Decentralized Adaptive Control of Systems with Uncertain Interconnections, Plant-Model Mismatch and Actuator Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patre, Parag; Joshi, Suresh M.

2011-01-01

Decentralized adaptive control is considered for systems consisting of multiple interconnected subsystems. It is assumed that each subsystem s parameters are uncertain and the interconnection parameters are not known. In addition, mismatch can exist between each subsystem and its reference model. A strictly decentralized adaptive control scheme is developed, wherein each subsystem has access only to its own state but has the knowledge of all reference model states. The mismatch is estimated online for each subsystem and the mismatch estimates are used to adaptively modify the corresponding reference models. The adaptive control scheme is extended to the case with actuator failures in addition to mismatch.

Adaptive identifier for uncertain complex nonlinear systems based on continuous neural networks.

PubMed

Alfaro-Ponce, Mariel; Cruz, Amadeo Argüelles; Chairez, Isaac

2014-03-01

This paper presents the design of a complex-valued differential neural network identifier for uncertain nonlinear systems defined in the complex domain. This design includes the construction of an adaptive algorithm to adjust the parameters included in the identifier. The algorithm is obtained based on a special class of controlled Lyapunov functions. The quality of the identification process is characterized using the practical stability framework. Indeed, the region where the identification error converges is derived by the same Lyapunov method. This zone is defined by the power of uncertainties and perturbations affecting the complex-valued uncertain dynamics. Moreover, this convergence zone is reduced to its lowest possible value using ideas related to the so-called ellipsoid methodology. Two simple but informative numerical examples are developed to show how the identifier proposed in this paper can be used to approximate uncertain nonlinear systems valued in the complex domain.

Cluster synchronization transmission of different external signals in discrete uncertain network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chengren; Lü, Ling; Chen, Liansong; Hong, Yixuan; Zhou, Shuang; Yang, Yiming

2018-07-01

We research cluster synchronization transmissions of different external signals in discrete uncertain network. Based on the Lyapunov theorem, the network controller and the identification law of uncertain adjustment parameter are designed, and they are efficiently used to achieve the cluster synchronization and the identification of uncertain adjustment parameter. In our technical scheme, the network nodes in each cluster and the transmitted external signal can be different, and they allow the presence of uncertain parameters in the network. Especially, we are free to choose the clustering topologies, the cluster number and the node number in each cluster.

Robust decentralised stabilisation of uncertain large-scale interconnected nonlinear descriptor systems via proportional plus derivative feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jian; Zhang, Qingling; Ren, Junchao; Zhang, Yanhao

2017-10-01

This paper studies the problem of robust stability and stabilisation for uncertain large-scale interconnected nonlinear descriptor systems via proportional plus derivative state feedback or proportional plus derivative output feedback. The basic idea of this work is to use the well-known differential mean value theorem to deal with the nonlinear model such that the considered nonlinear descriptor systems can be transformed into linear parameter varying systems. By using a parameter-dependent Lyapunov function, a decentralised proportional plus derivative state feedback controller and decentralised proportional plus derivative output feedback controller are designed, respectively such that the closed-loop system is quadratically normal and quadratically stable. Finally, a hypersonic vehicle practical simulation example and numerical example are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained in this paper.

Switching State-Feedback LPV Control with Uncertain Scheduling Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Tianyi; Al-Jiboory, Ali Khudhair; Swei, Sean Shan-Min; Zhu, Guoming G.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a new method to design Robust Switching State-Feedback Gain-Scheduling (RSSFGS) controllers for Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) systems with uncertain scheduling parameters. The domain of scheduling parameters are divided into several overlapped subregions to undergo hysteresis switching among a family of simultaneously designed LPV controllers over the corresponding subregion with the guaranteed H-infinity performance. The synthesis conditions are given in terms of Parameterized Linear Matrix Inequalities that guarantee both stability and performance at each subregion and associated switching surfaces. The switching stability is ensured by descent parameter-dependent Lyapunov function on switching surfaces. By solving the optimization problem, RSSFGS controller can be obtained for each subregion. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach over the non-switching controllers.

Robust stabilization of the Space Station in the presence of inertia matrix uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Liu, Qiang; Sunkel, John

1993-01-01

This paper presents a robust H-infinity full-state feedback control synthesis method for uncertain systems with D11 not equal to 0. The method is applied to the robust stabilization problem of the Space Station in the face of inertia matrix uncertainty. The control design objective is to find a robust controller that yields the largest stable hypercube in uncertain parameter space, while satisfying the nominal performance requirements. The significance of employing an uncertain plant model with D11 not equal 0 is demonstrated.

Adaptive control for a class of nonlinear complex dynamical systems with uncertain complex parameters and perturbations

PubMed Central

Liu, Jian; Liu, Kexin; Liu, Shutang

2017-01-01

In this paper, adaptive control is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new control scheme for a class of n-dimensional time-dependent strict-feedback complex-variable chaotic (hyperchaotic) systems (CVCSs) in the presence of uncertain complex parameters and perturbations, which has not been previously reported in the literature. In detail, we have developed a unified framework for designing the adaptive complex scalar controller to ensure this type of CVCSs asymptotically stable and for selecting complex update laws to estimate unknown complex parameters. In particular, combining Lyapunov functions dependent on complex-valued vectors and back-stepping technique, sufficient criteria on stabilization of CVCSs are derived in the sense of Wirtinger calculus in complex space. Finally, numerical simulation is presented to validate our theoretical results. PMID:28467431

Adaptive control for a class of nonlinear complex dynamical systems with uncertain complex parameters and perturbations.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Liu, Kexin; Liu, Shutang

2017-01-01

In this paper, adaptive control is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new control scheme for a class of n-dimensional time-dependent strict-feedback complex-variable chaotic (hyperchaotic) systems (CVCSs) in the presence of uncertain complex parameters and perturbations, which has not been previously reported in the literature. In detail, we have developed a unified framework for designing the adaptive complex scalar controller to ensure this type of CVCSs asymptotically stable and for selecting complex update laws to estimate unknown complex parameters. In particular, combining Lyapunov functions dependent on complex-valued vectors and back-stepping technique, sufficient criteria on stabilization of CVCSs are derived in the sense of Wirtinger calculus in complex space. Finally, numerical simulation is presented to validate our theoretical results.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

PubMed

Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

2016-12-28

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

DOE PAGES

Navarro Jimenez, M.; Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.

2016-12-23

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes thatmore » the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. Here, a sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.« less

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro Jimenez, M.; Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.

2016-12-01

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Adaptive fuzzy predictive sliding control of uncertain nonlinear systems with bound-known input delay.

PubMed

Khazaee, Mostafa; Markazi, Amir H D; Omidi, Ehsan

2015-11-01

In this paper, a new Adaptive Fuzzy Predictive Sliding Mode Control (AFP-SMC) is presented for nonlinear systems with uncertain dynamics and unknown input delay. The control unit consists of a fuzzy inference system to approximate the ideal linearization control, together with a switching strategy to compensate for the estimation errors. Also, an adaptive fuzzy predictor is used to estimate the future values of the system states to compensate for the time delay. The adaptation laws are used to tune the controller and predictor parameters, which guarantee the stability based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional. To evaluate the method effectiveness, the simulation and experiment on an overhead crane system are presented. According to the obtained results, AFP-SMC can effectively control the uncertain nonlinear systems, subject to input delays of known bound. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability, Risk and Cost Trade-Offs for Composite Designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Singhal, Surendra N.; Chamis, Christos C.

1996-01-01

Risk and cost trade-offs have been simulated using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally-occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and loading conditions. The probability density function of first buckling load for a set of uncertain variables is computed. The probabilistic sensitivity factors of uncertain variables to the first buckling load is calculated. The reliability-based cost for a composite fuselage panel is defined and minimized with respect to requisite design parameters. The optimization is achieved by solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations whose coefficients are functions of probabilistic sensitivity factors. With optimum design parameters such as the mean and coefficient of variation (representing range of scatter) of uncertain variables, the most efficient and economical manufacturing procedure can be selected. In this paper, optimum values of the requisite design parameters for a predetermined cost due to failure occurrence are computationally determined. The results for the fuselage panel analysis show that the higher the cost due to failure occurrence, the smaller the optimum coefficient of variation of fiber modulus (design parameter) in longitudinal direction.

Robust linear quadratic designs with respect to parameter uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Joel; Athans, Michael

1992-01-01

The authors derive a linear quadratic regulator (LQR) which is robust to parametric uncertainty by using the overbounding method of I. R. Petersen and C. V. Hollot (1986). The resulting controller is determined from the solution of a single modified Riccati equation. It is shown that, when applied to a structural system, the controller gains add robustness by minimizing the potential energy of uncertain stiffness elements, and minimizing the rate of dissipation of energy through uncertain damping elements. A worst-case disturbance in the direction of the uncertainty is also considered. It is proved that performance robustness has been increased with the robust LQR when compared to a mismatched LQR design where the controller is designed on the nominal system, but applied to the actual uncertain system.

A game theoretic controller for a linear time-invariant system with parameter uncertainty and its application to the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhee, Ihnseok; Speyer, Jason L.

1990-01-01

A game theoretic controller is developed for a linear time-invariant system with parameter uncertainties in system and input matrices. The input-output decomposition modeling for the plant uncertainty is adopted. The uncertain dynamic system is represented as an internal feedback loop in which the system is assumed forced by fictitious disturbance caused by the parameter uncertainty. By considering the input and the fictitious disturbance as two noncooperative players, a differential game problem is constructed. It is shown that the resulting time invariant controller stabilizes the uncertain system for a prescribed uncertainty bound. This game theoretic controller is applied to the momentum management and attitude control of the Space Station in the presence of uncertainties in the moments of inertia. Inclusion of the external disturbance torque to the design procedure results in a dynamical feedback controller which consists of conventional PID control and cyclic disturbance rejection filter. It is shown that the game theoretic design, comparing to the LQR design or pole placement design, improves the stability robustness with respect to inertia variations.

Probabilistic Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Single Input Single Output Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brett A.; Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.

2005-01-01

The current standards for handling uncertainty in control systems use interval bounds for definition of the uncertain parameters. This approach gives no information about the likelihood of system performance, but simply gives the response bounds. When used in design, current methods of m-analysis and can lead to overly conservative controller design. With these methods, worst case conditions are weighted equally with the most likely conditions. This research explores a unique approach for probabilistic analysis of control systems. Current reliability methods are examined showing the strong areas of each in handling probability. A hybrid method is developed using these reliability tools for efficiently propagating probabilistic uncertainty through classical control analysis problems. The method developed is applied to classical response analysis as well as analysis methods that explore the effects of the uncertain parameters on stability and performance metrics. The benefits of using this hybrid approach for calculating the mean and variance of responses cumulative distribution functions are shown. Results of the probabilistic analysis of a missile pitch control system, and a non-collocated mass spring system, show the added information provided by this hybrid analysis.

Optimal Regulation of Structural Systems with Uncertain Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-02-02

been addressed, in part, by Statistical Energy Analysis . Moti- vated by a concern with high frequency vibration and acoustical- structural...Parameter Systems," AFOSR-TR-79-0753 (May, 1979). 25. R. H. Lyon, Statistical Energy Analysis of Dynamical Systems: Theory and Applications, (M.I.T...Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1975). 26. E. E. Ungar, " Statistical Energy Analysis of Vibrating Systems," Trans. ASME, J. Eng. Ind. 89, 626 (1967). 139 27

Parameter identification for structural dynamics based on interval analysis algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chen; Lu, Zixing; Yang, Zhenyu; Liang, Ke

2018-04-01

A parameter identification method using interval analysis algorithm for structural dynamics is presented in this paper. The proposed uncertain identification method is investigated by using central difference method and ARMA system. With the help of the fixed memory least square method and matrix inverse lemma, a set-membership identification technology is applied to obtain the best estimation of the identified parameters in a tight and accurate region. To overcome the lack of insufficient statistical description of the uncertain parameters, this paper treats uncertainties as non-probabilistic intervals. As long as we know the bounds of uncertainties, this algorithm can obtain not only the center estimations of parameters, but also the bounds of errors. To improve the efficiency of the proposed method, a time-saving algorithm is presented by recursive formula. At last, to verify the accuracy of the proposed method, two numerical examples are applied and evaluated by three identification criteria respectively.

The Absolute Stability Analysis in Fuzzy Control Systems with Parametric Uncertainties and Reference Inputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bing-Fei; Ma, Li-Shan; Perng, Jau-Woei

This study analyzes the absolute stability in P and PD type fuzzy logic control systems with both certain and uncertain linear plants. Stability analysis includes the reference input, actuator gain and interval plant parameters. For certain linear plants, the stability (i.e. the stable equilibriums of error) in P and PD types is analyzed with the Popov or linearization methods under various reference inputs and actuator gains. The steady state errors of fuzzy control systems are also addressed in the parameter plane. The parametric robust Popov criterion for parametric absolute stability based on Lur'e systems is also applied to the stability analysis of P type fuzzy control systems with uncertain plants. The PD type fuzzy logic controller in our approach is a single-input fuzzy logic controller and is transformed into the P type for analysis. In our work, the absolute stability analysis of fuzzy control systems is given with respect to a non-zero reference input and an uncertain linear plant with the parametric robust Popov criterion unlike previous works. Moreover, a fuzzy current controlled RC circuit is designed with PSPICE models. Both numerical and PSPICE simulations are provided to verify the analytical results. Furthermore, the oscillation mechanism in fuzzy control systems is specified with various equilibrium points of view in the simulation example. Finally, the comparisons are also given to show the effectiveness of the analysis method.

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.

2014-02-01

This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the modelmore » response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)« less

Stability margin of linear systems with parameters described by fuzzy numbers.

PubMed

Husek, Petr

2011-10-01

This paper deals with the linear systems with uncertain parameters described by fuzzy numbers. The problem of determining the stability margin of those systems with linear affine dependence of the coefficients of a characteristic polynomial on system parameters is studied. Fuzzy numbers describing the system parameters are allowed to be characterized by arbitrary nonsymmetric membership functions. An elegant solution, graphical in nature, based on generalization of the Tsypkin-Polyak plot is presented. The advantage of the presented approach over the classical robust concept is demonstrated on a control of the Fiat Dedra engine model and a control of the quarter car suspension model.

Designing a capacitated multi-configuration logistics network under disturbances and parameter uncertainty: a real-world case of a drug supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shishebori, Davood; Babadi, Abolghasem Yousefi

2018-03-01

This study investigates the reliable multi-configuration capacitated logistics network design problem (RMCLNDP) under system disturbances, which relates to locating facilities, establishing transportation links, and also allocating their limited capacities to the customers conducive to provide their demand on the minimum expected total cost (including locating costs, link constructing costs, and also expected costs in normal and disturbance conditions). In addition, two types of risks are considered; (I) uncertain environment, (II) system disturbances. A two-level mathematical model is proposed for formulating of the mentioned problem. Also, because of the uncertain parameters of the model, an efficacious possibilistic robust optimization approach is utilized. To evaluate the model, a drug supply chain design (SCN) is studied. Finally, an extensive sensitivity analysis was done on the critical parameters. The obtained results show that the efficiency of the proposed approach is suitable and is worthwhile for analyzing the real practical problems.

Application of control theory to dynamic systems simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Auslander, D. M.; Spear, R. C.; Young, G. E.

1982-01-01

The application of control theory is applied to dynamic systems simulation. Theory and methodology applicable to controlled ecological life support systems are considered. Spatial effects on system stability, design of control systems with uncertain parameters, and an interactive computing language (PARASOL-II) designed for dynamic system simulation, report quality graphics, data acquisition, and simple real time control are discussed.

Adaptive control of nonlinear uncertain active suspension systems with prescribed performance.

PubMed

Huang, Yingbo; Na, Jing; Wu, Xing; Liu, Xiaoqin; Guo, Yu

2015-01-01

This paper proposes adaptive control designs for vehicle active suspension systems with unknown nonlinear dynamics (e.g., nonlinear spring and piece-wise linear damper dynamics). An adaptive control is first proposed to stabilize the vertical vehicle displacement and thus to improve the ride comfort and to guarantee other suspension requirements (e.g., road holding and suspension space limitation) concerning the vehicle safety and mechanical constraints. An augmented neural network is developed to online compensate for the unknown nonlinearities, and a novel adaptive law is developed to estimate both NN weights and uncertain model parameters (e.g., sprung mass), where the parameter estimation error is used as a leakage term superimposed on the classical adaptations. To further improve the control performance and simplify the parameter tuning, a prescribed performance function (PPF) characterizing the error convergence rate, maximum overshoot and steady-state error is used to propose another adaptive control. The stability for the closed-loop system is proved and particular performance requirements are analyzed. Simulations are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control schemes. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-delayed chameleon: Analysis, synchronization and FPGA implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, Karthikeyan; Jafari, Sajad; Laarem, Guessas

2017-12-01

In this paper we report a time-delayed chameleon-like chaotic system which can belong to different families of chaotic attractors depending on the choices of parameters. Such a characteristic of self-excited and hidden chaotic flows in a simple 3D system with time delay has not been reported earlier. Dynamic analysis of the proposed time-delayed systems are analysed in time-delay space and parameter space. A novel adaptive modified functional projective lag synchronization algorithm is derived for synchronizing identical time-delayed chameleon systems with uncertain parameters. The proposed time-delayed systems and the synchronization algorithm with controllers and parameter estimates are then implemented in FPGA using hardware-software co-simulation and the results are presented.

Long-time uncertainty propagation using generalized polynomial chaos and flow map composition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luchtenburg, Dirk M., E-mail: dluchten@cooper.edu; Brunton, Steven L.; Rowley, Clarence W.

2014-10-01

We present an efficient and accurate method for long-time uncertainty propagation in dynamical systems. Uncertain initial conditions and parameters are both addressed. The method approximates the intermediate short-time flow maps by spectral polynomial bases, as in the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) method, and uses flow map composition to construct the long-time flow map. In contrast to the gPC method, this approach has spectral error convergence for both short and long integration times. The short-time flow map is characterized by small stretching and folding of the associated trajectories and hence can be well represented by a relatively low-degree basis. The compositionmore » of these low-degree polynomial bases then accurately describes the uncertainty behavior for long integration times. The key to the method is that the degree of the resulting polynomial approximation increases exponentially in the number of time intervals, while the number of polynomial coefficients either remains constant (for an autonomous system) or increases linearly in the number of time intervals (for a non-autonomous system). The findings are illustrated on several numerical examples including a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) with an uncertain initial condition, a linear ODE with an uncertain model parameter, and a two-dimensional, non-autonomous double gyre flow.« less

Strict Constraint Feasibility in Analysis and Design of Uncertain Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2006-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty, where hard inequality constraints are present. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations prescribed by the uncertainty model. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles. These models make it possible to consider sets of parameters having comparable as well as dissimilar levels of uncertainty. Two alternative formulations for hyper-rectangular sets are proposed, one based on a transformation of variables and another based on an infinity norm approach. The suite of tools developed enable us to determine if the satisfaction of hard constraints is feasible by identifying critical combinations of uncertain parameters. Since this practice is performed without sampling or partitioning the parameter space, the resulting assessments of robustness are analytically verifiable. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness of competing design alternatives, the approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness characteristics are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the solution methods only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, the tools developed are applicable to a broad range of problems in several disciplines.

Uncertainty Quantification in Aeroelasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beran, Philip; Stanford, Bret; Schrock, Christopher

2017-01-01

Physical interactions between a fluid and structure, potentially manifested as self-sustained or divergent oscillations, can be sensitive to many parameters whose values are uncertain. Of interest here are aircraft aeroelastic interactions, which must be accounted for in aircraft certification and design. Deterministic prediction of these aeroelastic behaviors can be difficult owing to physical and computational complexity. New challenges are introduced when physical parameters and elements of the modeling process are uncertain. By viewing aeroelasticity through a nondeterministic prism, where key quantities are assumed stochastic, one may gain insights into how to reduce system uncertainty, increase system robustness, and maintain aeroelastic safety. This article reviews uncertainty quantification in aeroelasticity using traditional analytical techniques not reliant on computational fluid dynamics; compares and contrasts this work with emerging methods based on computational fluid dynamics, which target richer physics; and reviews the state of the art in aeroelastic optimization under uncertainty. Barriers to continued progress, for example, the so-called curse of dimensionality, are discussed.

Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model based robust dissipative control for uncertain flexible spacecraft with saturated time-delay input.

PubMed

Xu, Shidong; Sun, Guanghui; Sun, Weichao

2017-01-01

In this paper, the problem of robust dissipative control is investigated for uncertain flexible spacecraft based on Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model with saturated time-delay input. Different from most existing strategies, T-S fuzzy approximation approach is used to model the nonlinear dynamics of flexible spacecraft. Simultaneously, the physical constraints of system, like input delay, input saturation, and parameter uncertainties, are also taken care of in the fuzzy model. By employing Lyapunov-Krasovskii method and convex optimization technique, a novel robust controller is proposed to implement rest-to-rest attitude maneuver for flexible spacecraft, and the guaranteed dissipative performance enables the uncertain closed-loop system to reject the influence of elastic vibrations and external disturbances. Finally, an illustrative design example integrated with simulation results are provided to confirm the applicability and merits of the developed control strategy. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A global parallel model based design of experiments method to minimize model output uncertainty.

PubMed

Bazil, Jason N; Buzzard, Gregory T; Rundell, Ann E

2012-03-01

Model-based experiment design specifies the data to be collected that will most effectively characterize the biological system under study. Existing model-based design of experiment algorithms have primarily relied on Fisher Information Matrix-based methods to choose the best experiment in a sequential manner. However, these are largely local methods that require an initial estimate of the parameter values, which are often highly uncertain, particularly when data is limited. In this paper, we provide an approach to specify an informative sequence of multiple design points (parallel design) that will constrain the dynamical uncertainty of the biological system responses to within experimentally detectable limits as specified by the estimated experimental noise. The method is based upon computationally efficient sparse grids and requires only a bounded uncertain parameter space; it does not rely upon initial parameter estimates. The design sequence emerges through the use of scenario trees with experimental design points chosen to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted dynamics of the measurable responses of the system. The algorithm was illustrated herein using a T cell activation model for three problems that ranged in dimension from 2D to 19D. The results demonstrate that it is possible to extract useful information from a mathematical model where traditional model-based design of experiments approaches most certainly fail. The experiments designed via this method fully constrain the model output dynamics to within experimentally resolvable limits. The method is effective for highly uncertain biological systems characterized by deterministic mathematical models with limited data sets. Also, it is highly modular and can be modified to include a variety of methodologies such as input design and model discrimination.

Orbit control of a stratospheric satellite with parameter uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ming; Huo, Wei

2016-12-01

When a stratospheric satellite travels by prevailing winds in the stratosphere, its cross-track displacement needs to be controlled to keep a constant latitude orbital flight. To design the orbit control system, a 6 degree-of-freedom (DOF) model of the satellite is established based on the second Lagrangian formulation, it is proven that the input/output feedback linearization theory cannot be directly implemented for the orbit control with this model, thus three subsystem models are deduced from the 6-DOF model to develop a sequential nonlinear control strategy. The control strategy includes an adaptive controller for the balloon-tether subsystem with uncertain balloon parameters, a PD controller based on feedback linearization for the tether-sail subsystem, and a sliding mode controller for the sail-rudder subsystem with uncertain sail parameters. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed control strategy is robust to uncertainties and satisfies high precision requirements for the orbit flight of the satellite.

High-order sliding-mode control for blood glucose regulation in the presence of uncertain dynamics.

PubMed

Hernández, Ana Gabriela Gallardo; Fridman, Leonid; Leder, Ron; Andrade, Sergio Islas; Monsalve, Cristina Revilla; Shtessel, Yuri; Levant, Arie

2011-01-01

The success of blood glucose automatic regulation depends on the robustness of the control algorithm used. It is a difficult task to perform due to the complexity of the glucose-insulin regulation system. The variety of model existing reflects the great amount of phenomena involved in the process, and the inter-patient variability of the parameters represent another challenge. In this research a High-Order Sliding-Mode Control is proposed. It is applied to two well known models, Bergman Minimal Model, and Sorensen Model, to test its robustness with respect to uncertain dynamics, and patients' parameter variability. The controller designed based on the simulations is tested with the specific Bergman Minimal Model of a diabetic patient whose parameters were identified from an in vivo assay. To minimize the insulin infusion rate, and avoid the hypoglycemia risk, the glucose target is a dynamical profile.

Output Feedback-Based Boundary Control of Uncertain Coupled Semilinear Parabolic PDE Using Neurodynamic Programming.

PubMed

Talaei, Behzad; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Singler, John

2018-04-01

In this paper, neurodynamic programming-based output feedback boundary control of distributed parameter systems governed by uncertain coupled semilinear parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under Neumann or Dirichlet boundary control conditions is introduced. First, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is formulated in the original PDE domain and the optimal control policy is derived using the value functional as the solution of the HJB equation. Subsequently, a novel observer is developed to estimate the system states given the uncertain nonlinearity in PDE dynamics and measured outputs. Consequently, the suboptimal boundary control policy is obtained by forward-in-time estimation of the value functional using a neural network (NN)-based online approximator and estimated state vector obtained from the NN observer. Novel adaptive tuning laws in continuous time are proposed for learning the value functional online to satisfy the HJB equation along system trajectories while ensuring the closed-loop stability. Local uniformly ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system is verified by using Lyapunov theory. The performance of the proposed controller is verified via simulation on an unstable coupled diffusion reaction process.

Stability of uncertain systems. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, G. L.

1971-01-01

The asymptotic properties of feedback systems are discussed, containing uncertain parameters and subjected to stochastic perturbations. The approach is functional analytic in flavor and thereby avoids the use of Markov techniques and auxiliary Lyapunov functionals characteristic of the existing work in this area. The results are given for the probability distributions of the accessible signals in the system and are proved using the Prohorov theory of the convergence of measures. For general nonlinear systems, a result similar to the small loop-gain theorem of deterministic stability theory is given. Boundedness is a property of the induced distributions of the signals and not the usual notion of boundedness in norm. For the special class of feedback systems formed by the cascade of a white noise, a sector nonlinearity and convolution operator conditions are given to insure the total boundedness of the overall feedback system.

Systems and Methods for Parameter Dependent Riccati Equation Approaches to Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kilsoo (Inventor); Yucelen, Tansel (Inventor); Calise, Anthony J. (Inventor)

2015-01-01

Systems and methods for adaptive control are disclosed. The systems and methods can control uncertain dynamic systems. The control system can comprise a controller that employs a parameter dependent Riccati equation. The controller can produce a response that causes the state of the system to remain bounded. The control system can control both minimum phase and non-minimum phase systems. The control system can augment an existing, non-adaptive control design without modifying the gains employed in that design. The control system can also avoid the use of high gains in both the observer design and the adaptive control law.

Control of linear uncertain systems utilizing mismatched state observers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, B.

1972-01-01

The control of linear continuous dynamical systems is investigated as a problem of limited state feedback control. The equations which describe the structure of an observer are developed constrained to time-invarient systems. The optimal control problem is formulated, accounting for the uncertainty in the design parameters. Expressions for bounds on closed loop stability are also developed. The results indicate that very little uncertainty may be tolerated before divergence occurs in the recursive computation algorithms, and the derived stability bound yields extremely conservative estimates of regions of allowable parameter variations.

Flight control application of new stability robustness bounds for linear uncertain systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yedavalli, Rama K.

1993-01-01

This paper addresses the issue of obtaining bounds on the real parameter perturbations of a linear state-space model for robust stability. Based on Kronecker algebra, new, easily computable sufficient bounds are derived that are much less conservative than the existing bounds since the technique is meant for only real parameter perturbations (in contrast to specializing complex variation case to real parameter case). The proposed theory is illustrated with application to several flight control examples.

Feedforward/feedback control synthesis for performance and robustness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Liu, Qiang

1990-01-01

Both feedforward and feedback control approaches for uncertain dynamical systems are investigated. The control design objective is to achieve a fast settling time (high performance) and robustness (insensitivity) to plant modeling uncertainty. Preshapong of an ideal, time-optimal control input using a 'tapped-delay' filter is shown to provide a rapid maneuver with robust performance. A robust, non-minimum-phase feedback controller is synthesized with particular emphasis on its proper implementation for a non-zero set-point control problem. The proposed feedforward/feedback control approach is robust for a certain class of uncertain dynamical systems, since the control input command computed for a given desired output does not depend on the plant parameters.

Uncertainty quantification tools for multiphase gas-solid flow simulations using MFIX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, Rodney O.; Passalacqua, Alberto

2016-02-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely studied and used in the scientific community and in the industry. Various models were proposed to solve problems in different areas. However, all models deviate from reality. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) process evaluates the overall uncertainties associated with the prediction of quantities of interest. In particular it studies the propagation of input uncertainties to the outputs of the models so that confidence intervals can be provided for the simulation results. In the present work, a non-intrusive quadrature-based uncertainty quantification (QBUQ) approach is proposed. The probability distribution function (PDF) of the system response can bemore » then reconstructed using extended quadrature method of moments (EQMOM) and extended conditional quadrature method of moments (ECQMOM). The report first explains the theory of QBUQ approach, including methods to generate samples for problems with single or multiple uncertain input parameters, low order statistics, and required number of samples. Then methods for univariate PDF reconstruction (EQMOM) and multivariate PDF reconstruction (ECQMOM) are explained. The implementation of QBUQ approach into the open-source CFD code MFIX is discussed next. At last, QBUQ approach is demonstrated in several applications. The method is first applied to two examples: a developing flow in a channel with uncertain viscosity, and an oblique shock problem with uncertain upstream Mach number. The error in the prediction of the moment response is studied as a function of the number of samples, and the accuracy of the moments required to reconstruct the PDF of the system response is discussed. The QBUQ approach is then demonstrated by considering a bubbling fluidized bed as example application. The mean particle size is assumed to be the uncertain input parameter. The system is simulated with a standard two-fluid model with kinetic theory closures for the particulate phase implemented into MFIX. The effect of uncertainty on the disperse-phase volume fraction, on the phase velocities and on the pressure drop inside the fluidized bed are examined, and the reconstructed PDFs are provided for the three quantities studied. Then the approach is applied to a bubbling fluidized bed with two uncertain parameters, particle-particle and particle-wall restitution coefficients. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities and gas pressure are provided. The PDFs of the response are reconstructed using EQMOM with appropriate kernel density functions. The simulation results are compared to experimental data provided by the 2013 NETL small-scale challenge problem. Lastly, the proposed procedure is demonstrated by considering a riser of a circulating fluidized bed as an example application. The mean particle size is considered to be the uncertain input parameter. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities, and granular temperature are provided. Mean values and confidence intervals of the quantities of interest are compared to the experiment results. The univariate and bivariate PDF reconstructions of the system response are performed using EQMOM and ECQMOM.« less

Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for CFD Calculations: Theory and Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

Simulation codes often utilize finite-dimensional approximation resulting in numerical error. Some examples include, numerical methods utilizing grids and finite-dimensional basis functions, particle methods using a finite number of particles. These same simulation codes also often contain sources of uncertainty, for example, uncertain parameters and fields associated with the imposition of initial and boundary data,uncertain physical model parameters such as chemical reaction rates, mixture model parameters, material property parameters, etc.

Response to ``Comment on `Adaptive Q-S (lag, anticipated, and complete) time-varying synchronization and parameters identification of uncertain delayed neural networks''' [Chaos 17, 038101 (2007)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wenwu; Cao, Jinde

2007-09-01

Parameter identification of dynamical systems from time series has received increasing interest due to its wide applications in secure communication, pattern recognition, neural networks, and so on. Given the driving system, parameters can be estimated from the time series by using an adaptive control algorithm. Recently, it has been reported that for some stable systems, in which parameters are difficult to be identified [Li et al., Phys Lett. A 333, 269-270 (2004); Remark 5 in Yu and Cao, Physica A 375, 467-482 (2007); and Li et al., Chaos 17, 038101 (2007)], and in this paper, a brief discussion about whether parameters can be identified from time series is investigated. From some detailed analyses, the problem of why parameters of stable systems can be hardly estimated is discussed. Some interesting examples are drawn to verify the proposed analysis.

Uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis of techno-economic assessments for biodiesel production.

PubMed

Tang, Zhang-Chun; Zhenzhou, Lu; Zhiwen, Liu; Ningcong, Xiao

2015-01-01

There are various uncertain parameters in the techno-economic assessments (TEAs) of biodiesel production, including capital cost, interest rate, feedstock price, maintenance rate, biodiesel conversion efficiency, glycerol price and operating cost. However, fewer studies focus on the influence of these parameters on TEAs. This paper investigated the effects of these parameters on the life cycle cost (LCC) and the unit cost (UC) in the TEAs of biodiesel production. The results show that LCC and UC exhibit variations when involving uncertain parameters. Based on the uncertainty analysis, three global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods are utilized to quantify the contribution of an individual uncertain parameter to LCC and UC. The GSA results reveal that the feedstock price and the interest rate produce considerable effects on the TEAs. These results can provide a useful guide for entrepreneurs when they plan plants. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Distributed adaptive asymptotically consensus tracking control of uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Wen, Changyun; Huang, Jiangshuai; Fan, Huijin

2017-11-01

In this paper, a backstepping based distributed adaptive control scheme is proposed for multiple uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition. The common desired trajectory is allowed totally unknown by part of the subsystems and the linearly parameterized trajectory model assumed in currently available results is no longer needed. To compensate the effects due to unknown trajectory information, a smooth function of consensus errors and certain positive integrable functions are introduced in designing virtual control inputs. Besides, to overcome the difficulty of completely counteracting the coupling terms of distributed consensus errors and parameter estimation errors in the presence of asymmetric Laplacian matrix, extra information transmission of local parameter estimates are introduced among linked subsystem and adaptive gain technique is adopted to generate distributed torque inputs. It is shown that with the proposed distributed adaptive control scheme, global uniform boundedness of all the closed-loop signals and asymptotically output consensus tracking can be achieved. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observer-Based Adaptive NN Control for a Class of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems With Nonsymmetric Input Saturation.

PubMed

Yong-Feng Gao; Xi-Ming Sun; Changyun Wen; Wei Wang

2017-07-01

This paper is concerned with the problem of adaptive tracking control for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with nonsymmetric input saturation and immeasurable states. The radial basis function of neural network (NN) is employed to approximate unknown functions, and an NN state observer is designed to estimate the immeasurable states. To analyze the effect of input saturation, an auxiliary system is employed. By the aid of adaptive backstepping technique, an adaptive tracking control approach is developed. Under the proposed adaptive tracking controller, the boundedness of all the signals in the closed-loop system is achieved. Moreover, distinct from most of the existing references, the tracking error can be bounded by an explicit function of design parameters and saturation input error. Finally, an example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Generalized Distributed Consensus-based Algorithms for Uncertain Systems and Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

time linear systems with markovian jumping parameters and additive disturbances. SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, 44(4):1165– 1191, 2005... time marko- vian jump linear systems , in the presence of delayed mode observations. Proceed- ings of the 2008 IEEE American Control Conference, pages...Markovian Jump Linear System state estimation . . . . 147 6 Conclusions 152 A Discrete- Time Coupled Matrix Equations 156 A.1 Properties of a special

Rendezvous with connectivity preservation for multi-robot systems with an unknown leader

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yi

2018-02-01

This paper studies the leader-following rendezvous problem with connectivity preservation for multi-agent systems composed of uncertain multi-robot systems subject to external disturbances and an unknown leader, both of which are generated by a so-called exosystem with parametric uncertainty. By combining internal model design, potential function technique and adaptive control, two distributed control strategies are proposed to maintain the connectivity of the communication network, to achieve the asymptotic tracking of all the followers to the output of the unknown leader system, as well as to reject unknown external disturbances. It is also worth to mention that the uncertain parameters in the multi-robot systems and exosystem are further allowed to belong to unknown and unbounded sets when applying the second fully distributed control law containing a dynamic gain inspired by high-gain adaptive control or self-tuning regulator.

Fuzzy Adaptive Control Design and Discretization for a Class of Nonlinear Uncertain Systems.

PubMed

Zhao, Xudong; Shi, Peng; Zheng, Xiaolong

2016-06-01

In this paper, tracking control problems are investigated for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems in lower triangular form. First, a state-feedback controller is designed by using adaptive backstepping technique and the universal approximation ability of fuzzy logic systems. During the design procedure, a developed method with less computation is proposed by constructing one maximum adaptive parameter. Furthermore, adaptive controllers with nonsymmetric dead-zone are also designed for the systems. Then, a sampled-data control scheme is presented to discretize the obtained continuous-time controller by using the forward Euler method. It is shown that both proposed continuous and discrete controllers can ensure that the system output tracks the target signal with a small bounded error and the other closed-loop signals remain bounded. Two simulation examples are presented to verify the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed new design techniques.

On Non-Linear Sensitivity of Marine Biological Models to Parameter Variations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

M.B., 2002. Understanding uncertain enviromental systems. In: Grasman, J., van Straten, G. (Eds.), Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural...model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices. Comput. Phys. Commun. 145, 280–297. Saltelli, A., Andres, T.H., Homma, T., 1993. Some new techniques

Direct computation of stochastic flow in reservoirs with uncertain parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dainton, M.P.; Nichols, N.K.; Goldwater, M.H.

1997-01-15

A direct method is presented for determining the uncertainty in reservoir pressure, flow, and net present value (NPV) using the time-dependent, one phase, two- or three-dimensional equations of flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the solution is modelled as a probability distribution function and is computed from given statistical data for input parameters such as permeability. The method generates an expansion for the mean of the pressure about a deterministic solution to the system equations using a perturbation to the mean of the input parameters. Hierarchical equations that define approximations to the mean solution at each point andmore » to the field convariance of the pressure are developed and solved numerically. The procedure is then used to find the statistics of the flow and the risked value of the field, defined by the NPV, for a given development scenario. This method involves only one (albeit complicated) solution of the equations and contrasts with the more usual Monte-Carlo approach where many such solutions are required. The procedure is applied easily to other physical systems modelled by linear or nonlinear partial differential equations with uncertain data. 14 refs., 14 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Anti-windup adaptive PID control design for a class of uncertain chaotic systems with input saturation.

PubMed

Tahoun, A H

2017-01-01

In this paper, the stabilization problem of actuators saturation in uncertain chaotic systems is investigated via an adaptive PID control method. The PID control parameters are auto-tuned adaptively via adaptive control laws. A multi-level augmented error is designed to account for the extra terms appearing due to the use of PID and saturation. The proposed control technique uses both the state-feedback and the output-feedback methodologies. Based on Lyapunov׳s stability theory, new anti-windup adaptive controllers are proposed. Demonstrative examples with MATLAB simulations are studied. The simulation results show the efficiency of the proposed adaptive PID controllers. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complete synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems via a single proportional adaptive controller: A comparative study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahmad, Israr, E-mail: iak-2000plus@yahoo.com; Saaban, Azizan Bin, E-mail: azizan.s@uum.edu.my; Ibrahim, Adyda Binti, E-mail: adyda@uum.edu.my

This paper addresses a comparative computational study on the synchronization quality, cost and converging speed for two pairs of identical chaotic and hyperchaotic systems with unknown time-varying parameters. It is assumed that the unknown time-varying parameters are bounded. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory and using the adaptive control method, a single proportional controller is proposed to achieve the goal of complete synchronizations. Accordingly, appropriate adaptive laws are designed to identify the unknown time-varying parameters. The designed control strategy is easy to implement in practice. Numerical simulations results are provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed synchronization scheme.

Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO 2 Geological Sequestration

DOE PAGES

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; ...

2012-12-20

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

Adaptive neural output-feedback control for nonstrict-feedback time-delay fractional-order systems with output constraints and actuator nonlinearities.

PubMed

Zouari, Farouk; Ibeas, Asier; Boulkroune, Abdesselem; Cao, Jinde; Mehdi Arefi, Mohammad

2018-06-01

This study addresses the issue of the adaptive output tracking control for a category of uncertain nonstrict-feedback delayed incommensurate fractional-order systems in the presence of nonaffine structures, unmeasured pseudo-states, unknown control directions, unknown actuator nonlinearities and output constraints. Firstly, the mean value theorem and the Gaussian error function are introduced to eliminate the difficulties that arise from the nonaffine structures and the unknown actuator nonlinearities, respectively. Secondly, the immeasurable tracking error variables are suitably estimated by constructing a fractional-order linear observer. Thirdly, the neural network, the Razumikhin Lemma, the variable separation approach, and the smooth Nussbaum-type function are used to deal with the uncertain nonlinear dynamics, the unknown time-varying delays, the nonstrict feedback and the unknown control directions, respectively. Fourthly, asymmetric barrier Lyapunov functions are employed to overcome the violation of the output constraints and to tune online the parameters of the adaptive neural controller. Through rigorous analysis, it is proved that the boundedness of all variables in the closed-loop system and the semi global asymptotic tracking are ensured without transgression of the constraints. The principal contributions of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) based on Caputo's definitions and new lemmas, methods concerning the controllability, observability and stability analysis of integer-order systems are extended to fractional-order ones, (2) the output tracking objective for a relatively large class of uncertain systems is achieved with a simple controller and less tuning parameters. Finally, computer-simulation studies from the robotic field are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On Complete Control and Synchronization of Zhang Chaotic System with Uncertain Parameters using Adaptive Control Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tirandaz, Hamed

2018-03-01

Chaos control and synchronization of chaotic systems is seemingly a challenging problem and has got a lot of attention in recent years due to its numerous applications in science and industry. This paper concentrates on the control and synchronization problem of the three-dimensional (3D) Zhang chaotic system. At first, an adaptive control law and a parameter estimation law are achieved for controlling the behavior of the Zhang chaotic system. Then, non-identical synchronization of Zhang chaotic system is provided with considering the Lü chaotic system as the follower system. The synchronization problem and parameters identification are achieved by introducing an adaptive control law and a parameters estimation law. Stability analysis of the proposed method is proved by the Lyapanov stability theorem. In addition, the convergence of the estimated parameters to their truly unknown values are evaluated. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate and to validate the effectiveness of the suggested method.

Nonlinear control of linear parameter varying systems with applications to hypersonic vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, Zachary Donald

The focus of this dissertation is to design a controller for linear parameter varying (LPV) systems, apply it specifically to air-breathing hypersonic vehicles, and examine the interplay between control performance and the structural dynamics design. Specifically a Lyapunov-based continuous robust controller is developed that yields exponential tracking of a reference model, despite the presence of bounded, nonvanishing disturbances. The hypersonic vehicle has time varying parameters, specifically temperature profiles, and its dynamics can be reduced to an LPV system with additive disturbances. Since the HSV can be modeled as an LPV system the proposed control design is directly applicable. The control performance is directly examined through simulations. A wide variety of applications exist that can be effectively modeled as LPV systems. In particular, flight systems have historically been modeled as LPV systems and associated control tools have been applied such as gain-scheduling, linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), linear fractional transformations (LFT), and mu-types. However, as the type of flight environments and trajectories become more demanding, the traditional LPV controllers may no longer be sufficient. In particular, hypersonic flight vehicles (HSVs) present an inherently difficult problem because of the nonlinear aerothermoelastic coupling effects in the dynamics. HSV flight conditions produce temperature variations that can alter both the structural dynamics and flight dynamics. Starting with the full nonlinear dynamics, the aerothermoelastic effects are modeled by a temperature dependent, parameter varying state-space representation with added disturbances. The model includes an uncertain parameter varying state matrix, an uncertain parameter varying non-square (column deficient) input matrix, and an additive bounded disturbance. In this dissertation, a robust dynamic controller is formulated for a uncertain and disturbed LPV system. The developed controller is then applied to a HSV model, and a Lyapunov analysis is used to prove global exponential reference model tracking in the presence of uncertainty in the state and input matrices and exogenous disturbances. Simulations with a spectrum of gains and temperature profiles on the full nonlinear dynamic model of the HSV is used to illustrate the performance and robustness of the developed controller. In addition, this work considers how the performance of the developed controller varies over a wide variety of control gains and temperature profiles and are optimized with respect to different performance metrics. Specifically, various temperature profile models and related nonlinear temperature dependent disturbances are used to characterize the relative control performance and effort for each model. Examining such metrics as a function of temperature provides a potential inroad to examine the interplay between structural/thermal protection design and control development and has application for future HSV design and control implementation.

Almost output regulation of LFT systems via gain-scheduling control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Chengzhi; Duan, Chang; Wu, Fen

2018-05-01

Output regulation of general uncertain systems is a meaningful yet challenging problem. In spite of the rich literature in the field, the problem has not yet been addressed adequately due to the lack of an effective design mechanism. In this paper, we propose a new design framework for almost output regulation of uncertain systems described in the general form of linear fractional transformation (LFT) with time-varying parametric uncertainties and unknown external perturbations. A novel semi-LFT gain-scheduling output regulator structure is proposed, such that the associated control synthesis conditions guaranteeing both output regulation and ? disturbance attenuation performance are formulated as a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) plus parameter-dependent linear matrix equations, which can be solved separately. A numerical example has been used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Adaptive robust fault tolerant control design for a class of nonlinear uncertain MIMO systems with quantization.

PubMed

Ao, Wei; Song, Yongdong; Wen, Changyun

2017-05-01

In this paper, we investigate the adaptive control problem for a class of nonlinear uncertain MIMO systems with actuator faults and quantization effects. Under some mild conditions, an adaptive robust fault-tolerant control is developed to compensate the affects of uncertainties, actuator failures and errors caused by quantization, and a range of the parameters for these quantizers is established. Furthermore, a Lyapunov-like approach is adopted to demonstrate that the ultimately uniformly bounded output tracking error is guaranteed by the controller, and the signals of the closed-loop system are ensured to be bounded, even in the presence of at most m-q actuators stuck or outage. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to verify and illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive schemes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observer-based state tracking control of uncertain stochastic systems via repetitive controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakthivel, R.; Susana Ramya, L.; Selvaraj, P.

2017-08-01

This paper develops the repetitive control scheme for state tracking control of uncertain stochastic time-varying delay systems via equivalent-input-disturbance approach. The main purpose of this work is to design a repetitive controller to guarantee the tracking performance under the effects of unknown disturbances with bounded frequency and parameter variations. Specifically, a new set of linear matrix inequality (LMI)-based conditions is derived based on the suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional theory for designing a repetitive controller which guarantees stability and desired tracking performance. More precisely, an equivalent-input-disturbance estimator is incorporated into the control design to reduce the effect of the external disturbances. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the desired control system stability and their tracking performance. A practical stream water quality preserving system is also provided to show the effectiveness and advantage of the proposed approach.

Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of Subsurface Flow Parameters to Gravimetric Variations During Pumping Tests in Unconfined Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maina, Fadji Zaouna; Guadagnini, Alberto

2018-01-01

We study the contribution of typically uncertain subsurface flow parameters to gravity changes that can be recorded during pumping tests in unconfined aquifers. We do so in the framework of a Global Sensitivity Analysis and quantify the effects of uncertainty of such parameters on the first four statistical moments of the probability distribution of gravimetric variations induced by the operation of the well. System parameters are grouped into two main categories, respectively, governing groundwater flow in the unsaturated and saturated portions of the domain. We ground our work on the three-dimensional analytical model proposed by Mishra and Neuman (2011), which fully takes into account the richness of the physical process taking place across the unsaturated and saturated zones and storage effects in a finite radius pumping well. The relative influence of model parameter uncertainties on drawdown, moisture content, and gravity changes are quantified through (a) the Sobol' indices, derived from a classical decomposition of variance and (b) recently developed indices quantifying the relative contribution of each uncertain model parameter to the (ensemble) mean, skewness, and kurtosis of the model output. Our results document (i) the importance of the effects of the parameters governing the unsaturated flow dynamics on the mean and variance of local drawdown and gravity changes; (ii) the marked sensitivity (as expressed in terms of the statistical moments analyzed) of gravity changes to the employed water retention curve model parameter, specific yield, and storage, and (iii) the influential role of hydraulic conductivity of the unsaturated and saturated zones to the skewness and kurtosis of gravimetric variation distributions. The observed temporal dynamics of the strength of the relative contribution of system parameters to gravimetric variations suggest that gravity data have a clear potential to provide useful information for estimating the key hydraulic parameters of the system.

Robust root clustering for linear uncertain systems using generalized Lyapunov theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yedavalli, R. K.

1993-01-01

Consideration is given to the problem of matrix root clustering in subregions of a complex plane for linear state space models with real parameter uncertainty. The nominal matrix root clustering theory of Gutman & Jury (1981) using the generalized Liapunov equation is extended to the perturbed matrix case, and bounds are derived on the perturbation to maintain root clustering inside a given region. The theory makes it possible to obtain an explicit relationship between the parameters of the root clustering region and the uncertainty range of the parameter space.

Synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain switched network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Li, Gang; Sun, Ao; Yan, Zhe; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan

2017-06-01

We propose a new technology for synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology. In synchronization process, the connection of dynamic network can vary at all time according to different demands. Especially, we construct the Lyapunov function of network through designing a special semi-positive definite function, and the synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology can be realized perfectly, which effectively avoids the complicated calculation for solving the second largest eignvalue of the coupling matrix of the dynamic network in order to obtain the network synchronization condition. At the same time, the uncertain parameters in dynamic equations belonging to network nodes can also be identified accurately via designing the identification laws of uncertain parameters. In addition, there are not any limitations for the synchronization target of network in the new technology, in other words, the target can either be a state variable signal of an arbitrary node within the network or an exterior signal.

Polynomial chaos expansion with random and fuzzy variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquelin, E.; Friswell, M. I.; Adhikari, S.; Dessombz, O.; Sinou, J.-J.

2016-06-01

A dynamical uncertain system is studied in this paper. Two kinds of uncertainties are addressed, where the uncertain parameters are described through random variables and/or fuzzy variables. A general framework is proposed to deal with both kinds of uncertainty using a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). It is shown that fuzzy variables may be expanded in terms of polynomial chaos when Legendre polynomials are used. The components of the PCE are a solution of an equation that does not depend on the nature of uncertainty. Once this equation is solved, the post-processing of the data gives the moments of the random response when the uncertainties are random or gives the response interval when the variables are fuzzy. With the PCE approach, it is also possible to deal with mixed uncertainty, when some parameters are random and others are fuzzy. The results provide a fuzzy description of the response statistical moments.

A Control Variate Method for Probabilistic Performance Assessment. Improved Estimates for Mean Performance Quantities of Interest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacKinnon, Robert J.; Kuhlman, Kristopher L

2016-05-01

We present a method of control variates for calculating improved estimates for mean performance quantities of interest, E(PQI) , computed from Monte Carlo probabilistic simulations. An example of a PQI is the concentration of a contaminant at a particular location in a problem domain computed from simulations of transport in porous media. To simplify the presentation, the method is described in the setting of a one- dimensional elliptical model problem involving a single uncertain parameter represented by a probability distribution. The approach can be easily implemented for more complex problems involving multiple uncertain parameters and in particular for application tomore » probabilistic performance assessment of deep geologic nuclear waste repository systems. Numerical results indicate the method can produce estimates of E(PQI)having superior accuracy on coarser meshes and reduce the required number of simulations needed to achieve an acceptable estimate.« less

A generalized Lyapunov theory for robust root clustering of linear state space models with real parameter uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yedavalli, R. K.

1992-01-01

The problem of analyzing and designing controllers for linear systems subject to real parameter uncertainty is considered. An elegant, unified theory for robust eigenvalue placement is presented for a class of D-regions defined by algebraic inequalities by extending the nominal matrix root clustering theory of Gutman and Jury (1981) to linear uncertain time systems. The author presents explicit conditions for matrix root clustering for different D-regions and establishes the relationship between the eigenvalue migration range and the parameter range. The bounds are all obtained by one-shot computation in the matrix domain and do not need any frequency sweeping or parameter gridding. The method uses the generalized Lyapunov theory for getting the bounds.

On the adaptive sliding mode controller for a hyperchaotic fractional-order financial system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajipour, Ahamad; Hajipour, Mojtaba; Baleanu, Dumitru

2018-05-01

This manuscript mainly focuses on the construction, dynamic analysis and control of a new fractional-order financial system. The basic dynamical behaviors of the proposed system are studied such as the equilibrium points and their stability, Lyapunov exponents, bifurcation diagrams, phase portraits of state variables and the intervals of system parameters. It is shown that the system exhibits hyperchaotic behavior for a number of system parameters and fractional-order values. To stabilize the proposed hyperchaotic fractional system with uncertain dynamics and disturbances, an efficient adaptive sliding mode controller technique is developed. Using the proposed technique, two hyperchaotic fractional-order financial systems are also synchronized. Numerical simulations are presented to verify the successful performance of the designed controllers.

New results on finite-time parameter identification and synchronization of uncertain complex dynamical networks with perturbation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hui; Zheng, Mingwen; Li, Shudong; Wang, Weiping

2018-03-01

Some existing papers focused on finite-time parameter identification and synchronization, but provided incomplete theoretical analyses. Such works incorporated conflicting constraints for parameter identification, therefore, the practical significance could not be fully demonstrated. To overcome such limitations, the underlying paper presents new results of parameter identification and synchronization for uncertain complex dynamical networks with impulsive effect and stochastic perturbation based on finite-time stability theory. Novel results of parameter identification and synchronization control criteria are obtained in a finite time by utilizing Lyapunov function and linear matrix inequality respectively. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

Computationally inexpensive approach for pitch control of offshore wind turbine on barge floating platform.

PubMed

Zuo, Shan; Song, Y D; Wang, Lei; Song, Qing-wang

2013-01-01

Offshore floating wind turbine (OFWT) has gained increasing attention during the past decade because of the offshore high-quality wind power and complex load environment. The control system is a tradeoff between power tracking and fatigue load reduction in the above-rated wind speed area. In allusion to the external disturbances and uncertain system parameters of OFWT due to the proximity to load centers and strong wave coupling, this paper proposes a computationally inexpensive robust adaptive control approach with memory-based compensation for blade pitch control. The method is tested and compared with a baseline controller and a conventional individual blade pitch controller with the "NREL offshore 5 MW baseline wind turbine" being mounted on a barge platform run on FAST and Matlab/Simulink, operating in the above-rated condition. It is shown that the advanced control approach is not only robust to complex wind and wave disturbances but adaptive to varying and uncertain system parameters as well. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method performs better in reducing power fluctuations, fatigue loads and platform vibration as compared to the conventional individual blade pitch control.

Computationally Inexpensive Approach for Pitch Control of Offshore Wind Turbine on Barge Floating Platform

PubMed Central

Zuo, Shan; Song, Y. D.; Wang, Lei; Song, Qing-wang

2013-01-01

Offshore floating wind turbine (OFWT) has gained increasing attention during the past decade because of the offshore high-quality wind power and complex load environment. The control system is a tradeoff between power tracking and fatigue load reduction in the above-rated wind speed area. In allusion to the external disturbances and uncertain system parameters of OFWT due to the proximity to load centers and strong wave coupling, this paper proposes a computationally inexpensive robust adaptive control approach with memory-based compensation for blade pitch control. The method is tested and compared with a baseline controller and a conventional individual blade pitch controller with the “NREL offshore 5 MW baseline wind turbine” being mounted on a barge platform run on FAST and Matlab/Simulink, operating in the above-rated condition. It is shown that the advanced control approach is not only robust to complex wind and wave disturbances but adaptive to varying and uncertain system parameters as well. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method performs better in reducing power fluctuations, fatigue loads and platform vibration as compared to the conventional individual blade pitch control. PMID:24453834

Rational selection of experimental readout and intervention sites for reducing uncertainties in computational model predictions.

PubMed

Flassig, Robert J; Migal, Iryna; der Zalm, Esther van; Rihko-Struckmann, Liisa; Sundmacher, Kai

2015-01-16

Understanding the dynamics of biological processes can substantially be supported by computational models in the form of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE). Typically, this model class contains many unknown parameters, which are estimated from inadequate and noisy data. Depending on the ODE structure, predictions based on unmeasured states and associated parameters are highly uncertain, even undetermined. For given data, profile likelihood analysis has been proven to be one of the most practically relevant approaches for analyzing the identifiability of an ODE structure, and thus model predictions. In case of highly uncertain or non-identifiable parameters, rational experimental design based on various approaches has shown to significantly reduce parameter uncertainties with minimal amount of effort. In this work we illustrate how to use profile likelihood samples for quantifying the individual contribution of parameter uncertainty to prediction uncertainty. For the uncertainty quantification we introduce the profile likelihood sensitivity (PLS) index. Additionally, for the case of several uncertain parameters, we introduce the PLS entropy to quantify individual contributions to the overall prediction uncertainty. We show how to use these two criteria as an experimental design objective for selecting new, informative readouts in combination with intervention site identification. The characteristics of the proposed multi-criterion objective are illustrated with an in silico example. We further illustrate how an existing practically non-identifiable model for the chlorophyll fluorescence induction in a photosynthetic organism, D. salina, can be rendered identifiable by additional experiments with new readouts. Having data and profile likelihood samples at hand, the here proposed uncertainty quantification based on prediction samples from the profile likelihood provides a simple way for determining individual contributions of parameter uncertainties to uncertainties in model predictions. The uncertainty quantification of specific model predictions allows identifying regions, where model predictions have to be considered with care. Such uncertain regions can be used for a rational experimental design to render initially highly uncertain model predictions into certainty. Finally, our uncertainty quantification directly accounts for parameter interdependencies and parameter sensitivities of the specific prediction.

Ascertainment-adjusted parameter estimation approach to improve robustness against misspecification of health monitoring methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juesas, P.; Ramasso, E.

2016-12-01

Condition monitoring aims at ensuring system safety which is a fundamental requirement for industrial applications and that has become an inescapable social demand. This objective is attained by instrumenting the system and developing data analytics methods such as statistical models able to turn data into relevant knowledge. One difficulty is to be able to correctly estimate the parameters of those methods based on time-series data. This paper suggests the use of the Weighted Distribution Theory together with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm to improve parameter estimation in statistical models with latent variables with an application to health monotonic under uncertainty. The improvement of estimates is made possible by incorporating uncertain and possibly noisy prior knowledge on latent variables in a sound manner. The latent variables are exploited to build a degradation model of dynamical system represented as a sequence of discrete states. Examples on Gaussian Mixture Models, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) with discrete and continuous outputs are presented on both simulated data and benchmarks using the turbofan engine datasets. A focus on the application of a discrete HMM to health monitoring under uncertainty allows to emphasize the interest of the proposed approach in presence of different operating conditions and fault modes. It is shown that the proposed model depicts high robustness in presence of noisy and uncertain prior.

Distributed neural network control for adaptive synchronization of uncertain dynamical multiagent systems.

PubMed

Peng, Zhouhua; Wang, Dan; Zhang, Hongwei; Sun, Gang

2014-08-01

This paper addresses the leader-follower synchronization problem of uncertain dynamical multiagent systems with nonlinear dynamics. Distributed adaptive synchronization controllers are proposed based on the state information of neighboring agents. The control design is developed for both undirected and directed communication topologies without requiring the accurate model of each agent. This result is further extended to the output feedback case where a neighborhood observer is proposed based on relative output information of neighboring agents. Then, distributed observer-based synchronization controllers are derived and a parameter-dependent Riccati inequality is employed to prove the stability. This design has a favorable decouple property between the observer and the controller designs for nonlinear multiagent systems. For both cases, the developed controllers guarantee that the state of each agent synchronizes to that of the leader with bounded residual errors. Two illustrative examples validate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

A novel adaptive switching function on fault tolerable sliding mode control for uncertain stochastic systems.

PubMed

Zahiripour, Seyed Ali; Jalali, Ali Akbar

2014-09-01

A novel switching function based on an optimization strategy for the sliding mode control (SMC) method has been provided for uncertain stochastic systems subject to actuator degradation such that the closed-loop system is globally asymptotically stable with probability one. In the previous researches the focus on sliding surface has been on proportional or proportional-integral function of states. In this research, from a degree of freedom that depends on designer choice is used to meet certain objectives. In the design of the switching function, there is a parameter which the designer can regulate for specified objectives. A sliding-mode controller is synthesized to ensure the reachability of the specified switching surface, despite actuator degradation and uncertainties. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integral Sliding Mode Fault-Tolerant Control for Uncertain Linear Systems Over Networks With Signals Quantization.

PubMed

Hao, Li-Ying; Park, Ju H; Ye, Dan

2017-09-01

In this paper, a new robust fault-tolerant compensation control method for uncertain linear systems over networks is proposed, where only quantized signals are assumed to be available. This approach is based on the integral sliding mode (ISM) method where two kinds of integral sliding surfaces are constructed. One is the continuous-state-dependent surface with the aim of sliding mode stability analysis and the other is the quantization-state-dependent surface, which is used for ISM controller design. A scheme that combines the adaptive ISM controller and quantization parameter adjustment strategy is then proposed. Through utilizing H ∞ control analytical technique, once the system is in the sliding mode, the nature of performing disturbance attenuation and fault tolerance from the initial time can be found without requiring any fault information. Finally, the effectiveness of our proposed ISM control fault-tolerant schemes against quantization errors is demonstrated in the simulation.

Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2017-04-01

Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design, thus alleviating the risk of mis-adaptation, namely the design of a solution fully adapted to a scenario that is different from the one that will actually realize.

Finite-time adaptive sliding mode force control for electro-hydraulic load simulator based on improved GMS friction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Shuo; Yan, Hao; Dong, Lijing; Li, Changchun

2018-03-01

This paper addresses the force tracking problem of electro-hydraulic load simulator under the influence of nonlinear friction and uncertain disturbance. A nonlinear system model combined with the improved generalized Maxwell-slip (GMS) friction model is firstly derived to describe the characteristics of load simulator system more accurately. Then, by using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm ​combined with the system hysteresis characteristic analysis, the GMS friction parameters are identified. To compensate for nonlinear friction and uncertain disturbance, a finite-time adaptive sliding mode control method is proposed based on the accurate system model. This controller has the ability to ensure that the system state moves along the nonlinear sliding surface to steady state in a short time as well as good dynamic properties under the influence of parametric uncertainties and disturbance, which further improves the force loading accuracy and rapidity. At the end of this work, simulation and experimental results are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed sliding mode control strategy.

Adaptive Neural Networks Prescribed Performance Control Design for Switched Interconnected Uncertain Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Li, Yongming; Tong, Shaocheng

2017-06-28

In this paper, an adaptive neural networks (NNs)-based decentralized control scheme with the prescribed performance is proposed for uncertain switched nonstrict-feedback interconnected nonlinear systems. It is assumed that nonlinear interconnected terms and nonlinear functions of the concerned systems are unknown, and also the switching signals are unknown and arbitrary. A linear state estimator is constructed to solve the problem of unmeasured states. The NNs are employed to approximate unknown interconnected terms and nonlinear functions. A new output feedback decentralized control scheme is developed by using the adaptive backstepping design technique. The control design problem of nonlinear interconnected switched systems with unknown switching signals can be solved by the proposed scheme, and only a tuning parameter is needed for each subsystem. The proposed scheme can ensure that all variables of the control systems are semi-globally uniformly ultimately bounded and the tracking errors converge to a small residual set with the prescribed performance bound. The effectiveness of the proposed control approach is verified by some simulation results.

Robust LS-SVM-based adaptive constrained control for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with time-varying predefined performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jianjun; Wei, Caisheng; Dai, Honghua; Yuan, Jianping

2018-03-01

This paper focuses on robust adaptive control for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems subject to input saturation and external disturbance with guaranteed predefined tracking performance. To reduce the limitations of classical predefined performance control method in the presence of unknown initial tracking errors, a novel predefined performance function with time-varying design parameters is first proposed. Then, aiming at reducing the complexity of nonlinear approximations, only two least-square-support-vector-machine-based (LS-SVM-based) approximators with two design parameters are required through norm form transformation of the original system. Further, a novel LS-SVM-based adaptive constrained control scheme is developed under the time-vary predefined performance using backstepping technique. Wherein, to avoid the tedious analysis and repeated differentiations of virtual control laws in the backstepping technique, a simple and robust finite-time-convergent differentiator is devised to only extract its first-order derivative at each step in the presence of external disturbance. In this sense, the inherent demerit of backstepping technique-;explosion of terms; brought by the recursive virtual controller design is conquered. Moreover, an auxiliary system is designed to compensate the control saturation. Finally, three groups of numerical simulations are employed to validate the effectiveness of the newly developed differentiator and the proposed adaptive constrained control scheme.

Robust exponential stability of uncertain delayed neural networks with stochastic perturbation and impulse effects.

PubMed

Huang, Tingwen; Li, Chuandong; Duan, Shukai; Starzyk, Janusz A

2012-06-01

This paper focuses on the hybrid effects of parameter uncertainty, stochastic perturbation, and impulses on global stability of delayed neural networks. By using the Ito formula, Lyapunov function, and Halanay inequality, we established several mean-square stability criteria from which we can estimate the feasible bounds of impulses, provided that parameter uncertainty and stochastic perturbations are well-constrained. Moreover, the present method can also be applied to general differential systems with stochastic perturbation and impulses.

Feedback system design with an uncertain plant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milich, D.; Valavani, L.; Athans, M.

1986-01-01

A method is developed to design a fixed-parameter compensator for a linear, time-invariant, SISO (single-input single-output) plant model characterized by significant structured, as well as unstructured, uncertainty. The controller minimizes the H(infinity) norm of the worst-case sensitivity function over the operating band and the resulting feedback system exhibits robust stability and robust performance. It is conjectured that such a robust nonadaptive control design technique can be used on-line in an adaptive control system.

Distributed Optimization Design of Continuous-Time Multiagent Systems With Unknown-Frequency Disturbances.

PubMed

Wang, Xinghu; Hong, Yiguang; Yi, Peng; Ji, Haibo; Kang, Yu

2017-05-24

In this paper, a distributed optimization problem is studied for continuous-time multiagent systems with unknown-frequency disturbances. A distributed gradient-based control is proposed for the agents to achieve the optimal consensus with estimating unknown frequencies and rejecting the bounded disturbance in the semi-global sense. Based on convex optimization analysis and adaptive internal model approach, the exact optimization solution can be obtained for the multiagent system disturbed by exogenous disturbances with uncertain parameters.

Robust Stability and Control of Multi-Body Ground Vehicles with Uncertain Dynamics and Failures

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

and N. Zhang, 2008. “Robust stability control of vehicle rollover subject to actuator time delay”. Proc. IMechE Part I: J. of systems and control ...Dynamic Systems and Control Conference, Boston, MA, Sept 2010 R.K. Yedavalli,”Robust Stability of Linear Interval Parameter Matrix Family Problem...for control coupled output regulation for a class of systems is presented. In section 2.1.7, the control design algorithm developed in section

Tradeoff studies in multiobjective insensitive design of airplane control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schy, A. A.; Giesy, D. P.

1983-01-01

A computer aided design method for multiobjective parameter-insensitive design of airplane control systems is described. Methods are presented for trading off nominal values of design objectives against sensitivities of the design objectives to parameter uncertainties, together with guidelines for designer utilization of the methods. The methods are illustrated by application to the design of a lateral stability augmentation system for two supersonic flight conditions of the Shuttle Orbiter. Objective functions are conventional handling quality measures and peak magnitudes of control deflections and rates. The uncertain parameters are assumed Gaussian, and numerical approximations of the stochastic behavior of the objectives are described. Results of applying the tradeoff methods to this example show that stochastic-insensitive designs are distinctly different from deterministic multiobjective designs. The main penalty for achieving significant decrease in sensitivity is decreased speed of response for the nominal system.

Robust H ∞ Control for Spacecraft Rendezvous with a Noncooperative Target

PubMed Central

Wu, Shu-Nan; Zhou, Wen-Ya; Tan, Shu-Jun; Wu, Guo-Qiang

2013-01-01

The robust H ∞ control for spacecraft rendezvous with a noncooperative target is addressed in this paper. The relative motion of chaser and noncooperative target is firstly modeled as the uncertain system, which contains uncertain orbit parameter and mass. Then the H ∞ performance and finite time performance are proposed, and a robust H ∞ controller is developed to drive the chaser to rendezvous with the non-cooperative target in the presence of control input saturation, measurement error, and thrust error. The linear matrix inequality technology is used to derive the sufficient condition of the proposed controller. An illustrative example is finally provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the controller. PMID:24027446

Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply.

PubMed

Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

2018-03-31

As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems.

Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply

PubMed Central

Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

2018-01-01

As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems. PMID:29614749

Research on the effects of geometrical and material uncertainties on the band gap of the undulated beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Xu, Yanlong

2017-09-01

Considering uncertain geometrical and material parameters, the lower and upper bounds of the band gap of an undulated beam with periodically arched shape are studied by the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and interval analysis based on the Taylor series. Given the random variations of the overall uncertain variables, scatter plots from the MCS are used to analyze the qualitative sensitivities of the band gap respect to these uncertainties. We find that the influence of uncertainty of the geometrical parameter on the band gap of the undulated beam is stronger than that of the material parameter. And this conclusion is also proved by the interval analysis based on the Taylor series. Our methodology can give a strategy to reduce the errors between the design and practical values of the band gaps by improving the accuracy of the specially selected uncertain design variables of the periodical structures.

Minimal-Approximation-Based Distributed Consensus Tracking of a Class of Uncertain Nonlinear Multiagent Systems With Unknown Control Directions.

PubMed

Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

2017-03-28

A minimal-approximation-based distributed adaptive consensus tracking approach is presented for strict-feedback multiagent systems with unknown heterogeneous nonlinearities and control directions under a directed network. Existing approximation-based consensus results for uncertain nonlinear multiagent systems in lower-triangular form have used multiple function approximators in each local controller to approximate unmatched nonlinearities of each follower. Thus, as the follower's order increases, the number of the approximators used in its local controller increases. However, the proposed approach employs only one function approximator to construct the local controller of each follower regardless of the order of the follower. The recursive design methodology using a new error transformation is derived for the proposed minimal-approximation-based design. Furthermore, a bounding lemma on parameters of Nussbaum functions is presented to handle the unknown control direction problem in the minimal-approximation-based distributed consensus tracking framework and the stability of the overall closed-loop system is rigorously analyzed in the Lyapunov sense.

Adaptive tracking control of a wheeled mobile robot via an uncalibrated camera system.

PubMed

Dixon, W E; Dawson, D M; Zergeroglu, E; Behal, A

2001-01-01

This paper considers the problem of position/orientation tracking control of wheeled mobile robots via visual servoing in the presence of parametric uncertainty associated with the mechanical dynamics and the camera system. Specifically, we design an adaptive controller that compensates for uncertain camera and mechanical parameters and ensures global asymptotic position/orientation tracking. Simulation and experimental results are included to illustrate the performance of the control law.

A Survey of Probabilistic Methods for Dynamical Systems with Uncertain Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-01

J., "An Approach to the Theoretical Background of Statistical Energy Analysis Applied to Structural Vibration," Journ. Acoust. Soc. Amer., Vol. 69...1973, Sect. 8.3. 80. Lyon, R.H., " Statistical Energy Analysis of Dynamical Systems," M.I.T. Press, 1975. e) Late References added in Proofreading !! 81...Dowell, E.H., and Kubota, Y., "Asymptotic Modal Analysis and ’~ y C-" -165- Statistical Energy Analysis of Dynamical Systems," Journ. Appi. - Mech

Algorithms for sum-of-squares-based stability analysis and control design of uncertain nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ataei-Esfahani, Armin

In this dissertation, we present algorithmic procedures for sum-of-squares based stability analysis and control design for uncertain nonlinear systems. In particular, we consider the case of robust aircraft control design for a hypersonic aircraft model subject to parametric uncertainties in its aerodynamic coefficients. In recent years, Sum-of-Squares (SOS) method has attracted increasing interest as a new approach for stability analysis and controller design of nonlinear dynamic systems. Through the application of SOS method, one can describe a stability analysis or control design problem as a convex optimization problem, which can efficiently be solved using Semidefinite Programming (SDP) solvers. For nominal systems, the SOS method can provide a reliable and fast approach for stability analysis and control design for low-order systems defined over the space of relatively low-degree polynomials. However, The SOS method is not well-suited for control problems relating to uncertain systems, specially those with relatively high number of uncertainties or those with non-affine uncertainty structure. In order to avoid issues relating to the increased complexity of the SOS problems for uncertain system, we present an algorithm that can be used to transform an SOS problem with uncertainties into a LMI problem with uncertainties. A new Probabilistic Ellipsoid Algorithm (PEA) is given to solve the robust LMI problem, which can guarantee the feasibility of a given solution candidate with an a-priori fixed probability of violation and with a fixed confidence level. We also introduce two approaches to approximate the robust region of attraction (RROA) for uncertain nonlinear systems with non-affine dependence on uncertainties. The first approach is based on a combination of PEA and SOS method and searches for a common Lyapunov function, while the second approach is based on the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansion theorem combined with the SOS method and searches for parameter-dependent Lyapunov functions. The control design problem is investigated through a case study of a hypersonic aircraft model with parametric uncertainties. Through time-scale decomposition and a series of function approximations, the complexity of the aircraft model is reduced to fall within the capability of SDP solvers. The control design problem is then formulated as a convex problem using the dual of the Lyapunov theorem. A nonlinear robust controller is searched using the combined PEA/SOS method. The response of the uncertain aircraft model is evaluated for two sets of pilot commands. As the simulation results show, the aircraft remains stable under up to 50% uncertainty in aerodynamic coefficients and can follow the pilot commands.

Parameter estimation for groundwater models under uncertain irrigation data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert J.; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

2015-01-01

The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p < 0.05) bias in estimated parameters and model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

Robust guaranteed-cost adaptive quantum phase estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Shibdas; Berry, Dominic W.; Petersen, Ian R.; Huntington, Elanor H.

2017-05-01

Quantum parameter estimation plays a key role in many fields like quantum computation, communication, and metrology. Optimal estimation allows one to achieve the most precise parameter estimates, but requires accurate knowledge of the model. Any inevitable uncertainty in the model parameters may heavily degrade the quality of the estimate. It is therefore desired to make the estimation process robust to such uncertainties. Robust estimation was previously studied for a varying phase, where the goal was to estimate the phase at some time in the past, using the measurement results from both before and after that time within a fixed time interval up to current time. Here, we consider a robust guaranteed-cost filter yielding robust estimates of a varying phase in real time, where the current phase is estimated using only past measurements. Our filter minimizes the largest (worst-case) variance in the allowable range of the uncertain model parameter(s) and this determines its guaranteed cost. It outperforms in the worst case the optimal Kalman filter designed for the model with no uncertainty, which corresponds to the center of the possible range of the uncertain parameter(s). Moreover, unlike the Kalman filter, our filter in the worst case always performs better than the best achievable variance for heterodyne measurements, which we consider as the tolerable threshold for our system. Furthermore, we consider effective quantum efficiency and effective noise power, and show that our filter provides the best results by these measures in the worst case.

Estimation and impact assessment of input and parameter uncertainty in predicting groundwater flow with a fully distributed model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touhidul Mustafa, Syed Md.; Nossent, Jiri; Ghysels, Gert; Huysmans, Marijke

2017-04-01

Transient numerical groundwater flow models have been used to understand and forecast groundwater flow systems under anthropogenic and climatic effects, but the reliability of the predictions is strongly influenced by different sources of uncertainty. Hence, researchers in hydrological sciences are developing and applying methods for uncertainty quantification. Nevertheless, spatially distributed flow models pose significant challenges for parameter and spatially distributed input estimation and uncertainty quantification. In this study, we present a general and flexible approach for input and parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of groundwater models. The proposed approach combines a fully distributed groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. To avoid over-parameterization, the uncertainty of the spatially distributed model input has been represented by multipliers. The posterior distributions of these multipliers and the regular model parameters were estimated using DREAM. The proposed methodology has been applied in an overexploited aquifer in Bangladesh where groundwater pumping and recharge data are highly uncertain. The results confirm that input uncertainty does have a considerable effect on the model predictions and parameter distributions. Additionally, our approach also provides a new way to optimize the spatially distributed recharge and pumping data along with the parameter values under uncertain input conditions. It can be concluded from our approach that considering model input uncertainty along with parameter uncertainty is important for obtaining realistic model predictions and a correct estimation of the uncertainty bounds.

Probabilistic Density Function Method for Stochastic ODEs of Power Systems with Uncertain Power Input

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Peng; Barajas-Solano, David A.; Constantinescu, Emil

Wind and solar power generators are commonly described by a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) where random input parameters represent uncertainty in wind and solar energy. The existing methods for SODEs are mostly limited to delta-correlated random parameters (white noise). Here we use the Probability Density Function (PDF) method for deriving a closed-form deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) for the joint probability density function of the SODEs describing a power generator with time-correlated power input. The resulting PDE is solved numerically. A good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulations shows accuracy of the PDF method.

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

Robust fault tolerant control based on sliding mode method for uncertain linear systems with quantization.

PubMed

Hao, Li-Ying; Yang, Guang-Hong

2013-09-01

This paper is concerned with the problem of robust fault-tolerant compensation control problem for uncertain linear systems subject to both state and input signal quantization. By incorporating novel matrix full-rank factorization technique with sliding surface design successfully, the total failure of certain actuators can be coped with, under a special actuator redundancy assumption. In order to compensate for quantization errors, an adjustment range of quantization sensitivity for a dynamic uniform quantizer is given through the flexible choices of design parameters. Comparing with the existing results, the derived inequality condition leads to the fault tolerance ability stronger and much wider scope of applicability. With a static adjustment policy of quantization sensitivity, an adaptive sliding mode controller is then designed to maintain the sliding mode, where the gain of the nonlinear unit vector term is updated automatically to compensate for the effects of actuator faults, quantization errors, exogenous disturbances and parameter uncertainties without the need for a fault detection and isolation (FDI) mechanism. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed design method is illustrated via a model of a rocket fairing structural-acoustic. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Geraci, Gianluca; Eldred, Michael S.; Vane, Zachary P.; Lacaze, Guilhem; Oefelein, Joseph C.; Najm, Habib N.

2018-03-01

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the systems stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. These methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

Capacity planning for waste management systems: an interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming approach.

PubMed

Nie, Xianghui; Huang, Guo H; Li, Yongping

2009-11-01

This study integrates the concepts of interval numbers and fuzzy sets into optimization analysis by dynamic programming as a means of accounting for system uncertainty. The developed interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming (IFRDP) model improves upon previous interval dynamic programming methods. It allows highly uncertain information to be effectively communicated into the optimization process through introducing the concept of fuzzy boundary interval and providing an interval-parameter fuzzy robust programming method for an embedded linear programming problem. Consequently, robustness of the optimization process and solution can be enhanced. The modeling approach is applied to a hypothetical problem for the planning of waste-flow allocation and treatment/disposal facility expansion within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. Interval solutions for capacity expansion of waste management facilities and relevant waste-flow allocation are generated and interpreted to provide useful decision alternatives. The results indicate that robust and useful solutions can be obtained, and the proposed IFRDP approach is applicable to practical problems that are associated with highly complex and uncertain information.

Uncertainty Quantification in CO 2 Sequestration Using Surrogate Models from Polynomial Chaos Expansion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yan; Sahinidis, Nikolaos V.

2013-03-06

In this paper, surrogate models are iteratively built using polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and detailed numerical simulations of a carbon sequestration system. Output variables from a numerical simulator are approximated as polynomial functions of uncertain parameters. Once generated, PCE representations can be used in place of the numerical simulator and often decrease simulation times by several orders of magnitude. However, PCE models are expensive to derive unless the number of terms in the expansion is moderate, which requires a relatively small number of uncertain variables and a low degree of expansion. To cope with this limitation, instead of using amore » classical full expansion at each step of an iterative PCE construction method, we introduce a mixed-integer programming (MIP) formulation to identify the best subset of basis terms in the expansion. This approach makes it possible to keep the number of terms small in the expansion. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is then performed by substituting the values of the uncertain parameters into the closed-form polynomial functions. Based on the results of MC simulation, the uncertainties of injecting CO{sub 2} underground are quantified for a saline aquifer. Moreover, based on the PCE model, we formulate an optimization problem to determine the optimal CO{sub 2} injection rate so as to maximize the gas saturation (residual trapping) during injection, and thereby minimize the chance of leakage.« less

Synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks with quantum chaotic behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenlin; Li, Chong; Song, Heshan

2016-11-01

Synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks with quantum chaotic behavior is researched. The identification laws of unknown parameters in state equations of network nodes, the adaptive laws of configuration matrix elements and outer coupling strengths are determined based on Lyapunov theorem. The conditions of realizing synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks are discussed and obtained. Further, Jaynes-Cummings model in physics are taken as the nodes of two networks and simulation results show that the synchronization performance between networks is very stable.

Fast computation of the multivariable stability margin for real interrelated uncertain parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sideris, Athanasios; Sanchez Pena, Ricardo S.

1988-01-01

A novel algorithm for computing the multivariable stability margin for checking the robust stability of feedback systems with real parametric uncertainty is proposed. This method eliminates the need for the frequency search involved in another given algorithm by reducing it to checking a finite number of conditions. These conditions have a special structure, which allows a significant improvement on the speed of computations.

Bayesian parameter inference for stochastic biochemical network models using particle Markov chain Monte Carlo

PubMed Central

Golightly, Andrew; Wilkinson, Darren J.

2011-01-01

Computational systems biology is concerned with the development of detailed mechanistic models of biological processes. Such models are often stochastic and analytically intractable, containing uncertain parameters that must be estimated from time course data. In this article, we consider the task of inferring the parameters of a stochastic kinetic model defined as a Markov (jump) process. Inference for the parameters of complex nonlinear multivariate stochastic process models is a challenging problem, but we find here that algorithms based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo turn out to be a very effective computationally intensive approach to the problem. Approximations to the inferential model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are considered, as well as improvements to the inference scheme that exploit the SDE structure. We apply the methodology to a Lotka–Volterra system and a prokaryotic auto-regulatory network. PMID:23226583

A methodology for computing uncertainty bounds of multivariable systems based on sector stability theory concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waszak, Martin R.

1992-01-01

The application of a sector-based stability theory approach to the formulation of useful uncertainty descriptions for linear, time-invariant, multivariable systems is explored. A review of basic sector properties and sector-based approach are presented first. The sector-based approach is then applied to several general forms of parameter uncertainty to investigate its advantages and limitations. The results indicate that the sector uncertainty bound can be used effectively to evaluate the impact of parameter uncertainties on the frequency response of the design model. Inherent conservatism is a potential limitation of the sector-based approach, especially for highly dependent uncertain parameters. In addition, the representation of the system dynamics can affect the amount of conservatism reflected in the sector bound. Careful application of the model can help to reduce this conservatism, however, and the solution approach has some degrees of freedom that may be further exploited to reduce the conservatism.

Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

2014-12-01

Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

Optimized production planning model for a multi-plant cultivation system under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Shunkui; Guo, Doudou; Niu, Qingliang; Huang, Danfeng

2015-02-01

An inexact multi-constraint programming model under uncertainty was developed by incorporating a production plan algorithm into the crop production optimization framework under the multi-plant collaborative cultivation system. In the production plan, orders from the customers are assigned to a suitable plant under the constraints of plant capabilities and uncertainty parameters to maximize profit and achieve customer satisfaction. The developed model and solution method were applied to a case study of a multi-plant collaborative cultivation system to verify its applicability. As determined in the case analysis involving different orders from customers, the period of plant production planning and the interval between orders can significantly affect system benefits. Through the analysis of uncertain parameters, reliable and practical decisions can be generated using the suggested model of a multi-plant collaborative cultivation system.

Multilevel adaptive control of nonlinear interconnected systems.

PubMed

Motallebzadeh, Farzaneh; Ozgoli, Sadjaad; Momeni, Hamid Reza

2015-01-01

This paper presents an adaptive backstepping-based multilevel approach for the first time to control nonlinear interconnected systems with unknown parameters. The system consists of a nonlinear controller at the first level to neutralize the interaction terms, and some adaptive controllers at the second level, in which the gains are optimally tuned using genetic algorithm. The presented scheme can be used in systems with strong couplings where completely ignoring the interactions leads to problems in performance or stability. In order to test the suitability of the method, two case studies are provided: the uncertain double and triple coupled inverted pendulums connected by springs with unknown parameters. The simulation results show that the method is capable of controlling the system effectively, in both regulation and tracking tasks. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method for approximating acoustic-field-amplitude uncertainty caused by environmental uncertainties.

PubMed

James, Kevin R; Dowling, David R

2008-09-01

In underwater acoustics, the accuracy of computational field predictions is commonly limited by uncertainty in environmental parameters. An approximate technique for determining the probability density function (PDF) of computed field amplitude, A, from known environmental uncertainties is presented here. The technique can be applied to several, N, uncertain parameters simultaneously, requires N+1 field calculations, and can be used with any acoustic field model. The technique implicitly assumes independent input parameters and is based on finding the optimum spatial shift between field calculations completed at two different values of each uncertain parameter. This shift information is used to convert uncertain-environmental-parameter distributions into PDF(A). The technique's accuracy is good when the shifted fields match well. Its accuracy is evaluated in range-independent underwater sound channels via an L(1) error-norm defined between approximate and numerically converged results for PDF(A). In 50-m- and 100-m-deep sound channels with 0.5% uncertainty in depth (N=1) at frequencies between 100 and 800 Hz, and for ranges from 1 to 8 km, 95% of the approximate field-amplitude distributions generated L(1) values less than 0.52 using only two field calculations. Obtaining comparable accuracy from traditional methods requires of order 10 field calculations and up to 10(N) when N>1.

An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everett, Chris; Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

An optimization approach for observation association with systemic uncertainty applied to electro-optical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worthy, Johnny L.; Holzinger, Marcus J.; Scheeres, Daniel J.

2018-06-01

The observation to observation measurement association problem for dynamical systems can be addressed by determining if the uncertain admissible regions produced from each observation have one or more points of intersection in state space. An observation association method is developed which uses an optimization based approach to identify local Mahalanobis distance minima in state space between two uncertain admissible regions. A binary hypothesis test with a selected false alarm rate is used to assess the probability that an intersection exists at the point(s) of minimum distance. The systemic uncertainties, such as measurement uncertainties, timing errors, and other parameter errors, define a distribution about a state estimate located at the local Mahalanobis distance minima. If local minima do not exist, then the observations are not associated. The proposed method utilizes an optimization approach defined on a reduced dimension state space to reduce the computational load of the algorithm. The efficacy and efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated on observation data collected from the Georgia Tech Space Object Research Telescope.

Generalized Predictive and Neural Generalized Predictive Control of Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelkar, Atul G.

2000-01-01

The research work presented in this thesis addresses the problem of robust control of uncertain linear and nonlinear systems using Neural network-based Generalized Predictive Control (NGPC) methodology. A brief overview of predictive control and its comparison with Linear Quadratic (LQ) control is given to emphasize advantages and drawbacks of predictive control methods. It is shown that the Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) methodology overcomes the drawbacks associated with traditional LQ control as well as conventional predictive control methods. It is shown that in spite of the model-based nature of GPC it has good robustness properties being special case of receding horizon control. The conditions for choosing tuning parameters for GPC to ensure closed-loop stability are derived. A neural network-based GPC architecture is proposed for the control of linear and nonlinear uncertain systems. A methodology to account for parametric uncertainty in the system is proposed using on-line training capability of multi-layer neural network. Several simulation examples and results from real-time experiments are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Impact of parametric uncertainty on estimation of the energy deposition into an irradiated brain tumor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taverniers, Søren; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

2017-11-01

Predictions of the total energy deposited into a brain tumor through X-ray irradiation are notoriously error-prone. We investigate how this predictive uncertainty is affected by uncertainty in both the location of the region occupied by a dose-enhancing iodinated contrast agent and the agent's concentration. This is done within the probabilistic framework in which these uncertain parameters are modeled as random variables. We employ the stochastic collocation (SC) method to estimate statistical moments of the deposited energy in terms of statistical moments of the random inputs, and the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to quantify the relative importance of uncertainty in these parameters on the overall predictive uncertainty. A nonlinear radiation-diffusion equation dramatically magnifies the coefficient of variation of the uncertain parameters, yielding a large coefficient of variation for the predicted energy deposition. This demonstrates that accurate prediction of the energy deposition requires a proper treatment of even small parametric uncertainty. Our analysis also reveals that SC outperforms standard Monte Carlo, but its relative efficiency decreases as the number of uncertain parameters increases from one to three. A robust GSA ameliorates this problem by reducing this number.

Water Footprint and Water Consumption for the Main Crops and Biofuels Produced in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

2011-12-01

The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Uncertainty Quantification and Risk Mitigation of CO2 Leakage in Groundwater Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

2013-12-01

The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Using an ensemble smoother to evaluate parameter uncertainty of an integrated hydrological model of Yanqi basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; McLaughlin, Dennis; Kinzelbach, Wolfgang; Li, WenPeng; Dong, XinGuang

2015-10-01

Model uncertainty needs to be quantified to provide objective assessments of the reliability of model predictions and of the risk associated with management decisions that rely on these predictions. This is particularly true in water resource studies that depend on model-based assessments of alternative management strategies. In recent decades, Bayesian data assimilation methods have been widely used in hydrology to assess uncertain model parameters and predictions. In this case study, a particular data assimilation algorithm, the Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ESMDA) (Emerick and Reynolds, 2012), is used to derive posterior samples of uncertain model parameters and forecasts for a distributed hydrological model of Yanqi basin, China. This model is constructed using MIKESHE/MIKE11software, which provides for coupling between surface and subsurface processes (DHI, 2011a-d). The random samples in the posterior parameter ensemble are obtained by using measurements to update 50 prior parameter samples generated with a Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) procedure. The posterior forecast samples are obtained from model runs that use the corresponding posterior parameter samples. Two iterative sample update methods are considered: one based on an a perturbed observation Kalman filter update and one based on a square root Kalman filter update. These alternatives give nearly the same results and converge in only two iterations. The uncertain parameters considered include hydraulic conductivities, drainage and river leakage factors, van Genuchten soil property parameters, and dispersion coefficients. The results show that the uncertainty in many of the parameters is reduced during the smoother updating process, reflecting information obtained from the observations. Some of the parameters are insensitive and do not benefit from measurement information. The correlation coefficients among certain parameters increase in each iteration, although they generally stay below 0.50.

Space shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The first twelve system state variables are presented with the necessary mathematical developments for incorporating them into the filter/smoother algorithm. Other state variables, i.e., aerodynamic coefficients can be easily incorporated into the estimation algorithm, representing uncertain parameters, but for initial checkout purposes are treated as known quantities. An approach for incorporating the NASA propulsion predictive model results into the optimal estimation algorithm was identified. This approach utilizes numerical derivatives and nominal predictions within the algorithm with global iterations of the algorithm. The iterative process is terminated when the quality of the estimates provided no longer significantly improves.

Incentive Control Strategies for Decision Problems with Parametric Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cansever, Derya H.

The central theme of this thesis is the design of incentive control policies in large scale systems with hierarchical decision structures, under the stipulation that the objective functionals of the agents at the lower level of the hierarchy are uncertain to the top-level controller (the leader). These uncertainties are modeled as a finite -dimensional parameter vector whose exact value constitutes private information to the relevant agent at the lower level. The approach we have adopted is to design incentive policies for the leader such that the dependence of the decision of the agents on the uncertain parameter is minimized. We have identified several classes of problems for which this approach is feasible. In particular, we have constructed policies whose performance is arbitrarily close to the solution of a version of the same problem that does not involve uncertainties. We have also shown that for a certain class of problem wherein the leader observes a linear combination of the agents' decisions, the leader can achieve the performance he would obtain if he had observed each decision separately.

Verifiable Adaptive Control with Analytical Stability Margins by Optimal Control Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a verifiable model-reference adaptive control method based on an optimal control formulation for linear uncertain systems. A predictor model is formulated to enable a parameter estimation of the system parametric uncertainty. The adaptation is based on both the tracking error and predictor error. Using a singular perturbation argument, it can be shown that the closed-loop system tends to a linear time invariant model asymptotically under an assumption of fast adaptation. A stability margin analysis is given to estimate a lower bound of the time delay margin using a matrix measure method. Using this analytical method, the free design parameter n of the optimal control modification adaptive law can be determined to meet a specification of stability margin for verification purposes.

Surrogate-based optimization of hydraulic fracturing in pre-existing fracture networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Sun, Yunwei; Fu, Pengcheng; Carrigan, Charles R.; Lu, Zhiming; Tong, Charles H.; Buscheck, Thomas A.

2013-08-01

Hydraulic fracturing has been used widely to stimulate production of oil, natural gas, and geothermal energy in formations with low natural permeability. Numerical optimization of fracture stimulation often requires a large number of evaluations of objective functions and constraints from forward hydraulic fracturing models, which are computationally expensive and even prohibitive in some situations. Moreover, there are a variety of uncertainties associated with the pre-existing fracture distributions and rock mechanical properties, which affect the optimized decisions for hydraulic fracturing. In this study, a surrogate-based approach is developed for efficient optimization of hydraulic fracturing well design in the presence of natural-system uncertainties. The fractal dimension is derived from the simulated fracturing network as the objective for maximizing energy recovery sweep efficiency. The surrogate model, which is constructed using training data from high-fidelity fracturing models for mapping the relationship between uncertain input parameters and the fractal dimension, provides fast approximation of the objective functions and constraints. A suite of surrogate models constructed using different fitting methods is evaluated and validated for fast predictions. Global sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the impact of the input variables on the output of interest, and further used for parameter screening. The high efficiency of the surrogate-based approach is demonstrated for three optimization scenarios with different and uncertain ambient conditions. Our results suggest the critical importance of considering uncertain pre-existing fracture networks in optimization studies of hydraulic fracturing.

Multi-Resolution Climate Ensemble Parameter Analysis with Nested Parallel Coordinates Plots.

PubMed

Wang, Junpeng; Liu, Xiaotong; Shen, Han-Wei; Lin, Guang

2017-01-01

Due to the uncertain nature of weather prediction, climate simulations are usually performed multiple times with different spatial resolutions. The outputs of simulations are multi-resolution spatial temporal ensembles. Each simulation run uses a unique set of values for multiple convective parameters. Distinct parameter settings from different simulation runs in different resolutions constitute a multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space. Understanding the correlation between the different convective parameters, and establishing a connection between the parameter settings and the ensemble outputs are crucial to domain scientists. The multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space, however, presents a unique challenge to the existing correlation visualization techniques. We present Nested Parallel Coordinates Plot (NPCP), a new type of parallel coordinates plots that enables visualization of intra-resolution and inter-resolution parameter correlations. With flexible user control, NPCP integrates superimposition, juxtaposition and explicit encodings in a single view for comparative data visualization and analysis. We develop an integrated visual analytics system to help domain scientists understand the connection between multi-resolution convective parameters and the large spatial temporal ensembles. Our system presents intricate climate ensembles with a comprehensive overview and on-demand geographic details. We demonstrate NPCP, along with the climate ensemble visualization system, based on real-world use-cases from our collaborators in computational and predictive science.

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

2016-01-01

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

Optimal robust control strategy of a solid oxide fuel cell system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiaojuan; Gao, Danhui

2018-01-01

Optimal control can ensure system safe operation with a high efficiency. However, only a few papers discuss optimal control strategies for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems. Moreover, the existed methods ignore the impact of parameter uncertainty on system instantaneous performance. In real SOFC systems, several parameters may vary with the variation of operation conditions and can not be identified exactly, such as load current. Therefore, a robust optimal control strategy is proposed, which involves three parts: a SOFC model with parameter uncertainty, a robust optimizer and robust controllers. During the model building process, boundaries of the uncertain parameter are extracted based on Monte Carlo algorithm. To achieve the maximum efficiency, a two-space particle swarm optimization approach is employed to obtain optimal operating points, which are used as the set points of the controllers. To ensure the SOFC safe operation, two feed-forward controllers and a higher-order robust sliding mode controller are presented to control fuel utilization ratio, air excess ratio and stack temperature afterwards. The results show the proposed optimal robust control method can maintain the SOFC system safe operation with a maximum efficiency under load and uncertainty variations.

An integrated and dynamic optimisation model for the multi-level emergency logistics network in anti-bioterrorism system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ming; Zhao, Lindu

2012-08-01

Demand for emergency resources is usually uncertain and varies quickly in anti-bioterrorism system. Besides, emergency resources which had been allocated to the epidemic areas in the early rescue cycle will affect the demand later. In this article, an integrated and dynamic optimisation model with time-varying demand based on the epidemic diffusion rule is constructed. The heuristic algorithm coupled with the MATLAB mathematical programming solver is adopted to solve the optimisation model. In what follows, the application of the optimisation model as well as a short sensitivity analysis of the key parameters in the time-varying demand forecast model is presented. The results show that both the model and the solution algorithm are useful in practice, and both objectives of inventory level and emergency rescue cost can be controlled effectively. Thus, it can provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with emergency rescue problem with uncertain demand, and offers an excellent reference when issues pertain to bioterrorism.

Novel neural control for a class of uncertain pure-feedback systems.

PubMed

Shen, Qikun; Shi, Peng; Zhang, Tianping; Lim, Cheng-Chew

2014-04-01

This paper is concerned with the problem of adaptive neural tracking control for a class of uncertain pure-feedback nonlinear systems. Using the implicit function theorem and backstepping technique, a practical robust adaptive neural control scheme is proposed to guarantee that the tracking error converges to an adjusted neighborhood of the origin by choosing appropriate design parameters. In contrast to conventional Lyapunov-based design techniques, an alternative Lyapunov function is constructed for the development of control law and learning algorithms. Differing from the existing results in the literature, the control scheme does not need to compute the derivatives of virtual control signals at each step in backstepping design procedures. Furthermore, the scheme requires the desired trajectory and its first derivative rather than its first n derivatives. In addition, the useful property of the basis function of the radial basis function, which will be used in control design, is explored. Simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.

On the Numerical Formulation of Parametric Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) Uncertainty Models for Multivariate Matrix Polynomial Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.

1998-01-01

Robust control system analysis and design is based on an uncertainty description, called a linear fractional transformation (LFT), which separates the uncertain (or varying) part of the system from the nominal system. These models are also useful in the design of gain-scheduled control systems based on Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) methods. Low-order LFT models are difficult to form for problems involving nonlinear parameter variations. This paper presents a numerical computational method for constructing and LFT model for a given LPV model. The method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, and uses simple matrix computations to obtain an exact low-order LFT representation of the given LPV system without the use of model reduction. Although the method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, multivariate rational problems can also be solved using this method by reformulating the rational problem into a polynomial form.

Boundary Control of Linear Uncertain 1-D Parabolic PDE Using Approximate Dynamic Programming.

PubMed

Talaei, Behzad; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Singler, John

2018-04-01

This paper develops a near optimal boundary control method for distributed parameter systems governed by uncertain linear 1-D parabolic partial differential equations (PDE) by using approximate dynamic programming. A quadratic surface integral is proposed to express the optimal cost functional for the infinite-dimensional state space. Accordingly, the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is formulated in the infinite-dimensional domain without using any model reduction. Subsequently, a neural network identifier is developed to estimate the unknown spatially varying coefficient in PDE dynamics. Novel tuning law is proposed to guarantee the boundedness of identifier approximation error in the PDE domain. A radial basis network (RBN) is subsequently proposed to generate an approximate solution for the optimal surface kernel function online. The tuning law for near optimal RBN weights is created, such that the HJB equation error is minimized while the dynamics are identified and closed-loop system remains stable. Ultimate boundedness (UB) of the closed-loop system is verified by using the Lyapunov theory. The performance of the proposed controller is successfully confirmed by simulation on an unstable diffusion-reaction process.

Robust adaptive controller design for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems using online T-S fuzzy-neural modeling approach.

PubMed

Chien, Yi-Hsing; Wang, Wei-Yen; Leu, Yih-Guang; Lee, Tsu-Tian

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a novel method of online modeling and control via the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy-neural model for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with some kinds of outputs. Although studies about adaptive T-S fuzzy-neural controllers have been made on some nonaffine nonlinear systems, little is known about the more complicated uncertain nonlinear systems. Because the nonlinear functions of the systems are uncertain, traditional T-S fuzzy control methods can model and control them only with great difficulty, if at all. Instead of modeling these uncertain functions directly, we propose that a T-S fuzzy-neural model approximates a so-called virtual linearized system (VLS) of the system, which includes modeling errors and external disturbances. We also propose an online identification algorithm for the VLS and put significant emphasis on robust tracking controller design using an adaptive scheme for the uncertain systems. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems is proven by using strictly positive real Lyapunov theory. The proposed overall scheme guarantees that the outputs of the closed-loop systems asymptotically track the desired output trajectories. To illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method, simulation results are given in this paper.

Adaptive route choice modeling in uncertain traffic networks with real-time information.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study travelers' route choice behavior in uncertain traffic networks : with real-time information. The research is motivated by two observations of the traffic system: 1) : the system is inherently uncertain with r...

Adaptative synchronization in multi-output fractional-order complex dynamical networks and secure communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mata-Machuca, Juan L.; Aguilar-López, Ricardo

2018-01-01

This work deals with the adaptative synchronization of complex dynamical networks with fractional-order nodes and its application in secure communications employing chaotic parameter modulation. The complex network is composed of multiple fractional-order systems with mismatch parameters and the coupling functions are given to realize the network synchronization. We introduce a fractional algebraic synchronizability condition (FASC) and a fractional algebraic identifiability condition (FAIC) which are used to know if the synchronization and parameters estimation problems can be solved. To overcome these problems, an adaptative synchronization methodology is designed; the strategy consists in proposing multiple receiver systems which tend to follow asymptotically the uncertain transmitters systems. The coupling functions and parameters of the receiver systems are adjusted continually according to a convenient sigmoid-like adaptative controller (SLAC), until the measurable output errors converge to zero, hence, synchronization between transmitter and receivers is achieved and message signals are recovered. Indeed, the stability analysis of the synchronization error is based on the fractional Lyapunov direct method. Finally, numerical results corroborate the satisfactory performance of the proposed scheme by means of the synchronization of a complex network consisting of several fractional-order unified chaotic systems.

Aerial robot intelligent control method based on back-stepping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jian; Xue, Qian

2018-05-01

The aerial robot is characterized as strong nonlinearity, high coupling and parameter uncertainty, a self-adaptive back-stepping control method based on neural network is proposed in this paper. The uncertain part of the aerial robot model is compensated online by the neural network of Cerebellum Model Articulation Controller and robust control items are designed to overcome the uncertainty error of the system during online learning. At the same time, particle swarm algorithm is used to optimize and fix parameters so as to improve the dynamic performance, and control law is obtained by the recursion of back-stepping regression. Simulation results show that the designed control law has desired attitude tracking performance and good robustness in case of uncertainties and large errors in the model parameters.

Adaptive fuzzy dynamic surface control of nonlinear systems with input saturation and time-varying output constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edalati, L.; Khaki Sedigh, A.; Aliyari Shooredeli, M.; Moarefianpour, A.

2018-02-01

This paper deals with the design of adaptive fuzzy dynamic surface control for uncertain strict-feedback nonlinear systems with asymmetric time-varying output constraints in the presence of input saturation. To approximate the unknown nonlinear functions and overcome the problem of explosion of complexity, a Fuzzy logic system is combined with the dynamic surface control in the backstepping design technique. To ensure the output constraints satisfaction, an asymmetric time-varying Barrier Lyapunov Function (BLF) is used. Moreover, by applying the minimal learning parameter technique, the number of the online parameters update for each subsystem is reduced to 2. Hence, the semi-globally uniformly ultimately boundedness (SGUUB) of all the closed-loop signals with appropriate tracking error convergence is guaranteed. The effectiveness of the proposed control is demonstrated by two simulation examples.

An inexact reverse logistics model for municipal solid waste management systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi Mei; Huang, Guo He; He, Li

2011-03-01

This paper proposed an inexact reverse logistics model for municipal solid waste management systems (IRWM). Waste managers, suppliers, industries and distributors were involved in strategic planning and operational execution through reverse logistics management. All the parameters were assumed to be intervals to quantify the uncertainties in the optimization process and solutions in IRWM. To solve this model, a piecewise interval programming was developed to deal with Min-Min functions in both objectives and constraints. The application of the model was illustrated through a classical municipal solid waste management case. With different cost parameters for landfill and the WTE, two scenarios were analyzed. The IRWM could reflect the dynamic and uncertain characteristics of MSW management systems, and could facilitate the generation of desired management plans. The model could be further advanced through incorporating methods of stochastic or fuzzy parameters into its framework. Design of multi-waste, multi-echelon, multi-uncertainty reverse logistics model for waste management network would also be preferred. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of signal scattering and parametric uncertainties on receiver operating characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, D. Keith; Breton, Daniel J.; Hart, Carl R.; Pettit, Chris L.

2017-05-01

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve), which is a plot of the probability of detection as a function of the probability of false alarm, plays a key role in the classical analysis of detector performance. However, meaningful characterization of the ROC curve is challenging when practically important complications such as variations in source emissions, environmental impacts on the signal propagation, uncertainties in the sensor response, and multiple sources of interference are considered. In this paper, a relatively simple but realistic model for scattered signals is employed to explore how parametric uncertainties impact the ROC curve. In particular, we show that parametric uncertainties in the mean signal and noise power substantially raise the tails of the distributions; since receiver operation with a very low probability of false alarm and a high probability of detection is normally desired, these tails lead to severely degraded performance. Because full a priori knowledge of such parametric uncertainties is rarely available in practice, analyses must typically be based on a finite sample of environmental states, which only partially characterize the range of parameter variations. We show how this effect can lead to misleading assessments of system performance. For the cases considered, approximately 64 or more statistically independent samples of the uncertain parameters are needed to accurately predict the probabilities of detection and false alarm. A connection is also described between selection of suitable distributions for the uncertain parameters, and Bayesian adaptive methods for inferring the parameters.

Study on Material Parameters Identification of Brain Tissue Considering Uncertainty of Friction Coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Fengjiao; Zhang, Guanjun; Liu, Jie; Wang, Shujing; Luo, Xu; Zhu, Feng

2017-10-01

Accurate material parameters are critical to construct the high biofidelity finite element (FE) models. However, it is hard to obtain the brain tissue parameters accurately because of the effects of irregular geometry and uncertain boundary conditions. Considering the complexity of material test and the uncertainty of friction coefficient, a computational inverse method for viscoelastic material parameters identification of brain tissue is presented based on the interval analysis method. Firstly, the intervals are used to quantify the friction coefficient in the boundary condition. And then the inverse problem of material parameters identification under uncertain friction coefficient is transformed into two types of deterministic inverse problem. Finally the intelligent optimization algorithm is used to solve the two types of deterministic inverse problems quickly and accurately, and the range of material parameters can be easily acquired with no need of a variety of samples. The efficiency and convergence of this method are demonstrated by the material parameters identification of thalamus. The proposed method provides a potential effective tool for building high biofidelity human finite element model in the study of traffic accident injury.

On the robust optimization to the uncertain vaccination strategy problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaerani, D., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Anggriani, N., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Firdaniza, E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id

2014-02-21

In order to prevent an epidemic of infectious diseases, the vaccination coverage needs to be minimized and also the basic reproduction number needs to be maintained below 1. This means that as we get the vaccination coverage as minimum as possible, thus we need to prevent the epidemic to a small number of people who already get infected. In this paper, we discuss the case of vaccination strategy in term of minimizing vaccination coverage, when the basic reproduction number is assumed as an uncertain parameter that lies between 0 and 1. We refer to the linear optimization model for vaccinationmore » strategy that propose by Becker and Starrzak (see [2]). Assuming that there is parameter uncertainty involved, we can see Tanner et al (see [9]) who propose the optimal solution of the problem using stochastic programming. In this paper we discuss an alternative way of optimizing the uncertain vaccination strategy using Robust Optimization (see [3]). In this approach we assume that the parameter uncertainty lies within an ellipsoidal uncertainty set such that we can claim that the obtained result will be achieved in a polynomial time algorithm (as it is guaranteed by the RO methodology). The robust counterpart model is presented.« less

The impact of personalized probabilistic wall thickness models on peak wall stress in abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Biehler, J; Wall, W A

2018-02-01

If computational models are ever to be used in high-stakes decision making in clinical practice, the use of personalized models and predictive simulation techniques is a must. This entails rigorous quantification of uncertainties as well as harnessing available patient-specific data to the greatest extent possible. Although researchers are beginning to realize that taking uncertainty in model input parameters into account is a necessity, the predominantly used probabilistic description for these uncertain parameters is based on elementary random variable models. In this work, we set out for a comparison of different probabilistic models for uncertain input parameters using the example of an uncertain wall thickness in finite element models of abdominal aortic aneurysms. We provide the first comparison between a random variable and a random field model for the aortic wall and investigate the impact on the probability distribution of the computed peak wall stress. Moreover, we show that the uncertainty about the prevailing peak wall stress can be reduced if noninvasively available, patient-specific data are harnessed for the construction of the probabilistic wall thickness model. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Uncertainty quantification of voice signal production mechanical model and experimental updating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cataldo, E.; Soize, C.; Sampaio, R.

2013-11-01

The aim of this paper is to analyze the uncertainty quantification in a voice production mechanical model and update the probability density function corresponding to the tension parameter using the Bayes method and experimental data. Three parameters are considered uncertain in the voice production mechanical model used: the tension parameter, the neutral glottal area and the subglottal pressure. The tension parameter of the vocal folds is mainly responsible for the changing of the fundamental frequency of a voice signal, generated by a mechanical/mathematical model for producing voiced sounds. The three uncertain parameters are modeled by random variables. The probability density function related to the tension parameter is considered uniform and the probability density functions related to the neutral glottal area and the subglottal pressure are constructed using the Maximum Entropy Principle. The output of the stochastic computational model is the random voice signal and the Monte Carlo method is used to solve the stochastic equations allowing realizations of the random voice signals to be generated. For each realization of the random voice signal, the corresponding realization of the random fundamental frequency is calculated and the prior pdf of this random fundamental frequency is then estimated. Experimental data are available for the fundamental frequency and the posterior probability density function of the random tension parameter is then estimated using the Bayes method. In addition, an application is performed considering a case with a pathology in the vocal folds. The strategy developed here is important mainly due to two things. The first one is related to the possibility of updating the probability density function of a parameter, the tension parameter of the vocal folds, which cannot be measured direct and the second one is related to the construction of the likelihood function. In general, it is predefined using the known pdf. Here, it is constructed in a new and different manner, using the own system considered.

A linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shieh, L. S.; Sunkel, J. W.; Wang, Y. J.

1990-01-01

This paper presents a linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems. The uncertain systems under consideration are described by state equations with the presence of time-varying unknown-but-bounded uncertainty matrices. The method is based on linear quadratic regulator (LQR) theory and Liapunov stability theory. The robust stabilizing control law for a given uncertain system can be easily constructed from the symmetric positive-definite solution of the associated augmented Riccati equation. The proposed approach can be applied to matched and/or mismatched systems with uncertainty matrices in which only their matrix norms are bounded by some prescribed values and/or their entries are bounded by some prescribed constraint sets. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results.

Adaptive tracking control for active suspension systems with non-ideal actuators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Huihui; Sun, Weichao; Jing, Xingjian; Gao, Huijun; Yao, Jianyong

2017-07-01

As a critical component of transportation vehicles, active suspension systems are instrumental in the improvement of ride comfort and maneuverability. However, practical active suspensions commonly suffer from parameter uncertainties (e.g., the variations of payload mass and suspension component parameters), external disturbances and especially the unknown non-ideal actuators (i.e., dead-zone and hysteresis nonlinearities), which always significantly deteriorate the control performance in practice. To overcome these issues, this paper synthesizes an adaptive tracking control strategy for vehicle suspension systems to achieve suspension performance improvements. The proposed control algorithm is formulated by developing a unified framework of non-ideal actuators rather than a separate way, which is a simple yet effective approach to remove the unexpected nonlinear effects. From the perspective of practical implementation, the advantages of the presented controller for active suspensions include that the assumptions on the measurable actuator outputs, the prior knowledge of nonlinear actuator parameters and the uncertain parameters within a known compact set are not required. Furthermore, the stability of the closed-loop suspension system is theoretically guaranteed by rigorous mathematical analysis. Finally, the effectiveness of the presented adaptive control scheme is confirmed using comparative numerical simulation validations.

Applying Bayesian belief networks in rapid response situations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gibson, William L; Deborah, Leishman, A.; Van Eeckhout, Edward

2008-01-01

The authors have developed an enhanced Bayesian analysis tool called the Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) for monitoring and surveillance. The enhancements are suited for Rapid Response Situations where decisions must be made based on uncertain and incomplete evidence from many diverse and heterogeneous sources. The enhancements extend the probabilistic results of the traditional Bayesian analysis by (1) better quantifying uncertainty arising from model parameter uncertainty and uncertain evidence, (2) optimizing the collection of evidence to reach conclusions more quickly, and (3) allowing the analyst to determine the influence of the remaining evidence that cannot be obtained in the time allowed.more » These extended features give the analyst and decision maker a better comprehension of the adequacy of the acquired evidence and hence the quality of the hurried decisions. They also describe two example systems where the above features are highlighted.« less

Efficient Portfolios of the Energy Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikonov, Oleg I.; Medvedeva, Marina A.

2011-09-01

The goal of the research is to apply the methods of Portfolio Theory to a set of technologies instead of to a set of securities on a stock market (as it is the case in the original model). Assets on the stock market are objects that have risk and return, parameters that depend on uncertain factors and thus are uncertain. The returns from the use of technologies also depend on uncertain factors and thus each technology has a certain amount of risk. The simultaneous use of technologies could diversify the risks that are associated with technologies just the same way as diversification works on the stock market.

Hard and Soft Constraints in Reliability-Based Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, L.uis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2006-01-01

This paper proposes a framework for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements in the form of inequality constraints are present. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value and by sets of componentwise bounded uncertain variables. These models, which often arise in engineering problems, allow for a sharp mathematical manipulation. Constraints can be implemented in the hard sense, i.e., constraints must be satisfied for all parameter realizations in the uncertainty model, and in the soft sense, i.e., constraints can be violated by some realizations of the uncertain parameter. In regard to hard constraints, this methodology allows (i) to determine if a hard constraint can be satisfied for a given uncertainty model and constraint structure, (ii) to generate conclusive, formally verifiable reliability assessments that allow for unprejudiced comparisons of competing design alternatives and (iii) to identify the critical combination of uncertain parameters leading to constraint violations. In regard to soft constraints, the methodology allows the designer (i) to use probabilistic uncertainty models, (ii) to calculate upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation, and (iii) to efficiently estimate failure probabilities via a hybrid method. This method integrates the upper bounds, for which closed form expressions are derived, along with conditional sampling. In addition, an l(sub infinity) formulation for the efficient manipulation of hyper-rectangular sets is also proposed.

Nonlinear robust controller design for multi-robot systems with unknown payloads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Y. D.; Anderson, J. N.; Homaifar, A.; Lai, H. Y.

1992-01-01

This work is concerned with the control problem of a multi-robot system handling a payload with unknown mass properties. Force constraints at the grasp points are considered. Robust control schemes are proposed that cope with the model uncertainty and achieve asymptotic path tracking. To deal with the force constraints, a strategy for optimally sharing the task is suggested. This strategy basically consists of two steps. The first detects the robots that need help and the second arranges that help. It is shown that the overall system is not only robust to uncertain payload parameters, but also satisfies the force constraints.

The robust model predictive control based on mixed H2/H∞ approach with separated performance formulations and its ISpS analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dewei; Li, Jiwei; Xi, Yugeng; Gao, Furong

2017-12-01

In practical applications, systems are always influenced by parameter uncertainties and external disturbance. Both the H2 performance and the H∞ performance are important for the real applications. For a constrained system, the previous designs of mixed H2/H∞ robust model predictive control (RMPC) optimise one performance with the other performance requirement as a constraint. But the two performances cannot be optimised at the same time. In this paper, an improved design of mixed H2/H∞ RMPC for polytopic uncertain systems with external disturbances is proposed to optimise them simultaneously. In the proposed design, the original uncertain system is decomposed into two subsystems by the additive character of linear systems. Two different Lyapunov functions are used to separately formulate the two performance indices for the two subsystems. Then, the proposed RMPC is designed to optimise both the two performances by the weighting method with the satisfaction of the H∞ performance requirement. Meanwhile, to make the design more practical, a simplified design is also developed. The recursive feasible conditions of the proposed RMPC are discussed and the closed-loop input state practical stable is proven. The numerical examples reflect the enlarged feasible region and the improved performance of the proposed design.

An interacting O + O supergiant close binary system: Cygnus OB2-5 (V729 Cyg)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaşarsoy, B.; Yakut, K.

2014-08-01

The massive interacting close binary system V729 Cyg (OIa + O/WN9), plausibly progenitor of a Wolf-Rayet system, is studied using new observations gathered over 65 nights and earlier published data. Radial velocity and five color light curves are analysed simultaneously. Estimated physical parameters of the components are M1=36±3 M, M2=10±1 M, R1=27±1 R, R2=15±0.6 R, log(L1/L⊙)=5.59±0.06, and log(L2/L⊙)=4.65±0.07. We give only the formal 1σ scatter, but we believe systematic errors in the luminosities, of uncertain origin as discussed in the text, are likely to be much bigger. The distance of the Cygnus OB2 association is estimated as 967±48 pc by using our newly obtained parameters.

Intelligent Tracking Control for a Class of Uncertain High-Order Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Zhao, Xudong; Shi, Peng; Zheng, Xiaolong; Zhang, Jianhua

2016-09-01

This brief is concerned with the problem of intelligent tracking control for a class of high-order nonlinear systems with completely unknown nonlinearities. An intelligent adaptive control algorithm is presented by combining the adaptive backstepping technique with the neural networks' approximation ability. It is shown that the practical output tracking performance of the system is achieved using the proposed state-feedback controller under two mild assumptions. In particular, by introducing a parameter in the derivations, the tracking error between the time-varying target signal and the output can be reduced via tuning the controller design parameters. Moreover, in order to solve the problem of overparameterization, which is a common issue in adaptive control design, a controller with one adaptive law is also designed. Finally, simulation results are given to show the effectiveness of the theoretical approaches and the potential of the proposed new design techniques.

Does acupuncture ameliorate motor impairment after stroke? An assessment using the CatWalk gait system.

PubMed

Cao, Yan; Sun, Ning; Yang, Jing-Wen; Zheng, Yang; Zhu, Wen; Zhang, Zhen-Hua; Wang, Xue-Rui; Shi, Guang-Xia; Liu, Cun-Zhi

2017-07-01

The effect of acupuncture on gait deficits after stroke is uncertain. This animal study was designed to determine whether acupuncture improves gait impairment following experimentally induced ischemic stroke. Ischemic stroke was induced by permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) in rats. After 7 days' of acupuncture treatment, assessment of gait changes using the CatWalk automated gait analysis system was performed. Comparison of the CatWalk gait parameters among the groups showed that gait function was impaired after ischemic stroke and acupuncture treatment was effective in improving a variety of gait parameters including intensity, stance and swing time, swing speed and stride length at postoperative day 8. This study demonstrates a beneficial effect of acupuncture on gait impairment in rats following ischemic stroke. Further studies aimed to investigate the effects of acupuncture at different stages during stroke using the CatWalk system are required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity analysis to help answer this question, and make the computation of sensitivity indices computationally tractable using a combination of polynomial chaos and Monte Carlo techniques.

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems. Part 1: Theoretical Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-07

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework Fernando Paganini * John Doyle 1 December 7, 1994 Abst rac t This paper...Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...model and a number of constraints relevant to the analysis problem under consideration. In Part I of this paper we propose a theoretical framework which

Research of Uncertainty Reasoning in Pineapple Disease Identification System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Liqun; Fan, Haifeng

In order to deal with the uncertainty of evidences mostly existing in pineapple disease identification system, a reasoning model based on evidence credibility factor was established. The uncertainty reasoning method is discussed,including: uncertain representation of knowledge, uncertain representation of rules, uncertain representation of multi-evidences and update of reasoning rules. The reasoning can fully reflect the uncertainty in disease identification and reduce the influence of subjective factors on the accuracy of the system.

Impedance learning for robotic contact tasks using natural actor-critic algorithm.

PubMed

Kim, Byungchan; Park, Jooyoung; Park, Shinsuk; Kang, Sungchul

2010-04-01

Compared with their robotic counterparts, humans excel at various tasks by using their ability to adaptively modulate arm impedance parameters. This ability allows us to successfully perform contact tasks even in uncertain environments. This paper considers a learning strategy of motor skill for robotic contact tasks based on a human motor control theory and machine learning schemes. Our robot learning method employs impedance control based on the equilibrium point control theory and reinforcement learning to determine the impedance parameters for contact tasks. A recursive least-square filter-based episodic natural actor-critic algorithm is used to find the optimal impedance parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed method was tested through dynamic simulations of various contact tasks. The simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method optimizes the performance of the contact tasks in uncertain conditions of the environment.

Reduced-order dynamic output feedback control of uncertain discrete-time Markov jump linear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morais, Cecília F.; Braga, Márcio F.; Oliveira, Ricardo C. L. F.; Peres, Pedro L. D.

2017-11-01

This paper deals with the problem of designing reduced-order robust dynamic output feedback controllers for discrete-time Markov jump linear systems (MJLS) with polytopic state space matrices and uncertain transition probabilities. Starting from a full order, mode-dependent and polynomially parameter-dependent dynamic output feedback controller, sufficient linear matrix inequality based conditions are provided for the existence of a robust reduced-order dynamic output feedback stabilising controller with complete, partial or none mode dependency assuring an upper bound to the ? or the ? norm of the closed-loop system. The main advantage of the proposed method when compared to the existing approaches is the fact that the dynamic controllers are exclusively expressed in terms of the decision variables of the problem. In other words, the matrices that define the controller realisation do not depend explicitly on the state space matrices associated with the modes of the MJLS. As a consequence, the method is specially suitable to handle order reduction or cluster availability constraints in the context of ? or ? dynamic output feedback control of discrete-time MJLS. Additionally, as illustrated by means of numerical examples, the proposed approach can provide less conservative results than other conditions in the literature.

Robust optimization of supersonic ORC nozzle guide vanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bufi, Elio A.; Cinnella, Paola

2017-03-01

An efficient Robust Optimization (RO) strategy is developed for the design of 2D supersonic Organic Rankine Cycle turbine expanders. The dense gas effects are not-negligible for this application and they are taken into account describing the thermodynamics by means of the Peng-Robinson-Stryjek-Vera equation of state. The design methodology combines an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) loop based on a Bayesian kriging model of the system response to the uncertain parameters, used to approximate statistics (mean and variance) of the uncertain system output, a CFD solver, and a multi-objective non-dominated sorting algorithm (NSGA), also based on a Kriging surrogate of the multi-objective fitness function, along with an adaptive infill strategy for surrogate enrichment at each generation of the NSGA. The objective functions are the average and variance of the isentropic efficiency. The blade shape is parametrized by means of a Free Form Deformation (FFD) approach. The robust optimal blades are compared to the baseline design (based on the Method of Characteristics) and to a blade obtained by means of a deterministic CFD-based optimization.

Mechanical Properties of EPON 826/DEA Epoxy

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-26

Eβ ( ε̇− ε̇pβ ) . (5b) Equations (2) and (5) are solved simultaneously as a system of time-dependant differential equations to determine the stress in...this implies that estimates of these underlying physical parameters are highly uncertain but also has a weak effect on the stress -strain relationships...20), 4923–4928 (1998) Chou, S.C., Robertson, K.D., et al.: The effect of strain rate and heat developed during deformation on the stress -strain curve

Probabilistic assessment of the dynamic interaction between multiple pedestrians and vertical vibrations of footbridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tubino, Federica

2018-03-01

The effect of human-structure interaction in the vertical direction for footbridges is studied based on a probabilistic approach. The bridge is modeled as a continuous dynamic system, while pedestrians are schematized as moving single-degree-of-freedom systems with random dynamic properties. The non-dimensional form of the equations of motion allows us to obtain results that can be applied in a very wide set of cases. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation campaign is performed, varying the main non-dimensional parameters identified, and the mean values and coefficients of variation of the damping ratio and of the non-dimensional natural frequency of the coupled system are reported. The results obtained can be interpreted from two different points of view. If the characterization of pedestrians' equivalent dynamic parameters is assumed as uncertain, as revealed from a current literature review, then the paper provides a range of possible variations of the coupled system damping ratio and natural frequency as a function of pedestrians' parameters. Assuming that a reliable characterization of pedestrians' dynamic parameters is available (which is not the case at present, but could be in the future), the results presented can be adopted to estimate the damping ratio and natural frequency of the coupled footbridge-pedestrian system for a very wide range of real structures.

Attitude/attitude-rate estimation from GPS differential phase measurements using integrated-rate parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshman, Yaakov; Markley, Landis

1998-01-01

A sequential filtering algorithm is presented for attitude and attitude-rate estimation from Global Positioning System (GPS) differential carrier phase measurements. A third-order, minimal-parameter method for solving the attitude matrix kinematic equation is used to parameterize the filter's state, which renders the resulting estimator computationally efficient. Borrowing from tracking theory concepts, the angular acceleration is modeled as an exponentially autocorrelated stochastic process, thus avoiding the use of the uncertain spacecraft dynamic model. The new formulation facilitates the use of aiding vector observations in a unified filtering algorithm, which can enhance the method's robustness and accuracy. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the method.

Compressed sampling and dictionary learning framework for wavelength-division-multiplexing-based distributed fiber sensing.

PubMed

Weiss, Christian; Zoubir, Abdelhak M

2017-05-01

We propose a compressed sampling and dictionary learning framework for fiber-optic sensing using wavelength-tunable lasers. A redundant dictionary is generated from a model for the reflected sensor signal. Imperfect prior knowledge is considered in terms of uncertain local and global parameters. To estimate a sparse representation and the dictionary parameters, we present an alternating minimization algorithm that is equipped with a preprocessing routine to handle dictionary coherence. The support of the obtained sparse signal indicates the reflection delays, which can be used to measure impairments along the sensing fiber. The performance is evaluated by simulations and experimental data for a fiber sensor system with common core architecture.

Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

2018-01-01

Modeling net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at the regional scale with land surface models (LSMs) is relevant for the estimation of regional carbon balances, but studies on it are very limited. Furthermore, it is essential to better understand and quantify the uncertainty of LSMs in order to improve them. An important key variable in this respect is the prognostic leaf area index (LAI), which is very sensitive to forcing data and strongly affects the modeled NEE. We applied the Community Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) to the Rur catchment in western Germany and compared estimated and default ecological key parameters for modeling carbon fluxes and LAI. The parameter estimates were previously estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach DREAM(zs) for four of the most widespread plant functional types in the catchment. It was found that the catchment-scale annual NEE was strongly positive with default parameter values but negative (and closer to observations) with the estimated values. Thus, the estimation of CLM parameters with local NEE observations can be highly relevant when determining regional carbon balances. To obtain a more comprehensive picture of model uncertainty, CLM ensembles were set up with perturbed meteorological input and uncertain initial states in addition to uncertain parameters. C3 grass and C3 crops were particularly sensitive to the perturbed meteorological input, which resulted in a strong increase in the standard deviation of the annual NEE sum (σ ∑ NEE) for the different ensemble members from ˜ 2 to 3 g C m-2 yr-1 (with uncertain parameters) to ˜ 45 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 grass) and ˜ 75 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 crops) with perturbed forcings. This increase in uncertainty is related to the impact of the meteorological forcings on leaf onset and senescence, and enhanced/reduced drought stress related to perturbation of precipitation. The NEE uncertainty for the forest plant functional type (PFT) was considerably lower (σ ∑ NEE ˜ 4.0-13.5 g C m-2 yr-1 with perturbed parameters, meteorological forcings and initial states). We conclude that LAI and NEE uncertainty with CLM is clearly underestimated if uncertain meteorological forcings and initial states are not taken into account.

Robust synergetic control design under inputs and states constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastegar, Saeid; Araújo, Rui; Sadati, Jalil

2018-03-01

In this paper, a novel robust-constrained control methodology for discrete-time linear parameter-varying (DT-LPV) systems is proposed based on a synergetic control theory (SCT) approach. It is shown that in DT-LPV systems without uncertainty, and for any unmeasured bounded additive disturbance, the proposed controller accomplishes the goal of stabilising the system by asymptotically driving the error of the controlled variable to a bounded set containing the origin and then maintaining it there. Moreover, given an uncertain DT-LPV system jointly subject to unmeasured and constrained additive disturbances, and constraints in states, input commands and reference signals (set points), then invariant set theory is used to find an appropriate polyhedral robust invariant region in which the proposed control framework is guaranteed to robustly stabilise the closed-loop system. Furthermore, this is achieved even for the case of varying non-zero control set points in such uncertain DT-LPV systems. The controller is characterised to have a simple structure leading to an easy implementation, and a non-complex design process. The effectiveness of the proposed method and the implications of the controller design on feasibility and closed-loop performance are demonstrated through application examples on the temperature control on a continuous-stirred tank reactor plant, on the control of a real-coupled DC motor plant, and on an open-loop unstable system example.

Stochastic analysis of uncertain thermal parameters for random thermal regime of frozen soil around a single freezing pipe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tao; Zhou, Guoqing; Wang, Jianzhou; Zhou, Lei

2018-03-01

The artificial ground freezing method (AGF) is widely used in civil and mining engineering, and the thermal regime of frozen soil around the freezing pipe affects the safety of design and construction. The thermal parameters can be truly random due to heterogeneity of the soil properties, which lead to the randomness of thermal regime of frozen soil around the freezing pipe. The purpose of this paper is to study the one-dimensional (1D) random thermal regime problem on the basis of a stochastic analysis model and the Monte Carlo (MC) method. Considering the uncertain thermal parameters of frozen soil as random variables, stochastic processes and random fields, the corresponding stochastic thermal regime of frozen soil around a single freezing pipe are obtained and analyzed. Taking the variability of each stochastic parameter into account individually, the influences of each stochastic thermal parameter on stochastic thermal regime are investigated. The results show that the mean temperatures of frozen soil around the single freezing pipe with three analogy method are the same while the standard deviations are different. The distributions of standard deviation have a great difference at different radial coordinate location and the larger standard deviations are mainly at the phase change area. The computed data with random variable method and stochastic process method have a great difference from the measured data while the computed data with random field method well agree with the measured data. Each uncertain thermal parameter has a different effect on the standard deviation of frozen soil temperature around the single freezing pipe. These results can provide a theoretical basis for the design and construction of AGF.

Sub-optimal control of fuzzy linear dynamical systems under granular differentiability concept.

PubMed

Mazandarani, Mehran; Pariz, Naser

2018-05-01

This paper deals with sub-optimal control of a fuzzy linear dynamical system. The aim is to keep the state variables of the fuzzy linear dynamical system close to zero in an optimal manner. In the fuzzy dynamical system, the fuzzy derivative is considered as the granular derivative; and all the coefficients and initial conditions can be uncertain. The criterion for assessing the optimality is regarded as a granular integral whose integrand is a quadratic function of the state variables and control inputs. Using the relative-distance-measure (RDM) fuzzy interval arithmetic and calculus of variations, the optimal control law is presented as the fuzzy state variables feedback. Since the optimal feedback gains are obtained as fuzzy functions, they need to be defuzzified. This will result in the sub-optimal control law. This paper also sheds light on the restrictions imposed by the approaches which are based on fuzzy standard interval arithmetic (FSIA), and use strongly generalized Hukuhara and generalized Hukuhara differentiability concepts for obtaining the optimal control law. The granular eigenvalues notion is also defined. Using an RLC circuit mathematical model, it is shown that, due to their unnatural behavior in the modeling phenomenon, the FSIA-based approaches may obtain some eigenvalues sets that might be different from the inherent eigenvalues set of the fuzzy dynamical system. This is, however, not the case with the approach proposed in this study. The notions of granular controllability and granular stabilizability of the fuzzy linear dynamical system are also presented in this paper. Moreover, a sub-optimal control for regulating a Boeing 747 in longitudinal direction with uncertain initial conditions and parameters is gained. In addition, an uncertain suspension system of one of the four wheels of a bus is regulated using the sub-optimal control introduced in this paper. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intelligent robust control for uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems and its application to robotic systems.

PubMed

Chang, Yeong-Chan

2005-12-01

This paper addresses the problem of designing adaptive fuzzy-based (or neural network-based) robust controls for a large class of uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems. This class of systems can be perturbed by plant uncertainties, unmodeled perturbations, and external disturbances. Nonlinear H(infinity) control technique incorporated with adaptive control technique and VSC technique is employed to construct the intelligent robust stabilization controller such that an H(infinity) control is achieved. The problem of the robust tracking control design for uncertain robotic systems is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed robust stabilization control scheme. Therefore, an intelligent robust tracking controller for uncertain robotic systems in the presence of high-degree uncertainties can easily be implemented. Its solution requires only to solve a linear algebraic matrix inequality and a satisfactorily transient and asymptotical tracking performance is guaranteed. A simulation example is made to confirm the performance of the developed control algorithms.

Linked Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration, and Uncertainty Analysis Using a System Dynamics Model for Stroke Comparative Effectiveness Research.

PubMed

Tian, Yuan; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Osgood, Nathaniel D; Eom, Kirsten; Matchar, David B

2016-11-01

As health services researchers and decision makers tackle more difficult problems using simulation models, the number of parameters and the corresponding degree of uncertainty have increased. This often results in reduced confidence in such complex models to guide decision making. To demonstrate a systematic approach of linked sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty analysis to improve confidence in complex models. Four techniques were integrated and applied to a System Dynamics stroke model of US veterans, which was developed to inform systemwide intervention and research planning: Morris method (sensitivity analysis), multistart Powell hill-climbing algorithm and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (calibration), and Monte Carlo simulation (uncertainty analysis). Of 60 uncertain parameters, sensitivity analysis identified 29 needing calibration, 7 that did not need calibration but significantly influenced key stroke outcomes, and 24 not influential to calibration or stroke outcomes that were fixed at their best guess values. One thousand alternative well-calibrated baselines were obtained to reflect calibration uncertainty and brought into uncertainty analysis. The initial stroke incidence rate among veterans was identified as the most influential uncertain parameter, for which further data should be collected. That said, accounting for current uncertainty, the analysis of 15 distinct prevention and treatment interventions provided a robust conclusion that hypertension control for all veterans would yield the largest gain in quality-adjusted life years. For complex health care models, a mixed approach was applied to examine the uncertainty surrounding key stroke outcomes and the robustness of conclusions. We demonstrate that this rigorous approach can be practical and advocate for such analysis to promote understanding of the limits of certainty in applying models to current decisions and to guide future data collection. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Hierarchical Multi-Model Approach for Uncertainty Segregation, Prioritization and Comparative Evaluation of Competing Modeling Propositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F. T.; Elshall, A. S.; Hanor, J. S.

2012-12-01

Subsurface modeling is challenging because of many possible competing propositions for each uncertain model component. How can we judge that we are selecting the correct proposition for an uncertain model component out of numerous competing propositions? How can we bridge the gap between synthetic mental principles such as mathematical expressions on one hand, and empirical observation such as observation data on the other hand when uncertainty exists on both sides? In this study, we introduce hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) as a multi-model (multi-proposition) framework to represent our current state of knowledge and decision for hydrogeological structure modeling. The HBMA framework allows for segregating and prioritizing different sources of uncertainty, and for comparative evaluation of competing propositions for each source of uncertainty. We applied the HBMA to a study of hydrostratigraphy and uncertainty propagation of the Southern Hills aquifer system in the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana. We used geophysical data for hydrogeological structure construction through indictor hydrostratigraphy method and used lithologic data from drillers' logs for model structure calibration. However, due to uncertainty in model data, structure and parameters, multiple possible hydrostratigraphic models were produced and calibrated. The study considered four sources of uncertainties. To evaluate mathematical structure uncertainty, the study considered three different variogram models and two geological stationarity assumptions. With respect to geological structure uncertainty, the study considered two geological structures with respect to the Denham Springs-Scotlandville fault. With respect to data uncertainty, the study considered two calibration data sets. These four sources of uncertainty with their corresponding competing modeling propositions resulted in 24 calibrated models. The results showed that by segregating different sources of uncertainty, HBMA analysis provided insights on uncertainty priorities and propagation. In addition, it assisted in evaluating the relative importance of competing modeling propositions for each uncertain model component. By being able to dissect the uncertain model components and provide weighted representation of the competing propositions for each uncertain model component based on the background knowledge, the HBMA functions as an epistemic framework for advancing knowledge about the system under study.

Self-tuning control algorithm design for vehicle adaptive cruise control system through real-time estimation of vehicle parameters and road grade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzbanrad, Javad; Tahbaz-zadeh Moghaddam, Iman

2016-09-01

The main purpose of this paper is to design a self-tuning control algorithm for an adaptive cruise control (ACC) system that can adapt its behaviour to variations of vehicle dynamics and uncertain road grade. To this aim, short-time linear quadratic form (STLQF) estimation technique is developed so as to track simultaneously the trend of the time-varying parameters of vehicle longitudinal dynamics with a small delay. These parameters are vehicle mass, road grade and aerodynamic drag-area coefficient. Next, the values of estimated parameters are used to tune the throttle and brake control inputs and to regulate the throttle/brake switching logic that governs the throttle and brake switching. The performance of the designed STLQF-based self-tuning control (STLQF-STC) algorithm for ACC system is compared with the conventional method based on fixed control structure regarding the speed/distance tracking control modes. Simulation results show that the proposed control algorithm improves the performance of throttle and brake controllers, providing more comfort while travelling, enhancing driving safety and giving a satisfactory performance in the presence of different payloads and road grade variations.

Development and Evaluation of Fault-Tolerant Flight Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Yong D.; Gupta, Kajal (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

The research is concerned with developing a new approach to enhancing fault tolerance of flight control systems. The original motivation for fault-tolerant control comes from the need for safe operation of control elements (e.g. actuators) in the event of hardware failures in high reliability systems. One such example is modem space vehicle subjected to actuator/sensor impairments. A major task in flight control is to revise the control policy to balance impairment detectability and to achieve sufficient robustness. This involves careful selection of types and parameters of the controllers and the impairment detecting filters used. It also involves a decision, upon the identification of some failures, on whether and how a control reconfiguration should take place in order to maintain a certain system performance level. In this project new flight dynamic model under uncertain flight conditions is considered, in which the effects of both ramp and jump faults are reflected. Stabilization algorithms based on neural network and adaptive method are derived. The control algorithms are shown to be effective in dealing with uncertain dynamics due to external disturbances and unpredictable faults. The overall strategy is easy to set up and the computation involved is much less as compared with other strategies. Computer simulation software is developed. A serious of simulation studies have been conducted with varying flight conditions.

Optimized pulses for the control of uncertain qubits

DOE PAGES

Grace, Matthew D.; Dominy, Jason M.; Witzel, Wayne M.; ...

2012-05-18

The construction of high-fidelity control fields that are robust to control, system, and/or surrounding environment uncertainties is a crucial objective for quantum information processing. Using the two-state Landau-Zener model for illustrative simulations of a controlled qubit, we generate optimal controls for π/2 and π pulses and investigate their inherent robustness to uncertainty in the magnitude of the drift Hamiltonian. Next, we construct a quantum-control protocol to improve system-drift robustness by combining environment-decoupling pulse criteria and optimal control theory for unitary operations. By perturbatively expanding the unitary time-evolution operator for an open quantum system, previous analysis of environment-decoupling control pulses hasmore » calculated explicit control-field criteria to suppress environment-induced errors up to (but not including) third order from π/2 and π pulses. We systematically integrate this criteria with optimal control theory, incorporating an estimate of the uncertain parameter to produce improvements in gate fidelity and robustness, demonstrated via a numerical example based on double quantum dot qubits. For the qubit model used in this work, postfacto analysis of the resulting controls suggests that realistic control-field fluctuations and noise may contribute just as significantly to gate errors as system and environment fluctuations.« less

Prediction-error variance in Bayesian model updating: a comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadollahi, Parisa; Li, Jian; Huang, Yong

2017-04-01

In Bayesian model updating, the likelihood function is commonly formulated by stochastic embedding in which the maximum information entropy probability model of prediction error variances plays an important role and it is Gaussian distribution subject to the first two moments as constraints. The selection of prediction error variances can be formulated as a model class selection problem, which automatically involves a trade-off between the average data-fit of the model class and the information it extracts from the data. Therefore, it is critical for the robustness in the updating of the structural model especially in the presence of modeling errors. To date, three ways of considering prediction error variances have been seem in the literature: 1) setting constant values empirically, 2) estimating them based on the goodness-of-fit of the measured data, and 3) updating them as uncertain parameters by applying Bayes' Theorem at the model class level. In this paper, the effect of different strategies to deal with the prediction error variances on the model updating performance is investigated explicitly. A six-story shear building model with six uncertain stiffness parameters is employed as an illustrative example. Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to draw samples of the posterior probability density function of the structure model parameters as well as the uncertain prediction variances. The different levels of modeling uncertainty and complexity are modeled through three FE models, including a true model, a model with more complexity, and a model with modeling error. Bayesian updating is performed for the three FE models considering the three aforementioned treatments of the prediction error variances. The effect of number of measurements on the model updating performance is also examined in the study. The results are compared based on model class assessment and indicate that updating the prediction error variances as uncertain parameters at the model class level produces more robust results especially when the number of measurement is small.

On-orbit calibration for star sensors without priori information.

PubMed

Zhang, Hao; Niu, Yanxiong; Lu, Jiazhen; Zhang, Chengfen; Yang, Yanqiang

2017-07-24

The star sensor is a prerequisite navigation device for a spacecraft. The on-orbit calibration is an essential guarantee for its operation performance. However, traditional calibration methods rely on ground information and are invalid without priori information. The uncertain on-orbit parameters will eventually influence the performance of guidance navigation and control system. In this paper, a novel calibration method without priori information for on-orbit star sensors is proposed. Firstly, the simplified back propagation neural network is designed for focal length and main point estimation along with system property evaluation, called coarse calibration. Then the unscented Kalman filter is adopted for the precise calibration of all parameters, including focal length, main point and distortion. The proposed method benefits from self-initialization and no attitude or preinstalled sensor parameter is required. Precise star sensor parameter estimation can be achieved without priori information, which is a significant improvement for on-orbit devices. Simulations and experiments results demonstrate that the calibration is easy for operation with high accuracy and robustness. The proposed method can satisfy the stringent requirement for most star sensors.

Final Report. Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Coles, T.; Spantini, A.

2013-09-30

The project was a collaborative effort among MIT, Sandia National Laboratories (local PI Dr. Habib Najm), the University of Southern California (local PI Prof. Roger Ghanem), and The Johns Hopkins University (local PI Prof. Omar Knio, now at Duke University). Our focus was the analysis and reduction of large-scale dynamical systems emerging from networks of interacting components. Such networks underlie myriad natural and engineered systems. Examples important to DOE include chemical models of energy conversion processes, and elements of national infrastructure—e.g., electric power grids. Time scales in chemical systems span orders of magnitude, while infrastructure networks feature both local andmore » long-distance connectivity, with associated clusters of time scales. These systems also blend continuous and discrete behavior; examples include saturation phenomena in surface chemistry and catalysis, and switching in electrical networks. Reducing size and stiffness is essential to tractable and predictive simulation of these systems. Computational singular perturbation (CSP) has been effectively used to identify and decouple dynamics at disparate time scales in chemical systems, allowing reduction of model complexity and stiffness. In realistic settings, however, model reduction must contend with uncertainties, which are often greatest in large-scale systems most in need of reduction. Uncertainty is not limited to parameters; one must also address structural uncertainties—e.g., whether a link is present in a network—and the impact of random perturbations, e.g., fluctuating loads or sources. Research under this project developed new methods for the analysis and reduction of complex multiscale networks under uncertainty, by combining computational singular perturbation (CSP) with probabilistic uncertainty quantification. CSP yields asymptotic approximations of reduceddimensionality “slow manifolds” on which a multiscale dynamical system evolves. Introducing uncertainty in this context raised fundamentally new issues, e.g., how is the topology of slow manifolds transformed by parametric uncertainty? How to construct dynamical models on these uncertain manifolds? To address these questions, we used stochastic spectral polynomial chaos (PC) methods to reformulate uncertain network models and analyzed them using CSP in probabilistic terms. Finding uncertain manifolds involved the solution of stochastic eigenvalue problems, facilitated by projection onto PC bases. These problems motivated us to explore the spectral properties stochastic Galerkin systems. We also introduced novel methods for rank-reduction in stochastic eigensystems—transformations of a uncertain dynamical system that lead to lower storage and solution complexity. These technical accomplishments are detailed below. This report focuses on the MIT portion of the joint project.« less

Data-based fault-tolerant control of high-speed trains with traction/braking notch nonlinearities and actuator failures.

PubMed

Song, Qi; Song, Yong-Duan

2011-12-01

This paper investigates the position and velocity tracking control problem of high-speed trains with multiple vehicles connected through couplers. A dynamic model reflecting nonlinear and elastic impacts between adjacent vehicles as well as traction/braking nonlinearities and actuation faults is derived. Neuroadaptive fault-tolerant control algorithms are developed to account for various factors such as input nonlinearities, actuator failures, and uncertain impacts of in-train forces in the system simultaneously. The resultant control scheme is essentially independent of system model and is primarily data-driven because with the appropriate input-output data, the proposed control algorithms are capable of automatically generating the intermediate control parameters, neuro-weights, and the compensation signals, literally producing the traction/braking force based upon input and response data only--the whole process does not require precise information on system model or system parameter, nor human intervention. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is also confirmed through numerical simulations.

Technical notes and correspondence: Stochastic robustness of linear time-invariant control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengel, Robert F.; Ray, Laura R.

1991-01-01

A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of a linear time-invariant system is described. Monte Carlo evaluations of the system's eigenvalues allows the probability of instability and the related stochastic root locus to be estimated. This analysis approach treats not only Gaussian parameter uncertainties but non-Gaussian cases, including uncertain-but-bounded variation. Confidence intervals for the scalar probability of instability address computational issues inherent in Monte Carlo simulation. Trivial extensions of the procedure admit consideration of alternate discriminants; thus, the probabilities that stipulated degrees of instability will be exceeded or that closed-loop roots will leave desirable regions can also be estimated. Results are particularly amenable to graphical presentation.

A methodology for formulating a minimal uncertainty model for robust control system design and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Chang, B.-C.; Fischl, Robert

1989-01-01

In the design and analysis of robust control systems for uncertain plants, the technique of formulating what is termed an M-delta model has become widely accepted and applied in the robust control literature. The M represents the transfer function matrix M(s) of the nominal system, and delta represents an uncertainty matrix acting on M(s). The uncertainty can arise from various sources, such as structured uncertainty from parameter variations or multiple unstructured uncertainties from unmodeled dynamics and other neglected phenomena. In general, delta is a block diagonal matrix, and for real parameter variations the diagonal elements are real. As stated in the literature, this structure can always be formed for any linear interconnection of inputs, outputs, transfer functions, parameter variations, and perturbations. However, very little of the literature addresses methods for obtaining this structure, and none of this literature addresses a general methodology for obtaining a minimal M-delta model for a wide class of uncertainty. Since have a delta matrix of minimum order would improve the efficiency of structured singular value (or multivariable stability margin) computations, a method of obtaining a minimal M-delta model would be useful. A generalized method of obtaining a minimal M-delta structure for systems with real parameter variations is given.

Coastal aquifer management under parameter uncertainty: Ensemble surrogate modeling based simulation-optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardhanan, S.; Datta, B.

2011-12-01

Surrogate models are widely used to develop computationally efficient simulation-optimization models to solve complex groundwater management problems. Artificial intelligence based models are most often used for this purpose where they are trained using predictor-predictand data obtained from a numerical simulation model. Most often this is implemented with the assumption that the parameters and boundary conditions used in the numerical simulation model are perfectly known. However, in most practical situations these values are uncertain. Under these circumstances the application of such approximation surrogates becomes limited. In our study we develop a surrogate model based coupled simulation optimization methodology for determining optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers considering parameter uncertainty. An ensemble surrogate modeling approach is used along with multiple realization optimization. The methodology is used to solve a multi-objective coastal aquifer management problem considering two conflicting objectives. Hydraulic conductivity and the aquifer recharge are considered as uncertain values. Three dimensional coupled flow and transport simulation model FEMWATER is used to simulate the aquifer responses for a number of scenarios corresponding to Latin hypercube samples of pumping and uncertain parameters to generate input-output patterns for training the surrogate models. Non-parametric bootstrap sampling of this original data set is used to generate multiple data sets which belong to different regions in the multi-dimensional decision and parameter space. These data sets are used to train and test multiple surrogate models based on genetic programming. The ensemble of surrogate models is then linked to a multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the pumping optimization problem. Two conflicting objectives, viz, maximizing total pumping from beneficial wells and minimizing the total pumping from barrier wells for hydraulic control of saltwater intrusion are considered. The salinity levels resulting at strategic locations due to these pumping are predicted using the ensemble surrogates and are constrained to be within pre-specified levels. Different realizations of the concentration values are obtained from the ensemble predictions corresponding to each candidate solution of pumping. Reliability concept is incorporated as the percent of the total number of surrogate models which satisfy the imposed constraints. The methodology was applied to a realistic coastal aquifer system in Burdekin delta area in Australia. It was found that all optimal solutions corresponding to a reliability level of 0.99 satisfy all the constraints and as reducing reliability level decreases the constraint violation increases. Thus ensemble surrogate model based simulation-optimization was found to be useful in deriving multi-objective optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers under parameter uncertainty.

Application of empirical and dynamical closure methods to simple climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla, Lauren Elizabeth

This dissertation applies empirically- and physically-based methods for closure of uncertain parameters and processes to three model systems that lie on the simple end of climate model complexity. Each model isolates one of three sources of closure uncertainty: uncertain observational data, large dimension, and wide ranging length scales. They serve as efficient test systems toward extension of the methods to more realistic climate models. The empirical approach uses the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) to estimate the transient climate sensitivity (TCS) parameter in a globally-averaged energy balance model. Uncertainty in climate forcing and historical temperature make TCS difficult to determine. A range of probabilistic estimates of TCS computed for various assumptions about past forcing and natural variability corroborate ranges reported in the IPCC AR4 found by different means. Also computed are estimates of how quickly uncertainty in TCS may be expected to diminish in the future as additional observations become available. For higher system dimensions the UKF approach may become prohibitively expensive. A modified UKF algorithm is developed in which the error covariance is represented by a reduced-rank approximation, substantially reducing the number of model evaluations required to provide probability densities for unknown parameters. The method estimates the state and parameters of an abstract atmospheric model, known as Lorenz 96, with accuracy close to that of a full-order UKF for 30-60% rank reduction. The physical approach to closure uses the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) to demonstrate closure of small-scale, nonlinear processes that would not be resolved directly in climate models. A one-dimensional, abstract test model with a broad spatial spectrum is developed. The test model couples the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation to a transport equation that includes cloud formation and precipitation-like processes. In the test model, three main sources of MMF error are evaluated independently. Loss of nonlinear multi-scale interactions and periodic boundary conditions in closure models were dominant sources of error. Using a reduced order modeling approach to maximize energy content allowed reduction of the closure model dimension up to 75% without loss in accuracy. MMF and a comparable alternative model peformed equally well compared to direct numerical simulation.

Vector Observation-Aided/Attitude-Rate Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshman, Yaakov; Markley, F. Landis

1997-01-01

A sequential filtering algorithm is presented for attitude and attitude-rate estimation from Global Positioning System (GPS) differential carrier phase measurements. A third-order, minimal-parameter method for solving the attitude matrix kinematic equation is used to parameterize the filter's state, which renders the resulting estimator computationally efficient. Borrowing from tracking theory concepts, the angular acceleration is modeled as an exponentially autocorrelated stochastic process, thus avoiding the use of the uncertain spacecraft dynamic model. The new formulation facilitates the use of aiding vector observations in a unified filtering algorithm, which can enhance the method's robustness and accuracy. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the method.

Direct Adaptive Control of Systems with Actuator Failures: State of the Art and Continuing Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Gang; Joshi, Suresh M.

2008-01-01

In this paper, the problem of controlling systems with failures and faults is introduced, and an overview of recent work on direct adaptive control for compensation of uncertain actuator failures is presented. Actuator failures may be characterized by some unknown system inputs being stuck at some unknown (fixed or varying) values at unknown time instants, that cannot be influenced by the control signals. The key task of adaptive compensation is to design the control signals in such a manner that the remaining actuators can automatically and seamlessly take over for the failed ones, and achieve desired stability and asymptotic tracking. A certain degree of redundancy is necessary to accomplish failure compensation. The objective of adaptive control design is to effectively use the available actuation redundancy to handle failures without the knowledge of the failure patterns, parameters, and time of occurrence. This is a challenging problem because failures introduce large uncertainties in the dynamic structure of the system, in addition to parametric uncertainties and unknown disturbances. The paper addresses some theoretical issues in adaptive actuator failure compensation: actuator failure modeling, redundant actuation requirements, plant-model matching, error system dynamics, adaptation laws, and stability, tracking, and performance analysis. Adaptive control designs can be shown to effectively handle uncertain actuator failures without explicit failure detection. Some open technical challenges and research problems in this important research area are discussed.

A robust momentum management and attitude control system for the space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Speyer, J. L.; Rhee, Ihnseok

1991-01-01

A game theoretic controller is synthesized for momentum management and attitude control of the Space Station in the presence of uncertainties in the moments of inertia. Full state information is assumed since attitude rates are assumed to be very assurately measured. By an input-output decomposition of the uncertainty in the system matrices, the parameter uncertainties in the dynamic system are represented as an unknown gain associated with an internal feedback loop (IFL). The input and output matrices associated with the IFL form directions through which the uncertain parameters affect system response. If the quadratic form of the IFL output augments the cost criterion, then enhanced parameter robustness is anticipated. By considering the input and the input disturbance from the IFL as two noncooperative players, a linear-quadratic differential game is constructed. The solution in the form of a linear controller is used for synthesis. Inclusion of the external disturbance torques results in a dynamic feedback controller which consists of conventional PID (proportional integral derivative) control and cyclic disturbance rejection filters. It is shown that the game theoretic design allows large variations in the inertias in directions of importance.

Robust momentum management and attitude control system for the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhee, Ihnseok; Speyer, Jason L.

1992-01-01

A game theoretic controller is synthesized for momentum management and attitude control of the Space Station in the presence of uncertainties in the moments of inertia. Full state information is assumed since attitude rates are assumed to be very accurately measured. By an input-output decomposition of the uncertainty in the system matrices, the parameter uncertainties in the dynamic system are represented as an unknown gain associated with an internal feedback loop (IFL). The input and output matrices associated with the IFL form directions through which the uncertain parameters affect system response. If the quadratic form of the IFL output augments the cost criterion, then enhanced parameter robustness is anticipated. By considering the input and the input disturbance from the IFL as two noncooperative players, a linear-quadratic differential game is constructed. The solution in the form of a linear controller is used for synthesis. Inclusion of the external disturbance torques results in a dynamic feedback controller which consists of conventional PID (proportional integral derivative) control and cyclic disturbance rejection filters. It is shown that the game theoretic design allows large variations in the inertias in directions of importance.

Influences of system uncertainties on the numerical transfer path analysis of engine systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acri, A.; Nijman, E.; Acri, A.; Offner, G.

2017-10-01

Practical mechanical systems operate with some degree of uncertainty. In numerical models uncertainties can result from poorly known or variable parameters, from geometrical approximation, from discretization or numerical errors, from uncertain inputs or from rapidly changing forcing that can be best described in a stochastic framework. Recently, random matrix theory was introduced to take parameter uncertainties into account in numerical modeling problems. In particular in this paper, Wishart random matrix theory is applied on a multi-body dynamic system to generate random variations of the properties of system components. Multi-body dynamics is a powerful numerical tool largely implemented during the design of new engines. In this paper the influence of model parameter variability on the results obtained from the multi-body simulation of engine dynamics is investigated. The aim is to define a methodology to properly assess and rank system sources when dealing with uncertainties. Particular attention is paid to the influence of these uncertainties on the analysis and the assessment of the different engine vibration sources. Examples of the effects of different levels of uncertainties are illustrated by means of examples using a representative numerical powertrain model. A numerical transfer path analysis, based on system dynamic substructuring, is used to derive and assess the internal engine vibration sources. The results obtained from this analysis are used to derive correlations between parameter uncertainties and statistical distribution of results. The derived statistical information can be used to advance the knowledge of the multi-body analysis and the assessment of system sources when uncertainties in model parameters are considered.

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary.

A new delay-independent condition for global robust stability of neural networks with time delays.

PubMed

Samli, Ruya

2015-06-01

This paper studies the problem of robust stability of dynamical neural networks with discrete time delays under the assumptions that the network parameters of the neural system are uncertain and norm-bounded, and the activation functions are slope-bounded. By employing the results of Lyapunov stability theory and matrix theory, new sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for delayed neural networks are presented. The results reported in this paper can be easily tested by checking some special properties of symmetric matrices associated with the parameter uncertainties of neural networks. We also present a numerical example to show the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous state-parameter estimation supports the evaluation of data assimilation performance and measurement design for soil-water-atmosphere-plant system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shun; Shi, Liangsheng; Zha, Yuanyuan; Williams, Mathew; Lin, Lin

2017-12-01

Improvements to agricultural water and crop managements require detailed information on crop and soil states, and their evolution. Data assimilation provides an attractive way of obtaining these information by integrating measurements with model in a sequential manner. However, data assimilation for soil-water-atmosphere-plant (SWAP) system is still lack of comprehensive exploration due to a large number of variables and parameters in the system. In this study, simultaneous state-parameter estimation using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was employed to evaluate the data assimilation performance and provide advice on measurement design for SWAP system. The results demonstrated that a proper selection of state vector is critical to effective data assimilation. Especially, updating the development stage was able to avoid the negative effect of ;phenological shift;, which was caused by the contrasted phenological stage in different ensemble members. Simultaneous state-parameter estimation (SSPE) assimilation strategy outperformed updating-state-only (USO) assimilation strategy because of its ability to alleviate the inconsistency between model variables and parameters. However, the performance of SSPE assimilation strategy could deteriorate with an increasing number of uncertain parameters as a result of soil stratification and limited knowledge on crop parameters. In addition to the most easily available surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) measurements, deep soil moisture, grain yield or other auxiliary data were required to provide sufficient constraints on parameter estimation and to assure the data assimilation performance. This study provides an insight into the response of soil moisture and grain yield to data assimilation in SWAP system and is helpful for soil moisture movement and crop growth modeling and measurement design in practice.

Consideration effect of wind farms on the network reconfiguration in the distribution systems in an uncertain environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Kianoosh; Kavousifard, Farzaneh; Abbasi, Alireza

2017-09-01

This article proposes a novel probabilistic Distribution Feeder Reconfiguration (DFR) based method to consider the uncertainty impacts into account with high accuracy. In order to achieve the set aim, different scenarios are generated to demonstrate the degree of uncertainty in the investigated elements which are known as the active and reactive load consumption and the active power generation of the wind power units. Notably, a normal Probability Density Function (PDF) based on the desired accuracy is divided into several class intervals for each uncertain parameter. Besides, the Weiball PDF is utilised for modelling wind generators and taking the variation impacts of the power production in wind generators. The proposed problem is solved based on Fuzzy Adaptive Modified Particle Swarm Optimisation to find the most optimal switching scheme during the Multi-objective DFR. Moreover, this paper holds two suggestions known as new mutation methods to adjust the inertia weight of PSO by the fuzzy rules to enhance its ability in global searching within the entire search space.

First-passage problems: A probabilistic dynamic analysis for degraded structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

1990-01-01

Structures subjected to random excitations with uncertain system parameters degraded by surrounding environments (a random time history) are studied. Methods are developed to determine the statistics of dynamic responses, such as the time-varying mean, the standard deviation, the autocorrelation functions, and the joint probability density function of any response and its derivative. Moreover, the first-passage problems with deterministic and stationary/evolutionary random barriers are evaluated. The time-varying (joint) mean crossing rate and the probability density function of the first-passage time for various random barriers are derived.

Note: Model-based identification method of a cable-driven wearable device for arm rehabilitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xiang; Chen, Weihai; Zhang, Jianbin; Wang, Jianhua

2015-09-01

Cable-driven exoskeletons have used active cables to actuate the system and are worn on subjects to provide motion assistance. However, this kind of wearable devices usually contains uncertain kinematic parameters. In this paper, a model-based identification method has been proposed for a cable-driven arm exoskeleton to estimate its uncertainties. The identification method is based on the linearized error model derived from the kinematics of the exoskeleton. Experiment has been conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model-based method in practical application.

Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu

Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This papermore » presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.« less

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-01-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-07-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

Robust design optimization using the price of robustness, robust least squares and regularization methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bukhari, Hassan J.

2017-12-01

In this paper a framework for robust optimization of mechanical design problems and process systems that have parametric uncertainty is presented using three different approaches. Robust optimization problems are formulated so that the optimal solution is robust which means it is minimally sensitive to any perturbations in parameters. The first method uses the price of robustness approach which assumes the uncertain parameters to be symmetric and bounded. The robustness for the design can be controlled by limiting the parameters that can perturb.The second method uses the robust least squares method to determine the optimal parameters when data itself is subjected to perturbations instead of the parameters. The last method manages uncertainty by restricting the perturbation on parameters to improve sensitivity similar to Tikhonov regularization. The methods are implemented on two sets of problems; one linear and the other non-linear. This methodology will be compared with a prior method using multiple Monte Carlo simulation runs which shows that the approach being presented in this paper results in better performance.

The Impact of Uncertain Physical Parameters on HVAC Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Yannan; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Lu, Shuai

HVAC units are currently one of the major resources providing demand response (DR) in residential buildings. Models of HVAC with DR function can improve understanding of its impact on power system operations and facilitate the deployment of DR technologies. This paper investigates the importance of various physical parameters and their distributions to the HVAC response to DR signals, which is a key step to the construction of HVAC models for a population of units with insufficient data. These parameters include the size of floors, insulation efficiency, the amount of solid mass in the house, and efficiency of the HVAC units.more » These parameters are usually assumed to follow Gaussian or Uniform distributions. We study the effect of uncertainty in the chosen parameter distributions on the aggregate HVAC response to DR signals, during transient phase and in steady state. We use a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method with linear regression and Prony analysis to evaluate sensitivity of DR output to the uncertainty in the distribution parameters. The significance ranking on the uncertainty sources is given for future guidance in the modeling of HVAC demand response.« less

Adaptive Fault-Tolerant Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Large-Scale Systems With Unknown Dead Zone.

PubMed

Chen, Mou; Tao, Gang

2016-08-01

In this paper, an adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme is proposed and analyzed for a class of uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems with unknown dead zone and external disturbances. To tackle the unknown nonlinear interaction functions in the large-scale system, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is employed to approximate them. To further handle the unknown approximation errors and the effects of the unknown dead zone and external disturbances, integrated as the compounded disturbances, the corresponding disturbance observers are developed for their estimations. Based on the outputs of the RBFNN and the disturbance observer, the adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme is designed for uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems by using a decentralized backstepping technique. The closed-loop stability of the adaptive control system is rigorously proved via Lyapunov analysis and the satisfactory tracking performance is achieved under the integrated effects of unknown dead zone, actuator fault, and unknown external disturbances. Simulation results of a mass-spring-damper system are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive neural fault-tolerant control scheme for uncertain nonlinear large-scale systems.

A two-parameter scintillation spectrometer system for measurement of secondary proton, deuteron, and triton distributions from materials under 558-MeV-proton irradiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beck, S. M.

1975-01-01

A two-parameter scintillation spectrometer system developed and used to obtain proton, deuteron, and triton double differential cross sections from materials under 558-MeV-proton irradiation is described. The system measures both the time of flight of secondary particles over a 488-cm flight path and the energy deposited in a scintillator, 12.7 cm in diameter and 30.48 cm long. The time resolution of the system is 0.39 nsec. The calculated energy resolution based on this time resolution varies with energy from 1.6 precent to 7.75 percent for 50- and 558-MeV protons. Various systematic and statistical errors are evaluated, and the double differential cross sections for secondary proton and deutron production at 20 deg from a 2.35 g/sq cm thick beryllium target are shown as an example of the results obtainable with this system. The uncertainly in the cross sections for secondary protons varies with particle energy from approximately + or - 9 percent at 50 MeV to approximately + or - 11 percent at 558 MeV.

Fuzzy adaptive strong tracking scaled unscented Kalman filter for initial alignment of large misalignment angles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jing; Song, Ningfang; Yang, Gongliu; Jiang, Rui

2016-07-01

In the initial alignment process of strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS), large misalignment angles always bring nonlinear problem, which can usually be processed using the scaled unscented Kalman filter (SUKF). In this paper, the problem of large misalignment angles in SINS alignment is further investigated, and the strong tracking scaled unscented Kalman filter (STSUKF) is proposed with fixed parameters to improve convergence speed, while these parameters are artificially constructed and uncertain in real application. To further improve the alignment stability and reduce the parameters selection, this paper proposes a fuzzy adaptive strategy combined with STSUKF (FUZZY-STSUKF). As a result, initial alignment scheme of large misalignment angles based on FUZZY-STSUKF is designed and verified by simulations and turntable experiment. The results show that the scheme improves the accuracy and convergence speed of SINS initial alignment compared with those based on SUKF and STSUKF.

Assessing risk based on uncertain avalanche activity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeidler, Antonia; Fromm, Reinhard

2015-04-01

Avalanches may affect critical infrastructure and may cause great economic losses. The planning horizon of infrastructures, e.g. hydropower generation facilities, reaches well into the future. Based on the results of previous studies on the effect of changing meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature) and the effect on avalanche activity we assume that there will be a change of the risk pattern in future. The decision makers need to understand what the future might bring to best formulate their mitigation strategies. Therefore, we explore a commercial risk software to calculate risk for the coming years that might help in decision processes. The software @risk, is known to many larger companies, and therefore we explore its capabilities to include avalanche risk simulations in order to guarantee a comparability of different risks. In a first step, we develop a model for a hydropower generation facility that reflects the problem of changing avalanche activity patterns in future by selecting relevant input parameters and assigning likely probability distributions. The uncertain input variables include the probability of avalanches affecting an object, the vulnerability of an object, the expected costs for repairing the object and the expected cost due to interruption. The crux is to find the distribution that best represents the input variables under changing meteorological conditions. Our focus is on including the uncertain probability of avalanches based on the analysis of past avalanche data and expert knowledge. In order to explore different likely outcomes we base the analysis on three different climate scenarios (likely, worst case, baseline). For some variables, it is possible to fit a distribution to historical data, whereas in cases where the past dataset is insufficient or not available the software allows to select from over 30 different distribution types. The Monte Carlo simulation uses the probability distribution of uncertain variables using all valid combinations of the values of input variables to simulate all possible outcomes. In our case the output is the expected risk (Euro/year) for each object (e.g. water intake) considered and the entire hydropower generation system. The output is again a distribution that is interpreted by the decision makers as the final strategy depends on the needs and requirements of the end-user, which may be driven by personal preferences. In this presentation, we will show a way on how we used the uncertain information on avalanche activity in future to subsequently use it in a commercial risk software and therefore bringing the knowledge of natural hazard experts to decision makers.

Integration of Online Parameter Identification and Neural Network for In-Flight Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hageman, Jacob J.; Smith, Mark S.; Stachowiak, Susan

2003-01-01

An indirect adaptive system has been constructed for robust control of an aircraft with uncertain aerodynamic characteristics. This system consists of a multilayer perceptron pre-trained neural network, online stability and control derivative identification, a dynamic cell structure online learning neural network, and a model following control system based on the stochastic optimal feedforward and feedback technique. The pre-trained neural network and model following control system have been flight-tested, but the online parameter identification and online learning neural network are new additions used for in-flight adaptation of the control system model. A description of the modification and integration of these two stand-alone software packages into the complete system in preparation for initial flight tests is presented. Open-loop results using both simulation and flight data, as well as closed-loop performance of the complete system in a nonlinear, six-degree-of-freedom, flight validated simulation, are analyzed. Results show that this online learning system, in contrast to the nonlearning system, has the ability to adapt to changes in aerodynamic characteristics in a real-time, closed-loop, piloted simulation, resulting in improved flying qualities.

In-hardware demonstration of model-independent adaptive tuning of noisy systems with arbitrary phase drift

DOE PAGES

Scheinker, Alexander; Baily, Scott; Young, Daniel; ...

2014-08-01

In this work, an implementation of a recently developed model-independent adaptive control scheme, for tuning uncertain and time varying systems, is demonstrated on the Los Alamos linear particle accelerator. The main benefits of the algorithm are its simplicity, ability to handle an arbitrary number of components without increased complexity, and the approach is extremely robust to measurement noise, a property which is both analytically proven and demonstrated in the experiments performed. We report on the application of this algorithm for simultaneous tuning of two buncher radio frequency (RF) cavities, in order to maximize beam acceptance into the accelerating electromagnetic fieldmore » cavities of the machine, with the tuning based only on a noisy measurement of the surviving beam current downstream from the two bunching cavities. The algorithm automatically responds to arbitrary phase shift of the cavity phases, automatically re-tuning the cavity settings and maximizing beam acceptance. Because it is model independent it can be utilized for continuous adaptation to time-variation of a large system, such as due to thermal drift, or damage to components, in which the remaining, functional components would be automatically re-tuned to compensate for the failing ones. We start by discussing the general model-independent adaptive scheme and how it may be digitally applied to a large class of multi-parameter uncertain systems, and then present our experimental results.« less

Adaptive suboptimal second-order sliding mode control for microgrids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Incremona, Gian Paolo; Cucuzzella, Michele; Ferrara, Antonella

2016-09-01

This paper deals with the design of adaptive suboptimal second-order sliding mode (ASSOSM) control laws for grid-connected microgrids. Due to the presence of the inverter, of unpredicted load changes, of switching among different renewable energy sources, and of electrical parameters variations, the microgrid model is usually affected by uncertain terms which are bounded, but with unknown upper bounds. To theoretically frame the control problem, the class of second-order systems in Brunovsky canonical form, characterised by the presence of matched uncertain terms with unknown bounds, is first considered. Four adaptive strategies are designed, analysed and compared to select the most effective ones to be applied to the microgrid case study. In the first two strategies, the control amplitude is continuously adjusted, so as to arrive at dominating the effect of the uncertainty on the controlled system. When a suitable control amplitude is attained, the origin of the state space of the auxiliary system becomes attractive. In the other two strategies, a suitable blend between two components, one mainly working during the reaching phase, the other being the predominant one in a vicinity of the sliding manifold, is generated, so as to reduce the control amplitude in steady state. The microgrid system in a grid-connected operation mode, controlled via the selected ASSOSM control strategies, exhibits appreciable stability properties, as proved theoretically and shown in simulation.

Fuzzy interval Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis for mid-frequency analysis of built-up systems with mixed fuzzy and interval parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Hui; Yu, Dejie; Yin, Shengwen; Xia, Baizhan

2016-10-01

This paper introduces mixed fuzzy and interval parametric uncertainties into the FE components of the hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FE/SEA) model for mid-frequency analysis of built-up systems, thus an uncertain ensemble combining non-parametric with mixed fuzzy and interval parametric uncertainties comes into being. A fuzzy interval Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FIFE/SEA) framework is proposed to obtain the uncertain responses of built-up systems, which are described as intervals with fuzzy bounds, termed as fuzzy-bounded intervals (FBIs) in this paper. Based on the level-cut technique, a first-order fuzzy interval perturbation FE/SEA (FFIPFE/SEA) and a second-order fuzzy interval perturbation FE/SEA method (SFIPFE/SEA) are developed to handle the mixed parametric uncertainties efficiently. FFIPFE/SEA approximates the response functions by the first-order Taylor series, while SFIPFE/SEA improves the accuracy by considering the second-order items of Taylor series, in which all the mixed second-order items are neglected. To further improve the accuracy, a Chebyshev fuzzy interval method (CFIM) is proposed, in which the Chebyshev polynomials is used to approximate the response functions. The FBIs are eventually reconstructed by assembling the extrema solutions at all cut levels. Numerical results on two built-up systems verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Model-independent particle accelerator tuning

DOE PAGES

Scheinker, Alexander; Pang, Xiaoying; Rybarcyk, Larry

2013-10-21

We present a new model-independent dynamic feedback technique, rotation rate tuning, for automatically and simultaneously tuning coupled components of uncertain, complex systems. The main advantages of the method are: 1) It has the ability to handle unknown, time-varying systems, 2) It gives known bounds on parameter update rates, 3) We give an analytic proof of its convergence and its stability, and 4) It has a simple digital implementation through a control system such as the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS). Because this technique is model independent it may be useful as a real-time, in-hardware, feedback-based optimization scheme formore » uncertain and time-varying systems. In particular, it is robust enough to handle uncertainty due to coupling, thermal cycling, misalignments, and manufacturing imperfections. As a result, it may be used as a fine-tuning supplement for existing accelerator tuning/control schemes. We present multi-particle simulation results demonstrating the scheme’s ability to simultaneously adaptively adjust the set points of twenty two quadrupole magnets and two RF buncher cavities in the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center Linear Accelerator’s transport region, while the beam properties and RF phase shift are continuously varying. The tuning is based only on beam current readings, without knowledge of particle dynamics. We also present an outline of how to implement this general scheme in software for optimization, and in hardware for feedback-based control/tuning, for a wide range of systems.« less

Aircraft ride quality controller design using new robust root clustering theory for linear uncertain systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yedavalli, R. K.

1992-01-01

The aspect of controller design for improving the ride quality of aircraft in terms of damping ratio and natural frequency specifications on the short period dynamics is addressed. The controller is designed to be robust with respect to uncertainties in the real parameters of the control design model such as uncertainties in the dimensional stability derivatives, imperfections in actuator/sensor locations and possibly variations in flight conditions, etc. The design is based on a new robust root clustering theory developed by the author by extending the nominal root clustering theory of Gutman and Jury to perturbed matrices. The proposed methodology allows to get an explicit relationship between the parameters of the root clustering region and the uncertainty radius of the parameter space. The current literature available for robust stability becomes a special case of this unified theory. The bounds derived on the parameter perturbation for robust root clustering are then used in selecting the robust controller.

Neural-Network-Based Adaptive Decentralized Fault-Tolerant Control for a Class of Interconnected Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Li, Xiao-Jian; Yang, Guang-Hong

2018-01-01

This paper is concerned with the adaptive decentralized fault-tolerant tracking control problem for a class of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with unknown strong interconnections. An algebraic graph theory result is introduced to address the considered interconnections. In addition, to achieve the desirable tracking performance, a neural-network-based robust adaptive decentralized fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme is given to compensate the actuator faults and system uncertainties. Furthermore, via the Lyapunov analysis method, it is proven that all the signals of the resulting closed-loop system are semiglobally bounded, and the tracking errors of each subsystem exponentially converge to a compact set, whose radius is adjustable by choosing different controller design parameters. Finally, the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed FTC approach are illustrated with two simulated examples.

Volcanic Ash Data Assimilation System for Atmospheric Transport Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, K.; Shimbori, T.; Sato, E.; Tokumoto, T.; Hayashi, Y.; Hashimoto, A.

2017-12-01

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has two operations for volcanic ash forecasts, which are Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast (VAFF) and Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA). In these operations, the forecasts are calculated by atmospheric transport models including the advection process, the turbulent diffusion process, the gravitational fall process and the deposition process (wet/dry). The initial distribution of volcanic ash in the models is the most important but uncertain factor. In operations, the model of Suzuki (1983) with many empirical assumptions is adopted to the initial distribution. This adversely affects the reconstruction of actual eruption plumes.We are developing a volcanic ash data assimilation system using weather radars and meteorological satellite observation, in order to improve the initial distribution of the atmospheric transport models. Our data assimilation system is based on the three-dimensional variational data assimilation method (3D-Var). Analysis variables are ash concentration and size distribution parameters which are mutually independent. The radar observation is expected to provide three-dimensional parameters such as ash concentration and parameters of ash particle size distribution. On the other hand, the satellite observation is anticipated to provide two-dimensional parameters of ash clouds such as mass loading, top height and particle effective radius. In this study, we estimate the thickness of ash clouds using vertical wind shear of JMA numerical weather prediction, and apply for the volcanic ash data assimilation system.

Robust design of feedback feed-forward iterative learning control based on 2D system theory for linear uncertain systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhifu; Hu, Yueming; Li, Di

2016-08-01

For a class of linear discrete-time uncertain systems, a feedback feed-forward iterative learning control (ILC) scheme is proposed, which is comprised of an iterative learning controller and two current iteration feedback controllers. The iterative learning controller is used to improve the performance along the iteration direction and the feedback controllers are used to improve the performance along the time direction. First of all, the uncertain feedback feed-forward ILC system is presented by an uncertain two-dimensional Roesser model system. Then, two robust control schemes are proposed. One can ensure that the feedback feed-forward ILC system is bounded-input bounded-output stable along time direction, and the other can ensure that the feedback feed-forward ILC system is asymptotically stable along time direction. Both schemes can guarantee the system is robust monotonically convergent along the iteration direction. Third, the robust convergent sufficient conditions are given, which contains a linear matrix inequality (LMI). Moreover, the LMI can be used to determine the gain matrix of the feedback feed-forward iterative learning controller. Finally, the simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Acoustically Driven Fluid and Particle Motion in Confined and Leaky Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnkob, Rune; Nama, Nitesh; Ren, Liqiang; Huang, Tony Jun; Costanzo, Francesco; Kähler, Christian J.

2018-01-01

The acoustic motion of fluids and particles in confined and acoustically leaky systems is receiving increasing attention for its use in medicine and biotechnology. A number of contradicting physical and numerical models currently exist, but their validity is uncertain due to the unavailability of hard-to-access experimental data for validation. We provide experimental benchmarking data by measuring 3D particle trajectories and demonstrate that the particle trajectories can be described numerically without any fitting parameter by a reduced-fluid model with leaky impedance-wall conditions. The results reveal the hitherto unknown existence of a pseudo-standing wave that drives the acoustic streaming as well as the acoustic radiation force on suspended particles.

Robust cooperation of connected vehicle systems with eigenvalue-bounded interaction topologies in the presence of uncertain dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Keqiang; Gao, Feng; Li, Shengbo Eben; Zheng, Yang; Gao, Hongbo

2017-12-01

This study presents a distributed H-infinity control method for uncertain platoons with dimensionally and structurally unknown interaction topologies provided that the associated topological eigenvalues are bounded by a predesigned range.With an inverse model to compensate for nonlinear powertrain dynamics, vehicles in a platoon are modeled by third-order uncertain systems with bounded disturbances. On the basis of the eigenvalue decomposition of topological matrices, we convert the platoon system to a norm-bounded uncertain part and a diagonally structured certain part by applying linear transformation. We then use a common Lyapunov method to design a distributed H-infinity controller. Numerically, two linear matrix inequalities corresponding to the minimum and maximum eigenvalues should be solved. The resulting controller can tolerate interaction topologies with eigenvalues located in a certain range. The proposed method can also ensure robustness performance and disturbance attenuation ability for the closed-loop platoon system. Hardware-in-the-loop tests are performed to validate the effectiveness of our method.

A new look at the Y tetraquarks and Ω _c baryons in the diquark model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Ahmed; Maiani, Luciano; Borisov, Anatoly V.; Ahmed, Ishtiaq; Aslam, M. Jamil; Parkhomenko, Alexander Ya.; Polosa, Antonio D.; Rehman, Abdur

2018-01-01

We analyze the hidden charm P-wave tetraquarks in the diquark model, using an effective Hamiltonian incorporating the dominant spin-spin, spin-orbit and tensor interactions. We compare with other P-wave systems such as P-wave charmonia and the newly discovered Ω _c baryons, analysed recently in this framework. Given the uncertain experimental situation on the Y states, we allow for different spectra and discuss the related parameters in the diquark model. In addition to the presently observed ones, we expect many more states in the supermultiplet of L=1 diquarkonia, whose J^{PC} quantum numbers and masses are worked out, using the parameters from the currently preferred Y-states pattern. The existence of these new resonances would be a decisive footprint of the underlying diquark dynamics.

Secure estimation, control and optimization of uncertain cyber-physical systems with applications to power networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, Ahmad Fayez

Transportation networks, wearable devices, energy systems, and the book you are reading now are all ubiquitous cyber-physical systems (CPS). These inherently uncertain systems combine physical phenomena with communication, data processing, control and optimization. Many CPSs are controlled and monitored by real-time control systems that use communication networks to transmit and receive data from systems modeled by physical processes. Existing studies have addressed a breadth of challenges related to the design of CPSs. However, there is a lack of studies on uncertain CPSs subject to dynamic unknown inputs and cyber-attacks---an artifact of the insertion of communication networks and the growing complexity of CPSs. The objective of this dissertation is to create secure, computational foundations for uncertain CPSs by establishing a framework to control, estimate and optimize the operation of these systems. With major emphasis on power networks, the dissertation deals with the design of secure computational methods for uncertain CPSs, focusing on three crucial issues---(1) cyber-security and risk-mitigation, (2) network-induced time-delays and perturbations and (3) the encompassed extreme time-scales. The dissertation consists of four parts. In the first part, we investigate dynamic state estimation (DSE) methods and rigorously examine the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed routines under dynamic attack-vectors and unknown inputs. In the second part, and utilizing high-frequency measurements in smart grids and the developed DSE methods in the first part, we present a risk mitigation strategy that minimizes the encountered threat levels, while ensuring the continual observability of the system through available, safe measurements. The developed methods in the first two parts rely on the assumption that the uncertain CPS is not experiencing time-delays, an assumption that might fail under certain conditions. To overcome this challenge, networked unknown input observers---observers/estimators for uncertain CPSs---are designed such that the effect of time-delays and cyber-induced perturbations are minimized, enabling secure DSE and risk mitigation in the first two parts. The final part deals with the extreme time-scales encompassed in CPSs, generally, and smart grids, specifically. Operational decisions for long time-scales can adversely affect the security of CPSs for faster time-scales. We present a model that jointly describes steady-state operation and transient stability by combining convex optimal power flow with semidefinite programming formulations of an optimal control problem. This approach can be jointly utilized with the aforementioned parts of the dissertation work, considering time-delays and DSE. The research contributions of this dissertation furnish CPS stakeholders with insights on the design and operation of uncertain CPSs, whilst guaranteeing the system's real-time safety. Finally, although many of the results of this dissertation are tailored to power systems, the results are general enough to be applied for a variety of uncertain CPSs.

Identification procedure for epistemic uncertainties using inverse fuzzy arithmetic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haag, T.; Herrmann, J.; Hanss, M.

2010-10-01

For the mathematical representation of systems with epistemic uncertainties, arising, for example, from simplifications in the modeling procedure, models with fuzzy-valued parameters prove to be a suitable and promising approach. In practice, however, the determination of these parameters turns out to be a non-trivial problem. The identification procedure to appropriately update these parameters on the basis of a reference output (measurement or output of an advanced model) requires the solution of an inverse problem. Against this background, an inverse method for the computation of the fuzzy-valued parameters of a model with epistemic uncertainties is presented. This method stands out due to the fact that it only uses feedforward simulations of the model, based on the transformation method of fuzzy arithmetic, along with the reference output. An inversion of the system equations is not necessary. The advancement of the method presented in this paper consists of the identification of multiple input parameters based on a single reference output or measurement. An optimization is used to solve the resulting underdetermined problems by minimizing the uncertainty of the identified parameters. Regions where the identification procedure is reliable are determined by the computation of a feasibility criterion which is also based on the output data of the transformation method only. For a frequency response function of a mechanical system, this criterion allows a restriction of the identification process to some special range of frequency where its solution can be guaranteed. Finally, the practicability of the method is demonstrated by covering the measured output of a fluid-filled piping system by the corresponding uncertain FE model in a conservative way.

Decentralized adaptive neural control for high-order interconnected stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems with unknown system dynamics.

PubMed

Si, Wenjie; Dong, Xunde; Yang, Feifei

2018-03-01

This paper is concerned with the problem of decentralized adaptive backstepping state-feedback control for uncertain high-order large-scale stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems. For the control design of high-order large-scale nonlinear systems, only one adaptive parameter is constructed to overcome the over-parameterization, and neural networks are employed to cope with the difficulties raised by completely unknown system dynamics and stochastic disturbances. And then, the appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the property of hyperbolic tangent functions are used to deal with the unknown unmatched time-delay interactions of high-order large-scale systems for the first time. At last, on the basis of Lyapunov stability theory, the decentralized adaptive neural controller was developed, and it decreases the number of learning parameters. The actual controller can be designed so as to ensure that all the signals in the closed-loop system are semi-globally uniformly ultimately bounded (SGUUB) and the tracking error converges in the small neighborhood of zero. The simulation example is used to further show the validity of the design method. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality.

PubMed

Fu, Zhenghui; Wang, Han; Lu, Wentao; Guo, Huaicheng; Li, Wei

2017-12-01

Electric power system involves different fields and disciplines which addressed the economic system, energy system, and environment system. Inner uncertainty of this compound system would be an inevitable problem. Therefore, an inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming (IMFSP) was developed for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality. A model which concluded interval-parameter programming, multistage stochastic programming, and fuzzy probability distribution was built to reflect the uncertain information and dynamic variation in the case study, and the scenarios under different credibility degrees were considered. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions were allowed to be taken dynamically in accordance with the pre-regulated policies and the uncertainties in reality. The results suggest that the methodology is applicable to handle the uncertainty of regional electric power management systems and help the decision makers to establish an effective development plan.

Fuzzy Neural Networks for Decision Support in Negotiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakas, D. P.; Vlachos, D. S.; Simos, T. E.

There is a large number of parameters which one can take into account when building a negotiation model. These parameters in general are uncertain, thus leading to models which represents them with fuzzy sets. On the other hand, the nature of these parameters makes them very difficult to model them with precise values. During negotiation, these parameters play an important role by altering the outcomes or changing the state of the negotiators. One reasonable way to model this procedure is to accept fuzzy relations (from theory or experience). The action of these relations to fuzzy sets, produce new fuzzy setsmore » which describe now the new state of the system or the modified parameters. But, in the majority of these situations, the relations are multidimensional, leading to complicated models and exponentially increasing computational time. In this paper a solution to this problem is presented. The use of fuzzy neural networks is shown that it can substitute the use of fuzzy relations with comparable results. Finally a simple simulation is carried in order to test the new method.« less

Convergence in parameters and predictions using computational experimental design.

PubMed

Hagen, David R; White, Jacob K; Tidor, Bruce

2013-08-06

Typically, biological models fitted to experimental data suffer from significant parameter uncertainty, which can lead to inaccurate or uncertain predictions. One school of thought holds that accurate estimation of the true parameters of a biological system is inherently problematic. Recent work, however, suggests that optimal experimental design techniques can select sets of experiments whose members probe complementary aspects of a biochemical network that together can account for its full behaviour. Here, we implemented an experimental design approach for selecting sets of experiments that constrain parameter uncertainty. We demonstrated with a model of the epidermal growth factor-nerve growth factor pathway that, after synthetically performing a handful of optimal experiments, the uncertainty in all 48 parameters converged below 10 per cent. Furthermore, the fitted parameters converged to their true values with a small error consistent with the residual uncertainty. When untested experimental conditions were simulated with the fitted models, the predicted species concentrations converged to their true values with errors that were consistent with the residual uncertainty. This paper suggests that accurate parameter estimation is achievable with complementary experiments specifically designed for the task, and that the resulting parametrized models are capable of accurate predictions.

Robust passivity analysis for discrete-time recurrent neural networks with mixed delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chuan-Kuei; Shu, Yu-Jeng; Chang, Koan-Yuh; Shou, Ho-Nien; Lu, Chien-Yu

2015-02-01

This article considers the robust passivity analysis for a class of discrete-time recurrent neural networks (DRNNs) with mixed time-delays and uncertain parameters. The mixed time-delays that consist of both the discrete time-varying and distributed time-delays in a given range are presented, and the uncertain parameters are norm-bounded. The activation functions are assumed to be globally Lipschitz continuous. Based on new bounding technique and appropriate type of Lyapunov functional, a sufficient condition is investigated to guarantee the existence of the desired robust passivity condition for the DRNNs, which can be derived in terms of a family of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Some free-weighting matrices are introduced to reduce the conservatism of the criterion by using the bounding technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability.

Terminal sliding mode tracking control for a class of SISO uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Chen, Mou; Wu, Qing-Xian; Cui, Rong-Xin

2013-03-01

In this paper, the terminal sliding mode tracking control is proposed for the uncertain single-input and single-output (SISO) nonlinear system with unknown external disturbance. For the unmeasured disturbance of nonlinear systems, terminal sliding mode disturbance observer is presented. The developed disturbance observer can guarantee the disturbance approximation error to converge to zero in the finite time. Based on the output of designed disturbance observer, the terminal sliding mode tracking control is presented for uncertain SISO nonlinear systems. Subsequently, terminal sliding mode tracking control is developed using disturbance observer technique for the uncertain SISO nonlinear system with control singularity and unknown non-symmetric input saturation. The effects of the control singularity and unknown input saturation are combined with the external disturbance which is approximated using the disturbance observer. Under the proposed terminal sliding mode tracking control techniques, the finite time convergence of all closed-loop signals are guaranteed via Lyapunov analysis. Numerical simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed terminal sliding mode tracking control. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parameter identification of material constants in a composite shell structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martinez, David R.; Carne, Thomas G.

1988-01-01

One of the basic requirements in engineering analysis is the development of a mathematical model describing the system. Frequently comparisons with test data are used as a measurement of the adequacy of the model. An attempt is typically made to update or improve the model to provide a test verified analysis tool. System identification provides a systematic procedure for accomplishing this task. The terms system identification, parameter estimation, and model correlation all refer to techniques that use test information to update or verify mathematical models. The goal of system identification is to improve the correlation of model predictions with measured test data, and produce accurate, predictive models. For nonmetallic structures the modeling task is often difficult due to uncertainties in the elastic constants. A finite element model of the shell was created, which included uncertain orthotropic elastic constants. A modal survey test was then performed on the shell. The resulting modal data, along with the finite element model of the shell, were used in a Bayes estimation algorithm. This permitted the use of covariance matrices to weight the confidence in the initial parameter values as well as confidence in the measured test data. The estimation procedure also employed the concept of successive linearization to obtain an approximate solution to the original nonlinear estimation problem.

Suppression and enhancement of transcriptional noise by DNA looping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilar, Jose M. G.; Saiz, Leonor

2014-06-01

DNA looping has been observed to enhance and suppress transcriptional noise but it is uncertain which of these two opposite effects is to be expected for given conditions. Here, we derive analytical expressions for the main quantifiers of transcriptional noise in terms of the molecular parameters and elucidate the role of DNA looping. Our results rationalize paradoxical experimental observations and provide the first quantitative explanation of landmark individual-cell measurements at the single molecule level on the classical lac operon genetic system [Choi, L. Cai, K. Frieda, and X. S. Xie, Science 322, 442 (2008), 10.1126/science.1161427].

Fuzzy parametric uncertainty analysis of linear dynamical systems: A surrogate modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, R.; Adhikari, S.

2012-10-01

Uncertainty propagation engineering systems possess significant computational challenges. This paper explores the possibility of using correlated function expansion based metamodelling approach when uncertain system parameters are modeled using Fuzzy variables. In particular, the application of High-Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) is proposed for fuzzy finite element analysis of dynamical systems. The HDMR expansion is a set of quantitative model assessment and analysis tools for capturing high-dimensional input-output system behavior based on a hierarchy of functions of increasing dimensions. The input variables may be either finite-dimensional (i.e., a vector of parameters chosen from the Euclidean space RM) or may be infinite-dimensional as in the function space CM[0,1]. The computational effort to determine the expansion functions using the alpha cut method scales polynomially with the number of variables rather than exponentially. This logic is based on the fundamental assumption underlying the HDMR representation that only low-order correlations among the input variables are likely to have significant impacts upon the outputs for most high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed method is integrated with a commercial Finite Element software. Modal analysis of a simplified aircraft wing with Fuzzy parameters has been used to illustrate the generality of the proposed approach. In the numerical examples, triangular membership functions have been used and the results have been validated against direct Monte Carlo simulations.

Performance analysis of complex repairable industrial systems using PSO and fuzzy confidence interval based methodology.

PubMed

Garg, Harish

2013-03-01

The main objective of the present paper is to propose a methodology for analyzing the behavior of the complex repairable industrial systems. In real-life situations, it is difficult to find the most optimal design policies for MTBF (mean time between failures), MTTR (mean time to repair) and related costs by utilizing available resources and uncertain data. For this, the availability-cost optimization model has been constructed for determining the optimal design parameters for improving the system design efficiency. The uncertainties in the data related to each component of the system are estimated with the help of fuzzy and statistical methodology in the form of the triangular fuzzy numbers. Using these data, the various reliability parameters, which affects the system performance, are obtained in the form of the fuzzy membership function by the proposed confidence interval based fuzzy Lambda-Tau (CIBFLT) methodology. The computed results by CIBFLT are compared with the existing fuzzy Lambda-Tau methodology. Sensitivity analysis on the system MTBF has also been addressed. The methodology has been illustrated through a case study of washing unit, the main part of the paper industry. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life cycle assessment of overhead and underground primary power distribution.

PubMed

Bumby, Sarah; Druzhinina, Ekaterina; Feraldi, Rebe; Werthmann, Danae; Geyer, Roland; Sahl, Jack

2010-07-15

Electrical power can be distributed in overhead or underground systems, both of which generate a variety of environmental impacts at all stages of their life cycles. While there is considerable literature discussing the trade-offs between both systems in terms of aesthetics, safety, cost, and reliability, environmental assessments are relatively rare and limited to power cable production and end-of-life management. This paper assesses environmental impacts from overhead and underground medium voltage power distribution systems as they are currently built and managed by Southern California Edison (SCE). It uses process-based life cycle assessment (LCA) according to ISO 14044 (2006) and SCE-specific primary data to the extent possible. Potential environmental impacts have been calculated using a wide range of midpoint indicators, and robustness of the results has been investigated through sensitivity analysis of the most uncertain and potentially significant parameters. The studied underground system has higher environmental impacts in all indicators and for all parameter values, mostly due to its higher material intensity. For both systems and all indicators the majority of impact occurs during cable production. Promising strategies for impact reduction are thus cable failure rate reduction for overhead and cable lifetime extension for underground systems.

Robust decentralized hybrid adaptive output feedback fuzzy control for a class of large-scale MIMO nonlinear systems and its application to AHS.

PubMed

Huang, Yi-Shao; Liu, Wel-Ping; Wu, Min; Wang, Zheng-Wu

2014-09-01

This paper presents a novel observer-based decentralized hybrid adaptive fuzzy control scheme for a class of large-scale continuous-time multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) uncertain nonlinear systems whose state variables are unmeasurable. The scheme integrates fuzzy logic systems, state observers, and strictly positive real conditions to deal with three issues in the control of a large-scale MIMO uncertain nonlinear system: algorithm design, controller singularity, and transient response. Then, the design of the hybrid adaptive fuzzy controller is extended to address a general large-scale uncertain nonlinear system. It is shown that the resultant closed-loop large-scale system keeps asymptotically stable and the tracking error converges to zero. The better characteristics of our scheme are demonstrated by simulations. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Reinforcement-Learning-Based Robust Controller Design for Continuous-Time Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Subject to Input Constraints.

PubMed

Liu, Derong; Yang, Xiong; Wang, Ding; Wei, Qinglai

2015-07-01

The design of stabilizing controller for uncertain nonlinear systems with control constraints is a challenging problem. The constrained-input coupled with the inability to identify accurately the uncertainties motivates the design of stabilizing controller based on reinforcement-learning (RL) methods. In this paper, a novel RL-based robust adaptive control algorithm is developed for a class of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems subject to input constraints. The robust control problem is converted to the constrained optimal control problem with appropriately selecting value functions for the nominal system. Distinct from typical action-critic dual networks employed in RL, only one critic neural network (NN) is constructed to derive the approximate optimal control. Meanwhile, unlike initial stabilizing control often indispensable in RL, there is no special requirement imposed on the initial control. By utilizing Lyapunov's direct method, the closed-loop optimal control system and the estimated weights of the critic NN are proved to be uniformly ultimately bounded. In addition, the derived approximate optimal control is verified to guarantee the uncertain nonlinear system to be stable in the sense of uniform ultimate boundedness. Two simulation examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the present approach.

Benefits estimates of highway capital improvements with uncertain parameters.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

This report warrants consideration in the development of goals, performance measures, and standard cost-benefit methodology required of transportation agencies by the Virginia 2006 Appropriations Act. The Virginia Department of Transportation has beg...

Variational Assimilation of Sparse and Uncertain Satellite Data For 1D Saint-Venant River Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garambois, P. A.; Brisset, P.; Monnier, J.; Roux, H.

2016-12-01

Profusion of satellites are providing increasingly accurate measurements of continental water cyle, and water bodies variations while in situ observability is declining. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will provide maps of river surface elevations widths and slopes with an almost global coverage and temporal revisits. This will offer the possibility to address a larger variety of inverse problems in surface hydrology. Data assimilation techniques, that are broadly used in several scientific fields, aim to optimally combine models, system observations and prior information. Variational assimilation consists in iterative minimization of a discrepency measure between model outputs and observations, here for retrieving boundary conditions and parameters of a 1D Saint Venant model. Nevertheless, inferring river discharge and hydraulic parameters thanks to the observation of river surface is not straightforward. This is particularly true in the case of sparse and uncertain observations of flow state variables since they are governed by nonlinear physical processes. This paper investigates the identifiability of hydraulic controls given sparse and uncertain satellite observations of a river. The identifiability of river discharge alone and with roughness is tested for several spatio temporal patterns of river observations, including SWOT like observations. A new 1D Shallow water model with variational data assimilation, within the DassFlow chain is presented as well as postprocessing and observation operator dedicated to the future SWOT and SWOT simulator data. In view to decrease inverse problem dimensionality discharge is represented in a reduced basis. Moreover we introduce an original and reduced parametrization of the flow resistance that can account for various flow regimes along with a cross section design dedicated to remote sensing. We show which discharge temporal frequencies can be identified w.r.t observation ones and at which accuracy. Eventually the important question of the discharge identifiability potential between observation times and depending on the spatio-temporal sampling is adressed with respect to the wave lengths of the hydrological signals.

Bayesian multiple-source localization in an uncertain ocean environment.

PubMed

Dosso, Stan E; Wilmut, Michael J

2011-06-01

This paper considers simultaneous localization of multiple acoustic sources when properties of the ocean environment (water column and seabed) are poorly known. A Bayesian formulation is developed in which the environmental parameters, noise statistics, and locations and complex strengths (amplitudes and phases) of multiple sources are considered to be unknown random variables constrained by acoustic data and prior information. Two approaches are considered for estimating source parameters. Focalization maximizes the posterior probability density (PPD) over all parameters using adaptive hybrid optimization. Marginalization integrates the PPD using efficient Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods to produce joint marginal probability distributions for source ranges and depths, from which source locations are obtained. This approach also provides quantitative uncertainty analysis for all parameters, which can aid in understanding of the inverse problem and may be of practical interest (e.g., source-strength probability distributions). In both approaches, closed-form maximum-likelihood expressions for source strengths and noise variance at each frequency allow these parameters to be sampled implicitly, substantially reducing the dimensionality and difficulty of the inversion. Examples are presented of both approaches applied to single- and multi-frequency localization of multiple sources in an uncertain shallow-water environment, and a Monte Carlo performance evaluation study is carried out. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Adaptive output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear systems using single-hidden-layer neural networks.

PubMed

Hovakimyan, N; Nardi, F; Calise, A; Kim, Nakwan

2002-01-01

We consider adaptive output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear systems, in which both the dynamics and the dimension of the regulated system may be unknown. However, the relative degree of the regulated output is assumed to be known. Given a smooth reference trajectory, the problem is to design a controller that forces the system measurement to track it with bounded errors. The classical approach requires a state observer. Finding a good observer for an uncertain nonlinear system is not an obvious task. We argue that it is sufficient to build an observer for the output tracking error. Ultimate boundedness of the error signals is shown through Lyapunov's direct method. The theoretical results are illustrated in the design of a controller for a fourth-order nonlinear system of relative degree two and a high-bandwidth attitude command system for a model R-50 helicopter.

Optimal design for robust control of uncertain flexible joint manipulators: a fuzzy dynamical system approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jiang; Chen, Ye-Hwa; Zhao, Xiaomin; Dong, Fangfang

2018-04-01

A novel fuzzy dynamical system approach to the control design of flexible joint manipulators with mismatched uncertainty is proposed. Uncertainties of the system are assumed to lie within prescribed fuzzy sets. The desired system performance includes a deterministic phase and a fuzzy phase. First, by creatively implanting a fictitious control, a robust control scheme is constructed to render the system uniformly bounded and uniformly ultimately bounded. Both the manipulator modelling and control scheme are deterministic and not IF-THEN heuristic rules-based. Next, a fuzzy-based performance index is proposed. An optimal design problem for a control design parameter is formulated as a constrained optimisation problem. The global solution to this problem can be obtained from solving two quartic equations. The fuzzy dynamical system approach is systematic and is able to assure the deterministic performance as well as to minimise the fuzzy performance index.

Improved first-order uncertainty method for water-quality modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, C.S.; Anmangandla, S.

1992-01-01

Uncertainties are unavoidable in water-quality modeling and subsequent management decisions. Monte Carlo simulation and first-order uncertainty analysis (involving linearization at central values of the uncertain variables) have been frequently used to estimate probability distributions for water-quality model output due to their simplicity. Each method has its drawbacks: Monte Carlo simulation's is mainly computational time; and first-order analysis are mainly questions of accuracy and representativeness, especially for nonlinear systems and extreme conditions. An improved (advanced) first-order method is presented, where the linearization point varies to match the output level whose exceedance probability is sought. The advanced first-order method is tested on the Streeter-Phelps equation to estimate the probability distribution of critical dissolved-oxygen deficit and critical dissolved oxygen using two hypothetical examples from the literature. The advanced first-order method provides a close approximation of the exceedance probability for the Streeter-Phelps model output estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using less computer time - by two orders of magnitude - regardless of the probability distributions assumed for the uncertain model parameters.

Synchronization of coupled different chaotic FitzHugh-Nagumo neurons with unknown parameters under communication-direction-dependent coupling.

PubMed

Iqbal, Muhammad; Rehan, Muhammad; Khaliq, Abdul; Saeed-ur-Rehman; Hong, Keum-Shik

2014-01-01

This paper investigates the chaotic behavior and synchronization of two different coupled chaotic FitzHugh-Nagumo (FHN) neurons with unknown parameters under external electrical stimulation (EES). The coupled FHN neurons of different parameters admit unidirectional and bidirectional gap junctions in the medium between them. Dynamical properties, such as the increase in synchronization error as a consequence of the deviation of neuronal parameters for unlike neurons, the effect of difference in coupling strengths caused by the unidirectional gap junctions, and the impact of large time-delay due to separation of neurons, are studied in exploring the behavior of the coupled system. A novel integral-based nonlinear adaptive control scheme, to cope with the infeasibility of the recovery variable, for synchronization of two coupled delayed chaotic FHN neurons of different and unknown parameters under uncertain EES is derived. Further, to guarantee robust synchronization of different neurons against disturbances, the proposed control methodology is modified to achieve the uniformly ultimately bounded synchronization. The parametric estimation errors can be reduced by selecting suitable control parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is illustrated via numerical simulations.

Monitoring Of Air Quality Parameters For Construction Of Fire Risk Detection Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romancov, I. I.; Dashkovky, A. G.; Panin, V. F.; Melkov, D. N.

2017-01-01

The analysis of fire developmental process is given, which showed that there are seven stages of fire development, a set of phenomena (factors, signs) of fire risk condition, characterized by a set of defined parameters, corresponds to each stage. Observed that the registration of high staging factors (high ambient temperature, content of CO2, etc.) means the registration of actual low staging fire (thermal destruction of materials gases, fumes, etc.) - fire risk situation. It is shown that the decrease of registered factor staging leads to construction of fire preventive and diagnostic systems as the lower is registered stage, the more uncertain is connection between the fact of its detection and a fire. It is indicated that with development of electronic equipment the staging of fire situations factors used for detection is reducing in whole, and also it is noted that for each control object it is necessary to choose (identify) the optimal factor, in particular, in many ways the optimal factor for aircrafts are smokes and their TV image.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Thomas K., IV; Johnston, Christopher O.; Hosder, Serhat

2016-01-01

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

A Computational Framework to Control Verification and Robustness Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for evaluating the robustness of a controller based on its ability to satisfy the design requirements. The framework proposed is generic since it allows for high-fidelity models, arbitrary control structures and arbitrary functional dependencies between the requirements and the uncertain parameters. The cornerstone of this contribution is the ability to bound the region of the uncertain parameter space where the degradation in closed-loop performance remains acceptable. The size of this bounding set, whose geometry can be prescribed according to deterministic or probabilistic uncertainty models, is a measure of robustness. The robustness metrics proposed herein are the parametric safety margin, the reliability index, the failure probability and upper bounds to this probability. The performance observed at the control verification setting, where the assumptions and approximations used for control design may no longer hold, will fully determine the proposed control assessment.

Robust Design of Biological Circuits: Evolutionary Systems Biology Approach

PubMed Central

Chen, Bor-Sen; Hsu, Chih-Yuan; Liou, Jing-Jia

2011-01-01

Artificial gene circuits have been proposed to be embedded into microbial cells that function as switches, timers, oscillators, and the Boolean logic gates. Building more complex systems from these basic gene circuit components is one key advance for biologic circuit design and synthetic biology. However, the behavior of bioengineered gene circuits remains unstable and uncertain. In this study, a nonlinear stochastic system is proposed to model the biological systems with intrinsic parameter fluctuations and environmental molecular noise from the cellular context in the host cell. Based on evolutionary systems biology algorithm, the design parameters of target gene circuits can evolve to specific values in order to robustly track a desired biologic function in spite of intrinsic and environmental noise. The fitness function is selected to be inversely proportional to the tracking error so that the evolutionary biological circuit can achieve the optimal tracking mimicking the evolutionary process of a gene circuit. Finally, several design examples are given in silico with the Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate the design procedure and to confirm the robust performance of the proposed design method. The result shows that the designed gene circuits can robustly track desired behaviors with minimal errors even with nontrivial intrinsic and external noise. PMID:22187523

Tradeoff methods in multiobjective insensitive design of airplane control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schy, A. A.; Giesy, D. P.

1984-01-01

The latest results of an ongoing study of computer-aided design of airplane control systems are given. Constrained minimization algorithms are used, with the design objectives in the constraint vector. The concept of Pareto optimiality is briefly reviewed. It is shown how an experienced designer can use it to find designs which are well-balanced in all objectives. Then the problem of finding designs which are insensitive to uncertainty in system parameters are discussed, introducing a probabilistic vector definition of sensitivity which is consistent with the deterministic Pareto optimal problem. Insensitivity is important in any practical design, but it is particularly important in the design of feedback control systems, since it is considered to be the most important distinctive property of feedback control. Methods of tradeoff between deterministic and stochastic-insensitive (SI) design are described, and tradeoff design results are presented for the example of the a Shuttle lateral stability augmentation system. This example is used because careful studies have been made of the uncertainty in Shuttle aerodynamics. Finally, since accurate statistics of uncertain parameters are usually not available, the effects of crude statistical models on SI designs are examined.

Robust design of biological circuits: evolutionary systems biology approach.

PubMed

Chen, Bor-Sen; Hsu, Chih-Yuan; Liou, Jing-Jia

2011-01-01

Artificial gene circuits have been proposed to be embedded into microbial cells that function as switches, timers, oscillators, and the Boolean logic gates. Building more complex systems from these basic gene circuit components is one key advance for biologic circuit design and synthetic biology. However, the behavior of bioengineered gene circuits remains unstable and uncertain. In this study, a nonlinear stochastic system is proposed to model the biological systems with intrinsic parameter fluctuations and environmental molecular noise from the cellular context in the host cell. Based on evolutionary systems biology algorithm, the design parameters of target gene circuits can evolve to specific values in order to robustly track a desired biologic function in spite of intrinsic and environmental noise. The fitness function is selected to be inversely proportional to the tracking error so that the evolutionary biological circuit can achieve the optimal tracking mimicking the evolutionary process of a gene circuit. Finally, several design examples are given in silico with the Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate the design procedure and to confirm the robust performance of the proposed design method. The result shows that the designed gene circuits can robustly track desired behaviors with minimal errors even with nontrivial intrinsic and external noise.

Estimation of Community Land Model parameters for an improved assessment of net carbon fluxes at European sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Hanna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Fox, Andrew; Vereecken, Harry; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan

2017-03-01

The Community Land Model (CLM) contains many parameters whose values are uncertain and thus require careful estimation for model application at individual sites. Here we used Bayesian inference with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm to estimate eight CLM v.4.5 ecosystem parameters using 1 year records of half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) observations of four central European sites with different plant functional types (PFTs). The posterior CLM parameter distributions of each site were estimated per individual season and on a yearly basis. These estimates were then evaluated using NEE data from an independent evaluation period and data from "nearby" FLUXNET sites at 600 km distance to the original sites. Latent variables (multipliers) were used to treat explicitly uncertainty in the initial carbon-nitrogen pools. The posterior parameter estimates were superior to their default values in their ability to track and explain the measured NEE data of each site. The seasonal parameter values reduced with more than 50% (averaged over all sites) the bias in the simulated NEE values. The most consistent performance of CLM during the evaluation period was found for the posterior parameter values of the forest PFTs, and contrary to the C3-grass and C3-crop sites, the latent variables of the initial pools further enhanced the quality-of-fit. The carbon sink function of the forest PFTs significantly increased with the posterior parameter estimates. We thus conclude that land surface model predictions of carbon stocks and fluxes require careful consideration of uncertain ecological parameters and initial states.

Insights in time dependent cross compartment sensitivities from ensemble simulations with the fully coupled subsurface-land surface-atmosphere model TerrSysMP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schalge, Bernd; Rihani, Jehan; Haese, Barbara; Baroni, Gabriele; Erdal, Daniel; Haefliger, Vincent; Lange, Natascha; Neuweiler, Insa; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Geppert, Gernot; Ament, Felix; Kollet, Stefan; Cirpka, Olaf; Saavedra, Pablo; Han, Xujun; Attinger, Sabine; Kunstmann, Harald; Vereecken, Harry; Simmer, Clemens

2017-04-01

Currently, an integrated approach to simulating the earth system is evolving where several compartment models are coupled to achieve the best possible physically consistent representation. We used the model TerrSysMP, which fully couples subsurface, land surface and atmosphere, in a synthetic study that mimicked the Neckar catchment in Southern Germany. A virtual reality run at a high resolution of 400m for the land surface and subsurface and 1.1km for the atmosphere was made. Ensemble runs at a lower resolution (800m for the land surface and subsurface) were also made. The ensemble was generated by varying soil and vegetation parameters and lateral atmospheric forcing among the different ensemble members in a systematic way. It was found that the ensemble runs deviated for some variables and some time periods largely from the virtual reality reference run (the reference run was not covered by the ensemble), which could be related to the different model resolutions. This was for example the case for river discharge in the summer. We also analyzed the spread of model states as function of time and found clear relations between the spread and the time of the year and weather conditions. For example, the ensemble spread of latent heat flux related to uncertain soil parameters was larger under dry soil conditions than under wet soil conditions. Another example is that the ensemble spread of atmospheric states was more influenced by uncertain soil and vegetation parameters under conditions of low air pressure gradients (in summer) than under conditions with larger air pressure gradients in winter. The analysis of the ensemble of fully coupled model simulations provided valuable insights in the dynamics of land-atmosphere feedbacks which we will further highlight in the presentation.

Introducing uncertainty analysis of nucleation and crystal growth models in Process Analytical Technology (PAT) system design of crystallization processes.

PubMed

Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Abdul; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V; Gani, Rafiqul

2013-11-01

This paper presents the application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis as part of a systematic model-based process monitoring and control (PAT) system design framework for crystallization processes. For the uncertainty analysis, the Monte Carlo procedure is used to propagate input uncertainty, while for sensitivity analysis, global methods including the standardized regression coefficients (SRC) and Morris screening are used to identify the most significant parameters. The potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP) crystallization process is used as a case study, both in open-loop and closed-loop operation. In the uncertainty analysis, the impact on the predicted output of uncertain parameters related to the nucleation and the crystal growth model has been investigated for both a one- and two-dimensional crystal size distribution (CSD). The open-loop results show that the input uncertainties lead to significant uncertainties on the CSD, with appearance of a secondary peak due to secondary nucleation for both cases. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important parameters affecting the CSDs are nucleation order and growth order constants. In the proposed PAT system design (closed-loop), the target CSD variability was successfully reduced compared to the open-loop case, also when considering uncertainty in nucleation and crystal growth model parameters. The latter forms a strong indication of the robustness of the proposed PAT system design in achieving the target CSD and encourages its transfer to full-scale implementation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High dimensional model representation method for fuzzy structural dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Chowdhury, R.; Friswell, M. I.

2011-03-01

Uncertainty propagation in multi-parameter complex structures possess significant computational challenges. This paper investigates the possibility of using the High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) approach when uncertain system parameters are modeled using fuzzy variables. In particular, the application of HDMR is proposed for fuzzy finite element analysis of linear dynamical systems. The HDMR expansion is an efficient formulation for high-dimensional mapping in complex systems if the higher order variable correlations are weak, thereby permitting the input-output relationship behavior to be captured by the terms of low-order. The computational effort to determine the expansion functions using the α-cut method scales polynomically with the number of variables rather than exponentially. This logic is based on the fundamental assumption underlying the HDMR representation that only low-order correlations among the input variables are likely to have significant impacts upon the outputs for most high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed method is first illustrated for multi-parameter nonlinear mathematical test functions with fuzzy variables. The method is then integrated with a commercial finite element software (ADINA). Modal analysis of a simplified aircraft wing with fuzzy parameters has been used to illustrate the generality of the proposed approach. In the numerical examples, triangular membership functions have been used and the results have been validated against direct Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that using the proposed HDMR approach, the number of finite element function calls can be reduced without significantly compromising the accuracy.

Quantifying potential health impacts of cadmium in cigarettes on smoker risk of lung cancer: a portfolio-of-mechanisms approach.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2006-12-01

This article introduces an approach to estimating the uncertain potential effects on lung cancer risk of removing a particular constituent, cadmium (Cd), from cigarette smoke, given the useful but incomplete scientific information available about its modes of action. The approach considers normal cell proliferation; DNA repair inhibition in normal cells affected by initiating events; proliferation, promotion, and progression of initiated cells; and death or sparing of initiated and malignant cells as they are further transformed to become fully tumorigenic. Rather than estimating unmeasured model parameters by curve fitting to epidemiological or animal experimental tumor data, we attempt rough estimates of parameters based on their biological interpretations and comparison to corresponding genetic polymorphism data. The resulting parameter estimates are admittedly uncertain and approximate, but they suggest a portfolio approach to estimating impacts of removing Cd that gives usefully robust conclusions. This approach views Cd as creating a portfolio of uncertain health impacts that can be expressed as biologically independent relative risk factors having clear mechanistic interpretations. Because Cd can act through many distinct biological mechanisms, it appears likely (subjective probability greater than 40%) that removing Cd from cigarette smoke would reduce smoker risks of lung cancer by at least 10%, although it is possible (consistent with what is known) that the true effect could be much larger or smaller. Conservative estimates and assumptions made in this calculation suggest that the true impact could be greater for some smokers. This conclusion appears to be robust to many scientific uncertainties about Cd and smoking effects.

Dynamic modeling, property investigation, and adaptive controller design of serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tesar, Delbert; Tosunoglu, Sabri; Lin, Shyng-Her

1990-01-01

Research results on general serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliances are presented. Two compliant manipulator modeling approaches, distributed and lumped parameter models, are used in this study. System dynamic equations for both compliant models are derived by using the first and second order influence coefficients. Also, the properties of compliant manipulator system dynamics are investigated. One of the properties, which is defined as inaccessibility of vibratory modes, is shown to display a distinct character associated with compliant manipulators. This property indicates the impact of robot geometry on the control of structural oscillations. Example studies are provided to illustrate the physical interpretation of inaccessibility of vibratory modes. Two types of controllers are designed for compliant manipulators modeled by either lumped or distributed parameter techniques. In order to maintain the generality of the results, neither linearization is introduced. Example simulations are given to demonstrate the controller performance. The second type controller is also built for general serial robot arms and is adaptive in nature which can estimate uncertain payload parameters on-line and simultaneously maintain trajectory tracking properties. The relation between manipulator motion tracking capability and convergence of parameter estimation properties is discussed through example case studies. The effect of control input update delays on adaptive controller performance is also studied.

Iterative Importance Sampling Algorithms for Parameter Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grout, Ray W; Morzfeld, Matthias; Day, Marcus S.

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of such problems. An alternative to MCMC is importance sampling, which can exhibit near perfect scaling with the number of cores on high performance computing systems because samples are drawn independently. However, finding a suitable proposal distribution is a challenging task. Several sampling algorithms have been proposed over the past years that take an iterative approach to constructing a proposal distribution. We investigate the applicabilitymore » of such algorithms by applying them to two realistic and challenging test problems, one in subsurface flow, and one in combustion modeling. More specifically, we implement importance sampling algorithms that iterate over the mean and covariance matrix of Gaussian or multivariate t-proposal distributions. Our implementation leverages massively parallel computers, and we present strategies to initialize the iterations using 'coarse' MCMC runs or Gaussian mixture models.« less

Wire rope tension control of hoisting systems using a robust nonlinear adaptive backstepping control scheme.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhen-Cai; Li, Xiang; Shen, Gang; Zhu, Wei-Dong

2018-01-01

This paper concerns wire rope tension control of a double-rope winding hoisting system (DRWHS), which consists of a hoisting system employed to realize a transportation function and an electro-hydraulic servo system utilized to adjust wire rope tensions. A dynamic model of the DRWHS is developed in which parameter uncertainties and external disturbances are considered. A comparison between simulation results using the dynamic model and experimental results using a double-rope winding hoisting experimental system is given in order to demonstrate accuracy of the dynamic model. In order to improve the wire rope tension coordination control performance of the DRWHS, a robust nonlinear adaptive backstepping controller (RNABC) combined with a nonlinear disturbance observer (NDO) is proposed. Main features of the proposed combined controller are: (1) using the RNABC to adjust wire rope tensions with consideration of parameter uncertainties, whose parameters are designed online by adaptive laws derived from Lyapunov stability theory to guarantee the control performance and stability of the closed-loop system; and (2) introducing the NDO to deal with uncertain external disturbances. In order to demonstrate feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed controller, experimental studies have been conducted on the DRWHS controlled by an xPC rapid prototyping system. Experimental results verify that the proposed controller exhibits excellent performance on wire rope tension coordination control compared with a conventional proportional-integral (PI) controller and adaptive backstepping controller. Copyright © 2017 ISA. All rights reserved.

Robust sensor fault detection and isolation of gas turbine engines subjected to time-varying parameter uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourbabaee, Bahareh; Meskin, Nader; Khorasani, Khashayar

2016-08-01

In this paper, a novel robust sensor fault detection and isolation (FDI) strategy using the multiple model-based (MM) approach is proposed that remains robust with respect to both time-varying parameter uncertainties and process and measurement noise in all the channels. The scheme is composed of robust Kalman filters (RKF) that are constructed for multiple piecewise linear (PWL) models that are constructed at various operating points of an uncertain nonlinear system. The parameter uncertainty is modeled by using a time-varying norm bounded admissible structure that affects all the PWL state space matrices. The robust Kalman filter gain matrices are designed by solving two algebraic Riccati equations (AREs) that are expressed as two linear matrix inequality (LMI) feasibility conditions. The proposed multiple RKF-based FDI scheme is simulated for a single spool gas turbine engine to diagnose various sensor faults despite the presence of parameter uncertainties, process and measurement noise. Our comparative studies confirm the superiority of our proposed FDI method when compared to the methods that are available in the literature.

Bellman Continuum (3rd) International Workshop (13-14 June 1988)

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-01

Modelling Uncertain Problem ................. 53 David Bensoussan ,---,>Asymptotic Linearization of Uncertain Multivariable Systems by Sliding Modes...K. Ghosh .-. Robust Model Tracking for a Class of Singularly Perturbed Nonlinear Systems via Composite Control ....... 93 F. Garofalo and L. Glielmo...MODELISATION ET COMMANDE EN ECONOMIE MODELS AND CONTROL POLICIES IN ECONOMICS Qualitative Differential Games : A Viability Approach ............. 117

Distributed control systems with incomplete and uncertain information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingpeng

Scientific and engineering advances in wireless communication, sensors, propulsion, and other areas are rapidly making it possible to develop unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) with sophisticated capabilities. UAVs have come to the forefront as tools for airborne reconnaissance to search for, detect, and destroy enemy targets in relatively complex environments. They potentially reduce risk to human life, are cost effective, and are superior to manned aircraft for certain types of missions. It is desirable for UAVs to have a high level of intelligent autonomy to carry out mission tasks with little external supervision and control. This raises important issues involving tradeoffs between centralized control and the associated potential to optimize mission plans, and decentralized control with great robustness and the potential to adapt to changing conditions. UAV capabilities have been extended several ways through armament (e.g., Hellfire missiles on Predator UAVs), increased endurance and altitude (e.g., Global Hawk), and greater autonomy. Some known barriers to full-scale implementation of UAVs are increased communication and control requirements as well as increased platform and system complexity. One of the key problems is how UAV systems can handle incomplete and uncertain information in dynamic environments. Especially when the system is composed of heterogeneous and distributed UAVs, the overall system complexity is increased under such conditions. Presented through the use of published papers, this dissertation lays the groundwork for the study of methodologies for handling incomplete and uncertain information for distributed control systems. An agent-based simulation framework is built to investigate mathematical approaches (optimization) and emergent intelligence approaches. The first paper provides a mathematical approach for systems of UAVs to handle incomplete and uncertain information. The second paper describes an emergent intelligence approach for UAVs, again in handling incomplete and uncertain information. The third paper combines mathematical and emergent intelligence approaches.

Efficient uncertainty quantification in fully-integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, K. L.; Berg, S. J.; Davison, J. H.; Sudicky, E. A.; Forsyth, P. A.

2018-01-01

Although high performance computers and advanced numerical methods have made the application of fully-integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport models such as HydroGeoSphere common place, run times for large complex basin models can still be on the order of days to weeks, thus, limiting the usefulness of traditional workhorse algorithms for uncertainty quantification (UQ) such as Latin Hypercube simulation (LHS) or Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), which generally require thousands of simulations to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. In this paper we investigate non-intrusive polynomial chaos for uncertainty quantification, which in contrast to random sampling methods (e.g., LHS and MCS), represents a model response of interest as a weighted sum of polynomials over the random inputs. Once a chaos expansion has been constructed, approximating the mean, covariance, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, and other common statistics as well as local and global sensitivity measures is straightforward and computationally inexpensive, thus making PCE an attractive UQ method for hydrologic models with long run times. Our polynomial chaos implementation was validated through comparison with analytical solutions as well as solutions obtained via LHS for simple numerical problems. It was then used to quantify parametric uncertainty in a series of numerical problems with increasing complexity, including a two-dimensional fully-saturated, steady flow and transient transport problem with six uncertain parameters and one quantity of interest; a one-dimensional variably-saturated column test involving transient flow and transport, four uncertain parameters, and two quantities of interest at 101 spatial locations and five different times each (1010 total); and a three-dimensional fully-integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport problem for a small test catchment involving seven uncertain parameters and three quantities of interest at 241 different times each. Numerical experiments show that polynomial chaos is an effective and robust method for quantifying uncertainty in fully-integrated hydrologic simulations, which provides a rich set of features and is computationally efficient. Our approach has the potential for significant speedup over existing sampling based methods when the number of uncertain model parameters is modest ( ≤ 20). To our knowledge, this is the first implementation of the algorithm in a comprehensive, fully-integrated, physically-based three-dimensional hydrosystem model.

Adaptive Control for Uncertain Nonlinear Multi-Input Multi-Output Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cao, Chengyu (Inventor); Hovakimyan, Naira (Inventor); Xargay, Enric (Inventor)

2014-01-01

Systems and methods of adaptive control for uncertain nonlinear multi-input multi-output systems in the presence of significant unmatched uncertainty with assured performance are provided. The need for gain-scheduling is eliminated through the use of bandwidth-limited (low-pass) filtering in the control channel, which appropriately attenuates the high frequencies typically appearing in fast adaptation situations and preserves the robustness margins in the presence of fast adaptation.

A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

Robust Stabilization of Uncertain Systems Based on Energy Dissipation Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Sandeep

1996-01-01

Robust stability conditions obtained through generalization of the notion of energy dissipation in physical systems are discussed in this report. Linear time-invariant (LTI) systems which dissipate energy corresponding to quadratic power functions are characterized in the time-domain and the frequency-domain, in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMls) and algebraic Riccati equations (ARE's). A novel characterization of strictly dissipative LTI systems is introduced in this report. Sufficient conditions in terms of dissipativity and strict dissipativity are presented for (1) stability of the feedback interconnection of dissipative LTI systems, (2) stability of dissipative LTI systems with memoryless feedback nonlinearities, and (3) quadratic stability of uncertain linear systems. It is demonstrated that the framework of dissipative LTI systems investigated in this report unifies and extends small gain, passivity, and sector conditions for stability. Techniques for selecting power functions for characterization of uncertain plants and robust controller synthesis based on these stability results are introduced. A spring-mass-damper example is used to illustrate the application of these methods for robust controller synthesis.

The predictive consequences of parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J.; Hughes, J. D.; Doherty, J. E.

2013-12-01

In numerical groundwater modeling, parameterization is the process of selecting the aspects of a computer model that will be allowed to vary during history matching. This selection process is dependent on professional judgment and is, therefore, inherently subjective. Ideally, a robust parameterization should be commensurate with the spatial and temporal resolution of the model and should include all uncertain aspects of the model. Limited computing resources typically require reducing the number of adjustable parameters so that only a subset of the uncertain model aspects are treated as estimable parameters; the remaining aspects are treated as fixed parameters during history matching. We use linear subspace theory to develop expressions for the predictive error incurred by fixing parameters. The predictive error is comprised of two terms. The first term arises directly from the sensitivity of a prediction to fixed parameters. The second term arises from prediction-sensitive adjustable parameters that are forced to compensate for fixed parameters during history matching. The compensation is accompanied by inappropriate adjustment of otherwise uninformed, null-space parameter components. Unwarranted adjustment of null-space components away from prior maximum likelihood values may produce bias if a prediction is sensitive to those components. The potential for subjective parameterization choices to corrupt predictions is examined using a synthetic model. Several strategies are evaluated, including use of piecewise constant zones, use of pilot points with Tikhonov regularization and use of the Karhunen-Loeve transformation. The best choice of parameterization (as defined by minimum error variance) is strongly dependent on the types of predictions to be made by the model.

A robust model predictive control algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems that guarantees resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Carson, John M., III

2006-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees resolvability. With resolvability, initial feasibility of the finite-horizon optimal control problem implies future feasibility in a receding-horizon framework. The control consists of two components; (i) feed-forward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems using composite nonlinear feedback based integral sliding mode control.

PubMed

Mobayen, Saleh

2018-06-01

This paper proposes a combination of composite nonlinear feedback and integral sliding mode techniques for fast and accurate chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems with Lipschitz nonlinear functions, time-varying delays and disturbances. The composite nonlinear feedback method allows accurate following of the master chaotic system and the integral sliding mode control provides invariance property which rejects the perturbations and preserves the stability of the closed-loop system. Based on the Lyapunov- Krasovskii stability theory and linear matrix inequalities, a novel sufficient condition is offered for the chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems. This method not only guarantees the robustness against perturbations and time-delays, but also eliminates reaching phase and avoids chattering problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the suggested procedure leads to a great control performance. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-step sensitivity testing of parametrized and regionalized life cycle assessments: methodology and case study.

PubMed

Mutel, Christopher L; de Baan, Laura; Hellweg, Stefanie

2013-06-04

Comprehensive sensitivity analysis is a significant tool to interpret and improve life cycle assessment (LCA) models, but is rarely performed. Sensitivity analysis will increase in importance as inventory databases become regionalized, increasing the number of system parameters, and parametrized, adding complexity through variables and nonlinear formulas. We propose and implement a new two-step approach to sensitivity analysis. First, we identify parameters with high global sensitivities for further examination and analysis with a screening step, the method of elementary effects. Second, the more computationally intensive contribution to variance test is used to quantify the relative importance of these parameters. The two-step sensitivity test is illustrated on a regionalized, nonlinear case study of the biodiversity impacts from land use of cocoa production, including a worldwide cocoa products trade model. Our simplified trade model can be used for transformable commodities where one is assessing market shares that vary over time. In the case study, the highly uncertain characterization factors for the Ivory Coast and Ghana contributed more than 50% of variance for almost all countries and years examined. The two-step sensitivity test allows for the interpretation, understanding, and improvement of large, complex, and nonlinear LCA systems.

How certain are the process parameterizations in our models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharari, Shervan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Matgen, Patrick; Razavi, Saman; Savenije, Hubert; Gupta, Hoshin; Wheater, Howard

2016-04-01

Environmental models are abstract simplifications of real systems. As a result, the elements of these models, including system architecture (structure), process parameterization and parameters inherit a high level of approximation and simplification. In a conventional model building exercise the parameter values are the only elements of a model which can vary while the rest of the modeling elements are often fixed a priori and therefore not subjected to change. Once chosen the process parametrization and model structure usually remains the same throughout the modeling process. The only flexibility comes from the changing parameter values, thereby enabling these models to reproduce the desired observation. This part of modeling practice, parameter identification and uncertainty, has attracted a significant attention in the literature during the last years. However what remains unexplored in our point of view is to what extent the process parameterization and system architecture (model structure) can support each other. In other words "Does a specific form of process parameterization emerge for a specific model given its system architecture and data while no or little assumption has been made about the process parameterization itself? In this study we relax the assumption regarding a specific pre-determined form for the process parameterizations of a rainfall/runoff model and examine how varying the complexity of the system architecture can lead to different or possibly contradictory parameterization forms than what would have been decided otherwise. This comparison implicitly and explicitly provides us with an assessment of how uncertain is our perception of model process parameterization in respect to the extent the data can support.

Design of Robust Controllers for a Multiple Input-Multiple Output Control System with Uncertain Parameters Application to the Lateral and Longitudinal Modes of the KC-135 Transport Aircraft

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-12-01

input/output relationship. These are obtained from the design specifications (10:68i-684). Note that the first digit of the subscript of bkj refers...to the output and the second digit to the input. Thus, bkj is.a function of the response requirements on the output, Yk’ due to the input, r.. 169 . A...NXPMAX pNYPMAX, IPLOT) C C C* LIBARY OF PLOT SUBR(OUTINES PSNTCT NLIEPRINTER ONLY~ C* C C C SUP’ LPLOTS C C C DIMENSION IXY(101,71)918UF(100) COMMON /HOPY

Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in bayes nets for invasive species management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burgman, M.A.; Wintle, B.A.; Thompson, C.A.; Moilanen, A.; Runge, M.C.; Ben-Haim, Y.

2010-01-01

Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info-gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered. ?? 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.

Robust preview control for a class of uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Li, Li; Liao, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This paper proposes a concept of robust preview tracking control for uncertain discrete-time systems with time-varying delay. Firstly, a model transformation is employed for an uncertain discrete system with time-varying delay. Then, the auxiliary variables related to the system state and input are introduced to derive an augmented error system that includes future information on the reference signal. This leads to the tracking problem being transformed into a regulator problem. Finally, for the augmented error system, a sufficient condition of asymptotic stability is derived and the preview controller design method is proposed based on the scaled small gain theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. The method proposed in this paper not only solves the difficulty problem of applying the difference operator to the time-varying matrices but also simplifies the structure of the augmented error system. The numerical simulation example also illustrates the effectiveness of the results presented in the paper. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cosmological simulations of dwarf galaxies with cosmic ray feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jingjing; Bryan, Greg L.; Salem, Munier

2016-08-01

We perform zoom-in cosmological simulations of a suite of dwarf galaxies, examining the impact of cosmic rays (CRs) generated by supernovae, including the effect of diffusion. We first look at the effect of varying the uncertain CR parameters by repeatedly simulating a single galaxy. Then we fix the comic ray model and simulate five dwarf systems with virial masses range from 8 to 30 × 1010 M⊙. We find that including CR feedback (with diffusion) consistently leads to disc-dominated systems with relatively flat rotation curves and constant star formation rates. In contrast, our purely thermal feedback case results in a hot stellar system and bursty star formation. The CR simulations very well match the observed baryonic Tully-Fisher relation, but have a lower gas fraction than in real systems. We also find that the dark matter cores of the CR feedback galaxies are cuspy, while the purely thermal feedback case results in a substantial core.

Control design for robust stability in linear regulators: Application to aerospace flight control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yedavalli, R. K.

1986-01-01

Time domain stability robustness analysis and design for linear multivariable uncertain systems with bounded uncertainties is the central theme of the research. After reviewing the recently developed upper bounds on the linear elemental (structured), time varying perturbation of an asymptotically stable linear time invariant regulator, it is shown that it is possible to further improve these bounds by employing state transformations. Then introducing a quantitative measure called the stability robustness index, a state feedback conrol design algorithm is presented for a general linear regulator problem and then specialized to the case of modal systems as well as matched systems. The extension of the algorithm to stochastic systems with Kalman filter as the state estimator is presented. Finally an algorithm for robust dynamic compensator design is presented using Parameter Optimization (PO) procedure. Applications in a aircraft control and flexible structure control are presented along with a comparison with other existing methods.

Adaptive fuzzy prescribed performance control for MIMO nonlinear systems with unknown control direction and unknown dead-zone inputs.

PubMed

Shi, Wuxi; Luo, Rui; Li, Baoquan

2017-01-01

In this study, an adaptive fuzzy prescribed performance control approach is developed for a class of uncertain multi-input and multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear systems with unknown control direction and unknown dead-zone inputs. The properties of symmetric matrix are exploited to design adaptive fuzzy prescribed performance controller, and a Nussbaum-type function is incorporated in the controller to estimate the unknown control direction. This method has two prominent advantages: it does not require the priori knowledge of control direction and only three parameters need to be updated on-line for this MIMO systems. It is proved that all the signals in the resulting closed-loop system are bounded and that the tracking errors converge to a small residual set with the prescribed performance bounds. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated by simulation results. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative local analysis of nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topcu, Ufuk

This thesis investigates quantitative methods for local robustness and performance analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems with polynomial vector fields. We propose measures to quantify systems' robustness against uncertainties in initial conditions (regions-of-attraction) and external disturbances (local reachability/gain analysis). S-procedure and sum-of-squares relaxations are used to translate Lyapunov-type characterizations to sum-of-squares optimization problems. These problems are typically bilinear/nonconvex (due to local analysis rather than global) and their size grows rapidly with state/uncertainty space dimension. Our approach is based on exploiting system theoretic interpretations of these optimization problems to reduce their complexity. We propose a methodology incorporating simulation data in formal proof construction enabling more reliable and efficient search for robustness and performance certificates compared to the direct use of general purpose solvers. This technique is adapted both to region-of-attraction and reachability analysis. We extend the analysis to uncertain systems by taking an intentionally simplistic and potentially conservative route, namely employing parameter-independent rather than parameter-dependent certificates. The conservatism is simply reduced by a branch-and-hound type refinement procedure. The main thrust of these methods is their suitability for parallel computing achieved by decomposing otherwise challenging problems into relatively tractable smaller ones. We demonstrate proposed methods on several small/medium size examples in each chapter and apply each method to a benchmark example with an uncertain short period pitch axis model of an aircraft. Additional practical issues leading to a more rigorous basis for the proposed methodology as well as promising further research topics are also addressed. We show that stability of linearized dynamics is not only necessary but also sufficient for the feasibility of the formulations in region-of-attraction analysis. Furthermore, we generalize an upper bound refinement procedure in local reachability/gain analysis which effectively generates non-polynomial certificates from polynomial ones. Finally, broader applicability of optimization-based tools stringently depends on the availability of scalable/hierarchial algorithms. As an initial step toward this direction, we propose a local small-gain theorem and apply to stability region analysis in the presence of unmodeled dynamics.

Effective production planning for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand: MRP Vs demand-driven MRP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shofa, M. J.; Moeis, A. O.; Restiana, N.

2018-04-01

MRP as a production planning system is appropriate for the deterministic environment. Unfortunately, most production systems such as customer demands are stochastic, so that MRP is inappropriate at the time. Demand-Driven MRP (DDMRP) is new approach for production planning system dealing with demand uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to compare the MRP and DDMRP for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand in terms of average inventory levels. The evaluation is conducted through a discrete event simulation with the long lead time and uncertain demand scenarios. The next step is evaluating the performance of DDMRP by comparing the inventory level of DDMRP with MRP. As result, DDMRP is more effective production planning than MRP in terms of average inventory levels.

Adaptive backstepping control of train systems with traction/braking dynamics and uncertain resistive forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Qi; Song, Y. D.; Cai, Wenchuan

2011-09-01

Although backstepping control design approach has been widely utilised in many practical systems, little effort has been made in applying this useful method to train systems. The main purpose of this paper is to apply this popular control design technique to speed and position tracking control of high-speed trains. By integrating adaptive control with backstepping control, we develop a control scheme that is able to address not only the traction and braking dynamics ignored in most existing methods, but also the uncertain friction and aerodynamic drag forces arisen from uncertain resistance coefficients. As such, the resultant control algorithms are able to achieve high precision train position and speed tracking under varying operation railway conditions, as validated by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations.

Dealing with uncertainty in modeling intermittent water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, A. M.; Rycroft, C.; Wilkening, J.

2015-12-01

Intermittency in urban water supply affects hundreds of millions of people in cities around the world, impacting water quality and infrastructure. Building on previous work to dynamically model the transient flows in water distribution networks undergoing frequent filling and emptying, we now consider the hydraulic implications of uncertain input data. Water distribution networks undergoing intermittent supply are often poorly mapped, and household metering frequently ranges from patchy to nonexistent. In the face of uncertain pipe material, pipe slope, network connectivity, and outflow, we investigate how uncertainty affects dynamical modeling results. We furthermore identify which parameters exert the greatest influence on uncertainty, helping to prioritize data collection.

Adaptive Optimal Control Using Frequency Selective Information of the System Uncertainty With Application to Unmanned Aircraft.

PubMed

Maity, Arnab; Hocht, Leonhard; Heise, Christian; Holzapfel, Florian

2018-01-01

A new efficient adaptive optimal control approach is presented in this paper based on the indirect model reference adaptive control (MRAC) architecture for improvement of adaptation and tracking performance of the uncertain system. The system accounts here for both matched and unmatched unknown uncertainties that can act as plant as well as input effectiveness failures or damages. For adaptation of the unknown parameters of these uncertainties, the frequency selective learning approach is used. Its idea is to compute a filtered expression of the system uncertainty using multiple filters based on online instantaneous information, which is used for augmentation of the update law. It is capable of adjusting a sudden change in system dynamics without depending on high adaptation gains and can satisfy exponential parameter error convergence under certain conditions in the presence of structured matched and unmatched uncertainties as well. Additionally, the controller of the MRAC system is designed using a new optimal control method. This method is a new linear quadratic regulator-based optimal control formulation for both output regulation and command tracking problems. It provides a closed-form control solution. The proposed overall approach is applied in a control of lateral dynamics of an unmanned aircraft problem to show its effectiveness.

Robust design of (s, S) inventory policy parameters in supply chains with demand and lead time uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi Movahed, Kamran; Zhang, Zhi-Hai

2015-09-01

Demand and lead time uncertainties have significant effects on supply chain behaviour. In this paper, we present a single-product three-level multi-period supply chain with uncertain demands and lead times by using robust techniques to study the managerial insights of the supply chain inventory system under uncertainty. We formulate this problem as a robust mixed-integer linear program with minimised expected cost and total cost variation to determine the optimal (s, S) values of the inventory parameters. Several numerical studies are performed to investigate the supply chain behaviour. Useful guidelines for the design of a robust supply chain are also provided. Results show that the order variance and the expected cost in a supply chain significantly increase when the manufacturer's review period is an integer ratio of the distributor's and the retailer's review periods.

Form of prior for constrained thermodynamic processes with uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aneja, Preety; Johal, Ramandeep S.

2015-05-01

We consider the quasi-static thermodynamic processes with constraints, but with additional uncertainty about the control parameters. Motivated by inductive reasoning, we assign prior distribution that provides a rational guess about likely values of the uncertain parameters. The priors are derived explicitly for both the entropy-conserving and the energy-conserving processes. The proposed form is useful when the constraint equation cannot be treated analytically. The inference is performed using spin-1/2 systems as models for heat reservoirs. Analytical results are derived in the high-temperatures limit. An agreement beyond linear response is found between the estimates of thermal quantities and their optimal values obtained from extremum principles. We also seek an intuitive interpretation for the prior and the estimated value of temperature obtained therefrom. We find that the prior over temperature becomes uniform over the quantity kept conserved in the process.

A Backscatter-Lidar Forward-Operator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geisinger, Armin; Behrendt, Andreas; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Vogel, Bernhard; Mattis, Ina; Flentje, Harald; Förstner, Jochen; Potthast, Roland

2015-04-01

We have developed a forward-operator which is capable of calculating virtual lidar profiles from atmospheric state simulations. The operator allows us to compare lidar measurements and model simulations based on the same measurement parameter: the lidar backscatter profile. This method simplifies qualitative comparisons and also makes quantitative comparisons possible, including statistical error quantification. Implemented into an aerosol-capable model system, the operator will act as a component to assimilate backscatter-lidar measurements. As many weather services maintain already networks of backscatter-lidars, such data are acquired already in an operational manner. To estimate and quantify errors due to missing or uncertain aerosol information, we started sensitivity studies about several scattering parameters such as the aerosol size and both the real and imaginary part of the complex index of refraction. Furthermore, quantitative and statistical comparisons between measurements and virtual measurements are shown in this study, i.e. applying the backscatter-lidar forward-operator on model output.

Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vavrina, Matthew A.; Newman, Clark P.; Slojkowski, Steven E.; Carpenter, J. Russell

2014-01-01

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

Towards adjoint-based inversion of time-dependent mantle convection with nonlinear viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dunzhu; Gurnis, Michael; Stadler, Georg

2017-04-01

We develop and study an adjoint-based inversion method for the simultaneous recovery of initial temperature conditions and viscosity parameters in time-dependent mantle convection from the current mantle temperature and historic plate motion. Based on a realistic rheological model with temperature-dependent and strain-rate-dependent viscosity, we formulate the inversion as a PDE-constrained optimization problem. The objective functional includes the misfit of surface velocity (plate motion) history, the misfit of the current mantle temperature, and a regularization for the uncertain initial condition. The gradient of this functional with respect to the initial temperature and the uncertain viscosity parameters is computed by solving the adjoint of the mantle convection equations. This gradient is used in a pre-conditioned quasi-Newton minimization algorithm. We study the prospects and limitations of the inversion, as well as the computational performance of the method using two synthetic problems, a sinking cylinder and a realistic subduction model. The subduction model is characterized by the migration of a ridge toward a trench whereby both plate motions and subduction evolve. The results demonstrate: (1) for known viscosity parameters, the initial temperature can be well recovered, as in previous initial condition-only inversions where the effective viscosity was given; (2) for known initial temperature, viscosity parameters can be recovered accurately, despite the existence of trade-offs due to ill-conditioning; (3) for the joint inversion of initial condition and viscosity parameters, initial condition and effective viscosity can be reasonably recovered, but the high dimension of the parameter space and the resulting ill-posedness may limit recovery of viscosity parameters.

Distributed Synchronization Control of Multiagent Systems With Unknown Nonlinearities.

PubMed

Su, Shize; Lin, Zongli; Garcia, Alfredo

2016-01-01

This paper revisits the distributed adaptive control problem for synchronization of multiagent systems where the dynamics of the agents are nonlinear, nonidentical, unknown, and subject to external disturbances. Two communication topologies, represented, respectively, by a fixed strongly-connected directed graph and by a switching connected undirected graph, are considered. Under both of these communication topologies, we use distributed neural networks to approximate the uncertain dynamics. Decentralized adaptive control protocols are then constructed to solve the cooperative tracker problem, the problem of synchronization of all follower agents to a leader agent. In particular, we show that, under the proposed decentralized control protocols, the synchronization errors are ultimately bounded, and their ultimate bounds can be reduced arbitrarily by choosing the control parameter appropriately. Simulation study verifies the effectiveness of our proposed protocols.

Multiple point statistical simulation using uncertain (soft) conditional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Vu, Le Thanh; Mosegaard, Klaus; Cordua, Knud Skou

2018-05-01

Geostatistical simulation methods have been used to quantify spatial variability of reservoir models since the 80s. In the last two decades, state of the art simulation methods have changed from being based on covariance-based 2-point statistics to multiple-point statistics (MPS), that allow simulation of more realistic Earth-structures. In addition, increasing amounts of geo-information (geophysical, geological, etc.) from multiple sources are being collected. This pose the problem of integration of these different sources of information, such that decisions related to reservoir models can be taken on an as informed base as possible. In principle, though difficult in practice, this can be achieved using computationally expensive Monte Carlo methods. Here we investigate the use of sequential simulation based MPS simulation methods conditional to uncertain (soft) data, as a computational efficient alternative. First, it is demonstrated that current implementations of sequential simulation based on MPS (e.g. SNESIM, ENESIM and Direct Sampling) do not account properly for uncertain conditional information, due to a combination of using only co-located information, and a random simulation path. Then, we suggest two approaches that better account for the available uncertain information. The first make use of a preferential simulation path, where more informed model parameters are visited preferentially to less informed ones. The second approach involves using non co-located uncertain information. For different types of available data, these approaches are demonstrated to produce simulation results similar to those obtained by the general Monte Carlo based approach. These methods allow MPS simulation to condition properly to uncertain (soft) data, and hence provides a computationally attractive approach for integration of information about a reservoir model.

The hydraulic capacity of deteriorating sewer systems.

PubMed

Pollert, J; Ugarelli, R; Saegrov, S; Schilling, W; Di Federico, V

2005-01-01

Sewer and wastewater systems suffer from insufficient capacity, construction flaws and pipe deterioration. Consequences are structural failures, local floods, surface erosion and pollution of receiving waters bodies. European cities spend in the order of five billion Euro per year for wastewater network rehabilitation. This amount is estimated to increase due to network ageing. The project CARE-S (Computer Aided RE-habilitation of Sewer Networks) deals with sewer and storm water networks. The final project goal is to develop integrated software, which provides the most cost-efficient system of maintenance, repair and rehabilitation of sewer networks. Decisions on investments in rehabilitation often have to be made with uncertain information about the structural condition and the hydraulic performance of a sewer system. Because of this, decision-making involves considerable risks. This paper presents the results of research focused on the study of hydraulic effects caused by failures due to temporal decline of sewer systems. Hydraulic simulations are usually carried out by running commercial models that apply, as input, default values of parameters that strongly influence results. Using CCTV inspections information as dataset to catalogue principal types of failures affecting pipes, a 3D model was used to evaluate their hydraulic consequences. The translation of failures effects in parameters values producing the same hydraulic conditions caused by failures was carried out through the comparison of laboratory experiences and 3D simulations results. Those parameters could be the input of 1D commercial models instead of the default values commonly inserted.

Bayesian source tracking via focalization and marginalization in an uncertain Mediterranean Sea environment.

PubMed

Dosso, Stan E; Wilmut, Michael J; Nielsen, Peter L

2010-07-01

This paper applies Bayesian source tracking in an uncertain environment to Mediterranean Sea data, and investigates the resulting tracks and track uncertainties as a function of data information content (number of data time-segments, number of frequencies, and signal-to-noise ratio) and of prior information (environmental uncertainties and source-velocity constraints). To track low-level sources, acoustic data recorded for multiple time segments (corresponding to multiple source positions along the track) are inverted simultaneously. Environmental uncertainty is addressed by including unknown water-column and seabed properties as nuisance parameters in an augmented inversion. Two approaches are considered: Focalization-tracking maximizes the posterior probability density (PPD) over the unknown source and environmental parameters. Marginalization-tracking integrates the PPD over environmental parameters to obtain a sequence of joint marginal probability distributions over source coordinates, from which the most-probable track and track uncertainties can be extracted. Both approaches apply track constraints on the maximum allowable vertical and radial source velocity. The two approaches are applied for towed-source acoustic data recorded at a vertical line array at a shallow-water test site in the Mediterranean Sea where previous geoacoustic studies have been carried out.

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis ismore » conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. In conclusion, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.« less

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis ismore » conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. Finally, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.« less

Robust Adaptive Synchronization of Ring Configured Uncertain Chaotic FitzHugh–Nagumo Neurons under Direction-Dependent Coupling

PubMed Central

Iqbal, Muhammad; Rehan, Muhammad; Hong, Keum-Shik

2018-01-01

This paper exploits the dynamical modeling, behavior analysis, and synchronization of a network of four different FitzHugh–Nagumo (FHN) neurons with unknown parameters linked in a ring configuration under direction-dependent coupling. The main purpose is to investigate a robust adaptive control law for the synchronization of uncertain and perturbed neurons, communicating in a medium of bidirectional coupling. The neurons are assumed to be different and interconnected in a ring structure. The strength of the gap junctions is taken to be different for each link in the network, owing to the inter-neuronal coupling medium properties. Robust adaptive control mechanism based on Lyapunov stability analysis is employed and theoretical criteria are derived to realize the synchronization of the network of four FHN neurons in a ring form with unknown parameters under direction-dependent coupling and disturbances. The proposed scheme for synchronization of dissimilar neurons, under external electrical stimuli, coupled in a ring communication topology, having all parameters unknown, and subject to directional coupling medium and perturbations, is addressed for the first time as per our knowledge. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed strategy, simulation results are provided. PMID:29535622

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

DOE PAGES

Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; ...

2018-02-09

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis ismore » conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. In conclusion, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.« less

Application of Bayesian geostatistics for evaluation of mass discharge uncertainty at contaminated sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troldborg, Mads; Nowak, Wolfgang; Lange, Ida V.; Santos, Marta C.; Binning, Philip J.; Bjerg, Poul L.

2012-09-01

Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used when assessing risks of groundwater contamination and designing remedial systems at contaminated sites. Such estimates are, however, rather uncertain as they integrate uncertain spatial distributions of both concentration and groundwater flow. Here a geostatistical simulation method for quantifying the uncertainty of the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane is presented. The method accounts for (1) heterogeneity of both the flow field and the concentration distribution through Bayesian geostatistics, (2) measurement uncertainty, and (3) uncertain source zone and transport parameters. The method generates conditional realizations of the spatial flow and concentration distribution. An analytical macrodispersive transport solution is employed to simulate the mean concentration distribution, and a geostatistical model of the Box-Cox transformed concentration data is used to simulate observed deviations from this mean solution. By combining the flow and concentration realizations, a mass discharge probability distribution is obtained. The method has the advantage of avoiding the heavy computational burden of three-dimensional numerical flow and transport simulation coupled with geostatistical inversion. It may therefore be of practical relevance to practitioners compared to existing methods that are either too simple or computationally demanding. The method is demonstrated on a field site contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. For this site, we show that including a physically meaningful concentration trend and the cosimulation of hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic gradient across the transect helps constrain the mass discharge uncertainty. The number of sampling points required for accurate mass discharge estimation and the relative influence of different data types on mass discharge uncertainty is discussed.

Effects of modeling errors on trajectory predictions in air traffic control automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Michael R. C.; Zhao, Yiyuan; Slattery, Rhonda

1996-01-01

Air traffic control automation synthesizes aircraft trajectories for the generation of advisories. Trajectory computation employs models of aircraft performances and weather conditions. In contrast, actual trajectories are flown in real aircraft under actual conditions. Since synthetic trajectories are used in landing scheduling and conflict probing, it is very important to understand the differences between computed trajectories and actual trajectories. This paper examines the effects of aircraft modeling errors on the accuracy of trajectory predictions in air traffic control automation. Three-dimensional point-mass aircraft equations of motion are assumed to be able to generate actual aircraft flight paths. Modeling errors are described as uncertain parameters or uncertain input functions. Pilot or autopilot feedback actions are expressed as equality constraints to satisfy control objectives. A typical trajectory is defined by a series of flight segments with different control objectives for each flight segment and conditions that define segment transitions. A constrained linearization approach is used to analyze trajectory differences caused by various modeling errors by developing a linear time varying system that describes the trajectory errors, with expressions to transfer the trajectory errors across moving segment transitions. A numerical example is presented for a complete commercial aircraft descent trajectory consisting of several flight segments.

Interactions in Massive Colliding Wind Binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corcoran, M.

2012-01-01

The most massive stars (M> 60 Solar Mass) play crucial roles in altering the chemical and thermodynamic properties of their host galaxies. Stellar mass is the fundamental stellar parameter that determines their ancillary properties and which ultimately determines the fate of these stars and their influence on their galactic environs. Unfortunately, stellar mass becomes observationally and theoretically less well constrained as it increases. Theory becomes uncertain mostly because very massive stars are prone to strong, variable mass loss which is difficult to model. Observational constraints are uncertain too. Massive stars are rare, and massive binary stars (needed for dynamical determination of mass) are rarer still: and of these systems only a fraction have suitably high orbital inclinations for direct photometric and spectroscopic radial-velocity analysis. Even in the small number of cases in which a high-inclination binary near the upper mass limit can be identified, rotational broadening and contamination of spectral line features from thick circumstellar material (either natal clouds or produced by strong stellar wind driven mass loss from one or both of he stellar components) biases the analysis. In the wilds of the upper HR diagram, we're often left with indirect and circumstantial means of determining mass, a rather unsatisfactory state of affairs.

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR VERY HIGH ORDER MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

While there may in many cases be high potential for exposure of humans and ecosystems to chemicals released from a source, the degree to which this potential is realized is often uncertain. Conceptually, uncertainties are divided among parameters, model, and modeler during simula...

Uncertain viscoelastic models with fractional order: A new spectral tau method to study the numerical simulations of the solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadian, A.; Ismail, F.; Salahshour, S.; Baleanu, D.; Ghaemi, F.

2017-12-01

The analysis of the behaviors of physical phenomena is important to discover significant features of the character and the structure of mathematical models. Frequently the unknown parameters involve in the models are assumed to be unvarying over time. In reality, some of them are uncertain and implicitly depend on several factors. In this study, to consider such uncertainty in variables of the models, they are characterized based on the fuzzy notion. We propose here a new model based on fractional calculus to deal with the Kelvin-Voigt (KV) equation and non-Newtonian fluid behavior model with fuzzy parameters. A new and accurate numerical algorithm using a spectral tau technique based on the generalized fractional Legendre polynomials (GFLPs) is developed to solve those problems under uncertainty. Numerical simulations are carried out and the analysis of the results highlights the significant features of the new technique in comparison with the previous findings. A detailed error analysis is also carried out and discussed.

State-space self-tuner for on-line adaptive control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shieh, L. S.

1994-01-01

Dynamic systems, such as flight vehicles, satellites and space stations, operating in real environments, constantly face parameter and/or structural variations owing to nonlinear behavior of actuators, failure of sensors, changes in operating conditions, disturbances acting on the system, etc. In the past three decades, adaptive control has been shown to be effective in dealing with dynamic systems in the presence of parameter uncertainties, structural perturbations, random disturbances and environmental variations. Among the existing adaptive control methodologies, the state-space self-tuning control methods, initially proposed by us, are shown to be effective in designing advanced adaptive controllers for multivariable systems. In our approaches, we have embedded the standard Kalman state-estimation algorithm into an online parameter estimation algorithm. Thus, the advanced state-feedback controllers can be easily established for digital adaptive control of continuous-time stochastic multivariable systems. A state-space self-tuner for a general multivariable stochastic system has been developed and successfully applied to the space station for on-line adaptive control. Also, a technique for multistage design of an optimal momentum management controller for the space station has been developed and reported in. Moreover, we have successfully developed various digital redesign techniques which can convert a continuous-time controller to an equivalent digital controller. As a result, the expensive and unreliable continuous-time controller can be implemented using low-cost and high performance microprocessors. Recently, we have developed a new hybrid state-space self tuner using a new dual-rate sampling scheme for on-line adaptive control of continuous-time uncertain systems.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 1. Theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yen, Chung-Cheng; Guymon, Gary L.

1990-01-01

An efficient probabilistic model is developed and cascaded with a deterministic model for predicting water table elevations in regional aquifers. The objective is to quantify model uncertainty where precise estimates of water table elevations may be required. The probabilistic model is based on the two-point probability method which only requires prior knowledge of uncertain variables mean and coefficient of variation. The two-point estimate method is theoretically developed and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of comparisons using hypothetical determinisitic problems indicate that the two-point estimate method is only generally valid for linear problems where the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters (for example, storage coefficient and hydraulic conductivity) is small. The two-point estimate method may be applied to slightly nonlinear problems with good results, provided coefficients of variation are small. In such cases, the two-point estimate method is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo method provided the number of uncertain variables is less than eight.

An Efficient Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach to Modeling Regional Groundwater Flow: 1. Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Chung-Cheng; Guymon, Gary L.

1990-07-01

An efficient probabilistic model is developed and cascaded with a deterministic model for predicting water table elevations in regional aquifers. The objective is to quantify model uncertainty where precise estimates of water table elevations may be required. The probabilistic model is based on the two-point probability method which only requires prior knowledge of uncertain variables mean and coefficient of variation. The two-point estimate method is theoretically developed and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of comparisons using hypothetical determinisitic problems indicate that the two-point estimate method is only generally valid for linear problems where the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters (for example, storage coefficient and hydraulic conductivity) is small. The two-point estimate method may be applied to slightly nonlinear problems with good results, provided coefficients of variation are small. In such cases, the two-point estimate method is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo method provided the number of uncertain variables is less than eight.

A Time-Space Domain Information Fusion Method for Specific Emitter Identification Based on Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory.

PubMed

Jiang, Wen; Cao, Ying; Yang, Lin; He, Zichang

2017-08-28

Specific emitter identification plays an important role in contemporary military affairs. However, most of the existing specific emitter identification methods haven't taken into account the processing of uncertain information. Therefore, this paper proposes a time-space domain information fusion method based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, which has the ability to deal with uncertain information in the process of specific emitter identification. In this paper, radars will generate a group of evidence respectively based on the information they obtained, and our main task is to fuse the multiple groups of evidence to get a reasonable result. Within the framework of recursive centralized fusion model, the proposed method incorporates a correlation coefficient, which measures the relevance between evidence and a quantum mechanical approach, which is based on the parameters of radar itself. The simulation results of an illustrative example demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively deal with uncertain information and get a reasonable recognition result.

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling parameter for the aerosols. The estimation method is computationally fast and can be used with more complex models where climate sensitivity is diagnosed rather than prescribed. The parameter estimates can be used to create probabilistic climate projections using the UVic ESCM model in future studies.

Control of Uncertain Systems under Constraints: Switching Horizon Predictive Control of Persistently Disturbed Input-Saturated Plants

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

on at any time from a family of candidate feedback-gains so as to control a discrete- time input-saturated LTI system possibly subject to persistent... times robustness Mosca, E. (2006) Control of Uncertain Systems under Constraints: Switching Horizon Predictive Control of Persistently Disturbed...feedback controls u = f(x̂) (3) so as to ensure, under suitable conditions, stability in the noiseless case as well as finite l∞-induced gain of the

Optimization of Biomathematical Model Predictions for Cognitive Performance Impairment in Individuals: Accounting for Unknown Traits and Uncertain States in Homeostatic and Circadian Processes

PubMed Central

Van Dongen, Hans P. A.; Mott, Christopher G.; Huang, Jen-Kuang; Mollicone, Daniel J.; McKenzie, Frederic D.; Dinges, David F.

2007-01-01

Current biomathematical models of fatigue and performance do not accurately predict cognitive performance for individuals with a priori unknown degrees of trait vulnerability to sleep loss, do not predict performance reliably when initial conditions are uncertain, and do not yield statistically valid estimates of prediction accuracy. These limitations diminish their usefulness for predicting the performance of individuals in operational environments. To overcome these 3 limitations, a novel modeling approach was developed, based on the expansion of a statistical technique called Bayesian forecasting. The expanded Bayesian forecasting procedure was implemented in the two-process model of sleep regulation, which has been used to predict performance on the basis of the combination of a sleep homeostatic process and a circadian process. Employing the two-process model with the Bayesian forecasting procedure to predict performance for individual subjects in the face of unknown traits and uncertain states entailed subject-specific optimization of 3 trait parameters (homeostatic build-up rate, circadian amplitude, and basal performance level) and 2 initial state parameters (initial homeostatic state and circadian phase angle). Prior information about the distribution of the trait parameters in the population at large was extracted from psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) performance measurements in 10 subjects who had participated in a laboratory experiment with 88 h of total sleep deprivation. The PVT performance data of 3 additional subjects in this experiment were set aside beforehand for use in prospective computer simulations. The simulations involved updating the subject-specific model parameters every time the next performance measurement became available, and then predicting performance 24 h ahead. Comparison of the predictions to the subjects' actual data revealed that as more data became available for the individuals at hand, the performance predictions became increasingly more accurate and had progressively smaller 95% confidence intervals, as the model parameters converged efficiently to those that best characterized each individual. Even when more challenging simulations were run (mimicking a change in the initial homeostatic state; simulating the data to be sparse), the predictions were still considerably more accurate than would have been achieved by the two-process model alone. Although the work described here is still limited to periods of consolidated wakefulness with stable circadian rhythms, the results obtained thus far indicate that the Bayesian forecasting procedure can successfully overcome some of the major outstanding challenges for biomathematical prediction of cognitive performance in operational settings. Citation: Van Dongen HPA; Mott CG; Huang JK; Mollicone DJ; McKenzie FD; Dinges DF. Optimization of biomathematical model predictions for cognitive performance impairment in individuals: accounting for unknown traits and uncertain states in homeostatic and circadian processes. SLEEP 2007;30(9):1129-1143. PMID:17910385

Robust fixed-time synchronization for uncertain complex-valued neural networks with discontinuous activation functions.

PubMed

Ding, Xiaoshuai; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Alsaadi, Fuad E; Hayat, Tasawar

2017-06-01

This paper is concerned with the fixed-time synchronization for a class of complex-valued neural networks in the presence of discontinuous activation functions and parameter uncertainties. Fixed-time synchronization not only claims that the considered master-slave system realizes synchronization within a finite time segment, but also requires a uniform upper bound for such time intervals for all initial synchronization errors. To accomplish the target of fixed-time synchronization, a novel feedback control procedure is designed for the slave neural networks. By means of the Filippov discontinuity theories and Lyapunov stability theories, some sufficient conditions are established for the selection of control parameters to guarantee synchronization within a fixed time, while an upper bound of the settling time is acquired as well, which allows to be modulated to predefined values independently on initial conditions. Additionally, criteria of modified controller for assurance of fixed-time anti-synchronization are also derived for the same system. An example is included to illustrate the proposed methodologies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous vibration control and energy harvesting using actor-critic based reinforcement learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loong, Cheng Ning; Chang, C. C.; Dimitrakopoulos, Elias G.

2018-03-01

Mitigating excessive vibration of civil engineering structures using various types of devices has been a conspicuous research topic in the past few decades. Some devices, such as electromagnetic transducers, which have a capability of exerting control forces while simultaneously harvesting energy, have been proposed recently. These devices make possible a self-regenerative system that can semi-actively mitigate structural vibration without the need of external energy. Integrating mechanical, electrical components, and control algorithms, these devices open up a new research domain that needs to be addressed. In this study, the feasibility of using an actor-critic based reinforcement learning control algorithm for simultaneous vibration control and energy harvesting for a civil engineering structure is investigated. The actor-critic based reinforcement learning control algorithm is a real-time, model-free adaptive technique that can adjust the controller parameters based on observations and reward signals without knowing the system characteristics. It is suitable for the control of a partially known nonlinear system with uncertain parameters. The feasibility of implementing this algorithm on a building structure equipped with an electromagnetic damper will be investigated in this study. Issues related to the modelling of learning algorithm, initialization and convergence will be presented and discussed.

Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.

2003-04-01

Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Technical abstract: Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, we conduct an uncertainty analys...

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

Real-Time Robust Adaptive Modeling and Scheduling for an Electronic Commerce Server

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Bing; Ruan, Chun

With the increasing importance and pervasiveness of Internet services, it is becoming a challenge for the proliferation of electronic commerce services to provide performance guarantees under extreme overload. This paper describes a real-time optimization modeling and scheduling approach for performance guarantee of electronic commerce servers. We show that an electronic commerce server may be simulated as a multi-tank system. A robust adaptive server model is subject to unknown additive load disturbances and uncertain model matching. Overload control techniques are based on adaptive admission control to achieve timing guarantees. We evaluate the performance of the model using a complex simulation that is subjected to varying model parameters and massive overload.

Global exponential stability for switched memristive neural networks with time-varying delays.

PubMed

Xin, Youming; Li, Yuxia; Cheng, Zunshui; Huang, Xia

2016-08-01

This paper considers the problem of exponential stability for switched memristive neural networks (MNNs) with time-varying delays. Different from most of the existing papers, we model a memristor as a continuous system, and view switched MNNs as switched neural networks with uncertain time-varying parameters. Based on average dwell time technique, mode-dependent average dwell time technique and multiple Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach, two conditions are derived to design the switching signal and guarantee the exponential stability of the considered neural networks, which are delay-dependent and formulated by linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Finally, the effectiveness of the theoretical results is demonstrated by two numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic modeling of percutaneous absorption for risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ho, Clifford Kuofei

Chemical transport through human skin can play a significant role in human exposure to toxic chemicals in the workplace, as well as to chemical/biological warfare agents in the battlefield. The viability of transdermal drug delivery also relies on chemical transport processes through the skin. Models of percutaneous absorption are needed for risk-based exposure assessments and drug-delivery analyses, but previous mechanistic models have been largely deterministic. A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of percutaneous absorption of chemicals has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes that may be important to risk-based assessments. Penetration routes through the skinmore » that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times. This probabilistic analysis of percutaneous absorption (PAPA) method has been developed to improve risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug-delivery analyses, where parameters and processes can be highly uncertain.« less

Fear and Trembling: Hong Kong Librarians Face Their Uncertain Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chepesiuk, Ron

1992-01-01

Discussion of the possible changes in Hong Kong in 1997 when rule passes to the People's Republic of China focuses on the uncertain future of libraries and librarians. Topics discussed include the political climate; the departure of qualified Chinese librarians; and the growth of libraries and computerized systems. (LRW)

Telerobotic control of a mobile coordinated robotic server. M.S. Thesis Annual Technical Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Gordon

1993-01-01

The annual report on telerobotic control of a mobile coordinated robotic server is presented. The goal of this effort is to develop advanced control methods for flexible space manipulator systems. As such, an adaptive fuzzy logic controller was developed in which model structure as well as parameter constraints are not required for compensation. The work builds upon previous work on fuzzy logic controllers. Fuzzy logic controllers have been growing in importance in the field of automatic feedback control. Hardware controllers using fuzzy logic have become available as an alternative to the traditional PID controllers. Software has also been introduced to aid in the development of fuzzy logic rule-bases. The advantages of using fuzzy logic controllers include the ability to merge the experience and intuition of expert operators into the rule-base and that a model of the system is not required to construct the controller. A drawback of the classical fuzzy logic controller, however, is the many parameters needed to be turned off-line prior to application in the closed-loop. In this report, an adaptive fuzzy logic controller is developed requiring no system model or model structure. The rule-base is defined to approximate a state-feedback controller while a second fuzzy logic algorithm varies, on-line, parameters of the defining controller. Results indicate the approach is viable for on-line adaptive control of systems when the model is too complex or uncertain for application of other more classical control techniques.

Neural-network-based online HJB solution for optimal robust guaranteed cost control of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Liu, Derong; Wang, Ding; Wang, Fei-Yue; Li, Hongliang; Yang, Xiong

2014-12-01

In this paper, the infinite horizon optimal robust guaranteed cost control of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems is investigated using neural-network-based online solution of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. By establishing an appropriate bounded function and defining a modified cost function, the optimal robust guaranteed cost control problem is transformed into an optimal control problem. It can be observed that the optimal cost function of the nominal system is nothing but the optimal guaranteed cost of the original uncertain system. A critic neural network is constructed to facilitate the solution of the modified HJB equation corresponding to the nominal system. More importantly, an additional stabilizing term is introduced for helping to verify the stability, which reinforces the updating process of the weight vector and reduces the requirement of an initial stabilizing control. The uniform ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system is analyzed by using the Lyapunov approach as well. Two simulation examples are provided to verify the effectiveness of the present control approach.

UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anunziato, Alessandro

2016-04-01

The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is additionally increased by the not perfect knowledge of the initial and boundary conditions so that the response can change even with small variations of the input. The paper analyses a number of potential events in the Mediterranean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean and for each of them a large number of calculations is performed (Monte Carlo simulation) in order to identify the relative importance of each of the uncertain parameter that is adopted. It is shown that even if after several hours the variation on the estimate is reduces, still remains and in some cases it can lead to different conclusions if this information is used as alerting method. The cases considered are: a mild event in the Hellenic arc (Mag. 6.9), a relatively medium event in Algeria (Mag. 7.2) and a quite relevant event in the Gulf of Cadiz (Mag. 8.2).

A new smooth robust control design for uncertain nonlinear systems with non-vanishing disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xian, Bin; Zhang, Yao

2016-06-01

In this paper, we consider the control problem for a general class of nonlinear system subjected to uncertain dynamics and non-varnishing disturbances. A smooth nonlinear control algorithm is presented to tackle these uncertainties and disturbances. The proposed control design employs the integral of a nonlinear sigmoid function to compensate the uncertain dynamics, and achieve a uniformly semi-global practical asymptotic stable tracking control of the system outputs. A novel Lyapunov-based stability analysis is employed to prove the convergence of the tracking errors and the stability of the closed-loop system. Numerical simulation results on a two-link robot manipulator are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed control algorithm comparing with the layer-boundary sliding mode controller and the robust of integration of sign of error control design. Furthermore, real-time experiment results for the attitude control of a quadrotor helicopter are also included to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Event-triggered decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant control of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with actuator failures.

PubMed

Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

2018-06-01

This paper investigates the event-triggered decentralized adaptive tracking problem of a class of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with unexpected actuator failures. It is assumed that local control signals are transmitted to local actuators with time-varying faults whenever predefined conditions for triggering events are satisfied. Compared with the existing control-input-based event-triggering strategy for adaptive control of uncertain nonlinear systems, the aim of this paper is to propose a tracking-error-based event-triggering strategy in the decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant tracking framework. The proposed approach can relax drastic changes in control inputs caused by actuator faults in the existing triggering strategy. The stability of the proposed event-triggering control system is analyzed in the Lyapunov sense. Finally, simulation comparisons of the proposed and existing approaches are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical result in the presence of actuator faults. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR INTEGRATED HUMAN HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS WASTE DISPOSAL

EPA Science Inventory

While there is a high potential for exposure of humans and ecosystems to chemicals released from hazardous waste sites, the degree to which this potential is realized is often uncertain. Conceptually divided among parameter, model, and modeler uncertainties imparted during simula...

Adaptive proximate time-optimal servomechanisms - Continuous time case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Workman, M. L.; Kosut, R. L.; Franklin, G. F.

1987-01-01

A Proximate Time-Optimal Servo (PTOS) is developed, along with conditions for its stability. An algorithm is proposed for adapting the PTOS (APTOS) to improve performance in the face of uncertain plant parameters. Under ideal conditions APTOS is shown to be uniformly asymptotically stable. Simulation results demonstrate the predicted performance.

Are quantitative sensitivity analysis methods always reliable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.

2016-12-01

Physical parameterizations developed to represent subgrid-scale physical processes include various uncertain parameters, leading to large uncertainties in today's Earth System Models (ESMs). Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is an efficient approach to quantitatively determine how the uncertainty of the evaluation metric can be apportioned to each parameter. Also, SA can identify the most influential parameters, as a result to reduce the high dimensional parametric space. In previous studies, some SA-based approaches, such as Sobol' and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing (FAST), divide the parameters into sensitive and insensitive groups respectively. The first one is reserved but the other is eliminated for certain scientific study. However, these approaches ignore the disappearance of the interactive effects between the reserved parameters and the eliminated ones, which are also part of the total sensitive indices. Therefore, the wrong sensitive parameters might be identified by these traditional SA approaches and tools. In this study, we propose a dynamic global sensitivity analysis method (DGSAM), which iteratively removes the least important parameter until there are only two parameters left. We use the CLM-CASA, a global terrestrial model, as an example to verify our findings with different sample sizes ranging from 7000 to 280000. The result shows DGSAM has abilities to identify more influential parameters, which is confirmed by parameter calibration experiments using four popular optimization methods. For example, optimization using Top3 parameters filtered by DGSAM could achieve substantial improvement against Sobol' by 10%. Furthermore, the current computational cost for calibration has been reduced to 1/6 of the original one. In future, it is necessary to explore alternative SA methods emphasizing parameter interactions.

Damage identification using inverse methods.

PubMed

Friswell, Michael I

2007-02-15

This paper gives an overview of the use of inverse methods in damage detection and location, using measured vibration data. Inverse problems require the use of a model and the identification of uncertain parameters of this model. Damage is often local in nature and although the effect of the loss of stiffness may require only a small number of parameters, the lack of knowledge of the location means that a large number of candidate parameters must be included. This paper discusses a number of problems that exist with this approach to health monitoring, including modelling error, environmental effects, damage localization and regularization.

Prediction-based control for LTI systems with uncertain time-varying delays and partial state knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Léchappé, V.; Moulay, E.; Plestan, F.

2018-06-01

The stability of a prediction-based controller for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is studied in the presence of time-varying input and output delays. The uncertain delay case is treated as well as the partial state knowledge case. The reduction method is used in order to prove the convergence of the closed-loop system including the state observer, the predictor and the plant. Explicit conditions that guarantee the closed-loop stability are given, thanks to a Lyapunov-Razumikhin analysis. Simulations illustrate the theoretical results.

Adaptive NN tracking control of uncertain nonlinear discrete-time systems with nonaffine dead-zone input.

PubMed

Liu, Yan-Jun; Tong, Shaocheng

2015-03-01

In the paper, an adaptive tracking control design is studied for a class of nonlinear discrete-time systems with dead-zone input. The considered systems are of the nonaffine pure-feedback form and the dead-zone input appears nonlinearly in the systems. The contributions of the paper are that: 1) it is for the first time to investigate the control problem for this class of discrete-time systems with dead-zone; 2) there are major difficulties for stabilizing such systems and in order to overcome the difficulties, the systems are transformed into an n-step-ahead predictor but nonaffine function is still existent; and 3) an adaptive compensative term is constructed to compensate for the parameters of the dead-zone. The neural networks are used to approximate the unknown functions in the transformed systems. Based on the Lyapunov theory, it is proven that all the signals in the closed-loop system are semi-globally uniformly ultimately bounded and the tracking error converges to a small neighborhood of zero. Two simulation examples are provided to verify the effectiveness of the control approach in the paper.

On the formulation of a minimal uncertainty model for robust control with structured uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Chang, B.-C.; Fischl, Robert

1991-01-01

In the design and analysis of robust control systems for uncertain plants, representing the system transfer matrix in the form of what has come to be termed an M-delta model has become widely accepted and applied in the robust control literature. The M represents a transfer function matrix M(s) of the nominal closed loop system, and the delta represents an uncertainty matrix acting on M(s). The nominal closed loop system M(s) results from closing the feedback control system, K(s), around a nominal plant interconnection structure P(s). The uncertainty can arise from various sources, such as structured uncertainty from parameter variations or multiple unsaturated uncertainties from unmodeled dynamics and other neglected phenomena. In general, delta is a block diagonal matrix, but for real parameter variations delta is a diagonal matrix of real elements. Conceptually, the M-delta structure can always be formed for any linear interconnection of inputs, outputs, transfer functions, parameter variations, and perturbations. However, very little of the currently available literature addresses computational methods for obtaining this structure, and none of this literature addresses a general methodology for obtaining a minimal M-delta model for a wide class of uncertainty, where the term minimal refers to the dimension of the delta matrix. Since having a minimally dimensioned delta matrix would improve the efficiency of structured singular value (or multivariable stability margin) computations, a method of obtaining a minimal M-delta would be useful. Hence, a method of obtaining the interconnection system P(s) is required. A generalized procedure for obtaining a minimal P-delta structure for systems with real parameter variations is presented. Using this model, the minimal M-delta model can then be easily obtained by closing the feedback loop. The procedure involves representing the system in a cascade-form state-space realization, determining the minimal uncertainty matrix, delta, and constructing the state-space representation of P(s). Three examples are presented to illustrate the procedure.

An adaptive least-squares global sensitivity method and application to a plasma-coupled combustion prediction with parametric correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Kunkun; Massa, Luca; Wang, Jonathan; Freund, Jonathan B.

2018-05-01

We introduce an efficient non-intrusive surrogate-based methodology for global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. Modified covariance-based sensitivity indices (mCov-SI) are defined for outputs that reflect correlated effects. The overall approach is applied to simulations of a complex plasma-coupled combustion system with disparate uncertain parameters in sub-models for chemical kinetics and a laser-induced breakdown ignition seed. The surrogate is based on an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) expansion, such as widely used in statistics, with orthogonal polynomials representing the ANOVA subspaces and a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) representing its multi-dimensional components. The coefficients of the PDD expansion are obtained using a least-squares regression, which both avoids the direct computation of high-dimensional integrals and affords an attractive flexibility in choosing sampling points. This facilitates importance sampling using a Bayesian calibrated posterior distribution, which is fast and thus particularly advantageous in common practical cases, such as our large-scale demonstration, for which the asymptotic convergence properties of polynomial expansions cannot be realized due to computation expense. Effort, instead, is focused on efficient finite-resolution sampling. Standard covariance-based sensitivity indices (Cov-SI) are employed to account for correlation of the uncertain parameters. Magnitude of Cov-SI is unfortunately unbounded, which can produce extremely large indices that limit their utility. Alternatively, mCov-SI are then proposed in order to bound this magnitude ∈ [ 0 , 1 ]. The polynomial expansion is coupled with an adaptive ANOVA strategy to provide an accurate surrogate as the union of several low-dimensional spaces, avoiding the typical computational cost of a high-dimensional expansion. It is also adaptively simplified according to the relative contribution of the different polynomials to the total variance. The approach is demonstrated for a laser-induced turbulent combustion simulation model, which includes parameters with correlated effects.

Optimal estimation and scheduling in aquifer management using the rapid feedback control method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbanidehno, Hojat; Kokkinaki, Amalia; Kitanidis, Peter K.; Darve, Eric

2017-12-01

Management of water resources systems often involves a large number of parameters, as in the case of large, spatially heterogeneous aquifers, and a large number of "noisy" observations, as in the case of pressure observation in wells. Optimizing the operation of such systems requires both searching among many possible solutions and utilizing new information as it becomes available. However, the computational cost of this task increases rapidly with the size of the problem to the extent that textbook optimization methods are practically impossible to apply. In this paper, we present a new computationally efficient technique as a practical alternative for optimally operating large-scale dynamical systems. The proposed method, which we term Rapid Feedback Controller (RFC), provides a practical approach for combined monitoring, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and optimal control for linear and nonlinear systems with a quadratic cost function. For illustration, we consider the case of a weakly nonlinear uncertain dynamical system with a quadratic objective function, specifically a two-dimensional heterogeneous aquifer management problem. To validate our method, we compare our results with the linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) method, which is the basic approach for feedback control. We show that the computational cost of the RFC scales only linearly with the number of unknowns, a great improvement compared to the basic LQG control with a computational cost that scales quadratically. We demonstrate that the RFC method can obtain the optimal control values at a greatly reduced computational cost compared to the conventional LQG algorithm with small and controllable losses in the accuracy of the state and parameter estimation.

A facility location model for municipal solid waste management system under uncertain environment.

PubMed

Yadav, Vinay; Bhurjee, A K; Karmakar, Subhankar; Dikshit, A K

2017-12-15

In municipal solid waste management system, decision makers have to develop an insight into the processes namely, waste generation, collection, transportation, processing, and disposal methods. Many parameters (e.g., waste generation rate, functioning costs of facilities, transportation cost, and revenues) in this system are associated with uncertainties. Often, these uncertainties of parameters need to be modeled under a situation of data scarcity for generating probability distribution function or membership function for stochastic mathematical programming or fuzzy mathematical programming respectively, with only information of extreme variations. Moreover, if uncertainties are ignored, then the problems like insufficient capacities of waste management facilities or improper utilization of available funds may be raised. To tackle uncertainties of these parameters in a more efficient manner an algorithm, based on interval analysis, has been developed. This algorithm is applied to find optimal solutions for a facility location model, which is formulated to select economically best locations of transfer stations in a hypothetical urban center. Transfer stations are an integral part of contemporary municipal solid waste management systems, and economic siting of transfer stations ensures financial sustainability of this system. The model is written in a mathematical programming language AMPL with KNITRO as a solver. The developed model selects five economically best locations out of ten potential locations with an optimum overall cost of [394,836, 757,440] Rs. 1 /day ([5906, 11,331] USD/day) approximately. Further, the requirement of uncertainty modeling is explained based on the results of sensitivity analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficient Optimization of Stimuli for Model-Based Design of Experiments to Resolve Dynamical Uncertainty.

PubMed

Mdluli, Thembi; Buzzard, Gregery T; Rundell, Ann E

2015-09-01

This model-based design of experiments (MBDOE) method determines the input magnitudes of an experimental stimuli to apply and the associated measurements that should be taken to optimally constrain the uncertain dynamics of a biological system under study. The ideal global solution for this experiment design problem is generally computationally intractable because of parametric uncertainties in the mathematical model of the biological system. Others have addressed this issue by limiting the solution to a local estimate of the model parameters. Here we present an approach that is independent of the local parameter constraint. This approach is made computationally efficient and tractable by the use of: (1) sparse grid interpolation that approximates the biological system dynamics, (2) representative parameters that uniformly represent the data-consistent dynamical space, and (3) probability weights of the represented experimentally distinguishable dynamics. Our approach identifies data-consistent representative parameters using sparse grid interpolants, constructs the optimal input sequence from a greedy search, and defines the associated optimal measurements using a scenario tree. We explore the optimality of this MBDOE algorithm using a 3-dimensional Hes1 model and a 19-dimensional T-cell receptor model. The 19-dimensional T-cell model also demonstrates the MBDOE algorithm's scalability to higher dimensions. In both cases, the dynamical uncertainty region that bounds the trajectories of the target system states were reduced by as much as 86% and 99% respectively after completing the designed experiments in silico. Our results suggest that for resolving dynamical uncertainty, the ability to design an input sequence paired with its associated measurements is particularly important when limited by the number of measurements.

Reconstructing Mammalian Sleep Dynamics with Data Assimilation

PubMed Central

Sedigh-Sarvestani, Madineh; Schiff, Steven J.; Gluckman, Bruce J.

2012-01-01

Data assimilation is a valuable tool in the study of any complex system, where measurements are incomplete, uncertain, or both. It enables the user to take advantage of all available information including experimental measurements and short-term model forecasts of a system. Although data assimilation has been used to study other biological systems, the study of the sleep-wake regulatory network has yet to benefit from this toolset. We present a data assimilation framework based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) for combining sparse measurements together with a relatively high-dimensional nonlinear computational model to estimate the state of a model of the sleep-wake regulatory system. We demonstrate with simulation studies that a few noisy variables can be used to accurately reconstruct the remaining hidden variables. We introduce a metric for ranking relative partial observability of computational models, within the UKF framework, that allows us to choose the optimal variables for measurement and also provides a methodology for optimizing framework parameters such as UKF covariance inflation. In addition, we demonstrate a parameter estimation method that allows us to track non-stationary model parameters and accommodate slow dynamics not included in the UKF filter model. Finally, we show that we can even use observed discretized sleep-state, which is not one of the model variables, to reconstruct model state and estimate unknown parameters. Sleep is implicated in many neurological disorders from epilepsy to schizophrenia, but simultaneous observation of the many brain components that regulate this behavior is difficult. We anticipate that this data assimilation framework will enable better understanding of the detailed interactions governing sleep and wake behavior and provide for better, more targeted, therapies. PMID:23209396

Efficient Optimization of Stimuli for Model-Based Design of Experiments to Resolve Dynamical Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Mdluli, Thembi; Buzzard, Gregery T.; Rundell, Ann E.

2015-01-01

This model-based design of experiments (MBDOE) method determines the input magnitudes of an experimental stimuli to apply and the associated measurements that should be taken to optimally constrain the uncertain dynamics of a biological system under study. The ideal global solution for this experiment design problem is generally computationally intractable because of parametric uncertainties in the mathematical model of the biological system. Others have addressed this issue by limiting the solution to a local estimate of the model parameters. Here we present an approach that is independent of the local parameter constraint. This approach is made computationally efficient and tractable by the use of: (1) sparse grid interpolation that approximates the biological system dynamics, (2) representative parameters that uniformly represent the data-consistent dynamical space, and (3) probability weights of the represented experimentally distinguishable dynamics. Our approach identifies data-consistent representative parameters using sparse grid interpolants, constructs the optimal input sequence from a greedy search, and defines the associated optimal measurements using a scenario tree. We explore the optimality of this MBDOE algorithm using a 3-dimensional Hes1 model and a 19-dimensional T-cell receptor model. The 19-dimensional T-cell model also demonstrates the MBDOE algorithm’s scalability to higher dimensions. In both cases, the dynamical uncertainty region that bounds the trajectories of the target system states were reduced by as much as 86% and 99% respectively after completing the designed experiments in silico. Our results suggest that for resolving dynamical uncertainty, the ability to design an input sequence paired with its associated measurements is particularly important when limited by the number of measurements. PMID:26379275

A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lienert, Sebastian; Joos, Fortunat

2018-05-01

A dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is applied in a probabilistic framework and benchmarking system to constrain uncertain model parameters by observations and to quantify carbon emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Processes featured in DGVMs include parameters which are prone to substantial uncertainty. To cope with these uncertainties Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is used to create a 1000-member perturbed parameter ensemble, which is then evaluated with a diverse set of global and spatiotemporally resolved observational constraints. We discuss the performance of the constrained ensemble and use it to formulate a new best-guess version of the model (LPX-Bern v1.4). The observationally constrained ensemble is used to investigate historical emissions due to LULCC (ELUC) and their sensitivity to model parametrization. We find a global ELUC estimate of 158 (108, 211) PgC (median and 90 % confidence interval) between 1800 and 2016. We compare ELUC to other estimates both globally and regionally. Spatial patterns are investigated and estimates of ELUC of the 10 countries with the largest contribution to the flux over the historical period are reported. We consider model versions with and without additional land-use processes (shifting cultivation and wood harvest) and find that the difference in global ELUC is on the same order of magnitude as parameter-induced uncertainty and in some cases could potentially even be offset with appropriate parameter choice.

Robust control for a biaxial servo with time delay system based on adaptive tuning technique.

PubMed

Chen, Tien-Chi; Yu, Chih-Hsien

2009-07-01

A robust control method for synchronizing a biaxial servo system motion is proposed in this paper. A new network based cross-coupled control and adaptive tuning techniques are used together to cancel out the skew error. The conventional fixed gain PID cross-coupled controller (CCC) is replaced with the adaptive cross-coupled controller (ACCC) in the proposed control scheme to maintain biaxial servo system synchronization motion. Adaptive-tuning PID (APID) position and velocity controllers provide the necessary control actions to maintain synchronization while following a variable command trajectory. A delay-time compensator (DTC) with an adaptive controller was augmented to set the time delay element, effectively moving it outside the closed loop, enhancing the stability of the robust controlled system. This scheme provides strong robustness with respect to uncertain dynamics and disturbances. The simulation and experimental results reveal that the proposed control structure adapts to a wide range of operating conditions and provides promising results under parameter variations and load changes.

Chaos Suppression in Fractional order Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator in Wind Turbine Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, Karthikeyan; Karthikeyan, Anitha; Duraisamy, Prakash

2017-06-01

In this paper we investigate the control of three-dimensional non-autonomous fractional-order uncertain model of a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) via a adaptive control technique. We derive a dimensionless fractional order model of the PMSM from the integer order presented in the literatures. Various dynamic properties of the fractional order model like eigen values, Lyapunov exponents, bifurcation and bicoherence are investigated. The system chaotic behavior for various orders of fractional calculus are presented. An adaptive controller is derived to suppress the chaotic oscillations of the fractional order model. As the direct Lyapunov stability analysis of the robust controller is difficult for a fractional order first derivative, we have derived a new lemma to analyze the stability of the system. Numerical simulations of the proposed chaos suppression methodology are given to prove the analytical results derived through which we show that for the derived adaptive controller and the parameter update law, the origin of the system for any bounded initial conditions is asymptotically stable.

Adaptive Fuzzy Bounded Control for Consensus of Multiple Strict-Feedback Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Tong, Shaocheng

2018-02-01

This paper studies the adaptive fuzzy bounded control problem for leader-follower multiagent systems, where each follower is modeled by the uncertain nonlinear strict-feedback system. Combining the fuzzy approximation with the dynamic surface control, an adaptive fuzzy control scheme is developed to guarantee the output consensus of all agents under directed communication topologies. Different from the existing results, the bounds of the control inputs are known as a priori, and they can be determined by the feedback control gains. To realize smooth and fast learning, a predictor is introduced to estimate each error surface, and the corresponding predictor error is employed to learn the optimal fuzzy parameter vector. It is proved that the developed adaptive fuzzy control scheme guarantees the uniformly ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop systems, and the tracking error converges to a small neighborhood of the origin. The simulation results and comparisons are provided to show the validity of the control strategy presented in this paper.

Nonlinear dynamics analysis of the spur gear system for railway locomotive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junguo; He, Guangyue; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yongxiang; Yao, Yuan

2017-02-01

Considering the factors such as the nonlinearity backlash, static transmission error and time-varying meshing stiffness, a three-degree-of-freedom torsional vibration model of spur gear transmission system for a typical locomotive is developed, in which the wheel/rail adhesion torque is considered as uncertain but bounded parameter. Meantime, the Ishikawa method is used for analysis and calculation of the time-varying mesh stiffness of the gear pair in meshing process. With the help of bifurcation diagrams, phase plane diagrams, Poincaré maps, time domain response diagrams and amplitude-frequency spectrums, the effects of the pinion speed and stiffness on the dynamic behavior of gear transmission system for locomotive are investigated in detail by using the numerical integration method. Numerical examples reveal various types of nonlinear phenomena and dynamic evolution mechanism involving one-period responses, multi-periodic responses, bifurcation and chaotic responses. Some research results present useful information to dynamic design and vibration control of the gear transmission system for railway locomotive.

Possible solution to the riddle of HD 82943 multiplanet system: the three-planet resonance 1:2:5?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baluev, Roman V.; Beaugé, Cristian

2014-03-01

We carry out a new analysis of the published radial velocity data for the planet-hosting star HD 82943. We include the recent Keck/HIRES measurements as well as the aged but much more numerous CORALIE data. We find that the CORALIE radial velocity measurements are polluted by a systematic annual variation which affected the robustness of many previous results. We show that after purging this variation, the residuals still contain a clear signature of an additional ˜1100 d periodicity. The latter variation leaves significant hints in all three independent radial velocity subsets that we analysed: the CORALIE data, the Keck data acquired prior to a hardware upgrade and the Keck data taken after the upgrade. We mainly treat this variation as a signature of a third planet in the system, although we cannot rule out other interpretations, such as long-term stellar activity. We find it easy to naturally obtain a stable three-planet radial velocity fit close to the three-planet mean-motion resonance 1:2:5, with the two main planets (those in the 1:2 resonance) in an aligned apsidal corotation. The dynamical status of the third planet is still uncertain: it may reside in as well as slightly out of the 5:2 resonance. We obtain the value of about 1075 d for its orbital period and ˜0.3MJup for its minimum mass, while the eccentric parameters are uncertain.

Sparse Polynomial Chaos Surrogate for ACME Land Model via Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargsyan, K.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Safta, C.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H. N.; Thornton, P. E.

2015-12-01

For computationally expensive climate models, Monte-Carlo approaches of exploring the input parameter space are often prohibitive due to slow convergence with respect to ensemble size. To alleviate this, we build inexpensive surrogates using uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods employing Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions that approximate the input-output relationships using as few model evaluations as possible. However, when many uncertain input parameters are present, such UQ studies suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In particular, for 50-100 input parameters non-adaptive PC representations have infeasible numbers of basis terms. To this end, we develop and employ Weighted Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing to learn the most important input parameter relationships for efficient, sparse PC surrogate construction with posterior uncertainty quantified due to insufficient data. Besides drastic dimensionality reduction, the uncertain surrogate can efficiently replace the model in computationally intensive studies such as forward uncertainty propagation and variance-based sensitivity analysis, as well as design optimization and parameter estimation using observational data. We applied the surrogate construction and variance-based uncertainty decomposition to Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) Land Model for several output QoIs at nearly 100 FLUXNET sites covering multiple plant functional types and climates, varying 65 input parameters over broad ranges of possible values. This work is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Electronics Cooling Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodla, Karthik K.; Murthy, Jayathi Y.; Garimella, Suresh V.

Optimization under uncertainty is a powerful methodology used in design and optimization to produce robust, reliable designs. Such an optimization methodology, employed when the input quantities of interest are uncertain, produces output uncertainties, helping the designer choose input parameters that would result in satisfactory thermal solutions. Apart from providing basic statistical information such as mean and standard deviation in the output quantities, auxiliary data from an uncertainty based optimization, such as local and global sensitivities, help the designer decide the input parameter(s) to which the output quantity of interest is most sensitive. This helps the design of experiments based on the most sensitive input parameter(s). A further crucial output of such a methodology is the solution to the inverse problem - finding the allowable uncertainty range in the input parameter(s), given an acceptable uncertainty range in the output quantity of interest...

Wind turbine model and loop shaping controller design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilev, Bogdan

2017-12-01

A model of a wind turbine is evaluated, consisting of: wind speed model, mechanical and electrical model of generator and tower oscillation model. Model of the whole system is linearized around of a nominal point. By using the linear model with uncertainties is synthesized a uncertain model. By using the uncertain model is developed a H∞ controller, which provide mode of stabilizing the rotor frequency and damping the tower oscillations. Finally is simulated work of nonlinear system and H∞ controller.

Design Flexibility for Uncertain Distributed Generation from Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Wu, Hongyu

2016-12-12

Uncertainty in the future adoption patterns for distributed energy resources (DERs) introduces a challenge for electric distribution system planning. This paper explores the potential for flexibility in design - also known as real options - to identify design solutions that may never emerge when future DER patterns are treated as deterministic. A test case for storage system design with uncertain distributed generation for solar photovoltaics (DGPV) demonstrates this approach and is used to study sensitivities to a range of techno-economic assumptions.

Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change

Treesearch

Seth J. Wenger; Nicholas A. Som; Daniel C. Dauwalter; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville; Charles H. Luce; Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Kurt D. Fausch; Bruce E. Rieman

2013-01-01

Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing...

Bayesian focalization: quantifying source localization with environmental uncertainty.

PubMed

Dosso, Stan E; Wilmut, Michael J

2007-05-01

This paper applies a Bayesian formulation to study ocean acoustic source localization as a function of uncertainty in environmental properties (water column and seabed) and of data information content [signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and number of frequencies]. The approach follows that of the optimum uncertain field processor [A. M. Richardson and L. W. Nolte, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 89, 2280-2284 (1991)], in that localization uncertainty is quantified by joint marginal probability distributions for source range and depth integrated over uncertain environmental properties. The integration is carried out here using Metropolis Gibbs' sampling for environmental parameters and heat-bath Gibbs' sampling for source location to provide efficient sampling over complicated parameter spaces. The approach is applied to acoustic data from a shallow-water site in the Mediterranean Sea where previous geoacoustic studies have been carried out. It is found that reliable localization requires a sufficient combination of prior (environmental) information and data information. For example, sources can be localized reliably for single-frequency data at low SNR (-3 dB) only with small environmental uncertainties, whereas successful localization with large environmental uncertainties requires higher SNR and/or multifrequency data.

Robust scalable stabilisability conditions for large-scale heterogeneous multi-agent systems with uncertain nonlinear interactions: towards a distributed computing architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfredi, Sabato

2016-06-01

Large-scale dynamic systems are becoming highly pervasive in their occurrence with applications ranging from system biology, environment monitoring, sensor networks, and power systems. They are characterised by high dimensionality, complexity, and uncertainty in the node dynamic/interactions that require more and more computational demanding methods for their analysis and control design, as well as the network size and node system/interaction complexity increase. Therefore, it is a challenging problem to find scalable computational method for distributed control design of large-scale networks. In this paper, we investigate the robust distributed stabilisation problem of large-scale nonlinear multi-agent systems (briefly MASs) composed of non-identical (heterogeneous) linear dynamical systems coupled by uncertain nonlinear time-varying interconnections. By employing Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique, new conditions are given for the distributed control design of large-scale MASs that can be easily solved by the toolbox of MATLAB. The stabilisability of each node dynamic is a sufficient assumption to design a global stabilising distributed control. The proposed approach improves some of the existing LMI-based results on MAS by both overcoming their computational limits and extending the applicative scenario to large-scale nonlinear heterogeneous MASs. Additionally, the proposed LMI conditions are further reduced in terms of computational requirement in the case of weakly heterogeneous MASs, which is a common scenario in real application where the network nodes and links are affected by parameter uncertainties. One of the main advantages of the proposed approach is to allow to move from a centralised towards a distributed computing architecture so that the expensive computation workload spent to solve LMIs may be shared among processors located at the networked nodes, thus increasing the scalability of the approach than the network size. Finally, a numerical example shows the applicability of the proposed method and its advantage in terms of computational complexity when compared with the existing approaches.

Stronger steerability criterion for more uncertain continuous-variable systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Priyanka; Pramanik, Tanumoy; Majumdar, A. S.

2015-10-01

We derive a fine-grained uncertainty relation for the measurement of two incompatible observables on a single quantum system of continuous variables, and show that continuous-variable systems are more uncertain than discrete-variable systems. Using the derived fine-grained uncertainty relation, we formulate a stronger steering criterion that is able to reveal the steerability of NOON states that has hitherto not been possible using other criteria. We further obtain a monogamy relation for our steering inequality which leads to an, in principle, improved lower bound on the secret key rate of a one-sided device independent quantum key distribution protocol for continuous variables.

Robust adaptive sliding mode control for uncertain systems with unknown time-varying delay input.

PubMed

Benamor, Anouar; Messaoud, Hassani

2018-05-02

This article focuses on robust adaptive sliding mode control law for uncertain discrete systems with unknown time-varying delay input, where the uncertainty is assumed unknown. The main results of this paper are divided into three phases. In the first phase, we propose a new sliding surface is derived within the Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). In the second phase, using the new sliding surface, the novel Robust Sliding Mode Control (RSMC) is proposed where the upper bound of uncertainty is supposed known. Finally, the novel approach of Robust Adaptive Sliding ModeControl (RASMC) has been defined for this type of systems, where the upper limit of uncertainty which is assumed unknown. In this new approach, we have estimate the upper limit of uncertainties and we have determined the control law based on a sliding surface that will converge to zero. This novel control laws are been validated in simulation on an uncertain numerical system with good results and comparative study. This efficiency is emphasized through the application of the new controls on the two physical systems which are the process trainer PT326 and hydraulic system two tanks. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The coordinating contracts of supply chain in a fuzzy decision environment.

PubMed

Sang, Shengju

2016-01-01

The rapid change of the product life cycle is making the parameters of the supply chain models more and more uncertain. Therefore, we consider the coordination mechanisms between one manufacturer and one retailer in a fuzzy decision marking environment, where the parameters of the models can be forecasted and expressed as the triangular fuzzy variables. The centralized decision-making system, two types of supply chain contracts, namely, the revenue sharing contract and the return contract are proposed. To obtain their optimal policies, the fuzzy set theory is adopted to solve these fuzzy models. Finally, three numerical examples are provided to analyze the impacts of the fuzziness of the market demand, retail price and salvage value of the product on the optimal solutions in two contracts. It shows that in order to obtain more fuzzy expected profits the retailer and the manufacturer should seek as low fuzziness of demand, high fuzziness of the retail price and the salvage value as possible in both contracts.

Understanding the Yellowstone magmatic system using 3D geodynamic inverse models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaus, B. J. P.; Reuber, G. S.; Popov, A.; Baumann, T.

2017-12-01

The Yellowstone magmatic system is one of the largest magmatic systems on Earth. Recent seismic tomography suggest that two distinct magma chambers exist: a shallow, presumably felsic chamber and a deeper much larger, partially molten, chamber above the Moho. Why melt stalls at different depth levels above the Yellowstone plume, whereas dikes cross-cut the whole lithosphere in the nearby Snake River Plane is unclear. Partly this is caused by our incomplete understanding of lithospheric scale melt ascent processes from the upper mantle to the shallow crust, which requires better constraints on the mechanics and material properties of the lithosphere.Here, we employ lithospheric-scale 2D and 3D geodynamic models adapted to Yellowstone to better understand magmatic processes in active arcs. The models have a number of (uncertain) input parameters such as the temperature and viscosity structure of the lithosphere, geometry and melt fraction of the magmatic system, while the melt content and rock densities are obtained by consistent thermodynamic modelling of whole rock data of the Yellowstone stratigraphy. As all of these parameters affect the dynamics of the lithosphere, we use the simulations to derive testable model predictions such as gravity anomalies, surface deformation rates and lithospheric stresses and compare them with observations. We incorporated it within an inversion method and perform 3D geodynamic inverse models of the Yellowstone magmatic system. An adjoint based method is used to derive the key model parameters and the factors that affect the stress field around the Yellowstone plume, locations of enhanced diking and melt accumulations. Results suggest that the plume and the magma chambers are connected with each other and that magma chamber overpressure is required to explain the surface displacement in phases of high activity above the Yellowstone magmatic system.

Learning to integrate reactivity and deliberation in uncertain planning and scheduling problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve A.; Gervasio, Melinda T.; Dejong, Gerald F.

1992-01-01

This paper describes an approach to planning and scheduling in uncertain domains. In this approach, a system divides a task on a goal by goal basis into reactive and deliberative components. Initially, a task is handled entirely reactively. When failures occur, the system changes the reactive/deliverative goal division by moving goals into the deliberative component. Because our approach attempts to minimize the number of deliberative goals, we call our approach Minimal Deliberation (MD). Because MD allows goals to be treated reactively, it gains some of the advantages of reactive systems: computational efficiency, the ability to deal with noise and non-deterministic effects, and the ability to take advantage of unforseen opportunities. However, because MD can fall back upon deliberation, it can also provide some of the guarantees of classical planning, such as the ability to deal with complex goal interactions. This paper describes the Minimal Deliberation approach to integrating reactivity and deliberation and describe an ongoing application of the approach to an uncertain planning and scheduling domain.

H∞ output tracking control of uncertain and disturbed nonlinear systems based on neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chengcheng; Li, Yuefeng; Wang, Guanglin

2017-07-01

The work presented in this paper seeks to address the tracking problem for uncertain continuous nonlinear systems with external disturbances. The objective is to obtain a model that uses a reference-based output feedback tracking control law. The control scheme is based on neural networks and a linear difference inclusion (LDI) model, and a PDC structure and H∞ performance criterion are used to attenuate external disturbances. The stability of the whole closed-loop model is investigated using the well-known quadratic Lyapunov function. The key principles of the proposed approach are as follows: neural networks are first used to approximate nonlinearities, to enable a nonlinear system to then be represented as a linearised LDI model. An LMI (linear matrix inequality) formula is obtained for uncertain and disturbed linear systems. This formula enables a solution to be obtained through an interior point optimisation method for some nonlinear output tracking control problems. Finally, simulations and comparisons are provided on two practical examples to illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Non-fragile observer-based output feedback control for polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Kaiqun; Song, Yan; Zhang, Sunjie; Zhong, Zhaozhun

2017-07-01

In this paper, a non-fragile observer-based output feedback control problem for the polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control (MPC) approach is discussed. By decomposing the global system into some subsystems, the computation complexity is reduced, so it follows that the online designing time can be saved.Moreover, an observer-based output feedback control algorithm is proposed in the framework of distributed MPC to deal with the difficulties in obtaining the states measurements. In this way, the presented observer-based output-feedback MPC strategy is more flexible and applicable in practice than the traditional state-feedback one. What is more, the non-fragility of the controller has been taken into consideration in favour of increasing the robustness of the polytopic uncertain system. After that, a sufficient stability criterion is presented by using Lyapunov-like functional approach, meanwhile, the corresponding control law and the upper bound of the quadratic cost function are derived by solving an optimisation subject to convex constraints. Finally, some simulation examples are employed to show the effectiveness of the method.

Robust control of seismically excited cable stayed bridges with MR dampers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

YeganehFallah, Arash; Khajeh Ahamd Attari, Nader

2017-03-01

In recent decades active and semi-active structural control are becoming attractive alternatives for enhancing performance of civil infrastructures subjected to seismic and winds loads. However, in order to have reliable active and semi-active control, there is a need to include information of uncertainties in design of the controller. In real world for civil structures, parameters such as loading places, stiffness, mass and damping are time variant and uncertain. These uncertainties in many cases model as parametric uncertainties. The motivation of this research is to design a robust controller for attenuating the vibrational responses of civil infrastructures, regarding their dynamical uncertainties. Uncertainties in structural dynamic’s parameters are modeled as affine uncertainties in state space modeling. These uncertainties are decoupled from the system through Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) and are assumed to be unknown input to the system but norm bounded. The robust H ∞ controller is designed for the decoupled system to regulate the evaluation outputs and it is robust to effects of uncertainties, disturbance and sensors noise. The cable stayed bridge benchmark which is equipped with MR damper is considered for the numerical simulation. The simulated results show that the proposed robust controller can effectively mitigate undesired uncertainties effects on systems’ responds under seismic loading.

Soil warming response: field experiments to Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd-Brown, K. E.; Bradford, M.; Wieder, W. R.; Crowther, T. W.

2017-12-01

The soil carbon response to climate change is extremely uncertain at the global scale, in part because of the uncertainty in the magnitude of the temperature response. To address this uncertainty we collected data from 48 soil warming manipulations studies and examined the temperature response using two different methods. First, we constructed a mixed effects model and extrapolated the effect of soil warming on soil carbon stocks under anticipated shifts in surface temperature during the 21st century. We saw significant vulnerability of soil carbon stocks, especially in high carbon soils. To place this effect in the context of anticipated changes in carbon inputs and moisture shifts, we applied a one pool decay model with temperature sensitivities to the field data and imposed a post-hoc correction on the Earth system model simulations to integrate the field with the simulated temperature response. We found that there was a slight elevation in the overall soil carbon losses, but that the field uncertainty of the temperature sensitivity parameter was as large as the variation in the among model soil carbon projections. This implies that model-data integration is unlikely to constrain soil carbon simulations and highlights the importance of representing parameter uncertainty in these Earth system models to inform emissions targets.

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Reliable vision-guided grasping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicewarner, Keith E.; Kelley, Robert B.

1992-01-01

Automated assembly of truss structures in space requires vision-guided servoing for grasping a strut when its position and orientation are uncertain. This paper presents a methodology for efficient and robust vision-guided robot grasping alignment. The vision-guided grasping problem is related to vision-guided 'docking' problems. It differs from other hand-in-eye visual servoing problems, such as tracking, in that the distance from the target is a relevant servo parameter. The methodology described in this paper is hierarchy of levels in which the vision/robot interface is decreasingly 'intelligent,' and increasingly fast. Speed is achieved primarily by information reduction. This reduction exploits the use of region-of-interest windows in the image plane and feature motion prediction. These reductions invariably require stringent assumptions about the image. Therefore, at a higher level, these assumptions are verified using slower, more reliable methods. This hierarchy provides for robust error recovery in that when a lower-level routine fails, the next-higher routine will be called and so on. A working system is described which visually aligns a robot to grasp a cylindrical strut. The system uses a single camera mounted on the end effector of a robot and requires only crude calibration parameters. The grasping procedure is fast and reliable, with a multi-level error recovery system.

Identification and calibration of the structural model of historical masonry building damaged during the 2016 Italian earthquakes: The case study of Palazzo del Podestà in Montelupone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catinari, Federico; Pierdicca, Alessio; Clementi, Francesco; Lenci, Stefano

2017-11-01

The results of an ambient-vibration based investigation conducted on the "Palazzo del Podesta" in Montelupone (Italy) is presented. The case study was damaged during the 20I6 Italian earthquakes that stroke the central part of the Italy. The assessment procedure includes full-scale ambient vibration testing, modal identification from ambient vibration responses, finite element modeling and dynamic-based identification of the uncertain structural parameters of the model. A very good match between theoretical and experimental modal parameters was reached and the model updating has been performed identifying some structural parameters.

Optimization for minimum sensitivity to uncertain parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pritchard, Jocelyn I.; Adelman, Howard M.; Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw

1994-01-01

A procedure to design a structure for minimum sensitivity to uncertainties in problem parameters is described. The approach is to minimize directly the sensitivity derivatives of the optimum design with respect to fixed design parameters using a nested optimization procedure. The procedure is demonstrated for the design of a bimetallic beam for minimum weight with insensitivity to uncertainties in structural properties. The beam is modeled with finite elements based on two dimensional beam analysis. A sequential quadratic programming procedure used as the optimizer supplies the Lagrange multipliers that are used to calculate the optimum sensitivity derivatives. The method was perceived to be successful from comparisons of the optimization results with parametric studies.

Analytic solution for American strangle options using Laplace-Carson transforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Myungjoo; Jeon, Junkee; Han, Heejae; Lee, Somin

2017-06-01

A strangle has been important strategy for options when the trader believes there will be a large movement in the underlying asset but are uncertain of which way the movement will be. In this paper, we derive analytic formula for the price of American strangle options. American strangle options can be mathematically formulated into the free boundary problems involving two early exercise boundaries. By using Laplace-Carson Transform(LCT), we can derive the nonlinear system of equations satisfied by the transformed value of two free boundaries. We then solve this nonlinear system using Newton's method and finally get the free boundaries and option values using numerical Laplace inversion techniques. We also derive the Greeks for the American strangle options as well as the value of perpetual American strangle options. Furthermore, we present various graphs for the free boundaries and option values according to the change of parameters.

Design and experiment of data-driven modeling and flutter control of a prototype wing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lum, Kai-Yew; Xu, Cai-Lin; Lu, Zhenbo; Lai, Kwok-Leung; Cui, Yongdong

2017-06-01

This paper presents an approach for data-driven modeling of aeroelasticity and its application to flutter control design of a wind-tunnel wing model. Modeling is centered on system identification of unsteady aerodynamic loads using computational fluid dynamics data, and adopts a nonlinear multivariable extension of the Hammerstein-Wiener system. The formulation is in modal coordinates of the elastic structure, and yields a reduced-order model of the aeroelastic feedback loop that is parametrized by airspeed. Flutter suppression is thus cast as a robust stabilization problem over uncertain airspeed, for which a low-order H∞ controller is computed. The paper discusses in detail parameter sensitivity and observability of the model, the former to justify the chosen model structure, and the latter to provide a criterion for physical sensor placement. Wind tunnel experiments confirm the validity of the modeling approach and the effectiveness of the control design.

Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

DOEpatents

Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

2014-03-18

A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

Sliding Mode Approaches for Robust Control, State Estimation, Secure Communication, and Fault Diagnosis in Nuclear Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablay, Gunyaz

Using traditional control methods for controller design, parameter estimation and fault diagnosis may lead to poor results with nuclear systems in practice because of approximations and uncertainties in the system models used, possibly resulting in unexpected plant unavailability. This experience has led to an interest in development of robust control, estimation and fault diagnosis methods. One particularly robust approach is the sliding mode control methodology. Sliding mode approaches have been of great interest and importance in industry and engineering in the recent decades due to their potential for producing economic, safe and reliable designs. In order to utilize these advantages, sliding mode approaches are implemented for robust control, state estimation, secure communication and fault diagnosis in nuclear plant systems. In addition, a sliding mode output observer is developed for fault diagnosis in dynamical systems. To validate the effectiveness of the methodologies, several nuclear plant system models are considered for applications, including point reactor kinetics, xenon concentration dynamics, an uncertain pressurizer model, a U-tube steam generator model and a coupled nonlinear nuclear reactor model.

Stochastic and Perturbed Parameter Representations of Model Uncertainty in Convection Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, H. M.; Moroz, I.; Palmer, T.

2015-12-01

It is now acknowledged that representing model uncertainty in atmospheric simulators is essential for the production of reliable probabilistic ensemble forecasts, and a number of different techniques have been proposed for this purpose. Stochastic convection parameterization schemes use random numbers to represent the difference between a deterministic parameterization scheme and the true atmosphere, accounting for the unresolved sub grid-scale variability associated with convective clouds. An alternative approach varies the values of poorly constrained physical parameters in the model to represent the uncertainty in these parameters. This study presents new perturbed parameter schemes for use in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) convection scheme. Two types of scheme are developed and implemented. Both schemes represent the joint uncertainty in four of the parameters in the convection parametrisation scheme, which was estimated using the Ensemble Prediction and Parameter Estimation System (EPPES). The first scheme developed is a fixed perturbed parameter scheme, where the values of uncertain parameters are changed between ensemble members, but held constant over the duration of the forecast. The second is a stochastically varying perturbed parameter scheme. The performance of these schemes was compared to the ECMWF operational stochastic scheme, Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies (SPPT), and to a model which does not represent uncertainty in convection. The skill of probabilistic forecasts made using the different models was evaluated. While the perturbed parameter schemes improve on the stochastic parametrisation in some regards, the SPPT scheme outperforms the perturbed parameter approaches when considering forecast variables that are particularly sensitive to convection. Overall, SPPT schemes are the most skilful representations of model uncertainty due to convection parametrisation. Reference: H. M. Christensen, I. M. Moroz, and T. N. Palmer, 2015: Stochastic and Perturbed Parameter Representations of Model Uncertainty in Convection Parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 2525-2544.

On Event-Triggered Adaptive Architectures for Decentralized and Distributed Control of Large-Scale Modular Systems

PubMed Central

Albattat, Ali; Gruenwald, Benjamin C.; Yucelen, Tansel

2016-01-01

The last decade has witnessed an increased interest in physical systems controlled over wireless networks (networked control systems). These systems allow the computation of control signals via processors that are not attached to the physical systems, and the feedback loops are closed over wireless networks. The contribution of this paper is to design and analyze event-triggered decentralized and distributed adaptive control architectures for uncertain networked large-scale modular systems; that is, systems consist of physically-interconnected modules controlled over wireless networks. Specifically, the proposed adaptive architectures guarantee overall system stability while reducing wireless network utilization and achieving a given system performance in the presence of system uncertainties that can result from modeling and degraded modes of operation of the modules and their interconnections between each other. In addition to the theoretical findings including rigorous system stability and the boundedness analysis of the closed-loop dynamical system, as well as the characterization of the effect of user-defined event-triggering thresholds and the design parameters of the proposed adaptive architectures on the overall system performance, an illustrative numerical example is further provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed decentralized and distributed control approaches. PMID:27537894

On Event-Triggered Adaptive Architectures for Decentralized and Distributed Control of Large-Scale Modular Systems.

PubMed

Albattat, Ali; Gruenwald, Benjamin C; Yucelen, Tansel

2016-08-16

The last decade has witnessed an increased interest in physical systems controlled over wireless networks (networked control systems). These systems allow the computation of control signals via processors that are not attached to the physical systems, and the feedback loops are closed over wireless networks. The contribution of this paper is to design and analyze event-triggered decentralized and distributed adaptive control architectures for uncertain networked large-scale modular systems; that is, systems consist of physically-interconnected modules controlled over wireless networks. Specifically, the proposed adaptive architectures guarantee overall system stability while reducing wireless network utilization and achieving a given system performance in the presence of system uncertainties that can result from modeling and degraded modes of operation of the modules and their interconnections between each other. In addition to the theoretical findings including rigorous system stability and the boundedness analysis of the closed-loop dynamical system, as well as the characterization of the effect of user-defined event-triggering thresholds and the design parameters of the proposed adaptive architectures on the overall system performance, an illustrative numerical example is further provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed decentralized and distributed control approaches.

Risk management for sulfur dioxide abatement under multiple uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, C.; Sun, W.; Tan, Q.; Liu, Y.; Lu, W. T.; Guo, H. C.

2016-03-01

In this study, interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) were incorporated into a general optimization framework, leading to an interval-parameter CVaR-based two-stage programming (ICTP) method. The ICTP method had several advantages: (i) its objective function simultaneously took expected cost and risk cost into consideration, and also used discrete random variables and discrete intervals to reflect uncertain properties; (ii) it quantitatively evaluated the right tail of distributions of random variables which could better calculate the risk of violated environmental standards; (iii) it was useful for helping decision makers to analyze the trade-offs between cost and risk; and (iv) it was effective to penalize the second-stage costs, as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The developed model was applied to sulfur dioxide abatement in an air quality management system. The results indicated that the ICTP method could be used for generating a series of air quality management schemes under different risk-aversion levels, for identifying desired air quality management strategies for decision makers, and for considering a proper balance between system economy and environmental quality.

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandhu, Rimple; Poirel, Dominique; Pettit, Chris; Khalil, Mohammad; Sarkar, Abhijit

2016-07-01

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid-structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib-Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

Processing uncertain RFID data in traceability supply chains.

PubMed

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie; Guo, Guangjun; Jiang, Tong

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries.

Processing Uncertain RFID Data in Traceability Supply Chains

PubMed Central

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries. PMID:24737978

Ga-67 positivity in sarcoidosis of the skin with coincident thyroid uptake of uncertain etiology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moreno, A.J.; Brown, J.M.; Salinas, J.A.

1984-03-01

Gallium-67 citrate scintigraphy of a 26-year-old woman with systemic sarcoidosis demonstrated abnormal radiotracer uptake within multiple biopsy-proven sarcoidal cutaneous lesions and within both lobes of the thyroid gland. The etiology of the thyroidal uptake of the Ga-67 was uncertain but it may represent sarcoidal involvement of the gland.

Adaptive fixed-time control for cluster synchronisation of coupled complex networks with uncertain disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Shengqin; Lu, Xiaobo; Cai, Guoliang; Cai, Shuiming

2017-12-01

This paper focuses on the cluster synchronisation problem of coupled complex networks with uncertain disturbances under an adaptive fixed-time control strategy. To begin with, complex dynamical networks with community structure which are subject to uncertain disturbances are taken into account. Then, a novel adaptive control strategy combined with fixed-time techniques is proposed to guarantee the nodes in the communities to desired states in a settling time. In addition, the stability of complex error systems is theoretically proved based on Lyapunov stability theorem. At last, two examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive fixed-time control.

Application of dynamic uncertain causality graph in spacecraft fault diagnosis: Logic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Quanying; Zhang, Qin; Liu, Peng; Yang, Ping; Zhu, Ma; Wang, Xiaochen

2017-04-01

Intelligent diagnosis system are applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) is a new probability graphic model with many advantages. In the knowledge expression of spacecraft fault diagnosis, feedback among variables is frequently encountered, which may cause directed cyclic graphs (DCGs). Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning, but BN does not allow DCGs. In this paper, DUGG is applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft: introducing the inference algorithm for the DUCG to deal with feedback. Now, DUCG has been tested in 16 typical faults with 100% diagnosis accuracy.

Event-Based Robust Control for Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Using Adaptive Dynamic Programming.

PubMed

Zhang, Qichao; Zhao, Dongbin; Wang, Ding

2018-01-01

In this paper, the robust control problem for a class of continuous-time nonlinear system with unmatched uncertainties is investigated using an event-based control method. First, the robust control problem is transformed into a corresponding optimal control problem with an augmented control and an appropriate cost function. Under the event-based mechanism, we prove that the solution of the optimal control problem can asymptotically stabilize the uncertain system with an adaptive triggering condition. That is, the designed event-based controller is robust to the original uncertain system. Note that the event-based controller is updated only when the triggering condition is satisfied, which can save the communication resources between the plant and the controller. Then, a single network adaptive dynamic programming structure with experience replay technique is constructed to approach the optimal control policies. The stability of the closed-loop system with the event-based control policy and the augmented control policy is analyzed using the Lyapunov approach. Furthermore, we prove that the minimal intersample time is bounded by a nonzero positive constant, which excludes Zeno behavior during the learning process. Finally, two simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

DISTINGUISHING COMPACT BINARY POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS USING GRAVITATIONAL WAVE OBSERVATIONS OF COALESCING BINARY BLACK HOLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevenson, Simon; Ohme, Frank; Fairhurst, Stephen, E-mail: simon.stevenson@ligo.org

2015-09-01

The coalescence of compact binaries containing neutron stars or black holes is one of the most promising signals for advanced ground-based laser interferometer gravitational-wave (GW) detectors, with the first direct detections expected over the next few years. The rate of binary coalescences and the distribution of component masses is highly uncertain, and population synthesis models predict a wide range of plausible values. Poorly constrained parameters in population synthesis models correspond to poorly understood astrophysics at various stages in the evolution of massive binary stars, the progenitors of binary neutron star and binary black hole systems. These include effects such asmore » supernova kick velocities, parameters governing the energetics of common envelope evolution and the strength of stellar winds. Observing multiple binary black hole systems through GWs will allow us to infer details of the astrophysical mechanisms that lead to their formation. Here we simulate GW observations from a series of population synthesis models including the effects of known selection biases, measurement errors and cosmology. We compare the predictions arising from different models and show that we will be able to distinguish between them with observations (or the lack of them) from the early runs of the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. This will allow us to narrow down the large parameter space for binary evolution models.« less

Energy Signal Tool for Decision Support in Building Energy Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henze, G. P.; Pavlak, G. S.; Florita, A. R.

2014-12-01

A prototype energy signal tool is demonstrated for operational whole-building and system-level energy use evaluation. The purpose of the tool is to give a summary of building energy use which allows a building operator to quickly distinguish normal and abnormal energy use. Toward that end, energy use status is displayed as a traffic light, which is a visual metaphor for energy use that is either substantially different from expected (red and yellow lights) or approximately the same as expected (green light). Which light to display for a given energy end use is determined by comparing expected to actual energy use.more » As expected, energy use is necessarily uncertain; we cannot choose the appropriate light with certainty. Instead, the energy signal tool chooses the light by minimizing the expected cost of displaying the wrong light. The expected energy use is represented by a probability distribution. Energy use is modeled by a low-order lumped parameter model. Uncertainty in energy use is quantified by a Monte Carlo exploration of the influence of model parameters on energy use. Distributions over model parameters are updated over time via Bayes' theorem. The simulation study was devised to assess whole-building energy signal accuracy in the presence of uncertainty and faults at the submetered level, which may lead to tradeoffs at the whole-building level that are not detectable without submetering.« less

Turbulence Characteristics of Swirling Flowfields. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, T. W.

1983-01-01

Combustor design phenomena; recirculating flows research; single-wire, six-orientation, eddy dissipation rate, and turbulence modeling measurement; directional sensitivity (DS); calibration equipment, confined jet facility, and hot-wire instrumentation; effects of swirl, strong contraction nozzle, and expansion ratio; and turbulence parameters; uncertain; and DS in laminar jets; turbulent nonswirling jets, and turbulent swirling jets are discussed.

Uncertainty quantification of reaction mechanisms accounting for correlations introduced by rate rules and fitted Arrhenius parameters

DOE PAGES

Prager, Jens; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik; ...

2013-02-23

We study correlations among uncertain Arrhenius rate parameters in a chemical model for hydrocarbon fuel-air combustion. We consider correlations induced by the use of rate rules for modeling reaction rate constants, as well as those resulting from fitting rate expressions to empirical measurements arriving at a joint probability density for all Arrhenius parameters. We focus on homogeneous ignition in a fuel-air mixture at constant-pressure. We also outline a general methodology for this analysis using polynomial chaos and Bayesian inference methods. Finally, we examine the uncertainties in both the Arrhenius parameters and in predicted ignition time, outlining the role of correlations,more » and considering both accuracy and computational efficiency.« less

Robust stochastic stability of discrete-time fuzzy Markovian jump neural networks.

PubMed

Arunkumar, A; Sakthivel, R; Mathiyalagan, K; Park, Ju H

2014-07-01

This paper focuses the issue of robust stochastic stability for a class of uncertain fuzzy Markovian jumping discrete-time neural networks (FMJDNNs) with various activation functions and mixed time delay. By employing the Lyapunov technique and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, a new set of delay-dependent sufficient conditions are established for the robust stochastic stability of uncertain FMJDNNs. More precisely, the parameter uncertainties are assumed to be time varying, unknown and norm bounded. The obtained stability conditions are established in terms of LMIs, which can be easily checked by using the efficient MATLAB-LMI toolbox. Finally, numerical examples with simulation result are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and less conservativeness of the obtained results. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite-time robust stabilization of uncertain delayed neural networks with discontinuous activations via delayed feedback control.

PubMed

Wang, Leimin; Shen, Yi; Sheng, Yin

2016-04-01

This paper is concerned with the finite-time robust stabilization of delayed neural networks (DNNs) in the presence of discontinuous activations and parameter uncertainties. By using the nonsmooth analysis and control theory, a delayed controller is designed to realize the finite-time robust stabilization of DNNs with discontinuous activations and parameter uncertainties, and the upper bound of the settling time functional for stabilization is estimated. Finally, two examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indirect adaptive fuzzy wavelet neural network with self- recurrent consequent part for AC servo system.

PubMed

Hou, Runmin; Wang, Li; Gao, Qiang; Hou, Yuanglong; Wang, Chao

2017-09-01

This paper proposes a novel indirect adaptive fuzzy wavelet neural network (IAFWNN) to control the nonlinearity, wide variations in loads, time-variation and uncertain disturbance of the ac servo system. In the proposed approach, the self-recurrent wavelet neural network (SRWNN) is employed to construct an adaptive self-recurrent consequent part for each fuzzy rule of TSK fuzzy model. For the IAFWNN controller, the online learning algorithm is based on back propagation (BP) algorithm. Moreover, an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) is used to adapt the learning rate. The aid of an adaptive SRWNN identifier offers the real-time gradient information to the adaptive fuzzy wavelet neural controller to overcome the impact of parameter variations, load disturbances and other uncertainties effectively, and has a good dynamic. The asymptotical stability of the system is guaranteed by using the Lyapunov method. The result of the simulation and the prototype test prove that the proposed are effective and suitable. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Developing an Online Framework for Publication of Uncertainty Information in Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etienne, E.; Piasecki, M.

2012-12-01

Inaccuracies in data collection and parameters estimation, and imperfection of models structures imply uncertain predictions of the hydrological models. Finding a way to communicate the uncertainty information in a model output is important in decision-making. This work aims to publish uncertainty information (computed by project partner at Penn State) associated with hydrological predictions on catchments. To this end we have developed a DB schema (derived from the CUAHSI ODM design) which is focused on storing uncertainty information and its associated metadata. The technologies used to build the system are: OGC's Sensor Observation Service (SOS) for publication, the uncertML markup language (also developed by the OGC) to describe uncertainty information, and use of the Interoperability and Automated Mapping (INTAMAP) Web Processing Service (WPS) that handles part of the statistics computations. We develop a service to provide users with the capability to exploit all the functionality of the system (based on DRUPAL). Users will be able to request and visualize uncertainty data, and also publish their data in the system.

A cable-driven wrist robotic rehabilitator using a novel torque-field controller for human motion training.

PubMed

Chen, Weihai; Cui, Xiang; Zhang, Jianbin; Wang, Jianhua

2015-06-01

Rehabilitation technologies have great potentials in assisted motion training for stroke patients. Considering that wrist motion plays an important role in arm dexterous manipulation of activities of daily living, this paper focuses on developing a cable-driven wrist robotic rehabilitator (CDWRR) for motion training or assistance to subjects with motor disabilities. The CDWRR utilizes the wrist skeletal joints and arm segments as the supporting structure and takes advantage of cable-driven parallel design to build the system, which brings the properties of flexibility, low-cost, and low-weight. The controller of the CDWRR is designed typically based on a virtual torque-field, which is to plan "assist-as-needed" torques for the spherical motion of wrist responding to the orientation deviation in wrist motion training. The torque-field controller can be customized to different levels of rehabilitation training requirements by tuning the field parameters. Additionally, a rapidly convergent parameter self-identification algorithm is developed to obtain the uncertain parameters automatically for the floating wearable structure of the CDWRR. Finally, experiments on a healthy subject are carried out to demonstrate the performance of the controller and the feasibility of the CDWRR on wrist motion training or assistance.

A cable-driven wrist robotic rehabilitator using a novel torque-field controller for human motion training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Weihai; Cui, Xiang; Zhang, Jianbin; Wang, Jianhua

2015-06-01

Rehabilitation technologies have great potentials in assisted motion training for stroke patients. Considering that wrist motion plays an important role in arm dexterous manipulation of activities of daily living, this paper focuses on developing a cable-driven wrist robotic rehabilitator (CDWRR) for motion training or assistance to subjects with motor disabilities. The CDWRR utilizes the wrist skeletal joints and arm segments as the supporting structure and takes advantage of cable-driven parallel design to build the system, which brings the properties of flexibility, low-cost, and low-weight. The controller of the CDWRR is designed typically based on a virtual torque-field, which is to plan "assist-as-needed" torques for the spherical motion of wrist responding to the orientation deviation in wrist motion training. The torque-field controller can be customized to different levels of rehabilitation training requirements by tuning the field parameters. Additionally, a rapidly convergent parameter self-identification algorithm is developed to obtain the uncertain parameters automatically for the floating wearable structure of the CDWRR. Finally, experiments on a healthy subject are carried out to demonstrate the performance of the controller and the feasibility of the CDWRR on wrist motion training or assistance.

Identifying Model-Based Reconfiguration Goals through Functional Deficiencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benazera, Emmanuel; Trave-Massuyes, Louise

2004-01-01

Model-based diagnosis is now advanced to the point autonomous systems face some uncertain and faulty situations with success. The next step toward more autonomy is to have the system recovering itself after faults occur, a process known as model-based reconfiguration. After faults occur, given a prediction of the nominal behavior of the system and the result of the diagnosis operation, this paper details how to automatically determine the functional deficiencies of the system. These deficiencies are characterized in the case of uncertain state estimates. A methodology is then presented to determine the reconfiguration goals based on the deficiencies. Finally, a recovery process interleaves planning and model predictive control to restore the functionalities in prioritized order.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng; Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay

PubMed Central

Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

2016-01-01

Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method. PMID:27669005

Common-envelope ejection in massive binary stars. Implications for the progenitors of GW150914 and GW151226

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruckow, M. U.; Tauris, T. M.; Langer, N.; Szécsi, D.; Marchant, P.; Podsiadlowski, Ph.

2016-11-01

Context. The recently detected gravitational wave signals (GW150914 and GW151226) of the merger event of a pair of relatively massive stellar-mass black holes (BHs) calls for an investigation of the formation of such progenitor systems in general. Aims: We analyse the common-envelope (CE) stage of the traditional formation channel in binaries where the first-formed compact object undergoes an in-spiral inside the envelope of its evolved companion star and ejects the envelope in this process. Methods: We calculated envelope binding energies of donor stars with initial masses between 4 and 115M⊙ for metallicities of Z = ZMilky Way ≃ Z⊙/ 2 and Z = Z⊙/ 50, and derived minimum masses of in-spiralling objects needed to eject these envelopes. Results: In addition to producing double white dwarf and double neutron star binaries, CE evolution may also produce massive BH-BH systems with individual BH component masses of up to 50 - 60M⊙, in particular for donor stars evolved to giants beyond the Hertzsprung gap. However, the physics of envelope ejection of massive stars remains uncertain. We discuss the applicability of the energy-budget formalism, the location of the bifurcation point, the recombination energy, and the accretion energy during in-spiral as possible energy sources, and also comment on the effect of inflated helium cores. Conclusions: Massive stars in a wide range of metallicities and with initial masses of up to at least 115M⊙ may shed their envelopes and survive CE evolution, depending on their initial orbital parameters, similarly to the situation for intermediate- and low-mass stars with degenerate cores. In addition to being dependent on stellar radius, the envelope binding energies and λ-values also depend on the applied convective core-overshooting parameter, whereas these structure parameters are basically independent of metallicity for stars with initial masses below 60M⊙. Metal-rich stars ≳60M⊙ become luminous blue variables and do not evolve to reach the red giant stage. We conclude that based on stellar structure calculations, and in the view of the usual simple energy budget analysis, events like GW150914 and GW151226 might be produced by the CE channel. Calculations of post-CE orbital separations, however, and thus the estimated LIGO detection rates, remain highly uncertain.

Transient Stability Assessment of Power Systems With Uncertain Renewable Generation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Villegas Pico, Hugo Nestor; Aliprantis, Dionysios C.; Lin, Xiaojun

2017-08-09

The transient stability of a power system depends heavily on its operational state at the moment of a fault. In systems where the penetration of renewable generation is significant, the dispatch of the conventional fleet of synchronous generators is uncertain at the time of dynamic security analysis. Hence, the assessment of transient stability requires the solution of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations with unknown initial conditions and inputs. To this end, we set forth a computational framework that relies on Taylor polynomials, where variables are associated with the level of renewable generation. This paper describes the details ofmore » the method and illustrates its application on a nine-bus test system.« less

Design of sliding-mode observer for a class of uncertain neutral stochastic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhen; Zhao, Lin; Zhu, Quanmin; Gao, Cunchen

2017-05-01

The problem of robust ? control for a class of uncertain neutral stochastic systems (NSS) is investigated by utilising the sliding-mode observer (SMO) technique. This paper presents a novel observer and integral-type sliding-surface design, based on which a new sufficient condition guaranteeing the resultant sliding-mode dynamics (SMDs) to be mean-square exponentially stable with a prescribed level of ? performance is derived. Then, an adaptive reaching motion controller is synthesised to lead the system to the predesigned sliding surface in finite-time almost surely. Finally, two illustrative examples are exhibited to verify the validity and superiority of the developed scheme.

Adaptive neural network backstepping control for a class of uncertain fractional-order chaotic systems with unknown backlash-like hysteresis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Yimin; Lv, Hui, E-mail: lvhui207@gmail.com

In this paper, we consider the control problem of a class of uncertain fractional-order chaotic systems preceded by unknown backlash-like hysteresis nonlinearities based on backstepping control algorithm. We model the hysteresis by using a differential equation. Based on the fractional Lyapunov stability criterion and the backstepping algorithm procedures, an adaptive neural network controller is driven. No knowledge of the upper bound of the disturbance and system uncertainty is required in our controller, and the asymptotical convergence of the tracking error can be guaranteed. Finally, we give two simulation examples to confirm our theoretical results.

Global adaptive control for uncertain nonaffine nonlinear hysteretic systems.

PubMed

Liu, Yong-Hua; Huang, Liangpei; Xiao, Dongming; Guo, Yong

2015-09-01

In this paper, the global output tracking is investigated for a class of uncertain nonlinear hysteretic systems with nonaffine structures. By combining the solution properties of the hysteresis model with the novel backstepping approach, a robust adaptive control algorithm is developed without constructing a hysteresis inverse. The proposed control scheme is further modified to tackle the bounded disturbances by adaptively estimating their bounds. It is rigorously proven that the designed adaptive controllers can guarantee global stability of the closed-loop system. Two numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed control schemes. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hiereachical Bayesian Model for Combining Geochemical and Geophysical Data for Environmental Applications Software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jinsong

2013-05-01

Development of a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of aqueous geochemical parameters associated with in-situ bioremediation using surface spectral induced polarization (SIP) data and borehole geochemical measurements collected during a bioremediation experiment at a uranium-contaminated site near Rifle, Colorado. The SIP data are first inverted for Cole-Cole parameters including chargeability, time constant, resistivity at the DC frequency and dependence factor, at each pixel of two-dimensional grids using a previously developed stochastic method. Correlations between the inverted Cole-Cole parameters and the wellbore-based groundwater chemistry measurements indicative of key metabolic processes within the aquifer (e.g. ferrous iron, sulfate, uranium)more » were established and used as a basis for petrophysical model development. The developed Bayesian model consists of three levels of statistical sub-models: 1) data model, providing links between geochemical and geophysical attributes, 2) process model, describing the spatial and temporal variability of geochemical properties in the subsurface system, and 3) parameter model, describing prior distributions of various parameters and initial conditions. The unknown parameters are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. By combining the temporally distributed geochemical data with the spatially distributed geophysical data, we obtain the spatio-temporal distribution of ferrous iron, sulfate and sulfide, and their associated uncertainity information. The obtained results can be used to assess the efficacy of the bioremediation treatment over space and time and to constrain reactive transport models.« less

A high-throughput screening approach to discovering good forms of biologically inspired visual representation.

PubMed

Pinto, Nicolas; Doukhan, David; DiCarlo, James J; Cox, David D

2009-11-01

While many models of biological object recognition share a common set of "broad-stroke" properties, the performance of any one model depends strongly on the choice of parameters in a particular instantiation of that model--e.g., the number of units per layer, the size of pooling kernels, exponents in normalization operations, etc. Since the number of such parameters (explicit or implicit) is typically large and the computational cost of evaluating one particular parameter set is high, the space of possible model instantiations goes largely unexplored. Thus, when a model fails to approach the abilities of biological visual systems, we are left uncertain whether this failure is because we are missing a fundamental idea or because the correct "parts" have not been tuned correctly, assembled at sufficient scale, or provided with enough training. Here, we present a high-throughput approach to the exploration of such parameter sets, leveraging recent advances in stream processing hardware (high-end NVIDIA graphic cards and the PlayStation 3's IBM Cell Processor). In analogy to high-throughput screening approaches in molecular biology and genetics, we explored thousands of potential network architectures and parameter instantiations, screening those that show promising object recognition performance for further analysis. We show that this approach can yield significant, reproducible gains in performance across an array of basic object recognition tasks, consistently outperforming a variety of state-of-the-art purpose-built vision systems from the literature. As the scale of available computational power continues to expand, we argue that this approach has the potential to greatly accelerate progress in both artificial vision and our understanding of the computational underpinning of biological vision.

A High-Throughput Screening Approach to Discovering Good Forms of Biologically Inspired Visual Representation

PubMed Central

Pinto, Nicolas; Doukhan, David; DiCarlo, James J.; Cox, David D.

2009-01-01

While many models of biological object recognition share a common set of “broad-stroke” properties, the performance of any one model depends strongly on the choice of parameters in a particular instantiation of that model—e.g., the number of units per layer, the size of pooling kernels, exponents in normalization operations, etc. Since the number of such parameters (explicit or implicit) is typically large and the computational cost of evaluating one particular parameter set is high, the space of possible model instantiations goes largely unexplored. Thus, when a model fails to approach the abilities of biological visual systems, we are left uncertain whether this failure is because we are missing a fundamental idea or because the correct “parts” have not been tuned correctly, assembled at sufficient scale, or provided with enough training. Here, we present a high-throughput approach to the exploration of such parameter sets, leveraging recent advances in stream processing hardware (high-end NVIDIA graphic cards and the PlayStation 3's IBM Cell Processor). In analogy to high-throughput screening approaches in molecular biology and genetics, we explored thousands of potential network architectures and parameter instantiations, screening those that show promising object recognition performance for further analysis. We show that this approach can yield significant, reproducible gains in performance across an array of basic object recognition tasks, consistently outperforming a variety of state-of-the-art purpose-built vision systems from the literature. As the scale of available computational power continues to expand, we argue that this approach has the potential to greatly accelerate progress in both artificial vision and our understanding of the computational underpinning of biological vision. PMID:19956750

Energy balance for uranium recovery from seawater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, E.; Lindner, H.

The energy return on investment (EROI) of an energy resource is the ratio of the energy it ultimately produces to the energy used to recover it. EROI is a key viability measure for a new recovery technology, particularly in its early stages of development when financial cost assessment would be premature or highly uncertain. This paper estimates the EROI of uranium recovery from seawater via a braid adsorbent technology. In this paper, the energy cost of obtaining uranium from seawater is assessed by breaking the production chain into three processes: adsorbent production, adsorbent deployment and mooring, and uranium elution andmore » purification. Both direct and embodied energy inputs are considered. Direct energy is the energy used by the processes themselves, while embodied energy is used to fabricate their material, equipment or chemical inputs. If the uranium is used in a once-through fuel cycle, the braid adsorbent technology EROI ranges from 12 to 27, depending on still-uncertain performance and system design parameters. It is highly sensitive to the adsorbent capacity in grams of U captured per kg of adsorbent as well as to potential economies in chemical use. This compares to an EROI of ca. 300 for contemporary terrestrial mining. It is important to note that these figures only consider the mineral extraction step in the fuel cycle. At a reference performance level of 2.76 g U recovered per kg adsorbent immersed, the largest energy consumers are the chemicals used in adsorbent production (63%), anchor chain mooring system fabrication and operations (17%), and unit processes in the adsorbent production step (12%). (authors)« less

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra; ...

2017-11-20

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Estimation in Linear Systems Featuring Correlated Uncertain Observations Coming from Multiple Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caballero-Águila, R.; Hermoso-Carazo, A.; Linares-Pérez, J.

2009-08-01

In this paper, the state least-squares linear estimation problem from correlated uncertain observations coming from multiple sensors is addressed. It is assumed that, at each sensor, the state is measured in the presence of additive white noise and that the uncertainty in the observations is characterized by a set of Bernoulli random variables which are only correlated at consecutive time instants. Assuming that the statistical properties of such variables are not necessarily the same for all the sensors, a recursive filtering algorithm is proposed, and the performance of the estimators is illustrated by a numerical simulation example wherein a signal is estimated from correlated uncertain observations coming from two sensors with different uncertainty characteristics.

Reason, emotion and decision-making: risk and reward computation with feeling.

PubMed

Quartz, Steven R

2009-05-01

Many models of judgment and decision-making posit distinct cognitive and emotional contributions to decision-making under uncertainty. Cognitive processes typically involve exact computations according to a cost-benefit calculus, whereas emotional processes typically involve approximate, heuristic processes that deliver rapid evaluations without mental effort. However, it remains largely unknown what specific parameters of uncertain decision the brain encodes, the extent to which these parameters correspond to various decision-making frameworks, and their correspondence to emotional and rational processes. Here, I review research suggesting that emotional processes encode in a precise quantitative manner the basic parameters of financial decision theory, indicating a reorientation of emotional and cognitive contributions to risky choice.

Stability analysis of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems.

PubMed

Bhiwani, R J; Patre, B M

2011-10-01

In this paper, the determination of stability margin, gain and phase margin aspects of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems are dealt. The stability analysis of uncertain linear systems with coefficients described by fuzzy functions is studied. A complexity reduced technique for determining the stability margin for FPUS is proposed. The method suggested is dependent on the order of the characteristic polynomial. In order to find the stability margin of interval polynomials of order less than 5, it is not always necessary to determine and check all four Kharitonov's polynomials. It has been shown that, for determining stability margin of FPUS of order five, four, and three we require only 3, 2, and 1 Kharitonov's polynomials respectively. Only for sixth and higher order polynomials, a complete set of Kharitonov's polynomials are needed to determine the stability margin. Thus for lower order systems, the calculations are reduced to a large extent. This idea has been extended to determine the stability margin of fuzzy interval polynomials. It is also shown that the gain and phase margin of FPUS can be determined analytically without using graphical techniques. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monthly land cover-specific evapotranspiration models derived from global eddy flux measurements and remote sensing data

Treesearch

Yuan Fang; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Asko Noormets; Jean-Christophe Domec; John King; Zhiqiang Zhang; Xudong Zhang; Guanghui Lin; Guangsheng Zhou; Jingfeng Xiao; Jiquan Chen

2015-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is arguably the most uncertain ecohydrologic variable for quantifying watershed water budgets. Although numerous ET and hydrological models exist, accurately predicting the effects of global change on water use and availability remains challenging because of model deficiency and/or a lack of input parameters. The objective of this study was to...

Challenges of Developing Design Discharge Estimates with Uncertain Data and Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U. S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on design discharge estimates obtained for gauged basins through flood flow frequency analysis. Bulletin 17B (B17B) guidelines are widely used in the USA for developing these design estimates, which are required for many water resources engineering design applications. A set of outlier and historical data, and distribution parameter selection options is included in these guidelines. These options are provided in the guidelines as a means of accounting for uncertain data and information, primarily in the flow record. The individual as well as the cumulative effects of each of these preferences on design discharge estimates are evaluated in this study by using data from several gauges that are part of the United States Geological Survey's Hydro-Climatic Data Network. The results of this study show that despite the availability of rigorous and detailed guidelines for flood frequency analysis, the design discharge estimates can still vary substantially, from user to user, based on data and model parameter selection options chosen by each user. Thus, the findings of this study have strong implications for water resources engineers and other professionals who use B17B-based design discharge estimates in their work.

Predicting the response of seven Asian glaciers to future climate scenarios using a simple linear glacier model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Karoly, David J.

2008-03-01

Observations from seven Central Asian glaciers (35-55°N; 70-95°E) are used, together with regional temperature data, to infer uncertain parameters for a simple linear model of the glacier length variations. The glacier model is based on first order glacier dynamics and requires the knowledge of reference states of forcing and glacier perturbation magnitude. An adjoint-based variational method is used to optimally determine the glacier reference states in 1900 and the uncertain glacier model parameters. The simple glacier model is then used to estimate the glacier length variations until 2060 using regional temperature projections from an ensemble of climate model simulations for a future climate change scenario (SRES A2). For the period 2000-2060, all glaciers are projected to experience substantial further shrinkage, especially those with gentle slopes (e.g., Glacier Chogo Lungma retreats ˜4 km). Although nearly one-third of the year 2000 length will be reduced for some small glaciers, the existence of the glaciers studied here is not threatened by year 2060. The differences between the individual glacier responses are large. No straightforward relationship is found between glacier size and the projected fractional change of its length.

Probability-based constrained MPC for structured uncertain systems with state and random input delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jianbo; Li, Dewei; Xi, Yugeng

2013-07-01

This article is concerned with probability-based constrained model predictive control (MPC) for systems with both structured uncertainties and time delays, where a random input delay and multiple fixed state delays are included. The process of input delay is governed by a discrete-time finite-state Markov chain. By invoking an appropriate augmented state, the system is transformed into a standard structured uncertain time-delay Markov jump linear system (MJLS). For the resulting system, a multi-step feedback control law is utilised to minimise an upper bound on the expected value of performance objective. The proposed design has been proved to stabilise the closed-loop system in the mean square sense and to guarantee constraints on control inputs and system states. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed results.

Uncertainty Analysis of A Flood Risk Mapping Procedure Applied In Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, J.; Uhrich, S.; Bormann, H.; Diekkrüger, B.

In the framework of IRMA-Sponge program the presented study was part of the joint research project FRHYMAP (flood risk and hydrological mapping). A simple con- ceptual flooding model (FLOODMAP) has been developed to simulate flooded areas besides rivers within cities. FLOODMAP requires a minimum of input data (digital el- evation model (DEM), river line, water level plain) and parameters and calculates the flood extent as well as the spatial distribution of flood depths. of course the simulated model results are affected by errors and uncertainties. Possible sources of uncertain- ties are the model structure, model parameters and input data. Thus after the model validation (comparison of simulated water to observed extent, taken from airborne pictures) the uncertainty of the essential input data set (digital elevation model) was analysed. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the effect of uncertain- ties concerning the statistics of DEM quality and to derive flooding probabilities from the set of simulations. The questions concerning a minimum resolution of a DEM re- quired for flood simulation and concerning the best aggregation procedure of a given DEM was answered by comparing the results obtained using all available standard GIS aggregation procedures. Seven different aggregation procedures were applied to high resolution DEMs (1-2m) in three cities (Bonn, Cologne, Luxembourg). Basing on this analysis the effect of 'uncertain' DEM data was estimated and compared with other sources of uncertainties. Especially socio-economic information and monetary transfer functions required for a damage risk analysis show a high uncertainty. There- fore this study helps to analyse the weak points of the flood risk and damage risk assessment procedure.

A robust H∞-tracking design for uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with unknown premise variables using descriptor redundancy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan Asemani, Mohammad; Johari Majd, Vahid

2015-12-01

This paper addresses a robust H∞ fuzzy observer-based tracking design problem for uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems with external disturbances. To have a practical observer-based controller, the premise variables of the system are assumed to be not measurable in general, which leads to a more complex design process. The tracker is synthesised based on a fuzzy Lyapunov function approach and non-parallel distributed compensation (non-PDC) scheme. Using the descriptor redundancy approach, the robust stability conditions are derived in the form of strict linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) even in the presence of uncertainties in the system, input, and output matrices simultaneously. Numerical simulations are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Adaptive output-feedback control for switched stochastic uncertain nonlinear systems with time-varying delay.

PubMed

Song, Zhibao; Zhai, Junyong

2018-04-01

This paper addresses the problem of adaptive output-feedback control for a class of switched stochastic time-delay nonlinear systems with uncertain output function, where both the control coefficients and time-varying delay are unknown. The drift and diffusion terms are subject to unknown homogeneous growth condition. By virtue of adding a power integrator technique, an adaptive output-feedback controller is designed to render that the closed-loop system is bounded in probability, and the state of switched stochastic nonlinear system can be globally regulated to the origin almost surely. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed control method. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plan Debugging Using Approximate Domain Theories.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-03-01

compelling suggestion that generative plan- ning systems solving large problems will need to exploit the control information implicit in uncertain...control information implicit in uncertain information may well lead the planner to expand one portion of a plan at one point, and a separate portion of...solutions that have been proposed are to abandon declarativism (as suggested in the work on situated automata theory and its variants [1, 16, 56, 72

DUAL STATE-PARAMETER UPDATING SCHEME ON A CONCEPTUAL HYDROLOGIC MODEL USING SEQUENTIAL MONTE CARLO FILTERS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Shiiba, Michiharu; Kim, Sunmin

Applications of data assimilation techniques have been widely used to improve upon the predictability of hydrologic modeling. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) filters, known as "particle filters" provide the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. This paper proposes a dual state-parameter updating scheme (DUS) based on SMC methods to estimate both state and parameter variables of a hydrologic model. We introduce a kernel smoothing method for the robust estimation of uncertain model parameters in the DUS. The applicability of the dual updating scheme is illustrated using the implementation of the storage function model on a middle-sized Japanese catchment. We also compare performance results of DUS combined with various SMC methods, such as SIR, ASIR and RPF.

Second-order sliding mode control with experimental application.

PubMed

Eker, Ilyas

2010-07-01

In this article, a second-order sliding mode control (2-SMC) is proposed for second-order uncertain plants using equivalent control approach to improve the performance of control systems. A Proportional + Integral + Derivative (PID) sliding surface is used for the sliding mode. The sliding mode control law is derived using direct Lyapunov stability approach and asymptotic stability is proved theoretically. The performance of the closed-loop system is analysed through an experimental application to an electromechanical plant to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed second-order sliding mode control and factors involved in the design. The second-order plant parameters are experimentally determined using input-output measured data. The results of the experimental application are presented to make a quantitative comparison with the traditional (first-order) sliding mode control (SMC) and PID control. It is demonstrated that the proposed 2-SMC system improves the performance of the closed-loop system with better tracking specifications in the case of external disturbances, better behavior of the output and faster convergence of the sliding surface while maintaining the stability. 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Key parameters of the sediment surface morphodynamics in an estuary - An assessment of model solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.

2018-05-01

Large-scale geomorphological evolution of an estuarine system was simulated by means of a hybrid estuarine sedimentation model (HESM) applied to the Guadiana Estuary, in Southwest Iberia. The model simulates the decadal-scale morphodynamics of the system under environmental forcing, using a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters, constrained by empirical knowledge of estuarine sedimentary dynamics and topography. The key controlling parameters of the model are bed friction (f), current velocity power of the erosion rate function (N), and sea-level rise rate. An assessment of sensitivity of the simulated sediment surface elevation (SSE) change to these controlling parameters was performed. The model predicted the spatial differentiation of accretion and erosion, the latter especially marked in the mudflats within mean sea level and low tide level and accretion was mainly in a subtidal channel. The average SSE change mutually depended on both the friction coefficient and power of the current velocity. Analysis of the average annual SSE change suggests that the state of intertidal and subtidal compartments of the estuarine system vary differently according to the dominant processes (erosion and accretion). As the Guadiana estuarine system shows dominant erosional behaviour in the context of sea-level rise and sediment supply reduction after the closure of the Alqueva Dam, the most plausible sets of parameter values for the Guadiana Estuary are N = 1.8 and f = 0.8f0, or N = 2 and f = f0, where f0 is the empirically estimated value. For these sets of parameter values, the relative errors in SSE change did not exceed ±20% in 73% of simulation cells in the studied area. Such a limit of accuracy can be acceptable for an idealized modelling of coastal evolution in response to uncertain sea-level rise scenarios in the context of reduced sediment supply due to flow regulation. Therefore, the idealized but cost-effective HESM model will be suitable for estimating the morphological impacts of sea-level rise on estuarine systems on a decadal timescale.

An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Li, L.; Lin, Y.; Xue, W.; Xie, F.; Xu, H.; Huang, X.

2015-05-01

Physical parameterizations in General Circulation Models (GCMs), having various uncertain parameters, greatly impact model performance and model climate sensitivity. Traditional manual and empirical tuning of these parameters is time consuming and ineffective. In this study, a "three-step" methodology is proposed to automatically and effectively obtain the optimum combination of some key parameters in cloud and convective parameterizations according to a comprehensive objective evaluation metrics. Different from the traditional optimization methods, two extra steps, one determines parameter sensitivity and the other chooses the optimum initial value of sensitive parameters, are introduced before the downhill simplex method to reduce the computational cost and improve the tuning performance. Atmospheric GCM simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9%. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameters tuning during the model development stage.

Differential parasitism of seed-feeding Cydia (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) by native and alien wasp species relative to elevation in subalpine Sophora (Fabaceae) forests on Mauna Kea, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oboyski, P.T.; Slotterback, J.W.; Banko, P.C.

2004-01-01

Alien parasitic wasps, including accidental introductions and purposefully released biological control agents, have been implicated in the decline of native Hawaiian Lepidoptera. Understanding the potential impacts of alien wasps requires knowledge of ecological parameters that influence parasitism rates for species in their new environment. Sophora seed-feeding Cydia spp. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) were surveyed for larval parasitoids to determine how native and alien wasps are partitioned over an elevation gradient (2200-2800 m) on Hawaii Island, Hawaii. Parasitism rate of native Euderus metallicus (Eulophidae) increased with increased elevation, while parasitism rate by immigrant Calliephialtes grapholithae (Ichneumonidae) decreased. Parasitism by Pristomerus hawaiiensis (Ichneumonidae), origins uncertain, also decreased with increased elevation. Two other species, Diadegma blackburni (Ichneumonidae), origins uncertain, and Brasema cushmani (Eupelmidae), a purposefully introduced biological control agent for pepper weevil, did not vary significantly with elevation. Results are contrasted with a previous study of this system with implications for the conservation of an endangered bird species that feed on Cydia larvae. Interpretation of results is hindered by lack of knowledge of autecology of moths and wasps, origins, phylogeny, systematics, competitive ability, and physiological limitations of each wasp species. These factors should be incorporated into risk analysis for biological control introductions and invasive species programs. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Does Aerosol Geoengineering the Earth's Climate Pass a Cost-Benefit Test?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, K.; Urban, N.; Tuana, N.

2007-12-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are changing the Earth's climate with potentially dangerous consequences. Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of CO2 emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent studies have, however, proposed an alternative strategy: to geoengineer Earth's climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. It is often claimed that aerosol geoengineering would provide net economic benefits because geoengineering requires far lower near-term investments compared to deep cuts in CO2 emissions. However, aerosol geoengineering projects can also cause nontrivial economic costs. This is because aerosol geoengineering hinges on successfully counterbalancing the forcing effects of CO2 emissions (which decay over centuries) with the forcing effects of aerosol emissions (which decay within years). A failure to maintain this delicate balance can lead to abrupt climatic changes, with potentially substantial economic damages. Deferring cuts in CO2 emissions in favor of aerosol geoengineering is hence a deeply uncertain gamble, as it requires so far unknown institutions to reliably control aerosol forcings over centuries. Here we use a simple economic model to evaluate potential costs and benefits of aerosol geoengineering for a wide range of the deeply uncertain parameters. We show that aerosol geoengineering projects may cause economic damages that can far exceed the benefits and may hence fail a cost-benefit test.

When does ecological sustainability ensure economic sustainability? An integrated analysis of thresholds in semi-arid western rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobourn, K. M.; Peckham, S. D.

2011-12-01

The vulnerability of agri-environmental systems to ecological threshold events depends on the combined influence of economic factors and natural drivers, such as climate and disturbance. This analysis builds an integrated ecologic-economic model to evaluate the behavioral response of agricultural producers to changing and uncertain natural conditions. The model explicitly reflects the effect of producer behavior on the likelihood of a threshold event that threatens the ecological and/or economic sustainability of the agri-environmental system. The foundation of the analysis is a threshold indicator that incorporates the population dynamics of a species that supports economic production and an episodic disturbance regime-in this case rangeland grass that is grazed by livestock and is subject to wildfire. This ecological indicator is integrated into an economic model in which producers choose grazing intensity given the state of the grass population and a set of economic parameters. We examine two model variants that characterize differing economic circumstances. The first characterizes the optimal grazing regime assuming that the system is managed by a single planner whose objective is to maximize the aggregate long-run returns of producers in the system. The second examines the case in which individual producers choose their own stocking rates in order to maximize their private economic benefit. The results from the first model variant illustrate the difference between an ecologic and an economic threshold. Failure to cross an ecological threshold does not necessarily ensure that the system remains economically viable: Economic sustainability, defined as the ability of the system to support optimal production into the infinite future, requires that the net growth rate of the supporting population exceeds the level required for ecological sustainability by an amount that depends on the market price of livestock and grazing efficiency. The results from the second model variant define the circumstances under which a system that is otherwise ecologically sustainable is driven over a threshold by the actions of economic agents. The difference between the two model solutions identifies bounds between which the viability of livestock production over the long-run is uncertain and depends upon the policy setting in which the agri-environmental system operates.

Hydraulic fracture propagation modeling and data-based fracture identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jing

Successful shale gas and tight oil production is enabled by the engineering innovation of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulically induced fractures will most likely deviate from the bi-wing planar pattern and generate complex fracture networks due to mechanical interactions and reservoir heterogeneity, both of which render the conventional fracture simulators insufficient to characterize the fractured reservoir. Moreover, in reservoirs with ultra-low permeability, the natural fractures are widely distributed, which will result in hydraulic fractures branching and merging at the interface and consequently lead to the creation of more complex fracture networks. Thus, developing a reliable hydraulic fracturing simulator, including both mechanical interaction and fluid flow, is critical in maximizing hydrocarbon recovery and optimizing fracture/well design and completion strategy in multistage horizontal wells. A novel fully coupled reservoir flow and geomechanics model based on the dual-lattice system is developed to simulate multiple nonplanar fractures' propagation in both homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs with or without pre-existing natural fractures. Initiation, growth, and coalescence of the microcracks will lead to the generation of macroscopic fractures, which is explicitly mimicked by failure and removal of bonds between particles from the discrete element network. This physics-based modeling approach leads to realistic fracture patterns without using the empirical rock failure and fracture propagation criteria required in conventional continuum methods. Based on this model, a sensitivity study is performed to investigate the effects of perforation spacing, in-situ stress anisotropy, rock properties (Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, and compressive strength), fluid properties, and natural fracture properties on hydraulic fracture propagation. In addition, since reservoirs are buried thousands of feet below the surface, the parameters used in the reservoir flow simulator have large uncertainty. Those biased and uncertain parameters will result in misleading oil and gas recovery predictions. The Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to estimate and update both the state variables (pressure and saturations) and uncertain reservoir parameters (permeability). In order to directly incorporate spatial information such as fracture location and formation heterogeneity into the algorithm, a new covariance matrix method is proposed. This new method has been applied to a simplified single-phase reservoir and a complex black oil reservoir with complex structures to prove its capability in calibrating the reservoir parameters.

Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Utilization of Statistical Data and Domain Knowledge in Complex Cases.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin; Yao, Quanying

2018-05-01

The dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is a newly presented framework for uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning. It has been successfully applied to online fault diagnoses of large, complex industrial systems, and decease diagnoses. This paper extends the DUCG to model more complex cases than what could be previously modeled, e.g., the case in which statistical data are in different groups with or without overlap, and some domain knowledge and actions (new variables with uncertain causalities) are introduced. In other words, this paper proposes to use -mode, -mode, and -mode of the DUCG to model such complex cases and then transform them into either the standard -mode or the standard -mode. In the former situation, if no directed cyclic graph is involved, the transformed result is simply a Bayesian network (BN), and existing inference methods for BNs can be applied. In the latter situation, an inference method based on the DUCG is proposed. Examples are provided to illustrate the methodology.

Formation Learning Control of Multiple Autonomous Underwater Vehicles With Heterogeneous Nonlinear Uncertain Dynamics.

PubMed

Yuan, Chengzhi; Licht, Stephen; He, Haibo

2017-09-26

In this paper, a new concept of formation learning control is introduced to the field of formation control of multiple autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), which specifies a joint objective of distributed formation tracking control and learning/identification of nonlinear uncertain AUV dynamics. A novel two-layer distributed formation learning control scheme is proposed, which consists of an upper-layer distributed adaptive observer and a lower-layer decentralized deterministic learning controller. This new formation learning control scheme advances existing techniques in three important ways: 1) the multi-AUV system under consideration has heterogeneous nonlinear uncertain dynamics; 2) the formation learning control protocol can be designed and implemented by each local AUV agent in a fully distributed fashion without using any global information; and 3) in addition to the formation control performance, the distributed control protocol is also capable of accurately identifying the AUVs' heterogeneous nonlinear uncertain dynamics and utilizing experiences to improve formation control performance. Extensive simulations have been conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Adaptive Neural Network Based Control of Noncanonical Nonlinear Systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanjun; Tao, Gang; Chen, Mou

2016-09-01

This paper presents a new study on the adaptive neural network-based control of a class of noncanonical nonlinear systems with large parametric uncertainties. Unlike commonly studied canonical form nonlinear systems whose neural network approximation system models have explicit relative degree structures, which can directly be used to derive parameterized controllers for adaptation, noncanonical form nonlinear systems usually do not have explicit relative degrees, and thus their approximation system models are also in noncanonical forms. It is well-known that the adaptive control of noncanonical form nonlinear systems involves the parameterization of system dynamics. As demonstrated in this paper, it is also the case for noncanonical neural network approximation system models. Effective control of such systems is an open research problem, especially in the presence of uncertain parameters. This paper shows that it is necessary to reparameterize such neural network system models for adaptive control design, and that such reparameterization can be realized using a relative degree formulation, a concept yet to be studied for general neural network system models. This paper then derives the parameterized controllers that guarantee closed-loop stability and asymptotic output tracking for noncanonical form neural network system models. An illustrative example is presented with the simulation results to demonstrate the control design procedure, and to verify the effectiveness of such a new design method.

Objective calibration of regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellprat, O.; Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; SchäR, C.

2012-12-01

Climate models are subject to high parametric uncertainty induced by poorly confined model parameters of parameterized physical processes. Uncertain model parameters are typically calibrated in order to increase the agreement of the model with available observations. The common practice is to adjust uncertain model parameters manually, often referred to as expert tuning, which lacks objectivity and transparency in the use of observations. These shortcomings often haze model inter-comparisons and hinder the implementation of new model parameterizations. Methods which would allow to systematically calibrate model parameters are unfortunately often not applicable to state-of-the-art climate models, due to computational constraints facing the high dimensionality and non-linearity of the problem. Here we present an approach to objectively calibrate a regional climate model, using reanalysis driven simulations and building upon a quadratic metamodel presented by Neelin et al. (2010) that serves as a computationally cheap surrogate of the model. Five model parameters originating from different parameterizations are selected for the optimization according to their influence on the model performance. The metamodel accurately estimates spatial averages of 2 m temperature, precipitation and total cloud cover, with an uncertainty of similar magnitude as the internal variability of the regional climate model. The non-linearities of the parameter perturbations are well captured, such that only a limited number of 20-50 simulations are needed to estimate optimal parameter settings. Parameter interactions are small, which allows to further reduce the number of simulations. In comparison to an ensemble of the same model which has undergone expert tuning, the calibration yields similar optimal model configurations, but leading to an additional reduction of the model error. The performance range captured is much wider than sampled with the expert-tuned ensemble and the presented methodology is effective and objective. It is argued that objective calibration is an attractive tool and could become standard procedure after introducing new model implementations, or after a spatial transfer of a regional climate model. Objective calibration of parameterizations with regional models could also serve as a strategy toward improving parameterization packages of global climate models.

Second-order sliding mode controller with model reference adaptation for automatic train operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganesan, M.; Ezhilarasi, D.; Benni, Jijo

2017-11-01

In this paper, a new approach to model reference based adaptive second-order sliding mode control together with adaptive state feedback is presented to control the longitudinal dynamic motion of a high speed train for automatic train operation with the objective of minimal jerk travel by the passengers. The nonlinear dynamic model for the longitudinal motion of the train comprises of a locomotive and coach subsystems is constructed using multiple point-mass model by considering the forces acting on the vehicle. An adaptation scheme using Lyapunov criterion is derived to tune the controller gains by considering a linear, stable reference model that ensures the stability of the system in closed loop. The effectiveness of the controller tracking performance is tested under uncertain passenger load, coupler-draft gear parameters, propulsion resistance coefficients variations and environmental disturbances due to side wind and wet rail conditions. The results demonstrate improved tracking performance of the proposed control scheme with a least jerk under maximum parameter uncertainties when compared to constant gain second-order sliding mode control.

Microphysical parameters of cirrus clouds using lidar at a tropical station, Gadanki, Tirupati (13.5° N, 79.2°E), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satyanarayana, M.; Radhakrishnan, S.-R.; Krishnakumar, V.; Mahadevan Pillai, V. P.; Raghunath, K.

2008-12-01

Cirrus clouds have been identified as one of the most uncertain component in the atmospheric research. It is known that cirrus clouds modulate the earth's climate through direct and indirect modification of radiation. The role of cirrus clouds depends mainly on their microphysical properties. To understand cirrus clouds better, we must observe and characterize their properties. In-situ observation of such clouds is a challenging experiment, as the clouds are located at high altitudes. Active remote sensing method based on lidar can detect high and thin cirrus clouds with good spatial and temporal resolution. We present the result obtained on the microphysical properties of the cirrus clouds at two Tropical stations namely Gadhanki, Tirupati (13.50 N, 79.20 E), India and Trivandrum (13.50 N, 770 E) Kerala, India from the ground based pulsed Nd: YAG lidar systems installed at the stations. A variant of the widely used Klett's lidar inversion method with range dependent scattering ratio is used for the present study for the retrieval of aerosol extinction and microphysical parameters of cirrus cloud.

Hard Constraints in Optimization Under Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2008-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design of systems subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements are specified via hard inequality constraints. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations within a given uncertainty model. Uncertainty models given by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles, are the focus of this paper. These models, which are also quite practical, allow for a rigorous mathematical treatment within the proposed framework. Hard constraint feasibility is determined by sizing the largest uncertainty set for which the design requirements are satisfied. Analytically verifiable assessments of robustness are attained by comparing this set with the actual uncertainty model. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness characteristics of competing design alternatives, the description and approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the tools derived only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, this methodology is applicable to a broad range of engineering problems.

Robot Path Planning in Uncertain Environments: A Language Measure-theoretic Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

Paper DS-14-1028 to appear in the Special Issue on Stochastic Models, Control and Algorithms in Robotics, ASME Journal of Dynamic Systems...Measurement and Control Robot Path Planning in Uncertain Environments: A Language Measure-theoretic Approach⋆ Devesh K. Jha† Yue Li† Thomas A. Wettergren‡† Asok...algorithm, called ν⋆, that was formulated in the framework of probabilistic finite state automata (PFSA) and language measure from a control -theoretic

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Elliott, Kenny B.

2007-01-01

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

Polishing of silicon based advanced ceramics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klocke, Fritz; Dambon, Olaf; Zunke, Richard; Waechter, D.

2009-05-01

Silicon based advanced ceramics show advantages in comparison to other materials due to their extreme hardness, wear and creep resistance, low density and low coefficient of thermal expansion. As a matter of course, machining requires high efforts. In order to reach demanded low roughness for optical or tribological applications a defect free surface is indispensable. In this paper, polishing of silicon nitride and silicon carbide is investigated. The objective is to elaborate scientific understanding of the process interactions. Based on this knowledge, the optimization of removal rate, surface quality and form accuracy can be realized. For this purpose, fundamental investigations of polishing silicon based ceramics are undertaken and evaluated. Former scientific publications discuss removal mechanisms and wear behavior, but the scientific insight is mainly based on investigations in grinding and lapping. The removal mechanisms in polishing are not fully understood due to complexity of interactions. The role of, e.g., process parameters, slurry and abrasives, and their influence on the output parameters is still uncertain. Extensive technological investigations demonstrate the influence of the polishing system and the machining parameters on the stability and the reproducibility. It is shown that the interactions between the advanced ceramics and the polishing systems is of great relevance. Depending on the kind of slurry and polishing agent the material removal mechanisms differ. The observed effects can be explained by dominating mechanical or chemo-mechanical removal mechanisms. Therefore, hypotheses to state adequate explanations are presented and validated by advanced metrology devices, such as SEM, AFM and TEM.

Optimisation of lateral car dynamics taking into account parameter uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busch, Jochen; Bestle, Dieter

2014-02-01

Simulation studies on an active all-wheel-steering car show that disturbance of vehicle parameters have high influence on lateral car dynamics. This motivates the need of robust design against such parameter uncertainties. A specific parametrisation is established combining deterministic, velocity-dependent steering control parameters with partly uncertain, velocity-independent vehicle parameters for simultaneous use in a numerical optimisation process. Model-based objectives are formulated and summarised in a multi-objective optimisation problem where especially the lateral steady-state behaviour is improved by an adaption strategy based on measurable uncertainties. The normally distributed uncertainties are generated by optimal Latin hypercube sampling and a response surface based strategy helps to cut down time consuming model evaluations which offers the possibility to use a genetic optimisation algorithm. Optimisation results are discussed in different criterion spaces and the achieved improvements confirm the validity of the proposed procedure.

A Verification-Driven Approach to Control Analysis and Tuning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2008-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and tuning of controllers using control verification metrics. These metrics, which are introduced in a companion paper, measure the size of the largest uncertainty set of a given class for which the closed-loop specifications are satisfied. This framework integrates deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty models into a setting that enables the deformation of sets in the parameter space, the control design space, and in the union of these two spaces. In regard to control analysis, we propose strategies that enable bounding regions of the design space where the specifications are satisfied by all the closed-loop systems associated with a prescribed uncertainty set. When this is unfeasible, we bound regions where the probability of satisfying the requirements exceeds a prescribed value. In regard to control tuning, we propose strategies for the improvement of the robust characteristics of a baseline controller. Some of these strategies use multi-point approximations to the control verification metrics in order to alleviate the numerical burden of solving a min-max problem. Since this methodology targets non-linear systems having an arbitrary, possibly implicit, functional dependency on the uncertain parameters and for which high-fidelity simulations are available, they are applicable to realistic engineering problems..

Sex Differences in the Relation of Body Composition to Cardiovascular Parameters and Functions in Korean Adolescents: A School-Based Study

PubMed Central

Song, Young-Hwan; Kim, Hae Soon; Park, Hae Sook; Jung, Jo Won; Kim, Nam Su; Noh, Chung Il; Hong, Young Mi

2014-01-01

Objective Obesity in adolescence is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. The patterns of obesity and body composition differ between boys and girls. It is uncertain how body composition correlates with the cardiovascular system and whether such correlations differ by sex in adolescents. Methods Body composition (fat-free mass (FFM), adipose mass, waist circumference (WC)) and cardiovascular parameters and functions were studied in 676 healthy Korean adolescents aged 12-16 years. Partial correlation and path analyses were done. Results WC correlated with stroke volume (SV) and cardiac output (CO), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and pulse pressure (PP), cardiac diastolic function (ratio of early to late filling velocity (E/A ratio)), and vascular function (pulse wave velocity (PWV)) in boys. Adipose mass was related to SV, CO, SBP, PP, left ventricular mass (LVM), and PWV in girls – and to E/A ratio in both sexes. FFM affected SV, CO, SBP, and PP in both sexes and LVM in boys. Cardiac systolic functions had no relation with any body composition variable in either sex. Conclusion In adolescence, the interdependence of the cardiovascular system and the body composition differs between sexes. Understanding of those relations is required to control adolescent obesity and prevent adult cardiovascular disease. PMID:24820977

A new design of robust H∞ sliding mode control for uncertain stochastic T-S fuzzy time-delay systems.

PubMed

Gao, Qing; Feng, Gang; Xi, Zhiyu; Wang, Yong; Qiu, Jianbin

2014-09-01

In this paper, a novel dynamic sliding mode control scheme is proposed for a class of uncertain stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems represented by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models. The key advantage of the proposed scheme is that two very restrictive assumptions in most existing sliding mode control approaches for stochastic fuzzy systems have been removed. It is shown that the closed-loop control system trajectories can be driven onto the sliding surface in finite time almost certainly. It is also shown that the stochastic stability of the resulting sliding motion can be guaranteed in terms of linear matrix inequalities; moreover, the sliding-mode controller can be obtained simultaneously. Simulation results illustrating the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approaches are also provided.

The Social Network of Tracer Variations and O(100) Uncertain Photochemical Parameters in the Community Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Labute, M.; Chowdhary, K.; Debusschere, B.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.

2014-12-01

Simulating the atmospheric cycles of ozone, methane, and other radiatively important trace gases in global climate models is computationally demanding and requires the use of 100's of photochemical parameters with uncertain values. Quantitative analysis of the effects of these uncertainties on tracer distributions, radiative forcing, and other model responses is hindered by the "curse of dimensionality." We describe efforts to overcome this curse using ensemble simulations and advanced statistical methods. Uncertainties from 95 photochemical parameters in the trop-MOZART scheme were sampled using a Monte Carlo method and propagated through 10,000 simulations of the single column version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The variance of the ensemble was represented as a network with nodes and edges, and the topology and connections in the network were analyzed using lasso regression, Bayesian compressive sensing, and centrality measures from the field of social network theory. Despite the limited sample size for this high dimensional problem, our methods determined the key sources of variation and co-variation in the ensemble and identified important clusters in the network topology. Our results can be used to better understand the flow of photochemical uncertainty in simulations using CAM and other climate models. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and supported by the DOE Office of Science through the Scientific Discovery Through Advanced Computing (SciDAC).

Robust nonlinear variable selective control for networked systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Behrooz

2016-10-01

This paper is concerned with the networked control of a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. In this way, Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy modelling is used to extend the previously proposed variable selective control (VSC) methodology to nonlinear systems. This extension is based upon the decomposition of the nonlinear system to a set of fuzzy-blended locally linearised subsystems and further application of the VSC methodology to each subsystem. To increase the applicability of the T-S approach for uncertain nonlinear networked control systems, this study considers the asynchronous premise variables in the plant and the controller, and then introduces a robust stability analysis and control synthesis. The resulting optimal switching-fuzzy controller provides a minimum guaranteed cost on an H2 performance index. Simulation studies on three nonlinear benchmark problems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Robust stability for stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with time delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, H. S.; Lv, Z. W.; Wei, G. L.

2008-02-01

In this paper, the asymptotic stability is considered for a class of uncertain stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with time delays and parameter uncertainties. The delays are time-invariant and the uncertainties are norm-bounded that enter into all network parameters. The aim of this paper is to establish easily verifiable conditions under which the delayed neural network is robustly asymptotically stable in the mean square for all admissible parameter uncertainties. By employing a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and conducting the stochastic analysis, a linear matrix inequality matrix inequality (LMI) approach is developed to derive the stability criteria. The proposed criteria can be easily checked by the Matlab LMI toolbox. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed criteria.

Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple Models (POEMs): co-ordinated experiments in the ISA-MIP model intercomparison activity component of the SPARC Stratospheric Sulphur and it's Role in Climate initiative (SSiRC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Lindsay; Mann, Graham; Carslaw, Ken; Toohey, Matthew; Aquila, Valentina

2016-04-01

The World Climate Research Program's SPARC initiative has a new international activity "Stratospheric Sulphur and its Role in Climate" (SSiRC) to better understand changes in stratospheric aerosol and precursor gaseous sulphur species. One component of SSiRC involves an intercomparison "ISA-MIP" of composition-climate models that simulate the stratospheric aerosol layer interactively. Within PoEMS each modelling group will run a "perturbed physics ensemble" (PPE) of interactive stratospheric aerosol (ISA) simulations of the Pinatubo eruption, varying several uncertain parameters associated with the eruption's SO2 emissions and model processes. A powerful new technique to quantify and attribute sources of uncertainty in complex global models is described by Lee et al. (2011, ACP). The analysis uses Gaussian emulation to derive a probability density function (pdf) of predicted quantities, essentially interpolating the PPE results in multi-dimensional parameter space. Once trained on the ensemble, a Monte Carlo simulation with the fast Gaussian emulator enabling a full variance-based sensitivity analysis. The approach has already been used effectively by Carslaw et al., (2013, Nature) to quantify the uncertainty in the cloud albedo effect forcing from a 3D global aerosol-microphysics model allowing to compare the sensitivy of different predicted quantities to uncertainties in natural and anthropogenic emissions types, and structural parameters in the models. Within ISA-MIP, each group will carry out a PPE of runs, with the subsequent analysis with the emulator assessing the uncertainty in the volcanic forcings predicted by each model. In this poster presentation we will give an outline of the "PoEMS" analysis, describing the uncertain parameters to be varied and the relevance to further understanding differences identified in previous international stratospheric aerosol assessments.

Regional robust stabilisation and domain-of-attraction estimation for MIMO uncertain nonlinear systems with input saturation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizi, S.; Torres, L. A. B.; Palhares, R. M.

2018-01-01

The regional robust stabilisation by means of linear time-invariant state feedback control for a class of uncertain MIMO nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties and control input saturation is investigated. The nonlinear systems are described in a differential algebraic representation and the regional stability is handled considering the largest ellipsoidal domain-of-attraction (DOA) inside a given polytopic region in the state space. A novel set of sufficient Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) conditions with new auxiliary decision variables are developed aiming to design less conservative linear state feedback controllers with corresponding larger DOAs, by considering the polytopic description of the saturated inputs. A few examples are presented showing favourable comparisons with recently published similar control design methodologies.

Robust adaptive fault-tolerant control for leader-follower flocking of uncertain multi-agent systems with actuator failure.

PubMed

Yazdani, Sahar; Haeri, Mohammad

2017-11-01

In this work, we study the flocking problem of multi-agent systems with uncertain dynamics subject to actuator failure and external disturbances. By considering some standard assumptions, we propose a robust adaptive fault tolerant protocol for compensating of the actuator bias fault, the partial loss of actuator effectiveness fault, the model uncertainties, and external disturbances. Under the designed protocol, velocity convergence of agents to that of virtual leader is guaranteed while the connectivity preservation of network and collision avoidance among agents are ensured as well. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for improving Space Shuttle engine reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyce, L.

1989-01-01

Probabilistic structural analysis methods are particularly useful in the design and analysis of critical structural components and systems that operate in very severe and uncertain environments. These methods have recently found application in space propulsion systems to improve the structural reliability of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. A computer program, NESSUS, based on a deterministic finite-element program and a method of probabilistic analysis (fast probability integration) provides probabilistic structural analysis for selected SSME components. While computationally efficient, it considers both correlated and nonnormal random variables as well as an implicit functional relationship between independent and dependent variables. The program is used to determine the response of a nickel-based superalloy SSME turbopump blade. Results include blade tip displacement statistics due to the variability in blade thickness, modulus of elasticity, Poisson's ratio or density. Modulus of elasticity significantly contributed to blade tip variability while Poisson's ratio did not. Thus, a rational method for choosing parameters to be modeled as random is provided.

Robustness analysis of uncertain dynamical neural networks with multiple time delays.

PubMed

Senan, Sibel

2015-10-01

This paper studies the problem of global robust asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for the class of dynamical neural networks with multiple time delays with respect to the class of slope-bounded activation functions and in the presence of the uncertainties of system parameters of the considered neural network model. By using an appropriate Lyapunov functional and exploiting the properties of the homeomorphism mapping theorem, we derive a new sufficient condition for the existence, uniqueness and global robust asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for the class of neural networks with multiple time delays. The obtained stability condition basically relies on testing some relationships imposed on the interconnection matrices of the neural system, which can be easily verified by using some certain properties of matrices. An instructive numerical example is also given to illustrate the applicability of our result and show the advantages of this new condition over the previously reported corresponding results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drug delivery systems: optimising the structure of peptide carriers for synthetic antimicrobial drugs.

PubMed

Payne, J W

1986-01-01

This paper discusses the concept of smugglins, i.e., molecules that are formed by attaching to, or incorporating into, normal cell nutrients varied moieties as a means of transporting otherwise impermeant substances into cells. Examples of antimicrobial smugglins that use this principle in Nature are described. The rationally designed antibiotic smugglins investigated to date are critically reviewed. Criteria for the design of optimal peptide carriers for antimicrobial smugglins are considered. A computer-linked, continuous-flow system for rapid measurement of the kinetic parameters for substrate transport via peptide permeases is described which, together with current molecular, genetic and biochemical techniques, now provides the means to obtain the information on which rational design should be based; examples are given for Escherichia coli and Candida albicans. After an uncertain commercial start, it now seems likely that increasing understanding of the uptake processes and other relevant features will make drug targeting using peptide carriers an achievable goal. Certainly their widespread occurrence in Nature should provide added incentive for the design of synthetic smugglins.

Design and analysis of a model predictive controller for active queue management.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Chen, Hong; Yang, Xiaoping; Ma, Yan

2012-01-01

Model predictive (MP) control as a novel active queue management (AQM) algorithm in dynamic computer networks is proposed. According to the predicted future queue length in the data buffer, early packets at the router are dropped reasonably by the MPAQM controller so that the queue length reaches the desired value with minimal tracking error. The drop probability is obtained by optimizing the network performance. Further, randomized algorithms are applied to analyze the robustness of MPAQM successfully, and also to provide the stability domain of systems with uncertain network parameters. The performances of MPAQM are evaluated through a series of simulations in NS2. The simulation results show that the MPAQM algorithm outperforms RED, PI, and REM algorithms in terms of stability, disturbance rejection, and robustness. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconstruction of Attitude Dynamics of Free Falling Units

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Y.; Ivchenko, N.; Tibert, G.; Schlatter, N. M.

2015-09-01

Attitude reconstruction of a free falling sphere for the experiment Multiple Spheres for Characterization of Atmosphere Temperatures (MUSCAT) is studied in this paper. The attitude dynamics is modeled through Euler's rotational equations of motion. To estimate uncertain parameters in this model such as the matrix of inertia and the lever arm for the dynamic pressure with respect to the center of mass, the dynamics reconstruction can be formulated as an optimization problem. The goal is to minimize the deviation between the measurements and the propagation from the system equations. This approach was tested against a couple of flight data sets which correspond to different periods of time. The result is very reasonable compared to the laboratory test. The estimate can be improved further through allowing drag coefficients variable and taking advantage of measurements from a magnetometer in numerical calculation.

Big data integration for regional hydrostratigraphic mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedel, M. J.

2013-12-01

Numerical models provide a way to evaluate groundwater systems, but determining the hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) used in devising these models remains subjective, nonunique, and uncertain. A novel geophysical-hydrogeologic data integration scheme is proposed to constrain the estimation of continuous HSUs. First, machine-learning and multivariate statistical techniques are used to simultaneously integrate borehole hydrogeologic (lithology, hydraulic conductivity, aqueous field parameters, dissolved constituents) and geophysical (gamma, spontaneous potential, and resistivity) measurements. Second, airborne electromagnetic measurements are numerically inverted to obtain subsurface resistivity structure at randomly selected locations. Third, the machine-learning algorithm is trained using the borehole hydrostratigraphic units and inverted airborne resistivity profiles. The trained machine-learning algorithm is then used to estimate HSUs at independent resistivity profile locations. We demonstrate efficacy of the proposed approach to map the hydrostratigraphy of a heterogeneous surficial aquifer in northwestern Nebraska.

Determining production level under uncertainty using fuzzy simulation and bootstrap technique, a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamidi, Mohammadreza; Shahanaghi, Kamran; Jabbarzadeh, Armin; Jahani, Ehsan; Pousti, Zahra

2017-12-01

In every production plant, it is necessary to have an estimation of production level. Sometimes there are many parameters affective in this estimation. In this paper, it tried to find an appropriate estimation of production level for an industrial factory called Barez in an uncertain environment. We have considered a part of production line, which has different production time for different kind of products, which means both environmental and system uncertainty. To solve the problem we have simulated the line and because of the uncertainty in the times, fuzzy simulation is considered. Required fuzzy numbers are estimated by the use of bootstrap technique. The results are used in production planning process by factory experts and have had satisfying consequences. Opinions of these experts about the efficiency of using this methodology, has been attached.

Methods for Discerning Cloud Reflectivity Changes due to the Indirect Effect of Aerosol: A Pilot-study for Triana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinne, S.; Wiscombe, Warren; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Understanding the effect of aerosol on cloud systems is one of the major challenges in atmospheric and climate research. Local studies suggest a multitude of influences on cloud properties. Yet the overall effect on cloud albedo, a critical parameter in climate simulations, remains uncertain. NASA's Triana mission will provide, from its EPIC multi-spectral imager, simultaneous data on aerosol properties and cloud reflectivity. With Triana's unique position in space these data will be available not only globally but also over the entire daytime, well suited to accommodate the often short lifetimes of aerosol and investigations around diurnal cycles. This pilot study explores the ability to detect relationships between aerosol properties and cloud reflectivity with sophisticated statistical methods. Sample results using data from the EOS Terra platform to simulate Triana are presented.

An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Li, L.; Lin, Y.; Xue, W.; Xie, F.; Xu, H.; Huang, X.

2015-11-01

Physical parameterizations in general circulation models (GCMs), having various uncertain parameters, greatly impact model performance and model climate sensitivity. Traditional manual and empirical tuning of these parameters is time-consuming and ineffective. In this study, a "three-step" methodology is proposed to automatically and effectively obtain the optimum combination of some key parameters in cloud and convective parameterizations according to a comprehensive objective evaluation metrics. Different from the traditional optimization methods, two extra steps, one determining the model's sensitivity to the parameters and the other choosing the optimum initial value for those sensitive parameters, are introduced before the downhill simplex method. This new method reduces the number of parameters to be tuned and accelerates the convergence of the downhill simplex method. Atmospheric GCM simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9 %. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameter tuning during the model development stage.

Likelihood of achieving air quality targets under model uncertainties.

PubMed

Digar, Antara; Cohan, Daniel S; Cox, Dennis D; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Boylan, James W

2011-01-01

Regulatory attainment demonstrations in the United States typically apply a bright-line test to predict whether a control strategy is sufficient to attain an air quality standard. Photochemical models are the best tools available to project future pollutant levels and are a critical part of regulatory attainment demonstrations. However, because photochemical models are uncertain and future meteorology is unknowable, future pollutant levels cannot be predicted perfectly and attainment cannot be guaranteed. This paper introduces a computationally efficient methodology for estimating the likelihood that an emission control strategy will achieve an air quality objective in light of uncertainties in photochemical model input parameters (e.g., uncertain emission and reaction rates, deposition velocities, and boundary conditions). The method incorporates Monte Carlo simulations of a reduced form model representing pollutant-precursor response under parametric uncertainty to probabilistically predict the improvement in air quality due to emission control. The method is applied to recent 8-h ozone attainment modeling for Atlanta, Georgia, to assess the likelihood that additional controls would achieve fixed (well-defined) or flexible (due to meteorological variability and uncertain emission trends) targets of air pollution reduction. The results show that in certain instances ranking of the predicted effectiveness of control strategies may differ between probabilistic and deterministic analyses.

Combined feedforward and model-assisted active disturbance rejection control for non-minimum phase system.

PubMed

Sun, Li; Li, Donghai; Gao, Zhiqiang; Yang, Zhao; Zhao, Shen

2016-09-01

Control of the non-minimum phase (NMP) system is challenging, especially in the presence of modelling uncertainties and external disturbances. To this end, this paper presents a combined feedforward and model-assisted Active Disturbance Rejection Control (MADRC) strategy. Based on the nominal model, the feedforward controller is used to produce a tracking performance that has minimum settling time subject to a prescribed undershoot constraint. On the other hand, the unknown disturbances and uncertain dynamics beyond the nominal model are compensated by MADRC. Since the conventional Extended State Observer (ESO) is not suitable for the NMP system, a model-assisted ESO (MESO) is proposed based on the nominal observable canonical form. The convergence of MESO is proved in time domain. The stability, steady-state characteristics and robustness of the closed-loop system are analyzed in frequency domain. The proposed strategy has only one tuning parameter, i.e., the bandwidth of MESO, which can be readily determined with a prescribed robustness level. Some comparative examples are given to show the efficacy of the proposed method. This paper depicts a promising prospect of the model-assisted ADRC in dealing with complex systems. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intelligent robust tracking control for a class of uncertain strict-feedback nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Chang, Yeong-Chan

2009-02-01

This paper addresses the problem of designing robust tracking controls for a large class of strict-feedback nonlinear systems involving plant uncertainties and external disturbances. The input and virtual input weighting matrices are perturbed by bounded time-varying uncertainties. An adaptive fuzzy-based (or neural-network-based) dynamic feedback tracking controller will be developed such that all the states and signals of the closed-loop system are bounded and the trajectory tracking error should be as small as possible. First, the adaptive approximators with linearly parameterized models are designed, and a partitioned procedure with respect to the developed adaptive approximators is proposed such that the implementation of the fuzzy (or neural network) basis functions depends only on the state variables but does not depend on the tuning approximation parameters. Furthermore, we extend to design the nonlinearly parameterized adaptive approximators. Consequently, the intelligent robust tracking control schemes developed in this paper possess the properties of computational simplicity and easy implementation. Finally, simulation examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control algorithms.

Development of a robust framework for controlling high performance turbofan engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miklosovic, Robert

This research involves the development of a robust framework for controlling complex and uncertain multivariable systems. Where mathematical modeling is often tedious or inaccurate, the new method uses an extended state observer (ESO) to estimate and cancel dynamic information in real time and dynamically decouple the system. As a result, controller design and tuning become transparent as the number of required model parameters is reduced. Much research has been devoted towards the application of modern multivariable control techniques on aircraft engines. However, few, if any, have been implemented on an operational aircraft, partially due to the difficulty in tuning the controller for satisfactory performance. The new technique is applied to a modern two-spool, high-pressure ratio, low-bypass turbofan with mixed-flow afterburning. A realistic Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (MAPSS) package, developed by NASA, is used to demonstrate the new design process and compare its performance with that of a supplied nominal controller. This approach is expected to reduce gain scheduling over the full operating envelope of the engine and allow a controller to be tuned for engine-to-engine variations.

Parametric optimal control of uncertain systems under an optimistic value criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Zhu, Yuanguo

2018-01-01

It is well known that the optimal control of a linear quadratic model is characterized by the solution of a Riccati differential equation. In many cases, the corresponding Riccati differential equation cannot be solved exactly such that the optimal feedback control may be a complex time-oriented function. In this article, a parametric optimal control problem of an uncertain linear quadratic model under an optimistic value criterion is considered for simplifying the expression of optimal control. Based on the equation of optimality for the uncertain optimal control problem, an approximation method is presented to solve it. As an application, a two-spool turbofan engine optimal control problem is given to show the utility of the proposed model and the efficiency of the presented approximation method.

Tsallis’ non-extensive free energy as a subjective value of an uncertain reward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Taiki

2009-03-01

Recent studies in neuroeconomics and econophysics revealed the importance of reward expectation in decision under uncertainty. Behavioral neuroeconomic studies have proposed that the unpredictability and the probability of an uncertain reward are distinctly encoded as entropy and a distorted probability weight, respectively, in the separate neural systems. However, previous behavioral economic and decision-theoretic models could not quantify reward-seeking and uncertainty aversion in a theoretically consistent manner. In this paper, we have: (i) proposed that generalized Helmholtz free energy in Tsallis’ non-extensive thermostatistics can be utilized to quantify a perceived value of an uncertain reward, and (ii) empirically examined the explanatory powers of the models. Future study directions in neuroeconomics and econophysics by utilizing the Tsallis’ free energy model are discussed.

Climate Change Impacts on Transportation; Groundwater Elevation, Road Performance, and Robust Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirshen, P. H.; Knott, J. F.; Ray, P.; Elshaer, M.; Daniel, J.; Jacobs, J. M.

2016-12-01

Transportation climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies have primarily focused on surface-water flooding from sea-level rise (SLR); little attention has been given to the effects of climate change and SLR on groundwater and subsequent impacts on the unbound foundation layers of coastal-road infrastructure. The magnitude of service-life reduction depends on the height of the groundwater in the unbound pavement materials, the pavement structure itself, and the loading. Using a steady-state groundwater model, and a multi-layer elastic pavement evaluation model, the strain changes in the layers can be determined as a function of parameter values and the strain changes translated into failure as measured by number of loading cycles to failure. For a section of a major coastal road in New Hampshire, future changes in sea-level, precipitation, temperature, land use, and groundwater pumping are characterized by deep uncertainty. Parameters that describe the groundwater system such as hydraulic conductivity can be probabilistically described while road characteristics are assumed to be deterministic. To understand the vulnerability of this road section, a bottom-up planning approach was employed over time where the combinations of parameter values that cause failure were determined and their plausibility of their occurring was analyzed. To design a robust adaptation strategy that will function reasonably well in the present and the future given the large number of uncertain parameter values, performance of adaptation options were investigated. Adaptation strategies that were considered include raising the road, load restrictions, increasing pavement layer thicknesses, replacing moisture-sensitive materials with materials that are not moisture sensitive, improving drainage systems, and treatment of the underlying materials.

'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

2016-04-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected static and interactive visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

2017-04-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability and being able to deal with case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

Optimal second order sliding mode control for linear uncertain systems.

PubMed

Das, Madhulika; Mahanta, Chitralekha

2014-11-01

In this paper an optimal second order sliding mode controller (OSOSMC) is proposed to track a linear uncertain system. The optimal controller based on the linear quadratic regulator method is designed for the nominal system. An integral sliding mode controller is combined with the optimal controller to ensure robustness of the linear system which is affected by parametric uncertainties and external disturbances. To achieve finite time convergence of the sliding mode, a nonsingular terminal sliding surface is added with the integral sliding surface giving rise to a second order sliding mode controller. The main advantage of the proposed OSOSMC is that the control input is substantially reduced and it becomes chattering free. Simulation results confirm superiority of the proposed OSOSMC over some existing. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive sensor-fault tolerant control for a class of multivariable uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Khebbache, Hicham; Tadjine, Mohamed; Labiod, Salim; Boulkroune, Abdesselem

2015-03-01

This paper deals with the active fault tolerant control (AFTC) problem for a class of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) uncertain nonlinear systems subject to sensor faults and external disturbances. The proposed AFTC method can tolerate three additive (bias, drift and loss of accuracy) and one multiplicative (loss of effectiveness) sensor faults. By employing backstepping technique, a novel adaptive backstepping-based AFTC scheme is developed using the fact that sensor faults and system uncertainties (including external disturbances and unexpected nonlinear functions caused by sensor faults) can be on-line estimated and compensated via robust adaptive schemes. The stability analysis of the closed-loop system is rigorously proven using a Lyapunov approach. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is illustrated by two simulation examples. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.

2014-12-01

Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

Project Delivery System Mode Decision Based on Uncertain AHP and Fuzzy Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaishan, Liu; Huimin, Li

2017-12-01

The project delivery system mode determines the contract pricing type, project management mode and the risk allocation among all participants. Different project delivery system modes have different characteristics and applicable scope. For the owners, the selection of the delivery mode is the key point to decide whether the project can achieve the expected benefits, it relates to the success or failure of project construction. Under the precondition of comprehensively considering the influence factors of the delivery mode, the model of project delivery system mode decision was set up on the basis of uncertain AHP and fuzzy sets, which can well consider the uncertainty and fuzziness when conducting the index evaluation and weight confirmation, so as to rapidly and effectively identify the most suitable delivery mode according to project characteristics. The effectiveness of the model has been verified via the actual case analysis in order to provide reference for the construction project delivery system mode.

A Black-Scholes Approach to Satisfying the Demand in a Failure-Prone Manufacturing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chavez-Fuentes, Jorge R.; Gonzalex, Oscar R.; Gray, W. Steven

2007-01-01

The goal of this paper is to use a financial model and a hedging strategy in a systems application. In particular, the classical Black-Scholes model, which was developed in 1973 to find the fair price of a financial contract, is adapted to satisfy an uncertain demand in a manufacturing system when one of two production machines is unreliable. This financial model together with a hedging strategy are used to develop a closed formula for the production strategies of each machine. The strategy guarantees that the uncertain demand will be met in probability at the final time of the production process. It is assumed that the production efficiency of the unreliable machine can be modeled as a continuous-time stochastic process. Two simple examples illustrate the result.

Cooperative learning neural network output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear multi-agent systems under directed topologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Wang, D.; Peng, Z. H.

2017-09-01

Without assuming that the communication topologies among the neural network (NN) weights are to be undirected and the states of each agent are measurable, the cooperative learning NN output feedback control is addressed for uncertain nonlinear multi-agent systems with identical structures in strict-feedback form. By establishing directed communication topologies among NN weights to share their learned knowledge, NNs with cooperative learning laws are employed to identify the uncertainties. By designing NN-based κ-filter observers to estimate the unmeasurable states, a new cooperative learning output feedback control scheme is proposed to guarantee that the system outputs can track nonidentical reference signals with bounded tracking errors. A simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

Cooperatively surrounding control for multiple Euler-Lagrange systems subjected to uncertain dynamics and input constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang-Ming; Lv, Yue-Yong; Li, Chuan-Jiang; Ma, Guang-Fu

2016-12-01

In this paper, we investigate cooperatively surrounding control (CSC) of multi-agent systems modeled by Euler-Lagrange (EL) equations under a directed graph. With the consideration of the uncertain dynamics in an EL system, a backstepping CSC algorithm combined with neural-networks is proposed first such that the agents can move cooperatively to surround the stationary target. Then, a command filtered backstepping CSC algorithm is further proposed to deal with the constraints on control input and the absence of neighbors’ velocity information. Numerical examples of eight satellites surrounding one space target illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB720000) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61304005 and 61403103).

Robust passive control for a class of uncertain neutral systems based on sliding mode observer.

PubMed

Liu, Zhen; Zhao, Lin; Kao, Yonggui; Gao, Cunchen

2017-01-01

The passivity-based sliding mode control (SMC) problem for a class of uncertain neutral systems with unmeasured states is investigated. Firstly, a particular non-fragile state observer is designed to generate the estimations of the system states, based upon which a novel integral-type sliding surface function is established for the control process. Secondly, a new sufficient condition for robust asymptotic stability and passivity of the resultant sliding mode dynamics (SMDs) is obtained in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Thirdly, the finite-time reachability of the predesigned sliding surface is ensured by resorting to a novel adaptive SMC law. Finally, the validity and superiority of the scheme are justified via several examples. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Terminal Sliding Mode-Based Consensus Tracking Control for Networked Uncertain Mechanical Systems on Digraphs.

PubMed

Chen, Gang; Song, Yongduan; Guan, Yanfeng

2018-03-01

This brief investigates the finite-time consensus tracking control problem for networked uncertain mechanical systems on digraphs. A new terminal sliding-mode-based cooperative control scheme is developed to guarantee that the tracking errors converge to an arbitrarily small bound around zero in finite time. All the networked systems can have different dynamics and all the dynamics are unknown. A neural network is used at each node to approximate the local unknown dynamics. The control schemes are implemented in a fully distributed manner. The proposed control method eliminates some limitations in the existing terminal sliding-mode-based consensus control methods and extends the existing analysis methods to the case of directed graphs. Simulation results on networked robot manipulators are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed control algorithms.

Adaptive non-predictor control of lower triangular uncertain nonlinear systems with an unknown time-varying delay in the input

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, Min-Sung; Choi, Ho-Lim

2018-01-01

In this paper, we consider a control problem for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems in which there exists an unknown time-varying delay in the input and lower triangular nonlinearities. Usually, in the existing results, input delays have been coupled with feedforward (or upper triangular) nonlinearities; in other words, the combination of lower triangular nonlinearities and input delay has been rare. Motivated by the existing controller for input-delayed chain of integrators with nonlinearity, we show that the control of input-delayed nonlinear systems with two particular types of lower triangular nonlinearities can be done. As a control solution, we propose a newly designed feedback controller whose main features are its dynamic gain and non-predictor approach. Three examples are given for illustration.

Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time-space evolutionary probability distribution - Part 2: numerical application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dib, Alain; Kavvas, M. Levent

2018-03-01

The characteristic form of the Saint-Venant equations is solved in a stochastic setting by using a newly proposed Fokker-Planck Equation (FPE) methodology. This methodology computes the ensemble behavior and variability of the unsteady flow in open channels by directly solving for the flow variables' time-space evolutionary probability distribution. The new methodology is tested on a stochastic unsteady open-channel flow problem, with an uncertainty arising from the channel's roughness coefficient. The computed statistical descriptions of the flow variables are compared to the results obtained through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in order to evaluate the performance of the FPE methodology. The comparisons show that the proposed methodology can adequately predict the results of the considered stochastic flow problem, including the ensemble averages, variances, and probability density functions in time and space. Unlike the large number of simulations performed by the MC approach, only one simulation is required by the FPE methodology. Moreover, the total computational time of the FPE methodology is smaller than that of the MC approach, which could prove to be a particularly crucial advantage in systems with a large number of uncertain parameters. As such, the results obtained in this study indicate that the proposed FPE methodology is a powerful and time-efficient approach for predicting the ensemble average and variance behavior, in both space and time, for an open-channel flow process under an uncertain roughness coefficient.

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

Robust master-slave synchronization for general uncertain delayed dynamical model based on adaptive control scheme.

PubMed

Wang, Tianbo; Zhou, Wuneng; Zhao, Shouwei; Yu, Weiqin

2014-03-01

In this paper, the robust exponential synchronization problem for a class of uncertain delayed master-slave dynamical system is investigated by using the adaptive control method. Different from some existing master-slave models, the considered master-slave system includes bounded unmodeled dynamics. In order to compensate the effect of unmodeled dynamics and effectively achieve synchronization, a novel adaptive controller with simple updated laws is proposed. Moreover, the results are given in terms of LMIs, which can be easily solved by LMI Toolbox in Matlab. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the method. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probing Reliability of Transport Phenomena Based Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow Analysis in Autogeneous Fusion Welding Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bag, S.; de, A.

2010-09-01

The transport phenomena based heat transfer and fluid flow calculations in weld pool require a number of input parameters. Arc efficiency, effective thermal conductivity, and viscosity in weld pool are some of these parameters, values of which are rarely known and difficult to assign a priori based on the scientific principles alone. The present work reports a bi-directional three-dimensional (3-D) heat transfer and fluid flow model, which is integrated with a real number based genetic algorithm. The bi-directional feature of the integrated model allows the identification of the values of a required set of uncertain model input parameters and, next, the design of process parameters to achieve a target weld pool dimension. The computed values are validated with measured results in linear gas-tungsten-arc (GTA) weld samples. Furthermore, a novel methodology to estimate the overall reliability of the computed solutions is also presented.

Introduced and invasive species in novel rangeland ecosystems: friends or foes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Ludwig, John A.; Wilcox, Bradford P.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Dean, W. Richard J.; Hoffmann, Benjamin D.; Milton, Sue J.

2012-01-01

Globally, new combinations of introduced and native plant and animal species have changed rangelands into novel ecosystems. Whereas many rangeland stakeholders (people who use or have an interest in rangelands) view intentional species introductions to improve forage and control erosion as beneficial, others focus on unintended costs, such as increased fire risk, loss of rangeland biodiversity, and threats to conservation efforts, specifically in nature reserves and parks. These conflicting views challenge all rangeland stakeholders, especially those making decisions on how best to manage novel ecosystems. To formulate a conceptual framework for decision making, we examined a wide range of novel ecosystems, created by intentional and unintentional introductions of nonnative species and land-use–facilitated spread of native ones. This framework simply divides decision making into two types: 1) straightforward–certain, and 2) complex–uncertain. We argue that management decisions to retain novel ecosystems are certain when goods and services provided by the system far outweigh the costs of restoration, for example in the case of intensively managed Cenchrus pastures. Decisions to return novel ecosystems to natural systems are also certain when the value of the system is low and restoration is easy and inexpensive as in the case of biocontrol of Opuntia infestations. In contrast, decisions whether to retain or restore novel ecosystems become complex and uncertain in cases where benefits are low and costs of control are high as, for example, in the case of stopping the expansion of Prosopis and Juniperus into semiarid rangelands. Decisions to retain or restore novel ecosystems are also complex and uncertain when, for example, nonnative Eucalyptus trees expand along natural streams, negatively affecting biodiversity, but also providing timber and honey. When decision making is complex and uncertain, we suggest that rangeland managers utilize cost–benefit analyses and hold stakeholder workshops to resolve conflicts.

A CPS Based Optimal Operational Control System for Fused Magnesium Furnace

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chai, Tian-you; Wu, Zhi-wei; Wang, Hong

Fused magnesia smelting for fused magnesium furnace (FMF) is an energy intensive process with high temperature and comprehensive complexities. Its operational index namely energy consumption per ton (ECPT) is defined as the consumed electrical energy per ton of acceptable quality and is difficult to measure online. Moreover, the dynamics of ECPT cannot be precisely modelled mathematically. The model parameters of the three-phase currents of the electrodes such as the molten pool level, its variation rate and resistance are uncertain and nonlinear functions of the changes in both the smelting process and the raw materials composition. In this paper, an integratedmore » optimal operational control algorithm proposed is composed of a current set-point control, a current switching control and a self-optimized tuning mechanism. The tight conjoining of and coordination between the computational resources including the integrated optimal operational control, embedded software, industrial cloud, wireless communication and the physical resources of FMF constitutes a cyber-physical system (CPS) based embedded optimal operational control system. Successful application of this system has been made for a production line with ten fused magnesium furnaces in a factory in China, leading to a significant reduced ECPT.« less

Modeling and Measurement Constraints in Fault Diagnostics for HVAC Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Najafi, Massieh; Auslander, David M.; Bartlett, Peter L.

2010-05-30

Many studies have shown that energy savings of five to fifteen percent are achievable in commercial buildings by detecting and correcting building faults, and optimizing building control systems. However, in spite of good progress in developing tools for determining HVAC diagnostics, methods to detect faults in HVAC systems are still generally undeveloped. Most approaches use numerical filtering or parameter estimation methods to compare data from energy meters and building sensors to predictions from mathematical or statistical models. They are effective when models are relatively accurate and data contain few errors. In this paper, we address the case where models aremore » imperfect and data are variable, uncertain, and can contain error. We apply a Bayesian updating approach that is systematic in managing and accounting for most forms of model and data errors. The proposed method uses both knowledge of first principle modeling and empirical results to analyze the system performance within the boundaries defined by practical constraints. We demonstrate the approach by detecting faults in commercial building air handling units. We find that the limitations that exist in air handling unit diagnostics due to practical constraints can generally be effectively addressed through the proposed approach.« less

Multivariable control of the Space Shuttle remote manipulator system using H2 and H(infinity) optimization. M.S. Thesis - Massachusetts Inst. of Tech.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prakash, OM, II

1991-01-01

Three linear controllers are desiged to regulate the end effector of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) operating in Position Hold Mode. In this mode of operation, jet firings of the Orbiter can be treated as disturbances while the controller tries to keep the end effector stationary in an orbiter-fixed reference frame. The three design techniques used include: the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR), H2 optimization, and H-infinity optimization. The nonlinear SRMS is linearized by modelling the effects of the significant nonlinearities as uncertain parameters. Each regulator design is evaluated for robust stability in light of the parametric uncertanties using both the small gain theorem with an H-infinity norm and the less conservative micro-analysis test. All three regulator designs offer significant improvement over the current system on the nominal plant. Unfortunately, even after dropping performance requirements and designing exclusively for robust stability, robust stability cannot be achieved. The SRMS suffers from lightly damped poles with real parametric uncertainties. Such a system renders the micro-analysis test, which allows for complex peturbations, too conservative.

Moment-based metrics for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dell'Oca, Aronne; Riva, Monica; Guadagnini, Alberto

2017-12-01

We propose new metrics to assist global sensitivity analysis, GSA, of hydrological and Earth systems. Our approach allows assessing the impact of uncertain parameters on main features of the probability density function, pdf, of a target model output, y. These include the expected value of y, the spread around the mean and the degree of symmetry and tailedness of the pdf of y. Since reliable assessment of higher-order statistical moments can be computationally demanding, we couple our GSA approach with a surrogate model, approximating the full model response at a reduced computational cost. Here, we consider the generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE), other model reduction techniques being fully compatible with our theoretical framework. We demonstrate our approach through three test cases, including an analytical benchmark, a simplified scenario mimicking pumping in a coastal aquifer and a laboratory-scale conservative transport experiment. Our results allow ascertaining which parameters can impact some moments of the model output pdf while being uninfluential to others. We also investigate the error associated with the evaluation of our sensitivity metrics by replacing the original system model through a gPCE. Our results indicate that the construction of a surrogate model with increasing level of accuracy might be required depending on the statistical moment considered in the GSA. The approach is fully compatible with (and can assist the development of) analysis techniques employed in the context of reduction of model complexity, model calibration, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.

Towards improved hydrologic predictions using data assimilation techniques for water resource management at the continental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naz, Bibi; Kurtz, Wolfgang; Kollet, Stefan; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Sharples, Wendy; Görgen, Klaus; Keune, Jessica; Kulkarni, Ketan

2017-04-01

More accurate and reliable hydrologic simulations are important for many applications such as water resource management, future water availability projections and predictions of extreme events. However, simulation of spatial and temporal variations in the critical water budget components such as precipitation, snow, evaporation and runoff is highly uncertain, due to errors in e.g. model structure and inputs (hydrologic parameters and forcings). In this study, we use data assimilation techniques to improve the predictability of continental-scale water fluxes using in-situ measurements along with remotely sensed information to improve hydrologic predications for water resource systems. The Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM) integrated with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) was implemented at spatial resolution of 1/36 degree (3 km) over the European CORDEX domain. The modeling system was forced with a high-resolution reanalysis system COSMO-REA6 from Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ) and ERA-Interim datasets for time period of 1994-2014. A series of data assimilation experiments were conducted to assess the efficiency of assimilation of various observations, such as river discharge data, remotely sensed soil moisture, terrestrial water storage and snow measurements into the CLM-PDAF at regional to continental scales. This setup not only allows to quantify uncertainties, but also improves streamflow predictions by updating simultaneously model states and parameters utilizing observational information. The results from different regions, watershed sizes, spatial resolutions and timescales are compared and discussed in this study.

Adaptive nonsingular terminal sliding mode controller for micro/nanopositioning systems driven by linear piezoelectric ceramic motors.

PubMed

Safa, Alireza; Abdolmalaki, Reza Yazdanpanah; Shafiee, Saeed; Sadeghi, Behzad

2018-06-01

In the field of nanotechnology, there is a growing demand to provide precision control and manipulation of devices with the ability to interact with complex and unstructured environments at micro/nano-scale. As a result, ultrahigh-precision positioning stages have been turned into a key requirement of nanotechnology. In this paper, linear piezoelectric ceramic motors (LPCMs) are adopted to drive micro/nanopositioning stages since they have the ability to achieve high precision in addition to being versatile to be implemented over a wide range of applications. In the establishment of a control scheme for such manipulation systems, the presence of friction, parameter uncertainties, and external disturbances prevent the systems from providing the desired positioning accuracy. The work in this paper focuses on the development of a control framework that addresses these issues as it uses the nonsingular terminal sliding mode technique for the precise position tracking problem of an LPCM-driven positioning stage with friction, uncertain parameters, and external disturbances. The developed control algorithm exhibits the following two attractive features. First, upper bounds of system uncertainties/perturbations are adaptively estimated in the proposed controller; thus, prior knowledge about uncertainty/disturbance bounds is not necessary. Second, the discontinuous signum function is transferred to the time derivative of the control input and the continuous control signal is obtained after integration; consequently, the chattering phenomenon, which presents a major handicap to the implementation of conventional sliding mode control in real applications, is alleviated without deteriorating the robustness of the system. The stability of the controlled system is analyzed, and the convergence of the position tracking error to zero is analytically proven. The proposed control strategy is experimentally validated and compared to the existing control approaches. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of probabilistic multimedia multipathway computer codes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, C.; LePoire, D.; Gnanapragasam, E.

2002-01-01

The deterministic multimedia dose/risk assessment codes RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD have been widely used for many years for evaluation of sites contaminated with residual radioactive materials. The RESRAD code applies to the cleanup of sites (soils) and the RESRAD-BUILD code applies to the cleanup of buildings and structures. This work describes the procedure used to enhance the deterministic RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD codes for probabilistic dose analysis. A six-step procedure was used in developing default parameter distributions and the probabilistic analysis modules. These six steps include (1) listing and categorizing parameters; (2) ranking parameters; (3) developing parameter distributions; (4) testing parameter distributionsmore » for probabilistic analysis; (5) developing probabilistic software modules; and (6) testing probabilistic modules and integrated codes. The procedures used can be applied to the development of other multimedia probabilistic codes. The probabilistic versions of RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD codes provide tools for studying the uncertainty in dose assessment caused by uncertain input parameters. The parameter distribution data collected in this work can also be applied to other multimedia assessment tasks and multimedia computer codes.« less

Adjoint-Based Climate Model Tuning: Application to the Planet Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Guokun; Köhl, Armin; Matei, Ion; Stammer, Detlef

2018-01-01

The adjoint method is used to calibrate the medium complexity climate model "Planet Simulator" through parameter estimation. Identical twin experiments demonstrate that this method can retrieve default values of the control parameters when using a long assimilation window of the order of 2 months. Chaos synchronization through nudging, required to overcome limits in the temporal assimilation window in the adjoint method, is employed successfully to reach this assimilation window length. When assimilating ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the observations of air temperature and the radiative fluxes are the most important data for adjusting the control parameters. The global mean net longwave fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere are significantly improved by tuning two model parameters controlling the absorption of clouds and water vapor. The global mean net shortwave radiation at the surface is improved by optimizing three model parameters controlling cloud optical properties. The optimized parameters improve the free model (without nudging terms) simulation in a way similar to that in the assimilation experiments. Results suggest a promising way for tuning uncertain parameters in nonlinear coupled climate models.

Toward Detection of Exoplanetary Rings via Transit Photometry: Methodology and a Possible Candidate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aizawa, Masataka; Masuda, Kento; Suto, Yasushi

The detection of a planetary ring of exoplanets remains one of the most attractive, but challenging, goals in the field of exoplanetary science. We present a methodology that implements a systematic search for exoplanetary rings via transit photometry of long-period planets. This methodology relies on a precise integration scheme that we develop to compute a transit light curve of a ringed planet. We apply the methodology to 89 long-period planet candidates from the Kepler data so as to estimate, and/or set upper limits on, the parameters of possible rings. While the majority of our samples do not have sufficient signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) to place meaningfulmore » constraints on ring parameters, we find that six systems with higher S/Ns are inconsistent with the presence of a ring larger than 1.5 times the planetary radius, assuming a grazing orbit and a tilted ring. Furthermore, we identify five preliminary candidate systems whose light curves exhibit ring-like features. After removing four false positives due to the contamination from nearby stars, we identify KIC 10403228 as a reasonable candidate for a ringed planet. A systematic parameter fit of its light curve with a ringed planet model indicates two possible solutions corresponding to a Saturn-like planet with a tilted ring. There also remain two other possible scenarios accounting for the data; a circumstellar disk and a hierarchical triple. Due to large uncertain factors, we cannot choose one specific model among the three.« less

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Systems via Multiple Indices based on Statistical Moments of Model Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Dell'Oca, A.

2017-12-01

We propose to ground sensitivity of uncertain parameters of environmental models on a set of indices based on the main (statistical) moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis, of the probability density function (pdf) of a target model output. This enables us to perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) of a model in terms of multiple statistical moments and yields a quantification of the impact of model parameters on features driving the shape of the pdf of model output. Our GSA approach includes the possibility of being coupled with the construction of a reduced complexity model that allows approximating the full model response at a reduced computational cost. We demonstrate our approach through a variety of test cases. These include a commonly used analytical benchmark, a simplified model representing pumping in a coastal aquifer, a laboratory-scale tracer experiment, and the migration of fracturing fluid through a naturally fractured reservoir (source) to reach an overlying formation (target). Our strategy allows discriminating the relative importance of model parameters to the four statistical moments considered. We also provide an appraisal of the error associated with the evaluation of our sensitivity metrics by replacing the original system model through the selected surrogate model. Our results suggest that one might need to construct a surrogate model with increasing level of accuracy depending on the statistical moment considered in the GSA. The methodological framework we propose can assist the development of analysis techniques targeted to model calibration, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.

Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Robust Model Predictive Control Algorithm with Guaranteed Resolvability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet A.; Carson, John M., III

2005-01-01

A robustly stabilizing MPC (model predictive control) algorithm for uncertain nonlinear systems is developed that guarantees the resolvability of the associated finite-horizon optimal control problem in a receding-horizon implementation. The control consists of two components; (i) feedforward, and (ii) feedback part. Feed-forward control is obtained by online solution of a finite-horizon optimal control problem for the nominal system dynamics. The feedback control policy is designed off-line based on a bound on the uncertainty in the system model. The entire controller is shown to be robustly stabilizing with a region of attraction composed of initial states for which the finite-horizon optimal control problem is feasible. The controller design for this algorithm is demonstrated on a class of systems with uncertain nonlinear terms that have norm-bounded derivatives, and derivatives in polytopes. An illustrative numerical example is also provided.

Fuzzy Adaptive Compensation Control of Uncertain Stochastic Nonlinear Systems With Actuator Failures and Input Hysteresis.

PubMed

Wang, Jianhui; Liu, Zhi; Chen, C L Philip; Zhang, Yun

2017-10-12

Hysteresis exists ubiquitously in physical actuators. Besides, actuator failures/faults may also occur in practice. Both effects would deteriorate the transient tracking performance, and even trigger instability. In this paper, we consider the problem of compensating for actuator failures and input hysteresis by proposing a fuzzy control scheme for stochastic nonlinear systems. Compared with the existing research on stochastic nonlinear uncertain systems, it is found that how to guarantee a prescribed transient tracking performance when taking into account actuator failures and hysteresis simultaneously also remains to be answered. Our proposed control scheme is designed on the basis of the fuzzy logic system and backstepping techniques for this purpose. It is proven that all the signals remain bounded and the tracking error is ensured to be within a preestablished bound with the failures of hysteretic actuator. Finally, simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.

Continuous higher-order sliding mode control with time-varying gain for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Han, Yaozhen; Liu, Xiangjie

2016-05-01

This paper presents a continuous higher-order sliding mode (HOSM) control scheme with time-varying gain for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. The proposed controller is derived from the concept of geometric homogeneity and super-twisting algorithm, and includes two parts, the first part of which achieves smooth finite time stabilization of pure integrator chains. The second part conquers the twice differentiable uncertainty and realizes system robustness by employing super-twisting algorithm. Particularly, time-varying switching control gain is constructed to reduce the switching control action magnitude to the minimum possible value while keeping the property of finite time convergence. Examples concerning the perturbed triple integrator chains and excitation control for single-machine infinite bus power system are simulated respectively to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Output-Feedback Neural Control of Switched Uncertain Nonlinear Systems With Average Dwell Time.

PubMed

Long, Lijun; Zhao, Jun

2015-07-01

This paper investigates the problem of adaptive neural tracking control via output-feedback for a class of switched uncertain nonlinear systems without the measurements of the system states. The unknown control signals are approximated directly by neural networks. A novel adaptive neural control technique for the problem studied is set up by exploiting the average dwell time method and backstepping. A switched filter and different update laws are designed to reduce the conservativeness caused by adoption of a common observer and a common update law for all subsystems. The proposed controllers of subsystems guarantee that all closed-loop signals remain bounded under a class of switching signals with average dwell time, while the output tracking error converges to a small neighborhood of the origin. As an application of the proposed design method, adaptive output feedback neural tracking controllers for a mass-spring-damper system are constructed.

Simulation, identification and statistical variation in cardiovascular analysis (SISCA) - A software framework for multi-compartment lumped modeling.

PubMed

Huttary, Rudolf; Goubergrits, Leonid; Schütte, Christof; Bernhard, Stefan

2017-08-01

It has not yet been possible to obtain modeling approaches suitable for covering a wide range of real world scenarios in cardiovascular physiology because many of the system parameters are uncertain or even unknown. Natural variability and statistical variation of cardiovascular system parameters in healthy and diseased conditions are characteristic features for understanding cardiovascular diseases in more detail. This paper presents SISCA, a novel software framework for cardiovascular system modeling and its MATLAB implementation. The framework defines a multi-model statistical ensemble approach for dimension reduced, multi-compartment models and focuses on statistical variation, system identification and patient-specific simulation based on clinical data. We also discuss a data-driven modeling scenario as a use case example. The regarded dataset originated from routine clinical examinations and comprised typical pre and post surgery clinical data from a patient diagnosed with coarctation of aorta. We conducted patient and disease specific pre/post surgery modeling by adapting a validated nominal multi-compartment model with respect to structure and parametrization using metadata and MRI geometry. In both models, the simulation reproduced measured pressures and flows fairly well with respect to stenosis and stent treatment and by pre-treatment cross stenosis phase shift of the pulse wave. However, with post-treatment data showing unrealistic phase shifts and other more obvious inconsistencies within the dataset, the methods and results we present suggest that conditioning and uncertainty management of routine clinical data sets needs significantly more attention to obtain reasonable results in patient-specific cardiovascular modeling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How uncertain is model-based prediction of copper loads in stormwater runoff?

PubMed

Lindblom, E; Ahlman, S; Mikkelsen, P S

2007-01-01

In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of the uncertainty related with estimating the total load of pollution (copper) from a separate stormwater drainage system, conditioned on a specific combination of input data, a dynamic conceptual pollutant accumulation-washout model and measurements (runoff volumes and pollutant masses). We use the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology and generate posterior parameter distributions that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the highly variable measurements. Given the applied pollution accumulation-washout model and a total of 57 measurements during one month, the total predicted copper masses can be predicted within a range of +/-50% of the median value. The message is that this relatively large uncertainty should be acknowledged in connection with posting statements about micropollutant loads as estimated from dynamic models, even when calibrated with on-site concentration data.

Figures of Merit for Control Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Goesu. Daniel P.

2008-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating a controller's ability to satisfy a set of closed-loop specifications when the plant has an arbitrary functional dependency on uncertain parameters. Control verification metrics applicable to deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty models are proposed. These metrics, which result from sizing the largest uncertainty set of a given class for which the specifications are satisfied, enable systematic assessment of competing control alternatives regardless of the methods used to derive them. A particularly attractive feature of the tools derived is that their efficiency and accuracy do not depend on the robustness of the controller. This is in sharp contrast to Monte Carlo based methods where the number of simulations required to accurately approximate the failure probability grows exponentially with its closeness to zero. This framework allows for the integration of complex, high-fidelity simulations of the integrated system and only requires standard optimization algorithms for its implementation.

Experimental Robot Position Sensor Fault Tolerance Using Accelerometers and Joint Torque Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aldridge, Hal A.; Juang, Jer-Nan

1997-01-01

Robot systems in critical applications, such as those in space and nuclear environments, must be able to operate during component failure to complete important tasks. One failure mode that has received little attention is the failure of joint position sensors. Current fault tolerant designs require the addition of directly redundant position sensors which can affect joint design. The proposed method uses joint torque sensors found in most existing advanced robot designs along with easily locatable, lightweight accelerometers to provide a joint position sensor fault recovery mode. This mode uses the torque sensors along with a virtual passive control law for stability and accelerometers for joint position information. Two methods for conversion from Cartesian acceleration to joint position based on robot kinematics, not integration, are presented. The fault tolerant control method was tested on several joints of a laboratory robot. The controllers performed well with noisy, biased data and a model with uncertain parameters.

Optimal coordination and control of posture and movements.

PubMed

Johansson, Rolf; Fransson, Per-Anders; Magnusson, Måns

2009-01-01

This paper presents a theoretical model of stability and coordination of posture and locomotion, together with algorithms for continuous-time quadratic optimization of motion control. Explicit solutions to the Hamilton-Jacobi equation for optimal control of rigid-body motion are obtained by solving an algebraic matrix equation. The stability is investigated with Lyapunov function theory and it is shown that global asymptotic stability holds. It is also shown how optimal control and adaptive control may act in concert in the case of unknown or uncertain system parameters. The solution describes motion strategies of minimum effort and variance. The proposed optimal control is formulated to be suitable as a posture and movement model for experimental validation and verification. The combination of adaptive and optimal control makes this algorithm a candidate for coordination and control of functional neuromuscular stimulation as well as of prostheses. Validation examples with experimental data are provided.

A queuing-theory-based interval-fuzzy robust two-stage programming model for environmental management under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.

2012-06-01

In this study, a queuing-theory-based interval-fuzzy robust two-stage programming (QB-IRTP) model is developed through introducing queuing theory into an interval-fuzzy robust two-stage (IRTP) optimization framework. The developed QB-IRTP model can not only address highly uncertain information for the lower and upper bounds of interval parameters but also be used for analysing a variety of policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. Moreover, it can reflect uncertainties in queuing theory problems. The developed method has been applied to a case of long-term municipal solid waste (MSW) management planning. Interval solutions associated with different waste-generation rates, different waiting costs and different arriving rates have been obtained. They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help managers to identify desired MSW management policies under various economic objectives and system reliability constraints.

Passive runaway electron suppression in tokamak disruptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, H. M.; Helander, P.; Boozer, A. H.

2013-07-15

Runaway electrons created in disruptions pose a serious problem for tokamaks with large current. It would be desirable to have a runaway electron suppression method which is passive, i.e., a method that does not rely on an uncertain disruption prediction system. One option is to let the large electric field inherent in the disruption drive helical currents in the wall. This would create ergodic regions in the plasma and increase the runaway losses. Whether these regions appear at a suitable time and place to affect the formation of the runaway beam depends on disruption parameters, such as electron temperature andmore » density. We find that it is difficult to ergodize the central plasma before a beam of runaway current has formed. However, the ergodic outer region will make the Ohmic current profile contract, which can lead to instabilities that yield large runaway electron losses.« less

Modeling Day-to-day Flow Dynamics on Degradable Transport Network

PubMed Central

Gao, Bo; Zhang, Ronghui; Lou, Xiaoming

2016-01-01

Stochastic link capacity degradations are common phenomena in transport network which can cause travel time variations and further can affect travelers’ daily route choice behaviors. This paper formulates a deterministic dynamic model, to capture the day-to-day (DTD) flow evolution process in the presence of degraded link capacity degradations. The aggregated network flow dynamics are driven by travelers’ study of uncertain travel time and their choice of risky routes. This paper applies the exponential-smoothing filter to describe travelers’ study of travel time variations, and meanwhile formulates risk attitude parameter updating equation to reflect travelers’ endogenous risk attitude evolution schema. In addition, this paper conducts theoretical analyses to investigate several significant mathematical characteristics implied in the proposed DTD model, including fixed point existence, uniqueness, stability and irreversibility. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the DTD model and verify some important dynamic system properties. PMID:27959903

Application of lab derived kinetic biodegradation parameters at the field scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schirmer, M.; Barker, J. F.; Butler, B. J.; Frind, E. O.

2003-04-01

Estimating the intrinsic remediation potential of an aquifer typically requires the accurate assessment of the biodegradation kinetics, the level of available electron acceptors and the flow field. Zero- and first-order degradation rates derived at the laboratory scale generally overpredict the rate of biodegradation when applied to the field scale, because limited electron acceptor availability and microbial growth are typically not considered. On the other hand, field estimated zero- and first-order rates are often not suitable to forecast plume development because they may be an oversimplification of the processes at the field scale and ignore several key processes, phenomena and characteristics of the aquifer. This study uses the numerical model BIO3D to link the laboratory and field scale by applying laboratory derived Monod kinetic degradation parameters to simulate a dissolved gasoline field experiment at Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Borden. All additional input parameters were derived from laboratory and field measurements or taken from the literature. The simulated results match the experimental results reasonably well without having to calibrate the model. An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to estimate the influence of the most uncertain input parameters and to define the key controlling factors at the field scale. It is shown that the most uncertain input parameters have only a minor influence on the simulation results. Furthermore it is shown that the flow field, the amount of electron acceptor (oxygen) available and the Monod kinetic parameters have a significant influence on the simulated results. Under the field conditions modelled and the assumptions made for the simulations, it can be concluded that laboratory derived Monod kinetic parameters can adequately describe field scale degradation processes, if all controlling factors are incorporated in the field scale modelling that are not necessarily observed at the lab scale. In this way, there are no scale relationships to be found that link the laboratory and the field scale, accurately incorporating the additional processes, phenomena and characteristics, such as a) advective and dispersive transport of one or more contaminants, b) advective and dispersive transport and availability of electron acceptors, c) mass transfer limitations and d) spatial heterogeneities, at the larger scale and applying well defined lab scale parameters should accurately describe field scale processes.