Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler for generating spatially correlated random fields using nonmatching meshes: Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler using nonmatching meshes

DOE PAGES

Osborn, Sarah; Zulian, Patrick; Benson, Thomas; ...

2018-01-30

This work describes a domain embedding technique between two nonmatching meshes used for generating realizations of spatially correlated random fields with applications to large-scale sampling-based uncertainty quantification. The goal is to apply the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the quantification of output uncertainties of PDEs with random input coefficients on general and unstructured computational domains. We propose a highly scalable, hierarchical sampling method to generate realizations of a Gaussian random field on a given unstructured mesh by solving a reaction–diffusion PDE with a stochastic right-hand side. The stochastic PDE is discretized using the mixed finite element method on anmore » embedded domain with a structured mesh, and then, the solution is projected onto the unstructured mesh. This work describes implementation details on how to efficiently transfer data from the structured and unstructured meshes at coarse levels, assuming that this can be done efficiently on the finest level. We investigate the efficiency and parallel scalability of the technique for the scalable generation of Gaussian random fields in three dimensions. An application of the MLMC method is presented for quantifying uncertainties of subsurface flow problems. Here, we demonstrate the scalability of the sampling method with nonmatching mesh embedding, coupled with a parallel forward model problem solver, for large-scale 3D MLMC simulations with up to 1.9·109 unknowns.« less

Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler for generating spatially correlated random fields using nonmatching meshes: Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler using nonmatching meshes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Osborn, Sarah; Zulian, Patrick; Benson, Thomas

This work describes a domain embedding technique between two nonmatching meshes used for generating realizations of spatially correlated random fields with applications to large-scale sampling-based uncertainty quantification. The goal is to apply the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the quantification of output uncertainties of PDEs with random input coefficients on general and unstructured computational domains. We propose a highly scalable, hierarchical sampling method to generate realizations of a Gaussian random field on a given unstructured mesh by solving a reaction–diffusion PDE with a stochastic right-hand side. The stochastic PDE is discretized using the mixed finite element method on anmore » embedded domain with a structured mesh, and then, the solution is projected onto the unstructured mesh. This work describes implementation details on how to efficiently transfer data from the structured and unstructured meshes at coarse levels, assuming that this can be done efficiently on the finest level. We investigate the efficiency and parallel scalability of the technique for the scalable generation of Gaussian random fields in three dimensions. An application of the MLMC method is presented for quantifying uncertainties of subsurface flow problems. Here, we demonstrate the scalability of the sampling method with nonmatching mesh embedding, coupled with a parallel forward model problem solver, for large-scale 3D MLMC simulations with up to 1.9·109 unknowns.« less

Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merchant, C. J.

2017-12-01

How to derive and present uncertainty in climate data records (CDRs) has been debated within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, in search of common principles applicable across a range of essential climate variables. Various points of consensus have been reached, including the importance of improving provision of uncertainty information and the benefit of adopting international norms of metrology for language around the distinct concepts of uncertainty and error. Providing an estimate of standard uncertainty per datum (or the means to readily calculate it) emerged as baseline good practice, and should be highly relevant to users of CDRs when the uncertainty in data is variable (the usual case). Given this baseline, the role of quality flags is clarified as being complementary to and not repetitive of uncertainty information. Data with high uncertainty are not poor quality if a valid estimate of the uncertainty is available. For CDRs and their applications, the error correlation properties across spatio-temporal scales present important challenges that are not fully solved. Error effects that are negligible in the uncertainty of a single pixel may dominate uncertainty in the large-scale and long-term. A further principle is that uncertainty estimates should themselves be validated. The concepts of estimating and propagating uncertainty are generally acknowledged in geophysical sciences, but less widely practised in Earth observation and development of CDRs. Uncertainty in a CDR depends in part (and usually significantly) on the error covariance of the radiances and auxiliary data used in the retrieval. Typically, error covariance information is not available in the fundamental CDR (FCDR) (i.e., with the level-1 radiances), since provision of adequate level-1 uncertainty information is not yet standard practice. Those deriving CDRs thus cannot propagate the radiance uncertainty to their geophysical products. The FIDUCEO project (www.fiduceo.eu) is demonstrating metrologically sound methodologies addressing this problem for four key historical CDRs. FIDUCEO methods of uncertainty analysis (which also tend to lead to improved FCDRs and CDRs) could support coherent treatment of uncertainty across FCDRs to CDRs and higher level products for a wide range of essential climate variables.

Analogy as a strategy for supporting complex problem solving under uncertainty.

PubMed

Chan, Joel; Paletz, Susannah B F; Schunn, Christian D

2012-11-01

Complex problem solving in naturalistic environments is fraught with uncertainty, which has significant impacts on problem-solving behavior. Thus, theories of human problem solving should include accounts of the cognitive strategies people bring to bear to deal with uncertainty during problem solving. In this article, we present evidence that analogy is one such strategy. Using statistical analyses of the temporal dynamics between analogy and expressed uncertainty in the naturalistic problem-solving conversations among scientists on the Mars Rover Mission, we show that spikes in expressed uncertainty reliably predict analogy use (Study 1) and that expressed uncertainty reduces to baseline levels following analogy use (Study 2). In addition, in Study 3, we show with qualitative analyses that this relationship between uncertainty and analogy is not due to miscommunication-related uncertainty but, rather, is primarily concentrated on substantive problem-solving issues. Finally, we discuss a hypothesis about how analogy might serve as an uncertainty reduction strategy in naturalistic complex problem solving.

Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R.

Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less

Finite difference and Runge-Kutta methods for solving vibration problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintang Renganis Radityani, Scolastika; Mungkasi, Sudi

2017-11-01

The vibration of a storey building can be modelled into a system of second order ordinary differential equations. If the number of floors of a building is large, then the result is a large scale system of second order ordinary differential equations. The large scale system is difficult to solve, and if it can be solved, the solution may not be accurate. Therefore, in this paper, we seek for accurate methods for solving vibration problems. We compare the performance of numerical finite difference and Runge-Kutta methods for solving large scale systems of second order ordinary differential equations. The finite difference methods include the forward and central differences. The Runge-Kutta methods include the Euler and Heun methods. Our research results show that the central finite difference and the Heun methods produce more accurate solutions than the forward finite difference and the Euler methods do.

Solving large-scale fixed cost integer linear programming models for grid-based location problems with heuristic techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noor-E-Alam, Md.; Doucette, John

2015-08-01

Grid-based location problems (GBLPs) can be used to solve location problems in business, engineering, resource exploitation, and even in the field of medical sciences. To solve these decision problems, an integer linear programming (ILP) model is designed and developed to provide the optimal solution for GBLPs considering fixed cost criteria. Preliminary results show that the ILP model is efficient in solving small to moderate-sized problems. However, this ILP model becomes intractable in solving large-scale instances. Therefore, a decomposition heuristic is proposed to solve these large-scale GBLPs, which demonstrates significant reduction of solution runtimes. To benchmark the proposed heuristic, results are compared with the exact solution via ILP. The experimental results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms the exact method in runtime with minimal (and in most cases, no) loss of optimality.

Network planning under uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai

2008-11-01

One of the main focuses for network planning is on the optimization of network resources required to build a network under certain traffic demand projection. Traditionally, the inputs to this type of network planning problems are treated as deterministic. In reality, the varying traffic requirements and fluctuations in network resources can cause uncertainties in the decision models. The failure to include the uncertainties in the network design process can severely affect the feasibility and economics of the network. Therefore, it is essential to find a solution that can be insensitive to the uncertain conditions during the network planning process. As early as in the 1960's, a network planning problem with varying traffic requirements over time had been studied. Up to now, this kind of network planning problems is still being active researched, especially for the VPN network design. Another kind of network planning problems under uncertainties that has been studied actively in the past decade addresses the fluctuations in network resources. One such hotly pursued research topic is survivable network planning. It considers the design of a network under uncertainties brought by the fluctuations in topology to meet the requirement that the network remains intact up to a certain number of faults occurring anywhere in the network. Recently, the authors proposed a new planning methodology called Generalized Survivable Network that tackles the network design problem under both varying traffic requirements and fluctuations of topology. Although all the above network planning problems handle various kinds of uncertainties, it is hard to find a generic framework under more general uncertainty conditions that allows a more systematic way to solve the problems. With a unified framework, the seemingly diverse models and algorithms can be intimately related and possibly more insights and improvements can be brought out for solving the problem. This motivates us to seek a generic framework for solving the network planning problem under uncertainties. In addition to reviewing the various network planning problems involving uncertainties, we also propose that a unified framework based on robust optimization can be used to solve a rather large segment of network planning problem under uncertainties. Robust optimization is first introduced in the operations research literature and is a framework that incorporates information about the uncertainty sets for the parameters in the optimization model. Even though robust optimization is originated from tackling the uncertainty in the optimization process, it can serve as a comprehensive and suitable framework for tackling generic network planning problems under uncertainties. In this paper, we begin by explaining the main ideas behind the robust optimization approach. Then we demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework by giving out some examples of how the robust optimization framework can be applied to the current common network planning problems under uncertain environments. Next, we list some practical considerations for solving the network planning problem under uncertainties with the proposed framework. Finally, we conclude this article with some thoughts on the future directions for applying this framework to solve other network planning problems.

Numerical Upscaling of Solute Transport in Fractured Porous Media Based on Flow Aligned Blocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leube, P.; Nowak, W.; Sanchez-Vila, X.

2013-12-01

High-contrast or fractured-porous media (FPM) pose one of the largest unresolved challenges for simulating large hydrogeological systems. The high contrast in advective transport between fast conduits and low-permeability rock matrix, including complex mass transfer processes, leads to the typical complex characteristics of early bulk arrivals and long tailings. Adequate direct representation of FPM requires enormous numerical resolutions. For large scales, e.g. the catchment scale, and when allowing for uncertainty in the fracture network architecture or in matrix properties, computational costs quickly reach an intractable level. In such cases, multi-scale simulation techniques have become useful tools. They allow decreasing the complexity of models by aggregating and transferring their parameters to coarser scales and so drastically reduce the computational costs. However, these advantages come at a loss of detail and accuracy. In this work, we develop and test a new multi-scale or upscaled modeling approach based on block upscaling. The novelty is that individual blocks are defined by and aligned with the local flow coordinates. We choose a multi-rate mass transfer (MRMT) model to represent the remaining sub-block non-Fickian behavior within these blocks on the coarse scale. To make the scale transition simple and to save computational costs, we capture sub-block features by temporal moments (TM) of block-wise particle arrival times to be matched with the MRMT model. By predicting spatial mass distributions of injected tracers in a synthetic test scenario, our coarse-scale solution matches reasonably well with the corresponding fine-scale reference solution. For predicting higher TM-orders (such as arrival time and effective dispersion), the prediction accuracy steadily decreases. This is compensated to some extent by the MRMT model. If the MRMT model becomes too complex, it loses its effect. We also found that prediction accuracy is sensitive to the choice of the effective dispersion coefficients and on the block resolution. A key advantage of the flow-aligned blocks is that the small-scale velocity field is reproduced quite accurately on the block-scale through their flow alignment. Thus, the block-scale transverse dispersivities remain in the similar magnitude as local ones, and they do not have to represent macroscopic uncertainty. Also, the flow-aligned blocks minimize numerical dispersion when solving the large-scale transport problem.

A dynamic programming-based particle swarm optimization algorithm for an inventory management problem under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Zeng, Ziqiang; Han, Bernard; Lei, Xiao

2013-07-01

This article presents a dynamic programming-based particle swarm optimization (DP-based PSO) algorithm for solving an inventory management problem for large-scale construction projects under a fuzzy random environment. By taking into account the purchasing behaviour and strategy under rules of international bidding, a multi-objective fuzzy random dynamic programming model is constructed. To deal with the uncertainties, a hybrid crisp approach is used to transform fuzzy random parameters into fuzzy variables that are subsequently defuzzified by using an expected value operator with optimistic-pessimistic index. The iterative nature of the authors' model motivates them to develop a DP-based PSO algorithm. More specifically, their approach treats the state variables as hidden parameters. This in turn eliminates many redundant feasibility checks during initialization and particle updates at each iteration. Results and sensitivity analysis are presented to highlight the performance of the authors' optimization method, which is very effective as compared to the standard PSO algorithm.

A family of conjugate gradient methods for large-scale nonlinear equations.

PubMed

Feng, Dexiang; Sun, Min; Wang, Xueyong

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present a family of conjugate gradient projection methods for solving large-scale nonlinear equations. At each iteration, it needs low storage and the subproblem can be easily solved. Compared with the existing solution methods for solving the problem, its global convergence is established without the restriction of the Lipschitz continuity on the underlying mapping. Preliminary numerical results are reported to show the efficiency of the proposed method.

The mean density and two-point correlation function for the CfA redshift survey slices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Lapparent, Valerie; Geller, Margaret J.; Huchra, John P.

1988-01-01

The effect of large-scale inhomogeneities on the determination of the mean number density and the two-point spatial correlation function were investigated for two complete slices of the extension of the Center for Astrophysics (CfA) redshift survey (de Lapparent et al., 1986). It was found that the mean galaxy number density for the two strips is uncertain by 25 percent, more so than previously estimated. The large uncertainty in the mean density introduces substantial uncertainty in the determination of the two-point correlation function, particularly at large scale; thus, for the 12-deg slice of the CfA redshift survey, the amplitude of the correlation function at intermediate scales is uncertain by a factor of 2. The large uncertainties in the correlation functions might reflect the lack of a fair sample.

From catchment scale hydrologic processes to numerical models and robust predictions of climate change impacts at regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagener, T.

2017-12-01

Current societal problems and questions demand that we increasingly build hydrologic models for regional or even continental scale assessment of global change impacts. Such models offer new opportunities for scientific advancement, for example by enabling comparative hydrology or connectivity studies, and for improved support of water management decision, since we might better understand regional impacts on water resources from large scale phenomena such as droughts. On the other hand, we are faced with epistemic uncertainties when we move up in scale. The term epistemic uncertainty describes those uncertainties that are not well determined by historical observations. This lack of determination can be because the future is not like the past (e.g. due to climate change), because the historical data is unreliable (e.g. because it is imperfectly recorded from proxies or missing), or because it is scarce (either because measurements are not available at the right scale or there is no observation network available at all). In this talk I will explore: (1) how we might build a bridge between what we have learned about catchment scale processes and hydrologic model development and evaluation at larger scales. (2) How we can understand the impact of epistemic uncertainty in large scale hydrologic models. And (3) how we might utilize large scale hydrologic predictions to understand climate change impacts, e.g. on infectious disease risk.

3D magnetization vector inversion based on fuzzy clustering: inversion algorithm, uncertainty analysis, and application to geology differentiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, J.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

Magnetic data contain important information about the subsurface rocks that were magnetized in the geological history, which provides an important avenue to the study of the crustal heterogeneities associated with magmatic and hydrothermal activities. Interpretation of magnetic data has been widely used in mineral exploration, basement characterization and large scale crustal studies for several decades. However, interpreting magnetic data has been often complicated by the presence of remanent magnetizations with unknown magnetization directions. Researchers have developed different methods to deal with the challenges posed by remanence. We have developed a new and effective approach to inverting magnetic data for magnetization vector distributions characterized by region-wise consistency in the magnetization directions. This approach combines the classical Tikhonov inversion scheme with fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm, and constrains the estimated magnetization vectors to a specified small number of possible directions while fitting the observed magnetic data to within noise level. Our magnetization vector inversion recovers both the magnitudes and the directions of the magnetizations in the subsurface. Magnetization directions reflect the unique geological or hydrothermal processes applied to each geological unit, and therefore, can potentially be used for the purpose of differentiating various geological units. We have developed a practically convenient and effective way of assessing the uncertainty associated with the inverted magnetization directions (Figure 1), and investigated how geological differentiation results might be affected (Figure 2). The algorithm and procedures we have developed for magnetization vector inversion and uncertainty analysis open up new possibilities of extracting useful information from magnetic data affected by remanence. We will use a field data example from exploration of an iron-oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) deposit in Brazil to illustrate how to solve the inverse problem, assess uncertainty, and perform geology differentiation in practice. We will also discuss the potential applications of this new method to large scale crustal studies.

Parallel Optimization of Polynomials for Large-scale Problems in Stability and Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamyar, Reza

In this thesis, we focus on some of the NP-hard problems in control theory. Thanks to the converse Lyapunov theory, these problems can often be modeled as optimization over polynomials. To avoid the problem of intractability, we establish a trade off between accuracy and complexity. In particular, we develop a sequence of tractable optimization problems --- in the form of Linear Programs (LPs) and/or Semi-Definite Programs (SDPs) --- whose solutions converge to the exact solution of the NP-hard problem. However, the computational and memory complexity of these LPs and SDPs grow exponentially with the progress of the sequence - meaning that improving the accuracy of the solutions requires solving SDPs with tens of thousands of decision variables and constraints. Setting up and solving such problems is a significant challenge. The existing optimization algorithms and software are only designed to use desktop computers or small cluster computers --- machines which do not have sufficient memory for solving such large SDPs. Moreover, the speed-up of these algorithms does not scale beyond dozens of processors. This in fact is the reason we seek parallel algorithms for setting-up and solving large SDPs on large cluster- and/or super-computers. We propose parallel algorithms for stability analysis of two classes of systems: 1) Linear systems with a large number of uncertain parameters; 2) Nonlinear systems defined by polynomial vector fields. First, we develop a distributed parallel algorithm which applies Polya's and/or Handelman's theorems to some variants of parameter-dependent Lyapunov inequalities with parameters defined over the standard simplex. The result is a sequence of SDPs which possess a block-diagonal structure. We then develop a parallel SDP solver which exploits this structure in order to map the computation, memory and communication to a distributed parallel environment. Numerical tests on a supercomputer demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to efficiently utilize hundreds and potentially thousands of processors, and analyze systems with 100+ dimensional state-space. Furthermore, we extend our algorithms to analyze robust stability over more complicated geometries such as hypercubes and arbitrary convex polytopes. Our algorithms can be readily extended to address a wide variety of problems in control such as Hinfinity synthesis for systems with parametric uncertainty and computing control Lyapunov functions.

Radiative PQ breaking and the Higgs boson mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Eramo, Francesco; Hall, Lawrence J.; Pappadopulo, Duccio

2015-06-01

The small and negative value of the Standard Model Higgs quartic coupling at high scales can be understood in terms of anthropic selection on a landscape where large and negative values are favored: most universes have a very short-lived electroweak vacuum and typical observers are in universes close to the corresponding metastability boundary. We provide a simple example of such a landscape with a Peccei-Quinn symmetry breaking scale generated through dimensional transmutation and supersymmetry softly broken at an intermediate scale. Large and negative contributions to the Higgs quartic are typically generated on integrating out the saxion field. Cancellations among these contributions are forced by the anthropic requirement of a sufficiently long-lived electroweak vacuum, determining the multiverse distribution for the Higgs quartic in a similar way to that of the cosmological constant. This leads to a statistical prediction of the Higgs boson mass that, for a wide range of parameters, yields the observed value within the 1σ statistical uncertainty of ˜ 5 GeV originating from the multiverse distribution. The strong CP problem is solved and single-component axion dark matter is predicted, with an abundance that can be understood from environmental selection. A more general setting for the Higgs mass prediction is discussed.

Agent-Centric Approach for Cybersecurity Decision-Support with Partial Observability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Chatterjee, Samrat; Paulson, Patrick R.

Generating automated cyber resilience policies for real-world settings is a challenging research problem that must account for uncertainties in system state over time and dynamics between attackers and defenders. In addition to understanding attacker and defender motives and tools, and identifying “relevant” system and attack data, it is also critical to develop rigorous mathematical formulations representing the defender’s decision-support problem under uncertainty. Game-theoretic approaches involving cyber resource allocation optimization with Markov decision processes (MDP) have been previously proposed in the literature. Moreover, advancements in reinforcement learning approaches have motivated the development of partially observable stochastic games (POSGs) in various multi-agentmore » problem domains with partial information. Recent advances in cyber-system state space modeling have also generated interest in potential applicability of POSGs for cybersecurity. However, as is the case in strategic card games such as poker, research challenges using game-theoretic approaches for practical cyber defense applications include: 1) solving for equilibrium and designing efficient algorithms for large-scale, general problems; 2) establishing mathematical guarantees that equilibrium exists; 3) handling possible existence of multiple equilibria; and 4) exploitation of opponent weaknesses. Inspired by advances in solving strategic card games while acknowledging practical challenges associated with the use of game-theoretic approaches in cyber settings, this paper proposes an agent-centric approach for cybersecurity decision-support with partial system state observability.« less

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Mesoscale Predictability and Error Growth in Short Range Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gingrich, Mark

Although it was originally suggested that small-scale, unresolved errors corrupt forecasts at all scales through an inverse error cascade, some authors have proposed that those mesoscale circulations resulting from stationary forcing on the larger scale may inherit the predictability of the large-scale motions. Further, the relative contributions of large- and small-scale uncertainties in producing error growth in the mesoscales remain largely unknown. Here, 100 member ensemble forecasts are initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simulate two winter storms impacting the East Coast of the United States in 2010. Four verification metrics are considered: the local snow water equivalence, total liquid water, and 850 hPa temperatures representing mesoscale features; and the sea level pressure field representing a synoptic feature. It is found that while the predictability of the mesoscale features can be tied to the synoptic forecast, significant uncertainty existed on the synoptic scale at lead times as short as 18 hours. Therefore, mesoscale details remained uncertain in both storms due to uncertainties at the large scale. Additionally, the ensemble perturbation kinetic energy did not show an appreciable upscale propagation of error for either case. Instead, the initial condition perturbations from the cycling EnKF were maximized at large scales and immediately amplified at all scales without requiring initial upscale propagation. This suggests that relatively small errors in the synoptic-scale initialization may have more importance in limiting predictability than errors in the unresolved, small-scale initial conditions.

Large Eddy Simulation in the Computation of Jet Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mankbadi, R. R.; Goldstein, M. E.; Povinelli, L. A.; Hayder, M. E.; Turkel, E.

1999-01-01

Noise can be predicted by solving Full (time-dependent) Compressible Navier-Stokes Equation (FCNSE) with computational domain. The fluctuating near field of the jet produces propagating pressure waves that produce far-field sound. The fluctuating flow field as a function of time is needed in order to calculate sound from first principles. Noise can be predicted by solving the full, time-dependent, compressible Navier-Stokes equations with the computational domain extended to far field - but this is not feasible as indicated above. At high Reynolds number of technological interest turbulence has large range of scales. Direct numerical simulations (DNS) can not capture the small scales of turbulence. The large scales are more efficient than the small scales in radiating sound. The emphasize is thus on calculating sound radiated by large scales.

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

PubMed

Hemming, Debbie; Buontempo, Carlo; Burke, Eleanor; Collins, Mat; Kaye, Neil

2010-11-28

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

Uncertainty analysis on simple mass balance model to calculate critical loads for soil acidity

Treesearch

Harbin Li; Steven G. McNulty

2007-01-01

Simple mass balance equations (SMBE) of critical acid loads (CAL) in forest soil were developed to assess potential risks of air pollutants to ecosystems. However, to apply SMBE reliably at large scales, SMBE must be tested for adequacy and uncertainty. Our goal was to provide a detailed analysis of uncertainty in SMBE so that sound strategies for scaling up CAL...

Uncertainty analysis on simple mass balance model to calculate critical loads for soil acidity.

PubMed

Li, Harbin; McNulty, Steven G

2007-10-01

Simple mass balance equations (SMBE) of critical acid loads (CAL) in forest soil were developed to assess potential risks of air pollutants to ecosystems. However, to apply SMBE reliably at large scales, SMBE must be tested for adequacy and uncertainty. Our goal was to provide a detailed analysis of uncertainty in SMBE so that sound strategies for scaling up CAL estimates to the national scale could be developed. Specifically, we wanted to quantify CAL uncertainty under natural variability in 17 model parameters, and determine their relative contributions in predicting CAL. Results indicated that uncertainty in CAL came primarily from components of base cation weathering (BC(w); 49%) and acid neutralizing capacity (46%), whereas the most critical parameters were BC(w) base rate (62%), soil depth (20%), and soil temperature (11%). Thus, improvements in estimates of these factors are crucial to reducing uncertainty and successfully scaling up SMBE for national assessments of CAL.

Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

Planning of distributed generation in distribution network based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jinze; Qu, Zhi; He, Xiaoyang; Jin, Xiaoming; Li, Tie; Wang, Mingkai; Han, Qiu; Gao, Ziji; Jiang, Feng

2018-02-01

Large-scale access of distributed power can improve the current environmental pressure, at the same time, increasing the complexity and uncertainty of overall distribution system. Rational planning of distributed power can effectively improve the system voltage level. To this point, the specific impact on distribution network power quality caused by the access of typical distributed power was analyzed and from the point of improving the learning factor and the inertia weight, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm (IPSO) was proposed which could solve distributed generation planning for distribution network to improve the local and global search performance of the algorithm. Results show that the proposed method can well reduce the system network loss and improve the economic performance of system operation with distributed generation.

Quantifying aggregated uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence and populations at risk via efficient space-time geostatistical joint simulation.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Hay, Simon I

2010-04-01

Risk maps estimating the spatial distribution of infectious diseases are required to guide public health policy from local to global scales. The advent of model-based geostatistics (MBG) has allowed these maps to be generated in a formal statistical framework, providing robust metrics of map uncertainty that enhances their utility for decision-makers. In many settings, decision-makers require spatially aggregated measures over large regions such as the mean prevalence within a country or administrative region, or national populations living under different levels of risk. Existing MBG mapping approaches provide suitable metrics of local uncertainty--the fidelity of predictions at each mapped pixel--but have not been adapted for measuring uncertainty over large areas, due largely to a series of fundamental computational constraints. Here the authors present a new efficient approximating algorithm that can generate for the first time the necessary joint simulation of prevalence values across the very large prediction spaces needed for global scale mapping. This new approach is implemented in conjunction with an established model for P. falciparum allowing robust estimates of mean prevalence at any specified level of spatial aggregation. The model is used to provide estimates of national populations at risk under three policy-relevant prevalence thresholds, along with accompanying model-based measures of uncertainty. By overcoming previously unchallenged computational barriers, this study illustrates how MBG approaches, already at the forefront of infectious disease mapping, can be extended to provide large-scale aggregate measures appropriate for decision-makers.

Managing Risk and Uncertainty in Large-Scale University Research Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Sharlissa; Shangraw, R. F., Jr.

2011-01-01

Both publicly and privately funded research projects managed by universities are growing in size and scope. Complex, large-scale projects (over $50 million) pose new management challenges and risks for universities. This paper explores the relationship between project success and a variety of factors in large-scale university projects. First, we…

Data-based discharge extrapolation: estimating annual discharge for a partially gauged large river basin from its small sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.

2013-12-01

Large-scale hydrological models and land surface models are by far the only tools for accessing future water resources in climate change impact studies. Those models estimate discharge with large uncertainties, due to the complex interaction between climate and hydrology, the limited quality and availability of data, as well as model uncertainties. A new purely data-based scale-extrapolation method is proposed, to estimate water resources for a large basin solely from selected small sub-basins, which are typically two-orders-of-magnitude smaller than the large basin. Those small sub-basins contain sufficient information, not only on climate and land surface, but also on hydrological characteristics for the large basin In the Baltic Sea drainage basin, best discharge estimation for the gauged area was achieved with sub-basins that cover 2-4% of the gauged area. There exist multiple sets of sub-basins that resemble the climate and hydrology of the basin equally well. Those multiple sets estimate annual discharge for gauged area consistently well with 5% average error. The scale-extrapolation method is completely data-based; therefore it does not force any modelling error into the prediction. The multiple predictions are expected to bracket the inherent variations and uncertainties of the climate and hydrology of the basin. The method can be applied in both un-gauged basins and un-gauged periods with uncertainty estimation.

Scale-invariant instantons and the complete lifetime of the standard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreassen, Anders; Frost, William; Schwartz, Matthew D.

2018-03-01

In a classically scale-invariant quantum field theory, tunneling rates are infrared divergent due to the existence of instantons of any size. While one expects such divergences to be resolved by quantum effects, it has been unclear how higher-loop corrections can resolve a problem appearing already at one loop. With a careful power counting, we uncover a series of loop contributions that dominate over the one-loop result and sum all the necessary terms. We also clarify previously incomplete treatments of related issues pertaining to global symmetries, gauge fixing, and finite mass effects. In addition, we produce exact closed-form solutions for the functional determinants over scalars, fermions, and vector bosons around the scale-invariant bounce, demonstrating manifest gauge invariance in the vector case. With these problems solved, we produce the first complete calculation of the lifetime of our Universe: 1 0139 years . With 95% confidence, we expect our Universe to last more than 1 058 years . The uncertainty is part experimental uncertainty on the top quark mass and on αs and part theory uncertainty from electroweak threshold corrections. Using our complete result, we provide phase diagrams in the mt/mh and the mt/αs planes, with uncertainty bands. To rule out absolute stability to 3 σ confidence, the uncertainty on the top quark pole mass would have to be pushed below 250 MeV or the uncertainty on αs(mZ) pushed below 0.00025.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.

Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity ( ω 500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strongmore » large-scale ascent ( ω 500  <  −25 hPa day −1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day −1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

A novel artificial fish swarm algorithm for solving large-scale reliability-redundancy application problem.

PubMed

He, Qiang; Hu, Xiangtao; Ren, Hong; Zhang, Hongqi

2015-11-01

A novel artificial fish swarm algorithm (NAFSA) is proposed for solving large-scale reliability-redundancy allocation problem (RAP). In NAFSA, the social behaviors of fish swarm are classified in three ways: foraging behavior, reproductive behavior, and random behavior. The foraging behavior designs two position-updating strategies. And, the selection and crossover operators are applied to define the reproductive ability of an artificial fish. For the random behavior, which is essentially a mutation strategy, the basic cloud generator is used as the mutation operator. Finally, numerical results of four benchmark problems and a large-scale RAP are reported and compared. NAFSA shows good performance in terms of computational accuracy and computational efficiency for large scale RAP. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimates of CO2 fluxes over the city of Cape Town, South Africa, through Bayesian inverse modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickless, Alecia; Rayner, Peter J.; Engelbrecht, Francois; Brunke, Ernst-Günther; Erni, Birgit; Scholes, Robert J.

2018-04-01

We present a city-scale inversion over Cape Town, South Africa. Measurement sites for atmospheric CO2 concentrations were installed at Robben Island and Hangklip lighthouses, located downwind and upwind of the metropolis. Prior estimates of the fossil fuel fluxes were obtained from a bespoke inventory analysis where emissions were spatially and temporally disaggregated and uncertainty estimates determined by means of error propagation techniques. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes from biogenic processes were obtained from the land atmosphere exchange model CABLE (Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange). Uncertainty estimates were based on the estimates of net primary productivity. CABLE was dynamically coupled to the regional climate model CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model), which provided the climate inputs required to drive the Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The Bayesian inversion framework included a control vector where fossil fuel and NEE fluxes were solved for separately.Due to the large prior uncertainty prescribed to the NEE fluxes, the current inversion framework was unable to adequately distinguish between the fossil fuel and NEE fluxes, but the inversion was able to obtain improved estimates of the total fluxes within pixels and across the domain. The median of the uncertainty reductions of the total weekly flux estimates for the inversion domain of Cape Town was 28 %, but reach as high as 50 %. At the pixel level, uncertainty reductions of the total weekly flux reached up to 98 %, but these large uncertainty reductions were for NEE-dominated pixels. Improved corrections to the fossil fuel fluxes would be possible if the uncertainty around the prior NEE fluxes could be reduced. In order for this inversion framework to be operationalised for monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of emissions from Cape Town, the NEE component of the CO2 budget needs to be better understood. Additional measurements of Δ14C and δ13C isotope measurements would be a beneficial component of an atmospheric monitoring programme aimed at MRV of CO2 for any city which has significant biogenic influence, allowing improved separation of contributions from NEE and fossil fuel fluxes to the observed CO2 concentration.

A Computationally Efficient Parallel Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm for Large-Scale Big-Data Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; O'Malley, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2015-12-01

Inverse modeling seeks model parameters given a set of observed state variables. However, for many practical problems due to the facts that the observed data sets are often large and model parameters are often numerous, conventional methods for solving the inverse modeling can be computationally expensive. We have developed a new, computationally-efficient Levenberg-Marquardt method for solving large-scale inverse modeling. Levenberg-Marquardt methods require the solution of a dense linear system of equations which can be prohibitively expensive to compute for large-scale inverse problems. Our novel method projects the original large-scale linear problem down to a Krylov subspace, such that the dimensionality of the measurements can be significantly reduced. Furthermore, instead of solving the linear system for every Levenberg-Marquardt damping parameter, we store the Krylov subspace computed when solving the first damping parameter and recycle it for all the following damping parameters. The efficiency of our new inverse modeling algorithm is significantly improved by using these computational techniques. We apply this new inverse modeling method to invert for a random transitivity field. Our algorithm is fast enough to solve for the distributed model parameters (transitivity) at each computational node in the model domain. The inversion is also aided by the use regularization techniques. The algorithm is coded in Julia and implemented in the MADS computational framework (http://mads.lanl.gov). Julia is an advanced high-level scientific programing language that allows for efficient memory management and utilization of high-performance computational resources. By comparing with a Levenberg-Marquardt method using standard linear inversion techniques, our Levenberg-Marquardt method yields speed-up ratio of 15 in a multi-core computational environment and a speed-up ratio of 45 in a single-core computational environment. Therefore, our new inverse modeling method is a powerful tool for large-scale applications.

Solving geosteering inverse problems by stochastic Hybrid Monte Carlo method

DOE PAGES

Shen, Qiuyang; Wu, Xuqing; Chen, Jiefu; ...

2017-11-20

The inverse problems arise in almost all fields of science where the real-world parameters are extracted from a set of measured data. The geosteering inversion plays an essential role in the accurate prediction of oncoming strata as well as a reliable guidance to adjust the borehole position on the fly to reach one or more geological targets. This mathematical treatment is not easy to solve, which requires finding an optimum solution among a large solution space, especially when the problem is non-linear and non-convex. Nowadays, a new generation of logging-while-drilling (LWD) tools has emerged on the market. The so-called azimuthalmore » resistivity LWD tools have azimuthal sensitivity and a large depth of investigation. Hence, the associated inverse problems become much more difficult since the earth model to be inverted will have more detailed structures. The conventional deterministic methods are incapable to solve such a complicated inverse problem, where they suffer from the local minimum trap. Alternatively, stochastic optimizations are in general better at finding global optimal solutions and handling uncertainty quantification. In this article, we investigate the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) based statistical inversion approach and suggest that HMC based inference is more efficient in dealing with the increased complexity and uncertainty faced by the geosteering problems.« less

A geostatistical approach to the change-of-support problem and variable-support data fusion in spatial analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Wang, Yang; Zeng, Hui

2016-01-01

A key issue to address in synthesizing spatial data with variable-support in spatial analysis and modeling is the change-of-support problem. We present an approach for solving the change-of-support and variable-support data fusion problems. This approach is based on geostatistical inverse modeling that explicitly accounts for differences in spatial support. The inverse model is applied here to produce both the best predictions of a target support and prediction uncertainties, based on one or more measurements, while honoring measurements. Spatial data covering large geographic areas often exhibit spatial nonstationarity and can lead to computational challenge due to the large data size. We developed a local-window geostatistical inverse modeling approach to accommodate these issues of spatial nonstationarity and alleviate computational burden. We conducted experiments using synthetic and real-world raster data. Synthetic data were generated and aggregated to multiple supports and downscaled back to the original support to analyze the accuracy of spatial predictions and the correctness of prediction uncertainties. Similar experiments were conducted for real-world raster data. Real-world data with variable-support were statistically fused to produce single-support predictions and associated uncertainties. The modeling results demonstrate that geostatistical inverse modeling can produce accurate predictions and associated prediction uncertainties. It is shown that the local-window geostatistical inverse modeling approach suggested offers a practical way to solve the well-known change-of-support problem and variable-support data fusion problem in spatial analysis and modeling.

Sparse deconvolution for the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem of impact force reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, Baijie; Zhang, Xingwu; Gao, Jiawei; Liu, Ruonan; Chen, Xuefeng

2017-01-01

Most previous regularization methods for solving the inverse problem of force reconstruction are to minimize the l2-norm of the desired force. However, these traditional regularization methods such as Tikhonov regularization and truncated singular value decomposition, commonly fail to solve the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem in moderate computational cost. In this paper, taking into account the sparse characteristic of impact force, the idea of sparse deconvolution is first introduced to the field of impact force reconstruction and a general sparse deconvolution model of impact force is constructed. Second, a novel impact force reconstruction method based on the primal-dual interior point method (PDIPM) is proposed to solve such a large-scale sparse deconvolution model, where minimizing the l2-norm is replaced by minimizing the l1-norm. Meanwhile, the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm is used to compute the search direction of PDIPM with high computational efficiency. Finally, two experiments including the small-scale or medium-scale single impact force reconstruction and the relatively large-scale consecutive impact force reconstruction are conducted on a composite wind turbine blade and a shell structure to illustrate the advantage of PDIPM. Compared with Tikhonov regularization, PDIPM is more efficient, accurate and robust whether in the single impact force reconstruction or in the consecutive impact force reconstruction.

A fresh look at Jupiter's synchrotron from the Cassini RADAR flyby

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeckel, Chris; Janssen, Michael A.; de Pater, Imke

2017-10-01

The temporal variability is one of the big remaining questions in synchrotron radiation. Most known processes affect the radiation belts on time scales of month and years, whereas variations on shorter time scales are still a subject of scientific debate. In this light, the extreme depletion of energetic electrons as revealed by the 2001 Cassini radio measurements during its flyby of Jupiter is very surprising. The obtained estimate of the ultra-relativistic electron number density is considerably lower when compared to model calculations and similar observation. It has long been suspected that the measurements suffered from large systematic uncertainties. The uncertainties were reduced by recalibrating the raw data the Cassini RADAR measurements based on an improved understanding of the instrument after a decade of operation at Titan. The uncertainties pertaining to spacecraft pointing and the Jovian thermal radiation were solved for by applying a Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo optimization to the full set of 20 Jupiter scans. The synchrotron radiation was then recovered by subtracting the thermal radiation extending from Jupiter’s upper atmosphere, which comprises up to 97% of the total signal strength in the Cassini frequency band. The excellent knowledge of the instrument allows for constraining the disk-averaged brightness temperature of 158.6K ± 2.4K and can be used to improve the calibration of radio telescope such as the Very Large Array. The new retrieval confirmed that systematic artifacts propagated into the initial analysis. The synchrotron radio flux was revised upwards to agree with model predictions of a depleted magnetosphere. Radio maps indicated an enhancement at higher latitudes of electrons, requiring processes to scatter particles to higher latitudes. Comparison with other radio maps demonstrated a positive correlation between the energy of the electrons and the scattering they experienced. This behavior is indicative of wave-particle interactions, which are known to be acting in the terrestrial van-Allen belts but have not so far been considered in the Jupiter models.

Large-scale linear programs in planning and prediction.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-01

Large-scale linear programs are at the core of many traffic-related optimization problems in both planning and prediction. Moreover, many of these involve significant uncertainty, and hence are modeled using either chance constraints, or robust optim...

North American CO2 fluxes for 2007-2015 from NOAA's CarbonTracker-Lagrange Regional Inverse Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, A. E.; Hu, L.; Thoning, K. W.; Nehrkorn, T.; Mountain, M. E.; Jacobson, A. R.; Michalak, A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Sweeney, C.; Worthy, D. E. J.; Miller, J. B.; Fischer, M. L.; Biraud, S.; van der Velde, I. R.; Basu, S.; Tans, P. P.

2017-12-01

CarbonTracker-Lagrange (CT-L) is a new high-resolution regional inverse modeling system for improved estimation of North American CO2 fluxes. CT-L uses footprints from the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by high-resolution (10 to 30 km) meteorological fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We performed a suite of synthetic-data experiments to evaluate a variety of inversion configurations, including (1) solving for scaling factors to an a priori flux versus additive corrections, (2) solving for fluxes at 3-hrly resolution versus at coarser temporal resolution, (3) solving for fluxes at 1o × 1o resolution versus at large eco-regional scales. Our framework explicitly and objectively solves for the optimal solution with a full error covariance matrix with maximum likelihood estimation, thereby enabling rigorous uncertainty estimates for the derived fluxes. In the synthetic-data inversions, we find that solving for weekly scaling factors of a priori Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) at 1o × 1o resolution with optimization of diurnal cycles of CO2 fluxes yields faithful retrieval of the specified "true" fluxes as those solved at 3-hrly resolution. In contrast, a scheme that does not allow for optimization of diurnal cycles of CO2 fluxes suffered from larger aggregation errors. We then applied the optimal inversion setup to estimate North American fluxes for 2007-2015 using real atmospheric CO2 observations, multiple prior estimates of NEE, and multiple boundary values estimated from the NOAA's global Eulerian CarbonTracker (CarbonTracker) and from an empirical approach. Our derived North American land CO2 fluxes show larger seasonal amplitude than those estimated from the CarbonTracker, removing seasonal biases in the CarbonTracker's simulated CO2 mole fractions. Independent evaluations using in-situ CO2 eddy covariance flux measurements and independent aircraft profiles also suggest an improved estimation on North American CO2 fluxes from CT-L. Furthermore, our derived CO2 flux anomalies over North America corresponding to the 2012 North American drought and the 2015 El Niño are larger than derived by the CarbonTracker. They also indicate different responses of ecosystems to those anomalous climatic events.

Limitations and tradeoffs in synchronization of large-scale networks with uncertain links

PubMed Central

Diwadkar, Amit; Vaidya, Umesh

2016-01-01

The synchronization of nonlinear systems connected over large-scale networks has gained popularity in a variety of applications, such as power grids, sensor networks, and biology. Stochastic uncertainty in the interconnections is a ubiquitous phenomenon observed in these physical and biological networks. We provide a size-independent network sufficient condition for the synchronization of scalar nonlinear systems with stochastic linear interactions over large-scale networks. This sufficient condition, expressed in terms of nonlinear dynamics, the Laplacian eigenvalues of the nominal interconnections, and the variance and location of the stochastic uncertainty, allows us to define a synchronization margin. We provide an analytical characterization of important trade-offs between the internal nonlinear dynamics, network topology, and uncertainty in synchronization. For nearest neighbour networks, the existence of an optimal number of neighbours with a maximum synchronization margin is demonstrated. An analytical formula for the optimal gain that produces the maximum synchronization margin allows us to compare the synchronization properties of various complex network topologies. PMID:27067994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, S.; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.

Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascendmore » (ω500 < -25 hPa/d) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is as large as that in stratocumulus regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascend are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. 42" It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm/d) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64% to nearly 100%). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes than that globally, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; ...

2016-03-04

Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity ( ω 500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strongmore » large-scale ascent ( ω 500  <  −25 hPa day −1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day −1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

Uncertainty in gridded CO 2 emissions estimates

DOE PAGES

Hogue, Susannah; Marland, Eric; Andres, Robert J.; ...

2016-05-19

We are interested in the spatial distribution of fossil-fuel-related emissions of CO 2 for both geochemical and geopolitical reasons, but it is important to understand the uncertainty that exists in spatially explicit emissions estimates. Working from one of the widely used gridded data sets of CO 2 emissions, we examine the elements of uncertainty, focusing on gridded data for the United States at the scale of 1° latitude by 1° longitude. Uncertainty is introduced in the magnitude of total United States emissions, the magnitude and location of large point sources, the magnitude and distribution of non-point sources, and from themore » use of proxy data to characterize emissions. For the United States, we develop estimates of the contribution of each component of uncertainty. At 1° resolution, in most grid cells, the largest contribution to uncertainty comes from how well the distribution of the proxy (in this case population density) represents the distribution of emissions. In other grid cells, the magnitude and location of large point sources make the major contribution to uncertainty. Uncertainty in population density can be important where a large gradient in population density occurs near a grid cell boundary. Uncertainty is strongly scale-dependent with uncertainty increasing as grid size decreases. In conclusion, uncertainty for our data set with 1° grid cells for the United States is typically on the order of ±150%, but this is perhaps not excessive in a data set where emissions per grid cell vary over 8 orders of magnitude.« less

Solving Large Problems Quickly: Progress in 2001-2003

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mowry, Todd C.; Colohan, Christopher B.; Brown, Angela Demke; Steffan, J. Gregory; Zhai, Antonia

2004-01-01

This document describes the progress we have made and the lessons we have learned in 2001 through 2003 under the NASA grant entitled "Solving Important Problems Faster". The long-term goal of this research is to accelerate large, irregular scientific applications which have enormous data sets and which are difficult to parallelize. To accomplish this goal, we are exploring two complementary techniques: (i) using compiler-inserted prefetching to automatically hide the I/O latency of accessing these large data sets from disk; and (ii) using thread-level data speculation to enable the optimistic parallelization of applications despite uncertainty as to whether data dependences exist between the resulting threads which would normally make them unsafe to execute in parallel. Overall, we made significant progress in 2001 through 2003, and the project has gone well.

Sequential Designs Based on Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Sparse Representation Surrogate Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Ray -Bing; Wang, Weichung; Jeff Wu, C. F.

A numerical method, called OBSM, was recently proposed which employs overcomplete basis functions to achieve sparse representations. While the method can handle non-stationary response without the need of inverting large covariance matrices, it lacks the capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach which first imposes a normal prior on the large space of linear coefficients, then applies the MCMC algorithm to generate posterior samples for predictions. From these samples, Bayesian credible intervals can then be obtained to assess prediction uncertainty. A key application for the proposed method is the efficient construction ofmore » sequential designs. Several sequential design procedures with different infill criteria are proposed based on the generated posterior samples. As a result, numerical studies show that the proposed schemes are capable of solving problems of positive point identification, optimization, and surrogate fitting.« less

Sequential Designs Based on Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Sparse Representation Surrogate Modeling

DOE PAGES

Chen, Ray -Bing; Wang, Weichung; Jeff Wu, C. F.

2017-04-12

A numerical method, called OBSM, was recently proposed which employs overcomplete basis functions to achieve sparse representations. While the method can handle non-stationary response without the need of inverting large covariance matrices, it lacks the capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach which first imposes a normal prior on the large space of linear coefficients, then applies the MCMC algorithm to generate posterior samples for predictions. From these samples, Bayesian credible intervals can then be obtained to assess prediction uncertainty. A key application for the proposed method is the efficient construction ofmore » sequential designs. Several sequential design procedures with different infill criteria are proposed based on the generated posterior samples. As a result, numerical studies show that the proposed schemes are capable of solving problems of positive point identification, optimization, and surrogate fitting.« less

A Commercialization Roadmap for Carbon-Negative Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, D.

2016-12-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) envisages the need for large-scale deployment of net-negative CO2 emissions technologies by mid-century to meet stringent climate mitigation goals and yield a net drawdown of atmospheric carbon. Yet there are few commercial deployments of BECCS outside of niche markets, creating uncertainty about commercialization pathways and sustainability impacts at scale. This uncertainty is exacerbated by the absence of a strong policy framework, such as high carbon prices and research coordination. Here, we propose a strategy for the potential commercial deployment of BECCS. This roadmap proceeds via three steps: 1) via capture and utilization of biogenic CO2 from existing bioenergy facilities, notably ethanol fermentation, 2) via thermochemical co-conversion of biomass and fossil fuels, particularly coal, and 3) via dedicated, large-scale BECCS. Although biochemical conversion is a proven first market for BECCS, this trajectory alone is unlikely to drive commercialization of BECCS at the gigatonne scale. In contrast to biochemical conversion, thermochemical conversion of coal and biomass enables large-scale production of fuels and electricity with a wide range of carbon intensities, process efficiencies and process scales. Aside from systems integration, primarily technical barriers are involved in large-scale biomass logistics, gasification and gas cleaning. Key uncertainties around large-scale BECCS deployment are not limited to commercialization pathways; rather, they include physical constraints on biomass cultivation or CO2 storage, as well as social barriers, including public acceptance of new technologies and conceptions of renewable and fossil energy, which co-conversion systems confound. Despite sustainability risks, this commercialization strategy presents a pathway where energy suppliers, manufacturers and governments could transition from laggards to leaders in climate change mitigation efforts.

Management applications of discontinuity theory

EPA Science Inventory

1.Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management...

Professional or administrative value patterns? Clinical pathways in medical problem-solving processes.

PubMed

Holmberg, Leif

2007-11-01

A health-care organization simultaneously belongs to two different institutional value patterns: a professional and an administrative value pattern. At the administrative level, medical problem-solving processes are generally perceived as the efficient application of familiar chains of activities to well-defined problems; and a low task uncertainty is therefore assumed at the work-floor level. This assumption is further reinforced through clinical pathways and other administrative guidelines. However, studies have shown that in clinical practice such administrative guidelines are often considered inadequate and difficult to implement mainly because physicians generally perceive task uncertainty to be high and that the guidelines do not cover the scope of encountered deviations. The current administrative level guidelines impose uniform structural features that meet the requirement for low task uncertainty. Within these structural constraints, physicians must organize medical problem-solving processes to meet any task uncertainty that may be encountered. Medical problem-solving processes with low task uncertainty need to be organized independently of processes with high task uncertainty. Each process must be evaluated according to different performance standards and needs to have autonomous administrative guideline models. Although clinical pathways seem appropriate when there is low task uncertainty, other kinds of guidelines are required when the task uncertainty is high.

exocartographer: Constraining surface maps orbital parameters of exoplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farr, Ben; Farr, Will M.; Cowan, Nicolas B.; Haggard, Hal M.; Robinson, Tyler

2018-05-01

exocartographer solves the exo-cartography inverse problem. This flexible forward-modeling framework, written in Python, retrieves the albedo map and spin geometry of a planet based on time-resolved photometry; it uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to extract albedo maps and planet spin and their uncertainties. Gaussian Processes use the data to fit for the characteristic length scale of the map and enforce smooth maps.

Multi-agent based control of large-scale complex systems employing distributed dynamic inference engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Daili

Increasing societal demand for automation has led to considerable efforts to control large-scale complex systems, especially in the area of autonomous intelligent control methods. The control system of a large-scale complex system needs to satisfy four system level requirements: robustness, flexibility, reusability, and scalability. Corresponding to the four system level requirements, there arise four major challenges. First, it is difficult to get accurate and complete information. Second, the system may be physically highly distributed. Third, the system evolves very quickly. Fourth, emergent global behaviors of the system can be caused by small disturbances at the component level. The Multi-Agent Based Control (MABC) method as an implementation of distributed intelligent control has been the focus of research since the 1970s, in an effort to solve the above-mentioned problems in controlling large-scale complex systems. However, to the author's best knowledge, all MABC systems for large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties are problem-specific and thus difficult to extend to other domains or larger systems. This situation is partly due to the control architecture of multiple agents being determined by agent to agent coupling and interaction mechanisms. Therefore, the research objective of this dissertation is to develop a comprehensive, generalized framework for the control system design of general large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties, with the focus on distributed control architecture design and distributed inference engine design. A Hybrid Multi-Agent Based Control (HyMABC) architecture is proposed by combining hierarchical control architecture and module control architecture with logical replication rings. First, it decomposes a complex system hierarchically; second, it combines the components in the same level as a module, and then designs common interfaces for all of the components in the same module; third, replications are made for critical agents and are organized into logical rings. This architecture maintains clear guidelines for complexity decomposition and also increases the robustness of the whole system. Multiple Sectioned Dynamic Bayesian Networks (MSDBNs) as a distributed dynamic probabilistic inference engine, can be embedded into the control architecture to handle uncertainties of general large-scale complex systems. MSDBNs decomposes a large knowledge-based system into many agents. Each agent holds its partial perspective of a large problem domain by representing its knowledge as a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). Each agent accesses local evidence from its corresponding local sensors and communicates with other agents through finite message passing. If the distributed agents can be organized into a tree structure, satisfying the running intersection property and d-sep set requirements, globally consistent inferences are achievable in a distributed way. By using different frequencies for local DBN agent belief updating and global system belief updating, it balances the communication cost with the global consistency of inferences. In this dissertation, a fully factorized Boyen-Koller (BK) approximation algorithm is used for local DBN agent belief updating, and the static Junction Forest Linkage Tree (JFLT) algorithm is used for global system belief updating. MSDBNs assume a static structure and a stable communication network for the whole system. However, for a real system, sub-Bayesian networks as nodes could be lost, and the communication network could be shut down due to partial damage in the system. Therefore, on-line and automatic MSDBNs structure formation is necessary for making robust state estimations and increasing survivability of the whole system. A Distributed Spanning Tree Optimization (DSTO) algorithm, a Distributed D-Sep Set Satisfaction (DDSSS) algorithm, and a Distributed Running Intersection Satisfaction (DRIS) algorithm are proposed in this dissertation. Combining these three distributed algorithms and a Distributed Belief Propagation (DBP) algorithm in MSDBNs makes state estimations robust to partial damage in the whole system. Combining the distributed control architecture design and the distributed inference engine design leads to a process of control system design for a general large-scale complex system. As applications of the proposed methodology, the control system design of a simplified ship chilled water system and a notional ship chilled water system have been demonstrated step by step. Simulation results not only show that the proposed methodology gives a clear guideline for control system design for general large-scale complex systems with dynamic and uncertain environment, but also indicate that the combination of MSDBNs and HyMABC can provide excellent performance for controlling general large-scale complex systems.

Controlling uncertainty: a review of human behavior in complex dynamic environments.

PubMed

Osman, Magda

2010-01-01

Complex dynamic control (CDC) tasks are a type of problem-solving environment used for examining many cognitive activities (e.g., attention, control, decision making, hypothesis testing, implicit learning, memory, monitoring, planning, and problem solving). Because of their popularity, there have been many findings from diverse domains of research (economics, engineering, ergonomics, human-computer interaction, management, psychology), but they remain largely disconnected from each other. The objective of this article is to review theoretical developments and empirical work on CDC tasks, and to introduce a novel framework (monitoring and control framework) as a tool for integrating theory and findings. The main thesis of the monitoring and control framework is that CDC tasks are characteristically uncertain environments, and subjective judgments of uncertainty guide the way in which monitoring and control behaviors attempt to reduce it. The article concludes by discussing new insights into continuing debates and future directions for research on CDC tasks.

Performance of Grey Wolf Optimizer on large scale problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Shubham; Deep, Kusum

2017-01-01

For solving nonlinear continuous problems of optimization numerous nature inspired optimization techniques are being proposed in literature which can be implemented to solve real life problems wherein the conventional techniques cannot be applied. Grey Wolf Optimizer is one of such technique which is gaining popularity since the last two years. The objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm on large scale optimization problems. The Algorithm is implemented on 5 common scalable problems appearing in literature namely Sphere, Rosenbrock, Rastrigin, Ackley and Griewank Functions. The dimensions of these problems are varied from 50 to 1000. The results indicate that Grey Wolf Optimizer is a powerful nature inspired Optimization Algorithm for large scale problems, except Rosenbrock which is a unimodal function.

Dynamic ruptures on faults of complex geometry: insights from numerical simulations, from large-scale curvature to small-scale fractal roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, T.; Gabriel, A. A.

2016-12-01

The geometry of faults is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. As buried structures being not directly observable, their complex shapes may only be inferred from surface traces, if available, or through geophysical methods, such as reflection seismology. As a consequence, most studies aiming at assessing the potential hazard of faults rely on idealized fault models, based on observable large-scale features. Yet, real faults are known to be wavy at all scales, their geometric features presenting similar statistical properties from the micro to the regional scale. The influence of roughness on the earthquake rupture process is currently a driving topic in the computational seismology community. From the numerical point of view, rough faults problems are challenging problems that require optimized codes able to run efficiently on high-performance computing infrastructure and simultaneously handle complex geometries. Physically, simulated ruptures hosted by rough faults appear to be much closer to source models inverted from observation in terms of complexity. Incorporating fault geometry on all scales may thus be crucial to model realistic earthquake source processes and to estimate more accurately seismic hazard. In this study, we use the software package SeisSol, based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, to run our numerical simulations. SeisSol allows solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem and the wave propagation problem with high-order accuracy in space and time efficiently on large-scale machines. In this study, the influence of fault roughness on dynamic rupture style (e.g. onset of supershear transition, rupture front coherence, propagation of self-healing pulses, etc) at different length scales is investigated by analyzing ruptures on faults of varying roughness spectral content. In particular, we investigate the existence of a minimum roughness length scale in terms of rupture inherent length scales below which the rupture ceases to be sensible. Finally, the effect of fault geometry on ground-motions, in the near-field, is considered. Our simulations feature a classical linear slip weakening on the fault and a viscoplastic constitutive model off the fault. The benefits of using a more elaborate fast velocity-weakening friction law will also be considered.

A three-stage birandom program for unit commitment with wind power uncertainty.

PubMed

Zhang, Na; Li, Weidong; Liu, Rao; Lv, Quan; Sun, Liang

2014-01-01

The integration of large-scale wind power adds a significant uncertainty to power system planning and operating. The wind forecast error is decreased with the forecast horizon, particularly when it is from one day to several hours ahead. Integrating intraday unit commitment (UC) adjustment process based on updated ultra-short term wind forecast information is one way to improve the dispatching results. A novel three-stage UC decision method, in which the day-ahead UC decisions are determined in the first stage, the intraday UC adjustment decisions of subfast start units are determined in the second stage, and the UC decisions of fast-start units and dispatching decisions are determined in the third stage is presented. Accordingly, a three-stage birandom UC model is presented, in which the intraday hours-ahead forecasted wind power is formulated as a birandom variable, and the intraday UC adjustment event is formulated as a birandom event. The equilibrium chance constraint is employed to ensure the reliability requirement. A birandom simulation based hybrid genetic algorithm is designed to solve the proposed model. Some computational results indicate that the proposed model provides UC decisions with lower expected total costs.

Assessing uncertainty in the turbulent upper-ocean mixed layer using an unstructured finite-element solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacheco, Luz; Smith, Katherine; Hamlington, Peter; Niemeyer, Kyle

2017-11-01

Vertical transport flux in the ocean upper mixed layer has recently been attributed to submesoscale currents, which occur at scales on the order of kilometers in the horizontal direction. These phenomena, which include fronts and mixed-layer instabilities, have been of particular interest due to the effect of turbulent mixing on nutrient transport, facilitating phytoplankton blooms. We study these phenomena using a non-hydrostatic, large eddy simulation for submesoscale currents in the ocean, developed using the extensible, open-source finite element platform FEniCs. Our model solves the standard Boussinesq Euler equations in variational form using the finite element method. FEniCs enables the use of parallel computing on modern systems for efficient computing time, and is suitable for unstructured grids where irregular topography can be considered in the future. The solver will be verified against the well-established NCAR-LES model and validated against observational data. For the verification with NCAR-LES, the velocity, pressure, and buoyancy fields are compared through a surface-wind-driven, open-ocean case. We use this model to study the impacts of uncertainties in the model parameters, such as near-surface buoyancy flux and secondary circulation, and discuss implications.

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Power oscillation suppression by robust SMES in power system with large wind power penetration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngamroo, Issarachai; Cuk Supriyadi, A. N.; Dechanupaprittha, Sanchai; Mitani, Yasunori

2009-01-01

The large penetration of wind farm into interconnected power systems may cause the severe problem of tie-line power oscillations. To suppress power oscillations, the superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) which is able to control active and reactive powers simultaneously, can be applied. On the other hand, several generating and loading conditions, variation of system parameters, etc., cause uncertainties in the system. The SMES controller designed without considering system uncertainties may fail to suppress power oscillations. To enhance the robustness of SMES controller against system uncertainties, this paper proposes a robust control design of SMES by taking system uncertainties into account. The inverse additive perturbation is applied to represent the unstructured system uncertainties and included in power system modeling. The configuration of active and reactive power controllers is the first-order lead-lag compensator with single input feedback. To tune the controller parameters, the optimization problem is formulated based on the enhancement of robust stability margin. The particle swarm optimization is used to solve the problem and achieve the controller parameters. Simulation studies in the six-area interconnected power system with wind farms confirm the robustness of the proposed SMES under various operating conditions.

A global stochastic programming approach for the optimal placement of gas detectors with nonuniform unavailabilities

DOE PAGES

Liu, Jianfeng; Laird, Carl Damon

2017-09-22

Optimal design of a gas detection systems is challenging because of the numerous sources of uncertainty, including weather and environmental conditions, leak location and characteristics, and process conditions. Rigorous CFD simulations of dispersion scenarios combined with stochastic programming techniques have been successfully applied to the problem of optimal gas detector placement; however, rigorous treatment of sensor failure and nonuniform unavailability has received less attention. To improve reliability of the design, this paper proposes a problem formulation that explicitly considers nonuniform unavailabilities and all backup detection levels. The resulting sensor placement problem is a large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem thatmore » requires a tailored solution approach for efficient solution. We have developed a multitree method which depends on iteratively solving a sequence of upper-bounding master problems and lower-bounding subproblems. The tailored global solution strategy is tested on a real data problem and the encouraging numerical results indicate that our solution framework is promising in solving sensor placement problems. This study was selected for the special issue in JLPPI from the 2016 International Symposium of the MKO Process Safety Center.« less

A global stochastic programming approach for the optimal placement of gas detectors with nonuniform unavailabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Jianfeng; Laird, Carl Damon

Optimal design of a gas detection systems is challenging because of the numerous sources of uncertainty, including weather and environmental conditions, leak location and characteristics, and process conditions. Rigorous CFD simulations of dispersion scenarios combined with stochastic programming techniques have been successfully applied to the problem of optimal gas detector placement; however, rigorous treatment of sensor failure and nonuniform unavailability has received less attention. To improve reliability of the design, this paper proposes a problem formulation that explicitly considers nonuniform unavailabilities and all backup detection levels. The resulting sensor placement problem is a large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem thatmore » requires a tailored solution approach for efficient solution. We have developed a multitree method which depends on iteratively solving a sequence of upper-bounding master problems and lower-bounding subproblems. The tailored global solution strategy is tested on a real data problem and the encouraging numerical results indicate that our solution framework is promising in solving sensor placement problems. This study was selected for the special issue in JLPPI from the 2016 International Symposium of the MKO Process Safety Center.« less

Supercomputing with TOUGH2 family codes for coupled multi-physics simulations of geologic carbon sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, H.; Nakajima, K.; Zhang, K.; Nanai, S.

2015-12-01

Powerful numerical codes that are capable of modeling complex coupled processes of physics and chemistry have been developed for predicting the fate of CO2 in reservoirs as well as its potential impacts on groundwater and subsurface environments. However, they are often computationally demanding for solving highly non-linear models in sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions. Geological heterogeneity and uncertainties further increase the challenges in modeling works. Two-phase flow simulations in heterogeneous media usually require much longer computational time than that in homogeneous media. Uncertainties in reservoir properties may necessitate stochastic simulations with multiple realizations. Recently, massively parallel supercomputers with more than thousands of processors become available in scientific and engineering communities. Such supercomputers may attract attentions from geoscientist and reservoir engineers for solving the large and non-linear models in higher resolutions within a reasonable time. However, for making it a useful tool, it is essential to tackle several practical obstacles to utilize large number of processors effectively for general-purpose reservoir simulators. We have implemented massively-parallel versions of two TOUGH2 family codes (a multi-phase flow simulator TOUGH2 and a chemically reactive transport simulator TOUGHREACT) on two different types (vector- and scalar-type) of supercomputers with a thousand to tens of thousands of processors. After completing implementation and extensive tune-up on the supercomputers, the computational performance was measured for three simulations with multi-million grid models, including a simulation of the dissolution-diffusion-convection process that requires high spatial and temporal resolutions to simulate the growth of small convective fingers of CO2-dissolved water to larger ones in a reservoir scale. The performance measurement confirmed that the both simulators exhibit excellent scalabilities showing almost linear speedup against number of processors up to over ten thousand cores. Generally this allows us to perform coupled multi-physics (THC) simulations on high resolution geologic models with multi-million grid in a practical time (e.g., less than a second per time step).

Solving Large-Scale Inverse Magnetostatic Problems using the Adjoint Method

PubMed Central

Bruckner, Florian; Abert, Claas; Wautischer, Gregor; Huber, Christian; Vogler, Christoph; Hinze, Michael; Suess, Dieter

2017-01-01

An efficient algorithm for the reconstruction of the magnetization state within magnetic components is presented. The occurring inverse magnetostatic problem is solved by means of an adjoint approach, based on the Fredkin-Koehler method for the solution of the forward problem. Due to the use of hybrid FEM-BEM coupling combined with matrix compression techniques the resulting algorithm is well suited for large-scale problems. Furthermore the reconstruction of the magnetization state within a permanent magnet as well as an optimal design application are demonstrated. PMID:28098851

Solving large scale structure in ten easy steps with COLA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tassev, Svetlin; Zaldarriaga, Matias; Eisenstein, Daniel J.

2013-06-01

We present the COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration (COLA) method: an N-body method for solving for Large Scale Structure (LSS) in a frame that is comoving with observers following trajectories calculated in Lagrangian Perturbation Theory (LPT). Unlike standard N-body methods, the COLA method can straightforwardly trade accuracy at small-scales in order to gain computational speed without sacrificing accuracy at large scales. This is especially useful for cheaply generating large ensembles of accurate mock halo catalogs required to study galaxy clustering and weak lensing, as those catalogs are essential for performing detailed error analysis for ongoing and future surveys of LSS. As an illustration, we ran a COLA-based N-body code on a box of size 100 Mpc/h with particles of mass ≈ 5 × 109Msolar/h. Running the code with only 10 timesteps was sufficient to obtain an accurate description of halo statistics down to halo masses of at least 1011Msolar/h. This is only at a modest speed penalty when compared to mocks obtained with LPT. A standard detailed N-body run is orders of magnitude slower than our COLA-based code. The speed-up we obtain with COLA is due to the fact that we calculate the large-scale dynamics exactly using LPT, while letting the N-body code solve for the small scales, without requiring it to capture exactly the internal dynamics of halos. Achieving a similar level of accuracy in halo statistics without the COLA method requires at least 3 times more timesteps than when COLA is employed.

Differential Relations between Facets of Complex Problem Solving and Students' Immigration Background

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sonnleitner, Philipp; Brunner, Martin; Keller, Ulrich; Martin, Romain

2014-01-01

Whereas the assessment of complex problem solving (CPS) has received increasing attention in the context of international large-scale assessments, its fairness in regard to students' cultural background has gone largely unexplored. On the basis of a student sample of 9th-graders (N = 299), including a representative number of immigrant students (N…

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

2012-01-19

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Engineering management of large scale systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanders, Serita; Gill, Tepper L.; Paul, Arthur S.

1989-01-01

The organization of high technology and engineering problem solving, has given rise to an emerging concept. Reasoning principles for integrating traditional engineering problem solving with system theory, management sciences, behavioral decision theory, and planning and design approaches can be incorporated into a methodological approach to solving problems with a long range perspective. Long range planning has a great potential to improve productivity by using a systematic and organized approach. Thus, efficiency and cost effectiveness are the driving forces in promoting the organization of engineering problems. Aspects of systems engineering that provide an understanding of management of large scale systems are broadly covered here. Due to the focus and application of research, other significant factors (e.g., human behavior, decision making, etc.) are not emphasized but are considered.

Uncertainty of large-area estimates of indicators of forest structural gamma diversity: A study based on national forest inventory data

Treesearch

Susanne Winter; Andreas Böck; Ronald E. McRoberts

2012-01-01

Tree diameter and height are commonly measured forest structural variables, and indicators based on them are candidates for assessing forest diversity. We conducted our study on the uncertainty of estimates for mostly large geographic scales for four indicators of forest structural gamma diversity: mean tree diameter, mean tree height, and standard deviations of tree...

Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Moran, Edward H.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Dey, Rima

2017-01-01

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

Understanding the origins of uncertainty in landscape-scale variations of emissions of nitrous oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, Alice; Haskard, Kathy; Webster, Colin; Truan, Imogen; Goulding, Keith

2014-05-01

Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas which is over 300 times more radiatively effective than carbon dioxide. In the UK, the agricultural sector is estimated to be responsible for over 80% of nitrous oxide emissions, with these emissions resulting from livestock and farmers adding nitrogen fertilizer to soils. For the purposes of reporting emissions to the IPCC, the estimates are calculated using simple models whereby readily-available national or international statistics are combined with IPCC default emission factors. The IPCC emission factor for direct emissions of nitrous oxide from soils has a very large uncertainty. This is primarily because the variability of nitrous oxide emissions in space is large and this results in uncertainty that may be regarded as sample noise. To both reduce uncertainty through improved modelling, and to communicate an understanding of this uncertainty, we must understand the origins of the variation. We analysed data on nitrous oxide emission rate and some other soil properties collected from a 7.5-km transect across contrasting land uses and parent materials in eastern England. We investigated the scale-dependence and spatial uniformity of the correlations between soil properties and emission rates from farm to landscape scale using wavelet analysis. The analysis revealed a complex pattern of scale-dependence. Emission rates were strongly correlated with a process-specific function of the water-filled pore space at the coarsest scale and nitrate at intermediate and coarsest scales. We also found significant correlations between pH and emission rates at the intermediate scales. The wavelet analysis showed that these correlations were not spatially uniform and that at certain scales changes in parent material coincided with significant changes in correlation. Our results indicate that, at the landscape scale, nitrate content and water-filled pore space are key soil properties for predicting nitrous oxide emissions and should therefore be incorporated into process models and emission factors for inventory calculations.

A novel heuristic algorithm for capacitated vehicle routing problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kır, Sena; Yazgan, Harun Reşit; Tüncel, Emre

2017-09-01

The vehicle routing problem with the capacity constraints was considered in this paper. It is quite difficult to achieve an optimal solution with traditional optimization methods by reason of the high computational complexity for large-scale problems. Consequently, new heuristic or metaheuristic approaches have been developed to solve this problem. In this paper, we constructed a new heuristic algorithm based on the tabu search and adaptive large neighborhood search (ALNS) with several specifically designed operators and features to solve the capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP). The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm was illustrated on the benchmark problems. The algorithm provides a better performance on large-scaled instances and gained advantage in terms of CPU time. In addition, we solved a real-life CVRP using the proposed algorithm and found the encouraging results by comparison with the current situation that the company is in.

Nonlinear unbiased minimum-variance filter for Mars entry autonomous navigation under large uncertainties and unknown measurement bias.

PubMed

Xiao, Mengli; Zhang, Yongbo; Fu, Huimin; Wang, Zhihua

2018-05-01

High-precision navigation algorithm is essential for the future Mars pinpoint landing mission. The unknown inputs caused by large uncertainties of atmospheric density and aerodynamic coefficients as well as unknown measurement biases may cause large estimation errors of conventional Kalman filters. This paper proposes a derivative-free version of nonlinear unbiased minimum variance filter for Mars entry navigation. This filter has been designed to solve this problem by estimating the state and unknown measurement biases simultaneously with derivative-free character, leading to a high-precision algorithm for the Mars entry navigation. IMU/radio beacons integrated navigation is introduced in the simulation, and the result shows that with or without radio blackout, our proposed filter could achieve an accurate state estimation, much better than the conventional unscented Kalman filter, showing the ability of high-precision Mars entry navigation algorithm. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New methods for state estimation and adaptive observation of environmental flow systems leveraging coordinated swarms of sensor vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bewley, Thomas

2015-11-01

Accurate long-term forecasts of the path and intensity of hurricanes are imperative to protect property and save lives. Accurate estimations and forecasts of the spread of large-scale contaminant plumes, such as those from Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima, and recent volcanic eruptions in Iceland, are essential for assessing environment impact, coordinating remediation efforts, and in certain cases moving folks out of harm's way. The challenges in estimating and forecasting such systems include: (a) environmental flow modeling, (b) high-performance real-time computing, (c) assimilating measured data into numerical simulations, and (d) acquiring in-situ data, beyond what can be measured from satellites, that is maximally relevant for reducing forecast uncertainty. This talk will focus on new techniques for addressing (c) and (d), namely, data assimilation and adaptive observation, in both hurricanes and large-scale environmental plumes. In particular, we will present a new technique for the energy-efficient coordination of swarms of sensor-laden balloons for persistent, in-situ, distributed, real-time measurement of developing hurricanes, leveraging buoyancy control only (coupled with the predictable and strongly stratified flowfield within the hurricane). Animations of these results are available at http://flowcontrol.ucsd.edu/3dhurricane.mp4 and http://flowcontrol.ucsd.edu/katrina.mp4. We also will survey our unique hybridization of the venerable Ensemble Kalman and Variational approaches to large-scale data assimilation in environmental flow systems, and how essentially the dual of this hybrid approach may be used to solve the adaptive observation problem in a uniquely effective and rigorous fashion.

Estimation of forest aboveground biomass and uncertainties by integration of field measurements, airborne LiDAR, and SAR and optical satellite data in Mexico.

PubMed

Urbazaev, Mikhail; Thiel, Christian; Cremer, Felix; Dubayah, Ralph; Migliavacca, Mirco; Reichstein, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

2018-02-21

Information on the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB) over large areas is needed for understanding and managing processes involved in the carbon cycle and supporting international policies for climate change mitigation and adaption. Furthermore, these products provide important baseline data for the development of sustainable management strategies to local stakeholders. The use of remote sensing data can provide spatially explicit information of AGB from local to global scales. In this study, we mapped national Mexican forest AGB using satellite remote sensing data and a machine learning approach. We modelled AGB using two scenarios: (1) extensive national forest inventory (NFI), and (2) airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) as reference data. Finally, we propagated uncertainties from field measurements to LiDAR-derived AGB and to the national wall-to-wall forest AGB map. The estimated AGB maps (NFI- and LiDAR-calibrated) showed similar goodness-of-fit statistics (R 2 , Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)) at three different scales compared to the independent validation data set. We observed different spatial patterns of AGB in tropical dense forests, where no or limited number of NFI data were available, with higher AGB values in the LiDAR-calibrated map. We estimated much higher uncertainties in the AGB maps based on two-stage up-scaling method (i.e., from field measurements to LiDAR and from LiDAR-based estimates to satellite imagery) compared to the traditional field to satellite up-scaling. By removing LiDAR-based AGB pixels with high uncertainties, it was possible to estimate national forest AGB with similar uncertainties as calibrated with NFI data only. Since LiDAR data can be acquired much faster and for much larger areas compared to field inventory data, LiDAR is attractive for repetitive large scale AGB mapping. In this study, we showed that two-stage up-scaling methods for AGB estimation over large areas need to be analyzed and validated with great care. The uncertainties in the LiDAR-estimated AGB propagate further in the wall-to-wall map and can be up to 150%. Thus, when a two-stage up-scaling method is applied, it is crucial to characterize the uncertainties at all stages in order to generate robust results. Considering the findings mentioned above LiDAR can be used as an extension to NFI for example for areas that are difficult or not possible to access.

A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

2015-05-01

A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

Confirmation of general relativity on large scales from weak lensing and galaxy velocities.

PubMed

Reyes, Reinabelle; Mandelbaum, Rachel; Seljak, Uros; Baldauf, Tobias; Gunn, James E; Lombriser, Lucas; Smith, Robert E

2010-03-11

Although general relativity underlies modern cosmology, its applicability on cosmological length scales has yet to be stringently tested. Such a test has recently been proposed, using a quantity, E(G), that combines measures of large-scale gravitational lensing, galaxy clustering and structure growth rate. The combination is insensitive to 'galaxy bias' (the difference between the clustering of visible galaxies and invisible dark matter) and is thus robust to the uncertainty in this parameter. Modified theories of gravity generally predict values of E(G) different from the general relativistic prediction because, in these theories, the 'gravitational slip' (the difference between the two potentials that describe perturbations in the gravitational metric) is non-zero, which leads to changes in the growth of structure and the strength of the gravitational lensing effect. Here we report that E(G) = 0.39 +/- 0.06 on length scales of tens of megaparsecs, in agreement with the general relativistic prediction of E(G) approximately 0.4. The measured value excludes a model within the tensor-vector-scalar gravity theory, which modifies both Newtonian and Einstein gravity. However, the relatively large uncertainty still permits models within f(R) theory, which is an extension of general relativity. A fivefold decrease in uncertainty is needed to rule out these models.

Confirmation of general relativity on large scales from weak lensing and galaxy velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, Reinabelle; Mandelbaum, Rachel; Seljak, Uros; Baldauf, Tobias; Gunn, James E.; Lombriser, Lucas; Smith, Robert E.

2010-03-01

Although general relativity underlies modern cosmology, its applicability on cosmological length scales has yet to be stringently tested. Such a test has recently been proposed, using a quantity, EG, that combines measures of large-scale gravitational lensing, galaxy clustering and structure growth rate. The combination is insensitive to `galaxy bias' (the difference between the clustering of visible galaxies and invisible dark matter) and is thus robust to the uncertainty in this parameter. Modified theories of gravity generally predict values of EG different from the general relativistic prediction because, in these theories, the `gravitational slip' (the difference between the two potentials that describe perturbations in the gravitational metric) is non-zero, which leads to changes in the growth of structure and the strength of the gravitational lensing effect. Here we report that EG = 0.39+/-0.06 on length scales of tens of megaparsecs, in agreement with the general relativistic prediction of EG~0.4. The measured value excludes a model within the tensor-vector-scalar gravity theory, which modifies both Newtonian and Einstein gravity. However, the relatively large uncertainty still permits models within f() theory, which is an extension of general relativity. A fivefold decrease in uncertainty is needed to rule out these models.

Large uncertainty in permafrost carbon stocks due to hillslope soil deposits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shelef, Eitan; Rowland, Joel C.; Wilson, Cathy J.

Here, northern circumpolar permafrost soils contain more than a third of the global Soil Organic Carbon pool (SOC). The sensitivity of this carbon pool to a changing climate is a primary source of uncertainty in simulationbased climate projections. These projections, however, do not account for the accumulation of soil deposits at the base of hillslopes (hill-toes), and the influence of this accumulation on the distribution, sequestration, and decomposition of SOC in landscapes affected by permafrost. Here we combine topographic models with soil-profile data and topographic analysis to evaluate the quantity and uncertainty of SOC mass stored in perennially frozen hill-toemore » soil deposits. We show that in Alaska this SOC mass introduces an uncertainty that is > 200% than state-wide estimates of SOC stocks (77 PgC), and that a similarly large uncertainty may also pertain at a circumpolar scale. Soil sampling and geophysical-imaging efforts that target hill-toe deposits can help constrain this large uncertainty.« less

Large uncertainty in permafrost carbon stocks due to hillslope soil deposits

DOE PAGES

Shelef, Eitan; Rowland, Joel C.; Wilson, Cathy J.; ...

2017-05-31

Here, northern circumpolar permafrost soils contain more than a third of the global Soil Organic Carbon pool (SOC). The sensitivity of this carbon pool to a changing climate is a primary source of uncertainty in simulationbased climate projections. These projections, however, do not account for the accumulation of soil deposits at the base of hillslopes (hill-toes), and the influence of this accumulation on the distribution, sequestration, and decomposition of SOC in landscapes affected by permafrost. Here we combine topographic models with soil-profile data and topographic analysis to evaluate the quantity and uncertainty of SOC mass stored in perennially frozen hill-toemore » soil deposits. We show that in Alaska this SOC mass introduces an uncertainty that is > 200% than state-wide estimates of SOC stocks (77 PgC), and that a similarly large uncertainty may also pertain at a circumpolar scale. Soil sampling and geophysical-imaging efforts that target hill-toe deposits can help constrain this large uncertainty.« less

Novel patch modelling method for efficient simulation and prediction uncertainty analysis of multi-scale groundwater flow and transport processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreekanth, J.; Moore, Catherine

2018-04-01

The application of global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques to groundwater models of deep sedimentary basins are typically challenged by large computational burdens combined with associated numerical stability issues. The highly parameterized approaches required for exploring the predictive uncertainty associated with the heterogeneous hydraulic characteristics of multiple aquifers and aquitards in these sedimentary basins exacerbate these issues. A novel Patch Modelling Methodology is proposed for improving the computational feasibility of stochastic modelling analysis of large-scale and complex groundwater models. The method incorporates a nested groundwater modelling framework that enables efficient simulation of groundwater flow and transport across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The method also allows different processes to be simulated within different model scales. Existing nested model methodologies are extended by employing 'joining predictions' for extrapolating prediction-salient information from one model scale to the next. This establishes a feedback mechanism supporting the transfer of information from child models to parent models as well as parent models to child models in a computationally efficient manner. This feedback mechanism is simple and flexible and ensures that while the salient small scale features influencing larger scale prediction are transferred back to the larger scale, this does not require the live coupling of models. This method allows the modelling of multiple groundwater flow and transport processes using separate groundwater models that are built for the appropriate spatial and temporal scales, within a stochastic framework, while also removing the computational burden associated with live model coupling. The utility of the method is demonstrated by application to an actual large scale aquifer injection scheme in Australia.

Data-driven Applications for the Sun-Earth System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, D. A.

2016-12-01

Advances in observational and data mining techniques allow extracting information from the large volume of Sun-Earth observational data that can be assimilated into first principles physical models. However, equations governing Sun-Earth phenomena are typically nonlinear, complex, and high-dimensional. The high computational demand of solving the full governing equations over a large range of scales precludes the use of a variety of useful assimilative tools that rely on applied mathematical and statistical techniques for quantifying uncertainty and predictability. Effective use of such tools requires the development of computationally efficient methods to facilitate fusion of data with models. This presentation will provide an overview of various existing as well as newly developed data-driven techniques adopted from atmospheric and oceanic sciences that proved to be useful for space physics applications, such as computationally efficient implementation of Kalman Filter in radiation belts modeling, solar wind gap-filling by Singular Spectrum Analysis, and low-rank procedure for assimilation of low-altitude ionospheric magnetic perturbations into the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global magnetospheric model. Reduced-order non-Markovian inverse modeling and novel data-adaptive decompositions of Sun-Earth datasets will be also demonstrated.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitanidis, Peter

As large-scale, commercial storage projects become operational, the problem of utilizing information from diverse sources becomes more critically important. In this project, we developed, tested, and applied an advanced joint data inversion system for CO 2 storage modeling with large data sets for use in site characterization and real-time monitoring. Emphasis was on the development of advanced and efficient computational algorithms for joint inversion of hydro-geophysical data, coupled with state-of-the-art forward process simulations. The developed system consists of (1) inversion tools using characterization data, such as 3D seismic survey (amplitude images), borehole log and core data, as well as hydraulic,more » tracer and thermal tests before CO 2 injection, (2) joint inversion tools for updating the geologic model with the distribution of rock properties, thus reducing uncertainty, using hydro-geophysical monitoring data, and (3) highly efficient algorithms for directly solving the dense or sparse linear algebra systems derived from the joint inversion. The system combines methods from stochastic analysis, fast linear algebra, and high performance computing. The developed joint inversion tools have been tested through synthetic CO 2 storage examples.« less

Effective Integration of Earth Observation Data and Flood Modeling for Rapid Disaster Response: The Texas 2015 Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, G.

2016-12-01

Routinely obtaining real-time 2-D inundation patterns of a flood event at a meaningful spatial resolution and over large scales is at the moment only feasible with either operational aircraft flights or satellite imagery. Of course having model simulations of floodplain inundation available to complement the remote sensing data is highly desirable, for both event re-analysis and forecasting event inundation. Using the Texas 2015 flood disaster, we demonstrate the value of multi-scale EO data for large scale 2-D floodplain inundation modeling and forecasting. A dynamic re-analysis of the Texas 2015 flood disaster was run using a 2-D flood model developed for accurate large scale simulations. We simulated the major rivers entering the Gulf of Mexico and used flood maps produced from both optical and SAR satellite imagery to examine regional model sensitivities and assess associated performance. It was demonstrated that satellite flood maps can complement model simulations and add value, although this is largely dependent on a number of important factors, such as image availability, regional landscape topology, and model uncertainty. In the preferred case where model uncertainty is high, landscape topology is complex (i.e. urbanized coastal area) and satellite flood maps are available (in case of SAR for instance), satellite data can significantly reduce model uncertainty by identifying the "best possible" model parameter set. However, most often the situation is occurring where model uncertainty is low and spatially contiguous flooding can be mapped from satellites easily enough, such as in rural large inland river floodplains. Consequently, not much value from satellites can be added. Nevertheless, where a large number of flood maps are available, model credibility can be increased substantially. In the case presented here this was true for at least 60% of the many thousands of kilometers of river flow length simulated, where satellite flood maps existed. The next steps of this project is to employ a technique termed "targeted observation" approach, which is an assimilation based procedure that allows quantifying the impact observations have on model predictions at the local scale and also along the entire river system, when assimilated with the model at specific "overpass" locations.

A general model for attitude determination error analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis; Seidewitz, ED; Nicholson, Mark

1988-01-01

An overview is given of a comprehensive approach to filter and dynamics modeling for attitude determination error analysis. The models presented include both batch least-squares and sequential attitude estimation processes for both spin-stabilized and three-axis stabilized spacecraft. The discussion includes a brief description of a dynamics model of strapdown gyros, but it does not cover other sensor models. Model parameters can be chosen to be solve-for parameters, which are assumed to be estimated as part of the determination process, or consider parameters, which are assumed to have errors but not to be estimated. The only restriction on this choice is that the time evolution of the consider parameters must not depend on any of the solve-for parameters. The result of an error analysis is an indication of the contributions of the various error sources to the uncertainties in the determination of the spacecraft solve-for parameters. The model presented gives the uncertainty due to errors in the a priori estimates of the solve-for parameters, the uncertainty due to measurement noise, the uncertainty due to dynamic noise (also known as process noise or measurement noise), the uncertainty due to the consider parameters, and the overall uncertainty due to all these sources of error.

Measuring health-related problem solving among African Americans with multiple chronic conditions: application of Rasch analysis.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Stephanie L; Hill-Briggs, Felicia

2015-10-01

Identification of patients with poor chronic disease self-management skills can facilitate treatment planning, determine effectiveness of interventions, and reduce disease complications. This paper describes the use of a Rasch model, the Rating Scale Model, to examine psychometric properties of the 50-item Health Problem-Solving Scale (HPSS) among 320 African American patients with high risk for cardiovascular disease. Items on the positive/effective HPSS subscales targeted patients at low, moderate, and high levels of positive/effective problem solving, whereas items on the negative/ineffective problem solving subscales mostly targeted those at moderate or high levels of ineffective problem solving. Validity was examined by correlating factor scores on the measure with clinical and behavioral measures. Items on the HPSS show promise in the ability to assess health-related problem solving among high risk patients. However, further revisions of the scale are needed to increase its usability and validity with large, diverse patient populations in the future.

Vectorial finite elements for solving the radiative transfer equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badri, M. A.; Jolivet, P.; Rousseau, B.; Le Corre, S.; Digonnet, H.; Favennec, Y.

2018-06-01

The discrete ordinate method coupled with the finite element method is often used for the spatio-angular discretization of the radiative transfer equation. In this paper we attempt to improve upon such a discretization technique. Instead of using standard finite elements, we reformulate the radiative transfer equation using vectorial finite elements. In comparison to standard finite elements, this reformulation yields faster timings for the linear system assemblies, as well as for the solution phase when using scattering media. The proposed vectorial finite element discretization for solving the radiative transfer equation is cross-validated against a benchmark problem available in literature. In addition, we have used the method of manufactured solutions to verify the order of accuracy for our discretization technique within different absorbing, scattering, and emitting media. For solving large problems of radiation on parallel computers, the vectorial finite element method is parallelized using domain decomposition. The proposed domain decomposition method scales on large number of processes, and its performance is unaffected by the changes in optical thickness of the medium. Our parallel solver is used to solve a large scale radiative transfer problem of the Kelvin-cell radiation.

Learning Analysis of K-12 Students' Online Problem Solving: A Three-Stage Assessment Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hu, Yiling; Wu, Bian; Gu, Xiaoqing

2017-01-01

Problem solving is considered a fundamental human skill. However, large-scale assessment of problem solving in K-12 education remains a challenging task. Researchers have argued for the development of an enhanced assessment approach through joint effort from multiple disciplines. In this study, a three-stage approach based on an evidence-centered…

Intrinsic uncertainty on the nature of dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valkenburg, Wessel; Kunz, Martin; Marra, Valerio

2013-12-01

We argue that there is an intrinsic noise on measurements of the equation of state parameter w = p/ρ from large-scale structure around us. The presence of the large-scale structure leads to an ambiguity in the definition of the background universe and thus there is a maximal precision with which we can determine the equation of state of dark energy. To study the uncertainty due to local structure, we model density perturbations stemming from a standard inflationary power spectrum by means of the exact Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi solution of Einstein’s equation, and show that the usual distribution of matter inhomogeneities in a ΛCDM cosmology causes a variation of w - as inferred from distance measures - of several percent. As we observe only one universe, or equivalently because of the cosmic variance, this uncertainty is systematic in nature.

Traits Without Borders: Integrating Functional Diversity Across Scales.

PubMed

Carmona, Carlos P; de Bello, Francesco; Mason, Norman W H; Lepš, Jan

2016-05-01

Owing to the conceptual complexity of functional diversity (FD), a multitude of different methods are available for measuring it, with most being operational at only a small range of spatial scales. This causes uncertainty in ecological interpretations and limits the potential to generalize findings across studies or compare patterns across scales. We solve this problem by providing a unified framework expanding on and integrating existing approaches. The framework, based on trait probability density (TPD), is the first to fully implement the Hutchinsonian concept of the niche as a probabilistic hypervolume in estimating FD. This novel approach could revolutionize FD-based research by allowing quantification of the various FD components from organismal to macroecological scales, and allowing seamless transitions between scales. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solving large scale structure in ten easy steps with COLA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tassev, Svetlin; Zaldarriaga, Matias; Eisenstein, Daniel J., E-mail: stassev@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: matiasz@ias.edu, E-mail: deisenstein@cfa.harvard.edu

2013-06-01

We present the COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration (COLA) method: an N-body method for solving for Large Scale Structure (LSS) in a frame that is comoving with observers following trajectories calculated in Lagrangian Perturbation Theory (LPT). Unlike standard N-body methods, the COLA method can straightforwardly trade accuracy at small-scales in order to gain computational speed without sacrificing accuracy at large scales. This is especially useful for cheaply generating large ensembles of accurate mock halo catalogs required to study galaxy clustering and weak lensing, as those catalogs are essential for performing detailed error analysis for ongoing and future surveys of LSS. As anmore » illustration, we ran a COLA-based N-body code on a box of size 100 Mpc/h with particles of mass ≈ 5 × 10{sup 9}M{sub s}un/h. Running the code with only 10 timesteps was sufficient to obtain an accurate description of halo statistics down to halo masses of at least 10{sup 11}M{sub s}un/h. This is only at a modest speed penalty when compared to mocks obtained with LPT. A standard detailed N-body run is orders of magnitude slower than our COLA-based code. The speed-up we obtain with COLA is due to the fact that we calculate the large-scale dynamics exactly using LPT, while letting the N-body code solve for the small scales, without requiring it to capture exactly the internal dynamics of halos. Achieving a similar level of accuracy in halo statistics without the COLA method requires at least 3 times more timesteps than when COLA is employed.« less

ISMIP6 - initMIP: Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Abe Ouchi, Ayako; Gregory, Jonathan; Lipscomb, William; Seroussi, Helene; Shepherd, Andrew; Edwards, Tamsin

2016-04-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. This intercomparison exercise (initMIP) aims at comparing, evaluating and improving the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experiments are conceived for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet and are designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The latter experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss first results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

A numerical projection technique for large-scale eigenvalue problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamillscheg, Ralf; Haase, Gundolf; von der Linden, Wolfgang

2011-10-01

We present a new numerical technique to solve large-scale eigenvalue problems. It is based on the projection technique, used in strongly correlated quantum many-body systems, where first an effective approximate model of smaller complexity is constructed by projecting out high energy degrees of freedom and in turn solving the resulting model by some standard eigenvalue solver. Here we introduce a generalization of this idea, where both steps are performed numerically and which in contrast to the standard projection technique converges in principle to the exact eigenvalues. This approach is not just applicable to eigenvalue problems encountered in many-body systems but also in other areas of research that result in large-scale eigenvalue problems for matrices which have, roughly speaking, mostly a pronounced dominant diagonal part. We will present detailed studies of the approach guided by two many-body models.

Efficient Storage Scheme of Covariance Matrix during Inverse Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, D.; Yeh, T. J.

2013-12-01

During stochastic inverse modeling, the covariance matrix of geostatistical based methods carries the information about the geologic structure. Its update during iterations reflects the decrease of uncertainty with the incorporation of observed data. For large scale problem, its storage and update cost too much memory and computational resources. In this study, we propose a new efficient storage scheme for storage and update. Compressed Sparse Column (CSC) format is utilized to storage the covariance matrix, and users can assign how many data they prefer to store based on correlation scales since the data beyond several correlation scales are usually not very informative for inverse modeling. After every iteration, only the diagonal terms of the covariance matrix are updated. The off diagonal terms are calculated and updated based on shortened correlation scales with a pre-assigned exponential model. The correlation scales are shortened by a coefficient, i.e. 0.95, every iteration to show the decrease of uncertainty. There is no universal coefficient for all the problems and users are encouraged to try several times. This new scheme is tested with 1D examples first. The estimated results and uncertainty are compared with the traditional full storage method. In the end, a large scale numerical model is utilized to validate this new scheme.

Model Uncertainty Quantification Methods For Data Assimilation In Partially Observed Multi-Scale Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S. D.; van Leeuwen, P. J.

2017-12-01

Model Uncertainty Quantification remains one of the central challenges of effective Data Assimilation (DA) in complex partially observed non-linear systems. Stochastic parameterization methods have been proposed in recent years as a means of capturing the uncertainty associated with unresolved sub-grid scale processes. Such approaches generally require some knowledge of the true sub-grid scale process or rely on full observations of the larger scale resolved process. We present a methodology for estimating the statistics of sub-grid scale processes using only partial observations of the resolved process. It finds model error realisations over a training period by minimizing their conditional variance, constrained by available observations. Special is that these realisations are binned conditioned on the previous model state during the minimization process, allowing for the recovery of complex error structures. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through numerical experiments on the multi-scale Lorenz 96' model. We consider different parameterizations of the model with both small and large time scale separations between slow and fast variables. Results are compared to two existing methods for accounting for model uncertainty in DA and shown to provide improved analyses and forecasts.

Predictive Scheduling for Electric Vehicles Considering Uncertainty of Load and User Behaviors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Bin; Huang, Rui; Wang, Yubo

2016-05-02

Un-coordinated Electric Vehicle (EV) charging can create unexpected load in local distribution grid, which may degrade the power quality and system reliability. The uncertainty of EV load, user behaviors and other baseload in distribution grid, is one of challenges that impedes optimal control for EV charging problem. Previous researches did not fully solve this problem due to lack of real-world EV charging data and proper stochastic model to describe these behaviors. In this paper, we propose a new predictive EV scheduling algorithm (PESA) inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC), which includes a dynamic load estimation module and a predictive optimizationmore » module. The user-related EV load and base load are dynamically estimated based on the historical data. At each time interval, the predictive optimization program will be computed for optimal schedules given the estimated parameters. Only the first element from the algorithm outputs will be implemented according to MPC paradigm. Current-multiplexing function in each Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) is considered and accordingly a virtual load is modeled to handle the uncertainties of future EV energy demands. This system is validated by the real-world EV charging data collected on UCLA campus and the experimental results indicate that our proposed model not only reduces load variation up to 40% but also maintains a high level of robustness. Finally, IEC 61850 standard is utilized to standardize the data models involved, which brings significance to more reliable and large-scale implementation.« less

An adaptive response surface method for crashworthiness optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Lei; Yang, Ren-Jye; Zhu, Ping

2013-11-01

Response surface-based design optimization has been commonly used for optimizing large-scale design problems in the automotive industry. However, most response surface models are built by a limited number of design points without considering data uncertainty. In addition, the selection of a response surface in the literature is often arbitrary. This article uses a Bayesian metric to systematically select the best available response surface among several candidates in a library while considering data uncertainty. An adaptive, efficient response surface strategy, which minimizes the number of computationally intensive simulations, was developed for design optimization of large-scale complex problems. This methodology was demonstrated by a crashworthiness optimization example.

Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Chambers, Lin H.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Minnis, Patrick

2009-01-01

Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

Measuring high-density built environment for public health research: Uncertainty with respect to data, indicator design and spatial scale.

PubMed

Sun, Guibo; Webster, Chris; Ni, Michael Y; Zhang, Xiaohu

2018-05-07

Uncertainty with respect to built environment (BE) data collection, measure conceptualization and spatial scales is evident in urban health research, but most findings are from relatively lowdensity contexts. We selected Hong Kong, an iconic high-density city, as the study area as limited research has been conducted on uncertainty in such areas. We used geocoded home addresses (n=5732) from a large population-based cohort in Hong Kong to extract BE measures for the participants' place of residence based on an internationally recognized BE framework. Variability of the measures was mapped and Spearman's rank correlation calculated to assess how well the relationships among indicators are preserved across variables and spatial scales. We found extreme variations and uncertainties for the 180 measures collected using comprehensive data and advanced geographic information systems modelling techniques. We highlight the implications of methodological selection and spatial scales of the measures. The results suggest that more robust information regarding urban health research in high-density city would emerge if greater consideration were given to BE data, design methods and spatial scales of the BE measures.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Gang

Mid-latitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate-related damage. Yet large uncertainties remain in climate model projections of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain/snow events on regional scales, limiting our ability to effectively use these projections for climate adaptation and mitigation. These uncertainties can be attributed to both the lack of spatial resolution in the models, and to the lack of a dynamical understanding of these extremes. The approach of this project is to relate the fine-scale features to the large scales in current climate simulations, seasonal re-forecasts, and climate change projections in a very widemore » range of models, including the atmospheric and coupled models of ECMWF over a range of horizontal resolutions (125 to 10 km), aqua-planet configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales and High Order Method Modeling Environments (resolutions ranging from 240 km – 7.5 km) with various physics suites, and selected CMIP5 model simulations. The large scale circulation will be quantified both on the basis of the well tested preferred circulation regime approach, and very recently developed measures, the finite amplitude Wave Activity (FAWA) and its spectrum. The fine scale structures related to extremes will be diagnosed following the latest approaches in the literature. The goal is to use the large scale measures as indicators of the probability of occurrence of the finer scale structures, and hence extreme events. These indicators will then be applied to the CMIP5 models and time-slice projections of a future climate.« less

A Generalized Perturbation Theory Solver In Rattlesnake Based On PETSc With Application To TREAT Steady State Uncertainty Quantification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schunert, Sebastian; Wang, Congjian; Wang, Yaqi

Rattlesnake and MAMMOTH are the designated TREAT analysis tools currently being developed at the Idaho National Laboratory. Concurrent with development of the multi-physics, multi-scale capabilities, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA/UQ) capabilities are required for predicitive modeling of the TREAT reactor. For steady-state SA/UQ, that is essential for setting initial conditions for the transients, generalized perturbation theory (GPT) will be used. This work describes the implementation of a PETSc based solver for the generalized adjoint equations that constitute a inhomogeneous, rank deficient problem. The standard approach is to use an outer iteration strategy with repeated removal of the fundamental modemore » contamination. The described GPT algorithm directly solves the GPT equations without the need of an outer iteration procedure by using Krylov subspaces that are orthogonal to the operator’s nullspace. Three test problems are solved and provide sufficient verification for the Rattlesnake’s GPT capability. We conclude with a preliminary example evaluating the impact of the Boron distribution in the TREAT reactor using perturbation theory.« less

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

On the Monte Carlo simulation of electron transport in the sub-1 keV energy range.

PubMed

Thomson, Rowan M; Kawrakow, Iwan

2011-08-01

The validity of "classic" Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of electron and positron transport at sub-1 keV energies is investigated in the context of quantum theory. Quantum theory dictates that uncertainties on the position and energy-momentum four-vectors of radiation quanta obey Heisenberg's uncertainty relation; however, these uncertainties are neglected in "classical" MC simulations of radiation transport in which position and momentum are known precisely. Using the quantum uncertainty relation and electron mean free path, the magnitudes of uncertainties on electron position and momentum are calculated for different kinetic energies; a validity bound on the classical simulation of electron transport is derived. In order to satisfy the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, uncertainties of 5% must be assigned to position and momentum for 1 keV electrons in water; at 100 eV, these uncertainties are 17 to 20% and are even larger at lower energies. In gaseous media such as air, these uncertainties are much smaller (less than 1% for electrons with energy 20 eV or greater). The classical Monte Carlo transport treatment is questionable for sub-1 keV electrons in condensed water as uncertainties on position and momentum must be large (relative to electron momentum and mean free path) to satisfy the quantum uncertainty principle. Simulations which do not account for these uncertainties are not faithful representations of the physical processes, calling into question the results of MC track structure codes simulating sub-1 keV electron transport. Further, the large difference in the scale at which quantum effects are important in gaseous and condensed media suggests that track structure measurements in gases are not necessarily representative of track structure in condensed materials on a micrometer or a nanometer scale.

ExM:System Support for Extreme-Scale, Many-Task Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katz, Daniel S

The ever-increasing power of supercomputer systems is both driving and enabling the emergence of new problem-solving methods that require the effi cient execution of many concurrent and interacting tasks. Methodologies such as rational design (e.g., in materials science), uncertainty quanti fication (e.g., in engineering), parameter estimation (e.g., for chemical and nuclear potential functions, and in economic energy systems modeling), massive dynamic graph pruning (e.g., in phylogenetic searches), Monte-Carlo- based iterative fi xing (e.g., in protein structure prediction), and inverse modeling (e.g., in reservoir simulation) all have these requirements. These many-task applications frequently have aggregate computing needs that demand the fastestmore » computers. For example, proposed next-generation climate model ensemble studies will involve 1,000 or more runs, each requiring 10,000 cores for a week, to characterize model sensitivity to initial condition and parameter uncertainty. The goal of the ExM project is to achieve the technical advances required to execute such many-task applications efficiently, reliably, and easily on petascale and exascale computers. In this way, we will open up extreme-scale computing to new problem solving methods and application classes. In this document, we report on combined technical progress of the collaborative ExM project, and the institutional financial status of the portion of the project at University of Chicago, over the rst 8 months (through April 30, 2011)« less

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N.

Here, wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in themore » presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.« less

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N

Wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in the presencemore » of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.« less

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan; Dykes, Katherine; Fleming, Paul; Ning, Andrew

2017-05-01

Wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as “wake steering,” in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in the presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

DOE PAGES

Quick, Julian; Annoni, Jennifer; King, Ryan N.; ...

2017-06-13

Here, wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in themore » presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.« less

Stream Discharge and Evapotranspiration Responses to Climate Change and Their Associated Uncertainties in a Large Semi-Arid Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassam, S.; Ren, J.

2017-12-01

Predicting future water availability in watersheds is very important for proper water resources management, especially in semi-arid regions with scarce water resources. Hydrological models have been considered as powerful tools in predicting future hydrological conditions in watershed systems in the past two decades. Streamflow and evapotranspiration are the two important components in watershed water balance estimation as the former is the most commonly-used indicator of the overall water budget estimation, and the latter is the second biggest component of water budget (biggest outflow from the system). One of the main concerns in watershed scale hydrological modeling is the uncertainties associated with model prediction, which could arise from errors in model parameters and input meteorological data, or errors in model representation of the physics of hydrological processes. Understanding and quantifying these uncertainties are vital to water resources managers for proper decision making based on model predictions. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of different climate change scenarios on the future stream discharge and evapotranspiration, and their associated uncertainties, throughout a large semi-arid basin using a stochastically-calibrated, physically-based, semi-distributed hydrological model. The results of this study could provide valuable insights in applying hydrological models in large scale watersheds, understanding the associated sensitivity and uncertainties in model parameters, and estimating the corresponding impacts on interested hydrological process variables under different climate change scenarios.

Performance of Extended Local Clustering Organization (LCO) for Large Scale Job-Shop Scheduling Problem (JSP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konno, Yohko; Suzuki, Keiji

This paper describes an approach to development of a solution algorithm of a general-purpose for large scale problems using “Local Clustering Organization (LCO)” as a new solution for Job-shop scheduling problem (JSP). Using a performance effective large scale scheduling in the study of usual LCO, a solving JSP keep stability induced better solution is examined. In this study for an improvement of a performance of a solution for JSP, processes to a optimization by LCO is examined, and a scheduling solution-structure is extended to a new solution-structure based on machine-division. A solving method introduced into effective local clustering for the solution-structure is proposed as an extended LCO. An extended LCO has an algorithm which improves scheduling evaluation efficiently by clustering of parallel search which extends over plural machines. A result verified by an application of extended LCO on various scale of problems proved to conduce to minimizing make-span and improving on the stable performance.

Solving Fuzzy Optimization Problem Using Hybrid Ls-Sa Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasant, Pandian

2011-06-01

Fuzzy optimization problem has been one of the most and prominent topics inside the broad area of computational intelligent. It's especially relevant in the filed of fuzzy non-linear programming. It's application as well as practical realization can been seen in all the real world problems. In this paper a large scale non-linear fuzzy programming problem has been solved by hybrid optimization techniques of Line Search (LS), Simulated Annealing (SA) and Pattern Search (PS). As industrial production planning problem with cubic objective function, 8 decision variables and 29 constraints has been solved successfully using LS-SA-PS hybrid optimization techniques. The computational results for the objective function respect to vagueness factor and level of satisfaction has been provided in the form of 2D and 3D plots. The outcome is very promising and strongly suggests that the hybrid LS-SA-PS algorithm is very efficient and productive in solving the large scale non-linear fuzzy programming problem.

Low frequency full waveform seismic inversion within a tree based Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, Anandaroop; Kaplan, Sam; Washbourne, John; Albertin, Uwe

2018-01-01

Limited illumination, insufficient offset, noisy data and poor starting models can pose challenges for seismic full waveform inversion. We present an application of a tree based Bayesian inversion scheme which attempts to mitigate these problems by accounting for data uncertainty while using a mildly informative prior about subsurface structure. We sample the resulting posterior model distribution of compressional velocity using a trans-dimensional (trans-D) or Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method in the wavelet transform domain of velocity. This allows us to attain rapid convergence to a stationary distribution of posterior models while requiring a limited number of wavelet coefficients to define a sampled model. Two synthetic, low frequency, noisy data examples are provided. The first example is a simple reflection + transmission inverse problem, and the second uses a scaled version of the Marmousi velocity model, dominated by reflections. Both examples are initially started from a semi-infinite half-space with incorrect background velocity. We find that the trans-D tree based approach together with parallel tempering for navigating rugged likelihood (i.e. misfit) topography provides a promising, easily generalized method for solving large-scale geophysical inverse problems which are difficult to optimize, but where the true model contains a hierarchy of features at multiple scales.

The fastclime Package for Linear Programming and Large-Scale Precision Matrix Estimation in R.

PubMed

Pang, Haotian; Liu, Han; Vanderbei, Robert

2014-02-01

We develop an R package fastclime for solving a family of regularized linear programming (LP) problems. Our package efficiently implements the parametric simplex algorithm, which provides a scalable and sophisticated tool for solving large-scale linear programs. As an illustrative example, one use of our LP solver is to implement an important sparse precision matrix estimation method called CLIME (Constrained L 1 Minimization Estimator). Compared with existing packages for this problem such as clime and flare, our package has three advantages: (1) it efficiently calculates the full piecewise-linear regularization path; (2) it provides an accurate dual certificate as stopping criterion; (3) it is completely coded in C and is highly portable. This package is designed to be useful to statisticians and machine learning researchers for solving a wide range of problems.

pycola: N-body COLA method code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tassev, Svetlin; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Wandelt, Benjamin D.; Zaldarriagag, Matias

2015-09-01

pycola is a multithreaded Python/Cython N-body code, implementing the Comoving Lagrangian Acceleration (COLA) method in the temporal and spatial domains, which trades accuracy at small-scales to gain computational speed without sacrificing accuracy at large scales. This is especially useful for cheaply generating large ensembles of accurate mock halo catalogs required to study galaxy clustering and weak lensing. The COLA method achieves its speed by calculating the large-scale dynamics exactly using LPT while letting the N-body code solve for the small scales, without requiring it to capture exactly the internal dynamics of halos.

Solving LP Relaxations of Large-Scale Precedence Constrained Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bienstock, Daniel; Zuckerberg, Mark

We describe new algorithms for solving linear programming relaxations of very large precedence constrained production scheduling problems. We present theory that motivates a new set of algorithmic ideas that can be employed on a wide range of problems; on data sets arising in the mining industry our algorithms prove effective on problems with many millions of variables and constraints, obtaining provably optimal solutions in a few minutes of computation.

An extended basis inexact shift-invert Lanczos for the efficient solution of large-scale generalized eigenproblems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rewieński, M.; Lamecki, A.; Mrozowski, M.

2013-09-01

This paper proposes a technique, based on the Inexact Shift-Invert Lanczos (ISIL) method with Inexact Jacobi Orthogonal Component Correction (IJOCC) refinement, and a preconditioned conjugate-gradient (PCG) linear solver with multilevel preconditioner, for finding several eigenvalues for generalized symmetric eigenproblems. Several eigenvalues are found by constructing (with the ISIL process) an extended projection basis. Presented results of numerical experiments confirm the technique can be effectively applied to challenging, large-scale problems characterized by very dense spectra, such as resonant cavities with spatial dimensions which are large with respect to wavelengths of the resonating electromagnetic fields. It is also shown that the proposed scheme based on inexact linear solves delivers superior performance, as compared to methods which rely on exact linear solves, indicating tremendous potential of the 'inexact solve' concept. Finally, the scheme which generates an extended projection basis is found to provide a cost-efficient alternative to classical deflation schemes when several eigenvalues are computed.

Large-scale block adjustment without use of ground control points based on the compensation of geometric calibration for ZY-3 images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bo; Wang, Mi; Xu, Wen; Li, Deren; Gong, Jianya; Pi, Yingdong

2017-12-01

The potential of large-scale block adjustment (BA) without ground control points (GCPs) has long been a concern among photogrammetric researchers, which is of effective guiding significance for global mapping. However, significant problems with the accuracy and efficiency of this method remain to be solved. In this study, we analyzed the effects of geometric errors on BA, and then developed a step-wise BA method to conduct integrated processing of large-scale ZY-3 satellite images without GCPs. We first pre-processed the BA data, by adopting a geometric calibration (GC) method based on the viewing-angle model to compensate for systematic errors, such that the BA input images were of good initial geometric quality. The second step was integrated BA without GCPs, in which a series of technical methods were used to solve bottleneck problems and ensure accuracy and efficiency. The BA model, based on virtual control points (VCPs), was constructed to address the rank deficiency problem caused by lack of absolute constraints. We then developed a parallel matching strategy to improve the efficiency of tie points (TPs) matching, and adopted a three-array data structure based on sparsity to relieve the storage and calculation burden of the high-order modified equation. Finally, we used the conjugate gradient method to improve the speed of solving the high-order equations. To evaluate the feasibility of the presented large-scale BA method, we conducted three experiments on real data collected by the ZY-3 satellite. The experimental results indicate that the presented method can effectively improve the geometric accuracies of ZY-3 satellite images. This study demonstrates the feasibility of large-scale mapping without GCPs.

Comment on high resolution simulations of cosmic strings. 1: Network evoloution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turok, Neil; Albrecht, Andreas

1990-01-01

Comments are made on recent claims (Albrecht and Turok, 1989) regarding simulations of cosmic string evolution. Specially, it was claimed that results were dominated by a numerical artifact which rounds out kinks on a scale of the order of the correlation length on the network. This claim was based on an approximate analysis of an interpolation equation which is solved herein. The typical rounding scale is actually less than one fifth of the correlation length, and comparable with other numerical cutoffs. Results confirm previous estimates of numerical uncertainties, and show that the approximations poorly represent the real solutions to the interpolation equation.

Including local rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions into a 2-D regional-local flood modelling cascade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bermúdez, María; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Bates, Paul D.; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim E.; Cea, Luis; Puertas, Jerónimo

2016-04-01

Flood inundation models require appropriate boundary conditions to be specified at the limits of the domain, which commonly consist of upstream flow rate and downstream water level. These data are usually acquired from gauging stations on the river network where measured water levels are converted to discharge via a rating curve. Derived streamflow estimates are therefore subject to uncertainties in this rating curve, including extrapolating beyond the maximum observed ratings magnitude. In addition, the limited number of gauges in reach-scale studies often requires flow to be routed from the nearest upstream gauge to the boundary of the model domain. This introduces additional uncertainty, derived not only from the flow routing method used, but also from the additional lateral rainfall-runoff contributions downstream of the gauging point. Although generally assumed to have a minor impact on discharge in fluvial flood modeling, this local hydrological input may become important in a sparse gauge network or in events with significant local rainfall. In this study, a method to incorporate rating curve uncertainty and the local rainfall-runoff dynamics into the predictions of a reach-scale flood inundation model is proposed. Discharge uncertainty bounds are generated by applying a non-parametric local weighted regression approach to stage-discharge measurements for two gauging stations, while measured rainfall downstream from these locations is cascaded into a hydrological model to quantify additional inflows along the main channel. A regional simplified-physics hydraulic model is then applied to combine these inputs and generate an ensemble of discharge and water elevation time series at the boundaries of a local-scale high complexity hydraulic model. Finally, the effect of these rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions are evaluated on the local-scale model. Improvements in model performance when incorporating these processes are quantified using observed flood extent data and measured water levels from a 2007 summer flood event on the river Severn. The area of interest is a 7 km reach in which the river passes through the city of Worcester, a low water slope, subcritical reach in which backwater effects are significant. For this domain, the catchment area between flow gauging stations extends over 540 km2. Four hydrological models from the FUSE framework (Framework for Understanding Structural Errors) were set up to simulate the rainfall-runoff process over this area. At this regional scale, a 2-dimensional hydraulic model that solves the local inertial approximation of the shallow water equations was applied to route the flow, whereas the full form of these equations was solved at the local scale to predict the urban flow field. This nested approach hence allows an examination of water fluxes from the catchment to the building scale, while requiring short setup and computational times. An accurate prediction of the magnitude and timing of the flood peak was obtained with the proposed method, in spite of the unusual structure of the rain episode and the complexity of the River Severn system. The findings highlight the importance of estimating boundary condition uncertainty and local rainfall contribution for accurate prediction of river flows and inundation.

Development and Applications of a Modular Parallel Process for Large Scale Fluid/Structures Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guruswamy, Guru P.; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A modular process that can efficiently solve large scale multidisciplinary problems using massively parallel supercomputers is presented. The process integrates disciplines with diverse physical characteristics by retaining the efficiency of individual disciplines. Computational domain independence of individual disciplines is maintained using a meta programming approach. The process integrates disciplines without affecting the combined performance. Results are demonstrated for large scale aerospace problems on several supercomputers. The super scalability and portability of the approach is demonstrated on several parallel computers.

Development and Applications of a Modular Parallel Process for Large Scale Fluid/Structures Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guruswamy, Guru P.; Byun, Chansup; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A modular process that can efficiently solve large scale multidisciplinary problems using massively parallel super computers is presented. The process integrates disciplines with diverse physical characteristics by retaining the efficiency of individual disciplines. Computational domain independence of individual disciplines is maintained using a meta programming approach. The process integrates disciplines without affecting the combined performance. Results are demonstrated for large scale aerospace problems on several supercomputers. The super scalability and portability of the approach is demonstrated on several parallel computers.

Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2013-03-02

The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of √s = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K s and Λ particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scalemore » uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2–5 % for central isolated hadrons and 1–3 % for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.« less

Quantifying and Qualifying USGS ShakeMap Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, David J.; Lin, Kuo-Wan; Quitoriano, Vincent

2008-01-01

We describe algorithms for quantifying and qualifying uncertainties associated with USGS ShakeMap ground motions. The uncertainty values computed consist of latitude/longitude grid-based multiplicative factors that scale the standard deviation associated with the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) used within the ShakeMap algorithm for estimating ground motions. The resulting grid-based 'uncertainty map' is essential for evaluation of losses derived using ShakeMaps as the hazard input. For ShakeMap, ground motion uncertainty at any point is dominated by two main factors: (i) the influence of any proximal ground motion observations, and (ii) the uncertainty of estimating ground motions from the GMPE, most notably, elevated uncertainty due to initial, unconstrained source rupture geometry. The uncertainty is highest for larger magnitude earthquakes when source finiteness is not yet constrained and, hence, the distance to rupture is also uncertain. In addition to a spatially-dependant, quantitative assessment, many users may prefer a simple, qualitative grading for the entire ShakeMap. We developed a grading scale that allows one to quickly gauge the appropriate level of confidence when using rapidly produced ShakeMaps as part of the post-earthquake decision-making process or for qualitative assessments of archived or historical earthquake ShakeMaps. We describe an uncertainty letter grading ('A' through 'F', for high to poor quality, respectively) based on the uncertainty map. A middle-range ('C') grade corresponds to a ShakeMap for a moderate-magnitude earthquake suitably represented with a point-source location. Lower grades 'D' and 'F' are assigned for larger events (M>6) where finite-source dimensions are not yet constrained. The addition of ground motion observations (or observed macroseismic intensities) reduces uncertainties over data-constrained portions of the map. Higher grades ('A' and 'B') correspond to ShakeMaps with constrained fault dimensions and numerous stations, depending on the density of station/data coverage. Due to these dependencies, the letter grade can change with subsequent ShakeMap revisions if more data are added or when finite-faulting dimensions are added. We emphasize that the greatest uncertainties are associated with unconstrained source dimensions for large earthquakes where the distance term in the GMPE is most uncertain; this uncertainty thus scales with magnitude (and consequently rupture dimension). Since this distance uncertainty produces potentially large uncertainties in ShakeMap ground-motion estimates, this factor dominates over compensating constraints for all but the most dense station distributions.

A General Iterative Shrinkage and Thresholding Algorithm for Non-convex Regularized Optimization Problems.

PubMed

Gong, Pinghua; Zhang, Changshui; Lu, Zhaosong; Huang, Jianhua Z; Ye, Jieping

2013-01-01

Non-convex sparsity-inducing penalties have recently received considerable attentions in sparse learning. Recent theoretical investigations have demonstrated their superiority over the convex counterparts in several sparse learning settings. However, solving the non-convex optimization problems associated with non-convex penalties remains a big challenge. A commonly used approach is the Multi-Stage (MS) convex relaxation (or DC programming), which relaxes the original non-convex problem to a sequence of convex problems. This approach is usually not very practical for large-scale problems because its computational cost is a multiple of solving a single convex problem. In this paper, we propose a General Iterative Shrinkage and Thresholding (GIST) algorithm to solve the nonconvex optimization problem for a large class of non-convex penalties. The GIST algorithm iteratively solves a proximal operator problem, which in turn has a closed-form solution for many commonly used penalties. At each outer iteration of the algorithm, we use a line search initialized by the Barzilai-Borwein (BB) rule that allows finding an appropriate step size quickly. The paper also presents a detailed convergence analysis of the GIST algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by extensive experiments on large-scale data sets.

Optimal configurations of spatial scale for grid cell firing under noise and uncertainty

PubMed Central

Towse, Benjamin W.; Barry, Caswell; Bush, Daniel; Burgess, Neil

2014-01-01

We examined the accuracy with which the location of an agent moving within an environment could be decoded from the simulated firing of systems of grid cells. Grid cells were modelled with Poisson spiking dynamics and organized into multiple ‘modules’ of cells, with firing patterns of similar spatial scale within modules and a wide range of spatial scales across modules. The number of grid cells per module, the spatial scaling factor between modules and the size of the environment were varied. Errors in decoded location can take two forms: small errors of precision and larger errors resulting from ambiguity in decoding periodic firing patterns. With enough cells per module (e.g. eight modules of 100 cells each) grid systems are highly robust to ambiguity errors, even over ranges much larger than the largest grid scale (e.g. over a 500 m range when the maximum grid scale is 264 cm). Results did not depend strongly on the precise organization of scales across modules (geometric, co-prime or random). However, independent spatial noise across modules, which would occur if modules receive independent spatial inputs and might increase with spatial uncertainty, dramatically degrades the performance of the grid system. This effect of spatial uncertainty can be mitigated by uniform expansion of grid scales. Thus, in the realistic regimes simulated here, the optimal overall scale for a grid system represents a trade-off between minimizing spatial uncertainty (requiring large scales) and maximizing precision (requiring small scales). Within this view, the temporary expansion of grid scales observed in novel environments may be an optimal response to increased spatial uncertainty induced by the unfamiliarity of the available spatial cues. PMID:24366144

Moral Distress in PICU and Neonatal ICU Practitioners: A Cross-Sectional Evaluation.

PubMed

Larson, Charles Philip; Dryden-Palmer, Karen D; Gibbons, Cathy; Parshuram, Christopher S

2017-08-01

To measure the level of moral distress in PICU and neonatal ICU health practitioners, and to describe the relationship of moral distress with demographic factors, burnout, and uncertainty. Cross-sectional survey. A large pediatric tertiary care center. Neonatal ICU and PICU health practitioners with at least 3 months of ICU experience. A 41-item questionnaire examining moral distress, burnout, and uncertainty. The main outcome was moral distress measured with the Revised Moral Distress Scale. Secondary outcomes were frequency and intensity Revised Moral Distress Scale subscores, burnout measured with the Maslach Burnout Inventory depersonalization subscale, and uncertainty measured with questions adapted from Mishel's Parent Perception of Uncertainty Scale. Linear regression models were used to examine associations between participant characteristics and the measures of moral distress, burnout, and uncertainty. Two-hundred six analyzable surveys were returned. The median Revised Moral Distress Scale score was 96.5 (interquartile range, 69-133), and 58% of respondents reported significant work-related moral distress. Revised Moral Distress Scale items involving end-of-life care and communication scored highest. Moral distress was positively associated with burnout (r = 0.27; p < 0.001) and uncertainty (r = 0.04; p = 0.008) and inversely associated with perceived hospital supportiveness (r = 0.18; p < 0.001). Nurses reported higher moral distress intensity than physicians (Revised Moral Distress Scale intensity subscores: 57.3 vs 44.7; p = 0.002). In nurses only, moral distress was positively associated with increasing years of ICU experience (p = 0.02) and uncertainty about whether their care was of benefit (r = 0.11; p < 0.001) and inversely associated with uncertainty about a child's prognosis (r = 0.03; p = 0.03). In this single-center, cross-sectional study, we found that moral distress is present in PICU and neonatal ICU health practitioners and is correlated with burnout, uncertainty, and feeling unsupported.

Uncertainty Quantification in High Throughput Screening: Applications to Models of Endocrine Disruption, Cytotoxicity, and Zebrafish Development (GRC Drug Safety)

EPA Science Inventory

Using uncertainty quantification, we aim to improve the quality of modeling data from high throughput screening assays for use in risk assessment. ToxCast is a large-scale screening program that analyzes thousands of chemicals using over 800 assays representing hundreds of bioche...

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oda, T.; Ott, L.; Lauvaux, T.; Feng, S.; Bun, R.; Roman, M.; Baker, D. F.; Pawson, S.

2017-01-01

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

Assessing uncertainties in gridded emissions: A case study for fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emission data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oda, T.; Ott, L. E.; Lauvaux, T.; Feng, S.; Bun, R.; Roman, M. O.; Baker, D. F.; Pawson, S.

2017-12-01

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds that share emission sectors.

Results of the Greenland Ice Sheet Model Initialisation Experiments ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, H.; Nowicki, S.; Edwards, T.; Beckley, M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Aschwanden, A.; Calov, R.; Gagliardini, O.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Golledge, N. R.; Gregory, J. M.; Greve, R.; Humbert, A.; Huybrechts, P.; Larour, E. Y.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Le ´h, S.; Lee, V.; Kennedy, J. H.; Pattyn, F.; Payne, A. J.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Rückamp, M.; Saito, F.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Shepherd, A.; Sun, S.; Vandewal, R.; Ziemen, F. A.

2016-12-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise (initMIP-Greenland) is to compare, evaluate and improve the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss final results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Jianbo; Kummerow, Christian D.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

Scheduling language and algorithm development study. Volume 1, phase 2: Design considerations for a scheduling and resource allocation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrell, R. A.; Odoherty, R. J.; Ramsey, H. R.; Reynolds, C. C.; Willoughby, J. K.; Working, R. D.

1975-01-01

Data and analyses related to a variety of algorithms for solving typical large-scale scheduling and resource allocation problems are presented. The capabilities and deficiencies of various alternative problem solving strategies are discussed from the viewpoint of computer system design.

An ensemble constrained variational analysis of atmospheric forcing data and its application to evaluate clouds in CAM5: Ensemble 3DCVA and Its Application

DOE PAGES

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

2016-01-05

Large-scale atmospheric forcing data can greatly impact the simulations of atmospheric process models including Large Eddy Simulations (LES), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) and Single-Column Models (SCMs), and impact the development of physical parameterizations in global climate models. This study describes the development of an ensemble variationally constrained objective analysis of atmospheric large-scale forcing data and its application to evaluate the cloud biases in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5). Sensitivities of the variational objective analysis to background data, error covariance matrix and constraint variables are described and used to quantify the uncertainties in the large-scale forcing data. Application of the ensemblemore » forcing in the CAM5 SCM during March 2000 intensive operational period (IOP) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program shows systematic biases in the model simulations that cannot be explained by the uncertainty of large-scale forcing data, which points to the deficiencies of physical parameterizations. The SCM is shown to overestimate high clouds and underestimate low clouds. These biases are found to also exist in the global simulation of CAM5 when it is compared with satellite data.« less

An ensemble constrained variational analysis of atmospheric forcing data and its application to evaluate clouds in CAM5: Ensemble 3DCVA and Its Application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

Large-scale atmospheric forcing data can greatly impact the simulations of atmospheric process models including Large Eddy Simulations (LES), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) and Single-Column Models (SCMs), and impact the development of physical parameterizations in global climate models. This study describes the development of an ensemble variationally constrained objective analysis of atmospheric large-scale forcing data and its application to evaluate the cloud biases in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5). Sensitivities of the variational objective analysis to background data, error covariance matrix and constraint variables are described and used to quantify the uncertainties in the large-scale forcing data. Application of the ensemblemore » forcing in the CAM5 SCM during March 2000 intensive operational period (IOP) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program shows systematic biases in the model simulations that cannot be explained by the uncertainty of large-scale forcing data, which points to the deficiencies of physical parameterizations. The SCM is shown to overestimate high clouds and underestimate low clouds. These biases are found to also exist in the global simulation of CAM5 when it is compared with satellite data.« less

Flexible kinematic earthquake rupture inversion of tele-seismic waveforms: Application to the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; Yagi, Y.; Okuwaki, R.; Kasahara, A.

2017-12-01

The kinematic earthquake rupture models are useful to derive statistics and scaling properties of the large and great earthquakes. However, the kinematic rupture models for the same earthquake are often different from one another. Such sensitivity of the modeling prevents us to understand the statistics and scaling properties of the earthquakes. Yagi and Fukahata (2011) introduces the uncertainty of Green's function into the tele-seismic waveform inversion, and shows that the stable spatiotemporal distribution of slip-rate can be obtained by using an empirical Bayesian scheme. One of the unsolved problems in the inversion rises from the modeling error originated from an uncertainty of a fault-model setting. Green's function near the nodal plane of focal mechanism is known to be sensitive to the slight change of the assumed fault geometry, and thus the spatiotemporal distribution of slip-rate should be distorted by the modeling error originated from the uncertainty of the fault model. We propose a new method accounting for the complexity in the fault geometry by additionally solving the focal mechanism on each space knot. Since a solution of finite source inversion gets unstable with an increasing of flexibility of the model, we try to estimate a stable spatiotemporal distribution of focal mechanism in the framework of Yagi and Fukahata (2011). We applied the proposed method to the 52 tele-seismic P-waveforms of the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake. The inverted-potency distribution shows unilateral rupture propagation toward southwest of the epicenter, and the spatial variation of the focal mechanisms shares the same pattern as the fault-curvature along the tectonic fabric. On the other hand, the broad pattern of rupture process, including the direction of rupture propagation, cannot be reproduced by an inversion analysis under the assumption that the faulting occurred on a single flat plane. These results show that the modeling error caused by simplifying the fault model is non-negligible in the tele-seismic waveform inversion of the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake.

Conservation of northern bobwhite on private lands in Georgia, USA under uncertainty about landscape-level habitat effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, J.E.; Moore, C.T.; Conroy, M.J.; Hamrick, R.G.; Cooper, R.J.; Thackston, R.E.; Carroll, J.P.

2009-01-01

Large-scale habitat enhancement programs for birds are becoming more widespread, however, most lack monitoring to resolve uncertainties and enhance program impact over time. Georgia?s Bobwhite Quail Initiative (BQI) is a competitive, proposal-based system that provides incentives to landowners to establish habitat for northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). Using data from monitoring conducted in the program?s first years (1999?2001), we developed alternative hierarchical models to predict bobwhite abundance in response to program habitat modifications on local and regional scales. Effects of habitat and habitat management on bobwhite population response varied among geographical scales, but high measurement variability rendered the specific nature of these scaled effects equivocal. Under some models, BQI had positive impact at both local farm scales (1, 9 km2), particularly when practice acres were clustered, whereas other credible models indicated that bird response did not depend on spatial arrangement of practices. Thus, uncertainty about landscape-level effects of management presents a challenge to program managers who must decide which proposals to accept. We demonstrate that optimal selection decisions can be made despite this uncertainty and that uncertainty can be reduced over time, with consequent improvement in management efficacy. However, such an adaptive approach to BQI program implementation would require the reestablishment of monitoring of bobwhite abundance, an effort for which funding was discontinued in 2002. For landscape-level conservation programs generally, our approach demonstrates the value in assessing multiple scales of impact of habitat modification programs, and it reveals the utility of addressing management uncertainty through multiple decision models and system monitoring.

Probabilistic Approach to Enable Extreme-Scale Simulations under Uncertainty and System Faults. Final Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knio, Omar

2017-05-05

The current project develops a novel approach that uses a probabilistic description to capture the current state of knowledge about the computational solution. To effectively spread the computational effort over multiple nodes, the global computational domain is split into many subdomains. Computational uncertainty in the solution translates into uncertain boundary conditions for the equation system to be solved on those subdomains, and many independent, concurrent subdomain simulations are used to account for this bound- ary condition uncertainty. By relying on the fact that solutions on neighboring subdomains must agree with each other, a more accurate estimate for the global solutionmore » can be achieved. Statistical approaches in this update process make it possible to account for the effect of system faults in the probabilistic description of the computational solution, and the associated uncertainty is reduced through successive iterations. By combining all of these elements, the probabilistic reformulation allows splitting the computational work over very many independent tasks for good scalability, while being robust to system faults.« less

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

PubMed

Seinfeld, John H; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J; Dunlea, Edward J; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M; Molina, Mario J; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E; Prather, Kimberly A; Ramanathan, V; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J; Ravishankara, A R; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

2016-05-24

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

Improving Our Fundamental Understanding of the Role of Aerosol Cloud Interactions in the Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kahn, Ralph;

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system

DOE PAGES

Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; ...

2016-05-24

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions but significant challengesmore » exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. Lastly, we suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.« less

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol−cloud interactions in the climate system

PubMed Central

Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kraucunas, Ian; Molina, Mario J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E.; Prather, Kimberly A.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

2016-01-01

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty. PMID:27222566

A GLOBAL GALACTIC DYNAMO WITH A CORONA CONSTRAINED BY RELATIVE HELICITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prasad, A.; Mangalam, A., E-mail: avijeet@iiap.res.in, E-mail: mangalam@iiap.res.in

We present a model for a global axisymmetric turbulent dynamo operating in a galaxy with a corona that treats the parameters of turbulence driven by supernovae and by magneto-rotational instability under a common formalism. The nonlinear quenching of the dynamo is alleviated by the inclusion of small-scale advective and diffusive magnetic helicity fluxes, which allow the gauge-invariant magnetic helicity to be transferred outside the disk and consequently to build up a corona during the course of dynamo action. The time-dependent dynamo equations are expressed in a separable form and solved through an eigenvector expansion constructed using the steady-state solutions ofmore » the dynamo equation. The parametric evolution of the dynamo solution allows us to estimate the final structure of the global magnetic field and the saturated value of the turbulence parameter α{sub m}, even before solving the dynamical equations for evolution of magnetic fields in the disk and the corona, along with α-quenching. We then solve these equations simultaneously to study the saturation of the large-scale magnetic field, its dependence on the small-scale magnetic helicity fluxes, and the corresponding evolution of the force-free field in the corona. The quadrupolar large-scale magnetic field in the disk is found to reach equipartition strength within a timescale of 1 Gyr. The large-scale magnetic field in the corona obtained is much weaker than the field inside the disk and has only a weak impact on the dynamo operation.« less

Precomputing upscaled hydraulic conductivity for complex geological structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariethoz, G.; Jha, S. K.; George, M.; Maheswarajah, S.; John, V.; De Re, D.; Smith, M.

2013-12-01

3D geological models are built to capture the geological heterogeneity at a fine scale. However groundwater modellers are often interested in the hydraulic conductivity (K) values at a much coarser scale to reduce the numerical burden. Upscaling is used to assign conductivity to large volumes, which necessarily causes a loss of information. Recent literature has shown that the connectivity in the channelized structures is an important feature that needs to be taken into account for accurate upscaling. In this work we study the effect of channel parameters, e.g. width, sinuosity, connectivity etc. on the upscaled values of the hydraulic conductivity and the associated uncertainty. We devise a methodology that derives correspondences between a lithological description and the equivalent hydraulic conductivity at a larger scale. The method uses multiple-point geostatistics simulations (MPS) and parameterizes the 3D structures by introducing continuous rotation and affinity parameters. Additional statistical characterization is obtained by transition probabilities and connectivity measures. Equivalent hydraulic conductivity is then estimated by solving a flow problem for the entire heterogeneous domain by applying steady state flow in horizontal and vertical directions. This is systematically performed for many random realisations of the small scale structures to enable a probability distribution for the equivalent upscaled hydraulic conductivity. This process allows deriving systematic relationships between a given depositional environment and precomputed equivalent parameters. A modeller can then exploit the prior knowledge of the depositional environment and expected geological heterogeneity to bypass the step of generating small-scale models, and directly work with upscaled values.

Measuring large-scale vertical motion in the atmosphere with dropsondes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn

2017-04-01

Large-scale vertical velocity modulates important processes in the atmosphere, including the formation of clouds, and constitutes a key component of the large-scale forcing of Single-Column Model simulations and Large-Eddy Simulations. Its measurement has also been a long-standing challenge for observationalists. We will show that it is possible to measure the vertical profile of large-scale wind divergence and vertical velocity from aircraft by using dropsondes. This methodology was tested in August 2016 during the NARVAL2 campaign in the lower Atlantic trades. Results will be shown for several research flights, the robustness and the uncertainty of measurements will be assessed, ands observational estimates will be compared with data from high-resolution numerical forecasts.

Considerations for interpreting probabilistic estimates of uncertainty of forest carbon

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

2000-01-01

Quantitative estimated of carbon inventories are needed as part of nationwide attempts to reduce net release of greenhouse gases and the associated climate forcing. Naturally, an appreciable amount of uncertainty is inherent in such large-scale assessments, especially since both science and policy issues are still evolving. Decision makers need an idea of the...

Uncertainties in the Item Parameter Estimates and Robust Automated Test Assembly

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Matteucci, Mariagiulia; de Jong, Martijn G.

2013-01-01

Item response theory parameters have to be estimated, and because of the estimation process, they do have uncertainty in them. In most large-scale testing programs, the parameters are stored in item banks, and automated test assembly algorithms are applied to assemble operational test forms. These algorithms treat item parameters as fixed values,…

Research on unit commitment with large-scale wind power connected power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Ran; Zhang, Baoqun; Chi, Zhongjun; Gong, Cheng; Ma, Longfei; Yang, Bing

2017-01-01

Large-scale integration of wind power generators into power grid brings severe challenges to power system economic dispatch due to its stochastic volatility. Unit commitment including wind farm is analyzed from the two parts of modeling and solving methods. The structures and characteristics can be summarized after classification has been done according to different objective function and constraints. Finally, the issues to be solved and possible directions of research and development in the future are discussed, which can adapt to the requirements of the electricity market, energy-saving power generation dispatching and smart grid, even providing reference for research and practice of researchers and workers in this field.

Large-scale inverse model analyses employing fast randomized data reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Youzuo; Le, Ellen B.; O'Malley, Daniel; Vesselinov, Velimir V.; Bui-Thanh, Tan

2017-08-01

When the number of observations is large, it is computationally challenging to apply classical inverse modeling techniques. We have developed a new computationally efficient technique for solving inverse problems with a large number of observations (e.g., on the order of 107 or greater). Our method, which we call the randomized geostatistical approach (RGA), is built upon the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). We employ a data reduction technique combined with the PCGA to improve the computational efficiency and reduce the memory usage. Specifically, we employ a randomized numerical linear algebra technique based on a so-called "sketching" matrix to effectively reduce the dimension of the observations without losing the information content needed for the inverse analysis. In this way, the computational and memory costs for RGA scale with the information content rather than the size of the calibration data. Our algorithm is coded in Julia and implemented in the MADS open-source high-performance computational framework (http://mads.lanl.gov). We apply our new inverse modeling method to invert for a synthetic transmissivity field. Compared to a standard geostatistical approach (GA), our method is more efficient when the number of observations is large. Most importantly, our method is capable of solving larger inverse problems than the standard GA and PCGA approaches. Therefore, our new model inversion method is a powerful tool for solving large-scale inverse problems. The method can be applied in any field and is not limited to hydrogeological applications such as the characterization of aquifer heterogeneity.

Results and Implications of a Problem-Solving Treatment Program for Obesity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahoney, B. K.; And Others

Data are from a large scale experimental study which was designed to evaluate a multimethod problem solving approach to obesity. Obese adult volunteers (N=90) were randomly assigned to three groups: maximal treatment, minimal treatment, and no treatment control. In the two treatment groups, subjects were exposed to bibliographic material and…

The Development of Complex Problem Solving in Adolescence: A Latent Growth Curve Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frischkorn, Gidon T.; Greiff, Samuel; Wüstenberg, Sascha

2014-01-01

Complex problem solving (CPS) as a cross-curricular competence has recently attracted more attention in educational psychology as indicated by its implementation in international educational large-scale assessments such as the Programme for International Student Assessment. However, research on the development of CPS is scarce, and the few…

Large-Scale Studies on the Transferability of General Problem-Solving Skills and the Pedagogic Potential of Physics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mashood, K. K.; Singh, Vijay A.

2013-01-01

Research suggests that problem-solving skills are transferable across domains. This claim, however, needs further empirical substantiation. We suggest correlation studies as a methodology for making preliminary inferences about transfer. The correlation of the physics performance of students with their performance in chemistry and mathematics in…

Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change: Quantification of Uncertainties (Alexander von Humboldt Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mujumdar, Pradeep P.

2014-05-01

Climate change results in regional hydrologic change. The three prominent signals of global climate change, viz., increase in global average temperatures, rise in sea levels and change in precipitation patterns convert into signals of regional hydrologic change in terms of modifications in water availability, evaporative water demand, hydrologic extremes of floods and droughts, water quality, salinity intrusion in coastal aquifers, groundwater recharge and other related phenomena. A major research focus in hydrologic sciences in recent years has been assessment of impacts of climate change at regional scales. An important research issue addressed in this context deals with responses of water fluxes on a catchment scale to the global climatic change. A commonly adopted methodology for assessing the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change is to use the climate projections provided by the General Circulation Models (GCMs) for specified emission scenarios in conjunction with the process-based hydrologic models to generate the corresponding hydrologic projections. The scaling problem arising because of the large spatial scales at which the GCMs operate compared to those required in distributed hydrologic models, and their inability to satisfactorily simulate the variables of interest to hydrology are addressed by downscaling the GCM simulations to hydrologic scales. Projections obtained with this procedure are burdened with a large uncertainty introduced by the choice of GCMs and emission scenarios, small samples of historical data against which the models are calibrated, downscaling methods used and other sources. Development of methodologies to quantify and reduce such uncertainties is a current area of research in hydrology. In this presentation, an overview of recent research carried out by the author's group on assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change addressing scale issues and quantification of uncertainties is provided. Methodologies developed with conditional random fields, Dempster-Shafer theory, possibility theory, imprecise probabilities and non-stationary extreme value theory are discussed. Specific applications on uncertainty quantification in impacts on streamflows, evaporative water demands, river water quality and urban flooding are presented. A brief discussion on detection and attribution of hydrologic change at river basin scales, contribution of landuse change and likely alterations in return levels of hydrologic extremes is also provided.

The quantum limit for gravitational-wave detectors and methods of circumventing it

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thorne, K. S.; Caves, C. M.; Sandberg, V. D.; Zimmermann, M.; Drever, R. W. P.

1979-01-01

The Heisenberg uncertainty principle prevents the monitoring of the complex amplitude of a mechanical oscillator more accurately than a certain limit value. This 'quantum limit' is a serious obstacle to the achievement of a 10 to the -21st gravitational-wave detection sensitivity. This paper examines the principles of the back-action evasion technique and finds that this technique may be able to overcome the problem of the quantum limit. Back-action evasion does not solve, however, other problems of detection, such as weak coupling, large amplifier noise, and large Nyquist noise.

Integrated fringe projection 3D scanning system for large-scale metrology based on laser tracker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Hui; Chen, Xiaobo; Zhou, Dan; Guo, Gen; Xi, Juntong

2017-10-01

Large scale components exist widely in advance manufacturing industry,3D profilometry plays a pivotal role for the quality control. This paper proposes a flexible, robust large-scale 3D scanning system by integrating a robot with a binocular structured light scanner and a laser tracker. The measurement principle and system construction of the integrated system are introduced. And a mathematical model is established for the global data fusion. Subsequently, a flexible and robust method and mechanism is introduced for the establishment of the end coordination system. Based on this method, a virtual robot noumenon is constructed for hand-eye calibration. And then the transformation matrix between end coordination system and world coordination system is solved. Validation experiment is implemented for verifying the proposed algorithms. Firstly, hand-eye transformation matrix is solved. Then a car body rear is measured for 16 times for the global data fusion algorithm verification. And the 3D shape of the rear is reconstructed successfully.

Experimental design for estimating unknown groundwater pumping using genetic algorithm and reduced order model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushijima, Timothy T.; Yeh, William W.-G.

2013-10-01

An optimal experimental design algorithm is developed to select locations for a network of observation wells that provide maximum information about unknown groundwater pumping in a confined, anisotropic aquifer. The design uses a maximal information criterion that chooses, among competing designs, the design that maximizes the sum of squared sensitivities while conforming to specified design constraints. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex and contains integer variables necessitating a combinatorial search. Given a realistic large-scale model, the size of the combinatorial search required can make the problem difficult, if not impossible, to solve using traditional mathematical programming techniques. Genetic algorithms (GAs) can be used to perform the global search; however, because a GA requires a large number of calls to a groundwater model, the formulated optimization problem still may be infeasible to solve. As a result, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is applied to the groundwater model to reduce its dimensionality. Then, the information matrix in the full model space can be searched without solving the full model. Results from a small-scale test case show identical optimal solutions among the GA, integer programming, and exhaustive search methods. This demonstrates the GA's ability to determine the optimal solution. In addition, the results show that a GA with POD model reduction is several orders of magnitude faster in finding the optimal solution than a GA using the full model. The proposed experimental design algorithm is applied to a realistic, two-dimensional, large-scale groundwater problem. The GA converged to a solution for this large-scale problem.

Multi-time Scale Joint Scheduling Method Considering the Grid of Renewable Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhijun, E.; Wang, Weichen; Cao, Jin; Wang, Xin; Kong, Xiangyu; Quan, Shuping

2018-01-01

Renewable new energy power generation prediction error like wind and light, brings difficulties to dispatch the power system. In this paper, a multi-time scale robust scheduling method is set to solve this problem. It reduces the impact of clean energy prediction bias to the power grid by using multi-time scale (day-ahead, intraday, real time) and coordinating the dispatching power output of various power supplies such as hydropower, thermal power, wind power, gas power and. The method adopts the robust scheduling method to ensure the robustness of the scheduling scheme. By calculating the cost of the abandon wind and the load, it transforms the robustness into the risk cost and optimizes the optimal uncertainty set for the smallest integrative costs. The validity of the method is verified by simulation.

Solving large scale traveling salesman problems by chaotic neurodynamics.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Mikio; Ikeguch, Tohru; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2002-03-01

We propose a novel approach for solving large scale traveling salesman problems (TSPs) by chaotic dynamics. First, we realize the tabu search on a neural network, by utilizing the refractory effects as the tabu effects. Then, we extend it to a chaotic neural network version. We propose two types of chaotic searching methods, which are based on two different tabu searches. While the first one requires neurons of the order of n2 for an n-city TSP, the second one requires only n neurons. Moreover, an automatic parameter tuning method of our chaotic neural network is presented for easy application to various problems. Last, we show that our method with n neurons is applicable to large TSPs such as an 85,900-city problem and exhibits better performance than the conventional stochastic searches and the tabu searches.

On the Accuracy of the Conjugation of High-Orbit Satellites with Small-Scale Regions in the Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safargaleev, V. V.; Safargaleeva, N. N.

2018-03-01

The degree of uncertainty that arises when mapping high-orbit satellites of the Cluster type into the ionosphere using three geomagnetic field models (T89, T98, and T01) has been estimated. Studies have shown that uncertainty is minimal in situations when a satellite in the daytime is above the equatorial plane of the magnetosphere at the distance of no more than 5 R E from the Earth's surface and is projected into the ionosphere of the northern hemisphere. In this case, the dimensions of the uncertainty region are about 50 km, and the arbitrariness of the choice of the model for projecting does not play a decisive role in organizing satellite support based on optical observations when studying such large-scale phenomena as, e.g., WTS, as well as heating experiments at the EISCAT heating facility for the artificial modification of the ionosphere and the generation of artificial fluctuations in the VLF band. In all other cases, the uncertainty in determining the position of the base of the field line on which the satellite is located is large, and additional information is required to correctly compare the satellite with the object in the ionosphere.

Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-01-01

Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting climate-mediated different sensitivities of modeled sugar cane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-06-01

Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugarcane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. The ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting different climate-mediated sensitivities of modeled sugarcane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

Fast Combinatorial Algorithm for the Solution of Linearly Constrained Least Squares Problems

DOEpatents

Van Benthem, Mark H.; Keenan, Michael R.

2008-11-11

A fast combinatorial algorithm can significantly reduce the computational burden when solving general equality and inequality constrained least squares problems with large numbers of observation vectors. The combinatorial algorithm provides a mathematically rigorous solution and operates at great speed by reorganizing the calculations to take advantage of the combinatorial nature of the problems to be solved. The combinatorial algorithm exploits the structure that exists in large-scale problems in order to minimize the number of arithmetic operations required to obtain a solution.

On the predictivity of pore-scale simulations: Estimating uncertainties with multilevel Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Icardi, Matteo; Boccardo, Gianluca; Tempone, Raúl

2016-09-01

A fast method with tunable accuracy is proposed to estimate errors and uncertainties in pore-scale and Digital Rock Physics (DRP) problems. The overall predictivity of these studies can be, in fact, hindered by many factors including sample heterogeneity, computational and imaging limitations, model inadequacy and not perfectly known physical parameters. The typical objective of pore-scale studies is the estimation of macroscopic effective parameters such as permeability, effective diffusivity and hydrodynamic dispersion. However, these are often non-deterministic quantities (i.e., results obtained for specific pore-scale sample and setup are not totally reproducible by another ;equivalent; sample and setup). The stochastic nature can arise due to the multi-scale heterogeneity, the computational and experimental limitations in considering large samples, and the complexity of the physical models. These approximations, in fact, introduce an error that, being dependent on a large number of complex factors, can be modeled as random. We propose a general simulation tool, based on multilevel Monte Carlo, that can reduce drastically the computational cost needed for computing accurate statistics of effective parameters and other quantities of interest, under any of these random errors. This is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to include Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in pore-scale physics and simulation. The method can also provide estimates of the discretization error and it is tested on three-dimensional transport problems in heterogeneous materials, where the sampling procedure is done by generation algorithms able to reproduce realistic consolidated and unconsolidated random sphere and ellipsoid packings and arrangements. A totally automatic workflow is developed in an open-source code [1], that include rigid body physics and random packing algorithms, unstructured mesh discretization, finite volume solvers, extrapolation and post-processing techniques. The proposed method can be efficiently used in many porous media applications for problems such as stochastic homogenization/upscaling, propagation of uncertainty from microscopic fluid and rock properties to macro-scale parameters, robust estimation of Representative Elementary Volume size for arbitrary physics.

Climate change adaptation and Integrated Water Resource Management in the water sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Fulco; van Slobbe, Erik; Cofino, Wim

2014-10-01

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) was introduced in 1980s to better optimise water uses between different water demanding sectors. However, since it was introduced water systems have become more complicated due to changes in the global water cycle as a result of climate change. The realization that climate change will have a significant impact on water availability and flood risks has driven research and policy making on adaptation. This paper discusses the main similarities and differences between climate change adaptation and IWRM. The main difference between the two is the focus on current and historic issues of IWRM compared to the (long-term) future focus of adaptation. One of the main problems of implementing climate change adaptation is the large uncertainties in future projections. Two completely different approaches to adaptation have been developed in response to these large uncertainties. A top-down approach based on large scale biophysical impacts analyses focussing on quantifying and minimizing uncertainty by using a large range of scenarios and different climate and impact models. The main problem with this approach is the propagation of uncertainties within the modelling chain. The opposite is the bottom up approach which basically ignores uncertainty. It focusses on reducing vulnerabilities, often at local scale, by developing resilient water systems. Both these approaches however are unsuitable for integrating into water management. The bottom up approach focuses too much on socio-economic vulnerability and too little on developing (technical) solutions. The top-down approach often results in an “explosion” of uncertainty and therefore complicates decision making. A more promising direction of adaptation would be a risk based approach. Future research should further develop and test an approach which starts with developing adaptation strategies based on current and future risks. These strategies should then be evaluated using a range of future scenarios in order to develop robust adaptation measures and strategies.

Trans-dimensional Bayesian inversion of airborne electromagnetic data for 2D conductivity profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, Rhys; Brodie, Ross C.; Sambridge, Malcolm

2018-02-01

This paper presents the application of a novel trans-dimensional sampling approach to a time domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) inverse problem to solve for plausible conductivities of the subsurface. Geophysical inverse field problems, such as time domain AEM, are well known to have a large degree of non-uniqueness. Common least-squares optimisation approaches fail to take this into account and provide a single solution with linearised estimates of uncertainty that can result in overly optimistic appraisal of the conductivity of the subsurface. In this new non-linear approach, the spatial complexity of a 2D profile is controlled directly by the data. By examining an ensemble of proposed conductivity profiles it accommodates non-uniqueness and provides more robust estimates of uncertainties.

Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

2010-11-01

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940

Robust large-scale parallel nonlinear solvers for simulations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bader, Brett William; Pawlowski, Roger Patrick; Kolda, Tamara Gibson

2005-11-01

This report documents research to develop robust and efficient solution techniques for solving large-scale systems of nonlinear equations. The most widely used method for solving systems of nonlinear equations is Newton's method. While much research has been devoted to augmenting Newton-based solvers (usually with globalization techniques), little has been devoted to exploring the application of different models. Our research has been directed at evaluating techniques using different models than Newton's method: a lower order model, Broyden's method, and a higher order model, the tensor method. We have developed large-scale versions of each of these models and have demonstrated their usemore » in important applications at Sandia. Broyden's method replaces the Jacobian with an approximation, allowing codes that cannot evaluate a Jacobian or have an inaccurate Jacobian to converge to a solution. Limited-memory methods, which have been successful in optimization, allow us to extend this approach to large-scale problems. We compare the robustness and efficiency of Newton's method, modified Newton's method, Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method, and our limited-memory Broyden method. Comparisons are carried out for large-scale applications of fluid flow simulations and electronic circuit simulations. Results show that, in cases where the Jacobian was inaccurate or could not be computed, Broyden's method converged in some cases where Newton's method failed to converge. We identify conditions where Broyden's method can be more efficient than Newton's method. We also present modifications to a large-scale tensor method, originally proposed by Bouaricha, for greater efficiency, better robustness, and wider applicability. Tensor methods are an alternative to Newton-based methods and are based on computing a step based on a local quadratic model rather than a linear model. The advantage of Bouaricha's method is that it can use any existing linear solver, which makes it simple to write and easily portable. However, the method usually takes twice as long to solve as Newton-GMRES on general problems because it solves two linear systems at each iteration. In this paper, we discuss modifications to Bouaricha's method for a practical implementation, including a special globalization technique and other modifications for greater efficiency. We present numerical results showing computational advantages over Newton-GMRES on some realistic problems. We further discuss a new approach for dealing with singular (or ill-conditioned) matrices. In particular, we modify an algorithm for identifying a turning point so that an increasingly ill-conditioned Jacobian does not prevent convergence.« less

Optimal Multi-scale Demand-side Management for Continuous Power-Intensive Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, Sumit

With the advent of deregulation in electricity markets and an increasing share of intermittent power generation sources, the profitability of industrial consumers that operate power-intensive processes has become directly linked to the variability in energy prices. Thus, for industrial consumers that are able to adjust to the fluctuations, time-sensitive electricity prices (as part of so-called Demand-Side Management (DSM) in the smart grid) offer potential economical incentives. In this thesis, we introduce optimization models and decomposition strategies for the multi-scale Demand-Side Management of continuous power-intensive processes. On an operational level, we derive a mode formulation for scheduling under time-sensitive electricity prices. The formulation is applied to air separation plants and cement plants to minimize the operating cost. We also describe how a mode formulation can be used for industrial combined heat and power plants that are co-located at integrated chemical sites to increase operating profit by adjusting their steam and electricity production according to their inherent flexibility. Furthermore, a robust optimization formulation is developed to address the uncertainty in electricity prices by accounting for correlations and multiple ranges in the realization of the random variables. On a strategic level, we introduce a multi-scale model that provides an understanding of the value of flexibility of the current plant configuration and the value of additional flexibility in terms of retrofits for Demand-Side Management under product demand uncertainty. The integration of multiple time scales leads to large-scale two-stage stochastic programming problems, for which we need to apply decomposition strategies in order to obtain a good solution within a reasonable amount of time. Hence, we describe two decomposition schemes that can be applied to solve two-stage stochastic programming problems: First, a hybrid bi-level decomposition scheme with novel Lagrangean-type and subset-type cuts to strengthen the relaxation. Second, an enhanced cross-decomposition scheme that integrates Benders decomposition and Lagrangean decomposition on a scenario basis. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our developed methodology, we provide several industrial case studies throughout the thesis.

Performance of parallel computation using CUDA for solving the one-dimensional elasticity equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmawan, J. B. B.; Mungkasi, S.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the performance of parallel computation in solving the one-dimensional elasticity equations. Elasticity equations are usually implemented in engineering science. Solving these equations fast and efficiently is desired. Therefore, we propose the use of parallel computation. Our parallel computation uses CUDA of the NVIDIA. Our research results show that parallel computation using CUDA has a great advantage and is powerful when the computation is of large scale.

Designs for Operationalizing Collaborative Problem Solving for Automated Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scoular, Claire; Care, Esther; Hesse, Friedrich W.

2017-01-01

Collaborative problem solving is a complex skill set that draws on social and cognitive factors. The construct remains in its infancy due to lack of empirical evidence that can be drawn upon for validation. The differences and similarities between two large-scale initiatives that reflect this state of the art, in terms of underlying assumptions…

VET Workers' Problem-Solving Skills in Technology-Rich Environments: European Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hämäläinen, Raija; Cincinnato, Sebastiano; Malin, Antero; De Wever, Bram

2014-01-01

The European workplace is challenging VET adults' problem-solving skills in technology-rich environments (TREs). So far, no international large-scale assessment data has been available for VET. The PIAAC data comprise the most comprehensive source of information on adults' skills to date. The present study (N = 50 369) focuses on gaining insight…

Complex Problem Solving in Educational Contexts--Something beyond "g": Concept, Assessment, Measurement Invariance, and Construct Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greiff, Samuel; Wustenberg, Sascha; Molnar, Gyongyver; Fischer, Andreas; Funke, Joachim; Csapo, Beno

2013-01-01

Innovative assessments of cross-curricular competencies such as complex problem solving (CPS) have currently received considerable attention in large-scale educational studies. This study investigated the nature of CPS by applying a state-of-the-art approach to assess CPS in high school. We analyzed whether two processes derived from cognitive…

Assessment of Complex Problem Solving: What We Know and What We Don't Know

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herde, Christoph Nils; Wüstenberg, Sascha; Greiff, Samuel

2016-01-01

Complex Problem Solving (CPS) is seen as a cross-curricular 21st century skill that has attracted interest in large-scale-assessments. In the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2012, CPS was assessed all over the world to gain information on students' skills to acquire and apply knowledge while dealing with nontransparent…

Airborne Sun Photometer Measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth during SOLVE II: Comparison with SAGE III and POAM III Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, P.; Livingston, J.; Schmid, B.; Eilers, J.; Kolyer, R.; Redemann, J.; Yee, J.-H.; Trepte, C.; Thomason, L.; Zawodny, J.

2003-01-01

The 14-channel NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-14) was operated aboard the NASA DC-8 during the Second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II) and obtained successful measurements during the sunlit segments of eight science flights. These included six flights out of Kiruna, Sweden, one flight out of NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC), and the Kiruna-DFRC return transit flight. Values of spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD), columnar ozone and columnar water vapor have been derived from the AATS-14 measurements. In this paper, we focus on AATS-14 AOD data. In particular, we compare AATS-14 AOD spectra with temporally and spatially near-coincident measurements by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III (POAM III) satellite sensors. We examine the effect on retrieved AOD of uncertainties in relative optical airmass (the ratio of AOD along the instrument-to-sun slant path to that along the vertical path) at large solar zenith angles. Airmass uncertainties result fiom uncertainties in requisite assumed vertical profiles of aerosol extinction due to inhomogeneity along the viewing path or simply to lack of available data. We also compare AATS-14 slant path solar transmission measurements with coincident measurements acquired from the DC-8 by the NASA Langley Research Center Gas and Aerosol Measurement Sensor (GAMS).

Past and present cosmic structure in the SDSS DR7 main sample

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jasche, J.; Leclercq, F.; Wandelt, B.D., E-mail: jasche@iap.fr, E-mail: florent.leclercq@polytechnique.org, E-mail: wandelt@iap.fr

2015-01-01

We present a chrono-cosmography project, aiming at the inference of the four dimensional formation history of the observed large scale structure from its origin to the present epoch. To do so, we perform a full-scale Bayesian analysis of the northern galactic cap of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 main galaxy sample, relying on a fully probabilistic, physical model of the non-linearly evolved density field. Besides inferring initial conditions from observations, our methodology naturally and accurately reconstructs non-linear features at the present epoch, such as walls and filaments, corresponding to high-order correlation functions generated by late-time structuremore » formation. Our inference framework self-consistently accounts for typical observational systematic and statistical uncertainties such as noise, survey geometry and selection effects. We further account for luminosity dependent galaxy biases and automatic noise calibration within a fully Bayesian approach. As a result, this analysis provides highly-detailed and accurate reconstructions of the present density field on scales larger than ∼ 3 Mpc/h, constrained by SDSS observations. This approach also leads to the first quantitative inference of plausible formation histories of the dynamic large scale structure underlying the observed galaxy distribution. The results described in this work constitute the first full Bayesian non-linear analysis of the cosmic large scale structure with the demonstrated capability of uncertainty quantification. Some of these results will be made publicly available along with this work. The level of detail of inferred results and the high degree of control on observational uncertainties pave the path towards high precision chrono-cosmography, the subject of simultaneously studying the dynamics and the morphology of the inhomogeneous Universe.« less

Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-05-01

Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB).In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

A Review On Accuracy and Uncertainty of Spatial Data and Analyses with special reference to Urban and Hydrological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devendran, A. A.; Lakshmanan, G.

2014-11-01

Data quality for GIS processing and analysis is becoming an increased concern due to the accelerated application of GIS technology for problem solving and decision making roles. Uncertainty in the geographic representation of the real world arises as these representations are incomplete. Identification of the sources of these uncertainties and the ways in which they operate in GIS based representations become crucial in any spatial data representation and geospatial analysis applied to any field of application. This paper reviews the articles on the various components of spatial data quality and various uncertainties inherent in them and special focus is paid to two fields of application such as Urban Simulation and Hydrological Modelling. Urban growth is a complicated process involving the spatio-temporal changes of all socio-economic and physical components at different scales. Cellular Automata (CA) model is one of the simulation models, which randomly selects potential cells for urbanisation and the transition rules evaluate the properties of the cell and its neighbour. Uncertainty arising from CA modelling is assessed mainly using sensitivity analysis including Monte Carlo simulation method. Likewise, the importance of hydrological uncertainty analysis has been emphasized in recent years and there is an urgent need to incorporate uncertainty estimation into water resources assessment procedures. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a continuous time watershed model to evaluate various impacts of land use management and climate on hydrology and water quality. Hydrological model uncertainties using SWAT model are dealt primarily by Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method.

PetIGA: A framework for high-performance isogeometric analysis

DOE PAGES

Dalcin, Lisandro; Collier, Nathaniel; Vignal, Philippe; ...

2016-05-25

We present PetIGA, a code framework to approximate the solution of partial differential equations using isogeometric analysis. PetIGA can be used to assemble matrices and vectors which come from a Galerkin weak form, discretized with Non-Uniform Rational B-spline basis functions. We base our framework on PETSc, a high-performance library for the scalable solution of partial differential equations, which simplifies the development of large-scale scientific codes, provides a rich environment for prototyping, and separates parallelism from algorithm choice. We describe the implementation of PetIGA, and exemplify its use by solving a model nonlinear problem. To illustrate the robustness and flexibility ofmore » PetIGA, we solve some challenging nonlinear partial differential equations that include problems in both solid and fluid mechanics. Lastly, we show strong scaling results on up to 4096 cores, which confirm the suitability of PetIGA for large scale simulations.« less

Integrating biomass quality variability in stochastic supply chain modeling and optimization for large-scale biofuel production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castillo-Villar, Krystel K.; Eksioglu, Sandra; Taherkhorsandi, Milad

The production of biofuels using second-generation feedstocks has been recognized as an important alternative source of sustainable energy and its demand is expected to increase due to regulations such as the Renewable Fuel Standard. However, the pathway to biofuel industry maturity faces unique, unaddressed challenges. Here, to address this challenges, this article presents an optimization model which quantifies and controls the impact of biomass quality variability on supply chain related decisions and technology selection. We propose a two-stage stochastic programming model and associated efficient solution procedures for solving large-scale problems to (1) better represent the random nature of the biomassmore » quality (defined by moisture and ash contents) in supply chain modeling, and (2) assess the impact of these uncertainties on the supply chain design and planning. The proposed model is then applied to a case study in the state of Tennessee. Results show that high moisture and ash contents negatively impact the unit delivery cost since poor biomass quality requires the addition of quality control activities. Experimental results indicate that supply chain cost could increase as much as 27%–31% when biomass quality is poor. We assess the impact of the biomass quality on the topological supply chain. Our case study indicates that biomass quality impacts supply chain costs; thus, it is important to consider the impact of biomass quality in supply chain design and management decisions.« less

Integrating biomass quality variability in stochastic supply chain modeling and optimization for large-scale biofuel production

DOE PAGES

Castillo-Villar, Krystel K.; Eksioglu, Sandra; Taherkhorsandi, Milad

2017-02-20

The production of biofuels using second-generation feedstocks has been recognized as an important alternative source of sustainable energy and its demand is expected to increase due to regulations such as the Renewable Fuel Standard. However, the pathway to biofuel industry maturity faces unique, unaddressed challenges. Here, to address this challenges, this article presents an optimization model which quantifies and controls the impact of biomass quality variability on supply chain related decisions and technology selection. We propose a two-stage stochastic programming model and associated efficient solution procedures for solving large-scale problems to (1) better represent the random nature of the biomassmore » quality (defined by moisture and ash contents) in supply chain modeling, and (2) assess the impact of these uncertainties on the supply chain design and planning. The proposed model is then applied to a case study in the state of Tennessee. Results show that high moisture and ash contents negatively impact the unit delivery cost since poor biomass quality requires the addition of quality control activities. Experimental results indicate that supply chain cost could increase as much as 27%–31% when biomass quality is poor. We assess the impact of the biomass quality on the topological supply chain. Our case study indicates that biomass quality impacts supply chain costs; thus, it is important to consider the impact of biomass quality in supply chain design and management decisions.« less

A Monte-Carlo game theoretic approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madani, Kaveh; Lund, Jay R.

2011-05-01

Game theory provides a useful framework for studying Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems. This paper suggests modeling Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems as strategic games and solving them using non-cooperative game theory concepts. The suggested method can be used to prescribe non-dominated solutions and also can be used as a method to predict the outcome of a decision making problem. Non-cooperative stability definitions for solving the games allow consideration of non-cooperative behaviors, often neglected by other methods which assume perfect cooperation among decision makers. To deal with the uncertainty in input variables a Monte-Carlo Game Theory (MCGT) approach is suggested which maps the stochastic problem into many deterministic strategic games. The games are solved using non-cooperative stability definitions and the results include possible effects of uncertainty in input variables on outcomes. The method can handle multi-criteria multi-decision-maker problems with uncertainty. The suggested method does not require criteria weighting, developing a compound decision objective, and accurate quantitative (cardinal) information as it simplifies the decision analysis by solving problems based on qualitative (ordinal) information, reducing the computational burden substantially. The MCGT method is applied to analyze California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta problem. The suggested method provides insights, identifies non-dominated alternatives, and predicts likely decision outcomes.

Generalized Uncertainty Principle and Parikh-Wilczek Tunneling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehdipour, S. Hamid

We investigate the modifications of the Hawking radiation by the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP) and the tunneling process. By using the GUP-corrected de Broglie wavelength, the squeezing of the fundamental momentum cell, and consequently a GUP-corrected energy, we find the nonthermal effects which lead to a nonzero statistical correlation function between probabilities of tunneling of two massive particles with different energies. Then the recovery of part of the information from the black hole radiation is feasible. From the other point of view, the inclusion of the effects of quantum gravity as the GUP expression can halt the evaporation process, so that a stable black hole remnant is left behind, including the other part of the black hole information content. Therefore, these features of the Planck-scale corrections may solve the information problem in black hole evaporation.

A dynamic multi-scale Markov model based methodology for remaining life prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Jihong; Guo, Chaozhong; Wang, Xing

2011-05-01

The ability to accurately predict the remaining life of partially degraded components is crucial in prognostics. In this paper, a performance degradation index is designed using multi-feature fusion techniques to represent deterioration severities of facilities. Based on this indicator, an improved Markov model is proposed for remaining life prediction. Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) algorithm is employed to perform state division for Markov model in order to avoid the uncertainty of state division caused by the hard division approach. Considering the influence of both historical and real time data, a dynamic prediction method is introduced into Markov model by a weighted coefficient. Multi-scale theory is employed to solve the state division problem of multi-sample prediction. Consequently, a dynamic multi-scale Markov model is constructed. An experiment is designed based on a Bently-RK4 rotor testbed to validate the dynamic multi-scale Markov model, experimental results illustrate the effectiveness of the methodology.

Uncertainty in the visibility mask of a survey and its effects on the clustering of biased tracers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Colavincenzo, M.; Monaco, P.; Borgani, S.

The forecasted accuracy of upcoming surveys of large-scale structure cannot be achieved without a proper quantification of the error induced by foreground removal (or other systematics like 0-point photometry offset). Because these errors are highly correlated on the sky, their influence is expected to be especially important at very large scales, at and beyond the first Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation (BAO). In this work we quantify how the uncertainty in the visibility mask of a survey, that gives the survey depth in a specific sky area, influences the measured power spectrum of a sample of tracers of the density field andmore » its covariance matrix. We start from a very large set of 10,000 catalogs of dark matter (DM) halos in periodic cosmological boxes, produced with the PINOCCHIO approximate method. To make an analytic approach feasible, we assume luminosity-independent halo bias and an idealized geometry for the visibility mask, that is constant in square tiles of physical length l ; this should be interpreted as the projection, at the observation redshift, of the angular correlation scale of the foreground residuals. We find that the power spectrum of these biased tracers can be expressed as the sum of a cosmological term, a mask term and a term involving their convolution. The mask and convolution terms scale like P ∝ l {sup 2}σ {sub A} {sup 2}, where σ {sub A} {sup 2} is the variance of the uncertainty on the visibility mask. With l = 30−100 Mpc/ h and σ {sub A} = 5−20%, the mask term can be significant at k ∼ 0.01−0.1 h /Mpc, and the convolution term can amount to ∼ 1−10% of the total. The influence of mask uncertainty on power spectrum covariance is more complicated: the coupling of the convolution term with the other two gives rise to several mixed terms, that we quantify by difference using the mock catalogs. These are found to be of the same order of the mask covariance, and to introduce non-diagonal terms at large scales. As a consequence, the power spectrum covariance matrix cannot be expressed as the sum of a cosmological and of a mask term. More realistic settings (realistic foregrounds, luminosity-dependent bias) make the analytical approach not feasible, and the problem requires on the one hand usage of extended sets of mock catalogs, on the other hand detailed knowledge of the correlations among errors in the visibility masks. Our results lie down the theoretical bases to quantify the impact that uncertainties in the mask calibration have on the derivation of cosmological constraints from large spectroscopic surveys.« less

Developing large-scale forcing data for single-column and cloud-resolving models from the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment

DOE PAGES

Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.; Zhang, Minghua; ...

2006-10-05

[1] This study represents an effort to develop Single-Column Model (SCM) and Cloud-Resolving Model large-scale forcing data from a sounding array in the high latitudes. An objective variational analysis approach is used to process data collected from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), which was conducted over the North Slope of Alaska in October 2004. In this method the observed surface and top of atmosphere measurements are used as constraints to adjust the sounding data from M-PACE in order to conserve column-integrated mass, heat, moisture, and momentum. Several important technical and scientific issues related tomore » the data analysis are discussed. It is shown that the analyzed data reasonably describe the dynamic and thermodynamic features of the Arctic cloud systems observed during M-PACE. Uncertainties in the analyzed forcing fields are roughly estimated by examining the sensitivity of those fields to uncertainties in the upper-air data and surface constraints that are used in the analysis. Impacts of the uncertainties in the analyzed forcing data on SCM simulations are discussed. Results from the SCM tests indicate that the bulk features of the observed Arctic cloud systems can be captured qualitatively well using the forcing data derived in this study, and major model errors can be detected despite the uncertainties that exist in the forcing data as illustrated by the sensitivity tests. Lastly, the possibility of using the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis data to derive the large-scale forcing over the Arctic region is explored.« less

Isospin symmetry breaking and large-scale shell-model calculations with the Sakurai-Sugiura method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizusaki, Takahiro; Kaneko, Kazunari; Sun, Yang; Tazaki, Shigeru

2015-05-01

Recently isospin symmetry breaking for mass 60-70 region has been investigated based on large-scale shell-model calculations in terms of mirror energy differences (MED), Coulomb energy differences (CED) and triplet energy differences (TED). Behind these investigations, we have encountered a subtle problem in numerical calculations for odd-odd N = Z nuclei with large-scale shell-model calculations. Here we focus on how to solve this subtle problem by the Sakurai-Sugiura (SS) method, which has been recently proposed as a new diagonalization method and has been successfully applied to nuclear shell-model calculations.

COLAcode: COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tassev, Svetlin V.

2016-02-01

COLAcode is a serial particle mesh-based N-body code illustrating the COLA (COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration) method; it solves for Large Scale Structure (LSS) in a frame that is comoving with observers following trajectories calculated in Lagrangian Perturbation Theory (LPT). It differs from standard N-body code by trading accuracy at small-scales to gain computational speed without sacrificing accuracy at large scales. This is useful for generating large ensembles of accurate mock halo catalogs required to study galaxy clustering and weak lensing; such catalogs are needed to perform detailed error analysis for ongoing and future surveys of LSS.

Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations

PubMed Central

Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A.; Girolami, Mark

2015-01-01

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations. PMID:26346321

Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.

PubMed

Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark

2015-07-08

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

Quantifying the Influence of Dynamics Across Scales on Regional Climate Uncertainty in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenson, Naomi L.

Uncertainties in climate projections at the regional scale are inevitably larger than those for global mean quantities. Here, focusing on western North American regional climate, several approaches are taken to quantifying uncertainties starting with the output of global climate model projections. Internal variance is found to be an important component of the projection uncertainty up and down the west coast. To quantify internal variance and other projection uncertainties in existing climate models, we evaluate different ensemble configurations. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble of opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter offers the advantage of also producing estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that climate projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible. We then conduct a small single-model ensemble of simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales with physics from the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (MPAS-CAM5) and prescribed historical sea surface temperatures. In the global variable resolution domain, the finest resolution (at 30 km) is in our region of interest over western North America and upwind over the northeast Pacific. In the finer-scale region, extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers (ARs) is connected to tendencies in seasonal snowpack in mountains of the Northwest United States and California. In most of the Cascade Mountains, winters with more AR days are associated with less snowpack, in contrast to the northern Rockies and California's Sierra Nevadas. In snowpack observations and reanalysis of the atmospheric circulation, we find similar relationships between frequency of AR events and winter season snowpack in the western United States. In spring, however, there is not a clear relationship between number of AR days and seasonal mean snowpack across the model ensemble, so caution is urged in interpreting the historical record in the spring season. Finally, the representation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--an important source of interannual climate predictability in some regions--is explored in a large single-model ensemble using ensemble Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to find modes of variance across the entire ensemble at once. The leading EOF is ENSO. The principal components (PCs) of the next three EOFs exhibit a lead-lag relationship with the ENSO signal captured in the first PC. The second PC, with most of its variance in the summer season, is the most strongly cross-correlated with the first. This approach offers insight into how the model considered represents this important atmosphere-ocean interaction. Taken together these varied approaches quantify the implications of climate projections regionally, identify processes that make snowpack water resources vulnerable, and seek insight into how to better simulate the large-scale climate modes controlling regional variability.

Improving Air Quality (and Weather) Predictions using Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques Applied to Coupled Models during KORUS-AQ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, G. R.; Saide, P. E.; Gao, M.; Streets, D. G.; Kim, J.; Woo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Ambient aerosols are important air pollutants with direct impacts on human health and on the Earth's weather and climate systems through their interactions with radiation and clouds. Their role is dependent on their distributions of size, number, phase and composition, which vary significantly in space and time. There remain large uncertainties in simulated aerosol distributions due to uncertainties in emission estimates and in chemical and physical processes associated with their formation and removal. These uncertainties lead to large uncertainties in weather and air quality predictions and in estimates of health and climate change impacts. Despite these uncertainties and challenges, regional-scale coupled chemistry-meteorological models such as WRF-Chem have significant capabilities in predicting aerosol distributions and explaining aerosol-weather interactions. We explore the hypothesis that new advances in on-line, coupled atmospheric chemistry/meteorological models, and new emission inversion and data assimilation techniques applicable to such coupled models, can be applied in innovative ways using current and evolving observation systems to improve predictions of aerosol distributions at regional scales. We investigate the impacts of assimilating AOD from geostationary satellite (GOCI) and surface PM2.5 measurements on predictions of AOD and PM in Korea during KORUS-AQ through a series of experiments. The results suggest assimilating datasets from multiple platforms can improve the predictions of aerosol temporal and spatial distributions.

Cross-borehole flowmeter tests for transient heads in heterogeneous aquifers.

PubMed

Le Borgne, Tanguy; Paillet, Frederick; Bour, Olivier; Caudal, Jean-Pierre

2006-01-01

Cross-borehole flowmeter tests have been proposed as an efficient method to investigate preferential flowpaths in heterogeneous aquifers, which is a major task in the characterization of fractured aquifers. Cross-borehole flowmeter tests are based on the idea that changing the pumping conditions in a given aquifer will modify the hydraulic head distribution in large-scale flowpaths, producing measurable changes in the vertical flow profiles in observation boreholes. However, inversion of flow measurements to derive flowpath geometry and connectivity and to characterize their hydraulic properties is still a subject of research. In this study, we propose a framework for cross-borehole flowmeter test interpretation that is based on a two-scale conceptual model: discrete fractures at the borehole scale and zones of interconnected fractures at the aquifer scale. We propose that the two problems may be solved independently. The first inverse problem consists of estimating the hydraulic head variations that drive the transient borehole flow observed in the cross-borehole flowmeter experiments. The second inverse problem is related to estimating the geometry and hydraulic properties of large-scale flowpaths in the region between pumping and observation wells that are compatible with the head variations deduced from the first problem. To solve the borehole-scale problem, we treat the transient flow data as a series of quasi-steady flow conditions and solve for the hydraulic head changes in individual fractures required to produce these data. The consistency of the method is verified using field experiments performed in a fractured-rock aquifer.

International Intercomparison of Regular Transmittance Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckerle, K. L.; Sutter, E.; Freeman, G. H. C.; Andor, G.; Fillinger, L.

1990-01-01

An intercomparison of the regular spectral transmittance scales of NIST, Gaithersburg, MD (USA); PTB, Braunschweig (FRG); NPL, Teddington, Middlesex (UK); and OMH, Budapest (H) was accomplished using three sets of neutral glass filters with transmittances ranging from approximately 0.92 to 0.001. The difference between the results from the reference spectrophotometers of the laboratories was generally smaller than the total uncertainty of the interchange. The relative total uncertainty ranges from 0.05% to 0.75% for transmittances from 0.92 to 0.001. The sample-induced error was large - contributing 40% or more of the total except in a few cases.

Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles.

PubMed

Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang

2016-01-01

Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales.

Solving the puzzle of discrepant quasar variability on monthly time-scales implied by SDSS and CRTS data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suberlak, Krzysztof; Ivezić, Željko; MacLeod, Chelsea L.; Graham, Matthew; Sesar, Branimir

2017-12-01

We present an improved photometric error analysis for the 7 100 CRTS (Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey) optical light curves for quasars from the SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey) Stripe 82 catalogue. The SDSS imaging survey has provided a time-resolved photometric data set, which greatly improved our understanding of the quasar optical continuum variability: Data for monthly and longer time-scales are consistent with a damped random walk (DRW). Recently, newer data obtained by CRTS provided puzzling evidence for enhanced variability, compared to SDSS results, on monthly time-scales. Quantitatively, SDSS results predict about 0.06 mag root-mean-square (rms) variability for monthly time-scales, while CRTS data show about a factor of 2 larger rms, for spectroscopically confirmed SDSS quasars. Our analysis has successfully resolved this discrepancy as due to slightly underestimated photometric uncertainties from the CRTS image processing pipelines. As a result, the correction for observational noise is too small and the implied quasar variability is too large. The CRTS photometric error correction factors, derived from detailed analysis of non-variable SDSS standard stars that were re-observed by CRTS, are about 20-30 per cent, and result in reconciling quasar variability behaviour implied by the CRTS data with earlier SDSS results. An additional analysis based on independent light curve data for the same objects obtained by the Palomar Transient Factory provides further support for this conclusion. In summary, the quasar variability constraints on weekly and monthly time-scales from SDSS, CRTS and PTF surveys are mutually compatible, as well as consistent with DRW model.

Development and Testing of Neutron Cross Section Covariance Data for SCALE 6.2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marshall, William BJ J; Williams, Mark L; Wiarda, Dorothea

2015-01-01

Neutron cross-section covariance data are essential for many sensitivity/uncertainty and uncertainty quantification assessments performed both within the TSUNAMI suite and more broadly throughout the SCALE code system. The release of ENDF/B-VII.1 included a more complete set of neutron cross-section covariance data: these data form the basis for a new cross-section covariance library to be released in SCALE 6.2. A range of testing is conducted to investigate the properties of these covariance data and ensure that the data are reasonable. These tests include examination of the uncertainty in critical experiment benchmark model k eff values due to nuclear data uncertainties, asmore » well as similarity assessments of irradiated pressurized water reactor (PWR) and boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel with suites of critical experiments. The contents of the new covariance library, the testing performed, and the behavior of the new covariance data are described in this paper. The neutron cross-section covariances can be combined with a sensitivity data file generated using the TSUNAMI suite of codes within SCALE to determine the uncertainty in system k eff caused by nuclear data uncertainties. The Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID) maintained at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) contains over 400 critical experiment benchmark models, and sensitivity data are generated for each of these models. The nuclear data uncertainty in k eff is generated for each experiment, and the resulting uncertainties are tabulated and compared to the differences in measured and calculated results. The magnitude of the uncertainty for categories of nuclides (such as actinides, fission products, and structural materials) is calculated for irradiated PWR and BWR fuel to quantify the effect of covariance library changes between the SCALE 6.1 and 6.2 libraries. One of the primary applications of sensitivity/uncertainty methods within SCALE is the assessment of similarities between benchmark experiments and safety applications. This is described by a c k value for each experiment with each application. Several studies have analyzed typical c k values for a range of critical experiments compared with hypothetical irradiated fuel applications. The c k value is sensitive to the cross-section covariance data because the contribution of each nuclide is influenced by its uncertainty; large uncertainties indicate more likely bias sources and are thus given more weight. Changes in c k values resulting from different covariance data can be used to examine and assess underlying data changes. These comparisons are performed for PWR and BWR fuel in storage and transportation systems.« less

NR-code: Nonlinear reconstruction code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yu; Pen, Ue-Li; Zhu, Hong-Ming

2018-04-01

NR-code applies nonlinear reconstruction to the dark matter density field in redshift space and solves for the nonlinear mapping from the initial Lagrangian positions to the final redshift space positions; this reverses the large-scale bulk flows and improves the precision measurement of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale.

Large-Angular-Scale Clustering as a Clue to the Source of UHECRs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlind, Andreas A.; Farrar, Glennys R.

We explore what can be learned about the sources of UHECRs from their large-angular-scale clustering (referred to as their "bias" by the cosmology community). Exploiting the clustering on large scales has the advantage over small-scale correlations of being insensitive to uncertainties in source direction from magnetic smearing or measurement error. In a Cold Dark Matter cosmology, the amplitude of large-scale clustering depends on the mass of the system, with more massive systems such as galaxy clusters clustering more strongly than less massive systems such as ordinary galaxies or AGN. Therefore, studying the large-scale clustering of UHECRs can help determine a mass scale for their sources, given the assumption that their redshift depth is as expected from the GZK cutoff. We investigate the constraining power of a given UHECR sample as a function of its cutoff energy and number of events. We show that current and future samples should be able to distinguish between the cases of their sources being galaxy clusters, ordinary galaxies, or sources that are uncorrelated with the large-scale structure of the universe.

Comparison of an algebraic multigrid algorithm to two iterative solvers used for modeling ground water flow and transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Detwiler, R.L.; Mehl, S.; Rajaram, H.; Cheung, W.W.

2002-01-01

Numerical solution of large-scale ground water flow and transport problems is often constrained by the convergence behavior of the iterative solvers used to solve the resulting systems of equations. We demonstrate the ability of an algebraic multigrid algorithm (AMG) to efficiently solve the large, sparse systems of equations that result from computational models of ground water flow and transport in large and complex domains. Unlike geometric multigrid methods, this algorithm is applicable to problems in complex flow geometries, such as those encountered in pore-scale modeling of two-phase flow and transport. We integrated AMG into MODFLOW 2000 to compare two- and three-dimensional flow simulations using AMG to simulations using PCG2, a preconditioned conjugate gradient solver that uses the modified incomplete Cholesky preconditioner and is included with MODFLOW 2000. CPU times required for convergence with AMG were up to 140 times faster than those for PCG2. The cost of this increased speed was up to a nine-fold increase in required random access memory (RAM) for the three-dimensional problems and up to a four-fold increase in required RAM for the two-dimensional problems. We also compared two-dimensional numerical simulations of steady-state transport using AMG and the generalized minimum residual method with an incomplete LU-decomposition preconditioner. For these transport simulations, AMG yielded increased speeds of up to 17 times with only a 20% increase in required RAM. The ability of AMG to solve flow and transport problems in large, complex flow systems and its ready availability make it an ideal solver for use in both field-scale and pore-scale modeling.

Algorithm and Application of Gcp-Independent Block Adjustment for Super Large-Scale Domestic High Resolution Optical Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y. S.; Zhang, L.; Xu, B.; Zhang, Y.

2018-04-01

The accurate positioning of optical satellite image without control is the precondition for remote sensing application and small/medium scale mapping in large abroad areas or with large-scale images. In this paper, aiming at the geometric features of optical satellite image, based on a widely used optimization method of constraint problem which is called Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) and RFM least-squares block adjustment, we propose a GCP independent block adjustment method for the large-scale domestic high resolution optical satellite image - GISIBA (GCP-Independent Satellite Imagery Block Adjustment), which is easy to parallelize and highly efficient. In this method, the virtual "average" control points are built to solve the rank defect problem and qualitative and quantitative analysis in block adjustment without control. The test results prove that the horizontal and vertical accuracy of multi-covered and multi-temporal satellite images are better than 10 m and 6 m. Meanwhile the mosaic problem of the adjacent areas in large area DOM production can be solved if the public geographic information data is introduced as horizontal and vertical constraints in the block adjustment process. Finally, through the experiments by using GF-1 and ZY-3 satellite images over several typical test areas, the reliability, accuracy and performance of our developed procedure will be presented and studied in this paper.

Fully implicit adaptive mesh refinement solver for 2D MHD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, B.; Chacon, L.; Pernice, M.

2008-11-01

Application of implicit adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) to simulate resistive magnetohydrodynamics is described. Solving this challenging multi-scale, multi-physics problem can improve understanding of reconnection in magnetically-confined plasmas. AMR is employed to resolve extremely thin current sheets, essential for an accurate macroscopic description. Implicit time stepping allows us to accurately follow the dynamical time scale of the developing magnetic field, without being restricted by fast Alfven time scales. At each time step, the large-scale system of nonlinear equations is solved by a Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method together with a physics-based preconditioner. Each block within the preconditioner is solved optimally using the Fast Adaptive Composite grid method, which can be considered as a multiplicative Schwarz method on AMR grids. We will demonstrate the excellent accuracy and efficiency properties of the method with several challenging reduced MHD applications, including tearing, island coalescence, and tilt instabilities. B. Philip, L. Chac'on, M. Pernice, J. Comput. Phys., in press (2008)

Structural design using equilibrium programming formulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scotti, Stephen J.

1995-01-01

Solutions to increasingly larger structural optimization problems are desired. However, computational resources are strained to meet this need. New methods will be required to solve increasingly larger problems. The present approaches to solving large-scale problems involve approximations for the constraints of structural optimization problems and/or decomposition of the problem into multiple subproblems that can be solved in parallel. An area of game theory, equilibrium programming (also known as noncooperative game theory), can be used to unify these existing approaches from a theoretical point of view (considering the existence and optimality of solutions), and be used as a framework for the development of new methods for solving large-scale optimization problems. Equilibrium programming theory is described, and existing design techniques such as fully stressed design and constraint approximations are shown to fit within its framework. Two new structural design formulations are also derived. The first new formulation is another approximation technique which is a general updating scheme for the sensitivity derivatives of design constraints. The second new formulation uses a substructure-based decomposition of the structure for analysis and sensitivity calculations. Significant computational benefits of the new formulations compared with a conventional method are demonstrated.

Drought and heatwaves in Europe: historical reconstruction and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Olda; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Heat waves and droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that may bring societies and natural systems to their limits by inducing large famines, increasing health risks to the population, creating drinking and irrigation water shortfalls, inducing natural fires and degradation of soil and water quality, and in many cases causing large socio-economic losses. Europe, in particular, has endured large scale drought-heat-wave events during the recent past (e.g., 2003 European drought), which have induced enormous socio-economic losses as well as casualties. Recent studies showed that the prediction of droughts and heatwaves is subject to large-scale forcing and parametric uncertainties that lead to considerable uncertainties in the projections of extreme characteristics such as drought magnitude/duration and area under drought, among others. Future projections are also heavily influenced by the RCP scenario uncertainty as well as the coarser spatial resolution of the models. The EDgE project funded by the Copernicus programme (C3S) provides an unique opportunity to investigate the evolution of droughts and heatwaves from 1950 until 2099 over the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2. In this project, high-resolution multi-model hydrologic simulations with the mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm), Noah-MP, VIC and PCR-GLOBWB have been completed for the historical period 1955-2015. Climate projections have been carried out with five CMIP-5 GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M from 2006 to 2099 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Using these multi-model unprecedented simulations, daily soil moisture index and temperature anomalies since 1955 until 2099 will be estimated. Using the procedure proposed by Samaniego et al. (2013), the probabilities of exceeding the benchmark events in the reference period 1980-2010 will be estimated for each RCP scenario. References http://climate.copernicus.eu/edge-end-end-demonstrator-improved-decision-making-water-sector-europe Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and M. Zink, 2013: Implications of parameter uncertainty on soil moisture drought analysis in Germany. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 47-68, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-075.1. Samaniego, L., et al. 2016: Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins. Climatic Change. 1-15.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Kyri; Toomey, Bridget

Evolving power systems with increasing levels of stochasticity call for a need to solve optimal power flow problems with large quantities of random variables. Weather forecasts, electricity prices, and shifting load patterns introduce higher levels of uncertainty and can yield optimization problems that are difficult to solve in an efficient manner. Solution methods for single chance constraints in optimal power flow problems have been considered in the literature, ensuring single constraints are satisfied with a prescribed probability; however, joint chance constraints, ensuring multiple constraints are simultaneously satisfied, have predominantly been solved via scenario-based approaches or by utilizing Boole's inequality asmore » an upper bound. In this paper, joint chance constraints are used to solve an AC optimal power flow problem while preventing overvoltages in distribution grids under high penetrations of photovoltaic systems. A tighter version of Boole's inequality is derived and used to provide a new upper bound on the joint chance constraint, and simulation results are shown demonstrating the benefit of the proposed upper bound. The new framework allows for a less conservative and more computationally efficient solution to considering joint chance constraints, specifically regarding preventing overvoltages.« less

Solving large-scale dynamic systems using band Lanczos method in Rockwell NASTRAN on CRAY X-MP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, V. K.; Zillmer, S. D.; Allison, R. E.

1986-01-01

The improved cost effectiveness using better models, more accurate and faster algorithms and large scale computing offers more representative dynamic analyses. The band Lanczos eigen-solution method was implemented in Rockwell's version of 1984 COSMIC-released NASTRAN finite element structural analysis computer program to effectively solve for structural vibration modes including those of large complex systems exceeding 10,000 degrees of freedom. The Lanczos vectors were re-orthogonalized locally using the Lanczos Method and globally using the modified Gram-Schmidt method for sweeping rigid-body modes and previously generated modes and Lanczos vectors. The truncated band matrix was solved for vibration frequencies and mode shapes using Givens rotations. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the cost effectiveness and accuracy of the method as implemented in ROCKWELL NASTRAN. The CRAY version is based on RPK's COSMIC/NASTRAN. The band Lanczos method was more reliable and accurate and converged faster than the single vector Lanczos Method. The band Lanczos method was comparable to the subspace iteration method which was a block version of the inverse power method. However, the subspace matrix tended to be fully populated in the case of subspace iteration and not as sparse as a band matrix.

Multi-period natural gas market modeling Applications, stochastic extensions and solution approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egging, Rudolf Gerardus

This dissertation develops deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems (MCP) for the global natural gas market, as well as solution approaches for large-scale stochastic MCP. The deterministic model is unique in the combination of the level of detail of the actors in the natural gas markets and the transport options, the detailed regional and global coverage, the multi-period approach with endogenous capacity expansions for transportation and storage infrastructure, the seasonal variation in demand and the representation of market power according to Nash-Cournot theory. The model is applied to several scenarios for the natural gas market that cover the formation of a cartel by the members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a low availability of unconventional gas in the United States, and cost reductions in long-distance gas transportation. 1 The results provide insights in how different regions are affected by various developments, in terms of production, consumption, traded volumes, prices and profits of market participants. The stochastic MCP is developed and applied to a global natural gas market problem with four scenarios for a time horizon until 2050 with nineteen regions and containing 78,768 variables. The scenarios vary in the possibility of a gas market cartel formation and varying depletion rates of gas reserves in the major gas importing regions. Outcomes for hedging decisions of market participants show some significant shifts in the timing and location of infrastructure investments, thereby affecting local market situations. A first application of Benders decomposition (BD) is presented to solve a large-scale stochastic MCP for the global gas market with many hundreds of first-stage capacity expansion variables and market players exerting various levels of market power. The largest problem solved successfully using BD contained 47,373 variables of which 763 first-stage variables, however using BD did not result in shorter solution times relative to solving the extensive-forms. Larger problems, up to 117,481 variables, were solved in extensive-form, but not when applying BD due to numerical issues. It is discussed how BD could significantly reduce the solution time of large-scale stochastic models, but various challenges remain and more research is needed to assess the potential of Benders decomposition for solving large-scale stochastic MCP. 1 www.gecforum.org

Active subspace: toward scalable low-rank learning.

PubMed

Liu, Guangcan; Yan, Shuicheng

2012-12-01

We address the scalability issues in low-rank matrix learning problems. Usually these problems resort to solving nuclear norm regularized optimization problems (NNROPs), which often suffer from high computational complexities if based on existing solvers, especially in large-scale settings. Based on the fact that the optimal solution matrix to an NNROP is often low rank, we revisit the classic mechanism of low-rank matrix factorization, based on which we present an active subspace algorithm for efficiently solving NNROPs by transforming large-scale NNROPs into small-scale problems. The transformation is achieved by factorizing the large solution matrix into the product of a small orthonormal matrix (active subspace) and another small matrix. Although such a transformation generally leads to nonconvex problems, we show that a suboptimal solution can be found by the augmented Lagrange alternating direction method. For the robust PCA (RPCA) (Candès, Li, Ma, & Wright, 2009 ) problem, a typical example of NNROPs, theoretical results verify the suboptimality of the solution produced by our algorithm. For the general NNROPs, we empirically show that our algorithm significantly reduces the computational complexity without loss of optimality.

Structured decision making as a framework for large-scale wildlife harvest management decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.; Hurst, Jeremy E.; Swift, Bryan L.; Kirsch, Arthur; Farquhar, James F.; Decker, Daniel J.; Siemer, William F.

2016-01-01

Fish and wildlife harvest management at large spatial scales often involves making complex decisions with multiple objectives and difficult tradeoffs, population demographics that vary spatially, competing stakeholder values, and uncertainties that might affect management decisions. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a formal decision analytic framework for evaluating difficult decisions by breaking decisions into component parts and separating the values of stakeholders from the scientific evaluation of management actions and uncertainty. The result is a rigorous, transparent, and values-driven process. This decision-aiding process provides the decision maker with a more complete understanding of the problem and the effects of potential management actions on stakeholder values, as well as how key uncertainties can affect the decision. We use a case study to illustrate how SDM can be used as a decision-aiding tool for management decision making at large scales. We evaluated alternative white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) buck-harvest regulations in New York designed to reduce harvest of yearling bucks, taking into consideration the values of the state wildlife agency responsible for managing deer, as well as deer hunters. We incorporated tradeoffs about social, ecological, and economic management concerns throughout the state. Based on the outcomes of predictive models, expert elicitation, and hunter surveys, the SDM process identified management alternatives that optimized competing objectives. The SDM process provided biologists and managers insight about aspects of the buck-harvest decision that helped them adopt a management strategy most compatible with diverse hunter values and management concerns.

Assessment of aerodynamic performance of V/STOL and STOVL fighter aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelms, W. P.

1984-01-01

The aerodynamic performance of V/STOL and STOVL fighter/attack aircraft was assessed. Aerodynamic and propulsion/airframe integration activities are described and small and large scale research programs are considered. Uncertainties affecting aerodynamic performance that are associated with special configuration features resulting from the V/STOL requirement are addressed. Example uncertainties relate to minimum drag, wave drag, high angle of attack characteristics, and power induced effects.

Extra dimension searches at hadron colliders to next-to-leading order-QCD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, M. C.; Mathews, Prakash; Ravindran, V.

2007-11-01

The quantitative impact of NLO-QCD corrections for searches of large and warped extra dimensions at hadron colliders are investigated for the Drell-Yan process. The K-factor for various observables at hadron colliders are presented. Factorisation, renormalisation scale dependence and uncertainties due to various parton distribution functions are studied. Uncertainties arising from the error on experimental data are estimated using the MRST parton distribution functions.

Can we improve top-down GHG inverse methods through informed prior and better representations of atmospheric transport? Insights from the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) - America Aircraft Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Keller, K.; Davis, K. J.

2016-12-01

Current estimates of biogenic carbon fluxes over North America based on top-down atmospheric inversions are subject to considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty stems to a large part from the uncertain prior fluxes estimates with the associated error covariances and approximations in the atmospheric transport models that link observed carbon dioxide mixing ratios with surface fluxes. Specifically, approximations in the representation of vertical mixing associated with atmospheric turbulence or convective transport and largely under-determined prior fluxes and their error structures significantly hamper our capacity to reliably estimate regional carbon fluxes. The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport - America (ACT-America) mission aims at reducing the uncertainties in inverse fluxes at the regional-scale by deploying airborne and ground-based platforms to characterize atmospheric GHG mixing ratios and the concurrent atmospheric dynamics. Two aircraft measure the 3-dimensional distribution of greenhouse gases at synoptic scales, focusing on the atmospheric boundary layer and the free troposphere during both fair and stormy weather conditions. Here we analyze two main questions: (i) What level of information can we expect from the currently planned observations? (ii) How might ACT-America reduce the hindcast and predictive uncertainty of carbon estimates over North America?

Regional crop yield forecasting: a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, A.; van Diepen, K.; Boogaard, H.

2009-04-01

Information on the outlook on yield and production of crops over large regions is essential for government services dealing with import and export of food crops, for agencies with a role in food relief, for international organizations with a mandate in monitoring the world food production and trade, and for commodity traders. Process-based mechanistic crop models are an important tool for providing such information, because they can integrate the effect of crop management, weather and soil on crop growth. When properly integrated in a yield forecasting system, the aggregated model output can be used to predict crop yield and production at regional, national and continental scales. Nevertheless, given the scales at which these models operate, the results are subject to large uncertainties due to poorly known weather conditions and crop management. Current yield forecasting systems are generally deterministic in nature and provide no information about the uncertainty bounds on their output. To improve on this situation we present an ensemble-based approach where uncertainty bounds can be derived from the dispersion of results in the ensemble. The probabilistic information provided by this ensemble-based system can be used to quantify uncertainties (risk) on regional crop yield forecasts and can therefore be an important support to quantitative risk analysis in a decision making process.

Chasing Perfection: Should We Reduce Model Uncertainty in Carbon Cycle-Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, G. B.; Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Lindsay, K. T.; Thomas, R. Q.

2015-12-01

Earth system model simulations of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle show large multi-model spread in the carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback parameters. Large differences among models are also seen in their simulation of global vegetation and soil C stocks and other aspects of the C cycle, prompting concern about model uncertainty and our ability to faithfully represent fundamental aspects of the terrestrial C cycle in Earth system models. Benchmarking analyses that compare model simulations with common datasets have been proposed as a means to assess model fidelity with observations, and various model-data fusion techniques have been used to reduce model biases. While such efforts will reduce multi-model spread, they may not help reduce uncertainty (and increase confidence) in projections of the C cycle over the twenty-first century. Many ecological and biogeochemical processes represented in Earth system models are poorly understood at both the site scale and across large regions, where biotic and edaphic heterogeneity are important. Our experience with the Community Land Model (CLM) suggests that large uncertainty in the terrestrial C cycle and its feedback with climate change is an inherent property of biological systems. The challenge of representing life in Earth system models, with the rich diversity of lifeforms and complexity of biological systems, may necessitate a multitude of modeling approaches to capture the range of possible outcomes. Such models should encompass a range of plausible model structures. We distinguish between model parameter uncertainty and model structural uncertainty. Focusing on improved parameter estimates may, in fact, limit progress in assessing model structural uncertainty associated with realistically representing biological processes. Moreover, higher confidence may be achieved through better process representation, but this does not necessarily reduce uncertainty.

Mathematical modeling and fuzzy availability analysis for serial processes in the crystallization system of a sugar plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Anil Kr.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Vikram

2017-03-01

The binary states, i.e., success or failed state assumptions used in conventional reliability are inappropriate for reliability analysis of complex industrial systems due to lack of sufficient probabilistic information. For large complex systems, the uncertainty of each individual parameter enhances the uncertainty of the system reliability. In this paper, the concept of fuzzy reliability has been used for reliability analysis of the system, and the effect of coverage factor, failure and repair rates of subsystems on fuzzy availability for fault-tolerant crystallization system of sugar plant is analyzed. Mathematical modeling of the system is carried out using the mnemonic rule to derive Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations. These governing differential equations are solved with Runge-Kutta fourth-order method.

The OLI Radiometric Scale Realization Round Robin Measurement Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cutlip, Hansford; Cole,Jerold; Johnson, B. Carol; Maxwell, Stephen; Markham, Brian; Ong, Lawrence; Hom, Milton; Biggar, Stuart

2011-01-01

A round robin radiometric scale realization was performed at the Ball Aerospace Radiometric Calibration Laboratory in January/February 2011 in support of the Operational Land Imager (OLI) Program. Participants included Ball Aerospace, NIST, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and the University of Arizona. The eight day campaign included multiple observations of three integrating sphere sources by nine radiometers. The objective of the campaign was to validate the radiance calibration uncertainty ascribed to the integrating sphere used to calibrate the OLI instrument. The instrument level calibration source uncertainty was validated by quatnifying: (1) the long term stability of the NIST calibrated radiance artifact, (2) the responsivity scale of the Ball Aerospace transfer radiometer and (3) the operational characteristics of the large integrating sphere.

Scaling laws and fluctuations in the statistics of word frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlach, Martin; Altmann, Eduardo G.

2014-11-01

In this paper, we combine statistical analysis of written texts and simple stochastic models to explain the appearance of scaling laws in the statistics of word frequencies. The average vocabulary of an ensemble of fixed-length texts is known to scale sublinearly with the total number of words (Heaps’ law). Analyzing the fluctuations around this average in three large databases (Google-ngram, English Wikipedia, and a collection of scientific articles), we find that the standard deviation scales linearly with the average (Taylor's law), in contrast to the prediction of decaying fluctuations obtained using simple sampling arguments. We explain both scaling laws (Heaps’ and Taylor) by modeling the usage of words using a Poisson process with a fat-tailed distribution of word frequencies (Zipf's law) and topic-dependent frequencies of individual words (as in topic models). Considering topical variations lead to quenched averages, turn the vocabulary size a non-self-averaging quantity, and explain the empirical observations. For the numerous practical applications relying on estimations of vocabulary size, our results show that uncertainties remain large even for long texts. We show how to account for these uncertainties in measurements of lexical richness of texts with different lengths.

Reducing computational costs in large scale 3D EIT by using a sparse Jacobian matrix with block-wise CGLS reconstruction.

PubMed

Yang, C L; Wei, H Y; Adler, A; Soleimani, M

2013-06-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a fast and cost-effective technique to provide a tomographic conductivity image of a subject from boundary current-voltage data. This paper proposes a time and memory efficient method for solving a large scale 3D EIT inverse problem using a parallel conjugate gradient (CG) algorithm. The 3D EIT system with a large number of measurement data can produce a large size of Jacobian matrix; this could cause difficulties in computer storage and the inversion process. One of challenges in 3D EIT is to decrease the reconstruction time and memory usage, at the same time retaining the image quality. Firstly, a sparse matrix reduction technique is proposed using thresholding to set very small values of the Jacobian matrix to zero. By adjusting the Jacobian matrix into a sparse format, the element with zeros would be eliminated, which results in a saving of memory requirement. Secondly, a block-wise CG method for parallel reconstruction has been developed. The proposed method has been tested using simulated data as well as experimental test samples. Sparse Jacobian with a block-wise CG enables the large scale EIT problem to be solved efficiently. Image quality measures are presented to quantify the effect of sparse matrix reduction in reconstruction results.

An Approach to Experimental Design for the Computer Analysis of Complex Phenomenon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutherford, Brian

2000-01-01

The ability to make credible system assessments, predictions and design decisions related to engineered systems and other complex phenomenon is key to a successful program for many large-scale investigations in government and industry. Recently, many of these large-scale analyses have turned to computational simulation to provide much of the required information. Addressing specific goals in the computer analysis of these complex phenomenon is often accomplished through the use of performance measures that are based on system response models. The response models are constructed using computer-generated responses together with physical test results where possible. They are often based on probabilistically defined inputs and generally require estimation of a set of response modeling parameters. As a consequence, the performance measures are themselves distributed quantities reflecting these variabilities and uncertainties. Uncertainty in the values of the performance measures leads to uncertainties in predicted performance and can cloud the decisions required of the analysis. A specific goal of this research has been to develop methodology that will reduce this uncertainty in an analysis environment where limited resources and system complexity together restrict the number of simulations that can be performed. An approach has been developed that is based on evaluation of the potential information provided for each "intelligently selected" candidate set of computer runs. Each candidate is evaluated by partitioning the performance measure uncertainty into two components - one component that could be explained through the additional computational simulation runs and a second that would remain uncertain. The portion explained is estimated using a probabilistic evaluation of likely results for the additional computational analyses based on what is currently known about the system. The set of runs indicating the largest potential reduction in uncertainty is then selected and the computational simulations are performed. Examples are provided to demonstrate this approach on small scale problems. These examples give encouraging results. Directions for further research are indicated.

Reduction of the uncertainty of the PTB vacuum pressure scale by a new large area non-rotating piston gauge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Th; Ahrendt, H.; Jousten, K.

2009-10-01

This paper describes the metrological characterization of a new large area piston gauge (FRS5, Furness Rosenberg Standard) installed at the vacuum metrology laboratory of the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB). The operational procedure and the uncertainty budget for pressures between 30 Pa and 11 kPa are given. Comparisons between the FRS5 and a mercury manometer, a rotary piston gauge and a force-balanced piston gauge are described. We show that the reproducibility of the calibration values of capacitance diaphragm gauges is enhanced by a factor of 6 compared with a static expansion primary standard (SE2). Improvements of the SE2 performance by reducing the number of expansions and smaller uncertainties of expansion ratios are discussed.

Confronting the “Indian summer monsoon response to black carbon aerosol” with the uncertainty in its radiative forcing and beyond

DOE PAGES

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil

2016-06-28

While black carbon aerosols (BC) are believed to modulate the Indian monsoons, the radiative forcing estimate of BC suffers from large uncertainties globally. In this paper, we analyze a suite of idealized experiments forced with a range of BC concentrations that span a large swath of the latest estimates of its global radiative forcing. Within those bounds of uncertainty, summer precipitation over the Indian region increases nearly linearly with the increase in BC burden. The linearity holds even as the BC concentration is increased to levels resembling those hypothesized in nuclear winter scenarios, despite large surface cooling over India andmore » adjoining regions. The enhanced monsoonal circulation is associated with a linear increase in the large-scale meridional tropospheric temperature gradient. The precipitable water over the region also increases linearly with an increase in BC burden, due to increased moisture transport from the Arabian sea to the land areas. The wide range of Indian monsoon response elicited in these experiments emphasizes the need to reduce the uncertainty in BC estimates to accurately quantify their role in modulating the Indian monsoons. Finally, the increase in monsoonal circulation in response to large BC concentrations contrasts earlier findings that the Indian summer monsoon may break down following a nuclear war.« less

Confronting the “Indian summer monsoon response to black carbon aerosol” with the uncertainty in its radiative forcing and beyond

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil

While black carbon aerosols (BC) are believed to modulate the Indian monsoons, the radiative forcing estimate of BC suffers from large uncertainties globally. In this paper, we analyze a suite of idealized experiments forced with a range of BC concentrations that span a large swath of the latest estimates of its global radiative forcing. Within those bounds of uncertainty, summer precipitation over the Indian region increases nearly linearly with the increase in BC burden. The linearity holds even as the BC concentration is increased to levels resembling those hypothesized in nuclear winter scenarios, despite large surface cooling over India andmore » adjoining regions. The enhanced monsoonal circulation is associated with a linear increase in the large-scale meridional tropospheric temperature gradient. The precipitable water over the region also increases linearly with an increase in BC burden, due to increased moisture transport from the Arabian sea to the land areas. The wide range of Indian monsoon response elicited in these experiments emphasizes the need to reduce the uncertainty in BC estimates to accurately quantify their role in modulating the Indian monsoons. Finally, the increase in monsoonal circulation in response to large BC concentrations contrasts earlier findings that the Indian summer monsoon may break down following a nuclear war.« less

Potential of European 14CO2 observation network to estimate the fossil fuel CO2 emissions via atmospheric inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yilong; Broquet, Grégoire; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric; Vogel, Felix; Wu, Lin; Yin, Yi; Wang, Rong; Tao, Shu

2018-03-01

Combining measurements of atmospheric CO2 and its radiocarbon (14CO2) fraction and transport modeling in atmospheric inversions offers a way to derive improved estimates of CO2 emitted from fossil fuel (FFCO2). In this study, we solve for the monthly FFCO2 emission budgets at regional scale (i.e., the size of a medium-sized country in Europe) and investigate the performance of different observation networks and sampling strategies across Europe. The inversion system is built on the LMDZv4 global transport model at 3.75° × 2.5° resolution. We conduct Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and use two types of diagnostics to assess the potential of the observation and inverse modeling frameworks. The first one relies on the theoretical computation of the uncertainty in the estimate of emissions from the inversion, known as posterior uncertainty, and on the uncertainty reduction compared to the uncertainty in the inventories of these emissions, which are used as a prior knowledge by the inversion (called prior uncertainty). The second one is based on comparisons of prior and posterior estimates of the emission to synthetic true emissions when these true emissions are used beforehand to generate the synthetic fossil fuel CO2 mixing ratio measurements that are assimilated in the inversion. With 17 stations currently measuring 14CO2 across Europe using 2-week integrated sampling, the uncertainty reduction for monthly FFCO2 emissions in a country where the network is rather dense like Germany, is larger than 30 %. With the 43 14CO2 measurement stations planned in Europe, the uncertainty reduction for monthly FFCO2 emissions is increased for the UK, France, Italy, eastern Europe and the Balkans, depending on the configuration of prior uncertainty. Further increasing the number of stations or the sampling frequency improves the uncertainty reduction (up to 40 to 70 %) in high emitting regions, but the performance of the inversion remains limited over low-emitting regions, even assuming a dense observation network covering the whole of Europe. This study also shows that both the theoretical uncertainty reduction (and resulting posterior uncertainty) from the inversion and the posterior estimate of emissions itself, for a given prior and true estimate of the emissions, are highly sensitive to the choice between two configurations of the prior uncertainty derived from the general estimate by inventory compilers or computations on existing inventories. In particular, when the configuration of the prior uncertainty statistics in the inversion system does not match the difference between these prior and true estimates, the posterior estimate of emissions deviates significantly from the truth. This highlights the difficulty of filtering the targeted signal in the model-data misfit for this specific inversion framework, the need to strongly rely on the prior uncertainty characterization for this and, consequently, the need for improved estimates of the uncertainties in current emission inventories for real applications with actual data. We apply the posterior uncertainty in annual emissions to the problem of detecting a trend of FFCO2, showing that increasing the monitoring period (e.g., more than 20 years) is more efficient than reducing uncertainty in annual emissions by adding stations. The coarse spatial resolution of the atmospheric transport model used in this OSSE (typical of models used for global inversions of natural CO2 fluxes) leads to large representation errors (related to the inability of the transport model to capture the spatial variability of the actual fluxes and mixing ratios at subgrid scales), which is a key limitation of our OSSE setup to improve the accuracy of the monitoring of FFCO2 emissions in European regions. Using a high-resolution transport model should improve the potential to retrieve FFCO2 emissions, and this needs to be investigated.

Uncertainty assessment of a model for biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal: Application to a large wastewater treatment plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannina, Giorgio; Cosenza, Alida; Viviani, Gaspare

In the last few years, the use of mathematical models in WasteWater Treatment Plant (WWTP) processes has become a common way to predict WWTP behaviour. However, mathematical models generally demand advanced input for their implementation that must be evaluated by an extensive data-gathering campaign, which cannot always be carried out. This fact, together with the intrinsic complexity of the model structure, leads to model results that may be very uncertain. Quantification of the uncertainty is imperative. However, despite the importance of uncertainty quantification, only few studies have been carried out in the wastewater treatment field, and those studies only included a few of the sources of model uncertainty. Seeking the development of the area, the paper presents the uncertainty assessment of a mathematical model simulating biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal. The uncertainty assessment was conducted according to the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology that has been scarcely applied in wastewater field. The model was based on activated-sludge models 1 (ASM) and 2 (ASM2). Different approaches can be used for uncertainty analysis. The GLUE methodology requires a large number of Monte Carlo simulations in which a random sampling of individual parameters drawn from probability distributions is used to determine a set of parameter values. Using this approach, model reliability was evaluated based on its capacity to globally limit the uncertainty. The method was applied to a large full-scale WWTP for which quantity and quality data was gathered. The analysis enabled to gain useful insights for WWTP modelling identifying the crucial aspects where higher uncertainty rely and where therefore, more efforts should be provided in terms of both data gathering and modelling practises.

Assessment of Error in Synoptic-Scale Diagnostics Derived from Wind Profiler and Radiosonde Network Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mace, Gerald G.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

1996-01-01

A topic of current practical interest is the accurate characterization of the synoptic-scale atmospheric state from wind profiler and radiosonde network observations. We have examined several related and commonly applied objective analysis techniques for performing this characterization and considered their associated level of uncertainty both from a theoretical and a practical standpoint. A case study is presented where two wind profiler triangles with nearly identical centroids and no common vertices produced strikingly different results during a 43-h period. We conclude that the uncertainty in objectively analyzed quantities can easily be as large as the expected synoptic-scale signal. In order to quantify the statistical precision of the algorithms, we conducted a realistic observing system simulation experiment using output from a mesoscale model. A simple parameterization for estimating the uncertainty in horizontal gradient quantities in terms of known errors in the objectively analyzed wind components and temperature is developed from these results.

Uncertainties in scaling factors for ab initio vibrational zero-point energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irikura, Karl K.; Johnson, Russell D.; Kacker, Raghu N.; Kessel, Rüdiger

2009-03-01

Vibrational zero-point energies (ZPEs) determined from ab initio calculations are often scaled by empirical factors. An empirical scaling factor partially compensates for the effects arising from vibrational anharmonicity and incomplete treatment of electron correlation. These effects are not random but are systematic. We report scaling factors for 32 combinations of theory and basis set, intended for predicting ZPEs from computed harmonic frequencies. An empirical scaling factor carries uncertainty. We quantify and report, for the first time, the uncertainties associated with scaling factors for ZPE. The uncertainties are larger than generally acknowledged; the scaling factors have only two significant digits. For example, the scaling factor for B3LYP/6-31G(d) is 0.9757±0.0224 (standard uncertainty). The uncertainties in the scaling factors lead to corresponding uncertainties in predicted ZPEs. The proposed method for quantifying the uncertainties associated with scaling factors is based upon the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, published by the International Organization for Standardization. We also present a new reference set of 60 diatomic and 15 polyatomic "experimental" ZPEs that includes estimated uncertainties.

Regional scale landslide risk assessment with a dynamic physical model - development, application and uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Byron Quan; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn; Liu, Zhongqiang; Eidsvig, Unni; Nadim, Farrokh

2013-04-01

Landslide risk must be assessed at the appropriate scale in order to allow effective risk management. At the moment, few deterministic models exist that can do all the computations required for a complete landslide risk assessment at a regional scale. This arises from the difficulty to precisely define the location and volume of the released mass and from the inability of the models to compute the displacement with a large amount of individual initiation areas (computationally exhaustive). This paper presents a medium-scale, dynamic physical model for rapid mass movements in mountainous and volcanic areas. The deterministic nature of the approach makes it possible to apply it to other sites since it considers the frictional equilibrium conditions for the initiation process, the rheological resistance of the displaced flow for the run-out process and fragility curve that links intensity to economic loss for each building. The model takes into account the triggering effect of an earthquake, intense rainfall and a combination of both (spatial and temporal). The run-out module of the model considers the flow as a 2-D continuum medium solving the equations of mass balance and momentum conservation. The model is embedded in an open source environment geographical information system (GIS), it is computationally efficient and it is transparent (understandable and comprehensible) for the end-user. The model was applied to a virtual region, assessing landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk. A Monte Carlo simulation scheme was applied to quantify, propagate and communicate the effects of uncertainty in input parameters on the final results. In this technique, the input distributions are recreated through sampling and the failure criteria are calculated for each stochastic realisation of the site properties. The model is able to identify the released volumes of the critical slopes and the areas threatened by the run-out intensity. The obtained final outcome is the estimation of individual building damage and total economic risk. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under grant agreement No 265138 New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX).

Transition from large-scale to small-scale dynamo.

PubMed

Ponty, Y; Plunian, F

2011-04-15

The dynamo equations are solved numerically with a helical forcing corresponding to the Roberts flow. In the fully turbulent regime the flow behaves as a Roberts flow on long time scales, plus turbulent fluctuations at short time scales. The dynamo onset is controlled by the long time scales of the flow, in agreement with the former Karlsruhe experimental results. The dynamo mechanism is governed by a generalized α effect, which includes both the usual α effect and turbulent diffusion, plus all higher order effects. Beyond the onset we find that this generalized α effect scales as O(Rm(-1)), suggesting the takeover of small-scale dynamo action. This is confirmed by simulations in which dynamo occurs even if the large-scale field is artificially suppressed.

An Efficient Multiscale Finite-Element Method for Frequency-Domain Seismic Wave Propagation

DOE PAGES

Gao, Kai; Fu, Shubin; Chung, Eric T.

2018-02-13

The frequency-domain seismic-wave equation, that is, the Helmholtz equation, has many important applications in seismological studies, yet is very challenging to solve, particularly for large geological models. Iterative solvers, domain decomposition, or parallel strategies can partially alleviate the computational burden, but these approaches may still encounter nontrivial difficulties in complex geological models where a sufficiently fine mesh is required to represent the fine-scale heterogeneities. We develop a novel numerical method to solve the frequency-domain acoustic wave equation on the basis of the multiscale finite-element theory. We discretize a heterogeneous model with a coarse mesh and employ carefully constructed high-order multiscalemore » basis functions to form the basis space for the coarse mesh. Solved from medium- and frequency-dependent local problems, these multiscale basis functions can effectively capture themedium’s fine-scale heterogeneity and the source’s frequency information, leading to a discrete system matrix with a much smaller dimension compared with those from conventional methods.We then obtain an accurate solution to the acoustic Helmholtz equation by solving only a small linear system instead of a large linear system constructed on the fine mesh in conventional methods.We verify our new method using several models of complicated heterogeneities, and the results show that our new multiscale method can solve the Helmholtz equation in complex models with high accuracy and extremely low computational costs.« less

An Efficient Multiscale Finite-Element Method for Frequency-Domain Seismic Wave Propagation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Kai; Fu, Shubin; Chung, Eric T.

The frequency-domain seismic-wave equation, that is, the Helmholtz equation, has many important applications in seismological studies, yet is very challenging to solve, particularly for large geological models. Iterative solvers, domain decomposition, or parallel strategies can partially alleviate the computational burden, but these approaches may still encounter nontrivial difficulties in complex geological models where a sufficiently fine mesh is required to represent the fine-scale heterogeneities. We develop a novel numerical method to solve the frequency-domain acoustic wave equation on the basis of the multiscale finite-element theory. We discretize a heterogeneous model with a coarse mesh and employ carefully constructed high-order multiscalemore » basis functions to form the basis space for the coarse mesh. Solved from medium- and frequency-dependent local problems, these multiscale basis functions can effectively capture themedium’s fine-scale heterogeneity and the source’s frequency information, leading to a discrete system matrix with a much smaller dimension compared with those from conventional methods.We then obtain an accurate solution to the acoustic Helmholtz equation by solving only a small linear system instead of a large linear system constructed on the fine mesh in conventional methods.We verify our new method using several models of complicated heterogeneities, and the results show that our new multiscale method can solve the Helmholtz equation in complex models with high accuracy and extremely low computational costs.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None, None

The Second SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering was held in San Diego from February 10-12, 2003. Total conference attendance was 553. This is a 23% increase in attendance over the first conference. The focus of this conference was to draw attention to the tremendous range of major computational efforts on large problems in science and engineering, to promote the interdisciplinary culture required to meet these large-scale challenges, and to encourage the training of the next generation of computational scientists. Computational Science & Engineering (CS&E) is now widely accepted, along with theory and experiment, as a crucial third modemore » of scientific investigation and engineering design. Aerospace, automotive, biological, chemical, semiconductor, and other industrial sectors now rely on simulation for technical decision support. For federal agencies also, CS&E has become an essential support for decisions on resources, transportation, and defense. CS&E is, by nature, interdisciplinary. It grows out of physical applications and it depends on computer architecture, but at its heart are powerful numerical algorithms and sophisticated computer science techniques. From an applied mathematics perspective, much of CS&E has involved analysis, but the future surely includes optimization and design, especially in the presence of uncertainty. Another mathematical frontier is the assimilation of very large data sets through such techniques as adaptive multi-resolution, automated feature search, and low-dimensional parameterization. The themes of the 2003 conference included, but were not limited to: Advanced Discretization Methods; Computational Biology and Bioinformatics; Computational Chemistry and Chemical Engineering; Computational Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; Computational Electromagnetics; Computational Fluid Dynamics; Computational Medicine and Bioengineering; Computational Physics and Astrophysics; Computational Solid Mechanics and Materials; CS&E Education; Meshing and Adaptivity; Multiscale and Multiphysics Problems; Numerical Algorithms for CS&E; Discrete and Combinatorial Algorithms for CS&E; Inverse Problems; Optimal Design, Optimal Control, and Inverse Problems; Parallel and Distributed Computing; Problem-Solving Environments; Software and Wddleware Systems; Uncertainty Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis; and Visualization and Computer Graphics.« less

Final Report. Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Coles, T.; Spantini, A.

2013-09-30

The project was a collaborative effort among MIT, Sandia National Laboratories (local PI Dr. Habib Najm), the University of Southern California (local PI Prof. Roger Ghanem), and The Johns Hopkins University (local PI Prof. Omar Knio, now at Duke University). Our focus was the analysis and reduction of large-scale dynamical systems emerging from networks of interacting components. Such networks underlie myriad natural and engineered systems. Examples important to DOE include chemical models of energy conversion processes, and elements of national infrastructure—e.g., electric power grids. Time scales in chemical systems span orders of magnitude, while infrastructure networks feature both local andmore » long-distance connectivity, with associated clusters of time scales. These systems also blend continuous and discrete behavior; examples include saturation phenomena in surface chemistry and catalysis, and switching in electrical networks. Reducing size and stiffness is essential to tractable and predictive simulation of these systems. Computational singular perturbation (CSP) has been effectively used to identify and decouple dynamics at disparate time scales in chemical systems, allowing reduction of model complexity and stiffness. In realistic settings, however, model reduction must contend with uncertainties, which are often greatest in large-scale systems most in need of reduction. Uncertainty is not limited to parameters; one must also address structural uncertainties—e.g., whether a link is present in a network—and the impact of random perturbations, e.g., fluctuating loads or sources. Research under this project developed new methods for the analysis and reduction of complex multiscale networks under uncertainty, by combining computational singular perturbation (CSP) with probabilistic uncertainty quantification. CSP yields asymptotic approximations of reduceddimensionality “slow manifolds” on which a multiscale dynamical system evolves. Introducing uncertainty in this context raised fundamentally new issues, e.g., how is the topology of slow manifolds transformed by parametric uncertainty? How to construct dynamical models on these uncertain manifolds? To address these questions, we used stochastic spectral polynomial chaos (PC) methods to reformulate uncertain network models and analyzed them using CSP in probabilistic terms. Finding uncertain manifolds involved the solution of stochastic eigenvalue problems, facilitated by projection onto PC bases. These problems motivated us to explore the spectral properties stochastic Galerkin systems. We also introduced novel methods for rank-reduction in stochastic eigensystems—transformations of a uncertain dynamical system that lead to lower storage and solution complexity. These technical accomplishments are detailed below. This report focuses on the MIT portion of the joint project.« less

Computational issues in complex water-energy optimization problems: Time scales, parameterizations, objectives and algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstratiadis, Andreas; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Kossieris, Panayiotis; Karavokiros, George; Christofides, Antonis; Siskos, Alexandros; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2015-04-01

Modelling of large-scale hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) is a challenging task, for which several open computational issues exist. HRES comprise typical components of hydrosystems (reservoirs, boreholes, conveyance networks, hydropower stations, pumps, water demand nodes, etc.), which are dynamically linked with renewables (e.g., wind turbines, solar parks) and energy demand nodes. In such systems, apart from the well-known shortcomings of water resources modelling (nonlinear dynamics, unknown future inflows, large number of variables and constraints, conflicting criteria, etc.), additional complexities and uncertainties arise due to the introduction of energy components and associated fluxes. A major difficulty is the need for coupling two different temporal scales, given that in hydrosystem modeling, monthly simulation steps are typically adopted, yet for a faithful representation of the energy balance (i.e. energy production vs. demand) a much finer resolution (e.g. hourly) is required. Another drawback is the increase of control variables, constraints and objectives, due to the simultaneous modelling of the two parallel fluxes (i.e. water and energy) and their interactions. Finally, since the driving hydrometeorological processes of the integrated system are inherently uncertain, it is often essential to use synthetically generated input time series of large length, in order to assess the system performance in terms of reliability and risk, with satisfactory accuracy. To address these issues, we propose an effective and efficient modeling framework, key objectives of which are: (a) the substantial reduction of control variables, through parsimonious yet consistent parameterizations; (b) the substantial decrease of computational burden of simulation, by linearizing the combined water and energy allocation problem of each individual time step, and solve each local sub-problem through very fast linear network programming algorithms, and (c) the substantial decrease of the required number of function evaluations for detecting the optimal management policy, using an innovative, surrogate-assisted global optimization approach.

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Asymmetric noise-induced large fluctuations in coupled systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Ira B.; Szwaykowska, Klimka; Carr, Thomas W.

2017-10-01

Networks of interacting, communicating subsystems are common in many fields, from ecology, biology, and epidemiology to engineering and robotics. In the presence of noise and uncertainty, interactions between the individual components can lead to unexpected complex system-wide behaviors. In this paper, we consider a generic model of two weakly coupled dynamical systems, and we show how noise in one part of the system is transmitted through the coupling interface. Working synergistically with the coupling, the noise on one system drives a large fluctuation in the other, even when there is no noise in the second system. Moreover, the large fluctuation happens while the first system exhibits only small random oscillations. Uncertainty effects are quantified by showing how characteristic time scales of noise-induced switching scale as a function of the coupling between the two coupled parts of the experiment. In addition, our results show that the probability of switching in the noise-free system scales inversely as the square of reduced noise intensity amplitude, rendering the virtual probability of switching an extremely rare event. Our results showing the interplay between transmitted noise and coupling are also confirmed through simulations, which agree quite well with analytic theory.

Neural Networks For Demodulation Of Phase-Modulated Signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Altes, Richard A.

1995-01-01

Hopfield neural networks proposed for demodulating quadrature phase-shift-keyed (QPSK) signals carrying digital information. Networks solve nonlinear integral equations prior demodulation circuits cannot solve. Consists of set of N operational amplifiers connected in parallel, with weighted feedback from output terminal of each amplifier to input terminals of other amplifiers. Used to solve signal processing problems. Implemented as analog very-large-scale integrated circuit that achieves rapid convergence. Alternatively, implemented as digital simulation of such circuit. Also used to improve phase estimation performance over that of phase-locked loop.

Collaborative Problem-Solving Environments; Proceedings for the Workshop CPSEs for Scientific Research, San Diego, California, June 20 to July 1, 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, George

1999-01-11

A workshop on collaborative problem-solving environments (CPSEs) was held June 29 through July 1, 1999, in San Diego, California. The workshop was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy and the High Performance Network Applications Team of the Large Scale Networking Working Group. The workshop brought together researchers and developers from industry, academia, and government to identify, define, and discuss future directions in collaboration and problem-solving technologies in support of scientific research.

Constraining the effects of permeability uncertainty for geologic CO2 sequestration in a basalt reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayne, R., Jr.; Pollyea, R.

2016-12-01

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) in geologic reservoirs is one strategy for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions from large-scale point-source emitters. Recent developments at the CarbFix CCS pilot in Iceland have shown that basalt reservoirs are highly effective for permanent mineral trapping on the basis of CO2-water-rock interactions, which result in the formation of carbonates minerals. In order to advance our understanding of basalt sequestration in large igneous provinces, this research uses numerical simulation to evaluate the feasibility of industrial-scale CO2 injections in the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). Although bulk reservoir properties are well constrained on the basis of field and laboratory testing from the Wallula Basalt Sequestration Pilot Project, there remains significant uncertainty in the spatial distribution of permeability at the scale of individual basalt flows. Geostatistical analysis of hydrologic data from 540 wells illustrates that CRBG reservoirs are reasonably modeled as layered heterogeneous systems on the basis of basalt flow morphology; however, the regional dataset is insufficient to constrain permeability variability at the scale of an individual basalt flow. As a result, permeability distribution for this modeling study is established by centering the lognormal permeability distribution in the regional dataset over the bulk permeability measured at Wallula site, which results in a spatially random permeability distribution within the target reservoir. In order to quantify the effects of this permeability uncertainty, CO2 injections are simulated within 50 equally probable synthetic reservoir domains. Each model domain comprises three-dimensional geometry with 530,000 grid blocks, and fracture-matrix interaction is simulated as interacting continua for the two low permeability layers (flow interiors) bounding the injection zone. Results from this research illustrate that permeability uncertainty at the scale of individual basalt flows may significantly impact both injection pressure accumulation and CO2 distribution.

Uncertainty in predicting soil hydraulic properties at the hillslope scale with indirect methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chirico, G. B.; Medina, H.; Romano, N.

2007-02-01

SummarySeveral hydrological applications require the characterisation of the soil hydraulic properties at large spatial scales. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are being developed as simplified methods to estimate soil hydraulic properties as an alternative to direct measurements, which are unfeasible for most practical circumstances. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainty in PTFs spatial predictions at the hillslope scale as related to the sampling density, due to: (i) the error in estimated soil physico-chemical properties and (ii) PTF model error. The analysis is carried out on a 2-km-long experimental hillslope in South Italy. The method adopted is based on a stochastic generation of patterns of soil variables using sequential Gaussian simulation, conditioned to the observed sample data. The following PTFs are applied: Vereecken's PTF [Vereecken, H., Diels, J., van Orshoven, J., Feyen, J., Bouma, J., 1992. Functional evaluation of pedotransfer functions for the estimation of soil hydraulic properties. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 56, 1371-1378] and HYPRES PTF [Wösten, J.H.M., Lilly, A., Nemes, A., Le Bas, C., 1999. Development and use of a database of hydraulic properties of European soils. Geoderma 90, 169-185]. The two PTFs estimate reliably the soil water retention characteristic even for a relatively coarse sampling resolution, with prediction uncertainties comparable to the uncertainties in direct laboratory or field measurements. The uncertainty of soil water retention prediction due to the model error is as much as or more significant than the uncertainty associated with the estimated input, even for a relatively coarse sampling resolution. Prediction uncertainties are much more important when PTF are applied to estimate the saturated hydraulic conductivity. In this case model error dominates the overall prediction uncertainties, making negligible the effect of the input error.

Robust Programming Problems Based on the Mean-Variance Model Including Uncertainty Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasuike, Takashi; Ishii, Hiroaki

2009-01-01

This paper considers robust programming problems based on the mean-variance model including uncertainty sets and fuzzy factors. Since these problems are not well-defined problems due to fuzzy factors, it is hard to solve them directly. Therefore, introducing chance constraints, fuzzy goals and possibility measures, the proposed models are transformed into the deterministic equivalent problems. Furthermore, in order to solve these equivalent problems efficiently, the solution method is constructed introducing the mean-absolute deviation and doing the equivalent transformations.

Robust stochastic optimization for reservoir operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Limeng; Housh, Mashor; Liu, Pan; Cai, Ximing; Chen, Xin

2015-01-01

Optimal reservoir operation under uncertainty is a challenging engineering problem. Application of classic stochastic optimization methods to large-scale problems is limited due to computational difficulty. Moreover, classic stochastic methods assume that the estimated distribution function or the sample inflow data accurately represents the true probability distribution, which may be invalid and the performance of the algorithms may be undermined. In this study, we introduce a robust optimization (RO) approach, Iterative Linear Decision Rule (ILDR), so as to provide a tractable approximation for a multiperiod hydropower generation problem. The proposed approach extends the existing LDR method by accommodating nonlinear objective functions. It also provides users with the flexibility of choosing the accuracy of ILDR approximations by assigning a desired number of piecewise linear segments to each uncertainty. The performance of the ILDR is compared with benchmark policies including the sampling stochastic dynamic programming (SSDP) policy derived from historical data. The ILDR solves both the single and multireservoir systems efficiently. The single reservoir case study results show that the RO method is as good as SSDP when implemented on the original historical inflows and it outperforms SSDP policy when tested on generated inflows with the same mean and covariance matrix as those in history. For the multireservoir case study, which considers water supply in addition to power generation, numerical results show that the proposed approach performs as well as in the single reservoir case study in terms of optimal value and distributional robustness.

Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating the Sampling-Related Uncertainty of Satellite Rainfall Averages Based on a Large Radar Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor); Bell, Thomas L.; Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Wood, Eric F.

2002-01-01

The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.

On the role of "internal variability" on soil erosion assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jongho; Ivanov, Valeriy; Fatichi, Simone

2017-04-01

Empirical data demonstrate that soil loss is highly non-unique with respect to meteorological or even runoff forcing and its frequency distributions exhibit heavy tails. However, all current erosion assessments do not describe the large associated uncertainties of temporal erosion variability and make unjustified assumptions by relying on central tendencies. Thus, the predictive skill of prognostic models and reliability of national-scale assessments have been repeatedly questioned. In this study, we attempt to reveal that the high variability in soil losses can be attributed to two sources: (1) 'external variability' referring to the uncertainties originating at macro-scale, such as climate, topography, and land use, which has been extensively studied; (2) 'geomorphic internal variability' referring to the micro-scale variations of pedologic properties (e.g., surface erodibility in soils with multi-sized particles), hydrologic properties (e.g., soil structure and degree of saturation), and hydraulic properties (e.g., surface roughness and surface topography). Using data and a physical hydraulic, hydrologic, and erosion and sediment transport model, we show that the geomorphic internal variability summarized by spatio-temporal variability in surface erodibility properties is a considerable source of uncertainty in erosion estimates and represents an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response. The conclusion is that predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components together with deterministic assessments, if they do not want to largely underestimate uncertainty. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education (2016R1D1A1B03931886).

Retrieval of water vapor column abundance and aerosol properties from ChemCam passive sky spectroscopy

DOE PAGES

McConnochie, Timothy H.; Smith, Michael D.; Wolff, Michael J.; ...

2017-11-03

In this work, we derive water vapor column abundances and aerosol properties from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) ChemCam passive mode observations of scattered sky light. This paper covers the methodology and initial results for water vapor and also provides preliminary results for aerosols. The data set presented here includes the results of 113 observations spanning from Mars Year 31 L s = 291° (March 30, 2013) to Mars Year 33 L s= 127° (March 24, 2016). Each ChemCam passive sky observation acquires spectra at two different elevation angles. We fit these spectra with a discrete-ordinates multiple scattering radiative transfer model,more » using the correlated-k approximation for gas absorption bands. The retrieval proceeds by first fitting the continuum of the ratio of the two elevation angles to solve for aerosol properties, and then fitting the continuum-removed ratio to solve for gas abundances. The final step of the retrieval makes use of the observed CO 2 absorptions and the known CO 2 abundance to correct the retrieved water vapor abundance for the effects of the vertical distribution of scattering aerosols and to derive an aerosol scale height parameter. Our water vapor results give water vapor column abundance with a precision of ±0.6 precipitable microns and systematic errors no larger than ±0.3 precipitable microns, assuming uniform vertical mixing. The ChemCam-retrieved water abundances show, with only a few exceptions, the same seasonal behavior and the same timing of seasonal minima and maxima as the TES, CRISM, and REMS-H data sets that we compare them to. However ChemCam-retrieved water abundances are generally lower than zonal and regional scale from-orbit water vapor data, while at the same time being significantly larger than pre-dawn REMS-H abundances. Pending further analysis of REMS-H volume mixing ratio uncertainties, the differences between ChemCam and REMS-H pre-dawn mixing ratios appear to be much too large to be explained by large scale circulations and thus they tend to support the hypothesis of substantial diurnal interactions of water vapor with the surface. Our preliminary aerosol results, meanwhile, show the expected seasonal pattern in dust particle size but also indicate a surprising interannual increase in water–ice cloud opacities.« less

Retrieval of water vapor column abundance and aerosol properties from ChemCam passive sky spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McConnochie, Timothy H.; Smith, Michael D.; Wolff, Michael J.

In this work, we derive water vapor column abundances and aerosol properties from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) ChemCam passive mode observations of scattered sky light. This paper covers the methodology and initial results for water vapor and also provides preliminary results for aerosols. The data set presented here includes the results of 113 observations spanning from Mars Year 31 L s = 291° (March 30, 2013) to Mars Year 33 L s= 127° (March 24, 2016). Each ChemCam passive sky observation acquires spectra at two different elevation angles. We fit these spectra with a discrete-ordinates multiple scattering radiative transfer model,more » using the correlated-k approximation for gas absorption bands. The retrieval proceeds by first fitting the continuum of the ratio of the two elevation angles to solve for aerosol properties, and then fitting the continuum-removed ratio to solve for gas abundances. The final step of the retrieval makes use of the observed CO 2 absorptions and the known CO 2 abundance to correct the retrieved water vapor abundance for the effects of the vertical distribution of scattering aerosols and to derive an aerosol scale height parameter. Our water vapor results give water vapor column abundance with a precision of ±0.6 precipitable microns and systematic errors no larger than ±0.3 precipitable microns, assuming uniform vertical mixing. The ChemCam-retrieved water abundances show, with only a few exceptions, the same seasonal behavior and the same timing of seasonal minima and maxima as the TES, CRISM, and REMS-H data sets that we compare them to. However ChemCam-retrieved water abundances are generally lower than zonal and regional scale from-orbit water vapor data, while at the same time being significantly larger than pre-dawn REMS-H abundances. Pending further analysis of REMS-H volume mixing ratio uncertainties, the differences between ChemCam and REMS-H pre-dawn mixing ratios appear to be much too large to be explained by large scale circulations and thus they tend to support the hypothesis of substantial diurnal interactions of water vapor with the surface. Our preliminary aerosol results, meanwhile, show the expected seasonal pattern in dust particle size but also indicate a surprising interannual increase in water–ice cloud opacities.« less

Retrieval of water vapor column abundance and aerosol properties from ChemCam passive sky spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McConnochie, Timothy H.; Smith, Michael D.; Wolff, Michael J.; Bender, Steve; Lemmon, Mark; Wiens, Roger C.; Maurice, Sylvestre; Gasnault, Olivier; Lasue, Jeremie; Meslin, Pierre-Yves; Harri, Ari-Matti; Genzer, Maria; Kemppinen, Osku; Martínez, Germán M.; DeFlores, Lauren; Blaney, Diana; Johnson, Jeffrey R.; Bell, James F.

2018-06-01

We derive water vapor column abundances and aerosol properties from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) ChemCam passive mode observations of scattered sky light. This paper covers the methodology and initial results for water vapor and also provides preliminary results for aerosols. The data set presented here includes the results of 113 observations spanning from Mars Year 31 Ls = 291° (March 30, 2013) to Mars Year 33 Ls= 127° (March 24, 2016). Each ChemCam passive sky observation acquires spectra at two different elevation angles. We fit these spectra with a discrete-ordinates multiple scattering radiative transfer model, using the correlated-k approximation for gas absorption bands. The retrieval proceeds by first fitting the continuum of the ratio of the two elevation angles to solve for aerosol properties, and then fitting the continuum-removed ratio to solve for gas abundances. The final step of the retrieval makes use of the observed CO2 absorptions and the known CO2 abundance to correct the retrieved water vapor abundance for the effects of the vertical distribution of scattering aerosols and to derive an aerosol scale height parameter. Our water vapor results give water vapor column abundance with a precision of ±0.6 precipitable microns and systematic errors no larger than ±0.3 precipitable microns, assuming uniform vertical mixing. The ChemCam-retrieved water abundances show, with only a few exceptions, the same seasonal behavior and the same timing of seasonal minima and maxima as the TES, CRISM, and REMS-H data sets that we compare them to. However ChemCam-retrieved water abundances are generally lower than zonal and regional scale from-orbit water vapor data, while at the same time being significantly larger than pre-dawn REMS-H abundances. Pending further analysis of REMS-H volume mixing ratio uncertainties, the differences between ChemCam and REMS-H pre-dawn mixing ratios appear to be much too large to be explained by large scale circulations and thus they tend to support the hypothesis of substantial diurnal interactions of water vapor with the surface. Our preliminary aerosol results, meanwhile, show the expected seasonal pattern in dust particle size but also indicate a surprising interannual increase in water-ice cloud opacities.

DistributedFBA.jl: High-level, high-performance flux balance analysis in Julia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heirendt, Laurent; Thiele, Ines; Fleming, Ronan M. T.

Flux balance analysis and its variants are widely used methods for predicting steady-state reaction rates in biochemical reaction networks. The exploration of high dimensional networks with such methods is currently hampered by software performance limitations. DistributedFBA.jl is a high-level, high-performance, open-source implementation of flux balance analysis in Julia. It is tailored to solve multiple flux balance analyses on a subset or all the reactions of large and huge-scale networks, on any number of threads or nodes. DistributedFBA.jl is a high-level, high-performance, open-source implementation of flux balance analysis in Julia. It is tailored to solve multiple flux balance analyses on amore » subset or all the reactions of large and huge-scale networks, on any number of threads or nodes.« less

DistributedFBA.jl: High-level, high-performance flux balance analysis in Julia

DOE PAGES

Heirendt, Laurent; Thiele, Ines; Fleming, Ronan M. T.

2017-01-16

Flux balance analysis and its variants are widely used methods for predicting steady-state reaction rates in biochemical reaction networks. The exploration of high dimensional networks with such methods is currently hampered by software performance limitations. DistributedFBA.jl is a high-level, high-performance, open-source implementation of flux balance analysis in Julia. It is tailored to solve multiple flux balance analyses on a subset or all the reactions of large and huge-scale networks, on any number of threads or nodes. DistributedFBA.jl is a high-level, high-performance, open-source implementation of flux balance analysis in Julia. It is tailored to solve multiple flux balance analyses on amore » subset or all the reactions of large and huge-scale networks, on any number of threads or nodes.« less

Large scale topography of Io

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaskell, R. W.; Synnott, S. P.

1987-01-01

To investigate the large scale topography of the Jovian satellite Io, both limb observations and stereographic techniques applied to landmarks are used. The raw data for this study consists of Voyager 1 images of Io, 800x800 arrays of picture elements each of which can take on 256 possible brightness values. In analyzing this data it was necessary to identify and locate landmarks and limb points on the raw images, remove the image distortions caused by the camera electronics and translate the corrected locations into positions relative to a reference geoid. Minimizing the uncertainty in the corrected locations is crucial to the success of this project. In the highest resolution frames, an error of a tenth of a pixel in image space location can lead to a 300 m error in true location. In the lowest resolution frames, the same error can lead to an uncertainty of several km.

Boosting Bayesian parameter inference of nonlinear stochastic differential equation models by Hamiltonian scale separation.

PubMed

Albert, Carlo; Ulzega, Simone; Stoop, Ruedi

2016-04-01

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In many situations, the dominant sources of uncertainty must be included into the model for making reliable predictions. This naturally leads to stochastic models. Stochastic models render parameter inference much harder, as the aim then is to find a distribution of likely parameter values. In Bayesian statistics, which is a consistent framework for data-driven learning, this so-called posterior distribution can be used to make probabilistic predictions. We propose a novel, exact, and very efficient approach for generating posterior parameter distributions for stochastic differential equation models calibrated to measured time series. The algorithm is inspired by reinterpreting the posterior distribution as a statistical mechanics partition function of an object akin to a polymer, where the measurements are mapped on heavier beads compared to those of the simulated data. To arrive at distribution samples, we employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approach combined with a multiple time-scale integration. A separation of time scales naturally arises if either the number of measurement points or the number of simulation points becomes large. Furthermore, at least for one-dimensional problems, we can decouple the harmonic modes between measurement points and solve the fastest part of their dynamics analytically. Our approach is applicable to a wide range of inference problems and is highly parallelizable.

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Using Multi-Optimization Algorithm as Sampling Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.

2015-12-01

For decades, distributed and lumped hydrological models have furthered our understanding of hydrological system. The development of hydrological simulation in large scale and high precision elaborated the spatial descriptions and hydrological behaviors. Meanwhile, the new trend is also followed by the increment of model complexity and number of parameters, which brings new challenges of uncertainty quantification. Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) has been widely used in uncertainty analysis for hydrological models referring to Monte Carlo method coupled with Bayesian estimation. However, the stochastic sampling method of prior parameters adopted by GLUE appears inefficient, especially in high dimensional parameter space. The heuristic optimization algorithms utilizing iterative evolution show better convergence speed and optimality-searching performance. In light of the features of heuristic optimization algorithms, this study adopted genetic algorithm, differential evolution, shuffled complex evolving algorithm to search the parameter space and obtain the parameter sets of large likelihoods. Based on the multi-algorithm sampling, hydrological model uncertainty analysis is conducted by the typical GLUE framework. To demonstrate the superiority of the new method, two hydrological models of different complexity are examined. The results shows the adaptive method tends to be efficient in sampling and effective in uncertainty analysis, providing an alternative path for uncertainty quantilization.

Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Big Data Fusion in Soil Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, B.; Kathuria, D.; Katzfuss, M.

2016-12-01

Soil moisture datasets from remote sensing (RS) platforms (such as SMOS and SMAP) and reanalysis products from land surface models are typically available on a coarse spatial granularity of several square km. Ground based sensors on the other hand provide observations on a finer spatial scale (meter scale or less) but are sparsely available. Soil moisture is affected by high variability due to complex interactions between geologic, topographic, vegetation and atmospheric variables. Hydrologic processes usually occur at a scale of 1 km or less and therefore spatially ubiquitous and temporally periodic soil moisture products at this scale are required to aid local decision makers in agriculture, weather prediction and reservoir operations. Past literature has largely focused on downscaling RS soil moisture for a small extent of a field or a watershed and hence the applicability of such products has been limited. The present study employs a spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to derive soil moisture products at a spatial scale of 1 km for the state of Oklahoma by fusing point scale Mesonet data and coarse scale RS data for soil moisture and its auxiliary covariates such as precipitation, topography, soil texture and vegetation. It is seen that the BHM model handles change of support problems easily while performing accurate uncertainty quantification arising from measurement errors and imperfect retrieval algorithms. The computational challenge arising due to the large number of measurements is tackled by utilizing basis function approaches and likelihood approximations. The BHM model can be considered as a complex Bayesian extension of traditional geostatistical prediction methods (such as Kriging) for large datasets in the presence of uncertainties.

Novel probabilistic and distributed algorithms for guidance, control, and nonlinear estimation of large-scale multi-agent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Saptarshi

Multi-agent systems are widely used for constructing a desired formation shape, exploring an area, surveillance, coverage, and other cooperative tasks. This dissertation introduces novel algorithms in the three main areas of shape formation, distributed estimation, and attitude control of large-scale multi-agent systems. In the first part of this dissertation, we address the problem of shape formation for thousands to millions of agents. Here, we present two novel algorithms for guiding a large-scale swarm of robotic systems into a desired formation shape in a distributed and scalable manner. These probabilistic swarm guidance algorithms adopt an Eulerian framework, where the physical space is partitioned into bins and the swarm's density distribution over each bin is controlled using tunable Markov chains. In the first algorithm - Probabilistic Swarm Guidance using Inhomogeneous Markov Chains (PSG-IMC) - each agent determines its bin transition probabilities using a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain that is constructed in real-time using feedback from the current swarm distribution. This PSG-IMC algorithm minimizes the expected cost of the transitions required to achieve and maintain the desired formation shape, even when agents are added to or removed from the swarm. The algorithm scales well with a large number of agents and complex formation shapes, and can also be adapted for area exploration applications. In the second algorithm - Probabilistic Swarm Guidance using Optimal Transport (PSG-OT) - each agent determines its bin transition probabilities by solving an optimal transport problem, which is recast as a linear program. In the presence of perfect feedback of the current swarm distribution, this algorithm minimizes the given cost function, guarantees faster convergence, reduces the number of transitions for achieving the desired formation, and is robust to disturbances or damages to the formation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these two proposed swarm guidance algorithms using results from numerical simulations and closed-loop hardware experiments on multiple quadrotors. In the second part of this dissertation, we present two novel discrete-time algorithms for distributed estimation, which track a single target using a network of heterogeneous sensing agents. The Distributed Bayesian Filtering (DBF) algorithm, the sensing agents combine their normalized likelihood functions using the logarithmic opinion pool and the discrete-time dynamic average consensus algorithm. Each agent's estimated likelihood function converges to an error ball centered on the joint likelihood function of the centralized multi-sensor Bayesian filtering algorithm. Using a new proof technique, the convergence, stability, and robustness properties of the DBF algorithm are rigorously characterized. The explicit bounds on the time step of the robust DBF algorithm are shown to depend on the time-scale of the target dynamics. Furthermore, the DBF algorithm for linear-Gaussian models can be cast into a modified form of the Kalman information filter. In the Bayesian Consensus Filtering (BCF) algorithm, the agents combine their estimated posterior pdfs multiple times within each time step using the logarithmic opinion pool scheme. Thus, each agent's consensual pdf minimizes the sum of Kullback-Leibler divergences with the local posterior pdfs. The performance and robust properties of these algorithms are validated using numerical simulations. In the third part of this dissertation, we present an attitude control strategy and a new nonlinear tracking controller for a spacecraft carrying a large object, such as an asteroid or a boulder. If the captured object is larger or comparable in size to the spacecraft and has significant modeling uncertainties, conventional nonlinear control laws that use exact feed-forward cancellation are not suitable because they exhibit a large resultant disturbance torque. The proposed nonlinear tracking control law guarantees global exponential convergence of tracking errors with finite-gain Lp stability in the presence of modeling uncertainties and disturbances, and reduces the resultant disturbance torque. Further, this control law permits the use of any attitude representation and its integral control formulation eliminates any constant disturbance. Under small uncertainties, the best strategy for stabilizing the combined system is to track a fuel-optimal reference trajectory using this nonlinear control law, because it consumes the least amount of fuel. In the presence of large uncertainties, the most effective strategy is to track the derivative plus proportional-derivative based reference trajectory, because it reduces the resultant disturbance torque. The effectiveness of the proposed attitude control law is demonstrated by using results of numerical simulation based on an Asteroid Redirect Mission concept. The new algorithms proposed in this dissertation will facilitate the development of versatile autonomous multi-agent systems that are capable of performing a variety of complex tasks in a robust and scalable manner.

Solving Navier-Stokes equations on a massively parallel processor; The 1 GFLOP performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saati, A.; Biringen, S.; Farhat, C.

This paper reports on experience in solving large-scale fluid dynamics problems on the Connection Machine model CM-2. The authors have implemented a parallel version of the MacCormack scheme for the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations. By using triad floating point operations and reducing the number of interprocessor communications, they have achieved a sustained performance rate of 1.42 GFLOPS.

An unbalanced spectra classification method based on entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhong-bao; Zhao, Wen-juan

2017-05-01

How to solve the problem of distinguishing the minority spectra from the majority of the spectra is quite important in astronomy. In view of this, an unbalanced spectra classification method based on entropy (USCM) is proposed in this paper to deal with the unbalanced spectra classification problem. USCM greatly improves the performances of the traditional classifiers on distinguishing the minority spectra as it takes the data distribution into consideration in the process of classification. However, its time complexity is exponential with the training size, and therefore, it can only deal with the problem of small- and medium-scale classification. How to solve the large-scale classification problem is quite important to USCM. It can be easily obtained by mathematical computation that the dual form of USCM is equivalent to the minimum enclosing ball (MEB), and core vector machine (CVM) is introduced, USCM based on CVM is proposed to deal with the large-scale classification problem. Several comparative experiments on the 4 subclasses of K-type spectra, 3 subclasses of F-type spectra and 3 subclasses of G-type spectra from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) verify USCM and USCM based on CVM perform better than kNN (k nearest neighbor) and SVM (support vector machine) in dealing with the problem of rare spectra mining respectively on the small- and medium-scale datasets and the large-scale datasets.

What's the Right Answer? Team Problem-Solving in Environments of Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jameson, Daphne A.

2009-01-01

Whether in the workplace or the classroom, many teams approach problem-solving as a search for certainty--even though certainty rarely exists in business. This search for the one right answer to a problem creates unrealistic expectations and often undermines teams' effectiveness. To help teams manage their problem-solving process and communication…

Mantle viscosity structure constrained by joint inversions of seismic velocities and density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudolph, M. L.; Moulik, P.; Lekic, V.

2017-12-01

The viscosity structure of Earth's deep mantle affects the thermal evolution of Earth, the ascent of mantle upwellings, sinking of subducted oceanic lithosphere, and the mixing of compositional heterogeneities in the mantle. Modeling the long-wavelength dynamic geoid allows us to constrain the radial viscosity profile of the mantle. Typically, in inversions for the mantle viscosity structure, wavespeed variations are mapped into density variations using a constant- or depth-dependent scaling factor. Here, we use a newly developed joint model of anisotropic Vs, Vp, density and transition zone topographies to generate a suite of solutions for the mantle viscosity structure directly from the seismologically constrained density structure. The density structure used to drive our forward models includes contributions from both thermal and compositional variations, including important contributions from compositionally dense material in the Large Low Velocity Provinces at the base of the mantle. These compositional variations have been neglected in the forward models used in most previous inversions and have the potential to significantly affect large-scale flow and thus the inferred viscosity structure. We use a transdimensional, hierarchical, Bayesian approach to solve the inverse problem, and our solutions for viscosity structure include an increase in viscosity below the base of the transition zone, in the shallow lower mantle. Using geoid dynamic response functions and an analysis of the correlation between the observed geoid and mantle structure, we demonstrate the underlying reason for this inference. Finally, we present a new family of solutions in which the data uncertainty is accounted for using covariance matrices associated with the mantle structure models.

Incremental planning to control a blackboard-based problem solver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Durfee, E. H.; Lesser, V. R.

1987-01-01

To control problem solving activity, a planner must resolve uncertainty about which specific long-term goals (solutions) to pursue and about which sequences of actions will best achieve those goals. A planner is described that abstracts the problem solving state to recognize possible competing and compatible solutions and to roughly predict the importance and expense of developing these solutions. With this information, the planner plans sequences of problem solving activities that most efficiently resolve its uncertainty about which of the possible solutions to work toward. The planner only details actions for the near future because the results of these actions will influence how (and whether) a plan should be pursued. As problem solving proceeds, the planner adds new details to the plan incrementally, and monitors and repairs the plan to insure it achieves its goals whenever possible. Through experiments, researchers illustrate how these new mechanisms significantly improve problem solving decisions and reduce overall computation. They briefly discuss current research directions, including how these mechanisms can improve a problem solver's real-time response and can enhance cooperation in a distributed problem solving network.

Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 1. A new information geodatabase with uncertainty characterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadini, A.; Bisson, M.; Neri, A.; Cioni, R.; Bevilacqua, A.; Aspinall, W. P.

2017-06-01

This study presents new and revised data sets about the spatial distribution of past volcanic vents, eruptive fissures, and regional/local structures of the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic system (Italy). The innovative features of the study are the identification and quantification of important sources of uncertainty affecting interpretations of the data sets. In this regard, the spatial uncertainty of each feature is modeled by an uncertainty area, i.e., a geometric element typically represented by a polygon drawn around points or lines. The new data sets have been assembled as an updatable geodatabase that integrates and complements existing databases for Somma-Vesuvio. The data are organized into 4 data sets and stored as 11 feature classes (points and lines for feature locations and polygons for the associated uncertainty areas), totaling more than 1700 elements. More specifically, volcanic vent and eruptive fissure elements are subdivided into feature classes according to their associated eruptive styles: (i) Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions (i.e., large- or medium-scale explosive activity); (ii) violent Strombolian and continuous ash emission eruptions (i.e., small-scale explosive activity); and (iii) effusive eruptions (including eruptions from both parasitic vents and eruptive fissures). Regional and local structures (i.e., deep faults) are represented as linear feature classes. To support interpretation of the eruption data, additional data sets are provided for Somma-Vesuvio geological units and caldera morphological features. In the companion paper, the data presented here, and the associated uncertainties, are used to develop a first vent opening probability map for the Somma-Vesuvio caldera, with specific attention focused on large or medium explosive events.

The structure of supersonic jet flow and its radiated sound

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mankbadi, Reda R.; Hayder, M. E.; Povinelli, Louis A.

1993-01-01

Large-eddy simulation of a supersonic jet is presented with emphasis on capturing the unsteady features of the flow pertinent to sound emission. A high-accuracy numerical scheme is used to solve the filtered, unsteady, compressible Navier-Stokes equations while modelling the subgrid-scale turbulence. For random inflow disturbance, the wave-like feature of the large-scale structure is demonstrated. The large-scale structure was then enhanced by imposing harmonic disturbances to the inflow. The limitation of using the full Navier-Stokes equation to calculate the far-field sound is discussed. Application of Lighthill's acoustic analogy is given with the objective of highlighting the difficulties that arise from the non-compactness of the source term.

Improving Future Ecosystem Benefits through Earth Observations: the H2020 Project ECOPOTENTIAL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provenzale, Antonello; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Ziv, Guy

2016-04-01

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems provide essential goods and services to human societies. In the last decades, however, anthropogenic pressures caused serious threats to ecosystem integrity, functions and processes, potentially leading to the loss of essential ecosystem services. ECOPOTENTIAL is a large European-funded H2020 project which focuses its activities on a targeted set of internationally recognised protected areas in Europe, European Territories and beyond, blending Earth Observations from remote sensing and field measurements, data analysis and modelling of current and future ecosystem conditions and services. The definition of future scenarios is based on climate and land-use change projections, addressing the issue of uncertainties and uncertainty propagation across the modelling chain. The ECOPOTENTIAL project addresses cross-scale geosphere-biosphere interactions and landscape-ecosystem dynamics at regional to continental scales, using geostatistical methods and the emerging approaches in Macrosystem Ecology and Earth Critical Zone studies, addressing long-term and large-scale environmental and ecological challenges. The project started its activities in 2015, by defining a set of storylines which allow to tackle some of the most crucial issues in the assessment of present conditions and the estimate of the future state of selected ecosystem services. In this contribution, we focus on some of the main storylines of the project and discuss the general approach, focusing on the interplay of data and models and on the estimate of projection uncertainties.

Environmental Studies: Mathematical, Computational and Statistical Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-03-03

mathematical analysis addresses the seasonally and longitudinally averaged circulation which is under the influence of a steady forcing located asymmetrically...employed, as has been suggested for some situations. A general discussion of how interfacial phenomena influence both the original contamination process...describing the large-scale advective and dispersive behaviour of contaminants transported by groundwater and the uncertainty associated with field-scale

Scale-Up: Improving Large Enrollment Physics Courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beichner, Robert

1999-11-01

The Student-Centered Activities for Large Enrollment University Physics (SCALE-UP) project is working to establish a learning environment that will promote increased conceptual understanding, improved problem-solving performance, and greater student satisfaction, while still maintaining class sizes of approximately 100. We are also addressing the new ABET engineering accreditation requirements for inquiry-based learning along with communication and team-oriented skills development. Results of studies of our latest classroom design, plans for future classroom space, and the current iteration of instructional materials will be discussed.

Uncertainty management in intelligent design aiding systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Donald E.; Gabbert, Paula S.

1988-01-01

A novel approach to uncertainty management which is particularly effective in intelligent design aiding systems for large-scale systems is presented. The use of this approach in the materials handling system design domain is discussed. It is noted that, during any point in the design process, a point value can be obtained for the evaluation of feasible designs; however, the techniques described provide unique solutions for these point values using only the current information about the design environment.

Searching for signatures of dark matter-dark radiation interaction in observations of large-scale structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Zhen; Kaplinghat, Manoj; Knox, Lloyd

2018-05-01

In this paper, we conduct a search in the latest large-scale structure measurements for signatures of the dark matter-dark radiation interaction proposed by Buen-Abad et al. (2015). We show that prior claims of an inference of this interaction at ˜3 σ significance rely on a use of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster mass function that ignores uncertainty in the mass-observable relationship. Including this uncertainty we find that the inferred level of interaction remains consistent with the data, but so does zero interaction; i.e., there is no longer a preference for nonzero interaction. We also point out that inference of the shape and amplitude of the matter power spectrum from Ly α forest measurements is highly inconsistent with the predictions of the Λ CDM model conditioned on Planck cosmic microwave background temperature, polarization, and lensing power spectra, and that the dark matter-dark radiation model can restore that consistency. We also phenomenologically generalize the model of Buen-Abad et al. (2015) to allow for interaction rates with different scalings with temperature, and find that the original scaling is preferred by the data.

Towards Understanding Methane Emissions from Abandoned Wells

EPA Science Inventory

Reconciliation of large-scale top-down methane measurements and bottom-up inventories requires complete accounting of source types. Methane emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells is an area of uncertainty. This presentation reviews progress to characterize the potential inv...

Use of randomized sampling for analysis of metabolic networks.

PubMed

Schellenberger, Jan; Palsson, Bernhard Ø

2009-02-27

Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions in microorganisms have been formulated and studied for about 8 years. The constraint-based approach has shown great promise in analyzing the systemic properties of these network reconstructions. Notably, constraint-based models have been used successfully to predict the phenotypic effects of knock-outs and for metabolic engineering. The inherent uncertainty in both parameters and variables of large-scale models is significant and is well suited to study by Monte Carlo sampling of the solution space. These techniques have been applied extensively to the reaction rate (flux) space of networks, with more recent work focusing on dynamic/kinetic properties. Monte Carlo sampling as an analysis tool has many advantages, including the ability to work with missing data, the ability to apply post-processing techniques, and the ability to quantify uncertainty and to optimize experiments to reduce uncertainty. We present an overview of this emerging area of research in systems biology.

Algorithms for sum-of-squares-based stability analysis and control design of uncertain nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ataei-Esfahani, Armin

In this dissertation, we present algorithmic procedures for sum-of-squares based stability analysis and control design for uncertain nonlinear systems. In particular, we consider the case of robust aircraft control design for a hypersonic aircraft model subject to parametric uncertainties in its aerodynamic coefficients. In recent years, Sum-of-Squares (SOS) method has attracted increasing interest as a new approach for stability analysis and controller design of nonlinear dynamic systems. Through the application of SOS method, one can describe a stability analysis or control design problem as a convex optimization problem, which can efficiently be solved using Semidefinite Programming (SDP) solvers. For nominal systems, the SOS method can provide a reliable and fast approach for stability analysis and control design for low-order systems defined over the space of relatively low-degree polynomials. However, The SOS method is not well-suited for control problems relating to uncertain systems, specially those with relatively high number of uncertainties or those with non-affine uncertainty structure. In order to avoid issues relating to the increased complexity of the SOS problems for uncertain system, we present an algorithm that can be used to transform an SOS problem with uncertainties into a LMI problem with uncertainties. A new Probabilistic Ellipsoid Algorithm (PEA) is given to solve the robust LMI problem, which can guarantee the feasibility of a given solution candidate with an a-priori fixed probability of violation and with a fixed confidence level. We also introduce two approaches to approximate the robust region of attraction (RROA) for uncertain nonlinear systems with non-affine dependence on uncertainties. The first approach is based on a combination of PEA and SOS method and searches for a common Lyapunov function, while the second approach is based on the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansion theorem combined with the SOS method and searches for parameter-dependent Lyapunov functions. The control design problem is investigated through a case study of a hypersonic aircraft model with parametric uncertainties. Through time-scale decomposition and a series of function approximations, the complexity of the aircraft model is reduced to fall within the capability of SDP solvers. The control design problem is then formulated as a convex problem using the dual of the Lyapunov theorem. A nonlinear robust controller is searched using the combined PEA/SOS method. The response of the uncertain aircraft model is evaluated for two sets of pilot commands. As the simulation results show, the aircraft remains stable under up to 50% uncertainty in aerodynamic coefficients and can follow the pilot commands.

ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.

PubMed

van der Pas, J W G M; Marchau, V A W J; Walker, W E; van Wee, G P; Vlassenroot, S H

2012-09-01

Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Uncertainty of Local Background Magnetic Field Orientation in Anisotropic Plasma Turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerick, F.; Saur, J.; Papen, M. von, E-mail: felix.gerick@uni-koeln.de

In order to resolve and characterize anisotropy in turbulent plasma flows, a proper estimation of the background magnetic field is crucially important. Various approaches to calculating the background magnetic field, ranging from local to globally averaged fields, are commonly used in the analysis of turbulent data. We investigate how the uncertainty in the orientation of a scale-dependent background magnetic field influences the ability to resolve anisotropy. Therefore, we introduce a quantitative measure, the angle uncertainty, that characterizes the uncertainty of the orientation of the background magnetic field that turbulent structures are exposed to. The angle uncertainty can be used asmore » a condition to estimate the ability to resolve anisotropy with certain accuracy. We apply our description to resolve the spectral anisotropy in fast solar wind data. We show that, if the angle uncertainty grows too large, the power of the turbulent fluctuations is attributed to false local magnetic field angles, which may lead to an incorrect estimation of the spectral indices. In our results, an apparent robustness of the spectral anisotropy to false local magnetic field angles is observed, which can be explained by a stronger increase of power for lower frequencies when the scale of the local magnetic field is increased. The frequency-dependent angle uncertainty is a measure that can be applied to any turbulent system.« less

Catchment-Scale Terrain Modelling with Structure-from-Motion Photogrammetry: a replacement for airborne lidar?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasington, J.

2015-12-01

Over the last five years, Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry has dramatically democratized the availability of high quality topographic data. This approach involves the use of a non-linear bundle adjustment to estimate simultaneously camera position, pose, distortion and 3D model coordinates. In contrast to traditional aerial photogrammetry, the bundle adjustment is typically solved without external constraints and instead ground control is used a posteriori to transform the modelled coordinates to an established datum using a similarity transformation. The limited data requirements, coupled with the ability to self-calibrate compact cameras, has led to a burgeoning of applications using low-cost imagery acquired terrestrially or from low-altitude platforms. To date, most applications have focused on relatively small spatial scales where relaxed logistics permit the use of dense ground control and high resolution, close-range photography. It is less clear whether this low-cost approach can be successfully upscaled to tackle larger, watershed-scale projects extending over 102-3 km2 where it could offer a competitive alternative to landscape modelling with airborne lidar. At such scales, compromises over the density of ground control, the speed and height of sensor platform and related image properties are inevitable. In this presentation we provide a systematic assessment of large-scale SfM terrain products derived for over 80 km2 of the braided Dart River and its catchment in the Southern Alps of NZ. Reference data in the form of airborne and terrestrial lidar are used to quantify the quality of 3D reconstructions derived from helicopter photography and used to establish baseline uncertainty models for geomorphic change detection. Results indicate that camera network design is a key determinant of model quality, and that standard aerial networks based on strips of nadir photography can lead to unstable camera calibration and systematic errors that are difficult to model with sparse ground control. We demonstrate how a low cost multi-camera platform providing both nadir and oblique imagery can support robust camera calibration, enabling the generation of high quality, large-scale terrain products that are suitable for precision fluvial change detection.

Catchment-Scale Terrain Modelling with Structure-from-Motion Photogrammetry: a replacement for airborne lidar?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasington, James; James, Joe; Cook, Simon; Cox, Simon; Lotsari, Eliisa; McColl, Sam; Lehane, Niall; Williams, Richard; Vericat, Damia

2016-04-01

In recent years, 3D terrain reconstructions based on Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry have dramatically democratized the availability of high quality topographic data. This approach involves the use of a non-linear bundle adjustment to estimate simultaneously camera position, pose, distortion and 3D model coordinates. In contrast to traditional aerial photogrammetry, the bundle adjustment is typically solved without external constraints and instead ground control is used a posteriori to transform the modelled coordinates to an established datum using a similarity transformation. The limited data requirements, coupled with the ability to self-calibrate compact cameras, has led to a burgeoning of applications using low-cost imagery acquired terrestrially or from low-altitude platforms. To date, most applications have focused on relatively small spatial scales (0.1-5 Ha), where relaxed logistics permit the use of dense ground control networks and high resolution, close-range photography. It is less clear whether this low-cost approach can be successfully upscaled to tackle larger, watershed-scale projects extending over 102-3 km2 where it could offer a competitive alternative to established landscape modelling with airborne lidar. At such scales, compromises over the density of ground control, the speed and height of sensor platform and related image properties are inevitable. In this presentation we provide a systematic assessment of the quality of large-scale SfM terrain products derived for over 80 km2 of the braided Dart River and its catchment in the Southern Alps of NZ. Reference data in the form of airborne and terrestrial lidar are used to quantify the quality of 3D reconstructions derived from helicopter photography and used to establish baseline uncertainty models for geomorphic change detection. Results indicate that camera network design is a key determinant of model quality, and that standard aerial photogrammetric networks based on strips of nadir photography can lead to unstable camera calibration and systematic errors that are difficult to model with sparse ground control. We demonstrate how a low cost multi-camera platform providing both nadir and oblique imagery can support robust camera calibration, enabling the generation of high quality, large-scale terrain products that are suitable for precision fluvial change detection.

Moditored unsaturated soil transport processes as a support for large scale soil and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanclooster, Marnik

2010-05-01

The current societal demand for sustainable soil and water management is very large. The drivers of global and climate change exert many pressures on the soil and water ecosystems, endangering appropriate ecosystem functioning. The unsaturated soil transport processes play a key role in soil-water system functioning as it controls the fluxes of water and nutrients from the soil to plants (the pedo-biosphere link), the infiltration flux of precipitated water to groundwater and the evaporative flux, and hence the feed back from the soil to the climate system. Yet, unsaturated soil transport processes are difficult to quantify since they are affected by huge variability of the governing properties at different space-time scales and the intrinsic non-linearity of the transport processes. The incompatibility of the scales between the scale at which processes reasonably can be characterized, the scale at which the theoretical process correctly can be described and the scale at which the soil and water system need to be managed, calls for further development of scaling procedures in unsaturated zone science. It also calls for a better integration of theoretical and modelling approaches to elucidate transport processes at the appropriate scales, compatible with the sustainable soil and water management objective. Moditoring science, i.e the interdisciplinary research domain where modelling and monitoring science are linked, is currently evolving significantly in the unsaturated zone hydrology area. In this presentation, a review of current moditoring strategies/techniques will be given and illustrated for solving large scale soil and water management problems. This will also allow identifying research needs in the interdisciplinary domain of modelling and monitoring and to improve the integration of unsaturated zone science in solving soil and water management issues. A focus will be given on examples of large scale soil and water management problems in Europe.

Multilevel UQ strategies for large-scale multiphysics applications: PSAAP II solar receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jofre, Lluis; Geraci, Gianluca; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2017-06-01

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a fundamental part in building confidence in predictive science. Of particular interest is the case of modeling and simulating engineering applications where, due to the inherent complexity, many uncertainties naturally arise, e.g. domain geometry, operating conditions, errors induced by modeling assumptions, etc. In this regard, one of the pacing items, especially in high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, is the large amount of computing resources typically required to propagate incertitude through the models. Upcoming exascale supercomputers will significantly increase the available computational power. However, UQ approaches cannot entrust their applicability only on brute force Monte Carlo (MC) sampling; the large number of uncertainty sources and the presence of nonlinearities in the solution will make straightforward MC analysis unaffordable. Therefore, this work explores the multilevel MC strategy, and its extension to multi-fidelity and time convergence, to accelerate the estimation of the effect of uncertainties. The approach is described in detail, and its performance demonstrated on a radiated turbulent particle-laden flow case relevant to solar energy receivers (PSAAP II: Particle-laden turbulence in a radiation environment). Investigation funded by DoE's NNSA under PSAAP II.

Building continental-scale 3D subsurface layers in the Digital Crust project: constrained interpolation and uncertainty estimation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yulaeva, E.; Fan, Y.; Moosdorf, N.; Richard, S. M.; Bristol, S.; Peters, S. E.; Zaslavsky, I.; Ingebritsen, S.

2015-12-01

The Digital Crust EarthCube building block creates a framework for integrating disparate 3D/4D information from multiple sources into a comprehensive model of the structure and composition of the Earth's upper crust, and to demonstrate the utility of this model in several research scenarios. One of such scenarios is estimation of various crustal properties related to fluid dynamics (e.g. permeability and porosity) at each node of any arbitrary unstructured 3D grid to support continental-scale numerical models of fluid flow and transport. Starting from Macrostrat, an existing 4D database of 33,903 chronostratigraphic units, and employing GeoDeepDive, a software system for extracting structured information from unstructured documents, we construct 3D gridded fields of sediment/rock porosity, permeability and geochemistry for large sedimentary basins of North America, which will be used to improve our understanding of large-scale fluid flow, chemical weathering rates, and geochemical fluxes into the ocean. In this talk, we discuss the methods, data gaps (particularly in geologically complex terrain), and various physical and geological constraints on interpolation and uncertainty estimation.

Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

2018-03-01

Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

Multi-fidelity methods for uncertainty quantification in transport problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tartakovsky, G.; Yang, X.; Tartakovsky, A. M.; Barajas-Solano, D. A.; Scheibe, T. D.; Dai, H.; Chen, X.

2016-12-01

We compare several multi-fidelity approaches for uncertainty quantification in flow and transport simulations that have a lower computational cost than the standard Monte Carlo method. The cost reduction is achieved by combining a small number of high-resolution (high-fidelity) simulations with a large number of low-resolution (low-fidelity) simulations. We propose a new method, a re-scaled Multi Level Monte Carlo (rMLMC) method. The rMLMC is based on the idea that the statistics of quantities of interest depends on scale/resolution. We compare rMLMC with existing multi-fidelity methods such as Multi Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) and reduced basis methods and discuss advantages of each approach.

High voltage system: Plasma interaction summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevens, N. John

1986-01-01

The possible interactions that could exist between a high voltage system and the space plasma environment are reviewed. A solar array is used as an example of such a system. The emphasis in this review is on the discrepancies that exist in this technology in both flight and ground experiment data. It has been found that, in ground testing, there are facility effects, cell size effects and area scaling uncertainties. For space applications there are area scaling and discharge concerns for an array as well as the influence of the large space structures on the collection process. There are still considerable uncertainties in the high voltage-space plasma interaction technology even after several years of effort.

A multilevel correction adaptive finite element method for Kohn-Sham equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Guanghui; Xie, Hehu; Xu, Fei

2018-02-01

In this paper, an adaptive finite element method is proposed for solving Kohn-Sham equation with the multilevel correction technique. In the method, the Kohn-Sham equation is solved on a fixed and appropriately coarse mesh with the finite element method in which the finite element space is kept improving by solving the derived boundary value problems on a series of adaptively and successively refined meshes. A main feature of the method is that solving large scale Kohn-Sham system is avoided effectively, and solving the derived boundary value problems can be handled efficiently by classical methods such as the multigrid method. Hence, the significant acceleration can be obtained on solving Kohn-Sham equation with the proposed multilevel correction technique. The performance of the method is examined by a variety of numerical experiments.

Large-scale studies on the transferability of general problem-solving skills and the pedagogic potential of physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashood, K. K.; Singh, Vijay A.

2013-09-01

Research suggests that problem-solving skills are transferable across domains. This claim, however, needs further empirical substantiation. We suggest correlation studies as a methodology for making preliminary inferences about transfer. The correlation of the physics performance of students with their performance in chemistry and mathematics in highly competitive problem-solving examinations was studied using a massive database. The sample sizes ranged from hundreds to a few hundred thousand. Encouraged by the presence of significant correlations, we interviewed 20 students to explore the pedagogic potential of physics in imparting transferable problem-solving skills. We report strategies and practices relevant to physics employed by these students which foster transfer.

Surface-layer turbulence, energy balance and links to atmospheric circulations over a mountain glacier in the French Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litt, Maxime; Sicart, Jean-Emmanuel; Six, Delphine; Wagnon, Patrick; Helgason, Warren D.

2017-04-01

Over Saint-Sorlin Glacier in the French Alps (45° N, 6.1° E; ˜ 3 km2) in summer, we study the atmospheric surface-layer dynamics, turbulent fluxes, their uncertainties and their impact on surface energy balance (SEB) melt estimates. Results are classified with regard to large-scale forcing. We use high-frequency eddy-covariance data and mean air-temperature and wind-speed vertical profiles, collected in 2006 and 2009 in the glacier's atmospheric surface layer. We evaluate the turbulent fluxes with the eddy-covariance (sonic) and the profile method, and random errors and parametric uncertainties are evaluated by including different stability corrections and assuming different values for surface roughness lengths. For weak synoptic forcing, local thermal effects dominate the wind circulation. On the glacier, weak katabatic flows with a wind-speed maximum at low height (2-3 m) are detected 71 % of the time and are generally associated with small turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and small net turbulent fluxes. Radiative fluxes dominate the SEB. When the large-scale forcing is strong, the wind in the valley aligns with the glacier flow, intense downslope flows are observed, no wind-speed maximum is visible below 5 m, and TKE and net turbulent fluxes are often intense. The net turbulent fluxes contribute significantly to the SEB. The surface-layer turbulence production is probably not at equilibrium with dissipation because of interactions of large-scale orographic disturbances with the flow when the forcing is strong or low-frequency oscillations of the katabatic flow when the forcing is weak. In weak forcing when TKE is low, all turbulent fluxes calculation methods provide similar fluxes. In strong forcing when TKE is large, the choice of roughness lengths impacts strongly the net turbulent fluxes from the profile method fluxes and their uncertainties. However, the uncertainty on the total SEB remains too high with regard to the net observed melt to be able to recommend one turbulent flux calculation method over another.

Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

2007-12-01

The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result ofmore » the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations are challenged by the distributed sources in each of the Corrective Action Units, by complex mass transfer processes, and by the size and complexity of the field-scale flow models. An efficient methodology utilizing particle tracking results and convolution integrals provides in situ concentrations appropriate for Monte Carlo analysis. Uncertainty in source releases and transport parameters including effective porosity, fracture apertures and spacing, matrix diffusion coefficients, sorption coefficients, and colloid load and mobility are considered. With the distributions of input uncertainties and output plume volumes, global analysis methods including stepwise regression, contingency table analysis, and classification tree analysis are used to develop sensitivity rankings of parameter uncertainties for each model considered, thus assisting a variety of decisions.« less

Two stage hydrolysis of corn stover at high solids content for mixing power saving and scale-up applications.

PubMed

Liu, Ke; Zhang, Jian; Bao, Jie

2015-11-01

A two stage hydrolysis of corn stover was designed to solve the difficulties between sufficient mixing at high solids content and high power input encountered in large scale bioreactors. The process starts with the quick liquefaction to convert solid cellulose to liquid slurry with strong mixing in small reactors, then followed the comprehensive hydrolysis to complete saccharification into fermentable sugars in large reactors without agitation apparatus. 60% of the mixing energy consumption was saved by removing the mixing apparatus in large scale vessels. Scale-up ratio was small for the first step hydrolysis reactors because of the reduced reactor volume. For large saccharification reactors in the second step, the scale-up was easy because of no mixing mechanism was involved. This two stage hydrolysis is applicable for either simple hydrolysis or combined fermentation processes. The method provided a practical process option for industrial scale biorefinery processing of lignocellulose biomass. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementing and Bounding a Cascade Heuristic for Large-Scale Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

solving the monolith, we develop a method for producing lower bounds to the optimal objective function value. To do this, we solve a new integer...as developing and analyzing methods for producing lower bounds to the optimal objective function value of the seminal problem monolith, which this...length of the window decreases, the end effects of the model typically increase (Zerr, 2016). There are four primary methods for correcting end

Can microbes economically remove sulfur

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, J.L.

Researchers have reported that refiners who now rely on costly physic-chemical procedures to desulfurize petroleum will soon have an alternative microbial-enzyme-based approach to this process. This new approach is still under development and considerable number chemical engineering problems need to be solved before this process is ready for large-scale use. This paper reviews the several research projects dedicated solving the problems that keep a biotechnology-based alternative from competing with chemical desulfurization.

The Power Spectrum of the Milky Way: Velocity Fluctuations in the Galactic Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bovy, Jo; Bird, Jonathan C.; García Pérez, Ana E.; Majewski, Steven R.; Nidever, David L.; Zasowski, Gail

2015-02-01

We investigate the kinematics of stars in the mid-plane of the Milky Way (MW) on scales between 25 pc and 10 kpc with data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), the Radial Velocity Experiment (RAVE), and the Geneva-Copenhagen survey (GCS). Using red-clump (RC) stars in APOGEE, we determine the large-scale line-of-sight velocity field out to 5 kpc from the Sun in (0.75 kpc)2 bins. The solar motion V ⊙ - c with respect to the circular velocity Vc is the largest contribution to the power on large scales after subtracting an axisymmetric rotation field; we determine the solar motion by minimizing the large-scale power to be V ⊙ - c = 24 ± 1 (ran.) ± 2 (syst. [Vc ]) ± 5 (syst.[large-scale]) km s-1, where the systematic uncertainty is due to (1) a conservative 20 km s-1 uncertainty in Vc and (2) the estimated power on unobserved larger scales. Combining the APOGEE peculiar-velocity field with RC stars in RAVE out to 2 kpc from the Sun and with local GCS stars, we determine the power spectrum of residual velocity fluctuations in the MW's disk on scales between 0.2 kpc-1 <= k <= 40 kpc-1. Most of the power is contained in a broad peak between 0.2 kpc-1 < k < 0.9 kpc-1. We investigate the expected power spectrum for various non-axisymmetric perturbations and demonstrate that the central bar with commonly used parameters but of relatively high mass can explain the bulk of velocity fluctuations in the plane of the Galactic disk near the Sun. Streaming motions ≈10 km s-1 on >~ 3 kpc scales in the MW are in good agreement with observations of external galaxies and directly explain why local determinations of the solar motion are inconsistent with global measurements.

Reducing, Maintaining, or Escalating Uncertainty? The Development and Validation of Four Uncertainty Preference Scales Related to Cancer Information Seeking and Avoidance.

PubMed

Carcioppolo, Nick; Yang, Fan; Yang, Qinghua

2016-09-01

Uncertainty is a central characteristic of many aspects of cancer prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Brashers's (2001) uncertainty management theory details the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and describes situations in which uncertainty can both positively and negatively affect health outcomes. The current study extends theory on uncertainty management by developing four scale measures of uncertainty preferences in the context of cancer. Two national surveys were conducted to validate the scales and assess convergent and concurrent validity. Results support the factor structure of each measure and provide general support across multiple validity assessments. These scales can advance research on uncertainty and cancer communication by providing researchers with measures that address multiple aspects of uncertainty management.

A Large-scale Distributed Indexed Learning Framework for Data that Cannot Fit into Memory

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-27

learn a classifier. Integrating three learning techniques (online, semi-supervised and active learning ) together with a selective sampling with minimum communication between the server and the clients solved this problem.

Hierarchical optimal control of large-scale nonlinear chemical processes.

PubMed

Ramezani, Mohammad Hossein; Sadati, Nasser

2009-01-01

In this paper, a new approach is presented for optimal control of large-scale chemical processes. In this approach, the chemical process is decomposed into smaller sub-systems at the first level, and a coordinator at the second level, for which a two-level hierarchical control strategy is designed. For this purpose, each sub-system in the first level can be solved separately, by using any conventional optimization algorithm. In the second level, the solutions obtained from the first level are coordinated using a new gradient-type strategy, which is updated by the error of the coordination vector. The proposed algorithm is used to solve the optimal control problem of a complex nonlinear chemical stirred tank reactor (CSTR), where its solution is also compared with the ones obtained using the centralized approach. The simulation results show the efficiency and the capability of the proposed hierarchical approach, in finding the optimal solution, over the centralized method.

Crowdsourced 'R&D' and medical research.

PubMed

Callaghan, Christian William

2015-09-01

Crowdsourced R&D, a research methodology increasingly applied to medical research, has properties well suited to large-scale medical data collection and analysis, as well as enabling rapid research responses to crises such as disease outbreaks. Multidisciplinary literature offers diverse perspectives of crowdsourced R&D as a useful large-scale medical data collection and research problem-solving methodology. Crowdsourced R&D has demonstrated 'proof of concept' in a host of different biomedical research applications. A wide range of quality and ethical issues relate to crowdsourced R&D. The rapid growth in applications of crowdsourced R&D in medical research is predicted by an increasing body of multidisciplinary theory. Further research in areas such as artificial intelligence may allow better coordination and management of the high volumes of medical data and problem-solving inputs generated by the crowdsourced R&D process. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Efficient Power Network Analysis with Modeling of Inductive Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Shan; Yu, Wenjian; Hong, Xianlong; Cheng, Chung-Kuan

In this paper, an efficient method is proposed to accurately analyze large-scale power/ground (P/G) networks, where inductive parasitics are modeled with the partial reluctance. The method is based on frequency-domain circuit analysis and the technique of vector fitting [14], and obtains the time-domain voltage response at given P/G nodes. The frequency-domain circuit equation including partial reluctances is derived, and then solved with the GMRES algorithm with rescaling, preconditioning and recycling techniques. With the merit of sparsified reluctance matrix and iterative solving techniques for the frequency-domain circuit equations, the proposed method is able to handle large-scale P/G networks with complete inductive modeling. Numerical results show that the proposed method is orders of magnitude faster than HSPICE, several times faster than INDUCTWISE [4], and capable of handling the inductive P/G structures with more than 100, 000 wire segments.

Parallel Domain Decomposition Formulation and Software for Large-Scale Sparse Symmetrical/Unsymmetrical Aeroacoustic Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, D. T.; Watson, Willie R. (Technical Monitor)

2005-01-01

The overall objectives of this research work are to formulate and validate efficient parallel algorithms, and to efficiently design/implement computer software for solving large-scale acoustic problems, arised from the unified frameworks of the finite element procedures. The adopted parallel Finite Element (FE) Domain Decomposition (DD) procedures should fully take advantages of multiple processing capabilities offered by most modern high performance computing platforms for efficient parallel computation. To achieve this objective. the formulation needs to integrate efficient sparse (and dense) assembly techniques, hybrid (or mixed) direct and iterative equation solvers, proper pre-conditioned strategies, unrolling strategies, and effective processors' communicating schemes. Finally, the numerical performance of the developed parallel finite element procedures will be evaluated by solving series of structural, and acoustic (symmetrical and un-symmetrical) problems (in different computing platforms). Comparisons with existing "commercialized" and/or "public domain" software are also included, whenever possible.

Assessing the impact of radiative parameter uncertainty on plant growth simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viskari, T.; Serbin, S.; Dietze, M.; Shiklomanov, A. N.

2015-12-01

Current Earth system models do not adequately project either the magnitude or the sign of carbon fluxes and storage associated with the terrestrial carbon cycle resulting in significant uncertainties in their potential feedbacks on the future climate system. A primary reason for the current uncertainty in these models is the lack of observational constraints of key biomes at relevant spatial and temporal scales. There is an increasingly large and highly resolved amount of remotely sensed observations that can provide the critical model inputs. However, effectively incorporating these data requires the use of radiative transfer models and their associated assumptions. How these parameter assumptions and uncertainties affect model projections for, e.g., leaf physiology, soil temperature or growth has not been examined in depth. In this presentation we discuss the use of high spectral resolution observations at the near surface to landscape scales to inform ecosystem process modeling efforts, particularly the uncertainties related to properties describing the radiation regime within vegetation canopies and the impact on C cycle projections. We illustrate that leaf and wood radiative properties and their associated uncertainties have an important impact on projected forest carbon uptake and storage. We further show the need for a strong data constraint on these properties and discuss sources of this remotely sensed information and methods for data assimilation into models. We present our approach as an efficient means for understanding and correcting implicit assumptions and model structural deficiencies in radiation transfer in vegetation canopies. Ultimately, a better understanding of the radiation balance of ecosystems will improve regional and global scale C and energy balance projections.

Impact of state updating and multi-parametric ensemble for streamflow hindcasting in European river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Rakovec, O.; Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.

2015-12-01

Accurate and reliable streamflow prediction is essential to mitigate social and economic damage coming from water-related disasters such as flood and drought. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. However, if parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by model ensemble may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we evaluate impacts of streamflow data assimilation over European river basins. Especially, a multi-parametric ensemble approach is tested to consider the effects of parametric uncertainty in DA. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be more stable with limited ensemble members and have potential for operational uses. To consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes, lagged particle filtering is utilized. The presentation will be focused on gains and limitations of streamflow data assimilation and multi-parametric ensemble method over large-scale basins.

Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara

2015-09-01

Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the watershed is remarkably improved up to 50% in comparison to the simulations by the individual models. Results indicate that the developed methodology not only provides reliable tools for rainfall and runoff modeling, but also adequate time for incorporating required mitigation measures in dealing with potentially extreme runoff events and flood hazard. Results of this study can be used in identification of the main factors affecting flood hazard analysis.

Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S. N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.

2018-01-01

Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

Dynamic data integration and stochastic inversion of a confined aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Zhang, Y.; Irsa, J.; Huang, H.; Wang, L.

2013-12-01

Much work has been done in developing and applying inverse methods to aquifer modeling. The scope of this paper is to investigate the applicability of a new direct method for large inversion problems and to incorporate uncertainty measures in the inversion outcomes (Wang et al., 2013). The problem considered is a two-dimensional inverse model (50×50 grid) of steady-state flow for a heterogeneous ground truth model (500×500 grid) with two hydrofacies. From the ground truth model, decreasing number of wells (12, 6, 3) were sampled for facies types, based on which experimental indicator histograms and directional variograms were computed. These parameters and models were used by Sequential Indicator Simulation to generate 100 realizations of hydrofacies patterns in a 100×100 (geostatistical) grid, which were conditioned to the facies measurements at wells. These realizations were smoothed with Simulated Annealing, coarsened to the 50×50 inverse grid, before they were conditioned with the direct method to the dynamic data, i.e., observed heads and groundwater fluxes at the same sampled wells. A set of realizations of estimated hydraulic conductivities (Ks), flow fields, and boundary conditions were created, which centered on the 'true' solutions from solving the ground truth model. Both hydrofacies conductivities were computed with an estimation accuracy of ×10% (12 wells), ×20% (6 wells), ×35% (3 wells) of the true values. For boundary condition estimation, the accuracy was within × 15% (12 wells), 30% (6 wells), and 50% (3 wells) of the true values. The inversion system of equations was solved with LSQR (Paige et al, 1982), for which coordinate transform and matrix scaling preprocessor were used to improve the condition number (CN) of the coefficient matrix. However, when the inverse grid was refined to 100×100, Gaussian Noise Perturbation was used to limit the growth of the CN before the matrix solve. To scale the inverse problem up (i.e., without smoothing and coarsening and therefore reducing the associated estimation uncertainty), a parallel LSQR solver was written and verified. For the 50×50 grid, the parallel solver sped up the serial solution time by 14X using 4 CPUs (research on parallel performance and scaling is ongoing). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the relation between the observed data and the inversion outcomes, where measurement errors of increasing magnitudes (i.e., ×1, 2, 5, 10% of the total head variation and up to ×2% of the total flux variation) were imposed on the observed data. Inversion results were stable but the accuracy of Ks and boundary estimation degraded with increasing errors, as expected. In particular, quality of the observed heads is critical to hydraulic head recovery, while quality of the observed fluxes plays a dominant role in K estimation. References: Wang, D., Y. Zhang, J. Irsa, H. Huang, and L. Wang (2013), Data integration and stochastic inversion of a confined aquifer with high performance computing, Advances in Water Resources, in preparation. Paige, C. C., and M. A. Saunders (1982), LSQR: an algorithm for sparse linear equations and sparse least squares, ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software, 8(1), 43-71.

The brightness temperature of Venus and the absolute flux-density scale at 608 MHz.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muhleman, D. O.; Berge, G. L.; Orton, G. S.

1973-01-01

The disk temperature of Venus was measured at 608 MHz near the inferior conjunction of 1972, and a value of 498 plus or minus 33 K was obtained using a nominal CKL flux-density scale. The result is consistent with earlier measurements, but has a much smaller uncertainty. Our theoretical model prediction is larger by a factor of 1.21 plus or minus 0.09. This discrepancy has been noticed previously for frequencies below 1400 MHz, but was generally disregarded because of the large observational uncertainties. No way could be found to change the model to produce agreement without causing a conflict with well-established properties of Venus. Thus it is suggested that the flux-density scale may require an upward revision, at least near this frequency, in excess of what has previously been considered likely.

When smoke gets in our eyes: the multiple impacts of atmospheric black carbon on climate, air quality and health.

PubMed

Highwood, Eleanor J; Kinnersley, Robert P

2006-05-01

With both climate change and air quality on political and social agendas from local to global scale, the links between these hitherto separate fields are becoming more apparent. Black carbon, largely from combustion processes, scatters and absorbs incoming solar radiation, contributes to poor air quality and induces respiratory and cardiovascular problems. Uncertainties in the amount, location, size and shape of atmospheric black carbon cause large uncertainty in both climate change estimates and toxicology studies alike. Increased research has led to new effects and areas of uncertainty being uncovered. Here we draw together recent results and explore the increasing opportunities for synergistic research that will lead to improved confidence in the impact of black carbon on climate change, air quality and human health. Topics of mutual interest include better information on spatial distribution, size, mixing state and measuring and monitoring.

The IAEA coordinated research programme on HTGR uncertainty analysis: Phase I status and Ex. I-1 prismatic reference results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bostelmann, Friederike; Strydom, Gerhard; Reitsma, Frederik

The quantification of uncertainties in design and safety analysis of reactors is today not only broadly accepted, but in many cases became the preferred way to replace traditional conservative analysis for safety and licensing analysis. The use of a more fundamental methodology is also consistent with the reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes available today. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied, in contrast to the historical approach where sensitivity analysis were performed and uncertainties then determined by a simplified statistical combination of a few important inputmore » parameters. New methodologies are currently under development in the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity. High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) designs require specific treatment of the double heterogeneous fuel design and large graphite quantities at high temperatures. The IAEA has therefore launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) in 2013 to study uncertainty propagation specifically in the HTGR analysis chain. Two benchmark problems are defined, with the prismatic design represented by the General Atomics (GA) MHTGR-350 and a 250 MW modular pebble bed design similar to the Chinese HTR-PM. Work has started on the first phase and the current CRP status is reported in the paper. A comparison of the Serpent and SCALE/KENO-VI reference Monte Carlo results for Ex. I-1 of the MHTGR-350 design is also included. It was observed that the SCALE/KENO-VI Continuous Energy (CE) k ∞ values were 395 pcm (Ex. I-1a) to 803 pcm (Ex. I-1b) higher than the respective Serpent lattice calculations, and that within the set of the SCALE results, the KENO-VI 238 Multi-Group (MG) k ∞ values were up to 800 pcm lower than the KENO-VI CE values. The use of the latest ENDF-B-VII.1 cross section library in Serpent lead to ~180 pcm lower k ∞ values compared to the older ENDF-B-VII.0 dataset, caused by the modified graphite neutron capture cross section. Furthermore, the fourth beta release of SCALE 6.2 likewise produced lower CE k∞ values when compared to SCALE 6.1, and the improved performance of the new 252-group library available in SCALE 6.2 is especially noteworthy. A SCALE/TSUNAMI uncertainty analysis of the Hot Full Power variant for Ex. I-1a furthermore concluded that the 238U(n,γ) (capture) and 235U(View the MathML source) cross-section covariance matrices contributed the most to the total k ∞ uncertainty of 0.58%.« less

The IAEA coordinated research programme on HTGR uncertainty analysis: Phase I status and Ex. I-1 prismatic reference results

DOE PAGES

Bostelmann, Friederike; Strydom, Gerhard; Reitsma, Frederik; ...

2016-01-11

The quantification of uncertainties in design and safety analysis of reactors is today not only broadly accepted, but in many cases became the preferred way to replace traditional conservative analysis for safety and licensing analysis. The use of a more fundamental methodology is also consistent with the reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes available today. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied, in contrast to the historical approach where sensitivity analysis were performed and uncertainties then determined by a simplified statistical combination of a few important inputmore » parameters. New methodologies are currently under development in the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity. High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) designs require specific treatment of the double heterogeneous fuel design and large graphite quantities at high temperatures. The IAEA has therefore launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) in 2013 to study uncertainty propagation specifically in the HTGR analysis chain. Two benchmark problems are defined, with the prismatic design represented by the General Atomics (GA) MHTGR-350 and a 250 MW modular pebble bed design similar to the Chinese HTR-PM. Work has started on the first phase and the current CRP status is reported in the paper. A comparison of the Serpent and SCALE/KENO-VI reference Monte Carlo results for Ex. I-1 of the MHTGR-350 design is also included. It was observed that the SCALE/KENO-VI Continuous Energy (CE) k ∞ values were 395 pcm (Ex. I-1a) to 803 pcm (Ex. I-1b) higher than the respective Serpent lattice calculations, and that within the set of the SCALE results, the KENO-VI 238 Multi-Group (MG) k ∞ values were up to 800 pcm lower than the KENO-VI CE values. The use of the latest ENDF-B-VII.1 cross section library in Serpent lead to ~180 pcm lower k ∞ values compared to the older ENDF-B-VII.0 dataset, caused by the modified graphite neutron capture cross section. Furthermore, the fourth beta release of SCALE 6.2 likewise produced lower CE k∞ values when compared to SCALE 6.1, and the improved performance of the new 252-group library available in SCALE 6.2 is especially noteworthy. A SCALE/TSUNAMI uncertainty analysis of the Hot Full Power variant for Ex. I-1a furthermore concluded that the 238U(n,γ) (capture) and 235U(View the MathML source) cross-section covariance matrices contributed the most to the total k ∞ uncertainty of 0.58%.« less

An efficient assisted history matching and uncertainty quantification workflow using Gaussian processes proxy models and variogram based sensitivity analysis: GP-VARS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Sachin; Ertekin, Turgay; King, Gregory R.

2018-05-01

Reservoir history matching is frequently viewed as an optimization problem which involves minimizing misfit between simulated and observed data. Many gradient and evolutionary strategy based optimization algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem which typically require a large number of numerical simulations to find feasible solutions. Therefore, a new methodology referred to as GP-VARS is proposed in this study which uses forward and inverse Gaussian processes (GP) based proxy models combined with a novel application of variogram analysis of response surface (VARS) based sensitivity analysis to efficiently solve high dimensional history matching problems. Empirical Bayes approach is proposed to optimally train GP proxy models for any given data. The history matching solutions are found via Bayesian optimization (BO) on forward GP models and via predictions of inverse GP model in an iterative manner. An uncertainty quantification method using MCMC sampling in conjunction with GP model is also presented to obtain a probabilistic estimate of reservoir properties and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). An application of the proposed GP-VARS methodology on PUNQ-S3 reservoir is presented in which it is shown that GP-VARS provides history match solutions in approximately four times less numerical simulations as compared to the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. Furthermore, a comparison of uncertainty quantification results obtained by GP-VARS, EnKF and other previously published methods shows that the P50 estimate of oil EUR obtained by GP-VARS is in close agreement to the true values for the PUNQ-S3 reservoir.

Uncertainty estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationships: A regional analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mélèse, Victor; Blanchet, Juliette; Molinié, Gilles

2018-03-01

We propose in this article a regional study of uncertainties in IDF curves derived from point-rainfall maxima. We develop two generalized extreme value models based on the simple scaling assumption, first in the frequentist framework and second in the Bayesian framework. Within the frequentist framework, uncertainties are obtained i) from the Gaussian density stemming from the asymptotic normality theorem of the maximum likelihood and ii) with a bootstrap procedure. Within the Bayesian framework, uncertainties are obtained from the posterior densities. We confront these two frameworks on the same database covering a large region of 100, 000 km2 in southern France with contrasted rainfall regime, in order to be able to draw conclusion that are not specific to the data. The two frameworks are applied to 405 hourly stations with data back to the 1980's, accumulated in the range 3 h-120 h. We show that i) the Bayesian framework is more robust than the frequentist one to the starting point of the estimation procedure, ii) the posterior and the bootstrap densities are able to better adjust uncertainty estimation to the data than the Gaussian density, and iii) the bootstrap density give unreasonable confidence intervals, in particular for return levels associated to large return period. Therefore our recommendation goes towards the use of the Bayesian framework to compute uncertainty.

Application of shifted Jacobi pseudospectral method for solving (in)finite-horizon min-max optimal control problems with uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikooeinejad, Z.; Delavarkhalafi, A.; Heydari, M.

2018-03-01

The difficulty of solving the min-max optimal control problems (M-MOCPs) with uncertainty using generalised Euler-Lagrange equations is caused by the combination of split boundary conditions, nonlinear differential equations and the manner in which the final time is treated. In this investigation, the shifted Jacobi pseudospectral method (SJPM) as a numerical technique for solving two-point boundary value problems (TPBVPs) in M-MOCPs for several boundary states is proposed. At first, a novel framework of approximate solutions which satisfied the split boundary conditions automatically for various boundary states is presented. Then, by applying the generalised Euler-Lagrange equations and expanding the required approximate solutions as elements of shifted Jacobi polynomials, finding a solution of TPBVPs in nonlinear M-MOCPs with uncertainty is reduced to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. Moreover, the Jacobi polynomials are particularly useful for boundary value problems in unbounded domain, which allow us to solve infinite- as well as finite and free final time problems by domain truncation method. Some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. A comparative study between the proposed method and other existing methods shows that the SJPM is simple and accurate.

Predicting carbon benefits from climate-smart agriculture: High-resolution carbon mapping and uncertainty assessment in El Salvador.

PubMed

Kearney, Sean Patrick; Coops, Nicholas C; Chan, Kai M A; Fonte, Steven J; Siles, Pablo; Smukler, Sean M

2017-11-01

Agroforestry management in smallholder agriculture can provide climate change mitigation and adaptation benefits and has been promoted as 'climate-smart agriculture' (CSA), yet has generally been left out of international and voluntary carbon (C) mitigation agreements. A key reason for this omission is the cost and uncertainty of monitoring C at the farm scale in heterogeneous smallholder landscapes. A largely overlooked alternative is to monitor C at more aggregated scales and develop C contracts with groups of land owners, community organizations or C aggregators working across entire landscapes (e.g., watersheds, communities, municipalities, etc.). In this study we use a 100-km 2 agricultural area in El Salvador to demonstrate how high-spatial resolution optical satellite imagery can be used to map aboveground woody biomass (AGWB) C at the landscape scale with very low uncertainty (95% probability of a deviation of less than 1%). Uncertainty of AGWB-C estimates remained low (<5%) for areas as small as 250 ha, despite high uncertainties at the farm and plot scale (34-99%). We estimate that CSA adoption could more than double AGWB-C stocks on agricultural lands in the study area, and that utilizing AGWB-C maps to target denuded areas could increase C gains per unit area by 46%. The potential value of C credits under a plausible adoption scenario would range from $38,270 to $354,000 yr -1 for the study area, or about $13 to $124 ha -1  yr -1 , depending on C prices. Considering farm sizes in smallholder landscapes rarely exceed 1-2 ha, relying solely on direct C payments to farmers may not lead to widespread CSA adoption, especially if farm-scale monitoring is required. Instead, landscape-scale approaches to C contracting, supported by satellite-based monitoring methods such as ours, could be a key strategy to reduce costs and uncertainty of C monitoring in heterogeneous smallholder landscapes, thereby incentivizing more widespread CSA adoption. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Application of the SCALE TSUNAMI Tools for the Validation of Criticality Safety Calculations Involving 233U

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mueller, Don; Rearden, Bradley T; Hollenbach, Daniel F

2009-02-01

The Radiochemical Development Facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been storing solid materials containing 233U for decades. Preparations are under way to process these materials into a form that is inherently safe from a nuclear criticality safety perspective. This will be accomplished by down-blending the {sup 233}U materials with depleted or natural uranium. At the request of the U.S. Department of Energy, a study has been performed using the SCALE sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools to demonstrate how these tools could be used to validate nuclear criticality safety calculations of selected process and storage configurations. ISOTEK nuclear criticality safetymore » staff provided four models that are representative of the criticality safety calculations for which validation will be needed. The SCALE TSUNAMI-1D and TSUNAMI-3D sequences were used to generate energy-dependent k{sub eff} sensitivity profiles for each nuclide and reaction present in the four safety analysis models, also referred to as the applications, and in a large set of critical experiments. The SCALE TSUNAMI-IP module was used together with the sensitivity profiles and the cross-section uncertainty data contained in the SCALE covariance data files to propagate the cross-section uncertainties ({Delta}{sigma}/{sigma}) to k{sub eff} uncertainties ({Delta}k/k) for each application model. The SCALE TSUNAMI-IP module was also used to evaluate the similarity of each of the 672 critical experiments with each application. Results of the uncertainty analysis and similarity assessment are presented in this report. A total of 142 experiments were judged to be similar to application 1, and 68 experiments were judged to be similar to application 2. None of the 672 experiments were judged to be adequately similar to applications 3 and 4. Discussion of the uncertainty analysis and similarity assessment is provided for each of the four applications. Example upper subcritical limits (USLs) were generated for application 1 based on trending of the energy of average lethargy of neutrons causing fission, trending of the TSUNAMI similarity parameters, and use of data adjustment techniques.« less

Software environment for implementing engineering applications on MIMD computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopez, L. A.; Valimohamed, K. A.; Schiff, S.

1990-01-01

In this paper the concept for a software environment for developing engineering application systems for multiprocessor hardware (MIMD) is presented. The philosophy employed is to solve the largest problems possible in a reasonable amount of time, rather than solve existing problems faster. In the proposed environment most of the problems concerning parallel computation and handling of large distributed data spaces are hidden from the application program developer, thereby facilitating the development of large-scale software applications. Applications developed under the environment can be executed on a variety of MIMD hardware; it protects the application software from the effects of a rapidly changing MIMD hardware technology.

Robust Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Based on Reachability Analysis in an Optimal Control Formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lombaerts, Thomas; Schuet, Stefan R.; Wheeler, Kevin; Acosta, Diana; Kaneshige, John

2013-01-01

This paper discusses an algorithm for estimating the safe maneuvering envelope of damaged aircraft. The algorithm performs a robust reachability analysis through an optimal control formulation while making use of time scale separation and taking into account uncertainties in the aerodynamic derivatives. Starting with an optimal control formulation, the optimization problem can be rewritten as a Hamilton- Jacobi-Bellman equation. This equation can be solved by level set methods. This approach has been applied on an aircraft example involving structural airframe damage. Monte Carlo validation tests have confirmed that this approach is successful in estimating the safe maneuvering envelope for damaged aircraft.

Multi-criteria analysis of potential recovery facilities in a reverse supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nukala, Satish; Gupta, Surendra M.

2005-11-01

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been employed by researchers for solving multi-criteria analysis problems. However, AHP is often criticized for its unbalanced scale of judgments and failure to precisely handle the inherent uncertainty and vagueness in carrying out the pair-wise comparisons. With an objective to address these drawbacks, in this paper, we employ a fuzzy approach in selecting potential recovery facilities in the strategic planning of a reverse supply chain network that addresses the decision maker's level of confidence in the fuzzy assessments and his/her attitude towards risk. A numerical example is considered to illustrate the methodology.

A Bayesian Framework for Coupled Estimation of Key Unknown Parameters of Land Water and Energy Balance Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhadi, L.; Abdolghafoorian, A.

2015-12-01

The land surface is a key component of climate system. It controls the partitioning of available energy at the surface between sensible and latent heat, and partitioning of available water between evaporation and runoff. Water and energy cycle are intrinsically coupled through evaporation, which represents a heat exchange as latent heat flux. Accurate estimation of fluxes of heat and moisture are of significant importance in many fields such as hydrology, climatology and meteorology. In this study we develop and apply a Bayesian framework for estimating the key unknown parameters of terrestrial water and energy balance equations (i.e. moisture and heat diffusion) and their uncertainty in land surface models. These equations are coupled through flux of evaporation. The estimation system is based on the adjoint method for solving a least-squares optimization problem. The cost function consists of aggregated errors on state (i.e. moisture and temperature) with respect to observation and parameters estimation with respect to prior values over the entire assimilation period. This cost function is minimized with respect to parameters to identify models of sensible heat, latent heat/evaporation and drainage and runoff. Inverse of Hessian of the cost function is an approximation of the posterior uncertainty of parameter estimates. Uncertainty of estimated fluxes is estimated by propagating the uncertainty for linear and nonlinear function of key parameters through the method of First Order Second Moment (FOSM). Uncertainty analysis is used in this method to guide the formulation of a well-posed estimation problem. Accuracy of the method is assessed at point scale using surface energy and water fluxes generated by the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model at the selected AmeriFlux stations. This method can be applied to diverse climates and land surface conditions with different spatial scales, using remotely sensed measurements of surface moisture and temperature states

A determination of the charm content of the proton: The NNPDF Collaboration.

PubMed

Ball, Richard D; Bertone, Valerio; Bonvini, Marco; Carrazza, Stefano; Forte, Stefano; Guffanti, Alberto; Hartland, Nathan P; Rojo, Juan; Rottoli, Luca

2016-01-01

We present an unbiased determination of the charm content of the proton, in which the charm parton distribution function (PDF) is parametrized on the same footing as the light quarks and the gluon in a global PDF analysis. This determination relies on the NLO calculation of deep-inelastic structure functions in the FONLL scheme, generalized to account for massive charm-initiated contributions. When the EMC charm structure function dataset is included, it is well described by the fit, and PDF uncertainties in the fitted charm PDF are significantly reduced. We then find that the fitted charm PDF vanishes within uncertainties at a scale [Formula: see text] GeV for all [Formula: see text], independent of the value of [Formula: see text] used in the coefficient functions. We also find some evidence that the charm PDF at large [Formula: see text] and low scales does not vanish, but rather has an "intrinsic" component, very weakly scale dependent and almost independent of the value of [Formula: see text], carrying less than [Formula: see text] of the total momentum of the proton. The uncertainties in all other PDFs are only slightly increased by the inclusion of fitted charm, while the dependence of these PDFs on [Formula: see text] is reduced. The increased stability with respect to [Formula: see text] persists at high scales and is the main implication of our results for LHC phenomenology. Our results show that if the EMC data are correct, then the usual approach in which charm is perturbatively generated leads to biased results for the charm PDF, though at small x this bias could be reabsorbed if the uncertainty due to the charm mass and missing higher orders were included. We show that LHC data for processes, such as high [Formula: see text] and large rapidity charm pair production and [Formula: see text] production, have the potential to confirm or disprove the implications of the EMC data.

Reducing Risk in CO2 Sequestration: A Framework for Integrated Monitoring of Basin Scale Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, C. J.; Haidari, A. S.; McRae, G. J.

2009-12-01

Geological sequestration of CO2 is an option for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Technical ability to safely store CO2 in the subsurface has been demonstrated through pilot projects and a long history of enhanced oil recovery and acid gas disposal operations. To address climate change, current injection operations must be scaled up by a factor of 100, raising issues of safety and security. Monitoring and verification is an essential component in ensuring safe operations and managing risk. Monitoring provides assurance that CO2 is securely stored in the subsurface, and the mechanisms governing transport and storage are well understood. It also provides an early warning mechanism for identification of anomalies in performance, and a means for intervention and remediation through the ability to locate the CO2. Through theoretical studies, bench scale experiments and pilot tests, a number of technologies have demonstrated their ability to monitor CO2 in the surface and subsurface. Because the focus of these studies has been to demonstrate feasibility, individual techniques have not been integrated to provide a more robust method for monitoring. Considering the large volumes required for injection, size of the potential footprint, length of time a project must be monitored and uncertainty, operational considerations of cost and risk must balance safety and security. Integration of multiple monitoring techniques will reduce uncertainty in monitoring injected CO2, thereby reducing risk. We present a framework for risk management of large scale injection through model based monitoring network design. This framework is applied to monitoring CO2 in a synthetic reservoir where there is uncertainty in the underlying permeability field controlling fluid migration. Deformation and seismic data are used to track plume migration. A modified Ensemble Kalman filter approach is used to estimate flow properties by jointly assimilating flow and geomechanical observations. Issues of risk, cost and uncertainty are considered.

A new retrieval algorithm for tropospheric temperature, humidity and pressure profiling based on GNSS radio occultation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchengast, Gottfried; Li, Ying; Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Schwärz, Marc; Schwarz, Jakob; Nielsen, Johannes K.

2017-04-01

The GNSS radio occultation (RO) technique is an important remote sensing technique for obtaining thermodynamic profiles of temperature, humidity, and pressure in the Earth's troposphere. However, due to refraction effects of both dry ambient air and water vapor in the troposphere, retrieval of accurate thermodynamic profiles at these lower altitudes is challenging and requires suitable background information in addition to the RO refractivity information. Here we introduce a new moist air retrieval algorithm aiming to improve the quality and robustness of retrieving temperature, humidity and pressure profiles in moist air tropospheric conditions. The new algorithm consists of four steps: (1) use of prescribed specific humidity and its uncertainty to retrieve temperature and its associated uncertainty; (2) use of prescribed temperature and its uncertainty to retrieve specific humidity and its associated uncertainty; (3) use of the previous results to estimate final temperature and specific humidity profiles through optimal estimation; (4) determination of air pressure and density profiles from the results obtained before. The new algorithm does not require elaborated matrix inversions which are otherwise widely used in 1D-Var retrieval algorithms, and it allows a transparent uncertainty propagation, whereby the uncertainties of prescribed variables are dynamically estimated accounting for their spatial and temporal variations. Estimated random uncertainties are calculated by constructing error covariance matrices from co-located ECMWF short-range forecast and corresponding analysis profiles. Systematic uncertainties are estimated by empirical modeling. The influence of regarding or disregarding vertical error correlations is quantified. The new scheme is implemented with static input uncertainty profiles in WEGC's current OPSv5.6 processing system and with full scope in WEGC's next-generation system, the Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS). Results from both WEGC systems, current OPSv5.6 and next-generation rOPS, are shown and discussed, based on both insights from individual profiles and statistical ensembles, and compared to moist air retrieval results from the UCAR Boulder and ROM-SAF Copenhagen centers. The results show that the new algorithmic scheme improves the temperature, humidity and pressure retrieval performance, in particular also the robustness including for integrated uncertainty estimation for large-scale applications, over the previous algorithms. The new rOPS-implemented algorithm will therefore be used in the first large-scale reprocessing towards a tropospheric climate data record 2001-2016 by the rOPS, including its integrated uncertainty propagation.

Analyzing extreme sea levels for broad-scale impact and adaptation studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.

2017-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels (ESL), because increasing damage due to extreme events is one of the major consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) and climate change. Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future SLR; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact studies at various temporal and spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. Uncertainties in future SLR are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios and model ensembles. ESL distributions are then displaced vertically according to the SLR scenarios under the inherent assumption that we have perfect knowledge on the statistics of extremes. However, there is still a limited understanding of present-day ESL which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of storm surge water levels, and (2) statistical models used for determining present-day ESL exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for broad-scale flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored SLR uncertainties, we quantify, for the first time globally, key uncertainties in ESL estimates. We find that contemporary ESL uncertainties exceed those from SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century. Our results highlight the necessity to further improve our understanding of uncertainties in ESL estimates through (1) continued improvement of numerical and statistical models to simulate and analyze coastal water levels and (2) exploit the rich observational database and continue data archeology to obtain longer time series and remove model bias. Finally, ESL uncertainties need to be integrated with SLR uncertainties. Otherwise, important improvements in providing more robust SLR projections are of less benefit for broad-scale impact and adaptation studies and decision processes.

Tropospheric transport differences between models using the same large-scale meteorological fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orbe, Clara; Waugh, Darryn W.; Yang, Huang; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone; Kinnison, Douglas E.

2017-01-01

The transport of chemicals is a major uncertainty in the modeling of tropospheric composition. A common approach is to transport gases using the winds from meteorological analyses, either using them directly in a chemical transport model or by constraining the flow in a general circulation model. Here we compare the transport of idealized tracers in several different models that use the same meteorological fields taken from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We show that, even though the models use the same meteorological fields, there are substantial differences in their global-scale tropospheric transport related to large differences in parameterized convection between the simulations. Furthermore, we find that the transport differences between simulations constrained with the same-large scale flow are larger than differences between free-running simulations, which have differing large-scale flow but much more similar convective mass fluxes. Our results indicate that more attention needs to be paid to convective parameterizations in order to understand large-scale tropospheric transport in models, particularly in simulations constrained with analyzed winds.

Computation of Large-Scale Structure Jet Noise Sources With Weak Nonlinear Effects Using Linear Euler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dahl, Milo D.; Hixon, Ray; Mankbadi, Reda R.

2003-01-01

An approximate technique is presented for the prediction of the large-scale turbulent structure sound source in a supersonic jet. A linearized Euler equations code is used to solve for the flow disturbances within and near a jet with a given mean flow. Assuming a normal mode composition for the wave-like disturbances, the linear radial profiles are used in an integration of the Navier-Stokes equations. This results in a set of ordinary differential equations representing the weakly nonlinear self-interactions of the modes along with their interaction with the mean flow. Solutions are then used to correct the amplitude of the disturbances that represent the source of large-scale turbulent structure sound in the jet.

Robust distributed model predictive control of linear systems with structured time-varying uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Langwen; Xie, Wei; Wang, Jingcheng

2017-11-01

In this work, synthesis of robust distributed model predictive control (MPC) is presented for a class of linear systems subject to structured time-varying uncertainties. By decomposing a global system into smaller dimensional subsystems, a set of distributed MPC controllers, instead of a centralised controller, are designed. To ensure the robust stability of the closed-loop system with respect to model uncertainties, distributed state feedback laws are obtained by solving a min-max optimisation problem. The design of robust distributed MPC is then transformed into solving a minimisation optimisation problem with linear matrix inequality constraints. An iterative online algorithm with adjustable maximum iteration is proposed to coordinate the distributed controllers to achieve a global performance. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed robust distributed MPC algorithm.

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions for the European region in the past millennium (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, E.

2009-12-01

One of the objectives when comparing simulations of past climates to proxy-based climate reconstructions is to asses the skill of climate models to simulate climate change. This comparison may accomplished at large spatial scales, for instance the evolution of simulated and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature, or at regional or point scales. In both approaches a 'fair' comparison has to take into account different aspects that affect the inevitable uncertainties and biases in the simulations and in the reconstructions. These efforts face a trade-off: climate models are believed to be more skillful at large hemispheric scales, but climate reconstructions are these scales are burdened by the spatial distribution of available proxies and by methodological issues surrounding the statistical method used to translate the proxy information into large-spatial averages. Furthermore, the internal climatic noise at large hemispheric scales is low, so that the sampling uncertainty tends to be also low. On the other hand, the skill of climate models at regional scales is limited by the coarse spatial resolution, which hinders a faithful representation of aspects important for the regional climate. At small spatial scales, the reconstruction of past climate probably faces less methodological problems if information from different proxies is available. The internal climatic variability at regional scales is, however, high. In this contribution some examples of the different issues faced when comparing simulation and reconstructions at small spatial scales in the past millennium are discussed. These examples comprise reconstructions from dendrochronological data and from historical documentary data in Europe and climate simulations with global and regional models. These examples indicate that the centennial climate variations can offer a reasonable target to assess the skill of global climate models and of proxy-based reconstructions, even at small spatial scales. However, as the focus shifts towards higher frequency variability, decadal or multidecadal, the need for larger simulation ensembles becomes more evident. Nevertheless,the comparison at these time scales may expose some lines of research on the origin of multidecadal regional climate variability.

Methane emissions from global wetlands: An assessment of the uncertainty associated with various wetland extent data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bowen; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Chen, Guangsheng; Pan, Shufen; Anderson, Christopher; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-09-01

A wide range of estimates on global wetland methane (CH4) fluxes has been reported during the recent two decades. This gives rise to urgent needs to clarify and identify the uncertainty sources, and conclude a reconciled estimate for global CH4 fluxes from wetlands. Most estimates by using bottom-up approach rely on wetland data sets, but these data sets show largely inconsistent in terms of both wetland extent and spatiotemporal distribution. A quantitative assessment of uncertainties associated with these discrepancies among wetland data sets has not been well investigated yet. By comparing the five widely used global wetland data sets (GISS, GLWD, Kaplan, GIEMS and SWAMPS-GLWD), it this study, we found large differences in the wetland extent, ranging from 5.3 to 10.2 million km2, as well as their spatial and temporal distributions among the five data sets. These discrepancies in wetland data sets resulted in large bias in model-estimated global wetland CH4 emissions as simulated by using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). The model simulations indicated that the mean global wetland CH4 emissions during 2000-2007 were 177.2 ± 49.7 Tg CH4 yr-1, based on the five different data sets. The tropical regions contributed the largest portion of estimated CH4 emissions from global wetlands, but also had the largest discrepancy. Among six continents, the largest uncertainty was found in South America. Thus, the improved estimates of wetland extent and CH4 emissions in the tropical regions and South America would be a critical step toward an accurate estimate of global CH4 emissions. This uncertainty analysis also reveals an important need for our scientific community to generate a global scale wetland data set with higher spatial resolution and shorter time interval, by integrating multiple sources of field and satellite data with modeling approaches, for cross-scale extrapolation.

Corrective Control to Handle Forecast Uncertainty: A Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roald, Line; Misra, Sidhant; Krause, Thilo

Higher shares of electricity generation from renewable energy sources and market liberalization is increasing uncertainty in power systems operation. At the same time, operation is becoming more flexible with improved control systems and new technology such as phase shifting transformers (PSTs) and high voltage direct current connections (HVDC). Previous studies have shown that the use of corrective control in response to outages contributes to a reduction in operating cost, while maintaining N-1 security. In this work, we propose a method to extend the use of corrective control of PSTs and HVDCs to react to uncertainty. We characterize the uncertainty asmore » continuous random variables, and define the corrective control actions through affine control policies. This allows us to efficiently model control reactions to a large number of uncertainty sources. The control policies are then included in a chance constrained optimal power flow formulation, which guarantees that the system constraints are enforced with a desired probability. Lastly, by applying an analytical reformulation of the chance constraints, we obtain a second-order cone problem for which we develop an efficient solution algorithm. In a case study for the IEEE 118 bus system, we show that corrective control for uncertainty leads to a decrease in operational cost, while maintaining system security. Further, we demonstrate the scalability of the method by solving the problem for the IEEE 300 bus and the Polish system test cases.« less

Corrective Control to Handle Forecast Uncertainty: A Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow

DOE PAGES

Roald, Line; Misra, Sidhant; Krause, Thilo; ...

2016-08-25

Higher shares of electricity generation from renewable energy sources and market liberalization is increasing uncertainty in power systems operation. At the same time, operation is becoming more flexible with improved control systems and new technology such as phase shifting transformers (PSTs) and high voltage direct current connections (HVDC). Previous studies have shown that the use of corrective control in response to outages contributes to a reduction in operating cost, while maintaining N-1 security. In this work, we propose a method to extend the use of corrective control of PSTs and HVDCs to react to uncertainty. We characterize the uncertainty asmore » continuous random variables, and define the corrective control actions through affine control policies. This allows us to efficiently model control reactions to a large number of uncertainty sources. The control policies are then included in a chance constrained optimal power flow formulation, which guarantees that the system constraints are enforced with a desired probability. Lastly, by applying an analytical reformulation of the chance constraints, we obtain a second-order cone problem for which we develop an efficient solution algorithm. In a case study for the IEEE 118 bus system, we show that corrective control for uncertainty leads to a decrease in operational cost, while maintaining system security. Further, we demonstrate the scalability of the method by solving the problem for the IEEE 300 bus and the Polish system test cases.« less

Solution of matrix equations using sparse techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baddourah, Majdi

1994-01-01

The solution of large systems of matrix equations is key to the solution of a large number of scientific and engineering problems. This talk describes the sparse matrix solver developed at Langley which can routinely solve in excess of 263,000 equations in 40 seconds on one Cray C-90 processor. It appears that for large scale structural analysis applications, sparse matrix methods have a significant performance advantage over other methods.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chow, Edmond

Solving sparse problems is at the core of many DOE computational science applications. We focus on the challenge of developing sparse algorithms that can fully exploit the parallelism in extreme-scale computing systems, in particular systems with massive numbers of cores per node. Our approach is to express a sparse matrix factorization as a large number of bilinear constraint equations, and then solving these equations via an asynchronous iterative method. The unknowns in these equations are the matrix entries of the factorization that is desired.

Intelligent robust control for uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems and its application to robotic systems.

PubMed

Chang, Yeong-Chan

2005-12-01

This paper addresses the problem of designing adaptive fuzzy-based (or neural network-based) robust controls for a large class of uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems. This class of systems can be perturbed by plant uncertainties, unmodeled perturbations, and external disturbances. Nonlinear H(infinity) control technique incorporated with adaptive control technique and VSC technique is employed to construct the intelligent robust stabilization controller such that an H(infinity) control is achieved. The problem of the robust tracking control design for uncertain robotic systems is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed robust stabilization control scheme. Therefore, an intelligent robust tracking controller for uncertain robotic systems in the presence of high-degree uncertainties can easily be implemented. Its solution requires only to solve a linear algebraic matrix inequality and a satisfactorily transient and asymptotical tracking performance is guaranteed. A simulation example is made to confirm the performance of the developed control algorithms.

Analysis of the Efficacy of an Intervention to Improve Parent-Adolescent Problem Solving

PubMed Central

Semeniuk, Yulia Yuriyivna; Brown, Roger L.; Riesch, Susan K.

2016-01-01

We conducted a two-group longitudinal partially nested randomized controlled trial to examine whether young adolescent youth-parent dyads participating in Mission Possible: Parents and Kids Who Listen, in contrast to a comparison group, would demonstrate improved problem solving skill. The intervention is based on the Circumplex Model and Social Problem Solving Theory. The Circumplex Model posits that families who are balanced, that is characterized by high cohesion and flexibility and open communication, function best. Social Problem Solving Theory informs the process and skills of problem solving. The Conditional Latent Growth Modeling analysis revealed no statistically significant differences in problem solving among the final sample of 127 dyads in the intervention and comparison groups. Analyses of effect sizes indicated large magnitude group effects for selected scales for youth and dyads portraying a potential for efficacy and identifying for whom the intervention may be efficacious if study limitations and lessons learned were addressed. PMID:26936844

Total-variation based velocity inversion with Bregmanized operator splitting algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zand, Toktam; Gholami, Ali

2018-04-01

Many problems in applied geophysics can be formulated as a linear inverse problem. The associated problems, however, are large-scale and ill-conditioned. Therefore, regularization techniques are needed to be employed for solving them and generating a stable and acceptable solution. We consider numerical methods for solving such problems in this paper. In order to tackle the ill-conditioning of the problem we use blockiness as a prior information of the subsurface parameters and formulate the problem as a constrained total variation (TV) regularization. The Bregmanized operator splitting (BOS) algorithm as a combination of the Bregman iteration and the proximal forward backward operator splitting method is developed to solve the arranged problem. Two main advantages of this new algorithm are that no matrix inversion is required and that a discrepancy stopping criterion is used to stop the iterations, which allow efficient solution of large-scale problems. The high performance of the proposed TV regularization method is demonstrated using two different experiments: 1) velocity inversion from (synthetic) seismic data which is based on Born approximation, 2) computing interval velocities from RMS velocities via Dix formula. Numerical examples are presented to verify the feasibility of the proposed method for high-resolution velocity inversion.

Internet computer coaches for introductory physics problem solving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu Ryan, Qing

The ability to solve problems in a variety of contexts is becoming increasingly important in our rapidly changing technological society. Problem-solving is a complex process that is important for everyday life and crucial for learning physics. Although there is a great deal of effort to improve student problem solving skills throughout the educational system, national studies have shown that the majority of students emerge from such courses having made little progress toward developing good problem-solving skills. The Physics Education Research Group at the University of Minnesota has been developing Internet computer coaches to help students become more expert-like problem solvers. During the Fall 2011 and Spring 2013 semesters, the coaches were introduced into large sections (200+ students) of the calculus based introductory mechanics course at the University of Minnesota. This dissertation, will address the research background of the project, including the pedagogical design of the coaches and the assessment of problem solving. The methodological framework of conducting experiments will be explained. The data collected from the large-scale experimental studies will be discussed from the following aspects: the usage and usability of these coaches; the usefulness perceived by students; and the usefulness measured by final exam and problem solving rubric. It will also address the implications drawn from this study, including using this data to direct future coach design and difficulties in conducting authentic assessment of problem-solving.

The Multi-Step CADIS method for shutdown dose rate calculations and uncertainty propagation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ibrahim, Ahmad M.; Peplow, Douglas E.; Grove, Robert E.

2015-12-01

Shutdown dose rate (SDDR) analysis requires (a) a neutron transport calculation to estimate neutron flux fields, (b) an activation calculation to compute radionuclide inventories and associated photon sources, and (c) a photon transport calculation to estimate final SDDR. In some applications, accurate full-scale Monte Carlo (MC) SDDR simulations are needed for very large systems with massive amounts of shielding materials. However, these simulations are impractical because calculation of space- and energy-dependent neutron fluxes throughout the structural materials is needed to estimate distribution of radioisotopes causing the SDDR. Biasing the neutron MC calculation using an importance function is not simple becausemore » it is difficult to explicitly express the response function, which depends on subsequent computational steps. Furthermore, the typical SDDR calculations do not consider how uncertainties in MC neutron calculation impact SDDR uncertainty, even though MC neutron calculation uncertainties usually dominate SDDR uncertainty.« less

[Dual process in large number estimation under uncertainty].

PubMed

Matsumuro, Miki; Miwa, Kazuhisa; Terai, Hitoshi; Yamada, Kento

2016-08-01

According to dual process theory, there are two systems in the mind: an intuitive and automatic System 1 and a logical and effortful System 2. While many previous studies about number estimation have focused on simple heuristics and automatic processes, the deliberative System 2 process has not been sufficiently studied. This study focused on the System 2 process for large number estimation. First, we described an estimation process based on participants’ verbal reports. The task, corresponding to the problem-solving process, consisted of creating subgoals, retrieving values, and applying operations. Second, we investigated the influence of such deliberative process by System 2 on intuitive estimation by System 1, using anchoring effects. The results of the experiment showed that the System 2 process could mitigate anchoring effects.

MHD Modeling of the Solar Wind with Turbulence Transport and Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, M. L.; Usmanov, A. V.; Matthaeus, W. H.; Breech, B.

2009-01-01

We have developed a magnetohydrodynamic model that describes the global axisymmetric steady-state structure of the solar wind near solar minimum with account for transport of small-scale turbulence associated heating. The Reynolds-averaged mass, momentum, induction, and energy equations for the large-scale solar wind flow are solved simultaneously with the turbulence transport equations in the region from 0.3 to 100 AU. The large-scale equations include subgrid-scale terms due to turbulence and the turbulence (small-scale) equations describe the effects of transport and (phenomenologically) dissipation of the MHD turbulence based on a few statistical parameters (turbulence energy, normalized cross-helicity, and correlation scale). The coupled set of equations is integrated numerically for a source dipole field on the Sun by a time-relaxation method in the corotating frame of reference. We present results on the plasma, magnetic field, and turbulence distributions throughout the heliosphere and on the role of the turbulence in the large-scale structure and temperature distribution in the solar wind.

Understanding the core-halo relation of quantum wave dark matter from 3D simulations.

PubMed

Schive, Hsi-Yu; Liao, Ming-Hsuan; Woo, Tak-Pong; Wong, Shing-Kwong; Chiueh, Tzihong; Broadhurst, Tom; Hwang, W-Y Pauchy

2014-12-31

We examine the nonlinear structure of gravitationally collapsed objects that form in our simulations of wavelike cold dark matter, described by the Schrödinger-Poisson (SP) equation with a particle mass ∼10(-22)  eV. A distinct gravitationally self-bound solitonic core is found at the center of every halo, with a profile quite different from cores modeled in the warm or self-interacting dark matter scenarios. Furthermore, we show that each solitonic core is surrounded by an extended halo composed of large fluctuating dark matter granules which modulate the halo density on a scale comparable to the diameter of the solitonic core. The scaling symmetry of the SP equation and the uncertainty principle tightly relate the core mass to the halo specific energy, which, in the context of cosmological structure formation, leads to a simple scaling between core mass (Mc) and halo mass (Mh), Mc∝a(-1/2)Mh(1/3), where a is the cosmic scale factor. We verify this scaling relation by (i) examining the internal structure of a statistical sample of virialized halos that form in our 3D cosmological simulations and by (ii) merging multiple solitons to create individual virialized objects. Sufficient simulation resolution is achieved by adaptive mesh refinement and graphic processing units acceleration. From this scaling relation, present dwarf satellite galaxies are predicted to have kiloparsec-sized cores and a minimum mass of ∼10(8)M⊙, capable of solving the small-scale controversies in the cold dark matter model. Moreover, galaxies of 2×10(12)M⊙ at z=8 should have massive solitonic cores of ∼2×10(9)M⊙ within ∼60  pc. Such cores can provide a favorable local environment for funneling the gas that leads to the prompt formation of early stellar spheroids and quasars.

Robust penalty method for structural synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kamat, M. P.

1983-01-01

The Sequential Unconstrained Minimization Technique (SUMT) offers an easy way of solving nonlinearly constrained problems. However, this algorithm frequently suffers from the need to minimize an ill-conditioned penalty function. An ill-conditioned minimization problem can be solved very effectively by posing the problem as one of integrating a system of stiff differential equations utilizing concepts from singular perturbation theory. This paper evaluates the robustness and the reliability of such a singular perturbation based SUMT algorithm on two different problems of structural optimization of widely separated scales. The report concludes that whereas conventional SUMT can be bogged down by frequent ill-conditioning, especially in large scale problems, the singular perturbation SUMT has no such difficulty in converging to very accurate solutions.

Identification and evaluation of scientific uncertainties related to fish and aquatic resources in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon - summary and interpretation of an expert-elicitation questionnaire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Theodore A.

2013-01-01

Identifying areas of scientific uncertainty is a critical step in the adaptive management process (Walters, 1986; Runge, Converse, and Lyons, 2011). To identify key areas of scientific uncertainty regarding biologic resources of importance to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) convened Knowledge Assessment Workshops in May and July 2005. One of the products of these workshops was a set of strategic science questions that highlighted key areas of scientific uncertainty. These questions were intended to frame and guide the research and monitoring activities conducted by the GCMRC in subsequent years. Questions were developed collaboratively by scientists and managers. The questions were not all of equal importance or merit—some questions were large scale and others were small scale. Nevertheless, these questions were adopted and have guided the research and monitoring efforts conducted by the GCMRC since 2005. A new round of Knowledge Assessment Workshops was convened by the GCMRC in June and October 2011 and January 2012 to determine whether the research and monitoring activities conducted since 2005 had successfully answered some of the strategic science questions. Oral presentations by scientists highlighting research findings were a centerpiece of all three of the 2011–12 workshops. Each presenter was also asked to provide an answer to the strategic science questions that were specific to the presenter’s research area. One limitation of this approach is that these answers represented the views of the handful of scientists who developed the presentations, and, as such, they did not incorporate other perspectives. Thus, the answers provided by presenters at the Knowledge Assessment Workshops may not have accurately captured the sentiments of the broader group of scientists involved in research and monitoring of the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons. Yet a fundamental ingredient of resilient decisionmaking and problem-solving is incorporation of a wide range of perspectives (Carpenter and others, 2009). To ensure that a wide range of scientists had an opportunity to weigh in on the strategic science questions, the GCMRC elicited additional perspectives through written questionnaires. Independently soliciting responses from scientists through questionnaires had the added advantage of allowing all scientists to freely and openly share their views on complex and controversial topics—something which may not have occurred in the group setting of the June 2011 Knowledge Assessment Workshop because of dominance by one or more scientists. The purpose of this report is to document and interpret the questionnaire responses.

A parallel orbital-updating based plane-wave basis method for electronic structure calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Yan; Dai, Xiaoying; de Gironcoli, Stefano; Gong, Xin-Gao; Rignanese, Gian-Marco; Zhou, Aihui

2017-11-01

Motivated by the recently proposed parallel orbital-updating approach in real space method [1], we propose a parallel orbital-updating based plane-wave basis method for electronic structure calculations, for solving the corresponding eigenvalue problems. In addition, we propose two new modified parallel orbital-updating methods. Compared to the traditional plane-wave methods, our methods allow for two-level parallelization, which is particularly interesting for large scale parallelization. Numerical experiments show that these new methods are more reliable and efficient for large scale calculations on modern supercomputers.

Support Vector Machines Trained with Evolutionary Algorithms Employing Kernel Adatron for Large Scale Classification of Protein Structures.

PubMed

Arana-Daniel, Nancy; Gallegos, Alberto A; López-Franco, Carlos; Alanís, Alma Y; Morales, Jacob; López-Franco, Adriana

2016-01-01

With the increasing power of computers, the amount of data that can be processed in small periods of time has grown exponentially, as has the importance of classifying large-scale data efficiently. Support vector machines have shown good results classifying large amounts of high-dimensional data, such as data generated by protein structure prediction, spam recognition, medical diagnosis, optical character recognition and text classification, etc. Most state of the art approaches for large-scale learning use traditional optimization methods, such as quadratic programming or gradient descent, which makes the use of evolutionary algorithms for training support vector machines an area to be explored. The present paper proposes an approach that is simple to implement based on evolutionary algorithms and Kernel-Adatron for solving large-scale classification problems, focusing on protein structure prediction. The functional properties of proteins depend upon their three-dimensional structures. Knowing the structures of proteins is crucial for biology and can lead to improvements in areas such as medicine, agriculture and biofuels.

Streamflow hindcasting in European river basins via multi-parametric ensemble of the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

There have been tremendous improvements in distributed hydrologic modeling (DHM) which made a process-based simulation with a high spatiotemporal resolution applicable on a large spatial scale. Despite of increasing information on heterogeneous property of a catchment, DHM is still subject to uncertainties inherently coming from model structure, parameters and input forcing. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction via DHM using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is, however, often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. If parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by DHM may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we present a global multi-parametric ensemble approach to incorporate parametric uncertainty of DHM in DA to improve streamflow predictions. To effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters with limited number of ensemble, MPR method is incorporated with DA. Lagged particle filtering is utilized to consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes. The hindcasting experiments are implemented to evaluate impacts of the proposed DA method on streamflow predictions in multiple European river basins having different climate and catchment characteristics. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be stable with limited ensemble members and viable for practical uses.

Use of NARCCAP data to characterize regional climate uncertainty in the impact of global climate change on large river fish population: Missouri River sturgeon example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C. J.; Wildhaber, M. L.; Wikle, C. K.; Moran, E. H.; Franz, K. J.; Dey, R.

2012-12-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the effects of change on ecosystems requires accounting for the propagation of information and uncertainty across these scales. For example, to understand potential climate change effects on fish populations in riverine ecosystems, climate conditions predicted by course-resolution atmosphere-ocean global climate models must first be translated to the regional climate scale. In turn, this regional information is used to force watershed models, which are used to force river condition models, which impact the population response. A critical challenge in such a multiscale modeling environment is to quantify sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and the individual organism. We use a hierarchical modeling approach for accommodating uncertainty in multiscale ecological impact studies. This framework allows for uncertainty due to system models, model parameter settings, and stochastic parameterizations. This approach is a hybrid between physical (deterministic) downscaling and statistical downscaling, recognizing that there is uncertainty in both. We use NARCCAP data to determine confidence the capability of climate models to simulate relevant processes and to quantify regional climate variability within the context of the hierarchical model of uncertainty quantification. By confidence, we mean the ability of the regional climate model to replicate observed mechanisms. We use the NCEP-driven simulations for this analysis. This provides a base from which regional change can be categorized as either a modification of previously observed mechanisms or emergence of new processes. The management implications for these categories of change are significantly different in that procedures to address impacts from existing processes may already be known and need adjustment; whereas, an emergent processes may require new management strategies. The results from hierarchical analysis of uncertainty are used to study the relative change in weights of the endangered Missouri River pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) under a 21st century climate scenario.

Recovery Discontinuous Galerkin Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov Method for all-speed flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HyeongKae Park; Robert Nourgaliev; Vincent Mousseau

2008-07-01

There is an increasing interest to develop the next generation simulation tools for the advanced nuclear energy systems. These tools will utilize the state-of-art numerical algorithms and computer science technology in order to maximize the predictive capability, support advanced reactor designs, reduce uncertainty and increase safety margins. In analyzing nuclear energy systems, we are interested in compressible low-Mach number, high heat flux flows with a wide range of Re, Ra, and Pr numbers. Under these conditions, the focus is placed on turbulent heat transfer, in contrast to other industries whose main interest is in capturing turbulent mixing. Our objective ismore » to develop singlepoint turbulence closure models for large-scale engineering CFD code, using Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) or Large Eddy Simulation (LES) tools, requireing very accurate and efficient numerical algorithms. The focus of this work is placed on fully-implicit, high-order spatiotemporal discretization based on the discontinuous Galerkin method solving the conservative form of the compressible Navier-Stokes equations. The method utilizes a local reconstruction procedure derived from weak formulation of the problem, which is inspired by the recovery diffusion flux algorithm of van Leer and Nomura [?] and by the piecewise parabolic reconstruction [?] in the finite volume method. The developed methodology is integrated into the Jacobianfree Newton-Krylov framework [?] to allow a fully-implicit solution of the problem.« less

[The uncertainty evaluation of analytical results of 27 elements in geological samples by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry].

PubMed

Wang, Yi-Ya; Zhan, Xiu-Chun

2014-04-01

Evaluating uncertainty of analytical results with 165 geological samples by polarized dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (P-EDXRF) has been reported according to the internationally accepted guidelines. One hundred sixty five pressed pellets of similar matrix geological samples with reliable values were analyzed by P-EDXRF. These samples were divided into several different concentration sections in the concentration ranges of every component. The relative uncertainties caused by precision and accuracy of 27 components were evaluated respectively. For one element in one concentration, the relative uncertainty caused by precision can be calculated according to the average value of relative standard deviation with different concentration level in one concentration section, n = 6 stands for the 6 results of one concentration level. The relative uncertainty caused by accuracy in one concentration section can be evaluated by the relative standard deviation of relative deviation with different concentration level in one concentration section. According to the error propagation theory, combining the precision uncertainty and the accuracy uncertainty into a global uncertainty, this global uncertainty acted as method uncertainty. This model of evaluating uncertainty can solve a series of difficult questions in the process of evaluating uncertainty, such as uncertainties caused by complex matrix of geological samples, calibration procedure, standard samples, unknown samples, matrix correction, overlap correction, sample preparation, instrument condition and mathematics model. The uncertainty of analytical results in this method can act as the uncertainty of the results of the similar matrix unknown sample in one concentration section. This evaluation model is a basic statistical method owning the practical application value, which can provide a strong base for the building of model of the following uncertainty evaluation function. However, this model used a lot of samples which cannot simply be applied to other types of samples with different matrix samples. The number of samples is too large to adapt to other type's samples. We will strive for using this study as a basis to establish a reasonable basis of mathematical statistics function mode to be applied to different types of samples.

Parameter Uncertainty Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulations for a Regional-Scale Groundwater Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Pohlmann, K.

2016-12-01

Regional-scale grid-based groundwater models for flow and transport often contain multiple types of parameters that can intensify the challenge of parameter uncertainty analysis. We propose a Monte Carlo approach to systematically quantify the influence of various types of model parameters on groundwater flux and contaminant travel times. The Monte Carlo simulations were conducted based on the steady-state conversion of the original transient model, which was then combined with the PEST sensitivity analysis tool SENSAN and particle tracking software MODPATH. Results identified hydrogeologic units whose hydraulic conductivity can significantly affect groundwater flux, and thirteen out of 173 model parameters that can cause large variation in travel times for contaminant particles originating from given source zones.

Path changing methods applied to the 4-D guidance of STOL aircraft.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1971-11-01

Prior to the advent of large-scale commercial STOL service, some challenging navigation and guidance problems must be solved. Proposed terminal area operations may require that these aircraft be capable of accurately flying complex flight paths, and ...

Joint Model and Parameter Dimension Reduction for Bayesian Inversion Applied to an Ice Sheet Flow Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghattas, O.; Petra, N.; Cui, T.; Marzouk, Y.; Benjamin, P.; Willcox, K.

2016-12-01

Model-based projections of the dynamics of the polar ice sheets play a central role in anticipating future sea level rise. However, a number of mathematical and computational challenges place significant barriers on improving predictability of these models. One such challenge is caused by the unknown model parameters (e.g., in the basal boundary conditions) that must be inferred from heterogeneous observational data, leading to an ill-posed inverse problem and the need to quantify uncertainties in its solution. In this talk we discuss the problem of estimating the uncertainty in the solution of (large-scale) ice sheet inverse problems within the framework of Bayesian inference. Computing the general solution of the inverse problem--i.e., the posterior probability density--is intractable with current methods on today's computers, due to the expense of solving the forward model (3D full Stokes flow with nonlinear rheology) and the high dimensionality of the uncertain parameters (which are discretizations of the basal sliding coefficient field). To overcome these twin computational challenges, it is essential to exploit problem structure (e.g., sensitivity of the data to parameters, the smoothing property of the forward model, and correlations in the prior). To this end, we present a data-informed approach that identifies low-dimensional structure in both parameter space and the forward model state space. This approach exploits the fact that the observations inform only a low-dimensional parameter space and allows us to construct a parameter-reduced posterior. Sampling this parameter-reduced posterior still requires multiple evaluations of the forward problem, therefore we also aim to identify a low dimensional state space to reduce the computational cost. To this end, we apply a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach to approximate the state using a low-dimensional manifold constructed using ``snapshots'' from the parameter reduced posterior, and the discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) to approximate the nonlinearity in the forward problem. We show that using only a limited number of forward solves, the resulting subspaces lead to an efficient method to explore the high-dimensional posterior.

Non-Gaussianity and Excursion Set Theory: Halo Bias

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adshead, Peter; Baxter, Eric J.; Dodelson, Scott

2012-09-01

We study the impact of primordial non-Gaussianity generated during inflation on the bias of halos using excursion set theory. We recapture the familiar result that the bias scales asmore » $$k^{-2}$$ on large scales for local type non-Gaussianity but explicitly identify the approximations that go into this conclusion and the corrections to it. We solve the more complicated problem of non-spherical halos, for which the collapse threshold is scale dependent.« less

Uncertainty Analysis in Large Area Aboveground Biomass Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baccini, A.; Carvalho, L.; Dubayah, R.; Goetz, S. J.; Friedl, M. A.

2011-12-01

Satellite and aircraft-based remote sensing observations are being more frequently used to generate spatially explicit estimates of aboveground carbon stock of forest ecosystems. Because deforestation and forest degradation account for circa 10% of anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere, policy mechanisms are increasingly recognized as a low-cost mitigation option to reduce carbon emission. They are, however, contingent upon the capacity to accurately measures carbon stored in the forests. Here we examine the sources of uncertainty and error propagation in generating maps of aboveground biomass. We focus on characterizing uncertainties associated with maps at the pixel and spatially aggregated national scales. We pursue three strategies to describe the error and uncertainty properties of aboveground biomass maps, including: (1) model-based assessment using confidence intervals derived from linear regression methods; (2) data-mining algorithms such as regression trees and ensembles of these; (3) empirical assessments using independently collected data sets.. The latter effort explores error propagation using field data acquired within satellite-based lidar (GLAS) acquisitions versus alternative in situ methods that rely upon field measurements that have not been systematically collected for this purpose (e.g. from forest inventory data sets). A key goal of our effort is to provide multi-level characterizations that provide both pixel and biome-level estimates of uncertainties at different scales.

Parameter estimation in large-scale systems biology models: a parallel and self-adaptive cooperative strategy.

PubMed

Penas, David R; González, Patricia; Egea, Jose A; Doallo, Ramón; Banga, Julio R

2017-01-21

The development of large-scale kinetic models is one of the current key issues in computational systems biology and bioinformatics. Here we consider the problem of parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic models. Global optimization methods can be used to solve this type of problems but the associated computational cost is very large. Moreover, many of these methods need the tuning of a number of adjustable search parameters, requiring a number of initial exploratory runs and therefore further increasing the computation times. Here we present a novel parallel method, self-adaptive cooperative enhanced scatter search (saCeSS), to accelerate the solution of this class of problems. The method is based on the scatter search optimization metaheuristic and incorporates several key new mechanisms: (i) asynchronous cooperation between parallel processes, (ii) coarse and fine-grained parallelism, and (iii) self-tuning strategies. The performance and robustness of saCeSS is illustrated by solving a set of challenging parameter estimation problems, including medium and large-scale kinetic models of the bacterium E. coli, bakerés yeast S. cerevisiae, the vinegar fly D. melanogaster, Chinese Hamster Ovary cells, and a generic signal transduction network. The results consistently show that saCeSS is a robust and efficient method, allowing very significant reduction of computation times with respect to several previous state of the art methods (from days to minutes, in several cases) even when only a small number of processors is used. The new parallel cooperative method presented here allows the solution of medium and large scale parameter estimation problems in reasonable computation times and with small hardware requirements. Further, the method includes self-tuning mechanisms which facilitate its use by non-experts. We believe that this new method can play a key role in the development of large-scale and even whole-cell dynamic models.

Large-scale computation of incompressible viscous flow by least-squares finite element method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jiang, Bo-Nan; Lin, T. L.; Povinelli, Louis A.

1993-01-01

The least-squares finite element method (LSFEM) based on the velocity-pressure-vorticity formulation is applied to large-scale/three-dimensional steady incompressible Navier-Stokes problems. This method can accommodate equal-order interpolations and results in symmetric, positive definite algebraic system which can be solved effectively by simple iterative methods. The first-order velocity-Bernoulli function-vorticity formulation for incompressible viscous flows is also tested. For three-dimensional cases, an additional compatibility equation, i.e., the divergence of the vorticity vector should be zero, is included to make the first-order system elliptic. The simple substitution of the Newton's method is employed to linearize the partial differential equations, the LSFEM is used to obtain discretized equations, and the system of algebraic equations is solved using the Jacobi preconditioned conjugate gradient method which avoids formation of either element or global matrices (matrix-free) to achieve high efficiency. To show the validity of this scheme for large-scale computation, we give numerical results for 2D driven cavity problem at Re = 10000 with 408 x 400 bilinear elements. The flow in a 3D cavity is calculated at Re = 100, 400, and 1,000 with 50 x 50 x 50 trilinear elements. The Taylor-Goertler-like vortices are observed for Re = 1,000.

Partially acoustic dark matter, interacting dark radiation, and large scale structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacko, Zackaria; Cui, Yanou; Hong, Sungwoo; Okui, Takemichi; Tsai, Yuhsinz

2016-12-01

The standard paradigm of collisionless cold dark matter is in tension with measurements on large scales. In particular, the best fit values of the Hubble rate H 0 and the matter density perturbation σ 8 inferred from the cosmic microwave background seem inconsistent with the results from direct measurements. We show that both problems can be solved in a framework in which dark matter consists of two distinct components, a dominant component and a subdominant component. The primary component is cold and collisionless. The secondary component is also cold, but interacts strongly with dark radiation, which itself forms a tightly coupled fluid. The growth of density perturbations in the subdominant component is inhibited by dark acoustic oscillations due to its coupling to the dark radiation, solving the σ 8 problem, while the presence of tightly coupled dark radiation ameliorates the H 0 problem. The subdominant component of dark matter and dark radiation continue to remain in thermal equilibrium until late times, inhibiting the formation of a dark disk. We present an example of a simple model that naturally realizes this scenario in which both constituents of dark matter are thermal WIMPs. Our scenario can be tested by future stage-IV experiments designed to probe the CMB and large scale structure.

Partially acoustic dark matter, interacting dark radiation, and large scale structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chacko, Zackaria; Cui, Yanou; Hong, Sungwoo

The standard paradigm of collisionless cold dark matter is in tension with measurements on large scales. In particular, the best fit values of the Hubble rate H 0 and the matter density perturbation σ 8 inferred from the cosmic microwave background seem inconsistent with the results from direct measurements. We show that both problems can be solved in a framework in which dark matter consists of two distinct components, a dominant component and a subdominant component. The primary component is cold and collisionless. The secondary component is also cold, but interacts strongly with dark radiation, which itself forms a tightlymore » coupled fluid. The growth of density perturbations in the subdominant component is inhibited by dark acoustic oscillations due to its coupling to the dark radiation, solving the σ 8 problem, while the presence of tightly coupled dark radiation ameliorates the H 0 problem. The subdominant component of dark matter and dark radiation continue to remain in thermal equilibrium until late times, inhibiting the formation of a dark disk. We present an example of a simple model that naturally realizes this scenario in which both constituents of dark matter are thermal WIMPs. Our scenario can be tested by future stage-IV experiments designed to probe the CMB and large scale structure.« less

Partially acoustic dark matter, interacting dark radiation, and large scale structure

DOE PAGES

Chacko, Zackaria; Cui, Yanou; Hong, Sungwoo; ...

2016-12-21

The standard paradigm of collisionless cold dark matter is in tension with measurements on large scales. In particular, the best fit values of the Hubble rate H 0 and the matter density perturbation σ 8 inferred from the cosmic microwave background seem inconsistent with the results from direct measurements. We show that both problems can be solved in a framework in which dark matter consists of two distinct components, a dominant component and a subdominant component. The primary component is cold and collisionless. The secondary component is also cold, but interacts strongly with dark radiation, which itself forms a tightlymore » coupled fluid. The growth of density perturbations in the subdominant component is inhibited by dark acoustic oscillations due to its coupling to the dark radiation, solving the σ 8 problem, while the presence of tightly coupled dark radiation ameliorates the H 0 problem. The subdominant component of dark matter and dark radiation continue to remain in thermal equilibrium until late times, inhibiting the formation of a dark disk. We present an example of a simple model that naturally realizes this scenario in which both constituents of dark matter are thermal WIMPs. Our scenario can be tested by future stage-IV experiments designed to probe the CMB and large scale structure.« less

The effect of the geomagnetic field on cosmic ray energy estimates and large scale anisotropy searches on data from the Pierre Auger Observatory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abreu, P.; /Lisbon, IST; Aglietta, M.

2011-11-01

We present a comprehensive study of the influence of the geomagnetic field on the energy estimation of extensive air showers with a zenith angle smaller than 60{sup o}, detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory. The geomagnetic field induces an azimuthal modulation of the estimated energy of cosmic rays up to the {approx} 2% level at large zenith angles. We present a method to account for this modulation of the reconstructed energy. We analyse the effect of the modulation on large scale anisotropy searches in the arrival direction distributions of cosmic rays. At a given energy, the geomagnetic effect is shownmore » to induce a pseudo-dipolar pattern at the percent level in the declination distribution that needs to be accounted for. In this work, we have identified and quantified a systematic uncertainty affecting the energy determination of cosmic rays detected by the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory. This systematic uncertainty, induced by the influence of the geomagnetic field on the shower development, has a strength which depends on both the zenith and the azimuthal angles. Consequently, we have shown that it induces distortions of the estimated cosmic ray event rate at a given energy at the percent level in both the azimuthal and the declination distributions, the latter of which mimics an almost dipolar pattern. We have also shown that the induced distortions are already at the level of the statistical uncertainties for a number of events N {approx_equal} 32 000 (we note that the full Auger surface detector array collects about 6500 events per year with energies above 3 EeV). Accounting for these effects is thus essential with regard to the correct interpretation of large scale anisotropy measurements taking explicitly profit from the declination distribution.« less

Methods for High-Order Multi-Scale and Stochastic Problems Analysis, Algorithms, and Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-17

finite volume schemes, discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, and related methods, for solving computational fluid dynamics (CFD) problems and...approximation for finite element methods. (3) The development of methods of simulation and analysis for the study of large scale stochastic systems of...laws, finite element method, Bernstein-Bezier finite elements , weakly interacting particle systems, accelerated Monte Carlo, stochastic networks 16

Cognitive Model Exploration and Optimization: A New Challenge for Computational Science

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

the generation and analysis of computational cognitive models to explain various aspects of cognition. Typically the behavior of these models...computational scale of a workstation, so we have turned to high performance computing (HPC) clusters and volunteer computing for large-scale...computational resources. The majority of applications on the Department of Defense HPC clusters focus on solving partial differential equations (Post

Forecasting the Cumulative Impacts of Dams on the Mekong Delta: Certainties and Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondolf, G. M.; Rubin, Z.; Schmitt, R. J. P.

2016-12-01

The Mekong River basin is undergoing rapid hydroelectric development, with 7 large mainstem dams on the upper Mekong (Lancang) River in China and 133 dams planned for the Lower Mekong River basin (Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam), 11 of which are on the mainstem. Prior analyses have shown that all these dams built as initially proposed would trap 96% of the natural sediment load to the Mekong Delta. Such a reduction in sediment supply would compromise the sustainability of the delta itself, but there are many uncertainties in the timing and pattern of land loss. The river will first erode in-channel sediment deposits, partly compensating for upstream sediment trapping until these deposits are exhausted. Other complicating factors include basin-wide accelerated land-use change, road construction, instream sand mining, dyking-off floodplains, and changing climate, accelerated subsidence from groundwater extraction, and sea level rise. It is certain that the Mekong Delta will undergo large changes in the coming decades, changes that will threaten its very existence. However, the multiplicity of compounding drivers and lack of good data lead to large uncertainties in forecasting changes in the sediment balance on the scale of a very large network. We quantify uncertainties in available data and consider changes due to additional, poorly quantified drivers (e.g., road construction), putting these drivers in perspective with the overall sediment budget. We developed a set of most-likely scenarios and their implications for the delta's future. Uncertainties are large, but there are certainties about the delta's future. If its sediment supply is nearly completely cut off (as would be the case with `business-as-usual' ongoing dam construction and sediment extraction), the Delta is certainly doomed to disappear in the face of rising seas, subsidence, and coastal erosion. The uncertainty is only when and how precisely the loss will progress.

Environmental aspects of large-scale wind-power systems in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robson, A.

1984-11-01

Environmental issues relating to the introduction of large, MW-scale wind turbines at land-based sites in the UK are discussed. Noise, television interference, hazards to bird life, and visual effects are considered. Areas of uncertainty are identified, but enough is known from experience elsewhere in the world to enable the first UK machines to be introduced in a safe and environementally acceptable manner. Research to establish siting criteria more clearly, and significantly increase the potential wind-energy resource is mentioned. Studies of the comparative risk of energy systems are shown to be overpessimistic for UK wind turbines.

Inverse problems in the design, modeling and testing of engineering systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alifanov, Oleg M.

1991-01-01

Formulations, classification, areas of application, and approaches to solving different inverse problems are considered for the design of structures, modeling, and experimental data processing. Problems in the practical implementation of theoretical-experimental methods based on solving inverse problems are analyzed in order to identify mathematical models of physical processes, aid in input data preparation for design parameter optimization, help in design parameter optimization itself, and to model experiments, large-scale tests, and real tests of engineering systems.

CHURCHILL COUNTY, NEVADA ARSENIC STUDY: WATER CONSUMPTION AND EXPOSURE BIOMARKERS

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency is required to reevaluate the Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for arsenic in 2006. To provide data for reducing uncertainties in assessing health risks associated with exposure to low levels (<200 g/l) of arsenic, a large scale biomarker st...

New Directions: Understanding Interactions of Air Quality and Climate Change at Regional Scales

EPA Science Inventory

The estimates of the short-lived climate forcers’ (SLCFs) impacts and mitigation effects on the radiation balance have large uncertainty because the current global model set-ups and simulations contain simplified parameterizations and do not completely cover the full range of air...

Energy levels of one-dimensional systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernardo, Reginald Christian S., E-mail: rcbernardo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Esguerra, Jose Perico H., E-mail: jesguerra@nip.upd.edu.ph

2016-10-15

The standard approach to calculating the energy levels for quantum systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is to solve an eigenvalue problem involving a fourth- or higher-order differential equation in quasiposition space. It is shown that the problem can be reformulated so that the energy levels of these systems can be obtained by solving only a second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. Through this formulation the energy levels are calculated for the following potentials: particle in a box, harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well. For the particle in a box, the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation is a second-ordermore » differential equation with constant coefficients. For the harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well, a method that involves using Wronskians has been used to solve the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. It is observed for all of these quantum systems that the introduction of a nonzero minimal length uncertainty induces a positive shift in the energy levels. It is shown that the calculation of energy levels in systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is not limited to a small number of problems like particle in a box and the harmonic oscillator but can be extended to a wider class of problems involving potentials such as the Pöschl–Teller and Gaussian wells.« less

High-resolution mapping of forest carbon stocks in the Colombian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asner, G. P.; Clark, J. K.; Mascaro, J.; Galindo García, G. A.; Chadwick, K. D.; Navarrete Encinales, D. A.; Paez-Acosta, G.; Cabrera Montenegro, E.; Kennedy-Bowdoin, T.; Duque, Á.; Balaji, A.; von Hildebrand, P.; Maatoug, L.; Bernal, J. F. Phillips; Yepes Quintero, A. P.; Knapp, D. E.; García Dávila, M. C.; Jacobson, J.; Ordóñez, M. F.

2012-07-01

High-resolution mapping of tropical forest carbon stocks can assist forest management and improve implementation of large-scale carbon retention and enhancement programs. Previous high-resolution approaches have relied on field plot and/or light detection and ranging (LiDAR) samples of aboveground carbon density, which are typically upscaled to larger geographic areas using stratification maps. Such efforts often rely on detailed vegetation maps to stratify the region for sampling, but existing tropical forest maps are often too coarse and field plots too sparse for high-resolution carbon assessments. We developed a top-down approach for high-resolution carbon mapping in a 16.5 million ha region (> 40%) of the Colombian Amazon - a remote landscape seldom documented. We report on three advances for large-scale carbon mapping: (i) employing a universal approach to airborne LiDAR-calibration with limited field data; (ii) quantifying environmental controls over carbon densities; and (iii) developing stratification- and regression-based approaches for scaling up to regions outside of LiDAR coverage. We found that carbon stocks are predicted by a combination of satellite-derived elevation, fractional canopy cover and terrain ruggedness, allowing upscaling of the LiDAR samples to the full 16.5 million ha region. LiDAR-derived carbon maps have 14% uncertainty at 1 ha resolution, and the regional map based on stratification has 28% uncertainty in any given hectare. High-resolution approaches with quantifiable pixel-scale uncertainties will provide the most confidence for monitoring changes in tropical forest carbon stocks. Improved confidence will allow resource managers and decision makers to more rapidly and effectively implement actions that better conserve and utilize forests in tropical regions.

High-resolution Mapping of Forest Carbon Stocks in the Colombian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asner, G. P.; Clark, J. K.; Mascaro, J.; Galindo García, G. A.; Chadwick, K. D.; Navarrete Encinales, D. A.; Paez-Acosta, G.; Cabrera Montenegro, E.; Kennedy-Bowdoin, T.; Duque, Á.; Balaji, A.; von Hildebrand, P.; Maatoug, L.; Bernal, J. F. Phillips; Knapp, D. E.; García Dávila, M. C.; Jacobson, J.; Ordóñez, M. F.

2012-03-01

High-resolution mapping of tropical forest carbon stocks can assist forest management and improve implementation of large-scale carbon retention and enhancement programs. Previous high-resolution approaches have relied on field plot and/or Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) samples of aboveground carbon density, which are typically upscaled to larger geographic areas using stratification maps. Such efforts often rely on detailed vegetation maps to stratify the region for sampling, but existing tropical forest maps are often too coarse and field plots too sparse for high resolution carbon assessments. We developed a top-down approach for high-resolution carbon mapping in a 16.5 million ha region (>40 %) of the Colombian Amazon - a remote landscape seldom documented. We report on three advances for large-scale carbon mapping: (i) employing a universal approach to airborne LiDAR-calibration with limited field data; (ii) quantifying environmental controls over carbon densities; and (iii) developing stratification- and regression-based approaches for scaling up to regions outside of LiDAR coverage. We found that carbon stocks are predicted by a combination of satellite-derived elevation, fractional canopy cover and terrain ruggedness, allowing upscaling of the LiDAR samples to the full 16.5 million ha region. LiDAR-derived carbon mapping samples had 14.6 % uncertainty at 1 ha resolution, and regional maps based on stratification and regression approaches had 25.6 % and 29.6 % uncertainty, respectively, in any given hectare. High-resolution approaches with reported local-scale uncertainties will provide the most confidence for monitoring changes in tropical forest carbon stocks. Improved confidence will allow resource managers and decision-makers to more rapidly and effectively implement actions that better conserve and utilize forests in tropical regions.

An empirical, integrated forest biomass monitoring system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Robert E.; Ohmann, Janet; Gregory, Matt; Roberts, Heather; Yang, Zhiqiang; Bell, David M.; Kane, Van; Hughes, M. Joseph; Cohen, Warren B.; Powell, Scott; Neeti, Neeti; Larrue, Tara; Hooper, Sam; Kane, Jonathan; Miller, David L.; Perkins, James; Braaten, Justin; Seidl, Rupert

2018-02-01

The fate of live forest biomass is largely controlled by growth and disturbance processes, both natural and anthropogenic. Thus, biomass monitoring strategies must characterize both the biomass of the forests at a given point in time and the dynamic processes that change it. Here, we describe and test an empirical monitoring system designed to meet those needs. Our system uses a mix of field data, statistical modeling, remotely-sensed time-series imagery, and small-footprint lidar data to build and evaluate maps of forest biomass. It ascribes biomass change to specific change agents, and attempts to capture the impact of uncertainty in methodology. We find that: • A common image framework for biomass estimation and for change detection allows for consistent comparison of both state and change processes controlling biomass dynamics. • Regional estimates of total biomass agree well with those from plot data alone. • The system tracks biomass densities up to 450-500 Mg ha-1 with little bias, but begins underestimating true biomass as densities increase further. • Scale considerations are important. Estimates at the 30 m grain size are noisy, but agreement at broad scales is good. Further investigation to determine the appropriate scales is underway. • Uncertainty from methodological choices is evident, but much smaller than uncertainty based on choice of allometric equation used to estimate biomass from tree data. • In this forest-dominated study area, growth and loss processes largely balance in most years, with loss processes dominated by human removal through harvest. In years with substantial fire activity, however, overall biomass loss greatly outpaces growth. Taken together, our methods represent a unique combination of elements foundational to an operational landscape-scale forest biomass monitoring program.

Motion estimation under location uncertainty for turbulent fluid flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Shengze; Mémin, Etienne; Dérian, Pierre; Xu, Chao

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel optical flow formulation for estimating two-dimensional velocity fields from an image sequence depicting the evolution of a passive scalar transported by a fluid flow. This motion estimator relies on a stochastic representation of the flow allowing to incorporate naturally a notion of uncertainty in the flow measurement. In this context, the Eulerian fluid flow velocity field is decomposed into two components: a large-scale motion field and a small-scale uncertainty component. We define the small-scale component as a random field. Subsequently, the data term of the optical flow formulation is based on a stochastic transport equation, derived from the formalism under location uncertainty proposed in Mémin (Geophys Astrophys Fluid Dyn 108(2):119-146, 2014) and Resseguier et al. (Geophys Astrophys Fluid Dyn 111(3):149-176, 2017a). In addition, a specific regularization term built from the assumption of constant kinetic energy involves the very same diffusion tensor as the one appearing in the data transport term. Opposite to the classical motion estimators, this enables us to devise an optical flow method dedicated to fluid flows in which the regularization parameter has now a clear physical interpretation and can be easily estimated. Experimental evaluations are presented on both synthetic and real world image sequences. Results and comparisons indicate very good performance of the proposed formulation for turbulent flow motion estimation.

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porwollik, Vera; Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Iizumi, Toshichika; Ray, Deepak K.; Ruane, Alex C.; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe;

Cloud fraction at the ARM SGP site: Reducing uncertainty with self-organizing maps

DOE PAGES

Kennedy, Aaron D.; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike

2015-02-15

Instrument downtime leads to uncertainty in the monthly and annual record of cloud fraction (CF), making it difficult to perform time series analyses of cloud properties and perform detailed evaluations of model simulations. As cloud occurrence is partially controlled by the large-scale atmospheric environment, this knowledge is used to reduce uncertainties in the instrument record. Synoptic patterns diagnosed from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) during the period 1997–2010 are classified using a competitive neural network known as the self-organizing map (SOM). The classified synoptic states are then compared to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) instrumentmore » record to determine the expected CF. A number of SOMs are tested to understand how the number of classes and the period of classifications impact the relationship between classified states and CFs. Bootstrapping is utilized to quantify the uncertainty of the instrument record when statistical information from the SOM is included. Although all SOMs significantly reduce the uncertainty of the CF record calculated in Kennedy et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 115:91–105, 2014), SOMs with a large number of classes and separated by month are required to produce the lowest uncertainty and best agreement with the annual cycle of CF. Lastly, this result may be due to a manifestation of seasonally dependent biases in NARR.« less

Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Gill M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Moise, Aurel F.

2017-01-01

This study analyses tropical rainfall variability (on a range of temporal and spatial scales) in a set of parallel Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations at a range of horizontal resolutions, which are compared with two satellite-derived rainfall datasets. We focus on the shorter scales, i.e. from the native grid and time step of the model through sub-daily to seasonal, since previous studies have paid relatively little attention to sub-daily rainfall variability and how this feeds through to longer scales. We find that the behaviour of the deep convection parametrization in this model on the native grid and time step is largely independent of the grid-box size and time step length over which it operates. There is also little difference in the rainfall variability on larger/longer spatial/temporal scales. Tropical convection in the model on the native grid/time step is spatially and temporally intermittent, producing very large rainfall amounts interspersed with grid boxes/time steps of little or no rain. In contrast, switching off the deep convection parametrization, albeit at an unrealistic resolution for resolving tropical convection, results in very persistent (for limited periods), but very sporadic, rainfall. In both cases, spatial and temporal averaging smoothes out this intermittency. On the ˜ 100 km scale, for oceanic regions, the spectra of 3-hourly and daily mean rainfall in the configurations with parametrized convection agree fairly well with those from satellite-derived rainfall estimates, while at ˜ 10-day timescales the averages are overestimated, indicating a lack of intra-seasonal variability. Over tropical land the results are more varied, but the model often underestimates the daily mean rainfall (partly as a result of a poor diurnal cycle) but still lacks variability on intra-seasonal timescales. Ultimately, such work will shed light on how uncertainties in modelling small-/short-scale processes relate to uncertainty in climate change projections of rainfall distribution and variability, with a view to reducing such uncertainty through improved modelling of small-/short-scale processes.

Cloud fraction at the ARM SGP site: reducing uncertainty with self-organizing maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Aaron D.; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike

2016-04-01

Instrument downtime leads to uncertainty in the monthly and annual record of cloud fraction (CF), making it difficult to perform time series analyses of cloud properties and perform detailed evaluations of model simulations. As cloud occurrence is partially controlled by the large-scale atmospheric environment, this knowledge is used to reduce uncertainties in the instrument record. Synoptic patterns diagnosed from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) during the period 1997-2010 are classified using a competitive neural network known as the self-organizing map (SOM). The classified synoptic states are then compared to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) instrument record to determine the expected CF. A number of SOMs are tested to understand how the number of classes and the period of classifications impact the relationship between classified states and CFs. Bootstrapping is utilized to quantify the uncertainty of the instrument record when statistical information from the SOM is included. Although all SOMs significantly reduce the uncertainty of the CF record calculated in Kennedy et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 115:91-105, 2014), SOMs with a large number of classes and separated by month are required to produce the lowest uncertainty and best agreement with the annual cycle of CF. This result may be due to a manifestation of seasonally dependent biases in NARR. With use of the SOMs, the average uncertainty in monthly CF is reduced in half from the values calculated in Kennedy et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 115:91-105, 2014).

Three essays on multi-level optimization models and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahdar, Mohammad

The general form of a multi-level mathematical programming problem is a set of nested optimization problems, in which each level controls a series of decision variables independently. However, the value of decision variables may also impact the objective function of other levels. A two-level model is called a bilevel model and can be considered as a Stackelberg game with a leader and a follower. The leader anticipates the response of the follower and optimizes its objective function, and then the follower reacts to the leader's action. The multi-level decision-making model has many real-world applications such as government decisions, energy policies, market economy, network design, etc. However, there is a lack of capable algorithms to solve medium and large scale these types of problems. The dissertation is devoted to both theoretical research and applications of multi-level mathematical programming models, which consists of three parts, each in a paper format. The first part studies the renewable energy portfolio under two major renewable energy policies. The potential competition for biomass for the growth of the renewable energy portfolio in the United States and other interactions between two policies over the next twenty years are investigated. This problem mainly has two levels of decision makers: the government/policy makers and biofuel producers/electricity generators/farmers. We focus on the lower-level problem to predict the amount of capacity expansions, fuel production, and power generation. In the second part, we address uncertainty over demand and lead time in a multi-stage mathematical programming problem. We propose a two-stage tri-level optimization model in the concept of rolling horizon approach to reducing the dimensionality of the multi-stage problem. In the third part of the dissertation, we introduce a new branch and bound algorithm to solve bilevel linear programming problems. The total time is reduced by solving a smaller relaxation problem in each node and decreasing the number of iterations. Computational experiments show that the proposed algorithm is faster than the existing ones.

Why do large and small scales couple in a turbulent boundary layer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Promode R.

2011-11-01

Correlation measurement, which is not definitive, suggests that large and small scales in a turbulent boundary layer (TBL) couple. A TBL is modeled as a jungle of interacting nonlinear oscillators to explore the origin of the coupling. These oscillators have the inherent property of self-sustainability, disturbance rejection, and of self-referential phase reset whereby several oscillators can phase align (or have constant phase difference between them) when an ``external'' impulse is applied. Consequently, these properties of a TBL are accounted for: self-sustainability, return of the wake component after a disturbance is removed, and the formation of the 18o large structures, which are composed of a sequential train of hairpin vortices. The nonlinear ordinary differential equations of the oscillators are solved using an analog circuit for rapid solution. The post-bifurcation limit cycles are determined. A small scale and a large scale are akin to two different oscillators. The state variables from the two disparate interacting oscillators are shown to couple and the small scales appear at certain regions of the phase of the large scale. The coupling is a consequence of the nonlinear oscillatory behavior. Although state planes exist where the disparate scales appear de-superposed, all scales in a TBL are in fact coupled and they cannot be monochromatically isolated.

Efficient Characterization of Parametric Uncertainty of Complex (Bio)chemical Networks.

PubMed

Schillings, Claudia; Sunnåker, Mikael; Stelling, Jörg; Schwab, Christoph

2015-08-01

Parametric uncertainty is a particularly challenging and relevant aspect of systems analysis in domains such as systems biology where, both for inference and for assessing prediction uncertainties, it is essential to characterize the system behavior globally in the parameter space. However, current methods based on local approximations or on Monte-Carlo sampling cope only insufficiently with high-dimensional parameter spaces associated with complex network models. Here, we propose an alternative deterministic methodology that relies on sparse polynomial approximations. We propose a deterministic computational interpolation scheme which identifies most significant expansion coefficients adaptively. We present its performance in kinetic model equations from computational systems biology with several hundred parameters and state variables, leading to numerical approximations of the parametric solution on the entire parameter space. The scheme is based on adaptive Smolyak interpolation of the parametric solution at judiciously and adaptively chosen points in parameter space. As Monte-Carlo sampling, it is "non-intrusive" and well-suited for massively parallel implementation, but affords higher convergence rates. This opens up new avenues for large-scale dynamic network analysis by enabling scaling for many applications, including parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and systems design.

Efficient Characterization of Parametric Uncertainty of Complex (Bio)chemical Networks

PubMed Central

Schillings, Claudia; Sunnåker, Mikael; Stelling, Jörg; Schwab, Christoph

2015-01-01

Parametric uncertainty is a particularly challenging and relevant aspect of systems analysis in domains such as systems biology where, both for inference and for assessing prediction uncertainties, it is essential to characterize the system behavior globally in the parameter space. However, current methods based on local approximations or on Monte-Carlo sampling cope only insufficiently with high-dimensional parameter spaces associated with complex network models. Here, we propose an alternative deterministic methodology that relies on sparse polynomial approximations. We propose a deterministic computational interpolation scheme which identifies most significant expansion coefficients adaptively. We present its performance in kinetic model equations from computational systems biology with several hundred parameters and state variables, leading to numerical approximations of the parametric solution on the entire parameter space. The scheme is based on adaptive Smolyak interpolation of the parametric solution at judiciously and adaptively chosen points in parameter space. As Monte-Carlo sampling, it is “non-intrusive” and well-suited for massively parallel implementation, but affords higher convergence rates. This opens up new avenues for large-scale dynamic network analysis by enabling scaling for many applications, including parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and systems design. PMID:26317784

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Horton, Radley M.; E Smerdon, Jason; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-04-01

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Characterizing sources of uncertainty from global climate models and downscaling techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wootten, Adrienne; Terando, Adam; Reich, Brian J.; Boyles, Ryan; Semazzi, Fred

2017-01-01

In recent years climate model experiments have been increasingly oriented towards providing information that can support local and regional adaptation to the expected impacts of anthropogenic climate change. This shift has magnified the importance of downscaling as a means to translate coarse-scale global climate model (GCM) output to a finer scale that more closely matches the scale of interest. Applying this technique, however, introduces a new source of uncertainty into any resulting climate model ensemble. Here we present a method, based on a previously established variance decomposition method, to partition and quantify the uncertainty in climate model ensembles that is attributable to downscaling. We apply the method to the Southeast U.S. using five downscaled datasets that represent both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques. The combined ensemble is highly fragmented, in that only a small portion of the complete set of downscaled GCMs and emission scenarios are typically available. The results indicate that the uncertainty attributable to downscaling approaches ~20% for large areas of the Southeast U.S. for precipitation and ~30% for extreme heat days (> 35°C) in the Appalachian Mountains. However, attributable quantities are significantly lower for time periods when the full ensemble is considered but only a sub-sample of all models are available, suggesting that overconfidence could be a serious problem in studies that employ a single set of downscaled GCMs. We conclude with recommendations to advance the design of climate model experiments so that the uncertainty that accrues when downscaling is employed is more fully and systematically considered.

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-10-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

Multi-Scale Fusion of Information for Uncertainty Quantification and Management in Large-Scale Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-02

simplification of the equations but at the expense of introducing modeling errors. We have shown that the Wick solutions have accuracy comparable to...the system of equations for the coefficients of formal power series solutions . Moreover, the structure of this propagator is seemingly universal, i.e...the problem of computing the numerical solution to kinetic partial differential equa- tions involving many phase variables. These types of equations

Selecting the best rayon in customer’s perspective using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonjaya, E. G.; Paulus, E.; Hidayat, A.

2018-03-01

Annually, the best Rayon selection is conducted by the assessment team of PT.PLN (Persero) Cirebon with the goal to increase the spirit of company members in providing an improved service for customers. However, there is a problem in multiple criteria decision making in this case, which is the importance intensity of each criterion in the selection are often assessed subjectively. To solve this problem, Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process are used to cover AHP scale deficiency in the form of ‘crisp’ numbers. So, it should be considered to use Fuzzy logic approach to handle uncertainty. Fuzzy approach, especially triangular fuzzy number towards AHP scale, are expected to minimize the handling of subjective input, which then will make a more objective result. Thus, this research was conducted to help the management or assessment team in the selection of the best Rayon with a more objective selection in according to the company criteria.

RACORO Extended-Term Aircraft Observations of Boundary-Layer Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vogelmann, Andrew M.; McFarquhar, Greg M.; Ogren, John A.; Turner, David D.; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Feingold, Graham; Long, Charles N.; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Bucholtz, Anthony; Collins, Don R.;

Controlling Uncertainty: A Review of Human Behavior in Complex Dynamic Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osman, Magda

2010-01-01

Complex dynamic control (CDC) tasks are a type of problem-solving environment used for examining many cognitive activities (e.g., attention, control, decision making, hypothesis testing, implicit learning, memory, monitoring, planning, and problem solving). Because of their popularity, there have been many findings from diverse domains of research…

Creative Problem-Solving Exercises and Training in FCS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcketti, Sara B.; Karpova, Elena; Barker, Jessica

2009-01-01

Creative problem-solving has been linked to successful adjustment to the demands of daily life. The ability to recognize problems as opportunities can be an essential skill when dealing with uncertainty and adapting to continuous changes, both in personal and professional lives. Family and consumer sciences (FCS) professionals should strive to…

Logo's Problem-Solving Potential.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dale, Evelyn J.

Given the uncertainty of the future and the rapidity with which computer technology is changing, a generalist position on the objectives of educational computing is desirable. This position insists that learning how to think and solve problems is the foundation of education and suggests that basic learning needs to be an integral part of the…

Robust Detection of Examinees with Aberrant Answer Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belov, Dmitry I.

2015-01-01

The statistical analysis of answer changes (ACs) has uncovered multiple testing irregularities on large-scale assessments and is now routinely performed at testing organizations. However, AC data has an uncertainty caused by technological or human factors. Therefore, existing statistics (e.g., number of wrong-to-right ACs) used to detect examinees…

Data related uncertainty in near-surface vulnerability assessments for agrochemicals in the San Joaquin Valley

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precious groundwater resources across the USA have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management prac...

Bayesian analysis of the dynamic cosmic web in the SDSS galaxy survey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leclercq, Florent; Wandelt, Benjamin; Jasche, Jens, E-mail: florent.leclercq@polytechnique.org, E-mail: jasche@iap.fr, E-mail: wandelt@iap.fr

Recent application of the Bayesian algorithm \\textsc(borg) to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) main sample galaxies resulted in the physical inference of the formation history of the observed large-scale structure from its origin to the present epoch. In this work, we use these inferences as inputs for a detailed probabilistic cosmic web-type analysis. To do so, we generate a large set of data-constrained realizations of the large-scale structure using a fast, fully non-linear gravitational model. We then perform a dynamic classification of the cosmic web into four distinct components (voids, sheets, filaments, and clusters) on the basis of themore » tidal field. Our inference framework automatically and self-consistently propagates typical observational uncertainties to web-type classification. As a result, this study produces accurate cosmographic classification of large-scale structure elements in the SDSS volume. By also providing the history of these structure maps, the approach allows an analysis of the origin and growth of the early traces of the cosmic web present in the initial density field and of the evolution of global quantities such as the volume and mass filling fractions of different structures. For the problem of web-type classification, the results described in this work constitute the first connection between theory and observations at non-linear scales including a physical model of structure formation and the demonstrated capability of uncertainty quantification. A connection between cosmology and information theory using real data also naturally emerges from our probabilistic approach. Our results constitute quantitative chrono-cosmography of the complex web-like patterns underlying the observed galaxy distribution.« less

Automatic Selection of Order Parameters in the Analysis of Large Scale Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Sultan, Mohammad M; Kiss, Gert; Shukla, Diwakar; Pande, Vijay S

2014-12-09

Given the large number of crystal structures and NMR ensembles that have been solved to date, classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have become powerful tools in the atomistic study of the kinetics and thermodynamics of biomolecular systems on ever increasing time scales. By virtue of the high-dimensional conformational state space that is explored, the interpretation of large-scale simulations faces difficulties not unlike those in the big data community. We address this challenge by introducing a method called clustering based feature selection (CB-FS) that employs a posterior analysis approach. It combines supervised machine learning (SML) and feature selection with Markov state models to automatically identify the relevant degrees of freedom that separate conformational states. We highlight the utility of the method in the evaluation of large-scale simulations and show that it can be used for the rapid and automated identification of relevant order parameters involved in the functional transitions of two exemplary cell-signaling proteins central to human disease states.

Large scale analysis of signal reachability.

PubMed

Todor, Andrei; Gabr, Haitham; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer

2014-06-15

Major disorders, such as leukemia, have been shown to alter the transcription of genes. Understanding how gene regulation is affected by such aberrations is of utmost importance. One promising strategy toward this objective is to compute whether signals can reach to the transcription factors through the transcription regulatory network (TRN). Due to the uncertainty of the regulatory interactions, this is a #P-complete problem and thus solving it for very large TRNs remains to be a challenge. We develop a novel and scalable method to compute the probability that a signal originating at any given set of source genes can arrive at any given set of target genes (i.e., transcription factors) when the topology of the underlying signaling network is uncertain. Our method tackles this problem for large networks while providing a provably accurate result. Our method follows a divide-and-conquer strategy. We break down the given network into a sequence of non-overlapping subnetworks such that reachability can be computed autonomously and sequentially on each subnetwork. We represent each interaction using a small polynomial. The product of these polynomials express different scenarios when a signal can or cannot reach to target genes from the source genes. We introduce polynomial collapsing operators for each subnetwork. These operators reduce the size of the resulting polynomial and thus the computational complexity dramatically. We show that our method scales to entire human regulatory networks in only seconds, while the existing methods fail beyond a few tens of genes and interactions. We demonstrate that our method can successfully characterize key reachability characteristics of the entire transcriptions regulatory networks of patients affected by eight different subtypes of leukemia, as well as those from healthy control samples. All the datasets and code used in this article are available at bioinformatics.cise.ufl.edu/PReach/scalable.htm. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

An iterative bidirectional heuristic placement algorithm for solving the two-dimensional knapsack packing problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiangjen, Kanokwatt; Chaijaruwanich, Jeerayut; Srisujjalertwaja, Wijak; Unachak, Prakarn; Somhom, Samerkae

2018-02-01

This article presents an efficient heuristic placement algorithm, namely, a bidirectional heuristic placement, for solving the two-dimensional rectangular knapsack packing problem. The heuristic demonstrates ways to maximize space utilization by fitting the appropriate rectangle from both sides of the wall of the current residual space layer by layer. The iterative local search along with a shift strategy is developed and applied to the heuristic to balance the exploitation and exploration tasks in the solution space without the tuning of any parameters. The experimental results on many scales of packing problems show that this approach can produce high-quality solutions for most of the benchmark datasets, especially for large-scale problems, within a reasonable duration of computational time.

Turbulence Modeling Verification and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rumsey, Christopher L.

2014-01-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations has been in routine use for more than a quarter of a century. It is currently employed not only for basic research in fluid dynamics, but also for the analysis and design processes in many industries worldwide, including aerospace, automotive, power generation, chemical manufacturing, polymer processing, and petroleum exploration. A key feature of RANS CFD is the turbulence model. Because the RANS equations are unclosed, a model is necessary to describe the effects of the turbulence on the mean flow, through the Reynolds stress terms. The turbulence model is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in RANS CFD, and most models are known to be flawed in one way or another. Alternative methods such as direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES) rely less on modeling and hence include more physics than RANS. In DNS all turbulent scales are resolved, and in LES the large scales are resolved and the effects of the smallest turbulence scales are modeled. However, both DNS and LES are too expensive for most routine industrial usage on today's computers. Hybrid RANS-LES, which blends RANS near walls with LES away from walls, helps to moderate the cost while still retaining some of the scale-resolving capability of LES, but for some applications it can still be too expensive. Even considering its associated uncertainties, RANS turbulence modeling has proved to be very useful for a wide variety of applications. For example, in the aerospace field, many RANS models are considered to be reliable for computing attached flows. However, existing turbulence models are known to be inaccurate for many flows involving separation. Research has been ongoing for decades in an attempt to improve turbulence models for separated and other nonequilibrium flows. When developing or improving turbulence models, both verification and validation are important steps in the process. Verification insures that the CFD code is solving the equations as intended (no errors in the implementation). This is typically done either through the method of manufactured solutions (MMS) or through careful step-by-step comparisons with other verified codes. After the verification step is concluded, validation is performed to document the ability of the turbulence model to represent different types of flow physics. Validation can involve a large number of test case comparisons with experiments, theory, or DNS. Organized workshops have proved to be valuable resources for the turbulence modeling community in its pursuit of turbulence modeling verification and validation. Workshop contributors using different CFD codes run the same cases, often according to strict guidelines, and compare results. Through these comparisons, it is often possible to (1) identify codes that have likely implementation errors, and (2) gain insight into the capabilities and shortcomings of different turbulence models to predict the flow physics associated with particular types of flows. These are valuable lessons because they help bring consistency to CFD codes by encouraging the correction of faulty programming and facilitating the adoption of better models. They also sometimes point to specific areas needed for improvement in the models. In this paper, several recent workshops are summarized primarily from the point of view of turbulence modeling verification and validation. Furthermore, the NASA Langley Turbulence Modeling Resource website is described. The purpose of this site is to provide a central location where RANS turbulence models are documented, and test cases, grids, and data are provided. The goal of this paper is to provide an abbreviated survey of turbulence modeling verification and validation efforts, summarize some of the outcomes, and give some ideas for future endeavors in this area.

Accelerating large scale Kohn-Sham density functional theory calculations with semi-local functionals and hybrid functionals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Lin

The computational cost of standard Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KSDFT) calculations scale cubically with respect to the system size, which limits its use in large scale applications. In recent years, we have developed an alternative procedure called the pole expansion and selected inversion (PEXSI) method. The PEXSI method solves KSDFT without solving any eigenvalue and eigenvector, and directly evaluates physical quantities including electron density, energy, atomic force, density of states, and local density of states. The overall algorithm scales as at most quadratically for all materials including insulators, semiconductors and the difficult metallic systems. The PEXSI method can be efficiently parallelized over 10,000 - 100,000 processors on high performance machines. The PEXSI method has been integrated into a number of community electronic structure software packages such as ATK, BigDFT, CP2K, DGDFT, FHI-aims and SIESTA, and has been used in a number of applications with 2D materials beyond 10,000 atoms. The PEXSI method works for LDA, GGA and meta-GGA functionals. The mathematical structure for hybrid functional KSDFT calculations is significantly different. I will also discuss recent progress on using adaptive compressed exchange method for accelerating hybrid functional calculations. DOE SciDAC Program, DOE CAMERA Program, LBNL LDRD, Sloan Fellowship.

Implement Method for Automated Testing of Markov Chain Convergence into INVERSE for ORNL12-RS-108J: Advanced Multi-Dimensional Forward and Inverse Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bledsoe, Keith C.

2015-04-01

The DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) method is a powerful optimization/uncertainty quantification tool used to solve inverse transport problems in Los Alamos National Laboratory’s INVERSE code system. The DREAM method has been shown to be adept at accurate uncertainty quantification, but it can be very computationally demanding. Previously, the DREAM method in INVERSE performed a user-defined number of particle transport calculations. This placed a burden on the user to guess the number of calculations that would be required to accurately solve any given problem. This report discusses a new approach that has been implemented into INVERSE, the Gelman-Rubin convergence metric.more » This metric automatically detects when an appropriate number of transport calculations have been completed and the uncertainty in the inverse problem has been accurately calculated. In a test problem with a spherical geometry, this method was found to decrease the number of transport calculations (and thus time required) to solve a problem by an average of over 90%. In a cylindrical test geometry, a 75% decrease was obtained.« less

Very Large Scale Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanderplaats, Garrett; Townsend, James C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The purpose of this research under the NASA Small Business Innovative Research program was to develop algorithms and associated software to solve very large nonlinear, constrained optimization tasks. Key issues included efficiency, reliability, memory, and gradient calculation requirements. This report describes the general optimization problem, ten candidate methods, and detailed evaluations of four candidates. The algorithm chosen for final development is a modern recreation of a 1960s external penalty function method that uses very limited computer memory and computational time. Although of lower efficiency, the new method can solve problems orders of magnitude larger than current methods. The resulting BIGDOT software has been demonstrated on problems with 50,000 variables and about 50,000 active constraints. For unconstrained optimization, it has solved a problem in excess of 135,000 variables. The method includes a technique for solving discrete variable problems that finds a "good" design, although a theoretical optimum cannot be guaranteed. It is very scalable in that the number of function and gradient evaluations does not change significantly with increased problem size. Test cases are provided to demonstrate the efficiency and reliability of the methods and software.

Summer Proceedings 2016: The Center for Computing Research at Sandia National Laboratories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carleton, James Brian; Parks, Michael L.

Solving sparse linear systems from the discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs) is an important building block in many engineering applications. Sparse direct solvers can solve general linear systems, but are usually slower and use much more memory than effective iterative solvers. To overcome these two disadvantages, a hierarchical solver (LoRaSp) based on H2-matrices was introduced in [22]. Here, we have developed a parallel version of the algorithm in LoRaSp to solve large sparse matrices on distributed memory machines. On a single processor, the factorization time of our parallel solver scales almost linearly with the problem size for three-dimensionalmore » problems, as opposed to the quadratic scalability of many existing sparse direct solvers. Moreover, our solver leads to almost constant numbers of iterations, when used as a preconditioner for Poisson problems. On more than one processor, our algorithm has significant speedups compared to sequential runs. With this parallel algorithm, we are able to solve large problems much faster than many existing packages as demonstrated by the numerical experiments.« less

Rodent phylogeny revised: analysis of six nuclear genes from all major rodent clades

PubMed Central

Blanga-Kanfi, Shani; Miranda, Hector; Penn, Osnat; Pupko, Tal; DeBry, Ronald W; Huchon, Dorothée

2009-01-01

Background Rodentia is the most diverse order of placental mammals, with extant rodent species representing about half of all placental diversity. In spite of many morphological and molecular studies, the family-level relationships among rodents and the location of the rodent root are still debated. Although various datasets have already been analyzed to solve rodent phylogeny at the family level, these are difficult to combine because they involve different taxa and genes. Results We present here the largest protein-coding dataset used to study rodent relationships. It comprises six nuclear genes, 41 rodent species, and eight outgroups. Our phylogenetic reconstructions strongly support the division of Rodentia into three clades: (1) a "squirrel-related clade", (2) a "mouse-related clade", and (3) Ctenohystrica. Almost all evolutionary relationships within these clades are also highly supported. The primary remaining uncertainty is the position of the root. The application of various models and techniques aimed to remove non-phylogenetic signal was unable to solve the basal rodent trifurcation. Conclusion Sequencing and analyzing a large sequence dataset enabled us to resolve most of the evolutionary relationships among Rodentia. Our findings suggest that the uncertainty regarding the position of the rodent root reflects the rapid rodent radiation that occurred in the Paleocene rather than the presence of conflicting phylogenetic and non-phylogenetic signals in the dataset. PMID:19341461

Estimating parameters and uncertainty for three-dimensional flow and transport in a highly heterogeneous sand box experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, H.; McKenna, S. A.; Hart, D. B.

2010-12-01

Heterogeneity plays an important role in groundwater flow and contaminant transport in natural systems. Since it is impossible to directly measure spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, predictions of solute transport based on mathematical models are always uncertain. While in most cases groundwater flow and tracer transport problems are investigated in two-dimensional (2D) systems, it is important to study more realistic and well-controlled 3D systems to fully evaluate inverse parameter estimation techniques and evaluate uncertainty in the resulting estimates. We used tracer concentration breakthrough curves (BTCs) obtained from a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique in a small flow cell (14 x 8 x 8 cm) that was packed with a known pattern of five different sands (i.e., zones) having cm-scale variability. In contrast to typical inversion systems with head, conductivity and concentration measurements at limited points, the MRI data included BTCs measured at a voxel scale (~0.2 cm in each dimension) over 13 x 8 x 8 cm with a well controlled boundary condition, but did not have direct measurements of head and conductivity. Hydraulic conductivity and porosity were conceptualized as spatial random fields and estimated using pilot points along layers of the 3D medium. The steady state water flow and solute transport were solved using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The inversion problem was solved with a nonlinear parameter estimation package - PEST. Two approaches to parameterization of the spatial fields are evaluated: 1) The detailed zone information was used as prior information to constrain the spatial impact of the pilot points and reduce the number of parameters; and 2) highly parameterized inversion at cm scale (e.g., 1664 parameters) using singular value decomposition (SVD) methodology to significantly reduce the run-time demands. Both results will be compared to measured BTCs. With MRI, it is easy to change the averaging scale of the observed concentration from point to cross-section. This comparison allows us to evaluate which method best matches experimental results at different scales. To evaluate the uncertainty in parameter estimation, the null space Monte Carlo method will be used to reduce computational burden of the development of calibration-constrained Monte Carlo based parameter fields. This study will illustrate how accurately a well-calibrated model can predict contaminant transport. This material is based upon work supported as part of the Center for Frontiers of Subsurface Energy Security (CFSES), an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences under Award Number DE-SC0001114. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Deterministic physical systems under uncertain initial conditions: the case of maximum entropy applied to projectile motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montecinos, Alejandra; Davis, Sergio; Peralta, Joaquín

2018-07-01

The kinematics and dynamics of deterministic physical systems have been a foundation of our understanding of the world since Galileo and Newton. For real systems, however, uncertainty is largely present via external forces such as friction or lack of precise knowledge about the initial conditions of the system. In this work we focus on the latter case and describe the use of inference methodologies in solving the statistical properties of classical systems subject to uncertain initial conditions. In particular we describe the application of the formalism of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) inference to the problem of projectile motion, given information about the average horizontal range over many realizations. By using MaxEnt we can invert the problem and use the provided information on the average range to reduce the original uncertainty in the initial conditions. Also, additional insight into the initial condition's probabilities, and the projectile path distribution itself, can be achieved based on the value of the average horizontal range. The wide applicability of this procedure, as well as its ease of use, reveals a useful tool with which to revisit a large number of physics problems, from classrooms to frontier research.

Performance Analysis of the Ironless Inductive Position Sensor in the Large Hadron Collider Collimators Environment

PubMed Central

Danisi, Alessandro; Masi, Alessandro; Losito, Roberto

2015-01-01

The Ironless Inductive Position Sensor (I2PS) has been introduced as a valid alternative to Linear Variable Differential Transformers (LVDTs) when external magnetic fields are present. Potential applications of this linear position sensor can be found in critical systems such as nuclear plants, tokamaks, satellites and particle accelerators. This paper analyzes the performance of the I2PS in the harsh environment of the collimators of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), where position uncertainties of less than 20 µm are demanded in the presence of nuclear radiation and external magnetic fields. The I2PS has been targeted for installation for LHC Run 2, in order to solve the magnetic interference problem which standard LVDTs are experiencing. The paper describes in detail the chain of systems which belong to the new I2PS measurement task, their impact on the sensor performance and their possible further optimization. The I2PS performance is analyzed evaluating the position uncertainty (on 30 s), the magnetic immunity and the long-term stability (on 7 days). These three indicators are assessed from data acquired during the LHC operation in 2015 and compared with those of LVDTs. PMID:26569259

Information Power Grid Posters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaziri, Arsi

2003-01-01

This document is a summary of the accomplishments of the Information Power Grid (IPG). Grids are an emerging technology that provide seamless and uniform access to the geographically dispersed, computational, data storage, networking, instruments, and software resources needed for solving large-scale scientific and engineering problems. The goal of the NASA IPG is to use NASA's remotely located computing and data system resources to build distributed systems that can address problems that are too large or complex for a single site. The accomplishments outlined in this poster presentation are: access to distributed data, IPG heterogeneous computing, integration of large-scale computing node into distributed environment, remote access to high data rate instruments,and exploratory grid environment.

Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties

PubMed Central

Wiens, John A.; Stralberg, Diana; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Howell, Christine A.; Snyder, Mark A.

2009-01-01

As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some “hotspots” of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option. PMID:19822750

Large-scale dynamos in rapidly rotating plane layer convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bushby, P. J.; Käpylä, P. J.; Masada, Y.; Brandenburg, A.; Favier, B.; Guervilly, C.; Käpylä, M. J.

2018-05-01

Context. Convectively driven flows play a crucial role in the dynamo processes that are responsible for producing magnetic activity in stars and planets. It is still not fully understood why many astrophysical magnetic fields have a significant large-scale component. Aims: Our aim is to investigate the dynamo properties of compressible convection in a rapidly rotating Cartesian domain, focusing upon a parameter regime in which the underlying hydrodynamic flow is known to be unstable to a large-scale vortex instability. Methods: The governing equations of three-dimensional non-linear magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) are solved numerically. Different numerical schemes are compared and we propose a possible benchmark case for other similar codes. Results: In keeping with previous related studies, we find that convection in this parameter regime can drive a large-scale dynamo. The components of the mean horizontal magnetic field oscillate, leading to a continuous overall rotation of the mean field. Whilst the large-scale vortex instability dominates the early evolution of the system, the large-scale vortex is suppressed by the magnetic field and makes a negligible contribution to the mean electromotive force that is responsible for driving the large-scale dynamo. The cycle period of the dynamo is comparable to the ohmic decay time, with longer cycles for dynamos in convective systems that are closer to onset. In these particular simulations, large-scale dynamo action is found only when vertical magnetic field boundary conditions are adopted at the upper and lower boundaries. Strongly modulated large-scale dynamos are found at higher Rayleigh numbers, with periods of reduced activity (grand minima-like events) occurring during transient phases in which the large-scale vortex temporarily re-establishes itself, before being suppressed again by the magnetic field.

Advanced computational simulations of water waves interacting with wave energy converters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, Ashish; Freniere, Cole; Raessi, Mehdi

2017-03-01

Wave energy converter (WEC) devices harness the renewable ocean wave energy and convert it into useful forms of energy, e.g. mechanical or electrical. This paper presents an advanced 3D computational framework to study the interaction between water waves and WEC devices. The computational tool solves the full Navier-Stokes equations and considers all important effects impacting the device performance. To enable large-scale simulations in fast turnaround times, the computational solver was developed in an MPI parallel framework. A fast multigrid preconditioned solver is introduced to solve the computationally expensive pressure Poisson equation. The computational solver was applied to two surface-piercing WEC geometries: bottom-hinged cylinder and flap. Their numerically simulated response was validated against experimental data. Additional simulations were conducted to investigate the applicability of Froude scaling in predicting full-scale WEC response from the model experiments.

Thermodynamic properties and static structure factor for a Yukawa fluid in the mean spherical approximation.

PubMed

Montes-Perez, J; Cruz-Vera, A; Herrera, J N

2011-12-01

This work presents the full analytic expressions for the thermodynamic properties and the static structure factor for a hard sphere plus 1-Yukawa fluid within the mean spherical approximation. To obtain these properties of the fluid type Yukawa analytically it was necessary to solve an equation of fourth order for the scaling parameter on a large scale. The physical root of this equation was determined by imposing physical conditions. The results of this work are obtained from seminal papers of Blum and Høye. We show that is not necessary the use the series expansion to solve the equation for the scaling parameter. We applied our theoretical result to find the thermodynamic and the static structure factor for krypton. Our results are in good agreement with those obtained in an experimental form or by simulation using the Monte Carlo method.

How to help intelligent systems with different uncertainty representations cooperate with each other

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreinovich, Vladik YA.; Kumar, Sundeep

1991-01-01

In order to solve a complicated problem one must use the knowledge from different domains. Therefore, if one wants to automatize the solution of these problems, one has to help the knowledge-based systems that correspond to these domains cooperate, that is, communicate facts and conclusions to each other in the process of decision making. One of the main obstacles to such cooperation is the fact that different intelligent systems use different methods of knowledge acquisition and different methods and formalisms for uncertainty representation. So an interface f is needed, 'translating' the values x, y, which represent uncertainty of the experts' knowledge in one system, into the values f(x), f(y) appropriate for another one. The problem of designing such an interface as a mathematical problem is formulated and solved. It is shown that the interface must be fractionally linear: f(x) = (ax + b)/(cx + d).

Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

2015-10-01

In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Logic Models for Multicriteria Decision Making Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jana, Biswajit; Mohanty, Sachi Nandan

2017-04-01

The purpose of this paper is to enhance the applicability of the fuzzy sets for developing mathematical models for decision making under uncertainty, In general a decision making process consist of four stages, namely collection of information from various sources, compile the information, execute the information and finally take the decision/action. Only fuzzy sets theory is capable to quantifying the linguistic expression to mathematical form in complex situation. Intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFSs) which reflects the fact that the degree of non membership is not always equal to one minus degree of membership. There may be some degree of hesitation. Thus, there are some situations where IFS theory provides a more meaningful and applicable to cope with imprecise information present for solving multiple criteria decision making problem. This paper emphasis on IFSs, which is help for solving real world problem in uncertainty situation.

Space Shuttle Orbiter flight heating rate measurement sensitivity to thermal protection system uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradley, P. F.; Throckmorton, D. A.

1981-01-01

A study was completed to determine the sensitivity of computed convective heating rates to uncertainties in the thermal protection system thermal model. Those parameters considered were: density, thermal conductivity, and specific heat of both the reusable surface insulation and its coating; coating thickness and emittance; and temperature measurement uncertainty. The assessment used a modified version of the computer program to calculate heating rates from temperature time histories. The original version of the program solves the direct one dimensional heating problem and this modified version of The program is set up to solve the inverse problem. The modified program was used in thermocouple data reduction for shuttle flight data. Both nominal thermal models and altered thermal models were used to determine the necessity for accurate knowledge of thermal protection system's material thermal properties. For many thermal properties, the sensitivity (inaccuracies created in the calculation of convective heating rate by an altered property) was very low.

How accurate are lexile text measures?

PubMed

Stenner, A Jackson; Burdick, Hal; Sanford, Eleanor E; Burdick, Donald S

2006-01-01

The Lexile Framework for Reading models comprehension as the difference between a reader measure and a text measure. Uncertainty in comprehension rates results from unreliability in reader measures and inaccuracy in text readability measures. Whole-text processing eliminates sampling error in text measures. However, Lexile text measures are imperfect due to misspecification of the Lexile theory. The standard deviation component associated with theory misspecification is estimated at 64L for a standard-length passage (approximately 125 words). A consequence is that standard errors for longer texts (2,500 to 150,000 words) are measured on the Lexile scale with uncertainties in the single digits. Uncertainties in expected comprehension rates are largely due to imprecision in reader ability and not inaccuracies in text readabilities.

A two steps solution approach to solving large nonlinear models: application to a problem of conjunctive use.

PubMed

Vieira, J; Cunha, M C

2011-01-01

This article describes a solution method of solving large nonlinear problems in two steps. The two steps solution approach takes advantage of handling smaller and simpler models and having better starting points to improve solution efficiency. The set of nonlinear constraints (named as complicating constraints) which makes the solution of the model rather complex and time consuming is eliminated from step one. The complicating constraints are added only in the second step so that a solution of the complete model is then found. The solution method is applied to a large-scale problem of conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater resources. The results obtained are compared with solutions determined with the direct solve of the complete model in one single step. In all examples the two steps solution approach allowed a significant reduction of the computation time. This potential gain of efficiency of the two steps solution approach can be extremely important for work in progress and it can be particularly useful for cases where the computation time would be a critical factor for having an optimized solution in due time.

Velocity-depth ambiguity and the seismic structure of large igneous provinces: a case study from the Ontong Java Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korenaga, Jun

2011-05-01

The seismic structure of large igneous provinces provides unique constraints on the nature of their parental mantle, allowing us to investigate past mantle dynamics from present crustal structure. To exploit this crust-mantle connection, however, it is prerequisite to quantify the uncertainty of a crustal velocity model, as it could suffer from considerable velocity-depth ambiguity. In this contribution, a practical strategy is suggested to estimate the model uncertainty by explicitly exploring the degree of velocity-depth ambiguity in the model space. In addition, wide-angle seismic data collected over the Ontong Java Plateau are revisited to provide a worked example of the new approach. My analysis indicates that the crustal structure of this gigantic plateau is difficult to reconcile with the melting of a pyrolitic mantle, pointing to the possibility of large-scale compositional heterogeneity in the convecting mantle.

Analysis of the Efficacy of an Intervention to Improve Parent-Adolescent Problem Solving.

PubMed

Semeniuk, Yulia Yuriyivna; Brown, Roger L; Riesch, Susan K

2016-07-01

We conducted a two-group longitudinal partially nested randomized controlled trial to examine whether young adolescent youth-parent dyads participating in Mission Possible: Parents and Kids Who Listen, in contrast to a comparison group, would demonstrate improved problem-solving skill. The intervention is based on the Circumplex Model and Social Problem-Solving Theory. The Circumplex Model posits that families who are balanced, that is characterized by high cohesion and flexibility and open communication, function best. Social Problem-Solving Theory informs the process and skills of problem solving. The Conditional Latent Growth Modeling analysis revealed no statistically significant differences in problem solving among the final sample of 127 dyads in the intervention and comparison groups. Analyses of effect sizes indicated large magnitude group effects for selected scales for youth and dyads portraying a potential for efficacy and identifying for whom the intervention may be efficacious if study limitations and lessons learned were addressed. © The Author(s) 2016.

Large scale structure formation of the normal branch in the DGP brane world model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Yong-Seon

2008-06-15

In this paper, we study the large scale structure formation of the normal branch in the DGP model (Dvail, Gabadadze, and Porrati brane world model) by applying the scaling method developed by Sawicki, Song, and Hu for solving the coupled perturbed equations of motion of on-brane and off-brane. There is a detectable departure of perturbed gravitational potential from the cold dark matter model with vacuum energy even at the minimal deviation of the effective equation of state w{sub eff} below -1. The modified perturbed gravitational potential weakens the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect which is strengthened in the self-accelerating branch DGP model.more » Additionally, we discuss the validity of the scaling solution in the de Sitter limit at late times.« less

Classical boson sampling algorithms with superior performance to near-term experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neville, Alex; Sparrow, Chris; Clifford, Raphaël; Johnston, Eric; Birchall, Patrick M.; Montanaro, Ashley; Laing, Anthony

2017-12-01

It is predicted that quantum computers will dramatically outperform their conventional counterparts. However, large-scale universal quantum computers are yet to be built. Boson sampling is a rudimentary quantum algorithm tailored to the platform of linear optics, which has sparked interest as a rapid way to demonstrate such quantum supremacy. Photon statistics are governed by intractable matrix functions, which suggests that sampling from the distribution obtained by injecting photons into a linear optical network could be solved more quickly by a photonic experiment than by a classical computer. The apparently low resource requirements for large boson sampling experiments have raised expectations of a near-term demonstration of quantum supremacy by boson sampling. Here we present classical boson sampling algorithms and theoretical analyses of prospects for scaling boson sampling experiments, showing that near-term quantum supremacy via boson sampling is unlikely. Our classical algorithm, based on Metropolised independence sampling, allowed the boson sampling problem to be solved for 30 photons with standard computing hardware. Compared to current experiments, a demonstration of quantum supremacy over a successful implementation of these classical methods on a supercomputer would require the number of photons and experimental components to increase by orders of magnitude, while tackling exponentially scaling photon loss.

The Years of Uncertainty: Eighth Grade Family Life Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carson, Mary, Ed.; And Others

The family life sex education unit for eighth graders, "The Years of Uncertainty," consists of a series of daily lesson plans that span a 29-day period of one-hour class sessions. Topics covered are: problem solving, knowledge and attitudes, male and female reproductive systems, conception, pregnancy, birth, birth defects, venereal…

Intellectual Skills and Competitive Strength: Is a Radical Change Necessary?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koike, Kazuo

2002-01-01

Data from a study of Toyota production workshops show the most important worker intellectual skills are problem-solving know-how and ability to handle change. Introduction of information technology elevates the need for intellectual skills because of uncertainty. Development of skills for dealing with uncertainty and change in both blue- and…

Uncertainty based pressure reconstruction from velocity measurement with generalized least squares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiacheng; Scalo, Carlo; Vlachos, Pavlos

2017-11-01

A method using generalized least squares reconstruction of instantaneous pressure field from velocity measurement and velocity uncertainty is introduced and applied to both planar and volumetric flow data. Pressure gradients are computed on a staggered grid from flow acceleration. The variance-covariance matrix of the pressure gradients is evaluated from the velocity uncertainty by approximating the pressure gradient error to a linear combination of velocity errors. An overdetermined system of linear equations which relates the pressure and the computed pressure gradients is formulated and then solved using generalized least squares with the variance-covariance matrix of the pressure gradients. By comparing the reconstructed pressure field against other methods such as solving the pressure Poisson equation, the omni-directional integration, and the ordinary least squares reconstruction, generalized least squares method is found to be more robust to the noise in velocity measurement. The improvement on pressure result becomes more remarkable when the velocity measurement becomes less accurate and more heteroscedastic. The uncertainty of the reconstructed pressure field is also quantified and compared across the different methods.

A novel anisotropic fast marching method and its application to blood flow computation in phase-contrast MRI.

PubMed

Schwenke, M; Hennemuth, A; Fischer, B; Friman, O

2012-01-01

Phase-contrast MRI (PC MRI) can be used to assess blood flow dynamics noninvasively inside the human body. The acquired images can be reconstructed into flow vector fields. Traditionally, streamlines can be computed based on the vector fields to visualize flow patterns and particle trajectories. The traditional methods may give a false impression of precision, as they do not consider the measurement uncertainty in the PC MRI images. In our prior work, we incorporated the uncertainty of the measurement into the computation of particle trajectories. As a major part of the contribution, a novel numerical scheme for solving the anisotropic Fast Marching problem is presented. A computing time comparison to state-of-the-art methods is conducted on artificial tensor fields. A visual comparison of healthy to pathological blood flow patterns is given. The comparison shows that the novel anisotropic Fast Marching solver outperforms previous schemes in terms of computing time. The visual comparison of flow patterns directly visualizes large deviations of pathological flow from healthy flow. The novel anisotropic Fast Marching solver efficiently resolves even strongly anisotropic path costs. The visualization method enables the user to assess the uncertainty of particle trajectories derived from PC MRI images.

The uncertainty processing theory of motivation.

PubMed

Anselme, Patrick

2010-04-02

Most theories describe motivation using basic terminology (drive, 'wanting', goal, pleasure, etc.) that fails to inform well about the psychological mechanisms controlling its expression. This leads to a conception of motivation as a mere psychological state 'emerging' from neurophysiological substrates. However, the involvement of motivation in a large number of behavioural parameters (triggering, intensity, duration, and directedness) and cognitive abilities (learning, memory, decision, etc.) suggest that it should be viewed as an information processing system. The uncertainty processing theory (UPT) presented here suggests that motivation is the set of cognitive processes allowing organisms to extract information from the environment by reducing uncertainty about the occurrence of psychologically significant events. This processing of information is shown to naturally result in the highlighting of specific stimuli. The UPT attempts to solve three major problems: (i) how motivations can affect behaviour and cognition so widely, (ii) how motivational specificity for objects and events can result from nonspecific neuropharmacological causal factors (such as mesolimbic dopamine), and (iii) how motivational interactions can be conceived in psychological terms, irrespective of their biological correlates. The UPT is in keeping with the conceptual tradition of the incentive salience hypothesis while trying to overcome the shortcomings inherent to this view. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In situ determination of Earth matter density in a neutrino factory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minakata, Hisakazu; Uchinami, Shoichi

2007-04-01

We point out that an accurate in situ determination of the earth matter density ρ is possible in neutrino factory by placing a detector at the magic baseline, L=2π/GFNe where Ne denotes electron number density. The accuracy of matter density determination is excellent in a region of relatively large θ13 with fractional uncertainty δρ/ρ of about 0.43%, 1.3%, and ≲3% at 1σ CL at sin⁡22θ13=0.1, 10-2, and 3×10-3, respectively. At smaller θ13 the uncertainty depends upon the CP phase δ, but it remains small, 3% 7% in more than 3/4 of the entire region of δ at sin⁡22θ13=10-4. The results would allow us to solve the problem of obscured CP violation due to the uncertainty of earth matter density in a wide range of θ13 and δ. It may provide a test for the geophysical model of the earth, or it may serve as a method for a stringent test of the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein theory of neutrino propagation in matter once an accurate geophysical estimation of the matter density is available.

Optimism in the face of uncertainty supported by a statistically-designed multi-armed bandit algorithm.

PubMed

Kamiura, Moto; Sano, Kohei

2017-10-01

The principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty is known as a heuristic in sequential decision-making problems. Overtaking method based on this principle is an effective algorithm to solve multi-armed bandit problems. It was defined by a set of some heuristic patterns of the formulation in the previous study. The objective of the present paper is to redefine the value functions of Overtaking method and to unify the formulation of them. The unified Overtaking method is associated with upper bounds of confidence intervals of expected rewards on statistics. The unification of the formulation enhances the universality of Overtaking method. Consequently we newly obtain Overtaking method for the exponentially distributed rewards, numerically analyze it, and show that it outperforms UCB algorithm on average. The present study suggests that the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty should be regarded as the statistics-based consequence of the law of large numbers for the sample mean of rewards and estimation of upper bounds of expected rewards, rather than as a heuristic, in the context of multi-armed bandit problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DL_MG: A Parallel Multigrid Poisson and Poisson-Boltzmann Solver for Electronic Structure Calculations in Vacuum and Solution.

PubMed

Womack, James C; Anton, Lucian; Dziedzic, Jacek; Hasnip, Phil J; Probert, Matt I J; Skylaris, Chris-Kriton

2018-03-13

The solution of the Poisson equation is a crucial step in electronic structure calculations, yielding the electrostatic potential-a key component of the quantum mechanical Hamiltonian. In recent decades, theoretical advances and increases in computer performance have made it possible to simulate the electronic structure of extended systems in complex environments. This requires the solution of more complicated variants of the Poisson equation, featuring nonhomogeneous dielectric permittivities, ionic concentrations with nonlinear dependencies, and diverse boundary conditions. The analytic solutions generally used to solve the Poisson equation in vacuum (or with homogeneous permittivity) are not applicable in these circumstances, and numerical methods must be used. In this work, we present DL_MG, a flexible, scalable, and accurate solver library, developed specifically to tackle the challenges of solving the Poisson equation in modern large-scale electronic structure calculations on parallel computers. Our solver is based on the multigrid approach and uses an iterative high-order defect correction method to improve the accuracy of solutions. Using two chemically relevant model systems, we tested the accuracy and computational performance of DL_MG when solving the generalized Poisson and Poisson-Boltzmann equations, demonstrating excellent agreement with analytic solutions and efficient scaling to ∼10 9 unknowns and 100s of CPU cores. We also applied DL_MG in actual large-scale electronic structure calculations, using the ONETEP linear-scaling electronic structure package to study a 2615 atom protein-ligand complex with routinely available computational resources. In these calculations, the overall execution time with DL_MG was not significantly greater than the time required for calculations using a conventional FFT-based solver.

Ensemble modeling of stochastic unsteady open-channel flow in terms of its time-space evolutionary probability distribution - Part 1: theoretical development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dib, Alain; Kavvas, M. Levent

2018-03-01

The Saint-Venant equations are commonly used as the governing equations to solve for modeling the spatially varied unsteady flow in open channels. The presence of uncertainties in the channel or flow parameters renders these equations stochastic, thus requiring their solution in a stochastic framework in order to quantify the ensemble behavior and the variability of the process. While the Monte Carlo approach can be used for such a solution, its computational expense and its large number of simulations act to its disadvantage. This study proposes, explains, and derives a new methodology for solving the stochastic Saint-Venant equations in only one shot, without the need for a large number of simulations. The proposed methodology is derived by developing the nonlocal Lagrangian-Eulerian Fokker-Planck equation of the characteristic form of the stochastic Saint-Venant equations for an open-channel flow process, with an uncertain roughness coefficient. A numerical method for its solution is subsequently devised. The application and validation of this methodology are provided in a companion paper, in which the statistical results computed by the proposed methodology are compared against the results obtained by the Monte Carlo approach.

A Monte-Carlo Bayesian framework for urban rainfall error modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa Rodriguez, Susana; Wang, Li-Pen; Willems, Patrick; Onof, Christian

2016-04-01

Rainfall estimates of the highest possible accuracy and resolution are required for urban hydrological applications, given the small size and fast response which characterise urban catchments. While significant progress has been made in recent years towards meeting rainfall input requirements for urban hydrology -including increasing use of high spatial resolution radar rainfall estimates in combination with point rain gauge records- rainfall estimates will never be perfect and the true rainfall field is, by definition, unknown [1]. Quantifying the residual errors in rainfall estimates is crucial in order to understand their reliability, as well as the impact that their uncertainty may have in subsequent runoff estimates. The quantification of errors in rainfall estimates has been an active topic of research for decades. However, existing rainfall error models have several shortcomings, including the fact that they are limited to describing errors associated to a single data source (i.e. errors associated to rain gauge measurements or radar QPEs alone) and to a single representative error source (e.g. radar-rain gauge differences, spatial temporal resolution). Moreover, rainfall error models have been mostly developed for and tested at large scales. Studies at urban scales are mostly limited to analyses of propagation of errors in rain gauge records-only through urban drainage models and to tests of model sensitivity to uncertainty arising from unmeasured rainfall variability. Only few radar rainfall error models -originally developed for large scales- have been tested at urban scales [2] and have been shown to fail to well capture small-scale storm dynamics, including storm peaks, which are of utmost important for urban runoff simulations. In this work a Monte-Carlo Bayesian framework for rainfall error modelling at urban scales is introduced, which explicitly accounts for relevant errors (arising from insufficient accuracy and/or resolution) in multiple data sources (in this case radar and rain gauge estimates typically available at present), while at the same time enabling dynamic combination of these data sources (thus not only quantifying uncertainty, but also reducing it). This model generates an ensemble of merged rainfall estimates, which can then be used as input to urban drainage models in order to examine how uncertainties in rainfall estimates propagate to urban runoff estimates. The proposed model is tested using as case study a detailed rainfall and flow dataset, and a carefully verified urban drainage model of a small (~9 km2) pilot catchment in North-East London. The model has shown to well characterise residual errors in rainfall data at urban scales (which remain after the merging), leading to improved runoff estimates. In fact, the majority of measured flow peaks are bounded within the uncertainty area produced by the runoff ensembles generated with the ensemble rainfall inputs. REFERENCES: [1] Ciach, G. J. & Krajewski, W. F. (1999). On the estimation of radar rainfall error variance. Advances in Water Resources, 22 (6), 585-595. [2] Rico-Ramirez, M. A., Liguori, S. & Schellart, A. N. A. (2015). Quantifying radar-rainfall uncertainties in urban drainage flow modelling. Journal of Hydrology, 528, 17-28.

A low-order model for long-range infrasound propagation in random atmospheric waveguides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millet, C.; Lott, F.

2014-12-01

In numerical modeling of long-range infrasound propagation in the atmosphere, the wind and temperature profiles are usually obtained as a result of matching atmospheric models to empirical data. The atmospheric models are classically obtained from operational numerical weather prediction centers (NOAA Global Forecast System or ECMWF Integrated Forecast system) as well as atmospheric climate reanalysis activities and thus, do not explicitly resolve atmospheric gravity waves (GWs). The GWs are generally too small to be represented in Global Circulation Models, and their effects on the resolved scales need to be parameterized in order to account for fine-scale atmospheric inhomogeneities (for length scales less than 100 km). In the present approach, the sound speed profiles are considered as random functions, obtained by superimposing a stochastic GW field on the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim. The spectral domain is binned by a large number of monochromatic GWs, and the breaking of each GW is treated independently from the others. The wave equation is solved using a reduced-order model, starting from the classical normal mode technique. We focus on the asymptotic behavior of the transmitted waves in the weakly heterogeneous regime (for which the coupling between the wave and the medium is weak), with a fixed number of propagating modes that can be obtained by rearranging the eigenvalues by decreasing Sobol indices. The most important feature of the stochastic approach lies in the fact that the model order (i.e. the number of relevant eigenvalues) can be computed to satisfy a given statistical accuracy whatever the frequency. As the low-order model preserves the overall structure of waveforms under sufficiently small perturbations of the profile, it can be applied to sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. The gain in CPU cost provided by the low-order model is essential for extracting statistical information from simulations. The statistics of a transmitted broadband pulse are computed by decomposing the original pulse into a sum of modal pulses that propagate with different phase speeds and can be described by a front pulse stabilization theory. The method is illustrated on two large-scale infrasound calibration experiments, that were conducted at the Sayarim Military Range, Israel, in 2009 and 2011.

Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Marlow, David; Ekström, Marie; Rhodes, Bruce G.; Kularathna, Udaya; Jeffrey, Paul J.

2014-04-01

Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the "decision scaling" methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision-critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.

Effective optimization using sample persistence: A case study on quantum annealers and various Monte Carlo optimization methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, Hamed; Rosenberg, Gili; Katzgraber, Helmut G.

2017-10-01

We present and apply a general-purpose, multistart algorithm for improving the performance of low-energy samplers used for solving optimization problems. The algorithm iteratively fixes the value of a large portion of the variables to values that have a high probability of being optimal. The resulting problems are smaller and less connected, and samplers tend to give better low-energy samples for these problems. The algorithm is trivially parallelizable since each start in the multistart algorithm is independent, and could be applied to any heuristic solver that can be run multiple times to give a sample. We present results for several classes of hard problems solved using simulated annealing, path-integral quantum Monte Carlo, parallel tempering with isoenergetic cluster moves, and a quantum annealer, and show that the success metrics and the scaling are improved substantially. When combined with this algorithm, the quantum annealer's scaling was substantially improved for native Chimera graph problems. In addition, with this algorithm the scaling of the time to solution of the quantum annealer is comparable to the Hamze-de Freitas-Selby algorithm on the weak-strong cluster problems introduced by Boixo et al. Parallel tempering with isoenergetic cluster moves was able to consistently solve three-dimensional spin glass problems with 8000 variables when combined with our method, whereas without our method it could not solve any.

Drainage Basins as Large-Scale Field Laboratories of Change: Hydro-biogeochemical- economic Model Study Support for Water Pollution and Eutrophication Management Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destouni, G.

2008-12-01

Excess nutrient and pollutant releases from various point and diffuse sources at and below the land surface, associated with land use, industry and households, pose serious eutrophication and pollution risks to inland and coastal water ecosystems worldwide. These risks must be assessed, for instance according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD demands economically efficient, basin-scale water management for achieving and maintaining good physico-chemical and ecological status in all the inland and coastal waters of EU member states. This paper synthesizes a series of hydro-biogeochemical and linked economic efficiency studies of basin-scale waterborne nutrient and pollutant flows, the development over the last decades up to the current levels of these flows, the main monitoring and modelling uncertainties associated with their quantification, and the effectiveness and economic efficiency of different possible abatement strategies for abating them in order to meet WFD requirements and other environmental goals on local, national and international levels under climate and other regional change. The studies include different Swedish and Baltic Sea drainage basins. Main findings include quantification of near-coastal monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient and pollutant memory in the subsurface (soil-groundwater-sediment) water systems of drainage basins. The former may significantly mask nutrient and pollutant loads to the sea while the latter may continue to uphold large loads to inland and coastal waters long time after source mitigation. A methodology is presented for finding a rational trade-off between the two resource-demanding options to reduce, or accept and explicitly account for the uncertainties implied by these monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient-pollution memories and time lags, and other knowledge, data and model uncertainties that limit the effectiveness and efficiency of water pollution and eutrophication management.

Development Optimization and Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Oil and Gas Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ettehadtavakkol, Amin, E-mail: amin.ettehadtavakkol@ttu.edu; Jablonowski, Christopher; Lake, Larry

Uncertainty complicates the development optimization of oil and gas exploration and production projects, but methods have been devised to analyze uncertainty and its impact on optimal decision-making. This paper compares two methods for development optimization and uncertainty analysis: Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and stochastic programming. Two example problems for a gas field development and an oilfield development are solved and discussed to elaborate the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Development optimization involves decisions regarding the configuration of initial capital investment and subsequent operational decisions. Uncertainty analysis involves the quantification of the impact of uncertain parameters on the optimum designmore » concept. The gas field development problem is designed to highlight the differences in the implementation of the two methods and to show that both methods yield the exact same optimum design. The results show that both MC optimization and stochastic programming provide unique benefits, and that the choice of method depends on the goal of the analysis. While the MC method generates more useful information, along with the optimum design configuration, the stochastic programming method is more computationally efficient in determining the optimal solution. Reservoirs comprise multiple compartments and layers with multiphase flow of oil, water, and gas. We present a workflow for development optimization under uncertainty for these reservoirs, and solve an example on the design optimization of a multicompartment, multilayer oilfield development.« less

Students' Use of Technological Tools for Verification Purposes in Geometry Problem Solving

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Dagdilelis, Vassilios

2008-01-01

Despite its importance in mathematical problem solving, verification receives rather little attention by the students in classrooms, especially at the primary school level. Under the hypotheses that (a) non-standard tasks create a feeling of uncertainty that stimulates the students to proceed to verification processes and (b) computational…

On the resilience of helical magnetic fields to turbulent diffusion and the astrophysical implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackman, Eric G.; Subramanian, Kandaswamy

2013-02-01

The extent to which large-scale magnetic fields are susceptible to turbulent diffusion is important for interpreting the need for in situ large-scale dynamos in astrophysics and for observationally inferring field strengths compared to kinetic energy. By solving coupled evolution equations for magnetic energy and magnetic helicity in a system initialized with isotropic turbulence and an arbitrarily helical large-scale field, we quantify the decay rate of the latter for a bounded or periodic system. The magnetic energy associated with the non-helical large-scale field decays at least as fast as the kinematically estimated turbulent diffusion rate, but the decay rate of the helical part depends on whether the ratio of its magnetic energy to the turbulent kinetic energy exceeds a critical value given by M1, c = (k1/k2)2, where k1 and k2 are the wavenumbers of the large and forcing scales. Turbulently diffusing helical fields to small scales while conserving magnetic helicity requires a rapid increase in total magnetic energy. As such, only when the helical field is subcritical can it so diffuse. When supercritical, it decays slowly, at a rate determined by microphysical dissipation even in the presence of macroscopic turbulence. In effect, turbulent diffusion of such a large-scale helical field produces small-scale helicity whose amplification abates further turbulent diffusion. Two curious implications are that (1) standard arguments supporting the need for in situ large-scale dynamos based on the otherwise rapid turbulent diffusion of large-scale fields require re-thinking since only the large-scale non-helical field is so diffused in a closed system. Boundary terms could however provide potential pathways for rapid change of the large-scale helical field. (2) Since M1, c ≪ 1 for k1 ≪ k2, the presence of long-lived ordered large-scale helical fields as in extragalactic jets do not guarantee that the magnetic field dominates the kinetic energy.

Conducting Automated Test Assembly Using the Premium Solver Platform Version 7.0 with Microsoft Excel and the Large-Scale LP/QP Solver Engine Add-In

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cor, Ken; Alves, Cecilia; Gierl, Mark J.

2008-01-01

This review describes and evaluates a software add-in created by Frontline Systems, Inc., that can be used with Microsoft Excel 2007 to solve large, complex test assembly problems. The combination of Microsoft Excel 2007 with the Frontline Systems Premium Solver Platform is significant because Microsoft Excel is the most commonly used spreadsheet…

Applications of artificial intelligence to digital photogrammetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kretsch, J.L.

1988-01-01

The aim of this research was to explore the application of expert systems to digital photogrammetry, specifically to photogrammetric triangulation, feature extraction, and photogrammetric problem solving. In 1987, prototype expert systems were developed for doing system startup, interior orientation, and relative orientation in the mensuration stage. The system explored means of performing diagnostics during the process. In the area of feature extraction, the relationship of metric uncertainty to symbolic uncertainty was the topic of research. Error propagation through the Dempster-Shafer formalism for representing evidence was performed in order to find the variance in the calculated belief values due to errorsmore » in measurements made together the initial evidence needed to being labeling of observed image features with features in an object model. In photogrammetric problem solving, an expert system is under continuous development which seeks to solve photogrammetric problems using mathematical reasoning. The key to the approach used is the representation of knowledge directly in the form of equations, rather than in the form of if-then rules. Then each variable in the equations is treated as a goal to be solved.« less

Sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to chemical kinetic uncertainties in air masses influenced by anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridley, D. A.; Cain, M.; Methven, J.; Arnold, S. R.

2017-07-01

We use a Lagrangian chemical transport model with a Monte Carlo approach to determine impacts of kinetic rate uncertainties on simulated concentrations of ozone, NOy and OH in a high-altitude biomass burning plume and a low-level industrial pollution plume undergoing long-range transport. Uncertainties in kinetic rate constants yield 10-12 ppbv (5th to 95th percentile) uncertainty in the ozone concentration, dominated by reactions that cycle NO and NO2, control NOx conversion to NOy reservoir species, and key reactions contributing to O3 loss (O(1D) + H2O, HO2 + O3). Our results imply that better understanding of the peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) thermal decomposition constant is key to predicting large-scale O3 production from fire emissions and uncertainty in the reaction of NO + O3 at low temperatures is particularly important for both the anthropogenic and biomass burning plumes. The highlighted reactions serve as a useful template for targeting new laboratory experiments aimed at reducing uncertainties in our understanding of tropospheric O3 photochemistry.

Uncertainty quantification of crustal scale thermo-chemical properties in Southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mather, B.; Moresi, L. N.; Rayner, P. J.

2017-12-01

The thermo-chemical properties of the crust are essential to understanding the mechanical and thermal state of the lithosphere. The uncertainties associated with these parameters are connected to the available geophysical observations and a priori information to constrain the objective function. Often, it is computationally efficient to reduce the parameter space by mapping large portions of the crust into lithologies that have assumed homogeneity. However, the boundaries of these lithologies are, in themselves, uncertain and should also be included in the inverse problem. We assimilate geological uncertainties from an a priori geological model of Southeast Australia with geophysical uncertainties from S-wave tomography and 174 heat flow observations within an adjoint inversion framework. This reduces the computational cost of inverting high dimensional probability spaces, compared to probabilistic inversion techniques that operate in the `forward' mode, but at the sacrifice of uncertainty and covariance information. We overcome this restriction using a sensitivity analysis, that perturbs our observations and a priori information within their probability distributions, to estimate the posterior uncertainty of thermo-chemical parameters in the crust.

High precision predictions for exclusive VH production at the LHC

DOE PAGES

Li, Ye; Liu, Xiaohui

2014-06-04

We present a resummation-improved prediction for pp → VH + 0 jets at the Large Hadron Collider. We focus on highly-boosted final states in the presence of jet veto to suppress the tt¯ background. In this case, conventional fixed-order calculations are plagued by the existence of large Sudakov logarithms α n slog m(p veto T/Q) for Q ~ m V + m H which lead to unreliable predictions as well as large theoretical uncertainties, and thus limit the accuracy when comparing experimental measurements to the Standard Model. In this work, we show that the resummation of Sudakov logarithms beyond themore » next-to-next-to-leading-log accuracy, combined with the next-to-next-to-leading order calculation, reduces the scale uncertainty and stabilizes the perturbative expansion in the region where the vector bosons carry large transverse momentum. Thus, our result improves the precision with which Higgs properties can be determined from LHC measurements using boosted Higgs techniques.« less

Generation Expansion Planning With Large Amounts of Wind Power via Decision-Dependent Stochastic Programming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhan, Yiduo; Zheng, Qipeng P.; Wang, Jianhui

Power generation expansion planning needs to deal with future uncertainties carefully, given that the invested generation assets will be in operation for a long time. Many stochastic programming models have been proposed to tackle this challenge. However, most previous works assume predetermined future uncertainties (i.e., fixed random outcomes with given probabilities). In several recent studies of generation assets' planning (e.g., thermal versus renewable), new findings show that the investment decisions could affect the future uncertainties as well. To this end, this paper proposes a multistage decision-dependent stochastic optimization model for long-term large-scale generation expansion planning, where large amounts of windmore » power are involved. In the decision-dependent model, the future uncertainties are not only affecting but also affected by the current decisions. In particular, the probability distribution function is determined by not only input parameters but also decision variables. To deal with the nonlinear constraints in our model, a quasi-exact solution approach is then introduced to reformulate the multistage stochastic investment model to a mixed-integer linear programming model. The wind penetration, investment decisions, and the optimality of the decision-dependent model are evaluated in a series of multistage case studies. The results show that the proposed decision-dependent model provides effective optimization solutions for long-term generation expansion planning.« less

[Research on non-rigid registration of multi-modal medical image based on Demons algorithm].

PubMed

Hao, Peibo; Chen, Zhen; Jiang, Shaofeng; Wang, Yang

2014-02-01

Non-rigid medical image registration is a popular subject in the research areas of the medical image and has an important clinical value. In this paper we put forward an improved algorithm of Demons, together with the conservation of gray model and local structure tensor conservation model, to construct a new energy function processing multi-modal registration problem. We then applied the L-BFGS algorithm to optimize the energy function and solve complex three-dimensional data optimization problem. And finally we used the multi-scale hierarchical refinement ideas to solve large deformation registration. The experimental results showed that the proposed algorithm for large de formation and multi-modal three-dimensional medical image registration had good effects.

Special issue of Computers and Fluids in honor of Cecil E. (Chuck) Leith

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Ye; Herring, Jackson

2017-05-12

Here, this special issue of Computers and Fluids is dedicated to Cecil E. (Chuck) Leith in honor of his research contributions, leadership in the areas of statistical fluid mechanics, computational fluid dynamics, and climate theory. Leith's contribution to these fields emerged from his interest in solving complex fluid flow problems--even those at high Mach numbers--in an era well before large scale supercomputing became the dominant mode of inquiry into these fields. Yet the issues raised and solved by his research effort are still of vital interest today.

A Block-LU Update for Large-Scale Linear Programming

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

linear programming problems. Results are given from runs on the Cray Y -MP. 1. Introduction We wish to use the simplex method [Dan63] to solve the...standard linear program, minimize cTx subject to Ax = b 1< x <U, where A is an m by n matrix and c, x, 1, u, and b are of appropriate dimension. The simplex...the identity matrix. The basis is used to solve for the search direction y and the dual variables 7r in the following linear systems: Bky = aq (1.2) and

Special issue of Computers and Fluids in honor of Cecil E. (Chuck) Leith

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ye; Herring, Jackson

Here, this special issue of Computers and Fluids is dedicated to Cecil E. (Chuck) Leith in honor of his research contributions, leadership in the areas of statistical fluid mechanics, computational fluid dynamics, and climate theory. Leith's contribution to these fields emerged from his interest in solving complex fluid flow problems--even those at high Mach numbers--in an era well before large scale supercomputing became the dominant mode of inquiry into these fields. Yet the issues raised and solved by his research effort are still of vital interest today.

DeepMeSH: deep semantic representation for improving large-scale MeSH indexing.

PubMed

Peng, Shengwen; You, Ronghui; Wang, Hongning; Zhai, Chengxiang; Mamitsuka, Hiroshi; Zhu, Shanfeng

2016-06-15

Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) indexing, which is to assign a set of MeSH main headings to citations, is crucial for many important tasks in biomedical text mining and information retrieval. Large-scale MeSH indexing has two challenging aspects: the citation side and MeSH side. For the citation side, all existing methods, including Medical Text Indexer (MTI) by National Library of Medicine and the state-of-the-art method, MeSHLabeler, deal with text by bag-of-words, which cannot capture semantic and context-dependent information well. We propose DeepMeSH that incorporates deep semantic information for large-scale MeSH indexing. It addresses the two challenges in both citation and MeSH sides. The citation side challenge is solved by a new deep semantic representation, D2V-TFIDF, which concatenates both sparse and dense semantic representations. The MeSH side challenge is solved by using the 'learning to rank' framework of MeSHLabeler, which integrates various types of evidence generated from the new semantic representation. DeepMeSH achieved a Micro F-measure of 0.6323, 2% higher than 0.6218 of MeSHLabeler and 12% higher than 0.5637 of MTI, for BioASQ3 challenge data with 6000 citations. The software is available upon request. zhusf@fudan.edu.cn Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

A Discrete Constraint for Entropy Conservation and Sound Waves in Cloud-Resolving Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Xi-Ping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne

2003-01-01

Ideal cloud-resolving models contain little-accumulative errors. When their domain is so large that synoptic large-scale circulations are accommodated, they can be used for the simulation of the interaction between convective clouds and the large-scale circulations. This paper sets up a framework for the models, using moist entropy as a prognostic variable and employing conservative numerical schemes. The models possess no accumulative errors of thermodynamic variables when they comply with a discrete constraint on entropy conservation and sound waves. Alternatively speaking, the discrete constraint is related to the correct representation of the large-scale convergence and advection of moist entropy. Since air density is involved in entropy conservation and sound waves, the challenge is how to compute sound waves efficiently under the constraint. To address the challenge, a compensation method is introduced on the basis of a reference isothermal atmosphere whose governing equations are solved analytically. Stability analysis and numerical experiments show that the method allows the models to integrate efficiently with a large time step.

On the role of minicomputers in structural design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storaasli, O. O.

1977-01-01

Results are presented of exploratory studies on the use of a minicomputer in conjunction with large-scale computers to perform structural design tasks, including data and program management, use of interactive graphics, and computations for structural analysis and design. An assessment is made of minicomputer use for the structural model definition and checking and for interpreting results. Included are results of computational experiments demonstrating the advantages of using both a minicomputer and a large computer to solve a large aircraft structural design problem.

Learning about new products: an empirical study of physicians' behavior.

PubMed

Ferreyra, Maria Marta; Kosenok, Grigory

2011-01-01

We develop and estimate a model of market demand for a new pharmaceutical, whose quality is learned through prescriptions by forward-looking physicians. We use a panel of antiulcer prescriptions from Italian physicians between 1990 and 1992 and focus on a new molecule available since 1990. We solve the model by calculating physicians' optimal decision rules as functions of their beliefs about the new pharmaceutical. According to our counterfactuals, physicians' initial pessimism and uncertainty can have large, negative effects on their propensity to prescribe the new drug and on expected health outcomes. In contrast, subsidizing the new good can mitigate informational losses.

An Extended, Problem-Based Learning Laboratory Exercise on the Diagnosis of Infectious Diseases Suitable for Large Level 1 Undergraduate Biology Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tatner, Mary; Tierney, Anne

2016-01-01

The development and evaluation of a two-week laboratory class, based on the diagnosis of human infectious diseases, is described. It can be easily scaled up or down, to suit class sizes from 50 to 600 and completed in a shorter time scale, and to different audiences as desired. Students employ a range of techniques to solve a real-life and…

The impact of uncertainty on optimal emission policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botta, Nicola; Jansson, Patrik; Ionescu, Cezar

2018-05-01

We apply a computational framework for specifying and solving sequential decision problems to study the impact of three kinds of uncertainties on optimal emission policies in a stylized sequential emission problem.We find that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) have a greater impact on optimal policies than uncertainties about the availability of effective emission reduction technologies and uncertainties about the implications of trespassing critical cumulated emission thresholds. The results show that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) call for more precautionary policies. In other words, delaying emission reductions to the point in time when effective technologies will become available is suboptimal when these uncertainties are accounted for rigorously. By contrast, uncertainties about the implications of exceeding critical cumulated emission thresholds tend to make early emission reductions less rewarding.

Uncertainty after treatment for prostate cancer: definition, assessment, and management.

PubMed

Yu Ko, Wellam F; Degner, Lesley F

2008-10-01

Prostate cancer is the second most common type of cancer in men living in the United States and the most common type of malignancy in Canadian men, accounting for 186,320 new cases in the United States and 24,700 in Canada in 2008. Uncertainty, a component of all illness experiences, influences how men perceive the processes of treatment and adaptation. The Reconceptualized Uncertainty in Illness Theory explains the chronic nature of uncertainty in cancer survivorship by describing a shift from an emergent acute phase of uncertainty in survivors to a new level of uncertainty that is no longer acute and becomes a part of daily life. Proper assessment of certainty and uncertainty may allow nurses to maximize the effectiveness of patient-provider communication, cognitive reframing, and problem-solving interventions to reduce uncertainty after cancer treatment.

Self-interacting inelastic dark matter: a viable solution to the small scale structure problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blennow, Mattias; Clementz, Stefan; Herrero-Garcia, Juan, E-mail: emb@kth.se, E-mail: scl@kth.se, E-mail: juan.herrero-garcia@adelaide.edu.au

2017-03-01

Self-interacting dark matter has been proposed as a solution to the small-scale structure problems, such as the observed flat cores in dwarf and low surface brightness galaxies. If scattering takes place through light mediators, the scattering cross section relevant to solve these problems may fall into the non-perturbative regime leading to a non-trivial velocity dependence, which allows compatibility with limits stemming from cluster-size objects. However, these models are strongly constrained by different observations, in particular from the requirements that the decay of the light mediator is sufficiently rapid (before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis) and from direct detection. A natural solution tomore » reconcile both requirements are inelastic endothermic interactions, such that scatterings in direct detection experiments are suppressed or even kinematically forbidden if the mass splitting between the two-states is sufficiently large. Using an exact solution when numerically solving the Schrödinger equation, we study such scenarios and find regions in the parameter space of dark matter and mediator masses, and the mass splitting of the states, where the small scale structure problems can be solved, the dark matter has the correct relic abundance and direct detection limits can be evaded.« less

Carbon storage in Chinese grassland ecosystems: Influence of different integrative methods.

PubMed

Ma, Anna; He, Nianpeng; Yu, Guirui; Wen, Ding; Peng, Shunlei

2016-02-17

The accurate estimate of grassland carbon (C) is affected by many factors at the large scale. Here, we used six methods (three spatial interpolation methods and three grassland classification methods) to estimate C storage of Chinese grasslands based on published data from 2004 to 2014, and assessed the uncertainty resulting from different integrative methods. The uncertainty (coefficient of variation, CV, %) of grassland C storage was approximately 4.8% for the six methods tested, which was mainly determined by soil C storage. C density and C storage to the soil layer depth of 100 cm were estimated to be 8.46 ± 0.41 kg C m(-2) and 30.98 ± 1.25 Pg C, respectively. Ecosystem C storage was composed of 0.23 ± 0.01 (0.7%) above-ground biomass, 1.38 ± 0.14 (4.5%) below-ground biomass, and 29.37 ± 1.2 (94.8%) Pg C in the 0-100 cm soil layer. Carbon storage calculated by the grassland classification methods (18 grassland types) was closer to the mean value than those calculated by the spatial interpolation methods. Differences in integrative methods may partially explain the high uncertainty in C storage estimates in different studies. This first evaluation demonstrates the importance of multi-methodological approaches to accurately estimate C storage in large-scale terrestrial ecosystems.

Interface COMSOL-PHREEQC (iCP), an efficient numerical framework for the solution of coupled multiphysics and geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nardi, Albert; Idiart, Andrés; Trinchero, Paolo; de Vries, Luis Manuel; Molinero, Jorge

2014-08-01

This paper presents the development, verification and application of an efficient interface, denoted as iCP, which couples two standalone simulation programs: the general purpose Finite Element framework COMSOL Multiphysics® and the geochemical simulator PHREEQC. The main goal of the interface is to maximize the synergies between the aforementioned codes, providing a numerical platform that can efficiently simulate a wide number of multiphysics problems coupled with geochemistry. iCP is written in Java and uses the IPhreeqc C++ dynamic library and the COMSOL Java-API. Given the large computational requirements of the aforementioned coupled models, special emphasis has been placed on numerical robustness and efficiency. To this end, the geochemical reactions are solved in parallel by balancing the computational load over multiple threads. First, a benchmark exercise is used to test the reliability of iCP regarding flow and reactive transport. Then, a large scale thermo-hydro-chemical (THC) problem is solved to show the code capabilities. The results of the verification exercise are successfully compared with those obtained using PHREEQC and the application case demonstrates the scalability of a large scale model, at least up to 32 threads.

Transmission Technologies and Operational Characteristic Analysis of Hybrid UHV AC/DC Power Grids in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Zhang; Yanfeng, Gong

2017-05-01

In order to solve the contradiction between demand and distribution range of primary energy resource, Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power grids should be developed rapidly to meet development of energy bases and accessing of large-scale renewable energy. This paper reviewed the latest research processes of AC/DC transmission technologies, summarized the characteristics of AC/DC power grids, concluded that China’s power grids certainly enter a new period of large -scale hybrid UHV AC/DC power grids and characteristics of “strong DC and weak AC” becomes increasingly pro minent; possible problems in operation of AC/DC power grids was discussed, and interaction or effect between AC/DC power grids was made an intensive study of; according to above problems in operation of power grids, preliminary scheme is summarized as fo llows: strengthening backbone structures, enhancing AC/DC transmission technologies, promoting protection measures of clean energ y accessing grids, and taking actions to solve stability problems of voltage and frequency etc. It’s valuable for making hybrid UHV AC/DC power grids adapt to operating mode of large power grids, thus guaranteeing security and stability of power system.

Constraints on the Origin of Cosmic Rays above 1018 eV from Large-scale Anisotropy Searches in Data of the Pierre Auger Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierre Auger Collaboration; Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.; Ahlers, M.; Ahn, E. J.; Albuquerque, I. F. M.; Allard, D.; Allekotte, I.; Allen, J.; Allison, P.; Almela, A.; Alvarez Castillo, J.; Alvarez-Muñiz, J.; Alves Batista, R.; Ambrosio, M.; Aminaei, A.; Anchordoqui, L.; Andringa, S.; Antiči'c, T.; Aramo, C.; Arganda, E.; Arqueros, F.; Asorey, H.; Assis, P.; Aublin, J.; Ave, M.; Avenier, M.; Avila, G.; Badescu, A. M.; Balzer, M.; Barber, K. B.; Barbosa, A. F.; Bardenet, R.; Barroso, S. L. C.; Baughman, B.; Bäuml, J.; Baus, C.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker, K. H.; Bellétoile, A.; Bellido, J. A.; BenZvi, S.; Berat, C.; Bertou, X.; Biermann, P. L.; Billoir, P.; Blanco, F.; Blanco, M.; Bleve, C.; Blümer, H.; Boháčová, M.; Boncioli, D.; Bonifazi, C.; Bonino, R.; Borodai, N.; Brack, J.; Brancus, I.; Brogueira, P.; Brown, W. C.; Bruijn, R.; Buchholz, P.; Bueno, A.; Buroker, L.; Burton, R. E.; Caballero-Mora, K. S.; Caccianiga, B.; Caramete, L.; Caruso, R.; Castellina, A.; Catalano, O.; Cataldi, G.; Cazon, L.; Cester, R.; Chauvin, J.; Cheng, S. H.; Chiavassa, A.; Chinellato, J. A.; Chirinos Diaz, J.; Chudoba, J.; Cilmo, M.; Clay, R. W.; Cocciolo, G.; Collica, L.; Coluccia, M. R.; Conceição, R.; Contreras, F.; Cook, H.; Cooper, M. J.; Coppens, J.; Cordier, A.; Coutu, S.; Covault, C. E.; Creusot, A.; Criss, A.; Cronin, J.; Curutiu, A.; Dagoret-Campagne, S.; Dallier, R.; Daniel, B.; Dasso, S.; Daumiller, K.; Dawson, B. R.; de Almeida, R. M.; De Domenico, M.; De Donato, C.; de Jong, S. J.; De La Vega, G.; de Mello Junior, W. J. M.; de Mello Neto, J. R. T.; De Mitri, I.; de Souza, V.; de Vries, K. D.; del Peral, L.; del Río, M.; Deligny, O.; Dembinski, H.; Dhital, N.; Di Giulio, C.; Díaz Castro, M. L.; Diep, P. N.; Diogo, F.; Dobrigkeit, C.; Docters, W.; D'Olivo, J. C.; Dong, P. N.; Dorofeev, A.; dos Anjos, J. C.; Dova, M. T.; D'Urso, D.; Dutan, I.; Ebr, J.; Engel, R.; Erdmann, M.; Escobar, C. O.; Espadanal, J.; Etchegoyen, A.; Facal San Luis, P.; Falcke, H.; Fang, K.; Farrar, G.; Fauth, A. C.; Fazzini, N.; Ferguson, A. P.; Fick, B.; Figueira, J. M.; Filevich, A.; Filipčič, A.; Fliescher, S.; Fracchiolla, C. E.; Fraenkel, E. D.; Fratu, O.; Fröhlich, U.; Fuchs, B.; Gaior, R.; Gamarra, R. F.; Gambetta, S.; García, B.; Garcia Roca, S. T.; Garcia-Gamez, D.; Garcia-Pinto, D.; Garilli, G.; Gascon Bravo, A.; Gemmeke, H.; Ghia, P. L.; Giller, M.; Gitto, J.; Glass, H.; Gold, M. S.; Golup, G.; Gomez Albarracin, F.; Gómez Berisso, M.; Gómez Vitale, P. F.; Gonçalves, P.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Gookin, B.; Gorgi, A.; Gouffon, P.; Grashorn, E.; Grebe, S.; Griffith, N.; Grillo, A. F.; Guardincerri, Y.; Guarino, F.; Guedes, G. P.; Hansen, P.; Harari, D.; Harrison, T. A.; Harton, J. L.; Haungs, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heck, D.; Herve, A. E.; Hill, G. C.; Hojvat, C.; Hollon, N.; Holmes, V. C.; Homola, P.; Hörandel, J. R.; Horvath, P.; Hrabovský, M.; Huber, D.; Huege, T.; Insolia, A.; Ionita, F.; Italiano, A.; Jansen, S.; Jarne, C.; Jiraskova, S.; Josebachuili, M.; Kadija, K.; Kampert, K. H.; Karhan, P.; Kasper, P.; Katkov, I.; Kégl, B.; Keilhauer, B.; Keivani, A.; Kelley, J. L.; Kemp, E.; Kieckhafer, R. M.; Klages, H. O.; Kleifges, M.; Kleinfeller, J.; Knapp, J.; Koang, D.-H.; Kotera, K.; Krohm, N.; Krömer, O.; Kruppke-Hansen, D.; Kuempel, D.; Kulbartz, J. K.; Kunka, N.; La Rosa, G.; Lachaud, C.; LaHurd, D.; Latronico, L.; Lauer, R.; Lautridou, P.; Le Coz, S.; Leão, M. S. A. B.; Lebrun, D.; Lebrun, P.; Leigui de Oliveira, M. A.; Letessier-Selvon, A.; Lhenry-Yvon, I.; Link, K.; López, R.; Lopez Agüera, A.; Louedec, K.; Lozano Bahilo, J.; Lu, L.; Lucero, A.; Ludwig, M.; Lyberis, H.; Maccarone, M. C.; Macolino, C.; Maldera, S.; Maller, J.; Mandat, D.; Mantsch, P.; Mariazzi, A. G.; Marin, J.; Marin, V.; Maris, I. C.; Marquez Falcon, H. R.; Marsella, G.; Martello, D.; Martin, L.; Martinez, H.; Martínez Bravo, O.; Martraire, D.; Masías Meza, J. J.; Mathes, H. J.; Matthews, J.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthiae, G.; Maurel, D.; Maurizio, D.; Mazur, P. O.; Medina-Tanco, G.; Melissas, M.; Melo, D.; Menichetti, E.; Menshikov, A.; Mertsch, P.; Messina, S.; Meurer, C.; Meyhandan, R.; Mi'canovi'c, S.; Micheletti, M. I.; Minaya, I. A.; Miramonti, L.; Molina-Bueno, L.; Mollerach, S.; Monasor, M.; Monnier Ragaigne, D.; Montanet, F.; Morales, B.; Morello, C.; Moreno, E.; Moreno, J. C.; Mostafá, M.; Moura, C. A.; Muller, M. A.; Müller, G.; Münchmeyer, M.; Mussa, R.; Navarra, G.; Navarro, J. L.; Navas, S.; Necesal, P.; Nellen, L.; Nelles, A.; Neuser, J.; Nhung, P. T.; Niechciol, M.; Niemietz, L.; Nierstenhoefer, N.; Nitz, D.; Nosek, D.; Nožka, L.; Oehlschläger, J.; Olinto, A.; Ortiz, M.; Pacheco, N.; Pakk Selmi-Dei, D.; Palatka, M.; Pallotta, J.; Palmieri, N.; Parente, G.; Parizot, E.; Parra, A.; Pastor, S.; Paul, T.; Pech, M.; Peķala, J.; Pelayo, R.; Pepe, I. M.; Perrone, L.; Pesce, R.; Petermann, E.; Petrera, S.; Petrolini, A.; Petrov, Y.; Pfendner, C.; Piegaia, R.; Pierog, T.; Pieroni, P.; Pimenta, M.; Pirronello, V.; Platino, M.; Plum, M.; Ponce, V. H.; Pontz, M.; Porcelli, A.; Privitera, P.; Prouza, M.; Quel, E. J.; Querchfeld, S.; Rautenberg, J.; Ravel, O.; Ravignani, D.; Revenu, B.; Ridky, J.; Riggi, S.; Risse, M.; Ristori, P.; Rivera, H.; Rizi, V.; Roberts, J.; Rodrigues de Carvalho, W.; Rodriguez, G.; Rodriguez Cabo, I.; Rodriguez Martino, J.; Rodriguez Rojo, J.; Rodríguez-Frías, M. D.; Ros, G.; Rosado, J.; Rossler, T.; Roth, M.; Rouillé-d'Orfeuil, B.; Roulet, E.; Rovero, A. C.; Rühle, C.; Saftoiu, A.; Salamida, F.; Salazar, H.; Salesa Greus, F.; Salina, G.; Sánchez, F.; Santo, C. E.; Santos, E.; Santos, E. M.; Sarazin, F.; Sarkar, B.; Sarkar, S.; Sato, R.; Scharf, N.; Scherini, V.; Schieler, H.; Schiffer, P.; Schmidt, A.; Scholten, O.; Schoorlemmer, H.; Schovancova, J.; Schovánek, P.; Schröder, F.; Schuster, D.; Sciutto, S. J.; Scuderi, M.; Segreto, A.; Settimo, M.; Shadkam, A.; Shellard, R. C.; Sidelnik, I.; Sigl, G.; Silva Lopez, H. H.; Sima, O.; 'Smiałkowski, A.; Šmída, R.; Snow, G. R.; Sommers, P.; Sorokin, J.; Spinka, H.; Squartini, R.; Srivastava, Y. N.; Stanic, S.; Stapleton, J.; Stasielak, J.; Stephan, M.; Stutz, A.; Suarez, F.; Suomijärvi, T.; Supanitsky, A. D.; Šuša, T.; Sutherland, M. S.; Swain, J.; Szadkowski, Z.; Szuba, M.; Tapia, A.; Tartare, M.; Taşcău, O.; Tcaciuc, R.; Thao, N. T.; Thomas, D.; Tiffenberg, J.; Timmermans, C.; Tkaczyk, W.; Todero Peixoto, C. J.; Toma, G.; Tomankova, L.; Tomé, B.; Tonachini, A.; Torralba Elipe, G.; Travnicek, P.; Tridapalli, D. B.; Tristram, G.; Trovato, E.; Tueros, M.; Ulrich, R.; Unger, M.; Urban, M.; Valdés Galicia, J. F.; Valiño, I.; Valore, L.; van Aar, G.; van den Berg, A. M.; van Velzen, S.; van Vliet, A.; Varela, E.; Vargas Cárdenas, B.; Vázquez, J. R.; Vázquez, R. A.; Veberič, D.; Verzi, V.; Vicha, J.; Videla, M.; Villaseñor, L.; Wahlberg, H.; Wahrlich, P.; Wainberg, O.; Walz, D.; Watson, A. A.; Weber, M.; Weidenhaupt, K.; Weindl, A.; Werner, F.; Westerhoff, S.; Whelan, B. J.; Widom, A.; Wieczorek, G.; Wiencke, L.; Wilczyńska, B.; Wilczyński, H.; Will, M.; Williams, C.; Winchen, T.; Wommer, M.; Wundheiler, B.; Yamamoto, T.; Yapici, T.; Younk, P.; Yuan, G.; Yushkov, A.; Zamorano Garcia, B.; Zas, E.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zavrtanik, M.; Zaw, I.; Zepeda, A.; Zhou, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zimbres Silva, M.; Ziolkowski, M.

2013-01-01

A thorough search for large-scale anisotropies in the distribution of arrival directions of cosmic rays detected above 1018 eV at the Pierre Auger Observatory is reported. For the first time, these large-scale anisotropy searches are performed as a function of both the right ascension and the declination and expressed in terms of dipole and quadrupole moments. Within the systematic uncertainties, no significant deviation from isotropy is revealed. Upper limits on dipole and quadrupole amplitudes are derived under the hypothesis that any cosmic ray anisotropy is dominated by such moments in this energy range. These upper limits provide constraints on the production of cosmic rays above 1018 eV, since they allow us to challenge an origin from stationary galactic sources densely distributed in the galactic disk and emitting predominantly light particles in all directions.

Gaussian processes for personalized e-health monitoring with wearable sensors.

PubMed

Clifton, Lei; Clifton, David A; Pimentel, Marco A F; Watkinson, Peter J; Tarassenko, Lionel

2013-01-01

Advances in wearable sensing and communications infrastructure have allowed the widespread development of prototype medical devices for patient monitoring. However, such devices have not penetrated into clinical practice, primarily due to a lack of research into "intelligent" analysis methods that are sufficiently robust to support large-scale deployment. Existing systems are typically plagued by large false-alarm rates, and an inability to cope with sensor artifact in a principled manner. This paper has two aims: 1) proposal of a novel, patient-personalized system for analysis and inference in the presence of data uncertainty, typically caused by sensor artifact and data incompleteness; 2) demonstration of the method using a large-scale clinical study in which 200 patients have been monitored using the proposed system. This latter provides much-needed evidence that personalized e-health monitoring is feasible within an actual clinical environment, at scale, and that the method is capable of improving patient outcomes via personalized healthcare.

Coupling lattice Boltzmann and continuum equations for flow and reactive transport in porous media.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coon, Ethan; Porter, Mark L.; Kang, Qinjun

2012-06-18

In spatially and temporally localized instances, capturing sub-reservoir scale information is necessary. Capturing sub-reservoir scale information everywhere is neither necessary, nor computationally possible. The lattice Boltzmann Method for solving pore-scale systems. At the pore-scale, LBM provides an extremely scalable, efficient way of solving Navier-Stokes equations on complex geometries. Coupling pore-scale and continuum scale systems via domain decomposition. By leveraging the interpolations implied by pore-scale and continuum scale discretizations, overlapping Schwartz domain decomposition is used to ensure continuity of pressure and flux. This approach is demonstrated on a fractured medium, in which Navier-Stokes equations are solved within the fracture while Darcy'smore » equation is solved away from the fracture Coupling reactive transport to pore-scale flow simulators allows hybrid approaches to be extended to solve multi-scale reactive transport.« less

Temperament and problem solving in a population of adolescent guide dogs.

PubMed

Bray, Emily E; Sammel, Mary D; Seyfarth, Robert M; Serpell, James A; Cheney, Dorothy L

2017-09-01

It is often assumed that measures of temperament within individuals are more correlated to one another than to measures of problem solving. However, the exact relationship between temperament and problem-solving tasks remains unclear because large-scale studies have typically focused on each independently. To explore this relationship, we tested 119 prospective adolescent guide dogs on a battery of 11 temperament and problem-solving tasks. We then summarized the data using both confirmatory factor analysis and exploratory principal components analysis. Results of confirmatory analysis revealed that a priori separation of tests as measuring either temperament or problem solving led to weak results, poor model fit, some construct validity, and no predictive validity. In contrast, results of exploratory analysis were best summarized by principal components that mixed temperament and problem-solving traits. These components had both construct and predictive validity (i.e., association with success in the guide dog training program). We conclude that there is complex interplay between tasks of "temperament" and "problem solving" and that the study of both together will be more informative than approaches that consider either in isolation.

Uncertainty analysis in ecological studies: an overview

Treesearch

Harbin Li; Jianguo Wu

2006-01-01

Large-scale simulation models are essential tools for scientific research and environmental decision-making because they can be used to synthesize knowledge, predict consequences of potential scenarios, and develop optimal solutions (Clark et al. 2001, Berk et al. 2002, Katz 2002). Modeling is often the only means of addressing complex environmental problems that occur...

Comparing large-scale hydrological model predictions with observed streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: effects of climate and groundwater

Treesearch

Mohammad Safeeq; Guillaume S. Mauger; Gordon E. Grant; Ivan Arismendi; Alan F. Hamlet; Se-Yeun Lee

2014-01-01

Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (1/16°) and fine (1/120°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In...

Uncertainties in Atomic Data and Their Propagation Through Spectral Models. I.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bautista, M. A.; Fivet, V.; Quinet, P.; Dunn, J.; Gull, T. R.; Kallman, T. R.; Mendoza, C.

2013-01-01

We present a method for computing uncertainties in spectral models, i.e., level populations, line emissivities, and emission line ratios, based upon the propagation of uncertainties originating from atomic data.We provide analytic expressions, in the form of linear sets of algebraic equations, for the coupled uncertainties among all levels. These equations can be solved efficiently for any set of physical conditions and uncertainties in the atomic data. We illustrate our method applied to spectral models of Oiii and Fe ii and discuss the impact of the uncertainties on atomic systems under different physical conditions. As to intrinsic uncertainties in theoretical atomic data, we propose that these uncertainties can be estimated from the dispersion in the results from various independent calculations. This technique provides excellent results for the uncertainties in A-values of forbidden transitions in [Fe ii]. Key words: atomic data - atomic processes - line: formation - methods: data analysis - molecular data - molecular processes - techniques: spectroscopic

Diffusion, Dispersion, and Uncertainty in Anisotropic Fractal Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnig, N. D.; Benson, D. A.

2007-12-01

Motivated by field measurements of aquifer hydraulic conductivity (K), recent techniques were developed to construct anisotropic fractal random fields, in which the scaling, or self-similarity parameter, varies with direction and is defined by a matrix. Ensemble numerical results are analyzed for solute transport through these 2-D "operator-scaling" fractional Brownian motion (fBm) ln(K) fields. Contrary to some analytic stochastic theories for monofractal K fields, the plume growth rates never exceed Mercado's (1967) purely stratified aquifer growth rate of plume apparent dispersivity proportional to mean distance. Apparent super-stratified growth must be the result of other demonstrable factors, such as initial plume size. The addition of large local dispersion and diffusion does not significantly change the effective longitudinal dispersivity of the plumes. In the presence of significant local dispersion or diffusion, the concentration coefficient of variation CV={σc}/{\\langle c \\rangle} remains large at the leading edge of the plumes. This indicates that even with considerable mixing due to dispersion or diffusion, there is still substantial uncertainty in the leading edge of a plume moving in fractal porous media.

In-Flight Measurement of the Absolute Energy Scale of the Fermi Large Area Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Allafort, A.; Atwood, W. B.; Axelsson, M.; Baldini, L.; Barbielini, G; Bastieri, D.; Bechtol, K.; Bellazzini, R.;

In-Flight Measurement of the Absolute Energy Scale of the Fermi Large Area Telescope

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.; /Stanford U., HEPL /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Ajello, M.

The Large Area Telescope (LAT) on-board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope is a pair-conversion telescope designed to survey the gamma-ray sky from 20 MeV to several hundreds of GeV. In this energy band there are no astronomical sources with sufficiently well known and sharp spectral features to allow an absolute calibration of the LAT energy scale. However, the geomagnetic cutoff in the cosmic ray electron-plus-positron (CRE) spectrum in low Earth orbit does provide such a spectral feature. The energy and spectral shape of this cutoff can be calculated with the aid of a numerical code tracing charged particles in themore » Earth's magnetic field. By comparing the cutoff value with that measured by the LAT in different geomagnetic positions, we have obtained several calibration points between {approx}6 and {approx}13 GeV with an estimated uncertainty of {approx}2%. An energy calibration with such high accuracy reduces the systematic uncertainty in LAT measurements of, for example, the spectral cutoff in the emission from gamma ray pulsars.« less

Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2017-10-01

Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0-30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate internal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders' scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indirectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primarily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure relative agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less variability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. However, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continental, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century.

Designing Cognitive Complexity in Mathematical Problem-Solving Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daniel, Robert C.; Embretson, Susan E.

2010-01-01

Cognitive complexity level is important for measuring both aptitude and achievement in large-scale testing. Tests for standards-based assessment of mathematics, for example, often include cognitive complexity level in the test blueprint. However, little research exists on how mathematics items can be designed to vary in cognitive complexity level.…

Algorithms for Mathematical Programming with Emphasis on Bi-level Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldfarb, Donald; Iyengar, Garud

2014-05-22

The research supported by this grant was focused primarily on first-order methods for solving large scale and structured convex optimization problems and convex relaxations of nonconvex problems. These include optimal gradient methods, operator and variable splitting methods, alternating direction augmented Lagrangian methods, and block coordinate descent methods.

Large-Scale Stratospheric Transport Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plumb, R. Alan

2001-01-01

The paper discusses the following: 1. The Brewer-Dobson circulation: tropical upwelling. 2. Mixing into polar vortices. 3. The latitudinal structure of "age" in the stratosphere. 4. The subtropical "tracer edges". 5. Transport in the lower troposphere. 6. Tracer modeling during SOLVE. 7. 3D modeling of "mean age". 8. Models and measurements II.

Ordering Unstructured Meshes for Sparse Matrix Computations on Leading Parallel Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliker, Leonid; Li, Xiaoye; Heber, Gerd; Biswas, Rupak

2000-01-01

The ability of computers to solve hitherto intractable problems and simulate complex processes using mathematical models makes them an indispensable part of modern science and engineering. Computer simulations of large-scale realistic applications usually require solving a set of non-linear partial differential equations (PDES) over a finite region. For example, one thrust area in the DOE Grand Challenge projects is to design future accelerators such as the SpaHation Neutron Source (SNS). Our colleagues at SLAC need to model complex RFQ cavities with large aspect ratios. Unstructured grids are currently used to resolve the small features in a large computational domain; dynamic mesh adaptation will be added in the future for additional efficiency. The PDEs for electromagnetics are discretized by the FEM method, which leads to a generalized eigenvalue problem Kx = AMx, where K and M are the stiffness and mass matrices, and are very sparse. In a typical cavity model, the number of degrees of freedom is about one million. For such large eigenproblems, direct solution techniques quickly reach the memory limits. Instead, the most widely-used methods are Krylov subspace methods, such as Lanczos or Jacobi-Davidson. In all the Krylov-based algorithms, sparse matrix-vector multiplication (SPMV) must be performed repeatedly. Therefore, the efficiency of SPMV usually determines the eigensolver speed. SPMV is also one of the most heavily used kernels in large-scale numerical simulations.

Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenzel, F.

2009-12-01

The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

On distributed wavefront reconstruction for large-scale adaptive optics systems.

PubMed

de Visser, Cornelis C; Brunner, Elisabeth; Verhaegen, Michel

2016-05-01

The distributed-spline-based aberration reconstruction (D-SABRE) method is proposed for distributed wavefront reconstruction with applications to large-scale adaptive optics systems. D-SABRE decomposes the wavefront sensor domain into any number of partitions and solves a local wavefront reconstruction problem on each partition using multivariate splines. D-SABRE accuracy is within 1% of a global approach with a speedup that scales quadratically with the number of partitions. The D-SABRE is compared to the distributed cumulative reconstruction (CuRe-D) method in open-loop and closed-loop simulations using the YAO adaptive optics simulation tool. D-SABRE accuracy exceeds CuRe-D for low levels of decomposition, and D-SABRE proved to be more robust to variations in the loop gain.

A survey of resilience, burnout, and tolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice registrars

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Burnout and intolerance of uncertainty have been linked to low job satisfaction and lower quality patient care. While resilience is related to these concepts, no study has examined these three concepts in a cohort of doctors. The objective of this study was to measure resilience, burnout, compassion satisfaction, personal meaning in patient care and intolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice (GP) registrars. Methods We conducted a paper-based cross-sectional survey of GP registrars in Australia from June to July 2010, recruited from a newsletter item or registrar education events. Survey measures included the Resilience Scale-14, a single-item scale for burnout, Professional Quality of Life (ProQOL) scale, Personal Meaning in Patient Care scale, Intolerance of Uncertainty-12 scale, and Physician Response to Uncertainty scale. Results 128 GP registrars responded (response rate 90%). Fourteen percent of registrars were found to be at risk of burnout using the single-item scale for burnout, but none met the criteria for burnout using the ProQOL scale. Secondary traumatic stress, general intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety due to clinical uncertainty and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients were associated with being at higher risk of burnout, but sex, age, practice location, training duration, years since graduation, and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to physicians were not. Only ten percent of registrars had high resilience scores. Resilience was positively associated with compassion satisfaction and personal meaning in patient care. Resilience was negatively associated with burnout, secondary traumatic stress, inhibitory anxiety, general intolerance to uncertainty, concern about bad outcomes and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients. Conclusions GP registrars in this survey showed a lower level of burnout than in other recent surveys of the broader junior doctor population in both Australia and overseas. Resilience was also lower than might be expected of a satisfied and professionally successful cohort. PMID:23294479

A survey of resilience, burnout, and tolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice registrars.

PubMed

Cooke, Georga P E; Doust, Jenny A; Steele, Michael C

2013-01-07

Burnout and intolerance of uncertainty have been linked to low job satisfaction and lower quality patient care. While resilience is related to these concepts, no study has examined these three concepts in a cohort of doctors. The objective of this study was to measure resilience, burnout, compassion satisfaction, personal meaning in patient care and intolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice (GP) registrars. We conducted a paper-based cross-sectional survey of GP registrars in Australia from June to July 2010, recruited from a newsletter item or registrar education events. Survey measures included the Resilience Scale-14, a single-item scale for burnout, Professional Quality of Life (ProQOL) scale, Personal Meaning in Patient Care scale, Intolerance of Uncertainty-12 scale, and Physician Response to Uncertainty scale. 128 GP registrars responded (response rate 90%). Fourteen percent of registrars were found to be at risk of burnout using the single-item scale for burnout, but none met the criteria for burnout using the ProQOL scale. Secondary traumatic stress, general intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety due to clinical uncertainty and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients were associated with being at higher risk of burnout, but sex, age, practice location, training duration, years since graduation, and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to physicians were not.Only ten percent of registrars had high resilience scores. Resilience was positively associated with compassion satisfaction and personal meaning in patient care. Resilience was negatively associated with burnout, secondary traumatic stress, inhibitory anxiety, general intolerance to uncertainty, concern about bad outcomes and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients. GP registrars in this survey showed a lower level of burnout than in other recent surveys of the broader junior doctor population in both Australia and overseas. Resilience was also lower than might be expected of a satisfied and professionally successful cohort.

Modular Approaches to Earth Science Scientific Computing: 3D Electromagnetic Induction Modeling as an Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tandon, K.; Egbert, G.; Siripunvaraporn, W.

2003-12-01

We are developing a modular system for three-dimensional inversion of electromagnetic (EM) induction data, using an object oriented programming approach. This approach allows us to modify the individual components of the inversion scheme proposed, and also reuse the components for variety of problems in earth science computing howsoever diverse they might be. In particular, the modularity allows us to (a) change modeling codes independently of inversion algorithm details; (b) experiment with new inversion algorithms; and (c) modify the way prior information is imposed in the inversion to test competing hypothesis and techniques required to solve an earth science problem. Our initial code development is for EM induction equations on a staggered grid, using iterative solution techniques in 3D. An example illustrated here is an experiment with the sensitivity of 3D magnetotelluric inversion to uncertainties in the boundary conditions required for regional induction problems. These boundary conditions should reflect the large-scale geoelectric structure of the study area, which is usually poorly constrained. In general for inversion of MT data, one fixes boundary conditions at the edge of the model domain, and adjusts the earth?s conductivity structure within the modeling domain. Allowing for errors in specification of the open boundary values is simple in principle, but no existing inversion codes that we are aware of have this feature. Adding a feature such as this is straightforward within the context of the modular approach. More generally, a modular approach provides an efficient methodology for setting up earth science computing problems to test various ideas. As a concrete illustration relevant to EM induction problems, we investigate the sensitivity of MT data near San Andreas Fault at Parkfield (California) to uncertainties in the regional geoelectric structure.

Planck 2015 results. III. LFI systematic uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaglia, P.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R. C.; Calabrese, E.; Catalano, A.; Christensen, P. R.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Cruz, M.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J. M.; Doré, O.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Finelli, F.; Frailis, M.; Franceschet, C.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F. K.; Harrison, D. L.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kisner, T. S.; Knoche, J.; Krachmalnicoff, N.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leahy, J. P.; Leonardi, R.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; Lindholm, V.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maffei, B.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Meinhold, P. R.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Noviello, F.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Pearson, T. J.; Perdereau, O.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G. W.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Scott, D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vassallo, T.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; Watson, R.; Wehus, I. K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zibin, J. P.; Zonca, A.

2016-09-01

We present the current accounting of systematic effect uncertainties for the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) that are relevant to the 2015 release of the Planck cosmological results, showing the robustness and consistency of our data set, especially for polarization analysis. We use two complementary approaches: (I) simulations based on measured data and physical models of the known systematic effects; and (II) analysis of difference maps containing the same sky signal ("null-maps"). The LFI temperature data are limited by instrumental noise. At large angular scales the systematic effects are below the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature power spectrum by several orders of magnitude. In polarization the systematic uncertainties are dominated by calibration uncertainties and compete with the CMB E-modes in the multipole range 10-20. Based on our model of all known systematic effects, we show that these effects introduce a slight bias of around 0.2σ on the reionization optical depth derived from the 70GHz EE spectrum using the 30 and 353GHz channels as foreground templates. At 30GHz the systematic effects are smaller than the Galactic foreground at all scales in temperature and polarization, which allows us to consider this channel as a reliable template of synchrotron emission. We assess the residual uncertainties due to LFI effects on CMB maps and power spectra after component separation and show that these effects are smaller than the CMB amplitude at all scales. We also assess the impact on non-Gaussianity studies and find it to be negligible. Some residuals still appear in null maps from particular sky survey pairs, particularly at 30 GHz, suggesting possible straylight contamination due to an imperfect knowledge of the beam far sidelobes.

Planck 2015 results: III. LFI systematic uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Ade, P. A. R.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; ...

2016-09-20

In this paper, we present the current accounting of systematic effect uncertainties for the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) that are relevant to the 2015 release of the Planck cosmological results, showing the robustness and consistency of our data set, especially for polarization analysis. We use two complementary approaches: (i) simulations based on measured data and physical models of the known systematic effects; and (ii) analysis of difference maps containing the same sky signal (“null-maps”). The LFI temperature data are limited by instrumental noise. At large angular scales the systematic effects are below the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature power spectrummore » by several orders of magnitude. In polarization the systematic uncertainties are dominated by calibration uncertainties and compete with the CMB E-modes in the multipole range 10–20. Based on our model of all known systematic effects, we show that these effects introduce a slight bias of around 0.2σ on the reionization optical depth derived from the 70GHz EE spectrum using the 30 and 353GHz channels as foreground templates. At 30GHz the systematic effects are smaller than the Galactic foreground at all scales in temperature and polarization, which allows us to consider this channel as a reliable template of synchrotron emission. We assess the residual uncertainties due to LFI effects on CMB maps and power spectra after component separation and show that these effects are smaller than the CMB amplitude at all scales. We also assess the impact on non-Gaussianity studies and find it to be negligible. Finally, some residuals still appear in null maps from particular sky survey pairs, particularly at 30 GHz, suggesting possible straylight contamination due to an imperfect knowledge of the beam far sidelobes.« less

Planck 2015 results: III. LFI systematic uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ade, P. A. R.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.

In this paper, we present the current accounting of systematic effect uncertainties for the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) that are relevant to the 2015 release of the Planck cosmological results, showing the robustness and consistency of our data set, especially for polarization analysis. We use two complementary approaches: (i) simulations based on measured data and physical models of the known systematic effects; and (ii) analysis of difference maps containing the same sky signal (“null-maps”). The LFI temperature data are limited by instrumental noise. At large angular scales the systematic effects are below the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature power spectrummore » by several orders of magnitude. In polarization the systematic uncertainties are dominated by calibration uncertainties and compete with the CMB E-modes in the multipole range 10–20. Based on our model of all known systematic effects, we show that these effects introduce a slight bias of around 0.2σ on the reionization optical depth derived from the 70GHz EE spectrum using the 30 and 353GHz channels as foreground templates. At 30GHz the systematic effects are smaller than the Galactic foreground at all scales in temperature and polarization, which allows us to consider this channel as a reliable template of synchrotron emission. We assess the residual uncertainties due to LFI effects on CMB maps and power spectra after component separation and show that these effects are smaller than the CMB amplitude at all scales. We also assess the impact on non-Gaussianity studies and find it to be negligible. Finally, some residuals still appear in null maps from particular sky survey pairs, particularly at 30 GHz, suggesting possible straylight contamination due to an imperfect knowledge of the beam far sidelobes.« less

Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2017-12-01

Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

Active and Reactive Power Optimal Dispatch Associated with Load and DG Uncertainties in Active Distribution Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, F.; Song, X. H.; Zhang, Y.; Li, J. F.; Zhao, S. S.; Ma, W. Q.; Jia, Z. Y.

2017-05-01

In order to reduce the adverse effects of uncertainty on optimal dispatch in active distribution network, an optimal dispatch model based on chance-constrained programming is proposed in this paper. In this model, the active and reactive power of DG can be dispatched at the aim of reducing the operating cost. The effect of operation strategy on the cost can be reflected in the objective which contains the cost of network loss, DG curtailment, DG reactive power ancillary service, and power quality compensation. At the same time, the probabilistic constraints can reflect the operation risk degree. Then the optimal dispatch model is simplified as a series of single stage model which can avoid large variable dimension and improve the convergence speed. And the single stage model is solved using a combination of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and point estimate method (PEM). Finally, the proposed optimal dispatch model and method is verified by the IEEE33 test system.

A multi-product green supply chain under government supervision with price and demand uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafezalkotob, Ashkan; Zamani, Soma

2018-05-01

In this paper, a bi-level game-theoretic model is proposed to investigate the effects of governmental financial intervention on green supply chain. This problem is formulated as a bi-level program for a green supply chain that produces various products with different environmental pollution levels. The problem is also regard uncertainties in market demand and sale price of raw materials and products. The model is further transformed into a single-level nonlinear programming problem by replacing the lower-level optimization problem with its Karush-Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions. Genetic algorithm is applied as a solution methodology to solve nonlinear programming model. Finally, to investigate the validity of the proposed method, the computational results obtained through genetic algorithm are compared with global optimal solution attained by enumerative method. Analytical results indicate that the proposed GA offers better solutions in large size problems. Also, we conclude that financial intervention by government consists of green taxation and subsidization is an effective method to stabilize green supply chain members' performance.

Multi-Agent Patrolling under Uncertainty and Threats.

PubMed

Chen, Shaofei; Wu, Feng; Shen, Lincheng; Chen, Jing; Ramchurn, Sarvapali D

2015-01-01

We investigate a multi-agent patrolling problem where information is distributed alongside threats in environments with uncertainties. Specifically, the information and threat at each location are independently modelled as multi-state Markov chains, whose states are not observed until the location is visited by an agent. While agents will obtain information at a location, they may also suffer damage from the threat at that location. Therefore, the goal of the agents is to gather as much information as possible while mitigating the damage incurred. To address this challenge, we formulate the single-agent patrolling problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) and propose a computationally efficient algorithm to solve this model. Building upon this, to compute patrols for multiple agents, the single-agent algorithm is extended for each agent with the aim of maximising its marginal contribution to the team. We empirically evaluate our algorithm on problems of multi-agent patrolling and show that it outperforms a baseline algorithm up to 44% for 10 agents and by 21% for 15 agents in large domains.

On Instability of Geostrophic Current with Linear Vertical Shear at Length Scales of Interleaving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzmina, N. P.; Skorokhodov, S. L.; Zhurbas, N. V.; Lyzhkov, D. A.

2018-01-01

The instability of long-wave disturbances of a geostrophic current with linear velocity shear is studied with allowance for the diffusion of buoyancy. A detailed derivation of the model problem in dimensionless variables is presented, which is used for analyzing the dynamics of disturbances in a vertically bounded layer and for describing the formation of large-scale intrusions in the Arctic basin. The problem is solved numerically based on a high-precision method developed for solving fourth-order differential equations. It is established that there is an eigenvalue in the spectrum of eigenvalues that corresponds to unstable (growing with time) disturbances, which are characterized by a phase velocity exceeding the maximum velocity of the geostrophic flow. A discussion is presented to explain some features of the instability.

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

Trinification, the hierarchy problem, and inverse seesaw neutrino masses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cauet, Christophe; Paes, Heinrich; Wiesenfeldt, Soeren

2011-05-01

In minimal trinification models light neutrino masses can be generated via a radiative seesaw mechanism, where the masses of the right-handed neutrinos originate from loops involving Higgs and fermion fields at the unification scale. This mechanism is absent in models aiming at solving or ameliorating the hierarchy problem, such as low-energy supersymmetry, since the large seesaw scale disappears. In this case, neutrino masses need to be generated via a TeV-scale mechanism. In this paper, we investigate an inverse seesaw mechanism and discuss some phenomenological consequences.

Exploring image data assimilation in the prospect of high-resolution satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verron, J. A.; Duran, M.; Gaultier, L.; Brankart, J. M.; Brasseur, P.

2016-02-01

Many recent works show the key importance of studying the ocean at fine scales including the meso- and submesoscales. Satellite observations such as ocean color data provide informations on a wide range of scales but do not directly provide information on ocean dynamics. Satellite altimetry provide informations on the ocean dynamic topography (SSH) but so far with a limited resolution in space and even more, in time. However, in the near future, high-resolution SSH data (e.g. SWOT) will give a vision of the dynamic topography at such fine space resolution. This raises some challenging issues for data assimilation in physical oceanography: develop reliable methodology to assimilate high resolution data, make integrated use of various data sets including biogeochemical data, and even more simply, solve the challenge of handling large amont of data and huge state vectors. In this work, we propose to consider structured information rather than pointwise data. First, we take an image data assimilation approach in studying the feasibility of inverting tracer observations from Sea Surface Temperature and/or Ocean Color datasets, to improve the description of mesoscale dynamics provided by altimetric observations. Finite Size Lyapunov Exponents are used as an image proxy. The inverse problem is formulated in a Bayesian framework and expressed in terms of a cost function measuring the misfits between the two images. Second, we explore the inversion of SWOT-like high resolution SSH data and more especially the various possible proxies of the actual SSH that could be used to control the ocean circulation at various scales. One focus is made on controlling the subsurface ocean from surface only data. A key point lies in the errors and uncertainties that are associated to SWOT data.

Low energy peripheral scaling in nucleon-nucleon scattering and uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz Simo, I.; Amaro, J. E.; Ruiz Arriola, E.; Navarro Pérez, R.

2018-03-01

We analyze the peripheral structure of the nucleon-nucleon interaction for LAB energies below 350 MeV. To this end we transform the scattering matrix into the impact parameter representation by analyzing the scaled phase shifts (L + 1/2) δ JLS (p) and the scaled mixing parameters (L + 1/2)ɛ JLS (p) in terms of the impact parameter b = (L + 1/2)/p. According to the eikonal approximation, at large angular momentum L these functions should become an universal function of b, independent on L. This allows to discuss in a rather transparent way the role of statistical and systematic uncertainties in the different long range components of the two-body potential. Implications for peripheral waves obtained in chiral perturbation theory interactions to fifth order (N5LO) or from the large body of NN data considered in the SAID partial wave analysis are also drawn from comparing them with other phenomenological high-quality interactions, constructed to fit scattering data as well. We find that both N5LO and SAID peripheral waves disagree more than 5σ with the Granada-2013 statistical analysis, more than 2σ with the 6 statistically equivalent potentials fitting the Granada-2013 database and about 1σ with the historical set of 13 high-quality potentials developed since the 1993 Nijmegen analysis.

Quantum issues in optical communication. [noise reduction in signal reception

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennedy, R. S.

1973-01-01

Various approaches to the problem of controlling quantum noise, the dominant noise in an optical communications system, are discussed. It is shown that, no matter which way the problem is approached, there always remain uncertainties. These uncertainties exist because, to date, only very few communication problems have been solved in their full quantum form.

OARE flight maneuvers and calibration measurements on STS-58

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blanchard, Robert C.; Nicholson, John Y.; Ritter, James R.; Larman, Kevin T.

1994-01-01

The Orbital Acceleration Research Experiment (OARE), which has flown on STS-40, STS-50, and STS-58, contains a three axis accelerometer with a single, nonpendulous, electrostatically suspended proofmass which can resolve accelerations to the nano-g level. The experiment also contains a full calibration station to permit in situ bias and scale factor calibration. This on-orbit calibration capability eliminates the large uncertainty of ground-based calibrations encountered with accelerometers flown in the past on the orbiter, thus providing absolute acceleration measurement accuracy heretofore unachievable. This is the first time accelerometer scale factor measurements have been performed on orbit. A detailed analysis of the calibration process is given along with results of the calibration factors from the on-orbit OARE flight measurements on STS-58. In addition, the analysis of OARE flight maneuver data used to validate the scale factor measurements in the sensor's most sensitive range is also presented. Estimates on calibration uncertainties are discussed. This provides bounds on the STS-58 absolute acceleration measurements for future applications.

Spin determination at the Large Hadron Collider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yavin, Itay

The quantum field theory describing the Electroweak sector demands some new physics at the TeV scale in order to unitarize the scattering of longitudinal W bosons. If this new physics takes the form of a scalar Higgs boson then it is hard to understand the huge hierarchy of scales between the Electroweak scale ˜ TeV and the Planck scale ˜ 1019 GeV. This is known as the Naturalness problem. Normally, in order to solve this problem, new particles, in addition to the Higgs boson, are required to be present in the spectrum below a few TeV. If such particles are indeed discovered at the Large Hadron Collider it will become important to determine their spin. Several classes of models for physics beyond the Electroweak scale exist. Determining the spin of any such newly discovered particle could prove to be the only means of distinguishing between these different models. In the first part of this thesis; we present a thorough discussion regarding such a measurement. We survey the different potentially useful channels for spin determination and a detailed analysis of the most promising channel is performed. The Littlest Higgs model offers a way to solve the Hierarchy problem by introduring heavy partners to Standard Model particles with the same spin and quantum numbers. However, this model is only good up to ˜ 10 TeV. In the second part of this thesis we present an extension of this model into a strongly coupled theory above ˜ 10 TeV. We use the celebrated AdS/CFT correspondence to calculate properties of the low-energy physics in terms of high-energy parameters. We comment on some of the tensions inherent to such a construction involving a large-N CFT (or equivalently, an AdS space).

Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.

2014-12-01

Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.