drug pricing strategies. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Numerical prediction of a draft tube flow taking into account uncertain inlet conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brugiere, O.; Balarac, G.; Corre, C.; Metais, O.; Flores, E.; Pleroy

2012-11-01

The swirling turbulent flow in a hydroturbine draft tube is computed with a non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) method coupled to Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modelling in order to take into account in the numerical prediction the physical uncertainties existing on the inlet flow conditions. The proposed approach yields not only mean velocity fields to be compared with measured profiles, as is customary in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) practice, but also variance of these quantities from which error bars can be deduced on the computed profiles, thus making more significant the comparison between experiment and computation.

A self-agency bias in preschoolers' causal inferences

PubMed Central

Kushnir, Tamar; Wellman, Henry M.; Gelman, Susan A.

2013-01-01

Preschoolers' causal learning from intentional actions – causal interventions – is subject to a self-agency bias. We propose that this bias is evidence-based; it is responsive to causal uncertainty. In the current studies, two causes (one child-controlled, one experimenter-controlled) were associated with one or two effects, first independently, then simultaneously. When initial independent effects were probabilistic, and thus subsequent simultaneous actions were causally ambiguous, children showed a self-agency bias. Children showed no bias when initial effects were deterministic. Further controls establish that children's self-agency bias is not a wholesale preference but rather is influenced by uncertainty in causal evidence. These results demonstrate that children's own experience of action influences their causal learning, and suggest possible benefits in uncertain and ambiguous everyday learning contexts. PMID:19271843

Effect of chemical kinetics uncertainties on calculated constituents in a tropospheric photochemical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Anne M.; Stewart, Richard W.

1991-01-01

Random photochemical reaction rates are employed in a 1D photochemical model to examine uncertainties in tropospheric concentrations and thereby determine critical kinetic processes and significant correlations. Monte Carlo computations are used to simulate different chemical environments and their related imprecisions. The most critical processes are the primary photodissociation of O3 (which initiates ozone destruction) and NO2 (which initiates ozone formation), and the OH/methane reaction is significant. Several correlations and anticorrelations between species are discussed, and the ozone/transient OH correlation is examined in detail. One important result of the modeling is that estimates of global OH are generally about 25 percent uncertain, limiting the precision of photochemical models. Techniques for reducing the imprecision are discussed which emphasize the use of species and radical species measurements.

Altered subjective reward valuation among female heavy marijuana users.

PubMed

Hefner, Kathryn R; Starr, Mark J

2017-02-01

Maladaptive decision-making is a cardinal feature of drug use, contributing to ongoing use, and reflecting alterations in how drug users assess uncertain reward value. Accumulating evidence indicates the consequences of heavy marijuana use are worse for female versus male animals and humans, but research assessing sex differences in reward-related decision-making among marijuana users remains scarce. We examined sex differences in the subjective valuation of certain and uncertain rewards among heavy marijuana users (52; 26 male and 26 female) and controls (52; 26 male and 26 female). We offered male and female heavy marijuana users and controls monetary rewards of certain and uncertain (probabilistic) values. We measured how preferences for uncertain rewards varied by the objective value of those rewards, moderators of reward uncertainty, Marijuana Group and Sex. Men were more sensitive to changes in the objective value of uncertain rewards than women. However, this effect of Sex differed by Marijuana Group. Female heavy marijuana users were more sensitive to changes in uncertain reward value, particularly when the "stakes" were high (i.e., greater difference between potential uncertain rewards), than female controls. Female heavy marijuana users' sensitivity to changes in the value of high stakes uncertain rewards was comparable to male marijuana users and controls. In contrast, male marijuana users' sensitivity to changes in the value of high stakes uncertain rewards did not differ from male controls. These results suggest sex differences in sensitivity to high risk rewards may be one pathway contributing to severer consequences of heavy marijuana use among women. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Altered subjective reward valuation among female heavy marijuana users

PubMed Central

Hefner, Kathryn R.; Starr, Mark. J.

2016-01-01

Maladaptive decision-making is a cardinal feature of drug use, contributing to ongoing use, and reflecting alterations in how drug users assess uncertain reward value. Accumulating evidence indicates the consequences of heavy marijuana use are worse for female versus male animals and humans, but research assessing sex differences in reward-related decision-making among marijuana users remains scarce. We examined sex differences in the subjective valuation of certain and uncertain rewards among heavy marijuana users (52; 26 male and 26 female) and controls (52; 26 male and 26 female). We offered male and female heavy marijuana users and controls monetary rewards of certain and uncertain (probabilistic) values. We measured how preferences for uncertain rewards varied by the objective value of those rewards, moderators of reward uncertainty, marijuana use, and sex. Men were more sensitive to changes in the objective value of uncertain rewards than women. However, this effect of sex differed by marijuana group. Female heavy marijuana users were more sensitive to changes in uncertain reward value, particularly when the ‘stakes’ were high (i.e., greater difference between potential uncertain rewards), than female controls. Female heavy marijuana users’ sensitivity to changes in the value of high stakes uncertain rewards was comparable to male marijuana users and controls. In contrast, male marijuana users’ sensitivity to changes in the value of high stakes uncertain rewards did not differ from male controls. These results suggest sex differences in sensitivity to high risk rewards may be one pathway contributing to severer consequences of heavy marijuana use among women. PMID:27936816

An industry perspective on commercial radioactive waste disposal conditions and trends.

PubMed

Romano, Stephen A

2006-11-01

The United States is presently served by Class-A, -B and -C low-level radioactive waste and naturally-occurring and accelerator-produced radioactive material disposal sites in Washington and South Carolina; a Class-A and mixed waste disposal site in Utah that also accepts naturally-occurring radioactive material; and hazardous and solid waste facilities and uranium mill tailings sites that accept certain radioactive materials on a site-specific basis. The Washington site only accepts low-level radioactive waste from 11 western states due to interstate Compact restrictions on waste importation. The South Carolina site will be subject to geographic service area restrictions beginning 1 July 2008, after which only three states will have continued access. The Utah site dominates the commercial Class-A and mixed waste disposal market due to generally lower state fees than apply in South Carolina. To expand existing commercial services, an existing hazardous waste site in western Texas is seeking a Class-A, -B and -C and mixed waste disposal license. With that exception, no new Compact facilities are proposed. This fluid, uncertain situation has inspired national level rulemaking initiatives and policy studies, as well as alternative disposal practices for certain low-activity materials.

Novel ID-based anti-collision approach for RFID

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, De-Gan; Li, Wen-Bin

2016-09-01

Novel correlation ID-based (CID) anti-collision approach for RFID under the banner of the Internet of Things (IOT) has been presented in this paper. The key insights are as follows: according to the deterministic algorithms which are based on the binary search tree, we propose a method to increase the association between tags so that tags can initiatively send their own ID under certain trigger conditions, at the same time, we present a multi-tree search method for querying. When the number of tags is small, by replacing the actual ID with the temporary ID, it can greatly reduce the number of times that the reader reads and writes to tag's ID. Active tags send data to the reader by the way of modulation binary pulses. When applying this method to the uncertain ALOHA algorithms, the reader can determine the locations of the empty slots according to the position of the binary pulse, so it can avoid the decrease in efficiency which is caused by reading empty slots when reading slots. Theory and experiment show that this method can greatly improve the recognition efficiency of the system when applied to either the search tree or the ALOHA anti-collision algorithms.

New particle formation and growth from methanesulfonic acid, trimethylamine and water.

PubMed

Chen, Haihan; Ezell, Michael J; Arquero, Kristine D; Varner, Mychel E; Dawson, Matthew L; Gerber, R Benny; Finlayson-Pitts, Barbara J

2015-05-28

New particle formation from gas-to-particle conversion represents a dominant source of atmospheric particles and affects radiative forcing, climate and human health. The species involved in new particle formation and the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain. Although sulfuric acid is commonly recognized as driving new particle formation, increasing evidence suggests the involvement of other species. Here we study particle formation and growth from methanesulfonic acid, trimethylamine and water at reaction times from 2.3 to 32 s where particles are 2-10 nm in diameter using a newly designed and tested flow system. The flow system has multiple inlets to facilitate changing the mixing sequence of gaseous precursors. The relative humidity and precursor concentrations, as well as the mixing sequence, are varied to explore their effects on particle formation and growth in order to provide insight into the important mechanistic steps. We show that water is involved in the formation of initial clusters, greatly enhancing their formation as well as growth into detectable size ranges. A kinetics box model is developed that quantitatively reproduces the experimental data under various conditions. Although the proposed scheme is not definitive, it suggests that incorporating such mechanisms into atmospheric models may be feasible in the near future.

Event-Triggered Distributed Control of Nonlinear Interconnected Systems Using Online Reinforcement Learning With Exploration.

PubMed

Narayanan, Vignesh; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2017-09-07

In this paper, a distributed control scheme for an interconnected system composed of uncertain input affine nonlinear subsystems with event triggered state feedback is presented by using a novel hybrid learning scheme-based approximate dynamic programming with online exploration. First, an approximate solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is generated with event sampled neural network (NN) approximation and subsequently, a near optimal control policy for each subsystem is derived. Artificial NNs are utilized as function approximators to develop a suite of identifiers and learn the dynamics of each subsystem. The NN weight tuning rules for the identifier and event-triggering condition are derived using Lyapunov stability theory. Taking into account, the effects of NN approximation of system dynamics and boot-strapping, a novel NN weight update is presented to approximate the optimal value function. Finally, a novel strategy to incorporate exploration in online control framework, using identifiers, is introduced to reduce the overall cost at the expense of additional computations during the initial online learning phase. System states and the NN weight estimation errors are regulated and local uniformly ultimately bounded results are achieved. The analytical results are substantiated using simulation studies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deshmukh, Ranjit; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Gambhir, Ashwin

Although solar costs are dropping rapidly, solar power is still more expensive than conventional and other renewable energy options. The solar sector still needs continuing government policy support. These policies are driven by objectives that go beyond the goal of achieving grid parity. The need to achieve multiple objectives and ensure sufficient political support for solar power makes it diffi cult for policy makers to design the optimal solar power policy. The dynamic and uncertain nature of the solar industry, combined with the constraints offered by broader economic, political and social conditions further complicates the task of policy making. Thismore » report presents an analysis of solar promotion policies in seven countries - Germany, Spain, the United States, Japan, China, Taiwan, and India - in terms of their outlook, objectives, policy mechanisms and outcomes. The report presents key insights, primarily in qualitative terms, and recommendations for two distinct audiences. The first audience consists of global policy makers who are exploring various mechanisms to increase the penetration of solar power in markets to mitigate climate change. The second audience consists of key Indian policy makers who are developing a long-term implementation plan under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission and various state initiatives.« less

Using Bayesian Networks and Decision Theory to Model Physical Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-02-01

Home automation technologies allow a person to monitor and control various activities within a home or office setting. Cameras, sensors and other...components used along with the simple rules in the home automation software provide an environment where the lights, security and other appliances can be...monitored and controlled. These home automation technologies, however, lack the power to reason under uncertain conditions and thus the system can

Development and Evaluation of Fault-Tolerant Flight Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Yong D.; Gupta, Kajal (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

The research is concerned with developing a new approach to enhancing fault tolerance of flight control systems. The original motivation for fault-tolerant control comes from the need for safe operation of control elements (e.g. actuators) in the event of hardware failures in high reliability systems. One such example is modem space vehicle subjected to actuator/sensor impairments. A major task in flight control is to revise the control policy to balance impairment detectability and to achieve sufficient robustness. This involves careful selection of types and parameters of the controllers and the impairment detecting filters used. It also involves a decision, upon the identification of some failures, on whether and how a control reconfiguration should take place in order to maintain a certain system performance level. In this project new flight dynamic model under uncertain flight conditions is considered, in which the effects of both ramp and jump faults are reflected. Stabilization algorithms based on neural network and adaptive method are derived. The control algorithms are shown to be effective in dealing with uncertain dynamics due to external disturbances and unpredictable faults. The overall strategy is easy to set up and the computation involved is much less as compared with other strategies. Computer simulation software is developed. A serious of simulation studies have been conducted with varying flight conditions.

Assessment of the Relationship Between Flexibility and Adaptive Capacity in Flood Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiFrancesco, K.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

Discussions around adapting water management systems to future changes often state the need to increase system flexibility. Intuitively, a flexible, easily modifiable system seems desirable when faced with a wide range of uncertain, but plausible future conditions. Yet, despite the frequent use of the terms flexibility, very little work has examined what exactly it means to have a flexible water management system, what makes one system more flexible than another, or the extent to which flexibility increases adaptive capacity. This study applies a methodology for assessing the inherent flexibility of the structural and non-structural components of flood management systems using original flexibility metrics in the categories of: slack, intensity, connectivity, adjustability, and coordination. We use these metrics to assess the flexibility of three sub-systems within the Sacramento Valley flood management system in California, USA under current system conditions as well as with proposed management actions in place. We then assess the range of hydrologic conditions under which each sub-system can meet flood risk targets in order to determine whether more flexible systems are also more robust and able to perform over a wider range of hydrologic conditions. In doing so, we identify flexible characteristics of flood management systems that enhance the ability of the system to preform over a wide range of conditions making them better suited to adapt to an uncertain hydrologic future. We find that the flexibility characteristics that increase the range of conditions under which the system can meet performance goals varies depending on whether the region is considered urban, rural, or a small community. In some cases, a decrease in certain flexibility characteristics is associated with an increase in robustness, indicating that more flexibility is not always desirable. Future work will assess the transferability of these results to other regions and systems.

Adaptive route choice modeling in uncertain traffic networks with real-time information.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study travelers' route choice behavior in uncertain traffic networks : with real-time information. The research is motivated by two observations of the traffic system: 1) : the system is inherently uncertain with r...

Re-evaluation of the sorption behaviour of Bromide and Sulfamethazine under field conditions using leaching data and modelling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gassmann, Matthias; Olsson, Oliver; Höper, Heinrich; Hamscher, Gerd; Kümmerer, Klaus

2016-04-01

The simulation of reactive transport in the aquatic environment is hampered by the ambiguity of environmental fate process conceptualizations for a specific substance in the literature. Concepts are usually identified by experimental studies and inverse modelling under controlled lab conditions in order to reduce environmental uncertainties such as uncertain boundary conditions and input data. However, since environmental conditions affect substance behaviour, a re-evaluation might be necessary under environmental conditions which might, in turn, be affected by uncertainties. Using a combination of experimental data and simulations of the leaching behaviour of the veterinary antibiotic Sulfamethazine (SMZ; synonym: sulfadimidine) and the hydrological tracer Bromide (Br) in a field lysimeter, we re-evaluated the sorption concepts of both substances under uncertain field conditions. Sampling data of a field lysimeter experiment in which both substances were applied twice a year with manure and sampled at the bottom of two lysimeters during three subsequent years was used for model set-up and evaluation. The total amount of leached SMZ and Br were 22 μg and 129 mg, respectively. A reactive transport model was parameterized to the conditions of the two lysimeters filled with monoliths (depth 2 m, area 1 m²) of a sandy soil showing a low pH value under which Bromide is sorptive. We used different sorption concepts such as constant and organic-carbon dependent sorption coefficients and instantaneous and kinetic sorption equilibrium. Combining the sorption concepts resulted in four scenarios per substance with different equations for sorption equilibrium and sorption kinetics. The GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) method was applied to each scenario using parameter ranges found in experimental and modelling studies. The parameter spaces for each scenario were sampled using a Latin Hypercube method which was refined around local model efficiency maxima. Results of the cumulative SMZ leaching simulations suggest a best conceptualization combination of instantaneous sorption to organic carbon which is consistent with the literature. The best Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (Neff) was 0.96 and the 5th and 95th percentile of the uncertainty estimation were 18 and 27 μg. In contrast, both scenarios of kinetic Br sorption had similar results (Neff =0.99, uncertainty bounds 110-176 mg and 112-176 mg) but were clearly better than instantaneous sorption scenarios. Therefore, only the concept of sorption kinetics could be identified for Br modelling whereas both tested sorption equilibrium coefficient concepts performed equally well. The reasons for this specific case of equifinality may be uncertainties of model input data under field conditions or an insensitivity of the sorption equilibrium method due to relatively low adsorption of Br. Our results show that it may be possible to identify or at least falsify specific sorption concepts under uncertain field conditions using a long-term leaching experiment and modelling methods. Cases of environmental fate concept equifinality arouse the possibility of future model structure uncertainty analysis using an ensemble of models with different environmental fate concepts.

Error tracking control for underactuated overhead cranes against arbitrary initial payload swing angles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Menghua; Ma, Xin; Rong, Xuewen; Tian, Xincheng; Li, Yibin

2017-02-01

This paper exploits an error tracking control method for overhead crane systems for which the error trajectories for the trolley and the payload swing can be pre-specified. The proposed method does not require that the initial payload swing angle remains zero, whereas this requirement is usually assumed in conventional methods. The significant feature of the proposed method is its superior control performance as well as its strong robustness over different or uncertain rope lengths, payload masses, desired positions, initial payload swing angles, and external disturbances. Owing to the same attenuation behavior, the desired error trajectory for the trolley for each traveling distance is not needed to be reset, which is easy to implement in practical applications. By converting the error tracking overhead crane dynamics to the objective system, we obtain the error tracking control law for arbitrary initial payload swing angles. Lyapunov techniques and LaSalle's invariance theorem are utilized to prove the convergence and stability of the closed-loop system. Simulation and experimental results are illustrated to validate the superior performance of the proposed error tracking control method.

ACCF/ASE/AHA/ASNC/HFSA/HRS/SCAI/SCCM/SCCT/SCMR 2011 Appropriate Use Criteria for Echocardiography. A Report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation Appropriate Use Criteria Task Force, American Society of Echocardiography, American Heart Association, American Society of Nuclear Cardiology, Heart Failure Society of America, Heart Rhythm Society, Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions, Society of Critical Care Medicine, Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography, Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance American College of Chest Physicians.

PubMed

Douglas, Pamela S; Garcia, Mario J; Haines, David E; Lai, Wyman W; Manning, Warren J; Patel, Ayan R; Picard, Michael H; Polk, Donna M; Ragosta, Michael; Parker Ward, R; Weiner, Rory B

2011-03-01

The American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF), in partnership with the American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) and along with key specialty and subspecialty societies, conducted a review of common clinical scenarios where echocardiography is frequently considered. This document combines and updates the original transthoracic and transesophageal echocardiography appropriateness criteria published in 2007 (1) and the original stress echocardiography appropriateness criteria published in 2008 (2). This revision reflects new clinical data, reflects changes in test utilization patterns,and clarifies echocardiography use where omissions or lack of clarity existed in the original criteria.The indications (clinical scenarios)were derived from common applications or anticipated uses, as well as from current clinical practice guidelines and results of studies examining the implementation of the original appropriate use criteria (AUC).The 202 indications in this document were developed by a diverse writing group and scored by a separate independent technical panel on a scale of 1 to 9,to designate appropriate use(median 7 to 9), uncertain use(median 4 to 6), and inappropriate use (median 1 to 3). Ninety-seven indications were rated as appropriate, 34 were rated as uncertain, and 71 were rated as inappropriate. In general,the use of echocardiography for initial diagnosis when there is a change in clinical status or when the results of the echocardiogram are anticipated to change patient management were rated appropriate. Routine testing when there was no change in clinical status or when results of testing were unlikely to modify management were more likely to be inappropriate than appropriate/uncertain.The AUC for echocardiography have the potential to impact physician decision making,healthcare delivery, and reimbursement policy. Furthermore,recognition of uncertain clinical scenarios facilitates identification of areas that would benefit from future research.

Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

2017-02-01

Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

The treatment of mixing in core helium-burning models - III. Suppressing core breathing pulses with a new constraint on overshoot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constantino, Thomas; Campbell, Simon W.; Lattanzio, John C.

2017-12-01

Theoretical predictions for the core helium burning phase of stellar evolution are highly sensitive to the uncertain treatment of mixing at convective boundaries. In the last few years, interest in constraining the uncertain structure of their deep interiors has been renewed by insights from asteroseismology. Recently, Spruit proposed a limit for the rate of growth of helium-burning convective cores based on the higher buoyancy of material ingested from outside the convective core. In this paper we test the implications of such a limit for stellar models with a range of initial mass and metallicity. We find that the constraint on mixing beyond the Schwarzschild boundary has a significant effect on the evolution late in core helium burning, when core breathing pulses occur and the ingestion rate of helium is fastest. Ordinarily, core breathing pulses prolong the core helium burning lifetime to such an extent that models are at odds with observations of globular cluster populations. Across a wide range of initial stellar masses (0.83 ≤ M/M⊙ ≤ 5), applying the Spruit constraint reduces the core helium burning lifetime because core breathing pulses are either avoided or their number and severity reduced. The constraint suggested by Spruit therefore helps to resolve significant discrepancies between observations and theoretical predictions. Specifically, we find improved agreement for R2 (the observed ratio of asymptotic giant branch to horizontal branch stars in globular clusters), the luminosity difference between these two groups, and in asteroseismology, the mixed-mode period spacing detected in red clump stars in the Kepler field.

Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty.

PubMed

Cui, Jinshu; Rosoff, Heather; John, Richard S

2018-05-01

Many studies have investigated public reactions to nuclear accidents. However, few studies focused on more common events when a serious accident could have happened but did not. This study evaluated public response (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) over three phases of a near-miss nuclear accident. Simulating a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, we manipulated (1) attribution for the initial cause of the incident (software failure vs. cyber terrorist attack vs. earthquake), (2) attribution for halting the incident (fail-safe system design vs. an intervention by an individual expert vs. a chance coincidence), and (3) level of uncertainty (certain vs. uncertain) about risk of a future radiation leak after the LOCA is halted. A total of 773 respondents were sampled using a 3 × 3 × 2 between-subjects design. Results from both MANCOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that respondents experienced more negative affect, perceived more risk, and expressed more avoidance behavioral intention when the near-miss event was initiated by an external attributed source (e.g., earthquake) compared to an internally attributed source (e.g., software failure). Similarly, respondents also indicated greater negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavioral intentions when the future impact of the near-miss incident on people and the environment remained uncertain. Results from SEM analyses also suggested that negative affect predicted risk perception, and both predicted avoidance behavior. Affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior demonstrated high stability (i.e., reliability) from one phase to the next. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Clinical Significance of Occult Gastrointestinal Primary Tumours in Metastatic Cancer: A Population Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Hannouf, Malek B; Winquist, Eric; Mahmud, Salaheddin M; Brackstone, Muriel; Sarma, Sisira; Rodrigues, George; Rogan, Peter K; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Zaric, Gregory S

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of occult gastrointestinal (GI) primary tumours in patients with metastatic cancer of uncertain primary origin and evaluate their influence on treatments and overall survival (OS). We used population heath data from Manitoba, Canada to identify all patients initially diagnosed with metastatic cancer between 2002 and 2011. We defined patients to have "occult" primary tumour if the primary was found at least 6 months after initial diagnosis. Otherwise, we considered primary tumours as "obvious." We used propensity-score methods to match each patient with occult GI tumour to four patients with obvious GI tumour on all known clinicopathologic features. We compared treatments and 2-year survival data between the two patient groups and assessed treatment effect on OS using Cox regression adjustment. Eighty-three patients had occult GI primary tumours, accounting for 17.6% of men and 14% of women with metastatic cancer of uncertain primary. A 1:4 matching created a matched group of 332 patients with obvious GI primary tumour. Occult cases compared to the matched group were less likely to receive surgical interventions and targeted biological therapy, and more likely to receive cytotoxic empiric chemotherapeutic agents. Having an occult GI tumour was associated with reduced OS and appeared to be a nonsignificant independent predictor of OS when adjusting for treatment differences. GI tumours are the most common occult primary tumours in men and the second most common in women. Patients with occult GI primary tumours are potentially being undertreated with available GI site-specific and targeted therapies.

Discharge Planning in Chronic Conditions

PubMed Central

McMartin, K

2013-01-01

Background Chronically ill people experience frequent changes in health status accompanied by multiple transitions between care settings and care providers. Discharge planning provides support services, follow-up activities, and other interventions that span pre-hospital discharge to post-hospital settings. Objective To determine if discharge planning is effective at reducing health resource utilization and improving patient outcomes compared with standard care alone. Data Sources A standard systematic literature search was conducted for studies published from January 1, 2004, until December 13, 2011. Review Methods Reports, randomized controlled trials, systematic reviews, and meta-analyses with 1 month or more of follow-up and limited to specified chronic conditions were examined. Outcomes included mortality/survival, readmissions and emergency department (ED) visits, hospital length of stay (LOS), health-related quality of life (HRQOL), and patient satisfaction. Results One meta-analysis compared individualized discharge planning to usual care and found a significant reduction in readmissions favouring individualized discharge planning. A second meta-analysis compared comprehensive discharge planning with postdischarge support to usual care. There was a significant reduction in readmissions favouring discharge planning with postdischarge support. However, there was significant statistical heterogeneity. For both meta-analyses there was a nonsignificant reduction in mortality between the study arms. Limitations There was difficulty in distinguishing the relative contribution of each element within the terms “discharge planning” and “postdischarge support.” For most studies, “usual care” was not explicitly described. Conclusions Compared with usual care, there was moderate quality evidence that individualized discharge planning is more effective at reducing readmissions or hospital LOS but not mortality, and very low quality evidence that it is more effective at improving HRQOL or patient satisfaction. Compared with usual care, there was low quality evidence that the discharge planning plus postdischarge support is more effective at reducing readmissions but not more effective at reducing hospital LOS or mortality. There was very low quality evidence that it is more effective at improving HRQOL or patient satisfaction. Plain Language Summary Chronically ill people experience frequent changes in their health status and multiple transitions between care settings and care providers (e.g., hospital to home). Discharge planning provides support services, follow-up activities and other interventions that span pre-hospital discharge to post-hospital settings. A review of the effects of different discharge plans was conducted. After searching for relevant studies, 11 studies were found that compared discharge planning with routine discharge care. This review indicates that: Individualized discharge planning reduces initial hospital length of stay and subsequent readmission to hospital but does not reduce mortality. The effect on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) or patient satisfaction is uncertain. Discharge planning plus postdischarge support reduces readmissions but does not reduce the initial hospital length of stay or mortality after discharge. The effect on HRQOL or patient satisfaction is uncertain. PMID:24167538

Environmental hedging: A theory and method for reconciling reservoir operations for downstream ecology and water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, L. E.; Lund, J. R.; Moyle, P. B.; Quiñones, R. M.; Herman, J. D.; O'Rear, T. A.

2017-09-01

Building reservoir release schedules to manage engineered river systems can involve costly trade-offs between storing and releasing water. As a result, the design of release schedules requires metrics that quantify the benefit and damages created by releases to the downstream ecosystem. Such metrics should support making operational decisions under uncertain hydrologic conditions, including drought and flood seasons. This study addresses this need and develops a reservoir operation rule structure and method to maximize downstream environmental benefit while meeting human water demands. The result is a general approach for hedging downstream environmental objectives. A multistage stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear program with Markov Chains, identifies optimal "environmental hedging," releases to maximize environmental benefits subject to probabilistic seasonal hydrologic conditions, current, past, and future environmental demand, human water supply needs, infrastructure limitations, population dynamics, drought storage protection, and the river's carrying capacity. Environmental hedging "hedges bets" for drought by reducing releases for fish, sometimes intentionally killing some fish early to reduce the likelihood of large fish kills and storage crises later. This approach is applied to Folsom reservoir in California to support survival of fall-run Chinook salmon in the lower American River for a range of carryover and initial storage cases. Benefit is measured in terms of fish survival; maintaining self-sustaining native fish populations is a significant indicator of ecosystem function. Environmental hedging meets human demand and outperforms other operating rules, including the current Folsom operating strategy, based on metrics of fish extirpation and water supply reliability.

Molecular Abundances in the Disk of AN Active Galactic Nucleus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harada, N.; Thompson, T. A.; Herbst, E.

2011-06-01

There are galactic nuclei that emit high luminosities L˜1044-46 erg S-1 including luminosity produced by X-rays from high mass accretion onto the central black holes. These nuclei are called active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and they are accompanied by molecular disks. Observations show high abundances of CN and HCN in the disks; the molecules are proposed to be probes of X-ray dominated regions (XDRs) created by the X-rays from AGNs. We have constructed a spatially-dependent chemical-abundance model of the molecular disk in NGC 1068, a typical AGN-dominated galaxy. Recently, new observations of CN and HCN have been made at much higher spatial resolution, and there are also detections of polyatomic molecules such as HC3N, c-C3H2, and C2H. We discuss how these observations and our simulations can help us to better understand the physical conditions, the disk structure, and conditions for star formation within molecular disks, which are still uncertain. We also include a comparison with other types of galaxies such as (ultra-) luminous infrared galaxies. Usero et al.Astronomy and Astrophysics. 419 (897), 2004. Initial results were presented at the International Symposium on Molecular Spectroscopy 2010, RF05 Garcia-Burillo et al. Astronomy and Astrophysics. 519 (2), 2010. Garcia-Burillo et al. Journal of Physics Conference Series, 131 (12031), 2008. Costagliola et al. ArXiv e-print arXiv:1101.2122, 2011. Nakajima et al. Astrophysical Journal Letters 728 (L38), 2008.

Slowness in Movement Initiation is Associated with Proactive Inhibitory Network Dysfunction in Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Criaud, Marion; Poisson, Alice; Thobois, Stéphane; Metereau, Elise; Redouté, Jérôme; Ibarrola, Danièle; Baraduc, Pierre; Broussolle, Emmanuel; Strafella, Antonio P; Ballanger, Bénédicte; Boulinguez, Philippe

2016-04-02

Impairment in initiating movements in PD might be related to executive dysfunction associated with abnormal proactive inhibitory control, a pivotal mechanism consisting in gating movement initiation in uncertain contexts. Testing this hypothesis on the basis of direct neural-based evidence. Twelve PD patients on antiparkinsonian medication and fifteen matched healthy controls performed a simple reaction time task during event-related functional MRI scanning. For all subjects, the level of activation of SMA was found to predict RT on a trial-by-trial basis. The increase in movement initiation latency observed in PD patients with regard to controls was associated with pre-stimulus BOLD increases within several nodes of the proactive inhibitory network (caudate nucleus, precuneus, thalamus). These results provide physiological data consistent with impaired control of proactive inhibition over motor initiation in PD. Patients would be locked into a mode of control maintaining anticipated inhibition over willed movements even when the situation does not require action restraint. The functional and neurochemical bases of brain activity associated with executive settings need to be addressed thoroughly in future studies to better understand disabling symptoms that have few therapeutic options like akinesia.

Computational Precision of Mental Inference as Critical Source of Human Choice Suboptimality.

PubMed

Drugowitsch, Jan; Wyart, Valentin; Devauchelle, Anne-Dominique; Koechlin, Etienne

2016-12-21

Making decisions in uncertain environments often requires combining multiple pieces of ambiguous information from external cues. In such conditions, human choices resemble optimal Bayesian inference, but typically show a large suboptimal variability whose origin remains poorly understood. In particular, this choice suboptimality might arise from imperfections in mental inference rather than in peripheral stages, such as sensory processing and response selection. Here, we dissociate these three sources of suboptimality in human choices based on combining multiple ambiguous cues. Using a novel quantitative approach for identifying the origin and structure of choice variability, we show that imperfections in inference alone cause a dominant fraction of suboptimal choices. Furthermore, two-thirds of this suboptimality appear to derive from the limited precision of neural computations implementing inference rather than from systematic deviations from Bayes-optimal inference. These findings set an upper bound on the accuracy and ultimate predictability of human choices in uncertain environments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nucleotide synthetase ribozymes may have emerged first in the RNA world

PubMed Central

Ma, Wentao; Yu, Chunwu; Zhang, Wentao; Hu, Jiming

2007-01-01

Though the “RNA world” hypothesis has gained a central role in ideas concerning the origin of life, the scenario concerning its emergence remains uncertain. It has been speculated that the first scene may have been the emergence of a template-dependent RNA synthetase ribozyme, which catalyzed its own replication: thus, “RNA replicase.” However, the speculation remains uncertain, primarily because of the large sequence length requirement of such a replicase and the lack of a convincing mechanism to ensure its self-favoring features. Instead, we propose a nucleotide synthetase ribozyme as an alternative candidate, especially considering recent experimental evidence suggesting the possibility of effective nonenzymatic template-directed synthesis of RNA. A computer simulation was conducted to support our proposal. The conditions for the emergence of the nucleotide synthetase ribozyme are discussed, based on dynamic analysis on a computer. We suggest the template-dependent RNA synthetase ribozyme emerged later, perhaps after the emergence of protocells. PMID:17878321

Research with Pregnant Women: New Insights on Legal Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Mastroianni, Anna C.; Henry, Leslie Meltzer; Robinson, David; Bailey, Theodore; Faden, Ruth R.; Little, Margaret O.; Lyerly, Anne Drapkin

2017-01-01

Although pregnant women rely on medical interventions to treat and prevent a wide variety of health conditions, they are frequently excluded or underrepresented in clinical research. The resulting dearth of pregnancy-specific evidence to guide clinical decisionmaking routinely exposes pregnant women, and their future offspring, to risk of uncertain harms for uncertain benefits. The two legal factors regularly cited as obstacles to such research are the federal regulatory scheme and fear of liability. This article reveals a far more nuanced and complex view of the legal context. First, legal professionals may—at any time from product conception to marketing—influence decisions about research with pregnant women. Second, factors not previously articulated in the literature may prompt legal professionals to slow or halt such research. They include: financial interests, regulatory ambiguity, obstacles to risk management, and site-specific laws unrelated to research. Any efforts to promote the ethical inclusion of pregnant women in research must acknowledge the role of legal decisionmakers and address their professional concerns. PMID:28543423

Designing a capacitated multi-configuration logistics network under disturbances and parameter uncertainty: a real-world case of a drug supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shishebori, Davood; Babadi, Abolghasem Yousefi

2018-03-01

This study investigates the reliable multi-configuration capacitated logistics network design problem (RMCLNDP) under system disturbances, which relates to locating facilities, establishing transportation links, and also allocating their limited capacities to the customers conducive to provide their demand on the minimum expected total cost (including locating costs, link constructing costs, and also expected costs in normal and disturbance conditions). In addition, two types of risks are considered; (I) uncertain environment, (II) system disturbances. A two-level mathematical model is proposed for formulating of the mentioned problem. Also, because of the uncertain parameters of the model, an efficacious possibilistic robust optimization approach is utilized. To evaluate the model, a drug supply chain design (SCN) is studied. Finally, an extensive sensitivity analysis was done on the critical parameters. The obtained results show that the efficiency of the proposed approach is suitable and is worthwhile for analyzing the real practical problems.

In Silico Systems Biology Analysis of Variants of Uncertain Significance in Lynch Syndrome Supports the Prioritization of Functional Molecular Validation.

PubMed

Borras, Ester; Chang, Kyle; Pande, Mala; Cuddy, Amanda; Bosch, Jennifer L; Bannon, Sarah A; Mork, Maureen E; Rodriguez-Bigas, Miguel A; Taggart, Melissa W; Lynch, Patrick M; You, Y Nancy; Vilar, Eduardo

2017-10-01

Lynch syndrome (LS) is a genetic condition secondary to germline alterations in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes with 30% of changes being variants of uncertain significance (VUS). Our aim was to perform an in silico reclassification of VUS from a large single institutional cohort that will help prioritizing functional validation. A total of 54 VUS were detected with 33 (61%) novel variants. We integrated family history, pathology, and genetic information along with supporting evidence from eight different in silico tools at the RNA and protein level. Our assessment allowed us to reclassify 54% (29/54) of the VUS as probably damaging, 13% (7/54) as possibly damaging, and 28% (15/54) as probably neutral. There are more than 1,000 VUS reported in MMR genes and our approach facilitates the prioritization of further functional efforts to assess the pathogenicity to those classified as probably damaging. Cancer Prev Res; 10(10); 580-7. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

PubMed

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

Feedback Blunting: Total Sleep Deprivation Impairs Decision Making that Requires Updating Based on Feedback.

PubMed

Whitney, Paul; Hinson, John M; Jackson, Melinda L; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2015-05-01

To better understand the sometimes catastrophic effects of sleep loss on naturalistic decision making, we investigated effects of sleep deprivation on decision making in a reversal learning paradigm requiring acquisition and updating of information based on outcome feedback. Subjects were randomized to a sleep deprivation or control condition, with performance testing at baseline, after 2 nights of total sleep deprivation (or rested control), and following 2 nights of recovery sleep. Subjects performed a decision task involving initial learning of go and no go response sets followed by unannounced reversal of contingencies, requiring use of outcome feedback for decisions. A working memory scanning task and psychomotor vigilance test were also administered. Six consecutive days and nights in a controlled laboratory environment with continuous behavioral monitoring. Twenty-six subjects (22-40 y of age; 10 women). Thirteen subjects were randomized to a 62-h total sleep deprivation condition; the others were controls. Unlike controls, sleep deprived subjects had difficulty with initial learning of go and no go stimuli sets and had profound impairment adapting to reversal. Skin conductance responses to outcome feedback were diminished, indicating blunted affective reactions to feedback accompanying sleep deprivation. Working memory scanning performance was not significantly affected by sleep deprivation. And although sleep deprived subjects showed expected attentional lapses, these could not account for impairments in reversal learning decision making. Sleep deprivation is particularly problematic for decision making involving uncertainty and unexpected change. Blunted reactions to feedback while sleep deprived underlie failures to adapt to uncertainty and changing contingencies. Thus, an error may register, but with diminished effect because of reduced affective valence of the feedback or because the feedback is not cognitively bound with the choice. This has important implications for understanding and managing sleep loss-induced cognitive impairment in emergency response, disaster management, military operations, and other dynamic real-world settings with uncertain outcomes and imperfect information. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Meaning of living with severe chronic obstructive lung disease: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

Marx, Gabriella; Nasse, Maximilian; Stanze, Henrikje; Boakye, Sonja Owusu; Nauck, Friedemann; Schneider, Nils

2016-01-01

Objectives To explore what it means for patients to live with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as an incurable and constantly progressing disease. Design Qualitative longitudinal study using narrative and semistructured interviews. This paper presents findings of the initial interviews. Analysis using grounded theory. Setting Lung care clinics and community care in Lower Saxony, Germany. Participants 17 patients with advanced-stage COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) III/IV). Findings Analysis shows that these patients have difficulties accepting their life situation and feel at the mercy of the disease, which could be identified as a core-experienced phenomenon. Over a long period of time, patients have only a vague feeling of being ill, caused by uncertain knowledge, slow progress and doubtful attribution of clinical symptoms of the disease (causal conditions). As an action strategy, patients try to maintain daily routines for as long as possible after diagnosis. Both effective standard and rescue medication, which helps to reduce breathlessness and other symptoms, and the feeling of being faced with one's own responsibility (intervening conditions) support this strategy, whereby patients' own responsibility is too painful to acknowledge. As a consequence, patients try to deny the threat to life for a long period of time. Frequently, they need to experience facing their own limits, often in the form of an acute crisis, to realise their health situation. The experience of the illness is contextualised by a continuous increase in limited mobility and social isolation. Conclusion In order to help patients to improve disease awareness, to accept their life situation and to improve their reduced quality of life, patients may benefit from the early integration of palliative care (PC), considering its multiprofessional patient-centred and team-centred approach. Psychological support and volunteer work, which are relevant aspects of PC, should be appropriate to address psychosocial needs. More research is needed to evaluate how patients could benefit from early PC. PMID:27932338

Accuracy of the initial endoscopic diagnosis in the discrimination of gastric ulcers: is endoscopic follow-up study always needed?

PubMed

Bustamante, Marco; Devesa, Francesc; Borghol, Abdul; Ortuño, Juan; Ferrando, Maria Jose

2002-07-01

Endoscopic follow-up study of gastric ulcers has been recommended routinely because of the possibility that a gastric neoplasm will be missed in the initial endoscopy. Some authors, most of them reporting data from areas of low gastric carcinoma incidence, have questioned this policy because of the low numbers of curable cancers detected and the high cost of such a program. To assess the accuracy of endoscopy diagnosis of gastric ulcers, and to evaluate the efficacy and cost of a gastric ulcer follow-up endoscopic program in an area with an intermediate incidence rate of gastric cancer. A retrospective study was used to identify all the gastroscopies in which a gastric ulcer had been diagnosed during a 6-year period. The endoscopic impression was compared with the histologic diagnosis, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the likelihood ratio. Patients who completed a follow-up program also were reviewed. For each neoplasm discovered, the number of endoscopies and global cost were calculated. In the 741 gastroscopies performed, 547 gastric ulcers were diagnosed in 529 patients. Biopsies were taken in 330 patients, in whom 341 gastric ulcers were found. At the index endoscopy, 41 gastric neoplasms (12.4%) were diagnosed. The accuracy of endoscopic malignancy diagnosis was as follows: positive predictive value of 0.68, negative predictive value of 0.98, sensitivity of 0.82, and specificity of 0.95. The likelihood ratio was 16. A total of 117 patients completed the follow-up program. Three new cases of gastric cancer (2.6%) were identified. In these three cases, the initial opinion of the endoscopist was uncertain. In the authors' experience, the cost of each gastric cancer diagnosed has been $4.653 (U.S. dollars). The endoscopic impression correlates with the histologic diagnosis even in a area of intermediate gastric cancer incidence. Endoscopic follow-up study may be restricted to cases of uncertain or malignant endoscopic impression.

What Makes Children Defy Majorities? The Role of Dissenters in Chinese and Spanish Preschoolers' Social Judgments.

PubMed

Enesco, Ileana; Sebastián-Enesco, Carla; Guerrero, Silvia; Quan, Siyu; Garijo, Sonia

2016-01-01

When many people say the same thing, the individual is more likely to endorse this information than when just a single person says the same. Yet, the influence of consensus information may be modulated by many personal, contextual and cultural variables. Here, we study the sensitivity of Chinese ( N = 68) and Spanish ( N = 82) preschoolers to consensus in social decision making contexts. Children faced two different types of peer-interaction events, which involved (1) uncertain or ambiguous scenarios open to interpretation (social interpretation context), and (2) explicit scenarios depicting the exclusion of a peer (moral judgment context). Children first observed a video in which a group of teachers offered their opinion about the events, and then they were asked to evaluate the information provided. Participants were assigned to two conditions that differed in the type of consensus: Unanimous majority ( non-dissenter condition) and non-unanimous majority ( dissenter condition). In the dissenter condition, we presented the conflicting opinions of three teachers vs. one teacher. In the non-dissenter condition, we presented the unanimous opinion of three teachers. The general results indicated that children's sensitivity to consensus varies depending both on the degree of ambiguity of the social events and the presence or not of a dissenter: (1) Children were much more likely to endorse the majority view when they were uncertain (social interpretation context), than when they already had a clear interpretation of the situation (moral judgment context); (2) The presence of a dissenter resulted in a significant decrease in children's confidence in majority. Interestingly, in the moral judgment context, Chinese and Spanish children differed in their willingness to defy a majority whose opinion run against their own. While Spanish children maintained their own criteria regardless of the type of condition, Chinese children did so when an "allied" dissenter was present (dissenter condition) but not when confronting a unanimous majority (non-dissenter condition). Tentatively, we suggest that this difference might be related to culture-specific patterns regarding children's deference toward adults.

The early Earth atmosphere and early life catalysts.

PubMed

Ramírez Jiménez, Sandra Ignacia

2014-01-01

Homochirality is a property of living systems on Earth. The time, the place, and the way in which it appeared are uncertain. In a prebiotic scenario two situations are of interest: either an initial small bias for handedness of some biomolecules arouse and progressed with life, or an initial slight excess led to the actual complete dominance of the known chiral molecules. A definitive answer can probably never be given, neither from the fields of physics and chemistry nor biology. Some arguments can be advanced to understand if homochirality is necessary for the initiation of a prebiotic homochiral polymer chemistry, if this homochirality is suggesting a unique origin of life, or if a chiral template such as a mineral surface is always required to result in an enantiomeric excess. A general description of the early Earth scenario will be presented in this chapter, followed by a general description of some clays, and their role as substrates to allow the concentration and amplification of some of the building blocks of life.

Radiosensitivity of cancer-initiating cells and normal stem cells (or what the Heisenberg uncertainly principle has to do with biology).

PubMed

Woodward, Wendy Ann; Bristow, Robert Glen

2009-04-01

Mounting evidence suggests that parallels between normal stem cell biology and cancer biology may provide new targets for cancer therapy. Prospective identification and isolation of cancer-initiating cells from solid tumors has promoted the descriptive and functional identification of these cells allowing for characterization of their response to contemporary cancer therapies, including chemotherapy and radiation. In clinical radiation therapy, the failure to clinically eradicate all tumor cells (eg, a lack of response, partial response, or nonpermanent complete response by imaging) is considered a treatment failure. As such, biologists have explored the characteristics of the small population of clonogenic cancer cells that can survive and are capable of repopulating the tumor after subcurative therapy. Herein, we discuss the convergence of these clonogenic studies with contemporary radiosensitivity studies that use cell surface markers to identify cancer-initiating cells. Implications for and uncertainties regarding incorporation of these concepts into the practice of modern radiation oncology are discussed.

Measurement Marker Recognition In A Time Sequence Of Infrared Images For Biomedical Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorini, A. R.; Fumero, R.; Marchesi, R.

1986-03-01

In thermographic measurements, quantitative surface temperature evaluation is often uncertain. The main reason is in the lack of available reference points in transient conditions. Reflective markers were used for automatic marker recognition and pixel coordinate computations. An algorithm selects marker icons to match marker references where particular luminance conditions are satisfied. Automatic marker recognition allows luminance compensation and temperature calibration of recorded infrared images. A biomedical application is presented: the dynamic behaviour of the surface temperature distributions is investigated in order to study the performance of two different pumping systems for extracorporeal circulation. Sequences of images are compared and results are discussed. Finally, the algorithm allows to monitor the experimental environment and to alert for the presence of unusual experimental conditions.

Chronic gastritis - an update.

PubMed

Varbanova, Mariya; Frauenschläger, Katrin; Malfertheiner, Peter

2014-12-01

Helicobacter pylori is the main aetiologic factor for chronic gastritis worldwide. The degree of inflammation and the evolution of this form of chronic gastritis can vary largely depending on bacterial virulence factors, host susceptibility factors and environmental conditions. Autoimmune gastritis is another cause of chronic inflammation in the stomach, which can occur in all age groups. This disease presents typically with vitamin B12 deficiency and pernicious anaemia. The presence of anti-parietal cell antibodies is highly specific for the diagnosis. The role of H. pylori as a trigger for autoimmune gastritis remains uncertain. Other rare conditions for chronic gastritis are chronic inflammatory conditions such as Crohn's disease or on the background of lymphocytic or collagenous gastroenteropathies. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Plasma cell gingivitis - A rare case related to Colocasia (arbi) leaves.

PubMed

Bali, Deepika; Gill, Sanjeet; Bali, Amit

2012-09-01

Plasma cell gingivitis is an uncommon inflammatory condition of uncertain etiology often flavoured chewing gum, spices, foods, candies, or dentifrices. The diagnosis of plasma cell gingivitis is based on comprehensive history taking, clinical examination, and appropriate diagnostic tests. Here we are presenting a rare case of plasma cell gingivitis caused by consumption of colocasia (arbi) leaves. Colocasia is a kind of vegetable, very commonly consumed in the regions of North India.

Broadening Army Leaders for the Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-01

5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION ...past, violent extremist organizations (VEO) are actively seeking the ability to use disease as a weapon to attack the West. The fourth condition of...slides as a primary form of communication sets it apart from most other organizations . Saluting followed by a unit greeting when one soldier meets a

75 FR 60371 - Requirements of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions; Correction

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-30

... Requirements of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions; Correction AGENCY: Internal Revenue Service... the IRS to require corporations to file a schedule disclosing uncertain tax positions related to the tax return as required by the IRS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Kathryn Zuba, (202) 622-3400 (not...

Alcohol's effects on emotionally motivated attention, defensive reactivity and subjective anxiety during uncertain threats.

PubMed

Bradford, Daniel E; Motschman, Courtney A; Starr, Mark J; Curtin, John J

2017-11-01

Developing a better understanding of how and under what circumstances alcohol affects the emotions, cognitions and neural functions that precede and contribute to dangerous behaviors during intoxication may help to reduce their occurrence. Alcohol intoxication has recently been shown to reduce defensive reactivity and anxiety more during uncertain vs certain threat. However, alcohol's effects on emotionally motivated attention to these threats are unknown. Alcohol may disrupt both affective response to and attentional processing of uncertain threats making intoxicated individuals less able to avoid dangerous and costly behaviors. To test this possibility, we examined the effects of a broad range of blood alcohol concentrations on 96 participants' sub-cortically mediated defensive reactivity (startle potentiation), retrospective subjective anxiety (self-report) and cortically assessed emotionally motivated attention (probe P3 event related potential) while they experienced visually cued uncertain and certain location electric shock threat. As predicted, alcohol decreased defensive reactivity and subjective anxiety more during uncertain vs certain threat. In a novel finding, alcohol dampened emotionally motivated attention during uncertain but not certain threat. This effect appeared independent of alcohol's effects on defensive reactivity and subjective anxiety. These results suggest that alcohol intoxication dampens processing of uncertain threats while leaving processing of certain threats intact. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

Altitude-related cough

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Altitude-related cough is a troublesome condition of uncertain aetiology that affects many visitors to high altitude. The traditionally held belief that it was due solely to the inspiration of cold, dry air was refuted by observations and experiments in long duration hypobaric chamber studies. It is likely that altitude-related cough is a symptom of a number of possible perturbations in the cough reflex arc that may exist independently or together. These include loss of water from the respiratory tract; respiratory tract infections and sub-clinical high altitude pulmonary oedema. The published work on altitude-related cough is reviewed and possible aetiologies for the condition are discussed. PMID:24175933

Symptomatic Overlap and Therapeutic Opportunities in Primary Headache.

PubMed

Cady, Roger; Garas, Sandy Yacoub; Patel, Ketu; Peterson, Andrew; Wenzel, Richard

2015-08-01

Headache, a nearly universal experience, remains costly, disabling, and often suboptimally managed. The most common presentations in the United States are migraine, tension-type headache (TTH) and "sinus" headache, but their extensive symptomatic overlap suggests that these conditions can be approached as variations in the same underlying pathology and managed accordingly. We use case studies of patients with varying prior diagnoses (none, migraine, TTH, and sinus headache), as well as a 4-question diagnostic screening tool, to illustrate how pharmacists can use this conceptual framework to simplify identification, management, and referral of patients with primary headache conditions of uncertain etiology. © The Author(s) 2014.

Appropriate Use Criteria in Dermatopathology: Initial Recommendations from the American Society of Dermatopathology.

PubMed

Vidal, Claudia I; Armbrect, Eric A; Andea, Aleodor A; Bohlke, Angela K; Comfere, Nneka I; Hughes, Sarah R; Kim, Jinah; Kozel, Jessica A; Lee, Jason B; Linos, Konstantinos; Litzner, Brandon R; Missall, Tricia A; Novoa, Roberto A; Sundram, Uma; Swick, Brian L; Hurley, M Yadira; Alam, Murad; Argenyi, Zsolt; Duncan, Lyn M; Elston, Dirk M; Emanuel, Patrick O; Ferringer, Tammie; Fung, Maxwell A; Hosler, Gregory A; Lazar, Alexander J; Lowe, Lori; Plaza, Jose A; Prieto, Victor G; Robinson, June K; Schaffer, Andras; Subtil, Antonio; Wang, Wei-Lien

2018-04-21

Appropriate use criteria (AUC) provide physicians guidance in test selection, can affect health care delivery, reimbursement policy, and physician decision-making. The American Society of Dermatopathology (ASDP), with input from the American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) and the College of American Pathologists (CAP), sought to develop AUC in dermatopathology. The RAND/UCLA appropriateness methodology, which combines evidence-based medicine, clinical experience and expert judgment, was used to develop AUC in dermatopathology. With the number of ratings predetermined at 3, AUC were developed for 211 clinical scenarios (CS) involving 12 ancillary studies (AS). Consensus was reached for 188 (89%) CS, with 93 (44%) considered "usually appropriate", 52 (25%) "rarely appropriate", and 43 (20%) "uncertain appropriateness". The methodology requires a focus on appropriateness without comparison between tests and irrespective of cost. The ultimate decision of when to order specific test rests with the physician and is one where the expected benefit exceeds the negative consequences. This publication outlines the recommendation of appropriateness - AUC for 12 tests used in dermatopathology. Importantly, these recommendations may change considering new evidence. Results deemed "uncertain appropriateness" and where consensus was not reached may benefit from further research. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Surrogate-based optimization of hydraulic fracturing in pre-existing fracture networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Sun, Yunwei; Fu, Pengcheng; Carrigan, Charles R.; Lu, Zhiming; Tong, Charles H.; Buscheck, Thomas A.

2013-08-01

Hydraulic fracturing has been used widely to stimulate production of oil, natural gas, and geothermal energy in formations with low natural permeability. Numerical optimization of fracture stimulation often requires a large number of evaluations of objective functions and constraints from forward hydraulic fracturing models, which are computationally expensive and even prohibitive in some situations. Moreover, there are a variety of uncertainties associated with the pre-existing fracture distributions and rock mechanical properties, which affect the optimized decisions for hydraulic fracturing. In this study, a surrogate-based approach is developed for efficient optimization of hydraulic fracturing well design in the presence of natural-system uncertainties. The fractal dimension is derived from the simulated fracturing network as the objective for maximizing energy recovery sweep efficiency. The surrogate model, which is constructed using training data from high-fidelity fracturing models for mapping the relationship between uncertain input parameters and the fractal dimension, provides fast approximation of the objective functions and constraints. A suite of surrogate models constructed using different fitting methods is evaluated and validated for fast predictions. Global sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the impact of the input variables on the output of interest, and further used for parameter screening. The high efficiency of the surrogate-based approach is demonstrated for three optimization scenarios with different and uncertain ambient conditions. Our results suggest the critical importance of considering uncertain pre-existing fracture networks in optimization studies of hydraulic fracturing.

Particle filter based hybrid prognostics for health monitoring of uncertain systems in bond graph framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Mayank Shekhar; Dauphin-Tanguy, G.; Ould-Bouamama, B.

2016-06-01

The paper's main objective is to address the problem of health monitoring of system parameters in Bond Graph (BG) modeling framework, by exploiting its structural and causal properties. The system in feedback control loop is considered uncertain globally. Parametric uncertainty is modeled in interval form. The system parameter is undergoing degradation (prognostic candidate) and its degradation model is assumed to be known a priori. The detection of degradation commencement is done in a passive manner which involves interval valued robust adaptive thresholds over the nominal part of the uncertain BG-derived interval valued analytical redundancy relations (I-ARRs). The latter forms an efficient diagnostic module. The prognostics problem is cast as joint state-parameter estimation problem, a hybrid prognostic approach, wherein the fault model is constructed by considering the statistical degradation model of the system parameter (prognostic candidate). The observation equation is constructed from nominal part of the I-ARR. Using particle filter (PF) algorithms; the estimation of state of health (state of prognostic candidate) and associated hidden time-varying degradation progression parameters is achieved in probabilistic terms. A simplified variance adaptation scheme is proposed. Associated uncertainties which arise out of noisy measurements, parametric degradation process, environmental conditions etc. are effectively managed by PF. This allows the production of effective predictions of the remaining useful life of the prognostic candidate with suitable confidence bounds. The effectiveness of the novel methodology is demonstrated through simulations and experiments on a mechatronic system.

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

Millennial Teachers and Multiculturalism: Considerations for Teaching in Uncertain Times

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hallman, Heidi L.

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to explore the intersection of generational traits of millennial teachers, multiculturalism and teaching in an era of Uncertain Times. Uncertain Times, as a framework for the paper, characterizes changing aspects of the current era in which we live, such as the rise of the internet and interconnectivity, globalization and…

Space shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The first twelve system state variables are presented with the necessary mathematical developments for incorporating them into the filter/smoother algorithm. Other state variables, i.e., aerodynamic coefficients can be easily incorporated into the estimation algorithm, representing uncertain parameters, but for initial checkout purposes are treated as known quantities. An approach for incorporating the NASA propulsion predictive model results into the optimal estimation algorithm was identified. This approach utilizes numerical derivatives and nominal predictions within the algorithm with global iterations of the algorithm. The iterative process is terminated when the quality of the estimates provided no longer significantly improves.

Six sigma for revenue retrieval.

PubMed

Plonien, Cynthia

2013-01-01

Deficiencies in revenue retrieval due to failures in obtaining charges have contributed to a negative bottom line for numerous hospitals. Improving documentation practices through a Six Sigma process improvement initiative can minimize opportunities for errors through reviews and instill structure for compliance and consistency. Commitment to the Six Sigma principles with continuous monitoring of outcomes and constant communication of results to departments, management, and payers is a strong approach to reducing the financial impact of denials on an organization's revenues and expenses. Using Six Sigma tools can help improve the organization's financial performance not only for today, but also for health care's uncertain future.

Simple bone cyst of mandible mimicking periapical cyst.

PubMed

Hs, Charan Babu; Rai, Bhagawan Das; Nair, Manju A; Astekar, Madhusudan S

2012-05-29

Simple bone cysts (SBC) are pseudocysts occurring less commonly in the maxillofacial region. The uncertain and unclear etiopathogenesis led to numerous synonyms to refer this particular cyst. These cysts are devoid of an epithelial lining and are usually empty or contain blood or straw-colored fluid. In jaws initially it mimics a periapical cyst and later can lead to cortical bone expansion warranting for radical approach, which is seldom required. SBC is predominantly diagnosed in first two decades of life. Here we report a case of solitary bone cyst mimicking a periapical cyst of a mandibular molar in a 37-year-old patient.

Black Carbon Concentration from Worldwide Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuster, Gregory L.; Dubovik, Oleg; Holben, Brent N.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.

2006-01-01

The carbon emissions inventories used to initialize transport models and general circulation models are highly parameterized, and created on the basis of multiple sparse datasets (such as fuel use inventories and emission factors). The resulting inventories are uncertain by at least a factor of 2, and this uncertainty is carried forward to the model output. [Bond et al., 1998, Bond et al., 2004, Cooke et al., 1999, Streets et al., 2001] Worldwide black carbon concentration measurements are needed to assess the efficacy of the carbon emissions inventory and transport model output on a continuous basis.

A high-latitude coral community with an uncertain future: Stetson Bank, northwestern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBose, J. L.; Nuttall, M. F.; Hickerson, E. L.; Schmahl, G. P.

2013-03-01

Limited data exist that detail trends in benthic community composition of high-latitude coral communities. As anthropogenic stressors are projected to increase in number and intensity, long-term monitoring datasets are essential to understanding community stability and ecosystem resilience. In 1993, a long-term monitoring program was initiated at Stetson Bank, in the Gulf of Mexico. Over the course of this monitoring, a major shift in community structure occurred, in which the coral-sponge community was replaced by an algal-dominated community. During the initial years of this study, the coral community at Stetson Bank was relatively stable. Beginning in the late 1990s, sponge cover began a steady decline from over 30 % to less than 25 %. Then, in 2005, the benthic community underwent a further significant change when living coral cover declined from 30 % to less than 8 % and sponges declined to less than 20 % benthic cover. This abrupt shift corresponded with a Caribbean-wide bleaching event in 2005 that caused major mortality of Stetson Bank corals. Previous bleaching events at Stetson Bank did not result in wide-scale coral mortality. Several environmental parameters may have contributed to the rapid decline in this benthic community. We suggest that the combined effects of coastal runoff and elevated temperatures contributed to the observed shift. We present an analysis of 15 years of monitoring data spanning from 1993 to 2008; this dataset provides both a biological baseline and a multiyear trend analysis of the community structure for a high-latitude coral-sponge community in the face of changing climatic conditions.

[Cancer screening in clinical practice: the value of shared decision-making].

PubMed

Cornuz, Jacques; Junod, Noëlle; Pasche, Olivier; Guessous, Idris

2010-07-14

Shared decision-making approach to uncertain clinical situations such as cancer screening seems more appropriate than ever. Shared decision making can be defined as an interactive process where physician and patient share all the stages of the decision making process. For patients who wish to be implicated in the management of their health conditions, physicians might express difficulty to do so. Use of patient decision aids appears to improve such process of shared decision making.

Plasma cell gingivitis - A rare case related to Colocasia (arbi) leaves

PubMed Central

Bali, Deepika; Gill, Sanjeet; Bali, Amit

2012-01-01

Plasma cell gingivitis is an uncommon inflammatory condition of uncertain etiology often flavoured chewing gum, spices, foods, candies, or dentifrices. The diagnosis of plasma cell gingivitis is based on comprehensive history taking, clinical examination, and appropriate diagnostic tests. Here we are presenting a rare case of plasma cell gingivitis caused by consumption of colocasia (arbi) leaves. Colocasia is a kind of vegetable, very commonly consumed in the regions of North India. PMID:23230358

Neuroblastoma in a patient with Sotos' syndrome.

PubMed Central

Nance, M A; Neglia, J P; Talwar, D; Berry, S A

1990-01-01

Sotos' syndrome, or cerebral gigantism, is a disorder of growth regulation. Tumours have occasionally been reported in children with Sotos' syndrome, but it is uncertain whether this is a coincidence, or whether it is aetiologically related to the underlying disorder of growth. We report a 15 month old child with a paraspinal neuroblastoma and Sotos' syndrome and suggest that children with this condition may be at higher risk for developing tumours than the general population. Images PMID:2319581

Robust design of mass-uncertain rolling-pendulum TMDs for the seismic protection of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matta, Emiliano; De Stefano, Alessandro

2009-01-01

Commonly used for mitigating wind- and traffic-induced vibrations in flexible structures, passive tuned mass dampers (TMDs) are rarely applied to the seismic control of buildings, their effectiveness to impulsive loads being conditional upon adoption of large mass ratios. Instead of recurring to cumbersome metal or concrete devices, this paper suggests meeting that condition by turning into TMDs non-structural masses sometimes available atop buildings. An innovative roof-garden TMD, for instance, sounds a promising tool capable of combining environmental and structural protection in one device. Unfortunately, the amount of these masses being generally variable, the resulting mass-uncertain TMD (MUTMD) appears prone to mistuning and control loss. In an attempt to minimize such adverse effects, robust analysis and synthesis against mass variations are applied in this study to MUTMDs of the rolling-pendulum type, a configuration characterized by mass-independent natural period. Through simulations under harmonic and recorded ground motions of increasing intensity, the performance of circular and cycloidal rolling-pendulum MUTMDs is evaluated on an SDOF structure in order to illustrate their respective advantages as well as the drawbacks inherent in their non-linear behavior. A possible implementation of a roof-garden TMD on a real building structure is described and its control efficacy numerically demonstrated, showing that in practical applications MUTMDs can become a good alternative to traditional TMDs.

Ascertainment-adjusted parameter estimation approach to improve robustness against misspecification of health monitoring methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juesas, P.; Ramasso, E.

2016-12-01

Condition monitoring aims at ensuring system safety which is a fundamental requirement for industrial applications and that has become an inescapable social demand. This objective is attained by instrumenting the system and developing data analytics methods such as statistical models able to turn data into relevant knowledge. One difficulty is to be able to correctly estimate the parameters of those methods based on time-series data. This paper suggests the use of the Weighted Distribution Theory together with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm to improve parameter estimation in statistical models with latent variables with an application to health monotonic under uncertainty. The improvement of estimates is made possible by incorporating uncertain and possibly noisy prior knowledge on latent variables in a sound manner. The latent variables are exploited to build a degradation model of dynamical system represented as a sequence of discrete states. Examples on Gaussian Mixture Models, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) with discrete and continuous outputs are presented on both simulated data and benchmarks using the turbofan engine datasets. A focus on the application of a discrete HMM to health monitoring under uncertainty allows to emphasize the interest of the proposed approach in presence of different operating conditions and fault modes. It is shown that the proposed model depicts high robustness in presence of noisy and uncertain prior.

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

Possible world based consistency learning model for clustering and classifying uncertain data.

PubMed

Liu, Han; Zhang, Xianchao; Zhang, Xiaotong

2018-06-01

Possible world has shown to be effective for handling various types of data uncertainty in uncertain data management. However, few uncertain data clustering and classification algorithms are proposed based on possible world. Moreover, existing possible world based algorithms suffer from the following issues: (1) they deal with each possible world independently and ignore the consistency principle across different possible worlds; (2) they require the extra post-processing procedure to obtain the final result, which causes that the effectiveness highly relies on the post-processing method and the efficiency is also not very good. In this paper, we propose a novel possible world based consistency learning model for uncertain data, which can be extended both for clustering and classifying uncertain data. This model utilizes the consistency principle to learn a consensus affinity matrix for uncertain data, which can make full use of the information across different possible worlds and then improve the clustering and classification performance. Meanwhile, this model imposes a new rank constraint on the Laplacian matrix of the consensus affinity matrix, thereby ensuring that the number of connected components in the consensus affinity matrix is exactly equal to the number of classes. This also means that the clustering and classification results can be directly obtained without any post-processing procedure. Furthermore, for the clustering and classification tasks, we respectively derive the efficient optimization methods to solve the proposed model. Experimental results on real benchmark datasets and real world uncertain datasets show that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art uncertain data clustering and classification algorithms in effectiveness and performs competitively in efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of amount and tangibility of endowment and certainty of recipients on selfishness in a modified dictator game.

PubMed

Chang, Shao-Chuan; Lin, Li-Yun; Horng, Ruey-Yun; Wang, Yau-De

2014-06-01

Taiwanese college students (N = 101) participated in the study to examine the effects of the amount of an endowment, the tangibility of an endowment, and the certainty of the recipient on selfishness in a modified dictator game. Results showed that dictators were more selfish when allocating tangible (money) than less tangible (honor credits) endowments. Selfishness was higher when large amounts of money were involved. The certainty of the recipient was manipulated by whether the recipient was chosen and announced before or after the decision. Unexpectedly, participants were more self-interested in the certain-recipient condition than in the uncertain-recipient condition. In the honor condition, the amount of an endowment and the certainty of the recipient did not affect participants' allocations.

Optimal Decision Making in a Class of Uncertain Systems Based on Uncertain Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bubnicki, Z.

2006-06-01

The paper is concerned with a class of uncertain systems described by relational knowledge representations with unknown parameters which are assumed to be values of uncertain variables characterized by a user in the form of certainty distributions. The first part presents the basic optimization problem consisting in finding the decision maximizing the certainty index that the requirement given by a user is satisfied. The main part is devoted to the description of the optimization problem with the given certainty threshold. It is shown how the approach presented in the paper may be applied to some problems for anticipatory systems.

Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

PubMed

Solow, Andrew; Smith, Woollcott; Burgman, Mark; Rout, Tracy; Wintle, Brendan; Roberts, David

2012-02-01

The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often, however, there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date, uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03, which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944, 1952, and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple Models (POEMs): co-ordinated experiments in the ISA-MIP model intercomparison activity component of the SPARC Stratospheric Sulphur and it's Role in Climate initiative (SSiRC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Lindsay; Mann, Graham; Carslaw, Ken; Toohey, Matthew; Aquila, Valentina

2016-04-01

The World Climate Research Program's SPARC initiative has a new international activity "Stratospheric Sulphur and its Role in Climate" (SSiRC) to better understand changes in stratospheric aerosol and precursor gaseous sulphur species. One component of SSiRC involves an intercomparison "ISA-MIP" of composition-climate models that simulate the stratospheric aerosol layer interactively. Within PoEMS each modelling group will run a "perturbed physics ensemble" (PPE) of interactive stratospheric aerosol (ISA) simulations of the Pinatubo eruption, varying several uncertain parameters associated with the eruption's SO2 emissions and model processes. A powerful new technique to quantify and attribute sources of uncertainty in complex global models is described by Lee et al. (2011, ACP). The analysis uses Gaussian emulation to derive a probability density function (pdf) of predicted quantities, essentially interpolating the PPE results in multi-dimensional parameter space. Once trained on the ensemble, a Monte Carlo simulation with the fast Gaussian emulator enabling a full variance-based sensitivity analysis. The approach has already been used effectively by Carslaw et al., (2013, Nature) to quantify the uncertainty in the cloud albedo effect forcing from a 3D global aerosol-microphysics model allowing to compare the sensitivy of different predicted quantities to uncertainties in natural and anthropogenic emissions types, and structural parameters in the models. Within ISA-MIP, each group will carry out a PPE of runs, with the subsequent analysis with the emulator assessing the uncertainty in the volcanic forcings predicted by each model. In this poster presentation we will give an outline of the "PoEMS" analysis, describing the uncertain parameters to be varied and the relevance to further understanding differences identified in previous international stratospheric aerosol assessments.

The clinical significance of occult gynecologic primary tumours in metastatic cancer.

PubMed

Hannouf, M B; Winquist, E; Mahmud, S M; Brackstone, M; Sarma, S; Rodrigues, G; Rogan, P K; Hoch, J S; Zaric, G S

2017-10-01

We estimated the frequency of occult gynecologic primary tumours (gpts) in patients with metastatic cancer from an uncertain primary and evaluated the effect on disease management and overall survival (os). We used Manitoba administrative health databases to identify all patients initially diagnosed with metastatic cancer during 2002-2011. We defined patients as having an "occult" primary tumour if the primary was classified at least 6 months after the initial diagnosis. Otherwise, we considered patients to have "obvious" primaries. We then compared clinicopathologic and treatment characteristics and 2-year os for women with occult and with obvious gpts. We used Cox regression adjustment and propensity score methods to assess the effect on os of having an occult gpt. Among the 5953 patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer, occult primary tumours were more common in women ( n = 285 of 2552, 11.2%) than in men ( n = 244 of 3401, 7.2%). In women, gpts were the most frequent occult primary tumours ( n = 55 of 285, 19.3%). Compared with their counterparts having obvious gpts, women with occult gpts ( n = 55) presented with similar histologic and metastatic patterns but received fewer gynecologic diagnostic examinations during diagnostic work-up. Women with occult gpts were less likely to undergo surgery, waited longer for radiotherapy, and received a lesser variety of chemotherapeutic agents. Having an occult compared with an obvious gpt was associated with decreased os (hazard ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence interval: 1.2 to 2.35). Similar results were observed in adjusted analyses. In women with metastatic cancer from an uncertain primary, gpts constitute the largest clinical entity. Accurate diagnosis of occult gpts early in the course of metastatic cancer might lead to more effective treatment decisions and improved survival outcomes.

The clinical significance of occult gynecologic primary tumours in metastatic cancer

PubMed Central

Hannouf, M.B.; Winquist, E.; Mahmud, S.M.; Brackstone, M.; Sarma, S.; Rodrigues, G.; Rogan, P.K.; Hoch, J.S.; Zaric, G.S.

2017-01-01

Objective We estimated the frequency of occult gynecologic primary tumours (gpts) in patients with metastatic cancer from an uncertain primary and evaluated the effect on disease management and overall survival (os). Methods We used Manitoba administrative health databases to identify all patients initially diagnosed with metastatic cancer during 2002–2011. We defined patients as having an “occult” primary tumour if the primary was classified at least 6 months after the initial diagnosis. Otherwise, we considered patients to have “obvious” primaries. We then compared clinicopathologic and treatment characteristics and 2-year os for women with occult and with obvious gpts. We used Cox regression adjustment and propensity score methods to assess the effect on os of having an occult gpt. Results Among the 5953 patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer, occult primary tumours were more common in women (n = 285 of 2552, 11.2%) than in men (n = 244 of 3401, 7.2%). In women, gpts were the most frequent occult primary tumours (n = 55 of 285, 19.3%). Compared with their counterparts having obvious gpts, women with occult gpts (n = 55) presented with similar histologic and metastatic patterns but received fewer gynecologic diagnostic examinations during diagnostic work-up. Women with occult gpts were less likely to undergo surgery, waited longer for radiotherapy, and received a lesser variety of chemotherapeutic agents. Having an occult compared with an obvious gpt was associated with decreased os (hazard ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence interval: 1.2 to 2.35). Similar results were observed in adjusted analyses. Conclusions In women with metastatic cancer from an uncertain primary, gpts constitute the largest clinical entity. Accurate diagnosis of occult gpts early in the course of metastatic cancer might lead to more effective treatment decisions and improved survival outcomes. PMID:29089807

Eco-innovations in the functioning of companies.

PubMed

Ociepa-Kubicka, A; Pachura, P

2017-07-01

The development of entrepreneurships in the 21st century cannot occur without taking care of the natural environment. The article presents issues related to eco-innovation. Despite the opportunities offered by eco-innovations, implementation of such initiatives remains to lead to various difficulties. They vary across countries and sectors. The insufficient number of enterprises in Poland and other European countries implement adequate level of eco-innovations. The main aim of this paper is to indicate the causes of this status and activities aimed to develop eco-innovativeness. The benefits and risks connected with implementation of innovative products and technologies were also discussed. Furthermore, the advantages of and barriers to their implementation into companies were analysed. The entrepreneurs from the least eco-innovative countries emphasize serious barriers, including uncertain demand from the market, uncertain return on investment or too long a payback period for eco-innovation, lack of funds within the enterprise, insufficient access to existing subsidies and fiscal incentive. They are especially afraid of the financial risks, which raises uncertainty and leads to refraining from innovative initiatives. The possibilities were indicated for the entrepreneurs who face problems with the implementation of innovative solutions. Particular attention was paid to the European Union activities for the development of eco-innovations. Numerous programs supporting their implementation were indicated. The article also presents examples of eco-innovation in water and sewage enterprises. It was emphasized that planning of eco-innovative solutions should be based on comprehensive information about actual benefits and possibility of threats to the environment which can be caused by implementation of eco-innovations. The study presents the example of threats resulting from different methods of sewage sludge management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cooperative path planning for multi-USV based on improved artificial bee colony algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Lu; Chen, Qiwei

2018-03-01

Due to the complex constraints, more uncertain factors and critical real-time demand of path planning for multiple unmanned surface vehicle (multi-USV), an improved artificial bee colony (I-ABC) algorithm were proposed to solve the model of cooperative path planning for multi-USV. First the Voronoi diagram of battle field space is conceived to generate the optimal area of USVs paths. Then the chaotic searching algorithm is used to initialize the collection of paths, which is regard as foods of the ABC algorithm. With the limited data, the initial collection can search the optimal area of paths perfectly. Finally simulations of the multi-USV path planning under various threats have been carried out. Simulation results verify that the I-ABC algorithm can improve the diversity of nectar source and the convergence rate of algorithm. It can increase the adaptability of dynamic battlefield and unexpected threats for USV.

Infection rate of Leptospira interrogans in the field rodent, Apodemus agrarius, in Korea.

PubMed Central

Cho, M. K.; Kee, S. H.; Song, H. J.; Kim, K. H.; Song, K. J.; Baek, L. J.; Kim, H. H.; Oh, H. B.; Kim, Y. W.; Chang, W. H.

1998-01-01

Leptospirosis has significantly decreased in Korea since 1988, following the leptospiral vaccination programme initiated in 1988. Whether this wholly explains the decreased incidence is uncertain. As an initial step to answer this question, infection rates of Leptospira interrogans in field rodents, Apodemis agrarius, were examined and compared with previous data. Two hundred and twenty-two A. agrarius were captured during October-December 1996. Spirochaetes were isolated from 22 (9.9%) and leptospiral DNA was detected in an additional 6 rodents (12.6%). Subsequent microscopic agglutination tests (MAT) classified all these isolates as L. interrogans serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae serovar lai. The above data did not significantly differ from previous surveys in 1984-7. There was no significant change of L. interrogans infection in field rodents following the introduction of the vaccination programme in Korea. Further studies are needed to determine the role of human vaccination in reducing incidence. PMID:10030719

Marital crises in oncology patients. An approach to initial intervention by primary clinicians.

PubMed

Peteet, J; Greenberg, B

1995-05-01

Life-threatening illnesses such as cancer may precipitate marital crises in vulnerable relationships, and oncology clinicians often feel uncertain about how to approach them. This paper presents a framework for initial intervention based on the nature of the principal threat to the relationship. Immature relationships need distance and support for their identity as a couple; hostile dependent couples need to find consensus in order to structure communication; physically abusive relationships require monitoring in order to promote safety; and estranged couples need help in understanding their disappointment and identifying available support. Clinicians working in oncology can help couples in crisis by promoting a realistic balance of independence and dependence, clarifying the complexity of factors contributing to the crisis, considering referral for couples treatment, communicating with the team while respecting patients' confidences, and by choosing clear and compatible clinical roles. Primary clinicians can stabilize and treat marital crises, but need access to medically knowledgeable couples' therapists.

Properties of jet engine combustion particles during the PartEmis experiment: Particle size spectra (d > 15 nm) and volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyeki, S.; Gysel, M.; Weingartner, E.; Baltensperger, U.; Hitzenberger, R.; Petzold, A.; Wilson, C. W.

2004-09-01

Size distributions (d > 15 nm) and volatile properties of combustion particles were measured during test-rig experiments on a jet engine, consisting of a combustor and three simulated turbine stages (HES). The combustor was operated to simulate legacy (inlet temperature 300°C) and contemporary (500°C) cruise conditions, using kerosene with three different fuel sulfur contents (FSC; 50, 400 and 1300 μg g-1). Measurements found that contemporary cruise conditions resulted in lower number emission indices (EIN15) and higher geometric mean particle diameter (dG) than for legacy conditions. Increasing FSC resulted in an overall increase in EIN15 and decrease in dG. The HES stages or fuel additive (APA101) had little influence on EIN15 or dG, however, this is uncertain due to the measurement variability. EIN15 for non-volatile particles was largely independent of all examined conditions.

Importance of associative learning processes for one-trial behavioral sensitization of preweanling rats.

PubMed

McDougall, Sanders A; Pothier, Alexandria G; Der-Ghazarian, Taleen; Herbert, Matthew S; Kozanian, Olga O; Castellanos, Kevin A; Flores, Ana T

2011-10-01

During adulthood, associative learning is necessary for the expression of one-trial behavioral sensitization; however, it is uncertain whether the same associative processes are operative during the preweanling period. Two strategies were used to assess the importance of associative learning for one-trial behavioral sensitization of preweanling rats. In the initial experiments, we varied both the sequence and time interval between presentation of the conditioned stimulus (CS, novel environment) and unconditioned stimulus (US, cocaine). In the final experiment, we determined whether electroconvulsive shock-induced retrograde amnesia would disrupt one-trial behavioral sensitization. Results showed that robust-sensitized responding was apparent regardless of the sequence in which cocaine and the novel environment (the presumptive CS) were presented. Varying the time between CS and US presentation (0, 3, or 6 h) was also without effect. Results from experiment 3 showed that single or multiple electroconvulsive shock treatments did not alter the expression of the sensitized response. Therefore, these data indicated that one-trial behavioral sensitization of preweanling rats was exclusively mediated by nonassociative mechanisms and that associative processes did not modulate sensitized responding. These findings are in contrast to what is observed during adulthood, as adult rats exhibit one-trial behavioral sensitization only when associative processes are operative.

Early experience of intra-ureteric capsaicin infusion in loin pain haematuria syndrome.

PubMed

Armstrong, T; McLean, A D; Hayes, M; Morgans, B T; Tulloch, D N

2000-02-01

To evaluate early results of the intra-ureteric instillation of capsaicin for the treatment of loin pain haematuria syndrome (LPHS). Ten patients with LPHS were treated using intra-ureteric capsaicin instillation. A solution of capsaicin was infused into the affected ureter through an embolectomy catheter, under anaesthesia. The success of the treatment was assessed using patient questionnaires and the quantitative reduction in the patients' analgesic requirements measured. During a mean follow-up of 6 months, six of the 10 patients had short- to medium-term symptomatic relief after one or more treatments; four had no relief from their symptoms. One patient had a mucosal ulceration in the bladder after extravasation of the capsaicin solution. Two patients subsequently underwent simple nephrectomy for symptomatic nonfunctioning kidneys. These results are consistent with other preliminary reports of the efficacy of capsaicin treatment in LPHS and such treatment therefore has a definite therapeutic role in this difficult condition. We are uncertain if the treatment contributed to the deterioration of the excised kidneys. This early experience suggests a need for careful consideration when contemplating this treatment, with attention directed to both the initial diagnosis and possibly the technique of capsaicin/instillation. We include a protocol to follow when preparing patients for capsaicin treatment.

Competition for water vapour results in suppression of ice formation in mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Emma L.; Connolly, Paul J.; McFiggans, Gordon

2018-05-01

The formation of ice in clouds can initiate precipitation and influence a cloud's reflectivity and lifetime, affecting climate to a highly uncertain degree. Nucleation of ice at elevated temperatures requires an ice nucleating particle (INP), which results in so-called heterogeneous freezing. Previously reported measurements for the ability of a particle to nucleate ice have been made in the absence of other aerosol which will act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and are ubiquitous in the atmosphere. Here we show that CCN can outcompete INPs for available water vapour thus suppressing ice formation, which has the potential to significantly affect the Earth's radiation budget. The magnitude of this suppression is shown to be dependent on the mass of condensed water required for freezing. Here we show that ice formation in a state-of-the-art cloud parcel model is strongly dependent on the criteria for heterogeneous freezing selected from those previously hypothesised. We have developed an alternative criteria which agrees well with observations from cloud chamber experiments. This study demonstrates the dominant role that competition for water vapour can play in ice formation, highlighting both a need for clarity in the requirements for heterogeneous freezing and for measurements under atmospherically appropriate conditions.

Developing and applying metamodels of high resolution ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As defined by Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metamodeling), “(a) metamodel or surrogate model is a model of a model, and metamodeling is the process of generating such metamodels.” The goals of metamodeling include, but are not limited to (1) developing functional or statistical relationships between a model’s input and output variables for model analysis, interpretation, or information consumption by users’ clients; (2) quantifying a model’s sensitivity to alternative or uncertain forcing functions, initial conditions, or parameters; and (3) characterizing the model’s response or state space. Using five existing models developed by US Environmental Protection Agency, we generate a metamodeling database of the expected environmental and biological concentrations of 644 organic chemicals released into nine US rivers from wastewater treatment works (WTWs) assuming multiple loading rates and sizes of populations serviced. The chemicals of interest have log n-octanol/water partition coefficients ( ) ranging from 3 to 14, and the rivers of concern have mean annual discharges ranging from 1.09 to 3240 m3/s. Log linear regression models are derived to predict mean annual dissolved and total water concentrations and total sediment concentrations of chemicals of concern based on their , Henry’s Law Constant, and WTW loading rate and on the mean annual discharges of the receiving rivers. Metamodels are also derived to predict mean annual chemical

Persistent positive North Atlantic oscillation mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

PubMed

Trouet, Valérie; Esper, Jan; Graham, Nicholas E; Baker, Andy; Scourse, James D; Frank, David C

2009-04-03

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was the most recent pre-industrial era warm interval of European climate, yet its driving mechanisms remain uncertain. We present here a 947-year-long multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstruction and find a persistent positive NAO during the MCA. Supplementary reconstructions based on climate model results and proxy data indicate a clear shift to weaker NAO conditions into the Little Ice Age (LIA). Globally distributed proxy data suggest that this NAO shift is one aspect of a global MCA-LIA climate transition that probably was coupled to prevailing La Niña-like conditions amplified by an intensified Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA.

Investigation and incorporation of water inflow uncertainties through stochastic modelling in a combined optimisation methodology for water allocation in Alfeios River (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekri, Eleni; Yannopoulos, Panayotis; Disse, Markus

2014-05-01

The Alfeios River plays a vital role for Western Peloponnisos in Greece from natural, ecological, social and economic aspect. The main river and its six tributaries, forming the longest watercourse and the highest streamflow rate of Peloponnisose, represent a significant source of water supply for the region, aiming at delivering and satisfying the expected demands from a variety of water users, including irrigation, drinking water supply, hydropower production and recreation. In the previous EGU General Assembly, a fuzzy-boundary-interval linear programming methodology, based on Li et al. (2010) and Bekri et al. (2012), has been presented for optimal water allocation under uncertain and vague system conditions in the Alfeios River Basin. Uncertainties associated with the benefit and cost coefficient in the objective function of the main water uses (hydropower production and irrigation) were expressed as probability distributions and fuzzy boundary intervals derived by associated α-cut levels. The uncertainty of the monthly water inflows was not incorporated in the previous initial application and the analysis of all other sources of uncertainty has been applied to two extreme hydrologic years represented by a selected wet and dry year. To manage and operate the river system, decision makers should be able to analyze and evaluate the impact of various hydrologic scenarios. In the present work, the critical uncertain parameter of water inflows is analyzed and its incorporation as an additional type of uncertainty in the suggested methodology is investigated, in order to enable the assessment of optimal water allocation for hydrologic and socio-economic scenarios based both on historical data and projected climate change conditions. For this purpose, stochastic simulation analysis for a part of the Alfeios river system is undertaken, testing various stochastic models from simple stationary ones (AR and ARMA), Thomas-Fiering, ARIMA as well as more sophisticated and complete such as CASTALIA. A short description and comparison of their assumptions, the differences between them and the presentation of the results are included. Li, Y.P., Huang, G.H. and S.L., Nie, (2010), Planning water resources management systems using a fuzzy boundary interval-stochastic programming method, Elsevier Ltd, Advances in Water Resources, 33: 1105-1117. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2010.06.015 Bekri, E.S., Disse, M. and P.C.,Yannopoulos, (2012), Methodological framework for correction of quick river discharge measurements using quality characteristics, Session of Environmental Hydraulics - Hydrodynamics, 2nd Common Conference of Hellenic Hydrotechnical Association and Greek Committee for Water Resources Management, Volume: 546-557 (in Greek).

A Note on Threshold Schemes with Disenrollment

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

such a way that t or more participants can construct the secret by pooling their shares, but the secret remains undetermined to (t − 1) or fewer par...the threshold size t by 1, because (t− 1) shares plus the disclosed share can decrypt the secret . To keep the same level of secrecy in terms of...t. (2) In a (t, n) threshold scheme, the secret K is recoverable from t or more shares based on condition (1), but the secret remains uncertain even

Cross-Sectional Imaging in a Case of Adventitial Cystic Disease of the Popliteal Artery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ricci, Paolo; Panzetti, Claudio; Mastantuono, Marco

1999-01-15

Adventitial cystic disease of the popliteal artery is an unusual condition of uncertain etiology, in which a mucin-containing cyst forms in the wall of the artery and produces lower extremity claudication, typically in young and middle-aged men. A diagnosis of adventitial cystic disease of the popliteal artery was made preoperatively in a 47-year-old man by means of several imaging modalities, including angiography, magnetic resonance imaging, and ultrasound. The pathological findings confirmed the suggested diagnosis.

From point-wise stress data to a continuous description of the 3D crustal in situ stress state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidbach, O.; Ziegler, M.; Reiter, K.; Hergert, T.

2017-12-01

The in situ stress is a key parameter for the safe and sustainable management of geo-reservoirs or storage of waste and energy in deep geological repositories. It is also an essential initial condition for thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models that investigate man-made induced processes e.g. seismicity due to fluid injection/extraction, reservoir depletion or storage of heat producing high-level radioactive waste. Without a reasonable assumption on the initial stress condition it is not possible to assess if a man-made process is pushing the system into a critical state or not. However, modelling the initial 3D stress state on reservoir scale is challenging since data are hardly available before drilling in the area of interest. This is in particular the case for the stress magnitude data which are a prerequisite for a reliable model calibration. Here, we present a multi-stage 3D geomechani­cal-numerical model approach to estimate for a reservoir-scale volume the 3D in situ stress state. First, we set up a large-scale model which is calibrated by stress data and use the modelled stress field subsequently to calibrate a small-scale model located within the large-scale model. The local model contains a significantly higher resolution representation of the subsurface geometry around boreholes of a projected geothermal power plant. This approach incorporates two models and is an alternative to the required trade-off between resolution, computational cost and calibration data which is inevitable for a single model; an extension to a three-stage approach would be straight forward. We exemplify the two-stage approach for the area around Munich in the German Molasse Basin. The results of the reservoir-scale model are presented in terms of values for slip tendency as a measure for the criticality of fault reactivation. The model results show that variations due to uncertainties in the input data are mainly introduced by the uncertain material properties and missing estimates for the magnitude of the maximum horizontal stress SHmax, needed for a more reliable model calibration. This leads to the conclusion that at this stage the model's reliability depends only on the amount and quality of input data records such as available stress information rather than on the modelling technique itself.

Application of Bayesian geostatistics for evaluation of mass discharge uncertainty at contaminated sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troldborg, Mads; Nowak, Wolfgang; Lange, Ida V.; Santos, Marta C.; Binning, Philip J.; Bjerg, Poul L.

2012-09-01

Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used when assessing risks of groundwater contamination and designing remedial systems at contaminated sites. Such estimates are, however, rather uncertain as they integrate uncertain spatial distributions of both concentration and groundwater flow. Here a geostatistical simulation method for quantifying the uncertainty of the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane is presented. The method accounts for (1) heterogeneity of both the flow field and the concentration distribution through Bayesian geostatistics, (2) measurement uncertainty, and (3) uncertain source zone and transport parameters. The method generates conditional realizations of the spatial flow and concentration distribution. An analytical macrodispersive transport solution is employed to simulate the mean concentration distribution, and a geostatistical model of the Box-Cox transformed concentration data is used to simulate observed deviations from this mean solution. By combining the flow and concentration realizations, a mass discharge probability distribution is obtained. The method has the advantage of avoiding the heavy computational burden of three-dimensional numerical flow and transport simulation coupled with geostatistical inversion. It may therefore be of practical relevance to practitioners compared to existing methods that are either too simple or computationally demanding. The method is demonstrated on a field site contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. For this site, we show that including a physically meaningful concentration trend and the cosimulation of hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic gradient across the transect helps constrain the mass discharge uncertainty. The number of sampling points required for accurate mass discharge estimation and the relative influence of different data types on mass discharge uncertainty is discussed.

The Cramér-Rao Bounds and Sensor Selection for Nonlinear Systems with Uncertain Observations.

PubMed

Wang, Zhiguo; Shen, Xiaojing; Wang, Ping; Zhu, Yunmin

2018-04-05

This paper considers the problems of the posterior Cramér-Rao bound and sensor selection for multi-sensor nonlinear systems with uncertain observations. In order to effectively overcome the difficulties caused by uncertainty, we investigate two methods to derive the posterior Cramér-Rao bound. The first method is based on the recursive formula of the Cramér-Rao bound and the Gaussian mixture model. Nevertheless, it needs to compute a complex integral based on the joint probability density function of the sensor measurements and the target state. The computation burden of this method is relatively high, especially in large sensor networks. Inspired by the idea of the expectation maximization algorithm, the second method is to introduce some 0-1 latent variables to deal with the Gaussian mixture model. Since the regular condition of the posterior Cramér-Rao bound is unsatisfied for the discrete uncertain system, we use some continuous variables to approximate the discrete latent variables. Then, a new Cramér-Rao bound can be achieved by a limiting process of the Cramér-Rao bound of the continuous system. It avoids the complex integral, which can reduce the computation burden. Based on the new posterior Cramér-Rao bound, the optimal solution of the sensor selection problem can be derived analytically. Thus, it can be used to deal with the sensor selection of a large-scale sensor networks. Two typical numerical examples verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

The dorsal medial frontal cortex mediates automatic motor inhibition in uncertain contexts: evidence from combined fMRI and EEG studies.

PubMed

Albares, Marion; Lio, Guillaume; Criaud, Marion; Anton, Jean-Luc; Desmurget, Michel; Boulinguez, Philippe

2014-11-01

Response inhibition is commonly thought to rely on voluntary, reactive, selective, and relatively slow prefrontal mechanisms. In contrast, we suggest here that response inhibition is achieved automatically, nonselectively, within very short delays in uncertain environments. We modified a classical go/nogo protocol to probe context-dependent inhibitory mechanisms. Because no single neuroimaging method can definitely disentangle neural excitation and inhibition, we combined fMRI and EEG recordings in healthy humans. Any stimulus (go or nogo) presented in an uncertain context requiring action restraint was found to evoke activity changes in the supplementary motor complex (SMC) with respect to a control condition in which no response inhibition was required. These changes included: (1) An increase in event-related BOLD activity, (2) an attenuation of the early (170 ms) event related potential generated by a single, consistent source isolated by advanced blind source separation, and (3) an increase in the evoked-EEG Alpha power of this source. Considered together, these results suggest that the BOLD signal evoked by any stimulus in the SMC when the situation is unpredictable can be driven by automatic, nonselective, context-dependent inhibitory activities. This finding reveals the paradoxical mechanisms by which voluntary control of action may be achieved. The ability to provide controlled responses in unpredictable environments would require setting-up the automatic self-inhibitory circuitry within the SMC. Conversely, enabling automatic behavior when the environment becomes predictable would require top-down control to deactivate anticipatorily and temporarily the inhibitory set. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

Improved first-order uncertainty method for water-quality modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, C.S.; Anmangandla, S.

1992-01-01

Uncertainties are unavoidable in water-quality modeling and subsequent management decisions. Monte Carlo simulation and first-order uncertainty analysis (involving linearization at central values of the uncertain variables) have been frequently used to estimate probability distributions for water-quality model output due to their simplicity. Each method has its drawbacks: Monte Carlo simulation's is mainly computational time; and first-order analysis are mainly questions of accuracy and representativeness, especially for nonlinear systems and extreme conditions. An improved (advanced) first-order method is presented, where the linearization point varies to match the output level whose exceedance probability is sought. The advanced first-order method is tested on the Streeter-Phelps equation to estimate the probability distribution of critical dissolved-oxygen deficit and critical dissolved oxygen using two hypothetical examples from the literature. The advanced first-order method provides a close approximation of the exceedance probability for the Streeter-Phelps model output estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using less computer time - by two orders of magnitude - regardless of the probability distributions assumed for the uncertain model parameters.

Feature-based versus category-based induction with uncertain categories.

PubMed

Griffiths, Oren; Hayes, Brett K; Newell, Ben R

2012-05-01

Previous research has suggested that when feature inferences have to be made about an instance whose category membership is uncertain, feature-based inductive reasoning is used to the exclusion of category-based induction. These results contrast with the observation that people can and do use category-based induction when category membership is known. The present experiments examined the conditions that drive feature-based and category-based strategies in induction under category uncertainty. Specifically, 2 experiments investigated whether reliance on feature-based inductive strategies is a product of the lack of coherence in the categories used in previous research or is due to the use of a decision-only induction procedure. Experiment 1 found that feature-based reasoning remained the preferred strategy even when categories with relatively high internal coherence were used. Experiment 2 found a shift toward category-based reasoning when participants were trained to classify category members prior to feature induction. Together, these results suggest that an appropriate conceptual representation must be formed through experience with a category before it is likely to be used as a basis for feature induction. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Generalized Predictive and Neural Generalized Predictive Control of Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelkar, Atul G.

2000-01-01

The research work presented in this thesis addresses the problem of robust control of uncertain linear and nonlinear systems using Neural network-based Generalized Predictive Control (NGPC) methodology. A brief overview of predictive control and its comparison with Linear Quadratic (LQ) control is given to emphasize advantages and drawbacks of predictive control methods. It is shown that the Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) methodology overcomes the drawbacks associated with traditional LQ control as well as conventional predictive control methods. It is shown that in spite of the model-based nature of GPC it has good robustness properties being special case of receding horizon control. The conditions for choosing tuning parameters for GPC to ensure closed-loop stability are derived. A neural network-based GPC architecture is proposed for the control of linear and nonlinear uncertain systems. A methodology to account for parametric uncertainty in the system is proposed using on-line training capability of multi-layer neural network. Several simulation examples and results from real-time experiments are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Mixed H2/H∞ distributed robust model predictive control for polytopic uncertain systems subject to actuator saturation and missing measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yan; Fang, Xiaosheng; Diao, Qingda

2016-03-01

In this paper, we discuss the mixed H2/H∞ distributed robust model predictive control problem for polytopic uncertain systems subject to randomly occurring actuator saturation and packet loss. The global system is decomposed into several subsystems, and all the subsystems are connected by a fixed topology network, which is the definition for the packet loss among the subsystems. To better use the successfully transmitted information via Internet, both the phenomena of actuator saturation and packet loss resulting from the limitation of the communication bandwidth are taken into consideration. A novel distributed controller model is established to account for the actuator saturation and packet loss in a unified representation by using two sets of Bernoulli distributed white sequences with known conditional probabilities. With the nonlinear feedback control law represented by the convex hull of a group of linear feedback laws, the distributed controllers for subsystems are obtained by solving an linear matrix inequality (LMI) optimisation problem. Finally, numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.

Stability and Performance Metrics for Adaptive Flight Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje; Nguyen, Nhan; VanEykeren, Luarens

2009-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of verifying adaptive control techniques for enabling safe flight in the presence of adverse conditions. Since the adaptive systems are non-linear by design, the existing control verification metrics are not applicable to adaptive controllers. Moreover, these systems are in general highly uncertain. Hence, the system's characteristics cannot be evaluated by relying on the available dynamical models. This necessitates the development of control verification metrics based on the system's input-output information. For this point of view, a set of metrics is introduced that compares the uncertain aircraft's input-output behavior under the action of an adaptive controller to that of a closed-loop linear reference model to be followed by the aircraft. This reference model is constructed for each specific maneuver using the exact aerodynamic and mass properties of the aircraft to meet the stability and performance requirements commonly accepted in flight control. The proposed metrics are unified in the sense that they are model independent and not restricted to any specific adaptive control methods. As an example, we present simulation results for a wing damaged generic transport aircraft with several existing adaptive controllers.

A Novel Finite-Sum Inequality-Based Method for Robust H∞ Control of Uncertain Discrete-Time Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Systems With Interval-Like Time-Varying Delays.

PubMed

Zhang, Xian-Ming; Han, Qing-Long; Ge, Xiaohua

2017-09-22

This paper is concerned with the problem of robust H∞ control of an uncertain discrete-time Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system with an interval-like time-varying delay. A novel finite-sum inequality-based method is proposed to provide a tighter estimation on the forward difference of certain Lyapunov functional, leading to a less conservative result. First, an auxiliary vector function is used to establish two finite-sum inequalities, which can produce tighter bounds for the finite-sum terms appearing in the forward difference of the Lyapunov functional. Second, a matrix-based quadratic convex approach is employed to equivalently convert the original matrix inequality including a quadratic polynomial on the time-varying delay into two boundary matrix inequalities, which delivers a less conservative bounded real lemma (BRL) for the resultant closed-loop system. Third, based on the BRL, a novel sufficient condition on the existence of suitable robust H∞ fuzzy controllers is derived. Finally, two numerical examples and a computer-simulated truck-trailer system are provided to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, David G.; Yates, David; Tebaldi, Claudia

2008-12-01

Climate change may impact water resources management conditions in difficult-to-predict ways. A key challenge for water managers is how to incorporate highly uncertain information about potential climate change from global models into local- and regional-scale water management models and tools to support local planning. This paper presents a new method for developing large ensembles of local daily weather that reflect a wide range of plausible future climate change scenarios while preserving many statistical properties of local historical weather patterns. This method is demonstrated by evaluating the possible impact of climate change on the Inland Empire Utilities Agency service area in southern California. The analysis shows that climate change could impact the region, increasing outdoor water demand by up to 10% by 2040, decreasing local water supply by up to 40% by 2040, and decreasing sustainable groundwater yields by up to 15% by 2040. The range of plausible climate projections suggests the need for the region to augment its long-range water management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change.

Ground-level climate at a peatland wind farm in Scotland is affected by wind turbine operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, Alona; Burton, Ralph R.; Lee, Susan E.; Mobbs, Stephen; Ostle, Nicholas; Smith, Victoria; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette

2016-04-01

The global drive to produce low-carbon energy has resulted in an unprecedented deployment of onshore wind turbines, representing a significant land use change for wind energy generation with uncertain consequences for local climatic conditions and the regulation of ecosystem processes. Here, we present high-resolution data from a wind farm collected during operational and idle periods that shows the wind farm affected several measures of ground-level climate. Specifically, we discovered that operational wind turbines raised air temperature by 0.18 °C and absolute humidity (AH) by 0.03 g m-3 during the night, and increased the variability in air, surface and soil temperature throughout the diurnal cycle. Further, the microclimatic influence of turbines on air temperature and AH decreased logarithmically with distance from the nearest turbine. These effects on ground-level microclimate, including soil temperature, have uncertain implications for biogeochemical processes and ecosystem carbon cycling, including soil carbon stocks. Consequently, understanding needs to be improved to determine the overall carbon balance of wind energy.

The Communicative Function of Sad Facial Expressions.

PubMed

Reed, Lawrence Ian; DeScioli, Peter

2017-01-01

What are the communicative functions of sad facial expressions? Research shows that people feel sadness in response to losses but it's unclear whether sad expressions function to communicate losses to others and if so, what makes these signals credible. Here we use economic games to test the hypothesis that sad expressions lend credibility to claims of loss. Participants play the role of either a proposer or recipient in a game with a fictional backstory and real monetary payoffs. The proposers view a (fictional) video of the recipient's character displaying either a neutral or sad expression paired with a claim of loss. The proposer then decided how much money to give to the recipient. In three experiments, we test alternative theories by using situations in which the recipient's losses were uncertain (Experiment 1), the recipient's losses were certain (Experiment 2), or the recipient claims failed gains rather than losses (Experiment 3). Overall, we find that participants gave more money to recipients who displayed sad expressions compared to neutral expressions, but only under conditions of uncertain loss. This finding supports the hypothesis that sad expressions function to increase the credibility of claims of loss.

Gratitude, protective buffering, and cognitive dissonance: How families respond to pediatric whole exome sequencing in the absence of actionable results.

PubMed

Werner-Lin, Allison; Zaspel, Lori; Carlson, Mae; Mueller, Rebecca; Walser, Sarah A; Desai, Ria; Bernhardt, Barbara A

2018-03-01

Clinical genome and exome sequencing (CGES) may identify variants leading to targeted management of existing conditions. Yet, CGES often fails to identify pathogenic diagnostic variants and introduces uncertainties by detecting variants of uncertain significance (VUS) and secondary findings. This study investigated how families understand findings and adjust their perspectives on CGES. As part of NIH's Clinical Sequencing Exploratory Research Consortium, children were recruited from clinics at the Children's Hospital of Pennsylvania (CHOP) and offered exome sequencing. Primary pathogenic and possibly pathogenic, and some secondary findings were returned. Investigators digitally recorded results disclosure sessions and conducted 3-month follow up interviews with 10 adolescents and a parent. An interdisciplinary team coded all transcripts. Participants were initially disappointed with findings, yet reactions evolved within disclosure sessions and at 3-month interviews toward acceptance and satisfaction. Families erroneously expected, and prepared extensively, to learn about risk for common conditions. During disclosure sessions, parents and adolescents varied in how they monitored and responded to each others reactions. Several misinterpreted, or overestimated, the utility of findings to attribute meaning and achieve closure for the CGES experience. Participants perceived testing as an opportunity to improve disease management despite results that did not introduce new treatments or diagnoses. Future research may examine whether families experience cognitive dissonance regarding discrepancies between expectations and findings, and how protective buffering minimizes the burden of disappointment on loved ones. As CGES is increasingly integrated into clinical care providers must contend with tempering family expectations and interpretations of findings while managing complex medical care. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Forestry herbicide influences on biodiversity and wildlife habitat in southern forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Karl V.; Miller, James H.

In the southern United States, herbicide use continues to increase for timber management in commercial pine (Pinus spp.) plantations, for modifying wildlife habitats, and for invasive plant control. Several studies have reported that single applications of forestry herbicides at stand initiation have minor and temporary impacts on plant communities and wildlife habitat conditions, with some reports of enhanced habitat conditions for both game and nongame species. Due to the high resiliency of floral communities, plant species richness and diversity rebound rapidly after single herbicide treatments, with short- and long-term compositional shifts according to the selectivity and efficacy of the herbicidemore » used. Recently, however, a shift to the Southeast in North American timber supplies has resulted in increased forest management intensity. Current site-preparation techniques rely on herbicide combinations, often coupled with mechanical treatments and >1 years of post-planting applications to enhance the spectrum and duration of vegetation control. This near-total control of associated vegetation at establishment and more rapid pine canopy closure, coupled with shortened and repeated rotations, likely will affect plant diversity and wildlife habitat quality. Development of mitigation methods at the stand and landscape levels will be required to minimize vegetative and wildlife impacts while allowing continued improvement in pine productivity. More uncertain are long-term impacts of increasing invasive plant occupation and the projected increase in herbicide use that will be needed to reverse this worsening situation. In addition, the potential of herbicides to meet wildlife management objectives in areas where traditional techniques have high social costs (e.g., prescribed fire) should be fully explored.« less

Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

2015-12-01

Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

Successional dynamics in Neotropical forests are as uncertain as they are predictable

PubMed Central

Norden, Natalia; Angarita, Héctor A.; Bongers, Frans; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Granzow-de la Cerda, Iñigo; van Breugel, Michiel; Lebrija-Trejos, Edwin; Meave, Jorge A.; Vandermeer, John; Williamson, G. Bruce; Finegan, Bryan; Mesquita, Rita; Chazdon, Robin L.

2015-01-01

Although forest succession has traditionally been approached as a deterministic process, successional trajectories of vegetation change vary widely, even among nearby stands with similar environmental conditions and disturbance histories. Here, we provide the first attempt, to our knowledge, to quantify predictability and uncertainty during succession based on the most extensive long-term datasets ever assembled for Neotropical forests. We develop a novel approach that integrates deterministic and stochastic components into different candidate models describing the dynamical interactions among three widely used and interrelated forest attributes—stem density, basal area, and species density. Within each of the seven study sites, successional trajectories were highly idiosyncratic, even when controlling for prior land use, environment, and initial conditions in these attributes. Plot factors were far more important than stand age in explaining successional trajectories. For each site, the best-fit model was able to capture the complete set of time series in certain attributes only when both the deterministic and stochastic components were set to similar magnitudes. Surprisingly, predictability of stem density, basal area, and species density did not show consistent trends across attributes, study sites, or land use history, and was independent of plot size and time series length. The model developed here represents the best approach, to date, for characterizing autogenic successional dynamics and demonstrates the low predictability of successional trajectories. These high levels of uncertainty suggest that the impacts of allogenic factors on rates of change during tropical forest succession are far more pervasive than previously thought, challenging the way ecologists view and investigate forest regeneration. PMID:26080411

Successional dynamics in Neotropical forests are as uncertain as they are predictable.

PubMed

Norden, Natalia; Angarita, Héctor A; Bongers, Frans; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Granzow-de la Cerda, Iñigo; van Breugel, Michiel; Lebrija-Trejos, Edwin; Meave, Jorge A; Vandermeer, John; Williamson, G Bruce; Finegan, Bryan; Mesquita, Rita; Chazdon, Robin L

2015-06-30

Although forest succession has traditionally been approached as a deterministic process, successional trajectories of vegetation change vary widely, even among nearby stands with similar environmental conditions and disturbance histories. Here, we provide the first attempt, to our knowledge, to quantify predictability and uncertainty during succession based on the most extensive long-term datasets ever assembled for Neotropical forests. We develop a novel approach that integrates deterministic and stochastic components into different candidate models describing the dynamical interactions among three widely used and interrelated forest attributes--stem density, basal area, and species density. Within each of the seven study sites, successional trajectories were highly idiosyncratic, even when controlling for prior land use, environment, and initial conditions in these attributes. Plot factors were far more important than stand age in explaining successional trajectories. For each site, the best-fit model was able to capture the complete set of time series in certain attributes only when both the deterministic and stochastic components were set to similar magnitudes. Surprisingly, predictability of stem density, basal area, and species density did not show consistent trends across attributes, study sites, or land use history, and was independent of plot size and time series length. The model developed here represents the best approach, to date, for characterizing autogenic successional dynamics and demonstrates the low predictability of successional trajectories. These high levels of uncertainty suggest that the impacts of allogenic factors on rates of change during tropical forest succession are far more pervasive than previously thought, challenging the way ecologists view and investigate forest regeneration.

Efficient Saccade Planning Requires Time and Clear Choices

PubMed Central

Ghahghaei, Saiedeh; Verghese, Preeti

2015-01-01

We use eye movements constantly to gather information. Saccades are efficient when they maximize the information required for the task, however there is controversy regarding the efficiency of eye movement planning. For example, saccades are efficient when searching for a single target (Nature, 434 (2005) 387–91), but are inefficient when searching for an unknown number of targets in noise, particularly under time pressure (Vision Research 74 (2012), 61–71). In this study, we used a multiple-target search paradigm and explored whether altering the noise level or increasing saccadic latency improved efficiency. Experiments used stimuli with two levels of discriminability such that saccades to the less discriminable stimuli provided more information. When these two noise levels corresponded to low and moderate visibility, most observers did not preferentially select informative locations, but looked at uncertain and probable target locations equally often. We then examined whether eye movements could be made more efficient by increasing the discriminability of the two stimulus levels and by delaying the first saccade so that there was more time for decision processes to influence the saccade choices. Some observers did indeed increase the proportion of their saccades to informative locations under these conditions. Others, however, made as many saccades as they could during the limited time and were unselective about the saccade goal. A clear trend that emerges across all experiments is that conditions with a greater proportion of efficient saccades are associated with a longer latency to initiate saccades, suggesting that the choice of informative locations requires deliberate planning. PMID:26037735

Parental monitoring at age 11 and smoking initiation up to age 17 among Blacks and Whites: a prospective investigation.

PubMed

Bohnert, Kipling M; Ríos-Bedoya, Carlos F; Breslau, Naomi

2009-12-01

Parental monitoring has been identified as a predictor of adolescent smoking initiation. However, it is uncertain if the association is uniform across different racial groups. Random samples of low birth-weight and normal birth-weight children were drawn from newborn discharge lists (1983-1985) of two major hospitals in southeast Michigan, one serving an inner city and the other serving suburbs. Assessments occurred at ages 6, 11, and 17 years. Statistical analysis was conducted on children with data on parent monitoring at age 11 and tobacco use at age 17 who had never smoked a cigarette up to age 11 (n = 572). Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the association between parent monitoring and children's smoking initiation. Two-way interactions were tested. The relationship between parent monitoring at age 11 and child smoking initiation from ages 11 to 17 varied by race. Among White children, an increase of 1 point on the parent monitoring scale signaled an 11% reduction in the odds of initiating smoking by age 17. In contrast, parent monitoring was not significantly associated with smoking initiation among Black children. The results suggest a differential influence of parent monitoring on adolescent smoking between White and Black children. Future research would benefit from close attention to parental goals and concerns and to extra-familial factors that shape smoking behavior across racially and socially disparate communities.

Assessing risk based on uncertain avalanche activity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeidler, Antonia; Fromm, Reinhard

2015-04-01

Avalanches may affect critical infrastructure and may cause great economic losses. The planning horizon of infrastructures, e.g. hydropower generation facilities, reaches well into the future. Based on the results of previous studies on the effect of changing meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature) and the effect on avalanche activity we assume that there will be a change of the risk pattern in future. The decision makers need to understand what the future might bring to best formulate their mitigation strategies. Therefore, we explore a commercial risk software to calculate risk for the coming years that might help in decision processes. The software @risk, is known to many larger companies, and therefore we explore its capabilities to include avalanche risk simulations in order to guarantee a comparability of different risks. In a first step, we develop a model for a hydropower generation facility that reflects the problem of changing avalanche activity patterns in future by selecting relevant input parameters and assigning likely probability distributions. The uncertain input variables include the probability of avalanches affecting an object, the vulnerability of an object, the expected costs for repairing the object and the expected cost due to interruption. The crux is to find the distribution that best represents the input variables under changing meteorological conditions. Our focus is on including the uncertain probability of avalanches based on the analysis of past avalanche data and expert knowledge. In order to explore different likely outcomes we base the analysis on three different climate scenarios (likely, worst case, baseline). For some variables, it is possible to fit a distribution to historical data, whereas in cases where the past dataset is insufficient or not available the software allows to select from over 30 different distribution types. The Monte Carlo simulation uses the probability distribution of uncertain variables using all valid combinations of the values of input variables to simulate all possible outcomes. In our case the output is the expected risk (Euro/year) for each object (e.g. water intake) considered and the entire hydropower generation system. The output is again a distribution that is interpreted by the decision makers as the final strategy depends on the needs and requirements of the end-user, which may be driven by personal preferences. In this presentation, we will show a way on how we used the uncertain information on avalanche activity in future to subsequently use it in a commercial risk software and therefore bringing the knowledge of natural hazard experts to decision makers.

Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Jonathan D.; Zeff, Harrison B.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W.

2014-10-01

While optimality is a foundational mathematical concept in water resources planning and management, "optimal" solutions may be vulnerable to failure if deeply uncertain future conditions deviate from those assumed during optimization. These vulnerabilities may produce severely asymmetric impacts across a region, making it vital to evaluate the robustness of management strategies as well as their impacts for regional stakeholders. In this study, we contribute a multistakeholder many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework that blends many-objective search and uncertainty analysis tools to discover key tradeoffs between water supply alternatives and their robustness to deep uncertainties (e.g., population pressures, climate change, and financial risks). The proposed framework is demonstrated for four interconnected water utilities representing major stakeholders in the "Research Triangle" region of North Carolina, U.S. The utilities supply well over one million customers and have the ability to collectively manage drought via transfer agreements and shared infrastructure. We show that water portfolios for this region that compose optimal tradeoffs (i.e., Pareto-approximate solutions) under expected future conditions may suffer significantly degraded performance with only modest changes in deeply uncertain hydrologic and economic factors. We then use the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to identify which uncertain factors drive the individual and collective vulnerabilities for the four cooperating utilities. Our framework identifies key stakeholder dependencies and robustness tradeoffs associated with cooperative regional planning, which are critical to understanding the tensions between individual versus regional water supply goals. Cooperative demand management was found to be the key factor controlling the robustness of regional water supply planning, dominating other hydroclimatic and economic uncertainties through the 2025 planning horizon. Results suggest that a modest reduction in the projected rate of demand growth (from approximately 3% per year to 2.4%) will substantially improve the utilities' robustness to future uncertainty and reduce the potential for regional tensions. The proposed multistakeholder MORDM framework offers critical insights into the risks and challenges posed by rising water demands and hydrological uncertainties, providing a planning template for regions now forced to confront rapidly evolving water scarcity risks.

Robust adaptive controller design for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems using online T-S fuzzy-neural modeling approach.

PubMed

Chien, Yi-Hsing; Wang, Wei-Yen; Leu, Yih-Guang; Lee, Tsu-Tian

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a novel method of online modeling and control via the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy-neural model for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with some kinds of outputs. Although studies about adaptive T-S fuzzy-neural controllers have been made on some nonaffine nonlinear systems, little is known about the more complicated uncertain nonlinear systems. Because the nonlinear functions of the systems are uncertain, traditional T-S fuzzy control methods can model and control them only with great difficulty, if at all. Instead of modeling these uncertain functions directly, we propose that a T-S fuzzy-neural model approximates a so-called virtual linearized system (VLS) of the system, which includes modeling errors and external disturbances. We also propose an online identification algorithm for the VLS and put significant emphasis on robust tracking controller design using an adaptive scheme for the uncertain systems. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems is proven by using strictly positive real Lyapunov theory. The proposed overall scheme guarantees that the outputs of the closed-loop systems asymptotically track the desired output trajectories. To illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method, simulation results are given in this paper.

Chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy-like neuropathy as an initial presentation of Crohn's disease.

PubMed

Kim, Suji; Kang, Seok-Jae; Oh, Ki-Wook; Ahn, Byung Kyu; Lee, Hang Lak; Han, Dong Soo; Jang, Kiseok; Kim, Young Seo

2015-03-28

Chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP) is a rare complication of Crohn's disease (CD), and it is uncertain whether it is associated with CD itself or with its treatment. We describe a case of CIDP-like neuropathy as an initial symptom of CD. The neurologic symptoms of the patient which responded partially to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) recovered after resection of the appendiceal CD. A 17-year-old male had experienced three separate attacks of motor weakness and paresthesia of all four extremities over a period of 7 months. The electrophysiologic findings revealed a demyelinating sensory-motor polyneuropathy which was compatible with CIDP. However, repeated intravenous IVIG (2 g/kg) treatment gave only a partial response. Four days after the last discharge, he was diagnosed as appendiceal CD after surgical resection of a periappendiceal abscess. His neurologic symptoms and electrophysiologic findings recovered without any maintenance therapy. CIDP-like neuropathy can be an initial presentation of CD, and recovery of the CIDP symptoms may result from resection of the CD. Clinicians should be aware of the possibility of CD in patients with intractable CIDP symptoms.

White Dwarf Asteroseismology and the 12C(α,γ)16O Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, Travis S.

2003-04-01

Due to a new global analysis method, it is now possible to measure the internal composition of pulsating white dwarf stars, even with relatively simple theoretical models. The precise internal mixture of carbon and oxygen is the largest single source of uncertainty in ages derived from white dwarf cosmochronometry, and it contains information about the rate of the astrophysically important, but experimentally uncertain, 12C(α,γ)16O nuclear reaction. Recent determinations of the internal composition and structure of two helium-atmosphere variable (DBV) white dwarf stars, GD 358 and CBS 114, initially led to conflicting implied rates for the 12C(α,γ)16O reaction. If both stars were formed through single-star evolution, then the initial analyses of their pulsation frequencies must have differed in some systematic way. I present improved fits to the two sets of pulsation data, resolving the tension between the initial results and leading to a value for the 12C(α,γ)16O reaction rate that is consistent with recent laboratory measurements.

Long-range strategic planning: a case study.

PubMed

Moller-Tiger, D

1999-05-01

In highly competitive healthcare markets, integrated delivery systems (IDSs) that have exhausted traditional means of maintaining market competitiveness are challenged to identify effective new strategies that will ensure market success in an uncertain future. Finding itself facing this challenge, Legacy Health System, a Portland, Oregon-based IDS, undertook an innovative, long-range, strategic-planning initiative based on an evaluation of key market trends. Legacy discovered that it might benefit from making some changes in the way it approached its mission. These changes included focusing on specific customer segments, developing products and services aimed at those customers, and broadening physician and insurer relationships to enhance service and improve customers' access to health care.

Variety in planetary systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetherill, George W.

1993-01-01

Observation of circumstellar disks, regular satellite systems of outer planets, and planet-size objects orbiting pulsars support the supposition that formation of planetary systems is a robust, rather than a fragile, byproduct of the formation and evolution of stars. The extent to which these systems may be expected to resemble one another and our Solar System, either in overall structure or in detail remains uncertain. When the full range of possible stellar masses, disk masses, and initial specific angular momenta are considered, the possible variety of planetary configurations is very large. Numerical modeling indicates a difference between the formation of small, inner, terrestrial planets and the outer planets.

Myxedema coma.

PubMed

Wartofsky, Leonard

2006-12-01

Myxedema coma is the term given to the most severe presentation of profound hypothyroidism and is often fatal in spite of therapy. Decompensation of the hypothyroid patient into a coma may be precipitated by a number of drugs, systemic illnesses (eg, pneumonia), and other causes. It typically presents in older women in the winter months and is associated with signs of hypothyroidism, hypothermia, hyponatremia, hypercarbia, and hypoxemia. Treatment must be initiated promptly in an intensive care unit setting. Although thyroid hormone therapy is critical to survival, it remains uncertain whether it should be administered as thyroxine, triiodothyronine, or both. Adjunctive measures, such as ventilation, warming, fluids, antibiotics, pressors, and corticosteroids, may be essential for survival.

A gaseous metal disk around a white dwarf.

PubMed

Gänsicke, B T; Marsh, T R; Southworth, J; Rebassa-Mansergas, A

2006-12-22

The destiny of planetary systems through the late evolution of their host stars is very uncertain. We report a metal-rich gas disk around a moderately hot and young white dwarf. A dynamical model of the double-peaked emission lines constrains the outer disk radius to just 1.2 solar radii. The likely origin of the disk is a tidally disrupted asteroid, which has been destabilized from its initial orbit at a distance of more than 1000 solar radii by the interaction with a relatively massive planetesimal object or a planet. The white dwarf mass of 0.77 solar mass implies that planetary systems may form around high-mass stars.

Simple bone cyst of mandible mimicking periapical cyst

PubMed Central

HS, Charan Babu; Rai, Bhagawan Das; Nair, Manju A.; Astekar, Madhusudan S.

2012-01-01

Simple bone cysts (SBC) are pseudocysts occurring less commonly in the maxillofacial region. The uncertain and unclear etiopathogenesis led to numerous synonyms to refer this particular cyst. These cysts are devoid of an epithelial lining and are usually empty or contain blood or straw-colored fluid. In jaws initially it mimics a periapical cyst and later can lead to cortical bone expansion warranting for radical approach, which is seldom required. SBC is predominantly diagnosed in first two decades of life. Here we report a case of solitary bone cyst mimicking a periapical cyst of a mandibular molar in a 37-year-old patient. PMID:24765458

Combined Retrievals of Boreal Forest Fire Aerosol Properties with a Polarimeter and Lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knobelspiesse, K.; Cairns, B.; Ottaviani, M.; Ferrare, R.; Haire, J.; Hostetler, C.; Obland, M.; Rogers, R.; Redemann, J.; Shinozuka, Y.;

Common-envelope ejection in massive binary stars. Implications for the progenitors of GW150914 and GW151226

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruckow, M. U.; Tauris, T. M.; Langer, N.; Szécsi, D.; Marchant, P.; Podsiadlowski, Ph.

2016-11-01

Context. The recently detected gravitational wave signals (GW150914 and GW151226) of the merger event of a pair of relatively massive stellar-mass black holes (BHs) calls for an investigation of the formation of such progenitor systems in general. Aims: We analyse the common-envelope (CE) stage of the traditional formation channel in binaries where the first-formed compact object undergoes an in-spiral inside the envelope of its evolved companion star and ejects the envelope in this process. Methods: We calculated envelope binding energies of donor stars with initial masses between 4 and 115M⊙ for metallicities of Z = ZMilky Way ≃ Z⊙/ 2 and Z = Z⊙/ 50, and derived minimum masses of in-spiralling objects needed to eject these envelopes. Results: In addition to producing double white dwarf and double neutron star binaries, CE evolution may also produce massive BH-BH systems with individual BH component masses of up to 50 - 60M⊙, in particular for donor stars evolved to giants beyond the Hertzsprung gap. However, the physics of envelope ejection of massive stars remains uncertain. We discuss the applicability of the energy-budget formalism, the location of the bifurcation point, the recombination energy, and the accretion energy during in-spiral as possible energy sources, and also comment on the effect of inflated helium cores. Conclusions: Massive stars in a wide range of metallicities and with initial masses of up to at least 115M⊙ may shed their envelopes and survive CE evolution, depending on their initial orbital parameters, similarly to the situation for intermediate- and low-mass stars with degenerate cores. In addition to being dependent on stellar radius, the envelope binding energies and λ-values also depend on the applied convective core-overshooting parameter, whereas these structure parameters are basically independent of metallicity for stars with initial masses below 60M⊙. Metal-rich stars ≳60M⊙ become luminous blue variables and do not evolve to reach the red giant stage. We conclude that based on stellar structure calculations, and in the view of the usual simple energy budget analysis, events like GW150914 and GW151226 might be produced by the CE channel. Calculations of post-CE orbital separations, however, and thus the estimated LIGO detection rates, remain highly uncertain.

Robust LS-SVM-based adaptive constrained control for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with time-varying predefined performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jianjun; Wei, Caisheng; Dai, Honghua; Yuan, Jianping

2018-03-01

This paper focuses on robust adaptive control for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems subject to input saturation and external disturbance with guaranteed predefined tracking performance. To reduce the limitations of classical predefined performance control method in the presence of unknown initial tracking errors, a novel predefined performance function with time-varying design parameters is first proposed. Then, aiming at reducing the complexity of nonlinear approximations, only two least-square-support-vector-machine-based (LS-SVM-based) approximators with two design parameters are required through norm form transformation of the original system. Further, a novel LS-SVM-based adaptive constrained control scheme is developed under the time-vary predefined performance using backstepping technique. Wherein, to avoid the tedious analysis and repeated differentiations of virtual control laws in the backstepping technique, a simple and robust finite-time-convergent differentiator is devised to only extract its first-order derivative at each step in the presence of external disturbance. In this sense, the inherent demerit of backstepping technique-;explosion of terms; brought by the recursive virtual controller design is conquered. Moreover, an auxiliary system is designed to compensate the control saturation. Finally, three groups of numerical simulations are employed to validate the effectiveness of the newly developed differentiator and the proposed adaptive constrained control scheme.

Non-specific effects of vaccines: plausible and potentially important, but implications uncertain.

PubMed

Pollard, Andrew J; Finn, Adam; Curtis, Nigel

2017-11-01

Non-specific effects (NSE) or heterologous effects of vaccines are proposed to explain observations in some studies that certain vaccines have an impact beyond the direct protection against infection with the specific pathogen for which the vaccines were designed. The importance and implications of such effects remain controversial. There are several known immunological mechanisms which could lead to NSE, since it is widely recognised that the generation of specific immunity is initiated by non-specific innate immune mechanisms that may also have wider effects on adaptive immune function. However, there are no published studies that demonstrate a mechanistic link between such immunological phenomena and clinically relevant NSE in humans. While it is highly plausible that some vaccines do have NSE, their magnitude and duration, and thus importance, remain uncertain. Although the WHO recently concluded that current evidence does not justify changes to immunisation policy, further studies of sufficient size and quality are needed to assess the importance of NSE for all-cause mortality. This could provide insights into vaccine immunobiology with important implications for infant health and survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Planetary micro-rover operations on Mars using a Bayesian framework for inference and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Mark A.; Li, Junquan; Quine, Brendan M.

2016-03-01

With the recent progress toward the application of commercially-available hardware to small-scale space missions, it is now becoming feasible for groups of small, efficient robots based on low-power embedded hardware to perform simple tasks on other planets in the place of large-scale, heavy and expensive robots. In this paper, we describe design and programming of the Beaver micro-rover developed for Northern Light, a Canadian initiative to send a small lander and rover to Mars to study the Martian surface and subsurface. For a small, hardware-limited rover to handle an uncertain and mostly unknown environment without constant management by human operators, we use a Bayesian network of discrete random variables as an abstraction of expert knowledge about the rover and its environment, and inference operations for control. A framework for efficient construction and inference into a Bayesian network using only the C language and fixed-point mathematics on embedded hardware has been developed for the Beaver to make intelligent decisions with minimal sensor data. We study the performance of the Beaver as it probabilistically maps a simple outdoor environment with sensor models that include uncertainty. Results indicate that the Beaver and other small and simple robotic platforms can make use of a Bayesian network to make intelligent decisions in uncertain planetary environments.

Optimal Planning and Problem-Solving

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clemet, Bradley; Schaffer, Steven; Rabideau, Gregg

2008-01-01

CTAEMS MDP Optimal Planner is a problem-solving software designed to command a single spacecraft/rover, or a team of spacecraft/rovers, to perform the best action possible at all times according to an abstract model of the spacecraft/rover and its environment. It also may be useful in solving logistical problems encountered in commercial applications such as shipping and manufacturing. The planner reasons around uncertainty according to specified probabilities of outcomes using a plan hierarchy to avoid exploring certain kinds of suboptimal actions. Also, planned actions are calculated as the state-action space is expanded, rather than afterward, to reduce by an order of magnitude the processing time and memory used. The software solves planning problems with actions that can execute concurrently, that have uncertain duration and quality, and that have functional dependencies on others that affect quality. These problems are modeled in a hierarchical planning language called C_TAEMS, a derivative of the TAEMS language for specifying domains for the DARPA Coordinators program. In realistic environments, actions often have uncertain outcomes and can have complex relationships with other tasks. The planner approaches problems by considering all possible actions that may be taken from any state reachable from a given, initial state, and from within the constraints of a given task hierarchy that specifies what tasks may be performed by which team member.

The cerebellum and decision making under uncertainty.

PubMed

Blackwood, Nigel; Ffytche, Dominic; Simmons, Andrew; Bentall, Richard; Murray, Robin; Howard, Robert

2004-06-01

This study aimed to identify the neural basis of probabilistic reasoning, a type of inductive inference that aids decision making under conditions of uncertainty. Eight normal subjects performed two separate two-alternative-choice tasks (the balls in a bottle and personality survey tasks) while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The experimental conditions within each task were chosen so that they differed only in their requirement to make a decision under conditions of uncertainty (probabilistic reasoning and frequency determination required) or under conditions of certainty (frequency determination required). The same visual stimuli and motor responses were used in the experimental conditions. We provide evidence that the neo-cerebellum, in conjunction with the premotor cortex, inferior parietal lobule and medial occipital cortex, mediates the probabilistic inferences that guide decision making under uncertainty. We hypothesise that the neo-cerebellum constructs internal working models of uncertain events in the external world, and that such probabilistic models subserve the predictive capacity central to induction. Copyright 2004 Elsevier B.V.

Rare Neural Correlations Implement Robotic Conditioning with Delayed Rewards and Disturbances

PubMed Central

Soltoggio, Andrea; Lemme, Andre; Reinhart, Felix; Steil, Jochen J.

2013-01-01

Neural conditioning associates cues and actions with following rewards. The environments in which robots operate, however, are pervaded by a variety of disturbing stimuli and uncertain timing. In particular, variable reward delays make it difficult to reconstruct which previous actions are responsible for following rewards. Such an uncertainty is handled by biological neural networks, but represents a challenge for computational models, suggesting the lack of a satisfactory theory for robotic neural conditioning. The present study demonstrates the use of rare neural correlations in making correct associations between rewards and previous cues or actions. Rare correlations are functional in selecting sparse synapses to be eligible for later weight updates if a reward occurs. The repetition of this process singles out the associating and reward-triggering pathways, and thereby copes with distal rewards. The neural network displays macro-level classical and operant conditioning, which is demonstrated in an interactive real-life human-robot interaction. The proposed mechanism models realistic conditioning in humans and animals and implements similar behaviors in neuro-robotic platforms. PMID:23565092

Feeling Is Believing: Evaluative Conditioning and the Ethics of Pharmaceutical Advertising.

PubMed

Biegler, Paul; Vargas, Patrick

2016-06-01

A central goal in regulating direct-to-consumer advertising of prescription pharmaceuticals (DTCA) is to ensure that explicit drug claims are truthful. Yet imagery can also alter viewer attitudes, and the degree to which this occurs in DTCA is uncertain. Addressing this data gap, we provide evidence that positive feelings produced by images can promote favourable beliefs about pharmaceuticals. We had participants view a fictitious anti-influenza drug paired with unrelated images that elicited either positive, neutral or negative feelings. Participants who viewed positive images rated the influenza drug as significantly more effective, safe, and beneficial than did participants who viewed negative images. This effect, known as evaluative conditioning, is well described in experimental social psychology but has not previously been shown with pharmaceuticals. We discuss how evaluative conditioning in DTCA may compromise viewer autonomy, and canvass possible regulatory responses.

A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

Distinct Neural Activities in Premotor Cortex during Natural Vocal Behaviors in a New World Primate, the Common Marmoset (Callithrix jacchus).

PubMed

Roy, Sabyasachi; Zhao, Lingyun; Wang, Xiaoqin

2016-11-30

Although evidence from human studies has long indicated the crucial role of the frontal cortex in speech production, it has remained uncertain whether the frontal cortex in nonhuman primates plays a similar role in vocal communication. Previous studies of prefrontal and premotor cortices of macaque monkeys have found neural signals associated with cue- and reward-conditioned vocal production, but not with self-initiated or spontaneous vocalizations (Coudé et al., 2011; Hage and Nieder, 2013), which casts doubt on the role of the frontal cortex of the Old World monkeys in vocal communication. A recent study of marmoset frontal cortex observed modulated neural activities associated with self-initiated vocal production (Miller et al., 2015), but it did not delineate whether these neural activities were specifically attributed to vocal production or if they may result from other nonvocal motor activity such as orofacial motor movement. In the present study, we attempted to resolve these issues and examined single neuron activities in premotor cortex during natural vocal exchanges in the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus), a highly vocal New World primate. Neural activation and suppression were observed both before and during self-initiated vocal production. Furthermore, by comparing neural activities between self-initiated vocal production and nonvocal orofacial motor movement, we identified a subpopulation of neurons in marmoset premotor cortex that was activated or suppressed by vocal production, but not by orofacial movement. These findings provide clear evidence of the premotor cortex's involvement in self-initiated vocal production in natural vocal behaviors of a New World primate. Human frontal cortex plays a crucial role in speech production. However, it has remained unclear whether the frontal cortex of nonhuman primates is involved in the production of self-initiated vocalizations during natural vocal communication. Using a wireless multichannel neural recording technique, we observed in the premotor cortex neural activation and suppression both before and during self-initiated vocalizations when marmosets, a highly vocal New World primate species, engaged in vocal exchanges with conspecifics. A novel finding of the present study is the discovery of a subpopulation of premotor cortex neurons that was activated by vocal production, but not by orofacial movement. These observations provide clear evidence of the premotor cortex's involvement in vocal production in a New World primate species. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3612168-12$15.00/0.

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems. Part 1: Theoretical Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-07

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework Fernando Paganini * John Doyle 1 December 7, 1994 Abst rac t This paper...Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...model and a number of constraints relevant to the analysis problem under consideration. In Part I of this paper we propose a theoretical framework which

Research of Uncertainty Reasoning in Pineapple Disease Identification System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Liqun; Fan, Haifeng

In order to deal with the uncertainty of evidences mostly existing in pineapple disease identification system, a reasoning model based on evidence credibility factor was established. The uncertainty reasoning method is discussed,including: uncertain representation of knowledge, uncertain representation of rules, uncertain representation of multi-evidences and update of reasoning rules. The reasoning can fully reflect the uncertainty in disease identification and reduce the influence of subjective factors on the accuracy of the system.

Scheduling in the Face of Uncertain Resource Consumption and Utility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frank, Jeremy; Dearden, Richard

2003-01-01

We discuss the problem of scheduling tasks that consume uncertain amounts of a resource with known capacity and where the tasks have uncertain utility. In these circumstances, we would like to find schedules that exceed a lower bound on the expected utility when executed. We show that the problems are NP- complete, and present some results that characterize the behavior of some simple heuristics over a variety of problem classes.

A linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shieh, L. S.; Sunkel, J. W.; Wang, Y. J.

1990-01-01

This paper presents a linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems. The uncertain systems under consideration are described by state equations with the presence of time-varying unknown-but-bounded uncertainty matrices. The method is based on linear quadratic regulator (LQR) theory and Liapunov stability theory. The robust stabilizing control law for a given uncertain system can be easily constructed from the symmetric positive-definite solution of the associated augmented Riccati equation. The proposed approach can be applied to matched and/or mismatched systems with uncertainty matrices in which only their matrix norms are bounded by some prescribed values and/or their entries are bounded by some prescribed constraint sets. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results.

Strong dependence of CO 2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

DOE PAGES

Goll, Daniel S.; Brovkin, Victor; Liski, Jari; ...

2015-08-12

The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of themore » recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr $-$1, which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr $-$1). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.« less

Strong dependence of CO 2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goll, Daniel S.; Brovkin, Victor; Liski, Jari

The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of themore » recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr $-$1, which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr $-$1). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.« less

A modified hybrid uncertain analysis method for dynamic response field of the LSOAAC with random and interval parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zi, Bin; Zhou, Bin

2016-07-01

For the prediction of dynamic response field of the luffing system of an automobile crane (LSOAAC) with random and interval parameters, a hybrid uncertain model is introduced. In the hybrid uncertain model, the parameters with certain probability distribution are modeled as random variables, whereas, the parameters with lower and upper bounds are modeled as interval variables instead of given precise values. Based on the hybrid uncertain model, the hybrid uncertain dynamic response equilibrium equation, in which different random and interval parameters are simultaneously included in input and output terms, is constructed. Then a modified hybrid uncertain analysis method (MHUAM) is proposed. In the MHUAM, based on random interval perturbation method, the first-order Taylor series expansion and the first-order Neumann series, the dynamic response expression of the LSOAAC is developed. Moreover, the mathematical characteristics of extrema of bounds of dynamic response are determined by random interval moment method and monotonic analysis technique. Compared with the hybrid Monte Carlo method (HMCM) and interval perturbation method (IPM), numerical results show the feasibility and efficiency of the MHUAM for solving the hybrid LSOAAC problems. The effects of different uncertain models and parameters on the LSOAAC response field are also investigated deeply, and numerical results indicate that the impact made by the randomness in the thrust of the luffing cylinder F is larger than that made by the gravity of the weight in suspension Q . In addition, the impact made by the uncertainty in the displacement between the lower end of the lifting arm and the luffing cylinder a is larger than that made by the length of the lifting arm L .

Allogenic and Autogenic Controls on Carbon Uptake and Release since Mid-Holocene Peat Initiation in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Packalen, M.; Finkelstein, S. A.; McLaughlin, J.

2014-12-01

Current interglacial development of a nearly continuous peat cover in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada has resulted in a globally significant carbon (C) reservoir. Yet, the fate of peatland C stores and related climate system feedbacks remain uncertain under scenarios of a changing climate and enhanced anthropogenic pressure. Here, we examine peatland development in the HBL in relation to Holocene C-dynamics, together with records of paleo- and modern climate, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and paleoenvironmental change. We report that the timing of peat initiation is tightly coupled with GIA in the HBL, while peatland age, trophic status, and paleoclimate contribute to explaining some of the temporal variation in C accumulation rates (CARs). Our results show that CARs are greatest from younger, minerotrophic peatlands and in association with warmer Holocene climates. Peat initiation rates and CARs in the HBL were greatest during the mid-Holocene; however, model evidence indicates that two-thirds of the HBL C pool is stored in peat of late Holocene age, owing to long-term peatland expansion and development. Since mid-Holocene peat initiation, the HBL has been a net C-sink and currently stores ~ 30 Pg C, with spatial climate patterns accounting for up to half of the C-mass distribution. Yet, the HBL has also been a modest C-source since peat initiation, with 85% of the losses occurring during the late Holocene. Our results indicate that the HBL may have been a potential terrestrial source of 1 - 7 Tg CH4 y-1 to the late Holocene atmosphere, due to the decay of previously accrued peat, under wetter conditions than present, and from a landscape occupied by an abundance of minerotrophic peatlands. While the peatlands of the HBL may continue to function as a globally significant C reservoir, conservative climate scenarios predict a warmer and wetter HBL in the next century that may lie outside the range of past climate variability. Disproportionate hydroclimatic change may alter the net water balance in the HBL resulting in C losses that may have important implications for the global C budget and climate system. Further investigation regarding autogenic and allogenic controls on spatial-temporal C dynamics is warranted and may contribute to reducing the uncertainty concerning the HBL's potential to remain a long-term net C-sink.

MAGDM linear-programming models with distinct uncertain preference structures.

PubMed

Xu, Zeshui S; Chen, Jian

2008-10-01

Group decision making with preference information on alternatives is an interesting and important research topic which has been receiving more and more attention in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to investigate multiple-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems with distinct uncertain preference structures. We develop some linear-programming models for dealing with the MAGDM problems, where the information about attribute weights is incomplete, and the decision makers have their preferences on alternatives. The provided preference information can be represented in the following three distinct uncertain preference structures: 1) interval utility values; 2) interval fuzzy preference relations; and 3) interval multiplicative preference relations. We first establish some linear-programming models based on decision matrix and each of the distinct uncertain preference structures and, then, develop some linear-programming models to integrate all three structures of subjective uncertain preference information provided by the decision makers and the objective information depicted in the decision matrix. Furthermore, we propose a simple and straightforward approach in ranking and selecting the given alternatives. It is worth pointing out that the developed models can also be used to deal with the situations where the three distinct uncertain preference structures are reduced to the traditional ones, i.e., utility values, fuzzy preference relations, and multiplicative preference relations. Finally, we use a practical example to illustrate in detail the calculation process of the developed approach.

Processing uncertain RFID data in traceability supply chains.

PubMed

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie; Guo, Guangjun; Jiang, Tong

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries.

Processing Uncertain RFID Data in Traceability Supply Chains

PubMed Central

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries. PMID:24737978

Transient flow conditions in probabilistic wellhead protection: importance and ways to manage spatial and temporal uncertainty in capture zone delineation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Rodriguez-Pretelin, A.; Nowak, W.

2012-12-01

"From an engineering standpoint, the quantification of uncertainty is extremely important not only because it allows estimating risk but mostly because it allows taking optimal decisions in an uncertain framework" (Renard, 2007). The most common way to account for uncertainty in the field of subsurface hydrology and wellhead protection is to randomize spatial parameters, e.g. the log-hydraulic conductivity or porosity. This enables water managers to take robust decisions in delineating wellhead protection zones with rationally chosen safety margins in the spirit of probabilistic risk management. Probabilistic wellhead protection zones are commonly based on steady-state flow fields. However, several past studies showed that transient flow conditions may substantially influence the shape and extent of catchments. Therefore, we believe they should be accounted for in the probabilistic assessment and in the delineation process. The aim of our work is to show the significance of flow transients and to investigate the interplay between spatial uncertainty and flow transients in wellhead protection zone delineation. To this end, we advance our concept of probabilistic capture zone delineation (Enzenhoefer et al., 2012) that works with capture probabilities and other probabilistic criteria for delineation. The extended framework is able to evaluate the time fraction that any point on a map falls within a capture zone. In short, we separate capture probabilities into spatial/statistical and time-related frequencies. This will provide water managers additional information on how to manage a well catchment in the light of possible hazard conditions close to the capture boundary under uncertain and time-variable flow conditions. In order to save computational costs, we take advantage of super-positioned flow components with time-variable coefficients. We assume an instantaneous development of steady-state flow conditions after each temporal change in driving forces, following an idea by Festger and Walter, 2002. These quasi steady-state flow fields are cast into a geostatistical Monte Carlo framework to admit and evaluate the influence of parameter uncertainty on the delineation process. Furthermore, this framework enables conditioning on observed data with any conditioning scheme, such as rejection sampling, Ensemble Kalman Filters, etc. To further reduce the computational load, we use the reverse formulation of advective-dispersive transport. We simulate the reverse transport by particle tracking random walk in order to avoid numerical dispersion to account for well arrival times.

Machining and grinding: High rate deformation in practice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Follansbee, P.S.

1993-04-01

Machining and grinding are well-established material-working operations involving highly non-uniform deformation and failure processes. A typical machining operation is characterized by uncertain boundary conditions (e.g.,surface interactions), three-dimensional stress states, large strains, high strain rates, non-uniform temperatures, highly localized deformations, and failure by both nominally ductile and brittle mechanisms. While machining and grinding are thought to be dominated by empiricism, even a cursory inspection leads one to the conclusion that this results more from necessity arising out of the complicated and highly interdisciplinary nature of the processes than from the lack thereof. With these conditions in mind, the purpose of thismore » paper is to outline the current understanding of strain rate effects in metals.« less

Machining and grinding: High rate deformation in practice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Follansbee, P.S.

1993-01-01

Machining and grinding are well-established material-working operations involving highly non-uniform deformation and failure processes. A typical machining operation is characterized by uncertain boundary conditions (e.g.,surface interactions), three-dimensional stress states, large strains, high strain rates, non-uniform temperatures, highly localized deformations, and failure by both nominally ductile and brittle mechanisms. While machining and grinding are thought to be dominated by empiricism, even a cursory inspection leads one to the conclusion that this results more from necessity arising out of the complicated and highly interdisciplinary nature of the processes than from the lack thereof. With these conditions in mind, the purpose of thismore » paper is to outline the current understanding of strain rate effects in metals.« less

A new delay-independent condition for global robust stability of neural networks with time delays.

PubMed

Samli, Ruya

2015-06-01

This paper studies the problem of robust stability of dynamical neural networks with discrete time delays under the assumptions that the network parameters of the neural system are uncertain and norm-bounded, and the activation functions are slope-bounded. By employing the results of Lyapunov stability theory and matrix theory, new sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for delayed neural networks are presented. The results reported in this paper can be easily tested by checking some special properties of symmetric matrices associated with the parameter uncertainties of neural networks. We also present a numerical example to show the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Planning Using Robust Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Addressing climate change in long-term natural resource planning is difficult because future management conditions are deeply uncertain and the range of possible adaptation options are so extensive. These conditions pose challenges to standard optimization decision-support techniques. This talk will describe a methodology called Robust Decisionmaking (RDM) that can complement more traditional analytic approaches by utilizing screening-level water management models to evaluate large numbers of strategies against a wide range of plausible future scenarios. The presentation will describe a recent application of the methodology to evaluate climate adaptation strategies for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency in Southern California. This project found that RDM can provide a useful way for addressing climate change uncertainty and identify robust adaptation strategies.

Decentralised output feedback control of Markovian jump interconnected systems with unknown interconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Li-Wei; Yang, Guang-Hong

2017-07-01

The problem of decentralised output feedback control is addressed for Markovian jump interconnected systems with unknown interconnections and general transition rates (TRs) allowed to be unknown or known with uncertainties. A class of decentralised dynamic output feedback controllers are constructed, and a cyclic-small-gain condition is exploited to dispose the unknown interconnections so that the resultant closed-loop system is stochastically stable and satisfies an H∞ performance. With slack matrices to cope with the nonlinearities incurred by unknown and uncertain TRs in control synthesis, a novel controller design condition is developed in linear matrix inequality formalism. Compared with the existing works, the proposed approach leads to less conservatism. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the new results.

An Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm for Uncertain Portfolio Selection

PubMed Central

Chen, Wei

2014-01-01

Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is used to measure investment return, the uncertain variance of the return is used to measure investment risk, and the entropy is used to measure diversification degree of portfolio. In order to solve the proposed model, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is designed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. PMID:25089292

An artificial bee colony algorithm for uncertain portfolio selection.

PubMed

Chen, Wei

2014-01-01

Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is used to measure investment return, the uncertain variance of the return is used to measure investment risk, and the entropy is used to measure diversification degree of portfolio. In order to solve the proposed model, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is designed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

The larval abdomen of the enigmatic Nannochoristidae (Mecoptera, Insecta).

PubMed

Fraulob, Maximilian; Wipfler, Benjamin; Hünefeld, Frank; Pohl, Hans; Beutel, Rolf G

2012-03-01

External and internal structures of the larval abdomen of Nannochorista are described in detail, with emphasis on the posterior segments. The results are compared with conditions found in other groups of Antliophora, especially the mecopteran subgroups Boreidae and Pistillifera. Like the entire postcephalic body, the larval abdomen of Nannochorista is extremely slender and nearly cylindrical. The anterior segments are largely unmodified. The surface is smooth and lacks any protuberances or prolegs. The term "cloaca" for the posterior membranous pouch of Nannochorista sp. is morphologically unjustified. A list of muscles of segments IX and X is presented. The abdominal musculature was partly homologized following Snodgrass. The muscles of segment X are highly modified. They move the membranous pouch, the anal papillae, and the terminal lobes. The presence of these structures is likely an adaptation to the specific aquatic life style of nannochoristid larvae. The anal papillae are possibly homologous to the 4-lobed terminal attachment apparatus of larvae of Caurinus (Boreidae) and Pistillifera (Panorpidae, Bittacidae, Choristidae) but this is uncertain. The specific condition in both groups, i.e. two retractile papillae with tracheae and Malpighian tubules in Nannochoristidae, and a 4-lobed exposed attachment device in Pistillifera + Boreidae (groundplan) are very likely autapomorphic for both groups, respectively. A slender abdomen with smooth surface is very likely plesiomorphic within Antliophora and Mecopterida. This condition is found in Trichoptera (partim), Nannochoristidae, Siphonaptera, and many basal groups of Diptera. An eruciform or scarabaeiform body shape with a soft, largely unsclerotised cuticle is probably a synapomorphy of Boreidae and Pistillifera. The presence of ventral protuberances resembling prolegs on the anterior segments is an autapomorphy of the latter group. The homology of paired or unpaired terminal appendages of segment X is uncertain. However, the specific condition of paired and 3-segmented appendages with hooks in Nannochoristidae is almost certainly autapomorphic for this family. The protracted opening of the hind gut on the membranous pouch is another potential autapomorphy of Nannochoristidae. Aquatic habits of larvae, also very likely an apomorphic condition, have likely evolved several times independently in Antliophora. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Induction of belief decision trees from data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AbuDahab, Khalil; Xu, Dong-ling; Keane, John

2012-09-01

In this paper, a method for acquiring belief rule-bases by inductive inference from data is described and evaluated. Existing methods extract traditional rules inductively from data, with consequents that are believed to be either 100% true or 100% false. Belief rules can capture uncertain or incomplete knowledge using uncertain belief degrees in consequents. Instead of using singled-value consequents, each belief rule deals with a set of collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive consequents. The proposed method extracts belief rules from data which contain uncertain or incomplete knowledge.

Operational tools to help stakeholders to protect and alert municipalities facing uncertainties and changes in karst flash floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrell Estupina, V.; Raynaud, F.; Bourgeois, N.; Kong-A-Siou, L.; Collet, L.; Haziza, E.; Servat, E.

2015-06-01

Flash floods are often responsible for many deaths and involve many material damages. Regarding Mediterranean karst aquifers, the complexity of connections, between surface and groundwater, as well as weather non-stationarity patterns, increase difficulties in understanding the basins behaviour and thus warning and protecting people. Furthermore, given the recent changes in land use and extreme rainfall events, knowledge of the past floods is no longer sufficient to manage flood risks. Therefore the worst realistic flood that could occur should be considered. Physical and processes-based hydrological models are considered among the best ways to forecast floods under diverse conditions. However, they rarely match with the stakeholders' needs. In fact, the forecasting services, the municipalities, and the civil security have difficulties in running and interpreting data-consuming models in real-time, above all if data are uncertain or non-existent. To face these social and technical difficulties and help stakeholders, this study develops two operational tools derived from these models. These tools aim at planning real-time decisions given little, changing, and uncertain information available, which are: (i) a hydrological graphical tool (abacus) to estimate flood peak discharge from the karst past state and the forecasted but uncertain intense rainfall; (ii) a GIS-based method (MARE) to estimate the potential flooded pathways and areas, accounting for runoff and karst contributions and considering land use changes. Then, outputs of these tools are confronted to past and recent floods and municipalities observations, and the impacts of uncertainties and changes on planning decisions are discussed. The use of these tools on the recent 2014 events demonstrated their reliability and interest for stakeholders. This study was realized on French Mediterranean basins, in close collaboration with the Flood Forecasting Services (SPC Med-Ouest, SCHAPI, municipalities).

Feedback Blunting: Total Sleep Deprivation Impairs Decision Making that Requires Updating Based on Feedback

PubMed Central

Whitney, Paul; Hinson, John M.; Jackson, Melinda L.; Van Dongen, Hans P.A.

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: To better understand the sometimes catastrophic effects of sleep loss on naturalistic decision making, we investigated effects of sleep deprivation on decision making in a reversal learning paradigm requiring acquisition and updating of information based on outcome feedback. Design: Subjects were randomized to a sleep deprivation or control condition, with performance testing at baseline, after 2 nights of total sleep deprivation (or rested control), and following 2 nights of recovery sleep. Subjects performed a decision task involving initial learning of go and no go response sets followed by unannounced reversal of contingencies, requiring use of outcome feedback for decisions. A working memory scanning task and psychomotor vigilance test were also administered. Setting: Six consecutive days and nights in a controlled laboratory environment with continuous behavioral monitoring. Subjects: Twenty-six subjects (22–40 y of age; 10 women). Interventions: Thirteen subjects were randomized to a 62-h total sleep deprivation condition; the others were controls. Results: Unlike controls, sleep deprived subjects had difficulty with initial learning of go and no go stimuli sets and had profound impairment adapting to reversal. Skin conductance responses to outcome feedback were diminished, indicating blunted affective reactions to feedback accompanying sleep deprivation. Working memory scanning performance was not significantly affected by sleep deprivation. And although sleep deprived subjects showed expected attentional lapses, these could not account for impairments in reversal learning decision making. Conclusions: Sleep deprivation is particularly problematic for decision making involving uncertainty and unexpected change. Blunted reactions to feedback while sleep deprived underlie failures to adapt to uncertainty and changing contingencies. Thus, an error may register, but with diminished effect because of reduced affective valence of the feedback or because the feedback is not cognitively bound with the choice. This has important implications for understanding and managing sleep loss-induced cognitive impairment in emergency response, disaster management, military operations, and other dynamic real-world settings with uncertain outcomes and imperfect information. Citation: Whitney P, Hinson JM, Jackson ML, Van Dongen HPA. Feedback blunting: total sleep deprivation impairs decision making that requires updating based on feedback. SLEEP 2015;38(5):745–754. PMID:25515105

Meaning of living with severe chronic obstructive lung disease: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Marx, Gabriella; Nasse, Maximilian; Stanze, Henrikje; Boakye, Sonja Owusu; Nauck, Friedemann; Schneider, Nils

2016-12-08

To explore what it means for patients to live with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as an incurable and constantly progressing disease. Qualitative longitudinal study using narrative and semistructured interviews. This paper presents findings of the initial interviews. Analysis using grounded theory. Lung care clinics and community care in Lower Saxony, Germany. 17 patients with advanced-stage COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) III/IV). Analysis shows that these patients have difficulties accepting their life situation and feel at the mercy of the disease, which could be identified as a core-experienced phenomenon. Over a long period of time, patients have only a vague feeling of being ill, caused by uncertain knowledge, slow progress and doubtful attribution of clinical symptoms of the disease (causal conditions). As an action strategy, patients try to maintain daily routines for as long as possible after diagnosis. Both effective standard and rescue medication, which helps to reduce breathlessness and other symptoms, and the feeling of being faced with one's own responsibility (intervening conditions) support this strategy, whereby patients' own responsibility is too painful to acknowledge. As a consequence, patients try to deny the threat to life for a long period of time. Frequently, they need to experience facing their own limits, often in the form of an acute crisis, to realise their health situation. The experience of the illness is contextualised by a continuous increase in limited mobility and social isolation. In order to help patients to improve disease awareness, to accept their life situation and to improve their reduced quality of life, patients may benefit from the early integration of palliative care (PC), considering its multiprofessional patient-centred and team-centred approach. Psychological support and volunteer work, which are relevant aspects of PC, should be appropriate to address psychosocial needs. More research is needed to evaluate how patients could benefit from early PC. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Pediatric homeopathy: a prospective observational survey based on parent proxy-reports of their children's health-related Quality of Life in six European countries and Brazil.

PubMed

Van Wassenhoven, Michel; Goossens, Maria; Anelli, Marco; Sermeus, Guy; Kupers, Peter; Morgado, Carlos; Martin, Eduardo; Bezerra, Melissa

2014-10-01

Many European citizens regularly consult homeopathic doctors. Especially for children there is very little data available about the reasons they visit a homeopathic doctor. What are the expectations of the parents consulting a Homeopath MD with their child, who are they and last but not least are they satisfied with their initiative? This study including 773 children from six European countries and Brazil is aimed to look at parent-proxy satisfaction with homeopathic treatment prescribed for their children by a homeopathic doctor after a follow-up of two months. The questionnaire was developed from the methodology used in a survey of adults published in 2002. An initial questionnaire included demographic information and questions for assessing health-related Quality of Life (QoL). A follow-up questionnaire collected data on changes in QoL. The demographic characteristics of respondents showed more male children (53.1%) but more female parent-proxies (93.4%). 73.7% of respondents had previously tried conventional treatments; 26.3% non-conventional approaches. Satisfaction with the medical homeopathic consultation was high. Reported differences between baseline and final QoL ondexes are positive for all four studied conditions. It range from 3.206 to 10.188. Considering 7% as a reference value for "minimal clinical difference", this is reached for 2 on 4 conditions (8.473 and 10.188). Changes in complaint limitations visual scales are positive, even if uncertain for skin complaints and influenced parents satisfaction. Conclusions on clinical impact must be cautious. 4.2% of patients experienced side-effects which they attribute to homeopathic treatment. 10.1% of patients reported significant aggravation at the beginning of homeopathic treatment, 19% slight aggravation of symptoms. The satisfaction of parents using a medical homeopathic approach for their children is linked to the perceived competence of the doctor homeopath, the perceived improvement of the main complaint limitations and the completeness of the received information. Copyright © 2014 The Faculty of Homeopathy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient Populations, Clinical Associations, and System Efficiency in Healthcare Delivery System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yazhuo

The efforts to improve health care delivery usually involve studies and analysis of patient populations and healthcare systems. In this dissertation, I present the research conducted in the following areas: identifying patient groups, improving treatments for specific conditions by using statistical as well as data mining techniques, and developing new operation research models to increase system efficiency from the health institutes' perspective. The results provide better understanding of high risk patient groups, more accuracy in detecting disease' correlations and practical scheduling tools that consider uncertain operation durations and real-life constraints.

A Theory of Conditional Information for Probabilistic Inference in Intelligent Systems: 1. Interval of Events Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-06-01

8217tonditional events" as well-defined ob- jects as in De Finetti [14];, Gilio t[15]L When the strength of the rule b-)a is computed in the context of...uncertain outcome (see, e.g., McGee [5]-) or a coherency argument inthe sense ’of De Finetti as employed by Gilio et al [15],([17J1 or Coletti et al. 118...probabil- ity through a scoring characterization, extending De Finetti’s coherency principle. (See also Gilio et al. [17] for additional results

Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling.

PubMed

Bakun, A

1990-01-12

A mechanism exists whereby global greenhouse warning could, by intensifying the alongshore wind stress on the ocean surface, lead to acceleration of coastal upwelling. Evidence from several different regions suggests that the major coastal upwelling systems of the world have been growing in upwelling intensity as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the earth's atmosphere. Thus the cool foggy summer conditions that typify the coastlands of northern California and other similar upwelling regions might, under global warming, become even more pronounced. Effects of enhanced upwelling on the marine ecosystem are uncertain but potentially dramatic.

Current-drive by lower hybrid waves in the presence of energetic alpha-particles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisch, N.J.; Rax, J.M.

1991-10-01

Many experiments have now proved the effectiveness of lower hybrid waves for driving toroidal current in tokamaks. The use of these waves, however, to provide all the current in a reactor is thought to be uncertain because the waves may not penetrate the center of the more energetic reactor plasma, and, if they did, the wave power may be absorbed by alpha particles rather than by electrons. This paper explores the conditions under which lower-hybrid waves might actually drive all the current. 26 refs.

The heterogeneous management of pediatric ankle traumas: A retrospective descriptive study.

PubMed

Voizard, Philippe; Moore, James; Leduc, Stéphane; Nault, Marie-Lyne

2018-06-01

Frequent misdiagnosis of pediatric ankle traumas leads to inappropriate management, which may result in residual pain, instability, slower return to physical activity, and long-term degenerative changes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the consistency of diagnosis, management, and the treatment of acute lateral pediatric ankle trauma in a tertiary care pediatric hospital. The hypothesis was that the initial diagnosis is often incorrect, and the treatment varies considerably amongst orthopedic surgeons.We conducted a retrospective study of all cases of ankle sprains and Salter-Harris one (SH1) fractures referred to our orthopedic surgery service between May and August 2014. Exclusion criteria included ankle fractures other than SH1 types, and cases where treatment was initially undertaken elsewhere before referral to our service. Primary outcome was the difference between initial and final diagnosis.Among 3047 cases reviewed, 31 matched our inclusion criteria. Initial diagnosis was 20 SH1 fractures, 8 acute ankle sprains, and 3 uncertain, with a change in diagnosis for 48.5% at follow-up.Accurate diagnosis can be difficult in pediatric ankle trauma, with case management and specific treatments varying considerably. This study reinforces the need to evaluate the safety of a general treatment algorithm for all lateral ankle trauma with normal radiographs.Level of evidence III.

Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

DOEpatents

Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

2014-03-18

A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

Uncertainty quantification tools for multiphase gas-solid flow simulations using MFIX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, Rodney O.; Passalacqua, Alberto

2016-02-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely studied and used in the scientific community and in the industry. Various models were proposed to solve problems in different areas. However, all models deviate from reality. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) process evaluates the overall uncertainties associated with the prediction of quantities of interest. In particular it studies the propagation of input uncertainties to the outputs of the models so that confidence intervals can be provided for the simulation results. In the present work, a non-intrusive quadrature-based uncertainty quantification (QBUQ) approach is proposed. The probability distribution function (PDF) of the system response can bemore » then reconstructed using extended quadrature method of moments (EQMOM) and extended conditional quadrature method of moments (ECQMOM). The report first explains the theory of QBUQ approach, including methods to generate samples for problems with single or multiple uncertain input parameters, low order statistics, and required number of samples. Then methods for univariate PDF reconstruction (EQMOM) and multivariate PDF reconstruction (ECQMOM) are explained. The implementation of QBUQ approach into the open-source CFD code MFIX is discussed next. At last, QBUQ approach is demonstrated in several applications. The method is first applied to two examples: a developing flow in a channel with uncertain viscosity, and an oblique shock problem with uncertain upstream Mach number. The error in the prediction of the moment response is studied as a function of the number of samples, and the accuracy of the moments required to reconstruct the PDF of the system response is discussed. The QBUQ approach is then demonstrated by considering a bubbling fluidized bed as example application. The mean particle size is assumed to be the uncertain input parameter. The system is simulated with a standard two-fluid model with kinetic theory closures for the particulate phase implemented into MFIX. The effect of uncertainty on the disperse-phase volume fraction, on the phase velocities and on the pressure drop inside the fluidized bed are examined, and the reconstructed PDFs are provided for the three quantities studied. Then the approach is applied to a bubbling fluidized bed with two uncertain parameters, particle-particle and particle-wall restitution coefficients. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities and gas pressure are provided. The PDFs of the response are reconstructed using EQMOM with appropriate kernel density functions. The simulation results are compared to experimental data provided by the 2013 NETL small-scale challenge problem. Lastly, the proposed procedure is demonstrated by considering a riser of a circulating fluidized bed as an example application. The mean particle size is considered to be the uncertain input parameter. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities, and granular temperature are provided. Mean values and confidence intervals of the quantities of interest are compared to the experiment results. The univariate and bivariate PDF reconstructions of the system response are performed using EQMOM and ECQMOM.« less

Robust control for uncertain structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Joel; Athans, Michael

1991-01-01

Viewgraphs on robust control for uncertain structures are presented. Topics covered include: robust linear quadratic regulator (RLQR) formulas; mismatched LQR design; RLQR design; interpretations of RLQR design; disturbance rejection; and performance comparisons: RLQR vs. mismatched LQR.

Cutting Force Predication Based on Integration of Symmetric Fuzzy Number and Finite Element Method

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhanli; Hu, Yanjuan; Wang, Yao; Dong, Chao; Pang, Zaixiang

2014-01-01

In the process of turning, pointing at the uncertain phenomenon of cutting which is caused by the disturbance of random factors, for determining the uncertain scope of cutting force, the integrated symmetric fuzzy number and the finite element method (FEM) are used in the prediction of cutting force. The method used symmetric fuzzy number to establish fuzzy function between cutting force and three factors and obtained the uncertain interval of cutting force by linear programming. At the same time, the change curve of cutting force with time was directly simulated by using thermal-mechanical coupling FEM; also the nonuniform stress field and temperature distribution of workpiece, tool, and chip under the action of thermal-mechanical coupling were simulated. The experimental result shows that the method is effective for the uncertain prediction of cutting force. PMID:24790556

The role of uncertain self-esteem in self-handicapping.

PubMed

Harris, R N; Snyder, C R

1986-08-01

In this article, the hypothesis that some individuals confronted with an intellectual evaluation use a lack of preparation as a "self-handicapping" strategy (Jones & Berglas, 1978) was studied. Sex and both level and certainty of self-esteem were examined in regard to the self-handicapping strategy of lack of effort. Subjects were 54 men and 54 women, certain and uncertain, high and low self-esteem college students, who believed that the experiment was designed to update local norms for a nonverbal test of intellectual ability. After subjects' level of state anxiety was assessed, they were instructed in the benefits of practicing for the evaluation. Subsequently, subjects' state anxiety and preparatory efforts (the primary dependent variables) were measured. Subjects' practice, self-protective attributions, and related affect supported a self-handicapping interpretation for uncertain males but not for uncertain females.

Angiogenic factors and pregnant woman with new onset seizures.

PubMed

Quant, Hayley; Arden, Deborah; Takoudes, Tamara; Rana, Sarosh

2012-01-01

In patients with new onset seizures during pregnancy, it can be challenging to differentiate between eclampsia and other etiologies. Soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase (sFlt1) is an antiangiogenic protein that is elevated in preeclampsia and eclampsia. A multiparous woman presented at 22 weeks gestation with seizures. The initial presentation was highly suspicious for eclampsia, but blood pressure and laboratory data were equivocal. Further investigation suggested primary seizure disorder. Serum sFlt1 was normal for gestational age, supporting the exclusion of eclampsia. History, physical exam, and traditional laboratory data are the mainstays of eclampsia diagnosis; however, sFlt1 may help clinicians when the diagnosis is uncertain at preterm gestational ages.

What motivates researchers in times of economic uncertainty.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bucher, G. C.; Reece, J. E.

1972-01-01

Results of a study initiated late in 1970 to obtain both a measure of on-and-around-the-job factors which were 'motivating' to engineers and scientists, and to obtain an indication of how the relative importance of these factors changes as a result of the uncertain economic environment. A questionnaire, 'The Jackman Job Satisfaction Schedule,' was used to satisfy the needs of the study. It is concluded that managers can enhance the feeling of motivation by making individual job assignments interesting and challenging, by formulating significant milestones and end points into job content, and by assigning ample rewards with corresponding responsibility. In times of economic uncertainty increased emphasis should be given to security-related aspects of employment.

Physicians' Religious Topic Avoidance during Clinical Interactions.

PubMed

Villagran, Melinda M; MacArthur, Brenda L; Lee, Lauren E; Ledford, Christy J W; Canzona, Mollie R

2017-05-08

Religious and spiritual (R/S) conversations at the end-of-life function to help patients and their families find comfort in difficult circumstances. Physicians who feel uncertain about how to discuss topics related to religious beliefs may seek to avoid R/S conversations with their patients. This study utilized a two-group objective structured clinical examination with a standardized patient to explore differences in physicians' use of R/S topic avoidance tactics during a clinical interaction. Results indicated that physicians used more topic avoidance tactics in response to patients' R/S inquiries than patients' R/S disclosures; however, the use of topic avoidance tactics did not eliminate the need to engage in patient-initiated R/S interactions.

Moving the science data quality dialogue forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Erin; Meyer, Carol B.; Lenhardt, W. Christopher

2012-05-01

Federation of Earth Science Information Partners Summer 2011 Meeting; Santa Fe, New Mexico, 12-15 July 2011 Scientific data quality is important to scientists, archivists, decision makers, and the public. Uncertain quality costs valuable research dollars and has impacts beyond the initial science. The Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) is a consortium of Earth science data and technology professionals spanning the government (NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Science Foundation), academia, and private sectors (both commercial and nonprofit). The organization is dedicated to transforming research data and information into useful and usable data and information products for decision makers, policy makers, and the public.

Physicians’ Religious Topic Avoidance during Clinical Interactions

PubMed Central

Villagran, Melinda M.; MacArthur, Brenda L.; Lee, Lauren E.; Ledford, Christy J. W.; Canzona, Mollie R.

2017-01-01

Religious and spiritual (R/S) conversations at the end-of-life function to help patients and their families find comfort in difficult circumstances. Physicians who feel uncertain about how to discuss topics related to religious beliefs may seek to avoid R/S conversations with their patients. This study utilized a two-group objective structured clinical examination with a standardized patient to explore differences in physicians’ use of R/S topic avoidance tactics during a clinical interaction. Results indicated that physicians used more topic avoidance tactics in response to patients’ R/S inquiries than patients’ R/S disclosures; however, the use of topic avoidance tactics did not eliminate the need to engage in patient-initiated R/S interactions. PMID:28481290

Pulmonary Paragonimiasis: The Detection of a Worm Migration Track as a Diagnostic Clue for Uncertain Eosinophilic Pleural Effusion.

PubMed

Akaba, Tomohiro; Takeyama, Kiyoshi; Toriyama, Midori; Kubo, Ayako; Mizobuchi, Rie; Yamada, Takeshi; Tagaya, Etsuko; Kondo, Mitsuko; Sakai, Shuji; Tamaoki, Jun

2016-01-01

A 38-year-old woman with sustained right chest pain was referred to our hospital. She showed pleural effusion and peripheral blood eosinophilia. Thoracentesis revealed eosinophilic pleural effusion in which the smear, culture and cytological examinations were all negative. Although she had no notable dietary history, chest CT revealed linear opacities, which suggested the migration tracks of paragonimiasis. The diagnosis was confirmed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, which showed elevated Paragonimus westermani and Paragonimus miyazakii antibody levels. After the initiation of praziquantel therapy, all clinical findings were promptly improved. The detection of a migration track may therefore be useful in the diagnosis of paragonimiasis.

Herpes simplex virus type 2 recurrent meningitis (Mollaret's meningitis): a consideration for the recurrent pathogenesis.

PubMed

Sato, Rumi; Ayabe, Mitsuyoshi; Shoji, Hiroshi; Ichiyama, Takashi; Saito, Yumiko; Hondo, Ryo; Eizuru, Yoshito

2005-11-01

We report a 44-year-old Japanese woman with herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 2 recurrent meningitis (Mollaret's meningitis). The diagnosis was confirmed by nested polymerase chain reaction in her cerebrospinal fluid, but the patient's conventional HSV antibodies by complement fixation, neutralizing test or enzyme immunoassay showed low titres with low lymphoproliferative response. Several similar cases are discussed. Although the reason for the recurrent pathogenesis is uncertain, our report suggests that the low immune response including immune evasion may be involved in the pathogenesis of HSV type 2 recurrent meningitis. For this patient, long-term suppressive and patient-initiated therapies were conducted to prevent the recurrence of meningitis.

Opinion & Special Articles: A guide from fellowship to faculty

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The role of the physician scientist in biomedical research is increasingly threatened. Despite a clear role in clinical advances in translational medicine, the percentage of physicians engaged in research has steadily declined. Several programmatic efforts have been initiated to address this problem by providing time and financial resources to the motivated resident or fellow. However, this decline in physician scientists is due not only to a lack of time and resources but also a reflection of the uncertain path in moving from residency or postdoctoral training toward junior faculty. This article is a practical guide to the milestones and barriers to successful faculty achievement after residency or fellowship training. PMID:23033506